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Kein2020
2023-12-21
Aww
$蔚来(NIO)$
y
@Alan聊特斯拉
"New Federal Reserve News Agency": Powell suddenly turned around and the market was stunned
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<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>y<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569899433800417\">@Alan聊特斯拉 </a>","listText":"Aww <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>y<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569899433800417\">@Alan聊特斯拉 </a>","text":"Aww $蔚来(NIO)$ y@Alan聊特斯拉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254356408414480","repostId":"2392189150","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2392189150","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1703131049,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2392189150?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-12-21 11:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"New Federal Reserve News Agency\": Powell suddenly turned around and the market was stunned","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2392189150","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。她相信，美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The true attitude of the Federal Reserve is ambiguous, and the node and extent of interest rate cuts are difficult to predict, which makes the market feel confused.</strong></p><p>Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\", wrote that due to the continued decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve's attitude at the last policy meeting of the year softened significantly. Fed President Powell even made it clear that \"discussions have begun to cut interest rates\", which made U.S. stocks and bonds The dealer markets rose in a carnival.</p><p>But Nick Timiraos also said that despite Powell's obvious dovish tendency at the policy meeting press conference, many local Fed presidents were trying to convey a hawkish tone to the market in the following days, that is, inflation has not yet fallen back to 2% target, the Fed will still retain the option of keeping interest rates \"higher and longer\".<strong>The true attitude of the Federal Reserve is ambiguous, and the node and extent of interest rate cuts are difficult to predict, which makes the market feel confused.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3566411568\">The prospect of rate cuts pulls market rebound, but Fed officials still make hawks</h2>Over the past year, Powell has always been tight in his tone, putting on a protracted and death battle against inflation. Since July 2022, he has pointed out at the beginning of every post-meeting press conference that reducing inflation may require a recession, a slowdown in hiring.</p><p>Although in the policy meeting statement released last week, Fed officials did not rule out the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates. However, Powell took the initiative to say in a follow-up speech that some officials had begun to discuss the prospect of interest rate cuts. Although these remarks were not the focus of his speech, the jubilant prospect of interest rate cuts still ignited a rebound in the market.</p><p>After Powell's news conference on December 13, the market began to expect that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates by 25 basis points starting in March, and then cut interest rates by five consecutive 25 basis points. According to the official forecast of the Federal Reserve, interest rates will only be cut three times next year.</p><p>Before this meeting, the market expected the starting node of interest rate cuts to be May, and the number of interest rate cuts during the year would not exceed four times.</p><p>In the days after Powell's speech, several Fed chairmen delivered speeches in succession, pouring cold water on speculation of a rate cut in March.</p><p>Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a televised interview Monday that the market's reaction to Powell was \"confusing\":</p><p>\"We are not engaging in speculative debates about specific policies ahead.\"</p><p>Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said in an interview on Tuesday:</p><p>\"I'm not opposed to cutting interest rates, provided I'm confident that inflation has reached the desired level, but I'm still looking for evidence that'inflation will stabilize at the Fed's 2% target and not higher. '\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1095361584\">Markets Bet Early on Rate Cuts</h2>Over the past year and a half, the Fed has engaged in a tug-of-war with markets, which tend to fall inflation faster and cut interest rates more aggressively than the Fed expects.</p><p>But the current situation feels different because inflation has been at or close to the Fed's target in five of the past six months. Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, said in an interview with the media:</p><p>\"The difference is the data. Inflation fell earlier and faster than the Fed cautiously expected.\"</p><p>Last week, Fed officials expected core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to reach 3.2% by the end of the year, down 0.5% from estimates three months ago.