苏36
10-08 12:38
The biggest mistake investors can make in the 2026 midterms is betting on red or blue instead of betting on policy.

History is encouraging: the S&P 500 has averaged roughly 6.6% in Q4 of midterm years, and has posted positive returns in the 12 months after every midterm since 1950.

But 2026 is different. With the 10-year Treasury near 5.3%, elevated valuations and massive AI capex, rates and earnings may matter more than election headlines.

My focus would be on AI infrastructure, power and defense. A divided Congress could actually be constructive by limiting major policy shocks, while a Republican sweep could favor deregulation, energy and AI infrastructure.

The real trade isn't Republicans vs Democrats.

It's policy uncertainty vs. policy clarity.

For me: A — AI & Technology, but only companies with earnings growth strong enough to survive higher rates.

@WallStreet_Tiger [正经]

Last Speech Before Blackout: What Will Warsh Say?
Fed Chair Warsh speaks in Bangkok on October 16 Beijing time, the last official comment before the FOMC blackout ahead of the October 27–28 meeting. Markets price about 80% odds of no move in October and similar odds of a December hike: QQQ closed Thursday -1.34% at $747.58, SPY -0.42% at $773.93. On October 7 the 10-year hit 5.366% and the 30-year 5.728%, both highest since 2002. Bulls say the hold is priced and a non-hawkish speech lifts an overhang; bears say term premium and fiscal imbalances drive the long end, and the Fed can't fix either. What do you want to hear from Warsh?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment