Lawrance personal page - To The Moon

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2021-04-09

$SOS Limited(SOS)$gogogo

2021-03-04

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$?

2021-03-03

$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$fda？？

2021-03-01

$SOS Limited(SOS)$fly to the moon ！

2021-02-27

$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$?

2021-02-19

$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$fed up

2021-02-19

$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$where is the report

2021-02-18

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U.S. stocks: Twenty years of unity history

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If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. Originally, it was a * * company, and speculation was useless.","text":"If you don't pull it tonight, you will cut the meat and stop the loss. If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. Originally, it was a * * company, and speculation was useless.","html":"If you don't pull it tonight, you will cut the meat and stop the loss. If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. 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Inc.(U)$?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b05dda53794a57e4c09dfb82032e66d","width":"898","height":"195"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364590871","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365481144,"gmtCreate":1614770660188,"gmtModify":1704774994949,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADMP\">$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$</a>fda？？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADMP\">$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$</a>fda？？","text":"$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$fda？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365481144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362305182,"gmtCreate":1614593214946,"gmtModify":1704772794801,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>fly to the moon ！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>fly to the moon ！","text":"$SOS Limited(SOS)$fly to the moon ！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073aa4df108056ffcf7bdca006869fb","width":"1176","height":"2091"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362305182","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366989563,"gmtCreate":1614383909352,"gmtModify":1704771380398,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHIP\">$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHIP\">$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$</a>?","text":"$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366989563","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387133078,"gmtCreate":1613726474794,"gmtModify":1704884178040,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADMP\">$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$</a>fed up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADMP\">$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$</a>fed up","text":"$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$fed 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report","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384753279","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384259858,"gmtCreate":1613658158374,"gmtModify":1704883314612,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384259858","repostId":"1152855899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152855899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613657987,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152855899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-18 22:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks: Twenty years of unity history","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152855899","media":"国盛策略","summary":"前言：年初以来，A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，机构抱团愈演愈烈，“抱团股”强势上涨，引发了市场畏高情绪升温。近期“抱团股”出现回调，投资者对于“龙头抱团过紧”，“抱团瓦解”的担忧开始加剧。那么抱团现象","content":"<p><b>Foreword:</b>Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has shown an extreme differentiation pattern, with institutional groupings becoming more and more fierce, and the strong rise of \"group stocks\", which has triggered the market's fear of high prices. Recently, there has been a correction in \"group stocks\", and investors' worries about \"the leading group is too tight\" and \"the group collapses\" have begun to intensify. So how long can the phenomenon of grouping last? Will the group collapse? How will Baotuan be interpreted in the future? The experience of U.S. stocks in the past 20 years has provided us with reference.</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. U.S. stocks: Institutional groups are the norm</b></p><p><b>It is the norm for U.S. stock institutions to group together, and the right to speak of institutions is constantly increasing.</b>With the development and growth of U.S. stock institutions, the proportion of institutional shareholdings has increased significantly in the past 20 years. At present, the market value of institutional holdings accounts for as much as 70% of the market value of the whole market, becoming the dominant force in the U.S. stock market. As of 2020, stocks with institutional shareholding ratios of more than 80% account for 33%, which was only 2% in 1999; Individual stocks with a shareholding ratio between 50 and 80% account for 25%, which was only 10% in 1999.</p><p><b>The group of U.S. stock institutions continues to deepen, and institutional heavyweight stocks have been overweighted for a long time.</b>If U.S. stocks with institutional shareholdings accounting for more than 80% are regarded as institutional heavyweight stocks, in the past 20 years, institutions' holdings in U.S. stocks have increased from less than 10% to nearly 50%, and the overweight ratio has continued to expand. In 1999, the overweight will reach 5 points, and the overweight will reach 12 points in 2020.</p><p><b>2. U.S. stocks: What do institutions unite?</b></p><p><b>1. Group consumption and growth</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors in U.S. stocks gather together for consumption and growth.</b>The top 100 Awkwardness stocks of institutional investors in the U.S. stock market are concentrated in consumption and growth. The proportion of institutional Awkwardness stocks with consumption and growth styles and the proportion of stock market value are always higher than 50%, which is the main group direction of institutional investors. The group-holding style has not been stable in the past two decades. From 2000 to 2007, institutions increased their positions in financial real estate and cycles in stages. However, since 2007, institutions have re-allocated consumption and technology, and the number of individual stocks and market value The proportion has increased significantly, and the current market value of consumption and growth has exceeded 80%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a40c4ae37bc0cbfae5eb61fb2c9e598\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88dd627c1b879c24bf11ed44da8031a8\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of specific industries, before 2007, institutions loosened their groups to energy and industry, but since 2007, they have adhered to information technology and optional consumption.</b>From 2000 to 2007, among the top 100 institutional holdings, energy, industry, communications and other industries increased their holdings the most, reaching 9.30%, 1.96% and 0.78% respectively; Since 2007, the information technology, optional consumption and pharmaceutical industries have regained substantial increases in their holdings, with increases in holdings reaching 13.90%, 11.19% and 1.22% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04030f35e375b711e021c4d037e798f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6dbfda9b73bba7360778a554ce60c7\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Baotuan leader</b></p><p><b>The pursuit of leaders by U.S. stock institutions has never stopped in the past 20 years, and has intensified since 2009.</b></p><p><b>First, judging from the number of shareholding institutions, the number of leading shareholding institutions is far ahead.</b>The top 20% of U.S. stocks in circulating market value represent leaders, and the bottom 80% in circulating market value represent non-leaders. The median number of institutions holding leaders has increased from 230 20 years ago to more than 700, while institutions holding non-leaders The median number level is still only about 100.</p><p><b>Further grouped according to the circulating market value, the number of shares held by leading institutions is dominant.</b>Grouping U.S. stocks according to circulating market capitalization, the gap in the number of shareholding institutions with circulating market capitalization greater than 300 billion U.S. dollars, 200-300 billion U.S. dollars, 100-200 billion U.S. dollars, and 50-100 billion U.S. dollars has been widening in the past 10 years. The larger the market capitalization, The more concentrated the shareholding institutions are, and the stock selection preference of institutions to \"take great beauty\" is further strengthened.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of institutional shareholding ratio, the proportion of leading institutions is also significantly higher.</b>Since 2009, the median shareholding ratio of leading institutions has basically remained at a high level of around 80%, while the proportion of non-leading institutions has remained at around 50%.</p><p><b>Third, from the perspective of the overlap between institutional heavyweight stocks and leading U.S. stocks, the increasing overlap means that institutions continue to concentrate on the leading stocks.</b>The coverage of the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 of institutional stock market value to the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 of the entire market market value has basically been maintained at more than 90% in recent years, and around 2000, this ratio is only 50% to 60%, which shows that the vast majority of leading U.S. stocks have been incorporated into institutions.</p><p><b>Fourth, from the perspective of individual stocks, taking FAAMG as an example, the proportion of institutions has increased significantly.</b>As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, the average institutional shareholding accounted for 74.4%, of which Netflix, Facebook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The proportion of institutional shareholdings ranks first, reaching 82.92%, 81.02% and 79.09% respectively. FAAMNG is also among the top 20 institutional holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c240f0ddaf3407cbad6db91899325\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Hold a group with high ROE</b></p><p><b>Looking at the stock selection preferences of U.S. stock institutions from the perspective of heavily held stocks,</b><b>Compared with profit growth, U.S. stock institutions pay more attention to ROE.</b>The ROE level of institutional heavyweight stocks in U.S. stocks is generally high. The ROE of the top 50 heavyweight stocks is as high as 26.1%. The ROE of the top 100, top 300, and top 500 is gradually decreasing, but it is still significantly higher than the ROE level of all U.S. stocks; However, institutions have a relatively low preference for the profit growth rate of Awkwardness stocks, and the median profit growth rate is not declining in an orderly manner. Institutions pay more attention to the certainty of long-term growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2673469a93058fec107780f19a7a1e8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60aed33e9d8933510a5638729d38f13a\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Correspondingly, U.S. stocks with high ROE awkwardness enjoy a valuation premium.</b>From a PE perspective. The median PE of the top 50 Awkwardness stocks of U.S. stock institutions is 30.0, which is significantly higher than the 18.9 of all U.S. stocks, and with the decline of positions, PE valuations also decline in an orderly manner; The same is true from the PB perspective. The median PB of the top 50 heavyweight stocks is 7.2, which is higher than the 2.40 of all US stocks.</p><p><b>3. U.S. stocks: Why did the group begin?</b></p><p><b>The long-term high-quality fundamentals of technology and consumption have been an important driving force for institutions to adhere to in the past ten years.</b>Since the 1990s, the consumer, pharmaceutical, and technology industries in the United States have continued to be in an upward cycle. In the past 20 years, except for the impact of the bursting of the Internet bubble, the ROE levels of industries such as information technology, healthcare, and must-have consumption are basically in the range of 20% to 30%, showing stronger and more stable growth and profitability, while the ROE center of cyclical industries such as finance, energy, and public utilities continues to move downward and fluctuates greatly. Driven by the upward trend of fundamentals and prosperity, technology and consumption leaders have become an inevitable choice for institutions to group together, and with the intensification of differentiation, institutions will become more concentrated and close in their group of technology and consumption.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85979547ada3a9b2aee3eace34233409\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac773e12490572c3c39bc510e807cb28\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Institutional Investors</b><b>The long-term group of leaders in the U.S. stock market is actually a continuous pursuit of profitability certainty and stability.</b>In the medium and long term, the institutionalization of U.S. stocks has brought about a change in the pricing system from valuation-led to profit-led. Institutional investors' shareholding behavior of leading and non-leading companies has also shown obvious ROE-driven characteristics. Leading and non-leading institutions in U.S. stocks The level of differentiation in the shareholding ratio is more consistent with the change between the ROE differentiation levels of the two.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68be567c1f270b1c5d0ca0705ecc90d8\" tg-width=\"492\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb1200ac7032f848476cda4d29a61ad\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the past 40 years, the leading U.S. stock market has maintained a higher ROE and provided longer-term stable returns, becoming the first choice for institutions to group together.</b>In the process of institutional investors' pursuit of profitability certainty, it has become the most \"correct\" choice to increase the allocation of leading U.S. stocks with higher ROE levels. Compared with the median ROE of the top 50, top 100, and top 300 heavyweight stocks of U.S. stocks, the higher the ROE level of individual stocks with heavy positions, and it has basically remained orderly in the past 20 years, and is significantly higher than the median level of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f90bf37b1c2ce807302b6fa4b89380\" tg-width=\"495\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fbd53f34cd1f62b885cb0c826dde25c\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In addition to the pursuit of certainty by institutions, the great development of passive funds in the United States in the past ten years has further strengthened the effect of institutional leadership.</b>The scale of U.S. ETFs has increased from less than 20 billion in 1998 to 5.4 trillion U.S. dollars in 2020, and the scale of stock ETFs has reached 4.2 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for nearly 80%. With the three giants of American ETFs-Pioneer,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>, State Street as an example, the total shareholding ratio of the three companies in the S&P 500 constituent stocks has increased from 5.9% in 1999 to 19.1% in 2020, and institutional funds continue to concentrate on high-quality leaders.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f590abe40e00606c548a0300cf5f66b\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab33b3aa4c354e2a8fa099180c8922e\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Summary</b></p><p><b>1. It is normal for U.S. stock institutions to hold groups, and the right to speak of institutions is constantly increasing, and the overweight of institutional heavy holdings has been maintained for a long time.</b></p><p><b>2. The group of U.S. stock institutions will also loosen to cyclical industries in stages, but in the long run, they will always hold groups for consumption and growth, especially since 2007, they have adhered to information technology and optional consumption.</b></p><p><b>3. Institutions' group pursuit of leading U.S. stocks has never stopped in the past two decades, and has intensified in the past ten years. The number and proportion of leading institutions holding shares are significantly higher than those of non-leading companies.</b></p><p><b>4. Compared with profit growth, U.S. stock institutions pay more attention to ROE, and Awkwardness stocks enjoy valuation premiums.