</p><p>Guha said the question is whether Fed officials feel that the market is \"completely wrong\" or whether they also agree that inflation is going down, but just don't want to express their position now in the next three months, giving the market too much optimistic hope.</p><p>She believes,<strong>Fed officials' perfunctory counterattack against markets suggests it's mostly the latter</strong>。</p><p>But even so, many market analysts warned investors not to underestimate the Fed's patience in tackling inflation.</p><p>Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Los Angeles-based asset manager Payden & Rygel, said:</p><p>\"The Fed definitely wants to make sure that the inflation rate will return to 2%, not 3% or 3.5%. The Fed will not compromise on the inflation target, and they have the patience to achieve it.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"New Federal Reserve News Agency\": Powell suddenly turned around and the market was stunned</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"New Federal Reserve News Agency\": Powell suddenly turned around and the market was stunned\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-12-21 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The true attitude of the Federal Reserve is ambiguous, and the node and extent of interest rate cuts are difficult to predict, which makes the market feel confused.</strong></p><p>Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\", wrote that due to the continued decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve's attitude at the last policy meeting of the year softened significantly. Fed President Powell even made it clear that \"discussions have begun to cut interest rates\", which made U.S. stocks and bonds The dealer markets rose in a carnival.</p><p>But Nick Timiraos also said that despite Powell's obvious dovish tendency at the policy meeting press conference, many local Fed presidents were trying to convey a hawkish tone to the market in the following days, that is, inflation has not yet fallen back to 2% target, the Fed will still retain the option of keeping interest rates \"higher and longer\".<strong>The true attitude of the Federal Reserve is ambiguous, and the node and extent of interest rate cuts are difficult to predict, which makes the market feel confused.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3566411568\">The prospect of rate cuts pulls market rebound, but Fed officials still make hawks</h2>Over the past year, Powell has always been tight in his tone, putting on a protracted and death battle against inflation. Since July 2022, he has pointed out at the beginning of every post-meeting press conference that reducing inflation may require a recession, a slowdown in hiring.</p><p>Although in the policy meeting statement released last week, Fed officials did not rule out the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates. However, Powell took the initiative to say in a follow-up speech that some officials had begun to discuss the prospect of interest rate cuts. Although these remarks were not the focus of his speech, the jubilant prospect of interest rate cuts still ignited a rebound in the market.</p><p>After Powell's news conference on December 13, the market began to expect that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates by 25 basis points starting in March, and then cut interest rates by five consecutive 25 basis points. According to the official forecast of the Federal Reserve, interest rates will only be cut three times next year.</p><p>Before this meeting, the market expected the starting node of interest rate cuts to be May, and the number of interest rate cuts during the year would not exceed four times.</p><p>In the days after Powell's speech, several Fed chairmen delivered speeches in succession, pouring cold water on speculation of a rate cut in March.</p><p>Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a televised interview Monday that the market's reaction to Powell was \"confusing\":</p><p>\"We are not engaging in speculative debates about specific policies ahead.\"</p><p>Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said in an interview on Tuesday:</p><p>\"I'm not opposed to cutting interest rates, provided I'm confident that inflation has reached the desired level, but I'm still looking for evidence that'inflation will stabilize at the Fed's 2% target and not higher. '\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1095361584\">Markets Bet Early on Rate Cuts</h2>Over the past year and a half, the Fed has engaged in a tug-of-war with markets, which tend to fall inflation faster and cut interest rates more aggressively than the Fed expects.</p><p>But the current situation feels different because inflation has been at or close to the Fed's target in five of the past six months. Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, said in an interview with the media:</p><p>\"The difference is the data. Inflation fell earlier and faster than the Fed cautiously expected.\"</p><p>Last week, Fed officials expected core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to reach 3.2% by the end of the year, down 0.5% from estimates three months ago.