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Chongwei168
2023-01-07
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
Chongwei168
2023-01-06
$苹果(AAPL)$
Chongwei168
2023-01-03
$小米集团-W(01810)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-31
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-30
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-29
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-28
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-26
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-25
$苹果(AAPL)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-22
$富途控股(FUTU)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-21
$台积电(TSM)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-20
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-19
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-18
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-17
$富途控股(FUTU)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-16
$苹果(AAPL)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-15
$台积电(TSM)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-14
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
Chongwei168
2022-12-13
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$富途控股(FUTU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928154747","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912862894,"gmtCreate":1664801076418,"gmtModify":1676537510159,"author":{"id":"3576277699879024","authorId":"3576277699879024","name":"Chongwei168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d07f1a3bcd3b91095ba1ec80b944d7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576277699879024","authorIdStr":"3576277699879024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912862894","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085780337,"gmtCreate":1650765910938,"gmtModify":1676534788713,"author":{"id":"3576277699879024","authorId":"3576277699879024","name":"Chongwei168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d07f1a3bcd3b91095ba1ec80b944d7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576277699879024","authorIdStr":"3576277699879024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085780337","repostId":"1115965208","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115965208","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650764935,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115965208?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-24 09:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Western Macro: Fed Policy Anchor and A-share Market Bottom","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115965208","media":"静观金融","summary":"为何说沃尔克时代大幅升息并非是货币独立的体现？1）沃尔克之所以能够大幅升息对抗高通胀是因为该做法迎合了政治诉求。70-80年代四任美国总统任期支持率与通胀的负相关特征极其明显。高通胀形势下，福特总统未","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Why is it said that the sharp interest rate hike in the Volcker era is not a manifestation of monetary independence?</b></p><p><b>1) Volcker was able to raise interest rates sharply to fight high inflation because it catered to political demands.</b>The negative correlation between the approval rate and inflation of the four US presidents in the 1970s and 1980s is extremely obvious. Under high inflation, President Ford failed to *, 1979<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>The president's approval rate also dropped below 30%. In order to reverse the trend,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>The president named Paul Volcker as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Unfortunately, Volcker was approaching the US election when he took office, and his hawkish approach caused the US economy to fall into recession in 1980, so it failed to help Carter reverse the defeat. For Reagan, although Volcker was nominated by his predecessor, he still met his political commitment to suppress high inflation.</p><p><b>2) Is suppressing high inflation Volcker's only policy goal? The Federal Reserve also takes into account the economy and employment.</b>After Volcker took office, the Federal Reserve interrupted rate hike and cut interest rates briefly from April to July 1980. During this period, the real GDP growth rate of the United States turned negative year-on-year and the unemployment rate accelerated. The Federal Reserve also cut interest rates during the U.S. economic recession in 1982. In other words, even in the era of high inflation, the Fed will take into account economic growth and employment while suppressing high inflation.</p><p><b>Will the long-term stagflation of the 1970s reappear? The inflection point of U.S. inflation may have appeared. 1）</b>The long-term stagflation in the United States in the 1970s was the result of strong demand, the transfer of manufacturing industry, and the resonance of supply shocks, which is difficult to reproduce now.<b>2）</b>The current round of inflation in the United States may have peaked (close to) in March.</p><p><b>The switching of the Fed's monetary policy anchor in the Powell era: \"fiscal\" before September 2021; September 2021 to the present is \"high inflation\"; Sometime during the year (expected from the end of Q2 to Q3), it may turn to hedging \"US stock market decline + economic slowdown\".</b></p><p><b>1) The Fed's policy anchor before September 2021 is fiscal.</b>Before September last year, the Federal Reserve always stated that high inflation was temporary and would not last because the policy anchor at that time was fiscal. On March 11, 2021, the Biden administration implemented the third round of post-epidemic fiscal transfer payment policies. In the following months, the United States maintained a high fiscal deficit level, and the Federal Reserve was unable to Taper and rate hike. Under fiscal constraints, the Fed cannot acknowledge the persistence of high inflation.</p><p><b>2) The switch of the Fed's policy anchor in September 2021: fiscal → high inflation.</b>In the middle and late Q3 of 2021, the pressure on U.S. fiscal bond issuance has eased. At the same time, as inflation rises, President Biden's approval rate has plummeted. This has caused the Fed's monetary policy anchor to shift from helping the Treasury reduce the cost of debt spending to suppressing inflation.</p><p><b>3) Since inflation is about to peak, why do you still need 50BP in rate hike in May?</b>This just shows that the Federal Reserve does not have much room for rate hike, and it cannot raise interest rates by 50BP in a single interest rate meeting unless inflation peaks. After inflation indicators such as the U.S. CPI are released in April-May and the fact that inflation has cooled is proved, the Federal Reserve can not only affirm itself, but also ease tight monetary pressure again.