</b></p><p><b>5. The pursuit of profitability certainty and stability is the fundamental driving force behind the group of US stocks. The long-term high-quality fundamental performance of technology and consumption has been dominant for a long time; In the past 40 years, the leading U.S. stock market has maintained a higher ROE and provided longer-term stable returns, becoming the first choice for institutions to group together.</b></p><p><b>6. In addition, the great development of passive funds in the United States has further strengthened institutional grouping.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>1. Institutional shareholding data comes from FACTSET, and there may be statistical errors in third-party data; 2. There may be errors between historical data statistics and actual conditions; 3. The comparative research method has limitations, and the conclusion may have certain deviations.</p>","source":"lsy1601879145223","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks: Twenty years of unity history</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks: Twenty years of unity history\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">国盛策略</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-18 22:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Foreword:</b>Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has shown an extreme differentiation pattern, with institutional groupings becoming more and more fierce, and the strong rise of \"group stocks\", which has triggered the market's fear of high prices. Recently, there has been a correction in \"group stocks\", and investors' worries about \"the leading group is too tight\" and \"the group collapses\" have begun to intensify. So how long can the phenomenon of grouping last? Will the group collapse? How will Baotuan be interpreted in the future? The experience of U.S. stocks in the past 20 years has provided us with reference.</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. U.S. stocks: Institutional groups are the norm</b></p><p><b>It is the norm for U.S. stock institutions to group together, and the right to speak of institutions is constantly increasing.</b>With the development and growth of U.S. stock institutions, the proportion of institutional shareholdings has increased significantly in the past 20 years. At present, the market value of institutional holdings accounts for as much as 70% of the market value of the whole market, becoming the dominant force in the U.S. stock market. As of 2020, stocks with institutional shareholding ratios of more than 80% account for 33%, which was only 2% in 1999; Individual stocks with a shareholding ratio between 50 and 80% account for 25%, which was only 10% in 1999.</p><p><b>The group of U.S. stock institutions continues to deepen, and institutional heavyweight stocks have been overweighted for a long time.</b>If U.S. stocks with institutional shareholdings accounting for more than 80% are regarded as institutional heavyweight stocks, in the past 20 years, institutions' holdings in U.S. stocks have increased from less than 10% to nearly 50%, and the overweight ratio has continued to expand. In 1999, the overweight will reach 5 points, and the overweight will reach 12 points in 2020.</p><p><b>2. U.S. stocks: What do institutions unite?</b></p><p><b>1. Group consumption and growth</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors in U.S. stocks gather together for consumption and growth.</b>The top 100 Awkwardness stocks of institutional investors in the U.S. stock market are concentrated in consumption and growth. The proportion of institutional Awkwardness stocks with consumption and growth styles and the proportion of stock market value are always higher than 50%, which is the main group direction of institutional investors. The group-holding style has not been stable in the past two decades. From 2000 to 2007, institutions increased their positions in financial real estate and cycles in stages. However, since 2007, institutions have re-allocated consumption and technology, and the number of individual stocks and market value The proportion has increased significantly, and the current market value of consumption and growth has exceeded 80%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a40c4ae37bc0cbfae5eb61fb2c9e598\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88dd627c1b879c24bf11ed44da8031a8\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of specific industries, before 2007, institutions loosened their groups to energy and industry, but since 2007, they have adhered to information technology and optional consumption.</b>From 2000 to 2007, among the top 100 institutional holdings, energy, industry, communications and other industries increased their holdings the most, reaching 9.30%, 1.96% and 0.78% respectively; Since 2007, the information technology, optional consumption and pharmaceutical industries have regained substantial increases in their holdings, with increases in holdings reaching 13.90%, 11.19% and 1.22% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04030f35e375b711e021c4d037e798f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6dbfda9b73bba7360778a554ce60c7\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Baotuan leader</b></p><p><b>The pursuit of leaders by U.S. stock institutions has never stopped in the past 20 years, and has intensified since 2009.</b></p><p><b>First, judging from the number of shareholding institutions, the number of leading shareholding institutions is far ahead.</b>The top 20% of U.S. stocks in circulating market value represent leaders, and the bottom 80% in circulating market value represent non-leaders. The median number of institutions holding leaders has increased from 230 20 years ago to more than 700, while institutions holding non-leaders The median number level is still only about 100.</p><p><b>Further grouped according to the circulating market value, the number of shares held by leading institutions is dominant.</b>Grouping U.S. stocks according to circulating market capitalization, the gap in the number of shareholding institutions with circulating market capitalization greater than 300 billion U.S. dollars, 200-300 billion U.S. dollars, 100-200 billion U.S. dollars, and 50-100 billion U.S. dollars has been widening in the past 10 years. The larger the market capitalization, The more concentrated the shareholding institutions are, and the stock selection preference of institutions to \"take great beauty\" is further strengthened.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of institutional shareholding ratio, the proportion of leading institutions is also significantly higher.</b>Since 2009, the median shareholding ratio of leading institutions has basically remained at a high level of around 80%, while the proportion of non-leading institutions has remained at around 50%.</p><p><b>Third, from the perspective of the overlap between institutional heavyweight stocks and leading U.S. stocks, the increasing overlap means that institutions continue to concentrate on the leading stocks.</b>The coverage of the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 of institutional stock market value to the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 of the entire market market value has basically been maintained at more than 90% in recent years, and around 2000, this ratio is only 50% to 60%, which shows that the vast majority of leading U.S. stocks have been incorporated into institutions.</p><p><b>Fourth, from the perspective of individual stocks, taking FAAMG as an example, the proportion of institutions has increased significantly.</b>As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, the average institutional shareholding accounted for 74.4%, of which Netflix, Facebook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The proportion of institutional shareholdings ranks first, reaching 82.92%, 81.02% and 79.09% respectively. FAAMNG is also among the top 20 institutional holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c240f0ddaf3407cbad6db91899325\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Hold a group with high ROE</b></p><p><b>Looking at the stock selection preferences of U.S. stock institutions from the perspective of heavily held stocks,</b><b>Compared with profit growth, U.S. stock institutions pay more attention to ROE.