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honinbou
2020-11-27
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honinbou
2020-10-08
Mark
How to choose growth stocks? Buffett's soul mentor gave the answer 60 years ago
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11:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How to choose growth stocks? Buffett's soul mentor gave the answer 60 years ago","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164946913","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"其实巴菲特是80%的费雪和20%的格雷厄姆。","content":"<p>Everyone knows that Buffett's teacher is Graham, but not many people are familiar with Buffett's other teacher, who is Philip Fisher.</p><p>In an interview, Buffett once mentioned that his investment philosophy is 80% Graham and 20% Fisher, but if you carefully study his later holdings, you will find that Buffett is actually 80% Fisher and 20% Graham.</p><p>Philip Fisher, born in 1907, is known as the father of value investing in growth stocks. He has been studying growth stocks all his life. His investment management consulting company has an average annual return rate of more than 20%.</p><p>As a top investment guru, Philip Fisher is very low-key and hardly gives any interviews, so he is not well-known among ordinary investors. But the book \"How to Choose Growth Stocks\" we recommend to you today became \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>\"The first investment book ever to hit the bestseller list. This book, published 60 years ago, discusses the criteria of growth stocks, how to choose them, and the timing of buying and selling them. It is still a classic among the classics, and it is not out of date at all.</p><p>1</p><p>The \"small talk method\" mentioned by Fisher in the book is definitely a classic method of researching an enterprise.</p><p>At present, mainstream institutions, including public equity, private equity, securities firms, etc., use methods to investigate a listed company, all of which are to meet with senior executives such as the secretary-general and general manager in the conference room for interviews. However, Fisher pointed out 60 years ago that this research method is sometimes unreliable, and executives sometimes report good news but not bad news, and their speeches are exaggerated, which often mislead investors.</p><p>Fisher's \"small talk method\" tells us that we can talk to \"those who have an interest in listed companies in some way (such as suppliers, competitors, customers, governments, cooperative universities, trade associations, former employees of companies, etc.). You can learn about the relative strengths and weaknesses of each company in a certain industry from their representative opinions, and the accuracy of the information is often amazing. Most people, especially when they know that what they say is not at risk of being quoted, like to express their opinions on their work field and comment frankly on competitors \".</p><p>What a wonderful discussion about research this is. Instead of directly obtaining information from the mouth of listed companies, it promotes it layer by layer from its network of interests and obtains clues about listed companies from all aspects. On high-level occasions where various public media are present, most of the speeches of executives will be superficial for various reasons, and the information value is extremely low. Therefore, when we investigate a listed company, we don't have to interview the executives of listed companies.</p><p>2</p><p>The fifteen stock selection principles mentioned in Fisher's book now seem to be very classic. He cares about the company's operation and management and thoroughly hits the key points, which is very similar to Buffett's philosophy.</p><p>Some of these principles are related to the company's strategy, while others are related to whether the company's strategy can be implemented in a limited way. Here, let's pick a few principles to feel.</p><p><b>Principle 1: Does the company have a product or service with good market potential, so that the company's sales can increase substantially within at least a few years?</b></p><p>In this principle, Fisher refers to a classic term he uses to distinguish the qualities of a company: whether a company is \"capable because it is lucky\" or \"lucky because it is capable\".</p><p>Companies that are \"capable because of luck\" have tasted more dividends from industry outlets, policy dividends or other dividends, so the company's sales are growing extremely fast, but once the dividends disappear, the company will expose the shortcomings of insufficient capabilities.</p><p>Companies that are \"lucky because of their ability\" can make a breakthrough in slow-developing and difficult industries and achieve rapid development because of the ability of their management. The result of these two companies may be high growth in financial reports, but the company quality is completely different.</p><p><b>Principle 3: Considering the size of the company, how effective are the efforts made by this company in research and development?