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2022-06-08

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Jidu Car Manufacturing delivers the "answer sheet": concept car released, production version will be launched this fall

2022-06-07

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@硬科技:高仙機器人：新品“奐影S1”發佈當日簽單超億元

2022-06-07

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2022-06-04

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@小咖科技:新機不息，套娃不止，無誠意的realme難以征戰AIoT市場

2022-06-04

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2022-06-01

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SaaS concept stocks rose, Salesforce rose more than 13%

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2022-05-25

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2022-05-24

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2022-05-24

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2022-05-23

Risk and opportunity

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2022-05-23

Risk and opportunity

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2022-05-22

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2022-05-22

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Who was hurt by the thunder explosion in the currency circle? Beware of "zero risk"

2022-05-20

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2022-05-20

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Has the "sanctions order" been overhead? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly

2022-05-03

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Night Reading | How to find the ideal trading entry position?

2022-05-02

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Apple faces EU antitrust lawsuit over payments

2022-05-01

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Berkshire: Net profit in the first quarter fell 53% year-on-year, significantly increasing holdings of Chevron

2022-04-30

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Netflix "stalls" together, and the streaming media track is filled with smoke

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On the evening of June 8, Jidu released the brand's first concept car ROBO-01. It is reported that Jidu plans to officially launch a limited edition of its first mass-produced model in the autumn of 2022. The mass-produced model has 90% similarity to the ROBO-01 concept car. From the official announcement of the establishment of a smart car company in January 2021, to determining the styling design of the first mass-produced car in a hundred days, to completing the visual and functional design of the automotive robot concept car in a year, and then to the debut in less than a year and a half The first concept car ROBO-01,...</p><p><a href=\"https://m.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-08/2313584.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://m.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-08/2313584.html\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ae7d9112d50d31a74b7bbf5023ee6d","relate_stocks":{"00175":"吉利汽车","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://m.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-08/2313584.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109073629","content_text":"在高考第二日结束后，集度在造车问题上也交上了属于自己的一份“答卷”。6月8日晚，集度发布了品牌首款概念车ROBO-01。据悉，集度计划于2022年秋季正式推出其首款量产车型的限定版，量产车型拥有与ROBO-01概念车90%的相似度。从2021年1月官宣创建智能汽车公司，到用百天确定了首款量产车的造型设计，到用一年时间完成汽车机器人概念车的视觉与功能设计，再到不到一年半亮相首款概念车ROBO-01，集度在造车的进程方面不可谓不快。据了解，集度计划于2022年秋季正式推出其首款量产车型的限定版。此外，集度还将于今年的广州车展上发布其第二款量产车型的设计。首款量产车定价在20万元左右集度由百度与吉利合资成立，双方分别控股55%和45%。集度CEO夏一平此前曾表示，百度会在集度中做主导。具体而言，百度会在整体上负责端到端的服务，无论是软硬件都由百度主导进行。而借助百度在自动驾驶及智能座舱方面的积累，集度认为其产品的关键卖点不在于“电车”，而在于“智能”。公开资料显示，集度的首款产品将搭载百度诸多车载技术，包括无激光雷达纯视觉自动驾驶方案（ANP+AVP）、DuerOS 人工智能系统等，并搭载英伟达Orin X芯片和高通8295芯片，分别负责智能驾驶和智能座舱。图片来源：每经记者 孙磊 摄值得一提的是，集度首款产品的研发方式与传统汽车有所不同，其采取了\"敏捷开发\"模式，将智能座舱和智能驾驶的研发前置，从而缩短造车周期。据悉，集度借鉴飞机研发中的变稳飞机开发模式，推出集度SIMUCar（软件集成模拟样车），SIMUCar可以模拟未来车型的三电系统以及底盘系统，使得集度汽车能够在接近真实的整车环境下，研发和验证智能座舱、自动驾驶等功能，实现车辆工程和软件同步开发，提高研发效率。在2022年电动车百人会论坛期间，夏一平表示，在汽车制造方式方面，整个汽车的发展大方向是向着智能设备发展，但未来无论是打造四个轮子的机器人，还是在路上行走的机器人，采用造机器人的方式相对是比较通用的，而集度也将此次发布的概念车ROBO-01称作汽车机器人。“智能汽车3.0时代就是汽车机器人的时代，时代变革起点是汽车‘驾驶权’由人类向AI转移，AI驱动汽车进化。3.0时代的汽车行业将实现从能源变革向产品属性变革跃迁，其终极目标是汽车驾驶无人化。”夏一平说。除了智能化领域的积累之外，集度首款产品对比目前已有纯电动SUV最为直观的优势还在于其价格。与该车尺寸相近的特斯拉Model Y、福特Mustang Mach-E的售价在30万元左右。而百度CEO李彦宏在百度今年一季度财报电话会上透露，集度的目标市场是家庭用车，首款量产车定价在20万元左右，预计2023年量产交付。中国电子商会智能电动汽车专委会研究院副院长纪雪洪认为，集度汽车能否在2023年成功走向市场，取决于其“智能汽车机器人”的想法是否走得通。“对集度汽车而言，百度的自动驾驶技术储备是一大优势。但能否真正推出一个智能汽车机器人、从智能化的纬度进行竞争，是制约其取胜的关键因素。”纪雪洪告诉《每日经济新闻》记者。2024年交付第二款产品夏一平此前透露，集度首款产品使用的智能化架构JET可以实现软硬解耦，集度接下来每年都会基于该架构向市场投放一款新车。据悉，集度将于今年的广州车展，发布其第二款量产车型的设计，在2023年开始接受订单，并在2024年交付车辆。在车辆研发之外，集度还在推进产品制造、基础设施建设、渠道搭建等方面的布局。此前，有消息称，集度将在上海、北京两地设厂落地整车生产。对此，集度方面回应，集度没有在北京和上海设厂，集度首款车在吉利杭州湾工厂制造。值得一提的是，对于车企是否需要自建工厂或者采用代工的模式，夏一平曾公开透露过集度的想法。“整个造车的生命周期至少也得两三年，行业的变化是肯定的，但是短期我认为并不会发展到一个资源共享的代工模式。”夏一平认为，从整个世界发展看，地球资源是有限的，产能也不是无限扩张的，所以每一家公司最后再考虑本质的话还是回归核心：是自建工厂对公司有利还是走向资源共享带动模式，目前还是两种同时发展。除了在吉利工厂进行制造外，集度还会沿用吉利的供应链网络和供应链资源，且没有自建工厂的计划。夏一平认为，这可以降低供应商与新品牌合作的意愿，同时也可以降低产品成本。在基础设施建设方面，集度目前已在北京、上海两地分别设立了北京集度科技有限公司、上海集度汽车有限公司，注册资本均为3.09亿美元，法定代表人均为夏一平。两家新公司经营业务主要是新能源汽车整车及相关零部件的制造、销售、技术服务，以及新能源汽车换电设施销售、电动汽车充电基础设施运营等。图片来源：每经记者 孙磊 摄纪雪洪认为，当前完善新能源汽车配套设施已成为蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车等新能源车企提升用户体验的重要措施。“集度汽车与上述车企在配套设施方面有着明显差距，提早搭建充换电设施有助于在汽车产品推出时提供更好的服务。”纪雪洪说。在渠道建设上，集度将采取自建渠道模式，未来也不排除会探索一些新模式。不过，初期仍然会自建直营渠道。不难看出，集度正在为实现产品量产及以后的工作进行布局。江西新能源科技职业学院新能源汽车技术研究院院长张翔认为：“尽管今年国内新能源汽车销量快速增长，但仍有较大成长空间。因此集度等新玩家仍有机会。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIDU":0.9,"00175":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051016643,"gmtCreate":1654608452782,"gmtModify":1676535477035,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051016643","repostId":"615171715","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":615171715,"gmtCreate":1652859008437,"gmtModify":1676533118059,"author":{"id":"4091686409339050","authorId":"4091686409339050","name":"硬科技","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af5a3bfa4ca7d0599601f1fbecf0d30","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091686409339050","authorIdStr":"4091686409339050"},"themes":[],"title":"高仙機器人：新品“奐影S1”發佈當日簽單超億元","htmlText":"高仙機器人：商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”發佈當日簽單超億元近日，高仙機器人發佈其商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”，這一產品在國內與海外同步銷售，海外名爲“Phantas”。據官方介紹，發佈當日，高仙機器人即簽單超1億元。（36氪）更多熱點資訊、洞察分析、研究報告、直播課程……敬請關注【硬科技】歡迎在各大主流平臺搜索【硬科技】，認準藍色logo的賬號！在這裏看見、讀懂和連接硬科技！我們聚焦光電芯片、人工智能、航空航天、新能源、智能汽車、生物醫藥、科創金融等行業，並依託於科技創新情報SaaS服務商智慧芽所擁有的獨特科技情報數據優勢，與讀者一起看見技術趨勢，讀懂硬科技產業，連接創新未來。“硬科技”由智慧芽創新研究中心出品。","listText":"高仙機器人：商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”發佈當日簽單超億元近日，高仙機器人發佈其商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”，這一產品在國內與海外同步銷售，海外名爲“Phantas”。據官方介紹，發佈當日，高仙機器人即簽單超1億元。（36氪）更多熱點資訊、洞察分析、研究報告、直播課程……敬請關注【硬科技】歡迎在各大主流平臺搜索【硬科技】，認準藍色logo的賬號！在這裏看見、讀懂和連接硬科技！我們聚焦光電芯片、人工智能、航空航天、新能源、智能汽車、生物醫藥、科創金融等行業，並依託於科技創新情報SaaS服務商智慧芽所擁有的獨特科技情報數據優勢，與讀者一起看見技術趨勢，讀懂硬科技產業，連接創新未來。“硬科技”由智慧芽創新研究中心出品。","text":"高仙機器人：商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”發佈當日簽單超億元近日，高仙機器人發佈其商用清潔機器人新品“奐影S1”，這一產品在國內與海外同步銷售，海外名爲“Phantas”。據官方介紹，發佈當日，高仙機器人即簽單超1億元。（36氪）更多熱點資訊、洞察分析、研究報告、直播課程……敬請關注【硬科技】歡迎在各大主流平臺搜索【硬科技】，認準藍色logo的賬號！在這裏看見、讀懂和連接硬科技！我們聚焦光電芯片、人工智能、航空航天、新能源、智能汽車、生物醫藥、科創金融等行業，並依託於科技創新情報SaaS服務商智慧芽所擁有的獨特科技情報數據優勢，與讀者一起看見技術趨勢，讀懂硬科技產業，連接創新未來。“硬科技”由智慧芽創新研究中心出品。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797612589130f0f9198e6259a4d95f43"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/615171715","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051018506,"gmtCreate":1654608394405,"gmtModify":1676535477004,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051018506","repostId":"1171329114","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059319855,"gmtCreate":1654302426677,"gmtModify":1676535427098,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059319855","repostId":"614023207","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614023207,"gmtCreate":1653295415610,"gmtModify":1676533137257,"author":{"id":"3561585442012100","authorId":"3561585442012100","name":"小咖科技","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c49940af36b09d1a12780ffb55f8fceb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561585442012100","authorIdStr":"3561585442012100"},"themes":[],"title":"新機不息，套娃不止，無誠意的realme難以征戰AIoT市場","htmlText":"文/張詩雨在機海戰術的助推下，手機套娃成realme的慣用手段。但萬萬沒想到，其宣傳即將推出的旗下首款平板也將使用這種套娃手段，顯然，realme這是要在套娃的路上越走越遠。筆者曾在《濫用機海戰術的realme問題顯現，成立近四年依然難逃小衆品牌宿命》一文中指出，在realme去年發佈的一系列機型中，realme GT、realme GTNeo、realme X7 Ultra、realme Q3i、realme Q3以及realme Q3Pro，通過對比發現，realme就是“無限套娃”技術。比如GT、GTNeo、Q3Pro三款手機，都有相同的後置三攝模組、6.43英寸AMOLED屏、3D鋼化液冷散熱，以及4500mAh大電池等。realme GT Neo閃速版和realme GT Neo則更誇張，兩款手機均採用天璣1200SOC，支持WIFI6，屏幕也都採用三星AMOLED屏幕，都支持6400萬索尼廣角三攝，不同點只是配色和充電速度上。嚐到甜頭的realme如今又將這種套娃“技術”完美複製在其平板產品上。據此前媒體報道，真我即將發佈的旗下第一款平板realme Pad搭載驍龍870芯片，同時也會搭載2.5K分辨率的120Hz LCD屏幕，電池容量爲8360mAh。realme徐起表示，該產品將會是同價位“板王”。衆所周知，武俠小說中有一項絕技叫易容術，將易容工具套在頭上可以變換面目，人皮面具最爲精緻，據說能以假亂真，武林中許多高手皆擅此道，在江湖上行走時廣泛使用。realme瘋狂造勢下也難掩尷尬，套娃情景比電視劇情節還要精彩。OPPO在二月份發佈的OPPO pad也採用了2.5K 120Hz高刷新率屏幕，搭載高通驍龍870旗艦處理器，電池容量爲8360mAh。如果realme的新品果真是如此配置，可以說，又將是realme換湯不換藥的騷操作。值得注意的是，很多廠商不乏套娃","listText":"文/張詩雨在機海戰術的助推下，手機套娃成realme的慣用手段。但萬萬沒想到，其宣傳即將推出的旗下首款平板也將使用這種套娃手段，顯然，realme這是要在套娃的路上越走越遠。筆者曾在《濫用機海戰術的realme問題顯現，成立近四年依然難逃小衆品牌宿命》一文中指出，在realme去年發佈的一系列機型中，realme GT、realme GTNeo、realme X7 Ultra、realme Q3i、realme Q3以及realme Q3Pro，通過對比發現，realme就是“無限套娃”技術。比如GT、GTNeo、Q3Pro三款手機，都有相同的後置三攝模組、6.43英寸AMOLED屏、3D鋼化液冷散熱，以及4500mAh大電池等。realme GT Neo閃速版和realme GT Neo則更誇張，兩款手機均採用天璣1200SOC，支持WIFI6，屏幕也都採用三星AMOLED屏幕，都支持6400萬索尼廣角三攝，不同點只是配色和充電速度上。嚐到甜頭的realme如今又將這種套娃“技術”完美複製在其平板產品上。據此前媒體報道，真我即將發佈的旗下第一款平板realme Pad搭載驍龍870芯片，同時也會搭載2.5K分辨率的120Hz LCD屏幕，電池容量爲8360mAh。realme徐起表示，該產品將會是同價位“板王”。衆所周知，武俠小說中有一項絕技叫易容術，將易容工具套在頭上可以變換面目，人皮面具最爲精緻，據說能以假亂真，武林中許多高手皆擅此道，在江湖上行走時廣泛使用。realme瘋狂造勢下也難掩尷尬，套娃情景比電視劇情節還要精彩。OPPO在二月份發佈的OPPO pad也採用了2.5K 120Hz高刷新率屏幕，搭載高通驍龍870旗艦處理器，電池容量爲8360mAh。如果realme的新品果真是如此配置，可以說，又將是realme換湯不換藥的騷操作。值得注意的是，很多廠商不乏套娃","text":"文/張詩雨在機海戰術的助推下，手機套娃成realme的慣用手段。但萬萬沒想到，其宣傳即將推出的旗下首款平板也將使用這種套娃手段，顯然，realme這是要在套娃的路上越走越遠。筆者曾在《濫用機海戰術的realme問題顯現，成立近四年依然難逃小衆品牌宿命》一文中指出，在realme去年發佈的一系列機型中，realme GT、realme GTNeo、realme X7 Ultra、realme Q3i、realme Q3以及realme Q3Pro，通過對比發現，realme就是“無限套娃”技術。比如GT、GTNeo、Q3Pro三款手機，都有相同的後置三攝模組、6.43英寸AMOLED屏、3D鋼化液冷散熱，以及4500mAh大電池等。realme GT Neo閃速版和realme GT Neo則更誇張，兩款手機均採用天璣1200SOC，支持WIFI6，屏幕也都採用三星AMOLED屏幕，都支持6400萬索尼廣角三攝，不同點只是配色和充電速度上。嚐到甜頭的realme如今又將這種套娃“技術”完美複製在其平板產品上。據此前媒體報道，真我即將發佈的旗下第一款平板realme Pad搭載驍龍870芯片，同時也會搭載2.5K分辨率的120Hz LCD屏幕，電池容量爲8360mAh。realme徐起表示，該產品將會是同價位“板王”。衆所周知，武俠小說中有一項絕技叫易容術，將易容工具套在頭上可以變換面目，人皮面具最爲精緻，據說能以假亂真，武林中許多高手皆擅此道，在江湖上行走時廣泛使用。realme瘋狂造勢下也難掩尷尬，套娃情景比電視劇情節還要精彩。OPPO在二月份發佈的OPPO pad也採用了2.5K 120Hz高刷新率屏幕，搭載高通驍龍870旗艦處理器，電池容量爲8360mAh。如果realme的新品果真是如此配置，可以說，又將是realme換湯不換藥的騷操作。值得注意的是，很多廠商不乏套娃","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a643472d5d07d5b423ebb04fc5c6de9"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9cd8bf041073ef424d14dbcc76e8e93"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c15fad33c7f1803386273a925aa0bb0d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614023207","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059310620,"gmtCreate":1654302348660,"gmtModify":1676535427106,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059310620","repostId":"2240203501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2240203501","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654290414,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240203501?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 05:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed hawkish senior official: Inflation has not peaked, and several more 50 basis point rate hike are needed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240203501","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"2022年票委克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特周五称，需要看到通胀正在回落的令人信服的证据，包括连续几个月的数据下降，才能得出通胀已经见顶的结论。如果通胀不降温，可能支持9月加息50个基点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, June 3, Eastern Time, the 2022 voting committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester expressed his support for a 50 basis point rate hike in the next few months because he did not see enough evidence that inflation had peaked.</p><p>I remain inclined to support the FOMC's rate hike of 50 basis points in June and July respectively. If inflation fails to pull back, I will support a further FOMC rate hike of 50 basis points in September. On Friday, an earlier article on Wall Street News mentioned that the U.S. Department of Labor released the May non-farm payrolls report. Data showed that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 390,000 in May, exceeding the expected 320,000, but worse than the previous April value. 428,000 people, the smallest increase in 13 months since April 2021. The analysis pointed out that the slowdown in wage growth will help ease inflation, and the data show that the labor market is still tight. When talking about the latest non-farm payroll data, Mester said:</p><p>The (latest non-farm payrolls) payrolls report is strong, and the slowdown in wage growth is also a good thing. Hope to see a pullback in the job market to some extent. Hopefully, there is compelling evidence of a downward trend in inflation in the United States. While other recent data points show that at least the pace of rising inflation has abated, Meister said she needs to see this trend extend for many months before she can really feel at ease:</p><p>I don't want to declare a victory for inflation until I see truly compelling evidence that our actions are starting to work in bringing declining demand to a better balance with aggregate supply. It is too early to say that this will change our outlook or my policy outlook, the number one problem in the economy is still very high inflation, which has risen well above acceptable levels, and that must be our focus going forward. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in early May and signaled that it would conduct similar rate hike in June and July to quickly bring interest rates to levels that neither stimulate nor slow down the economy. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's May meeting showed that officials are more open about what action to take in September, which will depend on inflation.</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic recently said that if inflation falls faster than expected in the summer, the Fed may consider suspending rate hike in September, which drew a strong market reaction. However, Bostic, who put forward the view of \"suspending rate hike in September\" last week, clearly clarified this week that the view has nothing to do with rescuing the market.</p><p>However, Fed Governor Waller, who has always had the right to vote at FOMC meetings during his term of office, refuted the idea of suspending rate hike in September, saying that he would prefer rate hike's hawkish remarks of 50 basis points at the next \"several meetings.\" After the market has just begun to rise, the Fed's September suspension of rate hike expectations \"subsided\". On Thursday, brainard, the No. 2 figure of the Federal Reserve, also said that \"it is difficult to find a reason to suspend rate hike in September.\"</p><p>As a hawk of the Federal Reserve, Mester said in mid-May that the possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike in September was put on the agenda again. However, Mester's remarks on Thursday and Friday showed some change. On Thursday, she said:</p><p>If by the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, monthly inflation data provides compelling evidence that inflation is falling, then the pace of rate hike may slow; If inflation fails to ease, then it may be necessary to accelerate the pace of rate hike. However, Mester also warned that the risk of an economic recession in the United States is increasing, but a sharp economic slowdown can still be avoided.</p><p>Fed officials will hold their next policy meeting two weeks later on June 14 and 15.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed hawkish senior official: Inflation has not peaked, and several more 50 basis point rate hike are needed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed hawkish senior official: Inflation has not peaked, and several more 50 basis point rate hike are needed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 05:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, June 3, Eastern Time, the 2022 voting committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester expressed his support for a 50 basis point rate hike in the next few months because he did not see enough evidence that inflation had peaked.</p><p>I remain inclined to support the FOMC's rate hike of 50 basis points in June and July respectively. If inflation fails to pull back, I will support a further FOMC rate hike of 50 basis points in September. On Friday, an earlier article on Wall Street News mentioned that the U.S. Department of Labor released the May non-farm payrolls report. Data showed that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 390,000 in May, exceeding the expected 320,000, but worse than the previous April value. 428,000 people, the smallest increase in 13 months since April 2021. The analysis pointed out that the slowdown in wage growth will help ease inflation, and the data show that the labor market is still tight. When talking about the latest non-farm payroll data, Mester said:</p><p>The (latest non-farm payrolls) payrolls report is strong, and the slowdown in wage growth is also a good thing. Hope to see a pullback in the job market to some extent. Hopefully, there is compelling evidence of a downward trend in inflation in the United States. While other recent data points show that at least the pace of rising inflation has abated, Meister said she needs to see this trend extend for many months before she can really feel at ease:</p><p>I don't want to declare a victory for inflation until I see truly compelling evidence that our actions are starting to work in bringing declining demand to a better balance with aggregate supply. It is too early to say that this will change our outlook or my policy outlook, the number one problem in the economy is still very high inflation, which has risen well above acceptable levels, and that must be our focus going forward. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in early May and signaled that it would conduct similar rate hike in June and July to quickly bring interest rates to levels that neither stimulate nor slow down the economy. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's May meeting showed that officials are more open about what action to take in September, which will depend on inflation.</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic recently said that if inflation falls faster than expected in the summer, the Fed may consider suspending rate hike in September, which drew a strong market reaction. However, Bostic, who put forward the view of \"suspending rate hike in September\" last week, clearly clarified this week that the view has nothing to do with rescuing the market.</p><p>However, Fed Governor Waller, who has always had the right to vote at FOMC meetings during his term of office, refuted the idea of suspending rate hike in September, saying that he would prefer rate hike's hawkish remarks of 50 basis points at the next \"several meetings.\" After the market has just begun to rise, the Fed's September suspension of rate hike expectations \"subsided\". On Thursday, brainard, the No. 2 figure of the Federal Reserve, also said that \"it is difficult to find a reason to suspend rate hike in September.\"</p><p>As a hawk of the Federal Reserve, Mester said in mid-May that the possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike in September was put on the agenda again. However, Mester's remarks on Thursday and Friday showed some change. On Thursday, she said:</p><p>If by the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, monthly inflation data provides compelling evidence that inflation is falling, then the pace of rate hike may slow; If inflation fails to ease, then it may be necessary to accelerate the pace of rate hike. However, Mester also warned that the risk of an economic recession in the United States is increasing, but a sharp economic slowdown can still be avoided.</p><p>Fed officials will hold their next policy meeting two weeks later on June 14 and 15.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661072\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661072","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240203501","content_text":"美东时间6月3日周五，2022年票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特表示其支持在未来几个月加息50个基点，因为其并没有看到足够的证据表明通胀已经见顶。我仍然倾向于支持FOMC在6月和7月分别加息50个基点。如果通胀没能回落，我将支持FOMC在9月份进一步加息50个基点。周五，华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及美国劳工部发布5月非农就业报告，数据显示，美国5月非农就业新增39万，超过预期的32万人，但逊于4月前值的42.8万人，并创2021年4月以来的13个月最小增幅。分析指出，薪资增幅放缓有助于缓解通胀，数据显示劳动力市场依旧趋紧。梅斯特在谈及最新出炉的非农数据时表示：（最新发布的非农）就业报告是强劲的，薪资增速放缓也是好事。 希望看到就业市场在一定程度上出现回调。希望有令人信服的证据表明美国出现通胀下滑趋势。虽然最近的其他数据点显示，至少通胀上升的速度已经减弱，但梅斯特表示，她需要看到这种趋势延续多个月后才能真正安心：在我看到真正令人信服的证据表明我们的行动开始在使需求下降与总供给更好地平衡方面发挥作用之前，我不想宣布通胀的胜利。现在说这将改变我们的前景或我的政策前景还太早，经济中的头号问题仍然是非常高的通货膨胀，已远远高于可接受的水平，这必须是我们未来的重点。美联储在5月初将基准利率上调了50个基点，并暗示将在6月和7月进行类似幅度的加息，以迅速将利率调至既不刺激、也不放缓经济的水平。美联储5月份会议的纪要显示，官员们对于9月份采取何种行动持更加开放的态度，将根据通货膨胀的情况而定。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克近期表示如果夏季通胀下降速度快于预期，美联储可能考虑在9月暂停加息后，引来市场强烈的反应。不过上周提出“9月暂停加息”观点的博斯蒂克这周明确澄清，观点与救助市场无关。不过，在任内始终拥有FOMC会议投票权的美联储理事沃勒驳斥了9月暂停加息的说法，称他倾向于在接下来的“几次会议”上加息50基点的鹰派言论后，市场刚刚开始兴起的美联储9月暂停加息预期“退烧”。而本周四美联储二号人物布雷纳德也称，“很难找到9月份暂停加息的理由”。作为美联储鹰派的梅斯特，曾在5月中旬表示9月加息75个基点的可能性被再次提上日程。不过，梅斯特本周四和周五的言论则显示了些许变化，周四她曾表示：如果到9月的联邦公开市场委员会会议上，月度通胀数据提供了令人信服的证据，表明通胀正在下降，那么加息的步伐可能会放缓；如果通胀未能缓和，那么可能有必要加快加息步伐。不过梅斯特也警告称，美国爆发经济衰退的风险正在加重，但经济大幅放缓仍可避免。美联储官员将在两周后的6月14日、15日召开下一次政策会议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SPXU":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SPY":1,"ESmain":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"DXD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DDM":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027774958,"gmtCreate":1654095189574,"gmtModify":1676535393297,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027774958","repostId":"1140335557","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140335557","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1654091126,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140335557?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-01 21:45","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"SaaS concept stocks rose, Salesforce rose more than 13%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140335557","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月1日，SaaS概念股盘初走高，Salesforce涨超13%，Twilio、Adobe涨超4%，Shopify涨逾3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On June 1, SaaS concept stocks rose early in the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>Up more than 13%, Twilio,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It rose more than 4%, and Shopify rose more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/558b1e537226d979f0494331c3a57adc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SaaS concept stocks rose, Salesforce rose more than 13%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSaaS concept stocks rose, Salesforce rose more than 13%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-01 21:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On June 1, SaaS concept stocks rose early in the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>Up more than 13%, Twilio,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It rose more than 4%, and Shopify rose more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/558b1e537226d979f0494331c3a57adc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140335557","content_text":"6月1日，SaaS概念股盘初走高，Salesforce涨超13%，Twilio、Adobe涨超4%，Shopify涨逾3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024804750,"gmtCreate":1653834784670,"gmtModify":1676535348579,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024804750","repostId":"1190142421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190142421","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653795735,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190142421?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-29 11:42","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"The world's best stock-speculating central bank suffered a huge loss? What's going on here","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190142421","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年迄今为止，瑞士央行的股票投资回报十分糟糕。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The past few months have been very difficult for the Swiss National Bank.</p><p>According to media reports, Meyrick Chapman, a former portfolio manager at Elliott Asset Management and UBS bond strategist, recently analyzed that the Swiss National Bank's stock investment returns have been very poor so far this year.<b>The losses could amount to about 75 billion Swiss francs ($78 billion), which is about 10% of Switzerland's GDP.</b></p><p><b>The loss of bonds may be even more shocking. He predicts that if bond prices fall as much in the second quarter of this year as in the first quarter, the first half will be troubling for the Swiss National Bank, which could lose 120 billion Swiss francs, equivalent to 16% of GDP, if the stock market does not recover.</b></p><p>However, even after suffering investment losses, the central bank still enjoyed rich returns and achieved its goal of controlling the currency exchange rate.</p><p>Is this huge loss terrible?</p><p>In fact, these losses by the SNB have little impact on the country, because the central bank's large overseas holdings provide a buffer.</p><p><b>The SNB's long-term gains from the stock market far outweigh those losses and the meager interest offered to Swiss depositors.</b>Although central banks such as the Bank of England and the RBA have to admit that quantitative easing's policies have caused them heavy losses, the Swiss National Bank is in a much safer position.</p><p>Meyrick Chapman estimates that at the end of 2021, the SNB made about $90 billion in investment profits. Although it suffered some damage,<b>But the SNB may still have retained about $65 billion in profits, a massive gain that has created a huge financial buffer for the country.</b></p><p><b>The Swiss National Bank's top choice for investment is to buy European bonds. But as market demand for the Swiss franc surged, the Swiss National Bank set its sights on overseas assets, buying bonds and stocks in the United States and elsewhere. As a result, foreign demand for the Swiss franc is converted into an asset of the Swiss National Bank.</b></p><p>This makes Switzerland earn a lot of money. But to a large extent, the inflow of deposits means liabilities, and the Swiss National Bank's policy aims to offset this liability with overseas assets. Its purpose is to prevent the Swiss franc from appreciating further, not just to make money.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank's policy is very different from that of other countries</p><p>The Swiss National Bank has been struggling with the appreciation of its currency, and although the central bank's policies are quite different from those of other countries, they have similarly led to explosive balance sheet expansion.</p><p>Before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves were only 80 billion Swiss francs. Today, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves are just over 1 trillion Swiss francs, or 1.04 trillion US dollars.</p><p>The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan or the Bank of England all purchase assets to increase the liquidity of their own economies. These buying frenzy are fueled by the issuance of new currency, which in turn is deposited in the banking system as reserves.</p><p>In contrast, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves have increased 12 times, which is the result of its fight against the wild appreciation of the Swiss franc.<b>Swiss investors investing domestically, as well as foreigners seeking asylum in the eurozone crisis, have pushed up the Swiss currency seen by many as the ultimate \"safe haven\".</b></p><p><b>As a result, a Swiss version of quantitative easing's policy was born. The newly issued Swiss francs were sold to investors who used it as a safe haven, and the proceeds were used to buy foreign assets.</b></p><p>At its meeting that month, the Swiss National Bank said:</p><p>The Swiss National Bank will retain its expansionary monetary policy. It keeps the policy rate and the demand deposit rate at the central bank at-0.75%, and is willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary,<b>In response to upward pressure on the Swiss franc.</b>In doing so, it takes into account the overall monetary situation and the difference in inflation rates with other countries. The exchange rate of the Swiss franc remains high. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has led to a strong increase in uncertainty around the world. Against this backdrop, the Swiss National Bank ensures price stability and supports the Swiss economy through its monetary policy. As of now, the exchange rate of the Swiss franc is quoted at 1 Swiss franc to 1.04 US dollars, a slight decrease from a year ago. At the beginning of March, the Swiss franc was once pushed to parity with the euro.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9a3baf28e6eece77f4fedc80c5f385\" tg-width=\"1364\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Therefore, the SNB will still focus its policy on foreign asset purchases for the foreseeable future. If upward pressure on the Swiss franc continues, the SNB could buy more. After all, the policy has worked.</b></p><p>The SNB is legally restricted from paying up to 6% of Dividend, so it cannot easily give up profits. Since 2010, the central bank has increased excess reserves based on the size of assets, which sets the SNB apart from other central banks. Other central banks have relatively few excess reserves, and these excess reserves are likely to diminish rapidly as \"quantitative tightening\" evolves.</p><p><b>Analysts believe that market logic is beneficial to the Swiss National Bank.</b>Losses in bonds and stocks are usually linked to the appreciation of the US dollar. Although the appreciation of the US dollar will damage the foreign exchange reserves of the Swiss National Bank, no matter which direction it moves, it is good for the Swiss National Bank.<b>When the Swiss franc appreciates, the SNB's reserve assets appreciate; When its reserve assets depreciate, the Swiss franc depreciates accordingly-which is exactly what the Swiss National Bank wants to control.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The world's best stock-speculating central bank suffered a huge loss? What's going on here</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe world's best stock-speculating central bank suffered a huge loss? What's going on here\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-29 11:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The past few months have been very difficult for the Swiss National Bank.</p><p>According to media reports, Meyrick Chapman, a former portfolio manager at Elliott Asset Management and UBS bond strategist, recently analyzed that the Swiss National Bank's stock investment returns have been very poor so far this year.<b>The losses could amount to about 75 billion Swiss francs ($78 billion), which is about 10% of Switzerland's GDP.</b></p><p><b>The loss of bonds may be even more shocking. He predicts that if bond prices fall as much in the second quarter of this year as in the first quarter, the first half will be troubling for the Swiss National Bank, which could lose 120 billion Swiss francs, equivalent to 16% of GDP, if the stock market does not recover.</b></p><p>However, even after suffering investment losses, the central bank still enjoyed rich returns and achieved its goal of controlling the currency exchange rate.</p><p>Is this huge loss terrible?</p><p>In fact, these losses by the SNB have little impact on the country, because the central bank's large overseas holdings provide a buffer.</p><p><b>The SNB's long-term gains from the stock market far outweigh those losses and the meager interest offered to Swiss depositors.</b>Although central banks such as the Bank of England and the RBA have to admit that quantitative easing's policies have caused them heavy losses, the Swiss National Bank is in a much safer position.</p><p>Meyrick Chapman estimates that at the end of 2021, the SNB made about $90 billion in investment profits. Although it suffered some damage,<b>But the SNB may still have retained about $65 billion in profits, a massive gain that has created a huge financial buffer for the country.</b></p><p><b>The Swiss National Bank's top choice for investment is to buy European bonds. But as market demand for the Swiss franc surged, the Swiss National Bank set its sights on overseas assets, buying bonds and stocks in the United States and elsewhere. As a result, foreign demand for the Swiss franc is converted into an asset of the Swiss National Bank.</b></p><p>This makes Switzerland earn a lot of money. But to a large extent, the inflow of deposits means liabilities, and the Swiss National Bank's policy aims to offset this liability with overseas assets. Its purpose is to prevent the Swiss franc from appreciating further, not just to make money.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank's policy is very different from that of other countries</p><p>The Swiss National Bank has been struggling with the appreciation of its currency, and although the central bank's policies are quite different from those of other countries, they have similarly led to explosive balance sheet expansion.</p><p>Before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves were only 80 billion Swiss francs. Today, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves are just over 1 trillion Swiss francs, or 1.04 trillion US dollars.</p><p>The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan or the Bank of England all purchase assets to increase the liquidity of their own economies. These buying frenzy are fueled by the issuance of new currency, which in turn is deposited in the banking system as reserves.</p><p>In contrast, the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves have increased 12 times, which is the result of its fight against the wild appreciation of the Swiss franc.<b>Swiss investors investing domestically, as well as foreigners seeking asylum in the eurozone crisis, have pushed up the Swiss currency seen by many as the ultimate \"safe haven\".</b></p><p><b>As a result, a Swiss version of quantitative easing's policy was born. The newly issued Swiss francs were sold to investors who used it as a safe haven, and the proceeds were used to buy foreign assets.</b></p><p>At its meeting that month, the Swiss National Bank said:</p><p>The Swiss National Bank will retain its expansionary monetary policy. It keeps the policy rate and the demand deposit rate at the central bank at-0.75%, and is willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary,<b>In response to upward pressure on the Swiss franc.</b>In doing so, it takes into account the overall monetary situation and the difference in inflation rates with other countries. The exchange rate of the Swiss franc remains high. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has led to a strong increase in uncertainty around the world. Against this backdrop, the Swiss National Bank ensures price stability and supports the Swiss economy through its monetary policy. As of now, the exchange rate of the Swiss franc is quoted at 1 Swiss franc to 1.04 US dollars, a slight decrease from a year ago. At the beginning of March, the Swiss franc was once pushed to parity with the euro.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9a3baf28e6eece77f4fedc80c5f385\" tg-width=\"1364\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Therefore, the SNB will still focus its policy on foreign asset purchases for the foreseeable future. If upward pressure on the Swiss franc continues, the SNB could buy more. After all, the policy has worked.</b></p><p>The SNB is legally restricted from paying up to 6% of Dividend, so it cannot easily give up profits. Since 2010, the central bank has increased excess reserves based on the size of assets, which sets the SNB apart from other central banks. Other central banks have relatively few excess reserves, and these excess reserves are likely to diminish rapidly as \"quantitative tightening\" evolves.</p><p><b>Analysts believe that market logic is beneficial to the Swiss National Bank.</b>Losses in bonds and stocks are usually linked to the appreciation of the US dollar. Although the appreciation of the US dollar will damage the foreign exchange reserves of the Swiss National Bank, no matter which direction it moves, it is good for the Swiss National Bank.<b>When the Swiss franc appreciates, the SNB's reserve assets appreciate; When its reserve assets depreciate, the Swiss franc depreciates accordingly-which is exactly what the Swiss National Bank wants to control.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3660564\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03ef1080a7350c830e3b86dc8bf24737","relate_stocks":{"EWL":"瑞士ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3660564","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1190142421","content_text":"过去几个月对瑞士央行来说十分难捱。据媒体报道，曾任 Elliott 资产管理公司投资组合经理和瑞银债券策略师的 Meyrick Chapman 最近分析认为，今年迄今为止，瑞士央行的股票投资回报十分糟糕，损失可能达到750亿瑞士法郎（合780亿美元）左右，大约相当于瑞士GDP的10%。债券的损失可能更为触目惊心。他预计，如果债券价格在今年第二季度的跌幅与第一季度一样大，瑞士央行上半年的情况将令人不安，如果股市没有复苏，该央行可能会损失1200亿瑞郎，相当于GDP的16%。不过即便遭遇投资亏损，该央行仍然坐拥丰厚回报，并且实现了其控制货币汇率的目标。这种巨额亏损可怕吗？事实上，瑞士央行的这些亏损对该国影响并不大，因为该央行持有的大量海外资产提供了缓冲。瑞士央行从股市中获得的长期收益远远超过这些损失和向瑞士储户提供的微薄利息。尽管英国央行和澳大利亚央行等央行不得不承认量化宽松政策使其遭受重大损失，但瑞士央行的处境要相对安全很多。Meyrick Chapman 估计，截至2021年底，瑞士央行的投资利润约为900亿美元。虽然遭遇了一些破坏，但瑞士央行仍可能保留了大约650亿美元的利润，这笔巨额收益为该国带来了巨大的金融缓冲。瑞士央行投资的首选是购买欧洲债券。但随着市场对瑞士法郎的需求激增，瑞士央行将目光投向了海外资产，在美国和其他地区购买债券和股票。因此，外国对瑞士法郎的需求被转换成了瑞士央行的资产。这让瑞士赚得盆满钵满。但从很大程度上来讲，存款的流入意味着负债，瑞士央行的政策旨在用海外资产来抵消这种负债，其目的是防止瑞士法郎进一步升值，而不仅仅是赚钱。瑞士央行的政策与其他国家的截然不同瑞士央行一直在与其货币升值作斗争，尽管该央行的政策与其他国家的政策截然不同，但同样导致了资产负债表的爆炸性扩张。在雷曼兄弟破产以及随后爆发的欧元区主权债务危机之前，瑞士央行的外汇储备只有800亿瑞郎。如今，瑞士央行的外汇储备已经略高于1万亿瑞郎，合1.04万亿美元。美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行或英国央行等都通过购买资产来增加本国经济的流动性。这些购买狂潮是通过发行新的货币来推动的，而这些新的货币又作为准备金存入银行系统。相比之下，瑞士央行外汇储备增长了12倍，是其对抗瑞士法郎疯狂升值的结果。投资于国内的瑞士投资者，以及在欧元区危机中寻求庇护的外国人推高了被许多人视为终极“避风港”的瑞士货币。于是，一个瑞士版的量化宽松政策诞生了，新发行的瑞士法郎被卖给了那些用于避险的投资者，而所得的收益则被用来购买外国资产。在当月的会议上，瑞士央行表示：瑞士央行将保留其扩张性的货币政策。它将政策利率和在央行的活期存款利率保持在-0.75%，并愿意在必要时干预外汇市场，以应对瑞士法郎的上涨压力。在这样做的时候，它考虑到了整体货币形势和与其他国家的通胀率差异。瑞士法郎的汇率仍然很高。俄乌危机导致全世界的不确定性强烈增加，在此背景下，瑞士央行通过其货币政策确保价格稳定并支持瑞士经济。截至目前，瑞士法郎汇率报1瑞士法郎兑1.04美元，相比一年前小幅下跌。在3月初，瑞士法郎一度被推高至与欧元平价的水平。因此，在可预见的未来，瑞士央行仍将把政策重点放在购买外国资产上。如果瑞士法郎继续面临上涨压力，瑞士央行可能会购买更多。毕竟，这项政策已经奏效。瑞士央行在法律上被限制支付最高6%的股息，因此它不能轻易放弃利润。自2010年以来，该央行已根据资产规模增加超额准备金，这使瑞士央行有别于其他央行。其他央行的超额准备金相对较少，随着“量化紧缩”的演变，这些超额准备金可能会迅速减少。分析人士认为，市场逻辑对瑞士央行有利。债券和股票的损失通常与美元升值挂钩，美元升值虽然会损害瑞士央行的外汇储备，但无论其在哪个方向变动，对瑞士央行都是有好处的。当瑞士法郎升值时，瑞士央行的储备资产就会升值；当其储备资产贬值时，瑞士法郎就会相应贬值——这也正是瑞士央行想要控制的目标。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022102401,"gmtCreate":1653486573603,"gmtModify":1676535290658,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022102401","repostId":"1141527844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141527844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653482792,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141527844?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-25 20:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will Wei's self-research battery cells be negative for the Ningde era?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141527844","media":"第一财经","summary":"整车厂不想只给上游“打工”了。5月25日，上海企事业单位环境信息公开平台显示，上海蔚来汽车有限公司拟投资2.185亿元，计划在上海市嘉定区安亭镇新建研发项目，包括从事锂离子电芯和电池包研发的31个研发","content":"<p><div>OEMs don't want to just \"work\" for the upstream. On May 25, the Shanghai Enterprise and Institution Environmental Information Disclosure Platform showed that Shanghai Nio Automobile Co., Ltd. plans to invest 218.5 million yuan to build a new R&D project in Anting Town, Jiading District, Shanghai, including 31 R&D laboratories engaged in the research and development of lithium-ion batteries and battery packs, as well as a lithium-ion battery cell trial production line and a battery pack line, which are expected to be constructed from August to October this year. Some insiders believe that this means that Nio has begun to develop its own batteries to prepare for self-developed, self-produced, and self-used power batteries. But as to whether it will develop and produce its own batteries, Nio Automobile...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101423921.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Wei's self-research battery cells be negative for the Ningde era?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Wei's self-research battery cells be negative for the Ningde era?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-25 20:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>OEMs don't want to just \"work\" for the upstream. On May 25, the Shanghai Enterprise and Institution Environmental Information Disclosure Platform showed that Shanghai Nio Automobile Co., Ltd. plans to invest 218.5 million yuan to build a new R&D project in Anting Town, Jiading District, Shanghai, including 31 R&D laboratories engaged in the research and development of lithium-ion batteries and battery packs, as well as a lithium-ion battery cell trial production line and a battery pack line, which are expected to be constructed from August to October this year. Some insiders believe that this means that Nio has begun to develop its own batteries to prepare for self-developed, self-produced, and self-used power batteries. But as to whether it will develop and produce its own batteries, Nio Automobile...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101423921.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101423921.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e93e082b7ec44c8b12bf8070e53a73ef","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代","NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101423921.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141527844","content_text":"整车厂不想只给上游“打工”了。5月25日，上海企事业单位环境信息公开平台显示，上海蔚来汽车有限公司拟投资2.185亿元，计划在上海市嘉定区安亭镇新建研发项目，包括从事锂离子电芯和电池包研发的31个研发实验室，以及1条锂离子电芯试制线和1条电池包pack线，预计今年8月至10月期间施工。有业内人士认为，这意味着蔚来开始自研电芯，为自研、自产、自用动力电池做好准备。但就是否会自研、自产电芯，蔚来汽车方面暂未对第一财经记者做出回复。不过在建设项目工程分析中，蔚来汽车明确表示，本项目试制线的建设拟为后续发展过程中可能的规模化生产做好前期探索，试制样品用于后续深度开发。早在2021年9月，蔚来就发布了自研动力电池包。该电池包采用了三元锂与磷酸铁锂电芯混合排布的方式，蔚来方面称之为“三元铁锂”电池，并拥有其相关发明专利。但值得注意的是，该电池包中的三元锂电芯和磷酸铁锂电芯供应商均为宁德时代。目前蔚来汽车共拥有宁德时代和卫蓝新能源两家动力电池供应商，但卫蓝新能源主打半固态及固态电池，尚未进入量产阶段，目前蔚来所有在售产品上使用的动力电池电芯均由宁德时代提供。起点研究院（SPIR）统计数据显示，2021年蔚来汽车是宁德时代第二大客户，仅次于特斯拉。小鹏汽车则是宁德时代第三大客户，约80%的动力电池供应来自于宁德时代。此外，宁德时代还是理想汽车的独家供应商。中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟数据显示，宁德时代的市占率已经连续两年在50%以上，占据了中国动力电池的半壁江山。但仅依靠宁德时代供应动力电池，已给部分新能源车企带来了风险。早前由于电池供应问题，小鹏部分车型出现延期交付的情况，进而发生用户维权事件；蔚来汽车创始人、董事长、CEO李斌在去年3月财报电话会议中亦表示，当年二季度的电池供应是其最大瓶颈。汽车行业研究员张翔在接受媒体采访时曾表示，“宁德时代的产能有限，不可能满足那么多车企的供应需求，那么车企就不得不找别的供应商。”他认为，超过50%的市场份额让宁德时代话语权过大，这并非车企乐意看到的。随着新能源汽车销量规模的持续扩大，动力电池涨价和缺货已成为新能源车企的“切肤之痛”。此外亦有报道显示，车企不满宁德时代较为强势的态度，多家车企已经开始布局在宁德时代之外的“备选方案”。5月23日的财报电话会上，小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏称，小鹏汽车从去年下半年开始一直在引入更多的电池合作伙伴，期望有更多电池合作伙伴，解决之前由于缺乏电池而导致产能不足的问题。今年2月24日，蔚来关联企业蔚瑞投资投资欣旺达电池，出资2.5亿，持股2%。3月27日，广汽埃安总经理古惠南对媒体表示，埃安电池试制线将于今年年底投入运营，目标实现自己掌握核心技术，并仍将与上游锂电公司保持合作。近期蔚来的环评报告亦显示了蔚来有意布局电芯、电池包等技术的自研。中关村新型电池技术创新联盟秘书长、电池百人会理事长于清教向第一财经记者表示，电池供应商一家独大风险过高；其次随着市场空间的扩大，整车厂不想只给上游“打工”了，也试图去改变宁德时代的垄断局面和争夺相应的定价权。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"09866":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026832540,"gmtCreate":1653353034380,"gmtModify":1676535265971,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026832540","repostId":"2237366551","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2237366551","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653348675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237366551?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-24 07:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Snap plummeted nearly 30% after hours! CEO warns earnings will miss expectations and plans to slow hiring","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237366551","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"“阅后即焚”通信应用Snapchat母公司Snap CEOEvan Speigel周一在给员工的一份报告中警告称，该公司二季度将无法实现收入和调整后的收益目标。该公司股价闻讯在美股盘后暴跌近30%。　　Speigel称，该社交媒体公司也将在今年年底前放缓招聘，因希望管理开支。　　Snap 4月份公布的一季度财报不及华尔街预期。　　Spiegel表示，Snap将继续招聘新员工，但将在今年余下时间放慢招聘步伐。他仍预计Snap将在今年年底前雇佣500名新员工。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Evan Speigel, CEO of Snap, the parent company of \"read and burn\" communications app Snapchat, warned in a note to employees on Monday that the company will fail to meet revenue and adjusted earnings targets in the second quarter. The company's stock price plummeted nearly 30% after the U.S. stock market closed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27f342547eeac7599070c0d8f2a01ce9\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Speigel said that the social media company will also slow down hiring before the end of this year because it wants to manage expenses. Part of this letter has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).</p><p>Spiegel wrote: \"Today we filed an 8-K report indicating that the macro environment is deteriorating much faster than we expected when we issued our quarterly guidance last month. As a result, while our revenues continue to grow year-over-year, they are growing at a slower pace than we currently expect.\"</p><p>Snap's first-quarter earnings report in April fell short of Wall Street expectations. At the time, the company said it expected second-quarter revenue to grow 20% to 25% year-on-year, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to be between $0 and $50 million.</p><p>\"We believe we will report revenue and adjusted EBITDA below the low end of the guidance range,\" Spiegel wrote in an update Monday.</p><p>Spiegel said Snap will continue to hire new employees but will slow the pace of hiring for the rest of the year. He still expects Snap to hire 500 new employees by the end of the year. The company has employed about 2,000 people in the past 12 months.</p><p>Spiegel said the company is facing rising inflation and interest rates, supply chain shortages, labor disruptions and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Platform policy changes such as iPhone privacy features. The Russia-Ukraine conflict also has negative effects.</p><p>As of Monday's close, Snap shares have fallen more than 50% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has fallen 17% over the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f950e882674a02cf20f6eb2c6293771\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snap plummeted nearly 30% after hours! CEO warns earnings will miss expectations and plans to slow hiring</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnap plummeted nearly 30% after hours! CEO warns earnings will miss expectations and plans to slow hiring\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-24 07:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Evan Speigel, CEO of Snap, the parent company of \"read and burn\" communications app Snapchat, warned in a note to employees on Monday that the company will fail to meet revenue and adjusted earnings targets in the second quarter. The company's stock price plummeted nearly 30% after the U.S. stock market closed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27f342547eeac7599070c0d8f2a01ce9\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Speigel said that the social media company will also slow down hiring before the end of this year because it wants to manage expenses. Part of this letter has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).</p><p>Spiegel wrote: \"Today we filed an 8-K report indicating that the macro environment is deteriorating much faster than we expected when we issued our quarterly guidance last month. As a result, while our revenues continue to grow year-over-year, they are growing at a slower pace than we currently expect.\"</p><p>Snap's first-quarter earnings report in April fell short of Wall Street expectations. At the time, the company said it expected second-quarter revenue to grow 20% to 25% year-on-year, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to be between $0 and $50 million.</p><p>\"We believe we will report revenue and adjusted EBITDA below the low end of the guidance range,\" Spiegel wrote in an update Monday.</p><p>Spiegel said Snap will continue to hire new employees but will slow the pace of hiring for the rest of the year. He still expects Snap to hire 500 new employees by the end of the year. The company has employed about 2,000 people in the past 12 months.