The market enters October at a critical crossroads. September’s extremely weak payroll growth and softer PCE inflation have sharply reduced expectations for another Fed hike, giving technology and growth stocks renewed support.

However, rising Treasury yields remain the biggest threat. With the 10-year yield still above 5.2%, expensive growth stocks face increasing valuation pressure. This creates a market where good economic news may not automatically mean higher prices.

This week, investors should watch ISM Services, FOMC minutes and corporate earnings guidance closely. A resilient economy combined with cooling inflation would strengthen the soft-landing narrative.

My view: stay bullish, but selective. AI infrastructure, semiconductors and quality growth remain attractive, but Q4’s next major move must increasingly be supported by real earnings growth—not simply expectations of Fed rate cuts.

@TigerObserver [思考]