东方波澜 personal page - To The Moon

东方波澜

东方波澜

No personal profile

65Follow

1Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2022-05-15

$Sea Ltd(SE)$good stock to buy. A lot of potential

2021-06-10

hi

Tianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity

2021-06-09

hi

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-07

Hi

Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight

2021-06-07

hi

Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight

2021-06-05

hi

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-29

hi

Too many female presidents and too few Liu Qing

2021-05-27

hi

The number of users has exceeded 800 million, surpassing Alibaba, what will Pinduoduo do next?

2021-05-26

hi

Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?

2021-05-25

Hi

Some companies may make a huge profit of 10 billion in the first quarter! How profitable is the vaccine industry?

2021-05-25

hi

What impact will CATL's sodium batteries have on the market?

2021-05-24

hi

The beautiful picture of crazy coin speculation: from a net profit of 100 million to a loss of 13 million!

2021-05-21

hi

Those big factories who are "late" and CEOs who "leave early"

2021-05-18

hi

Different from the previous two times, this round of commodity surge is a bit special

2021-05-17

hi

Angel of the Times: A provider of oral invisible orthodontic solutions, passed the hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3570426589852260","uuid":"3570426589852260","gmtCreate":1607332566485,"gmtModify":1613790551248,"name":"东方波澜","pinyin":"dfbldongfangbolan","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":65,"tweetSize":27,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.01.15","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"60.76%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9020368035,"gmtCreate":1652579821127,"gmtModify":1676535123251,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>good stock to buy. A lot of potential","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>good stock to buy. A lot of potential","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$good stock to buy. A lot of potential","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020368035","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183892143,"gmtCreate":1623319422282,"gmtModify":1704200791528,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183892143","repostId":"1141888036","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141888036","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623319167,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141888036?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 17:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141888036","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"美联储可能在8月具备释放缩减QE信号的就业条件。","content":"<p>Author: Xiang Jingshu/Song Xuetao</p><p><b>In the past two months, the liquidity flood of the US dollar has surpassed inflation, fundamentals and policy, and dominated the trend and style of large asset classes.</b></p><p><b>The excess liquidity originated from the flooding of the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department since March this year.</b>The TGA account is the cash balance or general account of the U.S. Treasury Department, which reflects most of the income and expenditure of the U.S. Treasury Department. When the TGA increases (decreases), it will draw (increase) reserves from the banking system. According to the U.S. post-epidemic stimulus bill, the U.S. Treasury Department raised approximately US $4.3 trillion in 2020. However, due to slow allocation, funds were stranded in TGA, leaving TGA with a balance of US $1.4 trillion in early March.</p><p><b>The pressure of TGA flood discharge before August is still there.</b>On February 1, 2021, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced the TGA reduction plan and began to reduce the balance of TGA accounts. It is planned to reduce to $800 billion by the end of March and $500 billion by the end of June, and finally meet the requirements by the end of July. However, as of June 2, TGA's account balance was still 783.2 billion, and the pressure drop rate was slower than planned.</p><p>Figure 1: TGA account balance (USD billion)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df65ca24c84cce91a145e23362ec58b\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Since March, TGA has dropped by about 680 billion yuan, which is equivalent to providing an additional increase of about 8% on the basis of the current deposit balances of all commercial banks.<b>Fed Overnight Reverse Repurchase (O/N RRP) Usage Surges</b>, the absorption capacity of banks is close to saturation. This will put downward (negative interest rate) pressure on short-term interest rates and related asset prices.</p><p>Figure 2: The scale of overnight reverse repurchase in the United States hits a record high (billion US dollars)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d24e160e8fbc24c1406df5e8d6c1990\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Figure 3: The dollar liquidity premium returns to the extremely low level seen during the epidemic last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0d3421217ea7beb0752370706a58c\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>We judge that the inflection point of liquidity of the US dollar will appear in August this year.</b></p><p><b>First, the flood discharge of the TGA account ends at the end of July, and may turn from a decrease to an increase in August.</b></p><p>The debt limit plan will be a turning point for TGA to release liquidity. According to the estimate of the U.S. Treasury Department in May, when the \"debt ceiling\" exemption expires at the end of July, the general account balance of the Treasury Department will be reduced to approximately $450 billion; After that, with the issuance of debt, it will rise to approximately US $750 billion by the end of September, which means that the issuance of bonds by the Ministry of Finance in August and September will bring about a liquidity contraction of US $300 billion. Only by raising the debt ceiling can the U.S. government continue to borrow, otherwise the Treasury Department can only choose to stop issuing Treasury Bond and continue to use TGA accounts and other limited number of \"special measures\" to keep the government's funding supply. The TGA account balance will continue to decline at this time. Once the relevant measures fail to cover the financing needs of the Treasury Department, it may lead to a technical default of the U.S. government and a downgrade of the U.S. debt rating.</p><p><b>Second, the Federal Reserve may have the employment conditions to release the signal of reducing QE in August.</b></p><p>Regarding the labor market, Powell is worried that \"the epidemic will cause long-term scars on the labor market. So far, we have not experienced that level of trauma.\" Powell believes that it will take some time to gradually recover from the imbalance in the labor market caused by the epidemic. Hence<b>The degree of improvement in the labor market is an important signpost for judging the Fed's actions.</b></p><p><b>In terms of employment, the accelerated recovery of the service industry has significantly boosted employment.</b>U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 559,000 in May, slightly worse than the expected 675,000, but better than the previous value of 266,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8%, better than the expected 5.9% and the previous value of 6.1%. Among them, jobs in leisure and hotel industries, public and private education, medical care and social assistance have increased significantly. The number of new jobs in the private service industry reached 492,000, which was the main driving force for new non-agricultural employment. Among them, the leisure and hotel industries performed well, with 292,000 new jobs. With the resumption of on-site teaching and other school-related activities in some areas, the number of employed people in education has also increased.</p><p>Figure 4: Non-farm employment breakdown in May (thousands)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401439e6e55203269ab83a1ec5e110c4\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and the labor force participation rate was lower. In addition to higher unemployment subsidies, there were also child care and transportation problems.</b>Unemployment subsidies are higher than the average wage of low-income people, hindering the willingness to return to work to a certain extent; The Beige Book of the Federal Reserve shows that since most schools have not yet resumed classes, low-income people and women bear more childcare burdens; At the same time, due to the epidemic, the reduction of some public transportation frequencies has led to a decline in transportation convenience, which is the reason for the decline in labor participation rate.</p><p>In terms of childcare, the resumption of classes for students is advancing: many American schools have advanced to August, and the number of new jobs in public and private schools increased by 103,000 and 41,000 respectively in May, indicating that schools are resuming classes, which is a positive signal. After Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in people aged 12-15, states across the United States started vaccination efforts for teenagers.</p><p>Table 1: Low-income people are most likely to have not returned to the labour market because they have to care for children</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df31823c9d430179ccd80016cacaa34\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: Data are average values from 2015 to 2019. Source: stlouisfed, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Twenty-five states in the past month announced that the pandemic-era unemployment benefit (PUA) of $300 per week would no longer be paid as of June. From July to August, with the withdrawal of unemployment subsidies and the resumption of students' classes, the labor participation rate will gradually improve and the job market will recover significantly. Assuming that non-farm employment will increase by an average of 600,000 people every month in the future, the employment scale in the United States that shrank due to the impact of the epidemic in the early stage will recover to about 75% in September, and will be completely restored in May around the second half of 2022.</p><p>Figure 5: Different assumptions for employment restoration (thousands)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74c2fab118adea0a5ae6e3f23099b70\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: 400,000 is the average level of new non-agricultural jobs since September 2020, corresponding to the neutral forecast; 600,000 is the average level in the first three months of 2021, corresponding to optimistic assumptions; 200,000 is the average level from 2017 to 2019, corresponding to pessimistic forecasts. Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Referring to the experience of 2013, the Federal Reserve may release a signal to reduce QE when employment returns to around 75%, and start to reduce QE as soon as the fourth quarter of this year. The fastest time to release the signal may be at the Jackson Hole meeting in August or the interest rate meeting in September.</b></p><p>Figure 6: With the steady improvement of employment, the Federal Reserve gradually tightens monetary policy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a68b836f28c1332cb0738ff3f3bfbb5\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Third, the vaccination rate will reach 75% in September.</b></p><p><b>Vaccination Progress</b>It directly affects the recovery speed of the labor market (especially the low-end and service industries). St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes that 75% of Americans are vaccinated will be a signal that the new crown crisis is coming to an end and a necessary condition for the Fed to consider tapering its bond purchase program.</p><p>In terms of vaccination, data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 7 showed that 50.9% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, 41.3% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, and 63.8% of the adult population had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine. But vaccinations have been declining over the past few weeks. According to CDC data, the average daily vaccination volume in the United States in the past week was 1.07 million, down one-third from the peak of 3.4 million in April. At this rate,<b>We expect that the United States will achieve 75% universal vaccination in late September and 75% adult vaccination in late July.</b></p><p>Figure 7: Vaccination rate and forecast in COVID-19 vaccine, USA</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac4ad50410de688e76122d9ea44f8c51\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: ourworldindata, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>The pandemic is the biggest politics, and the vaccine is the biggest policy.</b></p><p>When the vaccination is completed, the service industry is accelerated to open up, financial subsidies are withdrawn, and unemployment is significantly improved, the inflection point of fiscal and monetary liquidity will also appear. August is a critical time when the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department bottoms out and the Federal Reserve releases a signal to reduce QE. The inflection points of fiscal and monetary liquidity may resonate.<b>In February of this year, major asset classes have already made a preview of the inflection point of liquidity. In August, high-valued stocks and interest rate-sensitive assets may reproduce their performance in February.</b></p><p>Figure 8: Performance of U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, U.S. dollar, and gold from January to June this year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c69078674f51115227f83a254b24208\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: WIND, TF Securities Research Institute</p>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雪涛宏观笔记</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 17:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Xiang Jingshu/Song Xuetao</p><p><b>In the past two months, the liquidity flood of the US dollar has surpassed inflation, fundamentals and policy, and dominated the trend and style of large asset classes.</b></p><p><b>The excess liquidity originated from the flooding of the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department since March this year.</b>The TGA account is the cash balance or general account of the U.S. Treasury Department, which reflects most of the income and expenditure of the U.S. Treasury Department. When the TGA increases (decreases), it will draw (increase) reserves from the banking system. According to the U.S. post-epidemic stimulus bill, the U.S. Treasury Department raised approximately US $4.3 trillion in 2020. However, due to slow allocation, funds were stranded in TGA, leaving TGA with a balance of US $1.4 trillion in early March.</p><p><b>The pressure of TGA flood discharge before August is still there.</b>On February 1, 2021, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced the TGA reduction plan and began to reduce the balance of TGA accounts. It is planned to reduce to $800 billion by the end of March and $500 billion by the end of June, and finally meet the requirements by the end of July. However, as of June 2, TGA's account balance was still 783.2 billion, and the pressure drop rate was slower than planned.</p><p>Figure 1: TGA account balance (USD billion)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df65ca24c84cce91a145e23362ec58b\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Since March, TGA has dropped by about 680 billion yuan, which is equivalent to providing an additional increase of about 8% on the basis of the current deposit balances of all commercial banks.<b>Fed Overnight Reverse Repurchase (O/N RRP) Usage Surges</b>, the absorption capacity of banks is close to saturation. This will put downward (negative interest rate) pressure on short-term interest rates and related asset prices.</p><p>Figure 2: The scale of overnight reverse repurchase in the United States hits a record high (billion US dollars)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d24e160e8fbc24c1406df5e8d6c1990\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Figure 3: The dollar liquidity premium returns to the extremely low level seen during the epidemic last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0d3421217ea7beb0752370706a58c\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>We judge that the inflection point of liquidity of the US dollar will appear in August this year.</b></p><p><b>First, the flood discharge of the TGA account ends at the end of July, and may turn from a decrease to an increase in August.</b></p><p>The debt limit plan will be a turning point for TGA to release liquidity. According to the estimate of the U.S. Treasury Department in May, when the \"debt ceiling\" exemption expires at the end of July, the general account balance of the Treasury Department will be reduced to approximately $450 billion; After that, with the issuance of debt, it will rise to approximately US $750 billion by the end of September, which means that the issuance of bonds by the Ministry of Finance in August and September will bring about a liquidity contraction of US $300 billion. Only by raising the debt ceiling can the U.S. government continue to borrow, otherwise the Treasury Department can only choose to stop issuing Treasury Bond and continue to use TGA accounts and other limited number of \"special measures\" to keep the government's funding supply. The TGA account balance will continue to decline at this time. Once the relevant measures fail to cover the financing needs of the Treasury Department, it may lead to a technical default of the U.S. government and a downgrade of the U.S. debt rating.</p><p><b>Second, the Federal Reserve may have the employment conditions to release the signal of reducing QE in August.</b></p><p>Regarding the labor market, Powell is worried that \"the epidemic will cause long-term scars on the labor market. So far, we have not experienced that level of trauma.\" Powell believes that it will take some time to gradually recover from the imbalance in the labor market caused by the epidemic. Hence<b>The degree of improvement in the labor market is an important signpost for judging the Fed's actions.</b></p><p><b>In terms of employment, the accelerated recovery of the service industry has significantly boosted employment.</b>U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 559,000 in May, slightly worse than the expected 675,000, but better than the previous value of 266,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8%, better than the expected 5.9% and the previous value of 6.1%. Among them, jobs in leisure and hotel industries, public and private education, medical care and social assistance have increased significantly. The number of new jobs in the private service industry reached 492,000, which was the main driving force for new non-agricultural employment. Among them, the leisure and hotel industries performed well, with 292,000 new jobs. With the resumption of on-site teaching and other school-related activities in some areas, the number of employed people in education has also increased.</p><p>Figure 4: Non-farm employment breakdown in May (thousands)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401439e6e55203269ab83a1ec5e110c4\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and the labor force participation rate was lower. In addition to higher unemployment subsidies, there were also child care and transportation problems.</b>Unemployment subsidies are higher than the average wage of low-income people, hindering the willingness to return to work to a certain extent; The Beige Book of the Federal Reserve shows that since most schools have not yet resumed classes, low-income people and women bear more childcare burdens; At the same time, due to the epidemic, the reduction of some public transportation frequencies has led to a decline in transportation convenience, which is the reason for the decline in labor participation rate.</p><p>In terms of childcare, the resumption of classes for students is advancing: many American schools have advanced to August, and the number of new jobs in public and private schools increased by 103,000 and 41,000 respectively in May, indicating that schools are resuming classes, which is a positive signal. After Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in people aged 12-15, states across the United States started vaccination efforts for teenagers.</p><p>Table 1: Low-income people are most likely to have not returned to the labour market because they have to care for children</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df31823c9d430179ccd80016cacaa34\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: Data are average values from 2015 to 2019. Source: stlouisfed, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Twenty-five states in the past month announced that the pandemic-era unemployment benefit (PUA) of $300 per week would no longer be paid as of June. From July to August, with the withdrawal of unemployment subsidies and the resumption of students' classes, the labor participation rate will gradually improve and the job market will recover significantly. Assuming that non-farm employment will increase by an average of 600,000 people every month in the future, the employment scale in the United States that shrank due to the impact of the epidemic in the early stage will recover to about 75% in September, and will be completely restored in May around the second half of 2022.</p><p>Figure 5: Different assumptions for employment restoration (thousands)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74c2fab118adea0a5ae6e3f23099b70\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: 400,000 is the average level of new non-agricultural jobs since September 2020, corresponding to the neutral forecast; 600,000 is the average level in the first three months of 2021, corresponding to optimistic assumptions; 200,000 is the average level from 2017 to 2019, corresponding to pessimistic forecasts. Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Referring to the experience of 2013, the Federal Reserve may release a signal to reduce QE when employment returns to around 75%, and start to reduce QE as soon as the fourth quarter of this year. The fastest time to release the signal may be at the Jackson Hole meeting in August or the interest rate meeting in September.</b></p><p>Figure 6: With the steady improvement of employment, the Federal Reserve gradually tightens monetary policy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a68b836f28c1332cb0738ff3f3bfbb5\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Third, the vaccination rate will reach 75% in September.</b></p><p><b>Vaccination Progress</b>It directly affects the recovery speed of the labor market (especially the low-end and service industries). St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes that 75% of Americans are vaccinated will be a signal that the new crown crisis is coming to an end and a necessary condition for the Fed to consider tapering its bond purchase program.</p><p>In terms of vaccination, data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 7 showed that 50.9% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, 41.3% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, and 63.8% of the adult population had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine. But vaccinations have been declining over the past few weeks. According to CDC data, the average daily vaccination volume in the United States in the past week was 1.07 million, down one-third from the peak of 3.4 million in April. At this rate,<b>We expect that the United States will achieve 75% universal vaccination in late September and 75% adult vaccination in late July.</b></p><p>Figure 7: Vaccination rate and forecast in COVID-19 vaccine, USA</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac4ad50410de688e76122d9ea44f8c51\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: ourworldindata, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>The pandemic is the biggest politics, and the vaccine is the biggest policy.</b></p><p>When the vaccination is completed, the service industry is accelerated to open up, financial subsidies are withdrawn, and unemployment is significantly improved, the inflection point of fiscal and monetary liquidity will also appear. August is a critical time when the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department bottoms out and the Federal Reserve releases a signal to reduce QE. The inflection points of fiscal and monetary liquidity may resonate.<b>In February of this year, major asset classes have already made a preview of the inflection point of liquidity. In August, high-valued stocks and interest rate-sensitive assets may reproduce their performance in February.</b></p><p>Figure 8: Performance of U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, U.S. dollar, and gold from January to June this year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c69078674f51115227f83a254b24208\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: WIND, TF Securities Research Institute</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492175.html\">雪涛宏观笔记</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4eb38b95a6b8cf963d8108ff90eb2e3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492175.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141888036","content_text":"作者：向静姝/宋雪涛\n过去2个月，美元的流动性泛滥超越了通胀、基本面和政策，主导了大类资产的走势和风格。\n过剩的流动性起源于今年3月以来美国财政部TGA账户的泄洪。TGA账户是美国财政部的现金结余或财政部一般账户，反映美国财政部大部分收入及支出。当TGA增加(减少)时，其将从银行系统中吸取(增加)储备。根据美国疫后刺激法案，2020年美国财政部融资了约4.3万亿美元，但是由于拨出缓慢，资金滞留在TGA，使得TGA在3月初存有1.4 万亿美元余额。\n8月前TGA泄洪的压力仍在。2021年2月1日，美国财政部公布TGA缩减计划，开始着手压降TGA账户余额。计划3月底缩减至8000亿美元，6月底缩减至5000亿美元，最终在7月底达到要求。但截止6月2日TGA的账户余额还有7832亿，压降速度低于计划。\n图1：TGA账户余额(十亿美元)\n\n资料来源：FRED，天风证券研究所\n3月至今TGA已压降了大约6800亿，整体相当于向当前所有商业银行存款余额的基础上提供了额外约8%的增量。美联储隔夜逆回购(O/N RRP)用量激增，银行吸纳容量已经接近饱和。这将对短端利率及相关的资产价格带来下行(负利率)压力。\n图2：美国隔夜逆回购规模创历史新高(十亿美元)\n\n资料来源：FRED，天风证券研究所\n图3：美元流动性溢价回到去年疫情期间的极低水平\n\n资料来源：bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n我们判断美元的流动性拐点将出现在今年内8月。\n第一，TGA账户的泄洪在7月底截止，可能在8月由降转升。\n债务限额预案将成为TGA释放流动性的转折点。根据美国财政部5月的估计，7月底 “债务上限”豁免到期时，财政部一般账户余额将降低至大约4500亿美元;之后，随着债务发行，9月末将回升至大约7500亿美元，这意味着8、9月财政部发债将带来3000亿美元的流动性收缩。提高债务上限才能让美国政府继续举债，否则财政部只能选择停止发行国债，继续使用TGA账户和其他有限数量的“特别措施”来保持政府的资金供应。此时TGA账户余额将继续下降。一旦相关措施不能覆盖财政部的融资需要，可能导致美国政府出现技术性违约和美债评级下调。\n第二，美联储可能在8月具备释放缩减QE信号的就业条件。\n对于劳动力市场，鲍威尔担心“疫情会对劳动力市场造成长期的伤疤，到目前为止，我们还没有经历过那种程度的创伤”。疫情导致的劳动力市场的失衡关系，鲍威尔认为还需要一段时间才能逐渐地恢复过来。因此劳动力市场改善程度是判断美联储行动的重要路标。\n就业方面，服务业加速恢复对就业的拉动显著。5月美国非农就业人数增加55.9万人，略逊于预期的67.5万人，但好于前值26.6万人。失业率下降0.3个百分点至5.8%，好于预期的5.9%和前值6.1%。其中休闲和酒店业、公私营教育、医疗保健和社会援助等领域的工作显著增加。私人服务业新增就业达到49.2万人，为新增非农就业的主要动力。其中，休闲和酒店业表现亮眼，新增就业达到29.2万人。而随着部分地区恢复现场教学及其他与学校有关的活动，教育的就业人数也有增加。\n图4：5月非农就业分项(千人)\n\n资料来源：bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n美国非农就业数据低于预期，劳动参与率走低，原因除了失业补贴较高之外，还有托儿、交通问题。失业补贴高于低收入人群平均工资在一定程度上阻碍了复工意愿;美联储褐皮书显示，由于目前多数学校尚未复课，低收入人群和女性承担更多的育儿负担;同时由于疫情导致部分公共交通班次减少带来交通便利程度下降，都是造成劳动参与率下降的原因。\n育儿方面，学生复课正在推进：许多美国学校开学时间提前到8月，5月公立和私人学校新增就业分别上升10.3万和4.1万人，说明学校在复课，这是一个积极的信号。在辉瑞新冠疫苗针对12-15周岁人群的使用得到批准后，全美各州纷纷开启针对青少年的疫苗接种工作。\n表1：低收入人群最有可能因为要照顾孩子而尚未回到劳动力市场\n\n注：数据为2015年至2019年的平均值。资料来源：stlouisfed，天风证券研究所\n过去一个月有25个州宣布疫情时期每周300美元的失业津贴(PUA)将自6月起不再发放。7-8月，伴随失业补贴退出、学生复课，劳动参与率将逐渐改善，就业市场将显著恢复。假设非农就业未来每个月平均新增60万人，美国前期受疫情冲击而萎缩的就业规模，将在9月恢复至75%左右，并于2022年下半年前后5月完全修复。\n图5：就业修复的不同假设(千人)\n\n注: 40万是2020年9月以来非农新增就业的均值水平，对应中性预测;60万是2021年前3个月的均值水平，对应乐观假设;20万是2017-2019年的均值水平，对应悲观预测。资料来源：FRED，天风证券研究所\n参照2013年的经验，美联储可能在就业恢复到75%附近时释放缩减QE信号，并最快在今年4季度开始缩减QE。释放信号的时间最快可能是在8月的Jackson Hole会议或9月的议息会议。\n图6：伴随就业稳固改善，美联储逐步收紧货币政策\n\n资料来源：bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n第三，疫苗接种率将在9月达到75%。\n疫苗接种进度直接影响劳动力市场(特别是低端、服务业)修复速度。圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard认为75%的美国人接种疫苗将是新冠危机即将结束的信号，也是美联储考虑缩减购债计划的必要条件。\n疫苗接种方面，美国疾病控制和预防中心(CDC)6月7日公布的数据显示，美国至少接种一剂新冠肺炎疫苗的人口比例为50.9%，美国完全接种新冠肺炎疫苗的人口比例为41.3%，至少接种一剂新冠肺炎疫苗的成人人口比例为63.8%。但过去数周疫苗接种量在下降。根据CDC数据，在过去一周美国平均每日接种量为107万，较4月的峰值340万下降了三分之一。按照此速度，我们预计美国将在9月下旬达成75%全民接种，7月下旬完成75%成人接种。\n图7：美国新冠疫苗接种率及预测\n\n资料来源：ourworldindata，天风证券研究所\n疫情是最大的政治，疫苗是最大的政策。\n当疫苗接种完成、服务业加速开放、财政补贴退出、失业显著改善的信号出现时，财政和货币的流动性拐点也将随之出现。8月是美国财政部TGA账户见底、美联储释放缩减QE信号的关键时点，财政和货币的流动性拐点可能出现共振。今年2月，大类资产已经对流动性拐点做过一次预演，8月高估值股票和利率敏感型资产可能重现2月时的表现。\n图8：今年1-6月美股、美债、美元、黄金表现\n\n资料来源：WIND，天风证券研究所","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180756857,"gmtCreate":1623228644979,"gmtModify":1704198801517,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180756857","repostId":"1151884705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114832795,"gmtCreate":1623064241017,"gmtModify":1704195289168,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114832795","repostId":"1199907200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199907200","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623063101,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199907200?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 18:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199907200","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示，他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。","content":"<p>Amazon founder Bezos said he himself and his brother will participate in Blue Origin's spaceflight scheduled for July.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-07 18:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon founder Bezos said he himself and his brother will participate in Blue Origin's spaceflight scheduled for July.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5c24ebb3777a08add85d8b2a6ba661e","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199907200","content_text":"亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示，他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114832238,"gmtCreate":1623064228124,"gmtModify":1704195288839,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114832238","repostId":"1199907200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199907200","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623063101,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199907200?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 18:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199907200","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示，他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。","content":"<p>Amazon founder Bezos said he himself and his brother will participate in Blue Origin's spaceflight scheduled for July.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-07 18:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon founder Bezos said he himself and his brother will participate in Blue Origin's spaceflight scheduled for July.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5c24ebb3777a08add85d8b2a6ba661e","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199907200","content_text":"亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示，他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112491026,"gmtCreate":1622897579565,"gmtModify":1704193101519,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112491026","repostId":"2141400426","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137929722,"gmtCreate":1622287418466,"gmtModify":1704182718655,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137929722","repostId":"1140647879","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140647879","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622254470,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140647879?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-29 10:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Too many female presidents and too few Liu Qing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140647879","media":"投中网","summary":"上一代独角兽的IPO反复传出又反复辟谣，柳青将带领它往哪儿走？2015年4月，柳青和冯唐在一档对话节目中如是说。说这话时，她加入滴滴10个月，title从首席运营官，到了总裁。柳青出生于北京，后来出国留学，在香港工作12年。镜头里的柳青米白色礼服、脸较前几年略微清瘦一点。","content":"<p><b>This is also a \"face\" of Didi: an international and negotiating representative who can rush to the front line when financing. The IPO of the previous generation of unicorns has been repeatedly rumored and rumored. Where will Liu Qing lead it?</b></p><p>\"Beijing is a place that defines me,\" Liu Qing and Feng Tang said in a conversation program in April 2015. When she said this, she joined Didi for 10 months, and her title went from chief operating officer to president.</p><p>Defining the word is somewhat subtle. Liu Qing was born in Beijing, then went abroad to study and worked in Hong Kong for 12 years. Back in this city, she left the world-renowned investment bank and joined the fledgling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>。 \"Everything starts from scratch,\" Liu Qing said.</p><p>Liu Qing's off-white dress and face in the camera are slightly thinner than those in previous years. She is a standard oriental face. When she has a good chat with Feng Tang, she will carelessly pull the lines into a smiling face. But when it comes to \"definition\", her expression is stable, and she will raise her chin with her hands, so the information she comes out is not very clear. She is also a \"face\" of Didi: an international and negotiating representative, who can rush to the front line when financing.</p><p>But this is only a career function. What kind of person is the owner of this face? What is she choosing? Pursue what?</p><p>In an interview in 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CG\">Carlyle</a>David Rubenstein, chairman of Investment, also expressed his doubts. He went from investment analyst to managing director in Asia with an annual salary of tens of millions-it is said that at that time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The youngest managing director, this should be a high-level period of Liu Qing's life, why did he choose to leave?</p><p>2021 is Liu Qing's seventh year at Didi. Now, everyone knows that she is the president of Didi side by side with founder Cheng Wei, and she has been awarded by the Financial Times, Time, Forbes and other well-known media as \"one of the few Chinese women who attract worldwide attention\" and a global young leader.</p><p>These are the public praises she hasn't seen in 12 years at Goldman Sachs. When she was in investment banking, more people were curious about her-\"The daughter of Lenovo founder Liu Chuanzhi was originally in our company\". What cases did Liu Qing do at Goldman Sachs? Public reports rarely mention it. People with a heart only need to search a little. Whether it is Chinese or English reports, all about Liu Qing are concentrated after she went to Didi in 2014.</p><p>Liu Qing is a compound existence to Didi, or in other words, Liu Qing has become more and more \"solid\" in Didi-a kind of \"compound\" that is rare among the same type of female entrepreneurs. She became an operating officer when she came out of the investment bank, became a \"trust officer\" when public opinion was in crisis, and then became a talent officer when she opened up new markets.</p><p>\"I no longer have to prove my worth,\" Liu Qing told Feng Tang, who was born in the same city.</p><p><b>Investors should change careers \"early\"</b></p><p>The news of Didi's previous generation unicorn's IPO this summer has been repeatedly spread and rumored. Where will Liu Qing lead it? Regarding the future, we have to go back and start from the beginning.</p><p>After joining Didi, at least three iconic events were attributed to Liu Qing's achievements by the media:</p><p>1. Large-scale financing: Just half a year after joining, it helped to win \"the largest financing of 700 million US dollars for unlisted companies at that time\"; Subsequently, Didi's financing ability continued to be strengthened. For example, in 2016, two rounds of financing totaled USD 5.5 billion-a new record for industry financing. The new financing party is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFC\">China Life Insurance</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>And other well-known companies.</p><p>2. Merge with Kuai</p><p>3. Merger with Uber China</p><p>Financing and mergers and acquisitions, or Liu Qing's repeated work in investment banking, has maximized its value in Didi: super financing ability-exactly what this newly established Internet company needs to enter a crazy money-burning war in the future.</p><p>$5.5 billion may be just one of the good cases for an investment bank with assets under management of more than $2 trillion, but it is a life-and-death fund for a startup company.</p><p>How important was timely and large-scale financing to mobility companies at the time? Liu Qin, the founding partner of Wuyuan Capital who once invested in Yidao Travel, expressed this in a conversation with \"Latepost\" in 2020:</p><p>\"We invested easily in 2012, when Didi had not yet been established. We never thought that a company could raise 15-20 billion dollars. The scale of funds quickly destroyed the first-Mover advantage of First Mover and washed away your cognitive advantage as a classic VC. Without this set of great rule-changing things from Didi Kuai, Easy will be a big platform.\"</p><p>In other words, because of the continuous large-scale financing, Didi was able to survive the money-burning war in the travel market, merged with Kuaidi and Uber China, and became the biggest winner in the travel market. In this process, Liu Qing played an indispensable role.</p><p>Looking back now, it was a prime time when Liu Qing chose to join an Internet company. In 2010, China's Internet gradually shifted from PC to mobile Internet, and most companies are in the early stage or at a critical stage of development.</p><p>When Liu Qing joined Didi, the company was valued at $500 million. In 2021, a number of media reported that Didi, which plans to IPO, is valued at at least US $100 billion. In the seven years since Liu Qing joined, Didi's valuation has increased by 199 times.</p><p>Zhou Shouzi, who went to the company from an investment institution one year later than Liu Qing, joined Xiaomi in 2015 with a company valuation of US $45 billion, and its market value on the first day of listing in 2018 was US $47.9 billion. If calculated on a weekly basis when he resigned-Xiaomi's market value was around US $84 billion-in his six years in office, his market value increased by 80%, less than doubled.</p><p>In essence, Didi and Xiaomi cannot be compared. But if it is only regarded as a timing difference in personal choice, it may be a coincidence, but at that time, joining Didi was indeed a good choice for Liu Qing. If she stayed at Goldman Sachs, she would not be able to participate in the high-speed and efficient Internet competition and development process.</p><p>When Liu Qing was still at Goldman Sachs, he tried to invest in Didi three times and failed three times. One of the most widely circulated reasons is the issue of efficiency. Goldman Sachs, an investment bank with a history of hundreds of years, is rigorous and requires multiple processes to repeatedly confirm investment targets before making decisions. But at that time, well-known VCs who wanted to give Didi money were all lined up, and there was no shortage of Goldman Sachs.</p><p><b>\"Self-cultivation\" to female entrepreneurs</b></p><p>In 2016, the Financial Times described Liu Qing as a friendly and English-proficient representative of Didi the friendly, English-speaking face of Didi. This year, Liu Qing rarely appeared in media interviews due to breast cancer treatment, and did not attend the merger with Uber China business. Many media have some sort of regret for this \"absence\".</p><p>Liu Qingzhi is a compound existence to Didi. During the period of Didi's rapid development, there is her super financing ability and business integration ability behind it. At the same time, she is also a \"face\" of Didi. This face is an international and negotiating representative, and can rush to the front line when financing. Especially in 2015, by investing in travel companies such as Lyft in the United States and Grab in Southeast Asia, Didi started its international business. Liu Qingzao is a business card for the world to know Didi.</p><p>The identity of a female entrepreneur, her later victory over breast cancer, and the multiple identities of a single mother made Liu Qing's role more diversified. And this kind of diversification, for Didi, is at least a bonus point in communication.</p><p>In 2016, the Financial Times named her \"Woman of the Year\". At the same time, former British Prime Minister theresa may, former Brazilian President dilma rousseff, Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and other women were selected. At the same time, she was also selected into the list of \"Top 50 Most Influential Mothers in the World\" published by the American website of Working Mothers. In 2017, Liu Qing was selected into Time magazine's Global Influential 100 List, and she was also the only Asian female entrepreneur on the list.</p><p>The influential praise given to executives from the outside world is always positive in the publicity of a company. This is the uniqueness of a startup company with female executives. Looking at startups in China or around the world, this uniqueness is also scarce. Undoubtedly, Liu Qing also defined Didi.</p><p>Of course, Didi also shaped Liu Qing. In the early days, she was Liu Qing with strong financing ability and business operation. Later, with the development of Didi, her role and work content also changed.</p><p>In 2018, due to the hitchhiking safety incident, Didi entered a period of safety rectification. Uber went public in 2019, and the global travel market entered a new stage. Market competition is no longer the key. Business capabilities, business security and stability are the most important indicators. That is to say, there is no need to \"fight\" anymore, and the goal is to \"become stronger and bigger\".</p><p>Compared with Chengwei, Liu Qing assumed the role of \"trust officer\" at this stage. She constantly appears in front of the public-any international and domestic media interview, conference, summit-and constantly expounds Didi's bitter experience, improves safety and experience.</p><p>After three years of precipitation, Didi's business development began to develop radically again-the new brand \"Hua Xiaozhu\" was officially launched in 2020, and Didi announced its entry into South Africa in 2021. This time, Liu Qing's role is different again. She also serves as the chief talent officer and is responsible for the company's talent development plan. \"Chinese Entrepreneur\" said that rapidly growing new businesses and continuously expanding overseas markets require talent investment to discover, stimulate and cultivate talents, and this will be one of Liu Qing's main tasks in 2021.</p><p>You know, Liang Rubo, who just succeeded Zhang Yiming as CEO of ByteDance, works in human resources. In the year when Liang Rubo was the head of human resources, the number of ByteDance employees rose from 60,000 to 100,000-far exceeding Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Wait for established big Internet companies. And 2020 is also a year of crazy expansion for ByteDance.</p><p>In other words, this is another new role of 43-year-old Liu Qing's entrepreneur \"self-cultivation\". For Liu Qing, running a company in different positions and roles must be exciting. This was actually what she said herself.</p><p>In 2014, Liu Qing, who had no management and operation experience at Goldman Sachs, took over the position of COO (Chief Operating Officer), instead of CFO, a common position where investors turned to enterprises.</p><p>\"Although I don't have the experience of managing thousands of people, I have handled many businesses and met many entrepreneurs. Building a suitable organization may be in the genes of our generation.\" Don't forget, Liu Qing is also a \"second generation enterprise\" born in Beijing. He has lived in a family with a complete management evaluation system even for housework since childhood.</p><p>However, Didi has not yet been listed, and Liu Qing still needs to work hard. Moreover, after listing, there are challenges after listing-referring to the development of Uber after listing, we know that this matter is not easy. But for Liu Qing, no matter what Didi's development is, after the IPO, her entrepreneurial career has been regarded as a perfect \"resume\". She really doesn't want to be the president anymore. She can still go back to her old job-an investor. Presumably, this time she will be more popular with LPs than when she was at Goldman Sachs in 12 years.</p>","source":"tzw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Too many female presidents and too few Liu Qing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToo many female presidents and too few Liu Qing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投中网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-29 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This is also a \"face\" of Didi: an international and negotiating representative who can rush to the front line when financing. The IPO of the previous generation of unicorns has been repeatedly rumored and rumored. Where will Liu Qing lead it?</b></p><p>\"Beijing is a place that defines me,\" Liu Qing and Feng Tang said in a conversation program in April 2015. When she said this, she joined Didi for 10 months, and her title went from chief operating officer to president.</p><p>Defining the word is somewhat subtle. Liu Qing was born in Beijing, then went abroad to study and worked in Hong Kong for 12 years. Back in this city, she left the world-renowned investment bank and joined the fledgling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>。 \"Everything starts from scratch,\" Liu Qing said.</p><p>Liu Qing's off-white dress and face in the camera are slightly thinner than those in previous years. She is a standard oriental face. When she has a good chat with Feng Tang, she will carelessly pull the lines into a smiling face. But when it comes to \"definition\", her expression is stable, and she will raise her chin with her hands, so the information she comes out is not very clear. She is also a \"face\" of Didi: an international and negotiating representative, who can rush to the front line when financing.</p><p>But this is only a career function. What kind of person is the owner of this face? What is she choosing? Pursue what?</p><p>In an interview in 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CG\">Carlyle</a>David Rubenstein, chairman of Investment, also expressed his doubts. He went from investment analyst to managing director in Asia with an annual salary of tens of millions-it is said that at that time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The youngest managing director, this should be a high-level period of Liu Qing's life, why did he choose to leave?</p><p>2021 is Liu Qing's seventh year at Didi. Now, everyone knows that she is the president of Didi side by side with founder Cheng Wei, and she has been awarded by the Financial Times, Time, Forbes and other well-known media as \"one of the few Chinese women who attract worldwide attention\" and a global young leader.</p><p>These are the public praises she hasn't seen in 12 years at Goldman Sachs. When she was in investment banking, more people were curious about her-\"The daughter of Lenovo founder Liu Chuanzhi was originally in our company\". What cases did Liu Qing do at Goldman Sachs? Public reports rarely mention it. People with a heart only need to search a little. Whether it is Chinese or English reports, all about Liu Qing are concentrated after she went to Didi in 2014.</p><p>Liu Qing is a compound existence to Didi, or in other words, Liu Qing has become more and more \"solid\" in Didi-a kind of \"compound\" that is rare among the same type of female entrepreneurs. She became an operating officer when she came out of the investment bank, became a \"trust officer\" when public opinion was in crisis, and then became a talent officer when she opened up new markets.</p><p>\"I no longer have to prove my worth,\" Liu Qing told Feng Tang, who was born in the same city.</p><p><b>Investors should change careers \"early\"</b></p><p>The news of Didi's previous generation unicorn's IPO this summer has been repeatedly spread and rumored. Where will Liu Qing lead it? Regarding the future, we have to go back and start from the beginning.</p><p>After joining Didi, at least three iconic events were attributed to Liu Qing's achievements by the media:</p><p>1. Large-scale financing: Just half a year after joining, it helped to win \"the largest financing of 700 million US dollars for unlisted companies at that time\"; Subsequently, Didi's financing ability continued to be strengthened. For example, in 2016, two rounds of financing totaled USD 5.5 billion-a new record for industry financing. The new financing party is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFC\">China Life Insurance</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>And other well-known companies.</p><p>2. Merge with Kuai</p><p>3. Merger with Uber China</p><p>Financing and mergers and acquisitions, or Liu Qing's repeated work in investment banking, has maximized its value in Didi: super financing ability-exactly what this newly established Internet company needs to enter a crazy money-burning war in the future.</p><p>$5.5 billion may be just one of the good cases for an investment bank with assets under management of more than $2 trillion, but it is a life-and-death fund for a startup company.</p><p>How important was timely and large-scale financing to mobility companies at the time? Liu Qin, the founding partner of Wuyuan Capital who once invested in Yidao Travel, expressed this in a conversation with \"Latepost\" in 2020:</p><p>\"We invested easily in 2012, when Didi had not yet been established. We never thought that a company could raise 15-20 billion dollars. The scale of funds quickly destroyed the first-Mover advantage of First Mover and washed away your cognitive advantage as a classic VC. Without this set of great rule-changing things from Didi Kuai, Easy will be a big platform.\"</p><p>In other words, because of the continuous large-scale financing, Didi was able to survive the money-burning war in the travel market, merged with Kuaidi and Uber China, and became the biggest winner in the travel market. In this process, Liu Qing played an indispensable role.</p><p>Looking back now, it was a prime time when Liu Qing chose to join an Internet company. In 2010, China's Internet gradually shifted from PC to mobile Internet, and most companies are in the early stage or at a critical stage of development.</p><p>When Liu Qing joined Didi, the company was valued at $500 million. In 2021, a number of media reported that Didi, which plans to IPO, is valued at at least US $100 billion. In the seven years since Liu Qing joined, Didi's valuation has increased by 199 times.</p><p>Zhou Shouzi, who went to the company from an investment institution one year later than Liu Qing, joined Xiaomi in 2015 with a company valuation of US $45 billion, and its market value on the first day of listing in 2018 was US $47.9 billion. If calculated on a weekly basis when he resigned-Xiaomi's market value was around US $84 billion-in his six years in office, his market value increased by 80%, less than doubled.</p><p>In essence, Didi and Xiaomi cannot be compared. But if it is only regarded as a timing difference in personal choice, it may be a coincidence, but at that time, joining Didi was indeed a good choice for Liu Qing. If she stayed at Goldman Sachs, she would not be able to participate in the high-speed and efficient Internet competition and development process.</p><p>When Liu Qing was still at Goldman Sachs, he tried to invest in Didi three times and failed three times. One of the most widely circulated reasons is the issue of efficiency. Goldman Sachs, an investment bank with a history of hundreds of years, is rigorous and requires multiple processes to repeatedly confirm investment targets before making decisions. But at that time, well-known VCs who wanted to give Didi money were all lined up, and there was no shortage of Goldman Sachs.