Hakunayourtatas
10-09 23:33
Replying to @CornellRudolph:10Y yield fear hits un-funded debt, but CIFR's core HPC buildouts are already locked into fixed-rate project notes. At ~$13.50, the market prices their 5.3+ GW pipeline at zero relative to ~$793M in projected HPC NOI. Massive gap vs Wall Street’s $28 target—prime setup for a bounce! 🎯//@CornellRudolph:10Y at 5.35% is the bigger problem here. For a leveraged buildout name like CIFR, oversold can bounce, but debt cost keeps the ceiling low.
@Hakunayourtatas：$CIFR DIAGONAL 261120/261009 PUT 13.0/PUT 19.0$ Blood on the streets, almost peed in my sheets! [LOL] 1️⃣ Why am I making this trade now? Macro Deleveraging, Not Operational Breakdown: CIFR's drop from $19 down to ~$13.50 is driven by macro yield pressure (10Y yield spiking to ~5.35%) and sector-wide fears over debt costs for AI/HPC buildouts, alongside broader crypto weakness. Nothing fundamental has broken regarding their site buildouts or ERCOT pipeline. Managing Margin & Lowering Cost Basis: With $47k in negative cash balance and leverage at 1.43x, buying 1,000 shares outright at current market prices would over-extend margin debt. Rolling the 19 strike short put down to the 13 strike (expiry 20 Nov) for a $4.14 debit effectively lowers my assignment break-even to $17.14 ($13 strike + $4.14 debit). Avoiding Bad Assignment: Rather than getting assigned at $19 while the stock trades around $13.50, paying the debit to roll down and out allows me to stay in the trade, reduce downside risk, and give the position time to recover while managing portfolio leverage. 2️⃣ What’s my plan from here? Technicals & Support Levels to Watch: Key Support: The $12.80–$13.00 zone marks critical support (yesterday's low of $12.88). The 52-week low sits around $11.72. Resistance / Bounce Targets: Immediate overhead resistance sits at $15.50 (prior support break), followed by $17.00. Indicators: RSI and Williams %R are deep in oversold territory at the lower Bollinger Band, pointing to a high probability of a short-term relief bounce toward the $15.00–$15.50 zone. Position Management Rules: Holding/Rolling: If CIFR stabilizes above $13.00, I will hold the 13 Put through October/November to let time decay (theta) work as the oversold condition resets. Adding Equity / Selling Puts: If cash flow permits or margin debt decreases, I will consider writing lower delta cash-secured puts around the $11.50–$12.00 strike (near 52-week lows) or even buying the shares outright. Covered Calls: Should a relief rally push the stock back above $16.50–$17.00, I will evaluate selling calls or rolling the put higher/closing for a profit as IV drops. Reassessment Trigger: A decisive daily close below $11.70 (52-week low) on high volume would signal structural weakness, requiring a reassessment of total position exposure.
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