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Elio wong

Elio wong

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2022-11-18

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@首席消费官:蘇泊爾：回購股份最高價調整爲56.03元/股

2022-01-21

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2021-12-30

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Outlook for liquor in 2022: Will it be extremely prosperous and usher in glory again?

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A-share market, the liquor track is the favorite of many investors. Looking back from the present, whether it is long-term returns or short-term market conditions, the liquor track is excellent: looking at long-term returns, in the 13 years from the end of 2008 to the end of 2021, the annualized increase of the CSI Liquor Index is as high as 26%; Looking at short-term returns, since the low point in 2018 (20211224), the Shenwan Liquor Index has increased by 452%.</p><p>But looking back on 2021, liquor has disappointed many investors, especially those who bought at a high point before the Spring Festival, and are still in a state of losing money. So, after a year of adjustment, will liquor be better in 2022?</p><p><b>Inventory of sector market conditions in 2021</b></p><p>From the beginning of the year to December 24, the CSI Liquor Index rose by 1.47% cumulatively, which was not ideal. It underperformed time deposits and the market. During the same period, the Wind All A Index rose by 7.8%. Specifically, small and medium-cap stocks performed well, the ChiNext Index rose by 11.15%, and the CSI 500 rose by 14.32%; Large-cap stocks performed slightly worse, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.17% and the CSI 300 falling 5.56% during the same period.</p><p>Considering that many liquor investors got on the bus at a high point on the eve of the Spring Festival last year, the shareholding experience throughout the year was even worse, and they are still in a state of losing money.</p><p>From the perspective of individual stocks, the performance of liquor throughout the year is obviously differentiated. As of December 24, 2021, among the 19 A-share liquor listed companies, Shede Liquor Industry has the best increase, reaching 181%, and Yingjia Gongjiu has also increased by 120%; Shunxin Agriculture performed the worst, falling 47.3% throughout the year, almost cut in half, and Yanghe shares fell 24.9%, which did not perform well. As far as the three companies in the high-end liquor track are concerned, Moutai rose 10.85%, Luzhou Old Cellar rose 16.85%, and Wuliangye fell 16.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8905b57e728a5f24e594354fe534616\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On the same track, individual stocks vary greatly, because once it comes to the level of individual stocks, the influence of industry logic will take a back seat in the short term, and stock price changes are more affected by individual stock valuation, short-term performance, market catalytic factors, market sentiment, outlook and other comprehensive effects, losing predictability. In this sense, for most investors, if they are optimistic about the liquor sector, liquor index funds are still a better choice.</p><p><b>Medium-and long-term perspective: The prospect of mid-to-high-end liquor is good</b></p><p>Industry investment should focus on medium and long-term layout and look for trading opportunities based on short-term market fluctuations. Therefore, in order to find layout opportunities in 2022, we need to first grasp the medium and long-term development prospects of the industry.</p><p>In the past few years, as the total consumption of liquor continued to shrink, there was a widely circulated logic of looking down on liquor in the market, that is, young people no longer drink liquor, so the liquor industry has no future. Because the time is not long enough, it cannot be said that this logic has been falsified by facts, but with the recovery of the high-end liquor market, few people mention it again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e9222663f41c47082b3b673a5d7db5\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So, \"Young people rarely drink liquor, so the liquor industry has no future.\" What is the problem with this logic? The problem is that young people rarely drink liquor, which doesn't mean that young people don't drink liquor after becoming middle-aged.</p><p>From the classification of alcoholic beverages, the core group of beer is young people, representing vitality and youth; The core crowd of liquor is middle-aged and elderly people, which corresponds to the emotional release of \"singing about wine and the geometry of life\" and the social entertainment of \"when you will drink wine, don't stop drinking\". Many times, if you are less than a certain age, you can't feel the spicy, sweet and bitter taste of life, and there is no demand for liquor.</p><p>Therefore, liquor consumption is emotionally driven and emotionally driven, and mixed with the long-standing cultural tradition, which has already penetrated into everyone's blood. At a certain age and after a certain point in time, this emotional demand will be activated. Therefore, it is not a tragedy of the liquor industry for young people not to drink liquor. Young people will grow old.</p><p>In addition, due to the cancer caused by alcohol and the harm caused by drinking, it is the general trend that the total consumption of liquor will go downhill. In this context,<b>\"Drink less and drink good wine\" has become the medium-term logic that dominates the prospects of the industry. A large number of low-end liquor factories have been forced to close down. High-end and sub-high-end liquor have taken advantage of the trend. Industry concentration has increased rapidly, and leading liquor companies have remained strong.</b>In fact, since 2016, the total revenue of 19 listed liquor companies has maintained a relatively high growth rate. Except for 2020, which was affected by the epidemic, the growth rates in other years have been above double digits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409af137516de763e8c7ad86b915a801\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In this context, the fundamentals of head wine companies are likely to continue to stabilize and improve, while the development prospects of waist and tail companies are increasingly uncertain. Embracing the leader has become the mainstream liquor investment strategy at this stage.</p><p><b>Short-Term Perspective: Stable Fundamentals, Slightly High Valuations</b></p><p>From a short-term perspective, we should pay attention to two factors: one is short-term performance, and the other is valuation level.