苏36
10-05
Q3 was less a stock-market crash than a warning from the bond market.

U.S. equities largely treaded water as the AI trade lost momentum, while software and mega-cap growth helped offset weakness in semiconductor equipment names such as $Lam Research(LRCX)$, $KLA Corporation(KLAC)$ and $Broadcom(AVGO)$. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ stood out, gaining more than 33% as fears of a “SaaS-pocalypse” faded.

The bigger story was bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to around 5.29%, while the 30-year reached 5.62%—levels not seen in decades.

Then came the Fed’s message: inflation remains too high. In September, Kevin Warsh delivered the first 25-bp hike since 2023, taking rates to 3.75%-4.00%.

My takeaway: Q4 may be less about chasing AI and more about earnings versus the cost of capital. If yields stay above 5%, even great companies must prove their valuations can justify it.

@Capital_Insights [微笑]

@Capital_Insights：Sarah Hansen: 7 Charts on Q3 Market Highlights
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