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2022-06-16

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U.S. chip stocks collectively fell, Micron Technology fell more than 5%

2022-06-16

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Dow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears

2022-06-15

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2022-06-15

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The Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?

2022-06-15

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The Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?

2022-06-11

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2022-06-02

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Who's to blame for the recession, Biden or Powell?

2022-05-30

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Pre-market changes | Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell! Didi bucked the trend and rose more than 7%

2022-05-30

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Opening | The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher, Pinduoduo rose more than 7%

2022-05-29

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2022-05-28

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Howard Marks' latest memo: The rhythm of a bull market

2022-05-21

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U.S. Stocks Opened Higher and Went Lower in Morning Trading, Nasdaq Slid Nearly 1%

2022-05-18

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2022-05-18

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Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down

2022-05-10

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2022-05-10

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2022-05-10

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2022-05-09

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Palantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week

2022-05-09

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The selling wave of U.S. stocks is intensifying. Will this data become a turning point in the market?

2022-05-08

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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. chip stocks collectively fell, Micron Technology fell more than 5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. chip stocks collectively fell, Micron Technology fell more than 5%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-16 21:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On June 16, U.S. chip stocks collectively fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Fell nearly 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99096fe68ff55e82b105991d287b1e0e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1a8c5698b6f32ee1637556a15bb35b","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4579":"人工智能","MU":"美光科技","BK4141":"半导体产品"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175075343","content_text":"6月16日，美股芯片股集体走低，美光科技跌超5%，英伟达、AMD、阿斯麦跌超4%，英特尔跌近3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054679887,"gmtCreate":1655388036349,"gmtModify":1676535627987,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054679887","repostId":"1118727036","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118727036","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655386410,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118727036?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-16 21:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118727036","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made in the previous session.</p><p>Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%, or 460 points. S&amp;P 500 futures were down 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 2%. All three futures contracts had earlier been trading in positive territory.</p><p>The 10-year Treasury yield resumed its massive June run on Thursday, reversing higher overnight. The 10-year yield was last around 3.44% after ending May at 2.84%.</p><p>Those moves come after the Federal Reserve implemented its largest interest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by75 basis points, as was widely anticipated.</p><p>“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.</p><p>Stocks took a leg higher Wednesday after Powell said that a 50 or 75 basis point increase “seems most likely”at the next meeting in July, indicating the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation. Powell did caution, however, that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”</p><p>The major averages ended the session higher, with the Dow and S&amp;P 500 both snapping five-day losing streaks. The 30-stock benchmark added about 304 points, or 1%, while the S&amp;P 500 advanced 1.46%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, rising 2.5%.</p><p>However, market sentiment appeared to sour once again Thursday as other central banks around the globe adopted more aggressive policy stances and investors questioned whether the Fed can pull off a soft landing.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank overnight raised rates for the first time in 15 years. The Bank of England was set on Thursday to raise rates for the fifth straight time.</p><p>“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things whether it’s investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense,” Allianz chief investment advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We are exiting that regime and it’s going to be bumpy.”</p><p>Tech shares moved lower in premarket trading following Wednesday’s bounce, with Tesla, PayPal, Nvidia, Amazon and Netflix all down more than 3%.</p><p>“There is an astonishing level of tech selling right now,” wrote CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a tweet Thursday. “It is breathtaking to watch as sellers are sending the best techs down gigantically at 5 a.m.”</p><p>Travel stocks including United, Delta and Carnival also took a leg lower.</p><p>Data out Thursday further indicated a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. Housing starts dropped 14% in May, topping the 2.6% decline expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June came in with a negative 3.3 reading, its first contraction since May 2020</p><p>The major averages entered Thursday’s session down for the week and well below record levels.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 21% and 32% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meantime, is 17% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.</p><p>Rampant inflation, which is at the highest level in 40 years, has weighed on the major averages, as have fears around slowing economic growth and the possibility of a recession.</p><p>Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson warned that the inflation problem won’t be solved overnight.</p><p>“It also raises the risk of a recession because you’re bringing forward rate hikes even faster, and I don’t think it’s going to help the bond market,” he said on CNBC’s“Closing Bell.”</p><p>Economic data out Thursday includes weekly jobless claims numbers, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a 220,000 print. Housing starts will also be released, whileAdobeandKrogerwill report quarterly updates.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-16 21:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made in the previous session.</p><p>Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%, or 460 points. S&amp;P 500 futures were down 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 2%. All three futures contracts had earlier been trading in positive territory.</p><p>The 10-year Treasury yield resumed its massive June run on Thursday, reversing higher overnight. The 10-year yield was last around 3.44% after ending May at 2.84%.</p><p>Those moves come after the Federal Reserve implemented its largest interest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by75 basis points, as was widely anticipated.</p><p>“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.</p><p>Stocks took a leg higher Wednesday after Powell said that a 50 or 75 basis point increase “seems most likely”at the next meeting in July, indicating the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation. Powell did caution, however, that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”</p><p>The major averages ended the session higher, with the Dow and S&amp;P 500 both snapping five-day losing streaks. The 30-stock benchmark added about 304 points, or 1%, while the S&amp;P 500 advanced 1.46%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, rising 2.5%.</p><p>However, market sentiment appeared to sour once again Thursday as other central banks around the globe adopted more aggressive policy stances and investors questioned whether the Fed can pull off a soft landing.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank overnight raised rates for the first time in 15 years. The Bank of England was set on Thursday to raise rates for the fifth straight time.</p><p>“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things whether it’s investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense,” Allianz chief investment advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We are exiting that regime and it’s going to be bumpy.”</p><p>Tech shares moved lower in premarket trading following Wednesday’s bounce, with Tesla, PayPal, Nvidia, Amazon and Netflix all down more than 3%.</p><p>“There is an astonishing level of tech selling right now,” wrote CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a tweet Thursday. “It is breathtaking to watch as sellers are sending the best techs down gigantically at 5 a.m.”</p><p>Travel stocks including United, Delta and Carnival also took a leg lower.