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2021-07-11

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Thorpe and Simmons: The legendary lives of two godfather investment tycoons

2021-07-11

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2021-07-02

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[Change] U.S. oil and gas stocks performed strongly, U.S. energy rose more than 12%

2021-07-01

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Fryer! Two circuit breakers Dingdong Maicai soared nearly 100%! The boss's net worth exceeds Zhang Lei's

2021-06-30

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What is the correct investment posture in the second half of the year? Looking for active opportunities in "equilibrium"

2021-06-18

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Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?

2021-06-18

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Chinese concept education stocks continued to fall, TAL fell nearly 9%

2021-06-05

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Opening: U.S. stocks opened higher across the board, the concept of retail investors rebounded, and auto stocks collectively rose

2021-06-05

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AMC Theaters rose more than 5%, Bank of America conceded defeat to retail investors' group stocks

2021-05-30

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17:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Thorpe and Simmons: The legendary lives of two godfather investment tycoons","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124741749","media":"SMARTMATRIX","summary":"他们都出生于30年代，自幼天赋异禀、身在学术圈但都一心向钱，有两个共同的母校。","content":"<p>A Man for All Markets is the personal biography of Edward Thorp, the Chinese translation of \"The Man Who Beat All Markets\". Judging from Thorp's experience, from defeating casinos to entering Wall Street, OTC options, convertible bonds, stocks, futures and other derivatives, all Dabbled in, worthy of the name All Markets. Taleb says in the preface that his memoir reads like a thriller.</p><p>As a mathematical genius and the godfather of quantitative investment, he pioneered the introduction of probability theory, information theory, and computer programming into financial transactions, which influenced countless Quant bosses in later generations: Bill Gross, David Shaw, Ken Griffin... including the famous James Simons, whose Renaissance Technology company created the myth of the rate of return in financial history. Similarly, Simons' biography The Man Who Solved The Market records in detail the ups and downs of his and his team's conquest of the financial market.</p><p><b>Academic origin</b></p><p>When culture flourishes, people are outstanding. The so-called outstanding people, such as the Huxiang School since the late Ming Dynasty in China, made Hunan the cradle of revolutionaries. In the academic circle, there is a similar phenomenon. If you study the backgrounds of the two bosses carefully, you will find a lot in common. They were both born in the 1930s. They were gifted since childhood, in the academic circle, but they were all dedicated to money. They have two common alma maters: the University of California, Berkeley and MIT. The academics of both universities reached their peak after the war. One of the main reasons was the large-scale military scientific research activities (the famous Manhattan Project, cryptography, information theory and modern computers) spawned by World War II. Both Thorp and Simons happened to catch up with this wave of academic dividends. In the 1950s, Thorp was obsessed with studying roulette with Shannon, while Simons was still immersed in theoretical mathematics, which also made his academic achievements higher (Chern-Simons Theroy). In the 1960s, MIT became the center of the computer revolution, and mathematics and computers were the two keys to Wall Street, and Thorp was the lucky one to hold these two keys.</p><p><b>Casinos vs Wall Street</b></p><p>The popular story nowadays is that Thorp defeated the casino by using the law of large numbers and Kelly's formula, and he became the first person in history to be \"blacked out\" by Las Vegas casinos. By contrast, the hedge fund he founded, PNP (Princeton Newport Partners), has a dim profile. In fact, from 1969 to 1988, the annualized returns of the two PNP funds reached 19.1% and 15.1% respectively, while the average annual growth rate of the S&P index during the same period was 10.2%. In the past 19 years, after two oil crises in the 1970s and the stock market crash in 1987, the two funds have never suffered a single-quarter loss, let alone an annual loss. In the world's largest casino, its performance is unparalleled, and its investment model is 20 years ahead of the wide customers who have filed into Wall Street since then.</p><p>In 1988, Thorp's fund was forced to close because it was implicated in the case of Milken, the king of junk bonds. It was in this year that Simons established the Medallion Fund. He is over 500 years old and can be described as a late bloomer. Before that, he had been groping for 10 years to find a successful investment model, and had been swinging between subjective and quantitative. Although the outside world has always regarded Simons as a master of quantitative investment, in fact, his role is completely different from Thorp's. His main job is not to develop quantitative models, but to dig all kinds of scientists from the academic circle to help the company develop quantitative models, and shape the company's corporate culture as a spiritual leader. As a world-class mathematician + excellent sales, he can deal with different people well, which is a rare ability.</p><p><b>The road to quantification</b></p><p>As a pioneer in quantitative trading, Thorp is good at hedging and arbitrage of various derivatives. The bear market and volatility in the 1970s made this strategy work perfectly. Relying on his mathematical talent and market sense, he discovered new blue oceans: Statistical Arbitrage and factor models-early quant prototypes. The risk under this model is theoretically infinite, especially the upper limit of losses for shorting those overvalued stocks is infinite. Thorp's main risk control strategy is diversified investment. Since then, LTCM has adopted a similar arbitrage model, but lacked a risk control strategy like Thorp and was defeated by the black swan. In order to improve investment efficiency, Thorp turned investment strategies into programs and once again became a pioneer in programmatic trading (Algorithm Trading).</p><p>Simons, in contrast, was less lucky. From early attempts at intuitive investing to trend-based momentum trading, reversal trading to continuous collection and mining of massive amounts of data, including data cleaning, signal mechanism and backtesting. In 1986, the model framework for identifying hidden price trends was used-in 1989, abnormal trading signals were used for short-term high-frequency trading-in 1992, it was changed to only a single model (key breakthrough), and then speech recognition experts helped make various technological breakthroughs (financial models have similarities with speech recognition), and the model has gone through a long process of iterative improvement. In the end, the important core competence of the model was developed: identifying the \"value of transactions\", including: the certainty of price trends, the weight trade-off between trading signals, and the judgment of the impact of trading based on signals on the market. This capability is particularly important for high-frequency full-variety trading.</p><p><b>Winning System: Probabilistic Thinking & Modeling Human Behavior</b></p><p>For Thorp, gambling and investment are games based on probability statistics, and the bet amount is allocated according to the winning percentage (fund management based on Kelly's law). The first major breakthrough of Medallion Fund also comes from the application of Kelly's law and shortening the trading frequency to make its trading more reflective of the law of large numbers. Medallion's system can make money as long as the winning rate is slightly above 50%, regardless of the profit or loss of every sale. Essentially, it is making money by taking advantage of the omissions and mistakes of other traders (market ineffectiveness). Humans are highly predictable in their behavior under high pressure, and they instinctively show panic. The premise of modeling is that humans will constantly repeat past behaviors. Soros once modeled human behavior with the philosophical theory of reflexivity, while Simons's team used data and algorithms to model human behavior to confirm the theory of behavioral finance.</p><p>Unlike traditional value investing, which simplifies the market into a market gentleman, the experience of quantitative investing is that there are far more factors and variables that affect financial markets and investments than most people realize, and the factors that lead to market ineffectiveness can even be said to be encrypted (Thorp spares no effort to refute the efficient market hypothesis in his book). Investors try to find the most basic driving factors, but what they are missing may be an entire dimension of information. Medallion Fund can't explain the logic behind every profit law, just as human beings can't understand Alpha Go, perhaps it exists at a higher latitude.</p><p>Models are abstractions and simplifications of the world, but models are not omnipotent. When data and desire conflict, even rational scientists cannot be completely rational. Simons' original intention was to create an algorithm-driven automatic trading system, which completely shielded human subjective judgment. However, in every crisis, he still couldn't help but intervene manually to reduce his dependence on signals and actively reduce his trading position. The results of the intervention were not very ideal. His colleague Patterson also said: \"<b>Never put too much trust in trading models. The basic mistake of LTCMs is to believe that the model is the truth. We never believe that our model can reflect the whole fact, it only reflects some of it</b>。”</p><p><b>Wide guest student</b></p><p>In fact, the intersection of many big guys is far beyond our imagination. For example, Thorp and Buffett played at the bridge table. After confirming that Buffett would eventually become the richest man in the United States, they decisively invested in BRK stock. Many people think that Xueba may not necessarily have a good life. After all, there is a huge gap between book smart and street smart, and the rules of the real world are much more complicated than those of schools. However, Thorp has practiced the way of thinking of applying abstract thinking to real life, which truly explains that \"a tough life doesn't need to be explained\". Academics, wealth and family are perfect, and he realized early that life itself is higher than making money. Compared with Thorp's splendid life, Simons's life has too many twists and turns. He is divorced, his two sons have suffered misfortune and betrayal by his partners. But in the end, I chose to make peace with life and devote myself to charity. From academic career to lenient students, I explored the true meaning of destiny in the ups and downs, and experience itself was the meaning. As Thorp said at the end of his autobiography: Life is like reading a novel or running a marathon. Reaching the finish line is often not so important, but the journey itself and the experience along the way are more precious.<b>You have dance.</b></p>","source":"lsy1625911325017","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Thorpe and Simmons: The legendary lives of two godfather investment tycoons</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThorpe and Simmons: The legendary lives of two godfather investment tycoons\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">SMARTMATRIX</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 17:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A Man for All Markets is the personal biography of Edward Thorp, the Chinese translation of \"The Man Who Beat All Markets\". Judging from Thorp's experience, from defeating casinos to entering Wall Street, OTC options, convertible bonds, stocks, futures and other derivatives, all Dabbled in, worthy of the name All Markets. Taleb says in the preface that his memoir reads like a thriller.</p><p>As a mathematical genius and the godfather of quantitative investment, he pioneered the introduction of probability theory, information theory, and computer programming into financial transactions, which influenced countless Quant bosses in later generations: Bill Gross, David Shaw, Ken Griffin... including the famous James Simons, whose Renaissance Technology company created the myth of the rate of return in financial history. Similarly, Simons' biography The Man Who Solved The Market records in detail the ups and downs of his and his team's conquest of the financial market.</p><p><b>Academic origin</b></p><p>When culture flourishes, people are outstanding. The so-called outstanding people, such as the Huxiang School since the late Ming Dynasty in China, made Hunan the cradle of revolutionaries. In the academic circle, there is a similar phenomenon. If you study the backgrounds of the two bosses carefully, you will find a lot in common. They were both born in the 1930s. They were gifted since childhood, in the academic circle, but they were all dedicated to money. They have two common alma maters: the University of California, Berkeley and MIT. The academics of both universities reached their peak after the war. One of the main reasons was the large-scale military scientific research activities (the famous Manhattan Project, cryptography, information theory and modern computers) spawned by World War II. Both Thorp and Simons happened to catch up with this wave of academic dividends. In the 1950s, Thorp was obsessed with studying roulette with Shannon, while Simons was still immersed in theoretical mathematics, which also made his academic achievements higher (Chern-Simons Theroy). In the 1960s, MIT became the center of the computer revolution, and mathematics and computers were the two keys to Wall Street, and Thorp was the lucky one to hold these two keys.</p><p><b>Casinos vs Wall Street</b></p><p>The popular story nowadays is that Thorp defeated the casino by using the law of large numbers and Kelly's formula, and he became the first person in history to be \"blacked out\" by Las Vegas casinos. By contrast, the hedge fund he founded, PNP (Princeton Newport Partners), has a dim profile. In fact, from 1969 to 1988, the annualized returns of the two PNP funds reached 19.1% and 15.1% respectively, while the average annual growth rate of the S&P index during the same period was 10.2%. In the past 19 years, after two oil crises in the 1970s and the stock market crash in 1987, the two funds have never suffered a single-quarter loss, let alone an annual loss. In the world's largest casino, its performance is unparalleled, and its investment model is 20 years ahead of the wide customers who have filed into Wall Street since then.</p><p>In 1988, Thorp's fund was forced to close because it was implicated in the case of Milken, the king of junk bonds. It was in this year that Simons established the Medallion Fund. He is over 500 years old and can be described as a late bloomer. Before that, he had been groping for 10 years to find a successful investment model, and had been swinging between subjective and quantitative. Although the outside world has always regarded Simons as a master of quantitative investment, in fact, his role is completely different from Thorp's. His main job is not to develop quantitative models, but to dig all kinds of scientists from the academic circle to help the company develop quantitative models, and shape the company's corporate culture as a spiritual leader. As a world-class mathematician + excellent sales, he can deal with different people well, which is a rare ability.</p><p><b>The road to quantification</b></p><p>As a pioneer in quantitative trading, Thorp is good at hedging and arbitrage of various derivatives. The bear market and volatility in the 1970s made this strategy work perfectly. Relying on his mathematical talent and market sense, he discovered new blue oceans: Statistical Arbitrage and factor models-early quant prototypes. The risk under this model is theoretically infinite, especially the upper limit of losses for shorting those overvalued stocks is infinite. Thorp's main risk control strategy is diversified investment. Since then, LTCM has adopted a similar arbitrage model, but lacked a risk control strategy like Thorp and was defeated by the black swan. In order to improve investment efficiency, Thorp turned investment strategies into programs and once again became a pioneer in programmatic trading (Algorithm Trading).</p><p>Simons, in contrast, was less lucky. From early attempts at intuitive investing to trend-based momentum trading, reversal trading to continuous collection and mining of massive amounts of data, including data cleaning, signal mechanism and backtesting. In 1986, the model framework for identifying hidden price trends was used-in 1989, abnormal trading signals were used for short-term high-frequency trading-in 1992, it was changed to only a single model (key breakthrough), and then speech recognition experts helped make various technological breakthroughs (financial models have similarities with speech recognition), and the model has gone through a long process of iterative improvement. In the end, the important core competence of the model was developed: identifying the \"value of transactions\", including: the certainty of price trends, the weight trade-off between trading signals, and the judgment of the impact of trading based on signals on the market. This capability is particularly important for high-frequency full-variety trading.</p><p><b>Winning System: Probabilistic Thinking & Modeling Human Behavior</b></p><p>For Thorp, gambling and investment are games based on probability statistics, and the bet amount is allocated according to the winning percentage (fund management based on Kelly's law). The first major breakthrough of Medallion Fund also comes from the application of Kelly's law and shortening the trading frequency to make its trading more reflective of the law of large numbers. Medallion's system can make money as long as the winning rate is slightly above 50%, regardless of the profit or loss of every sale. Essentially, it is making money by taking advantage of the omissions and mistakes of other traders (market ineffectiveness). Humans are highly predictable in their behavior under high pressure, and they instinctively show panic. The premise of modeling is that humans will constantly repeat past behaviors. Soros once modeled human behavior with the philosophical theory of reflexivity, while Simons's team used data and algorithms to model human behavior to confirm the theory of behavioral finance.</p><p>Unlike traditional value investing, which simplifies the market into a market gentleman, the experience of quantitative investing is that there are far more factors and variables that affect financial markets and investments than most people realize, and the factors that lead to market ineffectiveness can even be said to be encrypted (Thorp spares no effort to refute the efficient market hypothesis in his book). Investors try to find the most basic driving factors, but what they are missing may be an entire dimension of information. Medallion Fund can't explain the logic behind every profit law, just as human beings can't understand Alpha Go, perhaps it exists at a higher latitude.</p><p>Models are abstractions and simplifications of the world, but models are not omnipotent. When data and desire conflict, even rational scientists cannot be completely rational. Simons' original intention was to create an algorithm-driven automatic trading system, which completely shielded human subjective judgment. However, in every crisis, he still couldn't help but intervene manually to reduce his dependence on signals and actively reduce his trading position. The results of the intervention were not very ideal. His colleague Patterson also said: \"<b>Never put too much trust in trading models. The basic mistake of LTCMs is to believe that the model is the truth. We never believe that our model can reflect the whole fact, it only reflects some of it</b>。”</p><p><b>Wide guest student</b></p><p>In fact, the intersection of many big guys is far beyond our imagination. For example, Thorp and Buffett played at the bridge table. After confirming that Buffett would eventually become the richest man in the United States, they decisively invested in BRK stock. Many people think that Xueba may not necessarily have a good life. After all, there is a huge gap between book smart and street smart, and the rules of the real world are much more complicated than those of schools. However, Thorp has practiced the way of thinking of applying abstract thinking to real life, which truly explains that \"a tough life doesn't need to be explained\". Academics, wealth and family are perfect, and he realized early that life itself is higher than making money. Compared with Thorp's splendid life, Simons's life has too many twists and turns. He is divorced, his two sons have suffered misfortune and betrayal by his partners. But in the end, I chose to make peace with life and devote myself to charity. From academic career to lenient students, I explored the true meaning of destiny in the ups and downs, and experience itself was the meaning. As Thorp said at the end of his autobiography: Life is like reading a novel or running a marathon. Reaching the finish line is often not so important, but the journey itself and the experience along the way are more precious.<b>You have dance.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g5Zdx-uS3wl9QbsHZm1DVw\">SMARTMATRIX</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388d882133df2db2363aa871ff756c47","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g5Zdx-uS3wl9QbsHZm1DVw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124741749","content_text":"A Man for All Markets是Edward Thorp的个人传记，中文翻译《战胜一切市场的人》，从Thorp的经历来看，从打败赌场到进入华尔街，OTC期权、可转债、股票、期货等衍生品，全部涉猎，名副其实的All Markets。塔勒布在序言里说，他的回忆录读起来像一部惊悚小说。\n作为一个数学天才、量化投资教父级人物，他开创性的将概率论、信息论、计算机编程引入金融交易，影响了后世无数Quant大佬：Bill Gross、David Shaw、Ken Griffin...其中也包括大名鼎鼎的James Simons，后者的文艺复兴科技公司创造了金融史上的回报率神话，同样，讲述Simons的传记The Man Who Solved The Market，详细记录了他和他的团队征服金融市场的起起落落，虽是一位华尔街日报作家根据采访汇编而成，但其中不少以前从未披露过的精彩故事。\n学术源流\n文化兴，则人杰出，所谓的人杰地灵，比如中国明末以来的湖湘学派让湖南成为革命党人的摇篮。在学术圈，也有类似的现象。仔细研究两位大佬的背景，会发现很多共通点，他们都出生于30年代，自幼天赋异禀、身在学术圈但都一心向钱，有两个共同的母校：加州大学伯克利分校和MIT。两校的学术在战后都达到了巅峰，主要一个原因就是二战催生的大规军事科研活动（著名的曼哈顿计划、密码学、信息论和现代计算机），Thorp和Simons都恰好赶上了这波学术红利。50年代，Thorp醉心于和香农一起研究轮盘赌，而Simons仍埋头于理论数学问题，这也使得其在学术上的成就更高（Chern-Simons Theroy）。60年代，MIT成为计算机革命的中心，而数学和计算机正是通向华尔街的两把钥匙，Thorp正是手握这两把钥匙的幸运儿。\n赌场vs华尔街\n如今为人津津乐道的故事是Thorp利用大数定律和凯利公式打败了赌场，他也成了历史上第一个被拉斯维加斯赌场“拉黑”的人。相比之下，他创设的对冲基金PNP（Princeton Newport Partners）知名度黯淡不少。实际上，从1969年到1988年，PNP两支基金的年化收益率分别达到19.1%和15.1%，同期标普指数年均增长率为10.2%。19年间历经70年代两次石油危机、87年股灾，两只基金从未发生单季亏损，更没有年度亏损。在世间最大的赌场，其业绩冠绝其时，其投资模式，领先此后鱼贯进入华尔街的宽客们20年。\n1988年，Thorp的基金因为受到垃圾债券之王米尔肯一案的牵连被迫关闭。正是在这一年，Simons成立大奖章基金，已年过半百的他，可谓大器晚成，在此前为了寻找成功的投资模型已经摸索了10年之久，一直在主观和量化之间摇摆。尽管外界一直都把Simons视作量化投资大师，但实际上他点角色和Thorp完全不同，他的主要工作并不是开发量化模型，而是从学术圈挖掘各类科学家来帮助公司开发量化模型，并且作为精神领袖塑造公司企业文化。作为一名世界级的数学家+卓越的销售，他与不同的人都能融洽的打交道，这是一种罕见的能力。\n量化之路\n作为量化交易的先驱，Thorp擅长各种衍生品的对冲套利，70年代的熊市和波动率让这种策略运行的非常完美。依靠自己的数学天赋和市场嗅觉发现了新的蓝海：统计套利（Statistical Arbitrage）和因子模型（factors model）——早期的quant原型。这种模式下的风险理论上是无穷的，尤其是做空那些价格高估的股票的损失上限是无穷大，Thorp主要风控策略是分散化投资。此后的LTCM采用类似的套利模式，但缺少Thorp这样的风控策略，被黑天鹅击败。为了提升投资效率，Thorp将投资策略变成程序，再次成为程序化交易（Algorithm Trading）的先驱。\n相比之下，Simons就没那么幸运了。从早期尝试直觉投资到基于趋势的动量交易、反转交易再到持续收集挖掘海量数据包括数据清洗、信号机制和回溯测试。1986年使用识别隐藏价格趋势的模型框架——1989年利用异常交易信号进行短期高频交易——1992年改为只用单一模型（关键性突破），而后语音识别专家帮助进行各种技术突破（金融模型与语音识别有相似之处），模型经历了漫长迭代改进的过程。最终练就了模型重要核心能力：识别出“交易的价值”，包括：价格趋势的确定性大小、交易信号之间的权重取舍、根据信号进行交易对市场造成的影响的判断。这项能力对于高频全品种交易尤为重要。\n取胜系统：概率思考&对人类行为建模\n对Thorp来说，赌博和投资都是以概率统计为基础的游戏，根据胜率的大小来分配下注金额的大小（基于凯利法则的资金管理），而大奖章基金的第一次重大突破也来自于对凯利法则的运用以及缩短交易频率使其交易更体现大数定律。大奖章的系统只要胜率略高于50%就能赚钱，而不在乎每一笔买卖的盈亏。本质上，是在利用其他交易者的疏忽和错误赚钱（市场无效）。人类在高压下的行为具有很高的可预测性，他们会本能地表现出恐慌。建模的前提是人类会不断重复过去的行为。索罗斯曾以反身性的哲学理论对人类行为建模，而Simons的团队利用数据和算法对人类行为建模，以此印证行为金融学的理论。\n与传统的价值投资把市场面简化成一位市场先生不同，量化投资的经验是，影响金融市场和投资的因素和变量远远比大多数人意识到的更多，导致市场无效的因素甚至可以说是加密的（Thorp在书中对有效市场假说也不遗余力的进行驳斥）。投资者努力寻找最基本的推动因素，但是遗漏的也许是一整个维度的信息。大奖章基金无法对每一条盈利的规律背后的逻辑进行解释，就如同人类无法理解阿尔法围棋一样，也许是更高纬度的存在。\n模型是对世界的抽象和简化，但模型并不是万能的。当数据和欲望相冲突，即便是理性的科学家，也无法做到完全理性。Simons的初心是创建的算法驱动的自动交易系统，完全屏蔽人类的主观判断，但每一次危机，他仍忍不住会手动干预，减少对信号的依赖，主动缩减交易头寸，可干预的结果并不十分理想。他的同事帕特森也说：”永远不要对交易模型过于信任。长期资本管理公司的基本错误是认为模型就是事实真相，我们从未相信我们的模型能够反映全部事实，它只反映事实的一部分。”\n宽客人生\n其实很多大佬的交集，远远超过我们想象。比如Thorp和巴菲特在桥牌桌上过过招，在确认巴菲特最终会成为全美最富有的人之后，果断投资了BRK的股票。很多人以为，学霸不一定会拥有好人生，毕竟，book smart和street smart之间的有极大的鸿沟，现实世界的规则比学校要复杂太多，但Thorp践行了将抽象思维运用到现实生活中的思维方式，真正诠释了“彪悍的人生不需要解释”，学术、财富、家庭圆满，很早就意识到在生活本身高于赚钱。相比较Thorp精彩纷呈的人生，Simons的人生曲折太多，离过婚，他的两个儿子先后遭受不幸，还遭遇过伙伴背叛。但最终还是选择和生活讲和，并投身慈善事业，从学术生涯到宽客人生，在跌宕起伏中探寻命运的真谛，而经历本身就是意义所在。就像Thorp在自传末尾所说：生活像是读一本小说或者跑一场马拉松，到达终点往往不是那么重要，旅途本身和沿途的体验更为珍贵。No body can take away the dance you have danced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148628043,"gmtCreate":1625972797782,"gmtModify":1703751453982,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148628043","repostId":"1145907959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158414126,"gmtCreate":1625174114265,"gmtModify":1703737558866,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158414126","repostId":"1101876919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101876919","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625146718,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101876919?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 21:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] U.S. oil and gas stocks performed strongly, U.S. energy rose more than 12%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101876919","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月1日，美股油气股表现强势，美国能源涨超12%，西方石油涨超6%，墨菲石油涨超4%，卡隆石油、马拉松石油、南非萨索尔涨超3%，英国石油涨超2%，荷兰皇家壳牌、道达尔、雪佛龙涨超1%。\nOPEC+代表","content":"<p>On July 1, U.S. oil and gas stocks performed strongly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Rose more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MUR\">Murphy Oil</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">Caron Petroleum</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSL\">Sasol, South Africa</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>It rose more than 2%, and Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and Chevron rose more than 1%.</p><p>OPEC representative: OPEC will discuss increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and will discuss extending the oil supply agreement until the end of 2022.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85938213b5fedea867d61a1d8020cd7b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] U.S. oil and gas stocks performed strongly, U.S. energy rose more than 12%</title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] U.S. oil and gas stocks performed strongly, U.S. energy rose more than 12%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-01 21:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 1, U.S. oil and gas stocks performed strongly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Rose more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MUR\">Murphy Oil</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">Caron Petroleum</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSL\">Sasol, South Africa</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>It rose more than 2%, and Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and Chevron rose more than 1%.</p><p>OPEC representative: OPEC will discuss increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and will discuss extending the oil supply agreement until the end of 2022.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85938213b5fedea867d61a1d8020cd7b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"OXY":"西方石油","USEG":"美国能源"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101876919","content_text":"7月1日，美股油气股表现强势，美国能源涨超12%，西方石油涨超6%，墨菲石油涨超4%，卡隆石油、马拉松石油、南非萨索尔涨超3%，英国石油涨超2%，荷兰皇家壳牌、道达尔、雪佛龙涨超1%。\nOPEC+代表：OPEC+将讨论8-12月每月增产40万桶/日，并将讨论把石油供应协议延长至2022年底 。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USEG":0.9,"OXY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151414863,"gmtCreate":1625102194252,"gmtModify":1703736140609,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151414863","repostId":"2148081027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148081027","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625100614,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148081027?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 08:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fryer! Two circuit breakers Dingdong Maicai soared nearly 100%! The boss's net worth exceeds Zhang Lei's","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148081027","media":"中国基金报","summary":"万万没想到，在美国上市的卖菜股迎来大逆转。在每日优鲜上市破发后，叮咚买菜大幅缩小融资额，上市当天一度破发，所幸收盘的时候微涨，但没想到30日晚间，来了一个惊天逆转，一度暴涨近100% ...","content":"<p><div>Unexpectedly, the vegetable stocks listed in the United States ushered in a big reversal. After the Daily Youxian listing broke, Dingdong Maicai greatly reduced the amount of financing, and once broke on the day of listing. Fortunately, it rose slightly at the close, but unexpectedly, on the evening of the 30th, there was a shocking reversal, which once soared by nearly 100%, during which it experienced two circuit breakers! Dingdong Maicai's share price soared. On June 30th, the day after Dingdong Maicai went public, its increase expanded to 43%, triggering the fuse to suspend trading. Subsequently, Dingdong Maicai resumed trading and continued to expand its gains, with an increase of 77.72% to US $41.8. It triggered the circuit breaker for the second time, and then continued trading. Stock price...</p><p><a href=\"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/usstock/20210701/c630603214.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"tonghuashun","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fryer! Two circuit breakers Dingdong Maicai soared nearly 100%! The boss's net worth exceeds Zhang Lei's</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFryer! Two circuit breakers Dingdong Maicai soared nearly 100%! The boss's net worth exceeds Zhang Lei's\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国基金报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Unexpectedly, the vegetable stocks listed in the United States ushered in a big reversal. After the Daily Youxian listing broke, Dingdong Maicai greatly reduced the amount of financing, and once broke on the day of listing. Fortunately, it rose slightly at the close, but unexpectedly, on the evening of the 30th, there was a shocking reversal, which once soared by nearly 100%, during which it experienced two circuit breakers! Dingdong Maicai's share price soared. On June 30th, the day after Dingdong Maicai went public, its increase expanded to 43%, triggering the fuse to suspend trading. Subsequently, Dingdong Maicai resumed trading and continued to expand its gains, with an increase of 77.72% to US $41.8. It triggered the circuit breaker for the second time, and then continued trading. Stock price...</p><p><a href=\"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/usstock/20210701/c630603214.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/usstock/20210701/c630603214.shtml\">中国基金报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"DDL":"叮咚买菜"},"source_url":"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/usstock/20210701/c630603214.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/f0343184bd9b9c963ed02b302442e2b8","article_id":"2148081027","content_text":"万万没想到，在美国上市的卖菜股迎来大逆转。\n在每日优鲜上市破发后，叮咚买菜大幅缩小融资额，上市当天一度破发，所幸收盘的时候微涨，但没想到30日晚间，来了一个惊天逆转，一度暴涨近100%，期间经历了两次熔断！\n叮咚买菜股价狂飙\n6月30日，叮咚买菜上市次日，其涨幅扩大至43%，触发熔断暂停交易。随后，叮咚买菜恢复交易继续扩大涨幅，涨幅达到77.72%，报41.8美元，二度触发熔断，随后继续交易。股价一度暴涨94%，市值一度站上100亿美元！\n截至发稿，股价大涨超70%左右。\n美东时间6月29日，叮咚买菜在纽交所上市，股票代码为DDL，定价23.5美元/股，上市首日开涨超19%，但随后涨幅迅速收窄，收盘时仅微涨0.09%，报23.52美元。由于此前“抢跑”的每日优鲜上市首日意外破发，连带外界对同样前置仓模式的叮咚买菜调低了期待值。\n根据最新的招股书，叮咚买菜首次公开发行370万股美国存托股票（ADS），以此计算，叮咚买菜此次募资约8695万美元。仅为原定计划的四分之一。\n值得一提的是，叮咚买菜原本的计划通过IPO筹资3.57亿美元，但是在上市前提交了新的监管文件，调降筹资额七成至 9440 万美元。对此，市场普遍认为这是对每日优鲜破发所作的调整。\n每日优鲜上市首日破发，暴跌25%，6月28日的交易进一步下跌，报收于每股8.84美元，比发行价下降了32%。或受次影响，叮咚买菜在6月29日上市前夕改变了募资规模，将其筹资规模大幅缩减至此前额度的四分之一。\n从财务数据来看，目前，叮咚买菜仍处于亏损状态。2019年、2020年，叮咚买菜的营收分别为38.80亿元、113.36亿元；亏损达18.73亿元和31.77亿元。两年累计亏损50.5亿元。今年第一季度，叮咚买菜营收38亿元，净亏损达13.85亿元。\n不过至于为什么突然暴涨，盘面上倒是看不出有何新消息。不过30日晚间同时也是滴滴在美国第一天上市，有分析称，是不是有投资者误把叮咚买菜（DDL）当成滴滴（DIDI）了。。。\n老板身家超高瓴张磊\n叮咚买菜的创始人兼CEO梁昌霖持股超30%，按照盘中市值计算，身家应该超过了30亿美元，已经比肩高瓴资本投资人张磊。\n或许是考虑到外界对叮咚买菜的质疑，梁昌霖在上市仪式现场表示，从上市当日开始，忘记股价，去做时间的朋友，创造长期价值，并且，梁昌霖强调，“上市不是为了圈钱”。\n叮咚买菜创始人兼CEO梁昌霖在上市活动中表示，公司从二级市场拿钱不是那么迫切，D和D+轮融了10.3亿美元，现金流充裕，二级市场要融多少钱对公司而言很灵活，“如果市场特别好，价格、价值可以挂钩的话，叮咚买菜多融一些；市场不是很好，价格低于应有的价值那就少融一些，上市目的并不是圈钱。”\n上市公司的股价表现，最终还是要回归到基本面上来。而以“烧钱”著称的生鲜电商，什么时候可以盈利仍然是个未知数。\n招股书显示，2019至2021年一季度，叮咚买菜营收分别为38.80亿元、113.36亿元和38亿元，营收持续增长。但其亏损也很惊人，2019年净亏损18.7亿；2020年净亏损31.77亿元，同比扩大69.6%；2021年一季度净亏损13.85亿元，同比扩大466.4%。按照这个亏损速度，此次IPO筹到的5.6亿元，也只够叮咚买菜“烧”一个多月。\n尽管梁昌霖声称“上市目的并不是圈钱”，但就财务数据来看，叮咚买菜账上的钱其实并不多。\n报告期内，叮咚买菜经营性现金流净额持续为负，2019年至2021年第一季度分别为-9.64亿元、-20.56亿元和-10.15亿元。此外，截至今年3月31日，叮咚买菜总负债8.98亿美元，持有现金及等价物9.73亿美元；截至2021年3月31日的12个月当中，公司自由现金流为-1.55亿美元。\n滴滴低调上市\n30日晚间，还有一件大事。\n滴滴今晚正式在纽交所挂牌上市，股票代码为 DIDI。高盛、摩根士丹利、摩根大通、华兴资本担任承销商。据悉，滴滴本次IPO的承销商名单中还有多家中资机构，包括中金、中银国际、交银国际、建银国际、招银国际、工银国际和国泰君安国际等。本次IPO中，滴滴发行价定为14美元，位于13-14美元/ ADS的发行区间上限。滴滴发行3.17亿股ADS，比原计划的2.88亿股多10%。以14美元的发行价计算，滴滴此次至少募资44亿美元，其IPO的估值超670亿美元。\n滴滴此次募资或可达到46.4亿美元，30%将用于扩大中国以外国际市场业务，30%用于提升包括共享出行、电动汽车和自动驾驶在内的技术能力，20%用于推出新产品和拓展现有产品品类以持续提升用户体验，剩余部分可能用于营运资金需求和潜在的战略投资等。\n滴滴今天的上市显得非常低调，内部并未有庆祝活动或举办上市仪式。\n在截至2021年3月31日的12个月里，滴滴全球年活跃用户为4.93亿，全球年活跃司机1500万。其中，自2020年3月31日至2021年3月31日，滴滴在中国拥有3.77亿年活跃用户和1300万年活跃司机。2021年第一季度，滴滴中国出行拥有1.56亿月活用户，中国出行业务日均交易量为2500万次。\n滴滴2018年、2019年、2020年营收分别为1353亿元、1547.86亿元、1417.36亿元；滴滴2021年第一季度营收为421.63亿元（约64.35亿美元），上年同期为204.72亿元。\n2020年，滴滴三大业务――中国出行业务、国际业务和其他业务收入分别是1336亿元、23亿元和58亿元。\n其中，中国出行业务和国际化业务的平台收入从2018年的187亿元，增长到2019年的242亿元，并进一步增长到2020年的347亿元，年均复合增长率为36%。2020年和2021年第一季度的平台收入中，93.4%来自于中国，6.6%来自于国际。\n滴滴2018年、2019年、2020年净亏损分别为149.79亿元、97.33亿元、106.08亿元（约16.19亿美元）；滴滴2021年第一季度利润为54.83亿元（约8.37亿美元），上年同期的净亏为39.72亿元。\n不过，滴滴2021年第一季度仍处于运营亏损状态，运营亏损为66.54亿元，之所以能实现盈利，主要是计入了一笔投资收入，高达123.61亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153613786,"gmtCreate":1625021042645,"gmtModify":1703850308078,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153613786","repostId":"1121871493","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121871493","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"走近最优秀的投资人，聆听客观表达的理性声音，只做最好的原创财富资讯，洞见独立思想，回归资本常识。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"聪明投资者","id":"1072656223","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f"},"pubTimestamp":1625020030,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121871493?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"What is the correct investment posture in the second half of the year? Looking for active opportunities in \"equilibrium\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121871493","media":"聪明投资者","summary":"2021年即将步入下半场，回顾上半年A股市场，虽然上证综指走势震荡，但整体呈现向上趋势。\n在2021年上半年策略报告中，诺亚财富曾指出：“2021年年初市场仍有走强机会，而随着货币政策逐步回归正常、市","content":"<p>2021 is about to enter the second half. Looking back at the A-share market in the first half of the year, although the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated, it showed an overall upward trend.</p><p>In the strategy report for the first half of 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOAH\">Noah Wealth</a>Zeng pointed out: \"The market still has opportunities to strengthen at the beginning of 2021, but as monetary policy gradually returns to normal and market financing pressure continues to increase, it will face repeated pressure from high volatility.\"</p><p>From the perspective of market trend, this judgment is more consistent with the final trend of the market.</p><p>Looking forward to the second half of 2021, how will the general trend of the capital market develop and in which areas will opportunities appear?</p><p>At the Noah Wealth Investment Strategy Conference for the Second Half of 2021 held on June 26, Dr. Xia Chun, Chief Economist of Noah Wealth, Jiang Qijia, Head of Noah Wealth's Major Asset Allocation Team, and Zhang Yihe, Head of Noah Wealth's Product Strategy Research Team, delivered keynote speeches respectively, sharing with investors Noah Wealth's prediction of the economic situation in the second half of the year and its views on major asset allocation strategies.</p><p>In the second half of 2021, the market will still show a volatile trend. After about a year of economic recovery, China and the United States may experience a slowdown in economic recovery momentum, while Europe and emerging markets still have an upward trend.</p><p>Regarding the current inflation risk, Noah Wealth believes that although the current inflation has brought certain difficulties to behavioral investment, the impact of inflation is only temporary, and these effects may be gradually resolved in the second half of the year. In addition, the impact of inflation on the consumer side is less than that on the production side.</p><p>Today, China is in a cycle of stable currency and tight credit, and there is a mismatch between demand and supply. In the future, the allocation logic of major asset classes will be different from the allocation logic under the typical recovery path (demand-driven recovery).</p><p><b>In terms of investment strategy, Noah Wealth has the following suggestions:</b></p><p>1.<b>Equity and bond balance, style balance</b></p><p>2.<b>Look at the duration strategy and appropriately increase the allocation of interest rate bonds; Continue to be optimistic about CTA's short and medium cycle trend following strategy</b></p><p>The following are the wonderful golden quotes and selected full-text records of Noah Wealth's investment strategy meeting in the second half of 2021:</p><p><b>Jiang Qijia: \"There are two major macroeconomic highlights in the second half of the year: first, can domestic demand take over external demand when exports fall from high levels; second, can the restoration of manufacturing and consumption in domestic demand hedge the decline of real estate and funds?\"</b></p><p><b>\"The credit spreads of low-grade credit bonds will continue to remain high and volatile</b>。<b>In terms of credit sinking strategies, the risks are still relatively high. \"</b></p><p><b>\"In the second half of the year, consumption will still be in a state of slow recovery. But with the gradual withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles, automobile consumption may weaken in the second half of the year.