</p><p><b>4) Reiterate that the Fed's rate hike cycle is likely to stop within the year.</b>Once the economy deteriorates and there is a risk of recession or U.S. stocks plummet, inflation is no longer the main contradiction of the Fed's monetary policy. Looking forward, on the one hand, the U.S. economy will slow down in the second half of the year and the risk of economic recession next year is higher; On the other hand, the current risk premium of U.S. stocks has turned negative, and the pressure of adjustment continues to intensify. Furthermore, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike within the year.</p><p><b>Current: Fed accelerates tightening; RMB exchange rate depreciation; A shares are looking for the bottom of the market.</b>On the same day that the RMB exchange rate suddenly accelerated its depreciation, U.S. stocks fell sharply. The two seemingly unrelated types of assets reflect the same macro logic: the sudden epidemic in China and the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve.<b>If the RMB exchange rate depreciates further in the next 1-2 months, and U.S. stocks accelerate their decline and induce liquidity shocks after the official shrinking balance sheet of the FOMC Federal Reserve in May, it means that the Federal Reserve is expected to end its rate hike early and monetary policy will be marginally loosened. Once this is the case, the bottom of the A-share market will gradually approach.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Why is it said that the sharp interest rate hike in the Volcker era is not a manifestation of monetary independence?</b></p><p><b>(1) The reason why Volcker was able to raise interest rates sharply to fight high inflation is because this approach catered to political demands</b></p><p>Many market participants believe that the Volcker era curbed high inflation by raising interest rates sharply because of the more independent monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. However, we believe that the reason why Volcker raised the Federal Funds rate from about 10% to 20% in the early days of his tenure (1979-1980), and then briefly lowered the benchmark interest rate from May to August 1980, he raised the benchmark interest rate twice to about 22% again in 1981 because of \"political correctness\". The reason is simple. The chairman of the Federal Reserve is nominated by the president.</p><p>As shown in Figure 2, the negative correlation between the term support rate and inflation of the four U.S. presidents in the 1970s and 1980s is extremely obvious. Not only is it normal to open higher and move lower, but as long as the term inflation is high, their support rate is bound to fall off a cliff. Even the Watergate scandal seems to have hit Nixon's approval rating less than inflation. Under the situation of high inflation, President Ford failed to *, and President Carter's approval rate dropped below 30% in 1979. In order to reverse the decline of term support rate, President Carter delivered the famous speech \"Crisis of Confidence\" on July 15th, 1979, and then replaced all 13 cabinet members and appointed Paul Volcker as the chairman of the Federal Reserve. In other words, Volcker was ordered to take over the Fed in order to suppress high inflation and boost the credibility of the government.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1d3666476d64ca778c9f8441af576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb382c78f60f93df9023fdebb8d2c64\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Unfortunately, Carter didn't have much time. When he began to campaign for the general election in early 1980, inflation in the United States was still rising, which made his support rate sluggish again. In the 1980 U.S. election, Reagan promised to curb high inflation and won a big victory. The Federal Reserve led by Volcker continued to make substantial rate hike after Reagan took office, which was a symbol of Reagan's fulfillment of his campaign promise. Although Volcker was nominated by Carter, when Volcker took office, he was approaching the US election and his hawkish approach caused the US economy to fall into recession in 1980, so he failed to help Carter reverse the defeat. For Reagan, although Volcker was nominated by his predecessor, he still met his political commitment to suppress high inflation. Volcker's tight monetary policy also led to the U.S. economic recession in 1982 and caused Reagan's support rate to plummet. However, in 1983, the U.S. economy had stabilized and rebounded and inflation dropped to a low level, and Reagan immediately regained public support.</p><p><b>(2) Is suppressing high inflation Volcker's only policy goal? The Fed also takes into account the economy and employment</b></p><p>After Volcker took office, the Federal Reserve interrupted its rate hike from April to July 1980 and adopted a temporary interest rate cut. Combined with Figure 3-6, it can be seen that during the Fed's interest rate cut, the year-on-year growth rate of real GDP in the United States turned negative and the unemployment rate accelerated. When the economy picked up and the unemployment rate dropped, the Federal Reserve restarted its rate hike. The Federal Reserve also cut interest rates during the U.S. economic recession in 1982. In other words, even in the era of high inflation, the Fed will take into account economic growth and employment while suppressing high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/804c75df17ea8b944f487c1ccb73fb8c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91cec001581b7decb53a046cc59c175f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dec7349376fd42edcd265e9fa950814\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499be0b343d81e9e9321b62e57d99dee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Will the long-term stagflation of the 1970s reappear? The inflection point of US inflation may have appeared</b></p><p><b>The long-term stagflation in the United States in the 1970s was the result of strong demand, the transfer of manufacturing industry, and the resonance of supply shocks, which is difficult to reproduce now.