</b></p><p>It is very simple to know the proportion of R&D expenses of listed companies, but how to evaluate the efficiency of R&D of listed companies should be a difficult problem faced by all investors. Fisher talked about his thoughts on this in the book. To evaluate R&D efficiency, we need to examine the personnel structure of R&D team, incentive mechanism, how to coordinate with executives and sales teams, how R&D projects skillfully leverage the strength of military industry, etc., and the discussion is very wonderful.</p><p><b>Principle 11: Is the company competitive in other aspects of its business relative to other companies in the industry, so that investors can find clues about what significant advantages the company has over competitors?</b></p><p>In the book, Fisher gave some examples of different perspectives of different industries, and mentioned his views on patent protection. In fact, this principle can be summarized as a wonderful question-what has this company done that other competitors want to do but haven't done yet? Take a closer look at this question, it's simply wonderful. What other competitors want to do but haven't done yet, take a closer look at it. If the listed company can answer this question in detail, it will be of great help to understand the company's competitive advantage..</p><p><b>Principle 14: Does management report good news but not bad news to investors? Be eloquent when business is going well, and keep your mouth shut when something goes wrong or something disappointing happens?</b></p><p>In fact, even the best companies will definitely encounter unexpected difficulties on the road of development, which is very normal and in line with business laws. However, the attitude of the company's management in the face of this kind of thing is a valuable clue for investors to examine the company. For whatever reason, once a company manages to hide bad news, investors had better not include it in the list of stock selection targets, which is Fisher's advice.</p><p>I won't list such wonderful principles one by one. Fisher also discussed how to grasp the buying and selling points of growth stocks, and the \"ten don'ts\" of investors are also very wonderful. For example, don't buy a company's stock just because you like the \"tone\" of its annual report. Don't think that a company's P/E is very high, which inevitably means that the future earnings growth space has been reflected in the price. Don't worry about buying stocks under the cloud of war, and don't overemphasize diversified investment...</p><p>This is definitely not just a book about how to invest in growth stocks. Fisher's series of expositions on business management, marketing, R&D efficiency, financial data, human factors, investment philosophy, etc. in the book are extremely wonderful:</p><p>\"Never promote someone who has never made a mistake, because if you do so, you are promoting someone who has never done anything.\" \"Making a number of mistakes in order to make a good profit is an inevitable cost of investing, just as the best-managed and most profitable financial lender can avoid a certain amount of bad debt losses.\" \"Good management tends to answer questions about a company's weakness as it is about its strengths.\" \"The five powerful forces that affect the stock market are the current economic situation, the trend of interest rates, the overall attitude of the government towards investment and private enterprise, the long-term trend of inflation, and-perhaps the most important of all-the influence of new inventions and technologies. These influences are very complex and diverse, and it seems that the most risky practice is the safest practice. \"</p>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to choose growth stocks? Buffett's soul mentor gave the answer 60 years ago</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to choose growth stocks? Buffett's soul mentor gave the answer 60 years ago\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">苏宁金融研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-10-07 11:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Everyone knows that Buffett's teacher is Graham, but not many people are familiar with Buffett's other teacher, who is Philip Fisher.</p><p>In an interview, Buffett once mentioned that his investment philosophy is 80% Graham and 20% Fisher, but if you carefully study his later holdings, you will find that Buffett is actually 80% Fisher and 20% Graham.</p><p>Philip Fisher, born in 1907, is known as the father of value investing in growth stocks. He has been studying growth stocks all his life. His investment management consulting company has an average annual return rate of more than 20%.</p><p>As a top investment guru, Philip Fisher is very low-key and hardly gives any interviews, so he is not well-known among ordinary investors. But the book \"How to Choose Growth Stocks\" we recommend to you today became \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>\"The first investment book ever to hit the bestseller list. This book, published 60 years ago, discusses the criteria of growth stocks, how to choose them, and the timing of buying and selling them. It is still a classic among the classics, and it is not out of date at all.