</p><p>Short-term performance fluctuations depend on the structural balance of supply and demand. Short-term changes on the supply side are limited, so the demand side often becomes the main traction force for short-term performance fluctuations. As far as mid-to high-end liquor is concerned, the main consumption scenarios are business banquets and festival social networking. The former depends on the prosperity of economic activities, while the latter is closely related to residents' income level.</p><p>In the first three quarters of 2021, the total revenue of 19 listed liquor companies was 230.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.42%; Achieved a net profit of 85.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. It should be said that the fundamental performance in 2021 is good. As far as 2022 is concerned, the biggest uncertainty still lies in whether the COVID-19 pandemic can be effectively controlled. Judging from the current situation, as long as there are no major accidents, the marginal impact of the epidemic will weaken day by day, and the demand side of liquor will continue the trend of consumption upgrading, which will provide strong support for mid-to-high-end liquor.</p><p>From the perspective of valuation level, currently, the P/E of the CSI Liquor Index is about 48 times, all A-shares are 20 times, and the CSI 300 is 14.25 times. Therefore, compared horizontally among various A-share sectors, the valuation of the liquor sector is still at a relatively high position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53743691d602e80a1ba164645551a270\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From a vertical perspective, since 2015, the quantile values of the P/E, price-to-book ratio, and price-to-sales ratio of the CSI Liquor Index have all been above 90%, that is, in all trading days in the past six years, the current valuation level is at 90% high. It can also be seen from the increase of the index. Since the end of 2008, the annualized increase of CSI Liquor Index has been 26%, while the annualized increase in the past three years has been as high as 64%. It also shows that the increase of liquor in the past three years is higher than the historical average level. According to the principle of mean reversion, the future increase will most likely be lower than the average level</p><p>Therefore, if we look at the factors of fundamentals and valuation comprehensively, due to the support of fundamentals, the downward space is limited, and liquor investment is still safe; But at the same time, since the valuation is at a historically high level, the upward space is also limited, so there is no need to expect too high returns.</p><p><b>2022 Outlook</b></p><p>Most investors agree that short-term market movements are unpredictable. In fact, it's not that it can't be predicted, or even accurately predicted, but that it's impossible to continuously make predictions that are basically consistent with the facts. In fact, almost all investors are predicting the market, and many investors have accurately predicted market changes at many points in time. The problem is that no one can continuously make accurate predictions.</p><p>Each prediction corresponds to a probability, although the deeper the fundamental research, the higher the probability of correct prediction. But probability is only a possibility after all. For a single event that cannot be repeated, even a high probability and accurate prediction is often inconsistent with the actual trend. As a result, short-term market forecasts are tantamount to rolling dice.</p><p><b>Therefore, for investors, if they want to benefit from market outlook and forecast, they must first disenchant the forecast itself to avoid the negativity of the forecast. The value of a prediction lies not in its outcome, but more in its process and logic.</b>As long as the logic is correct, this logic can realize itself with a high probability in a long period of time. Of course, the specific time point of realization is uncertain, which leads to the uncertainty of the prediction result. It is in this sense that the prediction process is valuable, but the prediction results are usually not referential.</p><p>Back to the liquor track, it doesn't matter whether it will rise or fall in 2022, because no one can give a definite conclusion beforehand. For investors, it is enough to focus on three points: First, the medium and long-term prospects of high-end and sub-high-end liquor are still good; Second, from the perspective of short-term fundamentals, the probability of marginal improvement on the demand side is greater, which supports the prosperity of the industry; Third, the current sector valuation is still at a relatively high position.</p><p>By paying attention to this information, investors can make their own investment decisions based on their own investment system. As for the result, they will only know after the result occurs. In the world of investing, there is never 100% certainty.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Outlook for liquor in 2022: Will it be extremely prosperous and usher in glory again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOutlook for liquor in 2022: Will it be extremely prosperous and usher in glory again?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">苏宁金融研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 10:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In the A-share market, the liquor track is the favorite of many investors. Looking back from the present, whether it is long-term returns or short-term market conditions, the liquor track is excellent: looking at long-term returns, in the 13 years from the end of 2008 to the end of 2021, the annualized increase of the CSI Liquor Index is as high as 26%; Looking at short-term returns, since the low point in 2018 (20211224), the Shenwan Liquor Index has increased by 452%.</p><p>But looking back on 2021, liquor has disappointed many investors, especially those who bought at a high point before the Spring Festival, and are still in a state of losing money. So, after a year of adjustment, will liquor be better in 2022?</p><p><b>Inventory of sector market conditions in 2021</b></p><p>From the beginning of the year to December 24, the CSI Liquor Index rose by 1.47% cumulatively, which was not ideal. It underperformed time deposits and the market. During the same period, the Wind All A Index rose by 7.8%. Specifically, small and medium-cap stocks performed well, the ChiNext Index rose by 11.15%, and the CSI 500 rose by 14.32%; Large-cap stocks performed slightly worse, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.17% and the CSI 300 falling 5.56% during the same period.</p><p>Considering that many liquor investors got on the bus at a high point on the eve of the Spring Festival last year, the shareholding experience throughout the year was even worse, and they are still in a state of losing money.