The market setup is getting more nuanced.
It’s no longer just about whether risk assets are bullish or bearish. Rates, the dollar, positioning and valuation are starting to matter more.
💵 1. US Dollar
I’m watching for upside risk in the dollar.
Technical momentum, sentiment, positioning, macro conditions and Treasury yields are becoming more supportive, while policy shifts and geopolitical risks could add another layer of volatility.
🇺🇸 2. US Treasuries
The contrarian bullish case remains compelling:
• Cheap valuations
• Extremely bearish sentiment
• Crowded positioning
But for now, it stays on watch as macro headwinds remain and the technical picture becomes increasingly fragile.
🌎 3. EM Fixed Income
Still neutral.
Higher inflation and rates create downside risk for EM sovereign bonds, while valuations and sentiment haven't reset enough and credit spreads still look relatively complacent.
💻 4. Software Stocks
This remains one of the more constructive areas.
Software has seen a major reset in valuations and positioning, while earnings expectations remain relatively solid.
Bitcoin has followed a similar path, making the broader reset in growth assets worth watching.
📈 5. Tactical Asset Allocation
The overall positioning remains slightly tilted toward growth assets, but with an important distinction:
Neutral equities > commodities and REITs
That preference is being funded by an underweight to cash, while maintaining a mildly bullish view on bonds.
Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you.
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