</b>The ROE level of institutional heavyweight stocks in U.S. stocks is generally high. The ROE of the top 50 heavyweight stocks is as high as 26.1%. The ROE of the top 100, top 300, and top 500 is gradually decreasing, but it is still significantly higher than the ROE level of all U.S. stocks; However, institutions have a relatively low preference for the profit growth rate of Awkwardness stocks, and the median profit growth rate is not declining in an orderly manner. Institutions pay more attention to the certainty of long-term growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2673469a93058fec107780f19a7a1e8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60aed33e9d8933510a5638729d38f13a\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Correspondingly, U.S. stocks with high ROE awkwardness enjoy a valuation premium.</b>From a PE perspective. The median PE of the top 50 Awkwardness stocks of U.S. stock institutions is 30.0, which is significantly higher than the 18.9 of all U.S. stocks, and with the decline of positions, PE valuations also decline in an orderly manner; The same is true from the PB perspective. The median PB of the top 50 heavyweight stocks is 7.2, which is higher than the 2.40 of all US stocks.</p><p><b>3. U.S. stocks: Why did the group begin?</b></p><p><b>The long-term high-quality fundamentals of technology and consumption have been an important driving force for institutions to adhere to in the past ten years.</b>Since the 1990s, the consumer, pharmaceutical, and technology industries in the United States have continued to be in an upward cycle. In the past 20 years, except for the impact of the bursting of the Internet bubble, the ROE levels of industries such as information technology, healthcare, and must-have consumption are basically in the range of 20% to 30%, showing stronger and more stable growth and profitability, while the ROE center of cyclical industries such as finance, energy, and public utilities continues to move downward and fluctuates greatly. Driven by the upward trend of fundamentals and prosperity, technology and consumption leaders have become an inevitable choice for institutions to group together, and with the intensification of differentiation, institutions will become more concentrated and close in their group of technology and consumption.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85979547ada3a9b2aee3eace34233409\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac773e12490572c3c39bc510e807cb28\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Institutional Investors</b><b>The long-term group of leaders in the U.S. stock market is actually a continuous pursuit of profitability certainty and stability.</b>In the medium and long term, the institutionalization of U.S. stocks has brought about a change in the pricing system from valuation-led to profit-led. Institutional investors' shareholding behavior of leading and non-leading companies has also shown obvious ROE-driven characteristics. Leading and non-leading institutions in U.S. stocks The level of differentiation in the shareholding ratio is more consistent with the change between the ROE differentiation levels of the two.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68be567c1f270b1c5d0ca0705ecc90d8\" tg-width=\"492\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb1200ac7032f848476cda4d29a61ad\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the past 40 years, the leading U.S. stock market has maintained a higher ROE and provided longer-term stable returns, becoming the first choice for institutions to group together.</b>In the process of institutional investors' pursuit of profitability certainty, it has become the most \"correct\" choice to increase the allocation of leading U.S. stocks with higher ROE levels. Compared with the median ROE of the top 50, top 100, and top 300 heavyweight stocks of U.S. stocks, the higher the ROE level of individual stocks with heavy positions, and it has basically remained orderly in the past 20 years, and is significantly higher than the median level of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f90bf37b1c2ce807302b6fa4b89380\" tg-width=\"495\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fbd53f34cd1f62b885cb0c826dde25c\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In addition to the pursuit of certainty by institutions, the great development of passive funds in the United States in the past ten years has further strengthened the effect of institutional leadership.</b>The scale of U.S. ETFs has increased from less than 20 billion in 1998 to 5.4 trillion U.S. dollars in 2020, and the scale of stock ETFs has reached 4.2 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for nearly 80%. With the three giants of American ETFs-Pioneer,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>, State Street as an example, the total shareholding ratio of the three companies in the S&P 500 constituent stocks has increased from 5.9% in 1999 to 19.1% in 2020, and institutional funds continue to concentrate on high-quality leaders.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f590abe40e00606c548a0300cf5f66b\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab33b3aa4c354e2a8fa099180c8922e\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Summary</b></p><p><b>1. It is normal for U.S. stock institutions to hold groups, and the right to speak of institutions is constantly increasing, and the overweight of institutional heavy holdings has been maintained for a long time.</b></p><p><b>2. The group of U.S. stock institutions will also loosen to cyclical industries in stages, but in the long run, they will always hold groups for consumption and growth, especially since 2007, they have adhered to information technology and optional consumption.</b></p><p><b>3. Institutions' group pursuit of leading U.S. stocks has never stopped in the past two decades, and has intensified in the past ten years. The number and proportion of leading institutions holding shares are significantly higher than those of non-leading companies.</b></p><p><b>4. Compared with profit growth, U.S. stock institutions pay more attention to ROE, and Awkwardness stocks enjoy valuation premiums.</b></p><p><b>5. The pursuit of profitability certainty and stability is the fundamental driving force behind the group of US stocks. The long-term high-quality fundamental performance of technology and consumption has been dominant for a long time; In the past 40 years, the leading U.S. stock market has maintained a higher ROE and provided longer-term stable returns, becoming the first choice for institutions to group together.</b></p><p><b>6. In addition, the great development of passive funds in the United States has further strengthened institutional grouping.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>1. Institutional shareholding data comes from FACTSET, and there may be statistical errors in third-party data; 2. There may be errors between historical data statistics and actual conditions; 3. The comparative research method has limitations, and the conclusion may have certain deviations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ae5bBVZXVqZInDfKPsT9ag\">国盛策略</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ae5bBVZXVqZInDfKPsT9ag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152855899","content_text":"前言：年初以来，A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，机构抱团愈演愈烈，“抱团股”强势上涨，引发了市场畏高情绪升温。近期“抱团股”出现回调，投资者对于“龙头抱团过紧”，“抱团瓦解”的担忧开始加剧。那么抱团现象能持续多久？抱团是否会就此瓦解？抱团未来又将如何演绎？过去20年美股的经验给我们提供了借鉴。\n报告正文\n一、美股：机构抱团是常态\n美股机构抱团是常态，机构话语权不断增强。随着美股机构发展壮大，机构持股占比在过去20年中大幅增长，当前机构持股市值占全市场流通市值的比重也已高达70%，成为美股市场的主导力量。截至2020年，机构持股比例在80%以上的个股占33%，这一比例在1999年仅为2%；持股比例位于50~80%之间的个股占比25%，这一比例在1999年仅为10%。\n美股机构抱团不断加深，机构重仓股长期超配。若以机构持股占比高于80%的美股作为机构重仓股，在过去20年中，机构对美股重仓股的持仓由不足10%增加至近50%，且超配比例不断扩大，1999年超配5个点、2020年超配达到12个点。\n二、美股：机构抱团什么？\n1、抱团消费与成长\n美股机构投资者抱团消费与成长。美股机构投资者前100大重仓股集中在消费与成长，消费与成长风格的机构重仓股数量占比与持股市值占比始终高于50%，是机构投资者主要的抱团方向。抱团风格在过去二十年中并非稳定不变，2000年至2007年，机构阶段性加仓金融地产和周期，但自2007年至今，机构则重新增配消费与科技，且个股数量与市值占比大幅上升，目前消费与成长的市值占比已超八成。\n\n从具体行业看，2007年前机构抱团向能源与工业松动，而2007年以来坚守信息技术与可选消费。2000年至2007年，机构前100大重仓股中能源、工业、通信等行业增持幅度居前，分别达9.30%、1.96%和0.78%；而自2007年以来，信息技术、可选消费与医药行业重获大幅增持，增持比例分别达13.90%、11.19%和1.22%。\n\n2、抱团龙头\n美股机构对龙头的追逐在过去20年中从未止步，2009年以来愈演愈烈。\n一是从持股机构数量来看，龙头的持股机构数量遥遥领先。以流通市值前20%的美股代表龙头，流通市值后80%代表非龙头，持有龙头的机构数量中位数由20年前的230家增长至700余家，而持有非龙头的机构数量中位数水平目前仍仅为100家左右。\n进一步按流通市值分组，龙头的机构持股数量占优。将美股按流通市值分组，流通市值大于3000亿美元、2000-3000亿美元、1000-2000亿美元与500-1000亿美元之间的持股机构数量差距在过去10年中不断扩大，市值越大，持股机构越集中，机构“以大为美”的选股偏好进一步强化。\n二是从机构持股占比来看，龙头的机构占比也明显更高。自2009年以来龙头的机构持股占比的中位数基本维持在80%左右的高位，而非龙头机构占比维持在50%上下。\n三是从机构重仓股与美股龙头重合度来看，重合度不断提升意味着机构持续向龙头集中。机构持股市值前50、前100、前300与前500对全市场流通市值前50、前100、前300与前500的覆盖度近年来已基本维持在90%以上，而2000年前后这个比例仅有50%~60%，这说明美股绝大多数龙头已经纳入机构麾下。\n四是从个股角度，以FAAMG为例，机构占比明显提升。截至2020年四季度末，平均机构持股占比达74.4%，其中奈飞、脸书、谷歌的机构持股占比居前，分别达82.92%、81.02%和79.09%，FAAMNG也均位于机构前20大重仓股之中。\n\n3、抱团高ROE\n从重仓股看美股机构的选股偏好，相比于利润增速，美股机构更注重ROE。美股机构重仓股的ROE水平普遍较高，前50大重仓股的ROE高达26.1%，前100、前300、前500的ROE逐渐降低，但仍显著高于全部美股的ROE水平；而机构对于重仓股利润增速的偏好相对较低，利润增速中位数并非有序回落，机构更加注重长期增长的确定性。\n\n相应地，美股高ROE重仓股享有估值溢价。从PE角度。美股机构前50大重仓股的PE中位数为30.0，明显高于全部美股的18.9，且随着持仓仓位的下降，PE估值也有序下降；PB角度亦是如此，前50大重仓股PB中位数为7.2，高于全部美股的2.40。\n三、美股：抱团因何而起？\n科技与消费长期优质的基本面，是近十年机构坚守的重要驱动。90年代以来，美国消费、医药、科技行业持续处于景气上行周期。在过去20年中，除受互联网泡沫破裂的影响外，信息技术、医疗保健、必选消费等行业的ROE水平基本处于20%至30%区间，展现出更强且更稳定的成长性与盈利能力，而金融、能源、公用事业等周期类行业的ROE中枢持续下移，且波动较大。在基本面与景气度上行的驱动下，科技和消费龙头也就成为了机构抱团的必然选择，且随着分化的加剧，机构对于科技和消费的抱团将更加集中和紧密。\n\n机构投资者长期抱团美股龙头实际上也是对盈利确定性和稳定性的持续追求。中长期来看，美股机构化带来定价体系由估值主导向盈利主导变迁，机构投资者对龙头与非龙头的持股行为也呈现出较为明显的ROE驱动的特征，美股龙头与非龙头机构持股占比的分化水平与二者ROE分化水平之间的变动较为一致。\n\n近40年美股龙头保持更高的ROE，提供更加长期的稳定回报，成为机构的抱团首选。机构投资者在追求盈利确定性的过程中，增配ROE水平更高的美股龙头成为最“正确”的选择，对比美股机构前50、前100、前300重仓股的ROE中位数，呈现出越重仓的个股，ROE水平越高的特点，并在过去20年中基本维持有序，且大幅高于全市场中位数水平。\n\n除机构对确定性的追求外，近十年美国被动型基金大发展，也进一步强化了机构抱团龙头的效果。美国ETF规模由1998年的不足200亿增长至2020年的5.4万亿美元，股票型ETF的规模达4.2万亿美元，占比近八成。以美国ETF三巨头——先锋、贝莱德、道富为例，三家在标普500成分股的总持股占比由1999年的5.9%上升至2020年的19.1%，机构资金持续向优质龙头集中。\n\n四、总结\n1、美股机构抱团是常态，机构话语权不断增强，对机构重仓股长期维持超配。\n2、美股机构抱团也会阶段性向周期行业松动，但长期来看始终抱团消费与成长，尤其是2007年以来坚守信息技术与可选消费。\n3、机构对美股龙头的抱团追逐在过去二十年中从未止步，且近十年愈演愈烈，龙头的持股机构数量与持股占比均显著高于非龙头。\n4、相比于利润增速，美股机构更注重ROE，且重仓股享受估值溢价。\n5、对盈利确定性和稳定性的追求是美股抱团的根本驱动。科技和消费长期优质的基本面表现长期占优；近40年美股龙头保持更高的ROE，提供更加长期的稳定回报，成为机构的抱团首选。\n6、除此之外，美国被动型基金大发展，也进一步强化了机构抱团。\n风险提示\n1、机构持股数据来自FACTSET，第三方数据可能存在统计误差；2、历史数据统计与实际情况可能存在误差；3、对比研究方法存在局限性，结论或存在一定偏差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":348868975,"gmtCreate":1617916901697,"gmtModify":1704704700976,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574393622022945","authorIdStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. Originally, it was a * * company, and speculation was useless.","text":"If you don't pull it tonight, you will cut the meat and stop the loss. If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. Originally, it was a * * company, and speculation was useless.","html":"If you don't pull it tonight, you will cut the meat and stop the loss. If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. 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Corp(SHIP)$?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366989563","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384259858,"gmtCreate":1613658158374,"gmtModify":1704883314612,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574393622022945","authorIdStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384259858","repostId":"1152855899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152855899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613657987,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152855899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-18 22:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks: Twenty years of unity history","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152855899","media":"国盛策略","summary":"前言：年初以来，A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，机构抱团愈演愈烈，“抱团股”强势上涨，引发了市场畏高情绪升温。近期“抱团股”出现回调，投资者对于“龙头抱团过紧”，“抱团瓦解”的担忧开始加剧。那么抱团现象","content":"<p><b>Foreword:</b>Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has shown an extreme differentiation pattern, with institutional groupings becoming more and more fierce, and the strong rise of \"group stocks\", which has triggered the market's fear of high prices. Recently, there has been a correction in \"group stocks\", and investors' worries about \"the leading group is too tight\" and \"the group collapses\" have begun to intensify. So how long can the phenomenon of grouping last? Will the group collapse? How will Baotuan be interpreted in the future? The experience of U.S. stocks in the past 20 years has provided us with reference.</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. U.S. stocks: Institutional groups are the norm</b></p><p><b>It is the norm for U.S. stock institutions to group together, and the right to speak of institutions is constantly increasing.</b>With the development and growth of U.S. stock institutions, the proportion of institutional shareholdings has increased significantly in the past 20 years. At present, the market value of institutional holdings accounts for as much as 70% of the market value of the whole market, becoming the dominant force in the U.S. stock market. As of 2020, stocks with institutional shareholding ratios of more than 80% account for 33%, which was only 2% in 1999; Individual stocks with a shareholding ratio between 50 and 80% account for 25%, which was only 10% in 1999.</p><p><b>The group of U.S. stock institutions continues to deepen, and institutional heavyweight stocks have been overweighted for a long time.</b>If U.S. stocks with institutional shareholdings accounting for more than 80% are regarded as institutional heavyweight stocks, in the past 20 years, institutions' holdings in U.S. stocks have increased from less than 10% to nearly 50%, and the overweight ratio has continued to expand. In 1999, the overweight will reach 5 points, and the overweight will reach 12 points in 2020.</p><p><b>2. U.S. stocks: What do institutions unite?</b></p><p><b>1. Group consumption and growth</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors in U.S. stocks gather together for consumption and growth.</b>The top 100 Awkwardness stocks of institutional investors in the U.S. stock market are concentrated in consumption and growth. The proportion of institutional Awkwardness stocks with consumption and growth styles and the proportion of stock market value are always higher than 50%, which is the main group direction of institutional investors. The group-holding style has not been stable in the past two decades. From 2000 to 2007, institutions increased their positions in financial real estate and cycles in stages. However, since 2007, institutions have re-allocated consumption and technology, and the number of individual stocks and market value The proportion has increased significantly, and the current market value of consumption and growth has exceeded 80%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a40c4ae37bc0cbfae5eb61fb2c9e598\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88dd627c1b879c24bf11ed44da8031a8\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of specific industries, before 2007, institutions loosened their groups to energy and industry, but since 2007, they have adhered to information technology and optional consumption.</b>From 2000 to 2007, among the top 100 institutional holdings, energy, industry, communications and other industries increased their holdings the most, reaching 9.30%, 1.96% and 0.78% respectively; Since 2007, the information technology, optional consumption and pharmaceutical industries have regained substantial increases in their holdings, with increases in holdings reaching 13.90%, 11.19% and 1.22% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04030f35e375b711e021c4d037e798f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6dbfda9b73bba7360778a554ce60c7\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Baotuan leader</b></p><p><b>The pursuit of leaders by U.S. stock institutions has never stopped in the past 20 years, and has intensified since 2009.</b></p><p><b>First, judging from the number of shareholding institutions, the number of leading shareholding institutions is far ahead.</b>The top 20% of U.S. stocks in circulating market value represent leaders, and the bottom 80% in circulating market value represent non-leaders. The median number of institutions holding leaders has increased from 230 20 years ago to more than 700, while institutions holding non-leaders The median number level is still only about 100.</p><p><b>Further grouped according to the circulating market value, the number of shares held by leading institutions is dominant.</b>Grouping U.S. stocks according to circulating market capitalization, the gap in the number of shareholding institutions with circulating market capitalization greater than 300 billion U.S. dollars, 200-300 billion U.S. dollars, 100-200 billion U.S. dollars, and 50-100 billion U.S. dollars has been widening in the past 10 years. The larger the market capitalization, The more concentrated the shareholding institutions are, and the stock selection preference of institutions to \"take great beauty\" is further strengthened.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of institutional shareholding ratio, the proportion of leading institutions is also significantly higher.</b>Since 2009, the median shareholding ratio of leading institutions has basically remained at a high level of around 80%, while the proportion of non-leading institutions has remained at around 50%.</p><p><b>Third, from the perspective of the overlap between institutional heavyweight stocks and leading U.S. stocks, the increasing overlap means that institutions continue to concentrate on the leading stocks.