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冯榕
2021-09-14
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冯榕
2021-06-11
Yidijimao
The concept of Hongmeng is booming, how far is the chicken feather?
冯榕
2021-05-16
You are a foolish man!
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In addition, the number of Harmony OS2 upgrade users has exceeded 10 million in 7 days, and it is expected to complete the previously established internal target of 300 million devices equipped with HarmonyOS by the end of this year, including 200 million Huawei mobile phones and 100 million other brand mobile phones.</p><p><h3>1</h3><h3><b>Android vs iOS, the only player in the operating system</b></h3>Among the current operating systems, the mainstream operating systems are Android and iOS, accounting for about 98% of the market share, and the rest is basically Windows phone. The previously flourishing Symbian and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>System, then with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>The decline of mobile phones has withdrawn from the competition.</p><p>And of this 98% market, Android accounts for 75%, and the rest is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>iOS. According to data from SensorTower at the beginning of the year, Apple's App Store revenue in 2020 reached US $73.2 billion, an increase of 30.3% from US $55.5 billion in 2019. Showing a strong gold-attracting power, even Buffett wants to buy Apple as the largest holding.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/220cfb1a357e521a9e808e05b8e8dc7d\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Android is an open source system,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Through the GMS developed by it, all products of the Android ecosystem are locked in its territory, firmly stuck at the entrance of Android general software traffic, forming a monopoly position. For example, Google's app store Play Store, Google's mailbox Gmail, Google Maps, video software YouTube and so on.</p><p>Then monetize advertisements through huge amounts of traffic. Although it was fined 4.34 billion euros by the European Union in 2018 for these binding behaviors, Google still directly monetized them by charging Android system license fees, ranging from 2.5 to 40 US dollars per mobile phone. Wait, if you bind Google Family Bucket by default, this fee can be waived.</p><p>Therefore, as the only operating system between users and machines, a substantial monopoly has been formed, and finally money can be collected through various methods.</p><p><b>No matter in the current mobile Internet era, the last PC era, or even the future Internet of Everything era, the operating system will be the most profitable business model, probably none of them.</b>Because of the powerful ecological power of the operating system, the commercial status is difficult to shake, and even other Internet giants are difficult to succeed. Therefore, they have made efforts in the field of automotive OS and future IOT ecosystem, hoping to seize the next era.</p><p>Speaking of Android, the current mainstream Android mobile phone manufacturers in China include Huawei, OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi. From 2017 to 2020, Huawei's smartphone shipments increased from 90 million units to 120 million units, becoming the top player in the Android camp.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c56ac00be7d10f9328d164480d2ab96\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, due to the reasons of the times, Huawei was forced to carry out the most difficult task of developing its own operating system.</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>The controversy of the shell system and the loss of voice in the Android camp</b></h3>Many people say that Hongmeng is the shell system of Android. Regarding the relationship between Hongmeng and Android,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Many masters above have fully discussed it. It is true that Hongmeng is not a self-developed operating system. It is developed based on AOSP (Android Open-Source Project), but a considerable part of it is independent code. In addition to the mobile OS, the Internet of Things part is indeed independent research and development.</p><p>According to Huawei's past history, even if some things were copied at the beginning (such as early switches), it has a way to eventually develop into an independent technology system. At present, HarmonyOS should be said to be still a transitional product. After all, it needs to be considered that many software developers will not invest too much manpower to support a new operating system.</p><p>Some people use the paradox of the ship of Theseus to describe this current controversy. The ship of Theseus was first recorded by Plutarch, and it described a ship that could sail at sea for hundreds of years, thanks to uninterrupted repairs and replacement parts. As soon as a board rots, it will be replaced, and so on, until all the functional parts are not the original ones.</p><p>The question is whether the resulting ship is still the original Theseus ship, or is it a completely different ship? If not the original ship, then at what point is it no longer the original ship?</p><p>As a product of a special era, the birth of Hongmeng has some tragic and heroic colors. We<b>We should not use technical cleanliness to discuss whether it is an Android case or not. As long as Google doesn't sue, I don't think we have to bother about it. We should bless it and hope it will achieve the greatest success.</b></p><p>But the question that follows is whether other manufacturers will follow suit, and will other Android phones such as Xiaomi OV choose to adopt the Hongmeng system?</p><p>I don't think this will happen for quite some time. Cooperating with Hongmeng is equivalent to having a bad relationship with Google. The domestic impact is not great, but overseas countries still rely heavily on Google's ecological GMS, and which mobile phone manufacturer is willing to give up overseas markets?</p><p>Secondly, if HarmonyOS is directly pre-installed, HarmonyOS is not yet open source (the open source is the foundation's OpenHarmony, similar to Android's ASOP), and the mobile phone Hongmeng must be equipped with Huawei's application market and hms. Everyone knows that domestic game channel servers are all 50-50 accounts. It is absolutely impossible to give such a large amount of profit to others, and it is also the biggest obstacle to preventing other mobile phone manufacturers from using mobile phones Hongmeng. Other mobile phone manufacturers will not invest resources in developing operating systems based on OpenHarmony in the short term.</p><p>Huawei, as the overlord that once occupied half of the domestic mobile phone market, no one wants to hold its lifeblood in the hands of friends. Imagine a scenario. If all mobile phone manufacturers use mobile phones Hongmeng, and Huawei lifts the ban for some reason, then Huawei in the domestic mobile phone industry is a referee + athlete at this time, and can easily achieve this by restricting other manufacturers' mobile phone systems. Advantages, at this time, it is too late for other mobile phone manufacturers to go back and pick up the Android magic changes they left behind.