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2024-03-15

$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$

2021-06-21

l

@华商韬略:國貨驚豔618：安踏增速大幅領先，耐克阿迪遭滑鐵盧

2021-04-29

Nothing new ?

When will the Fed scale back QE?

2021-03-03

??

After being stuck for half a year, SMIC finally took a breath

2021-02-24

Great!!!

Just now, the US stock market was in shock! Federal Reserve Chairman Speaks: Easing Continues! The big reversal is coming

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Y92.SI\">$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Y92.SI\">$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284534079942960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164552265,"gmtCreate":1624231241057,"gmtModify":1703830852481,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"l","listText":"l","text":"l","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164552265","repostId":"164635550","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":164635550,"gmtCreate":1624193580000,"gmtModify":1703830515266,"author":{"id":"3524105760314666","authorId":"3524105760314666","name":"华商韬略","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbcbbcdfdd125576e4d9038a38b0dc86","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524105760314666","authorIdStr":"3524105760314666"},"themes":[],"title":"國貨驚豔618：安踏增速大幅領先，耐克阿迪遭滑鐵盧","htmlText":"今年的618，安踏戰績驕人。 持續大半個月的618大促，終於落下了帷幕，從天貓公佈的數據來看，不少行業的銷量，在往年基礎上有了大幅增長。 不過，在運動鞋服類目，兩大外資巨頭——耐克和阿迪卻出現了大幅下滑，下滑比例均接近30%。與之形成鮮明對比的，是中國運動品牌的不俗表現，其中安踏（2020.HK）在天貓618期間（6月1日-6月18日）銷量同比增長超過50%，銷售額超過5億元，成爲國貨崛起的品牌樣本。 安踏之所以取得如此亮眼成績的一個重要原因，是隨着國內新冠疫苗大規模接種，民衆對於疫情的恐慌情緒逐步減輕，戶外運動需求較之去年出現大幅增長，受益於此，運動產品消費需求日趨旺盛。 從今年天貓618大促公佈的數據中，我們不難發現，儘管排在運動鞋服類目前五位，但耐克和阿迪達斯的同比銷售額都出現了大幅下滑的情況。 相比之下，以安踏爲代表的國產陣營則增長迅猛，安踏在運動鞋服的增長率分別達到61%和26%，進一步引領國產品牌搶奪更多市場。從運動鞋服的整體銷售額來看，安踏銷量增長50%，逼近6億元人民幣大關，超出第二名李寧銷量6千餘萬元。 很顯然新疆棉事件依然在影響着國內消費者的購買選擇，國民消費漸向國牌的趨勢越發明顯。 打鐵還需自身硬，這一次“新疆棉花”只是觸發點而非決定性因素。此前十多年，以安踏、李寧爲代表的中國頭部品牌，蓄勢已久。 與2008年那一撥體育用品民族品牌的猝然爆發不同，今天中國體育用品吃得不只是民族感情的紅利。產品、品牌、國家自豪感，多波次疊加成就了中國品牌的強勢地位。 這一次，中國品牌突入而至的歷史機遇，不僅能拿得住更能拿得穩、拿得久。 新疆棉事件以來，尤其是簽約王一博後，安踏在產品科研實力及設計上的突破得以被越來越多的中國消費者看到，並逐漸受追捧，這也直接反映在天貓618大促的數據上。 安踏連續贊助了8屆奧運會，爲29支中國國家隊打造過奧運裝備，在2019年還成爲了首個","listText":"今年的618，安踏戰績驕人。 持續大半個月的618大促，終於落下了帷幕，從天貓公佈的數據來看，不少行業的銷量，在往年基礎上有了大幅增長。 不過，在運動鞋服類目，兩大外資巨頭——耐克和阿迪卻出現了大幅下滑，下滑比例均接近30%。與之形成鮮明對比的，是中國運動品牌的不俗表現，其中安踏（2020.HK）在天貓618期間（6月1日-6月18日）銷量同比增長超過50%，銷售額超過5億元，成爲國貨崛起的品牌樣本。 安踏之所以取得如此亮眼成績的一個重要原因，是隨着國內新冠疫苗大規模接種，民衆對於疫情的恐慌情緒逐步減輕，戶外運動需求較之去年出現大幅增長，受益於此，運動產品消費需求日趨旺盛。 從今年天貓618大促公佈的數據中，我們不難發現，儘管排在運動鞋服類目前五位，但耐克和阿迪達斯的同比銷售額都出現了大幅下滑的情況。 相比之下，以安踏爲代表的國產陣營則增長迅猛，安踏在運動鞋服的增長率分別達到61%和26%，進一步引領國產品牌搶奪更多市場。從運動鞋服的整體銷售額來看，安踏銷量增長50%，逼近6億元人民幣大關，超出第二名李寧銷量6千餘萬元。 很顯然新疆棉事件依然在影響着國內消費者的購買選擇，國民消費漸向國牌的趨勢越發明顯。 打鐵還需自身硬，這一次“新疆棉花”只是觸發點而非決定性因素。此前十多年，以安踏、李寧爲代表的中國頭部品牌，蓄勢已久。 與2008年那一撥體育用品民族品牌的猝然爆發不同，今天中國體育用品吃得不只是民族感情的紅利。產品、品牌、國家自豪感，多波次疊加成就了中國品牌的強勢地位。 這一次，中國品牌突入而至的歷史機遇，不僅能拿得住更能拿得穩、拿得久。 新疆棉事件以來，尤其是簽約王一博後，安踏在產品科研實力及設計上的突破得以被越來越多的中國消費者看到，並逐漸受追捧，這也直接反映在天貓618大促的數據上。 安踏連續贊助了8屆奧運會，爲29支中國國家隊打造過奧運裝備，在2019年還成爲了首個","text":"今年的618，安踏戰績驕人。 持續大半個月的618大促，終於落下了帷幕，從天貓公佈的數據來看，不少行業的銷量，在往年基礎上有了大幅增長。 不過，在運動鞋服類目，兩大外資巨頭——耐克和阿迪卻出現了大幅下滑，下滑比例均接近30%。與之形成鮮明對比的，是中國運動品牌的不俗表現，其中安踏（2020.HK）在天貓618期間（6月1日-6月18日）銷量同比增長超過50%，銷售額超過5億元，成爲國貨崛起的品牌樣本。 安踏之所以取得如此亮眼成績的一個重要原因，是隨着國內新冠疫苗大規模接種，民衆對於疫情的恐慌情緒逐步減輕，戶外運動需求較之去年出現大幅增長，受益於此，運動產品消費需求日趨旺盛。 從今年天貓618大促公佈的數據中，我們不難發現，儘管排在運動鞋服類目前五位，但耐克和阿迪達斯的同比銷售額都出現了大幅下滑的情況。 相比之下，以安踏爲代表的國產陣營則增長迅猛，安踏在運動鞋服的增長率分別達到61%和26%，進一步引領國產品牌搶奪更多市場。從運動鞋服的整體銷售額來看，安踏銷量增長50%，逼近6億元人民幣大關，超出第二名李寧銷量6千餘萬元。 很顯然新疆棉事件依然在影響着國內消費者的購買選擇，國民消費漸向國牌的趨勢越發明顯。 打鐵還需自身硬，這一次“新疆棉花”只是觸發點而非決定性因素。此前十多年，以安踏、李寧爲代表的中國頭部品牌，蓄勢已久。 與2008年那一撥體育用品民族品牌的猝然爆發不同，今天中國體育用品吃得不只是民族感情的紅利。產品、品牌、國家自豪感，多波次疊加成就了中國品牌的強勢地位。 這一次，中國品牌突入而至的歷史機遇，不僅能拿得住更能拿得穩、拿得久。 新疆棉事件以來，尤其是簽約王一博後，安踏在產品科研實力及設計上的突破得以被越來越多的中國消費者看到，並逐漸受追捧，這也直接反映在天貓618大促的數據上。 安踏連續贊助了8屆奧運會，爲29支中國國家隊打造過奧運裝備，在2019年還成爲了首個","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85564b62f87f4858884908d247e13eb4","width":"640","height":"174"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47b18741afe04fd9a856df4d7d257d13","width":"1080","height":"723"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fee16ce0ab84269abca3544290215ea","width":"1080","height":"1600"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164635550","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109804596,"gmtCreate":1619679802215,"gmtModify":1704727883838,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nothing new ?","listText":"Nothing new ?","text":"Nothing new ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109804596","repostId":"1199597620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199597620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619678199,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199597620?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 14:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When will the Fed scale back QE?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199597620","media":" 明晰笔谈","summary":"核心观点\n北京时间4月29日凌晨，美联储公布4月议息会议结果。利率工具方面，将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变的决议得到所有委员一致同意，美联储重申将维持利率在当前水平直至确信经济度过危机，实现其最大","content":"<p><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p><b>In the early morning of April 29, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its April interest rate meeting. In terms of interest rate instruments, the resolution to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed by all members. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it would keep interest rates at the current level until it was convinced that the economy had survived the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement kept the excess reserve ratio (IOER) unchanged at 0.1% and the discount rate unchanged at 0.25%. In terms of asset purchases, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than US $80 billion per month and no less than US $80 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made in achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. Purchase MBS at a rate of no less than US $40 billion, increase holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS, purchase CMBS as needed, and continue overnight reverse repurchase and repurchase operations. In terms of economic expectations, the Fed removed the statement that \"after the pace of recovery slowed, economic activity and employment indicators have recently picked up, although the sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak; inflation continues to be below 2%\", replacing it with \"Economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. The sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak, but have improved; inflation has risen, mainly reflecting temporary factors\", with some adjustments based on the minutes of the March interest rate meeting.</b></p><p><b>Recent fundamentals of the United States: In terms of the epidemic,</b>The overall epidemic situation in the United States is relatively stable, and the popularization of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel controls.<b>Employment,</b>In March, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States was higher than expected and the previous value. The accelerated vaccination speed, the relatively stable performance of the epidemic, and the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus to provide funds for enterprises jointly promoted the continued acceleration of employment improvement.<b>In terms of inflation,</b>The low base caused by the epidemic in the same period last year pushed U.S. inflation higher year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sub-item, and rising inflation expectations were fulfilled to a certain extent.<b>Consumption,</b>The US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the epidemic have jointly promoted the outstanding performance of U.S. consumption. Consumer confidence is gradually picking up, but there is still room for improvement.<b>In terms of investment,</b>New orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods except transportation both returned to positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods except transportation recorded a new high again after January this year, and investment in the United States rebounded moderately.<b>In terms of economic prosperity,</b>Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in the United States exceeded expectations in March, reflecting the current acceleration of the recovery of the U.S. economy with the support of the stable epidemic and fiscal policy.</p><p><b>Comments: The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccine injections in the United States and recent economic data in the United States.</b>The Fed mentioned in its statement that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement; At the last meeting, the Fed's view was that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remained weak. At the same time, the Fed's statement also indicated that it believes that the risks have also been reduced. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook is still at risk at this meeting, compared with the last view-which poses considerable risks to the economic outlook-this time The wording shows that the Fed believes that the risks have been reduced. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data allow the market to expect shifts in these Fed language; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, the follow-up meeting of the Federal Reserve will be more important.<b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous argument, that is, it believed that it reflected the impact of temporary factors to a large extent, and clearly wrote it into the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent question and answer session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell once again emphasized that inflation is temporary and believed that inflation would rise further and then slow down.<b>Regarding the risk aspects of stocks, house prices and liquidity, the chairman of the Federal Reserve also touched on, and this information provided a perspective on the prospect of monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risk, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that risk events similar to Archegos liquidation are not worth worrying about, but something in the stock market does reflect a market bubble. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell said that housing has not caused financial stability concerns, and housing prices reflect a state of short supply. This may provide a basis for subsequent reductions in the scale of MBS purchases, that is, the strong situation of the real estate market makes the Federal Reserve feel at ease to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.<b>The Federal Reserve continues the current pace of bond purchases. We expect that the action to reduce the scale of bond purchases may occur around the end of the year, but it will send a signal to reduce the scale of bond purchases earlier and allow sufficient time to communicate with the market. The interest rate meeting in June will be A very important time,</b>By then, the vaccination process in the United States may also gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. By then, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore more plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals, but the Federal Reserve may have to wait until the end of this year or next year. Only at the beginning of the year will the actual action be taken, and the details will mainly depend on changes in the epidemic and improvements in the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may take the lead in reducing the purchase of MBS. In a statement after this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous argument. And Powell once again emphasized the importance of the job market in his speech, saying that there are still a large number of unemployed people in the United States, so the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US Market Performance:</b>After the Federal Reserve issued its interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term and fell slightly. U.S. stocks generally rose that day. The Dow closed down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closed up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.11%; The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell in the short term, giving up all the gains during the day and turning down, and then fluctuating all the way down; The US Dollar Index fluctuated downward after short-term diving, reaching the lowest value of 90.5569 in the month; International gold prices and silver prices both rose in the short term after the release of the interest rate decision, and rose sharply again after Powell's speech.</p><p><b>Results of interest rate meeting</b></p><p><b>In terms of interest rates,</b>At this Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, the resolution to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed by all members. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it would keep the interest rate at the current level until it was convinced that the economy had survived the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. The excess reserve ratio (IOER) will remain unchanged at 0.1%, and the discount rate will remain unchanged at 0.25%, which will continue to remain unchanged, in line with market expectations.</p><p><b>In asset purchases,</b>The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to buy Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"before making substantial progress in achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals\", and increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and buy CMBS according to the need to promote smooth market operation and provide loose financial conditions, thus supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses; Continue to conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations with a quoted interest rate of 0.00%, and set a daily transaction limit of US $80 billion per party; Continue to carry out repurchase operations to support effective policy implementation and maintain the smooth operation of the short-term US dollar capital market.</p><p><b>As for economic expectations,</b>The Fed removed the statement that \"after the pace of recovery slowed, economic activity and employment indicators have picked up recently, although sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak; inflation continues to be below 2%\" and replaced it with \"Economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. Sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak but have improved; inflation has risen, mainly reflecting transitory factors\"; Amend \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook\" to \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on the economy, and the economic outlook remains at risk,\" with a significant moderation in semantics; Reiterate the views that \"the path of economic development will largely depend on the spread process of the virus, including the progress of vaccination\" and \"the overall financial environment will remain loose\"; Overall, certain adjustments have been made based on the minutes of the interest rate meeting in March this year.</p><p><b>Powell's speech</b></p><p><b>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that day: The recovery is still uneven and incomplete, and it is indeed expected that there will be further downward pressure on short-term interest rates; The areas most affected by the epidemic have improved, and they are very worried that the epidemic will leave permanent scars on the job market, and do not see the level of \"long-term economic trauma\" previously worried; Labor market conditions continue to improve, unemployment remains high, and expenditure growth stimulates prices, which may be temporary; Until the (dual) goal is achieved, it is appropriate for interest rates to be close to zero, and now is not the time to start talking about tapering bond purchases; Overall financial stability is uneven, but risks are manageable.</b></p><p><b>As for economic expectations,</b>Powell Says Recovery Remains Uneven, Incomplete; PCE is expected to exceed 2% annually; Economic activity has just picked up recently, and it will take some time to meet the mark; It will take some time to raise inflation expectations, which is expected to be accompanied by a strong labor market recovery; Inflation expectations return to levels around 2018 and 2014; Hopefully, inflation expectations will rise and be slightly higher than the levels of the past few decades; It is hoped that inflation expectations will be firmly controlled at 2%, and the break-even inflation rate will be very close to the target level, so we will pay close attention to inflation expectations; Further downward pressure on short-term interest rates is indeed expected.</p><p><b>In terms of epidemic,</b>Powell says areas worst hit by the pandemic have improved; To make substantial progress in economic recovery, significant progress will also be made in the epidemic; Very worried that the epidemic will leave permanent damage to the job market, and did not see the level of \"long-term economic trauma\" that was previously worried.</p><p><b>Employment and inflation,</b>Powell said labor market conditions continue to improve and unemployment remains high; Before the slowdown, there is a further rise in inflation to some extent; Expenditure growth stimulates prices, which may be temporary; With the labor market still weak, it seems unlikely that we will see a sustained rise in inflation; Full employment is still a long way off; If inflation expectations are really higher than the 2% level, tools will be used to bring them down; One-time price increases are unlikely to lead to sustained inflation.</p><p><b>As for monetary policy,</b>Powell said interest rates close to zero are appropriate until the (dual) goal is achieved; The temporary rise in inflation this year doesn't meet rate hike's criteria; Now is not the time to start talking about tapering; If necessary, the Fed will try its best to support the economic recovery; Tools will be used to support Federal Funds rate if needed; There is no need to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) at this time.</p><p><b>In terms of financial stability,</b>Powell said that we are closely monitoring the rise in housing prices and do not believe that housing prices pose financial stability concerns; The risk of Archegos liquidation event has not risen to the level of systemic risk; Some companies have problems with risk management, and companies like Archegos should have understood market risk; We are investigating risk management deficiencies related to the Archegos liquidation; High prices for some assets; Overall financial stability is uneven, but risks are controllable; Leverage in the financial system is not a problem, and the risk of financing is low; Monetary funds stimulate risk factors, but they are not systemic problems.</p><p><b>US Recent Fundamentals</b></p><p><b>In terms of epidemic situation, the overall epidemic situation in the United States is relatively stable, and the popularization of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel controls.</b>Since March this year, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States has mostly remained below 80,000 on that day, and the overall performance is stable. The control of the epidemic is mainly due to the stricter epidemic prevention measures taken by Biden after taking office, and the current rapid spread of vaccination in the United States: as of April 27, data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that the current number of COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations in the United States is 232 million doses, covering 42.7% of the total population, of which 81.8% are covered by the elderly over 65 years old; The number of vaccinations per 100 people has reached 69 doses, which is leading in the world. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently decided to relax social regulations and allow people who have completed vaccination not to wear masks outdoors, indicating that the popularity of vaccines is providing conditions for the United States to relax travel controls.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2b75d462c298291169e2f7de6e79378\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab33e92146d1ded015bd0988ae8e76c\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in March was higher than expected and the previous value. Many factors such as the accelerated vaccination speed, the relatively stable performance of the epidemic, and the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus to provide funds for enterprises jointly promoted the continued acceleration of employment improvement.</b>From the perspective of data changes, the non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 916,000 after seasonally adjustment in March, compared with the expected 647,000, and the previous value of 379,000. Since January this year, the number of new non-farm employment has begun to increase month by month, and the improvement speed has accelerated. The main reason behind this may be related to the accelerated vaccination speed in the United States and the relatively stable performance of the epidemic. At the same time, the fiscal stimulus policy of US $1.9 trillion It also provides funds for companies to help the job market recover. In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March came from the leisure and hotel industries, government departments, construction industries, and education and health care services.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a95ad1bd5d9f9e2af451ace160a4d97\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7574ced9fbd4c08159a140fd76491b5e\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of inflation, the low base generated by the epidemic last year pushed U.S. inflation higher year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sub-item, and rising inflation expectations were fulfilled to a certain extent.</b>In March, the U.S. CPI recorded 2.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.9 pcts from the previous value of 1.7%, and the core CPI recorded 1.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 pcts from the previous value of 1.3%. An important reason for the sharp increase in inflation year-on-year readings is that the U.S. CPI from April to June last year was-1.2%, 0.1% and 0.6% year-on-year respectively. Under the influence of the base effect, the current U.S. inflation has entered a high reading stage in the second quarter. From the perspective of CPI sub-items, the sub-item that brought the strongest pulling effect on the U.S. CPI year-on-year in March was the energy sub-item. The year-on-year growth rate of the U.S. CPI energy sub-item in March was as high as 13.2%, which was significantly higher than the 2.4% in February. increase. In addition, in March, the U.S. CPI food and beverage sub-item and transportation sub-item also had a strong pulling effect, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4% and 5.8% respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0197b2b2ff9a93fcc47f5a335a5f08e2\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of consumption, the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the epidemic have jointly promoted the outstanding performance of U.S. consumption. Consumer confidence has gradually picked up but there is still room for improvement.