</p><p>Data out Thursday further indicated a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. Housing starts dropped 14% in May, topping the 2.6% decline expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June came in with a negative 3.3 reading, its first contraction since May 2020</p><p>The major averages entered Thursday’s session down for the week and well below record levels.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 21% and 32% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meantime, is 17% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.</p><p>Rampant inflation, which is at the highest level in 40 years, has weighed on the major averages, as have fears around slowing economic growth and the possibility of a recession.</p><p>Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson warned that the inflation problem won’t be solved overnight.</p><p>“It also raises the risk of a recession because you’re bringing forward rate hikes even faster, and I don’t think it’s going to help the bond market,” he said on CNBC’s“Closing Bell.”</p><p>Economic data out Thursday includes weekly jobless claims numbers, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a 220,000 print. Housing starts will also be released, whileAdobeandKrogerwill report quarterly updates.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118727036","content_text":"U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made in the previous session.Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%, or 460 points. S&P 500 futures were down 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 2%. All three futures contracts had earlier been trading in positive territory.The 10-year Treasury yield resumed its massive June run on Thursday, reversing higher overnight. The 10-year yield was last around 3.44% after ending May at 2.84%.Those moves come after the Federal Reserve implemented its largest interest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by75 basis points, as was widely anticipated.“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.Stocks took a leg higher Wednesday after Powell said that a 50 or 75 basis point increase “seems most likely”at the next meeting in July, indicating the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation. Powell did caution, however, that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”The major averages ended the session higher, with the Dow and S&P 500 both snapping five-day losing streaks. The 30-stock benchmark added about 304 points, or 1%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.46%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, rising 2.5%.However, market sentiment appeared to sour once again Thursday as other central banks around the globe adopted more aggressive policy stances and investors questioned whether the Fed can pull off a soft landing.The Swiss National Bank overnight raised rates for the first time in 15 years. The Bank of England was set on Thursday to raise rates for the fifth straight time.“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things whether it’s investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense,” Allianz chief investment advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We are exiting that regime and it’s going to be bumpy.”Tech shares moved lower in premarket trading following Wednesday’s bounce, with Tesla, PayPal, Nvidia, Amazon and Netflix all down more than 3%.“There is an astonishing level of tech selling right now,” wrote CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a tweet Thursday. “It is breathtaking to watch as sellers are sending the best techs down gigantically at 5 a.m.”Travel stocks including United, Delta and Carnival also took a leg lower.Data out Thursday further indicated a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. Housing starts dropped 14% in May, topping the 2.6% decline expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June came in with a negative 3.3 reading, its first contraction since May 2020The major averages entered Thursday’s session down for the week and well below record levels.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 21% and 32% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meantime, is 17% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.Rampant inflation, which is at the highest level in 40 years, has weighed on the major averages, as have fears around slowing economic growth and the possibility of a recession.Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson warned that the inflation problem won’t be solved overnight.“It also raises the risk of a recession because you’re bringing forward rate hikes even faster, and I don’t think it’s going to help the bond market,” he said on CNBC’s“Closing Bell.”Economic data out Thursday includes weekly jobless claims numbers, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a 220,000 print. Housing starts will also be released, whileAdobeandKrogerwill report quarterly updates.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055424017,"gmtCreate":1655304467739,"gmtModify":1676535608884,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055424017","repostId":"2243091930","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055425687,"gmtCreate":1655304394149,"gmtModify":1676535608892,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055425687","repostId":"1183345309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183345309","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655275365,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183345309?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-15 14:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183345309","media":"第一财经","summary":"纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员","content":"<p><div>\"Suddenly, there's a consensus,\" said Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange. From 50 basis points to 75 basis points, the Fed's rate hike expectations seem to have changed dramatically overnight, and investors seem to have completed mental construction overnight. \"Suddenly, the market reached a consensus.\" Timothy Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange, explained to China Business News that the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released on the 10th clearly shows that the inflation problem that the American people are most concerned about is still worsening. \"Fed officials must tell consumers...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-15 14:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>\"Suddenly, there's a consensus,\" said Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange. From 50 basis points to 75 basis points, the Fed's rate hike expectations seem to have changed dramatically overnight, and investors seem to have completed mental construction overnight. \"Suddenly, the market reached a consensus.\" Timothy Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange, explained to China Business News that the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released on the 10th clearly shows that the inflation problem that the American people are most concerned about is still worsening. \"Fed officials must tell consumers...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183345309","content_text":"纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员安德森（Timothy Anderson）向第一财经记者解释道，10日出炉的5月消费者价格指数（CPI）和6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数明确显示，美国民众最关心的通胀问题仍在恶化。“联储官员必须向消费者和投资者表态，抗通胀，他们是认真的。”安德森认为，“认真”的表现形式就是扩大加息的幅度。截至第一财经记者发稿时，芝商所利率观察工具（FedWatch Tool）显示，押注15日美联储加息75个基点的概率由前一日的34.6%骤然升至95.8%，而一周前，仅为3.9%。高盛、摩根大通、富国银行、德意志银行、巴克莱和杰夫瑞等多家机构均预测，美联储将在15日后宣布75个基点加息，若预测准确，这将成1994年以来美联储最大幅度的单次加息。6月加息75个基点的概率高达95.8%（图源：芝商所官网）纠错？美联储以往通常尽可能与市场充分沟通，避免市场震荡。在6月4日开始的静默期之前，包括鲍威尔在内的不少美联储官员表示支持本周加息50个基点，并在7月再次加息50个基点。那么，市场为何认为美联储将会“食言”？券商OANDA高级市场分析师莫亚（Edward Moya）对第一财经记者表示，美联储转变态度实则是纠正错误。“一直以来，鲍威尔对通胀存在错判，如果美联储再不积极加息，恐有政策失误的风险。”他称，美联储正试图避免上世纪70年代犯过的错误，75个基点的加息幅度将是向正确的政策方向迈出一步。对冲基金Pershing Square创始人阿克曼（Bill Ackman）则认为，这将是美联储挽回市场信心的机会。他表示，美联储允许通胀失控的现实，令股市和信贷市场对美联储失去信心，他甚至认为，6月、7月及随后的议息会议加息100个基点会是更好的方案。“美联储越早达到终端利率，就能越快开始放松货币政策，市场就能越早实现复苏。”他说。靴子落地后，市场能否筑底？美股正在抢跑美联储，为更激进的加息前景重新定价。隔夜，标普500指数五连阴，继续于熊市区间下探，跌至2021年1月以来的低位，较其1月历史高位跌超22%。上次熊市期间，标普500指数较前高下跌33.9%才开始反弹。另有数据显示，标普500指数熊市平均持续时间超过18个月。美国银行最新月度调查显示，鹰派央行被投资者视为市场面临的最大尾部风险，全球经济衰退是第二大风险，基金经理对全球经济前景的悲观情绪达到历史之最，对滞胀的担忧达到2008年金融危机以来的最高水平。美银首席全球股票策略师哈奈特（Michael Hartnett）在报告中写道，华尔街悲观情绪堪忧。莫亚对第一财经记者表示，即便美联储靴子落地，短期之内华尔街将很难看到任何可能的反弹。安德森则认为，金融市场将欣然接受75个基点的加息，可能不会立刻看到美股反弹，但股市的下行压力应该会得到一定缓解。本周是央行超级周，除了美联储，英格兰银行、日本央行等都将公布利率决议，然而，各国都面临自身的经济挑战，在能源、食品价格飙升，供应链问题加剧等全球问题上越发难以独善其身。荷兰国际集团（ING）宏观研究全球主管布热斯基（Carsten Brzeski）表示：“各大央行好像自己都慌了，市场突然需要接受这个高利率的新时代，因此股市出现大幅调整，也是合理的。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055422209,"gmtCreate":1655304339401,"gmtModify":1676535608843,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055422209","repostId":"1183345309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183345309","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655275365,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183345309?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-15 14:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183345309","media":"第一财经","summary":"纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员","content":"<p><div>\"Suddenly, there's a consensus,\" said Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange. From 50 basis points to 75 basis points, the Fed's rate hike expectations seem to have changed dramatically overnight, and investors seem to have completed mental construction overnight. \"Suddenly, the market reached a consensus.\" Timothy Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange, explained to China Business News that the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released on the 10th clearly shows that the inflation problem that the American people are most concerned about is still worsening. \"Fed officials must tell consumers...