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2023-04-25
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2023-04-12
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2023-02-04
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2023-01-16
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2022-11-15
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紐西蘭盧哥
2022-08-17
Well done thanks
Night Reading | How Wall Street Condors hunt for food
紐西蘭盧哥
2021-05-02
Well done
"Stock God" Buffett's Q1 report card is here!
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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Q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955289644","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958784760,"gmtCreate":1673828882851,"gmtModify":1676538890279,"author":{"id":"3549859314742531","authorId":"3549859314742531","name":"紐西蘭盧哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a677934b1963ad6aca018df0320e5eaf","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549859314742531","idStr":"3549859314742531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PNN.AU\">$Pepinnini Minerals Ltd(PNN.AU)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PNN.AU\">$Pepinnini Minerals Ltd(PNN.AU)$ </a>","text":"$Pepinnini Minerals Ltd(PNN.AU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958784760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969296891,"gmtCreate":1668459577713,"gmtModify":1676538057984,"author":{"id":"3549859314742531","authorId":"3549859314742531","name":"紐西蘭盧哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a677934b1963ad6aca018df0320e5eaf","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549859314742531","idStr":"3549859314742531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VWE\">$Vintage Wine Estates Inc.(VWE)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VWE\">$Vintage Wine Estates Inc.(VWE)$ </a>","text":"$Vintage Wine Estates Inc.(VWE)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969296891","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9993872869,"gmtCreate":1660681020256,"gmtModify":1676536375684,"author":{"id":"3549859314742531","authorId":"3549859314742531","name":"紐西蘭盧哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a677934b1963ad6aca018df0320e5eaf","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549859314742531","idStr":"3549859314742531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well done thanks ","listText":"Well done thanks ","text":"Well done thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9993872869","repostId":"1187867519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187867519","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1660656382,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187867519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-16 21:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | How Wall Street Condors hunt for food","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187867519","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"当光鲜的白日梦变成了噩梦，市场秃鹰才悄悄开始肆意猎食。霍华德·马克斯，1946年人。美国沃顿商学院毕业，1968年末开始投身于花旗银行的股票分析行业，师从西格尔教授，谨遵“漂亮50”投资法，投资50家","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>When the glamorous daydream turned into a nightmare, the market bald eagle quietly began to hunt wantonly.</p><p>Howard Marks, 1946. Graduated from Wharton Business School in the United States, and began to devote himself to the stock analysis industry of Citibank at the end of 1968. He studied under Professor Siegel, followed the \"Beautiful 50\" investment method, and invested in 50 of the best and fastest growing companies in the United States. \"Any price It's okay, it doesn't matter\". But after 10 years of hard work, Citibank's \"Nifty 50\" lost 90% of its net worth.</p><p>It has been a long decade of hope and disappointment. It's not just the \"Beautiful 50\" who is stung, but also the young Howard Marks.</p><p><ul><li>\"Experience is what you can get when you don't get what you want\".</p><p></li><li>\"Investment is not a matter of what you buy, but a matter of what price you pay\".</p><p></li><li>\"Investing is not about buying good things, but about buying them well\".</p><p></li></ul>What a painful understanding... And the profound thinking caused by this ups and downs actually created Howard Marks' special investment path, and made him a generation of \"Wall Street Condors\", a great master of contrarian investment, and the king of Wall Street's cycle control.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd687f6d806c07ae4d6cf4722f9769da\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Power to Be Different</b></p><p>The \"Beautiful 50\" with ankle cut made Howard Marks later choose to leave the stock market, which is loved by thousands of people. During the toss and turns, Max was influenced by the junk bond king Michael Milken and turned to the junk bond market in the United States. This was a niche market that few people cared about at the time, but it was people's fear of junk bonds and the disregard of the market that made Max see a huge opportunity.</p><p>\"In 1978, my career really started. For the past 40 years, I have basically been buying those unpopular assets, because when you buy assets that no one else wants, you can buy cheaper things\".</p><p>\"If you buy 3A bonds, there will be no excess returns, but if you buy B-class bonds without default, the returns will be very generous.\"</p><p>From 1994, Howard Marks and partner Bruce Cash founded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>, focusing on investments in the junk bond market. From 1995 to 1998, the Internet industry was thriving, but Oaktree Capital has been waiting patiently like a bald eagle. Until you wait for the rabbit, you will never scatter the eagle. It wasn't until around the bursting of the Millennium Bubble that Max launched an official \"home run\".</p><p>The most representative one is the bankruptcy and reorganization of Regal Cinemas, a cinema chain at that time.</p><p>With the prosperity of the American cinema market, Regal Cinemas expanded its borrowing aggressively in the mid-to-late 1990s. In 1998, as the Federal Reserve raised the borrowing rate and the market turned into a recession, the company began to fall into a debt crisis and was once on the verge of bankruptcy. Investors are afraid of the bleak future market prospects and avoid it. But Wall Street bald eagle and contrarian guru Max smells a big opportunity.</p><p>Although Regal Cinemas is a company on the verge of bankruptcy, due to its good accumulation in the early years, it owns many high-quality commercial real estate projects. If bankruptcy revaluation is carried out, the value of the company's commercial real estate projects will far exceed the company's current neglected market price.</p><p>So, when others panic, Max is rational and greedy. Oaktree Capital took the company's debt cheaply at a price of 800 million US dollars, quickly promoted the company's bankruptcy and reorganization, and made a huge profit in this transaction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfb231ab26e1db3d3db1f3cf0358704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Figure: Oaktree Capital's assets under management</p><p>This is the power of daring to be different, the way Howard Marks invests successfully, and the way Oaktree Capital's asset size can rise to the next level after every crisis. When the United States encountered a financial crisis in 2008, the MBS subprime bond market was in mourning, and Oaktree Capital, which had sufficient ammunition, bought all positions. In 2008, Oaktree Capital made a huge profit of $6 billion. Every crisis in the future seems to have become the sweetest hitting zone of Oaktree Capital.</p><p><b>Understanding the horizon of cycles</b></p><p>Bald eagles have sharp eyesight, but also sharp claws and hooked mouths. So what is Howard Marks'big vision?</p><p>There are several clear threads in Howard Marks' basic investment philosophy:</p><p><ul><li>Investment must be cyclical;</p><p></li><li>There must be no escape from the cycle;</p><p></li><li>Macro timing is unreliable;</p><p></li><li>Reverse investment and second-level thinking are the methods.</p><p></li></ul>Marks likes to quote Mark Twain, \"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes\". People have joys and sorrows, the moon is cloudy and sunny, and the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. They are all cycles. Enterprises have a life cycle of growth, maturity and decline, industries have a cycle of germination, prosperity and replacement, and macroeconomics have a cycle of recovery and depression. It is not difficult to understand the existence of cycles. The key is to understand the principle and necessity of cycles-why can't people always escape the curse of cycles?