</b>Seasonally adjusted retail and food service sales in the United States recorded US $619.1 billion in March, hitting a record high again since January this year, with a year-on-year increase of 27.72% and a month-on-month increase of 9.82%. The main reason for the outstanding performance of consumption data in March may be the deregulation brought about by the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the epidemic. In terms of consumer confidence, high-frequency data shows that U.S. consumer confidence is gradually picking up, but there is still much room for improvement in absolute levels compared with before the outbreak.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e47581b90ed71a1177ec4939b5567c1\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd63f97b75996d5b9805c766c848eda\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of investment, new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods except transportation both returned to positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods except transportation recorded a record high again after January this year, and the investment situation in the United States rebounded moderately.</b>The seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods in the United States recorded US $256.3 billion in March, a year-on-year increase of 25.02% and a month-on-month increase of 0.55%. The main reason for the high year-on-year increase was the low base in the same period last year. After seasonal adjustment in March, the scale of new orders for durable goods except transportation was US $174.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.62%, recording a record high again after January this year. The data of new orders for durable goods shows that the investment situation in the United States continues its moderate recovery trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d199b058ffda424a73fdaac83b176401\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic prosperity, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in the United States exceeded expectations in March, reflecting the current acceleration of the recovery of the U.S. economy with the support of the stable epidemic and fiscal policy.</b>The U.S. manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations and recorded 64.7, a new high since December 1982, and the non-manufacturing PMI recorded 63.7, a new high since August 2005. Specifically, in terms of manufacturing, the price index, supplier delivery index, output index, new order index and order inventory index in the manufacturing PMI sub-items were 85.6, 76.6, 68.1, 68.0 and 67.5 respectively, all of which continued to run above 60. At a high level, the customer inventory index further fell to 29.9, which was the only item in the manufacturing PMI sub-items in March that was lower than the boom-bust line; In terms of non-manufacturing, the price index, business activity index, new orders index and supplier delivery index all exceeded 60, which were 74.0, 69.4, 67.2 and 61.0 respectively, and each sub-item was above the boom-bust line. The U.S. PMI in March exceeded expectations, reflecting the current acceleration of the recovery of the U.S. economy under the support of the stable epidemic and fiscal policy. Considering the continued implementation of fiscal policy and the continuous improvement of the U.S. vaccination rate, it is expected that the U.S. economic prosperity will continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd1afb1b23c068c4c5eed8a88999127\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e491aadef280a483fe56f624f4a284e\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Comments on Federal Reserve Meeting</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccine injections in the United States and the recent economic data performance in the United States.</b>The Fed mentioned in its statement that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement; At the last meeting, the Fed's view was that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remained weak. At the same time, the Fed's statement also indicated that it believes that the risks have also been reduced. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook is still at risk at this meeting, compared with the last view-which poses considerable risks to the economic outlook-this time The wording shows that the Fed believes that the risks have been reduced. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data allow the market to expect shifts in these Fed language; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, subsequent meetings of the Federal Reserve will be more important.</p><p><b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous argument, that is, it believed that it reflected the impact of temporary factors to a large extent, and clearly wrote it into the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent question and answer session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell once again emphasized that inflation is temporary and believed that inflation would rise further and then slow down.</p><p><b>Regarding the risk aspects of stocks, house prices and liquidity, the chairman of the Federal Reserve also touched on, and this information provided a perspective on the prospect of monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risks, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that risk events similar to the Archegos liquidation are not worth worrying about, but some situations in the stock market do reflect market bubbles. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell said that housing has not caused financial stability concerns, and housing prices reflect a state of short supply. This may provide a basis for subsequent reductions in the scale of MBS purchases, that is, the strong situation of the real estate market makes the Federal Reserve feel at ease to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve continues the current pace of bond purchases. We expect that it may take actions to reduce the scale of bond purchases around the end of the year, but it will send a signal to reduce the scale of bond purchases earlier and allow sufficient time to communicate with the market. The interest rate meeting in June will be It is a very important time,</b>By then, the vaccination process in the United States may gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. By then, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore more plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals, but the Federal Reserve may have to wait until the end of this year or next year. Only early will there be real action, depending mainly on changes in the epidemic and improvements in the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may take the lead in reducing the purchase of MBS. In a statement after this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous argument. And Powell once again emphasized the importance of the job market in his speech, saying that there are still a large number of unemployed people in the United States, so the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US Market Performance</b></p><p>After the Federal Reserve issued its interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term and fell slightly. U.S. stocks generally rose that day. The Dow closed down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closed up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.11%; The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell in the short term, giving up all the gains during the day and turning down, and then fluctuating all the way down; The US Dollar Index fluctuated downward after short-term diving, reaching the lowest value of 90.5569 in the month; International gold prices and silver prices both rose in the short term after the release of the interest rate decision, and rose sharply again after Powell's speech.</p>","source":"mxbt","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When will the Fed scale back QE?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen will the Fed scale back QE?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 明晰笔谈</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 14:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p><b>In the early morning of April 29, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its April interest rate meeting. In terms of interest rate instruments, the resolution to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed by all members. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it would keep interest rates at the current level until it was convinced that the economy had survived the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement kept the excess reserve ratio (IOER) unchanged at 0.1% and the discount rate unchanged at 0.25%. In terms of asset purchases, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than US $80 billion per month and no less than US $80 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made in achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. Purchase MBS at a rate of no less than US $40 billion, increase holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS, purchase CMBS as needed, and continue overnight reverse repurchase and repurchase operations. In terms of economic expectations, the Fed removed the statement that \"after the pace of recovery slowed, economic activity and employment indicators have recently picked up, although the sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak; inflation continues to be below 2%\", replacing it with \"Economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. The sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak, but have improved; inflation has risen, mainly reflecting temporary factors\", with some adjustments based on the minutes of the March interest rate meeting.</b></p><p><b>Recent fundamentals of the United States: In terms of the epidemic,</b>The overall epidemic situation in the United States is relatively stable, and the popularization of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel controls.<b>Employment,</b>In March, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States was higher than expected and the previous value. The accelerated vaccination speed, the relatively stable performance of the epidemic, and the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus to provide funds for enterprises jointly promoted the continued acceleration of employment improvement.<b>In terms of inflation,</b>The low base caused by the epidemic in the same period last year pushed U.S. inflation higher year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sub-item, and rising inflation expectations were fulfilled to a certain extent.<b>Consumption,</b>The US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the epidemic have jointly promoted the outstanding performance of U.S. consumption. Consumer confidence is gradually picking up, but there is still room for improvement.<b>In terms of investment,</b>New orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods except transportation both returned to positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods except transportation recorded a new high again after January this year, and investment in the United States rebounded moderately.<b>In terms of economic prosperity,</b>Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in the United States exceeded expectations in March, reflecting the current acceleration of the recovery of the U.S. economy with the support of the stable epidemic and fiscal policy.</p><p><b>Comments: The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccine injections in the United States and recent economic data in the United States.</b>The Fed mentioned in its statement that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement; At the last meeting, the Fed's view was that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remained weak. At the same time, the Fed's statement also indicated that it believes that the risks have also been reduced. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook is still at risk at this meeting, compared with the last view-which poses considerable risks to the economic outlook-this time The wording shows that the Fed believes that the risks have been reduced. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data allow the market to expect shifts in these Fed language; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, the follow-up meeting of the Federal Reserve will be more important.<b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous argument, that is, it believed that it reflected the impact of temporary factors to a large extent, and clearly wrote it into the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent question and answer session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell once again emphasized that inflation is temporary and believed that inflation would rise further and then slow down.<b>Regarding the risk aspects of stocks, house prices and liquidity, the chairman of the Federal Reserve also touched on, and this information provided a perspective on the prospect of monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risk, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that risk events similar to Archegos liquidation are not worth worrying about, but something in the stock market does reflect a market bubble. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell said that housing has not caused financial stability concerns, and housing prices reflect a state of short supply. This may provide a basis for subsequent reductions in the scale of MBS purchases, that is, the strong situation of the real estate market makes the Federal Reserve feel at ease to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.<b>The Federal Reserve continues the current pace of bond purchases. We expect that the action to reduce the scale of bond purchases may occur around the end of the year, but it will send a signal to reduce the scale of bond purchases earlier and allow sufficient time to communicate with the market. The interest rate meeting in June will be A very important time,</b>By then, the vaccination process in the United States may also gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. By then, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore more plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals, but the Federal Reserve may have to wait until the end of this year or next year. Only at the beginning of the year will the actual action be taken, and the details will mainly depend on changes in the epidemic and improvements in the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may take the lead in reducing the purchase of MBS. In a statement after this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous argument. And Powell once again emphasized the importance of the job market in his speech, saying that there are still a large number of unemployed people in the United States, so the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US Market Performance:</b>After the Federal Reserve issued its interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term and fell slightly. U.S. stocks generally rose that day. The Dow closed down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closed up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.11%; The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell in the short term, giving up all the gains during the day and turning down, and then fluctuating all the way down; The US Dollar Index fluctuated downward after short-term diving, reaching the lowest value of 90.5569 in the month; International gold prices and silver prices both rose in the short term after the release of the interest rate decision, and rose sharply again after Powell's speech.</p><p><b>Results of interest rate meeting</b></p><p><b>In terms of interest rates,</b>At this Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, the resolution to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed by all members. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it would keep the interest rate at the current level until it was convinced that the economy had survived the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. The excess reserve ratio (IOER) will remain unchanged at 0.1%, and the discount rate will remain unchanged at 0.25%, which will continue to remain unchanged, in line with market expectations.</p><p><b>In asset purchases,</b>The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to buy Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"before making substantial progress in achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals\", and increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and buy CMBS according to the need to promote smooth market operation and provide loose financial conditions, thus supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses; Continue to conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations with a quoted interest rate of 0.00%, and set a daily transaction limit of US $80 billion per party; Continue to carry out repurchase operations to support effective policy implementation and maintain the smooth operation of the short-term US dollar capital market.</p><p><b>As for economic expectations,</b>The Fed removed the statement that \"after the pace of recovery slowed, economic activity and employment indicators have picked up recently, although sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak; inflation continues to be below 2%\" and replaced it with \"Economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. Sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak but have improved; inflation has risen, mainly reflecting transitory factors\"; Amend \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook\" to \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on the economy, and the economic outlook remains at risk,\" with a significant moderation in semantics; Reiterate the views that \"the path of economic development will largely depend on the spread process of the virus, including the progress of vaccination\" and \"the overall financial environment will remain loose\"; Overall, certain adjustments have been made based on the minutes of the interest rate meeting in March this year.</p><p><b>Powell's speech</b></p><p><b>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that day: The recovery is still uneven and incomplete, and it is indeed expected that there will be further downward pressure on short-term interest rates; The areas most affected by the epidemic have improved, and they are very worried that the epidemic will leave permanent scars on the job market, and do not see the level of \"long-term economic trauma\" previously worried; Labor market conditions continue to improve, unemployment remains high, and expenditure growth stimulates prices, which may be temporary; Until the (dual) goal is achieved, it is appropriate for interest rates to be close to zero, and now is not the time to start talking about tapering bond purchases; Overall financial stability is uneven, but risks are manageable.</b></p><p><b>As for economic expectations,</b>Powell Says Recovery Remains Uneven, Incomplete; PCE is expected to exceed 2% annually; Economic activity has just picked up recently, and it will take some time to meet the mark; It will take some time to raise inflation expectations, which is expected to be accompanied by a strong labor market recovery; Inflation expectations return to levels around 2018 and 2014; Hopefully, inflation expectations will rise and be slightly higher than the levels of the past few decades; It is hoped that inflation expectations will be firmly controlled at 2%, and the break-even inflation rate will be very close to the target level, so we will pay close attention to inflation expectations; Further downward pressure on short-term interest rates is indeed expected.</p><p><b>In terms of epidemic,</b>Powell says areas worst hit by the pandemic have improved; To make substantial progress in economic recovery, significant progress will also be made in the epidemic; Very worried that the epidemic will leave permanent damage to the job market, and did not see the level of \"long-term economic trauma\" that was previously worried.</p><p><b>Employment and inflation,</b>Powell said labor market conditions continue to improve and unemployment remains high; Before the slowdown, there is a further rise in inflation to some extent; Expenditure growth stimulates prices, which may be temporary; With the labor market still weak, it seems unlikely that we will see a sustained rise in inflation; Full employment is still a long way off; If inflation expectations are really higher than the 2% level, tools will be used to bring them down; One-time price increases are unlikely to lead to sustained inflation.</p><p><b>As for monetary policy,</b>Powell said interest rates close to zero are appropriate until the (dual) goal is achieved; The temporary rise in inflation this year doesn't meet rate hike's criteria; Now is not the time to start talking about tapering; If necessary, the Fed will try its best to support the economic recovery; Tools will be used to support Federal Funds rate if needed; There is no need to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) at this time.</p><p><b>In terms of financial stability,</b>Powell said that we are closely monitoring the rise in housing prices and do not believe that housing prices pose financial stability concerns; The risk of Archegos liquidation event has not risen to the level of systemic risk; Some companies have problems with risk management, and companies like Archegos should have understood market risk; We are investigating risk management deficiencies related to the Archegos liquidation; High prices for some assets; Overall financial stability is uneven, but risks are controllable; Leverage in the financial system is not a problem, and the risk of financing is low; Monetary funds stimulate risk factors, but they are not systemic problems.</p><p><b>US Recent Fundamentals</b></p><p><b>In terms of epidemic situation, the overall epidemic situation in the United States is relatively stable, and the popularization of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel controls.</b>Since March this year, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States has mostly remained below 80,000 on that day, and the overall performance is stable. The control of the epidemic is mainly due to the stricter epidemic prevention measures taken by Biden after taking office, and the current rapid spread of vaccination in the United States: as of April 27, data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that the current number of COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations in the United States is 232 million doses, covering 42.7% of the total population, of which 81.8% are covered by the elderly over 65 years old; The number of vaccinations per 100 people has reached 69 doses, which is leading in the world. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently decided to relax social regulations and allow people who have completed vaccination not to wear masks outdoors, indicating that the popularity of vaccines is providing conditions for the United States to relax travel controls.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2b75d462c298291169e2f7de6e79378\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab33e92146d1ded015bd0988ae8e76c\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in March was higher than expected and the previous value. Many factors such as the accelerated vaccination speed, the relatively stable performance of the epidemic, and the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus to provide funds for enterprises jointly promoted the continued acceleration of employment improvement.