🐯 Coinbase: Bitcoin Is Recovering. Why Are Trading Volumes Still Quiet?

Hey Tigers 🐯!

Can $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ recover before trading activity does?

US Tiger Securities’ Bo Pei maintains BUY and a $250 target in his October 20, 2026 report.

📊 A Recovery With a Lag

Bitcoin has rebounded since July, yet third-quarter industry spot volume fell 6.5% sequentially to $2.44tn. Coinbase’s tracked spot volume declined 2% to $140.9bn.

📌 Key Insight: The analyst sees this divergence as consistent with an early recovery.

Source: US Tiger Securities Research; original report chart.

💰 What the Earnings Preview Shows

3Q26 forecast	US Tiger estimate
Revenue	$1.19bn
Adjusted EBITDA	$247mn
Adjusted EBITDA margin	20.80%

The EBITDA forecast falls 13% from $285mn, mainly reflecting higher marketing spending.

Source: US Tiger Securities Research; original report chart.

🔎 Why Maintain $250?

The target uses 21.5x estimated 2027 Adjusted EBITDA of $2.91bn. The thesis centers on earnings sensitivity to the next crypto upswing and a broader product offering.

Source: US Tiger Securities Research; original report chart.

⚠️ What Could Challenge the Thesis?

Regulation, cybersecurity, crypto prices and competition remain key risks.

💬 Your Turn, Tigers

Which matters more for your next decision?

A. Price momentum
B. Trading participation
C. Earnings delivery

Tell us which signal you would watch first. 🐯

Source: US Tiger Securities, October 20, 2026. Charts reproduced from Figures 3, 4 and 6. Forecasts are analyst estimates. For discussion; not investment advice.

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Comments

Shyon
10-21 13:46
Shyon
I would watch earnings delivery first, followed by trading participation and price momentum. Bitcoin's recovery is encouraging, but weaker spot trading volume suggests that market sentiment has not fully translated into stronger business activity for $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ .

I think Coinbase has long-term potential as crypto adoption expands and its product offerings diversify. However, higher marketing expenses and earnings volatility remain concerns. The $250 price target is worth considering, but I would not rely on analyst forecasts alone when making investment decisions.

For me, confirmation matters more than anticipation. I would look for improving trading volumes, sustainable revenue growth and stronger profitability before becoming more bullish. A crypto rebound could support COIN, but I prefer to see the fundamentals catch up before chasing the momentum.

@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @Capital_Insights
苏36
10-21 19:56
苏36
My pick: C. Earnings delivery.

Bitcoin’s recovery makes $COIN worth watching, but rising crypto prices do not automatically translate into stronger profits. The 6.5% quarterly decline in industry spot volume highlights the gap between market sentiment and actual trading activity.

What interests me more is Coinbase’s transformation beyond transaction fees. In Q2 2026, subscription and services revenue reached $555 million, accounting for 48% of net revenue. This diversification could help cushion weaker trading cycles.

However, the $250 target relies on 2027 earnings expectations, not guaranteed growth. Investors should watch customer activity, revenue mix, expense control, and forward guidance.

Coinbase’s Q3 results arrive on October 29.

My conclusion: Price momentum attracts traders, but earnings quality determines whether a recovery deserves a lasting valuation premium. I'd rather see profits improve before chasing the rebound.

@Capital_Insights [财迷]