</p><p>Max's 2004 memo<i><b>The Happy Medium</b></i>A classic question is raised: \"In the 65 years since 1957, the average annual return rate of the S&P 500 index has been 10%, but during this period, why did only six years have an annual return rate of around 10%, and in the remaining 90% of the time, the actual rate of return is far from the average rate of return? Why isn't the market evenly presented in the form of a 10% return per year?\"</p><p><b>Max's explanation is-excesses and corrections.</b></p><p>If the stock market is a physical machine, it is possible to maintain the same rhyme for a period of time, but in fact, the main participants in the stock market are people, and the greed and fear of human nature determine that this is an unescapable market cycle.</p><p>When the market is optimistic, people will think that all asset prices will rise forever, and there will always be others who will relay; And when the bubble burst and was extremely pessimistic, people hurriedly wanted to stop losses and leave the market, hiding in the corner and healing themselves lonely, and no longer pity the value everywhere in the market.</p><p>Looking back at the history of the financial market, there is always a history of alternating greed and fear, and a cyclical history of extreme optimism and pessimism. This is an economic law, a psychological law, and a social group law. This is the pendulum of the market cycle, which goes back and forth, endlessly, and is an \"unescapable cycle\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67285e48328a8b43e2b2b396b1be1acb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The way to control the cycle</b></p><p>\"Cycle\" is the big vision that Max is regarded as the \"Wall Street Condor\", so what is Max's hook mouth? Under the unescapable cycle, where is the long-term winning way for Max Investment?</p><p>The \"philosophy of uncertainty\" in Japanese culture is the core idea that Max studied and internalized when he was young. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is Musk's most admired financial scientist. Perhaps it is this accumulation and resonance that makes Max make two very important and firm conclusions on the coping cycle:</p><p>First, macro forecasts are unreliable;</p><p>Second, market timing is unreliable.</p><p>\"It's not that macro expectations are not important, but that major macro turns are difficult to maintain correct forecasts for a long time, and it is difficult to generate sustained value,\" Marks said. Undeniably, there are always wise economists who can successfully predict the inflection point in stages at certain points in time. However, so far, no macroeconomist can be permanently correct, whether at home or abroad. Just as in the long history of asset management, no one can escape the crisis and succeed in bargain hunting every time, the profits obtained by timing do not have long-term sustainability.</p><p>So how to grasp the periodicity of the market based on human nature?</p><p>\"You can't predict, but you can be prepared\". Howard Marks believes that contrarian investment and second-level thinking are the ways to overcome psychological cycles:</p><p><ul><li>Different, to win. (To think differently and to feel different.)</p><p></li><li>Without ignorance and prejudice, where is the bargaining power? If there is no ignorance there is no prejudice where the bargain comes from?</p><p></li><li>If you are afraid, you lose. Scared money never wins.</p><p></li><li>The risk belongs to those who cut the meat at the bottom and leave the market. Risk is the likelihood of being forced out at the bottom.</p><p></li><li>Taking flying knives is the source of profit, so you should be careful in controlling risks. It's our job to catch falling knives. That's how you get bargains. But you have to do it carefully.</p><p></li><li>The opposite is the movement of the Tao, and the weak is the use of the Tao. (Aggressive when people are depressive and defensive when people are excited.)</p><p></li><li>Daydream finally wakes up, are you ready? (Pipe dreams turn nightmares, and the cultures are ready for the hunt.)</p><p></li></ul>Bring time back to the current market, the dark clouds of war, the recurrence of COVID-19, the contraction of liquidity, the trouble of real estate... Every era always has a pile of disturbances that disturb the public's mood and lack confidence. Whenever the public sells their assets and reluctantly leaves the market in panic, Howard Marks, a generation of vultures, silently starts his usual, long-planned and prepared \"aggressiveness\".</p><p><ul><li>\"Now it's time to buy the bottom.\"</p><p></li><li>\"The time is ripe for a bargain.\"</p><p></li></ul>Howard Marks, who has been in the bubble era, finally waited for a good time to snap up \"bargains\".</p><p><ul><li>\"I think waiting for the bottom is a terrible idea. We can't say when the market will bottom out, but when we think we can buy assets at a discount and get value at a cheap price, we can buy it. What we are seeing so far Assets may be cheaper than intrinsic value, in which case we will buy more.\"</p><p></li></ul>The daydream is awake, Max is ready, how about you?</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | How Wall Street Condors hunt for food</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | How Wall Street Condors hunt for food\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-16 21:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>When the glamorous daydream turned into a nightmare, the market bald eagle quietly began to hunt wantonly.</p><p>Howard Marks, 1946. Graduated from Wharton Business School in the United States, and began to devote himself to the stock analysis industry of Citibank at the end of 1968. He studied under Professor Siegel, followed the \"Beautiful 50\" investment method, and invested in 50 of the best and fastest growing companies in the United States. \"Any price It's okay, it doesn't matter\". But after 10 years of hard work, Citibank's \"Nifty 50\" lost 90% of its net worth.</p><p>It has been a long decade of hope and disappointment. It's not just the \"Beautiful 50\" who is stung, but also the young Howard Marks.</p><p><ul><li>\"Experience is what you can get when you don't get what you want\".</p><p></li><li>\"Investment is not a matter of what you buy, but a matter of what price you pay\".</p><p></li><li>\"Investing is not about buying good things, but about buying them well\".</p><p></li></ul>What a painful understanding... And the profound thinking caused by this ups and downs actually created Howard Marks' special investment path, and made him a generation of \"Wall Street Condors\", a great master of contrarian investment, and the king of Wall Street's cycle control.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd687f6d806c07ae4d6cf4722f9769da\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Power to Be Different</b></p><p>The \"Beautiful 50\" with ankle cut made Howard Marks later choose to leave the stock market, which is loved by thousands of people. During the toss and turns, Max was influenced by the junk bond king Michael Milken and turned to the junk bond market in the United States. This was a niche market that few people cared about at the time, but it was people's fear of junk bonds and the disregard of the market that made Max see a huge opportunity.</p><p>\"In 1978, my career really started. For the past 40 years, I have basically been buying those unpopular assets, because when you buy assets that no one else wants, you can buy cheaper things\".</p><p>\"If you buy 3A bonds, there will be no excess returns, but if you buy B-class bonds without default, the returns will be very generous.\"</p><p>From 1994, Howard Marks and partner Bruce Cash founded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>, focusing on investments in the junk bond market. From 1995 to 1998, the Internet industry was thriving, but Oaktree Capital has been waiting patiently like a bald eagle. Until you wait for the rabbit, you will never scatter the eagle. It wasn't until around the bursting of the Millennium Bubble that Max launched an official \"home run\".</p><p>The most representative one is the bankruptcy and reorganization of Regal Cinemas, a cinema chain at that time.</p><p>With the prosperity of the American cinema market, Regal Cinemas expanded its borrowing aggressively in the mid-to-late 1990s. In 1998, as the Federal Reserve raised the borrowing rate and the market turned into a recession, the company began to fall into a debt crisis and was once on the verge of bankruptcy. Investors are afraid of the bleak future market prospects and avoid it. But Wall Street bald eagle and contrarian guru Max smells a big opportunity.</p><p>Although Regal Cinemas is a company on the verge of bankruptcy, due to its good accumulation in the early years, it owns many high-quality commercial real estate projects. If bankruptcy revaluation is carried out, the value of the company's commercial real estate projects will far exceed the company's current neglected market price.