\"</b></p><p><b>Zhang Yihe: \"The current volatile market is conducive to actively managed stock funds making excess returns. In the selection of managers, we recommend choosing managers with solid research skills, balanced styles and strong stock mining capabilities.\"</b></p><p><b>\"In China, due to the high proportion of retail investors and the high deviation between price and value, it is conducive to quantitative strategies to make excess returns. The amount of alpha in China is relatively abundant.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The 10-year Treasury Bond yield has been flat or even downward in the near future, but the index representing commodity prices is going up during the same period. This deviation reflects a pessimistic view of the future economy. From the historical data point of view, once a deviation occurs, it often ends with both commodity prices and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling.\"</b></p><p><b>Xia Chun: \"Although the United States is facing a double fundamental deficit and its monetary policy is very loose, because its economic development is still better than other economies, we don't think the US dollar will depreciate quickly.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The velocity of money circulation will remain relatively low</b>。<b>The distribution of money is that a few people control a large amount of money, and a large amount of money is saved. Relatively few of them enter the real economy, and more of them go to the capital market. \"</b></p><p><b>\"Adhere to the'dumbbell strategy ', on the one hand, allocate leading technology stocks with strong profitability, and on the other hand, allocate those value and cyclical sectors that benefit from economic recovery.\"</b></p><p><b>Jiang Qijia: Interest rates may have room to decline</b></p><p><b>Gold price fluctuates downward</b></p><p><b>Focus on these sectors with structural opportunities</b></p><p>Hello audience friends, I am very happy to share with you Noah Wealth's investment strategy report for the second half of 2021. The theme of my speech today is macro and major assets.</p><p>This time, our theme is \"The wind is soft, the boat is steady, and the horse's hoof is light when the snow is exhausted\". The more straightforward meaning is,<b>The tone of asset allocation in the second half of the year is mainly balanced, which can be appropriately optimistic.</b></p><p><b>Let's summarize the two major macroeconomic highlights in the second half of the year: First, can domestic demand take over external demand when exports fall from high levels; Second, whether the recovery of manufacturing and consumption in terms of domestic demand can hedge the decline of real estate and funds.</b></p><p><b>● Real estate investment faces downward pressure</b></p><p>First of all, we start with the most basic<b>\"Troika of demand\"</b>(investment, consumption and exports) to extend.</p><p>Let's look at investment in fixed assets first. In the first half of the year, investment in fixed assets rebounded slightly, real estate investment was more resilient, and the manufacturing industry also rebounded slightly. In comparison, the infrastructure investment that undertook heavy responsibilities last year was in a state of marginal decline.</p><p>As real estate policies continue to tighten, we believe that<b>Real estate and infrastructure investment in the second half of the year may face downward pressure, and follow-up attention should be paid to manufacturing investment.</b></p><p>Since the third quarter of last year, the demand for loans in the manufacturing industry has continued to decline. We believe that there is a possibility of a decline in manufacturing investment in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>● Large consumption is recovering slowly, and automobile consumption may weaken</b></p><p>Consumption is the slowest to recover among the troika of demand, and the overall level is below the pre-epidemic level. Food and beverage investment was the strongest before the pandemic, but so far, its recovery is also the weakest.</p><p><b>In the second half of the year, consumption will still be in a slow recovery state.</b></p><p>The core reason for the weak consumption recovery is that under the repeated disturbance of the epidemic, the uncertainty about the follow-up has inhibited everyone's willingness to consume, and at the same time inhibited the consumption scenario.</p><p>But in the second half of the year, we should pay special attention to the main force responsible for the consumption rebound last year, namely automobile consumption. With the gradual withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles,<b>Auto consumption may weaken in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><b>● The total export volume is inconsistent with the global share</b></p><p>Next, let's look at the strongest exports. In the first half of the year, exports continued to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 10%, and the export situation was quite good.</p><p>But in the second half of the year, we may face<b>The race between the two forces of total exports and the global share of domestic exports,</b>The total volume of global exports may continue to rise, but our share may fluctuate downward.</p><p><b>● Demand is stronger than supply in the first half of the year, and some commodity prices will fall</b></p><p>After talking about demand, let's look at the supply situation. From the perspective of industrial added value, our production situation in the first half of the year was quite good.</p><p>However, from a month-on-month perspective, supply is in a state of month-on-month decline, and we expect that the decline may continue in the second half of the year.</p><p>As the production side weakens in the second half of the year, the boosting effect on PPI may gradually weaken.</p><p>Inflation in the first half of the year has been relatively divergent-<b>CPI is weak, but PPI is strong.</b></p><p>Although the core CPI rebounded slightly in the first quarter of this year, its growth rate is still at a very low level. But we have a higher PPI and very good production.</p><p>From the perspective of global supply and demand, there is still a certain mismatch.<b>Demand is stronger than supply</b>, which led to the situation that our PPI in May has risen to 9 year-on-year.</p><p>In the second half of the year, as global supply recovers, there are globally priced commodities, such as rebar, copper, crude oil, etc., and we think there will be a possibility of a decline.</p><p><b>We believe that PPI may slowly decline in the second half of the year.</b>We can also see that commodity prices have slowly begun to cool down.</p><p><b>● Focus on real estate post-cycle industries</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of housing prices, we believe that the trend of low volatility and low growth of housing prices has basically taken shape.</b></p><p>From the perspective of the supply side of real estate loans, with the introduction of the concentration management requirements of real estate loans, the tightening of bank loans is equivalent to putting a tight spell on real estate enterprises.</p><p>Is it true that the real estate industry is in a double-low trend, and there is no chance for investment in the real estate industry chain? We don't think so either. This year's real estate has seen a slow rise in the area of completed houses. We can continue to follow up<b>Pay attention to industries in the post-real estate cycle, such as property, home appliances, building materials, etc.</b></p><p><b>● The market structure is balanced in the second half of the year, and there are structural opportunities in these industries</b></p><p>The first half of this year was in a state of balance and shock. The industries that outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI All-Index were basically in a relatively average state. That is to say, almost half of the industries were able to outperform the CSI All-Index, which reflected the balance in the number of industries.</p><p>When the Shanghai Composite Index reached 6,124 points in 2007, the \"five golden flowers\" that took the lead at that time all returned to the Jianghu this year. Steel, mining, and chemical industries performed relatively well this year. However, the growth industries that performed well last year have shown a relatively differentiated situation this year.</p><p>In the first half of the year, from the perspective of consumption, medicine was stronger than food; From a technological perspective, technology-oriented sub-sectors such as electronics, innovative drugs, and biopharmaceuticals perform better, while industries such as TMT are relatively backward.</p><p><b>In the first half of the year, the overall increase of A shares was calm, but the style rotation was thrilling.</b></p><p>Will the market style continue in the second half of the year? Will there be a situation where the growth style strengthens again?</p><p>From the perspective of macro fundamentals, the small-cap style is relatively favorable; From the interest rate side, the short-term interest rate is relatively stable, but the long-term interest rate may have a downward process as the economic recovery weakens. From this appearance, we think that<b>In the second half of this year, the volatility of the growth style will be greater, and the overall performance of the growth style may not be as obvious as last year, and it is still a balanced pattern.</b></p><p>In terms of major industries,<b>For cyclical and technology industries, we feel that there are still structural opportunities with high cost performance</b>。</p><p>We have also seen that before, big stocks have always outperformed small stocks, but in the first half of this year, the performance of small-scale stocks is also slowly improving, so combined, we<b>Support the layout to second-tier blue chips</b>Conclusion of<b>, this PPT shows our suggestions for industry configuration in the second half of 2021</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22d4edb0dad640fd8c3476dedf490485\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the situation in the past few years, it is far better to participate in A-share investment by investing in funds than to speculate in stocks yourself. Judging from the situation in 2020, half of the stocks are actually falling, and only half of the stocks are rising.</p><p>However, partial stock funds that have been established for one year are basically rising. This year, investing in Public Offering of Fund is also stronger than investing in A shares.</p><p><b>● Interest rates may fall further</b></p><p>Let me briefly share it<b>Bond market in the second half of the year</b>Outlook. We are relatively optimistic about the bond market in the second half of this year.</p><p>Against the background of falling inflation, there may be room for further decline in the single interest rate level in the second half of the year. Compared with the historical situation, the long-term interest rate of the next 10-year Treasury Bond yield may still have room for 10-20 points to decline.</p><p>In the first half of this year, the downward trend of credit spreads of high-grade credit bonds was obvious, but low-grade credit bonds remained at the level of high credit spreads.</p><p>We believe that,<b>The credit spreads of low-grade credit bonds will remain high and fluctuate in the second half of the year</b>。 In terms of credit sinking strategy, the risk is still relatively large.</p><p><b>● Gold price fluctuates downward</b></p><p><b>Regarding the judgment of gold in the second half of the year, we believe that there will be a downward shock.</b></p><p>We can refer to the performance of gold prices during the Federal Reserve's taper tantrum in 2013. At the end of December 2013, although the Federal Reserve had not officially reduced its quantitative easing, or the scale of bond purchases, before that, the real interest rate had already shown a volatile upward trend. What followed was the result of the fluctuation and decline of gold prices.</p><p>Referring to the trend of 2013, although the rhythm may be somewhat different, in terms of the general trend, we think that this time the tapering panic of 2013 may also be repeated.</p><p>Finally, I will summarize the suggestions for the allocation of major assets in the second half of the year. Generally speaking, we<b>It is recommended that stocks, commodities, and real estate are all in neutral allocation, but it is relatively optimistic for bonds</b>。</p><p><b>Zhang Yihe: The current cycle is to \"stabilize currency and tighten credit\"</b></p><p><b>Focus on Active Equity Funds with Balanced Styles</b></p><p>Hello, Noah's investors, I'm Zhang Yihe from the Investment Consulting Department. Today, I bring you the product strategy for the second half of the year. My sharing will also be divided into three parts: long stocks, bonds, and quantitative strategies.</p><p>Looking back at the performance of different product strategies in the past, in 2020, stock long positions and commodity futures have made a lot of money, and the trend is relatively smooth. After the Spring Festival this year, with the adjustment of the A-share market, the profit-making effect is not as good as before.</p><p>So, how should we invest in the second half of the year?</p><p><b>● The current cycle is \"stable currency and tight credit\"</b></p><p>Famous<b>Merrill Lynch Clock</b>The model originated from a paper published by a researcher at Merrill Lynch in 2004. He divided the economic cycle into two dimensions: economic growth and inflation, corresponding to four economic cycles respectively-<b>Recovery cycle, overheating cycle, stagflation cycle and recession cycle.</b></p><p>Different cycles correspond to different types of investments, such as investing in stocks in the recovery cycle, investing in commodities in the overheating cycle, holding cash in the quality cycle, and holding bonds in the recession cycle.</p><p>We are now in a stage of economic growth, economic slowdown, and high inflation. Does it mean that many assets currently have no opportunity? The answer is definitely no.</p><p>The clock inspection effect of Merrill Lynch clock in the United States is good, but if it is used in China, it has certain problems. Because after 2012, the cyclicality of China's macroeconomic level has disappeared, and the GDP growth rate has been declining since 2012. If we look at the inflation cycle, after 2012, our CPI also lost its cyclical volatility.</p><p>Therefore, from this dimension, the guiding effect of Merrill Lynch clock gradually weakens.</p><p>Our research team, external brokerage investment research and other institutions are all using another set of theoretical basis-<b>Money plus credit model</b>。 It no longer divides the economic cycle from the two dimensions of economic growth and inflation, but from the two dimensions of looseness and tightness of money and credit.</p><p><b>Currently, we are in a cycle of stabilizing currency and tightening credit.</b>This cycle corresponds to the cycle of the Merrill Lynch clock similar to the cycle of stagflation.</p><p>At present, the rhythm of the People's Bank of China is not consistent with that of the Federal Reserve. In the past many years, the Federal Reserve has basically been the leader of global central banks. Now, the People's Bank of China is ahead of the Federal Reserve in tightening monetary policy. Basically, after May last year, we have already started to collect monetary policy.</p><p><b>● Choose an active manager with a balanced style and strong stock mining ability</b></p><p><b>Under the cycle of stable currency and tight credit, the performance of the stock market is often poor.</b>Is this no chance for stock bulls? Not really.</p><p>The rise and fall of stock funds in the past 16 years is different from the rise and fall of CSI 300 in the past 16 years.</p><p>In the past 16 years, the CSI 300 has risen for 9 years and fallen for 7 years, showing a mixed trend. However, stock funds have basically only lost money in 4 years in the past 16 years. These 4 years have certain characteristics, such as 2008, 2011, 2016 and 2018, which basically correspond to external risk shocks and Domestic central banks are rapidly tightening liquidity in the short term.</p><p><b>So don't be overly pessimistic when investing. Active fund managers can make excess returns in the market environment.</b></p><p>Under the market trend of skyrocketing and plummeting, actively managed funds do not have much advantage. If it's a mad cow, it may be better to just buy index funds.</p><p>When the market is in shock, actively managed stock funds can obtain obvious excess returns.</p><p>What are the sources of excess returns? Some managers can perform band operations through timing, some managers can choose the main strong styles in the market, and some managers have relatively strong stock selection capabilities and can choose strong stocks in a certain industry track.</p><p><b>The current volatile market is conducive to actively managed stock funds making excess returns.</b></p><p>There is no prominent main line in the recent market style. Whether it is a large-cap small-cap style or a value growth style, it is basically a relatively stable trend.</p><p><b>In the selection of managers, we recommend choosing managers with solid research skills, balanced style, and strong stock mining ability.</b></p><p><b>● The bond index is now rebounding, and it is recommended to deploy interest rate bonds, high-grade credit bonds, and partial debt hybrid funds</b></p><p>The performance of the bond market is relatively uncertain, and there are probabilities of bull market, bear market, and shock market. But we believe,<b>The bond market investment has a high winning rate, but the odds are not very certain.</b></p><p>Let's take a look at some recent indicators,<b>The 10-year Treasury Bond yield has been flat or even downward in the near future, but the index representing commodity prices has been rising during the same period. This deviation reflects a pessimistic view of the future economy. From the historical data point of view, once a divergence occurs, it often ends with both commodity prices and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling.</b></p><p>Therefore, we believe that the current bond market has certain allocation significance, especially the duration strategy.</p><p><b>For bond strategies, it is recommended to pay attention to interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds.</b></p><p>In recent months, the indexes of various bonds have experienced some phased rebounds. On the one hand, they have benefited from the upward trend of interest rate bonds brought about by the downward interest rate, and on the other hand, they have come from the coupon income of credit bonds. Therefore, the indexes of various bonds have performed relatively well recently.</p><p>But for the allocation of credit bonds, we still<b>It is recommended not to have too much credit sinking</b>, more inclined to make some high-grade credit bonds, because the debt risk in the market has not been lifted this year. For some bonds with relatively high risks, it is best for everyone to stay away from them to prevent the risk of stepping on thunder.</p><p>For stock-bond hybrid funds, we recommend<b>Layout debt-oriented hybrid funds</b>, because bonds are now more cost-effective.</p><p><b>● Recently, the commodity market is showing signs of adjustment, and we are optimistic about short-and medium-term trend tracking strategies</b></p><p>Finally, let's talk about quantitative strategies.</p><p>There are two meanings of allocating quantitative strategies. First, its position in the portfolio is difficult to be replaced by stocks and bonds. Adding assets with relatively low correlation into the portfolio is conducive to improving the risk-return ratio of the portfolio.</p><p>However, CTA strategy or market neutral strategy has relatively low correlation with traditional stock strategy and bond strategy. Adding them to the combination will have a very benign effect.</p><p>In addition, when the stock market fluctuates, the performance of CTA-managed futures categories is basically relatively stable, and some tail downside risks can also be hedged in the portfolio.</p><p><b>In China, there is still a relatively good soil for making excess returns.</b>If compared horizontally with quantification in the United States, it is very difficult for quantitative managers in the United States to make excess returns now, because the market is very mature and there are many institutional investors, so it is basically difficult for the market to make excess returns through quantitative strategies, whether it is machine learning or multi-factor.</p><p><b>In China, due to the high proportion of retail investors and the high deviation between price and value, it is conducive to quantitative strategies to make excess returns. The amount of alpha in China is relatively abundant.</b></p><p>Looking forward to the second half of the year, we believe that the mid-to long-term trend following strategy still has opportunities: if commodity prices reverse, it will be beneficial to the mid-to long-term tracking strategy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has shown signs of turning hawkish recently. As the Federal Reserve turns hawkish and relevant domestic authorities continue to suppress commodity prices,<b>Recently, there have been some signs of adjustment in the commodity market.</b></p><p>If the pace of the Fed's monetary policy shift in the second half of the year is determined, the commodity market may usher in a trend reversal. At that time, there will be a very good performance stage for the medium and long-term trend following strategy.</p><p>But at present we may be more<b>Optimistic about short-and medium-term trend tracking strategies,</b>This type of strategy relies more on the volatility of the futures market. Recently, the volatility of the futures market is at a very high position, which is very conducive to short-to medium-term and even high-frequency CTA strategies to make excess returns.</p><p><b>You can refer to the configuration suggestions in the table.</b></p><p><b>Xia Chun: RMB is relatively stable against the US dollar</b></p><p><b>Europe and emerging markets have opportunities</b></p><p><b>Future returns lie in earnings, not valuation</b></p><p><b>Focus on Value, Small Cap Stocks</b></p><p>Hello friends, today I would like to share with you our outlook for overseas macroeconomics and investment strategies in the second half of 2021.</p><p>Let's start by reviewing some of our views in the first half of 2021. We believe that,<b>The economic recovery and loose monetary policy in the first half of the year are very conducive to risky assets.</b></p><p>The main disturbance to the market in the first half of this year was inflation, but<b>Inflation is more obvious on the production side, but the impact on the consumption side is not obvious.</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, K-shaped reversals occurred within various assets, and K-shaped reversals are also an important keyword for investment strategies in the first half of 2021.</p><p>In the second half of the year, the change is about to begin, and we have to understand the change.</p><p><b>● Economic recovery momentum in some countries has slowed down</b></p><p>According to the macro and market trends in the second half of the year, the United States may face a slowdown in economic recovery momentum in the second and third quarters, and this phenomenon may occur in China in the second quarter.</p><p>On the contrary, in other places, such as European markets and emerging markets, their economic recovery is relatively moderate, so these places still maintain an upward trend.</p><p>On the whole,<b>Global economic activity conditions may be relatively stable, and there will be no huge rebound, and may remain stable or even relatively downward in the future</b>。</p><p>On the other hand,<b>It is more likely that global financial conditions will tighten in the second half of the year. Referring to history, the reversal of liquidity will have a relatively obvious impact on the market.</b></p><p>Inflation in the United States has increased more than expected in the past two months, and the Federal Reserve has also begun to become cautious and take inflation seriously, and will not let inflation run beyond expectations for too long. At the beginning of next year, the United States will reduce its bond buying actions.</p><p>China has also tightened its financial conditions. The data of M2 and social financing conditions have all fallen from their highs recently, which will make the market usher in relatively big changes in the second half of the year, and it is likely to cause some turmoil.</p><p>The current global macro situation can also be seen from some indicators. The index represented by the manufacturing industry has fallen from its high point. In addition to the manufacturing index, the earnings of the global market have also begun to gradually decline.</p><p>There is still a certain gap between vaccination in Europe and emerging markets and that in the United States and the United Kingdom, which is reflected in the backwardness of manufacturing production in specific production.</p><p><b>In the second half of the year, the United States and the United Kingdom may complete their vaccination plans, and the economy will undergo a certain transformation. For example, the manufacturing industry was very good in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the service industry may rise, and the strong demand of the manufacturing industry in the first half of the year slowed down in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>But there is still an ongoing vaccination process in Europe and emerging markets and a process of economic recovery.</p><p>Overall,<b>The global economic growth rate will basically fall from the high point in the second half of 2021 or early 2022, and the economic growth gap between emerging markets and developed countries will gradually shorten, that is, emerging markets will catch up with developed countries.</b></p><p><b>● Inflation is temporary and the velocity of money remains low</b></p><p>On the other hand, a particularly big factor affecting the market is inflation.</p><p>In 2011, the CPI in the United States rose rapidly at that time, but this upward process was only temporary, and it began to gradually decline in the second half of the year.</p><p>In the past, an important force driving inflation was the money supply. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 money supply in the United States has gradually declined from a high point.</p><p>After future economic normalization, we believe that<b>The velocity of money circulation will remain relatively low</b>。<b>The distribution of money is that a few people master a large amount of money, and a large amount of money is saved. Relatively few of them enter the real economy, and more of them go to the capital market.</b></p><p>The main uncertainty is that variants of the virus may bring new shocks to production and supply. However, once inflation increases more than expected, the Fed will still take decisive action. Therefore, I don't think the market needs to worry yet.</p><p><b>● Making money by valuation is \"outdated\", and profits will determine future returns</b></p><p>From different countries and regions,<b>Last year's returns mainly came from valuation changes</b>, last year's profits were basically negative, but based on forward-looking judgments, many regions still achieved good returns in 2020.</p><p>However, in the first half of this year, although the return was basically positive, it was mainly driven by changes in profits. Changes in valuation are basically in a contraction stage in 2021, and are likely to continue in the second half of the year, unless the valuation adjustment makes the company's valuation significantly lower than the original situation.</p><p>Most valuations have expanded greatly last year.<b>Next, earnings will determine the performance of future returns of listed companies in different countries.</b></p><p><b>● Pay attention to the development of emerging markets</b></p><p>In the process of paying attention to profits, we found that the market will be relatively more optimistic about emerging markets, Europe and Asia-Pacific, so we must capture the future growth opportunities brought by profits.</p><p>In the past period of time, the United States has shone its own way, but<b>In the future, it will become more difficult for listed companies in the United States to create more unexpected results again.</b></p><p>In emerging markets and Europe, at present, from the perspective of profitability alone, they are more likely to perform better, and the gap between year-on-year changes in profitability is relatively larger.</p><p>In the process of economic recovery, the traditional cyclical sector and the growth sector will have relatively different performances. In the past low economic growth and low interest rate environment, the growth sector performed better, while the value cycle sector was relatively backward; but<b>In the process of economic recovery, inflation is slowly heating up, and the cyclical sector will perform better than the growth sector.</b></p><p>Compared with Europe and emerging markets, the cyclical sector of the S&P 500 accounts for a relatively small proportion, and the growth sector accounts for a relatively high proportion. Therefore, in the future, from the perspective of profit performance, cyclical sector, and valuation,<b>We think there are more opportunities in the European market</b>。</p><p><b>● Value outperforms growth, small-cap outperforms large-cap</b></p><p>From the perspective of global value growth, there have been two big pullback/retracement in the past, one was the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000, and the other was the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008.</p><p>It has been almost more than a year since the epidemic last year. Now the performance of value is obviously better than growth, and this momentum can still be maintained within two years:<b>Value outperforms growth, and small caps outperform large caps.</b></p><p>Understanding this, it is easy to capture very good investment opportunities. The market fell to a low point in March last year. At that time, everyone considered the value of growth. With the economic recovery and the news that vaccines are effective, the market began to enter the value sector, and the performance of small caps gradually became obvious.</p><p><b>After these two big plunges in history, the situation that the small market is better than the large market, and the value is better than the growth has been maintained for two years.</b></p><p>Now, this possibility still exists. At present, the global economy has not yet entered a state of complete normalization. Once it is completely normalized, especially under certain inflationary pressure, the performance of value is better than growth, which is supported by a long historical data.</p><p>Of course, there are also some companies with very stable profits in the broader market, and they may perform better than large and small companies.</p><p><b>● The US dollar will not depreciate rapidly, and the RMB will perform steadily</b></p><p>On the issue of the US dollar, our view is that although the United States faces double fundamental deficits and its monetary policy is very loose, its economic development is still better than other economies, so we believe that<b>The dollar will not depreciate quickly</b>。</p><p>Regarding the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, we think it will remain between 6.3 and 6.7 in the second half of the year.</p><p>There are many factors driving the weakening of the U.S. dollar, but on the other hand, the U.S. economy is better than other economies, the yield of U.S. bonds is relatively higher than that of other developed economies, and the Federal Reserve is likely to reduce bond purchases in the second half of the year. These have also provided certain support to the U.S. dollar.</p><p>There are certain factors for the strengthening of the RMB, including the very good performance of China's economy, the purchase of Chinese assets by foreign capital, and the continuous inflow of stock and bond funds. But generally speaking, a strong RMB will also bring pressure on exports, and the dual-circulation policy will encounter certain obstacles.</p><p><b>Although the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, compared with some other currencies, there is basically no obvious change.</b></p><p>The central bank is still<b>Performance of pursuing the relative stability of RMB relative to a basket of currencies</b>, is not a deliberate pursuit of appreciation and depreciation against the US dollar.</p><p><b>In the current environment, we recommend that everyone adhere to the \"dumbbell strategy\", on the one hand, allocate leading technology stocks with strong profitability, and on the other hand, allocate value and cyclical sectors that benefit from economic recovery.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the correct investment posture in the second half of the year? Looking for active opportunities in \"equilibrium\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the correct investment posture in the second half of the year? Looking for active opportunities in \"equilibrium\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1072656223\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">聪明投资者 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2021 is about to enter the second half. Looking back at the A-share market in the first half of the year, although the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated, it showed an overall upward trend.</p><p>In the strategy report for the first half of 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOAH\">Noah Wealth</a>Zeng pointed out: \"The market still has opportunities to strengthen at the beginning of 2021, but as monetary policy gradually returns to normal and market financing pressure continues to increase, it will face repeated pressure from high volatility.\"</p><p>From the perspective of market trend, this judgment is more consistent with the final trend of the market.</p><p>Looking forward to the second half of 2021, how will the general trend of the capital market develop and in which areas will opportunities appear?</p><p>At the Noah Wealth Investment Strategy Conference for the Second Half of 2021 held on June 26, Dr. Xia Chun, Chief Economist of Noah Wealth, Jiang Qijia, Head of Noah Wealth's Major Asset Allocation Team, and Zhang Yihe, Head of Noah Wealth's Product Strategy Research Team, delivered keynote speeches respectively, sharing with investors Noah Wealth's prediction of the economic situation in the second half of the year and its views on major asset allocation strategies.</p><p>In the second half of 2021, the market will still show a volatile trend. After about a year of economic recovery, China and the United States may experience a slowdown in economic recovery momentum, while Europe and emerging markets still have an upward trend.</p><p>Regarding the current inflation risk, Noah Wealth believes that although the current inflation has brought certain difficulties to behavioral investment, the impact of inflation is only temporary, and these effects may be gradually resolved in the second half of the year. In addition, the impact of inflation on the consumer side is less than that on the production side.</p><p>Today, China is in a cycle of stable currency and tight credit, and there is a mismatch between demand and supply. In the future, the allocation logic of major asset classes will be different from the allocation logic under the typical recovery path (demand-driven recovery).</p><p><b>In terms of investment strategy, Noah Wealth has the following suggestions:</b></p><p>1.<b>Equity and bond balance, style balance</b></p><p>2.<b>Look at the duration strategy and appropriately increase the allocation of interest rate bonds; Continue to be optimistic about CTA's short and medium cycle trend following strategy</b></p><p>The following are the wonderful golden quotes and selected full-text records of Noah Wealth's investment strategy meeting in the second half of 2021:</p><p><b>Jiang Qijia: \"There are two major macroeconomic highlights in the second half of the year: first, can domestic demand take over external demand when exports fall from high levels; second, can the restoration of manufacturing and consumption in domestic demand hedge the decline of real estate and funds?\"</b></p><p><b>\"The credit spreads of low-grade credit bonds will continue to remain high and volatile</b>。<b>In terms of credit sinking strategies, the risks are still relatively high. \"</b></p><p><b>\"In the second half of the year, consumption will still be in a state of slow recovery. But with the gradual withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles, automobile consumption may weaken in the second half of the year.\"</b></p><p><b>Zhang Yihe: \"The current volatile market is conducive to actively managed stock funds making excess returns. In the selection of managers, we recommend choosing managers with solid research skills, balanced styles and strong stock mining capabilities.\"</b></p><p><b>\"In China, due to the high proportion of retail investors and the high deviation between price and value, it is conducive to quantitative strategies to make excess returns. The amount of alpha in China is relatively abundant.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The 10-year Treasury Bond yield has been flat or even downward in the near future, but the index representing commodity prices is going up during the same period. This deviation reflects a pessimistic view of the future economy. From the historical data point of view, once a deviation occurs, it often ends with both commodity prices and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling.\"</b></p><p><b>Xia Chun: \"Although the United States is facing a double fundamental deficit and its monetary policy is very loose, because its economic development is still better than other economies, we don't think the US dollar will depreciate quickly.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The velocity of money circulation will remain relatively low</b>。<b>The distribution of money is that a few people control a large amount of money, and a large amount of money is saved. Relatively few of them enter the real economy, and more of them go to the capital market. \"</b></p><p><b>\"Adhere to the'dumbbell strategy ', on the one hand, allocate leading technology stocks with strong profitability, and on the other hand, allocate those value and cyclical sectors that benefit from economic recovery.\"</b></p><p><b>Jiang Qijia: Interest rates may have room to decline</b></p><p><b>Gold price fluctuates downward</b></p><p><b>Focus on these sectors with structural opportunities</b></p><p>Hello audience friends, I am very happy to share with you Noah Wealth's investment strategy report for the second half of 2021. The theme of my speech today is macro and major assets.