</b>The coverage of the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 of institutional stock market value to the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 of the entire market market value has basically been maintained at more than 90% in recent years, and around 2000, this ratio is only 50% to 60%, which shows that the vast majority of leading U.S. stocks have been incorporated into institutions.</p><p><b>Fourth, from the perspective of individual stocks, taking FAAMG as an example, the proportion of institutions has increased significantly.</b>As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, the average institutional shareholding accounted for 74.4%, of which Netflix, Facebook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The proportion of institutional shareholdings ranks first, reaching 82.92%, 81.02% and 79.09% respectively. FAAMNG is also among the top 20 institutional holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c240f0ddaf3407cbad6db91899325\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Hold a group with high ROE</b></p><p><b>Looking at the stock selection preferences of U.S. stock institutions from the perspective of heavily held stocks,</b><b>Compared with profit growth, U.S. stock institutions pay more attention to ROE.</b>The ROE level of institutional heavyweight stocks in U.S. stocks is generally high. The ROE of the top 50 heavyweight stocks is as high as 26.1%. The ROE of the top 100, top 300, and top 500 is gradually decreasing, but it is still significantly higher than the ROE level of all U.S. stocks; However, institutions have a relatively low preference for the profit growth rate of Awkwardness stocks, and the median profit growth rate is not declining in an orderly manner. Institutions pay more attention to the certainty of long-term growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2673469a93058fec107780f19a7a1e8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60aed33e9d8933510a5638729d38f13a\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Correspondingly, U.S. stocks with high ROE awkwardness enjoy a valuation premium.</b>From a PE perspective. The median PE of the top 50 Awkwardness stocks of U.S. stock institutions is 30.0, which is significantly higher than the 18.9 of all U.S. stocks, and with the decline of positions, PE valuations also decline in an orderly manner; The same is true from the PB perspective. The median PB of the top 50 heavyweight stocks is 7.2, which is higher than the 2.40 of all US stocks.</p><p><b>3. U.S. stocks: Why did the group begin?</b></p><p><b>The long-term high-quality fundamentals of technology and consumption have been an important driving force for institutions to adhere to in the past ten years.</b>Since the 1990s, the consumer, pharmaceutical, and technology industries in the United States have continued to be in an upward cycle. In the past 20 years, except for the impact of the bursting of the Internet bubble, the ROE levels of industries such as information technology, healthcare, and must-have consumption are basically in the range of 20% to 30%, showing stronger and more stable growth and profitability, while the ROE center of cyclical industries such as finance, energy, and public utilities continues to move downward and fluctuates greatly. Driven by the upward trend of fundamentals and prosperity, technology and consumption leaders have become an inevitable choice for institutions to group together, and with the intensification of differentiation, institutions will become more concentrated and close in their group of technology and consumption.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85979547ada3a9b2aee3eace34233409\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac773e12490572c3c39bc510e807cb28\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Institutional Investors</b><b>The long-term group of leaders in the U.S. stock market is actually a continuous pursuit of profitability certainty and stability.</b>In the medium and long term, the institutionalization of U.S. stocks has brought about a change in the pricing system from valuation-led to profit-led. Institutional investors' shareholding behavior of leading and non-leading companies has also shown obvious ROE-driven characteristics. Leading and non-leading institutions in U.S. stocks The level of differentiation in the shareholding ratio is more consistent with the change between the ROE differentiation levels of the two.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68be567c1f270b1c5d0ca0705ecc90d8\" tg-width=\"492\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb1200ac7032f848476cda4d29a61ad\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the past 40 years, the leading U.S. stock market has maintained a higher ROE and provided longer-term stable returns, becoming the first choice for institutions to group together.</b>In the process of institutional investors' pursuit of profitability certainty, it has become the most \"correct\" choice to increase the allocation of leading U.S. stocks with higher ROE levels. Compared with the median ROE of the top 50, top 100, and top 300 heavyweight stocks of U.S. stocks, the higher the ROE level of individual stocks with heavy positions, and it has basically remained orderly in the past 20 years, and is significantly higher than the median level of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f90bf37b1c2ce807302b6fa4b89380\" tg-width=\"495\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fbd53f34cd1f62b885cb0c826dde25c\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In addition to the pursuit of certainty by institutions, the great development of passive funds in the United States in the past ten years has further strengthened the effect of institutional leadership.</b>The scale of U.S. ETFs has increased from less than 20 billion in 1998 to 5.4 trillion U.S. dollars in 2020, and the scale of stock ETFs has reached 4.2 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for nearly 80%. With the three giants of American ETFs-Pioneer,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>, State Street as an example, the total shareholding ratio of the three companies in the S&P 500 constituent stocks has increased from 5.9% in 1999 to 19.1% in 2020, and institutional funds continue to concentrate on high-quality leaders.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f590abe40e00606c548a0300cf5f66b\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab33b3aa4c354e2a8fa099180c8922e\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Summary</b></p><p><b>1. It is normal for U.S. stock institutions to hold groups, and the right to speak of institutions is constantly increasing, and the overweight of institutional heavy holdings has been maintained for a long time.</b></p><p><b>2. The group of U.S. stock institutions will also loosen to cyclical industries in stages, but in the long run, they will always hold groups for consumption and growth, especially since 2007, they have adhered to information technology and optional consumption.</b></p><p><b>3. Institutions' group pursuit of leading U.S. stocks has never stopped in the past two decades, and has intensified in the past ten years. The number and proportion of leading institutions holding shares are significantly higher than those of non-leading companies.</b></p><p><b>4. Compared with profit growth, U.S. stock institutions pay more attention to ROE, and Awkwardness stocks enjoy valuation premiums.</b></p><p><b>5. The pursuit of profitability certainty and stability is the fundamental driving force behind the group of US stocks. The long-term high-quality fundamental performance of technology and consumption has been dominant for a long time; In the past 40 years, the leading U.S. stock market has maintained a higher ROE and provided longer-term stable returns, becoming the first choice for institutions to group together.</b></p><p><b>6. In addition, the great development of passive funds in the United States has further strengthened institutional grouping.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>1. Institutional shareholding data comes from FACTSET, and there may be statistical errors in third-party data; 2. There may be errors between historical data statistics and actual conditions; 3. The comparative research method has limitations, and the conclusion may have certain deviations.