</p><p>Spiegel said the company is facing rising inflation and interest rates, supply chain shortages, labor disruptions and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Platform policy changes such as iPhone privacy features. The Russia-Ukraine conflict also has negative effects.</p><p>As of Monday's close, Snap shares have fallen more than 50% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has fallen 17% over the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f950e882674a02cf20f6eb2c6293771\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-24/doc-imizirau4427372.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69a4e4c29b9a3b2171a004f6fa3e490","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","AAPL":"苹果","BK4579":"人工智能","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4574":"无人驾驶","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4573":"虚拟现实",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-24/doc-imizirau4427372.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2237366551","content_text":"“阅后即焚”通信应用Snapchat母公司Snap CEO Evan Speigel周一在给员工的一份报告中警告称，该公司二季度将无法实现收入和调整后的收益目标。该公司股价闻讯在美股盘后暴跌近30%。Speigel称，该社交媒体公司也将在今年年底前放缓招聘，因希望管理开支。这封信的一部分已提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）。Spiegel写道：“今天我们提交了一份8-K报告，表明宏观环境恶化的速度比我们上个月发布季度指引时的预期要快得多。因此，虽然我们的收入继续同比增长，但增长速度比我们目前预期的要慢。”Snap 4月份公布的一季度财报不及华尔街预期。当时该公司表示，预计二季度收入将同比增长20%至25%，调整后税息折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）在0至5000万美元之间。Spiegel在周一的更新报告中写道：“我们认为，我们将报告的收入和调整后EBITDA会低于指导范围的低端。”Spiegel表示，Snap将继续招聘新员工，但将在今年余下时间放慢招聘步伐。他仍预计Snap将在今年年底前雇佣500名新员工。该公司在过去12个月内雇佣了约2000名员工。Spiegel称，该公司正面临着通胀和利率上升、供应链短缺、劳动力中断以及苹果iPhone隐私功能等平台政策变化。俄乌冲突也有负面影响。截至周一收盘，Snap股价今年迄今下跌超过50%，标普500指数同期下跌17%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":0.82,"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"AAPL":0.9,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026832845,"gmtCreate":1653353024987,"gmtModify":1676535265813,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026832845","repostId":"2237366551","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026009543,"gmtCreate":1653288035582,"gmtModify":1676535254441,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Risk and opportunity","listText":"Risk and opportunity","text":"Risk and opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026009543","repostId":"1126352915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026009217,"gmtCreate":1653288021939,"gmtModify":1676535254426,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Risk and opportunity","listText":"Risk and opportunity","text":"Risk and opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026009217","repostId":"1126352915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028166073,"gmtCreate":1653185383792,"gmtModify":1676535236334,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028166073","repostId":"1105761866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028168480,"gmtCreate":1653185363040,"gmtModify":1676535236326,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028168480","repostId":"1105761866","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105761866","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1653180050,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105761866?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-22 08:40","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Who was hurt by the thunder explosion in the currency circle? Beware of \"zero risk\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105761866","media":"券商中国","summary":"近日，加密货币LUNA币一夜归零事件震动币圈玩家。截至5月16日，被誉为虚拟币圈“茅台”的LUNA币已经跌至每枚0.0001972美元，而在4月5日，每枚LUNA币还标价119.18美元。高波动加杠杆","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, the cryptocurrency LUNA coin returned to zero overnight shocked players in the currency circle.</p><p>As of May 16, the LUNA coin, known as the \"Moutai\" in the virtual currency circle, has fallen to US $0.0001972 per coin, and on April 5, each LUNA coin was also priced at US $119.18. High volatility plus leverage is equal to explosives, and a large number of investors lose everything within a month.</p><p><b>This is the most dangerous thing in investment. Virtual currencies that lack intrinsic value support but are hyped by funds, poor-performing stocks, deeply out-of-the-money options, and \"old stocks\" in Hong Kong stocks... are all meat grinders for wealth. However, investors can't resist the temptation of the rapid rise in the prices of these assets with the nature of Ponzi schemes, and invest their wealth in these projects. Lack of cautious investment attitude or speculation that they think smart not only cause their wealth to vanish overnight, but even face the tragedy of family destruction.</b></p><p>\"Speculative events always end with a loud bang rather than a sob, and people will have the opportunity to see the repetition of this pattern.\" As John Kennedy Galbraith, author of A Brief History of Financial Mania, puts it, the crash never comes gently, and people desperately try to escape but largely fail.</p><p>According to the statistics of China Investment Xiaohongshu, 18 A-share stocks have been delisted since the beginning of this year, and their total market value at their peak in 2015 was as high as 200 billion yuan. Among them, 7 companies were involved in animation, insurance, mobile games and other outlets, and their market value exceeded 10 billion yuan.</p><p><b>At present, the total market value of these 18 delisted stocks is only 10 billion yuan, and most of them are in a state of scarce buying and limitless limit. After the wind stops, the market value of these stocks melting quickly like ice cream makes it inevitable that investors will be seriously injured even if they stop losses. What's more, many investors who are tempted by the wind to buy at high prices lack the ability to correct errors.</b></p><p><b>Returning to zero risk, the road to investment is unbearable</b></p><p>It is a very dangerous investment behavior for investors to follow the trend and buy only when they see the price soaring, without studying the value behind it. Cryptocurrencies, \"thousands of stocks\", \"doomsday wheels\", and \"outlet stocks\" are all attractive traps when prices rise sharply. Investors who can't help the temptation often face the tragedy of zero investment.</p><p>LUNA coin is not a special case.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>After the online drama \"Squid Game\" became popular on the Internet, a \"Squid Coin\" started a skyrocketing mode after its release. The highest increase in a week in early November 2021 was nearly 2,400 times, but then it collapsed and returned to zero overnight. At the same time, the website of the domain name The SquidGame Cash and the accounts set up by its creator on other social media disappeared out of thin air at the same time.</p><p><b>There is a website for dead cryptocurrencies overseas, also known as the cryptocurrency grave. According to the website, there have been 1,705 dead cryptocurrencies so far. High leverage and high volatility led to the instant annihilation of wealth. It is undoubtedly a luxury to be able to escape from the big crash. According to reports, due to the plunge of LUNA currency, the prices of other virtual currencies fell together. On May 12, there were nearly 400,000 people in the currency circle. People liquidated their positions.</b></p><p>In the past two decades or so, the \"old thousand stocks\" in Hong Kong stocks have been a veritable meat grinder for wealth. In fact, the game of \"old thousands of shares\" has not been a secret for many years, but what is puzzling is that there are still investors who go on and on. A common cheating routine in the Hong Kong stock market is to first use various news to tempt retail investors to enter the market, and then strangle retail investors by lowering the stock price, and then matching it with large discount allotment or rights issue, frequent shareholding and other means.</p><p>The \"old thousand stocks\" of Hong Kong stocks lack liquidity all the year round, and it is easy to buy but difficult to exit. A very small selling amount can smash individual stocks out of a \"deep pit\" of 30% to 50%. \"Lao Qianshu\" usually first comes with a surge of more than 100% to attract attention, and then cooperates with the release of good news. It's easy to buy but difficult to sell. Once tempted to get involved in \"cheating shares\", investors are subject to insufficient liquidity and difficult to exit. They can only watch the funds in their accounts become less and less in various means of \"cheating shares\" players.</p><p><b>Deeply out-of-the-money options, especially the \"doomsday wheel\", can be called killers on the road to wealth. Take Baosteel warrant, the first company listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in the non-tradable share reform in 2005, as an example. The warrant was listed at 1.263 yuan and delisted at 0.031 yuan. On the day of the \"doomsday round\", the warrant plummeted from 0.211 yuan to 0.031 yuan, a plunge of 85%. Deeply out-of-the-money options are themselves a piece of waste paper, becoming a gambling tool for speculators, and will inevitably eventually return to zero.</b></p><p>In addition, in the stock market, there are also significant risks in poor-performing stocks that have soared due to speculation. Statistics show that 18 stocks have been delisted this year. What is embarrassing is that the peak market value of these 18 companies was about 200 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02e9015f2948608ed49b1e30ada33886\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"869\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Once you participate in Bo Silly, don't imagine that you are not the last to take over</b></p><p>Whether it is cryptocurrency or the \"doomsday wheel\", in the speculative game, participants either don't realize what they are doing, or think that they are smart speculators. They will not be the last to take over and can exit the market before the bubble bursts.</p><p>Speculation is as old as a mountain, but it is difficult for its participants to get a good death. Even a professional speculator like Livermore ended up in poverty, physically and mentally exhausted, and committed suicide. As long as you don't leave the table, you can't say you have won. It is possible that one zeroing event will lead to all long-term speculative results returning to zero. Holding a torch through the explosive depot, repeatedly going to the cliff to see the scenery, and often walking at night, you will encounter major risk events sooner or later.</p><p>As in the tulip bubble of the 17th century, when the craze came to an end, the dominant rules came into play again. The awakened and the anxious began to get away, and no one knew why; Some people saw them sell and were anxious to sell, which caused panic; Prices ushered in a cliff-like drop. You know, a large part of those speculators still use loans to mortgage their property to buy tulips, that is, use leverage, and they face sudden property deprivation or even bankruptcy.</p><p>During the A-share earthquake in the summer of 2015, the same phenomenon could also be observed. A large number of poor-performing stocks that seriously lacked intrinsic value were fired to the sky, which was unsustainable in itself. In addition, over-the-counter funds were deleveraged. When the music stopped, a large amount of funds rushed out, but buying was rare and eventually turned into a cliff-like decline.</p><p><b>In the huge earthquake market in 2015, only value investors can remain calm, because the stocks they hold are supported by intrinsic value, and even if they encounter a short decline, they will eventually rebound again. Bo silly investors are involved in the alternate a vicious circle of deleveraging and individual stock decline.</b></p><p>Once investors participate in Bo Silly, don't imagine that they can escape cleverly before the bubble bursts. The greed of human nature made him struggle before the music stopped, but once the music stopped, the market immediately collapsed. Even Newton, who is extremely clever, lost 20,000 pounds during the South China Sea bubble because of repeated killing in and out. \"I can measure the movement of celestial bodies, but I can't measure how crazy human beings are\".</p><p>As John Kenneth Galbraith said, the inevitable market plunge in a speculative situation is not destined to come gently or gradually. When it arrives, it carries the ferocious face of disaster. This is because both groups of participants in speculation (those who don't know they are speculating and those who know they are speculating) will scramble to flee the market.</p><p>\"Although it is always controversial, it doesn't matter what ultimately triggers the reversal. Those who have been on the rising wave decide that this is the opportunity to get out. Those who think the market's growth will last forever find their illusions suddenly shattered, and they also respond to the new reality by selling or trying to sell. So the market crashed. \"</p><p>John Kenneth Galbraith said that speculative events always end with a loud bang rather than a sob. People will have the opportunity to see the frequent repetition of this pattern.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who was hurt by the thunder explosion in the currency circle? Beware of \"zero risk\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho was hurt by the thunder explosion in the currency circle? Beware of \"zero risk\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-22 08:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, the cryptocurrency LUNA coin returned to zero overnight shocked players in the currency circle.</p><p>As of May 16, the LUNA coin, known as the \"Moutai\" in the virtual currency circle, has fallen to US $0.0001972 per coin, and on April 5, each LUNA coin was also priced at US $119.18. High volatility plus leverage is equal to explosives, and a large number of investors lose everything within a month.</p><p><b>This is the most dangerous thing in investment. Virtual currencies that lack intrinsic value support but are hyped by funds, poor-performing stocks, deeply out-of-the-money options, and \"old stocks\" in Hong Kong stocks... are all meat grinders for wealth. However, investors can't resist the temptation of the rapid rise in the prices of these assets with the nature of Ponzi schemes, and invest their wealth in these projects. Lack of cautious investment attitude or speculation that they think smart not only cause their wealth to vanish overnight, but even face the tragedy of family destruction.</b></p><p>\"Speculative events always end with a loud bang rather than a sob, and people will have the opportunity to see the repetition of this pattern.\" As John Kennedy Galbraith, author of A Brief History of Financial Mania, puts it, the crash never comes gently, and people desperately try to escape but largely fail.</p><p>According to the statistics of China Investment Xiaohongshu, 18 A-share stocks have been delisted since the beginning of this year, and their total market value at their peak in 2015 was as high as 200 billion yuan. Among them, 7 companies were involved in animation, insurance, mobile games and other outlets, and their market value exceeded 10 billion yuan.</p><p><b>At present, the total market value of these 18 delisted stocks is only 10 billion yuan, and most of them are in a state of scarce buying and limitless limit. After the wind stops, the market value of these stocks melting quickly like ice cream makes it inevitable that investors will be seriously injured even if they stop losses. What's more, many investors who are tempted by the wind to buy at high prices lack the ability to correct errors.</b></p><p><b>Returning to zero risk, the road to investment is unbearable</b></p><p>It is a very dangerous investment behavior for investors to follow the trend and buy only when they see the price soaring, without studying the value behind it. Cryptocurrencies, \"thousands of stocks\", \"doomsday wheels\", and \"outlet stocks\" are all attractive traps when prices rise sharply. Investors who can't help the temptation often face the tragedy of zero investment.</p><p>LUNA coin is not a special case.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>After the online drama \"Squid Game\" became popular on the Internet, a \"Squid Coin\" started a skyrocketing mode after its release. The highest increase in a week in early November 2021 was nearly 2,400 times, but then it collapsed and returned to zero overnight. At the same time, the website of the domain name The SquidGame Cash and the accounts set up by its creator on other social media disappeared out of thin air at the same time.</p><p><b>There is a website for dead cryptocurrencies overseas, also known as the cryptocurrency grave. According to the website, there have been 1,705 dead cryptocurrencies so far. High leverage and high volatility led to the instant annihilation of wealth. It is undoubtedly a luxury to be able to escape from the big crash. According to reports, due to the plunge of LUNA currency, the prices of other virtual currencies fell together. On May 12, there were nearly 400,000 people in the currency circle. People liquidated their positions.</b></p><p>In the past two decades or so, the \"old thousand stocks\" in Hong Kong stocks have been a veritable meat grinder for wealth. In fact, the game of \"old thousands of shares\" has not been a secret for many years, but what is puzzling is that there are still investors who go on and on. A common cheating routine in the Hong Kong stock market is to first use various news to tempt retail investors to enter the market, and then strangle retail investors by lowering the stock price, and then matching it with large discount allotment or rights issue, frequent shareholding and other means.</p><p>The \"old thousand stocks\" of Hong Kong stocks lack liquidity all the year round, and it is easy to buy but difficult to exit. A very small selling amount can smash individual stocks out of a \"deep pit\" of 30% to 50%. \"Lao Qianshu\" usually first comes with a surge of more than 100% to attract attention, and then cooperates with the release of good news. It's easy to buy but difficult to sell. Once tempted to get involved in \"cheating shares\", investors are subject to insufficient liquidity and difficult to exit. They can only watch the funds in their accounts become less and less in various means of \"cheating shares\" players.</p><p><b>Deeply out-of-the-money options, especially the \"doomsday wheel\", can be called killers on the road to wealth. Take Baosteel warrant, the first company listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in the non-tradable share reform in 2005, as an example. The warrant was listed at 1.263 yuan and delisted at 0.031 yuan. On the day of the \"doomsday round\", the warrant plummeted from 0.211 yuan to 0.031 yuan, a plunge of 85%. Deeply out-of-the-money options are themselves a piece of waste paper, becoming a gambling tool for speculators, and will inevitably eventually return to zero.</b></p><p>In addition, in the stock market, there are also significant risks in poor-performing stocks that have soared due to speculation. Statistics show that 18 stocks have been delisted this year. What is embarrassing is that the peak market value of these 18 companies was about 200 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02e9015f2948608ed49b1e30ada33886\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"869\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Once you participate in Bo Silly, don't imagine that you are not the last to take over</b></p><p>Whether it is cryptocurrency or the \"doomsday wheel\", in the speculative game, participants either don't realize what they are doing, or think that they are smart speculators. They will not be the last to take over and can exit the market before the bubble bursts.</p><p>Speculation is as old as a mountain, but it is difficult for its participants to get a good death. Even a professional speculator like Livermore ended up in poverty, physically and mentally exhausted, and committed suicide. As long as you don't leave the table, you can't say you have won. It is possible that one zeroing event will lead to all long-term speculative results returning to zero. Holding a torch through the explosive depot, repeatedly going to the cliff to see the scenery, and often walking at night, you will encounter major risk events sooner or later.</p><p>As in the tulip bubble of the 17th century, when the craze came to an end, the dominant rules came into play again. The awakened and the anxious began to get away, and no one knew why; Some people saw them sell and were anxious to sell, which caused panic; Prices ushered in a cliff-like drop. You know, a large part of those speculators still use loans to mortgage their property to buy tulips, that is, use leverage, and they face sudden property deprivation or even bankruptcy.</p><p>During the A-share earthquake in the summer of 2015, the same phenomenon could also be observed. A large number of poor-performing stocks that seriously lacked intrinsic value were fired to the sky, which was unsustainable in itself. In addition, over-the-counter funds were deleveraged. When the music stopped, a large amount of funds rushed out, but buying was rare and eventually turned into a cliff-like decline.</p><p><b>In the huge earthquake market in 2015, only value investors can remain calm, because the stocks they hold are supported by intrinsic value, and even if they encounter a short decline, they will eventually rebound again. Bo silly investors are involved in the alternate a vicious circle of deleveraging and individual stock decline.</b></p><p>Once investors participate in Bo Silly, don't imagine that they can escape cleverly before the bubble bursts. The greed of human nature made him struggle before the music stopped, but once the music stopped, the market immediately collapsed. Even Newton, who is extremely clever, lost 20,000 pounds during the South China Sea bubble because of repeated killing in and out. \"I can measure the movement of celestial bodies, but I can't measure how crazy human beings are\".</p><p>As John Kenneth Galbraith said, the inevitable market plunge in a speculative situation is not destined to come gently or gradually. When it arrives, it carries the ferocious face of disaster. This is because both groups of participants in speculation (those who don't know they are speculating and those who know they are speculating) will scramble to flee the market.</p><p>\"Although it is always controversial, it doesn't matter what ultimately triggers the reversal. Those who have been on the rising wave decide that this is the opportunity to get out. Those who think the market's growth will last forever find their illusions suddenly shattered, and they also respond to the new reality by selling or trying to sell. So the market crashed. \"</p><p>John Kenneth Galbraith said that speculative events always end with a loud bang rather than a sob. People will have the opportunity to see the frequent repetition of this pattern.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f295885fdbb289f10fd42d43b2f5e911","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105761866","content_text":"近日，加密货币LUNA币一夜归零事件震动币圈玩家。截至5月16日，被誉为虚拟币圈“茅台”的LUNA币已经跌至每枚0.0001972美元，而在4月5日，每枚LUNA币还标价119.18美元。高波动加杠杆等于炸药，大量投资者一个月内亏到血本无归。这正是投资中最危险的事情，缺乏内在价值支撑但被资金爆炒的虚拟币、绩差股、深度虚值的期权、港股中的“老千股”……都是财富的绞肉机。但投资者禁不住这些带有庞氏骗局性质资产价格快速上涨的引诱，把自己的财富投入这些项目上，缺乏谨慎的投资态度或者自认为聪明的投机不仅造成财富一夜之间化为乌有，甚至还面临家破人亡的悲剧。“投机事件总是以一声巨响而非一声抽泣告终，人们将有机会看到这一规律的重复。”正如《金融狂热简史》作者约翰﹒肯尼迪﹒加尔布雷斯所说，大崩盘永远不会温柔地到来，人们拼命想逃离但基本上失效。券商中国·投资小红书的统计数据显示，今年以来A股已有18只股票退市，它们在2015年巅峰时期的市值合计高达2000亿元，其中7家公司当时因为沾上了动漫、保险、手游等风口而被资金爆炒市值曾超过100亿元。目前这18只退市个股的市值合计仅为100亿元，且大多数处在买盘稀少无量跌停状态。风停之后，这些个股如雪糕般快速融化的市值让投资者即使止损也难免会严重受伤，更何况很多受到风口诱惑高位买入的投资者本身就缺少纠错能力。归零风险，投资之路不能承受之重投资者只看到价格暴涨就跟风买入，而不细究背后价值几何是非常危险的投资行为。加密货币、“老千股”、“末日轮”、“ 风口股”，价格大涨时都是诱人的陷阱，禁不住诱惑的投资者往往面临投资归零的悲剧。LUNA币并非特例。奈飞的网剧《鱿鱼游戏》全网爆红后，一款“鱿鱼币”发布后开启暴涨模式，2021年11月初的一周最高涨幅近2400倍，但随后轰然倒塌，一夜归零。同时，域名The SquidGame Cash的网站与其创建者建立在其他社交媒体的账号同时凭空消失。海外有一个死亡加密货币的网站，也被称为加密货币坟墓。据该网站统计，迄今已有1705个死亡的加密货币。高杠杆叠加高波动导致了财富的瞬间灰飞烟灭，大崩盘之下能够逃出生天无疑是奢求，据报道，由于LUNA币暴跌带动其他虚拟币价格一起下跌，5月12日，币圈就有将近40万人爆仓。在过去二十多年中，港股中的“老千股”是名副其实的财富绞肉机。“老千股”的玩法其实多年来并非秘密，但令人费解的是，依然有投资者前赴后继飞蛾扑火。港股市场上常见的出老千套路是，先用各种消息诱惑散户进场，之后通过压低股价，再配以大折价配股或供股、频繁合股等手段，绞杀散户。港股“老千股”常年缺少流动性，买入容易退出难，极少的卖出金额就能将个股砸出百分之三五十“深坑”。“老千股”通常先来个超过100%的暴涨吸引眼球，然后配合释放利好消息。买入容易卖出难，一旦受到诱惑沾上“老千股”，投资者就受制于流动性不足难以退出，只能眼睁睁看着自己账户中的资金在“老千股”玩家翻云覆雨的各种手段中越来越少。深度虚值的期权，尤其是“末日轮”堪称财富路上的杀手。以2005年股权分置改革中首只在上交所挂牌的宝钢权证为例，该权证挂牌于1.263元，摘牌于0.031元，在“末日轮”的当天，该权证从0.211元暴跌至0.031元，暴跌85%。深度虚值的期权本身就是一张废纸，成为投机者们赌博的工具，难免终将归零。此外，在股票市场上，爆炒遇到风口而大涨的绩差股也存在重大风险。统计数据显示，今年以来已有18只股票退市。令人唏嘘的是，这18家公司市值高峰时期约为2000亿元。一旦参与博傻，就不要幻想自己不是最后接棒者无论是加密货币还是“末日轮”，在投机游戏中，参与者们要么意识不到自己在做什么，要么认为自己是在聪明的投机不会是最后的接棒者，在泡沫破裂之前可以退出市场。投机像山岳一样古老，但其中参与者很难得到善终，即使利弗莫尔这样的职业投机高手，最后一样落到穷困潦倒、身心俱疲，自杀身亡的悲惨结局。只要不离开牌桌，就不能说自己赢了。可能一次归零事件，就会导致长期的投机成果全部归零。举着火把穿过炸药库，屡屡到悬崖上看风景，常走夜路，迟早会碰到重大风险事件。就如17世纪的郁金香泡沫中，当热潮走向尾声，主导规则再次起了作用。已经醒悟的人和焦虑不安的人开始脱身，没有人知道其中的原因；一些人看到他们脱手，也着急出售，由此引发了恐慌；价格迎来断崖式跌落。要知道那些投机者中的一大部分还是用抵押财产的贷款购买郁金香的，也就是利用杠杆，他们面临突如其来的财产剥夺甚至破产。2015年夏天A股巨震时，也能观察到同样的现象，大量严重缺乏内在价值的绩差股被爆炒到天际，本身就不可持续，外加场外资金去杠杆，音乐停止时，大量资金夺门而出，但买盘罕见，最终演变为断崖式的下跌。在2015年巨震行情中，能够保持淡定的唯有价值投资者，因为他们持有的股票有内在价值支撑，即使遭遇短暂下跌，最终还会再反弹回来。而博傻投资者则卷入了去杠杆与个股下跌的交替恶性循环中。投资者一旦参与了博傻，就不要幻想自己能在泡沫破裂之前聪明逃脱。人性的贪婪让他在音乐停止之前苦苦恋战，但音乐一旦停止，市场马上进入崩溃状态。即使聪明绝顶的牛顿，在南海泡沫期间也因为反复杀进杀出损失了2万英镑，“我可以测出天体的运动，但我测不出人类有多疯狂”。就如约翰·肯尼思·加尔布雷斯所说，投机局面下市场最终会出现不可避免的暴跌，这种境况注定不会温和地来临或者逐步来临。当它到来时，它带有灾难的狰狞面孔。这是因为投机的两组参与者（不知自己在投机者和知道自己在投机者）都会争先恐后地逃离市场。“尽管总是备受争议，但最终触发反转的原因到底是什么并不重要。那些一直在上升浪潮中的人认定此时就是脱身的机会。那些认为市场的增长会永远持续的人发觉他们的幻想突然破灭了，他们也通过抛售或试图抛售来应对新的现实。于是市场崩溃。”约翰·肯尼思·加尔布雷斯说，投机事件总是以一声巨响而非一声抽泣告终。人们将有机会看到这一规律的频繁重复。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021622390,"gmtCreate":1653049612610,"gmtModify":1676535214416,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021622390","repostId":"2236009774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236009774","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653043031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236009774?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 18:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Has the \"sanctions order\" been overhead? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236009774","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在经历欧美广泛的制裁后，俄罗斯石油生产正在企稳，显示出稳定复苏的迹象。克里姆林宫最高能源官员兼副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克周四表示，继4月下降100万桶/日后，俄罗斯石油产量已开始恢复，5月产量增加20—3","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Russian oil production is stabilizing after widespread sanctions from Europe and the United States, showing signs of a steady recovery.</p><p>The Kremlin's top energy official and deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that Russian oil production has begun to recover after a decline of 1 million barrels per day in April, with production increasing by 200,000-300,000 barrels per day in May and expected to be further recovered in June.</p><p>Although the EU has not yet reached an agreement on the phased implementation of an oil embargo against Russia, the main<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Companies have stopped buying oil from Russia on their own.</p><p>But this does not mean that exports to Europe are completely interrupted. Novak said Thursday that Russian oil producers have exported oil to other markets and then redirected to European markets. It also said that about half of Gazprom's foreign customers open accounts to meet the country's payment requirements in rubles.</p><p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously predicted that Russia's oil revenue would grow by 50% this year despite the boycott. The EU remained Russia's largest export market in April, accounting for 43% of Russia's total exports. After falling in March when the first batch of Western sanctions against Russia came into effect, Russian exports rebounded in April, increasing by 620,000 barrels per day to 8.1 million barrels per day, close to the level before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Among them, exports to the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom decreased by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day, while exports to India and Turkey increased by 730,000 barrels per day and 180,000 barrels per day respectively.</p><p>The Russian Ministry of Economy predicts that despite the short-term stabilization of oil production, Russia's energy production will still decline this year. The production of oil and petroleum products is expected to decline by 9.3% in 2022, and the production of natural gas is expected to decline by 5.6%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Has the \"sanctions order\" been overhead? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHas the \"sanctions order\" been overhead? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-20 18:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Russian oil production is stabilizing after widespread sanctions from Europe and the United States, showing signs of a steady recovery.</p><p>The Kremlin's top energy official and deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that Russian oil production has begun to recover after a decline of 1 million barrels per day in April, with production increasing by 200,000-300,000 barrels per day in May and expected to be further recovered in June.</p><p>Although the EU has not yet reached an agreement on the phased implementation of an oil embargo against Russia, the main<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Companies have stopped buying oil from Russia on their own.</p><p>But this does not mean that exports to Europe are completely interrupted. Novak said Thursday that Russian oil producers have exported oil to other markets and then redirected to European markets. It also said that about half of Gazprom's foreign customers open accounts to meet the country's payment requirements in rubles.</p><p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously predicted that Russia's oil revenue would grow by 50% this year despite the boycott. The EU remained Russia's largest export market in April, accounting for 43% of Russia's total exports. After falling in March when the first batch of Western sanctions against Russia came into effect, Russian exports rebounded in April, increasing by 620,000 barrels per day to 8.1 million barrels per day, close to the level before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Among them, exports to the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom decreased by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day, while exports to India and Turkey increased by 730,000 barrels per day and 180,000 barrels per day respectively.</p><p>The Russian Ministry of Economy predicts that despite the short-term stabilization of oil production, Russia's energy production will still decline this year. The production of oil and petroleum products is expected to decline by 9.3% in 2022, and the production of natural gas is expected to decline by 5.6%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659919\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{"BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659919","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236009774","content_text":"在经历欧美广泛的制裁后，俄罗斯石油生产正在企稳，显示出稳定复苏的迹象。克里姆林宫最高能源官员兼副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克周四表示，继4月下降100万桶/日后，俄罗斯石油产量已开始恢复，5月产量增加20—30万桶/日，预计6月将进一步复苏。虽然欧盟尚未就对俄分阶段实施石油禁运达成协议，但主要西方石油公司已停止自行从俄罗斯购买石油。但这并不意味着对欧出口完全中断。诺瓦克周四表示，俄罗斯石油生产商已经将石油出口到其他市场，然后重新转向欧洲市场。其同时表示，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司大约一半的外国客户开立账户是为了满足该国以卢布支付的要求。国际能源署（IEA）此前预测认为，尽管遭到抵制，俄罗斯今年的石油收入仍将增长50%。欧盟仍是俄罗斯4月最大的出口市场，占俄出口总额的43%。在西方首批对俄制裁生效的3月下降后，4月俄罗斯出口量反弹，增长62万桶/日至810万桶/日，接近俄乌冲突前水平。其中对欧盟、美国和英国的出口量减少约120万桶/日，对印度和土耳其的出口量分别增长73万桶/日和18万桶/日。俄罗斯经济部预计，尽管石油产量短线企稳，俄罗斯今年全年能源产量仍将下降，预计2022年石油和石油产品的产量将下降9.3%，天然气产量预计将下降5.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UCO":1,"DWTIF":0.6,"SCO":1,"UWTIF":1,"USO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021622001,"gmtCreate":1653049589003,"gmtModify":1676535214393,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021622001","repostId":"2236009774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236009774","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653043031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236009774?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 18:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Has the \"sanctions order\" been overhead? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236009774","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在经历欧美广泛的制裁后，俄罗斯石油生产正在企稳，显示出稳定复苏的迹象。克里姆林宫最高能源官员兼副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克周四表示，继4月下降100万桶/日后，俄罗斯石油产量已开始恢复，5月产量增加20—3","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Russian oil production is stabilizing after widespread sanctions from Europe and the United States, showing signs of a steady recovery.</p><p>The Kremlin's top energy official and deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that Russian oil production has begun to recover after a decline of 1 million barrels per day in April, with production increasing by 200,000-300,000 barrels per day in May and expected to be further recovered in June.</p><p>Although the EU has not yet reached an agreement on the phased implementation of an oil embargo against Russia, the main<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Companies have stopped buying oil from Russia on their own.</p><p>But this does not mean that exports to Europe are completely interrupted. Novak said Thursday that Russian oil producers have exported oil to other markets and then redirected to European markets. It also said that about half of Gazprom's foreign customers open accounts to meet the country's payment requirements in rubles.</p><p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously predicted that Russia's oil revenue would grow by 50% this year despite the boycott. The EU remained Russia's largest export market in April, accounting for 43% of Russia's total exports. After falling in March when the first batch of Western sanctions against Russia came into effect, Russian exports rebounded in April, increasing by 620,000 barrels per day to 8.1 million barrels per day, close to the level before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Among them, exports to the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom decreased by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day, while exports to India and Turkey increased by 730,000 barrels per day and 180,000 barrels per day respectively.</p><p>The Russian Ministry of Economy predicts that despite the short-term stabilization of oil production, Russia's energy production will still decline this year. The production of oil and petroleum products is expected to decline by 9.3% in 2022, and the production of natural gas is expected to decline by 5.6%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Has the \"sanctions order\" been overhead? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHas the \"sanctions order\" been overhead? Russian crude oil production is rebounding rapidly\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-20 18:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Russian oil production is stabilizing after widespread sanctions from Europe and the United States, showing signs of a steady recovery.</p><p>The Kremlin's top energy official and deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that Russian oil production has begun to recover after a decline of 1 million barrels per day in April, with production increasing by 200,000-300,000 barrels per day in May and expected to be further recovered in June.</p><p>Although the EU has not yet reached an agreement on the phased implementation of an oil embargo against Russia, the main<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Companies have stopped buying oil from Russia on their own.</p><p>But this does not mean that exports to Europe are completely interrupted. Novak said Thursday that Russian oil producers have exported oil to other markets and then redirected to European markets. It also said that about half of Gazprom's foreign customers open accounts to meet the country's payment requirements in rubles.</p><p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously predicted that Russia's oil revenue would grow by 50% this year despite the boycott. The EU remained Russia's largest export market in April, accounting for 43% of Russia's total exports. After falling in March when the first batch of Western sanctions against Russia came into effect, Russian exports rebounded in April, increasing by 620,000 barrels per day to 8.1 million barrels per day, close to the level before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Among them, exports to the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom decreased by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day, while exports to India and Turkey increased by 730,000 barrels per day and 180,000 barrels per day respectively.</p><p>The Russian Ministry of Economy predicts that despite the short-term stabilization of oil production, Russia's energy production will still decline this year. The production of oil and petroleum products is expected to decline by 9.3% in 2022, and the production of natural gas is expected to decline by 5.6%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659919\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{"BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659919","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236009774","content_text":"在经历欧美广泛的制裁后，俄罗斯石油生产正在企稳，显示出稳定复苏的迹象。克里姆林宫最高能源官员兼副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克周四表示，继4月下降100万桶/日后，俄罗斯石油产量已开始恢复，5月产量增加20—30万桶/日，预计6月将进一步复苏。虽然欧盟尚未就对俄分阶段实施石油禁运达成协议，但主要西方石油公司已停止自行从俄罗斯购买石油。但这并不意味着对欧出口完全中断。诺瓦克周四表示，俄罗斯石油生产商已经将石油出口到其他市场，然后重新转向欧洲市场。其同时表示，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司大约一半的外国客户开立账户是为了满足该国以卢布支付的要求。国际能源署（IEA）此前预测认为，尽管遭到抵制，俄罗斯今年的石油收入仍将增长50%。欧盟仍是俄罗斯4月最大的出口市场，占俄出口总额的43%。在西方首批对俄制裁生效的3月下降后，4月俄罗斯出口量反弹，增长62万桶/日至810万桶/日，接近俄乌冲突前水平。其中对欧盟、美国和英国的出口量减少约120万桶/日，对印度和土耳其的出口量分别增长73万桶/日和18万桶/日。俄罗斯经济部预计，尽管石油产量短线企稳，俄罗斯今年全年能源产量仍将下降，预计2022年石油和石油产品的产量将下降9.3%，天然气产量预计将下降5.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UCO":1,"DWTIF":0.6,"SCO":1,"UWTIF":1,"USO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063734054,"gmtCreate":1651534774688,"gmtModify":1676534920219,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063734054","repostId":"1191873408","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191873408","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651503299,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191873408?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-02 22:54","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | How to find the ideal trading entry position?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191873408","media":"交易员说","summary":"理想的交易入场位可以使得止损位设置的更加合理，同时也能带来巨大的风险回报比。不过，说起来容易做起来难啊！尽管这些“完美”的交易设置可能并不常见，但这并不意味着它们“难以”被发现。如果你寻找的方法得当，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The ideal trading entry position can make the stop loss position more reasonable, and at the same time, it can also bring a huge risk-reward ratio. However, it is easier said than done!</p><p>Although these \"perfect\" trading setups may not be common, that doesn't mean they're \"hard\" to spot. If you look for the right method, you can lock in such an ideal entry position and create a better start for trading.</p><p>Basically, million-dollar trader Nial Fuller said that there are three steps to find the ideal entry point.</p><p><b>Three keys to finding the \"perfect\" trade entry:</b></p><p>First of all, the easiest way is to look for any obvious price action trading signals on the daily chart because I personally prefer daily chart framework trading. Remember,<b>Only look for \"obvious\" signals and patterns, and if they are the ones you are very familiar with.</b></p><p>Then you need to look for the trading convergence factors that support these signals on the trading chart. For example, if a signal can be consistent with other key price levels, or it is formed after a pullback/retracement in the trend, it is considered to be supporting information.</p><p>Essentially, if you want to find the \"perfect trading entry point\", you need to list as many factors as possible that support the signal.</p><p><i><b>1. Find signals, patterns, and levels to trade.</b></i></p><p><i>It's a bit simple and straightforward, but it's also a skill to develop and refine. In this article, we will use the pin bar entry signal and the Tailed bar entry signal.</i></p><p><i><b>2. Look for entry \"filters\" and confluence factors, as well as factors that support trading signals.</b></i></p><p><i>Examples are strong trends, key horizontal support and resistance levels, 50% swing pullback/retracement levels, event zones, and moving averages.</i></p><p><i><b>3. Admission position adjustment and skills</b></i><i>。</i></p><p><i>For example, 50% of the signal candlestick itself adjusts the pullback/retracement entry, or simply considers the nearby key levels to obtain a better entry point, so that you can set a more reasonable stop loss level and a wider take profit space.</i></p><p><b>I do these things every day in order to find that ideal place</b></p><p>After waking up, eating a healthy and nutritious breakfast and doing some fitness exercise, I started sitting in front of my computer and watching what was going on during the New York trading session. Of course, this was because I lived in Australia myself and woke up when the New York market of the previous day just closed. I would look at forex, stock indexes, major commodity markets and see what happened before and what they would do next for Asian and European markets.</p><p>My goal is to quickly browse whether there are obvious signals or patterns in the frequently traded market. If I find something, I will follow the second step above to see if I can find the market structure supporting this trading information, etc., and at the same time judge whether this opportunity is really worth trading. After all, not every signal found is suitable for trading.</p><p><b>If a trading signal does not have a support confluence, then I probably won't trade it.</b>Of course, if a signal worth trading is locked, I will begin to judge whether it meets my trading criteria. If so, I will further study the plan, such as how to better enter the market, how to set a stop loss, and when to exit.</p><p><b>Let's look at some cases:</b></p><p><b>Example 1:</b></p><p>In the EUR/USD daily chart below, we can see an obvious pin bar short signal. It seems that there are many confluence factors behind this signal to support him. This we will discuss in the next picture. At present, it is noted that its lower shadow line is clearly prominent, which means that the price has experienced a big reversal in this area, as well as strong resistance, and suggests that the price may continue to fall in the next few days. This pin bar signal fits the concept of \"obvious\" and can be seen at a glance:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbcf8fafbc04a649633e4ccad7114744\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the chart below, we take a look at what \"evidence\" is supporting this pin bar signal. In this case, there is absolutely enough evidence to warrant the entry trade. As shown in the chart below, the market is in a multi-month downtrend, and a signal has formed near the key resistance zone, which itself carries distinct character. In my opinion, these can be used as supporting information for it. Next, set up the transaction directly and wait for the market to trigger the setting. After that, you can go to a movie and relax. Don't stare at the disk after entering the market and starting trading:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e16b662f6791579d6294a1810883ff\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Next, we zoom in on the pin bar view. We are now focusing on the adjustment of entry position and seeing if it can improve the risk-reward potential. Please note that in this trade we could have entered near the 50% pullback/retracement bit of the pin bar to greatly improve the risk-reward ratio. However, you can still enter somewhere below that 50% pullback/retracement. In fact, it is relatively better to enter the market at the position where the pin bar is close to 50% of the pullback/retracement position. We need to flexibly set the entry closer to this position. The approximate profit target is 3 to 4 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca0da3b3f4abef2d4814fd0fcfec7201\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Example 2:</b></p><p>Below is the 200-day chart of the Australian Stock Index SPI. Take a look at this image and you will be noticed by the eye-catching pin bar on the chart. It is clearly consistent with the levels on the daily chart. Then the upper shadow of this pin bar is very prominent, suggesting that the price will reverse sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b82dc8f7cf47fa97af9e06fe3f3a8be\" tg-width=\"867\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The chart below switches to the weekly chart. Typically, when a trading signal is found on a daily or 4-hour chart, I examine the weekly chart to see how the signal makes sense in the context of a long-term time frame, or if it makes sense.</p><p>In this case, the formation of the pin bar of the upper daily chart presents a very strong critical resistance zone/event area on the weekly chart, as shown in the following chart. It is also consistent with the downtrend on the daily and weekly charts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb1453a971e66017e5dd53f078a9959\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, we amplify the pin bar signal on the daily chart. Note that there is no pullback/retracement/entry correction here, but the trade still has a potential profit of 2x as the next support will appear at a very low price, as shown in the chart below. Trades like this formed in key levels/event areas, coupled with the consistent trend, so it is certain that this is a worthy signal to trade, which may herald a wave of rapid and large price movements:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5520c5f8e94866cba0c8188482deef\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Example 3:</b></p><p>In this example, we will see several bearish tailed bar signals formed on the crude oil daily chart (tailed bar refers to a candlestick with a tail (hatch), and the length of the hatch is longer than the candlestick body). You can look out for a very strong downtrend that has formed, and these bearish candlestick signals are just to form below and close above the key resistance level after the price breaks through it. These signals may not be as obvious as in the examples above, but given the forces behind the market bears, it is not difficult for experienced traders to spot them:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1809c5c61b740bbd170f25c96cc18282\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Once we zoom out of the chart view, we can clearly see the signal candlestick size, as well as the trends forming. These strong support confluence factors make this trade easily profitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f184c397b415eddfbfeebb3dba0ed3\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Amplifying the signal on the daily chart, we can see that even if the stop loss is just above (and above) the first tailed bar high, there is still a huge potential risk-reward for this trade, because the market is indeed in a \"runaway trend\", and the trend is very strong. These types of trends are best suited for appending positions as a way to make huge profits. Please note that you can easily make 5x your profit in just one position here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b24f6290e32ea9b018e1485bc9dfad2\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>One of the main contents of this article is,<b>The best trades are supported by multiple confluence factors.</b>In all of the above examples, the trend is very clear and signals are forming at key levels. Once you know and understand what you are looking for, everything falls into place. However, these take some training, time, and cultivating intuition to truly acquire.</p><p>I want you to remember that the \"intersection\" of signals and levels or signals and trends you are looking for, or even just the \"intersection\" of levels and trends, trade like a sniper, and on the premise of doing your homework, choose those valuable trades to make. All of this will be easier once you understand how to read the \"money footprint,\" i.e. price action, on a chart.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1603977621793","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | How to find the ideal trading entry position?