Alexander920 personal page - To The Moon

Alexander920

Alexander920

No personal profile

51Follow

26Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2021-09-02

$Sesen Bio, Inc.(SESN)$?

2021-08-24

?

@牛万理性做多中国:黃金再度站上1800，這個價格值的進場嗎？接下來幾個月走勢我的思考

2021-05-27

$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$?

2021-04-22

???

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3568645889733630","uuid":"3568645889733630","gmtCreate":1610903317350,"gmtModify":1610934805094,"name":"Alexander920","pinyin":"alexander920","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1cf8fbd49671b19a4dd7dd167624fc","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":26,"headSize":51,"tweetSize":150,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":2,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.02.26","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.16%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":7,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":812560987,"gmtCreate":1630594834649,"gmtModify":1676530352349,"author":{"id":"3568645889733630","authorId":"3568645889733630","name":"Alexander920","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1cf8fbd49671b19a4dd7dd167624fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568645889733630","idStr":"3568645889733630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SESN\">$Sesen Bio, Inc.(SESN)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SESN\">$Sesen Bio, Inc.(SESN)$</a>?","text":"$Sesen Bio, Inc.(SESN)$?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/812560987","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834566558,"gmtCreate":1629814015974,"gmtModify":1676530140067,"author":{"id":"3568645889733630","authorId":"3568645889733630","name":"Alexander920","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1cf8fbd49671b19a4dd7dd167624fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568645889733630","idStr":"3568645889733630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834566558","repostId":"834808610","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":834808610,"gmtCreate":1629785992430,"gmtModify":1676530130543,"author":{"id":"3465849506761816","authorId":"3465849506761816","name":"牛万理性做多中国","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80be7e50c1e84549663373f4acbd1518","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3465849506761816","idStr":"3465849506761816"},"themes":[],"title":"黃金再度站上1800，這個價格值的進場嗎？接下來幾個月走勢我的思考","htmlText":"大家好我是牛萬，從上次分享黃金框架和走勢後又過去了兩個月時間，這段時間我一直進行黃金期貨以及期權的操作，馬上進入鮑威爾在年中提到就業強勁的“夏末秋初”時間節點。黃金再度站上1800，不少投機多頭開始押注通脹繼續上行，而加息預期沒有變動，這導致實際利率預期再次下行，黃金隨之反彈。今天再次給大家進行一下系統性熟悉。以及通脹與名義利率間，美聯儲預期管理的判斷。同時說一下未來3個月（到年底），我對黃金走勢的看法。黃金交易的邏輯從頭給小白簡單擼一遍，黃金交易的是什麼？很簡單，宏觀層面是美國的債務和信用。也就是說從大週期緯度上看，美國債務的增加導致信用不斷被損耗，在此不展開，學過經濟學的股友應該對世界貨幣之錨美元有最基本的瞭解，對應的另一端就是黃金。中觀層面是我們作爲交易最爲重要的思考內容，黃金對標的是美元的實際利率，因爲金融市場是前瞻性反應，在此還要加一個“預期”。不少朋友總拿加息降息、通脹通縮直接對標黃金的因果，這是錯誤的。加息降息對標的是名義利率，而不是實際利率，最簡單的公式還是要懂，實際利率=名義利率-通脹。交易中加上預期。實際利率與黃金黃金走勢變化傳導黃金價格是美元實際利率的“中長端”，這是非常重要的一點。我以最去年到今年的走勢進行簡單覆盤便於大家理解，去年8月，美聯儲還在放水，財政也沒有收，可是爲什麼黃金見頂了？原因很簡單，預期變了，你回頭仔細看看鮑威爾在8月說了什麼，就明白美聯儲的預期管理是什麼意思了。