+Follow
seraph2020
No personal profile
38
Follow
108
Followers
0
Topic
0
Badge
Posts
Hot
seraph2020
2022-04-29
Good
Understand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?
seraph2020
2022-04-20
Good
Sorry, the original content has been removed
seraph2020
2022-04-14
Good
Night Reading | Buffett's 40 sentences are highly recommended by Duan Yongping
seraph2020
2022-03-22
Good
Night Reading | Munger: Do these things well, and the road to wealth and freedom is simple
seraph2020
2021-08-31
Good
@侃见财经:市值突破2.5萬億美元,回購近4500億美元,iPhone13你會買嗎?
seraph2020
2021-08-02
Nice
From the Clinton Era: The Origin, Madness and Bursting of the Internet Bubble
seraph2020
2021-02-03
……
@小虎AV:昨夜ARK ETF的創始人凱西·伍德接受雅虎財經節目採訪討論了她對Reddit、GameStop、潛在的債券泡沫和賣空者的看法。本期視頻精彩要點如下: Cathie Wood認爲千禧一代(90-00後)比嬰兒潮一代(80後)對股票更感興趣,這也是促成Reddit上形成 WSB效應的一些因素, 她一直都在關注WSB事件,在她看來WSB抱團做多現象是積極的,對股票市場和加密貨幣市場都有積極影響。 她認爲對衝基金在其中並不完全無辜,一個有趣的事情是對衝基金實際上是在協助和教唆這一現象。 WSB導致一些經營困難的公司債券價格提升,AMC是其中典型債券價格已經翻了三倍。 以ARK投資特斯拉爲例,此前埃隆·馬斯克曾嘗試將特斯拉私有化,導致股價大跌,2019年的時候特斯拉股價大跌,市場上看空的聲音很多,但是ARK堅定買入並長期看多特斯拉。後來2020年特斯拉股價大漲,ARK獲利頗豐,到今天,特斯拉依然是ARK最典型的一項投資。 她認爲這輪做空,除對衝基金以外,也有散戶投資者參與其中。現在WSB股票的波動已經到了一種離譜的情況,她會繼續關注下去看是什麼樣的收場。 WSB的最大受益方是銀行,而最終的參與者可能會損失慘重。 關於債券泡沫也值得大家關注,具體貌似沒有深入聊[吃瓜]後面是主持人聊天,沒啥意思,我就不翻了,大家看視頻吧,我繼續幹飯了[真香] 事先聲明:如果翻譯有錯,都是字幕軟件的鍋[正經]爲了提高準確率,這期我都是照着字幕軟件提取的英文翻譯成中字的[流淚]關於ARK Invest介紹:ARK 可以說是特斯拉最著名的多頭支持者之一,並且一直維持對特斯拉的最樂觀長期目標價。ARK Invest 也是極少數能考慮到特斯拉在自動駕駛、全自動駕駛套件,及埃隆·馬斯克 (Elon Musk) 計劃推出的共享出行服務 (Robotaxi net
seraph2020
2021-01-29
?
@三思期权:空頭節節敗退,散戶即將迎來終局之戰
seraph2020
2021-01-10
?
@Alan聊特斯拉: Vincent 採訪濃縮版,上調目標價810,新高還能買?
seraph2020
2021-01-08
Nice
@走马财经:馬斯克:我的房子賣給了中國人 未來想葬在火星(上)
Go to Tiger App to see more news
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3567665939928011","uuid":"3567665939928011","gmtCreate":1604571916921,"gmtModify":1620018524140,"name":"seraph2020","pinyin":"seraph2020","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":108,"headSize":38,"tweetSize":90,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":16,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.12.15","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.79%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.70%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.02%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":93,"starInvestorFlag":true,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":1,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":18.26,"winRationPercentage":60.465116,"showRor":true,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9069072230,"gmtCreate":1651211029360,"gmtModify":1676534871630,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567665939928011","authorIdStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069072230","repostId":"1116937204","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116937204","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651126440,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116937204?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-28 14:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Understand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116937204","media":"追寻价值之路","summary":"不论是从理论上来看,还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看,股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下,股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。核心结论股票回购最早起","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support stock prices to a certain extent or even push stock prices up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies.<b>Core conclusions</b></p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest. After years of development, it has become a common means in the capital market. Especially in the last ten years, the scale of repurchase by listed companies in the United States has soared sharply.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the U.S. stock market, this article discusses and sorts out issues related to stock repurchases. The main contents are divided into five parts:</p><p>The first part introduces the basic concept of stock repurchase, including four common ways of repurchase and the motivation of stock repurchase; The second part discusses the related financial treatment of stock repurchase, involving whether to choose the financial treatment of canceling shares after repurchase and why some enterprises have negative net assets after repurchase; The third part sorts out the logic that stock repurchases are conducive to stock price rises. One is to directly increase the demand for company stocks, and the other is to improve financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies. In addition, judging from the performance of U.S. stocks, stock repurchases It is an important part of stock price yields, and the impact of repurchases on price-to-book ratios is more significant than P/E; The fourth part discusses the potential risks of stock repurchase, mainly including the decline of market liquidity and the high financial leverage risk of listed companies caused by repurchase; The fifth part is an introduction to the current repurchase situation of A shares and the experience of US stock repurchase on A shares. Risk warning: Repurchases increase financial leverage risks, historical experience does not represent the future, the macro economy is less than expected, and overseas markets fluctuate significantly</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. Introduction to the basic concepts of stock repurchase</b></p><p><b>1.1 What is a share repurchase?</b></p><p>Stock repurchase refers to the behavior of listed companies using cash and other means to repurchase a certain amount of outstanding stocks of the company from the stock market, which will reduce the number of outstanding stocks of the company, thereby achieving market value management, equity incentives, and stabilizing stock prices. and other positive effects.</p><p>There are two main sources of funds for enterprises to repurchase stocks: one is internal funds, including net profits obtained from daily operations of enterprises or cash sources such as government tax cuts and tax rebates, as well as self-owned funds such as the original retained earnings of enterprises; The second is external funds, which borrow money and add leverage through bond issuance and other means to achieve share repurchase.</p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest, especially after the 1980s. Previously, because western European and American countries advocated the theory of maintaining corporate capital, and the repurchase behavior itself was suspected of market manipulation, few companies conducted stock repurchases. It was not until the 1980s that stock repurchases began to gradually develop. After more than 40 years of development, stock repurchase has become a common means in developed capital markets. It is widely used to optimize the capital structure, enhance the company's value, or send positive signals when the company's stock price is undervalued.</p><p><b>1.2 Four common ways of stock repurchase</b></p><p>According to the different methods of determining the repurchase price, stock repurchase can generally be divided into four basic methods: open market operation, cash offer repurchase, agreement repurchase and transferable sale right repurchase.</p><p>Open market repurchase is a popular stock repurchase method in the current US market. Listed companies that repurchase shares through the open market will directly repurchase shares in the open market at the current market price. Stock repurchases under this method are more flexible. Listed companies can freely decide factors such as the time and quantity of repurchases according to their own circumstances. Moreover, stock repurchases under this method do not need to pay additional premiums.</p><p>Another more common method of stock repurchase is offer repurchase. There are generally two pricing methods for listed companies to repurchase stocks through tender offers. One is to use a fixed price to issue an offer to shareholders within an agreed period to purchase a certain number of stocks. Listed companies generally choose this pricing method when they need a large number of company stocks in a short period of time. However, a sharp increase in demand in the short term will lead to paying a certain premium for repurchasing stocks. Another pricing method under tender offer repurchase is Dutch auction repurchase, which will give the company greater flexibility in the repurchase price, so it is also widely used. In Dutch auction repurchase, the listed company sets the range of repurchase price and the quantity planned to repurchase, and then shareholders express the number of shares they are willing to sell at a certain level within the price range. Finally, the listed company will summarize the wishes of all shareholders and repurchase shares according to the low to high price order until the established repurchase quantity of the listed company is reached.</p><p>Agreement buybacks are less transparent compared to open market buybacks and offer buybacks. Because under the agreement repurchase method, listed companies directly enter into private agreements with some shareholders to repurchase shares according to the price and quantity agreed in the agreement. This method is relatively free in terms of pricing, transaction time and payment method, and usually the negotiated price is lower than the market price.</p><p>Transferable right of sale repurchase is a special way of stock repurchase. The company that implements stock repurchase gives shareholders the right to sell their stocks to the company at a specific price within a certain period of time. Once this right is formed, it can be separated and traded with the attached stocks. Listed companies issue transferable authorizations to their shareholders, and shareholders who are unwilling to sell their shares can sell this right separately to meet the different demands of various shareholders.</p><p><b>1.3 Why Stock Repurchase?</b></p><p>The benefits of share repurchases are multifaceted. From the perspective of the company as a whole, whether it is internal or external funds to repurchase shares, it can improve the capital structure of the enterprise and reduce the cost of supervision and restraint on the company's management. The way of issuing bonds to repurchase shares can also make use of the tax shield effect of debts to achieve reasonable tax avoidance, and urge the management to focus on the debt repayment and long-term sustainable operation of the enterprise. For those shareholders who sell their stocks in the stock repurchase plan, they can sell their stocks to obtain liquidity. In addition, compared with the direct distribution of cash Dividend, since capital gains are generally not taxed or the tax rate is lower, effective tax avoidance can be achieved by distributing dividends through stock repurchase. Shareholders who still hold shares after the company implements the repurchase plan can also benefit. As the net capital of the enterprise will be significantly reduced after the completion of the stock repurchase, under the condition that other conditions remain unchanged, the financial indicators such as the return on net assets, earnings per share, and net assets per share of the enterprise will all be significantly improved. If we classify the motivations of listed companies' stock repurchases, we can also classify them into the following four categories: one is financial motivation, the other is signal transmission appeal, the third is to reduce principal-agent risks, and the fourth is to increase company control to prevent hostile takeovers.</p><p><b>The financial motivation of listed companies to buy back shares is mainly related to their capital structure and dividend policy. Listed companies often buy back shares for financial reasons such as increasing earnings per share, improving capital structure and increasing shareholder wealth effect.</b>Specifically, the improvement of stock repurchase on the financial-related factors of listed companies is mainly reflected in four aspects:</p><p><b>First, improve the company's earnings per share.</b>Since buybacks will reduce the number of outstanding shares of listed companies, the decrease in the denominator when calculating earnings per share will directly lead to an increase in EPS, which may also increase the company's stock price.</p><p><b>Second, realize dividend tax avoidance and increase the shareholder wealth of listed companies.</b>Since the tax rate of cash dividends is higher than the tax rate of capital gains, cash return to shareholders by share repurchase instead of dividends can help shareholders achieve reasonable tax avoidance. In the PRC, the Dividend dividend income of individual investors whose shareholding period is less than one month is fully included in the taxable income, and the actual tax burden is 20%, but capital gains are temporarily exempted from income tax.</p><p><b>Thirdly, optimize the capital structure of the company and improve the value of the company through the tax shield effect.</b>No matter how the stock repurchase is carried out, it will reduce the company's owner's equity, and bond repurchase will even increase the company's debt, thus increasing the company's financial leverage ratio and producing a leverage effect. Therefore, for companies with low financial leverage, this can not only optimize the company's capital structure, but also make use of the tax shield effect brought by financing interest to improve the company's value.</p><p><b>Fourth, stock repurchases have high financial flexibility.</b>There are generally two ways for listed companies to return cash to shareholders: cash dividends and stock repurchases. However, the way of paying cash dividends usually makes shareholders expect future dividends, which requires the company to have stable cash flow. However, stock repurchase occurs occasionally. Listed companies can choose the amount, quantity, time, etc. of repurchase relatively freely under the stock repurchase method, which has great financial flexibility compared with the stock repurchase method.</p><p><b>The signal transmission appeal of stock repurchase is mainly based on the assumption of information asymmetry. Listed companies can transmit the signal to the market that the company's stock price is undervalued through stock repurchase, because the company will only carry out stock repurchase when it thinks that its stock price is undervalued. Sending a positive signal to the market in this way has a positive impact on the company's short-term operating income.</b></p><p><b>Share buybacks also help reduce principal-agent risk.</b>Because the management right and ownership of listed companies are separated, and the goals of agent and principal are not completely consistent, it may be that the principal can't clearly understand the goal bias of agent, thus causing the interests of principal to be damaged. Especially when the company's free cash flow is relatively abundant, the company's management may make over-investment or consumption for its own interests, thus encroaching on the interests of the company's shareholders. In this case, the company returns cash to shareholders through stock repurchase, which not only improves the efficiency of cash flow use, but also reduces agency costs and principal-agent risks.</p><p><b>Increasing control right through stock repurchase, preventing equity dilution and hostile takeover are also one of the motives of stock repurchase of listed companies.</b>In the 1980s, with the rise of leveraged mergers and acquisitions in the United States, hostile takeover activities gradually increased. In order to prevent companies from being hostile takeover, listed companies have repurchased shares to increase stock prices, reduce outstanding shares and resist hostile takeover. While there are fewer hostile takeovers now, using the repurchased shares for management's equity incentive program also helps avoid dilution.</p><p><b>2. Financial treatment of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>2.1 The difference between stock cancellation or not after share repurchase</b></p><p>For listed companies, after the stock repurchase is completed, the company can cancel the repurchased shares or keep the repurchased shares as \"treasury shares\".</p><p>The \"treasury shares\" retained by the company still belong to the issued shares, which are held by the company itself, and can be sold to the market at an appropriate time, issued convertible bonds or used as incentives for employees. However, the characteristics of \"treasury shares\" are similar to unissued stocks. \"Treasury shares\" have no voting rights, nor the right to pay dividends, and cannot be realized even after the company goes bankrupt. Therefore, \"treasury shares\" do not participate in the calculation of indicators such as earnings per share, return on net assets and net assets per share.</p><p><b>Therefore, after the stock repurchase is completed, whether the repurchased stocks are cancelled or not, it will not affect financial indicators such as earnings per share, net assets per share and return on net assets, because even if they are retained as \"treasury stocks\", these stocks will not participate in the calculation of these indicators.</b>From this perspective, there will be no big difference between cancelling and not canceling the repurchased shares for companies.</p><p><b>However, in most cases, enterprises will choose to keep the repurchased stocks as \"treasury stocks\" after the stock repurchase is completed.</b>We have counted the handling of stock repurchases of the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks. Among them, 30 listed companies have chosen to repurchase stocks and retained \"treasury shares\", and the other 20 listed companies have chosen to cancel the repurchased stocks or have not carried out stock repurchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485e1f54b04ed2c89a5d83b631a23a53\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The reason why enterprises tend to keep \"treasury stocks\" is mainly because \"treasury stocks\" themselves can bring certain positive significance to enterprises.</b></p><p>First, it can provide the company with sufficient flexibility in terms of financing and reduce financing costs. Since \"treasury shares\" are still issued shares, the company can sell \"treasury shares\" when there is a financing need; Compared with allotment of shares or issuance of new shares, the cost of obtaining funds by selling \"treasury shares\" is lower, which can not only save the supervision and intermediary costs related to issuing shares, but also avoid selling at a discount when the market permits.</p><p>Second, it is conducive to the implementation of incentive plans for employees or management. \"Treasury shares\" are one of the important stock sources for companies to issue equity incentives to employees and management. Therefore, for U.S. listed companies, retaining \"treasury shares\" can facilitate the implementation of equity incentive plans, etc., and avoid the lack of sufficient shares. The source of shares makes the incentive plan unable to be implemented.</p><p>The third is to facilitate the company's mergers and acquisitions and prevent the company from suffering hostile takeover. Merger and acquisition through treasury share exchange can provide certain flexibility for the company's merger and acquisition behavior; In addition, the behavior of retaining \"treasury shares\" after the repurchase can also prevent the company from being hostile takeovers. On the one hand, the repurchase pushes up the stock price, which makes it more difficult for the acquirer. On the other hand, \"treasury shares\" can supplement the number of shares in circulation of the company. Provide buffer time for the company to deal with hostile takeovers.</p><p>Fourth, it is conducive to the stability of stock prices. When there is irrational fluctuation in the market, enterprises can stabilize the price fluctuation by adjusting the supply of outstanding stocks, stabilize the stock price, and avoid the company being greatly affected by irrational factors such as market sentiment.</p><p><b>2.2 How does repurchase lead to negative net assets of enterprises?</b></p><p>Among the benefits that stock repurchases can bring, a very important one is that stock repurchases can increase EPS and the company's overall ROE. This is mainly because stock repurchases will reduce the company's net capital, and a significant decline in the denominator will bring Significant improvements including EPS and ROE. In even more exaggerated circumstances, some U.S.-listed companies have repurchased a large number of issued shares in the form of bond repurchases, resulting in a situation where total liabilities are greater than total assets and negative net assets. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid.</p><p>So how do these listed companies in the United States make their net assets negative through buybacks?<b>The main reason behind this is that there is a huge difference between the book value of equity assets in the financial statements and the market value of stocks in the secondary market. The stock price in the secondary market will not be reflected in the balance sheet, so the book value of stocks and the market value are not equal. When enterprises repurchase, they mainly refer to the market value of stocks, so the cost of repurchasing stocks often has a premium relative to the book value. Therefore, whether it is transferred to treasury stocks after repurchase, used as a deduction item when calculating shareholders' equity, or retained earnings account is offset when cancelled after repurchase, as long as the premium on the cost of repurchased stocks is too large, it may lead to The retained earnings account turned negative, and even caused the company's overall net assets to show a negative value.</b></p><p>Take Starbucks Corporation, for example. In the annual report for fiscal year 2019 (from September 30, 2018 to September 30, 2019) released by Starbucks, the company's total assets dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018 to US $19.22 billion, but its total liabilities dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018. US $22.98 billion rose to US $25.45 billion, which means that Starbucks' net assets, that is, owner's equity, dropped from US $1.18 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-US $6.23 billion in fiscal year 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0772be7e56e10608ecbc5ec6b38ac32\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judging from the shareholder equity breakdown account in Starbucks' balance sheet, the main reason why the company's net assets were less than 0 in 2019 is that the retained earnings account has dropped significantly.</b>In fiscal year 2018, Starbucks' retained earnings still had a balance of nearly US $1.5 billion, but by the end of fiscal year 2019, retained earnings dropped sharply to-US $5.77 billion, which directly led to Starbucks' shareholders' equity turning negative significantly. Since then, the company's retained earnings account has been Maintain a negative state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec889287bc85df1b916c06e198a16507\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The main reason for the negative retained earnings is stock repurchases.</b>Take the first negative retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 as an example. During fiscal year 2019, Starbucks conducted a large number of stock repurchases, and the number of issued share capital dropped from 1.31 billion shares in fiscal year 2018 to 1.18 billion shares. The total share capital decreased by US $100,000, the capital reserve decreased by US $610 million, and the premium part of corporate stock repurchases offset retained earnings by as much as US $9.52 billion.</p><p>From the perspective of changes in owner's equity, the increase or decrease of Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 was mainly affected by changes in accounting policies, net profit, stock repurchases and cash dividends. If the impact of stock repurchases is not taken into account, changes in accounting policies and net profits will increase retained earnings by US $496 million and US $3.599 billion respectively. Even with a cash dividend of US $1.8 billion, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 will still be higher than that at the beginning of the period. increase. However, under the influence of stock repurchases, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 not only did not increase, but decreased significantly, and even experienced a large negative value, ultimately making net assets less than 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c366d6c37385579e78b67920cd8cf623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the financial treatment of shares repurchased and transferred to treasury shares, we can refer to the case of McDonald's Corporation. As early as fiscal year 2016, McDonald's net assets were already less than 0; Since then, McDonald's has continued to issue bonds to repurchase tradable shares and transfer them to treasury stock, resulting in a continuous decline in the company's net assets. As of the end of fiscal year 2019 (December 31, 2019), McDonald's total assets rose from US $32.8 billion at the end of the previous period to US $47.5 billion, while total liabilities also rose significantly from US $39.1 billion to US $55.7 billion. Therefore, McDonald's Shareholder equity dropped from-US $6.3 billion at the end of 2018 to-US $8.2 billion, a record low. Although the company's shareholders' equity has rebounded in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, it still remains negative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74d65757489198ea8fd29d1769560c54\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the perspective of the breakdown of shareholders' equity, the continued decline of McDonald's shareholders' equity in 2019 was mainly due to the continued rise in the cost of treasury shares.</b>The values of capital reserve, retained earnings and other comprehensive income accounts that affect shareholders' equity in fiscal year 2019 all increased compared with fiscal year 2018, while the equity account remained unchanged. Only the allowance item for treasury shares dropped from-61.5 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-66.3 billion US dollars (which means that the cost of purchasing treasury shares increased from 61.5 billion US dollars to 66.3 billion US dollars), and resulted in a significant decline in shareholders' equity. Although the cost of treasury shares continues to rise in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, due to the significant increase in capital reserves and retained earnings accounts, shareholders' equity as a whole has rebounded slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a6095fde99dbb62d4aed332b2ec0f00\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the statement of changes in owner's equity, in fiscal year 2019, McDonald's continued to repurchase 25 million shares, and the total repurchase cost reached US $4.98 billion; At the same time, 4.2 million treasury shares were used to complete the stock exercise subscription plan, and the amount of treasury shares transferred out was US $180 million. Therefore, as of the end of fiscal year 2019, McDonald's repurchased a total of 914 million treasury shares, and the cumulative total cost of repurchasing treasury shares rose from US $61.5 billion to US $66.3 billion, resulting in a continued decline in shareholder equity to-US $8.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1653e1d47f48f71ec3b559f0778ebed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Stock repurchases are conducive to driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>3.1 The main logic of buybacks driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>There are two main mechanisms for repurchases to promote the rise of stock prices. First, listed companies can directly increase the demand for the company's stocks to increase the stock price by repurchasing stocks, which is also the most direct channel for stock repurchases to have an impact.</b></p><p><b>In fact, since the financial crisis in 2008, listed companies themselves have been a very important participant in the US stock market.</b>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve, between 2009 and 2021, among the major players in the equity market, ETF funds have accumulated a net purchase of US $2.77 trillion in stocks, and U.S. households and non-profit institutions have accumulated a net purchase of US $1.17 trillion. Mutual funds and other financial institutions have accumulated net sales of US $90.1 billion and US $2.27 trillion in equity assets respectively. The amount traded by non-financial companies to buy back shares has soared sharply in the past decade, with the cumulative amount of transactions in this part alone reaching nearly $5 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15b3c3aacf75c2cbd431cf148c3a3c19\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9120a876d16c099ebeb3de8eeb78c05d\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We can assume that Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares and simulate its stock price performance before and after implementing the share repurchase to study the impact of the repurchase. According to the financial valuation model, the company's market value depends on indicators such as future cash flow or net profit, so the behavior of stock repurchase will not affect the company's total market value. We assume that before the repurchase, Company A had 20 billion outstanding shares, each worth 10 yuan, and the total market value was 200 billion yuan; This time, Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares. After the repurchase, there are still 16 billion shares in circulation. Since the total market value remains unchanged at 200 billion yuan, the price of each share will rise to 12.5 yuan, which is the same as the repurchase. Compared with before, the stock price rose by 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8de2f35668d54b51facdda584daeebe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The second mechanism by which buybacks drive stock prices higher is by improving financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies.</b></p><p>Since Company A's repurchase behavior will not lead to changes in the company's net profit, the net profit before and after the repurchase is 50 billion yuan, so after the repurchase, Company A's EPS will rise from 2.5 yuan to 3.125 yuan, an increase of 25%.</p><p>The same is true for the stock market as a whole. Historical data shows that the trend of S&P 500 EPS is highly consistent with the trend of S&P 500 repurchase scale. From the trend point of view, the trend of S&P 500 Index EPS and repurchase scale has roughly gone through three stages since 2000. From 2000 to 2007, the index EPS increased slowly, and the scale of company repurchases also continued to increase. Index repurchases The amount of reduced share capital continues to rise. During the financial crisis in 2008, EPS fell sharply, and corporate buybacks also fell off a cliff. With the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, the EPS and repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index have been on the rise again since 2010. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the two experienced a short decline simultaneously.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3dc2083f3850c07834b3b5601694d4\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As an important financial indicator in the investment research system, ROE will also increase significantly after the company repurchases stocks. Take Apple as an example. Before 2012, there was basically no stock repurchase of its listed companies. 2013 was a turning point, and then the amount of repurchases began to soar sharply. If we look at the growth rate of net profit alone, Apple's fiscal year 2012 was US $41.7 billion and fiscal year 2021 was US $94.7 billion. The annualized compound growth rate of net profit is only 9.5%. When this growth rate is put in the A-share market, it is not a high-tech company at all, but more like a public utility company. But through a large number of share buybacks, Apple's ROE has increased from about 30% in 2013 to 150% in 2021. By fiscal year 2021, Apple's repurchases of common shares will be as high as US $86 billion, which can almost offset the net profit of that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2085bad141a0aa1528e6132dcceafae8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stock repurchases will not only increase the ROE of listed companies, but even make the company's ROE turn negative in more exaggerated cases. In the A-share market, we often see companies with negative ROE. In this case, listed companies are losing money, so the net profit (numerator) is negative. In the U.S. stock market, many companies have made their net assets (denominator) negative because of too many repurchases. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid. The following table reports the changes in McDonald's stock repurchases and ROE from fiscal years 2007 to 2021. It can be seen that before 2014, the company's ROE was roughly 35%. Then a large number of repurchases began. In 2015, the ROE reached 63%. After 2016, the company's share capital was negative, making the ROE negative.</p><p>Negative net assets mean that the company is insolvent in traditional textbooks, which is a signal that it is on the verge of bankruptcy. However, in the current US stock market, the stock prices of many such companies continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b35b389852b97d68f11e2f01e54e78b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Stock repurchases will push up stock price yields</b></p><p><b>Stock returns come from Dividend dividends and changes in market value, and changes in market value are affected by profits and valuations. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term investment, stock returns can be decomposed into three parts: dividend repurchase income, stock valuation and corporate profits. Among them, dividend repurchase income occupies a very important position in the total stock return. In the American stock market, dividend repurchase income can even be said to be the main source of income for stock assets. Therefore, stock repurchases will have a significant impact on stock price returns, and we can see that the gap between the total return index and the ordinary index will increase with the repurchase.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bbb8fd064eb67ec1fa8705dca4d95dc\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the investment period of more than 30 years since the beginning of 1989, even after two major crises, the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008, investing in U.S. stocks will still bring very rich returns, among which dividend income occupies a very important position, which is reflected in the gap between the long-term trend of the S&P 500 Total Return Index and the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Total Return Index has been adjusted on the basis of the S&P 500 Index, and the dividends of sample stocks are included in the index income. The cumulative increase of the adjusted S&P 500 Total Return Index is nearly 30 times, while the increase of the S&P 500 Index is only 14.2 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3438f479b888125f194b418925a29206\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Philip U. Straehl et al. (The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal) An in-depth study was conducted on the long-term yield of the U.S. stock market from 1871 to 2014. The study found that, including the Dividend distributed by the company and the income generated by stock repurchases, dividend repurchase income can explain the historical yield of U.S. stocks. vast majority,<b>Especially after the rapid development of stock repurchases in 1970, the impact of repurchases on improving stock price returns was more significant.</b>From 1871 to 2014, the real yield of U.S. stocks (after excluding inflation) was about 7%, of which Dividend's yield was 4.5%. If the income from company repurchases is considered, the total dividend repurchase yield will rise to 4.89%, accounting for more than two-thirds of the real yield of U.S. stocks. The above conclusion is still valid after adjusting the research range of U.S. stocks. From 1901 to 2014, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.58%, of which the part from Dividend's income reached 4.29%. Including the corporate repurchase part, the total dividend repurchase The rate of return reached 4.78%; From 1970 to 2014, the Dividend income generated by U.S. stocks was 3.03%. After taking corporate buybacks into account, this part of the income rose to 4.26%. During the same period, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad0938835357fb43662b8316e408bdd\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 After the repurchase, the stock price-to-book ratio will change significantly compared with the P/E</b></p><p>While share buybacks can boost stock prices, they do not necessarily affect valuations. To be more accurate, stock repurchases will not affect P/E, but will increase the price-to-book ratio. Therefore, after listed companies repurchase shares substantially, we will see significant changes in PB relative to PE.</p><p>The main reason for this difference is that the share repurchase will not affect the company's total market value and net profit, but will lead to a decrease in equity, which will cause the company's price-to-book ratio to increase significantly while the P/E remains unchanged. We assume that Company A has repurchased 20% of its shares at the market price. After the repurchase, the company's total equity will drop from 200 billion yuan to 160 billion yuan. Under the condition that the company's total market value remains unchanged, the price-to-book ratio will increase from the original 1 times to 1.25 times. Since the company's net profit has not been affected, P/E will continue to maintain the level of 4 times before the repurchase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b19d2fc9b3c26a462087305561545\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even from the perspective of the whole market, there is this relationship between P/E and price-to-book ratio. We have standardized the P/E and price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 Index. From the trend point of view, with the substantial increase in the repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index after 2010, the PB increase of the S&P 500 Index is significantly higher than that of PE. Larger, from the beginning of 2010 to April 25, 2022, the PE of the S&P 500 Index has increased from 19 times to 21.3 times, and the PB has increased from 2.0 times to 4.3 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d00d74505bd293d3aabeddec93c61174\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Under the stock repurchase, the company's stock price has increased significantly, but P/E has not been affected. Therefore, we see that the current P/E of the S&P 500 index is 21.3 times, which is 56.9% in the historical quantile since 1991. Far from overvalued. This is because the company's EPS has also increased accordingly, but in fact, for the company's value, the increase in EPS brought about by the reduction of equity capital has not created more value for the company, and to a greater extent, it is only a digital game. It is precisely for this reason that if we look at the price-to-book ratio, the current price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 index is 4.3 times, which has reached the historical quantile of 88.6% since the beginning of 1991.</p><p><b>4. Potential risks of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>4.1 Stock market repurchases may lead to a decline in market liquidity</b></p><p><b>The long-term bull market of U.S. stocks in the past ten years has been the second longest-lasting bull market in the history of U.S. stocks since World War II, but it is the only bull market that has emerged against the background of a significant decline in trading volume.</b>Since 2010, as the index price continues to rise, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index has declined year by year. At the end of March 2022, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index was only 17.4 billion, which has dropped to the level of the late 1990s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/061522652b140a8b126f90d429219659\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>An important reason for the price increase and volume decline of U.S. stocks is that a large number of share repurchases by listed companies have reduced the number of shares in circulation in the market, which will also lead to a decline in market liquidity. Take Apple as an example. Since 2013, the company has continuously increased the scale of stock repurchases, and the current number of outstanding shares in the market is 16.32 billion shares, a decrease of nearly 40% compared with the peak level at the end of 2012.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289a5dc4fdb8aaa08f16cc8f333300d2\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the sharp increase in the scale of passive investment is also an important reason for the sharp decline in U.S. stock trading volume, and U.S. stock repurchases can strengthen the positive feedback logic of passive investment in the bull market and further promote the increase in the scale of passive investment.</b>The repurchase of stocks by listed companies has brought about an increase in stock prices. Since passive investment has the advantages of low fee rates and better medium-and long-term performance in the bull market than active funds, investors have bought passive funds one after another, and the increased funds have flowed into index constituent stocks, superimposed on listed companies. The company continues to buy back stocks, further pushing the stock index up and increasing the scale of capital inflows into passive investment. This positive feedback model has continued in the U.S. stock market over the past decade, so we have seen that the asset size of ETFs in the U.S. stock market has increased significantly since 2009.</p><p><b>In the case of a sharp decline in liquidity, once the upward trend of the index is reversed, the positive feedback mechanism of passive investment will also be reversed immediately, which will contribute to the decline of the market. Such a large-scale gushing of funds can easily cause a stampede, and there is a high probability that it will bring very serious consequences.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04884a97efb5559e375ab06921927940\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.2 Repurchases prompt listed companies to use financial leverage to the extreme</b></p><p>Repurchase itself can be regarded as a kind of dividend policy of the company. The change in recent years is that the method of \"bond issuance and repurchase\" is favored by more and more companies, which makes listed companies use financial leverage to the extreme.</p><p>Many listed companies have repurchased a large number of shares, making their net assets negative and their asset-liability ratio rise to more than 100%, forming an insolvency situation in corporate financial management in the traditional sense. McDonald's, which was cited earlier when introducing the financial principles involved in repurchases, is an example. The company's asset-liability ratio was only 63% in 2014, and reached a maximum of 119% in 2018. In recent years, it still exceeds 100%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7204db63d2dfbd643ab86e4b40f7980\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Starbucks is another example. In 2017, the asset-liability ratio was only 62%, reached a maximum of 132% in 2019, and it will still be 117% in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93949197cb727b87db6cec84808a0901\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The debt leverage ratio of listed companies in the United States is ridiculously high, and financial leverage is used to the extreme. Take the S&P 500 constituent stocks in the table below as an example. The 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratios all have asset-liability ratios exceeding 90%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a3ce4721d3e0185ce386b5657c76cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"988\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Financial leverage and asset-liability ratio are important indicators to measure financial risks, and also important reference factors in corporate credit rating system. The increase of corporate financial leverage and asset-liability ratio will inevitably lead to the increase of financial risks, and will inevitably affect the credit rating of enterprises.</p><p>We have compiled statistics on the current credit ratings of the main companies constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index in the United States. The data shows that more than 80% of the corporate entities in the S&P 500 Index constituent stocks have investment grade credit ratings, and more than 10% of corporate investment entities have speculative credit ratings. In addition, it is worth noting that among the current investment-grade main companies, the credit rating of most companies is the lowest level of investment-grade, that is, Baa, which means that in the case of large fluctuations in the external economic environment, most companies may face the risk of lowering their credit rating from investment grade to speculative grade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c25dff19b1c181a4f5a0e5ed1182387\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e45b03dcf8e324c10f228abce824fe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the sample range of companies is narrowed to the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks, we can see that the proportion of companies with speculative credit ratings has increased significantly.</b>Under Moody's classification rating, among these 50 companies, the number of speculative-grade companies accounts for 23.3%, and under the S&P rating classification it is 36.2%, both of which are significantly higher than the proportion of corresponding classifications under all S&P 500 constituent stocks. Similarly, among investment-grade entity companies, Baa (Moody's's lowest investment-grade rating) or BBB (Standard & Poor's lowest investment-grade rating) accounts for an overwhelming proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba608d69d552164772f0c78db122613c\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1825ece9b330eff6989d428d65b10aeb\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The impact of large-scale bond repurchase on corporate credit rating is significant. In 2015, the Moody's credit rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds dropped by two consecutive levels, mainly because it planned to increase the issuance of Dividend and stock repurchases through bond issuance. In May 2015, Moody's downgraded the rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds from A2 to A3. Part of the reason for this downgrade is that McDonald's plans to accelerate the return of $8 billion to $9 billion to shareholders through dividend distribution and stock buybacks. Moody's believes that McDonald's guidance to accelerate stock buybacks and distribute high Dividend is a manifestation of its aggressive financial policy, which will lead to a sharp increase in debt levels. In November 2015, Moody's downgraded McDonald's corporate credit rating to Baa1 again as McDonald's announced that it would increase the amount returned to shareholders through bond issuance.</p><p>In addition, in 2015, Standard & Poor's downgraded McDonald's rating twice, and McDonald's long-term issuer credit rating dropped from A to A-and then to BBB +. In the same year, Fitch Ratings directly downgraded McDonald's long-term issuer default rating from A to BBB +, and again to BBB in 2016.</p><p>The same is true of Starbucks. In November 2017, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to A3. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks planned to return $15 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases from 2018 to 2020, and part of the returned funds would come from additional debt. Moody's believes that this will lead to a significant increase in debt levels and a substantial deterioration in credit indicators, so it downgraded Starbucks' corporate bond rating. In June 2018, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to Baa1 again. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks decided to significantly increase debt to increase the amount returned to shareholders to $25 billion. Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings also downgraded their corporate ratings after Starbucks decided to issue bonds to repurchase shares, and Starbucks' rating dropped from A to BBB +.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0625be465abe14191484b6704a99229\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the high debt leverage ratio itself is not a sufficient condition for the stock price to fall, but it does also lay the hidden danger of corporate debt default. Especially in the Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, the credit risk caused by high financial leverage is continuing to rise.</b></p><p><b>5. The experience of U.S. stock repurchase on A-shares</b></p><p>Compared with the U.S. stock market, the current scale of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies is still at an extremely low level. As of April 26, 2022, in fiscal year 2021, the total amount used by U.S. listed companies to repurchase common shares and preferred shares reached 7.37 trillion yuan, while the amount of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies during the same period was only 121.1 billion yuan, less than 2% of U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18608cdb64ca03bda791eb503fb57cdb\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, from the trend point of view, after the release of the new regulations on stock repurchase in 2018, the enthusiasm of A-share listed companies for repurchases has increased significantly, and the scale of repurchases has expanded significantly. In the whole year of 2012, only 11 A-share listed companies conducted share repurchases, with a total repurchase amount of 2.5 billion yuan; For the whole year of 2021, the number of listed companies conducting A-share stock repurchases has risen to 994, and the cumulative repurchase amount for the whole year has reached 121.1 billion yuan.</p><p>In the article \"Enlightenment from Previous A-share Repurchase Booms\", we review the performance of listed companies in previous A-share repurchase booms, and found that 1) undervalued companies had obvious excess returns after the release of the repurchase plan; 2) The proportion of the company's repurchase amount to the total market value is positively correlated with excess returns; 3) Company repurchases have a long-term supporting effect on stock prices.</p><p>Therefore, whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support the stock price to a certain extent or even push the stock price up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies. On the one hand, we believe that as A-share listed companies conduct more corporate repurchases in the future, there is still potential room for the company's stock price to rise. On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, there has been a new round of stock market repurchase boom in the market. As of April 15th, the amount of repurchases implemented by listed companies during the year was about 27.2 billion yuan, and the number of companies that have implemented repurchases during the year exceeded 400. More and more listed companies' repurchases also highlight their confidence in the future market to a certain extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4606ec8bf026e232ce9427bc25c625f\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(All individual stock information involved in this report is only a summary of public information, and does not constitute any profit forecast and investment rating)</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zxjzzl","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Understand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnderstand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">追寻价值之路</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-28 14:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support stock prices to a certain extent or even push stock prices up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies.<b>Core conclusions</b></p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest. After years of development, it has become a common means in the capital market. Especially in the last ten years, the scale of repurchase by listed companies in the United States has soared sharply.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the U.S. stock market, this article discusses and sorts out issues related to stock repurchases. The main contents are divided into five parts:</p><p>The first part introduces the basic concept of stock repurchase, including four common ways of repurchase and the motivation of stock repurchase; The second part discusses the related financial treatment of stock repurchase, involving whether to choose the financial treatment of canceling shares after repurchase and why some enterprises have negative net assets after repurchase; The third part sorts out the logic that stock repurchases are conducive to stock price rises. One is to directly increase the demand for company stocks, and the other is to improve financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies. In addition, judging from the performance of U.S. stocks, stock repurchases It is an important part of stock price yields, and the impact of repurchases on price-to-book ratios is more significant than P/E; The fourth part discusses the potential risks of stock repurchase, mainly including the decline of market liquidity and the high financial leverage risk of listed companies caused by repurchase; The fifth part is an introduction to the current repurchase situation of A shares and the experience of US stock repurchase on A shares. Risk warning: Repurchases increase financial leverage risks, historical experience does not represent the future, the macro economy is less than expected, and overseas markets fluctuate significantly</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. Introduction to the basic concepts of stock repurchase</b></p><p><b>1.1 What is a share repurchase?</b></p><p>Stock repurchase refers to the behavior of listed companies using cash and other means to repurchase a certain amount of outstanding stocks of the company from the stock market, which will reduce the number of outstanding stocks of the company, thereby achieving market value management, equity incentives, and stabilizing stock prices. and other positive effects.</p><p>There are two main sources of funds for enterprises to repurchase stocks: one is internal funds, including net profits obtained from daily operations of enterprises or cash sources such as government tax cuts and tax rebates, as well as self-owned funds such as the original retained earnings of enterprises; The second is external funds, which borrow money and add leverage through bond issuance and other means to achieve share repurchase.</p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest, especially after the 1980s. Previously, because western European and American countries advocated the theory of maintaining corporate capital, and the repurchase behavior itself was suspected of market manipulation, few companies conducted stock repurchases. It was not until the 1980s that stock repurchases began to gradually develop. After more than 40 years of development, stock repurchase has become a common means in developed capital markets. It is widely used to optimize the capital structure, enhance the company's value, or send positive signals when the company's stock price is undervalued.</p><p><b>1.2 Four common ways of stock repurchase</b></p><p>According to the different methods of determining the repurchase price, stock repurchase can generally be divided into four basic methods: open market operation, cash offer repurchase, agreement repurchase and transferable sale right repurchase.</p><p>Open market repurchase is a popular stock repurchase method in the current US market. Listed companies that repurchase shares through the open market will directly repurchase shares in the open market at the current market price. Stock repurchases under this method are more flexible. Listed companies can freely decide factors such as the time and quantity of repurchases according to their own circumstances. Moreover, stock repurchases under this method do not need to pay additional premiums.</p><p>Another more common method of stock repurchase is offer repurchase. There are generally two pricing methods for listed companies to repurchase stocks through tender offers. One is to use a fixed price to issue an offer to shareholders within an agreed period to purchase a certain number of stocks. Listed companies generally choose this pricing method when they need a large number of company stocks in a short period of time. However, a sharp increase in demand in the short term will lead to paying a certain premium for repurchasing stocks. Another pricing method under tender offer repurchase is Dutch auction repurchase, which will give the company greater flexibility in the repurchase price, so it is also widely used. In Dutch auction repurchase, the listed company sets the range of repurchase price and the quantity planned to repurchase, and then shareholders express the number of shares they are willing to sell at a certain level within the price range. Finally, the listed company will summarize the wishes of all shareholders and repurchase shares according to the low to high price order until the established repurchase quantity of the listed company is reached.</p><p>Agreement buybacks are less transparent compared to open market buybacks and offer buybacks. Because under the agreement repurchase method, listed companies directly enter into private agreements with some shareholders to repurchase shares according to the price and quantity agreed in the agreement. This method is relatively free in terms of pricing, transaction time and payment method, and usually the negotiated price is lower than the market price.</p><p>Transferable right of sale repurchase is a special way of stock repurchase. The company that implements stock repurchase gives shareholders the right to sell their stocks to the company at a specific price within a certain period of time. Once this right is formed, it can be separated and traded with the attached stocks. Listed companies issue transferable authorizations to their shareholders, and shareholders who are unwilling to sell their shares can sell this right separately to meet the different demands of various shareholders.</p><p><b>1.3 Why Stock Repurchase?</b></p><p>The benefits of share repurchases are multifaceted. From the perspective of the company as a whole, whether it is internal or external funds to repurchase shares, it can improve the capital structure of the enterprise and reduce the cost of supervision and restraint on the company's management. The way of issuing bonds to repurchase shares can also make use of the tax shield effect of debts to achieve reasonable tax avoidance, and urge the management to focus on the debt repayment and long-term sustainable operation of the enterprise. For those shareholders who sell their stocks in the stock repurchase plan, they can sell their stocks to obtain liquidity. In addition, compared with the direct distribution of cash Dividend, since capital gains are generally not taxed or the tax rate is lower, effective tax avoidance can be achieved by distributing dividends through stock repurchase. Shareholders who still hold shares after the company implements the repurchase plan can also benefit. As the net capital of the enterprise will be significantly reduced after the completion of the stock repurchase, under the condition that other conditions remain unchanged, the financial indicators such as the return on net assets, earnings per share, and net assets per share of the enterprise will all be significantly improved. If we classify the motivations of listed companies' stock repurchases, we can also classify them into the following four categories: one is financial motivation, the other is signal transmission appeal, the third is to reduce principal-agent risks, and the fourth is to increase company control to prevent hostile takeovers.