U.S. equity indices have recurring time windows each year that deserve extra attention—February, May, August, and October—and the first week of February that just passed seems to have “worked” again in influencing U.S. equity indices. Think back to last year: U.S. equity indices formed a cyclical top during February, and then, on news that Trump would impose tariffs globally, they fell about 20% in a short period.​ That move also produced a near-10% single-day drop—an historical record in recent years.​ Even though the pace of tariff implementation later slowed and U.S. equity indices went on to make new highs, these kinds of sharp, fast pullbacks still caused many investors unnecessary panic and losses.​ This year, at the same time window, U.S. equity indices have again experienced a simi

Last Friday night, gold $黄金主连 2604(GCmain)$ and silve $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ r posted their largest single-day declines in history. Silver plunged as much as 35% in one day, nearly erasing all of its gains for the year in a single blow. Such extreme volatility far exceeded most investors’ expectations. However, readers who have been following my analysis should recall that I long ago characterized this silver rally as a “short squeeze”—a phenomenon not uncommon in futures markets (typically erupting in some commodity every 2–3 years). Since short squeezes are driven more by market positioning and sentiment than by fundamental supply-demand dynamics, they tend to unwind just as violentl

The “tariffs-for-Greenland” drama, which had markets on edge for days, quieted down Wednesday night after Trump’s latest “TACO” move. U.S. equity indices, having touched their 20-week moving average, bounced back as expected—thanks to a clean alignment of news flow and technical support.What is the “TACO trade”?It stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” a term coined in 2025 by Robert Armstrong, a columnist at the Financial Times. It describes a recurring pattern in Trump’s policy playbook since returning to office: his administration loudly announces aggressive measures—like steep tariffs on foreign nations—sparking market panic and sell-offs. But under pressure, it soon pauses, scales back, or reverses course, triggering a swift rally.This cycle has worked repeatedly in 2025. The recent

As the year-end approaches, the market continues last week's trend, with relatively light trading volume. During such quiet periods, a short-term piece of news can often trigger significant market volatility, so everyone needs to pay slight attention (especially those chasing rallies). Over the weekend, the CME Group issued a major margin adjustment notice on December 26th, stating that it will comprehensively increase the performance margins for metal futures such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium after the close on Monday, December 29th.Normally, this is just a routine exchange operation for high-volatility products. However, when a product experiences abnormally rapid one-sided movement in a short period, such news often leads to substantial volatility (though not necessarily a t

As the year-end approaches, the market gradually enters a clearing period and trading activity becomes lighter. Overseas markets are about to enter the Christmas and New Year holidays, which makes this a suitable time to review the past and think about how to position trading ideas for the year ahead. Next year, like this year, is also expected to be a high-volatility year, with risks and opportunities coexisting. In January, there will be an introduction to the major trading opportunities for the coming year—stay tuned. In the meantime, even if the remaining time this year is relatively quiet, there are strategies designed for quiet markets, and this period is particularly suitable for using them.The Nasdaq rebounded from support as expected​Last week’s post stated very clearly that the N

The October time window has arrived again. During the National Day period, we already reminded everyone to pay attention to the special news that often occurs at this time, as it tends to trigger significant volatility in the U.S. stock market. Since the tariff war began, most of the top ten countries and regions trading with the U.S. have reached framework agreements with the United States (though actual implementation details remain unclear). However, the most critical issue—the China-U.S. tariff dispute—has had many positive signals but little substantive progress (such as China restarting purchases of U.S. agricultural products and tariffs on fentanyl). Therefore, when President Trump announced on Friday evening to double tariffs on Chinese goods, it was not too surprising, as the part

The cheerful National Day holiday arrives next week—wishing a happy break to all! For financial markets, however, long holidays often mean that volatility accumulates, and for domestic markets the post‑holiday session is frequently highly turbulent, making the long breaks—Spring Festival and National Day—the two recurring hurdles investors must face each year. Since 2020, every major Chinese holiday has tended to coincide with outsized, unexpected swings in overseas markets, leading to large gaps at the domestic open and even limit‑up or limit‑down moves. For domestic volatility to intensify, it often implies that overseas markets move one‑way during the National Day break, which could present a decent short‑term trading window for investors focused on overseas assets.Will October nonfarm