Tom Yuen: Exploring Opportunities with Derivatives, Including Futures

TigerClub
10-16
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  • Basic Concepts and Core Rules of Futures

    • Origin and Essence of Futures: Futures are standardized forward contracts regulated by formal exchanges, originally created to solve the default risk problem of unregulated over-the-counter forward agreements.

    • Core Parameters of Standardized Contracts: Each futures contract has uniformly defined parameters set by the exchange, including contract size, initial margin, minimum price increment, trading hours and expiry rules.

    • Margin and Forced Liquidation Mechanism: Futures use 3% to 5% margin leverage. If account balance drops below the maintenance margin level, traders will receive a margin call, and positions will be forcibly liquidated if no additional funds are added.

    • Two-Way Trading Mechanism: traders buy first then sell to profit from price rises, and sell first then buy back to profit from price falls, no underlying asset holding is required.

  • Core Principles and Correct Cognition for Futures Trading

    • Essence of Trading Activities: Anliora Leong states that futures trading is essentially a game of price direction judgment, there is no 100% win rate strategy, and all trading results follow probability rules.

    • Two Non-Negotiable Golden Rules

      • The first rule is to never trade against the established market trend, always confirm if the market is in up, down or sideways mode before opening a position.

      • The second rule is to cut losses immediately once a position is wrong, and never use continuous additional position to average down the cost of losing trades.

      • Attribute of Leverage: Leverage itself is neither good nor bad, it only amplifies both potential profit and loss equally. Traders should choose contract sizes that match their actual risk bearing capacity.

      • Difference Between Trading and Investment: Trading focuses on short-term operations, profits from both up and down moves, and requires strict stop loss; investment focuses on long-term holding, only profits from upward moves, and allows regular investment to average cost.

  • Practical Operation Methods and Reference Cases

    • Entry Path for New Traders: New traders do not need to learn unfamiliar products from scratch, they can start with products they already know well such as gold or stock indices, and choose contracts with sufficient liquidity.

    • Basic Fibonacci Trading Framework: The shared basic strategy identifies support levels with impulsive upward moves, enters positions when price retraces to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, and uses a structured 80/20 position splitting method.

    • Advantages of 80/20 Position Splitting: 80% of the position is closed at the first target to lock in most of the profit, the remaining 20% is kept to capture potential extra gains, which greatly reduces psychological pressure during trading.

    • Real Student Operation Cases: Multiple student cases are shared, including single contract trades with $2000 profit, and multi-position trades with over $3 million profit within 10 days, with a reminder not to blindly copy large position sizes.

  • Industry Changes and Follow-up Arrangements

  • Core Industry Development Trends: AI tools are widely used for strategy generation and case analysis, single-stock futures are re-launched, and US market trading hours will be extended in the near future.

  • Free Public Follow-up Channel: The host releases weekly market analysis videos on his public social account around lunchtime every Saturday, all attendees can follow the channel for free public content.

  • Paid Advanced Community Service: A monthly paid practical community service is launched, including twice weekly case analysis live sessions. New members need to complete basic pre-learning to master professional terms before joining live discussions.

Trading is exactly the same as gambling. A professional trader treats it like a professional gambler.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • Jerry Lam
    10-16
    Jerry Lam
    Win 35 Tiger-coins
    **我最认同这场培训强调的风险管理,但对“交易和赌博一模一样”这个观点,我认为需要进一步区分。**

    短线交易和职业赌博确实有相似之处:单次结果存在不确定性,长期表现取决于胜率、盈亏比和仓位管理。但专业交易并非单纯猜涨跌,而是寻找具有正期望收益的交易机会。

    **我认为最值得学习的是三个原则:**

    ① **顺势交易。** 不要因为价格跌得多就盲目抄底,先判断趋势是否真正发生变化。

    ② **严格控制亏损。** 杠杆会同时放大盈利和亏损,不能靠不断加仓来掩盖错误判断。

    ③ **重视盈亏比。** 即使胜率只有40%,只要平均盈利是平均亏损的2倍,理论上仍可能获得正期望收益,但还要扣除手续费和滑点。

    至于斐波那契38.2%回撤和80/20分批止盈,我认为可以作为交易框架,但不能把它们当成具有必然预测能力的规律,必须经过历史回测和实盘验证。

    **一句话总结:决定交易者能否长期生存的,不是某一次赚了多少钱,而是能否在控制风险的前提下,持续执行具有统计优势的策略。**

    尤其是期货这种高杠杆产品,先学会不被市场淘汰,比急着追求高收益更重要。

  • 吉3186
    10-17
    吉3186
    Win 30 Tiger-coins
    这次培训让我最大的收获是:期货交易不是比谁赚得快,而是比谁能长期控制风险。 杠杆可以放大利润,也会放大亏损,新手最容易犯的错误就是仓位过大、逆势交易,以及亏损后不断加仓摊平成本。
    我认同顺势交易和严格止损的原则,但斐波那契回撤、80/20分批止盈等方法,并不保证每次都能盈利,仍需要经过验证和风险控制。
    至于期货与赌博,我认为两者有相似之处,都涉及概率和不确定性;但专业交易与纯粹赌博的区别,在于是否有经过验证的交易优势、严格的资金管理和持续的交易纪律。
    对于新手,我的建议是先学习、再模拟、最后小仓位实战。不要因为看到别人赚几千甚至几百万美元,就急着加大杠杆。先学会保护本金,才有机会在市场中走得更远!
  • He Man
    10-17
    He Man
    Win 10 Tiger-coins
    Thanks for sharing. The part of 80/20 is a good reminder.
  • highhand
    10-17
    highhand
    Win 10 Tiger-coins
    trading higher chance of winning than if you go casino and play poker
  • Lanceljx
    10-17
    Lanceljx
    Win 25 Tiger-coins
    The comparison between a professional trader and a professional gambler is interesting, but I think the key word is professional.

    Neither expects to win every trade or every bet. Instead, the objective is to find situations where the probabilities are favourable, control how much capital is exposed, and survive inevitable losing streaks. A strategy with an edge can still produce several losses in a row.

    That is why the two golden rules resonate with me. Following the trend improves the probability of being on the right side of momentum, while cutting losses prevents one incorrect call from overwhelming many successful ones.

    The biggest lesson is that being right is less important than managing what happens when you are wrong. Leverage makes that discipline even more important in futures.

    A professional trader should therefore think in probabilities, expected returns and risk limits, not certainty. That is where the comparison with professional gambling makes sense to me.

  • juleseeney
    10-18 16:06
    juleseeney
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    well worth a read!!
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