</p><p>Guha said the question is whether Fed officials feel that the market is \"completely wrong\" or whether they also agree that inflation is going down, but just don't want to express their position now in the next three months, giving the market too much optimistic hope.</p><p>She believes,<strong>Fed officials' perfunctory counterattack against markets suggests it's mostly the latter</strong>。</p><p>But even so, many market analysts warned investors not to underestimate the Fed's patience in tackling inflation.</p><p>Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Los Angeles-based asset manager Payden & Rygel, said:</p><p>\"The Fed definitely wants to make sure that the inflation rate will return to 2%, not 3% or 3.5%. The Fed will not compromise on the inflation target, and they have the patience to achieve it.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704654\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19f48a31cee5b3db8d8d914ae81b2c2","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704654","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2392189150","content_text":"美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文指出，由于通胀持续走低，美联储在年内最后一次政策会议上态度显著软化，联储主席鲍威尔甚至明确提出“已经开始讨论降息”，令美国股债商市场齐齐狂欢式上涨。但Nick Timiraos也表示，尽管鲍威尔在政策会议新闻发布会上鸽派倾向明显，但多位地方联储主席在之后的几天里，都在尝试向市场传递鹰派基调，即通胀尚未回落至2%目标，美联储仍然会保留维持利率“更高更长”的选择。美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。降息前景拉动市场反弹，但美联储官员仍放鹰声鲍威尔在过去一年里，口风始终都很紧，一直摆出一副要和通胀进行旷日持久的殊死搏斗的样子。自2022年7月以来，他在每次会后新闻发布会的开头都会指出，要降低通胀可能需要经济衰退、招聘放缓。尽管在上周公布的政策会议声明中，美联储官员并未排除继续提高利率的可能性。但鲍威尔在后续的讲话中主动表示，一些官员已开始讨论降息的前景，虽然这番话并不是他讲话的重点，但欢欣鼓舞的降息前景仍然点燃了市场的反弹。鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。而在此次会议之前，市场预计的降息起始节点是5月，年内降息次数不会超过四次。鲍威尔讲话后的几天里，连续多位美联储主席发表讲话，为3月降息的猜测泼冷水。芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee周一在电视采访中表示，市场对鲍威尔的反应“令人困惑”：“我们不会对未来的具体政策进行猜测性辩论。”里士满联储主席Tom Barkin周二在接受采访时表示：“我不反对下调利率，前提是确信通胀率已经达到了想要的水平，但我仍在寻找‘通胀将稳定在美联储2%的目标而不是更高’的证据。”市场提前押注降息过去一年半以来，美联储与市场展开了拉锯战，市场往往比美联储预期通胀下降得更快，降息幅度更大。但目前的情况让人感觉不同，因为在过去六个月中，有五个月的通胀率都达到或接近美联储的目标。Evercore ISI 公司副董事长Krishna Guha在媒体采访中表示：“不同之处在于数据。通胀下降比美联储审慎预期的来得更早、更快。”上周，美联储官员预计，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率将在今年年底达到3.2%，比三个月前的预期下降了0.5%。Guha表示，问题在于，美联储官员究竟是觉得市场“完全错了”，还是同样认可通胀正在下行，只是不想现在就表达未来三个月后的立场，给市场太多乐观的希望。她相信，美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者。但即使如此，许多市场分析人士还是警告投资者，不要小看美联储解决通胀问题的耐心。总部位于洛杉矶的资产管理公司 Payden & Rygel 的首席经济学家 Jeffrey Cleveland 表示：“美联储肯定希望确定通胀率将回到2%，而不是3%或者3.5%。在通胀目标上美联储不会妥协，他们有耐心去实现。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":1,"SPXU":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":254356408414480,"gmtCreate":1703135387848,"gmtModify":1703135390587,"author":{"id":"3547929199452150","authorId":"3547929199452150","name":"Kein2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65249682dcf9baa8ca041c4121572010","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547929199452150","idStr":"3547929199452150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aww <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>y<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569899433800417\">@Alan聊特斯拉 </a>","listText":"Aww <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>y<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569899433800417\">@Alan聊特斯拉 </a>","text":"Aww $蔚来(NIO)$ y@Alan聊特斯拉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254356408414480","repostId":"2392189150","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2392189150","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1703131049,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2392189150?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-12-21 11:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"New Federal Reserve News Agency\": Powell suddenly turned around and the market was stunned","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2392189150","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。她相信，美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The true attitude of the Federal Reserve is ambiguous, and the node and extent of interest rate cuts are difficult to predict, which makes the market feel confused.</strong></p><p>Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\", wrote that due to the continued decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve's attitude at the last policy meeting of the year softened significantly. Fed President Powell even made it clear that \"discussions have begun to cut interest rates\", which made U.S. stocks and bonds The dealer markets rose in a carnival.</p><p>But Nick Timiraos also said that despite Powell's obvious dovish tendency at the policy meeting press conference, many local Fed presidents were trying to convey a hawkish tone to the market in the following days, that is, inflation has not yet fallen back to 2% target, the Fed will still retain the option of keeping interest rates \"higher and longer\".<strong>The true attitude of the Federal Reserve is ambiguous, and the node and extent of interest rate cuts are difficult to predict, which makes the market feel confused.