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2021-06-23

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The latest research and judgment from the chief executive of Haitong Securities is here! The stock market ushered in a better window in midsummer

2021-06-23

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The stock market ushered in a better window in midsummer\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 18:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>From June 23rd to 25th, Haitong Securities held the 2021 medium-term strategy meeting. In the main forum session this morning, Xun Yugen, chief economist and chief strategist of Haitong Securities, and Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst, discussed the macroeconomic issues that the market is concerned about. Economic-related topics and A-share market strategies were analyzed in depth. Xun Yugen said that inflationary pressure is expected to ease in the second half of the year, the index is expected to hit a new high this year, and the market will usher in a good window period in midsummer. He suggested that the structure is surprisingly upright, leading high-quality companies represented by the \"Mao Index\" are still well allocated, and intelligent manufacturing with rapid profit growth and compliance with policy directions is worthy of...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NpdUE1xWHsuJ0wlGCXJWHA\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NpdUE1xWHsuJ0wlGCXJWHA\">中国证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","600837":"海通证券","000001.SH":"上证指数","06837":"海通证券"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NpdUE1xWHsuJ0wlGCXJWHA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158814488","content_text":"6月23日-25日，海通证券召开2021年中期策略会，在今日上午的主论坛环节，海通证券首席经济学家兼首席策略分析师荀玉根及首席宏观分析师梁中华，就市场关注的宏观经济相关话题以及A股市场策略等进行了深度解析。\n荀玉根表示，通胀压力下半年有望缓解，指数今年有望创新高，市场在盛夏迎来较好窗口期。他建议，结构上守正出奇，以“茅指数”为代表的龙头优质公司仍是较好配置，盈利增长较快、顺应政策方向的智能制造值得关注。\n宏观经济延续上半年趋势\n从国内宏观经济走势来看，梁中华认为，下半年国内经济和政策预计仍会延续上半年的趋势。当前我国经济总量正常，但结构性分化很大，主要是终端消费还偏弱，政策重点是调结构、均衡经济。\n对应到货币政策上，梁中华表示，接下来预计仍将保持“宽货币、紧信用”的主基调。另外，抓住稳增长压力较小的窗口期，化解房地产、地方债务、中小银行等方面的风险。\n“本轮经济增长最快的时候已经过去。”梁中华指出，总量上来看，社融的高点在去年二季度，经济的高点在去年四季度；结构上来看，投资的高点在去年四季度，工业生产的高点在今年前两月，消费则会延续弱复苏的态势。\n在此背景下，梁中华强调，权益市场更多关注结构性机会，关键还是要挖掘有业绩增长、能够支撑估值的领域，继续关注国际油价上行的机会。如果资金回笼、供给增加、通胀短期偏高等因素导致利率上行，可以择机逐步配置利率债。\n股票市场今年还有机会\n对于目前A股的境况，荀玉根从估值、资金、盈利等几个方面进行了分析。\n“参考历史年度振幅，今年指数再创新高概率偏大。”荀玉根指出，统计A股各主要股指在2000-2020年间每一年的振幅（年内最高价相对最低价的涨幅），上证综指2000年以来年振幅基本都在25%以上，沪深300振幅30%以上，万得全A也在30%以上。今年以来，前述三大指数的振幅分别只有12%、21%和15%。如果前期低点有效（今年上证综指的低点是3月9日的3328点，沪深300则是3月25日的4883点），那参考历史股指的波动幅度，今年股市还有进一步向上拓宽的空间。\n在估值层面，虽然短期看目前A股估值略偏贵，但中长期视角看，A股估值中枢有望上移：一是ROE上行，当前我国经济步入产业结构转型期；二是利率下行；三是居民资产配置转向权益资产。\n从资金面角度看，春节后股市微观资金仍在净流入，春节后至今（截至6月16日，下同）偏股型基金的发行量仍达5700亿份，年初至今新发规模高达1.2万亿份（预计已完成建仓的为9000亿），整体基金的存量规模依旧在上升。外资方面，2月18日至今，北上资金净流入1400亿元，年初至今更是已经净流入2100亿元，日均流入量高达21亿元，创历史新高。\n上市公司盈利层面，本轮盈利回升周期在时间和空间上都没走完。按照利润的季度占比规律推算，今年全A归母净利润同比增速在30%以上，对应两年年化增速17%以上；剔除金融股、“两油”后，全部A股归母净利润同比增速预计在45%以上，两年年化增速30%以上。考虑到2019年后上市公司包括商誉减值在内的资产减值损失开始下降，今年资产减值损失或将小于2020年，因此今年A股利润增速存在向上超预期的可能。\n策略上守正出奇\n近年来，A股市场出现新分化，主要体现在个股及基金净值表现、市值结构等方面。荀玉根认为，这一分化趋势还将延续，未来我国股市两极分化的马太效应将更加显著。\n展望下半年，荀玉根认为，守正出奇方能致胜。守正出奇，即以“茅指数”为代表的第一梯队超大市值公司仍然值得配置。2021年是“十四五”规划元年，“十四五”规划纲要指出要重点提高制造业发展质量，以科技创新突破核心技术是当前国家重大战略，科技赋能制造业是未来发展趋势。\n在此背景下，今年智能制造有望崛起，智能制造领域基本面更强，政策支持智能制造快速崛起，智能制造基金持仓热度不高。