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-15 14:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>\"Suddenly, there's a consensus,\" said Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange. From 50 basis points to 75 basis points, the Fed's rate hike expectations seem to have changed dramatically overnight, and investors seem to have completed mental construction overnight. \"Suddenly, the market reached a consensus.\" Timothy Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange, explained to China Business News that the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released on the 10th clearly shows that the inflation problem that the American people are most concerned about is still worsening. \"Fed officials must tell consumers...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183345309","content_text":"纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员安德森（Timothy Anderson）向第一财经记者解释道，10日出炉的5月消费者价格指数（CPI）和6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数明确显示，美国民众最关心的通胀问题仍在恶化。“联储官员必须向消费者和投资者表态，抗通胀，他们是认真的。”安德森认为，“认真”的表现形式就是扩大加息的幅度。截至第一财经记者发稿时，芝商所利率观察工具（FedWatch Tool）显示，押注15日美联储加息75个基点的概率由前一日的34.6%骤然升至95.8%，而一周前，仅为3.9%。高盛、摩根大通、富国银行、德意志银行、巴克莱和杰夫瑞等多家机构均预测，美联储将在15日后宣布75个基点加息，若预测准确，这将成1994年以来美联储最大幅度的单次加息。6月加息75个基点的概率高达95.8%（图源：芝商所官网）纠错？美联储以往通常尽可能与市场充分沟通，避免市场震荡。在6月4日开始的静默期之前，包括鲍威尔在内的不少美联储官员表示支持本周加息50个基点，并在7月再次加息50个基点。那么，市场为何认为美联储将会“食言”？券商OANDA高级市场分析师莫亚（Edward Moya）对第一财经记者表示，美联储转变态度实则是纠正错误。“一直以来，鲍威尔对通胀存在错判，如果美联储再不积极加息，恐有政策失误的风险。”他称，美联储正试图避免上世纪70年代犯过的错误，75个基点的加息幅度将是向正确的政策方向迈出一步。对冲基金Pershing Square创始人阿克曼（Bill Ackman）则认为，这将是美联储挽回市场信心的机会。他表示，美联储允许通胀失控的现实，令股市和信贷市场对美联储失去信心，他甚至认为，6月、7月及随后的议息会议加息100个基点会是更好的方案。“美联储越早达到终端利率，就能越快开始放松货币政策，市场就能越早实现复苏。”他说。靴子落地后，市场能否筑底？美股正在抢跑美联储，为更激进的加息前景重新定价。隔夜，标普500指数五连阴，继续于熊市区间下探，跌至2021年1月以来的低位，较其1月历史高位跌超22%。上次熊市期间，标普500指数较前高下跌33.9%才开始反弹。另有数据显示，标普500指数熊市平均持续时间超过18个月。美国银行最新月度调查显示，鹰派央行被投资者视为市场面临的最大尾部风险，全球经济衰退是第二大风险，基金经理对全球经济前景的悲观情绪达到历史之最，对滞胀的担忧达到2008年金融危机以来的最高水平。美银首席全球股票策略师哈奈特（Michael Hartnett）在报告中写道，华尔街悲观情绪堪忧。莫亚对第一财经记者表示，即便美联储靴子落地，短期之内华尔街将很难看到任何可能的反弹。安德森则认为，金融市场将欣然接受75个基点的加息，可能不会立刻看到美股反弹，但股市的下行压力应该会得到一定缓解。本周是央行超级周，除了美联储，英格兰银行、日本央行等都将公布利率决议，然而，各国都面临自身的经济挑战，在能源、食品价格飙升，供应链问题加剧等全球问题上越发难以独善其身。荷兰国际集团（ING）宏观研究全球主管布热斯基（Carsten Brzeski）表示：“各大央行好像自己都慌了，市场突然需要接受这个高利率的新时代，因此股市出现大幅调整，也是合理的。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056399638,"gmtCreate":1654936400824,"gmtModify":1676535537334,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056399638","repostId":"2242634960","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050695669,"gmtCreate":1654179895751,"gmtModify":1676535407717,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050695669","repostId":"1125287126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125287126","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654165500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125287126?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-02 18:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Who's to blame for the recession, Biden or Powell?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125287126","media":"金十数据","summary":"拜登已将物价快速上涨的责任推给了美联储，但白宫可能还没有为接下来的事情做好准备。当中期选举年遇上高通胀肆虐时，最好的政治举措可能是将矛头推向央行。毕竟，稳定物价是他们重要的工作任务之一。不过，政府领导","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Biden has shifted the blame for the rapid rise in prices to the Fed, but the White House may not be ready for what comes next. When high inflation rages in a mid-election year, the best political move may be to push the finger at the central bank. After all, stabilizing prices is one of their important tasks. Government leaders may find, though, that the price of curbing inflation is a recession. It is unclear whether they are prepared for this outcome.</p><p>With prices in Europe, America and Australia rising at the fastest rate in decades, it is reasonable for central bankers to continue their tasks without political pressure. In theory, at least, central banks should be able to act quickly and not require inter-party haggling like government legislation.</p><p>For the government, this is a win-win situation: they can shirk the responsibility of failure while enjoying the joy of success. On Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden's speech to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell carried a strong sense of authorization. Biden declared:</p><p>\"My plan is to tackle inflation, and it starts with a simple proposition: respect the Fed, respect the independence of the Fed, which I have done now and will continue to do.\" The autonomy of the Fed is all seen as the gold standard-just as previous US President Trump abused Powell and offered to remove him. Even at the best of times, that independence isn't entirely pure, and Fed officials keep an eye on the mood in Congress.</p><p><b>So why does Biden feel the need to emphasize that Powell is free to play? Columnist Daniel Moss pointed out that the reason is that the chairman of the Federal Reserve should recognize the opportunities and dangers implied in the process of free play. The subtext is that you can tighten economic policy as much as you want, but it's your responsibility, and you have to be responsible for it.</b></p><p>Of course, while leaders want inflation to pull back, they also like a strong labor market and hate recessions. Will Biden pay the ultimate price for ordering Powell to act? Moss is skeptical.</p><p>Powell may not want a recession either, but he has become acutely aware that the global economy is going downhill. It is inevitable to compare him with Paul Volcker, who was the chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. Volcker stopped inflation at the expense of a severe recession, and he had unpleasant conversations with Reagan during his administration. In November's midterm elections, the polls are already bad for Democrats. Slowing economic growth and a cooling job market won't help.</p><p>As heroic as Volcker is, he may not be a perfect analogy under the current circumstances. The world in the early 1980s was quite controlled: the Cold War was raging, and half of the world had almost no capital markets. Volcker is hitting inflation with great force as he does so, because inflation has been worsening for at least a decade.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>There's no comparison to what's going on now, wrote global economist Ethan Harris in a recent report:</p><p>\"The last thing the world needs right now is a Volcker-sized policy shock. Volcker, more or less deliberately, created one of the biggest recessions in modern history. This time is different.\" While there's nothing central banks can do about supply chain bottlenecks, the bottlenecks may have peaked and a key measure of inflation could pull back before the end of the year.</p><p>Biden's remarks should also be viewed in the context of Washington's current broader defense. Earlier this week, Biden wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal about how he would curb inflation. The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls report on Friday may be the most politically significant economic report before inflation hits.<b>Senior officials have been cautious in saying that job growth could slow, a situation that Biden described as \"a sign that we are successfully entering the next phase of our recovery.\"</b>Now seems like a good time to set things right. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview with CNN that she mispredicted last year that price increases would be short-lived.</p><p>Yellen, who served as Fed chairman before Powell, is a good example. After the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, central banks around the world were surprised that there was no inflation. In fact, not every optimistic number hides a price increase. This makes policymakers from all central banks focus on promoting the warming of the labor market. They declare to be more inclined to outcomes than predictions.</p><p>The risk today is that if central banks need to wait for a clear and unambiguous sign that inflation is over, they may miss the opportunity to reverse the economy's downward turn. This may prevent them from not cutting interest rates more times in the future. This cycle will keep repeating itself.</p><p><b>The result is that central bank independence will be an attractive way to set the price of a currency because central banks can act quickly if needed.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who's to blame for the recession, Biden or Powell?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho's to blame for the recession, Biden or Powell?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-02 18:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Biden has shifted the blame for the rapid rise in prices to the Fed, but the White House may not be ready for what comes next. When high inflation rages in a mid-election year, the best political move may be to push the finger at the central bank. After all, stabilizing prices is one of their important tasks. Government leaders may find, though, that the price of curbing inflation is a recession. It is unclear whether they are prepared for this outcome.</p><p>With prices in Europe, America and Australia rising at the fastest rate in decades, it is reasonable for central bankers to continue their tasks without political pressure. In theory, at least, central banks should be able to act quickly and not require inter-party haggling like government legislation.