</p><p>Here's a point, why mobile phone manufacturers would rather give their lifeblood to Google. First of all, domestic Android has its own system and is not affected by Google. Even if Google disables gms and closed-source versions of Android 12 and later, each company can update it by itself to deal with it, which basically will not affect the domestic Android market.</p><p>Secondly, it is already a fact that all mobile phone manufacturers overseas have been choked by Google because of gms. Mobile phone manufacturers will no longer use mobile phone Hongmeng in China, adding another stuck neck to the domestic market.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>Can it rise just by touching the edge?</b></h3>Putting aside the technical aspects, let's look at the performance of the secondary market. The secondary market will not care about everything above. As long as three positive lines are needed, Xinyang can be changed.</p><p>This is the Hongmeng concept stock summarized by Tianfeng.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67632208a72103fb6381db8966e3804\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Let's take a look at some trends in the middle:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300598\">ArcherMind Technology</a>：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20598bd927347b0d16bcb537ca39b9d6\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Runhe Software:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5137d8383f1c3414d337fc54fe680d2a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Jiulian Technology:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/282de331496bc3a764adf2c7444ea3c4\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wanxing Technology:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad9fcb6cc3f92f582526eb3ab22c836\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Recently, Hongmeng concept stocks have been in this trend.</p><p>In fact, many Hongmeng concept stocks just say that the company has products in the Hongmeng system, which is the same reason as I said that I want to develop an Apple APP. Others just have some business dealings with Huawei. No one in such a big company as Huawei hasn't done any business dealings yet. However, the secondary market is so crazy.</p><p>With the sharp rise in stock prices, many companies have also issued warning announcements of abnormal stock price fluctuations. These companies are also very honest. From the announcement, we can basically draw the conclusion that Hongmeng's performance growth for these companies is limited.</p><p>For example, Runhe Software, which is also in the foundation, also issued an announcement. The fifth point in the middle also explains the cooperative relationship with Hongmeng, but the key point is that the company itself clearly stated that Hongmeng-related businesses account for a relatively small proportion of orders in hand and will not affect the company. Performance has a significant impact.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f2201fd9f9179fac6739a56cfc77143\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Another example<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688609\">Jiulian Technology</a>Announcement: At present, the company's investment and development based on the Hongmeng system, smart home products such as smart doorbells are in the product development stage and have not yet been launched, and relevant sales revenue has not been formed. There are uncertain factors in the future market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c86b0a8c09179965837cced43338574\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">I can only say that we bless Hongmeng, but some people want to use this concept to cut my leeks, no way!</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The concept of Hongmeng is booming, how far is the chicken feather?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe concept of Hongmeng is booming, how far is the chicken feather?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 09:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The original article was first published on June 10</b></p><p>Today, Huawei's Hongmeng concept has risen across the board, and the Hongmeng Index on Wind has risen by more than 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc037b4162526114358c3b3e89962c7\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Related concept stocks also have daily limit across the board, and many of them have a daily limit of 20% on the GEM.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5116d5d5ef3fe6f2e4abc14cf79bd55\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, Huawei is a member of the Hongmeng Open Source Foundation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300339\">Runhe Software</a>It rose 20%, while Chinasoft International rose 18.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65c85f8cce60503b9a6ca4a5bbf56ad3\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"771\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The market believes that these companies, as initial members of the foundation, are deeply involved in the infrastructure of the Hongmeng system, and will continue to participate in the management and investment of the entire open source community in the future, and will continue to benefit from it.</b></p><p>In terms of news, there are currently many banks and more than 30 securities firms that fully support Hongmeng. In addition, the number of Harmony OS2 upgrade users has exceeded 10 million in 7 days, and it is expected to complete the previously established internal target of 300 million devices equipped with HarmonyOS by the end of this year, including 200 million Huawei mobile phones and 100 million other brand mobile phones.</p><p><h3>1</h3><h3><b>Android vs iOS, the only player in the operating system</b></h3>Among the current operating systems, the mainstream operating systems are Android and iOS, accounting for about 98% of the market share, and the rest is basically Windows phone. The previously flourishing Symbian and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>System, then with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>The decline of mobile phones has withdrawn from the competition.</p><p>And of this 98% market, Android accounts for 75%, and the rest is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>iOS. According to data from SensorTower at the beginning of the year, Apple's App Store revenue in 2020 reached US $73.2 billion, an increase of 30.3% from US $55.5 billion in 2019. Showing a strong gold-attracting power, even Buffett wants to buy Apple as the largest holding.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/220cfb1a357e521a9e808e05b8e8dc7d\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Android is an open source system,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Through the GMS developed by it, all products of the Android ecosystem are locked in its territory, firmly stuck at the entrance of Android general software traffic, forming a monopoly position. For example, Google's app store Play Store, Google's mailbox Gmail, Google Maps, video software YouTube and so on.