</p><p>From the perspective of individual stocks, the performance of liquor throughout the year is obviously differentiated. As of December 24, 2021, among the 19 A-share liquor listed companies, Shede Liquor Industry has the best increase, reaching 181%, and Yingjia Gongjiu has also increased by 120%; Shunxin Agriculture performed the worst, falling 47.3% throughout the year, almost cut in half, and Yanghe shares fell 24.9%, which did not perform well. As far as the three companies in the high-end liquor track are concerned, Moutai rose 10.85%, Luzhou Old Cellar rose 16.85%, and Wuliangye fell 16.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8905b57e728a5f24e594354fe534616\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On the same track, individual stocks vary greatly, because once it comes to the level of individual stocks, the influence of industry logic will take a back seat in the short term, and stock price changes are more affected by individual stock valuation, short-term performance, market catalytic factors, market sentiment, outlook and other comprehensive effects, losing predictability. In this sense, for most investors, if they are optimistic about the liquor sector, liquor index funds are still a better choice.</p><p><b>Medium-and long-term perspective: The prospect of mid-to-high-end liquor is good</b></p><p>Industry investment should focus on medium and long-term layout and look for trading opportunities based on short-term market fluctuations. Therefore, in order to find layout opportunities in 2022, we need to first grasp the medium and long-term development prospects of the industry.</p><p>In the past few years, as the total consumption of liquor continued to shrink, there was a widely circulated logic of looking down on liquor in the market, that is, young people no longer drink liquor, so the liquor industry has no future. Because the time is not long enough, it cannot be said that this logic has been falsified by facts, but with the recovery of the high-end liquor market, few people mention it again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e9222663f41c47082b3b673a5d7db5\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So, \"Young people rarely drink liquor, so the liquor industry has no future.\" What is the problem with this logic? The problem is that young people rarely drink liquor, which doesn't mean that young people don't drink liquor after becoming middle-aged.</p><p>From the classification of alcoholic beverages, the core group of beer is young people, representing vitality and youth; The core crowd of liquor is middle-aged and elderly people, which corresponds to the emotional release of \"singing about wine and the geometry of life\" and the social entertainment of \"when you will drink wine, don't stop drinking\". Many times, if you are less than a certain age, you can't feel the spicy, sweet and bitter taste of life, and there is no demand for liquor.</p><p>Therefore, liquor consumption is emotionally driven and emotionally driven, and mixed with the long-standing cultural tradition, which has already penetrated into everyone's blood. At a certain age and after a certain point in time, this emotional demand will be activated. Therefore, it is not a tragedy of the liquor industry for young people not to drink liquor. Young people will grow old.</p><p>In addition, due to the cancer caused by alcohol and the harm caused by drinking, it is the general trend that the total consumption of liquor will go downhill. In this context,<b>\"Drink less and drink good wine\" has become the medium-term logic that dominates the prospects of the industry. A large number of low-end liquor factories have been forced to close down. High-end and sub-high-end liquor have taken advantage of the trend. Industry concentration has increased rapidly, and leading liquor companies have remained strong.</b>In fact, since 2016, the total revenue of 19 listed liquor companies has maintained a relatively high growth rate. Except for 2020, which was affected by the epidemic, the growth rates in other years have been above double digits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409af137516de763e8c7ad86b915a801\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In this context, the fundamentals of head wine companies are likely to continue to stabilize and improve, while the development prospects of waist and tail companies are increasingly uncertain. Embracing the leader has become the mainstream liquor investment strategy at this stage.</p><p><b>Short-Term Perspective: Stable Fundamentals, Slightly High Valuations</b></p><p>From a short-term perspective, we should pay attention to two factors: one is short-term performance, and the other is valuation level.</p><p>Short-term performance fluctuations depend on the structural balance of supply and demand. Short-term changes on the supply side are limited, so the demand side often becomes the main traction force for short-term performance fluctuations. As far as mid-to high-end liquor is concerned, the main consumption scenarios are business banquets and festival social networking. The former depends on the prosperity of economic activities, while the latter is closely related to residents' income level.</p><p>In the first three quarters of 2021, the total revenue of 19 listed liquor companies was 230.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.42%; Achieved a net profit of 85.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. It should be said that the fundamental performance in 2021 is good. As far as 2022 is concerned, the biggest uncertainty still lies in whether the COVID-19 pandemic can be effectively controlled. Judging from the current situation, as long as there are no major accidents, the marginal impact of the epidemic will weaken day by day, and the demand side of liquor will continue the trend of consumption upgrading, which will provide strong support for mid-to-high-end liquor.</p><p>From the perspective of valuation level, currently, the P/E of the CSI Liquor Index is about 48 times, all A-shares are 20 times, and the CSI 300 is 14.25 times. Therefore, compared horizontally among various A-share sectors, the valuation of the liquor sector is still at a relatively high position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53743691d602e80a1ba164645551a270\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From a vertical perspective, since 2015, the quantile values of the P/E, price-to-book ratio, and price-to-sales ratio of the CSI Liquor Index have all been above 90%, that is, in all trading days in the past six years, the current valuation level is at 90% high. It can also be seen from the increase of the index. Since the end of 2008, the annualized increase of CSI Liquor Index has been 26%, while the annualized increase in the past three years has been as high as 64%. It also shows that the increase of liquor in the past three years is higher than the historical average level. According to the principle of mean reversion, the future increase will most likely be lower than the average level</p><p>Therefore, if we look at the factors of fundamentals and valuation comprehensively, due to the support of fundamentals, the downward space is limited, and liquor investment is still safe; But at the same time, since the valuation is at a historically high level, the upward space is also limited, so there is no need to expect too high returns.