</p><p>For the government, this is a win-win situation: they can shirk the responsibility of failure while enjoying the joy of success. On Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden's speech to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell carried a strong sense of authorization. Biden declared:</p><p>\"My plan is to tackle inflation, and it starts with a simple proposition: respect the Fed, respect the independence of the Fed, which I have done now and will continue to do.\" The autonomy of the Fed is all seen as the gold standard-just as previous US President Trump abused Powell and offered to remove him. Even at the best of times, that independence isn't entirely pure, and Fed officials keep an eye on the mood in Congress.</p><p><b>So why does Biden feel the need to emphasize that Powell is free to play? Columnist Daniel Moss pointed out that the reason is that the chairman of the Federal Reserve should recognize the opportunities and dangers implied in the process of free play. The subtext is that you can tighten economic policy as much as you want, but it's your responsibility, and you have to be responsible for it.</b></p><p>Of course, while leaders want inflation to pull back, they also like a strong labor market and hate recessions. Will Biden pay the ultimate price for ordering Powell to act? Moss is skeptical.</p><p>Powell may not want a recession either, but he has become acutely aware that the global economy is going downhill. It is inevitable to compare him with Paul Volcker, who was the chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. Volcker stopped inflation at the expense of a severe recession, and he had unpleasant conversations with Reagan during his administration. In November's midterm elections, the polls are already bad for Democrats. Slowing economic growth and a cooling job market won't help.</p><p>As heroic as Volcker is, he may not be a perfect analogy under the current circumstances. The world in the early 1980s was quite controlled: the Cold War was raging, and half of the world had almost no capital markets. Volcker is hitting inflation with great force as he does so, because inflation has been worsening for at least a decade.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>There's no comparison to what's going on now, wrote global economist Ethan Harris in a recent report:</p><p>\"The last thing the world needs right now is a Volcker-sized policy shock. Volcker, more or less deliberately, created one of the biggest recessions in modern history. This time is different.\" While there's nothing central banks can do about supply chain bottlenecks, the bottlenecks may have peaked and a key measure of inflation could pull back before the end of the year.</p><p>Biden's remarks should also be viewed in the context of Washington's current broader defense. Earlier this week, Biden wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal about how he would curb inflation. The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls report on Friday may be the most politically significant economic report before inflation hits.<b>Senior officials have been cautious in saying that job growth could slow, a situation that Biden described as \"a sign that we are successfully entering the next phase of our recovery.\"</b>Now seems like a good time to set things right. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview with CNN that she mispredicted last year that price increases would be short-lived.</p><p>Yellen, who served as Fed chairman before Powell, is a good example. After the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, central banks around the world were surprised that there was no inflation. In fact, not every optimistic number hides a price increase. This makes policymakers from all central banks focus on promoting the warming of the labor market. They declare to be more inclined to outcomes than predictions.</p><p>The risk today is that if central banks need to wait for a clear and unambiguous sign that inflation is over, they may miss the opportunity to reverse the economy's downward turn. This may prevent them from not cutting interest rates more times in the future. This cycle will keep repeating itself.</p><p><b>The result is that central bank independence will be an attractive way to set the price of a currency because central banks can act quickly if needed.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/95000\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59f80b4f5ca39b50a8c2a9898ba64544","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/95000","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125287126","content_text":"拜登已将物价快速上涨的责任推给了美联储，但白宫可能还没有为接下来的事情做好准备。当中期选举年遇上高通胀肆虐时，最好的政治举措可能是将矛头推向央行。毕竟，稳定物价是他们重要的工作任务之一。不过，政府领导人可能会发现，抑制通胀的代价是经济衰退。目前尚不清楚他们是否准备好应对这一结果。随着欧洲、美洲和澳洲的物价正在以几十年最快的速度上涨，让央行官员们在没有政治压力的情况下继续他们的任务是合理的。至少在理论上，央行应该能够迅速采取行动，不会像政府立法那样需要党派之间的讨价还价。对于政府来说，这是一个双赢的局面：他们可以一边为推卸失败的责任，一边享受成功的喜悦。周二，美国总统拜登对美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话中，就带有一种强烈的授权意味。拜登宣称：“我的计划是解决通货膨胀问题，这始于一个简单的命题：尊重美联储，尊重美联储的独立性，我现在已经这么做了，而且将继续这样做。”美联储的自主权都被视为是黄金标准——就像前任美国总统特朗普辱骂鲍威尔并提出罢免他一样。即使在最好的时候，这种独立性也不是完全纯粹的，美联储官员会密切关注国会的情绪。那么，为什么拜登觉得有必要去强调鲍威尔可以自由发挥呢？专栏作家Daniel Moss指出，原因在于，美联储主席应当会认识到自由发挥过程中所隐含的机遇和危险。潜台词是，你想如何紧缩经济政策都可以，但这是你的责任，你得对它负责。当然，虽然领导人希望通胀回落，但他们也喜欢强劲的劳动力市场，讨厌经济衰退。拜登是否会为因命令鲍威尔采取行动而付出最终代价？Moss对此持怀疑态度。鲍威尔可能也不想要经济衰退，但他已经敏锐地意识到全球经济正在走下坡路。人们不可避免地将他与1979年-1987年担任美联储主席的保罗•沃尔克相提并论。沃尔克以严重的经济衰退为代价阻止了通胀，并且他在里根执政期间也与里根有过令人不快的谈话。在11月的中期选举中，民意调查对于民主党人来说已经很糟糕了。经济增长放缓和就业市场降温并不会对此什么帮助。尽管沃尔克很英勇，但在当前情况下，他可能不是一个完美的类比。1980年代初期的世界相当受控制：冷战进行得很激烈，全球一半地区几乎没有资本市场。沃尔克在他这样做的时候以巨大的力量打击通胀，因为通货膨胀至少已经恶化了十年。美国银行全球经济学家伊桑哈里斯在最近的一份报告中写道，这与现在的情况无法相提并论：“世界现在最不需要的就是沃尔克规模的政策冲击。沃尔克或多或少地故意制造了现代历史上最大的衰退之一。这次不一样。”虽然央行对供应链瓶颈无能为力，但瓶颈可能已经达到顶峰，衡量通胀的一项关键指标可能会在年底前回落。拜登的言论也应该放在华盛顿当前更广泛的防御背景下去看待。本周早些时候，拜登为《华尔街日报》撰写了一篇关于他将如何遏制通胀的专栏文章。即将在周五发布的月度非农就业报告可能是通胀爆发前最具政治意义的经济报告。高级官员一直谨慎地表示，就业增长可能会放缓，而拜登将这种情况描述为“这是我们成功进入复苏的下一阶段的迹象”。现在似乎是纠正错误的好时机。美国财政部长耶伦（Janet Yellen）在接受CNN采访时表示，她去年错误地预测了物价上涨将是短暂的。而在鲍威尔之前担任美联储主席的耶伦则是一个很好的例子。2007-2009年全球金融危机之后，全球央行都因没有出现通胀而感到吃惊。实际上，并非每一个乐观的数字背后都隐藏着价格上涨。这使得从各个央行的政策制定者都专注于推动劳动力市场的升温。他们宣称更倾向于结果，而不是预测。如今的风险是，如果央行们需要等待通胀已经结束的明确和明确迹象，他们可能会错过扭转经济转向下行的机会。这可能会使他们不能不在未来降息更多次数。这种循环将不断重演下去。结果是，央行的独立性将是一种设定货币价格的有吸引力的方式，因为如果有需要，央行可以迅速采取行动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024848384,"gmtCreate":1653863304848,"gmtModify":1676535350865,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024848384","repostId":"1168055084","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168055084","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653638568,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168055084?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-27 16:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market changes | Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell! Didi bucked the trend and rose more than 7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168055084","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月27日，美股三大股指期货小幅下跌，道指期货跌0.09%，纳指期货跌0.26%，标普500指数期货跌0.09%。热门中概股盘前走势分化，哔哩哔哩、RLX科技跌逾3%，阿里巴巴、蔚来、小鹏汽车跌逾1%","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell slightly, with Dow futures falling 0.09%, Nasdaq futures falling 0.26%, and S&P 500 futures falling 0.09%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/853ba25e93031b37e0c67abf795b5359\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The pre-market trend of popular Chinese concept stocks is divergent,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell more than 1%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Soared more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Slightly higher.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>It fell nearly 2% before the market, and the gross profit margin in Q3 fell by 0.99%. The market is worried that the gross profit margin will be under pressure due to inflation.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">Aurora Cannabis Inc</a>It fell more than 13% before the market and will raise approximately US $125 million through an underwriting agreement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>It fell 16% before the market, and its first-quarter performance fell short of expectations. The company significantly lowered its full-year guidance for fiscal year 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>It rose about 10.5% before the market, Q1 revenue and operating profit both hit new highs, and net profit increased by 62% year-on-year to US $1.1 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maiwell Technology</a>It rose nearly 4% before the market, and Q1 revenue increased 74% year-on-year to US $1.45 billion, which was better than market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market changes | Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell! Didi bucked the trend and rose more than 7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market changes | Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell! Didi bucked the trend and rose more than 7%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-27 16:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell slightly, with Dow futures falling 0.09%, Nasdaq futures falling 0.26%, and S&P 500 futures falling 0.09%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/853ba25e93031b37e0c67abf795b5359\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The pre-market trend of popular Chinese concept stocks is divergent,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell more than 1%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Soared more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Slightly higher.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>It fell nearly 2% before the market, and the gross profit margin in Q3 fell by 0.99%. The market is worried that the gross profit margin will be under pressure due to inflation.