</p><p><b>The financial motivation of listed companies to buy back shares is mainly related to their capital structure and dividend policy. Listed companies often buy back shares for financial reasons such as increasing earnings per share, improving capital structure and increasing shareholder wealth effect.</b>Specifically, the improvement of stock repurchase on the financial-related factors of listed companies is mainly reflected in four aspects:</p><p><b>First, improve the company's earnings per share.</b>Since buybacks will reduce the number of outstanding shares of listed companies, the decrease in the denominator when calculating earnings per share will directly lead to an increase in EPS, which may also increase the company's stock price.</p><p><b>Second, realize dividend tax avoidance and increase the shareholder wealth of listed companies.</b>Since the tax rate of cash dividends is higher than the tax rate of capital gains, cash return to shareholders by share repurchase instead of dividends can help shareholders achieve reasonable tax avoidance. In the PRC, the Dividend dividend income of individual investors whose shareholding period is less than one month is fully included in the taxable income, and the actual tax burden is 20%, but capital gains are temporarily exempted from income tax.</p><p><b>Thirdly, optimize the capital structure of the company and improve the value of the company through the tax shield effect.</b>No matter how the stock repurchase is carried out, it will reduce the company's owner's equity, and bond repurchase will even increase the company's debt, thus increasing the company's financial leverage ratio and producing a leverage effect. Therefore, for companies with low financial leverage, this can not only optimize the company's capital structure, but also make use of the tax shield effect brought by financing interest to improve the company's value.</p><p><b>Fourth, stock repurchases have high financial flexibility.</b>There are generally two ways for listed companies to return cash to shareholders: cash dividends and stock repurchases. However, the way of paying cash dividends usually makes shareholders expect future dividends, which requires the company to have stable cash flow. However, stock repurchase occurs occasionally. Listed companies can choose the amount, quantity, time, etc. of repurchase relatively freely under the stock repurchase method, which has great financial flexibility compared with the stock repurchase method.</p><p><b>The signal transmission appeal of stock repurchase is mainly based on the assumption of information asymmetry. Listed companies can transmit the signal to the market that the company's stock price is undervalued through stock repurchase, because the company will only carry out stock repurchase when it thinks that its stock price is undervalued. Sending a positive signal to the market in this way has a positive impact on the company's short-term operating income.</b></p><p><b>Share buybacks also help reduce principal-agent risk.</b>Because the management right and ownership of listed companies are separated, and the goals of agent and principal are not completely consistent, it may be that the principal can't clearly understand the goal bias of agent, thus causing the interests of principal to be damaged. Especially when the company's free cash flow is relatively abundant, the company's management may make over-investment or consumption for its own interests, thus encroaching on the interests of the company's shareholders. In this case, the company returns cash to shareholders through stock repurchase, which not only improves the efficiency of cash flow use, but also reduces agency costs and principal-agent risks.</p><p><b>Increasing control right through stock repurchase, preventing equity dilution and hostile takeover are also one of the motives of stock repurchase of listed companies.</b>In the 1980s, with the rise of leveraged mergers and acquisitions in the United States, hostile takeover activities gradually increased. In order to prevent companies from being hostile takeover, listed companies have repurchased shares to increase stock prices, reduce outstanding shares and resist hostile takeover. While there are fewer hostile takeovers now, using the repurchased shares for management's equity incentive program also helps avoid dilution.</p><p><b>2. Financial treatment of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>2.1 The difference between stock cancellation or not after share repurchase</b></p><p>For listed companies, after the stock repurchase is completed, the company can cancel the repurchased shares or keep the repurchased shares as \"treasury shares\".</p><p>The \"treasury shares\" retained by the company still belong to the issued shares, which are held by the company itself, and can be sold to the market at an appropriate time, issued convertible bonds or used as incentives for employees. However, the characteristics of \"treasury shares\" are similar to unissued stocks. \"Treasury shares\" have no voting rights, nor the right to pay dividends, and cannot be realized even after the company goes bankrupt. Therefore, \"treasury shares\" do not participate in the calculation of indicators such as earnings per share, return on net assets and net assets per share.</p><p><b>Therefore, after the stock repurchase is completed, whether the repurchased stocks are cancelled or not, it will not affect financial indicators such as earnings per share, net assets per share and return on net assets, because even if they are retained as \"treasury stocks\", these stocks will not participate in the calculation of these indicators.</b>From this perspective, there will be no big difference between cancelling and not canceling the repurchased shares for companies.</p><p><b>However, in most cases, enterprises will choose to keep the repurchased stocks as \"treasury stocks\" after the stock repurchase is completed.</b>We have counted the handling of stock repurchases of the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks. Among them, 30 listed companies have chosen to repurchase stocks and retained \"treasury shares\", and the other 20 listed companies have chosen to cancel the repurchased stocks or have not carried out stock repurchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485e1f54b04ed2c89a5d83b631a23a53\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The reason why enterprises tend to keep \"treasury stocks\" is mainly because \"treasury stocks\" themselves can bring certain positive significance to enterprises.</b></p><p>First, it can provide the company with sufficient flexibility in terms of financing and reduce financing costs. Since \"treasury shares\" are still issued shares, the company can sell \"treasury shares\" when there is a financing need; Compared with allotment of shares or issuance of new shares, the cost of obtaining funds by selling \"treasury shares\" is lower, which can not only save the supervision and intermediary costs related to issuing shares, but also avoid selling at a discount when the market permits.</p><p>Second, it is conducive to the implementation of incentive plans for employees or management. \"Treasury shares\" are one of the important stock sources for companies to issue equity incentives to employees and management. Therefore, for U.S. listed companies, retaining \"treasury shares\" can facilitate the implementation of equity incentive plans, etc., and avoid the lack of sufficient shares. The source of shares makes the incentive plan unable to be implemented.</p><p>The third is to facilitate the company's mergers and acquisitions and prevent the company from suffering hostile takeover. Merger and acquisition through treasury share exchange can provide certain flexibility for the company's merger and acquisition behavior; In addition, the behavior of retaining \"treasury shares\" after the repurchase can also prevent the company from being hostile takeovers. On the one hand, the repurchase pushes up the stock price, which makes it more difficult for the acquirer. On the other hand, \"treasury shares\" can supplement the number of shares in circulation of the company. Provide buffer time for the company to deal with hostile takeovers.</p><p>Fourth, it is conducive to the stability of stock prices. When there is irrational fluctuation in the market, enterprises can stabilize the price fluctuation by adjusting the supply of outstanding stocks, stabilize the stock price, and avoid the company being greatly affected by irrational factors such as market sentiment.</p><p><b>2.2 How does repurchase lead to negative net assets of enterprises?</b></p><p>Among the benefits that stock repurchases can bring, a very important one is that stock repurchases can increase EPS and the company's overall ROE. This is mainly because stock repurchases will reduce the company's net capital, and a significant decline in the denominator will bring Significant improvements including EPS and ROE. In even more exaggerated circumstances, some U.S.-listed companies have repurchased a large number of issued shares in the form of bond repurchases, resulting in a situation where total liabilities are greater than total assets and negative net assets. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid.</p><p>So how do these listed companies in the United States make their net assets negative through buybacks?<b>The main reason behind this is that there is a huge difference between the book value of equity assets in the financial statements and the market value of stocks in the secondary market. The stock price in the secondary market will not be reflected in the balance sheet, so the book value of stocks and the market value are not equal. When enterprises repurchase, they mainly refer to the market value of stocks, so the cost of repurchasing stocks often has a premium relative to the book value. Therefore, whether it is transferred to treasury stocks after repurchase, used as a deduction item when calculating shareholders' equity, or retained earnings account is offset when cancelled after repurchase, as long as the premium on the cost of repurchased stocks is too large, it may lead to The retained earnings account turned negative, and even caused the company's overall net assets to show a negative value.</b></p><p>Take Starbucks Corporation, for example. In the annual report for fiscal year 2019 (from September 30, 2018 to September 30, 2019) released by Starbucks, the company's total assets dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018 to US $19.22 billion, but its total liabilities dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018. US $22.98 billion rose to US $25.45 billion, which means that Starbucks' net assets, that is, owner's equity, dropped from US $1.18 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-US $6.23 billion in fiscal year 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0772be7e56e10608ecbc5ec6b38ac32\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judging from the shareholder equity breakdown account in Starbucks' balance sheet, the main reason why the company's net assets were less than 0 in 2019 is that the retained earnings account has dropped significantly.</b>In fiscal year 2018, Starbucks' retained earnings still had a balance of nearly US $1.5 billion, but by the end of fiscal year 2019, retained earnings dropped sharply to-US $5.77 billion, which directly led to Starbucks' shareholders' equity turning negative significantly. Since then, the company's retained earnings account has been Maintain a negative state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec889287bc85df1b916c06e198a16507\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The main reason for the negative retained earnings is stock repurchases.</b>Take the first negative retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 as an example. During fiscal year 2019, Starbucks conducted a large number of stock repurchases, and the number of issued share capital dropped from 1.31 billion shares in fiscal year 2018 to 1.18 billion shares. The total share capital decreased by US $100,000, the capital reserve decreased by US $610 million, and the premium part of corporate stock repurchases offset retained earnings by as much as US $9.52 billion.</p><p>From the perspective of changes in owner's equity, the increase or decrease of Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 was mainly affected by changes in accounting policies, net profit, stock repurchases and cash dividends. If the impact of stock repurchases is not taken into account, changes in accounting policies and net profits will increase retained earnings by US $496 million and US $3.599 billion respectively. Even with a cash dividend of US $1.8 billion, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 will still be higher than that at the beginning of the period. increase. However, under the influence of stock repurchases, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 not only did not increase, but decreased significantly, and even experienced a large negative value, ultimately making net assets less than 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c366d6c37385579e78b67920cd8cf623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the financial treatment of shares repurchased and transferred to treasury shares, we can refer to the case of McDonald's Corporation. As early as fiscal year 2016, McDonald's net assets were already less than 0; Since then, McDonald's has continued to issue bonds to repurchase tradable shares and transfer them to treasury stock, resulting in a continuous decline in the company's net assets. As of the end of fiscal year 2019 (December 31, 2019), McDonald's total assets rose from US $32.8 billion at the end of the previous period to US $47.5 billion, while total liabilities also rose significantly from US $39.1 billion to US $55.7 billion. Therefore, McDonald's Shareholder equity dropped from-US $6.3 billion at the end of 2018 to-US $8.2 billion, a record low. Although the company's shareholders' equity has rebounded in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, it still remains negative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74d65757489198ea8fd29d1769560c54\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the perspective of the breakdown of shareholders' equity, the continued decline of McDonald's shareholders' equity in 2019 was mainly due to the continued rise in the cost of treasury shares.</b>The values of capital reserve, retained earnings and other comprehensive income accounts that affect shareholders' equity in fiscal year 2019 all increased compared with fiscal year 2018, while the equity account remained unchanged. Only the allowance item for treasury shares dropped from-61.5 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-66.3 billion US dollars (which means that the cost of purchasing treasury shares increased from 61.5 billion US dollars to 66.3 billion US dollars), and resulted in a significant decline in shareholders' equity. Although the cost of treasury shares continues to rise in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, due to the significant increase in capital reserves and retained earnings accounts, shareholders' equity as a whole has rebounded slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a6095fde99dbb62d4aed332b2ec0f00\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the statement of changes in owner's equity, in fiscal year 2019, McDonald's continued to repurchase 25 million shares, and the total repurchase cost reached US $4.98 billion; At the same time, 4.2 million treasury shares were used to complete the stock exercise subscription plan, and the amount of treasury shares transferred out was US $180 million. Therefore, as of the end of fiscal year 2019, McDonald's repurchased a total of 914 million treasury shares, and the cumulative total cost of repurchasing treasury shares rose from US $61.5 billion to US $66.3 billion, resulting in a continued decline in shareholder equity to-US $8.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1653e1d47f48f71ec3b559f0778ebed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Stock repurchases are conducive to driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>3.1 The main logic of buybacks driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>There are two main mechanisms for repurchases to promote the rise of stock prices. First, listed companies can directly increase the demand for the company's stocks to increase the stock price by repurchasing stocks, which is also the most direct channel for stock repurchases to have an impact.</b></p><p><b>In fact, since the financial crisis in 2008, listed companies themselves have been a very important participant in the US stock market.</b>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve, between 2009 and 2021, among the major players in the equity market, ETF funds have accumulated a net purchase of US $2.77 trillion in stocks, and U.S. households and non-profit institutions have accumulated a net purchase of US $1.17 trillion. Mutual funds and other financial institutions have accumulated net sales of US $90.1 billion and US $2.27 trillion in equity assets respectively. The amount traded by non-financial companies to buy back shares has soared sharply in the past decade, with the cumulative amount of transactions in this part alone reaching nearly $5 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15b3c3aacf75c2cbd431cf148c3a3c19\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9120a876d16c099ebeb3de8eeb78c05d\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We can assume that Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares and simulate its stock price performance before and after implementing the share repurchase to study the impact of the repurchase. According to the financial valuation model, the company's market value depends on indicators such as future cash flow or net profit, so the behavior of stock repurchase will not affect the company's total market value. We assume that before the repurchase, Company A had 20 billion outstanding shares, each worth 10 yuan, and the total market value was 200 billion yuan; This time, Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares. After the repurchase, there are still 16 billion shares in circulation. Since the total market value remains unchanged at 200 billion yuan, the price of each share will rise to 12.5 yuan, which is the same as the repurchase. Compared with before, the stock price rose by 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8de2f35668d54b51facdda584daeebe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The second mechanism by which buybacks drive stock prices higher is by improving financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies.</b></p><p>Since Company A's repurchase behavior will not lead to changes in the company's net profit, the net profit before and after the repurchase is 50 billion yuan, so after the repurchase, Company A's EPS will rise from 2.5 yuan to 3.125 yuan, an increase of 25%.</p><p>The same is true for the stock market as a whole. Historical data shows that the trend of S&P 500 EPS is highly consistent with the trend of S&P 500 repurchase scale. From the trend point of view, the trend of S&P 500 Index EPS and repurchase scale has roughly gone through three stages since 2000. From 2000 to 2007, the index EPS increased slowly, and the scale of company repurchases also continued to increase. Index repurchases The amount of reduced share capital continues to rise. During the financial crisis in 2008, EPS fell sharply, and corporate buybacks also fell off a cliff. With the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, the EPS and repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index have been on the rise again since 2010. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the two experienced a short decline simultaneously.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3dc2083f3850c07834b3b5601694d4\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As an important financial indicator in the investment research system, ROE will also increase significantly after the company repurchases stocks. Take Apple as an example. Before 2012, there was basically no stock repurchase of its listed companies. 2013 was a turning point, and then the amount of repurchases began to soar sharply. If we look at the growth rate of net profit alone, Apple's fiscal year 2012 was US $41.7 billion and fiscal year 2021 was US $94.7 billion. The annualized compound growth rate of net profit is only 9.5%. When this growth rate is put in the A-share market, it is not a high-tech company at all, but more like a public utility company. But through a large number of share buybacks, Apple's ROE has increased from about 30% in 2013 to 150% in 2021. By fiscal year 2021, Apple's repurchases of common shares will be as high as US $86 billion, which can almost offset the net profit of that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2085bad141a0aa1528e6132dcceafae8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stock repurchases will not only increase the ROE of listed companies, but even make the company's ROE turn negative in more exaggerated cases. In the A-share market, we often see companies with negative ROE. In this case, listed companies are losing money, so the net profit (numerator) is negative. In the U.S. stock market, many companies have made their net assets (denominator) negative because of too many repurchases. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid. The following table reports the changes in McDonald's stock repurchases and ROE from fiscal years 2007 to 2021. It can be seen that before 2014, the company's ROE was roughly 35%. Then a large number of repurchases began. In 2015, the ROE reached 63%. After 2016, the company's share capital was negative, making the ROE negative.</p><p>Negative net assets mean that the company is insolvent in traditional textbooks, which is a signal that it is on the verge of bankruptcy. However, in the current US stock market, the stock prices of many such companies continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b35b389852b97d68f11e2f01e54e78b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Stock repurchases will push up stock price yields</b></p><p><b>Stock returns come from Dividend dividends and changes in market value, and changes in market value are affected by profits and valuations. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term investment, stock returns can be decomposed into three parts: dividend repurchase income, stock valuation and corporate profits. Among them, dividend repurchase income occupies a very important position in the total stock return. In the American stock market, dividend repurchase income can even be said to be the main source of income for stock assets. Therefore, stock repurchases will have a significant impact on stock price returns, and we can see that the gap between the total return index and the ordinary index will increase with the repurchase.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bbb8fd064eb67ec1fa8705dca4d95dc\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the investment period of more than 30 years since the beginning of 1989, even after two major crises, the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008, investing in U.S. stocks will still bring very rich returns, among which dividend income occupies a very important position, which is reflected in the gap between the long-term trend of the S&P 500 Total Return Index and the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Total Return Index has been adjusted on the basis of the S&P 500 Index, and the dividends of sample stocks are included in the index income. The cumulative increase of the adjusted S&P 500 Total Return Index is nearly 30 times, while the increase of the S&P 500 Index is only 14.2 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3438f479b888125f194b418925a29206\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Philip U. Straehl et al. (The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal) An in-depth study was conducted on the long-term yield of the U.S. stock market from 1871 to 2014. The study found that, including the Dividend distributed by the company and the income generated by stock repurchases, dividend repurchase income can explain the historical yield of U.S. stocks. vast majority,<b>Especially after the rapid development of stock repurchases in 1970, the impact of repurchases on improving stock price returns was more significant.</b>From 1871 to 2014, the real yield of U.S. stocks (after excluding inflation) was about 7%, of which Dividend's yield was 4.5%. If the income from company repurchases is considered, the total dividend repurchase yield will rise to 4.89%, accounting for more than two-thirds of the real yield of U.S. stocks. The above conclusion is still valid after adjusting the research range of U.S. stocks. From 1901 to 2014, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.58%, of which the part from Dividend's income reached 4.29%. Including the corporate repurchase part, the total dividend repurchase The rate of return reached 4.78%; From 1970 to 2014, the Dividend income generated by U.S. stocks was 3.03%. After taking corporate buybacks into account, this part of the income rose to 4.26%. During the same period, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad0938835357fb43662b8316e408bdd\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 After the repurchase, the stock price-to-book ratio will change significantly compared with the P/E</b></p><p>While share buybacks can boost stock prices, they do not necessarily affect valuations. To be more accurate, stock repurchases will not affect P/E, but will increase the price-to-book ratio. Therefore, after listed companies repurchase shares substantially, we will see significant changes in PB relative to PE.</p><p>The main reason for this difference is that the share repurchase will not affect the company's total market value and net profit, but will lead to a decrease in equity, which will cause the company's price-to-book ratio to increase significantly while the P/E remains unchanged. We assume that Company A has repurchased 20% of its shares at the market price. After the repurchase, the company's total equity will drop from 200 billion yuan to 160 billion yuan. Under the condition that the company's total market value remains unchanged, the price-to-book ratio will increase from the original 1 times to 1.25 times. Since the company's net profit has not been affected, P/E will continue to maintain the level of 4 times before the repurchase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b19d2fc9b3c26a462087305561545\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even from the perspective of the whole market, there is this relationship between P/E and price-to-book ratio. We have standardized the P/E and price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 Index. From the trend point of view, with the substantial increase in the repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index after 2010, the PB increase of the S&P 500 Index is significantly higher than that of PE. Larger, from the beginning of 2010 to April 25, 2022, the PE of the S&P 500 Index has increased from 19 times to 21.3 times, and the PB has increased from 2.0 times to 4.3 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d00d74505bd293d3aabeddec93c61174\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Under the stock repurchase, the company's stock price has increased significantly, but P/E has not been affected. Therefore, we see that the current P/E of the S&P 500 index is 21.3 times, which is 56.9% in the historical quantile since 1991. Far from overvalued. This is because the company's EPS has also increased accordingly, but in fact, for the company's value, the increase in EPS brought about by the reduction of equity capital has not created more value for the company, and to a greater extent, it is only a digital game. It is precisely for this reason that if we look at the price-to-book ratio, the current price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 index is 4.3 times, which has reached the historical quantile of 88.6% since the beginning of 1991.</p><p><b>4. Potential risks of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>4.1 Stock market repurchases may lead to a decline in market liquidity</b></p><p><b>The long-term bull market of U.S. stocks in the past ten years has been the second longest-lasting bull market in the history of U.S. stocks since World War II, but it is the only bull market that has emerged against the background of a significant decline in trading volume.</b>Since 2010, as the index price continues to rise, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index has declined year by year. At the end of March 2022, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index was only 17.4 billion, which has dropped to the level of the late 1990s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/061522652b140a8b126f90d429219659\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>An important reason for the price increase and volume decline of U.S. stocks is that a large number of share repurchases by listed companies have reduced the number of shares in circulation in the market, which will also lead to a decline in market liquidity. Take Apple as an example. Since 2013, the company has continuously increased the scale of stock repurchases, and the current number of outstanding shares in the market is 16.32 billion shares, a decrease of nearly 40% compared with the peak level at the end of 2012.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289a5dc4fdb8aaa08f16cc8f333300d2\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the sharp increase in the scale of passive investment is also an important reason for the sharp decline in U.S. stock trading volume, and U.S. stock repurchases can strengthen the positive feedback logic of passive investment in the bull market and further promote the increase in the scale of passive investment.</b>The repurchase of stocks by listed companies has brought about an increase in stock prices. Since passive investment has the advantages of low fee rates and better medium-and long-term performance in the bull market than active funds, investors have bought passive funds one after another, and the increased funds have flowed into index constituent stocks, superimposed on listed companies. The company continues to buy back stocks, further pushing the stock index up and increasing the scale of capital inflows into passive investment. This positive feedback model has continued in the U.S. stock market over the past decade, so we have seen that the asset size of ETFs in the U.S. stock market has increased significantly since 2009.</p><p><b>In the case of a sharp decline in liquidity, once the upward trend of the index is reversed, the positive feedback mechanism of passive investment will also be reversed immediately, which will contribute to the decline of the market. Such a large-scale gushing of funds can easily cause a stampede, and there is a high probability that it will bring very serious consequences.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04884a97efb5559e375ab06921927940\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.2 Repurchases prompt listed companies to use financial leverage to the extreme</b></p><p>Repurchase itself can be regarded as a kind of dividend policy of the company. The change in recent years is that the method of \"bond issuance and repurchase\" is favored by more and more companies, which makes listed companies use financial leverage to the extreme.</p><p>Many listed companies have repurchased a large number of shares, making their net assets negative and their asset-liability ratio rise to more than 100%, forming an insolvency situation in corporate financial management in the traditional sense. McDonald's, which was cited earlier when introducing the financial principles involved in repurchases, is an example. The company's asset-liability ratio was only 63% in 2014, and reached a maximum of 119% in 2018. In recent years, it still exceeds 100%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7204db63d2dfbd643ab86e4b40f7980\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Starbucks is another example. In 2017, the asset-liability ratio was only 62%, reached a maximum of 132% in 2019, and it will still be 117% in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93949197cb727b87db6cec84808a0901\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The debt leverage ratio of listed companies in the United States is ridiculously high, and financial leverage is used to the extreme. Take the S&P 500 constituent stocks in the table below as an example. The 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratios all have asset-liability ratios exceeding 90%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a3ce4721d3e0185ce386b5657c76cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"988\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Financial leverage and asset-liability ratio are important indicators to measure financial risks, and also important reference factors in corporate credit rating system. The increase of corporate financial leverage and asset-liability ratio will inevitably lead to the increase of financial risks, and will inevitably affect the credit rating of enterprises.</p><p>We have compiled statistics on the current credit ratings of the main companies constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index in the United States. The data shows that more than 80% of the corporate entities in the S&P 500 Index constituent stocks have investment grade credit ratings, and more than 10% of corporate investment entities have speculative credit ratings. In addition, it is worth noting that among the current investment-grade main companies, the credit rating of most companies is the lowest level of investment-grade, that is, Baa, which means that in the case of large fluctuations in the external economic environment, most companies may face the risk of lowering their credit rating from investment grade to speculative grade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c25dff19b1c181a4f5a0e5ed1182387\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e45b03dcf8e324c10f228abce824fe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the sample range of companies is narrowed to the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks, we can see that the proportion of companies with speculative credit ratings has increased significantly.</b>Under Moody's classification rating, among these 50 companies, the number of speculative-grade companies accounts for 23.3%, and under the S&P rating classification it is 36.2%, both of which are significantly higher than the proportion of corresponding classifications under all S&P 500 constituent stocks. Similarly, among investment-grade entity companies, Baa (Moody's's lowest investment-grade rating) or BBB (Standard & Poor's lowest investment-grade rating) accounts for an overwhelming proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba608d69d552164772f0c78db122613c\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1825ece9b330eff6989d428d65b10aeb\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The impact of large-scale bond repurchase on corporate credit rating is significant. In 2015, the Moody's credit rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds dropped by two consecutive levels, mainly because it planned to increase the issuance of Dividend and stock repurchases through bond issuance. In May 2015, Moody's downgraded the rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds from A2 to A3. Part of the reason for this downgrade is that McDonald's plans to accelerate the return of $8 billion to $9 billion to shareholders through dividend distribution and stock buybacks. Moody's believes that McDonald's guidance to accelerate stock buybacks and distribute high Dividend is a manifestation of its aggressive financial policy, which will lead to a sharp increase in debt levels. In November 2015, Moody's downgraded McDonald's corporate credit rating to Baa1 again as McDonald's announced that it would increase the amount returned to shareholders through bond issuance.</p><p>In addition, in 2015, Standard & Poor's downgraded McDonald's rating twice, and McDonald's long-term issuer credit rating dropped from A to A-and then to BBB +. In the same year, Fitch Ratings directly downgraded McDonald's long-term issuer default rating from A to BBB +, and again to BBB in 2016.</p><p>The same is true of Starbucks. In November 2017, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to A3. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks planned to return $15 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases from 2018 to 2020, and part of the returned funds would come from additional debt. Moody's believes that this will lead to a significant increase in debt levels and a substantial deterioration in credit indicators, so it downgraded Starbucks' corporate bond rating. In June 2018, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to Baa1 again. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks decided to significantly increase debt to increase the amount returned to shareholders to $25 billion. Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings also downgraded their corporate ratings after Starbucks decided to issue bonds to repurchase shares, and Starbucks' rating dropped from A to BBB +.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0625be465abe14191484b6704a99229\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the high debt leverage ratio itself is not a sufficient condition for the stock price to fall, but it does also lay the hidden danger of corporate debt default. Especially in the Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, the credit risk caused by high financial leverage is continuing to rise.</b></p><p><b>5. The experience of U.S. stock repurchase on A-shares</b></p><p>Compared with the U.S. stock market, the current scale of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies is still at an extremely low level. As of April 26, 2022, in fiscal year 2021, the total amount used by U.S. listed companies to repurchase common shares and preferred shares reached 7.37 trillion yuan, while the amount of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies during the same period was only 121.1 billion yuan, less than 2% of U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18608cdb64ca03bda791eb503fb57cdb\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, from the trend point of view, after the release of the new regulations on stock repurchase in 2018, the enthusiasm of A-share listed companies for repurchases has increased significantly, and the scale of repurchases has expanded significantly. In the whole year of 2012, only 11 A-share listed companies conducted share repurchases, with a total repurchase amount of 2.5 billion yuan; For the whole year of 2021, the number of listed companies conducting A-share stock repurchases has risen to 994, and the cumulative repurchase amount for the whole year has reached 121.1 billion yuan.</p><p>In the article \"Enlightenment from Previous A-share Repurchase Booms\", we review the performance of listed companies in previous A-share repurchase booms, and found that 1) undervalued companies had obvious excess returns after the release of the repurchase plan; 2) The proportion of the company's repurchase amount to the total market value is positively correlated with excess returns; 3) Company repurchases have a long-term supporting effect on stock prices.</p><p>Therefore, whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support the stock price to a certain extent or even push the stock price up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies. On the one hand, we believe that as A-share listed companies conduct more corporate repurchases in the future, there is still potential room for the company's stock price to rise. On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, there has been a new round of stock market repurchase boom in the market. As of April 15th, the amount of repurchases implemented by listed companies during the year was about 27.2 billion yuan, and the number of companies that have implemented repurchases during the year exceeded 400. More and more listed companies' repurchases also highlight their confidence in the future market to a certain extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4606ec8bf026e232ce9427bc25c625f\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(All individual stock information involved in this report is only a summary of public information, and does not constitute any profit forecast and investment rating)</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Fj9F_K7nZiupMDGYFkVz0Q\">追寻价值之路</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Fj9F_K7nZiupMDGYFkVz0Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116937204","content_text":"不论是从理论上来看,还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看,股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下,股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。核心结论股票回购最早起源于美国资本市场,经过多年发展后目前已经成为资本市场一种常用的手段,特别是最近十年里,美国上市公司回购规模大幅飙升。本文借鉴美股市场的经验,对股票回购的相关问题进行了讨论和梳理,主要内容分为五个部分:第一部分介绍了股票回购的基本概念,包括回购常见的四种方式以及股票回购的动因;第二部分讨论了股票回购的相关财务处理问题,涉及回购后是否选择注销股份的财务处理以及部分企业回购后为什么会出现净资产为负值的情况;第三部分梳理了股票回购有利于股价上涨的逻辑,一是直接增加公司股票的需求,二是通过提高上市公司EPS和整体的ROE等财务指标,此外,从美股的表现来看,股票回购是股价收益率的重要组成部分,回购对市净率的影响要比市盈率更加显著;第四部分探讨了股票回购的潜在风险,主要包括市场流动性下降以及回购导致的上市公司高财务杠杆风险;第五部分是A股目前的回购情况介绍以及美股回购对A股的经验借鉴。风险提示:回购增加财务杠杆风险、历史经验不代表未来、宏观经济不及预期、海外市场大幅波动报告正文1,股票回购的基本概念介绍1.1 什么是股票回购?股票回购指的是上市公司利用现金等方式,从股票市场上回购本公司发行在外一定数额的股票的行为,这将减少企业流通在外的股票数量,从而达到市值管理、股权激励、稳定股价等积极作用。企业回购股票的资金来源主要有两个:一是内部资金,包括企业日常经营获得的净利润或者政府减税、返税等现金来源,以及企业原有的留存收益等自有资金;二是外部资金,通过发债等方式借钱加杠杆实现股份回购。股票回购最早起源于美国资本市场,特别是在上世纪80年代之后得到了快速发展。此前由于西方欧美等国家提倡保持公司资本的理论,同时回购行为本身存在着市场操纵的嫌疑,很少有公司进行股票回购,直至20世纪80年代,股票回购才开始逐渐发展。在经过了超过40年的发展后,目前股票回购已经成为发达资本市场一种常用的手段,被广泛运用于优化资本结构、提升公司价值,或者是在公司股价被低估时传递积极信号。1.2 股票回购常见的四种方式根据回购价格确定方式的不同,股票回购一般可以分为公开市场操作、现金要约回购、协议回购和可转让出售权回购四种基本方式。公开市场回购是当前美国市场中较为流行的一种股票回购方式,通过公开市场回购股票的上市公司将直接在公开市场上按照当前市场价格进行股票回购。在该方式下的股票回购较为灵活,上市公司能够根据自身情况,自由决定回购的时间、回购的数量等因素,而且在这一方式下进行的股票回购不需要支付额外的溢价。另一种较为普遍的股票回购方式是要约回购。上市公司通过要约回购股票的定价方式一般有两种,一是使用固定价格在约定期限内向股东发出要约以购买一定数量的股票,上市公司一般是在短期内需要大量公司股票的情况下选择该种定价方式,但短期内需求的大幅升高会导致回购股票需要支付一定的溢价。要约回购下的另一种定价方式是荷兰式拍卖回购,此种方式将在回购价格方面给予公司更大的灵活性,因此也被广泛采用。在荷兰式拍卖回购中,上市公司制定回购价格的范围和计划回购的数量,随后股东表示在价格区间范围内某一水平下愿意出售的股票数量,最后上市公司将汇总所有股东意愿并按照从低到高价格排序进行股票回购,直至达到上市公司既定的回购数量。与公开市场回购和要约回购相比,协议回购的透明度较低。因为在协议回购方式下,上市公司直接与部分股东进行私下协议,按照协议商定的价格和数量进行股票回购。这种方式在定价、交易时间以及支付方式等方面均较为自由,而且通常来看协议价低于市场价。可转让出售权回购是一种特殊的股票回购的方式,实施股票回购的公司给予股东在一定期限内可以以特定价格向公司出售其股票的权利,而且该权利一旦形成,就可以同依附的股票分离并进行交易。上市公司向其股东发行可转让出授权,不愿意出售股票的股东可以单独出售该权利,以满足各类股东的不同诉求。1.3 为什么要进行股票回购?股份回购能够带来的好处是多方面的。从公司整体来看,不论是使用内部还是外部资金回购股份均可以改善企业的资本结构、并减少对公司管理层的监督及约束成本,使用发债回购股份的方式还能够利用负债的税盾效应实现合理避税,并促使管理层专注于企业的债务偿还以及长期可持续经营。而对于那些在股票回购计划中卖出股票的股东来说,他们可以卖出股票获得流动性,此外与直接派发现金股息相比,由于资本所得一般不征税或税率较低,通过股票回购派发股利的方式能够实现有效的避税。在企业实行回购计划后仍然持有股票的股东同样也能够受益。由于完成股票回购后企业的净资本将明显减少,在其他条件不变的情况下,企业的净资产收益率、每股盈利、以及每股净资产等财务指标都将出现显著的提升。对上市公司股票回购的动机进行分类的话,我们也可以归为以下四个类别,一是财务动因,二是信号传递诉求,三是减少委托代理风险,四是增加公司控制权防止恶意收购。上市公司进行股票回购的财务动因主要与其资本结构以及股利政策相关,上市公司往往出于提高每股盈利、改善资本结构以及增加股东财富效应等与财务相关的原因进行股票回购。具体来看,股票回购对上市公司财务相关因素的改善主要体现在四个方面:第一,提升公司每股盈利。由于回购会减少上市公司在外流通股数量,因此在计算每股盈利时由于分母的减少,将直接带来EPS的上升,这或许也将提高公司股价。第二,实现股利避税,增加上市公司的股东财富。由于现金股利的税率高于资本利得税税率,通过采用股票回购而不是发放股利的方式对股东现金返还能够帮助股东实现合理避税。在中国,个人投资者持股期限在一个月以内的股息红利所得全额计入应纳税所得额,实际税负为20%,但资本利得暂免征收所得税。第三,优化公司资本结构,通过税盾效应提高公司价值。不论以何种方式进行股票回购,都将降低公司的所有者权益,而发债回购甚至还会增加公司的债务,从而提高公司的财务杠杆率,产生杠杆效应。因此对于财务杠杆较低的公司来说,这不仅能够优化公司的资本结构,还能够利用融资利息带来的税盾效应实现公司价值的提升。第四,股票回购具有较高的财务灵活性。上市公司向股东返还现金的方式一般有发放现金股利和股票回购两种方式,但发放现金股利的方式通常会使股东对未来股利形成预期,这就要求公司需要有稳定的现金流。而股票回购是偶尔发生的,上市公司在股票回购方式下能够相对自由地选择回购的金额、数量、时间等,相比于股票回购方式具有很大的财务灵活性。股票回购的信号传递诉求主要是基于信息不对称假设,上市公司通过股票回购能够向市场传递公司股价被低估的信号,因为只有在公司认为自己股票价格被低估的情况下才会进行股票回购。通过这种方式向市场传递积极信号,对公司的短期经营收益具有正面的影响。股票回购还有助于减少委托代理风险。由于上市公司的管理权和所有权分离,而代理人和委托人目标并不完全一致,可能存在委托人无法清楚认识代理人的目标偏失,进而造成委托人利益受损的情况。特别是在公司自由现金流较为充裕的情况,公司管理层可能会出于自身利益而进行过度投资或消费,从而侵占公司股东的利益。这种情况下,公司通过股票回购将现金返还给股东,既提高了现金流的使用效率也能够降低代理成本,减少委托代理风险。通过股票回购增加控制权、防止股权稀释以及恶意收购也是上市公司股票回购的动机之一。上世纪80年代随着美国杠杆并购浪潮的兴起,恶意收购活动也逐渐增加。为了防止公司被恶意收购,上市公司纷纷通过回购股票来达到提高股价、减少在外流通股、抵御敌意收购的目的。虽然现在恶意收购的情况有所减少,但将回购的股票用于管理层的股权激励计划也有助于避免股权稀释。2,股票回购的财务处理问题2.1 股票回购后注销与否的区别对于上市公司来说,在股票回购完成后公司可以将所回购的股票注销,也可以将回购的股票作为“库存股”保留。被公司保留的“库存股”仍然属于已发行的股票,由公司自己持有,并且可以在适当的时间再向市场出售、发行可转债或者作为对员工的激励等。但“库存股”的特性类似于未发行的股票,“库存股”没有投票权,也不具备分红的权利,甚至在公司破产后也不能变现,因此,“库存股”也不参与每股收益、净资产收益率以及每股净资产等指标的计算。所以在股票回购完成后,不论有没有注销所回购的股票,都不会影响每股收益、每股净资产以及净资产收益率等财务指标,因为即使作为“库存股”保留,这些股票也不会参与这些指标的计算。从这个角度来看,对公司来说,注销和不注销所回购的股票并不会存在较大的差异。但在多数情况下,企业回购股票完成后都会选择将回购的股票作为“库存股”保留。我们统计了标普500成分股中资产负债率最高的50家公司股票回购后的处理情况,其中有30家上市公司选择了回购股票并保留了“库存股”,另外20家上市公司选择注销所回购的股票或未进行股票回购。企业之所以倾向于保留“库存股”,主要是因为“库存股”本身能够为企业带来一定的积极意义。一是在融资方面能够为公司提供充足的灵活性,降低融资成本。由于“库存股”仍然属于已发行的股票,公司在存在融资需求时可以出售“库存股”;与配股或者增发新股相比,出售“库存股”获得资金的成本更低,不仅能够节省发行股票相关的监管及中介成本费用,并且可以在市场允许的情况下避免折价发售。二是有利于员工或管理层激励计划等的实施。“库存股”是企业向员工及管理层发放股权激励的重要的股票来源之一,因此对于美股上市公司来说,保留“库存股”能够为其实施股权激励计划等提供便利,避免因缺乏足够的股份来源导致激励计划无法实施的情况。三是为公司并购活动提供便利、防止公司遭受敌意收购。通过库存股换股的方式进行兼并收购能够为公司的并购行为提供一定的灵活性;此外,回购后保留“库存股”行为也能防止公司被恶意收购,一方面回购推升股价导致收购方难度增加,另一方面,“库存股”能够补充公司在外流通的股份数量,为公司应对恶意收购提供缓冲时间。四是有利于股票价格的稳定。当市场出现了非理性的波动时,企业可以通过调节在外流通股票的供给来平抑价格的波动,稳定股价,避免公司因为市场情绪等非理性因素受到较大的影响。2.2 回购如何导致企业净资产为负?股票回购能够带来的好处中,非常重要的一条是,回购股票能够提高EPS和公司整体的ROE,这主要是因为回购股票会减少企业的净资本,分母的明显下降会带来包括EPS以及ROE在内的显著提升。在更为夸张的情况下,部分美股上市公司采取了发债回购的形式回购大量的已发行股份,造成负债总额大于资产总额、而净资产为负值的情况。在这种情况下,ROE、PB这些传统指标全部失效。那么美国的这些上市公司是如何通过回购使得净资产为负的呢?这背后最主要的原因还是在于财务报表中权益资产账面价值与二级市场中股票市值存在着巨大的差异,二级市场上的股票价格并不会在资产负债表里得到反映,所以股票的账面价值和市场价值是不对等的。企业在进行回购时,主要参考的是股票的市场价值,因此回购股票的成本往往会相对账面价值存在溢价。因此不论是回购后转入库存股、在计算股东权益时作为抵减项,又或是回购后注销时冲减留存收益科目,只要回购股票成本的溢价过大,就会可能导致留存收益科目转负,甚至导致公司整体的净资产也呈现出负值。以星巴克公司为例。星巴克公布的2019财年(从2018年9月30日至2019年9月30日)年度报告中,企业总资产从2018财年的241.6亿美元下降至192.2亿美元,但总负债却从2018财年的229.8亿美元上升至254.5亿美元,这意味着星巴克公司净资产即所有者权益从2018财年的11.8亿美元下降至2019财年的-62.3亿美元。从星巴克公司资产负债表中的股东权益细分科目的情况来看,2019年公司净资产小于0主要的原因是留存收益科目出现了大幅的下降,2018财年星巴克留存收益尚有接近15亿美元的余额,但到了2019财年末,留存收益大幅下降至-57.7亿美元,这直接导致了星巴克的股东权益大幅转负,此后公司的留存收益科目一直维持负值状态。而留存收益为负值的主要原因在于股票回购。以2019财年留存收益首次转负为例,在2019财年期内,星巴克公司进行了大量的股票回购,在外发行的股本数量由2018财年的13.1亿股下降至11.8亿股,总股本减少了10万美元,资本公积减少了6.1亿美元,企业回购股票的溢价部分则冲减了高达95.2亿美元的留存收益。从所有者权益变动情况来看,2019财年星巴克留存收益的增减主要是受到会计政策变更、净利润、股票回购以及现金分红的影响。如果不考虑股票回购的影响,会计政策变更及净利润分别使得留存收益增加4.96亿和35.99亿美元,即使是进行了18亿美元的现金分红,星巴克2019财年的留存收益仍然会较期初有所增加。但在股票回购的影响下,星巴克2019财年的留存收益不仅没有增加,反而大幅减少,甚至出现了大额负值,最终使得净资产小于0。对于回购股票后转入库存股的财务处理,我们可以参考麦当劳公司的案例。早在2016财年,麦当劳公司的净资产便已经小于0;此后,麦当劳仍在不断地发债回购流通股并转入库存股票,导致企业净资产持续下降。截至2019财年末(2019年12月31日),麦当劳公司总资产由上期末的328亿美元上升至475亿美元,同时总负债也由391亿美元大幅上升至557亿美元,因此,麦当劳公司的股东权益从2018年底的-63亿美元下降至了-82亿美元,降至了历史最低。2020及2021财年公司股东权益虽然有所回升,但仍然维持负值。从股东权益的细分项来看,2019年麦当劳公司股东权益持续下降的主要是因为库存股的成本在持续上升。影响股东权益的资本公积、留存收益以及其他综合收益科目2019财年的数值都较2018财年有所上升,股本科目维持不变,仅有备抵项库存股从2018财年的-615亿美元下降至-663亿美元(这意味着购买库存股的成本从615亿美元上升至663亿美元),并导致股东权益明显下降。2020及2021财年虽然库存股成本还在持续上升,但由于资本公积及留存收益科目都有显著增加,因此股东权益整体小幅回升。根据所有者权益变动表的情况来看,2019财年,麦当劳公司持续回购了2500万的股票,总的回购成本达到了49.8亿美元;同时使用了420万股库存股完成了股票行权认购计划,转出库存股金额1.8亿美元。因此,截至2019财年末,麦当劳公司回购库存股数量共计9.14亿股,累计回购库存股的总成本从615亿美元上升至663亿美元,并导致股东权益持续下降至-82亿美元。3,股票回购有利于推动股价上涨3.1 回购推动股票价格上涨的主要逻辑回购促进股票价格上涨的机制主要有两个,一是上市公司通过回购股票能够直接增加公司股票的需求来提高股价,这也是股票回购产生影响的一个最直接渠道。事实上,自2008年金融危机以来,上市公司本身便是美股市场中一个非常重要的参与者。根据美联储统计的数据,2009年至2021年期间,权益市场的主要参与者中,ETF基金累计净购买了2.77万亿美元的股票,美国家庭及非营利机构累计净购买了1.17万亿美元,而共同基金以及其他金融机构分别累计净出售了901亿美元和2.27万亿美元的权益资产。非金融企业因回购股票而交易的金额在过去十年里出现了大幅飙升,仅该部分累计交易的金额便达到了近5万亿美元的水平。我们可以假设公司A将回购20%的股份,并模拟其实施股票回购前后的股票价格表现来研究回购的影响。根据财务估值模型,公司市值取决于未来产生的现金流或者净利润等指标,因此股票回购的行为将不会影响公司的总市值。我们假设回购前公司A有200亿股流通股,每股价值10元,总市值为2000亿元;本次A公司将回购20%的股份,回购后还有160亿份股流通在外,由于总市值维持不变为2000亿元,因此每股股票价格将上升至12.5元,即与回购前相比,股价上升了25%。回购推动股价上涨的第二个机制是通过提高上市公司EPS和整体的ROE等财务指标。由于公司A的回购行为不会导致公司净利润出现变化,回购前后净利润均为500亿元,因此在回购后,A公司的EPS将由2.5元上升至3.125元,提升幅度为25%。从股市整体来看也是如此,历史数据显示,标普500指数EPS的走势与标普500指数回购规模的走势保持高度的一致性。从走势来看,2000年以来标普500指数EPS与回购规模的走势大致经历了三个阶段,2000年至2007年,指数EPS缓慢提升,公司回购的规模也在不断提升,指数回购减少的股本数量在持续上升。2008年金融危机时期,EPS出现了大幅下降,公司回购也出现了断崖式的下跌。随着美国经济逐渐恢复,2010年开始标普500指数EPS和回购金额都再次趋势上升,2020年新冠疫情期间两者同步出现了短暂的下降。ROE作为投研体系中重要的财务指标,在公司进行股票回购后也会出现明显提升。以苹果公司为例,其上市公司股票回购在2012年以前基本是没有的,2013年是个转折点,然后回购金额开始大幅飙升。如果单看净利润增速,苹果公司2012财年是417亿美元,2021财年是947亿美元,净利润的年化复合增速只有9.5%。这个增速放到A股市场,完全看不出是一个高科技公司,更像是一个公用事业公司。但通过大量的股票回购,苹果公司的ROE从2013年的30%左右提高到了2021年的150%。到2021财年,苹果公司回购普通股的金额高达860亿美元,几乎可以抵上当年的净利润。股票回购不仅会提升上市公司的ROE,在更为夸张的情况下,甚至会使得公司的ROE转为负值。在A股市场中我们也经常看到ROE为负的公司,这种情况都是上市公司是亏损的,所以净利润(分子)是负的。而美股市场中,有不少公司,是因为回购多了,把净资产(分母)弄成了负的了。这种情况下,ROE、PB这些传统指标全部失效。下面这个表报告了麦当劳公司从2007至2021财年股票回购与ROE变化情况,可以开看到,在2014年以前,公司的ROE大致在35%左右。然后开始了大量回购,2015年ROE到了63%,2016年以后公司的股本为负,使得ROE都是负的了。净资产为负,这在传统意义的教科书上,意味着企业资不抵债,是一个濒临破产的信号,但在当前的美股市场中,很多这类的公司股价却在持续上涨。3.2 股票回购将会推升股价收益率股票收益来自于股息红利和市值变动,市值变动又受到盈利和估值的影响,所以从长期投资的角度来看,股票收益率可以分解为股利回购收益、股票估值和企业盈利这三个部分的影响,其中,股利回购收益在股票总回报中占据着非常重要的地位,在美国的股票市场,股利回购收益甚至可以说是股票资产主要的收益来源。因此,股票回购会对股价收益率产生明显的影响,我们能看到全收益指数和普通指数的缺口会随着回购而增大。自1989年初至今超过30年的投资期内,即使经历了2000年互联网泡沫和2008年金融危机这两次重大的危机,投资美股仍然会带来十分丰厚的回报,而其中,股利收益占据了非常重要的地位,这一点体现在标普500全收益指数和标普500指数长期走势的差距中。标普500全收益指数在标普500指数的基础上进行了调整,将样本股分红计入了指数收益,调整后的标普500全收益指数累计涨幅是接近30倍,而标普500指数涨幅仅为14.2倍。Philip U. Straehl等人(The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal)对1871-2014年期间美国股市长期收益率进行了深入的研究,研究发现,包含公司派发的股息以及回购股票产生的收益在内,股利回购收益能够解释美国股票历史收益率的绝大部分,特别是在1970年股票回购得到快速发展之后,回购对提升股价收益率的影响更为显著。1871年至2014年期间,美股实际收益率(剔除通胀后)约为7%,其中,股息收益率为4.5%,如果考虑公司回购带来的收益,总的股利回购收益率将上升至4.89%,占美股实际收益率的三分之二以上。上述结论在调整美股的研究区间后仍然成立,1901年至2014年期间,美股实际收益率为6.58%,其中来自于股息收益的部分达到了4.29%,加上企业回购部分,总的股利回购收益率达到4.78%;1970年至2014年期间,美股产生的股息收益为3.03%,将企业回购纳入考虑后这一部分收益上升至4.26%,同期美股实际收益率为6.25%。3.3 回购后股票市净率将较市盈率出现显著变化虽然股票回购能够促进股票价格上涨,但并不一定会影响估值。更为准确的说法是,股票回购不会影响市盈率,但是会提高市净率,所以在上市公司大幅回购股票后,我们会看到PB相对于PE出现明显变化。之所以出现这种差异,主要是在于股份回购不会影响公司总市值以及净利润,但是会导致权益减少,这会使得公司在市盈率维持不变的情况下市净率出现明显的上升。我们假设公司A按照市价回购了20%的股份,回购后公司总权益将由2000亿元下降至1600亿元,在公司总市值维持不变的情况下,市净率将由原先的1倍上升至1.25倍,而由于公司净利润未受到影响,市盈率将继续维持在回购前4倍的水平。即使从整个市场角度来看,市盈率和市净率也存在这个关系。我们对标普500指数的市盈率与市净率进行了标准化,从走势来看,随着2010年后标普500指数回购金额的大幅提升,标普500指数的PB上升幅度要明显比PE更大,从2010年初到2022年4月 25日 ,标普500指数的PE大概从19倍上升到了21.3倍,PB从2.0倍上升到了4.3倍。在股票回购下,公司股价出现大幅提升,但市盈率却并未受到影响,所以我们看到目前标普500指数的市盈率为21.3倍,在1991年以来56.9%的历史分位数,远远谈不上高估。这是因为公司的EPS也出现了相应的提升,但事实上,对于公司价值来说,通过股本减少带来的EPS提升并没有为公司创造更多的价值,更大程度上只是数字上的游戏。也正是因为这个原因,如果我们从市净率来看,当前标普500指数市净率为4.3倍,已经达到1991年年初以来88.6%的历史分位点了。4,股票回购的潜在风险4.1 股市回购或将导致市场流动性下降美股过去的十年长牛是二战以来美股历史上持续时间第二长的大牛市,但是却是唯一一次在成交量明显下降背景下走出的牛市行情。从2010年开始,随着指数价格的持续上涨,标普500指数的成交量却逐年下降,2022年3月底标普500指数的成交量仅174亿,已经降至了上世纪90年代末的水平。导致美股出现价升量跌情况的一个重要原因是,上市公司大量回购股票使得市场上的流通股份数越来越少,这也会造成市场流动性的下降。以苹果公司为例,由于2013年以来公司不断加大回购股票的规模,当前市场上流通股数量为163.2亿股,相较于2012年底的峰值水平下降了近40%。当然,被动投资规模的大幅上升也是造成美股成交量大幅下降的重要原因,而美股回购能够强化牛市中被动投资的正反馈逻辑,进一步促进被动投资规模的提升。上市公司回购股票带来股价上升,由于被动投资具有低费率、牛市中长期业绩好于主动型基金等优势,投资者纷纷买入被动型基金,增加的资金流入指数成分股,叠加上市公司持续回购股票,进一步推动股指上涨,资金流入被动投资的规模加大。这一正向反馈模式在过去十年的美股市场中不断持续,所以我们看到,2009年后美股市场中ETF的资产规模出现了大幅提升。而在流动性大幅衰减的情况下,指数上涨的趋势一旦出现了扭转,被动投资的正反馈机制也将立即反转,对市场的下跌形成推波助澜之势。如此大规模资金的涌出很容易造成踩踏事件,大概率将带来非常严重的后果。4.2 回购促使上市公司将财务杠杆用到极致回购本身可以算是公司股利政策的一种,最近几年的变化在于,“发债回购”的方式受到越来越多公司的青睐,这使得上市公司把财务杠杆用到了极致。很多上市公司通过大量回购股份,使得净资产转负、资产负债率上升至100%以上,形成了传统意义上企业财务管理的资不抵债局面。在前面介绍回购涉及的财务原理时举的麦当劳公司是一个例子,公司资产负债率2014年时还只有63%,2018年最高到了119%,近几年仍然超过100%。星巴克公司是另一个例子,2017年时资产负债率还只有62%,2019年最高到了132%,2021年仍有117%。美国上市公司债务杠杆率高得离谱,财务杠杆都用到了极致。仅以下表的标普500成分股为例,资产负债率最高的50家公司,资产负债率都超过了90%。财务杠杆与资产负债率是衡量财务风险的重要指标,也是企业信用评级体系中重要的参考因素。企业财务杠杆与资产负债率的上升必然会带来财务风险的上升,也势必影响企业的信用评级。我们统计了当前美国标普500指数成分股主体公司目前的信用评级情况。数据显示,标普500指数成分股中约八成以上的公司主体信用评级为投资级,有超过10%的企业投资主体信用评级为投机级。此外,值得注意的是,当前投资级主体公司中,绝大部分企业的信用评级是投资级的最低等级,即Baa级,这意味着在外部经济环境出现大幅波动的情况下,大部分企业或许将面临信用评级从投资级降至投机级的风险。如果将公司样本范围缩小至标普500成分股中资产负债率最高的50家公司,可以看到公司信用评级为投机级的数量占比明显上升。穆迪分类评级下,这50家公司中,投机级企业数量占比为23.3%,标普评级分类下为36.2%,均要明显高于全部标普500成分股下的相应分类占比。而同样,在投资级主体公司中,Baa(穆迪投资级最低评级)或者BBB(标普投资级最低评级)占据了绝大的比例。大幅发债回购对企业信用评级的影响是显著的。2015年麦当劳的高级无担保债券穆迪信用评级连续下降两级,主要就是因为其计划通过发债加大发放股息以及股票回购的力度。2015年5月穆迪将麦当劳公司高级无担保债券评级从A2下调至A3,促成此次评级下调的部分原因在于麦当劳计划通过分发股利以及股票回购加速向股东返还80亿至90亿美元。穆迪认为,麦当劳加速股票回购以及高额派发股息的指引是其采取激进财务政策的体现,这将导致债务水平大幅上升。2015年11月,由于麦当劳公司宣布将通过发债提高向股东返还的金额,穆迪再次下调麦当劳企业信用评级至Baa1。此外,2015年标普公司两次下调麦当劳评级,麦当劳长期发行人信用评级从A级下降至A-再降至BBB+级,同年惠誉评级公司将麦当劳长期发行人违约评级从A级直接下调至BBB+级,并在2016年再次下调至BBB级别。星巴克公司的经历也同样如此。2017年11月,穆迪下调星巴克高级无担保债券评级至A3级,下调原因是因为星巴克计划在2018至2020年通过分红和股份回购的方式向股东返还150亿美元,返还的资金部分将来源于额外的债务。穆迪认为这将导致债务水平显著上升以及信用指标的实质性恶化,因此下调星巴克公司债券评级。2018年6月,穆迪再次下调星巴克高级无担保债券评级至Baa1级,下调原因在于星巴克决定大幅增加债务以将返还股东金额提高至250亿美元。标普与惠誉评级公司在星巴克公司决定发债回购股份后,同样下调企业评级,星巴克评级从A级下降至BBB+级。当然,债务杠杆率高本身并不是股价下跌的充分条件,但确实也埋下了企业债务违约的隐患,特别是在美联储加息周期中,高财务杠杆带来的信用风险正在持续上升。5,美股回购对A股的经验借鉴和美股市场相比,当前A股上市公司股票回购的规模仍然属于极低水平。截至2022年4月26日,2021财年,美股上市公司用于回购普通股和优先股的金额共计达到了7.37万亿人民币,而同期A股上市公司股票回购金额仅为1211亿元,不足美股的2%。不过从趋势上来看,2018年股票回购新规发布后,A股上市公司回购积极性明显提升,回购规模大幅扩张。2012年全年,A股仅有11家上市公司进行了股票回购,回购金额累计25亿元;2021年全年,A股进行股票回购的上市公司数量已经上升至了994家,全年累计回购金额达到了1211亿元。我们在《A股历次回购热潮的启示》一文中复盘了A股历次回购热潮中上市公司的表现,发现1)低估值公司在回购预案发布后超额收益明显;2)公司回购金额占总市值比例与超额收益正相关;3)公司回购对股价长期存在支撑作用。因此不论是从理论上来看,还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看,股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下,股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。一方面,我们认为,随着未来A股上市公司进行更多的企业回购,公司股价上涨还有潜在空间。另一方面,今年年初以来市场兴起了新一轮股市回购热潮,截至4月15日,上市公司年内已实施的回购金额约272亿元,年内已实施回购的公司数量逾400家,越来越多的上市公司回购一定程度上也凸显了对未来市场的信心。(本报告中所有涉及的个股信息,仅为公开信息汇总,不构成任何盈利预测和投资评级)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088764110,"gmtCreate":1650384532068,"gmtModify":1676534710930,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567665939928011","authorIdStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088764110","repostId":"1111589482","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080707107,"gmtCreate":1649913021942,"gmtModify":1676534606111,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567665939928011","authorIdStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080707107","repostId":"2225584750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2225584750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649855844,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225584750?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-13 21:17","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | Buffett's 40 sentences are highly recommended by Duan Yongping","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225584750","media":"正和岛","summary":"巴菲特说,不管一家公司是大盘、小盘、中盘、还是超小盘,我们只考虑这么几点:这家公司的生意我们能不能看懂?这家公司的管理层我们喜不喜欢?这家公司的价格是否便宜?1998年,巴菲特在佛罗里达大学商学院做了","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Buffett said that no matter whether a company is large-cap, small-cap, mid-cap, or ultra-small-cap, we only consider the following points: Can we understand the business of this company? Do we like the management of this company? Is this company cheap?</b>In 1998, Buffett gave a super connotative speech at the University of Florida Business School. This speech was later called the most classic speech in Buffett's life, without exception.<b>Duan Yongping strongly recommends the content of this speech, which is said to have been read 10 times.</b></p><p>Please be tricky when asking questions. The more difficult the questions you ask, the more fun it will be. \"</p><p>It is worth mentioning that during the nearly one-and-a-half-hour speech, Buffett himself did not make a long speech, but gave most of the time to the students at the scene, asking them to raise the issues they were most concerned about.</p><p>\"What kind of company do you like?\"</p><p>\"How much should I spend to buy a company?\"</p><p>\"Can you tell us something about your mistakes in business?\"</p><p>The sharp questions did not stump the \"stock god\". He not only answered the students' questions humorously, but also used the questions to deeply analyze his stock selection criteria, portfolio construction and way of thinking.</p><p><b>Huang Zheng said before, \"I found that what Buffett said is actually so simple that even my mother can understand it. Common sense is obvious and easy to understand, but we are blinded by the prejudice formed by growth and learning and the demands of personal interests.\"</b></p><p>As Huang Zheng said, Buffett is extremely good at telling everyone important investment philosophies with very easy-to-understand metaphors. This was the case twenty years ago. Vivid cases and visual expressions made this speech a classics. The classics among classics are still very enlightening when revisited today.</p><p>The original text of the speech is long,<b>We have compiled 40 highlights and compiled them into an article.</b>It involves investment philosophy, business judgment and hopes for young people. I believe it will inspire you after reading it.</p><p>01</p><p>Don't do anything outside the margin of safety</p><p>01. Suppose you hand me a gun with 1,000 magazines, 1 million magazines, and only one magazine has a bullet in it. You say, \"Point the gun at your temple and pull the trigger. How much do you want?\" I quit. I won't do it no matter how much money you give me.</p><p>If I win, I don't need the money; If I lose, the result will be needless to say. I don't want to do such a thing at all, but in the financial field, people often do such things without going through their brains.</p><p>02. Suppose you have US $100 million at the beginning of the year. If you don't use leverage, you can earn 10%. The success rate of leverage is 99%, and you can earn 20%. At the end of the year, you have US $110 million or US $120 million. Is there a difference? There's no difference.</p><p>If you die at the end of the year, the person who wrote the obituary may have made a clerical error. Although you have 120 million, he wrote 110 million.</p><p>What's the use of extra money? It's no use at all. It doesn't work for you, your family, or anyone else.</p><p>03. We basically never borrowed money. Of course, our insurance company has float funds, but I never borrowed money at all.</p><p>I don't borrow money when I only have 10,000 yuan. Is it different if I don't borrow money? I am also very happy to invest when I have less money.</p><p>I don't care if I have 10,000, 100,000, or 1 million. Unless there is an emergency, such as a serious illness and urgent need of money.</p><p>04. If you have 1 yuan now and think that when you have 2 yuan in the future, you can live happier than you are now, you may be wrong. Don't think that earning 10 or 20 times can solve all the problems in life. Such thoughts can easily lead you into the ditch.</p><p>Borrow money when you shouldn't, or be eager for quick success and instant benefit, opportunistic, and do things you shouldn't do, and there will be no place to buy regret medicine in the future.</p><p>02</p><p>A business that can be understood is a good business</p><p>05. American economist Henry Kaufman has such a famous saying:</p><p>\"There are two kinds of people who go bankrupt, one knows nothing, and the other knows everything.\"</p><p>I hope everyone can take it as a warning.</p><p>06. I like businesses that I can understand. I use this screen, and 90% of the companies are filtered out.</p><p>Some things can't be done when you know you don't understand them.</p><p>07. I don't like easy business. Business is easy and will attract competitors. I like business with a moat.</p><p>I hope to have a priceless castle, the duke guarding the castle with both ability and political integrity, and the castle is surrounded by a wide moat.</p><p>I've often been interested in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Widen the moat, said the manager of the subsidiary. Throw crocodiles, sharks into the moat and keep competitors out.</p><p>This depends on service, product quality, cost, and sometimes patents or business location. That's the kind of business I'm looking for.</p><p>Where can I find such a business? I look for good business from those simple products.</p><p>In fact, it's easy to understand that the current economic situation is good, and the management has both ability and political integrity. I can roughly see what will happen to such businesses in ten years. Some businesses, I don't see what will happen in ten years, so I won't buy them.</p><p>Like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>, lotus,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>These companies, I don't understand what their moats will be like in ten years.</p><p>Gates is the best business wizard I've ever met,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Also have a huge lead, but I really don't know what Microsoft will be in ten years, and I can't know exactly what Microsoft's competitors will be in ten years.</p><p>However, I know what the chewing gum business will be like in ten years. No matter how the Internet develops, it won't change our chewing gum habit. It seems that nothing can change our chewing gum habit. There will surely be more new varieties of gum coming, but will the white and yellow arrows disappear? No, no.</p><p>I imagine myself, if I have $1 billion, can I hurt this company? Give me 10 billion dollars and let me work globally and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Competition, I can hurt<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Is it? I can't do it. Such a business is a good business.