</p><p>Then monetize advertisements through huge amounts of traffic. Although it was fined 4.34 billion euros by the European Union in 2018 for these binding behaviors, Google still directly monetized them by charging Android system license fees, ranging from 2.5 to 40 US dollars per mobile phone. Wait, if you bind Google Family Bucket by default, this fee can be waived.</p><p>Therefore, as the only operating system between users and machines, a substantial monopoly has been formed, and finally money can be collected through various methods.</p><p><b>No matter in the current mobile Internet era, the last PC era, or even the future Internet of Everything era, the operating system will be the most profitable business model, probably none of them.</b>Because of the powerful ecological power of the operating system, the commercial status is difficult to shake, and even other Internet giants are difficult to succeed. Therefore, they have made efforts in the field of automotive OS and future IOT ecosystem, hoping to seize the next era.</p><p>Speaking of Android, the current mainstream Android mobile phone manufacturers in China include Huawei, OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi. From 2017 to 2020, Huawei's smartphone shipments increased from 90 million units to 120 million units, becoming the top player in the Android camp.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c56ac00be7d10f9328d164480d2ab96\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, due to the reasons of the times, Huawei was forced to carry out the most difficult task of developing its own operating system.</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>The controversy of the shell system and the loss of voice in the Android camp</b></h3>Many people say that Hongmeng is the shell system of Android. Regarding the relationship between Hongmeng and Android,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Many masters above have fully discussed it. It is true that Hongmeng is not a self-developed operating system. It is developed based on AOSP (Android Open-Source Project), but a considerable part of it is independent code. In addition to the mobile OS, the Internet of Things part is indeed independent research and development.</p><p>According to Huawei's past history, even if some things were copied at the beginning (such as early switches), it has a way to eventually develop into an independent technology system. At present, HarmonyOS should be said to be still a transitional product. After all, it needs to be considered that many software developers will not invest too much manpower to support a new operating system.</p><p>Some people use the paradox of the ship of Theseus to describe this current controversy. The ship of Theseus was first recorded by Plutarch, and it described a ship that could sail at sea for hundreds of years, thanks to uninterrupted repairs and replacement parts. As soon as a board rots, it will be replaced, and so on, until all the functional parts are not the original ones.</p><p>The question is whether the resulting ship is still the original Theseus ship, or is it a completely different ship? If not the original ship, then at what point is it no longer the original ship?</p><p>As a product of a special era, the birth of Hongmeng has some tragic and heroic colors. We<b>We should not use technical cleanliness to discuss whether it is an Android case or not. As long as Google doesn't sue, I don't think we have to bother about it. We should bless it and hope it will achieve the greatest success.</b></p><p>But the question that follows is whether other manufacturers will follow suit, and will other Android phones such as Xiaomi OV choose to adopt the Hongmeng system?</p><p>I don't think this will happen for quite some time. Cooperating with Hongmeng is equivalent to having a bad relationship with Google. The domestic impact is not great, but overseas countries still rely heavily on Google's ecological GMS, and which mobile phone manufacturer is willing to give up overseas markets?</p><p>Secondly, if HarmonyOS is directly pre-installed, HarmonyOS is not yet open source (the open source is the foundation's OpenHarmony, similar to Android's ASOP), and the mobile phone Hongmeng must be equipped with Huawei's application market and hms. Everyone knows that domestic game channel servers are all 50-50 accounts. It is absolutely impossible to give such a large amount of profit to others, and it is also the biggest obstacle to preventing other mobile phone manufacturers from using mobile phones Hongmeng. Other mobile phone manufacturers will not invest resources in developing operating systems based on OpenHarmony in the short term.</p><p>Huawei, as the overlord that once occupied half of the domestic mobile phone market, no one wants to hold its lifeblood in the hands of friends. Imagine a scenario. If all mobile phone manufacturers use mobile phones Hongmeng, and Huawei lifts the ban for some reason, then Huawei in the domestic mobile phone industry is a referee + athlete at this time, and can easily achieve this by restricting other manufacturers' mobile phone systems. Advantages, at this time, it is too late for other mobile phone manufacturers to go back and pick up the Android magic changes they left behind.</p><p>Here's a point, why mobile phone manufacturers would rather give their lifeblood to Google. First of all, domestic Android has its own system and is not affected by Google. Even if Google disables gms and closed-source versions of Android 12 and later, each company can update it by itself to deal with it, which basically will not affect the domestic Android market.</p><p>Secondly, it is already a fact that all mobile phone manufacturers overseas have been choked by Google because of gms. Mobile phone manufacturers will no longer use mobile phone Hongmeng in China, adding another stuck neck to the domestic market.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>Can it rise just by touching the edge?</b></h3>Putting aside the technical aspects, let's look at the performance of the secondary market. The secondary market will not care about everything above. As long as three positive lines are needed, Xinyang can be changed.</p><p>This is the Hongmeng concept stock summarized by Tianfeng.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67632208a72103fb6381db8966e3804\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Let's take a look at some trends in the middle:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300598\">ArcherMind Technology</a>：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20598bd927347b0d16bcb537ca39b9d6\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Runhe Software:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5137d8383f1c3414d337fc54fe680d2a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Jiulian Technology:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/282de331496bc3a764adf2c7444ea3c4\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wanxing Technology:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad9fcb6cc3f92f582526eb3ab22c836\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Recently, Hongmeng concept stocks have been in this trend.