</p><p>So, when others panic, Max is rational and greedy. Oaktree Capital took the company's debt cheaply at a price of 800 million US dollars, quickly promoted the company's bankruptcy and reorganization, and made a huge profit in this transaction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfb231ab26e1db3d3db1f3cf0358704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Figure: Oaktree Capital's assets under management</p><p>This is the power of daring to be different, the way Howard Marks invests successfully, and the way Oaktree Capital's asset size can rise to the next level after every crisis. When the United States encountered a financial crisis in 2008, the MBS subprime bond market was in mourning, and Oaktree Capital, which had sufficient ammunition, bought all positions. In 2008, Oaktree Capital made a huge profit of $6 billion. Every crisis in the future seems to have become the sweetest hitting zone of Oaktree Capital.</p><p><b>Understanding the horizon of cycles</b></p><p>Bald eagles have sharp eyesight, but also sharp claws and hooked mouths. So what is Howard Marks'big vision?</p><p>There are several clear threads in Howard Marks' basic investment philosophy:</p><p><ul><li>Investment must be cyclical;</p><p></li><li>There must be no escape from the cycle;</p><p></li><li>Macro timing is unreliable;</p><p></li><li>Reverse investment and second-level thinking are the methods.</p><p></li></ul>Marks likes to quote Mark Twain, \"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes\". People have joys and sorrows, the moon is cloudy and sunny, and the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. They are all cycles. Enterprises have a life cycle of growth, maturity and decline, industries have a cycle of germination, prosperity and replacement, and macroeconomics have a cycle of recovery and depression. It is not difficult to understand the existence of cycles. The key is to understand the principle and necessity of cycles-why can't people always escape the curse of cycles?</p><p>Max's 2004 memo<i><b>The Happy Medium</b></i>A classic question is raised: \"In the 65 years since 1957, the average annual return rate of the S&P 500 index has been 10%, but during this period, why did only six years have an annual return rate of around 10%, and in the remaining 90% of the time, the actual rate of return is far from the average rate of return? Why isn't the market evenly presented in the form of a 10% return per year?\"</p><p><b>Max's explanation is-excesses and corrections.</b></p><p>If the stock market is a physical machine, it is possible to maintain the same rhyme for a period of time, but in fact, the main participants in the stock market are people, and the greed and fear of human nature determine that this is an unescapable market cycle.</p><p>When the market is optimistic, people will think that all asset prices will rise forever, and there will always be others who will relay; And when the bubble burst and was extremely pessimistic, people hurriedly wanted to stop losses and leave the market, hiding in the corner and healing themselves lonely, and no longer pity the value everywhere in the market.</p><p>Looking back at the history of the financial market, there is always a history of alternating greed and fear, and a cyclical history of extreme optimism and pessimism. This is an economic law, a psychological law, and a social group law. This is the pendulum of the market cycle, which goes back and forth, endlessly, and is an \"unescapable cycle\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67285e48328a8b43e2b2b396b1be1acb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The way to control the cycle</b></p><p>\"Cycle\" is the big vision that Max is regarded as the \"Wall Street Condor\", so what is Max's hook mouth? Under the unescapable cycle, where is the long-term winning way for Max Investment?</p><p>The \"philosophy of uncertainty\" in Japanese culture is the core idea that Max studied and internalized when he was young. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is Musk's most admired financial scientist. Perhaps it is this accumulation and resonance that makes Max make two very important and firm conclusions on the coping cycle:</p><p>First, macro forecasts are unreliable;</p><p>Second, market timing is unreliable.</p><p>\"It's not that macro expectations are not important, but that major macro turns are difficult to maintain correct forecasts for a long time, and it is difficult to generate sustained value,\" Marks said. Undeniably, there are always wise economists who can successfully predict the inflection point in stages at certain points in time. However, so far, no macroeconomist can be permanently correct, whether at home or abroad. Just as in the long history of asset management, no one can escape the crisis and succeed in bargain hunting every time, the profits obtained by timing do not have long-term sustainability.</p><p>So how to grasp the periodicity of the market based on human nature?</p><p>\"You can't predict, but you can be prepared\". Howard Marks believes that contrarian investment and second-level thinking are the ways to overcome psychological cycles:</p><p><ul><li>Different, to win. (To think differently and to feel different.)</p><p></li><li>Without ignorance and prejudice, where is the bargaining power? If there is no ignorance there is no prejudice where the bargain comes from?</p><p></li><li>If you are afraid, you lose. Scared money never wins.</p><p></li><li>The risk belongs to those who cut the meat at the bottom and leave the market. Risk is the likelihood of being forced out at the bottom.</p><p></li><li>Taking flying knives is the source of profit, so you should be careful in controlling risks. It's our job to catch falling knives. That's how you get bargains. But you have to do it carefully.</p><p></li><li>The opposite is the movement of the Tao, and the weak is the use of the Tao. (Aggressive when people are depressive and defensive when people are excited.)</p><p></li><li>Daydream finally wakes up, are you ready? (Pipe dreams turn nightmares, and the cultures are ready for the hunt.)</p><p></li></ul>Bring time back to the current market, the dark clouds of war, the recurrence of COVID-19, the contraction of liquidity, the trouble of real estate... Every era always has a pile of disturbances that disturb the public's mood and lack confidence. Whenever the public sells their assets and reluctantly leaves the market in panic, Howard Marks, a generation of vultures, silently starts his usual, long-planned and prepared \"aggressiveness\".</p><p><ul><li>\"Now it's time to buy the bottom.\"</p><p></li><li>\"The time is ripe for a bargain.\"</p><p></li></ul>Howard Marks, who has been in the bubble era, finally waited for a good time to snap up \"bargains\".</p><p><ul><li>\"I think waiting for the bottom is a terrible idea. We can't say when the market will bottom out, but when we think we can buy assets at a discount and get value at a cheap price, we can buy it. What we are seeing so far Assets may be cheaper than intrinsic value, in which case we will buy more.\"</p><p></li></ul>The daydream is awake, Max is ready, how about you?</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a1ad69d0f22cf17bf15da18df75402","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187867519","content_text":"当光鲜的白日梦变成了噩梦，市场秃鹰才悄悄开始肆意猎食。霍华德·马克斯，1946年人。美国沃顿商学院毕业，1968年末开始投身于花旗银行的股票分析行业，师从西格尔教授，谨遵“漂亮50”投资法，投资50家美国最好、发展最快的公司，“任何价格都可以，没关系”。可苦苦挨了10年，花旗银行的“漂亮50”跌去了90%的净值。这是希望与失望的漫漫十年。被刺痛的也不止是“漂亮50”，更是年轻的霍华德·马克斯。“所谓经验就是当你没有得到你想要东西的时候你所能得到的”。“投资不是你买什么的问题，而是你付出什么价格的问题”。“投资不是买好东西，而是买得好”。多么痛彻的领悟……而这段坎坷引发的深刻思考反倒是造就了霍华德·马克斯特别的投资之路，成就了一代“华尔街秃鹰”、伟大的逆向投资大师、华尔街驾驭周期的王。敢于与众不同的力量脚踝斩的“漂亮50”让霍华德·马克斯后来选择离开了备受万千宠爱的股票市场。辗转间，马克斯受垃圾债大王迈克尔·米尔肯的影响，转向了美国的垃圾债市场。这是个在当时少有人问津的小众市场，但是正是人们对垃圾债的畏惧心理和市场的无视，让马克斯看到了巨大的机会。“1978年，我的职业生涯才真正开始，在过去的40年里，我基本上都是在买那些不受欢迎的资产，因为当你买别人都不想要的资产时，才能买到更便宜的东西”。“如果你买3A债，没有任何超额收益，但买B级债如果没有违约，收益会非常丰厚”。从1994年起，霍华德·马克斯与合伙人布鲁斯·卡什创立了橡树资本，专注于垃圾债市场的投资。1995年到1998年间，互联网行业欣欣向荣，但橡树资本一直像秃鹰一样耐心守候。没等到兔子，便绝不撒鹰。直到千禧泡沫破裂的前后，马克斯才展开了正式的“本垒打”。最有代表性的是当时影院连锁企业Regal Cinemas的破产重组。伴随着美国影院市场的繁荣，Regal Cinemas在90年代中后期大肆借贷扩张，1998年随着联储提高借贷利率和市场转入不景气，公司开始陷入债务危机，一度徘徊于破产边缘。投资人忌惮于未来市场前景的黯淡，纷纷避之而不及。但华尔街秃鹰、逆向投资大师马克斯却嗅到了大机会。Regal Cinemas虽是一家濒临破产的公司，但由于早年的良好积累，其旗下拥有很多优质的商业地产项目，如果进行破产重估，公司的商业地产项目价值会远超公司当前无人问津的市场价格。于是，别人恐慌的时候，马克斯理性而贪婪。橡树资本以8亿美金的价格便宜地拿下了公司的债务，快速推动公司破产重组，并在这笔交易中大赚了一笔。| 图：橡树资本的在管资产规模这是敢于与众不同的力量，是霍华德·马克斯投资的成功之道，也是橡树资本的资产规模在每一次危机后都能大上一个台阶的商业之道。2008年美国遭遇金融危机，MBS次级债市场一片哀嚎，而弹药充足的橡树资本全仓买入。2008年一年，橡树资本便大赚了60亿美金。以后的每一次危机，似乎都成为了橡树资本最甜蜜的击球区。理解周期的视野秃鹰有的是敏锐的视力，也有利爪和钩嘴。那么霍华德·马克斯的大视野是什么呢？在霍华德·马克斯的基本投资理念里，有几条清晰的主线：投资一定是有周期的；周期一定是逃不开的；宏观择时是不靠谱的；逆向投资、第二层次思维是法门。马克斯喜欢引用马克·吐温的一句话，“历史不会重演，但会押韵”。人有悲欢离合，月有阴晴圆缺，太阳东升西落，都是周期。企业有成长、成熟、衰退的生命周期，行业有萌芽、繁荣、更替的周期，宏观经济有复苏、萧条的周期。理解周期的存在不难，关键是理解周期的原理和必然——为什么人们总是逃不开周期的魔咒？马克斯在2004年备忘录The Happy Medium里提出了一个经典的问题：“自1957年以来的65年，标普500指数的年均回报率是10%，但这期间，为什么只有6年的年回报率在10%上下，而在其余在90%的时间里，实际回报率与平均回报率相差甚远？为什么市场不是以每年10%回报的形式均匀呈现呢？”马克斯的解释是——过度和修正。如果股市是台物理机器，那么是有可能在一段时间内保持相同的韵脚，但实际上股市的参与主体是人，人本性的贪婪与恐惧决定了这是逃不开的市场周期。当市场乐观的时候，人们会认为所有资产价格会永远上涨，总有其他人会接力；而当泡沫破灭极度悲观的时候，人们又匆匆忙忙地想要止损离场，躲在角落里落寞地自我疗愈，不再垂怜市场上那遍地的价值。回首金融市场的历史，总是贪婪与恐惧交替的历史，也总是极度乐观与悲观的周期史，这是经济规律，这是心理规律，这也是社会群体规律。