</b>First of all, the newborns born in the baby boom period from 1970 to 1980 were transformed into the \"demographic dividend\" of the United States. The rise of these young people stimulated consumption and real estate demand in the United States. In addition, from the late 1960s to the early 1970s, the middle class in the United States accounted for more than 60% (now it is less than 50%), which further boosted American consumption. However, high costs led to a large-scale transfer of American manufacturing in the 1970s. Coupled with the supply shocks caused by the two oil crises and the depreciation of the US dollar, the United States experienced long-term stagflation. At present, the population structure and the proportion of the middle class in the United States are not the same as those in the 1970s. In addition, Biden's emerging industry strategy will also lead to a rebound in the proportion of manufacturing, and the United States does not have the basis for sustained high inflation or even stagflation. For a detailed analysis, please refer to the February 4 report \"U.S. inflation inflection point: early Q1; late Q2\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7a48a1385223cc866508b3e2fb0fa9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. inflation may have peaked (close to) in March.</b>The high inflation in the United States since Q4 last year is mainly driven by three sub-items: energy, used cars and housing. In March, the U.S. CPI reached a new high of 8.5% year-on-year, but the main reason was still the above three points. However, the price increase factor in the CPI in March was concentrated on the energy sub-item. As long as the situation in Russia and Ukraine is stable, this factor will be reversed in April. The month-on-month contribution of the used car sub-item (transportation products, excluding automobile fuel) to the CPI in March has turned negative, indicating that the structural inflation contradiction caused by the epidemic has been significantly alleviated. As the base rises, the year-on-year contribution of used car sub-items to Q2 CPI will also weaken significantly. The year-on-year and month-on-month contribution of residential inflation factors in March did not increase compared with February, indicating that this sub-item is relatively stable. Since the growth rate of U.S. housing prices peaked from May to July last year, the CPI residential sub-item is also expected to fall back at a high level at the end of Q2 this year. Overall, the U.S. CPI may have peaked (close to) in March year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6908ea3d8a76e01c9e477a5c231ec6e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. The switching of the Fed's monetary policy anchor in the Powell era</b></p><p><b>(1) Did the Fed misjudge high inflation?</b></p><p>Before September last year, the Federal Reserve always stated that high inflation was temporary and would not last, so it failed to tighten money in time. The market generally believed that this was a policy mistake made by the Federal Reserve due to misjudging the inflation situation. But we believe that the reason why the Fed denied the persistence of high inflation was because the policy anchor at that time was fiscal. On March 11, 2021, the Biden administration implemented the third round of post-epidemic fiscal transfer payment policies. In the following months, the United States maintained a high fiscal deficit level. The Fed's QE operation after the financial crisis and post-epidemic is a means of monetizing fiscal deficits, with the intention of helping the U.S. Treasury reduce debt expenditure costs through bond purchases. Furthermore, within two quarters just after the third round of fiscal transfer payments was implemented, the Federal Reserve was still unable to Taper, and thus unable to rate hike. An unsolvable problem is not a problem, and the Federal Reserve cannot acknowledge the persistence of high inflation in the context of the inability to tighten money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af96f7d265dd21f6f3317c70bf43a52d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The switch of the Fed's policy anchor in September 2021: fiscal → high inflation</b></p><p>In the middle and late Q3 of 2021, the pressure on U.S. fiscal bond issuance has eased. At the same time, as inflation rises, President Biden's approval rate has plummeted. This has caused the Fed's monetary policy anchor to shift from helping the Treasury reduce the cost of debt spending to suppressing inflation. Based on the above, it can be seen that high inflation has a fatal blow to the president's ruling power. Therefore, reversing the inflation situation after fiscal constraints are lifted has become a top priority for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Against this background, the Federal Reserve started Taper in Q4 last year, made its first rate hike in March this year, and gave forward-looking guidance for a rate hike of 50BP in May and the launch of a shrinking balance sheet. Given that inflation has not yet cooled down, and Biden's approval rating is still at a tenure low, this also makes the Fed continue to signal faster tightening.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe3cc42f798e8fa4c3005237c6e6851\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) Since inflation is about to peak, why do you still need 50BP in rate hike in May?</b></p><p>In his speech on Thursday, Powell praised Volcker for defeating high inflation, showing that the Fed also has the determination and courage to fight inflation. In addition, Powell also gave forward-looking guidance on the Federal Reserve's 50BP rate hike at the FOMC in May. Since U.S. inflation is about to peak, why does the Federal Reserve still have 50BP on the FOMC rate hike in May? We believe that this just shows that the Federal Reserve does not have much room for rate hike, and it cannot raise interest rates by 50BP in a single interest rate meeting unless inflation peaks. Logically, once the Fed starts a single FOMC rate hike of 50BP, as long as inflation does not peak, the Fed must maintain the rhythm of rate hike of 50BP at each interest rate meeting, otherwise it will surrender to high inflation.</p><p>However, as we pointed out in our report \"U.S. Economic Resilience, Resilience and the Possibility of Next Year's Recession\", there is a high probability that the U.S. economy will slow down this year and the real GDP in Q1 and Q3 next year will turn negative at an annualized rate. In addition, the risk premium of U.S. stocks has dropped below the 0 axis. At present, neither the U.S. economy nor the stock market can withstand many rate hike. Therefore, if inflation does not peak, the Federal Reserve will not implement 50BP rate hike boots at a single interest rate meeting. However, if inflation shows signs of peaking, in order to demonstrate its determination to fight inflation, the Federal Reserve will instead take more aggressive rate hike operations. After inflation indicators such as the U.S. CPI are released in April-May and the fact that inflation has cooled is proved, the Federal Reserve can not only affirm itself, but also ease tight monetary pressure again.