</p><p>In fact, many Hongmeng concept stocks just say that the company has products in the Hongmeng system, which is the same reason as I said that I want to develop an Apple APP. Others just have some business dealings with Huawei. No one in such a big company as Huawei hasn't done any business dealings yet. However, the secondary market is so crazy.</p><p>With the sharp rise in stock prices, many companies have also issued warning announcements of abnormal stock price fluctuations. These companies are also very honest. From the announcement, we can basically draw the conclusion that Hongmeng's performance growth for these companies is limited.</p><p>For example, Runhe Software, which is also in the foundation, also issued an announcement. The fifth point in the middle also explains the cooperative relationship with Hongmeng, but the key point is that the company itself clearly stated that Hongmeng-related businesses account for a relatively small proportion of orders in hand and will not affect the company. Performance has a significant impact.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f2201fd9f9179fac6739a56cfc77143\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Another example<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688609\">Jiulian Technology</a>Announcement: At present, the company's investment and development based on the Hongmeng system, smart home products such as smart doorbells are in the product development stage and have not yet been launched, and relevant sales revenue has not been formed. There are uncertain factors in the future market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c86b0a8c09179965837cced43338574\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">I can only say that we bless Hongmeng, but some people want to use this concept to cut my leeks, no way!</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/469818\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce4570430c67a11700e7daf19b74e07","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","GOOG":"谷歌","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","GOOGL":"谷歌A","09086":"华夏纳指-U","03086":"华夏纳指"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/469818","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2142221374","content_text":"原文首发于6月10日\n今天华为鸿蒙概念全线崛起，万得上面的鸿蒙指数上涨了超过8%。\n\n相关概念股也是全线涨停，很多都是创业板20%的那种涨停。\n\n比如和华为同为鸿蒙开放源自开源基金会成员的润和软件上涨20%，中软国际上涨18.8%。\n\n市场认为这些公司作为基金会的初始成员，深度参与鸿蒙系统的基础搭建，未来将持续参与整个开源社区的管理和投入，会持续从中获益。\n在消息上面，目前有多家银行和超过30家的券商全面支持鸿蒙。另外Harmony OS2升级用户7天已破千万，有望完成之前内部既定的今年底鸿蒙操作系统搭载设备数量3亿台的目标，其中2亿台华为手机，1亿台其他品牌手机。\n1\n安卓 vs iOS，操作系统的独二玩家\n目前操作系统中，主流的就安卓和iOS，占了大约98%的市场份额，剩下的基本就是Windows phone了，而之前如日中天的塞班及黑莓系统，则随着诺基亚和黑莓手机的没落，退出了竞争行列。\n而在这98%的市场中，安卓占了75%，剩下的就是苹果的iOS了。根据SensorTower年初的数据，苹果App Store 2020年收入达到732亿美元，相比于比2019的555亿美元增了长30.3%。体现出了强大的吸金力，连巴菲特都要把苹果买成第一大重仓股。而安卓虽然是开源系统，但是谷歌通过其开发的GMS，将安卓生态的所有产品都锁定在其版图之中，牢牢卡住安卓通用软件流量的入口，形成了垄断地位。比如谷歌的应用商店Play Store，谷歌的邮箱Gmail，谷歌地图，视频软件油管等等。\n然后通过巨额流量进行广告变现，虽然因为这些绑定的行为在2018年遭到了欧盟43.4亿欧元的天价罚单，但谷歌仍然通过收取安卓系统许可费进行直接变现，每台手机2.5-40美金不等，如果默认绑定谷歌全家桶则可以豁免该项费用。\n所以作为用户和机器之间的唯一的操作系统，形成了实质性的垄断，最后都能通过各种方法把钱收上来。\n操作系统不论在现在的移动互联时代，还是上一个PC时代，甚至未来的万物互联时代，都将是最赚钱的商业模式，可能没有之一。因为操作系统的强大生态力量，商业地位难以撼动，连其他互联网巨头都难以成功。所以纷纷在汽车OS以及未来IOT生态领域发力，想抢占下一个时代。\n说回安卓，目前中国主流安卓手机的手机商包括华为、 OPPO、 vivo、 小米，其中2017年至2020年期间，华为智能手机出货量从0.9亿台增长至1.2亿台，成为了安卓阵营的头部玩家。但是后面由于时代的原因，华为被迫进行了最艰难的自己研发操作系统。\n2\n套壳系统的争议与安卓阵营的失声\n很多人说，鸿蒙就是安卓的套壳系统。关于鸿蒙和安卓的关系，知乎上面有很多大神已经进行了充分探讨，的确鸿蒙不是自主开发的操作系统，是基于 AOSP（Android Open-Source Project）开发的，但是也有相当部分是属于自主代码，除开手机OS，物联网部分确实是自主研发。\n根据华为以往历史，就算一开始抄了些东西（比如早期的交换机），但是它有办法最终发展成自主技术体系，而鸿蒙OS在目前应该说的确还是一个过渡期的产品，毕竟需要考虑到众多的软件开放商不会过多投入人力去专门支持一个新的操作系统。\n有人用特修斯之船悖论来描述现在的这种争议。特修斯之船最早出自普鲁塔克的记载，它描述的是一艘可以在海上航行几百年的船，归功于不间断的维修和替换部件。只要一块木板腐烂了，它就会被替换掉，以此类推，直到所有的功能部件都不是最开始的那些了。\n问题是，最终产生的这艘船是否还是原来的那艘特修斯之船，还是一艘完全不同的船？如果不是原来的船，那么在什么时候它不再是原来的船了？\n鸿蒙作为特殊时代的产物，鸿蒙的诞生拥有了一些悲情英雄的色彩，我们不应该用技术洁癖去探讨到底是不是安卓套壳，只要是谷歌不来起诉，我觉得都不必为这事烦扰，我们应该祝福它并希望它取得最大程度的成功。\n但随之而来的问题是，其他厂商跟不跟，小米OV等其他安卓机是否会选择采用鸿蒙系统？\n这个我觉得在相当的一段时间内都不会发生。和鸿蒙合作，等于和谷歌交恶，国内影响不大，但是海外还是非常依赖谷歌生态的GMS，而哪个手机厂商又愿意放弃海外市场呢？\n其次，如果直接预装HarmonyOS，HarmonyOS尚未开源（开源的是那个基金会的OpenHarmony，类似于安卓的ASOP），使用手机鸿蒙必然要搭载华为的应用市场和hms。大家都知道国内的游戏渠道服都是五五分账，这么一大笔利润决然不可能让给别人，也是阻拦其他手机厂使用手机鸿蒙的最大障碍。而其他手机厂商短期也不会投入资源去开发基于OpenHarmony的操作系统。\n华为作为曾经国内占据手机半壁江山的霸主，没有人愿意把命脉捏在友商手里。试想一个场景，如果所有的手机厂商都使用了手机鸿蒙，而华为因为某种原因解禁了，那么此时国内手机行业华为就是裁判员+运动员的身份，可以轻易通过限制其他厂家的手机系统来实现优势，此时其他手机厂商再想回头拾回丢下的安卓魔改为时已晚。\n这里说明一点，为什么手机厂宁愿把命脉交给谷歌呢。首先，国内的安卓自成体系，不受谷歌的影响，哪怕谷歌禁用gms和闭源安卓12以后的版本，各家也能自己更新去应对，基本不会对国内的安卓市场有影响。\n其次，海外因为gms的原因，所有手机厂都已经被谷歌掐住了脖子，这已经是事实了。手机厂不会再在国内使用手机鸿蒙，给国内的市场再添一个被卡住的脖子。\n3\n沾个边就能涨？\n抛开技术层面的东西，我们来看二级市场的表现。二级市场不会管上面的一切，只要三根阳线，就能改变信阳。\n这是天风总结的鸿蒙概念股。我们来看下中间的一些走势：\n诚迈科技：润和软件：九联科技：万兴科技：最近鸿蒙概念股都是这样的走势。\n其实很多鸿蒙概念股只是说公司旗下有产品入驻鸿蒙体系，这和我说我要开发一个苹果的APP是一样的道理。另一些只是和华为有些业务往来，华为这么大个公司谁还没点业务往来了。但是，二级市场就是如此疯狂。\n在股价大涨之下，很多公司也都发布了股价异常波动的提示公告。这些公司也很诚实，从公告中，我们可以基本得出这样的结论，鸿蒙对这些公司的业绩增长有限。\n比如同在基金会的润和软件也发布了公告，中间第五点，也说明了与鸿蒙的合作关系，但重点在于，公司自己明确表达鸿蒙相关业务在手订单占比较小，不会对公司业绩产生重大影响。又比如九联科技的公告：目前公司基于鸿蒙系统的投入开发，智慧门铃等智慧家庭产品，处在产品开发阶段还未上市，未形成相关销售收入，未来市场存在不确定因素。只能说，我们祝福鸿蒙，但有人想利用这个概念割我韭菜，没门！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09086":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"03086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192373816,"gmtCreate":1621153443135,"gmtModify":1704353443070,"author":{"id":"3475143061422691","authorId":"3475143061422691","name":"冯榕","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3475143061422691","authorIdStr":"3475143061422691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You are a foolish man!","listText":"You are a foolish man!","text":"You are a foolish man!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192373816","repostId":"2135898682","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":886739178,"gmtCreate":1631624499394,"gmtModify":1676530592545,"author":{"id":"3475143061422691","authorId":"3475143061422691","name":"冯榕","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3475143061422691","authorIdStr":"3475143061422691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"**","listText":"**","text":"**","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886739178","repostId":"2167055694","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181575767,"gmtCreate":1623404403059,"gmtModify":1704202686576,"author":{"id":"3475143061422691","authorId":"3475143061422691","name":"冯榕","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3475143061422691","authorIdStr":"3475143061422691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yidijimao ","listText":"Yidijimao ","text":"Yidijimao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181575767","repostId":"2142221374","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2142221374","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623373443,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142221374?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 09:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The concept of Hongmeng is booming, how far is the chicken feather?