For my view: No — Tuesday’s Senate setback is not the whole story.
The failed CLARITY Act vote is still the main short-term problem because it creates regulatory uncertainty for Circle. The Senate vote was 49–50, below the 60 votes needed.
But CRCL has other important factors:
Arc launched successfully with 100+ institutional/ecosystem builders.
Higher interest rates can support Circle’s reserve income.
USDC continues to grow, with $73.3B in circulation at Q2-end.
However, the market still needs to see real revenue and profit from Arc.
Bottom line: CRCL is facing a mix of regulatory risk + valuation risk + execution risk. Arc is promising, but it needs to prove it can become a profitable business.
Warsh Refuses Forward Guidance on Rates; October Decision Still in Doubt?
QQQ fell 2.50% and SPY 1.11% Friday as hotter CPI and PPI data fueled rate fears, while Warsh declined to preview the October decision. Bulls note no clear hike signal and see AI as a supply boost that could ease inflation; bears point to bond markets pricing a third hike and tech’s rate sensitivity. With the Oct. 27–28 meeting ahead, should investors hold QQQ, rotate into SPY value sectors, or reduce exposure?
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