</p><p><b>(4) Reiterate that the Fed's rate hike cycle is likely to stop within the year</b></p><p>According to experience since the 1980s, the rate hike will end within 3-6 months after the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields are inverted. In early April this year, the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields were inverted, indicating the possibility of the end of the rate hike in Q3. In addition, once the economy deteriorates and there is a risk of recession, inflation is no longer the main contradiction of the Fed's monetary policy. From September 2007 to January 2008 and from September 1989 to November 1990, the inflation center moved upward during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Another commonality of these two phases is that the economy began to slow down and move towards recession. The change in Powell's policy attitude from Q4 to Q1 of 2018 even shows that as long as U.S. stocks adjust significantly, the Federal Reserve will terminate the rate hike. In other words,<b>Once the economy deteriorates and there is a risk of recession or U.S. stocks plummet, inflation will no longer be the main contradiction of the Fed's monetary policy. Looking forward, on the one hand, the U.S. economy will slow down in the second half of the year and the risk of economic recession next year is higher; On the other hand, the current risk premium of U.S. stocks has turned negative, and the pressure of adjustment continues to intensify. Furthermore, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike within the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1198e106624130a8743c67f62f01c2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. The Federal Reserve accelerates tightening, the RMB exchange rate depreciates and the A-share market bottoms</b></p><p>We have always emphasized that for the domestic equity market, the meeting of the Financial Committee on March 16 established the policy bottom; Looking forward, if the domestic epidemic cools down in May and policies to stabilize growth are expected to be implemented simultaneously, the economic bottom in Q2 will also take shape. However, the prospect of a sharp decline in U.S. stocks may restrict the risk appetite of A-shares to a certain extent, so the market bottom may be formally established after the decline in U.S. stocks and the impact of global liquidity.</p><p>We observed that the RMB exchange rate suddenly accelerated its depreciation on April 22, and the three major U.S. stock indexes also fell sharply on the same day. The two seemingly unrelated types of assets reflect the same macro logic: the sudden epidemic in China and the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve. In our report \"Analysis Framework and Prospects of RMB Exchange Rate\" on April 23rd, we pointed out that the US dollar is the β of RMB exchange rate; Exports are α of the RMB exchange rate. Against the background of accelerated tightening of US dollar liquidity, there is a high probability that the US Dollar Index will continue to rise in the next 1-2 months; With the resumption of overseas production and the outbreak of domestic epidemics, the export share in Q2 may fall slightly. Assuming that the US Dollar Index in Q2 are in the range of 100-102 and the Chinese export share is 15%, the RMB exchange rate may fall in the range of 6.8-7.0.</p><p>In addition, the epidemic in China not only intensified the downside risks of the domestic economy, but also constrained the global industrial chain and economic growth. On September 23, 2018, the United States imposed a 25% tariff on imported goods from China, which was the catalyst for the plunge in U.S. stocks in Q4 that year. It can be seen that the economic and trade relations between China and the United States are extremely close. Furthermore, as shown in Figure 11, the current risk premium of U.S. stocks has turned negative. After the FOMC landed 50BP rate hike and shrinking balance sheet boots in May, global liquidity will actually tighten, and U.S. stocks will also be under greater pressure. Coupled with the weakening of the profitability of U.S. stocks in the coming year, the current leverage ratio is relatively high, and then<b>The adjustment range of U.S. stocks this time may be between Q4 of 2018 and Q1 of 2020.</b></p><p><b>If the RMB exchange rate depreciates further in the next 1-2 months, and U.S. stocks accelerate their decline and induce liquidity shocks after the official shrinking balance sheet of the FOMC Federal Reserve in May, it means that the Federal Reserve is expected to end its rate hike early and monetary policy will be marginally loosened. Once this is the case, the bottom of the A-share market will gradually approach.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb69e9bbbc87de0fbd9847bb33638080\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>(1) The global epidemic situation exceeds expectations</p><p>(2) China's policies to stabilize growth exceed expectations</p><p>(3) The Federal Reserve's monetary policy exceeds expectations</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1571618842096","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Western Macro: Fed Policy Anchor and A-share Market Bottom</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWestern Macro: Fed Policy Anchor and A-share Market Bottom\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">静观金融</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-24 09:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Why is it said that the sharp interest rate hike in the Volcker era is not a manifestation of monetary independence?</b></p><p><b>1) Volcker was able to raise interest rates sharply to fight high inflation because it catered to political demands.</b>The negative correlation between the approval rate and inflation of the four US presidents in the 1970s and 1980s is extremely obvious. Under high inflation, President Ford failed to *, 1979<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>The president's approval rate also dropped below 30%. In order to reverse the trend,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>The president named Paul Volcker as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Unfortunately, Volcker was approaching the US election when he took office, and his hawkish approach caused the US economy to fall into recession in 1980, so it failed to help Carter reverse the defeat. For Reagan, although Volcker was nominated by his predecessor, he still met his political commitment to suppress high inflation.</p><p><b>2) Is suppressing high inflation Volcker's only policy goal? The Federal Reserve also takes into account the economy and employment.