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142221374","media":"格隆汇","summary":"割我韭菜，没门！","content":"<p><b>The original article was first published on June 10</b></p><p>Today, Huawei's Hongmeng concept has risen across the board, and the Hongmeng Index on Wind has risen by more than 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc037b4162526114358c3b3e89962c7\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Related concept stocks also have daily limit across the board, and many of them have a daily limit of 20% on the GEM.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5116d5d5ef3fe6f2e4abc14cf79bd55\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, Huawei is a member of the Hongmeng Open Source Foundation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300339\">Runhe Software</a>It rose 20%, while Chinasoft International rose 18.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65c85f8cce60503b9a6ca4a5bbf56ad3\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"771\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The market believes that these companies, as initial members of the foundation, are deeply involved in the infrastructure of the Hongmeng system, and will continue to participate in the management and investment of the entire open source community in the future, and will continue to benefit from it.</b></p><p>In terms of news, there are currently many banks and more than 30 securities firms that fully support Hongmeng. In addition, the number of Harmony OS2 upgrade users has exceeded 10 million in 7 days, and it is expected to complete the previously established internal target of 300 million devices equipped with HarmonyOS by the end of this year, including 200 million Huawei mobile phones and 100 million other brand mobile phones.</p><p><h3>1</h3><h3><b>Android vs iOS, the only player in the operating system</b></h3>Among the current operating systems, the mainstream operating systems are Android and iOS, accounting for about 98% of the market share, and the rest is basically Windows phone. The previously flourishing Symbian and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>System, then with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>The decline of mobile phones has withdrawn from the competition.</p><p>And of this 98% market, Android accounts for 75%, and the rest is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>iOS. According to data from SensorTower at the beginning of the year, Apple's App Store revenue in 2020 reached US $73.2 billion, an increase of 30.3% from US $55.5 billion in 2019. Showing a strong gold-attracting power, even Buffett wants to buy Apple as the largest holding.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/220cfb1a357e521a9e808e05b8e8dc7d\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Android is an open source system,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Through the GMS developed by it, all products of the Android ecosystem are locked in its territory, firmly stuck at the entrance of Android general software traffic, forming a monopoly position. For example, Google's app store Play Store, Google's mailbox Gmail, Google Maps, video software YouTube and so on.</p><p>Then monetize advertisements through huge amounts of traffic. Although it was fined 4.34 billion euros by the European Union in 2018 for these binding behaviors, Google still directly monetized them by charging Android system license fees, ranging from 2.5 to 40 US dollars per mobile phone. Wait, if you bind Google Family Bucket by default, this fee can be waived.</p><p>Therefore, as the only operating system between users and machines, a substantial monopoly has been formed, and finally money can be collected through various methods.</p><p><b>No matter in the current mobile Internet era, the last PC era, or even the future Internet of Everything era, the operating system will be the most profitable business model, probably none of them.</b>Because of the powerful ecological power of the operating system, the commercial status is difficult to shake, and even other Internet giants are difficult to succeed. Therefore, they have made efforts in the field of automotive OS and future IOT ecosystem, hoping to seize the next era.</p><p>Speaking of Android, the current mainstream Android mobile phone manufacturers in China include Huawei, OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi. From 2017 to 2020, Huawei's smartphone shipments increased from 90 million units to 120 million units, becoming the top player in the Android camp.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c56ac00be7d10f9328d164480d2ab96\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, due to the reasons of the times, Huawei was forced to carry out the most difficult task of developing its own operating system.</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>The controversy of the shell system and the loss of voice in the Android camp</b></h3>Many people say that Hongmeng is the shell system of Android. Regarding the relationship between Hongmeng and Android,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Many masters above have fully discussed it. It is true that Hongmeng is not a self-developed operating system. It is developed based on AOSP (Android Open-Source Project), but a considerable part of it is independent code. In addition to the mobile OS, the Internet of Things part is indeed independent research and development.</p><p>According to Huawei's past history, even if some things were copied at the beginning (such as early switches), it has a way to eventually develop into an independent technology system. At present, HarmonyOS should be said to be still a transitional product. After all, it needs to be considered that many software developers will not invest too much manpower to support a new operating system.</p><p>Some people use the paradox of the ship of Theseus to describe this current controversy. The ship of Theseus was first recorded by Plutarch, and it described a ship that could sail at sea for hundreds of years, thanks to uninterrupted repairs and replacement parts. As soon as a board rots, it will be replaced, and so on, until all the functional parts are not the original ones.</p><p>The question is whether the resulting ship is still the original Theseus ship, or is it a completely different ship? If not the original ship, then at what point is it no longer the original ship?</p><p>As a product of a special era, the birth of Hongmeng has some tragic and heroic colors. We<b>We should not use technical cleanliness to discuss whether it is an Android case or not. As long as Google doesn't sue, I don't think we have to bother about it. We should bless it and hope it will achieve the greatest success.</b></p><p>But the question that follows is whether other manufacturers will follow suit, and will other Android phones such as Xiaomi OV choose to adopt the Hongmeng system?</p><p>I don't think this will happen for quite some time. Cooperating with Hongmeng is equivalent to having a bad relationship with Google. The domestic impact is not great, but overseas countries still rely heavily on Google's ecological GMS, and which mobile phone manufacturer is willing to give up overseas markets?