</b>From the perspective of data changes, the non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 916,000 after seasonally adjustment in March, compared with the expected 647,000, and the previous value of 379,000. Since January this year, the number of new non-farm employment has begun to increase month by month, and the improvement speed has accelerated. The main reason behind this may be related to the accelerated vaccination speed in the United States and the relatively stable performance of the epidemic. At the same time, the fiscal stimulus policy of US $1.9 trillion It also provides funds for companies to help the job market recover. In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March came from the leisure and hotel industries, government departments, construction industries, and education and health care services.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a95ad1bd5d9f9e2af451ace160a4d97\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7574ced9fbd4c08159a140fd76491b5e\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of inflation, the low base generated by the epidemic last year pushed U.S. inflation higher year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sub-item, and rising inflation expectations were fulfilled to a certain extent.</b>In March, the U.S. CPI recorded 2.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.9 pcts from the previous value of 1.7%, and the core CPI recorded 1.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 pcts from the previous value of 1.3%. An important reason for the sharp increase in inflation year-on-year readings is that the U.S. CPI from April to June last year was-1.2%, 0.1% and 0.6% year-on-year respectively. Under the influence of the base effect, the current U.S. inflation has entered a high reading stage in the second quarter. From the perspective of CPI sub-items, the sub-item that brought the strongest pulling effect on the U.S. CPI year-on-year in March was the energy sub-item. The year-on-year growth rate of the U.S. CPI energy sub-item in March was as high as 13.2%, which was significantly higher than the 2.4% in February. increase. In addition, in March, the U.S. CPI food and beverage sub-item and transportation sub-item also had a strong pulling effect, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4% and 5.8% respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0197b2b2ff9a93fcc47f5a335a5f08e2\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of consumption, the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the epidemic have jointly promoted the outstanding performance of U.S. consumption. Consumer confidence has gradually picked up but there is still room for improvement.</b>Seasonally adjusted retail and food service sales in the United States recorded US $619.1 billion in March, hitting a record high again since January this year, with a year-on-year increase of 27.72% and a month-on-month increase of 9.82%. The main reason for the outstanding performance of consumption data in March may be the deregulation brought about by the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the epidemic. In terms of consumer confidence, high-frequency data shows that U.S. consumer confidence is gradually picking up, but there is still much room for improvement in absolute levels compared with before the outbreak.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e47581b90ed71a1177ec4939b5567c1\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd63f97b75996d5b9805c766c848eda\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of investment, new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods except transportation both returned to positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods except transportation recorded a record high again after January this year, and the investment situation in the United States rebounded moderately.</b>The seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods in the United States recorded US $256.3 billion in March, a year-on-year increase of 25.02% and a month-on-month increase of 0.55%. The main reason for the high year-on-year increase was the low base in the same period last year. After seasonal adjustment in March, the scale of new orders for durable goods except transportation was US $174.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.62%, recording a record high again after January this year. The data of new orders for durable goods shows that the investment situation in the United States continues its moderate recovery trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d199b058ffda424a73fdaac83b176401\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic prosperity, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in the United States exceeded expectations in March, reflecting the current acceleration of the recovery of the U.S. economy with the support of the stable epidemic and fiscal policy.</b>The U.S. manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations and recorded 64.7, a new high since December 1982, and the non-manufacturing PMI recorded 63.7, a new high since August 2005. Specifically, in terms of manufacturing, the price index, supplier delivery index, output index, new order index and order inventory index in the manufacturing PMI sub-items were 85.6, 76.6, 68.1, 68.0 and 67.5 respectively, all of which continued to run above 60. At a high level, the customer inventory index further fell to 29.9, which was the only item in the manufacturing PMI sub-items in March that was lower than the boom-bust line; In terms of non-manufacturing, the price index, business activity index, new orders index and supplier delivery index all exceeded 60, which were 74.0, 69.4, 67.2 and 61.0 respectively, and each sub-item was above the boom-bust line. The U.S. PMI in March exceeded expectations, reflecting the current acceleration of the recovery of the U.S. economy under the support of the stable epidemic and fiscal policy. Considering the continued implementation of fiscal policy and the continuous improvement of the U.S. vaccination rate, it is expected that the U.S. economic prosperity will continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd1afb1b23c068c4c5eed8a88999127\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e491aadef280a483fe56f624f4a284e\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Comments on Federal Reserve Meeting</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccine injections in the United States and the recent economic data performance in the United States.</b>The Fed mentioned in its statement that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement; At the last meeting, the Fed's view was that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remained weak. At the same time, the Fed's statement also indicated that it believes that the risks have also been reduced. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook is still at risk at this meeting, compared with the last view-which poses considerable risks to the economic outlook-this time The wording shows that the Fed believes that the risks have been reduced. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data allow the market to expect shifts in these Fed language; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, subsequent meetings of the Federal Reserve will be more important.</p><p><b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous argument, that is, it believed that it reflected the impact of temporary factors to a large extent, and clearly wrote it into the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent question and answer session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell once again emphasized that inflation is temporary and believed that inflation would rise further and then slow down.</p><p><b>Regarding the risk aspects of stocks, house prices and liquidity, the chairman of the Federal Reserve also touched on, and this information provided a perspective on the prospect of monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risks, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that risk events similar to the Archegos liquidation are not worth worrying about, but some situations in the stock market do reflect market bubbles. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell said that housing has not caused financial stability concerns, and housing prices reflect a state of short supply. This may provide a basis for subsequent reductions in the scale of MBS purchases, that is, the strong situation of the real estate market makes the Federal Reserve feel at ease to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve continues the current pace of bond purchases. We expect that it may take actions to reduce the scale of bond purchases around the end of the year, but it will send a signal to reduce the scale of bond purchases earlier and allow sufficient time to communicate with the market. The interest rate meeting in June will be It is a very important time,</b>By then, the vaccination process in the United States may gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. By then, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore more plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals, but the Federal Reserve may have to wait until the end of this year or next year. Only early will there be real action, depending mainly on changes in the epidemic and improvements in the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may take the lead in reducing the purchase of MBS. In a statement after this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous argument. And Powell once again emphasized the importance of the job market in his speech, saying that there are still a large number of unemployed people in the United States, so the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US Market Performance</b></p><p>After the Federal Reserve issued its interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term and fell slightly. U.S. stocks generally rose that day. The Dow closed down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closed up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.11%; The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell in the short term, giving up all the gains during the day and turning down, and then fluctuating all the way down; The US Dollar Index fluctuated downward after short-term diving, reaching the lowest value of 90.5569 in the month; International gold prices and silver prices both rose in the short term after the release of the interest rate decision, and rose sharply again after Powell's speech.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P8a1SR0FCYCN6rI2jtpD2w\"> 明晰笔谈</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P8a1SR0FCYCN6rI2jtpD2w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199597620","content_text":"核心观点\n北京时间4月29日凌晨，美联储公布4月议息会议结果。利率工具方面，将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变的决议得到所有委员一致同意，美联储重申将维持利率在当前水平直至确信经济度过危机，实现其最大就业和物价稳定的双重目标。美联储FOMC声明将超额准备金率（IOER）维持在0.1%不变，贴现利率维持在0.25%不变。资产购买方面，美联储重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS，并根据需要增持国债和MBS、购买CMBS，继续进行隔夜逆回购和回购操作。经济预期方面，美联储移除了关于“在复苏步伐放缓之后，经济活动和就业指标最近有所回升，尽管受大流行病影响最严重的部门仍然疲弱；通货膨胀率继续低于2%”的表述，将其替换成“随着疫苗接种工作的进展和强有力的政策支持，经济活动和就业指标得到了加强。受大流行影响最严重的部门仍然疲弱，但已有改善；通货膨胀率上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”，在今年3月的议息会议纪要的基础上做出了一定调整。\n美国近期基本面：疫情方面，美国疫情整体较为平稳，疫苗的普及为放松出行管制提供了条件。就业方面，3月美国新增非农就业人数高于预期和前值，疫苗接种速度加快、疫情表现相对稳定和1.9万亿美元财政刺激为企业提供资金等多因素共同推动就业改善速度继续加快。通胀方面，去年同期疫情产生的低基数推动美国3月通胀同比走高，主要拉动来自于能源分项，持续上涨的通胀预期一定程度上得到兑现。消费方面，1.9万亿美元财政刺激和疫情趋稳共同推动美国消费表现亮眼，消费者信心逐步回暖但仍有改善空间。投资方面，美国耐用品新增订单和除运输外耐用品新增订单环比均回正，其中除运输外耐用品新增订单继今年1月后再次录得新高，美国投资状况温和回升。经济景气方面，美国3月制造业和非制造业PMI均超出预期，反映出当前在疫情平稳和财政政策支撑下美国经济的修复有所加快。\n点评：美联储对经济前景更加乐观，这与美国的新冠疫苗注射进度和美国近期的经济数据表现一致。美联储在声明中提到最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱，但已经显示出了改善；而上次会议中美联储的看法还是最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱。同时，美联储声明还表明其认为风险也有所降低，尽管这次会议美联储仍然认为经济前景仍旧面临风险，但是相较于上次的看法——对经济前景构成相当大的风险——这次的措辞显示出美联储认为风险已经减少。一方面，经济数据的积极变化使得市场能够预期美联储这些措辞的转变；另一方面，后续随着经济继续恢复，美联储后续的会议将更加重要。在通胀的问题上美联储依旧延续此前的论调，即认为在很大程度上反映了暂时性因素的影响，而且将其明确写进了美联储的会议声明中。在之后的问答环节美联储主席鲍威尔再次强调了通胀是暂时性的，并认为通货膨胀将进一步有所上升，然后减缓。关于股票、房价以及流动性的风险层面，美联储主席也有所涉及，并且这些信息为货币政策的前景提供了角度。关于股票风险，美联储主席鲍威尔认为类似于Archegos爆仓的风险事件并不值得担忧，但是股市的某些东西的确体现出市场泡沫。在回应房价快速上涨时鲍威尔表示住房方面并未引发金融稳定性顾虑，房价体现出的是供不应求的状态。这或为后续减少MBS购买规模提供基础，即房地产市场的强劲局面使得美联储可能放心减少MBS的购买规模，而国债购买规模涉及到与财政政策的配合，美联储可能将更加谨慎。美联储延续当前购债速度，我们预计减少购债规模的行动可能于年底前后发生，但会更早发出减少购债规模的信号，并留出充裕时间与市场沟通，6月份的议息会议将会是一个很重要的时点，届时美国的疫苗注射进程可能也将逐渐达到群体免疫所需要的接种覆盖面积，届时美联储可能开始更多地探讨减少购债的计划，发出更多市场信号，但美联储可能要等到今年年底或明年年初才真正行动，具体将主要视疫情的变化和就业市场的改善而定。操作上，美联储可能将率先减少MBS的购买量。美联储在本次议息会议后的声明中重申不会改变债券购买速度，直到就业和通胀目标取得“实质性的进一步进展”，延续此前论调。并且鲍威尔讲话里面再次强调就业市场的重要性，表示美国仍然有大量失业人口，因此减少购债的计划将于就业市场的改善节奏息息相关。\n美国市场表现：美联储发布利率决议后，三大股指短线下行，小幅回落，当日美股大体上行，道指收跌0.49%，标普500指数收涨0.14%，纳指收涨0.11%；10年期美债收益率短线下行，回吐日内全部涨幅转跌，随后一路震荡下行；美元指数短线跳水后震荡下行，向下探得月内最低值90.5569；国际金价、银价均在利率决议发布后短线上行，并在鲍威尔讲话之后再度大涨。\n议息会议结果\n利率工具方面，在本次美联储议息会议上，将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变的决议得到所有委员一致同意，美联储重申将维持利率在当前水平直至确信经济度过危机，实现其最大就业和物价稳定的双重目标。超额准备金率（IOER）将维持在0.1%不变，贴现利率维持在0.25%不变，继续按兵不动，符合市场预期。\n资产购买方面，美联储重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS，并根据促进平稳的市场运作、提供宽松金融条件的需要来增持国债和MBS、购买CMBS，从而支持信贷流向家庭和企业；继续进行报价利率为0.00%的隔夜逆回购协议操作，设定每天每方交易限额为800亿美元；继续进行回购操作以支持有效的政策实施，维护短期美元资金市场的平稳运行。\n经济预期方面，美联储移除了关于“在复苏步伐放缓之后，经济活动和就业指标最近有所回升，尽管受大流行病影响最严重的部门仍然疲弱；通货膨胀率继续低于2%”的表述，将其替换成“随着疫苗接种工作的进展和强有力的政策支持，经济活动和就业指标得到了加强。受大流行影响最严重的部门仍然薄弱，但已有改善；通货膨胀率上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”；将“持续的公共卫生危机继续给经济活动、就业和通货膨胀带来了压力，并给经济前景带来相当大的风险”修改为“持续的公共卫生危机继续给经济带来了压力，经济前景仍然面临风险”，语义显著缓和；重申“经济发展的道路将在很大程度上取决于病毒的传播过程，包括疫苗接种的进展”“总体金融环境维持宽松”等观点；整体上在今年3月的议息会议纪要基础上做出了一定调整。\n鲍威尔的讲话\n美联储主席鲍威尔在当日新闻发布会上表示：复苏仍然不平衡、不完整，确实预计短期利率会有进一步下行的压力；受疫情影响最严重的领域有所改善，非常担心疫情对就业市场留下永久伤痕，没有看到之前担忧的“经济长期创伤”水平；劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企，支出增长刺激物价，可能是暂时性的；在实现（双重）目标前，利率接近零是合适的，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候；整体金融稳定情况参差不齐，但风险可控。\n经济预期方面，鲍威尔表示，复苏仍然不平衡、不完整；PCE年率预计将超过2%；经济活动最近刚刚回升，要达到标准还需要一段时间；需要一段时间才能上调通胀预期，预计这将伴随着劳动力市场的强劲复苏；通胀预期回归到2018年和2014年左右的水平；希望通胀预期上升，并稍高于过去几十年的水平；希望通胀预期牢固控制在2%，损益平衡通胀率很接近目标水平，会密切关注通胀预期；确实预计短期利率会有进一步下行的压力。\n疫情方面，鲍威尔表示，受疫情影响最严重的领域有所改善；经济复苏要取得实质性的进展，也将在疫情方面取得重大进展；非常担心疫情对就业市场留下永久伤害，没有看到之前担忧的“经济长期创伤”水平。\n就业与通胀方面，鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企；在出现放缓之前，某种程度上通胀出现进一步的上升；支出增长刺激物价，可能是暂时性的；在劳动力市场仍然疲软的情况下，我们似乎不太可能看到通胀持续上升；离充分就业还有很长的路要走；如果通胀预期真的高于2%的水平，就会使用工具将其降下来；一次性物价上涨不太可能导致持续的通胀。\n货币政策方面，鲍威尔表示，在实现（双重）目标前，利率接近零是合适的；今年通胀的暂时上升不符合加息的标准；现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候；如有需要，美联储将尽力支持经济复苏；如有需要，将使用工具来支持联邦基金利率；目前没有必要调整超额准备金利率（IOER）。\n金融稳定方面，鲍威尔表示，我们正在密切关注房价的上升，不认为住房价格带来金融稳定性担忧；Archegos爆仓事件风险并没有上升到系统性风险的水平；有些公司的风险管理出现了问题，Archegos这样的企业本应理解市场风险；我们正在调查与Archegos爆仓事件相关的风险管理缺陷；一些资产的价格高企；整体金融稳定情况参差不齐，但风险可控；金融系统中的杠杆不是问题，融资的风险较低；货币基金刺激风险因素，但并非系统性问题。\n美国近期基本面\n疫情方面，美国疫情整体较为平稳，疫苗的普及为放松出行管制提供了条件。今年三月以来，美国当日新增确诊病例数大都维持在8万以下，整体表现平稳。疫情得到控制主要是由于拜登上台后采取了更为严格的防疫措施，同时当前美国疫苗接种快速普及：截至4月27日，美疾控中心（CDC）数据显示当前美国已接种新冠疫苗数量为2.32亿剂，覆盖了总人口的42.7%，其中65岁以上老龄人口已覆盖81.8%；每百人接种数达到69剂次，在全球范围内较为领先。美疾控中心（CDC）日前决定放松社交规定，允许完成疫苗接种的民众在户外不佩戴口罩，显示疫苗的普及正在为美国放松出行管制提供条件。就业方面，3月美国新增非农就业人数高于预期和前值，疫苗接种速度加快、疫情表现相对稳定和1.9万亿美元财政刺激为企业提供资金等多因素共同推动就业改善速度继续加快。从数据变化上看，美国3月季调后非农就业人口增91.6万人，预期64.7万人，前值37.9万人。从今年1月开始，新增非农就业人数便开始逐月递增，改善速度有所加快，其背后的主要原因或与美国疫苗接种速度加快，疫情表现相对稳定有关，同时1.9万亿美元财政刺激政策也为企业提供了资金，帮助就业市场的恢复。分行业来看，3月份对美国新增非农就业人数贡献较高的行业来自于休闲和酒店业、政府部门、建筑业以及教育和保健服务业。通胀方面，去年疫情产生的低基数推动美国3月通胀同比走高，主要拉动来自于能源分项，持续上涨的通胀预期一定程度上得到兑现。3月美国CPI同比录得2.6%，较前值1.7%上涨0.9pct，核心CPI同比录得1.6%，较前值1.3%上涨0.3pcts，去年受疫情影响导致的低基数效应是3月美国通胀同比读数大幅上涨的一项重要原因，去年4至6月美国CPI同比分别为-1.2%、0.1%和0.6%，在基数效应的影响下，当前的美国通胀进入了二季度高读数阶段。从CPI的分项上来看，给3月份美国CPI同比带来拉动效应最强的分项是能源分项，3月美国CPI能源分项同比增速高达13.2%，相较2月份的2.4%显著提升。此外，3月美国CPI食品饮料分项和交通运输分项的拉动作用同样较强，同比增速分别为3.4%和5.8%。消费方面，1.9万亿美元财政刺激和疫情趋稳共同推动美国消费表现亮眼，消费者信心逐步回暖但仍有改善空间。美国3月季调后零售和食品服务销售额录得6191亿美元，自今年1月以后再次创下历史新高，同比增长27.72%，环比增长9.82%。3月消费数据表现亮眼的主要原因或为1.9万亿美元财政刺激与疫情趋稳带来的管制放松。消费者信心方面，高频数据显示美国消费者信心正在逐步回暖，但绝对水平相较疫情发生前仍有较大的改善空间。投资方面，美国耐用品新增订单和除运输外耐用品新增订单环比均回正，其中除运输外耐用品新增订单继今年1月后再次录得史高，美国投资状况温和回升。美国3月季调后耐用品新增订单规模录得2563亿美元，同比上升25.02%，环比上升0.55%，同比高增的主要原因是去年同期基数较低。3月季调后除运输外耐用品新增订单规模为1744亿美元，同比上升12.82%，环比上升1.62%，继今年1月后再次录得历史新高。耐用品新增订单数据显示美国投资状况延续温和回升的趋势。经济景气方面，美国3月制造业和非制造业PMI均超出预期，反映出当前在疫情平稳和财政政策支撑下美国经济的修复有所加快。美国3月制造业PMI超预期录得64.7，创1982年12月以来新高，非制造业PMI录得63.7，创2005年8月以来新高。具体而言，制造业方面，制造业PMI分项中的物价指数、供应商交付指数、产出指数、新订单指数和订单库存指数分别为85.6、76.6、68.1、68.0、67.5，都继续运行在60以上高位，客户库存指数进一步下跌至29.9，是3月制造业PMI分项中唯一低于荣枯线的一项；非制造业方面，物价指数、商业活动指数、新订单指数和供应商交付指数均超过60，分别为74.0、69.4、67.2和61.0，各分项均位于荣枯线上方。美国3月PMI的超出预期反映了当前在疫情平稳和财政政策支撑下美国经济的修复有所加快，考虑到财政政策的持续执行和美国疫苗接种率的不断提高，预计美国经济景气度仍将延续回升。\n美联储会议点评\n美联储对经济前景更加乐观，这与美国的新冠疫苗注射进度和美国近期的经济数据表现一致。美联储在声明中提到最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱，但已经显示出了改善；而上次会议中美联储的看法还是最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱。同时，美联储声明还表明其认为风险也有所降低，尽管这次会议美联储仍然认为经济前景仍旧面临风险，但是相较于上次的看法——对经济前景构成相当大的风险——这次的措辞显示出美联储认为风险已经减少。一方面，经济数据的积极变化使得市场能够预期美联储这些措辞的转变；另一方面，随着经济继续恢复，美联储后续的会议将更加重要。\n在通胀的问题上美联储依旧延续此前的论调，即认为在很大程度上反映了暂时性因素的影响，而且将其明确写进了美联储的会议声明中。在之后的问答环节美联储主席鲍威尔再次强调了通胀是暂时性的，并认为通货膨胀将进一步有所上升，然后减缓。\n关于股票、房价以及流动性的风险层面，美联储主席也有所涉及，并且这些信息为货币政策的前景提供了角度。关于股票风险，美联储主席鲍威尔认为类似于Archegos爆仓的风险事件并不值得担忧，但是股市的某些情况的确体现出市场泡沫。在回应房价快速上涨时鲍威尔表示住房方面并未引发金融稳定性顾虑，房价体现出的是供不应求的状态。这或为后续减少MBS购买规模提供基础，即房地产市场的强劲局面使得美联储可能放心减少MBS的购买规模，而国债购买规模涉及到与财政政策的配合，美联储可能将更加谨慎。\n美联储延续当前购债速度，我们预计可能于年底前后采取减少购债规模的行动，但会更早发出减少购债规模的信号，并留出充裕时间与市场沟通，6月份的议息会议将会是一个很重要的时点，届时美国的疫苗注射进程可能也将逐渐达到群体免疫所需要的接种覆盖面积，届时美联储可能开始更多地探讨减少购债的计划，发出更多市场信号，但美联储可能要等到今年年底或明年年初才会真正行动，具体将主要视疫情的变化和就业市场的改善而定。操作上，美联储可能将率先减少MBS的购买量。美联储在本次议息会议后的声明中重申不会改变债券购买速度，直到就业和通胀目标取得“实质性的进一步进展”，延续此前论调。并且鲍威尔讲话里面再次强调就业市场的重要性，表示美国仍然有大量失业人口，因此减少购债的计划将于就业市场的改善节奏息息相关。\n美国市场表现\n美联储发布利率决议后，三大股指短线下行，小幅回落，当日美股大体上行，道指收跌0.49%，标普500指数收涨0.14%，纳指收涨0.11%；10年期美债收益率短线下行，回吐日内全部涨幅转跌，随后一路震荡下行；美元指数短线跳水后震荡下行，向下探得月内最低值90.5569；国际金价、银价均在利率决议发布后短线上行，并在鲍威尔讲话之后再度大涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365602217,"gmtCreate":1614732248439,"gmtModify":1704774527323,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365602217","repostId":"1113167033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113167033","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1614730873,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113167033?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-03 08:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"After being stuck for half a year, SMIC finally took a breath","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113167033","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"“芯片危机”的赢家？\n\n“中芯国际获美国14nm许可。”\n昨天这则消息，搅动了今天的市场情绪，CNBC、《华尔街时报》等西方媒体也报道了相关新闻。\n\n去年12月，美国商务部将中芯国际列入“实体清单”，","content":"<p>The winner of the \"chip crisis\"?<b>“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Obtained the US 14nm license. \"</b></p><p>Yesterday's news stirred up today's market sentiment, and Western media such as CNBC and The Wall Street Journal also reported related news.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34033eeb8e6d504b9b220624b1510de7\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In December last year, the US Department of Commerce will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Included in the \"Entity List\" suppressed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Valuation. The relaxation of \"sanctions\" this time may be related to the current global shortage of chips-the \"seven injuries\" of the US imperialist may have made itself uncomfortable.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>\"Sanctions\" relaxed, in line with expectations</b></p><p><b>The relaxation of \"sanctions\" is basically in line with expectations.</b></p><p>It can be seen from the news that among some suppliers in the United States, Company A has obtained relevant licenses, while Company L and Company K are still waiting for the results. They will also obtain licenses one after another. The licenses take 10nm as the cutoff point, and 14nm and above process-related products have been licensed, but nodes of 10nm and below have not obtained licenses.</p><p>A, L and K respectively refer to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>Applied Materials,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">RAM Study</a>(Lam Research), American business Kelei (KLA).</p><p>Trump, who is known as \"America first\", may not have expected that beating any link in the global industrial chain would have unpredictable effects.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297e3e249ee82777b45b4bd1ee6ace91\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the one hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>In-depth cooperation with some US suppliers, sanctions will directly disrupt the supply chains of these companies</b>。 SMIC's main American suppliers include A, L, and K, while downstream American customers also include Qualcomm and Broadcom.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45a374657acd2b3bfff3bf230d2c8e9f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These companies attach great importance to the Chinese market and maintain good interactive relations with Chinese customers such as SMIC. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>He once actively lobbied the Trump administration for Huawei. It can be speculated that the loosening of this policy was only due to the effective communication between American equipment manufacturers and SMIC.</p><p><b>On the other hand, \"sanctions\" have disrupted the global chip supply chain and caused a backlash to the United States.</b></p><p>Last year, Huawei began to hoard chips in response to US \"sanctions\", occupying<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And the production capacity of fabs such as MediaTek. Later, the production of wafer fabs slowed down due to the epidemic, resulting in a large backlog of orders. However, the orders during the epidemic have not been digested, and the economy has begun to recover again, bringing about an increase in chip demand in consumer electronics, automotive electronics, industrial production and other scenarios.</p><p><b>The \"chip crisis\" quickly spread to U.S. consumer electronics, automobile and other industries, bringing violent shocks</b>。 The revenue that the two major U.S. car companies-General Motors and Ford should have during the year has been lowered by about 1/3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>There are even plans to suspend production at three factories in North America for this purpose. Since the existing chip demand exceeds 30% of the supply capacity, it will take at least 3 to 4 quarters to achieve a balance between supply and demand, which means that the \"chip crisis\" may last until 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8939d25e16c01a64dc1e3f4ce4cab17e\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>American companies can't wait so long. The Biden administration has just taken office,<b>Representatives of several technology companies, auto industry and other business interest groups rushed to send letters to Biden, calling the issue a national priority</b>。</p><p>As a result, Trump acted as a demon and asked Biden to wipe his ass.</p><p>After Biden took office, he immediately signed an executive order targeting the \"chip crisis\" and quickly cooperated with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>A cooperation has been reached. The latter will spend approximately 233.2 billion yuan to build six new 5nm chip factories in Arizona, USA. Construction will start at the beginning of this year and be put into production in 2024.