</b>After Volcker took office, the Federal Reserve interrupted rate hike and cut interest rates briefly from April to July 1980. During this period, the real GDP growth rate of the United States turned negative year-on-year and the unemployment rate accelerated. The Federal Reserve also cut interest rates during the U.S. economic recession in 1982. In other words, even in the era of high inflation, the Fed will take into account economic growth and employment while suppressing high inflation.</p><p><b>Will the long-term stagflation of the 1970s reappear? The inflection point of U.S. inflation may have appeared. 1）</b>The long-term stagflation in the United States in the 1970s was the result of strong demand, the transfer of manufacturing industry, and the resonance of supply shocks, which is difficult to reproduce now.<b>2）</b>The current round of inflation in the United States may have peaked (close to) in March.</p><p><b>The switching of the Fed's monetary policy anchor in the Powell era: \"fiscal\" before September 2021; September 2021 to the present is \"high inflation\"; Sometime during the year (expected from the end of Q2 to Q3), it may turn to hedging \"US stock market decline + economic slowdown\".</b></p><p><b>1) The Fed's policy anchor before September 2021 is fiscal.</b>Before September last year, the Federal Reserve always stated that high inflation was temporary and would not last because the policy anchor at that time was fiscal. On March 11, 2021, the Biden administration implemented the third round of post-epidemic fiscal transfer payment policies. In the following months, the United States maintained a high fiscal deficit level, and the Federal Reserve was unable to Taper and rate hike. Under fiscal constraints, the Fed cannot acknowledge the persistence of high inflation.</p><p><b>2) The switch of the Fed's policy anchor in September 2021: fiscal → high inflation.</b>In the middle and late Q3 of 2021, the pressure on U.S. fiscal bond issuance has eased. At the same time, as inflation rises, President Biden's approval rate has plummeted. This has caused the Fed's monetary policy anchor to shift from helping the Treasury reduce the cost of debt spending to suppressing inflation.</p><p><b>3) Since inflation is about to peak, why do you still need 50BP in rate hike in May?</b>This just shows that the Federal Reserve does not have much room for rate hike, and it cannot raise interest rates by 50BP in a single interest rate meeting unless inflation peaks. After inflation indicators such as the U.S. CPI are released in April-May and the fact that inflation has cooled is proved, the Federal Reserve can not only affirm itself, but also ease tight monetary pressure again.</p><p><b>4) Reiterate that the Fed's rate hike cycle is likely to stop within the year.</b>Once the economy deteriorates and there is a risk of recession or U.S. stocks plummet, inflation is no longer the main contradiction of the Fed's monetary policy. Looking forward, on the one hand, the U.S. economy will slow down in the second half of the year and the risk of economic recession next year is higher; On the other hand, the current risk premium of U.S. stocks has turned negative, and the pressure of adjustment continues to intensify. Furthermore, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike within the year.</p><p><b>Current: Fed accelerates tightening; RMB exchange rate depreciation; A shares are looking for the bottom of the market.</b>On the same day that the RMB exchange rate suddenly accelerated its depreciation, U.S. stocks fell sharply. The two seemingly unrelated types of assets reflect the same macro logic: the sudden epidemic in China and the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve.<b>If the RMB exchange rate depreciates further in the next 1-2 months, and U.S. stocks accelerate their decline and induce liquidity shocks after the official shrinking balance sheet of the FOMC Federal Reserve in May, it means that the Federal Reserve is expected to end its rate hike early and monetary policy will be marginally loosened. Once this is the case, the bottom of the A-share market will gradually approach.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Why is it said that the sharp interest rate hike in the Volcker era is not a manifestation of monetary independence?</b></p><p><b>(1) The reason why Volcker was able to raise interest rates sharply to fight high inflation is because this approach catered to political demands</b></p><p>Many market participants believe that the Volcker era curbed high inflation by raising interest rates sharply because of the more independent monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. However, we believe that the reason why Volcker raised the Federal Funds rate from about 10% to 20% in the early days of his tenure (1979-1980), and then briefly lowered the benchmark interest rate from May to August 1980, he raised the benchmark interest rate twice to about 22% again in 1981 because of \"political correctness\". The reason is simple. The chairman of the Federal Reserve is nominated by the president.</p><p>As shown in Figure 2, the negative correlation between the term support rate and inflation of the four U.S. presidents in the 1970s and 1980s is extremely obvious. Not only is it normal to open higher and move lower, but as long as the term inflation is high, their support rate is bound to fall off a cliff. Even the Watergate scandal seems to have hit Nixon's approval rating less than inflation. Under the situation of high inflation, President Ford failed to *, and President Carter's approval rate dropped below 30% in 1979. In order to reverse the decline of term support rate, President Carter delivered the famous speech \"Crisis of Confidence\" on July 15th, 1979, and then replaced all 13 cabinet members and appointed Paul Volcker as the chairman of the Federal Reserve. In other words, Volcker was ordered to take over the Fed in order to suppress high inflation and boost the credibility of the government.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1d3666476d64ca778c9f8441af576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb382c78f60f93df9023fdebb8d2c64\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Unfortunately, Carter didn't have much time. When he began to campaign for the general election in early 1980, inflation in the United States was still rising, which made his support rate sluggish again. In the 1980 U.S. election, Reagan promised to curb high inflation and won a big victory. The Federal Reserve led by Volcker continued to make substantial rate hike after Reagan took office, which was a symbol of Reagan's fulfillment of his campaign promise. Although Volcker was nominated by Carter, when Volcker took office, he was approaching the US election and his hawkish approach caused the US economy to fall into recession in 1980, so he failed to help Carter reverse the defeat. For Reagan, although Volcker was nominated by his predecessor, he still met his political commitment to suppress high inflation. Volcker's tight monetary policy also led to the U.S. economic recession in 1982 and caused Reagan's support rate to plummet. However, in 1983, the U.S. economy had stabilized and rebounded and inflation dropped to a low level, and Reagan immediately regained public support.</p><p><b>(2) Is suppressing high inflation Volcker's only policy goal? The Fed also takes into account the economy and employment</b></p><p>After Volcker took office, the Federal Reserve interrupted its rate hike from April to July 1980 and adopted a temporary interest rate cut. Combined with Figure 3-6, it can be seen that during the Fed's interest rate cut, the year-on-year growth rate of real GDP in the United States turned negative and the unemployment rate accelerated. When the economy picked up and the unemployment rate dropped, the Federal Reserve restarted its rate hike. The Federal Reserve also cut interest rates during the U.S. economic recession in 1982. In other words, even in the era of high inflation, the Fed will take into account economic growth and employment while suppressing high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/804c75df17ea8b944f487c1ccb73fb8c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91cec001581b7decb53a046cc59c175f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dec7349376fd42edcd265e9fa950814\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499be0b343d81e9e9321b62e57d99dee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Will the long-term stagflation of the 1970s reappear? The inflection point of US inflation may have appeared</b></p><p><b>The long-term stagflation in the United States in the 1970s was the result of strong demand, the transfer of manufacturing industry, and the resonance of supply shocks, which is difficult to reproduce now.</b>First of all, the newborns born in the baby boom period from 1970 to 1980 were transformed into the \"demographic dividend\" of the United States. The rise of these young people stimulated consumption and real estate demand in the United States. In addition, from the late 1960s to the early 1970s, the middle class in the United States accounted for more than 60% (now it is less than 50%), which further boosted American consumption. However, high costs led to a large-scale transfer of American manufacturing in the 1970s. Coupled with the supply shocks caused by the two oil crises and the depreciation of the US dollar, the United States experienced long-term stagflation. At present, the population structure and the proportion of the middle class in the United States are not the same as those in the 1970s. In addition, Biden's emerging industry strategy will also lead to a rebound in the proportion of manufacturing, and the United States does not have the basis for sustained high inflation or even stagflation. For a detailed analysis, please refer to the February 4 report \"U.S. inflation inflection point: early Q1; late Q2\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7a48a1385223cc866508b3e2fb0fa9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. inflation may have peaked (close to) in March.</b>The high inflation in the United States since Q4 last year is mainly driven by three sub-items: energy, used cars and housing. In March, the U.S. CPI reached a new high of 8.5% year-on-year, but the main reason was still the above three points. However, the price increase factor in the CPI in March was concentrated on the energy sub-item. As long as the situation in Russia and Ukraine is stable, this factor will be reversed in April. The month-on-month contribution of the used car sub-item (transportation products, excluding automobile fuel) to the CPI in March has turned negative, indicating that the structural inflation contradiction caused by the epidemic has been significantly alleviated. As the base rises, the year-on-year contribution of used car sub-items to Q2 CPI will also weaken significantly. The year-on-year and month-on-month contribution of residential inflation factors in March did not increase compared with February, indicating that this sub-item is relatively stable. Since the growth rate of U.S. housing prices peaked from May to July last year, the CPI residential sub-item is also expected to fall back at a high level at the end of Q2 this year. Overall, the U.S. CPI may have peaked (close to) in March year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6908ea3d8a76e01c9e477a5c231ec6e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. The switching of the Fed's monetary policy anchor in the Powell era</b></p><p><b>(1) Did the Fed misjudge high inflation?</b></p><p>Before September last year, the Federal Reserve always stated that high inflation was temporary and would not last, so it failed to tighten money in time. The market generally believed that this was a policy mistake made by the Federal Reserve due to misjudging the inflation situation. But we believe that the reason why the Fed denied the persistence of high inflation was because the policy anchor at that time was fiscal. On March 11, 2021, the Biden administration implemented the third round of post-epidemic fiscal transfer payment policies. In the following months, the United States maintained a high fiscal deficit level. The Fed's QE operation after the financial crisis and post-epidemic is a means of monetizing fiscal deficits, with the intention of helping the U.S. Treasury reduce debt expenditure costs through bond purchases. Furthermore, within two quarters just after the third round of fiscal transfer payments was implemented, the Federal Reserve was still unable to Taper, and thus unable to rate hike. An unsolvable problem is not a problem, and the Federal Reserve cannot acknowledge the persistence of high inflation in the context of the inability to tighten money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af96f7d265dd21f6f3317c70bf43a52d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The switch of the Fed's policy anchor in September 2021: fiscal → high inflation</b></p><p>In the middle and late Q3 of 2021, the pressure on U.S. fiscal bond issuance has eased. At the same time, as inflation rises, President Biden's approval rate has plummeted. This has caused the Fed's monetary policy anchor to shift from helping the Treasury reduce the cost of debt spending to suppressing inflation. Based on the above, it can be seen that high inflation has a fatal blow to the president's ruling power. Therefore, reversing the inflation situation after fiscal constraints are lifted has become a top priority for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Against this background, the Federal Reserve started Taper in Q4 last year, made its first rate hike in March this year, and gave forward-looking guidance for a rate hike of 50BP in May and the launch of a shrinking balance sheet. Given that inflation has not yet cooled down, and Biden's approval rating is still at a tenure low, this also makes the Fed continue to signal faster tightening.