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">Aurora Cannabis Inc</a>It fell more than 13% before the market and will raise approximately US $125 million through an underwriting agreement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>It fell 16% before the market, and its first-quarter performance fell short of expectations. The company significantly lowered its full-year guidance for fiscal year 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>It rose about 10.5% before the market, Q1 revenue and operating profit both hit new highs, and net profit increased by 62% year-on-year to US $1.1 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maiwell Technology</a>It rose nearly 4% before the market, and Q1 revenue increased 74% year-on-year to US $1.45 billion, which was better than market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","COST":"好市多","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BABA":"阿里巴巴",".DJI":"道琼斯","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","03086":"华夏纳指","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","BK4539":"次新股","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","RLX":"雾芯科技","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BK4531":"中概回港概念","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4526":"热门中概股","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来","BK4022":"陆运"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168055084","content_text":"5月27日，美股三大股指期货小幅下跌，道指期货跌0.09%，纳指期货跌0.26%，标普500指数期货跌0.09%。热门中概股盘前走势分化，哔哩哔哩、RLX科技跌逾3%，阿里巴巴、蔚来、小鹏汽车跌逾1%；滴滴大涨逾7%，拼多多、京东小幅走高。好市多盘前跌近2%，Q3毛利率下降0.99%，市场担忧通胀下毛利率承压。奥罗拉大麻公司盘前跌逾13%，将通过包销协议融资约1.25亿美元。Gap盘前跌16%，一季度业绩不及预期，公司大幅下调2022财年全年指引。戴尔盘前涨约10.5%，Q1营收、运营利润均创新高，净利同比增62%至11亿美元。迈威尔科技盘前涨近4%，Q1营收同比增74%至14.5亿美元，好于市场预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QQQ":0.9,"09626":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"COST":0.9,"RLX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"03086":0.9,"09868":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"BILI":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024848020,"gmtCreate":1653863266160,"gmtModify":1676535350858,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024848020","repostId":"1169637590","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169637590","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653658233,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169637590?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-27 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher, Pinduoduo rose more than 7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169637590","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月27日，美股三大指数集体高开，道琼斯指数开盘上涨66.72点，涨幅0.20%，报32703.91点；标普500指数开盘上涨32.42点，涨幅0.80%，报4090.26点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher. The Dow Jones Index opened up 66.72 points, or 0.20%, to 32,703.91 points; The S&P 500 index opened up 32.42 points, or 0.80%, to 4090.26 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 175.14 points, or 1.49%, to 11,915.79 points.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It rose by more than 7%, and Q1 revenue increased by 7% year-on-year to 23.8 billion yuan, turning losses into profits compared with the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>It rose by more than 15%, and revenue and operating profit in the first quarter both hit new highs.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>Falling more than 11%, the company's first-quarter performance fell short of expectations and significantly lowered its full-year guidance for fiscal year 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maiwell Technology</a>Up 5.54%, Q1 revenue increased 74% year-on-year to US $1.45 billion, better than market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch</a>Rose more than 11%, Q1 recorded revenue of US $515 million, and won after the results<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Maintain an overweight rating.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">Lychee</a>It rose 5.26%, Q1 revenue increased by 4.4% year-on-year to 517 million yuan, and net profit increased by more than 80% month-on-month to 16.418 million yuan.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher, Pinduoduo rose more than 7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher, Pinduoduo rose more than 7%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-27 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher. The Dow Jones Index opened up 66.72 points, or 0.20%, to 32,703.91 points; The S&P 500 index opened up 32.42 points, or 0.80%, to 4090.26 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 175.14 points, or 1.49%, to 11,915.79 points.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It rose by more than 7%, and Q1 revenue increased by 7% year-on-year to 23.8 billion yuan, turning losses into profits compared with the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>It rose by more than 15%, and revenue and operating profit in the first quarter both hit new highs.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>Falling more than 11%, the company's first-quarter performance fell short of expectations and significantly lowered its full-year guidance for fiscal year 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">Maiwell Technology</a>Up 5.54%, Q1 revenue increased 74% year-on-year to US $1.45 billion, better than market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch</a>Rose more than 11%, Q1 recorded revenue of US $515 million, and won after the results<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Maintain an overweight rating.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">Lychee</a>It rose 5.26%, Q1 revenue increased by 4.4% year-on-year to 517 million yuan, and net profit increased by more than 80% month-on-month to 16.418 million yuan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{"BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4501":"段永平概念","PDD":"拼多多","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4558":"双十一","BK4509":"腾讯概念",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169637590","content_text":"5月27日，美股三大指数集体高开，道琼斯指数开盘上涨66.72点，涨幅0.20%，报32703.91点；标普500指数开盘上涨32.42点，涨幅0.80%，报4090.26点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨175.14点，涨幅1.49%，报11915.79点。拼多多涨超7%，Q1营收同比增长7%至238亿元，较上年同期扭亏为盈。戴尔涨超15%，一季度营收、运营利润均创新高。Gap跌超11%，公司一季度业绩不及预期并大幅下调2022财年全年指引。迈威尔科技涨5.54%，Q1营收同比增74%至14.5亿美元，好于市场预期。Farfetch涨超11%，Q1录得营收5.15亿美元，绩后获摩根士丹利维持增持评级。荔枝涨5.26%，Q1营收同比增长4.4%至5.17亿元，净利润环比增长超80%至1641.8万元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GPS":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"PDD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024894305,"gmtCreate":1653836091907,"gmtModify":1676535348985,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024894305","repostId":"1123332477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025651922,"gmtCreate":1653690940966,"gmtModify":1676535325801,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025651922","repostId":"1157934587","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157934587","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1653655854,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157934587?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-27 20:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Howard Marks' latest memo: The rhythm of a bull market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157934587","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在$橡树资本$联合创始人霍华德·马克斯这篇名为《牛市的韵律》的最新备忘录中，对牛市周期规律进行了分析，并指出通过投资者行为可判断出当下所处阶段，在股市崩盘之前趁早离场。马克斯表示，投资者必须知道牛市心理何时占据主导地位，并保持必要的谨慎态度。我先提前声明，本次备忘录并不能预估市场的潜在方向。标普500指数先是在2020年2月19日创下3386点的历史新高，随后在短短34天内重挫三分之一，并在3月23日跌至2237点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Over the past hundred years, the stock market has experienced ups and downs, and has never stopped. Countless cycles have passed through the historical sky like bright meteors.</p><p>Why are there cycles, and why do investors invest countless energy into the ongoing struggle against market volatility? Because their investment psychology is always affecting the direction of the market. As long as humans are involved in investing, we will see them happen again and again.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Co-founder Howard Marks<b>In this latest memo titled \"Bull Market Rhymes\", it analyzes the patterns of bull market cycles, and points out that investors' behavior can judge the current stage and leave the market early before the stock market crashes.</b></p><p>Out of the pursuit of wealth dreams, investors will lack appropriate fear in the bull market frenzy, and the emergence of this frenzy heralds the approaching risk.</p><p>Max said,<b>Investors must know when bull market psychology is dominating and exercise the necessary caution. \"Bull mentality\" is not a commendatory term, it means unwary behavior and tolerance for high risks. Investors should be worried, not encouraged</b>：</p><p>It is risk aversion and fear of loss that keeps markets safe and sane. Marks noted<b>, asset prices depend on fundamentals and how people view those fundamentals</b>。 High returns in a bull market make people more confident that new things, small probability events, and optimistic outcomes will happen. When people are convinced of the value of these things, they tend to come to the conclusion that there are no stocks that are too expensive. At this time, new entrants bought heavily, and the stock market remained high. Caution, selectivity and discipline disappear when they are most needed.