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | How to find the ideal trading entry position?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">交易员说</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-02 22:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The ideal trading entry position can make the stop loss position more reasonable, and at the same time, it can also bring a huge risk-reward ratio. However, it is easier said than done!</p><p>Although these \"perfect\" trading setups may not be common, that doesn't mean they're \"hard\" to spot. If you look for the right method, you can lock in such an ideal entry position and create a better start for trading.</p><p>Basically, million-dollar trader Nial Fuller said that there are three steps to find the ideal entry point.</p><p><b>Three keys to finding the \"perfect\" trade entry:</b></p><p>First of all, the easiest way is to look for any obvious price action trading signals on the daily chart because I personally prefer daily chart framework trading. Remember,<b>Only look for \"obvious\" signals and patterns, and if they are the ones you are very familiar with.</b></p><p>Then you need to look for the trading convergence factors that support these signals on the trading chart. For example, if a signal can be consistent with other key price levels, or it is formed after a pullback/retracement in the trend, it is considered to be supporting information.</p><p>Essentially, if you want to find the \"perfect trading entry point\", you need to list as many factors as possible that support the signal.</p><p><i><b>1. Find signals, patterns, and levels to trade.</b></i></p><p><i>It's a bit simple and straightforward, but it's also a skill to develop and refine. In this article, we will use the pin bar entry signal and the Tailed bar entry signal.</i></p><p><i><b>2. Look for entry \"filters\" and confluence factors, as well as factors that support trading signals.</b></i></p><p><i>Examples are strong trends, key horizontal support and resistance levels, 50% swing pullback/retracement levels, event zones, and moving averages.</i></p><p><i><b>3. Admission position adjustment and skills</b></i><i>。</i></p><p><i>For example, 50% of the signal candlestick itself adjusts the pullback/retracement entry, or simply considers the nearby key levels to obtain a better entry point, so that you can set a more reasonable stop loss level and a wider take profit space.</i></p><p><b>I do these things every day in order to find that ideal place</b></p><p>After waking up, eating a healthy and nutritious breakfast and doing some fitness exercise, I started sitting in front of my computer and watching what was going on during the New York trading session. Of course, this was because I lived in Australia myself and woke up when the New York market of the previous day just closed. I would look at forex, stock indexes, major commodity markets and see what happened before and what they would do next for Asian and European markets.</p><p>My goal is to quickly browse whether there are obvious signals or patterns in the frequently traded market. If I find something, I will follow the second step above to see if I can find the market structure supporting this trading information, etc., and at the same time judge whether this opportunity is really worth trading. After all, not every signal found is suitable for trading.</p><p><b>If a trading signal does not have a support confluence, then I probably won't trade it.</b>Of course, if a signal worth trading is locked, I will begin to judge whether it meets my trading criteria. If so, I will further study the plan, such as how to better enter the market, how to set a stop loss, and when to exit.</p><p><b>Let's look at some cases:</b></p><p><b>Example 1:</b></p><p>In the EUR/USD daily chart below, we can see an obvious pin bar short signal. It seems that there are many confluence factors behind this signal to support him. This we will discuss in the next picture. At present, it is noted that its lower shadow line is clearly prominent, which means that the price has experienced a big reversal in this area, as well as strong resistance, and suggests that the price may continue to fall in the next few days. This pin bar signal fits the concept of \"obvious\" and can be seen at a glance:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbcf8fafbc04a649633e4ccad7114744\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the chart below, we take a look at what \"evidence\" is supporting this pin bar signal. In this case, there is absolutely enough evidence to warrant the entry trade. As shown in the chart below, the market is in a multi-month downtrend, and a signal has formed near the key resistance zone, which itself carries distinct character. In my opinion, these can be used as supporting information for it. Next, set up the transaction directly and wait for the market to trigger the setting. After that, you can go to a movie and relax. Don't stare at the disk after entering the market and starting trading:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e16b662f6791579d6294a1810883ff\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Next, we zoom in on the pin bar view. We are now focusing on the adjustment of entry position and seeing if it can improve the risk-reward potential. Please note that in this trade we could have entered near the 50% pullback/retracement bit of the pin bar to greatly improve the risk-reward ratio. However, you can still enter somewhere below that 50% pullback/retracement. In fact, it is relatively better to enter the market at the position where the pin bar is close to 50% of the pullback/retracement position. We need to flexibly set the entry closer to this position. The approximate profit target is 3 to 4 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca0da3b3f4abef2d4814fd0fcfec7201\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Example 2:</b></p><p>Below is the 200-day chart of the Australian Stock Index SPI. Take a look at this image and you will be noticed by the eye-catching pin bar on the chart. It is clearly consistent with the levels on the daily chart. Then the upper shadow of this pin bar is very prominent, suggesting that the price will reverse sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b82dc8f7cf47fa97af9e06fe3f3a8be\" tg-width=\"867\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The chart below switches to the weekly chart. Typically, when a trading signal is found on a daily or 4-hour chart, I examine the weekly chart to see how the signal makes sense in the context of a long-term time frame, or if it makes sense.</p><p>In this case, the formation of the pin bar of the upper daily chart presents a very strong critical resistance zone/event area on the weekly chart, as shown in the following chart. It is also consistent with the downtrend on the daily and weekly charts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb1453a971e66017e5dd53f078a9959\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, we amplify the pin bar signal on the daily chart. Note that there is no pullback/retracement/entry correction here, but the trade still has a potential profit of 2x as the next support will appear at a very low price, as shown in the chart below. Trades like this formed in key levels/event areas, coupled with the consistent trend, so it is certain that this is a worthy signal to trade, which may herald a wave of rapid and large price movements:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5520c5f8e94866cba0c8188482deef\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Example 3:</b></p><p>In this example, we will see several bearish tailed bar signals formed on the crude oil daily chart (tailed bar refers to a candlestick with a tail (hatch), and the length of the hatch is longer than the candlestick body). You can look out for a very strong downtrend that has formed, and these bearish candlestick signals are just to form below and close above the key resistance level after the price breaks through it. These signals may not be as obvious as in the examples above, but given the forces behind the market bears, it is not difficult for experienced traders to spot them:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1809c5c61b740bbd170f25c96cc18282\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Once we zoom out of the chart view, we can clearly see the signal candlestick size, as well as the trends forming. These strong support confluence factors make this trade easily profitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f184c397b415eddfbfeebb3dba0ed3\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Amplifying the signal on the daily chart, we can see that even if the stop loss is just above (and above) the first tailed bar high, there is still a huge potential risk-reward for this trade, because the market is indeed in a \"runaway trend\", and the trend is very strong. These types of trends are best suited for appending positions as a way to make huge profits. Please note that you can easily make 5x your profit in just one position here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b24f6290e32ea9b018e1485bc9dfad2\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>One of the main contents of this article is,<b>The best trades are supported by multiple confluence factors.</b>In all of the above examples, the trend is very clear and signals are forming at key levels. Once you know and understand what you are looking for, everything falls into place. However, these take some training, time, and cultivating intuition to truly acquire.</p><p>I want you to remember that the \"intersection\" of signals and levels or signals and trends you are looking for, or even just the \"intersection\" of levels and trends, trade like a sniper, and on the premise of doing your homework, choose those valuable trades to make. All of this will be easier once you understand how to read the \"money footprint,\" i.e. price action, on a chart.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UItscfbGwpDKw1QVVq6Wjw\">交易员说</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"BK1119":"汽车制造商","02015":"理想汽车-W","BK1587":"次新股","BK1575":"同股不同权","LI":"理想汽车","BK1539":"汽车股","BK1588":"回港中概股"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UItscfbGwpDKw1QVVq6Wjw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191873408","content_text":"理想的交易入场位可以使得止损位设置的更加合理，同时也能带来巨大的风险回报比。不过，说起来容易做起来难啊！尽管这些“完美”的交易设置可能并不常见，但这并不意味着它们“难以”被发现。如果你寻找的方法得当，就可以锁定这样理想的入场位，为交易创造更好的开端。基本上，百万美金交易员Nial Fuller表示，可使用三个步骤来寻找理想的入场点位。找到“完美”交易入场的三个关键：首先，最简单的方法就是，因为我个人比较喜欢日图框架交易，所以在日线图上寻找任何明显的价格行为交易信号。记住了，只找“很明显”的信号和形态，而且要是自己非常熟悉的那种。接着你要在交易图表上寻找支撑这些信号的交易汇合因素。比如，一个信号能与其他关键价位一致，或者在趋势内回撤后形成，就属于有支撑信息。从本质上讲，如果你想找到“完美的交易入场点”，你需要尽可能多地罗列出支撑信号的因素。1.找到信号、形态、水平进行交易。这有点简单直接，但也是一项需要发展和完善的技能。本文中，我们将使用pin bar入场信号和Tailed bar入场信号。2. 寻找入场“过滤器”和汇合因素，以及支撑交易信号的因素。例如强劲趋势、关键水平支撑和阻力位、50%波动回撤位、事件区域以及移动平均线等。3. 入场位调整和技巧。例如信号烛台自身的50%调整回撤入场，或简单地考虑附近的关键水平以获得更佳的入场点，从而使得自己能够设置更合理的止损位和更宽的止盈空间。为了找到理想入场位，我每天会做这些事醒来后，吃一顿健康营养早餐、再做点健身运动后，我开始坐在电脑前，看看纽约交易时段发生了什么，当然，这是因为我自己住在澳大利亚，醒来时前一天的纽约市场正好收盘了。我会看外汇、股指、主要商品市场，看看之前发生了什么，以及他们接下来对亚洲和欧洲市场的影响。我的目标是快速浏览经常交易的市场是否有比较明显的信号或者形态。如果有所发现，我便按照上面第二步，看看是否能找到支撑这个交易信息的市场结构等，同时也判断这个机会是不是真的值得交易。毕竟不是每一个发现的信号都适合交易。如果一个交易信号没有支撑汇合点，那么我可能不会交易它。当然，若锁定了值得交易的信号，我才开始判断它是不是满足我的交易标准，如果是，我再进一步研究计划，比如如何更好的入场，如何设置止损，以及何时退出等。让我们来看一些案例：示例1：在下面EUR/USD日图中，我们可以看到一个明显的pin bar做空信号，看起来这个信号的背后有很多支撑他的汇合因素。这一点我们将在下一张图中讨论。目前，留意到它的下影线明确突出，意味着价格在该区域出现较大的反转，以及遇到强阻力，并暗示接下来的数天价格可能继续走低。这个pin bar信号符合“明显”的概念，一眼就能看到：在下面图表中，我们来看看有什么“证据”在支撑这个pin bar信号。在这种情况下，绝对有足够的证据来保证入场交易。如下图所示，市场处于数月的下跌趋势中，并且在关键阻力区附近形成了信号，信号本身带有明显的特征。在我看来，这些都可以作为它的支撑信息。接下来直接设置交易，等待市场触发设置，之后你可以去看场电影放松下，不要在入场开始交易后就盯着盘面：接下来，我们放大pin bar视图。我们现在专注入场位调整，以及看看是否能提升风险回报潜力。请注意，在此交易中，我们本可以在pin bar的50%回撤位附近入场，以大大提高风险回报率。但是，你仍然可以在该50%回撤位以下的某个位置入场。事实上，在pin bar接近50%回撤位的位置入场相对有更好的回报，我们需要灵活设置入场比较接近这个位置。大概的盈利目标是3到4倍。示例2：下面是澳洲利亚股票指数SPI 200日线图。瞧了一眼这张图片，你就会被图表上抢眼的pin bar引起注意。它与日图上的水平很明显保持一致。那么这个pin bar的上影线非常突出，暗示价格将急剧反转。下图切换到周线图。通常，当在日图或4小时图上发现交易信号时，我会检查周线图，以了解该信号在长期时间框架背景下如何有意义，或者说它是否存在意义。在这种情况下，上方日线图的pin bar的形成在周线图上存在非常强大的关键阻力区/事件区域，如下图所示。它还与日线图和周线图上的下降趋势一致。最后，我们将日线图上的pin bar信号放大。请注意，此处无法进行回撤/入场调整，但该交易仍具有2倍的潜在盈利，因为下一个支撑会在很低的价位出现，如下图所示。像这样在关键级别/事件区域形成的交易，加上趋势一致，因此可以肯定这是一个值得交易的信号，它可能预示着一波快速且幅度大的价格波动：示例3：在这个示例中，我们将看到原油日线图上形成的几个看跌tailed bar信号（tailed bar指的是一个带有尾巴(影线)的烛台，影线的长度比烛台实体要更长）。你可以留意一个非常强劲的下跌趋势已经形成，这些看跌烛台信号就是在价格突破关键阻力位后下方形成并收于该水平之上。这些信号也许不如上面例子中的明显，不过考虑到市场空头背后的力量，经验比较丰富的交易者还是不难发现它们：一旦我们缩小图表视图，就可以清晰地看到信号烛台大小，以及形成的趋势。这些强大的支撑汇合因素使得这笔交易轻松盈利。把日线图上的信号放大，我们可以看到，即使止损刚好高于第一个tailed bar高点（并超过该水平），该交易仍存在巨大的潜在风险回报，因为该市场确实处于“失控趋势”，趋势非常强劲。这些类型的趋势最适合追加头寸，以此赚取巨额利润。请注意，仅在此处的一个位置上，你就可以轻松获得5倍的利润。总结本文中一个主要内容就是，最好的交易是得到多个汇合因素支撑的。在上述所有示例中，趋势非常明显，并且信号在关键水平上形成。一旦你了解并理解了正在寻找的东西，所有一切都水到渠成。然而，这些需要一些训练、时间和培养直觉才能真正获得。我希望你记住，你正在寻找的信号和水平或信号和趋势的“交叉点”，甚至只是水平和趋势的“交叉点”，就像狙击手一样进行交易，在做好功课的前提下，选择那些有价值的交易去做。一旦你理解了如何阅读图表上的“资金足迹”，即价格行为，所有这一切都会变得更容易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02015":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063510828,"gmtCreate":1651490826781,"gmtModify":1676534915305,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063510828","repostId":"1107758318","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107758318","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651488624,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107758318?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-02 18:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple faces EU antitrust lawsuit over payments","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107758318","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月2日，欧盟正式对苹果提出反垄断起诉，因苹果公司限制用户在苹果设备上通过第三方购买技术和服务。欧盟委员会在一份声明中指控苹果通过Apple Pay服务滥用其在移动钱包领域的主导地位，这可能导致苹果面","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 2, the European Union officially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Filed an antitrust lawsuit because Apple restricted users from purchasing technology and services through third parties on Apple devices. In a statement, the European Commission accused Apple of abusing its dominant position in mobile wallets through the Apple Pay service, which could result in Apple facing hefty fines. (Bloomberg)</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple faces EU antitrust lawsuit over payments</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple faces EU antitrust lawsuit over payments\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-02 18:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 2, the European Union officially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Filed an antitrust lawsuit because Apple restricted users from purchasing technology and services through third parties on Apple devices. In a statement, the European Commission accused Apple of abusing its dominant position in mobile wallets through the Apple Pay service, which could result in Apple facing hefty fines. (Bloomberg)</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f224bb016b853641f590b6753763d1","relate_stocks":{"BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4581":"高盛持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107758318","content_text":"5月2日，欧盟正式对苹果提出反垄断起诉，因苹果公司限制用户在苹果设备上通过第三方购买技术和服务。欧盟委员会在一份声明中指控苹果通过Apple Pay服务滥用其在移动钱包领域的主导地位，这可能导致苹果面临巨额罚款。（彭博）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063026320,"gmtCreate":1651373949128,"gmtModify":1676534897709,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063026320","repostId":"1145554634","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145554634","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651319482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145554634?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-30 19:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Berkshire: Net profit in the first quarter fell 53% year-on-year, significantly increasing holdings of Chevron","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145554634","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"第一季度斥资32亿美元用于回购公司A类股和B类股，这是自2020年同期以来的最低水平。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>News on April 30,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>· Hathaway announced its first quarter 2022 results.</p><p><b>Revenue</b></p><p>Revenue in the first quarter was US $7.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and the market expected US $7.02 billion.</p><p>Net profit in the first quarter was US $5.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 53%, compared with US $11.71 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>First quarter EPS of $3,702.</p><p><b>SHAREHOLDINGS</b></p><p>As of March 31, 2022, approximately 66% of the fair value of the Company's total investments was concentrated in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And Chevron.</p><p>As of March 31, 2022, the company held $42.6 billion worth of Bank of America stock.</p><p>As of March 31, 2022, the company held $28.4 billion worth of American Express stock.</p><p>As of March 31, 2022, the company held $159.1 billion worth of Apple stock.</p><p><b>As of March 31, 2022, the company held $25.9 billion worth of Chevron stock. This equates to a holding of about 159 million shares, which is up from the group's holding of about 38 million shares at the end of Q4 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a53ccfcbb412d75a873887c134d90\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Repurchase vs. Investment</b></p><p><b>Spent $3.2 billion in the first quarter to buy back the company's Class A and Class B shares. This is the lowest level since the same period in 2020 and down from $6.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021.</b></p><p>The net loss of investments and derivatives in the first quarter was US $1.58 billion, compared with a net profit of US $4.69 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>Insurance \"floating\" funds in the first quarter were about $140.8 billion, an increase of about $1 billion from the end of 2021.</p><p>Cash reserves fell to $106.3 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a75f2f3b6634dd4d8c152c174b07cd5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Berkshire: Net profit in the first quarter fell 53% year-on-year, significantly increasing holdings of Chevron</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBerkshire: Net profit in the first quarter fell 53% year-on-year, significantly increasing holdings of Chevron\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-30 19:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>News on April 30,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>· Hathaway announced its first quarter 2022 results.</p><p><b>Revenue</b></p><p>Revenue in the first quarter was US $7.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and the market expected US $7.02 billion.</p><p>Net profit in the first quarter was US $5.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 53%, compared with US $11.71 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>First quarter EPS of $3,702.</p><p><b>SHAREHOLDINGS</b></p><p>As of March 31, 2022, approximately 66% of the fair value of the Company's total investments was concentrated in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And Chevron.</p><p>As of March 31, 2022, the company held $42.6 billion worth of Bank of America stock.</p><p>As of March 31, 2022, the company held $28.4 billion worth of American Express stock.</p><p>As of March 31, 2022, the company held $159.1 billion worth of Apple stock.</p><p><b>As of March 31, 2022, the company held $25.9 billion worth of Chevron stock. This equates to a holding of about 159 million shares, which is up from the group's holding of about 38 million shares at the end of Q4 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a53ccfcbb412d75a873887c134d90\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Repurchase vs. Investment</b></p><p><b>Spent $3.2 billion in the first quarter to buy back the company's Class A and Class B shares. This is the lowest level since the same period in 2020 and down from $6.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021.</b></p><p>The net loss of investments and derivatives in the first quarter was US $1.58 billion, compared with a net profit of US $4.69 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>Insurance \"floating\" funds in the first quarter were about $140.8 billion, an increase of about $1 billion from the end of 2021.</p><p>Cash reserves fell to $106.3 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a75f2f3b6634dd4d8c152c174b07cd5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/307bf4a9db7cedf56fcd2353c929b718","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145554634","content_text":"4月30日消息，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公布了2022年第一季度业绩。营收情况第一季度营收70.4亿美元，同比增长0.3%，市场预期70.2亿美元。第一季度净利润54.6亿美元，同比下滑53%，去年同期为117.1亿美元。第一季度EPS为3702美元。持股情况据提交给SEC的文件显示，截至2022年3月31日，公司总投资的公允价值约66%集中在美国运通、苹果、美国银行和雪佛龙。截至2022年3月31日，公司持有价值426亿美元的美国银行股票。截至2022年3月31日，公司持有价值284亿美元的美国运通股票。截至2022年3月31日，公司持有价值1591亿美元的苹果股票。截至2022年3月31日，公司持有价值259亿美元的雪佛龙股票。相当于持有约1.59亿股，这高于该集团在2021年第四季度末持有的约3800万股。回购与投资第一季度斥资32亿美元用于回购公司A类股和B类股。这是自2020年同期以来的最低水平，也低于2021年第四季度的69亿美元。第一季度投资和衍生品净亏损15.8亿美元，去年同期为净盈利46.9亿美元。第一季度保险“浮动”资金约1408亿美元，较2021年底增加约10亿美元。第一季度现金储备降至1063亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069249685,"gmtCreate":1651298834484,"gmtModify":1676534887261,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575949053778392","authorIdStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069249685","repostId":"1195859414","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195859414","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651287534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195859414?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-30 10:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Netflix \"stalls\" together, and the streaming media track is filled with smoke","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195859414","media":"中国经营报","summary":"流媒体行业并没有真正触及到天花板。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Qin Xiao</p><p>Netflix recently released its first quarter financial report for 2022. The financial report shows that Netflix's global new paying user data decreased by 200,000 compared with the same period last year. This is the first time in the past 10 years that Netflix's net user growth has been negative. At the same time, Netflix also gave its forecast for the second quarter of 2022, and the net increase of paying users will reach-2 million.</p><p>A number of industry insiders told reporters from China Business News that the users that Netflix has gained through popular movies and television in recent years are leaving, which is a normal phenomenon in the streaming media industry. However, the streaming media industry has not really reached the ceiling. The total number of global users is huge, and there are still non-European and American markets that can be tapped. It just requires a lot of investment and localized operations, and continues to use more popular models to drive user subscriptions.</p><p>User churn</p><p>This is the first decline in Netflix's paying users in nearly 10 years. Two years ago, Netflix just set a growth record. In 2020, Netflix will have a net increase of 37 million paying users throughout the year. In 2021, Netflix's paying users will continue to grow by 18 million.</p><p>In response to the first decline in the number of paying users, Netflix explained that the slowdown in the growth of broadband and smart TVs, intensified competition from competitors, continued disruption from the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia, the impact of the Ukrainian situation, and rising inflation have led to a decline in the number of users. Netflix CFO Spencer Newman said that a very direct factor affecting the decline in the number of users is the situation in Ukraine, which has caused the loss of a certain number of users.</p><p>In this regard, the capital market responded quickly. Netflix's share price plummeted at the opening on April 20 (the financial report release date), during which it fell to US $212 per share, the lowest value since the end of March 2018, and its market value instantly evaporated by more than US $40 billion (approximately RMB 258 billion). When the U.S. stock market closed on April 27, Eastern Time, Netflix quoted US $188.54 per share, with a total market value of US $83.8 billion.</p><p>Prior to this, Netflix's streaming service lost 700,000 users in Russia due to Netflix's current suspension of services in Russia, which also reduced the company's business scale in Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p>However, not only countries and regions such as Russia, Netflix's net paying users in the Latin American market are also decreasing. The financial report shows that the number of net paying users in the Latin American market decreased by 400,000, and the number of net paying users in the core regions of North America also decreased by 600,000.</p><p>What is more gratifying is that Netflix has developed smoothly in the Asia-Pacific region, with a net increase of 1.09 million users, of which Japan, India, the Philippines, Thailand and other markets have achieved ideal growth.</p><p>Zhang Shule, an industry commentator, told reporters that if there are popular models, the number of fans will increase, and if there are few popular models, the number of fans will lose. This is mostly the fate of streaming media. Last year, Netflix's fans gained through \"Squid Game\" began to leave, which is not surprising, not to mention that before \"Squid Game\" became a hit, Netflix also experienced the same user loss.</p><p>It is reported that in September last year, the Korean drama \"Squid Game\" launched by Netflix became popular. According to its financial report, the drama has become the largest-rated TV series ever broadcast by Netflix. Within four weeks of its launch, 142 million users worldwide watched it, while Netflix had 214 million global paying users at that time.</p><p>However, rising prices are also the reason for the decrease in Netflix users. Netflix announced in January this year that it would raise prices in North America, and then raised prices in the United Kingdom and Ireland in March. After the price increase, the price of the standard version in North America reached $15.49/month, and the price of the equivalent service in the UK and other places was £ 10. 99/month.</p><p>Xiang Kai, a young Chinese playwright and director, told reporters that the main reason for the loss of Netflix users is its price increase. At the same time, the content launched by Netflix in recent years is highly exclusive. In particular, the entry of Chinese short video platforms into overseas markets has also had an impact on streaming media platforms. The superposition of various factors has led to the loss of Netflix users.</p><p>Wolves waiting around</p><p>Different from Netflix's own \"bleak\", its pursuers are showing a trend of fierce pursuit.</p><p>According to Disney's latest financial report, the total number of Disney + subscribers in the first quarter reached 129.8 million, with more than 8.3 million new users in a single quarter. The growth rate led the industry, in sharp contrast to Netflix's loss of 200,000 users.</p><p>It is worth noting that Disney + has only been on the market for two years. In November 2019, Disney launched the streaming service Disney + and integrated Disney +, ESPN + and Hulu into one package. Now, the total number of paying users of this package has exceeded 196.4 million, catching up with Netflix's 220 million users.</p><p>However, Netflix's competitors are by no means just Disney. Giants such as Amazon, Apple, and Warner have also made frequent moves to lay out the streaming media field.</p><p>Apple, which launched Apple TV + in 2019 and officially entered the streaming media track, has made frequent moves in the past two years. Apple's announcement shows that Apple TV + 's film and television works have won 240 awards and 953 nominations, including Academy Awards, SAG Awards, BAFTA Film Awards, Critics' Choice Awards, Primetime Emmy Awards, etc.</p><p>On March 17th this year, Amazon announced that it had completed the $8.5 billion acquisition of MGM Studios. MGM has joined Prime Video and Amazon Studios. The deal will make Amazon's TV and movie library even stronger. MGM is the production company of the \"007\" series of movies, and it also owns Epix cable TV channel.</p><p>Less than a month later, on April 8th, the merger of Discovery and WarnerMedia was officially completed. Discovery bought a 29% stake in WarnerMedia from AT&T, an American telecommunications giant, for $43 billion. The combined new company is Warner Bros. Discovery.</p><p>According to media reports, Warner Bros. Discovery is valued at at least $114 billion. The company's 2023 revenue is expected to reach $54 billion.</p><p>In 2019, Netflix's global market share exceeded 65%. However, according to the latest data from Parrrot Analytics, Netflix's market share has fallen below 50% in 2021, and Netflix's advantage is being eroded.</p><p>Not only is it facing the threat of traditional streaming media giants, Netflix is also facing the challenge of short video applications.</p><p>Relevant data shows that, first, due to the emergence of short video applications such as TikTok and Twitch, the time spent by users on streaming media platforms has been reduced by 20%, which is only one-third of the time spent on short video applications. Some analysts say that this trend is mainly related to the Chinese market. Second, global mobile phone users will spend US $1.97 billion on short video applications in 2021, an increase of 82%. Among them, TikTok became the game and application revenue champion in the first quarter of 2022, with global users spending nearly US $850 million.</p><p>Turn on the \"burning money\" mode</p><p>Some insiders believe that the influx of so many giants into the streaming media track will accelerate streaming media to touch the growth ceiling.</p><p>Zhang Shule believes that the streaming media industry has not really reached the ceiling. The total number of global users is huge, and there are still many non-European and American markets that can be tapped. It just requires a lot of investment and localized operations, and continues to use more explosive models to drive user subscriptions.</p><p>Xiang Kai also told reporters that overseas streaming media still has a lot of room for development, especially in the European, American, Japanese and Korean markets, which are relatively stable. In addition, emerging markets also have a lot of room for development.</p><p>According to research data from Allied Market Research, the global video streaming media market will approach US $150 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.2%. In the United States, where the market is the most mature, the total number of subscribers is expected to increase from 354 million in 2021 to 458 million in 2027. By 2027, 86% of TV households will subscribe to at least one streaming platform. In the next five years, each The household will subscribe to an average of 4.37 streaming services. To this end, leading streaming media companies have also increased their investment.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley, Disney's investment in streaming content may increase by 35% to 40% year-on-year in 2022. Disney's spending on all new movies and TV shows is expected to reach $23 billion. If sports rights are included, that figure rises to $33 billion, a 32% increase from overall content spending in 2021 and a 65% increase from 2020. Netflix's spending on content will exceed US $17 billion, an increase of 25% from 2021 and an increase of 57% from US $10.8 billion in 2020.</p><p>However, Zhang Shule said that streaming media is no longer just about big investment, big production or satisfaction with explosions, but has begun to try more peripheral derivative chains, such as exploring movie-game linkage, interactive film and television or interactive live-action games. There is a lot of content to explore in the future of the streaming media industry, especially the transformation of IP into peripheral derivatives. It is the real future of streaming media to drive related games, toys, theme parks and other peripheral derivative industries to attract money through popular movies and televisions.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1571439018386","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix \"stalls\" together, and the streaming media track is filled with smoke</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix \"stalls\" together, and the streaming media track is filled with smoke\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国经营报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-30 10:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Qin Xiao</p><p>Netflix recently released its first quarter financial report for 2022. The financial report shows that Netflix's global new paying user data decreased by 200,000 compared with the same period last year. This is the first time in the past 10 years that Netflix's net user growth has been negative. At the same time, Netflix also gave its forecast for the second quarter of 2022, and the net increase of paying users will reach-2 million.</p><p>A number of industry insiders told reporters from China Business News that the users that Netflix has gained through popular movies and television in recent years are leaving, which is a normal phenomenon in the streaming media industry. However, the streaming media industry has not really reached the ceiling. The total number of global users is huge, and there are still non-European and American markets that can be tapped. It just requires a lot of investment and localized operations, and continues to use more popular models to drive user subscriptions.</p><p>User churn</p><p>This is the first decline in Netflix's paying users in nearly 10 years. Two years ago, Netflix just set a growth record. In 2020, Netflix will have a net increase of 37 million paying users throughout the year. In 2021, Netflix's paying users will continue to grow by 18 million.</p><p>In response to the first decline in the number of paying users, Netflix explained that the slowdown in the growth of broadband and smart TVs, intensified competition from competitors, continued disruption from the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia, the impact of the Ukrainian situation, and rising inflation have led to a decline in the number of users. Netflix CFO Spencer Newman said that a very direct factor affecting the decline in the number of users is the situation in Ukraine, which has caused the loss of a certain number of users.</p><p>In this regard, the capital market responded quickly. Netflix's share price plummeted at the opening on April 20 (the financial report release date), during which it fell to US $212 per share, the lowest value since the end of March 2018, and its market value instantly evaporated by more than US $40 billion (approximately RMB 258 billion). When the U.S. stock market closed on April 27, Eastern Time, Netflix quoted US $188.54 per share, with a total market value of US $83.8 billion.</p><p>Prior to this, Netflix's streaming service lost 700,000 users in Russia due to Netflix's current suspension of services in Russia, which also reduced the company's business scale in Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p>However, not only countries and regions such as Russia, Netflix's net paying users in the Latin American market are also decreasing. The financial report shows that the number of net paying users in the Latin American market decreased by 400,000, and the number of net paying users in the core regions of North America also decreased by 600,000.</p><p>What is more gratifying is that Netflix has developed smoothly in the Asia-Pacific region, with a net increase of 1.09 million users, of which Japan, India, the Philippines, Thailand and other markets have achieved ideal growth.</p><p>Zhang Shule, an industry commentator, told reporters that if there are popular models, the number of fans will increase, and if there are few popular models, the number of fans will lose. This is mostly the fate of streaming media. Last year, Netflix's fans gained through \"Squid Game\" began to leave, which is not surprising, not to mention that before \"Squid Game\" became a hit, Netflix also experienced the same user loss.</p><p>It is reported that in September last year, the Korean drama \"Squid Game\" launched by Netflix became popular. According to its financial report, the drama has become the largest-rated TV series ever broadcast by Netflix. Within four weeks of its launch, 142 million users worldwide watched it, while Netflix had 214 million global paying users at that time.</p><p>However, rising prices are also the reason for the decrease in Netflix users. Netflix announced in January this year that it would raise prices in North America, and then raised prices in the United Kingdom and Ireland in March. After the price increase, the price of the standard version in North America reached $15.49/month, and the price of the equivalent service in the UK and other places was £ 10. 99/month.</p><p>Xiang Kai, a young Chinese playwright and director, told reporters that the main reason for the loss of Netflix users is its price increase. At the same time, the content launched by Netflix in recent years is highly exclusive. In particular, the entry of Chinese short video platforms into overseas markets has also had an impact on streaming media platforms. The superposition of various factors has led to the loss of Netflix users.</p><p>Wolves waiting around</p><p>Different from Netflix's own \"bleak\", its pursuers are showing a trend of fierce pursuit.</p><p>According to Disney's latest financial report, the total number of Disney + subscribers in the first quarter reached 129.8 million, with more than 8.3 million new users in a single quarter. The growth rate led the industry, in sharp contrast to Netflix's loss of 200,000 users.</p><p>It is worth noting that Disney + has only been on the market for two years. In November 2019, Disney launched the streaming service Disney + and integrated Disney +, ESPN + and Hulu into one package. Now, the total number of paying users of this package has exceeded 196.4 million, catching up with Netflix's 220 million users.</p><p>However, Netflix's competitors are by no means just Disney. Giants such as Amazon, Apple, and Warner have also made frequent moves to lay out the streaming media field.</p><p>Apple, which launched Apple TV + in 2019 and officially entered the streaming media track, has made frequent moves in the past two years. Apple's announcement shows that Apple TV + 's film and television works have won 240 awards and 953 nominations, including Academy Awards, SAG Awards, BAFTA Film Awards, Critics' Choice Awards, Primetime Emmy Awards, etc.</p><p>On March 17th this year, Amazon announced that it had completed the $8.5 billion acquisition of MGM Studios. MGM has joined Prime Video and Amazon Studios. The deal will make Amazon's TV and movie library even stronger. MGM is the production company of the \"007\" series of movies, and it also owns Epix cable TV channel.</p><p>Less than a month later, on April 8th, the merger of Discovery and WarnerMedia was officially completed. Discovery bought a 29% stake in WarnerMedia from AT&T, an American telecommunications giant, for $43 billion. The combined new company is Warner Bros. Discovery.</p><p>According to media reports, Warner Bros. Discovery is valued at at least $114 billion. The company's 2023 revenue is expected to reach $54 billion.</p><p>In 2019, Netflix's global market share exceeded 65%. However, according to the latest data from Parrrot Analytics, Netflix's market share has fallen below 50% in 2021, and Netflix's advantage is being eroded.</p><p>Not only is it facing the threat of traditional streaming media giants, Netflix is also facing the challenge of short video applications.</p><p>Relevant data shows that, first, due to the emergence of short video applications such as TikTok and Twitch, the time spent by users on streaming media platforms has been reduced by 20%, which is only one-third of the time spent on short video applications. Some analysts say that this trend is mainly related to the Chinese market. Second, global mobile phone users will spend US $1.97 billion on short video applications in 2021, an increase of 82%. Among them, TikTok became the game and application revenue champion in the first quarter of 2022, with global users spending nearly US $850 million.</p><p>Turn on the \"burning money\" mode</p><p>Some insiders believe that the influx of so many giants into the streaming media track will accelerate streaming media to touch the growth ceiling.</p><p>Zhang Shule believes that the streaming media industry has not really reached the ceiling. The total number of global users is huge, and there are still many non-European and American markets that can be tapped. It just requires a lot of investment and localized operations, and continues to use more explosive models to drive user subscriptions.</p><p>Xiang Kai also told reporters that overseas streaming media still has a lot of room for development, especially in the European, American, Japanese and Korean markets, which are relatively stable. In addition, emerging markets also have a lot of room for development.</p><p>According to research data from Allied Market Research, the global video streaming media market will approach US $150 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.2%. In the United States, where the market is the most mature, the total number of subscribers is expected to increase from 354 million in 2021 to 458 million in 2027. By 2027, 86% of TV households will subscribe to at least one streaming platform. In the next five years, each The household will subscribe to an average of 4.37 streaming services. To this end, leading streaming media companies have also increased their investment.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley, Disney's investment in streaming content may increase by 35% to 40% year-on-year in 2022. Disney's spending on all new movies and TV shows is expected to reach $23 billion. If sports rights are included, that figure rises to $33 billion, a 32% increase from overall content spending in 2021 and a 65% increase from 2020. Netflix's spending on content will exceed US $17 billion, an increase of 25% from 2021 and an increase of 57% from US $10.8 billion in 2020.</p><p>However, Zhang Shule said that streaming media is no longer just about big investment, big production or satisfaction with explosions, but has begun to try more peripheral derivative chains, such as exploring movie-game linkage, interactive film and television or interactive live-action games. There is a lot of content to explore in the future of the streaming media industry, especially the transformation of IP into peripheral derivatives. It is the real future of streaming media to drive related games, toys, theme parks and other peripheral derivative industries to attract money through popular movies and televisions.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.cb.com.cn/index/show/bzyc/cv/cv135152821642\">中国经营报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2504f923ed712669cfb6da28ee56fea","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"http://www.cb.com.cn/index/show/bzyc/cv/cv135152821642","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195859414","content_text":"作者： 秦枭奈飞近日发布了2022年第一季度财报。财报显示，奈飞全球新增付费用户数据较去年同期减少20万户，这是奈飞近10年来首次用户净增长为负数。与此同时，奈飞还给出了对2022年第二季度的预期，付费用户净增将达到-200万户。多位业内人士对《中国经营报》记者表示，奈飞通过近几年爆款影视收获的用户正在离去，这在流媒体行业属于正常现象。但流媒体行业并没有真正触及到天花板，全球用户总量庞大，还有非欧美市场可以挖掘，只是需要大量投入和本地化运营，以及继续用更多的爆款来驱动用户订阅。用户流失这是奈飞付费用户数近10年来首次下滑。而在两年前，奈飞刚刚创下了增长纪录，2020年，奈飞全年净增3700万户付费用户，2021年奈飞付费用户继续增长了1800万户。针对付费用户数首次下滑，奈飞方面解释道，宽带和智能电视的增长放缓、来自竞争对手的竞争加剧、新冠肺炎疫情持续干扰、乌克兰局势的影响、通货膨胀加剧使得用户数量下降。奈飞CFO斯宾塞·纽曼说，用户数下滑，一个非常直接的影响因素就是乌克兰局势，造成了一定数量的用户流失。对此，资本市场迅速给出反应。奈飞股价4月20日（财报发布日）开盘即暴跌，其间跌到212美元/股，创2018年3月底以来的最低值，市值瞬间蒸发超400亿美元（约合人民币2580亿元）。在美东时间4月27日美股收盘时，奈飞报188.54美元/股，总市值838亿美元。在此之前，由于奈飞目前暂停了在俄罗斯的服务，奈飞的流媒体服务在俄罗斯失去了70万用户，也缩减了公司在中欧和东欧地区的业务规模。但是，不仅仅是俄罗斯等国家和地区，奈飞在拉美市场的付费净用户也在减少。财报显示，拉美市场付费净用户数量减少了40万户，在北美核心地区付费净用户也减少了60万户。比较欣慰的是，奈飞在亚太地区的发展顺利，用户净增109万户，其中日本、印度、菲律宾和泰国等多个市场都实现理想增长。产业时评人张书乐对记者表示，有爆款就涨粉，少爆款就掉粉，流媒体的命运大多如此。去年奈飞通过《鱿鱼游戏》收获的粉丝开始离开，这不足为奇，何况在《鱿鱼游戏》爆款之前，奈飞也出现过同样的用户流失情况。据悉，去年9月，奈飞上线的韩剧《鱿鱼游戏》大火。据其财报披露，该剧已成为奈飞有史以来播出的最大收视规模电视剧，上线四周内全球有1.42亿用户观看，而奈飞当时的全球付费用户数为2.14亿户。不过，价格上涨也是奈飞用户减少的原因。奈飞在今年1月曾宣布将上调北美地区的价格，随后又在3月上调了英国及爱尔兰地区的价格。在涨价后，北美地区标准版的价格达到了15.49美元/月，英国等地同等服务的价格为10.99英镑/月。中国青年剧作家、导演向凯对记者表示，奈飞用户流失的主要原因还是其价格上涨。同时，近些年奈飞推出的内容排他性较强。尤其是中国短视频平台进军海外市场，也对流媒体平台造成冲击，多种因素叠加，导致奈飞的用户出现流失的现象。群狼环伺与奈飞自身的“萧瑟”不同，其追赶者们正呈现猛追的态势。根据迪士尼的最新财报，Disney+一季度总订阅用户数达到1.298亿户，单季新增用户超过830万户，增速领跑全行业，与奈飞的流失20万用户形成鲜明对比。值得注意的是，Disney+面市仅仅两年的时间。2019年11月，迪士尼推出流媒体服务Disney+，并整合Disney+、ESPN+和Hulu为一个套餐。现在，该套餐付费用户总数突破1.964亿户，直追奈飞的2.2亿户。然而，奈飞的竞争对手绝不仅仅是迪士尼。亚马逊、苹果、华纳等巨头也动作频频，布局流媒体领域。在2019年推出Apple TV+正式进军流媒体赛道的苹果公司近两年动作频频。苹果公告显示，Apple TV+的影视作品已获得240项大奖和953项提名，包括奥斯卡奖、SAG奖、BAFTA电影奖、评论家选择奖、黄金时段艾美奖等。今年3月17日，亚马逊宣布已经完成了85亿美元收购米高梅电影公司的交易。米高梅已加入Prime Video和亚马逊工作室。这笔交易将使亚马逊的电视和电影资料库变得更加强大。米高梅是“007”系列电影的制片公司，旗下还拥有Epix有线电视频道。仅仅过了不到一个月，4月8日，Discovery和华纳传媒的合并案正式完成，Discovery以430亿美元的价格从美国电信业巨擘AT&T手中买下华纳传媒29%股权。合并后的新公司为华纳兄弟探索（Warner Bros。 Discovery）。据媒体报道，华纳兄弟探索的估值至少1140亿美元。该公司2023年的营收预计达到 540 亿美元。在2019年，奈飞的全球市场占有率超过65%。但根据Parrrot Analytics的最新数据，奈飞市占份额在2021年已跌破50%，奈飞的优势正在被蚕食。不仅仅面临传统流媒体巨头的威胁，奈飞也在面临短视频应用的挑战。有关数据显示，一是由于TikTok、Twitch等短视频应用程序的出现，用户在流媒体平台上花费的时间减少20%，仅为在短视频应用上花费时间的三分之一。有分析称，这一趋势主要与中国市场有关。二是2021年全球手机用户在短视频应用上花费19.7亿美元，增长82%。其中TikTok在2022年第一季度成为游戏和应用程序营收冠军，全球用户消费了近8.5亿美元。开启“烧钱”模式有业内人士认为，如此多的巨头涌入流媒体赛道，会加速流媒体触碰到增长天花板。张书乐认为，流媒体行业并没有真正触及到天花板，全球用户总量庞大，还有许多非欧美市场可以挖掘，只是需要大量投入和本地化运营，以及继续用更多的爆款来驱动用户订阅。向凯也对记者表示，海外流媒体还有很大的发展空间，尤其是在欧美日韩市场，相对比较稳定，此外新兴市场也有很大的发展空间。Allied Market Research研究数据显示，到2026年全球视频流媒体市场将接近1500亿美元，年复合增长率高达25.2%。在市场最为成熟的美国，订阅用户总数预计从2021年的3.54亿户增至2027年的4.58亿户，到2027年，86%的电视家庭将订阅至少一个流媒体平台，未来五年，每个家庭将平均订阅4.37个流媒体服务。为此，流媒体的头部企业也加大了投资。据摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）预计，2022年迪士尼对流媒体内容的投资可能同比增长35%至40%。迪士尼在所有新电影和电视节目上的支出预计将达到230亿美元。如果将体育转播权计算在内，这一数字将升至330亿美元，较2021年的整体内容开支增长32%，较2020年增长65%。而奈飞在内容上的支出将超过170亿美元，较2021年增长25%，较2020年的108亿美元增长57%。不过，张书乐表示，流媒体不再只是大投入、大制作或满足于爆款，而是开始更多地尝试周边衍生链条，如探索影游联动、互动影视或互动真人游戏等。流媒体行业未来有许多可探索的内容，特别是IP转化为周边衍生，通过爆款影视来驱动相关游戏、玩具、主题公园等周边衍生产业去吸金，才是流媒体真正的大未来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":102717168,"gmtCreate":1620253774654,"gmtModify":1704340701858,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"History will repeat, the Q is&nbsp;when...","listText":"History will repeat, the Q is&nbsp;when...","text":"History will repeat, the Q is when...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102717168","repostId":"1148686352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148686352","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620224535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148686352?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-05 22:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Day In Market History: Panic Of 1893 Crashes Stock Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148686352","media":"benzinga","summary":"What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the ","content":"<div>\n<p>What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the time.\nWhere The Market Was:The Dow finished the day at 30.02.\nWhat Else Was Going On In The World?In...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Day In Market History: Panic Of 1893 Crashes Stock Market</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Day In Market History: Panic Of 1893 Crashes Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-05 22:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market><strong>benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the time.\nWhere The Market Was:The Dow finished the day at 30.02.\nWhat Else Was Going On In The World?In...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148686352","content_text":"What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the time.\nWhere The Market Was:The Dow finished the day at 30.02.\nWhat Else Was Going On In The World?In 1893, Thomas Edison completed the world’s first movie studio in West Orange, New Jersey. Lizzie Borden was acquitted of the ax murders of her father and stepmother. A fresh, one-pound beef steak cost 10 cents.\nPanic Of 1893:On May 5, 1893, the Dow Jones Index dropped more than 24% from 39.90 to 30.02. It would mark the worst intraday sell-off in U.S. history at the time, a record that would stand until 1929.\nThe Panic of 1893 was triggered in part by falling gold reserves in the U.S. Treasury. At the time, the U.S. was on the gold standard, meaning U.S. dollars could be redeemed for physical gold. When Treasury gold reserves dropped from $190 million in 1890 to $100 million by 1893, Americans grew concerned that the Treasury might run out of gold and began withdrawing bank notes and converting them to gold, placing extreme strain on the U.S. banking industry and credit markets.