Kentzw
09-18

🔥 FED HIKED. STOCKS DIDN’T CARE.

That’s what caught my attention Thursday.

The Fed just raised rates 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, with policymakers still signalling another hike could come this year.

Yet stocks ripped higher:

🚀 Nasdaq +1.69%

📈 S&P 500 +1.14%

📉 10Y Treasury yield back to ~4.93%

🛢️ Brent crude ~1% lower

And jobless claims came in at just 196K, pointing to continued labour-market resilience. 

So what is the market actually saying?

Maybe the trade isn’t “Fed is dovish.”

Maybe it’s:

“As long as oil and long-term yields keep coming down, investors can look through the hike.”

But here’s the catch 👀

Markets were still pricing about a 53% chance of another October hike on Thursday. 

Is this the start of a bigger risk-on move, or are investors getting too comfortable with the Fed’s hawkish message?

Indexes Flat, But Where Were the Gains?
Friday was quarterly triple witching - index futures, index options and single-stock options expiring at once. The index barely moved: QQQ +0.63% to $721.45, SPY roughly flat at $761.69. Underneath, it split. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose nearly 3% while the megacaps went the other way: Meta -2.43% to $665.75 on no company news, Oracle -1.98% to $147.61, handing back a third of Thursday's 5.19%, Apple -0.26% to $336.13. On an expiry day the index print is part mechanics, not all opinion. The split underneath is what traded. Does a flat tape on triple witching tell you anything?
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Comments

  • HunterGame
    09-18
    HunterGame
    This looks more like yield relief than a dovish pivot. If the 10Y stays under 5% and oil chills, risk can run, but a 53% hike odds setup still feels a bit too comfy
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