这是市场周期的钟摆，周而复始，生生不息，是“逃不开的周期”。驾驭周期的法门“周期”是马克斯被奉之为“华尔街秃鹰”的大视野，那么马克斯的钩嘴又是什么呢？逃不开的周期下，马克斯投资的长赢之道在哪里？日本文化中的“不确定性哲学”是马克斯年少时就研习并内化的核心思想，纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布是马斯克最推崇的金融学家。或许正是这样的积淀和共鸣，让马克斯在应对周期上，有两个非常重要而笃定的论断：第一，宏观预测不靠谱；第二，市场择时不靠谱。“并非宏观预期不重要，而是重大的宏观转折很难长期保持正确预测，也就很难产生持续价值”，马克斯如是说。无可否定，总有睿智的经济学家可以在某些时点阶段性地成功预测拐点，但是，至今为止，还没有宏观经济学家可以永久正确，无论中外。就像在漫长的资管史上，没有人可以每次都躲过危机并抄底成功一样，靠择时获得的盈利也并不具有长期的可持续性。那么市场的这种基于人性的周期性究竟如何来把握呢？“你不能预测，但可以做好准备”。霍华德·马克斯认为，逆向投资、第二层次思维是克服心理周期的法门：不一样，才能赢。(To think differently and to feel differently.)没有无知与偏见，哪来的议价能力？（If there is no ignorance there is no prejudice where the bargain comes from?）怕，你就输了。（Scared money never wins.）风险属于底部割肉离场的人。（Risk is the likelihood of being forced out at the bottom.）接飞刀是利润之源，控制风险要小心行事。（It’s our job to catch falling knives. That’s how you get bargains. But you have to do it carefully.）反者道之动，弱者道之用。(Aggressive when people are depressive and defensive when people are excited.)白日梦终醒，你准备好了么？(Pipe dreams turn nightmares, and the vultures are ready for the hunt. )把时间来拉回到当下的市场，战争的乌云、新冠的反复、流动性的收缩、房地产的烦扰…… 每个时代总是有扰动大众心绪和涣散信心的一桩桩、一件件。而每当大众在恐慌情绪下纷纷抛售资产、忍痛离场的时候，一代秃鹰霍华德·马克斯却又默默开始了惯常的、预谋已久的、有备而来的“咄咄逼人”。“现在是时候抄底了。”“捡便宜货的时机已成熟。”卧薪尝胆、修身克已于泡沫飞扬年代的霍华德·马克斯终于又等到了抢购“便宜货”的好时候。“我认为等待底部是一个可怕的想法，我们没法断言市场何时触底，但当我们认为能够以折扣价格买入资产、以廉价获得价值时，就可以买了，我们目前所见到的资产可能要比内在价值更便宜，在这种情况下，我们会买更多。”白日梦已醒，马克斯准备好了，你呢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108080861,"gmtCreate":1619960980153,"gmtModify":1704336789164,"author":{"id":"3549859314742531","authorId":"3549859314742531","name":"紐西蘭盧哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a677934b1963ad6aca018df0320e5eaf","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549859314742531","idStr":"3549859314742531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well done ","listText":"Well done ","text":"Well done","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108080861","repostId":"1149032296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149032296","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619870438,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149032296?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-01 20:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Stock God\" Buffett's Q1 report card is here!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149032296","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"伯克希尔哈撒韦今日公布2021年第一季度财报。财报显示，伯克希尔Q1营收645.99亿美元，市场预期635.39亿美元，去年同期612.65亿美元；净利117.11亿美元，市场预期净利润57.71亿美","content":"<p>Berkshire Hathaway announced its first quarter 2021 financial report today. The financial report shows that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Q1 revenue was US $64.599 billion, market expectations were US $63.539 billion, and US $61.265 billion in the same period last year; The net profit was US $11.711 billion, the market expected a net profit of US $5.771 billion, and a net loss of US $49.746 billion in the same period last year; Earnings per share of Class A common stock were US $7,638, compared with losses per share of US $30,653 in the same period last year; Class B common stock earned US $5.09 per share, compared with a loss of US $20.44 per share in the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216193212265363%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The live broadcast of Buffett's shareholders' meeting will begin at 1 a.m. Beijing time on May 2</b></a><b></b></p><p>Berkshire Hathaway earned $7.02 billion in operating profit in the first quarter and repurchased $6.6 billion in shares.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, the top 4 positions are still<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(US $21.4 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>($110.9 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(US $40 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>($21.1 billion), accounting for 69% of the overall stock holdings. At the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the market values of these four major holdings were US $18.3 billion, US $120.4 billion, US $31.3 billion, and US $21.9 billion respectively, accounting for 68% of the total stock holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a0fd89ce8ab62b293a0c1a5873d74\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Berkshire's cash reserves in the first quarter were $145.4 billion, and cash reserves at the end of 2020 were $138.3 billion; Premium income was US $16.424 billion, compared with US $15.748 billion in the same period last year; Sales and service revenue was US $33.698 billion, compared with US $31.926 billion in the same period last year; Rental income was $1.324 billion, compared with $1.428 billion in the same period last year; Interest, dividends and other investment income was US $1.851 billion, compared with US $2.276 billion in the same period last year; Rail, utilities and energy revenue was $11.302 billion, compared to $9.887 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>At the end of the first quarter, Berkshire's insurance float was about $140 billion. Net income from investments and derivatives in the first quarter was US $4.69 billion, compared with a loss of US $55.62 billion in the same period last year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Stock God\" Buffett's Q1 report card is here!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Stock God\" Buffett's Q1 report card is here!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-01 20:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway announced its first quarter 2021 financial report today. The financial report shows that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Q1 revenue was US $64.599 billion, market expectations were US $63.539 billion, and US $61.265 billion in the same period last year; The net profit was US $11.711 billion, the market expected a net profit of US $5.771 billion, and a net loss of US $49.746 billion in the same period last year; Earnings per share of Class A common stock were US $7,638, compared with losses per share of US $30,653 in the same period last year; Class B common stock earned US $5.09 per share, compared with a loss of US $20.44 per share in the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216193212265363%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The live broadcast of Buffett's shareholders' meeting will begin at 1 a.m. Beijing time on May 2</b></a><b></b></p><p>Berkshire Hathaway earned $7.02 billion in operating profit in the first quarter and repurchased $6.6 billion in shares.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, the top 4 positions are still<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(US $21.4 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>($110.9 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(US $40 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>($21.1 billion), accounting for 69% of the overall stock holdings. At the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the market values of these four major holdings were US $18.3 billion, US $120.4 billion, US $31.3 billion, and US $21.9 billion respectively, accounting for 68% of the total stock holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a0fd89ce8ab62b293a0c1a5873d74\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Berkshire's cash reserves in the first quarter were $145.4 billion, and cash reserves at the end of 2020 were $138.3 billion; Premium income was US $16.424 billion, compared with US $15.748 billion in the same period last year; Sales and service revenue was US $33.698 billion, compared with US $31.926 billion in the same period last year; Rental income was $1.324 billion, compared with $1.428 billion in the same period last year; Interest, dividends and other investment income was US $1.851 billion, compared with US $2.276 billion in the same period last year; Rail, utilities and energy revenue was $11.302 billion, compared to $9.887 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>At the end of the first quarter, Berkshire's insurance float was about $140 billion. Net income from investments and derivatives in the first quarter was US $4.69 billion, compared with a loss of US $55.62 billion in the same period last year.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149032296","content_text":"伯克希尔哈撒韦今日公布2021年第一季度财报。财报显示，伯克希尔Q1营收645.99亿美元，市场预期635.39亿美元，去年同期612.65亿美元；净利117.11亿美元，市场预期净利润57.71亿美元，去年同期净亏损497.46亿美元；A类普通股每股盈利7638美元，去年同期每股亏损30653美元；B类普通股每股盈利5.09美元，去年同期每股亏损20.44美元。巴菲特股东大会直播将于北京时间5月2日凌晨1点开始伯克希尔哈撒韦第一季度运营利润70.2亿美元，回购66亿美元股票。截至2021年3月31日，前4大持仓仍为美国运通（214亿美元）、苹果（1109亿美元）、美国银行（400亿美元）、可口可乐（211亿美元），合计占整体股票持仓的69%。去年四季度末，这四大持仓市值分别为183亿美元，1204亿美元，313亿美元，219亿美元，合计占整体股票持仓的68%。伯克希尔第一季度现金储备为1454亿美元，2020年底的现金储备为1383亿美元；保费收入为164.24亿美元，去年同期为157.48亿美元；销售与服务收入为336.98亿美元，去年同期为319.26亿美元；租赁收入为13.24亿美元，去年同期为14.28亿美元；利息、分红和其他投资收入为18.51亿美元，去年同期为22.76亿美元；铁路、公用设施和能源收入为113.02亿美元，去年同期为98.87亿美元。伯克希尔一季度末，保险浮存金约为1400亿美元。