</p><p>1</p><p>The \"small talk method\" mentioned by Fisher in the book is definitely a classic method of researching an enterprise.</p><p>At present, mainstream institutions, including public equity, private equity, securities firms, etc., use methods to investigate a listed company, all of which are to meet with senior executives such as the secretary-general and general manager in the conference room for interviews. However, Fisher pointed out 60 years ago that this research method is sometimes unreliable, and executives sometimes report good news but not bad news, and their speeches are exaggerated, which often mislead investors.</p><p>Fisher's \"small talk method\" tells us that we can talk to \"those who have an interest in listed companies in some way (such as suppliers, competitors, customers, governments, cooperative universities, trade associations, former employees of companies, etc.). You can learn about the relative strengths and weaknesses of each company in a certain industry from their representative opinions, and the accuracy of the information is often amazing. Most people, especially when they know that what they say is not at risk of being quoted, like to express their opinions on their work field and comment frankly on competitors \".</p><p>What a wonderful discussion about research this is. Instead of directly obtaining information from the mouth of listed companies, it promotes it layer by layer from its network of interests and obtains clues about listed companies from all aspects. On high-level occasions where various public media are present, most of the speeches of executives will be superficial for various reasons, and the information value is extremely low. Therefore, when we investigate a listed company, we don't have to interview the executives of listed companies.</p><p>2</p><p>The fifteen stock selection principles mentioned in Fisher's book now seem to be very classic. He cares about the company's operation and management and thoroughly hits the key points, which is very similar to Buffett's philosophy.</p><p>Some of these principles are related to the company's strategy, while others are related to whether the company's strategy can be implemented in a limited way. Here, let's pick a few principles to feel.</p><p><b>Principle 1: Does the company have a product or service with good market potential, so that the company's sales can increase substantially within at least a few years?</b></p><p>In this principle, Fisher refers to a classic term he uses to distinguish the qualities of a company: whether a company is \"capable because it is lucky\" or \"lucky because it is capable\".</p><p>Companies that are \"capable because of luck\" have tasted more dividends from industry outlets, policy dividends or other dividends, so the company's sales are growing extremely fast, but once the dividends disappear, the company will expose the shortcomings of insufficient capabilities.</p><p>Companies that are \"lucky because of their ability\" can make a breakthrough in slow-developing and difficult industries and achieve rapid development because of the ability of their management. The result of these two companies may be high growth in financial reports, but the company quality is completely different.</p><p><b>Principle 3: Considering the size of the company, how effective are the efforts made by this company in research and development?</b></p><p>It is very simple to know the proportion of R&D expenses of listed companies, but how to evaluate the efficiency of R&D of listed companies should be a difficult problem faced by all investors. Fisher talked about his thoughts on this in the book. To evaluate R&D efficiency, we need to examine the personnel structure of R&D team, incentive mechanism, how to coordinate with executives and sales teams, how R&D projects skillfully leverage the strength of military industry, etc., and the discussion is very wonderful.</p><p><b>Principle 11: Is the company competitive in other aspects of its business relative to other companies in the industry, so that investors can find clues about what significant advantages the company has over competitors?</b></p><p>In the book, Fisher gave some examples of different perspectives of different industries, and mentioned his views on patent protection. In fact, this principle can be summarized as a wonderful question-what has this company done that other competitors want to do but haven't done yet? Take a closer look at this question, it's simply wonderful. What other competitors want to do but haven't done yet, take a closer look at it. If the listed company can answer this question in detail, it will be of great help to understand the company's competitive advantage..</p><p><b>Principle 14: Does management report good news but not bad news to investors? Be eloquent when business is going well, and keep your mouth shut when something goes wrong or something disappointing happens?