</p><p><b>\"Self-cultivation\" to female entrepreneurs</b></p><p>In 2016, the Financial Times described Liu Qing as a friendly and English-proficient representative of Didi the friendly, English-speaking face of Didi. This year, Liu Qing rarely appeared in media interviews due to breast cancer treatment, and did not attend the merger with Uber China business. Many media have some sort of regret for this \"absence\".</p><p>Liu Qingzhi is a compound existence to Didi. During the period of Didi's rapid development, there is her super financing ability and business integration ability behind it. At the same time, she is also a \"face\" of Didi. This face is an international and negotiating representative, and can rush to the front line when financing. Especially in 2015, by investing in travel companies such as Lyft in the United States and Grab in Southeast Asia, Didi started its international business. Liu Qingzao is a business card for the world to know Didi.</p><p>The identity of a female entrepreneur, her later victory over breast cancer, and the multiple identities of a single mother made Liu Qing's role more diversified. And this kind of diversification, for Didi, is at least a bonus point in communication.</p><p>In 2016, the Financial Times named her \"Woman of the Year\". At the same time, former British Prime Minister theresa may, former Brazilian President dilma rousseff, Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and other women were selected. At the same time, she was also selected into the list of \"Top 50 Most Influential Mothers in the World\" published by the American website of Working Mothers. In 2017, Liu Qing was selected into Time magazine's Global Influential 100 List, and she was also the only Asian female entrepreneur on the list.</p><p>The influential praise given to executives from the outside world is always positive in the publicity of a company. This is the uniqueness of a startup company with female executives. Looking at startups in China or around the world, this uniqueness is also scarce. Undoubtedly, Liu Qing also defined Didi.</p><p>Of course, Didi also shaped Liu Qing. In the early days, she was Liu Qing with strong financing ability and business operation. Later, with the development of Didi, her role and work content also changed.</p><p>In 2018, due to the hitchhiking safety incident, Didi entered a period of safety rectification. Uber went public in 2019, and the global travel market entered a new stage. Market competition is no longer the key. Business capabilities, business security and stability are the most important indicators. That is to say, there is no need to \"fight\" anymore, and the goal is to \"become stronger and bigger\".</p><p>Compared with Chengwei, Liu Qing assumed the role of \"trust officer\" at this stage. She constantly appears in front of the public-any international and domestic media interview, conference, summit-and constantly expounds Didi's bitter experience, improves safety and experience.</p><p>After three years of precipitation, Didi's business development began to develop radically again-the new brand \"Hua Xiaozhu\" was officially launched in 2020, and Didi announced its entry into South Africa in 2021. This time, Liu Qing's role is different again. She also serves as the chief talent officer and is responsible for the company's talent development plan. \"Chinese Entrepreneur\" said that rapidly growing new businesses and continuously expanding overseas markets require talent investment to discover, stimulate and cultivate talents, and this will be one of Liu Qing's main tasks in 2021.</p><p>You know, Liang Rubo, who just succeeded Zhang Yiming as CEO of ByteDance, works in human resources. In the year when Liang Rubo was the head of human resources, the number of ByteDance employees rose from 60,000 to 100,000-far exceeding Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Wait for established big Internet companies. And 2020 is also a year of crazy expansion for ByteDance.</p><p>In other words, this is another new role of 43-year-old Liu Qing's entrepreneur \"self-cultivation\". For Liu Qing, running a company in different positions and roles must be exciting. This was actually what she said herself.</p><p>In 2014, Liu Qing, who had no management and operation experience at Goldman Sachs, took over the position of COO (Chief Operating Officer), instead of CFO, a common position where investors turned to enterprises.</p><p>\"Although I don't have the experience of managing thousands of people, I have handled many businesses and met many entrepreneurs. Building a suitable organization may be in the genes of our generation.\" Don't forget, Liu Qing is also a \"second generation enterprise\" born in Beijing. He has lived in a family with a complete management evaluation system even for housework since childhood.</p><p>However, Didi has not yet been listed, and Liu Qing still needs to work hard. Moreover, after listing, there are challenges after listing-referring to the development of Uber after listing, we know that this matter is not easy. But for Liu Qing, no matter what Didi's development is, after the IPO, her entrepreneurial career has been regarded as a perfect \"resume\". She really doesn't want to be the president anymore. She can still go back to her old job-an investor. Presumably, this time she will be more popular with LPs than when she was at Goldman Sachs in 12 years.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2Wm03FFIW5q2y8ipRBNfnA\">投中网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7b8e55da7810fe1e4e2b57294d69828","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2Wm03FFIW5q2y8ipRBNfnA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140647879","content_text":"这也是滴滴的一张“脸”：国际化的、谈判的代表，融资时可以冲在一线。上一代独角兽的IPO反复传出又反复辟谣，柳青将带领它往哪儿走？\n“北京是定义我的一个地方。”2015年4月，柳青和冯唐在一档对话节目中如是说。说这话时，她加入滴滴10个月，title从首席运营官，到了总裁。\n定义这个词有些微妙。柳青出生于北京，后来出国留学，在香港工作12年。再回到这个城市，她从全球知名的投行离职，加入刚起步的创业公司。“一切从零开始。”柳青说。\n镜头里的柳青米白色礼服、脸较前几年略微清瘦一点。她算是标准的东方脸，当她和冯唐聊得尽兴了，会大大咧咧地把线条拉成一张笑脸。但谈到“定义”，她表情平稳，还会用手把下巴端起来，端出来的信息就不甚清晰了。她也是滴滴的一张“脸”：国际化的、谈判的代表，融资时可以冲在一线。\n但这仅仅是事业上的功用，这张脸的主人又究竟是怎样一个人？她在选择什么？追求什么？\n2020年的一个访谈里，凯雷投资的董事长David Rubenstein也表达了他的疑惑，从投资分析员一路做到年薪千万的亚洲区董事总经理——据说是当时高盛最年轻的一位董事总经理，这应该是柳青的一个人生高阶时期，为什么会选择离开？\n2021年是柳青在滴滴的第7年。现在，所有人都知道她是与创始人程维并肩的滴滴总裁，是被英国《金融时报》、《时代》、《福布斯》等知名媒体评为的“全球瞩目且为数不多的中国女性企业家”、全球青年领袖等各种嘉奖。\n这些，是她在高盛12年没有出现过的公共褒奖。在投行时，更多人对她的好奇在于——“联想创始人柳传志之女原来在我们公司”。柳青在高盛做了哪些案子？公开报道鲜少提及。有心人只要稍微搜索一下，无论是中文还是英文的报道，关于柳青的，都集中在2014年她去滴滴之后。\n柳青之于滴滴，是复合型的存在，或者换句俗话讲，柳青在滴滴锤炼得越来越“皮实”——一种在同类型女企业家中少见的“复合”，从投行出来一下场就当运营官，舆情危机了当“信任官”，开拓新市场了又去兼任人才官。\n“我不再需要证明自己的价值。”节目里，柳青对同在一个城市出生冯唐说。\n投资人转行要“趁早”\n滴滴这个上一代独角兽今夏IPO的消息反复传出又反复辟谣，柳青将带领它走到哪里？关于未来的问题，我们要先往回走，从头讲起。\n加入滴滴后，至少有三件标示性的事件被媒体归结为柳青的成绩：\n1、大规模的融资：刚加入半年，帮助拿下“当时非上市公司最大一笔7亿美元融资”；随后继续强化了滴滴融资能力，比如2016年年内两轮融资共55亿美元——为行业融资新纪录，新融资方是苹果、中国人寿和蚂蚁集团等知名公司。\n2、与快的合并\n3、与Uber中国合并\n融资和并购，或是柳青在投行时不断重复做的工作，在滴滴她又将之价值发挥最大：超强的融资能力——正是这家刚成立的互联网公司，日后进入疯狂烧钱大战所需要的。\n55亿美元，对一家管理资产规模超过2万亿美元的投行来说，或许只是其中一个规模不错的案子，但对一家创业公司来说，却是生死攸关的资金。\n及时、大规模的融资对当时的出行公司有多重要？曾投资易到出行的五源资本创始合伙人刘芹，2020年在与《晚点Latepost》的对话里这么表达：\n“我们2012年投资易到，当时滴滴还没有成立。我们从没想到一家公司可以融150-200亿美元，资金规模迅速摧毁了First Mover（模式首创者）先发优势，冲垮了你作为一个经典 VC 的认知优势。如果没有滴滴快的这一套巨大改变规则的东西，易到会是大平台。”\n换句话说，因为可以不断地大规模融资，滴滴得以在出行市场的烧钱大战中活下来，与快的、Uber中国合并，成为出行市场里最大的赢家。这个过程里，柳青功不可没。\n现在返回头看，柳青当初选择加入互联网公司时，正是一个黄金时间。2010年中国互联网从PC逐步转向进入移动互联网，大部分公司正处于早期或到了关键的发展阶段。\n柳青加入滴滴时，公司估值5亿美元。2021年多家媒体报道，计划IPO的滴滴估值至少1000亿美元。在柳青加入的这7年里，滴滴的估值增加了199倍。\n比柳青晚一年从投资机构去公司的周受资，2015年加入小米时，公司估值450亿美元，2018年上市首日市值为479亿美元。如果按周受资离职时——小米的市值在840亿美元左右——计算，他在职的6年里，市值增加了80%，不到1倍。\n本质上，滴滴与小米无法拿来对比。但如果仅作为个人选择上的时机差别来看，或许是机缘巧合，但那个时间对柳青来说，加入滴滴确实是不错的选择。如果继续呆在高盛时，她便无缘参与高速、高效的互联网竞争和发展进程。\n柳青还在高盛时，曾三次想投资滴滴，三次失败。其中最广为流传的一个原因是效率问题。高盛这家有上百年历史的投行严谨，需要多重的流程反复确认投资标的才能决策。但那个时间里，想给滴滴钱的知名VC都排着队，不缺高盛一家。\n通往女性企业家的“自我修养”\n2016年，英国《金融时报》如此描述柳青：滴滴友好且精通英语的代表（the friendly, English-speaking face of Didi ）。这一年柳青因乳腺癌治疗，鲜少出现媒体访谈，与Uber中国业务合并时也未出席。多家媒体对于这种“缺席”，多少有惋惜的语气。\n柳青之于滴滴，是复合型的存在。滴滴高速发展的时期，背后有她的超强融资能力以及业务整合能力。与此同时，她也是滴滴的一张“脸”。这张脸是国际化的、谈判的代表，融资时可以冲在一线。特别是2015年通过投资美国Lyft、东南亚Grab等出行公司，滴滴开启国际化业务，柳青早是全球认识滴滴的一张名片。\n女性企业家的身份，后来战胜乳腺癌，以及单身妈妈的多重身份，让柳青的角色更加多元化。而这种多元化，对于滴滴，至少在传播上是加分的。\n2016年，英国《金融时报》将她评为“年度女性”，同期入选的是前英国首相特蕾莎·梅伊、巴西前总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫、印度外长苏什玛·斯瓦拉杰等女性。同时，她也入选了美国《职业母亲》网站发布的“全球50大最具影响力母亲”榜单。2017年，柳青入选《时代》杂志的全球影响力百人榜，也是唯一一位上榜的亚洲女企业家。\n外界给高管的有影响力的褒奖，对一个家公司的宣传总是正面的。这是一家有女性高管的创业公司的独特性，放眼中国、或者全球的创业公司，这种独特性也是稀缺的。无疑，柳青也定义了滴滴。\n当然，滴滴也塑造了柳青。早期她是融资能力、业务运营超强的柳青，后来随着滴滴的发展，她的角色和工作内容也随之变化。\n2018年因顺风车安全事件，滴滴进入安全整治时期。2019年Uber上市，全球出行市场进入了一个新的阶段，市场争夺不再是关键，商业能力、业务安全且稳定是最重要的指标。也就是不需要再“打战”了，公司“做强做大”才是目标。\n比起程维，柳青在这个阶段承担的“信任官”角色。她不断出现在公众面前——任何一个国际的、国内的媒体采访、会议、峰会——不断地阐述，滴滴的痛定思痛、提升安全性、体验性。\n三年沉淀之后，滴滴的业务发展才又开始有激进的发展——2020年正式上线新品牌“花小猪”，2021年滴滴宣布进入南非。这次，柳青的角色又不一样了，她兼任了首席人才官一职，负责公司人才发展计划。《中国企业家》称，快速增长的新业务、持续拓展的海外市场需要有人才投入，发掘、激发和培养人才，而这将是柳青2021年的主要工作之一。\n要知道，刚接任张一鸣担任字节跳动CEO的梁汝波，任职的便是人力资源工作。在梁汝波做人力资源负责人这一年，字节跳动员工人数从6万升到了10万人——远远超过了阿里、腾讯等老牌大互联网公司。而2020年，也是字节跳动疯狂扩张的一年。\n换而言之，这是43岁的柳青的企业家“自我修养”的又一新角色。对柳青来说，在不同岗位、不同角色上经营一家公司，一定都是兴奋的。这话，其实是她自己说的。\n2014年，在高盛没有管理和运营经验的柳青，接过来的滴滴职位是COO（首席运营官），而不是投资人转向企业常见的岗位CFO。\n“尽管我没有管理上千人的经验，但我处理过很多生意、见过很多企业家。建立一个合适的组织，或许就在我们这一代的基因里。”不要忘了，柳青还是一位出生在北京的“企二代”，从小生活在连家务事都有整套管理考评体系的家庭。\n不过，滴滴还未上市，柳青还需努力。而且，上市之后还有上市之后的挑战——参照Uber上市后的发展，便知这件事并不容易。但对于柳青来说，无论滴滴的发展如何，IPO之后，她的企业家生涯已经算得上一份完美“简历”。实在不想做总裁了，她还能做回老本行——投资人，想必，这次会比在高盛12年时受LP欢迎。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132461175,"gmtCreate":1622107752697,"gmtModify":1704179595084,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132461175","repostId":"2138140998","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138140998","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622105065,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138140998?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-27 16:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The number of users has exceeded 800 million, surpassing Alibaba, what will Pinduoduo do next?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138140998","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"财报显示，第一季度拼多多营收221.7亿元，同比增长239%；非通用会计准则下，归属于普通股股东的净亏损为18.903亿元，同比大幅收窄；截至2021年3月31日，拼多多年度活跃买家数达到8.238亿，较上一年同期净增1.957亿。本季度，拼多多营销服务收入为141.1亿元，同比增长157%，创下近一年多以来的新高。所以，拼多多下一步要做什么，用David Liu的话来说，就是要提高用户的粘性。","content":"<p>On the evening of May 26, Pinduoduo released its financial report for the first quarter of 2021. This is also the first financial report after Huang Zheng stepped down as chairman and Chen Lei took over as chairman.</p><p>The financial report shows that Pinduoduo's revenue in the first quarter was 22.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 239%; Under non-GAAP, the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 1.8903 billion yuan, a significant narrowing year-on-year; As of March 31, 2021, the number of annual active buyers in Pinduoduo reached 823.8 million, a net increase of 195.7 million over the same period last year.</p><p>Judging from these core data alone, Pinduoduo's report card seems to be pretty good. However, Pinduoduo's stock price bucked the trend and fell by more than 5% despite the general strength of technology stocks, which makes people wonder: Is Pinduoduo dying? After Huang Zheng steps down, can Chen Lei hold on to Pinduoduo's fundamentals? When the annual active buyers gradually touch the ceiling, where is Pinduoduo's growth point? This issue of Penguin Decoding reveals the secret for you.</p><p><b>Self-operated product sales stimulate revenue surge</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d698512649687888aa0083d9e2a3bb5\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the fourth quarter of last year, Pinduoduo has launched a self-operated model, and the item of \"commodity revenue\" has also been added to its financial report. It is precisely because of this change that Pinduoduo's revenue growth rate has returned to above 100% since last year, and reached 239% in this quarter, setting a new high in the past two years. Since there was no \"commodity revenue\" in the second and third quarters of last year, Pinduoduo's revenue growth rate is expected to maintain rapid growth.</p><p>Different from the previous financial report, Pinduoduo did not announce the annualized GMV, so it is impossible to intuitively see the improvement of Pinduoduo's GMV by the self-operated business. However, in the conference call after the financial report, Cai Majing, vice president of finance of Pinduoduo, said that self-operated business is a channel made by the platform to temporarily meet the needs of consumers when merchants cannot meet the needs of consumers. This business is not Pinduoduo's strategic focus, so the GMV generated is very small for the overall platform.</p><p>Last quarter, Pinduoduo's annualized GMV was 1.67 trillion yuan, which was allocated to approximately 417.5 billion yuan per quarter. This quarter, Pinduoduo's revenue from self-operation was 5.124 billion yuan. It can be seen that this part contributed a lot to the growth of revenue, but it did have a very small impact on the improvement of GMV.</p><p>In addition, if this part is excluded, Pinduoduo's revenue is 17.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.64%, and the growth rate is a new high since the second half of 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13abbd9d6ae21bfd2934ecf3dd120f09\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from Pinduoduo's current revenue structure, commodity sales revenue has become the second largest business, and the largest business is still marketing services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e9c2aeb7995c7e8ab261b486215a95\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This quarter, Pinduoduo's marketing service revenue was 14.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 157%, setting a new high in more than a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2144822e2487bd30e637185daae3a88e\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although transaction service revenue accounts for the smallest proportion of Pinduoduo's revenue structure, the changes in this quarter are worth noting: revenue was 2.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180%. The former hit a record high, and the latter hit a new high in the past two years.</p><p>Some analysts also raised questions about this high growth during the conference call. In this regard, Ma Jing's answer is: first, driven by the growth of sales in the first quarter, and second, driven by the revenue growth of Duoduo's grocery shopping business.</p><p>But this answer did not uncover all the doubts. The fourth quarter of each year, due to the double 11 shopping spree, is the peak sales season of e-commerce platforms every year, and the revenue is significantly higher than other quarters. Pinduoduo is no exception, so the transaction service fee is in the fourth quarter of each year. It should also be the highest, and the first quarter of the following year should decrease month-on-month.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, Pinduoduo's revenue fell by more than 4 billion yuan month-on-month. Theoretically, transaction service fees should also decline month-on-month, but the actual situation is that transaction service fees increased by 660 million yuan month-on-month. Therefore, it is still a question how Pinduoduo did it.</p><p><b>The proportion of marketing expenditure in revenue dropped significantly</b></p><p>Although the self-operated business has driven a surge in revenue, it has also been followed by a surge in revenue costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e64f8819e655e3dfa16c973912565e\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the fourth quarter of last year, Pinduoduo's revenue cost has exceeded 10 billion yuan in one fell swoop, reaching 10.75 billion yuan this quarter, a year-on-year increase of 487%, far exceeding the revenue growth rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a03e45af744fc4bd761a04598c092a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A direct consequence of the surge in revenue costs is the decline in gross profit. In the past few quarters, Pinduoduo's gross profit margin has always remained above 70%, but since the fourth quarter of last year, it has plummeted to 56.58%, and this quarter has further dropped to 51.52%. It is expected that Pinduoduo will gross profit margin for a long time. The profit margin cannot return to a high point.</p><p>In addition, the above picture also makes many people confused: Pinduoduo's gross profit margin is so high, why will it not be profitable for a long time? The answer is: Pinduoduo's marketing expenses remain high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a972a9bd17d86f6a47abfe83b1eb185a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Pinduoduo's marketing expenses have exceeded 14 billion yuan for two consecutive quarters, and the growth rate of 157% has also reached a new high in the past two years, which is inseparable from the fact that Pinduoduo is increasing its support for Duoduomaicai.</p><p>But David Liu, vice president of strategy at Pinduoduo, mentioned in the conference call that the proportion of overall marketing expenses in revenue is declining.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fe586c6f8ba26db5733db3498d5727\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Two years ago, Pinduoduo's marketing expenses exceeded revenue, accounting for more than 100%, but then this data has been greatly improved. In the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, they were only 55.42% and 63.66% respectively..</p><p>This shows that Pinduoduo's marketing efficiency has improved, that is, marketing expenses have been reduced accordingly, which has not affected the growth of revenue. David Liu also said that Duoduo's grocery shopping business better meets the needs of users and expands the company's ability to fulfill contracts. These users also purchase more frequently. In terms of marketing expenditure, the company will also benefit in the long run.</p><p>In addition, the decline in the proportion of marketing expenses has also greatly improved Pinduoduo's profitability. In the first quarter of last year, marketing expenses accounted for 111.55%, so the loss in the same period reached 3.17 billion yuan, while this year it was only 1.89 billion yuan, which narrowed significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Improving user stickiness becomes Pinduoduo's next focus</b></p><p>In the conference call last quarter, David Liu warned: Given the current scale of users in Pinduoduo, I think it is inevitable that the growth rate of users will slow down in the next time. Combined with this quarter's data, unfortunately, it's right.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd1f29dff47a475b5a5244890aecfec\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As of March 31, Pinduoduo's annual active buyers reached 823.8 million, higher than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>811 million was announced not long ago, but it increased by 35.4 million quarter-on-quarter, setting a record low since the second quarter of 2019. So, what Pinduoduo will do next, in David Liu's words, is to improve user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfd024d1766a8c415add428c633cc71\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the past, Pinduoduo would publish the annual consumption data of active buyers in its financial report, but it was not disclosed in this quarter, so we can't intuitively see whether user stickiness has improved.</p><p>However, it can be seen from the many speeches of Pinduoduo executives that there are two ways for Pinduoduo to achieve this goal: one is to attract more brand merchants to settle in and expand categories, and the other is to buy more food. Among them, the latter is particularly important.</p><p>David Liu also revealed the latest progress of Duoduomaicai: At present, Duoduomaicai has carried out business in more than 300 major cities, and with the continuous improvement of local infrastructure, it has also brought the consumer behavior we want.</p><p>However, community group buying is gradually being brought into the scope of supervision. In March of this year, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed penalties on several leading community group buying companies, believing that these companies had behaviors such as \"burning money to grab the market and raising prices after monopoly.\" This status quo may bring some uncertainties to Pinduoduo's future plans.</p>","source":"lsy1580517846866","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The number of users has exceeded 800 million, surpassing Alibaba, what will Pinduoduo do next?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe number of users has exceeded 800 million, surpassing Alibaba, what will Pinduoduo do next?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-27 16:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On the evening of May 26, Pinduoduo released its financial report for the first quarter of 2021. This is also the first financial report after Huang Zheng stepped down as chairman and Chen Lei took over as chairman.</p><p>The financial report shows that Pinduoduo's revenue in the first quarter was 22.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 239%; Under non-GAAP, the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 1.8903 billion yuan, a significant narrowing year-on-year; As of March 31, 2021, the number of annual active buyers in Pinduoduo reached 823.8 million, a net increase of 195.7 million over the same period last year.</p><p>Judging from these core data alone, Pinduoduo's report card seems to be pretty good. However, Pinduoduo's stock price bucked the trend and fell by more than 5% despite the general strength of technology stocks, which makes people wonder: Is Pinduoduo dying? After Huang Zheng steps down, can Chen Lei hold on to Pinduoduo's fundamentals? When the annual active buyers gradually touch the ceiling, where is Pinduoduo's growth point? This issue of Penguin Decoding reveals the secret for you.</p><p><b>Self-operated product sales stimulate revenue surge</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d698512649687888aa0083d9e2a3bb5\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the fourth quarter of last year, Pinduoduo has launched a self-operated model, and the item of \"commodity revenue\" has also been added to its financial report. It is precisely because of this change that Pinduoduo's revenue growth rate has returned to above 100% since last year, and reached 239% in this quarter, setting a new high in the past two years. Since there was no \"commodity revenue\" in the second and third quarters of last year, Pinduoduo's revenue growth rate is expected to maintain rapid growth.</p><p>Different from the previous financial report, Pinduoduo did not announce the annualized GMV, so it is impossible to intuitively see the improvement of Pinduoduo's GMV by the self-operated business. However, in the conference call after the financial report, Cai Majing, vice president of finance of Pinduoduo, said that self-operated business is a channel made by the platform to temporarily meet the needs of consumers when merchants cannot meet the needs of consumers. This business is not Pinduoduo's strategic focus, so the GMV generated is very small for the overall platform.</p><p>Last quarter, Pinduoduo's annualized GMV was 1.67 trillion yuan, which was allocated to approximately 417.5 billion yuan per quarter. This quarter, Pinduoduo's revenue from self-operation was 5.124 billion yuan. It can be seen that this part contributed a lot to the growth of revenue, but it did have a very small impact on the improvement of GMV.</p><p>In addition, if this part is excluded, Pinduoduo's revenue is 17.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.64%, and the growth rate is a new high since the second half of 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13abbd9d6ae21bfd2934ecf3dd120f09\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from Pinduoduo's current revenue structure, commodity sales revenue has become the second largest business, and the largest business is still marketing services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e9c2aeb7995c7e8ab261b486215a95\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This quarter, Pinduoduo's marketing service revenue was 14.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 157%, setting a new high in more than a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2144822e2487bd30e637185daae3a88e\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although transaction service revenue accounts for the smallest proportion of Pinduoduo's revenue structure, the changes in this quarter are worth noting: revenue was 2.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180%. The former hit a record high, and the latter hit a new high in the past two years.</p><p>Some analysts also raised questions about this high growth during the conference call. In this regard, Ma Jing's answer is: first, driven by the growth of sales in the first quarter, and second, driven by the revenue growth of Duoduo's grocery shopping business.</p><p>But this answer did not uncover all the doubts. The fourth quarter of each year, due to the double 11 shopping spree, is the peak sales season of e-commerce platforms every year, and the revenue is significantly higher than other quarters. Pinduoduo is no exception, so the transaction service fee is in the fourth quarter of each year. It should also be the highest, and the first quarter of the following year should decrease month-on-month.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, Pinduoduo's revenue fell by more than 4 billion yuan month-on-month. Theoretically, transaction service fees should also decline month-on-month, but the actual situation is that transaction service fees increased by 660 million yuan month-on-month. Therefore, it is still a question how Pinduoduo did it.</p><p><b>The proportion of marketing expenditure in revenue dropped significantly</b></p><p>Although the self-operated business has driven a surge in revenue, it has also been followed by a surge in revenue costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e64f8819e655e3dfa16c973912565e\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the fourth quarter of last year, Pinduoduo's revenue cost has exceeded 10 billion yuan in one fell swoop, reaching 10.75 billion yuan this quarter, a year-on-year increase of 487%, far exceeding the revenue growth rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a03e45af744fc4bd761a04598c092a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A direct consequence of the surge in revenue costs is the decline in gross profit. In the past few quarters, Pinduoduo's gross profit margin has always remained above 70%, but since the fourth quarter of last year, it has plummeted to 56.58%, and this quarter has further dropped to 51.52%. It is expected that Pinduoduo will gross profit margin for a long time. The profit margin cannot return to a high point.</p><p>In addition, the above picture also makes many people confused: Pinduoduo's gross profit margin is so high, why will it not be profitable for a long time? The answer is: Pinduoduo's marketing expenses remain high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a972a9bd17d86f6a47abfe83b1eb185a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Pinduoduo's marketing expenses have exceeded 14 billion yuan for two consecutive quarters, and the growth rate of 157% has also reached a new high in the past two years, which is inseparable from the fact that Pinduoduo is increasing its support for Duoduomaicai.</p><p>But David Liu, vice president of strategy at Pinduoduo, mentioned in the conference call that the proportion of overall marketing expenses in revenue is declining.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fe586c6f8ba26db5733db3498d5727\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Two years ago, Pinduoduo's marketing expenses exceeded revenue, accounting for more than 100%, but then this data has been greatly improved. In the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, they were only 55.42% and 63.66% respectively..</p><p>This shows that Pinduoduo's marketing efficiency has improved, that is, marketing expenses have been reduced accordingly, which has not affected the growth of revenue. David Liu also said that Duoduo's grocery shopping business better meets the needs of users and expands the company's ability to fulfill contracts. These users also purchase more frequently. In terms of marketing expenditure, the company will also benefit in the long run.</p><p>In addition, the decline in the proportion of marketing expenses has also greatly improved Pinduoduo's profitability. In the first quarter of last year, marketing expenses accounted for 111.55%, so the loss in the same period reached 3.17 billion yuan, while this year it was only 1.89 billion yuan, which narrowed significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Improving user stickiness becomes Pinduoduo's next focus</b></p><p>In the conference call last quarter, David Liu warned: Given the current scale of users in Pinduoduo, I think it is inevitable that the growth rate of users will slow down in the next time. Combined with this quarter's data, unfortunately, it's right.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd1f29dff47a475b5a5244890aecfec\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As of March 31, Pinduoduo's annual active buyers reached 823.8 million, higher than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>811 million was announced not long ago, but it increased by 35.4 million quarter-on-quarter, setting a record low since the second quarter of 2019. So, what Pinduoduo will do next, in David Liu's words, is to improve user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfd024d1766a8c415add428c633cc71\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the past, Pinduoduo would publish the annual consumption data of active buyers in its financial report, but it was not disclosed in this quarter, so we can't intuitively see whether user stickiness has improved.</p><p>However, it can be seen from the many speeches of Pinduoduo executives that there are two ways for Pinduoduo to achieve this goal: one is to attract more brand merchants to settle in and expand categories, and the other is to buy more food. Among them, the latter is particularly important.</p><p>David Liu also revealed the latest progress of Duoduomaicai: At present, Duoduomaicai has carried out business in more than 300 major cities, and with the continuous improvement of local infrastructure, it has also brought the consumer behavior we want.</p><p>However, community group buying is gradually being brought into the scope of supervision. In March of this year, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed penalties on several leading community group buying companies, believing that these companies had behaviors such as \"burning money to grab the market and raising prices after monopoly.\" This status quo may bring some uncertainties to Pinduoduo's future plans.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/omn/TEC20210/TEC2021052700661100.html\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e27455b9be3cc5a8935393c433d3875","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/omn/TEC20210/TEC2021052700661100.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138140998","content_text":"5月26日晚间，拼多多发布了2021年第一季度财报，这也是黄峥卸任董事长、陈磊接任董事长之后的首份财报。\n财报显示，第一季度拼多多营收221.7亿元，同比增长239%；非通用会计准则下，归属于普通股股东的净亏损为18.903亿元，同比大幅收窄；截至2021年3月31日，拼多多年度活跃买家数达到8.238亿，较上一年同期净增1.957亿。\n单从这几个核心数据上看，拼多多的成绩单似乎还不错。但拼多多股价却在科技股普遍走强的情况下，逆势下挫超5%，不禁让人怀疑：拼多多不行了吗？黄峥卸任之后，陈磊能否守住拼多多的基本盘？年度活跃买家逐渐触碰天花板的时候，拼多多的增长点又在哪儿？本期《企鹅解码》为您揭秘。\n自营商品销售刺激营收大涨\n\n从去年第四季度开始，拼多多上线了自营模式，财报中也开始加入了“商品收入”一项。也正是由于这个变化，拼多多营收增速从去年开始重回100%之上，在本季度更是达到了239%，创下近两年新高。由于去年二三季度没有“商品收入”，预计拼多多的营收增速仍将维持高速增长。\n与之前财报不同，拼多多并没有公布年化GMV，因此无法直观看出自营业务对拼多多GMV的改善。但在财报结束后的电话会议上，拼多多财务副总裁财马靖表示，自营业务是在商家无法满足消费者需求的时候，平台所做的一个暂时满足需求的渠道，这个业务并不是拼多多的战略重点，所以产生的GMV对于整体平台来说是非常小的。\n上个季度，拼多多的年化GMV为1.67万亿元，分摊到每个季度约为4175亿元。本季度，拼多多来自自营的收入为51.24亿元，由此可见这部分对于营收的增长贡献很多，但对于GMV的提升，确实影响非常小。\n此外，如果将这部分刨除的话，拼多多的营收为170.46亿元，同比增长160.64%，增速为2019年下半年以来的新高。\n\n从拼多多当前营收结构来看，商品销售收入已成为第二大业务，第一大业务仍为营销服务。\n\n本季度，拼多多营销服务收入为141.1亿元，同比增长157%，创下近一年多以来的新高。\n\n交易服务收入虽然在拼多多的营收结构中占比最小，但是本季度的变化却值得注意：收入29.3亿元，同比增长180%，前者创下历史新高，后者创下近两年多以来的新高。\n也有分析师在电话会议上对这一高增长提出了疑问。对此，马靖的回答是：一是受一季度销售额的增长推动，二是受多多买菜业务营收增长的推动。\n但这个回答并没有揭开所有疑团。每年的第四季度，由于有双11购物狂欢，因此是电商平台每年的销售最旺季，营收也要显著高于其他季度，拼多多也并不例外，所以交易服务费用在每年的第四季度也应该是最高的，而次年的第一季度应该会环比下降。\n今年一季度拼多多的营收环比下降超40亿元，从理论上来看，交易服务费用也应该环比下滑，但实际情况是，交易服务费用环比增长了6.6亿元。因此，拼多多究竟是如何做到的，仍是一个疑问。\n营销支出占营收比重下降明显\n自营业务虽然带动营收大涨，但随之而来的也是营收成本的激增。\n\n从去年第四季度开始，拼多多的营收成本一举突破了100亿元，本季度达到了107.5亿元，同比增长487%，远超营收的增速。\n\n营收成本大增带来的一个直接后果就是毛利润的下滑。过去几个季度，拼多多的毛利率始终维持在70%以上，但是从去年第四季度开始，骤降至56.58%，本季度进一步降至51.52%，预计拼多多将在很长一段时间内，毛利率无法回至高点。\n此外，上图也让很多人产生一个困惑：拼多多的毛利率如此之高，为何会长期无法盈利？答案就在于：拼多多的市场营销费用居高不下。\n\n拼多多用于营销的费用已经连续两个季度超过了140亿元，157%的增速也创下了近两年的新高，这与拼多多正在加大对多多买菜的扶持分不开。\n但拼多多战略副总裁David Liu在电话会议上提到，整个营销费用在营收当中的占比是在下滑。\n\n两年前，拼多多的营销费用还超过营收，占比超过100%，但随后这一数据有了极大的改善，去年第四季度和今年第一季度，分别仅有55.42%和63.66%。\n这说明拼多多的营销效率出现了提升，即营销费用相应减少，并没有影响到营收的增长。David Liu还表示，多多买菜业务更好地满足了用户需求，拓展了公司的履约能力，这部分用户的购买频次也更高，在营销支出方面，长期而言公司也是受益的。\n此外，营销费用占比的下滑，还大幅改善了拼多多的盈利情况。去年一季度，营销费用占比达到了111.55%，因此同期亏损达到了31.7亿元，而今年仅为18.9亿元，同比大幅收窄。\n提高用户粘性成拼多多下一步重点\n在上个季度的电话会议上，David Liu曾预警：鉴于目前拼多多用户的规模，我认为不可避免的接下来的时间用户的增速将会放缓。结合本季度的数据来看，不幸言中。\n\n截止到3月31日的拼多多年度活跃买家达到了8.238亿人，高于阿里巴巴不久前公布的8.11亿，但环比增长3540万，创下了2019年第二季度以来的最低纪录。所以，拼多多下一步要做什么，用David Liu的话来说，就是要提高用户的粘性。\n\n过去拼多多会在财报中公布年度活跃买家的消费数据，但是这一季度并没有披露，因此我们无法直观地看到用户粘性是否有所提高。\n但是从拼多多高管的多次讲话可以看出来，拼多多达成这一目标的方式有两个：一个是吸引更多品牌商家的入驻，扩充品类，另一个则是多多买菜。其中，后者尤为重要。\nDavid Liu也透露了多多买菜的最新进展：目前多多买菜在300多个主要城市中都开展了业务，并且在随着当地基础设施的不断的改善，也带来了我们想要的消费者行为。\n但社区团购正在逐渐被纳入监管范围之内。今年3月，市场监管总局对几家头部的社区团购公司做出了处罚，认为这些公司存在“烧钱抢市场、垄断后提价”等行为。这一现状或许给拼多多未来的计划带来了一些不确定的因素。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"48394":0.9,"48568":0.9,"48579":0.9,"48677":0.9,"48687":0.9,"48698":0.9,"48699":0.9,"48711":0.9,"PDD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136529430,"gmtCreate":1622030056720,"gmtModify":1704178123079,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136529430","repostId":"1113676067","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113676067","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622028675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113676067?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 19:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113676067","media":"中国财富管理50...","summary":"摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席中国财富管理50人论坛举办的“经济增长形势分析闭门座谈会”，并作发言时表示，美国“高压经济学”政策刺激下通胀卷土重来，带来长期结构性通胀，给“俏也不争春”的中国经济","content":"<p>Xing Ziqiang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley China, attended the \"Closed-door Symposium on Economic Growth Situation Analysis\" held by the China Wealth Management 50 Forum, and said in his speech that inflation has returned under the stimulus of the \"high-pressure economics\" policy of the United States. Long-term structural inflation has brought external challenges to China's economic recovery, which is \"beautiful but not competing for spring\". At present, the recovery of China's manufacturing investment has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", but concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to the fact that consumption has not yet fully recovered, and there is no long-term risk of China's inflation.</p><p>Xing Ziqiang said that China's goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies, and the next step is to remain stable and grasp the policy rhythm. The essence of this year's regulatory \"storm\" lies in focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent, and the ultimate goal is to build a new regulatory framework and reduce systemic risks. In particular, the focus of this supervision is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance. In the future, regulatory policies will be more predictable and transparent, and pay more attention to policy communication, thereby reducing disturbances that bring uncertainty to the market.</p><p><b>Core Points</b></p><p>➢ First, the inflation trilogy plays out: rising commodity prices are the first part of the global spillover effects of U.S. high-pressure economics. The second chapter is the spiral of labor costs and inflation expectations caused by the overheating of the American economy. And<b>The final chapter of the resurgence of inflation, or the 3T reversal (anti-globalization, anti-platform giant, and fair income distribution), has pushed the Phillips curve to steep again, and long-term inflation has rebounded.</b></p><p>➢ Second, in response to global inflation, China can guide the reduction of commodity speculation in the short term and ensure stable supply expectations. In the medium and long term, China's current policy round has taken the lead in returning to normal, steadily withdrawing from stimulus, preventing asset bubbles,<b>The regulatory \"storm\" dares to \"gnaw the bones\", which is in sharp contrast to the loose stimulus of developed countries. \"China's economic governance\" provides the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era.</b></p><p>➢ Third, although the direction is correct, decision-makers can still reduce the uncertainty and disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication. More transparent policy change procedures can highlight<b>China's determination to focus on the long-term, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, and stabilize market confidence will help alleviate overseas misunderstandings of China's policy direction caused by cultural barriers under the trend of anti-globalization, thus laying a solid foundation for further internationalization of RMB.</b></p><p>The following is a transcript of the speech:</p><p><b>American \"High Pressure Economics\" and Cyclical Inflation</b></p><p>When China's developed economies continued to increase stimulus efforts, it took the lead in restoring normalized policies, focusing on stabilizing leverage, managing debt risks, and improving the long-term sustainability of the economy. This is a more rational choice, which can be described as \"not competing for spring\". But external challenges may have just begun.</p><p>Since the second half of last year, the author believes that the world will face a resurgence of inflation, especially the United States. At present, the U.S. economy is facing relatively major changes, not only the short-term overheating caused by Biden's stimulus, but also the policy \"left turn\" brought about by long-term inflation and anti-globalization thoughts. More attention is paid to fair distribution, which will lead to the resurgence of long-term inflation. China also has a great impact.</p><p>The goal of the \"high-pressure economics\" being built in the United States is not only to pursue GDP growth to return to the pre-epidemic trajectory, but to achieve income equity and maximize employment for low-and middle-income groups and the working class. In this process, the United States can condone or even actively seek the overshoot of economic growth, and not loosen the \"throttle\" until it achieves its goal, hoping to drive tension in the labor market and rise wages. In this process, the excess of stimulus policies is obvious. However, there is no free lunch in the world, and one of the side effects of \"high-pressure economics\" is inflation. If the U.S. economy overheats, the core inflation rate is likely to reach 2.5% by the end of this year.</p><p><b>Three drivers of U.S. inflation's comeback</b></p><p><b>First, the policy is extremely strong.</b>After launching the US $1.9 trillion rescue plan, the United States is still increasing its stimulus policies, and it is likely to pass an infrastructure stimulus plan close to US $2 trillion in the second half of the year. This plan has \"four pillars\":<b>One is</b>Old infrastructure, such as building roads and bridges, but this part only accounts for 1/3 of the plan;<b>The second is</b>New infrastructure, such as telecommunications and broadband industries;<b>Third,</b>Green Energy;<b>The fourth is</b>It's education and training.</p><p>At present, there is a high probability that the \"four pillars\" plan will be officially adopted in October and realized through budget coordination. Regarding the effect of this investment plan, judging from the investment situation of public projects in the United States in the past few decades, basically half of the funds will be allocated in the first or second years. The infrastructure plan will become another \"shot in the arm\" for the U.S. economic recovery, and the stimulus will be further strengthened.</p><p><b>Second, vaccines are being rolled out extremely fast.</b>At present, the vaccine promotion in the United States is rapid, and the potential consumer demand is expected to be released again in the summer. This summer, American hotel and air ticket reservations are full, no less than China's May Day holiday.</p><p><b>Third, consumers have a lot of \"surplus food\".</b>This round of adjustment in the wealth of American consumers has not hurt their muscles and bones. On the contrary, after several rounds of financial assistance during the epidemic, U.S. residents currently have up to $2 trillion in excess savings in their accounts. Under such circumstances, as long as vaccines are in place and living habits are restored, the spending power of US $2 trillion is expected to be released explosively.</p><p>Driven by three major factors, the U.S. economy will definitely overheat this year, and cyclical inflationary pressures will rise significantly. Moreover, the United States did not rush to withdraw from this round of stimulus policies. It did not withdraw from fiscal policy when the unemployment rate remained at a high of 10% and monetary policy when the unemployment rate remained at 7%, as it did in 2009. In the first half of this year, the U.S. economic growth rate may be as high as 9.6%, and it will remain at 7% in the second half of this year, far exceeding the potential growth rate.</p><p>In terms of currency, the month-on-month growth rate of the US economy next year may be close to 5%, which is also a sign of overheating. From the perspective of the labor market, the current U.S. employment cost index has increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and it is difficult for productivity to rise simultaneously. Therefore, inflation is likely to come back. It is expected that U.S. core PCE inflation may reach 2.6% in the next few months.</p><p>At present, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not tighten monetary policy, so there is no need to worry about rising inflation. This is also the result of the Fed's repeated \"reassurance\" for everyone. However, if inflation exceeds expectations, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to start a \"shrinking balance sheet\" at the end of the year, and rate hike will also be early.</p><p><b>Long-term inflation makes a structural comeback</b></p><p>Many researchers mainly focus on whether this round of stimulus in the United States will significantly push up commodity prices, have a cost impact on China's PPI prices, and then affect China's economic and monetary policies. This direction is certainly worthy of attention, but it is only the first part of this big inflation cycle, and may not even be the main source of global and U.S. inflation in the next stage.</p><p>Whether inflation in the United States is rising or not, the next step is whether its economic trend of thought turns left and excessive stimulus can ultimately drive tension in the labor market. At present, the risk that long-term and structural inflation in the United States will return is not small: in the past 20 years, the United States has also taken some stimulus measures, but inflation has not risen in the end. But the three dominant forces that have kept inflation in check over the past 20 years are being reversed. These three forces are trade globalization, technology platformization, and income distribution enterprise. I summarize it as the \"3T\".</p><p><b>First, trade globalization.</b>At present, all countries are reflecting on the layout of trade chains. The cost of industrial chains in 5G, semiconductors, medical equipment and other fields in developed countries may rise, and the globalization trend is being reversed.</p><p><b>Second, technology platformization.</b>In the past 20 years, the world has connived at and encouraged the development of platform companies and Internet companies, believing that their R&D and innovation have improved productivity and suppressed price levels. However, the \"winner-takes-all\" situation has led to a widening gap between the rich and the poor, which has also caused countries to worry about potential risks. They have rereflected their regulatory attitude towards technology platform companies and begun to intervene in issues such as anti-monopoly, digital tax, and digital use supervision..</p><p><b>Third, income distribution should be enterprised.</b>This round of U.S. stimulus package clearly proposes to adjust income distribution. In the 1980s, the Reagan administration implemented policies such as small government, deregulation, low tax rate, and embracing globalization, which led to the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and capitalists and enterprises shared more and more \"cakes\". Bidenomics represents a correction of the role of small governments, hoping to adjust income distribution through measures such as raising taxes on enterprises, raising capital gains taxes, strengthening transfer payments to low-and middle-income groups, and even raising the federal minimum wage.</p><p>These three factors make this round of cyclical inflation in the United States not only a \"flash in the pan\", but a long-term and sustainable structural inflation.</p><p><b>China's inflationary pressure is far less than that of the United States</b></p><p>At present, China's economic recovery is uneven. Growth is mainly driven by manufacturing and exports, and the recovery of domestic consumption is still relatively slow.</p><p><b>In terms of external demand, the growth rate of the industrial sector has exceeded the potential growth rate by 5 percentage points, which not only fills the \"pit\" caused by the epidemic, but also shows a trend of exceeding the potential growth, but this cannot be sustained for a long time.</b>During the epidemic, the production chain of other countries was broken and the supply was insufficient, so China's export share continued to rise. But in the next three or four quarters, exports are expected to return slowly. Because the production capacity of various countries is gradually recovering and the consumption pattern is gradually returning to normal, normal service consumption will be carried out instead of shopping electronic products from China online at home.</p><p>During this round of epidemic, the long-term significance of China's export performance is that the resilience of China's manufacturing industry has passed the test. Last year, the global economy stagnated due to the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, and it was \"already a cliff of hundreds of feet of ice.\" However, China's \"unique flowers and branches\" took the lead in recovering, which also ensured a safe harbor for the global production and supply chain.</p><p>At present, due to the re-spread of the Novel Coronavirus variant and the renewed emergency of the epidemic in major emerging markets, the recovery of global supply is facing challenges again, so export orders continue to be transferred to the most stable and reliable Chinese supply chain. The utilization rate of manufacturing capacity has climbed to the highest level in history, the demand for long-term corporate loans has recovered steadily, and the import demand of industrial robots and machine tools is strong. These indicators all point to the recovery of China's manufacturing investment.</p><p>In view of the comparison of the performance of China and foreign countries under the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia, which has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", the growth rate of manufacturing investment this year is expected to pick up, surpassing the investment trajectory before the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87abc1ed3051bb90f66fde6c714b3027\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 1: Manufacturing investment confidence recovers</b></p><p><b>In terms of domestic demand, China's current consumption growth rate is at least 2 to 3 percentage points lower than the potential growth rate before the epidemic.</b>The difference in consumption between China and the United States is very obvious. Why is China's consumption recovering slow?<b>One is</b>China has not adopted the direct transfer payment measures of western economies, such as issuing checks.<b>The second is</b>The recovery of the job market fell short of expectations. By tracking employment data, there are still many hidden unemployment in consumer fields such as offline retail, entertainment, and personal care, and the growth rate of online platform recruitment has only recovered by less than half.</p><p>As a result, concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to consumption not fully recovering yet. It is expected that after the third and fourth quarters, if the epidemic situation is steadily controlled, the full recovery of consumption can be realized.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b67ad8d78d608518fde1060e416bbdc\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 2: Consumption recovery is relatively slow</b></p><p><b>In terms of inflation, there is also a large gap between China and the United States.</b>The \"high-pressure economics\" of the United States is that it will not give up until it achieves its goal. Whether it is cyclical inflation or long-term inflation, it may come back. The rise in commodity and raw material prices in China mainly comes from the short-term pressure on corporate profits. Its transmission to overall inflation is relatively limited, and its impact on monetary policy is relatively small.</p><p>The recent excessive rise in commodity prices has caused market concerns. It is undeniable that the rise in raw material prices will squeeze the profits of downstream companies in the short term. In particular, some companies cannot raise prices in time because they need to complete orders in hand, so they must bear all cost pressures, or even make money at a loss. As a policy response, China has strengthened guidance to reduce commodity futures speculation, and can also increase domestic supply by adjusting the pace of production cuts in steel, aluminum, coal and other industries.</p><p>But overall, this round of commodity price inflation is largely due to global factors: excessive policy stimulus in developed countries has driven demand, while supply-side bottlenecks are still constrained, and some major foreign commodity exporting countries have failed to fully restore its production capacity due to the epidemic and other reasons.</p><p>However, the inflationary pressure facing China, especially the pressure on core consumer prices, is controllable. After all, the supply of goods and services in China has recovered the fastest, faster than domestic demand, while the demand side is still on a slow and step-by-step recovery trajectory. Compared with the supply-demand imbalance in overseas developed countries where the supply side is far from recovering, but demand has taken the lead, China's own inflationary pressure is limited. It is expected that the CPI will rebound moderately but not overheat. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI will be in May and June. It peaked above 8% in the month, and then entered a slow downward channel in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d48614e5c7ef7cc974897de32afdac6\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f177de6d9166486bb36096ffef9beb98\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 3: China's inflation has no long-term danger</b></p><p><b>Policy withdrawal has been achieved and the next step remains stable</b></p><p>At present, the financial regulatory policies that have been introduced can basically achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year, and the next step is to grasp the rhythm.