Hakunayourtatas
10-09 16:51
Replying to @Tracccy:Couldn't agree more! Right now IV is pumping up option prices, but once the market calms down, theta will do its work. Holding the line at $11.72—if it breaks, I'm pulling the emergency brake! 😅//@Tracccy:Theta decay should start showing up once vol stops expanding, but that Nov window still needs weekly checks into expiry. Below 11.72 this gets ugly fast
@Hakunayourtatas：$CIFR DIAGONAL 261120/261009 PUT 13.0/PUT 18.0$ $CIFR DIAGONAL 261120/261009 PUT 13.0/PUT 18.0$ Red across the screens, living on prayers and coffee beans! [Bless] 1️⃣ Why am I making this trade now? Lowering Assignment Basis Without Excess Capital Outlay: Similar to rolling the 19 strike, I am unwilling to take assignment at $18.00 when CIFR is trading near $13.50. By paying a $3.11 debit to roll the short put down to the $13.00 strike (expiry 20 Nov), I reduce my potential assigned cost basis to $16.11 ($13.00 strike + $3.11 debit). Controlling Margin Debt Over Direct Share Purchases: Buying shares outright at $13.50 or accepting assignment at $18.00 would significantly expand my negative cash balance (-$47k) and overall account leverage (1.43x). Rolling down for a controlled debit absorbs an upfront cash charge while capping downside exposure and pushing the decision window out to late November. Sector-Wide Macro Selloff: The underlying operational thesis for CIFR remains intact. The drawdown is macro-driven—fuelled by rising long-term Treasury yields, sector-wide fears over AI/HPC buildout financing costs, and broader crypto weakness—rather than company-specific structural failure. 2️⃣ What’s my plan from here? Technical Setup & Rebound Expectations: Key Support Zone: Watching the $12.80–$13.00 level closely (tagged low of $12.88). The 52-week low near $11.72 remains the ultimate line in the sand. Oversold Reversion Target: Daily RSI and Williams %R sit in deep oversold territory at the lower Bollinger Band. I am looking for a relief bounce back toward primary overhead resistance at $15.00–$15.50. Ongoing Management & Next Actions: Letting Theta Work: With both positions now set at the $13.00 strike for 20 Nov, I will allow time decay to erode option value as the oversold condition resets. Relief Rally Management: If CIFR rebounds into the $15.50–$16.50 range, I will evaluate closing out these short puts at a gain or selling covered calls / call spreads to recover the $7.25 combined debit paid on the rolls. Invalidation / Risk Level: A decisive close below $11.70 (52-week low) on heavy volume will trigger a full review of total position exposure to manage margin capacity.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment