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LEE JIA SHENG
2022-09-28
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LEE JIA SHENG
2022-09-28
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LEE JIA SHENG
2022-09-23
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LEE JIA SHENG
2022-09-09
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08:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美股半导体周期运行到哪里了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281214937","media":"中信证券研究","summary":"2022Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>2022Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点</blockquote><p>中短期视角，半导体行业具有典型周期属性，每次周期持续约3~4年，库存水平是判断行业股价拐点的最核心变量，历次周期中企业EPS、估值调整幅度等，亦能提供良好的基准参考。全球半导体行业当前正处于周期下行通道，我们判断行业库存水平大概率已在三季度见顶，并开始回落，股价亦有望跟随库存水平触底回升。SOX指数（费城半导体）自年初高点已累计下跌44%，调整幅度和历史平均水平（45%）接近，SOX指数、主要代表性企业动态估值亦接近2018/19年下行周期底部水平，市场底部特征明显。考虑到本次下行周期同时伴随供给过剩和需求萎缩，我们虽坚信美股半导体板块股价触底回升的判断，但板块业绩预期短期仍可能面临需求端的持续扰动，股价回升斜率亦大概率弱于2018/19年等历史可比周期。遵从“先进先出”周期法则，并结合个股业绩确定性、估值合理性。</p><p><b>▍半导体：具有典型周期属性，库存水平为股价核心影响变量。</b></p><p>过去较长时间，全球半导体行业基本保持略高于GDP的年均复合增速，反应半导体产业和宏观经济的较强相关性，以及全社会“含硅量”的持续提升。中短期视角，半导体行业固有的“产能-库存”属性，会带来的阶段性产业供需错配，导致产业具有典型周期属性，每个完整周期持续约3~4年。股价更多是对预期、而非事实的反应，历史数据回溯显示，SOX（费城半导体指数）股价同比变化，和行业库存水平同比变化（库存天数绝对额变化）具有明显负相关性，简单来说，库存水平的高点，一般对应SOX指数股价低点，这亦和半导体行业的主要价格形成机制相一致。我们本篇报告致力于全球半导体周期运行位置的判断，讨论范畴主要聚焦于逻辑芯片、存储芯片两大类，并致力于回答：半导体行业本轮周期库存水平高点、市场对下行周期预期计入程度、本次半导体周期相较于历史的异同之处等。</p><p><b>▍库存水平：Q3大概率为本轮周期高点。</b></p><p>据SIA数据，2022Q2，全球半导体库存天数约为108天左右，结合相关厂商三季报数据，我们判断行业库存水平在三季度仍在进一步上升。结合<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、联发科、Intel等企业最新表述，我们判断Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点，板块有望经历2022Q4、2023Q1两个季度的库存去化之后，在2023Q2左右恢复到正常库存水平。当前消费电子（智能手机、PC）的疲弱已经被市场所充分认知，但市场亦担忧后续<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>手机、服务器需求的走弱，推动全球半导体库存水平的上行。</p><p>我们分析认为：</p><p>1）上市初期销售数据显示，iPhone 14Pro/Pro max占iPhone 14系列销量比重有望从上几代产品的50%左右，提升至60%~65%的水平。理想产品组合、高端消费人群购买力，以及有利的高端手机市场竞争格局等，料将持续支撑苹果手机的短期表现；</p><p>2）展望2023年，依然强劲的北美云计算市场需求，以及明年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>、AMD新一代服务器CPU芯片带来的换机需求，有望推动北美云厂商资本开支继续维持10%左右的增长，进而支撑全球服务器市场需求。</p><p><b>▍市场调整：自高点股价跌幅、估值收缩、EPS预期调整，较历史下行周期底部已较为接近。</b></p><p>半导体行业历次周期底部的股价、EPS调整幅度，以及市场触底阶段的估值水平等，是市场在底部位置的重要参考基准。