T184_Options
09-25 09:26

From Leaders to Laggards: Is Memory Waiting on Micron?

Wednesday gave back Tuesday's gains. Rising yields hit high-multiple names first, and memory had run the hardest.

Micron reports after the close on September 30 (4 AM, October 1 in Singapore). Its own guidance for the quarter:

Revenue of $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion

Gross margin of about 86%

Earnings per share of $31, plus or minus $1

The bull case is contracts. There are 16 take-or-pay agreements with about $100 billion in minimum revenue, and HBM4 is ramping twice as fast as HBM3E. There's also a catch in the calendar: this quarter runs 14 weeks, one more than the prior quarter.

The bear case is expectations. Fiscal 2027 earnings are already estimated at $156.53. Guidance language matters more than the quarter itself, and any softening on HBM pricing could trigger a sell-the-news reaction even on a beat.

How I trade it with sell puts

Blackout. Micron is inside my 7-day earnings blackout, so no new puts until after the print.

Volatility. Implied volatility usually collapses the morning after earnings. My IV-to-historical-volatility gate (at least 1.2×) often fails right then, so I wait for it to reset.

Strikes. A sell-the-news drop brings my two strike anchors together: the one standard deviation floor and the key moving average × 0.98. That's usually when a strike inside my 0.15 to 0.25 delta range becomes possible.

Size. One $1,000 put secures $100,000. Micron isn't on my core list, so it gets the 2% cap.

Correlation. Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix fell together on Wednesday. I treat them as one trade.

Would a strong print end the pullback? Only if the guidance does. Let Micron speak first, then the rules decide.

Educational only, not investment advice. Options carry significant risk.

$MU $SNDK

From Leaders to Laggards — Are Memory Stocks Waiting on Micron?
Memory gave back Wednesday what it made Tuesday: SanDisk -3.73% to $1,816.57, SK Hynix -3.12% to $189.28, Micron -2.22% to $1,071.88. Rising yields hit high-multiple assets first, and memory had run hardest. The test is next week: Micron reports after the close on Sept 30 ET, with the quarter's revenue and gross margin, HBM4 shipments, order coverage and the 2027 outlook in focus. Bulls say price hikes and locked orders predate the print, so it only confirms them; bears say prices already assume a strong 2027 — one soft notch costs more than 3%. Would a strong print end the pullback?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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