</p><p>08. No matter what time, you must know what you are doing so that you can make a good investment. We must understand the business. We can understand some businesses, but not all businesses.</p><p>09. No matter whether a company is large-cap, small-cap, mid-cap or ultra-small-cap, we only consider the following points:</p><p>Can we understand the business of this company? Do we like the management of this company? Does this company have cheap prices?</p><p>03</p><p>Buying stocks is buying companies</p><p>Market declines are good opportunities</p><p>10. If the companies you invest in don't make money themselves, it will be difficult for you to make money.</p><p>11. After people buy stocks, they stare at the stock price early the next morning, looking at the stock price to determine whether their investment is doing well, and they are confused.</p><p>Buying stocks is buying companies, which is the most basic truth Graham taught me.</p><p>Remember, you're not buying shares, but a portion of the ownership of the company. As long as the company's business is good, and the price you buy is not ridiculously high, and your income is not bad, investing in stocks is as simple as that.</p><p>12. I prefer to see the market fall. When it falls sharply, it is easier to buy good goods and make good use of money. To invest in stocks, this is a truth you must first learn.</p><p>13. What you want to buy, you must have a reason. If you can't tell the reason, don't buy it.</p><p>14. Some people regard buying stocks as watching horse races, so it doesn't matter, but if you are investing, investment is to invest funds and make sure that you can recover the funds at a suitable rate of return in the future.</p><p>15. What we are thinking about is not how to get a super high rate of return, but always keep in mind that we will never lose money.</p><p>16. Most<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>Companies are those that you think are expensive in terms of numbers and are reluctant to buy, but you still want to buy them.</p><p>04</p><p>Hold the circle of competence</p><p>Recognize good business</p><p>17. If you can't understand a business at a glance, it takes another month or two, and you still can't understand it.</p><p>To understand a business, you must have enough background knowledge, and you must know what you know and what you don't know. This is the key. This is what I often mean when I say about the circle of competence. Be clear about your circle of competence.</p><p>18. Everyone has their own circle of competence. What matters is not how big the circle of competence is, but staying within the circle of competence.</p><p>If there are thousands of companies on the main board, your circle of competence only covers 30 of them, as long as you know which 30 companies it is, that's fine.</p><p>19. As long as it is a good business, nothing else matters. As long as it is a good business, I don't care about big or small things, and I don't think about this year and next year.</p><p>Good business, you can see how it will be in the future, but you don't know when it will be.</p><p>When you look at a business, you can concentrate on thinking about what will happen to it in the future. Don't worry too much about when. It doesn't matter much how the future of the business can be seen through, and when it is.</p><p>20. For my partner Charlie Munger and I, the biggest mistake we ever made was not doing something wrong, but not doing what we should have done.</p><p>In these mistakes, we know a lot about the business and should have acted, but we don't know what happened. We just hesitated and didn't do anything.</p><p>21. I don't study macro issues. The most important thing in investment is to find out what is important and knowable. If something is unimportant and unknowable, then leave it alone.</p><p>22. The routine of general consulting agencies is as follows. First, they pull out their economists and walk around twice, talk about some big macro patterns, and then analyze them from top to bottom. We think those are all nonsense.</p><p>23. When we decide whether to buy a company or not, we never use our feelings about macro issues as the basis. We don't look at forecasts about interest rates or corporate earnings, it's useless to look at them.</p><p>05</p><p>Be a friend of time</p><p>Make money by not tossing</p><p>24. Find a good investment opportunity a year, and then hold it all the time, waiting for its potential to be fully released.</p><p>In an environment where people call back and forth for quotes every five minutes, and in an environment where others keep stuffing all kinds of reports in front of you, it is difficult to hold still. Wall Street makes money by tossing, and you make money by not tossing.</p><p>25. If everyone here trades their portfolios with each other every day, everyone will eventually go bankrupt, and all the money will end up in the pockets of middlemen.</p><p>Another way, you all hold investment portfolios composed of ordinary companies, and you will remain motionless for 50 years. In the end, you will all be rich and your brokerage will go bankrupt. A doctor like this in a brokerage firm, the more times he asks you to change your medicine, the more he earns.</p><p>If he gives you a medicine and cures your disease, he can only make a deal, a deal, and then it's gone. If he can convince you that changing all kinds of medicines every day is good for your health, which is good for him and good for the medicine seller, you will lose a lot of money. Your health won't get better, and you will lose money.</p><p>26. Stay away from any environment that stimulates you to mess around.</p><p>27. No matter which company we buy, we don't set a price target when we buy it.</p><p>For example, we bought it at 30, and never thought it would go up to 40, 50, 60 or 100 and sell it. This has never been the case.</p><p>We hope that the company we buy is optimistic now and will be equally optimistic five years from now.</p><p>28. The correct way of thinking about a company is, in the long run, can the company make more and more money? If the answer is yes, there is no need to ask any other questions.</p><p>29. Time is the friend of good business and the enemy of bad business.</p><p>If you hold a bad business for a long time, even if you buy it cheaply, you will only get a bad profit in the end. If you hold a good business for a long time, even if you buy it more expensively, as long as you hold it for a long time, you will still achieve excellent returns.</p><p>06</p><p>A diversified business</p><p>Should not exceed 6</p><p>30. If you are not a professional investor and do not pursue the goal of achieving excess returns by managing funds, I think you should highly diversify your investments.</p><p>31. If you can really understand business, you should own no more than six businesses.</p><p>If you can find six good businesses, it's enough to spread out, no need to spread out any more, and you can make a lot of money.</p><p>I can guarantee that if you don't invest your money in the business you are most optimistic about, but do the seventh business, you will definitely fall into the ditch. Few people make their fortune on the seventh best idea, but many people make their fortune on the best idea.</p><p>32. If you ask me, if I invest all my funds in a company and don't move for twenty years, I will choose<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>Or Coca-Cola, actually<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>The product line is more diversified, but in comparison, I think Coca-Cola is more certain than Procter & Gamble.</p><p>Procter & Gamble can be selected into the top 5% of my most optimistic companies. Procter & Gamble will not be defeated by competitors, but in the next 20 or 30 years, between Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola, I am more optimistic about the sales growth potential and pricing power of Coca-Cola.</p><p>33. I still prefer a business where the product itself sells well.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>There have been more and more promotional activities in recent years, and it is increasingly relying on promotions rather than relying on the products themselves to sell well.</p><p>By contrast, I prefer Gillette. People buy the Speed 3 because they like the product itself, not to get some gifts.</p><p>Every night, think that one or two hundred million men's beards are growing, and when you sleep, men's beards are growing all the time, and you can sleep soundly. Think again, women all have two legs, which is even better. This method is much more effective than counting sheep. If you want to find it, look for such a business.</p><p>07</p><p>Some suggestions for young people</p><p>34. The shackles of habit are too light to detect at first, but later they are too heavy to get rid of.</p><p>35. If someone turns me off, but I can make 100 million dollars with him, I will flatly refuse. Otherwise, what's the difference between getting married for money?</p><p>No matter at any time, you can't get married for money, let alone if you are already rich.</p><p>36. I have a job that I love. I loved my job when I thought making $1,000 was a lot of money.</p><p>Students, do what you like. If you always do jobs that you don't like, just to make the work experience on your resume more beautiful, then you are really confused.</p><p>37. Whatever job you want to do after your financial freedom, you should do what job now. Such a job is the ideal job.</p><p>38. Doing a job you don't like, don't you feel a bit like saving your sex life when you are young and saving it until you are older?</p><p>Sooner or later, you should both start doing what you really want to do.</p><p>39. We never think about the past. We feel that there is so much to look forward to in the future, so why worry about the past.</p><p>If you don't dwell on the past, it's useless to dwell on it. Life can only look forward.</p><p>40. Do what you like and make friends with people you like all your life.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zhenghedao","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | Buffett's 40 sentences are highly recommended by Duan Yongping</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | Buffett's 40 sentences are highly recommended by Duan Yongping\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">正和岛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-13 21:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Buffett said that no matter whether a company is large-cap, small-cap, mid-cap, or ultra-small-cap, we only consider the following points: Can we understand the business of this company? Do we like the management of this company? Is this company cheap?</b>In 1998, Buffett gave a super connotative speech at the University of Florida Business School. This speech was later called the most classic speech in Buffett's life, without exception.<b>Duan Yongping strongly recommends the content of this speech, which is said to have been read 10 times.</b></p><p>Please be tricky when asking questions. The more difficult the questions you ask, the more fun it will be. \"</p><p>It is worth mentioning that during the nearly one-and-a-half-hour speech, Buffett himself did not make a long speech, but gave most of the time to the students at the scene, asking them to raise the issues they were most concerned about.</p><p>\"What kind of company do you like?\"</p><p>\"How much should I spend to buy a company?\"</p><p>\"Can you tell us something about your mistakes in business?\"</p><p>The sharp questions did not stump the \"stock god\". He not only answered the students' questions humorously, but also used the questions to deeply analyze his stock selection criteria, portfolio construction and way of thinking.</p><p><b>Huang Zheng said before, \"I found that what Buffett said is actually so simple that even my mother can understand it. Common sense is obvious and easy to understand, but we are blinded by the prejudice formed by growth and learning and the demands of personal interests.\"</b></p><p>As Huang Zheng said, Buffett is extremely good at telling everyone important investment philosophies with very easy-to-understand metaphors. This was the case twenty years ago. Vivid cases and visual expressions made this speech a classics. The classics among classics are still very enlightening when revisited today.</p><p>The original text of the speech is long,<b>We have compiled 40 highlights and compiled them into an article.</b>It involves investment philosophy, business judgment and hopes for young people. I believe it will inspire you after reading it.</p><p>01</p><p>Don't do anything outside the margin of safety</p><p>01. Suppose you hand me a gun with 1,000 magazines, 1 million magazines, and only one magazine has a bullet in it. You say, \"Point the gun at your temple and pull the trigger. How much do you want?\" I quit. I won't do it no matter how much money you give me.</p><p>If I win, I don't need the money; If I lose, the result will be needless to say. I don't want to do such a thing at all, but in the financial field, people often do such things without going through their brains.</p><p>02. Suppose you have US $100 million at the beginning of the year. If you don't use leverage, you can earn 10%. The success rate of leverage is 99%, and you can earn 20%. At the end of the year, you have US $110 million or US $120 million. Is there a difference? There's no difference.</p><p>If you die at the end of the year, the person who wrote the obituary may have made a clerical error. Although you have 120 million, he wrote 110 million.</p><p>What's the use of extra money? It's no use at all. It doesn't work for you, your family, or anyone else.</p><p>03. We basically never borrowed money. Of course, our insurance company has float funds, but I never borrowed money at all.</p><p>I don't borrow money when I only have 10,000 yuan. Is it different if I don't borrow money? I am also very happy to invest when I have less money.</p><p>I don't care if I have 10,000, 100,000, or 1 million. Unless there is an emergency, such as a serious illness and urgent need of money.</p><p>04. If you have 1 yuan now and think that when you have 2 yuan in the future, you can live happier than you are now, you may be wrong. Don't think that earning 10 or 20 times can solve all the problems in life. Such thoughts can easily lead you into the ditch.</p><p>Borrow money when you shouldn't, or be eager for quick success and instant benefit, opportunistic, and do things you shouldn't do, and there will be no place to buy regret medicine in the future.</p><p>02</p><p>A business that can be understood is a good business</p><p>05. American economist Henry Kaufman has such a famous saying:</p><p>\"There are two kinds of people who go bankrupt, one knows nothing, and the other knows everything.\"</p><p>I hope everyone can take it as a warning.</p><p>06. I like businesses that I can understand. I use this screen, and 90% of the companies are filtered out.</p><p>Some things can't be done when you know you don't understand them.</p><p>07. I don't like easy business. Business is easy and will attract competitors. I like business with a moat.</p><p>I hope to have a priceless castle, the duke guarding the castle with both ability and political integrity, and the castle is surrounded by a wide moat.</p><p>I've often been interested in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Widen the moat, said the manager of the subsidiary. Throw crocodiles, sharks into the moat and keep competitors out.</p><p>This depends on service, product quality, cost, and sometimes patents or business location. That's the kind of business I'm looking for.</p><p>Where can I find such a business? I look for good business from those simple products.</p><p>In fact, it's easy to understand that the current economic situation is good, and the management has both ability and political integrity. I can roughly see what will happen to such businesses in ten years. Some businesses, I don't see what will happen in ten years, so I won't buy them.</p><p>Like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>, lotus,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>These companies, I don't understand what their moats will be like in ten years.</p><p>Gates is the best business wizard I've ever met,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Also have a huge lead, but I really don't know what Microsoft will be in ten years, and I can't know exactly what Microsoft's competitors will be in ten years.</p><p>However, I know what the chewing gum business will be like in ten years. No matter how the Internet develops, it won't change our chewing gum habit. It seems that nothing can change our chewing gum habit. There will surely be more new varieties of gum coming, but will the white and yellow arrows disappear? No, no.</p><p>I imagine myself, if I have $1 billion, can I hurt this company? Give me 10 billion dollars and let me work globally and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Competition, I can hurt<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Is it? I can't do it. Such a business is a good business.</p><p>08. No matter what time, you must know what you are doing so that you can make a good investment. We must understand the business. We can understand some businesses, but not all businesses.</p><p>09. No matter whether a company is large-cap, small-cap, mid-cap or ultra-small-cap, we only consider the following points:</p><p>Can we understand the business of this company? Do we like the management of this company? Does this company have cheap prices?</p><p>03</p><p>Buying stocks is buying companies</p><p>Market declines are good opportunities</p><p>10. If the companies you invest in don't make money themselves, it will be difficult for you to make money.</p><p>11. After people buy stocks, they stare at the stock price early the next morning, looking at the stock price to determine whether their investment is doing well, and they are confused.</p><p>Buying stocks is buying companies, which is the most basic truth Graham taught me.</p><p>Remember, you're not buying shares, but a portion of the ownership of the company. As long as the company's business is good, and the price you buy is not ridiculously high, and your income is not bad, investing in stocks is as simple as that.</p><p>12. I prefer to see the market fall. When it falls sharply, it is easier to buy good goods and make good use of money. To invest in stocks, this is a truth you must first learn.</p><p>13. What you want to buy, you must have a reason. If you can't tell the reason, don't buy it.</p><p>14. Some people regard buying stocks as watching horse races, so it doesn't matter, but if you are investing, investment is to invest funds and make sure that you can recover the funds at a suitable rate of return in the future.</p><p>15. What we are thinking about is not how to get a super high rate of return, but always keep in mind that we will never lose money.</p><p>16. Most<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>Companies are those that you think are expensive in terms of numbers and are reluctant to buy, but you still want to buy them.</p><p>04</p><p>Hold the circle of competence</p><p>Recognize good business</p><p>17. If you can't understand a business at a glance, it takes another month or two, and you still can't understand it.</p><p>To understand a business, you must have enough background knowledge, and you must know what you know and what you don't know. This is the key. This is what I often mean when I say about the circle of competence. Be clear about your circle of competence.</p><p>18. Everyone has their own circle of competence. What matters is not how big the circle of competence is, but staying within the circle of competence.</p><p>If there are thousands of companies on the main board, your circle of competence only covers 30 of them, as long as you know which 30 companies it is, that's fine.</p><p>19. As long as it is a good business, nothing else matters. As long as it is a good business, I don't care about big or small things, and I don't think about this year and next year.</p><p>Good business, you can see how it will be in the future, but you don't know when it will be.</p><p>When you look at a business, you can concentrate on thinking about what will happen to it in the future. Don't worry too much about when. It doesn't matter much how the future of the business can be seen through, and when it is.</p><p>20. For my partner Charlie Munger and I, the biggest mistake we ever made was not doing something wrong, but not doing what we should have done.</p><p>In these mistakes, we know a lot about the business and should have acted, but we don't know what happened. We just hesitated and didn't do anything.</p><p>21. I don't study macro issues. The most important thing in investment is to find out what is important and knowable. If something is unimportant and unknowable, then leave it alone.</p><p>22. The routine of general consulting agencies is as follows. First, they pull out their economists and walk around twice, talk about some big macro patterns, and then analyze them from top to bottom. We think those are all nonsense.</p><p>23. When we decide whether to buy a company or not, we never use our feelings about macro issues as the basis. We don't look at forecasts about interest rates or corporate earnings, it's useless to look at them.</p><p>05</p><p>Be a friend of time</p><p>Make money by not tossing</p><p>24. Find a good investment opportunity a year, and then hold it all the time, waiting for its potential to be fully released.</p><p>In an environment where people call back and forth for quotes every five minutes, and in an environment where others keep stuffing all kinds of reports in front of you, it is difficult to hold still. Wall Street makes money by tossing, and you make money by not tossing.</p><p>25. If everyone here trades their portfolios with each other every day, everyone will eventually go bankrupt, and all the money will end up in the pockets of middlemen.</p><p>Another way, you all hold investment portfolios composed of ordinary companies, and you will remain motionless for 50 years. In the end, you will all be rich and your brokerage will go bankrupt. A doctor like this in a brokerage firm, the more times he asks you to change your medicine, the more he earns.</p><p>If he gives you a medicine and cures your disease, he can only make a deal, a deal, and then it's gone. If he can convince you that changing all kinds of medicines every day is good for your health, which is good for him and good for the medicine seller, you will lose a lot of money. Your health won't get better, and you will lose money.</p><p>26. Stay away from any environment that stimulates you to mess around.</p><p>27. No matter which company we buy, we don't set a price target when we buy it.</p><p>For example, we bought it at 30, and never thought it would go up to 40, 50, 60 or 100 and sell it. This has never been the case.</p><p>We hope that the company we buy is optimistic now and will be equally optimistic five years from now.</p><p>28. The correct way of thinking about a company is, in the long run, can the company make more and more money? If the answer is yes, there is no need to ask any other questions.</p><p>29. Time is the friend of good business and the enemy of bad business.</p><p>If you hold a bad business for a long time, even if you buy it cheaply, you will only get a bad profit in the end. If you hold a good business for a long time, even if you buy it more expensively, as long as you hold it for a long time, you will still achieve excellent returns.</p><p>06</p><p>A diversified business</p><p>Should not exceed 6</p><p>30. If you are not a professional investor and do not pursue the goal of achieving excess returns by managing funds, I think you should highly diversify your investments.</p><p>31. If you can really understand business, you should own no more than six businesses.</p><p>If you can find six good businesses, it's enough to spread out, no need to spread out any more, and you can make a lot of money.</p><p>I can guarantee that if you don't invest your money in the business you are most optimistic about, but do the seventh business, you will definitely fall into the ditch. Few people make their fortune on the seventh best idea, but many people make their fortune on the best idea.</p><p>32. If you ask me, if I invest all my funds in a company and don't move for twenty years, I will choose<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>Or Coca-Cola, actually<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>The product line is more diversified, but in comparison, I think Coca-Cola is more certain than Procter & Gamble.</p><p>Procter & Gamble can be selected into the top 5% of my most optimistic companies. Procter & Gamble will not be defeated by competitors, but in the next 20 or 30 years, between Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola, I am more optimistic about the sales growth potential and pricing power of Coca-Cola.</p><p>33. I still prefer a business where the product itself sells well.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>There have been more and more promotional activities in recent years, and it is increasingly relying on promotions rather than relying on the products themselves to sell well.</p><p>By contrast, I prefer Gillette. People buy the Speed 3 because they like the product itself, not to get some gifts.</p><p>Every night, think that one or two hundred million men's beards are growing, and when you sleep, men's beards are growing all the time, and you can sleep soundly. Think again, women all have two legs, which is even better. This method is much more effective than counting sheep. If you want to find it, look for such a business.</p><p>07</p><p>Some suggestions for young people</p><p>34. The shackles of habit are too light to detect at first, but later they are too heavy to get rid of.</p><p>35. If someone turns me off, but I can make 100 million dollars with him, I will flatly refuse. Otherwise, what's the difference between getting married for money?</p><p>No matter at any time, you can't get married for money, let alone if you are already rich.</p><p>36. I have a job that I love. I loved my job when I thought making $1,000 was a lot of money.</p><p>Students, do what you like. If you always do jobs that you don't like, just to make the work experience on your resume more beautiful, then you are really confused.</p><p>37. Whatever job you want to do after your financial freedom, you should do what job now. Such a job is the ideal job.</p><p>38. Doing a job you don't like, don't you feel a bit like saving your sex life when you are young and saving it until you are older?</p><p>Sooner or later, you should both start doing what you really want to do.</p><p>39. We never think about the past. We feel that there is so much to look forward to in the future, so why worry about the past.</p><p>If you don't dwell on the past, it's useless to dwell on it. Life can only look forward.</p><p>40. Do what you like and make friends with people you like all your life.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_If2Jbd9zIFKl-lKJJqdaA\">正和岛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8356647b06585ac937a0f45e6aeb17","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_If2Jbd9zIFKl-lKJJqdaA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2225584750","content_text":"巴菲特说,不管一家公司是大盘、小盘、中盘、还是超小盘,我们只考虑这么几点:这家公司的生意我们能不能看懂?这家公司的管理层我们喜不喜欢?这家公司的价格是否便宜?1998年,巴菲特在佛罗里达大学商学院做了一场超有内涵的演讲,这次演讲后来被称为是巴菲特一生中最经典的演讲,没有之一。段永平强烈推荐这次的演讲内容,据说已经看了10遍。请各位提问时一定要刁钻,你们问的问题越难,才越好玩。”值得一提的是,近一个半小时的演讲中,巴菲特本人并没有长篇大论,而是把大部分时间交给了现场的同学,让他们提出自己最为关心的问题。“您喜欢什么样的公司?”“到底该花多少钱买一家公司?”“能否讲讲您在商业中犯的错误?”一个个犀利的问题并没有难倒这位“股神”,他既幽默风趣的回答了学生们的提问,又借着问题深入剖析了自己的选股标准、组合构建和思维方式。黄峥此前说过,“我发现巴菲特讲的东西其实特别简单,连我母亲都能听懂。常识显而易见、容易理解,但我们因为成长、学习形成的偏见和个人利益的诉求蒙蔽了我们。”如黄峥所言,巴菲特极其擅长把重要的投资哲理用非常通俗易懂的比喻来告诉大家,二十年前便是如此,一个个生动的案例加上形象化的表达,让这场演讲成为经典中的经典,今天重温下来,依然极具启迪意义。演讲原文较长,我们从中整理了40条精华内容摘编成文,涉及投资理念、生意判断以及对年轻人的希冀,相信读后一定会对你有所启发。01别做安全边际以外的事01. 假设你递给我一把枪,里面有1000个弹仓、100万个弹仓,其中只有一个弹仓里有一颗子弹,你说:“把枪对准你的太阳穴,扣一下扳机,你要多少钱?”我不干。你给我多少钱,我都不干。要是我赢了,我不需要那些钱;要是我输了,结果不用说了。这样的事,我一点都不想做,但是在金融领域,人们经常做这样的事,都不经过大脑。02. 假设年初你有1亿美元,如果不上杠杆,能赚10%,上杠杆的成功率是99%,能赚20%,年末时你有1.1亿美元,还是1.2亿美元,有区别吗?没一点区别。要是年末你死了,写讣告的人可能有个笔误,虽然你有1.2亿,但他写成了1.1亿。多赚的钱有什么用?一点用没有。对你、对你的家人,对别人,都没用。03. 我们基本上没借过钱,当然我们的保险公司里有浮存金,但是我压根没借过钱。我只有1万块钱的时候都不借钱,不借钱不一样吗?我钱少的时候做投资也很开心。我根本不在乎我到底是有1万、10万,还是100万。除非遇上了急事,比如生了大病急需用钱。04. 如果你现在有1块钱,以为将来有2块钱的时候,自己能比现在过得更幸福,你可能想错了,别以为赚10倍或20倍能解决生活中的所有问题,这样的想法很容易把你带到沟里去。在不该借钱的时候借钱,或者急功近利、投机取巧,做自己不该做的事,将来都没地方买后悔药。02能看懂的生意才是好生意05. 美国经济学家亨利·考夫曼有这么一句名言:“破产的有两种人,一种是什么都不知道的,一种是什么都知道的。”希望大家能引以为戒。06. 我喜欢我能看懂的生意,我用这一条筛选,90%的公司都被过滤掉了。有些东西明知道自己不懂,就不能做。07. 我不喜欢很容易的生意,生意很容易,会招来竞争对手,我喜欢有护城河的生意。我希望拥有一座价值连城的城堡,守护城堡的公爵德才兼备,而且这座城堡周围有宽广的护城河。我经常对伯克希尔子公司的管理者说,加宽护城河。往护城河里扔鳄鱼、鲨鱼,把竞争对手挡在外面。这要靠服务、靠产品质量、靠成本,有时候要靠专利或营业地点。我要找的就是这样的生意。在哪能找到这样的生意呢?我从那些简单的产品里寻找好生意。其实很容易理解,当前的经济状况良好,管理层德才兼备,这样的生意,我能大概看出来它们十年后会怎样。有的生意,我看不出来十年后会怎样,我不买。像甲骨文、莲花、微软这些公司,我就搞不懂它们的护城河十年之后会怎样。盖茨是我遇到过的最优秀的商业奇才,微软也拥有巨大的领先优势,但我真不知道微软十年后会怎样,也无法确切地知道微软的竞争对手十年后会怎样。不过,我知道口香糖生意十年后会怎样,互联网再怎么发展,都不会改变我们嚼口香糖的习惯,好像没什么能改变我们嚼口香糖的习惯。肯定会有更多新品种的口香糖出现,但白箭和黄箭会消失吗?不会。我自己设想,要是我有10亿美元,能伤着这家公司吗?给我100亿美元,让我在全球和可口可乐竞争,我能伤着可口可乐吗?我做不到。这样的生意是好生意。08. 无论什么时候,都要知道自己在做什么,这样才能做好投资。必须把生意看懂了,有的生意是我们能看懂的,但不是所有生意我们都能看懂。09. 我们不管一家公司是大盘、小盘、中盘、还是超小盘,我们只考虑这么几点:这家公司的生意我们能不能看懂?这家公司的管理层我们喜不喜欢?这家公司的价格是否便宜?03买股票就是买公司市场下跌是好机会10. 如果你投资的公司本身都不赚钱,你也很难赚钱。11. 人们买完股票后,第二天一早就盯着股价,看股价决定自己的投资做得好不好,糊涂到家了。买股票就是买公司,这是格雷厄姆教给我的最基本的道理。记住,你买的不是股票,而是公司的一部分所有权。只要公司生意好,而且你买的价格不是高得离谱,你的收益也差不了,投资股票就这么简单。12. 我更愿意看到市场下跌,大跌的时候更容易买到好货,更容易把钱用好,要投资股票,这是你必须首先学会的一个道理。13. 自己要买什么,一定要有个理由,说不出来理由的,别买。14. 有的人把买股票当成看赛马,那无所谓了,但如果你是在投资的话,投资是把资金投进去,确定将来能以合适的收益率收回资金。15. 我们想的不是怎么获得超高的回报率,而是始终牢记永远不亏钱。16. 最值得买的公司,是那些你觉得从数字上看很贵,舍不得买,但还是很想买的公司。04守住能力圈认定好生意17. 一门生意,要是你不能一眼看懂,再花一两个月的时间,你还是看不懂。要看懂一门生意,必须有足够的背景知识才行,而且要清楚自己知道什么,不知道什么,这是关键。我常说的能力圈就是这个意思,要清楚自己的能力圈。18. 每个人都有自己的能力圈,重要的不是能力圈有多大,而是待在能力圈的范围之内。如果主板中有几千家公司,你的能力圈只涵盖其中的 30 家,只要你清楚是哪30家,就可以了。19. 只要是好生意,别的什么东西都不重要。只要是好生意,我就不管那些大事小事,也不考虑今年明年如何之类的问题。好生意,你能看出来它将来会怎样,但是不知道会是什么时候。看一个生意,你就一门心思琢磨它将来会怎么样,别太纠结什么时候。把生意的将来能怎么样看透了,到底是什么时候,就没多大关系了。20. 对于我和我的合伙人查理·芒格来说,我们犯过的最大的错误不是做错了什么,而是该做的没做。在这些错误中,我们对生意很了解,本来应该行动,但不知道怎么了,我们就在那犹豫来犹豫去,什么都没做。21. 我不研究宏观问题,投资中最紧要的是弄清什么事是重要的、可知的。如果一件事是不重要的、不可知的,那就别管了。22. 一般的咨询机构的套路是这样的,先把他们的经济学家拉出来溜两圈,讲一些大的宏观格局,然后自上而下地分析,我们觉得那些都是胡扯。23. 我们在决定买不买一家公司时,从来不把我们对宏观问题的感觉作为依据。我们不看关于利率或公司盈利的预测,看了没用。05做时间的朋友靠不折腾赚钱24. 一年找到一个好的投资机会,然后一直持有,等待它的潜力充分释放出来。在一个人们每五分钟就来回喊报价的环境里,在一个别人总把各种报告塞到你面前的环境里,很难做到持有不动。华尔街靠折腾赚钱,你靠不折腾赚钱。25. 要是在座的各位每天都相互交易自己的投资组合,所有人最后都会破产,所有的钱最后都会进到中间商的口袋里。换个做法,你们都持有一般公司组成的投资组合,50年里你们都一动不动,最后你们都会很有钱,你们的券商会破产。券商像这样一个医生,他让你换药的次数越多,他赚的越多。他要是给你一种药,把你的病根治了,他只能做成一笔买卖,一笔交易,然后就没了。如果他能让你相信每天换各种药吃对健康有益,这对他有好处,对卖药的有好处,你会亏很多钱。你的身体好不了,还会破财。26. 任何刺激你瞎折腾的环境,都要远离。27. 不管买哪家公司,我们买的时候都不设定价格目标。例如,我们是30买的,从没想过涨到40、50、60或100就卖了,从来没这样过。我们希望自己买入的公司,现在看好,五年后一样看好。28. 看一家公司正确的思维方式是,长期来看,这家公司是否能越来越赚钱?如果答案是能,别的问题都用不着问了。29. 时间是好生意的朋友,烂生意的敌人。如果长期持有一个烂生意,就算买得再便宜,最后也只能取得很烂的收益。如果长期持有好生意,就算买得贵了一些,只要长期持有,还是会取得出色的收益。06分散投资的生意不应超过6个30. 如果不是职业投资者,不追求通过管理资金实现超额收益率的目标,我觉得应该高度分散投资。31. 要是你真能看懂生意,你拥有的生意不应该超过六个。要是你能找到六个好生意,就已经足够分散了,用不着再分散了,而且你能赚很多钱。我敢保证,你不把钱投到你最看好的那个生意,而是再去做第七个生意,肯定会掉到沟里。靠第七个最好的主意发家的人很少,靠最好的主意发家的人很多。32. 要是你问我,我要是把我的所有资金都投入到一家公司,二十年不动,我会选宝洁还是可口可乐,其实宝洁的产品线更多元化,但是比较起来,我认为可口可乐的确定性比宝洁的确定性高。宝洁可以入选我最看好的公司中的前5%,宝洁不会被竞争对手打垮,但是从将来二三十年看,在宝洁和可可口乐之间,我更看好可口可乐的销量增长潜力和定价权。33. 我还是更喜欢产品本身卖得好的生意。麦当劳这几年的促销活动越来越多,它越来越依赖促销,而不是靠产品本身卖得好。相比之下,我更喜欢吉列,人们买锋速3是因为他们喜欢锋速3这个产品本身,不是为了得到什么赠品才买的。每天晚上,想想一两亿男人的胡子都在长,你睡觉的时候,男人们的胡子一直在长,你就能睡得很踏实。再想想,女人们都有两条腿,这更好了。这个方法比数绵羊管用多了,要找就找这样的生意。07给年轻人的几点建议34. 习惯的枷锁,开始的时候轻的难以察觉,到后来却重的无法摆脱。35. 要是有个人让我倒胃口,但是和他走到一起,我能赚1亿美元,我会断然拒绝,要不和为了钱结婚有什么两样?无论什么时候,都不能为了钱结婚,要是已经很有钱了,更不能这样。36. 我有一份我热爱的工作,当年我觉得赚1,000美元是一大笔钱的时候,我就喜欢我的工作。同学们,做你们喜欢的工作,要是你总做那些自己不喜欢的工作,只是为了让简历上的工作经历更漂亮,那你真是糊涂了。37. 你财富自由之后想做什么工作,现在就该做什么工作,这样的工作才是理想的工作。38. 做自己不喜欢的工作,不觉得有点像年轻的时候把性生活省下来,留到岁数大的时候再用吗?或早或晚,你们都应该开始做自己真心想做的事。39. 我们从来不想已经过去的事,我们觉得未来有那么多值得期待的,何必对过去耿耿于怀。不纠结过去的事,纠结也没用,人生只能向前看。40. 一辈子都做自己喜欢的事,交自己喜欢的人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":1,"BRK.B":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034258376,"gmtCreate":1647909224774,"gmtModify":1676534278141,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567665939928011","authorIdStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034258376","repostId":"1129199259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129199259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647874342,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129199259?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-21 22:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | Munger: Do these things well, and the road to wealth and freedom is simple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129199259","media":"期乐会","summary":"芒格认为,每个人想参与投资游戏的人都必须了解自己的天性,都必须在考虑自己的边际效用和心理承受能力后才能开始投资。几十年以来,在股神巴菲特的光环背后默默站着一个人,他就是查理·芒格。他们年轻时相识,彼此","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Munger believes that everyone who wants to participate in the investment game must understand their own nature and must consider their marginal utility and psychological endurance before they can start investing. For decades, there has been a man standing silently behind the aura of stock god Buffett, and he is Charlie Munger. They met when they were young, appreciated each other, and their values were highly consistent. Buffett said without words: Without Munger, I would be much poorer than I am now. I am beyond words of gratitude to him. They are life partners with equal wisdom and co-creators of the investment miracle with a compound annual growth rate of 19.2% in 51 years. The difference is that Munger is too low-key. Every spring, thousands of people travel to Omaha, Nebraska, to attend Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting. They are going to see Buffett, but they are also very interested in the man sitting beside Buffett on the stage and helping the Omaha wise man answer questions from time to time.</p><p>The performance usually goes like this:</p><p>Buffett answers the question first, and the length of time is up to him. When he arrived, he would turn to Munger and ask: Is there anything else you want to add? Munger sat there motionless, and answered simply and crudely: Nothing to add. Occasionally, based on his rich experience and experience, Munger will also put forward some opinions, and then say a short paragraph. Once Munger speaks, the audience listens to his opinion with full attention. On the way to pursue the wisdom of life, he didn't care whether he stood in the spotlight. Even, he hopes that his wealth will remain just below the level of Forbes' rich list, so that he can avoid the spotlight and public attention. Buffett's eldest son once said: My dad is the second smartest person I know, and Charlie Munger is the first.</p><p>Munger is an outstanding investment thinker, but he was not born like this. In his only authorized biography, \"Buffett's Behind-the-Scenes Think Tank: The Biography of Charlie Munger\", he showed the details of his thinking and the key to becoming an investment big coffee.</p><p>1. Self-improvement is the most important</p><p>Munger said, \"To win first place, you have to get ahead and never stand still. I always get into a business better than everyone else. Why? The answer is to learn yourself. That's a really good idea that works.\"</p><p><b>What Munger said about self-study is never-ending self-improvement.</b>On this road of self-improvement, he values three points most:</p><p><b>First, think for yourself.</b></p><p>He said that if you completely rely on others in the process of thinking and always listen to other people's so-called \"professional opinions\", once you leave your own small world, you will be in disaster.</p><p>Graham is Buffett's teacher, the originator of value investing, and the main source of Buffett's early investment ideas. But Munger does not fully agree with Graham. He believes that many of Graham's views ignore the reality of the situation. \"There are blind spots in Graham's thinking. He doesn't realize that some businesses are worth investing in ahead of time.\"</p><p>It is at this point that Buffett believes that Munger has the greatest influence on him, and uses strong willpower to release him from Graham's limited views and push him into the direction of \"buying high-quality assets at the right price\".</p><p>It is precisely because of this that Buffett said, \"Without Munger, I would be much poorer than I am now.\" The classic investment case of Buffett buying BYD and making more than 20 times the profit, which everyone talks about, was also a decision made by Buffett after Munger's strong insistence. \"I'd love to say that it was my decision to invest in BYD, but no, it wasn't my decision to invest in BYD, nor the decision of my investment team, but one day Munger called me and said: We have to invest in BYD.\"</p><p>Munger never blindly follows experts in life. He has his own doctors and accountants, and he will refer to their opinions, but he will not believe them all. He weighed what they said, then studied it himself, and finally came to a conclusion.</p><p><b>Secondly, the role of reading is beyond imagination.</b></p><p>Munger is a voracious scholar. His room, bed, and chair are full of books, but he is not a fan of novels. What he reads is either business, biography, history or science and technology, all based on facts.</p><p>Munger said, \"I'm very clear about why I'm collecting this information. I think about the facts I want to know before I start, and then judge whether the data I see matches the basic concepts. A lot of purposeful reading can create a subconscious habit of connecting what I read with the basic concepts, and gradually accumulate wisdom about investing. You can't be a really good investor without a lot of reading. \"</p><p>Munger believes that reading business magazines is a shortcut.</p><p>Buffett and I have learned more from excellent business magazines than anywhere else. Just flipping through issue after issue quickly can get all kinds of business lessons. This method is so simple and effective. He said that if you want to be smart, you have to constantly ask why, why, why.</p><p>Munger is also a biography freak. He believes that when you want to master some effective great ideas, it is best to combine them with the life and personality of great men. It sounds funny to \"make friends with the right-minded leavers\", but if you do it all your life, it definitely helps.</p><p>Munger studied the lives and scientific works of Einstein, Darwin and Newton, but his favorite leaving man was always Franklin. Munger appreciated Franklin as the best writer, investor, scientist, diplomat and businessman in America at that time, and made great contributions to education and social welfare.</p><p>It was from Franklin that Munger formed the idea that you must become rich to freely contribute to human society. \"I've always been more interested in being a useful person than simply being rich\".</p><p><b>Third, the necessary interdisciplinary thinking.</b></p><p>Munger believes that a person with only a single disciplinary thinking is like a person with only one hammer. And as the famous saying goes, to someone with only one hammer, any problem looks like a nail. People who think in a single discipline have great limitations.</p><p>To form interdisciplinary thinking, Munger's suggestion is that everyone should not be required to keep pace with Laplace's mastery of celestial mechanics, nor should ordinary people be required to reach such a superb level in other fields of knowledge.</p><p>On the contrary, there are not many really important concepts in each discipline, and only a general understanding is needed to grasp the essence. As long as you master the most basic principles and concepts in the discipline, and then constantly apply them, and practice using various discipline thinking to solve practical problems, you can eventually form an advantage for yourself.</p><p>He used himself as an example: he has never studied psychology seriously, but he is interested in psychology and has conducted some self-study. With the content of self-study, he has gained great advantages in investment and life; As a law school student, my professional study is far from natural science, but because I have studied mathematics and physics carefully and mastered some thinking methods of natural science, I have gained the overall thinking advantage. He said:</p><p>I learned from physicists to solve problems by looking for the simplest and most direct answers. The easiest way is always the best way. I also learned from mathematicians to look at the problem upside down, or look at it from the opposite side, reverse and reverse again. 2. In Munger's eyes, the road to wealth and freedom is simple</p><p><b>1. Know yourself well</b></p><p>Munger believes that everyone who wants to participate in the investment game must understand their own nature and must consider their marginal utility and psychological endurance before they can start investing.</p><p>If losses make you miserable-and some losses are inevitable-you should choose a very conservative approach to investing and saving throughout your life. You must incorporate your nature and talent into your investment strategy. There is no universally applicable investment strategy.<b>2. Invest in good business</b></p><p>Before acquiring See's Candy, Buffett and Munger were still bargain professionals. \"If they asked for another $100,000, we wouldn't have bought it,\" Munger said. \"We were so stupid.\"</p><p>When they discovered that See's Candy was an excellent business, Munger realized that it was much easier and enjoyable to buy a high-quality business to keep it running than to buy a struggling company at a low price and then spend time and effort to save it.</p><p>Buffett said that if they hadn't bought See's candy, they might not have bought Coca-Cola later. Munger said:</p><p>I've learned a lot from See's Candy: The way you think and do things must stand the test of time. This experience has made us make more informed acquisitions elsewhere and make better decisions.<b>3. Learn to judge whether a business is a good business</b></p><p>Munger has unusually accurate judgments about business. Buffett once said, \"Munger can analyze and evaluate any transaction faster and more accurately than anyone else in the world. He can see all possible flaws in 60 seconds, and he is a perfect partner.\"</p><p>Munger believes that to judge whether a business is a good business, you need to ask how long can this situation last?</p><p>I only know one way to answer this question, and that is to think about what caused the present situation-and then figure out how long before the driving force for these results will cease to exist.<b>4. When buying stocks in the stock market, what should the stock price be</b></p><p>Having the ability to answer this question explains why some people invest successfully and others don't. \"But then again, if it weren't for a bit of difficulty, everyone would be rich,\" Munger firmly believes.</p><p>Looking at the industry for a long time will give investors better insight in answering this question.</p><p>There used to be a lot of downtown department stores, which seemed invincible. The owner provides customers with a large number of shopping options, strong purchasing power, and also owns the most expensive property in the city. Many tram lines pass by on the corner of the mall. However, over time, private cars became the dominant mode of transportation. The trams disappeared, customers moved to suburbs to live, and shopping malls became the main shopping venue. Some simple changes in our lives can completely change the long-term value of a business.<b>5. Consider redundancy factor</b></p><p>Munger said that although few companies stand tall, every company should be founded expecting to exist for many years. \"Building a dangerous bridge is a crime, but how noble is setting up a fragile company?\" Therefore, Munger believes that the \"redundancy factor\" of enterprises should be considered. Just as when building a bridge, redundancy factor is needed to cope with extreme pressure, the company should also be able to resist the pressure from competitors, economic recessions, oil crises and other natural and man-made disasters. Excessive use of leverage tools or debt will make companies vulnerable to economic storms.</p><p>Many Chinese investors have found that Munger has a spirit and tradition similar to that of traditional Chinese scholar-bureaucrats-he gains wisdom through learning, relies entirely on self-cultivation to achieve business success, adheres to ideals and beliefs, follows moral principles, is rational, honest, optimistic, and full of ultimate concern for society. Reading Munger's biography and getting to know Munger is an unusual journey for us to explore the ways of success in the business society.</p><p><b>Munger's golden sentence:</b></p><p>You definitely have to do business with high caliber people and never wrestle with a pig because if you do you will both get dirty, but the pig will enjoy it.</p><p>The difference between a good business and a bad business is that in a good business, you will make one easy decision after another, while the decisions of a bad business are often extremely painful.</p><p>I am a biographer myself. For example, if you become friends with Adam Smith, you will definitely do economics better. It sounds funny to make friends with great people who have passed away, but if you do this all your life, you will benefit a lot.</p><p>In the final analysis, the investment game is about making more accurate predictions about the future than others. How to do it? One approach is to have this competition in a limited number of regions. If you try to predict the future of everything, you will fail because of your lack of expertise.</p><p>If you want to be smart you have to keep asking why? Why? Why? At the same time, you have to connect the answers to the deep theory of coherence. You have to know those main theories. It's slightly laborious, but full of fun.</p><p>Munger never directs people on exactly what they should do. What he gave the audience was a map where the treasures of wisdom could be found. Only when you truly understand the meaning of the instructions and follow them all the way to the end will the door to the treasure open for you.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | Munger: Do these things well, and the road to wealth and freedom is simple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | Munger: Do these things well, and the road to wealth and freedom is simple\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期乐会</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-21 22:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Munger believes that everyone who wants to participate in the investment game must understand their own nature and must consider their marginal utility and psychological endurance before they can start investing. For decades, there has been a man standing silently behind the aura of stock god Buffett, and he is Charlie Munger. They met when they were young, appreciated each other, and their values were highly consistent. Buffett said without words: Without Munger, I would be much poorer than I am now. I am beyond words of gratitude to him. They are life partners with equal wisdom and co-creators of the investment miracle with a compound annual growth rate of 19.2% in 51 years. The difference is that Munger is too low-key. Every spring, thousands of people travel to Omaha, Nebraska, to attend Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting. They are going to see Buffett, but they are also very interested in the man sitting beside Buffett on the stage and helping the Omaha wise man answer questions from time to time.</p><p>The performance usually goes like this:</p><p>Buffett answers the question first, and the length of time is up to him. When he arrived, he would turn to Munger and ask: Is there anything else you want to add? Munger sat there motionless, and answered simply and crudely: Nothing to add. Occasionally, based on his rich experience and experience, Munger will also put forward some opinions, and then say a short paragraph. Once Munger speaks, the audience listens to his opinion with full attention. On the way to pursue the wisdom of life, he didn't care whether he stood in the spotlight. Even, he hopes that his wealth will remain just below the level of Forbes' rich list, so that he can avoid the spotlight and public attention. Buffett's eldest son once said: My dad is the second smartest person I know, and Charlie Munger is the first.</p><p>Munger is an outstanding investment thinker, but he was not born like this. In his only authorized biography, \"Buffett's Behind-the-Scenes Think Tank: The Biography of Charlie Munger\", he showed the details of his thinking and the key to becoming an investment big coffee.</p><p>1. Self-improvement is the most important</p><p>Munger said, \"To win first place, you have to get ahead and never stand still. I always get into a business better than everyone else. Why? The answer is to learn yourself. That's a really good idea that works.\"</p><p><b>What Munger said about self-study is never-ending self-improvement.</b>On this road of self-improvement, he values three points most:</p><p><b>First, think for yourself.</b></p><p>He said that if you completely rely on others in the process of thinking and always listen to other people's so-called \"professional opinions\", once you leave your own small world, you will be in disaster.</p><p>Graham is Buffett's teacher, the originator of value investing, and the main source of Buffett's early investment ideas. But Munger does not fully agree with Graham. He believes that many of Graham's views ignore the reality of the situation. \"There are blind spots in Graham's thinking. He doesn't realize that some businesses are worth investing in ahead of time.\"</p><p>It is at this point that Buffett believes that Munger has the greatest influence on him, and uses strong willpower to release him from Graham's limited views and push him into the direction of \"buying high-quality assets at the right price\".</p><p>It is precisely because of this that Buffett said, \"Without Munger, I would be much poorer than I am now.\" The classic investment case of Buffett buying BYD and making more than 20 times the profit, which everyone talks about, was also a decision made by Buffett after Munger's strong insistence. \"I'd love to say that it was my decision to invest in BYD, but no, it wasn't my decision to invest in BYD, nor the decision of my investment team, but one day Munger called me and said: We have to invest in BYD.\"</p><p>Munger never blindly follows experts in life. He has his own doctors and accountants, and he will refer to their opinions, but he will not believe them all. He weighed what they said, then studied it himself, and finally came to a conclusion.</p><p><b>Secondly, the role of reading is beyond imagination.</b></p><p>Munger is a voracious scholar. His room, bed, and chair are full of books, but he is not a fan of novels. What he reads is either business, biography, history or science and technology, all based on facts.</p><p>Munger said, \"I'm very clear about why I'm collecting this information. I think about the facts I want to know before I start, and then judge whether the data I see matches the basic concepts. A lot of purposeful reading can create a subconscious habit of connecting what I read with the basic concepts, and gradually accumulate wisdom about investing. You can't be a really good investor without a lot of reading. \"</p><p>Munger believes that reading business magazines is a shortcut.</p><p>Buffett and I have learned more from excellent business magazines than anywhere else. Just flipping through issue after issue quickly can get all kinds of business lessons. This method is so simple and effective. He said that if you want to be smart, you have to constantly ask why, why, why.</p><p>Munger is also a biography freak. He believes that when you want to master some effective great ideas, it is best to combine them with the life and personality of great men. It sounds funny to \"make friends with the right-minded leavers\", but if you do it all your life, it definitely helps.</p><p>Munger studied the lives and scientific works of Einstein, Darwin and Newton, but his favorite leaving man was always Franklin. Munger appreciated Franklin as the best writer, investor, scientist, diplomat and businessman in America at that time, and made great contributions to education and social welfare.</p><p>It was from Franklin that Munger formed the idea that you must become rich to freely contribute to human society. \"I've always been more interested in being a useful person than simply being rich\".</p><p><b>Third, the necessary interdisciplinary thinking.</b></p><p>Munger believes that a person with only a single disciplinary thinking is like a person with only one hammer. And as the famous saying goes, to someone with only one hammer, any problem looks like a nail. People who think in a single discipline have great limitations.</p><p>To form interdisciplinary thinking, Munger's suggestion is that everyone should not be required to keep pace with Laplace's mastery of celestial mechanics, nor should ordinary people be required to reach such a superb level in other fields of knowledge.</p><p>On the contrary, there are not many really important concepts in each discipline, and only a general understanding is needed to grasp the essence. As long as you master the most basic principles and concepts in the discipline, and then constantly apply them, and practice using various discipline thinking to solve practical problems, you can eventually form an advantage for yourself.</p><p>He used himself as an example: he has never studied psychology seriously, but he is interested in psychology and has conducted some self-study. With the content of self-study, he has gained great advantages in investment and life; As a law school student, my professional study is far from natural science, but because I have studied mathematics and physics carefully and mastered some thinking methods of natural science, I have gained the overall thinking advantage. He said:</p><p>I learned from physicists to solve problems by looking for the simplest and most direct answers. The easiest way is always the best way. I also learned from mathematicians to look at the problem upside down, or look at it from the opposite side, reverse and reverse again. 2. In Munger's eyes, the road to wealth and freedom is simple</p><p><b>1. Know yourself well</b></p><p>Munger believes that everyone who wants to participate in the investment game must understand their own nature and must consider their marginal utility and psychological endurance before they can start investing.</p><p>If losses make you miserable-and some losses are inevitable-you should choose a very conservative approach to investing and saving throughout your life. You must incorporate your nature and talent into your investment strategy. There is no universally applicable investment strategy.<b>2. Invest in good business</b></p><p>Before acquiring See's Candy, Buffett and Munger were still bargain professionals. \"If they asked for another $100,000, we wouldn't have bought it,\" Munger said. \"We were so stupid.\"</p><p>When they discovered that See's Candy was an excellent business, Munger realized that it was much easier and enjoyable to buy a high-quality business to keep it running than to buy a struggling company at a low price and then spend time and effort to save it.</p><p>Buffett said that if they hadn't bought See's candy, they might not have bought Coca-Cola later. Munger said:</p><p>I've learned a lot from See's Candy: The way you think and do things must stand the test of time. This experience has made us make more informed acquisitions elsewhere and make better decisions.<b>3. Learn to judge whether a business is a good business</b></p><p>Munger has unusually accurate judgments about business. Buffett once said, \"Munger can analyze and evaluate any transaction faster and more accurately than anyone else in the world. He can see all possible flaws in 60 seconds, and he is a perfect partner.\"</p><p>Munger believes that to judge whether a business is a good business, you need to ask how long can this situation last?</p><p>I only know one way to answer this question, and that is to think about what caused the present situation-and then figure out how long before the driving force for these results will cease to exist.<b>4. When buying stocks in the stock market, what should the stock price be</b></p><p>Having the ability to answer this question explains why some people invest successfully and others don't. \"But then again, if it weren't for a bit of difficulty, everyone would be rich,\" Munger firmly believes.</p><p>Looking at the industry for a long time will give investors better insight in answering this question.</p><p>There used to be a lot of downtown department stores, which seemed invincible. The owner provides customers with a large number of shopping options, strong purchasing power, and also owns the most expensive property in the city. Many tram lines pass by on the corner of the mall. However, over time, private cars became the dominant mode of transportation. The trams disappeared, customers moved to suburbs to live, and shopping malls became the main shopping venue. Some simple changes in our lives can completely change the long-term value of a business.<b>5. Consider redundancy factor</b></p><p>Munger said that although few companies stand tall, every company should be founded expecting to exist for many years. \"Building a dangerous bridge is a crime, but how noble is setting up a fragile company?\" Therefore, Munger believes that the \"redundancy factor\" of enterprises should be considered. Just as when building a bridge, redundancy factor is needed to cope with extreme pressure, the company should also be able to resist the pressure from competitors, economic recessions, oil crises and other natural and man-made disasters. Excessive use of leverage tools or debt will make companies vulnerable to economic storms.</p><p>Many Chinese investors have found that Munger has a spirit and tradition similar to that of traditional Chinese scholar-bureaucrats-he gains wisdom through learning, relies entirely on self-cultivation to achieve business success, adheres to ideals and beliefs, follows moral principles, is rational, honest, optimistic, and full of ultimate concern for society. Reading Munger's biography and getting to know Munger is an unusual journey for us to explore the ways of success in the business society.</p><p><b>Munger's golden sentence:</b></p><p>You definitely have to do business with high caliber people and never wrestle with a pig because if you do you will both get dirty, but the pig will enjoy it.</p><p>The difference between a good business and a bad business is that in a good business, you will make one easy decision after another, while the decisions of a bad business are often extremely painful.</p><p>I am a biographer myself. For example, if you become friends with Adam Smith, you will definitely do economics better. It sounds funny to make friends with great people who have passed away, but if you do this all your life, you will benefit a lot.</p><p>In the final analysis, the investment game is about making more accurate predictions about the future than others. How to do it? One approach is to have this competition in a limited number of regions. If you try to predict the future of everything, you will fail because of your lack of expertise.</p><p>If you want to be smart you have to keep asking why? Why? Why? At the same time, you have to connect the answers to the deep theory of coherence. You have to know those main theories. It's slightly laborious, but full of fun.</p><p>Munger never directs people on exactly what they should do. What he gave the audience was a map where the treasures of wisdom could be found. Only when you truly understand the meaning of the instructions and follow them all the way to the end will the door to the treasure open for you.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JhLeIViECJAVJNuuvMNDPA\">期乐会</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d30d3e4a8c584dc0c7143999338c880","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JhLeIViECJAVJNuuvMNDPA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129199259","content_text":"芒格认为,每个人想参与投资游戏的人都必须了解自己的天性,都必须在考虑自己的边际效用和心理承受能力后才能开始投资。几十年以来,在股神巴菲特的光环背后默默站着一个人,他就是查理·芒格。他们年轻时相识,彼此欣赏,价值观高度一致,巴菲特毫不讳言地说:没有芒格,我会比现在贫穷很多。我对他的感激无以言表。他们是智慧相当的人生合伙人,是51年年复合增长率19.2%的投资奇迹共同的创造者,不同之处在于芒格实在过于低调。每年春天,数以千计的人前往位于内布拉斯加州的奥马哈参加伯克希尔公司的年度股东大会,他们是去看巴菲特的,不过对台上那个坐在巴菲特身边,时不时帮助这位奥马哈智者回答问题的人,他们也非常感兴趣。表演通常是这样进行的:巴菲特先回答问题,时间长短由他决定。临了,他会转向芒格,问道:你还有什么要补充的吗?芒格一动不动地端坐在那里,回答简单而粗率:没什么要补充的。