</p><p><b>2022 Outlook</b></p><p>Most investors agree that short-term market movements are unpredictable. In fact, it's not that it can't be predicted, or even accurately predicted, but that it's impossible to continuously make predictions that are basically consistent with the facts. In fact, almost all investors are predicting the market, and many investors have accurately predicted market changes at many points in time. The problem is that no one can continuously make accurate predictions.</p><p>Each prediction corresponds to a probability, although the deeper the fundamental research, the higher the probability of correct prediction. But probability is only a possibility after all. For a single event that cannot be repeated, even a high probability and accurate prediction is often inconsistent with the actual trend. As a result, short-term market forecasts are tantamount to rolling dice.</p><p><b>Therefore, for investors, if they want to benefit from market outlook and forecast, they must first disenchant the forecast itself to avoid the negativity of the forecast. The value of a prediction lies not in its outcome, but more in its process and logic.</b>As long as the logic is correct, this logic can realize itself with a high probability in a long period of time. Of course, the specific time point of realization is uncertain, which leads to the uncertainty of the prediction result. It is in this sense that the prediction process is valuable, but the prediction results are usually not referential.</p><p>Back to the liquor track, it doesn't matter whether it will rise or fall in 2022, because no one can give a definite conclusion beforehand. For investors, it is enough to focus on three points: First, the medium and long-term prospects of high-end and sub-high-end liquor are still good; Second, from the perspective of short-term fundamentals, the probability of marginal improvement on the demand side is greater, which supports the prosperity of the industry; Third, the current sector valuation is still at a relatively high position.</p><p>By paying attention to this information, investors can make their own investment decisions based on their own investment system. As for the result, they will only know after the result occurs. In the world of investing, there is never 100% certainty.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwOTc2MDg0Ng==&mid=2651011137&idx=1&sn=70575bf594b8a7c3d38bf478e7b9549e&chksm=80ad2160b7daa876b2a21f4422675569d1226de6bb2459e82756d19a777b4496922f3a787a86&scene=27#wechat_redirect\">苏宁金融研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028f21b9e1187158e59b0f369bd94af2","relate_stocks":{"600702":"舍得酒业"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwOTc2MDg0Ng==&mid=2651011137&idx=1&sn=70575bf594b8a7c3d38bf478e7b9549e&chksm=80ad2160b7daa876b2a21f4422675569d1226de6bb2459e82756d19a777b4496922f3a787a86&scene=27#wechat_redirect","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186189945","content_text":"在A股市场，白酒赛道是很多投资者的心头好。站在当下向前回溯，无论是长期收益还是短期行情，白酒赛道都堪称优秀：看长期收益，2008年末-2021年末的13年间，中证白酒指数年化涨幅高达26%；看短期收益，自2018年低点至今（20211224），申万白酒指数涨幅达452%。但回顾2021年，白酒让很多投资者大失所望，尤其是春节前高点买入的投资者，仍处于亏钱状态。那么，经过了一年的调整，2022年的白酒会更好吗？2021年板块行情盘点从年初至12月24日，中证白酒指数累计上涨1.47%，并不理想，跑输了定期存款，也跑输了市场大盘。同期，万得全A指数上涨7.8%，具体来看，中小盘股票表现良好，创业板指上涨11.15%，中证500上涨14.32%；大盘股表现略差，上证指数上涨4.17%，沪深300同期下跌5.56%。考虑到不少白酒投资者于去年春节前夕的高点上车，全年的持股体验更差，当前仍处于亏钱状态。从个股来看，白酒的全年表现分化很明显。截止2021年12月24日，19家A股白酒上市公司，舍得酒业涨幅最好，高达181%，迎驾贡酒涨幅也达到120%；顺鑫农业表现最差，全年下跌47.3%，几乎腰斩，洋河股份下跌24.9%，表现也不好。就高端白酒赛道中的三家公司来看，茅台上涨10.85%，泸州老窖上涨16.85%，五粮液下跌16.3%。同一个赛道，个股差异很大，因为一旦涉及到个股层面，行业逻辑的影响在短期内会退居次位，股价变动更多地受个股估值、短期业绩、行情催化因素、市场情绪、前景展望等综合影响，失去了可预测性。在这个意义上，对多数投资者而言，如果看好白酒板块，白酒指数基金仍是更好的选择。中长期视角：中高端白酒前景向好行业投资应着眼于中长期布局，并基于短期市场波动寻找交易时机。所以，要寻找2022年的布局机会，需要先把握行业中长期的发展前景。前几年，随着白酒消费总量的持续缩水，市场中曾有个看衰白酒的逻辑广为流传，即年轻人不喝白酒了，所以白酒产业没有未来。因为时间还不够长，所以还不能说这个逻辑被事实证伪，只不过随着高端白酒市场的回暖，少有人再提而已。那么，“年轻人很少喝白酒了，所以白酒产业没有未来”，这个逻辑的问题出在哪里呢？问题在于，年轻人很少喝白酒，并不意味着年轻人变成中年人后不喝白酒。从酒精饮料的分类看，啤酒的核心人群是年轻人，代表的是活力和青春；白酒的核心人群是中老年人，对应的是“对酒当歌、人生几何”的情绪释放和“将进酒，杯莫停”的社交应酬。很多时候，不到一定的年龄，体会不到生活的辛辣甜苦，对白酒是没有需求的。所以，白酒消费，背后是情感驱动和情绪驱动，并与悠久的文化传统夹杂在一块，早已渗透到每个人的血液之中，到了一定年纪、过了某个时点，这种情感需求自会被激活。因此，年轻人不喝白酒，并非白酒行业的悲歌，年轻人是会变老的。此外，受酒精致癌、喝酒伤身等影响，白酒消费总量走下坡路是大势所趋。在此背景下，“少喝酒、喝好酒”成为主导行业前景的中期逻辑，大量低端白酒厂关门倒逼，高端、次高端白酒顺势而起，行业集中度快速提升，龙头酒企强者恒强。事实上，2016年以来，19家上市白酒公司营收总额仍保持着较高的增速，除2020年受疫情因素影响外，其他年份增速均在两位数以上。在此背景下，头部酒企的基本面大概率继续稳中向好，而腰部、尾部企业的发展前景不确定增大。拥抱龙头，成为现阶段主流的白酒投资策略。短期视角：基本面稳定，估值略高就短期视角来看，要关注两个因素：一是短期业绩，二是估值水平。短期业绩波动，取决于供需的结构平衡。供给侧短期变动有限，故需求侧往往成为短期业绩波动的主要牵引力量。就中高端白酒而言，主要消费场景是商务宴请和节日社交，前者取决于经济活动的繁荣度，后者与居民收入水平息息相关。2021年前三季度，19家上市白酒企业总营收2309亿元，同比增长19.42%；实现净利润858亿元，同比增长19.5%。应该讲，2021年的基本面表现是不错的，就2022年来看，最大的不确定性因素仍在于新冠疫情能否得到有效控制。结合目前局势来看，只要不出现大的意外，疫情的边际影响会日趋减弱，白酒需求侧继续延续消费升级的趋势，对中高端白酒构成有力支撑。从估值水平来看，当前，中证白酒指数的市盈率在48倍左右，全部A股是20倍，沪深300是14.25倍。所以，在A股各个板块中横向对比，白酒板块的估值仍处于相对较高的位置。纵向来看，2015年以来，中证白酒指数的市盈率、市净率、市销率的分位值都在90%以上，也就是近6年来的所有交易日中，当前的估值水平处于90%的高位。从指数的涨幅也能看出来。自2008年底以来，中证白酒指数的年化涨幅是26%，而近三年的年化涨幅则高达64%。也说明，最近三年白酒的涨幅高于历史平均水平，按照均值回归原理，未来的涨幅大概率将低于平均水平所以，如果结合基本面和估值的因素综合来看，由于基本面的支撑，向下的空间有限，白酒投资依旧安全；但同时由于估值处于历史高位，向上的空间也有限，不必期待太高的收益。2022年前景展望多数投资者都认可这样一个共识，即短期市场变动不可预测。其实，不是不可以预测，甚至也不是不能准确预测，而是不能连续做出与事实基本相符的预测。事实上，几乎所有的投资者都在预测市场，也有不少投资者在不少时点准确预测了市场变动，问题在于，没有人能够持续做出准确预测。每一种预测对应的都是一个概率，虽然基本面研究越深入，正确预测的概率越高。但概率毕竟只是一种可能性，就不能重复进行的单一事件来说，既便是大概率准确的预测，往往也与现实走势不符。从结果上看，短期市场的预测就无异于掷骰子。所以，对投资者而言，要想从市场展望和预测中受益，就必须先对预测本身去魅，以避免预测的负面性。预测的价值不在于其结果，更多地在于过程和逻辑。只要逻辑是正确的，在一个较长的时期内，这种逻辑大概率就能自我实现，当然，具体哪个时点实现具有不确定性，这就造成了预测结果的不确定性。正是在这个意义上，预测过程有价值，预测结果却通常不具有可参考性。回到白酒赛道，2022年是涨是跌并不重要，因为没人能事前给出确定性结论。对投资者而言，主要关注到三个点就够了：一是高端、次高端白酒中长期前景依旧向好；二是短期基本面来看，需求侧边际好转的概率更大，对行业景气度形成支撑；三是当前板块估值仍处于相对较高的位置。关注到这些信息，投资者便可基于自身的投资体系自行做出投资决策，至于结果如何，只有等结果发生后才知道。投资的世界里，从来没有100%的确定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600702":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9003903189,"gmtCreate":1640835024041,"gmtModify":1676533546522,"author":{"id":"3564764075723095","authorId":"3564764075723095","name":"Elio wong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ba146db8355a27c50dcb12de7c4cc8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564764075723095","authorIdStr":"3564764075723095"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003903189","repostId":"1186189945","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186189945","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640833036,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186189945?