</p><p>This time, our theme is \"The wind is soft, the boat is steady, and the horse's hoof is light when the snow is exhausted\". The more straightforward meaning is,<b>The tone of asset allocation in the second half of the year is mainly balanced, which can be appropriately optimistic.</b></p><p><b>Let's summarize the two major macroeconomic highlights in the second half of the year: First, can domestic demand take over external demand when exports fall from high levels; Second, whether the recovery of manufacturing and consumption in terms of domestic demand can hedge the decline of real estate and funds.</b></p><p><b>● Real estate investment faces downward pressure</b></p><p>First of all, we start with the most basic<b>\"Troika of demand\"</b>(investment, consumption and exports) to extend.</p><p>Let's look at investment in fixed assets first. In the first half of the year, investment in fixed assets rebounded slightly, real estate investment was more resilient, and the manufacturing industry also rebounded slightly. In comparison, the infrastructure investment that undertook heavy responsibilities last year was in a state of marginal decline.</p><p>As real estate policies continue to tighten, we believe that<b>Real estate and infrastructure investment in the second half of the year may face downward pressure, and follow-up attention should be paid to manufacturing investment.</b></p><p>Since the third quarter of last year, the demand for loans in the manufacturing industry has continued to decline. We believe that there is a possibility of a decline in manufacturing investment in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>● Large consumption is recovering slowly, and automobile consumption may weaken</b></p><p>Consumption is the slowest to recover among the troika of demand, and the overall level is below the pre-epidemic level. Food and beverage investment was the strongest before the pandemic, but so far, its recovery is also the weakest.</p><p><b>In the second half of the year, consumption will still be in a slow recovery state.</b></p><p>The core reason for the weak consumption recovery is that under the repeated disturbance of the epidemic, the uncertainty about the follow-up has inhibited everyone's willingness to consume, and at the same time inhibited the consumption scenario.</p><p>But in the second half of the year, we should pay special attention to the main force responsible for the consumption rebound last year, namely automobile consumption. With the gradual withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles,<b>Auto consumption may weaken in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><b>● The total export volume is inconsistent with the global share</b></p><p>Next, let's look at the strongest exports. In the first half of the year, exports continued to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 10%, and the export situation was quite good.</p><p>But in the second half of the year, we may face<b>The race between the two forces of total exports and the global share of domestic exports,</b>The total volume of global exports may continue to rise, but our share may fluctuate downward.</p><p><b>● Demand is stronger than supply in the first half of the year, and some commodity prices will fall</b></p><p>After talking about demand, let's look at the supply situation. From the perspective of industrial added value, our production situation in the first half of the year was quite good.</p><p>However, from a month-on-month perspective, supply is in a state of month-on-month decline, and we expect that the decline may continue in the second half of the year.</p><p>As the production side weakens in the second half of the year, the boosting effect on PPI may gradually weaken.</p><p>Inflation in the first half of the year has been relatively divergent-<b>CPI is weak, but PPI is strong.</b></p><p>Although the core CPI rebounded slightly in the first quarter of this year, its growth rate is still at a very low level. But we have a higher PPI and very good production.</p><p>From the perspective of global supply and demand, there is still a certain mismatch.<b>Demand is stronger than supply</b>, which led to the situation that our PPI in May has risen to 9 year-on-year.</p><p>In the second half of the year, as global supply recovers, there are globally priced commodities, such as rebar, copper, crude oil, etc., and we think there will be a possibility of a decline.</p><p><b>We believe that PPI may slowly decline in the second half of the year.</b>We can also see that commodity prices have slowly begun to cool down.</p><p><b>● Focus on real estate post-cycle industries</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of housing prices, we believe that the trend of low volatility and low growth of housing prices has basically taken shape.</b></p><p>From the perspective of the supply side of real estate loans, with the introduction of the concentration management requirements of real estate loans, the tightening of bank loans is equivalent to putting a tight spell on real estate enterprises.</p><p>Is it true that the real estate industry is in a double-low trend, and there is no chance for investment in the real estate industry chain? We don't think so either. This year's real estate has seen a slow rise in the area of completed houses. We can continue to follow up<b>Pay attention to industries in the post-real estate cycle, such as property, home appliances, building materials, etc.</b></p><p><b>● The market structure is balanced in the second half of the year, and there are structural opportunities in these industries</b></p><p>The first half of this year was in a state of balance and shock. The industries that outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI All-Index were basically in a relatively average state. That is to say, almost half of the industries were able to outperform the CSI All-Index, which reflected the balance in the number of industries.</p><p>When the Shanghai Composite Index reached 6,124 points in 2007, the \"five golden flowers\" that took the lead at that time all returned to the Jianghu this year. Steel, mining, and chemical industries performed relatively well this year. However, the growth industries that performed well last year have shown a relatively differentiated situation this year.</p><p>In the first half of the year, from the perspective of consumption, medicine was stronger than food; From a technological perspective, technology-oriented sub-sectors such as electronics, innovative drugs, and biopharmaceuticals perform better, while industries such as TMT are relatively backward.</p><p><b>In the first half of the year, the overall increase of A shares was calm, but the style rotation was thrilling.</b></p><p>Will the market style continue in the second half of the year? Will there be a situation where the growth style strengthens again?</p><p>From the perspective of macro fundamentals, the small-cap style is relatively favorable; From the interest rate side, the short-term interest rate is relatively stable, but the long-term interest rate may have a downward process as the economic recovery weakens. From this appearance, we think that<b>In the second half of this year, the volatility of the growth style will be greater, and the overall performance of the growth style may not be as obvious as last year, and it is still a balanced pattern.</b></p><p>In terms of major industries,<b>For cyclical and technology industries, we feel that there are still structural opportunities with high cost performance</b>。</p><p>We have also seen that before, big stocks have always outperformed small stocks, but in the first half of this year, the performance of small-scale stocks is also slowly improving, so combined, we<b>Support the layout to second-tier blue chips</b>Conclusion of<b>, this PPT shows our suggestions for industry configuration in the second half of 2021</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22d4edb0dad640fd8c3476dedf490485\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the situation in the past few years, it is far better to participate in A-share investment by investing in funds than to speculate in stocks yourself. Judging from the situation in 2020, half of the stocks are actually falling, and only half of the stocks are rising.</p><p>However, partial stock funds that have been established for one year are basically rising. This year, investing in Public Offering of Fund is also stronger than investing in A shares.</p><p><b>● Interest rates may fall further</b></p><p>Let me briefly share it<b>Bond market in the second half of the year</b>Outlook. We are relatively optimistic about the bond market in the second half of this year.</p><p>Against the background of falling inflation, there may be room for further decline in the single interest rate level in the second half of the year. Compared with the historical situation, the long-term interest rate of the next 10-year Treasury Bond yield may still have room for 10-20 points to decline.</p><p>In the first half of this year, the downward trend of credit spreads of high-grade credit bonds was obvious, but low-grade credit bonds remained at the level of high credit spreads.</p><p>We believe that,<b>The credit spreads of low-grade credit bonds will remain high and fluctuate in the second half of the year</b>。 In terms of credit sinking strategy, the risk is still relatively large.</p><p><b>● Gold price fluctuates downward</b></p><p><b>Regarding the judgment of gold in the second half of the year, we believe that there will be a downward shock.</b></p><p>We can refer to the performance of gold prices during the Federal Reserve's taper tantrum in 2013. At the end of December 2013, although the Federal Reserve had not officially reduced its quantitative easing, or the scale of bond purchases, before that, the real interest rate had already shown a volatile upward trend. What followed was the result of the fluctuation and decline of gold prices.</p><p>Referring to the trend of 2013, although the rhythm may be somewhat different, in terms of the general trend, we think that this time the tapering panic of 2013 may also be repeated.</p><p>Finally, I will summarize the suggestions for the allocation of major assets in the second half of the year. Generally speaking, we<b>It is recommended that stocks, commodities, and real estate are all in neutral allocation, but it is relatively optimistic for bonds</b>。</p><p><b>Zhang Yihe: The current cycle is to \"stabilize currency and tighten credit\"</b></p><p><b>Focus on Active Equity Funds with Balanced Styles</b></p><p>Hello, Noah's investors, I'm Zhang Yihe from the Investment Consulting Department. Today, I bring you the product strategy for the second half of the year. My sharing will also be divided into three parts: long stocks, bonds, and quantitative strategies.</p><p>Looking back at the performance of different product strategies in the past, in 2020, stock long positions and commodity futures have made a lot of money, and the trend is relatively smooth. After the Spring Festival this year, with the adjustment of the A-share market, the profit-making effect is not as good as before.</p><p>So, how should we invest in the second half of the year?</p><p><b>● The current cycle is \"stable currency and tight credit\"</b></p><p>Famous<b>Merrill Lynch Clock</b>The model originated from a paper published by a researcher at Merrill Lynch in 2004. He divided the economic cycle into two dimensions: economic growth and inflation, corresponding to four economic cycles respectively-<b>Recovery cycle, overheating cycle, stagflation cycle and recession cycle.</b></p><p>Different cycles correspond to different types of investments, such as investing in stocks in the recovery cycle, investing in commodities in the overheating cycle, holding cash in the quality cycle, and holding bonds in the recession cycle.</p><p>We are now in a stage of economic growth, economic slowdown, and high inflation. Does it mean that many assets currently have no opportunity? The answer is definitely no.</p><p>The clock inspection effect of Merrill Lynch clock in the United States is good, but if it is used in China, it has certain problems. Because after 2012, the cyclicality of China's macroeconomic level has disappeared, and the GDP growth rate has been declining since 2012. If we look at the inflation cycle, after 2012, our CPI also lost its cyclical volatility.</p><p>Therefore, from this dimension, the guiding effect of Merrill Lynch clock gradually weakens.</p><p>Our research team, external brokerage investment research and other institutions are all using another set of theoretical basis-<b>Money plus credit model</b>。 It no longer divides the economic cycle from the two dimensions of economic growth and inflation, but from the two dimensions of looseness and tightness of money and credit.</p><p><b>Currently, we are in a cycle of stabilizing currency and tightening credit.</b>This cycle corresponds to the cycle of the Merrill Lynch clock similar to the cycle of stagflation.</p><p>At present, the rhythm of the People's Bank of China is not consistent with that of the Federal Reserve. In the past many years, the Federal Reserve has basically been the leader of global central banks. Now, the People's Bank of China is ahead of the Federal Reserve in tightening monetary policy. Basically, after May last year, we have already started to collect monetary policy.</p><p><b>● Choose an active manager with a balanced style and strong stock mining ability</b></p><p><b>Under the cycle of stable currency and tight credit, the performance of the stock market is often poor.</b>Is this no chance for stock bulls? Not really.</p><p>The rise and fall of stock funds in the past 16 years is different from the rise and fall of CSI 300 in the past 16 years.</p><p>In the past 16 years, the CSI 300 has risen for 9 years and fallen for 7 years, showing a mixed trend. However, stock funds have basically only lost money in 4 years in the past 16 years. These 4 years have certain characteristics, such as 2008, 2011, 2016 and 2018, which basically correspond to external risk shocks and Domestic central banks are rapidly tightening liquidity in the short term.</p><p><b>So don't be overly pessimistic when investing. Active fund managers can make excess returns in the market environment.</b></p><p>Under the market trend of skyrocketing and plummeting, actively managed funds do not have much advantage. If it's a mad cow, it may be better to just buy index funds.</p><p>When the market is in shock, actively managed stock funds can obtain obvious excess returns.</p><p>What are the sources of excess returns? Some managers can perform band operations through timing, some managers can choose the main strong styles in the market, and some managers have relatively strong stock selection capabilities and can choose strong stocks in a certain industry track.</p><p><b>The current volatile market is conducive to actively managed stock funds making excess returns.</b></p><p>There is no prominent main line in the recent market style. Whether it is a large-cap small-cap style or a value growth style, it is basically a relatively stable trend.</p><p><b>In the selection of managers, we recommend choosing managers with solid research skills, balanced style, and strong stock mining ability.</b></p><p><b>● The bond index is now rebounding, and it is recommended to deploy interest rate bonds, high-grade credit bonds, and partial debt hybrid funds</b></p><p>The performance of the bond market is relatively uncertain, and there are probabilities of bull market, bear market, and shock market. But we believe,<b>The bond market investment has a high winning rate, but the odds are not very certain.</b></p><p>Let's take a look at some recent indicators,<b>The 10-year Treasury Bond yield has been flat or even downward in the near future, but the index representing commodity prices has been rising during the same period. This deviation reflects a pessimistic view of the future economy. From the historical data point of view, once a divergence occurs, it often ends with both commodity prices and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling.</b></p><p>Therefore, we believe that the current bond market has certain allocation significance, especially the duration strategy.</p><p><b>For bond strategies, it is recommended to pay attention to interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds.</b></p><p>In recent months, the indexes of various bonds have experienced some phased rebounds. On the one hand, they have benefited from the upward trend of interest rate bonds brought about by the downward interest rate, and on the other hand, they have come from the coupon income of credit bonds. Therefore, the indexes of various bonds have performed relatively well recently.</p><p>But for the allocation of credit bonds, we still<b>It is recommended not to have too much credit sinking</b>, more inclined to make some high-grade credit bonds, because the debt risk in the market has not been lifted this year. For some bonds with relatively high risks, it is best for everyone to stay away from them to prevent the risk of stepping on thunder.</p><p>For stock-bond hybrid funds, we recommend<b>Layout debt-oriented hybrid funds</b>, because bonds are now more cost-effective.</p><p><b>● Recently, the commodity market is showing signs of adjustment, and we are optimistic about short-and medium-term trend tracking strategies</b></p><p>Finally, let's talk about quantitative strategies.</p><p>There are two meanings of allocating quantitative strategies. First, its position in the portfolio is difficult to be replaced by stocks and bonds. Adding assets with relatively low correlation into the portfolio is conducive to improving the risk-return ratio of the portfolio.</p><p>However, CTA strategy or market neutral strategy has relatively low correlation with traditional stock strategy and bond strategy. Adding them to the combination will have a very benign effect.</p><p>In addition, when the stock market fluctuates, the performance of CTA-managed futures categories is basically relatively stable, and some tail downside risks can also be hedged in the portfolio.</p><p><b>In China, there is still a relatively good soil for making excess returns.</b>If compared horizontally with quantification in the United States, it is very difficult for quantitative managers in the United States to make excess returns now, because the market is very mature and there are many institutional investors, so it is basically difficult for the market to make excess returns through quantitative strategies, whether it is machine learning or multi-factor.</p><p><b>In China, due to the high proportion of retail investors and the high deviation between price and value, it is conducive to quantitative strategies to make excess returns. The amount of alpha in China is relatively abundant.</b></p><p>Looking forward to the second half of the year, we believe that the mid-to long-term trend following strategy still has opportunities: if commodity prices reverse, it will be beneficial to the mid-to long-term tracking strategy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has shown signs of turning hawkish recently. As the Federal Reserve turns hawkish and relevant domestic authorities continue to suppress commodity prices,<b>Recently, there have been some signs of adjustment in the commodity market.</b></p><p>If the pace of the Fed's monetary policy shift in the second half of the year is determined, the commodity market may usher in a trend reversal. At that time, there will be a very good performance stage for the medium and long-term trend following strategy.</p><p>But at present we may be more<b>Optimistic about short-and medium-term trend tracking strategies,</b>This type of strategy relies more on the volatility of the futures market. Recently, the volatility of the futures market is at a very high position, which is very conducive to short-to medium-term and even high-frequency CTA strategies to make excess returns.</p><p><b>You can refer to the configuration suggestions in the table.</b></p><p><b>Xia Chun: RMB is relatively stable against the US dollar</b></p><p><b>Europe and emerging markets have opportunities</b></p><p><b>Future returns lie in earnings, not valuation</b></p><p><b>Focus on Value, Small Cap Stocks</b></p><p>Hello friends, today I would like to share with you our outlook for overseas macroeconomics and investment strategies in the second half of 2021.</p><p>Let's start by reviewing some of our views in the first half of 2021. We believe that,<b>The economic recovery and loose monetary policy in the first half of the year are very conducive to risky assets.</b></p><p>The main disturbance to the market in the first half of this year was inflation, but<b>Inflation is more obvious on the production side, but the impact on the consumption side is not obvious.</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, K-shaped reversals occurred within various assets, and K-shaped reversals are also an important keyword for investment strategies in the first half of 2021.</p><p>In the second half of the year, the change is about to begin, and we have to understand the change.</p><p><b>● Economic recovery momentum in some countries has slowed down</b></p><p>According to the macro and market trends in the second half of the year, the United States may face a slowdown in economic recovery momentum in the second and third quarters, and this phenomenon may occur in China in the second quarter.</p><p>On the contrary, in other places, such as European markets and emerging markets, their economic recovery is relatively moderate, so these places still maintain an upward trend.</p><p>On the whole,<b>Global economic activity conditions may be relatively stable, and there will be no huge rebound, and may remain stable or even relatively downward in the future</b>。</p><p>On the other hand,<b>It is more likely that global financial conditions will tighten in the second half of the year. Referring to history, the reversal of liquidity will have a relatively obvious impact on the market.</b></p><p>Inflation in the United States has increased more than expected in the past two months, and the Federal Reserve has also begun to become cautious and take inflation seriously, and will not let inflation run beyond expectations for too long. At the beginning of next year, the United States will reduce its bond buying actions.</p><p>China has also tightened its financial conditions. The data of M2 and social financing conditions have all fallen from their highs recently, which will make the market usher in relatively big changes in the second half of the year, and it is likely to cause some turmoil.</p><p>The current global macro situation can also be seen from some indicators. The index represented by the manufacturing industry has fallen from its high point. In addition to the manufacturing index, the earnings of the global market have also begun to gradually decline.</p><p>There is still a certain gap between vaccination in Europe and emerging markets and that in the United States and the United Kingdom, which is reflected in the backwardness of manufacturing production in specific production.</p><p><b>In the second half of the year, the United States and the United Kingdom may complete their vaccination plans, and the economy will undergo a certain transformation. For example, the manufacturing industry was very good in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the service industry may rise, and the strong demand of the manufacturing industry in the first half of the year slowed down in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>But there is still an ongoing vaccination process in Europe and emerging markets and a process of economic recovery.</p><p>Overall,<b>The global economic growth rate will basically fall from the high point in the second half of 2021 or early 2022, and the economic growth gap between emerging markets and developed countries will gradually shorten, that is, emerging markets will catch up with developed countries.</b></p><p><b>● Inflation is temporary and the velocity of money remains low</b></p><p>On the other hand, a particularly big factor affecting the market is inflation.</p><p>In 2011, the CPI in the United States rose rapidly at that time, but this upward process was only temporary, and it began to gradually decline in the second half of the year.</p><p>In the past, an important force driving inflation was the money supply. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 money supply in the United States has gradually declined from a high point.</p><p>After future economic normalization, we believe that<b>The velocity of money circulation will remain relatively low</b>。<b>The distribution of money is that a few people master a large amount of money, and a large amount of money is saved. Relatively few of them enter the real economy, and more of them go to the capital market.</b></p><p>The main uncertainty is that variants of the virus may bring new shocks to production and supply. However, once inflation increases more than expected, the Fed will still take decisive action. Therefore, I don't think the market needs to worry yet.</p><p><b>● Making money by valuation is \"outdated\", and profits will determine future returns</b></p><p>From different countries and regions,<b>Last year's returns mainly came from valuation changes</b>, last year's profits were basically negative, but based on forward-looking judgments, many regions still achieved good returns in 2020.</p><p>However, in the first half of this year, although the return was basically positive, it was mainly driven by changes in profits. Changes in valuation are basically in a contraction stage in 2021, and are likely to continue in the second half of the year, unless the valuation adjustment makes the company's valuation significantly lower than the original situation.</p><p>Most valuations have expanded greatly last year.<b>Next, earnings will determine the performance of future returns of listed companies in different countries.</b></p><p><b>● Pay attention to the development of emerging markets</b></p><p>In the process of paying attention to profits, we found that the market will be relatively more optimistic about emerging markets, Europe and Asia-Pacific, so we must capture the future growth opportunities brought by profits.</p><p>In the past period of time, the United States has shone its own way, but<b>In the future, it will become more difficult for listed companies in the United States to create more unexpected results again.</b></p><p>In emerging markets and Europe, at present, from the perspective of profitability alone, they are more likely to perform better, and the gap between year-on-year changes in profitability is relatively larger.</p><p>In the process of economic recovery, the traditional cyclical sector and the growth sector will have relatively different performances. In the past low economic growth and low interest rate environment, the growth sector performed better, while the value cycle sector was relatively backward; but<b>In the process of economic recovery, inflation is slowly heating up, and the cyclical sector will perform better than the growth sector.</b></p><p>Compared with Europe and emerging markets, the cyclical sector of the S&P 500 accounts for a relatively small proportion, and the growth sector accounts for a relatively high proportion. Therefore, in the future, from the perspective of profit performance, cyclical sector, and valuation,<b>We think there are more opportunities in the European market</b>。</p><p><b>● Value outperforms growth, small-cap outperforms large-cap</b></p><p>From the perspective of global value growth, there have been two big pullback/retracement in the past, one was the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000, and the other was the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008.</p><p>It has been almost more than a year since the epidemic last year. Now the performance of value is obviously better than growth, and this momentum can still be maintained within two years:<b>Value outperforms growth, and small caps outperform large caps.</b></p><p>Understanding this, it is easy to capture very good investment opportunities. The market fell to a low point in March last year. At that time, everyone considered the value of growth. With the economic recovery and the news that vaccines are effective, the market began to enter the value sector, and the performance of small caps gradually became obvious.</p><p><b>After these two big plunges in history, the situation that the small market is better than the large market, and the value is better than the growth has been maintained for two years.</b></p><p>Now, this possibility still exists. At present, the global economy has not yet entered a state of complete normalization. Once it is completely normalized, especially under certain inflationary pressure, the performance of value is better than growth, which is supported by a long historical data.</p><p>Of course, there are also some companies with very stable profits in the broader market, and they may perform better than large and small companies.</p><p><b>● The US dollar will not depreciate rapidly, and the RMB will perform steadily</b></p><p>On the issue of the US dollar, our view is that although the United States faces double fundamental deficits and its monetary policy is very loose, its economic development is still better than other economies, so we believe that<b>The dollar will not depreciate quickly</b>。</p><p>Regarding the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, we think it will remain between 6.3 and 6.7 in the second half of the year.</p><p>There are many factors driving the weakening of the U.S. dollar, but on the other hand, the U.S. economy is better than other economies, the yield of U.S. bonds is relatively higher than that of other developed economies, and the Federal Reserve is likely to reduce bond purchases in the second half of the year. These have also provided certain support to the U.S. dollar.</p><p>There are certain factors for the strengthening of the RMB, including the very good performance of China's economy, the purchase of Chinese assets by foreign capital, and the continuous inflow of stock and bond funds. But generally speaking, a strong RMB will also bring pressure on exports, and the dual-circulation policy will encounter certain obstacles.</p><p><b>Although the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, compared with some other currencies, there is basically no obvious change.</b></p><p>The central bank is still<b>Performance of pursuing the relative stability of RMB relative to a basket of currencies</b>, is not a deliberate pursuit of appreciation and depreciation against the US dollar.</p><p><b>In the current environment, we recommend that everyone adhere to the \"dumbbell strategy\", on the one hand, allocate leading technology stocks with strong profitability, and on the other hand, allocate value and cyclical sectors that benefit from economic recovery.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121871493","content_text":"2021年即将步入下半场，回顾上半年A股市场，虽然上证综指走势震荡，但整体呈现向上趋势。\n在2021年上半年策略报告中，诺亚财富曾指出：“2021年年初市场仍有走强机会，而随着货币政策逐步回归正常、市场融资压力的不断加大，将面临高位震荡反复压力”。\n从市场走势来看，这一判断与市场的最终走势较为吻合。\n展望2021年下半场，资本市场的大趋势将如何发展、机会又会出现在哪些领域？\n在6月26日举办的诺亚财富2021下半年投资策略会上，诺亚财富首席经济学家夏春博士、诺亚财富大类资产配置团队负责人姜奇甲、诺亚财富产品策略研究团队负责人张一鹤分别发表了主题演讲，与投资人分享了诺亚财富对下半年经济形势的预判和大类资产配置策略的看法。\n2021年下半年，市场仍将呈现震荡趋势。经过一年左右的经济复苏，中国、美国或将出现经济复苏动能减缓，而欧洲、新兴市场仍有上升趋势。\n对于目前的通胀风险，诺亚财富认为，尽管目前通胀上行为投资带来了一定难度，但是通胀的影响只是暂时的，这些影响可能在下半年都会逐步化解。另外，通胀对消费端的影响小于对于生产端的影响。\n如今，中国处于稳货币、紧信用的周期内，需求与供给存在错配现象。未来一段时间内，大类资产的配置逻辑与典型的复苏路径（需求推动型复苏）下的配置逻辑有所不同。\n在投资策略方面，诺亚财富有以下建议：\n1.股债均衡、风格均衡\n2.看好久期策略，适当增加利率债配置；继续看好CTA中短周期趋势跟踪策略\n以下是诺亚财富2021下半年投资策略会的精彩金句和精选全文实录：\n姜奇甲：“下半年的宏观经济有两大看点：第一，出口高位回落下，内需能不能接棒外需；第二，内需方面的制造业和消费的修复，能否对冲地产和基金的回落。”\n“低等级信用债的信用利差维持高位震荡的情况还会持续。在信用下沉策略上，风险还是比较大的。”\n“下半年，消费仍然会处在缓慢复苏的状态。但随着新能源汽车补贴的逐渐退出，下半年的汽车消费可能会走弱。”\n张一鹤：“目前偏震荡的行情，有利于主动管理型的股票基金做出超额收益。在管理人的选择上，我们建议选择有扎实的研究功底的、风格偏均衡、个股挖掘能力强的管理人。”\n“在中国，由于散户占比比较高，价格与价值的偏离度较高，所以有利于量化策略做出超额收益，中国的阿尔法的量是比较丰富的。”\n“10年期国债收益率在近期是走平甚至是向下的，但是同期代表商品价格的指数在往上走，这样的背离反映了对于未来经济的偏悲观的看法。从历史数据上来看，一旦发生背离，往往最后会以商品价格和10年期国债收益率双双下行为终结。”\n夏春：“美国虽然面临着基本面双赤字，货币政策非常宽松，但是由于它的经济发展还是较其他经济体好，所以我们认为美元不会快速贬值。”\n“货币流通速度还会保持在相对低的水平。货币的分配是少数人掌握了大量的货币，大量的货币被储蓄起来，进入到实体经济的相对较少，更多去到了资本市场。”\n“坚持‘哑铃策略’，一方面配置盈利能力强的龙头科技股，另外一方面要配置那些受益于经济复苏的价值和周期板块。”\n姜奇甲：利率或有下降空间\n金价震荡下行\n关注这些有结构性机会的行业\n各位观众朋友们大家好，非常高兴能跟大家分享诺亚财富2021年下半年的投资策略报告。我今天演讲的主题是宏观与大类资产。\n这一次我们的主题是“风软扁舟稳，雪尽马蹄轻”。比较直白的意思是，下半年的资产配置基调以均衡为主，可以适当乐观。\n总结一下下半年的宏观经济的两大看点：第一，出口高位回落下，内需能不能接棒外需；第二，内需方面的制造业和消费的修复，能否对冲地产和基金的回落。\n●地产投资面临下行压力\n首先我们从最基本的“需求的三驾马车”（投资、消费和出口）上做延展。\n先看固定资产的投资，上半年固定资产投资小幅回升，地产投资韧性较强，制造业也小幅回升。相比而言，去年承担重任的基建投资是在边际回落的状态。\n在房地产政策持续收紧的状态下，我们认为下半年的地产和基建投资可能会面临下行的压力，后续要关注制造业的投资。\n从去年的三季度开始，制造业的贷款需求已经持续处在回落的状态了。我们认为，下半年制造业投资存在回落的可能性。\n●大消费缓慢复苏，汽车消费或走弱\n消费在需求的三驾马车里是修复最为缓慢的，整体水平处在疫情前的水平的下方。餐饮投资在疫情前是最强的，但是到目前为止，它的恢复也是最弱的。\n下半年，消费仍然会处在缓慢复苏的状态。\n消费修复疲软的核心的原因是，大家在疫情反复扰动的情况下，对后续的不确定性抑制了大家的消费的意愿，同时也抑制了消费的场景。\n但是在下半年我们要特别注意的是去年承担消费反弹的主力军，即汽车消费。随着新能源汽车补贴的逐渐退出，下半年的汽车消费可能会走弱。\n●出口总量与全球份额占比不一致\n接下来再看最为强劲的出口，上半年的出口持续保持在10%的同比增速的水平，出口的情况是相当好的。\n但是下半年，我们可能会面临出口的总量和国内出口占全球份额的两种力量之间的赛跑，可能全球的出口的总量持续往上，但是我们的份额却可能是波动向下。\n●上半年需求比供给更强，部分商品价格将回落\n讲完需求，我们再来看一下供给的情况。从工业增加值的角度来看，我们上半年的生产情况还是相当好的。\n但是从环比的角度来看，供给处在环比下落的状态中，我们预计下降状态在下半年还有持续的可能性。\n下半年随着生产端走弱，对于PPI的助推作用可能也会慢慢的变弱。\n上半年的通货膨胀发生了相对背离的状态——CPI较弱，但是PPI较强。\n尽管核心CPI在今年的一季度有小幅反弹，但是它的增幅还是处在非常低的位置。但我们的PPI较高，生产非常好。\n从全球供需的角度来说，还是有一定错配的，需求比供给更强，导致了我们5月份 PPI的同比已经上升到9的情况。\n下半年，随着全球供给修复，有全球定价的商品，如螺纹钢、铜、原油等，我们觉得会有回落的可能。\n我们认为PPI在下半年可能会慢慢下行。我们也可以看到商品价格已经慢慢的开始降温了。\n●关注地产后周期行业\n从房价的角度来看，我们认为房价的低波动低增长的趋势已经基本形成了。\n从房地产贷款的供给端来看，随着房地产贷款集中度管理要求的出台，银行贷款收紧，相当于给房地产企业套了紧箍咒。\n是不是房地产行业处在双低的趋势下，房地产产业链投资就没有机会了？我们也不这么认为。今年的房地产的房屋竣工的面积出现了缓慢的上升。后续我们可以继续关注地产后周期的行业，如物业、家电、建材等。\n●下半年市场格局均衡，这些行业存在结构性机会\n今年上半年是均衡震荡的状态，跑赢上证指数、中证全指的行业，基本上是处在比较平均的状态，也就是说几乎一半的行业是能够跑赢中证全指，侧面反映了行业数量上的均衡。\n在2007年沪指到6124点的时候，当时打头阵的“5朵金花”，在今年都重出江湖，钢铁、采掘、化工，今年相对来说表现较好。而去年表现较亮眼的成长类行业，今年出现了相对分化的局面。\n上半年，从消费的角度来说，医药要强于食品；从科技的角度来讲，电子、创新药、生物药这些偏科技的子行业表现较好，而TMT这种行业比较落后。\n上半年，A股的整体涨幅波澜不惊，但是风格轮动惊心动魄。\n下半年的市场风格会不会延续？会不会出现成长风格重新走强的局面？\n从宏观基本面来看，小盘风格相对利好；从利率端讲，短端利率相对平稳，但是长端利率可能随着经济复苏的减弱还有向下的过程。从这个表观来看，我们认为今年下半年成长风格的波动性会较大，整体上成长风格的表现可能不如去年明显，还是均衡的格局。\n从大类行业上来讲，周期性、科技类的行业，我们觉得仍然有结构性的机会，性价比较高。\n我们也看到，之前一直都是大票跑赢小票，但今年上半年，小规模的股票的表现也在慢慢起来，所以结合起来看，我们支持向二线蓝筹布局的结论，这张PPT展现的是2021年下半年我们对于行业配置的建议。\n\n从过去几年的情况来看，用投资基金的方式来参与A股投资，要远远要好于自己去炒股票。从2020年的情况来看，有一半的股票实际上是处在下跌的状态，只有一半的股票是上涨。\n但是成立满一年的偏股型基金，基本都是上涨的。今年同样是投资公募基金比投资A股强。\n●利率或进一步下降\n我再来简单分享一下下半年债券市场的展望。对于今年下半年的债券市场，我们相对来说是比较乐观的。\n在通胀回落的背景下，下半年的单利率水平可能有进一步下行的空间。对比历史情况来看，未来10年期国债收益率的长端利率仍有可能有10-20个点的下降空间。\n今年上半年，高等级的信用债的信用利差回落趋势是比较明显的，但是低等级的信用债却是维持在了高信用利差的水平。\n我们认为，下半年低等级信用债的信用利差维持高位震荡的情况还会持续。在信用下沉策略上，风险还是比较大的。\n●金价震荡下行\n对于下半年的黄金的判断，我们认为会出现震荡下行的结果。\n我们可以参照一下2013年，美联储的缩减恐慌时期的金价表现。在2013年的12月底，尽管在这之前美联储还没有正式缩减量化宽松，或者说缩减购债规模，但是实际利率已经出现了震荡向上的趋势。随之而来的是金价震荡下跌的结果。\n参照2013年的趋势，虽然节奏上可能会有些不同，但是从大趋势上来讲，我们觉得这一次可能也会重演2013年的缩减恐慌。\n最后我总结一下下半年对于大类资产配置的建议，总体来说，我们对于股票、商品、房地产都处于中性配置的建议，对于债券相对来说比较乐观。\n张一鹤：目前的周期是“稳货币、紧信用”\n关注风格均衡的主动型股票基金\n各位诺亚的投资人大家好，我是投资顾问部的张一鹤，今天给大家带来的是对于下半年产品策略的部分，我的分享也会分成三部分：股票多头、债券、量化策略。\n回顾过往不同产品策略的表现，2020年股票多头、商品期货基上都是赚得盆满钵满，走势比较流畅。今年春节后，伴随着A股市场的调整，赚钱效应没有之前足了。\n那么，下半年应该怎么做投资？\n●当前的周期是“稳货币、紧信用”\n著名的美林时钟模型，源自于2004年美林证券一位研究员发表的一篇论文。他将经济周期从经济增长和通胀这两个维度做了切分，分别对应4个经济周期——复苏周期，过热周期，滞涨周期和衰退周期。\n不同的周期对应不同类型的投资，比如在复苏周期投资股票，在过热周期投资商品，在质量周期持有现金，在衰退周期拿着债券。\n我们现在是处在经济增长、经济增速放缓，同时通胀高起的阶段，是不是意味着当前很多的资产都没有机会了？答案肯定是否定的。\n美林时钟在美国的时钟检验效果是不错的，但是如果拿到中国来用，它本身就存在一定的问题。因为在2012年之后，中国的宏观经济层面的周期性已经消失了，GDP增速在2012年后一直在下台阶。如果看通胀周期，在2012年后，我们的CPI也失去了周期波动性。\n所以从这个维度看，美林时钟的指引效果逐渐变弱。\n我们的研究团队、外部券商投研等机构，都在用另一套理论基础——货币加信用模型。它不再从经济增长和通胀这两个维度去做经济周期的切分，而是从货币和信用的宽紧这两个维度去切分。\n当前，我们处在稳货币、紧信用的周期。这一周期对应的美林时钟的周期类似于滞涨的周期。\n目前中国央行的节奏跟美联储是不太一致的。在过去的很多年间，美联储基本上都是全球央行的领头羊。而现在，中国央行领先于美联储收紧货币政策了。基本上在去年5月份之后，我们就已经开始在收货币政策了。\n●选择风格偏均衡、个股挖掘能力强的主动型管理人\n在稳货币、紧信用的周期下，股市的表现往往是不好的。这对于股票多头来说是不是没机会了？并不是。\n股票型基金在过去16年间的涨跌幅，与沪深300在过去16年间的涨跌幅是不一样的。\n在过去的16年间，沪深300上涨的年份有9年，下跌的年份是7年，呈现涨跌互现的态势。但是股票型基金在过去的16年间基本只有4年亏钱，，这4个年份又有一定的特征，比如2008年、2011年、2016年和2018年，基本上都是对应着外部风险冲击及国内央行在短期内快速收紧流动性。\n所以做投资不要过度悲观。主动型的基金管理人，是能够在市场环境中做出超额收益的。\n在市场趋势性暴涨和暴跌的行情下，主动管理型的基金没有太大优势。如果是疯牛，可能只去买指数基金更好一些。\n而当市场呈现震荡时候，主动管理的股票型的基金是可以获得明显的超额收益的。\n超额收益的来源是什么？有一些管理人可以通过择时做波段操作，有些管理人能够选对市场主要的强势风格，还有一些管理人有比较强的选股能力，可以在某行业赛道里选强势的股票。\n目前偏震荡的行情，有利于主动管理型的股票基金做出超额收益。\n近期市场的风格没有比较突出的主线，不管是大盘小盘风格还是价值成长风格，基本上都是相对平稳的态势。\n在管理人的选择上，我们建议选择有扎实的研究功底的、风格偏均衡、个股挖掘能力强的管理人。\n●债券指数现反弹，建议布局利率债、高等级信用债、偏债混合型基金\n债券市场的表现是比较不确定的，牛市、熊市、震荡市发生概率都有。但是我们认为，债券市场投资胜率很高，但是赔率不是很确定的。\n我们去看近期的一些指标，10年期国债收益率在近期是走平甚至是向下的，但是同期代表商品价格的指数在往上走，这样的背离反映了对于未来经济的偏悲观的看法。从历史数据上来看，一旦发生背离，往往最后会以商品价格和10年期国债收益率双双下行为终结。\n所以我们认为当前债券市场存在一定的配置意义，尤其是久期策略。\n对于债券策略，建议关注利率债以及高等级的信用债。\n近几个月，各个债券的指数已经出现了一些阶段性的反弹，一方面得益于利率下行所带来的利率债的上行，另一方面来自于信用债方面的票息的收入，所以各债券的指数近期已经有比较好的表现了。\n但是对于信用债这块的配置，我们仍然建议不要有过多的信用下沉，更倾向做一些高等级的信用债，因为今年市场的债务风险仍然没有解除，对于一些风险比较高的债券，大家最好敬而远之，防止出现踩雷的风险。\n对于股债混合基金，我们建议布局偏债混合型的基金，因为债券的性价比现在更高。\n●近期商品市场现调整苗头，看好中短期趋势跟踪策略\n最后再聊一聊量化策略。\n配置量化策略的意义有两个，首先，它在组合中所处的地位是很难被股票和债券代替的，加入相关性比较低的资产进入投资组合，有利于提高组合的风险收益比。\n而CTA策略或者市场中性策略，跟传统意义上的股票策略和债券策略的相关性都是比较低的。把他们加入到组合里面会有非常良性的作用。\n此外，在股票市场发生震荡的情况下，CTA管理期货品类的表现基本上都比较稳健，在组合里面也可以对冲一些尾部的下行风险。\n在中国，当前还是有比较好的做出超额收益的土壤。如果跟美国的量化做横向的比较，在美国的量化的管理人现在非常难做出超额收益，因为市场非常成熟，机构投资者很多，所以市场通过量化策略，不管是机器学习还是多因子，基本上都是比较难做出超额收益的。\n在中国，由于散户占比比较高，价格与价值的偏离度较高，所以有利于量化策略做出超额收益，中国的阿尔法的量是比较丰富的。\n展望下半年，我们认为中长期的趋势跟踪策略依然具有机会：如果商品价格的出现逆转，对于中长期就是跟踪策略来说是有利的。\n美联储近期是有转鹰派的迹象，随着美联储转鹰派以及国内有关部门对于大宗商品价格的持续打压，近期商品市场已经出现了一些调整的苗头。\n如果下半年美联储货币政策转向的步调确定，商品市场可能会迎来趋势上的反转。届时对于中长期趋势跟踪策略来说，又有非常好表现的舞台了。\n但是目前我们可能更看好中短期趋势跟踪策略，这类策略更依赖期货市场的波动率。近期期货市场的波动率都处在非常高的位置，非常有利于中短期甚至是高频的CTA策略做出超额回报。\n大家可以去参考表里的配置建议。\n夏春：人民币兑美元相对稳定\n欧洲与新兴市场有机会\n未来的回报在于盈利而非估值\n关注价值股、小盘股\n各位朋友们大家好，今天和大家分享一下我们对2021年下半年海外的宏观经济与投资策略的展望。\n首先回顾一下我们在2021年上半年的一些观点。我们认为，上半年的经济复苏、宽松货币政策非常有利于风险资产。\n今年上半年对市场形成扰动的主要是通胀，但是通胀体现在生产端较明显，对消费端的影响还不明显。\n今年上半年，各个资产内部都出现了K型的反转，K型反转也是2021年上半年投资策略重要的主题词。\n到了下半年，变化即将开始，我们要去理解变化。\n●部分国家经济复苏动能减缓\n下半年的宏观与市场走势，美国可能会在二三季度面临经济复苏动能减缓，而这一现象在中国可能第二季度就会发生。\n相反，在其他一些地方，比方说像欧洲市场、新兴市场，他们的经济复原的状况相对缓和一些，所以这些地方还保持上升的势头。\n综合来讲，全球经济活动条件可能会相对平稳，不会出现巨大的反弹，未来可能会保持平稳，甚至相对有所下行。\n另外一方面，全球的金融条件在下半年收紧的可能性是比较大的。参考历史，流动性的反转会对市场造成比较明显的冲击。\n美国的通胀在过去两个月出现了超预期的增长，美联储也开始变得谨慎，开始认真对待通胀，不会让通胀超预期运行太久。在明年初，美国会进行缩减买券动作。\n中国也在金融条件上有所收紧，M2、社会融资条件的数据都在近期从高点回落，使得下半年的市场会迎来比较大的变化，很有可能会形成一些动荡。\n从一些指标中也可以看出目前全球的宏观情况，制造业所代表的指数已经从高点回落。除了制造业指数以外，全球市场的收益也开始逐步回落。\n欧洲、新兴市场的疫苗接种还是和美国、英国有一定差距，体现在具体生产上就是制造业生产落后。\n到了下半年，美国、英国可能会完成疫苗接种计划，经济会形成一定的转型。比方说上半年制造业非常好，到了下半年可能服务业会崛起，制造业上半年的强需求在下半年有所减缓。\n但欧洲和新兴市场还存在持续的疫苗接种过程，以及经济的复苏的过程。\n总体上来讲，全球经济增速基本上会在2021年下半年或2022年初从高点往下回落，在新兴市场和发达国家之间的经济增速差会逐渐缩短，即新兴市场会追上发达国家。\n●通胀是暂时的，货币流通速度保持低水平\n另外一方面，影响市场特别大的因素就是通胀。\n在2011年的时候，当时美国的CPI快速上行，但是这个上行过程也只是暂时的，下半年开始逐步走低。\n过去推动通胀上涨的重要力量就是货币供给，美国M2货币的供应同比增速已经从高点开始逐步回落。\n未来经济正常化后，我们认为货币流通速度还会保持在相对低的水平。货币的分配是少数人掌握了大量的货币，大量的货币被储蓄起来，进入到实体经济的相对较少，更多去到了资本市场。\n主要的不确定性因素是，病毒的变种可能会带来新的生产供应的冲击。不过一旦通胀出现超预期的增长，美联储还是会果断采取行动。因此我觉得市场目前还不需担心。