</p><p>But the distant water of 2024 cannot quench the near thirst of 2021.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>The window period of \"breakthrough\"?</b></p><p><b>The loosening of \"sanctions\" this time also exceeded expectations.</b></p><p>The market may not have expected before that the approved license also covers the 14nm process.</p><p>As early as December 31, it was reported that SMIC had obtained a license from the U.S. Department of Commerce for the equipment required for its mature manufacturing process, and would issue 40,000 to 50,000 pieces of equipment for production capacity at one time. In this regard, the previous market expectation was that process equipment above 28nm would be approved one after another.</p><p>SMIC's 14nm is still the most advanced process that can be mass-produced for the time being. The 14nm process has been mass-produced in 2019Q4, and the yield rate has reached the industry's mass production level. At the same time, the second-generation FinFET has entered small-scale trial production.</p><p>The 14nm process was also approved this time, which means that SMIC will get a respite in the mature process that contributes the most to revenue; In the field of advanced manufacturing processes, development will be supported and the dividends of the long process node of 14nm will continue to be enjoyed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655da6c9b905daafadf40cdfae6383ca\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This is an important window period.</p><p><b>In terms of performance, SMIC will get orders to support operations</b>。 In 2020Q4, SMIC experienced a decline in gross profit margin, which SMIC admitted was due to \"changes in the international ecology.\"</p><p>SMIC is also bound to take this opportunity to carry out \"breakthrough\" work. Before the change of the U.S. government in December last year, there was news that SMIC and ASML were negotiating on EUV lithography equipment.<b>The pressure caused by this \"chip crisis\" on the U.S. industry will become a bargaining chip for SMIC to further \"break through\".</b></p><p>Of course, the United States still has restrictions on manufacturing processes below 10nm. The market has not expected too much of a further relaxation of \"sanctions\". After all, Biden has no reason to allow SMIC to achieve technological breakthroughs.</p><p>Part of the reason why SMIC failed to master the 7nm process technology was that it could not obtain extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment from ASML, a Dutch lithography manufacturer. Behind this is also the United States-starting in 2018, the Netherlands has held at least four meetings with the United States to discuss whether to supply EUV lithography to Chinese companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f002d8139515fa6676857d61e75d490\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After Biden took office,<b>Although it tried its best to discredit the Trump administration, the political legacy of \"sanctions against China\" was ambiguously accepted</b>, so far there are not many influential statements.</p><p>Will continued sanctions hurt the global industrial chain? That's all Trump's pot!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c913f243d1bf5f2126d3c6565146560c\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>SMIC's \"breakthrough\", where is the road ahead?</b></p><p>For SMIC, the market's depressed sentiment will be eased in the short term, and the valuation will be further repaired. But in the long run, we still have to continue to be under pressure under \"sanctions\".</p><p>Therefore, in order not to be controlled by others, SMIC is also silently trying to catch up with the level of \"top students\".</p><p>In December 2020, Liang Mengsong, a big coffee in the chip industry, submitted a resignation letter to SMIC (although he later appeared in the list of executives), and revealed an important piece of information in the letter:<b>The development of SMIC's 7nm technology has been completed and will immediately enter venture mass production in April next year</b>。 The eight most critical and arduous technologies of 5nm and 3nm have also been launched in an orderly manner. Only after the arrival of EUV lithography, they can enter the comprehensive development stage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c896767e601f175e478e00ca51e35f\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The reason for Liang Mengsong's resignation is said to be related to Jiang Shangyi, the godfather of chips that SMIC just invited back and the veteran of TSMC.</p><p>Jiang Shangyi's return is an important move.</p><p>It is Jiang's father's dream to develop advanced packaging and system integration technology in mainland China.<b>And Jiang Shangyi has a good relationship with ASML. ASML dominates the global lithography market, Jiang Shangyi and others have contributed a lot</b>。</p><p>Jiang's father holds the red thread,<b>SMIC can at least sit down with ASML and have a good talk, or seek other ways to bypass the US \"blockade\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467c977bcf09d36ca11667136d44899d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although, everything has not been confirmed yet.</p><p>Capital naturally seeks advantages and avoids disadvantages. At present, it is unknown whether and how long the \"sanctions\" against SMIC will be relaxed. Only one thing is certain about the capital market:<b>It is even more difficult for the American emperor at the top of the pyramid to give up the cake</b>。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After being stuck for half a year, SMIC finally took a breath</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter being stuck for half a year, SMIC finally took a breath\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-03 08:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The winner of the \"chip crisis\"?<b>“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Obtained the US 14nm license. \"</b></p><p>Yesterday's news stirred up today's market sentiment, and Western media such as CNBC and The Wall Street Journal also reported related news.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34033eeb8e6d504b9b220624b1510de7\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In December last year, the US Department of Commerce will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Included in the \"Entity List\" suppressed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Valuation. The relaxation of \"sanctions\" this time may be related to the current global shortage of chips-the \"seven injuries\" of the US imperialist may have made itself uncomfortable.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>\"Sanctions\" relaxed, in line with expectations</b></p><p><b>The relaxation of \"sanctions\" is basically in line with expectations.</b></p><p>It can be seen from the news that among some suppliers in the United States, Company A has obtained relevant licenses, while Company L and Company K are still waiting for the results. They will also obtain licenses one after another. The licenses take 10nm as the cutoff point, and 14nm and above process-related products have been licensed, but nodes of 10nm and below have not obtained licenses.</p><p>A, L and K respectively refer to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>Applied Materials,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">RAM Study</a>(Lam Research), American business Kelei (KLA).</p><p>Trump, who is known as \"America first\", may not have expected that beating any link in the global industrial chain would have unpredictable effects.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297e3e249ee82777b45b4bd1ee6ace91\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the one hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>In-depth cooperation with some US suppliers, sanctions will directly disrupt the supply chains of these companies</b>。 SMIC's main American suppliers include A, L, and K, while downstream American customers also include Qualcomm and Broadcom.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45a374657acd2b3bfff3bf230d2c8e9f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These companies attach great importance to the Chinese market and maintain good interactive relations with Chinese customers such as SMIC. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>He once actively lobbied the Trump administration for Huawei. It can be speculated that the loosening of this policy was only due to the effective communication between American equipment manufacturers and SMIC.</p><p><b>On the other hand, \"sanctions\" have disrupted the global chip supply chain and caused a backlash to the United States.</b></p><p>Last year, Huawei began to hoard chips in response to US \"sanctions\", occupying<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And the production capacity of fabs such as MediaTek. Later, the production of wafer fabs slowed down due to the epidemic, resulting in a large backlog of orders. However, the orders during the epidemic have not been digested, and the economy has begun to recover again, bringing about an increase in chip demand in consumer electronics, automotive electronics, industrial production and other scenarios.</p><p><b>The \"chip crisis\" quickly spread to U.S. consumer electronics, automobile and other industries, bringing violent shocks</b>。 The revenue that the two major U.S. car companies-General Motors and Ford should have during the year has been lowered by about 1/3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>There are even plans to suspend production at three factories in North America for this purpose. Since the existing chip demand exceeds 30% of the supply capacity, it will take at least 3 to 4 quarters to achieve a balance between supply and demand, which means that the \"chip crisis\" may last until 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8939d25e16c01a64dc1e3f4ce4cab17e\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>American companies can't wait so long. The Biden administration has just taken office,<b>Representatives of several technology companies, auto industry and other business interest groups rushed to send letters to Biden, calling the issue a national priority</b>。</p><p>As a result, Trump acted as a demon and asked Biden to wipe his ass.</p><p>After Biden took office, he immediately signed an executive order targeting the \"chip crisis\" and quickly cooperated with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>A cooperation has been reached. The latter will spend approximately 233.2 billion yuan to build six new 5nm chip factories in Arizona, USA. Construction will start at the beginning of this year and be put into production in 2024.</p><p>But the distant water of 2024 cannot quench the near thirst of 2021.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>The window period of \"breakthrough\"?</b></p><p><b>The loosening of \"sanctions\" this time also exceeded expectations.</b></p><p>The market may not have expected before that the approved license also covers the 14nm process.</p><p>As early as December 31, it was reported that SMIC had obtained a license from the U.S. Department of Commerce for the equipment required for its mature manufacturing process, and would issue 40,000 to 50,000 pieces of equipment for production capacity at one time. In this regard, the previous market expectation was that process equipment above 28nm would be approved one after another.</p><p>SMIC's 14nm is still the most advanced process that can be mass-produced for the time being. The 14nm process has been mass-produced in 2019Q4, and the yield rate has reached the industry's mass production level. At the same time, the second-generation FinFET has entered small-scale trial production.</p><p>The 14nm process was also approved this time, which means that SMIC will get a respite in the mature process that contributes the most to revenue; In the field of advanced manufacturing processes, development will be supported and the dividends of the long process node of 14nm will continue to be enjoyed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655da6c9b905daafadf40cdfae6383ca\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This is an important window period.</p><p><b>In terms of performance, SMIC will get orders to support operations</b>。 In 2020Q4, SMIC experienced a decline in gross profit margin, which SMIC admitted was due to \"changes in the international ecology.\"</p><p>SMIC is also bound to take this opportunity to carry out \"breakthrough\" work. Before the change of the U.S. government in December last year, there was news that SMIC and ASML were negotiating on EUV lithography equipment.<b>The pressure caused by this \"chip crisis\" on the U.S. industry will become a bargaining chip for SMIC to further \"break through\".</b></p><p>Of course, the United States still has restrictions on manufacturing processes below 10nm. The market has not expected too much of a further relaxation of \"sanctions\". After all, Biden has no reason to allow SMIC to achieve technological breakthroughs.</p><p>Part of the reason why SMIC failed to master the 7nm process technology was that it could not obtain extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment from ASML, a Dutch lithography manufacturer. Behind this is also the United States-starting in 2018, the Netherlands has held at least four meetings with the United States to discuss whether to supply EUV lithography to Chinese companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f002d8139515fa6676857d61e75d490\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After Biden took office,<b>Although it tried its best to discredit the Trump administration, the political legacy of \"sanctions against China\" was ambiguously accepted</b>, so far there are not many influential statements.</p><p>Will continued sanctions hurt the global industrial chain? That's all Trump's pot!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c913f243d1bf5f2126d3c6565146560c\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>SMIC's \"breakthrough\", where is the road ahead?</b></p><p>For SMIC, the market's depressed sentiment will be eased in the short term, and the valuation will be further repaired. But in the long run, we still have to continue to be under pressure under \"sanctions\".</p><p>Therefore, in order not to be controlled by others, SMIC is also silently trying to catch up with the level of \"top students\".</p><p>In December 2020, Liang Mengsong, a big coffee in the chip industry, submitted a resignation letter to SMIC (although he later appeared in the list of executives), and revealed an important piece of information in the letter:<b>The development of SMIC's 7nm technology has been completed and will immediately enter venture mass production in April next year</b>。 The eight most critical and arduous technologies of 5nm and 3nm have also been launched in an orderly manner. Only after the arrival of EUV lithography, they can enter the comprehensive development stage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c896767e601f175e478e00ca51e35f\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The reason for Liang Mengsong's resignation is said to be related to Jiang Shangyi, the godfather of chips that SMIC just invited back and the veteran of TSMC.</p><p>Jiang Shangyi's return is an important move.</p><p>It is Jiang's father's dream to develop advanced packaging and system integration technology in mainland China.<b>And Jiang Shangyi has a good relationship with ASML. ASML dominates the global lithography market, Jiang Shangyi and others have contributed a lot</b>。</p><p>Jiang's father holds the red thread,<b>SMIC can at least sit down with ASML and have a good talk, or seek other ways to bypass the US \"blockade\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467c977bcf09d36ca11667136d44899d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although, everything has not been confirmed yet.</p><p>Capital naturally seeks advantages and avoids disadvantages. At present, it is unknown whether and how long the \"sanctions\" against SMIC will be relaxed. Only one thing is certain about the capital market:<b>It is even more difficult for the American emperor at the top of the pyramid to give up the cake</b>。</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb458f2c3eed8796a1e2ecf37309073","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","00981":"中芯国际"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113167033","content_text":"“芯片危机”的赢家？\n\n“中芯国际获美国14nm许可。”\n昨天这则消息，搅动了今天的市场情绪，CNBC、《华尔街时报》等西方媒体也报道了相关新闻。\n\n去年12月，美国商务部将中芯国际列入“实体清单”，压制了中芯国际的估值。而这一次“制裁”放宽，可能与目前全球芯片的短缺有关——美帝的“七伤拳”或已让自己都开始顶不顺。\n01\n“制裁”放宽，符合预期\n此次“制裁”放宽，基本符合预期。\n消息中可以看到，美国部分供应商中A公司已经拿到相关许可证，L公司和K公司还在等待结果，判断后边也会陆续拿到许可证，许可证以10nm为分界点，14nm及以上工艺制程相关产品获得许可，10nm及以下节点未拿到许可证。\nA、L、K分别指代应用材料（Applied Materials）、拉姆研究（Lam Research）、美商科磊（KLA）。\n号称“美国优先”的特朗普也许没想到，敲打全球化产业链的任何一个环节，都会造成难以预料的影响。\n\n一方面，中芯国际与部分美国供应商深入合作，制裁将直接扰乱这些公司的供应链。中芯国际的主要美国供应商就包括A、L、K三家，而下游的美国客户还包括高通和博通。\n\n这些公司重视中国市场，与中芯国际等中国客户也保持着良好的互动关系。此前高通曾经替华为积极游说特朗普政府。可以推测，在美国设备厂家和中芯国际的有效沟通下，才有了此次政策的松动。\n另一方面是“制裁”扰乱了全球芯片供应链，对美国造成反噬。\n去年华为为应对美国“制裁”开始囤积芯片，挤占了台积电和联发科等晶圆厂的产能。后来晶圆厂又因疫情导致生产放缓，大量订单积压。而疫情期间的订单还没消化完，经济又开始复苏，带来消费电子、汽车电子、工业生产等场景下芯片需求提升。\n“芯片危机”迅速传到到美国消费电子、汽车等行业，带来剧烈震荡。美国两大车企——通用、福特年内本应拥有的营收被拉低约1/3，通用汽车甚至计划为此暂停北美三座工厂的生产。由于现有芯片需求超过供应能力的30%，要实现供需平衡，至少需3~4个季度，这意味着“芯片危机”可能持续到2022年。\n\n美国公司等不了这么久了。拜登政府刚上任，多家技术公司、汽车行业和其他商业利益团体的协会代表，就急忙向拜登致信，称该问题为国家优先事项。\n结果特朗普作的妖，还要拜登擦屁股。\n拜登上台后，立即签署了针对“芯片危机”的行政命令，并很快与台积电达成了合作，后者将斥资约2332亿元人民币在美国亚利桑那州新建6座5nm芯片厂，今年初开工，2024年投产。\n可是2024的远水，不解2021的近渴。\n02\n“突围”的窗口期？\n这次“制裁”松绑也有超出预期的部分。\n此前市场可能没想到，获批许可证还涵盖14nm制程。\n早在12月31日就有消息，中芯国际获得美国商务部对其成熟制程所需设备的许可证，并将一次性发放4万~5万片产能所用的设备。对此，此前市场的预期是：28nm以上制程设备将陆续获批。\n中芯国际的14nm暂时还属于可量产的最先进制程。14nm工艺已在2019Q4量产，良品率达业界量产水准，同时第二代FinFET已进入小量试产。\n这次14nm制程也获通过，意味着中芯国际在营收贡献最大的成熟制程上将获喘息机会；在先进制程领域，发展将得到支持，持续享受14nm这个长工艺节点的红利。\n\n这是一个重要的窗口期。\n在业绩上，中芯国际将获得订单以支持运转。2020Q4中芯国际就出现了毛利率下降的情况，中芯国际承认是由于“国际生态的变动”所致。\n中芯国际也势必借此开展“突围”工作。去年12月美国政府换届前，就有消息曝出中芯国际与ASML就EUV光刻机设备谈判的消息。这次“芯片危机”对美国产业造成的压力，将成为中芯国际进一步“突围”的筹码。\n当然，美国方面对10nm以下的制程依然限制。市场对“制裁”进一步放宽也未抱过分期待，毕竟拜登不存在允许中芯国际取得技术突破的理由。\n中芯国际之所以未能掌握7nm制程工艺，部分原因在于不能获得荷兰光刻机大厂ASML的极紫外（EUV）光刻机设备。这背后也是美国——2018年开始，荷兰至少与美国展开4此会议，讨论是否向中国企业供应EUV光刻机。\n\n拜登上台后，虽然极力抹黑特朗普政府，但“对华制裁”这一政治遗产却是暧昧不明地接受了，截至目前没有太多有影响力的表态。\n继续制裁会伤害全球产业链？那可都是特朗普的锅！\n\n03\n中芯“突围”，前路何在？\n对于中芯国际而言，市场的压抑情绪将短期得到缓解，估值进一步修复。可长期来看，还是要在“制裁”之下继续承压。\n所以为了不受制于人，中芯国际也在默默努力追赶“尖子生”的水平。\n2020年12月，芯片界大咖梁孟松给中芯国际递交了一封辞职信（虽然后来他又出现在高管名单中），并在信中透露了一项重要信息：中芯国际7nm技术的开发已经完成，明年四月就可以马上进入风险量产。5nm和3nm最关键、也是最艰巨的8大项技术也已经有序展开，只待EUV光刻机的到来，就可以进入全面开发阶段。\n\n梁孟松辞职的原因，据说与中芯国际刚请回来的芯片教父级人物、台积电开朝元老蒋尚义有关。\n蒋尚义的回归是重要的一步棋。\n在大陆发展先进封装和系统整合技术，是蒋爸的梦想。而蒋尚义与ASML交好。ASML称霸全球光刻机市场，蒋尚义等人功不可没。\n有蒋爸牵红线，中芯至少可与ASML坐下来好好谈，或是寻求其他方式绕开美国“封锁”。\n\n尽管，一切还没有实锤。\n资本自然是趋利避害的。目前对中芯国际“制裁”会不会放宽、能放宽多久尚不可知。唯有一点对资本市场确定的：金字塔顶端的美帝，要让出蛋糕是难上加难。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":0.9,"00981":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363891535,"gmtCreate":1614122846927,"gmtModify":1704888348068,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!!!","listText":"Great!!!","text":"Great!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363891535","repostId":"2113332312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2113332312","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"6","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200"},"pubTimestamp":1614096346,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2113332312?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-24 00:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Just now, the US stock market was in shock! Federal Reserve Chairman Speaks: Easing Continues! The big reversal is coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2113332312","media":"中国基金报","summary":"全球的资本市场血流成河啊！白天A股抱团股跌，晚上比特币也闪崩，美股开盘后，外国的抱团科技股也崩了！纳斯达克一度暴跌了近4%！不过惊魂时刻很快过去，美联储主席在盘中紧急发话，表示宽松政策将继续，美股纷纷","content":"<p><div>The global capital market is bloodshed! During the day, A-share Baotuan stocks fell, and Bitcoin also crashed at night. After the US stock market opened, foreign Baotuan technology stocks also collapsed! The Nasdaq once plummeted nearly 4%! However, the shocking moment passed quickly. The chairman of the Federal Reserve made an emergency statement during the session, saying that the easing policy would continue, and U.S. stocks began to rebound! What exactly happened? The U.S. stock market once crashed. On the evening of the 23rd, after the U.S. stock market opened, technology stocks and Chinese concept stocks all plummeted. If you look at the Dow Jones index alone, it only fell by more than 200 points, or less than 1%, which seems to be nothing. But look at the Nasdaq, where technology stocks gather together, and it collapsed by nearly 4% directly...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Just now, the US stock market was in shock! Federal Reserve Chairman Speaks: Easing Continues! The big reversal is coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust now, the US stock market was in shock! Federal Reserve Chairman Speaks: Easing Continues! The big reversal is coming\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/6\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中国基金报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-24 00:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The global capital market is bloodshed! During the day, A-share Baotuan stocks fell, and Bitcoin also crashed at night. After the US stock market opened, foreign Baotuan technology stocks also collapsed! The Nasdaq once plummeted nearly 4%! However, the shocking moment passed quickly. The chairman of the Federal Reserve made an emergency statement during the session, saying that the easing policy would continue, and U.S. stocks began to rebound! What exactly happened? The U.S. stock market once crashed. On the evening of the 23rd, after the U.S. stock market opened, technology stocks and Chinese concept stocks all plummeted. If you look at the Dow Jones index alone, it only fell by more than 200 points, or less than 1%, which seems to be nothing. But look at the Nasdaq, where technology stocks gather together, and it collapsed by nearly 4% directly...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TSLA":"特斯拉","03086":"华夏纳指"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2113332312","content_text":"全球的资本市场血流成河啊！白天A股抱团股跌，晚上比特币也闪崩，美股开盘后，外国的抱团科技股也崩了！纳斯达克一度暴跌了近4%！不过惊魂时刻很快过去，美联储主席在盘中紧急发话，表示宽松政策将继续，美股纷纷开启反弹！究竟发生了什么？美股一度崩盘23日晚间，美股开盘后，科技股、中概股齐齐暴跌，如果单看道琼斯指数，只跌了200多点，跌幅还不到1%，似乎不算什么。但是看看科技股扎堆的纳斯达克，直接就崩了近4%！再看看具体个股，苹果跌了5%，特斯拉跌了12%，市值跌破6000亿美元，已经抹平今年全部涨幅！大型科技股全线下跌，亚马逊、谷歌、奈飞都跌了2%。另外，中概股也全线暴跌！拼多多跌7%，百度跌10%、阿里跌4.5%、B站跌近10%。国内新能源车三剑客，蔚来、理想跌近15%，小鹏汽车跌去了10%！！为什么会出现这一幕？分析认为，市场风向转到了美联储在未来加息概率的抬头。随着美国经济的复苏，为防止未来通胀增长过快，美国美联储势必会开始考虑减少刺激、收紧市场流动性。现在越来越多的机构加入了预期将来会加息的阵营。美联储此前为应对疫情的无限量QE，已经消耗了大部分的货币政策操作空间，截至目前美联储已将基金利率降至0.25%的极低水平，且明确表示不会出现负利率。那么无论经济是否复苏，在利率工具上都只存在加息一个选项了。在联邦基金利率期货市场上，押注美联储最快将在2022年年底加息的概率已经高达70%，这一概率上周还是50%。至于2023年3月加息，几乎是交易员们眼中板上钉钉的事。美联储主席鲍威尔紧急护盘美股跌幅收窄就在美股一副股灾的样子的时候，美联储主席鲍威尔发话了。这两天，美联储主席鲍威尔从美东时间周二上午10点开始为期两天的国会作证。投资者期待听到鲍威尔对债券收益率和通货膨胀预期上升的评论。23日晚间，鲍威尔表示，美联储不会仅仅为了应对强劲的劳动力市场而收紧货币政策。距离实现目标还有很长的路，进一步取得进展需要一段时间。复苏远远没有实现，未来的路(仍然)高度不确定。形势表明，前景将在2021年稍晚得到改善。鲍威尔称，在夏季经济反弹之后，经济增长势头大幅放缓；如果债券购买速度有任何变化，美联储会提早很多来明确传达信息；宽松货币政策将继续存在。鲍威尔表示，恐慌性经济给通货膨胀留下了“重大影响”；对于受恐慌性经济影响最大的行业，消费价格尤其疲软。许多行业的就业市场因餐饮业、酒店业等行业的巨大损失受到显著影响。目前，通货膨胀率仍低于2%的长期目标。在鲍威尔讲话之际，美股三大指数短线回升，回到了那副舞照跳马照跑的景象。Swissquote高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya说，鲍威尔“将为投资者带来成功或破灭的一天。”大家直接看图吧。