</p><p>From last year's Central Economic Work Conference to this year's Politburo meeting, most policy directions are relatively clear. Specifically, in addition to the gradual return of fiscal policy to normal and the reduction of deficits, financial supervision and macro-prudential policies mainly include three aspects:<b>One is</b>Systemically important financial institutions should gradually expand their capacity, increase the requirements for the capital adequacy ratio of some banks,<b>The second is</b>Macro-prudential requirements for the \"three red lines\" of real estate and loan concentration,<b>Third,</b>It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of bond issuance by local financing platforms.</p><p>These policies are basically enough to achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year. Estimates show that by the third quarter of this year, the growth rate of total social financing will drop from 13.5% at the end of last year to 11.5% or even 11%. It is estimated that the nominal GDP growth rate this year is expected to be above 11%, and the social financing and nominal GDP growth rate will be basically consistent. Therefore, the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies.</p><p><b>Supervision \"storm\": penetrating the phenomenon to see the essence, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent</b></p><p>Many regulatory \"storms\" that started this year are essentially focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating talents. Including strong supervision of financial technology, anti-monopoly of platform companies, and carbon peaking actions, it seems that the market has been caught off guard, but they are in line with the direction of the new economic governance mechanism established by China in the past few years: plugging loopholes, making up for shortcomings, and stabilizing leverage to reduce systemic risks, avoiding financial crises, and improving social problems.</p><p>In fact, the recent new regulatory measures are the fourth round of regulatory \"storm\" in the past six years. The previous three rounds were the supply-side reform of industries with overcapacity from 2016 to 2018, the battle to resolve financial risks, and environmental protection governance. The macro background of their emergence is that the structural imbalance of China's economy has accumulated after 2008, and the demographic dividend has gradually dissipated. The growth rate of total factor productivity, which measures the sustainability of long-term growth, has been declining year by year, and the regulatory framework of some industries has failed to keep pace with the times after years of high growth.</p><p>Therefore, the ultimate goal of the above-mentioned rounds of regulatory \"storms\" since 2015 is to build a new regulatory framework, plug loopholes, make up shortcomings, and stabilize leverage to reduce systemic risks. Although there were some concerns about market confidence in the short term, the prices of market assets such as stocks were adjusted at that time; However, the \"short-term pain\" of strong supervision has finally brought significant long-term benefits to China's economy: the past several rounds of regulatory storms have finally improved the stability of China's financial system, stabilized the whole macro leverage ratio, reduced the debt risk, and did not continuously squeeze the vitality of the private sector, and the total factor productivity remained stable.</p><p>For example, after the capital outflow slowed down, the internationalization of RMB has started again under the three-pillar system of expanding financial opening, deepening domestic reform, and expanding the scope of use of RMB; China's financial system has become more resilient due to the clean-up of shadow banking, keeping the bottom line of no systemic financial risks; In 2018, there were rounds of supervision for the Internet, medicine, games, education and other industries. In the end, it did not inhibit its subsequent benign development.</p><p>The recent supervision of technology platform companies also reflects the policy level's balance between \"short-term pain\" and long-term interests. Globally, policymakers and researchers are thinking that the rapidly rising monopoly position of large technology platforms may have squeezed the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises, exacerbated social problems such as the protection of the rich and the poor and workers, and may inhibit innovation and threaten financial stability in the long run. Therefore, the focus of China's supervision this time is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance.</p><p>Of course, before and after this process, the decision-making level can still reduce the uncertainty disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication, and further increase the predictability of policies. A more transparent policy environment can not only better demonstrate China's determination to take a long-term view, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, stabilize market confidence, but also help alleviate overseas policies on China caused by cultural barriers under the anti-globalization trend of thought. Misreading, thus making China expected to provide the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era and further consolidate the foundation for RMB internationalization.</p><p>In the next step, we should pay attention to the rhythm of the new policy. Because once regulatory policies are further tightened, social financing will fall more significantly, and it is easy to overshoot, which will have an impact on private sector confidence.</p>","source":"lsy1586655104126","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国财富管理50...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 19:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Xing Ziqiang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley China, attended the \"Closed-door Symposium on Economic Growth Situation Analysis\" held by the China Wealth Management 50 Forum, and said in his speech that inflation has returned under the stimulus of the \"high-pressure economics\" policy of the United States. Long-term structural inflation has brought external challenges to China's economic recovery, which is \"beautiful but not competing for spring\". At present, the recovery of China's manufacturing investment has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", but concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to the fact that consumption has not yet fully recovered, and there is no long-term risk of China's inflation.</p><p>Xing Ziqiang said that China's goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies, and the next step is to remain stable and grasp the policy rhythm. The essence of this year's regulatory \"storm\" lies in focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent, and the ultimate goal is to build a new regulatory framework and reduce systemic risks. In particular, the focus of this supervision is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance. In the future, regulatory policies will be more predictable and transparent, and pay more attention to policy communication, thereby reducing disturbances that bring uncertainty to the market.</p><p><b>Core Points</b></p><p>➢ First, the inflation trilogy plays out: rising commodity prices are the first part of the global spillover effects of U.S. high-pressure economics. The second chapter is the spiral of labor costs and inflation expectations caused by the overheating of the American economy. And<b>The final chapter of the resurgence of inflation, or the 3T reversal (anti-globalization, anti-platform giant, and fair income distribution), has pushed the Phillips curve to steep again, and long-term inflation has rebounded.</b></p><p>➢ Second, in response to global inflation, China can guide the reduction of commodity speculation in the short term and ensure stable supply expectations. In the medium and long term, China's current policy round has taken the lead in returning to normal, steadily withdrawing from stimulus, preventing asset bubbles,<b>The regulatory \"storm\" dares to \"gnaw the bones\", which is in sharp contrast to the loose stimulus of developed countries. \"China's economic governance\" provides the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era.</b></p><p>➢ Third, although the direction is correct, decision-makers can still reduce the uncertainty and disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication. More transparent policy change procedures can highlight<b>China's determination to focus on the long-term, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, and stabilize market confidence will help alleviate overseas misunderstandings of China's policy direction caused by cultural barriers under the trend of anti-globalization, thus laying a solid foundation for further internationalization of RMB.</b></p><p>The following is a transcript of the speech:</p><p><b>American \"High Pressure Economics\" and Cyclical Inflation</b></p><p>When China's developed economies continued to increase stimulus efforts, it took the lead in restoring normalized policies, focusing on stabilizing leverage, managing debt risks, and improving the long-term sustainability of the economy. This is a more rational choice, which can be described as \"not competing for spring\". But external challenges may have just begun.</p><p>Since the second half of last year, the author believes that the world will face a resurgence of inflation, especially the United States. At present, the U.S. economy is facing relatively major changes, not only the short-term overheating caused by Biden's stimulus, but also the policy \"left turn\" brought about by long-term inflation and anti-globalization thoughts. More attention is paid to fair distribution, which will lead to the resurgence of long-term inflation. China also has a great impact.</p><p>The goal of the \"high-pressure economics\" being built in the United States is not only to pursue GDP growth to return to the pre-epidemic trajectory, but to achieve income equity and maximize employment for low-and middle-income groups and the working class. In this process, the United States can condone or even actively seek the overshoot of economic growth, and not loosen the \"throttle\" until it achieves its goal, hoping to drive tension in the labor market and rise wages. In this process, the excess of stimulus policies is obvious. However, there is no free lunch in the world, and one of the side effects of \"high-pressure economics\" is inflation. If the U.S. economy overheats, the core inflation rate is likely to reach 2.5% by the end of this year.</p><p><b>Three drivers of U.S. inflation's comeback</b></p><p><b>First, the policy is extremely strong.</b>After launching the US $1.9 trillion rescue plan, the United States is still increasing its stimulus policies, and it is likely to pass an infrastructure stimulus plan close to US $2 trillion in the second half of the year. This plan has \"four pillars\":<b>One is</b>Old infrastructure, such as building roads and bridges, but this part only accounts for 1/3 of the plan;<b>The second is</b>New infrastructure, such as telecommunications and broadband industries;<b>Third,</b>Green Energy;<b>The fourth is</b>It's education and training.</p><p>At present, there is a high probability that the \"four pillars\" plan will be officially adopted in October and realized through budget coordination. Regarding the effect of this investment plan, judging from the investment situation of public projects in the United States in the past few decades, basically half of the funds will be allocated in the first or second years. The infrastructure plan will become another \"shot in the arm\" for the U.S. economic recovery, and the stimulus will be further strengthened.</p><p><b>Second, vaccines are being rolled out extremely fast.</b>At present, the vaccine promotion in the United States is rapid, and the potential consumer demand is expected to be released again in the summer. This summer, American hotel and air ticket reservations are full, no less than China's May Day holiday.</p><p><b>Third, consumers have a lot of \"surplus food\".</b>This round of adjustment in the wealth of American consumers has not hurt their muscles and bones. On the contrary, after several rounds of financial assistance during the epidemic, U.S. residents currently have up to $2 trillion in excess savings in their accounts. Under such circumstances, as long as vaccines are in place and living habits are restored, the spending power of US $2 trillion is expected to be released explosively.</p><p>Driven by three major factors, the U.S. economy will definitely overheat this year, and cyclical inflationary pressures will rise significantly. Moreover, the United States did not rush to withdraw from this round of stimulus policies. It did not withdraw from fiscal policy when the unemployment rate remained at a high of 10% and monetary policy when the unemployment rate remained at 7%, as it did in 2009. In the first half of this year, the U.S. economic growth rate may be as high as 9.6%, and it will remain at 7% in the second half of this year, far exceeding the potential growth rate.</p><p>In terms of currency, the month-on-month growth rate of the US economy next year may be close to 5%, which is also a sign of overheating. From the perspective of the labor market, the current U.S. employment cost index has increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and it is difficult for productivity to rise simultaneously. Therefore, inflation is likely to come back. It is expected that U.S. core PCE inflation may reach 2.6% in the next few months.</p><p>At present, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not tighten monetary policy, so there is no need to worry about rising inflation. This is also the result of the Fed's repeated \"reassurance\" for everyone. However, if inflation exceeds expectations, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to start a \"shrinking balance sheet\" at the end of the year, and rate hike will also be early.</p><p><b>Long-term inflation makes a structural comeback</b></p><p>Many researchers mainly focus on whether this round of stimulus in the United States will significantly push up commodity prices, have a cost impact on China's PPI prices, and then affect China's economic and monetary policies. This direction is certainly worthy of attention, but it is only the first part of this big inflation cycle, and may not even be the main source of global and U.S. inflation in the next stage.</p><p>Whether inflation in the United States is rising or not, the next step is whether its economic trend of thought turns left and excessive stimulus can ultimately drive tension in the labor market. At present, the risk that long-term and structural inflation in the United States will return is not small: in the past 20 years, the United States has also taken some stimulus measures, but inflation has not risen in the end. But the three dominant forces that have kept inflation in check over the past 20 years are being reversed. These three forces are trade globalization, technology platformization, and income distribution enterprise. I summarize it as the \"3T\".</p><p><b>First, trade globalization.</b>At present, all countries are reflecting on the layout of trade chains. The cost of industrial chains in 5G, semiconductors, medical equipment and other fields in developed countries may rise, and the globalization trend is being reversed.</p><p><b>Second, technology platformization.</b>In the past 20 years, the world has connived at and encouraged the development of platform companies and Internet companies, believing that their R&D and innovation have improved productivity and suppressed price levels. However, the \"winner-takes-all\" situation has led to a widening gap between the rich and the poor, which has also caused countries to worry about potential risks. They have rereflected their regulatory attitude towards technology platform companies and begun to intervene in issues such as anti-monopoly, digital tax, and digital use supervision..</p><p><b>Third, income distribution should be enterprised.</b>This round of U.S. stimulus package clearly proposes to adjust income distribution. In the 1980s, the Reagan administration implemented policies such as small government, deregulation, low tax rate, and embracing globalization, which led to the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and capitalists and enterprises shared more and more \"cakes\". Bidenomics represents a correction of the role of small governments, hoping to adjust income distribution through measures such as raising taxes on enterprises, raising capital gains taxes, strengthening transfer payments to low-and middle-income groups, and even raising the federal minimum wage.</p><p>These three factors make this round of cyclical inflation in the United States not only a \"flash in the pan\", but a long-term and sustainable structural inflation.</p><p><b>China's inflationary pressure is far less than that of the United States</b></p><p>At present, China's economic recovery is uneven. Growth is mainly driven by manufacturing and exports, and the recovery of domestic consumption is still relatively slow.</p><p><b>In terms of external demand, the growth rate of the industrial sector has exceeded the potential growth rate by 5 percentage points, which not only fills the \"pit\" caused by the epidemic, but also shows a trend of exceeding the potential growth, but this cannot be sustained for a long time.</b>During the epidemic, the production chain of other countries was broken and the supply was insufficient, so China's export share continued to rise. But in the next three or four quarters, exports are expected to return slowly. Because the production capacity of various countries is gradually recovering and the consumption pattern is gradually returning to normal, normal service consumption will be carried out instead of shopping electronic products from China online at home.</p><p>During this round of epidemic, the long-term significance of China's export performance is that the resilience of China's manufacturing industry has passed the test. Last year, the global economy stagnated due to the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, and it was \"already a cliff of hundreds of feet of ice.\" However, China's \"unique flowers and branches\" took the lead in recovering, which also ensured a safe harbor for the global production and supply chain.</p><p>At present, due to the re-spread of the Novel Coronavirus variant and the renewed emergency of the epidemic in major emerging markets, the recovery of global supply is facing challenges again, so export orders continue to be transferred to the most stable and reliable Chinese supply chain. The utilization rate of manufacturing capacity has climbed to the highest level in history, the demand for long-term corporate loans has recovered steadily, and the import demand of industrial robots and machine tools is strong. These indicators all point to the recovery of China's manufacturing investment.</p><p>In view of the comparison of the performance of China and foreign countries under the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia, which has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", the growth rate of manufacturing investment this year is expected to pick up, surpassing the investment trajectory before the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87abc1ed3051bb90f66fde6c714b3027\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 1: Manufacturing investment confidence recovers</b></p><p><b>In terms of domestic demand, China's current consumption growth rate is at least 2 to 3 percentage points lower than the potential growth rate before the epidemic.</b>The difference in consumption between China and the United States is very obvious. Why is China's consumption recovering slow?<b>One is</b>China has not adopted the direct transfer payment measures of western economies, such as issuing checks.<b>The second is</b>The recovery of the job market fell short of expectations. By tracking employment data, there are still many hidden unemployment in consumer fields such as offline retail, entertainment, and personal care, and the growth rate of online platform recruitment has only recovered by less than half.</p><p>As a result, concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to consumption not fully recovering yet. It is expected that after the third and fourth quarters, if the epidemic situation is steadily controlled, the full recovery of consumption can be realized.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b67ad8d78d608518fde1060e416bbdc\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 2: Consumption recovery is relatively slow</b></p><p><b>In terms of inflation, there is also a large gap between China and the United States.</b>The \"high-pressure economics\" of the United States is that it will not give up until it achieves its goal. Whether it is cyclical inflation or long-term inflation, it may come back. The rise in commodity and raw material prices in China mainly comes from the short-term pressure on corporate profits. Its transmission to overall inflation is relatively limited, and its impact on monetary policy is relatively small.</p><p>The recent excessive rise in commodity prices has caused market concerns. It is undeniable that the rise in raw material prices will squeeze the profits of downstream companies in the short term. In particular, some companies cannot raise prices in time because they need to complete orders in hand, so they must bear all cost pressures, or even make money at a loss. As a policy response, China has strengthened guidance to reduce commodity futures speculation, and can also increase domestic supply by adjusting the pace of production cuts in steel, aluminum, coal and other industries.</p><p>But overall, this round of commodity price inflation is largely due to global factors: excessive policy stimulus in developed countries has driven demand, while supply-side bottlenecks are still constrained, and some major foreign commodity exporting countries have failed to fully restore its production capacity due to the epidemic and other reasons.</p><p>However, the inflationary pressure facing China, especially the pressure on core consumer prices, is controllable. After all, the supply of goods and services in China has recovered the fastest, faster than domestic demand, while the demand side is still on a slow and step-by-step recovery trajectory. Compared with the supply-demand imbalance in overseas developed countries where the supply side is far from recovering, but demand has taken the lead, China's own inflationary pressure is limited. It is expected that the CPI will rebound moderately but not overheat. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI will be in May and June. It peaked above 8% in the month, and then entered a slow downward channel in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d48614e5c7ef7cc974897de32afdac6\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f177de6d9166486bb36096ffef9beb98\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 3: China's inflation has no long-term danger</b></p><p><b>Policy withdrawal has been achieved and the next step remains stable</b></p><p>At present, the financial regulatory policies that have been introduced can basically achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year, and the next step is to grasp the rhythm.</p><p>From last year's Central Economic Work Conference to this year's Politburo meeting, most policy directions are relatively clear. Specifically, in addition to the gradual return of fiscal policy to normal and the reduction of deficits, financial supervision and macro-prudential policies mainly include three aspects:<b>One is</b>Systemically important financial institutions should gradually expand their capacity, increase the requirements for the capital adequacy ratio of some banks,<b>The second is</b>Macro-prudential requirements for the \"three red lines\" of real estate and loan concentration,<b>Third,</b>It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of bond issuance by local financing platforms.</p><p>These policies are basically enough to achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year. Estimates show that by the third quarter of this year, the growth rate of total social financing will drop from 13.5% at the end of last year to 11.5% or even 11%. It is estimated that the nominal GDP growth rate this year is expected to be above 11%, and the social financing and nominal GDP growth rate will be basically consistent. Therefore, the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies.</p><p><b>Supervision \"storm\": penetrating the phenomenon to see the essence, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent</b></p><p>Many regulatory \"storms\" that started this year are essentially focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating talents. Including strong supervision of financial technology, anti-monopoly of platform companies, and carbon peaking actions, it seems that the market has been caught off guard, but they are in line with the direction of the new economic governance mechanism established by China in the past few years: plugging loopholes, making up for shortcomings, and stabilizing leverage to reduce systemic risks, avoiding financial crises, and improving social problems.</p><p>In fact, the recent new regulatory measures are the fourth round of regulatory \"storm\" in the past six years. The previous three rounds were the supply-side reform of industries with overcapacity from 2016 to 2018, the battle to resolve financial risks, and environmental protection governance. The macro background of their emergence is that the structural imbalance of China's economy has accumulated after 2008, and the demographic dividend has gradually dissipated. The growth rate of total factor productivity, which measures the sustainability of long-term growth, has been declining year by year, and the regulatory framework of some industries has failed to keep pace with the times after years of high growth.</p><p>Therefore, the ultimate goal of the above-mentioned rounds of regulatory \"storms\" since 2015 is to build a new regulatory framework, plug loopholes, make up shortcomings, and stabilize leverage to reduce systemic risks. Although there were some concerns about market confidence in the short term, the prices of market assets such as stocks were adjusted at that time; However, the \"short-term pain\" of strong supervision has finally brought significant long-term benefits to China's economy: the past several rounds of regulatory storms have finally improved the stability of China's financial system, stabilized the whole macro leverage ratio, reduced the debt risk, and did not continuously squeeze the vitality of the private sector, and the total factor productivity remained stable.</p><p>For example, after the capital outflow slowed down, the internationalization of RMB has started again under the three-pillar system of expanding financial opening, deepening domestic reform, and expanding the scope of use of RMB; China's financial system has become more resilient due to the clean-up of shadow banking, keeping the bottom line of no systemic financial risks; In 2018, there were rounds of supervision for the Internet, medicine, games, education and other industries. In the end, it did not inhibit its subsequent benign development.</p><p>The recent supervision of technology platform companies also reflects the policy level's balance between \"short-term pain\" and long-term interests. Globally, policymakers and researchers are thinking that the rapidly rising monopoly position of large technology platforms may have squeezed the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises, exacerbated social problems such as the protection of the rich and the poor and workers, and may inhibit innovation and threaten financial stability in the long run. Therefore, the focus of China's supervision this time is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance.</p><p>Of course, before and after this process, the decision-making level can still reduce the uncertainty disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication, and further increase the predictability of policies. A more transparent policy environment can not only better demonstrate China's determination to take a long-term view, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, stabilize market confidence, but also help alleviate overseas policies on China caused by cultural barriers under the anti-globalization trend of thought. Misreading, thus making China expected to provide the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era and further consolidate the foundation for RMB internationalization.</p><p>In the next step, we should pay attention to the rhythm of the new policy. Because once regulatory policies are further tightened, social financing will fall more significantly, and it is easy to overshoot, which will have an impact on private sector confidence.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2_mdbG9LFrKJnE19_m2QKg\">中国财富管理50...</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2_mdbG9LFrKJnE19_m2QKg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113676067","content_text":"摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席中国财富管理50人论坛举办的“经济增长形势分析闭门座谈会”，并作发言时表示，美国“高压经济学”政策刺激下通胀卷土重来，带来长期结构性通胀，给“俏也不争春”的中国经济复苏带来外部挑战。当前，中国制造业投资复苏夯实“中国制造”吸引力，但对就业和收入不确定的担忧导致消费尚未完全恢复，中国的通胀并无长期之虞。\n邢自强表示，中国稳定宏观杠杆率的目标靠当前政策就可实现，下一步须保持稳健，把握政策节奏。今年监管“风暴”本质在于着眼长远，固本培元，最终目的是搭建新监管框架，降低系统性风险。尤其是此次监管焦点在科技巨头，实际上引领了全球经济治理新思潮。未来，监管政策将更预见性、更为透明，更注重政策沟通，从而减少给市场带来不确定性的扰动。\n核心要点\n➢第一，通胀三部曲奏响：大宗商品价格上涨是美国高压经济学对全球外溢效应的首部曲。第二章乃是美国经济过热带来劳动力成本与通胀预期的螺旋上升。而通胀卷土重来的最终章，或是3T逆转（逆全球化、逆平台巨头化、收入分配公平化）推动菲利普斯曲线重新陡峭，长期通胀回升。\n➢第二，应对全球通胀，中国短期内可引导减少大宗商品炒作，确保供给稳定预期。中长期，中国本轮政策率先回归常态，稳步退出刺激、防范资产泡沫、监管“风暴”敢于“啃骨头”，与发达国家竭泽焚薮的宽松刺激对比鲜明，“中国经济治理”为全球后疫情时代的经济治理机制提供了基石。\n➢第三，尽管方向正确，决策层仍可通过加强政策沟通去减少给市场带来的不确定性的扰动。更透明的政策变动程序，能彰显中国着眼长远、固本培元的决心，稳定市场信心，更有助于在逆全球化的趋势下，缓解因为文化隔阂引起的海外对中国政策走向的误读，从而夯实进一步人民币国际化的基础。\n以下为发言实录：\n美国“高压经济学”与周期性通胀\n中国在发达经济体继续加码刺激力度时，率先恢复了常态化政策，聚焦稳住杠杆，管理债务风险，改善经济的长期可持续性，这是一个比较理性的选择，可谓是“俏也不争春”。但外部挑战可能才刚刚开始。\n笔者从去年下半年开始，认为全球将面临通胀的卷土重来，特别是美国。目前美国经济面临比较大的变局，不只是拜登刺激引发的短期过热，更有长期通胀叠加逆全球化思潮带来的政策“左拐”，更加关注公平分配，这会导致长期通胀卷土重来，这对中国也有极大影响。\n美国正在打造的“高压经济学”，其目标不仅是追求GDP增速恢复到疫情前的轨迹，而是要实现收入的公平化，实现中低收入群体、工人阶级的最大化就业。在这一过程中，美国可以纵容甚至主动寻求经济增长的超调，不达目的不松“油门”，希望带动劳动力市场出现紧张和工资上涨。在这一过程中，刺激政策的超量显而易见。然而天下没有免费的午餐，“高压经济学”的副作用之一就是通货膨胀。如果美国经济过热，核心通胀率很有可能在今年底上探到2.5%。\n美国通胀卷土重来的三个动因\n第一，政策力度极大。在推出1.9万亿美元纾困计划后，美国还在加码刺激政策，很可能下半年再通过接近2万亿美元的基建刺激计划。这份计划共有“四大支柱”：一是老基建，如修路架桥等，但这部分仅占方案的1/3；二是新基建，比如电讯、宽带产业；三是绿色能源；四是是教育和培训。\n目前来看，“四大支柱”方案大概率会在10月份正式通过，用预算协调的方式加以实现。关于这一投资计划的效果，从过去几十年美国公共项目的投资情况来看，基本上一半的资金在第一、二年就会被拨款使用。基建计划将成为美国经济复苏的又一剂“强心针”，刺激力度会进一步加大。\n第二，疫苗推广极快。目前美国疫苗推广很快，潜在消费需求有望在夏天重新释放。今夏美国酒店、机票预定已爆满，不亚于中国的“五一”长假。\n第三，消费者“余粮”极多。美国消费者的财富本轮调整没有伤筋动骨，相反，经历了疫情期间数轮财政扶助，美国居民账户上目前有高达2万亿美元的多余储蓄。在这种情况下，只要疫苗到位、生活习惯恢复，2万亿美元的消费能力有望爆发性释放。\n在三大因素的推动下，今年美国经济肯定会出现过热，周期性通胀压力会明显抬升。且美国没有急于退出本轮刺激政策，没有像2009年一样，在失业率维持在10%高点时退出财政政策，在失业率7%时退出货币政策。今年上半年美国经济增速可能会高达9.6%，下半年还会维持在7%的水平，远超过潜在增速。\n货币方面，明年美国经济环比增速可能将接近5%，也是过热的表现。从劳动力市场看，目前美国雇佣成本指数已同比上升2.7%，而生产率难以同步上涨，因此通货膨胀大概率会卷土重来，预计美国核心PCE通胀可能在未来几个月达到2.6%。\n目前，市场普遍认为美联储不会收紧货币政策，所以无须担心通胀上扬，这也是美联储反复给大家吃“定心丸”的结果。但如果通胀超预期出现，不排除美联储最终被迫年底就开始“缩表”，加息也提早。\n长期通胀结构性卷土重来\n不少研究人士主要聚焦于美国本轮刺激是否会大幅推高大宗商品价格、对中国的PPI物价产生成本冲击、进而影响中国的经济和货币政策。这个方向当然值得关注，但它只是本轮通胀大周期的首部曲而已，甚至可能不是下阶段全球和美国通胀的主要来源。\n美国通胀是否上涨，下一步主要看点是其经济思潮左拐、超量刺激，最终能否带动劳动力市场的紧张。目前来看，美国长期、结构性通胀将卷土重来的风险不小：过去20年，美国也采取了一些刺激措施，但最终通胀都没有上涨。但过去20年抑制通胀的三股主导力量正在被逆转。这三股力量分别是贸易全球化、科技平台化、收入分配企业化。我将其总结为“3T”。\n第一，贸易全球化。目前各国都在反思贸易链布局，发达国家5G、半导体、医疗设备等领域的产业链成本可能会上升，全球化趋势正在被逆转。\n第二，科技平台化。过去20年，全球都在纵容和鼓励平台企业、互联网企业发展，认为他们的研发和创新提高了生产率、抑制了物价水平。但“赢家通吃”局面导致贫富差距不断加大，也引发了各国对潜在风险的担忧，重新反思对科技平台公司的监管态度，开始从反垄断、数字税、数字使用监管等问题着手干预。\n第三，收入分配企业化。本轮美国的刺激方案中明确提出要调节收入分配。80年代里根政府实施的小政府、去监管、低税率、拥抱全球化等政策，导致贫富差距不断加大，资本家和企业分得的“蛋糕”越来越多。拜登经济学代表了对小政府角色的纠偏，希望通过给企业加税、提高资本利得税、加强对中低收入群体的转移支付、甚至提高联邦最低工资等措施调节收入分配。\n这三个因素使得美国本轮不仅是“昙花一现”的周期性通胀，而是长期、可持续的结构性通胀。\n中国通胀压力远小于美国\n目前，中国的经济复苏并不均衡，增长主要依靠制造业和出口驱动，国内消费复苏依然较为缓慢。\n外需方面，工业部门增速已超过潜在增速5个百分点，不仅填平了疫情造成的“坑”，而且呈现超潜在增长态势，但这并不能长期持续。疫情期间，其他国家生产链断裂，供给不足，所以中国出口份额不断上升。但未来三、四季度，预计出口会缓慢回归。因为各国生产能力逐渐恢复，消费模式也逐步回归正常，会进行正常的服务消费，而不是在家里网购来自中国的电子产品了。\n这一轮疫情期间，中国出口表现的长期意义在于，中国制造业的韧性通过了考验。去年全球经济由于新冠肺炎疫情冲击而停滞，“已是悬崖百丈冰”，而中国“独有花枝俏”率先复苏，也确保了全球生产供应链的安全港。\n而当前，各大新兴市场由于新冠病毒变种的再次扩散、疫情再次告急，全球供应的复苏重新面临挑战，因而出口订单继续转移至最为稳定可靠的中国供应链。制造业产能利用率已攀升至历史最高位、企业长期贷款的需求稳健复苏、工业机器人、机床设备的进口需求旺盛，这些指标均指向中国制造业投资的复苏。\n鉴于中外在新冠肺炎疫情下的表现对比，夯实了“中国制造”的吸引力，今年的制造业投资增速有望回升，超越疫情前的投资轨迹。\n\n图1：制造业投资信心复苏\n内需方面，目前中国消费增速比疫情前的潜在增速水平至少低2~3个百分点。中美在消费方面的差异非常明显。为什么中国消费恢复缓慢？一是中国并没有采取西方经济体那种直接的转移支付措施，如发支票。二是就业市场的恢复情况未达预期。通过对就业数据进行追踪，线下零售、娱乐、个人护理等消费领域还有很多隐性失业，在线平台招聘增速也仅仅恢复了不到一半。\n因此，对就业和收入不确定的担忧导致消费尚没有完全恢复。预计三、四季度以后，若疫情得到稳步控制，消费的全面恢复才能实现。\n\n图2：消费恢复相对缓慢\n通胀方面，中美之间也存在较大的差距。美国“高压经济学”是不达目的不罢休，无论是周期性通胀、还是长期通胀，可能卷土重来。而中国大宗商品和原材料价格的上涨则主要来自于企业利润的短期承压，它对整体通胀的传导是比较有限的，对货币政策的影响也相对较小。\n近期大宗商品价格过快上涨引发了市场担忧，不可否认，原材料价格上涨将会在短期挤压下游企业利润，特别是部分企业因需要完成在手订单无法及时提价，从而必须承受所有的成本压力，甚至赔本赚吆喝。作为政策应对，中国通过加强引导来减少大宗商品期货炒作，还可通过调整钢、铝、煤炭等行业的减产节奏来提升国内供给。\n但总体而言，这一轮大宗商品价格通胀很大程度上源于全球因素：发达国家政策超量刺激，带动了需求，而供给侧瓶颈仍然掣肘，国外一些主要大宗商品出口国因疫情等原因未能完全恢复其产能。\n但中国面临的通胀压力，特别是核心消费物价的压力是可控的，毕竟中国的商品和服务的供给复苏最为迅速，快于国内需求，需求侧则尚处于缓慢按部就班回升轨迹。这与海外发达国家供给侧远远没有恢复、但需求已率先领跑的供需失衡相比，中国自身的通胀压力有限，预计CPI会温和回升但不会过热，PPI同比增速将于5、6月份触顶到8%之上，之后在下半年步入缓慢下行通道。\n\n图3：中国的通胀并无长期之虞\n政策退出已经实现 下一步保持稳健\n当前已出台的金融监管政策已经基本可以达成今年稳定宏观杠杆率的目标，下一步须把握节奏。\n从去年中央经济工作会到今年的政治局会议之间，多数政策方向比较明确，具体来看，除了财政政策逐步回归常态，减少赤字以外，金融监管和宏观审慎政策主要有三方面：一是系统重要性金融机构要逐渐扩容，提高对部分银行资本充足率的要求、二是对房地产“三道红线”、贷款集中度的宏观审慎要求，三是要加强对地方融资平台发债的监管。\n这些政策基本足够达成今年稳定宏观杠杆率的目标。测算显示，到今年三季度，社会融资总量增速将从去年底的13.5%回落到11.5%、甚至11%。而预计今年名义GDP增速预计在11%以上，社融和名义GDP增速将基本吻合，所以稳定宏观杠杆率的目标靠当前的政策就可以实现。\n监管“风暴”：穿透现象看本质，固本培元\n今年开始的诸多监管“风暴”本质上是着眼长远，固本培元。包括金融科技强监管，平台企业反垄断，和碳达峰行动，似乎让市场有些措手不及，但它们符合过去几年中国树立的经济治理新机制的方向：堵漏洞、补短板、稳杠杆来降低系统性风险，避免金融危机，改善社会问题。\n事实上，近期的监管新举措已是过去六年来第四轮的监管“风暴”。此前三轮分别是2016到2018年的对产能过剩行业的供给侧改革、化解金融风险攻坚战，和环保治理。它们应运而生的宏观背景是，中国经济在2008年后的结构性失衡不断累积，人口红利逐步消散。衡量长期增长可持续性的全要素生产率增速逐年走低，部分行业的监管框架在长年高增长后未能与时俱进。\n因此，自2015年以来的上述数轮监管“风暴”，最终目的是搭建新的监管框架，堵漏洞、补短板、稳杠杆来降低系统性风险。虽然在短期内对市场信心产生了一些担忧，股票等市场资产价格当时有所调整；但是，强监管的“短痛”最终给中国经济带来显著的长期利益：过去数轮监管风暴，最终都提升了中国金融体系的稳健性，使整个宏观杠杆率企稳、债务风险降低、且没有持续挤压私人部门活力，全要素生产率依然保持了平稳。\n譬如，资本外流趋缓后，人民币国际化已经在扩大金融开放、深化国内改革、以及拓展人民币的使用范围的三支柱体系下重新起航；中国金融体系因影子银行清理变得更有韧性，守住了不发生系统性金融风险的底线；而2018年针对互联网、医药、游戏、教育等行业的历轮监管。最终并未抑制其后续的良性发展。\n最近对科技平台企业的监管同样反映了政策层对“短痛”和长远利益的权衡。全球范围内，决策者和研究者都在思考，大型科技平台迅速上升的垄断地位可能已经挤压了中小企业的生存空间，加剧了贫富和劳动者保护等社会问题，并可能在长期或许会抑制创新、威胁金融稳定。因此，此次中国监管的焦点在科技巨头，实际上是引领了全球经济治理的新思潮。\n当然，在这一过程前后，决策层仍可通过加强政策沟通减少给市场带来的不确定性的扰动，进一步增加政策可预见性。一个更为透明的政策环境不仅更能彰显中国着眼长远、固本培元的决心，稳定市场信心，更有助于在逆全球化的思潮下，缓解因为文化隔阂引起的海外对中国政策走向的误读，从而使得中国有望为全球后疫情时代的经济治理机制提供基石，进一步夯实人民币国际化的基础。\n下一步，要注意新政策的节奏。因为一旦进一步收紧监管政策，社融会更大幅度地下跌，则容易超调，对私人部门信心产生影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138203549,"gmtCreate":1621939780881,"gmtModify":1704364780194,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138203549","repostId":"1118239674","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118239674","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1621937890,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118239674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 18:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Some companies may make a huge profit of 10 billion in the first quarter! How profitable is the vaccine industry?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118239674","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"预计全球2021年新冠疫苗销售额有望突破500亿美元。\n\n今日，生物疫苗板块高开，截至收盘，科兴制药飙涨逾11%，仁和药业、未名医药涨停，赛升药业大涨超14%，康泰生物、沃森生物、康希诺-U等跟涨。\n","content":"<p>It is estimated that the global sales of COVID-19 vaccine in 2021 are expected to exceed US $50 billion. Today, the biological vaccine sector opened higher. As of the close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688136\">Sinovac</a>Soared more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000650\">Renhe Pharmaceutical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002581\">Unnamed Medicine</a>Daily limit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300485\">Saisheng Pharmaceutical</a>Soared more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300601\">Kangtai Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a>, CanSino-U, etc. followed suit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f78105d46d2f9369bc879c2844fc482\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news,<b>Yesterday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01177\">China Biopharmaceuticals</a>Announced its first quarter results, revealing that Sinovac Zhongwei's first quarter profit may reach 10 billion yuan. If Sinovac Zhongwei's Q1 profit reaches 10 billion yuan, this will create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">China Pharmaceutical</a>The industry's single-quarter revenue and profit history.</b>Affected by this good news, the biological vaccine sector rose today.</p><p>However, after China Biopharmaceuticals, which announced its results, opened 4.86% higher, it went down all the way. As of the close, it fell 2.87%.</p><p>Another difference from what everyone thinks is that today's surge in Sinovac Pharmaceuticals is not Sinovac Zhongwei, which produces COVID-19 vaccine rights, and there is no equity relationship between them. The former is an innovative biopharmaceutical company mainly engaged in the integration of R&D, production and sales of recombinant protein drugs and microecological preparations, focusing on drug research and development in antiviral, blood, tumor and immunity, degenerative disease and other therapeutic fields.</p><p>The Q1 performance of China Biopharmaceuticals shows that the company's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 16.4% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent was 1.9 billion yuan, an increase of 118.5% over the same period last year. Among them, the profit attributable to associated companies and a joint venture company in the first quarter reached 1.476 billion yuan, which achieved a leap-forward growth compared with only 2.493 million yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>In December last year, China Biopharmaceuticals announced that it would invest US $515 million (approximately HK $4 billion) in Sinovac Zhongwei, holding 15.03% of its equity. Therefore, the market speculates that the profit of China Biopharmaceuticals in the first quarter rose sharply, which may mainly benefit from the profit contribution of Sinovac Zhongwei.<b>Based on China Biopharmaceuticals' profit of nearly 1.5 billion yuan and its 15% equity in Sinovac Zhongwei, Sinovac Zhongwei's Q1 net profit may be nearly 10 billion yuan.</b></p><p>According to the audit materials submitted by Sinovac Zhongwei to the WHO, as of April 1, 2021, the cumulative shipment of Sinovac Zhongwei's COVID-19 inactivated vaccine to 27 countries around the world exceeded 2.7 billion doses.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>Securities speculate that 21Q1 should be around 200 million doses. It is estimated that the net profit of a single inactivated vaccine is 50 yuan, and the net profit rate is about 40-50%. This is consistent with the market's speculation that Sinovac Zhongwei has a net profit of nearly 10 billion.</p><p><b>The demand in COVID-19 vaccine is huge. According to the report of the National Health and Health Commission on the 24th, more than 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been vaccinated nationwide. According to the calculation of 100 yuan per dose, a market of approximately 50 billion yuan has been generated.</b></p><p>According to public data, the cumulative number of vaccinations in COVID-19 vaccine nationwide exceeded 100 million doses on March 27, and exceeded 200 million by April 21, which took 25 days. It took 16 days to vaccinate more than 300 million doses from 200 million doses on May 7, 9 days to exceed 400 million doses on May 16, and only 7 days to exceed 500 million doses on May 23. It can be predicted that the vaccination speed in China will accelerate.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>The outbreak of the epidemic in India has changed the original epidemic expectation. The possible impact of Indian and South African mutant strains on the immune efficacy of existing vaccines makes vaccination not limited to one time, but a large variety that needs to be vaccinated regularly. In addition, the European Union will open the \"New Crown Pass\" on July 1. It is expected that other countries will gradually implement similar \"New Crown Passes\" and gradually open up free movement in some areas and around the world. Sales in COVID-19 vaccine are sustainable. The demand for vaccines is expected to continue to increase in the future.</b></p><p>Since December last year, the UAE became the first country to approve Chinese-made COVID-19 vaccine, Sinopharm Zhongsheng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SVA\">Sinovac Biotech</a>And CanSino's vaccines began to arrive in overseas markets. By the end of the first quarter of this year, China had exported vaccines to 43 countries, with an export volume of 11.9 billion yuan, far exceeding that of last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91032d4da2d6484fd56120d752caff02\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Zhiyan Consulting</p><p>The vaccine industry continues to be hot. The biological vaccine index has soared sharply since 2019. The increase in 2020 was 111%. After the outbreak of the epidemic, based on COVID-19 vaccine logic, the index maintained an upward trend, reaching its peak in July and August. After that, with the approval of COVID-19 vaccine and changes in sales expectations, there was a substantial correction, and the valuation returned to a relatively reasonable range, and the recent trend has rebounded again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/219efc61acdafe285f5aa0f13ad35eea\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In 2021, COVID-19 vaccine companies will enter a period of performance realization, and many institutions are optimistic about the vaccine industry. It is estimated that global COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021 are expected to exceed US $50 billion.</b></p><p>Currently, with the industry dividend period, the stock prices of companies related to the vaccine industry have begun to shine. 100 billion market capitalization leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a>The daily limit has been 36 times in the past year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>, Watson Bio's stock price has repeatedly hit record highs.</p><p>In addition, the revenue of related companies in the vaccine industry chain has increased significantly. For example, mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of non-PVC soft bags, glass bottles for large infusions, supporting pharmaceutical packaging materials, medical devices and other products<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300110\">Huaren Pharmaceutical</a>, the 2020 annual report shows that the company achieved operating income of 1.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 94.624 million yuan, an increase of 124.94% over the same period last year, and both revenue and profit reached the best in history.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some companies may make a huge profit of 10 billion in the first quarter! How profitable is the vaccine industry?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome companies may make a huge profit of 10 billion in the first quarter! How profitable is the vaccine industry?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 18:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is estimated that the global sales of COVID-19 vaccine in 2021 are expected to exceed US $50 billion. Today, the biological vaccine sector opened higher. As of the close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688136\">Sinovac</a>Soared more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000650\">Renhe Pharmaceutical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002581\">Unnamed Medicine</a>Daily limit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300485\">Saisheng Pharmaceutical</a>Soared more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300601\">Kangtai Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a>, CanSino-U, etc. followed suit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f78105d46d2f9369bc879c2844fc482\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news,<b>Yesterday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01177\">China Biopharmaceuticals</a>Announced its first quarter results, revealing that Sinovac Zhongwei's first quarter profit may reach 10 billion yuan. If Sinovac Zhongwei's Q1 profit reaches 10 billion yuan, this will create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">China Pharmaceutical</a>The industry's single-quarter revenue and profit history.</b>Affected by this good news, the biological vaccine sector rose today.</p><p>However, after China Biopharmaceuticals, which announced its results, opened 4.86% higher, it went down all the way. As of the close, it fell 2.87%.</p><p>Another difference from what everyone thinks is that today's surge in Sinovac Pharmaceuticals is not Sinovac Zhongwei, which produces COVID-19 vaccine rights, and there is no equity relationship between them. The former is an innovative biopharmaceutical company mainly engaged in the integration of R&D, production and sales of recombinant protein drugs and microecological preparations, focusing on drug research and development in antiviral, blood, tumor and immunity, degenerative disease and other therapeutic fields.</p><p>The Q1 performance of China Biopharmaceuticals shows that the company's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 16.4% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent was 1.9 billion yuan, an increase of 118.5% over the same period last year. Among them, the profit attributable to associated companies and a joint venture company in the first quarter reached 1.476 billion yuan, which achieved a leap-forward growth compared with only 2.493 million yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>In December last year, China Biopharmaceuticals announced that it would invest US $515 million (approximately HK $4 billion) in Sinovac Zhongwei, holding 15.03% of its equity. Therefore, the market speculates that the profit of China Biopharmaceuticals in the first quarter rose sharply, which may mainly benefit from the profit contribution of Sinovac Zhongwei.<b>Based on China Biopharmaceuticals' profit of nearly 1.5 billion yuan and its 15% equity in Sinovac Zhongwei, Sinovac Zhongwei's Q1 net profit may be nearly 10 billion yuan.</b></p><p>According to the audit materials submitted by Sinovac Zhongwei to the WHO, as of April 1, 2021, the cumulative shipment of Sinovac Zhongwei's COVID-19 inactivated vaccine to 27 countries around the world exceeded 2.7 billion doses.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>Securities speculate that 21Q1 should be around 200 million doses. It is estimated that the net profit of a single inactivated vaccine is 50 yuan, and the net profit rate is about 40-50%. This is consistent with the market's speculation that Sinovac Zhongwei has a net profit of nearly 10 billion.</p><p><b>The demand in COVID-19 vaccine is huge. According to the report of the National Health and Health Commission on the 24th, more than 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been vaccinated nationwide. According to the calculation of 100 yuan per dose, a market of approximately 50 billion yuan has been generated.</b></p><p>According to public data, the cumulative number of vaccinations in COVID-19 vaccine nationwide exceeded 100 million doses on March 27, and exceeded 200 million by April 21, which took 25 days. It took 16 days to vaccinate more than 300 million doses from 200 million doses on May 7, 9 days to exceed 400 million doses on May 16, and only 7 days to exceed 500 million doses on May 23. It can be predicted that the vaccination speed in China will accelerate.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>The outbreak of the epidemic in India has changed the original epidemic expectation. The possible impact of Indian and South African mutant strains on the immune efficacy of existing vaccines makes vaccination not limited to one time, but a large variety that needs to be vaccinated regularly. In addition, the European Union will open the \"New Crown Pass\" on July 1. It is expected that other countries will gradually implement similar \"New Crown Passes\" and gradually open up free movement in some areas and around the world. Sales in COVID-19 vaccine are sustainable. The demand for vaccines is expected to continue to increase in the future.</b></p><p>Since December last year, the UAE became the first country to approve Chinese-made COVID-19 vaccine, Sinopharm Zhongsheng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SVA\">Sinovac Biotech</a>And CanSino's vaccines began to arrive in overseas markets. By the end of the first quarter of this year, China had exported vaccines to 43 countries, with an export volume of 11.9 billion yuan, far exceeding that of last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91032d4da2d6484fd56120d752caff02\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Zhiyan Consulting</p><p>The vaccine industry continues to be hot. The biological vaccine index has soared sharply since 2019. The increase in 2020 was 111%. After the outbreak of the epidemic, based on COVID-19 vaccine logic, the index maintained an upward trend, reaching its peak in July and August. After that, with the approval of COVID-19 vaccine and changes in sales expectations, there was a substantial correction, and the valuation returned to a relatively reasonable range, and the recent trend has rebounded again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/219efc61acdafe285f5aa0f13ad35eea\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In 2021, COVID-19 vaccine companies will enter a period of performance realization, and many institutions are optimistic about the vaccine industry. It is estimated that global COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021 are expected to exceed US $50 billion.</b></p><p>Currently, with the industry dividend period, the stock prices of companies related to the vaccine industry have begun to shine. 100 billion market capitalization leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a>The daily limit has been 36 times in the past year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>, Watson Bio's stock price has repeatedly hit record highs.</p><p>In addition, the revenue of related companies in the vaccine industry chain has increased significantly. For example, mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of non-PVC soft bags, glass bottles for large infusions, supporting pharmaceutical packaging materials, medical devices and other products<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300110\">Huaren Pharmaceutical</a>, the 2020 annual report shows that the company achieved operating income of 1.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 94.624 million yuan, an increase of 124.94% over the same period last year, and both revenue and profit reached the best in history.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e474d690ea02c536f0fd4c03fc3ddef","relate_stocks":{"300142":"沃森生物","300485":"赛升药业","300601":"康泰生物","688136":"科兴制药","688185":"康希诺","002581":"ST未名","000650":"仁和药业"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118239674","content_text":"预计全球2021年新冠疫苗销售额有望突破500亿美元。\n\n今日，生物疫苗板块高开，截至收盘，科兴制药飙涨逾11%，仁和药业、未名医药涨停，赛升药业大涨超14%，康泰生物、沃森生物、康希诺-U等跟涨。\n\n消息面上，昨日中国生物制药公布了一季报业绩，透露科兴中维一季度利润或达100亿元，如果科兴中维Q1盈利达百亿，这将创造中国医药产业的单季度营收和利润历史记录。受此利好消息影响，今日生物疫苗板块行情上涨。\n然而，公布业绩的中国生物制药高开4.86%后，一路走低，截至收盘，跌2.87%。\n另与大家认为的不同的是，今日大涨科兴制药并不是生产新冠疫苗的科兴中维，他们之间也并无任何股权关系。前者是一家主要从事重组蛋白药物和微生态制剂的研发、生产、销售一体化的创新型生物制药企业，专注于抗病毒、血液、肿瘤与免疫、退行性疾病等治疗领域的药物研发。\n中国生物制药Q1业绩显示，公司营收72亿元，较去年同期增长约16.4%；归母净利润19亿元，较去年同期增长118.5%。其中，首季应占联营公司及一家合营公司盈利达到14.76亿元，相比上年同期仅249.3万元实现了跨越式增长。\n去年12月份，中国生物制药宣布向科兴中维出资5.15亿美元(约40亿港元)，持有其15.03%权益。因此，市场推测中国生物制药首季盈利大升，或主要受惠科兴中维利润贡献。根据中国生物制药近15亿元盈利，以及在科兴中维的15%权益计算，科兴中维Q1净利润或近100亿。\n根据科兴中维向 WHO递交的审计材料，截止21年4月1日，科兴中维新冠灭活疫苗向全球27个国家累计发货量超27亿剂，国泰君安证券推测21Q1应该在2亿剂左右，测算灭活疫苗单支净利润在50元，净利率约40-50%，这与市场推测科兴中维近100亿净利润想符合。\n新冠疫苗需求量巨大，根据国家卫健委24日通报，全国新冠疫苗接种超过5亿剂次。按照每剂100元计算，大约产生了500亿元市场。\n根据公开数据，3月27日全国新冠疫苗累计接种突破1亿剂次，至4月21日突破2亿，用了25天。从2亿剂次到5月7日接种超过3亿剂次用了16天，到5月16日突破4亿剂次用了9天时间，再到23日突破5亿剂次则只用了7天时间。可以预测，中国疫苗接种速度还将加快。\n此外，印度疫情爆发，使原有的疫情预期发生改变。印度、南非变异株等对现有疫苗免疫效力可能产生的影响，使疫苗接种可能不仅限于一次，而是需要定期接种的大品种。另欧盟将在7月1日开通“新冠通行证”，预计其他国家也将在随后逐步实行类似的“新冠通行证”逐步开放部分地区直至全球的自由流动，新冠疫苗销售具备持续性。