\nThe May 5 sell-off was triggered in part by the bankruptcy of Nation Cordage the day before.General Electric CompanyGE 0.34%shares dropped 28% on the day from $80 to $58.\nFortunately for investors, the Panic of 1893 didn’t last for long. By the end of the day, the market nearly completely recovered its losses. GE, for example, closed the session at $78.50.\nThe Panic of 1893 would ravage the U.S. economy, triggering a severe four-year depression. Roughly 14,000 U.S. businesses closed, and unemployment rose to 20%. The event would mark the worst economic downturn in U.S. history until the Great Depression began in 1929.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171757291,"gmtCreate":1626768146713,"gmtModify":1703764809359,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be prepared","listText":"Be prepared","text":"Be prepared","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171757291","repostId":"1168215370","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"content":"big ? not enough","text":"big ? not enough","html":"big ? not enough"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116479969,"gmtCreate":1622817159751,"gmtModify":1704191836860,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope they have a new product to extend the glory?","listText":"Hope they have a new product to extend the glory?","text":"Hope they have a new product to extend the glory?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/116479969","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122373606?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>\n <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>\n <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p>\n<p><b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p>\n<p>Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p>\n<p>To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's business growth</b></p>\n<p>Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p>\n<p>On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p>\n<p>Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p>\n<p>This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's future valuation</b></p>\n<p>AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p>\n<p><b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p>\n<p>Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p>\n<p>AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p>\n<p>Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 15:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110511495,"gmtCreate":1622468095917,"gmtModify":1704184834821,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Emm...neither?","listText":"Emm...neither?","text":"Emm...neither?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110511495","repostId":"2139043042","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581742924827239","authorId":"3581742924827239","name":"JiaocyTi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c16d760078e396b46033bc97afede0c8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581742924827239","idStr":"3581742924827239"},"content":"Wait for more option or better chance","text":"Wait for more option or better chance","html":"Wait for more option or better chance"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026009217,"gmtCreate":1653288021939,"gmtModify":1676535254426,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Risk and opportunity","listText":"Risk and opportunity","text":"Risk and opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026009217","repostId":"1126352915","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126352915","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653287308,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126352915?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 14:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street has huge differences in forecasts for the trend of U.S. stocks at the end of the year! Still guessing?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126352915","media":"金十数据","summary":"华尔街目前对标普500指数年底最高和最低预测之间的差距达到了37%。美股连续七周下跌，上周五标普500指数一度下跌多达2.3%，五个月内下跌超过20%，险熊市收盘的风险。然而，买家在最后一小时突然涌入","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Wall Street's current gap between year-end forecasts for the S&P 500's highest and lowest is 37%.</p><p>U.S. stocks have fallen for seven consecutive weeks. Last Friday, the S&P 500 index fell as much as 2.3% and fell more than 20% in five months, threatening a bear market close. However, a sudden influx of buyers in the final hour narrowed its loss since Jan. 3 to 18.7%, avoiding a drop into a bear market again. This makes Wall Street prophets more and more confused about the trend of U.S. stocks as if they were back to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6391cd2811caa710d42772057d5207e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The difference is that the pandemic disruption has subsided somewhat, and the biggest blow now comes from the Federal Reserve, which is intent on squeezing excess money out of the economy. Coupled with the Russia-Ukraine war, supply chains are once again at risk of disruption, and stock valuations are at 20-year highs.</p><p>As a result, Wall Street's forecasts are very different. Six more strategists lowered their year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 this month,<b>The current gap between the highest and lowest projections reaches 37%.</b>This massive divergence has only occurred once over the same period of the past decade: right after the sell-off in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ad85b6d65a8e4418b8793f276a2d7f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Evidence of investor confusion is everywhere. Just this week, shares of Cathie Wood's flagship ETF, Ark Investment, and tech companies alternated between profits and losses for five consecutive days. At the same time, retail companies such as Wal-Mart, which served as safe havens during market turmoil, suddenly collapsed and plummeted due to thunderous earnings reports.</p><p>How bad could things get? For those who are bears, a recession is an inevitable result of the Fed's fight against inflation. Fed bulls may hope that it is moving towards its goal.</p><p>Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, said by phone:</p><p>\"The nature of the uncertainty we face is different, but Wall Street strategists don't have an easier job now than it was during the pandemic. There's no certainty about where the economy is headed. There's a'recession 'camp, a'soft landing camp,' and a variety of views in between.\" Currently, financial conditions are tightening at the fastest pace since 1987. The index of financial conditions tracked by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is down 1% since its first rate hike two months ago. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that,<b>The pace of tightening at this stage exceeds all five previous rate hike cycles.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e02f4d19d67c2256fd6abc17a1f02b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This week, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus (John Stoltzfus) reiterated his bullish stance in an interview with foreign media. His year-end price target is 5,330 points, the highest in the latest strategist survey. He sees parallels between exaggerating the decline in U.S. stocks now and in the past. He said:</p><p>\"Now my gut tells me that the current situation looks a lot like early 2009, like 1994, and like the fourth quarter of 2018. If you make negative predictions untimely, you will miss the rally afterwards.\" March 2009 marked the beginning of a long bull market in the wake of the global financial crisis. In 1994, the Federal Reserve began a rate hike cycle and successfully avoided a recession. The Federal Reserve halted its rate hike in late 2018 amid a plunge in stocks and began easing policy the following year.</p><p>At present, policymakers have little sympathy for the bloodshed in the markets. But investors haven't given up hope that the Fed will step in if things worsen, the expectation of a \"Fed put option.\"<b>In the latest Bank of America survey, fund managers expect \"Fed puts\" to take effect when the S&P index falls to 3,529, which is 9.5% below Friday's closing price.</b></p><p>However, markets have been slow to recover, frustrating even the least optimistic on Wall Street. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Eric Johnston has a year-end target of 3,900, the lowest among strategists tracked by Bloomberg. In early May, after the S&P 500 had its worst April performance in 50 years, he told clients that stocks were ready for a rebound. A few weeks later, the massacre showed no signs of abating, and he admitted his fault.</p><p><b>The biggest hidden worry: the bear market is approaching, but the panic is not here</b></p><p>To make matters worse, is the crash of U.S. stocks so far a panic? In some ways, the answer is no, which could bode bad for the stock market in the short term.</p><p>Even if U.S. stocks hit a bear market for the first time since March 2020,<b>Trading volume has been average</b>，<b>The Cboe Volatility Index is below this month's high.</b>At the same time,<b>CBOE SKEW Index (implied volatility of S&P 500 puts versus calls) is near two-year low</b>。</p><p>From a contrarian perspective, the relative lack of panic is not necessarily a good thing. AlphaTrAI analyst Max Gokhman believes that,<b>The S&P 500 is moving relatively orderly, with no obvious signs of panic, suggesting that the bottom has not yet emerged.</b>Coupled with the Fed's intention to continue to seek to tighten financial conditions, the outlook for U.S. stocks is bleak, and there may be more room for decline. Now the tightening cycle is only one-third of the way, and a recession is yet to occur.</p><p>Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives at Susquehanna International Group, said:</p><p>\"We usually see more volume at real lows, which is a sign of investor capitulation. The current volume is not representative, and I prefer to see a surge in volume to confirm the bottom of U.S. stocks. Be more confident.\" SentimenTrader analyst Jay Kaeppel said in an interview on Friday:</p><p>\"We have fears, doubts and anxiety, but we haven't capitulated. No one has sold stocks yet, although I think that will happen. Wake me up when the VIX (fear index) reaches 45, because looking back on history, every time the stock market A big decline will be accompanied by a VIX soaring to 40 or 45, and the VIX is currently around 30.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2299f3fd709ff49f919aa7601dc3ce\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, is watching for signs of capitulation on three fronts: VIX above 40; The ratio of sold options to call options trading volume (which evaluates the investment sentiment of the market) reached 1.35-currently 1.27; Stock trading volume exceeded 20 billion shares. He wrote in a recent report:</p><p>\"The end of a correction is usually accompanied by fear and capitulation-extreme volatility and volume.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58c264a99de8fa17fb25fc8ecfec7e5\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Craig W. Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, takes a similar view. He also expects the VIX to hit 40 and uses a metric he calls the \"40-week technique,\" which measures how many stocks are above or below the 40-week moving average, which has fallen to 13%, and if it is below 10%, it is likely to indicate that the market is near the bottom.</p><p>\"Historically, data below 10% indicates that the overall market is close to an inflection point,\" he wrote in a note.</p><p>MikeMullaney, head of global market research at Boston Partners, also pointed out that,<b>Corporate profit margins are likely to contract further</b>, so the possibility of U.S. stocks going down is higher than rising. In the future, analysts may lower the overall valuation until the bottom valuation appears. He said:</p><p>\"The most important question at present is whether the United States will achieve a soft landing or fall into a recession. If the Fed is committed to keeping inflation down to their current range, then we prefer a recession to a soft landing. And a recession may hit the P/E of the S&P 500 to about 13 times, a level that may indicate that almost all assets in the market are undervalued.\"<b>Valuations are attractive, but investors remain cautious</b></p><p>After the market value evaporated by $5.5 trillion, it is not easy for U.S. technology stocks to bottom out, but there are some signals that give investors hope.</p><p>Rising interest rates, concerns about slowing economic growth and soaring inflation have created a perfect storm to hit U.S. stocks. Technology stocks have been hit hard this year, whether it is retail investors who invested in Ark Investment last year or asset managers who invested in technology giants such as Apple. No one was spared.</p><p>The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index is down nearly 30% from last year's peak, recording seven consecutive weeks of losses and its longest losing streak since 2011. This makes its valuation look more attractive.</p><p>As the valuation bubble formed during the epidemic subsides,<b>The Nasdaq's current P/E is about 20 times expected earnings, in line with the long-term average.</b>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks chipmakers such as Intel Corp. and ASML Holding NV, has an expected P/E of about 15 times over the next 12 months, well below the peak of 24 times set in early 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/932197ffffd6f7b0420a45dbd728e229\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Jordan Stuart, portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said:</p><p>\"When there's so much carnage going on, it's hard for investors to be patient. But the pain should end soon. Our advice is growth investors need to be prepared.\" Last week, strategists at Jefferies turned bullish on the information technology sector and said in a note that investors' pursuit of cash in anticipation of an extreme interest rate scenario \"has been over-reflected in the compression of market valuations.\"</p><p>Wells Fargo Securities said it is abandoning negative views on growth stocks as bearish sentiment reaches extremes in the near term. In fact, the number of companies trading above the 200-day moving average has reached its lowest level since the first half of 2020, and a measure of investor enthusiasm in the stock market has reached the \"unambiguous contrarian buy territory.\"</p><p>For Kevin Mahn, who runs Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, cash-rich Apple and Microsoft will make up their stock price losses over time because \"most of the losses are over\" and there are some good buying opportunities emerging in tech.</p><p>However, he is also cautious about the timing of the rally, as the market has yet to show signs of capitulation. \"I certainly wouldn't call it a bottom, and I'm sure there will be more selling ahead,\" he said.</p><p>Like Mahn,<b>Many investors are torn between prices that now look more attractive and the reality that the outlook for the global economy remains highly uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Tech stocks are experiencing severe outflows.</b>A recent Bank of America survey showed that fund managers are \"extremely short\" on technology stocks, with allocations to the sector at their lowest levels since August 2006.</p><p><b>The options market is pointing to a potential rebound.</b>The $157 billion Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF options tracking the Nasdaq show that the put ratio based on open interest recently hit its lowest level in two years, while the open call option has soared to its highest level since 2008 (A decline in the put ratio is usually a bullish signal).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eef381bcbe9afd956ab0591ecf708ff\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street has huge differences in forecasts for the trend of U.S. stocks at the end of the year! 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Still guessing?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 14:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Wall Street's current gap between year-end forecasts for the S&P 500's highest and lowest is 37%.</p><p>U.S. stocks have fallen for seven consecutive weeks. Last Friday, the S&P 500 index fell as much as 2.3% and fell more than 20% in five months, threatening a bear market close. However, a sudden influx of buyers in the final hour narrowed its loss since Jan. 3 to 18.7%, avoiding a drop into a bear market again. This makes Wall Street prophets more and more confused about the trend of U.S. stocks as if they were back to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6391cd2811caa710d42772057d5207e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The difference is that the pandemic disruption has subsided somewhat, and the biggest blow now comes from the Federal Reserve, which is intent on squeezing excess money out of the economy. Coupled with the Russia-Ukraine war, supply chains are once again at risk of disruption, and stock valuations are at 20-year highs.</p><p>As a result, Wall Street's forecasts are very different. Six more strategists lowered their year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 this month,<b>The current gap between the highest and lowest projections reaches 37%.</b>This massive divergence has only occurred once over the same period of the past decade: right after the sell-off in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ad85b6d65a8e4418b8793f276a2d7f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Evidence of investor confusion is everywhere. Just this week, shares of Cathie Wood's flagship ETF, Ark Investment, and tech companies alternated between profits and losses for five consecutive days. At the same time, retail companies such as Wal-Mart, which served as safe havens during market turmoil, suddenly collapsed and plummeted due to thunderous earnings reports.</p><p>How bad could things get? For those who are bears, a recession is an inevitable result of the Fed's fight against inflation. Fed bulls may hope that it is moving towards its goal.</p><p>Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, said by phone:</p><p>\"The nature of the uncertainty we face is different, but Wall Street strategists don't have an easier job now than it was during the pandemic. There's no certainty about where the economy is headed. There's a'recession 'camp, a'soft landing camp,' and a variety of views in between.\" Currently, financial conditions are tightening at the fastest pace since 1987. The index of financial conditions tracked by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is down 1% since its first rate hike two months ago. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that,<b>The pace of tightening at this stage exceeds all five previous rate hike cycles.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e02f4d19d67c2256fd6abc17a1f02b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This week, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus (John Stoltzfus) reiterated his bullish stance in an interview with foreign media. His year-end price target is 5,330 points, the highest in the latest strategist survey. He sees parallels between exaggerating the decline in U.S. stocks now and in the past. He said:</p><p>\"Now my gut tells me that the current situation looks a lot like early 2009, like 1994, and like the fourth quarter of 2018. If you make negative predictions untimely, you will miss the rally afterwards.\" March 2009 marked the beginning of a long bull market in the wake of the global financial crisis. In 1994, the Federal Reserve began a rate hike cycle and successfully avoided a recession. The Federal Reserve halted its rate hike in late 2018 amid a plunge in stocks and began easing policy the following year.</p><p>At present, policymakers have little sympathy for the bloodshed in the markets. But investors haven't given up hope that the Fed will step in if things worsen, the expectation of a \"Fed put option.\"<b>In the latest Bank of America survey, fund managers expect \"Fed puts\" to take effect when the S&P index falls to 3,529, which is 9.5% below Friday's closing price.</b></p><p>However, markets have been slow to recover, frustrating even the least optimistic on Wall Street. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Eric Johnston has a year-end target of 3,900, the lowest among strategists tracked by Bloomberg. In early May, after the S&P 500 had its worst April performance in 50 years, he told clients that stocks were ready for a rebound. A few weeks later, the massacre showed no signs of abating, and he admitted his fault.</p><p><b>The biggest hidden worry: the bear market is approaching, but the panic is not here</b></p><p>To make matters worse, is the crash of U.S. stocks so far a panic? In some ways, the answer is no, which could bode bad for the stock market in the short term.</p><p>Even if U.S. stocks hit a bear market for the first time since March 2020,<b>Trading volume has been average</b>，<b>The Cboe Volatility Index is below this month's high.</b>At the same time,<b>CBOE SKEW Index (implied volatility of S&P 500 puts versus calls) is near two-year low</b>。</p><p>From a contrarian perspective, the relative lack of panic is not necessarily a good thing. AlphaTrAI analyst Max Gokhman believes that,<b>The S&P 500 is moving relatively orderly, with no obvious signs of panic, suggesting that the bottom has not yet emerged.</b>Coupled with the Fed's intention to continue to seek to tighten financial conditions, the outlook for U.S. stocks is bleak, and there may be more room for decline. Now the tightening cycle is only one-third of the way, and a recession is yet to occur.</p><p>Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives at Susquehanna International Group, said:</p><p>\"We usually see more volume at real lows, which is a sign of investor capitulation. The current volume is not representative, and I prefer to see a surge in volume to confirm the bottom of U.S. stocks. Be more confident.\" SentimenTrader analyst Jay Kaeppel said in an interview on Friday:</p><p>\"We have fears, doubts and anxiety, but we haven't capitulated. No one has sold stocks yet, although I think that will happen. Wake me up when the VIX (fear index) reaches 45, because looking back on history, every time the stock market A big decline will be accompanied by a VIX soaring to 40 or 45, and the VIX is currently around 30.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2299f3fd709ff49f919aa7601dc3ce\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, is watching for signs of capitulation on three fronts: VIX above 40; The ratio of sold options to call options trading volume (which evaluates the investment sentiment of the market) reached 1.35-currently 1.27; Stock trading volume exceeded 20 billion shares. He wrote in a recent report:</p><p>\"The end of a correction is usually accompanied by fear and capitulation-extreme volatility and volume.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58c264a99de8fa17fb25fc8ecfec7e5\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Craig W. Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, takes a similar view. He also expects the VIX to hit 40 and uses a metric he calls the \"40-week technique,\" which measures how many stocks are above or below the 40-week moving average, which has fallen to 13%, and if it is below 10%, it is likely to indicate that the market is near the bottom.</p><p>\"Historically, data below 10% indicates that the overall market is close to an inflection point,\" he wrote in a note.</p><p>MikeMullaney, head of global market research at Boston Partners, also pointed out that,<b>Corporate profit margins are likely to contract further</b>, so the possibility of U.S. stocks going down is higher than rising. In the future, analysts may lower the overall valuation until the bottom valuation appears. He said:</p><p>\"The most important question at present is whether the United States will achieve a soft landing or fall into a recession. If the Fed is committed to keeping inflation down to their current range, then we prefer a recession to a soft landing. And a recession may hit the P/E of the S&P 500 to about 13 times, a level that may indicate that almost all assets in the market are undervalued.\"<b>Valuations are attractive, but investors remain cautious</b></p><p>After the market value evaporated by $5.5 trillion, it is not easy for U.S. technology stocks to bottom out, but there are some signals that give investors hope.</p><p>Rising interest rates, concerns about slowing economic growth and soaring inflation have created a perfect storm to hit U.S. stocks. Technology stocks have been hit hard this year, whether it is retail investors who invested in Ark Investment last year or asset managers who invested in technology giants such as Apple. No one was spared.</p><p>The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index is down nearly 30% from last year's peak, recording seven consecutive weeks of losses and its longest losing streak since 2011. This makes its valuation look more attractive.</p><p>As the valuation bubble formed during the epidemic subsides,<b>The Nasdaq's current P/E is about 20 times expected earnings, in line with the long-term average.</b>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks chipmakers such as Intel Corp. and ASML Holding NV, has an expected P/E of about 15 times over the next 12 months, well below the peak of 24 times set in early 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/932197ffffd6f7b0420a45dbd728e229\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Jordan Stuart, portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said:</p><p>\"When there's so much carnage going on, it's hard for investors to be patient. But the pain should end soon. Our advice is growth investors need to be prepared.\" Last week, strategists at Jefferies turned bullish on the information technology sector and said in a note that investors' pursuit of cash in anticipation of an extreme interest rate scenario \"has been over-reflected in the compression of market valuations.\"</p><p>Wells Fargo Securities said it is abandoning negative views on growth stocks as bearish sentiment reaches extremes in the near term. In fact, the number of companies trading above the 200-day moving average has reached its lowest level since the first half of 2020, and a measure of investor enthusiasm in the stock market has reached the \"unambiguous contrarian buy territory.\"</p><p>For Kevin Mahn, who runs Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, cash-rich Apple and Microsoft will make up their stock price losses over time because \"most of the losses are over\" and there are some good buying opportunities emerging in tech.</p><p>However, he is also cautious about the timing of the rally, as the market has yet to show signs of capitulation. \"I certainly wouldn't call it a bottom, and I'm sure there will be more selling ahead,\" he said.</p><p>Like Mahn,<b>Many investors are torn between prices that now look more attractive and the reality that the outlook for the global economy remains highly uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Tech stocks are experiencing severe outflows.</b>A recent Bank of America survey showed that fund managers are \"extremely short\" on technology stocks, with allocations to the sector at their lowest levels since August 2006.</p><p><b>The options market is pointing to a potential rebound.</b>The $157 billion Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF options tracking the Nasdaq show that the put ratio based on open interest recently hit its lowest level in two years, while the open call option has soared to its highest level since 2008 (A decline in the put ratio is usually a bullish signal).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eef381bcbe9afd956ab0591ecf708ff\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94453\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94453","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126352915","content_text":"华尔街目前对标普500指数年底最高和最低预测之间的差距达到了37%。美股连续七周下跌，上周五标普500指数一度下跌多达2.3%，五个月内下跌超过20%，险熊市收盘的风险。然而，买家在最后一小时突然涌入，使其自1月3日以来的跌幅收窄至18.7%，再次避免跌入熊市。这让华尔街的预言家们像回到新冠疫情爆发初期一样，对美股的走势越来越摸不着头脑。不同的是，疫情的扰乱已经有所消退，而现在最重大的打击来自美联储，它一心想从经济中榨取过剩的资金。再加上俄乌战争，供应链再度面临破坏的风险，股票估值处于20年来的高位。结果就是，华尔街的预测结果大相径庭。本月又有六位策略师下调了对标普500指数的年终预期，目前最高和最低预测之间的差距达到了37%。在过去十年的同期，这种巨大的分歧只出现过一次：就在2020年3月的抛售之后。投资者困惑的证据无处不在。就在本周，Cathie Wood的旗舰ETF方舟投资（Ark Investment）和科技公司的股价连续五天在盈亏之间交替。与此同时，沃尔玛等在市场动荡期间作为避风港的零售公司因财报爆雷突然崩溃大跌。事情会变得多糟糕？对于那些看空者来说，衰退是美联储对抗通胀的不可避免的结果。看好美联储的人可能会寄希望于其正在朝着目标前进。LPL Financial首席股票策略师昆西·克劳斯比（Quincy Krosby）在电话中说:“我们面临的不确定性的性质不同了，但华尔街策略师现在的工作并不比疫情期间容易。经济走向没有确定性。有‘衰退’阵营、‘软着陆阵营’，以及介于两者之间的各种观点。”当前，金融环境收紧的速度是自1987年以来最快的。高盛集团追踪的金融状况指数自两个月前首次加息以来已下跌1%。彭博汇编的数据显示，现阶段的紧缩步伐超过了之前所有五个加息周期。本周，奥本海默的约翰·斯托尔茨福斯（John Stoltzfus）在接受外媒采访时重申了他的看涨立场，他的年终目标价为5330点，是最新的策略师调查中最高的。他看到了现在和过去夸大美股跌势之间的相似之处。他说：“现在我的直觉告诉我，当前的情形看起来很像2009年初，像1994年，也像2018年第四季度。如果你不合时宜地做出负面预测，你就会错过之后的反弹。”2009年3月标志着在全球金融危机后长期牛市的开始。1994年，美联储开始了加息周期并成功避免了经济衰退。2018年底，在股市暴跌的情况下，美联储停止了加息，并于次年开始放宽政策。目前，政策制定者对市场的流血几乎没有同情之心。但投资者并未放弃在情况恶化时美联储介入的希望，即对“美联储看跌期权”的预期。在美国银行最新的调查中，基金经理预计，当标普指数跌至3529点时，“美联储看跌期权”将开始生效，该水平比上周五收盘价低9.5%。然而，市场迟迟未能复苏，令华尔街上最不乐观的人也感到沮丧。Cantor Fitzgerald分析师Eric Johnston的年终目标为3900点，这是彭博追踪的策略师中最低的。5月初，在标普500指数出现50年来最糟糕的4月表现之后，他告诉客户，股市已经准备好反弹。几周后，大屠杀没有减弱的迹象，他承认了自己的过失。最大的隐忧：熊市将至，但恐慌未至更糟糕的是，迄今为止，美股的崩盘是否是一场恐慌？从某些方面来看，答案是否定的，这可能在短期内对股市来说是个坏兆头。即使美股自2020年3月以来首次触及熊市，但交易量一直处于平均水平，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数低于本月的高点。与此同时，芝加哥期权交易所SKEW指数（标普500看跌期权相对于看涨期权的隐含波动率）接近两年低点。从逆向的角度来看，相对缺乏恐慌不一定是好事。AlphaTrAI分析师Max Gokhman认为，标普500指数的走势相对有序，没有任何明显的恐慌迹象，这表明底部尚未出现。再加上美联储打算继续寻求收紧金融条件，美股前景黯淡，可能还有更多的下跌空间。现在紧缩周期仅进行了三分之一，而衰退尚未出现。Susquehanna International Group衍生品联席主管Chris Murphy表示：“我们通常会在真正的低点看到更多成交量，这是投资者投降的迹象。而目前的成交量并没有什么代表性，我更愿意看到成交量激增，以便对确认美股的底部更有信心。”SentimenTrader分析师Jay Kaeppel上周五在接受采访时说：“我们有恐惧、怀疑和焦虑，但我们没有投降。还没有人抛售股票，虽然我认为这种情况会发生。等VIX（恐慌指数）达到45时再叫醒我，因为回顾历史，每次股市大幅下跌都会伴随着VIX飙升到40或45，而VIX目前在30左右。”Evercore ISI首席股票和量化策略师朱利安·伊曼纽尔（Julian Emanuel）正在观察三个方面的投降迹象：VIX高于40；出售期权与买入期权交易量比率（评估市场的投资气氛）达到1.35——当前为1.27；股票成交量超过200亿股。他在最近的一份报告中写道：“修正的结束通常伴随着恐惧和投降——极端波动和成交量。”Piper Sandler的首席市场技术人员Craig W.Johnson也持类似观点。他也预计波动率指数将触及40点，并使用了一项他称之为“40周技术”的指标，该指标衡量有多少只股票高于或低于40周移动平均线，该指标已降至13%，如果低于10%，就有可能表明市场已经接近底部。他在一份报告中写道，“历史上，低于10%的数据表明，整体市场接近拐点”。Boston Partners全球市场研究主管MikeMullaney还指出，企业利润率有可能进一步收缩，所以美股下行的可能性要高于上涨，未来分析师可能会下调整体估值，直至底部估值的出现。他表示：“目前最重要的问题是美国会否实现经济软着陆，还是会陷入经济衰退。如果美联储致力于将通胀压低至他们的目前区间，那么我们更倾向于衰退而不是软着陆。而经济衰退可能将标普500的市盈率打到13倍左右，届时这个水平可能表明市场上几乎所有的资产都被低估了。”估值吸引力十足，但投资者仍保持谨慎在市值蒸发5.5万亿美元后，美股科技股触底尚不容易，但有一些信号给投资者带来了希望。利率上升、对经济增长放缓的担忧和通胀飙升形成了冲击美股的完美风暴，科技股今年受到重创，不论是去年投资方舟投资（Ark Investment）的散户，还是投资苹果等科技巨头的资产管理公司，无一幸免遇难。以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数较去年的峰值下跌了近30%，连续7周录得下跌，创自2011年以来最长的连跌。这使得其估值看起来更有吸引力。随着疫情期间形成的估值泡沫消退，纳指目前的市盈率约为预期收益的20倍，与长期平均水平一致。追踪英特尔（Intel Corp.）和阿斯麦控股（ASML Holding NV）等芯片制造商的费城半导体指数（Philadelphia Semiconductor Index）未来12个月预期市盈率约为15倍，远低于2021年初创下的24倍的峰值。Federated Hermes的投资组合经理Jordan Stuart说：“当发生如此多的屠杀时，投资者很难保有耐心。但这种痛苦应该很快就会结束。我们的建议是成长型投资者需要做好准备。”上周，杰富瑞的策略师转而看好信息技术行业，并在一份报告中表示，投资者因对极端利率情景的预期而追捧现金的情况“已过度反映在市场估值的压缩上”。富国银行证券表示，由于看跌情绪在近期达到极端，它正在放弃对成长股的负面看法。事实上，交易价格高于200天移动平均线的公司数量已经达到了2020年上半年以来的最低水平，而一项衡量股市投资者热情的指标已经到达“明确的反向投资者买入区域”（unambiguous contrarian buy territory）。对于经营Hennion & Walsh Asset Management的Kevin Mahn来说，现金充裕的苹果和微软将随着时间的推移弥补股价亏损，因为“大部分亏损已经结束”，而且科技领域正在出现一些好的买入机会。然而，他也对反弹的时机持谨慎态度，因为市场尚未出现投降的迹象。“我当然不会称之为底部，而且我确信未来还会有更多的抛售”，他说。与Mahn一样，许多投资者在现在看起来更具吸引力的价格与全球经济前景仍然高度不确定的现实之间左右为难。科技股的资金外流严重。美国银行最近的一项调查显示，基金经理“极度做空”科技股，对该行业的配置处于2006年8月以来的最低水平。期权市场却指向潜在的反弹。追踪纳指的规模达1570亿美元的Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF期权显示基于未平仓合约的看跌期权比率最近触及两年来的最低水平，未平仓的看涨期权则已飙升至2008年以来的最高水平（看跌期权比率的下降通常是看涨信号）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863788478,"gmtCreate":1632436903594,"gmtModify":1676530780344,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863788478","repostId":"2169665501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2169665501","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1632370388,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2169665501?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-23 12:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Comments on the Fed's interest rate meeting: The boots basically landed, Powell took away the \"wine glass\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169665501","media":"新浪财经","summary":"核心观点\n9月议息会议，美联储维持基准利率和购债规模不变，声明中提及“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”。经济预测和点阵图显示加息预期进一步提前。鲍威尔讲话较为鹰派，表示缩减购债规模","content":"<p>CORE POINT</p><p>At the September interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate and the scale of bond purchases unchanged. The statement mentioned that \"if progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may soon slow down.\" Economic forecasts and dot plots show that rate hike expectations are further ahead of schedule. Powell's speech was more hawkish, saying conditions for tapering bond purchases could be met as early as the next meeting. We believe that according to the statement of this meeting and Powell's speech, Taper may be announced in November and implemented in December. The pace may be to reduce bond purchases by US $15 billion per month and end in the middle of next year. The inflection point of US Treasury yields may depend on the debt ceiling resolution time.</p><p>Results of the interest rate meeting: In terms of interest rate instruments, at this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25%; In terms of asset purchases, the Fed said that \"if progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may soon slow down\" and reiterated that it will continue to \"until substantial progress is made in achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.\" Purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month. In terms of economic expectations, the Federal Reserve added that \"in recent months, the situation in the industries most affected by the pandemic has improved, but the increase in cases has delayed the progress of recovery\", and the description of inflation has been changed from \"has risen\" to \"is elevated)\", but it is still temporary.</p><p>Policy rate forecast and economic outlook forecast: The dot plot of policy rate forecast shows that all policymakers expect the Federal Funds rate to remain close to zero by the end of 2021, with 9 members expected to be in rate hike in 2022 and 17 members expected to be in rate hike in 2023. In terms of economic outlook forecast, the Federal Reserve significantly lowered its economic growth forecast for this year and raised its inflation forecast. GDP growth is expected to be 5.9% in 2021, and 7.0% is expected in June this year; The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.8% in 2021, and 4.5% in June this year; The PCE inflation rate is expected to be 4.2% in 2021, compared with 3.4% in June this year; Core PCE inflation is expected to be 3.7% in 2021, compared with 3.0% expected in June this year.</p><p>Highlights from Powell's speech: Substantial progress has been made on inflation; For themselves and many FOMC members, substantial progress has been made on employment issues; The wording in the statement means that conditions for tapering bond purchases could be met as early as the next meeting. If the economy continues to move in line with expectations, tightening measures can easily be introduced at the next meeting, and the tapering of bond purchases may end around the middle of next year. Tapering will be gradual and is not expected to need to accelerate the pace of tapering; When evaluating maximum employment, it does look at different demographic indicators, and the persistent racial disparity in unemployment rate is quite disturbing.</p><p>Recent fundamentals in the United States: In terms of the epidemic, the number of newly confirmed cases in Novel Coronavirus has dropped, and the margin of the epidemic has slowed down. In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm employment continued to grow, but the increase in August was far lower than expected, hitting a new low since January 2021. Residents' intensified concerns about the epidemic are the main reason why the number of new non-farm employment is far lower than market expectations.. In terms of inflation, PPI hit a new high in August, and CPI growth slowed down but remained at a high level. Energy is the main growth item of CPI, and market inflation expectations have eased. In terms of consumption, retail sales data in August greatly exceeded market expectations, and consumer confidence showed a marginal positive trend. In terms of investment, the growth rate of new orders for durable goods continued to improve, but the margin has slowed down. In terms of economic prosperity, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in August showed that the economic recovery slowed down, but it was still in a relatively high expansion range.</p><p>Taper's boots basically landed, and Powell took away the \"wine glass\" and didn't sing \"pigeon\". The statement of this interest rate meeting clearly gave information for the first time on reducing the scale of bond purchases. Powell also focused more on Taper in his subsequent speeches. At the same time, he did not continue his usual \"dove\" remarks in the past, but paved the way for Taper more. Judging from the statement of the interest rate meeting that first mentioned the reduction of bond purchases and Powell's subsequent statements, Taper's boots have basically landed.</p><p>Dot plots and economic forecasts continue to show that rate hike expectations are ahead of schedule, and the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than the market expects. At this meeting, dot plots and economic forecasts show that the Fed is optimistic about long-term economic growth and more worried about inflation. At the same time, Powell did not blindly emphasize at the press conference that the dot plot is just a personal prediction as in June, indicating that the rate hike shown in this dot plot indicates that the policy may change in advance. Under the pressure of high inflation and financial stability, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than market expectations.</p><p>Taper may be announced in November and implemented in December. The pace may be to reduce bond purchases by US $15 billion per month and end in the middle of next year. The inflection point of the US Treasury yields may depend on the time when the debt ceiling is resolved. If employment does not deteriorate more than expected, then the Federal Reserve will most likely announce the Taper at the next November FOMC interest rate meeting and implement the Taper from December. Regarding the rhythm of Taper, it is necessary to ensure that Taper ends in the middle of next year. If according to the experience of the previous round, the rhythm of bond purchases is reduced by US $15 billion at each interest rate meeting, then Taper will end in the third quarter of next year. Therefore, we believe that this round of Taper cannot be ruled out. It will be carried out at a monthly reduction of US $15 billion until the middle of next year. With the continuity of Fed communication, the current Taper is no longer the core factor determining the inflection point of US Treasury yields. The inflection point of US Treasury yields may depend on the settlement time of the U.S. debt ceiling, which may appear near the end of October.</p><p>text</p><p>Results of interest rate meeting</p><p>In terms of interest rate tools, at this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, reiterating that it will keep interest rates at the current level until it achieves its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. The Board voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 0.15% effective September 23, 2021. The basic credit interest rate remained unchanged at 0.25% and continued to remain unchanged, in line with market expectations.</p><p>In terms of asset purchases, the Fed said that \"if progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may slow down soon.\" The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to buy Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"before making substantial progress in achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals\", and increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and buy CMBS according to the need to promote smooth market operation and provide loose financial conditions, thus supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses; Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations with a quoted interest rate of 0.05%, with a daily trading limit of US $160 billion per party.</p><p>In terms of economic expectations, the Federal Reserve added that \"in recent months, the situation in the industries most affected by the pandemic has improved, but the increase in cases has delayed the progress of recovery\"; The description of inflation was changed from \"has risen\" to \"is elevated\". Economic activity and employment indicators continue to strengthen as vaccination progresses and strong policy support. Sectors hardest hit by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but rising COVID-19 cases have slowed their recovery. The rise in inflation mainly reflects temporary factors. The path of economic evolution continues to depend on the development process of the virus. Progress on vaccination is likely to continue to reduce the economic impact of the public health crisis, but risks to the economic outlook remain.</p><p>Federal Reserve Policy Rate Forecast and Economic Forecast</p><p>At this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve updated its policy interest rate forecast and economic forecast. The dot plot of policy rate forecasts shows that all policymakers expect Federal Funds rate to remain close to zero by the end of 2021, with 9 members expected to be in rate hike in 2022, 17 members expected to be in rate hike in 2023, and possibly in 2024. rate hike 6-7 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2548ac654d0266737d70a1c610987d9e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. economic outlook forecast, in terms of economic growth, the Federal Reserve expects GDP growth of 5.9% in 2021 and 7.0% in June this year; It is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2022 and 3.3% in June this year; It is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2023 and 2.4% in June this year; Expected growth of 2.0% in 2024; The longer cycle is expected to grow by 1.8%, and it is expected to grow by 1.8% in June this year.</p><p>In terms of unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve expects it to be 4.8% in 2021 and 4.5% in June this year; It is expected to be 3.8% in 2022 and 3.8% in June this year; It is expected to be 3.5% in 2023 and 3.5% in June this year; Expected growth of 3.5% in 2024; The longer cycle is expected to be 4.0%, and 4.0% is expected in June this year.</p><p>In terms of inflation, the Federal Reserve expects the PCE inflation rate to be 4.2% in 2021, and 3.4% in June this year; It is expected to be 2.2% in 2022 and 2.1% in June this year; It is expected to be 2.2% in 2023 and 2.2% in June this year; Expected growth of 2.1% in 2024; The longer cycle is expected to be 2.0%, and 2.0% is expected in June this year. The core PCE inflation rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2021, compared with 3.0% expected in June this year; It is expected to be 2.3% in 2022 and 2.1% in June this year; It is expected to be 2.2% in 2023 and 2.1% in June this year; It expects growth of 2.1% in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337179c001ee4d2f009760e7065ceb7f\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Powell's speech</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that day: If the economic trend continues to be consistent with expectations, tightening measures can easily be taken at the next meeting. The Committee today discussed progress towards its goals, with substantial progress on employment, both for itself and for many FOMC members. If progress continues, tapering could soon be warranted, with tapering likely to end around the middle of next year.</p><p>In terms of Taper, Powell said: Substantial progress has been made in inflation; For themselves and many FOMC members, substantial progress has been made on employment issues; The wording in the statement implies that tapering could be met as early as the next meeting; Most FOMC members support tapering's timing and speed; Asset purchases still have their uses, but now is the time to scale back. There will be no rate hike until the tapering program ends. If the timing is right, the Fed can certainly speed up or slow down its tapering of bond purchases. Tapering will be gradual and is not expected to need to accelerate the pace of tapering; When evaluating maximum employment, it does look at different demographic indicators.</p><p>In terms of economic expectations, Powell said: There are still risks in the economic outlook; Delta strain slows economic recovery; Continued progress in vaccination will support a return to a more normal state of the economy; Growth is likely to continue at a strong pace for the rest of the year; The recovery of industries affected by the pandemic is slow; Supply constraints inhibit economic activity.</p><p>In terms of employment, Powell said: labor demand is very strong, the unemployment rate overestimates the employment gap, care needs and ongoing concerns about the virus affect job growth, but should disappear over time; There is still a lot of idle space in the labor market; Many members of the Federal Open Market Committee believe that substantial further progress has been made on employment, with the view that it is \"almost reached\". The Delta strain has affected people returning to work, and it may take more time for people to get back to work; The persistent racial disparity in unemployment is quite troubling, and eliminating racial disparities is something fiscal policy is more suitable for than the Fed's tools.</p><p>In terms of inflation, Powell said: Inflation is rising and may continue for months before easing; Supply bottlenecks, hiring difficulties may again be bigger and longer-lasting than expected. The measure of long-term inflation expectations remains consistent with the long-term inflation target, and if persistently high inflation is a concern, we will certainly respond. Inflation forecasts for this year and the years ahead have risen, reflecting that bottlenecks and shortages have not yet been mitigated in a \"meaningful way\".</p><p>In terms of debt ceiling, Powell said: It is very important to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner; Failure to do so could cause serious damage to the economy; The United States should not default, and no one should assume that the Fed can fully protect the market or the economy in the event of a default.</p><p>US Recent Fundamentals</p><p>Recently, the number of newly confirmed cases in Novel Coronavirus has dropped, and the epidemic situation in the United States has slowed down marginally. As of September 21, 2021, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Novel Coronavirus, USA reached 43.24 million, and the cumulative number of deaths was 700,000. The number of confirmed cases in Novel Coronavirus, USA that day was 130,000, a decrease of 80,000 from the previous day. The slowdown in the spread of the epidemic in the United States may be related to the gradual increase in vaccine penetration rate. The number of newly confirmed cases in Novel Coronavirus, USA, has shown a downward trend since September 13.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d108a0b4de776878602633cbfcca1a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of employment, from the perspective of changes in non-farm employment, the number of non-farm employment in the United States increased by 235,000 after seasonally adjustment in August, and is expected to increase by 720,000. The number of new non-farm employment hit a new low since January 2021, while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.2%, the lowest since March 2020. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in August was much lower than the previous value and market expectations. Judging from the trend of new non-farm payrolls, despite the acceleration of vaccination in the United States and the early suspension of unemployment benefits in some states Driven by this, the number of new non-farm payrolls increased significantly in June and July, continuously higher than market expectations. However, the previous non-farm employment data did not reflect the disturbance brought to the job market by the rebound of the epidemic caused by the new round of Delta mutant strains. The non-farm employment data in August was far lower than market expectations due to the disturbance of the epidemic.