</b></p><p>In fact, even the best companies will definitely encounter unexpected difficulties on the road of development, which is very normal and in line with business laws. However, the attitude of the company's management in the face of this kind of thing is a valuable clue for investors to examine the company. For whatever reason, once a company manages to hide bad news, investors had better not include it in the list of stock selection targets, which is Fisher's advice.</p><p>I won't list such wonderful principles one by one. Fisher also discussed how to grasp the buying and selling points of growth stocks, and the \"ten don'ts\" of investors are also very wonderful. For example, don't buy a company's stock just because you like the \"tone\" of its annual report. Don't think that a company's P/E is very high, which inevitably means that the future earnings growth space has been reflected in the price. Don't worry about buying stocks under the cloud of war, and don't overemphasize diversified investment...</p><p>This is definitely not just a book about how to invest in growth stocks. Fisher's series of expositions on business management, marketing, R&D efficiency, financial data, human factors, investment philosophy, etc. in the book are extremely wonderful:</p><p>\"Never promote someone who has never made a mistake, because if you do so, you are promoting someone who has never done anything.\" \"Making a number of mistakes in order to make a good profit is an inevitable cost of investing, just as the best-managed and most profitable financial lender can avoid a certain amount of bad debt losses.\" \"Good management tends to answer questions about a company's weakness as it is about its strengths.\" \"The five powerful forces that affect the stock market are the current economic situation, the trend of interest rates, the overall attitude of the government towards investment and private enterprise, the long-term trend of inflation, and-perhaps the most important of all-the influence of new inventions and technologies. These influences are very complex and diverse, and it seems that the most risky practice is the safest practice. \"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/386034.html\">苏宁金融研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab88149c58a4fd1e0322cec8b047c77d","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/386034.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164946913","content_text":"大家都知道巴菲特的老师是格雷厄姆，但是对巴菲特的另一位老师熟悉的人并不多，他就是菲利普•费雪。巴菲特在接受采访时曾谈到自己的投资理念是80%的格雷厄姆和20%的费雪，但仔细研究他后期的持仓，你会发现，其实巴菲特是80%的费雪和20%的格雷厄姆。1907年出生的菲利普•费雪被称为成长股价值投资之父，终其一生都在研究成长股，他的投资管理顾问公司平均每年报酬率都在20%以上。作为顶级投资大师的菲利普•费雪非常低调，几乎不接受任何采访，所以在一般投资者中的知名度并不高。但是今天我们给大家推荐的这本《怎样选择成长股》在1959年一出版就成为《纽约时报》有史以来登上畅销书排行榜的第一部投资著作。这本出版于60年前的书，对于成长股的标准、如何选择以及买入和卖出时机的论述，至今仍然是经典中的经典，丝毫不过时。1费雪在书中提到的“闲聊法”绝对是调研一家企业的经典方法。目前包括公募、私募、券商等主流机构调研一家上市公司的方法，都是在会议室中约见董秘、总经理等高管，进行访谈。但是费雪在60年前就指出这种调研方法有时并不靠谱，高管有时报喜不报忧、讲话有夸大成分等问题常常会误导投资者。费雪的“闲聊法”告诉我们，可以与“那些和上市公司以某种方式存在利害关系的人（比如供应商、竞争对手、客户、政府、合作高校、行业协会组织、公司前雇员等）交谈，你可以从他们所发表的具有代表性的意见入手，获知关于某一行业每一家公司的相对强项和弱项，而且资讯之准确往往令人叹为观止。大部分人，特别是当他们知道自己所说的话没有被引用的风险时，都喜欢就他们从事的工作领域发表看法，并且坦率地评论竞争对手”。这是一段多么精彩的关于调研的论述，不是直接从上市公司口中得出信息，而是从其利害关系网中层层推进，从各个方面获得关于上市公司的线索。在各种公开的各路媒体在场的高级别场合，高管的大部分讲话都会由于各种各样的原因浮于表面，信息价值极低，所以我们调研一家上市公司时完全可以不必访谈上市公司高管。2费雪书中提到的十五个选股原则，现在看来也非常经典，他关心公司的经营管理，深入透彻的直击要害，与巴菲特的理念极其相似。这些原则中有些是和公司战略有关，其他一些则与公司战略是否能够得以有限执行有关。在此，我们挑几条原则来感受一下。原则1：这家公司是否拥有一种具备良好市场潜力的产品或服务，使得公司销售额至少在几年之内能够大幅增长？费雪在这个原则中，提到了一个他用来区分公司品质的经典术语：一家公司是“因为幸运而有能力”还是“因为有能力而幸运”。“因为幸运而有能力”的公司，更多的尝到了行业风口的红利、政策的红利或者其他红利，所以公司销售增长极快，但是一旦红利消失，公司就会暴露出能力不足的缺陷。而“因为有能力而幸运”的公司，则因为管理层的能干，可以在缓慢发展、困难重重的行业中闯出一番天地，实现快速发展。这两种公司的结果或许都是财报中的高增长，但是公司品质却截然不同。原则3：考虑到公司的规模，这家公司在研究发展方面做出的努力取得了多大的效果？知道上市公司的研发费用占比非常简单，但是如何评估上市公司研发的效率，这应该是所有投资者面临的一个难题。费雪在书中谈到他对此的思考，评估研发效率需要考察包括研发团队的人员结构、激励机制、如何与高管及销售团队协调、研发项目如何巧妙地借力军工的力量等等，论述都十分精彩。原则11：公司相对于行业内其他公司而言，在业务的其他方面是否具备竞争力，以便让投资者找出了解该公司相对于竞争者具备何种显著优势的线索？费雪在书中举例了一些不同行业的不同观察角度，提到了对于专利权保护的看法。其实这个原则可以概括为一个精彩的问题——这家公司做了哪些其他竞争对手想做却还没做的事情？仔细看看这个问题，简直精彩至极，其他竞争对手想做，却还没做的事情，细品一下，如果上市公司能够详细的回答这个问题，那么对于理解公司的竞争优势会有极大的帮助。原则14：管理层是不是向投资者报喜不报忧？业务顺利时口若悬河，而在出现问题或发生令人失望的事情时三缄其口？其实哪怕是最优秀的公司，在发展道路上也一定会遇到始料未及的困难，这非常正常，也非常符合商业规律。但是公司管理层面对这种事情的态度，是投资者考察公司的宝贵线索。不管出于什么样的理由，一旦一家公司设法隐瞒坏消息，那么投资者最好就不要将其纳入选股目标之列，这是费雪给出的建议。类似这样精彩的原则就不一一列举了，费雪还论述了成长股的买点和卖点如何把握，以及投资者的“十个不要”也非常精彩。比如不要因为你喜欢某公司年报的“语调”而去购买该公司的股票、不要认为一家公司的市盈率很高，就必然表示未来的收益成长空间已经反映在了价格上、不要担心在战争阴云之下买入股票、不要过度强调分散化投资……这绝对不仅仅是一本讲述如何投资成长股的书，费雪在书中对于企业管理、市场营销、研发效率、财务数据、人的因素、投资哲学等一系列论述极其精彩：“绝对不要晋升一个从没犯过错误的人，因为如果你这么做，就等于晋升了一个从来没做过什么事的人。”“为了赚取丰厚的利润而犯下若干错误是投资中无法避免的成本，就像是经营管理的最好、利润最高的金融贷款机构也无法避免一定数量的坏账损失一样。”“好的管理层回答有关公司劣势的问题时，往往会和回答公司的优势一样坦诚相告。”“影响股市的五种强大力量分别是当前经济态势、利率趋势、政府对投资和私人企业的整体态度、通货膨胀的长期趋势，以及——或许是所有力量中最重要的一种——新发明和新技术对传统行业的影响力。这几种力量很少在同一时间把股价往同一个方向拉动，而且其中没有任何一种力量的重要性就长期而言总是远高于其他种类的力量。这些影响力是非常复杂和多样化的，看上去似乎风险最高的做法却是最安全的做法。