荀玉根建议关注三大领域：信息技术的应用，新能源技术的应用，传统制造技术改进与升级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"600837":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"06837":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121891379,"gmtCreate":1624457930691,"gmtModify":1703837375670,"author":{"id":"3573175703413443","authorId":"3573175703413443","name":"Jiankunhaha","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9a234f5b2d249991c1c7babc335410","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573175703413443","authorIdStr":"3573175703413443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121891379","repostId":"1149419785","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":121895007,"gmtCreate":1624458014109,"gmtModify":1703837381658,"author":{"id":"3573175703413443","authorId":"3573175703413443","name":"Jiankunhaha","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9a234f5b2d249991c1c7babc335410","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573175703413443","idStr":"3573175703413443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121895007","repostId":"1158814488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158814488","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624445249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158814488?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 18:47","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The latest research and judgment from the chief executive of Haitong Securities is here! The stock market ushered in a better window in midsummer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158814488","media":"中国证券报","summary":"6月23日-25日，海通证券召开2021年中期策略会，在今日上午的主论坛环节，海通证券首席经济学家兼首席策略分析师荀玉根及首席宏观分析师梁中华，就市场关注的宏观经济相关话题以及A股市场策略等进行了深度","content":"<p><div>From June 23rd to 25th, Haitong Securities held the 2021 medium-term strategy meeting. In the main forum session this morning, Xun Yugen, chief economist and chief strategist of Haitong Securities, and Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst, discussed the macroeconomic issues that the market is concerned about. Economic-related topics and A-share market strategies were analyzed in depth. Xun Yugen said that inflationary pressure is expected to ease in the second half of the year, the index is expected to hit a new high this year, and the market will usher in a good window period in midsummer. He suggested that the structure is surprisingly upright, leading high-quality companies represented by the \"Mao Index\" are still well allocated, and intelligent manufacturing with rapid profit growth and compliance with policy directions is worthy of...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NpdUE1xWHsuJ0wlGCXJWHA\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The latest research and judgment from the chief executive of Haitong Securities is here! The stock market ushered in a better window in midsummer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe latest research and judgment from the chief executive of Haitong Securities is here! The stock market ushered in a better window in midsummer\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 18:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>From June 23rd to 25th, Haitong Securities held the 2021 medium-term strategy meeting. In the main forum session this morning, Xun Yugen, chief economist and chief strategist of