</p><p>The Delta mutant strain has caused the epidemic to rebound, and residents' worries about the epidemic have intensified, which is the main reason why the number of new non-farm employment is far lower than market expectations. Specifically, the unexpected zero growth of the leisure hotel industry, the main source of new non-farm employment, led to weaker-than-expected non-farm employment data, a decrease of approximately 415,000 compared with July. The professional and commercial services industry maintained its increase, recording 74,000 employees, a decrease of about 5,000 from the previous month, but it still became the industry with the largest number of new non-farm employment in August, and the warehousing and transportation industry increased by 53,200 employees. The number of people employed in government departments decreased by about 263,000 month-on-month, from an increase of 255,000 in the previous value to a decrease of 8,000 in the current value; And the number of new jobs in education and health services decreased by about 53,000 month-on-month. From the perspective of industry data, the slowdown in employment growth in the U.S. service industry is one of the main factors that cause employment to be significantly lower than the overall growth rate. The impact of the new round of epidemic on consumption and employment activities is higher than expected. While the peak of a new round of infections caused by the Delta strain has not yet passed, people's spontaneous reduction in going out has continued to impact economic activities, personal education and return to work. Plans have also been disrupted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbde1a3a84487e70f3a8cafc8473e0ca\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"1040\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of inflation, PPI hit a new high in August, CPI growth slowed down, and energy was the main growth item of CPI. In August, the unseasonally adjusted CPI increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and was expected to increase by 5.3%; The unseasonally adjusted core CPI increased by 4.0% year-on-year, compared with expected growth of 4.2%. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and is expected to increase by 0.4%; The seasonally adjusted core CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and was expected to increase by 0.3%. PPI increased by 8.3% year-on-year, hitting another record high. The highest year-on-year CPI growth rate in August was still the energy item. The rise in transportation services and second-hand car prices that promoted the continuous rise of CPI in the early stage have converged. Energy prices rose by 25% year-on-year, of which gasoline prices increased by 2.8% month-on-month and 42.7% year-on-year, and food prices rose by 3.7% year-on-year. Although the CPI remained high year-on-year in August, the increase slowed down and market inflation expectations eased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6326a1fede7bd4665cc7d69bff8419\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb465d85d4fd8a7dfb1db447f3ee113\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of consumption, retail sales data greatly exceeded market expectations, and consumer confidence showed a marginal positive trend. U.S. retail sales data in August increased by 0.7% month-on-month, far exceeding market expectations of-0.7% and a year-on-year increase of 15.37%. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released by the United States rose slightly to 71 in September, and the final value in August was 70.3, slightly exceeding expectations. The increase in new crown cases due to the spread of the Delta strain is slowing down, and the consumer confidence index may continue to rebound. However, compared with spring and pre-epidemic levels, under the influence of the epidemic, the current market sentiment is still sluggish.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a920b65ab2b007e867991d1226c0d5e\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"846\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of investment, new orders for durable goods in the United States have fluctuated year-on-year recently, recording 10.99% year-on-year in July and 24.17% year-on-year in June, continuing to be positive since November 2020, reflecting the improvement of investment conditions in the United States, but marginal growth The rate has slowed down. Seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods in the United States except transportation increased by 15.56% year-on-year in July, compared with 18.50% year-on-year in June. The continued growth of new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods other than transportation may reflect the continued improvement of investment conditions in the United States, but the marginal growth rate has slowed down.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e191ff9b409bc4d397c7d3ab0eb87d8b\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of economic prosperity, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI in August showed a slowdown in recovery, but it was still at a relatively high level. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 59.9, slightly higher than 59.5 in July, but there was still a certain gap from 61.2 in May. Affected by the rebound of the epidemic, the recovery progress was hindered. In terms of sub-items, prices have changed significantly, from 85.7 in July to 79.4, and supplier deliveries have dropped slightly from 72.5 in July to 69.5. The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI in August was 61.7, a significant drop from 64.1 in July. In terms of sub-items, the business activity index was 60.1, down 6.9 percentage points from 67 last month, hitting a six-month low, highlighting that the Delta mutant strain is reducing people's demand for dining out, leisure and travel; The employment sub-item dropped slightly from 53.8 to 53.7; The inventory sub-item fell to 46.9 in August from 49.2 in July, falling to its lowest level in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346bea160af4b48bf00689f24f779c95\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>remark</p><p>Taper's boots basically landed, and Powell took away the \"wine glass\" and didn't sing \"pigeon\". The statement of this interest rate meeting clearly gave information for the first time on reducing the scale of bond purchases, that is, \"if the progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may slow down soon.\" Powell also focused more on Taper in his subsequent speeches. At the same time, he did not continue the usual \"dove\" remarks in the past, but paved the way for Taper more. For example, inflation has made substantial progress, and many FOMC members said that the employment issue has made substantial progress. Substantial progress, the wording in the statement means that the conditions for reducing the scale of bond purchases may be met as early as the next meeting, etc. Judging from the statement of the interest rate meeting that first mentioned the reduction of bond purchases and Powell's subsequent statements, Taper's boots have basically landed.</p><p>Dot plots and economic forecasts continue to show that rate hike expectations are ahead of schedule, and the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than the market expects. At this meeting, all policy makers predicted that the Federal Funds rate would remain close to zero by the end of 2021. Nine members were expected to be in rate hike in 2022, 17 members were expected to be in rate hike in 2023, and possibly in rate hike in 2024. 6-7 times. At the June interest rate meeting, all policymakers expected Federal Funds rate to remain close to zero by the end of 2021, with 7 members expected to be in rate hike in 2022 and 13 members expected to be in rate hike in 2023. In the economic forecast, the Federal Reserve significantly lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year, but raised its GDP growth forecast for 2022 and 2023. At the same time, it significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year and slightly raised its inflation forecast for 2022, indicating that the Federal Reserve is optimistic about long-term economic growth and more worried about inflation. At the same time, Powell did not blindly emphasize at the press conference that the dot plot is just a personal prediction as in June, indicating that the rate hike shown in this dot plot indicates that the policy may change in advance. Under the pressure of high inflation and financial stability, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than market expectations.</p><p>Taper may be announced in November and implemented in December. The pace may be to reduce bond purchases by US $15 billion per month and end in the middle of next year. The inflection point of the US Treasury yields may depend on the time when the debt ceiling is resolved. According to the statement of this interest rate meeting and Powell's speech, if employment does not deteriorate more than expected, then the Federal Reserve will most likely announce the Taper at the next November FOMC interest rate meeting and implement the Taper from December. Regarding the rhythm of Taper, it is necessary to ensure that Taper ends in the middle of next year. If according to the experience of the previous round, the rhythm of bond purchases is reduced by US $15 billion at each interest rate meeting, then Taper will end in the third quarter of next year. Therefore, we believe that this round of Taper cannot be ruled out. It will be carried out at a monthly reduction of US $15 billion until the middle of next year. With the continuity of Fed communication, the current Taper is no longer the core factor determining the inflection point of US Treasury yields. The inflection point of US Treasury yields may depend on the settlement time of the U.S. debt ceiling, which may appear near the end of October.</p><p>MARKET REVIEW</p><p>Interest rate bonds</p><p>Capital market review</p><p>On September 22, 2021, the interbank pledged repo weighted interest rates were mixed, with overnight, 7-day, 14-day, 21-day and 1-month changes of 4.70 bps,-1.54 bps, 9.10 bps, 0.67 bp and-1.68 bps to 2.15%, 2.23%, 2.46%, 2.60% and 2.60%, respectively. Treasury Bond yields to maturity generally declined, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year changes of-5.87 bps,-2.12 bps,-0.87 bp, and-0.78 bp to 2.33%, 2.56%, 2.71%, and 2.86% respectively. On September 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.40% to 3628.49, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.57% to 14277.08, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.91% to 3164.33.</p><p>The central bank announced that in order to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the quarter, on September 22, 60 billion yuan of 7-day and 60 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations were carried out through interest rate bidding. Today, the central bank launched 60 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations and 60 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations in the open market. 30 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, achieving a net liquidity investment of 90 billion yuan. In addition, there are still 60 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase due from Thursday to Friday, 70 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits due on Friday, and 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due on Sunday.</p><p>Liquidity dynamic monitoring</p><p>We track the market liquidity situation and observe the \"investment and receipt\" of liquidity since the beginning of 2017. In terms of increment, we calculate the total investment amount based on the scale of central bank open market operations such as reverse repurchase, SLF and MLF, and treasury cash fixed deposits; In terms of reduction, based on the cumulative increase of 1,601.066 billion yuan in M0 compared with December 2016 in December 2020, the cumulative decrease of 811.716 billion yuan in foreign exchange holdings, and the cumulative increase of 986.866 billion yuan in fiscal deposits, we roughly estimate that through residents' cash withdrawals, the decrease of foreign holdings and the liquidity lost by tax revenue, and considering the maturity of open market operations, calculate the total daily liquidity reduction. At the same time, we monitor the maturity of open market operations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a306434fbba9a99088fd2e91d87d106\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"1136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bonds</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Review</p><p>In the convertible bond market on September 22, the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 415.11 points, up 0.43% daily, the Convertible Bond Index closed at 1735.61 points, up 0.42% daily, and the Convertible Bond Plan Index closed at 1449.60 points, down 0.04% daily; The average convertible bond price is 144.52 yuan, and the average parity is 113.55 yuan. Of the 376 listed and traded convertible bonds, except for the suspension of Yingke Convertible Bonds, Jiuzhou Convertible Bonds and Qingshui Convertible Bonds, 191 rose, 1 traded sideways, and 181 fell. Among them, Mengdian Convertible Bonds (16.03%), Punai Convertible Bonds (14.42%) and Qixiang Convertible 2 (12.23%) led the gains, Shida Convertible Bonds (-12.29%), Hongxin Convertible Bonds (-8.20%) and Jiuwu Convertible Bonds (-5.86%) led the decline. Of the 370 convertible bond underlying shares, 171 rose, 8 traded sideways, and 191 fell. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688388\">Jiayuan Technology</a>（15.84%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300682\">Longshine Technology</a>(13.11%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600863\">Inner Mongolia Huadian</a>(10.08%) led the gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002527\">Newstar</a>（-9.97%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300657\">Hongxin Electronics</a>(-9.31%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300631\">Jiuwu High-Tech</a>(-8.04%) led the losses.</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Week Views</p><p>Last week, the market first rose and then fell, and the convertible bond index rose and then fell back quickly. From a structural point of view, the market style has shown a relatively obvious balance. The pharmaceutical and other sectors that were hit hard in the early stage have begun to strengthen, while the strong cyclical sectors have adjusted significantly.</p><p>Recently, there has been a lot of discussion on the valuation of convertible bonds in the market. Last week, the valuation of stocks was also compressed. However, we believe that valuation is not the core influencing factor of the current market. Further considering the large structural differentiation of valuation, the reference significance of the overall valuation level of the market has also declined. Strategically, we continue to move in a balanced direction, and now it is the stage of allocation rebalancing. We believe that the increase in market volatility is the stage of stepping up the layout in some directions. The core of balancing the direction is to select individual bonds. The alpha of the market is more obvious, and opportunities will not be limited. While convertible bonds maintain high flexibility, you can increase some positions to pay attention to underlying shares's low valuation targets with thick price safety cushions.</p><p>The cyclical sector is a variety whose fluctuations have increased rapidly recently. As the global economy begins to face growth pressure, it will further suppress the potential demand for commodities. At the same time, high upstream prices will also have a negative impact on downstream demand. Behind the upstream and downstream game, more attention is paid to directions where supply is limited or demand still has potential room to boost, such as crude oil, UHV, public utilities and environmental protection sectors.</p><p>Recently, the pan-consumer sector has encountered continuous impacts, among which emotions are suspected of overreacting to a certain extent. After the impact, it is still worth paying attention to this direction. With the decline of economic growth momentum, the consumer sector, which has undergone a lot of adjustments recently, may once again show stable characteristics. Although the epidemic has constituted a certain disturbance, there are many directions of sustained prosperity in consumption, and some targets have also hit new highs. Investors are advised to pay more attention to this direction. At the same time, we can increase our attention to the financial sector.</p><p>The growth and manufacturing direction that has been recommended in the past few months is also the structural hot spot of the current market, and there are still targets that continue to hit new highs in the near future. But looking forward to this direction, we should pay more attention to alpha. We suggest that the leading coupon configuration should be preferred. The main logical direction is recommended to be investigated from the two perspectives of domestic substitution and technological upgrading, focusing on semiconductors, auto parts, wind power, photovoltaics, pharmaceutical industry, communications and other sectors. But the current focus is on balancing the selection of positions and actively responding to fluctuations in market sentiment.</p><p>High flexibility portfolio suggestions focus on Dongcaizhuan 3, Xinchun Convertible Bonds, Slai Convertible Bonds, Jiayuan (Jinbo) Convertible Bonds, Jincheng (Binhua) Convertible Bonds, Aojia Convertible Bonds, Enjie Convertible Bonds, Jinko Convertible Bonds, Biyin Convertible Bonds and Jingda Convertible Bonds.</p><p>It is recommended to pay attention to Hangyin Convertible Bonds, Mona (Heilan) Convertible Bonds, Wangneng Convertible Bonds, Tianhao Convertible Bonds, Taihua Convertible Bonds, Tianneng (Funeng) Convertible Bonds, Wencan Convertible Bonds, Runjian Convertible Bonds and Langxin Convertible Bonds.</p><p>Risk Factors</p><p>Market liquidity fluctuated greatly, macroeconomic growth was not as good as expected, risk-free interest rates fluctuated greatly, and underlying shares's stock price fluctuated more than expected.</p><p>Stock Market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294bd133a63473e9163b00961accb856\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bond market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6a015caa67dc2b92dd786923292bd\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CITIC Securities Mingming Research Team</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1804bd2a58f1fc4b3242b88f2f02977b\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Comments on the Fed's interest rate meeting: The boots basically landed, Powell took away the \"wine glass\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nComments on the Fed's interest rate meeting: The boots basically landed, Powell took away the \"wine glass\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-23 12:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>CORE POINT</p><p>At the September interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate and the scale of bond purchases unchanged. The statement mentioned that \"if progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may soon slow down.\" Economic forecasts and dot plots show that rate hike expectations are further ahead of schedule. Powell's speech was more hawkish, saying conditions for tapering bond purchases could be met as early as the next meeting. We believe that according to the statement of this meeting and Powell's speech, Taper may be announced in November and implemented in December. The pace may be to reduce bond purchases by US $15 billion per month and end in the middle of next year. The inflection point of US Treasury yields may depend on the debt ceiling resolution time.</p><p>Results of the interest rate meeting: In terms of interest rate instruments, at this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25%; In terms of asset purchases, the Fed said that \"if progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may soon slow down\" and reiterated that it will continue to \"until substantial progress is made in achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.\" Purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month. In terms of economic expectations, the Federal Reserve added that \"in recent months, the situation in the industries most affected by the pandemic has improved, but the increase in cases has delayed the progress of recovery\", and the description of inflation has been changed from \"has risen\" to \"is elevated)\", but it is still temporary.</p><p>Policy rate forecast and economic outlook forecast: The dot plot of policy rate forecast shows that all policymakers expect the Federal Funds rate to remain close to zero by the end of 2021, with 9 members expected to be in rate hike in 2022 and 17 members expected to be in rate hike in 2023. In terms of economic outlook forecast, the Federal Reserve significantly lowered its economic growth forecast for this year and raised its inflation forecast. GDP growth is expected to be 5.9% in 2021, and 7.0% is expected in June this year; The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.8% in 2021, and 4.5% in June this year; The PCE inflation rate is expected to be 4.2% in 2021, compared with 3.4% in June this year; Core PCE inflation is expected to be 3.7% in 2021, compared with 3.0% expected in June this year.</p><p>Highlights from Powell's speech: Substantial progress has been made on inflation; For themselves and many FOMC members, substantial progress has been made on employment issues; The wording in the statement means that conditions for tapering bond purchases could be met as early as the next meeting. If the economy continues to move in line with expectations, tightening measures can easily be introduced at the next meeting, and the tapering of bond purchases may end around the middle of next year. Tapering will be gradual and is not expected to need to accelerate the pace of tapering; When evaluating maximum employment, it does look at different demographic indicators, and the persistent racial disparity in unemployment rate is quite disturbing.</p><p>Recent fundamentals in the United States: In terms of the epidemic, the number of newly confirmed cases in Novel Coronavirus has dropped, and the margin of the epidemic has slowed down. In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm employment continued to grow, but the increase in August was far lower than expected, hitting a new low since January 2021. Residents' intensified concerns about the epidemic are the main reason why the number of new non-farm employment is far lower than market expectations.. In terms of inflation, PPI hit a new high in August, and CPI growth slowed down but remained at a high level. Energy is the main growth item of CPI, and market inflation expectations have eased. In terms of consumption, retail sales data in August greatly exceeded market expectations, and consumer confidence showed a marginal positive trend. In terms of investment, the growth rate of new orders for durable goods continued to improve, but the margin has slowed down. In terms of economic prosperity, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in August showed that the economic recovery slowed down, but it was still in a relatively high expansion range.</p><p>Taper's boots basically landed, and Powell took away the \"wine glass\" and didn't sing \"pigeon\". The statement of this interest rate meeting clearly gave information for the first time on reducing the scale of bond purchases. Powell also focused more on Taper in his subsequent speeches. At the same time, he did not continue his usual \"dove\" remarks in the past, but paved the way for Taper more. Judging from the statement of the interest rate meeting that first mentioned the reduction of bond purchases and Powell's subsequent statements, Taper's boots have basically landed.</p><p>Dot plots and economic forecasts continue to show that rate hike expectations are ahead of schedule, and the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than the market expects. At this meeting, dot plots and economic forecasts show that the Fed is optimistic about long-term economic growth and more worried about inflation. At the same time, Powell did not blindly emphasize at the press conference that the dot plot is just a personal prediction as in June, indicating that the rate hike shown in this dot plot indicates that the policy may change in advance. Under the pressure of high inflation and financial stability, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than market expectations.</p><p>Taper may be announced in November and implemented in December. The pace may be to reduce bond purchases by US $15 billion per month and end in the middle of next year. The inflection point of the US Treasury yields may depend on the time when the debt ceiling is resolved. If employment does not deteriorate more than expected, then the Federal Reserve will most likely announce the Taper at the next November FOMC interest rate meeting and implement the Taper from December. Regarding the rhythm of Taper, it is necessary to ensure that Taper ends in the middle of next year. If according to the experience of the previous round, the rhythm of bond purchases is reduced by US $15 billion at each interest rate meeting, then Taper will end in the third quarter of next year. Therefore, we believe that this round of Taper cannot be ruled out. It will be carried out at a monthly reduction of US $15 billion until the middle of next year. With the continuity of Fed communication, the current Taper is no longer the core factor determining the inflection point of US Treasury yields. The inflection point of US Treasury yields may depend on the settlement time of the U.S. debt ceiling, which may appear near the end of October.</p><p>text</p><p>Results of interest rate meeting</p><p>In terms of interest rate tools, at this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, reiterating that it will keep interest rates at the current level until it achieves its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability. The Board voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 0.15% effective September 23, 2021. The basic credit interest rate remained unchanged at 0.25% and continued to remain unchanged, in line with market expectations.</p><p>In terms of asset purchases, the Fed said that \"if progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may slow down soon.\" The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to buy Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"before making substantial progress in achieving the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals\", and increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and buy CMBS according to the need to promote smooth market operation and provide loose financial conditions, thus supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses; Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations with a quoted interest rate of 0.05%, with a daily trading limit of US $160 billion per party.</p><p>In terms of economic expectations, the Federal Reserve added that \"in recent months, the situation in the industries most affected by the pandemic has improved, but the increase in cases has delayed the progress of recovery\"; The description of inflation was changed from \"has risen\" to \"is elevated\". Economic activity and employment indicators continue to strengthen as vaccination progresses and strong policy support. Sectors hardest hit by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but rising COVID-19 cases have slowed their recovery. The rise in inflation mainly reflects temporary factors. The path of economic evolution continues to depend on the development process of the virus. Progress on vaccination is likely to continue to reduce the economic impact of the public health crisis, but risks to the economic outlook remain.</p><p>Federal Reserve Policy Rate Forecast and Economic Forecast</p><p>At this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve updated its policy interest rate forecast and economic forecast. The dot plot of policy rate forecasts shows that all policymakers expect Federal Funds rate to remain close to zero by the end of 2021, with 9 members expected to be in rate hike in 2022, 17 members expected to be in rate hike in 2023, and possibly in 2024. rate hike 6-7 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2548ac654d0266737d70a1c610987d9e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. economic outlook forecast, in terms of economic growth, the Federal Reserve expects GDP growth of 5.9% in 2021 and 7.0% in June this year; It is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2022 and 3.3% in June this year; It is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2023 and 2.4% in June this year; Expected growth of 2.0% in 2024; The longer cycle is expected to grow by 1.8%, and it is expected to grow by 1.8% in June this year.</p><p>In terms of unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve expects it to be 4.8% in 2021 and 4.5% in June this year; It is expected to be 3.8% in 2022 and 3.8% in June this year; It is expected to be 3.5% in 2023 and 3.5% in June this year; Expected growth of 3.5% in 2024; The longer cycle is expected to be 4.0%, and 4.0% is expected in June this year.</p><p>In terms of inflation, the Federal Reserve expects the PCE inflation rate to be 4.2% in 2021, and 3.4% in June this year; It is expected to be 2.2% in 2022 and 2.1% in June this year; It is expected to be 2.2% in 2023 and 2.2% in June this year; Expected growth of 2.1% in 2024; The longer cycle is expected to be 2.0%, and 2.0% is expected in June this year. The core PCE inflation rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2021, compared with 3.0% expected in June this year; It is expected to be 2.3% in 2022 and 2.1% in June this year; It is expected to be 2.2% in 2023 and 2.1% in June this year; It expects growth of 2.1% in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337179c001ee4d2f009760e7065ceb7f\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Powell's speech</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that day: If the economic trend continues to be consistent with expectations, tightening measures can easily be taken at the next meeting. The Committee today discussed progress towards its goals, with substantial progress on employment, both for itself and for many FOMC members. If progress continues, tapering could soon be warranted, with tapering likely to end around the middle of next year.</p><p>In terms of Taper, Powell said: Substantial progress has been made in inflation; For themselves and many FOMC members, substantial progress has been made on employment issues; The wording in the statement implies that tapering could be met as early as the next meeting; Most FOMC members support tapering's timing and speed; Asset purchases still have their uses, but now is the time to scale back. There will be no rate hike until the tapering program ends. If the timing is right, the Fed can certainly speed up or slow down its tapering of bond purchases. Tapering will be gradual and is not expected to need to accelerate the pace of tapering; When evaluating maximum employment, it does look at different demographic indicators.</p><p>In terms of economic expectations, Powell said: There are still risks in the economic outlook; Delta strain slows economic recovery; Continued progress in vaccination will support a return to a more normal state of the economy; Growth is likely to continue at a strong pace for the rest of the year; The recovery of industries affected by the pandemic is slow; Supply constraints inhibit economic activity.</p><p>In terms of employment, Powell said: labor demand is very strong, the unemployment rate overestimates the employment gap, care needs and ongoing concerns about the virus affect job growth, but should disappear over time; There is still a lot of idle space in the labor market; Many members of the Federal Open Market Committee believe that substantial further progress has been made on employment, with the view that it is \"almost reached\". The Delta strain has affected people returning to work, and it may take more time for people to get back to work; The persistent racial disparity in unemployment is quite troubling, and eliminating racial disparities is something fiscal policy is more suitable for than the Fed's tools.</p><p>In terms of inflation, Powell said: Inflation is rising and may continue for months before easing; Supply bottlenecks, hiring difficulties may again be bigger and longer-lasting than expected. The measure of long-term inflation expectations remains consistent with the long-term inflation target, and if persistently high inflation is a concern, we will certainly respond. Inflation forecasts for this year and the years ahead have risen, reflecting that bottlenecks and shortages have not yet been mitigated in a \"meaningful way\".</p><p>In terms of debt ceiling, Powell said: It is very important to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner; Failure to do so could cause serious damage to the economy; The United States should not default, and no one should assume that the Fed can fully protect the market or the economy in the event of a default.</p><p>US Recent Fundamentals</p><p>Recently, the number of newly confirmed cases in Novel Coronavirus has dropped, and the epidemic situation in the United States has slowed down marginally. As of September 21, 2021, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Novel Coronavirus, USA reached 43.24 million, and the cumulative number of deaths was 700,000. The number of confirmed cases in Novel Coronavirus, USA that day was 130,000, a decrease of 80,000 from the previous day. The slowdown in the spread of the epidemic in the United States may be related to the gradual increase in vaccine penetration rate. The number of newly confirmed cases in Novel Coronavirus, USA, has shown a downward trend since September 13.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d108a0b4de776878602633cbfcca1a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of employment, from the perspective of changes in non-farm employment, the number of non-farm employment in the United States increased by 235,000 after seasonally adjustment in August, and is expected to increase by 720,000. The number of new non-farm employment hit a new low since January 2021, while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.2%, the lowest since March 2020. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in August was much lower than the previous value and market expectations. Judging from the trend of new non-farm payrolls, despite the acceleration of vaccination in the United States and the early suspension of unemployment benefits in some states Driven by this, the number of new non-farm payrolls increased significantly in June and July, continuously higher than market expectations. However, the previous non-farm employment data did not reflect the disturbance brought to the job market by the rebound of the epidemic caused by the new round of Delta mutant strains. The non-farm employment data in August was far lower than market expectations due to the disturbance of the epidemic.</p><p>The Delta mutant strain has caused the epidemic to rebound, and residents' worries about the epidemic have intensified, which is the main reason why the number of new non-farm employment is far lower than market expectations. Specifically, the unexpected zero growth of the leisure hotel industry, the main source of new non-farm employment, led to weaker-than-expected non-farm employment data, a decrease of approximately 415,000 compared with July. The professional and commercial services industry maintained its increase, recording 74,000 employees, a decrease of about 5,000 from the previous month, but it still became the industry with the largest number of new non-farm employment in August, and the warehousing and transportation industry increased by 53,200 employees. The number of people employed in government departments decreased by about 263,000 month-on-month, from an increase of 255,000 in the previous value to a decrease of 8,000 in the current value; And the number of new jobs in education and health services decreased by about 53,000 month-on-month. From the perspective of industry data, the slowdown in employment growth in the U.S. service industry is one of the main factors that cause employment to be significantly lower than the overall growth rate. The impact of the new round of epidemic on consumption and employment activities is higher than expected. While the peak of a new round of infections caused by the Delta strain has not yet passed, people's spontaneous reduction in going out has continued to impact economic activities, personal education and return to work. Plans have also been disrupted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbde1a3a84487e70f3a8cafc8473e0ca\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"1040\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of inflation, PPI hit a new high in August, CPI growth slowed down, and energy was the main growth item of CPI. In August, the unseasonally adjusted CPI increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and was expected to increase by 5.3%; The unseasonally adjusted core CPI increased by 4.0% year-on-year, compared with expected growth of 4.2%. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and is expected to increase by 0.4%; The seasonally adjusted core CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and was expected to increase by 0.3%. PPI increased by 8.3% year-on-year, hitting another record high. The highest year-on-year CPI growth rate in August was still the energy item. The rise in transportation services and second-hand car prices that promoted the continuous rise of CPI in the early stage have converged. Energy prices rose by 25% year-on-year, of which gasoline prices increased by 2.8% month-on-month and 42.7% year-on-year, and food prices rose by 3.7% year-on-year. Although the CPI remained high year-on-year in August, the increase slowed down and market inflation expectations eased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6326a1fede7bd4665cc7d69bff8419\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb465d85d4fd8a7dfb1db447f3ee113\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of consumption, retail sales data greatly exceeded market expectations, and consumer confidence showed a marginal positive trend. U.S. retail sales data in August increased by 0.7% month-on-month, far exceeding market expectations of-0.7% and a year-on-year increase of 15.37%. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released by the United States rose slightly to 71 in September, and the final value in August was 70.3, slightly exceeding expectations. The increase in new crown cases due to the spread of the Delta strain is slowing down, and the consumer confidence index may continue to rebound. However, compared with spring and pre-epidemic levels, under the influence of the epidemic, the current market sentiment is still sluggish.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a920b65ab2b007e867991d1226c0d5e\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"846\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of investment, new orders for durable goods in the United States have fluctuated year-on-year recently, recording 10.99% year-on-year in July and 24.17% year-on-year in June, continuing to be positive since November 2020, reflecting the improvement of investment conditions in the United States, but marginal growth The rate has slowed down. Seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods in the United States except transportation increased by 15.56% year-on-year in July, compared with 18.50% year-on-year in June. The continued growth of new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods other than transportation may reflect the continued improvement of investment conditions in the United States, but the marginal growth rate has slowed down.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e191ff9b409bc4d397c7d3ab0eb87d8b\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of economic prosperity, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI in August showed a slowdown in recovery, but it was still at a relatively high level. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 59.9, slightly higher than 59.5 in July, but there was still a certain gap from 61.2 in May. Affected by the rebound of the epidemic, the recovery progress was hindered. In terms of sub-items, prices have changed significantly, from 85.7 in July to 79.4, and supplier deliveries have dropped slightly from 72.5 in July to 69.5. The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI in August was 61.7, a significant drop from 64.1 in July. In terms of sub-items, the business activity index was 60.1, down 6.9 percentage points from 67 last month, hitting a six-month low, highlighting that the Delta mutant strain is reducing people's demand for dining out, leisure and travel; The employment sub-item dropped slightly from 53.8 to 53.7; The inventory sub-item fell to 46.9 in August from 49.2 in July, falling to its lowest level in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346bea160af4b48bf00689f24f779c95\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>remark</p><p>Taper's boots basically landed, and Powell took away the \"wine glass\" and didn't sing \"pigeon\". The statement of this interest rate meeting clearly gave information for the first time on reducing the scale of bond purchases, that is, \"if the progress is roughly as expected, the pace of asset purchases may slow down soon.\" Powell also focused more on Taper in his subsequent speeches. At the same time, he did not continue the usual \"dove\" remarks in the past, but paved the way for Taper more. For example, inflation has made substantial progress, and many FOMC members said that the employment issue has made substantial progress. Substantial progress, the wording in the statement means that the conditions for reducing the scale of bond purchases may be met as early as the next meeting, etc. Judging from the statement of the interest rate meeting that first mentioned the reduction of bond purchases and Powell's subsequent statements, Taper's boots have basically landed.</p><p>Dot plots and economic forecasts continue to show that rate hike expectations are ahead of schedule, and the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than the market expects. At this meeting, all policy makers predicted that the Federal Funds rate would remain close to zero by the end of 2021. Nine members were expected to be in rate hike in 2022, 17 members were expected to be in rate hike in 2023, and possibly in rate hike in 2024. 6-7 times. At the June interest rate meeting, all policymakers expected Federal Funds rate to remain close to zero by the end of 2021, with 7 members expected to be in rate hike in 2022 and 13 members expected to be in rate hike in 2023. In the economic forecast, the Federal Reserve significantly lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year, but raised its GDP growth forecast for 2022 and 2023. At the same time, it significantly raised its inflation forecast for this year and slightly raised its inflation forecast for 2022, indicating that the Federal Reserve is optimistic about long-term economic growth and more worried about inflation. At the same time, Powell did not blindly emphasize at the press conference that the dot plot is just a personal prediction as in June, indicating that the rate hike shown in this dot plot indicates that the policy may change in advance. Under the pressure of high inflation and financial stability, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy earlier than market expectations.</p><p>Taper may be announced in November and implemented in December. The pace may be to reduce bond purchases by US $15 billion per month and end in the middle of next year. The inflection point of the US Treasury yields may depend on the time when the debt ceiling is resolved. According to the statement of this interest rate meeting and Powell's speech, if employment does not deteriorate more than expected, then the Federal Reserve will most likely announce the Taper at the next November FOMC interest rate meeting and implement the Taper from December. Regarding the rhythm of Taper, it is necessary to ensure that Taper ends in the middle of next year. If according to the experience of the previous round, the rhythm of bond purchases is reduced by US $15 billion at each interest rate meeting, then Taper will end in the third quarter of next year. Therefore, we believe that this round of Taper cannot be ruled out. It will be carried out at a monthly reduction of US $15 billion until the middle of next year. With the continuity of Fed communication, the current Taper is no longer the core factor determining the inflection point of US Treasury yields. The inflection point of US Treasury yields may depend on the settlement time of the U.S. debt ceiling, which may appear near the end of October.</p><p>MARKET REVIEW</p><p>Interest rate bonds</p><p>Capital market review</p><p>On September 22, 2021, the interbank pledged repo weighted interest rates were mixed, with overnight, 7-day, 14-day, 21-day and 1-month changes of 4.70 bps,-1.54 bps, 9.10 bps, 0.67 bp and-1.68 bps to 2.15%, 2.23%, 2.46%, 2.60% and 2.60%, respectively. Treasury Bond yields to maturity generally declined, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year changes of-5.87 bps,-2.12 bps,-0.87 bp, and-0.78 bp to 2.33%, 2.56%, 2.71%, and 2.86% respectively. On September 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.40% to 3628.49, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.57% to 14277.08, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.91% to 3164.33.</p><p>The central bank announced that in order to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the quarter, on September 22, 60 billion yuan of 7-day and 60 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations were carried out through interest rate bidding. Today, the central bank launched 60 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations and 60 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations in the open market. 30 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, achieving a net liquidity investment of 90 billion yuan. In addition, there are still 60 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase due from Thursday to Friday, 70 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits due on Friday, and 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due on Sunday.</p><p>Liquidity dynamic monitoring</p><p>We track the market liquidity situation and observe the \"investment and receipt\" of liquidity since the beginning of 2017. In terms of increment, we calculate the total investment amount based on the scale of central bank open market operations such as reverse repurchase, SLF and MLF, and treasury cash fixed deposits; In terms of reduction, based on the cumulative increase of 1,601.066 billion yuan in M0 compared with December 2016 in December 2020, the cumulative decrease of 811.716 billion yuan in foreign exchange holdings, and the cumulative increase of 986.866 billion yuan in fiscal deposits, we roughly estimate that through residents' cash withdrawals, the decrease of foreign holdings and the liquidity lost by tax revenue, and considering the maturity of open market operations, calculate the total daily liquidity reduction. At the same time, we monitor the maturity of open market operations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a306434fbba9a99088fd2e91d87d106\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"1136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bonds</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Review</p><p>In the convertible bond market on September 22, the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 415.11 points, up 0.43% daily, the Convertible Bond Index closed at 1735.61 points, up 0.42% daily, and the Convertible Bond Plan Index closed at 1449.60 points, down 0.04% daily; The average convertible bond price is 144.52 yuan, and the average parity is 113.55 yuan. Of the 376 listed and traded convertible bonds, except for the suspension of Yingke Convertible Bonds, Jiuzhou Convertible Bonds and Qingshui Convertible Bonds, 191 rose, 1 traded sideways, and 181 fell. Among them, Mengdian Convertible Bonds (16.03%), Punai Convertible Bonds (14.42%) and Qixiang Convertible 2 (12.23%) led the gains, Shida Convertible Bonds (-12.29%), Hongxin Convertible Bonds (-8.20%) and Jiuwu Convertible Bonds (-5.86%) led the decline. Of the 370 convertible bond underlying shares, 171 rose, 8 traded sideways, and 191 fell. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688388\">Jiayuan Technology</a>（15.84%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300682\">Longshine Technology</a>(13.11%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600863\">Inner Mongolia Huadian</a>(10.08%) led the gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002527\">Newstar</a>（-9.97%）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300657\">Hongxin Electronics</a>(-9.31%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300631\">Jiuwu High-Tech</a>(-8.04%) led the losses.</p><p>Convertible Bond Market Week Views</p><p>Last week, the market first rose and then fell, and the convertible bond index rose and then fell back quickly. From a structural point of view, the market style has shown a relatively obvious balance. The pharmaceutical and other sectors that were hit hard in the early stage have begun to strengthen, while the strong cyclical sectors have adjusted significantly.</p><p>Recently, there has been a lot of discussion on the valuation of convertible bonds in the market. Last week, the valuation of stocks was also compressed. However, we believe that valuation is not the core influencing factor of the current market. Further considering the large structural differentiation of valuation, the reference significance of the overall valuation level of the market has also declined. Strategically, we continue to move in a balanced direction, and now it is the stage of allocation rebalancing. We believe that the increase in market volatility is the stage of stepping up the layout in some directions. The core of balancing the direction is to select individual bonds. The alpha of the market is more obvious, and opportunities will not be limited. While convertible bonds maintain high flexibility, you can increase some positions to pay attention to underlying shares's low valuation targets with thick price safety cushions.</p><p>The cyclical sector is a variety whose fluctuations have increased rapidly recently. As the global economy begins to face growth pressure, it will further suppress the potential demand for commodities. At the same time, high upstream prices will also have a negative impact on downstream demand. Behind the upstream and downstream game, more attention is paid to directions where supply is limited or demand still has potential room to boost, such as crude oil, UHV, public utilities and environmental protection sectors.</p><p>Recently, the pan-consumer sector has encountered continuous impacts, among which emotions are suspected of overreacting to a certain extent. After the impact, it is still worth paying attention to this direction. With the decline of economic growth momentum, the consumer sector, which has undergone a lot of adjustments recently, may once again show stable characteristics. Although the epidemic has constituted a certain disturbance, there are many directions of sustained prosperity in consumption, and some targets have also hit new highs. Investors are advised to pay more attention to this direction. At the same time, we can increase our attention to the financial sector.</p><p>The growth and manufacturing direction that has been recommended in the past few months is also the structural hot spot of the current market, and there are still targets that continue to hit new highs in the near future. But looking forward to this direction, we should pay more attention to alpha. We suggest that the leading coupon configuration should be preferred. The main logical direction is recommended to be investigated from the two perspectives of domestic substitution and technological upgrading, focusing on semiconductors, auto parts, wind power, photovoltaics, pharmaceutical industry, communications and other sectors. But the current focus is on balancing the selection of positions and actively responding to fluctuations in market sentiment.</p><p>High flexibility portfolio suggestions focus on Dongcaizhuan 3, Xinchun Convertible Bonds, Slai Convertible Bonds, Jiayuan (Jinbo) Convertible Bonds, Jincheng (Binhua) Convertible Bonds, Aojia Convertible Bonds, Enjie Convertible Bonds, Jinko Convertible Bonds, Biyin Convertible Bonds and Jingda Convertible Bonds.</p><p>It is recommended to pay attention to Hangyin Convertible Bonds, Mona (Heilan) Convertible Bonds, Wangneng Convertible Bonds, Tianhao Convertible Bonds, Taihua Convertible Bonds, Tianneng (Funeng) Convertible Bonds, Wencan Convertible Bonds, Runjian Convertible Bonds and Langxin Convertible Bonds.</p><p>Risk Factors</p><p>Market liquidity fluctuated greatly, macroeconomic growth was not as good as expected, risk-free interest rates fluctuated greatly, and underlying shares's stock price fluctuated more than expected.</p><p>Stock Market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294bd133a63473e9163b00961accb856\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Convertible bond market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6a015caa67dc2b92dd786923292bd\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CITIC Securities Mingming Research Team</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1804bd2a58f1fc4b3242b88f2f02977b\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-23/doc-iktzscyx5801703.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36976bdc18f7089989d74786b5b12ee","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","600030":"中信证券","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","06030":"中信证券","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-23/doc-iktzscyx5801703.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2169665501","content_text":"核心观点\n9月议息会议，美联储维持基准利率和购债规模不变，声明中提及“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”。经济预测和点阵图显示加息预期进一步提前。鲍威尔讲话较为鹰派，表示缩减购债规模的条件最早可能在下次会议上得到满足。我们认为，按照本次会议声明和鲍威尔讲话，Taper或将在11月宣布，12月开始实施，节奏可能是每月缩减150亿美元购债，至明年年中结束，美债利率拐点或取决于债务上限解决时间。\n议息会议结果：利率工具方面，在本次议息会议上，美联储继续将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变；资产购买方面，美联储称“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”，并重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS。经济预期方面，美联储增加了“近几个月，受大流行影响最严重的行业情况有所改善但病例增加延缓了复苏进展”，通胀的描述由“上升（has risen）”改为“位于高位（is elevated）”，但仍是暂时的。\n政策利率预测与经济前景预测：政策利率预测的点阵图显示，所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有9位委员预计将在2022年加息，17位委员预计将在2023年加息。经济前景预测方面，美联储大幅下调今年经济增长预测，上调通胀预测。预期2021年GDP增长5.9%，今年6月预期7.0%；预期2021年失业率为4.8%，今年6月预期4.5%；预期2021年PCE通胀率为4.2%，今年6月预期3.4%；预期2021年核心PCE通胀率为3.7%，今年6月预期3.0%。\n鲍威尔讲话要点：在通货膨胀方面已经取得了实质性进展；就自己和许多FOMC成员而言，就业问题取得了实质性进展；声明中的措辞意味着，缩减购债规模的条件最早可能在下次会议上得到满足。如果经济走势继续与预期一致，可以很容易地在下次会议上采取紧缩措施，缩减购债规模可能在明年年中左右结束。缩债将是渐进的，预计不需要加快缩债步伐；在评估最大就业时，确实要看不同的人口统计指标，失业率持续的种族差距相当令人不安。\n近期美国基本面情况：疫情方面，新型冠状病毒新增确诊人数回落，疫情边际趋缓和。就业方面，新增非农就业人数继续增长，但8月增幅远低于预期，创2021年1月以来新低，居民对于疫情的担忧加剧是新增非农就业人数远低于市场预期的主要原因。通胀方面，8月PPI再创新高，CPI涨幅驱缓但仍在高位，能源项是CPI主要增长项，市场通胀预期有所缓和。消费方面，8月零售数据大超市场预期，消费者信心呈边际向好趋势。投资方面，耐用品新增订单增速持续改善，但边际有所驱缓。经济景气方面，8月ISM制造业和非制造业PMI显示经济复苏放缓，但仍然处于相对高位的扩张区间。\nTaper靴子基本落地，鲍威尔拿走“酒杯”不唱“鸽”。本次议息会议声明首次明确对缩减购债规模给出信息。鲍威尔在此后的讲话中也对Taper着墨较多，同时没有继续以往一贯的“鸽”派言论，而是更多对Taper进行铺垫。从议息会议声明首次提及缩减购债以及鲍威尔之后的表述来看，Taper的靴子已经基本落地。\n点阵图和经济预测继续显示加息预期提前，美联储可能比市场预期更早收紧货币政策。本次会议上，点阵图和经济预测表明美联储对于长期经济增长乐观，对于通胀较为担忧。同时，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上也并未像6月时一味强调点阵图只是个人预测，表明此次点阵图显示的加息提前预示着政策或将发生转变，在高通胀和金融稳定的压力下，美联储可能比市场预期更早收紧货币政策。\nTaper或将在11月宣布，12月开始实施，节奏可能是每月缩减150亿美元购债，至明年年中结束，美债利率拐点或取决于债务上限解决时间。如果就业不出现超预期恶化，那么美联储大概率会在接下来的11月FOMC议息会议上宣布Taper，并从12月开始实施Taper。关于Taper的节奏，要保证明年年中结束Taper，如果按照上一轮经验，每次议息会议缩减150亿美元购债的节奏，那么Taper将到明年三季度结束，因此我们认为不排除本轮Taper按照每月缩减150亿美元的节奏进行，至明年年中结束。随着美联储沟通持续性的保持，当前Taper已经不是决定美债利率拐点的核心因素，美债利率拐点或取决于美国债务上限的解决时间，可能在10月底附近出现。\n正文\n议息会议结果\n利率工具方面，在本次议息会议上，美联储继续将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变，重申将维持利率在当前水平直至实现其最大就业和物价稳定的双重目标。理事会一致投票决定将准备金余额支付的利率维持在0.15%，自2021年9月23日起生效。基础信贷利率维持在0.25%不变，继续按兵不动，符合市场预期。\n资产购买方面，美联储称“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”。美联储重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS，并根据促进平稳的市场运作、提供宽松金融条件的需要来增持国债和MBS、购买CMBS，从而支持信贷流向家庭和企业；进行报价利率为0.05%的隔夜逆回购协议操作，每天每方交易限额为1600亿美元。\n经济预期方面，美联储增加了“近几个月，受大流行影响最严重的行业情况有所改善但病例增加延缓了复苏进展”；通胀的描述由“上升（has risen）”改为“位于高位（is elevated）”。随着疫苗接种取得进展和强有力的政策支持，经济活动和就业指标继续增强。最近几个月，受疫情影响最严重的行业有所改善，但COVID-19病例的增加减缓了其复苏。通胀上升，主要反映了暂时性因素。经济的演进路径继续取决于病毒的发展进程。疫苗接种方面的进展可能会继续减少公共卫生危机对经济的影响，但经济前景面临的风险仍然存在。\n美联储政策利率预测与经济预测\n本次议息会议美联储更新了政策利率预测与经济预测。政策利率预测的点阵图显示，所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有9位委员预计将在2022年加息，17位委员预计将在2023年加息，2024年可能加息6-7次。\n\n美国经济前景预测，经济增长方面，美联储预期2021年GDP增长5.9%，今年6月预期7.0%；预期2022年增长3.8%，今年6月预期3.3%；预期2023年增长2.5%，今年6月预期2.4%；预期2024年增长2.0%；更长周期预计增长1.8%，今年6月预期增长1.8%。\n失业率方面，美联储预期2021年为4.8%，今年6月预期4.5%；预期2022年为3.8%，今年6月预期3.8%；预期2023年为3.5%，今年6月预期3.5%；预期2024年增长3.5%；更长周期预期为4.0%，今年6月预期4.0%。\n通胀方面，美联储预期2021年PCE通胀率为4.2%，今年6月预期3.4%；预期2022年为2.2%，今年6月预期2.1%；预期2023年为2.2%，今年6月预期2.2%；预期2024年增长2.1%；更长周期预期为2.0%，今年6月预期2.0%。预期2021年核心PCE通胀率为3.7%，今年6月预期3.0%；预期2022年为2.3%，今年6月预期2.1%；预期2023年为2.2%，今年6月预期2.1%；预期2024年增长2.1%。\n\n鲍威尔的讲话\n美联储主席鲍威尔在当日新闻发布会上表示：如果经济走势继续与预期一致，可以很容易地在下次会议上采取紧缩措施。委员会今天讨论了实现目标的进展，就自己和许多FOMC成员而言，就业问题取得了实质性进展。如果持续出现进展，缩减购债规模可能很快就会得到保证，缩减购债规模可能在明年年中左右结束。\nTaper方面，鲍威尔表示：在通货膨胀方面已经取得了实质性进展；就自己和许多FOMC成员而言，就业问题取得了实质性进展；声明中的措辞意味着，缩减购债规模最早可能在下次会议上得到满足；大部分FOMC成员支持缩债的时间和速度；资产购买仍有其用途，但现在是缩减资产购买的时候了。在缩减购债计划结束之前，不会出现加息。如果时机合适，美联储当然可以加快或放慢缩减购债的速度。缩债将是渐进的，预计不需要加快缩债步伐；在评估最大就业时，确实要看不同的人口统计指标。\n经济预期方面，鲍威尔表示：经济前景仍然存在风险；Delta毒株减缓了经济复苏；疫苗接种的持续进展将支持经济恢复到更正常的状态；在今年剩下的时间里，增长可能会继续保持强劲的步伐；受疫情影响的行业复苏缓慢；供应限制抑制经济活动。\n就业方面，鲍威尔表示：劳动力需求非常强劲，失业率高估了就业缺口，护理需求和对病毒的持续担忧影响就业增长，但应该会随着时间的推移而消失；劳动力市场仍然有很多闲置的地方；许多联邦公开市场委员会成员认为在就业方面已经取得了实质性的进一步进展，观点是“几乎达到”。Delta毒株影响了人们重返工作岗位，人们可能需要更多的时间才能回到工作岗位；失业率持续的种族差距相当令人不安，消除种族差异是财政政策比美联储的工具更适合的事情。\n通胀方面，鲍威尔表示：通货膨胀正在上升，并且在缓和之前可能会持续数月；供应瓶颈，雇佣困难可能会再次比预期更大，更持久。长期通胀预期指标仍然与长期通胀目标一致，如果持续的高通胀是一个担忧，我们肯定会做出回应。今年和今后几年的通胀预测有所上升，这反映出瓶颈和短缺尚未以“有意义的方式”减轻。\n债务上限方面，鲍威尔表示：及时提高债务上限非常重要；如果不这样做，可能会对经济造成严重损害；美国不应该违约，没有人应该假设美联储能在违约的情况下完全保护市场或经济。\n美国近期基本面\n近日，美国新型冠状病毒新增确诊人数回落，美国疫情情况边际趋缓和。截至2021年9月21日，美国新型冠状病毒累计确诊人数达到4324万人，累计死亡人数70万人，美国新型冠状病毒当日确诊人数为13万人，比上一日减少了8万人。美国疫情扩散的放缓或与疫苗普及率逐渐提高有关，美国新型冠状病毒新增确诊病例从9月13日以来呈下降趋势。\n\n就业方面，从非农就业人数变化来看，美国8月季调后非农就业人口增加23.5万人，预期增加72万人，新增非农就业人数创2021年1月以来新低，同时失业率降至5.2%，为2020年3月以来新低。8月美国新增非农就业人数远低于前值和市场预期，从新增非农就业人数走势来看，尽管随着美国疫苗接种速度的加快，以及在部分州失业救济金提前停发的带动下，6月和7月新增非农就业人数大幅增长，连续高于市场预期。但是此前的非农就业数据并未反映新一轮Delta变异毒株引发的疫情反弹给就业市场带来的扰动，8月非农就业数据在疫情扰动下，远低于市场预期。\nDelta变异毒株造成疫情反弹，居民对于疫情的担忧加剧是新增非农就业人数远低于市场预期的主要原因。具体来看，此前新增非农就业人数的主要来源休闲酒店业意外零增长导致非农就业数据弱于预期，相较7月环比减少约41.5万人。专业和商业服务业维持增加，录得7.4万人，环比减少约0.5万人，但仍然成为了8月新增非农就业人数最多的行业，仓储运输业增加5.32万人。政府部门就业人数环比减少约26.3万人，由前值增加25.5万人变为今值的减少0.8万人；教育和保健服务新增就业人数环比减少约5.3万人。从行业数据上来看，美国服务业就业人数增长放缓，是导致就业人数大幅低于整体增幅的主要因素之一。新一轮疫情对消费及就业活动的冲击都高于预期，在Delta毒株引发的新一轮感染高峰仍未过去之际，民众自发减少外出令经济活动继续受到冲击，个人教育和重返职场的计划也被打乱。\n\n通胀方面，8月PPI再创新高，CPI涨幅驱缓，能源项是CPI主要增长项。8月未季调CPI同比增长5.3%，预期增长5.3%；未季调核心CPI同比增长4.0%，预期增长4.2%。季调后CPI环比增长0.3%，预期增长0.4%；季调后核心CPI环比增长0.1%，预期增长0.3%。PPI同比增长8.3%，再创历史新高。8月CPI同比增速最高的仍是能源项。前期推动CPI持续上涨的交通运输服务以及二手车价格涨势均有所收敛。能源价格同比上涨25%，其中，汽油价格环比增长2.8%，同比增长42.7%，食品价格同比上行3.7%。虽然8月CPI同比仍然维持高位，但涨幅驱缓，市场通胀预期有所缓和。\n\n消费方面，零售数据大超市场预期，消费者信心呈边际向好趋势。美国8月零售数据环比增长0.7%，远超市场预期的-0.7%，同比增长15.37%。美国公布的9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数小幅升至71，8月终值为70.3，略超预期。由于德尔塔毒株的传播而导致的新冠病例增加正在减缓，消费者信心指数或持续反弹。但与春季和疫情前水平相比，在疫情影响下，当前市场情绪仍然低迷。\n\n投资方面，近来美国耐用品新增订单月同比起伏不定，7月同比录得10.99%，6月同比录得24.17%，继续2020年11月以来的正值，反映美国投资状况改善，但边际增速有所驱缓。美国7月季调后耐用品除运输外新增订单同比增加15.56%，6月同比为18.50%。美国耐用品新增订单和除运输外耐用品新增订单的持续增长或反映了美国投资状况的持续改善，但边际增速有所驱缓。\n\n经济景气方面，8月ISM制造业和非制造业PMI显示复苏放缓，但仍然处于相对高位。美国8月ISM制造业PMI为59.9，与7月59.5相比有略微抬升，但比5月份的61.2仍有一定差距，受到疫情反弹影响，复苏进度受阻。分项方面，物价有大幅变动，从7月的85.7下降到79.4，供应商交付由7月的72.5小幅下跌到69.5。美国8月ISM非制造业PMI为61.7，较7月的64.1显著回落。分项方面， 商业活动指数60.1，较上月的67下降6.9个百分点，创下六个月新低，凸显Delta变异毒株正在降低人们对外出就餐、休闲和旅行等的需求；就业分项由53.8小幅回落至53.7；库存分项从7月的49.2下降至8月的46.9，跌至近一年来的最低水平。\n\n点评\nTaper靴子基本落地，鲍威尔拿走“酒杯”不唱“鸽”。本次议息会议声明首次明确对缩减购债规模给出信息，即“如果进展大致如预期，则资产购买步伐可能很快就会放缓”。鲍威尔在此后的讲话中也对Taper着墨较多，同时没有继续以往一贯的“鸽”派言论，而是更多对Taper进行铺垫，例如通胀已经取得实质性进展，许多FOMC成员表示，就业问题取得了实质性进展，声明中的措辞意味着，缩减购债规模的条件最早可能在下次会议上得到满足等。从议息会议声明首次提及缩减购债以及鲍威尔之后的表述来看，Taper的靴子已经基本落地。\n点阵图和经济预测继续显示加息预期提前，美联储可能比市场预期更早收紧货币政策。本次会议上，所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有9位委员预计将在2022年加息，17位委员预计将在2023年加息，2024年可能加息6-7次。在6月议息会议时，所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有7位委员预计将在2022年加息，13位委员预计将在2023年加息。在经济预测中，美联储大幅下调了今年的GDP增速预测，但上调了2022年和2023年的GDP增速预测，同时大幅上调今年的通胀预测，小幅上调2022年的通胀预测，表明美联储对于长期经济增长乐观，对于通胀较为担忧。同时，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上也并未像6月时一味强调点阵图只是个人预测，表明此次点阵图显示的加息提前预示着政策或将发生转变，在高通胀和金融稳定的压力下，美联储可能比市场预期更早收紧货币政策。\nTaper或将在11月宣布，12月开始实施，节奏可能是每月缩减150亿美元购债，至明年年中结束，美债利率拐点或取决于债务上限解决时间。按照本次议息会议声明和鲍威尔的讲话来看，如果就业不出现超预期恶化，那么美联储大概率会在接下来的11月FOMC议息会议上宣布Taper，并从12月开始实施Taper。关于Taper的节奏，要保证明年年中结束Taper，如果按照上一轮经验，每次议息会议缩减150亿美元购债的节奏，那么Taper将到明年三季度结束，因此我们认为不排除本轮Taper按照每月缩减150亿美元的节奏进行，至明年年中结束。随着美联储沟通持续性的保持，当前Taper已经不是决定美债利率拐点的核心因素，美债利率拐点或取决于美国债务上限的解决时间，可能在10月底附近出现。\n市场回顾\n利率债\n资金面市场回顾\n2021年9月22日，银存间质押式回购加权利率涨跌互现，隔夜、7天、14天、21天和1个月分别变动了4.70bps、-1.54bps、9.10bps、0.67bp和-1.68bps至2.15%、2.23%、2.46%、2.60%和2.60%。国债到期收益率大体下行，1年、3年、5年、10年分别变动-5.87bps、-2.12bps、-0.87bp、-0.78bp至2.33%、2.56%、2.71%、2.86%。9月22日上证综指上涨0.40%至3628.49，深证成指下跌0.57%至14277.08，创业板指下跌0.91%至3164.33。\n央行公告称，为维护季末流动性平稳，9月22日以利率招标方式开展了600亿元7天期和600亿元14天期逆回购操作。今日央行公开市场开展600亿元7天逆回购操作和600亿元14天期逆回购操作，有300亿元逆回购到期，实现流动性净投放900亿元。此外，本周四至周五还有600亿元7天逆回购到期，周五有700亿元国库现金定存到期，周日有500亿元逆回购到期。\n流动性动态监测\n我们对市场流动性情况进行跟踪，观测2017年开年来至今流动性的“投与收”。增量方面，我们根据逆回购、SLF、MLF等央行公开市场操作、国库现金定存等规模计算总投放量；减量方面，我们根据2020年12月对比2016年12月M0累计增加16010.66亿元，外汇占款累计下降8117.16亿元、财政存款累计增加9868.66亿元，粗略估计通过居民取现、外占下降和税收流失的流动性，并考虑公开市场操作到期情况，计算每日流动性减少总量。同时，我们对公开市场操作到期情况进行监控。\n\n可转债\n可转债市场回顾\n9月22日转债市场，中证转债指数收于415.11点，日上涨0.43%，可转债指数收于1735.61点，日上涨0.42%，可转债预案指数收于1449.60点，日下跌0.04%；平均转债价格144.52，平均平价为113.55元。376支上市交易可转债，除英科转债、九洲转债和清水转债停牌，191支上涨，1支横盘，181支下跌。其中蒙电转债（16.03%）、濮耐转债（14.42%）和齐翔转2（12.23%）领涨，时达转债（-12.29%）、弘信转债（-8.20%）和久吾转债（-5.86%）领跌。370支可转债正股，171支上涨，8支横盘，191支下跌。其中嘉元科技（15.84%）、朗新科技（13.11%）和内蒙华电（10.08%）领涨，新时达（-9.97%）、弘信电子（-9.31%）和久吾高科（-8.04%）领跌。\n可转债市场周观点\n上周市场先扬后抑，转债指数冲高后快速回落。结构上看市场风格出现了较为明显的均衡，前期饱受冲击的医药等板块开始走强，而强势周期板块则调整明显。\n最近市场对转债估值问题讨论颇多，上周股性估值也有所压缩，但我们认为估值并不是当前市场的核心左右因素，进一步考虑到估值的结构分化较大，市场的总体估值水平的参考意义也有所下降。策略上我们继续着均衡的方向，当前正是配置再平衡的阶段。我们认为市场波动加大正是部分方向加紧布局的阶段，在方向上做好平衡的核心是精选个券，市场的alpha更为明显，机会并不会受到局限，转债保持高弹性的同时可以增加部分仓位关注价格安全垫较厚的正股低估值标的。\n周期板块是近期波动迅速增大的品种，随着全球经济开始面临增长压力也会进一步抑制商品的潜在需求，同时上游价格的高企也对下游的需求产生负面影响。上下游博弈的背后更加关注供给受限或是需求仍有潜在提振空间的方向，例如原油、特高压、公用事业环保等板块。\n近期泛消费板块遭遇持续的冲击，其中情绪有一定过度反应的嫌疑，冲击过后仍然值得重视这一方向。随着经济增长动能的回落，近期调整颇多的消费板块可能会再次展现出稳健的特性，虽然疫情构成了一定的扰动，但消费中存在不少景气度持续的方向，部分标的也创出了新高，建议投资者对这一方向增加关注。同时我们可以增加对金融板块的关注。\n对于过去数月重点推荐的成长制造方向，也是当前市场结构性热点所在，近期仍旧有持续创出新高的标的。但往后看这一方向应更加看重alpha，我们建议优选龙头个券配置。主要逻辑方向建议从国产替代与技术升级两大角度去考察，重点关注半导体、汽车零部件、风电、光伏、医药工业、通信等板块。但当前的重点是均衡持仓的选择，积极应对市场情绪的波动。\n高弹性组合建议重点关注东财转3、新春转债、斯莱转债、嘉元（金博）转债、金诚（滨化）转债、奥佳转债、恩捷转债、晶科转债、比音转债、精达转债。\n稳健弹性组合建议关注杭银转债、蒙娜（海澜）转债、旺能转债、天壕转债、台华转债、天能（福能）转债、文灿转债、润建转债、朗新转债。\n风险因素\n市场流动性大幅波动，宏观经济增速不如预期，无风险利率大幅波动，正股股价超预期波动。\n股票市场\n\n转债市场\n\n中信证券明明研究团队","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"600030":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"06030":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817471897,"gmtCreate":1630984226919,"gmtModify":1676530434607,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817471897","repostId":"2165338208","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838191116,"gmtCreate":1629379823735,"gmtModify":1676530021256,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why not?","listText":"Why not?","text":"Why not?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838191116","repostId":"1122010518","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122010518","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629378862,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122010518?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 21:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will U.S. stocks be intimidated by the Fed? Are you overreacting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122010518","media":"英为财情","summary":"美联储会议纪要特别强调了缩债决定是与加息时机无关的。","content":"<p><b>Author: Pan Yiheng</b></p><p>In the early hours of Thursday morning, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its July meeting. At this meeting, the Federal Reserve expressed confidence in the recovery of the U.S. economy, even though the Delta variant of the virus is causing an increase in cases. Officials also continue to prepare for the eventual end of the $120 billion a month purchase program of public debt and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).</p><p>First of all, it is certain that the Fed explicitly discussed tapering bond purchases for the first time at its July monetary policy meeting. At the same time, the minutes showed that most Fed policymakers believe that if the economic recovery is in line with expectations, they will slow down their monthly purchases of $120 billion later this year. and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).</p><p>However, it needs to be emphasized that Fed policymakers are still divided on when to start tapering bond purchases. Some officials believe that bond purchases should be reduced and ended soon, while others believe that the Fed should wait patiently for the job market to recover more fully. It should be pointed out that the minutes of the Fed meeting specifically emphasized that tapering's decision has nothing to do with the timing of the rate hike.</p><p><b>US stocks overreacting?</b></p><p>Therefore, in our opinion, this is a relatively dovish meeting minutes. Logically speaking, it should be beneficial to U.S. stocks to a certain extent, but the fact is just the opposite. Major U.S. stock indexes fell across the board.</p><p>Data showed that the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 382.59 points, or 1.08%, to 34,960.69 points; The U.S. S&P 500 fell 47.81 points, or 1.07%, to 4,400.27; The Nasdaq Composite fell 130.27 points, or 0.89%, to 14,525.91.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b7d11ce0f70bd47ce30dfdffe3d9d49\" tg-width=\"1844\" tg-height=\"828\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite 5-minute chart, Source: Investing.com</span></p><p>It seems that U.S. stocks have overreacted. Compared with the request of many hawkish Fed officials to announce a reduction in asset purchases in September, the minutes of this meeting are already relatively dovish. We in the previous article<b>\"Terror data\" hides murderous intent, and the sword of Damocles hangs high in the US stock market</b>It is also mentioned that there is still a long way to go for the Fed to reduce its bond purchases, and the rate hike may not be until the end of 2022 or even 2023. There is still a certain buffer period for U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Foreign exchange market and bond market interpretation is opposite</b></p><p>Compared with the stock market, the reaction of the foreign exchange market and the Treasury Bond market is relatively normal. The US Dollar Index futures once plunged more than 30 basis points after the minutes were released, setting a new intraday low of 92.94. However, it later recovered all the losses and continued to rise, mainly supported by risk aversion. The yield of 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States has been on a downward trend since the news was announced. It can be seen that the interpretation of the minutes of the meeting by these two markets is dovish.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247faa7cfcb47625927de30b18959310\" tg-width=\"1850\" tg-height=\"821\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>5-minute chart of the US Dollar Index futures, Source: Investing.com</span></p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Are U.S. stocks really overreacting? Maybe the market interprets the Federal Reserve differently, or maybe the US stock market is really a bit \"afraid of heights\". The bull market in U.S. stocks has been going on for a long time, and the entire market is making money. Whether you are a retail investor, an investment bank or a hedge fund, everyone is making money.</p><p>The three major stock indexes are constantly hitting new record highs, and the S&P 500 Index is expected to hit a new closing record of 78 this year, which will exceed the 77 set in 1995. Recently, defensive stocks and safe-haven assets have been frequently sought after by the market. Perhaps investors are carefully wary of the bubble bursting that may occur at any time.</p>","source":"ywcq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will U.S. stocks be intimidated by the Fed? Are you overreacting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill U.S. stocks be intimidated by the Fed? Are you overreacting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">英为财情</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 21:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Author: Pan Yiheng</b></p><p>In the early hours of Thursday morning, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its July meeting. At this meeting, the Federal Reserve expressed confidence in the recovery of the U.S. economy, even though the Delta variant of the virus is causing an increase in cases. Officials also continue to prepare for the eventual end of the $120 billion a month purchase program of public debt and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).</p><p>First of all, it is certain that the Fed explicitly discussed tapering bond purchases for the first time at its July monetary policy meeting. At the same time, the minutes showed that most Fed policymakers believe that if the economic recovery is in line with expectations, they will slow down their monthly purchases of $120 billion later this year. and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).</p><p>However, it needs to be emphasized that Fed policymakers are still divided on when to start tapering bond purchases. Some officials believe that bond purchases should be reduced and ended soon, while others believe that the Fed should wait patiently for the job market to recover more fully. It should be pointed out that the minutes of the Fed meeting specifically emphasized that tapering's decision has nothing to do with the timing of the rate hike.</p><p><b>US stocks overreacting?</b></p><p>Therefore, in our opinion, this is a relatively dovish meeting minutes. Logically speaking, it should be beneficial to U.S. stocks to a certain extent, but the fact is just the opposite. Major U.S. stock indexes fell across the board.</p><p>Data showed that the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 382.59 points, or 1.08%, to 34,960.69 points; The U.S. S&P 500 fell 47.81 points, or 1.07%, to 4,400.27; The Nasdaq Composite fell 130.27 points, or 0.89%, to 14,525.91.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b7d11ce0f70bd47ce30dfdffe3d9d49\" tg-width=\"1844\" tg-height=\"828\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite 5-minute chart, Source: Investing.com</span></p><p>It seems that U.S. stocks have overreacted. Compared with the request of many hawkish Fed officials to announce a reduction in asset purchases in September, the minutes of this meeting are already relatively dovish. We in the previous article<b>\"Terror data\" hides murderous intent, and the sword of Damocles hangs high in the US stock market</b>It is also mentioned that there is still a long way to go for the Fed to reduce its bond purchases, and the rate hike may not be until the end of 2022 or even 2023. There is still a certain buffer period for U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Foreign exchange market and bond market interpretation is opposite</b></p><p>Compared with the stock market, the reaction of the foreign exchange market and the Treasury Bond market is relatively normal. The US Dollar Index futures once plunged more than 30 basis points after the minutes were released, setting a new intraday low of 92.94. However, it later recovered all the losses and continued to rise, mainly supported by risk aversion. The yield of 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States has been on a downward trend since the news was announced. It can be seen that the interpretation of the minutes of the meeting by these two markets is dovish.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247faa7cfcb47625927de30b18959310\" tg-width=\"1850\" tg-height=\"821\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>5-minute chart of the US Dollar Index futures, Source: Investing.com</span></p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Are U.S. stocks really overreacting? Maybe the market interprets the Federal Reserve differently, or maybe the US stock market is really a bit \"afraid of heights\". The bull market in U.S. stocks has been going on for a long time, and the entire market is making money. Whether you are a retail investor, an investment bank or a hedge fund, everyone is making money.</p><p>The three major stock indexes are constantly hitting new record highs, and the S&P 500 Index is expected to hit a new closing record of 78 this year, which will exceed the 77 set in 1995. Recently, defensive stocks and safe-haven assets have been frequently sought after by the market. Perhaps investors are carefully wary of the bubble bursting that may occur at any time.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200466777\">英为财情</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8563c55eda230bf12ce63dc5314b95d0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200466777","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122010518","content_text":"作者：潘奕衡\n北京时间周四凌晨，美联储公布7月会议纪要。美联储在这次会议上表示对美国经济复苏仍有信心，尽管Delta变种病毒正导致病例增加。官员们还继续为最终结束每月1,200亿美元的公债和抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)购买计划做准备。\n首先可以肯定的是，美联储在7月货币政策会议上首次明确讨论了缩减购债，同时纪要显示多数联储决策者认为，若经济复苏符合预期，今年晚些时候将放慢每月购买1,200亿美元公债和抵押支持证券(MBS)的步伐。\n但是需要特别强调的是，美联储决策者们对于何时开启缩减购债规模依然存在分歧，有些官员认为应该很快减少并结束购债，有的人认为美联储应该耐心等待就业市场更充分地恢复。需要特别指出的是，美联储会议纪要特别强调了缩债决定是与加息时机无关的。\n美股反应过度？\n所以，在我们看来这是一份较为鸽派的会议纪要，按道理来讲应该对美股是有一定的利好才对，但是事实正好相反，美国主要股指全线下跌。\n数据显示，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌382.59点，或1.08%，报34,960.69点；美国标准普尔500指数下跌47.81点，或1.07%，报4,400.27点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌130.27点，或0.89%，报14,525.91点。\n道琼斯工业指数、标普500、纳斯达克综合指数5分钟图，来源：Investing.com\n看起来似乎是美股有些反应过度了。相比于很多鹰派美联储官员要求的在9月份宣布缩减资产购买，本次会议纪要已经算是比较鸽派的。我们在上一篇文章“恐怖数据”暗藏杀机，美股达摩克利斯之剑高悬中也有提及，目前美联储缩减购债还有一段距离，加息更是可能要到2022年底甚至2023年，对于美股来讲还是有一定的缓冲期的。\n汇市债市解读相反\n相比股市，外汇市场和国债市场的反应就比较正常。美元指数期货在纪要发布后一度跳水逾30个基点，刷新日内低位至92.94，不过稍后就收回了全部跌幅，并继续上扬，主要还是受避险情绪的支撑。而美国十年期国债收益率在消息公布后一直处于下跌走势。由此可见，这两个市场对会议纪要的解读是鸽派的。\n美元指数期货5分钟图，来源：Investing.com\n总结\n美股真的反应过度了吗？也许是市场对美联储的解读不同，也许是美股真的有点“恐高”了。美股的牛市已经持续了很长一段时间，整个市场都在赚钱，不论你是散户还是投行或者对冲基金，所有人都在赚钱。\n三大股指不断的刷新历史新高，标准普尔500指数有望在今年创下78个收盘新高纪录，这将超过 1995 年创下的 77 个。近期防御类股票和避险资产频频受到市场的追捧，或许投资者们都在小心翼翼的提防着随时可能出现的泡沫破灭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"content":"everything is possible","text":"everything is possible","html":"everything is possible"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114638276,"gmtCreate":1623071558895,"gmtModify":1704195417894,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So run now?","listText":"So run now?","text":"So run now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114638276","repostId":"1126396501","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198131189,"gmtCreate":1620945168741,"gmtModify":1704350753736,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bubble ??","listText":"Bubble ??","text":"Bubble ??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198131189","repostId":"1116555518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005653157,"gmtCreate":1642295806510,"gmtModify":1676533698486,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005653157","repostId":"1162173816","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882798604,"gmtCreate":1631718708108,"gmtModify":1676530618200,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Many options","listText":"Many options","text":"Many options","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/882798604","repostId":"1158451845","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158451845","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631716048,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158451845?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-15 22:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day schedule is \"full of smoke\", and funds have been deployed in advance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158451845","media":"资本深潜号","summary":"疫情以来，电影行业几经冲击，股价都躺到了历史成交价的“地板”上。\n但这个中秋、国庆的假期，可能是准备了近一年的影视公司，磨刀霍霍，大展拳脚的时刻。\n从目前确定档期的项目来看，至少有20余部电影将在未来","content":"<p>Since the epidemic, the film industry has experienced several impacts, and the stock price has lyed on the \"floor\" of historical transaction prices.</p><p>But this Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday may be the moment for film and television companies that have been preparing for nearly a year to sharpen their knives and show their muscles.</p><p>Judging from the current scheduled projects, at least 20 films will be released one after another in the next two weeks.</p><p>Among them, there are big-production films such as The Battle at Lake Changjin, My Fathers and Me, and Railway Heroes produced by \"traditional big factories\" Bona, China Film, Huayi, etc., as well as Internet film companies Cat's Eye,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Waiting for popular IP-supported plays such as \"Peak Explosion\" and \"My Youth Has You\".</p><p>Drawing lessons from the experience of previous holidays, watching movies can easily become an activity choice for long holidays because of a large number of people moving in their daily workplaces. The \"prime time\" that the film actively competes for may also bring about price changes of some listed companies behind it, and even affect the stock market value of some funds.</p><p>Attached photo: The stock price trend of a film and television company that silently rose slightly</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6bbf355ec1fec2bbf71984250fcdc7a\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01. 12 films get together for the Mid-Autumn Festival</b></p><p>In the past, there were \"summer files\" before and \"National Day files\" after. In the film industry, \"Mid-Autumn Festival files\" have been in a tepid and embarrassing position.</p><p>But not now. The Mid-Autumn Festival file is often connected with the National Day file, making it the longest Golden Week period for Chinese people.</p><p>Under the right time, place and people, this year's \"Mid-Autumn Festival\" is particularly lively. According to the statistics of third-party platforms, there are about 12 films released in this year's Mid-Autumn Festival. The themes are mostly romantic films, but they also cover disasters, families, pets, animations, documentaries and other types.</p><p>Among them, the most concerned films are \"My Youth with You\" and \"Peak Explosion\".</p><p>\"My Youth Has You\" focuses on the theme of youth and is adapted from Sun Rui's novel \"A Time of Grass\", an explosive IP with its own audience. Therefore, although the film uses a number of new actors, the number of people who want to watch it still ranks first among the Mid-Autumn Festival films. (see picture below)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9e94be7381b22e220f61bb94321b735\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, \"Peak Explosion\" is a \"heavy taste\" disaster film, starring Zhu Yilong, a traffic actor. The number of people who want to watch the film has exceeded 160,000.</p><p>Judging from previous movies with disaster themes, such as The Wandering Earth, Captain of China, Hero of Fire, etc. are all box office stars. If Peak Explosion can grasp this part of the enthusiasm for watching movies, its box office space will be considerable.</p><p><b>02、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300027\">Huayi Brothers</a>Seize the \"Mid-Autumn Festival\" in advance</b></p><p>For investors, in addition to watching the movie, the producer behind it may also be worthy of attention.</p><p>At present, although this year's \"Mid-Autumn Festival\" is relatively lively, there are not many layouts of head companies such as Wanda, Enlight, and Bona.</p><p>There are exceptions, though. As one of the \"traditional big manufacturers\", Huayi Brothers started the \"Fafafa\" mode during the Mid-Autumn Festival this year.</p><p>In addition to their vast starry sky's participation in My Youth with You, they also participated in the release of the animated film Rock Tibetan Mastiff: Blue Light and the documentary Swim Until the Sea Turns Blue directed by Jia Zhangke, which reviews the past of China after the founding of the People's Republic of China through the perspectives of three writers: Jia Pingwa, Yu Hua and Liang Hongcheng.</p><p>Although Huayi has released many films, at present, there may still be a lack of \"explosion\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ef9cd1188f888932bb4c40dc18d078d\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03. Other companies have their own \"heavy punches\"</b></p><p>Unlike Huayi Brothers, who \"cast a wide net\", another China Film, who is also laying out in advance in the \"Mid-Autumn Festival\", prefers to concentrate its firepower on \"betting\". During the schedule, the \"firepower\" is concentrated on \"Peak Explosion\" and \"All About My Mother\".</p><p>In addition, the power of Internet film companies in the \"Mid-Autumn Festival\" cannot be underestimated. They are behind almost every film with explosive potential. For example, behind \"My Youth Has You\", Maoyan, Migu Culture, and iQiyi Pictures participated. Maoyan also bet on \"Peak Explosion\", and Taopiaopiao participated in the release of \"All About My Mother\".<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01060\">Alibaba Pictures</a>He participated in the fantasy romance film \"Guide to Daily Fantasy\" and so on.</p><p><b>04. The main theme of \"National Day File\"</b></p><p>The National Day file immediately after the Mid-Autumn Festival file is even more blockbuster<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">gather</a>。</p><p>Judging from the information of the currently scheduled films, there are no fewer than ten larger productions. Behind these more than ten upcoming films, there are more than 60 producers secretly competing, including China Film,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300251\">Enlight Media</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002739\">Wanda Films</a>, Shanghai Film and other domestic film companies.</p><p>Among them, The Battle at Lake Changjin's three big-production films, My Fathers and Me and Railway Heroes, have made the war on the National Day more and more intense. (See image below)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12850c78f1eb53bce99373cbdcbcd4c7\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of explosion, the most anticipated National Day file is The Battle at Lake Changjin, which not only brings together many \"big directors\" such as Chen Kaige, Tsui Hark, and Lin Chaoxian, but also the joining of \"top-class\" Jackson Yee.</p><p>At present, the cumulative number of people who want to watch this film on Maoyan and Taopiaopiao platforms has exceeded one million, the highest among the three films, and its first-day film schedule is as high as 95.1%, far exceeding other films released on National Day.</p><p>\"My Fathers and Me\" continues the \"My Series and Me\" transformation director team of domestic actors, the joining of the all-star cast, and then the performance of the main melody theme. It is the only film this year that can compete with The Battle at Lake Changjin.</p><p>In contrast, another Railway Hero, jointly produced by Huayi and China Film, will also get a piece of the action, but in terms of director and cast, Railway Hero may be difficult to compete with the first two films.</p><p>Of course, the domestic film market has always been a \"dark horse galloping\". Whether it's the above three films or three other films, it's possible that they suddenly burst into popularity in the market.</p><p><b>05. There is another public offering and private offering \"bargain hunting\"</b></p><p>Since the beginning of 2020, the film industry has been repeatedly affected by other factors. The stock price performance of the above-mentioned companies in the film and television category has not been good this year: among the 28 companies, 16 are still experiencing negative stock price growth this year. In terms of performance, there are also 10 companies at a loss.</p><p>Although the prosperity of the industry is not good, some investment institutions have laid out in advance:</p><p>From the perspective of fund holdings, at present, Enlight Media, Wanda Films,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002292\">Aofei Entertainment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01896\">Maoyan Entertainment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000892\">Huanrui Century</a>Several companies such as Huayi Brothers, etc. have fund holdings.</p><p>Among them, Enlight Media's fund holds the highest number of shares, with a total shareholding of 277 million shares. Liu Gesong of GF Fund also has two funds holding more than 25 million shares of the company.</p><p>In addition, the recent shareholding changes of Maoyan Entertainment, a Hong Kong stock, also show that some institutions have added 12.95 million shares, including Shi Bo and Mao Wei of Southern Asset Management, who have paid attention to it. (See image below)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcf8988b0bfe89f9bf44a8504c8eb37\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, Feng Liu, a well-known private equity firm of Gao Yi Assets, participated heavily in the fixed increase of Wanda Films at the end of last year. After the ban was lifted in the middle of this year, he still held 38 million shares (according to the interim report).</p><p>Research reports from some sell-side research institutions predict that the main theme films of the National Day file will gather together, and the box office is expected to reach 4.1 to 4.9 billion yuan. This is a relatively neutral estimate, and it remains to be seen whether it can be realized in the end.</p>","source":"lsy1570542988954","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day schedule is \"full of smoke\", and funds have been deployed in advance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day schedule is \"full of smoke\", and funds have been deployed in advance\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">资本深潜号</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-15 22:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Since the epidemic, the film industry has experienced several impacts, and the stock price has lyed on the \"floor\" of historical transaction prices.</p><p>But this Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday may be the moment for film and television companies that have been preparing for nearly a year to sharpen their knives and show their muscles.</p><p>Judging from the current scheduled projects, at least 20 films will be released one after another in the next two weeks.</p><p>Among them, there are big-production films such as The Battle at Lake Changjin, My Fathers and Me, and Railway Heroes produced by \"traditional big factories\" Bona, China Film, Huayi, etc., as well as Internet film companies Cat's Eye,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Waiting for popular IP-supported plays such as \"Peak Explosion\" and \"My Youth Has You\".</p><p>Drawing lessons from the experience of previous holidays, watching movies can easily become an activity choice for long holidays because of a large number of people moving in their daily workplaces. The \"prime time\" that the film actively competes for may also bring about price changes of some listed companies behind it, and even affect the stock market value of some funds.</p><p>Attached photo: The stock price trend of a film and television company that silently rose slightly</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6bbf355ec1fec2bbf71984250fcdc7a\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01. 12 films get together for the Mid-Autumn Festival</b></p><p>In the past, there were \"summer files\" before and \"National Day files\" after. In the film industry, \"Mid-Autumn Festival files\" have been in a tepid and embarrassing position.</p><p>But not now. The Mid-Autumn Festival file is often connected with the National Day file, making it the longest Golden Week period for Chinese people.</p><p>Under the right time, place and people, this year's \"Mid-Autumn Festival\" is particularly lively. According to the statistics of third-party platforms, there are about 12 films released in this year's Mid-Autumn Festival. The themes are mostly romantic films, but they also cover disasters, families, pets, animations, documentaries and other types.</p><p>Among them, the most concerned films are \"My Youth with You\" and \"Peak Explosion\".</p><p>\"My Youth Has You\" focuses on the theme of youth and is adapted from Sun Rui's novel \"A Time of Grass\", an explosive IP with its own audience. Therefore, although the film uses a number of new actors, the number of people who want to watch it still ranks first among the Mid-Autumn Festival films. (see picture below)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9e94be7381b22e220f61bb94321b735\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, \"Peak Explosion\" is a \"heavy taste\" disaster film, starring Zhu Yilong, a traffic actor. The number of people who want to watch the film has exceeded 160,000.</p><p>Judging from previous movies with disaster themes, such as The Wandering Earth, Captain of China, Hero of Fire, etc. are all box office stars. If Peak Explosion can grasp this part of the enthusiasm for watching movies, its box office space will be considerable.</p><p><b>02、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300027\">Huayi Brothers</a>Seize the \"Mid-Autumn Festival\" in advance</b></p><p>For investors, in addition to watching the movie, the producer behind it may also be worthy of attention.</p><p>At present, although this year's \"Mid-Autumn Festival\" is relatively lively, there are not many layouts of head companies such as Wanda, Enlight, and Bona.</p><p>There are exceptions, though. As one of the \"traditional big manufacturers\", Huayi Brothers started the \"Fafafa\" mode during the Mid-Autumn Festival this year.</p><p>In addition to their vast starry sky's participation in My Youth with You, they also participated in the release of the animated film Rock Tibetan Mastiff: Blue Light and the documentary Swim Until the Sea Turns Blue directed by Jia Zhangke, which reviews the past of China after the founding of the People's Republic of China through the perspectives of three writers: Jia Pingwa, Yu Hua and Liang Hongcheng.</p><p>Although Huayi has released many films, at present, there may still be a lack of \"explosion\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ef9cd1188f888932bb4c40dc18d078d\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03. Other companies have their own \"heavy punches\"</b></p><p>Unlike Huayi Brothers, who \"cast a wide net\", another China Film, who is also laying out in advance in the \"Mid-Autumn Festival\", prefers to concentrate its firepower on \"betting\". During the schedule, the \"firepower\" is concentrated on \"Peak Explosion\" and \"All About My Mother\".</p><p>In addition, the power of Internet film companies in the \"Mid-Autumn Festival\" cannot be underestimated. They are behind almost every film with explosive potential. For example, behind \"My Youth Has You\", Maoyan, Migu Culture, and iQiyi Pictures participated. Maoyan also bet on \"Peak Explosion\", and Taopiaopiao participated in the release of \"All About My Mother\".<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01060\">Alibaba Pictures</a>He participated in the fantasy romance film \"Guide to Daily Fantasy\" and so on.</p><p><b>04. The main theme of \"National Day File\"</b></p><p>The National Day file immediately after the Mid-Autumn Festival file is even more blockbuster<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">gather</a>。</p><p>Judging from the information of the currently scheduled films, there are no fewer than ten larger productions. Behind these more than ten upcoming films, there are more than 60 producers secretly competing, including China Film,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300251\">Enlight Media</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002739\">Wanda Films</a>, Shanghai Film and other domestic film companies.</p><p>Among them, The Battle at Lake Changjin's three big-production films, My Fathers and Me and Railway Heroes, have made the war on the National Day more and more intense. (See image below)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12850c78f1eb53bce99373cbdcbcd4c7\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of explosion, the most anticipated National Day file is The Battle at Lake Changjin, which not only brings together many \"big directors\" such as Chen Kaige, Tsui Hark, and Lin Chaoxian, but also the joining of \"top-class\" Jackson Yee.</p><p>At present, the cumulative number of people who want to watch this film on Maoyan and Taopiaopiao platforms has exceeded one million, the highest among the three films, and its first-day film schedule is as high as 95.1%, far exceeding other films released on National Day.</p><p>\"My Fathers and Me\" continues the \"My Series and Me\" transformation director team of domestic actors, the joining of the all-star cast, and then the performance of the main melody theme. It is the only film this year that can compete with The Battle at Lake Changjin.</p><p>In contrast, another Railway Hero, jointly produced by Huayi and China Film, will also get a piece of the action, but in terms of director and cast, Railway Hero may be difficult to compete with the first two films.</p><p>Of course, the domestic film market has always been a \"dark horse galloping\". Whether it's the above three films or three other films, it's possible that they suddenly burst into popularity in the market.</p><p><b>05. There is another public offering and private offering \"bargain hunting\"</b></p><p>Since the beginning of 2020, the film industry has been repeatedly affected by other factors. The stock price performance of the above-mentioned companies in the film and television category has not been good this year: among the 28 companies, 16 are still experiencing negative stock price growth this year. In terms of performance, there are also 10 companies at a loss.</p><p>Although the prosperity of the industry is not good, some investment institutions have laid out in advance:</p><p>From the perspective of fund holdings, at present, Enlight Media, Wanda Films,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002292\">Aofei Entertainment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01896\">Maoyan Entertainment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000892\">Huanrui Century</a>Several companies such as Huayi Brothers, etc. have fund holdings.</p><p>Among them, Enlight Media's fund holds the highest number of shares, with a total shareholding of 277 million shares. Liu Gesong of GF Fund also has two funds holding more than 25 million shares of the company.</p><p>In addition, the recent shareholding changes of Maoyan Entertainment, a Hong Kong stock, also show that some institutions have added 12.95 million shares, including Shi Bo and Mao Wei of Southern Asset Management, who have paid attention to it. (See image below)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcf8988b0bfe89f9bf44a8504c8eb37\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, Feng Liu, a well-known private equity firm of Gao Yi Assets, participated heavily in the fixed increase of Wanda Films at the end of last year. After the ban was lifted in the middle of this year, he still held 38 million shares (according to the interim report).</p><p>Research reports from some sell-side research institutions predict that the main theme films of the National Day file will gather together, and the box office is expected to reach 4.1 to 4.9 billion yuan. This is a relatively neutral estimate, and it remains to be seen whether it can be realized in the end.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HGurq042xBGVKS0JfuazAg\">资本深潜号</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HGurq042xBGVKS0JfuazAg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158451845","content_text":"疫情以来，电影行业几经冲击，股价都躺到了历史成交价的“地板”上。\n但这个中秋、国庆的假期，可能是准备了近一年的影视公司，磨刀霍霍，大展拳脚的时刻。\n从目前确定档期的项目来看，至少有20余部电影将在未来两周时间内，接连上映。\n其中，既有由“传统大厂”博纳、中影、华谊等出品的《长津湖》、《我和我的父辈》、《铁道英雄》等大制作影片，也有互联网影企猫眼、爱奇艺等带来的《峰爆》、《我的青春有个你》等爆款IP支撑的剧目。\n而借鉴以往假期的经验，由于人流大量在日常工作地活动，观赏电影很容易成为长假的一个活动选择。而影片积极争夺的“黄金档”，或许也会带来背后一些上市公司的价格变动，甚至也会影响一些基金的持股市值。\n附图：默默小幅上涨的某影视公司股价走势\n\n01、12部影片扎堆中秋档\n以往前有“暑期档”、后有“国庆档”，在电影行业中，“中秋档”一直处于不温不火的尴尬地位。\n但如今不是，中秋档往往和国庆档相连，成为国人最长的黄金周档期。\n天时地利人和下，今年的“中秋档”显得格外热闹，据第三方平台统计，今年中秋档共有约12部影片上映，题材上以爱情片居多，但也覆盖到灾难、家庭、宠物、动画、纪录片等多种类型。\n其中最受关注的是《我的青春有个你》和《峰爆》两部影片。\n《我的青春有个你》主打青春题材，改编自孙睿的小说《草样年华》，一个自带受众群的爆款IP。也因此，尽管影片启用一众新人演员，但其猫眼想看人数依然在中秋档影片中位列首位。（见下图）\n\n而对比起来，《峰爆》就是“重口味”的灾难片，主演有流量演员朱一龙。该影片的猫眼想看人数也已突破了16万人次。\n从以往灾难题材的电影看，诸如《流浪地球》《中国机长》《烈火英雄》等都是票房明星，如果《峰爆》能够把握住这部分观影热情，其票房的空间也将相当可观。\n02、华谊兄弟提前抢占“中秋档”\n对投资者来说，电影上映除了观影，其背后的出品方或许也值得关注。\n目前来看，虽然今年“中秋档”相对热闹，但如万达、光线、博纳等头部公司布局并不多。\n不过也有例外。作为“传统大厂”之一，华谊兄弟在今年中秋档开启了“发发发”模式。\n除了旗下的浩瀚星空参投《我的青春有个你》之外，它们还参与发行了动画电影《摇滚藏獒：蓝色光芒》，以及由贾樟柯执导的纪录片《一直游到海水变蓝》，该片透过贾平凹、余华、梁鸿成三位作家的视角，回顾建国后的中国往事。\n虽然华谊上映的影片很多，但目前来看，“爆款”上可能还有所欠缺。\n\n03、其他公司各有“重拳出击”\n而和“广撒网”的华谊兄弟不同，另一位也在“中秋档”提前布局的中影，则偏向集中火力“押注”，在档期内的“火力”集中在《峰爆》和《关于我妈的一切》两部影片。\n此外，互联网影企在“中秋档”的力量也不可小觑，几乎每个有爆款潜力的影片背后，都有它们的身影。例如，《我的青春有个你》背后有猫眼、咪咕文化、爱奇艺影业参与，猫眼还押注了《峰爆》，淘票票则参与了《关于我妈的一切》的发行，阿里影业则参与了奇幻爱情片《日常幻想指南》等。\n04、“国庆档”主旋律发力\n紧随中秋档之后的国庆档，更加是大片云集。\n从目前定档的影片信息来看，较大的制作就不下十部，这十余部即将上映的电影背后，有60余家出品方暗自较量，包括中影、光线传媒、万达电影、上影等国内影企。\n其中，《长津湖》《我和我的父辈》《铁道英雄》三部大制作影片，更是让国庆档的战火，越发激烈起来。（见下图）\n\n从爆款的角度来看，国庆档最受期待的要数《长津湖》，不光汇聚了陈凯歌、徐克、林超贤等众多“大导”，还有“顶流”易烊千玺的加盟。\n目前，该片在猫眼、淘票票两大平台的累计想看人数已突破一百万，为三部之最，其首日排片也高达95.1%，远超国庆档上映的其他影片。\n《我和我的父辈》则延续了“我和我的系列”国内演员转型导演团队，全明星阵容加盟，再到主旋律题材的表现，是今年唯一一部能和《长津湖》一较高下的影片。\n相比之下，另一部由华谊和中影联合出品的《铁道英雄》也会分一杯羹，不过在导演和演员阵容上，《铁道英雄》可能较难与前两部一较短长。\n当然，国内电影市场从来就是“黑马奔腾”，不论是上述三部电影，还是三部以外的电影，在市场上突然爆红冒出来，都有一定的可能。\n05、又有公募私募“抄底”\n2020年初以来，电影行业三番两次受到其他因素影响。各影视类上述公司今年以来的股价表现都不算好：28家公司中，16家今年股价仍为负增长。业绩方面，也有10家公司处于亏损状态。\n而虽然行业景气度欠佳，但已有投资机构提前布局：\n从基金持股来看，目前光线传媒、万达电影、奥飞娱乐、猫眼娱乐、欢瑞世纪、华谊兄弟等几家公司都有基金持有。\n其中光线传媒的基金持股数最高，总持股量达到2.77亿股，广发基金的刘格菘旗下也有两只基金持有公司股份超过2500万股。\n另外，港股猫眼娱乐，最近的持股变动也显示，有机构新增了1295万股的持股，包括南方基金的史博、茅炜等都对其有所关注。（见下图）\n\n此外，知名私募高毅资产的冯柳在去年末大举参与万达电影的定增，今年年中解禁后，他仍持有3800万股（中报显示）。\n一些卖方研究机构研报预测，国庆档主旋律影片齐聚，预计票房有望达到41~49亿元。这是个相对中性的估计，最终能否实现还有待于观察。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"content":"good to see","text":"good to see","html":"good to see"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886933371,"gmtCreate":1631542590893,"gmtModify":1676530571311,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not effective?","listText":"Not effective?","text":"Not effective?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886933371","repostId":"1103332897","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103332897","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631541565,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103332897?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-13 21:59","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Most U.S. anti-epidemic concept stocks fell, Moderna fell more than 6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103332897","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月13日，美股抗疫概念股多数走低，BioNTech、Moderna跌超6%，诺瓦瓦克斯医药跌超3%，Vir Biotechnology、辉瑞跌超2%","content":"<p>On September 13, most anti-epidemic concept stocks in the US stock market fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax Pharma</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIR\">Vir Biotechnology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>Fell more than 2%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20ba4f326d18977ea1e1f8ed524293a6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7fd12937953b2628f39ce84fbba56d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Most U.S. anti-epidemic concept stocks fell, Moderna fell more than 6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMost U.S. anti-epidemic concept stocks fell, Moderna fell more than 6%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-13 21:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On September 13, most anti-epidemic concept stocks in the US stock market fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax Pharma</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIR\">Vir Biotechnology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>Fell more than 2%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20ba4f326d18977ea1e1f8ed524293a6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7fd12937953b2628f39ce84fbba56d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25bb080e73b6be662c435ea6aeaec9c7","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","PFE":"辉瑞","VIR":"Vir Biotechnology, Inc."},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103332897","content_text":"9月13日，美股抗疫概念股多数走低，BioNTech、Moderna跌超6%，诺瓦瓦克斯医药跌超3%，Vir Biotechnology、辉瑞跌超2%","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BNTX":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"VIR":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"NVAX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883311499,"gmtCreate":1631201353211,"gmtModify":1676530496140,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Then sell ?","listText":"Then sell ?","text":"Then sell ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883311499","repostId":"1159165577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159165577","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631190879,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159165577?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 20:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks are bearish by Wall Street investment banks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159165577","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"在最近几周当中，各种利空消息终于开始渗透到投资者的头脑当中，比如美国经济增长减速，通货膨胀大举抬升，德尔塔变种病毒带来的更大威胁等，让华尔街的情绪日益趋向悲观。\n2021年开年至今，美股市场可说是延续","content":"<p><i>In recent weeks, all kinds of bad news have finally begun to penetrate the minds of investors, such as the slowdown of U.S. economic growth, the sharp rise in inflation, and the greater threat posed by the Delta variant virus, which has made Wall Street's sentiment increasingly becoming pessimistic.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa01bcdbd6932a5b9f50468e2512433\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Since the beginning of 2021, the U.S. stock market can be said to have continued its strong rise since 2020. The current water level has more than doubled compared with the bottom during the epidemic last year. At the same time, the profits of the S&P 500 are also growing strongly. Recently, however, more and more strategists have begun to wonder how long this raging party can last. For example, Bank of America is now releasing its forecast, saying that the S&P 500 index will not only end this year at a lower level than it is now, but will basically stand still next year.</p><p>Prompted by the recent market rally, Bank of America chief quantitative and equity strategist Savita Subramanian raised the target point of the S&P 500 index at the end of 2021 to 4,250 points in a research report released on Wednesday local time. Although this target point has improved from their previous 3,800 points, it is still about 6% lower than Tuesday's actual closing point of 4,520 points. At the same time, Sabramanian even predicts that the S&P 500 will end 2022 at only 4,600 points, only a measly 2% higher than Tuesday's closing point.</p><p>Although the U.S. stock market has reached new highs recently, many strategists still adhere to the bearish tone and remain unwavering, and Sabramanian is one of the very typical ones. In recent weeks, all kinds of bad news have finally begun to penetrate the minds of investors, such as the slowdown of U.S. economic growth, the sharp rise in inflation, and the greater threat posed by the Delta variant virus, which has made Wall Street's sentiment increasingly becoming pessimistic. Although Sabramanian has raised Bank of America's 2021 S&P 500 index target this time, she still clearly warned investors that there are good reasons to remain highly cautious in the future.</p><p>\"The U.S. stock rally may not be over yet, but when that day really comes, the situation may be very bad.\" Sabramanian said of recent market trends. \"Investor sentiment and market valuations are already overly high, and a lot of optimism has been fully digested by stock prices. Our long-term valuation model shows that the return of the S&P 500 index in the next decade will be negative (-0.8% annually), which is the first time since the bursting of the technology bubble.\"</p><p>The key reason for Sabramanian's highly cautious view is that wage growth, rising input costs, and supply chain problems are all posing a major threat to corporate profit margins, which will bring what she calls \"downside risks to corporate earnings under upward pressure of inflation\".</p><p>The fact is that inflation and the Federal Reserve have become major worries on Wall Street. Sabramanian pointed out that the Federal Reserve has signaled that it may begin to reduce the scale of its bond purchase program later this year, which means that the performance of the stock market will become worse in the future. In the final analysis, the big bull market of U.S. stocks over the past decade is actually closely related to the continuous expansion of the Fed's balance sheet after the global financial crisis.</p><p>She also wrote that at the same time, from the perspective of overall stock investment allocation, Wall Street is currently \"neutral on U.S. stocks, but the proximity to the'sell 'end is unprecedented since 2007, which means that the S&P The return rate of the 500 index in the next twelve months is worrying.\"</p><p>In fact, as mentioned earlier, pessimism is affecting more and more strategists on Wall Street. Bearishness has become a relatively common phenomenon, and warnings can be said to be one after another. For example, in the latest research reports or media interviews, major institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup have all issued their own early warnings, saying that the continued rising momentum of U.S. stocks may be interrupted or subverted. The raging Delta variant, the faltering global economic recovery, or the withdrawal of central banks from pandemic-era stimulus plans, all of which come with huge risks.</p><p>\"High valuations make the market more vulnerable day by day.\" Christian Mueller-Glissmann, general manager of portfolio strategy and asset allocation at Goldman Sachs, pointed out in an interview with the media, \"If new negative factors enter the market, It may cause a rapid de-risking market in the field of growth stocks.\"</p><p>The team of Citi strategists headed by Chris Montagu issued a warning from another angle. In their research report, they pointed out that from the perspective of stock positions, the current market has entered an extremely bullish range, and the ratio of long positions to short positions in the S&P 500 Index is close to 10 to 1. It is estimated that as long as the index falls by a mere 2.2%, half of these long positions will suffer losses. This means that even a small consolidation is enough to cause the forced liquidation of these long positions.</p><p>In a research report, Morgan Stanley downgraded U.S. stocks to underweight and global stocks to flat, citing \"huge risks\" in October. Credit Suisse also stated that their position is to slightly reduce its holdings of U.S. stocks, citing extreme valuations and emerging regulatory risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10bdc0ec6ada49f1d63f6803791a07ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although no institution has clearly asserted that there will be a major sell-off in the near future, after the summer rally, the valuation of the US stock market is seriously high, and investors don't have much cash \"ammunition\" left, which means that the market is facing any bad news. In the face, the situation is very fragile. As of the end of August, the S&P 500 index has been rising for seven consecutive months. This situation has occurred for the first time since January 2018, and its prosperity will inevitably decline. Many observers believe that in September, a month with obvious seasonal weakness, a setback is probably inevitable.</p><p>\"We are entering a new stage, and various economic data released in September will show a weak trend. At the same time, due to the spread of the Delta variant virus and the reopening of schools, risks are high again.\" Morgan Stanley cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets pointed out in an interview with the media, \"If these data are really difficult to be optimistic, it is only a matter of time before market valuations adjust.\"</p><p>Retail investors actually played a key role in the U.S. stock market's rally this summer. According to statistics from JPMorgan Chase, between July and August, they invested a total of nearly $30 billion in cash into U.S. stocks and U.S. stock ETFs, and the investment flow data in these two months also hit a record high. JPMorgan Chase predicts that as long as the loose monetary policy persists, these people are entirely likely to play the role of \"ballast stone\" of the market and maintain its stability. However, the prospect of loose monetary policy itself is now full of variables due to reduction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137dd1e50255537b584133a33ee3b109\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"Retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds, and this steady and strong capital inflow greatly reduces the possibility of stock market consolidation.\" A team of global strategists headed by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou at JPMorgan Chase wrote in a research report. \"Whether the upcoming policy changes of the Federal Reserve will affect retail investors' views on the stock market needs to be closely watched.\"</p><p>Now, both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have set the tone for cutting asset purchases, and this is undoubtedly the ultimate test for the attitude of retail investors. Although it is estimated that the Fed will not release any substantive news about the reduction until at least November, and rate hike is far away in the future, the memory of rate hike almost killing the bull market in 2018 has indeed been deeply imprinted in the minds of many people.</p><p>Bloomberg's analysis report shows that from a technical point of view, the possibility of a round of setbacks in U.S. stocks is also increasing. Both kinetic energy and volatility show that institutional sentiment has overheated. As Mueller-Glisman summed it up: \"The key point is that we are faced with a lot of possible negative shocks, but there is almost no decent buffer at all.\"</p><p>Of course, pessimism is by no means the only voice on Wall Street. For example, Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial pointed out in a research report that so far, the performance of U.S. stocks this year has been very strong. \"In the past, there were eight times in the ten years when U.S. stocks started the year with the strongest performance. It was up for the last four months.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e15a44ea01fe4e25cac1fdb5d5fc8b6\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, pointed out in a research report that \"strong economic and corporate fundamentals mean that the recovery is completely sustainable and the prices of risky assets can go further higher,\" but added that she expected everyone to see only \"moderate rises in stock prices\" in the future, accompanied by \"more frequent retracements.\"</p><p>Sabramanian offers advice to investors who are relatively pessimistic. She pointed out that \"in a low interest rate environment with rising inflation, the yield of anti-inflation bonds will become a scarce resource\".</p><p>In this environment, she prefers sectors that \"can benefit from inflation\", such as dividend-paying stocks in energy, finance and raw materials sectors. She added that in this environment, small-cap stocks will also perform better than average because these companies are \"more closely related to U.S. gross domestic product/capital expenditures, and unlike the S&P 500, the current valuation means that they can still contribute in the next decade.\"</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks are bearish by Wall Street investment banks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks are bearish by Wall Street investment banks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 20:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>In recent weeks, all kinds of bad news have finally begun to penetrate the minds of investors, such as the slowdown of U.S. economic growth, the sharp rise in inflation, and the greater threat posed by the Delta variant virus, which has made Wall Street's sentiment increasingly becoming pessimistic.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa01bcdbd6932a5b9f50468e2512433\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Since the beginning of 2021, the U.S. stock market can be said to have continued its strong rise since 2020. The current water level has more than doubled compared with the bottom during the epidemic last year. At the same time, the profits of the S&P 500 are also growing strongly. Recently, however, more and more strategists have begun to wonder how long this raging party can last. For example, Bank of America is now releasing its forecast, saying that the S&P 500 index will not only end this year at a lower level than it is now, but will basically stand still next year.</p><p>Prompted by the recent market rally, Bank of America chief quantitative and equity strategist Savita Subramanian raised the target point of the S&P 500 index at the end of 2021 to 4,250 points in a research report released on Wednesday local time. Although this target point has improved from their previous 3,800 points, it is still about 6% lower than Tuesday's actual closing point of 4,520 points. At the same time, Sabramanian even predicts that the S&P 500 will end 2022 at only 4,600 points, only a measly 2% higher than Tuesday's closing point.</p><p>Although the U.S. stock market has reached new highs recently, many strategists still adhere to the bearish tone and remain unwavering, and Sabramanian is one of the very typical ones. In recent weeks, all kinds of bad news have finally begun to penetrate the minds of investors, such as the slowdown of U.S. economic growth, the sharp rise in inflation, and the greater threat posed by the Delta variant virus, which has made Wall Street's sentiment increasingly becoming pessimistic. Although Sabramanian has raised Bank of America's 2021 S&P 500 index target this time, she still clearly warned investors that there are good reasons to remain highly cautious in the future.</p><p>\"The U.S. stock rally may not be over yet, but when that day really comes, the situation may be very bad.\" Sabramanian said of recent market trends. \"Investor sentiment and market valuations are already overly high, and a lot of optimism has been fully digested by stock prices. Our long-term valuation model shows that the return of the S&P 500 index in the next decade will be negative (-0.8% annually), which is the first time since the bursting of the technology bubble.\"</p><p>The key reason for Sabramanian's highly cautious view is that wage growth, rising input costs, and supply chain problems are all posing a major threat to corporate profit margins, which will bring what she calls \"downside risks to corporate earnings under upward pressure of inflation\".</p><p>The fact is that inflation and the Federal Reserve have become major worries on Wall Street. Sabramanian pointed out that the Federal Reserve has signaled that it may begin to reduce the scale of its bond purchase program later this year, which means that the performance of the stock market will become worse in the future. In the final analysis, the big bull market of U.S. stocks over the past decade is actually closely related to the continuous expansion of the Fed's balance sheet after the global financial crisis.</p><p>She also wrote that at the same time, from the perspective of overall stock investment allocation, Wall Street is currently \"neutral on U.S. stocks, but the proximity to the'sell 'end is unprecedented since 2007, which means that the S&P The return rate of the 500 index in the next twelve months is worrying.\"</p><p>In fact, as mentioned earlier, pessimism is affecting more and more strategists on Wall Street. Bearishness has become a relatively common phenomenon, and warnings can be said to be one after another. For example, in the latest research reports or media interviews, major institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup have all issued their own early warnings, saying that the continued rising momentum of U.S. stocks may be interrupted or subverted. The raging Delta variant, the faltering global economic recovery, or the withdrawal of central banks from pandemic-era stimulus plans, all of which come with huge risks.</p><p>\"High valuations make the market more vulnerable day by day.\" Christian Mueller-Glissmann, general manager of portfolio strategy and asset allocation at Goldman Sachs, pointed out in an interview with the media, \"If new negative factors enter the market, It may cause a rapid de-risking market in the field of growth stocks.\"</p><p>The team of Citi strategists headed by Chris Montagu issued a warning from another angle. In their research report, they pointed out that from the perspective of stock positions, the current market has entered an extremely bullish range, and the ratio of long positions to short positions in the S&P 500 Index is close to 10 to 1. It is estimated that as long as the index falls by a mere 2.2%, half of these long positions will suffer losses. This means that even a small consolidation is enough to cause the forced liquidation of these long positions.</p><p>In a research report, Morgan Stanley downgraded U.S. stocks to underweight and global stocks to flat, citing \"huge risks\" in October. Credit Suisse also stated that their position is to slightly reduce its holdings of U.S. stocks, citing extreme valuations and emerging regulatory risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10bdc0ec6ada49f1d63f6803791a07ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although no institution has clearly asserted that there will be a major sell-off in the near future, after the summer rally, the valuation of the US stock market is seriously high, and investors don't have much cash \"ammunition\" left, which means that the market is facing any bad news. In the face, the situation is very fragile. As of the end of August, the S&P 500 index has been rising for seven consecutive months. This situation has occurred for the first time since January 2018, and its prosperity will inevitably decline. Many observers believe that in September, a month with obvious seasonal weakness, a setback is probably inevitable.</p><p>\"We are entering a new stage, and various economic data released in September will show a weak trend. At the same time, due to the spread of the Delta variant virus and the reopening of schools, risks are high again.\" Morgan Stanley cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets pointed out in an interview with the media, \"If these data are really difficult to be optimistic, it is only a matter of time before market valuations adjust.\"</p><p>Retail investors actually played a key role in the U.S. stock market's rally this summer. According to statistics from JPMorgan Chase, between July and August, they invested a total of nearly $30 billion in cash into U.S. stocks and U.S. stock ETFs, and the investment flow data in these two months also hit a record high. JPMorgan Chase predicts that as long as the loose monetary policy persists, these people are entirely likely to play the role of \"ballast stone\" of the market and maintain its stability. However, the prospect of loose monetary policy itself is now full of variables due to reduction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137dd1e50255537b584133a33ee3b109\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"Retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds, and this steady and strong capital inflow greatly reduces the possibility of stock market consolidation.\" A team of global strategists headed by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou at JPMorgan Chase wrote in a research report. \"Whether the upcoming policy changes of the Federal Reserve will affect retail investors' views on the stock market needs to be closely watched.\"</p><p>Now, both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have set the tone for cutting asset purchases, and this is undoubtedly the ultimate test for the attitude of retail investors. Although it is estimated that the Fed will not release any substantive news about the reduction until at least November, and rate hike is far away in the future, the memory of rate hike almost killing the bull market in 2018 has indeed been deeply imprinted in the minds of many people.</p><p>Bloomberg's analysis report shows that from a technical point of view, the possibility of a round of setbacks in U.S. stocks is also increasing. Both kinetic energy and volatility show that institutional sentiment has overheated. As Mueller-Glisman summed it up: \"The key point is that we are faced with a lot of possible negative shocks, but there is almost no decent buffer at all.\"</p><p>Of course, pessimism is by no means the only voice on Wall Street. For example, Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial pointed out in a research report that so far, the performance of U.S. stocks this year has been very strong. \"In the past, there were eight times in the ten years when U.S. stocks started the year with the strongest performance. It was up for the last four months.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e15a44ea01fe4e25cac1fdb5d5fc8b6\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, pointed out in a research report that \"strong economic and corporate fundamentals mean that the recovery is completely sustainable and the prices of risky assets can go further higher,\" but added that she expected everyone to see only \"moderate rises in stock prices\" in the future, accompanied by \"more frequent retracements.\"</p><p>Sabramanian offers advice to investors who are relatively pessimistic. She pointed out that \"in a low interest rate environment with rising inflation, the yield of anti-inflation bonds will become a scarce resource\".</p><p>In this environment, she prefers sectors that \"can benefit from inflation\", such as dividend-paying stocks in energy, finance and raw materials sectors. She added that in this environment, small-cap stocks will also perform better than average because these companies are \"more closely related to U.S. gross domestic product/capital expenditures, and unlike the S&P 500, the current valuation means that they can still contribute in the next decade.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-Wa4vp_C8ZLwlVOIkaddPA\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa01bcdbd6932a5b9f50468e2512433","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-Wa4vp_C8ZLwlVOIkaddPA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159165577","content_text":"在最近几周当中，各种利空消息终于开始渗透到投资者的头脑当中，比如美国经济增长减速，通货膨胀大举抬升，德尔塔变种病毒带来的更大威胁等，让华尔街的情绪日益趋向悲观。\n2021年开年至今，美股市场可说是延续了从2020年开始的强劲涨势，当下的水位较之去年疫情期间的谷底已经翻了一番有余，而与此同时，标普500强的盈利也在强势增长。不过，近期以来，越来越多的策略师们都开始怀疑这如火如荼的派对还能够延续多久。比如，美国银行现在就发布预期，说标普500指数不但今年年底的水平将低于当下，而且明年基本上将原地踏步。\n在市场近期涨势的催促下，美银首席量化和股票策略师萨布拉玛尼安（Savita Subramanian）在当地时间周三发布的研究报告当中将标普500指数2021年底目标点位调升至4250点，这一目标点位虽然较之他们之前的3800点有所提升，但是与周二4520点的实际收盘点位相比，依然要低大约6%。与此同时，萨布拉玛尼安更预计标普500指数2022年结束时将只有4600点，比起周二收盘点位只高了区区的2%。\n虽然美股市场近期以来迭创新高，但是不少策略师都依然坚持着看空的调子，毫不动摇，而萨布拉玛尼安就是其中非常典型的一个。在最近几周当中，各种利空消息终于开始渗透到投资者的头脑当中，比如美国经济增长减速，通货膨胀大举抬升，德尔塔变种病毒带来的更大威胁等，让华尔街的情绪日益趋向悲观。虽然说起来，萨布拉玛尼安这次算是提升了美银的2021年标普500指数目标点位，但是她还是明确告诫投资者，大家有充分理由在未来保持高度谨慎。\n“美股涨势也许现在还没有到结束的时候，但是当那一天真正到来，局面恐怕会非常不美妙。”萨布拉玛尼安谈到市场近期的大趋势时表示，“投资者的情绪和市场的估值都已经过度高企，大量的乐观情绪都已经被股价充分消化，而我们的长期估值模型显示，标普500指数未来十年的回报率将是负数（年均-0.8%），这种情况自科技泡沫破灭以来还是首次出现。”\n萨布拉玛尼安高度谨慎的看法，其关键理由就在于，薪资增长，输入成本上涨，以及供应链问题等都在对企业的利润率形成重大威胁，将带来她所谓的“通货膨胀上行压力下的企业盈利下行风险”。\n事实就是，通货膨胀和联储已经成为了华尔街的重大心病。萨布拉玛尼安指出，联储已经发出信号，可能在今年晚些时候开始缩减债券购买计划的规模，而这就意味着股市未来的表现将变得糟糕起来。归根结底，美股这十多年来的大牛市，其实与全球金融危机之后的联储资产负债表持续膨胀是密切关联的。\n她还写道，与此同时，从整体股票投资配置情况来看，华尔街目前是“对美股持中立立场，但是与‘卖出’一端的接近程度为2007年以来所仅见，意味着标普500指数未来十二个月的回报率堪忧”。\n事实上，正如前面所提到的，悲观情绪正在影响华尔街上越来越多的策略师，看空已经成为了一种带有相对普遍性的现象，警告声可以说是此起彼伏。比如，在最新的研究报告或者媒体访谈当中，高盛、摩根士丹利和花旗等大机构都发出了各自的预警，称美股持续上涨的势头完全可能被打断或者颠覆。德尔塔变种病毒肆虐，全球经济复苏步履蹒跚，或者是各国央行退出疫情时代刺激计划的行为，所有这一切都伴随着巨大的风险。\n“高估值使得市场的脆弱度与日俱增。”高盛投资组合策略和资产配置总经理缪勒-格利斯曼（Christian Mueller-Glissmann）接受媒体采访时指出，“如果有新的消极因素入场，就可能会在成长型股票领域当中造成迅速的去风险化行情。”\n蒙塔古（Chris Montagu）为首的花旗策略师团队则从另外一个角度发出了警告。他们在研究报告当中指出，从股票头寸角度看，当前的市场已经进入极端看涨区间，标普500指数多头头寸与空头头寸之比接近10比1。据估计，只要指数下跌区区2.2%，这些多头头寸当中就有半数将遭受损失。这也就意味着，哪怕是小规模的盘整，也足以造成这些多头头寸的强制平仓。\n摩根士丹利在研究报告当中将美股评级调降至减持，将全球股票评级调降至平持，理由是10月将伴随着“巨大的风险”。瑞士信贷也表示，他们的立场是略略减持美股，理由是估值极端化，监管风险浮现。\n\n虽然没有哪家机构明确断言近期内将有重大抛售行情发生，但是夏季涨势之后，美股市场估值严重高企，投资者也没有剩下多少现金“弹药”，这就意味着市场在任何坏消息面前，处境都是十分脆弱的。截至8月底，标普500指数已经连续七个月都在上涨，这种情况2018年1月以来还是首次出现，而盛极必衰，不少观察家都相信，在9月这个具有明显季节性弱势的月份当中，一场回挫很可能已经无可避免了。\n“我们正在进入一个新的阶段，各种9月发布的经济数据将呈现出疲软态势，而与此同时，由于德尔塔变种病毒的传播和学校重新开学，风险反而再度高企。”摩根士丹利跨资产策略师希茨（Andrew Sheets）接受媒体采访时指出，“如果这些数据真的是令人难以乐观，市场估值发生调整只是迟早的事情。”\n在美股市场今年夏季的涨势当中，散户投资者其实发挥了关键的作用。根据摩根大通的统计数据，在7月到8月之间，他们向美股和美股ETF总计投入了近300亿美元现金，这一两月投资流量数据也创下了历史新高。摩根大通预计，只要宽松货币政策持续存在，这些人完全可能扮演起市场“压舱石”的角色，保持其稳定。只不过，宽松货币政策本身的前景，现在也已经因为缩减而充满变数。\n\n“散户投资者一直在买进股票和股票基金，这种稳定而强势的资金流入使得股市发生盘整的可能性大为降低。”摩根大通以帕尼吉尔佐格鲁（Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou）为首的全球策略师团队在研究报告当中写道，“联储即将到来的政策变化是否会影响散户投资者对股市的看法，是需要予以密切关注的。”\n现在，美国联储和欧洲央行都已经定下了削减资产购买计划的基调，而这对于散户的态度无疑是一场终极测试。虽然按照估计，联储至少在11月之前都不会有任何关于缩减的实质性消息放出，而加息则更是未来很远的事情，但是2018年加息几乎扼杀牛市的记忆，的确已经深深烙印在了许多人的头脑当中。\n彭博的分析报告显示，从技术面看来，美股遭遇一轮回挫的可能性也在增大，动能和波动率都显示，机构情绪已经过热。正如缪勒-格利斯曼所总结的：“关键就在于，我们面对大量可能的负面冲击，但是几乎没有什么像样的缓冲可言。”\n当然，华尔街上也绝非只有悲观一种声音。比如，LPL Financial的迪特里克（Ryan Detrick）就在研究报告当中指出，迄今为止，美股今年的表现都非常强势，“在过去，美股开年业绩最强势的十年当中，有八次，年度的后四个月都是上涨的”。\n\nNew York Life Investments的经济学家、投资组合策略师古德温（Lauren Goodwin）在研究报告当中指出，“强势的经济和企业基本面意味着，复苏是完全可以持续的，风险资产的价格可以进一步走高”，不过又补充说，她预计未来大家将只能看到“股价的适度上涨”，而且还伴随着“更频繁的回挫”。\n萨布拉玛尼安则为那些相对悲观的投资者提供了建议。她指出，“在通胀抬头的低利率环境当中，抗通胀债券的收益率将成为稀缺资源”。\n在这种环境当中，她较为青睐那些“能够从通胀当中获益”的板块，如能源、金融和原材料板块的派息股票。她补充说，这种环境当中，小型股票也将获得好于平均水准的表现，因为这些企业“与美国国内生产总值/资本支出关联更加密切，而且与标普500指数不同的是，当前的估值意味着它们未来十年还能够有所进项”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890290100,"gmtCreate":1628118609900,"gmtModify":1703501389134,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890290100","repostId":"2156717176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156717176","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628047054,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156717176?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-04 11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Increased risk of stagflation! Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156717176","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美股仍处高位，不过已经有华尔街大行开始警告下跌的风险了。高盛就提醒投资者，市场开始变得相当不稳定了，要关注股票下跌风险，并做好对冲准备。\n高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissman","content":"<p>U.S. stocks are still at high levels, but Wall Street banks have begun to warn of the risk of a decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Investors are reminded that the market is beginning to become quite unstable, so they should pay attention to the risk of stock decline and be prepared for hedging.</p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann said in a recent research report that the S&P 500 has not fallen by 5% for 187 days, one of the longest durations in the past 100 years; As stocks and bonds become more expensive, multi-asset portfolios also become more vulnerable to interest rate and economic growth shocks.</p><p><b>Mueller-Glissmann first took a closer look at recent inflation measures, noting that breakeven inflation has outperformed other \"pro-cyclical\" assets.</b>Generally speaking, the two have been closely related throughout history; However, recent performance shows that the difference between break-even inflation and various historical correlation indicators seems to be increasing.</p><p>First, last week, EU breakeven inflation outperformed assets such as EU Cyclicals vs Defensives. And, in fact, this trend has appeared since the second quarter of this year.</p><p>Not only in Europe, but also in the United States. Since the second half of last year, US breakeves and US cyclical vs Defensives have begun to decouple continuously.</p><p><b>Breakeven inflation is commonly used to measure inflation expectations. It is important to note, however, that the rise in breakeven inflation is not reflected in the more important real interest rate.</b></p><p>On the contrary, as breakeven inflation rises, real interest rates across the term structure have been falling, and the 10 year real rate in both Europe and the United States have hit new lows in recent times.</p><p><b>Regarding the above situation, Goldman Sachs warned that such a low real interest rate level points to the market's pricing of stagflation risk, which seems to be somewhat contradictory to the economic recovery.</b>According to Goldman Sachs economists, the U.S. economic recovery is generally on track, and inflationary pressures will eventually ease.</p><p>At the heart of reflation are bonds. Bonds have risen strongly since June and the yield curve has flattened, not only hinting at the risk of near-term economic slowdown, but also showing the risk of continued prolonged stagnation in the new cycle as monetary and fiscal support disappears. Furthermore, the downward trend in long-term bond yields is largely driven by real yields, while breakeven inflation is sticky-a sign of growing concerns about stagflation. Regarding the market outlook, Goldman Sachs strategist Mueller-Glissmann said that the market may need some catalysts to reprice higher interest rates, and this week's strong employment report may help clarify future trends.</p><p><b>In addition, he also warned that the risk of stock market correction has increased. In addition, the widening gap between S&P 500 returns and changes in bond yields over the past six months, coupled with already very low real interest rates and very high stock valuations, makes stocks more vulnerable to economic growth and interest rate shocks.</b></p><p>In addition to the above reasons, Goldman Sachs also gave other reasons in the report.</p><p>For example, the Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator has fallen sharply recently. Growth optimism (RAI PC1) remains under pressure in terms of index composition. This means that while the earnings season in Europe and the United States is generally strong in the future, the market still doesn't believe that there will be more positive growth momentum at the end of the year and in the new cycle, given that the fiscal stimulus measures in the United States are beginning to disappoint and COVID-19 pandemic has dragged down consumption.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Increased risk of stagflation! Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIncreased risk of stagflation! Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 11:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks are still at high levels, but Wall Street banks have begun to warn of the risk of a decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Investors are reminded that the market is beginning to become quite unstable, so they should pay attention to the risk of stock decline and be prepared for hedging.</p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann said in a recent research report that the S&P 500 has not fallen by 5% for 187 days, one of the longest durations in the past 100 years; As stocks and bonds become more expensive, multi-asset portfolios also become more vulnerable to interest rate and economic growth shocks.</p><p><b>Mueller-Glissmann first took a closer look at recent inflation measures, noting that breakeven inflation has outperformed other \"pro-cyclical\" assets.</b>Generally speaking, the two have been closely related throughout history; However, recent performance shows that the difference between break-even inflation and various historical correlation indicators seems to be increasing.</p><p>First, last week, EU breakeven inflation outperformed assets such as EU Cyclicals vs Defensives. And, in fact, this trend has appeared since the second quarter of this year.</p><p>Not only in Europe, but also in the United States. Since the second half of last year, US breakeves and US cyclical vs Defensives have begun to decouple continuously.</p><p><b>Breakeven inflation is commonly used to measure inflation expectations. It is important to note, however, that the rise in breakeven inflation is not reflected in the more important real interest rate.</b></p><p>On the contrary, as breakeven inflation rises, real interest rates across the term structure have been falling, and the 10 year real rate in both Europe and the United States have hit new lows in recent times.</p><p><b>Regarding the above situation, Goldman Sachs warned that such a low real interest rate level points to the market's pricing of stagflation risk, which seems to be somewhat contradictory to the economic recovery.</b>According to Goldman Sachs economists, the U.S. economic recovery is generally on track, and inflationary pressures will eventually ease.</p><p>At the heart of reflation are bonds. Bonds have risen strongly since June and the yield curve has flattened, not only hinting at the risk of near-term economic slowdown, but also showing the risk of continued prolonged stagnation in the new cycle as monetary and fiscal support disappears. Furthermore, the downward trend in long-term bond yields is largely driven by real yields, while breakeven inflation is sticky-a sign of growing concerns about stagflation. Regarding the market outlook, Goldman Sachs strategist Mueller-Glissmann said that the market may need some catalysts to reprice higher interest rates, and this week's strong employment report may help clarify future trends.</p><p><b>In addition, he also warned that the risk of stock market correction has increased. In addition, the widening gap between S&P 500 returns and changes in bond yields over the past six months, coupled with already very low real interest rates and very high stock valuations, makes stocks more vulnerable to economic growth and interest rate shocks.</b></p><p>In addition to the above reasons, Goldman Sachs also gave other reasons in the report.</p><p>For example, the Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator has fallen sharply recently. Growth optimism (RAI PC1) remains under pressure in terms of index composition. This means that while the earnings season in Europe and the United States is generally strong in the future, the market still doesn't believe that there will be more positive growth momentum at the end of the year and in the new cycle, given that the fiscal stimulus measures in the United States are beginning to disappoint and COVID-19 pandemic has dragged down consumption.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637091\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6684517506a0b0f4c4c5a1c4889261","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637091","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156717176","content_text":"美股仍处高位，不过已经有华尔街大行开始警告下跌的风险了。高盛就提醒投资者，市场开始变得相当不稳定了，要关注股票下跌风险，并做好对冲准备。\n高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissmann在最近的一篇研报中表示，标普500指数已经有187天没有出现下跌5%的情况，为过去100年来最长持续时间之一；随着股票和债券越来越贵，多资产组合也变得更容易受到利率和经济增长冲击的影响。\nMueller-Glissmann首先仔细观察了近期的通胀指标，指出盈亏平衡通胀表现优于其他“顺周期”资产。通常来说，这两者在历史上一直是密切相关的；但是近期的表现显示，盈亏平衡通胀与各种历史相关性指标的差异似乎越来越大。\n首先，上周欧洲盈亏平衡通胀（EU breakeven inflation）表现优于周期股等资产（EU Cyclicals vs Defensives）。并且，实际上今年二季度以来就已经出现了这一趋势。\n不仅是欧洲，美国也是如此。去年下半年开始美国盈亏平衡通胀（US breakeves）和顺周期资产（US cyclical vs Defensives）就开始不断脱钩了。\n盈亏平衡通胀通常被用于衡量通胀预期。然而需要注意的是，盈亏平衡通胀的上升并没有反映在更重要的实际利率上。\n相反，随着盈亏平衡通胀的上升，整个期限结构的实际利率一直在下降，欧洲和美国的10年期实际利率均在近期创下了新低。\n对于上述情形，高盛警告，如此低的实际利率水平指向了市场对滞涨风险的定价，而这似乎与经济复苏有些矛盾。在高盛经济学家看来，美国经济复苏大体上处在轨道上，通胀压力最终也会缓解。\n\n 通货再膨胀的核心是债券。债券自6月以来强劲上扬，收益率曲线趋平，不仅暗示了近期经济增长放缓的风险，同时也显示了随着货币和财政支持的消失，新一周期内持续长期停滞的风险。此外，长期限债券收益率下行主要是由实际收益率推动的，而盈亏平衡通胀具有粘性——这表明对滞涨的担忧日益加剧。\n\n对于后市的走势，高盛策略师Mueller-Glissmann表示，市场可能需要一些催化剂来重新定价更高的利率，本周强劲的就业报告可能有助于明晰日后的趋势。\n此外，他还警告，股市调整的风险已经增加了。此外，过去6个月，标普500回报率和债券收益率变化之间的差距不断扩大，再加上实际利率已经非常低了，且股票估值非常高，这使得股票更易受到经济增长和利率的冲击。\n除了上述原因之外，高盛还在报告中给出了其他理由。\n比如，高盛风险偏好指标（Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator）近期重挫。从指数组成来看，增长乐观情绪（RAI PC1）仍处于压力之下。这意味着尽管往后看欧洲和美国的财报季总体强劲，但是考虑到美国财政刺激措施开始令人失望，以及新冠疫情拖累了消费，市场仍然不相信在年底和新周期会出现更多积极的增长动力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147256857,"gmtCreate":1626360694779,"gmtModify":1703758722034,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147256857","repostId":"2151217519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151217519","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626315521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151217519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 10:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The window of the bull market is about to close","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151217519","media":"格隆汇","summary":"且行且珍惜","content":"<p>The Fed chairman has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>Economic data is keeping betting on the other side, though.</p><p>On July 13, local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month in June, both significantly exceeding market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, and also setting a record high in 1991. The highest record since November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even taking into account the low base caused by the epidemic last year, the deterioration of inflation data is still visible to the naked eye. After excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by as much as 4.5% year-on-year. However, through the previous foreshadowing, the reaction of the capital market has become more and more dull. Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes only fell slightly by about 0.3%, and there was little change in U.S. debt and gold.</p><p>Whether the market continues to believe Powell's argument or not, for the Fed, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing to stimulate the economy is becoming increasingly fierce.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>While it is too early to talk about rate hike, it is appropriate to start talking about tapering bond purchases.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>Taper, who has been shouting for several months, when will he come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at doing \"expectation adjustment\", releasing signals to the market from time to time. If it is hawkish and dovish, it can be released for a full year, giving investors enough time to take precautions and hedge. After several repetitions, more than half of the people bet on the policy, and the Fed's turn is much smoother.</p><p>Since the U.S. CPI crossed the 2% safety margin in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will reduce its bond purchases (Taper) and even rate hike within the year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, short-term inflation can be tolerated before these two goals are achieved, but it does not rule out that persistent excessive inflation will change the attitude of the FED.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Fed's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this. Whether immediate action is needed no longer depends on how much inflationary pressure is, but how the Fed judges it.</p><p>According to the monetary policy report released by the Federal Reserve on July 9, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, and the surge in labor demand exceeds the recovery in labor supply; Supply chain bottlenecks have eased, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories indicate that supply chain pressure is still considerable.</p><p>Regardless of the statement of Fed officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four. Four consecutive months of inflation data have continuously moved the market's expected inflection point forward. If the PPI data released next also exceeds expectations, the pressure on the production side will continue to be transmitted to the consumer side, which will further deepen the market's concerns, and the expectation of exit action will continue to advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the more accepted view is that the Federal Reserve will signal to reduce bond purchases at its annual symposium in Jackson Hole in August. It is expected that it will focus on hints and releases first, and when it will be implemented? The forecasts of Fed officials and institutions are focused on the end of this year and early next year. Before that, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may still be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is convinced that the inflection point of global liquidity will eventually come.</p><p><b>At this juncture, the domestic central bank unexpectedly lowered the reserve requirement ratio again, releasing about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trend, the reason is very reasonable.</b></p><p>Due to the large recovery gap in various countries during last year's epidemic, China's rapid recovery and its huge and complete manufacturing supply capacity have received a wave of foreign trade dividends. The rapid economic growth is due to a large number of overseas export orders. But now, with the epidemic control and the increase in vaccination rates in developed countries in the United States and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to return, and the demand for China's foreign trade will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months show that the global manufacturing While the PMI boom has strengthened, China's new export orders have dropped significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In this context, it has become the consensus of all parties that the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing, and the currency is biased towards loosening again, precisely to hedge this impact in advance.</p><p>But in the past 10 years, the average interest rate spread between China and the United States was 133BP. In September last year, the interest rate spread between China and the United States was 235BP, but now it is only 155 BP. From this perspective, the room for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States starts to collect water, the flexibility of monetary policy The space will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nowadays, the mismatch between the monetary policies of China and the United States has caused new concerns in the market. How much room do we have for maneuvering and deploying?</p><p>However, yesterday Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, expressed his views,<b>He believes that the discussion on the shift of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has little impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Has the ten-year pursuit of monetary independence come true?</b></h3>We might as well look back at what has happened in the past 20 years.</p><p>After China's accession to the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence of China and the United States deepened, and everything seemed to be developing in a beautiful direction. China's GDP growth rate exceeded 10% year after year, and it became a veritable factory of the world. The United States was able to continue to play finance and real estate.</p><p>However, in 2008, everything came to an abrupt end.</p><p>A serious financial crisis broke out in the United States, which quickly swept the world. China also suffered greatly from it, and rushed to launch the \"4 trillion\" rescue plan. This has caused a \"rift\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what has gone wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>It is believed that after China's accession to the WTO, the United States has removed its own manufacturing industry more unscrupulously, and the emptiness of the real economy has led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially finance, which is the root of the crisis, so Obama shouted the banner of the return of the manufacturing industry.</p><p>China, on the other hand, has a more subtle attitude. The United States relies too much on the status of the US dollar and debt expansion to develop its economy, which determines that the cyclical fluctuations of the US dollar will be more violent. However, the United States can use the world to hedge the fluctuations of the US dollar, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those that are deeply bound to the United States. Monetary policy can only follow passively. When the US dollar expands, it has a good life, but when the US dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a sharp economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed the WTO dividend for many years, and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy\". With the advent of the economic crisis, the demand in Europe and America declined rapidly, and foreign trade plummeted. Accompanied by the closure of a large number of export manufacturing industries and the rapid expansion of unemployed population, this is the manifestation.