簡單說，鮑威爾在疫情後第一次釋放加息taper的思考，那遠端的名義利率預期就已經上去了，這導致實際利率預期遠端快速上升，而通脹在高位沒有動，黃金自然承壓漲不動了。這種傳導從去年一直到今年，隨着美聯儲多次釋放信號，名義利率預期由長端到中端逐步拉昇，到了今年只剩下短端了。所以大趨勢是下跌的是非常合邏輯，至於中間的小波浪反彈，大家別問我，除了3月份的1700到1900的反彈外，其","listText":"大家好我是牛萬，從上次分享黃金框架和走勢後又過去了兩個月時間，這段時間我一直進行黃金期貨以及期權的操作，馬上進入鮑威爾在年中提到就業強勁的“夏末秋初”時間節點。黃金再度站上1800，不少投機多頭開始押注通脹繼續上行，而加息預期沒有變動，這導致實際利率預期再次下行，黃金隨之反彈。今天再次給大家進行一下系統性熟悉。以及通脹與名義利率間，美聯儲預期管理的判斷。同時說一下未來3個月（到年底），我對黃金走勢的看法。黃金交易的邏輯從頭給小白簡單擼一遍，黃金交易的是什麼？很簡單，宏觀層面是美國的債務和信用。也就是說從大週期緯度上看，美國債務的增加導致信用不斷被損耗，在此不展開，學過經濟學的股友應該對世界貨幣之錨美元有最基本的瞭解，對應的另一端就是黃金。中觀層面是我們作爲交易最爲重要的思考內容，黃金對標的是美元的實際利率，因爲金融市場是前瞻性反應，在此還要加一個“預期”。不少朋友總拿加息降息、通脹通縮直接對標黃金的因果，這是錯誤的。加息降息對標的是名義利率，而不是實際利率，最簡單的公式還是要懂，實際利率=名義利率-通脹。交易中加上預期。實際利率與黃金黃金走勢變化傳導黃金價格是美元實際利率的“中長端”，這是非常重要的一點。我以最去年到今年的走勢進行簡單覆盤便於大家理解，去年8月，美聯儲還在放水，財政也沒有收，可是爲什麼黃金見頂了？原因很簡單，預期變了，你回頭仔細看看鮑威爾在8月說了什麼，就明白美聯儲的預期管理是什麼意思了。簡單說，鮑威爾在疫情後第一次釋放加息taper的思考，那遠端的名義利率預期就已經上去了，這導致實際利率預期遠端快速上升，而通脹在高位沒有動，黃金自然承壓漲不動了。這種傳導從去年一直到今年，隨着美聯儲多次釋放信號，名義利率預期由長端到中端逐步拉昇，到了今年只剩下短端了。所以大趨勢是下跌的是非常合邏輯，至於中間的小波浪反彈，大家別問我，除了3月份的1700到1900的反彈外，其","text":"大家好我是牛萬，從上次分享黃金框架和走勢後又過去了兩個月時間，這段時間我一直進行黃金期貨以及期權的操作，馬上進入鮑威爾在年中提到就業強勁的“夏末秋初”時間節點。黃金再度站上1800，不少投機多頭開始押注通脹繼續上行，而加息預期沒有變動，這導致實際利率預期再次下行，黃金隨之反彈。今天再次給大家進行一下系統性熟悉。以及通脹與名義利率間，美聯儲預期管理的判斷。同時說一下未來3個月（到年底），我對黃金走勢的看法。黃金交易的邏輯從頭給小白簡單擼一遍，黃金交易的是什麼？很簡單，宏觀層面是美國的債務和信用。也就是說從大週期緯度上看，美國債務的增加導致信用不斷被損耗，在此不展開，學過經濟學的股友應該對世界貨幣之錨美元有最基本的瞭解，對應的另一端就是黃金。中觀層面是我們作爲交易最爲重要的思考內容，黃金對標的是美元的實際利率，因爲金融市場是前瞻性反應，在此還要加一個“預期”。不少朋友總拿加息降息、通脹通縮直接對標黃金的因果，這是錯誤的。加息降息對標的是名義利率，而不是實際利率，最簡單的公式還是要懂，實際利率=名義利率-通脹。交易中加上預期。實際利率與黃金黃金走勢變化傳導黃金價格是美元實際利率的“中長端”，這是非常重要的一點。我以最去年到今年的走勢進行簡單覆盤便於大家理解，去年8月，美聯儲還在放水，財政也沒有收，可是爲什麼黃金見頂了？原因很簡單，預期變了，你回頭仔細看看鮑威爾在8月說了什麼，就明白美聯儲的預期管理是什麼意思了。簡單說，鮑威爾在疫情後第一次釋放加息taper的思考，那遠端的名義利率預期就已經上去了，這導致實際利率預期遠端快速上升，而通脹在高位沒有動，黃金自然承壓漲不動了。這種傳導從去年一直到今年，隨着美聯儲多次釋放信號，名義利率預期由長端到中端逐步拉昇，到了今年只剩下短端了。所以大趨勢是下跌的是非常合邏輯，至於中間的小波浪反彈，大家別問我，除了3月份的1700到1900的反彈外，其","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e46d321d22e3a14bbb4efc47386881d","width":"688","height":"501"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e76f11bbadee246c94be56ccc4f748fe","width":"688","height":"1223"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d91ec369059c3f4c58dd9a1a3e2dc3e","width":"688","height":"318"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834808610","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135012644,"gmtCreate":1622122301188,"gmtModify":1704179848309,"author":{"id":"3568645889733630","authorId":"3568645889733630","name":"Alexander920","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1cf8fbd49671b19a4dd7dd167624fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568645889733630","idStr":"3568645889733630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>?","text":"$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135012644","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570966519802740","authorId":"3570966519802740","name":"kaka822","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729040ff5fc082505f280741e7848165","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570966519802740","idStr":"3570966519802740"},"content":"up up up","text":"up up up","html":"up up