一季度投资和衍生品净收益为46.9亿美元，去年同期亏损556.2亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9993872869,"gmtCreate":1660681020256,"gmtModify":1676536375684,"author":{"id":"3549859314742531","authorId":"3549859314742531","name":"紐西蘭盧哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a677934b1963ad6aca018df0320e5eaf","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549859314742531","idStr":"3549859314742531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well done thanks ","listText":"Well done thanks ","text":"Well done thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9993872869","repostId":"1187867519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187867519","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1660656382,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187867519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-16 21:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | How Wall Street Condors hunt for food","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187867519","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"当光鲜的白日梦变成了噩梦，市场秃鹰才悄悄开始肆意猎食。霍华德·马克斯，1946年人。美国沃顿商学院毕业，1968年末开始投身于花旗银行的股票分析行业，师从西格尔教授，谨遵“漂亮50”投资法，投资50家","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>When the glamorous daydream turned into a nightmare, the market bald eagle quietly began to hunt wantonly.</p><p>Howard Marks, 1946. Graduated from Wharton Business School in the United States, and began to devote himself to the stock analysis industry of Citibank at the end of 1968. He studied under Professor Siegel, followed the \"Beautiful 50\" investment method, and invested in 50 of the best and fastest growing companies in the United States. \"Any price It's okay, it doesn't matter\". But after 10 years of hard work, Citibank's \"Nifty 50\" lost 90% of its net worth.</p><p>It has been a long decade of hope and disappointment. It's not just the \"Beautiful 50\" who is stung, but also the young Howard Marks.</p><p><ul><li>\"Experience is what you can get when you don't get what you want\".</p><p></li><li>\"Investment is not a matter of what you buy, but a matter of what price you pay\".</p><p></li><li>\"Investing is not about buying good things, but about buying them well\".</p><p></li></ul>What a painful understanding... And the profound thinking caused by this ups and downs actually created Howard Marks' special investment path, and made him a generation of \"Wall Street Condors\", a great master of contrarian investment, and the king of Wall Street's cycle control.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd687f6d806c07ae4d6cf4722f9769da\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Power to Be Different</b></p><p>The \"Beautiful 50\" with ankle cut made Howard Marks later choose to leave the stock market, which is loved by thousands of people. During the toss and turns, Max was influenced by the junk bond king Michael Milken and turned to the junk bond market in the United States. This was a niche market that few people cared about at the time, but it was people's fear of junk bonds and the disregard of the market that made Max see a huge opportunity.</p><p>\"In 1978, my career really started. For the past 40 years, I have basically been buying those unpopular assets, because when you buy assets that no one else wants, you can buy cheaper things\".</p><p>\"If you buy 3A bonds, there will be no excess returns, but if you buy B-class bonds without default, the returns will be very generous.\"</p><p>From 1994, Howard Marks and partner Bruce Cash founded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>, focusing on investments in the junk bond market. From 1995 to 1998, the Internet industry was thriving, but Oaktree Capital has been waiting patiently like a bald eagle. Until you wait for the rabbit, you will never scatter the eagle. It wasn't until around the bursting of the Millennium Bubble that Max launched an official \"home run\".</p><p>The most representative one is the bankruptcy and reorganization of Regal Cinemas, a cinema chain at that time.</p><p>With the prosperity of the American cinema market, Regal Cinemas expanded its borrowing aggressively in the mid-to-late 1990s. In 1998, as the Federal Reserve raised the borrowing rate and the market turned into a recession, the company began to fall into a debt crisis and was once on the verge of bankruptcy. Investors are afraid of the bleak future market prospects and avoid it. But Wall Street bald eagle and contrarian guru Max smells a big opportunity.</p><p>Although Regal Cinemas is a company on the verge of bankruptcy, due to its good accumulation in the early years, it owns many high-quality commercial real estate projects. If bankruptcy revaluation is carried out, the value of the company's commercial real estate projects will far exceed the company's current neglected market price.</p><p>So, when others panic, Max is rational and greedy. Oaktree Capital took the company's debt cheaply at a price of 800 million US dollars, quickly promoted the company's bankruptcy and reorganization, and made a huge profit in this transaction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfb231ab26e1db3d3db1f3cf0358704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Figure: Oaktree Capital's assets under management</p><p>This is the power of daring to be different, the way Howard Marks invests successfully, and the way Oaktree Capital's asset size can rise to the next level after every crisis. When the United States encountered a financial crisis in 2008, the MBS subprime bond market was in mourning, and Oaktree Capital, which had sufficient ammunition, bought all positions. In 2008, Oaktree Capital made a huge profit of $6 billion. Every crisis in the future seems to have become the sweetest hitting zone of Oaktree Capital.</p><p><b>Understanding the horizon of cycles</b></p><p>Bald eagles have sharp eyesight, but also sharp claws and hooked mouths. So what is Howard Marks'big vision?</p><p>There are several clear threads in Howard Marks' basic investment philosophy:</p><p><ul><li>Investment must be cyclical;</p><p></li><li>There must be no escape from the cycle;</p><p></li><li>Macro timing is unreliable;</p><p></li><li>Reverse investment and second-level thinking are the methods.</p><p></li></ul>Marks likes to quote Mark Twain, \"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes\". People have joys and sorrows, the moon is cloudy and sunny, and the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. They are all cycles. Enterprises have a life cycle of growth, maturity and decline, industries have a cycle of germination, prosperity and replacement, and macroeconomics have a cycle of recovery and depression. It is not difficult to understand the existence of cycles. The key is to understand the principle and necessity of cycles-why can't people always escape the curse of cycles?</p><p>Max's 2004 memo<i><b>The Happy Medium</b></i>A classic question is raised: \"In the 65 years since 1957, the average annual return rate of the S&P 500 index has been 10%, but during this period, why did only six years have an annual return rate of around 10%, and in the remaining 90% of the time, the actual rate of return is far from the average rate of return? Why isn't the market evenly presented in the form of a 10% return per year?\"</p><p><b>Max's explanation is-excesses and corrections.</b></p><p>If the stock market is a physical machine, it is possible to maintain the same rhyme for a period of time, but in fact, the main participants in the stock market are people, and the greed and fear of human nature determine that this is an unescapable market cycle.</p><p>When the market is optimistic, people will think that all asset prices will rise forever, and there will always be others who will relay; And when the bubble burst and was extremely pessimistic, people hurriedly wanted to stop losses and leave the market, hiding in the corner and healing themselves lonely, and no longer pity the value everywhere in the market.</p><p>Looking back at the history of the financial market, there is always a history of alternating greed and fear, and a cyclical history of extreme optimism and pessimism. This is an economic law, a psychological law, and a social group law. This is the pendulum of the market cycle, which goes back and forth, endlessly, and is an \"unescapable cycle\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67285e48328a8b43e2b2b396b1be1acb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The way to control the cycle</b></p><p>\"Cycle\" is the big vision that Max is regarded as the \"Wall Street Condor\", so what is Max's hook mouth? Under the unescapable cycle, where is the long-term winning way for Max Investment?</p><p>The \"philosophy of uncertainty\" in Japanese culture is the core idea that Max studied and internalized when he was young. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is Musk's most admired financial scientist. Perhaps it is this accumulation and resonance that makes Max make two very important and firm conclusions on the coping cycle:</p><p>First, macro forecasts are unreliable;</p><p>Second, market timing is unreliable.