</p><p><b>In a country with a large size and a large population like China, stability is more important than anything else.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China has also begun a series of adjustments, the most important of which is to follow its own path. To put it more bluntly, it is to find a way to get out of the lessons learned from over-binding the United States.</p><p>As for the specific practices, the Belt and Road Initiative is one, infrastructure + real estate is one, the shift from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is also one, and<b>The adjustment of monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to try to do foreign trade with some neighboring countries, directly using people's settlement, which promoted the rapid increase of the international use of RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan. In 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, under the \"811 Exchange Rate Reform\", the RMB was changed from a single peg to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving corresponding weights to form a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, the changes of the RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, so as to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level and form a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it has shifted from \"single anchor\" to \"multi-anchor\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a lot of prices. For example, after the \"811 exchange rate reform\", the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly, coupled with loopholes in foreign exchange control, countless enterprises took advantage of this loophole to constantly arbitrage foreign exchange and export overseas, and China lost 900 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the whole, the results are still great. At least, China has gradually shown its independence in the choice of monetary policy. This may be the confidence that Director Sun said.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What does the mismatch between Chinese and American currencies bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered a rate hike cycle, and almost all emerging economies were wiped out. Some countries were particularly tragic. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa and Turkey all fell to record lows, and Brazil's GDP hit the largest drop in history.</p><p><b>As the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the opportunity and took the initiative to defend itself, the depreciation rate of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was at a low level in emerging markets, avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the United States and Europe tended to be synchronized; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the pace of the People's Bank of China deviated from the pace of the United States and Europe, and it was one step ahead in collecting and releasing water.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held 9 joint rate hike, and the Federal Funds rate increased to 2.25%-2.50%. At this time, China is cutting interest rates. On March 1, May 11, June 28, and August 26, 2015, the one-year loan benchmark interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate was also lowered by 0.25 percentage points several times to 1.75%; The benchmark interest rates of other grades of loans and deposits, and the interest rates of personal housing provident fund deposits and loans will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>In the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve once again released a lot of water, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches were not deliberately pursued, but more decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it needed to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, it was through rapid epidemic prevention and control, replacing the old path of relying purely on monetary stimulus with export dividends. This RRR cut is also quite similar to that of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely ignoring the Federal Reserve. After all, the locomotive of the global economy is still the United States. It is precisely because we want to strike a balance between the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with issues such as RMB depreciation pressure and capital outflow if the Federal Reserve tightens the pace of liquidity significantly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressure.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expected. Externally, we face the risk of export reduction, and the currency needs to worry about the pressure brought by the Fed's monetary inflection point. The window for relatively loose liquidity is limited; Internally, the investment motivation is insufficient, and the effect of the internal circular economy driven by consumption with high hopes is not significant enough. Once the funds are tightened, many small, medium and micro enterprises will face the shortage of demand and funds like last year.</p><p>Under the combined action of internal and external pressures, the central bank's next more likely actions on monetary policy may not be to relax liquidity or join the ranks of obvious tightening, but more likely to be total volume control, structural adjustment, directional guidance, and strict control of the idling of regulatory funds. Truly guide liquidity to where it really should go, such as small, medium and micro enterprises, people's livelihood economy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovation and Technology</a>, green economy, etc.</p><p>The country now has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and people's consumption economy, and its kinetic energy is also very strong. From this, we can also imagine that any obstacles that affect the realization of this goal will continue to be suppressed and cleaned up, such as real estate speculation, anti-monopoly, education, medical care and so on.</p><p>But in either case, it may not be a very optimistic situation for the capital market.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>The stock price depends on the industry in the long term, fundamentals in the medium term, and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to the present, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and Big A has also changed from general growth to differentiation and grouping.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the figure below-differentiation is happening. If the next currency is really tight, then the fourth quadrant-the mourning capital market will probably repeat itself, but it's just a matter of how much.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When investing, we must not hesitate to decide whether to stay or not with the worst expectations, and listen to the thunder in silent places.</p><p>As for those investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunities may not be much.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The window of the bull market is about to close</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe window of the bull market is about to close\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 10:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Fed chairman has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>Economic data is keeping betting on the other side, though.</p><p>On July 13, local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month in June, both significantly exceeding market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, and also setting a record high in 1991. The highest record since November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even taking into account the low base caused by the epidemic last year, the deterioration of inflation data is still visible to the naked eye. After excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by as much as 4.5% year-on-year. However, through the previous foreshadowing, the reaction of the capital market has become more and more dull. Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes only fell slightly by about 0.3%, and there was little change in U.S. debt and gold.</p><p>Whether the market continues to believe Powell's argument or not, for the Fed, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing to stimulate the economy is becoming increasingly fierce.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>While it is too early to talk about rate hike, it is appropriate to start talking about tapering bond purchases.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>Taper, who has been shouting for several months, when will he come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at doing \"expectation adjustment\", releasing signals to the market from time to time. If it is hawkish and dovish, it can be released for a full year, giving investors enough time to take precautions and hedge. After several repetitions, more than half of the people bet on the policy, and the Fed's turn is much smoother.</p><p>Since the U.S. CPI crossed the 2% safety margin in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will reduce its bond purchases (Taper) and even rate hike within the year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, short-term inflation can be tolerated before these two goals are achieved, but it does not rule out that persistent excessive inflation will change the attitude of the FED.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Fed's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this. Whether immediate action is needed no longer depends on how much inflationary pressure is, but how the Fed judges it.</p><p>According to the monetary policy report released by the Federal Reserve on July 9, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, and the surge in labor demand exceeds the recovery in labor supply; Supply chain bottlenecks have eased, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories indicate that supply chain pressure is still considerable.</p><p>Regardless of the statement of Fed officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four. Four consecutive months of inflation data have continuously moved the market's expected inflection point forward. If the PPI data released next also exceeds expectations, the pressure on the production side will continue to be transmitted to the consumer side, which will further deepen the market's concerns, and the expectation of exit action will continue to advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the more accepted view is that the Federal Reserve will signal to reduce bond purchases at its annual symposium in Jackson Hole in August. It is expected that it will focus on hints and releases first, and when it will be implemented? The forecasts of Fed officials and institutions are focused on the end of this year and early next year. Before that, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may still be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is convinced that the inflection point of global liquidity will eventually come.</p><p><b>At this juncture, the domestic central bank unexpectedly lowered the reserve requirement ratio again, releasing about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trend, the reason is very reasonable.</b></p><p>Due to the large recovery gap in various countries during last year's epidemic, China's rapid recovery and its huge and complete manufacturing supply capacity have received a wave of foreign trade dividends. The rapid economic growth is due to a large number of overseas export orders. But now, with the epidemic control and the increase in vaccination rates in developed countries in the United States and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to return, and the demand for China's foreign trade will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months show that the global manufacturing While the PMI boom has strengthened, China's new export orders have dropped significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In this context, it has become the consensus of all parties that the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing, and the currency is biased towards loosening again, precisely to hedge this impact in advance.</p><p>But in the past 10 years, the average interest rate spread between China and the United States was 133BP. In September last year, the interest rate spread between China and the United States was 235BP, but now it is only 155 BP. From this perspective, the room for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States starts to collect water, the flexibility of monetary policy The space will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nowadays, the mismatch between the monetary policies of China and the United States has caused new concerns in the market. How much room do we have for maneuvering and deploying?</p><p>However, yesterday Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, expressed his views,<b>He believes that the discussion on the shift of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has little impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Has the ten-year pursuit of monetary independence come true?</b></h3>We might as well look back at what has happened in the past 20 years.</p><p>After China's accession to the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence of China and the United States deepened, and everything seemed to be developing in a beautiful direction. China's GDP growth rate exceeded 10% year after year, and it became a veritable factory of the world. The United States was able to continue to play finance and real estate.</p><p>However, in 2008, everything came to an abrupt end.</p><p>A serious financial crisis broke out in the United States, which quickly swept the world. China also suffered greatly from it, and rushed to launch the \"4 trillion\" rescue plan. This has caused a \"rift\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what has gone wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>It is believed that after China's accession to the WTO, the United States has removed its own manufacturing industry more unscrupulously, and the emptiness of the real economy has led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially finance, which is the root of the crisis, so Obama shouted the banner of the return of the manufacturing industry.</p><p>China, on the other hand, has a more subtle attitude. The United States relies too much on the status of the US dollar and debt expansion to develop its economy, which determines that the cyclical fluctuations of the US dollar will be more violent. However, the United States can use the world to hedge the fluctuations of the US dollar, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those that are deeply bound to the United States. Monetary policy can only follow passively. When the US dollar expands, it has a good life, but when the US dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a sharp economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed the WTO dividend for many years, and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy\". With the advent of the economic crisis, the demand in Europe and America declined rapidly, and foreign trade plummeted. Accompanied by the closure of a large number of export manufacturing industries and the rapid expansion of unemployed population, this is the manifestation.</p><p><b>In a country with a large size and a large population like China, stability is more important than anything else.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China has also begun a series of adjustments, the most important of which is to follow its own path. To put it more bluntly, it is to find a way to get out of the lessons learned from over-binding the United States.</p><p>As for the specific practices, the Belt and Road Initiative is one, infrastructure + real estate is one, the shift from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is also one, and<b>The adjustment of monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to try to do foreign trade with some neighboring countries, directly using people's settlement, which promoted the rapid increase of the international use of RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan. In 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, under the \"811 Exchange Rate Reform\", the RMB was changed from a single peg to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving corresponding weights to form a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, the changes of the RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, so as to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level and form a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it has shifted from \"single anchor\" to \"multi-anchor\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a lot of prices. For example, after the \"811 exchange rate reform\", the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly, coupled with loopholes in foreign exchange control, countless enterprises took advantage of this loophole to constantly arbitrage foreign exchange and export overseas, and China lost 900 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the whole, the results are still great. At least, China has gradually shown its independence in the choice of monetary policy. This may be the confidence that Director Sun said.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What does the mismatch between Chinese and American currencies bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered a rate hike cycle, and almost all emerging economies were wiped out. Some countries were particularly tragic. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa and Turkey all fell to record lows, and Brazil's GDP hit the largest drop in history.</p><p><b>As the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the opportunity and took the initiative to defend itself, the depreciation rate of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was at a low level in emerging markets, avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the United States and Europe tended to be synchronized; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the pace of the People's Bank of China deviated from the pace of the United States and Europe, and it was one step ahead in collecting and releasing water.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held 9 joint rate hike, and the Federal Funds rate increased to 2.25%-2.50%. At this time, China is cutting interest rates. On March 1, May 11, June 28, and August 26, 2015, the one-year loan benchmark interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate was also lowered by 0.25 percentage points several times to 1.75%; The benchmark interest rates of other grades of loans and deposits, and the interest rates of personal housing provident fund deposits and loans will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>In the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve once again released a lot of water, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches were not deliberately pursued, but more decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it needed to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, it was through rapid epidemic prevention and control, replacing the old path of relying purely on monetary stimulus with export dividends. This RRR cut is also quite similar to that of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely ignoring the Federal Reserve. After all, the locomotive of the global economy is still the United States. It is precisely because we want to strike a balance between the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with issues such as RMB depreciation pressure and capital outflow if the Federal Reserve tightens the pace of liquidity significantly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressure.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expected. Externally, we face the risk of export reduction, and the currency needs to worry about the pressure brought by the Fed's monetary inflection point. The window for relatively loose liquidity is limited; Internally, the investment motivation is insufficient, and the effect of the internal circular economy driven by consumption with high hopes is not significant enough. Once the funds are tightened, many small, medium and micro enterprises will face the shortage of demand and funds like last year.</p><p>Under the combined action of internal and external pressures, the central bank's next more likely actions on monetary policy may not be to relax liquidity or join the ranks of obvious tightening, but more likely to be total volume control, structural adjustment, directional guidance, and strict control of the idling of regulatory funds. Truly guide liquidity to where it really should go, such as small, medium and micro enterprises, people's livelihood economy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovation and Technology</a>, green economy, etc.</p><p>The country now has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and people's consumption economy, and its kinetic energy is also very strong. From this, we can also imagine that any obstacles that affect the realization of this goal will continue to be suppressed and cleaned up, such as real estate speculation, anti-monopoly, education, medical care and so on.</p><p>But in either case, it may not be a very optimistic situation for the capital market.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>The stock price depends on the industry in the long term, fundamentals in the medium term, and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to the present, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and Big A has also changed from general growth to differentiation and grouping.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the figure below-differentiation is happening. If the next currency is really tight, then the fourth quadrant-the mourning capital market will probably repeat itself, but it's just a matter of how much.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When investing, we must not hesitate to decide whether to stay or not with the worst expectations, and listen to the thunder in silent places.</p><p>As for those investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunities may not be much.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a97a16afe8e75d415a74db18ceb0a4c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2151217519","content_text":"美联储主席不止一次地告诉世界，通胀是暂时的。\n不过，经济数据正在不断押注另一边。\n当地时间7月13日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，6月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增长5.4%，环比上涨0.9%，均大幅超出市场预期的5%、0.5%，同时创下1991年11月以来最高记录。\n\n即便考虑到去年疫情导致的低基数，通胀数据的恶化依然肉眼可见，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比涨幅高达4.5%。但是，通过前几次的铺垫，资本市场的反应越来越平淡，昨晚美股三大指数只微跌0.3%左右，美债、黄金异动都不大。\n无论市场是否继续相信鲍威尔的论调，对美联储来说，通胀压力和货币宽松刺激经济的矛盾日益激烈。\n正如联储官员戴利所说，虽然现在谈论加息还为时过早，但开始谈论缩减购债是合适的。\n\n\n1\n喊了几个月的Taper，啥时候来？\n\n\n美联储很擅长做“预期调节”这件事，不定时地向市场释放信号，鹰派的、鸽派的，放风可以放足一年，给投资者充足的时间做预防和对冲。反复几次下来，和政策对赌的人少了一大半，美联储的拐弯就平滑了许多。\n从3月份美国CPI跨过2%的安全边界之后，押注美联储在年内将缩减购债规模（Taper）甚至加息的投资者越来越多。虽然鲍威尔的货币政策框架锚定的是经济和就业，这两个目标未完成前，短期通胀是可以被容忍的，但不排除持续过高的通胀改变FED的态度。\n不过，短期内马上改变美联储货币政策显然不太现实，毕竟事态已经这样了，需不需要立即采取行动就不再取决于通胀压力有多大，而是美联储如何判断。\n根据7月9日美联储发布的货币政策报告，美国经济正在强劲复苏，但是劳动力市场存在结构性问题，劳动力需求的激增超过了劳动力供应的复苏；供应链瓶颈有所缓解，但历史高位的订单积压和历史低位的客户库存表明供应链压力依然不小。\n无论美联储官员的表态如何，市场的预期不外乎以下4种。连续4个月的通胀数据，不断将市场的预期拐点向前移。如果接下来公布的PPI数据同样大超预期，生产端的压力继续向消费端传导，将会进一步加深市场的担忧，退出动作的预期也会继续提前。\n\n当前，比较受认可的观点是，美联储将在8月的杰克逊霍尔年度专题研讨会上抛出缩减购债信号。预期会先以暗示、放风为主，具体何时落地，联储官员和机构的预测集中在今年年底和明年年初。在此之前，7月底的FOMC会议或许会透露出一些关键信息。\n短期上或许还存在诸多不确定性，但远期上，所有人都确信，全球流动性拐点终将到来。\n在这个节骨眼上，国内央行却意外地再度降准，释放出约1万亿的流动性，但再看看目前的经济数据趋势，理由是很能说得通的。\n由于去年的疫情中各国存在较大的恢复差，中国的快速恢复，且庞大而完善的制造业供应能力，吃到一波外贸红利，经济快速增长正是得益于大量的海外出口订单。但如今，随着美欧发达国家疫情控制、疫苗接种率的提升，经济社会恢复正常，订单开始回流，对中国的外贸需求将出现明显的下降，近几个月的经济数据显示，全球制造业PMI景气走强的同时，中国新出口订单明显回落。\n\n在这个背景下，中国经济下行压力加大已成各方共识，货币重新偏向宽松，正是为了提前对冲这种影响。\n但过去10年，中美平均利差为133BP，去年9月中美利差为235BP，而现在只有155个BP，从这个角度看，宽松的空间已经大大缩减，一旦美国开始收水，货币政策的弹性空间就会变得狭窄很多。\n\n如今，中美货币政策的错配，又引发市场新的担忧，我们还有多大腾挪调配的空间？\n不过，昨日央行货币政策司司长孙国峰发表观点，他认为关于美联储货币政策转向的讨论对中国货币政策、金融市场的影响较小。\n这个底气从何而来？\n2\n十年货币独立性追求，成真了吗？\n我们不妨回顾一下过去20年发生的事情。\n2001加入世贸之后，中国和美国经济相互依存度加深，一切貌似都朝着美好的方向发展，中国GDP增速连年超过10%，成了名副其实的世界工厂，美国也得以继续玩金融，玩地产。\n但是，2008年，一切戛然而止。\n美国爆发了严重的金融危机，并且迅速席卷全球，中国也深受其害，急冲冲启动“四万亿”的救市计划。由此引发的，是中美双方合作关系的“裂痕”，其实双方都在反思，过去8年到底出了什么问题。\n美国认为中国加入世贸后，自己因为更肆无忌惮地移走自家的制造业，实体经济的空虚，导致虚拟经济，尤其是金融的过度膨胀，是危机的根源，所以奥巴马才喊出制造业回归的旗号。\n而中国，态度则更加微妙。美国过分依赖美元地位、债务扩张等方式发展经济，决定了美元的周期波动会比较剧烈，但美国能够利用全球去对冲美元的波动，其他国家则没有这个实力，尤其是深度跟美国绑定的国家，货币政策只能被动跟随，在美元扩张时日子过得不错，但是美元收缩时，常常伴随着剧烈的经济下行。金融危机前，中国享受了多年的世贸红利，并演变为引以为傲的“出口导向型经济”，经济危机来临，欧美需求快速下滑，外贸重挫，伴随而来的是大量出口制造业倒闭，失业人口迅速膨胀，正是这种体现。\n中国这样体型庞大、人口众多的国家，稳定比什么都重要。\n所以，在稳住经济形势之后，中国也开始了一系列的调整，其中最重要的一条，就是走自己的路，说得再直白一点，就是想办法从过度绑定美国的前车之鉴中抽身。\n至于具体的做法，一带一路算一个，基建+地产算一个，由出口依赖转向刺激内需也算一个，还有货币政策的调整。\n2009年，中国开始尝试跟周边一些国家做对外贸易上，直接使用人民结算，推动人民币的国际使用量迅速增加。2009年，人民币的外贸结算量只有几十亿元，2015年，首次突破10万亿元。\n2015年，“811汇改”，人民币从单一盯住美元，改为选择若干种主要货币，赋予相应的权重，组成一个货币篮子，同时，以市场供求为基础，参考一篮子货币计算人民币多边汇率指数的变化，维护人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基础稳定，形成有管理的浮动汇率制。\n简而言之，就是从“单锚”转向了“多锚”。\n在这个过程中，中国付出了不少代价，如“811汇改”后，人民币汇率快速贬值，加上外汇管制上的漏洞，无数企业利用这种漏洞，不断地套汇输出海外，中国损失了9000亿美元外汇储备。\n\n但总体上，收效还是很大的，起码，中国在货币政策的选择上，逐渐体现出了自主的独立性。这可能就是孙司长所言的底气。\n3\n中美货币的错配，带来什么？\n2015年下半年，美联储进入加息周期，新兴经济体几乎全军覆没，部分国家更是格外惨烈，巴西、南非和土耳其货币均贬至纪录低位，巴西 GDP 创史上最大降幅。\n由于“811”汇改抢占先机、主动防御，人民币兑美元汇率的贬值幅度在新兴市场中居于低位，避免了系统性风险的爆发。在货币政策上，中国也表现出了比以往更多的独立性。2008年之前，中美欧货币政策趋于同步；金融危机爆发后，中国央行的节奏脱离美欧的步伐，收放水都领先一步。\n如美联储从2015年12月到2018年12月，美联储共同加息9次，联邦基金利率加至2.25%-2.50%。而此时的中国，却在降息，2015年3月1日、5月11日、6月28日、8月26日，一年期贷款基准利率下调均下调0.25个百分点，由5.6%将至4.6%，一年期存款基准利率也多次下调0.25个百分点，至1.75%；其他各档次贷款及存款基准利率、个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应调整。\n2020年的新冠疫情，美联储再次大放水，但中美两国的经济周期和货币政策再次出现错配。\n\n两次的配错，并非刻意追求，更多的是中国出于自身的实际情况做出的决策，如2015年需要解决地方债务到期问题、房地产高库存问题，2020年则是通过快速的疫情防控，用出口红利代替了纯粹依靠货币刺激的老路。这次降准，也颇有2015年时的意思。\n不过，这种独立性并不等于完全不顾美联储，毕竟全球经济的火车头还是美国，恰恰是我们想在美联储和自身国情中取平衡。当然，中国接下来需要面对的是，如果美联储因为通胀压力大幅提前收紧流动性的节奏，人民币贬值压力和资本外流等问题上，该如何应对。\n下半年或许比我们预期要艰难许多，对外，面临出口缩减风险，货币方面又需要担心美联储货币拐点带来的压力，流动性相对宽松的窗口有限；对内，投资动力不足，寄与厚望的消费拉动的内循环经济成效还不够显著，一旦资金面收紧，很多中小微企业又会面临去年那样需求与资金面紧缺的局面。\n内外压力联合作用下，接下来央行对货币政策比较可能采取的操作可能不是放松流动性，或加入明显收紧行列，而更可能是总量控制，结构调整，定向引导，严控监管资金空转，真正把流动性引导至真正应该去的地方，比如中小微，民生经济，创新科技、绿色经济等方面。\n国家现在对提振国内企业活力、民众消费经济的目标很明确，动能也很强烈。由此，我们也可以想象得到，但凡对这个目标实现构成影响的阻碍，都会继续被压制和清理，比如炒房、反垄断、教育、医疗等等。\n但无论哪一种情况，对于资本市场面来说，可能都不会是一个很乐观的局面。\n4\n结语\n股价这个东西，长期看行业，中期看基本面，短期看流动性。\n去年3月到现在，我们经历了一波典型的从“经济向好，货币宽松”到“经济向好，货币收紧”的过程，大A也从普涨转变为分化抱团。\n下图第三象限所发生的事情--分化正在发生，如果接下来的货币真的向紧，那么第四象限--哀鸿遍野的资本市场也大概率会重演，只是程度有多大的问题。\n\n做投资，我们要不吝以最差的预期决定去留，于无声处听惊雷。\n至于那些上半年没能赚到钱的投资者，时间和机会可能并不多了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9,"CYB":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"UCmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113920371,"gmtCreate":1622591438593,"gmtModify":1704186788913,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news for the world","listText":"Good news for the world","text":"Good news for the world","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/113920371","repostId":"1147781211","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191146063,"gmtCreate":1620866245552,"gmtModify":1704349470553,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When most people&nbsp;fear, Some will be more greedy?","listText":"When most people&nbsp;fear, Some will be more greedy?","text":"When most people fear, Some will be more greedy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191146063","repostId":"2135584610","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135584610","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1620850937,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2135584610?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 04:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street ends with broad sell-off on spiking inflation fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135584610","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Indexes down: Dow 1.99%, S&P 2.14%, Nasdaq 2.67%. NEW YORK, May 12  - Wall Street closed lower on Wednesday with the S&P suffering its biggest $one$-day percentage drop since February, as inflation data fueled concerns over whether interest rate hikes from the Fed could happen sooner than anticipated.All three major U.S. stock indexes ended the session deep in the red following the Labor Department's April consumer prices report, which showed the biggest rise in nearly 12 years.The report was ","content":"<p>* U.S. consumer prices jump most since June 2009</p><p>* Megacap growth stocks weigh heaviest</p><p>* Energy shares gain as crude climbs</p><p>* Indexes down: Dow 1.99%, S&amp;P 2.14%, Nasdaq 2.67%</p><p>NEW YORK, May 12 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed lower on Wednesday with the S&amp;P suffering its biggest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-day percentage drop since February, as inflation data fueled concerns over whether interest rate hikes from the Fed could happen sooner than anticipated.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes ended the session deep in the red following the Labor Department's April consumer prices report, which showed the biggest rise in nearly 12 years.</p><p>The report was hotly anticipated by market participants who have grown increasingly worried over whether current price jumps will defy the U.S. Federal Reserve's reassurances by morphing into long-term inflation.</p><p>But pent-up demand from consumers flush with stimulus and savings is colliding with a supply drought, sending commodity prices spiking, while a labor shortage drives wages higher.</p><p>\"The topic on everyone's mind is obviously inflation,\" said Matthew Keator, managing partner in the Keator Group, a wealth management firm in Lenox, Massachusetts. \"It's something the (Fed) has been looking for and they're finally getting their wish.\"</p><p>\"The question is how long will its fires run hot before starting to simmer?\"</p><p>That concern is shared by Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital in London.</p><p>\"Going forward, the big question is just how long can the Fed maintain its dovish stance in opposition to the markets,\" Cole said. \"Particularly if companies begin raising wages to encourage unemployed labor back into the workforce, in turn driving a large hole in the Fed’s transitory inflation argument.\"</p><p>Core consumer prices <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPI.UK\">$(CPI.UK)$</a>, which exclude volatile food and energy items, grew at 3% year-on-year, shooting above the central bank's average annual 2% inflation growth target.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Averagefell 681.5 points, or 1.99%, to 33,587.66, the S&amp;P 500    lost 89.06 points, or 2.14%, to 4,063.04 and the Nasdaq Composite    dropped 357.75 points, or 2.67%, to 13,031.68.</p><p>Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, 10 closed in negative territory, with consumer discretionary    down most.</p><p>Energy&nbsp;was the sole gainer, advancing 0.1%, boosted by rising crude prices.</p><p>Market-leading mega-caps, including Amazon.com Inc, Apple Inc, Alphabet In, Microsoft Corp&nbsp;and Tesla Inc, fell between 2% and 3% as investors shied away from what many feel are stretched valuations.</p><p>\"The CPI number being stronger than expected has led to further weakness in tech stocks,\" said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles. \"Tech investors are concerned that higher rates are going to lead to multiple compression and less attractive valuations for tech names in a higher rate environment.\"</p><p>The CBOE Volatility index   , a gauge of market anxiety, close at 27.64, its highest level since March 4.</p><p>Online dating platform Bumble Inc    gained in after-hours trading after posting quarterly results.</p><p>First-quarter earnings season is on the wane, with 456 constituents of the S&amp;P 500 having reported. Of those, 86.8% have beaten consensus estimates, according to Refinitiv IBES.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 6.05-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.84-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 118 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.82 billion shares, compared with the 10.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><b><i>Financial&nbsp;Report</i></b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135975610\" target=\"_blank\">AppLovin stock wobbles following first public quarterly results</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135361078\" target=\"_blank\">Wish stock plunges after earnings, is more than half off the IPO price</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135610373\" target=\"_blank\">Poshmark Q1 sales rise 42%, but stock tanks after hours</a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street ends with broad sell-off on spiking inflation fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street ends with broad sell-off on spiking inflation fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-13 04:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>* U.S. consumer prices jump most since June 2009</p><p>* Megacap growth stocks weigh heaviest</p><p>* Energy shares gain as crude climbs</p><p>* Indexes down: Dow 1.99%, S&amp;P 2.14%, Nasdaq 2.67%</p><p>NEW YORK, May 12 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed lower on Wednesday with the S&amp;P suffering its biggest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-day percentage drop since February, as inflation data fueled concerns over whether interest rate hikes from the Fed could happen sooner than anticipated.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes ended the session deep in the red following the Labor Department's April consumer prices report, which showed the biggest rise in nearly 12 years.</p><p>The report was hotly anticipated by market participants who have grown increasingly worried over whether current price jumps will defy the U.S. Federal Reserve's reassurances by morphing into long-term inflation.</p><p>But pent-up demand from consumers flush with stimulus and savings is colliding with a supply drought, sending commodity prices spiking, while a labor shortage drives wages higher.</p><p>\"The topic on everyone's mind is obviously inflation,\" said Matthew Keator, managing partner in the Keator Group, a wealth management firm in Lenox, Massachusetts. \"It's something the (Fed) has been looking for and they're finally getting their wish.\"</p><p>\"The question is how long will its fires run hot before starting to simmer?\"</p><p>That concern is shared by Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital in London.</p><p>\"Going forward, the big question is just how long can the Fed maintain its dovish stance in opposition to the markets,\" Cole said. \"Particularly if companies begin raising wages to encourage unemployed labor back into the workforce, in turn driving a large hole in the Fed’s transitory inflation argument.\"</p><p>Core consumer prices <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPI.UK\">$(CPI.UK)$</a>, which exclude volatile food and energy items, grew at 3% year-on-year, shooting above the central bank's average annual 2% inflation growth target.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Averagefell 681.5 points, or 1.99%, to 33,587.66, the S&amp;P 500    lost 89.06 points, or 2.14%, to 4,063.04 and the Nasdaq Composite    dropped 357.75 points, or 2.67%, to 13,031.68.</p><p>Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, 10 closed in negative territory, with consumer discretionary    down most.</p><p>Energy&nbsp;was the sole gainer, advancing 0.1%, boosted by rising crude prices.</p><p>Market-leading mega-caps, including Amazon.com Inc, Apple Inc, Alphabet In, Microsoft Corp&nbsp;and Tesla Inc, fell between 2% and 3% as investors shied away from what many feel are stretched valuations.</p><p>\"The CPI number being stronger than expected has led to further weakness in tech stocks,\" said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles. \"Tech investors are concerned that higher rates are going to lead to multiple compression and less attractive valuations for tech names in a higher rate environment.\"</p><p>The CBOE Volatility index   , a gauge of market anxiety, close at 27.64, its highest level since March 4.</p><p>Online dating platform Bumble Inc    gained in after-hours trading after posting quarterly results.</p><p>First-quarter earnings season is on the wane, with 456 constituents of the S&amp;P 500 having reported. Of those, 86.8% have beaten consensus estimates, according to Refinitiv IBES.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 6.05-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.84-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 118 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.82 billion shares, compared with the 10.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><b><i>Financial&nbsp;Report</i></b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135975610\" target=\"_blank\">AppLovin stock wobbles following first public quarterly results</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135361078\" target=\"_blank\">Wish stock plunges after earnings, is more than half off the IPO price</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135610373\" target=\"_blank\">Poshmark Q1 sales rise 42%, but stock tanks after hours</a></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135584610","content_text":"* U.S. consumer prices jump most since June 2009* Megacap growth stocks weigh heaviest* Energy shares gain as crude climbs* Indexes down: Dow 1.99%, S&P 2.14%, Nasdaq 2.67%NEW YORK, May 12 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed lower on Wednesday with the S&P suffering its biggest one-day percentage drop since February, as inflation data fueled concerns over whether interest rate hikes from the Fed could happen sooner than anticipated.All three major U.S. stock indexes ended the session deep in the red following the Labor Department's April consumer prices report, which showed the biggest rise in nearly 12 years.The report was hotly anticipated by market participants who have grown increasingly worried over whether current price jumps will defy the U.S. Federal Reserve's reassurances by morphing into long-term inflation.But pent-up demand from consumers flush with stimulus and savings is colliding with a supply drought, sending commodity prices spiking, while a labor shortage drives wages higher.\"The topic on everyone's mind is obviously inflation,\" said Matthew Keator, managing partner in the Keator Group, a wealth management firm in Lenox, Massachusetts. \"It's something the (Fed) has been looking for and they're finally getting their wish.\"\"The question is how long will its fires run hot before starting to simmer?\"That concern is shared by Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital in London.\"Going forward, the big question is just how long can the Fed maintain its dovish stance in opposition to the markets,\" Cole said. \"Particularly if companies begin raising wages to encourage unemployed labor back into the workforce, in turn driving a large hole in the Fed’s transitory inflation argument.\"Core consumer prices $(CPI.UK)$, which exclude volatile food and energy items, grew at 3% year-on-year, shooting above the central bank's average annual 2% inflation growth target.The Dow Jones Industrial Averagefell 681.5 points, or 1.99%, to 33,587.66, the S&P 500    lost 89.06 points, or 2.14%, to 4,063.04 and the Nasdaq Composite    dropped 357.75 points, or 2.67%, to 13,031.68.Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, 10 closed in negative territory, with consumer discretionary    down most.Energy was the sole gainer, advancing 0.1%, boosted by rising crude prices.Market-leading mega-caps, including Amazon.com Inc, Apple Inc, Alphabet In, Microsoft Corp and Tesla Inc, fell between 2% and 3% as investors shied away from what many feel are stretched valuations.\"The CPI number being stronger than expected has led to further weakness in tech stocks,\" said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles. \"Tech investors are concerned that higher rates are going to lead to multiple compression and less attractive valuations for tech names in a higher rate environment.\"The CBOE Volatility index   , a gauge of market anxiety, close at 27.64, its highest level since March 4.Online dating platform Bumble Inc    gained in after-hours trading after posting quarterly results.First-quarter earnings season is on the wane, with 456 constituents of the S&P 500 having reported. Of those, 86.8% have beaten consensus estimates, according to Refinitiv IBES.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 6.05-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.84-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 118 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.82 billion shares, compared with the 10.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.Financial ReportAppLovin stock wobbles following first public quarterly resultsWish stock plunges after earnings, is more than half off the IPO pricePoshmark Q1 sales rise 42%, but stock tanks after hours","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9099274169,"gmtCreate":1643378396872,"gmtModify":1676533813218,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099274169","repostId":"1162884536","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162884536","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643375469,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162884536?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-28 21:11","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The Year of the Ox market is over! Positive factors converge, A-shares can be expected after the holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162884536","media":"上海证券报","summary":"今天是牛年A股的最后一个交易日。截至收盘，上证指数跌0.97%，深圳成指跌0.53%，创业板指涨0.08%。回顾整个一月行情，三大股指震荡回落，成长风格跌幅靠前。综合来看，热门股估值较高、增量资金不及","content":"<p><div>Today is the last trading day of A shares in the Year of the Ox. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.53%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.08%. Looking back at the entire January market, the three major stock indexes fluctuated and fell back, with the growth style leading the decline. On the whole, the high valuation of popular stocks, lower-than-expected incremental funds, and the transmission of overseas risk factors are all regarded as the reasons for the market decline. However, at the present point in time, institutions generally believe that the above risks have been fully digested, and at the same time, more positive factors are converging, and the A-share \"market bottom\" is just around the corner. After sorting out, the recent positive changes in the A-share market can roughly...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/BsNs3iAGVx7BS6rfdzZlsw\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Year of the Ox market is over! Positive factors converge, A-shares can be expected after the holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Year of the Ox market is over! Positive factors converge, A-shares can be expected after the holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-28 21:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Today is the last trading day of A shares in the Year of the Ox. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.53%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.08%. Looking back at the entire January market, the three major stock indexes fluctuated and fell back, with the growth style leading the decline. On the whole, the high valuation of popular stocks, lower-than-expected incremental funds, and the transmission of overseas risk factors are all regarded as the reasons for the market decline. However, at the present point in time, institutions generally believe that the above risks have been fully digested, and at the same time, more positive factors are converging, and the A-share \"market bottom\" is just around the corner. After sorting out, the recent positive changes in the A-share market can roughly...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/BsNs3iAGVx7BS6rfdzZlsw\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/BsNs3iAGVx7BS6rfdzZlsw\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/BsNs3iAGVx7BS6rfdzZlsw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162884536","content_text":"今天是牛年A股的最后一个交易日。截至收盘，上证指数跌0.97%，深圳成指跌0.53%，创业板指涨0.08%。回顾整个一月行情，三大股指震荡回落，成长风格跌幅靠前。综合来看，热门股估值较高、增量资金不及预期、海外风险因素传导等，均被视作引发市场回落的原因。然而，站在当下时点，机构普遍认为上述风险已被充分消化，同时更多的积极因素正在汇聚，A股“市场底”已近在眼前。经过梳理，近期A股市场的积极变化大致可归纳为基本面向好、资金面复苏、海外风险缓和三个方面。“稳增长”政策渐次落地核心资产业绩稳健增长回顾本周A股市场，部分权重股已经率先展露企稳势头。首先，在“稳字当头、稳中求进”的总基调下，工信部、人民银行、商务部等多个部门近期透露了2022年的政策思路和发力点。各地政府也纷纷明确今年“稳增长”政策组合拳的力度和重点发力方向，“稳增长”政策有望渐次落地。在此背景下，“稳增长”主线成为资金关注的焦点。一方面，传统基建链、地产链上市公司股价走势强劲，如千亿市值龙头中国建筑1月股价逆势上涨4%，万科A、保利发展等年初以来均收获上涨。另一方面，“双碳”目标下的新能源仍是政策扶持的高速赛道，以宁德时代为代表的新能源核心资产近期股价显著复苏。今日，宁德时代股价触底回升涨超3%。昨夜披露的业绩预告显示，宁德时代2021年度预计实现净利润140亿元至165亿元，同比大增150.75%至195.52%。其中，宁德时代去年第四季度净利润几乎追平前三季度总和，产业景气度凸显。中信证券秦培景策略团队认为，A股市场短期调整幅度已偏离了政策支撑下的基本面趋势，政策将再度引导资金凝聚共识。货币政策发力后，其他接力政策正在形成合力。另外，地方两会表明，各地以投资稳经济的趋势明显。中信证券预计，随着投资者对“稳增长”政策的信心不断强化，“稳增长”主线共识将不断提高，市场的信心以及情绪也将获得提振。基金发行边际改善A股市场吸引力依旧明显业内普遍认为，开年资金面的不及预期，是造成市场表现低迷的直接原因。其中，公募基金的发行节奏问题最为受到关注。根据兴业证券统计的数据，2022年前两个交易周（截至1月14日），偏股型基金仅累计发行274亿份，远低于2020年、2021年的同期水平。但这一现象近期出现边际改善。数据显示，1月17日至25日，偏股基金新发619亿份，年初以来累计发行892亿份，基本回到正常水平，为市场引来活水。与此同时，近期基金自购意愿与自购规模也显著增加。2021年12月，偏股基金自购规模达5.23亿元，创2015年7月以来新高。本周，十余家头部公募陆续发布自购计划。显然，从基金管理人的角度来说，当前市场也已处于底部区域。除了内地机构纷纷“真金白银”看好市场前景外，外资流入A股的趋势同样没有放缓。尽管受到美债利率上升的不利因素扰动，但北向资金开年以来仍然呈现净流入，年初至今累计净买入额达167.73亿元。另有数据显示，2022年前三周，中国股市的外资日均净流入额达到4.13亿美元，我国稳健积极的调控政策和较小的通胀压力持续为海外投资者注入信心。国际投行高盛日前发布报告，认为中国资本市场开放、改革势头强劲，使得A股市场对国际投资者而言更具投资价值，且更加可及。2021年创纪录的北向资金流入和全球共同基金高配A股在一定程度上反映了这一点。“A股市场规模庞大、流动性强、持续成长但国际投资者配置不足。我们认为A股对全球股票投资者而言是个不容忽视的战略性投资资产类别。2022年，我们仍建议高配A股。”高盛强调。海外风险逐渐缓和A股市场料将“以我为主”自去年年末以来，海外风险因素持续积聚，包括美联储激进加息预期、美长债利率陡升、海外地缘关系紧张、美股等外盘大幅下跌等。但随着时间推移及相关风险事件落地，机构普遍表示A股将重回“以我为主”的状态。中信建投首席策略分析师陈果表示，外部因素对A股的影响相对间接。日前美联储议息会议在加息缩表的时点和幅度上并没有超出市场预期，市场对此也已有相当程度反应。市场预期逐步稳定的背景下，短期中国对美出口和人民币汇率仍然坚挺。“因此我认为此次美联储议息会议落地之后，未来一个阶段A股市场不应再视外部因素为主要矛盾。”陈果认为。兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东同样表示，海外市场动荡不会对A股构成大风险，A股后续更多将“以我为主”。在他看来，2022年我国政策环境进入“稳经济”阶段，投资时钟将逐步走向复苏，人民币对美元汇率将保持稳定。所以，2022年A股具备更好的配置性价比。国泰君安宏观与策略团队日前联合发布报告，坚定表示“乐观看待A股节后行情”。国泰君安认为，当前市场正对海外流动性预期变化逐步定价，年前海外流动性预期负面影响正被加速消化，同时年后地产信用风险亦将逐步落地，分母端负面因素加速收敛。近期投资者短期风险偏好已处较低水平，继续向下空间有限。此外从日历效应来看，亦能观察到历年春节后市场的表现要明显好于春节前。综合来看，春节后A股市场有望逐步回温。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090256205,"gmtCreate":1643206367290,"gmtModify":1676533784985,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575949053778392","idStr":"3575949053778392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090256205","repostId":"1147161020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147161020","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643203287,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147161020?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-26 21:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"China Evergrande: The company plans to launch a preliminary restructuring plan in the next 6 months","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147161020","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月26日，在今日晚间召开的投资人会议上，中国恒大执行董事肖恩表示，中国恒大董事会及风险化解委员会及管理团队，正共同制定全面、细致、有效的计划，研究各种潜在方案，计划于未来6个月内推出初步重组方案。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 26, at the investor meeting held this evening,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>Executive Director Sean said that China Evergrande's board of directors, risk mitigation committee and management team are jointly formulating a comprehensive, detailed and effective plan, studying various potential plans, and planning to launch a preliminary restructuring plan in the next six months.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Evergrande: The company plans to launch a preliminary restructuring plan in the next 6 months\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-26 21:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 26, at the investor meeting held this evening,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>Executive Director Sean said that China Evergrande's board of directors, risk mitigation committee and management team are jointly formulating a comprehensive, detailed and effective plan, studying various potential plans, and planning to launch a preliminary restructuring plan in the next six months.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147161020","content_text":"1月26日，在今日晚间召开的投资人会议上，中国恒大执行董事肖恩表示，中国恒大董事会及风险化解委员会及管理团队，正共同制定全面、细致、有效的计划，研究各种潜在方案，计划于未来6个月内推出初步重组方案。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}