预计未来疫苗需求量还将继续增加。\n自去年12月，阿联酋成为第一个批准中国产新冠疫苗的国家后，国药中生、科兴生物和康希诺的疫苗开始运抵海外市场。今年一季度末时，中国已向 43 个国家出口了疫苗，出口额达到 119 亿元，远超去年全年。\n\n图源：智妍咨询\n疫苗行业热度不减。2019年以来生物疫苗指数大幅飙升。2020年涨幅为111%。疫情爆发后，基于新冠疫苗逻辑，指数维持上涨走势，7、8月份达到峰值。之后随新冠疫苗获批及销售预期变动，出现大幅度回调，估值重回相对合理区间，近期走势重新回升。\n\n2021年新冠疫苗企业进入业绩兑现期，多家机构对疫苗行业持乐观态度，预计全球2021年新冠疫苗销售额有望突破500亿美元。\n当前，伴随行业红利期，疫苗行业相关公司股价已经开始大放异彩。千亿市值龙头万泰生物近一年内涨停36次；复星医药、沃森生物股价屡创历史新高。\n此外，疫苗产业产业链上的相关公司营收大增。比如主要从事非PVC软袋、玻瓶大输液、配套医药包材、医疗器械等产品的研发、生产与销售的华仁药业，2020年年报显示，公司实现营业收入为16.16亿元，同比增长10.56%；实现归母净利润9462.4万元，较上年同期增长124.94%，营收利润双双达到历史最佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300142":0.9,"300485":0.9,"300601":0.9,"688136":0.9,"688185":0.9,"002581":0.9,"000650":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138203683,"gmtCreate":1621939767742,"gmtModify":1704364779863,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138203683","repostId":"1169575898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169575898","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1621938896,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169575898?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 18:34","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"What impact will CATL's sodium batteries have on the market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169575898","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"钠离子电池是对锂离子电池体系的辅助补充。\n\n宁德时代董事长曾毓群对外透露，宁德时代将于2021年7月前后发布钠电池。5月24日，宁德时代股价上涨3.3%，今天继续收涨2%。\n\n在价格方面，由于钠电池系","content":"<p>Sodium-ion battery is an auxiliary supplement to lithium-ion battery system.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Chairman Zeng Yuqun revealed that CATL will release sodium batteries around July 2021. On May 24, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's stock price rose 3.3% and continued to close up 2% today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c31723c61d95e1f479842adffa242fb2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p>In terms of price, due to the new launch of sodium batteries, the price may be more expensive than lithium batteries.</p><p>From the perspective of specific material applications, CATL sodium-ion batteries have undergone significant changes in positive and negative electrodes, electrolytes, current collectors, etc.; In terms of manufacturing process, the original production line can still be used; Sodium-ion batteries have higher runaway temperatures than lithium-ion batteries, so they are safer, but they are more prone to passivation and oxidation problems.</p><p>Although sodium-ion batteries are not the latest technology, their current development lags behind lithium-ion batteries. The cost of large-scale batteries will reach 0.2-0.3 yuan/wh, and the current single energy density is 120wh/kg (the ceiling can reach 200wh/kg), the current number of cycles is 3,000. Therefore, this technology path will mainly target markets such as energy storage, base stations, low-speed vehicles, and low-end passenger cars in the future.</p><p>The market has mixed reviews on the application of this technology path. However, it is expected to alleviate the operating pressure of CATL in the short term; In the long run, its performance and cost advantages may organically impact the existing power battery market structure.</p><p><b>Commodity prices rise, gross profit margins are impacted</b></p><p>Some analysts said that CATL announced the launch of sodium batteries at this time, which was related to supply chain security.</p><p>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is a leading player in domestic power batteries. Whether it is ternary lithium or lithium iron phosphate battery technology routes, it currently ranks first in China's market share.</p><p>However, the rising price of lithium raw materials is impacting the profit margins of power battery companies.</p><p>Since the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks of various countries, led by the Federal Reserve, have released a huge amount of money. In just one year, the Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet by about 3.7 trillion US dollars, exceeding the sum of the last round of financial crises. As of April this year, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have expanded their balance sheets by US $3.9 trillion and US $1.2 trillion respectively during the same period, which is equivalent to recreating a pre-epidemic Federal Reserve.</p><p>With the accelerated popularization of vaccines, the demand of developed countries such as bottom out and Europe and the United States has recovered rapidly in the global economy. However, the recovery of third-party international supply capacity has been inconsistent, so commodities have set off waves of price increases since the beginning of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Bullish on copper, crude oil, natural gas and aluminum, with commodities expected to rise 6.8%.</p><p>Against this background, the lithium battery industry has also ushered in a wave of price increases. As of May 7, the average price of metallic lithium has increased by 20.6% this year, the average price of spodumene concentrate has increased by 46.28%, lithium carbonate has increased by more than 71.87%, and lithium hydroxide has increased by 84.1%.</p><p>It can be seen from the above data that lithium hydroxide has the most obvious increase. Obviously, in addition to excess liquidity, lithium hydroxide also has supply and demand reasons.</p><p>On the demand side, the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials has increased by 45.8% compared with the same period last year, while the price of high-nickel ternary cathode materials has only increased by 5.4% compared with the same period last year. The cost advantage of the former over ternary cathode materials is shrinking, and lithium hydroxide is the latter. Demand for one of the important raw materials has strengthened. In terms of inventory, driven by demand, the inventory of lithium hydroxide continued to decline after March this year. In addition, affected by the epidemic, the production capacity and supply of lithium raw material countries are unstable. Previously, Chile, the world's second largest lithium supplier, was closed, which significantly affected China's imports of lithium raw materials in May.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>It is estimated that the demand of the lithium industry in 2021 will be 430,000 to 520,000 tons, and the maximum supply release will be 540,000 tons. The supply and demand of the lithium industry will be tightly balanced in 2021.</p><p>Strong demand is coupled with contracting supply, so the price of lithium hydroxide continues to rise.</p><p>Under this circumstance, the problem of pressure on the gross profit margin of power battery manufacturers has emerged, and the cake and bargaining power of the industrial chain have begun to shift upstream. Since CATL may not have locked in the high-quality lithium supply chain before, the announcement of the sodium battery plan at this time can not only reduce lithium demand and suppress the price of lithium raw materials; On the other hand, it can also avoid unilateral betting, turn passivity into initiative, and open the growth curve of new technology routes.</p><p><b>What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">Guotai Junan</a>Securities stated that 70% of my country's lithium resources need to be imported, and sodium-ion batteries are the support and guarantee for lithium-ion batteries. The development of sodium-ion batteries is a good supplement to the ternary high-nickel technology route.</p><p>In addition, Cathay Pacific also stated that the current progress speed of sodium-ion batteries should reach a technical level of about 14 years of lithium-ion batteries, including cycle life, energy density, and rate performance. With the matching of raw materials, positive electrode materials, negative electrode materials and electrolytes, it may take about 3 years to actually apply on a large scale, and it is cheaper than iron phosphate cone batteries. According to the speed promoted by CATL, it will take about 2 to 3 years. time.</p><p>In view of the advantages of cheaper price expectations and higher energy density, lead-acid batteries currently used in low-speed electric vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles will be threatened, and even the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries may be further suppressed.</p><p>But at present, it seems that the sodium battery route has obvious shortcomings, so as the mainstream technology path of new energy vehicle power batteries, there is still a long way to go. As a leading company with more than 70 billion yuan in cash, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is relatively comfortable in this respect. Therefore, except for Ningde's investment, it is estimated that no company dares to put its treasure on sodium batteries. The entire industrial chain is a big problem.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>It is believed that sodium-ion batteries are not a new technology. Related research started earlier and has been applied in practice. There is no so-called \"breakthrough\" innovation, but more an iteration of technology. The energy density of sodium batteries (generally less than 120Wh/kg) is significantly lower than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries (160Wh/kg) and ternary batteries, and it has a low degree of matching with the demand for new energy vehicle batteries. There is no possibility of replacing lithium batteries as the mainstream technology in the power field.</p><p>There is no significant advantage in the actual production cost of sodium batteries at present. Although the use of relatively cheap metals can reduce raw material costs, low energy density means more auxiliary materials and manufacturing costs. From the current point of view, the substitution of sodium batteries for lithium batteries is actually very weak. Considering that sodium reserves are richer than lithium, we should pay attention to the strategic significance of sodium batteries as technical reserves to ensure energy security, but their commercial value should not be overestimated.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What impact will CATL's sodium batteries have on the market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat impact will CATL's sodium batteries have on the market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 18:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Sodium-ion battery is an auxiliary supplement to lithium-ion battery system.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Chairman Zeng Yuqun revealed that CATL will release sodium batteries around July 2021. On May 24, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's stock price rose 3.3% and continued to close up 2% today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c31723c61d95e1f479842adffa242fb2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p>In terms of price, due to the new launch of sodium batteries, the price may be more expensive than lithium batteries.</p><p>From the perspective of specific material applications, CATL sodium-ion batteries have undergone significant changes in positive and negative electrodes, electrolytes, current collectors, etc.; In terms of manufacturing process, the original production line can still be used; Sodium-ion batteries have higher runaway temperatures than lithium-ion batteries, so they are safer, but they are more prone to passivation and oxidation problems.</p><p>Although sodium-ion batteries are not the latest technology, their current development lags behind lithium-ion batteries. The cost of large-scale batteries will reach 0.2-0.3 yuan/wh, and the current single energy density is 120wh/kg (the ceiling can reach 200wh/kg), the current number of cycles is 3,000. Therefore, this technology path will mainly target markets such as energy storage, base stations, low-speed vehicles, and low-end passenger cars in the future.</p><p>The market has mixed reviews on the application of this technology path. However, it is expected to alleviate the operating pressure of CATL in the short term; In the long run, its performance and cost advantages may organically impact the existing power battery market structure.</p><p><b>Commodity prices rise, gross profit margins are impacted</b></p><p>Some analysts said that CATL announced the launch of sodium batteries at this time, which was related to supply chain security.</p><p>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is a leading player in domestic power batteries. Whether it is ternary lithium or lithium iron phosphate battery technology routes, it currently ranks first in China's market share.</p><p>However, the rising price of lithium raw materials is impacting the profit margins of power battery companies.</p><p>Since the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks of various countries, led by the Federal Reserve, have released a huge amount of money. In just one year, the Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet by about 3.7 trillion US dollars, exceeding the sum of the last round of financial crises. As of April this year, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have expanded their balance sheets by US $3.9 trillion and US $1.2 trillion respectively during the same period, which is equivalent to recreating a pre-epidemic Federal Reserve.</p><p>With the accelerated popularization of vaccines, the demand of developed countries such as bottom out and Europe and the United States has recovered rapidly in the global economy. However, the recovery of third-party international supply capacity has been inconsistent, so commodities have set off waves of price increases since the beginning of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Bullish on copper, crude oil, natural gas and aluminum, with commodities expected to rise 6.8%.</p><p>Against this background, the lithium battery industry has also ushered in a wave of price increases. As of May 7, the average price of metallic lithium has increased by 20.6% this year, the average price of spodumene concentrate has increased by 46.28%, lithium carbonate has increased by more than 71.87%, and lithium hydroxide has increased by 84.1%.</p><p>It can be seen from the above data that lithium hydroxide has the most obvious increase. Obviously, in addition to excess liquidity, lithium hydroxide also has supply and demand reasons.</p><p>On the demand side, the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials has increased by 45.8% compared with the same period last year, while the price of high-nickel ternary cathode materials has only increased by 5.4% compared with the same period last year. The cost advantage of the former over ternary cathode materials is shrinking, and lithium hydroxide is the latter. Demand for one of the important raw materials has strengthened. In terms of inventory, driven by demand, the inventory of lithium hydroxide continued to decline after March this year. In addition, affected by the epidemic, the production capacity and supply of lithium raw material countries are unstable. Previously, Chile, the world's second largest lithium supplier, was closed, which significantly affected China's imports of lithium raw materials in May.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>It is estimated that the demand of the lithium industry in 2021 will be 430,000 to 520,000 tons, and the maximum supply release will be 540,000 tons. The supply and demand of the lithium industry will be tightly balanced in 2021.</p><p>Strong demand is coupled with contracting supply, so the price of lithium hydroxide continues to rise.</p><p>Under this circumstance, the problem of pressure on the gross profit margin of power battery manufacturers has emerged, and the cake and bargaining power of the industrial chain have begun to shift upstream. Since CATL may not have locked in the high-quality lithium supply chain before, the announcement of the sodium battery plan at this time can not only reduce lithium demand and suppress the price of lithium raw materials; On the other hand, it can also avoid unilateral betting, turn passivity into initiative, and open the growth curve of new technology routes.</p><p><b>What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">Guotai Junan</a>Securities stated that 70% of my country's lithium resources need to be imported, and sodium-ion batteries are the support and guarantee for lithium-ion batteries. The development of sodium-ion batteries is a good supplement to the ternary high-nickel technology route.</p><p>In addition, Cathay Pacific also stated that the current progress speed of sodium-ion batteries should reach a technical level of about 14 years of lithium-ion batteries, including cycle life, energy density, and rate performance. With the matching of raw materials, positive electrode materials, negative electrode materials and electrolytes, it may take about 3 years to actually apply on a large scale, and it is cheaper than iron phosphate cone batteries. According to the speed promoted by CATL, it will take about 2 to 3 years. time.</p><p>In view of the advantages of cheaper price expectations and higher energy density, lead-acid batteries currently used in low-speed electric vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles will be threatened, and even the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries may be further suppressed.</p><p>But at present, it seems that the sodium battery route has obvious shortcomings, so as the mainstream technology path of new energy vehicle power batteries, there is still a long way to go. As a leading company with more than 70 billion yuan in cash, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is relatively comfortable in this respect. Therefore, except for Ningde's investment, it is estimated that no company dares to put its treasure on sodium batteries. The entire industrial chain is a big problem.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>It is believed that sodium-ion batteries are not a new technology. Related research started earlier and has been applied in practice. There is no so-called \"breakthrough\" innovation, but more an iteration of technology. The energy density of sodium batteries (generally less than 120Wh/kg) is significantly lower than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries (160Wh/kg) and ternary batteries, and it has a low degree of matching with the demand for new energy vehicle batteries. There is no possibility of replacing lithium batteries as the mainstream technology in the power field.</p><p>There is no significant advantage in the actual production cost of sodium batteries at present. Although the use of relatively cheap metals can reduce raw material costs, low energy density means more auxiliary materials and manufacturing costs. From the current point of view, the substitution of sodium batteries for lithium batteries is actually very weak. Considering that sodium reserves are richer than lithium, we should pay attention to the strategic significance of sodium batteries as technical reserves to ensure energy security, but their commercial value should not be overestimated.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983e0432c72ee1117f6c5b8a19ed6e25","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169575898","content_text":"钠离子电池是对锂离子电池体系的辅助补充。\n\n宁德时代董事长曾毓群对外透露，宁德时代将于2021年7月前后发布钠电池。5月24日，宁德时代股价上涨3.3%，今天继续收涨2%。\n\n在价格方面，由于钠电池系新推出，价格可能比锂电池贵。\n从具体材料应用上看，宁德时代钠离子电池在正负极、电解液、集流体等方面都有显著变化；制造工艺方面仍可以沿用原有生产线；钠离子电池失控温度高于锂离子电池，因此更加安全，但更容易出现钝化、氧化的问题。\n钠离子电池尽管不是最新的技术，但目前发展滞后于锂离子电池，大规模化电芯成本将达到0.2-0.3元/wh，目前单体能量密度120wh/kg（天花板能够做到200wh/kg），目前循环次数在3000次。因此，该技术路径在未来主要面向储能、基站、低速车、低端乘用车等市场。\n市场对这一技术路径的应用褒贬不一。但短期内有望缓解宁德时代经营压力；长期来看，其性能、成本优势，有机可能冲击现有动力电池市场格局。\n商品价格上涨，毛利率受冲击\n有分析人士称，宁德时代在此时宣布推出钠电池，与供应链安全有关。\n宁德时代是国内动力电池龙头玩家，无论在三元锂还是磷酸铁锂电池技术路线上，目前在中国市占率都稳坐第一。\n但锂原料涨价，正在冲击动力电池公司利润率。\n新冠疫情以来，以美联储为首的各国央行释放出天量货币，美联储仅一年时间就累计扩表约3.7万亿美元，超过上一轮金融危机的总和。截至今年4月，欧洲央行和日本央行，同期分别累计扩表3.9万亿美元和1.2万亿美元，等于再造了一个疫情前的美联储。\n在疫苗的加速普及下，全球经济触底反弹，欧美等发达国家的需求迅速恢复，但第三方国际的供给能力恢复不一致，于是大宗商品年初以来掀起一波波涨价潮。高盛看涨铜、原油、天然气和铝，预计大宗商品将上涨6.8%。\n在这样的大背景下，锂电池行业也迎来了涨价潮。截至5月7日，今年以来金属锂均价上涨20.6%，锂辉石精矿均价上涨46.28%，碳酸锂上涨超71.87%，氢氧化锂涨幅达84.1%。\n从上述数据可以看出氢氧化锂涨幅最为明显，显然除了流动性过剩原因，氢氧化锂还有供求方面的原因。\n需求方面，磷酸铁锂正极材料价格较去年同期已上涨45.8%，而高镍三元正极材料价格较去年同期仅上涨5.4%，前者相比三元的成本优势在不断缩小，氢氧化锂作为后者重要原料之一需求走强。库存方面，受需求拉动，氢氧化锂今年3月后库存持续下行。另外，受疫情影响，锂原料国的产能供应不稳定。此前，全球第二大锂供应国智利封国，这显著影响5月份中国锂原料进口。\n国泰君安预计，2021年锂行业需求量为43万~52万吨，供给最大释放量为54万吨，2021年锂行业供需紧平衡。\n需求旺盛叠加供应收缩，因此氢氧化锂价格持续上行。\n在此情况下，动力电池厂商毛利率承压问题涌现，产业链蛋糕和议价权开始向上游转移。由于宁德时代此前可能没有锁定优质锂供应链，因此此时公布钠电池计划，不仅可以减少锂需求，压制锂原料价格；另一方面也可以避免单方面下注，化被动为主动，开启新技术路线增长曲线。\n对市场影响几何？\n国泰君安证券表示，我国锂资源70%都需要进口，钠离子电池是对锂离子电池的支撑和保障。发展钠离子电池是三元高镍技术路线的很好补充。\n此外国泰同时表示，目前钠离子电池进展的速度应该达到了14年左右的锂离子电池的一个技术水平，包括循环寿命，能量密度，倍率性能。随着原材料、正极材料、负极材料和电解液配合配套上去，可能3年左右时间会真正应用到规模上去，而且比磷酸铁锥电池要便宜，按照宁德时代推的速度，大概需要2~3年的时间。\n鉴于更便宜的价格预期、更高的能量密度等优势，目前用于低速电动车和两轮车领域的铅酸电池将受到威胁，甚至磷酸铁锂电池市场份额都可能被进一步打压。\n但目前看来，钠电池路线存在明显短板，因此作为新能源汽车动力电池主流技术路径，还有很长的路要走。宁德时代作为手握700多亿元现金的龙头企业，在这方面比较游刃有余，因而但除了宁德出钱投资外，估计没有哪家公司敢把宝压在钠电池上，整个产业链配套就是个大问题。\n东北证券认为，钠离子电池并非新技术，相关研究起步较早且已有实际应用，不存在所谓“突破性”创新，更多是技术的迭代。钠电池能量密度（一般不到120Wh/kg）明显低于磷酸铁锂电池（160Wh/kg）与三元电池，与新能源车电池需求匹配度低，暂无替代锂电池成为动力领域主流技术的可能性。\n当前钠电池实际生产成本并无显著优势。尽管采用相对廉价的金属可降低原料成本，但低能量密度意味着更多的辅材和制造成本。站在当前时点来看，钠电池对锂电池的替代性实际上很微弱。考虑到钠储量比锂丰富，应当重视钠电池作为技术储备、保障能源安全的战略意义，但不应过分高估其商业价值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131227845,"gmtCreate":1621864271087,"gmtModify":1704363500511,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/131227845","repostId":"2137153858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137153858","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1621864136,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137153858?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-24 21:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The beautiful picture of crazy coin speculation: from a net profit of 100 million to a loss of 13 million!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137153858","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近日，比特币等加密货币的暴跌不光使得特斯拉投资比特币的收益抹平，此前杀入币圈、一度风光的美图甚至已经亏损。\n作为国内头部影像处理平台，今年3月份美图公司正式宣布入局加密货币。截至4月8日，美图已分3次","content":"<p>Recently, the plunge in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin has not only made<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The income from investing in Bitcoin has been smoothed out, and Meitu, which had entered the currency circle before and was once famous, has even lost money.</p><p>As a domestic head image processing platform, in March this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01357\">Meitu Corporation</a>Officially announced the entry into cryptocurrency. As of April 8, Meitu has accumulated net purchases of cryptocurrencies worth approximately US $100 million in three installments, including 940.885 Bitcoin and 31,000 Ethereum.</p><p>On the evening of April 8, Meitu purchased 175.67798279 units of Bitcoin for a total consideration of approximately US $10 million. Previously, on March 17, Meitu purchased 16,000 units of Ethereum and 386.08581655 units of Bitcoin through its wholly-owned subsidiary Miracle Vision, with total considerations of US $28.4 million and US $21.6 million respectively. On March 5, Meitu had purchased 15,000 units of Ethereum and 379.1214267 units of Bitcoin in open market transactions. At that time, the total consideration for the two cryptocurrencies was approximately US $22.1 million and US $17.9 million respectively. How crazy is Meitu speculating in coins? It is understood that the above-mentioned cryptocurrency investment planning funds are almost equal to the annual gross profit of Meitu last year. According to its 2020 annual performance report, at the end of 2020, Meitu's cash and cash equivalents were approximately 1.1 billion yuan.</p><p>On April 13, the cryptocurrency market was boiling, with Bitcoin breaking through the $63,000 mark and Ethereum breaking through $2,200. Calculated by Times Finance, these three investments of Meitu Company,<b>At one point, it brought it a floating profit of nearly US $27.4862 million (about 177 million yuan).</b></p><p>Meitu's adjusted net profit for the full year of 2020 is only 60.9 million yuan.</p><p>However, no flowers last for a hundred days,<b>According to cnBeta, the recent plunge in Bitcoin has turned Meitu from profit to loss, with a current floating loss of US $2.02 million, or about 13 million yuan.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc22be4d5b721afb31c8f85bf3ab395d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to Meitu's previous announcement, the company's investment in Bitcoin is based on the recognition that cryptocurrency has sufficient room for appreciation, and plans to allocate part of its cash reserves to cryptocurrency to diversify the risk of holding cash in fund management.</p><p>It is worth noting that Meitu loves to speculate in coins and its founder Cai Wensheng has something to do with it. It can be said that Cai Wensheng is a loyal supporter of blockchain technology and digital currency.</p><p>Shortly after Meitu first purchased cryptocurrency, Cai Wensheng posted in Moments:</p><p>Meitu continues to deploy the blockchain. This time, it purchased ETH and BTC digital currencies as a value reserve for the long-term development of the blockchain strategy. Someone has to be the first to eat crabs. This should be regarded as the first listed company in Hong Kong to purchase BTC digital currency, and it can also be regarded as the first listed company in the world to use ETH Ethereum as a currency value reserve.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The beautiful picture of crazy coin speculation: from a net profit of 100 million to a loss of 13 million!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe beautiful picture of crazy coin speculation: from a net profit of 100 million to a loss of 13 million!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-24 21:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, the plunge in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin has not only made<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The income from investing in Bitcoin has been smoothed out, and Meitu, which had entered the currency circle before and was once famous, has even lost money.</p><p>As a domestic head image processing platform, in March this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01357\">Meitu Corporation</a>Officially announced the entry into cryptocurrency. As of April 8, Meitu has accumulated net purchases of cryptocurrencies worth approximately US $100 million in three installments, including 940.885 Bitcoin and 31,000 Ethereum.</p><p>On the evening of April 8, Meitu purchased 175.67798279 units of Bitcoin for a total consideration of approximately US $10 million. Previously, on March 17, Meitu purchased 16,000 units of Ethereum and 386.08581655 units of Bitcoin through its wholly-owned subsidiary Miracle Vision, with total considerations of US $28.4 million and US $21.6 million respectively. On March 5, Meitu had purchased 15,000 units of Ethereum and 379.1214267 units of Bitcoin in open market transactions. At that time, the total consideration for the two cryptocurrencies was approximately US $22.1 million and US $17.9 million respectively. How crazy is Meitu speculating in coins? It is understood that the above-mentioned cryptocurrency investment planning funds are almost equal to the annual gross profit of Meitu last year. According to its 2020 annual performance report, at the end of 2020, Meitu's cash and cash equivalents were approximately 1.1 billion yuan.</p><p>On April 13, the cryptocurrency market was boiling, with Bitcoin breaking through the $63,000 mark and Ethereum breaking through $2,200. Calculated by Times Finance, these three investments of Meitu Company,<b>At one point, it brought it a floating profit of nearly US $27.4862 million (about 177 million yuan).</b></p><p>Meitu's adjusted net profit for the full year of 2020 is only 60.9 million yuan.</p><p>However, no flowers last for a hundred days,<b>According to cnBeta, the recent plunge in Bitcoin has turned Meitu from profit to loss, with a current floating loss of US $2.02 million, or about 13 million yuan.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc22be4d5b721afb31c8f85bf3ab395d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to Meitu's previous announcement, the company's investment in Bitcoin is based on the recognition that cryptocurrency has sufficient room for appreciation, and plans to allocate part of its cash reserves to cryptocurrency to diversify the risk of holding cash in fund management.</p><p>It is worth noting that Meitu loves to speculate in coins and its founder Cai Wensheng has something to do with it. It can be said that Cai Wensheng is a loyal supporter of blockchain technology and digital currency.</p><p>Shortly after Meitu first purchased cryptocurrency, Cai Wensheng posted in Moments:</p><p>Meitu continues to deploy the blockchain. This time, it purchased ETH and BTC digital currencies as a value reserve for the long-term development of the blockchain strategy. Someone has to be the first to eat crabs. This should be regarded as the first listed company in Hong Kong to purchase BTC digital currency, and it can also be regarded as the first listed company in the world to use ETH Ethereum as a currency value reserve.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631125\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a44057b4a20ebe6d630712ecfc5dba80","relate_stocks":{"01357":"美图公司"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631125","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137153858","content_text":"近日，比特币等加密货币的暴跌不光使得特斯拉投资比特币的收益抹平，此前杀入币圈、一度风光的美图甚至已经亏损。\n作为国内头部影像处理平台，今年3月份美图公司正式宣布入局加密货币。截至4月8日，美图已分3次累计净购入了价值约1亿美元的加密货币，包括940.885枚比特币和3.1万枚以太坊。\n\n 4月8日晚，美图购买了175.67798279单位的比特币，总对价约为1000万美元。此前在3月17日，美图通过全资子公司Miracle Vision购买了16000单位以太币和386.08581655单位比特币，总对价分别为2840万美元和2160万美元。3月5日，美图公司在公开市场交易中已购买了15000单位的以太币和379.1214267单位的比特币，当时这两种加密货币的总对价分别约为2210万美元和1790万美元。\n\n炒币的美图有多疯狂，据了解，上述的加密货币投资规划资金几乎等于去年美图公司的全年毛利。而根据其2020年年度业绩报告，2020年年底，美图公司的现金及现金等价物为约11亿元人民币。\n4月13日，加密货币市场沸腾，比特币冲破6.3万美元大关，以太坊也突破2200美元。按时代财经计算，美图公司的这三笔投资，一度为它带来将近2748.62万美元（约合1.77亿元人民币）的浮盈。\n美图公司在2020年的全年经调整的净利润也不过6090万元人民币。\n不过，花无百日红，据cnBeta，近期比特币的暴跌，已使美图公司由盈转亏，目前浮亏达202万美元，约合1300万人民币。\n\n根据美图公司此前的公告，公司投资比特币是基于加密货币具有足够的升值空间的认知，并且计划通过将其部分现金储备金分配到加密货币，用作资金管理中分散持有现金的风险。\n值得注意的是，美图爱炒币与其创始人蔡文胜不无关系。可以说，蔡文胜是区块链技术和数字货币的忠实支持者。\n在美图首次购入加密货币后不久，蔡文胜就曾在朋友圈发文表示：\n\n 美图公司继续布局区块链，这次购买ETH、BTC数字货币作为长期发展区块链战略的价值储备。总要有人第一个吃螃蟹。这应该算香港上市公司第一家购买BTC数字货币吧，也算是全球第一家上市公司把ETH以太坊作为货币价值储备。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01357":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130791738,"gmtCreate":1621564155824,"gmtModify":1704359743415,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130791738","repostId":"2136166920","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2136166920","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621563994,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2136166920?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Those big factories who are \"late\" and CEOs who \"leave early\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2136166920","media":"北京商报","summary":"5月20日，字节跳动创始人张一鸣发布内部全员信，宣布卸任CEO一职。字节跳动联合创始人梁汝波将接任成为新CEO。\n张一鸣向后，梁汝波向前。有媒体总结字节跳动有一批冲锋陷阵的大将，而梁汝波或是那个最适合","content":"<p><div>On May 20, Zhang Yiming, founder of ByteDance, issued an internal letter to all employees, announcing his resignation as CEO. ByteDance co-founder Liang Rubo will take over as the new CEO. Zhang Yiming moved backwards and Liang Rubo moved forward. Some media concluded that ByteDance has a group of generals who are taking the lead, and Liang Rubo may be the confidant who is most suitable for managing \"managers\". The future development of ByteDance will unfold between the two in tandem. Zhang Yiming said in an internal letter that he first proposed this idea on a small scale in the company in March this year, and this happened to be the time when Huang Zheng announced his resignation. Maybe it's just a coincidence of timing, but you two...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2021-05-20/doc-ikmyaawc6541679.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"BJSB","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Those big factories who are \"late\" and CEOs who \"leave early\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThose big factories who are \"late\" and CEOs who \"leave early\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">北京商报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 10:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On May 20, Zhang Yiming, founder of ByteDance, issued an internal letter to all employees, announcing his resignation as CEO. ByteDance co-founder Liang Rubo will take over as the new CEO. Zhang Yiming moved backwards and Liang Rubo moved forward. Some media concluded that ByteDance has a group of generals who are taking the lead, and Liang Rubo may be the confidant who is most suitable for managing \"managers\". The future development of ByteDance will unfold between the two in tandem. Zhang Yiming said in an internal letter that he first proposed this idea on a small scale in the company in March this year, and this happened to be the time when Huang Zheng announced his resignation. Maybe it's just a coincidence of timing, but you two...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2021-05-20/doc-ikmyaawc6541679.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2021-05-20/doc-ikmyaawc6541679.shtml\">北京商报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b50ae53ea44ea20fb5890e62e74584","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2021-05-20/doc-ikmyaawc6541679.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2136166920","content_text":"5月20日，字节跳动创始人张一鸣发布内部全员信，宣布卸任CEO一职。字节跳动联合创始人梁汝波将接任成为新CEO。\n张一鸣向后，梁汝波向前。有媒体总结字节跳动有一批冲锋陷阵的大将，而梁汝波或是那个最适合管理“管理者”的心腹之人。字节跳动未来的发展之路，将在两人的一前一后之间展开。\n张一鸣在内部信中称，他最早在公司小范围提议这个想法是今年3月，而这正好是黄峥宣布卸任的时间。或许只是时间上凑巧，但两位创始人的想法却十分相似。\n除了想法相似，两人背后不少故事也雷同。作为正当年的80后创始人，两个人不仅年轻，身后的公司出名趁早，成长极快，实现了外界眼中不可能的可能，在看似已饱和的市场突出重围。\n唯一不同的是，张一鸣比黄铮更急，没等到自己的不惑之年。\n不同于字节跳动对“算法”的重视与成功使用，张一鸣对自己的总结，既不精确还充满了“浪漫”。“浪漫就是想象理论上可能发生但现实中还不存在的有趣的事物。”\n张一鸣心中还有哪些事物有趣？黄峥心里哪些事情放不下？远景规划、长期战略、企业文化，食品科学和生命科学领域的研究……看上去都是，一定又都不是。\n早期的BAT头领，李彦宏和马化腾依然守在一线，刘强东看似卸下多个高管职位，但依然大权在手运筹帷幄，马云退休前经历了漫长的铺垫，选择接班人时也并非一蹴而就。\n“曲折的故事只是读者看起来精彩而已，你要快速发展，不能太曲折。”张一鸣用6年完成了从程序员到 CEO 的系统升级。而卸任CEO的想法到决定，从内部信看，只用了三个月。\n这一届年轻创始人画风变了。他们有自己的思想，但不一定喜欢当意见领袖。他们有一套自己的逻辑，却不一定轻易示人。他们的公司风生水起，但他们自己不怎么喜欢抛头露面。\n有人说他们擅长激流勇退，又或者只是随机应变。字节跳动用了7年成了最有价值的初创公司。而拼多多只用了5年，成为电商里的“今日头条”。他们比上一代互联网大公司用更短的时间触及到了天花板。\n正因为公司成长得快，很多事情比预想来得更早。字节跳动从2017年开始，走向了全球战场，借由TikTok等产品取得了中国互联网公司未曾得到过的成功。如今看来，这份成功喜忧参半，未来依然变数重重。\n在平台反垄断的大潮中，拼多多亦不可能置身事外。虽然未来仍然有增长空间，越来越重的业务，开始让拼多多的想象空间变得有限，激烈的行业竞争，依然游走在规模和效率的层次，\n何尝不是危险。\n进退之间，“早退”的CEO，试图完成社会身份的重新定位，而“迟到”的大厂，将有机会在有限的现实和无限的想象中再次出发。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195494725,"gmtCreate":1621306100067,"gmtModify":1704355497107,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/195494725","repostId":"2136957700","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2136957700","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621305848,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2136957700?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-18 10:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Different from the previous two times, this round of commodity surge is a bit special","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2136957700","media":"智通财经","summary":"与2008年和2011年大宗商品价格反弹不同，近来大宗商品价格持续飙升，但澳大利亚等主要大宗商品出口国的国债收益率和货币波动不大。同样，美联储较为看重的通胀预期指标也与原材料价格走势脱节。\n造成这种现","content":"<p>Unlike the rebound in commodity prices in 2008 and 2011, commodity prices have continued to soar recently, but Treasury Bond yields and currencies in major commodity exporting countries such as Australias have been less volatile. Similarly, the inflation expectation indicator that the Federal Reserve values more is out of touch with the trend of raw material prices.</p><p>The main reason for this phenomenon is the credibility of the central bank. Led by the Federal Reserve, major central banks have indicated that they will keep interest rates low for a long time, believing that high inflation is only temporary. Now that the central bank has promised to maintain the loose policy, this makes investors afraid to rush in the opposite direction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f839f3910dac92f3c0d9b1b1b4cffd1c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Price growth is expected to rise, but remains benign, by the Fed's measure.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Kerry Craig, a global market strategist in Melbourne, said, \"This major change in commodity prices is also due to central bank policies. At present, the ultra-loose monetary policy puts pressure on the exchange rate. Otherwise, the exchange rate will also increase significantly during the commodity rising cycle.</p><p>The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have become indisputable backward currencies, and the fate of these two major currencies depends largely on the commodities consumed by China's economy. Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars have risen less than 0.5% in the past three months. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has soared nearly 5% after the Bank of Canada signaled it could pull back its monetary easing program.</p><p>Last week, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar led the decline in G10 currencies, and the U.S. CPI and PPI data both surprisingly rose. After China released strong PPI data, global inflation expectations further heated. However, after the PPI data was relatively calm, with the 5-year and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling back with the weakening of the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5d54b874e28aec5c9c2de6c3c4312fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Fed's newly launched \"common inflation expectations\" measure is currently hovering around 2%, a level officials hope to see beat expectations for some time. At the same time, the prices of different materials such as copper, cotton, rubber, wood, and semiconductors are also accelerating amid supply disruptions and surging demand.</p><p>This inconsistency between the central bank's actions and economic data reflects that the central bank's economic regulation and control mode is changing in the current era. At present, the Fed is committed to overheating the economy, which is partly upsetting the market because it means that the Fed will change its previous strategy: preemptively curbing inflation.</p><p>The message is being delivered to Australian and New Zealand dollar traders, while for other market participants, hints of monetary policy tightening are giving them reason to flock.</p><p>Stephen Miller, an investment adviser to GSFM in Sydney, said that \"the Bank of Canada and the Norges Bank are the only central banks in the developed world that have made it clear that they are considering exiting easing policies.\" A branch of Canada's CI Financial Corporation said that \"the RBA has been heavily advocating to keep the Australian dollar lower amid surging iron ore prices.\"</p><p>A closer look at the breakeven rate provides further evidence that investors have largely not acted on inflation concerns. The U.S. 10-year breakeven rate has jumped to an eight-year high, but looking at the long-term trend, this does not send a clear message of runaway inflation.</p><p>Cornerstone Macro analysts led by former Federal Reserve official Roberto Perli and others wrote in a May 11 report that if underlying inflation is the trigger, then spot and forward breakeven inflation expectations should be tilted upward. But now the curve is inverted, indicating that the market is betting that inflation is a temporary situation.</p><p>Looking ahead, continued higher raw material prices and hints that salary levels may rise further may begin to affect the effectiveness of the message conveyed by the Federal Reserve, providing impetus for investors to react more.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O39.SI\">OCBC Bank</a>Economist Howie Lee said in a May 11 report that \"the recent new highs in metal prices may be just the beginning.\"</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Different from the previous two times, this round of commodity surge is a bit special</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDifferent from the previous two times, this round of commodity surge is a bit special\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-18 10:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Unlike the rebound in commodity prices in 2008 and 2011, commodity prices have continued to soar recently, but Treasury Bond yields and currencies in major commodity exporting countries such as Australias have been less volatile. Similarly, the inflation expectation indicator that the Federal Reserve values more is out of touch with the trend of raw material prices.</p><p>The main reason for this phenomenon is the credibility of the central bank. Led by the Federal Reserve, major central banks have indicated that they will keep interest rates low for a long time, believing that high inflation is only temporary. Now that the central bank has promised to maintain the loose policy, this makes investors afraid to rush in the opposite direction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f839f3910dac92f3c0d9b1b1b4cffd1c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Price growth is expected to rise, but remains benign, by the Fed's measure.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Kerry Craig, a global market strategist in Melbourne, said, \"This major change in commodity prices is also due to central bank policies. At present, the ultra-loose monetary policy puts pressure on the exchange rate. Otherwise, the exchange rate will also increase significantly during the commodity rising cycle.</p><p>The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have become indisputable backward currencies, and the fate of these two major currencies depends largely on the commodities consumed by China's economy. Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars have risen less than 0.5% in the past three months. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has soared nearly 5% after the Bank of Canada signaled it could pull back its monetary easing program.</p><p>Last week, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar led the decline in G10 currencies, and the U.S. CPI and PPI data both surprisingly rose. After China released strong PPI data, global inflation expectations further heated. However, after the PPI data was relatively calm, with the 5-year and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling back with the weakening of the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5d54b874e28aec5c9c2de6c3c4312fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Fed's newly launched \"common inflation expectations\" measure is currently hovering around 2%, a level officials hope to see beat expectations for some time. At the same time, the prices of different materials such as copper, cotton, rubber, wood, and semiconductors are also accelerating amid supply disruptions and surging demand.</p><p>This inconsistency between the central bank's actions and economic data reflects that the central bank's economic regulation and control mode is changing in the current era. At present, the Fed is committed to overheating the economy, which is partly upsetting the market because it means that the Fed will change its previous strategy: preemptively curbing inflation.</p><p>The message is being delivered to Australian and New Zealand dollar traders, while for other market participants, hints of monetary policy tightening are giving them reason to flock.</p><p>Stephen Miller, an investment adviser to GSFM in Sydney, said that \"the Bank of Canada and the Norges Bank are the only central banks in the developed world that have made it clear that they are considering exiting easing policies.\" A branch of Canada's CI Financial Corporation said that \"the RBA has been heavily advocating to keep the Australian dollar lower amid surging iron ore prices.\"</p><p>A closer look at the breakeven rate provides further evidence that investors have largely not acted on inflation concerns. The U.S. 10-year breakeven rate has jumped to an eight-year high, but looking at the long-term trend, this does not send a clear message of runaway inflation.</p><p>Cornerstone Macro analysts led by former Federal Reserve official Roberto Perli and others wrote in a May 11 report that if underlying inflation is the trigger, then spot and forward breakeven inflation expectations should be tilted upward. But now the curve is inverted, indicating that the market is betting that inflation is a temporary situation.</p><p>Looking ahead, continued higher raw material prices and hints that salary levels may rise further may begin to affect the effectiveness of the message conveyed by the Federal Reserve, providing impetus for investors to react more.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O39.SI\">OCBC Bank</a>Economist Howie Lee said in a May 11 report that \"the recent new highs in metal prices may be just the beginning.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/476958.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59173f284ebbaeca7a7533691a2e3051","relate_stocks":{"161715":"大宗商品","000979.SH":"大宗商品"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/476958.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2136957700","content_text":"与2008年和2011年大宗商品价格反弹不同，近来大宗商品价格持续飙升，但澳大利亚等主要大宗商品出口国的国债收益率和货币波动不大。同样，美联储较为看重的通胀预期指标也与原材料价格走势脱节。\n造成这种现象的最主要原因是央行的信誉。以美联储为首，各大央行表示长期将维持低利率，认为高通胀只是暂时的。既然央行承诺将维持宽松政策，这使得投资者也不敢贸然反向操作。\n\n根据美联储的衡量标准，价格增长预期上升，但仍然是良性的。摩根大通驻墨尔本全球市场策略师Kerry Craig表示，“这次大宗商品价格重大变化也是因为央行政策，目前，超宽松的货币政策使汇率成压，否则，在大宗商品上涨周期，汇率也会有较大涨幅。\n澳元和纽元成为了无可争辩的落后货币，这两种主要货币的命运很大程度上取决于中国经济所消耗的大宗商品。过去三个月里，澳元和纽元都只上涨了不到0.5%。与此同时，加拿大央行暗示可能收回货币宽松计划，加元已飙升近5%。\n上周，澳元、纽元领跌G10货币，美国CPI和PPI数据均意外上扬，在中国公布强劲的PPI数据后，全球通胀预期进一步升温。然而，PPI数据公布后，市场反应相对平静，5年期和10年期国债收益率随美元走弱而回落。\n\n美联储新推出的“共同通胀预期”指标目前正徘徊在2%左右，官员们希望看到这一水平在一段时间内超出预期。与此同时，在供应中断和需求激增的情况下，铜、棉花、橡胶、木材以及半导体等不同材料的价格也在加速上涨。\n这种央行行动和经济数据的不一致折射出当前时代央行经济调控方式正在发生变化。目前美联储致力于让经济过热，这在一定程度上让市场感到不安，因为这意味着美联储将改变以往战略：先发制人抑制通胀。\n这一信息正在传递给澳元和纽元交易员，而对其他市场参与者来说，货币政策收紧的暗示正让他们有理由蜂拥而至。\nGSFM驻悉尼投资顾问Stephen Miller表示，“加拿大央行和挪威央行是发达国家唯一明确表示正在考虑退出宽松政策的央行。”加拿大CI金融公司旗下的一家分支机构表示，“澳大利亚央行一直在大力鼓吹，在铁矿石价格飙升的情况下保持澳元走低。”\n仔细观察盈亏平衡利率，可以进一步证明投资者基本上没有对通胀担忧采取行动。美国10年期盈亏平衡利率已跃升至8年高点，但从长期趋势来看，这并没有发出明显的通胀失控信息。\n美联储前官员Roberto Perli等为首的Cornerstone Macro分析师在5月11日的报告中写道，如果潜在的通货膨胀是触发因素，那么即期和远期的盈亏平衡通胀率预期应该向上倾斜。但现在曲线是倒挂的，说明市场押注通胀是暂时情况。\n展望未来，原材料价格持续走高以及薪资水平可能进一步上涨的暗示可能会开始影响美联储所传达的信息效力，为投资者做出更多反应提供动力。\n华侨银行经济学家Howie Lee在5月11日的报告中表示，“金属价格近期新高可能仅仅是开始”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161715":0.9,"000979.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192732247,"gmtCreate":1621229254889,"gmtModify":1704354291020,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192732247","repostId":"1117477819","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117477819","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621227286,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117477819?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-17 12:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Angel of the Times: A provider of oral invisible orthodontic solutions, passed the hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117477819","media":"瑞恩资本Ryanbe...","summary":"2021年5月16日，香港交易所披露了时代天使科技有限有限公司ANGELALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC.(以下简称“时代天使”) 通过聆讯后的招股书。时代天使于2021年1月29日递表，高盛","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94abc669aabd89ec3252b8571e7c3dd0\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On May 16, 2021, the Hong Kong Exchange disclosed that<b>Time Angel Technology Co., Ltd</b>ANGELALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC. Hereinafter referred to as \"<b>Angel of the Times</b>\") approved the prospectus after the hearing. Times Angel submitted the form on January 29, 2021, with Goldman Sachs and CICC as its joint sponsors.</p><p><b>Angel of the Times</b>, is a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China.</p><p>According to the CIC Consulting report, China's invisible orthodontic solution market is highly concentrated, with the market share of the top two market players approximately 82.4%. Measured by cases achieved in 2020,<b>Angel of the Times</b>The market share reached 41.0%,</p><p>The company helps dentists through the Times Angel invisible orthodontic system, which consists of three parts: (1) digital assisted case evaluation support and orthodontic plan design services, (2) invisible appliances, and (3) cloud service platform iOrtho.</p><p>The company currently sells four invisible appliances, including Times Angel Standard Edition, Times Angel Champion Edition, Times Angel Children Edition and COMFOS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/921b4d76837822eb827ad8104a0003fb\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>During the Track Record Period,<b>Angel of the Times</b>The number of dental practitioners served increased from approximately 11,500 in 2018 to approximately 15,800 in 2019 and to approximately 19,900 in 2020. The number of cases completed by the company increased from approximately 77,700 in 2018 to approximately 120,100 in 2019 and to approximately 137,600 in 2020.</p><p>The prospectus shows that in the past 2018, 2019 and 2020,<b>Angel of the Times</b>The operating income was RMB 488 million, 646 million and 817 million respectively, and the corresponding gross profit margins were 63.8%, 64.6% and 70.4% respectively; The corresponding net profits were RMB 58 million, RMB 68 million and RMB 150 million, respectively.</p>","source":"lsy1570073568970","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Angel of the Times: A provider of oral invisible orthodontic solutions, passed the hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAngel of the Times: A provider of oral invisible orthodontic solutions, passed the hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">瑞恩资本Ryanbe...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-17 12:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94abc669aabd89ec3252b8571e7c3dd0\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On May 16, 2021, the Hong Kong Exchange disclosed that<b>Time Angel Technology Co., Ltd</b>ANGELALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC. Hereinafter referred to as \"<b>Angel of the Times</b>\") approved the prospectus after the hearing. Times Angel submitted the form on January 29, 2021, with Goldman Sachs and CICC as its joint sponsors.</p><p><b>Angel of the Times</b>, is a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China.</p><p>According to the CIC Consulting report, China's invisible orthodontic solution market is highly concentrated, with the market share of the top two market players approximately 82.4%. Measured by cases achieved in 2020,<b>Angel of the Times</b>The market share reached 41.0%,</p><p>The company helps dentists through the Times Angel invisible orthodontic system, which consists of three parts: (1) digital assisted case evaluation support and orthodontic plan design services, (2) invisible appliances, and (3) cloud service platform iOrtho.</p><p>The company currently sells four invisible appliances, including Times Angel Standard Edition, Times Angel Champion Edition, Times Angel Children Edition and COMFOS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/921b4d76837822eb827ad8104a0003fb\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>During the Track Record Period,<b>Angel of the Times</b>The number of dental practitioners served increased from approximately 11,500 in 2018 to approximately 15,800 in 2019 and to approximately 19,900 in 2020. The number of cases completed by the company increased from approximately 77,700 in 2018 to approximately 120,100 in 2019 and to approximately 137,600 in 2020.</p><p>The prospectus shows that in the past 2018, 2019 and 2020,<b>Angel of the Times</b>The operating income was RMB 488 million, 646 million and 817 million respectively, and the corresponding gross profit margins were 63.8%, 64.6% and 70.4% respectively; The corresponding net profits were RMB 58 million, RMB 68 million and RMB 150 million, respectively.