$Uber(UBER)$ is expanding far beyond rides. Freight, subscriptions, and grocery and retail delivery give the company more ways to grow — while rising free cash flow adds to the bull case. 📈
🐂 What’s Driving the Bull Case?
🚚 Uber Freight: A second major market in trucking and logistics, giving Uber exposure beyond passenger mobility.
🌍 International Expansion: New and underpenetrated markets offer room to grow.
⭐ Uber One: Subscribers tend to order more frequently, helping strengthen customer loyalty and retention.
🛍️ Delivery Beyond Restaurants: Grocery and retail are expanding Uber’s delivery opportunity beyond takeout.
💰 The Cash Flow Story
Uber’s reported margins:
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Gross margin: 42%
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EBIT margin: 12%
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Net margin: 18%
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Free cash flow margin: 18%
📊 Growth Since 2022
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Revenue: +73%
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Free cash flow: +2,494%
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Users: +59%
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Gross bookings (GMV): +87%
The standout is free cash flow, which has surged from a much smaller base. Revenue, users, and gross bookings have also grown substantially.
🔮 What Could 2028 Look Like?
Analyst estimates point to:
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Revenue: $76.3B | 14% CAGR
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EPS: $5.81 | 10% CAGR
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Free cash flow: $15B | 17% CAGR
If Uber delivers, continued cash flow growth could strengthen its investment case.
🎯 Is the Valuation Attractive?
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Trailing P/FCF: 14
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Projected 2028 P/FCF: 10
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Low price target: $70 — around the current reference price
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Consensus target: $101 — roughly 30% upside
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High price target: $150 — roughly 53% upside
$UBER combines a growing core platform with several expansion opportunities and strong cash flow generation. The key question is whether Freight, subscriptions, and new delivery categories can keep growth going without sacrificing profitability.
The bull case is compelling — but execution and the assumptions behind those 2028 estimates still matter. 🐂📈
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