</p><p>\"It's not that macro expectations are not important, but that major macro turns are difficult to maintain correct forecasts for a long time, and it is difficult to generate sustained value,\" Marks said. Undeniably, there are always wise economists who can successfully predict the inflection point in stages at certain points in time. However, so far, no macroeconomist can be permanently correct, whether at home or abroad. Just as in the long history of asset management, no one can escape the crisis and succeed in bargain hunting every time, the profits obtained by timing do not have long-term sustainability.</p><p>So how to grasp the periodicity of the market based on human nature?</p><p>\"You can't predict, but you can be prepared\". Howard Marks believes that contrarian investment and second-level thinking are the ways to overcome psychological cycles:</p><p><ul><li>Different, to win. (To think differently and to feel different.)</p><p></li><li>Without ignorance and prejudice, where is the bargaining power? If there is no ignorance there is no prejudice where the bargain comes from?</p><p></li><li>If you are afraid, you lose. Scared money never wins.</p><p></li><li>The risk belongs to those who cut the meat at the bottom and leave the market. Risk is the likelihood of being forced out at the bottom.</p><p></li><li>Taking flying knives is the source of profit, so you should be careful in controlling risks. It's our job to catch falling knives. That's how you get bargains. But you have to do it carefully.</p><p></li><li>The opposite is the movement of the Tao, and the weak is the use of the Tao. (Aggressive when people are depressive and defensive when people are excited.)</p><p></li><li>Daydream finally wakes up, are you ready? (Pipe dreams turn nightmares, and the cultures are ready for the hunt.)</p><p></li></ul>Bring time back to the current market, the dark clouds of war, the recurrence of COVID-19, the contraction of liquidity, the trouble of real estate... Every era always has a pile of disturbances that disturb the public's mood and lack confidence. Whenever the public sells their assets and reluctantly leaves the market in panic, Howard Marks, a generation of vultures, silently starts his usual, long-planned and prepared \"aggressiveness\".</p><p><ul><li>\"Now it's time to buy the bottom.\"</p><p></li><li>\"The time is ripe for a bargain.\"</p><p></li></ul>Howard Marks, who has been in the bubble era, finally waited for a good time to snap up \"bargains\".</p><p><ul><li>\"I think waiting for the bottom is a terrible idea. We can't say when the market will bottom out, but when we think we can buy assets at a discount and get value at a cheap price, we can buy it. What we are seeing so far Assets may be cheaper than intrinsic value, in which case we will buy more.\"</p><p></li></ul>The daydream is awake, Max is ready, how about you?</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | How Wall Street Condors hunt for food</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | How Wall Street Condors hunt for food\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-16 21:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>When the glamorous daydream turned into a nightmare, the market bald eagle quietly began to hunt wantonly.</p><p>Howard Marks, 1946. Graduated from Wharton Business School in the United States, and began to devote himself to the stock analysis industry of Citibank at the end of 1968. He studied under Professor Siegel, followed the \"Beautiful 50\" investment method, and invested in 50 of the best and fastest growing companies in the United States. \"Any price It's okay, it doesn't matter\". But after 10 years of hard work, Citibank's \"Nifty 50\" lost 90% of its net worth.</p><p>It has been a long decade of hope and disappointment. It's not just the \"Beautiful 50\" who is stung, but also the young Howard Marks.</p><p><ul><li>\"Experience is what you can get when you don't get what you want\".</p><p></li><li>\"Investment is not a matter of what you buy, but a matter of what price you pay\".</p><p></li><li>\"Investing is not about buying good things, but about buying them well\".</p><p></li></ul>What a painful understanding... And the profound thinking caused by this ups and downs actually created Howard Marks' special investment path, and made him a generation of \"Wall Street Condors\", a great master of contrarian investment, and the king of Wall Street's cycle control.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd687f6d806c07ae4d6cf4722f9769da\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Power to Be Different</b></p><p>The \"Beautiful 50\" with ankle cut made Howard Marks later choose to leave the stock market, which is loved by thousands of people. During the toss and turns, Max was influenced by the junk bond king Michael Milken and turned to the junk bond market in the United States. This was a niche market that few people cared about at the time, but it was people's fear of junk bonds and the disregard of the market that made Max see a huge opportunity.</p><p>\"In 1978, my career really started. For the past 40 years, I have basically been buying those unpopular assets, because when you buy assets that no one else wants, you can buy cheaper things\".</p><p>\"If you buy 3A bonds, there will be no excess returns, but if you buy B-class bonds without default, the returns will be very generous.\"</p><p>From 1994, Howard Marks and partner Bruce Cash founded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>, focusing on investments in the junk bond market. From 1995 to 1998, the Internet industry was thriving, but Oaktree Capital has been waiting patiently like a bald eagle. Until you wait for the rabbit, you will never scatter the eagle. It wasn't until around the bursting of the Millennium Bubble that Max launched an official \"home run\".</p><p>The most representative one is the bankruptcy and reorganization of Regal Cinemas, a cinema chain at that time.</p><p>With the prosperity of the American cinema market, Regal Cinemas expanded its borrowing aggressively in the mid-to-late 1990s. In 1998, as the Federal Reserve raised the borrowing rate and the market turned into a recession, the company began to fall into a debt crisis and was once on the verge of bankruptcy. Investors are afraid of the bleak future market prospects and avoid it. But Wall Street bald eagle and contrarian guru Max smells a big opportunity.</p><p>Although Regal Cinemas is a company on the verge of bankruptcy, due to its good accumulation in the early years, it owns many high-quality commercial real estate projects. If bankruptcy revaluation is carried out, the value of the company's commercial real estate projects will far exceed the company's current neglected market price.</p><p>So, when others panic, Max is rational and greedy. Oaktree Capital took the company's debt cheaply at a price of 800 million US dollars, quickly promoted the company's bankruptcy and reorganization, and made a huge profit in this transaction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfb231ab26e1db3d3db1f3cf0358704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Figure: Oaktree Capital's assets under management</p><p>This is the power of daring to be different, the way Howard Marks invests successfully, and the way Oaktree Capital's asset size can rise to the next level after every crisis. When the United States encountered a financial crisis in 2008, the MBS subprime bond market was in mourning, and Oaktree Capital, which had sufficient ammunition, bought all positions. In 2008, Oaktree Capital made a huge profit of $6 billion. Every crisis in the future seems to have become the sweetest hitting zone of Oaktree Capital.</p><p><b>Understanding the horizon of cycles</b></p><p>Bald eagles have sharp eyesight, but also sharp claws and hooked mouths. So what is Howard Marks'big vision?</p><p>There are several clear threads in Howard Marks' basic investment philosophy:</p><p><ul><li>Investment must be cyclical;</p><p></li><li>There must be no escape from the cycle;</p><p></li><li>Macro timing is unreliable;</p><p></li><li>Reverse investment and second-level thinking are the methods.</p><p></li></ul>Marks likes to quote Mark Twain, \"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes\". People have joys and sorrows, the moon is cloudy and sunny, and the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. They are all cycles. Enterprises have a life cycle of growth, maturity and decline, industries have a cycle of germination, prosperity and replacement, and macroeconomics have a cycle of recovery and depression. It is not difficult to understand the existence of cycles. The key is to understand the principle and necessity of cycles-why can't people always escape the curse of cycles?</p><p>Max's 2004 memo<i><b>The Happy Medium</b></i>A classic question is raised: \"In the 65 years since 1957, the average annual return rate of the S&P 500 index has been 10%, but during this period, why did only six years have an annual return rate of around 10%, and in the remaining 90% of the time, the actual rate of return is far from the average rate of return? Why isn't the market evenly presented in the form of a 10% return per year?