偶尔,芒格基于自身丰富的阅历和经验,也会提出一些观点,然后说上一小段。一旦芒格开口说话,听众们都会全神贯注地听他发表看法。在追寻人生智慧的途中,他不在意自己是否站在聚光灯下。甚至,他希望自己的财富恰好保持在福布斯富豪榜名单的水准之下,这样他就能避开聚光灯,免受公众的关注。巴菲特的长子曾说:我爸是我认识的人中第二聪明的,查理•芒格第一。芒格是一位杰出的投资思想家,但他并非生来如此,他在自己唯一授权的传记《巴菲特幕后智囊:查理·芒格传》一书中,展示了自己思考的细节和成为投资大咖的关键。一、自我提升最重要芒格认为:\"要想赢得第一,就必须占得先机,千万不要原地踏步。我总是刚刚涉足某一业务就比其他人干得都要好。为什么?答案就是通过自学来提高修养,这才是真正行之有效的好主意。\"芒格说的自学,就是永不停歇的自我提升。在这条自我提升之路上,他最看重的有三点:首先,独立思考。他说,如果你在思考过程中完全依赖他人,总是听别人的所谓“专业意见”,一旦你离开自己的小天地,就会大难临头。格雷厄姆是巴菲特的老师,价值投资的开山鼻祖,巴菲特前期投资思想的主要来源。但芒格并不完全认同格雷厄姆,他认为格雷厄姆很多观点无视现实情况。“格雷厄姆思想中有盲点,他没有意识到有的生意值得提前投入。”正是在这一点上,巴菲特认为芒格对他的影响最大,用强大的意志力把他从格雷厄姆有局限性的观点中释放出来,推向了\"以合适价格买优质资产\"这个方向。也正是因为这一点,巴菲特才说,\"没有芒格,我会比现在贫穷很多\"。大家津津乐道的巴菲特购买比亚迪,大赚20多倍的经典投资案例,也是在芒格极力坚持下,巴菲特才做出的决定。\"我很想说投资比亚迪是我的决定,但不是,投资比亚迪不是我的决定,也不是我的投资团队的决定,而是有一天芒格打电话给我说:我们必须投资比亚迪。\"芒格在生活中也绝不盲从专家,他有自己的医生、会计师,他会参考他们的意见,但不会全信。他斟酌他们说的,然后自己研究,最后才得出结论。其次,阅读的作用超乎想象。芒格是一个如饥似渴的读书人,他的房间里、床上、椅子上到处是书,但他并不是一个小说迷,他看的不是商业类、传记类就是历史类或者科技类,都是以事实为基础的。芒格说:\"我对自己为什么要搜集这些信息十分清晰。在开始之前就想好要了解哪些事实,然后去判断所看到的数据是否符合基本概念。大量有目的的阅读可以让人在潜意识里养成一种习惯,把读到的东西和基本概念联系起来,逐渐就会累积起有关投资的智慧。如果没有进行过大量的阅读,不可能成为一个真正出色的投资人。\"芒格认为,阅读商业杂志是一条捷径。巴菲特和我从优秀的商业类杂志中学到的比其他任何地方学到的都要多,只要很快地翻阅一期又一期的杂志,就可以得到各种各样的商业经验,这种方法是如此简单而有效。他说,你要想变得聪明一点,就必须不断地问为什么、为什么、为什么。芒格还是一个传记狂。他认为,要掌握一些行之有效的伟大观念时,最好和伟人的生平和个性结合起来。\"和思路正确的离世伟人交朋友\"听起来滑稽,但是如果一生都这样做,绝对大有裨益。芒格研究过爱因斯坦、达尔文和牛顿的生平和科学著作,不过他最喜欢的离世伟人从来都是富兰克林。芒格欣赏富兰克林是当时美国最好的作家、投资家、科学家、外交家、商人,同时为教育和社会福利事业做出了巨大的贡献。芒格正是从富兰克林那里形成了一种观念:要变得富有才能自由地为人类社会做贡献。\"我从来都对成为一个有用的人兴趣更大,而不是单纯地变得有钱\"。第三,必需的跨学科思维。芒格认为,只有单一学科思维的人,就像只有一把锤子的人。而就像那句著名的谚语说的那样,对只有一把锤子的人来说,任何问题看起来都很像钉子。单一学科思维的人具有很大局限性。而要形成跨学科思维,芒格的建议是,不能苛求每个人对天体力学的掌握达到与拉普拉斯并驾齐驱的地步,也不应苛求普通人在其他知识领域也达到如此精湛的水平。相反,每门学科真正重要的概念并不多,只需要大体了解,就能掌握精髓。而只要掌握学科中最基本的原理和概念,然后不断运用,练习用多种学科思维来解决实际问题,最终就能让自己形成优势。他用自己举例:从来没正经学过心理学,但对心理学有兴趣,进行了一些自学,凭借自学的内容,就在投资和生活中获得了巨大优势;作为法学院的学生,专业学习离自然科学很远,但因为认真学过数学课和物理课,掌握了自然科学的一些思考方法,就获得了整体的思维优势。他说:我从物理学家那里学会了通过寻找最简单、最直接的答案来解决问题。最容易的方法永远都是最好的方法。我又从数学家那里学会了将问题倒过来看,或者从反面去看,反转,再反转。二、在芒格眼里,通往财富自由之路是简单的1.充分了解自己芒格认为,每个人想参与投资游戏的人都必须了解自己的天性,都必须在考虑自己的边际效用和心理承受能力后才能开始投资。如果亏损会让你痛苦——而且有些亏损是不可避免的——那你毕生都应该选择一种非常保守的投资和储蓄方式。你必须将自己的天性和天分融入自己的投资策略中,没有一种普遍适用的投资策略。2.要投好生意在收购喜诗糖果之前,巴菲特和芒格还是捡便宜专业户。\"要是他们再多要10万美元,我们就不会买了,\"芒格说,\"我们当时就是那么愚蠢\"。当他们发现喜诗糖果是一桩出色的生意后,芒格意识到,收购一笔优质业务让它继续运作下去,比买下一家价格很低却在苦苦挣扎的公司,然后费时费力去拯救它要容易和愉快得多。巴菲特说,如果没有买喜诗糖果,那他们可能后面也就不会买可口可乐了。芒格则说:从喜诗糖果我学到了很多:思考和行事方式必须经得起时间的考验。这样的经验让我们在其他地方的收购更为明智,做出了更好的决定。3.要学会判断一门生意是不是好生意芒格对于生意有异乎寻常的准确判断。巴菲特曾经说,\"芒格能比世界上任何人更快更准地分析和评估任何一项交易。他能在60秒内看到所有可能的缺陷,他是一个完美的合伙人。\"芒格认为,要判断一门生意是不是好生意,就需要问这样的情况能持续多久?我只知道一种方法来回答这个问题,那就是思考:是什么造成了现在的局面——然后去弄明白造成这些结果的动力多久后将不复存在。4.在股市里买股票,股价应该是多少是否有能力回答这个问题就解释了为什么有人投资成功而有人没有。\"不过话说回来,要不是这个问题有一点难度的话,每个人都会变得有钱。\"芒格坚定地认为。长期观察行业情况会让投资者在回答这个问题上有更好的洞察力。以前有很多市中心百货商店,看来是不可战胜的。店主为顾客提供大量购物选择、购买力强大,还拥有城里最贵的物业,商场街角多条有轨电车线路经过。然而,随着时间的推移,私家车成了主要的交通模式。有轨电车的轨道消失了,顾客们搬到了郊区居住,购物中心成了主要购物场所。我们生活中一些简单的变化就能完全改变一项业务的长期价值。5.考虑冗余系数芒格说,虽然很少有公司屹立不倒,但是每一家公司都应该在创建的时候预计到要存着许多年。\"造一座危桥是犯罪,成立一家脆弱的公司又何尝高尚?\"所以,芒格认为应该考虑企业的\"冗余系数\",就像修桥的时候,需要冗余系数来应对极端压力,公司也应该能抵抗来自竞争者、经济衰退、石油危机以及其他天灾人祸的压力。过多地运用杠杆工具或欠债都会让公司在经济风暴中脆弱得不堪一击。很多中国投资家发现芒格身上有类似中国传统士大夫的精神和传统——他通过学习获取智慧,完全依靠自身修养获得商业成功,坚守理想和信念,遵循道德准则,理性、诚实、乐观、对社会充满终极关怀。阅读芒格传记,了解芒格,是我们探索商业社会成功方式的一次不同寻常的旅程。芒格金句:你一定要和高水准的人做生意,永远不要和一头猪玩摔跤,因为如果你这么做了,你们两个都会变脏,但是猪会乐在其中。好企业和差企业之间的区别在于,在好企业里你会做出一个接一个的轻松决定,而差企业的决定则常常是痛苦万分的。我本人是一个传记狂,比如你要是和亚当·斯密成了朋友,那你一定会把经济学得更好。跟离世的伟人交朋友,这听起来很滑稽,但如果你一生都这样做,你会受益匪浅。投资游戏说到底就是要比其他人对未来做出更准确的预言。要如何做到呢?一种方法是将这种竞争在有限的几个区域中进行。如果你试图预言所有事情的未来,你会因为缺乏专长而失败。如果你想变得聪明,你就必须不停地问为什么?为什么?为什么?同时你还必须将答案和有条理的深层理论联系起来。你必须知道那些最主要的理论。这稍微会有些费力,但充满乐趣。芒格从不指导人们具体应该做些什么。他交给听众的是一幅能找到智慧宝藏的地图。只有当你真正理解了指令的含义并且一路遵循到底,宝藏的大门才会为你而开。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818632243,"gmtCreate":1630401421282,"gmtModify":1676530292743,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567665939928011","authorIdStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818632243","repostId":"818889793","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":818889793,"gmtCreate":1630395373112,"gmtModify":1676530290260,"author":{"id":"3570515415388899","authorId":"3570515415388899","name":"侃见财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58a85251003e9d3ca730ab71b7738ce8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570515415388899","authorIdStr":"3570515415388899"},"themes":[],"title":"市值突破2.5萬億美元,回購近4500億美元,iPhone13你會買嗎?","htmlText":"時間是優秀企業的朋友,平庸企業的敵人——巴菲特 五年前,當巴菲特第一次買入蘋果公司時,恰逢蘋果<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$</a> 業績出現了拐點,對於巴菲特的操作,華爾街不少分析師認爲,“股神”老矣。五年時間過去了,2018年美股大跌,去年因爲疫情美股大跌,均是蘋果公司挽救了股神的名聲,讓巴菲特不至於在臨近退休的最後幾年裏跌落“神壇”。近期,巴菲特旗下的伯克希爾哈撒韋向美國SEC提交了13F表,文件顯示,伯克希爾哈撒韋公司前三大持倉分別爲蘋果、美國銀行以及美國運通,值得一提的是伯克希爾持有8.87億股蘋果公司股票,佔其持倉比例爲41.45%,而伯克希爾哈撒韋第二大持倉股美國銀行也僅佔其持倉的14.21%,差距明顯。至於巴菲特爲什麼如此偏愛蘋果公司。答案是太賺錢了。段永平曾經說過,不賺錢的生意,多少營業額都沒有用。爲此他還曾舉過一個例子,他說比如你在沒有人煙的地方建一個酒店,花了一億,每年虧500萬,重置成本還是一個億,當下想5000萬出售,誰要?曾經有媒體採訪過巴菲特,問他爲什麼要買入蘋果公司。巴菲特回答道,我並不關心下個季度或者明年的收入情況,因爲報表沒有辦法提供具體的數據,但你知道成千上百萬的用戶離不開它們,那款小小的手機幾乎就是世界上最有價值的資產。蘋果擁有數以億計的用戶,當手機每天都能幫助用戶做各種各樣的事情,這樣貨真價實的資產無異於一筆財富。實際上,如果按照現在的股價計算,五年時間巴菲特在蘋果上至少賺了7倍,其中還不包括每年的分紅。當下,蘋果股價繼續創出了歷史新高,市值超過了2.5萬億美元。當我們回頭來看十年前喬布斯的選擇,實際上沒有人比庫克更爲合適,儘管這十年很多人都質疑,蘋果失去了“靈魂”,其不僅產品價格越來越貴,產品設計也越來越像擠牙膏。2019年,在","listText":"時間是優秀企業的朋友,平庸企業的敵人——巴菲特 五年前,當巴菲特第一次買入蘋果公司時,恰逢蘋果<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$</a> 業績出現了拐點,對於巴菲特的操作,華爾街不少分析師認爲,“股神”老矣。五年時間過去了,2018年美股大跌,去年因爲疫情美股大跌,均是蘋果公司挽救了股神的名聲,讓巴菲特不至於在臨近退休的最後幾年裏跌落“神壇”。近期,巴菲特旗下的伯克希爾哈撒韋向美國SEC提交了13F表,文件顯示,伯克希爾哈撒韋公司前三大持倉分別爲蘋果、美國銀行以及美國運通,值得一提的是伯克希爾持有8.87億股蘋果公司股票,佔其持倉比例爲41.45%,而伯克希爾哈撒韋第二大持倉股美國銀行也僅佔其持倉的14.21%,差距明顯。至於巴菲特爲什麼如此偏愛蘋果公司。答案是太賺錢了。段永平曾經說過,不賺錢的生意,多少營業額都沒有用。爲此他還曾舉過一個例子,他說比如你在沒有人煙的地方建一個酒店,花了一億,每年虧500萬,重置成本還是一個億,當下想5000萬出售,誰要?曾經有媒體採訪過巴菲特,問他爲什麼要買入蘋果公司。巴菲特回答道,我並不關心下個季度或者明年的收入情況,因爲報表沒有辦法提供具體的數據,但你知道成千上百萬的用戶離不開它們,那款小小的手機幾乎就是世界上最有價值的資產。蘋果擁有數以億計的用戶,當手機每天都能幫助用戶做各種各樣的事情,這樣貨真價實的資產無異於一筆財富。實際上,如果按照現在的股價計算,五年時間巴菲特在蘋果上至少賺了7倍,其中還不包括每年的分紅。當下,蘋果股價繼續創出了歷史新高,市值超過了2.5萬億美元。當我們回頭來看十年前喬布斯的選擇,實際上沒有人比庫克更爲合適,儘管這十年很多人都質疑,蘋果失去了“靈魂”,其不僅產品價格越來越貴,產品設計也越來越像擠牙膏。2019年,在","text":"時間是優秀企業的朋友,平庸企業的敵人——巴菲特 五年前,當巴菲特第一次買入蘋果公司時,恰逢蘋果$蘋果(AAPL)$ 業績出現了拐點,對於巴菲特的操作,華爾街不少分析師認爲,“股神”老矣。五年時間過去了,2018年美股大跌,去年因爲疫情美股大跌,均是蘋果公司挽救了股神的名聲,讓巴菲特不至於在臨近退休的最後幾年裏跌落“神壇”。近期,巴菲特旗下的伯克希爾哈撒韋向美國SEC提交了13F表,文件顯示,伯克希爾哈撒韋公司前三大持倉分別爲蘋果、美國銀行以及美國運通,值得一提的是伯克希爾持有8.87億股蘋果公司股票,佔其持倉比例爲41.45%,而伯克希爾哈撒韋第二大持倉股美國銀行也僅佔其持倉的14.21%,差距明顯。至於巴菲特爲什麼如此偏愛蘋果公司。答案是太賺錢了。段永平曾經說過,不賺錢的生意,多少營業額都沒有用。爲此他還曾舉過一個例子,他說比如你在沒有人煙的地方建一個酒店,花了一億,每年虧500萬,重置成本還是一個億,當下想5000萬出售,誰要?曾經有媒體採訪過巴菲特,問他爲什麼要買入蘋果公司。巴菲特回答道,我並不關心下個季度或者明年的收入情況,因爲報表沒有辦法提供具體的數據,但你知道成千上百萬的用戶離不開它們,那款小小的手機幾乎就是世界上最有價值的資產。蘋果擁有數以億計的用戶,當手機每天都能幫助用戶做各種各樣的事情,這樣貨真價實的資產無異於一筆財富。實際上,如果按照現在的股價計算,五年時間巴菲特在蘋果上至少賺了7倍,其中還不包括每年的分紅。當下,蘋果股價繼續創出了歷史新高,市值超過了2.5萬億美元。當我們回頭來看十年前喬布斯的選擇,實際上沒有人比庫克更爲合適,儘管這十年很多人都質疑,蘋果失去了“靈魂”,其不僅產品價格越來越貴,產品設計也越來越像擠牙膏。2019年,在","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ed4a732e1d44b1b42b1b9d7f518c6d","width":"688","height":"470"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21b40452d44defd8c61644aaf7cae691","width":"688","height":"469"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74a5b96d0d10a118c907563164acf907","width":"688","height":"465"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818889793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804915827,"gmtCreate":1627915815969,"gmtModify":1703497873459,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567665939928011","authorIdStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804915827","repostId":"1138385946","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138385946","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627904909,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138385946?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"From the Clinton Era: The Origin, Madness and Bursting of the Internet Bubble","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138385946","media":"张弢看世界","summary":"不要成为真正相信泡沫或者增长可以永远持续而最后一个买入的人。","content":"<p>Author: Zhang Tao</p><p>I remember once when I went to a domestic Internet company for research, I met an American fund manager in his 50s and chatted with him. Even in the US stock market dominated by FAANG, he only bought some profitable Internet companies, similar to Google and Facebook. Even if God is like Amazon, he has never bought it.<b>In fact, the reason is very simple. He is a person who experienced the pain of the Internet bubble in 2000, or he can never understand the Internet model of first losing money and then making profits.</b></p><p>Some people say that a fund manager will definitely experience several crises in his career, and why is it that most American hedge funds can't exceed 20 years? Because most of them have overcome two hurdles in the past 20 years, one is the Internet bubble in 2000, the other is the 2008 financial crisis. There are many books and movies about the financial crisis, the famous ones include The Big Short, Too Big to Fail, etc.<b>But for the Internet bubble, there are actually very few such works, mainly because it is a bubble in a specific industry. After it burst, it didn't have a huge impact on the whole global finance and economy, and the Internet later began to be brilliant, which seems to be an episode.</b>But there is no doubt that the story of the bursting of the Internet bubble is wonderful enough. Maybe the Internet is still thriving later, but those hedge funds that closed their doors because of the bursting of the bubble may be forgotten and become the real losers.</p><p>I recently read some books and articles and did some research,<b>As a summary and commemoration, write something. After all, if we are still in this line, we must accompany or dance with the bubble, hoping to become winners instead of losers in the bubble.</b></p><p><b>Internet Industry Outbreak: The Best Footnote of the Golden Age of the 1990s in the United States</b></p><p>After the end of the Cold War, the United States became the only superpower in the world. Japan was in trouble after the real estate bubble (also a bubble) burst, and the world was facing great changes. Clinton campaign lines<b>The famous \"Stupid, the problem is the economy!\" Let him defeat then President George H.W. Bush in 1992</b>, and ended the 12-year rule of the Republican Party and was elected as the 42nd president of the United States, marking the golden age of the 1990s in the United States.</p><p>During Clinton's administration, he fulfilled his campaign promise, and with the right time, place and people, the 1990s was the peak of the American economy after the 1960s.<b>During the Clinton administration, the average GDP growth rate of the United States was 4.6%, the unemployment rate dropped from over 7% in the 1980s to about 5%, and inflation also dropped from an average of 5.1% in the 1980s to an average of 2.6%. That period was called \"The Fabulous Decade\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e745eabc01a6647663ba9f4d727092b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the technology industry,<b>In 1993, Clinton also announced the \"Action Agenda\", the idea of establishing the National Information Infrastructure of the United States.</b>Familiar top-level design, familiar policy support, how much it is like the story that is happening today decades later.</p><p>Coupled with the success of personal computer companies such as IBM and Dell, personal computers began to become popular among the public, and the sales volume soared. With the popularity of computers,<b>The number of personal computers connected to the Internet increased from 310,000 in 1990 to 43.23 million in 2000, an increase of more than 130 times in 10 years, with a compound growth rate of more than 60%.</b>What an amazing and familiar number. It seems that this number means that this buy can never be wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916155fbed3707499dc9384733188e43\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The establishment of supporting infrastructure, policy support, strong demand, and the curtain of the Internet bubble are slowly opening in these familiar logics.</b></p><p><b>Internet Queen and Netscape</b></p><p>Every industry has a representative figure and a representative company. Similar new energy vehicles must be Elon Musk and Tesla, the mobile Internet is Jobs and Apple, and the Internet in the 1990s was no exception, but in fact<b>The representative company is not IBM and Microsoft, but the entrance to the Internet-the browser company Netscape.</b></p><p>At the same time, in addition to entrepreneurs like Bezos, the icons of the Internet bubble era,<b>Another important figure is Morgan Stanley's Internet analyst Mary Meeker. At the peak of the Internet bubble, this woman who was known as Greenspan and Warren Buffett who could influence Wall Street. She is a well-deserved \"The Queen of. Net\",</b>And the masterpiece that made her famous in World War I is of course a strong recommendation to Netscape.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fed7803678e200af348447fb12500f1\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Mary graduated from the psychology department of DePauw University in 1981, then joined Merrill Lynch as a stockbroker, and after completing her MBA at Cornell University in 1986, she joined Salomon Brothers as a technology industry analyst. At that time, her ideal was actually to become a fund manager. But fate may have known that she was better suited to be a seller, and she joined Morgan Stanley in 1991 as an analyst in the tech industry, beginning a brilliant career.</p><p>Four years after joining Morgan Stanley in 1995, she participated in the IPO of Morgan Stanley's project-the browser Netscape. This was an opportunity to change her life.<b>She also seized it and released a 300-page coverage report on Netscape. This 300-page report was shocking in the 1990s when the Internet was not popular at that time, and it naturally became the bible for all investors to study the Internet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8330a01398b3dbdd1df47bc91533c3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"140\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Her investment logic now is nothing more than Netscape is the entrance to the Internet. With the popularity of personal computers, the Internet will enter thousands of households, and Netscape can make profits by collecting advertising fees, and the market space is huge. What a simple logic that now seems incomparably correct!</b></p><p>And<b>Netscape also lived up to expectations. It rose 86% on the first day of listing, and once rose by more than 154% during the session. Less than one and a half years after the company was founded, the company's founder Jim Clark's net worth reached more than 500 million US dollars</b>, this browser company that marks the entrance to the Internet is similar to the later interpretation of new energy vehicles regarding Tesla as the entrance, and people can't help but be optimistic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5497d3b16b27d69747969fe2b687337\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Because of the success of Netscape, Mary also became famous on Wall Street. Coupled with the IPOs of a large number of Internet companies, Mary became the real queen. In the era when supervision was not so strict, she would help investment banks screen projects, and Internet unlisted companies also hoped to get her favor, so she was able to join the listing plan of investment banks, and because of the steady rise of Internet stocks,<b>She's like a Midas touch, and all the stocks she recommends are on a wild upswing.</b></p><p>What further consolidated her position was that in January 1997, Deutsche Morgan analyst Bill Gurley released a bearish report on Netscape, reminding the risks of Netscape's soaring stock price and downgrading Netscape to a neutral rating. Netscape's stock price fell sharply that day. 20%, and Mary responded two days later, upgrading Netscape from Buy to Strong Buy.<b>And declared that \"if this company (Netscape) dies, it's Bill Gurley's fault\" If this company dies, it's Bill Gurley's fault, Netscape The stock price recovered its lost ground in a few days.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85fcdd32f0f6efc6a8d6a9142d51e040\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After blowing up short Bill, it seems that nothing can stop Mary and Netscape,<b>At its peak, there were 26 Internet analysts working for Mary, and she mainly covered 30 companies.</b>Despite such a huge team, all fund managers only want to see Mary alone, because she is the queen of the Internet. Even when she goes to some investment conferences, someone will say \"Look, that's Mary\".<b>She is no longer an analyst, but a star, someone who can really influence Wall Street.</b></p><p><b>Crazy Market to Bubble Burst</b></p><p>In addition to the Internet Queen, of course, the happiest are the startups in Silicon Valley. During the most prosperous time in Silicon Valley, Highway 101, which connects technology companies on both sides in series, often suffers from traffic jams. I wait in line for an hour or two when I go out to eat, I can't find a parking space during lunch time, and I can't book a hotel when I come on a business trip. Every day, a large number of millionaires are born, and all graduates hope to set up an Internet company to realize their dream of financial freedom.</p><p>In the process of bubble development, venture capital investment in the Internet is also soaring rapidly.<b>The amount of venture capital increased from US $8 billion in 1990 to US $100 billion in 2000. In 1999, 55% of venture capital projects were Internet projects. In 1999, there were more than 150 Internet IPO projects.</b>It can be described as collective carnival.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e5481022453880d077f4a7bf0897d06\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If you pay attention to books describing the history at that time, you can find that if you don't invest in Internet companies in the investment world, you will be abandoned by the torrent of the times. During the Internet bubble period, companies like eBay rose more than 30 times. How can you perform without investing? Outperform your peers. I also wrote such details in \"Hedge Fund Storm Record\",<b>At the investment salon, fund managers who did not buy Internet companies faced ridicule and ridicule from peers, as well as doubts from customers and huge redemption pressure. Even Buffett was regarded as an \"outdated person\" at that time.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5645d1d043f967e134ea3bf9d1971d7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, in the process, we have seen the shadow of the bursting of the bubble. On March 10, 2000, the technology stock price reached its peak, which was also the highest peak in the history of Nasdaq that year.<b>A hedge fund published a Burning Up article in Barron's Weekly in the United States. It surveyed 207 Internet companies and estimated that 51 Internet companies were facing cash flow exhaustion. Based on the rate of burning money at that time, almost all The companies will not last 12 months</b>, Amazon is no exception, and almost at the same time, the stock market began to slide without warning, which may also indicate that the rate of burning money at that time has far exceeded the rate of user growth and revenue growth.</p><p><b>Then came an avalanche. After peaking on March 10, 2000, to the bottom in 2001, the Nasdaq index fell by more than 70%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243dd9552f67ae1a2605d1b0f553b5c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>After the Bubble Burst: Winners and Losers</b></p><p>After the Internet bubble, for the Internet industry, a large number of layoffs and investment suspensions were inevitable. Take the three major domestic portals at that time and Ali as an example. They all encountered the dilemma of investment reduction and the pressure of survival. Many IT practitioners From Before I had four or five offers in my hand to worrying about losing my job. After the bubble burst, from 2000 to 2002,<b>Almost 1,000 Internet companies closed down, more than 3,800 were merged, and most of the online celebrity companies at that time disappeared. Correspondingly, a large number of hedge funds with heavy positions in the Internet closed down after the Internet bubble burst. Most of them were forgotten by history and became real losers.</b></p><p>It is worth mentioning that after the bursting of the bubble, there was also a very dramatic situation, that is, Ravi Suria, an Indian-born analyst of Lehman Brothers, who was bearish on Amazon. He issued several reports believing that Amazon would go bankrupt. Is this situation very similar to Tesla's pessimistic target price of $10 in 2019? Of course, Morgan Stanley was still very smart to leave room, but lowered Tesla's pessimistic target price, while Ravi has been bearish.<b>Ravi also left the sell-side later and is now the investment director of hedge fund Valmiki Capital. He and Amazon may both be regarded as post-bubble winners.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e94edc17afefbefd17babf746a390d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Internet Queen Mary still insisted on her OW (overweight) rating after stocks such as Amazon plummeted by 80%, and explained that people did not understand the long-term logic of the Internet industry. Although she was greatly criticized, she still insisted on her own views, but she was the most optimistic companies, except Netscape, Amazon, eBay and Yahoo, all survived, and Mary regained her fame in 2004 because she participated in Google's IPO. In 2010, Mary, who was already a Managing Director, left Morgan Stanley and began to become a partner of the VC fund Kleiner Perkins to continue her Internet investment career. Later, she invested in bull stocks such as DocuSign and Square. At the same time, she also published Internet trends every year. Reports continue to be known as the \"Internet Queen\".<b>From a historical point of view, the Internet industry has also fulfilled her assumption later. She should be regarded as the winner in the Internet bubble. Although she is not as powerful as she was back then, she still continues to succeed in her career.</b></p><p>Although her opponent Bill Gurley was bearish on Netscape, he was still a pioneer in Internet investment and participated in Amazon's IPO. After leaving the sell-side, he started an investment career. He was a partner of VC Hummer Winlad and invested in<b>Including Uber and becoming a director of the company, his investment performance seems to be more successful than Mary's.</b></p><p>Of course, after this bubble,<b>The only thing that hasn't changed is Warren Buffett who didn't participate in the whole process</b>, Buffett is still the happy old man drinking Coke, can still control the entire Wall Street, and is not \"outdated\" because he missed the Internet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f53918f37649b1a6b887a6569322b1be\" tg-width=\"340\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A little revelation</b></p><p>In fact, after this bubble, I think there are a few things that are certain:</p><p><ol><li><b>The bubble definitely has a reason for its birth and even fundamental support:</b>The strong economy of the United States, the popularity of PCs and policy support are all hotbeds for the whole bubble. No bubble is a nonsense fantasy, and most of them are supported by strong fundamentals;</p><p></li><li><b>The logic of the Internet bubble is not wrong in the long run:</b>Judging from the later human history and the development of the Internet, the logic of the Internet has been fulfilled, even far exceeding expectations. It's just that we are too ahead of the development of the industry, similar to a kite. If we fly too high and too fast, the line will break, so<b>Don't think that if the industry prospect is correct, the high-speed growth bubble of the industry will definitely be digested without bursting.</b>Of course,<b>The bursting of the bubble does not mean that the industry has been completely falsified. If people changed careers because of the bursting of the bubble in 2001, they might be somewhat sorry;</b></p><p></li><li><b>The length and magnitude of a bubble can never be predicted:</b>In 1997, some analysts sang short on Netscape. If you look at it later, it was actually right, but it turned out that this was too early, but it was a big mistake. It continued to consolidate the status of Mary, the goddess of the Internet, so don't guess the top easily. The amplitude of the bubble may be far beyond imagination,<b>The hedge fund that published a research report shorting the Internet in 2000 may just be the one with the best luck;</b></p><p></li><li><b>Bubble bursts always happen inadvertently:</b>Although many so-called reasons can be found to prove that the bursting of the bubble is coming, you can't even find any specific events on the day of the big drop, and the bubble suddenly burst, and the bubble burst as fast as it rose, which exceeded expectations. Looking back, I realized that the financial reports of these companies were so fragile. Why did I believe that these companies could be worth so much money at that time?<b>So while keeping one drunk, be sure to keep one sober.</b></p><p></li></ol>In short, we can find too many similar stories, from Japan's real estate bubble, Taiwan Province's stock market bubble in 1990s, Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997, Internet bubble and 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, there is a certain bubble in the capital market. The current Bitcoin, software SaaS, and new energy vehicles may also be more or less bubbles, but they are indeed the development direction, so bubbles are not poison.</p><p><b>But if we can't understand these bubbles, either we are as determined as Buffett to ignore them at all, or we have to participate in them. Just always remember, don't be the last person to really believe that bubbles or growth can last forever and buy them. After all, even if you are lucky enough, Amazon, which last survived and developed best, was bought at the high in 2000, and it was 7 years later in 2007 to return to the high point before the decline. Can you really resist not cutting meat in the process?</b></p>","source":"lsy1627904959798","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>From the Clinton Era: The Origin, Madness and Bursting of the Internet Bubble</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFrom the Clinton Era: The Origin, Madness and Bursting of the Internet Bubble\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">张弢看世界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 19:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhang Tao</p><p>I remember once when I went to a domestic Internet company for research, I met an American fund manager in his 50s and chatted with him. Even in the US stock market dominated by FAANG, he only bought some profitable Internet companies, similar to Google and Facebook. Even if God is like Amazon, he has never bought it.<b>In fact, the reason is very simple. He is a person who experienced the pain of the Internet bubble in 2000, or he can never understand the Internet model of first losing money and then making profits.</b></p><p>Some people say that a fund manager will definitely experience several crises in his career, and why is it that most American hedge funds can't exceed 20 years? Because most of them have overcome two hurdles in the past 20 years, one is the Internet bubble in 2000, the other is the 2008 financial crisis. There are many books and movies about the financial crisis, the famous ones include The Big Short, Too Big to Fail, etc.<b>But for the Internet bubble, there are actually very few such works, mainly because it is a bubble in a specific industry. After it burst, it didn't have a huge impact on the whole global finance and economy, and the Internet later began to be brilliant, which seems to be an episode.</b>But there is no doubt that the story of the bursting of the Internet bubble is wonderful enough. Maybe the Internet is still thriving later, but those hedge funds that closed their doors because of the bursting of the bubble may be forgotten and become the real losers.</p><p>I recently read some books and articles and did some research,<b>As a summary and commemoration, write something. After all, if we are still in this line, we must accompany or dance with the bubble, hoping to become winners instead of losers in the bubble.</b></p><p><b>Internet Industry Outbreak: The Best Footnote of the Golden Age of the 1990s in the United States</b></p><p>After the end of the Cold War, the United States became the only superpower in the world. Japan was in trouble after the real estate bubble (also a bubble) burst, and the world was facing great changes. Clinton campaign lines<b>The famous \"Stupid, the problem is the economy!\" Let him defeat then President George H.W. Bush in 1992</b>, and ended the 12-year rule of the Republican Party and was elected as the 42nd president of the United States, marking the golden age of the 1990s in the United States.</p><p>During Clinton's administration, he fulfilled his campaign promise, and with the right time, place and people, the 1990s was the peak of the American economy after the 1960s.<b>During the Clinton administration, the average GDP growth rate of the United States was 4.6%, the unemployment rate dropped from over 7% in the 1980s to about 5%, and inflation also dropped from an average of 5.1% in the 1980s to an average of 2.6%. That period was called \"The Fabulous Decade\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e745eabc01a6647663ba9f4d727092b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the technology industry,<b>In 1993, Clinton also announced the \"Action Agenda\", the idea of establishing the National Information Infrastructure of the United States.</b>Familiar top-level design, familiar policy support, how much it is like the story that is happening today decades later.</p><p>Coupled with the success of personal computer companies such as IBM and Dell, personal computers began to become popular among the public, and the sales volume soared. With the popularity of computers,<b>The number of personal computers connected to the Internet increased from 310,000 in 1990 to 43.23 million in 2000, an increase of more than 130 times in 10 years, with a compound growth rate of more than 60%.</b>What an amazing and familiar number. It seems that this number means that this buy can never be wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916155fbed3707499dc9384733188e43\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The establishment of supporting infrastructure, policy support, strong demand, and the curtain of the Internet bubble are slowly opening in these familiar logics.</b></p><p><b>Internet Queen and Netscape</b></p><p>Every industry has a representative figure and a representative company. Similar new energy vehicles must be Elon Musk and Tesla, the mobile Internet is Jobs and Apple, and the Internet in the 1990s was no exception, but in fact<b>The representative company is not IBM and Microsoft, but the entrance to the Internet-the browser company Netscape.</b></p><p>At the same time, in addition to entrepreneurs like Bezos, the icons of the Internet bubble era,<b>Another important figure is Morgan Stanley's Internet analyst Mary Meeker. At the peak of the Internet bubble, this woman who was known as Greenspan and Warren Buffett who could influence Wall Street. She is a well-deserved \"The Queen of. Net\",</b>And the masterpiece that made her famous in World War I is of course a strong recommendation to Netscape.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fed7803678e200af348447fb12500f1\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Mary graduated from the psychology department of DePauw University in 1981, then joined Merrill Lynch as a stockbroker, and after completing her MBA at Cornell University in 1986, she joined Salomon Brothers as a technology industry analyst. At that time, her ideal was actually to become a fund manager. But fate may have known that she was better suited to be a seller, and she joined Morgan Stanley in 1991 as an analyst in the tech industry, beginning a brilliant career.</p><p>Four years after joining Morgan Stanley in 1995, she participated in the IPO of Morgan Stanley's project-the browser Netscape. This was an opportunity to change her life.<b>She also seized it and released a 300-page coverage report on Netscape. This 300-page report was shocking in the 1990s when the Internet was not popular at that time, and it naturally became the bible for all investors to study the Internet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8330a01398b3dbdd1df47bc91533c3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"140\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Her investment logic now is nothing more than Netscape is the entrance to the Internet. With the popularity of personal computers, the Internet will enter thousands of households, and Netscape can make profits by collecting advertising fees, and the market space is huge. What a simple logic that now seems incomparably correct!</b></p><p>And<b>Netscape also lived up to expectations. It rose 86% on the first day of listing, and once rose by more than 154% during the session. Less than one and a half years after the company was founded, the company's founder Jim Clark's net worth reached more than 500 million US dollars</b>, this browser company that marks the entrance to the Internet is similar to the later interpretation of new energy vehicles regarding Tesla as the entrance, and people can't help but be optimistic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5497d3b16b27d69747969fe2b687337\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Because of the success of Netscape, Mary also became famous on Wall Street. Coupled with the IPOs of a large number of Internet companies, Mary became the real queen. In the era when supervision was not so strict, she would help investment banks screen projects, and Internet unlisted companies also hoped to get her favor, so she was able to join the listing plan of investment banks, and because of the steady rise of Internet stocks,<b>She's like a Midas touch, and all the stocks she recommends are on a wild upswing.</b></p><p>What further consolidated her position was that in January 1997, Deutsche Morgan analyst Bill Gurley released a bearish report on Netscape, reminding the risks of Netscape's soaring stock price and downgrading Netscape to a neutral rating. Netscape's stock price fell sharply that day. 20%, and Mary responded two days later, upgrading Netscape from Buy to Strong Buy.<b>And declared that \"if this company (Netscape) dies, it's Bill Gurley's fault\" If this company dies, it's Bill Gurley's fault, Netscape The stock price recovered its lost ground in a few days.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85fcdd32f0f6efc6a8d6a9142d51e040\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After blowing up short Bill, it seems that nothing can stop Mary and Netscape,<b>At its peak, there were 26 Internet analysts working for Mary, and she mainly covered 30 companies.</b>Despite such a huge team, all fund managers only want to see Mary alone, because she is the queen of the Internet. Even when she goes to some investment conferences, someone will say \"Look, that's Mary\".<b>She is no longer an analyst, but a star, someone who can really influence Wall Street.</b></p><p><b>Crazy Market to Bubble Burst</b></p><p>In addition to the Internet Queen, of course, the happiest are the startups in Silicon Valley. During the most prosperous time in Silicon Valley, Highway 101, which connects technology companies on both sides in series, often suffers from traffic jams. I wait in line for an hour or two when I go out to eat, I can't find a parking space during lunch time, and I can't book a hotel when I come on a business trip. Every day, a large number of millionaires are born, and all graduates hope to set up an Internet company to realize their dream of financial freedom.</p><p>In the process of bubble development, venture capital investment in the Internet is also soaring rapidly.<b>The amount of venture capital increased from US $8 billion in 1990 to US $100 billion in 2000. In 1999, 55% of venture capital projects were Internet projects. In 1999, there were more than 150 Internet IPO projects.</b>It can be described as collective carnival.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e5481022453880d077f4a7bf0897d06\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If you pay attention to books describing the history at that time, you can find that if you don't invest in Internet companies in the investment world, you will be abandoned by the torrent of the times. During the Internet bubble period, companies like eBay rose more than 30 times. How can you perform without investing? Outperform your peers. I also wrote such details in \"Hedge Fund Storm Record\",<b>At the investment salon, fund managers who did not buy Internet companies faced ridicule and ridicule from peers, as well as doubts from customers and huge redemption pressure. Even Buffett was regarded as an \"outdated person\" at that time.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5645d1d043f967e134ea3bf9d1971d7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, in the process, we have seen the shadow of the bursting of the bubble. On March 10, 2000, the technology stock price reached its peak, which was also the highest peak in the history of Nasdaq that year.<b>A hedge fund published a Burning Up article in Barron's Weekly in the United States. It surveyed 207 Internet companies and estimated that 51 Internet companies were facing cash flow exhaustion. Based on the rate of burning money at that time, almost all The companies will not last 12 months</b>, Amazon is no exception, and almost at the same time, the stock market began to slide without warning, which may also indicate that the rate of burning money at that time has far exceeded the rate of user growth and revenue growth.</p><p><b>Then came an avalanche. After peaking on March 10, 2000, to the bottom in 2001, the Nasdaq index fell by more than 70%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243dd9552f67ae1a2605d1b0f553b5c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>After the Bubble Burst: Winners and Losers</b></p><p>After the Internet bubble, for the Internet industry, a large number of layoffs and investment suspensions were inevitable. Take the three major domestic portals at that time and Ali as an example. They all encountered the dilemma of investment reduction and the pressure of survival. Many IT practitioners From Before I had four or five offers in my hand to worrying about losing my job. After the bubble burst, from 2000 to 2002,<b>Almost 1,000 Internet companies closed down, more than 3,800 were merged, and most of the online celebrity companies at that time disappeared. Correspondingly, a large number of hedge funds with heavy positions in the Internet closed down after the Internet bubble burst. Most of them were forgotten by history and became real losers.</b></p><p>It is worth mentioning that after the bursting of the bubble, there was also a very dramatic situation, that is, Ravi Suria, an Indian-born analyst of Lehman Brothers, who was bearish on Amazon. He issued several reports believing that Amazon would go bankrupt. Is this situation very similar to Tesla's pessimistic target price of $10 in 2019? Of course, Morgan Stanley was still very smart to leave room, but lowered Tesla's pessimistic target price, while Ravi has been bearish.<b>Ravi also left the sell-side later and is now the investment director of hedge fund Valmiki Capital. He and Amazon may both be regarded as post-bubble winners.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e94edc17afefbefd17babf746a390d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Internet Queen Mary still insisted on her OW (overweight) rating after stocks such as Amazon plummeted by 80%, and explained that people did not understand the long-term logic of the Internet industry. Although she was greatly criticized, she still insisted on her own views, but she was the most optimistic companies, except Netscape, Amazon, eBay and Yahoo, all survived, and Mary regained her fame in 2004 because she participated in Google's IPO. In 2010, Mary, who was already a Managing Director, left Morgan Stanley and began to become a partner of the VC fund Kleiner Perkins to continue her Internet investment career. Later, she invested in bull stocks such as DocuSign and Square. At the same time, she also published Internet trends every year. Reports continue to be known as the \"Internet Queen\".<b>From a historical point of view, the Internet industry has also fulfilled her assumption later. She should be regarded as the winner in the Internet bubble. Although she is not as powerful as she was back then, she still continues to succeed in her career.</b></p><p>Although her opponent Bill Gurley was bearish on Netscape, he was still a pioneer in Internet investment and participated in Amazon's IPO. After leaving the sell-side, he started an investment career. He was a partner of VC Hummer Winlad and invested in<b>Including Uber and becoming a director of the company, his investment performance seems to be more successful than Mary's.</b></p><p>Of course, after this bubble,<b>The only thing that hasn't changed is Warren Buffett who didn't participate in the whole process</b>, Buffett is still the happy old man drinking Coke, can still control the entire Wall Street, and is not \"outdated\" because he missed the Internet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f53918f37649b1a6b887a6569322b1be\" tg-width=\"340\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A little revelation</b></p><p>In fact, after this bubble, I think there are a few things that are certain:</p><p><ol><li><b>The bubble definitely has a reason for its birth and even fundamental support:</b>The strong economy of the United States, the popularity of PCs and policy support are all hotbeds for the whole bubble. No bubble is a nonsense fantasy, and most of them are supported by strong fundamentals;</p><p></li><li><b>The logic of the Internet bubble is not wrong in the long run:</b>Judging from the later human history and the development of the Internet, the logic of the Internet has been fulfilled, even far exceeding expectations. It's just that we are too ahead of the development of the industry, similar to a kite. If we fly too high and too fast, the line will break, so<b>Don't think that if the industry prospect is correct, the high-speed growth bubble of the industry will definitely be digested without bursting.</b>Of course,<b>The bursting of the bubble does not mean that the industry has been completely falsified. If people changed careers because of the bursting of the bubble in 2001, they might be somewhat sorry;</b></p><p></li><li><b>The length and magnitude of a bubble can never be predicted:</b>In 1997, some analysts sang short on Netscape. If you look at it later, it was actually right, but it turned out that this was too early, but it was a big mistake. It continued to consolidate the status of Mary, the goddess of the Internet, so don't guess the top easily. The amplitude of the bubble may be far beyond imagination,<b>The hedge fund that published a research report shorting the Internet in 2000 may just be the one with the best luck;</b></p><p></li><li><b>Bubble bursts always happen inadvertently:</b>Although many so-called reasons can be found to prove that the bursting of the bubble is coming, you can't even find any specific events on the day of the big drop, and the bubble suddenly burst, and the bubble burst as fast as it rose, which exceeded expectations. Looking back, I realized that the financial reports of these companies were so fragile. Why did I believe that these companies could be worth so much money at that time?<b>So while keeping one drunk, be sure to keep one sober.</b></p><p></li></ol>In short, we can find too many similar stories, from Japan's real estate bubble, Taiwan Province's stock market bubble in 1990s, Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997, Internet bubble and 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, there is a certain bubble in the capital market. The current Bitcoin, software SaaS, and new energy vehicles may also be more or less bubbles, but they are indeed the development direction, so bubbles are not poison.</p><p><b>But if we can't understand these bubbles, either we are as determined as Buffett to ignore them at all, or we have to participate in them. Just always remember, don't be the last person to really believe that bubbles or growth can last forever and buy them. After all, even if you are lucky enough, Amazon, which last survived and developed best, was bought at the high in 2000, and it was 7 years later in 2007 to return to the high point before the decline. Can you really resist not cutting meat in the process?</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636920\">张弢看世界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5a09f6f7446acea393f3f94370520cf","relate_stocks":{"QNET":"纳斯达克互联网指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636920","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138385946","content_text":"作者:张弢\n我记得我有次去国内互联网公司调研的时候碰到一个50多岁的美国基金经理,和他聊了下,哪怕在FAANG支配的美股,他也只是买一些盈利的互联网公司,类似谷歌脸书这样,哪怕神如亚马逊这样的股票,他也从来没有买过,其实原因很简单,他是经历过2000年互联网泡沫伤痛的人,或者永远无法理解先亏损后盈利的互联网模式。\n有人说,一个基金经理一定会在自己职业生涯中经历好几次的危机,而为什么大部分美国对冲基金都超不过20年,因为过去20年大部分要迈过两个坎,一个是2000年互联网泡沫,一个是2008年金融危机,对于金融危机的书和电影有很多,著名的包括The Big Short, Too Big to Fail等等,但是对于互联网泡沫,其实这类作品很少,主要还是因为它是特定行业的泡沫,破灭之后并没有对于整个全球金融和经济产生巨大的影响,而且互联网后来又开始辉煌,这似乎是一个小插曲。但无疑互联网泡沫破灭的故事也足够精彩,也许互联网后来还是欣欣向荣,但那些因为泡沫破灭而关门的对冲基金们也许就被人所遗忘成为真正的输家。\n最近看了一些书和文章做了点研究,作为一个总结和纪念写点啥,毕竟我们如果还在这一行,一定与泡沫相伴或者共舞,希望能够成为泡沫里的赢家而不是输家。\n互联网行业爆发:美国90年代黄金时期的最好注脚\n冷战结束之后,美国成为了全球唯一超级大国,日本在房地产泡沫(也是个泡沫)破灭之后陷入了困境,世界面临巨变。克林顿竞选台词那个著名的 “笨蛋,问题是经济!” 让他在1992年击败了时任总统老布什,并且结束了共和党12年的执政当选为美国第42任总统,美国90年代的黄金年代拉开了序幕。\n克林顿执政时期兑现了他的竞选承诺,加上天时地利人和,上个世纪90年代是美国经济继20世纪60年代之后有一个高峰,克林顿执政时期美国GDP平均增速为4.6%,失业率从80年代的超过7%降低到5%左右,通胀也从20世纪80年代的平均5.1%降低到平均2.6%,那个时期被人成为“令人惊艳的十年”(The Fabulous Decade)。\n\n而在科技行业,1993年克林顿也公布了“行动议程”,建立美国国家信息基础设施(National Information Infrastructure)的构想,熟悉的顶层设计,熟悉的政策支持,这多么像几十年后的今天正在发生的故事。\n再加上IBM 和Dell等个人电脑公司的成功,个人电脑开始在大众中普及,销售量大涨,随着计算机的普及,接入互联网的个人计算机的数量从1990年的31万台增加到了2000年的4323万台,10年之间增加了130多倍,复合增长超过60%,又是个多么惊人而熟悉的数字,似乎这个数字就代表这买入永远都不会错误。\n\n配套基础设施的建立,政策的支持,强劲的需求,互联网泡沫的大幕就在这些熟悉的逻辑中徐徐拉开。\n互联网女皇和Netscape\n任何一个行业都有一个代表性的人物和一家代表性的公司,类似新能源汽车一定就是Elon Musk和特斯拉,移动互联网是乔布斯和苹果,而90年代互联网也不例外,但其实代表公司并不是IBM和微软,而是互联网的入口——浏览器公司Netscape(网景公司)。\n同时,互联网泡沫时代的标志人物除了类似Bezos这样的创业者以外,还有一个重要的人物就是Morgan Stanley的互联网分析师Mary Meeker,这个在互联网泡沫巅峰时期被誉为和格林斯潘、沃伦巴菲特一样可以左右华尔街的女人,是当之无愧的“The Queen of .Net”,而让她一战成名的代表作当然就是对Netscape的强烈推荐。\n\nMary在1981年毕业于DePauw大学的心理系,然后加入美林成为一个股票经纪人,在1986年康奈尔大学完成MBA之后加入所罗门兄弟公司成为一名科技行业分析师,当时她的理想实际是成为一名基金经理。但是命运可能知道她更适合做卖方,她于1991年加入Morgan Stanley成为科技行业的分析师,开始了辉煌的职业生涯。\n1995年在加入Morgan Stanley 4年之后,她参与了Morgan Stanley的项目——浏览器Netscape的IPO,这是改变她一生的机会,她也抓住了,并且发布了一篇关于Netscape 300页的覆盖报告,这个300页的报告在当时互联网并没有普及的90年代可想有多么震撼,也理所当然成为所有投资人研究互联网的圣经。\n\n她的投资逻辑现在看无非是Netscape是互联网的入口,随着个人电脑的普及,互联网会进入千家万户,而Netscape可以通过收取广告费而盈利,市场空间巨大。多么朴素而且现在看起来都无比正确的逻辑啊!\n而Netscape也不负众望,在上市首日大涨86%,盘中一度大涨超过154%,在公司成立还不到1年半之后,公司创始人Jim Clark的身家就达到了超过5亿美金,这个标志着互联网入口的浏览器公司就类似后来新能源汽车把特斯拉看作入口的解读一样,无法不让人看好。\n\n而因为Netscape的成功,Mary也在华尔街声名鹊起,加上大量的互联网公司的IPO,Mary成为了真正的女皇,在监管不那么严格的年代她会帮助投行甄别项目,互联网非上市公司也因此希望得到她的垂青,从而能够加入投行的上市计划,而因为互联网股票的节节高升,她就像是点石成金,所有她推荐的股票都在疯狂的上涨中。\n而进一步巩固她地位的是在1997年1月,Deutsche Morgan的分析师Bill Gurley发布了Netscape的看空报告,提示股价狂飙的Netscape的风险并将Netscape下调到中性评级,当天Netscape的股价大跌20%,而Mary在两天之后发出回应,将Netscape从Buy(买入)上调到Strong Buy(强力买入)评级,并且宣称“如果这个公司(Netscape)死了,那就是Bill Gurley的错”(If this company dies, it’s Bill Gurley's fault),Netscape股价几天之后就收复失地。\n\n在打爆空头Bill之后,似乎一切都无法阻挡Mary和Netscape,最巅峰时候,有26个互联网分析师为Mary工作,而她主要覆盖30个公司,尽管有如此庞大的团队,所有的基金经理只想见Mary一个人,因为她是那个互联网的女皇,甚至她去一些投资会议,会有人发出“看,那就是Mary”的感慨,她已经不是一个分析师,而是一个明星,真正可以左右华尔街的人。\n疯狂的市场到泡沫破灭\n除了互联网女皇,当然最开心的是硅谷的创业公司们,在硅谷最繁荣的时间,串联起两旁科技公司的101公路经常大堵车。出门吃饭排一两个小时的队,午饭时间找不到停车位,过来出差定不到旅馆,每天都有大量的百万富翁诞生,所有的毕业生都希望创立一家互联网公司实现财务自由的梦想。\n而在泡沫发展过程中,风险资本投资在互联网也是极速狂飙,风险投资额从1990年的80亿美金增长到2000年的1000亿美金,风险投资在1999年55%项目是互联网项目,1999年有超过150个互联网IPO项目,可谓是集体的狂欢。\n\n如果关注描述当时历史的书,就可以发现在投资界如果你不投互联网公司,你就会被时代洪流抛弃,在互联网泡沫时期,如eBay这样的公司涨幅超过30倍,你不投如何能跑赢同行。在《对冲基金风雨录》也写过这样的细节,在投资沙龙上,没有买互联网公司的基金经理面对同行的奚落和嘲讽,也面对客户的质疑和巨大的赎回压力,甚至巴菲特也在当时被为“过时的人”。\n\n而实际上,在过程中,已经看到了泡沫破灭的阴影,2000年3月10日,科技股价走上顶峰,也是当年纳斯达克的历史最高峰。一家对冲基金在美国《巴伦周刊》中发表了一篇Burning Up的文章,它调研了207家互联网公司,预估51家网络公司现金流面临枯竭,以当时的烧钱速度计算,几乎所有的公司都撑不过12个月,亚马逊也不例外,而几乎同时,股市开始在毫无征兆中滑落,这或许也说明当时烧钱速度已经远远超过用户增长的速度和收入的增长。\n随后就是雪崩,在2000年3月10日触顶之后到2001年底部,Nasdaq指数跌幅超过70%。\n\n泡沫破灭之后:赢家和输家\n互联网泡沫之后,对于互联网行业来说,大量的裁员和投资暂停是不可避免的,就拿国内当时的三大门户和阿里来说,都碰到了投资缩减的困境和生存压力,很多IT从业人员从之前手拿四五份offer到担心失业。泡沫破灭之后,从2000年到2002年,有差不多1000家互联网公司倒闭,超过3800家被兼并,绝大部分当时的网红公司都销声匿迹。与此相对应的,大量的重仓互联网的对冲基金在互联网泡沫破灭之后倒闭,他们大部分都被历史遗忘,成为真正的输家。\n值得一提的是,泡沫破灭之后也出现了非常戏剧化的局面,那就是出现了看空亚马逊的大空头雷曼兄弟的印度裔分析师Ravi Suria,他连发数篇报告认为亚马逊会破产,此情此景是否很像特斯拉在2019年的时候Morgan Stanley汽车分析师的10美金悲观目标价,当然Morgan Stanley还是很聪明的留了余地,只是将特斯拉悲观目标价下调,而Ravi则是一直看空,而2002年亚马逊超预期的业绩也直接打爆Ravi标志着互联网股票的触底,Ravi之后也离开卖方,现在是对冲基金Valmiki Capital的投资总监,他和亚马逊也许都还算是泡沫后的赢家。\n\n互联网女皇Mary则在亚马逊等股票大跌80%之后仍然坚持自己的OW(超配)评级,并且解释说人们并不理解互联网行业长期逻辑,虽然受到巨大非议,仍然坚持自己的看法,不过她最看好的公司,除了Netscape以外,Amazon,eBay和Yahoo都活了下来,而且Mary在2004年因为参与Google的IPO再次让她重获声名。2010年已是Managing Director(董事总经理)的Mary离开Morgan Stanley,开始成为VC基金Kleiner Perkins的合伙人继续互联网投资事业,后来她投资了DocuSign和Square这样的牛股,同时她也还是每年发布互联网的趋势报告继续以“互联网女皇”被人们所知。从历史来看,后面互联网行业也兑现了她的假设,她应该算是互联网泡沫里面的赢家,虽然不至于如当年那么呼风唤雨,但仍然继续事业的成功。\n她的对手Bill Gurley虽然看空了Netscape,但仍然是互联网投资的先锋并且参与了亚马逊的IPO,离开卖方之后开始了投资生涯,是VC Hummer Winlad的合伙人,投资了包括Uber并成为公司董事,他的投资业绩似乎比Mary还要成功。\n当然这次泡沫之后,唯一没有什么改变的就是全程没有参与的沃伦巴菲特,巴菲特还是那个喝着可乐的快乐老头,仍然可以左右整个华尔街,并没有因为错过互联网而“过时”。\n\n一点启示\n其实经过这个泡沫,我觉得有几点可以肯定:\n\n泡沫绝对有它诞生的理由甚至基本面的支撑:美国强劲的经济,PC的普及和政策的支持都是带来整个泡沫的温床,没有什么泡沫是无厘头的幻想,大部分有强劲的基本面支撑;\n互联网泡沫逻辑长期看并没有错:从后来人类历史和互联网发展来看,互联网逻辑都兑现了,甚至远远超过预期,只是我们太领先于行业的发展,类似于风筝,飞的太高太快,线就会断,所以不要认为行业前景正确行业高速增长泡沫就肯定能被消化而不会破灭。当然,泡沫破灭也不代表这个行业完全被证伪,如果在2001年因为泡沫破灭转行的人,可能多少会有点遗憾;\n泡沫的长度和幅度永远无法预测:在1997年就有分析师唱空Netscape,如果后面来看其实是对的,但事实证明这个实在太早,反而大错特错,继续巩固了互联网女神Mary的江湖地位,所以不要去轻易猜顶,泡沫幅度也许远远超过想象,那家在2000年发布调研报告做空互联网的对冲基金也许只是运气最好的那个而已;\n泡沫破灭总是不经意间发生的:虽然可以找到很多所谓的原因,证明泡沫的破灭即将到来,但在大跌当天你甚至找不到任何具体事件,泡沫就突然破灭了,而泡沫破灭速度之快如同上涨时候一样非常超预期,而回头看才发现这些公司的财报是如此的脆弱,当时为什么会相信这些公司可以值这么多钱,所以留一份醉的同时,一定要留一份清醒。\n\n总之,我们可以找到太多太多类似的故事,从日本房地产泡沫,90年代台湾股市泡沫,到97年的东南亚金融危机到互联网泡沫以及08年金融危机。所以资本市场里泡沫是一定的,现在的比特币、软件SaaS、新能源汽车也许也是或多或少的泡沫,但他们也确实是发展方向,所以泡沫并非毒药,\n但如果无法理解这些泡沫,要么我们和巴菲特一样有定力完全不管,要么我们也不得不参与其中,只是永远要记住,不要成为真正相信泡沫或者增长可以永远持续而最后一个买入的人,毕竟就算你足够足够幸运,在2000年高位买入的是最后活下来并且发展最好的亚马逊,回到下跌前的高点也是7年之后的2007年了,你真的能够抗住不在这个过程中割肉吗?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314541405,"gmtCreate":1612364186707,"gmtModify":1704870270384,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567665939928011","authorIdStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"……","listText":"……","text":"……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314541405","repostId":"314818962","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":314818962,"gmtCreate":1612330654052,"gmtModify":1704869804059,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91101bd3142b32495c3131036d5f8afa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514329116425907","authorIdStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"title":"視頻|“女股神”木頭姐如何看待WSB事件?","htmlText":"\n \n \n 昨夜ARK ETF的創始人凱西·伍德接受雅虎財經節目採訪討論了她對Reddit、GameStop、潛在的債券泡沫和賣空者的看法。本期視頻精彩要點如下: Cathie Wood認爲千禧一代(90-00後)比嬰兒潮一代(80後)對股票更感興趣,這也是促成Reddit上形成 WSB效應的一些因素, 她一直都在關注WSB事件,在她看來WSB抱團做多現象是積極的,對股票市場和加密貨幣市場都有積極影響。 她認爲對衝基金在其中並不完全無辜,一個有趣的事情是對衝基金實際上是在協助和教唆這一現象。 WSB導致一些經營困難的公司債券價格提升,AMC是其中典型債券價格已經翻了三倍。 以ARK投資特斯拉爲例,此前埃隆·馬斯克曾嘗試將特斯拉私有化,導致股價大跌,2019年的時候特斯拉股價大跌,市場上看空的聲音很多,但是ARK堅定買入並長期看多特斯拉。後來2020年特斯拉股價大漲,ARK獲利頗豐,到今天,特斯拉依然是ARK最典型的一項投資。 她認爲這輪做空,除對衝基金以外,也有散戶投資者參與其中。現在WSB股票的波動已經到了一種離譜的情況,她會繼續關注下去看是什麼樣的收場。 WSB的最大受益方是銀行,而最終的參與者可能會損失慘重。 關於債券泡沫也值得大家關注,具體貌似沒有深入聊[吃瓜]後面是主持人聊天,沒啥意思,我就不翻了,大家看視頻吧,我繼續幹飯了[真香] 事先聲明:如果翻譯有錯,都是字幕軟件的鍋[正經]爲了提高準確率,這期我都是照着字幕軟件提取的英文翻譯成中字的[流淚]關於ARK Invest介紹:ARK 可以說是特斯拉最著名的多頭支持者之一,並且一直維持對特斯拉的最樂觀長期目標價。ARK Invest 也是極少數能考慮到特斯拉在自動駕駛、全自動駕駛套件,及埃隆·馬斯克 (Elon Musk) 計劃推出的共享出行服務 (Robotaxi net\n \n","listText":"昨夜ARK ETF的創始人凱西·伍德接受雅虎財經節目採訪討論了她對Reddit、GameStop、潛在的債券泡沫和賣空者的看法。本期視頻精彩要點如下: Cathie Wood認爲千禧一代(90-00後)比嬰兒潮一代(80後)對股票更感興趣,這也是促成Reddit上形成 WSB效應的一些因素, 她一直都在關注WSB事件,在她看來WSB抱團做多現象是積極的,對股票市場和加密貨幣市場都有積極影響。 她認爲對衝基金在其中並不完全無辜,一個有趣的事情是對衝基金實際上是在協助和教唆這一現象。 WSB導致一些經營困難的公司債券價格提升,AMC是其中典型債券價格已經翻了三倍。 以ARK投資特斯拉爲例,此前埃隆·馬斯克曾嘗試將特斯拉私有化,導致股價大跌,2019年的時候特斯拉股價大跌,市場上看空的聲音很多,但是ARK堅定買入並長期看多特斯拉。後來2020年特斯拉股價大漲,ARK獲利頗豐,到今天,特斯拉依然是ARK最典型的一項投資。 她認爲這輪做空,除對衝基金以外,也有散戶投資者參與其中。現在WSB股票的波動已經到了一種離譜的情況,她會繼續關注下去看是什麼樣的收場。 WSB的最大受益方是銀行,而最終的參與者可能會損失慘重。 關於債券泡沫也值得大家關注,具體貌似沒有深入聊[吃瓜]後面是主持人聊天,沒啥意思,我就不翻了,大家看視頻吧,我繼續幹飯了[真香] 事先聲明:如果翻譯有錯,都是字幕軟件的鍋[正經]爲了提高準確率,這期我都是照着字幕軟件提取的英文翻譯成中字的[流淚]關於ARK Invest介紹:ARK 可以說是特斯拉最著名的多頭支持者之一,並且一直維持對特斯拉的最樂觀長期目標價。ARK Invest 也是極少數能考慮到特斯拉在自動駕駛、全自動駕駛套件,及埃隆·馬斯克 (Elon Musk) 計劃推出的共享出行服務 (Robotaxi net","text":"昨夜ARK ETF的創始人凱西·伍德接受雅虎財經節目採訪討論了她對Reddit、GameStop、潛在的債券泡沫和賣空者的看法。本期視頻精彩要點如下: Cathie Wood認爲千禧一代(90-00後)比嬰兒潮一代(80後)對股票更感興趣,這也是促成Reddit上形成 WSB效應的一些因素, 她一直都在關注WSB事件,在她看來WSB抱團做多現象是積極的,對股票市場和加密貨幣市場都有積極影響。 她認爲對衝基金在其中並不完全無辜,一個有趣的事情是對衝基金實際上是在協助和教唆這一現象。 WSB導致一些經營困難的公司債券價格提升,AMC是其中典型債券價格已經翻了三倍。 以ARK投資特斯拉爲例,此前埃隆·馬斯克曾嘗試將特斯拉私有化,導致股價大跌,2019年的時候特斯拉股價大跌,市場上看空的聲音很多,但是ARK堅定買入並長期看多特斯拉。後來2020年特斯拉股價大漲,ARK獲利頗豐,到今天,特斯拉依然是ARK最典型的一項投資。 她認爲這輪做空,除對衝基金以外,也有散戶投資者參與其中。現在WSB股票的波動已經到了一種離譜的情況,她會繼續關注下去看是什麼樣的收場。 WSB的最大受益方是銀行,而最終的參與者可能會損失慘重。 關於債券泡沫也值得大家關注,具體貌似沒有深入聊[吃瓜]後面是主持人聊天,沒啥意思,我就不翻了,大家看視頻吧,我繼續幹飯了[真香] 事先聲明:如果翻譯有錯,都是字幕軟件的鍋[正經]爲了提高準確率,這期我都是照着字幕軟件提取的英文翻譯成中字的[流淚]關於ARK Invest介紹:ARK 可以說是特斯拉最著名的多頭支持者之一,並且一直維持對特斯拉的最樂觀長期目標價。ARK Invest 也是極少數能考慮到特斯拉在自動駕駛、全自動駕駛套件,及埃隆·馬斯克 (Elon Musk) 計劃推出的共享出行服務 (Robotaxi net","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314818962","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"a971d82ac9b743ada2fe945038ce6e84","tweetId":"314818962","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/27e1f7ecvodtransgzp1254107296/2585544c5285890813677347121/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/316326daf727020111951106780844fe"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316658138,"gmtCreate":1611931731224,"gmtModify":1704866148648,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567665939928011","authorIdStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316658138","repostId":"316320053","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":316320053,"gmtCreate":1611916856272,"gmtModify":1704865743383,"author":{"id":"3451551789721456","authorId":"3451551789721456","name":"三思期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92ce49aa82ca7a11be1af4fd293beba8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451551789721456","authorIdStr":"3451551789721456"},"themes":[],"title":"空頭節節敗退,散戶即將迎來終局之戰","htmlText":"本文首發於公衆號:三思期權 感謝大家對我們上一篇文章<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/313256601\" target=\"_blank\">《散戶如何用期權拉爆百億美元對衝基金》</a>的喜愛。我們雖然熬夜逐字逐句修改文章,推敲邏輯,最後被大家認可讓我們非常感動。感謝那些打賞,點贊,轉發,給我們留言鼓勵的讀者。另外,我們也收到了非常多的讀者留言,希望我們跟蹤事態的發展,那我們就繼續熬一個夜,爲大家奉上最新的事態發展。 昨夜GME的多空爭奪進入了白熱化。股價盤後從147離譜的跳漲到215,誰知道今天更是被被拉到375。短短三天之內這個本已經處於高位的股票又被拉昇了三倍。 週二GME股票的交易量達到200億美金,小小的一個線下游戲股交易額竟然超過了蘋果特斯拉!爲什麼今天漲幅這麼高,交易量這麼大?今天誰又賺錢了?誰又爆倉了? 1. 多頭增援 從昨天截稿之後,讓市場意想不到的是多頭竟然出現了重量級的支援。Chamath Palihapitiya 在推特上宣佈買入5萬張行權價爲$115的2月看漲合約之後,燃爆了原本已經非常亢奮的WSB。 這位Chamath是一位斯里蘭卡裔的美籍投資人,作爲臉書的早期員工,2021年離開時已經完成了人生小目標。隨後建立了自己的風投公司,做的也是風生水起,連中幾個獨角獸! 除此之外,他2012年就買3百萬美金的比特幣,隨後也重倉買入特斯拉,並在CNBC上公開懟當時就在做空的Jim Chanos(這位對衝基金Kynikos的創始人,在做空特斯拉5年後,平了股票空頭,慘敗收場,目前只買看跌期權,謹慎做空)。可見他對比特幣空頭,股票空頭早就有了深深的偏見。他重度參與多個SPAC(Special Purpose Acquisation Company 特殊目的收購公司)也是飽受爭議。 多了個有資歷,有聲望,有米的眼光獨到的成功投資人的","listText":"本文首發於公衆號:三思期權 感謝大家對我們上一篇文章<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/313256601\" target=\"_blank\">《散戶如何用期權拉爆百億美元對衝基金》</a>的喜愛。我們雖然熬夜逐字逐句修改文章,推敲邏輯,最後被大家認可讓我們非常感動。感謝那些打賞,點贊,轉發,給我們留言鼓勵的讀者。另外,我們也收到了非常多的讀者留言,希望我們跟蹤事態的發展,那我們就繼續熬一個夜,爲大家奉上最新的事態發展。 昨夜GME的多空爭奪進入了白熱化。股價盤後從147離譜的跳漲到215,誰知道今天更是被被拉到375。短短三天之內這個本已經處於高位的股票又被拉昇了三倍。 週二GME股票的交易量達到200億美金,小小的一個線下游戲股交易額竟然超過了蘋果特斯拉!爲什麼今天漲幅這麼高,交易量這麼大?今天誰又賺錢了?誰又爆倉了? 1. 多頭增援 從昨天截稿之後,讓市場意想不到的是多頭竟然出現了重量級的支援。Chamath Palihapitiya 在推特上宣佈買入5萬張行權價爲$115的2月看漲合約之後,燃爆了原本已經非常亢奮的WSB。 這位Chamath是一位斯里蘭卡裔的美籍投資人,作爲臉書的早期員工,2021年離開時已經完成了人生小目標。隨後建立了自己的風投公司,做的也是風生水起,連中幾個獨角獸! 除此之外,他2012年就買3百萬美金的比特幣,隨後也重倉買入特斯拉,並在CNBC上公開懟當時就在做空的Jim Chanos(這位對衝基金Kynikos的創始人,在做空特斯拉5年後,平了股票空頭,慘敗收場,目前只買看跌期權,謹慎做空)。可見他對比特幣空頭,股票空頭早就有了深深的偏見。他重度參與多個SPAC(Special Purpose Acquisation Company 特殊目的收購公司)也是飽受爭議。 多了個有資歷,有聲望,有米的眼光獨到的成功投資人的","text":"本文首發於公衆號:三思期權 感謝大家對我們上一篇文章《散戶如何用期權拉爆百億美元對衝基金》的喜愛。我們雖然熬夜逐字逐句修改文章,推敲邏輯,最後被大家認可讓我們非常感動。感謝那些打賞,點贊,轉發,給我們留言鼓勵的讀者。另外,我們也收到了非常多的讀者留言,希望我們跟蹤事態的發展,那我們就繼續熬一個夜,爲大家奉上最新的事態發展。 昨夜GME的多空爭奪進入了白熱化。股價盤後從147離譜的跳漲到215,誰知道今天更是被被拉到375。短短三天之內這個本已經處於高位的股票又被拉昇了三倍。 週二GME股票的交易量達到200億美金,小小的一個線下游戲股交易額竟然超過了蘋果特斯拉!爲什麼今天漲幅這麼高,交易量這麼大?今天誰又賺錢了?誰又爆倉了? 1. 多頭增援 從昨天截稿之後,讓市場意想不到的是多頭竟然出現了重量級的支援。Chamath Palihapitiya 在推特上宣佈買入5萬張行權價爲$115的2月看漲合約之後,燃爆了原本已經非常亢奮的WSB。 這位Chamath是一位斯里蘭卡裔的美籍投資人,作爲臉書的早期員工,2021年離開時已經完成了人生小目標。隨後建立了自己的風投公司,做的也是風生水起,連中幾個獨角獸! 除此之外,他2012年就買3百萬美金的比特幣,隨後也重倉買入特斯拉,並在CNBC上公開懟當時就在做空的Jim Chanos(這位對衝基金Kynikos的創始人,在做空特斯拉5年後,平了股票空頭,慘敗收場,目前只買看跌期權,謹慎做空)。可見他對比特幣空頭,股票空頭早就有了深深的偏見。他重度參與多個SPAC(Special Purpose Acquisation Company 特殊目的收購公司)也是飽受爭議。 多了個有資歷,有聲望,有米的眼光獨到的成功投資人的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/092a3ca18a2138419802590530a1e0a1","width":"485","height":"402"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffbc899a3966bf31234982e91a7f7658","width":"742","height":"473"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/060d3acdd2e367be4278c52a1bc4cf4d","width":"933","height":"616"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316320053","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":332989896,"gmtCreate":1610274534515,"gmtModify":1704982825075,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567665939928011","authorIdStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332989896","repostId":"338504310","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":338504310,"gmtCreate":1609927451125,"gmtModify":1704980896878,"author":{"id":"3569899433800417","authorId":"3569899433800417","name":"Alan聊特斯拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e551c513d687d0c7013cce40c61bdb7a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899433800417","authorIdStr":"3569899433800417"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"\n \n \n Vincent 採訪濃縮版,上調目標價810,新高還能買?\n \n","listText":"Vincent 採訪濃縮版,上調目標價810,新高還能買?","text":"Vincent 採訪濃縮版,上調目標價810,新高還能買?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/338504310","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"bf6137a68c084cec92a620bc2fe84e75","tweetId":"338504310","title":"$750 还能买吗?大摩上调目标价$810, Vincent 采访浓缩版,Model Y 毛利30%代表啥","videoUrl":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/160992744743159389732b2d783d19083a59c200b16b1.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e00f315ebb30a26b4866d197c14e9e17","shareLink":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/160992744743159389732b2d783d19083a59c200b16b1.mp4"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336644632,"gmtCreate":1610096725626,"gmtModify":1704982087619,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567665939928011","authorIdStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336644632","repostId":"338869660","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":338869660,"gmtCreate":1609864391250,"gmtModify":1704980558721,"author":{"id":"3555926517215344","authorId":"3555926517215344","name":"走马财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e421cf207f1b9b3827a49f1d17bead5a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555926517215344","authorIdStr":"3555926517215344"},"themes":[],"title":"馬斯克:我的房子賣給了中國人 未來想葬在火星(上)","htmlText":"近日,Business Insider雜誌母公司Axel Springer的首席執行官Mathias Döpfner與<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> CEO埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)會面,討論了爲什麼馬斯克的電動汽車公司會走在無人駕駛汽車革命的最前沿,以及他開啓太空探索的雄心壯志。由於老虎發文限制在10000字以內,本文全文16000字,所以只能分上下兩篇發出。這次採訪中,馬斯克談到了很多領域,觀點一如既往的犀利。*談新冠病毒,他認爲醫學的未來是mRNA,基本上你可以用mRNA治癒一切,它就像一個計算機程序,你可以對它進行編程以執行所需的任何操作。你實際上可以變成一隻蝴蝶。*談競爭,他說特斯拉的目標是加速可持續能源時代的到來,不在於建立護城河之類的東西。特斯拉將向其它公司提供自動駕駛技術許可,幫助它們做正確的事。*談收購,他說特斯拉不想發起敵意收購。如果其它公司找過來,那麼我們也會考慮。*談銷售目標,他說特斯拉未來10年的目標是每年賣出2000萬輛車。*談自動駕駛,他說我非常有信心特斯拉明年將達到L5級,100%。*談財富,他說我賣掉了幾乎所有的房產,只爲了更專注於實現人生目標,他租房住,有時睡工廠裏。*而他最重要的目標之一,就是幫助人類成爲跨星球物種,幫助人類從地球文明跨越到太空文明,所以SpaceX至關重要。以下是訪談全文實錄。Mathias Döpfner:睿智的德國政治家Wolfgang Schauble曾說:“如果我們的憲法中有一條底線,那就是人的尊嚴。這是神聖不可侵犯的。但這並不意味着我們可以避開死亡。”馬斯克:是的,每個人都會死。Döpfner:每個人都會死,但是尊嚴是應該被保護的,即使是在新冠時期。在被感染期間,你是否改變了對病毒的看法?","listText":"近日,Business Insider雜誌母公司Axel Springer的首席執行官Mathias Döpfner與<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> CEO埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)會面,討論了爲什麼馬斯克的電動汽車公司會走在無人駕駛汽車革命的最前沿,以及他開啓太空探索的雄心壯志。由於老虎發文限制在10000字以內,本文全文16000字,所以只能分上下兩篇發出。這次採訪中,馬斯克談到了很多領域,觀點一如既往的犀利。*談新冠病毒,他認爲醫學的未來是mRNA,基本上你可以用mRNA治癒一切,它就像一個計算機程序,你可以對它進行編程以執行所需的任何操作。你實際上可以變成一隻蝴蝶。*談競爭,他說特斯拉的目標是加速可持續能源時代的到來,不在於建立護城河之類的東西。特斯拉將向其它公司提供自動駕駛技術許可,幫助它們做正確的事。*談收購,他說特斯拉不想發起敵意收購。如果其它公司找過來,那麼我們也會考慮。*談銷售目標,他說特斯拉未來10年的目標是每年賣出2000萬輛車。*談自動駕駛,他說我非常有信心特斯拉明年將達到L5級,100%。*談財富,他說我賣掉了幾乎所有的房產,只爲了更專注於實現人生目標,他租房住,有時睡工廠裏。*而他最重要的目標之一,就是幫助人類成爲跨星球物種,幫助人類從地球文明跨越到太空文明,所以SpaceX至關重要。