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":391017693,"gmtCreate":1606438188912,"gmtModify":1704965605984,"author":{"id":"3502235810145705","authorId":"3502235810145705","name":"honinbou","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cb1b614f82d654f3db6270582de2b3d","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3502235810145705","idStr":"3502235810145705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mark","listText":"Mark","text":"Mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391017693","repostId":"1193091081","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":300801229,"gmtCreate":1602112008861,"gmtModify":1705068602890,"author":{"id":"3502235810145705","authorId":"3502235810145705","name":"honinbou","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cb1b614f82d654f3db6270582de2b3d","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3502235810145705","idStr":"3502235810145705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mark","listText":"Mark","text":"Mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/300801229","repostId":"1164946913","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164946913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1602039840,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164946913?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-10-07 11:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How to choose growth stocks? Buffett's soul mentor gave the answer 60 years ago","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164946913","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"其实巴菲特是80%的费雪和20%的格雷厄姆。","content":"<p>Everyone knows that Buffett's teacher is Graham, but not many people are familiar with Buffett's other teacher, who is Philip Fisher.</p><p>In an interview, Buffett once mentioned that his investment philosophy is 80% Graham and 20% Fisher, but if you carefully study his later holdings, you will find that Buffett is actually 80% Fisher and 20% Graham.</p><p>Philip Fisher, born in 1907, is known as the father of value investing in growth stocks. He has been studying growth stocks all his life. His investment management consulting company has an average annual return rate of more than 20%.</p><p>As a top investment guru, Philip Fisher is very low-key and hardly gives any interviews, so he is not well-known among ordinary investors. But the book \"How to Choose Growth Stocks\" we recommend to you today became \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>\"The first investment book ever to hit the bestseller list. This book, published 60 years ago, discusses the criteria of growth stocks, how to choose them, and the timing of buying and selling them. It is still a classic among the classics, and it is not out of date at all.</p><p>1</p><p>The \"small talk method\" mentioned by Fisher in the book is definitely a classic method of researching an enterprise.</p><p>At present, mainstream institutions, including public equity, private equity, securities firms, etc., use methods to investigate a listed company, all of which are to meet with senior executives such as the secretary-general and general manager in the conference room for interviews. However, Fisher pointed out 60 years ago that this research method is sometimes unreliable, and executives sometimes report good news but not bad news, and their speeches are exaggerated, which often mislead investors.</p><p>Fisher's \"small talk method\" tells us that we can talk to \"those who have an interest in listed companies in some way (such as suppliers, competitors, customers, governments, cooperative universities, trade associations, former employees of companies, etc.). You can learn about the relative strengths and weaknesses of each company in a certain industry from their representative opinions, and the accuracy of the information is often amazing. Most people, especially when they know that what they say is not at risk of being quoted, like to express their opinions on their work field and comment frankly on competitors \".</p><p>What a wonderful discussion about research this is. Instead of directly obtaining information from the mouth of listed companies, it promotes it layer by layer from its network of interests and obtains clues about listed companies from all aspects. On high-level occasions where various public media are present, most of the speeches of executives will be superficial for various reasons, and the information value is extremely low. Therefore, when we investigate a listed company, we don't have to interview the executives of listed companies.</p><p>2</p><p>The fifteen stock selection principles mentioned in Fisher's book now seem to be very classic. He cares about the company's operation and management and thoroughly hits the key points, which is very similar to Buffett's philosophy.</p><p>Some of these principles are related to the company's strategy, while others are related to whether the company's strategy can be implemented in a limited way. Here, let's pick a few principles to feel.</p><p><b>Principle 1: Does the company have a product or service with good market potential, so that the company's sales can increase substantially within at least a few years?</b></p><p>In this principle, Fisher refers to a classic term he uses to distinguish the qualities of a company: whether a company is \"capable because it is lucky\" or \"lucky because it is capable\".</p><p>Companies that are \"capable because of luck\" have tasted more dividends from industry outlets, policy dividends or other dividends, so the company's sales are growing extremely fast, but once the dividends disappear, the company will expose the shortcomings of insufficient capabilities.