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EJr3n2c5X96YpLLvVbCo8Q\">瑞恩资本Ryanbe...</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EJr3n2c5X96YpLLvVbCo8Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117477819","content_text":"2021年5月16日，香港交易所披露了时代天使科技有限有限公司ANGELALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC.(以下简称“时代天使”) 通过聆讯后的招股书。时代天使于2021年1月29日递表，高盛、中金公司为其联席保荐人。\n时代天使，是中国领先的隐形矫治解决方案提供商。\n根据灼识咨询报告，中国的隐形矫治解决方案市场高度集中，前两大市场参与者的市占率约82.4%，按2020年达成案例计量，时代天使的的市场占有率达41.0%，\n公司通过时代天使隐形矫治系统助力牙科医生，其由三部分组成：(1)数字化辅助案例评估支持及矫治方案设计服务，(2)隐形矫治器，及(3)云服务平台iOrtho 。\n公司目前销售四种隐形矫治器，包括时代天使标准版、时代天使冠军版、时代天使儿童版以及COMFOS。\n\n于业绩纪录期，时代天使服务的牙科医生数量由2018年的约11,500位增至2019年的约15,800位，并增至2020年的约19,900位。公司达成案例由2018年的约77,700例增至2019年的约120,100例，并增至2020年的约137,600例。\n招股书显示，在过去的2018年、2019年和2020年，时代天使的营业收入分别为人民币4.88亿、6.46亿和8.17亿元，相应的毛利率分别为63.8%、64.6%、70.4%；相应的净利润分别为人民币0.58亿、0.68亿和1.50亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":183892143,"gmtCreate":1623319422282,"gmtModify":1704200791528,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183892143","repostId":"1141888036","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141888036","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623319167,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141888036?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 17:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141888036","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"美联储可能在8月具备释放缩减QE信号的就业条件。","content":"<p>Author: Xiang Jingshu/Song Xuetao</p><p><b>In the past two months, the liquidity flood of the US dollar has surpassed inflation, fundamentals and policy, and dominated the trend and style of large asset classes.</b></p><p><b>The excess liquidity originated from the flooding of the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department since March this year.</b>The TGA account is the cash balance or general account of the U.S. Treasury Department, which reflects most of the income and expenditure of the U.S. Treasury Department. When the TGA increases (decreases), it will draw (increase) reserves from the banking system. According to the U.S. post-epidemic stimulus bill, the U.S. Treasury Department raised approximately US $4.3 trillion in 2020. However, due to slow allocation, funds were stranded in TGA, leaving TGA with a balance of US $1.4 trillion in early March.</p><p><b>The pressure of TGA flood discharge before August is still there.</b>On February 1, 2021, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced the TGA reduction plan and began to reduce the balance of TGA accounts. It is planned to reduce to $800 billion by the end of March and $500 billion by the end of June, and finally meet the requirements by the end of July. However, as of June 2, TGA's account balance was still 783.2 billion, and the pressure drop rate was slower than planned.</p><p>Figure 1: TGA account balance (USD billion)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df65ca24c84cce91a145e23362ec58b\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Since March, TGA has dropped by about 680 billion yuan, which is equivalent to providing an additional increase of about 8% on the basis of the current deposit balances of all commercial banks.<b>Fed Overnight Reverse Repurchase (O/N RRP) Usage Surges</b>, the absorption capacity of banks is close to saturation. This will put downward (negative interest rate) pressure on short-term interest rates and related asset prices.</p><p>Figure 2: The scale of overnight reverse repurchase in the United States hits a record high (billion US dollars)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d24e160e8fbc24c1406df5e8d6c1990\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Figure 3: The dollar liquidity premium returns to the extremely low level seen during the epidemic last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0d3421217ea7beb0752370706a58c\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>We judge that the inflection point of liquidity of the US dollar will appear in August this year.</b></p><p><b>First, the flood discharge of the TGA account ends at the end of July, and may turn from a decrease to an increase in August.</b></p><p>The debt limit plan will be a turning point for TGA to release liquidity. According to the estimate of the U.S. Treasury Department in May, when the \"debt ceiling\" exemption expires at the end of July, the general account balance of the Treasury Department will be reduced to approximately $450 billion; After that, with the issuance of debt, it will rise to approximately US $750 billion by the end of September, which means that the issuance of bonds by the Ministry of Finance in August and September will bring about a liquidity contraction of US $300 billion. Only by raising the debt ceiling can the U.S. government continue to borrow, otherwise the Treasury Department can only choose to stop issuing Treasury Bond and continue to use TGA accounts and other limited number of \"special measures\" to keep the government's funding supply. The TGA account balance will continue to decline at this time. Once the relevant measures fail to cover the financing needs of the Treasury Department, it may lead to a technical default of the U.S. government and a downgrade of the U.S. debt rating.</p><p><b>Second, the Federal Reserve may have the employment conditions to release the signal of reducing QE in August.</b></p><p>Regarding the labor market, Powell is worried that \"the epidemic will cause long-term scars on the labor market. So far, we have not experienced that level of trauma.\" Powell believes that it will take some time to gradually recover from the imbalance in the labor market caused by the epidemic. Hence<b>The degree of improvement in the labor market is an important signpost for judging the Fed's actions.</b></p><p><b>In terms of employment, the accelerated recovery of the service industry has significantly boosted employment.</b>U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 559,000 in May, slightly worse than the expected 675,000, but better than the previous value of 266,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8%, better than the expected 5.9% and the previous value of 6.1%. Among them, jobs in leisure and hotel industries, public and private education, medical care and social assistance have increased significantly. The number of new jobs in the private service industry reached 492,000, which was the main driving force for new non-agricultural employment. Among them, the leisure and hotel industries performed well, with 292,000 new jobs. With the resumption of on-site teaching and other school-related activities in some areas, the number of employed people in education has also increased.</p><p>Figure 4: Non-farm employment breakdown in May (thousands)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401439e6e55203269ab83a1ec5e110c4\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and the labor force participation rate was lower. In addition to higher unemployment subsidies, there were also child care and transportation problems.</b>Unemployment subsidies are higher than the average wage of low-income people, hindering the willingness to return to work to a certain extent; The Beige Book of the Federal Reserve shows that since most schools have not yet resumed classes, low-income people and women bear more childcare burdens; At the same time, due to the epidemic, the reduction of some public transportation frequencies has led to a decline in transportation convenience, which is the reason for the decline in labor participation rate.</p><p>In terms of childcare, the resumption of classes for students is advancing: many American schools have advanced to August, and the number of new jobs in public and private schools increased by 103,000 and 41,000 respectively in May, indicating that schools are resuming classes, which is a positive signal. After Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in people aged 12-15, states across the United States started vaccination efforts for teenagers.</p><p>Table 1: Low-income people are most likely to have not returned to the labour market because they have to care for children</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df31823c9d430179ccd80016cacaa34\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: Data are average values from 2015 to 2019. Source: stlouisfed, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Twenty-five states in the past month announced that the pandemic-era unemployment benefit (PUA) of $300 per week would no longer be paid as of June. From July to August, with the withdrawal of unemployment subsidies and the resumption of students' classes, the labor participation rate will gradually improve and the job market will recover significantly. Assuming that non-farm employment will increase by an average of 600,000 people every month in the future, the employment scale in the United States that shrank due to the impact of the epidemic in the early stage will recover to about 75% in September, and will be completely restored in May around the second half of 2022.</p><p>Figure 5: Different assumptions for employment restoration (thousands)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74c2fab118adea0a5ae6e3f23099b70\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: 400,000 is the average level of new non-agricultural jobs since September 2020, corresponding to the neutral forecast; 600,000 is the average level in the first three months of 2021, corresponding to optimistic assumptions; 200,000 is the average level from 2017 to 2019, corresponding to pessimistic forecasts. Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Referring to the experience of 2013, the Federal Reserve may release a signal to reduce QE when employment returns to around 75%, and start to reduce QE as soon as the fourth quarter of this year. The fastest time to release the signal may be at the Jackson Hole meeting in August or the interest rate meeting in September.</b></p><p>Figure 6: With the steady improvement of employment, the Federal Reserve gradually tightens monetary policy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a68b836f28c1332cb0738ff3f3bfbb5\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Third, the vaccination rate will reach 75% in September.</b></p><p><b>Vaccination Progress</b>It directly affects the recovery speed of the labor market (especially the low-end and service industries). St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes that 75% of Americans are vaccinated will be a signal that the new crown crisis is coming to an end and a necessary condition for the Fed to consider tapering its bond purchase program.</p><p>In terms of vaccination, data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 7 showed that 50.9% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, 41.3% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, and 63.8% of the adult population had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine. But vaccinations have been declining over the past few weeks. According to CDC data, the average daily vaccination volume in the United States in the past week was 1.07 million, down one-third from the peak of 3.4 million in April. At this rate,<b>We expect that the United States will achieve 75% universal vaccination in late September and 75% adult vaccination in late July.</b></p><p>Figure 7: Vaccination rate and forecast in COVID-19 vaccine, USA</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac4ad50410de688e76122d9ea44f8c51\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: ourworldindata, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>The pandemic is the biggest politics, and the vaccine is the biggest policy.</b></p><p>When the vaccination is completed, the service industry is accelerated to open up, financial subsidies are withdrawn, and unemployment is significantly improved, the inflection point of fiscal and monetary liquidity will also appear. August is a critical time when the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department bottoms out and the Federal Reserve releases a signal to reduce QE. The inflection points of fiscal and monetary liquidity may resonate.<b>In February of this year, major asset classes have already made a preview of the inflection point of liquidity. In August, high-valued stocks and interest rate-sensitive assets may reproduce their performance in February.</b></p><p>Figure 8: Performance of U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, U.S. dollar, and gold from January to June this year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c69078674f51115227f83a254b24208\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: WIND, TF Securities Research Institute</p>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雪涛宏观笔记</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 17:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Xiang Jingshu/Song Xuetao</p><p><b>In the past two months, the liquidity flood of the US dollar has surpassed inflation, fundamentals and policy, and dominated the trend and style of large asset classes.</b></p><p><b>The excess liquidity originated from the flooding of the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department since March this year.</b>The TGA account is the cash balance or general account of the U.S. Treasury Department, which reflects most of the income and expenditure of the U.S. Treasury Department. When the TGA increases (decreases), it will draw (increase) reserves from the banking system. According to the U.S. post-epidemic stimulus bill, the U.S. Treasury Department raised approximately US $4.3 trillion in 2020. However, due to slow allocation, funds were stranded in TGA, leaving TGA with a balance of US $1.4 trillion in early March.</p><p><b>The pressure of TGA flood discharge before August is still there.</b>On February 1, 2021, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced the TGA reduction plan and began to reduce the balance of TGA accounts. It is planned to reduce to $800 billion by the end of March and $500 billion by the end of June, and finally meet the requirements by the end of July. However, as of June 2, TGA's account balance was still 783.2 billion, and the pressure drop rate was slower than planned.</p><p>Figure 1: TGA account balance (USD billion)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df65ca24c84cce91a145e23362ec58b\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Since March, TGA has dropped by about 680 billion yuan, which is equivalent to providing an additional increase of about 8% on the basis of the current deposit balances of all commercial banks.<b>Fed Overnight Reverse Repurchase (O/N RRP) Usage Surges</b>, the absorption capacity of banks is close to saturation. This will put downward (negative interest rate) pressure on short-term interest rates and related asset prices.</p><p>Figure 2: The scale of overnight reverse repurchase in the United States hits a record high (billion US dollars)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d24e160e8fbc24c1406df5e8d6c1990\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Figure 3: The dollar liquidity premium returns to the extremely low level seen during the epidemic last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0d3421217ea7beb0752370706a58c\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>We judge that the inflection point of liquidity of the US dollar will appear in August this year.</b></p><p><b>First, the flood discharge of the TGA account ends at the end of July, and may turn from a decrease to an increase in August.</b></p><p>The debt limit plan will be a turning point for TGA to release liquidity. According to the estimate of the U.S. Treasury Department in May, when the \"debt ceiling\" exemption expires at the end of July, the general account balance of the Treasury Department will be reduced to approximately $450 billion; After that, with the issuance of debt, it will rise to approximately US $750 billion by the end of September, which means that the issuance of bonds by the Ministry of Finance in August and September will bring about a liquidity contraction of US $300 billion. Only by raising the debt ceiling can the U.S. government continue to borrow, otherwise the Treasury Department can only choose to stop issuing Treasury Bond and continue to use TGA accounts and other limited number of \"special measures\" to keep the government's funding supply. The TGA account balance will continue to decline at this time. Once the relevant measures fail to cover the financing needs of the Treasury Department, it may lead to a technical default of the U.S. government and a downgrade of the U.S. debt rating.</p><p><b>Second, the Federal Reserve may have the employment conditions to release the signal of reducing QE in August.</b></p><p>Regarding the labor market, Powell is worried that \"the epidemic will cause long-term scars on the labor market. So far, we have not experienced that level of trauma.\" Powell believes that it will take some time to gradually recover from the imbalance in the labor market caused by the epidemic. Hence<b>The degree of improvement in the labor market is an important signpost for judging the Fed's actions.</b></p><p><b>In terms of employment, the accelerated recovery of the service industry has significantly boosted employment.</b>U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 559,000 in May, slightly worse than the expected 675,000, but better than the previous value of 266,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8%, better than the expected 5.9% and the previous value of 6.1%. Among them, jobs in leisure and hotel industries, public and private education, medical care and social assistance have increased significantly. The number of new jobs in the private service industry reached 492,000, which was the main driving force for new non-agricultural employment. Among them, the leisure and hotel industries performed well, with 292,000 new jobs. With the resumption of on-site teaching and other school-related activities in some areas, the number of employed people in education has also increased.</p><p>Figure 4: Non-farm employment breakdown in May (thousands)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401439e6e55203269ab83a1ec5e110c4\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and the labor force participation rate was lower. In addition to higher unemployment subsidies, there were also child care and transportation problems.</b>Unemployment subsidies are higher than the average wage of low-income people, hindering the willingness to return to work to a certain extent; The Beige Book of the Federal Reserve shows that since most schools have not yet resumed classes, low-income people and women bear more childcare burdens; At the same time, due to the epidemic, the reduction of some public transportation frequencies has led to a decline in transportation convenience, which is the reason for the decline in labor participation rate.</p><p>In terms of childcare, the resumption of classes for students is advancing: many American schools have advanced to August, and the number of new jobs in public and private schools increased by 103,000 and 41,000 respectively in May, indicating that schools are resuming classes, which is a positive signal. After Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in people aged 12-15, states across the United States started vaccination efforts for teenagers.</p><p>Table 1: Low-income people are most likely to have not returned to the labour market because they have to care for children</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df31823c9d430179ccd80016cacaa34\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: Data are average values from 2015 to 2019. Source: stlouisfed, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Twenty-five states in the past month announced that the pandemic-era unemployment benefit (PUA) of $300 per week would no longer be paid as of June. From July to August, with the withdrawal of unemployment subsidies and the resumption of students' classes, the labor participation rate will gradually improve and the job market will recover significantly. Assuming that non-farm employment will increase by an average of 600,000 people every month in the future, the employment scale in the United States that shrank due to the impact of the epidemic in the early stage will recover to about 75% in September, and will be completely restored in May around the second half of 2022.</p><p>Figure 5: Different assumptions for employment restoration (thousands)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74c2fab118adea0a5ae6e3f23099b70\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: 400,000 is the average level of new non-agricultural jobs since September 2020, corresponding to the neutral forecast; 600,000 is the average level in the first three months of 2021, corresponding to optimistic assumptions; 200,000 is the average level from 2017 to 2019, corresponding to pessimistic forecasts. Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Referring to the experience of 2013, the Federal Reserve may release a signal to reduce QE when employment returns to around 75%, and start to reduce QE as soon as the fourth quarter of this year. The fastest time to release the signal may be at the Jackson Hole meeting in August or the interest rate meeting in September.</b></p><p>Figure 6: With the steady improvement of employment, the Federal Reserve gradually tightens monetary policy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a68b836f28c1332cb0738ff3f3bfbb5\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Third, the vaccination rate will reach 75% in September.</b></p><p><b>Vaccination Progress</b>It directly affects the recovery speed of the labor market (especially the low-end and service industries). St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes that 75% of Americans are vaccinated will be a signal that the new crown crisis is coming to an end and a necessary condition for the Fed to consider tapering its bond purchase program.</p><p>In terms of vaccination, data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 7 showed that 50.9% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, 41.3% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, and 63.8% of the adult population had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine. But vaccinations have been declining over the past few weeks. According to CDC data, the average daily vaccination volume in the United States in the past week was 1.07 million, down one-third from the peak of 3.4 million in April. At this rate,<b>We expect that the United States will achieve 75% universal vaccination in late September and 75% adult vaccination in late July.</b></p><p>Figure 7: Vaccination rate and forecast in COVID-19 vaccine, USA</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac4ad50410de688e76122d9ea44f8c51\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: ourworldindata, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>The pandemic is the biggest politics, and the vaccine is the biggest policy.</b></p><p>When the vaccination is completed, the service industry is accelerated to open up, financial subsidies are withdrawn, and unemployment is significantly improved, the inflection point of fiscal and monetary liquidity will also appear. August is a critical time when the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department bottoms out and the Federal Reserve releases a signal to reduce QE. The inflection points of fiscal and monetary liquidity may resonate.<b>In February of this year, major asset classes have already made a preview of the inflection point of liquidity. In August, high-valued stocks and interest rate-sensitive assets may reproduce their performance in February.</b></p><p>Figure 8: Performance of U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, U.S. dollar, and gold from January to June this year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c69078674f51115227f83a254b24208\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: WIND, TF Securities Research Institute</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492175.html\">雪涛宏观笔记</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4eb38b95a6b8cf963d8108ff90eb2e3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492175.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141888036","content_text":"作者：向静姝/宋雪涛\n过去2个月，美元的流动性泛滥超越了通胀、基本面和政策，主导了大类资产的走势和风格。\n过剩的流动性起源于今年3月以来美国财政部TGA账户的泄洪。TGA账户是美国财政部的现金结余或财政部一般账户，反映美国财政部大部分收入及支出。当TGA增加(减少)时，其将从银行系统中吸取(增加)储备。根据美国疫后刺激法案，2020年美国财政部融资了约4.3万亿美元，但是由于拨出缓慢，资金滞留在TGA，使得TGA在3月初存有1.4 万亿美元余额。\n8月前TGA泄洪的压力仍在。2021年2月1日，美国财政部公布TGA缩减计划，开始着手压降TGA账户余额。计划3月底缩减至8000亿美元，6月底缩减至5000亿美元，最终在7月底达到要求。但截止6月2日TGA的账户余额还有7832亿，压降速度低于计划。\n图1：TGA账户余额(十亿美元)\n\n资料来源：FRED，天风证券研究所\n3月至今TGA已压降了大约6800亿，整体相当于向当前所有商业银行存款余额的基础上提供了额外约8%的增量。美联储隔夜逆回购(O/N RRP)用量激增，银行吸纳容量已经接近饱和。这将对短端利率及相关的资产价格带来下行(负利率)压力。\n图2：美国隔夜逆回购规模创历史新高(十亿美元)\n\n资料来源：FRED，天风证券研究所\n图3：美元流动性溢价回到去年疫情期间的极低水平\n\n资料来源：bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n我们判断美元的流动性拐点将出现在今年内8月。\n第一，TGA账户的泄洪在7月底截止，可能在8月由降转升。\n债务限额预案将成为TGA释放流动性的转折点。根据美国财政部5月的估计，7月底 “债务上限”豁免到期时，财政部一般账户余额将降低至大约4500亿美元;之后，随着债务发行，9月末将回升至大约7500亿美元，这意味着8、9月财政部发债将带来3000亿美元的流动性收缩。提高债务上限才能让美国政府继续举债，否则财政部只能选择停止发行国债，继续使用TGA账户和其他有限数量的“特别措施”来保持政府的资金供应。此时TGA账户余额将继续下降。一旦相关措施不能覆盖财政部的融资需要，可能导致美国政府出现技术性违约和美债评级下调。\n第二，美联储可能在8月具备释放缩减QE信号的就业条件。\n对于劳动力市场，鲍威尔担心“疫情会对劳动力市场造成长期的伤疤，到目前为止，我们还没有经历过那种程度的创伤”。疫情导致的劳动力市场的失衡关系，鲍威尔认为还需要一段时间才能逐渐地恢复过来。因此劳动力市场改善程度是判断美联储行动的重要路标。\n就业方面，服务业加速恢复对就业的拉动显著。5月美国非农就业人数增加55.9万人，略逊于预期的67.5万人，但好于前值26.6万人。失业率下降0.3个百分点至5.8%，好于预期的5.9%和前值6.1%。其中休闲和酒店业、公私营教育、医疗保健和社会援助等领域的工作显著增加。私人服务业新增就业达到49.2万人，为新增非农就业的主要动力。其中，休闲和酒店业表现亮眼，新增就业达到29.2万人。而随着部分地区恢复现场教学及其他与学校有关的活动，教育的就业人数也有增加。\n图4：5月非农就业分项(千人)\n\n资料来源：bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n美国非农就业数据低于预期，劳动参与率走低，原因除了失业补贴较高之外，还有托儿、交通问题。失业补贴高于低收入人群平均工资在一定程度上阻碍了复工意愿;美联储褐皮书显示，由于目前多数学校尚未复课，低收入人群和女性承担更多的育儿负担;同时由于疫情导致部分公共交通班次减少带来交通便利程度下降，都是造成劳动参与率下降的原因。\n育儿方面，学生复课正在推进：许多美国学校开学时间提前到8月，5月公立和私人学校新增就业分别上升10.3万和4.1万人，说明学校在复课，这是一个积极的信号。在辉瑞新冠疫苗针对12-15周岁人群的使用得到批准后，全美各州纷纷开启针对青少年的疫苗接种工作。\n表1：低收入人群最有可能因为要照顾孩子而尚未回到劳动力市场\n\n注：数据为2015年至2019年的平均值。资料来源：stlouisfed，天风证券研究所\n过去一个月有25个州宣布疫情时期每周300美元的失业津贴(PUA)将自6月起不再发放。7-8月，伴随失业补贴退出、学生复课，劳动参与率将逐渐改善，就业市场将显著恢复。假设非农就业未来每个月平均新增60万人，美国前期受疫情冲击而萎缩的就业规模，将在9月恢复至75%左右，并于2022年下半年前后5月完全修复。\n图5：就业修复的不同假设(千人)\n\n注: 40万是2020年9月以来非农新增就业的均值水平，对应中性预测;60万是2021年前3个月的均值水平，对应乐观假设;20万是2017-2019年的均值水平，对应悲观预测。资料来源：FRED，天风证券研究所\n参照2013年的经验，美联储可能在就业恢复到75%附近时释放缩减QE信号，并最快在今年4季度开始缩减QE。释放信号的时间最快可能是在8月的Jackson Hole会议或9月的议息会议。\n图6：伴随就业稳固改善，美联储逐步收紧货币政策\n\n资料来源：bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n第三，疫苗接种率将在9月达到75%。\n疫苗接种进度直接影响劳动力市场(特别是低端、服务业)修复速度。圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard认为75%的美国人接种疫苗将是新冠危机即将结束的信号，也是美联储考虑缩减购债计划的必要条件。\n疫苗接种方面，美国疾病控制和预防中心(CDC)6月7日公布的数据显示，美国至少接种一剂新冠肺炎疫苗的人口比例为50.9%，美国完全接种新冠肺炎疫苗的人口比例为41.3%，至少接种一剂新冠肺炎疫苗的成人人口比例为63.8%。但过去数周疫苗接种量在下降。根据CDC数据，在过去一周美国平均每日接种量为107万，较4月的峰值340万下降了三分之一。按照此速度，我们预计美国将在9月下旬达成75%全民接种，7月下旬完成75%成人接种。\n图7：美国新冠疫苗接种率及预测\n\n资料来源：ourworldindata，天风证券研究所\n疫情是最大的政治，疫苗是最大的政策。\n当疫苗接种完成、服务业加速开放、财政补贴退出、失业显著改善的信号出现时，财政和货币的流动性拐点也将随之出现。8月是美国财政部TGA账户见底、美联储释放缩减QE信号的关键时点，财政和货币的流动性拐点可能出现共振。今年2月，大类资产已经对流动性拐点做过一次预演，8月高估值股票和利率敏感型资产可能重现2月时的表现。\n图8：今年1-6月美股、美债、美元、黄金表现\n\n资料来源：WIND，天风证券研究所","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112491026,"gmtCreate":1622897579565,"gmtModify":1704193101519,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112491026","repostId":"2141400426","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180756857,"gmtCreate":1623228644979,"gmtModify":1704198801517,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180756857","repostId":"1151884705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131227845,"gmtCreate":1621864271087,"gmtModify":1704363500511,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/131227845","repostId":"2137153858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137153858","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1621864136,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137153858?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-24 21:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The beautiful picture of crazy coin speculation: from a net profit of 100 million to a loss of 13 million!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137153858","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近日，比特币等加密货币的暴跌不光使得特斯拉投资比特币的收益抹平，此前杀入币圈、一度风光的美图甚至已经亏损。\n作为国内头部影像处理平台，今年3月份美图公司正式宣布入局加密货币。截至4月8日，美图已分3次","content":"<p>Recently, the plunge in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin has not only made<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The income from investing in Bitcoin has been smoothed out, and Meitu, which had entered the currency circle before and was once famous, has even lost money.</p><p>As a domestic head image processing platform, in March this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01357\">Meitu Corporation</a>Officially announced the entry into cryptocurrency. As of April 8, Meitu has accumulated net purchases of cryptocurrencies worth approximately US $100 million in three installments, including 940.885 Bitcoin and 31,000 Ethereum.</p><p>On the evening of April 8, Meitu purchased 175.67798279 units of Bitcoin for a total consideration of approximately US $10 million. Previously, on March 17, Meitu purchased 16,000 units of Ethereum and 386.08581655 units of Bitcoin through its wholly-owned subsidiary Miracle Vision, with total considerations of US $28.4 million and US $21.6 million respectively. On March 5, Meitu had purchased 15,000 units of Ethereum and 379.1214267 units of Bitcoin in open market transactions. At that time, the total consideration for the two cryptocurrencies was approximately US $22.1 million and US $17.9 million respectively. How crazy is Meitu speculating in coins? It is understood that the above-mentioned cryptocurrency investment planning funds are almost equal to the annual gross profit of Meitu last year. According to its 2020 annual performance report, at the end of 2020, Meitu's cash and cash equivalents were approximately 1.1 billion yuan.</p><p>On April 13, the cryptocurrency market was boiling, with Bitcoin breaking through the $63,000 mark and Ethereum breaking through $2,200. Calculated by Times Finance, these three investments of Meitu Company,<b>At one point, it brought it a floating profit of nearly US $27.4862 million (about 177 million yuan).</b></p><p>Meitu's adjusted net profit for the full year of 2020 is only 60.9 million yuan.</p><p>However, no flowers last for a hundred days,<b>According to cnBeta, the recent plunge in Bitcoin has turned Meitu from profit to loss, with a current floating loss of US $2.02 million, or about 13 million yuan.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc22be4d5b721afb31c8f85bf3ab395d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to Meitu's previous announcement, the company's investment in Bitcoin is based on the recognition that cryptocurrency has sufficient room for appreciation, and plans to allocate part of its cash reserves to cryptocurrency to diversify the risk of holding cash in fund management.</p><p>It is worth noting that Meitu loves to speculate in coins and its founder Cai Wensheng has something to do with it. It can be said that Cai Wensheng is a loyal supporter of blockchain technology and digital currency.</p><p>Shortly after Meitu first purchased cryptocurrency, Cai Wensheng posted in Moments:</p><p>Meitu continues to deploy the blockchain. This time, it purchased ETH and BTC digital currencies as a value reserve for the long-term development of the blockchain strategy. Someone has to be the first to eat crabs. This should be regarded as the first listed company in Hong Kong to purchase BTC digital currency, and it can also be regarded as the first listed company in the world to use ETH Ethereum as a currency value reserve.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The beautiful picture of crazy coin speculation: from a net profit of 100 million to a loss of 13 million!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe beautiful picture of crazy coin speculation: from a net profit of 100 million to a loss of 13 million!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-24 21:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, the plunge in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin has not only made<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The income from investing in Bitcoin has been smoothed out, and Meitu, which had entered the currency circle before and was once famous, has even lost money.</p><p>As a domestic head image processing platform, in March this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01357\">Meitu Corporation</a>Officially announced the entry into cryptocurrency. As of April 8, Meitu has accumulated net purchases of cryptocurrencies worth approximately US $100 million in three installments, including 940.885 Bitcoin and 31,000 Ethereum.</p><p>On the evening of April 8, Meitu purchased 175.67798279 units of Bitcoin for a total consideration of approximately US $10 million. Previously, on March 17, Meitu purchased 16,000 units of Ethereum and 386.08581655 units of Bitcoin through its wholly-owned subsidiary Miracle Vision, with total considerations of US $28.4 million and US $21.6 million respectively. On March 5, Meitu had purchased 15,000 units of Ethereum and 379.1214267 units of Bitcoin in open market transactions. At that time, the total consideration for the two cryptocurrencies was approximately US $22.1 million and US $17.9 million respectively. How crazy is Meitu speculating in coins? It is understood that the above-mentioned cryptocurrency investment planning funds are almost equal to the annual gross profit of Meitu last year. According to its 2020 annual performance report, at the end of 2020, Meitu's cash and cash equivalents were approximately 1.1 billion yuan.</p><p>On April 13, the cryptocurrency market was boiling, with Bitcoin breaking through the $63,000 mark and Ethereum breaking through $2,200. Calculated by Times Finance, these three investments of Meitu Company,<b>At one point, it brought it a floating profit of nearly US $27.4862 million (about 177 million yuan).</b></p><p>Meitu's adjusted net profit for the full year of 2020 is only 60.9 million yuan.</p><p>However, no flowers last for a hundred days,<b>According to cnBeta, the recent plunge in Bitcoin has turned Meitu from profit to loss, with a current floating loss of US $2.02 million, or about 13 million yuan.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc22be4d5b721afb31c8f85bf3ab395d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to Meitu's previous announcement, the company's investment in Bitcoin is based on the recognition that cryptocurrency has sufficient room for appreciation, and plans to allocate part of its cash reserves to cryptocurrency to diversify the risk of holding cash in fund management.</p><p>It is worth noting that Meitu loves to speculate in coins and its founder Cai Wensheng has something to do with it. It can be said that Cai Wensheng is a loyal supporter of blockchain technology and digital currency.</p><p>Shortly after Meitu first purchased cryptocurrency, Cai Wensheng posted in Moments:</p><p>Meitu continues to deploy the blockchain. This time, it purchased ETH and BTC digital currencies as a value reserve for the long-term development of the blockchain strategy. Someone has to be the first to eat crabs. This should be regarded as the first listed company in Hong Kong to purchase BTC digital currency, and it can also be regarded as the first listed company in the world to use ETH Ethereum as a currency value reserve.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631125\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a44057b4a20ebe6d630712ecfc5dba80","relate_stocks":{"01357":"美图公司"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631125","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137153858","content_text":"近日，比特币等加密货币的暴跌不光使得特斯拉投资比特币的收益抹平，此前杀入币圈、一度风光的美图甚至已经亏损。\n作为国内头部影像处理平台，今年3月份美图公司正式宣布入局加密货币。截至4月8日，美图已分3次累计净购入了价值约1亿美元的加密货币，包括940.885枚比特币和3.1万枚以太坊。\n\n 4月8日晚，美图购买了175.67798279单位的比特币，总对价约为1000万美元。此前在3月17日，美图通过全资子公司Miracle Vision购买了16000单位以太币和386.08581655单位比特币，总对价分别为2840万美元和2160万美元。3月5日，美图公司在公开市场交易中已购买了15000单位的以太币和379.1214267单位的比特币，当时这两种加密货币的总对价分别约为2210万美元和1790万美元。\n\n炒币的美图有多疯狂，据了解，上述的加密货币投资规划资金几乎等于去年美图公司的全年毛利。而根据其2020年年度业绩报告，2020年年底，美图公司的现金及现金等价物为约11亿元人民币。\n4月13日，加密货币市场沸腾，比特币冲破6.3万美元大关，以太坊也突破2200美元。按时代财经计算，美图公司的这三笔投资，一度为它带来将近2748.62万美元（约合1.77亿元人民币）的浮盈。\n美图公司在2020年的全年经调整的净利润也不过6090万元人民币。\n不过，花无百日红，据cnBeta，近期比特币的暴跌，已使美图公司由盈转亏，目前浮亏达202万美元，约合1300万人民币。\n\n根据美图公司此前的公告，公司投资比特币是基于加密货币具有足够的升值空间的认知，并且计划通过将其部分现金储备金分配到加密货币，用作资金管理中分散持有现金的风险。\n值得注意的是，美图爱炒币与其创始人蔡文胜不无关系。可以说，蔡文胜是区块链技术和数字货币的忠实支持者。\n在美图首次购入加密货币后不久，蔡文胜就曾在朋友圈发文表示：\n\n 美图公司继续布局区块链，这次购买ETH、BTC数字货币作为长期发展区块链战略的价值储备。总要有人第一个吃螃蟹。这应该算香港上市公司第一家购买BTC数字货币吧，也算是全球第一家上市公司把ETH以太坊作为货币价值储备。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01357":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137929722,"gmtCreate":1622287418466,"gmtModify":1704182718655,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137929722","repostId":"1140647879","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140647879","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622254470,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140647879?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-29 10:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Too many female presidents and too few Liu Qing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140647879","media":"投中网","summary":"上一代独角兽的IPO反复传出又反复辟谣，柳青将带领它往哪儿走？2015年4月，柳青和冯唐在一档对话节目中如是说。说这话时，她加入滴滴10个月，title从首席运营官，到了总裁。柳青出生于北京，后来出国留学，在香港工作12年。镜头里的柳青米白色礼服、脸较前几年略微清瘦一点。","content":"<p><b>This is also a \"face\" of Didi: an international and negotiating representative who can rush to the front line when financing. The IPO of the previous generation of unicorns has been repeatedly rumored and rumored. Where will Liu Qing lead it?</b></p><p>\"Beijing is a place that defines me,\" Liu Qing and Feng Tang said in a conversation program in April 2015. When she said this, she joined Didi for 10 months, and her title went from chief operating officer to president.</p><p>Defining the word is somewhat subtle. Liu Qing was born in Beijing, then went abroad to study and worked in Hong Kong for 12 years. Back in this city, she left the world-renowned investment bank and joined the fledgling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>。 \"Everything starts from scratch,\" Liu Qing said.</p><p>Liu Qing's off-white dress and face in the camera are slightly thinner than those in previous years. She is a standard oriental face. When she has a good chat with Feng Tang, she will carelessly pull the lines into a smiling face. But when it comes to \"definition\", her expression is stable, and she will raise her chin with her hands, so the information she comes out is not very clear. She is also a \"face\" of Didi: an international and negotiating representative, who can rush to the front line when financing.</p><p>But this is only a career function. What kind of person is the owner of this face? What is she choosing? Pursue what?</p><p>In an interview in 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CG\">Carlyle</a>David Rubenstein, chairman of Investment, also expressed his doubts. He went from investment analyst to managing director in Asia with an annual salary of tens of millions-it is said that at that time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The youngest managing director, this should be a high-level period of Liu Qing's life, why did he choose to leave?</p><p>2021 is Liu Qing's seventh year at Didi. Now, everyone knows that she is the president of Didi side by side with founder Cheng Wei, and she has been awarded by the Financial Times, Time, Forbes and other well-known media as \"one of the few Chinese women who attract worldwide attention\" and a global young leader.</p><p>These are the public praises she hasn't seen in 12 years at Goldman Sachs. When she was in investment banking, more people were curious about her-\"The daughter of Lenovo founder Liu Chuanzhi was originally in our company\". What cases did Liu Qing do at Goldman Sachs? Public reports rarely mention it. People with a heart only need to search a little. Whether it is Chinese or English reports, all about Liu Qing are concentrated after she went to Didi in 2014.</p><p>Liu Qing is a compound existence to Didi, or in other words, Liu Qing has become more and more \"solid\" in Didi-a kind of \"compound\" that is rare among the same type of female entrepreneurs. She became an operating officer when she came out of the investment bank, became a \"trust officer\" when public opinion was in crisis, and then became a talent officer when she opened up new markets.</p><p>\"I no longer have to prove my worth,\" Liu Qing told Feng Tang, who was born in the same city.</p><p><b>Investors should change careers \"early\"</b></p><p>The news of Didi's previous generation unicorn's IPO this summer has been repeatedly spread and rumored. Where will Liu Qing lead it? Regarding the future, we have to go back and start from the beginning.</p><p>After joining Didi, at least three iconic events were attributed to Liu Qing's achievements by the media:</p><p>1. Large-scale financing: Just half a year after joining, it helped to win \"the largest financing of 700 million US dollars for unlisted companies at that time\"; Subsequently, Didi's financing ability continued to be strengthened. For example, in 2016, two rounds of financing totaled USD 5.5 billion-a new record for industry financing. The new financing party is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFC\">China Life Insurance</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>And other well-known companies.</p><p>2. Merge with Kuai</p><p>3. Merger with Uber China</p><p>Financing and mergers and acquisitions, or Liu Qing's repeated work in investment banking, has maximized its value in Didi: super financing ability-exactly what this newly established Internet company needs to enter a crazy money-burning war in the future.</p><p>$5.5 billion may be just one of the good cases for an investment bank with assets under management of more than $2 trillion, but it is a life-and-death fund for a startup company.</p><p>How important was timely and large-scale financing to mobility companies at the time? Liu Qin, the founding partner of Wuyuan Capital who once invested in Yidao Travel, expressed this in a conversation with \"Latepost\" in 2020:</p><p>\"We invested easily in 2012, when Didi had not yet been established. We never thought that a company could raise 15-20 billion dollars. The scale of funds quickly destroyed the first-Mover advantage of First Mover and washed away your cognitive advantage as a classic VC. Without this set of great rule-changing things from Didi Kuai, Easy will be a big platform.\"</p><p>In other words, because of the continuous large-scale financing, Didi was able to survive the money-burning war in the travel market, merged with Kuaidi and Uber China, and became the biggest winner in the travel market. In this process, Liu Qing played an indispensable role.</p><p>Looking back now, it was a prime time when Liu Qing chose to join an Internet company. In 2010, China's Internet gradually shifted from PC to mobile Internet, and most companies are in the early stage or at a critical stage of development.</p><p>When Liu Qing joined Didi, the company was valued at $500 million. In 2021, a number of media reported that Didi, which plans to IPO, is valued at at least US $100 billion. In the seven years since Liu Qing joined, Didi's valuation has increased by 199 times.</p><p>Zhou Shouzi, who went to the company from an investment institution one year later than Liu Qing, joined Xiaomi in 2015 with a company valuation of US $45 billion, and its market value on the first day of listing in 2018 was US $47.9 billion. If calculated on a weekly basis when he resigned-Xiaomi's market value was around US $84 billion-in his six years in office, his market value increased by 80%, less than doubled.</p><p>In essence, Didi and Xiaomi cannot be compared. But if it is only regarded as a timing difference in personal choice, it may be a coincidence, but at that time, joining Didi was indeed a good choice for Liu Qing. If she stayed at Goldman Sachs, she would not be able to participate in the high-speed and efficient Internet competition and development process.</p><p>When Liu Qing was still at Goldman Sachs, he tried to invest in Didi three times and failed three times. One of the most widely circulated reasons is the issue of efficiency. Goldman Sachs, an investment bank with a history of hundreds of years, is rigorous and requires multiple processes to repeatedly confirm investment targets before making decisions. But at that time, well-known VCs who wanted to give Didi money were all lined up, and there was no shortage of Goldman Sachs.</p><p><b>\"Self-cultivation\" to female entrepreneurs</b></p><p>In 2016, the Financial Times described Liu Qing as a friendly and English-proficient representative of Didi the friendly, English-speaking face of Didi. This year, Liu Qing rarely appeared in media interviews due to breast cancer treatment, and did not attend the merger with Uber China business. Many media have some sort of regret for this \"absence\".</p><p>Liu Qingzhi is a compound existence to Didi. During the period of Didi's rapid development, there is her super financing ability and business integration ability behind it. At the same time, she is also a \"face\" of Didi. This face is an international and negotiating representative, and can rush to the front line when financing. Especially in 2015, by investing in travel companies such as Lyft in the United States and Grab in Southeast Asia, Didi started its international business. Liu Qingzao is a business card for the world to know Didi.</p><p>The identity of a female entrepreneur, her later victory over breast cancer, and the multiple identities of a single mother made Liu Qing's role more diversified. And this kind of diversification, for Didi, is at least a bonus point in communication.</p><p>In 2016, the Financial Times named her \"Woman of the Year\". At the same time, former British Prime Minister theresa may, former Brazilian President dilma rousseff, Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and other women were selected. At the same time, she was also selected into the list of \"Top 50 Most Influential Mothers in the World\" published by the American website of Working Mothers. In 2017, Liu Qing was selected into Time magazine's Global Influential 100 List, and she was also the only Asian female entrepreneur on the list.</p><p>The influential praise given to executives from the outside world is always positive in the publicity of a company. This is the uniqueness of a startup company with female executives. Looking at startups in China or around the world, this uniqueness is also scarce. Undoubtedly, Liu Qing also defined Didi.</p><p>Of course, Didi also shaped Liu Qing. In the early days, she was Liu Qing with strong financing ability and business operation. Later, with the development of Didi, her role and work content also changed.</p><p>In 2018, due to the hitchhiking safety incident, Didi entered a period of safety rectification. Uber went public in 2019, and the global travel market entered a new stage. Market competition is no longer the key. Business capabilities, business security and stability are the most important indicators. That is to say, there is no need to \"fight\" anymore, and the goal is to \"become stronger and bigger\".</p><p>Compared with Chengwei, Liu Qing assumed the role of \"trust officer\" at this stage. She constantly appears in front of the public-any international and domestic media interview, conference, summit-and constantly expounds Didi's bitter experience, improves safety and experience.</p><p>After three years of precipitation, Didi's business development began to develop radically again-the new brand \"Hua Xiaozhu\" was officially launched in 2020, and Didi announced its entry into South Africa in 2021. This time, Liu Qing's role is different again. She also serves as the chief talent officer and is responsible for the company's talent development plan. \"Chinese Entrepreneur\" said that rapidly growing new businesses and continuously expanding overseas markets require talent investment to discover, stimulate and cultivate talents, and this will be one of Liu Qing's main tasks in 2021.</p><p>You know, Liang Rubo, who just succeeded Zhang Yiming as CEO of ByteDance, works in human resources. In the year when Liang Rubo was the head of human resources, the number of ByteDance employees rose from 60,000 to 100,000-far exceeding Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Wait for established big Internet companies. And 2020 is also a year of crazy expansion for ByteDance.</p><p>In other words, this is another new role of 43-year-old Liu Qing's entrepreneur \"self-cultivation\". For Liu Qing, running a company in different positions and roles must be exciting. This was actually what she said herself.</p><p>In 2014, Liu Qing, who had no management and operation experience at Goldman Sachs, took over the position of COO (Chief Operating Officer), instead of CFO, a common position where investors turned to enterprises.</p><p>\"Although I don't have the experience of managing thousands of people, I have handled many businesses and met many entrepreneurs. Building a suitable organization may be in the genes of our generation.\" Don't forget, Liu Qing is also a \"second generation enterprise\" born in Beijing. He has lived in a family with a complete management evaluation system even for housework since childhood.</p><p>However, Didi has not yet been listed, and Liu Qing still needs to work hard. Moreover, after listing, there are challenges after listing-referring to the development of Uber after listing, we know that this matter is not easy. But for Liu Qing, no matter what Didi's development is, after the IPO, her entrepreneurial career has been regarded as a perfect \"resume\". She really doesn't want to be the president anymore. She can still go back to her old job-an investor. Presumably, this time she will be more popular with LPs than when she was at Goldman Sachs in 12 years.</p>","source":"tzw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Too many female presidents and too few Liu Qing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToo many female presidents and too few Liu Qing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投中网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-29 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This is also a \"face\" of Didi: an international and negotiating representative who can rush to the front line when financing. The IPO of the previous generation of unicorns has been repeatedly rumored and rumored. Where will Liu Qing lead it?</b></p><p>\"Beijing is a place that defines me,\" Liu Qing and Feng Tang said in a conversation program in April 2015. When she said this, she joined Didi for 10 months, and her title went from chief operating officer to president.</p><p>Defining the word is somewhat subtle. Liu Qing was born in Beijing, then went abroad to study and worked in Hong Kong for 12 years. Back in this city, she left the world-renowned investment bank and joined the fledgling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>。 \"Everything starts from scratch,\" Liu Qing said.</p><p>Liu Qing's off-white dress and face in the camera are slightly thinner than those in previous years. She is a standard oriental face. When she has a good chat with Feng Tang, she will carelessly pull the lines into a smiling face. But when it comes to \"definition\", her expression is stable, and she will raise her chin with her hands, so the information she comes out is not very clear. She is also a \"face\" of Didi: an international and negotiating representative, who can rush to the front line when financing.</p><p>But this is only a career function. What kind of person is the owner of this face? What is she choosing? Pursue what?</p><p>In an interview in 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CG\">Carlyle</a>David Rubenstein, chairman of Investment, also expressed his doubts. He went from investment analyst to managing director in Asia with an annual salary of tens of millions-it is said that at that time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The youngest managing director, this should be a high-level period of Liu Qing's life, why did he choose to leave?