Q3 ended with a strange combination: equities remained resilient, but the underlying macro picture became more fragile. Tech and AI infrastructure continue to lead, yet higher long-term Treasury yields are tightening financial conditions and challenging elevated valuations.

The key signal is the labor market. September payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. Meanwhile, core PCE cooled to 3.0%. That combination strengthens the case for a less hawkish Fed—but it also raises recession risks.

This week, ISM Services, FOMC minutes and consumer sentiment matter more than headline index moves. Investors should watch whether services demand and employment are weakening.

My focus: AI infrastructure remains the strongest structural trade, but cash flow, valuation and interest-rate sensitivity matter more in Q4. A weaker economy may eventually help rate-sensitive tech, but not if earnings expectations collapse first.

@TigerObserver