</p><p>Companies that are \"lucky because of their ability\" can make a breakthrough in slow-developing and difficult industries and achieve rapid development because of the ability of their management. The result of these two companies may be high growth in financial reports, but the company quality is completely different.</p><p><b>Principle 3: Considering the size of the company, how effective are the efforts made by this company in research and development?</b></p><p>It is very simple to know the proportion of R&D expenses of listed companies, but how to evaluate the efficiency of R&D of listed companies should be a difficult problem faced by all investors. Fisher talked about his thoughts on this in the book. To evaluate R&D efficiency, we need to examine the personnel structure of R&D team, incentive mechanism, how to coordinate with executives and sales teams, how R&D projects skillfully leverage the strength of military industry, etc., and the discussion is very wonderful.</p><p><b>Principle 11: Is the company competitive in other aspects of its business relative to other companies in the industry, so that investors can find clues about what significant advantages the company has over competitors?</b></p><p>In the book, Fisher gave some examples of different perspectives of different industries, and mentioned his views on patent protection. In fact, this principle can be summarized as a wonderful question-what has this company done that other competitors want to do but haven't done yet? Take a closer look at this question, it's simply wonderful. What other competitors want to do but haven't done yet, take a closer look at it. If the listed company can answer this question in detail, it will be of great help to understand the company's competitive advantage..</p><p><b>Principle 14: Does management report good news but not bad news to investors? Be eloquent when business is going well, and keep your mouth shut when something goes wrong or something disappointing happens?</b></p><p>In fact, even the best companies will definitely encounter unexpected difficulties on the road of development, which is very normal and in line with business laws. However, the attitude of the company's management in the face of this kind of thing is a valuable clue for investors to examine the company. For whatever reason, once a company manages to hide bad news, investors had better not include it in the list of stock selection targets, which is Fisher's advice.</p><p>I won't list such wonderful principles one by one. Fisher also discussed how to grasp the buying and selling points of growth stocks, and the \"ten don'ts\" of investors are also very wonderful. For example, don't buy a company's stock just because you like the \"tone\" of its annual report. Don't think that a company's P/E is very high, which inevitably means that the future earnings growth space has been reflected in the price. Don't worry about buying stocks under the cloud of war, and don't overemphasize diversified investment...</p><p>This is definitely not just a book about how to invest in growth stocks. Fisher's series of expositions on business management, marketing, R&D efficiency, financial data, human factors, investment philosophy, etc. in the book are extremely wonderful:</p><p>\"Never promote someone who has never made a mistake, because if you do so, you are promoting someone who has never done anything.\" \"Making a number of mistakes in order to make a good profit is an inevitable cost of investing, just as the best-managed and most profitable financial lender can avoid a certain amount of bad debt losses.\" \"Good management tends to answer questions about a company's weakness as it is about its strengths.\" \"The five powerful forces that affect the stock market are the current economic situation, the trend of interest rates, the overall attitude of the government towards investment and private enterprise, the long-term trend of inflation, and-perhaps the most important of all-the influence of new inventions and technologies. These influences are very complex and diverse, and it seems that the most risky practice is the safest practice. \"</p>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to choose growth stocks? Buffett's soul mentor gave the answer 60 years ago</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to choose growth stocks? Buffett's soul mentor gave the answer 60 years ago\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">苏宁金融研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-10-07 11:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Everyone knows that Buffett's teacher is Graham, but not many people are familiar with Buffett's other teacher, who is Philip Fisher.</p><p>In an interview, Buffett once mentioned that his investment philosophy is 80% Graham and 20% Fisher, but if you carefully study his later holdings, you will find that Buffett is actually 80% Fisher and 20% Graham.</p><p>Philip Fisher, born in 1907, is known as the father of value investing in growth stocks. He has been studying growth stocks all his life. His investment management consulting company has an average annual return rate of more than 20%.