以下是訪談全文實錄。Mathias Döpfner:睿智的德國政治家Wolfgang Schauble曾說:“如果我們的憲法中有一條底線,那就是人的尊嚴。這是神聖不可侵犯的。但這並不意味着我們可以避開死亡。”馬斯克:是的,每個人都會死。Döpfner:每個人都會死,但是尊嚴是應該被保護的,即使是在新冠時期。在被感染期間,你是否改變了對病毒的看法?","text":"近日,Business Insider雜誌母公司Axel Springer的首席執行官Mathias Döpfner與$特斯拉(TSLA)$ CEO埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)會面,討論了爲什麼馬斯克的電動汽車公司會走在無人駕駛汽車革命的最前沿,以及他開啓太空探索的雄心壯志。由於老虎發文限制在10000字以內,本文全文16000字,所以只能分上下兩篇發出。這次採訪中,馬斯克談到了很多領域,觀點一如既往的犀利。*談新冠病毒,他認爲醫學的未來是mRNA,基本上你可以用mRNA治癒一切,它就像一個計算機程序,你可以對它進行編程以執行所需的任何操作。你實際上可以變成一隻蝴蝶。*談競爭,他說特斯拉的目標是加速可持續能源時代的到來,不在於建立護城河之類的東西。特斯拉將向其它公司提供自動駕駛技術許可,幫助它們做正確的事。*談收購,他說特斯拉不想發起敵意收購。如果其它公司找過來,那麼我們也會考慮。*談銷售目標,他說特斯拉未來10年的目標是每年賣出2000萬輛車。*談自動駕駛,他說我非常有信心特斯拉明年將達到L5級,100%。*談財富,他說我賣掉了幾乎所有的房產,只爲了更專注於實現人生目標,他租房住,有時睡工廠裏。*而他最重要的目標之一,就是幫助人類成爲跨星球物種,幫助人類從地球文明跨越到太空文明,所以SpaceX至關重要。以下是訪談全文實錄。Mathias Döpfner:睿智的德國政治家Wolfgang Schauble曾說:“如果我們的憲法中有一條底線,那就是人的尊嚴。這是神聖不可侵犯的。但這並不意味着我們可以避開死亡。”馬斯克:是的,每個人都會死。Döpfner:每個人都會死,但是尊嚴是應該被保護的,即使是在新冠時期。在被感染期間,你是否改變了對病毒的看法?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58db2eff098cbcad9314e7898bec7c35","width":"688","height":"450"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/338869660","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":818632243,"gmtCreate":1630401421282,"gmtModify":1676530292743,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567665939928011","idStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818632243","repostId":"818889793","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":818889793,"gmtCreate":1630395373112,"gmtModify":1676530290260,"author":{"id":"3570515415388899","authorId":"3570515415388899","name":"侃见财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58a85251003e9d3ca730ab71b7738ce8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570515415388899","idStr":"3570515415388899"},"themes":[],"title":"市值突破2.5萬億美元,回購近4500億美元,iPhone13你會買嗎?","htmlText":"時間是優秀企業的朋友,平庸企業的敵人——巴菲特 五年前,當巴菲特第一次買入蘋果公司時,恰逢蘋果<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$</a> 業績出現了拐點,對於巴菲特的操作,華爾街不少分析師認爲,“股神”老矣。五年時間過去了,2018年美股大跌,去年因爲疫情美股大跌,均是蘋果公司挽救了股神的名聲,讓巴菲特不至於在臨近退休的最後幾年裏跌落“神壇”。近期,巴菲特旗下的伯克希爾哈撒韋向美國SEC提交了13F表,文件顯示,伯克希爾哈撒韋公司前三大持倉分別爲蘋果、美國銀行以及美國運通,值得一提的是伯克希爾持有8.87億股蘋果公司股票,佔其持倉比例爲41.45%,而伯克希爾哈撒韋第二大持倉股美國銀行也僅佔其持倉的14.21%,差距明顯。至於巴菲特爲什麼如此偏愛蘋果公司。答案是太賺錢了。段永平曾經說過,不賺錢的生意,多少營業額都沒有用。爲此他還曾舉過一個例子,他說比如你在沒有人煙的地方建一個酒店,花了一億,每年虧500萬,重置成本還是一個億,當下想5000萬出售,誰要?曾經有媒體採訪過巴菲特,問他爲什麼要買入蘋果公司。巴菲特回答道,我並不關心下個季度或者明年的收入情況,因爲報表沒有辦法提供具體的數據,但你知道成千上百萬的用戶離不開它們,那款小小的手機幾乎就是世界上最有價值的資產。蘋果擁有數以億計的用戶,當手機每天都能幫助用戶做各種各樣的事情,這樣貨真價實的資產無異於一筆財富。實際上,如果按照現在的股價計算,五年時間巴菲特在蘋果上至少賺了7倍,其中還不包括每年的分紅。當下,蘋果股價繼續創出了歷史新高,市值超過了2.5萬億美元。當我們回頭來看十年前喬布斯的選擇,實際上沒有人比庫克更爲合適,儘管這十年很多人都質疑,蘋果失去了“靈魂”,其不僅產品價格越來越貴,產品設計也越來越像擠牙膏。2019年,在","listText":"時間是優秀企業的朋友,平庸企業的敵人——巴菲特 五年前,當巴菲特第一次買入蘋果公司時,恰逢蘋果<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$</a> 業績出現了拐點,對於巴菲特的操作,華爾街不少分析師認爲,“股神”老矣。五年時間過去了,2018年美股大跌,去年因爲疫情美股大跌,均是蘋果公司挽救了股神的名聲,讓巴菲特不至於在臨近退休的最後幾年裏跌落“神壇”。近期,巴菲特旗下的伯克希爾哈撒韋向美國SEC提交了13F表,文件顯示,伯克希爾哈撒韋公司前三大持倉分別爲蘋果、美國銀行以及美國運通,值得一提的是伯克希爾持有8.87億股蘋果公司股票,佔其持倉比例爲41.45%,而伯克希爾哈撒韋第二大持倉股美國銀行也僅佔其持倉的14.21%,差距明顯。至於巴菲特爲什麼如此偏愛蘋果公司。答案是太賺錢了。段永平曾經說過,不賺錢的生意,多少營業額都沒有用。爲此他還曾舉過一個例子,他說比如你在沒有人煙的地方建一個酒店,花了一億,每年虧500萬,重置成本還是一個億,當下想5000萬出售,誰要?曾經有媒體採訪過巴菲特,問他爲什麼要買入蘋果公司。巴菲特回答道,我並不關心下個季度或者明年的收入情況,因爲報表沒有辦法提供具體的數據,但你知道成千上百萬的用戶離不開它們,那款小小的手機幾乎就是世界上最有價值的資產。蘋果擁有數以億計的用戶,當手機每天都能幫助用戶做各種各樣的事情,這樣貨真價實的資產無異於一筆財富。實際上,如果按照現在的股價計算,五年時間巴菲特在蘋果上至少賺了7倍,其中還不包括每年的分紅。當下,蘋果股價繼續創出了歷史新高,市值超過了2.5萬億美元。當我們回頭來看十年前喬布斯的選擇,實際上沒有人比庫克更爲合適,儘管這十年很多人都質疑,蘋果失去了“靈魂”,其不僅產品價格越來越貴,產品設計也越來越像擠牙膏。2019年,在","text":"時間是優秀企業的朋友,平庸企業的敵人——巴菲特 五年前,當巴菲特第一次買入蘋果公司時,恰逢蘋果$蘋果(AAPL)$ 業績出現了拐點,對於巴菲特的操作,華爾街不少分析師認爲,“股神”老矣。五年時間過去了,2018年美股大跌,去年因爲疫情美股大跌,均是蘋果公司挽救了股神的名聲,讓巴菲特不至於在臨近退休的最後幾年裏跌落“神壇”。近期,巴菲特旗下的伯克希爾哈撒韋向美國SEC提交了13F表,文件顯示,伯克希爾哈撒韋公司前三大持倉分別爲蘋果、美國銀行以及美國運通,值得一提的是伯克希爾持有8.87億股蘋果公司股票,佔其持倉比例爲41.45%,而伯克希爾哈撒韋第二大持倉股美國銀行也僅佔其持倉的14.21%,差距明顯。至於巴菲特爲什麼如此偏愛蘋果公司。答案是太賺錢了。段永平曾經說過,不賺錢的生意,多少營業額都沒有用。爲此他還曾舉過一個例子,他說比如你在沒有人煙的地方建一個酒店,花了一億,每年虧500萬,重置成本還是一個億,當下想5000萬出售,誰要?曾經有媒體採訪過巴菲特,問他爲什麼要買入蘋果公司。巴菲特回答道,我並不關心下個季度或者明年的收入情況,因爲報表沒有辦法提供具體的數據,但你知道成千上百萬的用戶離不開它們,那款小小的手機幾乎就是世界上最有價值的資產。蘋果擁有數以億計的用戶,當手機每天都能幫助用戶做各種各樣的事情,這樣貨真價實的資產無異於一筆財富。實際上,如果按照現在的股價計算,五年時間巴菲特在蘋果上至少賺了7倍,其中還不包括每年的分紅。當下,蘋果股價繼續創出了歷史新高,市值超過了2.5萬億美元。當我們回頭來看十年前喬布斯的選擇,實際上沒有人比庫克更爲合適,儘管這十年很多人都質疑,蘋果失去了“靈魂”,其不僅產品價格越來越貴,產品設計也越來越像擠牙膏。2019年,在","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ed4a732e1d44b1b42b1b9d7f518c6d","width":"688","height":"470"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21b40452d44defd8c61644aaf7cae691","width":"688","height":"469"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74a5b96d0d10a118c907563164acf907","width":"688","height":"465"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818889793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804915827,"gmtCreate":1627915815969,"gmtModify":1703497873459,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567665939928011","idStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804915827","repostId":"1138385946","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138385946","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627904909,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138385946?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"From the Clinton Era: The Origin, Madness and Bursting of the Internet Bubble","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138385946","media":"张弢看世界","summary":"不要成为真正相信泡沫或者增长可以永远持续而最后一个买入的人。","content":"<p>Author: Zhang Tao</p><p>I remember once when I went to a domestic Internet company for research, I met an American fund manager in his 50s and chatted with him. Even in the US stock market dominated by FAANG, he only bought some profitable Internet companies, similar to Google and Facebook. Even if God is like Amazon, he has never bought it.<b>In fact, the reason is very simple. He is a person who experienced the pain of the Internet bubble in 2000, or he can never understand the Internet model of first losing money and then making profits.</b></p><p>Some people say that a fund manager will definitely experience several crises in his career, and why is it that most American hedge funds can't exceed 20 years? Because most of them have overcome two hurdles in the past 20 years, one is the Internet bubble in 2000, the other is the 2008 financial crisis. There are many books and movies about the financial crisis, the famous ones include The Big Short, Too Big to Fail, etc.<b>But for the Internet bubble, there are actually very few such works, mainly because it is a bubble in a specific industry. After it burst, it didn't have a huge impact on the whole global finance and economy, and the Internet later began to be brilliant, which seems to be an episode.</b>But there is no doubt that the story of the bursting of the Internet bubble is wonderful enough. Maybe the Internet is still thriving later, but those hedge funds that closed their doors because of the bursting of the bubble may be forgotten and become the real losers.</p><p>I recently read some books and articles and did some research,<b>As a summary and commemoration, write something. After all, if we are still in this line, we must accompany or dance with the bubble, hoping to become winners instead of losers in the bubble.</b></p><p><b>Internet Industry Outbreak: The Best Footnote of the Golden Age of the 1990s in the United States</b></p><p>After the end of the Cold War, the United States became the only superpower in the world. Japan was in trouble after the real estate bubble (also a bubble) burst, and the world was facing great changes. Clinton campaign lines<b>The famous \"Stupid, the problem is the economy!\" Let him defeat then President George H.W. Bush in 1992</b>, and ended the 12-year rule of the Republican Party and was elected as the 42nd president of the United States, marking the golden age of the 1990s in the United States.</p><p>During Clinton's administration, he fulfilled his campaign promise, and with the right time, place and people, the 1990s was the peak of the American economy after the 1960s.<b>During the Clinton administration, the average GDP growth rate of the United States was 4.6%, the unemployment rate dropped from over 7% in the 1980s to about 5%, and inflation also dropped from an average of 5.1% in the 1980s to an average of 2.6%. That period was called \"The Fabulous Decade\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e745eabc01a6647663ba9f4d727092b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the technology industry,<b>In 1993, Clinton also announced the \"Action Agenda\", the idea of establishing the National Information Infrastructure of the United States.</b>Familiar top-level design, familiar policy support, how much it is like the story that is happening today decades later.</p><p>Coupled with the success of personal computer companies such as IBM and Dell, personal computers began to become popular among the public, and the sales volume soared. With the popularity of computers,<b>The number of personal computers connected to the Internet increased from 310,000 in 1990 to 43.23 million in 2000, an increase of more than 130 times in 10 years, with a compound growth rate of more than 60%.</b>What an amazing and familiar number. It seems that this number means that this buy can never be wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916155fbed3707499dc9384733188e43\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The establishment of supporting infrastructure, policy support, strong demand, and the curtain of the Internet bubble are slowly opening in these familiar logics.</b></p><p><b>Internet Queen and Netscape</b></p><p>Every industry has a representative figure and a representative company. Similar new energy vehicles must be Elon Musk and Tesla, the mobile Internet is Jobs and Apple, and the Internet in the 1990s was no exception, but in fact<b>The representative company is not IBM and Microsoft, but the entrance to the Internet-the browser company Netscape.</b></p><p>At the same time, in addition to entrepreneurs like Bezos, the icons of the Internet bubble era,<b>Another important figure is Morgan Stanley's Internet analyst Mary Meeker. At the peak of the Internet bubble, this woman who was known as Greenspan and Warren Buffett who could influence Wall Street. She is a well-deserved \"The Queen of. Net\",</b>And the masterpiece that made her famous in World War I is of course a strong recommendation to Netscape.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fed7803678e200af348447fb12500f1\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Mary graduated from the psychology department of DePauw University in 1981, then joined Merrill Lynch as a stockbroker, and after completing her MBA at Cornell University in 1986, she joined Salomon Brothers as a technology industry analyst. At that time, her ideal was actually to become a fund manager. But fate may have known that she was better suited to be a seller, and she joined Morgan Stanley in 1991 as an analyst in the tech industry, beginning a brilliant career.</p><p>Four years after joining Morgan Stanley in 1995, she participated in the IPO of Morgan Stanley's project-the browser Netscape. This was an opportunity to change her life.<b>She also seized it and released a 300-page coverage report on Netscape. This 300-page report was shocking in the 1990s when the Internet was not popular at that time, and it naturally became the bible for all investors to study the Internet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8330a01398b3dbdd1df47bc91533c3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"140\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Her investment logic now is nothing more than Netscape is the entrance to the Internet. With the popularity of personal computers, the Internet will enter thousands of households, and Netscape can make profits by collecting advertising fees, and the market space is huge. What a simple logic that now seems incomparably correct!</b></p><p>And<b>Netscape also lived up to expectations. It rose 86% on the first day of listing, and once rose by more than 154% during the session. Less than one and a half years after the company was founded, the company's founder Jim Clark's net worth reached more than 500 million US dollars</b>, this browser company that marks the entrance to the Internet is similar to the later interpretation of new energy vehicles regarding Tesla as the entrance, and people can't help but be optimistic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5497d3b16b27d69747969fe2b687337\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Because of the success of Netscape, Mary also became famous on Wall Street. Coupled with the IPOs of a large number of Internet companies, Mary became the real queen. In the era when supervision was not so strict, she would help investment banks screen projects, and Internet unlisted companies also hoped to get her favor, so she was able to join the listing plan of investment banks, and because of the steady rise of Internet stocks,<b>She's like a Midas touch, and all the stocks she recommends are on a wild upswing.</b></p><p>What further consolidated her position was that in January 1997, Deutsche Morgan analyst Bill Gurley released a bearish report on Netscape, reminding the risks of Netscape's soaring stock price and downgrading Netscape to a neutral rating. Netscape's stock price fell sharply that day. 20%, and Mary responded two days later, upgrading Netscape from Buy to Strong Buy.<b>And declared that \"if this company (Netscape) dies, it's Bill Gurley's fault\" If this company dies, it's Bill Gurley's fault, Netscape The stock price recovered its lost ground in a few days.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85fcdd32f0f6efc6a8d6a9142d51e040\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After blowing up short Bill, it seems that nothing can stop Mary and Netscape,<b>At its peak, there were 26 Internet analysts working for Mary, and she mainly covered 30 companies.</b>Despite such a huge team, all fund managers only want to see Mary alone, because she is the queen of the Internet. Even when she goes to some investment conferences, someone will say \"Look, that's Mary\".<b>She is no longer an analyst, but a star, someone who can really influence Wall Street.</b></p><p><b>Crazy Market to Bubble Burst</b></p><p>In addition to the Internet Queen, of course, the happiest are the startups in Silicon Valley. During the most prosperous time in Silicon Valley, Highway 101, which connects technology companies on both sides in series, often suffers from traffic jams. I wait in line for an hour or two when I go out to eat, I can't find a parking space during lunch time, and I can't book a hotel when I come on a business trip. Every day, a large number of millionaires are born, and all graduates hope to set up an Internet company to realize their dream of financial freedom.</p><p>In the process of bubble development, venture capital investment in the Internet is also soaring rapidly.<b>The amount of venture capital increased from US $8 billion in 1990 to US $100 billion in 2000. In 1999, 55% of venture capital projects were Internet projects. In 1999, there were more than 150 Internet IPO projects.</b>It can be described as collective carnival.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e5481022453880d077f4a7bf0897d06\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If you pay attention to books describing the history at that time, you can find that if you don't invest in Internet companies in the investment world, you will be abandoned by the torrent of the times. During the Internet bubble period, companies like eBay rose more than 30 times. How can you perform without investing? Outperform your peers. I also wrote such details in \"Hedge Fund Storm Record\",<b>At the investment salon, fund managers who did not buy Internet companies faced ridicule and ridicule from peers, as well as doubts from customers and huge redemption pressure. Even Buffett was regarded as an \"outdated person\" at that time.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5645d1d043f967e134ea3bf9d1971d7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, in the process, we have seen the shadow of the bursting of the bubble. On March 10, 2000, the technology stock price reached its peak, which was also the highest peak in the history of Nasdaq that year.<b>A hedge fund published a Burning Up article in Barron's Weekly in the United States. It surveyed 207 Internet companies and estimated that 51 Internet companies were facing cash flow exhaustion. Based on the rate of burning money at that time, almost all The companies will not last 12 months</b>, Amazon is no exception, and almost at the same time, the stock market began to slide without warning, which may also indicate that the rate of burning money at that time has far exceeded the rate of user growth and revenue growth.</p><p><b>Then came an avalanche. After peaking on March 10, 2000, to the bottom in 2001, the Nasdaq index fell by more than 70%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243dd9552f67ae1a2605d1b0f553b5c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>After the Bubble Burst: Winners and Losers</b></p><p>After the Internet bubble, for the Internet industry, a large number of layoffs and investment suspensions were inevitable. Take the three major domestic portals at that time and Ali as an example. They all encountered the dilemma of investment reduction and the pressure of survival. Many IT practitioners From Before I had four or five offers in my hand to worrying about losing my job. After the bubble burst, from 2000 to 2002,<b>Almost 1,000 Internet companies closed down, more than 3,800 were merged, and most of the online celebrity companies at that time disappeared. Correspondingly, a large number of hedge funds with heavy positions in the Internet closed down after the Internet bubble burst. Most of them were forgotten by history and became real losers.</b></p><p>It is worth mentioning that after the bursting of the bubble, there was also a very dramatic situation, that is, Ravi Suria, an Indian-born analyst of Lehman Brothers, who was bearish on Amazon. He issued several reports believing that Amazon would go bankrupt. Is this situation very similar to Tesla's pessimistic target price of $10 in 2019? Of course, Morgan Stanley was still very smart to leave room, but lowered Tesla's pessimistic target price, while Ravi has been bearish.<b>Ravi also left the sell-side later and is now the investment director of hedge fund Valmiki Capital. He and Amazon may both be regarded as post-bubble winners.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e94edc17afefbefd17babf746a390d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Internet Queen Mary still insisted on her OW (overweight) rating after stocks such as Amazon plummeted by 80%, and explained that people did not understand the long-term logic of the Internet industry. Although she was greatly criticized, she still insisted on her own views, but she was the most optimistic companies, except Netscape, Amazon, eBay and Yahoo, all survived, and Mary regained her fame in 2004 because she participated in Google's IPO. In 2010, Mary, who was already a Managing Director, left Morgan Stanley and began to become a partner of the VC fund Kleiner Perkins to continue her Internet investment career. Later, she invested in bull stocks such as DocuSign and Square. At the same time, she also published Internet trends every year. Reports continue to be known as the \"Internet Queen\".<b>From a historical point of view, the Internet industry has also fulfilled her assumption later. She should be regarded as the winner in the Internet bubble. Although she is not as powerful as she was back then, she still continues to succeed in her career.</b></p><p>Although her opponent Bill Gurley was bearish on Netscape, he was still a pioneer in Internet investment and participated in Amazon's IPO. After leaving the sell-side, he started an investment career. He was a partner of VC Hummer Winlad and invested in<b>Including Uber and becoming a director of the company, his investment performance seems to be more successful than Mary's.</b></p><p>Of course, after this bubble,<b>The only thing that hasn't changed is Warren Buffett who didn't participate in the whole process</b>, Buffett is still the happy old man drinking Coke, can still control the entire Wall Street, and is not \"outdated\" because he missed the Internet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f53918f37649b1a6b887a6569322b1be\" tg-width=\"340\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A little revelation</b></p><p>In fact, after this bubble, I think there are a few things that are certain:</p><p><ol><li><b>The bubble definitely has a reason for its birth and even fundamental support:</b>The strong economy of the United States, the popularity of PCs and policy support are all hotbeds for the whole bubble. No bubble is a nonsense fantasy, and most of them are supported by strong fundamentals;</p><p></li><li><b>The logic of the Internet bubble is not wrong in the long run:</b>Judging from the later human history and the development of the Internet, the logic of the Internet has been fulfilled, even far exceeding expectations. It's just that we are too ahead of the development of the industry, similar to a kite. If we fly too high and too fast, the line will break, so<b>Don't think that if the industry prospect is correct, the high-speed growth bubble of the industry will definitely be digested without bursting.</b>Of course,<b>The bursting of the bubble does not mean that the industry has been completely falsified. If people changed careers because of the bursting of the bubble in 2001, they might be somewhat sorry;</b></p><p></li><li><b>The length and magnitude of a bubble can never be predicted:</b>In 1997, some analysts sang short on Netscape. If you look at it later, it was actually right, but it turned out that this was too early, but it was a big mistake. It continued to consolidate the status of Mary, the goddess of the Internet, so don't guess the top easily. The amplitude of the bubble may be far beyond imagination,<b>The hedge fund that published a research report shorting the Internet in 2000 may just be the one with the best luck;</b></p><p></li><li><b>Bubble bursts always happen inadvertently:</b>Although many so-called reasons can be found to prove that the bursting of the bubble is coming, you can't even find any specific events on the day of the big drop, and the bubble suddenly burst, and the bubble burst as fast as it rose, which exceeded expectations. Looking back, I realized that the financial reports of these companies were so fragile. Why did I believe that these companies could be worth so much money at that time?<b>So while keeping one drunk, be sure to keep one sober.</b></p><p></li></ol>In short, we can find too many similar stories, from Japan's real estate bubble, Taiwan Province's stock market bubble in 1990s, Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997, Internet bubble and 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, there is a certain bubble in the capital market. The current Bitcoin, software SaaS, and new energy vehicles may also be more or less bubbles, but they are indeed the development direction, so bubbles are not poison.</p><p><b>But if we can't understand these bubbles, either we are as determined as Buffett to ignore them at all, or we have to participate in them. Just always remember, don't be the last person to really believe that bubbles or growth can last forever and buy them. After all, even if you are lucky enough, Amazon, which last survived and developed best, was bought at the high in 2000, and it was 7 years later in 2007 to return to the high point before the decline. Can you really resist not cutting meat in the process?</b></p>","source":"lsy1627904959798","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>From the Clinton Era: The Origin, Madness and Bursting of the Internet Bubble</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFrom the Clinton Era: The Origin, Madness and Bursting of the Internet Bubble\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">张弢看世界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 19:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhang Tao</p><p>I remember once when I went to a domestic Internet company for research, I met an American fund manager in his 50s and chatted with him. Even in the US stock market dominated by FAANG, he only bought some profitable Internet companies, similar to Google and Facebook. Even if God is like Amazon, he has never bought it.<b>In fact, the reason is very simple. He is a person who experienced the pain of the Internet bubble in 2000, or he can never understand the Internet model of first losing money and then making profits.</b></p><p>Some people say that a fund manager will definitely experience several crises in his career, and why is it that most American hedge funds can't exceed 20 years? Because most of them have overcome two hurdles in the past 20 years, one is the Internet bubble in 2000, the other is the 2008 financial crisis. There are many books and movies about the financial crisis, the famous ones include The Big Short, Too Big to Fail, etc.<b>But for the Internet bubble, there are actually very few such works, mainly because it is a bubble in a specific industry. After it burst, it didn't have a huge impact on the whole global finance and economy, and the Internet later began to be brilliant, which seems to be an episode.</b>But there is no doubt that the story of the bursting of the Internet bubble is wonderful enough. Maybe the Internet is still thriving later, but those hedge funds that closed their doors because of the bursting of the bubble may be forgotten and become the real losers.</p><p>I recently read some books and articles and did some research,<b>As a summary and commemoration, write something. After all, if we are still in this line, we must accompany or dance with the bubble, hoping to become winners instead of losers in the bubble.</b></p><p><b>Internet Industry Outbreak: The Best Footnote of the Golden Age of the 1990s in the United States</b></p><p>After the end of the Cold War, the United States became the only superpower in the world. Japan was in trouble after the real estate bubble (also a bubble) burst, and the world was facing great changes. Clinton campaign lines<b>The famous \"Stupid, the problem is the economy!\" Let him defeat then President George H.W. Bush in 1992</b>, and ended the 12-year rule of the Republican Party and was elected as the 42nd president of the United States, marking the golden age of the 1990s in the United States.</p><p>During Clinton's administration, he fulfilled his campaign promise, and with the right time, place and people, the 1990s was the peak of the American economy after the 1960s.<b>During the Clinton administration, the average GDP growth rate of the United States was 4.6%, the unemployment rate dropped from over 7% in the 1980s to about 5%, and inflation also dropped from an average of 5.1% in the 1980s to an average of 2.6%. That period was called \"The Fabulous Decade\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e745eabc01a6647663ba9f4d727092b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the technology industry,<b>In 1993, Clinton also announced the \"Action Agenda\", the idea of establishing the National Information Infrastructure of the United States.</b>Familiar top-level design, familiar policy support, how much it is like the story that is happening today decades later.</p><p>Coupled with the success of personal computer companies such as IBM and Dell, personal computers began to become popular among the public, and the sales volume soared. With the popularity of computers,<b>The number of personal computers connected to the Internet increased from 310,000 in 1990 to 43.23 million in 2000, an increase of more than 130 times in 10 years, with a compound growth rate of more than 60%.</b>What an amazing and familiar number. It seems that this number means that this buy can never be wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916155fbed3707499dc9384733188e43\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The establishment of supporting infrastructure, policy support, strong demand, and the curtain of the Internet bubble are slowly opening in these familiar logics.</b></p><p><b>Internet Queen and Netscape</b></p><p>Every industry has a representative figure and a representative company. Similar new energy vehicles must be Elon Musk and Tesla, the mobile Internet is Jobs and Apple, and the Internet in the 1990s was no exception, but in fact<b>The representative company is not IBM and Microsoft, but the entrance to the Internet-the browser company Netscape.</b></p><p>At the same time, in addition to entrepreneurs like Bezos, the icons of the Internet bubble era,<b>Another important figure is Morgan Stanley's Internet analyst Mary Meeker. At the peak of the Internet bubble, this woman who was known as Greenspan and Warren Buffett who could influence Wall Street. She is a well-deserved \"The Queen of. Net\",</b>And the masterpiece that made her famous in World War I is of course a strong recommendation to Netscape.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fed7803678e200af348447fb12500f1\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Mary graduated from the psychology department of DePauw University in 1981, then joined Merrill Lynch as a stockbroker, and after completing her MBA at Cornell University in 1986, she joined Salomon Brothers as a technology industry analyst. At that time, her ideal was actually to become a fund manager. But fate may have known that she was better suited to be a seller, and she joined Morgan Stanley in 1991 as an analyst in the tech industry, beginning a brilliant career.</p><p>Four years after joining Morgan Stanley in 1995, she participated in the IPO of Morgan Stanley's project-the browser Netscape. This was an opportunity to change her life.<b>She also seized it and released a 300-page coverage report on Netscape. This 300-page report was shocking in the 1990s when the Internet was not popular at that time, and it naturally became the bible for all investors to study the Internet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8330a01398b3dbdd1df47bc91533c3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"140\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Her investment logic now is nothing more than Netscape is the entrance to the Internet. With the popularity of personal computers, the Internet will enter thousands of households, and Netscape can make profits by collecting advertising fees, and the market space is huge. What a simple logic that now seems incomparably correct!</b></p><p>And<b>Netscape also lived up to expectations. It rose 86% on the first day of listing, and once rose by more than 154% during the session. Less than one and a half years after the company was founded, the company's founder Jim Clark's net worth reached more than 500 million US dollars</b>, this browser company that marks the entrance to the Internet is similar to the later interpretation of new energy vehicles regarding Tesla as the entrance, and people can't help but be optimistic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5497d3b16b27d69747969fe2b687337\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Because of the success of Netscape, Mary also became famous on Wall Street. Coupled with the IPOs of a large number of Internet companies, Mary became the real queen. In the era when supervision was not so strict, she would help investment banks screen projects, and Internet unlisted companies also hoped to get her favor, so she was able to join the listing plan of investment banks, and because of the steady rise of Internet stocks,<b>She's like a Midas touch, and all the stocks she recommends are on a wild upswing.</b></p><p>What further consolidated her position was that in January 1997, Deutsche Morgan analyst Bill Gurley released a bearish report on Netscape, reminding the risks of Netscape's soaring stock price and downgrading Netscape to a neutral rating. Netscape's stock price fell sharply that day. 20%, and Mary responded two days later, upgrading Netscape from Buy to Strong Buy.<b>And declared that \"if this company (Netscape) dies, it's Bill Gurley's fault\" If this company dies, it's Bill Gurley's fault, Netscape The stock price recovered its lost ground in a few days.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85fcdd32f0f6efc6a8d6a9142d51e040\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After blowing up short Bill, it seems that nothing can stop Mary and Netscape,<b>At its peak, there were 26 Internet analysts working for Mary, and she mainly covered 30 companies.</b>Despite such a huge team, all fund managers only want to see Mary alone, because she is the queen of the Internet. Even when she goes to some investment conferences, someone will say \"Look, that's Mary\".<b>She is no longer an analyst, but a star, someone who can really influence Wall Street.</b></p><p><b>Crazy Market to Bubble Burst</b></p><p>In addition to the Internet Queen, of course, the happiest are the startups in Silicon Valley. During the most prosperous time in Silicon Valley, Highway 101, which connects technology companies on both sides in series, often suffers from traffic jams. I wait in line for an hour or two when I go out to eat, I can't find a parking space during lunch time, and I can't book a hotel when I come on a business trip. Every day, a large number of millionaires are born, and all graduates hope to set up an Internet company to realize their dream of financial freedom.</p><p>In the process of bubble development, venture capital investment in the Internet is also soaring rapidly.<b>The amount of venture capital increased from US $8 billion in 1990 to US $100 billion in 2000. In 1999, 55% of venture capital projects were Internet projects. In 1999, there were more than 150 Internet IPO projects.</b>It can be described as collective carnival.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e5481022453880d077f4a7bf0897d06\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If you pay attention to books describing the history at that time, you can find that if you don't invest in Internet companies in the investment world, you will be abandoned by the torrent of the times. During the Internet bubble period, companies like eBay rose more than 30 times. How can you perform without investing? Outperform your peers. I also wrote such details in \"Hedge Fund Storm Record\",<b>At the investment salon, fund managers who did not buy Internet companies faced ridicule and ridicule from peers, as well as doubts from customers and huge redemption pressure. Even Buffett was regarded as an \"outdated person\" at that time.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5645d1d043f967e134ea3bf9d1971d7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, in the process, we have seen the shadow of the bursting of the bubble. On March 10, 2000, the technology stock price reached its peak, which was also the highest peak in the history of Nasdaq that year.<b>A hedge fund published a Burning Up article in Barron's Weekly in the United States. It surveyed 207 Internet companies and estimated that 51 Internet companies were facing cash flow exhaustion. Based on the rate of burning money at that time, almost all The companies will not last 12 months</b>, Amazon is no exception, and almost at the same time, the stock market began to slide without warning, which may also indicate that the rate of burning money at that time has far exceeded the rate of user growth and revenue growth.</p><p><b>Then came an avalanche. After peaking on March 10, 2000, to the bottom in 2001, the Nasdaq index fell by more than 70%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243dd9552f67ae1a2605d1b0f553b5c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>After the Bubble Burst: Winners and Losers</b></p><p>After the Internet bubble, for the Internet industry, a large number of layoffs and investment suspensions were inevitable. Take the three major domestic portals at that time and Ali as an example. They all encountered the dilemma of investment reduction and the pressure of survival. Many IT practitioners From Before I had four or five offers in my hand to worrying about losing my job. After the bubble burst, from 2000 to 2002,<b>Almost 1,000 Internet companies closed down, more than 3,800 were merged, and most of the online celebrity companies at that time disappeared. Correspondingly, a large number of hedge funds with heavy positions in the Internet closed down after the Internet bubble burst. Most of them were forgotten by history and became real losers.</b></p><p>It is worth mentioning that after the bursting of the bubble, there was also a very dramatic situation, that is, Ravi Suria, an Indian-born analyst of Lehman Brothers, who was bearish on Amazon. He issued several reports believing that Amazon would go bankrupt. Is this situation very similar to Tesla's pessimistic target price of $10 in 2019? Of course, Morgan Stanley was still very smart to leave room, but lowered Tesla's pessimistic target price, while Ravi has been bearish.<b>Ravi also left the sell-side later and is now the investment director of hedge fund Valmiki Capital. He and Amazon may both be regarded as post-bubble winners.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e94edc17afefbefd17babf746a390d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Internet Queen Mary still insisted on her OW (overweight) rating after stocks such as Amazon plummeted by 80%, and explained that people did not understand the long-term logic of the Internet industry. Although she was greatly criticized, she still insisted on her own views, but she was the most optimistic companies, except Netscape, Amazon, eBay and Yahoo, all survived, and Mary regained her fame in 2004 because she participated in Google's IPO. In 2010, Mary, who was already a Managing Director, left Morgan Stanley and began to become a partner of the VC fund Kleiner Perkins to continue her Internet investment career. Later, she invested in bull stocks such as DocuSign and Square. At the same time, she also published Internet trends every year. Reports continue to be known as the \"Internet Queen\".<b>From a historical point of view, the Internet industry has also fulfilled her assumption later. She should be regarded as the winner in the Internet bubble. Although she is not as powerful as she was back then, she still continues to succeed in her career.</b></p><p>Although her opponent Bill Gurley was bearish on Netscape, he was still a pioneer in Internet investment and participated in Amazon's IPO. After leaving the sell-side, he started an investment career. He was a partner of VC Hummer Winlad and invested in<b>Including Uber and becoming a director of the company, his investment performance seems to be more successful than Mary's.</b></p><p>Of course, after this bubble,<b>The only thing that hasn't changed is Warren Buffett who didn't participate in the whole process</b>, Buffett is still the happy old man drinking Coke, can still control the entire Wall Street, and is not \"outdated\" because he missed the Internet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f53918f37649b1a6b887a6569322b1be\" tg-width=\"340\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A little revelation</b></p><p>In fact, after this bubble, I think there are a few things that are certain:</p><p><ol><li><b>The bubble definitely has a reason for its birth and even fundamental support:</b>The strong economy of the United States, the popularity of PCs and policy support are all hotbeds for the whole bubble. No bubble is a nonsense fantasy, and most of them are supported by strong fundamentals;</p><p></li><li><b>The logic of the Internet bubble is not wrong in the long run:</b>Judging from the later human history and the development of the Internet, the logic of the Internet has been fulfilled, even far exceeding expectations. It's just that we are too ahead of the development of the industry, similar to a kite. If we fly too high and too fast, the line will break, so<b>Don't think that if the industry prospect is correct, the high-speed growth bubble of the industry will definitely be digested without bursting.</b>Of course,<b>The bursting of the bubble does not mean that the industry has been completely falsified. If people changed careers because of the bursting of the bubble in 2001, they might be somewhat sorry;</b></p><p></li><li><b>The length and magnitude of a bubble can never be predicted:</b>In 1997, some analysts sang short on Netscape. If you look at it later, it was actually right, but it turned out that this was too early, but it was a big mistake. It continued to consolidate the status of Mary, the goddess of the Internet, so don't guess the top easily. The amplitude of the bubble may be far beyond imagination,<b>The hedge fund that published a research report shorting the Internet in 2000 may just be the one with the best luck;</b></p><p></li><li><b>Bubble bursts always happen inadvertently:</b>Although many so-called reasons can be found to prove that the bursting of the bubble is coming, you can't even find any specific events on the day of the big drop, and the bubble suddenly burst, and the bubble burst as fast as it rose, which exceeded expectations. Looking back, I realized that the financial reports of these companies were so fragile. Why did I believe that these companies could be worth so much money at that time?<b>So while keeping one drunk, be sure to keep one sober.</b></p><p></li></ol>In short, we can find too many similar stories, from Japan's real estate bubble, Taiwan Province's stock market bubble in 1990s, Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997, Internet bubble and 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, there is a certain bubble in the capital market. The current Bitcoin, software SaaS, and new energy vehicles may also be more or less bubbles, but they are indeed the development direction, so bubbles are not poison.</p><p><b>But if we can't understand these bubbles, either we are as determined as Buffett to ignore them at all, or we have to participate in them. Just always remember, don't be the last person to really believe that bubbles or growth can last forever and buy them. After all, even if you are lucky enough, Amazon, which last survived and developed best, was bought at the high in 2000, and it was 7 years later in 2007 to return to the high point before the decline. Can you really resist not cutting meat in the process?</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636920\">张弢看世界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5a09f6f7446acea393f3f94370520cf","relate_stocks":{"QNET":"纳斯达克互联网指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636920","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138385946","content_text":"作者:张弢\n我记得我有次去国内互联网公司调研的时候碰到一个50多岁的美国基金经理,和他聊了下,哪怕在FAANG支配的美股,他也只是买一些盈利的互联网公司,类似谷歌脸书这样,哪怕神如亚马逊这样的股票,他也从来没有买过,其实原因很简单,他是经历过2000年互联网泡沫伤痛的人,或者永远无法理解先亏损后盈利的互联网模式。\n有人说,一个基金经理一定会在自己职业生涯中经历好几次的危机,而为什么大部分美国对冲基金都超不过20年,因为过去20年大部分要迈过两个坎,一个是2000年互联网泡沫,一个是2008年金融危机,对于金融危机的书和电影有很多,著名的包括The Big Short, Too Big to Fail等等,但是对于互联网泡沫,其实这类作品很少,主要还是因为它是特定行业的泡沫,破灭之后并没有对于整个全球金融和经济产生巨大的影响,而且互联网后来又开始辉煌,这似乎是一个小插曲。但无疑互联网泡沫破灭的故事也足够精彩,也许互联网后来还是欣欣向荣,但那些因为泡沫破灭而关门的对冲基金们也许就被人所遗忘成为真正的输家。\n最近看了一些书和文章做了点研究,作为一个总结和纪念写点啥,毕竟我们如果还在这一行,一定与泡沫相伴或者共舞,希望能够成为泡沫里的赢家而不是输家。\n互联网行业爆发:美国90年代黄金时期的最好注脚\n冷战结束之后,美国成为了全球唯一超级大国,日本在房地产泡沫(也是个泡沫)破灭之后陷入了困境,世界面临巨变。克林顿竞选台词那个著名的 “笨蛋,问题是经济!” 让他在1992年击败了时任总统老布什,并且结束了共和党12年的执政当选为美国第42任总统,美国90年代的黄金年代拉开了序幕。\n克林顿执政时期兑现了他的竞选承诺,加上天时地利人和,上个世纪90年代是美国经济继20世纪60年代之后有一个高峰,克林顿执政时期美国GDP平均增速为4.6%,失业率从80年代的超过7%降低到5%左右,通胀也从20世纪80年代的平均5.1%降低到平均2.6%,那个时期被人成为“令人惊艳的十年”(The Fabulous Decade)。\n\n而在科技行业,1993年克林顿也公布了“行动议程”,建立美国国家信息基础设施(National Information Infrastructure)的构想,熟悉的顶层设计,熟悉的政策支持,这多么像几十年后的今天正在发生的故事。\n再加上IBM 和Dell等个人电脑公司的成功,个人电脑开始在大众中普及,销售量大涨,随着计算机的普及,接入互联网的个人计算机的数量从1990年的31万台增加到了2000年的4323万台,10年之间增加了130多倍,复合增长超过60%,又是个多么惊人而熟悉的数字,似乎这个数字就代表这买入永远都不会错误。\n\n配套基础设施的建立,政策的支持,强劲的需求,互联网泡沫的大幕就在这些熟悉的逻辑中徐徐拉开。\n互联网女皇和Netscape\n任何一个行业都有一个代表性的人物和一家代表性的公司,类似新能源汽车一定就是Elon Musk和特斯拉,移动互联网是乔布斯和苹果,而90年代互联网也不例外,但其实代表公司并不是IBM和微软,而是互联网的入口——浏览器公司Netscape(网景公司)。\n同时,互联网泡沫时代的标志人物除了类似Bezos这样的创业者以外,还有一个重要的人物就是Morgan Stanley的互联网分析师Mary Meeker,这个在互联网泡沫巅峰时期被誉为和格林斯潘、沃伦巴菲特一样可以左右华尔街的女人,是当之无愧的“The Queen of .Net”,而让她一战成名的代表作当然就是对Netscape的强烈推荐。\n\nMary在1981年毕业于DePauw大学的心理系,然后加入美林成为一个股票经纪人,在1986年康奈尔大学完成MBA之后加入所罗门兄弟公司成为一名科技行业分析师,当时她的理想实际是成为一名基金经理。但是命运可能知道她更适合做卖方,她于1991年加入Morgan Stanley成为科技行业的分析师,开始了辉煌的职业生涯。\n1995年在加入Morgan Stanley 4年之后,她参与了Morgan Stanley的项目——浏览器Netscape的IPO,这是改变她一生的机会,她也抓住了,并且发布了一篇关于Netscape 300页的覆盖报告,这个300页的报告在当时互联网并没有普及的90年代可想有多么震撼,也理所当然成为所有投资人研究互联网的圣经。\n\n她的投资逻辑现在看无非是Netscape是互联网的入口,随着个人电脑的普及,互联网会进入千家万户,而Netscape可以通过收取广告费而盈利,市场空间巨大。多么朴素而且现在看起来都无比正确的逻辑啊!\n而Netscape也不负众望,在上市首日大涨86%,盘中一度大涨超过154%,在公司成立还不到1年半之后,公司创始人Jim Clark的身家就达到了超过5亿美金,这个标志着互联网入口的浏览器公司就类似后来新能源汽车把特斯拉看作入口的解读一样,无法不让人看好。\n\n而因为Netscape的成功,Mary也在华尔街声名鹊起,加上大量的互联网公司的IPO,Mary成为了真正的女皇,在监管不那么严格的年代她会帮助投行甄别项目,互联网非上市公司也因此希望得到她的垂青,从而能够加入投行的上市计划,而因为互联网股票的节节高升,她就像是点石成金,所有她推荐的股票都在疯狂的上涨中。\n而进一步巩固她地位的是在1997年1月,Deutsche Morgan的分析师Bill Gurley发布了Netscape的看空报告,提示股价狂飙的Netscape的风险并将Netscape下调到中性评级,当天Netscape的股价大跌20%,而Mary在两天之后发出回应,将Netscape从Buy(买入)上调到Strong Buy(强力买入)评级,并且宣称“如果这个公司(Netscape)死了,那就是Bill Gurley的错”(If this company dies, it’s Bill Gurley's fault),Netscape股价几天之后就收复失地。\n\n在打爆空头Bill之后,似乎一切都无法阻挡Mary和Netscape,最巅峰时候,有26个互联网分析师为Mary工作,而她主要覆盖30个公司,尽管有如此庞大的团队,所有的基金经理只想见Mary一个人,因为她是那个互联网的女皇,甚至她去一些投资会议,会有人发出“看,那就是Mary”的感慨,她已经不是一个分析师,而是一个明星,真正可以左右华尔街的人。\n疯狂的市场到泡沫破灭\n除了互联网女皇,当然最开心的是硅谷的创业公司们,在硅谷最繁荣的时间,串联起两旁科技公司的101公路经常大堵车。出门吃饭排一两个小时的队,午饭时间找不到停车位,过来出差定不到旅馆,每天都有大量的百万富翁诞生,所有的毕业生都希望创立一家互联网公司实现财务自由的梦想。\n而在泡沫发展过程中,风险资本投资在互联网也是极速狂飙,风险投资额从1990年的80亿美金增长到2000年的1000亿美金,风险投资在1999年55%项目是互联网项目,1999年有超过150个互联网IPO项目,可谓是集体的狂欢。\n\n如果关注描述当时历史的书,就可以发现在投资界如果你不投互联网公司,你就会被时代洪流抛弃,在互联网泡沫时期,如eBay这样的公司涨幅超过30倍,你不投如何能跑赢同行。在《对冲基金风雨录》也写过这样的细节,在投资沙龙上,没有买互联网公司的基金经理面对同行的奚落和嘲讽,也面对客户的质疑和巨大的赎回压力,甚至巴菲特也在当时被为“过时的人”。\n\n而实际上,在过程中,已经看到了泡沫破灭的阴影,2000年3月10日,科技股价走上顶峰,也是当年纳斯达克的历史最高峰。一家对冲基金在美国《巴伦周刊》中发表了一篇Burning Up的文章,它调研了207家互联网公司,预估51家网络公司现金流面临枯竭,以当时的烧钱速度计算,几乎所有的公司都撑不过12个月,亚马逊也不例外,而几乎同时,股市开始在毫无征兆中滑落,这或许也说明当时烧钱速度已经远远超过用户增长的速度和收入的增长。\n随后就是雪崩,在2000年3月10日触顶之后到2001年底部,Nasdaq指数跌幅超过70%。\n\n泡沫破灭之后:赢家和输家\n互联网泡沫之后,对于互联网行业来说,大量的裁员和投资暂停是不可避免的,就拿国内当时的三大门户和阿里来说,都碰到了投资缩减的困境和生存压力,很多IT从业人员从之前手拿四五份offer到担心失业。泡沫破灭之后,从2000年到2002年,有差不多1000家互联网公司倒闭,超过3800家被兼并,绝大部分当时的网红公司都销声匿迹。与此相对应的,大量的重仓互联网的对冲基金在互联网泡沫破灭之后倒闭,他们大部分都被历史遗忘,成为真正的输家。\n值得一提的是,泡沫破灭之后也出现了非常戏剧化的局面,那就是出现了看空亚马逊的大空头雷曼兄弟的印度裔分析师Ravi Suria,他连发数篇报告认为亚马逊会破产,此情此景是否很像特斯拉在2019年的时候Morgan Stanley汽车分析师的10美金悲观目标价,当然Morgan Stanley还是很聪明的留了余地,只是将特斯拉悲观目标价下调,而Ravi则是一直看空,而2002年亚马逊超预期的业绩也直接打爆Ravi标志着互联网股票的触底,Ravi之后也离开卖方,现在是对冲基金Valmiki Capital的投资总监,他和亚马逊也许都还算是泡沫后的赢家。\n\n互联网女皇Mary则在亚马逊等股票大跌80%之后仍然坚持自己的OW(超配)评级,并且解释说人们并不理解互联网行业长期逻辑,虽然受到巨大非议,仍然坚持自己的看法,不过她最看好的公司,除了Netscape以外,Amazon,eBay和Yahoo都活了下来,而且Mary在2004年因为参与Google的IPO再次让她重获声名。2010年已是Managing Director(董事总经理)的Mary离开Morgan Stanley,开始成为VC基金Kleiner Perkins的合伙人继续互联网投资事业,后来她投资了DocuSign和Square这样的牛股,同时她也还是每年发布互联网的趋势报告继续以“互联网女皇”被人们所知。从历史来看,后面互联网行业也兑现了她的假设,她应该算是互联网泡沫里面的赢家,虽然不至于如当年那么呼风唤雨,但仍然继续事业的成功。\n她的对手Bill Gurley虽然看空了Netscape,但仍然是互联网投资的先锋并且参与了亚马逊的IPO,离开卖方之后开始了投资生涯,是VC Hummer Winlad的合伙人,投资了包括Uber并成为公司董事,他的投资业绩似乎比Mary还要成功。\n当然这次泡沫之后,唯一没有什么改变的就是全程没有参与的沃伦巴菲特,巴菲特还是那个喝着可乐的快乐老头,仍然可以左右整个华尔街,并没有因为错过互联网而“过时”。\n\n一点启示\n其实经过这个泡沫,我觉得有几点可以肯定:\n\n泡沫绝对有它诞生的理由甚至基本面的支撑:美国强劲的经济,PC的普及和政策的支持都是带来整个泡沫的温床,没有什么泡沫是无厘头的幻想,大部分有强劲的基本面支撑;\n互联网泡沫逻辑长期看并没有错:从后来人类历史和互联网发展来看,互联网逻辑都兑现了,甚至远远超过预期,只是我们太领先于行业的发展,类似于风筝,飞的太高太快,线就会断,所以不要认为行业前景正确行业高速增长泡沫就肯定能被消化而不会破灭。当然,泡沫破灭也不代表这个行业完全被证伪,如果在2001年因为泡沫破灭转行的人,可能多少会有点遗憾;\n泡沫的长度和幅度永远无法预测:在1997年就有分析师唱空Netscape,如果后面来看其实是对的,但事实证明这个实在太早,反而大错特错,继续巩固了互联网女神Mary的江湖地位,所以不要去轻易猜顶,泡沫幅度也许远远超过想象,那家在2000年发布调研报告做空互联网的对冲基金也许只是运气最好的那个而已;\n泡沫破灭总是不经意间发生的:虽然可以找到很多所谓的原因,证明泡沫的破灭即将到来,但在大跌当天你甚至找不到任何具体事件,泡沫就突然破灭了,而泡沫破灭速度之快如同上涨时候一样非常超预期,而回头看才发现这些公司的财报是如此的脆弱,当时为什么会相信这些公司可以值这么多钱,所以留一份醉的同时,一定要留一份清醒。\n\n总之,我们可以找到太多太多类似的故事,从日本房地产泡沫,90年代台湾股市泡沫,到97年的东南亚金融危机到互联网泡沫以及08年金融危机。所以资本市场里泡沫是一定的,现在的比特币、软件SaaS、新能源汽车也许也是或多或少的泡沫,但他们也确实是发展方向,所以泡沫并非毒药,\n但如果无法理解这些泡沫,要么我们和巴菲特一样有定力完全不管,要么我们也不得不参与其中,只是永远要记住,不要成为真正相信泡沫或者增长可以永远持续而最后一个买入的人,毕竟就算你足够足够幸运,在2000年高位买入的是最后活下来并且发展最好的亚马逊,回到下跌前的高点也是7年之后的2007年了,你真的能够抗住不在这个过程中割肉吗?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069072230,"gmtCreate":1651211029360,"gmtModify":1676534871630,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567665939928011","idStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069072230","repostId":"1116937204","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116937204","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651126440,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116937204?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-28 14:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Understand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116937204","media":"追寻价值之路","summary":"不论是从理论上来看,还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看,股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下,股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。核心结论股票回购最早起","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support stock prices to a certain extent or even push stock prices up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies.<b>Core conclusions</b></p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest. After years of development, it has become a common means in the capital market. Especially in the last ten years, the scale of repurchase by listed companies in the United States has soared sharply.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the U.S. stock market, this article discusses and sorts out issues related to stock repurchases. The main contents are divided into five parts:</p><p>The first part introduces the basic concept of stock repurchase, including four common ways of repurchase and the motivation of stock repurchase; The second part discusses the related financial treatment of stock repurchase, involving whether to choose the financial treatment of canceling shares after repurchase and why some enterprises have negative net assets after repurchase; The third part sorts out the logic that stock repurchases are conducive to stock price rises. One is to directly increase the demand for company stocks, and the other is to improve financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies. In addition, judging from the performance of U.S. stocks, stock repurchases It is an important part of stock price yields, and the impact of repurchases on price-to-book ratios is more significant than P/E; The fourth part discusses the potential risks of stock repurchase, mainly including the decline of market liquidity and the high financial leverage risk of listed companies caused by repurchase; The fifth part is an introduction to the current repurchase situation of A shares and the experience of US stock repurchase on A shares. Risk warning: Repurchases increase financial leverage risks, historical experience does not represent the future, the macro economy is less than expected, and overseas markets fluctuate significantly</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. Introduction to the basic concepts of stock repurchase</b></p><p><b>1.1 What is a share repurchase?</b></p><p>Stock repurchase refers to the behavior of listed companies using cash and other means to repurchase a certain amount of outstanding stocks of the company from the stock market, which will reduce the number of outstanding stocks of the company, thereby achieving market value management, equity incentives, and stabilizing stock prices. and other positive effects.</p><p>There are two main sources of funds for enterprises to repurchase stocks: one is internal funds, including net profits obtained from daily operations of enterprises or cash sources such as government tax cuts and tax rebates, as well as self-owned funds such as the original retained earnings of enterprises; The second is external funds, which borrow money and add leverage through bond issuance and other means to achieve share repurchase.</p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest, especially after the 1980s. Previously, because western European and American countries advocated the theory of maintaining corporate capital, and the repurchase behavior itself was suspected of market manipulation, few companies conducted stock repurchases. It was not until the 1980s that stock repurchases began to gradually develop. After more than 40 years of development, stock repurchase has become a common means in developed capital markets. It is widely used to optimize the capital structure, enhance the company's value, or send positive signals when the company's stock price is undervalued.</p><p><b>1.2 Four common ways of stock repurchase</b></p><p>According to the different methods of determining the repurchase price, stock repurchase can generally be divided into four basic methods: open market operation, cash offer repurchase, agreement repurchase and transferable sale right repurchase.</p><p>Open market repurchase is a popular stock repurchase method in the current US market. Listed companies that repurchase shares through the open market will directly repurchase shares in the open market at the current market price. Stock repurchases under this method are more flexible. Listed companies can freely decide factors such as the time and quantity of repurchases according to their own circumstances. Moreover, stock repurchases under this method do not need to pay additional premiums.</p><p>Another more common method of stock repurchase is offer repurchase. There are generally two pricing methods for listed companies to repurchase stocks through tender offers. One is to use a fixed price to issue an offer to shareholders within an agreed period to purchase a certain number of stocks. Listed companies generally choose this pricing method when they need a large number of company stocks in a short period of time. However, a sharp increase in demand in the short term will lead to paying a certain premium for repurchasing stocks. Another pricing method under tender offer repurchase is Dutch auction repurchase, which will give the company greater flexibility in the repurchase price, so it is also widely used. In Dutch auction repurchase, the listed company sets the range of repurchase price and the quantity planned to repurchase, and then shareholders express the number of shares they are willing to sell at a certain level within the price range. Finally, the listed company will summarize the wishes of all shareholders and repurchase shares according to the low to high price order until the established repurchase quantity of the listed company is reached.</p><p>Agreement buybacks are less transparent compared to open market buybacks and offer buybacks. Because under the agreement repurchase method, listed companies directly enter into private agreements with some shareholders to repurchase shares according to the price and quantity agreed in the agreement. This method is relatively free in terms of pricing, transaction time and payment method, and usually the negotiated price is lower than the market price.</p><p>Transferable right of sale repurchase is a special way of stock repurchase. The company that implements stock repurchase gives shareholders the right to sell their stocks to the company at a specific price within a certain period of time. Once this right is formed, it can be separated and traded with the attached stocks. Listed companies issue transferable authorizations to their shareholders, and shareholders who are unwilling to sell their shares can sell this right separately to meet the different demands of various shareholders.</p><p><b>1.3 Why Stock Repurchase?</b></p><p>The benefits of share repurchases are multifaceted. From the perspective of the company as a whole, whether it is internal or external funds to repurchase shares, it can improve the capital structure of the enterprise and reduce the cost of supervision and restraint on the company's management. The way of issuing bonds to repurchase shares can also make use of the tax shield effect of debts to achieve reasonable tax avoidance, and urge the management to focus on the debt repayment and long-term sustainable operation of the enterprise. For those shareholders who sell their stocks in the stock repurchase plan, they can sell their stocks to obtain liquidity. In addition, compared with the direct distribution of cash Dividend, since capital gains are generally not taxed or the tax rate is lower, effective tax avoidance can be achieved by distributing dividends through stock repurchase. Shareholders who still hold shares after the company implements the repurchase plan can also benefit. As the net capital of the enterprise will be significantly reduced after the completion of the stock repurchase, under the condition that other conditions remain unchanged, the financial indicators such as the return on net assets, earnings per share, and net assets per share of the enterprise will all be significantly improved. If we classify the motivations of listed companies' stock repurchases, we can also classify them into the following four categories: one is financial motivation, the other is signal transmission appeal, the third is to reduce principal-agent risks, and the fourth is to increase company control to prevent hostile takeovers.</p><p><b>The financial motivation of listed companies to buy back shares is mainly related to their capital structure and dividend policy. Listed companies often buy back shares for financial reasons such as increasing earnings per share, improving capital structure and increasing shareholder wealth effect.</b>Specifically, the improvement of stock repurchase on the financial-related factors of listed companies is mainly reflected in four aspects:</p><p><b>First, improve the company's earnings per share.</b>Since buybacks will reduce the number of outstanding shares of listed companies, the decrease in the denominator when calculating earnings per share will directly lead to an increase in EPS, which may also increase the company's stock price.</p><p><b>Second, realize dividend tax avoidance and increase the shareholder wealth of listed companies.</b>Since the tax rate of cash dividends is higher than the tax rate of capital gains, cash return to shareholders by share repurchase instead of dividends can help shareholders achieve reasonable tax avoidance. In the PRC, the Dividend dividend income of individual investors whose shareholding period is less than one month is fully included in the taxable income, and the actual tax burden is 20%, but capital gains are temporarily exempted from income tax.</p><p><b>Thirdly, optimize the capital structure of the company and improve the value of the company through the tax shield effect.</b>No matter how the stock repurchase is carried out, it will reduce the company's owner's equity, and bond repurchase will even increase the company's debt, thus increasing the company's financial leverage ratio and producing a leverage effect. Therefore, for companies with low financial leverage, this can not only optimize the company's capital structure, but also make use of the tax shield effect brought by financing interest to improve the company's value.</p><p><b>Fourth, stock repurchases have high financial flexibility.</b>There are generally two ways for listed companies to return cash to shareholders: cash dividends and stock repurchases. However, the way of paying cash dividends usually makes shareholders expect future dividends, which requires the company to have stable cash flow. However, stock repurchase occurs occasionally. Listed companies can choose the amount, quantity, time, etc. of repurchase relatively freely under the stock repurchase method, which has great financial flexibility compared with the stock repurchase method.</p><p><b>The signal transmission appeal of stock repurchase is mainly based on the assumption of information asymmetry. Listed companies can transmit the signal to the market that the company's stock price is undervalued through stock repurchase, because the company will only carry out stock repurchase when it thinks that its stock price is undervalued. Sending a positive signal to the market in this way has a positive impact on the company's short-term operating income.</b></p><p><b>Share buybacks also help reduce principal-agent risk.</b>Because the management right and ownership of listed companies are separated, and the goals of agent and principal are not completely consistent, it may be that the principal can't clearly understand the goal bias of agent, thus causing the interests of principal to be damaged. Especially when the company's free cash flow is relatively abundant, the company's management may make over-investment or consumption for its own interests, thus encroaching on the interests of the company's shareholders. In this case, the company returns cash to shareholders through stock repurchase, which not only improves the efficiency of cash flow use, but also reduces agency costs and principal-agent risks.