自年初高点至今，SOX指数已经累计下跌44%，跌幅明显高于最近数次下行周期，仅好于科网泡沫时期（-84%），以及2008年金融危机时期（-69%）；估值层面，目前SOX PE(NTM)已跌至14X附近，正在接近2018/2019年周期底部的水平，同时从各环节代表性的企业来看，台积电（晶圆制造）、高通（IC设计）的PE（NTM）分别为10、11X，而2018年/19年周期低点分别为12、15X，同时存储芯片厂商当前PB为1.2X，亦和2018年/19年周期低点（1.0X）接近；EPS层面，今年Q2以来，美股主要半导体企业业绩一致预期开始进入向下调整通道，存储芯片领域的美光调整最为剧烈，同时<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、英特尔、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">应用材料</a>等企业亦有明显向下调整，且三季报之后基本均有显著调整。</p><p><b>▍本次周期：供给过剩、需求萎缩并存，股价回升斜率大概率弱于历史。</b></p><p>最近一次具有可比性的2018/19年周期，板块下行更多源于供给过剩带来的阶段性供需结构失衡。本次下行周期亦存在供给过剩的情形，过去两年的资本开支、产能扩张情形和2017/18年较为相似，但资本开支密度更高。本次周期最明显特征在于：供给过剩同时，亦伴随需求端的快速下滑。以PC为例，预计今年全球PC销量将有接近20%的下滑，预计明年仍将是5%~10%的下滑，同时美联储货币紧缩周期，亦带来全球宏观经济、需求不确定性持续攀升。我们判断，本轮美股半导体周期库存基本筑顶，但考虑到本次下行周期中需求端的持续萎缩，美股半导体板块在股价回升阶段仍可能面临较多来自需求侧的扰动，且股价回升斜率大概率弱于2018/19年等历史可比周期。</p><p><b>▍风险因素：</b></p><p>全球经济超预期衰退风险；欧美通胀回落速度缓慢导致货币政策超预期收紧风险；全球地缘政治冲突导致技术、人才跨境流动困难风险；部分企业资本开支缩减缓慢导致供给出清缓慢风险；消费电子、数据中心硬件需求超预期下行风险；市场竞争加剧、企业核心技术人员流失风险等。</p><p><b>▍投资策略：</b></p><p>半导体行业具有典型周期属性，行业库存水平趋势变化是决定股价走势的核心变量，我们判断2022Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点，同时结合行业指数、个股自高点的股价累计跌幅、估值收缩、EPS一致预期调整幅度等，当前板块底部特征较为明显。考虑到本次全球半导体下行周期中亦伴随需求端萎缩，虽股价正在触底回升，但我们预计板块股价回升斜率大概率弱于2018/19年等历史可比周期。</p></body></html>","source":"zxzqyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股半导体周期运行到哪里了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-08 08:51 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/quNsLX2eNqGCkCrT0AVjdQ><strong>中信证券研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2022Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点中短期视角，半导体行业具有典型周期属性，每次周期持续约3~4年，库存水平是判断行业股价拐点的最核心变量，历次周期中企业EPS、估值调整幅度等，亦能提供良好的基准参考。全球半导体行业当前正处于周期下行通道，我们判断行业库存水平大概率已在三季度见顶，并开始回落，股价亦有望跟随库存水平触底回升。SOX指数（费城半导体）自年初高点已累计下跌44%，调整幅度和历史...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/quNsLX2eNqGCkCrT0AVjdQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95fa9542004799a41389274d58f4daa2","relate_stocks":{"BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4579":"人工智能","INTC":"英特尔","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0321505439.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Acc SGD","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4515":"5G概念","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/quNsLX2eNqGCkCrT0AVjdQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2281214937","content_text":"2022Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点中短期视角，半导体行业具有典型周期属性，每次周期持续约3~4年，库存水平是判断行业股价拐点的最核心变量，历次周期中企业EPS、估值调整幅度等，亦能提供良好的基准参考。全球半导体行业当前正处于周期下行通道，我们判断行业库存水平大概率已在三季度见顶，并开始回落，股价亦有望跟随库存水平触底回升。SOX指数（费城半导体）自年初高点已累计下跌44%，调整幅度和历史平均水平（45%）接近，SOX指数、主要代表性企业动态估值亦接近2018/19年下行周期底部水平，市场底部特征明显。