\"</p><p><b>Max's explanation is-excesses and corrections.</b></p><p>If the stock market is a physical machine, it is possible to maintain the same rhyme for a period of time, but in fact, the main participants in the stock market are people, and the greed and fear of human nature determine that this is an unescapable market cycle.</p><p>When the market is optimistic, people will think that all asset prices will rise forever, and there will always be others who will relay; And when the bubble burst and was extremely pessimistic, people hurriedly wanted to stop losses and leave the market, hiding in the corner and healing themselves lonely, and no longer pity the value everywhere in the market.</p><p>Looking back at the history of the financial market, there is always a history of alternating greed and fear, and a cyclical history of extreme optimism and pessimism. This is an economic law, a psychological law, and a social group law. This is the pendulum of the market cycle, which goes back and forth, endlessly, and is an \"unescapable cycle\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67285e48328a8b43e2b2b396b1be1acb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The way to control the cycle</b></p><p>\"Cycle\" is the big vision that Max is regarded as the \"Wall Street Condor\", so what is Max's hook mouth? Under the unescapable cycle, where is the long-term winning way for Max Investment?</p><p>The \"philosophy of uncertainty\" in Japanese culture is the core idea that Max studied and internalized when he was young. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is Musk's most admired financial scientist. Perhaps it is this accumulation and resonance that makes Max make two very important and firm conclusions on the coping cycle:</p><p>First, macro forecasts are unreliable;</p><p>Second, market timing is unreliable.</p><p>\"It's not that macro expectations are not important, but that major macro turns are difficult to maintain correct forecasts for a long time, and it is difficult to generate sustained value,\" Marks said. Undeniably, there are always wise economists who can successfully predict the inflection point in stages at certain points in time. However, so far, no macroeconomist can be permanently correct, whether at home or abroad. Just as in the long history of asset management, no one can escape the crisis and succeed in bargain hunting every time, the profits obtained by timing do not have long-term sustainability.</p><p>So how to grasp the periodicity of the market based on human nature?</p><p>\"You can't predict, but you can be prepared\". Howard Marks believes that contrarian investment and second-level thinking are the ways to overcome psychological cycles:</p><p><ul><li>Different, to win. (To think differently and to feel different.)</p><p></li><li>Without ignorance and prejudice, where is the bargaining power? If there is no ignorance there is no prejudice where the bargain comes from?</p><p></li><li>If you are afraid, you lose. Scared money never wins.</p><p></li><li>The risk belongs to those who cut the meat at the bottom and leave the market. Risk is the likelihood of being forced out at the bottom.</p><p></li><li>Taking flying knives is the source of profit, so you should be careful in controlling risks. It's our job to catch falling knives. That's how you get bargains. But you have to do it carefully.</p><p></li><li>The opposite is the movement of the Tao, and the weak is the use of the Tao. (Aggressive when people are depressive and defensive when people are excited.)</p><p></li><li>Daydream finally wakes up, are you ready? (Pipe dreams turn nightmares, and the cultures are ready for the hunt.)</p><p></li></ul>Bring time back to the current market, the dark clouds of war, the recurrence of COVID-19, the contraction of liquidity, the trouble of real estate... Every era always has a pile of disturbances that disturb the public's mood and lack confidence. Whenever the public sells their assets and reluctantly leaves the market in panic, Howard Marks, a generation of vultures, silently starts his usual, long-planned and prepared \"aggressiveness\".</p><p><ul><li>\"Now it's time to buy the bottom.\"</p><p></li><li>\"The time is ripe for a bargain.\"</p><p></li></ul>Howard Marks, who has been in the bubble era, finally waited for a good time to snap up \"bargains\".</p><p><ul><li>\"I think waiting for the bottom is a terrible idea. We can't say when the market will bottom out, but when we think we can buy assets at a discount and get value at a cheap price, we can buy it. What we are seeing so far Assets may be cheaper than intrinsic value, in which case we will buy more.\"</p><p></li></ul>The daydream is awake, Max is ready, how about you?</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a1ad69d0f22cf17bf15da18df75402","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187867519","content_text":"当光鲜的白日梦变成了噩梦，市场秃鹰才悄悄开始肆意猎食。霍华德·马克斯，1946年人。美国沃顿商学院毕业，1968年末开始投身于花旗银行的股票分析行业，师从西格尔教授，谨遵“漂亮50”投资法，投资50家美国最好、发展最快的公司，“任何价格都可以，没关系”。可苦苦挨了10年，花旗银行的“漂亮50”跌去了90%的净值。这是希望与失望的漫漫十年。被刺痛的也不止是“漂亮50”，更是年轻的霍华德·马克斯。“所谓经验就是当你没有得到你想要东西的时候你所能得到的”。“投资不是你买什么的问题，而是你付出什么价格的问题”。“投资不是买好东西，而是买得好”。多么痛彻的领悟……而这段坎坷引发的深刻思考反倒是造就了霍华德·马克斯特别的投资之路，成就了一代“华尔街秃鹰”、伟大的逆向投资大师、华尔街驾驭周期的王。敢于与众不同的力量脚踝斩的“漂亮50”让霍华德·马克斯后来选择离开了备受万千宠爱的股票市场。辗转间，马克斯受垃圾债大王迈克尔·米尔肯的影响，转向了美国的垃圾债市场。这是个在当时少有人问津的小众市场，但是正是人们对垃圾债的畏惧心理和市场的无视，让马克斯看到了巨大的机会。“1978年，我的职业生涯才真正开始，在过去的40年里，我基本上都是在买那些不受欢迎的资产，因为当你买别人都不想要的资产时，才能买到更便宜的东西”。“如果你买3A债，没有任何超额收益，但买B级债如果没有违约，收益会非常丰厚”。从1994年起，霍华德·马克斯与合伙人布鲁斯·卡什创立了橡树资本，专注于垃圾债市场的投资。1995年到1998年间，互联网行业欣欣向荣，但橡树资本一直像秃鹰一样耐心守候。没等到兔子，便绝不撒鹰。直到千禧泡沫破裂的前后，马克斯才展开了正式的“本垒打”。最有代表性的是当时影院连锁企业Regal Cinemas的破产重组。伴随着美国影院市场的繁荣，Regal Cinemas在90年代中后期大肆借贷扩张，1998年随着联储提高借贷利率和市场转入不景气，公司开始陷入债务危机，一度徘徊于破产边缘。投资人忌惮于未来市场前景的黯淡，纷纷避之而不及。但华尔街秃鹰、逆向投资大师马克斯却嗅到了大机会。Regal Cinemas虽是一家濒临破产的公司，但由于早年的良好积累，其旗下拥有很多优质的商业地产项目，如果进行破产重估，公司的商业地产项目价值会远超公司当前无人问津的市场价格。于是，别人恐慌的时候，马克斯理性而贪婪。橡树资本以8亿美金的价格便宜地拿下了公司的债务，快速推动公司破产重组，并在这笔交易中大赚了一笔。| 图：橡树资本的在管资产规模这是敢于与众不同的力量，是霍华德·马克斯投资的成功之道，也是橡树资本的资产规模在每一次危机后都能大上一个台阶的商业之道。2008年美国遭遇金融危机，MBS次级债市场一片哀嚎，而弹药充足的橡树资本全仓买入。2008年一年，橡树资本便大赚了60亿美金。以后的每一次危机，似乎都成为了橡树资本最甜蜜的击球区。理解周期的视野秃鹰有的是敏锐的视力，也有利爪和钩嘴。那么霍华德·马克斯的大视野是什么呢？在霍华德·马克斯的基本投资理念里，有几条清晰的主线：投资一定是有周期的；周期一定是逃不开的；宏观择时是不靠谱的；逆向投资、第二层次思维是法门。马克斯喜欢引用马克·吐温的一句话，“历史不会重演，但会押韵”。人有悲欢离合，月有阴晴圆缺，太阳东升西落，都是周期。企业有成长、成熟、衰退的生命周期，行业有萌芽、繁荣、更替的周期，宏观经济有复苏、萧条的周期。理解周期的存在不难，关键是理解周期的原理和必然——为什么人们总是逃不开周期的魔咒？马克斯在2004年备忘录The Happy Medium里提出了一个经典的问题：“自1957年以来的65年，标普500指数的年均回报率是10%，但这期间，为什么只有6年的年回报率在10%上下，而在其余在90%的时间里，实际回报率与平均回报率相差甚远？为什么市场不是以每年10%回报的形式均匀呈现呢？”马克斯的解释是——过度和修正。如果股市是台物理机器，那么是有可能在一段时间内保持相同的韵脚，但实际上股市的参与主体是人，人本性的贪婪与恐惧决定了这是逃不开的市场周期。当市场乐观的时候，人们会认为所有资产价格会永远上涨，总有其他人会接力；而当泡沫破灭极度悲观的时候，人们又匆匆忙忙地想要止损离场，躲在角落里落寞地自我疗愈，不再垂怜市场上那遍地的价值。回首金融市场的历史，总是贪婪与恐惧交替的历史，也总是极度乐观与悲观的周期史，这是经济规律，这是心理规律，这也是社会群体规律。这是市场周期的钟摆，周而复始，生生不息，是“逃不开的周期”。驾驭周期的法门“周期”是马克斯被奉之为“华尔街秃鹰”的大视野，那么马克斯的钩嘴又是什么呢？逃不开的周期下，马克斯投资的长赢之道在哪里？日本文化中的“不确定性哲学”是马克斯年少时就研习并内化的核心思想，纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布是马斯克最推崇的金融学家。或许正是这样的积淀和共鸣，让马克斯在应对周期上，有两个非常重要而笃定的论断：第一，宏观预测不靠谱；第二，市场择时不靠谱。“并非宏观预期不重要，而是重大的宏观转折很难长期保持正确预测，也就很难产生持续价值”，马克斯如是说。无可否定，总有睿智的经济学家可以在某些时点阶段性地成功预测拐点，但是，至今为止，还没有宏观经济学家可以永久正确，无论中外。就像在漫长的资管史上，没有人可以每次都躲过危机并抄底成功一样，靠择时获得的盈利也并不具有长期的可持续性。那么市场的这种基于人性的周期性究竟如何来把握呢？“你不能预测，但可以做好准备”。霍华德·马克斯认为，逆向投资、第二层次思维是克服心理周期的法门：不一样，才能赢。(To think differently and to feel differently.)没有无知与偏见，哪来的议价能力？（If there is no ignorance there is no prejudice where the bargain comes from?）怕，你就输了。（Scared money never wins.）风险属于底部割肉离场的人。（Risk is the likelihood of being forced out at the bottom.）接飞刀是利润之源，控制风险要小心行事。（It’s our job to catch falling knives. That’s how you get bargains. But you have to do it carefully.）反者道之动，弱者道之用。(Aggressive when people are depressive and defensive when people are excited.)白日梦终醒，你准备好了么？(Pipe dreams turn nightmares, and the vultures are ready for the hunt. )把时间来拉回到当下的市场，战争的乌云、新冠的反复、流动性的收缩、房地产的烦扰…… 每个时代总是有扰动大众心绪和涣散信心的一桩桩、一件件。而每当大众在恐慌情绪下纷纷抛售资产、忍痛离场的时候，一代秃鹰霍华德·马克斯却又默默开始了惯常的、预谋已久的、有备而来的“咄咄逼人”。“现在是时候抄底了。”“捡便宜货的时机已成熟。”卧薪尝胆、修身克已于泡沫飞扬年代的霍华德·马克斯终于又等到了抢购“便宜货”的好时候。“我认为等待底部是一个可怕的想法，我们没法断言市场何时触底，但当我们认为能够以折扣价格买入资产、以廉价获得价值时，就可以买了，我们目前所见到的资产可能要比内在价值更便宜，在这种情况下，我们会买更多。”