up"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378655893,"gmtCreate":1619029385312,"gmtModify":1704718555007,"author":{"id":"3568645889733630","authorId":"3568645889733630","name":"Alexander920","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1cf8fbd49671b19a4dd7dd167624fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568645889733630","idStr":"3568645889733630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378655893","repostId":"1169511424","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":135012644,"gmtCreate":1622122301188,"gmtModify":1704179848309,"author":{"id":"3568645889733630","authorId":"3568645889733630","name":"Alexander920","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1cf8fbd49671b19a4dd7dd167624fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568645889733630","idStr":"3568645889733630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>?","text":"$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135012644","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570966519802740","authorId":"3570966519802740","name":"kaka822","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729040ff5fc082505f280741e7848165","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570966519802740","idStr":"3570966519802740"},"content":"up up up","text":"up up up","html":"up up up"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834566558,"gmtCreate":1629814015974,"gmtModify":1676530140067,"author":{"id":"3568645889733630","authorId":"3568645889733630","name":"Alexander920","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1cf8fbd49671b19a4dd7dd167624fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568645889733630","idStr":"3568645889733630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834566558","repostId":"834808610","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":834808610,"gmtCreate":1629785992430,"gmtModify":1676530130543,"author":{"id":"3465849506761816","authorId":"3465849506761816","name":"牛万理性做多中国","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80be7e50c1e84549663373f4acbd1518","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3465849506761816","idStr":"3465849506761816"},"themes":[],"title":"黃金再度站上1800，這個價格值的進場嗎？接下來幾個月走勢我的思考","htmlText":"大家好我是牛萬，從上次分享黃金框架和走勢後又過去了兩個月時間，這段時間我一直進行黃金期貨以及期權的操作，馬上進入鮑威爾在年中提到就業強勁的“夏末秋初”時間節點。黃金再度站上1800，不少投機多頭開始押注通脹繼續上行，而加息預期沒有變動，這導致實際利率預期再次下行，黃金隨之反彈。今天再次給大家進行一下系統性熟悉。以及通脹與名義利率間，美聯儲預期管理的判斷。同時說一下未來3個月（到年底），我對黃金走勢的看法。黃金交易的邏輯從頭給小白簡單擼一遍，黃金交易的是什麼？很簡單，宏觀層面是美國的債務和信用。也就是說從大週期緯度上看，美國債務的增加導致信用不斷被損耗，在此不展開，學過經濟學的股友應該對世界貨幣之錨美元有最基本的瞭解，對應的另一端就是黃金。中觀層面是我們作爲交易最爲重要的思考內容，黃金對標的是美元的實際利率，因爲金融市場是前瞻性反應，在此還要加一個“預期”。不少朋友總拿加息降息、通脹通縮直接對標黃金的因果，這是錯誤的。加息降息對標的是名義利率，而不是實際利率，最簡單的公式還是要懂，實際利率=名義利率-通脹。交易中加上預期。實際利率與黃金黃金走勢變化傳導黃金價格是美元實際利率的“中長端”，這是非常重要的一點。我以最去年到今年的走勢進行簡單覆盤便於大家理解，去年8月，美聯儲還在放水，財政也沒有收，可是爲什麼黃金見頂了？原因很簡單，預期變了，你回頭仔細看看鮑威爾在8月說了什麼，就明白美聯儲的預期管理是什麼意思了。簡單說，鮑威爾在疫情後第一次釋放加息taper的思考，那遠端的名義利率預期就已經上去了，這導致實際利率預期遠端快速上升，而通脹在高位沒有動，黃金自然承壓漲不動了。這種傳導從去年一直到今年，隨着美聯儲多次釋放信號，名義利率預期由長端到中端逐步拉昇，到了今年只剩下短端了。所以大趨勢是下跌的是非常合邏輯，至於中間的小波浪反彈，大家別問我，除了3月份的1700到1900的反彈外，其","listText":"大家好我是牛萬，從上次分享黃金框架和走勢後又過去了兩個月時間，這段時間我一直進行黃金期貨以及期權的操作，馬上進入鮑威爾在年中提到就業強勁的“夏末秋初”時間節點。