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-30 10:57","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Outlook for liquor in 2022: Will it be extremely prosperous and usher in glory again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186189945","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"在A股市场，白酒赛道是很多投资者的心头好。站在当下向前回溯，无论是长期收益还是短期行情，白酒赛道都堪称优秀：看长期收益，2008年末-2021年末的13年间，中证白酒指数年化涨幅高达26%；看短期收益","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In the A-share market, the liquor track is the favorite of many investors. Looking back from the present, whether it is long-term returns or short-term market conditions, the liquor track is excellent: looking at long-term returns, in the 13 years from the end of 2008 to the end of 2021, the annualized increase of the CSI Liquor Index is as high as 26%; Looking at short-term returns, since the low point in 2018 (20211224), the Shenwan Liquor Index has increased by 452%.</p><p>But looking back on 2021, liquor has disappointed many investors, especially those who bought at a high point before the Spring Festival, and are still in a state of losing money. So, after a year of adjustment, will liquor be better in 2022?</p><p><b>Inventory of sector market conditions in 2021</b></p><p>From the beginning of the year to December 24, the CSI Liquor Index rose by 1.47% cumulatively, which was not ideal. It underperformed time deposits and the market. During the same period, the Wind All A Index rose by 7.8%. Specifically, small and medium-cap stocks performed well, the ChiNext Index rose by 11.15%, and the CSI 500 rose by 14.32%; Large-cap stocks performed slightly worse, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.17% and the CSI 300 falling 5.56% during the same period.</p><p>Considering that many liquor investors got on the bus at a high point on the eve of the Spring Festival last year, the shareholding experience throughout the year was even worse, and they are still in a state of losing money.</p><p>From the perspective of individual stocks, the performance of liquor throughout the year is obviously differentiated. As of December 24, 2021, among the 19 A-share liquor listed companies, Shede Liquor Industry has the best increase, reaching 181%, and Yingjia Gongjiu has also increased by 120%; Shunxin Agriculture performed the worst, falling 47.3% throughout the year, almost cut in half, and Yanghe shares fell 24.9%, which did not perform well. As far as the three companies in the high-end liquor track are concerned, Moutai rose 10.85%, Luzhou Old Cellar rose 16.85%, and Wuliangye fell 16.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8905b57e728a5f24e594354fe534616\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On the same track, individual stocks vary greatly, because once it comes to the level of individual stocks, the influence of industry logic will take a back seat in the short term, and stock price changes are more affected by individual stock valuation, short-term performance, market catalytic factors, market sentiment, outlook and other comprehensive effects, losing predictability. In this sense, for most investors, if they are optimistic about the liquor sector, liquor index funds are still a better choice.</p><p><b>Medium-and long-term perspective: The prospect of mid-to-high-end liquor is good</b></p><p>Industry investment should focus on medium and long-term layout and look for trading opportunities based on short-term market fluctuations. Therefore, in order to find layout opportunities in 2022, we need to first grasp the medium and long-term development prospects of the industry.</p><p>In the past few years, as the total consumption of liquor continued to shrink, there was a widely circulated logic of looking down on liquor in the market, that is, young people no longer drink liquor, so the liquor industry has no future. Because the time is not long enough, it cannot be said that this logic has been falsified by facts, but with the recovery of the high-end liquor market, few people mention it again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e9222663f41c47082b3b673a5d7db5\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So, \"Young people rarely drink liquor, so the liquor industry has no future.\" What is the problem with this logic? The problem is that young people rarely drink liquor, which doesn't mean that young people don't drink liquor after becoming middle-aged.</p><p>From the classification of alcoholic beverages, the core group of beer is young people, representing vitality and youth; The core crowd of liquor is middle-aged and elderly people, which corresponds to the emotional release of \"singing about wine and the geometry of life\" and the social entertainment of \"when you will drink wine, don't stop drinking\". Many times, if you are less than a certain age, you can't feel the spicy, sweet and bitter taste of life, and there is no demand for liquor.</p><p>Therefore, liquor consumption is emotionally driven and emotionally driven, and mixed with the long-standing cultural tradition, which has already penetrated into everyone's blood. At a certain age and after a certain point in time, this emotional demand will be activated. Therefore, it is not a tragedy of the liquor industry for young people not to drink liquor. Young people will grow old.</p><p>In addition, due to the cancer caused by alcohol and the harm caused by drinking, it is the general trend that the total consumption of liquor will go downhill. In this context,<b>\"Drink less and drink good wine\" has become the medium-term logic that dominates the prospects of the industry. A large number of low-end liquor factories have been forced to close down. High-end and sub-high-end liquor have taken advantage of the trend. Industry concentration has increased rapidly, and leading liquor companies have remained strong.</b>In fact, since 2016, the total revenue of 19 listed liquor companies has maintained a relatively high growth rate. Except for 2020, which was affected by the epidemic, the growth rates in other years have been above double digits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409af137516de763e8c7ad86b915a801\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In this context, the fundamentals of head wine companies are likely to continue to stabilize and improve, while the development prospects of waist and tail companies are increasingly uncertain. Embracing the leader has become the mainstream liquor investment strategy at this stage.