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3566411568\">The prospect of rate cuts pulls market rebound, but Fed officials still make hawks</h2>Over the past year, Powell has always been tight in his tone, putting on a protracted and death battle against inflation. Since July 2022, he has pointed out at the beginning of every post-meeting press conference that reducing inflation may require a recession, a slowdown in hiring.</p><p>Although in the policy meeting statement released last week, Fed officials did not rule out the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates. However, Powell took the initiative to say in a follow-up speech that some officials had begun to discuss the prospect of interest rate cuts. Although these remarks were not the focus of his speech, the jubilant prospect of interest rate cuts still ignited a rebound in the market.</p><p>After Powell's news conference on December 13, the market began to expect that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates by 25 basis points starting in March, and then cut interest rates by five consecutive 25 basis points. According to the official forecast of the Federal Reserve, interest rates will only be cut three times next year.</p><p>Before this meeting, the market expected the starting node of interest rate cuts to be May, and the number of interest rate cuts during the year would not exceed four times.</p><p>In the days after Powell's speech, several Fed chairmen delivered speeches in succession, pouring cold water on speculation of a rate cut in March.</p><p>Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a televised interview Monday that the market's reaction to Powell was \"confusing\":</p><p>\"We are not engaging in speculative debates about specific policies ahead.\"</p><p>Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said in an interview on Tuesday:</p><p>\"I'm not opposed to cutting interest rates, provided I'm confident that inflation has reached the desired level, but I'm still looking for evidence that'inflation will stabilize at the Fed's 2% target and not higher. '\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1095361584\">Markets Bet Early on Rate Cuts</h2>Over the past year and a half, the Fed has engaged in a tug-of-war with markets, which tend to fall inflation faster and cut interest rates more aggressively than the Fed expects.</p><p>But the current situation feels different because inflation has been at or close to the Fed's target in five of the past six months. Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, said in an interview with the media:</p><p>\"The difference is the data. Inflation fell earlier and faster than the Fed cautiously expected.\"</p><p>Last week, Fed officials expected core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to reach 3.2% by the end of the year, down 0.5% from estimates three months ago.</p><p>Guha said the question is whether Fed officials feel that the market is \"completely wrong\" or whether they also agree that inflation is going down, but just don't want to express their position now in the next three months, giving the market too much optimistic hope.</p><p>She believes,<strong>Fed officials' perfunctory counterattack against markets suggests it's mostly the latter</strong>。</p><p>But even so, many market analysts warned investors not to underestimate the Fed's patience in tackling inflation.</p><p>Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Los Angeles-based asset manager Payden & Rygel, said:</p><p>\"The Fed definitely wants to make sure that the inflation rate will return to 2%, not 3% or 3.5%. The Fed will not compromise on the inflation target, and they have the patience to achieve it.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"New Federal Reserve News Agency\": Powell suddenly turned around and the market was stunned</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"New Federal Reserve News Agency\": Powell suddenly turned around and the market was stunned\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-12-21 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The true attitude of the Federal Reserve is ambiguous, and the node and extent of interest rate cuts are difficult to predict, which makes the market feel confused.</strong></p><p>Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\", wrote that due to the continued decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve's attitude at the last policy meeting of the year softened significantly. Fed President Powell even made it clear that \"discussions have begun to cut interest rates\", which made U.S. stocks and bonds The dealer markets rose in a carnival.</p><p>But Nick Timiraos also said that despite Powell's obvious dovish tendency at the policy meeting press conference, many local Fed presidents were trying to convey a hawkish tone to the market in the following days, that is, inflation has not yet fallen back to 2% target, the Fed will still retain the option of keeping interest rates \"higher and longer\".<strong>The true attitude of the Federal Reserve is ambiguous, and the node and extent of interest rate cuts are difficult to predict, which makes the market feel confused.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3566411568\">The prospect of rate cuts pulls market rebound, but Fed officials still make hawks</h2>Over the past year, Powell has always been tight in his tone, putting on a protracted and death battle against inflation. Since July 2022, he has pointed out at the beginning of every post-meeting press conference that reducing inflation may require a recession, a slowdown in hiring.