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe3cc42f798e8fa4c3005237c6e6851\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) Since inflation is about to peak, why do you still need 50BP in rate hike in May?</b></p><p>In his speech on Thursday, Powell praised Volcker for defeating high inflation, showing that the Fed also has the determination and courage to fight inflation. In addition, Powell also gave forward-looking guidance on the Federal Reserve's 50BP rate hike at the FOMC in May. Since U.S. inflation is about to peak, why does the Federal Reserve still have 50BP on the FOMC rate hike in May? We believe that this just shows that the Federal Reserve does not have much room for rate hike, and it cannot raise interest rates by 50BP in a single interest rate meeting unless inflation peaks. Logically, once the Fed starts a single FOMC rate hike of 50BP, as long as inflation does not peak, the Fed must maintain the rhythm of rate hike of 50BP at each interest rate meeting, otherwise it will surrender to high inflation.</p><p>However, as we pointed out in our report \"U.S. Economic Resilience, Resilience and the Possibility of Next Year's Recession\", there is a high probability that the U.S. economy will slow down this year and the real GDP in Q1 and Q3 next year will turn negative at an annualized rate. In addition, the risk premium of U.S. stocks has dropped below the 0 axis. At present, neither the U.S. economy nor the stock market can withstand many rate hike. Therefore, if inflation does not peak, the Federal Reserve will not implement 50BP rate hike boots at a single interest rate meeting. However, if inflation shows signs of peaking, in order to demonstrate its determination to fight inflation, the Federal Reserve will instead take more aggressive rate hike operations. After inflation indicators such as the U.S. CPI are released in April-May and the fact that inflation has cooled is proved, the Federal Reserve can not only affirm itself, but also ease tight monetary pressure again.</p><p><b>(4) Reiterate that the Fed's rate hike cycle is likely to stop within the year</b></p><p>According to experience since the 1980s, the rate hike will end within 3-6 months after the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields are inverted. In early April this year, the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields were inverted, indicating the possibility of the end of the rate hike in Q3. In addition, once the economy deteriorates and there is a risk of recession, inflation is no longer the main contradiction of the Fed's monetary policy. From September 2007 to January 2008 and from September 1989 to November 1990, the inflation center moved upward during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Another commonality of these two phases is that the economy began to slow down and move towards recession. The change in Powell's policy attitude from Q4 to Q1 of 2018 even shows that as long as U.S. stocks adjust significantly, the Federal Reserve will terminate the rate hike. In other words,<b>Once the economy deteriorates and there is a risk of recession or U.S. stocks plummet, inflation will no longer be the main contradiction of the Fed's monetary policy. Looking forward, on the one hand, the U.S. economy will slow down in the second half of the year and the risk of economic recession next year is higher; On the other hand, the current risk premium of U.S. stocks has turned negative, and the pressure of adjustment continues to intensify. Furthermore, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike within the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1198e106624130a8743c67f62f01c2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. The Federal Reserve accelerates tightening, the RMB exchange rate depreciates and the A-share market bottoms</b></p><p>We have always emphasized that for the domestic equity market, the meeting of the Financial Committee on March 16 established the policy bottom; Looking forward, if the domestic epidemic cools down in May and policies to stabilize growth are expected to be implemented simultaneously, the economic bottom in Q2 will also take shape. However, the prospect of a sharp decline in U.S. stocks may restrict the risk appetite of A-shares to a certain extent, so the market bottom may be formally established after the decline in U.S. stocks and the impact of global liquidity.</p><p>We observed that the RMB exchange rate suddenly accelerated its depreciation on April 22, and the three major U.S. stock indexes also fell sharply on the same day. The two seemingly unrelated types of assets reflect the same macro logic: the sudden epidemic in China and the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve. In our report \"Analysis Framework and Prospects of RMB Exchange Rate\" on April 23rd, we pointed out that the US dollar is the β of RMB exchange rate; Exports are α of the RMB exchange rate. Against the background of accelerated tightening of US dollar liquidity, there is a high probability that the US Dollar Index will continue to rise in the next 1-2 months; With the resumption of overseas production and the outbreak of domestic epidemics, the export share in Q2 may fall slightly. Assuming that the US Dollar Index in Q2 are in the range of 100-102 and the Chinese export share is 15%, the RMB exchange rate may fall in the range of 6.8-7.0.</p><p>In addition, the epidemic in China not only intensified the downside risks of the domestic economy, but also constrained the global industrial chain and economic growth. On September 23, 2018, the United States imposed a 25% tariff on imported goods from China, which was the catalyst for the plunge in U.S. stocks in Q4 that year. It can be seen that the economic and trade relations between China and the United States are extremely close. Furthermore, as shown in Figure 11, the current risk premium of U.S. stocks has turned negative. After the FOMC landed 50BP rate hike and shrinking balance sheet boots in May, global liquidity will actually tighten, and U.S. stocks will also be under greater pressure. Coupled with the weakening of the profitability of U.S. stocks in the coming year, the current leverage ratio is relatively high, and then<b>The adjustment range of U.S. stocks this time may be between Q4 of 2018 and Q1 of 2020.