</p><p><b>Short-Term Perspective: Stable Fundamentals, Slightly High Valuations</b></p><p>From a short-term perspective, we should pay attention to two factors: one is short-term performance, and the other is valuation level.</p><p>Short-term performance fluctuations depend on the structural balance of supply and demand. Short-term changes on the supply side are limited, so the demand side often becomes the main traction force for short-term performance fluctuations. As far as mid-to high-end liquor is concerned, the main consumption scenarios are business banquets and festival social networking. The former depends on the prosperity of economic activities, while the latter is closely related to residents' income level.</p><p>In the first three quarters of 2021, the total revenue of 19 listed liquor companies was 230.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.42%; Achieved a net profit of 85.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. It should be said that the fundamental performance in 2021 is good. As far as 2022 is concerned, the biggest uncertainty still lies in whether the COVID-19 pandemic can be effectively controlled. Judging from the current situation, as long as there are no major accidents, the marginal impact of the epidemic will weaken day by day, and the demand side of liquor will continue the trend of consumption upgrading, which will provide strong support for mid-to-high-end liquor.</p><p>From the perspective of valuation level, currently, the P/E of the CSI Liquor Index is about 48 times, all A-shares are 20 times, and the CSI 300 is 14.25 times. Therefore, compared horizontally among various A-share sectors, the valuation of the liquor sector is still at a relatively high position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53743691d602e80a1ba164645551a270\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From a vertical perspective, since 2015, the quantile values of the P/E, price-to-book ratio, and price-to-sales ratio of the CSI Liquor Index have all been above 90%, that is, in all trading days in the past six years, the current valuation level is at 90% high. It can also be seen from the increase of the index. Since the end of 2008, the annualized increase of CSI Liquor Index has been 26%, while the annualized increase in the past three years has been as high as 64%. It also shows that the increase of liquor in the past three years is higher than the historical average level. According to the principle of mean reversion, the future increase will most likely be lower than the average level</p><p>Therefore, if we look at the factors of fundamentals and valuation comprehensively, due to the support of fundamentals, the downward space is limited, and liquor investment is still safe; But at the same time, since the valuation is at a historically high level, the upward space is also limited, so there is no need to expect too high returns.</p><p><b>2022 Outlook</b></p><p>Most investors agree that short-term market movements are unpredictable. In fact, it's not that it can't be predicted, or even accurately predicted, but that it's impossible to continuously make predictions that are basically consistent with the facts. In fact, almost all investors are predicting the market, and many investors have accurately predicted market changes at many points in time. The problem is that no one can continuously make accurate predictions.</p><p>Each prediction corresponds to a probability, although the deeper the fundamental research, the higher the probability of correct prediction. But probability is only a possibility after all. For a single event that cannot be repeated, even a high probability and accurate prediction is often inconsistent with the actual trend. As a result, short-term market forecasts are tantamount to rolling dice.</p><p><b>Therefore, for investors, if they want to benefit from market outlook and forecast, they must first disenchant the forecast itself to avoid the negativity of the forecast. The value of a prediction lies not in its outcome, but more in its process and logic.</b>As long as the logic is correct, this logic can realize itself with a high probability in a long period of time. Of course, the specific time point of realization is uncertain, which leads to the uncertainty of the prediction result. It is in this sense that the prediction process is valuable, but the prediction results are usually not referential.</p><p>Back to the liquor track, it doesn't matter whether it will rise or fall in 2022, because no one can give a definite conclusion beforehand. For investors, it is enough to focus on three points: First, the medium and long-term prospects of high-end and sub-high-end liquor are still good; Second, from the perspective of short-term fundamentals, the probability of marginal improvement on the demand side is greater, which supports the prosperity of the industry; Third, the current sector valuation is still at a relatively high position.</p><p>By paying attention to this information, investors can make their own investment decisions based on their own investment system. As for the result, they will only know after the result occurs. In the world of investing, there is never 100% certainty.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Outlook for liquor in 2022: Will it be extremely prosperous and usher in glory again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOutlook for liquor in 2022: Will it be extremely prosperous and usher in glory again?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">苏宁金融研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 10:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In the A-share market, the liquor track is the favorite of many investors. Looking back from the present, whether it is long-term returns or short-term market conditions, the liquor track is excellent: looking at long-term returns, in the 13 years from the end of 2008 to the end of 2021, the annualized increase of the CSI Liquor Index is as high as 26%; Looking at short-term returns, since the low point in 2018 (20211224), the Shenwan Liquor Index has increased by 452%.</p><p>But looking back on 2021, liquor has disappointed many investors, especially those who bought at a high point before the Spring Festival, and are still in a state of losing money. So, after a year of adjustment, will liquor be better in 2022?</p><p><b>Inventory of sector market conditions in 2021</b></p><p>From the beginning of the year to December 24, the CSI Liquor Index rose by 1.47% cumulatively, which was not ideal. It underperformed time deposits and the market. During the same period, the Wind All A Index rose by 7.8%. Specifically, small and medium-cap stocks performed well, the ChiNext Index rose by 11.15%, and the CSI 500 rose by 14.32%; Large-cap stocks performed slightly worse, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.17% and the CSI 300 falling 5.56% during the same period.