</p><p><b>Increasing control right through stock repurchase, preventing equity dilution and hostile takeover are also one of the motives of stock repurchase of listed companies.</b>In the 1980s, with the rise of leveraged mergers and acquisitions in the United States, hostile takeover activities gradually increased. In order to prevent companies from being hostile takeover, listed companies have repurchased shares to increase stock prices, reduce outstanding shares and resist hostile takeover. While there are fewer hostile takeovers now, using the repurchased shares for management's equity incentive program also helps avoid dilution.</p><p><b>2. Financial treatment of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>2.1 The difference between stock cancellation or not after share repurchase</b></p><p>For listed companies, after the stock repurchase is completed, the company can cancel the repurchased shares or keep the repurchased shares as \"treasury shares\".</p><p>The \"treasury shares\" retained by the company still belong to the issued shares, which are held by the company itself, and can be sold to the market at an appropriate time, issued convertible bonds or used as incentives for employees. However, the characteristics of \"treasury shares\" are similar to unissued stocks. \"Treasury shares\" have no voting rights, nor the right to pay dividends, and cannot be realized even after the company goes bankrupt. Therefore, \"treasury shares\" do not participate in the calculation of indicators such as earnings per share, return on net assets and net assets per share.</p><p><b>Therefore, after the stock repurchase is completed, whether the repurchased stocks are cancelled or not, it will not affect financial indicators such as earnings per share, net assets per share and return on net assets, because even if they are retained as \"treasury stocks\", these stocks will not participate in the calculation of these indicators.</b>From this perspective, there will be no big difference between cancelling and not canceling the repurchased shares for companies.</p><p><b>However, in most cases, enterprises will choose to keep the repurchased stocks as \"treasury stocks\" after the stock repurchase is completed.</b>We have counted the handling of stock repurchases of the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks. Among them, 30 listed companies have chosen to repurchase stocks and retained \"treasury shares\", and the other 20 listed companies have chosen to cancel the repurchased stocks or have not carried out stock repurchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485e1f54b04ed2c89a5d83b631a23a53\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The reason why enterprises tend to keep \"treasury stocks\" is mainly because \"treasury stocks\" themselves can bring certain positive significance to enterprises.</b></p><p>First, it can provide the company with sufficient flexibility in terms of financing and reduce financing costs. Since \"treasury shares\" are still issued shares, the company can sell \"treasury shares\" when there is a financing need; Compared with allotment of shares or issuance of new shares, the cost of obtaining funds by selling \"treasury shares\" is lower, which can not only save the supervision and intermediary costs related to issuing shares, but also avoid selling at a discount when the market permits.</p><p>Second, it is conducive to the implementation of incentive plans for employees or management. \"Treasury shares\" are one of the important stock sources for companies to issue equity incentives to employees and management. Therefore, for U.S. listed companies, retaining \"treasury shares\" can facilitate the implementation of equity incentive plans, etc., and avoid the lack of sufficient shares. The source of shares makes the incentive plan unable to be implemented.</p><p>The third is to facilitate the company's mergers and acquisitions and prevent the company from suffering hostile takeover. Merger and acquisition through treasury share exchange can provide certain flexibility for the company's merger and acquisition behavior; In addition, the behavior of retaining \"treasury shares\" after the repurchase can also prevent the company from being hostile takeovers. On the one hand, the repurchase pushes up the stock price, which makes it more difficult for the acquirer. On the other hand, \"treasury shares\" can supplement the number of shares in circulation of the company. Provide buffer time for the company to deal with hostile takeovers.</p><p>Fourth, it is conducive to the stability of stock prices. When there is irrational fluctuation in the market, enterprises can stabilize the price fluctuation by adjusting the supply of outstanding stocks, stabilize the stock price, and avoid the company being greatly affected by irrational factors such as market sentiment.</p><p><b>2.2 How does repurchase lead to negative net assets of enterprises?</b></p><p>Among the benefits that stock repurchases can bring, a very important one is that stock repurchases can increase EPS and the company's overall ROE. This is mainly because stock repurchases will reduce the company's net capital, and a significant decline in the denominator will bring Significant improvements including EPS and ROE. In even more exaggerated circumstances, some U.S.-listed companies have repurchased a large number of issued shares in the form of bond repurchases, resulting in a situation where total liabilities are greater than total assets and negative net assets. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid.</p><p>So how do these listed companies in the United States make their net assets negative through buybacks?<b>The main reason behind this is that there is a huge difference between the book value of equity assets in the financial statements and the market value of stocks in the secondary market. The stock price in the secondary market will not be reflected in the balance sheet, so the book value of stocks and the market value are not equal. When enterprises repurchase, they mainly refer to the market value of stocks, so the cost of repurchasing stocks often has a premium relative to the book value. Therefore, whether it is transferred to treasury stocks after repurchase, used as a deduction item when calculating shareholders' equity, or retained earnings account is offset when cancelled after repurchase, as long as the premium on the cost of repurchased stocks is too large, it may lead to The retained earnings account turned negative, and even caused the company's overall net assets to show a negative value.</b></p><p>Take Starbucks Corporation, for example. In the annual report for fiscal year 2019 (from September 30, 2018 to September 30, 2019) released by Starbucks, the company's total assets dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018 to US $19.22 billion, but its total liabilities dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018. US $22.98 billion rose to US $25.45 billion, which means that Starbucks' net assets, that is, owner's equity, dropped from US $1.18 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-US $6.23 billion in fiscal year 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0772be7e56e10608ecbc5ec6b38ac32\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judging from the shareholder equity breakdown account in Starbucks' balance sheet, the main reason why the company's net assets were less than 0 in 2019 is that the retained earnings account has dropped significantly.</b>In fiscal year 2018, Starbucks' retained earnings still had a balance of nearly US $1.5 billion, but by the end of fiscal year 2019, retained earnings dropped sharply to-US $5.77 billion, which directly led to Starbucks' shareholders' equity turning negative significantly. Since then, the company's retained earnings account has been Maintain a negative state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec889287bc85df1b916c06e198a16507\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The main reason for the negative retained earnings is stock repurchases.</b>Take the first negative retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 as an example. During fiscal year 2019, Starbucks conducted a large number of stock repurchases, and the number of issued share capital dropped from 1.31 billion shares in fiscal year 2018 to 1.18 billion shares. The total share capital decreased by US $100,000, the capital reserve decreased by US $610 million, and the premium part of corporate stock repurchases offset retained earnings by as much as US $9.52 billion.</p><p>From the perspective of changes in owner's equity, the increase or decrease of Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 was mainly affected by changes in accounting policies, net profit, stock repurchases and cash dividends. If the impact of stock repurchases is not taken into account, changes in accounting policies and net profits will increase retained earnings by US $496 million and US $3.599 billion respectively. Even with a cash dividend of US $1.8 billion, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 will still be higher than that at the beginning of the period. increase. However, under the influence of stock repurchases, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 not only did not increase, but decreased significantly, and even experienced a large negative value, ultimately making net assets less than 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c366d6c37385579e78b67920cd8cf623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the financial treatment of shares repurchased and transferred to treasury shares, we can refer to the case of McDonald's Corporation. As early as fiscal year 2016, McDonald's net assets were already less than 0; Since then, McDonald's has continued to issue bonds to repurchase tradable shares and transfer them to treasury stock, resulting in a continuous decline in the company's net assets. As of the end of fiscal year 2019 (December 31, 2019), McDonald's total assets rose from US $32.8 billion at the end of the previous period to US $47.5 billion, while total liabilities also rose significantly from US $39.1 billion to US $55.7 billion. Therefore, McDonald's Shareholder equity dropped from-US $6.3 billion at the end of 2018 to-US $8.2 billion, a record low. Although the company's shareholders' equity has rebounded in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, it still remains negative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74d65757489198ea8fd29d1769560c54\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the perspective of the breakdown of shareholders' equity, the continued decline of McDonald's shareholders' equity in 2019 was mainly due to the continued rise in the cost of treasury shares.</b>The values of capital reserve, retained earnings and other comprehensive income accounts that affect shareholders' equity in fiscal year 2019 all increased compared with fiscal year 2018, while the equity account remained unchanged. Only the allowance item for treasury shares dropped from-61.5 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-66.3 billion US dollars (which means that the cost of purchasing treasury shares increased from 61.5 billion US dollars to 66.3 billion US dollars), and resulted in a significant decline in shareholders' equity. Although the cost of treasury shares continues to rise in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, due to the significant increase in capital reserves and retained earnings accounts, shareholders' equity as a whole has rebounded slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a6095fde99dbb62d4aed332b2ec0f00\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the statement of changes in owner's equity, in fiscal year 2019, McDonald's continued to repurchase 25 million shares, and the total repurchase cost reached US $4.98 billion; At the same time, 4.2 million treasury shares were used to complete the stock exercise subscription plan, and the amount of treasury shares transferred out was US $180 million. Therefore, as of the end of fiscal year 2019, McDonald's repurchased a total of 914 million treasury shares, and the cumulative total cost of repurchasing treasury shares rose from US $61.5 billion to US $66.3 billion, resulting in a continued decline in shareholder equity to-US $8.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1653e1d47f48f71ec3b559f0778ebed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Stock repurchases are conducive to driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>3.1 The main logic of buybacks driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>There are two main mechanisms for repurchases to promote the rise of stock prices. First, listed companies can directly increase the demand for the company's stocks to increase the stock price by repurchasing stocks, which is also the most direct channel for stock repurchases to have an impact.</b></p><p><b>In fact, since the financial crisis in 2008, listed companies themselves have been a very important participant in the US stock market.</b>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve, between 2009 and 2021, among the major players in the equity market, ETF funds have accumulated a net purchase of US $2.77 trillion in stocks, and U.S. households and non-profit institutions have accumulated a net purchase of US $1.17 trillion. Mutual funds and other financial institutions have accumulated net sales of US $90.1 billion and US $2.27 trillion in equity assets respectively. The amount traded by non-financial companies to buy back shares has soared sharply in the past decade, with the cumulative amount of transactions in this part alone reaching nearly $5 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15b3c3aacf75c2cbd431cf148c3a3c19\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9120a876d16c099ebeb3de8eeb78c05d\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We can assume that Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares and simulate its stock price performance before and after implementing the share repurchase to study the impact of the repurchase. According to the financial valuation model, the company's market value depends on indicators such as future cash flow or net profit, so the behavior of stock repurchase will not affect the company's total market value. We assume that before the repurchase, Company A had 20 billion outstanding shares, each worth 10 yuan, and the total market value was 200 billion yuan; This time, Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares. After the repurchase, there are still 16 billion shares in circulation. Since the total market value remains unchanged at 200 billion yuan, the price of each share will rise to 12.5 yuan, which is the same as the repurchase. Compared with before, the stock price rose by 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8de2f35668d54b51facdda584daeebe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The second mechanism by which buybacks drive stock prices higher is by improving financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies.</b></p><p>Since Company A's repurchase behavior will not lead to changes in the company's net profit, the net profit before and after the repurchase is 50 billion yuan, so after the repurchase, Company A's EPS will rise from 2.5 yuan to 3.125 yuan, an increase of 25%.</p><p>The same is true for the stock market as a whole. Historical data shows that the trend of S&P 500 EPS is highly consistent with the trend of S&P 500 repurchase scale. From the trend point of view, the trend of S&P 500 Index EPS and repurchase scale has roughly gone through three stages since 2000. From 2000 to 2007, the index EPS increased slowly, and the scale of company repurchases also continued to increase. Index repurchases The amount of reduced share capital continues to rise. During the financial crisis in 2008, EPS fell sharply, and corporate buybacks also fell off a cliff. With the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, the EPS and repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index have been on the rise again since 2010. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the two experienced a short decline simultaneously.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3dc2083f3850c07834b3b5601694d4\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As an important financial indicator in the investment research system, ROE will also increase significantly after the company repurchases stocks. Take Apple as an example. Before 2012, there was basically no stock repurchase of its listed companies. 2013 was a turning point, and then the amount of repurchases began to soar sharply. If we look at the growth rate of net profit alone, Apple's fiscal year 2012 was US $41.7 billion and fiscal year 2021 was US $94.7 billion. The annualized compound growth rate of net profit is only 9.5%. When this growth rate is put in the A-share market, it is not a high-tech company at all, but more like a public utility company. But through a large number of share buybacks, Apple's ROE has increased from about 30% in 2013 to 150% in 2021. By fiscal year 2021, Apple's repurchases of common shares will be as high as US $86 billion, which can almost offset the net profit of that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2085bad141a0aa1528e6132dcceafae8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stock repurchases will not only increase the ROE of listed companies, but even make the company's ROE turn negative in more exaggerated cases. In the A-share market, we often see companies with negative ROE. In this case, listed companies are losing money, so the net profit (numerator) is negative. In the U.S. stock market, many companies have made their net assets (denominator) negative because of too many repurchases. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid. The following table reports the changes in McDonald's stock repurchases and ROE from fiscal years 2007 to 2021. It can be seen that before 2014, the company's ROE was roughly 35%. Then a large number of repurchases began. In 2015, the ROE reached 63%. After 2016, the company's share capital was negative, making the ROE negative.</p><p>Negative net assets mean that the company is insolvent in traditional textbooks, which is a signal that it is on the verge of bankruptcy. However, in the current US stock market, the stock prices of many such companies continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b35b389852b97d68f11e2f01e54e78b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Stock repurchases will push up stock price yields</b></p><p><b>Stock returns come from Dividend dividends and changes in market value, and changes in market value are affected by profits and valuations. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term investment, stock returns can be decomposed into three parts: dividend repurchase income, stock valuation and corporate profits. Among them, dividend repurchase income occupies a very important position in the total stock return. In the American stock market, dividend repurchase income can even be said to be the main source of income for stock assets. Therefore, stock repurchases will have a significant impact on stock price returns, and we can see that the gap between the total return index and the ordinary index will increase with the repurchase.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bbb8fd064eb67ec1fa8705dca4d95dc\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the investment period of more than 30 years since the beginning of 1989, even after two major crises, the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008, investing in U.S. stocks will still bring very rich returns, among which dividend income occupies a very important position, which is reflected in the gap between the long-term trend of the S&P 500 Total Return Index and the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Total Return Index has been adjusted on the basis of the S&P 500 Index, and the dividends of sample stocks are included in the index income. The cumulative increase of the adjusted S&P 500 Total Return Index is nearly 30 times, while the increase of the S&P 500 Index is only 14.2 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3438f479b888125f194b418925a29206\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Philip U. Straehl et al. (The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal) An in-depth study was conducted on the long-term yield of the U.S. stock market from 1871 to 2014. The study found that, including the Dividend distributed by the company and the income generated by stock repurchases, dividend repurchase income can explain the historical yield of U.S. stocks. vast majority,<b>Especially after the rapid development of stock repurchases in 1970, the impact of repurchases on improving stock price returns was more significant.</b>From 1871 to 2014, the real yield of U.S. stocks (after excluding inflation) was about 7%, of which Dividend's yield was 4.5%. If the income from company repurchases is considered, the total dividend repurchase yield will rise to 4.89%, accounting for more than two-thirds of the real yield of U.S. stocks. The above conclusion is still valid after adjusting the research range of U.S. stocks. From 1901 to 2014, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.58%, of which the part from Dividend's income reached 4.29%. Including the corporate repurchase part, the total dividend repurchase The rate of return reached 4.78%; From 1970 to 2014, the Dividend income generated by U.S. stocks was 3.03%. After taking corporate buybacks into account, this part of the income rose to 4.26%. During the same period, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad0938835357fb43662b8316e408bdd\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 After the repurchase, the stock price-to-book ratio will change significantly compared with the P/E</b></p><p>While share buybacks can boost stock prices, they do not necessarily affect valuations. To be more accurate, stock repurchases will not affect P/E, but will increase the price-to-book ratio. Therefore, after listed companies repurchase shares substantially, we will see significant changes in PB relative to PE.</p><p>The main reason for this difference is that the share repurchase will not affect the company's total market value and net profit, but will lead to a decrease in equity, which will cause the company's price-to-book ratio to increase significantly while the P/E remains unchanged. We assume that Company A has repurchased 20% of its shares at the market price. After the repurchase, the company's total equity will drop from 200 billion yuan to 160 billion yuan. Under the condition that the company's total market value remains unchanged, the price-to-book ratio will increase from the original 1 times to 1.25 times. Since the company's net profit has not been affected, P/E will continue to maintain the level of 4 times before the repurchase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b19d2fc9b3c26a462087305561545\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even from the perspective of the whole market, there is this relationship between P/E and price-to-book ratio. We have standardized the P/E and price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 Index. From the trend point of view, with the substantial increase in the repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index after 2010, the PB increase of the S&P 500 Index is significantly higher than that of PE. Larger, from the beginning of 2010 to April 25, 2022, the PE of the S&P 500 Index has increased from 19 times to 21.3 times, and the PB has increased from 2.0 times to 4.3 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d00d74505bd293d3aabeddec93c61174\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Under the stock repurchase, the company's stock price has increased significantly, but P/E has not been affected. Therefore, we see that the current P/E of the S&P 500 index is 21.3 times, which is 56.9% in the historical quantile since 1991. Far from overvalued. This is because the company's EPS has also increased accordingly, but in fact, for the company's value, the increase in EPS brought about by the reduction of equity capital has not created more value for the company, and to a greater extent, it is only a digital game. It is precisely for this reason that if we look at the price-to-book ratio, the current price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 index is 4.3 times, which has reached the historical quantile of 88.6% since the beginning of 1991.</p><p><b>4. Potential risks of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>4.1 Stock market repurchases may lead to a decline in market liquidity</b></p><p><b>The long-term bull market of U.S. stocks in the past ten years has been the second longest-lasting bull market in the history of U.S. stocks since World War II, but it is the only bull market that has emerged against the background of a significant decline in trading volume.</b>Since 2010, as the index price continues to rise, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index has declined year by year. At the end of March 2022, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index was only 17.4 billion, which has dropped to the level of the late 1990s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/061522652b140a8b126f90d429219659\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>An important reason for the price increase and volume decline of U.S. stocks is that a large number of share repurchases by listed companies have reduced the number of shares in circulation in the market, which will also lead to a decline in market liquidity. Take Apple as an example. Since 2013, the company has continuously increased the scale of stock repurchases, and the current number of outstanding shares in the market is 16.32 billion shares, a decrease of nearly 40% compared with the peak level at the end of 2012.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289a5dc4fdb8aaa08f16cc8f333300d2\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the sharp increase in the scale of passive investment is also an important reason for the sharp decline in U.S. stock trading volume, and U.S. stock repurchases can strengthen the positive feedback logic of passive investment in the bull market and further promote the increase in the scale of passive investment.</b>The repurchase of stocks by listed companies has brought about an increase in stock prices. Since passive investment has the advantages of low fee rates and better medium-and long-term performance in the bull market than active funds, investors have bought passive funds one after another, and the increased funds have flowed into index constituent stocks, superimposed on listed companies. The company continues to buy back stocks, further pushing the stock index up and increasing the scale of capital inflows into passive investment. This positive feedback model has continued in the U.S. stock market over the past decade, so we have seen that the asset size of ETFs in the U.S. stock market has increased significantly since 2009.</p><p><b>In the case of a sharp decline in liquidity, once the upward trend of the index is reversed, the positive feedback mechanism of passive investment will also be reversed immediately, which will contribute to the decline of the market. Such a large-scale gushing of funds can easily cause a stampede, and there is a high probability that it will bring very serious consequences.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04884a97efb5559e375ab06921927940\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.2 Repurchases prompt listed companies to use financial leverage to the extreme</b></p><p>Repurchase itself can be regarded as a kind of dividend policy of the company. The change in recent years is that the method of \"bond issuance and repurchase\" is favored by more and more companies, which makes listed companies use financial leverage to the extreme.</p><p>Many listed companies have repurchased a large number of shares, making their net assets negative and their asset-liability ratio rise to more than 100%, forming an insolvency situation in corporate financial management in the traditional sense. McDonald's, which was cited earlier when introducing the financial principles involved in repurchases, is an example. The company's asset-liability ratio was only 63% in 2014, and reached a maximum of 119% in 2018. In recent years, it still exceeds 100%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7204db63d2dfbd643ab86e4b40f7980\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Starbucks is another example. In 2017, the asset-liability ratio was only 62%, reached a maximum of 132% in 2019, and it will still be 117% in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93949197cb727b87db6cec84808a0901\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The debt leverage ratio of listed companies in the United States is ridiculously high, and financial leverage is used to the extreme. Take the S&P 500 constituent stocks in the table below as an example. The 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratios all have asset-liability ratios exceeding 90%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a3ce4721d3e0185ce386b5657c76cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"988\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Financial leverage and asset-liability ratio are important indicators to measure financial risks, and also important reference factors in corporate credit rating system. The increase of corporate financial leverage and asset-liability ratio will inevitably lead to the increase of financial risks, and will inevitably affect the credit rating of enterprises.</p><p>We have compiled statistics on the current credit ratings of the main companies constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index in the United States. The data shows that more than 80% of the corporate entities in the S&P 500 Index constituent stocks have investment grade credit ratings, and more than 10% of corporate investment entities have speculative credit ratings. In addition, it is worth noting that among the current investment-grade main companies, the credit rating of most companies is the lowest level of investment-grade, that is, Baa, which means that in the case of large fluctuations in the external economic environment, most companies may face the risk of lowering their credit rating from investment grade to speculative grade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c25dff19b1c181a4f5a0e5ed1182387\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e45b03dcf8e324c10f228abce824fe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the sample range of companies is narrowed to the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks, we can see that the proportion of companies with speculative credit ratings has increased significantly.</b>Under Moody's classification rating, among these 50 companies, the number of speculative-grade companies accounts for 23.3%, and under the S&P rating classification it is 36.2%, both of which are significantly higher than the proportion of corresponding classifications under all S&P 500 constituent stocks. Similarly, among investment-grade entity companies, Baa (Moody's's lowest investment-grade rating) or BBB (Standard & Poor's lowest investment-grade rating) accounts for an overwhelming proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba608d69d552164772f0c78db122613c\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1825ece9b330eff6989d428d65b10aeb\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The impact of large-scale bond repurchase on corporate credit rating is significant. In 2015, the Moody's credit rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds dropped by two consecutive levels, mainly because it planned to increase the issuance of Dividend and stock repurchases through bond issuance. In May 2015, Moody's downgraded the rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds from A2 to A3. Part of the reason for this downgrade is that McDonald's plans to accelerate the return of $8 billion to $9 billion to shareholders through dividend distribution and stock buybacks. Moody's believes that McDonald's guidance to accelerate stock buybacks and distribute high Dividend is a manifestation of its aggressive financial policy, which will lead to a sharp increase in debt levels. In November 2015, Moody's downgraded McDonald's corporate credit rating to Baa1 again as McDonald's announced that it would increase the amount returned to shareholders through bond issuance.</p><p>In addition, in 2015, Standard & Poor's downgraded McDonald's rating twice, and McDonald's long-term issuer credit rating dropped from A to A-and then to BBB +. In the same year, Fitch Ratings directly downgraded McDonald's long-term issuer default rating from A to BBB +, and again to BBB in 2016.</p><p>The same is true of Starbucks. In November 2017, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to A3. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks planned to return $15 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases from 2018 to 2020, and part of the returned funds would come from additional debt. Moody's believes that this will lead to a significant increase in debt levels and a substantial deterioration in credit indicators, so it downgraded Starbucks' corporate bond rating. In June 2018, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to Baa1 again. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks decided to significantly increase debt to increase the amount returned to shareholders to $25 billion. Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings also downgraded their corporate ratings after Starbucks decided to issue bonds to repurchase shares, and Starbucks' rating dropped from A to BBB +.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0625be465abe14191484b6704a99229\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the high debt leverage ratio itself is not a sufficient condition for the stock price to fall, but it does also lay the hidden danger of corporate debt default. Especially in the Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, the credit risk caused by high financial leverage is continuing to rise.</b></p><p><b>5. The experience of U.S. stock repurchase on A-shares</b></p><p>Compared with the U.S. stock market, the current scale of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies is still at an extremely low level. As of April 26, 2022, in fiscal year 2021, the total amount used by U.S. listed companies to repurchase common shares and preferred shares reached 7.37 trillion yuan, while the amount of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies during the same period was only 121.1 billion yuan, less than 2% of U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18608cdb64ca03bda791eb503fb57cdb\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, from the trend point of view, after the release of the new regulations on stock repurchase in 2018, the enthusiasm of A-share listed companies for repurchases has increased significantly, and the scale of repurchases has expanded significantly. In the whole year of 2012, only 11 A-share listed companies conducted share repurchases, with a total repurchase amount of 2.5 billion yuan; For the whole year of 2021, the number of listed companies conducting A-share stock repurchases has risen to 994, and the cumulative repurchase amount for the whole year has reached 121.1 billion yuan.</p><p>In the article \"Enlightenment from Previous A-share Repurchase Booms\", we review the performance of listed companies in previous A-share repurchase booms, and found that 1) undervalued companies had obvious excess returns after the release of the repurchase plan; 2) The proportion of the company's repurchase amount to the total market value is positively correlated with excess returns; 3) Company repurchases have a long-term supporting effect on stock prices.</p><p>Therefore, whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support the stock price to a certain extent or even push the stock price up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies. On the one hand, we believe that as A-share listed companies conduct more corporate repurchases in the future, there is still potential room for the company's stock price to rise. On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, there has been a new round of stock market repurchase boom in the market. As of April 15th, the amount of repurchases implemented by listed companies during the year was about 27.2 billion yuan, and the number of companies that have implemented repurchases during the year exceeded 400. More and more listed companies' repurchases also highlight their confidence in the future market to a certain extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4606ec8bf026e232ce9427bc25c625f\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(All individual stock information involved in this report is only a summary of public information, and does not constitute any profit forecast and investment rating)</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zxjzzl","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Understand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnderstand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">追寻价值之路</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-28 14:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support stock prices to a certain extent or even push stock prices up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies.<b>Core conclusions</b></p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest. After years of development, it has become a common means in the capital market. Especially in the last ten years, the scale of repurchase by listed companies in the United States has soared sharply.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the U.S. stock market, this article discusses and sorts out issues related to stock repurchases. The main contents are divided into five parts:</p><p>The first part introduces the basic concept of stock repurchase, including four common ways of repurchase and the motivation of stock repurchase; The second part discusses the related financial treatment of stock repurchase, involving whether to choose the financial treatment of canceling shares after repurchase and why some enterprises have negative net assets after repurchase; The third part sorts out the logic that stock repurchases are conducive to stock price rises. One is to directly increase the demand for company stocks, and the other is to improve financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies. In addition, judging from the performance of U.S. stocks, stock repurchases It is an important part of stock price yields, and the impact of repurchases on price-to-book ratios is more significant than P/E; The fourth part discusses the potential risks of stock repurchase, mainly including the decline of market liquidity and the high financial leverage risk of listed companies caused by repurchase; The fifth part is an introduction to the current repurchase situation of A shares and the experience of US stock repurchase on A shares. Risk warning: Repurchases increase financial leverage risks, historical experience does not represent the future, the macro economy is less than expected, and overseas markets fluctuate significantly</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. Introduction to the basic concepts of stock repurchase</b></p><p><b>1.1 What is a share repurchase?</b></p><p>Stock repurchase refers to the behavior of listed companies using cash and other means to repurchase a certain amount of outstanding stocks of the company from the stock market, which will reduce the number of outstanding stocks of the company, thereby achieving market value management, equity incentives, and stabilizing stock prices. and other positive effects.</p><p>There are two main sources of funds for enterprises to repurchase stocks: one is internal funds, including net profits obtained from daily operations of enterprises or cash sources such as government tax cuts and tax rebates, as well as self-owned funds such as the original retained earnings of enterprises; The second is external funds, which borrow money and add leverage through bond issuance and other means to achieve share repurchase.</p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest, especially after the 1980s. Previously, because western European and American countries advocated the theory of maintaining corporate capital, and the repurchase behavior itself was suspected of market manipulation, few companies conducted stock repurchases. It was not until the 1980s that stock repurchases began to gradually develop. After more than 40 years of development, stock repurchase has become a common means in developed capital markets. It is widely used to optimize the capital structure, enhance the company's value, or send positive signals when the company's stock price is undervalued.</p><p><b>1.2 Four common ways of stock repurchase</b></p><p>According to the different methods of determining the repurchase price, stock repurchase can generally be divided into four basic methods: open market operation, cash offer repurchase, agreement repurchase and transferable sale right repurchase.</p><p>Open market repurchase is a popular stock repurchase method in the current US market. Listed companies that repurchase shares through the open market will directly repurchase shares in the open market at the current market price. Stock repurchases under this method are more flexible. Listed companies can freely decide factors such as the time and quantity of repurchases according to their own circumstances. Moreover, stock repurchases under this method do not need to pay additional premiums.</p><p>Another more common method of stock repurchase is offer repurchase. There are generally two pricing methods for listed companies to repurchase stocks through tender offers. One is to use a fixed price to issue an offer to shareholders within an agreed period to purchase a certain number of stocks. Listed companies generally choose this pricing method when they need a large number of company stocks in a short period of time. However, a sharp increase in demand in the short term will lead to paying a certain premium for repurchasing stocks. Another pricing method under tender offer repurchase is Dutch auction repurchase, which will give the company greater flexibility in the repurchase price, so it is also widely used. In Dutch auction repurchase, the listed company sets the range of repurchase price and the quantity planned to repurchase, and then shareholders express the number of shares they are willing to sell at a certain level within the price range. Finally, the listed company will summarize the wishes of all shareholders and repurchase shares according to the low to high price order until the established repurchase quantity of the listed company is reached.</p><p>Agreement buybacks are less transparent compared to open market buybacks and offer buybacks. Because under the agreement repurchase method, listed companies directly enter into private agreements with some shareholders to repurchase shares according to the price and quantity agreed in the agreement. This method is relatively free in terms of pricing, transaction time and payment method, and usually the negotiated price is lower than the market price.</p><p>Transferable right of sale repurchase is a special way of stock repurchase. The company that implements stock repurchase gives shareholders the right to sell their stocks to the company at a specific price within a certain period of time. Once this right is formed, it can be separated and traded with the attached stocks. Listed companies issue transferable authorizations to their shareholders, and shareholders who are unwilling to sell their shares can sell this right separately to meet the different demands of various shareholders.</p><p><b>1.3 Why Stock Repurchase?</b></p><p>The benefits of share repurchases are multifaceted. From the perspective of the company as a whole, whether it is internal or external funds to repurchase shares, it can improve the capital structure of the enterprise and reduce the cost of supervision and restraint on the company's management. The way of issuing bonds to repurchase shares can also make use of the tax shield effect of debts to achieve reasonable tax avoidance, and urge the management to focus on the debt repayment and long-term sustainable operation of the enterprise. For those shareholders who sell their stocks in the stock repurchase plan, they can sell their stocks to obtain liquidity. In addition, compared with the direct distribution of cash Dividend, since capital gains are generally not taxed or the tax rate is lower, effective tax avoidance can be achieved by distributing dividends through stock repurchase. Shareholders who still hold shares after the company implements the repurchase plan can also benefit. As the net capital of the enterprise will be significantly reduced after the completion of the stock repurchase, under the condition that other conditions remain unchanged, the financial indicators such as the return on net assets, earnings per share, and net assets per share of the enterprise will all be significantly improved. If we classify the motivations of listed companies' stock repurchases, we can also classify them into the following four categories: one is financial motivation, the other is signal transmission appeal, the third is to reduce principal-agent risks, and the fourth is to increase company control to prevent hostile takeovers.</p><p><b>The financial motivation of listed companies to buy back shares is mainly related to their capital structure and dividend policy. Listed companies often buy back shares for financial reasons such as increasing earnings per share, improving capital structure and increasing shareholder wealth effect.</b>Specifically, the improvement of stock repurchase on the financial-related factors of listed companies is mainly reflected in four aspects:</p><p><b>First, improve the company's earnings per share.</b>Since buybacks will reduce the number of outstanding shares of listed companies, the decrease in the denominator when calculating earnings per share will directly lead to an increase in EPS, which may also increase the company's stock price.</p><p><b>Second, realize dividend tax avoidance and increase the shareholder wealth of listed companies.</b>Since the tax rate of cash dividends is higher than the tax rate of capital gains, cash return to shareholders by share repurchase instead of dividends can help shareholders achieve reasonable tax avoidance. In the PRC, the Dividend dividend income of individual investors whose shareholding period is less than one month is fully included in the taxable income, and the actual tax burden is 20%, but capital gains are temporarily exempted from income tax.</p><p><b>Thirdly, optimize the capital structure of the company and improve the value of the company through the tax shield effect.</b>No matter how the stock repurchase is carried out, it will reduce the company's owner's equity, and bond repurchase will even increase the company's debt, thus increasing the company's financial leverage ratio and producing a leverage effect. Therefore, for companies with low financial leverage, this can not only optimize the company's capital structure, but also make use of the tax shield effect brought by financing interest to improve the company's value.</p><p><b>Fourth, stock repurchases have high financial flexibility.</b>There are generally two ways for listed companies to return cash to shareholders: cash dividends and stock repurchases. However, the way of paying cash dividends usually makes shareholders expect future dividends, which requires the company to have stable cash flow. However, stock repurchase occurs occasionally. Listed companies can choose the amount, quantity, time, etc. of repurchase relatively freely under the stock repurchase method, which has great financial flexibility compared with the stock repurchase method.</p><p><b>The signal transmission appeal of stock repurchase is mainly based on the assumption of information asymmetry. Listed companies can transmit the signal to the market that the company's stock price is undervalued through stock repurchase, because the company will only carry out stock repurchase when it thinks that its stock price is undervalued. Sending a positive signal to the market in this way has a positive impact on the company's short-term operating income.</b></p><p><b>Share buybacks also help reduce principal-agent risk.</b>Because the management right and ownership of listed companies are separated, and the goals of agent and principal are not completely consistent, it may be that the principal can't clearly understand the goal bias of agent, thus causing the interests of principal to be damaged. Especially when the company's free cash flow is relatively abundant, the company's management may make over-investment or consumption for its own interests, thus encroaching on the interests of the company's shareholders. In this case, the company returns cash to shareholders through stock repurchase, which not only improves the efficiency of cash flow use, but also reduces agency costs and principal-agent risks.</p><p><b>Increasing control right through stock repurchase, preventing equity dilution and hostile takeover are also one of the motives of stock repurchase of listed companies.</b>In the 1980s, with the rise of leveraged mergers and acquisitions in the United States, hostile takeover activities gradually increased. In order to prevent companies from being hostile takeover, listed companies have repurchased shares to increase stock prices, reduce outstanding shares and resist hostile takeover. While there are fewer hostile takeovers now, using the repurchased shares for management's equity incentive program also helps avoid dilution.</p><p><b>2. Financial treatment of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>2.1 The difference between stock cancellation or not after share repurchase</b></p><p>For listed companies, after the stock repurchase is completed, the company can cancel the repurchased shares or keep the repurchased shares as \"treasury shares\".</p><p>The \"treasury shares\" retained by the company still belong to the issued shares, which are held by the company itself, and can be sold to the market at an appropriate time, issued convertible bonds or used as incentives for employees. However, the characteristics of \"treasury shares\" are similar to unissued stocks. \"Treasury shares\" have no voting rights, nor the right to pay dividends, and cannot be realized even after the company goes bankrupt. Therefore, \"treasury shares\" do not participate in the calculation of indicators such as earnings per share, return on net assets and net assets per share.</p><p><b>Therefore, after the stock repurchase is completed, whether the repurchased stocks are cancelled or not, it will not affect financial indicators such as earnings per share, net assets per share and return on net assets, because even if they are retained as \"treasury stocks\", these stocks will not participate in the calculation of these indicators.</b>From this perspective, there will be no big difference between cancelling and not canceling the repurchased shares for companies.</p><p><b>However, in most cases, enterprises will choose to keep the repurchased stocks as \"treasury stocks\" after the stock repurchase is completed.</b>We have counted the handling of stock repurchases of the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks. Among them, 30 listed companies have chosen to repurchase stocks and retained \"treasury shares\", and the other 20 listed companies have chosen to cancel the repurchased stocks or have not carried out stock repurchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485e1f54b04ed2c89a5d83b631a23a53\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The reason why enterprises tend to keep \"treasury stocks\" is mainly because \"treasury stocks\" themselves can bring certain positive significance to enterprises.</b></p><p>First, it can provide the company with sufficient flexibility in terms of financing and reduce financing costs. Since \"treasury shares\" are still issued shares, the company can sell \"treasury shares\" when there is a financing need; Compared with allotment of shares or issuance of new shares, the cost of obtaining funds by selling \"treasury shares\" is lower, which can not only save the supervision and intermediary costs related to issuing shares, but also avoid selling at a discount when the market permits.</p><p>Second, it is conducive to the implementation of incentive plans for employees or management. \"Treasury shares\" are one of the important stock sources for companies to issue equity incentives to employees and management. Therefore, for U.S. listed companies, retaining \"treasury shares\" can facilitate the implementation of equity incentive plans, etc., and avoid the lack of sufficient shares. The source of shares makes the incentive plan unable to be implemented.</p><p>The third is to facilitate the company's mergers and acquisitions and prevent the company from suffering hostile takeover. Merger and acquisition through treasury share exchange can provide certain flexibility for the company's merger and acquisition behavior; In addition, the behavior of retaining \"treasury shares\" after the repurchase can also prevent the company from being hostile takeovers. On the one hand, the repurchase pushes up the stock price, which makes it more difficult for the acquirer. On the other hand, \"treasury shares\" can supplement the number of shares in circulation of the company. Provide buffer time for the company to deal with hostile takeovers.</p><p>Fourth, it is conducive to the stability of stock prices. When there is irrational fluctuation in the market, enterprises can stabilize the price fluctuation by adjusting the supply of outstanding stocks, stabilize the stock price, and avoid the company being greatly affected by irrational factors such as market sentiment.</p><p><b>2.2 How does repurchase lead to negative net assets of enterprises?</b></p><p>Among the benefits that stock repurchases can bring, a very important one is that stock repurchases can increase EPS and the company's overall ROE. This is mainly because stock repurchases will reduce the company's net capital, and a significant decline in the denominator will bring Significant improvements including EPS and ROE. In even more exaggerated circumstances, some U.S.-listed companies have repurchased a large number of issued shares in the form of bond repurchases, resulting in a situation where total liabilities are greater than total assets and negative net assets. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid.</p><p>So how do these listed companies in the United States make their net assets negative through buybacks?<b>The main reason behind this is that there is a huge difference between the book value of equity assets in the financial statements and the market value of stocks in the secondary market. The stock price in the secondary market will not be reflected in the balance sheet, so the book value of stocks and the market value are not equal. When enterprises repurchase, they mainly refer to the market value of stocks, so the cost of repurchasing stocks often has a premium relative to the book value. Therefore, whether it is transferred to treasury stocks after repurchase, used as a deduction item when calculating shareholders' equity, or retained earnings account is offset when cancelled after repurchase, as long as the premium on the cost of repurchased stocks is too large, it may lead to The retained earnings account turned negative, and even caused the company's overall net assets to show a negative value.</b></p><p>Take Starbucks Corporation, for example. In the annual report for fiscal year 2019 (from September 30, 2018 to September 30, 2019) released by Starbucks, the company's total assets dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018 to US $19.22 billion, but its total liabilities dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018. US $22.98 billion rose to US $25.45 billion, which means that Starbucks' net assets, that is, owner's equity, dropped from US $1.18 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-US $6.23 billion in fiscal year 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0772be7e56e10608ecbc5ec6b38ac32\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judging from the shareholder equity breakdown account in Starbucks' balance sheet, the main reason why the company's net assets were less than 0 in 2019 is that the retained earnings account has dropped significantly.</b>In fiscal year 2018, Starbucks' retained earnings still had a balance of nearly US $1.5 billion, but by the end of fiscal year 2019, retained earnings dropped sharply to-US $5.77 billion, which directly led to Starbucks' shareholders' equity turning negative significantly. Since then, the company's retained earnings account has been Maintain a negative state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec889287bc85df1b916c06e198a16507\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The main reason for the negative retained earnings is stock repurchases.</b>Take the first negative retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 as an example. During fiscal year 2019, Starbucks conducted a large number of stock repurchases, and the number of issued share capital dropped from 1.31 billion shares in fiscal year 2018 to 1.18 billion shares. The total share capital decreased by US $100,000, the capital reserve decreased by US $610 million, and the premium part of corporate stock repurchases offset retained earnings by as much as US $9.52 billion.</p><p>From the perspective of changes in owner's equity, the increase or decrease of Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 was mainly affected by changes in accounting policies, net profit, stock repurchases and cash dividends. If the impact of stock repurchases is not taken into account, changes in accounting policies and net profits will increase retained earnings by US $496 million and US $3.599 billion respectively. Even with a cash dividend of US $1.8 billion, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 will still be higher than that at the beginning of the period. increase. However, under the influence of stock repurchases, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 not only did not increase, but decreased significantly, and even experienced a large negative value, ultimately making net assets less than 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c366d6c37385579e78b67920cd8cf623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the financial treatment of shares repurchased and transferred to treasury shares, we can refer to the case of McDonald's Corporation. As early as fiscal year 2016, McDonald's net assets were already less than 0; Since then, McDonald's has continued to issue bonds to repurchase tradable shares and transfer them to treasury stock, resulting in a continuous decline in the company's net assets. As of the end of fiscal year 2019 (December 31, 2019), McDonald's total assets rose from US $32.8 billion at the end of the previous period to US $47.5 billion, while total liabilities also rose significantly from US $39.1 billion to US $55.7 billion. Therefore, McDonald's Shareholder equity dropped from-US $6.3 billion at the end of 2018 to-US $8.2 billion, a record low. Although the company's shareholders' equity has rebounded in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, it still remains negative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74d65757489198ea8fd29d1769560c54\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the perspective of the breakdown of shareholders' equity, the continued decline of McDonald's shareholders' equity in 2019 was mainly due to the continued rise in the cost of treasury shares.