白日梦已醒，马克斯准备好了，你呢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955289644,"gmtCreate":1675448383789,"gmtModify":1676539003903,"author":{"id":"3549859314742531","authorId":"3549859314742531","name":"紐西蘭盧哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a677934b1963ad6aca018df0320e5eaf","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549859314742531","idStr":"3549859314742531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DQ\">$大全新能源(DQ)$ </a>Q","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DQ\">$大全新能源(DQ)$ </a>Q","text":"$大全新能源(DQ)$ 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CAI.AU\">$Calidus(CAI.AU)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CAI.AU\">$Calidus(CAI.AU)$ </a>","text":"$Calidus(CAI.AU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942496232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958784760,"gmtCreate":1673828882851,"gmtModify":1676538890279,"author":{"id":"3549859314742531","authorId":"3549859314742531","name":"紐西蘭盧哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a677934b1963ad6aca018df0320e5eaf","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549859314742531","idStr":"3549859314742531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PNN.AU\">$Pepinnini Minerals Ltd(PNN.AU)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PNN.AU\">$Pepinnini Minerals Ltd(PNN.AU)$ </a>","text":"$Pepinnini Minerals Ltd(PNN.AU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958784760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969296891,"gmtCreate":1668459577713,"gmtModify":1676538057984,"author":{"id":"3549859314742531","authorId":"3549859314742531","name":"紐西蘭盧哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a677934b1963ad6aca018df0320e5eaf","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549859314742531","idStr":"3549859314742531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VWE\">$Vintage Wine Estates Inc.(VWE)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VWE\">$Vintage Wine Estates Inc.(VWE)$ </a>","text":"$Vintage Wine Estates Inc.(VWE)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969296891","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108080861,"gmtCreate":1619960980153,"gmtModify":1704336789164,"author":{"id":"3549859314742531","authorId":"3549859314742531","name":"紐西蘭盧哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a677934b1963ad6aca018df0320e5eaf","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549859314742531","idStr":"3549859314742531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well done ","listText":"Well done ","text":"Well done","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108080861","repostId":"1149032296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149032296","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619870438,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149032296?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-01 20:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Stock God\" Buffett's Q1 report card is here!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149032296","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"伯克希尔哈撒韦今日公布2021年第一季度财报。财报显示，伯克希尔Q1营收645.99亿美元，市场预期635.39亿美元，去年同期612.65亿美元；净利117.11亿美元，市场预期净利润57.71亿美","content":"<p>Berkshire Hathaway announced its first quarter 2021 financial report today. The financial report shows that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Q1 revenue was US $64.599 billion, market expectations were US $63.539 billion, and US $61.265 billion in the same period last year; The net profit was US $11.711 billion, the market expected a net profit of US $5.771 billion, and a net loss of US $49.746 billion in the same period last year; Earnings per share of Class A common stock were US $7,638, compared with losses per share of US $30,653 in the same period last year; Class B common stock earned US $5.09 per share, compared with a loss of US $20.44 per share in the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216193212265363%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The live broadcast of Buffett's shareholders' meeting will begin at 1 a.m. Beijing time on May 2</b></a><b></b></p><p>Berkshire Hathaway earned $7.02 billion in operating profit in the first quarter and repurchased $6.6 billion in shares.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, the top 4 positions are still<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(US $21.4 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>($110.9 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(US $40 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>($21.1 billion), accounting for 69% of the overall stock holdings. At the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the market values of these four major holdings were US $18.3 billion, US $120.4 billion, US $31.3 billion, and US $21.9 billion respectively, accounting for 68% of the total stock holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a0fd89ce8ab62b293a0c1a5873d74\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Berkshire's cash reserves in the first quarter were $145.4 billion, and cash reserves at the end of 2020 were $138.3 billion; Premium income was US $16.424 billion, compared with US $15.748 billion in the same period last year; Sales and service revenue was US $33.698 billion, compared with US $31.926 billion in the same period last year; Rental income was $1.324 billion, compared with $1.428 billion in the same period last year; Interest, dividends and other investment income was US $1.851 billion, compared with US $2.276 billion in the same period last year; Rail, utilities and energy revenue was $11.302 billion, compared to $9.887 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>At the end of the first quarter, Berkshire's insurance float was about $140 billion. Net income from investments and derivatives in the first quarter was US $4.69 billion, compared with a loss of US $55.62 billion in the same period last year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Stock God\" Buffett's Q1 report card is here!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Stock God\" Buffett's Q1 report card is here!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-01 20:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway announced its first quarter 2021 financial report today. The financial report shows that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Q1 revenue was US $64.599 billion, market expectations were US $63.539 billion, and US $61.265 billion in the same period last year; The net profit was US $11.711 billion, the market expected a net profit of US $5.771 billion, and a net loss of US $49.746 billion in the same period last year; Earnings per share of Class A common stock were US $7,638, compared with losses per share of US $30,653 in the same period last year; Class B common stock earned US $5.09 per share, compared with a loss of US $20.44 per share in the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216193212265363%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The live broadcast of Buffett's shareholders' meeting will begin at 1 a.m. Beijing time on May 2</b></a><b></b></p><p>Berkshire Hathaway earned $7.02 billion in operating profit in the first quarter and repurchased $6.6 billion in shares.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, the top 4 positions are still<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(US $21.4 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>($110.9 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(US $40 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>($21.1 billion), accounting for 69% of the overall stock holdings. At the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the market values of these four major holdings were US $18.3 billion, US $120.4 billion, US $31.3 billion, and US $21.9 billion respectively, accounting for 68% of the total stock holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a0fd89ce8ab62b293a0c1a5873d74\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Berkshire's cash reserves in the first quarter were $145.4 billion, and cash reserves at the end of 2020 were $138.3 billion; Premium income was US $16.424 billion, compared with US $15.748 billion in the same period last year; Sales and service revenue was US $33.698 billion, compared with US $31.926 billion in the same period last year; Rental income was $1.324 billion, compared with $1.428 billion in the same period last year; Interest, dividends and other investment income was US $1.851 billion, compared with US $2.276 billion in the same period last year; Rail, utilities and energy revenue was $11.302 billion, compared to $9.887 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>At the end of the first quarter, Berkshire's insurance float was about $140 billion. Net income from investments and derivatives in the first quarter was US $4.69 billion, compared with a loss of US $55.62 billion in the same period last year.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149032296","content_text":"伯克希尔哈撒韦今日公布2021年第一季度财报。财报显示，伯克希尔Q1营收645.99亿美元，市场预期635.39亿美元，去年同期612.65亿美元；净利117.11亿美元，市场预期净利润57.71亿美元，去年同期净亏损497.46亿美元；A类普通股每股盈利7638美元，去年同期每股亏损30653美元；B类普通股每股盈利5.09美元，去年同期每股亏损20.44美元。巴菲特股东大会直播将于北京时间5月2日凌晨1点开始伯克希尔哈撒韦第一季度运营利润70.2亿美元，回购66亿美元股票。截至2021年3月31日，前4大持仓仍为美国运通（214亿美元）、苹果（1109亿美元）、美国银行（400亿美元）、可口可乐（211亿美元），合计占整体股票持仓的69%。去年四季度末，这四大持仓市值分别为183亿美元，1204亿美元，313亿美元，219亿美元，合计占整体股票持仓的68%。伯克希尔第一季度现金储备为1454亿美元，2020年底的现金储备为1383亿美元；保费收入为164.24亿美元，去年同期为157.48亿美元；销售与服务收入为336.98亿美元，去年同期为319.26亿美元；租赁收入为13.24亿美元，去年同期为14.28亿美元；利息、分红和其他投资收入为18.51亿美元，去年同期为22.76亿美元；铁路、公用设施和能源收入为113.02亿美元，去年同期为98.87亿美元。伯克希尔一季度末，保险浮存金约为1400亿美元。一季度投资和衍生品净收益为46.9亿美元，去年同期亏损556.2亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