</p><p>As a top investment guru, Philip Fisher is very low-key and hardly gives any interviews, so he is not well-known among ordinary investors. But the book \"How to Choose Growth Stocks\" we recommend to you today became \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>\"The first investment book ever to hit the bestseller list. This book, published 60 years ago, discusses the criteria of growth stocks, how to choose them, and the timing of buying and selling them. It is still a classic among the classics, and it is not out of date at all.</p><p>1</p><p>The \"small talk method\" mentioned by Fisher in the book is definitely a classic method of researching an enterprise.</p><p>At present, mainstream institutions, including public equity, private equity, securities firms, etc., use methods to investigate a listed company, all of which are to meet with senior executives such as the secretary-general and general manager in the conference room for interviews. However, Fisher pointed out 60 years ago that this research method is sometimes unreliable, and executives sometimes report good news but not bad news, and their speeches are exaggerated, which often mislead investors.</p><p>Fisher's \"small talk method\" tells us that we can talk to \"those who have an interest in listed companies in some way (such as suppliers, competitors, customers, governments, cooperative universities, trade associations, former employees of companies, etc.). You can learn about the relative strengths and weaknesses of each company in a certain industry from their representative opinions, and the accuracy of the information is often amazing. Most people, especially when they know that what they say is not at risk of being quoted, like to express their opinions on their work field and comment frankly on competitors \".</p><p>What a wonderful discussion about research this is. Instead of directly obtaining information from the mouth of listed companies, it promotes it layer by layer from its network of interests and obtains clues about listed companies from all aspects. On high-level occasions where various public media are present, most of the speeches of executives will be superficial for various reasons, and the information value is extremely low. Therefore, when we investigate a listed company, we don't have to interview the executives of listed companies.</p><p>2</p><p>The fifteen stock selection principles mentioned in Fisher's book now seem to be very classic. He cares about the company's operation and management and thoroughly hits the key points, which is very similar to Buffett's philosophy.</p><p>Some of these principles are related to the company's strategy, while others are related to whether the company's strategy can be implemented in a limited way. Here, let's pick a few principles to feel.</p><p><b>Principle 1: Does the company have a product or service with good market potential, so that the company's sales can increase substantially within at least a few years?</b></p><p>In this principle, Fisher refers to a classic term he uses to distinguish the qualities of a company: whether a company is \"capable because it is lucky\" or \"lucky because it is capable\".</p><p>Companies that are \"capable because of luck\" have tasted more dividends from industry outlets, policy dividends or other dividends, so the company's sales are growing extremely fast, but once the dividends disappear, the company will expose the shortcomings of insufficient capabilities.</p><p>Companies that are \"lucky because of their ability\" can make a breakthrough in slow-developing and difficult industries and achieve rapid development because of the ability of their management. The result of these two companies may be high growth in financial reports, but the company quality is completely different.</p><p><b>Principle 3: Considering the size of the company, how effective are the efforts made by this company in research and development?</b></p><p>It is very simple to know the proportion of R&D expenses of listed companies, but how to evaluate the efficiency of R&D of listed companies should be a difficult problem faced by all investors. Fisher talked about his thoughts on this in the book. To evaluate R&D efficiency, we need to examine the personnel structure of R&D team, incentive mechanism, how to coordinate with executives and sales teams, how R&D projects skillfully leverage the strength of military industry, etc., and the discussion is very wonderful.</p><p><b>Principle 11: Is the company competitive in other aspects of its business relative to other companies in the industry, so that investors can find clues about what significant advantages the company has over competitors?</b></p><p>In the book, Fisher gave some examples of different perspectives of different industries, and mentioned his views on patent protection. In fact, this principle can be summarized as a wonderful question-what has this company done that other competitors want to do but haven't done yet? Take a closer look at this question, it's simply wonderful. What other competitors want to do but haven't done yet, take a closer look at it. If the listed company can answer this question in detail, it will be of great help to understand the company's competitive advantage..