</b></p><p><b>If the RMB exchange rate depreciates further in the next 1-2 months, and U.S. stocks accelerate their decline and induce liquidity shocks after the official shrinking balance sheet of the FOMC Federal Reserve in May, it means that the Federal Reserve is expected to end its rate hike early and monetary policy will be marginally loosened. Once this is the case, the bottom of the A-share market will gradually approach.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb69e9bbbc87de0fbd9847bb33638080\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>(1) The global epidemic situation exceeds expectations</p><p>(2) China's policies to stabilize growth exceed expectations</p><p>(3) The Federal Reserve's monetary policy exceeds expectations</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2P_LKrvKO9AJEH5zDEn5xg\">静观金融</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2P_LKrvKO9AJEH5zDEn5xg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115965208","content_text":"为何说沃尔克时代大幅升息并非是货币独立的体现？1）沃尔克之所以能够大幅升息对抗高通胀是因为该做法迎合了政治诉求。70-80年代四任美国总统任期支持率与通胀的负相关特征极其明显。高通胀形势下，福特总统未能连任，1979年卡特总统支持率也降至30%下方。为了扭转颓势，卡特总统任命保罗·沃尔克出任美联储主席。可惜，沃尔克上任之际已经临近美国大选且其鹰派做法使得1980年美国经济衰退，因此未能助力卡特扭转败局。对于里根来说，沃尔克固然由前任提名，但仍然符合其打压高通胀的政治承诺。2）打压高通胀是否沃尔克的唯一政策目标？美联储亦兼顾经济与就业。沃尔克上任后1980年4-7月美联储曾中断加息并且采取了短暂降息的操作，期间美国实际GDP同比增速转负且失业率加速攀升。1982年美国经济衰退期间美联储也采取了降息操作。换言之，即便在高通胀时代，美联储在打压高通胀的同时也会兼顾经济增长和就业。70年代的长期滞胀会否重现？美国通胀拐点或已出现。1）美国70年代长期滞胀是需求强劲、制造业转出、供给冲击共振的结果，当下难以重现。2）美国本轮通胀或已于3月（接近）见顶。鲍威尔时代美联储货币政策锚的切换：2021年9月前是“财政”；2021年9月至今是“高通胀”；年内某时（预计Q2末至Q3）或将转向对冲“美股下挫+经济放缓”。1）2021年9月前美联储的政策锚是财政。去年9月前美联储始终表示高通胀是暂时的、不会持续，是因为彼时的政策锚是财政。2021年3月11日拜登政府实施了第三轮疫后财政转移支付政策。随后数月美国均保持较高的财政赤字水平，进而美联储无法Taper、加息。在财政约束下，美联储无法承认高通胀的持续性。2）2021年9月美联储政策锚的切换：财政→高通胀。2021年Q3中后期美国财政发债压力有所缓解，与此同时随着通胀走高，总统拜登支持率骤降。这令美联储货币政策锚开始由帮助财政部压低债务支出成本转向打压通胀。3）既然通胀即将见顶，为何5月还要加息50BP？这恰恰说明美联储没有太多加息空间，进而通胀不见顶就不能单次议息会议升息50BP。待4-5月美国CPI等通胀指标公布并证明了通胀降温事实后美联储不仅可以自我肯定还可以重新缓和紧货币压力。4）重申美联储加息周期大概率止步于年内。一旦经济转差并存在衰退风险或是美股大跌，通胀因素就不再是美联储货币政策的主要矛盾。往后看，一方面下半年美国经济放缓、明年经济衰退风险较高；另一方面目前美股风险溢价已经转负，调整压力不断加剧。进而，美联储于年内结束加息为大概率。当前：美联储加速紧缩；人民币汇率贬值；A股寻找市场底。人民币汇率突发加速贬值的同一日美股重挫。看似不相关的两类资产背后却在反映相同的宏观逻辑：中国突发疫情与美联储加速紧缩。假若未来1-2个月人民币汇率进一步贬值，5月FOMC美联储正式缩表后美股加速下探并诱发流动性冲击，那么就意味着美联储有望提前结束加息、货币政策将边际转松。一旦如此，A股的市场底也将渐近。正文 一、为何说沃尔克时代大幅升息并非是货币独立的体现？（一）沃尔克之所以能够大幅升息对抗高通胀是因为该做法迎合了政治诉求很多市场人士认为沃尔克时代因美联储货币政策更为独立而通过大幅升息遏制了高通胀。但我们认为当年沃尔克之所以会在其上任初期（1979年-1980年）将联邦基金利率由约10%上调至20%，并在1980年5-8月短暂调降基准利率后于1981年两度将基准利率再次调高至约22%是因为“政治正确”。理由很简单，美联储主席是由总统提名产生的。如图2所示，70-80年代四任美国总统的任期支持率与通胀的负相关特征极其明显，不仅高开低走是常态，只要任期通胀高企其支持率也势必断崖式下滑。甚至于水门事件对尼克松支持率的打击看似都不及通胀。高通胀形势下，福特总统未能连任，1979年卡特总统支持率也降至30%下方。为了扭转任期支持率颓势，1979年7月15日卡特总统曾发表著名演讲《信任危机》，随后将内阁13名成员全部换掉并任命保罗·沃尔克出任美联储主席。换言之，沃尔克临危受命接管联储就是为了打压高通胀提振政府公信力。可惜的是，卡特的时间并不多，1980年初开始为大选造势之际美国通胀仍在攀升令其支持率再度低迷。1980年美国大选里根承诺遏制高通胀并因此大获全胜，而沃尔克带领的美联储在里根上台后继续大幅加息就是里根兑现竞选承诺的象征。尽管沃尔克由卡特提名，但沃尔克上任之际已经临近美国大选且其鹰派做法使得美国在1980年经济衰退，因此未能助力卡特扭转败局。对于里根来说，沃尔克固然由前任提名，但仍然符合其打压高通胀的政治承诺。沃尔克紧货币政策也曾导致1982年美国经济衰退并令此间里根支持率骤降，但1983年美国经济就已企稳回升且通胀降至低位，里根随即重新获得民众支持。（二）打压高通胀是否沃尔克的唯一政策目标？美联储亦兼顾经济与就业沃尔克上任后1980年4-7月美联储曾中断加息并且采取了短暂降息的操作，结合图3-6可知，美联储降息期间美国实际GDP同比增速转负且失业率加速攀升。而当经济回升、失业率回落后，美联储又重新启动加息。1982年美国经济衰退期间美联储也采取了降息操作。换言之，即便在高通胀时代，美联储在打压高通胀的同时也会兼顾经济增长和就业。 二、70年代的长期滞胀会否重现？美国通胀拐点或已出现美国70年代长期滞胀是需求强劲、制造业转出、供给冲击共振的结果，当下难以重现。首先，1970-1980年婴儿潮时期出生的新生儿转化为美国的“人口红利”，这批年轻人的崛起刺激美国了消费与地产需求。此外，60年代末到70年代初美国中产占比超过60%（当下则低于50%），并对美国消费形成了进一步地提振。但高成本导致美国制造业于70年代大规模转出。加上两次石油危机引发的供给冲击，以及美元贬值，美国才出现长期滞胀。当下，美国人口结构及中产占比都不可与70年代同日而语，加上拜登的新兴产业战略也将令制造业占比有所回升，进而美国不具备持续高通胀乃至滞胀的基础。详细分析请见2月4日报告《美国通胀拐点：早则Q1；迟则Q2》。美国通胀或已于3月（接近）见顶。去年Q4以来美国高通胀主要由三个分项驱动：能源、二手车及居住。3月美国CPI同比8.5%再创新高，但主因仍是上述三点。只不过3月CPI中涨价因素集中于能源分项，只要俄乌局势稳定，该因素将在4月逆转。二手车所在分项（运输产品,不含汽车燃料）对3月CPI环比贡献已然转负，表明疫情引发的结构性通胀矛盾已经显著缓解。随着基数抬升，二手车所在分项对Q2的CPI同比贡献也将大幅转弱。居住型通胀因素对3月的同、环比贡献并未较2月上升，表明该分项相对稳定，由于去年5-7月美国房价增速见顶，进而今年Q2末CPI居住分项亦有望高位回落。总体而言，美国CPI同比或已于3月（接近）见顶。三、鲍威尔时代美联储货币政策锚的切换（一）美联储是否误判高通胀？去年9月前美联储始终表示高通胀是暂时的、不会持续，因此未能及时紧货币，市场普遍认为这是联储因误判通胀形势而出现的政策失误。但我们认为之所以美联储否认高通胀的持续性是因为彼时的政策锚是财政。2021年3月11日拜登政府实施了第三轮疫后财政转移支付政策。随后数月美国均保持较高的财政赤字水平。金融危机后以及疫后美联储QE操作就是财政赤字货币化手段，意图是通过购债行为帮助美国财政部压低债务支出成本。进而，在第三轮财政转移支付刚刚落地后的两个季度内美联储依旧无法Taper，进而无法加息。不能解决的问题就不是问题，在无法紧货币的背景下，美联储亦无法承认高通胀的持续性。（二）2021年9月美联储政策锚的切换：财政→高通胀2021年Q3中后期美国财政发债压力有所缓解，与此同时，随着通胀走高，总统拜登支持率骤降。这令美联储货币政策锚开始由帮助财政部压低债务支出成本转向打压通胀。结合前文可知，高通胀对总统执政力存在致命打击，因此在财政约束解除后扭转通胀局势就成为美联储货币政策的当务之急。在此背景下，美联储自去年Q4开始Taper，今年3月首次加息，并给出了5月加息50BP且启动缩表的前瞻指引。鉴于通胀尚未降温，进而拜登支持率仍处于任期低位，这也使得美联储不断释放更快紧缩的信号。（三）既然通胀即将见顶，为何5月还要加息50BP？本周四讲话时鲍威尔称赞沃尔克战胜高通胀，表明美联储亦有决心和勇气对抗通胀。此外，鲍威尔还在讲话中给出了5月FOMC上美联储将加息50BP的前瞻指引。既然美国通胀即将见顶，为何美联储还要在5月FOMC加息50BP？我们认为这恰恰说明美联储没有太多加息空间，进而通胀不见顶就不能单次议息会议升息50BP。逻辑上，一旦美联储开始单次FOMC加息50BP，那么只要通胀不见顶，美联储就必须保持每次议息会议加息50BP的节奏，否则就是对高通胀缴械投降。但正如我们在报告《美国经济韧性、弹性及明年衰退的可能性》中指出的，今年美国经济放缓、明年Q1与Q3实际GDP环比折年率转负为大概率。此外，美股风险溢价已经降至0轴下方。目前美国经济与股市均无法承受过多次加息，因此通胀不见顶美联储就不会在单次议息会议上落地50BP加息靴子，但若通胀有见顶迹象，为了彰显对抗通胀的决心美联储反而会采取更激进的加息操作。待4-5月美国CPI等通胀指标公布并证明了通胀降温事实后美联储不仅可以自我肯定还可以重新缓和紧货币压力。（四）重申美联储加息周期大概率止步于年内根据80年代以来的经验，10年期与2年期美债收益率倒挂后的3-6个月之内都会结束加息。今年4月初10年期与2年期美债收益率曾现倒挂，预示着Q3结束加息的可能性。此外，一旦经济转差并存在衰退风险，通胀因素就不再是美联储货币政策的主要矛盾。2007年9月-2008年1月以及1989年9月至1990年11月美联储降息阶段通胀中枢均在上移，而这两个阶段的另一个共性则是经济开始放缓并走向衰退。2018年Q4-2019年Q1鲍威尔政策态度的转变甚至说明只要美股大幅调整美联储就会终止加息。也就是说，一旦经济转差并存在衰退风险或是美股大跌，通胀因素就不再是美联储货币政策的主要矛盾。往后看，一方面下半年美国经济放缓、明年经济衰退风险较高；另一方面目前美股风险溢价已经转负，调整压力不断加剧。进而，美联储于年内结束加息为大概率。 四、美联储加速紧缩，人民币汇率贬值以及A股的市场底我们一直强调对国内权益市场而言，3月16日金融委会议确立了政策底；往后看，国内疫情若于5月降温、稳增长政策有望同步发力，Q2内经济底亦将成形。但美股重挫前景或将在一定程度上约束A股风险偏好，因此市场底恐将在美股下挫、全球流动性冲击过后正式确立。我们观察到4月22日人民币汇率突发加速贬值，同一日美国三大股指也均现重挫。看似不相关的两类资产背后却在反映相同的宏观逻辑：中国突发疫情与美联储加速紧缩。我们在4月23日报告《人民币汇率分析框架及前景》中指出，美元是人民币汇率的β；出口是人民币汇率的α。在美元流动性加速收紧的背景下未来1-2个月美元指数继续走高或为大概率；海外生产恢复、国内疫情突发，Q2出口份额或小幅回落。假定Q2美元指数在100-102区间，中国出口份额为15%，则人民币汇率就有可能落在6.8-7.0区间。此外，中国疫情不仅令国内经济下行风险加剧，也对全球产业链及经济增长形成掣肘。2018年9月23日美国对华进口商品加征25%的关税就曾是当年Q4美股暴跌的催化剂，可见中美两国之间经贸关系极其紧密。再者，如图11所示，目前美股风险溢价已经转负，5月FOMC落地50BP加息及缩表靴子后，全球流动性将事实收紧，美股也将承受更大压力。加上未来一年美股盈利能力趋弱，当前杠杆率偏高，进而本次美股调整幅度或介于2018年Q4以及2020年Q1之间。假若未来1-2个月人民币汇率进一步贬值，5月FOMC美联储正式缩表后美股加速下探并诱发流动性冲击，那么就意味着美联储有望提前结束加息、货币政策将边际转松。一旦如此，A股的市场底也将渐近。风险提示（一）全球疫情形势超预期（二）中国稳增长政策力度超预期（三）美联储货币政策超预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DXD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921925592,"gmtCreate":1670969147416,"gmtModify":1676538467359,"author":{"id":"3576277699879024","authorId":"3576277699879024","name":"Chongwei168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d07f1a3bcd3b91095ba1ec80b944d7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576277699879024","authorIdStr":"3576277699879024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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