\n●靠估值赚钱已经“过气”，盈利将决定未来的回报\n从不同的国家和地区来看，去年的回报主要是来自于估值变化，去年的盈利基本上都是负的，但是基于前瞻性的判断，很多地区在2020年还是取得了很好的回报。\n但是今年上半年，回报虽然还是基本上是正的，但主要是依靠盈利变化拉动。估值的变化在2021年基本上是处在收缩的阶段，在下半年依然有可能持续，除非估值调整使得公司估值明显的低于原来的情况。\n绝大部分估值在去年就形成了很大的扩张。接下来，盈利将决定不同国家的上市公司未来回报的表现。\n●关注新兴市场的发展\n在关注盈利的过程中，我们发现市场对新兴市场、欧洲、亚太会相对更乐观，所以我们一定要捕捉到盈利带来的未来的增长的机会。\n过去一段时间，美国表现得一枝独秀，但是未来，美国的上市公司要想再度创造更多的超预期结果，将变得比较困难。\n而在新兴市场和欧洲，目前单从盈利的角度来讲，他们表现更好的可能性会相对大一些，盈利同比的变化的差距相对更大。\n在经济复苏过程中，传统的周期板块和成长板块会有相对不同的表现。在过去低经济增长、低利率环境下，成长的板块表现比较好，价值周期板块相对比较落后；但是在经济复苏过程中，通胀慢慢升温，周期板块会相对于成长板块有更好的表现。\n相对于欧洲和新兴市场，标普500的周期板块占比较少，成长板块占比相对较高。所以未来从盈利表现、周期板块、估值的角度看，我们觉得欧洲的市场的机会更多。\n●价值优于成长，小盘优于大盘\n从全球的价值成长来看，过去两次大回撤，一次是2000年科技泡沫破灭，还有一次是2008年金融危机爆发。\n从去年疫情到现在差不多过了一年多的时间，现在价值的表现明显好于成长，两年内该势头依然可以维持：价值比成长表现更好，小盘比大盘表现更好。\n理解了这一点，就很容易捕捉非常好的投资机会。去年3月份市场跌到低点，那个时候大家考虑成长价值。随着经济复苏、疫苗有效消息出来后，市场开始进入到价值板块，同时小盘的表现渐渐明显。\n历史上这两次大跌之后，小盘好于大盘，价值好于成长的状况维持了两年时间。\n现在，这种可能性依然存在。现在全球经济还没有进入到完全正常化的状况，一旦完全正常化，特别是在一定的通胀压力下，价值的表现比成长好，是有很长的历史数据支撑的。\n当然，大盘里面也有一些盈利非常稳定的公司，他们可能跑得比大盘小盘都更好。\n●美元不会快速贬值，人民币表现稳定\n在美元问题上，我们的观点是，美国虽然面临着基本面双赤字，货币政策非常宽松，但是由于它的经济发展还是较其他经济体好，所以我们认为美元不会快速贬值。\n关于人民币相对美元的汇率，在下半年我们认为会依然维持在6.3~6.7之间。\n推动美元走软有很多因素，但另外一方面美国经济好于其他的经济体，美债的收益率比其他发达经济体要相对高一些，还有美联储在下半年很可能采取缩减买债的做法，这些也都对美元形成了一定的支撑。\n人民币有一定的走强的因素，包括中国经济的表现非常好，外资对中国资产的购买，股债资金不断流入。但是总体上来讲，人民币走得很强也会带来出口的压力，双循环的政策会遇到一定的阻碍。\n人民币对美元虽有所升值，但是相对于其他的一些货币，基本上并没有非常明显的变化。\n现在央行还是在追求人民币相对一篮子货币的相对稳定性的表现，并不是在刻意的追求对美元的升值和贬值。\n在当前的环境下，我们推荐大家坚持“哑铃策略”，一方面配置盈利能力强的龙头科技股，另外一方面要配置那些受益于经济复苏的价值和周期板块。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168161471,"gmtCreate":1623966368093,"gmtModify":1703824710065,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168161471","repostId":"1111690771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111690771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623935139,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111690771?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 21:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111690771","media":"杠杆游戏","summary":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息","content":"<p>Global attention, whether the United States is rate hike, and when will it be rate hike?</p><p>On June 16, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot released together showed that more than half of the FOMC members gave expectations for advance rate hike. The median forecast suggested that the Fed would rate hike 2 times before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? Let's talk about the leverage game according to the details of this interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 committee members support at least one rate hike before the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous forecast of 2.2%. With the better recovery of the economy, price and monetary policy issues naturally come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked you.</p><p>The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike before the end of 2023, compared with 7 in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>Eleven members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven members are expected to start rate hike in 2022. In March, it was 4.</p><p>The median dot plot forecast in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key is why?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.</p><p>However, it is very clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.</p><p>Here, the leverage game needs to be said more. What is the goal of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Compared with the pre-black swan level, the number of employed people in May still decreased by about 7.6 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Northeast Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The Fed expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively-at this point, returning to very low levels, probably considered qualified;</p><p>At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-the price indicator should be considered to be up to standard.</p><p>Therefore, my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, simply put, employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may accelerate, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the above changes in the number of Fed members' attitudes towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike is much faster than before.</p><p>While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will mainly fluctuate.</p><p>But because liquidity in China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.</p><p>At the same time, no matter the central banks of China and the United States, the communication with the market is relatively full and transparent, and no one will suddenly change monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will not panic as a whole, and the trend downward trend will not occur.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still a bit weak, and external demand supports high production boom. Real estate and investment should not be too cold at this time.</b></p><p>June 16 was a very interesting day. The United States announced some statements of their interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.</p><p>According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Beijing Capital Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp drop in exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.</p><p>Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.</p><p>In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started housing area has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. Real estate investment is still supported in the short term, and there is certain pressure for a long time.</p><p>At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability of fixed investment falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Social retail sales increased by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than market expectations of 12.8%, and the previous value was 17.7%.</p><p>Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports have peaked. Then, real estate suppression is suppression and cannot be made too ugly.</p><p><b>5. It is worth noting whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter.</b></p><p>Regardless of global housing prices, commodities, or the U.S. stock market, this round of surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned in the leverage game above, the Federal Reserve has signals of shrinking, and the excess reserve interest rate has increased slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of cards played by China's central bank has proved that \"I am the mainstay\"-as long as the United States does not rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns should not come.</p><p>From this perspective alone, in 2021, my country's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an extremely strict attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, economic stability still needs it.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began cutting QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022. These are basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: The stock market will basically not be affected by the United States in 2021, and the property market will be dominated by me.</b>The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.</p><p>What I mean by the latter is that the property market will crack down on speculation throughout 2021. However, the local trading ability of the property market is becoming more and more proficient, and it has always had its own way to ensure a certain price and sales volume.</p><p>Besides, the water hasn't decreased.</p>","source":"lsy1574902984297","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish Signal! 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The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">杠杆游戏</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 21:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Global attention, whether the United States is rate hike, and when will it be rate hike?</p><p>On June 16, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot released together showed that more than half of the FOMC members gave expectations for advance rate hike. The median forecast suggested that the Fed would rate hike 2 times before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? Let's talk about the leverage game according to the details of this interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 committee members support at least one rate hike before the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous forecast of 2.2%. With the better recovery of the economy, price and monetary policy issues naturally come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked you.</p><p>The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike before the end of 2023, compared with 7 in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>Eleven members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven members are expected to start rate hike in 2022. In March, it was 4.</p><p>The median dot plot forecast in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key is why?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.</p><p>However, it is very clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.</p><p>Here, the leverage game needs to be said more. What is the goal of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Compared with the pre-black swan level, the number of employed people in May still decreased by about 7.6 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Northeast Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The Fed expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively-at this point, returning to very low levels, probably considered qualified;</p><p>At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-the price indicator should be considered to be up to standard.</p><p>Therefore, my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, simply put, employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may accelerate, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the above changes in the number of Fed members' attitudes towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike is much faster than before.</p><p>While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will mainly fluctuate.</p><p>But because liquidity in China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.</p><p>At the same time, no matter the central banks of China and the United States, the communication with the market is relatively full and transparent, and no one will suddenly change monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will not panic as a whole, and the trend downward trend will not occur.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still a bit weak, and external demand supports high production boom. Real estate and investment should not be too cold at this time.</b></p><p>June 16 was a very interesting day. The United States announced some statements of their interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.</p><p>According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Beijing Capital Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp drop in exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.</p><p>Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.</p><p>In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started housing area has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. Real estate investment is still supported in the short term, and there is certain pressure for a long time.</p><p>At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability of fixed investment falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Social retail sales increased by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than market expectations of 12.8%, and the previous value was 17.7%.</p><p>Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports have peaked. Then, real estate suppression is suppression and cannot be made too ugly.</p><p><b>5. It is worth noting whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter.</b></p><p>Regardless of global housing prices, commodities, or the U.S. stock market, this round of surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned in the leverage game above, the Federal Reserve has signals of shrinking, and the excess reserve interest rate has increased slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of cards played by China's central bank has proved that \"I am the mainstay\"-as long as the United States does not rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns should not come.</p><p>From this perspective alone, in 2021, my country's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an extremely strict attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, economic stability still needs it.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began cutting QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022. These are basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: The stock market will basically not be affected by the United States in 2021, and the property market will be dominated by me.</b>The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.</p><p>What I mean by the latter is that the property market will crack down on speculation throughout 2021. However, the local trading ability of the property market is becoming more and more proficient, and it has always had its own way to ensure a certain price and sales volume.</p><p>Besides, the water hasn't decreased.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw\">杠杆游戏</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111690771","content_text":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息的预期，中位数预测暗示，美联储将在2023年前加息2次。\n利率或从0.1%升至0.6%。\n\n总体来说，美联储对物价的担忧提高，鹰派信号初现。这对我国股市、楼市会有什么影响，杠杆游戏根据此次议息会议的细节，展开谈一谈。\n1、鹰派转向信号值得重视！\n18位委员中有13人支持在2023年底前，至少加息1次。美联储对美国经济比较有信心，他们认为2021年美国GDP将增长7.0%，而3月份会议的预测为6.5%。\n美联储还将2023年的实际GDP预测，从之前预期的2.2%上调至2.4%。伴随经济的较好复苏，物价和货币政策问题自然来了。\n\n华泰期货做了一个统计，杠杆游戏觉得非常有意义，并致谢。\n美联储官员的加息路径点阵图显示，到2023年底，美联储或许将加息2次。\nFOMC（美联储的公开市场委员会）6月点阵图显示，18 位委员中有13人支持在2023 年底前至少加息1次，而3月为7位。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n11位委员预计到2023年底至少加息2次，7名委员预计在2022年开始加息。3月为4位。\n而3月份的点阵图中位数预测值暗示，到2023年底前不会加息。\n2、美联储主席鲍威尔总体认为，现在讨论加息还为时过早，关键是为什么？\n当然，美联储准备将超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.1%，调整至0.15%，也就是说，面对流动性过剩，美联储其实也在适当出手。\n不过说得很清楚，将继续每月增持至少800亿美元的国债，以及至少400亿美元的住房抵押贷款支持证券，直到充分就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进展。\n这里杠杆游戏要多一句嘴，什么算充分就业和物价稳定目标？\n比如美国4月、5月新增非农就业人口分别为27.8万和55.9万，均低于预期。与黑天鹅前水平相比，5月就业人数依然减少了约760万。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n美联储预计2021年失业率将降至4.5%（与3月的预测持平），2022年和2023年失业率将分别降至3.8%和3.5%——到此，回到非常低的水平，大概算是合格；\n同时鲍威尔认为通货膨胀可能在未来几个月继续居高不下，然后才会有所缓和——物价指标应该算达标。\n所以，我的结论就是，美国人在乎的是经济，简单说就是就业指标。\n3、美国货币政策正常化可能加快，值得重视，但股市应该暂时无忧。\n从上文美联储委员对加息的态度人数变化看，杠杆游戏基本可以认为，加息节奏较此前大大加快。\n虽然目前还没有加息的信号，但提前到来是可能的。同时，鲍威尔已经准备讨论缩减购债，鹰派显露无疑，那么美元短期内有支撑，人民币汇率震荡为主。\n但因为中美流动性总体宽松。如我们的M2，5月末227.54万亿元，同比增长8.3%，增速比上月末高0.2个百分点。\n同时无论中美央行，与市场的沟通都较为充分、透明，谁都不会货币政策突然转向。\n所以股市总体不会恐慌，趋势性下跌不会出现。\n4、内需还是有点弱，外需支撑生产高景气，房地产和投资这个时候不能太凉。\n6月16日是很有意思的一天，美国通报他们的议息会议部分声明，我们发布了多项经济指标。\n我们可以看，工业生产其实略走弱，外需仍是重要支撑。\n首创证券统计发现，比如5月规上工业增加值两年平均增速为6.6%，较前值略降0.2个百分点。\n\n图表来源|首创证券（特此感谢）\n出口交货值复合增速有较大回落，与5月出口大幅回落相呼应，但如果没有出口的高增长，工业数据会下滑更多。\n总体来说，外需见顶回落，生产和出口下一步略有影响是一定的。\n而固投方面，同比增长15.4%。但房屋新开工面积连续两个月负增长，竣工面积本月大幅提速，同比转正为5.0%，短期内房地产投资仍有支撑，长期存在一定的压力。\n同时债务管理的加强，固定投资的回落大概率。\n\n5月社零销售增长12.4%，小幅低于市场预期的12.8%，前值为17.7%。\n总的来说，杠杆游戏认为，内需马马虎虎，出口见顶，那么，房地产打压归打压，不能搞得太难看。\n5、三季度美国是否有流动性拐点，值得注意。\n无论全球房价，还是大宗商品，以及美国股市，资产价格大涨本质这一轮都是流动性主导的。\n现在问题来了，三季度美国流动性是否有拐点？上文杠杆游戏写了，美联储有缩量的信号，超额准备金利率略有提高。\n\n图表来源|浙商证券（特此感谢）\n3季度杠杆游戏认为，第一幅度小，第二是个试探，同时我国央行上一轮的出牌已经证明，“以我为主”——只要美国不加息，资金回美追求高收益的世界趋势，应该不会到来。\n单这个角度说，2021年，我国股市不至于看空；楼市，只是对投机表现出异常严厉的态度，如上所述，经济的稳定还需要它。\n需要注意的是，3季度，比如7、8月，美联储始正式讨论削减QE，2021年底或2022年初开始削减QE，这些基本已在市场预期内。\n尽管如此，这对任何国家的货币政策，起码都是掣肘。\n6、结论：2021年股市基本不会受美国影响，楼市以我为主。前者杠杆游戏的意思是，不要担心流动性。\n后者我的意思是，楼市打击投机，将贯穿2021年始终。但地方对楼市的操盘能力，也是越来越纯熟，保障一定的价格和销量，从来都有自己办法。\n何况，水又没减少。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168163030,"gmtCreate":1623966252920,"gmtModify":1703824707584,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168163030","repostId":"1129014312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129014312","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623938489,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129014312?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 22:01","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Chinese concept education stocks continued to fall, TAL fell nearly 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129014312","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月17日，中概教育股持续走低，好未来跌近9%，高途跌超7%、新东方跌超4%。\n\n继6月15日教育部宣布成立校外教育培训监管司之后，国务院教育督导委员会办公室昨天发布校外培训风险提示——\n一、警惕虚假","content":"<p>On June 17, Chinese concept education stocks continued to fall.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Fell nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Fell more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ee918473ddb65b54c850140dccdc2f\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the Ministry of Education announced the establishment of the off-campus education and training supervision department on June 15th, the Office of the Education Steering Committee of the State Council issued a risk warning of off-campus training yesterday-</p><p>First, be wary of false propaganda to induce payment. In order to attract students, some training institutions sell courses at prices significantly lower than the cost, mislead students to sign up with inappropriate terms, and even make up the original price of courses that have never been sold, and then make false propaganda at underlined prices and discounted prices to attract parents to pay training fees.</p><p>Second, be wary of illegal charges under various pretexts. Before paying the fees, parents should know in detail all the fees announced by the training institutions to the public, and carefully identify and operate carefully the fees that exceed the scope of publicity and exceed 3 months or 60 class hours at one time.</p><p>Third, be wary of concocting gimmicks and high charges. Some training institutions take advantage of the eagerness of parents and children before the exam, organize so-called \"confidential training\" and \"internal training\" under the guise of gimmicks of proposition research centers, proposition experts and even proposition people, and charge high fees.</p><p>At this time, the semester exam is approaching and the summer vacation is approaching. It was originally the peak season for off-campus training institutions to promote and enroll students. The Office of the Education Steering Committee of the State Council specially \"came forward\" to remind parents to \"keep their eyes open and avoid being deceived\", which naturally further clarified the regulatory attitude of relevant government departments towards the off-campus training and counseling market.</p><p>As a matter of fact, since this year's National \"two sessions\" launched verbal criticism of off-campus training institutions, the supervision and rectification of off-campus training by relevant government departments has become more and more intensive. Especially in May, before and after the 19th meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform reviewed and approved the Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden of Students' Homework and Off-campus Training in Compulsory Education, the State Administrations for Market Supervision at all levels imposed maximum penalties on a number of training institutions for illegal acts such as false propaganda and price fraud. For a while, the off-campus training market was jittery.</p><p>Recently, the establishment of the off-campus education and training supervision department indicates that the specific supervision measures of the education department will be fully implemented, and the capital market panic caused by this is also reasonable. However, in this round of panic, overseas media reports are more lethal.</p><p>Yesterday, foreign media reported that China was preparing to crack down harder than expected on the $120 billion extracurricular tutoring industry, including a trial ban on holiday tutoring and restricting advertising. Among them, new rules, which could be published as early as next week and come into effect next month, are aimed at easing pressure on schoolchildren and boosting the country's birth rate by reducing the cost of living for families.</p><p>Overseas media quoted sources as saying that Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities tried to ban online and offline tutoring during summer and winter vacations. The trial holiday ban also adds to plans to ban online and offline tutoring on weekends during the term, which could reduce the annual revenue of off-campus tutoring businesses by as much as 70 to 80%.</p><p>In fact, the above rumors have long been circulating in the market, and even triggered some executives of education companies listed on the US stock market to sell their stocks. However, the education authorities are secretive about such rumors, neither clarifying nor replying. With the establishment of the off-campus education and training supervision department, rumors are about to be uncovered.</p><p>In fact, the capital market has closed its hands on the future expectations of Chinese concept education stocks in the US stock market: June 11,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The announcement stated that New Oriental's rating was downgraded to sell; On June 7, Credit Suisse downgraded New Oriental's rating from outperform to neutral, and lowered its target price from $14 to $9.3.</p><p>As for the trend of China's off-campus training industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>According to the report, it is expected that new policies on the off-campus education and training industry will be introduced in the future, and the development of the industry will usher in changes. It is believed that false propaganda, excessive propaganda and other industry chaos in the industry can be effectively eradicated in the long run, and relevant enterprises will be guided to the correct development direction. Therefore, in the long run, it will be beneficial to the business development of leading enterprises, but in the short run, it will impose certain constraints on the business expansion of enterprises.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese concept education stocks continued to fall, TAL fell nearly 9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese concept education stocks continued to fall, TAL fell nearly 9%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 22:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 17, Chinese concept education stocks continued to fall.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Fell nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Fell more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ee918473ddb65b54c850140dccdc2f\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the Ministry of Education announced the establishment of the off-campus education and training supervision department on June 15th, the Office of the Education Steering Committee of the State Council issued a risk warning of off-campus training yesterday-</p><p>First, be wary of false propaganda to induce payment. In order to attract students, some training institutions sell courses at prices significantly lower than the cost, mislead students to sign up with inappropriate terms, and even make up the original price of courses that have never been sold, and then make false propaganda at underlined prices and discounted prices to attract parents to pay training fees.</p><p>Second, be wary of illegal charges under various pretexts. Before paying the fees, parents should know in detail all the fees announced by the training institutions to the public, and carefully identify and operate carefully the fees that exceed the scope of publicity and exceed 3 months or 60 class hours at one time.</p><p>Third, be wary of concocting gimmicks and high charges. Some training institutions take advantage of the eagerness of parents and children before the exam, organize so-called \"confidential training\" and \"internal training\" under the guise of gimmicks of proposition research centers, proposition experts and even proposition people, and charge high fees.</p><p>At this time, the semester exam is approaching and the summer vacation is approaching. It was originally the peak season for off-campus training institutions to promote and enroll students. The Office of the Education Steering Committee of the State Council specially \"came forward\" to remind parents to \"keep their eyes open and avoid being deceived\", which naturally further clarified the regulatory attitude of relevant government departments towards the off-campus training and counseling market.</p><p>As a matter of fact, since this year's National \"two sessions\" launched verbal criticism of off-campus training institutions, the supervision and rectification of off-campus training by relevant government departments has become more and more intensive. Especially in May, before and after the 19th meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform reviewed and approved the Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden of Students' Homework and Off-campus Training in Compulsory Education, the State Administrations for Market Supervision at all levels imposed maximum penalties on a number of training institutions for illegal acts such as false propaganda and price fraud. For a while, the off-campus training market was jittery.</p><p>Recently, the establishment of the off-campus education and training supervision department indicates that the specific supervision measures of the education department will be fully implemented, and the capital market panic caused by this is also reasonable. However, in this round of panic, overseas media reports are more lethal.</p><p>Yesterday, foreign media reported that China was preparing to crack down harder than expected on the $120 billion extracurricular tutoring industry, including a trial ban on holiday tutoring and restricting advertising. Among them, new rules, which could be published as early as next week and come into effect next month, are aimed at easing pressure on schoolchildren and boosting the country's birth rate by reducing the cost of living for families.</p><p>Overseas media quoted sources as saying that Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities tried to ban online and offline tutoring during summer and winter vacations. The trial holiday ban also adds to plans to ban online and offline tutoring on weekends during the term, which could reduce the annual revenue of off-campus tutoring businesses by as much as 70 to 80%.</p><p>In fact, the above rumors have long been circulating in the market, and even triggered some executives of education companies listed on the US stock market to sell their stocks. However, the education authorities are secretive about such rumors, neither clarifying nor replying. With the establishment of the off-campus education and training supervision department, rumors are about to be uncovered.</p><p>In fact, the capital market has closed its hands on the future expectations of Chinese concept education stocks in the US stock market: June 11,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The announcement stated that New Oriental's rating was downgraded to sell; On June 7, Credit Suisse downgraded New Oriental's rating from outperform to neutral, and lowered its target price from $14 to $9.3.</p><p>As for the trend of China's off-campus training industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>According to the report, it is expected that new policies on the off-campus education and training industry will be introduced in the future, and the development of the industry will usher in changes. It is believed that false propaganda, excessive propaganda and other industry chaos in the industry can be effectively eradicated in the long run, and relevant enterprises will be guided to the correct development direction. Therefore, in the long run, it will be beneficial to the business development of leading enterprises, but in the short run, it will impose certain constraints on the business expansion of enterprises.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/428db54350354f66d13560331e078b53","relate_stocks":{"GOTU":"高途","EDU":"新东方","TAL":"好未来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129014312","content_text":"6月17日，中概教育股持续走低，好未来跌近9%，高途跌超7%、新东方跌超4%。\n\n继6月15日教育部宣布成立校外教育培训监管司之后，国务院教育督导委员会办公室昨天发布校外培训风险提示——\n一、警惕虚假宣传诱导缴费。部分培训机构为招揽生源，以明显低于成本的价格售卖课程、以不当用语误导学生报名，甚至虚构从未成交的课程原价，然后以划线价、折扣价进行虚假宣传，吸引家长缴纳培训费用。\n二、警惕巧立名目违规收费。在缴纳费用前，家长要详细了解培训机构向社会公示的所有收费项目，对超出公示范围、一次性超过3个月或60课时的收费，需仔细辨别，谨慎操作。\n三、警惕炮制噱头高额收费。部分培训机构利用家长和孩子考前的急切心理，假借命题研究中心、命题专家甚至命题人的噱头，组织所谓的“保密培训”“内部培训”等，收取高额费用。\n此时，正值学期考试临近、暑假将至，原本是校外培训机构促销、招生的旺季。国务院教育督导委员会办公室特别“出面”提醒广大家长“擦亮眼睛，避免上当受骗”，自然进一步明确了政府相关部门对于校外培训辅导市场的监管态度。\n事实上，自今年全国“两会”掀起对校外培训机构的口诛笔伐以来，政府有关部门对于校外培训的监管与整顿愈发密集。特别是5月，中央全面深化改革委员会第十九次会议审议通过了《关于进一步减轻义务教育阶段学生作业负担和校外培训负担的意见》前后，各级市场监管总局以涉及虚假宣传、价格欺诈等违法行为，对一批培训机构的进行了顶格处罚。一时之间，校外培训市场可谓风声鹤唳。\n近日，校外教育培训监管司的成立，表明教育部门具体的监管措施将全面落实，由此引发的资本市场恐慌也在情理之中。但是，在这一轮恐慌中，境外媒体的报道则更具杀伤力。\n昨天，有境外媒体报道称，中国准备对1200亿美元的课外辅导行业进行比预期更为严厉的打击，包括试行禁止假期补习和限制广告。其中，新规定最早可能在下周公布，并于下个月生效，旨在缓解学童的压力并通过降低家庭生活成本来提高国家的出生率。\n境外媒体援引消息人士说法，北京、上海和其他主要城市在暑假和寒假期间试行禁止线上和线下辅导。试行假期禁令还增加了在学期期间禁止在周末进行线上和线下辅导的计划，这可能会使校外辅导企业的年收入减少多达70至80%。\n其实，上述传言在坊间早已流传，甚至引发了一些美股上市教育企业高管抛售持有的股票。但是，教育主管部门对于此类传言都是讳莫如深，既未予澄清，也不予答复。随着校外教育培训监管司的成立，传言也即将揭开盖子。\n事实上，对于美股中概教育股的未来预期，资本市场已经收手：6月11日，花旗公告称，将新东方评级下调至卖出；6月7日，瑞信下调新东方的评级，从跑赢大盘下调至中性，目标价从14美元下调至9.3美元。\n至于中国校外培训行业的走势，国泰君安发表报告认为，预计未来会出台关于校外教培行业的新政策，行业的发展将迎来改变。相信行业内虚假宣传、过度宣传等行业乱象长远能被有效根除，相关的企业将被引导走向正确的发展方向。因此，从长远来看会有利于头部企业的业务发展，但在短期内会对企业的业务拓展造成一定的约束。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOTU":0.9,"TAL":0.9,"EDU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112309903,"gmtCreate":1622849775602,"gmtModify":1704192258898,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112309903","repostId":"1149890763","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149890763","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622813612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149890763?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 21:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening: U.S. stocks opened higher across the board, the concept of retail investors rebounded, and auto stocks collectively rose","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149890763","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月4日（周五），美股全线高开。道琼斯指数开盘上涨104.39点，涨幅0.30%，报34681.43点；标普500指数开盘上涨19.41点，涨幅0.46%，报4212.26点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨","content":"<p>On June 4 (Friday), U.S. stocks opened higher across the board. The Dow Jones index opened up 104.39 points, or 0.30%, to 34,681.43 points; The S&P 500 index opened up 19.41 points, or 0.46%, to 4212.26 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 83.22 points, or 0.61%, to 13697.73 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2f90afbeaff431b4424d407fb52bac\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">The ninth city</a>With a surge of more than 20%, the company announced the acquisition and investment in Canadian digital currency mines Montcrypto and Skychain.</p><p>The auto sector rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Continued to rise 2%. Ford said on Thursday that total sales in May increased by 4.1% year-on-year, retail sales fell by 11.2%, and electric vehicle sales in May surged 184% year-on-year. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>Up 1.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCC.U\">Churchill Capital</a>IV rose 3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up 1.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 1.8%.</p><p>The semiconductor sector generally rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Up 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">Xilinx</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Up 1.4%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">DocuSign</a>Up more than 8%, the company's second-quarter revenue forecast is better than market consensus.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">United States Steel</a>Up 3%, previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Raised its price target to $30.</p><p>Pershing Square's SPAC Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a>Falling more than 11%, it announced today that it will acquire a 10% stake in Universal Music to achieve listing.</p><p>The volatile retail concept stocks rebounded slightly at the beginning of the market. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Up 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Up 2.5%.</p><p>New hot stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKHS\">Workhorse</a>It fell more than 5% and closed up more than 28% yesterday.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening: U.S. stocks opened higher across the board, the concept of retail investors rebounded, and auto stocks collectively rose</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening: U.S. stocks opened higher across the board, the concept of retail investors rebounded, and auto stocks collectively rose\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-04 21:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 4 (Friday), U.S. stocks opened higher across the board. The Dow Jones index opened up 104.39 points, or 0.30%, to 34,681.43 points; The S&P 500 index opened up 19.41 points, or 0.46%, to 4212.26 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 83.22 points, or 0.61%, to 13697.73 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2f90afbeaff431b4424d407fb52bac\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">The ninth city</a>With a surge of more than 20%, the company announced the acquisition and investment in Canadian digital currency mines Montcrypto and Skychain.</p><p>The auto sector rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Continued to rise 2%. Ford said on Thursday that total sales in May increased by 4.1% year-on-year, retail sales fell by 11.2%, and electric vehicle sales in May surged 184% year-on-year. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>Up 1.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCC.U\">Churchill Capital</a>IV rose 3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up 1.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 1.8%.</p><p>The semiconductor sector generally rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Up 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">Xilinx</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Up 1.4%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">DocuSign</a>Up more than 8%, the company's second-quarter revenue forecast is better than market consensus.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">United States Steel</a>Up 3%, previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Raised its price target to $30.</p><p>Pershing Square's SPAC Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a>Falling more than 11%, it announced today that it will acquire a 10% stake in Universal Music to achieve listing.</p><p>The volatile retail concept stocks rebounded slightly at the beginning of the market. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Up 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Up 2.5%.</p><p>New hot stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKHS\">Workhorse</a>It fell more than 5% and closed up more than 28% yesterday.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149890763","content_text":"6月4日（周五），美股全线高开。道琼斯指数开盘上涨104.39点，涨幅0.30%，报34681.43点；标普500指数开盘上涨19.41点，涨幅0.46%，报4212.26点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨83.22点，涨幅0.61%，报13697.73点。第九城市大涨超20%，公司宣布收购及投资加拿大数字货币矿场Montcrypto及Skychain。汽车板块走高，福特汽车续涨2%。福特汽车周四表示，5月总销量同比增长4.1%，零售销量下降11.2%，5月电动车销量同比大增184%。同时，特斯拉涨2%，丰田汽车涨1.15%，Churchill Capital IV涨3.6%，小鹏汽车涨1.2%，蔚来汽车涨1.8%。半导体板块普涨，美光科技、英伟达涨2%，赛灵思、高通涨1.4%。DocuSign涨超8%，公司第二季度营收预期好于市场共识。美国钢铁涨3%，此前瑞银将其目标价上调至30美元。潘兴广场旗下SPAC公司Pershing Square Tontine Holdings跌超11%，今日宣布将收购环球音乐10%股权实现上市。波动剧烈的散户概念股开盘之初稍稍回弹，截至发稿，AMC院线涨超4%，游戏驿站涨2%，3B家居涨2.5%。新晋热门股Workhorse跌超5%，昨日收涨超28%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112974240,"gmtCreate":1622849657880,"gmtModify":1704192255319,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112974240","repostId":"1146370478","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146370478","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622821732,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146370478?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 23:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AMC Theaters rose more than 5%, Bank of America conceded defeat to retail investors' group stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146370478","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周五，部分热门散户抱团股反弹。截至发稿，AMC院线涨超5%，3B家居涨近1%，游戏驿站转涨。市场消息称，美国银行向散户抱团股认输，已经决定不再试图弄懂其中一些股票，终止覆盖游戏驿站评级，且将对Bed ","content":"<p>On Friday, some popular retail investors' group stocks rebounded. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Rose nearly 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Turned up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6841497c597c7b54d4f4129311870d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to market sources,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Admitting defeat to retail investors' group stocks, has decided not to try to understand some of these stocks, terminated the coverage of GameStop rating, and changed the rating of Bed Bath & Beyond to no rating. Previously, the bank rated GameStop as weaker than the broader market and BBBY as a buy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Theaters rose more than 5%, Bank of America conceded defeat to retail investors' group stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Theaters rose more than 5%, Bank of America conceded defeat to retail investors' group stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-04 23:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Friday, some popular retail investors' group stocks rebounded. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Rose nearly 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Turned up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6841497c597c7b54d4f4129311870d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to market sources,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Admitting defeat to retail investors' group stocks, has decided not to try to understand some of these stocks, terminated the coverage of GameStop rating, and changed the rating of Bed Bath & Beyond to no rating. Previously, the bank rated GameStop as weaker than the broader market and BBBY as a buy.