</p><p>Although in the policy meeting statement released last week, Fed officials did not rule out the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates. However, Powell took the initiative to say in a follow-up speech that some officials had begun to discuss the prospect of interest rate cuts. Although these remarks were not the focus of his speech, the jubilant prospect of interest rate cuts still ignited a rebound in the market.</p><p>After Powell's news conference on December 13, the market began to expect that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates by 25 basis points starting in March, and then cut interest rates by five consecutive 25 basis points. According to the official forecast of the Federal Reserve, interest rates will only be cut three times next year.</p><p>Before this meeting, the market expected the starting node of interest rate cuts to be May, and the number of interest rate cuts during the year would not exceed four times.</p><p>In the days after Powell's speech, several Fed chairmen delivered speeches in succession, pouring cold water on speculation of a rate cut in March.</p><p>Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a televised interview Monday that the market's reaction to Powell was \"confusing\":</p><p>\"We are not engaging in speculative debates about specific policies ahead.\"</p><p>Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said in an interview on Tuesday:</p><p>\"I'm not opposed to cutting interest rates, provided I'm confident that inflation has reached the desired level, but I'm still looking for evidence that'inflation will stabilize at the Fed's 2% target and not higher. '\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1095361584\">Markets Bet Early on Rate Cuts</h2>Over the past year and a half, the Fed has engaged in a tug-of-war with markets, which tend to fall inflation faster and cut interest rates more aggressively than the Fed expects.</p><p>But the current situation feels different because inflation has been at or close to the Fed's target in five of the past six months. Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, said in an interview with the media:</p><p>\"The difference is the data. Inflation fell earlier and faster than the Fed cautiously expected.\"</p><p>Last week, Fed officials expected core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to reach 3.2% by the end of the year, down 0.5% from estimates three months ago.</p><p>Guha said the question is whether Fed officials feel that the market is \"completely wrong\" or whether they also agree that inflation is going down, but just don't want to express their position now in the next three months, giving the market too much optimistic hope.</p><p>She believes,<strong>Fed officials' perfunctory counterattack against markets suggests it's mostly the latter</strong>。</p><p>But even so, many market analysts warned investors not to underestimate the Fed's patience in tackling inflation.</p><p>Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Los Angeles-based asset manager Payden & Rygel, said:</p><p>\"The Fed definitely wants to make sure that the inflation rate will return to 2%, not 3% or 3.5%. The Fed will not compromise on the inflation target, and they have the patience to achieve it.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704654\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19f48a31cee5b3db8d8d914ae81b2c2","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704654","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2392189150","content_text":"美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文指出，由于通胀持续走低，美联储在年内最后一次政策会议上态度显著软化，联储主席鲍威尔甚至明确提出“已经开始讨论降息”，令美国股债商市场齐齐狂欢式上涨。但Nick Timiraos也表示，尽管鲍威尔在政策会议新闻发布会上鸽派倾向明显，但多位地方联储主席在之后的几天里，都在尝试向市场传递鹰派基调，即通胀尚未回落至2%目标，美联储仍然会保留维持利率“更高更长”的选择。美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。降息前景拉动市场反弹，但美联储官员仍放鹰声鲍威尔在过去一年里，口风始终都很紧，一直摆出一副要和通胀进行旷日持久的殊死搏斗的样子。自2022年7月以来，他在每次会后新闻发布会的开头都会指出，要降低通胀可能需要经济衰退、招聘放缓。尽管在上周公布的政策会议声明中，美联储官员并未排除继续提高利率的可能性。但鲍威尔在后续的讲话中主动表示，一些官员已开始讨论降息的前景，虽然这番话并不是他讲话的重点，但欢欣鼓舞的降息前景仍然点燃了市场的反弹。鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。而在此次会议之前，市场预计的降息起始节点是5月，年内降息次数不会超过四次。鲍威尔讲话后的几天里，连续多位美联储主席发表讲话，为3月降息的猜测泼冷水。芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee周一在电视采访中表示，市场对鲍威尔的反应“令人困惑”：“我们不会对未来的具体政策进行猜测性辩论。”里士满联储主席Tom Barkin周二在接受采访时表示：“我不反对下调利率，前提是确信通胀率已经达到了想要的水平，但我仍在寻找‘通胀将稳定在美联储2%的目标而不是更高’的证据。”市场提前押注降息过去一年半以来，美联储与市场展开了拉锯战，市场往往比美联储预期通胀下降得更快，降息幅度更大。但目前的情况让人感觉不同，因为在过去六个月中，有五个月的通胀率都达到或接近美联储的目标。Evercore ISI 公司副董事长Krishna Guha在媒体采访中表示：“不同之处在于数据。通胀下降比美联储审慎预期的来得更早、更快。”上周，美联储官员预计，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率将在今年年底达到3.2%，比三个月前的预期下降了0.5%。Guha表示，问题在于，美联储官员究竟是觉得市场“完全错了”，还是同样认可通胀正在下行，只是不想现在就表达未来三个月后的立场，给市场太多乐观的希望。她相信，美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者。但即使如此，许多市场分析人士还是警告投资者，不要小看美联储解决通胀问题的耐心。总部位于洛杉矶的资产管理公司 Payden & Rygel 的首席经济学家 Jeffrey Cleveland 表示：“美联储肯定希望确定通胀率将回到2%，而不是3%或者3.5%。在通胀目标上美联储不会妥协，他们有耐心去实现。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":1,"SPXU":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