Haitong Securities, and Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst, discussed the macroeconomic issues that the market is concerned about. Economic-related topics and A-share market strategies were analyzed in depth. Xun Yugen said that inflationary pressure is expected to ease in the second half of the year, the index is expected to hit a new high this year, and the market will usher in a good window period in midsummer. He suggested that the structure is surprisingly upright, leading high-quality companies represented by the \"Mao Index\" are still well allocated, and intelligent manufacturing with rapid profit growth and compliance with policy directions is worthy of...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NpdUE1xWHsuJ0wlGCXJWHA\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NpdUE1xWHsuJ0wlGCXJWHA\">中国证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","600837":"海通证券","000001.SH":"上证指数","06837":"海通证券"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NpdUE1xWHsuJ0wlGCXJWHA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158814488","content_text":"6月23日-25日，海通证券召开2021年中期策略会，在今日上午的主论坛环节，海通证券首席经济学家兼首席策略分析师荀玉根及首席宏观分析师梁中华，就市场关注的宏观经济相关话题以及A股市场策略等进行了深度解析。\n荀玉根表示，通胀压力下半年有望缓解，指数今年有望创新高，市场在盛夏迎来较好窗口期。他建议，结构上守正出奇，以“茅指数”为代表的龙头优质公司仍是较好配置，盈利增长较快、顺应政策方向的智能制造值得关注。\n宏观经济延续上半年趋势\n从国内宏观经济走势来看，梁中华认为，下半年国内经济和政策预计仍会延续上半年的趋势。当前我国经济总量正常，但结构性分化很大，主要是终端消费还偏弱，政策重点是调结构、均衡经济。\n对应到货币政策上，梁中华表示，接下来预计仍将保持“宽货币、紧信用”的主基调。另外，抓住稳增长压力较小的窗口期，化解房地产、地方债务、中小银行等方面的风险。\n“本轮经济增长最快的时候已经过去。”梁中华指出，总量上来看，社融的高点在去年二季度，经济的高点在去年四季度；结构上来看，投资的高点在去年四季度，工业生产的高点在今年前两月，消费则会延续弱复苏的态势。\n在此背景下，梁中华强调，权益市场更多关注结构性机会，关键还是要挖掘有业绩增长、能够支撑估值的领域，继续关注国际油价上行的机会。如果资金回笼、供给增加、通胀短期偏高等因素导致利率上行，可以择机逐步配置利率债。\n股票市场今年还有机会\n对于目前A股的境况，荀玉根从估值、资金、盈利等几个方面进行了分析。\n“参考历史年度振幅，今年指数再创新高概率偏大。”荀玉根指出，统计A股各主要股指在2000-2020年间每一年的振幅（年内最高价相对最低价的涨幅），上证综指2000年以来年振幅基本都在25%以上，沪深300振幅30%以上，万得全A也在30%以上。今年以来，前述三大指数的振幅分别只有12%、21%和15%。如果前期低点有效（今年上证综指的低点是3月9日的3328点，沪深300则是3月25日的4883点），那参考历史股指的波动幅度，今年股市还有进一步向上拓宽的空间。\n在估值层面，虽然短期看目前A股估值略偏贵，但中长期视角看，A股估值中枢有望上移：一是ROE上行，当前我国经济步入产业结构转型期；二是利率下行；三是居民资产配置转向权益资产。\n从资金面角度看，春节后股市微观资金仍在净流入，春节后至今（截至6月16日，下同）偏股型基金的发行量仍达5700亿份，年初至今新发规模高达1.2万亿份（预计已完成建仓的为9000亿），整体基金的存量规模依旧在上升。外资方面，2月18日至今，北上资金净流入1400亿元，年初至今更是已经净流入2100亿元，日均流入量高达21亿元，创历史新高。\n上市公司盈利层面，本轮盈利回升周期在时间和空间上都没走完。按照利润的季度占比规律推算，今年全A归母净利润同比增速在30%以上，对应两年年化增速17%以上；剔除金融股、“两油”后，全部A股归母净利润同比增速预计在45%以上，两年年化增速30%以上。考虑到2019年后上市公司包括商誉减值在内的资产减值损失开始下降，今年资产减值损失或将小于2020年，因此今年A股利润增速存在向上超预期的可能。\n策略上守正出奇\n近年来，A股市场出现新分化，主要体现在个股及基金净值表现、市值结构等方面。荀玉根认为，这一分化趋势还将延续，未来我国股市两极分化的马太效应将更加显著。\n展望下半年，荀玉根认为，守正出奇方能致胜。守正出奇，即以“茅指数”为代表的第一梯队超大市值公司仍然值得配置。2021年是“十四五”规划元年，“十四五”规划纲要指出要重点提高制造业发展质量，以科技创新突破核心技术是当前国家重大战略，科技赋能制造业是未来发展趋势。\n在此背景下，今年智能制造有望崛起，智能制造领域基本面更强，政策支持智能制造快速崛起，智能制造基金持仓热度不高。荀玉根建议关注三大领域：信息技术的应用，新能源技术的应用，传统制造技术改进与升级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"600837":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"06837":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121891379,"gmtCreate":1624457930691,"gmtModify":1703837375670,"author":{"id":"3573175703413443","authorId":"3573175703413443","name":"Jiankunhaha","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9a234f5b2d249991c1c7babc335410","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573175703413443","idStr":"3573175703413443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121891379","repostId":"1149419785","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}