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/765eea7b8efcd21c54c30bb5f35bff0d","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146370478","content_text":"周五，部分热门散户抱团股反弹。截至发稿，AMC院线涨超5%，3B家居涨近1%，游戏驿站转涨。市场消息称，美国银行向散户抱团股认输，已经决定不再试图弄懂其中一些股票，终止覆盖游戏驿站评级，且将对Bed Bath & Beyond评级改为无评级。此前该行对游戏驿站评级为弱于大盘，对BBBY评级为买入。 ","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137107788,"gmtCreate":1622322315244,"gmtModify":1704182916420,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137107788","repostId":"1166516864","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":148628843,"gmtCreate":1625972830982,"gmtModify":1703751454469,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148628843","repostId":"1124741749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124741749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625910991,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124741749?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 17:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Thorpe and Simmons: The legendary lives of two godfather investment tycoons","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124741749","media":"SMARTMATRIX","summary":"他们都出生于30年代，自幼天赋异禀、身在学术圈但都一心向钱，有两个共同的母校。","content":"<p>A Man for All Markets is the personal biography of Edward Thorp, the Chinese translation of \"The Man Who Beat All Markets\". Judging from Thorp's experience, from defeating casinos to entering Wall Street, OTC options, convertible bonds, stocks, futures and other derivatives, all Dabbled in, worthy of the name All Markets. Taleb says in the preface that his memoir reads like a thriller.</p><p>As a mathematical genius and the godfather of quantitative investment, he pioneered the introduction of probability theory, information theory, and computer programming into financial transactions, which influenced countless Quant bosses in later generations: Bill Gross, David Shaw, Ken Griffin... including the famous James Simons, whose Renaissance Technology company created the myth of the rate of return in financial history. Similarly, Simons' biography The Man Who Solved The Market records in detail the ups and downs of his and his team's conquest of the financial market.</p><p><b>Academic origin</b></p><p>When culture flourishes, people are outstanding. The so-called outstanding people, such as the Huxiang School since the late Ming Dynasty in China, made Hunan the cradle of revolutionaries. In the academic circle, there is a similar phenomenon. If you study the backgrounds of the two bosses carefully, you will find a lot in common. They were both born in the 1930s. They were gifted since childhood, in the academic circle, but they were all dedicated to money. They have two common alma maters: the University of California, Berkeley and MIT. The academics of both universities reached their peak after the war. One of the main reasons was the large-scale military scientific research activities (the famous Manhattan Project, cryptography, information theory and modern computers) spawned by World War II. Both Thorp and Simons happened to catch up with this wave of academic dividends. In the 1950s, Thorp was obsessed with studying roulette with Shannon, while Simons was still immersed in theoretical mathematics, which also made his academic achievements higher (Chern-Simons Theroy). In the 1960s, MIT became the center of the computer revolution, and mathematics and computers were the two keys to Wall Street, and Thorp was the lucky one to hold these two keys.</p><p><b>Casinos vs Wall Street</b></p><p>The popular story nowadays is that Thorp defeated the casino by using the law of large numbers and Kelly's formula, and he became the first person in history to be \"blacked out\" by Las Vegas casinos. By contrast, the hedge fund he founded, PNP (Princeton Newport Partners), has a dim profile. In fact, from 1969 to 1988, the annualized returns of the two PNP funds reached 19.1% and 15.1% respectively, while the average annual growth rate of the S&P index during the same period was 10.2%. In the past 19 years, after two oil crises in the 1970s and the stock market crash in 1987, the two funds have never suffered a single-quarter loss, let alone an annual loss. In the world's largest casino, its performance is unparalleled, and its investment model is 20 years ahead of the wide customers who have filed into Wall Street since then.</p><p>In 1988, Thorp's fund was forced to close because it was implicated in the case of Milken, the king of junk bonds. It was in this year that Simons established the Medallion Fund. He is over 500 years old and can be described as a late bloomer. Before that, he had been groping for 10 years to find a successful investment model, and had been swinging between subjective and quantitative. Although the outside world has always regarded Simons as a master of quantitative investment, in fact, his role is completely different from Thorp's. His main job is not to develop quantitative models, but to dig all kinds of scientists from the academic circle to help the company develop quantitative models, and shape the company's corporate culture as a spiritual leader. As a world-class mathematician + excellent sales, he can deal with different people well, which is a rare ability.</p><p><b>The road to quantification</b></p><p>As a pioneer in quantitative trading, Thorp is good at hedging and arbitrage of various derivatives. The bear market and volatility in the 1970s made this strategy work perfectly. Relying on his mathematical talent and market sense, he discovered new blue oceans: Statistical Arbitrage and factor models-early quant prototypes. The risk under this model is theoretically infinite, especially the upper limit of losses for shorting those overvalued stocks is infinite. Thorp's main risk control strategy is diversified investment. Since then, LTCM has adopted a similar arbitrage model, but lacked a risk control strategy like Thorp and was defeated by the black swan. In order to improve investment efficiency, Thorp turned investment strategies into programs and once again became a pioneer in programmatic trading (Algorithm Trading).</p><p>Simons, in contrast, was less lucky. From early attempts at intuitive investing to trend-based momentum trading, reversal trading to continuous collection and mining of massive amounts of data, including data cleaning, signal mechanism and backtesting. In 1986, the model framework for identifying hidden price trends was used-in 1989, abnormal trading signals were used for short-term high-frequency trading-in 1992, it was changed to only a single model (key breakthrough), and then speech recognition experts helped make various technological breakthroughs (financial models have similarities with speech recognition), and the model has gone through a long process of iterative improvement. In the end, the important core competence of the model was developed: identifying the \"value of transactions\", including: the certainty of price trends, the weight trade-off between trading signals, and the judgment of the impact of trading based on signals on the market. This capability is particularly important for high-frequency full-variety trading.</p><p><b>Winning System: Probabilistic Thinking & Modeling Human Behavior</b></p><p>For Thorp, gambling and investment are games based on probability statistics, and the bet amount is allocated according to the winning percentage (fund management based on Kelly's law). The first major breakthrough of Medallion Fund also comes from the application of Kelly's law and shortening the trading frequency to make its trading more reflective of the law of large numbers. Medallion's system can make money as long as the winning rate is slightly above 50%, regardless of the profit or loss of every sale. Essentially, it is making money by taking advantage of the omissions and mistakes of other traders (market ineffectiveness). Humans are highly predictable in their behavior under high pressure, and they instinctively show panic. The premise of modeling is that humans will constantly repeat past behaviors. Soros once modeled human behavior with the philosophical theory of reflexivity, while Simons's team used data and algorithms to model human behavior to confirm the theory of behavioral finance.</p><p>Unlike traditional value investing, which simplifies the market into a market gentleman, the experience of quantitative investing is that there are far more factors and variables that affect financial markets and investments than most people realize, and the factors that lead to market ineffectiveness can even be said to be encrypted (Thorp spares no effort to refute the efficient market hypothesis in his book). Investors try to find the most basic driving factors, but what they are missing may be an entire dimension of information. Medallion Fund can't explain the logic behind every profit law, just as human beings can't understand Alpha Go, perhaps it exists at a higher latitude.</p><p>Models are abstractions and simplifications of the world, but models are not omnipotent. When data and desire conflict, even rational scientists cannot be completely rational. Simons' original intention was to create an algorithm-driven automatic trading system, which completely shielded human subjective judgment. However, in every crisis, he still couldn't help but intervene manually to reduce his dependence on signals and actively reduce his trading position. The results of the intervention were not very ideal. His colleague Patterson also said: \"<b>Never put too much trust in trading models. The basic mistake of LTCMs is to believe that the model is the truth. We never believe that our model can reflect the whole fact, it only reflects some of it</b>。”</p><p><b>Wide guest student</b></p><p>In fact, the intersection of many big guys is far beyond our imagination. For example, Thorp and Buffett played at the bridge table. After confirming that Buffett would eventually become the richest man in the United States, they decisively invested in BRK stock. Many people think that Xueba may not necessarily have a good life. After all, there is a huge gap between book smart and street smart, and the rules of the real world are much more complicated than those of schools. However, Thorp has practiced the way of thinking of applying abstract thinking to real life, which truly explains that \"a tough life doesn't need to be explained\". Academics, wealth and family are perfect, and he realized early that life itself is higher than making money. Compared with Thorp's splendid life, Simons's life has too many twists and turns. He is divorced, his two sons have suffered misfortune and betrayal by his partners. But in the end, I chose to make peace with life and devote myself to charity. From academic career to lenient students, I explored the true meaning of destiny in the ups and downs, and experience itself was the meaning. As Thorp said at the end of his autobiography: Life is like reading a novel or running a marathon. Reaching the finish line is often not so important, but the journey itself and the experience along the way are more precious.<b>You have dance.</b></p>","source":"lsy1625911325017","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Thorpe and Simmons: The legendary lives of two godfather investment tycoons</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThorpe and Simmons: The legendary lives of two godfather investment tycoons\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">SMARTMATRIX</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 17:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A Man for All Markets is the personal biography of Edward Thorp, the Chinese translation of \"The Man Who Beat All Markets\". Judging from Thorp's experience, from defeating casinos to entering Wall Street, OTC options, convertible bonds, stocks, futures and other derivatives, all Dabbled in, worthy of the name All Markets. Taleb says in the preface that his memoir reads like a thriller.</p><p>As a mathematical genius and the godfather of quantitative investment, he pioneered the introduction of probability theory, information theory, and computer programming into financial transactions, which influenced countless Quant bosses in later generations: Bill Gross, David Shaw, Ken Griffin... including the famous James Simons, whose Renaissance Technology company created the myth of the rate of return in financial history. Similarly, Simons' biography The Man Who Solved The Market records in detail the ups and downs of his and his team's conquest of the financial market.</p><p><b>Academic origin</b></p><p>When culture flourishes, people are outstanding. The so-called outstanding people, such as the Huxiang School since the late Ming Dynasty in China, made Hunan the cradle of revolutionaries. In the academic circle, there is a similar phenomenon. If you study the backgrounds of the two bosses carefully, you will find a lot in common. They were both born in the 1930s. They were gifted since childhood, in the academic circle, but they were all dedicated to money. They have two common alma maters: the University of California, Berkeley and MIT. The academics of both universities reached their peak after the war. One of the main reasons was the large-scale military scientific research activities (the famous Manhattan Project, cryptography, information theory and modern computers) spawned by World War II. Both Thorp and Simons happened to catch up with this wave of academic dividends. In the 1950s, Thorp was obsessed with studying roulette with Shannon, while Simons was still immersed in theoretical mathematics, which also made his academic achievements higher (Chern-Simons Theroy). In the 1960s, MIT became the center of the computer revolution, and mathematics and computers were the two keys to Wall Street, and Thorp was the lucky one to hold these two keys.</p><p><b>Casinos vs Wall Street</b></p><p>The popular story nowadays is that Thorp defeated the casino by using the law of large numbers and Kelly's formula, and he became the first person in history to be \"blacked out\" by Las Vegas casinos. By contrast, the hedge fund he founded, PNP (Princeton Newport Partners), has a dim profile. In fact, from 1969 to 1988, the annualized returns of the two PNP funds reached 19.1% and 15.1% respectively, while the average annual growth rate of the S&P index during the same period was 10.2%. In the past 19 years, after two oil crises in the 1970s and the stock market crash in 1987, the two funds have never suffered a single-quarter loss, let alone an annual loss. In the world's largest casino, its performance is unparalleled, and its investment model is 20 years ahead of the wide customers who have filed into Wall Street since then.</p><p>In 1988, Thorp's fund was forced to close because it was implicated in the case of Milken, the king of junk bonds. It was in this year that Simons established the Medallion Fund. He is over 500 years old and can be described as a late bloomer. Before that, he had been groping for 10 years to find a successful investment model, and had been swinging between subjective and quantitative. Although the outside world has always regarded Simons as a master of quantitative investment, in fact, his role is completely different from Thorp's. His main job is not to develop quantitative models, but to dig all kinds of scientists from the academic circle to help the company develop quantitative models, and shape the company's corporate culture as a spiritual leader. As a world-class mathematician + excellent sales, he can deal with different people well, which is a rare ability.</p><p><b>The road to quantification</b></p><p>As a pioneer in quantitative trading, Thorp is good at hedging and arbitrage of various derivatives. The bear market and volatility in the 1970s made this strategy work perfectly. Relying on his mathematical talent and market sense, he discovered new blue oceans: Statistical Arbitrage and factor models-early quant prototypes. The risk under this model is theoretically infinite, especially the upper limit of losses for shorting those overvalued stocks is infinite. Thorp's main risk control strategy is diversified investment. Since then, LTCM has adopted a similar arbitrage model, but lacked a risk control strategy like Thorp and was defeated by the black swan. In order to improve investment efficiency, Thorp turned investment strategies into programs and once again became a pioneer in programmatic trading (Algorithm Trading).</p><p>Simons, in contrast, was less lucky. From early attempts at intuitive investing to trend-based momentum trading, reversal trading to continuous collection and mining of massive amounts of data, including data cleaning, signal mechanism and backtesting. In 1986, the model framework for identifying hidden price trends was used-in 1989, abnormal trading signals were used for short-term high-frequency trading-in 1992, it was changed to only a single model (key breakthrough), and then speech recognition experts helped make various technological breakthroughs (financial models have similarities with speech recognition), and the model has gone through a long process of iterative improvement. In the end, the important core competence of the model was developed: identifying the \"value of transactions\", including: the certainty of price trends, the weight trade-off between trading signals, and the judgment of the impact of trading based on signals on the market. This capability is particularly important for high-frequency full-variety trading.</p><p><b>Winning System: Probabilistic Thinking & Modeling Human Behavior</b></p><p>For Thorp, gambling and investment are games based on probability statistics, and the bet amount is allocated according to the winning percentage (fund management based on Kelly's law). The first major breakthrough of Medallion Fund also comes from the application of Kelly's law and shortening the trading frequency to make its trading more reflective of the law of large numbers. Medallion's system can make money as long as the winning rate is slightly above 50%, regardless of the profit or loss of every sale. Essentially, it is making money by taking advantage of the omissions and mistakes of other traders (market ineffectiveness). Humans are highly predictable in their behavior under high pressure, and they instinctively show panic. The premise of modeling is that humans will constantly repeat past behaviors. Soros once modeled human behavior with the philosophical theory of reflexivity, while Simons's team used data and algorithms to model human behavior to confirm the theory of behavioral finance.</p><p>Unlike traditional value investing, which simplifies the market into a market gentleman, the experience of quantitative investing is that there are far more factors and variables that affect financial markets and investments than most people realize, and the factors that lead to market ineffectiveness can even be said to be encrypted (Thorp spares no effort to refute the efficient market hypothesis in his book). Investors try to find the most basic driving factors, but what they are missing may be an entire dimension of information. Medallion Fund can't explain the logic behind every profit law, just as human beings can't understand Alpha Go, perhaps it exists at a higher latitude.</p><p>Models are abstractions and simplifications of the world, but models are not omnipotent. When data and desire conflict, even rational scientists cannot be completely rational. Simons' original intention was to create an algorithm-driven automatic trading system, which completely shielded human subjective judgment. However, in every crisis, he still couldn't help but intervene manually to reduce his dependence on signals and actively reduce his trading position. The results of the intervention were not very ideal. His colleague Patterson also said: \"<b>Never put too much trust in trading models. The basic mistake of LTCMs is to believe that the model is the truth. We never believe that our model can reflect the whole fact, it only reflects some of it</b>。”</p><p><b>Wide guest student</b></p><p>In fact, the intersection of many big guys is far beyond our imagination. For example, Thorp and Buffett played at the bridge table. After confirming that Buffett would eventually become the richest man in the United States, they decisively invested in BRK stock. Many people think that Xueba may not necessarily have a good life. After all, there is a huge gap between book smart and street smart, and the rules of the real world are much more complicated than those of schools. However, Thorp has practiced the way of thinking of applying abstract thinking to real life, which truly explains that \"a tough life doesn't need to be explained\". Academics, wealth and family are perfect, and he realized early that life itself is higher than making money. Compared with Thorp's splendid life, Simons's life has too many twists and turns. He is divorced, his two sons have suffered misfortune and betrayal by his partners. But in the end, I chose to make peace with life and devote myself to charity. From academic career to lenient students, I explored the true meaning of destiny in the ups and downs, and experience itself was the meaning. As Thorp said at the end of his autobiography: Life is like reading a novel or running a marathon. Reaching the finish line is often not so important, but the journey itself and the experience along the way are more precious.<b>You have dance.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g5Zdx-uS3wl9QbsHZm1DVw\">SMARTMATRIX</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388d882133df2db2363aa871ff756c47","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g5Zdx-uS3wl9QbsHZm1DVw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124741749","content_text":"A Man for All Markets是Edward Thorp的个人传记，中文翻译《战胜一切市场的人》，从Thorp的经历来看，从打败赌场到进入华尔街，OTC期权、可转债、股票、期货等衍生品，全部涉猎，名副其实的All Markets。塔勒布在序言里说，他的回忆录读起来像一部惊悚小说。\n作为一个数学天才、量化投资教父级人物，他开创性的将概率论、信息论、计算机编程引入金融交易，影响了后世无数Quant大佬：Bill Gross、David Shaw、Ken Griffin...其中也包括大名鼎鼎的James Simons，后者的文艺复兴科技公司创造了金融史上的回报率神话，同样，讲述Simons的传记The Man Who Solved The Market，详细记录了他和他的团队征服金融市场的起起落落，虽是一位华尔街日报作家根据采访汇编而成，但其中不少以前从未披露过的精彩故事。\n学术源流\n文化兴，则人杰出，所谓的人杰地灵，比如中国明末以来的湖湘学派让湖南成为革命党人的摇篮。在学术圈，也有类似的现象。仔细研究两位大佬的背景，会发现很多共通点，他们都出生于30年代，自幼天赋异禀、身在学术圈但都一心向钱，有两个共同的母校：加州大学伯克利分校和MIT。两校的学术在战后都达到了巅峰，主要一个原因就是二战催生的大规军事科研活动（著名的曼哈顿计划、密码学、信息论和现代计算机），Thorp和Simons都恰好赶上了这波学术红利。50年代，Thorp醉心于和香农一起研究轮盘赌，而Simons仍埋头于理论数学问题，这也使得其在学术上的成就更高（Chern-Simons Theroy）。60年代，MIT成为计算机革命的中心，而数学和计算机正是通向华尔街的两把钥匙，Thorp正是手握这两把钥匙的幸运儿。\n赌场vs华尔街\n如今为人津津乐道的故事是Thorp利用大数定律和凯利公式打败了赌场，他也成了历史上第一个被拉斯维加斯赌场“拉黑”的人。相比之下，他创设的对冲基金PNP（Princeton Newport Partners）知名度黯淡不少。实际上，从1969年到1988年，PNP两支基金的年化收益率分别达到19.1%和15.1%，同期标普指数年均增长率为10.2%。19年间历经70年代两次石油危机、87年股灾，两只基金从未发生单季亏损，更没有年度亏损。在世间最大的赌场，其业绩冠绝其时，其投资模式，领先此后鱼贯进入华尔街的宽客们20年。\n1988年，Thorp的基金因为受到垃圾债券之王米尔肯一案的牵连被迫关闭。正是在这一年，Simons成立大奖章基金，已年过半百的他，可谓大器晚成，在此前为了寻找成功的投资模型已经摸索了10年之久，一直在主观和量化之间摇摆。尽管外界一直都把Simons视作量化投资大师，但实际上他点角色和Thorp完全不同，他的主要工作并不是开发量化模型，而是从学术圈挖掘各类科学家来帮助公司开发量化模型，并且作为精神领袖塑造公司企业文化。作为一名世界级的数学家+卓越的销售，他与不同的人都能融洽的打交道，这是一种罕见的能力。\n量化之路\n作为量化交易的先驱，Thorp擅长各种衍生品的对冲套利，70年代的熊市和波动率让这种策略运行的非常完美。依靠自己的数学天赋和市场嗅觉发现了新的蓝海：统计套利（Statistical Arbitrage）和因子模型（factors model）——早期的quant原型。这种模式下的风险理论上是无穷的，尤其是做空那些价格高估的股票的损失上限是无穷大，Thorp主要风控策略是分散化投资。此后的LTCM采用类似的套利模式，但缺少Thorp这样的风控策略，被黑天鹅击败。为了提升投资效率，Thorp将投资策略变成程序，再次成为程序化交易（Algorithm Trading）的先驱。\n相比之下，Simons就没那么幸运了。从早期尝试直觉投资到基于趋势的动量交易、反转交易再到持续收集挖掘海量数据包括数据清洗、信号机制和回溯测试。1986年使用识别隐藏价格趋势的模型框架——1989年利用异常交易信号进行短期高频交易——1992年改为只用单一模型（关键性突破），而后语音识别专家帮助进行各种技术突破（金融模型与语音识别有相似之处），模型经历了漫长迭代改进的过程。最终练就了模型重要核心能力：识别出“交易的价值”，包括：价格趋势的确定性大小、交易信号之间的权重取舍、根据信号进行交易对市场造成的影响的判断。这项能力对于高频全品种交易尤为重要。\n取胜系统：概率思考&对人类行为建模\n对Thorp来说，赌博和投资都是以概率统计为基础的游戏，根据胜率的大小来分配下注金额的大小（基于凯利法则的资金管理），而大奖章基金的第一次重大突破也来自于对凯利法则的运用以及缩短交易频率使其交易更体现大数定律。大奖章的系统只要胜率略高于50%就能赚钱，而不在乎每一笔买卖的盈亏。本质上，是在利用其他交易者的疏忽和错误赚钱（市场无效）。人类在高压下的行为具有很高的可预测性，他们会本能地表现出恐慌。建模的前提是人类会不断重复过去的行为。索罗斯曾以反身性的哲学理论对人类行为建模，而Simons的团队利用数据和算法对人类行为建模，以此印证行为金融学的理论。\n与传统的价值投资把市场面简化成一位市场先生不同，量化投资的经验是，影响金融市场和投资的因素和变量远远比大多数人意识到的更多，导致市场无效的因素甚至可以说是加密的（Thorp在书中对有效市场假说也不遗余力的进行驳斥）。投资者努力寻找最基本的推动因素，但是遗漏的也许是一整个维度的信息。大奖章基金无法对每一条盈利的规律背后的逻辑进行解释，就如同人类无法理解阿尔法围棋一样，也许是更高纬度的存在。\n模型是对世界的抽象和简化，但模型并不是万能的。当数据和欲望相冲突，即便是理性的科学家，也无法做到完全理性。Simons的初心是创建的算法驱动的自动交易系统，完全屏蔽人类的主观判断，但每一次危机，他仍忍不住会手动干预，减少对信号的依赖，主动缩减交易头寸，可干预的结果并不十分理想。他的同事帕特森也说：”永远不要对交易模型过于信任。长期资本管理公司的基本错误是认为模型就是事实真相，我们从未相信我们的模型能够反映全部事实，它只反映事实的一部分。”\n宽客人生\n其实很多大佬的交集，远远超过我们想象。比如Thorp和巴菲特在桥牌桌上过过招，在确认巴菲特最终会成为全美最富有的人之后，果断投资了BRK的股票。很多人以为，学霸不一定会拥有好人生，毕竟，book smart和street smart之间的有极大的鸿沟，现实世界的规则比学校要复杂太多，但Thorp践行了将抽象思维运用到现实生活中的思维方式，真正诠释了“彪悍的人生不需要解释”，学术、财富、家庭圆满，很早就意识到在生活本身高于赚钱。相比较Thorp精彩纷呈的人生，Simons的人生曲折太多，离过婚，他的两个儿子先后遭受不幸，还遭遇过伙伴背叛。但最终还是选择和生活讲和，并投身慈善事业，从学术生涯到宽客人生，在跌宕起伏中探寻命运的真谛，而经历本身就是意义所在。就像Thorp在自传末尾所说：生活像是读一本小说或者跑一场马拉松，到达终点往往不是那么重要，旅途本身和沿途的体验更为珍贵。No body can take away the dance you have danced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148628043,"gmtCreate":1625972797782,"gmtModify":1703751453982,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148628043","repostId":"1145907959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158414126,"gmtCreate":1625174114265,"gmtModify":1703737558866,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158414126","repostId":"1101876919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101876919","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625146718,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101876919?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 21:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] U.S. oil and gas stocks performed strongly, U.S. energy rose more than 12%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101876919","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月1日，美股油气股表现强势，美国能源涨超12%，西方石油涨超6%，墨菲石油涨超4%，卡隆石油、马拉松石油、南非萨索尔涨超3%，英国石油涨超2%，荷兰皇家壳牌、道达尔、雪佛龙涨超1%。\nOPEC+代表","content":"<p>On July 1, U.S. oil and gas stocks performed strongly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Rose more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MUR\">Murphy Oil</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">Caron Petroleum</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSL\">Sasol, South Africa</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>It rose more than 2%, and Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and Chevron rose more than 1%.</p><p>OPEC representative: OPEC will discuss increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and will discuss extending the oil supply agreement until the end of 2022.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85938213b5fedea867d61a1d8020cd7b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] U.S. oil and gas stocks performed strongly, U.S. energy rose more than 12%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] U.S. oil and gas stocks performed strongly, U.S. energy rose more than 12%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-01 21:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 1, U.S. oil and gas stocks performed strongly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Rose more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MUR\">Murphy Oil</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">Caron Petroleum</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSL\">Sasol, South Africa</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>It rose more than 2%, and Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and Chevron rose more than 1%.</p><p>OPEC representative: OPEC will discuss increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and will discuss extending the oil supply agreement until the end of 2022.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85938213b5fedea867d61a1d8020cd7b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"OXY":"西方石油","USEG":"美国能源"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101876919","content_text":"7月1日，美股油气股表现强势，美国能源涨超12%，西方石油涨超6%，墨菲石油涨超4%，卡隆石油、马拉松石油、南非萨索尔涨超3%，英国石油涨超2%，荷兰皇家壳牌、道达尔、雪佛龙涨超1%。\nOPEC+代表：OPEC+将讨论8-12月每月增产40万桶/日，并将讨论把石油供应协议延长至2022年底 。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USEG":0.9,"OXY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153613786,"gmtCreate":1625021042645,"gmtModify":1703850308078,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153613786","repostId":"1121871493","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121871493","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"走近最优秀的投资人，聆听客观表达的理性声音，只做最好的原创财富资讯，洞见独立思想，回归资本常识。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"聪明投资者","id":"1072656223","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f"},"pubTimestamp":1625020030,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121871493?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"What is the correct investment posture in the second half of the year? Looking for active opportunities in \"equilibrium\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121871493","media":"聪明投资者","summary":"2021年即将步入下半场，回顾上半年A股市场，虽然上证综指走势震荡，但整体呈现向上趋势。\n在2021年上半年策略报告中，诺亚财富曾指出：“2021年年初市场仍有走强机会，而随着货币政策逐步回归正常、市","content":"<p>2021 is about to enter the second half. Looking back at the A-share market in the first half of the year, although the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated, it showed an overall upward trend.</p><p>In the strategy report for the first half of 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOAH\">Noah Wealth</a>Zeng pointed out: \"The market still has opportunities to strengthen at the beginning of 2021, but as monetary policy gradually returns to normal and market financing pressure continues to increase, it will face repeated pressure from high volatility.\"</p><p>From the perspective of market trend, this judgment is more consistent with the final trend of the market.</p><p>Looking forward to the second half of 2021, how will the general trend of the capital market develop and in which areas will opportunities appear?</p><p>At the Noah Wealth Investment Strategy Conference for the Second Half of 2021 held on June 26, Dr. Xia Chun, Chief Economist of Noah Wealth, Jiang Qijia, Head of Noah Wealth's Major Asset Allocation Team, and Zhang Yihe, Head of Noah Wealth's Product Strategy Research Team, delivered keynote speeches respectively, sharing with investors Noah Wealth's prediction of the economic situation in the second half of the year and its views on major asset allocation strategies.</p><p>In the second half of 2021, the market will still show a volatile trend. After about a year of economic recovery, China and the United States may experience a slowdown in economic recovery momentum, while Europe and emerging markets still have an upward trend.</p><p>Regarding the current inflation risk, Noah Wealth believes that although the current inflation has brought certain difficulties to behavioral investment, the impact of inflation is only temporary, and these effects may be gradually resolved in the second half of the year. In addition, the impact of inflation on the consumer side is less than that on the production side.</p><p>Today, China is in a cycle of stable currency and tight credit, and there is a mismatch between demand and supply. In the future, the allocation logic of major asset classes will be different from the allocation logic under the typical recovery path (demand-driven recovery).</p><p><b>In terms of investment strategy, Noah Wealth has the following suggestions:</b></p><p>1.<b>Equity and bond balance, style balance</b></p><p>2.<b>Look at the duration strategy and appropriately increase the allocation of interest rate bonds; Continue to be optimistic about CTA's short and medium cycle trend following strategy</b></p><p>The following are the wonderful golden quotes and selected full-text records of Noah Wealth's investment strategy meeting in the second half of 2021:</p><p><b>Jiang Qijia: \"There are two major macroeconomic highlights in the second half of the year: first, can domestic demand take over external demand when exports fall from high levels; second, can the restoration of manufacturing and consumption in domestic demand hedge the decline of real estate and funds?\"</b></p><p><b>\"The credit spreads of low-grade credit bonds will continue to remain high and volatile</b>。<b>In terms of credit sinking strategies, the risks are still relatively high. \"</b></p><p><b>\"In the second half of the year, consumption will still be in a state of slow recovery. But with the gradual withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles, automobile consumption may weaken in the second half of the year.\"</b></p><p><b>Zhang Yihe: \"The current volatile market is conducive to actively managed stock funds making excess returns. In the selection of managers, we recommend choosing managers with solid research skills, balanced styles and strong stock mining capabilities.\"</b></p><p><b>\"In China, due to the high proportion of retail investors and the high deviation between price and value, it is conducive to quantitative strategies to make excess returns. The amount of alpha in China is relatively abundant.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The 10-year Treasury Bond yield has been flat or even downward in the near future, but the index representing commodity prices is going up during the same period. This deviation reflects a pessimistic view of the future economy. From the historical data point of view, once a deviation occurs, it often ends with both commodity prices and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling.\"</b></p><p><b>Xia Chun: \"Although the United States is facing a double fundamental deficit and its monetary policy is very loose, because its economic development is still better than other economies, we don't think the US dollar will depreciate quickly.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The velocity of money circulation will remain relatively low</b>。<b>The distribution of money is that a few people control a large amount of money, and a large amount of money is saved. Relatively few of them enter the real economy, and more of them go to the capital market. \"</b></p><p><b>\"Adhere to the'dumbbell strategy ', on the one hand, allocate leading technology stocks with strong profitability, and on the other hand, allocate those value and cyclical sectors that benefit from economic recovery.\"</b></p><p><b>Jiang Qijia: Interest rates may have room to decline</b></p><p><b>Gold price fluctuates downward</b></p><p><b>Focus on these sectors with structural opportunities</b></p><p>Hello audience friends, I am very happy to share with you Noah Wealth's investment strategy report for the second half of 2021. The theme of my speech today is macro and major assets.</p><p>This time, our theme is \"The wind is soft, the boat is steady, and the horse's hoof is light when the snow is exhausted\". The more straightforward meaning is,<b>The tone of asset allocation in the second half of the year is mainly balanced, which can be appropriately optimistic.</b></p><p><b>Let's summarize the two major macroeconomic highlights in the second half of the year: First, can domestic demand take over external demand when exports fall from high levels; Second, whether the recovery of manufacturing and consumption in terms of domestic demand can hedge the decline of real estate and funds.</b></p><p><b>● Real estate investment faces downward pressure</b></p><p>First of all, we start with the most basic<b>\"Troika of demand\"</b>(investment, consumption and exports) to extend.</p><p>Let's look at investment in fixed assets first. In the first half of the year, investment in fixed assets rebounded slightly, real estate investment was more resilient, and the manufacturing industry also rebounded slightly. In comparison, the infrastructure investment that undertook heavy responsibilities last year was in a state of marginal decline.</p><p>As real estate policies continue to tighten, we believe that<b>Real estate and infrastructure investment in the second half of the year may face downward pressure, and follow-up attention should be paid to manufacturing investment.</b></p><p>Since the third quarter of last year, the demand for loans in the manufacturing industry has continued to decline. We believe that there is a possibility of a decline in manufacturing investment in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>● Large consumption is recovering slowly, and automobile consumption may weaken</b></p><p>Consumption is the slowest to recover among the troika of demand, and the overall level is below the pre-epidemic level. Food and beverage investment was the strongest before the pandemic, but so far, its recovery is also the weakest.</p><p><b>In the second half of the year, consumption will still be in a slow recovery state.</b></p><p>The core reason for the weak consumption recovery is that under the repeated disturbance of the epidemic, the uncertainty about the follow-up has inhibited everyone's willingness to consume, and at the same time inhibited the consumption scenario.</p><p>But in the second half of the year, we should pay special attention to the main force responsible for the consumption rebound last year, namely automobile consumption. With the gradual withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles,<b>Auto consumption may weaken in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><b>● The total export volume is inconsistent with the global share</b></p><p>Next, let's look at the strongest exports. In the first half of the year, exports continued to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 10%, and the export situation was quite good.</p><p>But in the second half of the year, we may face<b>The race between the two forces of total exports and the global share of domestic exports,</b>The total volume of global exports may continue to rise, but our share may fluctuate downward.</p><p><b>● Demand is stronger than supply in the first half of the year, and some commodity prices will fall</b></p><p>After talking about demand, let's look at the supply situation. From the perspective of industrial added value, our production situation in the first half of the year was quite good.</p><p>However, from a month-on-month perspective, supply is in a state of month-on-month decline, and we expect that the decline may continue in the second half of the year.</p><p>As the production side weakens in the second half of the year, the boosting effect on PPI may gradually weaken.</p><p>Inflation in the first half of the year has been relatively divergent-<b>CPI is weak, but PPI is strong.</b></p><p>Although the core CPI rebounded slightly in the first quarter of this year, its growth rate is still at a very low level. But we have a higher PPI and very good production.</p><p>From the perspective of global supply and demand, there is still a certain mismatch.<b>Demand is stronger than supply</b>, which led to the situation that our PPI in May has risen to 9 year-on-year.</p><p>In the second half of the year, as global supply recovers, there are globally priced commodities, such as rebar, copper, crude oil, etc., and we think there will be a possibility of a decline.</p><p><b>We believe that PPI may slowly decline in the second half of the year.