</p><p>2021 is Liu Qing's seventh year at Didi. Now, everyone knows that she is the president of Didi side by side with founder Cheng Wei, and she has been awarded by the Financial Times, Time, Forbes and other well-known media as \"one of the few Chinese women who attract worldwide attention\" and a global young leader.</p><p>These are the public praises she hasn't seen in 12 years at Goldman Sachs. When she was in investment banking, more people were curious about her-\"The daughter of Lenovo founder Liu Chuanzhi was originally in our company\". What cases did Liu Qing do at Goldman Sachs? Public reports rarely mention it. People with a heart only need to search a little. Whether it is Chinese or English reports, all about Liu Qing are concentrated after she went to Didi in 2014.</p><p>Liu Qing is a compound existence to Didi, or in other words, Liu Qing has become more and more \"solid\" in Didi-a kind of \"compound\" that is rare among the same type of female entrepreneurs. She became an operating officer when she came out of the investment bank, became a \"trust officer\" when public opinion was in crisis, and then became a talent officer when she opened up new markets.</p><p>\"I no longer have to prove my worth,\" Liu Qing told Feng Tang, who was born in the same city.</p><p><b>Investors should change careers \"early\"</b></p><p>The news of Didi's previous generation unicorn's IPO this summer has been repeatedly spread and rumored. Where will Liu Qing lead it? Regarding the future, we have to go back and start from the beginning.</p><p>After joining Didi, at least three iconic events were attributed to Liu Qing's achievements by the media:</p><p>1. Large-scale financing: Just half a year after joining, it helped to win \"the largest financing of 700 million US dollars for unlisted companies at that time\"; Subsequently, Didi's financing ability continued to be strengthened. For example, in 2016, two rounds of financing totaled USD 5.5 billion-a new record for industry financing. The new financing party is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFC\">China Life Insurance</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>And other well-known companies.</p><p>2. Merge with Kuai</p><p>3. Merger with Uber China</p><p>Financing and mergers and acquisitions, or Liu Qing's repeated work in investment banking, has maximized its value in Didi: super financing ability-exactly what this newly established Internet company needs to enter a crazy money-burning war in the future.</p><p>$5.5 billion may be just one of the good cases for an investment bank with assets under management of more than $2 trillion, but it is a life-and-death fund for a startup company.</p><p>How important was timely and large-scale financing to mobility companies at the time? Liu Qin, the founding partner of Wuyuan Capital who once invested in Yidao Travel, expressed this in a conversation with \"Latepost\" in 2020:</p><p>\"We invested easily in 2012, when Didi had not yet been established. We never thought that a company could raise 15-20 billion dollars. The scale of funds quickly destroyed the first-Mover advantage of First Mover and washed away your cognitive advantage as a classic VC. Without this set of great rule-changing things from Didi Kuai, Easy will be a big platform.\"</p><p>In other words, because of the continuous large-scale financing, Didi was able to survive the money-burning war in the travel market, merged with Kuaidi and Uber China, and became the biggest winner in the travel market. In this process, Liu Qing played an indispensable role.</p><p>Looking back now, it was a prime time when Liu Qing chose to join an Internet company. In 2010, China's Internet gradually shifted from PC to mobile Internet, and most companies are in the early stage or at a critical stage of development.</p><p>When Liu Qing joined Didi, the company was valued at $500 million. In 2021, a number of media reported that Didi, which plans to IPO, is valued at at least US $100 billion. In the seven years since Liu Qing joined, Didi's valuation has increased by 199 times.</p><p>Zhou Shouzi, who went to the company from an investment institution one year later than Liu Qing, joined Xiaomi in 2015 with a company valuation of US $45 billion, and its market value on the first day of listing in 2018 was US $47.9 billion. If calculated on a weekly basis when he resigned-Xiaomi's market value was around US $84 billion-in his six years in office, his market value increased by 80%, less than doubled.</p><p>In essence, Didi and Xiaomi cannot be compared. But if it is only regarded as a timing difference in personal choice, it may be a coincidence, but at that time, joining Didi was indeed a good choice for Liu Qing. If she stayed at Goldman Sachs, she would not be able to participate in the high-speed and efficient Internet competition and development process.</p><p>When Liu Qing was still at Goldman Sachs, he tried to invest in Didi three times and failed three times. One of the most widely circulated reasons is the issue of efficiency. Goldman Sachs, an investment bank with a history of hundreds of years, is rigorous and requires multiple processes to repeatedly confirm investment targets before making decisions. But at that time, well-known VCs who wanted to give Didi money were all lined up, and there was no shortage of Goldman Sachs.</p><p><b>\"Self-cultivation\" to female entrepreneurs</b></p><p>In 2016, the Financial Times described Liu Qing as a friendly and English-proficient representative of Didi the friendly, English-speaking face of Didi. This year, Liu Qing rarely appeared in media interviews due to breast cancer treatment, and did not attend the merger with Uber China business. Many media have some sort of regret for this \"absence\".</p><p>Liu Qingzhi is a compound existence to Didi. During the period of Didi's rapid development, there is her super financing ability and business integration ability behind it. At the same time, she is also a \"face\" of Didi. This face is an international and negotiating representative, and can rush to the front line when financing. Especially in 2015, by investing in travel companies such as Lyft in the United States and Grab in Southeast Asia, Didi started its international business. Liu Qingzao is a business card for the world to know Didi.</p><p>The identity of a female entrepreneur, her later victory over breast cancer, and the multiple identities of a single mother made Liu Qing's role more diversified. And this kind of diversification, for Didi, is at least a bonus point in communication.</p><p>In 2016, the Financial Times named her \"Woman of the Year\". At the same time, former British Prime Minister theresa may, former Brazilian President dilma rousseff, Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and other women were selected. At the same time, she was also selected into the list of \"Top 50 Most Influential Mothers in the World\" published by the American website of Working Mothers. In 2017, Liu Qing was selected into Time magazine's Global Influential 100 List, and she was also the only Asian female entrepreneur on the list.</p><p>The influential praise given to executives from the outside world is always positive in the publicity of a company. This is the uniqueness of a startup company with female executives. Looking at startups in China or around the world, this uniqueness is also scarce. Undoubtedly, Liu Qing also defined Didi.</p><p>Of course, Didi also shaped Liu Qing. In the early days, she was Liu Qing with strong financing ability and business operation. Later, with the development of Didi, her role and work content also changed.</p><p>In 2018, due to the hitchhiking safety incident, Didi entered a period of safety rectification. Uber went public in 2019, and the global travel market entered a new stage. Market competition is no longer the key. Business capabilities, business security and stability are the most important indicators. That is to say, there is no need to \"fight\" anymore, and the goal is to \"become stronger and bigger\".</p><p>Compared with Chengwei, Liu Qing assumed the role of \"trust officer\" at this stage. She constantly appears in front of the public-any international and domestic media interview, conference, summit-and constantly expounds Didi's bitter experience, improves safety and experience.</p><p>After three years of precipitation, Didi's business development began to develop radically again-the new brand \"Hua Xiaozhu\" was officially launched in 2020, and Didi announced its entry into South Africa in 2021. This time, Liu Qing's role is different again. She also serves as the chief talent officer and is responsible for the company's talent development plan. \"Chinese Entrepreneur\" said that rapidly growing new businesses and continuously expanding overseas markets require talent investment to discover, stimulate and cultivate talents, and this will be one of Liu Qing's main tasks in 2021.</p><p>You know, Liang Rubo, who just succeeded Zhang Yiming as CEO of ByteDance, works in human resources. In the year when Liang Rubo was the head of human resources, the number of ByteDance employees rose from 60,000 to 100,000-far exceeding Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Wait for established big Internet companies. And 2020 is also a year of crazy expansion for ByteDance.</p><p>In other words, this is another new role of 43-year-old Liu Qing's entrepreneur \"self-cultivation\". For Liu Qing, running a company in different positions and roles must be exciting. This was actually what she said herself.</p><p>In 2014, Liu Qing, who had no management and operation experience at Goldman Sachs, took over the position of COO (Chief Operating Officer), instead of CFO, a common position where investors turned to enterprises.</p><p>\"Although I don't have the experience of managing thousands of people, I have handled many businesses and met many entrepreneurs. Building a suitable organization may be in the genes of our generation.\" Don't forget, Liu Qing is also a \"second generation enterprise\" born in Beijing. He has lived in a family with a complete management evaluation system even for housework since childhood.</p><p>However, Didi has not yet been listed, and Liu Qing still needs to work hard. Moreover, after listing, there are challenges after listing-referring to the development of Uber after listing, we know that this matter is not easy. But for Liu Qing, no matter what Didi's development is, after the IPO, her entrepreneurial career has been regarded as a perfect \"resume\". She really doesn't want to be the president anymore. She can still go back to her old job-an investor. Presumably, this time she will be more popular with LPs than when she was at Goldman Sachs in 12 years.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2Wm03FFIW5q2y8ipRBNfnA\">投中网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7b8e55da7810fe1e4e2b57294d69828","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2Wm03FFIW5q2y8ipRBNfnA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140647879","content_text":"这也是滴滴的一张“脸”：国际化的、谈判的代表，融资时可以冲在一线。上一代独角兽的IPO反复传出又反复辟谣，柳青将带领它往哪儿走？\n“北京是定义我的一个地方。”2015年4月，柳青和冯唐在一档对话节目中如是说。说这话时，她加入滴滴10个月，title从首席运营官，到了总裁。\n定义这个词有些微妙。柳青出生于北京，后来出国留学，在香港工作12年。再回到这个城市，她从全球知名的投行离职，加入刚起步的创业公司。“一切从零开始。”柳青说。\n镜头里的柳青米白色礼服、脸较前几年略微清瘦一点。她算是标准的东方脸，当她和冯唐聊得尽兴了，会大大咧咧地把线条拉成一张笑脸。但谈到“定义”，她表情平稳，还会用手把下巴端起来，端出来的信息就不甚清晰了。她也是滴滴的一张“脸”：国际化的、谈判的代表，融资时可以冲在一线。\n但这仅仅是事业上的功用，这张脸的主人又究竟是怎样一个人？她在选择什么？追求什么？\n2020年的一个访谈里，凯雷投资的董事长David Rubenstein也表达了他的疑惑，从投资分析员一路做到年薪千万的亚洲区董事总经理——据说是当时高盛最年轻的一位董事总经理，这应该是柳青的一个人生高阶时期，为什么会选择离开？\n2021年是柳青在滴滴的第7年。现在，所有人都知道她是与创始人程维并肩的滴滴总裁，是被英国《金融时报》、《时代》、《福布斯》等知名媒体评为的“全球瞩目且为数不多的中国女性企业家”、全球青年领袖等各种嘉奖。\n这些，是她在高盛12年没有出现过的公共褒奖。在投行时，更多人对她的好奇在于——“联想创始人柳传志之女原来在我们公司”。柳青在高盛做了哪些案子？公开报道鲜少提及。有心人只要稍微搜索一下，无论是中文还是英文的报道，关于柳青的，都集中在2014年她去滴滴之后。\n柳青之于滴滴，是复合型的存在，或者换句俗话讲，柳青在滴滴锤炼得越来越“皮实”——一种在同类型女企业家中少见的“复合”，从投行出来一下场就当运营官，舆情危机了当“信任官”，开拓新市场了又去兼任人才官。\n“我不再需要证明自己的价值。”节目里，柳青对同在一个城市出生冯唐说。\n投资人转行要“趁早”\n滴滴这个上一代独角兽今夏IPO的消息反复传出又反复辟谣，柳青将带领它走到哪里？关于未来的问题，我们要先往回走，从头讲起。\n加入滴滴后，至少有三件标示性的事件被媒体归结为柳青的成绩：\n1、大规模的融资：刚加入半年，帮助拿下“当时非上市公司最大一笔7亿美元融资”；随后继续强化了滴滴融资能力，比如2016年年内两轮融资共55亿美元——为行业融资新纪录，新融资方是苹果、中国人寿和蚂蚁集团等知名公司。\n2、与快的合并\n3、与Uber中国合并\n融资和并购，或是柳青在投行时不断重复做的工作，在滴滴她又将之价值发挥最大：超强的融资能力——正是这家刚成立的互联网公司，日后进入疯狂烧钱大战所需要的。\n55亿美元，对一家管理资产规模超过2万亿美元的投行来说，或许只是其中一个规模不错的案子，但对一家创业公司来说，却是生死攸关的资金。\n及时、大规模的融资对当时的出行公司有多重要？曾投资易到出行的五源资本创始合伙人刘芹，2020年在与《晚点Latepost》的对话里这么表达：\n“我们2012年投资易到，当时滴滴还没有成立。我们从没想到一家公司可以融150-200亿美元，资金规模迅速摧毁了First Mover（模式首创者）先发优势，冲垮了你作为一个经典 VC 的认知优势。如果没有滴滴快的这一套巨大改变规则的东西，易到会是大平台。”\n换句话说，因为可以不断地大规模融资，滴滴得以在出行市场的烧钱大战中活下来，与快的、Uber中国合并，成为出行市场里最大的赢家。这个过程里，柳青功不可没。\n现在返回头看，柳青当初选择加入互联网公司时，正是一个黄金时间。2010年中国互联网从PC逐步转向进入移动互联网，大部分公司正处于早期或到了关键的发展阶段。\n柳青加入滴滴时，公司估值5亿美元。2021年多家媒体报道，计划IPO的滴滴估值至少1000亿美元。在柳青加入的这7年里，滴滴的估值增加了199倍。\n比柳青晚一年从投资机构去公司的周受资，2015年加入小米时，公司估值450亿美元，2018年上市首日市值为479亿美元。如果按周受资离职时——小米的市值在840亿美元左右——计算，他在职的6年里，市值增加了80%，不到1倍。\n本质上，滴滴与小米无法拿来对比。但如果仅作为个人选择上的时机差别来看，或许是机缘巧合，但那个时间对柳青来说，加入滴滴确实是不错的选择。如果继续呆在高盛时，她便无缘参与高速、高效的互联网竞争和发展进程。\n柳青还在高盛时，曾三次想投资滴滴，三次失败。其中最广为流传的一个原因是效率问题。高盛这家有上百年历史的投行严谨，需要多重的流程反复确认投资标的才能决策。但那个时间里，想给滴滴钱的知名VC都排着队，不缺高盛一家。\n通往女性企业家的“自我修养”\n2016年，英国《金融时报》如此描述柳青：滴滴友好且精通英语的代表（the friendly, English-speaking face of Didi ）。这一年柳青因乳腺癌治疗，鲜少出现媒体访谈，与Uber中国业务合并时也未出席。多家媒体对于这种“缺席”，多少有惋惜的语气。\n柳青之于滴滴，是复合型的存在。滴滴高速发展的时期，背后有她的超强融资能力以及业务整合能力。与此同时，她也是滴滴的一张“脸”。这张脸是国际化的、谈判的代表，融资时可以冲在一线。特别是2015年通过投资美国Lyft、东南亚Grab等出行公司，滴滴开启国际化业务，柳青早是全球认识滴滴的一张名片。\n女性企业家的身份，后来战胜乳腺癌，以及单身妈妈的多重身份，让柳青的角色更加多元化。而这种多元化，对于滴滴，至少在传播上是加分的。\n2016年，英国《金融时报》将她评为“年度女性”，同期入选的是前英国首相特蕾莎·梅伊、巴西前总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫、印度外长苏什玛·斯瓦拉杰等女性。同时，她也入选了美国《职业母亲》网站发布的“全球50大最具影响力母亲”榜单。2017年，柳青入选《时代》杂志的全球影响力百人榜，也是唯一一位上榜的亚洲女企业家。\n外界给高管的有影响力的褒奖，对一个家公司的宣传总是正面的。这是一家有女性高管的创业公司的独特性，放眼中国、或者全球的创业公司，这种独特性也是稀缺的。无疑，柳青也定义了滴滴。\n当然，滴滴也塑造了柳青。早期她是融资能力、业务运营超强的柳青，后来随着滴滴的发展，她的角色和工作内容也随之变化。\n2018年因顺风车安全事件，滴滴进入安全整治时期。2019年Uber上市，全球出行市场进入了一个新的阶段，市场争夺不再是关键，商业能力、业务安全且稳定是最重要的指标。也就是不需要再“打战”了，公司“做强做大”才是目标。\n比起程维，柳青在这个阶段承担的“信任官”角色。她不断出现在公众面前——任何一个国际的、国内的媒体采访、会议、峰会——不断地阐述，滴滴的痛定思痛、提升安全性、体验性。\n三年沉淀之后，滴滴的业务发展才又开始有激进的发展——2020年正式上线新品牌“花小猪”，2021年滴滴宣布进入南非。这次，柳青的角色又不一样了，她兼任了首席人才官一职，负责公司人才发展计划。《中国企业家》称，快速增长的新业务、持续拓展的海外市场需要有人才投入，发掘、激发和培养人才，而这将是柳青2021年的主要工作之一。\n要知道，刚接任张一鸣担任字节跳动CEO的梁汝波，任职的便是人力资源工作。在梁汝波做人力资源负责人这一年，字节跳动员工人数从6万升到了10万人——远远超过了阿里、腾讯等老牌大互联网公司。而2020年，也是字节跳动疯狂扩张的一年。\n换而言之，这是43岁的柳青的企业家“自我修养”的又一新角色。对柳青来说，在不同岗位、不同角色上经营一家公司，一定都是兴奋的。这话，其实是她自己说的。\n2014年，在高盛没有管理和运营经验的柳青，接过来的滴滴职位是COO（首席运营官），而不是投资人转向企业常见的岗位CFO。\n“尽管我没有管理上千人的经验，但我处理过很多生意、见过很多企业家。建立一个合适的组织，或许就在我们这一代的基因里。”不要忘了，柳青还是一位出生在北京的“企二代”，从小生活在连家务事都有整套管理考评体系的家庭。\n不过，滴滴还未上市，柳青还需努力。而且，上市之后还有上市之后的挑战——参照Uber上市后的发展，便知这件事并不容易。但对于柳青来说，无论滴滴的发展如何，IPO之后，她的企业家生涯已经算得上一份完美“简历”。实在不想做总裁了，她还能做回老本行——投资人，想必，这次会比在高盛12年时受LP欢迎。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138203683,"gmtCreate":1621939767742,"gmtModify":1704364779863,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138203683","repostId":"1169575898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169575898","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1621938896,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169575898?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 18:34","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"What impact will CATL's sodium batteries have on the market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169575898","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"钠离子电池是对锂离子电池体系的辅助补充。\n\n宁德时代董事长曾毓群对外透露，宁德时代将于2021年7月前后发布钠电池。5月24日，宁德时代股价上涨3.3%，今天继续收涨2%。\n\n在价格方面，由于钠电池系","content":"<p>Sodium-ion battery is an auxiliary supplement to lithium-ion battery system.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Chairman Zeng Yuqun revealed that CATL will release sodium batteries around July 2021. On May 24, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's stock price rose 3.3% and continued to close up 2% today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c31723c61d95e1f479842adffa242fb2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p>In terms of price, due to the new launch of sodium batteries, the price may be more expensive than lithium batteries.</p><p>From the perspective of specific material applications, CATL sodium-ion batteries have undergone significant changes in positive and negative electrodes, electrolytes, current collectors, etc.; In terms of manufacturing process, the original production line can still be used; Sodium-ion batteries have higher runaway temperatures than lithium-ion batteries, so they are safer, but they are more prone to passivation and oxidation problems.</p><p>Although sodium-ion batteries are not the latest technology, their current development lags behind lithium-ion batteries. The cost of large-scale batteries will reach 0.2-0.3 yuan/wh, and the current single energy density is 120wh/kg (the ceiling can reach 200wh/kg), the current number of cycles is 3,000. Therefore, this technology path will mainly target markets such as energy storage, base stations, low-speed vehicles, and low-end passenger cars in the future.</p><p>The market has mixed reviews on the application of this technology path. However, it is expected to alleviate the operating pressure of CATL in the short term; In the long run, its performance and cost advantages may organically impact the existing power battery market structure.</p><p><b>Commodity prices rise, gross profit margins are impacted</b></p><p>Some analysts said that CATL announced the launch of sodium batteries at this time, which was related to supply chain security.</p><p>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is a leading player in domestic power batteries. Whether it is ternary lithium or lithium iron phosphate battery technology routes, it currently ranks first in China's market share.</p><p>However, the rising price of lithium raw materials is impacting the profit margins of power battery companies.</p><p>Since the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks of various countries, led by the Federal Reserve, have released a huge amount of money. In just one year, the Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet by about 3.7 trillion US dollars, exceeding the sum of the last round of financial crises. As of April this year, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have expanded their balance sheets by US $3.9 trillion and US $1.2 trillion respectively during the same period, which is equivalent to recreating a pre-epidemic Federal Reserve.</p><p>With the accelerated popularization of vaccines, the demand of developed countries such as bottom out and Europe and the United States has recovered rapidly in the global economy. However, the recovery of third-party international supply capacity has been inconsistent, so commodities have set off waves of price increases since the beginning of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Bullish on copper, crude oil, natural gas and aluminum, with commodities expected to rise 6.8%.</p><p>Against this background, the lithium battery industry has also ushered in a wave of price increases. As of May 7, the average price of metallic lithium has increased by 20.6% this year, the average price of spodumene concentrate has increased by 46.28%, lithium carbonate has increased by more than 71.87%, and lithium hydroxide has increased by 84.1%.</p><p>It can be seen from the above data that lithium hydroxide has the most obvious increase. Obviously, in addition to excess liquidity, lithium hydroxide also has supply and demand reasons.</p><p>On the demand side, the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials has increased by 45.8% compared with the same period last year, while the price of high-nickel ternary cathode materials has only increased by 5.4% compared with the same period last year. The cost advantage of the former over ternary cathode materials is shrinking, and lithium hydroxide is the latter. Demand for one of the important raw materials has strengthened. In terms of inventory, driven by demand, the inventory of lithium hydroxide continued to decline after March this year. In addition, affected by the epidemic, the production capacity and supply of lithium raw material countries are unstable. Previously, Chile, the world's second largest lithium supplier, was closed, which significantly affected China's imports of lithium raw materials in May.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>It is estimated that the demand of the lithium industry in 2021 will be 430,000 to 520,000 tons, and the maximum supply release will be 540,000 tons. The supply and demand of the lithium industry will be tightly balanced in 2021.</p><p>Strong demand is coupled with contracting supply, so the price of lithium hydroxide continues to rise.</p><p>Under this circumstance, the problem of pressure on the gross profit margin of power battery manufacturers has emerged, and the cake and bargaining power of the industrial chain have begun to shift upstream. Since CATL may not have locked in the high-quality lithium supply chain before, the announcement of the sodium battery plan at this time can not only reduce lithium demand and suppress the price of lithium raw materials; On the other hand, it can also avoid unilateral betting, turn passivity into initiative, and open the growth curve of new technology routes.</p><p><b>What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">Guotai Junan</a>Securities stated that 70% of my country's lithium resources need to be imported, and sodium-ion batteries are the support and guarantee for lithium-ion batteries. The development of sodium-ion batteries is a good supplement to the ternary high-nickel technology route.</p><p>In addition, Cathay Pacific also stated that the current progress speed of sodium-ion batteries should reach a technical level of about 14 years of lithium-ion batteries, including cycle life, energy density, and rate performance. With the matching of raw materials, positive electrode materials, negative electrode materials and electrolytes, it may take about 3 years to actually apply on a large scale, and it is cheaper than iron phosphate cone batteries. According to the speed promoted by CATL, it will take about 2 to 3 years. time.</p><p>In view of the advantages of cheaper price expectations and higher energy density, lead-acid batteries currently used in low-speed electric vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles will be threatened, and even the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries may be further suppressed.</p><p>But at present, it seems that the sodium battery route has obvious shortcomings, so as the mainstream technology path of new energy vehicle power batteries, there is still a long way to go. As a leading company with more than 70 billion yuan in cash, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is relatively comfortable in this respect. Therefore, except for Ningde's investment, it is estimated that no company dares to put its treasure on sodium batteries. The entire industrial chain is a big problem.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>It is believed that sodium-ion batteries are not a new technology. Related research started earlier and has been applied in practice. There is no so-called \"breakthrough\" innovation, but more an iteration of technology. The energy density of sodium batteries (generally less than 120Wh/kg) is significantly lower than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries (160Wh/kg) and ternary batteries, and it has a low degree of matching with the demand for new energy vehicle batteries. There is no possibility of replacing lithium batteries as the mainstream technology in the power field.</p><p>There is no significant advantage in the actual production cost of sodium batteries at present. Although the use of relatively cheap metals can reduce raw material costs, low energy density means more auxiliary materials and manufacturing costs. From the current point of view, the substitution of sodium batteries for lithium batteries is actually very weak. Considering that sodium reserves are richer than lithium, we should pay attention to the strategic significance of sodium batteries as technical reserves to ensure energy security, but their commercial value should not be overestimated.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What impact will CATL's sodium batteries have on the market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat impact will CATL's sodium batteries have on the market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 18:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Sodium-ion battery is an auxiliary supplement to lithium-ion battery system.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Chairman Zeng Yuqun revealed that CATL will release sodium batteries around July 2021. On May 24, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's stock price rose 3.3% and continued to close up 2% today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c31723c61d95e1f479842adffa242fb2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p>In terms of price, due to the new launch of sodium batteries, the price may be more expensive than lithium batteries.</p><p>From the perspective of specific material applications, CATL sodium-ion batteries have undergone significant changes in positive and negative electrodes, electrolytes, current collectors, etc.; In terms of manufacturing process, the original production line can still be used; Sodium-ion batteries have higher runaway temperatures than lithium-ion batteries, so they are safer, but they are more prone to passivation and oxidation problems.</p><p>Although sodium-ion batteries are not the latest technology, their current development lags behind lithium-ion batteries. The cost of large-scale batteries will reach 0.2-0.3 yuan/wh, and the current single energy density is 120wh/kg (the ceiling can reach 200wh/kg), the current number of cycles is 3,000. Therefore, this technology path will mainly target markets such as energy storage, base stations, low-speed vehicles, and low-end passenger cars in the future.</p><p>The market has mixed reviews on the application of this technology path. However, it is expected to alleviate the operating pressure of CATL in the short term; In the long run, its performance and cost advantages may organically impact the existing power battery market structure.</p><p><b>Commodity prices rise, gross profit margins are impacted</b></p><p>Some analysts said that CATL announced the launch of sodium batteries at this time, which was related to supply chain security.</p><p>Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is a leading player in domestic power batteries. Whether it is ternary lithium or lithium iron phosphate battery technology routes, it currently ranks first in China's market share.</p><p>However, the rising price of lithium raw materials is impacting the profit margins of power battery companies.</p><p>Since the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks of various countries, led by the Federal Reserve, have released a huge amount of money. In just one year, the Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet by about 3.7 trillion US dollars, exceeding the sum of the last round of financial crises. As of April this year, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have expanded their balance sheets by US $3.9 trillion and US $1.2 trillion respectively during the same period, which is equivalent to recreating a pre-epidemic Federal Reserve.</p><p>With the accelerated popularization of vaccines, the demand of developed countries such as bottom out and Europe and the United States has recovered rapidly in the global economy. However, the recovery of third-party international supply capacity has been inconsistent, so commodities have set off waves of price increases since the beginning of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Bullish on copper, crude oil, natural gas and aluminum, with commodities expected to rise 6.8%.</p><p>Against this background, the lithium battery industry has also ushered in a wave of price increases. As of May 7, the average price of metallic lithium has increased by 20.6% this year, the average price of spodumene concentrate has increased by 46.28%, lithium carbonate has increased by more than 71.87%, and lithium hydroxide has increased by 84.1%.</p><p>It can be seen from the above data that lithium hydroxide has the most obvious increase. Obviously, in addition to excess liquidity, lithium hydroxide also has supply and demand reasons.</p><p>On the demand side, the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials has increased by 45.8% compared with the same period last year, while the price of high-nickel ternary cathode materials has only increased by 5.4% compared with the same period last year. The cost advantage of the former over ternary cathode materials is shrinking, and lithium hydroxide is the latter. Demand for one of the important raw materials has strengthened. In terms of inventory, driven by demand, the inventory of lithium hydroxide continued to decline after March this year. In addition, affected by the epidemic, the production capacity and supply of lithium raw material countries are unstable. Previously, Chile, the world's second largest lithium supplier, was closed, which significantly affected China's imports of lithium raw materials in May.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>It is estimated that the demand of the lithium industry in 2021 will be 430,000 to 520,000 tons, and the maximum supply release will be 540,000 tons. The supply and demand of the lithium industry will be tightly balanced in 2021.</p><p>Strong demand is coupled with contracting supply, so the price of lithium hydroxide continues to rise.</p><p>Under this circumstance, the problem of pressure on the gross profit margin of power battery manufacturers has emerged, and the cake and bargaining power of the industrial chain have begun to shift upstream. Since CATL may not have locked in the high-quality lithium supply chain before, the announcement of the sodium battery plan at this time can not only reduce lithium demand and suppress the price of lithium raw materials; On the other hand, it can also avoid unilateral betting, turn passivity into initiative, and open the growth curve of new technology routes.</p><p><b>What is the impact on the market?</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">Guotai Junan</a>Securities stated that 70% of my country's lithium resources need to be imported, and sodium-ion batteries are the support and guarantee for lithium-ion batteries. The development of sodium-ion batteries is a good supplement to the ternary high-nickel technology route.</p><p>In addition, Cathay Pacific also stated that the current progress speed of sodium-ion batteries should reach a technical level of about 14 years of lithium-ion batteries, including cycle life, energy density, and rate performance. With the matching of raw materials, positive electrode materials, negative electrode materials and electrolytes, it may take about 3 years to actually apply on a large scale, and it is cheaper than iron phosphate cone batteries. According to the speed promoted by CATL, it will take about 2 to 3 years. time.</p><p>In view of the advantages of cheaper price expectations and higher energy density, lead-acid batteries currently used in low-speed electric vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles will be threatened, and even the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries may be further suppressed.</p><p>But at present, it seems that the sodium battery route has obvious shortcomings, so as the mainstream technology path of new energy vehicle power batteries, there is still a long way to go. As a leading company with more than 70 billion yuan in cash, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited is relatively comfortable in this respect. Therefore, except for Ningde's investment, it is estimated that no company dares to put its treasure on sodium batteries. The entire industrial chain is a big problem.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>It is believed that sodium-ion batteries are not a new technology. Related research started earlier and has been applied in practice. There is no so-called \"breakthrough\" innovation, but more an iteration of technology. The energy density of sodium batteries (generally less than 120Wh/kg) is significantly lower than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries (160Wh/kg) and ternary batteries, and it has a low degree of matching with the demand for new energy vehicle batteries. There is no possibility of replacing lithium batteries as the mainstream technology in the power field.</p><p>There is no significant advantage in the actual production cost of sodium batteries at present. Although the use of relatively cheap metals can reduce raw material costs, low energy density means more auxiliary materials and manufacturing costs. From the current point of view, the substitution of sodium batteries for lithium batteries is actually very weak. Considering that sodium reserves are richer than lithium, we should pay attention to the strategic significance of sodium batteries as technical reserves to ensure energy security, but their commercial value should not be overestimated.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983e0432c72ee1117f6c5b8a19ed6e25","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169575898","content_text":"钠离子电池是对锂离子电池体系的辅助补充。\n\n宁德时代董事长曾毓群对外透露，宁德时代将于2021年7月前后发布钠电池。5月24日，宁德时代股价上涨3.3%，今天继续收涨2%。\n\n在价格方面，由于钠电池系新推出，价格可能比锂电池贵。\n从具体材料应用上看，宁德时代钠离子电池在正负极、电解液、集流体等方面都有显著变化；制造工艺方面仍可以沿用原有生产线；钠离子电池失控温度高于锂离子电池，因此更加安全，但更容易出现钝化、氧化的问题。\n钠离子电池尽管不是最新的技术，但目前发展滞后于锂离子电池，大规模化电芯成本将达到0.2-0.3元/wh，目前单体能量密度120wh/kg（天花板能够做到200wh/kg），目前循环次数在3000次。因此，该技术路径在未来主要面向储能、基站、低速车、低端乘用车等市场。\n市场对这一技术路径的应用褒贬不一。但短期内有望缓解宁德时代经营压力；长期来看，其性能、成本优势，有机可能冲击现有动力电池市场格局。\n商品价格上涨，毛利率受冲击\n有分析人士称，宁德时代在此时宣布推出钠电池，与供应链安全有关。\n宁德时代是国内动力电池龙头玩家，无论在三元锂还是磷酸铁锂电池技术路线上，目前在中国市占率都稳坐第一。\n但锂原料涨价，正在冲击动力电池公司利润率。\n新冠疫情以来，以美联储为首的各国央行释放出天量货币，美联储仅一年时间就累计扩表约3.7万亿美元，超过上一轮金融危机的总和。截至今年4月，欧洲央行和日本央行，同期分别累计扩表3.9万亿美元和1.2万亿美元，等于再造了一个疫情前的美联储。\n在疫苗的加速普及下，全球经济触底反弹，欧美等发达国家的需求迅速恢复，但第三方国际的供给能力恢复不一致，于是大宗商品年初以来掀起一波波涨价潮。高盛看涨铜、原油、天然气和铝，预计大宗商品将上涨6.8%。\n在这样的大背景下，锂电池行业也迎来了涨价潮。截至5月7日，今年以来金属锂均价上涨20.6%，锂辉石精矿均价上涨46.28%，碳酸锂上涨超71.87%，氢氧化锂涨幅达84.1%。\n从上述数据可以看出氢氧化锂涨幅最为明显，显然除了流动性过剩原因，氢氧化锂还有供求方面的原因。\n需求方面，磷酸铁锂正极材料价格较去年同期已上涨45.8%，而高镍三元正极材料价格较去年同期仅上涨5.4%，前者相比三元的成本优势在不断缩小，氢氧化锂作为后者重要原料之一需求走强。库存方面，受需求拉动，氢氧化锂今年3月后库存持续下行。另外，受疫情影响，锂原料国的产能供应不稳定。此前，全球第二大锂供应国智利封国，这显著影响5月份中国锂原料进口。\n国泰君安预计，2021年锂行业需求量为43万~52万吨，供给最大释放量为54万吨，2021年锂行业供需紧平衡。\n需求旺盛叠加供应收缩，因此氢氧化锂价格持续上行。\n在此情况下，动力电池厂商毛利率承压问题涌现，产业链蛋糕和议价权开始向上游转移。由于宁德时代此前可能没有锁定优质锂供应链，因此此时公布钠电池计划，不仅可以减少锂需求，压制锂原料价格；另一方面也可以避免单方面下注，化被动为主动，开启新技术路线增长曲线。\n对市场影响几何？\n国泰君安证券表示，我国锂资源70%都需要进口，钠离子电池是对锂离子电池的支撑和保障。发展钠离子电池是三元高镍技术路线的很好补充。\n此外国泰同时表示，目前钠离子电池进展的速度应该达到了14年左右的锂离子电池的一个技术水平，包括循环寿命，能量密度，倍率性能。随着原材料、正极材料、负极材料和电解液配合配套上去，可能3年左右时间会真正应用到规模上去，而且比磷酸铁锥电池要便宜，按照宁德时代推的速度，大概需要2~3年的时间。\n鉴于更便宜的价格预期、更高的能量密度等优势，目前用于低速电动车和两轮车领域的铅酸电池将受到威胁，甚至磷酸铁锂电池市场份额都可能被进一步打压。\n但目前看来，钠电池路线存在明显短板，因此作为新能源汽车动力电池主流技术路径，还有很长的路要走。宁德时代作为手握700多亿元现金的龙头企业，在这方面比较游刃有余，因而但除了宁德出钱投资外，估计没有哪家公司敢把宝压在钠电池上，整个产业链配套就是个大问题。\n东北证券认为，钠离子电池并非新技术，相关研究起步较早且已有实际应用，不存在所谓“突破性”创新，更多是技术的迭代。钠电池能量密度（一般不到120Wh/kg）明显低于磷酸铁锂电池（160Wh/kg）与三元电池，与新能源车电池需求匹配度低，暂无替代锂电池成为动力领域主流技术的可能性。\n当前钠电池实际生产成本并无显著优势。尽管采用相对廉价的金属可降低原料成本，但低能量密度意味着更多的辅材和制造成本。站在当前时点来看，钠电池对锂电池的替代性实际上很微弱。考虑到钠储量比锂丰富，应当重视钠电池作为技术储备、保障能源安全的战略意义，但不应过分高估其商业价值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130791738,"gmtCreate":1621564155824,"gmtModify":1704359743415,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130791738","repostId":"2136166920","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2136166920","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621563994,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2136166920?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Those big factories who are \"late\" and CEOs who \"leave early\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2136166920","media":"北京商报","summary":"5月20日，字节跳动创始人张一鸣发布内部全员信，宣布卸任CEO一职。字节跳动联合创始人梁汝波将接任成为新CEO。\n张一鸣向后，梁汝波向前。有媒体总结字节跳动有一批冲锋陷阵的大将，而梁汝波或是那个最适合","content":"<p><div>On May 20, Zhang Yiming, founder of ByteDance, issued an internal letter to all employees, announcing his resignation as CEO. ByteDance co-founder Liang Rubo will take over as the new CEO. Zhang Yiming moved backwards and Liang Rubo moved forward. Some media concluded that ByteDance has a group of generals who are taking the lead, and Liang Rubo may be the confidant who is most suitable for managing \"managers\". The future development of ByteDance will unfold between the two in tandem. Zhang Yiming said in an internal letter that he first proposed this idea on a small scale in the company in March this year, and this happened to be the time when Huang Zheng announced his resignation. Maybe it's just a coincidence of timing, but you two...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2021-05-20/doc-ikmyaawc6541679.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"BJSB","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Those big factories who are \"late\" and CEOs who \"leave early\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThose big factories who are \"late\" and CEOs who \"leave early\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">北京商报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 10:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On May 20, Zhang Yiming, founder of ByteDance, issued an internal letter to all employees, announcing his resignation as CEO. ByteDance co-founder Liang Rubo will take over as the new CEO. Zhang Yiming moved backwards and Liang Rubo moved forward. Some media concluded that ByteDance has a group of generals who are taking the lead, and Liang Rubo may be the confidant who is most suitable for managing \"managers\". The future development of ByteDance will unfold between the two in tandem. Zhang Yiming said in an internal letter that he first proposed this idea on a small scale in the company in March this year, and this happened to be the time when Huang Zheng announced his resignation. Maybe it's just a coincidence of timing, but you two...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2021-05-20/doc-ikmyaawc6541679.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2021-05-20/doc-ikmyaawc6541679.shtml\">北京商报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b50ae53ea44ea20fb5890e62e74584","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2021-05-20/doc-ikmyaawc6541679.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2136166920","content_text":"5月20日，字节跳动创始人张一鸣发布内部全员信，宣布卸任CEO一职。字节跳动联合创始人梁汝波将接任成为新CEO。\n张一鸣向后，梁汝波向前。有媒体总结字节跳动有一批冲锋陷阵的大将，而梁汝波或是那个最适合管理“管理者”的心腹之人。字节跳动未来的发展之路，将在两人的一前一后之间展开。\n张一鸣在内部信中称，他最早在公司小范围提议这个想法是今年3月，而这正好是黄峥宣布卸任的时间。或许只是时间上凑巧，但两位创始人的想法却十分相似。\n除了想法相似，两人背后不少故事也雷同。作为正当年的80后创始人，两个人不仅年轻，身后的公司出名趁早，成长极快，实现了外界眼中不可能的可能，在看似已饱和的市场突出重围。\n唯一不同的是，张一鸣比黄铮更急，没等到自己的不惑之年。\n不同于字节跳动对“算法”的重视与成功使用，张一鸣对自己的总结，既不精确还充满了“浪漫”。“浪漫就是想象理论上可能发生但现实中还不存在的有趣的事物。”\n张一鸣心中还有哪些事物有趣？黄峥心里哪些事情放不下？远景规划、长期战略、企业文化，食品科学和生命科学领域的研究……看上去都是，一定又都不是。\n早期的BAT头领，李彦宏和马化腾依然守在一线，刘强东看似卸下多个高管职位，但依然大权在手运筹帷幄，马云退休前经历了漫长的铺垫，选择接班人时也并非一蹴而就。\n“曲折的故事只是读者看起来精彩而已，你要快速发展，不能太曲折。”张一鸣用6年完成了从程序员到 CEO 的系统升级。而卸任CEO的想法到决定，从内部信看，只用了三个月。\n这一届年轻创始人画风变了。他们有自己的思想，但不一定喜欢当意见领袖。他们有一套自己的逻辑，却不一定轻易示人。他们的公司风生水起，但他们自己不怎么喜欢抛头露面。\n有人说他们擅长激流勇退，又或者只是随机应变。字节跳动用了7年成了最有价值的初创公司。而拼多多只用了5年，成为电商里的“今日头条”。他们比上一代互联网大公司用更短的时间触及到了天花板。\n正因为公司成长得快，很多事情比预想来得更早。字节跳动从2017年开始，走向了全球战场，借由TikTok等产品取得了中国互联网公司未曾得到过的成功。如今看来，这份成功喜忧参半，未来依然变数重重。\n在平台反垄断的大潮中，拼多多亦不可能置身事外。虽然未来仍然有增长空间，越来越重的业务，开始让拼多多的想象空间变得有限，激烈的行业竞争，依然游走在规模和效率的层次，\n何尝不是危险。\n进退之间，“早退”的CEO，试图完成社会身份的重新定位，而“迟到”的大厂，将有机会在有限的现实和无限的想象中再次出发。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195494725,"gmtCreate":1621306100067,"gmtModify":1704355497107,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/195494725","repostId":"2136957700","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2136957700","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621305848,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2136957700?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-18 10:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Different from the previous two times, this round of commodity surge is a bit special","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2136957700","media":"智通财经","summary":"与2008年和2011年大宗商品价格反弹不同，近来大宗商品价格持续飙升，但澳大利亚等主要大宗商品出口国的国债收益率和货币波动不大。同样，美联储较为看重的通胀预期指标也与原材料价格走势脱节。\n造成这种现","content":"<p>Unlike the rebound in commodity prices in 2008 and 2011, commodity prices have continued to soar recently, but Treasury Bond yields and currencies in major commodity exporting countries such as Australias have been less volatile. Similarly, the inflation expectation indicator that the Federal Reserve values more is out of touch with the trend of raw material prices.</p><p>The main reason for this phenomenon is the credibility of the central bank. Led by the Federal Reserve, major central banks have indicated that they will keep interest rates low for a long time, believing that high inflation is only temporary. Now that the central bank has promised to maintain the loose policy, this makes investors afraid to rush in the opposite direction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f839f3910dac92f3c0d9b1b1b4cffd1c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Price growth is expected to rise, but remains benign, by the Fed's measure.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Kerry Craig, a global market strategist in Melbourne, said, \"This major change in commodity prices is also due to central bank policies. At present, the ultra-loose monetary policy puts pressure on the exchange rate. Otherwise, the exchange rate will also increase significantly during the commodity rising cycle.</p><p>The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have become indisputable backward currencies, and the fate of these two major currencies depends largely on the commodities consumed by China's economy. Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars have risen less than 0.5% in the past three months. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has soared nearly 5% after the Bank of Canada signaled it could pull back its monetary easing program.</p><p>Last week, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar led the decline in G10 currencies, and the U.S. CPI and PPI data both surprisingly rose. After China released strong PPI data, global inflation expectations further heated. However, after the PPI data was relatively calm, with the 5-year and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling back with the weakening of the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5d54b874e28aec5c9c2de6c3c4312fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Fed's newly launched \"common inflation expectations\" measure is currently hovering around 2%, a level officials hope to see beat expectations for some time. At the same time, the prices of different materials such as copper, cotton, rubber, wood, and semiconductors are also accelerating amid supply disruptions and surging demand.</p><p>This inconsistency between the central bank's actions and economic data reflects that the central bank's economic regulation and control mode is changing in the current era. At present, the Fed is committed to overheating the economy, which is partly upsetting the market because it means that the Fed will change its previous strategy: preemptively curbing inflation.</p><p>The message is being delivered to Australian and New Zealand dollar traders, while for other market participants, hints of monetary policy tightening are giving them reason to flock.</p><p>Stephen Miller, an investment adviser to GSFM in Sydney, said that \"the Bank of Canada and the Norges Bank are the only central banks in the developed world that have made it clear that they are considering exiting easing policies.\" A branch of Canada's CI Financial Corporation said that \"the RBA has been heavily advocating to keep the Australian dollar lower amid surging iron ore prices.\"</p><p>A closer look at the breakeven rate provides further evidence that investors have largely not acted on inflation concerns. The U.S. 10-year breakeven rate has jumped to an eight-year high, but looking at the long-term trend, this does not send a clear message of runaway inflation.</p><p>Cornerstone Macro analysts led by former Federal Reserve official Roberto Perli and others wrote in a May 11 report that if underlying inflation is the trigger, then spot and forward breakeven inflation expectations should be tilted upward. But now the curve is inverted, indicating that the market is betting that inflation is a temporary situation.</p><p>Looking ahead, continued higher raw material prices and hints that salary levels may rise further may begin to affect the effectiveness of the message conveyed by the Federal Reserve, providing impetus for investors to react more.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O39.SI\">OCBC Bank</a>Economist Howie Lee said in a May 11 report that \"the recent new highs in metal prices may be just the beginning.\"</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Different from the previous two times, this round of commodity surge is a bit special</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDifferent from the previous two times, this round of commodity surge is a bit special\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-18 10:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Unlike the rebound in commodity prices in 2008 and 2011, commodity prices have continued to soar recently, but Treasury Bond yields and currencies in major commodity exporting countries such as Australias have been less volatile. Similarly, the inflation expectation indicator that the Federal Reserve values more is out of touch with the trend of raw material prices.</p><p>The main reason for this phenomenon is the credibility of the central bank. Led by the Federal Reserve, major central banks have indicated that they will keep interest rates low for a long time, believing that high inflation is only temporary. Now that the central bank has promised to maintain the loose policy, this makes investors afraid to rush in the opposite direction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f839f3910dac92f3c0d9b1b1b4cffd1c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Price growth is expected to rise, but remains benign, by the Fed's measure.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Kerry Craig, a global market strategist in Melbourne, said, \"This major change in commodity prices is also due to central bank policies. At present, the ultra-loose monetary policy puts pressure on the exchange rate. Otherwise, the exchange rate will also increase significantly during the commodity rising cycle.</p><p>The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have become indisputable backward currencies, and the fate of these two major currencies depends largely on the commodities consumed by China's economy. Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars have risen less than 0.5% in the past three months. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has soared nearly 5% after the Bank of Canada signaled it could pull back its monetary easing program.</p><p>Last week, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar led the decline in G10 currencies, and the U.S. CPI and PPI data both surprisingly rose. After China released strong PPI data, global inflation expectations further heated. However, after the PPI data was relatively calm, with the 5-year and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling back with the weakening of the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5d54b874e28aec5c9c2de6c3c4312fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Fed's newly launched \"common inflation expectations\" measure is currently hovering around 2%, a level officials hope to see beat expectations for some time. At the same time, the prices of different materials such as copper, cotton, rubber, wood, and semiconductors are also accelerating amid supply disruptions and surging demand.</p><p>This inconsistency between the central bank's actions and economic data reflects that the central bank's economic regulation and control mode is changing in the current era. At present, the Fed is committed to overheating the economy, which is partly upsetting the market because it means that the Fed will change its previous strategy: preemptively curbing inflation.</p><p>The message is being delivered to Australian and New Zealand dollar traders, while for other market participants, hints of monetary policy tightening are giving them reason to flock.</p><p>Stephen Miller, an investment adviser to GSFM in Sydney, said that \"the Bank of Canada and the Norges Bank are the only central banks in the developed world that have made it clear that they are considering exiting easing policies.\" A branch of Canada's CI Financial Corporation said that \"the RBA has been heavily advocating to keep the Australian dollar lower amid surging iron ore prices.\"</p><p>A closer look at the breakeven rate provides further evidence that investors have largely not acted on inflation concerns. The U.S. 10-year breakeven rate has jumped to an eight-year high, but looking at the long-term trend, this does not send a clear message of runaway inflation.</p><p>Cornerstone Macro analysts led by former Federal Reserve official Roberto Perli and others wrote in a May 11 report that if underlying inflation is the trigger, then spot and forward breakeven inflation expectations should be tilted upward. But now the curve is inverted, indicating that the market is betting that inflation is a temporary situation.</p><p>Looking ahead, continued higher raw material prices and hints that salary levels may rise further may begin to affect the effectiveness of the message conveyed by the Federal Reserve, providing impetus for investors to react more.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O39.SI\">OCBC Bank</a>Economist Howie Lee said in a May 11 report that \"the recent new highs in metal prices may be just the beginning.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/476958.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59173f284ebbaeca7a7533691a2e3051","relate_stocks":{"161715":"大宗商品","000979.SH":"大宗商品"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/476958.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2136957700","content_text":"与2008年和2011年大宗商品价格反弹不同，近来大宗商品价格持续飙升，但澳大利亚等主要大宗商品出口国的国债收益率和货币波动不大。同样，美联储较为看重的通胀预期指标也与原材料价格走势脱节。\n造成这种现象的最主要原因是央行的信誉。以美联储为首，各大央行表示长期将维持低利率，认为高通胀只是暂时的。既然央行承诺将维持宽松政策，这使得投资者也不敢贸然反向操作。\n\n根据美联储的衡量标准，价格增长预期上升，但仍然是良性的。摩根大通驻墨尔本全球市场策略师Kerry Craig表示，“这次大宗商品价格重大变化也是因为央行政策，目前，超宽松的货币政策使汇率成压，否则，在大宗商品上涨周期，汇率也会有较大涨幅。\n澳元和纽元成为了无可争辩的落后货币，这两种主要货币的命运很大程度上取决于中国经济所消耗的大宗商品。过去三个月里，澳元和纽元都只上涨了不到0.5%。与此同时，加拿大央行暗示可能收回货币宽松计划，加元已飙升近5%。\n上周，澳元、纽元领跌G10货币，美国CPI和PPI数据均意外上扬，在中国公布强劲的PPI数据后，全球通胀预期进一步升温。然而，PPI数据公布后，市场反应相对平静，5年期和10年期国债收益率随美元走弱而回落。\n\n美联储新推出的“共同通胀预期”指标目前正徘徊在2%左右，官员们希望看到这一水平在一段时间内超出预期。与此同时，在供应中断和需求激增的情况下，铜、棉花、橡胶、木材以及半导体等不同材料的价格也在加速上涨。\n这种央行行动和经济数据的不一致折射出当前时代央行经济调控方式正在发生变化。目前美联储致力于让经济过热，这在一定程度上让市场感到不安，因为这意味着美联储将改变以往战略：先发制人抑制通胀。\n这一信息正在传递给澳元和纽元交易员，而对其他市场参与者来说，货币政策收紧的暗示正让他们有理由蜂拥而至。\nGSFM驻悉尼投资顾问Stephen Miller表示，“加拿大央行和挪威央行是发达国家唯一明确表示正在考虑退出宽松政策的央行。”加拿大CI金融公司旗下的一家分支机构表示，“澳大利亚央行一直在大力鼓吹，在铁矿石价格飙升的情况下保持澳元走低。”\n仔细观察盈亏平衡利率，可以进一步证明投资者基本上没有对通胀担忧采取行动。美国10年期盈亏平衡利率已跃升至8年高点，但从长期趋势来看，这并没有发出明显的通胀失控信息。\n美联储前官员Roberto Perli等为首的Cornerstone Macro分析师在5月11日的报告中写道，如果潜在的通货膨胀是触发因素，那么即期和远期的盈亏平衡通胀率预期应该向上倾斜。但现在曲线是倒挂的，说明市场押注通胀是暂时情况。\n展望未来，原材料价格持续走高以及薪资水平可能进一步上涨的暗示可能会开始影响美联储所传达的信息效力，为投资者做出更多反应提供动力。\n华侨银行经济学家Howie Lee在5月11日的报告中表示，“金属价格近期新高可能仅仅是开始”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161715":0.9,"000979.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020368035,"gmtCreate":1652579821127,"gmtModify":1676535123251,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>good stock to buy. A lot of potential","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>good stock to buy. A lot of potential","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$good stock to buy. A lot of potential","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020368035","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114832795,"gmtCreate":1623064241017,"gmtModify":1704195289168,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114832795","repostId":"1199907200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199907200","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623063101,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199907200?