</p><p>Secondly, if HarmonyOS is directly pre-installed, HarmonyOS is not yet open source (the open source is the foundation's OpenHarmony, similar to Android's ASOP), and the mobile phone Hongmeng must be equipped with Huawei's application market and hms. Everyone knows that domestic game channel servers are all 50-50 accounts. It is absolutely impossible to give such a large amount of profit to others, and it is also the biggest obstacle to preventing other mobile phone manufacturers from using mobile phones Hongmeng. Other mobile phone manufacturers will not invest resources in developing operating systems based on OpenHarmony in the short term.</p><p>Huawei, as the overlord that once occupied half of the domestic mobile phone market, no one wants to hold its lifeblood in the hands of friends. Imagine a scenario. If all mobile phone manufacturers use mobile phones Hongmeng, and Huawei lifts the ban for some reason, then Huawei in the domestic mobile phone industry is a referee + athlete at this time, and can easily achieve this by restricting other manufacturers' mobile phone systems. Advantages, at this time, it is too late for other mobile phone manufacturers to go back and pick up the Android magic changes they left behind.</p><p>Here's a point, why mobile phone manufacturers would rather give their lifeblood to Google. First of all, domestic Android has its own system and is not affected by Google. Even if Google disables gms and closed-source versions of Android 12 and later, each company can update it by itself to deal with it, which basically will not affect the domestic Android market.</p><p>Secondly, it is already a fact that all mobile phone manufacturers overseas have been choked by Google because of gms. Mobile phone manufacturers will no longer use mobile phone Hongmeng in China, adding another stuck neck to the domestic market.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>Can it rise just by touching the edge?</b></h3>Putting aside the technical aspects, let's look at the performance of the secondary market. The secondary market will not care about everything above. As long as three positive lines are needed, Xinyang can be changed.</p><p>This is the Hongmeng concept stock summarized by Tianfeng.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67632208a72103fb6381db8966e3804\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Let's take a look at some trends in the middle:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300598\">ArcherMind Technology</a>：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20598bd927347b0d16bcb537ca39b9d6\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Runhe Software:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5137d8383f1c3414d337fc54fe680d2a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Jiulian Technology:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/282de331496bc3a764adf2c7444ea3c4\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wanxing Technology:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad9fcb6cc3f92f582526eb3ab22c836\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Recently, Hongmeng concept stocks have been in this trend.</p><p>In fact, many Hongmeng concept stocks just say that the company has products in the Hongmeng system, which is the same reason as I said that I want to develop an Apple APP. Others just have some business dealings with Huawei. No one in such a big company as Huawei hasn't done any business dealings yet. However, the secondary market is so crazy.</p><p>With the sharp rise in stock prices, many companies have also issued warning announcements of abnormal stock price fluctuations. These companies are also very honest. From the announcement, we can basically draw the conclusion that Hongmeng's performance growth for these companies is limited.</p><p>For example, Runhe Software, which is also in the foundation, also issued an announcement. The fifth point in the middle also explains the cooperative relationship with Hongmeng, but the key point is that the company itself clearly stated that Hongmeng-related businesses account for a relatively small proportion of orders in hand and will not affect the company. Performance has a significant impact.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f2201fd9f9179fac6739a56cfc77143\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Another example<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688609\">Jiulian Technology</a>Announcement: At present, the company's investment and development based on the Hongmeng system, smart home products such as smart doorbells are in the product development stage and have not yet been launched, and relevant sales revenue has not been formed. There are uncertain factors in the future market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c86b0a8c09179965837cced43338574\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">I can only say that we bless Hongmeng, but some people want to use this concept to cut my leeks, no way!</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The concept of Hongmeng is booming, how far is the chicken feather?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe concept of Hongmeng is booming, how far is the chicken feather?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 09:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The original article was first published on June 10</b></p><p>Today, Huawei's Hongmeng concept has risen across the board, and the Hongmeng Index on Wind has risen by more than 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc037b4162526114358c3b3e89962c7\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Related concept stocks also have daily limit across the board, and many of them have a daily limit of 20% on the GEM.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5116d5d5ef3fe6f2e4abc14cf79bd55\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, Huawei is a member of the Hongmeng Open Source Foundation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300339\">Runhe Software</a>It rose 20%, while Chinasoft International rose 18.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65c85f8cce60503b9a6ca4a5bbf56ad3\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"771\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The market believes that these companies, as initial members of the foundation, are deeply involved in the infrastructure of the Hongmeng system, and will continue to participate in the management and investment of the entire open source community in the future, and will continue to benefit from it.</b></p><p>In terms of news, there are currently many banks and more than 30 securities firms that fully support Hongmeng. In addition, the number of Harmony OS2 upgrade users has exceeded 10 million in 7 days, and it is expected to complete the previously established internal target of 300 million devices equipped with HarmonyOS by the end of this year, including 200 million Huawei mobile phones and 100 million other brand mobile phones.