</b>We can also see that commodity prices have slowly begun to cool down.</p><p><b>● Focus on real estate post-cycle industries</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of housing prices, we believe that the trend of low volatility and low growth of housing prices has basically taken shape.</b></p><p>From the perspective of the supply side of real estate loans, with the introduction of the concentration management requirements of real estate loans, the tightening of bank loans is equivalent to putting a tight spell on real estate enterprises.</p><p>Is it true that the real estate industry is in a double-low trend, and there is no chance for investment in the real estate industry chain? We don't think so either. This year's real estate has seen a slow rise in the area of completed houses. We can continue to follow up<b>Pay attention to industries in the post-real estate cycle, such as property, home appliances, building materials, etc.</b></p><p><b>● The market structure is balanced in the second half of the year, and there are structural opportunities in these industries</b></p><p>The first half of this year was in a state of balance and shock. The industries that outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI All-Index were basically in a relatively average state. That is to say, almost half of the industries were able to outperform the CSI All-Index, which reflected the balance in the number of industries.</p><p>When the Shanghai Composite Index reached 6,124 points in 2007, the \"five golden flowers\" that took the lead at that time all returned to the Jianghu this year. Steel, mining, and chemical industries performed relatively well this year. However, the growth industries that performed well last year have shown a relatively differentiated situation this year.</p><p>In the first half of the year, from the perspective of consumption, medicine was stronger than food; From a technological perspective, technology-oriented sub-sectors such as electronics, innovative drugs, and biopharmaceuticals perform better, while industries such as TMT are relatively backward.</p><p><b>In the first half of the year, the overall increase of A shares was calm, but the style rotation was thrilling.</b></p><p>Will the market style continue in the second half of the year? Will there be a situation where the growth style strengthens again?</p><p>From the perspective of macro fundamentals, the small-cap style is relatively favorable; From the interest rate side, the short-term interest rate is relatively stable, but the long-term interest rate may have a downward process as the economic recovery weakens. From this appearance, we think that<b>In the second half of this year, the volatility of the growth style will be greater, and the overall performance of the growth style may not be as obvious as last year, and it is still a balanced pattern.</b></p><p>In terms of major industries,<b>For cyclical and technology industries, we feel that there are still structural opportunities with high cost performance</b>。</p><p>We have also seen that before, big stocks have always outperformed small stocks, but in the first half of this year, the performance of small-scale stocks is also slowly improving, so combined, we<b>Support the layout to second-tier blue chips</b>Conclusion of<b>, this PPT shows our suggestions for industry configuration in the second half of 2021</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22d4edb0dad640fd8c3476dedf490485\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the situation in the past few years, it is far better to participate in A-share investment by investing in funds than to speculate in stocks yourself. Judging from the situation in 2020, half of the stocks are actually falling, and only half of the stocks are rising.</p><p>However, partial stock funds that have been established for one year are basically rising. This year, investing in Public Offering of Fund is also stronger than investing in A shares.</p><p><b>● Interest rates may fall further</b></p><p>Let me briefly share it<b>Bond market in the second half of the year</b>Outlook. We are relatively optimistic about the bond market in the second half of this year.</p><p>Against the background of falling inflation, there may be room for further decline in the single interest rate level in the second half of the year. Compared with the historical situation, the long-term interest rate of the next 10-year Treasury Bond yield may still have room for 10-20 points to decline.</p><p>In the first half of this year, the downward trend of credit spreads of high-grade credit bonds was obvious, but low-grade credit bonds remained at the level of high credit spreads.</p><p>We believe that,<b>The credit spreads of low-grade credit bonds will remain high and fluctuate in the second half of the year</b>。 In terms of credit sinking strategy, the risk is still relatively large.</p><p><b>● Gold price fluctuates downward</b></p><p><b>Regarding the judgment of gold in the second half of the year, we believe that there will be a downward shock.</b></p><p>We can refer to the performance of gold prices during the Federal Reserve's taper tantrum in 2013. At the end of December 2013, although the Federal Reserve had not officially reduced its quantitative easing, or the scale of bond purchases, before that, the real interest rate had already shown a volatile upward trend. What followed was the result of the fluctuation and decline of gold prices.</p><p>Referring to the trend of 2013, although the rhythm may be somewhat different, in terms of the general trend, we think that this time the tapering panic of 2013 may also be repeated.</p><p>Finally, I will summarize the suggestions for the allocation of major assets in the second half of the year. Generally speaking, we<b>It is recommended that stocks, commodities, and real estate are all in neutral allocation, but it is relatively optimistic for bonds</b>。</p><p><b>Zhang Yihe: The current cycle is to \"stabilize currency and tighten credit\"</b></p><p><b>Focus on Active Equity Funds with Balanced Styles</b></p><p>Hello, Noah's investors, I'm Zhang Yihe from the Investment Consulting Department. Today, I bring you the product strategy for the second half of the year. My sharing will also be divided into three parts: long stocks, bonds, and quantitative strategies.</p><p>Looking back at the performance of different product strategies in the past, in 2020, stock long positions and commodity futures have made a lot of money, and the trend is relatively smooth. After the Spring Festival this year, with the adjustment of the A-share market, the profit-making effect is not as good as before.</p><p>So, how should we invest in the second half of the year?</p><p><b>● The current cycle is \"stable currency and tight credit\"</b></p><p>Famous<b>Merrill Lynch Clock</b>The model originated from a paper published by a researcher at Merrill Lynch in 2004. He divided the economic cycle into two dimensions: economic growth and inflation, corresponding to four economic cycles respectively-<b>Recovery cycle, overheating cycle, stagflation cycle and recession cycle.</b></p><p>Different cycles correspond to different types of investments, such as investing in stocks in the recovery cycle, investing in commodities in the overheating cycle, holding cash in the quality cycle, and holding bonds in the recession cycle.</p><p>We are now in a stage of economic growth, economic slowdown, and high inflation. Does it mean that many assets currently have no opportunity? The answer is definitely no.</p><p>The clock inspection effect of Merrill Lynch clock in the United States is good, but if it is used in China, it has certain problems. Because after 2012, the cyclicality of China's macroeconomic level has disappeared, and the GDP growth rate has been declining since 2012. If we look at the inflation cycle, after 2012, our CPI also lost its cyclical volatility.</p><p>Therefore, from this dimension, the guiding effect of Merrill Lynch clock gradually weakens.</p><p>Our research team, external brokerage investment research and other institutions are all using another set of theoretical basis-<b>Money plus credit model</b>。 It no longer divides the economic cycle from the two dimensions of economic growth and inflation, but from the two dimensions of looseness and tightness of money and credit.</p><p><b>Currently, we are in a cycle of stabilizing currency and tightening credit.</b>This cycle corresponds to the cycle of the Merrill Lynch clock similar to the cycle of stagflation.</p><p>At present, the rhythm of the People's Bank of China is not consistent with that of the Federal Reserve. In the past many years, the Federal Reserve has basically been the leader of global central banks. Now, the People's Bank of China is ahead of the Federal Reserve in tightening monetary policy. Basically, after May last year, we have already started to collect monetary policy.</p><p><b>● Choose an active manager with a balanced style and strong stock mining ability</b></p><p><b>Under the cycle of stable currency and tight credit, the performance of the stock market is often poor.</b>Is this no chance for stock bulls? Not really.</p><p>The rise and fall of stock funds in the past 16 years is different from the rise and fall of CSI 300 in the past 16 years.</p><p>In the past 16 years, the CSI 300 has risen for 9 years and fallen for 7 years, showing a mixed trend. However, stock funds have basically only lost money in 4 years in the past 16 years. These 4 years have certain characteristics, such as 2008, 2011, 2016 and 2018, which basically correspond to external risk shocks and Domestic central banks are rapidly tightening liquidity in the short term.</p><p><b>So don't be overly pessimistic when investing. Active fund managers can make excess returns in the market environment.</b></p><p>Under the market trend of skyrocketing and plummeting, actively managed funds do not have much advantage. If it's a mad cow, it may be better to just buy index funds.</p><p>When the market is in shock, actively managed stock funds can obtain obvious excess returns.</p><p>What are the sources of excess returns? Some managers can perform band operations through timing, some managers can choose the main strong styles in the market, and some managers have relatively strong stock selection capabilities and can choose strong stocks in a certain industry track.</p><p><b>The current volatile market is conducive to actively managed stock funds making excess returns.</b></p><p>There is no prominent main line in the recent market style. Whether it is a large-cap small-cap style or a value growth style, it is basically a relatively stable trend.</p><p><b>In the selection of managers, we recommend choosing managers with solid research skills, balanced style, and strong stock mining ability.</b></p><p><b>● The bond index is now rebounding, and it is recommended to deploy interest rate bonds, high-grade credit bonds, and partial debt hybrid funds</b></p><p>The performance of the bond market is relatively uncertain, and there are probabilities of bull market, bear market, and shock market. But we believe,<b>The bond market investment has a high winning rate, but the odds are not very certain.</b></p><p>Let's take a look at some recent indicators,<b>The 10-year Treasury Bond yield has been flat or even downward in the near future, but the index representing commodity prices has been rising during the same period. This deviation reflects a pessimistic view of the future economy. From the historical data point of view, once a divergence occurs, it often ends with both commodity prices and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling.</b></p><p>Therefore, we believe that the current bond market has certain allocation significance, especially the duration strategy.</p><p><b>For bond strategies, it is recommended to pay attention to interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds.</b></p><p>In recent months, the indexes of various bonds have experienced some phased rebounds. On the one hand, they have benefited from the upward trend of interest rate bonds brought about by the downward interest rate, and on the other hand, they have come from the coupon income of credit bonds. Therefore, the indexes of various bonds have performed relatively well recently.</p><p>But for the allocation of credit bonds, we still<b>It is recommended not to have too much credit sinking</b>, more inclined to make some high-grade credit bonds, because the debt risk in the market has not been lifted this year. For some bonds with relatively high risks, it is best for everyone to stay away from them to prevent the risk of stepping on thunder.</p><p>For stock-bond hybrid funds, we recommend<b>Layout debt-oriented hybrid funds</b>, because bonds are now more cost-effective.</p><p><b>● Recently, the commodity market is showing signs of adjustment, and we are optimistic about short-and medium-term trend tracking strategies</b></p><p>Finally, let's talk about quantitative strategies.</p><p>There are two meanings of allocating quantitative strategies. First, its position in the portfolio is difficult to be replaced by stocks and bonds. Adding assets with relatively low correlation into the portfolio is conducive to improving the risk-return ratio of the portfolio.</p><p>However, CTA strategy or market neutral strategy has relatively low correlation with traditional stock strategy and bond strategy. Adding them to the combination will have a very benign effect.</p><p>In addition, when the stock market fluctuates, the performance of CTA-managed futures categories is basically relatively stable, and some tail downside risks can also be hedged in the portfolio.</p><p><b>In China, there is still a relatively good soil for making excess returns.</b>If compared horizontally with quantification in the United States, it is very difficult for quantitative managers in the United States to make excess returns now, because the market is very mature and there are many institutional investors, so it is basically difficult for the market to make excess returns through quantitative strategies, whether it is machine learning or multi-factor.</p><p><b>In China, due to the high proportion of retail investors and the high deviation between price and value, it is conducive to quantitative strategies to make excess returns. The amount of alpha in China is relatively abundant.</b></p><p>Looking forward to the second half of the year, we believe that the mid-to long-term trend following strategy still has opportunities: if commodity prices reverse, it will be beneficial to the mid-to long-term tracking strategy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has shown signs of turning hawkish recently. As the Federal Reserve turns hawkish and relevant domestic authorities continue to suppress commodity prices,<b>Recently, there have been some signs of adjustment in the commodity market.</b></p><p>If the pace of the Fed's monetary policy shift in the second half of the year is determined, the commodity market may usher in a trend reversal. At that time, there will be a very good performance stage for the medium and long-term trend following strategy.</p><p>But at present we may be more<b>Optimistic about short-and medium-term trend tracking strategies,</b>This type of strategy relies more on the volatility of the futures market. Recently, the volatility of the futures market is at a very high position, which is very conducive to short-to medium-term and even high-frequency CTA strategies to make excess returns.</p><p><b>You can refer to the configuration suggestions in the table.</b></p><p><b>Xia Chun: RMB is relatively stable against the US dollar</b></p><p><b>Europe and emerging markets have opportunities</b></p><p><b>Future returns lie in earnings, not valuation</b></p><p><b>Focus on Value, Small Cap Stocks</b></p><p>Hello friends, today I would like to share with you our outlook for overseas macroeconomics and investment strategies in the second half of 2021.</p><p>Let's start by reviewing some of our views in the first half of 2021. We believe that,<b>The economic recovery and loose monetary policy in the first half of the year are very conducive to risky assets.</b></p><p>The main disturbance to the market in the first half of this year was inflation, but<b>Inflation is more obvious on the production side, but the impact on the consumption side is not obvious.</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, K-shaped reversals occurred within various assets, and K-shaped reversals are also an important keyword for investment strategies in the first half of 2021.</p><p>In the second half of the year, the change is about to begin, and we have to understand the change.</p><p><b>● Economic recovery momentum in some countries has slowed down</b></p><p>According to the macro and market trends in the second half of the year, the United States may face a slowdown in economic recovery momentum in the second and third quarters, and this phenomenon may occur in China in the second quarter.</p><p>On the contrary, in other places, such as European markets and emerging markets, their economic recovery is relatively moderate, so these places still maintain an upward trend.</p><p>On the whole,<b>Global economic activity conditions may be relatively stable, and there will be no huge rebound, and may remain stable or even relatively downward in the future</b>。</p><p>On the other hand,<b>It is more likely that global financial conditions will tighten in the second half of the year. Referring to history, the reversal of liquidity will have a relatively obvious impact on the market.</b></p><p>Inflation in the United States has increased more than expected in the past two months, and the Federal Reserve has also begun to become cautious and take inflation seriously, and will not let inflation run beyond expectations for too long. At the beginning of next year, the United States will reduce its bond buying actions.</p><p>China has also tightened its financial conditions. The data of M2 and social financing conditions have all fallen from their highs recently, which will make the market usher in relatively big changes in the second half of the year, and it is likely to cause some turmoil.</p><p>The current global macro situation can also be seen from some indicators. The index represented by the manufacturing industry has fallen from its high point. In addition to the manufacturing index, the earnings of the global market have also begun to gradually decline.</p><p>There is still a certain gap between vaccination in Europe and emerging markets and that in the United States and the United Kingdom, which is reflected in the backwardness of manufacturing production in specific production.</p><p><b>In the second half of the year, the United States and the United Kingdom may complete their vaccination plans, and the economy will undergo a certain transformation. For example, the manufacturing industry was very good in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the service industry may rise, and the strong demand of the manufacturing industry in the first half of the year slowed down in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>But there is still an ongoing vaccination process in Europe and emerging markets and a process of economic recovery.</p><p>Overall,<b>The global economic growth rate will basically fall from the high point in the second half of 2021 or early 2022, and the economic growth gap between emerging markets and developed countries will gradually shorten, that is, emerging markets will catch up with developed countries.</b></p><p><b>● Inflation is temporary and the velocity of money remains low</b></p><p>On the other hand, a particularly big factor affecting the market is inflation.</p><p>In 2011, the CPI in the United States rose rapidly at that time, but this upward process was only temporary, and it began to gradually decline in the second half of the year.</p><p>In the past, an important force driving inflation was the money supply. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 money supply in the United States has gradually declined from a high point.</p><p>After future economic normalization, we believe that<b>The velocity of money circulation will remain relatively low</b>。<b>The distribution of money is that a few people master a large amount of money, and a large amount of money is saved. Relatively few of them enter the real economy, and more of them go to the capital market.</b></p><p>The main uncertainty is that variants of the virus may bring new shocks to production and supply. However, once inflation increases more than expected, the Fed will still take decisive action. Therefore, I don't think the market needs to worry yet.</p><p><b>● Making money by valuation is \"outdated\", and profits will determine future returns</b></p><p>From different countries and regions,<b>Last year's returns mainly came from valuation changes</b>, last year's profits were basically negative, but based on forward-looking judgments, many regions still achieved good returns in 2020.</p><p>However, in the first half of this year, although the return was basically positive, it was mainly driven by changes in profits. Changes in valuation are basically in a contraction stage in 2021, and are likely to continue in the second half of the year, unless the valuation adjustment makes the company's valuation significantly lower than the original situation.</p><p>Most valuations have expanded greatly last year.<b>Next, earnings will determine the performance of future returns of listed companies in different countries.</b></p><p><b>● Pay attention to the development of emerging markets</b></p><p>In the process of paying attention to profits, we found that the market will be relatively more optimistic about emerging markets, Europe and Asia-Pacific, so we must capture the future growth opportunities brought by profits.</p><p>In the past period of time, the United States has shone its own way, but<b>In the future, it will become more difficult for listed companies in the United States to create more unexpected results again.</b></p><p>In emerging markets and Europe, at present, from the perspective of profitability alone, they are more likely to perform better, and the gap between year-on-year changes in profitability is relatively larger.</p><p>In the process of economic recovery, the traditional cyclical sector and the growth sector will have relatively different performances. In the past low economic growth and low interest rate environment, the growth sector performed better, while the value cycle sector was relatively backward; but<b>In the process of economic recovery, inflation is slowly heating up, and the cyclical sector will perform better than the growth sector.</b></p><p>Compared with Europe and emerging markets, the cyclical sector of the S&P 500 accounts for a relatively small proportion, and the growth sector accounts for a relatively high proportion. Therefore, in the future, from the perspective of profit performance, cyclical sector, and valuation,<b>We think there are more opportunities in the European market</b>。</p><p><b>● Value outperforms growth, small-cap outperforms large-cap</b></p><p>From the perspective of global value growth, there have been two big pullback/retracement in the past, one was the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000, and the other was the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008.</p><p>It has been almost more than a year since the epidemic last year. Now the performance of value is obviously better than growth, and this momentum can still be maintained within two years:<b>Value outperforms growth, and small caps outperform large caps.</b></p><p>Understanding this, it is easy to capture very good investment opportunities. The market fell to a low point in March last year. At that time, everyone considered the value of growth. With the economic recovery and the news that vaccines are effective, the market began to enter the value sector, and the performance of small caps gradually became obvious.</p><p><b>After these two big plunges in history, the situation that the small market is better than the large market, and the value is better than the growth has been maintained for two years.</b></p><p>Now, this possibility still exists. At present, the global economy has not yet entered a state of complete normalization. Once it is completely normalized, especially under certain inflationary pressure, the performance of value is better than growth, which is supported by a long historical data.</p><p>Of course, there are also some companies with very stable profits in the broader market, and they may perform better than large and small companies.</p><p><b>● The US dollar will not depreciate rapidly, and the RMB will perform steadily</b></p><p>On the issue of the US dollar, our view is that although the United States faces double fundamental deficits and its monetary policy is very loose, its economic development is still better than other economies, so we believe that<b>The dollar will not depreciate quickly</b>。</p><p>Regarding the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, we think it will remain between 6.3 and 6.7 in the second half of the year.</p><p>There are many factors driving the weakening of the U.S. dollar, but on the other hand, the U.S. economy is better than other economies, the yield of U.S. bonds is relatively higher than that of other developed economies, and the Federal Reserve is likely to reduce bond purchases in the second half of the year. These have also provided certain support to the U.S. dollar.</p><p>There are certain factors for the strengthening of the RMB, including the very good performance of China's economy, the purchase of Chinese assets by foreign capital, and the continuous inflow of stock and bond funds. But generally speaking, a strong RMB will also bring pressure on exports, and the dual-circulation policy will encounter certain obstacles.</p><p><b>Although the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, compared with some other currencies, there is basically no obvious change.</b></p><p>The central bank is still<b>Performance of pursuing the relative stability of RMB relative to a basket of currencies</b>, is not a deliberate pursuit of appreciation and depreciation against the US dollar.</p><p><b>In the current environment, we recommend that everyone adhere to the \"dumbbell strategy\", on the one hand, allocate leading technology stocks with strong profitability, and on the other hand, allocate value and cyclical sectors that benefit from economic recovery.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the correct investment posture in the second half of the year? Looking for active opportunities in \"equilibrium\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the correct investment posture in the second half of the year? Looking for active opportunities in \"equilibrium\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1072656223\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">聪明投资者 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2021 is about to enter the second half. Looking back at the A-share market in the first half of the year, although the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated, it showed an overall upward trend.</p><p>In the strategy report for the first half of 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOAH\">Noah Wealth</a>Zeng pointed out: \"The market still has opportunities to strengthen at the beginning of 2021, but as monetary policy gradually returns to normal and market financing pressure continues to increase, it will face repeated pressure from high volatility.\"</p><p>From the perspective of market trend, this judgment is more consistent with the final trend of the market.</p><p>Looking forward to the second half of 2021, how will the general trend of the capital market develop and in which areas will opportunities appear?</p><p>At the Noah Wealth Investment Strategy Conference for the Second Half of 2021 held on June 26, Dr. Xia Chun, Chief Economist of Noah Wealth, Jiang Qijia, Head of Noah Wealth's Major Asset Allocation Team, and Zhang Yihe, Head of Noah Wealth's Product Strategy Research Team, delivered keynote speeches respectively, sharing with investors Noah Wealth's prediction of the economic situation in the second half of the year and its views on major asset allocation strategies.</p><p>In the second half of 2021, the market will still show a volatile trend. After about a year of economic recovery, China and the United States may experience a slowdown in economic recovery momentum, while Europe and emerging markets still have an upward trend.</p><p>Regarding the current inflation risk, Noah Wealth believes that although the current inflation has brought certain difficulties to behavioral investment, the impact of inflation is only temporary, and these effects may be gradually resolved in the second half of the year. In addition, the impact of inflation on the consumer side is less than that on the production side.</p><p>Today, China is in a cycle of stable currency and tight credit, and there is a mismatch between demand and supply. In the future, the allocation logic of major asset classes will be different from the allocation logic under the typical recovery path (demand-driven recovery).</p><p><b>In terms of investment strategy, Noah Wealth has the following suggestions:</b></p><p>1.<b>Equity and bond balance, style balance</b></p><p>2.<b>Look at the duration strategy and appropriately increase the allocation of interest rate bonds; Continue to be optimistic about CTA's short and medium cycle trend following strategy</b></p><p>The following are the wonderful golden quotes and selected full-text records of Noah Wealth's investment strategy meeting in the second half of 2021:</p><p><b>Jiang Qijia: \"There are two major macroeconomic highlights in the second half of the year: first, can domestic demand take over external demand when exports fall from high levels; second, can the restoration of manufacturing and consumption in domestic demand hedge the decline of real estate and funds?\"</b></p><p><b>\"The credit spreads of low-grade credit bonds will continue to remain high and volatile</b>。<b>In terms of credit sinking strategies, the risks are still relatively high. \"</b></p><p><b>\"In the second half of the year, consumption will still be in a state of slow recovery. But with the gradual withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles, automobile consumption may weaken in the second half of the year.\"</b></p><p><b>Zhang Yihe: \"The current volatile market is conducive to actively managed stock funds making excess returns. In the selection of managers, we recommend choosing managers with solid research skills, balanced styles and strong stock mining capabilities.\"</b></p><p><b>\"In China, due to the high proportion of retail investors and the high deviation between price and value, it is conducive to quantitative strategies to make excess returns. The amount of alpha in China is relatively abundant.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The 10-year Treasury Bond yield has been flat or even downward in the near future, but the index representing commodity prices is going up during the same period. This deviation reflects a pessimistic view of the future economy. From the historical data point of view, once a deviation occurs, it often ends with both commodity prices and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling.\"</b></p><p><b>Xia Chun: \"Although the United States is facing a double fundamental deficit and its monetary policy is very loose, because its economic development is still better than other economies, we don't think the US dollar will depreciate quickly.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The velocity of money circulation will remain relatively low</b>。<b>The distribution of money is that a few people control a large amount of money, and a large amount of money is saved. Relatively few of them enter the real economy, and more of them go to the capital market. \"</b></p><p><b>\"Adhere to the'dumbbell strategy ', on the one hand, allocate leading technology stocks with strong profitability, and on the other hand, allocate those value and cyclical sectors that benefit from economic recovery.\"</b></p><p><b>Jiang Qijia: Interest rates may have room to decline</b></p><p><b>Gold price fluctuates downward</b></p><p><b>Focus on these sectors with structural opportunities</b></p><p>Hello audience friends, I am very happy to share with you Noah Wealth's investment strategy report for the second half of 2021. The theme of my speech today is macro and major assets.</p><p>This time, our theme is \"The wind is soft, the boat is steady, and the horse's hoof is light when the snow is exhausted\". The more straightforward meaning is,<b>The tone of asset allocation in the second half of the year is mainly balanced, which can be appropriately optimistic.</b></p><p><b>Let's summarize the two major macroeconomic highlights in the second half of the year: First, can domestic demand take over external demand when exports fall from high levels; Second, whether the recovery of manufacturing and consumption in terms of domestic demand can hedge the decline of real estate and funds.</b></p><p><b>● Real estate investment faces downward pressure</b></p><p>First of all, we start with the most basic<b>\"Troika of demand\"</b>(investment, consumption and exports) to extend.</p><p>Let's look at investment in fixed assets first. In the first half of the year, investment in fixed assets rebounded slightly, real estate investment was more resilient, and the manufacturing industry also rebounded slightly. In comparison, the infrastructure investment that undertook heavy responsibilities last year was in a state of marginal decline.</p><p>As real estate policies continue to tighten, we believe that<b>Real estate and infrastructure investment in the second half of the year may face downward pressure, and follow-up attention should be paid to manufacturing investment.</b></p><p>Since the third quarter of last year, the demand for loans in the manufacturing industry has continued to decline. We believe that there is a possibility of a decline in manufacturing investment in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>● Large consumption is recovering slowly, and automobile consumption may weaken</b></p><p>Consumption is the slowest to recover among the troika of demand, and the overall level is below the pre-epidemic level. Food and beverage investment was the strongest before the pandemic, but so far, its recovery is also the weakest.</p><p><b>In the second half of the year, consumption will still be in a slow recovery state.</b></p><p>The core reason for the weak consumption recovery is that under the repeated disturbance of the epidemic, the uncertainty about the follow-up has inhibited everyone's willingness to consume, and at the same time inhibited the consumption scenario.</p><p>But in the second half of the year, we should pay special attention to the main force responsible for the consumption rebound last year, namely automobile consumption. With the gradual withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles,<b>Auto consumption may weaken in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><b>● The total export volume is inconsistent with the global share</b></p><p>Next, let's look at the strongest exports. In the first half of the year, exports continued to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 10%, and the export situation was quite good.</p><p>But in the second half of the year, we may face<b>The race between the two forces of total exports and the global share of domestic exports,</b>The total volume of global exports may continue to rise, but our share may fluctuate downward.</p><p><b>● Demand is stronger than supply in the first half of the year, and some commodity prices will fall</b></p><p>After talking about demand, let's look at the supply situation. From the perspective of industrial added value, our production situation in the first half of the year was quite good.</p><p>However, from a month-on-month perspective, supply is in a state of month-on-month decline, and we expect that the decline may continue in the second half of the year.</p><p>As the production side weakens in the second half of the year, the boosting effect on PPI may gradually weaken.</p><p>Inflation in the first half of the year has been relatively divergent-<b>CPI is weak, but PPI is strong.</b></p><p>Although the core CPI rebounded slightly in the first quarter of this year, its growth rate is still at a very low level. But we have a higher PPI and very good production.</p><p>From the perspective of global supply and demand, there is still a certain mismatch.<b>Demand is stronger than supply</b>, which led to the situation that our PPI in May has risen to 9 year-on-year.</p><p>In the second half of the year, as global supply recovers, there are globally priced commodities, such as rebar, copper, crude oil, etc., and we think there will be a possibility of a decline.</p><p><b>We believe that PPI may slowly decline in the second half of the year.</b>We can also see that commodity prices have slowly begun to cool down.</p><p><b>● Focus on real estate post-cycle industries</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of housing prices, we believe that the trend of low volatility and low growth of housing prices has basically taken shape.</b></p><p>From the perspective of the supply side of real estate loans, with the introduction of the concentration management requirements of real estate loans, the tightening of bank loans is equivalent to putting a tight spell on real estate enterprises.</p><p>Is it true that the real estate industry is in a double-low trend, and there is no chance for investment in the real estate industry chain? We don't think so either. This year's real estate has seen a slow rise in the area of completed houses. We can continue to follow up<b>Pay attention to industries in the post-real estate cycle, such as property, home appliances, building materials, etc.</b></p><p><b>● The market structure is balanced in the second half of the year, and there are structural opportunities in these industries</b></p><p>The first half of this year was in a state of balance and shock. The industries that outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI All-Index were basically in a relatively average state. That is to say, almost half of the industries were able to outperform the CSI All-Index, which reflected the balance in the number of industries.</p><p>When the Shanghai Composite Index reached 6,124 points in 2007, the \"five golden flowers\" that took the lead at that time all returned to the Jianghu this year. Steel, mining, and chemical industries performed relatively well this year. However, the growth industries that performed well last year have shown a relatively differentiated situation this year.