</p><p>Max also cited the current stock market as an example:</p><p>On Wall Street today, the news of interest rate cuts pushed the stock market higher, but then the expectation of inflation caused by lower interest rates pushed the stock market lower. Then, people realized that interest rate cuts could stimulate the depressed economy, and this expectation pushed the stock market higher. After that, the stock market eventually fell amid the fear that the overheating economy would lead to another rate hike. Marks bluntly said that he believes in the enduring investment motto, so<b>The greatest investor behavior should be \"where the wise begins and where the fool ends\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1237ed2d4679f28b36508f982605e52f\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The following is the full text of the memorandum:</p><p>Although I use a lot of aphorisms and quotations in my memo, only a few make it to my top list, and one of my favorites is Mark Twain's famous quote:</p><p>History doesn't repeat itself, but it does repeat itself in similar rhymes. It is well documented that Mark Twain said the first four words in 1874, but there is no accurate evidence that he said the latter words.</p><p>There have been a lot of people who have said similar things over the years. In 1965, psychoanalyst Theodor Reik expressed the same view in his article entitled \"Unreachable\". He added a few more words himself, and I think his expression is the best:</p><p>The cycle is repeated, with ups and downs, but the process is basically the same, with little change. Some say that history repeats itself, but that may not be quite accurate, history simply repeats itself in similar rhymes. The past investment events will not repeat themselves, but the main theme of the events does reappear, especially those related to investment behavior, which is exactly what I am studying.</p><p>In the past two years, the cycle written by Reik has experienced ups and downs, which has attracted market attention. What strikes me in particular is the reappearance of the typical style in investment behavior, which will be the theme of this memo.</p><p>Let me state in advance that this memo does not predict the potential direction of the market. As an example, the market's bullish behavior began when it hit the bottom in March 2020, but since then, there have been serious problems both inside the economy (inflation) and outside the economy (Russia-Ukraine conflict), and there have been major corrections. No one, including me, can know how these things together will affect the future.</p><p>My purpose in writing this memo is simply to place recent events in the context of history and discover some implicit lessons from them. This is crucial because we must go back 22 years, back to the bursting of the tech-media-telecom bubble in 2000, to see the beginning of the real bull market and the end of the resulting bear market. Many readers have not experienced the events at that time because they started investing late.</p><p>You may ask \"How were market earnings before the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the pandemic of 2020 caused the market to collapse?\"</p><p>In my opinion, prior to these two crises, the market was rising gradually, not along a parabola. The rise wasn't driven by frenzy, the stock price wasn't pushed to insane heights, and the high stock price wasn't the cause of any of the crises. The 2008-2009 crisis stemmed from the emergence of the real estate market and subprime mortgage securitization, and the 2020 collapse was due to the epidemic in COVID-19 pandemic and the government's shutdown of the economy to control the epidemic.</p><p>For the aforementioned \"real bull market\", my definition of it does not come from the investment encyclopedia website (Investopedia):</p><p><ul><li>The price of an asset or security in a financial market continues to rise for a period of time.</p><p></li><li>The market usually sees a 20% rise after a 20% decline in the stock price.</p><p></li></ul>The first definition is too bland and fails to capture the core sentiment of investors in a bull market. The second definition provides a false precision. A bull market should not be defined by a percentage change in price. For me, it is best described in terms of how it makes people feel, the investor psychology behind it, and the investment behavior caused by it.</p><p>(I started investing before the numerical criteria for bull and bear markets were set, and I think such criteria are meaningless. Does it really matter whether the S&P 500 index is down 19.9% or 20.1%? I still prefer the old-school definition of a bear market-nerve-racking).</p><p><b>01. Excess and correction</b></p><p>My second book is The Cycle Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side. As we all know, I am a student of cycles and a believer in cycles. As an investor over the years, I have gone through several important cycles (and also received education).</p><p>I believe that knowing where you are in the market cycle can tell us what will happen next. But when I finished writing this book two-thirds of the way, I suddenly thought of a question that I had never considered before: Why are there cycles?</p><p>For example, since the S&P 500 was born in 1957, the average annual return rate in these 65 years is slightly higher than 10%. Why can't its return rate be 10% every year? Here, to add to the question I raised in my memo \"The Golden Mean\" in July 2004, why did the S&P 500 index only return between 8% and 12% six times during this period, and why did it perform so far from this 90% of the time?</p><p>After thinking about it for a period of time, I think it can be explained that there is \"excess and correction\" in the market.</p><p>If you compare the stock market to a machine, you want it to function consistently and steadily over time, the idea is reasonable. However, I think the significant influence of investors' psychological state on their decision-making can largely explain the reasons for market volatility.</p><p>When investors start aggressively bullish, they tend to draw the following conclusions.</p><p>First, everything will always go up; Secondly, no matter how much they pay for an asset, others will buy it from them at a higher price (i.e. the \"bigger fool\" theory) because they are highly optimistic about the market:</p><p><ul><li>The stock price will rise faster than the company's profit growth, and the increase will be much higher than the fair value (excess increase).</p><p></li><li>After that, the investment environment began to disappoint, and the stupid move of paying high prices became conspicuous. The stock price would fall to fair value (revision), and then fall further below that price level.</p><p></li><li>A decline in the stock price will further trigger market pessimism, which will cause the stock price to fall far below its own value (excessive decline).</p><p></li><li>Finally, buying at the bottom will help the sluggish stock price rebound to its fair value (revision).</p><p></li></ul>Excessive gains can lead to higher-than-average returns for a period of time, while excessive declines can also lead to lower-than-average returns for a period of time. Of course, there may be other factors at play, but I think, \"excesses and corrections\" can explain most of the situation. During 2020-2021, we saw the stock market go somewhat excessively, and now we see them being corrected.</p><p><b>02. Bull market psychology</b></p><p>In a bull market, a favorable environment will lead the stock price to rise and boost investor confidence, and this investment confidence will induce aggressive operations, which will further trigger the stock price to rise, and then there will be a more optimistic investment mentality and continuous risk-taking operations.</p><p>This rising spiral is the essence of a bull market, and its rising process may seem overwhelming.</p><p>In the early days of the pandemic, we witnessed a typical asset price crash. The S&P 500 index first hit a record high of 3,386 points on February 19, 2020, then fell by one-third in just 34 days, and fell to 2,237 points on March 23. But then, with the joint efforts of various forces, the stock price rose sharply again:</p><p><ul><li>Among them, the Federal Reserve lowered its Federal Funds rate to near zero and announced large-scale economic stimulus measures together with the Ministry of Finance.</p><p></li><li>These actions have convinced investors that state institutions will do whatever it takes to stabilize the economy.</p><p></li><li>Interest rate cuts significantly reduce the expected return on investment and affect its relative attractiveness.</p><p></li><li>These factors combine to force investors to start taking risks that arise in the short term.</p><p></li><li>Then asset prices rose: by the end of August of that year, the S&P 500 had recovered all its lost ground and rose beyond its February high.</p><p></li><li>FAAMG (Facebook<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>), software stocks and other tech stocks rose sharply, driving the market higher.</p><p></li><li>In the end, investors came to the conclusion that they could expect the stock market to continue to rise, which was also in line with their usual mentality in the bull market.</p><p></li></ul>Just like the last point above, the most important thing in bull market psychology is that most people think that the rise in stock prices is a positive signal that indicates the future market, and many people begin to become optimistic. Only a few people will suspect that this kind of market is excessively rising, and its income depends on future expectations, so the rise will not last, and the market will reverse.</p><p>This reminds me of another favorite maxim of mine, one I first learned about 50 years ago, namely \"the three phases of a bull market\":</p><p>The first stage, when some forward-thinking people start betting that a bull market may come;</p><p>Phase 2, when most investors realize that a bull market is happening;</p><p>Phase 3, when everyone thinks the bull market will last forever.