</p><p>Considering that many liquor investors got on the bus at a high point on the eve of the Spring Festival last year, the shareholding experience throughout the year was even worse, and they are still in a state of losing money.</p><p>From the perspective of individual stocks, the performance of liquor throughout the year is obviously differentiated. As of December 24, 2021, among the 19 A-share liquor listed companies, Shede Liquor Industry has the best increase, reaching 181%, and Yingjia Gongjiu has also increased by 120%; Shunxin Agriculture performed the worst, falling 47.3% throughout the year, almost cut in half, and Yanghe shares fell 24.9%, which did not perform well. As far as the three companies in the high-end liquor track are concerned, Moutai rose 10.85%, Luzhou Old Cellar rose 16.85%, and Wuliangye fell 16.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8905b57e728a5f24e594354fe534616\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On the same track, individual stocks vary greatly, because once it comes to the level of individual stocks, the influence of industry logic will take a back seat in the short term, and stock price changes are more affected by individual stock valuation, short-term performance, market catalytic factors, market sentiment, outlook and other comprehensive effects, losing predictability. In this sense, for most investors, if they are optimistic about the liquor sector, liquor index funds are still a better choice.</p><p><b>Medium-and long-term perspective: The prospect of mid-to-high-end liquor is good</b></p><p>Industry investment should focus on medium and long-term layout and look for trading opportunities based on short-term market fluctuations. Therefore, in order to find layout opportunities in 2022, we need to first grasp the medium and long-term development prospects of the industry.</p><p>In the past few years, as the total consumption of liquor continued to shrink, there was a widely circulated logic of looking down on liquor in the market, that is, young people no longer drink liquor, so the liquor industry has no future. Because the time is not long enough, it cannot be said that this logic has been falsified by facts, but with the recovery of the high-end liquor market, few people mention it again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e9222663f41c47082b3b673a5d7db5\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So, \"Young people rarely drink liquor, so the liquor industry has no future.\" What is the problem with this logic? The problem is that young people rarely drink liquor, which doesn't mean that young people don't drink liquor after becoming middle-aged.</p><p>From the classification of alcoholic beverages, the core group of beer is young people, representing vitality and youth; The core crowd of liquor is middle-aged and elderly people, which corresponds to the emotional release of \"singing about wine and the geometry of life\" and the social entertainment of \"when you will drink wine, don't stop drinking\". Many times, if you are less than a certain age, you can't feel the spicy, sweet and bitter taste of life, and there is no demand for liquor.</p><p>Therefore, liquor consumption is emotionally driven and emotionally driven, and mixed with the long-standing cultural tradition, which has already penetrated into everyone's blood. At a certain age and after a certain point in time, this emotional demand will be activated. Therefore, it is not a tragedy of the liquor industry for young people not to drink liquor. Young people will grow old.</p><p>In addition, due to the cancer caused by alcohol and the harm caused by drinking, it is the general trend that the total consumption of liquor will go downhill. In this context,<b>\"Drink less and drink good wine\" has become the medium-term logic that dominates the prospects of the industry. A large number of low-end liquor factories have been forced to close down. High-end and sub-high-end liquor have taken advantage of the trend. Industry concentration has increased rapidly, and leading liquor companies have remained strong.</b>In fact, since 2016, the total revenue of 19 listed liquor companies has maintained a relatively high growth rate. Except for 2020, which was affected by the epidemic, the growth rates in other years have been above double digits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409af137516de763e8c7ad86b915a801\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In this context, the fundamentals of head wine companies are likely to continue to stabilize and improve, while the development prospects of waist and tail companies are increasingly uncertain. Embracing the leader has become the mainstream liquor investment strategy at this stage.</p><p><b>Short-Term Perspective: Stable Fundamentals, Slightly High Valuations</b></p><p>From a short-term perspective, we should pay attention to two factors: one is short-term performance, and the other is valuation level.</p><p>Short-term performance fluctuations depend on the structural balance of supply and demand. Short-term changes on the supply side are limited, so the demand side often becomes the main traction force for short-term performance fluctuations. As far as mid-to high-end liquor is concerned, the main consumption scenarios are business banquets and festival social networking. The former depends on the prosperity of economic activities, while the latter is closely related to residents' income level.</p><p>In the first three quarters of 2021, the total revenue of 19 listed liquor companies was 230.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.42%; Achieved a net profit of 85.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. It should be said that the fundamental performance in 2021 is good. As far as 2022 is concerned, the biggest uncertainty still lies in whether the COVID-19 pandemic can be effectively controlled. Judging from the current situation, as long as there are no major accidents, the marginal impact of the epidemic will weaken day by day, and the demand side of liquor will continue the trend of consumption upgrading, which will provide strong support for mid-to-high-end liquor.