</p>","source":"lsy1601879145223","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks: Twenty years of unity history</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks: Twenty years of unity history\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">国盛策略</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-18 22:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Foreword:</b>Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has shown an extreme differentiation pattern, with institutional groupings becoming more and more fierce, and the strong rise of \"group stocks\", which has triggered the market's fear of high prices. Recently, there has been a correction in \"group stocks\", and investors' worries about \"the leading group is too tight\" and \"the group collapses\" have begun to intensify. So how long can the phenomenon of grouping last? Will the group collapse? How will Baotuan be interpreted in the future? The experience of U.S. stocks in the past 20 years has provided us with reference.</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. U.S. stocks: Institutional groups are the norm</b></p><p><b>It is the norm for U.S. stock institutions to group together, and the right to speak of institutions is constantly increasing.</b>With the development and growth of U.S. stock institutions, the proportion of institutional shareholdings has increased significantly in the past 20 years. At present, the market value of institutional holdings accounts for as much as 70% of the market value of the whole market, becoming the dominant force in the U.S. stock market. As of 2020, stocks with institutional shareholding ratios of more than 80% account for 33%, which was only 2% in 1999; Individual stocks with a shareholding ratio between 50 and 80% account for 25%, which was only 10% in 1999.</p><p><b>The group of U.S. stock institutions continues to deepen, and institutional heavyweight stocks have been overweighted for a long time.</b>If U.S. stocks with institutional shareholdings accounting for more than 80% are regarded as institutional heavyweight stocks, in the past 20 years, institutions' holdings in U.S. stocks have increased from less than 10% to nearly 50%, and the overweight ratio has continued to expand. In 1999, the overweight will reach 5 points, and the overweight will reach 12 points in 2020.</p><p><b>2. U.S. stocks: What do institutions unite?</b></p><p><b>1. Group consumption and growth</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors in U.S. stocks gather together for consumption and growth.</b>The top 100 Awkwardness stocks of institutional investors in the U.S. stock market are concentrated in consumption and growth. The proportion of institutional Awkwardness stocks with consumption and growth styles and the proportion of stock market value are always higher than 50%, which is the main group direction of institutional investors. The group-holding style has not been stable in the past two decades. From 2000 to 2007, institutions increased their positions in financial real estate and cycles in stages. However, since 2007, institutions have re-allocated consumption and technology, and the number of individual stocks and market value The proportion has increased significantly, and the current market value of consumption and growth has exceeded 80%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a40c4ae37bc0cbfae5eb61fb2c9e598\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88dd627c1b879c24bf11ed44da8031a8\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of specific industries, before 2007, institutions loosened their groups to energy and industry, but since 2007, they have adhered to information technology and optional consumption.</b>From 2000 to 2007, among the top 100 institutional holdings, energy, industry, communications and other industries increased their holdings the most, reaching 9.30%, 1.96% and 0.78% respectively; Since 2007, the information technology, optional consumption and pharmaceutical industries have regained substantial increases in their holdings, with increases in holdings reaching 13.90%, 11.19% and 1.22% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04030f35e375b711e021c4d037e798f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6dbfda9b73bba7360778a554ce60c7\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Baotuan leader</b></p><p><b>The pursuit of leaders by U.S. stock institutions has never stopped in the past 20 years, and has intensified since 2009.</b></p><p><b>First, judging from the number of shareholding institutions, the number of leading shareholding institutions is far ahead.</b>The top 20% of U.S. stocks in circulating market value represent leaders, and the bottom 80% in circulating market value represent non-leaders. The median number of institutions holding leaders has increased from 230 20 years ago to more than 700, while institutions holding non-leaders The median number level is still only about 100.</p><p><b>Further grouped according to the circulating market value, the number of shares held by leading institutions is dominant.</b>Grouping U.S. stocks according to circulating market capitalization, the gap in the number of shareholding institutions with circulating market capitalization greater than 300 billion U.S. dollars, 200-300 billion U.S. dollars, 100-200 billion U.S. dollars, and 50-100 billion U.S. dollars has been widening in the past 10 years. The larger the market capitalization, The more concentrated the shareholding institutions are, and the stock selection preference of institutions to \"take great beauty\" is further strengthened.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of institutional shareholding ratio, the proportion of leading institutions is also significantly higher.</b>Since 2009, the median shareholding ratio of leading institutions has basically remained at a high level of around 80%, while the proportion of non-leading institutions has remained at around 50%.</p><p><b>Third, from the perspective of the overlap between institutional heavyweight stocks and leading U.S. stocks, the increasing overlap means that institutions continue to concentrate on the leading stocks.</b>The coverage of the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 of institutional stock market value to the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 of the entire market market value has basically been maintained at more than 90% in recent years, and around 2000, this ratio is only 50% to 60%, which shows that the vast majority of leading U.S. stocks have been incorporated into institutions.</p><p><b>Fourth, from the perspective of individual stocks, taking FAAMG as an example, the proportion of institutions has increased significantly.</b>As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, the average institutional shareholding accounted for 74.4%, of which Netflix, Facebook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The proportion of institutional shareholdings ranks first, reaching 82.92%, 81.02% and 79.09% respectively. FAAMNG is also among the top 20 institutional holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c240f0ddaf3407cbad6db91899325\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Hold a group with high ROE</b></p><p><b>Looking at the stock selection preferences of U.S. stock institutions from the perspective of heavily held stocks,</b><b>Compared with profit growth, U.S. stock institutions pay more attention to ROE.</b>The ROE level of institutional heavyweight stocks in U.S. stocks is generally high. The ROE of the top 50 heavyweight stocks is as high as 26.1%. The ROE of the top 100, top 300, and top 500 is gradually decreasing, but it is still significantly higher than the ROE level of all U.S. stocks; However, institutions have a relatively low preference for the profit growth rate of Awkwardness stocks, and the median profit growth rate is not declining in an orderly manner. Institutions pay more attention to the certainty of long-term growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2673469a93058fec107780f19a7a1e8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60aed33e9d8933510a5638729d38f13a\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Correspondingly, U.S. stocks with high ROE awkwardness enjoy a valuation premium.</b>From a PE perspective. The median PE of the top 50 Awkwardness stocks of U.S. stock institutions is 30.0, which is significantly higher than the 18.9 of all U.S. stocks, and with the decline of positions, PE valuations also decline in an orderly manner; The same is true from the PB perspective. The median PB of the top 50 heavyweight stocks is 7.2, which is higher than the 2.40 of all US stocks.</p><p><b>3. U.S. stocks: Why did the group begin?</b></p><p><b>The long-term high-quality fundamentals of technology and consumption have been an important driving force for institutions to adhere to in the past ten years.