考虑到本次下行周期同时伴随供给过剩和需求萎缩，我们虽坚信美股半导体板块股价触底回升的判断，但板块业绩预期短期仍可能面临需求端的持续扰动，股价回升斜率亦大概率弱于2018/19年等历史可比周期。遵从“先进先出”周期法则，并结合个股业绩确定性、估值合理性。▍半导体：具有典型周期属性，库存水平为股价核心影响变量。过去较长时间，全球半导体行业基本保持略高于GDP的年均复合增速，反应半导体产业和宏观经济的较强相关性，以及全社会“含硅量”的持续提升。中短期视角，半导体行业固有的“产能-库存”属性，会带来的阶段性产业供需错配，导致产业具有典型周期属性，每个完整周期持续约3~4年。股价更多是对预期、而非事实的反应，历史数据回溯显示，SOX（费城半导体指数）股价同比变化，和行业库存水平同比变化（库存天数绝对额变化）具有明显负相关性，简单来说，库存水平的高点，一般对应SOX指数股价低点，这亦和半导体行业的主要价格形成机制相一致。我们本篇报告致力于全球半导体周期运行位置的判断，讨论范畴主要聚焦于逻辑芯片、存储芯片两大类，并致力于回答：半导体行业本轮周期库存水平高点、市场对下行周期预期计入程度、本次半导体周期相较于历史的异同之处等。▍库存水平：Q3大概率为本轮周期高点。据SIA数据，2022Q2，全球半导体库存天数约为108天左右，结合相关厂商三季报数据，我们判断行业库存水平在三季度仍在进一步上升。结合台积电、高通、联发科、Intel等企业最新表述，我们判断Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点，板块有望经历2022Q4、2023Q1两个季度的库存去化之后，在2023Q2左右恢复到正常库存水平。当前消费电子（智能手机、PC）的疲弱已经被市场所充分认知，但市场亦担忧后续苹果手机、服务器需求的走弱，推动全球半导体库存水平的上行。我们分析认为：1）上市初期销售数据显示，iPhone 14Pro/Pro max占iPhone 14系列销量比重有望从上几代产品的50%左右，提升至60%~65%的水平。理想产品组合、高端消费人群购买力，以及有利的高端手机市场竞争格局等，料将持续支撑苹果手机的短期表现；2）展望2023年，依然强劲的北美云计算市场需求，以及明年英特尔、AMD新一代服务器CPU芯片带来的换机需求，有望推动北美云厂商资本开支继续维持10%左右的增长，进而支撑全球服务器市场需求。▍市场调整：自高点股价跌幅、估值收缩、EPS预期调整，较历史下行周期底部已较为接近。半导体行业历次周期底部的股价、EPS调整幅度，以及市场触底阶段的估值水平等，是市场在底部位置的重要参考基准。自年初高点至今，SOX指数已经累计下跌44%，跌幅明显高于最近数次下行周期，仅好于科网泡沫时期（-84%），以及2008年金融危机时期（-69%）；估值层面，目前SOX PE(NTM)已跌至14X附近，正在接近2018/2019年周期底部的水平，同时从各环节代表性的企业来看，台积电（晶圆制造）、高通（IC设计）的PE（NTM）分别为10、11X，而2018年/19年周期低点分别为12、15X，同时存储芯片厂商当前PB为1.2X，亦和2018年/19年周期低点（1.0X）接近；EPS层面，今年Q2以来，美股主要半导体企业业绩一致预期开始进入向下调整通道，存储芯片领域的美光调整最为剧烈，同时英伟达、英特尔、应用材料等企业亦有明显向下调整，且三季报之后基本均有显著调整。▍本次周期：供给过剩、需求萎缩并存，股价回升斜率大概率弱于历史。最近一次具有可比性的2018/19年周期，板块下行更多源于供给过剩带来的阶段性供需结构失衡。本次下行周期亦存在供给过剩的情形，过去两年的资本开支、产能扩张情形和2017/18年较为相似，但资本开支密度更高。本次周期最明显特征在于：供给过剩同时，亦伴随需求端的快速下滑。以PC为例，预计今年全球PC销量将有接近20%的下滑，预计明年仍将是5%~10%的下滑，同时美联储货币紧缩周期，亦带来全球宏观经济、需求不确定性持续攀升。我们判断，本轮美股半导体周期库存基本筑顶，但考虑到本次下行周期中需求端的持续萎缩，美股半导体板块在股价回升阶段仍可能面临较多来自需求侧的扰动，且股价回升斜率大概率弱于2018/19年等历史可比周期。▍风险因素：全球经济超预期衰退风险；欧美通胀回落速度缓慢导致货币政策超预期收紧风险；全球地缘政治冲突导致技术、人才跨境流动困难风险；部分企业资本开支缩减缓慢导致供给出清缓慢风险；消费电子、数据中心硬件需求超预期下行风险；市场竞争加剧、企业核心技术人员流失风险等。▍投资策略：半导体行业具有典型周期属性，行业库存水平趋势变化是决定股价走势的核心变量，我们判断2022Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点，同时结合行业指数、个股自高点的股价累计跌幅、估值收缩、EPS一致预期调整幅度等，当前板块底部特征较为明显。考虑到本次全球半导体下行周期中亦伴随需求端萎缩，虽股价正在触底回升，但我们预计板块股价回升斜率大概率弱于2018/19年等历史可比周期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919760646,"gmtCreate":1663862500186,"gmtModify":1676537352314,"author":{"id":"3574114530832439","authorId":"3574114530832439","name":"LEE 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