近日，全球最大对冲基金公司桥水创始人达利欧在公司网站发文，介绍了他们创建的“泡沫指标”，并发出警告称，虽然美股整体目前还难言泡沫，但是“新兴科技股票”，即投资者，尤其是散户投资者当下的宠儿，现在已经进入了“极端泡沫区间”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"03086":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":284534079942960,"gmtCreate":1710472516046,"gmtModify":1710472519494,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Y92.SI\">$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Y92.SI\">$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284534079942960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164552265,"gmtCreate":1624231241057,"gmtModify":1703830852481,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"l","listText":"l","text":"l","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164552265","repostId":"164635550","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":164635550,"gmtCreate":1624193580000,"gmtModify":1703830515266,"author":{"id":"3524105760314666","authorId":"3524105760314666","name":"华商韬略","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbcbbcdfdd125576e4d9038a38b0dc86","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524105760314666","authorIdStr":"3524105760314666"},"themes":[],"title":"國貨驚豔618：安踏增速大幅領先，耐克阿迪遭滑鐵盧","htmlText":"今年的618，安踏戰績驕人。 持續大半個月的618大促，終於落下了帷幕，從天貓公佈的數據來看，不少行業的銷量，在往年基礎上有了大幅增長。 不過，在運動鞋服類目，兩大外資巨頭——耐克和阿迪卻出現了大幅下滑，下滑比例均接近30%。與之形成鮮明對比的，是中國運動品牌的不俗表現，其中安踏（2020.HK）在天貓618期間（6月1日-6月18日）銷量同比增長超過50%，銷售額超過5億元，成爲國貨崛起的品牌樣本。 安踏之所以取得如此亮眼成績的一個重要原因，是隨着國內新冠疫苗大規模接種，民衆對於疫情的恐慌情緒逐步減輕，戶外運動需求較之去年出現大幅增長，受益於此，運動產品消費需求日趨旺盛。 從今年天貓618大促公佈的數據中，我們不難發現，儘管排在運動鞋服類目前五位，但耐克和阿迪達斯的同比銷售額都出現了大幅下滑的情況。 相比之下，以安踏爲代表的國產陣營則增長迅猛，安踏在運動鞋服的增長率分別達到61%和26%，進一步引領國產品牌搶奪更多市場。從運動鞋服的整體銷售額來看，安踏銷量增長50%，逼近6億元人民幣大關，超出第二名李寧銷量6千餘萬元。 很顯然新疆棉事件依然在影響着國內消費者的購買選擇，國民消費漸向國牌的趨勢越發明顯。 打鐵還需自身硬，這一次“新疆棉花”只是觸發點而非決定性因素。此前十多年，以安踏、李寧爲代表的中國頭部品牌，蓄勢已久。 與2008年那一撥體育用品民族品牌的猝然爆發不同，今天中國體育用品吃得不只是民族感情的紅利。產品、品牌、國家自豪感，多波次疊加成就了中國品牌的強勢地位。 這一次，中國品牌突入而至的歷史機遇，不僅能拿得住更能拿得穩、拿得久。 新疆棉事件以來，尤其是簽約王一博後，安踏在產品科研實力及設計上的突破得以被越來越多的中國消費者看到，並逐漸受追捧，這也直接反映在天貓618大促的數據上。 安踏連續贊助了8屆奧運會，爲29支中國國家隊打造過奧運裝備，在2019年還成爲了首個","listText":"今年的618，安踏戰績驕人。 持續大半個月的618大促，終於落下了帷幕，從天貓公佈的數據來看，不少行業的銷量，在往年基礎上有了大幅增長。 不過，在運動鞋服類目，兩大外資巨頭——耐克和阿迪卻出現了大幅下滑，下滑比例均接近30%。與之形成鮮明對比的，是中國運動品牌的不俗表現，其中安踏（2020.HK）在天貓618期間（6月1日-6月18日）銷量同比增長超過50%，銷售額超過5億元，成爲國貨崛起的品牌樣本。 安踏之所以取得如此亮眼成績的一個重要原因，是隨着國內新冠疫苗大規模接種，民衆對於疫情的恐慌情緒逐步減輕，戶外運動需求較之去年出現大幅增長，受益於此，運動產品消費需求日趨旺盛。 從今年天貓618大促公佈的數據中，我們不難發現，儘管排在運動鞋服類目前五位，但耐克和阿迪達斯的同比銷售額都出現了大幅下滑的情況。 相比之下，以安踏爲代表的國產陣營則增長迅猛，安踏在運動鞋服的增長率分別達到61%和26%，進一步引領國產品牌搶奪更多市場。從運動鞋服的整體銷售額來看，安踏銷量增長50%，逼近6億元人民幣大關，超出第二名李寧銷量6千餘萬元。 很顯然新疆棉事件依然在影響着國內消費者的購買選擇，國民消費漸向國牌的趨勢越發明顯。 打鐵還需自身硬，這一次“新疆棉花”只是觸發點而非決定性因素。此前十多年，以安踏、李寧爲代表的中國頭部品牌，蓄勢已久。 與2008年那一撥體育用品民族品牌的猝然爆發不同，今天中國體育用品吃得不只是民族感情的紅利。產品、品牌、國家自豪感，多波次疊加成就了中國品牌的強勢地位。 這一次，中國品牌突入而至的歷史機遇，不僅能拿得住更能拿得穩、拿得久。 新疆棉事件以來，尤其是簽約王一博後，安踏在產品科研實力及設計上的突破得以被越來越多的中國消費者看到，並逐漸受追捧，這也直接反映在天貓618大促的數據上。 安踏連續贊助了8屆奧運會，爲29支中國國家隊打造過奧運裝備，在2019年還成爲了首個","text":"今年的618，安踏戰績驕人。 持續大半個月的618大促，終於落下了帷幕，從天貓公佈的數據來看，不少行業的銷量，在往年基礎上有了大幅增長。 不過，在運動鞋服類目，兩大外資巨頭——耐克和阿迪卻出現了大幅下滑，下滑比例均接近30%。與之形成鮮明對比的，是中國運動品牌的不俗表現，其中安踏（2020.HK）在天貓618期間（6月1日-6月18日）銷量同比增長超過50%，銷售額超過5億元，成爲國貨崛起的品牌樣本。 安踏之所以取得如此亮眼成績的一個重要原因，是隨着國內新冠疫苗大規模接種，民衆對於疫情的恐慌情緒逐步減輕，戶外運動需求較之去年出現大幅增長，受益於此，運動產品消費需求日趨旺盛。 從今年天貓618大促公佈的數據中，我們不難發現，儘管排在運動鞋服類目前五位，但耐克和阿迪達斯的同比銷售額都出現了大幅下滑的情況。 相比之下，以安踏爲代表的國產陣營則增長迅猛，安踏在運動鞋服的增長率分別達到61%和26%，進一步引領國產品牌搶奪更多市場。從運動鞋服的整體銷售額來看，安踏銷量增長50%，逼近6億元人民幣大關，超出第二名李寧銷量6千餘萬元。 很顯然新疆棉事件依然在影響着國內消費者的購買選擇，國民消費漸向國牌的趨勢越發明顯。 打鐵還需自身硬，這一次“新疆棉花”只是觸發點而非決定性因素。此前十多年，以安踏、李寧爲代表的中國頭部品牌，蓄勢已久。 與2008年那一撥體育用品民族品牌的猝然爆發不同，今天中國體育用品吃得不只是民族感情的紅利。產品、品牌、國家自豪感，多波次疊加成就了中國品牌的強勢地位。 這一次，中國品牌突入而至的歷史機遇，不僅能拿得住更能拿得穩、拿得久。 新疆棉事件以來，尤其是簽約王一博後，安踏在產品科研實力及設計上的突破得以被越來越多的中國消費者看到，並逐漸受追捧，這也直接反映在天貓618大促的數據上。 安踏連續贊助了8屆奧運會，爲29支中國國家隊打造過奧運裝備，在2019年還成爲了首個","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85564b62f87f4858884908d247e13eb4","width":"640","height":"174"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47b18741afe04fd9a856df4d7d257d13","width":"1080","height":"723"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fee16ce0ab84269abca3544290215ea","width":"1080","height":"1600"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164635550","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109804596,"gmtCreate":1619679802215,"gmtModify":1704727883838,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nothing new ?","listText":"Nothing new ?","text":"Nothing new ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109804596","repostId":"1199597620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199597620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619678199,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199597620?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 14:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When will the Fed scale back QE?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199597620","media":" 明晰笔谈","summary":"核心观点\n北京时间4月29日凌晨，美联储公布4月议息会议结果。利率工具方面，将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变的决议得到所有委员一致同意，美联储重申将维持利率在当前水平直至确信经济度过危机，实现其最大","content":"<p><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p><b>In the early morning of April 29, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its April interest rate meeting. In terms of interest rate instruments, the resolution to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed by all members. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it would keep interest rates at the current level until it was convinced that the economy had survived the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement kept the excess reserve ratio (IOER) unchanged at 0.1% and the discount rate unchanged at 0.25%. In terms of asset purchases, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than US $80 billion per month and no less than US $80 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made in achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. Purchase MBS at a rate of no less than US $40 billion, increase holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS, purchase CMBS as needed, and continue overnight reverse repurchase and repurchase operations. In terms of economic expectations, the Fed removed the statement that \"after the pace of recovery slowed, economic activity and employment indicators have recently picked up, although the sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak; inflation continues to be below 2%\", replacing it with \"Economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. The sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak, but have improved; inflation has risen, mainly reflecting temporary factors\", with some adjustments based on the minutes of the March interest rate meeting.</b></p><p><b>Recent fundamentals of the United States: In terms of the epidemic,</b>The overall epidemic situation in the United States is relatively stable, and the popularization of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel controls.<b>Employment,</b>In March, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States was higher than expected and the previous value. The accelerated vaccination speed, the relatively stable performance of the epidemic, and the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus to provide funds for enterprises jointly promoted the continued acceleration of employment improvement.<b>In terms of inflation,</b>The low base caused by the epidemic in the same period last year pushed U.S. inflation higher year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sub-item, and rising inflation expectations were fulfilled to a certain extent.<b>Consumption,</b>The US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the epidemic have jointly promoted the outstanding performance of U.S. consumption. Consumer confidence is gradually picking up, but there is still room for improvement.<b>In terms of investment,</b>New orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods except transportation both returned to positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods except transportation recorded a new high again after January this year, and investment in the United States rebounded moderately.<b>In terms of economic prosperity,</b>Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in the United States exceeded expectations in March, reflecting the current acceleration of the recovery of the U.S. economy with the support of the stable epidemic and fiscal policy.</p><p><b>Comments: The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccine injections in the United States and recent economic data in the United States.</b>The Fed mentioned in its statement that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement; At the last meeting, the Fed's view was that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remained weak. At the same time, the Fed's statement also indicated that it believes that the risks have also been reduced. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook is still at risk at this meeting, compared with the last view-which poses considerable risks to the economic outlook-this time The wording shows that the Fed believes that the risks have been reduced. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data allow the market to expect shifts in these Fed language; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, the follow-up meeting of the Federal Reserve will be more important.<b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous argument, that is, it believed that it reflected the impact of temporary factors to a large extent, and clearly wrote it into the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent question and answer session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell once again emphasized that inflation is temporary and believed that inflation would rise further and then slow down.<b>Regarding the risk aspects of stocks, house prices and liquidity, the chairman of the Federal Reserve also touched on, and this information provided a perspective on the prospect of monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risk, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that risk events similar to Archegos liquidation are not worth worrying about, but something in the stock market does reflect a market bubble. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell said that housing has not caused financial stability concerns, and housing prices reflect a state of short supply. This may provide a basis for subsequent reductions in the scale of MBS purchases, that is, the strong situation of the real estate market makes the Federal Reserve feel at ease to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.<b>The Federal Reserve continues the current pace of bond purchases. We expect that the action to reduce the scale of bond purchases may occur around the end of the year, but it will send a signal to reduce the scale of bond purchases earlier and allow sufficient time to communicate with the market. The interest rate meeting in June will be A very important time,</b>By then, the vaccination process in the United States may also gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. By then, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore more plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals, but the Federal Reserve may have to wait until the end of this year or next year. Only at the beginning of the year will the actual action be taken, and the details will mainly depend on changes in the epidemic and improvements in the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may take the lead in reducing the purchase of MBS. In a statement after this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous argument. And Powell once again emphasized the importance of the job market in his speech, saying that there are still a large number of unemployed people in the United States, so the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US Market Performance:</b>After the Federal Reserve issued its interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term and fell slightly. U.S. stocks generally rose that day. The Dow closed down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closed up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.11%; The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell in the short term, giving up all the gains during the day and turning down, and then fluctuating all the way down; The US Dollar Index fluctuated downward after short-term diving, reaching the lowest value of 90.5569 in the month; International gold prices and silver prices both rose in the short term after the release of the interest rate decision, and rose sharply again after Powell's speech.</p><p><b>Results of interest rate meeting</b></p><p><b>In terms of interest rates,</b>At this Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, the resolution to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed by all members. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it would keep the interest rate at the current level until it was convinced that the economy had survived the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. The excess reserve ratio (IOER) will remain unchanged at 0.1%, and the discount rate will remain unchanged at 0.25%, which will continue to remain unchanged, in line with market expectations.</p><p><b>In asset purchases,</b>The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to buy Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"before making substantial progress in achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals\", and increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and buy CMBS according to the need to promote smooth market operation and provide loose financial conditions, thus supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses; Continue to conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations with a quoted interest rate of 0.00%, and set a daily transaction limit of US $80 billion per party; Continue to carry out repurchase operations to support effective policy implementation and maintain the smooth operation of the short-term US dollar capital market.</p><p><b>As for economic expectations,</b>The Fed removed the statement that \"after the pace of recovery slowed, economic activity and employment indicators have picked up recently, although sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak; inflation continues to be below 2%\" and replaced it with \"Economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. Sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak but have improved; inflation has risen, mainly reflecting transitory factors\"; Amend \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook\" to \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on the economy, and the economic outlook remains at risk,\" with a significant moderation in semantics; Reiterate the views that \"the path of economic development will largely depend on the spread process of the virus, including the progress of vaccination\" and \"the overall financial environment will remain loose\"; Overall, certain adjustments have been made based on the minutes of the interest rate meeting in March this year.</p><p><b>Powell's speech</b></p><p><b>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that day: The recovery is still uneven and incomplete, and it is indeed expected that there will be further downward pressure on short-term interest rates; The areas most affected by the epidemic have improved, and they are very worried that the epidemic will leave permanent scars on the job market, and do not see the level of \"long-term economic trauma\" previously worried; Labor market conditions continue to improve, unemployment remains high, and expenditure growth stimulates prices, which may be temporary; Until the (dual) goal is achieved, it is appropriate for interest rates to be close to zero, and now is not the time to start talking about tapering bond purchases; Overall financial stability is uneven, but risks are manageable.</b></p><p><b>As for economic expectations,</b>Powell Says Recovery Remains Uneven, Incomplete; PCE is expected to exceed 2% annually; Economic activity has just picked up recently, and it will take some time to meet the mark; It will take some time to raise inflation expectations, which is expected to be accompanied by a strong labor market recovery; Inflation expectations return to levels around 2018 and 2014; Hopefully, inflation expectations will rise and be slightly higher than the levels of the past few decades; It is hoped that inflation expectations will be firmly controlled at 2%, and the break-even inflation rate will be very close to the target level, so we will pay close attention to inflation expectations; Further downward pressure on short-term interest rates is indeed expected.</p><p><b>In terms of epidemic,</b>Powell says areas worst hit by the pandemic have improved; To make substantial progress in economic recovery, significant progress will also be made in the epidemic; Very worried that the epidemic will leave permanent damage to the job market, and did not see the level of \"long-term economic trauma\" that was previously worried.</p><p><b>Employment and inflation,</b>Powell said labor market conditions continue to improve and unemployment remains high; Before the slowdown, there is a further rise in inflation to some extent; Expenditure growth stimulates prices, which may be temporary; With the labor market still weak, it seems unlikely that we will see a sustained rise in inflation; Full employment is still a long way off; If inflation expectations are really higher than the 2% level, tools will be used to bring them down; One-time price increases are unlikely to lead to sustained inflation.</p><p><b>As for monetary policy,</b>Powell said interest rates close to zero are appropriate until the (dual) goal is achieved; The temporary rise in inflation this year doesn't meet rate hike's criteria; Now is not the time to start talking about tapering; If necessary, the Fed will try its best to support the economic recovery; Tools will be used to support Federal Funds rate if needed; There is no need to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) at this time.</p><p><b>In terms of financial stability,</b>Powell said that we are closely monitoring the rise in housing prices and do not believe that housing prices pose financial stability concerns; The risk of Archegos liquidation event has not risen to the level of systemic risk; Some companies have problems with risk management, and companies like Archegos should have understood market risk; We are investigating risk management deficiencies related to the Archegos liquidation; High prices for some assets; Overall financial stability is uneven, but risks are controllable; Leverage in the financial system is not a problem, and the risk of financing is low; Monetary funds stimulate risk factors, but they are not systemic problems.</p><p><b>US Recent Fundamentals</b></p><p><b>In terms of epidemic situation, the overall epidemic situation in the United States is relatively stable, and the popularization of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel controls.</b>Since March this year, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States has mostly remained below 80,000 on that day, and the overall performance is stable. The control of the epidemic is mainly due to the stricter epidemic prevention measures taken by Biden after taking office, and the current rapid spread of vaccination in the United States: as of April 27, data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that the current number of COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations in the United States is 232 million doses, covering 42.7% of the total population, of which 81.8% are covered by the elderly over 65 years old; The number of vaccinations per 100 people has reached 69 doses, which is leading in the world. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently decided to relax social regulations and allow people who have completed vaccination not to wear masks outdoors, indicating that the popularity of vaccines is providing conditions for the United States to relax travel controls.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2b75d462c298291169e2f7de6e79378\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab33e92146d1ded015bd0988ae8e76c\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in March was higher than expected and the previous value. Many factors such as the accelerated vaccination speed, the relatively stable performance of the epidemic, and the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus to provide funds for enterprises jointly promoted the continued acceleration of employment improvement.</b>From the perspective of data changes, the non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 916,000 after seasonally adjustment in March, compared with the expected 647,000, and the previous value of 379,000. Since January this year, the number of new non-farm employment has begun to increase month by month, and the improvement speed has accelerated. The main reason behind this may be related to the accelerated vaccination speed in the United States and the relatively stable performance of the epidemic. At the same time, the fiscal stimulus policy of US $1.9 trillion It also provides funds for companies to help the job market recover. In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March came from the leisure and hotel industries, government departments, construction industries, and education and health care services.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a95ad1bd5d9f9e2af451ace160a4d97\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7574ced9fbd4c08159a140fd76491b5e\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of inflation, the low base generated by the epidemic last year pushed U.S. inflation higher year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sub-item, and rising inflation expectations were fulfilled to a certain extent.</b>In March, the U.S. CPI recorded 2.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.9 pcts from the previous value of 1.7%, and the core CPI recorded 1.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 pcts from the previous value of 1.3%. An important reason for the sharp increase in inflation year-on-year readings is that the U.S. CPI from April to June last year was-1.2%, 0.1% and 0.6% year-on-year respectively. Under the influence of the base effect, the current U.S. inflation has entered a high reading stage in the second quarter. From the perspective of CPI sub-items, the sub-item that brought the strongest pulling effect on the U.S. CPI year-on-year in March was the energy sub-item. The year-on-year growth rate of the U.S. CPI energy sub-item in March was as high as 13.2%, which was significantly higher than the 2.4% in February. increase. In addition, in March, the U.S. CPI food and beverage sub-item and transportation sub-item also had a strong pulling effect, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4% and 5.8% respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0197b2b2ff9a93fcc47f5a335a5f08e2\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of consumption, the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the epidemic have jointly promoted the outstanding performance of U.S. consumption. Consumer confidence has gradually picked up but there is still room for improvement.</b>Seasonally adjusted retail and food service sales in the United States recorded US $619.1 billion in March, hitting a record high again since January this year, with a year-on-year increase of 27.72% and a month-on-month increase of 9.82%. The main reason for the outstanding performance of consumption data in March may be the deregulation brought about by the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the epidemic. In terms of consumer confidence, high-frequency data shows that U.S. consumer confidence is gradually picking up, but there is still much room for improvement in absolute levels compared with before the outbreak.