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 18:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199907200","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示，他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。","content":"<p>Amazon founder Bezos said he himself and his brother will participate in Blue Origin's spaceflight scheduled for July.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-07 18:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon founder Bezos said he himself and his brother will participate in Blue Origin's spaceflight scheduled for July.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5c24ebb3777a08add85d8b2a6ba661e","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199907200","content_text":"亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示，他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114832238,"gmtCreate":1623064228124,"gmtModify":1704195288839,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114832238","repostId":"1199907200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199907200","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623063101,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199907200?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 18:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199907200","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示，他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。","content":"<p>Amazon founder Bezos said he himself and his brother will participate in Blue Origin's spaceflight scheduled for July.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-07 18:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon founder Bezos said he himself and his brother will participate in Blue Origin's spaceflight scheduled for July.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5c24ebb3777a08add85d8b2a6ba661e","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199907200","content_text":"亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示，他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132461175,"gmtCreate":1622107752697,"gmtModify":1704179595084,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132461175","repostId":"2138140998","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138140998","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622105065,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138140998?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-27 16:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The number of users has exceeded 800 million, surpassing Alibaba, what will Pinduoduo do next?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138140998","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"财报显示，第一季度拼多多营收221.7亿元，同比增长239%；非通用会计准则下，归属于普通股股东的净亏损为18.903亿元，同比大幅收窄；截至2021年3月31日，拼多多年度活跃买家数达到8.238亿，较上一年同期净增1.957亿。本季度，拼多多营销服务收入为141.1亿元，同比增长157%，创下近一年多以来的新高。所以，拼多多下一步要做什么，用David Liu的话来说，就是要提高用户的粘性。","content":"<p>On the evening of May 26, Pinduoduo released its financial report for the first quarter of 2021. This is also the first financial report after Huang Zheng stepped down as chairman and Chen Lei took over as chairman.</p><p>The financial report shows that Pinduoduo's revenue in the first quarter was 22.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 239%; Under non-GAAP, the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 1.8903 billion yuan, a significant narrowing year-on-year; As of March 31, 2021, the number of annual active buyers in Pinduoduo reached 823.8 million, a net increase of 195.7 million over the same period last year.</p><p>Judging from these core data alone, Pinduoduo's report card seems to be pretty good. However, Pinduoduo's stock price bucked the trend and fell by more than 5% despite the general strength of technology stocks, which makes people wonder: Is Pinduoduo dying? After Huang Zheng steps down, can Chen Lei hold on to Pinduoduo's fundamentals? When the annual active buyers gradually touch the ceiling, where is Pinduoduo's growth point? This issue of Penguin Decoding reveals the secret for you.</p><p><b>Self-operated product sales stimulate revenue surge</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d698512649687888aa0083d9e2a3bb5\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the fourth quarter of last year, Pinduoduo has launched a self-operated model, and the item of \"commodity revenue\" has also been added to its financial report. It is precisely because of this change that Pinduoduo's revenue growth rate has returned to above 100% since last year, and reached 239% in this quarter, setting a new high in the past two years. Since there was no \"commodity revenue\" in the second and third quarters of last year, Pinduoduo's revenue growth rate is expected to maintain rapid growth.</p><p>Different from the previous financial report, Pinduoduo did not announce the annualized GMV, so it is impossible to intuitively see the improvement of Pinduoduo's GMV by the self-operated business. However, in the conference call after the financial report, Cai Majing, vice president of finance of Pinduoduo, said that self-operated business is a channel made by the platform to temporarily meet the needs of consumers when merchants cannot meet the needs of consumers. This business is not Pinduoduo's strategic focus, so the GMV generated is very small for the overall platform.</p><p>Last quarter, Pinduoduo's annualized GMV was 1.67 trillion yuan, which was allocated to approximately 417.5 billion yuan per quarter. This quarter, Pinduoduo's revenue from self-operation was 5.124 billion yuan. It can be seen that this part contributed a lot to the growth of revenue, but it did have a very small impact on the improvement of GMV.</p><p>In addition, if this part is excluded, Pinduoduo's revenue is 17.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.64%, and the growth rate is a new high since the second half of 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13abbd9d6ae21bfd2934ecf3dd120f09\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from Pinduoduo's current revenue structure, commodity sales revenue has become the second largest business, and the largest business is still marketing services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e9c2aeb7995c7e8ab261b486215a95\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This quarter, Pinduoduo's marketing service revenue was 14.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 157%, setting a new high in more than a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2144822e2487bd30e637185daae3a88e\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although transaction service revenue accounts for the smallest proportion of Pinduoduo's revenue structure, the changes in this quarter are worth noting: revenue was 2.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180%. The former hit a record high, and the latter hit a new high in the past two years.</p><p>Some analysts also raised questions about this high growth during the conference call. In this regard, Ma Jing's answer is: first, driven by the growth of sales in the first quarter, and second, driven by the revenue growth of Duoduo's grocery shopping business.</p><p>But this answer did not uncover all the doubts. The fourth quarter of each year, due to the double 11 shopping spree, is the peak sales season of e-commerce platforms every year, and the revenue is significantly higher than other quarters. Pinduoduo is no exception, so the transaction service fee is in the fourth quarter of each year. It should also be the highest, and the first quarter of the following year should decrease month-on-month.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, Pinduoduo's revenue fell by more than 4 billion yuan month-on-month. Theoretically, transaction service fees should also decline month-on-month, but the actual situation is that transaction service fees increased by 660 million yuan month-on-month. Therefore, it is still a question how Pinduoduo did it.</p><p><b>The proportion of marketing expenditure in revenue dropped significantly</b></p><p>Although the self-operated business has driven a surge in revenue, it has also been followed by a surge in revenue costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e64f8819e655e3dfa16c973912565e\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the fourth quarter of last year, Pinduoduo's revenue cost has exceeded 10 billion yuan in one fell swoop, reaching 10.75 billion yuan this quarter, a year-on-year increase of 487%, far exceeding the revenue growth rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a03e45af744fc4bd761a04598c092a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A direct consequence of the surge in revenue costs is the decline in gross profit. In the past few quarters, Pinduoduo's gross profit margin has always remained above 70%, but since the fourth quarter of last year, it has plummeted to 56.58%, and this quarter has further dropped to 51.52%. It is expected that Pinduoduo will gross profit margin for a long time. The profit margin cannot return to a high point.</p><p>In addition, the above picture also makes many people confused: Pinduoduo's gross profit margin is so high, why will it not be profitable for a long time? The answer is: Pinduoduo's marketing expenses remain high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a972a9bd17d86f6a47abfe83b1eb185a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Pinduoduo's marketing expenses have exceeded 14 billion yuan for two consecutive quarters, and the growth rate of 157% has also reached a new high in the past two years, which is inseparable from the fact that Pinduoduo is increasing its support for Duoduomaicai.</p><p>But David Liu, vice president of strategy at Pinduoduo, mentioned in the conference call that the proportion of overall marketing expenses in revenue is declining.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fe586c6f8ba26db5733db3498d5727\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Two years ago, Pinduoduo's marketing expenses exceeded revenue, accounting for more than 100%, but then this data has been greatly improved. In the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, they were only 55.42% and 63.66% respectively..</p><p>This shows that Pinduoduo's marketing efficiency has improved, that is, marketing expenses have been reduced accordingly, which has not affected the growth of revenue. David Liu also said that Duoduo's grocery shopping business better meets the needs of users and expands the company's ability to fulfill contracts. These users also purchase more frequently. In terms of marketing expenditure, the company will also benefit in the long run.</p><p>In addition, the decline in the proportion of marketing expenses has also greatly improved Pinduoduo's profitability. In the first quarter of last year, marketing expenses accounted for 111.55%, so the loss in the same period reached 3.17 billion yuan, while this year it was only 1.89 billion yuan, which narrowed significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Improving user stickiness becomes Pinduoduo's next focus</b></p><p>In the conference call last quarter, David Liu warned: Given the current scale of users in Pinduoduo, I think it is inevitable that the growth rate of users will slow down in the next time. Combined with this quarter's data, unfortunately, it's right.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd1f29dff47a475b5a5244890aecfec\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As of March 31, Pinduoduo's annual active buyers reached 823.8 million, higher than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>811 million was announced not long ago, but it increased by 35.4 million quarter-on-quarter, setting a record low since the second quarter of 2019. So, what Pinduoduo will do next, in David Liu's words, is to improve user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfd024d1766a8c415add428c633cc71\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the past, Pinduoduo would publish the annual consumption data of active buyers in its financial report, but it was not disclosed in this quarter, so we can't intuitively see whether user stickiness has improved.</p><p>However, it can be seen from the many speeches of Pinduoduo executives that there are two ways for Pinduoduo to achieve this goal: one is to attract more brand merchants to settle in and expand categories, and the other is to buy more food. Among them, the latter is particularly important.</p><p>David Liu also revealed the latest progress of Duoduomaicai: At present, Duoduomaicai has carried out business in more than 300 major cities, and with the continuous improvement of local infrastructure, it has also brought the consumer behavior we want.</p><p>However, community group buying is gradually being brought into the scope of supervision. In March of this year, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed penalties on several leading community group buying companies, believing that these companies had behaviors such as \"burning money to grab the market and raising prices after monopoly.\" This status quo may bring some uncertainties to Pinduoduo's future plans.</p>","source":"lsy1580517846866","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The number of users has exceeded 800 million, surpassing Alibaba, what will Pinduoduo do next?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe number of users has exceeded 800 million, surpassing Alibaba, what will Pinduoduo do next?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-27 16:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On the evening of May 26, Pinduoduo released its financial report for the first quarter of 2021. This is also the first financial report after Huang Zheng stepped down as chairman and Chen Lei took over as chairman.</p><p>The financial report shows that Pinduoduo's revenue in the first quarter was 22.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 239%; Under non-GAAP, the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 1.8903 billion yuan, a significant narrowing year-on-year; As of March 31, 2021, the number of annual active buyers in Pinduoduo reached 823.8 million, a net increase of 195.7 million over the same period last year.</p><p>Judging from these core data alone, Pinduoduo's report card seems to be pretty good. However, Pinduoduo's stock price bucked the trend and fell by more than 5% despite the general strength of technology stocks, which makes people wonder: Is Pinduoduo dying? After Huang Zheng steps down, can Chen Lei hold on to Pinduoduo's fundamentals? When the annual active buyers gradually touch the ceiling, where is Pinduoduo's growth point? This issue of Penguin Decoding reveals the secret for you.</p><p><b>Self-operated product sales stimulate revenue surge</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d698512649687888aa0083d9e2a3bb5\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the fourth quarter of last year, Pinduoduo has launched a self-operated model, and the item of \"commodity revenue\" has also been added to its financial report. It is precisely because of this change that Pinduoduo's revenue growth rate has returned to above 100% since last year, and reached 239% in this quarter, setting a new high in the past two years. Since there was no \"commodity revenue\" in the second and third quarters of last year, Pinduoduo's revenue growth rate is expected to maintain rapid growth.</p><p>Different from the previous financial report, Pinduoduo did not announce the annualized GMV, so it is impossible to intuitively see the improvement of Pinduoduo's GMV by the self-operated business. However, in the conference call after the financial report, Cai Majing, vice president of finance of Pinduoduo, said that self-operated business is a channel made by the platform to temporarily meet the needs of consumers when merchants cannot meet the needs of consumers. This business is not Pinduoduo's strategic focus, so the GMV generated is very small for the overall platform.</p><p>Last quarter, Pinduoduo's annualized GMV was 1.67 trillion yuan, which was allocated to approximately 417.5 billion yuan per quarter. This quarter, Pinduoduo's revenue from self-operation was 5.124 billion yuan. It can be seen that this part contributed a lot to the growth of revenue, but it did have a very small impact on the improvement of GMV.</p><p>In addition, if this part is excluded, Pinduoduo's revenue is 17.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.64%, and the growth rate is a new high since the second half of 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13abbd9d6ae21bfd2934ecf3dd120f09\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from Pinduoduo's current revenue structure, commodity sales revenue has become the second largest business, and the largest business is still marketing services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e9c2aeb7995c7e8ab261b486215a95\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This quarter, Pinduoduo's marketing service revenue was 14.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 157%, setting a new high in more than a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2144822e2487bd30e637185daae3a88e\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although transaction service revenue accounts for the smallest proportion of Pinduoduo's revenue structure, the changes in this quarter are worth noting: revenue was 2.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180%. The former hit a record high, and the latter hit a new high in the past two years.</p><p>Some analysts also raised questions about this high growth during the conference call. In this regard, Ma Jing's answer is: first, driven by the growth of sales in the first quarter, and second, driven by the revenue growth of Duoduo's grocery shopping business.</p><p>But this answer did not uncover all the doubts. The fourth quarter of each year, due to the double 11 shopping spree, is the peak sales season of e-commerce platforms every year, and the revenue is significantly higher than other quarters. Pinduoduo is no exception, so the transaction service fee is in the fourth quarter of each year. It should also be the highest, and the first quarter of the following year should decrease month-on-month.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, Pinduoduo's revenue fell by more than 4 billion yuan month-on-month. Theoretically, transaction service fees should also decline month-on-month, but the actual situation is that transaction service fees increased by 660 million yuan month-on-month. Therefore, it is still a question how Pinduoduo did it.</p><p><b>The proportion of marketing expenditure in revenue dropped significantly</b></p><p>Although the self-operated business has driven a surge in revenue, it has also been followed by a surge in revenue costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e64f8819e655e3dfa16c973912565e\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the fourth quarter of last year, Pinduoduo's revenue cost has exceeded 10 billion yuan in one fell swoop, reaching 10.75 billion yuan this quarter, a year-on-year increase of 487%, far exceeding the revenue growth rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a03e45af744fc4bd761a04598c092a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A direct consequence of the surge in revenue costs is the decline in gross profit. In the past few quarters, Pinduoduo's gross profit margin has always remained above 70%, but since the fourth quarter of last year, it has plummeted to 56.58%, and this quarter has further dropped to 51.52%. It is expected that Pinduoduo will gross profit margin for a long time. The profit margin cannot return to a high point.</p><p>In addition, the above picture also makes many people confused: Pinduoduo's gross profit margin is so high, why will it not be profitable for a long time? The answer is: Pinduoduo's marketing expenses remain high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a972a9bd17d86f6a47abfe83b1eb185a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Pinduoduo's marketing expenses have exceeded 14 billion yuan for two consecutive quarters, and the growth rate of 157% has also reached a new high in the past two years, which is inseparable from the fact that Pinduoduo is increasing its support for Duoduomaicai.</p><p>But David Liu, vice president of strategy at Pinduoduo, mentioned in the conference call that the proportion of overall marketing expenses in revenue is declining.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fe586c6f8ba26db5733db3498d5727\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Two years ago, Pinduoduo's marketing expenses exceeded revenue, accounting for more than 100%, but then this data has been greatly improved. In the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, they were only 55.42% and 63.66% respectively..</p><p>This shows that Pinduoduo's marketing efficiency has improved, that is, marketing expenses have been reduced accordingly, which has not affected the growth of revenue. David Liu also said that Duoduo's grocery shopping business better meets the needs of users and expands the company's ability to fulfill contracts. These users also purchase more frequently. In terms of marketing expenditure, the company will also benefit in the long run.</p><p>In addition, the decline in the proportion of marketing expenses has also greatly improved Pinduoduo's profitability. In the first quarter of last year, marketing expenses accounted for 111.55%, so the loss in the same period reached 3.17 billion yuan, while this year it was only 1.89 billion yuan, which narrowed significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Improving user stickiness becomes Pinduoduo's next focus</b></p><p>In the conference call last quarter, David Liu warned: Given the current scale of users in Pinduoduo, I think it is inevitable that the growth rate of users will slow down in the next time. Combined with this quarter's data, unfortunately, it's right.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd1f29dff47a475b5a5244890aecfec\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As of March 31, Pinduoduo's annual active buyers reached 823.8 million, higher than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>811 million was announced not long ago, but it increased by 35.4 million quarter-on-quarter, setting a record low since the second quarter of 2019. So, what Pinduoduo will do next, in David Liu's words, is to improve user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfd024d1766a8c415add428c633cc71\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the past, Pinduoduo would publish the annual consumption data of active buyers in its financial report, but it was not disclosed in this quarter, so we can't intuitively see whether user stickiness has improved.</p><p>However, it can be seen from the many speeches of Pinduoduo executives that there are two ways for Pinduoduo to achieve this goal: one is to attract more brand merchants to settle in and expand categories, and the other is to buy more food. Among them, the latter is particularly important.</p><p>David Liu also revealed the latest progress of Duoduomaicai: At present, Duoduomaicai has carried out business in more than 300 major cities, and with the continuous improvement of local infrastructure, it has also brought the consumer behavior we want.</p><p>However, community group buying is gradually being brought into the scope of supervision. In March of this year, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed penalties on several leading community group buying companies, believing that these companies had behaviors such as \"burning money to grab the market and raising prices after monopoly.\" This status quo may bring some uncertainties to Pinduoduo's future plans.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/omn/TEC20210/TEC2021052700661100.html\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e27455b9be3cc5a8935393c433d3875","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/omn/TEC20210/TEC2021052700661100.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138140998","content_text":"5月26日晚间，拼多多发布了2021年第一季度财报，这也是黄峥卸任董事长、陈磊接任董事长之后的首份财报。\n财报显示，第一季度拼多多营收221.7亿元，同比增长239%；非通用会计准则下，归属于普通股股东的净亏损为18.903亿元，同比大幅收窄；截至2021年3月31日，拼多多年度活跃买家数达到8.238亿，较上一年同期净增1.957亿。\n单从这几个核心数据上看，拼多多的成绩单似乎还不错。但拼多多股价却在科技股普遍走强的情况下，逆势下挫超5%，不禁让人怀疑：拼多多不行了吗？黄峥卸任之后，陈磊能否守住拼多多的基本盘？年度活跃买家逐渐触碰天花板的时候，拼多多的增长点又在哪儿？本期《企鹅解码》为您揭秘。\n自营商品销售刺激营收大涨\n\n从去年第四季度开始，拼多多上线了自营模式，财报中也开始加入了“商品收入”一项。也正是由于这个变化，拼多多营收增速从去年开始重回100%之上，在本季度更是达到了239%，创下近两年新高。由于去年二三季度没有“商品收入”，预计拼多多的营收增速仍将维持高速增长。\n与之前财报不同，拼多多并没有公布年化GMV，因此无法直观看出自营业务对拼多多GMV的改善。但在财报结束后的电话会议上，拼多多财务副总裁财马靖表示，自营业务是在商家无法满足消费者需求的时候，平台所做的一个暂时满足需求的渠道，这个业务并不是拼多多的战略重点，所以产生的GMV对于整体平台来说是非常小的。\n上个季度，拼多多的年化GMV为1.67万亿元，分摊到每个季度约为4175亿元。本季度，拼多多来自自营的收入为51.24亿元，由此可见这部分对于营收的增长贡献很多，但对于GMV的提升，确实影响非常小。\n此外，如果将这部分刨除的话，拼多多的营收为170.46亿元，同比增长160.64%，增速为2019年下半年以来的新高。\n\n从拼多多当前营收结构来看，商品销售收入已成为第二大业务，第一大业务仍为营销服务。\n\n本季度，拼多多营销服务收入为141.1亿元，同比增长157%，创下近一年多以来的新高。\n\n交易服务收入虽然在拼多多的营收结构中占比最小，但是本季度的变化却值得注意：收入29.3亿元，同比增长180%，前者创下历史新高，后者创下近两年多以来的新高。\n也有分析师在电话会议上对这一高增长提出了疑问。对此，马靖的回答是：一是受一季度销售额的增长推动，二是受多多买菜业务营收增长的推动。\n但这个回答并没有揭开所有疑团。每年的第四季度，由于有双11购物狂欢，因此是电商平台每年的销售最旺季，营收也要显著高于其他季度，拼多多也并不例外，所以交易服务费用在每年的第四季度也应该是最高的，而次年的第一季度应该会环比下降。\n今年一季度拼多多的营收环比下降超40亿元，从理论上来看，交易服务费用也应该环比下滑，但实际情况是，交易服务费用环比增长了6.6亿元。因此，拼多多究竟是如何做到的，仍是一个疑问。\n营销支出占营收比重下降明显\n自营业务虽然带动营收大涨，但随之而来的也是营收成本的激增。\n\n从去年第四季度开始，拼多多的营收成本一举突破了100亿元，本季度达到了107.5亿元，同比增长487%，远超营收的增速。\n\n营收成本大增带来的一个直接后果就是毛利润的下滑。过去几个季度，拼多多的毛利率始终维持在70%以上，但是从去年第四季度开始，骤降至56.58%，本季度进一步降至51.52%，预计拼多多将在很长一段时间内，毛利率无法回至高点。\n此外，上图也让很多人产生一个困惑：拼多多的毛利率如此之高，为何会长期无法盈利？答案就在于：拼多多的市场营销费用居高不下。\n\n拼多多用于营销的费用已经连续两个季度超过了140亿元，157%的增速也创下了近两年的新高，这与拼多多正在加大对多多买菜的扶持分不开。\n但拼多多战略副总裁David Liu在电话会议上提到，整个营销费用在营收当中的占比是在下滑。\n\n两年前，拼多多的营销费用还超过营收，占比超过100%，但随后这一数据有了极大的改善，去年第四季度和今年第一季度，分别仅有55.42%和63.66%。\n这说明拼多多的营销效率出现了提升，即营销费用相应减少，并没有影响到营收的增长。David Liu还表示，多多买菜业务更好地满足了用户需求，拓展了公司的履约能力，这部分用户的购买频次也更高，在营销支出方面，长期而言公司也是受益的。\n此外，营销费用占比的下滑，还大幅改善了拼多多的盈利情况。去年一季度，营销费用占比达到了111.55%，因此同期亏损达到了31.7亿元，而今年仅为18.9亿元，同比大幅收窄。\n提高用户粘性成拼多多下一步重点\n在上个季度的电话会议上，David Liu曾预警：鉴于目前拼多多用户的规模，我认为不可避免的接下来的时间用户的增速将会放缓。结合本季度的数据来看，不幸言中。\n\n截止到3月31日的拼多多年度活跃买家达到了8.238亿人，高于阿里巴巴不久前公布的8.11亿，但环比增长3540万，创下了2019年第二季度以来的最低纪录。所以，拼多多下一步要做什么，用David Liu的话来说，就是要提高用户的粘性。\n\n过去拼多多会在财报中公布年度活跃买家的消费数据，但是这一季度并没有披露，因此我们无法直观地看到用户粘性是否有所提高。\n但是从拼多多高管的多次讲话可以看出来，拼多多达成这一目标的方式有两个：一个是吸引更多品牌商家的入驻，扩充品类，另一个则是多多买菜。其中，后者尤为重要。\nDavid Liu也透露了多多买菜的最新进展：目前多多买菜在300多个主要城市中都开展了业务，并且在随着当地基础设施的不断的改善，也带来了我们想要的消费者行为。\n但社区团购正在逐渐被纳入监管范围之内。今年3月，市场监管总局对几家头部的社区团购公司做出了处罚，认为这些公司存在“烧钱抢市场、垄断后提价”等行为。这一现状或许给拼多多未来的计划带来了一些不确定的因素。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"48394":0.9,"48568":0.9,"48579":0.9,"48677":0.9,"48687":0.9,"48698":0.9,"48699":0.9,"48711":0.9,"PDD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136529430,"gmtCreate":1622030056720,"gmtModify":1704178123079,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136529430","repostId":"1113676067","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113676067","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622028675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113676067?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 19:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113676067","media":"中国财富管理50...","summary":"摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席中国财富管理50人论坛举办的“经济增长形势分析闭门座谈会”，并作发言时表示，美国“高压经济学”政策刺激下通胀卷土重来，带来长期结构性通胀，给“俏也不争春”的中国经济","content":"<p>Xing Ziqiang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley China, attended the \"Closed-door Symposium on Economic Growth Situation Analysis\" held by the China Wealth Management 50 Forum, and said in his speech that inflation has returned under the stimulus of the \"high-pressure economics\" policy of the United States. Long-term structural inflation has brought external challenges to China's economic recovery, which is \"beautiful but not competing for spring\". At present, the recovery of China's manufacturing investment has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", but concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to the fact that consumption has not yet fully recovered, and there is no long-term risk of China's inflation.</p><p>Xing Ziqiang said that China's goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies, and the next step is to remain stable and grasp the policy rhythm. The essence of this year's regulatory \"storm\" lies in focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent, and the ultimate goal is to build a new regulatory framework and reduce systemic risks. In particular, the focus of this supervision is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance. In the future, regulatory policies will be more predictable and transparent, and pay more attention to policy communication, thereby reducing disturbances that bring uncertainty to the market.</p><p><b>Core Points</b></p><p>➢ First, the inflation trilogy plays out: rising commodity prices are the first part of the global spillover effects of U.S. high-pressure economics. The second chapter is the spiral of labor costs and inflation expectations caused by the overheating of the American economy. And<b>The final chapter of the resurgence of inflation, or the 3T reversal (anti-globalization, anti-platform giant, and fair income distribution), has pushed the Phillips curve to steep again, and long-term inflation has rebounded.</b></p><p>➢ Second, in response to global inflation, China can guide the reduction of commodity speculation in the short term and ensure stable supply expectations. In the medium and long term, China's current policy round has taken the lead in returning to normal, steadily withdrawing from stimulus, preventing asset bubbles,<b>The regulatory \"storm\" dares to \"gnaw the bones\", which is in sharp contrast to the loose stimulus of developed countries. \"China's economic governance\" provides the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era.</b></p><p>➢ Third, although the direction is correct, decision-makers can still reduce the uncertainty and disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication. More transparent policy change procedures can highlight<b>China's determination to focus on the long-term, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, and stabilize market confidence will help alleviate overseas misunderstandings of China's policy direction caused by cultural barriers under the trend of anti-globalization, thus laying a solid foundation for further internationalization of RMB.</b></p><p>The following is a transcript of the speech:</p><p><b>American \"High Pressure Economics\" and Cyclical Inflation</b></p><p>When China's developed economies continued to increase stimulus efforts, it took the lead in restoring normalized policies, focusing on stabilizing leverage, managing debt risks, and improving the long-term sustainability of the economy. This is a more rational choice, which can be described as \"not competing for spring\". But external challenges may have just begun.</p><p>Since the second half of last year, the author believes that the world will face a resurgence of inflation, especially the United States. At present, the U.S. economy is facing relatively major changes, not only the short-term overheating caused by Biden's stimulus, but also the policy \"left turn\" brought about by long-term inflation and anti-globalization thoughts. More attention is paid to fair distribution, which will lead to the resurgence of long-term inflation. China also has a great impact.</p><p>The goal of the \"high-pressure economics\" being built in the United States is not only to pursue GDP growth to return to the pre-epidemic trajectory, but to achieve income equity and maximize employment for low-and middle-income groups and the working class. In this process, the United States can condone or even actively seek the overshoot of economic growth, and not loosen the \"throttle\" until it achieves its goal, hoping to drive tension in the labor market and rise wages. In this process, the excess of stimulus policies is obvious. However, there is no free lunch in the world, and one of the side effects of \"high-pressure economics\" is inflation. If the U.S. economy overheats, the core inflation rate is likely to reach 2.5% by the end of this year.</p><p><b>Three drivers of U.S. inflation's comeback</b></p><p><b>First, the policy is extremely strong.</b>After launching the US $1.9 trillion rescue plan, the United States is still increasing its stimulus policies, and it is likely to pass an infrastructure stimulus plan close to US $2 trillion in the second half of the year. This plan has \"four pillars\":<b>One is</b>Old infrastructure, such as building roads and bridges, but this part only accounts for 1/3 of the plan;<b>The second is</b>New infrastructure, such as telecommunications and broadband industries;<b>Third,</b>Green Energy;<b>The fourth is</b>It's education and training.</p><p>At present, there is a high probability that the \"four pillars\" plan will be officially adopted in October and realized through budget coordination. Regarding the effect of this investment plan, judging from the investment situation of public projects in the United States in the past few decades, basically half of the funds will be allocated in the first or second years. The infrastructure plan will become another \"shot in the arm\" for the U.S. economic recovery, and the stimulus will be further strengthened.</p><p><b>Second, vaccines are being rolled out extremely fast.</b>At present, the vaccine promotion in the United States is rapid, and the potential consumer demand is expected to be released again in the summer. This summer, American hotel and air ticket reservations are full, no less than China's May Day holiday.</p><p><b>Third, consumers have a lot of \"surplus food\".</b>This round of adjustment in the wealth of American consumers has not hurt their muscles and bones. On the contrary, after several rounds of financial assistance during the epidemic, U.S. residents currently have up to $2 trillion in excess savings in their accounts. Under such circumstances, as long as vaccines are in place and living habits are restored, the spending power of US $2 trillion is expected to be released explosively.</p><p>Driven by three major factors, the U.S. economy will definitely overheat this year, and cyclical inflationary pressures will rise significantly. Moreover, the United States did not rush to withdraw from this round of stimulus policies. It did not withdraw from fiscal policy when the unemployment rate remained at a high of 10% and monetary policy when the unemployment rate remained at 7%, as it did in 2009. In the first half of this year, the U.S. economic growth rate may be as high as 9.6%, and it will remain at 7% in the second half of this year, far exceeding the potential growth rate.</p><p>In terms of currency, the month-on-month growth rate of the US economy next year may be close to 5%, which is also a sign of overheating. From the perspective of the labor market, the current U.S. employment cost index has increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and it is difficult for productivity to rise simultaneously. Therefore, inflation is likely to come back. It is expected that U.S. core PCE inflation may reach 2.6% in the next few months.</p><p>At present, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not tighten monetary policy, so there is no need to worry about rising inflation. This is also the result of the Fed's repeated \"reassurance\" for everyone. However, if inflation exceeds expectations, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to start a \"shrinking balance sheet\" at the end of the year, and rate hike will also be early.</p><p><b>Long-term inflation makes a structural comeback</b></p><p>Many researchers mainly focus on whether this round of stimulus in the United States will significantly push up commodity prices, have a cost impact on China's PPI prices, and then affect China's economic and monetary policies. This direction is certainly worthy of attention, but it is only the first part of this big inflation cycle, and may not even be the main source of global and U.S. inflation in the next stage.</p><p>Whether inflation in the United States is rising or not, the next step is whether its economic trend of thought turns left and excessive stimulus can ultimately drive tension in the labor market. At present, the risk that long-term and structural inflation in the United States will return is not small: in the past 20 years, the United States has also taken some stimulus measures, but inflation has not risen in the end. But the three dominant forces that have kept inflation in check over the past 20 years are being reversed. These three forces are trade globalization, technology platformization, and income distribution enterprise. I summarize it as the \"3T\".</p><p><b>First, trade globalization.</b>At present, all countries are reflecting on the layout of trade chains. The cost of industrial chains in 5G, semiconductors, medical equipment and other fields in developed countries may rise, and the globalization trend is being reversed.</p><p><b>Second, technology platformization.</b>In the past 20 years, the world has connived at and encouraged the development of platform companies and Internet companies, believing that their R&D and innovation have improved productivity and suppressed price levels. However, the \"winner-takes-all\" situation has led to a widening gap between the rich and the poor, which has also caused countries to worry about potential risks. They have rereflected their regulatory attitude towards technology platform companies and begun to intervene in issues such as anti-monopoly, digital tax, and digital use supervision..</p><p><b>Third, income distribution should be enterprised.</b>This round of U.S. stimulus package clearly proposes to adjust income distribution. In the 1980s, the Reagan administration implemented policies such as small government, deregulation, low tax rate, and embracing globalization, which led to the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and capitalists and enterprises shared more and more \"cakes\". Bidenomics represents a correction of the role of small governments, hoping to adjust income distribution through measures such as raising taxes on enterprises, raising capital gains taxes, strengthening transfer payments to low-and middle-income groups, and even raising the federal minimum wage.</p><p>These three factors make this round of cyclical inflation in the United States not only a \"flash in the pan\", but a long-term and sustainable structural inflation.</p><p><b>China's inflationary pressure is far less than that of the United States</b></p><p>At present, China's economic recovery is uneven. Growth is mainly driven by manufacturing and exports, and the recovery of domestic consumption is still relatively slow.</p><p><b>In terms of external demand, the growth rate of the industrial sector has exceeded the potential growth rate by 5 percentage points, which not only fills the \"pit\" caused by the epidemic, but also shows a trend of exceeding the potential growth, but this cannot be sustained for a long time.</b>During the epidemic, the production chain of other countries was broken and the supply was insufficient, so China's export share continued to rise. But in the next three or four quarters, exports are expected to return slowly. Because the production capacity of various countries is gradually recovering and the consumption pattern is gradually returning to normal, normal service consumption will be carried out instead of shopping electronic products from China online at home.</p><p>During this round of epidemic, the long-term significance of China's export performance is that the resilience of China's manufacturing industry has passed the test. Last year, the global economy stagnated due to the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, and it was \"already a cliff of hundreds of feet of ice.\" However, China's \"unique flowers and branches\" took the lead in recovering, which also ensured a safe harbor for the global production and supply chain.</p><p>At present, due to the re-spread of the Novel Coronavirus variant and the renewed emergency of the epidemic in major emerging markets, the recovery of global supply is facing challenges again, so export orders continue to be transferred to the most stable and reliable Chinese supply chain. The utilization rate of manufacturing capacity has climbed to the highest level in history, the demand for long-term corporate loans has recovered steadily, and the import demand of industrial robots and machine tools is strong. These indicators all point to the recovery of China's manufacturing investment.</p><p>In view of the comparison of the performance of China and foreign countries under the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia, which has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", the growth rate of manufacturing investment this year is expected to pick up, surpassing the investment trajectory before the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87abc1ed3051bb90f66fde6c714b3027\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 1: Manufacturing investment confidence recovers</b></p><p><b>In terms of domestic demand, China's current consumption growth rate is at least 2 to 3 percentage points lower than the potential growth rate before the epidemic.</b>The difference in consumption between China and the United States is very obvious. Why is China's consumption recovering slow?<b>One is</b>China has not adopted the direct transfer payment measures of western economies, such as issuing checks.<b>The second is</b>The recovery of the job market fell short of expectations. By tracking employment data, there are still many hidden unemployment in consumer fields such as offline retail, entertainment, and personal care, and the growth rate of online platform recruitment has only recovered by less than half.</p><p>As a result, concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to consumption not fully recovering yet. It is expected that after the third and fourth quarters, if the epidemic situation is steadily controlled, the full recovery of consumption can be realized.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b67ad8d78d608518fde1060e416bbdc\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 2: Consumption recovery is relatively slow</b></p><p><b>In terms of inflation, there is also a large gap between China and the United States.</b>The \"high-pressure economics\" of the United States is that it will not give up until it achieves its goal. Whether it is cyclical inflation or long-term inflation, it may come back. The rise in commodity and raw material prices in China mainly comes from the short-term pressure on corporate profits. Its transmission to overall inflation is relatively limited, and its impact on monetary policy is relatively small.</p><p>The recent excessive rise in commodity prices has caused market concerns. It is undeniable that the rise in raw material prices will squeeze the profits of downstream companies in the short term. In particular, some companies cannot raise prices in time because they need to complete orders in hand, so they must bear all cost pressures, or even make money at a loss. As a policy response, China has strengthened guidance to reduce commodity futures speculation, and can also increase domestic supply by adjusting the pace of production cuts in steel, aluminum, coal and other industries.</p><p>But overall, this round of commodity price inflation is largely due to global factors: excessive policy stimulus in developed countries has driven demand, while supply-side bottlenecks are still constrained, and some major foreign commodity exporting countries have failed to fully restore its production capacity due to the epidemic and other reasons.</p><p>However, the inflationary pressure facing China, especially the pressure on core consumer prices, is controllable. After all, the supply of goods and services in China has recovered the fastest, faster than domestic demand, while the demand side is still on a slow and step-by-step recovery trajectory. Compared with the supply-demand imbalance in overseas developed countries where the supply side is far from recovering, but demand has taken the lead, China's own inflationary pressure is limited. It is expected that the CPI will rebound moderately but not overheat. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI will be in May and June. It peaked above 8% in the month, and then entered a slow downward channel in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d48614e5c7ef7cc974897de32afdac6\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f177de6d9166486bb36096ffef9beb98\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 3: China's inflation has no long-term danger</b></p><p><b>Policy withdrawal has been achieved and the next step remains stable</b></p><p>At present, the financial regulatory policies that have been introduced can basically achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year, and the next step is to grasp the rhythm.</p><p>From last year's Central Economic Work Conference to this year's Politburo meeting, most policy directions are relatively clear. Specifically, in addition to the gradual return of fiscal policy to normal and the reduction of deficits, financial supervision and macro-prudential policies mainly include three aspects:<b>One is</b>Systemically important financial institutions should gradually expand their capacity, increase the requirements for the capital adequacy ratio of some banks,<b>The second is</b>Macro-prudential requirements for the \"three red lines\" of real estate and loan concentration,<b>Third,</b>It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of bond issuance by local financing platforms.</p><p>These policies are basically enough to achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year. Estimates show that by the third quarter of this year, the growth rate of total social financing will drop from 13.5% at the end of last year to 11.5% or even 11%. It is estimated that the nominal GDP growth rate this year is expected to be above 11%, and the social financing and nominal GDP growth rate will be basically consistent. Therefore, the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies.</p><p><b>Supervision \"storm\": penetrating the phenomenon to see the essence, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent</b></p><p>Many regulatory \"storms\" that started this year are essentially focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating talents. Including strong supervision of financial technology, anti-monopoly of platform companies, and carbon peaking actions, it seems that the market has been caught off guard, but they are in line with the direction of the new economic governance mechanism established by China in the past few years: plugging loopholes, making up for shortcomings, and stabilizing leverage to reduce systemic risks, avoiding financial crises, and improving social problems.</p><p>In fact, the recent new regulatory measures are the fourth round of regulatory \"storm\" in the past six years. The previous three rounds were the supply-side reform of industries with overcapacity from 2016 to 2018, the battle to resolve financial risks, and environmental protection governance. The macro background of their emergence is that the structural imbalance of China's economy has accumulated after 2008, and the demographic dividend has gradually dissipated. The growth rate of total factor productivity, which measures the sustainability of long-term growth, has been declining year by year, and the regulatory framework of some industries has failed to keep pace with the times after years of high growth.</p><p>Therefore, the ultimate goal of the above-mentioned rounds of regulatory \"storms\" since 2015 is to build a new regulatory framework, plug loopholes, make up shortcomings, and stabilize leverage to reduce systemic risks. Although there were some concerns about market confidence in the short term, the prices of market assets such as stocks were adjusted at that time; However, the \"short-term pain\" of strong supervision has finally brought significant long-term benefits to China's economy: the past several rounds of regulatory storms have finally improved the stability of China's financial system, stabilized the whole macro leverage ratio, reduced the debt risk, and did not continuously squeeze the vitality of the private sector, and the total factor productivity remained stable.</p><p>For example, after the capital outflow slowed down, the internationalization of RMB has started again under the three-pillar system of expanding financial opening, deepening domestic reform, and expanding the scope of use of RMB; China's financial system has become more resilient due to the clean-up of shadow banking, keeping the bottom line of no systemic financial risks; In 2018, there were rounds of supervision for the Internet, medicine, games, education and other industries. In the end, it did not inhibit its subsequent benign development.</p><p>The recent supervision of technology platform companies also reflects the policy level's balance between \"short-term pain\" and long-term interests. Globally, policymakers and researchers are thinking that the rapidly rising monopoly position of large technology platforms may have squeezed the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises, exacerbated social problems such as the protection of the rich and the poor and workers, and may inhibit innovation and threaten financial stability in the long run. Therefore, the focus of China's supervision this time is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance.</p><p>Of course, before and after this process, the decision-making level can still reduce the uncertainty disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication, and further increase the predictability of policies. A more transparent policy environment can not only better demonstrate China's determination to take a long-term view, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, stabilize market confidence, but also help alleviate overseas policies on China caused by cultural barriers under the anti-globalization trend of thought. Misreading, thus making China expected to provide the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era and further consolidate the foundation for RMB internationalization.</p><p>In the next step, we should pay attention to the rhythm of the new policy. Because once regulatory policies are further tightened, social financing will fall more significantly, and it is easy to overshoot, which will have an impact on private sector confidence.</p>","source":"lsy1586655104126","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国财富管理50...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 19:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Xing Ziqiang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley China, attended the \"Closed-door Symposium on Economic Growth Situation Analysis\" held by the China Wealth Management 50 Forum, and said in his speech that inflation has returned under the stimulus of the \"high-pressure economics\" policy of the United States. Long-term structural inflation has brought external challenges to China's economic recovery, which is \"beautiful but not competing for spring\". At present, the recovery of China's manufacturing investment has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", but concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to the fact that consumption has not yet fully recovered, and there is no long-term risk of China's inflation.</p><p>Xing Ziqiang said that China's goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies, and the next step is to remain stable and grasp the policy rhythm. The essence of this year's regulatory \"storm\" lies in focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent, and the ultimate goal is to build a new regulatory framework and reduce systemic risks. In particular, the focus of this supervision is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance. In the future, regulatory policies will be more predictable and transparent, and pay more attention to policy communication, thereby reducing disturbances that bring uncertainty to the market.