</p><p>Interestingly, although under the leadership of the Federal Reserve, the stock market quickly changed from a weak bottom in March 2020 to a prosperous scene in May, half-belief was the most common investor psychology I saw during this period. The question they asked me the most is:</p><p>With such a bad environment, the pandemic is raging and the economy is stagnant, can the stock market still rise? It was hard to find optimists back then. A lot of investors became what my late father-in-law described as \"handcuffed people\": they didn't buy stocks because they wanted to, but they had to because cash returns were low. Once the stock market starts to rise, they will chase higher prices for fear of being left behind.</p><p>Therefore, it seems that the stock market rally stems from the Federal Reserve's manipulation of capital markets, rather than from good results from companies or investor optimism. It wasn't until the end of 2020, after the S&P 500 index rose 67.9% from the bottom in March and rose 16.3% for the year, that investors' psychological state finally caught up with the soaring stock price.</p><p>Bull markets rarely go through the first stage, and the probability of going through the second stage is also very low. Many investors directly changed from deep despair at the end of March of that year to extreme optimism later.</p><p>This is a good reminder for the present moment. Although the main melody melody of some historical events does repeat itself, it is a big mistake to expect history to repeat itself accurately.</p><p><b>03. Reasons for optimism, super stocks and new things</b></p><p>In a frenetic bull market, investors can become hysterical. In extreme cases, their thoughts and actions are divorced from reality. The premise here is that there must be elements that can both stimulate investors' imagination and prevent them from thinking carefully.</p><p>Therefore, it is worth noting that there are always some elements that will appear in a bull market: new developments, new inventions, and reasons to drive stocks up.</p><p>By definition, a bull market is characterized by upward prosperity, multiplication of confidence, credulity, and investors' willingness to pay high prices for assets, all of which have proved to be beyond the limit after the fact. Historical experience shows that it is crucial to keep these characteristics within reasonable limits. For this reason, the rational or emotional reasons that can stimulate the emergence of bull markets come from new things and cannot be explained by historical experience.</p><p>History has fully proven that when the market behaves bullish, stock valuations are pushed up, and investors begin to accept new things without hesitation, the consequences are often very painful.</p><p>Everyone knows (or should know) that the stock market usually falls 20%-50% after a parabolic rise. However, as I learned about \"the willing suspension of disbelief\" in high school English class, the above behavior continues to happen and repeatedly among investors.</p><p>Here's another of my favorite quotes:</p><p>The feeling of ecstasy was, and is, little known. People's memory of financial markets is very short, which leads to the financial crisis being soon forgotten. And when the same or very similar situation happens again, even within a few years, in the eyes of a young and extremely confident new generation, the crisis will be hailed as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">The financial world</a>And major discoveries in the economic fields. Among the industries that human beings dabble in, few industries have such meaningless historical experience as the financial industry. To some extent, historical experience has become a complete part of memories, and for those who can't afford to enjoy the present scene, it has become their original refuge-John Kenneth Galbraith, A Brief History of Financial Rapture, 1990 In the past 30 years, I have shared this sentence with readers many times, because I think it sums up some important points well, but I haven't shared my understanding of it before for the behavior described in it.</p><p>I don't think investors are forgetful. Instead, knowledge of history and proper caution lie on one side of the scale, and the dream of pursuing wealth lies on the other, and the latter always wins. Recollection, caution, realism, and risk aversion will only hinder the dream of getting rich. So for this reason, investors always lack moderate worry when the bull market starts.</p><p>Instead, it is often to find reasons for exceeding historical valuation standards. On October 11, 1987, Anise Wallace<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>This phenomenon is described in an article titled \"Why this market cycle is not different\" published in \". At that time, people held optimistic and positive sentiments, looking for rationality for unusually high stock prices, but Wallace pointed out in the article that this idea was untenable:</p><p>John Templeton, a 74-year-old mutual fund manager, once pointed out that the four most dangerous words in investing are \"this time is different\". When the stock market is ups and downs, investors always use this reason to rationalize their emotion-driven decisions. Over the next year, many investors will likely repeat these four words to defend high stock prices. But they should look at the stock market rise with the attitude of \"I'll pay you back when you have money\" (the check's in the mail makes excuses to delay). No matter what brokers or fund managers say, the bull market won't last forever. As a result, it didn't take a year, and just eight days later, the world suffered a \"Black Monday\", and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6% in a single day.</p><p>Another explanation for the bull market is that investors believe that certain enterprises will have a bright future. This applies to the \"Nifty 50\" growth stocks of the late 1960s; Semiconductor manufacturers in the 80s; And telecom, internet, and e-commerce companies in the late 90s. It is believed that every development is capable of changing the world and, therefore, past business realities do not limit investors' imagination and willingness to invest. They did change the world. Still, the high valuations that were once considered reasonably high did not last.</p><p>In many bull markets, one or more groups I call \"super stocks\", and their rapid rise has made investors increasingly optimistic. Growing optimism has pushed stock prices to highs, which has become a feature of previous market cycles. This positivity and higher valuations are further reflected in the valuations of other securities (or all securities) through relative value comparisons and general improvements in investor sentiment.</p><p>Looking back at the first two years, from 2020 to 2021, FAAMG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google) topped the list of companies that excite investors, with unprecedented market dominance and scale capabilities. The stunning performance of FAAMG in 2020 has attracted investors' attention and supported the general bullish trend.</p><p>By September 2020 (within six months), these stocks had almost doubled from their March lows and were up 61% from the start of the year. It's worth mentioning that these five stocks are heavily weighted in the S&P 500, so their performance led to a good overall rally in the index, but it distracted people from the other 495 underperforming stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb43ec1382ac15f7a9090cf792e1236\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The massive success of FAAMG has created a general positive impact for tech stocks, which have seen a surge in investor demand and, as is the case in the investment space, strong demand has stimulated and increased supply. One barometer worth noting in this context is the approach of unprofitable companies to IPOs.</p><p>Before the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s, IPOs of unprofitable companies were relatively few, surging during the bubble, but the number has since declined again. In the bull market of 2020-2021, unprofitable initial public offerings (IPOs) experienced a big rebound as investors were willing to support the desire of technology companies to scale and the need for biotech companies to spend on drug trials.</p><p>If companies with bright prospects provide momentum for a bull market, emerging things in the market may play a role in fueling the flames, exacerbating its rally. SPAC (backdoor listing) is a typical recent example. Investors provided blank checks for these newly formed companies to carry out acquisition activities and get their funds back with interest after meeting the following two conditions \"if the acquisition is not completed within two years, or if the investor disagrees with the proposed acquisition.\"</p><p>This seems to be a \"steady profit\" (the most dangerous word in the world) buy and sell, with the number of SPACs soaring from 10 in 2013 and 59 in 2019 to 248 in 2020 and 613 in 2021. Some companies make huge profits, while in others investors get their money back with interest and principal. But the lack of suspicion of untested innovation, coupled with the push of bull market psychology, has allowed too many SPACs to be created, whether by competent or incompetent sponsors, who will be paid heavily for completing acquisitions...... any acquisition.</p><p>Today, SPACs that have completed acquisitions and exited since 2020 have an average selling price of $5.25, compared to the offering price of $10.00. This is a good example of how new things are not as reliable as investors think-investors are once again paying the price for \"something that must not happen\".</p><p>Supporters of SPACs believe that these entities are just another way for companies to go public and are not worried about its potential role. I focus on how investors embrace an untested innovation during hot times.