</p><p>In the first half of the year, from the perspective of consumption, medicine was stronger than food; From a technological perspective, technology-oriented sub-sectors such as electronics, innovative drugs, and biopharmaceuticals perform better, while industries such as TMT are relatively backward.</p><p><b>In the first half of the year, the overall increase of A shares was calm, but the style rotation was thrilling.</b></p><p>Will the market style continue in the second half of the year? Will there be a situation where the growth style strengthens again?</p><p>From the perspective of macro fundamentals, the small-cap style is relatively favorable; From the interest rate side, the short-term interest rate is relatively stable, but the long-term interest rate may have a downward process as the economic recovery weakens. From this appearance, we think that<b>In the second half of this year, the volatility of the growth style will be greater, and the overall performance of the growth style may not be as obvious as last year, and it is still a balanced pattern.</b></p><p>In terms of major industries,<b>For cyclical and technology industries, we feel that there are still structural opportunities with high cost performance</b>。</p><p>We have also seen that before, big stocks have always outperformed small stocks, but in the first half of this year, the performance of small-scale stocks is also slowly improving, so combined, we<b>Support the layout to second-tier blue chips</b>Conclusion of<b>, this PPT shows our suggestions for industry configuration in the second half of 2021</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22d4edb0dad640fd8c3476dedf490485\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the situation in the past few years, it is far better to participate in A-share investment by investing in funds than to speculate in stocks yourself. Judging from the situation in 2020, half of the stocks are actually falling, and only half of the stocks are rising.</p><p>However, partial stock funds that have been established for one year are basically rising. This year, investing in Public Offering of Fund is also stronger than investing in A shares.</p><p><b>● Interest rates may fall further</b></p><p>Let me briefly share it<b>Bond market in the second half of the year</b>Outlook. We are relatively optimistic about the bond market in the second half of this year.</p><p>Against the background of falling inflation, there may be room for further decline in the single interest rate level in the second half of the year. Compared with the historical situation, the long-term interest rate of the next 10-year Treasury Bond yield may still have room for 10-20 points to decline.</p><p>In the first half of this year, the downward trend of credit spreads of high-grade credit bonds was obvious, but low-grade credit bonds remained at the level of high credit spreads.</p><p>We believe that,<b>The credit spreads of low-grade credit bonds will remain high and fluctuate in the second half of the year</b>。 In terms of credit sinking strategy, the risk is still relatively large.</p><p><b>● Gold price fluctuates downward</b></p><p><b>Regarding the judgment of gold in the second half of the year, we believe that there will be a downward shock.</b></p><p>We can refer to the performance of gold prices during the Federal Reserve's taper tantrum in 2013. At the end of December 2013, although the Federal Reserve had not officially reduced its quantitative easing, or the scale of bond purchases, before that, the real interest rate had already shown a volatile upward trend. What followed was the result of the fluctuation and decline of gold prices.</p><p>Referring to the trend of 2013, although the rhythm may be somewhat different, in terms of the general trend, we think that this time the tapering panic of 2013 may also be repeated.</p><p>Finally, I will summarize the suggestions for the allocation of major assets in the second half of the year. Generally speaking, we<b>It is recommended that stocks, commodities, and real estate are all in neutral allocation, but it is relatively optimistic for bonds</b>。</p><p><b>Zhang Yihe: The current cycle is to \"stabilize currency and tighten credit\"</b></p><p><b>Focus on Active Equity Funds with Balanced Styles</b></p><p>Hello, Noah's investors, I'm Zhang Yihe from the Investment Consulting Department. Today, I bring you the product strategy for the second half of the year. My sharing will also be divided into three parts: long stocks, bonds, and quantitative strategies.</p><p>Looking back at the performance of different product strategies in the past, in 2020, stock long positions and commodity futures have made a lot of money, and the trend is relatively smooth. After the Spring Festival this year, with the adjustment of the A-share market, the profit-making effect is not as good as before.</p><p>So, how should we invest in the second half of the year?</p><p><b>● The current cycle is \"stable currency and tight credit\"</b></p><p>Famous<b>Merrill Lynch Clock</b>The model originated from a paper published by a researcher at Merrill Lynch in 2004. He divided the economic cycle into two dimensions: economic growth and inflation, corresponding to four economic cycles respectively-<b>Recovery cycle, overheating cycle, stagflation cycle and recession cycle.</b></p><p>Different cycles correspond to different types of investments, such as investing in stocks in the recovery cycle, investing in commodities in the overheating cycle, holding cash in the quality cycle, and holding bonds in the recession cycle.</p><p>We are now in a stage of economic growth, economic slowdown, and high inflation. Does it mean that many assets currently have no opportunity? The answer is definitely no.</p><p>The clock inspection effect of Merrill Lynch clock in the United States is good, but if it is used in China, it has certain problems. Because after 2012, the cyclicality of China's macroeconomic level has disappeared, and the GDP growth rate has been declining since 2012. If we look at the inflation cycle, after 2012, our CPI also lost its cyclical volatility.</p><p>Therefore, from this dimension, the guiding effect of Merrill Lynch clock gradually weakens.</p><p>Our research team, external brokerage investment research and other institutions are all using another set of theoretical basis-<b>Money plus credit model</b>。 It no longer divides the economic cycle from the two dimensions of economic growth and inflation, but from the two dimensions of looseness and tightness of money and credit.</p><p><b>Currently, we are in a cycle of stabilizing currency and tightening credit.</b>This cycle corresponds to the cycle of the Merrill Lynch clock similar to the cycle of stagflation.</p><p>At present, the rhythm of the People's Bank of China is not consistent with that of the Federal Reserve. In the past many years, the Federal Reserve has basically been the leader of global central banks. Now, the People's Bank of China is ahead of the Federal Reserve in tightening monetary policy. Basically, after May last year, we have already started to collect monetary policy.</p><p><b>● Choose an active manager with a balanced style and strong stock mining ability</b></p><p><b>Under the cycle of stable currency and tight credit, the performance of the stock market is often poor.</b>Is this no chance for stock bulls? Not really.</p><p>The rise and fall of stock funds in the past 16 years is different from the rise and fall of CSI 300 in the past 16 years.</p><p>In the past 16 years, the CSI 300 has risen for 9 years and fallen for 7 years, showing a mixed trend. However, stock funds have basically only lost money in 4 years in the past 16 years. These 4 years have certain characteristics, such as 2008, 2011, 2016 and 2018, which basically correspond to external risk shocks and Domestic central banks are rapidly tightening liquidity in the short term.</p><p><b>So don't be overly pessimistic when investing. Active fund managers can make excess returns in the market environment.</b></p><p>Under the market trend of skyrocketing and plummeting, actively managed funds do not have much advantage. If it's a mad cow, it may be better to just buy index funds.</p><p>When the market is in shock, actively managed stock funds can obtain obvious excess returns.</p><p>What are the sources of excess returns? Some managers can perform band operations through timing, some managers can choose the main strong styles in the market, and some managers have relatively strong stock selection capabilities and can choose strong stocks in a certain industry track.</p><p><b>The current volatile market is conducive to actively managed stock funds making excess returns.</b></p><p>There is no prominent main line in the recent market style. Whether it is a large-cap small-cap style or a value growth style, it is basically a relatively stable trend.</p><p><b>In the selection of managers, we recommend choosing managers with solid research skills, balanced style, and strong stock mining ability.</b></p><p><b>● The bond index is now rebounding, and it is recommended to deploy interest rate bonds, high-grade credit bonds, and partial debt hybrid funds</b></p><p>The performance of the bond market is relatively uncertain, and there are probabilities of bull market, bear market, and shock market. But we believe,<b>The bond market investment has a high winning rate, but the odds are not very certain.</b></p><p>Let's take a look at some recent indicators,<b>The 10-year Treasury Bond yield has been flat or even downward in the near future, but the index representing commodity prices has been rising during the same period. This deviation reflects a pessimistic view of the future economy. From the historical data point of view, once a divergence occurs, it often ends with both commodity prices and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling.</b></p><p>Therefore, we believe that the current bond market has certain allocation significance, especially the duration strategy.</p><p><b>For bond strategies, it is recommended to pay attention to interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds.</b></p><p>In recent months, the indexes of various bonds have experienced some phased rebounds. On the one hand, they have benefited from the upward trend of interest rate bonds brought about by the downward interest rate, and on the other hand, they have come from the coupon income of credit bonds. Therefore, the indexes of various bonds have performed relatively well recently.</p><p>But for the allocation of credit bonds, we still<b>It is recommended not to have too much credit sinking</b>, more inclined to make some high-grade credit bonds, because the debt risk in the market has not been lifted this year. For some bonds with relatively high risks, it is best for everyone to stay away from them to prevent the risk of stepping on thunder.</p><p>For stock-bond hybrid funds, we recommend<b>Layout debt-oriented hybrid funds</b>, because bonds are now more cost-effective.</p><p><b>● Recently, the commodity market is showing signs of adjustment, and we are optimistic about short-and medium-term trend tracking strategies</b></p><p>Finally, let's talk about quantitative strategies.</p><p>There are two meanings of allocating quantitative strategies. First, its position in the portfolio is difficult to be replaced by stocks and bonds. Adding assets with relatively low correlation into the portfolio is conducive to improving the risk-return ratio of the portfolio.</p><p>However, CTA strategy or market neutral strategy has relatively low correlation with traditional stock strategy and bond strategy. Adding them to the combination will have a very benign effect.</p><p>In addition, when the stock market fluctuates, the performance of CTA-managed futures categories is basically relatively stable, and some tail downside risks can also be hedged in the portfolio.</p><p><b>In China, there is still a relatively good soil for making excess returns.</b>If compared horizontally with quantification in the United States, it is very difficult for quantitative managers in the United States to make excess returns now, because the market is very mature and there are many institutional investors, so it is basically difficult for the market to make excess returns through quantitative strategies, whether it is machine learning or multi-factor.</p><p><b>In China, due to the high proportion of retail investors and the high deviation between price and value, it is conducive to quantitative strategies to make excess returns. The amount of alpha in China is relatively abundant.</b></p><p>Looking forward to the second half of the year, we believe that the mid-to long-term trend following strategy still has opportunities: if commodity prices reverse, it will be beneficial to the mid-to long-term tracking strategy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has shown signs of turning hawkish recently. As the Federal Reserve turns hawkish and relevant domestic authorities continue to suppress commodity prices,<b>Recently, there have been some signs of adjustment in the commodity market.</b></p><p>If the pace of the Fed's monetary policy shift in the second half of the year is determined, the commodity market may usher in a trend reversal. At that time, there will be a very good performance stage for the medium and long-term trend following strategy.</p><p>But at present we may be more<b>Optimistic about short-and medium-term trend tracking strategies,</b>This type of strategy relies more on the volatility of the futures market. Recently, the volatility of the futures market is at a very high position, which is very conducive to short-to medium-term and even high-frequency CTA strategies to make excess returns.</p><p><b>You can refer to the configuration suggestions in the table.</b></p><p><b>Xia Chun: RMB is relatively stable against the US dollar</b></p><p><b>Europe and emerging markets have opportunities</b></p><p><b>Future returns lie in earnings, not valuation</b></p><p><b>Focus on Value, Small Cap Stocks</b></p><p>Hello friends, today I would like to share with you our outlook for overseas macroeconomics and investment strategies in the second half of 2021.</p><p>Let's start by reviewing some of our views in the first half of 2021. We believe that,<b>The economic recovery and loose monetary policy in the first half of the year are very conducive to risky assets.</b></p><p>The main disturbance to the market in the first half of this year was inflation, but<b>Inflation is more obvious on the production side, but the impact on the consumption side is not obvious.</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, K-shaped reversals occurred within various assets, and K-shaped reversals are also an important keyword for investment strategies in the first half of 2021.</p><p>In the second half of the year, the change is about to begin, and we have to understand the change.</p><p><b>● Economic recovery momentum in some countries has slowed down</b></p><p>According to the macro and market trends in the second half of the year, the United States may face a slowdown in economic recovery momentum in the second and third quarters, and this phenomenon may occur in China in the second quarter.</p><p>On the contrary, in other places, such as European markets and emerging markets, their economic recovery is relatively moderate, so these places still maintain an upward trend.</p><p>On the whole,<b>Global economic activity conditions may be relatively stable, and there will be no huge rebound, and may remain stable or even relatively downward in the future</b>。</p><p>On the other hand,<b>It is more likely that global financial conditions will tighten in the second half of the year. Referring to history, the reversal of liquidity will have a relatively obvious impact on the market.</b></p><p>Inflation in the United States has increased more than expected in the past two months, and the Federal Reserve has also begun to become cautious and take inflation seriously, and will not let inflation run beyond expectations for too long. At the beginning of next year, the United States will reduce its bond buying actions.</p><p>China has also tightened its financial conditions. The data of M2 and social financing conditions have all fallen from their highs recently, which will make the market usher in relatively big changes in the second half of the year, and it is likely to cause some turmoil.</p><p>The current global macro situation can also be seen from some indicators. The index represented by the manufacturing industry has fallen from its high point. In addition to the manufacturing index, the earnings of the global market have also begun to gradually decline.</p><p>There is still a certain gap between vaccination in Europe and emerging markets and that in the United States and the United Kingdom, which is reflected in the backwardness of manufacturing production in specific production.</p><p><b>In the second half of the year, the United States and the United Kingdom may complete their vaccination plans, and the economy will undergo a certain transformation. For example, the manufacturing industry was very good in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the service industry may rise, and the strong demand of the manufacturing industry in the first half of the year slowed down in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>But there is still an ongoing vaccination process in Europe and emerging markets and a process of economic recovery.</p><p>Overall,<b>The global economic growth rate will basically fall from the high point in the second half of 2021 or early 2022, and the economic growth gap between emerging markets and developed countries will gradually shorten, that is, emerging markets will catch up with developed countries.</b></p><p><b>● Inflation is temporary and the velocity of money remains low</b></p><p>On the other hand, a particularly big factor affecting the market is inflation.</p><p>In 2011, the CPI in the United States rose rapidly at that time, but this upward process was only temporary, and it began to gradually decline in the second half of the year.</p><p>In the past, an important force driving inflation was the money supply. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 money supply in the United States has gradually declined from a high point.</p><p>After future economic normalization, we believe that<b>The velocity of money circulation will remain relatively low</b>。<b>The distribution of money is that a few people master a large amount of money, and a large amount of money is saved. Relatively few of them enter the real economy, and more of them go to the capital market.</b></p><p>The main uncertainty is that variants of the virus may bring new shocks to production and supply. However, once inflation increases more than expected, the Fed will still take decisive action. Therefore, I don't think the market needs to worry yet.</p><p><b>● Making money by valuation is \"outdated\", and profits will determine future returns</b></p><p>From different countries and regions,<b>Last year's returns mainly came from valuation changes</b>, last year's profits were basically negative, but based on forward-looking judgments, many regions still achieved good returns in 2020.</p><p>However, in the first half of this year, although the return was basically positive, it was mainly driven by changes in profits. Changes in valuation are basically in a contraction stage in 2021, and are likely to continue in the second half of the year, unless the valuation adjustment makes the company's valuation significantly lower than the original situation.</p><p>Most valuations have expanded greatly last year.<b>Next, earnings will determine the performance of future returns of listed companies in different countries.</b></p><p><b>● Pay attention to the development of emerging markets</b></p><p>In the process of paying attention to profits, we found that the market will be relatively more optimistic about emerging markets, Europe and Asia-Pacific, so we must capture the future growth opportunities brought by profits.</p><p>In the past period of time, the United States has shone its own way, but<b>In the future, it will become more difficult for listed companies in the United States to create more unexpected results again.</b></p><p>In emerging markets and Europe, at present, from the perspective of profitability alone, they are more likely to perform better, and the gap between year-on-year changes in profitability is relatively larger.</p><p>In the process of economic recovery, the traditional cyclical sector and the growth sector will have relatively different performances. In the past low economic growth and low interest rate environment, the growth sector performed better, while the value cycle sector was relatively backward; but<b>In the process of economic recovery, inflation is slowly heating up, and the cyclical sector will perform better than the growth sector.</b></p><p>Compared with Europe and emerging markets, the cyclical sector of the S&P 500 accounts for a relatively small proportion, and the growth sector accounts for a relatively high proportion. Therefore, in the future, from the perspective of profit performance, cyclical sector, and valuation,<b>We think there are more opportunities in the European market</b>。</p><p><b>● Value outperforms growth, small-cap outperforms large-cap</b></p><p>From the perspective of global value growth, there have been two big pullback/retracement in the past, one was the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000, and the other was the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008.</p><p>It has been almost more than a year since the epidemic last year. Now the performance of value is obviously better than growth, and this momentum can still be maintained within two years:<b>Value outperforms growth, and small caps outperform large caps.</b></p><p>Understanding this, it is easy to capture very good investment opportunities. The market fell to a low point in March last year. At that time, everyone considered the value of growth. With the economic recovery and the news that vaccines are effective, the market began to enter the value sector, and the performance of small caps gradually became obvious.</p><p><b>After these two big plunges in history, the situation that the small market is better than the large market, and the value is better than the growth has been maintained for two years.</b></p><p>Now, this possibility still exists. At present, the global economy has not yet entered a state of complete normalization. Once it is completely normalized, especially under certain inflationary pressure, the performance of value is better than growth, which is supported by a long historical data.</p><p>Of course, there are also some companies with very stable profits in the broader market, and they may perform better than large and small companies.</p><p><b>● The US dollar will not depreciate rapidly, and the RMB will perform steadily</b></p><p>On the issue of the US dollar, our view is that although the United States faces double fundamental deficits and its monetary policy is very loose, its economic development is still better than other economies, so we believe that<b>The dollar will not depreciate quickly</b>。</p><p>Regarding the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, we think it will remain between 6.3 and 6.7 in the second half of the year.</p><p>There are many factors driving the weakening of the U.S. dollar, but on the other hand, the U.S. economy is better than other economies, the yield of U.S. bonds is relatively higher than that of other developed economies, and the Federal Reserve is likely to reduce bond purchases in the second half of the year. These have also provided certain support to the U.S. dollar.</p><p>There are certain factors for the strengthening of the RMB, including the very good performance of China's economy, the purchase of Chinese assets by foreign capital, and the continuous inflow of stock and bond funds. But generally speaking, a strong RMB will also bring pressure on exports, and the dual-circulation policy will encounter certain obstacles.</p><p><b>Although the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, compared with some other currencies, there is basically no obvious change.</b></p><p>The central bank is still<b>Performance of pursuing the relative stability of RMB relative to a basket of currencies</b>, is not a deliberate pursuit of appreciation and depreciation against the US dollar.</p><p><b>In the current environment, we recommend that everyone adhere to the \"dumbbell strategy\", on the one hand, allocate leading technology stocks with strong profitability, and on the other hand, allocate value and cyclical sectors that benefit from economic recovery.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121871493","content_text":"2021年即将步入下半场，回顾上半年A股市场，虽然上证综指走势震荡，但整体呈现向上趋势。\n在2021年上半年策略报告中，诺亚财富曾指出：“2021年年初市场仍有走强机会，而随着货币政策逐步回归正常、市场融资压力的不断加大，将面临高位震荡反复压力”。\n从市场走势来看，这一判断与市场的最终走势较为吻合。\n展望2021年下半场，资本市场的大趋势将如何发展、机会又会出现在哪些领域？\n在6月26日举办的诺亚财富2021下半年投资策略会上，诺亚财富首席经济学家夏春博士、诺亚财富大类资产配置团队负责人姜奇甲、诺亚财富产品策略研究团队负责人张一鹤分别发表了主题演讲，与投资人分享了诺亚财富对下半年经济形势的预判和大类资产配置策略的看法。\n2021年下半年，市场仍将呈现震荡趋势。经过一年左右的经济复苏，中国、美国或将出现经济复苏动能减缓，而欧洲、新兴市场仍有上升趋势。\n对于目前的通胀风险，诺亚财富认为，尽管目前通胀上行为投资带来了一定难度，但是通胀的影响只是暂时的，这些影响可能在下半年都会逐步化解。另外，通胀对消费端的影响小于对于生产端的影响。\n如今，中国处于稳货币、紧信用的周期内，需求与供给存在错配现象。未来一段时间内，大类资产的配置逻辑与典型的复苏路径（需求推动型复苏）下的配置逻辑有所不同。\n在投资策略方面，诺亚财富有以下建议：\n1.股债均衡、风格均衡\n2.看好久期策略，适当增加利率债配置；继续看好CTA中短周期趋势跟踪策略\n以下是诺亚财富2021下半年投资策略会的精彩金句和精选全文实录：\n姜奇甲：“下半年的宏观经济有两大看点：第一，出口高位回落下，内需能不能接棒外需；第二，内需方面的制造业和消费的修复，能否对冲地产和基金的回落。”\n“低等级信用债的信用利差维持高位震荡的情况还会持续。在信用下沉策略上，风险还是比较大的。”\n“下半年，消费仍然会处在缓慢复苏的状态。但随着新能源汽车补贴的逐渐退出，下半年的汽车消费可能会走弱。”\n张一鹤：“目前偏震荡的行情，有利于主动管理型的股票基金做出超额收益。在管理人的选择上，我们建议选择有扎实的研究功底的、风格偏均衡、个股挖掘能力强的管理人。”\n“在中国，由于散户占比比较高，价格与价值的偏离度较高，所以有利于量化策略做出超额收益，中国的阿尔法的量是比较丰富的。”\n“10年期国债收益率在近期是走平甚至是向下的，但是同期代表商品价格的指数在往上走，这样的背离反映了对于未来经济的偏悲观的看法。从历史数据上来看，一旦发生背离，往往最后会以商品价格和10年期国债收益率双双下行为终结。”\n夏春：“美国虽然面临着基本面双赤字，货币政策非常宽松，但是由于它的经济发展还是较其他经济体好，所以我们认为美元不会快速贬值。”\n“货币流通速度还会保持在相对低的水平。货币的分配是少数人掌握了大量的货币，大量的货币被储蓄起来，进入到实体经济的相对较少，更多去到了资本市场。”\n“坚持‘哑铃策略’，一方面配置盈利能力强的龙头科技股，另外一方面要配置那些受益于经济复苏的价值和周期板块。”\n姜奇甲：利率或有下降空间\n金价震荡下行\n关注这些有结构性机会的行业\n各位观众朋友们大家好，非常高兴能跟大家分享诺亚财富2021年下半年的投资策略报告。我今天演讲的主题是宏观与大类资产。\n这一次我们的主题是“风软扁舟稳，雪尽马蹄轻”。比较直白的意思是，下半年的资产配置基调以均衡为主，可以适当乐观。\n总结一下下半年的宏观经济的两大看点：第一，出口高位回落下，内需能不能接棒外需；第二，内需方面的制造业和消费的修复，能否对冲地产和基金的回落。\n●地产投资面临下行压力\n首先我们从最基本的“需求的三驾马车”（投资、消费和出口）上做延展。\n先看固定资产的投资，上半年固定资产投资小幅回升，地产投资韧性较强，制造业也小幅回升。相比而言，去年承担重任的基建投资是在边际回落的状态。\n在房地产政策持续收紧的状态下，我们认为下半年的地产和基建投资可能会面临下行的压力，后续要关注制造业的投资。\n从去年的三季度开始，制造业的贷款需求已经持续处在回落的状态了。我们认为，下半年制造业投资存在回落的可能性。\n●大消费缓慢复苏，汽车消费或走弱\n消费在需求的三驾马车里是修复最为缓慢的，整体水平处在疫情前的水平的下方。餐饮投资在疫情前是最强的，但是到目前为止，它的恢复也是最弱的。\n下半年，消费仍然会处在缓慢复苏的状态。\n消费修复疲软的核心的原因是，大家在疫情反复扰动的情况下，对后续的不确定性抑制了大家的消费的意愿，同时也抑制了消费的场景。\n但是在下半年我们要特别注意的是去年承担消费反弹的主力军，即汽车消费。随着新能源汽车补贴的逐渐退出，下半年的汽车消费可能会走弱。\n●出口总量与全球份额占比不一致\n接下来再看最为强劲的出口，上半年的出口持续保持在10%的同比增速的水平，出口的情况是相当好的。\n但是下半年，我们可能会面临出口的总量和国内出口占全球份额的两种力量之间的赛跑，可能全球的出口的总量持续往上，但是我们的份额却可能是波动向下。\n●上半年需求比供给更强，部分商品价格将回落\n讲完需求，我们再来看一下供给的情况。从工业增加值的角度来看，我们上半年的生产情况还是相当好的。\n但是从环比的角度来看，供给处在环比下落的状态中，我们预计下降状态在下半年还有持续的可能性。\n下半年随着生产端走弱，对于PPI的助推作用可能也会慢慢的变弱。\n上半年的通货膨胀发生了相对背离的状态——CPI较弱，但是PPI较强。\n尽管核心CPI在今年的一季度有小幅反弹，但是它的增幅还是处在非常低的位置。但我们的PPI较高，生产非常好。\n从全球供需的角度来说，还是有一定错配的，需求比供给更强，导致了我们5月份 PPI的同比已经上升到9的情况。\n下半年，随着全球供给修复，有全球定价的商品，如螺纹钢、铜、原油等，我们觉得会有回落的可能。\n我们认为PPI在下半年可能会慢慢下行。我们也可以看到商品价格已经慢慢的开始降温了。\n●关注地产后周期行业\n从房价的角度来看，我们认为房价的低波动低增长的趋势已经基本形成了。\n从房地产贷款的供给端来看，随着房地产贷款集中度管理要求的出台，银行贷款收紧，相当于给房地产企业套了紧箍咒。\n是不是房地产行业处在双低的趋势下，房地产产业链投资就没有机会了？我们也不这么认为。今年的房地产的房屋竣工的面积出现了缓慢的上升。后续我们可以继续关注地产后周期的行业，如物业、家电、建材等。\n●下半年市场格局均衡，这些行业存在结构性机会\n今年上半年是均衡震荡的状态，跑赢上证指数、中证全指的行业，基本上是处在比较平均的状态，也就是说几乎一半的行业是能够跑赢中证全指，侧面反映了行业数量上的均衡。\n在2007年沪指到6124点的时候，当时打头阵的“5朵金花”，在今年都重出江湖，钢铁、采掘、化工，今年相对来说表现较好。而去年表现较亮眼的成长类行业，今年出现了相对分化的局面。\n上半年，从消费的角度来说，医药要强于食品；从科技的角度来讲，电子、创新药、生物药这些偏科技的子行业表现较好，而TMT这种行业比较落后。\n上半年，A股的整体涨幅波澜不惊，但是风格轮动惊心动魄。\n下半年的市场风格会不会延续？会不会出现成长风格重新走强的局面？\n从宏观基本面来看，小盘风格相对利好；从利率端讲，短端利率相对平稳，但是长端利率可能随着经济复苏的减弱还有向下的过程。从这个表观来看，我们认为今年下半年成长风格的波动性会较大，整体上成长风格的表现可能不如去年明显，还是均衡的格局。\n从大类行业上来讲，周期性、科技类的行业，我们觉得仍然有结构性的机会，性价比较高。\n我们也看到，之前一直都是大票跑赢小票，但今年上半年，小规模的股票的表现也在慢慢起来，所以结合起来看，我们支持向二线蓝筹布局的结论，这张PPT展现的是2021年下半年我们对于行业配置的建议。\n\n从过去几年的情况来看，用投资基金的方式来参与A股投资，要远远要好于自己去炒股票。从2020年的情况来看，有一半的股票实际上是处在下跌的状态，只有一半的股票是上涨。\n但是成立满一年的偏股型基金，基本都是上涨的。今年同样是投资公募基金比投资A股强。\n●利率或进一步下降\n我再来简单分享一下下半年债券市场的展望。对于今年下半年的债券市场，我们相对来说是比较乐观的。\n在通胀回落的背景下，下半年的单利率水平可能有进一步下行的空间。对比历史情况来看，未来10年期国债收益率的长端利率仍有可能有10-20个点的下降空间。\n今年上半年，高等级的信用债的信用利差回落趋势是比较明显的，但是低等级的信用债却是维持在了高信用利差的水平。\n我们认为，下半年低等级信用债的信用利差维持高位震荡的情况还会持续。在信用下沉策略上，风险还是比较大的。\n●金价震荡下行\n对于下半年的黄金的判断，我们认为会出现震荡下行的结果。\n我们可以参照一下2013年，美联储的缩减恐慌时期的金价表现。在2013年的12月底，尽管在这之前美联储还没有正式缩减量化宽松，或者说缩减购债规模，但是实际利率已经出现了震荡向上的趋势。随之而来的是金价震荡下跌的结果。\n参照2013年的趋势，虽然节奏上可能会有些不同，但是从大趋势上来讲，我们觉得这一次可能也会重演2013年的缩减恐慌。\n最后我总结一下下半年对于大类资产配置的建议，总体来说，我们对于股票、商品、房地产都处于中性配置的建议，对于债券相对来说比较乐观。\n张一鹤：目前的周期是“稳货币、紧信用”\n关注风格均衡的主动型股票基金\n各位诺亚的投资人大家好，我是投资顾问部的张一鹤，今天给大家带来的是对于下半年产品策略的部分，我的分享也会分成三部分：股票多头、债券、量化策略。\n回顾过往不同产品策略的表现，2020年股票多头、商品期货基上都是赚得盆满钵满，走势比较流畅。今年春节后，伴随着A股市场的调整，赚钱效应没有之前足了。\n那么，下半年应该怎么做投资？\n●当前的周期是“稳货币、紧信用”\n著名的美林时钟模型，源自于2004年美林证券一位研究员发表的一篇论文。他将经济周期从经济增长和通胀这两个维度做了切分，分别对应4个经济周期——复苏周期，过热周期，滞涨周期和衰退周期。\n不同的周期对应不同类型的投资，比如在复苏周期投资股票，在过热周期投资商品，在质量周期持有现金，在衰退周期拿着债券。\n我们现在是处在经济增长、经济增速放缓，同时通胀高起的阶段，是不是意味着当前很多的资产都没有机会了？答案肯定是否定的。\n美林时钟在美国的时钟检验效果是不错的，但是如果拿到中国来用，它本身就存在一定的问题。因为在2012年之后，中国的宏观经济层面的周期性已经消失了，GDP增速在2012年后一直在下台阶。如果看通胀周期，在2012年后，我们的CPI也失去了周期波动性。\n所以从这个维度看，美林时钟的指引效果逐渐变弱。\n我们的研究团队、外部券商投研等机构，都在用另一套理论基础——货币加信用模型。它不再从经济增长和通胀这两个维度去做经济周期的切分，而是从货币和信用的宽紧这两个维度去切分。\n当前，我们处在稳货币、紧信用的周期。这一周期对应的美林时钟的周期类似于滞涨的周期。\n目前中国央行的节奏跟美联储是不太一致的。在过去的很多年间，美联储基本上都是全球央行的领头羊。而现在，中国央行领先于美联储收紧货币政策了。基本上在去年5月份之后，我们就已经开始在收货币政策了。\n●选择风格偏均衡、个股挖掘能力强的主动型管理人\n在稳货币、紧信用的周期下，股市的表现往往是不好的。这对于股票多头来说是不是没机会了？并不是。\n股票型基金在过去16年间的涨跌幅，与沪深300在过去16年间的涨跌幅是不一样的。\n在过去的16年间，沪深300上涨的年份有9年，下跌的年份是7年，呈现涨跌互现的态势。但是股票型基金在过去的16年间基本只有4年亏钱，，这4个年份又有一定的特征，比如2008年、2011年、2016年和2018年，基本上都是对应着外部风险冲击及国内央行在短期内快速收紧流动性。\n所以做投资不要过度悲观。主动型的基金管理人，是能够在市场环境中做出超额收益的。\n在市场趋势性暴涨和暴跌的行情下，主动管理型的基金没有太大优势。如果是疯牛，可能只去买指数基金更好一些。\n而当市场呈现震荡时候，主动管理的股票型的基金是可以获得明显的超额收益的。\n超额收益的来源是什么？有一些管理人可以通过择时做波段操作，有些管理人能够选对市场主要的强势风格，还有一些管理人有比较强的选股能力，可以在某行业赛道里选强势的股票。\n目前偏震荡的行情，有利于主动管理型的股票基金做出超额收益。\n近期市场的风格没有比较突出的主线，不管是大盘小盘风格还是价值成长风格，基本上都是相对平稳的态势。\n在管理人的选择上，我们建议选择有扎实的研究功底的、风格偏均衡、个股挖掘能力强的管理人。\n●债券指数现反弹，建议布局利率债、高等级信用债、偏债混合型基金\n债券市场的表现是比较不确定的，牛市、熊市、震荡市发生概率都有。但是我们认为，债券市场投资胜率很高，但是赔率不是很确定的。\n我们去看近期的一些指标，10年期国债收益率在近期是走平甚至是向下的，但是同期代表商品价格的指数在往上走，这样的背离反映了对于未来经济的偏悲观的看法。从历史数据上来看，一旦发生背离，往往最后会以商品价格和10年期国债收益率双双下行为终结。\n所以我们认为当前债券市场存在一定的配置意义，尤其是久期策略。\n对于债券策略，建议关注利率债以及高等级的信用债。\n近几个月，各个债券的指数已经出现了一些阶段性的反弹，一方面得益于利率下行所带来的利率债的上行，另一方面来自于信用债方面的票息的收入，所以各债券的指数近期已经有比较好的表现了。\n但是对于信用债这块的配置，我们仍然建议不要有过多的信用下沉，更倾向做一些高等级的信用债，因为今年市场的债务风险仍然没有解除，对于一些风险比较高的债券，大家最好敬而远之，防止出现踩雷的风险。\n对于股债混合基金，我们建议布局偏债混合型的基金，因为债券的性价比现在更高。\n●近期商品市场现调整苗头，看好中短期趋势跟踪策略\n最后再聊一聊量化策略。\n配置量化策略的意义有两个，首先，它在组合中所处的地位是很难被股票和债券代替的，加入相关性比较低的资产进入投资组合，有利于提高组合的风险收益比。\n而CTA策略或者市场中性策略，跟传统意义上的股票策略和债券策略的相关性都是比较低的。把他们加入到组合里面会有非常良性的作用。\n此外，在股票市场发生震荡的情况下，CTA管理期货品类的表现基本上都比较稳健，在组合里面也可以对冲一些尾部的下行风险。\n在中国，当前还是有比较好的做出超额收益的土壤。如果跟美国的量化做横向的比较，在美国的量化的管理人现在非常难做出超额收益，因为市场非常成熟，机构投资者很多，所以市场通过量化策略，不管是机器学习还是多因子，基本上都是比较难做出超额收益的。\n在中国，由于散户占比比较高，价格与价值的偏离度较高，所以有利于量化策略做出超额收益，中国的阿尔法的量是比较丰富的。\n展望下半年，我们认为中长期的趋势跟踪策略依然具有机会：如果商品价格的出现逆转，对于中长期就是跟踪策略来说是有利的。\n美联储近期是有转鹰派的迹象，随着美联储转鹰派以及国内有关部门对于大宗商品价格的持续打压，近期商品市场已经出现了一些调整的苗头。\n如果下半年美联储货币政策转向的步调确定，商品市场可能会迎来趋势上的反转。届时对于中长期趋势跟踪策略来说，又有非常好表现的舞台了。\n但是目前我们可能更看好中短期趋势跟踪策略，这类策略更依赖期货市场的波动率。近期期货市场的波动率都处在非常高的位置，非常有利于中短期甚至是高频的CTA策略做出超额回报。\n大家可以去参考表里的配置建议。\n夏春：人民币兑美元相对稳定\n欧洲与新兴市场有机会\n未来的回报在于盈利而非估值\n关注价值股、小盘股\n各位朋友们大家好，今天和大家分享一下我们对2021年下半年海外的宏观经济与投资策略的展望。\n首先回顾一下我们在2021年上半年的一些观点。我们认为，上半年的经济复苏、宽松货币政策非常有利于风险资产。\n今年上半年对市场形成扰动的主要是通胀，但是通胀体现在生产端较明显，对消费端的影响还不明显。\n今年上半年，各个资产内部都出现了K型的反转，K型反转也是2021年上半年投资策略重要的主题词。\n到了下半年，变化即将开始，我们要去理解变化。\n●部分国家经济复苏动能减缓\n下半年的宏观与市场走势，美国可能会在二三季度面临经济复苏动能减缓，而这一现象在中国可能第二季度就会发生。\n相反，在其他一些地方，比方说像欧洲市场、新兴市场，他们的经济复原的状况相对缓和一些，所以这些地方还保持上升的势头。\n综合来讲，全球经济活动条件可能会相对平稳，不会出现巨大的反弹，未来可能会保持平稳，甚至相对有所下行。\n另外一方面，全球的金融条件在下半年收紧的可能性是比较大的。参考历史，流动性的反转会对市场造成比较明显的冲击。\n美国的通胀在过去两个月出现了超预期的增长，美联储也开始变得谨慎，开始认真对待通胀，不会让通胀超预期运行太久。在明年初，美国会进行缩减买券动作。\n中国也在金融条件上有所收紧，M2、社会融资条件的数据都在近期从高点回落，使得下半年的市场会迎来比较大的变化，很有可能会形成一些动荡。\n从一些指标中也可以看出目前全球的宏观情况，制造业所代表的指数已经从高点回落。除了制造业指数以外，全球市场的收益也开始逐步回落。\n欧洲、新兴市场的疫苗接种还是和美国、英国有一定差距，体现在具体生产上就是制造业生产落后。\n到了下半年，美国、英国可能会完成疫苗接种计划，经济会形成一定的转型。比方说上半年制造业非常好，到了下半年可能服务业会崛起，制造业上半年的强需求在下半年有所减缓。\n但欧洲和新兴市场还存在持续的疫苗接种过程，以及经济的复苏的过程。\n总体上来讲，全球经济增速基本上会在2021年下半年或2022年初从高点往下回落，在新兴市场和发达国家之间的经济增速差会逐渐缩短，即新兴市场会追上发达国家。\n●通胀是暂时的，货币流通速度保持低水平\n另外一方面，影响市场特别大的因素就是通胀。\n在2011年的时候，当时美国的CPI快速上行，但是这个上行过程也只是暂时的，下半年开始逐步走低。\n过去推动通胀上涨的重要力量就是货币供给，美国M2货币的供应同比增速已经从高点开始逐步回落。\n未来经济正常化后，我们认为货币流通速度还会保持在相对低的水平。货币的分配是少数人掌握了大量的货币，大量的货币被储蓄起来，进入到实体经济的相对较少，更多去到了资本市场。\n主要的不确定性因素是，病毒的变种可能会带来新的生产供应的冲击。不过一旦通胀出现超预期的增长，美联储还是会果断采取行动。因此我觉得市场目前还不需担心。\n●靠估值赚钱已经“过气”，盈利将决定未来的回报\n从不同的国家和地区来看，去年的回报主要是来自于估值变化，去年的盈利基本上都是负的，但是基于前瞻性的判断，很多地区在2020年还是取得了很好的回报。\n但是今年上半年，回报虽然还是基本上是正的，但主要是依靠盈利变化拉动。估值的变化在2021年基本上是处在收缩的阶段，在下半年依然有可能持续，除非估值调整使得公司估值明显的低于原来的情况。\n绝大部分估值在去年就形成了很大的扩张。接下来，盈利将决定不同国家的上市公司未来回报的表现。\n●关注新兴市场的发展\n在关注盈利的过程中，我们发现市场对新兴市场、欧洲、亚太会相对更乐观，所以我们一定要捕捉到盈利带来的未来的增长的机会。\n过去一段时间，美国表现得一枝独秀，但是未来，美国的上市公司要想再度创造更多的超预期结果，将变得比较困难。\n而在新兴市场和欧洲，目前单从盈利的角度来讲，他们表现更好的可能性会相对大一些，盈利同比的变化的差距相对更大。\n在经济复苏过程中，传统的周期板块和成长板块会有相对不同的表现。在过去低经济增长、低利率环境下，成长的板块表现比较好，价值周期板块相对比较落后；但是在经济复苏过程中，通胀慢慢升温，周期板块会相对于成长板块有更好的表现。\n相对于欧洲和新兴市场，标普500的周期板块占比较少，成长板块占比相对较高。所以未来从盈利表现、周期板块、估值的角度看，我们觉得欧洲的市场的机会更多。\n●价值优于成长，小盘优于大盘\n从全球的价值成长来看，过去两次大回撤，一次是2000年科技泡沫破灭，还有一次是2008年金融危机爆发。\n从去年疫情到现在差不多过了一年多的时间，现在价值的表现明显好于成长，两年内该势头依然可以维持：价值比成长表现更好，小盘比大盘表现更好。\n理解了这一点，就很容易捕捉非常好的投资机会。去年3月份市场跌到低点，那个时候大家考虑成长价值。随着经济复苏、疫苗有效消息出来后，市场开始进入到价值板块，同时小盘的表现渐渐明显。\n历史上这两次大跌之后，小盘好于大盘，价值好于成长的状况维持了两年时间。\n现在，这种可能性依然存在。现在全球经济还没有进入到完全正常化的状况，一旦完全正常化，特别是在一定的通胀压力下，价值的表现比成长好，是有很长的历史数据支撑的。\n当然，大盘里面也有一些盈利非常稳定的公司，他们可能跑得比大盘小盘都更好。\n●美元不会快速贬值，人民币表现稳定\n在美元问题上，我们的观点是，美国虽然面临着基本面双赤字，货币政策非常宽松，但是由于它的经济发展还是较其他经济体好，所以我们认为美元不会快速贬值。\n关于人民币相对美元的汇率，在下半年我们认为会依然维持在6.3~6.7之间。\n推动美元走软有很多因素，但另外一方面美国经济好于其他的经济体，美债的收益率比其他发达经济体要相对高一些，还有美联储在下半年很可能采取缩减买债的做法，这些也都对美元形成了一定的支撑。\n人民币有一定的走强的因素，包括中国经济的表现非常好，外资对中国资产的购买，股债资金不断流入。但是总体上来讲，人民币走得很强也会带来出口的压力，双循环的政策会遇到一定的阻碍。\n人民币对美元虽有所升值，但是相对于其他的一些货币，基本上并没有非常明显的变化。\n现在央行还是在追求人民币相对一篮子货币的相对稳定性的表现，并不是在刻意的追求对美元的升值和贬值。\n在当前的环境下，我们推荐大家坚持“哑铃策略”，一方面配置盈利能力强的龙头科技股，另外一方面要配置那些受益于经济复苏的价值和周期板块。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151414863,"gmtCreate":1625102194252,"gmtModify":1703736140609,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151414863","repostId":"2148081027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148081027","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625100614,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148081027?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 08:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fryer! Two circuit breakers Dingdong Maicai soared nearly 100%! The boss's net worth exceeds Zhang Lei's","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148081027","media":"中国基金报","summary":"万万没想到，在美国上市的卖菜股迎来大逆转。在每日优鲜上市破发后，叮咚买菜大幅缩小融资额，上市当天一度破发，所幸收盘的时候微涨，但没想到30日晚间，来了一个惊天逆转，一度暴涨近100% ...","content":"<p><div>Unexpectedly, the vegetable stocks listed in the United States ushered in a big reversal. After the Daily Youxian listing broke, Dingdong Maicai greatly reduced the amount of financing, and once broke on the day of listing. Fortunately, it rose slightly at the close, but unexpectedly, on the evening of the 30th, there was a shocking reversal, which once soared by nearly 100%, during which it experienced two circuit breakers! Dingdong Maicai's share price soared. On June 30th, the day after Dingdong Maicai went public, its increase expanded to 43%, triggering the fuse to suspend trading. Subsequently, Dingdong Maicai resumed trading and continued to expand its gains, with an increase of 77.72% to US $41.8. It triggered the circuit breaker for the second time, and then continued trading. Stock price...</p><p><a href=\"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/usstock/20210701/c630603214.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"tonghuashun","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fryer! Two circuit breakers Dingdong Maicai soared nearly 100%! The boss's net worth exceeds Zhang Lei's</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFryer! Two circuit breakers Dingdong Maicai soared nearly 100%! The boss's net worth exceeds Zhang Lei's\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国基金报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Unexpectedly, the vegetable stocks listed in the United States ushered in a big reversal. After the Daily Youxian listing broke, Dingdong Maicai greatly reduced the amount of financing, and once broke on the day of listing. Fortunately, it rose slightly at the close, but unexpectedly, on the evening of the 30th, there was a shocking reversal, which once soared by nearly 100%, during which it experienced two circuit breakers! Dingdong Maicai's share price soared. On June 30th, the day after Dingdong Maicai went public, its increase expanded to 43%, triggering the fuse to suspend trading. Subsequently, Dingdong Maicai resumed trading and continued to expand its gains, with an increase of 77.72% to US $41.8. It triggered the circuit breaker for the second time, and then continued trading. Stock price...</p><p><a href=\"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/usstock/20210701/c630603214.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/usstock/20210701/c630603214.shtml\">中国基金报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"DDL":"叮咚买菜"},"source_url":"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/usstock/20210701/c630603214.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/f0343184bd9b9c963ed02b302442e2b8","article_id":"2148081027","content_text":"万万没想到，在美国上市的卖菜股迎来大逆转。\n在每日优鲜上市破发后，叮咚买菜大幅缩小融资额，上市当天一度破发，所幸收盘的时候微涨，但没想到30日晚间，来了一个惊天逆转，一度暴涨近100%，期间经历了两次熔断！\n叮咚买菜股价狂飙\n6月30日，叮咚买菜上市次日，其涨幅扩大至43%，触发熔断暂停交易。随后，叮咚买菜恢复交易继续扩大涨幅，涨幅达到77.72%，报41.8美元，二度触发熔断，随后继续交易。股价一度暴涨94%，市值一度站上100亿美元！\n截至发稿，股价大涨超70%左右。\n美东时间6月29日，叮咚买菜在纽交所上市，股票代码为DDL，定价23.5美元/股，上市首日开涨超19%，但随后涨幅迅速收窄，收盘时仅微涨0.09%，报23.52美元。由于此前“抢跑”的每日优鲜上市首日意外破发，连带外界对同样前置仓模式的叮咚买菜调低了期待值。\n根据最新的招股书，叮咚买菜首次公开发行370万股美国存托股票（ADS），以此计算，叮咚买菜此次募资约8695万美元。仅为原定计划的四分之一。\n值得一提的是，叮咚买菜原本的计划通过IPO筹资3.57亿美元，但是在上市前提交了新的监管文件，调降筹资额七成至 9440 万美元。对此，市场普遍认为这是对每日优鲜破发所作的调整。\n每日优鲜上市首日破发，暴跌25%，6月28日的交易进一步下跌，报收于每股8.84美元，比发行价下降了32%。或受次影响，叮咚买菜在6月29日上市前夕改变了募资规模，将其筹资规模大幅缩减至此前额度的四分之一。\n从财务数据来看，目前，叮咚买菜仍处于亏损状态。2019年、2020年，叮咚买菜的营收分别为38.80亿元、113.36亿元；亏损达18.73亿元和31.77亿元。两年累计亏损50.5亿元。今年第一季度，叮咚买菜营收38亿元，净亏损达13.85亿元。\n不过至于为什么突然暴涨，盘面上倒是看不出有何新消息。不过30日晚间同时也是滴滴在美国第一天上市，有分析称，是不是有投资者误把叮咚买菜（DDL）当成滴滴（DIDI）了。。。\n老板身家超高瓴张磊\n叮咚买菜的创始人兼CEO梁昌霖持股超30%，按照盘中市值计算，身家应该超过了30亿美元，已经比肩高瓴资本投资人张磊。\n或许是考虑到外界对叮咚买菜的质疑，梁昌霖在上市仪式现场表示，从上市当日开始，忘记股价，去做时间的朋友，创造长期价值，并且，梁昌霖强调，“上市不是为了圈钱”。\n叮咚买菜创始人兼CEO梁昌霖在上市活动中表示，公司从二级市场拿钱不是那么迫切，D和D+轮融了10.3亿美元，现金流充裕，二级市场要融多少钱对公司而言很灵活，“如果市场特别好，价格、价值可以挂钩的话，叮咚买菜多融一些；市场不是很好，价格低于应有的价值那就少融一些，上市目的并不是圈钱。”\n上市公司的股价表现，最终还是要回归到基本面上来。而以“烧钱”著称的生鲜电商，什么时候可以盈利仍然是个未知数。\n招股书显示，2019至2021年一季度，叮咚买菜营收分别为38.80亿元、113.36亿元和38亿元，营收持续增长。但其亏损也很惊人，2019年净亏损18.7亿；2020年净亏损31.77亿元，同比扩大69.6%；2021年一季度净亏损13.85亿元，同比扩大466.4%。按照这个亏损速度，此次IPO筹到的5.6亿元，也只够叮咚买菜“烧”一个多月。\n尽管梁昌霖声称“上市目的并不是圈钱”，但就财务数据来看，叮咚买菜账上的钱其实并不多。\n报告期内，叮咚买菜经营性现金流净额持续为负，2019年至2021年第一季度分别为-9.64亿元、-20.56亿元和-10.15亿元。此外，截至今年3月31日，叮咚买菜总负债8.98亿美元，持有现金及等价物9.73亿美元；截至2021年3月31日的12个月当中，公司自由现金流为-1.55亿美元。\n滴滴低调上市\n30日晚间，还有一件大事。\n滴滴今晚正式在纽交所挂牌上市，股票代码为 DIDI。高盛、摩根士丹利、摩根大通、华兴资本担任承销商。据悉，滴滴本次IPO的承销商名单中还有多家中资机构，包括中金、中银国际、交银国际、建银国际、招银国际、工银国际和国泰君安国际等。