</p><p><h3>1</h3><h3><b>Android vs iOS, the only player in the operating system</b></h3>Among the current operating systems, the mainstream operating systems are Android and iOS, accounting for about 98% of the market share, and the rest is basically Windows phone. The previously flourishing Symbian and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>System, then with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>The decline of mobile phones has withdrawn from the competition.</p><p>And of this 98% market, Android accounts for 75%, and the rest is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>iOS. According to data from SensorTower at the beginning of the year, Apple's App Store revenue in 2020 reached US $73.2 billion, an increase of 30.3% from US $55.5 billion in 2019. Showing a strong gold-attracting power, even Buffett wants to buy Apple as the largest holding.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/220cfb1a357e521a9e808e05b8e8dc7d\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Android is an open source system,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Through the GMS developed by it, all products of the Android ecosystem are locked in its territory, firmly stuck at the entrance of Android general software traffic, forming a monopoly position. For example, Google's app store Play Store, Google's mailbox Gmail, Google Maps, video software YouTube and so on.</p><p>Then monetize advertisements through huge amounts of traffic. Although it was fined 4.34 billion euros by the European Union in 2018 for these binding behaviors, Google still directly monetized them by charging Android system license fees, ranging from 2.5 to 40 US dollars per mobile phone. Wait, if you bind Google Family Bucket by default, this fee can be waived.</p><p>Therefore, as the only operating system between users and machines, a substantial monopoly has been formed, and finally money can be collected through various methods.</p><p><b>No matter in the current mobile Internet era, the last PC era, or even the future Internet of Everything era, the operating system will be the most profitable business model, probably none of them.</b>Because of the powerful ecological power of the operating system, the commercial status is difficult to shake, and even other Internet giants are difficult to succeed. Therefore, they have made efforts in the field of automotive OS and future IOT ecosystem, hoping to seize the next era.</p><p>Speaking of Android, the current mainstream Android mobile phone manufacturers in China include Huawei, OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi. From 2017 to 2020, Huawei's smartphone shipments increased from 90 million units to 120 million units, becoming the top player in the Android camp.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c56ac00be7d10f9328d164480d2ab96\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, due to the reasons of the times, Huawei was forced to carry out the most difficult task of developing its own operating system.</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>The controversy of the shell system and the loss of voice in the Android camp</b></h3>Many people say that Hongmeng is the shell system of Android. Regarding the relationship between Hongmeng and Android,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Many masters above have fully discussed it. It is true that Hongmeng is not a self-developed operating system. It is developed based on AOSP (Android Open-Source Project), but a considerable part of it is independent code. In addition to the mobile OS, the Internet of Things part is indeed independent research and development.</p><p>According to Huawei's past history, even if some things were copied at the beginning (such as early switches), it has a way to eventually develop into an independent technology system. At present, HarmonyOS should be said to be still a transitional product. After all, it needs to be considered that many software developers will not invest too much manpower to support a new operating system.</p><p>Some people use the paradox of the ship of Theseus to describe this current controversy. The ship of Theseus was first recorded by Plutarch, and it described a ship that could sail at sea for hundreds of years, thanks to uninterrupted repairs and replacement parts. As soon as a board rots, it will be replaced, and so on, until all the functional parts are not the original ones.</p><p>The question is whether the resulting ship is still the original Theseus ship, or is it a completely different ship? If not the original ship, then at what point is it no longer the original ship?</p><p>As a product of a special era, the birth of Hongmeng has some tragic and heroic colors. We<b>We should not use technical cleanliness to discuss whether it is an Android case or not. As long as Google doesn't sue, I don't think we have to bother about it. We should bless it and hope it will achieve the greatest success.</b></p><p>But the question that follows is whether other manufacturers will follow suit, and will other Android phones such as Xiaomi OV choose to adopt the Hongmeng system?</p><p>I don't think this will happen for quite some time. Cooperating with Hongmeng is equivalent to having a bad relationship with Google. The domestic impact is not great, but overseas countries still rely heavily on Google's ecological GMS, and which mobile phone manufacturer is willing to give up overseas markets?</p><p>Secondly, if HarmonyOS is directly pre-installed, HarmonyOS is not yet open source (the open source is the foundation's OpenHarmony, similar to Android's ASOP), and the mobile phone Hongmeng must be equipped with Huawei's application market and hms. Everyone knows that domestic game channel servers are all 50-50 accounts. It is absolutely impossible to give such a large amount of profit to others, and it is also the biggest obstacle to preventing other mobile phone manufacturers from using mobile phones Hongmeng. Other mobile phone manufacturers will not invest resources in developing operating systems based on OpenHarmony in the short term.</p><p>Huawei, as the overlord that once occupied half of the domestic mobile phone market, no one wants to hold its lifeblood in the hands of friends. Imagine a scenario. If all mobile phone manufacturers use mobile phones Hongmeng, and Huawei lifts the ban for some reason, then Huawei in the domestic mobile phone industry is a referee + athlete at this time, and can easily achieve this by restricting other manufacturers' mobile phone systems. Advantages, at this time, it is too late for other mobile phone manufacturers to go back and pick up the Android magic changes they left behind.</p><p>Here's a point, why mobile phone manufacturers would rather give their lifeblood to Google. First of all, domestic Android has its own system and is not affected by Google. Even if Google disables gms and closed-source versions of Android 12 and later, each company can update it by itself to deal with it, which basically will not affect the domestic Android market.