</b>Since the 1990s, the consumer, pharmaceutical, and technology industries in the United States have continued to be in an upward cycle. In the past 20 years, except for the impact of the bursting of the Internet bubble, the ROE levels of industries such as information technology, healthcare, and must-have consumption are basically in the range of 20% to 30%, showing stronger and more stable growth and profitability, while the ROE center of cyclical industries such as finance, energy, and public utilities continues to move downward and fluctuates greatly. Driven by the upward trend of fundamentals and prosperity, technology and consumption leaders have become an inevitable choice for institutions to group together, and with the intensification of differentiation, institutions will become more concentrated and close in their group of technology and consumption.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85979547ada3a9b2aee3eace34233409\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac773e12490572c3c39bc510e807cb28\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Institutional Investors</b><b>The long-term group of leaders in the U.S. stock market is actually a continuous pursuit of profitability certainty and stability.</b>In the medium and long term, the institutionalization of U.S. stocks has brought about a change in the pricing system from valuation-led to profit-led. Institutional investors' shareholding behavior of leading and non-leading companies has also shown obvious ROE-driven characteristics. Leading and non-leading institutions in U.S. stocks The level of differentiation in the shareholding ratio is more consistent with the change between the ROE differentiation levels of the two.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68be567c1f270b1c5d0ca0705ecc90d8\" tg-width=\"492\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb1200ac7032f848476cda4d29a61ad\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the past 40 years, the leading U.S. stock market has maintained a higher ROE and provided longer-term stable returns, becoming the first choice for institutions to group together.</b>In the process of institutional investors' pursuit of profitability certainty, it has become the most \"correct\" choice to increase the allocation of leading U.S. stocks with higher ROE levels. Compared with the median ROE of the top 50, top 100, and top 300 heavyweight stocks of U.S. stocks, the higher the ROE level of individual stocks with heavy positions, and it has basically remained orderly in the past 20 years, and is significantly higher than the median level of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f90bf37b1c2ce807302b6fa4b89380\" tg-width=\"495\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fbd53f34cd1f62b885cb0c826dde25c\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In addition to the pursuit of certainty by institutions, the great development of passive funds in the United States in the past ten years has further strengthened the effect of institutional leadership.</b>The scale of U.S. ETFs has increased from less than 20 billion in 1998 to 5.4 trillion U.S. dollars in 2020, and the scale of stock ETFs has reached 4.2 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for nearly 80%. With the three giants of American ETFs-Pioneer,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>, State Street as an example, the total shareholding ratio of the three companies in the S&P 500 constituent stocks has increased from 5.9% in 1999 to 19.1% in 2020, and institutional funds continue to concentrate on high-quality leaders.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f590abe40e00606c548a0300cf5f66b\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab33b3aa4c354e2a8fa099180c8922e\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Summary</b></p><p><b>1. It is normal for U.S. stock institutions to hold groups, and the right to speak of institutions is constantly increasing, and the overweight of institutional heavy holdings has been maintained for a long time.</b></p><p><b>2. The group of U.S. stock institutions will also loosen to cyclical industries in stages, but in the long run, they will always hold groups for consumption and growth, especially since 2007, they have adhered to information technology and optional consumption.</b></p><p><b>3. Institutions' group pursuit of leading U.S. stocks has never stopped in the past two decades, and has intensified in the past ten years. The number and proportion of leading institutions holding shares are significantly higher than those of non-leading companies.</b></p><p><b>4. Compared with profit growth, U.S. stock institutions pay more attention to ROE, and Awkwardness stocks enjoy valuation premiums.</b></p><p><b>5. The pursuit of profitability certainty and stability is the fundamental driving force behind the group of US stocks. The long-term high-quality fundamental performance of technology and consumption has been dominant for a long time; In the past 40 years, the leading U.S. stock market has maintained a higher ROE and provided longer-term stable returns, becoming the first choice for institutions to group together.</b></p><p><b>6. In addition, the great development of passive funds in the United States has further strengthened institutional grouping.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>1. Institutional shareholding data comes from FACTSET, and there may be statistical errors in third-party data; 2. There may be errors between historical data statistics and actual conditions; 3. The comparative research method has limitations, and the conclusion may have certain deviations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ae5bBVZXVqZInDfKPsT9ag\">国盛策略</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ae5bBVZXVqZInDfKPsT9ag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152855899","content_text":"前言：年初以来，A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，机构抱团愈演愈烈，“抱团股”强势上涨，引发了市场畏高情绪升温。近期“抱团股”出现回调，投资者对于“龙头抱团过紧”，“抱团瓦解”的担忧开始加剧。那么抱团现象能持续多久？抱团是否会就此瓦解？抱团未来又将如何演绎？过去20年美股的经验给我们提供了借鉴。\n报告正文\n一、美股：机构抱团是常态\n美股机构抱团是常态，机构话语权不断增强。随着美股机构发展壮大，机构持股占比在过去20年中大幅增长，当前机构持股市值占全市场流通市值的比重也已高达70%，成为美股市场的主导力量。截至2020年，机构持股比例在80%以上的个股占33%，这一比例在1999年仅为2%；持股比例位于50~80%之间的个股占比25%，这一比例在1999年仅为10%。\n美股机构抱团不断加深，机构重仓股长期超配。若以机构持股占比高于80%的美股作为机构重仓股，在过去20年中，机构对美股重仓股的持仓由不足10%增加至近50%，且超配比例不断扩大，1999年超配5个点、2020年超配达到12个点。\n二、美股：机构抱团什么？\n1、抱团消费与成长\n美股机构投资者抱团消费与成长。美股机构投资者前100大重仓股集中在消费与成长，消费与成长风格的机构重仓股数量占比与持股市值占比始终高于50%，是机构投资者主要的抱团方向。抱团风格在过去二十年中并非稳定不变，2000年至2007年，机构阶段性加仓金融地产和周期，但自2007年至今，机构则重新增配消费与科技，且个股数量与市值占比大幅上升，目前消费与成长的市值占比已超八成。\n\n从具体行业看，2007年前机构抱团向能源与工业松动，而2007年以来坚守信息技术与可选消费。2000年至2007年，机构前100大重仓股中能源、工业、通信等行业增持幅度居前，分别达9.30%、1.96%和0.78%；而自2007年以来，信息技术、可选消费与医药行业重获大幅增持，增持比例分别达13.90%、11.19%和1.22%。\n\n2、抱团龙头\n美股机构对龙头的追逐在过去20年中从未止步，2009年以来愈演愈烈。\n一是从持股机构数量来看，龙头的持股机构数量遥遥领先。以流通市值前20%的美股代表龙头，流通市值后80%代表非龙头，持有龙头的机构数量中位数由20年前的230家增长至700余家，而持有非龙头的机构数量中位数水平目前仍仅为100家左右。\n进一步按流通市值分组，龙头的机构持股数量占优。将美股按流通市值分组，流通市值大于3000亿美元、2000-3000亿美元、1000-2000亿美元与500-1000亿美元之间的持股机构数量差距在过去10年中不断扩大，市值越大，持股机构越集中，机构“以大为美”的选股偏好进一步强化。\n二是从机构持股占比来看，龙头的机构占比也明显更高。自2009年以来龙头的机构持股占比的中位数基本维持在80%左右的高位，而非龙头机构占比维持在50%上下。\n三是从机构重仓股与美股龙头重合度来看，重合度不断提升意味着机构持续向龙头集中。机构持股市值前50、前100、前300与前500对全市场流通市值前50、前100、前300与前500的覆盖度近年来已基本维持在90%以上，而2000年前后这个比例仅有50%~60%，这说明美股绝大多数龙头已经纳入机构麾下。\n四是从个股角度，以FAAMG为例，机构占比明显提升。截至2020年四季度末，平均机构持股占比达74.4%，其中奈飞、脸书、谷歌的机构持股占比居前，分别达82.92%、81.02%和79.09%，FAAMNG也均位于机构前20大重仓股之中。\n\n3、抱团高ROE\n从重仓股看美股机构的选股偏好，相比于利润增速，美股机构更注重ROE。美股机构重仓股的ROE水平普遍较高，前50大重仓股的ROE高达26.1%，前100、前300、前500的ROE逐渐降低，但仍显著高于全部美股的ROE水平；而机构对于重仓股利润增速的偏好相对较低，利润增速中位数并非有序回落，机构更加注重长期增长的确定性。\n\n相应地，美股高ROE重仓股享有估值溢价。从PE角度。美股机构前50大重仓股的PE中位数为30.0，明显高于全部美股的18.9，且随着持仓仓位的下降，PE估值也有序下降；PB角度亦是如此，前50大重仓股PB中位数为7.2，高于全部美股的2.40。\n三、美股：抱团因何而起？\n科技与消费长期优质的基本面，是近十年机构坚守的重要驱动。90年代以来，美国消费、医药、科技行业持续处于景气上行周期。在过去20年中，除受互联网泡沫破裂的影响外，信息技术、医疗保健、必选消费等行业的ROE水平基本处于20%至30%区间，展现出更强且更稳定的成长性与盈利能力，而金融、能源、公用事业等周期类行业的ROE中枢持续下移，且波动较大。在基本面与景气度上行的驱动下，科技和消费龙头也就成为了机构抱团的必然选择，且随着分化的加剧，机构对于科技和消费的抱团将更加集中和紧密。\n\n机构投资者长期抱团美股龙头实际上也是对盈利确定性和稳定性的持续追求。中长期来看，美股机构化带来定价体系由估值主导向盈利主导变迁，机构投资者对龙头与非龙头的持股行为也呈现出较为明显的ROE驱动的特征，美股龙头与非龙头机构持股占比的分化水平与二者ROE分化水平之间的变动较为一致。\n\n近40年美股龙头保持更高的ROE，提供更加长期的稳定回报，成为机构的抱团首选。机构投资者在追求盈利确定性的过程中，增配ROE水平更高的美股龙头成为最“正确”的选择，对比美股机构前50、前100、前300重仓股的ROE中位数，呈现出越重仓的个股，ROE水平越高的特点，并在过去20年中基本维持有序，且大幅高于全市场中位数水平。\n\n除机构对确定性的追求外，近十年美国被动型基金大发展，也进一步强化了机构抱团龙头的效果。美国ETF规模由1998年的不足200亿增长至2020年的5.4万亿美元，股票型ETF的规模达4.2万亿美元，占比近八成。以美国ETF三巨头——先锋、贝莱德、道富为例，三家在标普500成分股的总持股占比由1999年的5.9%上升至2020年的19.1%，机构资金持续向优质龙头集中。\n\n四、总结\n1、美股机构抱团是常态，机构话语权不断增强，对机构重仓股长期维持超配。\n2、美股机构抱团也会阶段性向周期行业松动，但长期来看始终抱团消费与成长，尤其是2007年以来坚守信息技术与可选消费。\n3、机构对美股龙头的抱团追逐在过去二十年中从未止步，且近十年愈演愈烈，龙头的持股机构数量与持股占比均显著高于非龙头。\n4、相比于利润增速，美股机构更注重ROE，且重仓股享受估值溢价。\n5、对盈利确定性和稳定性的追求是美股抱团的根本驱动。科技和消费长期优质的基本面表现长期占优；近40年美股龙头保持更高的ROE，提供更加长期的稳定回报，成为机构的抱团首选。\n6、除此之外，美国被动型基金大发展，也进一步强化了机构抱团。\n风险提示\n1、机构持股数据来自FACTSET，第三方数据可能存在统计误差；2、历史数据统计与实际情况可能存在误差；3、对比研究方法存在局限性，结论或存在一定偏差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}