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e47581b90ed71a1177ec4939b5567c1\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd63f97b75996d5b9805c766c848eda\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of investment, new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods except transportation both returned to positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods except transportation recorded a record high again after January this year, and the investment situation in the United States rebounded moderately.</b>The seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods in the United States recorded US $256.3 billion in March, a year-on-year increase of 25.02% and a month-on-month increase of 0.55%. The main reason for the high year-on-year increase was the low base in the same period last year. After seasonal adjustment in March, the scale of new orders for durable goods except transportation was US $174.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.62%, recording a record high again after January this year. The data of new orders for durable goods shows that the investment situation in the United States continues its moderate recovery trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d199b058ffda424a73fdaac83b176401\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic prosperity, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in the United States exceeded expectations in March, reflecting the current acceleration of the recovery of the U.S. economy with the support of the stable epidemic and fiscal policy.</b>The U.S. manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations and recorded 64.7, a new high since December 1982, and the non-manufacturing PMI recorded 63.7, a new high since August 2005. Specifically, in terms of manufacturing, the price index, supplier delivery index, output index, new order index and order inventory index in the manufacturing PMI sub-items were 85.6, 76.6, 68.1, 68.0 and 67.5 respectively, all of which continued to run above 60. At a high level, the customer inventory index further fell to 29.9, which was the only item in the manufacturing PMI sub-items in March that was lower than the boom-bust line; In terms of non-manufacturing, the price index, business activity index, new orders index and supplier delivery index all exceeded 60, which were 74.0, 69.4, 67.2 and 61.0 respectively, and each sub-item was above the boom-bust line. The U.S. PMI in March exceeded expectations, reflecting the current acceleration of the recovery of the U.S. economy under the support of the stable epidemic and fiscal policy. Considering the continued implementation of fiscal policy and the continuous improvement of the U.S. vaccination rate, it is expected that the U.S. economic prosperity will continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd1afb1b23c068c4c5eed8a88999127\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e491aadef280a483fe56f624f4a284e\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Comments on Federal Reserve Meeting</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccine injections in the United States and the recent economic data performance in the United States.</b>The Fed mentioned in its statement that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement; At the last meeting, the Fed's view was that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remained weak. At the same time, the Fed's statement also indicated that it believes that the risks have also been reduced. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook is still at risk at this meeting, compared with the last view-which poses considerable risks to the economic outlook-this time The wording shows that the Fed believes that the risks have been reduced. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data allow the market to expect shifts in these Fed language; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, subsequent meetings of the Federal Reserve will be more important.</p><p><b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous argument, that is, it believed that it reflected the impact of temporary factors to a large extent, and clearly wrote it into the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent question and answer session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell once again emphasized that inflation is temporary and believed that inflation would rise further and then slow down.</p><p><b>Regarding the risk aspects of stocks, house prices and liquidity, the chairman of the Federal Reserve also touched on, and this information provided a perspective on the prospect of monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risks, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that risk events similar to the Archegos liquidation are not worth worrying about, but some situations in the stock market do reflect market bubbles. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell said that housing has not caused financial stability concerns, and housing prices reflect a state of short supply. This may provide a basis for subsequent reductions in the scale of MBS purchases, that is, the strong situation of the real estate market makes the Federal Reserve feel at ease to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve continues the current pace of bond purchases. We expect that it may take actions to reduce the scale of bond purchases around the end of the year, but it will send a signal to reduce the scale of bond purchases earlier and allow sufficient time to communicate with the market. The interest rate meeting in June will be It is a very important time,</b>By then, the vaccination process in the United States may gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. By then, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore more plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals, but the Federal Reserve may have to wait until the end of this year or next year. Only early will there be real action, depending mainly on changes in the epidemic and improvements in the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may take the lead in reducing the purchase of MBS. In a statement after this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous argument. And Powell once again emphasized the importance of the job market in his speech, saying that there are still a large number of unemployed people in the United States, so the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US Market Performance</b></p><p>After the Federal Reserve issued its interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term and fell slightly. U.S. stocks generally rose that day. The Dow closed down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closed up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.11%; The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell in the short term, giving up all the gains during the day and turning down, and then fluctuating all the way down; The US Dollar Index fluctuated downward after short-term diving, reaching the lowest value of 90.5569 in the month; International gold prices and silver prices both rose in the short term after the release of the interest rate decision, and rose sharply again after Powell's speech.</p>","source":"mxbt","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When will the Fed scale back QE?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen will the Fed scale back QE?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 明晰笔谈</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 14:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p><b>In the early morning of April 29, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its April interest rate meeting. In terms of interest rate instruments, the resolution to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed by all members. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it would keep interest rates at the current level until it was convinced that the economy had survived the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement kept the excess reserve ratio (IOER) unchanged at 0.1% and the discount rate unchanged at 0.25%. In terms of asset purchases, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than US $80 billion per month and no less than US $80 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made in achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. Purchase MBS at a rate of no less than US $40 billion, increase holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS, purchase CMBS as needed, and continue overnight reverse repurchase and repurchase operations. In terms of economic expectations, the Fed removed the statement that \"after the pace of recovery slowed, economic activity and employment indicators have recently picked up, although the sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak; inflation continues to be below 2%\", replacing it with \"Economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. The sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak, but have improved; inflation has risen, mainly reflecting temporary factors\", with some adjustments based on the minutes of the March interest rate meeting.</b></p><p><b>Recent fundamentals of the United States: In terms of the epidemic,</b>The overall epidemic situation in the United States is relatively stable, and the popularization of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel controls.<b>Employment,</b>In March, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States was higher than expected and the previous value. The accelerated vaccination speed, the relatively stable performance of the epidemic, and the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus to provide funds for enterprises jointly promoted the continued acceleration of employment improvement.<b>In terms of inflation,</b>The low base caused by the epidemic in the same period last year pushed U.S. inflation higher year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sub-item, and rising inflation expectations were fulfilled to a certain extent.<b>Consumption,</b>The US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the epidemic have jointly promoted the outstanding performance of U.S. consumption. Consumer confidence is gradually picking up, but there is still room for improvement.<b>In terms of investment,</b>New orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods except transportation both returned to positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods except transportation recorded a new high again after January this year, and investment in the United States rebounded moderately.<b>In terms of economic prosperity,</b>Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in the United States exceeded expectations in March, reflecting the current acceleration of the recovery of the U.S. economy with the support of the stable epidemic and fiscal policy.</p><p><b>Comments: The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccine injections in the United States and recent economic data in the United States.</b>The Fed mentioned in its statement that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement; At the last meeting, the Fed's view was that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remained weak. At the same time, the Fed's statement also indicated that it believes that the risks have also been reduced. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook is still at risk at this meeting, compared with the last view-which poses considerable risks to the economic outlook-this time The wording shows that the Fed believes that the risks have been reduced. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data allow the market to expect shifts in these Fed language; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, the follow-up meeting of the Federal Reserve will be more important.<b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous argument, that is, it believed that it reflected the impact of temporary factors to a large extent, and clearly wrote it into the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent question and answer session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell once again emphasized that inflation is temporary and believed that inflation would rise further and then slow down.<b>Regarding the risk aspects of stocks, house prices and liquidity, the chairman of the Federal Reserve also touched on, and this information provided a perspective on the prospect of monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risk, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that risk events similar to Archegos liquidation are not worth worrying about, but something in the stock market does reflect a market bubble. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell said that housing has not caused financial stability concerns, and housing prices reflect a state of short supply. This may provide a basis for subsequent reductions in the scale of MBS purchases, that is, the strong situation of the real estate market makes the Federal Reserve feel at ease to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.<b>The Federal Reserve continues the current pace of bond purchases. We expect that the action to reduce the scale of bond purchases may occur around the end of the year, but it will send a signal to reduce the scale of bond purchases earlier and allow sufficient time to communicate with the market. The interest rate meeting in June will be A very important time,</b>By then, the vaccination process in the United States may also gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. By then, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore more plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals, but the Federal Reserve may have to wait until the end of this year or next year. Only at the beginning of the year will the actual action be taken, and the details will mainly depend on changes in the epidemic and improvements in the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may take the lead in reducing the purchase of MBS. In a statement after this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous argument. And Powell once again emphasized the importance of the job market in his speech, saying that there are still a large number of unemployed people in the United States, so the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US Market Performance:</b>After the Federal Reserve issued its interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term and fell slightly. U.S. stocks generally rose that day. The Dow closed down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closed up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.11%; The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell in the short term, giving up all the gains during the day and turning down, and then fluctuating all the way down; The US Dollar Index fluctuated downward after short-term diving, reaching the lowest value of 90.5569 in the month; International gold prices and silver prices both rose in the short term after the release of the interest rate decision, and rose sharply again after Powell's speech.</p><p><b>Results of interest rate meeting</b></p><p><b>In terms of interest rates,</b>At this Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, the resolution to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed by all members. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it would keep the interest rate at the current level until it was convinced that the economy had survived the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. The excess reserve ratio (IOER) will remain unchanged at 0.1%, and the discount rate will remain unchanged at 0.25%, which will continue to remain unchanged, in line with market expectations.</p><p><b>In asset purchases,</b>The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to buy Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"before making substantial progress in achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals\", and increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and buy CMBS according to the need to promote smooth market operation and provide loose financial conditions, thus supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses; Continue to conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations with a quoted interest rate of 0.00%, and set a daily transaction limit of US $80 billion per party; Continue to carry out repurchase operations to support effective policy implementation and maintain the smooth operation of the short-term US dollar capital market.</p><p><b>As for economic expectations,</b>The Fed removed the statement that \"after the pace of recovery slowed, economic activity and employment indicators have picked up recently, although sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak; inflation continues to be below 2%\" and replaced it with \"Economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. Sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak but have improved; inflation has risen, mainly reflecting transitory factors\"; Amend \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook\" to \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on the economy, and the economic outlook remains at risk,\" with a significant moderation in semantics; Reiterate the views that \"the path of economic development will largely depend on the spread process of the virus, including the progress of vaccination\" and \"the overall financial environment will remain loose\"; Overall, certain adjustments have been made based on the minutes of the interest rate meeting in March this year.</p><p><b>Powell's speech</b></p><p><b>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that day: The recovery is still uneven and incomplete, and it is indeed expected that there will be further downward pressure on short-term interest rates; The areas most affected by the epidemic have improved, and they are very worried that the epidemic will leave permanent scars on the job market, and do not see the level of \"long-term economic trauma\" previously worried; Labor market conditions continue to improve, unemployment remains high, and expenditure growth stimulates prices, which may be temporary; Until the (dual) goal is achieved, it is appropriate for interest rates to be close to zero, and now is not the time to start talking about tapering bond purchases; Overall financial stability is uneven, but risks are manageable.</b></p><p><b>As for economic expectations,</b>Powell Says Recovery Remains Uneven, Incomplete; PCE is expected to exceed 2% annually; Economic activity has just picked up recently, and it will take some time to meet the mark; It will take some time to raise inflation expectations, which is expected to be accompanied by a strong labor market recovery; Inflation expectations return to levels around 2018 and 2014; Hopefully, inflation expectations will rise and be slightly higher than the levels of the past few decades; It is hoped that inflation expectations will be firmly controlled at 2%, and the break-even inflation rate will be very close to the target level, so we will pay close attention to inflation expectations; Further downward pressure on short-term interest rates is indeed expected.</p><p><b>In terms of epidemic,</b>Powell says areas worst hit by the pandemic have improved; To make substantial progress in economic recovery, significant progress will also be made in the epidemic; Very worried that the epidemic will leave permanent damage to the job market, and did not see the level of \"long-term economic trauma\" that was previously worried.</p><p><b>Employment and inflation,</b>Powell said labor market conditions continue to improve and unemployment remains high; Before the slowdown, there is a further rise in inflation to some extent; Expenditure growth stimulates prices, which may be temporary; With the labor market still weak, it seems unlikely that we will see a sustained rise in inflation; Full employment is still a long way off; If inflation expectations are really higher than the 2% level, tools will be used to bring them down; One-time price increases are unlikely to lead to sustained inflation.</p><p><b>As for monetary policy,</b>Powell said interest rates close to zero are appropriate until the (dual) goal is achieved; The temporary rise in inflation this year doesn't meet rate hike's criteria; Now is not the time to start talking about tapering; If necessary, the Fed will try its best to support the economic recovery; Tools will be used to support Federal Funds rate if needed; There is no need to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) at this time.</p><p><b>In terms of financial stability,</b>Powell said that we are closely monitoring the rise in housing prices and do not believe that housing prices pose financial stability concerns; The risk of Archegos liquidation event has not risen to the level of systemic risk; Some companies have problems with risk management, and companies like Archegos should have understood market risk; We are investigating risk management deficiencies related to the Archegos liquidation; High prices for some assets; Overall financial stability is uneven, but risks are controllable; Leverage in the financial system is not a problem, and the risk of financing is low; Monetary funds stimulate risk factors, but they are not systemic problems.</p><p><b>US Recent Fundamentals</b></p><p><b>In terms of epidemic situation, the overall epidemic situation in the United States is relatively stable, and the popularization of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel controls.</b>Since March this year, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States has mostly remained below 80,000 on that day, and the overall performance is stable. The control of the epidemic is mainly due to the stricter epidemic prevention measures taken by Biden after taking office, and the current rapid spread of vaccination in the United States: as of April 27, data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that the current number of COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations in the United States is 232 million doses, covering 42.7% of the total population, of which 81.8% are covered by the elderly over 65 years old; The number of vaccinations per 100 people has reached 69 doses, which is leading in the world. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently decided to relax social regulations and allow people who have completed vaccination not to wear masks outdoors, indicating that the popularity of vaccines is providing conditions for the United States to relax travel controls.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2b75d462c298291169e2f7de6e79378\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab33e92146d1ded015bd0988ae8e76c\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in March was higher than expected and the previous value. Many factors such as the accelerated vaccination speed, the relatively stable performance of the epidemic, and the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus to provide funds for enterprises jointly promoted the continued acceleration of employment improvement.