</p><p>Secondly, it is already a fact that all mobile phone manufacturers overseas have been choked by Google because of gms. Mobile phone manufacturers will no longer use mobile phone Hongmeng in China, adding another stuck neck to the domestic market.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>Can it rise just by touching the edge?</b></h3>Putting aside the technical aspects, let's look at the performance of the secondary market. The secondary market will not care about everything above. As long as three positive lines are needed, Xinyang can be changed.</p><p>This is the Hongmeng concept stock summarized by Tianfeng.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67632208a72103fb6381db8966e3804\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Let's take a look at some trends in the middle:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300598\">ArcherMind Technology</a>：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20598bd927347b0d16bcb537ca39b9d6\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Runhe Software:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5137d8383f1c3414d337fc54fe680d2a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Jiulian Technology:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/282de331496bc3a764adf2c7444ea3c4\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wanxing Technology:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad9fcb6cc3f92f582526eb3ab22c836\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Recently, Hongmeng concept stocks have been in this trend.</p><p>In fact, many Hongmeng concept stocks just say that the company has products in the Hongmeng system, which is the same reason as I said that I want to develop an Apple APP. Others just have some business dealings with Huawei. No one in such a big company as Huawei hasn't done any business dealings yet. However, the secondary market is so crazy.</p><p>With the sharp rise in stock prices, many companies have also issued warning announcements of abnormal stock price fluctuations. These companies are also very honest. From the announcement, we can basically draw the conclusion that Hongmeng's performance growth for these companies is limited.</p><p>For example, Runhe Software, which is also in the foundation, also issued an announcement. The fifth point in the middle also explains the cooperative relationship with Hongmeng, but the key point is that the company itself clearly stated that Hongmeng-related businesses account for a relatively small proportion of orders in hand and will not affect the company. Performance has a significant impact.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f2201fd9f9179fac6739a56cfc77143\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Another example<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688609\">Jiulian Technology</a>Announcement: At present, the company's investment and development based on the Hongmeng system, smart home products such as smart doorbells are in the product development stage and have not yet been launched, and relevant sales revenue has not been formed. There are uncertain factors in the future market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c86b0a8c09179965837cced43338574\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">I can only say that we bless Hongmeng, but some people want to use this concept to cut my leeks, no way!</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/469818\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce4570430c67a11700e7daf19b74e07","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","GOOG":"谷歌","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","GOOGL":"谷歌A","09086":"华夏纳指-U","03086":"华夏纳指"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/469818","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2142221374","content_text":"原文首发于6月10日\n今天华为鸿蒙概念全线崛起，万得上面的鸿蒙指数上涨了超过8%。\n\n相关概念股也是全线涨停，很多都是创业板20%的那种涨停。\n\n比如和华为同为鸿蒙开放源自开源基金会成员的润和软件上涨20%，中软国际上涨18.8%。\n\n市场认为这些公司作为基金会的初始成员，深度参与鸿蒙系统的基础搭建，未来将持续参与整个开源社区的管理和投入，会持续从中获益。\n在消息上面，目前有多家银行和超过30家的券商全面支持鸿蒙。另外Harmony OS2升级用户7天已破千万，有望完成之前内部既定的今年底鸿蒙操作系统搭载设备数量3亿台的目标，其中2亿台华为手机，1亿台其他品牌手机。\n1\n安卓 vs iOS，操作系统的独二玩家\n目前操作系统中，主流的就安卓和iOS，占了大约98%的市场份额，剩下的基本就是Windows phone了，而之前如日中天的塞班及黑莓系统，则随着诺基亚和黑莓手机的没落，退出了竞争行列。\n而在这98%的市场中，安卓占了75%，剩下的就是苹果的iOS了。根据SensorTower年初的数据，苹果App Store 2020年收入达到732亿美元，相比于比2019的555亿美元增了长30.3%。体现出了强大的吸金力，连巴菲特都要把苹果买成第一大重仓股。而安卓虽然是开源系统，但是谷歌通过其开发的GMS，将安卓生态的所有产品都锁定在其版图之中，牢牢卡住安卓通用软件流量的入口，形成了垄断地位。比如谷歌的应用商店Play Store，谷歌的邮箱Gmail，谷歌地图，视频软件油管等等。\n然后通过巨额流量进行广告变现，虽然因为这些绑定的行为在2018年遭到了欧盟43.4亿欧元的天价罚单，但谷歌仍然通过收取安卓系统许可费进行直接变现，每台手机2.5-40美金不等，如果默认绑定谷歌全家桶则可以豁免该项费用。\n所以作为用户和机器之间的唯一的操作系统，形成了实质性的垄断，最后都能通过各种方法把钱收上来。\n操作系统不论在现在的移动互联时代，还是上一个PC时代，甚至未来的万物互联时代，都将是最赚钱的商业模式，可能没有之一。因为操作系统的强大生态力量，商业地位难以撼动，连其他互联网巨头都难以成功。所以纷纷在汽车OS以及未来IOT生态领域发力，想抢占下一个时代。\n说回安卓，目前中国主流安卓手机的手机商包括华为、 OPPO、 vivo、 小米，其中2017年至2020年期间，华为智能手机出货量从0.9亿台增长至1.2亿台，成为了安卓阵营的头部玩家。但是后面由于时代的原因，华为被迫进行了最艰难的自己研发操作系统。\n2\n套壳系统的争议与安卓阵营的失声\n很多人说，鸿蒙就是安卓的套壳系统。关于鸿蒙和安卓的关系，知乎上面有很多大神已经进行了充分探讨，的确鸿蒙不是自主开发的操作系统，是基于 AOSP（Android Open-Source Project）开发的，但是也有相当部分是属于自主代码，除开手机OS，物联网部分确实是自主研发。\n根据华为以往历史，就算一开始抄了些东西（比如早期的交换机），但是它有办法最终发展成自主技术体系，而鸿蒙OS在目前应该说的确还是一个过渡期的产品，毕竟需要考虑到众多的软件开放商不会过多投入人力去专门支持一个新的操作系统。\n有人用特修斯之船悖论来描述现在的这种争议。特修斯之船最早出自普鲁塔克的记载，它描述的是一艘可以在海上航行几百年的船，归功于不间断的维修和替换部件。只要一块木板腐烂了，它就会被替换掉，以此类推，直到所有的功能部件都不是最开始的那些了。\n问题是，最终产生的这艘船是否还是原来的那艘特修斯之船，还是一艘完全不同的船？如果不是原来的船，那么在什么时候它不再是原来的船了？\n鸿蒙作为特殊时代的产物，鸿蒙的诞生拥有了一些悲情英雄的色彩，我们不应该用技术洁癖去探讨到底是不是安卓套壳，只要是谷歌不来起诉，我觉得都不必为这事烦扰，我们应该祝福它并希望它取得最大程度的成功。\n但随之而来的问题是，其他厂商跟不跟，小米OV等其他安卓机是否会选择采用鸿蒙系统？\n这个我觉得在相当的一段时间内都不会发生。和鸿蒙合作，等于和谷歌交恶，国内影响不大，但是海外还是非常依赖谷歌生态的GMS，而哪个手机厂商又愿意放弃海外市场呢？\n其次，如果直接预装HarmonyOS，HarmonyOS尚未开源（开源的是那个基金会的OpenHarmony，类似于安卓的ASOP），使用手机鸿蒙必然要搭载华为的应用市场和hms。大家都知道国内的游戏渠道服都是五五分账，这么一大笔利润决然不可能让给别人，也是阻拦其他手机厂使用手机鸿蒙的最大障碍。而其他手机厂商短期也不会投入资源去开发基于OpenHarmony的操作系统。\n华为作为曾经国内占据手机半壁江山的霸主，没有人愿意把命脉捏在友商手里。试想一个场景，如果所有的手机厂商都使用了手机鸿蒙，而华为因为某种原因解禁了，那么此时国内手机行业华为就是裁判员+运动员的身份，可以轻易通过限制其他厂家的手机系统来实现优势，此时其他手机厂商再想回头拾回丢下的安卓魔改为时已晚。\n这里说明一点，为什么手机厂宁愿把命脉交给谷歌呢。首先，国内的安卓自成体系，不受谷歌的影响，哪怕谷歌禁用gms和闭源安卓12以后的版本，各家也能自己更新去应对，基本不会对国内的安卓市场有影响。\n其次，海外因为gms的原因，所有手机厂都已经被谷歌掐住了脖子，这已经是事实了。手机厂不会再在国内使用手机鸿蒙，给国内的市场再添一个被卡住的脖子。\n3\n沾个边就能涨？\n抛开技术层面的东西，我们来看二级市场的表现。二级市场不会管上面的一切，只要三根阳线，就能改变信阳。\n这是天风总结的鸿蒙概念股。我们来看下中间的一些走势：\n诚迈科技：润和软件：九联科技：万兴科技：最近鸿蒙概念股都是这样的走势。\n其实很多鸿蒙概念股只是说公司旗下有产品入驻鸿蒙体系，这和我说我要开发一个苹果的APP是一样的道理。另一些只是和华为有些业务往来，华为这么大个公司谁还没点业务往来了。但是，二级市场就是如此疯狂。\n在股价大涨之下，很多公司也都发布了股价异常波动的提示公告。这些公司也很诚实，从公告中，我们可以基本得出这样的结论，鸿蒙对这些公司的业绩增长有限。\n比如同在基金会的润和软件也发布了公告，中间第五点，也说明了与鸿蒙的合作关系，但重点在于，公司自己明确表达鸿蒙相关业务在手订单占比较小，不会对公司业绩产生重大影响。又比如九联科技的公告：目前公司基于鸿蒙系统的投入开发，智慧门铃等智慧家庭产品，处在产品开发阶段还未上市，未形成相关销售收入，未来市场存在不确定因素。只能说，我们祝福鸿蒙，但有人想利用这个概念割我韭菜，没门！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09086":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"03086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192373816,"gmtCreate":1621153443135,"gmtModify":1704353443070,"author":{"id":"3475143061422691","authorId":"3475143061422691","name":"冯榕","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3475143061422691","authorIdStr":"3475143061422691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You are a foolish man!","listText":"You are a foolish man!","text":"You are a foolish man!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192373816","repostId":"2135898682","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