黃金再度站上1800，不少投機多頭開始押注通脹繼續上行，而加息預期沒有變動，這導致實際利率預期再次下行，黃金隨之反彈。今天再次給大家進行一下系統性熟悉。以及通脹與名義利率間，美聯儲預期管理的判斷。同時說一下未來3個月（到年底），我對黃金走勢的看法。黃金交易的邏輯從頭給小白簡單擼一遍，黃金交易的是什麼？很簡單，宏觀層面是美國的債務和信用。也就是說從大週期緯度上看，美國債務的增加導致信用不斷被損耗，在此不展開，學過經濟學的股友應該對世界貨幣之錨美元有最基本的瞭解，對應的另一端就是黃金。中觀層面是我們作爲交易最爲重要的思考內容，黃金對標的是美元的實際利率，因爲金融市場是前瞻性反應，在此還要加一個“預期”。不少朋友總拿加息降息、通脹通縮直接對標黃金的因果，這是錯誤的。加息降息對標的是名義利率，而不是實際利率，最簡單的公式還是要懂，實際利率=名義利率-通脹。交易中加上預期。實際利率與黃金黃金走勢變化傳導黃金價格是美元實際利率的“中長端”，這是非常重要的一點。我以最去年到今年的走勢進行簡單覆盤便於大家理解，去年8月，美聯儲還在放水，財政也沒有收，可是爲什麼黃金見頂了？原因很簡單，預期變了，你回頭仔細看看鮑威爾在8月說了什麼，就明白美聯儲的預期管理是什麼意思了。簡單說，鮑威爾在疫情後第一次釋放加息taper的思考，那遠端的名義利率預期就已經上去了，這導致實際利率預期遠端快速上升，而通脹在高位沒有動，黃金自然承壓漲不動了。這種傳導從去年一直到今年，隨着美聯儲多次釋放信號，名義利率預期由長端到中端逐步拉昇，到了今年只剩下短端了。所以大趨勢是下跌的是非常合邏輯，至於中間的小波浪反彈，大家別問我，除了3月份的1700到1900的反彈外，其","text":"大家好我是牛萬，從上次分享黃金框架和走勢後又過去了兩個月時間，這段時間我一直進行黃金期貨以及期權的操作，馬上進入鮑威爾在年中提到就業強勁的“夏末秋初”時間節點。黃金再度站上1800，不少投機多頭開始押注通脹繼續上行，而加息預期沒有變動，這導致實際利率預期再次下行，黃金隨之反彈。今天再次給大家進行一下系統性熟悉。以及通脹與名義利率間，美聯儲預期管理的判斷。同時說一下未來3個月（到年底），我對黃金走勢的看法。黃金交易的邏輯從頭給小白簡單擼一遍，黃金交易的是什麼？很簡單，宏觀層面是美國的債務和信用。也就是說從大週期緯度上看，美國債務的增加導致信用不斷被損耗，在此不展開，學過經濟學的股友應該對世界貨幣之錨美元有最基本的瞭解，對應的另一端就是黃金。中觀層面是我們作爲交易最爲重要的思考內容，黃金對標的是美元的實際利率，因爲金融市場是前瞻性反應，在此還要加一個“預期”。不少朋友總拿加息降息、通脹通縮直接對標黃金的因果，這是錯誤的。加息降息對標的是名義利率，而不是實際利率，最簡單的公式還是要懂，實際利率=名義利率-通脹。交易中加上預期。實際利率與黃金黃金走勢變化傳導黃金價格是美元實際利率的“中長端”，這是非常重要的一點。我以最去年到今年的走勢進行簡單覆盤便於大家理解，去年8月，美聯儲還在放水，財政也沒有收，可是爲什麼黃金見頂了？原因很簡單，預期變了，你回頭仔細看看鮑威爾在8月說了什麼，就明白美聯儲的預期管理是什麼意思了。簡單說，鮑威爾在疫情後第一次釋放加息taper的思考，那遠端的名義利率預期就已經上去了，這導致實際利率預期遠端快速上升，而通脹在高位沒有動，黃金自然承壓漲不動了。這種傳導從去年一直到今年，隨着美聯儲多次釋放信號，名義利率預期由長端到中端逐步拉昇，到了今年只剩下短端了。所以大趨勢是下跌的是非常合邏輯，至於中間的小波浪反彈，大家別問我，除了3月份的1700到1900的反彈外，其","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e46d321d22e3a14bbb4efc47386881d","width":"688","height":"501"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e76f11bbadee246c94be56ccc4f748fe","width":"688","height":"1223"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d91ec369059c3f4c58dd9a1a3e2dc3e","width":"688","height":"318"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834808610","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812560987,"gmtCreate":1630594834649,"gmtModify":1676530352349,"author":{"id":"3568645889733630","authorId":"3568645889733630","name":"Alexander920","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1cf8fbd49671b19a4dd7dd167624fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568645889733630","idStr":"3568645889733630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SESN\">$Sesen Bio, Inc.(SESN)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SESN\">$Sesen Bio, Inc.(SESN)$</a>?","text":"$Sesen Bio, Inc.(SESN)$?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/812560987","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378655893,"gmtCreate":1619029385312,"gmtModify":1704718555007,"author":{"id":"3568645889733630","authorId":"3568645889733630","name":"Alexander920","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1cf8fbd49671b19a4dd7dd167624fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568645889733630","idStr":"3568645889733630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378655893","repostId":"1169511424","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}