</b>From the perspective of data changes, the non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 916,000 after seasonally adjustment in March, compared with the expected 647,000, and the previous value of 379,000. Since January this year, the number of new non-farm employment has begun to increase month by month, and the improvement speed has accelerated. The main reason behind this may be related to the accelerated vaccination speed in the United States and the relatively stable performance of the epidemic. At the same time, the fiscal stimulus policy of US $1.9 trillion It also provides funds for companies to help the job market recover. In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March came from the leisure and hotel industries, government departments, construction industries, and education and health care services.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a95ad1bd5d9f9e2af451ace160a4d97\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7574ced9fbd4c08159a140fd76491b5e\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of inflation, the low base generated by the epidemic last year pushed U.S. inflation higher year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sub-item, and rising inflation expectations were fulfilled to a certain extent.</b>In March, the U.S. CPI recorded 2.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.9 pcts from the previous value of 1.7%, and the core CPI recorded 1.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 pcts from the previous value of 1.3%. An important reason for the sharp increase in inflation year-on-year readings is that the U.S. CPI from April to June last year was-1.2%, 0.1% and 0.6% year-on-year respectively. Under the influence of the base effect, the current U.S. inflation has entered a high reading stage in the second quarter. From the perspective of CPI sub-items, the sub-item that brought the strongest pulling effect on the U.S. CPI year-on-year in March was the energy sub-item. The year-on-year growth rate of the U.S. CPI energy sub-item in March was as high as 13.2%, which was significantly higher than the 2.4% in February. increase. In addition, in March, the U.S. CPI food and beverage sub-item and transportation sub-item also had a strong pulling effect, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4% and 5.8% respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0197b2b2ff9a93fcc47f5a335a5f08e2\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of consumption, the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the epidemic have jointly promoted the outstanding performance of U.S. consumption. Consumer confidence has gradually picked up but there is still room for improvement.</b>Seasonally adjusted retail and food service sales in the United States recorded US $619.1 billion in March, hitting a record high again since January this year, with a year-on-year increase of 27.72% and a month-on-month increase of 9.82%. The main reason for the outstanding performance of consumption data in March may be the deregulation brought about by the US $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the epidemic. In terms of consumer confidence, high-frequency data shows that U.S. consumer confidence is gradually picking up, but there is still much room for improvement in absolute levels compared with before the outbreak.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e47581b90ed71a1177ec4939b5567c1\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd63f97b75996d5b9805c766c848eda\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of investment, new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods except transportation both returned to positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods except transportation recorded a record high again after January this year, and the investment situation in the United States rebounded moderately.</b>The seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods in the United States recorded US $256.3 billion in March, a year-on-year increase of 25.02% and a month-on-month increase of 0.55%. The main reason for the high year-on-year increase was the low base in the same period last year. After seasonal adjustment in March, the scale of new orders for durable goods except transportation was US $174.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.62%, recording a record high again after January this year. The data of new orders for durable goods shows that the investment situation in the United States continues its moderate recovery trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d199b058ffda424a73fdaac83b176401\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic prosperity, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in the United States exceeded expectations in March, reflecting the current acceleration of the recovery of the U.S. economy with the support of the stable epidemic and fiscal policy.</b>The U.S. manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations and recorded 64.7, a new high since December 1982, and the non-manufacturing PMI recorded 63.7, a new high since August 2005. Specifically, in terms of manufacturing, the price index, supplier delivery index, output index, new order index and order inventory index in the manufacturing PMI sub-items were 85.6, 76.6, 68.1, 68.0 and 67.5 respectively, all of which continued to run above 60. At a high level, the customer inventory index further fell to 29.9, which was the only item in the manufacturing PMI sub-items in March that was lower than the boom-bust line; In terms of non-manufacturing, the price index, business activity index, new orders index and supplier delivery index all exceeded 60, which were 74.0, 69.4, 67.2 and 61.0 respectively, and each sub-item was above the boom-bust line. The U.S. PMI in March exceeded expectations, reflecting the current acceleration of the recovery of the U.S. economy under the support of the stable epidemic and fiscal policy. Considering the continued implementation of fiscal policy and the continuous improvement of the U.S. vaccination rate, it is expected that the U.S. economic prosperity will continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd1afb1b23c068c4c5eed8a88999127\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e491aadef280a483fe56f624f4a284e\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Comments on Federal Reserve Meeting</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccine injections in the United States and the recent economic data performance in the United States.</b>The Fed mentioned in its statement that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement; At the last meeting, the Fed's view was that the industry sectors most negatively affected by the pandemic remained weak. At the same time, the Fed's statement also indicated that it believes that the risks have also been reduced. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook is still at risk at this meeting, compared with the last view-which poses considerable risks to the economic outlook-this time The wording shows that the Fed believes that the risks have been reduced. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data allow the market to expect shifts in these Fed language; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, subsequent meetings of the Federal Reserve will be more important.</p><p><b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous argument, that is, it believed that it reflected the impact of temporary factors to a large extent, and clearly wrote it into the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent question and answer session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell once again emphasized that inflation is temporary and believed that inflation would rise further and then slow down.</p><p><b>Regarding the risk aspects of stocks, house prices and liquidity, the chairman of the Federal Reserve also touched on, and this information provided a perspective on the prospect of monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risks, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that risk events similar to the Archegos liquidation are not worth worrying about, but some situations in the stock market do reflect market bubbles. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell said that housing has not caused financial stability concerns, and housing prices reflect a state of short supply. This may provide a basis for subsequent reductions in the scale of MBS purchases, that is, the strong situation of the real estate market makes the Federal Reserve feel at ease to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve continues the current pace of bond purchases. We expect that it may take actions to reduce the scale of bond purchases around the end of the year, but it will send a signal to reduce the scale of bond purchases earlier and allow sufficient time to communicate with the market. The interest rate meeting in June will be It is a very important time,</b>By then, the vaccination process in the United States may gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. By then, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore more plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals, but the Federal Reserve may have to wait until the end of this year or next year. Only early will there be real action, depending mainly on changes in the epidemic and improvements in the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may take the lead in reducing the purchase of MBS. In a statement after this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous argument. And Powell once again emphasized the importance of the job market in his speech, saying that there are still a large number of unemployed people in the United States, so the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US Market Performance</b></p><p>After the Federal Reserve issued its interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term and fell slightly. U.S. stocks generally rose that day. The Dow closed down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closed up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.11%; The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell in the short term, giving up all the gains during the day and turning down, and then fluctuating all the way down; The US Dollar Index fluctuated downward after short-term diving, reaching the lowest value of 90.5569 in the month; International gold prices and silver prices both rose in the short term after the release of the interest rate decision, and rose sharply again after Powell's speech.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P8a1SR0FCYCN6rI2jtpD2w\"> 明晰笔谈</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P8a1SR0FCYCN6rI2jtpD2w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199597620","content_text":"核心观点\n北京时间4月29日凌晨，美联储公布4月议息会议结果。利率工具方面，将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变的决议得到所有委员一致同意，美联储重申将维持利率在当前水平直至确信经济度过危机，实现其最大就业和物价稳定的双重目标。美联储FOMC声明将超额准备金率（IOER）维持在0.1%不变，贴现利率维持在0.25%不变。资产购买方面，美联储重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS，并根据需要增持国债和MBS、购买CMBS，继续进行隔夜逆回购和回购操作。经济预期方面，美联储移除了关于“在复苏步伐放缓之后，经济活动和就业指标最近有所回升，尽管受大流行病影响最严重的部门仍然疲弱；通货膨胀率继续低于2%”的表述，将其替换成“随着疫苗接种工作的进展和强有力的政策支持，经济活动和就业指标得到了加强。受大流行影响最严重的部门仍然疲弱，但已有改善；通货膨胀率上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”，在今年3月的议息会议纪要的基础上做出了一定调整。\n美国近期基本面：疫情方面，美国疫情整体较为平稳，疫苗的普及为放松出行管制提供了条件。就业方面，3月美国新增非农就业人数高于预期和前值，疫苗接种速度加快、疫情表现相对稳定和1.9万亿美元财政刺激为企业提供资金等多因素共同推动就业改善速度继续加快。通胀方面，去年同期疫情产生的低基数推动美国3月通胀同比走高，主要拉动来自于能源分项，持续上涨的通胀预期一定程度上得到兑现。消费方面，1.9万亿美元财政刺激和疫情趋稳共同推动美国消费表现亮眼，消费者信心逐步回暖但仍有改善空间。投资方面，美国耐用品新增订单和除运输外耐用品新增订单环比均回正，其中除运输外耐用品新增订单继今年1月后再次录得新高，美国投资状况温和回升。经济景气方面，美国3月制造业和非制造业PMI均超出预期，反映出当前在疫情平稳和财政政策支撑下美国经济的修复有所加快。\n点评：美联储对经济前景更加乐观，这与美国的新冠疫苗注射进度和美国近期的经济数据表现一致。美联储在声明中提到最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱，但已经显示出了改善；而上次会议中美联储的看法还是最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱。同时，美联储声明还表明其认为风险也有所降低，尽管这次会议美联储仍然认为经济前景仍旧面临风险，但是相较于上次的看法——对经济前景构成相当大的风险——这次的措辞显示出美联储认为风险已经减少。一方面，经济数据的积极变化使得市场能够预期美联储这些措辞的转变；另一方面，后续随着经济继续恢复，美联储后续的会议将更加重要。在通胀的问题上美联储依旧延续此前的论调，即认为在很大程度上反映了暂时性因素的影响，而且将其明确写进了美联储的会议声明中。在之后的问答环节美联储主席鲍威尔再次强调了通胀是暂时性的，并认为通货膨胀将进一步有所上升，然后减缓。关于股票、房价以及流动性的风险层面，美联储主席也有所涉及，并且这些信息为货币政策的前景提供了角度。关于股票风险，美联储主席鲍威尔认为类似于Archegos爆仓的风险事件并不值得担忧，但是股市的某些东西的确体现出市场泡沫。在回应房价快速上涨时鲍威尔表示住房方面并未引发金融稳定性顾虑，房价体现出的是供不应求的状态。这或为后续减少MBS购买规模提供基础，即房地产市场的强劲局面使得美联储可能放心减少MBS的购买规模，而国债购买规模涉及到与财政政策的配合，美联储可能将更加谨慎。美联储延续当前购债速度，我们预计减少购债规模的行动可能于年底前后发生，但会更早发出减少购债规模的信号，并留出充裕时间与市场沟通，6月份的议息会议将会是一个很重要的时点，届时美国的疫苗注射进程可能也将逐渐达到群体免疫所需要的接种覆盖面积，届时美联储可能开始更多地探讨减少购债的计划，发出更多市场信号，但美联储可能要等到今年年底或明年年初才真正行动，具体将主要视疫情的变化和就业市场的改善而定。操作上，美联储可能将率先减少MBS的购买量。美联储在本次议息会议后的声明中重申不会改变债券购买速度，直到就业和通胀目标取得“实质性的进一步进展”，延续此前论调。并且鲍威尔讲话里面再次强调就业市场的重要性，表示美国仍然有大量失业人口，因此减少购债的计划将于就业市场的改善节奏息息相关。\n美国市场表现：美联储发布利率决议后，三大股指短线下行，小幅回落，当日美股大体上行，道指收跌0.49%，标普500指数收涨0.14%，纳指收涨0.11%；10年期美债收益率短线下行，回吐日内全部涨幅转跌，随后一路震荡下行；美元指数短线跳水后震荡下行，向下探得月内最低值90.5569；国际金价、银价均在利率决议发布后短线上行，并在鲍威尔讲话之后再度大涨。\n议息会议结果\n利率工具方面，在本次美联储议息会议上，将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变的决议得到所有委员一致同意，美联储重申将维持利率在当前水平直至确信经济度过危机，实现其最大就业和物价稳定的双重目标。超额准备金率（IOER）将维持在0.1%不变，贴现利率维持在0.25%不变，继续按兵不动，符合市场预期。\n资产购买方面，美联储重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS，并根据促进平稳的市场运作、提供宽松金融条件的需要来增持国债和MBS、购买CMBS，从而支持信贷流向家庭和企业；继续进行报价利率为0.00%的隔夜逆回购协议操作，设定每天每方交易限额为800亿美元；继续进行回购操作以支持有效的政策实施，维护短期美元资金市场的平稳运行。\n经济预期方面，美联储移除了关于“在复苏步伐放缓之后，经济活动和就业指标最近有所回升，尽管受大流行病影响最严重的部门仍然疲弱；通货膨胀率继续低于2%”的表述，将其替换成“随着疫苗接种工作的进展和强有力的政策支持，经济活动和就业指标得到了加强。受大流行影响最严重的部门仍然薄弱，但已有改善；通货膨胀率上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”；将“持续的公共卫生危机继续给经济活动、就业和通货膨胀带来了压力，并给经济前景带来相当大的风险”修改为“持续的公共卫生危机继续给经济带来了压力，经济前景仍然面临风险”，语义显著缓和；重申“经济发展的道路将在很大程度上取决于病毒的传播过程，包括疫苗接种的进展”“总体金融环境维持宽松”等观点；整体上在今年3月的议息会议纪要基础上做出了一定调整。\n鲍威尔的讲话\n美联储主席鲍威尔在当日新闻发布会上表示：复苏仍然不平衡、不完整，确实预计短期利率会有进一步下行的压力；受疫情影响最严重的领域有所改善，非常担心疫情对就业市场留下永久伤痕，没有看到之前担忧的“经济长期创伤”水平；劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企，支出增长刺激物价，可能是暂时性的；在实现（双重）目标前，利率接近零是合适的，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候；整体金融稳定情况参差不齐，但风险可控。\n经济预期方面，鲍威尔表示，复苏仍然不平衡、不完整；PCE年率预计将超过2%；经济活动最近刚刚回升，要达到标准还需要一段时间；需要一段时间才能上调通胀预期，预计这将伴随着劳动力市场的强劲复苏；通胀预期回归到2018年和2014年左右的水平；希望通胀预期上升，并稍高于过去几十年的水平；希望通胀预期牢固控制在2%，损益平衡通胀率很接近目标水平，会密切关注通胀预期；确实预计短期利率会有进一步下行的压力。\n疫情方面，鲍威尔表示，受疫情影响最严重的领域有所改善；经济复苏要取得实质性的进展，也将在疫情方面取得重大进展；非常担心疫情对就业市场留下永久伤害，没有看到之前担忧的“经济长期创伤”水平。\n就业与通胀方面，鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企；在出现放缓之前，某种程度上通胀出现进一步的上升；支出增长刺激物价，可能是暂时性的；在劳动力市场仍然疲软的情况下，我们似乎不太可能看到通胀持续上升；离充分就业还有很长的路要走；如果通胀预期真的高于2%的水平，就会使用工具将其降下来；一次性物价上涨不太可能导致持续的通胀。\n货币政策方面，鲍威尔表示，在实现（双重）目标前，利率接近零是合适的；今年通胀的暂时上升不符合加息的标准；现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候；如有需要，美联储将尽力支持经济复苏；如有需要，将使用工具来支持联邦基金利率；目前没有必要调整超额准备金利率（IOER）。\n金融稳定方面，鲍威尔表示，我们正在密切关注房价的上升，不认为住房价格带来金融稳定性担忧；Archegos爆仓事件风险并没有上升到系统性风险的水平；有些公司的风险管理出现了问题，Archegos这样的企业本应理解市场风险；我们正在调查与Archegos爆仓事件相关的风险管理缺陷；一些资产的价格高企；整体金融稳定情况参差不齐，但风险可控；金融系统中的杠杆不是问题，融资的风险较低；货币基金刺激风险因素，但并非系统性问题。\n美国近期基本面\n疫情方面，美国疫情整体较为平稳，疫苗的普及为放松出行管制提供了条件。今年三月以来，美国当日新增确诊病例数大都维持在8万以下，整体表现平稳。疫情得到控制主要是由于拜登上台后采取了更为严格的防疫措施，同时当前美国疫苗接种快速普及：截至4月27日，美疾控中心（CDC）数据显示当前美国已接种新冠疫苗数量为2.32亿剂，覆盖了总人口的42.7%，其中65岁以上老龄人口已覆盖81.8%；每百人接种数达到69剂次，在全球范围内较为领先。美疾控中心（CDC）日前决定放松社交规定，允许完成疫苗接种的民众在户外不佩戴口罩，显示疫苗的普及正在为美国放松出行管制提供条件。就业方面，3月美国新增非农就业人数高于预期和前值，疫苗接种速度加快、疫情表现相对稳定和1.9万亿美元财政刺激为企业提供资金等多因素共同推动就业改善速度继续加快。从数据变化上看，美国3月季调后非农就业人口增91.6万人，预期64.7万人，前值37.9万人。从今年1月开始，新增非农就业人数便开始逐月递增，改善速度有所加快，其背后的主要原因或与美国疫苗接种速度加快，疫情表现相对稳定有关，同时1.9万亿美元财政刺激政策也为企业提供了资金，帮助就业市场的恢复。分行业来看，3月份对美国新增非农就业人数贡献较高的行业来自于休闲和酒店业、政府部门、建筑业以及教育和保健服务业。通胀方面，去年疫情产生的低基数推动美国3月通胀同比走高，主要拉动来自于能源分项，持续上涨的通胀预期一定程度上得到兑现。3月美国CPI同比录得2.6%，较前值1.7%上涨0.9pct，核心CPI同比录得1.6%，较前值1.3%上涨0.3pcts，去年受疫情影响导致的低基数效应是3月美国通胀同比读数大幅上涨的一项重要原因，去年4至6月美国CPI同比分别为-1.2%、0.1%和0.6%，在基数效应的影响下，当前的美国通胀进入了二季度高读数阶段。从CPI的分项上来看，给3月份美国CPI同比带来拉动效应最强的分项是能源分项，3月美国CPI能源分项同比增速高达13.2%，相较2月份的2.4%显著提升。此外，3月美国CPI食品饮料分项和交通运输分项的拉动作用同样较强，同比增速分别为3.4%和5.8%。消费方面，1.9万亿美元财政刺激和疫情趋稳共同推动美国消费表现亮眼，消费者信心逐步回暖但仍有改善空间。美国3月季调后零售和食品服务销售额录得6191亿美元，自今年1月以后再次创下历史新高，同比增长27.72%，环比增长9.82%。3月消费数据表现亮眼的主要原因或为1.9万亿美元财政刺激与疫情趋稳带来的管制放松。消费者信心方面，高频数据显示美国消费者信心正在逐步回暖，但绝对水平相较疫情发生前仍有较大的改善空间。投资方面，美国耐用品新增订单和除运输外耐用品新增订单环比均回正，其中除运输外耐用品新增订单继今年1月后再次录得史高，美国投资状况温和回升。美国3月季调后耐用品新增订单规模录得2563亿美元，同比上升25.02%，环比上升0.55%，同比高增的主要原因是去年同期基数较低。3月季调后除运输外耐用品新增订单规模为1744亿美元，同比上升12.82%，环比上升1.62%，继今年1月后再次录得历史新高。耐用品新增订单数据显示美国投资状况延续温和回升的趋势。经济景气方面，美国3月制造业和非制造业PMI均超出预期，反映出当前在疫情平稳和财政政策支撑下美国经济的修复有所加快。美国3月制造业PMI超预期录得64.7，创1982年12月以来新高，非制造业PMI录得63.7，创2005年8月以来新高。具体而言，制造业方面，制造业PMI分项中的物价指数、供应商交付指数、产出指数、新订单指数和订单库存指数分别为85.6、76.6、68.1、68.0、67.5，都继续运行在60以上高位，客户库存指数进一步下跌至29.9，是3月制造业PMI分项中唯一低于荣枯线的一项；非制造业方面，物价指数、商业活动指数、新订单指数和供应商交付指数均超过60，分别为74.0、69.4、67.2和61.0，各分项均位于荣枯线上方。美国3月PMI的超出预期反映了当前在疫情平稳和财政政策支撑下美国经济的修复有所加快，考虑到财政政策的持续执行和美国疫苗接种率的不断提高，预计美国经济景气度仍将延续回升。\n美联储会议点评\n美联储对经济前景更加乐观，这与美国的新冠疫苗注射进度和美国近期的经济数据表现一致。美联储在声明中提到最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱，但已经显示出了改善；而上次会议中美联储的看法还是最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱。同时，美联储声明还表明其认为风险也有所降低，尽管这次会议美联储仍然认为经济前景仍旧面临风险，但是相较于上次的看法——对经济前景构成相当大的风险——这次的措辞显示出美联储认为风险已经减少。一方面，经济数据的积极变化使得市场能够预期美联储这些措辞的转变；另一方面，随着经济继续恢复，美联储后续的会议将更加重要。\n在通胀的问题上美联储依旧延续此前的论调，即认为在很大程度上反映了暂时性因素的影响，而且将其明确写进了美联储的会议声明中。在之后的问答环节美联储主席鲍威尔再次强调了通胀是暂时性的，并认为通货膨胀将进一步有所上升，然后减缓。\n关于股票、房价以及流动性的风险层面，美联储主席也有所涉及，并且这些信息为货币政策的前景提供了角度。关于股票风险，美联储主席鲍威尔认为类似于Archegos爆仓的风险事件并不值得担忧，但是股市的某些情况的确体现出市场泡沫。在回应房价快速上涨时鲍威尔表示住房方面并未引发金融稳定性顾虑，房价体现出的是供不应求的状态。这或为后续减少MBS购买规模提供基础，即房地产市场的强劲局面使得美联储可能放心减少MBS的购买规模，而国债购买规模涉及到与财政政策的配合，美联储可能将更加谨慎。\n美联储延续当前购债速度，我们预计可能于年底前后采取减少购债规模的行动，但会更早发出减少购债规模的信号，并留出充裕时间与市场沟通，6月份的议息会议将会是一个很重要的时点，届时美国的疫苗注射进程可能也将逐渐达到群体免疫所需要的接种覆盖面积，届时美联储可能开始更多地探讨减少购债的计划，发出更多市场信号，但美联储可能要等到今年年底或明年年初才会真正行动，具体将主要视疫情的变化和就业市场的改善而定。操作上，美联储可能将率先减少MBS的购买量。美联储在本次议息会议后的声明中重申不会改变债券购买速度，直到就业和通胀目标取得“实质性的进一步进展”，延续此前论调。并且鲍威尔讲话里面再次强调就业市场的重要性，表示美国仍然有大量失业人口，因此减少购债的计划将于就业市场的改善节奏息息相关。\n美国市场表现\n美联储发布利率决议后，三大股指短线下行，小幅回落，当日美股大体上行，道指收跌0.49%，标普500指数收涨0.14%，纳指收涨0.11%；10年期美债收益率短线下行，回吐日内全部涨幅转跌，随后一路震荡下行；美元指数短线跳水后震荡下行，向下探得月内最低值90.5569；国际金价、银价均在利率决议发布后短线上行，并在鲍威尔讲话之后再度大涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365602217,"gmtCreate":1614732248439,"gmtModify":1704774527323,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365602217","repostId":"1113167033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113167033","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1614730873,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113167033?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-03 08:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"After being stuck for half a year, SMIC finally took a breath","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113167033","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"“芯片危机”的赢家？\n\n“中芯国际获美国14nm许可。”\n昨天这则消息，搅动了今天的市场情绪，CNBC、《华尔街时报》等西方媒体也报道了相关新闻。\n\n去年12月，美国商务部将中芯国际列入“实体清单”，","content":"<p>The winner of the \"chip crisis\"?<b>“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Obtained the US 14nm license. \"</b></p><p>Yesterday's news stirred up today's market sentiment, and Western media such as CNBC and The Wall Street Journal also reported related news.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34033eeb8e6d504b9b220624b1510de7\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In December last year, the US Department of Commerce will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Included in the \"Entity List\" suppressed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Valuation. The relaxation of \"sanctions\" this time may be related to the current global shortage of chips-the \"seven injuries\" of the US imperialist may have made itself uncomfortable.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>\"Sanctions\" relaxed, in line with expectations</b></p><p><b>The relaxation of \"sanctions\" is basically in line with expectations.</b></p><p>It can be seen from the news that among some suppliers in the United States, Company A has obtained relevant licenses, while Company L and Company K are still waiting for the results. They will also obtain licenses one after another. The licenses take 10nm as the cutoff point, and 14nm and above process-related products have been licensed, but nodes of 10nm and below have not obtained licenses.</p><p>A, L and K respectively refer to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>Applied Materials,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">RAM Study</a>(Lam Research), American business Kelei (KLA).</p><p>Trump, who is known as \"America first\", may not have expected that beating any link in the global industrial chain would have unpredictable effects.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297e3e249ee82777b45b4bd1ee6ace91\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the one hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>In-depth cooperation with some US suppliers, sanctions will directly disrupt the supply chains of these companies</b>。 SMIC's main American suppliers include A, L, and K, while downstream American customers also include Qualcomm and Broadcom.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45a374657acd2b3bfff3bf230d2c8e9f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These companies attach great importance to the Chinese market and maintain good interactive relations with Chinese customers such as SMIC. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>He once actively lobbied the Trump administration for Huawei. It can be speculated that the loosening of this policy was only due to the effective communication between American equipment manufacturers and SMIC.</p><p><b>On the other hand, \"sanctions\" have disrupted the global chip supply chain and caused a backlash to the United States.</b></p><p>Last year, Huawei began to hoard chips in response to US \"sanctions\", occupying<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And the production capacity of fabs such as MediaTek. Later, the production of wafer fabs slowed down due to the epidemic, resulting in a large backlog of orders. However, the orders during the epidemic have not been digested, and the economy has begun to recover again, bringing about an increase in chip demand in consumer electronics, automotive electronics, industrial production and other scenarios.</p><p><b>The \"chip crisis\" quickly spread to U.S. consumer electronics, automobile and other industries, bringing violent shocks</b>。 The revenue that the two major U.S. car companies-General Motors and Ford should have during the year has been lowered by about 1/3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>There are even plans to suspend production at three factories in North America for this purpose. Since the existing chip demand exceeds 30% of the supply capacity, it will take at least 3 to 4 quarters to achieve a balance between supply and demand, which means that the \"chip crisis\" may last until 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8939d25e16c01a64dc1e3f4ce4cab17e\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>American companies can't wait so long. The Biden administration has just taken office,<b>Representatives of several technology companies, auto industry and other business interest groups rushed to send letters to Biden, calling the issue a national priority</b>。</p><p>As a result, Trump acted as a demon and asked Biden to wipe his ass.</p><p>After Biden took office, he immediately signed an executive order targeting the \"chip crisis\" and quickly cooperated with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>A cooperation has been reached. The latter will spend approximately 233.2 billion yuan to build six new 5nm chip factories in Arizona, USA. Construction will start at the beginning of this year and be put into production in 2024.</p><p>But the distant water of 2024 cannot quench the near thirst of 2021.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>The window period of \"breakthrough\"?