</p><p><b>Principle 14: Does management report good news but not bad news to investors? Be eloquent when business is going well, and keep your mouth shut when something goes wrong or something disappointing happens?</b></p><p>In fact, even the best companies will definitely encounter unexpected difficulties on the road of development, which is very normal and in line with business laws. However, the attitude of the company's management in the face of this kind of thing is a valuable clue for investors to examine the company. For whatever reason, once a company manages to hide bad news, investors had better not include it in the list of stock selection targets, which is Fisher's advice.</p><p>I won't list such wonderful principles one by one. Fisher also discussed how to grasp the buying and selling points of growth stocks, and the \"ten don'ts\" of investors are also very wonderful. For example, don't buy a company's stock just because you like the \"tone\" of its annual report. Don't think that a company's P/E is very high, which inevitably means that the future earnings growth space has been reflected in the price. Don't worry about buying stocks under the cloud of war, and don't overemphasize diversified investment...</p><p>This is definitely not just a book about how to invest in growth stocks. Fisher's series of expositions on business management, marketing, R&D efficiency, financial data, human factors, investment philosophy, etc. in the book are extremely wonderful:</p><p>\"Never promote someone who has never made a mistake, because if you do so, you are promoting someone who has never done anything.\" \"Making a number of mistakes in order to make a good profit is an inevitable cost of investing, just as the best-managed and most profitable financial lender can avoid a certain amount of bad debt losses.\" \"Good management tends to answer questions about a company's weakness as it is about its strengths.\" \"The five powerful forces that affect the stock market are the current economic situation, the trend of interest rates, the overall attitude of the government towards investment and private enterprise, the long-term trend of inflation, and-perhaps the most important of all-the influence of new inventions and technologies. These influences are very complex and diverse, and it seems that the most risky practice is the safest practice. \"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/386034.html\">苏宁金融研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab88149c58a4fd1e0322cec8b047c77d","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/386034.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164946913","content_text":"大家都知道巴菲特的老师是格雷厄姆，但是对巴菲特的另一位老师熟悉的人并不多，他就是菲利普•费雪。巴菲特在接受采访时曾谈到自己的投资理念是80%的格雷厄姆和20%的费雪，但仔细研究他后期的持仓，你会发现，其实巴菲特是80%的费雪和20%的格雷厄姆。1907年出生的菲利普•费雪被称为成长股价值投资之父，终其一生都在研究成长股，他的投资管理顾问公司平均每年报酬率都在20%以上。作为顶级投资大师的菲利普•费雪非常低调，几乎不接受任何采访，所以在一般投资者中的知名度并不高。但是今天我们给大家推荐的这本《怎样选择成长股》在1959年一出版就成为《纽约时报》有史以来登上畅销书排行榜的第一部投资著作。这本出版于60年前的书，对于成长股的标准、如何选择以及买入和卖出时机的论述，至今仍然是经典中的经典，丝毫不过时。1费雪在书中提到的“闲聊法”绝对是调研一家企业的经典方法。目前包括公募、私募、券商等主流机构调研一家上市公司的方法，都是在会议室中约见董秘、总经理等高管，进行访谈。但是费雪在60年前就指出这种调研方法有时并不靠谱，高管有时报喜不报忧、讲话有夸大成分等问题常常会误导投资者。费雪的“闲聊法”告诉我们，可以与“那些和上市公司以某种方式存在利害关系的人（比如供应商、竞争对手、客户、政府、合作高校、行业协会组织、公司前雇员等）交谈，你可以从他们所发表的具有代表性的意见入手，获知关于某一行业每一家公司的相对强项和弱项，而且资讯之准确往往令人叹为观止。大部分人，特别是当他们知道自己所说的话没有被引用的风险时，都喜欢就他们从事的工作领域发表看法，并且坦率地评论竞争对手”。这是一段多么精彩的关于调研的论述，不是直接从上市公司口中得出信息，而是从其利害关系网中层层推进，从各个方面获得关于上市公司的线索。在各种公开的各路媒体在场的高级别场合，高管的大部分讲话都会由于各种各样的原因浮于表面，信息价值极低，所以我们调研一家上市公司时完全可以不必访谈上市公司高管。2费雪书中提到的十五个选股原则，现在看来也非常经典，他关心公司的经营管理，深入透彻的直击要害，与巴菲特的理念极其相似。这些原则中有些是和公司战略有关，其他一些则与公司战略是否能够得以有限执行有关。在此，我们挑几条原则来感受一下。原则1：这家公司是否拥有一种具备良好市场潜力的产品或服务，使得公司销售额至少在几年之内能够大幅增长？费雪在这个原则中，提到了一个他用来区分公司品质的经典术语：一家公司是“因为幸运而有能力”还是“因为有能力而幸运”。“因为幸运而有能力”的公司，更多的尝到了行业风口的红利、政策的红利或者其他红利，所以公司销售增长极快，但是一旦红利消失，公司就会暴露出能力不足的缺陷。而“因为有能力而幸运”的公司，则因为管理层的能干，可以在缓慢发展、困难重重的行业中闯出一番天地，实现快速发展。这两种公司的结果或许都是财报中的高增长，但是公司品质却截然不同。原则3：考虑到公司的规模，这家公司在研究发展方面做出的努力取得了多大的效果？知道上市公司的研发费用占比非常简单，但是如何评估上市公司研发的效率，这应该是所有投资者面临的一个难题。费雪在书中谈到他对此的思考，评估研发效率需要考察包括研发团队的人员结构、激励机制、如何与高管及销售团队协调、研发项目如何巧妙地借力军工的力量等等，论述都十分精彩。原则11：公司相对于行业内其他公司而言，在业务的其他方面是否具备竞争力，以便让投资者找出了解该公司相对于竞争者具备何种显著优势的线索？费雪在书中举例了一些不同行业的不同观察角度，提到了对于专利权保护的看法。其实这个原则可以概括为一个精彩的问题——这家公司做了哪些其他竞争对手想做却还没做的事情？仔细看看这个问题，简直精彩至极，其他竞争对手想做，却还没做的事情，细品一下，如果上市公司能够详细的回答这个问题，那么对于理解公司的竞争优势会有极大的帮助。原则14：管理层是不是向投资者报喜不报忧？业务顺利时口若悬河，而在出现问题或发生令人失望的事情时三缄其口？其实哪怕是最优秀的公司，在发展道路上也一定会遇到始料未及的困难，这非常正常，也非常符合商业规律。但是公司管理层面对这种事情的态度，是投资者考察公司的宝贵线索。不管出于什么样的理由，一旦一家公司设法隐瞒坏消息，那么投资者最好就不要将其纳入选股目标之列，这是费雪给出的建议。类似这样精彩的原则就不一一列举了，费雪还论述了成长股的买点和卖点如何把握，以及投资者的“十个不要”也非常精彩。比如不要因为你喜欢某公司年报的“语调”而去购买该公司的股票、不要认为一家公司的市盈率很高，就必然表示未来的收益成长空间已经反映在了价格上、不要担心在战争阴云之下买入股票、不要过度强调分散化投资……这绝对不仅仅是一本讲述如何投资成长股的书，费雪在书中对于企业管理、市场营销、研发效率、财务数据、人的因素、投资哲学等一系列论述极其精彩：“绝对不要晋升一个从没犯过错误的人，因为如果你这么做，就等于晋升了一个从来没做过什么事的人。”“为了赚取丰厚的利润而犯下若干错误是投资中无法避免的成本，就像是经营管理的最好、利润最高的金融贷款机构也无法避免一定数量的坏账损失一样。”“好的管理层回答有关公司劣势的问题时，往往会和回答公司的优势一样坦诚相告。”“影响股市的五种强大力量分别是当前经济态势、利率趋势、政府对投资和私人企业的整体态度、通货膨胀的长期趋势，以及——或许是所有力量中最重要的一种——新发明和新技术对传统行业的影响力。这几种力量很少在同一时间把股价往同一个方向拉动，而且其中没有任何一种力量的重要性就长期而言总是远高于其他种类的力量。这些影响力是非常复杂和多样化的，看上去似乎风险最高的做法却是最安全的做法。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