</b>The values of capital reserve, retained earnings and other comprehensive income accounts that affect shareholders' equity in fiscal year 2019 all increased compared with fiscal year 2018, while the equity account remained unchanged. Only the allowance item for treasury shares dropped from-61.5 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-66.3 billion US dollars (which means that the cost of purchasing treasury shares increased from 61.5 billion US dollars to 66.3 billion US dollars), and resulted in a significant decline in shareholders' equity. Although the cost of treasury shares continues to rise in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, due to the significant increase in capital reserves and retained earnings accounts, shareholders' equity as a whole has rebounded slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a6095fde99dbb62d4aed332b2ec0f00\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the statement of changes in owner's equity, in fiscal year 2019, McDonald's continued to repurchase 25 million shares, and the total repurchase cost reached US $4.98 billion; At the same time, 4.2 million treasury shares were used to complete the stock exercise subscription plan, and the amount of treasury shares transferred out was US $180 million. Therefore, as of the end of fiscal year 2019, McDonald's repurchased a total of 914 million treasury shares, and the cumulative total cost of repurchasing treasury shares rose from US $61.5 billion to US $66.3 billion, resulting in a continued decline in shareholder equity to-US $8.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1653e1d47f48f71ec3b559f0778ebed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Stock repurchases are conducive to driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>3.1 The main logic of buybacks driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>There are two main mechanisms for repurchases to promote the rise of stock prices. First, listed companies can directly increase the demand for the company's stocks to increase the stock price by repurchasing stocks, which is also the most direct channel for stock repurchases to have an impact.</b></p><p><b>In fact, since the financial crisis in 2008, listed companies themselves have been a very important participant in the US stock market.</b>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve, between 2009 and 2021, among the major players in the equity market, ETF funds have accumulated a net purchase of US $2.77 trillion in stocks, and U.S. households and non-profit institutions have accumulated a net purchase of US $1.17 trillion. Mutual funds and other financial institutions have accumulated net sales of US $90.1 billion and US $2.27 trillion in equity assets respectively. The amount traded by non-financial companies to buy back shares has soared sharply in the past decade, with the cumulative amount of transactions in this part alone reaching nearly $5 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15b3c3aacf75c2cbd431cf148c3a3c19\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9120a876d16c099ebeb3de8eeb78c05d\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We can assume that Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares and simulate its stock price performance before and after implementing the share repurchase to study the impact of the repurchase. According to the financial valuation model, the company's market value depends on indicators such as future cash flow or net profit, so the behavior of stock repurchase will not affect the company's total market value. We assume that before the repurchase, Company A had 20 billion outstanding shares, each worth 10 yuan, and the total market value was 200 billion yuan; This time, Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares. After the repurchase, there are still 16 billion shares in circulation. Since the total market value remains unchanged at 200 billion yuan, the price of each share will rise to 12.5 yuan, which is the same as the repurchase. Compared with before, the stock price rose by 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8de2f35668d54b51facdda584daeebe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The second mechanism by which buybacks drive stock prices higher is by improving financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies.</b></p><p>Since Company A's repurchase behavior will not lead to changes in the company's net profit, the net profit before and after the repurchase is 50 billion yuan, so after the repurchase, Company A's EPS will rise from 2.5 yuan to 3.125 yuan, an increase of 25%.</p><p>The same is true for the stock market as a whole. Historical data shows that the trend of S&P 500 EPS is highly consistent with the trend of S&P 500 repurchase scale. From the trend point of view, the trend of S&P 500 Index EPS and repurchase scale has roughly gone through three stages since 2000. From 2000 to 2007, the index EPS increased slowly, and the scale of company repurchases also continued to increase. Index repurchases The amount of reduced share capital continues to rise. During the financial crisis in 2008, EPS fell sharply, and corporate buybacks also fell off a cliff. With the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, the EPS and repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index have been on the rise again since 2010. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the two experienced a short decline simultaneously.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3dc2083f3850c07834b3b5601694d4\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As an important financial indicator in the investment research system, ROE will also increase significantly after the company repurchases stocks. Take Apple as an example. Before 2012, there was basically no stock repurchase of its listed companies. 2013 was a turning point, and then the amount of repurchases began to soar sharply. If we look at the growth rate of net profit alone, Apple's fiscal year 2012 was US $41.7 billion and fiscal year 2021 was US $94.7 billion. The annualized compound growth rate of net profit is only 9.5%. When this growth rate is put in the A-share market, it is not a high-tech company at all, but more like a public utility company. But through a large number of share buybacks, Apple's ROE has increased from about 30% in 2013 to 150% in 2021. By fiscal year 2021, Apple's repurchases of common shares will be as high as US $86 billion, which can almost offset the net profit of that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2085bad141a0aa1528e6132dcceafae8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stock repurchases will not only increase the ROE of listed companies, but even make the company's ROE turn negative in more exaggerated cases. In the A-share market, we often see companies with negative ROE. In this case, listed companies are losing money, so the net profit (numerator) is negative. In the U.S. stock market, many companies have made their net assets (denominator) negative because of too many repurchases. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid. The following table reports the changes in McDonald's stock repurchases and ROE from fiscal years 2007 to 2021. It can be seen that before 2014, the company's ROE was roughly 35%. Then a large number of repurchases began. In 2015, the ROE reached 63%. After 2016, the company's share capital was negative, making the ROE negative.</p><p>Negative net assets mean that the company is insolvent in traditional textbooks, which is a signal that it is on the verge of bankruptcy. However, in the current US stock market, the stock prices of many such companies continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b35b389852b97d68f11e2f01e54e78b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Stock repurchases will push up stock price yields</b></p><p><b>Stock returns come from Dividend dividends and changes in market value, and changes in market value are affected by profits and valuations. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term investment, stock returns can be decomposed into three parts: dividend repurchase income, stock valuation and corporate profits. Among them, dividend repurchase income occupies a very important position in the total stock return. In the American stock market, dividend repurchase income can even be said to be the main source of income for stock assets. Therefore, stock repurchases will have a significant impact on stock price returns, and we can see that the gap between the total return index and the ordinary index will increase with the repurchase.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bbb8fd064eb67ec1fa8705dca4d95dc\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the investment period of more than 30 years since the beginning of 1989, even after two major crises, the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008, investing in U.S. stocks will still bring very rich returns, among which dividend income occupies a very important position, which is reflected in the gap between the long-term trend of the S&P 500 Total Return Index and the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Total Return Index has been adjusted on the basis of the S&P 500 Index, and the dividends of sample stocks are included in the index income. The cumulative increase of the adjusted S&P 500 Total Return Index is nearly 30 times, while the increase of the S&P 500 Index is only 14.2 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3438f479b888125f194b418925a29206\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Philip U. Straehl et al. (The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal) An in-depth study was conducted on the long-term yield of the U.S. stock market from 1871 to 2014. The study found that, including the Dividend distributed by the company and the income generated by stock repurchases, dividend repurchase income can explain the historical yield of U.S. stocks. vast majority,<b>Especially after the rapid development of stock repurchases in 1970, the impact of repurchases on improving stock price returns was more significant.</b>From 1871 to 2014, the real yield of U.S. stocks (after excluding inflation) was about 7%, of which Dividend's yield was 4.5%. If the income from company repurchases is considered, the total dividend repurchase yield will rise to 4.89%, accounting for more than two-thirds of the real yield of U.S. stocks. The above conclusion is still valid after adjusting the research range of U.S. stocks. From 1901 to 2014, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.58%, of which the part from Dividend's income reached 4.29%. Including the corporate repurchase part, the total dividend repurchase The rate of return reached 4.78%; From 1970 to 2014, the Dividend income generated by U.S. stocks was 3.03%. After taking corporate buybacks into account, this part of the income rose to 4.26%. During the same period, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad0938835357fb43662b8316e408bdd\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 After the repurchase, the stock price-to-book ratio will change significantly compared with the P/E</b></p><p>While share buybacks can boost stock prices, they do not necessarily affect valuations. To be more accurate, stock repurchases will not affect P/E, but will increase the price-to-book ratio. Therefore, after listed companies repurchase shares substantially, we will see significant changes in PB relative to PE.</p><p>The main reason for this difference is that the share repurchase will not affect the company's total market value and net profit, but will lead to a decrease in equity, which will cause the company's price-to-book ratio to increase significantly while the P/E remains unchanged. We assume that Company A has repurchased 20% of its shares at the market price. After the repurchase, the company's total equity will drop from 200 billion yuan to 160 billion yuan. Under the condition that the company's total market value remains unchanged, the price-to-book ratio will increase from the original 1 times to 1.25 times. Since the company's net profit has not been affected, P/E will continue to maintain the level of 4 times before the repurchase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b19d2fc9b3c26a462087305561545\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even from the perspective of the whole market, there is this relationship between P/E and price-to-book ratio. We have standardized the P/E and price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 Index. From the trend point of view, with the substantial increase in the repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index after 2010, the PB increase of the S&P 500 Index is significantly higher than that of PE. Larger, from the beginning of 2010 to April 25, 2022, the PE of the S&P 500 Index has increased from 19 times to 21.3 times, and the PB has increased from 2.0 times to 4.3 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d00d74505bd293d3aabeddec93c61174\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Under the stock repurchase, the company's stock price has increased significantly, but P/E has not been affected. Therefore, we see that the current P/E of the S&P 500 index is 21.3 times, which is 56.9% in the historical quantile since 1991. Far from overvalued. This is because the company's EPS has also increased accordingly, but in fact, for the company's value, the increase in EPS brought about by the reduction of equity capital has not created more value for the company, and to a greater extent, it is only a digital game. It is precisely for this reason that if we look at the price-to-book ratio, the current price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 index is 4.3 times, which has reached the historical quantile of 88.6% since the beginning of 1991.</p><p><b>4. Potential risks of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>4.1 Stock market repurchases may lead to a decline in market liquidity</b></p><p><b>The long-term bull market of U.S. stocks in the past ten years has been the second longest-lasting bull market in the history of U.S. stocks since World War II, but it is the only bull market that has emerged against the background of a significant decline in trading volume.</b>Since 2010, as the index price continues to rise, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index has declined year by year. At the end of March 2022, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index was only 17.4 billion, which has dropped to the level of the late 1990s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/061522652b140a8b126f90d429219659\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>An important reason for the price increase and volume decline of U.S. stocks is that a large number of share repurchases by listed companies have reduced the number of shares in circulation in the market, which will also lead to a decline in market liquidity. Take Apple as an example. Since 2013, the company has continuously increased the scale of stock repurchases, and the current number of outstanding shares in the market is 16.32 billion shares, a decrease of nearly 40% compared with the peak level at the end of 2012.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289a5dc4fdb8aaa08f16cc8f333300d2\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the sharp increase in the scale of passive investment is also an important reason for the sharp decline in U.S. stock trading volume, and U.S. stock repurchases can strengthen the positive feedback logic of passive investment in the bull market and further promote the increase in the scale of passive investment.</b>The repurchase of stocks by listed companies has brought about an increase in stock prices. Since passive investment has the advantages of low fee rates and better medium-and long-term performance in the bull market than active funds, investors have bought passive funds one after another, and the increased funds have flowed into index constituent stocks, superimposed on listed companies. The company continues to buy back stocks, further pushing the stock index up and increasing the scale of capital inflows into passive investment. This positive feedback model has continued in the U.S. stock market over the past decade, so we have seen that the asset size of ETFs in the U.S. stock market has increased significantly since 2009.</p><p><b>In the case of a sharp decline in liquidity, once the upward trend of the index is reversed, the positive feedback mechanism of passive investment will also be reversed immediately, which will contribute to the decline of the market. Such a large-scale gushing of funds can easily cause a stampede, and there is a high probability that it will bring very serious consequences.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04884a97efb5559e375ab06921927940\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.2 Repurchases prompt listed companies to use financial leverage to the extreme</b></p><p>Repurchase itself can be regarded as a kind of dividend policy of the company. The change in recent years is that the method of \"bond issuance and repurchase\" is favored by more and more companies, which makes listed companies use financial leverage to the extreme.</p><p>Many listed companies have repurchased a large number of shares, making their net assets negative and their asset-liability ratio rise to more than 100%, forming an insolvency situation in corporate financial management in the traditional sense. McDonald's, which was cited earlier when introducing the financial principles involved in repurchases, is an example. The company's asset-liability ratio was only 63% in 2014, and reached a maximum of 119% in 2018. In recent years, it still exceeds 100%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7204db63d2dfbd643ab86e4b40f7980\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Starbucks is another example. In 2017, the asset-liability ratio was only 62%, reached a maximum of 132% in 2019, and it will still be 117% in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93949197cb727b87db6cec84808a0901\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The debt leverage ratio of listed companies in the United States is ridiculously high, and financial leverage is used to the extreme. Take the S&P 500 constituent stocks in the table below as an example. The 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratios all have asset-liability ratios exceeding 90%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a3ce4721d3e0185ce386b5657c76cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"988\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Financial leverage and asset-liability ratio are important indicators to measure financial risks, and also important reference factors in corporate credit rating system. The increase of corporate financial leverage and asset-liability ratio will inevitably lead to the increase of financial risks, and will inevitably affect the credit rating of enterprises.</p><p>We have compiled statistics on the current credit ratings of the main companies constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index in the United States. The data shows that more than 80% of the corporate entities in the S&P 500 Index constituent stocks have investment grade credit ratings, and more than 10% of corporate investment entities have speculative credit ratings. In addition, it is worth noting that among the current investment-grade main companies, the credit rating of most companies is the lowest level of investment-grade, that is, Baa, which means that in the case of large fluctuations in the external economic environment, most companies may face the risk of lowering their credit rating from investment grade to speculative grade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c25dff19b1c181a4f5a0e5ed1182387\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e45b03dcf8e324c10f228abce824fe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the sample range of companies is narrowed to the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks, we can see that the proportion of companies with speculative credit ratings has increased significantly.</b>Under Moody's classification rating, among these 50 companies, the number of speculative-grade companies accounts for 23.3%, and under the S&P rating classification it is 36.2%, both of which are significantly higher than the proportion of corresponding classifications under all S&P 500 constituent stocks. Similarly, among investment-grade entity companies, Baa (Moody's's lowest investment-grade rating) or BBB (Standard & Poor's lowest investment-grade rating) accounts for an overwhelming proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba608d69d552164772f0c78db122613c\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1825ece9b330eff6989d428d65b10aeb\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The impact of large-scale bond repurchase on corporate credit rating is significant. In 2015, the Moody's credit rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds dropped by two consecutive levels, mainly because it planned to increase the issuance of Dividend and stock repurchases through bond issuance. In May 2015, Moody's downgraded the rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds from A2 to A3. Part of the reason for this downgrade is that McDonald's plans to accelerate the return of $8 billion to $9 billion to shareholders through dividend distribution and stock buybacks. Moody's believes that McDonald's guidance to accelerate stock buybacks and distribute high Dividend is a manifestation of its aggressive financial policy, which will lead to a sharp increase in debt levels. In November 2015, Moody's downgraded McDonald's corporate credit rating to Baa1 again as McDonald's announced that it would increase the amount returned to shareholders through bond issuance.</p><p>In addition, in 2015, Standard & Poor's downgraded McDonald's rating twice, and McDonald's long-term issuer credit rating dropped from A to A-and then to BBB +. In the same year, Fitch Ratings directly downgraded McDonald's long-term issuer default rating from A to BBB +, and again to BBB in 2016.</p><p>The same is true of Starbucks. In November 2017, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to A3. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks planned to return $15 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases from 2018 to 2020, and part of the returned funds would come from additional debt. Moody's believes that this will lead to a significant increase in debt levels and a substantial deterioration in credit indicators, so it downgraded Starbucks' corporate bond rating. In June 2018, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to Baa1 again. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks decided to significantly increase debt to increase the amount returned to shareholders to $25 billion. Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings also downgraded their corporate ratings after Starbucks decided to issue bonds to repurchase shares, and Starbucks' rating dropped from A to BBB +.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0625be465abe14191484b6704a99229\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the high debt leverage ratio itself is not a sufficient condition for the stock price to fall, but it does also lay the hidden danger of corporate debt default. Especially in the Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, the credit risk caused by high financial leverage is continuing to rise.</b></p><p><b>5. The experience of U.S. stock repurchase on A-shares</b></p><p>Compared with the U.S. stock market, the current scale of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies is still at an extremely low level. As of April 26, 2022, in fiscal year 2021, the total amount used by U.S. listed companies to repurchase common shares and preferred shares reached 7.37 trillion yuan, while the amount of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies during the same period was only 121.1 billion yuan, less than 2% of U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18608cdb64ca03bda791eb503fb57cdb\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, from the trend point of view, after the release of the new regulations on stock repurchase in 2018, the enthusiasm of A-share listed companies for repurchases has increased significantly, and the scale of repurchases has expanded significantly. In the whole year of 2012, only 11 A-share listed companies conducted share repurchases, with a total repurchase amount of 2.5 billion yuan; For the whole year of 2021, the number of listed companies conducting A-share stock repurchases has risen to 994, and the cumulative repurchase amount for the whole year has reached 121.1 billion yuan.</p><p>In the article \"Enlightenment from Previous A-share Repurchase Booms\", we review the performance of listed companies in previous A-share repurchase booms, and found that 1) undervalued companies had obvious excess returns after the release of the repurchase plan; 2) The proportion of the company's repurchase amount to the total market value is positively correlated with excess returns; 3) Company repurchases have a long-term supporting effect on stock prices.</p><p>Therefore, whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support the stock price to a certain extent or even push the stock price up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies. On the one hand, we believe that as A-share listed companies conduct more corporate repurchases in the future, there is still potential room for the company's stock price to rise. On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, there has been a new round of stock market repurchase boom in the market. As of April 15th, the amount of repurchases implemented by listed companies during the year was about 27.2 billion yuan, and the number of companies that have implemented repurchases during the year exceeded 400. More and more listed companies' repurchases also highlight their confidence in the future market to a certain extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4606ec8bf026e232ce9427bc25c625f\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(All individual stock information involved in this report is only a summary of public information, and does not constitute any profit forecast and investment rating)</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Fj9F_K7nZiupMDGYFkVz0Q\">追寻价值之路</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Fj9F_K7nZiupMDGYFkVz0Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116937204","content_text":"不论是从理论上来看,还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看,股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下,股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。核心结论股票回购最早起源于美国资本市场,经过多年发展后目前已经成为资本市场一种常用的手段,特别是最近十年里,美国上市公司回购规模大幅飙升。本文借鉴美股市场的经验,对股票回购的相关问题进行了讨论和梳理,主要内容分为五个部分:第一部分介绍了股票回购的基本概念,包括回购常见的四种方式以及股票回购的动因;第二部分讨论了股票回购的相关财务处理问题,涉及回购后是否选择注销股份的财务处理以及部分企业回购后为什么会出现净资产为负值的情况;第三部分梳理了股票回购有利于股价上涨的逻辑,一是直接增加公司股票的需求,二是通过提高上市公司EPS和整体的ROE等财务指标,此外,从美股的表现来看,股票回购是股价收益率的重要组成部分,回购对市净率的影响要比市盈率更加显著;第四部分探讨了股票回购的潜在风险,主要包括市场流动性下降以及回购导致的上市公司高财务杠杆风险;第五部分是A股目前的回购情况介绍以及美股回购对A股的经验借鉴。风险提示:回购增加财务杠杆风险、历史经验不代表未来、宏观经济不及预期、海外市场大幅波动报告正文1,股票回购的基本概念介绍1.1 什么是股票回购?股票回购指的是上市公司利用现金等方式,从股票市场上回购本公司发行在外一定数额的股票的行为,这将减少企业流通在外的股票数量,从而达到市值管理、股权激励、稳定股价等积极作用。企业回购股票的资金来源主要有两个:一是内部资金,包括企业日常经营获得的净利润或者政府减税、返税等现金来源,以及企业原有的留存收益等自有资金;二是外部资金,通过发债等方式借钱加杠杆实现股份回购。股票回购最早起源于美国资本市场,特别是在上世纪80年代之后得到了快速发展。此前由于西方欧美等国家提倡保持公司资本的理论,同时回购行为本身存在着市场操纵的嫌疑,很少有公司进行股票回购,直至20世纪80年代,股票回购才开始逐渐发展。在经过了超过40年的发展后,目前股票回购已经成为发达资本市场一种常用的手段,被广泛运用于优化资本结构、提升公司价值,或者是在公司股价被低估时传递积极信号。1.2 股票回购常见的四种方式根据回购价格确定方式的不同,股票回购一般可以分为公开市场操作、现金要约回购、协议回购和可转让出售权回购四种基本方式。公开市场回购是当前美国市场中较为流行的一种股票回购方式,通过公开市场回购股票的上市公司将直接在公开市场上按照当前市场价格进行股票回购。在该方式下的股票回购较为灵活,上市公司能够根据自身情况,自由决定回购的时间、回购的数量等因素,而且在这一方式下进行的股票回购不需要支付额外的溢价。另一种较为普遍的股票回购方式是要约回购。上市公司通过要约回购股票的定价方式一般有两种,一是使用固定价格在约定期限内向股东发出要约以购买一定数量的股票,上市公司一般是在短期内需要大量公司股票的情况下选择该种定价方式,但短期内需求的大幅升高会导致回购股票需要支付一定的溢价。要约回购下的另一种定价方式是荷兰式拍卖回购,此种方式将在回购价格方面给予公司更大的灵活性,因此也被广泛采用。在荷兰式拍卖回购中,上市公司制定回购价格的范围和计划回购的数量,随后股东表示在价格区间范围内某一水平下愿意出售的股票数量,最后上市公司将汇总所有股东意愿并按照从低到高价格排序进行股票回购,直至达到上市公司既定的回购数量。与公开市场回购和要约回购相比,协议回购的透明度较低。因为在协议回购方式下,上市公司直接与部分股东进行私下协议,按照协议商定的价格和数量进行股票回购。这种方式在定价、交易时间以及支付方式等方面均较为自由,而且通常来看协议价低于市场价。可转让出售权回购是一种特殊的股票回购的方式,实施股票回购的公司给予股东在一定期限内可以以特定价格向公司出售其股票的权利,而且该权利一旦形成,就可以同依附的股票分离并进行交易。上市公司向其股东发行可转让出授权,不愿意出售股票的股东可以单独出售该权利,以满足各类股东的不同诉求。1.3 为什么要进行股票回购?股份回购能够带来的好处是多方面的。从公司整体来看,不论是使用内部还是外部资金回购股份均可以改善企业的资本结构、并减少对公司管理层的监督及约束成本,使用发债回购股份的方式还能够利用负债的税盾效应实现合理避税,并促使管理层专注于企业的债务偿还以及长期可持续经营。而对于那些在股票回购计划中卖出股票的股东来说,他们可以卖出股票获得流动性,此外与直接派发现金股息相比,由于资本所得一般不征税或税率较低,通过股票回购派发股利的方式能够实现有效的避税。在企业实行回购计划后仍然持有股票的股东同样也能够受益。由于完成股票回购后企业的净资本将明显减少,在其他条件不变的情况下,企业的净资产收益率、每股盈利、以及每股净资产等财务指标都将出现显著的提升。对上市公司股票回购的动机进行分类的话,我们也可以归为以下四个类别,一是财务动因,二是信号传递诉求,三是减少委托代理风险,四是增加公司控制权防止恶意收购。上市公司进行股票回购的财务动因主要与其资本结构以及股利政策相关,上市公司往往出于提高每股盈利、改善资本结构以及增加股东财富效应等与财务相关的原因进行股票回购。具体来看,股票回购对上市公司财务相关因素的改善主要体现在四个方面:第一,提升公司每股盈利。由于回购会减少上市公司在外流通股数量,因此在计算每股盈利时由于分母的减少,将直接带来EPS的上升,这或许也将提高公司股价。第二,实现股利避税,增加上市公司的股东财富。由于现金股利的税率高于资本利得税税率,通过采用股票回购而不是发放股利的方式对股东现金返还能够帮助股东实现合理避税。在中国,个人投资者持股期限在一个月以内的股息红利所得全额计入应纳税所得额,实际税负为20%,但资本利得暂免征收所得税。第三,优化公司资本结构,通过税盾效应提高公司价值。不论以何种方式进行股票回购,都将降低公司的所有者权益,而发债回购甚至还会增加公司的债务,从而提高公司的财务杠杆率,产生杠杆效应。因此对于财务杠杆较低的公司来说,这不仅能够优化公司的资本结构,还能够利用融资利息带来的税盾效应实现公司价值的提升。第四,股票回购具有较高的财务灵活性。上市公司向股东返还现金的方式一般有发放现金股利和股票回购两种方式,但发放现金股利的方式通常会使股东对未来股利形成预期,这就要求公司需要有稳定的现金流。而股票回购是偶尔发生的,上市公司在股票回购方式下能够相对自由地选择回购的金额、数量、时间等,相比于股票回购方式具有很大的财务灵活性。股票回购的信号传递诉求主要是基于信息不对称假设,上市公司通过股票回购能够向市场传递公司股价被低估的信号,因为只有在公司认为自己股票价格被低估的情况下才会进行股票回购。通过这种方式向市场传递积极信号,对公司的短期经营收益具有正面的影响。股票回购还有助于减少委托代理风险。由于上市公司的管理权和所有权分离,而代理人和委托人目标并不完全一致,可能存在委托人无法清楚认识代理人的目标偏失,进而造成委托人利益受损的情况。特别是在公司自由现金流较为充裕的情况,公司管理层可能会出于自身利益而进行过度投资或消费,从而侵占公司股东的利益。这种情况下,公司通过股票回购将现金返还给股东,既提高了现金流的使用效率也能够降低代理成本,减少委托代理风险。通过股票回购增加控制权、防止股权稀释以及恶意收购也是上市公司股票回购的动机之一。上世纪80年代随着美国杠杆并购浪潮的兴起,恶意收购活动也逐渐增加。为了防止公司被恶意收购,上市公司纷纷通过回购股票来达到提高股价、减少在外流通股、抵御敌意收购的目的。虽然现在恶意收购的情况有所减少,但将回购的股票用于管理层的股权激励计划也有助于避免股权稀释。2,股票回购的财务处理问题2.1 股票回购后注销与否的区别对于上市公司来说,在股票回购完成后公司可以将所回购的股票注销,也可以将回购的股票作为“库存股”保留。被公司保留的“库存股”仍然属于已发行的股票,由公司自己持有,并且可以在适当的时间再向市场出售、发行可转债或者作为对员工的激励等。但“库存股”的特性类似于未发行的股票,“库存股”没有投票权,也不具备分红的权利,甚至在公司破产后也不能变现,因此,“库存股”也不参与每股收益、净资产收益率以及每股净资产等指标的计算。所以在股票回购完成后,不论有没有注销所回购的股票,都不会影响每股收益、每股净资产以及净资产收益率等财务指标,因为即使作为“库存股”保留,这些股票也不会参与这些指标的计算。从这个角度来看,对公司来说,注销和不注销所回购的股票并不会存在较大的差异。但在多数情况下,企业回购股票完成后都会选择将回购的股票作为“库存股”保留。我们统计了标普500成分股中资产负债率最高的50家公司股票回购后的处理情况,其中有30家上市公司选择了回购股票并保留了“库存股”,另外20家上市公司选择注销所回购的股票或未进行股票回购。企业之所以倾向于保留“库存股”,主要是因为“库存股”本身能够为企业带来一定的积极意义。一是在融资方面能够为公司提供充足的灵活性,降低融资成本。由于“库存股”仍然属于已发行的股票,公司在存在融资需求时可以出售“库存股”;与配股或者增发新股相比,出售“库存股”获得资金的成本更低,不仅能够节省发行股票相关的监管及中介成本费用,并且可以在市场允许的情况下避免折价发售。二是有利于员工或管理层激励计划等的实施。“库存股”是企业向员工及管理层发放股权激励的重要的股票来源之一,因此对于美股上市公司来说,保留“库存股”能够为其实施股权激励计划等提供便利,避免因缺乏足够的股份来源导致激励计划无法实施的情况。三是为公司并购活动提供便利、防止公司遭受敌意收购。通过库存股换股的方式进行兼并收购能够为公司的并购行为提供一定的灵活性;此外,回购后保留“库存股”行为也能防止公司被恶意收购,一方面回购推升股价导致收购方难度增加,另一方面,“库存股”能够补充公司在外流通的股份数量,为公司应对恶意收购提供缓冲时间。四是有利于股票价格的稳定。当市场出现了非理性的波动时,企业可以通过调节在外流通股票的供给来平抑价格的波动,稳定股价,避免公司因为市场情绪等非理性因素受到较大的影响。2.2 回购如何导致企业净资产为负?股票回购能够带来的好处中,非常重要的一条是,回购股票能够提高EPS和公司整体的ROE,这主要是因为回购股票会减少企业的净资本,分母的明显下降会带来包括EPS以及ROE在内的显著提升。在更为夸张的情况下,部分美股上市公司采取了发债回购的形式回购大量的已发行股份,造成负债总额大于资产总额、而净资产为负值的情况。在这种情况下,ROE、PB这些传统指标全部失效。那么美国的这些上市公司是如何通过回购使得净资产为负的呢?这背后最主要的原因还是在于财务报表中权益资产账面价值与二级市场中股票市值存在着巨大的差异,二级市场上的股票价格并不会在资产负债表里得到反映,所以股票的账面价值和市场价值是不对等的。企业在进行回购时,主要参考的是股票的市场价值,因此回购股票的成本往往会相对账面价值存在溢价。因此不论是回购后转入库存股、在计算股东权益时作为抵减项,又或是回购后注销时冲减留存收益科目,只要回购股票成本的溢价过大,就会可能导致留存收益科目转负,甚至导致公司整体的净资产也呈现出负值。以星巴克公司为例。星巴克公布的2019财年(从2018年9月30日至2019年9月30日)年度报告中,企业总资产从2018财年的241.6亿美元下降至192.2亿美元,但总负债却从2018财年的229.8亿美元上升至254.5亿美元,这意味着星巴克公司净资产即所有者权益从2018财年的11.8亿美元下降至2019财年的-62.3亿美元。从星巴克公司资产负债表中的股东权益细分科目的情况来看,2019年公司净资产小于0主要的原因是留存收益科目出现了大幅的下降,2018财年星巴克留存收益尚有接近15亿美元的余额,但到了2019财年末,留存收益大幅下降至-57.7亿美元,这直接导致了星巴克的股东权益大幅转负,此后公司的留存收益科目一直维持负值状态。而留存收益为负值的主要原因在于股票回购。以2019财年留存收益首次转负为例,在2019财年期内,星巴克公司进行了大量的股票回购,在外发行的股本数量由2018财年的13.1亿股下降至11.8亿股,总股本减少了10万美元,资本公积减少了6.1亿美元,企业回购股票的溢价部分则冲减了高达95.2亿美元的留存收益。从所有者权益变动情况来看,2019财年星巴克留存收益的增减主要是受到会计政策变更、净利润、股票回购以及现金分红的影响。如果不考虑股票回购的影响,会计政策变更及净利润分别使得留存收益增加4.96亿和35.99亿美元,即使是进行了18亿美元的现金分红,星巴克2019财年的留存收益仍然会较期初有所增加。但在股票回购的影响下,星巴克2019财年的留存收益不仅没有增加,反而大幅减少,甚至出现了大额负值,最终使得净资产小于0。对于回购股票后转入库存股的财务处理,我们可以参考麦当劳公司的案例。早在2016财年,麦当劳公司的净资产便已经小于0;此后,麦当劳仍在不断地发债回购流通股并转入库存股票,导致企业净资产持续下降。截至2019财年末(2019年12月31日),麦当劳公司总资产由上期末的328亿美元上升至475亿美元,同时总负债也由391亿美元大幅上升至557亿美元,因此,麦当劳公司的股东权益从2018年底的-63亿美元下降至了-82亿美元,降至了历史最低。2020及2021财年公司股东权益虽然有所回升,但仍然维持负值。从股东权益的细分项来看,2019年麦当劳公司股东权益持续下降的主要是因为库存股的成本在持续上升。影响股东权益的资本公积、留存收益以及其他综合收益科目2019财年的数值都较2018财年有所上升,股本科目维持不变,仅有备抵项库存股从2018财年的-615亿美元下降至-663亿美元(这意味着购买库存股的成本从615亿美元上升至663亿美元),并导致股东权益明显下降。2020及2021财年虽然库存股成本还在持续上升,但由于资本公积及留存收益科目都有显著增加,因此股东权益整体小幅回升。根据所有者权益变动表的情况来看,2019财年,麦当劳公司持续回购了2500万的股票,总的回购成本达到了49.8亿美元;同时使用了420万股库存股完成了股票行权认购计划,转出库存股金额1.8亿美元。因此,截至2019财年末,麦当劳公司回购库存股数量共计9.14亿股,累计回购库存股的总成本从615亿美元上升至663亿美元,并导致股东权益持续下降至-82亿美元。3,股票回购有利于推动股价上涨3.1 回购推动股票价格上涨的主要逻辑回购促进股票价格上涨的机制主要有两个,一是上市公司通过回购股票能够直接增加公司股票的需求来提高股价,这也是股票回购产生影响的一个最直接渠道。事实上,自2008年金融危机以来,上市公司本身便是美股市场中一个非常重要的参与者。根据美联储统计的数据,2009年至2021年期间,权益市场的主要参与者中,ETF基金累计净购买了2.77万亿美元的股票,美国家庭及非营利机构累计净购买了1.17万亿美元,而共同基金以及其他金融机构分别累计净出售了901亿美元和2.27万亿美元的权益资产。非金融企业因回购股票而交易的金额在过去十年里出现了大幅飙升,仅该部分累计交易的金额便达到了近5万亿美元的水平。我们可以假设公司A将回购20%的股份,并模拟其实施股票回购前后的股票价格表现来研究回购的影响。根据财务估值模型,公司市值取决于未来产生的现金流或者净利润等指标,因此股票回购的行为将不会影响公司的总市值。我们假设回购前公司A有200亿股流通股,每股价值10元,总市值为2000亿元;本次A公司将回购20%的股份,回购后还有160亿份股流通在外,由于总市值维持不变为2000亿元,因此每股股票价格将上升至12.5元,即与回购前相比,股价上升了25%。回购推动股价上涨的第二个机制是通过提高上市公司EPS和整体的ROE等财务指标。由于公司A的回购行为不会导致公司净利润出现变化,回购前后净利润均为500亿元,因此在回购后,A公司的EPS将由2.5元上升至3.125元,提升幅度为25%。从股市整体来看也是如此,历史数据显示,标普500指数EPS的走势与标普500指数回购规模的走势保持高度的一致性。从走势来看,2000年以来标普500指数EPS与回购规模的走势大致经历了三个阶段,2000年至2007年,指数EPS缓慢提升,公司回购的规模也在不断提升,指数回购减少的股本数量在持续上升。2008年金融危机时期,EPS出现了大幅下降,公司回购也出现了断崖式的下跌。随着美国经济逐渐恢复,2010年开始标普500指数EPS和回购金额都再次趋势上升,2020年新冠疫情期间两者同步出现了短暂的下降。ROE作为投研体系中重要的财务指标,在公司进行股票回购后也会出现明显提升。以苹果公司为例,其上市公司股票回购在2012年以前基本是没有的,2013年是个转折点,然后回购金额开始大幅飙升。如果单看净利润增速,苹果公司2012财年是417亿美元,2021财年是947亿美元,净利润的年化复合增速只有9.5%。这个增速放到A股市场,完全看不出是一个高科技公司,更像是一个公用事业公司。但通过大量的股票回购,苹果公司的ROE从2013年的30%左右提高到了2021年的150%。到2021财年,苹果公司回购普通股的金额高达860亿美元,几乎可以抵上当年的净利润。股票回购不仅会提升上市公司的ROE,在更为夸张的情况下,甚至会使得公司的ROE转为负值。在A股市场中我们也经常看到ROE为负的公司,这种情况都是上市公司是亏损的,所以净利润(分子)是负的。而美股市场中,有不少公司,是因为回购多了,把净资产(分母)弄成了负的了。这种情况下,ROE、PB这些传统指标全部失效。下面这个表报告了麦当劳公司从2007至2021财年股票回购与ROE变化情况,可以开看到,在2014年以前,公司的ROE大致在35%左右。然后开始了大量回购,2015年ROE到了63%,2016年以后公司的股本为负,使得ROE都是负的了。净资产为负,这在传统意义的教科书上,意味着企业资不抵债,是一个濒临破产的信号,但在当前的美股市场中,很多这类的公司股价却在持续上涨。3.2 股票回购将会推升股价收益率股票收益来自于股息红利和市值变动,市值变动又受到盈利和估值的影响,所以从长期投资的角度来看,股票收益率可以分解为股利回购收益、股票估值和企业盈利这三个部分的影响,其中,股利回购收益在股票总回报中占据着非常重要的地位,在美国的股票市场,股利回购收益甚至可以说是股票资产主要的收益来源。因此,股票回购会对股价收益率产生明显的影响,我们能看到全收益指数和普通指数的缺口会随着回购而增大。自1989年初至今超过30年的投资期内,即使经历了2000年互联网泡沫和2008年金融危机这两次重大的危机,投资美股仍然会带来十分丰厚的回报,而其中,股利收益占据了非常重要的地位,这一点体现在标普500全收益指数和标普500指数长期走势的差距中。标普500全收益指数在标普500指数的基础上进行了调整,将样本股分红计入了指数收益,调整后的标普500全收益指数累计涨幅是接近30倍,而标普500指数涨幅仅为14.2倍。Philip U. Straehl等人(The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal)对1871-2014年期间美国股市长期收益率进行了深入的研究,研究发现,包含公司派发的股息以及回购股票产生的收益在内,股利回购收益能够解释美国股票历史收益率的绝大部分,特别是在1970年股票回购得到快速发展之后,回购对提升股价收益率的影响更为显著。1871年至2014年期间,美股实际收益率(剔除通胀后)约为7%,其中,股息收益率为4.5%,如果考虑公司回购带来的收益,总的股利回购收益率将上升至4.89%,占美股实际收益率的三分之二以上。上述结论在调整美股的研究区间后仍然成立,1901年至2014年期间,美股实际收益率为6.58%,其中来自于股息收益的部分达到了4.29%,加上企业回购部分,总的股利回购收益率达到4.78%;1970年至2014年期间,美股产生的股息收益为3.03%,将企业回购纳入考虑后这一部分收益上升至4.26%,同期美股实际收益率为6.25%。3.3 回购后股票市净率将较市盈率出现显著变化虽然股票回购能够促进股票价格上涨,但并不一定会影响估值。更为准确的说法是,股票回购不会影响市盈率,但是会提高市净率,所以在上市公司大幅回购股票后,我们会看到PB相对于PE出现明显变化。之所以出现这种差异,主要是在于股份回购不会影响公司总市值以及净利润,但是会导致权益减少,这会使得公司在市盈率维持不变的情况下市净率出现明显的上升。我们假设公司A按照市价回购了20%的股份,回购后公司总权益将由2000亿元下降至1600亿元,在公司总市值维持不变的情况下,市净率将由原先的1倍上升至1.25倍,而由于公司净利润未受到影响,市盈率将继续维持在回购前4倍的水平。即使从整个市场角度来看,市盈率和市净率也存在这个关系。我们对标普500指数的市盈率与市净率进行了标准化,从走势来看,随着2010年后标普500指数回购金额的大幅提升,标普500指数的PB上升幅度要明显比PE更大,从2010年初到2022年4月 25日 ,标普500指数的PE大概从19倍上升到了21.3倍,PB从2.0倍上升到了4.3倍。在股票回购下,公司股价出现大幅提升,但市盈率却并未受到影响,所以我们看到目前标普500指数的市盈率为21.3倍,在1991年以来56.9%的历史分位数,远远谈不上高估。这是因为公司的EPS也出现了相应的提升,但事实上,对于公司价值来说,通过股本减少带来的EPS提升并没有为公司创造更多的价值,更大程度上只是数字上的游戏。也正是因为这个原因,如果我们从市净率来看,当前标普500指数市净率为4.3倍,已经达到1991年年初以来88.6%的历史分位点了。4,股票回购的潜在风险4.1 股市回购或将导致市场流动性下降美股过去的十年长牛是二战以来美股历史上持续时间第二长的大牛市,但是却是唯一一次在成交量明显下降背景下走出的牛市行情。从2010年开始,随着指数价格的持续上涨,标普500指数的成交量却逐年下降,2022年3月底标普500指数的成交量仅174亿,已经降至了上世纪90年代末的水平。导致美股出现价升量跌情况的一个重要原因是,上市公司大量回购股票使得市场上的流通股份数越来越少,这也会造成市场流动性的下降。以苹果公司为例,由于2013年以来公司不断加大回购股票的规模,当前市场上流通股数量为163.2亿股,相较于2012年底的峰值水平下降了近40%。当然,被动投资规模的大幅上升也是造成美股成交量大幅下降的重要原因,而美股回购能够强化牛市中被动投资的正反馈逻辑,进一步促进被动投资规模的提升。上市公司回购股票带来股价上升,由于被动投资具有低费率、牛市中长期业绩好于主动型基金等优势,投资者纷纷买入被动型基金,增加的资金流入指数成分股,叠加上市公司持续回购股票,进一步推动股指上涨,资金流入被动投资的规模加大。这一正向反馈模式在过去十年的美股市场中不断持续,所以我们看到,2009年后美股市场中ETF的资产规模出现了大幅提升。而在流动性大幅衰减的情况下,指数上涨的趋势一旦出现了扭转,被动投资的正反馈机制也将立即反转,对市场的下跌形成推波助澜之势。如此大规模资金的涌出很容易造成踩踏事件,大概率将带来非常严重的后果。4.2 回购促使上市公司将财务杠杆用到极致回购本身可以算是公司股利政策的一种,最近几年的变化在于,“发债回购”的方式受到越来越多公司的青睐,这使得上市公司把财务杠杆用到了极致。很多上市公司通过大量回购股份,使得净资产转负、资产负债率上升至100%以上,形成了传统意义上企业财务管理的资不抵债局面。在前面介绍回购涉及的财务原理时举的麦当劳公司是一个例子,公司资产负债率2014年时还只有63%,2018年最高到了119%,近几年仍然超过100%。星巴克公司是另一个例子,2017年时资产负债率还只有62%,2019年最高到了132%,2021年仍有117%。美国上市公司债务杠杆率高得离谱,财务杠杆都用到了极致。仅以下表的标普500成分股为例,资产负债率最高的50家公司,资产负债率都超过了90%。财务杠杆与资产负债率是衡量财务风险的重要指标,也是企业信用评级体系中重要的参考因素。企业财务杠杆与资产负债率的上升必然会带来财务风险的上升,也势必影响企业的信用评级。我们统计了当前美国标普500指数成分股主体公司目前的信用评级情况。数据显示,标普500指数成分股中约八成以上的公司主体信用评级为投资级,有超过10%的企业投资主体信用评级为投机级。此外,值得注意的是,当前投资级主体公司中,绝大部分企业的信用评级是投资级的最低等级,即Baa级,这意味着在外部经济环境出现大幅波动的情况下,大部分企业或许将面临信用评级从投资级降至投机级的风险。如果将公司样本范围缩小至标普500成分股中资产负债率最高的50家公司,可以看到公司信用评级为投机级的数量占比明显上升。穆迪分类评级下,这50家公司中,投机级企业数量占比为23.3%,标普评级分类下为36.2%,均要明显高于全部标普500成分股下的相应分类占比。而同样,在投资级主体公司中,Baa(穆迪投资级最低评级)或者BBB(标普投资级最低评级)占据了绝大的比例。大幅发债回购对企业信用评级的影响是显著的。2015年麦当劳的高级无担保债券穆迪信用评级连续下降两级,主要就是因为其计划通过发债加大发放股息以及股票回购的力度。2015年5月穆迪将麦当劳公司高级无担保债券评级从A2下调至A3,促成此次评级下调的部分原因在于麦当劳计划通过分发股利以及股票回购加速向股东返还80亿至90亿美元。穆迪认为,麦当劳加速股票回购以及高额派发股息的指引是其采取激进财务政策的体现,这将导致债务水平大幅上升。2015年11月,由于麦当劳公司宣布将通过发债提高向股东返还的金额,穆迪再次下调麦当劳企业信用评级至Baa1。此外,2015年标普公司两次下调麦当劳评级,麦当劳长期发行人信用评级从A级下降至A-再降至BBB+级,同年惠誉评级公司将麦当劳长期发行人违约评级从A级直接下调至BBB+级,并在2016年再次下调至BBB级别。星巴克公司的经历也同样如此。2017年11月,穆迪下调星巴克高级无担保债券评级至A3级,下调原因是因为星巴克计划在2018至2020年通过分红和股份回购的方式向股东返还150亿美元,返还的资金部分将来源于额外的债务。穆迪认为这将导致债务水平显著上升以及信用指标的实质性恶化,因此下调星巴克公司债券评级。2018年6月,穆迪再次下调星巴克高级无担保债券评级至Baa1级,下调原因在于星巴克决定大幅增加债务以将返还股东金额提高至250亿美元。标普与惠誉评级公司在星巴克公司决定发债回购股份后,同样下调企业评级,星巴克评级从A级下降至BBB+级。当然,债务杠杆率高本身并不是股价下跌的充分条件,但确实也埋下了企业债务违约的隐患,特别是在美联储加息周期中,高财务杠杆带来的信用风险正在持续上升。5,美股回购对A股的经验借鉴和美股市场相比,当前A股上市公司股票回购的规模仍然属于极低水平。截至2022年4月26日,2021财年,美股上市公司用于回购普通股和优先股的金额共计达到了7.37万亿人民币,而同期A股上市公司股票回购金额仅为1211亿元,不足美股的2%。不过从趋势上来看,2018年股票回购新规发布后,A股上市公司回购积极性明显提升,回购规模大幅扩张。2012年全年,A股仅有11家上市公司进行了股票回购,回购金额累计25亿元;2021年全年,A股进行股票回购的上市公司数量已经上升至了994家,全年累计回购金额达到了1211亿元。我们在《A股历次回购热潮的启示》一文中复盘了A股历次回购热潮中上市公司的表现,发现1)低估值公司在回购预案发布后超额收益明显;2)公司回购金额占总市值比例与超额收益正相关;3)公司回购对股价长期存在支撑作用。因此不论是从理论上来看,还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看,股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下,股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。一方面,我们认为,随着未来A股上市公司进行更多的企业回购,公司股价上涨还有潜在空间。另一方面,今年年初以来市场兴起了新一轮股市回购热潮,截至4月15日,上市公司年内已实施的回购金额约272亿元,年内已实施回购的公司数量逾400家,越来越多的上市公司回购一定程度上也凸显了对未来市场的信心。(本报告中所有涉及的个股信息,仅为公开信息汇总,不构成任何盈利预测和投资评级)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088764110,"gmtCreate":1650384532068,"gmtModify":1676534710930,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567665939928011","idStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088764110","repostId":"1111589482","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080707107,"gmtCreate":1649913021942,"gmtModify":1676534606111,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567665939928011","idStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080707107","repostId":"2225584750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2225584750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649855844,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225584750?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-13 21:17","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | Buffett's 40 sentences are highly recommended by Duan Yongping","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225584750","media":"正和岛","summary":"巴菲特说,不管一家公司是大盘、小盘、中盘、还是超小盘,我们只考虑这么几点:这家公司的生意我们能不能看懂?这家公司的管理层我们喜不喜欢?这家公司的价格是否便宜?1998年,巴菲特在佛罗里达大学商学院做了","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Buffett said that no matter whether a company is large-cap, small-cap, mid-cap, or ultra-small-cap, we only consider the following points: Can we understand the business of this company? Do we like the management of this company? Is this company cheap?</b>In 1998, Buffett gave a super connotative speech at the University of Florida Business School. This speech was later called the most classic speech in Buffett's life, without exception.<b>Duan Yongping strongly recommends the content of this speech, which is said to have been read 10 times.</b></p><p>Please be tricky when asking questions. The more difficult the questions you ask, the more fun it will be. \"</p><p>It is worth mentioning that during the nearly one-and-a-half-hour speech, Buffett himself did not make a long speech, but gave most of the time to the students at the scene, asking them to raise the issues they were most concerned about.</p><p>\"What kind of company do you like?\"</p><p>\"How much should I spend to buy a company?\"</p><p>\"Can you tell us something about your mistakes in business?\"</p><p>The sharp questions did not stump the \"stock god\". He not only answered the students' questions humorously, but also used the questions to deeply analyze his stock selection criteria, portfolio construction and way of thinking.</p><p><b>Huang Zheng said before, \"I found that what Buffett said is actually so simple that even my mother can understand it. Common sense is obvious and easy to understand, but we are blinded by the prejudice formed by growth and learning and the demands of personal interests.\"</b></p><p>As Huang Zheng said, Buffett is extremely good at telling everyone important investment philosophies with very easy-to-understand metaphors. This was the case twenty years ago. Vivid cases and visual expressions made this speech a classics. The classics among classics are still very enlightening when revisited today.</p><p>The original text of the speech is long,<b>We have compiled 40 highlights and compiled them into an article.</b>It involves investment philosophy, business judgment and hopes for young people. I believe it will inspire you after reading it.</p><p>01</p><p>Don't do anything outside the margin of safety</p><p>01. Suppose you hand me a gun with 1,000 magazines, 1 million magazines, and only one magazine has a bullet in it. You say, \"Point the gun at your temple and pull the trigger. How much do you want?\" I quit. I won't do it no matter how much money you give me.</p><p>If I win, I don't need the money; If I lose, the result will be needless to say. I don't want to do such a thing at all, but in the financial field, people often do such things without going through their brains.</p><p>02. Suppose you have US $100 million at the beginning of the year. If you don't use leverage, you can earn 10%. The success rate of leverage is 99%, and you can earn 20%. At the end of the year, you have US $110 million or US $120 million. Is there a difference? There's no difference.</p><p>If you die at the end of the year, the person who wrote the obituary may have made a clerical error. Although you have 120 million, he wrote 110 million.</p><p>What's the use of extra money? It's no use at all. It doesn't work for you, your family, or anyone else.</p><p>03. We basically never borrowed money. Of course, our insurance company has float funds, but I never borrowed money at all.</p><p>I don't borrow money when I only have 10,000 yuan. Is it different if I don't borrow money? I am also very happy to invest when I have less money.</p><p>I don't care if I have 10,000, 100,000, or 1 million. Unless there is an emergency, such as a serious illness and urgent need of money.</p><p>04. If you have 1 yuan now and think that when you have 2 yuan in the future, you can live happier than you are now, you may be wrong. Don't think that earning 10 or 20 times can solve all the problems in life. Such thoughts can easily lead you into the ditch.</p><p>Borrow money when you shouldn't, or be eager for quick success and instant benefit, opportunistic, and do things you shouldn't do, and there will be no place to buy regret medicine in the future.</p><p>02</p><p>A business that can be understood is a good business</p><p>05. American economist Henry Kaufman has such a famous saying:</p><p>\"There are two kinds of people who go bankrupt, one knows nothing, and the other knows everything.\"</p><p>I hope everyone can take it as a warning.</p><p>06. I like businesses that I can understand. I use this screen, and 90% of the companies are filtered out.</p><p>Some things can't be done when you know you don't understand them.</p><p>07. I don't like easy business. Business is easy and will attract competitors. I like business with a moat.</p><p>I hope to have a priceless castle, the duke guarding the castle with both ability and political integrity, and the castle is surrounded by a wide moat.</p><p>I've often been interested in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Widen the moat, said the manager of the subsidiary. Throw crocodiles, sharks into the moat and keep competitors out.</p><p>This depends on service, product quality, cost, and sometimes patents or business location. That's the kind of business I'm looking for.</p><p>Where can I find such a business? I look for good business from those simple products.</p><p>In fact, it's easy to understand that the current economic situation is good, and the management has both ability and political integrity. I can roughly see what will happen to such businesses in ten years. Some businesses, I don't see what will happen in ten years, so I won't buy them.</p><p>Like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>, lotus,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>These companies, I don't understand what their moats will be like in ten years.</p><p>Gates is the best business wizard I've ever met,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Also have a huge lead, but I really don't know what Microsoft will be in ten years, and I can't know exactly what Microsoft's competitors will be in ten years.</p><p>However, I know what the chewing gum business will be like in ten years. No matter how the Internet develops, it won't change our chewing gum habit. It seems that nothing can change our chewing gum habit. There will surely be more new varieties of gum coming, but will the white and yellow arrows disappear? No, no.</p><p>I imagine myself, if I have $1 billion, can I hurt this company? Give me 10 billion dollars and let me work globally and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Competition, I can hurt<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Is it? I can't do it. Such a business is a good business.</p><p>08. No matter what time, you must know what you are doing so that you can make a good investment. We must understand the business. We can understand some businesses, but not all businesses.</p><p>09. No matter whether a company is large-cap, small-cap, mid-cap or ultra-small-cap, we only consider the following points:</p><p>Can we understand the business of this company? Do we like the management of this company? Does this company have cheap prices?</p><p>03</p><p>Buying stocks is buying companies</p><p>Market declines are good opportunities</p><p>10. If the companies you invest in don't make money themselves, it will be difficult for you to make money.</p><p>11. After people buy stocks, they stare at the stock price early the next morning, looking at the stock price to determine whether their investment is doing well, and they are confused.</p><p>Buying stocks is buying companies, which is the most basic truth Graham taught me.</p><p>Remember, you're not buying shares, but a portion of the ownership of the company. As long as the company's business is good, and the price you buy is not ridiculously high, and your income is not bad, investing in stocks is as simple as that.</p><p>12. I prefer to see the market fall. When it falls sharply, it is easier to buy good goods and make good use of money. To invest in stocks, this is a truth you must first learn.</p><p>13. What you want to buy, you must have a reason. If you can't tell the reason, don't buy it.</p><p>14. Some people regard buying stocks as watching horse races, so it doesn't matter, but if you are investing, investment is to invest funds and make sure that you can recover the funds at a suitable rate of return in the future.</p><p>15. What we are thinking about is not how to get a super high rate of return, but always keep in mind that we will never lose money.</p><p>16. Most<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>Companies are those that you think are expensive in terms of numbers and are reluctant to buy, but you still want to buy them.</p><p>04</p><p>Hold the circle of competence</p><p>Recognize good business</p><p>17. If you can't understand a business at a glance, it takes another month or two, and you still can't understand it.</p><p>To understand a business, you must have enough background knowledge, and you must know what you know and what you don't know. This is the key. This is what I often mean when I say about the circle of competence. Be clear about your circle of competence.</p><p>18. Everyone has their own circle of competence. What matters is not how big the circle of competence is, but staying within the circle of competence.</p><p>If there are thousands of companies on the main board, your circle of competence only covers 30 of them, as long as you know which 30 companies it is, that's fine.</p><p>19. As long as it is a good business, nothing else matters. As long as it is a good business, I don't care about big or small things, and I don't think about this year and next year.</p><p>Good business, you can see how it will be in the future, but you don't know when it will be.</p><p>When you look at a business, you can concentrate on thinking about what will happen to it in the future. Don't worry too much about when. It doesn't matter much how the future of the business can be seen through, and when it is.</p><p>20. For my partner Charlie Munger and I, the biggest mistake we ever made was not doing something wrong, but not doing what we should have done.</p><p>In these mistakes, we know a lot about the business and should have acted, but we don't know what happened. We just hesitated and didn't do anything.</p><p>21. I don't study macro issues. The most important thing in investment is to find out what is important and knowable. If something is unimportant and unknowable, then leave it alone.</p><p>22. The routine of general consulting agencies is as follows. First, they pull out their economists and walk around twice, talk about some big macro patterns, and then analyze them from top to bottom. We think those are all nonsense.</p><p>23. When we decide whether to buy a company or not, we never use our feelings about macro issues as the basis. We don't look at forecasts about interest rates or corporate earnings, it's useless to look at them.</p><p>05</p><p>Be a friend of time</p><p>Make money by not tossing</p><p>24. Find a good investment opportunity a year, and then hold it all the time, waiting for its potential to be fully released.</p><p>In an environment where people call back and forth for quotes every five minutes, and in an environment where others keep stuffing all kinds of reports in front of you, it is difficult to hold still. Wall Street makes money by tossing, and you make money by not tossing.</p><p>25. If everyone here trades their portfolios with each other every day, everyone will eventually go bankrupt, and all the money will end up in the pockets of middlemen.</p><p>Another way, you all hold investment portfolios composed of ordinary companies, and you will remain motionless for 50 years. In the end, you will all be rich and your brokerage will go bankrupt. A doctor like this in a brokerage firm, the more times he asks you to change your medicine, the more he earns.</p><p>If he gives you a medicine and cures your disease, he can only make a deal, a deal, and then it's gone. If he can convince you that changing all kinds of medicines every day is good for your health, which is good for him and good for the medicine seller, you will lose a lot of money. Your health won't get better, and you will lose money.</p><p>26. Stay away from any environment that stimulates you to mess around.</p><p>27. No matter which company we buy, we don't set a price target when we buy it.</p><p>For example, we bought it at 30, and never thought it would go up to 40, 50, 60 or 100 and sell it. This has never been the case.</p><p>We hope that the company we buy is optimistic now and will be equally optimistic five years from now.</p><p>28. The correct way of thinking about a company is, in the long run, can the company make more and more money? If the answer is yes, there is no need to ask any other questions.</p><p>29. Time is the friend of good business and the enemy of bad business.</p><p>If you hold a bad business for a long time, even if you buy it cheaply, you will only get a bad profit in the end. If you hold a good business for a long time, even if you buy it more expensively, as long as you hold it for a long time, you will still achieve excellent returns.</p><p>06</p><p>A diversified business</p><p>Should not exceed 6</p><p>30. If you are not a professional investor and do not pursue the goal of achieving excess returns by managing funds, I think you should highly diversify your investments.</p><p>31. If you can really understand business, you should own no more than six businesses.</p><p>If you can find six good businesses, it's enough to spread out, no need to spread out any more, and you can make a lot of money.</p><p>I can guarantee that if you don't invest your money in the business you are most optimistic about, but do the seventh business, you will definitely fall into the ditch. Few people make their fortune on the seventh best idea, but many people make their fortune on the best idea.</p><p>32. If you ask me, if I invest all my funds in a company and don't move for twenty years, I will choose<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>Or Coca-Cola, actually<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>The product line is more diversified, but in comparison, I think Coca-Cola is more certain than Procter & Gamble.</p><p>Procter & Gamble can be selected into the top 5% of my most optimistic companies. Procter & Gamble will not be defeated by competitors, but in the next 20 or 30 years, between Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola, I am more optimistic about the sales growth potential and pricing power of Coca-Cola.</p><p>33. I still prefer a business where the product itself sells well.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>There have been more and more promotional activities in recent years, and it is increasingly relying on promotions rather than relying on the products themselves to sell well.</p><p>By contrast, I prefer Gillette. People buy the Speed 3 because they like the product itself, not to get some gifts.</p><p>Every night, think that one or two hundred million men's beards are growing, and when you sleep, men's beards are growing all the time, and you can sleep soundly. Think again, women all have two legs, which is even better. This method is much more effective than counting sheep. If you want to find it, look for such a business.</p><p>07</p><p>Some suggestions for young people</p><p>34. The shackles of habit are too light to detect at first, but later they are too heavy to get rid of.</p><p>35. If someone turns me off, but I can make 100 million dollars with him, I will flatly refuse. Otherwise, what's the difference between getting married for money?</p><p>No matter at any time, you can't get married for money, let alone if you are already rich.</p><p>36. I have a job that I love. I loved my job when I thought making $1,000 was a lot of money.</p><p>Students, do what you like. If you always do jobs that you don't like, just to make the work experience on your resume more beautiful, then you are really confused.</p><p>37. Whatever job you want to do after your financial freedom, you should do what job now. Such a job is the ideal job.</p><p>38. Doing a job you don't like, don't you feel a bit like saving your sex life when you are young and saving it until you are older?</p><p>Sooner or later, you should both start doing what you really want to do.</p><p>39. We never think about the past. We feel that there is so much to look forward to in the future, so why worry about the past.</p><p>If you don't dwell on the past, it's useless to dwell on it. Life can only look forward.</p><p>40. Do what you like and make friends with people you like all your life.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zhenghedao","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | Buffett's 40 sentences are highly recommended by Duan Yongping</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | Buffett's 40 sentences are highly recommended by Duan Yongping\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">正和岛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-13 21:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Buffett said that no matter whether a company is large-cap, small-cap, mid-cap, or ultra-small-cap, we only consider the following points: Can we understand the business of this company? Do we like the management of this company? Is this company cheap?</b>In 1998, Buffett gave a super connotative speech at the University of Florida Business School. This speech was later called the most classic speech in Buffett's life, without exception.<b>Duan Yongping strongly recommends the content of this speech, which is said to have been read 10 times.</b></p><p>Please be tricky when asking questions. The more difficult the questions you ask, the more fun it will be. \"</p><p>It is worth mentioning that during the nearly one-and-a-half-hour speech, Buffett himself did not make a long speech, but gave most of the time to the students at the scene, asking them to raise the issues they were most concerned about.</p><p>\"What kind of company do you like?\"</p><p>\"How much should I spend to buy a company?\"</p><p>\"Can you tell us something about your mistakes in business?\"</p><p>The sharp questions did not stump the \"stock god\". He not only answered the students' questions humorously, but also used the questions to deeply analyze his stock selection criteria, portfolio construction and way of thinking.</p><p><b>Huang Zheng said before, \"I found that what Buffett said is actually so simple that even my mother can understand it. Common sense is obvious and easy to understand, but we are blinded by the prejudice formed by growth and learning and the demands of personal interests.\"</b></p><p>As Huang Zheng said, Buffett is extremely good at telling everyone important investment philosophies with very easy-to-understand metaphors. This was the case twenty years ago. Vivid cases and visual expressions made this speech a classics. The classics among classics are still very enlightening when revisited today.</p><p>The original text of the speech is long,<b>We have compiled 40 highlights and compiled them into an article.</b>It involves investment philosophy, business judgment and hopes for young people. I believe it will inspire you after reading it.</p><p>01</p><p>Don't do anything outside the margin of safety</p><p>01. Suppose you hand me a gun with 1,000 magazines, 1 million magazines, and only one magazine has a bullet in it. You say, \"Point the gun at your temple and pull the trigger. How much do you want?\" I quit. I won't do it no matter how much money you give me.</p><p>If I win, I don't need the money; If I lose, the result will be needless to say. I don't want to do such a thing at all, but in the financial field, people often do such things without going through their brains.</p><p>02. Suppose you have US $100 million at the beginning of the year. If you don't use leverage, you can earn 10%. The success rate of leverage is 99%, and you can earn 20%. At the end of the year, you have US $110 million or US $120 million. Is there a difference? There's no difference.</p><p>If you die at the end of the year, the person who wrote the obituary may have made a clerical error. Although you have 120 million, he wrote 110 million.</p><p>What's the use of extra money? It's no use at all. It doesn't work for you, your family, or anyone else.</p><p>03. We basically never borrowed money. Of course, our insurance company has float funds, but I never borrowed money at all.</p><p>I don't borrow money when I only have 10,000 yuan. Is it different if I don't borrow money? I am also very happy to invest when I have less money.</p><p>I don't care if I have 10,000, 100,000, or 1 million. Unless there is an emergency, such as a serious illness and urgent need of money.</p><p>04. If you have 1 yuan now and think that when you have 2 yuan in the future, you can live happier than you are now, you may be wrong. Don't think that earning 10 or 20 times can solve all the problems in life. Such thoughts can easily lead you into the ditch.</p><p>Borrow money when you shouldn't, or be eager for quick success and instant benefit, opportunistic, and do things you shouldn't do, and there will be no place to buy regret medicine in the future.</p><p>02</p><p>A business that can be understood is a good business</p><p>05. American economist Henry Kaufman has such a famous saying:</p><p>\"There are two kinds of people who go bankrupt, one knows nothing, and the other knows everything.\"</p><p>I hope everyone can take it as a warning.</p><p>06. I like businesses that I can understand. I use this screen, and 90% of the companies are filtered out.</p><p>Some things can't be done when you know you don't understand them.</p><p>07. I don't like easy business. Business is easy and will attract competitors. I like business with a moat.