</b></p><p><b>The loosening of \"sanctions\" this time also exceeded expectations.</b></p><p>The market may not have expected before that the approved license also covers the 14nm process.</p><p>As early as December 31, it was reported that SMIC had obtained a license from the U.S. Department of Commerce for the equipment required for its mature manufacturing process, and would issue 40,000 to 50,000 pieces of equipment for production capacity at one time. In this regard, the previous market expectation was that process equipment above 28nm would be approved one after another.</p><p>SMIC's 14nm is still the most advanced process that can be mass-produced for the time being. The 14nm process has been mass-produced in 2019Q4, and the yield rate has reached the industry's mass production level. At the same time, the second-generation FinFET has entered small-scale trial production.</p><p>The 14nm process was also approved this time, which means that SMIC will get a respite in the mature process that contributes the most to revenue; In the field of advanced manufacturing processes, development will be supported and the dividends of the long process node of 14nm will continue to be enjoyed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655da6c9b905daafadf40cdfae6383ca\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This is an important window period.</p><p><b>In terms of performance, SMIC will get orders to support operations</b>。 In 2020Q4, SMIC experienced a decline in gross profit margin, which SMIC admitted was due to \"changes in the international ecology.\"</p><p>SMIC is also bound to take this opportunity to carry out \"breakthrough\" work. Before the change of the U.S. government in December last year, there was news that SMIC and ASML were negotiating on EUV lithography equipment.<b>The pressure caused by this \"chip crisis\" on the U.S. industry will become a bargaining chip for SMIC to further \"break through\".</b></p><p>Of course, the United States still has restrictions on manufacturing processes below 10nm. The market has not expected too much of a further relaxation of \"sanctions\". After all, Biden has no reason to allow SMIC to achieve technological breakthroughs.</p><p>Part of the reason why SMIC failed to master the 7nm process technology was that it could not obtain extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment from ASML, a Dutch lithography manufacturer. Behind this is also the United States-starting in 2018, the Netherlands has held at least four meetings with the United States to discuss whether to supply EUV lithography to Chinese companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f002d8139515fa6676857d61e75d490\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After Biden took office,<b>Although it tried its best to discredit the Trump administration, the political legacy of \"sanctions against China\" was ambiguously accepted</b>, so far there are not many influential statements.</p><p>Will continued sanctions hurt the global industrial chain? That's all Trump's pot!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c913f243d1bf5f2126d3c6565146560c\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>SMIC's \"breakthrough\", where is the road ahead?</b></p><p>For SMIC, the market's depressed sentiment will be eased in the short term, and the valuation will be further repaired. But in the long run, we still have to continue to be under pressure under \"sanctions\".</p><p>Therefore, in order not to be controlled by others, SMIC is also silently trying to catch up with the level of \"top students\".</p><p>In December 2020, Liang Mengsong, a big coffee in the chip industry, submitted a resignation letter to SMIC (although he later appeared in the list of executives), and revealed an important piece of information in the letter:<b>The development of SMIC's 7nm technology has been completed and will immediately enter venture mass production in April next year</b>。 The eight most critical and arduous technologies of 5nm and 3nm have also been launched in an orderly manner. Only after the arrival of EUV lithography, they can enter the comprehensive development stage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c896767e601f175e478e00ca51e35f\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The reason for Liang Mengsong's resignation is said to be related to Jiang Shangyi, the godfather of chips that SMIC just invited back and the veteran of TSMC.</p><p>Jiang Shangyi's return is an important move.</p><p>It is Jiang's father's dream to develop advanced packaging and system integration technology in mainland China.<b>And Jiang Shangyi has a good relationship with ASML. ASML dominates the global lithography market, Jiang Shangyi and others have contributed a lot</b>。</p><p>Jiang's father holds the red thread,<b>SMIC can at least sit down with ASML and have a good talk, or seek other ways to bypass the US \"blockade\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467c977bcf09d36ca11667136d44899d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although, everything has not been confirmed yet.</p><p>Capital naturally seeks advantages and avoids disadvantages. At present, it is unknown whether and how long the \"sanctions\" against SMIC will be relaxed. Only one thing is certain about the capital market:<b>It is even more difficult for the American emperor at the top of the pyramid to give up the cake</b>。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After being stuck for half a year, SMIC finally took a breath</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter being stuck for half a year, SMIC finally took a breath\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-03 08:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The winner of the \"chip crisis\"?<b>“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Obtained the US 14nm license. \"</b></p><p>Yesterday's news stirred up today's market sentiment, and Western media such as CNBC and The Wall Street Journal also reported related news.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34033eeb8e6d504b9b220624b1510de7\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In December last year, the US Department of Commerce will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Included in the \"Entity List\" suppressed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Valuation. The relaxation of \"sanctions\" this time may be related to the current global shortage of chips-the \"seven injuries\" of the US imperialist may have made itself uncomfortable.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>\"Sanctions\" relaxed, in line with expectations</b></p><p><b>The relaxation of \"sanctions\" is basically in line with expectations.</b></p><p>It can be seen from the news that among some suppliers in the United States, Company A has obtained relevant licenses, while Company L and Company K are still waiting for the results. They will also obtain licenses one after another. The licenses take 10nm as the cutoff point, and 14nm and above process-related products have been licensed, but nodes of 10nm and below have not obtained licenses.</p><p>A, L and K respectively refer to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>Applied Materials,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">RAM Study</a>(Lam Research), American business Kelei (KLA).</p><p>Trump, who is known as \"America first\", may not have expected that beating any link in the global industrial chain would have unpredictable effects.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297e3e249ee82777b45b4bd1ee6ace91\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the one hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>In-depth cooperation with some US suppliers, sanctions will directly disrupt the supply chains of these companies</b>。 SMIC's main American suppliers include A, L, and K, while downstream American customers also include Qualcomm and Broadcom.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45a374657acd2b3bfff3bf230d2c8e9f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These companies attach great importance to the Chinese market and maintain good interactive relations with Chinese customers such as SMIC. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>He once actively lobbied the Trump administration for Huawei. It can be speculated that the loosening of this policy was only due to the effective communication between American equipment manufacturers and SMIC.</p><p><b>On the other hand, \"sanctions\" have disrupted the global chip supply chain and caused a backlash to the United States.</b></p><p>Last year, Huawei began to hoard chips in response to US \"sanctions\", occupying<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And the production capacity of fabs such as MediaTek. Later, the production of wafer fabs slowed down due to the epidemic, resulting in a large backlog of orders. However, the orders during the epidemic have not been digested, and the economy has begun to recover again, bringing about an increase in chip demand in consumer electronics, automotive electronics, industrial production and other scenarios.</p><p><b>The \"chip crisis\" quickly spread to U.S. consumer electronics, automobile and other industries, bringing violent shocks</b>。 The revenue that the two major U.S. car companies-General Motors and Ford should have during the year has been lowered by about 1/3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>There are even plans to suspend production at three factories in North America for this purpose. Since the existing chip demand exceeds 30% of the supply capacity, it will take at least 3 to 4 quarters to achieve a balance between supply and demand, which means that the \"chip crisis\" may last until 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8939d25e16c01a64dc1e3f4ce4cab17e\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>American companies can't wait so long. The Biden administration has just taken office,<b>Representatives of several technology companies, auto industry and other business interest groups rushed to send letters to Biden, calling the issue a national priority</b>。</p><p>As a result, Trump acted as a demon and asked Biden to wipe his ass.</p><p>After Biden took office, he immediately signed an executive order targeting the \"chip crisis\" and quickly cooperated with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>A cooperation has been reached. The latter will spend approximately 233.2 billion yuan to build six new 5nm chip factories in Arizona, USA. Construction will start at the beginning of this year and be put into production in 2024.</p><p>But the distant water of 2024 cannot quench the near thirst of 2021.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>The window period of \"breakthrough\"?</b></p><p><b>The loosening of \"sanctions\" this time also exceeded expectations.</b></p><p>The market may not have expected before that the approved license also covers the 14nm process.</p><p>As early as December 31, it was reported that SMIC had obtained a license from the U.S. Department of Commerce for the equipment required for its mature manufacturing process, and would issue 40,000 to 50,000 pieces of equipment for production capacity at one time. In this regard, the previous market expectation was that process equipment above 28nm would be approved one after another.</p><p>SMIC's 14nm is still the most advanced process that can be mass-produced for the time being. The 14nm process has been mass-produced in 2019Q4, and the yield rate has reached the industry's mass production level. At the same time, the second-generation FinFET has entered small-scale trial production.</p><p>The 14nm process was also approved this time, which means that SMIC will get a respite in the mature process that contributes the most to revenue; In the field of advanced manufacturing processes, development will be supported and the dividends of the long process node of 14nm will continue to be enjoyed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655da6c9b905daafadf40cdfae6383ca\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This is an important window period.</p><p><b>In terms of performance, SMIC will get orders to support operations</b>。 In 2020Q4, SMIC experienced a decline in gross profit margin, which SMIC admitted was due to \"changes in the international ecology.\"</p><p>SMIC is also bound to take this opportunity to carry out \"breakthrough\" work. Before the change of the U.S. government in December last year, there was news that SMIC and ASML were negotiating on EUV lithography equipment.<b>The pressure caused by this \"chip crisis\" on the U.S. industry will become a bargaining chip for SMIC to further \"break through\".</b></p><p>Of course, the United States still has restrictions on manufacturing processes below 10nm. The market has not expected too much of a further relaxation of \"sanctions\". After all, Biden has no reason to allow SMIC to achieve technological breakthroughs.</p><p>Part of the reason why SMIC failed to master the 7nm process technology was that it could not obtain extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment from ASML, a Dutch lithography manufacturer. Behind this is also the United States-starting in 2018, the Netherlands has held at least four meetings with the United States to discuss whether to supply EUV lithography to Chinese companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f002d8139515fa6676857d61e75d490\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After Biden took office,<b>Although it tried its best to discredit the Trump administration, the political legacy of \"sanctions against China\" was ambiguously accepted</b>, so far there are not many influential statements.</p><p>Will continued sanctions hurt the global industrial chain? That's all Trump's pot!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c913f243d1bf5f2126d3c6565146560c\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>SMIC's \"breakthrough\", where is the road ahead?</b></p><p>For SMIC, the market's depressed sentiment will be eased in the short term, and the valuation will be further repaired. But in the long run, we still have to continue to be under pressure under \"sanctions\".</p><p>Therefore, in order not to be controlled by others, SMIC is also silently trying to catch up with the level of \"top students\".</p><p>In December 2020, Liang Mengsong, a big coffee in the chip industry, submitted a resignation letter to SMIC (although he later appeared in the list of executives), and revealed an important piece of information in the letter:<b>The development of SMIC's 7nm technology has been completed and will immediately enter venture mass production in April next year</b>。 The eight most critical and arduous technologies of 5nm and 3nm have also been launched in an orderly manner. Only after the arrival of EUV lithography, they can enter the comprehensive development stage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c896767e601f175e478e00ca51e35f\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The reason for Liang Mengsong's resignation is said to be related to Jiang Shangyi, the godfather of chips that SMIC just invited back and the veteran of TSMC.</p><p>Jiang Shangyi's return is an important move.</p><p>It is Jiang's father's dream to develop advanced packaging and system integration technology in mainland China.<b>And Jiang Shangyi has a good relationship with ASML. ASML dominates the global lithography market, Jiang Shangyi and others have contributed a lot</b>。</p><p>Jiang's father holds the red thread,<b>SMIC can at least sit down with ASML and have a good talk, or seek other ways to bypass the US \"blockade\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467c977bcf09d36ca11667136d44899d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although, everything has not been confirmed yet.</p><p>Capital naturally seeks advantages and avoids disadvantages. At present, it is unknown whether and how long the \"sanctions\" against SMIC will be relaxed. Only one thing is certain about the capital market:<b>It is even more difficult for the American emperor at the top of the pyramid to give up the cake</b>。</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb458f2c3eed8796a1e2ecf37309073","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","00981":"中芯国际"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113167033","content_text":"“芯片危机”的赢家？\n\n“中芯国际获美国14nm许可。”\n昨天这则消息，搅动了今天的市场情绪，CNBC、《华尔街时报》等西方媒体也报道了相关新闻。\n\n去年12月，美国商务部将中芯国际列入“实体清单”，压制了中芯国际的估值。而这一次“制裁”放宽，可能与目前全球芯片的短缺有关——美帝的“七伤拳”或已让自己都开始顶不顺。\n01\n“制裁”放宽，符合预期\n此次“制裁”放宽，基本符合预期。\n消息中可以看到，美国部分供应商中A公司已经拿到相关许可证，L公司和K公司还在等待结果，判断后边也会陆续拿到许可证，许可证以10nm为分界点，14nm及以上工艺制程相关产品获得许可，10nm及以下节点未拿到许可证。\nA、L、K分别指代应用材料（Applied Materials）、拉姆研究（Lam Research）、美商科磊（KLA）。\n号称“美国优先”的特朗普也许没想到，敲打全球化产业链的任何一个环节，都会造成难以预料的影响。\n\n一方面，中芯国际与部分美国供应商深入合作，制裁将直接扰乱这些公司的供应链。中芯国际的主要美国供应商就包括A、L、K三家，而下游的美国客户还包括高通和博通。\n\n这些公司重视中国市场，与中芯国际等中国客户也保持着良好的互动关系。此前高通曾经替华为积极游说特朗普政府。可以推测，在美国设备厂家和中芯国际的有效沟通下，才有了此次政策的松动。\n另一方面是“制裁”扰乱了全球芯片供应链，对美国造成反噬。\n去年华为为应对美国“制裁”开始囤积芯片，挤占了台积电和联发科等晶圆厂的产能。后来晶圆厂又因疫情导致生产放缓，大量订单积压。而疫情期间的订单还没消化完，经济又开始复苏，带来消费电子、汽车电子、工业生产等场景下芯片需求提升。\n“芯片危机”迅速传到到美国消费电子、汽车等行业，带来剧烈震荡。美国两大车企——通用、福特年内本应拥有的营收被拉低约1/3，通用汽车甚至计划为此暂停北美三座工厂的生产。由于现有芯片需求超过供应能力的30%，要实现供需平衡，至少需3~4个季度，这意味着“芯片危机”可能持续到2022年。\n\n美国公司等不了这么久了。拜登政府刚上任，多家技术公司、汽车行业和其他商业利益团体的协会代表，就急忙向拜登致信，称该问题为国家优先事项。\n结果特朗普作的妖，还要拜登擦屁股。\n拜登上台后，立即签署了针对“芯片危机”的行政命令，并很快与台积电达成了合作，后者将斥资约2332亿元人民币在美国亚利桑那州新建6座5nm芯片厂，今年初开工，2024年投产。\n可是2024的远水，不解2021的近渴。\n02\n“突围”的窗口期？\n这次“制裁”松绑也有超出预期的部分。\n此前市场可能没想到，获批许可证还涵盖14nm制程。\n早在12月31日就有消息，中芯国际获得美国商务部对其成熟制程所需设备的许可证，并将一次性发放4万~5万片产能所用的设备。对此，此前市场的预期是：28nm以上制程设备将陆续获批。\n中芯国际的14nm暂时还属于可量产的最先进制程。14nm工艺已在2019Q4量产，良品率达业界量产水准，同时第二代FinFET已进入小量试产。\n这次14nm制程也获通过，意味着中芯国际在营收贡献最大的成熟制程上将获喘息机会；在先进制程领域，发展将得到支持，持续享受14nm这个长工艺节点的红利。\n\n这是一个重要的窗口期。\n在业绩上，中芯国际将获得订单以支持运转。2020Q4中芯国际就出现了毛利率下降的情况，中芯国际承认是由于“国际生态的变动”所致。\n中芯国际也势必借此开展“突围”工作。去年12月美国政府换届前，就有消息曝出中芯国际与ASML就EUV光刻机设备谈判的消息。这次“芯片危机”对美国产业造成的压力，将成为中芯国际进一步“突围”的筹码。\n当然，美国方面对10nm以下的制程依然限制。市场对“制裁”进一步放宽也未抱过分期待，毕竟拜登不存在允许中芯国际取得技术突破的理由。\n中芯国际之所以未能掌握7nm制程工艺，部分原因在于不能获得荷兰光刻机大厂ASML的极紫外（EUV）光刻机设备。这背后也是美国——2018年开始，荷兰至少与美国展开4此会议，讨论是否向中国企业供应EUV光刻机。\n\n拜登上台后，虽然极力抹黑特朗普政府，但“对华制裁”这一政治遗产却是暧昧不明地接受了，截至目前没有太多有影响力的表态。\n继续制裁会伤害全球产业链？那可都是特朗普的锅！\n\n03\n中芯“突围”，前路何在？\n对于中芯国际而言，市场的压抑情绪将短期得到缓解，估值进一步修复。可长期来看，还是要在“制裁”之下继续承压。\n所以为了不受制于人，中芯国际也在默默努力追赶“尖子生”的水平。\n2020年12月，芯片界大咖梁孟松给中芯国际递交了一封辞职信（虽然后来他又出现在高管名单中），并在信中透露了一项重要信息：中芯国际7nm技术的开发已经完成，明年四月就可以马上进入风险量产。5nm和3nm最关键、也是最艰巨的8大项技术也已经有序展开，只待EUV光刻机的到来，就可以进入全面开发阶段。\n\n梁孟松辞职的原因，据说与中芯国际刚请回来的芯片教父级人物、台积电开朝元老蒋尚义有关。\n蒋尚义的回归是重要的一步棋。\n在大陆发展先进封装和系统整合技术，是蒋爸的梦想。而蒋尚义与ASML交好。ASML称霸全球光刻机市场，蒋尚义等人功不可没。\n有蒋爸牵红线，中芯至少可与ASML坐下来好好谈，或是寻求其他方式绕开美国“封锁”。\n\n尽管，一切还没有实锤。\n资本自然是趋利避害的。目前对中芯国际“制裁”会不会放宽、能放宽多久尚不可知。唯有一点对资本市场确定的：金字塔顶端的美帝，要让出蛋糕是难上加难。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":0.9,"00981":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363891535,"gmtCreate":1614122846927,"gmtModify":1704888348068,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!!!","listText":"Great!!!","text":"Great!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363891535","repostId":"2113332312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2113332312","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"6","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200"},"pubTimestamp":1614096346,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2113332312?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-24 00:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Just now, the US stock market was in shock! Federal Reserve Chairman Speaks: Easing Continues! The big reversal is coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2113332312","media":"中国基金报","summary":"全球的资本市场血流成河啊！白天A股抱团股跌，晚上比特币也闪崩，美股开盘后，外国的抱团科技股也崩了！纳斯达克一度暴跌了近4%！不过惊魂时刻很快过去，美联储主席在盘中紧急发话，表示宽松政策将继续，美股纷纷","content":"<p><div>The global capital market is bloodshed! During the day, A-share Baotuan stocks fell, and Bitcoin also crashed at night. After the US stock market opened, foreign Baotuan technology stocks also collapsed! The Nasdaq once plummeted nearly 4%! However, the shocking moment passed quickly. The chairman of the Federal Reserve made an emergency statement during the session, saying that the easing policy would continue, and U.S. stocks began to rebound! What exactly happened? The U.S. stock market once crashed. On the evening of the 23rd, after the U.S. stock market opened, technology stocks and Chinese concept stocks all plummeted. If you look at the Dow Jones index alone, it only fell by more than 200 points, or less than 1%, which seems to be nothing. But look at the Nasdaq, where technology stocks gather together, and it collapsed by nearly 4% directly...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Just now, the US stock market was in shock! Federal Reserve Chairman Speaks: Easing Continues! The big reversal is coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust now, the US stock market was in shock! Federal Reserve Chairman Speaks: Easing Continues! The big reversal is coming\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/6\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中国基金报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-24 00:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The global capital market is bloodshed! During the day, A-share Baotuan stocks fell, and Bitcoin also crashed at night. After the US stock market opened, foreign Baotuan technology stocks also collapsed! The Nasdaq once plummeted nearly 4%! However, the shocking moment passed quickly. The chairman of the Federal Reserve made an emergency statement during the session, saying that the easing policy would continue, and U.S. stocks began to rebound! What exactly happened? The U.S. stock market once crashed. On the evening of the 23rd, after the U.S. stock market opened, technology stocks and Chinese concept stocks all plummeted. If you look at the Dow Jones index alone, it only fell by more than 200 points, or less than 1%, which seems to be nothing. But look at the Nasdaq, where technology stocks gather together, and it collapsed by nearly 4% directly...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TSLA":"特斯拉","03086":"华夏纳指"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2113332312","content_text":"全球的资本市场血流成河啊！白天A股抱团股跌，晚上比特币也闪崩，美股开盘后，外国的抱团科技股也崩了！纳斯达克一度暴跌了近4%！不过惊魂时刻很快过去，美联储主席在盘中紧急发话，表示宽松政策将继续，美股纷纷开启反弹！究竟发生了什么？美股一度崩盘23日晚间，美股开盘后，科技股、中概股齐齐暴跌，如果单看道琼斯指数，只跌了200多点，跌幅还不到1%，似乎不算什么。但是看看科技股扎堆的纳斯达克，直接就崩了近4%！再看看具体个股，苹果跌了5%，特斯拉跌了12%，市值跌破6000亿美元，已经抹平今年全部涨幅！大型科技股全线下跌，亚马逊、谷歌、奈飞都跌了2%。另外，中概股也全线暴跌！拼多多跌7%，百度跌10%、阿里跌4.5%、B站跌近10%。国内新能源车三剑客，蔚来、理想跌近15%，小鹏汽车跌去了10%！！为什么会出现这一幕？分析认为，市场风向转到了美联储在未来加息概率的抬头。随着美国经济的复苏，为防止未来通胀增长过快，美国美联储势必会开始考虑减少刺激、收紧市场流动性。现在越来越多的机构加入了预期将来会加息的阵营。美联储此前为应对疫情的无限量QE，已经消耗了大部分的货币政策操作空间，截至目前美联储已将基金利率降至0.25%的极低水平，且明确表示不会出现负利率。那么无论经济是否复苏，在利率工具上都只存在加息一个选项了。在联邦基金利率期货市场上，押注美联储最快将在2022年年底加息的概率已经高达70%，这一概率上周还是50%。至于2023年3月加息，几乎是交易员们眼中板上钉钉的事。美联储主席鲍威尔紧急护盘美股跌幅收窄就在美股一副股灾的样子的时候，美联储主席鲍威尔发话了。这两天，美联储主席鲍威尔从美东时间周二上午10点开始为期两天的国会作证。投资者期待听到鲍威尔对债券收益率和通货膨胀预期上升的评论。23日晚间，鲍威尔表示，美联储不会仅仅为了应对强劲的劳动力市场而收紧货币政策。距离实现目标还有很长的路，进一步取得进展需要一段时间。复苏远远没有实现，未来的路(仍然)高度不确定。形势表明，前景将在2021年稍晚得到改善。鲍威尔称，在夏季经济反弹之后，经济增长势头大幅放缓；如果债券购买速度有任何变化，美联储会提早很多来明确传达信息；宽松货币政策将继续存在。鲍威尔表示，恐慌性经济给通货膨胀留下了“重大影响”；对于受恐慌性经济影响最大的行业，消费价格尤其疲软。许多行业的就业市场因餐饮业、酒店业等行业的巨大损失受到显著影响。目前，通货膨胀率仍低于2%的长期目标。在鲍威尔讲话之际，美股三大指数短线回升，回到了那副舞照跳马照跑的景象。Swissquote高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya说，鲍威尔“将为投资者带来成功或破灭的一天。”大家直接看图吧。近日，全球最大对冲基金公司桥水创始人达利欧在公司网站发文，介绍了他们创建的“泡沫指标”，并发出警告称，虽然美股整体目前还难言泡沫，但是“新兴科技股票”，即投资者，尤其是散户投资者当下的宠儿，现在已经进入了“极端泡沫区间”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"03086":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}