</p><p>From the perspective of valuation level, currently, the P/E of the CSI Liquor Index is about 48 times, all A-shares are 20 times, and the CSI 300 is 14.25 times. Therefore, compared horizontally among various A-share sectors, the valuation of the liquor sector is still at a relatively high position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53743691d602e80a1ba164645551a270\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From a vertical perspective, since 2015, the quantile values of the P/E, price-to-book ratio, and price-to-sales ratio of the CSI Liquor Index have all been above 90%, that is, in all trading days in the past six years, the current valuation level is at 90% high. It can also be seen from the increase of the index. Since the end of 2008, the annualized increase of CSI Liquor Index has been 26%, while the annualized increase in the past three years has been as high as 64%. It also shows that the increase of liquor in the past three years is higher than the historical average level. According to the principle of mean reversion, the future increase will most likely be lower than the average level</p><p>Therefore, if we look at the factors of fundamentals and valuation comprehensively, due to the support of fundamentals, the downward space is limited, and liquor investment is still safe; But at the same time, since the valuation is at a historically high level, the upward space is also limited, so there is no need to expect too high returns.</p><p><b>2022 Outlook</b></p><p>Most investors agree that short-term market movements are unpredictable. In fact, it's not that it can't be predicted, or even accurately predicted, but that it's impossible to continuously make predictions that are basically consistent with the facts. In fact, almost all investors are predicting the market, and many investors have accurately predicted market changes at many points in time. The problem is that no one can continuously make accurate predictions.</p><p>Each prediction corresponds to a probability, although the deeper the fundamental research, the higher the probability of correct prediction. But probability is only a possibility after all. For a single event that cannot be repeated, even a high probability and accurate prediction is often inconsistent with the actual trend. As a result, short-term market forecasts are tantamount to rolling dice.</p><p><b>Therefore, for investors, if they want to benefit from market outlook and forecast, they must first disenchant the forecast itself to avoid the negativity of the forecast. The value of a prediction lies not in its outcome, but more in its process and logic.</b>As long as the logic is correct, this logic can realize itself with a high probability in a long period of time. Of course, the specific time point of realization is uncertain, which leads to the uncertainty of the prediction result. It is in this sense that the prediction process is valuable, but the prediction results are usually not referential.</p><p>Back to the liquor track, it doesn't matter whether it will rise or fall in 2022, because no one can give a definite conclusion beforehand. For investors, it is enough to focus on three points: First, the medium and long-term prospects of high-end and sub-high-end liquor are still good; Second, from the perspective of short-term fundamentals, the probability of marginal improvement on the demand side is greater, which supports the prosperity of the industry; Third, the current sector valuation is still at a relatively high position.</p><p>By paying attention to this information, investors can make their own investment decisions based on their own investment system. As for the result, they will only know after the result occurs. In the world of investing, there is never 100% certainty.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwOTc2MDg0Ng==&mid=2651011137&idx=1&sn=70575bf594b8a7c3d38bf478e7b9549e&chksm=80ad2160b7daa876b2a21f4422675569d1226de6bb2459e82756d19a777b4496922f3a787a86&scene=27#wechat_redirect\">苏宁金融研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028f21b9e1187158e59b0f369bd94af2","relate_stocks":{"600702":"舍得酒业"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwOTc2MDg0Ng==&mid=2651011137&idx=1&sn=70575bf594b8a7c3d38bf478e7b9549e&chksm=80ad2160b7daa876b2a21f4422675569d1226de6bb2459e82756d19a777b4496922f3a787a86&scene=27#wechat_redirect","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186189945","content_text":"在A股市场，白酒赛道是很多投资者的心头好。站在当下向前回溯，无论是长期收益还是短期行情，白酒赛道都堪称优秀：看长期收益，2008年末-2021年末的13年间，中证白酒指数年化涨幅高达26%；看短期收益，自2018年低点至今（20211224），申万白酒指数涨幅达452%。但回顾2021年，白酒让很多投资者大失所望，尤其是春节前高点买入的投资者，仍处于亏钱状态。那么，经过了一年的调整，2022年的白酒会更好吗？2021年板块行情盘点从年初至12月24日，中证白酒指数累计上涨1.47%，并不理想，跑输了定期存款，也跑输了市场大盘。同期，万得全A指数上涨7.8%，具体来看，中小盘股票表现良好，创业板指上涨11.15%，中证500上涨14.32%；大盘股表现略差，上证指数上涨4.17%，沪深300同期下跌5.56%。考虑到不少白酒投资者于去年春节前夕的高点上车，全年的持股体验更差，当前仍处于亏钱状态。从个股来看，白酒的全年表现分化很明显。截止2021年12月24日，19家A股白酒上市公司，舍得酒业涨幅最好，高达181%，迎驾贡酒涨幅也达到120%；顺鑫农业表现最差，全年下跌47.3%，几乎腰斩，洋河股份下跌24.9%，表现也不好。就高端白酒赛道中的三家公司来看，茅台上涨10.85%，泸州老窖上涨16.85%，五粮液下跌16.3%。同一个赛道，个股差异很大，因为一旦涉及到个股层面，行业逻辑的影响在短期内会退居次位，股价变动更多地受个股估值、短期业绩、行情催化因素、市场情绪、前景展望等综合影响，失去了可预测性。在这个意义上，对多数投资者而言，如果看好白酒板块，白酒指数基金仍是更好的选择。中长期视角：中高端白酒前景向好行业投资应着眼于中长期布局，并基于短期市场波动寻找交易时机。所以，要寻找2022年的布局机会，需要先把握行业中长期的发展前景。前几年，随着白酒消费总量的持续缩水，市场中曾有个看衰白酒的逻辑广为流传，即年轻人不喝白酒了，所以白酒产业没有未来。因为时间还不够长，所以还不能说这个逻辑被事实证伪，只不过随着高端白酒市场的回暖，少有人再提而已。那么，“年轻人很少喝白酒了，所以白酒产业没有未来”，这个逻辑的问题出在哪里呢？问题在于，年轻人很少喝白酒，并不意味着年轻人变成中年人后不喝白酒。从酒精饮料的分类看，啤酒的核心人群是年轻人，代表的是活力和青春；白酒的核心人群是中老年人，对应的是“对酒当歌、人生几何”的情绪释放和“将进酒，杯莫停”的社交应酬。很多时候，不到一定的年龄，体会不到生活的辛辣甜苦，对白酒是没有需求的。所以，白酒消费，背后是情感驱动和情绪驱动，并与悠久的文化传统夹杂在一块，早已渗透到每个人的血液之中，到了一定年纪、过了某个时点，这种情感需求自会被激活。因此，年轻人不喝白酒，并非白酒行业的悲歌，年轻人是会变老的。此外，受酒精致癌、喝酒伤身等影响，白酒消费总量走下坡路是大势所趋。在此背景下，“少喝酒、喝好酒”成为主导行业前景的中期逻辑，大量低端白酒厂关门倒逼，高端、次高端白酒顺势而起，行业集中度快速提升，龙头酒企强者恒强。事实上，2016年以来，19家上市白酒公司营收总额仍保持着较高的增速，除2020年受疫情因素影响外，其他年份增速均在两位数以上。在此背景下，头部酒企的基本面大概率继续稳中向好，而腰部、尾部企业的发展前景不确定增大。拥抱龙头，成为现阶段主流的白酒投资策略。短期视角：基本面稳定，估值略高就短期视角来看，要关注两个因素：一是短期业绩，二是估值水平。短期业绩波动，取决于供需的结构平衡。供给侧短期变动有限，故需求侧往往成为短期业绩波动的主要牵引力量。就中高端白酒而言，主要消费场景是商务宴请和节日社交，前者取决于经济活动的繁荣度，后者与居民收入水平息息相关。2021年前三季度，19家上市白酒企业总营收2309亿元，同比增长19.42%；实现净利润858亿元，同比增长19.5%。应该讲，2021年的基本面表现是不错的，就2022年来看，最大的不确定性因素仍在于新冠疫情能否得到有效控制。结合目前局势来看，只要不出现大的意外，疫情的边际影响会日趋减弱，白酒需求侧继续延续消费升级的趋势，对中高端白酒构成有力支撑。从估值水平来看，当前，中证白酒指数的市盈率在48倍左右，全部A股是20倍，沪深300是14.25倍。所以，在A股各个板块中横向对比，白酒板块的估值仍处于相对较高的位置。纵向来看，2015年以来，中证白酒指数的市盈率、市净率、市销率的分位值都在90%以上，也就是近6年来的所有交易日中，当前的估值水平处于90%的高位。从指数的涨幅也能看出来。自2008年底以来，中证白酒指数的年化涨幅是26%，而近三年的年化涨幅则高达64%。也说明，最近三年白酒的涨幅高于历史平均水平，按照均值回归原理，未来的涨幅大概率将低于平均水平所以，如果结合基本面和估值的因素综合来看，由于基本面的支撑，向下的空间有限，白酒投资依旧安全；但同时由于估值处于历史高位，向上的空间也有限，不必期待太高的收益。2022年前景展望多数投资者都认可这样一个共识，即短期市场变动不可预测。其实，不是不可以预测，甚至也不是不能准确预测，而是不能连续做出与事实基本相符的预测。事实上，几乎所有的投资者都在预测市场，也有不少投资者在不少时点准确预测了市场变动，问题在于，没有人能够持续做出准确预测。每一种预测对应的都是一个概率，虽然基本面研究越深入，正确预测的概率越高。但概率毕竟只是一种可能性，就不能重复进行的单一事件来说，既便是大概率准确的预测，往往也与现实走势不符。从结果上看，短期市场的预测就无异于掷骰子。所以，对投资者而言，要想从市场展望和预测中受益，就必须先对预测本身去魅，以避免预测的负面性。预测的价值不在于其结果，更多地在于过程和逻辑。只要逻辑是正确的，在一个较长的时期内，这种逻辑大概率就能自我实现，当然，具体哪个时点实现具有不确定性，这就造成了预测结果的不确定性。正是在这个意义上，预测过程有价值，预测结果却通常不具有可参考性。回到白酒赛道，2022年是涨是跌并不重要，因为没人能事前给出确定性结论。对投资者而言，主要关注到三个点就够了：一是高端、次高端白酒中长期前景依旧向好；二是短期基本面来看，需求侧边际好转的概率更大，对行业景气度形成支撑；三是当前板块估值仍处于相对较高的位置。关注到这些信息，投资者便可基于自身的投资体系自行做出投资决策，至于结果如何，只有等结果发生后才知道。投资的世界里，从来没有100%的确定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600702":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961097716,"gmtCreate":1668781323036,"gmtModify":1676538112976,"author":{"id":"3564764075723095","authorId":"3564764075723095","name":"Elio 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