本次IPO中，滴滴发行价定为14美元，位于13-14美元/ ADS的发行区间上限。滴滴发行3.17亿股ADS，比原计划的2.88亿股多10%。以14美元的发行价计算，滴滴此次至少募资44亿美元，其IPO的估值超670亿美元。\n滴滴此次募资或可达到46.4亿美元，30%将用于扩大中国以外国际市场业务，30%用于提升包括共享出行、电动汽车和自动驾驶在内的技术能力，20%用于推出新产品和拓展现有产品品类以持续提升用户体验，剩余部分可能用于营运资金需求和潜在的战略投资等。\n滴滴今天的上市显得非常低调，内部并未有庆祝活动或举办上市仪式。\n在截至2021年3月31日的12个月里，滴滴全球年活跃用户为4.93亿，全球年活跃司机1500万。其中，自2020年3月31日至2021年3月31日，滴滴在中国拥有3.77亿年活跃用户和1300万年活跃司机。2021年第一季度，滴滴中国出行拥有1.56亿月活用户，中国出行业务日均交易量为2500万次。\n滴滴2018年、2019年、2020年营收分别为1353亿元、1547.86亿元、1417.36亿元；滴滴2021年第一季度营收为421.63亿元（约64.35亿美元），上年同期为204.72亿元。\n2020年，滴滴三大业务――中国出行业务、国际业务和其他业务收入分别是1336亿元、23亿元和58亿元。\n其中，中国出行业务和国际化业务的平台收入从2018年的187亿元，增长到2019年的242亿元，并进一步增长到2020年的347亿元，年均复合增长率为36%。2020年和2021年第一季度的平台收入中，93.4%来自于中国，6.6%来自于国际。\n滴滴2018年、2019年、2020年净亏损分别为149.79亿元、97.33亿元、106.08亿元（约16.19亿美元）；滴滴2021年第一季度利润为54.83亿元（约8.37亿美元），上年同期的净亏为39.72亿元。\n不过，滴滴2021年第一季度仍处于运营亏损状态，运营亏损为66.54亿元，之所以能实现盈利，主要是计入了一笔投资收入，高达123.61亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168161471,"gmtCreate":1623966368093,"gmtModify":1703824710065,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168161471","repostId":"1111690771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111690771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623935139,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111690771?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 21:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111690771","media":"杠杆游戏","summary":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息","content":"<p>Global attention, whether the United States is rate hike, and when will it be rate hike?</p><p>On June 16, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot released together showed that more than half of the FOMC members gave expectations for advance rate hike. The median forecast suggested that the Fed would rate hike 2 times before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? Let's talk about the leverage game according to the details of this interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 committee members support at least one rate hike before the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous forecast of 2.2%. With the better recovery of the economy, price and monetary policy issues naturally come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked you.</p><p>The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike before the end of 2023, compared with 7 in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>Eleven members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven members are expected to start rate hike in 2022. In March, it was 4.</p><p>The median dot plot forecast in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key is why?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.</p><p>However, it is very clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.</p><p>Here, the leverage game needs to be said more. What is the goal of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Compared with the pre-black swan level, the number of employed people in May still decreased by about 7.6 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Northeast Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The Fed expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively-at this point, returning to very low levels, probably considered qualified;</p><p>At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-the price indicator should be considered to be up to standard.</p><p>Therefore, my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, simply put, employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may accelerate, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the above changes in the number of Fed members' attitudes towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike is much faster than before.</p><p>While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will mainly fluctuate.</p><p>But because liquidity in China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.</p><p>At the same time, no matter the central banks of China and the United States, the communication with the market is relatively full and transparent, and no one will suddenly change monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will not panic as a whole, and the trend downward trend will not occur.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still a bit weak, and external demand supports high production boom. Real estate and investment should not be too cold at this time.</b></p><p>June 16 was a very interesting day. The United States announced some statements of their interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.</p><p>According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Beijing Capital Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp drop in exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.</p><p>Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.</p><p>In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started housing area has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. Real estate investment is still supported in the short term, and there is certain pressure for a long time.</p><p>At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability of fixed investment falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Social retail sales increased by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than market expectations of 12.8%, and the previous value was 17.7%.</p><p>Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports have peaked. Then, real estate suppression is suppression and cannot be made too ugly.</p><p><b>5. It is worth noting whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter.</b></p><p>Regardless of global housing prices, commodities, or the U.S. stock market, this round of surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned in the leverage game above, the Federal Reserve has signals of shrinking, and the excess reserve interest rate has increased slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of cards played by China's central bank has proved that \"I am the mainstay\"-as long as the United States does not rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns should not come.</p><p>From this perspective alone, in 2021, my country's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an extremely strict attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, economic stability still needs it.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began cutting QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022. These are basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: The stock market will basically not be affected by the United States in 2021, and the property market will be dominated by me.</b>The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.</p><p>What I mean by the latter is that the property market will crack down on speculation throughout 2021. However, the local trading ability of the property market is becoming more and more proficient, and it has always had its own way to ensure a certain price and sales volume.</p><p>Besides, the water hasn't decreased.</p>","source":"lsy1574902984297","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">杠杆游戏</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 21:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Global attention, whether the United States is rate hike, and when will it be rate hike?</p><p>On June 16, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot released together showed that more than half of the FOMC members gave expectations for advance rate hike. The median forecast suggested that the Fed would rate hike 2 times before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? Let's talk about the leverage game according to the details of this interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 committee members support at least one rate hike before the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous forecast of 2.2%. With the better recovery of the economy, price and monetary policy issues naturally come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked you.</p><p>The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike before the end of 2023, compared with 7 in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>Eleven members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven members are expected to start rate hike in 2022. In March, it was 4.</p><p>The median dot plot forecast in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key is why?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.</p><p>However, it is very clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.</p><p>Here, the leverage game needs to be said more. What is the goal of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Compared with the pre-black swan level, the number of employed people in May still decreased by about 7.6 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Northeast Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The Fed expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively-at this point, returning to very low levels, probably considered qualified;</p><p>At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-the price indicator should be considered to be up to standard.</p><p>Therefore, my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, simply put, employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may accelerate, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the above changes in the number of Fed members' attitudes towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike is much faster than before.</p><p>While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will mainly fluctuate.</p><p>But because liquidity in China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.</p><p>At the same time, no matter the central banks of China and the United States, the communication with the market is relatively full and transparent, and no one will suddenly change monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will not panic as a whole, and the trend downward trend will not occur.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still a bit weak, and external demand supports high production boom. Real estate and investment should not be too cold at this time.</b></p><p>June 16 was a very interesting day. The United States announced some statements of their interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.</p><p>According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Beijing Capital Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp drop in exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.</p><p>Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.</p><p>In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started housing area has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. Real estate investment is still supported in the short term, and there is certain pressure for a long time.</p><p>At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability of fixed investment falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Social retail sales increased by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than market expectations of 12.8%, and the previous value was 17.7%.</p><p>Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports have peaked. Then, real estate suppression is suppression and cannot be made too ugly.</p><p><b>5. It is worth noting whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter.</b></p><p>Regardless of global housing prices, commodities, or the U.S. stock market, this round of surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned in the leverage game above, the Federal Reserve has signals of shrinking, and the excess reserve interest rate has increased slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of cards played by China's central bank has proved that \"I am the mainstay\"-as long as the United States does not rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns should not come.</p><p>From this perspective alone, in 2021, my country's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an extremely strict attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, economic stability still needs it.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began cutting QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022. These are basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: The stock market will basically not be affected by the United States in 2021, and the property market will be dominated by me.</b>The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.</p><p>What I mean by the latter is that the property market will crack down on speculation throughout 2021. However, the local trading ability of the property market is becoming more and more proficient, and it has always had its own way to ensure a certain price and sales volume.</p><p>Besides, the water hasn't decreased.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw\">杠杆游戏</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111690771","content_text":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息的预期，中位数预测暗示，美联储将在2023年前加息2次。\n利率或从0.1%升至0.6%。\n\n总体来说，美联储对物价的担忧提高，鹰派信号初现。这对我国股市、楼市会有什么影响，杠杆游戏根据此次议息会议的细节，展开谈一谈。\n1、鹰派转向信号值得重视！\n18位委员中有13人支持在2023年底前，至少加息1次。美联储对美国经济比较有信心，他们认为2021年美国GDP将增长7.0%，而3月份会议的预测为6.5%。\n美联储还将2023年的实际GDP预测，从之前预期的2.2%上调至2.4%。伴随经济的较好复苏，物价和货币政策问题自然来了。\n\n华泰期货做了一个统计，杠杆游戏觉得非常有意义，并致谢。\n美联储官员的加息路径点阵图显示，到2023年底，美联储或许将加息2次。\nFOMC（美联储的公开市场委员会）6月点阵图显示，18 位委员中有13人支持在2023 年底前至少加息1次，而3月为7位。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n11位委员预计到2023年底至少加息2次，7名委员预计在2022年开始加息。3月为4位。\n而3月份的点阵图中位数预测值暗示，到2023年底前不会加息。\n2、美联储主席鲍威尔总体认为，现在讨论加息还为时过早，关键是为什么？\n当然，美联储准备将超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.1%，调整至0.15%，也就是说，面对流动性过剩，美联储其实也在适当出手。\n不过说得很清楚，将继续每月增持至少800亿美元的国债，以及至少400亿美元的住房抵押贷款支持证券，直到充分就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进展。\n这里杠杆游戏要多一句嘴，什么算充分就业和物价稳定目标？\n比如美国4月、5月新增非农就业人口分别为27.8万和55.9万，均低于预期。与黑天鹅前水平相比，5月就业人数依然减少了约760万。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n美联储预计2021年失业率将降至4.5%（与3月的预测持平），2022年和2023年失业率将分别降至3.8%和3.5%——到此，回到非常低的水平，大概算是合格；\n同时鲍威尔认为通货膨胀可能在未来几个月继续居高不下，然后才会有所缓和——物价指标应该算达标。\n所以，我的结论就是，美国人在乎的是经济，简单说就是就业指标。\n3、美国货币政策正常化可能加快，值得重视，但股市应该暂时无忧。\n从上文美联储委员对加息的态度人数变化看，杠杆游戏基本可以认为，加息节奏较此前大大加快。\n虽然目前还没有加息的信号，但提前到来是可能的。同时，鲍威尔已经准备讨论缩减购债，鹰派显露无疑，那么美元短期内有支撑，人民币汇率震荡为主。\n但因为中美流动性总体宽松。如我们的M2，5月末227.54万亿元，同比增长8.3%，增速比上月末高0.2个百分点。\n同时无论中美央行，与市场的沟通都较为充分、透明，谁都不会货币政策突然转向。\n所以股市总体不会恐慌，趋势性下跌不会出现。\n4、内需还是有点弱，外需支撑生产高景气，房地产和投资这个时候不能太凉。\n6月16日是很有意思的一天，美国通报他们的议息会议部分声明，我们发布了多项经济指标。\n我们可以看，工业生产其实略走弱，外需仍是重要支撑。\n首创证券统计发现，比如5月规上工业增加值两年平均增速为6.6%，较前值略降0.2个百分点。\n\n图表来源|首创证券（特此感谢）\n出口交货值复合增速有较大回落，与5月出口大幅回落相呼应，但如果没有出口的高增长，工业数据会下滑更多。\n总体来说，外需见顶回落，生产和出口下一步略有影响是一定的。\n而固投方面，同比增长15.4%。但房屋新开工面积连续两个月负增长，竣工面积本月大幅提速，同比转正为5.0%，短期内房地产投资仍有支撑，长期存在一定的压力。\n同时债务管理的加强，固定投资的回落大概率。\n\n5月社零销售增长12.4%，小幅低于市场预期的12.8%，前值为17.7%。\n总的来说，杠杆游戏认为，内需马马虎虎，出口见顶，那么，房地产打压归打压，不能搞得太难看。\n5、三季度美国是否有流动性拐点，值得注意。\n无论全球房价，还是大宗商品，以及美国股市，资产价格大涨本质这一轮都是流动性主导的。\n现在问题来了，三季度美国流动性是否有拐点？上文杠杆游戏写了，美联储有缩量的信号，超额准备金利率略有提高。\n\n图表来源|浙商证券（特此感谢）\n3季度杠杆游戏认为，第一幅度小，第二是个试探，同时我国央行上一轮的出牌已经证明，“以我为主”——只要美国不加息，资金回美追求高收益的世界趋势，应该不会到来。\n单这个角度说，2021年，我国股市不至于看空；楼市，只是对投机表现出异常严厉的态度，如上所述，经济的稳定还需要它。\n需要注意的是，3季度，比如7、8月，美联储始正式讨论削减QE，2021年底或2022年初开始削减QE，这些基本已在市场预期内。\n尽管如此，这对任何国家的货币政策，起码都是掣肘。\n6、结论：2021年股市基本不会受美国影响，楼市以我为主。前者杠杆游戏的意思是，不要担心流动性。\n后者我的意思是，楼市打击投机，将贯穿2021年始终。但地方对楼市的操盘能力，也是越来越纯熟，保障一定的价格和销量，从来都有自己办法。\n何况，水又没减少。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168163030,"gmtCreate":1623966252920,"gmtModify":1703824707584,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168163030","repostId":"1129014312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129014312","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623938489,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129014312?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 22:01","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Chinese concept education stocks continued to fall, TAL fell nearly 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129014312","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月17日，中概教育股持续走低，好未来跌近9%，高途跌超7%、新东方跌超4%。\n\n继6月15日教育部宣布成立校外教育培训监管司之后，国务院教育督导委员会办公室昨天发布校外培训风险提示——\n一、警惕虚假","content":"<p>On June 17, Chinese concept education stocks continued to fall.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Fell nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Fell more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ee918473ddb65b54c850140dccdc2f\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the Ministry of Education announced the establishment of the off-campus education and training supervision department on June 15th, the Office of the Education Steering Committee of the State Council issued a risk warning of off-campus training yesterday-</p><p>First, be wary of false propaganda to induce payment. In order to attract students, some training institutions sell courses at prices significantly lower than the cost, mislead students to sign up with inappropriate terms, and even make up the original price of courses that have never been sold, and then make false propaganda at underlined prices and discounted prices to attract parents to pay training fees.</p><p>Second, be wary of illegal charges under various pretexts. Before paying the fees, parents should know in detail all the fees announced by the training institutions to the public, and carefully identify and operate carefully the fees that exceed the scope of publicity and exceed 3 months or 60 class hours at one time.</p><p>Third, be wary of concocting gimmicks and high charges. Some training institutions take advantage of the eagerness of parents and children before the exam, organize so-called \"confidential training\" and \"internal training\" under the guise of gimmicks of proposition research centers, proposition experts and even proposition people, and charge high fees.</p><p>At this time, the semester exam is approaching and the summer vacation is approaching. It was originally the peak season for off-campus training institutions to promote and enroll students. The Office of the Education Steering Committee of the State Council specially \"came forward\" to remind parents to \"keep their eyes open and avoid being deceived\", which naturally further clarified the regulatory attitude of relevant government departments towards the off-campus training and counseling market.</p><p>As a matter of fact, since this year's National \"two sessions\" launched verbal criticism of off-campus training institutions, the supervision and rectification of off-campus training by relevant government departments has become more and more intensive. Especially in May, before and after the 19th meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform reviewed and approved the Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden of Students' Homework and Off-campus Training in Compulsory Education, the State Administrations for Market Supervision at all levels imposed maximum penalties on a number of training institutions for illegal acts such as false propaganda and price fraud. For a while, the off-campus training market was jittery.</p><p>Recently, the establishment of the off-campus education and training supervision department indicates that the specific supervision measures of the education department will be fully implemented, and the capital market panic caused by this is also reasonable. However, in this round of panic, overseas media reports are more lethal.</p><p>Yesterday, foreign media reported that China was preparing to crack down harder than expected on the $120 billion extracurricular tutoring industry, including a trial ban on holiday tutoring and restricting advertising. Among them, new rules, which could be published as early as next week and come into effect next month, are aimed at easing pressure on schoolchildren and boosting the country's birth rate by reducing the cost of living for families.</p><p>Overseas media quoted sources as saying that Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities tried to ban online and offline tutoring during summer and winter vacations. The trial holiday ban also adds to plans to ban online and offline tutoring on weekends during the term, which could reduce the annual revenue of off-campus tutoring businesses by as much as 70 to 80%.</p><p>In fact, the above rumors have long been circulating in the market, and even triggered some executives of education companies listed on the US stock market to sell their stocks. However, the education authorities are secretive about such rumors, neither clarifying nor replying. With the establishment of the off-campus education and training supervision department, rumors are about to be uncovered.</p><p>In fact, the capital market has closed its hands on the future expectations of Chinese concept education stocks in the US stock market: June 11,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The announcement stated that New Oriental's rating was downgraded to sell; On June 7, Credit Suisse downgraded New Oriental's rating from outperform to neutral, and lowered its target price from $14 to $9.3.</p><p>As for the trend of China's off-campus training industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>According to the report, it is expected that new policies on the off-campus education and training industry will be introduced in the future, and the development of the industry will usher in changes. It is believed that false propaganda, excessive propaganda and other industry chaos in the industry can be effectively eradicated in the long run, and relevant enterprises will be guided to the correct development direction. Therefore, in the long run, it will be beneficial to the business development of leading enterprises, but in the short run, it will impose certain constraints on the business expansion of enterprises.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese concept education stocks continued to fall, TAL fell nearly 9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese concept education stocks continued to fall, TAL fell nearly 9%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 22:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 17, Chinese concept education stocks continued to fall.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Fell nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Fell more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ee918473ddb65b54c850140dccdc2f\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the Ministry of Education announced the establishment of the off-campus education and training supervision department on June 15th, the Office of the Education Steering Committee of the State Council issued a risk warning of off-campus training yesterday-</p><p>First, be wary of false propaganda to induce payment. In order to attract students, some training institutions sell courses at prices significantly lower than the cost, mislead students to sign up with inappropriate terms, and even make up the original price of courses that have never been sold, and then make false propaganda at underlined prices and discounted prices to attract parents to pay training fees.</p><p>Second, be wary of illegal charges under various pretexts. Before paying the fees, parents should know in detail all the fees announced by the training institutions to the public, and carefully identify and operate carefully the fees that exceed the scope of publicity and exceed 3 months or 60 class hours at one time.</p><p>Third, be wary of concocting gimmicks and high charges. Some training institutions take advantage of the eagerness of parents and children before the exam, organize so-called \"confidential training\" and \"internal training\" under the guise of gimmicks of proposition research centers, proposition experts and even proposition people, and charge high fees.</p><p>At this time, the semester exam is approaching and the summer vacation is approaching. It was originally the peak season for off-campus training institutions to promote and enroll students. The Office of the Education Steering Committee of the State Council specially \"came forward\" to remind parents to \"keep their eyes open and avoid being deceived\", which naturally further clarified the regulatory attitude of relevant government departments towards the off-campus training and counseling market.</p><p>As a matter of fact, since this year's National \"two sessions\" launched verbal criticism of off-campus training institutions, the supervision and rectification of off-campus training by relevant government departments has become more and more intensive. Especially in May, before and after the 19th meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform reviewed and approved the Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden of Students' Homework and Off-campus Training in Compulsory Education, the State Administrations for Market Supervision at all levels imposed maximum penalties on a number of training institutions for illegal acts such as false propaganda and price fraud. For a while, the off-campus training market was jittery.</p><p>Recently, the establishment of the off-campus education and training supervision department indicates that the specific supervision measures of the education department will be fully implemented, and the capital market panic caused by this is also reasonable. However, in this round of panic, overseas media reports are more lethal.</p><p>Yesterday, foreign media reported that China was preparing to crack down harder than expected on the $120 billion extracurricular tutoring industry, including a trial ban on holiday tutoring and restricting advertising. Among them, new rules, which could be published as early as next week and come into effect next month, are aimed at easing pressure on schoolchildren and boosting the country's birth rate by reducing the cost of living for families.</p><p>Overseas media quoted sources as saying that Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities tried to ban online and offline tutoring during summer and winter vacations. The trial holiday ban also adds to plans to ban online and offline tutoring on weekends during the term, which could reduce the annual revenue of off-campus tutoring businesses by as much as 70 to 80%.</p><p>In fact, the above rumors have long been circulating in the market, and even triggered some executives of education companies listed on the US stock market to sell their stocks. However, the education authorities are secretive about such rumors, neither clarifying nor replying. With the establishment of the off-campus education and training supervision department, rumors are about to be uncovered.</p><p>In fact, the capital market has closed its hands on the future expectations of Chinese concept education stocks in the US stock market: June 11,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The announcement stated that New Oriental's rating was downgraded to sell; On June 7, Credit Suisse downgraded New Oriental's rating from outperform to neutral, and lowered its target price from $14 to $9.3.</p><p>As for the trend of China's off-campus training industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>According to the report, it is expected that new policies on the off-campus education and training industry will be introduced in the future, and the development of the industry will usher in changes. It is believed that false propaganda, excessive propaganda and other industry chaos in the industry can be effectively eradicated in the long run, and relevant enterprises will be guided to the correct development direction. Therefore, in the long run, it will be beneficial to the business development of leading enterprises, but in the short run, it will impose certain constraints on the business expansion of enterprises.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/428db54350354f66d13560331e078b53","relate_stocks":{"GOTU":"高途","EDU":"新东方","TAL":"好未来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129014312","content_text":"6月17日，中概教育股持续走低，好未来跌近9%，高途跌超7%、新东方跌超4%。\n\n继6月15日教育部宣布成立校外教育培训监管司之后，国务院教育督导委员会办公室昨天发布校外培训风险提示——\n一、警惕虚假宣传诱导缴费。部分培训机构为招揽生源，以明显低于成本的价格售卖课程、以不当用语误导学生报名，甚至虚构从未成交的课程原价，然后以划线价、折扣价进行虚假宣传，吸引家长缴纳培训费用。\n二、警惕巧立名目违规收费。在缴纳费用前，家长要详细了解培训机构向社会公示的所有收费项目，对超出公示范围、一次性超过3个月或60课时的收费，需仔细辨别，谨慎操作。\n三、警惕炮制噱头高额收费。部分培训机构利用家长和孩子考前的急切心理，假借命题研究中心、命题专家甚至命题人的噱头，组织所谓的“保密培训”“内部培训”等，收取高额费用。\n此时，正值学期考试临近、暑假将至，原本是校外培训机构促销、招生的旺季。国务院教育督导委员会办公室特别“出面”提醒广大家长“擦亮眼睛，避免上当受骗”，自然进一步明确了政府相关部门对于校外培训辅导市场的监管态度。\n事实上，自今年全国“两会”掀起对校外培训机构的口诛笔伐以来，政府有关部门对于校外培训的监管与整顿愈发密集。特别是5月，中央全面深化改革委员会第十九次会议审议通过了《关于进一步减轻义务教育阶段学生作业负担和校外培训负担的意见》前后，各级市场监管总局以涉及虚假宣传、价格欺诈等违法行为，对一批培训机构的进行了顶格处罚。一时之间，校外培训市场可谓风声鹤唳。\n近日，校外教育培训监管司的成立，表明教育部门具体的监管措施将全面落实，由此引发的资本市场恐慌也在情理之中。但是，在这一轮恐慌中，境外媒体的报道则更具杀伤力。\n昨天，有境外媒体报道称，中国准备对1200亿美元的课外辅导行业进行比预期更为严厉的打击，包括试行禁止假期补习和限制广告。其中，新规定最早可能在下周公布，并于下个月生效，旨在缓解学童的压力并通过降低家庭生活成本来提高国家的出生率。\n境外媒体援引消息人士说法，北京、上海和其他主要城市在暑假和寒假期间试行禁止线上和线下辅导。试行假期禁令还增加了在学期期间禁止在周末进行线上和线下辅导的计划，这可能会使校外辅导企业的年收入减少多达70至80%。\n其实，上述传言在坊间早已流传，甚至引发了一些美股上市教育企业高管抛售持有的股票。但是，教育主管部门对于此类传言都是讳莫如深，既未予澄清，也不予答复。随着校外教育培训监管司的成立，传言也即将揭开盖子。\n事实上，对于美股中概教育股的未来预期，资本市场已经收手：6月11日，花旗公告称，将新东方评级下调至卖出；6月7日，瑞信下调新东方的评级，从跑赢大盘下调至中性，目标价从14美元下调至9.3美元。\n至于中国校外培训行业的走势，国泰君安发表报告认为，预计未来会出台关于校外教培行业的新政策，行业的发展将迎来改变。相信行业内虚假宣传、过度宣传等行业乱象长远能被有效根除，相关的企业将被引导走向正确的发展方向。因此，从长远来看会有利于头部企业的业务发展，但在短期内会对企业的业务拓展造成一定的约束。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOTU":0.9,"TAL":0.9,"EDU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112309903,"gmtCreate":1622849775602,"gmtModify":1704192258898,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112309903","repostId":"1149890763","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149890763","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622813612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149890763?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 21:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening: U.S. stocks opened higher across the board, the concept of retail investors rebounded, and auto stocks collectively rose","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149890763","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月4日（周五），美股全线高开。道琼斯指数开盘上涨104.39点，涨幅0.30%，报34681.43点；标普500指数开盘上涨19.41点，涨幅0.46%，报4212.26点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨","content":"<p>On June 4 (Friday), U.S. stocks opened higher across the board. The Dow Jones index opened up 104.39 points, or 0.30%, to 34,681.43 points; The S&P 500 index opened up 19.41 points, or 0.46%, to 4212.26 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 83.22 points, or 0.61%, to 13697.73 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2f90afbeaff431b4424d407fb52bac\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">The ninth city</a>With a surge of more than 20%, the company announced the acquisition and investment in Canadian digital currency mines Montcrypto and Skychain.</p><p>The auto sector rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Continued to rise 2%. Ford said on Thursday that total sales in May increased by 4.1% year-on-year, retail sales fell by 11.2%, and electric vehicle sales in May surged 184% year-on-year. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>Up 1.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCC.U\">Churchill Capital</a>IV rose 3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up 1.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 1.8%.</p><p>The semiconductor sector generally rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Up 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">Xilinx</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Up 1.4%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">DocuSign</a>Up more than 8%, the company's second-quarter revenue forecast is better than market consensus.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">United States Steel</a>Up 3%, previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Raised its price target to $30.</p><p>Pershing Square's SPAC Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a>Falling more than 11%, it announced today that it will acquire a 10% stake in Universal Music to achieve listing.</p><p>The volatile retail concept stocks rebounded slightly at the beginning of the market. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Up 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Up 2.5%.</p><p>New hot stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKHS\">Workhorse</a>It fell more than 5% and closed up more than 28% yesterday.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening: U.S. stocks opened higher across the board, the concept of retail investors rebounded, and auto stocks collectively rose</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening: U.S. stocks opened higher across the board, the concept of retail investors rebounded, and auto stocks collectively rose\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-04 21:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 4 (Friday), U.S. stocks opened higher across the board. The Dow Jones index opened up 104.39 points, or 0.30%, to 34,681.43 points; The S&P 500 index opened up 19.41 points, or 0.46%, to 4212.26 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 83.22 points, or 0.61%, to 13697.73 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2f90afbeaff431b4424d407fb52bac\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">The ninth city</a>With a surge of more than 20%, the company announced the acquisition and investment in Canadian digital currency mines Montcrypto and Skychain.</p><p>The auto sector rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Continued to rise 2%. Ford said on Thursday that total sales in May increased by 4.1% year-on-year, retail sales fell by 11.2%, and electric vehicle sales in May surged 184% year-on-year. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>Up 1.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCC.U\">Churchill Capital</a>IV rose 3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up 1.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 1.8%.</p><p>The semiconductor sector generally rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Up 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">Xilinx</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Up 1.4%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">DocuSign</a>Up more than 8%, the company's second-quarter revenue forecast is better than market consensus.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">United States Steel</a>Up 3%, previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Raised its price target to $30.</p><p>Pershing Square's SPAC Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a>Falling more than 11%, it announced today that it will acquire a 10% stake in Universal Music to achieve listing.</p><p>The volatile retail concept stocks rebounded slightly at the beginning of the market. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Up 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Up 2.5%.</p><p>New hot stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKHS\">Workhorse</a>It fell more than 5% and closed up more than 28% yesterday.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149890763","content_text":"6月4日（周五），美股全线高开。道琼斯指数开盘上涨104.39点，涨幅0.30%，报34681.43点；标普500指数开盘上涨19.41点，涨幅0.46%，报4212.26点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨83.22点，涨幅0.61%，报13697.73点。第九城市大涨超20%，公司宣布收购及投资加拿大数字货币矿场Montcrypto及Skychain。汽车板块走高，福特汽车续涨2%。福特汽车周四表示，5月总销量同比增长4.1%，零售销量下降11.2%，5月电动车销量同比大增184%。同时，特斯拉涨2%，丰田汽车涨1.15%，Churchill Capital IV涨3.6%，小鹏汽车涨1.2%，蔚来汽车涨1.8%。半导体板块普涨，美光科技、英伟达涨2%，赛灵思、高通涨1.4%。DocuSign涨超8%，公司第二季度营收预期好于市场共识。美国钢铁涨3%，此前瑞银将其目标价上调至30美元。潘兴广场旗下SPAC公司Pershing Square Tontine Holdings跌超11%，今日宣布将收购环球音乐10%股权实现上市。波动剧烈的散户概念股开盘之初稍稍回弹，截至发稿，AMC院线涨超4%，游戏驿站涨2%，3B家居涨2.5%。新晋热门股Workhorse跌超5%，昨日收涨超28%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112974240,"gmtCreate":1622849657880,"gmtModify":1704192255319,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112974240","repostId":"1146370478","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146370478","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622821732,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146370478?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 23:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AMC Theaters rose more than 5%, Bank of America conceded defeat to retail investors' group stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146370478","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周五，部分热门散户抱团股反弹。截至发稿，AMC院线涨超5%，3B家居涨近1%，游戏驿站转涨。市场消息称，美国银行向散户抱团股认输，已经决定不再试图弄懂其中一些股票，终止覆盖游戏驿站评级，且将对Bed ","content":"<p>On Friday, some popular retail investors' group stocks rebounded. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Rose nearly 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Turned up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6841497c597c7b54d4f4129311870d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to market sources,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Admitting defeat to retail investors' group stocks, has decided not to try to understand some of these stocks, terminated the coverage of GameStop rating, and changed the rating of Bed Bath & Beyond to no rating. Previously, the bank rated GameStop as weaker than the broader market and BBBY as a buy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Theaters rose more than 5%, Bank of America conceded defeat to retail investors' group stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Theaters rose more than 5%, Bank of America conceded defeat to retail investors' group stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-04 23:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Friday, some popular retail investors' group stocks rebounded. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Rose nearly 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Turned up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6841497c597c7b54d4f4129311870d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to market sources,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Admitting defeat to retail investors' group stocks, has decided not to try to understand some of these stocks, terminated the coverage of GameStop rating, and changed the rating of Bed Bath & Beyond to no rating. Previously, the bank rated GameStop as weaker than the broader market and BBBY as a buy.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/765eea7b8efcd21c54c30bb5f35bff0d","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146370478","content_text":"周五，部分热门散户抱团股反弹。截至发稿，AMC院线涨超5%，3B家居涨近1%，游戏驿站转涨。市场消息称，美国银行向散户抱团股认输，已经决定不再试图弄懂其中一些股票，终止覆盖游戏驿站评级，且将对Bed Bath & Beyond评级改为无评级。此前该行对游戏驿站评级为弱于大盘，对BBBY评级为买入。 ","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137107788,"gmtCreate":1622322315244,"gmtModify":1704182916420,"author":{"id":"3567486329036828","authorId":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","idStr":"3567486329036828"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137107788","repostId":"1166516864","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}