</p><p><b>Core Points</b></p><p>➢ First, the inflation trilogy plays out: rising commodity prices are the first part of the global spillover effects of U.S. high-pressure economics. The second chapter is the spiral of labor costs and inflation expectations caused by the overheating of the American economy. And<b>The final chapter of the resurgence of inflation, or the 3T reversal (anti-globalization, anti-platform giant, and fair income distribution), has pushed the Phillips curve to steep again, and long-term inflation has rebounded.</b></p><p>➢ Second, in response to global inflation, China can guide the reduction of commodity speculation in the short term and ensure stable supply expectations. In the medium and long term, China's current policy round has taken the lead in returning to normal, steadily withdrawing from stimulus, preventing asset bubbles,<b>The regulatory \"storm\" dares to \"gnaw the bones\", which is in sharp contrast to the loose stimulus of developed countries. \"China's economic governance\" provides the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era.</b></p><p>➢ Third, although the direction is correct, decision-makers can still reduce the uncertainty and disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication. More transparent policy change procedures can highlight<b>China's determination to focus on the long-term, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, and stabilize market confidence will help alleviate overseas misunderstandings of China's policy direction caused by cultural barriers under the trend of anti-globalization, thus laying a solid foundation for further internationalization of RMB.</b></p><p>The following is a transcript of the speech:</p><p><b>American \"High Pressure Economics\" and Cyclical Inflation</b></p><p>When China's developed economies continued to increase stimulus efforts, it took the lead in restoring normalized policies, focusing on stabilizing leverage, managing debt risks, and improving the long-term sustainability of the economy. This is a more rational choice, which can be described as \"not competing for spring\". But external challenges may have just begun.</p><p>Since the second half of last year, the author believes that the world will face a resurgence of inflation, especially the United States. At present, the U.S. economy is facing relatively major changes, not only the short-term overheating caused by Biden's stimulus, but also the policy \"left turn\" brought about by long-term inflation and anti-globalization thoughts. More attention is paid to fair distribution, which will lead to the resurgence of long-term inflation. China also has a great impact.</p><p>The goal of the \"high-pressure economics\" being built in the United States is not only to pursue GDP growth to return to the pre-epidemic trajectory, but to achieve income equity and maximize employment for low-and middle-income groups and the working class. In this process, the United States can condone or even actively seek the overshoot of economic growth, and not loosen the \"throttle\" until it achieves its goal, hoping to drive tension in the labor market and rise wages. In this process, the excess of stimulus policies is obvious. However, there is no free lunch in the world, and one of the side effects of \"high-pressure economics\" is inflation. If the U.S. economy overheats, the core inflation rate is likely to reach 2.5% by the end of this year.</p><p><b>Three drivers of U.S. inflation's comeback</b></p><p><b>First, the policy is extremely strong.</b>After launching the US $1.9 trillion rescue plan, the United States is still increasing its stimulus policies, and it is likely to pass an infrastructure stimulus plan close to US $2 trillion in the second half of the year. This plan has \"four pillars\":<b>One is</b>Old infrastructure, such as building roads and bridges, but this part only accounts for 1/3 of the plan;<b>The second is</b>New infrastructure, such as telecommunications and broadband industries;<b>Third,</b>Green Energy;<b>The fourth is</b>It's education and training.</p><p>At present, there is a high probability that the \"four pillars\" plan will be officially adopted in October and realized through budget coordination. Regarding the effect of this investment plan, judging from the investment situation of public projects in the United States in the past few decades, basically half of the funds will be allocated in the first or second years. The infrastructure plan will become another \"shot in the arm\" for the U.S. economic recovery, and the stimulus will be further strengthened.</p><p><b>Second, vaccines are being rolled out extremely fast.</b>At present, the vaccine promotion in the United States is rapid, and the potential consumer demand is expected to be released again in the summer. This summer, American hotel and air ticket reservations are full, no less than China's May Day holiday.</p><p><b>Third, consumers have a lot of \"surplus food\".</b>This round of adjustment in the wealth of American consumers has not hurt their muscles and bones. On the contrary, after several rounds of financial assistance during the epidemic, U.S. residents currently have up to $2 trillion in excess savings in their accounts. Under such circumstances, as long as vaccines are in place and living habits are restored, the spending power of US $2 trillion is expected to be released explosively.</p><p>Driven by three major factors, the U.S. economy will definitely overheat this year, and cyclical inflationary pressures will rise significantly. Moreover, the United States did not rush to withdraw from this round of stimulus policies. It did not withdraw from fiscal policy when the unemployment rate remained at a high of 10% and monetary policy when the unemployment rate remained at 7%, as it did in 2009. In the first half of this year, the U.S. economic growth rate may be as high as 9.6%, and it will remain at 7% in the second half of this year, far exceeding the potential growth rate.</p><p>In terms of currency, the month-on-month growth rate of the US economy next year may be close to 5%, which is also a sign of overheating. From the perspective of the labor market, the current U.S. employment cost index has increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and it is difficult for productivity to rise simultaneously. Therefore, inflation is likely to come back. It is expected that U.S. core PCE inflation may reach 2.6% in the next few months.</p><p>At present, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not tighten monetary policy, so there is no need to worry about rising inflation. This is also the result of the Fed's repeated \"reassurance\" for everyone. However, if inflation exceeds expectations, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to start a \"shrinking balance sheet\" at the end of the year, and rate hike will also be early.</p><p><b>Long-term inflation makes a structural comeback</b></p><p>Many researchers mainly focus on whether this round of stimulus in the United States will significantly push up commodity prices, have a cost impact on China's PPI prices, and then affect China's economic and monetary policies. This direction is certainly worthy of attention, but it is only the first part of this big inflation cycle, and may not even be the main source of global and U.S. inflation in the next stage.</p><p>Whether inflation in the United States is rising or not, the next step is whether its economic trend of thought turns left and excessive stimulus can ultimately drive tension in the labor market. At present, the risk that long-term and structural inflation in the United States will return is not small: in the past 20 years, the United States has also taken some stimulus measures, but inflation has not risen in the end. But the three dominant forces that have kept inflation in check over the past 20 years are being reversed. These three forces are trade globalization, technology platformization, and income distribution enterprise. I summarize it as the \"3T\".</p><p><b>First, trade globalization.</b>At present, all countries are reflecting on the layout of trade chains. The cost of industrial chains in 5G, semiconductors, medical equipment and other fields in developed countries may rise, and the globalization trend is being reversed.</p><p><b>Second, technology platformization.</b>In the past 20 years, the world has connived at and encouraged the development of platform companies and Internet companies, believing that their R&D and innovation have improved productivity and suppressed price levels. However, the \"winner-takes-all\" situation has led to a widening gap between the rich and the poor, which has also caused countries to worry about potential risks. They have rereflected their regulatory attitude towards technology platform companies and begun to intervene in issues such as anti-monopoly, digital tax, and digital use supervision..</p><p><b>Third, income distribution should be enterprised.</b>This round of U.S. stimulus package clearly proposes to adjust income distribution. In the 1980s, the Reagan administration implemented policies such as small government, deregulation, low tax rate, and embracing globalization, which led to the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and capitalists and enterprises shared more and more \"cakes\". Bidenomics represents a correction of the role of small governments, hoping to adjust income distribution through measures such as raising taxes on enterprises, raising capital gains taxes, strengthening transfer payments to low-and middle-income groups, and even raising the federal minimum wage.</p><p>These three factors make this round of cyclical inflation in the United States not only a \"flash in the pan\", but a long-term and sustainable structural inflation.</p><p><b>China's inflationary pressure is far less than that of the United States</b></p><p>At present, China's economic recovery is uneven. Growth is mainly driven by manufacturing and exports, and the recovery of domestic consumption is still relatively slow.</p><p><b>In terms of external demand, the growth rate of the industrial sector has exceeded the potential growth rate by 5 percentage points, which not only fills the \"pit\" caused by the epidemic, but also shows a trend of exceeding the potential growth, but this cannot be sustained for a long time.</b>During the epidemic, the production chain of other countries was broken and the supply was insufficient, so China's export share continued to rise. But in the next three or four quarters, exports are expected to return slowly. Because the production capacity of various countries is gradually recovering and the consumption pattern is gradually returning to normal, normal service consumption will be carried out instead of shopping electronic products from China online at home.</p><p>During this round of epidemic, the long-term significance of China's export performance is that the resilience of China's manufacturing industry has passed the test. Last year, the global economy stagnated due to the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, and it was \"already a cliff of hundreds of feet of ice.\" However, China's \"unique flowers and branches\" took the lead in recovering, which also ensured a safe harbor for the global production and supply chain.</p><p>At present, due to the re-spread of the Novel Coronavirus variant and the renewed emergency of the epidemic in major emerging markets, the recovery of global supply is facing challenges again, so export orders continue to be transferred to the most stable and reliable Chinese supply chain. The utilization rate of manufacturing capacity has climbed to the highest level in history, the demand for long-term corporate loans has recovered steadily, and the import demand of industrial robots and machine tools is strong. These indicators all point to the recovery of China's manufacturing investment.</p><p>In view of the comparison of the performance of China and foreign countries under the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia, which has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", the growth rate of manufacturing investment this year is expected to pick up, surpassing the investment trajectory before the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87abc1ed3051bb90f66fde6c714b3027\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 1: Manufacturing investment confidence recovers</b></p><p><b>In terms of domestic demand, China's current consumption growth rate is at least 2 to 3 percentage points lower than the potential growth rate before the epidemic.</b>The difference in consumption between China and the United States is very obvious. Why is China's consumption recovering slow?<b>One is</b>China has not adopted the direct transfer payment measures of western economies, such as issuing checks.<b>The second is</b>The recovery of the job market fell short of expectations. By tracking employment data, there are still many hidden unemployment in consumer fields such as offline retail, entertainment, and personal care, and the growth rate of online platform recruitment has only recovered by less than half.</p><p>As a result, concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to consumption not fully recovering yet. It is expected that after the third and fourth quarters, if the epidemic situation is steadily controlled, the full recovery of consumption can be realized.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b67ad8d78d608518fde1060e416bbdc\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 2: Consumption recovery is relatively slow</b></p><p><b>In terms of inflation, there is also a large gap between China and the United States.</b>The \"high-pressure economics\" of the United States is that it will not give up until it achieves its goal. Whether it is cyclical inflation or long-term inflation, it may come back. The rise in commodity and raw material prices in China mainly comes from the short-term pressure on corporate profits. Its transmission to overall inflation is relatively limited, and its impact on monetary policy is relatively small.</p><p>The recent excessive rise in commodity prices has caused market concerns. It is undeniable that the rise in raw material prices will squeeze the profits of downstream companies in the short term. In particular, some companies cannot raise prices in time because they need to complete orders in hand, so they must bear all cost pressures, or even make money at a loss. As a policy response, China has strengthened guidance to reduce commodity futures speculation, and can also increase domestic supply by adjusting the pace of production cuts in steel, aluminum, coal and other industries.</p><p>But overall, this round of commodity price inflation is largely due to global factors: excessive policy stimulus in developed countries has driven demand, while supply-side bottlenecks are still constrained, and some major foreign commodity exporting countries have failed to fully restore its production capacity due to the epidemic and other reasons.</p><p>However, the inflationary pressure facing China, especially the pressure on core consumer prices, is controllable. After all, the supply of goods and services in China has recovered the fastest, faster than domestic demand, while the demand side is still on a slow and step-by-step recovery trajectory. Compared with the supply-demand imbalance in overseas developed countries where the supply side is far from recovering, but demand has taken the lead, China's own inflationary pressure is limited. It is expected that the CPI will rebound moderately but not overheat. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI will be in May and June. It peaked above 8% in the month, and then entered a slow downward channel in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d48614e5c7ef7cc974897de32afdac6\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f177de6d9166486bb36096ffef9beb98\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 3: China's inflation has no long-term danger</b></p><p><b>Policy withdrawal has been achieved and the next step remains stable</b></p><p>At present, the financial regulatory policies that have been introduced can basically achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year, and the next step is to grasp the rhythm.</p><p>From last year's Central Economic Work Conference to this year's Politburo meeting, most policy directions are relatively clear. Specifically, in addition to the gradual return of fiscal policy to normal and the reduction of deficits, financial supervision and macro-prudential policies mainly include three aspects:<b>One is</b>Systemically important financial institutions should gradually expand their capacity, increase the requirements for the capital adequacy ratio of some banks,<b>The second is</b>Macro-prudential requirements for the \"three red lines\" of real estate and loan concentration,<b>Third,</b>It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of bond issuance by local financing platforms.</p><p>These policies are basically enough to achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year. Estimates show that by the third quarter of this year, the growth rate of total social financing will drop from 13.5% at the end of last year to 11.5% or even 11%. It is estimated that the nominal GDP growth rate this year is expected to be above 11%, and the social financing and nominal GDP growth rate will be basically consistent. Therefore, the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies.</p><p><b>Supervision \"storm\": penetrating the phenomenon to see the essence, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent</b></p><p>Many regulatory \"storms\" that started this year are essentially focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating talents. Including strong supervision of financial technology, anti-monopoly of platform companies, and carbon peaking actions, it seems that the market has been caught off guard, but they are in line with the direction of the new economic governance mechanism established by China in the past few years: plugging loopholes, making up for shortcomings, and stabilizing leverage to reduce systemic risks, avoiding financial crises, and improving social problems.</p><p>In fact, the recent new regulatory measures are the fourth round of regulatory \"storm\" in the past six years. The previous three rounds were the supply-side reform of industries with overcapacity from 2016 to 2018, the battle to resolve financial risks, and environmental protection governance. The macro background of their emergence is that the structural imbalance of China's economy has accumulated after 2008, and the demographic dividend has gradually dissipated. The growth rate of total factor productivity, which measures the sustainability of long-term growth, has been declining year by year, and the regulatory framework of some industries has failed to keep pace with the times after years of high growth.</p><p>Therefore, the ultimate goal of the above-mentioned rounds of regulatory \"storms\" since 2015 is to build a new regulatory framework, plug loopholes, make up shortcomings, and stabilize leverage to reduce systemic risks. Although there were some concerns about market confidence in the short term, the prices of market assets such as stocks were adjusted at that time; However, the \"short-term pain\" of strong supervision has finally brought significant long-term benefits to China's economy: the past several rounds of regulatory storms have finally improved the stability of China's financial system, stabilized the whole macro leverage ratio, reduced the debt risk, and did not continuously squeeze the vitality of the private sector, and the total factor productivity remained stable.</p><p>For example, after the capital outflow slowed down, the internationalization of RMB has started again under the three-pillar system of expanding financial opening, deepening domestic reform, and expanding the scope of use of RMB; China's financial system has become more resilient due to the clean-up of shadow banking, keeping the bottom line of no systemic financial risks; In 2018, there were rounds of supervision for the Internet, medicine, games, education and other industries. In the end, it did not inhibit its subsequent benign development.</p><p>The recent supervision of technology platform companies also reflects the policy level's balance between \"short-term pain\" and long-term interests. Globally, policymakers and researchers are thinking that the rapidly rising monopoly position of large technology platforms may have squeezed the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises, exacerbated social problems such as the protection of the rich and the poor and workers, and may inhibit innovation and threaten financial stability in the long run. Therefore, the focus of China's supervision this time is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance.</p><p>Of course, before and after this process, the decision-making level can still reduce the uncertainty disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication, and further increase the predictability of policies. A more transparent policy environment can not only better demonstrate China's determination to take a long-term view, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, stabilize market confidence, but also help alleviate overseas policies on China caused by cultural barriers under the anti-globalization trend of thought. Misreading, thus making China expected to provide the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era and further consolidate the foundation for RMB internationalization.</p><p>In the next step, we should pay attention to the rhythm of the new policy. Because once regulatory policies are further tightened, social financing will fall more significantly, and it is easy to overshoot, which will have an impact on private sector confidence.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2_mdbG9LFrKJnE19_m2QKg\">中国财富管理50...</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2_mdbG9LFrKJnE19_m2QKg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113676067","content_text":"摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席中国财富管理50人论坛举办的“经济增长形势分析闭门座谈会”，并作发言时表示，美国“高压经济学”政策刺激下通胀卷土重来，带来长期结构性通胀，给“俏也不争春”的中国经济复苏带来外部挑战。当前，中国制造业投资复苏夯实“中国制造”吸引力，但对就业和收入不确定的担忧导致消费尚未完全恢复，中国的通胀并无长期之虞。\n邢自强表示，中国稳定宏观杠杆率的目标靠当前政策就可实现，下一步须保持稳健，把握政策节奏。今年监管“风暴”本质在于着眼长远，固本培元，最终目的是搭建新监管框架，降低系统性风险。尤其是此次监管焦点在科技巨头，实际上引领了全球经济治理新思潮。未来，监管政策将更预见性、更为透明，更注重政策沟通，从而减少给市场带来不确定性的扰动。\n核心要点\n➢第一，通胀三部曲奏响：大宗商品价格上涨是美国高压经济学对全球外溢效应的首部曲。第二章乃是美国经济过热带来劳动力成本与通胀预期的螺旋上升。而通胀卷土重来的最终章，或是3T逆转（逆全球化、逆平台巨头化、收入分配公平化）推动菲利普斯曲线重新陡峭，长期通胀回升。\n➢第二，应对全球通胀，中国短期内可引导减少大宗商品炒作，确保供给稳定预期。中长期，中国本轮政策率先回归常态，稳步退出刺激、防范资产泡沫、监管“风暴”敢于“啃骨头”，与发达国家竭泽焚薮的宽松刺激对比鲜明，“中国经济治理”为全球后疫情时代的经济治理机制提供了基石。\n➢第三，尽管方向正确，决策层仍可通过加强政策沟通去减少给市场带来的不确定性的扰动。更透明的政策变动程序，能彰显中国着眼长远、固本培元的决心，稳定市场信心，更有助于在逆全球化的趋势下，缓解因为文化隔阂引起的海外对中国政策走向的误读，从而夯实进一步人民币国际化的基础。\n以下为发言实录：\n美国“高压经济学”与周期性通胀\n中国在发达经济体继续加码刺激力度时，率先恢复了常态化政策，聚焦稳住杠杆，管理债务风险，改善经济的长期可持续性，这是一个比较理性的选择，可谓是“俏也不争春”。但外部挑战可能才刚刚开始。\n笔者从去年下半年开始，认为全球将面临通胀的卷土重来，特别是美国。目前美国经济面临比较大的变局，不只是拜登刺激引发的短期过热，更有长期通胀叠加逆全球化思潮带来的政策“左拐”，更加关注公平分配，这会导致长期通胀卷土重来，这对中国也有极大影响。\n美国正在打造的“高压经济学”，其目标不仅是追求GDP增速恢复到疫情前的轨迹，而是要实现收入的公平化，实现中低收入群体、工人阶级的最大化就业。在这一过程中，美国可以纵容甚至主动寻求经济增长的超调，不达目的不松“油门”，希望带动劳动力市场出现紧张和工资上涨。在这一过程中，刺激政策的超量显而易见。然而天下没有免费的午餐，“高压经济学”的副作用之一就是通货膨胀。如果美国经济过热，核心通胀率很有可能在今年底上探到2.5%。\n美国通胀卷土重来的三个动因\n第一，政策力度极大。在推出1.9万亿美元纾困计划后，美国还在加码刺激政策，很可能下半年再通过接近2万亿美元的基建刺激计划。这份计划共有“四大支柱”：一是老基建，如修路架桥等，但这部分仅占方案的1/3；二是新基建，比如电讯、宽带产业；三是绿色能源；四是是教育和培训。\n目前来看，“四大支柱”方案大概率会在10月份正式通过，用预算协调的方式加以实现。关于这一投资计划的效果，从过去几十年美国公共项目的投资情况来看，基本上一半的资金在第一、二年就会被拨款使用。基建计划将成为美国经济复苏的又一剂“强心针”，刺激力度会进一步加大。\n第二，疫苗推广极快。目前美国疫苗推广很快，潜在消费需求有望在夏天重新释放。今夏美国酒店、机票预定已爆满，不亚于中国的“五一”长假。\n第三，消费者“余粮”极多。美国消费者的财富本轮调整没有伤筋动骨，相反，经历了疫情期间数轮财政扶助，美国居民账户上目前有高达2万亿美元的多余储蓄。在这种情况下，只要疫苗到位、生活习惯恢复，2万亿美元的消费能力有望爆发性释放。\n在三大因素的推动下，今年美国经济肯定会出现过热，周期性通胀压力会明显抬升。且美国没有急于退出本轮刺激政策，没有像2009年一样，在失业率维持在10%高点时退出财政政策，在失业率7%时退出货币政策。今年上半年美国经济增速可能会高达9.6%，下半年还会维持在7%的水平，远超过潜在增速。\n货币方面，明年美国经济环比增速可能将接近5%，也是过热的表现。从劳动力市场看，目前美国雇佣成本指数已同比上升2.7%，而生产率难以同步上涨，因此通货膨胀大概率会卷土重来，预计美国核心PCE通胀可能在未来几个月达到2.6%。\n目前，市场普遍认为美联储不会收紧货币政策，所以无须担心通胀上扬，这也是美联储反复给大家吃“定心丸”的结果。但如果通胀超预期出现，不排除美联储最终被迫年底就开始“缩表”，加息也提早。\n长期通胀结构性卷土重来\n不少研究人士主要聚焦于美国本轮刺激是否会大幅推高大宗商品价格、对中国的PPI物价产生成本冲击、进而影响中国的经济和货币政策。这个方向当然值得关注，但它只是本轮通胀大周期的首部曲而已，甚至可能不是下阶段全球和美国通胀的主要来源。\n美国通胀是否上涨，下一步主要看点是其经济思潮左拐、超量刺激，最终能否带动劳动力市场的紧张。目前来看，美国长期、结构性通胀将卷土重来的风险不小：过去20年，美国也采取了一些刺激措施，但最终通胀都没有上涨。但过去20年抑制通胀的三股主导力量正在被逆转。这三股力量分别是贸易全球化、科技平台化、收入分配企业化。我将其总结为“3T”。\n第一，贸易全球化。目前各国都在反思贸易链布局，发达国家5G、半导体、医疗设备等领域的产业链成本可能会上升，全球化趋势正在被逆转。\n第二，科技平台化。过去20年，全球都在纵容和鼓励平台企业、互联网企业发展，认为他们的研发和创新提高了生产率、抑制了物价水平。但“赢家通吃”局面导致贫富差距不断加大，也引发了各国对潜在风险的担忧，重新反思对科技平台公司的监管态度，开始从反垄断、数字税、数字使用监管等问题着手干预。\n第三，收入分配企业化。本轮美国的刺激方案中明确提出要调节收入分配。80年代里根政府实施的小政府、去监管、低税率、拥抱全球化等政策，导致贫富差距不断加大，资本家和企业分得的“蛋糕”越来越多。拜登经济学代表了对小政府角色的纠偏，希望通过给企业加税、提高资本利得税、加强对中低收入群体的转移支付、甚至提高联邦最低工资等措施调节收入分配。\n这三个因素使得美国本轮不仅是“昙花一现”的周期性通胀，而是长期、可持续的结构性通胀。\n中国通胀压力远小于美国\n目前，中国的经济复苏并不均衡，增长主要依靠制造业和出口驱动，国内消费复苏依然较为缓慢。\n外需方面，工业部门增速已超过潜在增速5个百分点，不仅填平了疫情造成的“坑”，而且呈现超潜在增长态势，但这并不能长期持续。疫情期间，其他国家生产链断裂，供给不足，所以中国出口份额不断上升。但未来三、四季度，预计出口会缓慢回归。因为各国生产能力逐渐恢复，消费模式也逐步回归正常，会进行正常的服务消费，而不是在家里网购来自中国的电子产品了。\n这一轮疫情期间，中国出口表现的长期意义在于，中国制造业的韧性通过了考验。去年全球经济由于新冠肺炎疫情冲击而停滞，“已是悬崖百丈冰”，而中国“独有花枝俏”率先复苏，也确保了全球生产供应链的安全港。\n而当前，各大新兴市场由于新冠病毒变种的再次扩散、疫情再次告急，全球供应的复苏重新面临挑战，因而出口订单继续转移至最为稳定可靠的中国供应链。制造业产能利用率已攀升至历史最高位、企业长期贷款的需求稳健复苏、工业机器人、机床设备的进口需求旺盛，这些指标均指向中国制造业投资的复苏。\n鉴于中外在新冠肺炎疫情下的表现对比，夯实了“中国制造”的吸引力，今年的制造业投资增速有望回升，超越疫情前的投资轨迹。\n\n图1：制造业投资信心复苏\n内需方面，目前中国消费增速比疫情前的潜在增速水平至少低2~3个百分点。中美在消费方面的差异非常明显。为什么中国消费恢复缓慢？一是中国并没有采取西方经济体那种直接的转移支付措施，如发支票。二是就业市场的恢复情况未达预期。通过对就业数据进行追踪，线下零售、娱乐、个人护理等消费领域还有很多隐性失业，在线平台招聘增速也仅仅恢复了不到一半。\n因此，对就业和收入不确定的担忧导致消费尚没有完全恢复。预计三、四季度以后，若疫情得到稳步控制，消费的全面恢复才能实现。\n\n图2：消费恢复相对缓慢\n通胀方面，中美之间也存在较大的差距。美国“高压经济学”是不达目的不罢休，无论是周期性通胀、还是长期通胀，可能卷土重来。而中国大宗商品和原材料价格的上涨则主要来自于企业利润的短期承压，它对整体通胀的传导是比较有限的，对货币政策的影响也相对较小。\n近期大宗商品价格过快上涨引发了市场担忧，不可否认，原材料价格上涨将会在短期挤压下游企业利润，特别是部分企业因需要完成在手订单无法及时提价，从而必须承受所有的成本压力，甚至赔本赚吆喝。作为政策应对，中国通过加强引导来减少大宗商品期货炒作，还可通过调整钢、铝、煤炭等行业的减产节奏来提升国内供给。\n但总体而言，这一轮大宗商品价格通胀很大程度上源于全球因素：发达国家政策超量刺激，带动了需求，而供给侧瓶颈仍然掣肘，国外一些主要大宗商品出口国因疫情等原因未能完全恢复其产能。\n但中国面临的通胀压力，特别是核心消费物价的压力是可控的，毕竟中国的商品和服务的供给复苏最为迅速，快于国内需求，需求侧则尚处于缓慢按部就班回升轨迹。这与海外发达国家供给侧远远没有恢复、但需求已率先领跑的供需失衡相比，中国自身的通胀压力有限，预计CPI会温和回升但不会过热，PPI同比增速将于5、6月份触顶到8%之上，之后在下半年步入缓慢下行通道。\n\n图3：中国的通胀并无长期之虞\n政策退出已经实现 下一步保持稳健\n当前已出台的金融监管政策已经基本可以达成今年稳定宏观杠杆率的目标，下一步须把握节奏。\n从去年中央经济工作会到今年的政治局会议之间，多数政策方向比较明确，具体来看，除了财政政策逐步回归常态，减少赤字以外，金融监管和宏观审慎政策主要有三方面：一是系统重要性金融机构要逐渐扩容，提高对部分银行资本充足率的要求、二是对房地产“三道红线”、贷款集中度的宏观审慎要求，三是要加强对地方融资平台发债的监管。\n这些政策基本足够达成今年稳定宏观杠杆率的目标。测算显示，到今年三季度，社会融资总量增速将从去年底的13.5%回落到11.5%、甚至11%。而预计今年名义GDP增速预计在11%以上，社融和名义GDP增速将基本吻合，所以稳定宏观杠杆率的目标靠当前的政策就可以实现。\n监管“风暴”：穿透现象看本质，固本培元\n今年开始的诸多监管“风暴”本质上是着眼长远，固本培元。包括金融科技强监管，平台企业反垄断，和碳达峰行动，似乎让市场有些措手不及，但它们符合过去几年中国树立的经济治理新机制的方向：堵漏洞、补短板、稳杠杆来降低系统性风险，避免金融危机，改善社会问题。\n事实上，近期的监管新举措已是过去六年来第四轮的监管“风暴”。此前三轮分别是2016到2018年的对产能过剩行业的供给侧改革、化解金融风险攻坚战，和环保治理。它们应运而生的宏观背景是，中国经济在2008年后的结构性失衡不断累积，人口红利逐步消散。衡量长期增长可持续性的全要素生产率增速逐年走低，部分行业的监管框架在长年高增长后未能与时俱进。\n因此，自2015年以来的上述数轮监管“风暴”，最终目的是搭建新的监管框架，堵漏洞、补短板、稳杠杆来降低系统性风险。虽然在短期内对市场信心产生了一些担忧，股票等市场资产价格当时有所调整；但是，强监管的“短痛”最终给中国经济带来显著的长期利益：过去数轮监管风暴，最终都提升了中国金融体系的稳健性，使整个宏观杠杆率企稳、债务风险降低、且没有持续挤压私人部门活力，全要素生产率依然保持了平稳。\n譬如，资本外流趋缓后，人民币国际化已经在扩大金融开放、深化国内改革、以及拓展人民币的使用范围的三支柱体系下重新起航；中国金融体系因影子银行清理变得更有韧性，守住了不发生系统性金融风险的底线；而2018年针对互联网、医药、游戏、教育等行业的历轮监管。最终并未抑制其后续的良性发展。\n最近对科技平台企业的监管同样反映了政策层对“短痛”和长远利益的权衡。全球范围内，决策者和研究者都在思考，大型科技平台迅速上升的垄断地位可能已经挤压了中小企业的生存空间，加剧了贫富和劳动者保护等社会问题，并可能在长期或许会抑制创新、威胁金融稳定。因此，此次中国监管的焦点在科技巨头，实际上是引领了全球经济治理的新思潮。\n当然，在这一过程前后，决策层仍可通过加强政策沟通减少给市场带来的不确定性的扰动，进一步增加政策可预见性。一个更为透明的政策环境不仅更能彰显中国着眼长远、固本培元的决心，稳定市场信心，更有助于在逆全球化的思潮下，缓解因为文化隔阂引起的海外对中国政策走向的误读，从而使得中国有望为全球后疫情时代的经济治理机制提供基石，进一步夯实人民币国际化的基础。\n下一步，要注意新政策的节奏。因为一旦进一步收紧监管政策，社融会更大幅度地下跌，则容易超调，对私人部门信心产生影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138203549,"gmtCreate":1621939780881,"gmtModify":1704364780194,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138203549","repostId":"1118239674","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118239674","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1621937890,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118239674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 18:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Some companies may make a huge profit of 10 billion in the first quarter! How profitable is the vaccine industry?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118239674","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"预计全球2021年新冠疫苗销售额有望突破500亿美元。\n\n今日，生物疫苗板块高开，截至收盘，科兴制药飙涨逾11%，仁和药业、未名医药涨停，赛升药业大涨超14%，康泰生物、沃森生物、康希诺-U等跟涨。\n","content":"<p>It is estimated that the global sales of COVID-19 vaccine in 2021 are expected to exceed US $50 billion. Today, the biological vaccine sector opened higher. As of the close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688136\">Sinovac</a>Soared more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000650\">Renhe Pharmaceutical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002581\">Unnamed Medicine</a>Daily limit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300485\">Saisheng Pharmaceutical</a>Soared more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300601\">Kangtai Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a>, CanSino-U, etc. followed suit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f78105d46d2f9369bc879c2844fc482\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news,<b>Yesterday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01177\">China Biopharmaceuticals</a>Announced its first quarter results, revealing that Sinovac Zhongwei's first quarter profit may reach 10 billion yuan. If Sinovac Zhongwei's Q1 profit reaches 10 billion yuan, this will create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">China Pharmaceutical</a>The industry's single-quarter revenue and profit history.</b>Affected by this good news, the biological vaccine sector rose today.</p><p>However, after China Biopharmaceuticals, which announced its results, opened 4.86% higher, it went down all the way. As of the close, it fell 2.87%.</p><p>Another difference from what everyone thinks is that today's surge in Sinovac Pharmaceuticals is not Sinovac Zhongwei, which produces COVID-19 vaccine rights, and there is no equity relationship between them. The former is an innovative biopharmaceutical company mainly engaged in the integration of R&D, production and sales of recombinant protein drugs and microecological preparations, focusing on drug research and development in antiviral, blood, tumor and immunity, degenerative disease and other therapeutic fields.</p><p>The Q1 performance of China Biopharmaceuticals shows that the company's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 16.4% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent was 1.9 billion yuan, an increase of 118.5% over the same period last year. Among them, the profit attributable to associated companies and a joint venture company in the first quarter reached 1.476 billion yuan, which achieved a leap-forward growth compared with only 2.493 million yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>In December last year, China Biopharmaceuticals announced that it would invest US $515 million (approximately HK $4 billion) in Sinovac Zhongwei, holding 15.03% of its equity. Therefore, the market speculates that the profit of China Biopharmaceuticals in the first quarter rose sharply, which may mainly benefit from the profit contribution of Sinovac Zhongwei.<b>Based on China Biopharmaceuticals' profit of nearly 1.5 billion yuan and its 15% equity in Sinovac Zhongwei, Sinovac Zhongwei's Q1 net profit may be nearly 10 billion yuan.</b></p><p>According to the audit materials submitted by Sinovac Zhongwei to the WHO, as of April 1, 2021, the cumulative shipment of Sinovac Zhongwei's COVID-19 inactivated vaccine to 27 countries around the world exceeded 2.7 billion doses.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>Securities speculate that 21Q1 should be around 200 million doses. It is estimated that the net profit of a single inactivated vaccine is 50 yuan, and the net profit rate is about 40-50%. This is consistent with the market's speculation that Sinovac Zhongwei has a net profit of nearly 10 billion.</p><p><b>The demand in COVID-19 vaccine is huge. According to the report of the National Health and Health Commission on the 24th, more than 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been vaccinated nationwide. According to the calculation of 100 yuan per dose, a market of approximately 50 billion yuan has been generated.</b></p><p>According to public data, the cumulative number of vaccinations in COVID-19 vaccine nationwide exceeded 100 million doses on March 27, and exceeded 200 million by April 21, which took 25 days. It took 16 days to vaccinate more than 300 million doses from 200 million doses on May 7, 9 days to exceed 400 million doses on May 16, and only 7 days to exceed 500 million doses on May 23. It can be predicted that the vaccination speed in China will accelerate.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>The outbreak of the epidemic in India has changed the original epidemic expectation. The possible impact of Indian and South African mutant strains on the immune efficacy of existing vaccines makes vaccination not limited to one time, but a large variety that needs to be vaccinated regularly. In addition, the European Union will open the \"New Crown Pass\" on July 1. It is expected that other countries will gradually implement similar \"New Crown Passes\" and gradually open up free movement in some areas and around the world. Sales in COVID-19 vaccine are sustainable. The demand for vaccines is expected to continue to increase in the future.</b></p><p>Since December last year, the UAE became the first country to approve Chinese-made COVID-19 vaccine, Sinopharm Zhongsheng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SVA\">Sinovac Biotech</a>And CanSino's vaccines began to arrive in overseas markets. By the end of the first quarter of this year, China had exported vaccines to 43 countries, with an export volume of 11.9 billion yuan, far exceeding that of last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91032d4da2d6484fd56120d752caff02\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Zhiyan Consulting</p><p>The vaccine industry continues to be hot. The biological vaccine index has soared sharply since 2019. The increase in 2020 was 111%. After the outbreak of the epidemic, based on COVID-19 vaccine logic, the index maintained an upward trend, reaching its peak in July and August. After that, with the approval of COVID-19 vaccine and changes in sales expectations, there was a substantial correction, and the valuation returned to a relatively reasonable range, and the recent trend has rebounded again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/219efc61acdafe285f5aa0f13ad35eea\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In 2021, COVID-19 vaccine companies will enter a period of performance realization, and many institutions are optimistic about the vaccine industry. It is estimated that global COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021 are expected to exceed US $50 billion.</b></p><p>Currently, with the industry dividend period, the stock prices of companies related to the vaccine industry have begun to shine. 100 billion market capitalization leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a>The daily limit has been 36 times in the past year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>, Watson Bio's stock price has repeatedly hit record highs.</p><p>In addition, the revenue of related companies in the vaccine industry chain has increased significantly. For example, mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of non-PVC soft bags, glass bottles for large infusions, supporting pharmaceutical packaging materials, medical devices and other products<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300110\">Huaren Pharmaceutical</a>, the 2020 annual report shows that the company achieved operating income of 1.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 94.624 million yuan, an increase of 124.94% over the same period last year, and both revenue and profit reached the best in history.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some companies may make a huge profit of 10 billion in the first quarter! How profitable is the vaccine industry?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome companies may make a huge profit of 10 billion in the first quarter! How profitable is the vaccine industry?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 18:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is estimated that the global sales of COVID-19 vaccine in 2021 are expected to exceed US $50 billion. Today, the biological vaccine sector opened higher. As of the close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688136\">Sinovac</a>Soared more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000650\">Renhe Pharmaceutical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002581\">Unnamed Medicine</a>Daily limit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300485\">Saisheng Pharmaceutical</a>Soared more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300601\">Kangtai Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a>, CanSino-U, etc. followed suit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f78105d46d2f9369bc879c2844fc482\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news,<b>Yesterday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01177\">China Biopharmaceuticals</a>Announced its first quarter results, revealing that Sinovac Zhongwei's first quarter profit may reach 10 billion yuan. If Sinovac Zhongwei's Q1 profit reaches 10 billion yuan, this will create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">China Pharmaceutical</a>The industry's single-quarter revenue and profit history.</b>Affected by this good news, the biological vaccine sector rose today.</p><p>However, after China Biopharmaceuticals, which announced its results, opened 4.86% higher, it went down all the way. As of the close, it fell 2.87%.</p><p>Another difference from what everyone thinks is that today's surge in Sinovac Pharmaceuticals is not Sinovac Zhongwei, which produces COVID-19 vaccine rights, and there is no equity relationship between them. The former is an innovative biopharmaceutical company mainly engaged in the integration of R&D, production and sales of recombinant protein drugs and microecological preparations, focusing on drug research and development in antiviral, blood, tumor and immunity, degenerative disease and other therapeutic fields.</p><p>The Q1 performance of China Biopharmaceuticals shows that the company's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 16.4% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent was 1.9 billion yuan, an increase of 118.5% over the same period last year. Among them, the profit attributable to associated companies and a joint venture company in the first quarter reached 1.476 billion yuan, which achieved a leap-forward growth compared with only 2.493 million yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>In December last year, China Biopharmaceuticals announced that it would invest US $515 million (approximately HK $4 billion) in Sinovac Zhongwei, holding 15.03% of its equity. Therefore, the market speculates that the profit of China Biopharmaceuticals in the first quarter rose sharply, which may mainly benefit from the profit contribution of Sinovac Zhongwei.<b>Based on China Biopharmaceuticals' profit of nearly 1.5 billion yuan and its 15% equity in Sinovac Zhongwei, Sinovac Zhongwei's Q1 net profit may be nearly 10 billion yuan.</b></p><p>According to the audit materials submitted by Sinovac Zhongwei to the WHO, as of April 1, 2021, the cumulative shipment of Sinovac Zhongwei's COVID-19 inactivated vaccine to 27 countries around the world exceeded 2.7 billion doses.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>Securities speculate that 21Q1 should be around 200 million doses. It is estimated that the net profit of a single inactivated vaccine is 50 yuan, and the net profit rate is about 40-50%. This is consistent with the market's speculation that Sinovac Zhongwei has a net profit of nearly 10 billion.</p><p><b>The demand in COVID-19 vaccine is huge. According to the report of the National Health and Health Commission on the 24th, more than 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been vaccinated nationwide. According to the calculation of 100 yuan per dose, a market of approximately 50 billion yuan has been generated.</b></p><p>According to public data, the cumulative number of vaccinations in COVID-19 vaccine nationwide exceeded 100 million doses on March 27, and exceeded 200 million by April 21, which took 25 days. It took 16 days to vaccinate more than 300 million doses from 200 million doses on May 7, 9 days to exceed 400 million doses on May 16, and only 7 days to exceed 500 million doses on May 23. It can be predicted that the vaccination speed in China will accelerate.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>The outbreak of the epidemic in India has changed the original epidemic expectation. The possible impact of Indian and South African mutant strains on the immune efficacy of existing vaccines makes vaccination not limited to one time, but a large variety that needs to be vaccinated regularly. In addition, the European Union will open the \"New Crown Pass\" on July 1. It is expected that other countries will gradually implement similar \"New Crown Passes\" and gradually open up free movement in some areas and around the world. Sales in COVID-19 vaccine are sustainable. The demand for vaccines is expected to continue to increase in the future.</b></p><p>Since December last year, the UAE became the first country to approve Chinese-made COVID-19 vaccine, Sinopharm Zhongsheng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SVA\">Sinovac Biotech</a>And CanSino's vaccines began to arrive in overseas markets. By the end of the first quarter of this year, China had exported vaccines to 43 countries, with an export volume of 11.9 billion yuan, far exceeding that of last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91032d4da2d6484fd56120d752caff02\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Zhiyan Consulting</p><p>The vaccine industry continues to be hot. The biological vaccine index has soared sharply since 2019. The increase in 2020 was 111%. After the outbreak of the epidemic, based on COVID-19 vaccine logic, the index maintained an upward trend, reaching its peak in July and August. After that, with the approval of COVID-19 vaccine and changes in sales expectations, there was a substantial correction, and the valuation returned to a relatively reasonable range, and the recent trend has rebounded again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/219efc61acdafe285f5aa0f13ad35eea\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In 2021, COVID-19 vaccine companies will enter a period of performance realization, and many institutions are optimistic about the vaccine industry. It is estimated that global COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021 are expected to exceed US $50 billion.</b></p><p>Currently, with the industry dividend period, the stock prices of companies related to the vaccine industry have begun to shine. 100 billion market capitalization leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a>The daily limit has been 36 times in the past year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>, Watson Bio's stock price has repeatedly hit record highs.</p><p>In addition, the revenue of related companies in the vaccine industry chain has increased significantly. For example, mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of non-PVC soft bags, glass bottles for large infusions, supporting pharmaceutical packaging materials, medical devices and other products<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300110\">Huaren Pharmaceutical</a>, the 2020 annual report shows that the company achieved operating income of 1.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 94.624 million yuan, an increase of 124.94% over the same period last year, and both revenue and profit reached the best in history.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e474d690ea02c536f0fd4c03fc3ddef","relate_stocks":{"300142":"沃森生物","300485":"赛升药业","300601":"康泰生物","688136":"科兴制药","688185":"康希诺","002581":"ST未名","000650":"仁和药业"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118239674","content_text":"预计全球2021年新冠疫苗销售额有望突破500亿美元。\n\n今日，生物疫苗板块高开，截至收盘，科兴制药飙涨逾11%，仁和药业、未名医药涨停，赛升药业大涨超14%，康泰生物、沃森生物、康希诺-U等跟涨。\n\n消息面上，昨日中国生物制药公布了一季报业绩，透露科兴中维一季度利润或达100亿元，如果科兴中维Q1盈利达百亿，这将创造中国医药产业的单季度营收和利润历史记录。受此利好消息影响，今日生物疫苗板块行情上涨。\n然而，公布业绩的中国生物制药高开4.86%后，一路走低，截至收盘，跌2.87%。\n另与大家认为的不同的是，今日大涨科兴制药并不是生产新冠疫苗的科兴中维，他们之间也并无任何股权关系。前者是一家主要从事重组蛋白药物和微生态制剂的研发、生产、销售一体化的创新型生物制药企业，专注于抗病毒、血液、肿瘤与免疫、退行性疾病等治疗领域的药物研发。\n中国生物制药Q1业绩显示，公司营收72亿元，较去年同期增长约16.4%；归母净利润19亿元，较去年同期增长118.5%。其中，首季应占联营公司及一家合营公司盈利达到14.76亿元，相比上年同期仅249.3万元实现了跨越式增长。\n去年12月份，中国生物制药宣布向科兴中维出资5.15亿美元(约40亿港元)，持有其15.03%权益。因此，市场推测中国生物制药首季盈利大升，或主要受惠科兴中维利润贡献。根据中国生物制药近15亿元盈利，以及在科兴中维的15%权益计算，科兴中维Q1净利润或近100亿。\n根据科兴中维向 WHO递交的审计材料，截止21年4月1日，科兴中维新冠灭活疫苗向全球27个国家累计发货量超27亿剂，国泰君安证券推测21Q1应该在2亿剂左右，测算灭活疫苗单支净利润在50元，净利率约40-50%，这与市场推测科兴中维近100亿净利润想符合。\n新冠疫苗需求量巨大，根据国家卫健委24日通报，全国新冠疫苗接种超过5亿剂次。按照每剂100元计算，大约产生了500亿元市场。\n根据公开数据，3月27日全国新冠疫苗累计接种突破1亿剂次，至4月21日突破2亿，用了25天。从2亿剂次到5月7日接种超过3亿剂次用了16天，到5月16日突破4亿剂次用了9天时间，再到23日突破5亿剂次则只用了7天时间。可以预测，中国疫苗接种速度还将加快。\n此外，印度疫情爆发，使原有的疫情预期发生改变。印度、南非变异株等对现有疫苗免疫效力可能产生的影响，使疫苗接种可能不仅限于一次，而是需要定期接种的大品种。另欧盟将在7月1日开通“新冠通行证”，预计其他国家也将在随后逐步实行类似的“新冠通行证”逐步开放部分地区直至全球的自由流动，新冠疫苗销售具备持续性。预计未来疫苗需求量还将继续增加。\n自去年12月，阿联酋成为第一个批准中国产新冠疫苗的国家后，国药中生、科兴生物和康希诺的疫苗开始运抵海外市场。今年一季度末时，中国已向 43 个国家出口了疫苗，出口额达到 119 亿元，远超去年全年。\n\n图源：智妍咨询\n疫苗行业热度不减。2019年以来生物疫苗指数大幅飙升。2020年涨幅为111%。疫情爆发后，基于新冠疫苗逻辑，指数维持上涨走势，7、8月份达到峰值。之后随新冠疫苗获批及销售预期变动，出现大幅度回调，估值重回相对合理区间，近期走势重新回升。\n\n2021年新冠疫苗企业进入业绩兑现期，多家机构对疫苗行业持乐观态度，预计全球2021年新冠疫苗销售额有望突破500亿美元。\n当前，伴随行业红利期，疫苗行业相关公司股价已经开始大放异彩。千亿市值龙头万泰生物近一年内涨停36次；复星医药、沃森生物股价屡创历史新高。\n此外，疫苗产业产业链上的相关公司营收大增。比如主要从事非PVC软袋、玻瓶大输液、配套医药包材、医疗器械等产品的研发、生产与销售的华仁药业，2020年年报显示，公司实现营业收入为16.16亿元，同比增长10.56%；实现归母净利润9462.4万元，较上年同期增长124.94%，营收利润双双达到历史最佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300142":0.9,"300485":0.9,"300601":0.9,"688136":0.9,"688185":0.9,"002581":0.9,"000650":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192732247,"gmtCreate":1621229254889,"gmtModify":1704354291020,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192732247","repostId":"1117477819","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117477819","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621227286,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117477819?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-17 12:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Angel of the Times: A provider of oral invisible orthodontic solutions, passed the hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117477819","media":"瑞恩资本Ryanbe...","summary":"2021年5月16日，香港交易所披露了时代天使科技有限有限公司ANGELALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC.(以下简称“时代天使”) 通过聆讯后的招股书。时代天使于2021年1月29日递表，高盛","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94abc669aabd89ec3252b8571e7c3dd0\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On May 16, 2021, the Hong Kong Exchange disclosed that<b>Time Angel Technology Co., Ltd</b>ANGELALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC. Hereinafter referred to as \"<b>Angel of the Times</b>\") approved the prospectus after the hearing. Times Angel submitted the form on January 29, 2021, with Goldman Sachs and CICC as its joint sponsors.</p><p><b>Angel of the Times</b>, is a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China.</p><p>According to the CIC Consulting report, China's invisible orthodontic solution market is highly concentrated, with the market share of the top two market players approximately 82.4%. Measured by cases achieved in 2020,<b>Angel of the Times</b>The market share reached 41.0%,</p><p>The company helps dentists through the Times Angel invisible orthodontic system, which consists of three parts: (1) digital assisted case evaluation support and orthodontic plan design services, (2) invisible appliances, and (3) cloud service platform iOrtho.</p><p>The company currently sells four invisible appliances, including Times Angel Standard Edition, Times Angel Champion Edition, Times Angel Children Edition and COMFOS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/921b4d76837822eb827ad8104a0003fb\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>During the Track Record Period,<b>Angel of the Times</b>The number of dental practitioners served increased from approximately 11,500 in 2018 to approximately 15,800 in 2019 and to approximately 19,900 in 2020. The number of cases completed by the company increased from approximately 77,700 in 2018 to approximately 120,100 in 2019 and to approximately 137,600 in 2020.</p><p>The prospectus shows that in the past 2018, 2019 and 2020,<b>Angel of the Times</b>The operating income was RMB 488 million, 646 million and 817 million respectively, and the corresponding gross profit margins were 63.8%, 64.6% and 70.4% respectively; The corresponding net profits were RMB 58 million, RMB 68 million and RMB 150 million, respectively.</p>","source":"lsy1570073568970","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Angel of the Times: A provider of oral invisible orthodontic solutions, passed the hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAngel of the Times: A provider of oral invisible orthodontic solutions, passed the hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">瑞恩资本Ryanbe...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-17 12:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94abc669aabd89ec3252b8571e7c3dd0\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On May 16, 2021, the Hong Kong Exchange disclosed that<b>Time Angel Technology Co., Ltd</b>ANGELALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC. Hereinafter referred to as \"<b>Angel of the Times</b>\") approved the prospectus after the hearing. Times Angel submitted the form on January 29, 2021, with Goldman Sachs and CICC as its joint sponsors.</p><p><b>Angel of the Times</b>, is a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China.</p><p>According to the CIC Consulting report, China's invisible orthodontic solution market is highly concentrated, with the market share of the top two market players approximately 82.4%. Measured by cases achieved in 2020,<b>Angel of the Times</b>The market share reached 41.0%,</p><p>The company helps dentists through the Times Angel invisible orthodontic system, which consists of three parts: (1) digital assisted case evaluation support and orthodontic plan design services, (2) invisible appliances, and (3) cloud service platform iOrtho.</p><p>The company currently sells four invisible appliances, including Times Angel Standard Edition, Times Angel Champion Edition, Times Angel Children Edition and COMFOS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/921b4d76837822eb827ad8104a0003fb\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>During the Track Record Period,<b>Angel of the Times</b>The number of dental practitioners served increased from approximately 11,500 in 2018 to approximately 15,800 in 2019 and to approximately 19,900 in 2020. The number of cases completed by the company increased from approximately 77,700 in 2018 to approximately 120,100 in 2019 and to approximately 137,600 in 2020.</p><p>The prospectus shows that in the past 2018, 2019 and 2020,<b>Angel of the Times</b>The operating income was RMB 488 million, 646 million and 817 million respectively, and the corresponding gross profit margins were 63.8%, 64.6% and 70.4% respectively; The corresponding net profits were RMB 58 million, RMB 68 million and RMB 150 million, respectively.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EJr3n2c5X96YpLLvVbCo8Q\">瑞恩资本Ryanbe...</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EJr3n2c5X96YpLLvVbCo8Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117477819","content_text":"2021年5月16日，香港交易所披露了时代天使科技有限有限公司ANGELALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC.(以下简称“时代天使”) 通过聆讯后的招股书。时代天使于2021年1月29日递表，高盛、中金公司为其联席保荐人。\n时代天使，是中国领先的隐形矫治解决方案提供商。\n根据灼识咨询报告，中国的隐形矫治解决方案市场高度集中，前两大市场参与者的市占率约82.4%，按2020年达成案例计量，时代天使的的市场占有率达41.0%，\n公司通过时代天使隐形矫治系统助力牙科医生，其由三部分组成：(1)数字化辅助案例评估支持及矫治方案设计服务，(2)隐形矫治器，及(3)云服务平台iOrtho 。\n公司目前销售四种隐形矫治器，包括时代天使标准版、时代天使冠军版、时代天使儿童版以及COMFOS。\n\n于业绩纪录期，时代天使服务的牙科医生数量由2018年的约11,500位增至2019年的约15,800位，并增至2020年的约19,900位。公司达成案例由2018年的约77,700例增至2019年的约120,100例，并增至2020年的约137,600例。\n招股书显示，在过去的2018年、2019年和2020年，时代天使的营业收入分别为人民币4.88亿、6.46亿和8.17亿元，相应的毛利率分别为63.8%、64.6%、70.4%；相应的净利润分别为人民币0.58亿、0.68亿和1.50亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}