</p><p>I hope to have a priceless castle, the duke guarding the castle with both ability and political integrity, and the castle is surrounded by a wide moat.</p><p>I've often been interested in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Widen the moat, said the manager of the subsidiary. Throw crocodiles, sharks into the moat and keep competitors out.</p><p>This depends on service, product quality, cost, and sometimes patents or business location. That's the kind of business I'm looking for.</p><p>Where can I find such a business? I look for good business from those simple products.</p><p>In fact, it's easy to understand that the current economic situation is good, and the management has both ability and political integrity. I can roughly see what will happen to such businesses in ten years. Some businesses, I don't see what will happen in ten years, so I won't buy them.</p><p>Like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>, lotus,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>These companies, I don't understand what their moats will be like in ten years.</p><p>Gates is the best business wizard I've ever met,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Also have a huge lead, but I really don't know what Microsoft will be in ten years, and I can't know exactly what Microsoft's competitors will be in ten years.</p><p>However, I know what the chewing gum business will be like in ten years. No matter how the Internet develops, it won't change our chewing gum habit. It seems that nothing can change our chewing gum habit. There will surely be more new varieties of gum coming, but will the white and yellow arrows disappear? No, no.</p><p>I imagine myself, if I have $1 billion, can I hurt this company? Give me 10 billion dollars and let me work globally and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Competition, I can hurt<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Is it? I can't do it. Such a business is a good business.</p><p>08. No matter what time, you must know what you are doing so that you can make a good investment. We must understand the business. We can understand some businesses, but not all businesses.</p><p>09. No matter whether a company is large-cap, small-cap, mid-cap or ultra-small-cap, we only consider the following points:</p><p>Can we understand the business of this company? Do we like the management of this company? Does this company have cheap prices?</p><p>03</p><p>Buying stocks is buying companies</p><p>Market declines are good opportunities</p><p>10. If the companies you invest in don't make money themselves, it will be difficult for you to make money.</p><p>11. After people buy stocks, they stare at the stock price early the next morning, looking at the stock price to determine whether their investment is doing well, and they are confused.</p><p>Buying stocks is buying companies, which is the most basic truth Graham taught me.</p><p>Remember, you're not buying shares, but a portion of the ownership of the company. As long as the company's business is good, and the price you buy is not ridiculously high, and your income is not bad, investing in stocks is as simple as that.</p><p>12. I prefer to see the market fall. When it falls sharply, it is easier to buy good goods and make good use of money. To invest in stocks, this is a truth you must first learn.</p><p>13. What you want to buy, you must have a reason. If you can't tell the reason, don't buy it.</p><p>14. Some people regard buying stocks as watching horse races, so it doesn't matter, but if you are investing, investment is to invest funds and make sure that you can recover the funds at a suitable rate of return in the future.</p><p>15. What we are thinking about is not how to get a super high rate of return, but always keep in mind that we will never lose money.</p><p>16. Most<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>Companies are those that you think are expensive in terms of numbers and are reluctant to buy, but you still want to buy them.</p><p>04</p><p>Hold the circle of competence</p><p>Recognize good business</p><p>17. If you can't understand a business at a glance, it takes another month or two, and you still can't understand it.</p><p>To understand a business, you must have enough background knowledge, and you must know what you know and what you don't know. This is the key. This is what I often mean when I say about the circle of competence. Be clear about your circle of competence.</p><p>18. Everyone has their own circle of competence. What matters is not how big the circle of competence is, but staying within the circle of competence.</p><p>If there are thousands of companies on the main board, your circle of competence only covers 30 of them, as long as you know which 30 companies it is, that's fine.</p><p>19. As long as it is a good business, nothing else matters. As long as it is a good business, I don't care about big or small things, and I don't think about this year and next year.</p><p>Good business, you can see how it will be in the future, but you don't know when it will be.</p><p>When you look at a business, you can concentrate on thinking about what will happen to it in the future. Don't worry too much about when. It doesn't matter much how the future of the business can be seen through, and when it is.</p><p>20. For my partner Charlie Munger and I, the biggest mistake we ever made was not doing something wrong, but not doing what we should have done.</p><p>In these mistakes, we know a lot about the business and should have acted, but we don't know what happened. We just hesitated and didn't do anything.</p><p>21. I don't study macro issues. The most important thing in investment is to find out what is important and knowable. If something is unimportant and unknowable, then leave it alone.</p><p>22. The routine of general consulting agencies is as follows. First, they pull out their economists and walk around twice, talk about some big macro patterns, and then analyze them from top to bottom. We think those are all nonsense.</p><p>23. When we decide whether to buy a company or not, we never use our feelings about macro issues as the basis. We don't look at forecasts about interest rates or corporate earnings, it's useless to look at them.</p><p>05</p><p>Be a friend of time</p><p>Make money by not tossing</p><p>24. Find a good investment opportunity a year, and then hold it all the time, waiting for its potential to be fully released.</p><p>In an environment where people call back and forth for quotes every five minutes, and in an environment where others keep stuffing all kinds of reports in front of you, it is difficult to hold still. Wall Street makes money by tossing, and you make money by not tossing.</p><p>25. If everyone here trades their portfolios with each other every day, everyone will eventually go bankrupt, and all the money will end up in the pockets of middlemen.</p><p>Another way, you all hold investment portfolios composed of ordinary companies, and you will remain motionless for 50 years. In the end, you will all be rich and your brokerage will go bankrupt. A doctor like this in a brokerage firm, the more times he asks you to change your medicine, the more he earns.</p><p>If he gives you a medicine and cures your disease, he can only make a deal, a deal, and then it's gone. If he can convince you that changing all kinds of medicines every day is good for your health, which is good for him and good for the medicine seller, you will lose a lot of money. Your health won't get better, and you will lose money.</p><p>26. Stay away from any environment that stimulates you to mess around.</p><p>27. No matter which company we buy, we don't set a price target when we buy it.</p><p>For example, we bought it at 30, and never thought it would go up to 40, 50, 60 or 100 and sell it. This has never been the case.</p><p>We hope that the company we buy is optimistic now and will be equally optimistic five years from now.</p><p>28. The correct way of thinking about a company is, in the long run, can the company make more and more money? If the answer is yes, there is no need to ask any other questions.</p><p>29. Time is the friend of good business and the enemy of bad business.</p><p>If you hold a bad business for a long time, even if you buy it cheaply, you will only get a bad profit in the end. If you hold a good business for a long time, even if you buy it more expensively, as long as you hold it for a long time, you will still achieve excellent returns.</p><p>06</p><p>A diversified business</p><p>Should not exceed 6</p><p>30. If you are not a professional investor and do not pursue the goal of achieving excess returns by managing funds, I think you should highly diversify your investments.</p><p>31. If you can really understand business, you should own no more than six businesses.</p><p>If you can find six good businesses, it's enough to spread out, no need to spread out any more, and you can make a lot of money.</p><p>I can guarantee that if you don't invest your money in the business you are most optimistic about, but do the seventh business, you will definitely fall into the ditch. Few people make their fortune on the seventh best idea, but many people make their fortune on the best idea.</p><p>32. If you ask me, if I invest all my funds in a company and don't move for twenty years, I will choose<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>Or Coca-Cola, actually<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>The product line is more diversified, but in comparison, I think Coca-Cola is more certain than Procter & Gamble.</p><p>Procter & Gamble can be selected into the top 5% of my most optimistic companies. Procter & Gamble will not be defeated by competitors, but in the next 20 or 30 years, between Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola, I am more optimistic about the sales growth potential and pricing power of Coca-Cola.</p><p>33. I still prefer a business where the product itself sells well.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>There have been more and more promotional activities in recent years, and it is increasingly relying on promotions rather than relying on the products themselves to sell well.</p><p>By contrast, I prefer Gillette. People buy the Speed 3 because they like the product itself, not to get some gifts.</p><p>Every night, think that one or two hundred million men's beards are growing, and when you sleep, men's beards are growing all the time, and you can sleep soundly. Think again, women all have two legs, which is even better. This method is much more effective than counting sheep. If you want to find it, look for such a business.</p><p>07</p><p>Some suggestions for young people</p><p>34. The shackles of habit are too light to detect at first, but later they are too heavy to get rid of.</p><p>35. If someone turns me off, but I can make 100 million dollars with him, I will flatly refuse. Otherwise, what's the difference between getting married for money?</p><p>No matter at any time, you can't get married for money, let alone if you are already rich.</p><p>36. I have a job that I love. I loved my job when I thought making $1,000 was a lot of money.</p><p>Students, do what you like. If you always do jobs that you don't like, just to make the work experience on your resume more beautiful, then you are really confused.</p><p>37. Whatever job you want to do after your financial freedom, you should do what job now. Such a job is the ideal job.</p><p>38. Doing a job you don't like, don't you feel a bit like saving your sex life when you are young and saving it until you are older?</p><p>Sooner or later, you should both start doing what you really want to do.</p><p>39. We never think about the past. We feel that there is so much to look forward to in the future, so why worry about the past.</p><p>If you don't dwell on the past, it's useless to dwell on it. Life can only look forward.</p><p>40. Do what you like and make friends with people you like all your life.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_If2Jbd9zIFKl-lKJJqdaA\">正和岛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8356647b06585ac937a0f45e6aeb17","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_If2Jbd9zIFKl-lKJJqdaA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2225584750","content_text":"巴菲特说,不管一家公司是大盘、小盘、中盘、还是超小盘,我们只考虑这么几点:这家公司的生意我们能不能看懂?这家公司的管理层我们喜不喜欢?这家公司的价格是否便宜?1998年,巴菲特在佛罗里达大学商学院做了一场超有内涵的演讲,这次演讲后来被称为是巴菲特一生中最经典的演讲,没有之一。段永平强烈推荐这次的演讲内容,据说已经看了10遍。请各位提问时一定要刁钻,你们问的问题越难,才越好玩。”值得一提的是,近一个半小时的演讲中,巴菲特本人并没有长篇大论,而是把大部分时间交给了现场的同学,让他们提出自己最为关心的问题。“您喜欢什么样的公司?”“到底该花多少钱买一家公司?”“能否讲讲您在商业中犯的错误?”一个个犀利的问题并没有难倒这位“股神”,他既幽默风趣的回答了学生们的提问,又借着问题深入剖析了自己的选股标准、组合构建和思维方式。黄峥此前说过,“我发现巴菲特讲的东西其实特别简单,连我母亲都能听懂。常识显而易见、容易理解,但我们因为成长、学习形成的偏见和个人利益的诉求蒙蔽了我们。”如黄峥所言,巴菲特极其擅长把重要的投资哲理用非常通俗易懂的比喻来告诉大家,二十年前便是如此,一个个生动的案例加上形象化的表达,让这场演讲成为经典中的经典,今天重温下来,依然极具启迪意义。演讲原文较长,我们从中整理了40条精华内容摘编成文,涉及投资理念、生意判断以及对年轻人的希冀,相信读后一定会对你有所启发。01别做安全边际以外的事01. 假设你递给我一把枪,里面有1000个弹仓、100万个弹仓,其中只有一个弹仓里有一颗子弹,你说:“把枪对准你的太阳穴,扣一下扳机,你要多少钱?”我不干。你给我多少钱,我都不干。要是我赢了,我不需要那些钱;要是我输了,结果不用说了。这样的事,我一点都不想做,但是在金融领域,人们经常做这样的事,都不经过大脑。02. 假设年初你有1亿美元,如果不上杠杆,能赚10%,上杠杆的成功率是99%,能赚20%,年末时你有1.1亿美元,还是1.2亿美元,有区别吗?没一点区别。要是年末你死了,写讣告的人可能有个笔误,虽然你有1.2亿,但他写成了1.1亿。多赚的钱有什么用?一点用没有。对你、对你的家人,对别人,都没用。03. 我们基本上没借过钱,当然我们的保险公司里有浮存金,但是我压根没借过钱。我只有1万块钱的时候都不借钱,不借钱不一样吗?我钱少的时候做投资也很开心。我根本不在乎我到底是有1万、10万,还是100万。除非遇上了急事,比如生了大病急需用钱。04. 如果你现在有1块钱,以为将来有2块钱的时候,自己能比现在过得更幸福,你可能想错了,别以为赚10倍或20倍能解决生活中的所有问题,这样的想法很容易把你带到沟里去。在不该借钱的时候借钱,或者急功近利、投机取巧,做自己不该做的事,将来都没地方买后悔药。02能看懂的生意才是好生意05. 美国经济学家亨利·考夫曼有这么一句名言:“破产的有两种人,一种是什么都不知道的,一种是什么都知道的。”希望大家能引以为戒。06. 我喜欢我能看懂的生意,我用这一条筛选,90%的公司都被过滤掉了。有些东西明知道自己不懂,就不能做。07. 我不喜欢很容易的生意,生意很容易,会招来竞争对手,我喜欢有护城河的生意。我希望拥有一座价值连城的城堡,守护城堡的公爵德才兼备,而且这座城堡周围有宽广的护城河。我经常对伯克希尔子公司的管理者说,加宽护城河。往护城河里扔鳄鱼、鲨鱼,把竞争对手挡在外面。这要靠服务、靠产品质量、靠成本,有时候要靠专利或营业地点。我要找的就是这样的生意。在哪能找到这样的生意呢?我从那些简单的产品里寻找好生意。其实很容易理解,当前的经济状况良好,管理层德才兼备,这样的生意,我能大概看出来它们十年后会怎样。有的生意,我看不出来十年后会怎样,我不买。像甲骨文、莲花、微软这些公司,我就搞不懂它们的护城河十年之后会怎样。盖茨是我遇到过的最优秀的商业奇才,微软也拥有巨大的领先优势,但我真不知道微软十年后会怎样,也无法确切地知道微软的竞争对手十年后会怎样。不过,我知道口香糖生意十年后会怎样,互联网再怎么发展,都不会改变我们嚼口香糖的习惯,好像没什么能改变我们嚼口香糖的习惯。肯定会有更多新品种的口香糖出现,但白箭和黄箭会消失吗?不会。我自己设想,要是我有10亿美元,能伤着这家公司吗?给我100亿美元,让我在全球和可口可乐竞争,我能伤着可口可乐吗?我做不到。这样的生意是好生意。08. 无论什么时候,都要知道自己在做什么,这样才能做好投资。必须把生意看懂了,有的生意是我们能看懂的,但不是所有生意我们都能看懂。09. 我们不管一家公司是大盘、小盘、中盘、还是超小盘,我们只考虑这么几点:这家公司的生意我们能不能看懂?这家公司的管理层我们喜不喜欢?这家公司的价格是否便宜?03买股票就是买公司市场下跌是好机会10. 如果你投资的公司本身都不赚钱,你也很难赚钱。11. 人们买完股票后,第二天一早就盯着股价,看股价决定自己的投资做得好不好,糊涂到家了。买股票就是买公司,这是格雷厄姆教给我的最基本的道理。记住,你买的不是股票,而是公司的一部分所有权。只要公司生意好,而且你买的价格不是高得离谱,你的收益也差不了,投资股票就这么简单。12. 我更愿意看到市场下跌,大跌的时候更容易买到好货,更容易把钱用好,要投资股票,这是你必须首先学会的一个道理。13. 自己要买什么,一定要有个理由,说不出来理由的,别买。14. 有的人把买股票当成看赛马,那无所谓了,但如果你是在投资的话,投资是把资金投进去,确定将来能以合适的收益率收回资金。15. 我们想的不是怎么获得超高的回报率,而是始终牢记永远不亏钱。16. 最值得买的公司,是那些你觉得从数字上看很贵,舍不得买,但还是很想买的公司。04守住能力圈认定好生意17. 一门生意,要是你不能一眼看懂,再花一两个月的时间,你还是看不懂。要看懂一门生意,必须有足够的背景知识才行,而且要清楚自己知道什么,不知道什么,这是关键。我常说的能力圈就是这个意思,要清楚自己的能力圈。18. 每个人都有自己的能力圈,重要的不是能力圈有多大,而是待在能力圈的范围之内。如果主板中有几千家公司,你的能力圈只涵盖其中的 30 家,只要你清楚是哪30家,就可以了。19. 只要是好生意,别的什么东西都不重要。只要是好生意,我就不管那些大事小事,也不考虑今年明年如何之类的问题。好生意,你能看出来它将来会怎样,但是不知道会是什么时候。看一个生意,你就一门心思琢磨它将来会怎么样,别太纠结什么时候。把生意的将来能怎么样看透了,到底是什么时候,就没多大关系了。20. 对于我和我的合伙人查理·芒格来说,我们犯过的最大的错误不是做错了什么,而是该做的没做。在这些错误中,我们对生意很了解,本来应该行动,但不知道怎么了,我们就在那犹豫来犹豫去,什么都没做。21. 我不研究宏观问题,投资中最紧要的是弄清什么事是重要的、可知的。如果一件事是不重要的、不可知的,那就别管了。22. 一般的咨询机构的套路是这样的,先把他们的经济学家拉出来溜两圈,讲一些大的宏观格局,然后自上而下地分析,我们觉得那些都是胡扯。23. 我们在决定买不买一家公司时,从来不把我们对宏观问题的感觉作为依据。我们不看关于利率或公司盈利的预测,看了没用。05做时间的朋友靠不折腾赚钱24. 一年找到一个好的投资机会,然后一直持有,等待它的潜力充分释放出来。在一个人们每五分钟就来回喊报价的环境里,在一个别人总把各种报告塞到你面前的环境里,很难做到持有不动。华尔街靠折腾赚钱,你靠不折腾赚钱。25. 要是在座的各位每天都相互交易自己的投资组合,所有人最后都会破产,所有的钱最后都会进到中间商的口袋里。换个做法,你们都持有一般公司组成的投资组合,50年里你们都一动不动,最后你们都会很有钱,你们的券商会破产。券商像这样一个医生,他让你换药的次数越多,他赚的越多。他要是给你一种药,把你的病根治了,他只能做成一笔买卖,一笔交易,然后就没了。如果他能让你相信每天换各种药吃对健康有益,这对他有好处,对卖药的有好处,你会亏很多钱。你的身体好不了,还会破财。26. 任何刺激你瞎折腾的环境,都要远离。27. 不管买哪家公司,我们买的时候都不设定价格目标。例如,我们是30买的,从没想过涨到40、50、60或100就卖了,从来没这样过。我们希望自己买入的公司,现在看好,五年后一样看好。28. 看一家公司正确的思维方式是,长期来看,这家公司是否能越来越赚钱?如果答案是能,别的问题都用不着问了。29. 时间是好生意的朋友,烂生意的敌人。如果长期持有一个烂生意,就算买得再便宜,最后也只能取得很烂的收益。如果长期持有好生意,就算买得贵了一些,只要长期持有,还是会取得出色的收益。06分散投资的生意不应超过6个30. 如果不是职业投资者,不追求通过管理资金实现超额收益率的目标,我觉得应该高度分散投资。31. 要是你真能看懂生意,你拥有的生意不应该超过六个。要是你能找到六个好生意,就已经足够分散了,用不着再分散了,而且你能赚很多钱。我敢保证,你不把钱投到你最看好的那个生意,而是再去做第七个生意,肯定会掉到沟里。靠第七个最好的主意发家的人很少,靠最好的主意发家的人很多。32. 要是你问我,我要是把我的所有资金都投入到一家公司,二十年不动,我会选宝洁还是可口可乐,其实宝洁的产品线更多元化,但是比较起来,我认为可口可乐的确定性比宝洁的确定性高。宝洁可以入选我最看好的公司中的前5%,宝洁不会被竞争对手打垮,但是从将来二三十年看,在宝洁和可可口乐之间,我更看好可口可乐的销量增长潜力和定价权。33. 我还是更喜欢产品本身卖得好的生意。麦当劳这几年的促销活动越来越多,它越来越依赖促销,而不是靠产品本身卖得好。相比之下,我更喜欢吉列,人们买锋速3是因为他们喜欢锋速3这个产品本身,不是为了得到什么赠品才买的。每天晚上,想想一两亿男人的胡子都在长,你睡觉的时候,男人们的胡子一直在长,你就能睡得很踏实。再想想,女人们都有两条腿,这更好了。这个方法比数绵羊管用多了,要找就找这样的生意。07给年轻人的几点建议34. 习惯的枷锁,开始的时候轻的难以察觉,到后来却重的无法摆脱。35. 要是有个人让我倒胃口,但是和他走到一起,我能赚1亿美元,我会断然拒绝,要不和为了钱结婚有什么两样?无论什么时候,都不能为了钱结婚,要是已经很有钱了,更不能这样。36. 我有一份我热爱的工作,当年我觉得赚1,000美元是一大笔钱的时候,我就喜欢我的工作。同学们,做你们喜欢的工作,要是你总做那些自己不喜欢的工作,只是为了让简历上的工作经历更漂亮,那你真是糊涂了。37. 你财富自由之后想做什么工作,现在就该做什么工作,这样的工作才是理想的工作。38. 做自己不喜欢的工作,不觉得有点像年轻的时候把性生活省下来,留到岁数大的时候再用吗?或早或晚,你们都应该开始做自己真心想做的事。39. 我们从来不想已经过去的事,我们觉得未来有那么多值得期待的,何必对过去耿耿于怀。不纠结过去的事,纠结也没用,人生只能向前看。40. 一辈子都做自己喜欢的事,交自己喜欢的人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":1,"BRK.B":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034258376,"gmtCreate":1647909224774,"gmtModify":1676534278141,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567665939928011","idStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034258376","repostId":"1129199259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129199259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647874342,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129199259?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-21 22:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | Munger: Do these things well, and the road to wealth and freedom is simple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129199259","media":"期乐会","summary":"芒格认为,每个人想参与投资游戏的人都必须了解自己的天性,都必须在考虑自己的边际效用和心理承受能力后才能开始投资。几十年以来,在股神巴菲特的光环背后默默站着一个人,他就是查理·芒格。他们年轻时相识,彼此","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Munger believes that everyone who wants to participate in the investment game must understand their own nature and must consider their marginal utility and psychological endurance before they can start investing. For decades, there has been a man standing silently behind the aura of stock god Buffett, and he is Charlie Munger. They met when they were young, appreciated each other, and their values were highly consistent. Buffett said without words: Without Munger, I would be much poorer than I am now. I am beyond words of gratitude to him. They are life partners with equal wisdom and co-creators of the investment miracle with a compound annual growth rate of 19.2% in 51 years. The difference is that Munger is too low-key. Every spring, thousands of people travel to Omaha, Nebraska, to attend Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting. They are going to see Buffett, but they are also very interested in the man sitting beside Buffett on the stage and helping the Omaha wise man answer questions from time to time.</p><p>The performance usually goes like this:</p><p>Buffett answers the question first, and the length of time is up to him. When he arrived, he would turn to Munger and ask: Is there anything else you want to add? Munger sat there motionless, and answered simply and crudely: Nothing to add. Occasionally, based on his rich experience and experience, Munger will also put forward some opinions, and then say a short paragraph. Once Munger speaks, the audience listens to his opinion with full attention. On the way to pursue the wisdom of life, he didn't care whether he stood in the spotlight. Even, he hopes that his wealth will remain just below the level of Forbes' rich list, so that he can avoid the spotlight and public attention. Buffett's eldest son once said: My dad is the second smartest person I know, and Charlie Munger is the first.</p><p>Munger is an outstanding investment thinker, but he was not born like this. In his only authorized biography, \"Buffett's Behind-the-Scenes Think Tank: The Biography of Charlie Munger\", he showed the details of his thinking and the key to becoming an investment big coffee.</p><p>1. Self-improvement is the most important</p><p>Munger said, \"To win first place, you have to get ahead and never stand still. I always get into a business better than everyone else. Why? The answer is to learn yourself. That's a really good idea that works.\"</p><p><b>What Munger said about self-study is never-ending self-improvement.</b>On this road of self-improvement, he values three points most:</p><p><b>First, think for yourself.</b></p><p>He said that if you completely rely on others in the process of thinking and always listen to other people's so-called \"professional opinions\", once you leave your own small world, you will be in disaster.</p><p>Graham is Buffett's teacher, the originator of value investing, and the main source of Buffett's early investment ideas. But Munger does not fully agree with Graham. He believes that many of Graham's views ignore the reality of the situation. \"There are blind spots in Graham's thinking. He doesn't realize that some businesses are worth investing in ahead of time.\"</p><p>It is at this point that Buffett believes that Munger has the greatest influence on him, and uses strong willpower to release him from Graham's limited views and push him into the direction of \"buying high-quality assets at the right price\".</p><p>It is precisely because of this that Buffett said, \"Without Munger, I would be much poorer than I am now.\" The classic investment case of Buffett buying BYD and making more than 20 times the profit, which everyone talks about, was also a decision made by Buffett after Munger's strong insistence. \"I'd love to say that it was my decision to invest in BYD, but no, it wasn't my decision to invest in BYD, nor the decision of my investment team, but one day Munger called me and said: We have to invest in BYD.\"</p><p>Munger never blindly follows experts in life. He has his own doctors and accountants, and he will refer to their opinions, but he will not believe them all. He weighed what they said, then studied it himself, and finally came to a conclusion.</p><p><b>Secondly, the role of reading is beyond imagination.</b></p><p>Munger is a voracious scholar. His room, bed, and chair are full of books, but he is not a fan of novels. What he reads is either business, biography, history or science and technology, all based on facts.</p><p>Munger said, \"I'm very clear about why I'm collecting this information. I think about the facts I want to know before I start, and then judge whether the data I see matches the basic concepts. A lot of purposeful reading can create a subconscious habit of connecting what I read with the basic concepts, and gradually accumulate wisdom about investing. You can't be a really good investor without a lot of reading. \"</p><p>Munger believes that reading business magazines is a shortcut.</p><p>Buffett and I have learned more from excellent business magazines than anywhere else. Just flipping through issue after issue quickly can get all kinds of business lessons. This method is so simple and effective. He said that if you want to be smart, you have to constantly ask why, why, why.</p><p>Munger is also a biography freak. He believes that when you want to master some effective great ideas, it is best to combine them with the life and personality of great men. It sounds funny to \"make friends with the right-minded leavers\", but if you do it all your life, it definitely helps.</p><p>Munger studied the lives and scientific works of Einstein, Darwin and Newton, but his favorite leaving man was always Franklin. Munger appreciated Franklin as the best writer, investor, scientist, diplomat and businessman in America at that time, and made great contributions to education and social welfare.</p><p>It was from Franklin that Munger formed the idea that you must become rich to freely contribute to human society. \"I've always been more interested in being a useful person than simply being rich\".</p><p><b>Third, the necessary interdisciplinary thinking.</b></p><p>Munger believes that a person with only a single disciplinary thinking is like a person with only one hammer. And as the famous saying goes, to someone with only one hammer, any problem looks like a nail. People who think in a single discipline have great limitations.</p><p>To form interdisciplinary thinking, Munger's suggestion is that everyone should not be required to keep pace with Laplace's mastery of celestial mechanics, nor should ordinary people be required to reach such a superb level in other fields of knowledge.</p><p>On the contrary, there are not many really important concepts in each discipline, and only a general understanding is needed to grasp the essence. As long as you master the most basic principles and concepts in the discipline, and then constantly apply them, and practice using various discipline thinking to solve practical problems, you can eventually form an advantage for yourself.</p><p>He used himself as an example: he has never studied psychology seriously, but he is interested in psychology and has conducted some self-study. With the content of self-study, he has gained great advantages in investment and life; As a law school student, my professional study is far from natural science, but because I have studied mathematics and physics carefully and mastered some thinking methods of natural science, I have gained the overall thinking advantage. He said:</p><p>I learned from physicists to solve problems by looking for the simplest and most direct answers. The easiest way is always the best way. I also learned from mathematicians to look at the problem upside down, or look at it from the opposite side, reverse and reverse again. 2. In Munger's eyes, the road to wealth and freedom is simple</p><p><b>1. Know yourself well</b></p><p>Munger believes that everyone who wants to participate in the investment game must understand their own nature and must consider their marginal utility and psychological endurance before they can start investing.</p><p>If losses make you miserable-and some losses are inevitable-you should choose a very conservative approach to investing and saving throughout your life. You must incorporate your nature and talent into your investment strategy. There is no universally applicable investment strategy.<b>2. Invest in good business</b></p><p>Before acquiring See's Candy, Buffett and Munger were still bargain professionals. \"If they asked for another $100,000, we wouldn't have bought it,\" Munger said. \"We were so stupid.\"</p><p>When they discovered that See's Candy was an excellent business, Munger realized that it was much easier and enjoyable to buy a high-quality business to keep it running than to buy a struggling company at a low price and then spend time and effort to save it.</p><p>Buffett said that if they hadn't bought See's candy, they might not have bought Coca-Cola later. Munger said:</p><p>I've learned a lot from See's Candy: The way you think and do things must stand the test of time. This experience has made us make more informed acquisitions elsewhere and make better decisions.<b>3. Learn to judge whether a business is a good business</b></p><p>Munger has unusually accurate judgments about business. Buffett once said, \"Munger can analyze and evaluate any transaction faster and more accurately than anyone else in the world. He can see all possible flaws in 60 seconds, and he is a perfect partner.\"</p><p>Munger believes that to judge whether a business is a good business, you need to ask how long can this situation last?</p><p>I only know one way to answer this question, and that is to think about what caused the present situation-and then figure out how long before the driving force for these results will cease to exist.<b>4. When buying stocks in the stock market, what should the stock price be</b></p><p>Having the ability to answer this question explains why some people invest successfully and others don't. \"But then again, if it weren't for a bit of difficulty, everyone would be rich,\" Munger firmly believes.</p><p>Looking at the industry for a long time will give investors better insight in answering this question.</p><p>There used to be a lot of downtown department stores, which seemed invincible. The owner provides customers with a large number of shopping options, strong purchasing power, and also owns the most expensive property in the city. Many tram lines pass by on the corner of the mall. However, over time, private cars became the dominant mode of transportation. The trams disappeared, customers moved to suburbs to live, and shopping malls became the main shopping venue. Some simple changes in our lives can completely change the long-term value of a business.<b>5. Consider redundancy factor</b></p><p>Munger said that although few companies stand tall, every company should be founded expecting to exist for many years. \"Building a dangerous bridge is a crime, but how noble is setting up a fragile company?\" Therefore, Munger believes that the \"redundancy factor\" of enterprises should be considered. Just as when building a bridge, redundancy factor is needed to cope with extreme pressure, the company should also be able to resist the pressure from competitors, economic recessions, oil crises and other natural and man-made disasters. Excessive use of leverage tools or debt will make companies vulnerable to economic storms.</p><p>Many Chinese investors have found that Munger has a spirit and tradition similar to that of traditional Chinese scholar-bureaucrats-he gains wisdom through learning, relies entirely on self-cultivation to achieve business success, adheres to ideals and beliefs, follows moral principles, is rational, honest, optimistic, and full of ultimate concern for society. Reading Munger's biography and getting to know Munger is an unusual journey for us to explore the ways of success in the business society.</p><p><b>Munger's golden sentence:</b></p><p>You definitely have to do business with high caliber people and never wrestle with a pig because if you do you will both get dirty, but the pig will enjoy it.</p><p>The difference between a good business and a bad business is that in a good business, you will make one easy decision after another, while the decisions of a bad business are often extremely painful.</p><p>I am a biographer myself. For example, if you become friends with Adam Smith, you will definitely do economics better. It sounds funny to make friends with great people who have passed away, but if you do this all your life, you will benefit a lot.</p><p>In the final analysis, the investment game is about making more accurate predictions about the future than others. How to do it? One approach is to have this competition in a limited number of regions. If you try to predict the future of everything, you will fail because of your lack of expertise.</p><p>If you want to be smart you have to keep asking why? Why? Why? At the same time, you have to connect the answers to the deep theory of coherence. You have to know those main theories. It's slightly laborious, but full of fun.</p><p>Munger never directs people on exactly what they should do. What he gave the audience was a map where the treasures of wisdom could be found. Only when you truly understand the meaning of the instructions and follow them all the way to the end will the door to the treasure open for you.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | Munger: Do these things well, and the road to wealth and freedom is simple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | Munger: Do these things well, and the road to wealth and freedom is simple\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期乐会</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-21 22:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Munger believes that everyone who wants to participate in the investment game must understand their own nature and must consider their marginal utility and psychological endurance before they can start investing. For decades, there has been a man standing silently behind the aura of stock god Buffett, and he is Charlie Munger. They met when they were young, appreciated each other, and their values were highly consistent. Buffett said without words: Without Munger, I would be much poorer than I am now. I am beyond words of gratitude to him. They are life partners with equal wisdom and co-creators of the investment miracle with a compound annual growth rate of 19.2% in 51 years. The difference is that Munger is too low-key. Every spring, thousands of people travel to Omaha, Nebraska, to attend Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting. They are going to see Buffett, but they are also very interested in the man sitting beside Buffett on the stage and helping the Omaha wise man answer questions from time to time.</p><p>The performance usually goes like this:</p><p>Buffett answers the question first, and the length of time is up to him. When he arrived, he would turn to Munger and ask: Is there anything else you want to add? Munger sat there motionless, and answered simply and crudely: Nothing to add. Occasionally, based on his rich experience and experience, Munger will also put forward some opinions, and then say a short paragraph. Once Munger speaks, the audience listens to his opinion with full attention. On the way to pursue the wisdom of life, he didn't care whether he stood in the spotlight. Even, he hopes that his wealth will remain just below the level of Forbes' rich list, so that he can avoid the spotlight and public attention. Buffett's eldest son once said: My dad is the second smartest person I know, and Charlie Munger is the first.</p><p>Munger is an outstanding investment thinker, but he was not born like this. In his only authorized biography, \"Buffett's Behind-the-Scenes Think Tank: The Biography of Charlie Munger\", he showed the details of his thinking and the key to becoming an investment big coffee.</p><p>1. Self-improvement is the most important</p><p>Munger said, \"To win first place, you have to get ahead and never stand still. I always get into a business better than everyone else. Why? The answer is to learn yourself. That's a really good idea that works.\"</p><p><b>What Munger said about self-study is never-ending self-improvement.</b>On this road of self-improvement, he values three points most:</p><p><b>First, think for yourself.</b></p><p>He said that if you completely rely on others in the process of thinking and always listen to other people's so-called \"professional opinions\", once you leave your own small world, you will be in disaster.</p><p>Graham is Buffett's teacher, the originator of value investing, and the main source of Buffett's early investment ideas. But Munger does not fully agree with Graham. He believes that many of Graham's views ignore the reality of the situation. \"There are blind spots in Graham's thinking. He doesn't realize that some businesses are worth investing in ahead of time.\"</p><p>It is at this point that Buffett believes that Munger has the greatest influence on him, and uses strong willpower to release him from Graham's limited views and push him into the direction of \"buying high-quality assets at the right price\".</p><p>It is precisely because of this that Buffett said, \"Without Munger, I would be much poorer than I am now.\" The classic investment case of Buffett buying BYD and making more than 20 times the profit, which everyone talks about, was also a decision made by Buffett after Munger's strong insistence. \"I'd love to say that it was my decision to invest in BYD, but no, it wasn't my decision to invest in BYD, nor the decision of my investment team, but one day Munger called me and said: We have to invest in BYD.\"</p><p>Munger never blindly follows experts in life. He has his own doctors and accountants, and he will refer to their opinions, but he will not believe them all. He weighed what they said, then studied it himself, and finally came to a conclusion.</p><p><b>Secondly, the role of reading is beyond imagination.</b></p><p>Munger is a voracious scholar. His room, bed, and chair are full of books, but he is not a fan of novels. What he reads is either business, biography, history or science and technology, all based on facts.</p><p>Munger said, \"I'm very clear about why I'm collecting this information. I think about the facts I want to know before I start, and then judge whether the data I see matches the basic concepts. A lot of purposeful reading can create a subconscious habit of connecting what I read with the basic concepts, and gradually accumulate wisdom about investing. You can't be a really good investor without a lot of reading. \"</p><p>Munger believes that reading business magazines is a shortcut.</p><p>Buffett and I have learned more from excellent business magazines than anywhere else. Just flipping through issue after issue quickly can get all kinds of business lessons. This method is so simple and effective. He said that if you want to be smart, you have to constantly ask why, why, why.</p><p>Munger is also a biography freak. He believes that when you want to master some effective great ideas, it is best to combine them with the life and personality of great men. It sounds funny to \"make friends with the right-minded leavers\", but if you do it all your life, it definitely helps.</p><p>Munger studied the lives and scientific works of Einstein, Darwin and Newton, but his favorite leaving man was always Franklin. Munger appreciated Franklin as the best writer, investor, scientist, diplomat and businessman in America at that time, and made great contributions to education and social welfare.</p><p>It was from Franklin that Munger formed the idea that you must become rich to freely contribute to human society. \"I've always been more interested in being a useful person than simply being rich\".</p><p><b>Third, the necessary interdisciplinary thinking.</b></p><p>Munger believes that a person with only a single disciplinary thinking is like a person with only one hammer. And as the famous saying goes, to someone with only one hammer, any problem looks like a nail. People who think in a single discipline have great limitations.</p><p>To form interdisciplinary thinking, Munger's suggestion is that everyone should not be required to keep pace with Laplace's mastery of celestial mechanics, nor should ordinary people be required to reach such a superb level in other fields of knowledge.</p><p>On the contrary, there are not many really important concepts in each discipline, and only a general understanding is needed to grasp the essence. As long as you master the most basic principles and concepts in the discipline, and then constantly apply them, and practice using various discipline thinking to solve practical problems, you can eventually form an advantage for yourself.</p><p>He used himself as an example: he has never studied psychology seriously, but he is interested in psychology and has conducted some self-study. With the content of self-study, he has gained great advantages in investment and life; As a law school student, my professional study is far from natural science, but because I have studied mathematics and physics carefully and mastered some thinking methods of natural science, I have gained the overall thinking advantage. He said:</p><p>I learned from physicists to solve problems by looking for the simplest and most direct answers. The easiest way is always the best way. I also learned from mathematicians to look at the problem upside down, or look at it from the opposite side, reverse and reverse again. 2. In Munger's eyes, the road to wealth and freedom is simple</p><p><b>1. Know yourself well</b></p><p>Munger believes that everyone who wants to participate in the investment game must understand their own nature and must consider their marginal utility and psychological endurance before they can start investing.</p><p>If losses make you miserable-and some losses are inevitable-you should choose a very conservative approach to investing and saving throughout your life. You must incorporate your nature and talent into your investment strategy. There is no universally applicable investment strategy.<b>2. Invest in good business</b></p><p>Before acquiring See's Candy, Buffett and Munger were still bargain professionals. \"If they asked for another $100,000, we wouldn't have bought it,\" Munger said. \"We were so stupid.\"</p><p>When they discovered that See's Candy was an excellent business, Munger realized that it was much easier and enjoyable to buy a high-quality business to keep it running than to buy a struggling company at a low price and then spend time and effort to save it.</p><p>Buffett said that if they hadn't bought See's candy, they might not have bought Coca-Cola later. Munger said:</p><p>I've learned a lot from See's Candy: The way you think and do things must stand the test of time. This experience has made us make more informed acquisitions elsewhere and make better decisions.<b>3. Learn to judge whether a business is a good business</b></p><p>Munger has unusually accurate judgments about business. Buffett once said, \"Munger can analyze and evaluate any transaction faster and more accurately than anyone else in the world. He can see all possible flaws in 60 seconds, and he is a perfect partner.\"</p><p>Munger believes that to judge whether a business is a good business, you need to ask how long can this situation last?</p><p>I only know one way to answer this question, and that is to think about what caused the present situation-and then figure out how long before the driving force for these results will cease to exist.<b>4. When buying stocks in the stock market, what should the stock price be</b></p><p>Having the ability to answer this question explains why some people invest successfully and others don't. \"But then again, if it weren't for a bit of difficulty, everyone would be rich,\" Munger firmly believes.</p><p>Looking at the industry for a long time will give investors better insight in answering this question.</p><p>There used to be a lot of downtown department stores, which seemed invincible. The owner provides customers with a large number of shopping options, strong purchasing power, and also owns the most expensive property in the city. Many tram lines pass by on the corner of the mall. However, over time, private cars became the dominant mode of transportation. The trams disappeared, customers moved to suburbs to live, and shopping malls became the main shopping venue. Some simple changes in our lives can completely change the long-term value of a business.<b>5. Consider redundancy factor</b></p><p>Munger said that although few companies stand tall, every company should be founded expecting to exist for many years. \"Building a dangerous bridge is a crime, but how noble is setting up a fragile company?\" Therefore, Munger believes that the \"redundancy factor\" of enterprises should be considered. Just as when building a bridge, redundancy factor is needed to cope with extreme pressure, the company should also be able to resist the pressure from competitors, economic recessions, oil crises and other natural and man-made disasters. Excessive use of leverage tools or debt will make companies vulnerable to economic storms.</p><p>Many Chinese investors have found that Munger has a spirit and tradition similar to that of traditional Chinese scholar-bureaucrats-he gains wisdom through learning, relies entirely on self-cultivation to achieve business success, adheres to ideals and beliefs, follows moral principles, is rational, honest, optimistic, and full of ultimate concern for society. Reading Munger's biography and getting to know Munger is an unusual journey for us to explore the ways of success in the business society.</p><p><b>Munger's golden sentence:</b></p><p>You definitely have to do business with high caliber people and never wrestle with a pig because if you do you will both get dirty, but the pig will enjoy it.</p><p>The difference between a good business and a bad business is that in a good business, you will make one easy decision after another, while the decisions of a bad business are often extremely painful.</p><p>I am a biographer myself. For example, if you become friends with Adam Smith, you will definitely do economics better. It sounds funny to make friends with great people who have passed away, but if you do this all your life, you will benefit a lot.</p><p>In the final analysis, the investment game is about making more accurate predictions about the future than others. How to do it? One approach is to have this competition in a limited number of regions. If you try to predict the future of everything, you will fail because of your lack of expertise.</p><p>If you want to be smart you have to keep asking why? Why? Why? At the same time, you have to connect the answers to the deep theory of coherence. You have to know those main theories. It's slightly laborious, but full of fun.</p><p>Munger never directs people on exactly what they should do. What he gave the audience was a map where the treasures of wisdom could be found. Only when you truly understand the meaning of the instructions and follow them all the way to the end will the door to the treasure open for you.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JhLeIViECJAVJNuuvMNDPA\">期乐会</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d30d3e4a8c584dc0c7143999338c880","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JhLeIViECJAVJNuuvMNDPA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129199259","content_text":"芒格认为,每个人想参与投资游戏的人都必须了解自己的天性,都必须在考虑自己的边际效用和心理承受能力后才能开始投资。几十年以来,在股神巴菲特的光环背后默默站着一个人,他就是查理·芒格。他们年轻时相识,彼此欣赏,价值观高度一致,巴菲特毫不讳言地说:没有芒格,我会比现在贫穷很多。我对他的感激无以言表。他们是智慧相当的人生合伙人,是51年年复合增长率19.2%的投资奇迹共同的创造者,不同之处在于芒格实在过于低调。每年春天,数以千计的人前往位于内布拉斯加州的奥马哈参加伯克希尔公司的年度股东大会,他们是去看巴菲特的,不过对台上那个坐在巴菲特身边,时不时帮助这位奥马哈智者回答问题的人,他们也非常感兴趣。表演通常是这样进行的:巴菲特先回答问题,时间长短由他决定。临了,他会转向芒格,问道:你还有什么要补充的吗?芒格一动不动地端坐在那里,回答简单而粗率:没什么要补充的。偶尔,芒格基于自身丰富的阅历和经验,也会提出一些观点,然后说上一小段。一旦芒格开口说话,听众们都会全神贯注地听他发表看法。在追寻人生智慧的途中,他不在意自己是否站在聚光灯下。甚至,他希望自己的财富恰好保持在福布斯富豪榜名单的水准之下,这样他就能避开聚光灯,免受公众的关注。巴菲特的长子曾说:我爸是我认识的人中第二聪明的,查理•芒格第一。芒格是一位杰出的投资思想家,但他并非生来如此,他在自己唯一授权的传记《巴菲特幕后智囊:查理·芒格传》一书中,展示了自己思考的细节和成为投资大咖的关键。一、自我提升最重要芒格认为:\"要想赢得第一,就必须占得先机,千万不要原地踏步。我总是刚刚涉足某一业务就比其他人干得都要好。为什么?答案就是通过自学来提高修养,这才是真正行之有效的好主意。\"芒格说的自学,就是永不停歇的自我提升。在这条自我提升之路上,他最看重的有三点:首先,独立思考。他说,如果你在思考过程中完全依赖他人,总是听别人的所谓“专业意见”,一旦你离开自己的小天地,就会大难临头。格雷厄姆是巴菲特的老师,价值投资的开山鼻祖,巴菲特前期投资思想的主要来源。但芒格并不完全认同格雷厄姆,他认为格雷厄姆很多观点无视现实情况。“格雷厄姆思想中有盲点,他没有意识到有的生意值得提前投入。”正是在这一点上,巴菲特认为芒格对他的影响最大,用强大的意志力把他从格雷厄姆有局限性的观点中释放出来,推向了\"以合适价格买优质资产\"这个方向。也正是因为这一点,巴菲特才说,\"没有芒格,我会比现在贫穷很多\"。大家津津乐道的巴菲特购买比亚迪,大赚20多倍的经典投资案例,也是在芒格极力坚持下,巴菲特才做出的决定。\"我很想说投资比亚迪是我的决定,但不是,投资比亚迪不是我的决定,也不是我的投资团队的决定,而是有一天芒格打电话给我说:我们必须投资比亚迪。\"芒格在生活中也绝不盲从专家,他有自己的医生、会计师,他会参考他们的意见,但不会全信。他斟酌他们说的,然后自己研究,最后才得出结论。其次,阅读的作用超乎想象。芒格是一个如饥似渴的读书人,他的房间里、床上、椅子上到处是书,但他并不是一个小说迷,他看的不是商业类、传记类就是历史类或者科技类,都是以事实为基础的。芒格说:\"我对自己为什么要搜集这些信息十分清晰。在开始之前就想好要了解哪些事实,然后去判断所看到的数据是否符合基本概念。大量有目的的阅读可以让人在潜意识里养成一种习惯,把读到的东西和基本概念联系起来,逐渐就会累积起有关投资的智慧。如果没有进行过大量的阅读,不可能成为一个真正出色的投资人。\"芒格认为,阅读商业杂志是一条捷径。巴菲特和我从优秀的商业类杂志中学到的比其他任何地方学到的都要多,只要很快地翻阅一期又一期的杂志,就可以得到各种各样的商业经验,这种方法是如此简单而有效。他说,你要想变得聪明一点,就必须不断地问为什么、为什么、为什么。芒格还是一个传记狂。他认为,要掌握一些行之有效的伟大观念时,最好和伟人的生平和个性结合起来。\"和思路正确的离世伟人交朋友\"听起来滑稽,但是如果一生都这样做,绝对大有裨益。芒格研究过爱因斯坦、达尔文和牛顿的生平和科学著作,不过他最喜欢的离世伟人从来都是富兰克林。芒格欣赏富兰克林是当时美国最好的作家、投资家、科学家、外交家、商人,同时为教育和社会福利事业做出了巨大的贡献。芒格正是从富兰克林那里形成了一种观念:要变得富有才能自由地为人类社会做贡献。\"我从来都对成为一个有用的人兴趣更大,而不是单纯地变得有钱\"。第三,必需的跨学科思维。芒格认为,只有单一学科思维的人,就像只有一把锤子的人。而就像那句著名的谚语说的那样,对只有一把锤子的人来说,任何问题看起来都很像钉子。单一学科思维的人具有很大局限性。而要形成跨学科思维,芒格的建议是,不能苛求每个人对天体力学的掌握达到与拉普拉斯并驾齐驱的地步,也不应苛求普通人在其他知识领域也达到如此精湛的水平。相反,每门学科真正重要的概念并不多,只需要大体了解,就能掌握精髓。而只要掌握学科中最基本的原理和概念,然后不断运用,练习用多种学科思维来解决实际问题,最终就能让自己形成优势。他用自己举例:从来没正经学过心理学,但对心理学有兴趣,进行了一些自学,凭借自学的内容,就在投资和生活中获得了巨大优势;作为法学院的学生,专业学习离自然科学很远,但因为认真学过数学课和物理课,掌握了自然科学的一些思考方法,就获得了整体的思维优势。他说:我从物理学家那里学会了通过寻找最简单、最直接的答案来解决问题。最容易的方法永远都是最好的方法。我又从数学家那里学会了将问题倒过来看,或者从反面去看,反转,再反转。二、在芒格眼里,通往财富自由之路是简单的1.充分了解自己芒格认为,每个人想参与投资游戏的人都必须了解自己的天性,都必须在考虑自己的边际效用和心理承受能力后才能开始投资。如果亏损会让你痛苦——而且有些亏损是不可避免的——那你毕生都应该选择一种非常保守的投资和储蓄方式。你必须将自己的天性和天分融入自己的投资策略中,没有一种普遍适用的投资策略。2.要投好生意在收购喜诗糖果之前,巴菲特和芒格还是捡便宜专业户。\"要是他们再多要10万美元,我们就不会买了,\"芒格说,\"我们当时就是那么愚蠢\"。当他们发现喜诗糖果是一桩出色的生意后,芒格意识到,收购一笔优质业务让它继续运作下去,比买下一家价格很低却在苦苦挣扎的公司,然后费时费力去拯救它要容易和愉快得多。巴菲特说,如果没有买喜诗糖果,那他们可能后面也就不会买可口可乐了。芒格则说:从喜诗糖果我学到了很多:思考和行事方式必须经得起时间的考验。这样的经验让我们在其他地方的收购更为明智,做出了更好的决定。3.要学会判断一门生意是不是好生意芒格对于生意有异乎寻常的准确判断。巴菲特曾经说,\"芒格能比世界上任何人更快更准地分析和评估任何一项交易。他能在60秒内看到所有可能的缺陷,他是一个完美的合伙人。\"芒格认为,要判断一门生意是不是好生意,就需要问这样的情况能持续多久?我只知道一种方法来回答这个问题,那就是思考:是什么造成了现在的局面——然后去弄明白造成这些结果的动力多久后将不复存在。4.在股市里买股票,股价应该是多少是否有能力回答这个问题就解释了为什么有人投资成功而有人没有。\"不过话说回来,要不是这个问题有一点难度的话,每个人都会变得有钱。\"芒格坚定地认为。长期观察行业情况会让投资者在回答这个问题上有更好的洞察力。以前有很多市中心百货商店,看来是不可战胜的。店主为顾客提供大量购物选择、购买力强大,还拥有城里最贵的物业,商场街角多条有轨电车线路经过。然而,随着时间的推移,私家车成了主要的交通模式。有轨电车的轨道消失了,顾客们搬到了郊区居住,购物中心成了主要购物场所。我们生活中一些简单的变化就能完全改变一项业务的长期价值。5.考虑冗余系数芒格说,虽然很少有公司屹立不倒,但是每一家公司都应该在创建的时候预计到要存着许多年。\"造一座危桥是犯罪,成立一家脆弱的公司又何尝高尚?\"所以,芒格认为应该考虑企业的\"冗余系数\",就像修桥的时候,需要冗余系数来应对极端压力,公司也应该能抵抗来自竞争者、经济衰退、石油危机以及其他天灾人祸的压力。过多地运用杠杆工具或欠债都会让公司在经济风暴中脆弱得不堪一击。很多中国投资家发现芒格身上有类似中国传统士大夫的精神和传统——他通过学习获取智慧,完全依靠自身修养获得商业成功,坚守理想和信念,遵循道德准则,理性、诚实、乐观、对社会充满终极关怀。阅读芒格传记,了解芒格,是我们探索商业社会成功方式的一次不同寻常的旅程。芒格金句:你一定要和高水准的人做生意,永远不要和一头猪玩摔跤,因为如果你这么做了,你们两个都会变脏,但是猪会乐在其中。好企业和差企业之间的区别在于,在好企业里你会做出一个接一个的轻松决定,而差企业的决定则常常是痛苦万分的。我本人是一个传记狂,比如你要是和亚当·斯密成了朋友,那你一定会把经济学得更好。跟离世的伟人交朋友,这听起来很滑稽,但如果你一生都这样做,你会受益匪浅。投资游戏说到底就是要比其他人对未来做出更准确的预言。要如何做到呢?一种方法是将这种竞争在有限的几个区域中进行。如果你试图预言所有事情的未来,你会因为缺乏专长而失败。如果你想变得聪明,你就必须不停地问为什么?为什么?为什么?同时你还必须将答案和有条理的深层理论联系起来。你必须知道那些最主要的理论。这稍微会有些费力,但充满乐趣。芒格从不指导人们具体应该做些什么。他交给听众的是一幅能找到智慧宝藏的地图。只有当你真正理解了指令的含义并且一路遵循到底,宝藏的大门才会为你而开。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314541405,"gmtCreate":1612364186707,"gmtModify":1704870270384,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567665939928011","idStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"……","listText":"……","text":"……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314541405","repostId":"314818962","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":314818962,"gmtCreate":1612330654052,"gmtModify":1704869804059,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91101bd3142b32495c3131036d5f8afa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514329116425907","idStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"title":"視頻|“女股神”木頭姐如何看待WSB事件?","htmlText":"\n \n \n 昨夜ARK ETF的創始人凱西·伍德接受雅虎財經節目採訪討論了她對Reddit、GameStop、潛在的債券泡沫和賣空者的看法。本期視頻精彩要點如下: Cathie Wood認爲千禧一代(90-00後)比嬰兒潮一代(80後)對股票更感興趣,這也是促成Reddit上形成 WSB效應的一些因素, 她一直都在關注WSB事件,在她看來WSB抱團做多現象是積極的,對股票市場和加密貨幣市場都有積極影響。 她認爲對衝基金在其中並不完全無辜,一個有趣的事情是對衝基金實際上是在協助和教唆這一現象。 WSB導致一些經營困難的公司債券價格提升,AMC是其中典型債券價格已經翻了三倍。 以ARK投資特斯拉爲例,此前埃隆·馬斯克曾嘗試將特斯拉私有化,導致股價大跌,2019年的時候特斯拉股價大跌,市場上看空的聲音很多,但是ARK堅定買入並長期看多特斯拉。後來2020年特斯拉股價大漲,ARK獲利頗豐,到今天,特斯拉依然是ARK最典型的一項投資。 她認爲這輪做空,除對衝基金以外,也有散戶投資者參與其中。現在WSB股票的波動已經到了一種離譜的情況,她會繼續關注下去看是什麼樣的收場。 WSB的最大受益方是銀行,而最終的參與者可能會損失慘重。 關於債券泡沫也值得大家關注,具體貌似沒有深入聊[吃瓜]後面是主持人聊天,沒啥意思,我就不翻了,大家看視頻吧,我繼續幹飯了[真香] 事先聲明:如果翻譯有錯,都是字幕軟件的鍋[正經]爲了提高準確率,這期我都是照着字幕軟件提取的英文翻譯成中字的[流淚]關於ARK Invest介紹:ARK 可以說是特斯拉最著名的多頭支持者之一,並且一直維持對特斯拉的最樂觀長期目標價。ARK Invest 也是極少數能考慮到特斯拉在自動駕駛、全自動駕駛套件,及埃隆·馬斯克 (Elon Musk) 計劃推出的共享出行服務 (Robotaxi net\n \n","listText":"昨夜ARK ETF的創始人凱西·伍德接受雅虎財經節目採訪討論了她對Reddit、GameStop、潛在的債券泡沫和賣空者的看法。本期視頻精彩要點如下: Cathie Wood認爲千禧一代(90-00後)比嬰兒潮一代(80後)對股票更感興趣,這也是促成Reddit上形成 WSB效應的一些因素, 她一直都在關注WSB事件,在她看來WSB抱團做多現象是積極的,對股票市場和加密貨幣市場都有積極影響。 她認爲對衝基金在其中並不完全無辜,一個有趣的事情是對衝基金實際上是在協助和教唆這一現象。 WSB導致一些經營困難的公司債券價格提升,AMC是其中典型債券價格已經翻了三倍。 以ARK投資特斯拉爲例,此前埃隆·馬斯克曾嘗試將特斯拉私有化,導致股價大跌,2019年的時候特斯拉股價大跌,市場上看空的聲音很多,但是ARK堅定買入並長期看多特斯拉。後來2020年特斯拉股價大漲,ARK獲利頗豐,到今天,特斯拉依然是ARK最典型的一項投資。 她認爲這輪做空,除對衝基金以外,也有散戶投資者參與其中。現在WSB股票的波動已經到了一種離譜的情況,她會繼續關注下去看是什麼樣的收場。 WSB的最大受益方是銀行,而最終的參與者可能會損失慘重。 關於債券泡沫也值得大家關注,具體貌似沒有深入聊[吃瓜]後面是主持人聊天,沒啥意思,我就不翻了,大家看視頻吧,我繼續幹飯了[真香] 事先聲明:如果翻譯有錯,都是字幕軟件的鍋[正經]爲了提高準確率,這期我都是照着字幕軟件提取的英文翻譯成中字的[流淚]關於ARK Invest介紹:ARK 可以說是特斯拉最著名的多頭支持者之一,並且一直維持對特斯拉的最樂觀長期目標價。ARK Invest 也是極少數能考慮到特斯拉在自動駕駛、全自動駕駛套件,及埃隆·馬斯克 (Elon Musk) 計劃推出的共享出行服務 (Robotaxi net","text":"昨夜ARK ETF的創始人凱西·伍德接受雅虎財經節目採訪討論了她對Reddit、GameStop、潛在的債券泡沫和賣空者的看法。本期視頻精彩要點如下: Cathie Wood認爲千禧一代(90-00後)比嬰兒潮一代(80後)對股票更感興趣,這也是促成Reddit上形成 WSB效應的一些因素, 她一直都在關注WSB事件,在她看來WSB抱團做多現象是積極的,對股票市場和加密貨幣市場都有積極影響。 她認爲對衝基金在其中並不完全無辜,一個有趣的事情是對衝基金實際上是在協助和教唆這一現象。 WSB導致一些經營困難的公司債券價格提升,AMC是其中典型債券價格已經翻了三倍。 以ARK投資特斯拉爲例,此前埃隆·馬斯克曾嘗試將特斯拉私有化,導致股價大跌,2019年的時候特斯拉股價大跌,市場上看空的聲音很多,但是ARK堅定買入並長期看多特斯拉。後來2020年特斯拉股價大漲,ARK獲利頗豐,到今天,特斯拉依然是ARK最典型的一項投資。 她認爲這輪做空,除對衝基金以外,也有散戶投資者參與其中。現在WSB股票的波動已經到了一種離譜的情況,她會繼續關注下去看是什麼樣的收場。 WSB的最大受益方是銀行,而最終的參與者可能會損失慘重。 關於債券泡沫也值得大家關注,具體貌似沒有深入聊[吃瓜]後面是主持人聊天,沒啥意思,我就不翻了,大家看視頻吧,我繼續幹飯了[真香] 事先聲明:如果翻譯有錯,都是字幕軟件的鍋[正經]爲了提高準確率,這期我都是照着字幕軟件提取的英文翻譯成中字的[流淚]關於ARK Invest介紹:ARK 可以說是特斯拉最著名的多頭支持者之一,並且一直維持對特斯拉的最樂觀長期目標價。ARK Invest 也是極少數能考慮到特斯拉在自動駕駛、全自動駕駛套件,及埃隆·馬斯克 (Elon Musk) 計劃推出的共享出行服務 (Robotaxi net","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314818962","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"a971d82ac9b743ada2fe945038ce6e84","tweetId":"314818962","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/27e1f7ecvodtransgzp1254107296/2585544c5285890813677347121/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/316326daf727020111951106780844fe"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316658138,"gmtCreate":1611931731224,"gmtModify":1704866148648,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567665939928011","idStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316658138","repostId":"316320053","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":316320053,"gmtCreate":1611916856272,"gmtModify":1704865743383,"author":{"id":"3451551789721456","authorId":"3451551789721456","name":"三思期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92ce49aa82ca7a11be1af4fd293beba8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3451551789721456","idStr":"3451551789721456"},"themes":[],"title":"空頭節節敗退,散戶即將迎來終局之戰","htmlText":"本文首發於公衆號:三思期權 感謝大家對我們上一篇文章<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/313256601\" target=\"_blank\">《散戶如何用期權拉爆百億美元對衝基金》</a>的喜愛。我們雖然熬夜逐字逐句修改文章,推敲邏輯,最後被大家認可讓我們非常感動。感謝那些打賞,點贊,轉發,給我們留言鼓勵的讀者。另外,我們也收到了非常多的讀者留言,希望我們跟蹤事態的發展,那我們就繼續熬一個夜,爲大家奉上最新的事態發展。 昨夜GME的多空爭奪進入了白熱化。股價盤後從147離譜的跳漲到215,誰知道今天更是被被拉到375。短短三天之內這個本已經處於高位的股票又被拉昇了三倍。 週二GME股票的交易量達到200億美金,小小的一個線下游戲股交易額竟然超過了蘋果特斯拉!爲什麼今天漲幅這麼高,交易量這麼大?今天誰又賺錢了?誰又爆倉了? 1. 多頭增援 從昨天截稿之後,讓市場意想不到的是多頭竟然出現了重量級的支援。Chamath Palihapitiya 在推特上宣佈買入5萬張行權價爲$115的2月看漲合約之後,燃爆了原本已經非常亢奮的WSB。 這位Chamath是一位斯里蘭卡裔的美籍投資人,作爲臉書的早期員工,2021年離開時已經完成了人生小目標。隨後建立了自己的風投公司,做的也是風生水起,連中幾個獨角獸! 除此之外,他2012年就買3百萬美金的比特幣,隨後也重倉買入特斯拉,並在CNBC上公開懟當時就在做空的Jim Chanos(這位對衝基金Kynikos的創始人,在做空特斯拉5年後,平了股票空頭,慘敗收場,目前只買看跌期權,謹慎做空)。可見他對比特幣空頭,股票空頭早就有了深深的偏見。他重度參與多個SPAC(Special Purpose Acquisation Company 特殊目的收購公司)也是飽受爭議。 多了個有資歷,有聲望,有米的眼光獨到的成功投資人的","listText":"本文首發於公衆號:三思期權 感謝大家對我們上一篇文章<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/313256601\" target=\"_blank\">《散戶如何用期權拉爆百億美元對衝基金》</a>的喜愛。我們雖然熬夜逐字逐句修改文章,推敲邏輯,最後被大家認可讓我們非常感動。感謝那些打賞,點贊,轉發,給我們留言鼓勵的讀者。另外,我們也收到了非常多的讀者留言,希望我們跟蹤事態的發展,那我們就繼續熬一個夜,爲大家奉上最新的事態發展。 昨夜GME的多空爭奪進入了白熱化。股價盤後從147離譜的跳漲到215,誰知道今天更是被被拉到375。短短三天之內這個本已經處於高位的股票又被拉昇了三倍。 週二GME股票的交易量達到200億美金,小小的一個線下游戲股交易額竟然超過了蘋果特斯拉!爲什麼今天漲幅這麼高,交易量這麼大?今天誰又賺錢了?誰又爆倉了? 1. 多頭增援 從昨天截稿之後,讓市場意想不到的是多頭竟然出現了重量級的支援。Chamath Palihapitiya 在推特上宣佈買入5萬張行權價爲$115的2月看漲合約之後,燃爆了原本已經非常亢奮的WSB。 這位Chamath是一位斯里蘭卡裔的美籍投資人,作爲臉書的早期員工,2021年離開時已經完成了人生小目標。隨後建立了自己的風投公司,做的也是風生水起,連中幾個獨角獸! 除此之外,他2012年就買3百萬美金的比特幣,隨後也重倉買入特斯拉,並在CNBC上公開懟當時就在做空的Jim Chanos(這位對衝基金Kynikos的創始人,在做空特斯拉5年後,平了股票空頭,慘敗收場,目前只買看跌期權,謹慎做空)。可見他對比特幣空頭,股票空頭早就有了深深的偏見。他重度參與多個SPAC(Special Purpose Acquisation Company 特殊目的收購公司)也是飽受爭議。 多了個有資歷,有聲望,有米的眼光獨到的成功投資人的","text":"本文首發於公衆號:三思期權 感謝大家對我們上一篇文章《散戶如何用期權拉爆百億美元對衝基金》的喜愛。我們雖然熬夜逐字逐句修改文章,推敲邏輯,最後被大家認可讓我們非常感動。感謝那些打賞,點贊,轉發,給我們留言鼓勵的讀者。另外,我們也收到了非常多的讀者留言,希望我們跟蹤事態的發展,那我們就繼續熬一個夜,爲大家奉上最新的事態發展。 昨夜GME的多空爭奪進入了白熱化。股價盤後從147離譜的跳漲到215,誰知道今天更是被被拉到375。短短三天之內這個本已經處於高位的股票又被拉昇了三倍。 週二GME股票的交易量達到200億美金,小小的一個線下游戲股交易額竟然超過了蘋果特斯拉!爲什麼今天漲幅這麼高,交易量這麼大?今天誰又賺錢了?誰又爆倉了? 1. 多頭增援 從昨天截稿之後,讓市場意想不到的是多頭竟然出現了重量級的支援。Chamath Palihapitiya 在推特上宣佈買入5萬張行權價爲$115的2月看漲合約之後,燃爆了原本已經非常亢奮的WSB。 這位Chamath是一位斯里蘭卡裔的美籍投資人,作爲臉書的早期員工,2021年離開時已經完成了人生小目標。隨後建立了自己的風投公司,做的也是風生水起,連中幾個獨角獸! 除此之外,他2012年就買3百萬美金的比特幣,隨後也重倉買入特斯拉,並在CNBC上公開懟當時就在做空的Jim Chanos(這位對衝基金Kynikos的創始人,在做空特斯拉5年後,平了股票空頭,慘敗收場,目前只買看跌期權,謹慎做空)。可見他對比特幣空頭,股票空頭早就有了深深的偏見。他重度參與多個SPAC(Special Purpose Acquisation Company 特殊目的收購公司)也是飽受爭議。 多了個有資歷,有聲望,有米的眼光獨到的成功投資人的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/092a3ca18a2138419802590530a1e0a1","width":"485","height":"402"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffbc899a3966bf31234982e91a7f7658","width":"742","height":"473"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/060d3acdd2e367be4278c52a1bc4cf4d","width":"933","height":"616"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316320053","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":332989896,"gmtCreate":1610274534515,"gmtModify":1704982825075,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567665939928011","idStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332989896","repostId":"338504310","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":338504310,"gmtCreate":1609927451125,"gmtModify":1704980896878,"author":{"id":"3569899433800417","authorId":"3569899433800417","name":"Alan聊特斯拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e551c513d687d0c7013cce40c61bdb7a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569899433800417","idStr":"3569899433800417"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"\n \n \n Vincent 採訪濃縮版,上調目標價810,新高還能買?\n \n","listText":"Vincent 採訪濃縮版,上調目標價810,新高還能買?","text":"Vincent 採訪濃縮版,上調目標價810,新高還能買?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/338504310","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"bf6137a68c084cec92a620bc2fe84e75","tweetId":"338504310","title":"$750 还能买吗?大摩上调目标价$810, Vincent 采访浓缩版,Model Y 毛利30%代表啥","videoUrl":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/160992744743159389732b2d783d19083a59c200b16b1.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e00f315ebb30a26b4866d197c14e9e17","shareLink":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/160992744743159389732b2d783d19083a59c200b16b1.mp4"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336644632,"gmtCreate":1610096725626,"gmtModify":1704982087619,"author":{"id":"3567665939928011","authorId":"3567665939928011","name":"seraph2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3391e117ae079b90cb54b08eec39043","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567665939928011","idStr":"3567665939928011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336644632","repostId":"338869660","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":338869660,"gmtCreate":1609864391250,"gmtModify":1704980558721,"author":{"id":"3555926517215344","authorId":"3555926517215344","name":"走马财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e421cf207f1b9b3827a49f1d17bead5a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555926517215344","idStr":"3555926517215344"},"themes":[],"title":"馬斯克:我的房子賣給了中國人 未來想葬在火星(上)","htmlText":"近日,Business Insider雜誌母公司Axel Springer的首席執行官Mathias Döpfner與<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> CEO埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)會面,討論了爲什麼馬斯克的電動汽車公司會走在無人駕駛汽車革命的最前沿,以及他開啓太空探索的雄心壯志。由於老虎發文限制在10000字以內,本文全文16000字,所以只能分上下兩篇發出。這次採訪中,馬斯克談到了很多領域,觀點一如既往的犀利。*談新冠病毒,他認爲醫學的未來是mRNA,基本上你可以用mRNA治癒一切,它就像一個計算機程序,你可以對它進行編程以執行所需的任何操作。你實際上可以變成一隻蝴蝶。*談競爭,他說特斯拉的目標是加速可持續能源時代的到來,不在於建立護城河之類的東西。特斯拉將向其它公司提供自動駕駛技術許可,幫助它們做正確的事。*談收購,他說特斯拉不想發起敵意收購。如果其它公司找過來,那麼我們也會考慮。*談銷售目標,他說特斯拉未來10年的目標是每年賣出2000萬輛車。*談自動駕駛,他說我非常有信心特斯拉明年將達到L5級,100%。*談財富,他說我賣掉了幾乎所有的房產,只爲了更專注於實現人生目標,他租房住,有時睡工廠裏。*而他最重要的目標之一,就是幫助人類成爲跨星球物種,幫助人類從地球文明跨越到太空文明,所以SpaceX至關重要。以下是訪談全文實錄。Mathias Döpfner:睿智的德國政治家Wolfgang Schauble曾說:“如果我們的憲法中有一條底線,那就是人的尊嚴。這是神聖不可侵犯的。但這並不意味着我們可以避開死亡。”馬斯克:是的,每個人都會死。Döpfner:每個人都會死,但是尊嚴是應該被保護的,即使是在新冠時期。在被感染期間,你是否改變了對病毒的看法?","listText":"近日,Business Insider雜誌母公司Axel Springer的首席執行官Mathias Döpfner與<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> CEO埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)會面,討論了爲什麼馬斯克的電動汽車公司會走在無人駕駛汽車革命的最前沿,以及他開啓太空探索的雄心壯志。由於老虎發文限制在10000字以內,本文全文16000字,所以只能分上下兩篇發出。這次採訪中,馬斯克談到了很多領域,觀點一如既往的犀利。*談新冠病毒,他認爲醫學的未來是mRNA,基本上你可以用mRNA治癒一切,它就像一個計算機程序,你可以對它進行編程以執行所需的任何操作。你實際上可以變成一隻蝴蝶。*談競爭,他說特斯拉的目標是加速可持續能源時代的到來,不在於建立護城河之類的東西。特斯拉將向其它公司提供自動駕駛技術許可,幫助它們做正確的事。*談收購,他說特斯拉不想發起敵意收購。如果其它公司找過來,那麼我們也會考慮。*談銷售目標,他說特斯拉未來10年的目標是每年賣出2000萬輛車。*談自動駕駛,他說我非常有信心特斯拉明年將達到L5級,100%。*談財富,他說我賣掉了幾乎所有的房產,只爲了更專注於實現人生目標,他租房住,有時睡工廠裏。*而他最重要的目標之一,就是幫助人類成爲跨星球物種,幫助人類從地球文明跨越到太空文明,所以SpaceX至關重要。以下是訪談全文實錄。Mathias Döpfner:睿智的德國政治家Wolfgang Schauble曾說:“如果我們的憲法中有一條底線,那就是人的尊嚴。這是神聖不可侵犯的。但這並不意味着我們可以避開死亡。”馬斯克:是的,每個人都會死。Döpfner:每個人都會死,但是尊嚴是應該被保護的,即使是在新冠時期。在被感染期間,你是否改變了對病毒的看法?","text":"近日,Business Insider雜誌母公司Axel Springer的首席執行官Mathias Döpfner與$特斯拉(TSLA)$ CEO埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)會面,討論了爲什麼馬斯克的電動汽車公司會走在無人駕駛汽車革命的最前沿,以及他開啓太空探索的雄心壯志。由於老虎發文限制在10000字以內,本文全文16000字,所以只能分上下兩篇發出。這次採訪中,馬斯克談到了很多領域,觀點一如既往的犀利。*談新冠病毒,他認爲醫學的未來是mRNA,基本上你可以用mRNA治癒一切,它就像一個計算機程序,你可以對它進行編程以執行所需的任何操作。你實際上可以變成一隻蝴蝶。*談競爭,他說特斯拉的目標是加速可持續能源時代的到來,不在於建立護城河之類的東西。特斯拉將向其它公司提供自動駕駛技術許可,幫助它們做正確的事。*談收購,他說特斯拉不想發起敵意收購。如果其它公司找過來,那麼我們也會考慮。*談銷售目標,他說特斯拉未來10年的目標是每年賣出2000萬輛車。*談自動駕駛,他說我非常有信心特斯拉明年將達到L5級,100%。*談財富,他說我賣掉了幾乎所有的房產,只爲了更專注於實現人生目標,他租房住,有時睡工廠裏。*而他最重要的目標之一,就是幫助人類成爲跨星球物種,幫助人類從地球文明跨越到太空文明,所以SpaceX至關重要。以下是訪談全文實錄。Mathias Döpfner:睿智的德國政治家Wolfgang Schauble曾說:“如果我們的憲法中有一條底線,那就是人的尊嚴。這是神聖不可侵犯的。但這並不意味着我們可以避開死亡。”馬斯克:是的,每個人都會死。Döpfner:每個人都會死,但是尊嚴是應該被保護的,即使是在新冠時期。在被感染期間,你是否改變了對病毒的看法?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58db2eff098cbcad9314e7898bec7c35","width":"688","height":"450"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/338869660","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}