</p><p>Another dynamic on the innovation factor is also worth mentioning, which shows how \"new things\" contribute to the bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Robinhood Markets began offering stocks in the years before the pandemic,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>And commission-free trading of cryptocurrencies, etc. After the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, this encouraged people to flock to the stock market and start speculating in stocks, because casinos and sports events stopped gambling business.</p><p></li><li>Millions of people who didn't lose their jobs received generous financial subsidies, which meant many had increased disposable income during the pandemic. Social networking sites like Reddit have turned investment into a \"social activity in isolation at home\".</p><p></li><li>As a result, a large number of novice retail investors flock to the stock market, many of whom lack basic investment experience.</p><p></li><li>Newbies will be thrilled to admire a public figure and claim that \"the stock market only goes up\".</p><p></li><li>As a result, the prices of many technology stocks and \"meme stocks\" (group retail stocks) have soared.</p><p></li></ul>The last emerging thing worth discussing is cryptocurrencies. For example, supporters of Bitcoin cite its multiple uses and its limited supply relative to potential demand. Skeptics, on the other hand, point out that Bitcoin lacks cash flow and intrinsic value to determine a fair price. Whichever side is correct, a Bitcoin satisfies some of the characteristics that benefit from a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Bitcoin is relatively new (although it has been around for 14 years, people have only paid attention to it in the last five years).</p><p></li><li>Bitcoin prices surged dramatically, rising from $5,000 in 2020 to a peak of $68,000 in 2021.</p><p></li><li>According to Galbrait, this is certainly something that previous generations \"couldn't appreciate\".</p><p></li><li>In all these respects, this fits perfectly with Galbrait's description of something \"enthusiastically embraced by a new, young and very confident generation as a great innovation in the field of finance\".</p><p></li><li>Now, Bitcoin is down more than half from its 2021 highs, but thousands of other cryptocurrencies that already exist have fallen even more.</p><p></li></ul>The spectacular performance of FAAMGs, tech stocks, SPACs, group stocks, and cryptocurrencies in 2020 has made this fascination even more frenetic and added to the general optimism among investors. It's hard to imagine a full-blown bull market in the absence of something never before seen or heard of. The belief of \"something new new\" and \"this time is different\" is typical of the recurring bull market theme.</p><p><b>04. Competition to the bottom</b></p><p>Another bull theme in different cycles is the deleterious impact of bull trends on the quality of investor decisions. In short, when calm reason is replaced by burning optimism:</p><p><ul><li>Asset price increases</p><p></li><li>Greed overshadows fear</p><p></li><li>No longer worry about losses, instead of worrying about stepping short</p><p></li><li>Risk aversion and caution fade away</p><p></li></ul>It must be remembered that it is risk aversion and fear of loss that keeps markets safe and sane. These developments usually boost the market, making caution and rational thinking disappear, and making it a dangerous place.</p><p>I explained in my 2007 memo, Race to the Bottom, that when investors and capital providers have too much money in their hands and they are too eager to put it to use, they are too aggressive in bidding for securities and lending opportunities. Fierce bidding depresses expected returns, increases risk, weakens security structures, and reduces fault tolerance rates.</p><p><ul><li>Cautious investors stick to their guns, saying, \"I insist on 8% interest and a strong contract.\"</p><p></li><li>Its rivals responded: \"I accept 7% interest and ask for fewer covenants.\"</p><p></li><li>The most unruly person didn't want to miss this opportunity and said, \"I can accept 6% interest and don't need a covenant.\"</p><p></li></ul>This is the \"race to the bottom\", which is exactly what people often say \"the worst loans come from the best times\". This is something that can't happen when people are distressed by recent losses and fear experiencing more losses. After the Federal Reserve took large-scale measures to deal with the global financial crisis, it ushered in a record economic recovery and stock market rise for more than 10 years, but it was accompanied by:</p><p><ul><li>IPO wave of loss-making companies</p><p></li><li>Record issuance of subordinated securities (high-risk CCC-rated bonds)</p><p></li><li>Companies in high-volatility sectors (technology and software) are issuing heavily, and people tend to avoid these sectors in times of caution</p><p></li><li>Rising Valuation Multiples for M&A and Acquisitions</p><p></li><li>Risk premium continues to fall</p><p></li></ul>Favorable developments also encourage greater use of leverage. Leverage amplifies gains and losses, but in a bull market, investors are convinced that gains are inevitable and ignore the possibility of losses. In this case, few people can find a reason not to borrow, because the interest cost of debt is minimal and can increase the return of success.</p><p>But increasing debt at a high price late in the upward cycle is not the best way to succeed. When things get bad, leverage becomes unfavorable. Investment banks get into trouble when they issue debt at the end of their investment. Debt \"hanging\" on a bank's balance sheet tends to become a \"canary in a coal mine,\" suggesting impending danger.</p><p>Since I believe in the enduring investment motto, it is quite appropriate at this point to quote the motto I think the greatest investor behavior: \"Where the wise begin, the fool ends\". People who buy stocks during the first phase of a bull market, with lower prices due to the prevailing pessimism (such as during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and early COVID-19 pandemic in 2020), have the potential to earn strong returns with minimal risk, with the main prerequisites being money and guts.</p><p>But when the bull market heats up and considerable returns encourage investor optimism, the traits of returning at this time are eagerness, credulity and risk-taking. In the third phase of the bull market, new entrants bought heavily and the stock market remained high. Caution, selectivity and discipline disappear when they are most needed.</p><p>It is particularly noteworthy that investors who are optimistic and are rewarded by their risk tolerance often no longer discern investment opportunities. Not only did investors think that something \"new\" would certainly succeed, but ultimately they concluded that the space had a bright future, so there was no need to draw any further distinctions.</p><p>For the above reasons, \"bull market psychology\" is not a commendatory term. It implies unalerted behavior and a tolerance for high risks, and investors should be worried, not encouraged. As Buffett said, \"The less cautious others are in handling their own affairs, the more cautious we must be in handling our own affairs.\" Investors must know when bull market psychology is dominating and exercise the necessary caution.</p><p><b>05. Pendulum effect</b></p><p>Bull markets don't appear out of nowhere. The winners in every bull market become winners for the simple reason that there are some facts behind their profits. However, the bull market I talked about above tends to inflate the value of stocks and push the stock price to levels that are too high and therefore vulnerable. And, the upward fluctuation doesn't last forever.</p><p>I once wrote in OntheCouch (January 2016): \"In the real world, things usually oscillate back and forth between'pretty good 'and'not too hot.' But in the investment world, people's expectations often change from'hopeful 'to'desperate'\". In the market, overdoing things is one of the key characteristics of investor behavior. During a bull market, investors believe that difficult, unlikely and unprecedented things will definitely work.</p><p>However, in the less prosperous period, good economic news and \"performance exceeding expectations\" failed to stimulate buying, and the rise in stock prices no longer made investors with low positions feel regret. Therefore, we see that people are no longer willing to abandon questioning for the time being, and their mentality quickly turns negative.</p><p>Investors can interpret almost any piece of news, whether it is positive or negative depends on the way it is reported and their mood, which is the key. (The cartoon below, one of my all-time favorites, was published decades ago. Look at the depth of those antennas and TV cabinets, but it's obvious that the captions are relevant to the subject of this moment.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b3a74156c69f713bc1092a9a6544f22\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>\"On Wall Street today, the news of interest rate cuts pushed the stock market higher, but then lower interest rates led to inflation expectations that pushed the stock market lower, and then people realized that interest rate cuts could stimulate a depressed economy, and this expectation pushed the stock market higher. After that, the stock market eventually fell amid the fear that the overheating economy would lead to another rate hike.\"</p><p>Turning this popular saying upside down reflects the process of \"from full of hope to despair\" I mentioned earlier. While there is some truth in supporting the idea that a bull market will happen, when it goes well, investors regard it as a certain deal. However, when some flaws in this view are exposed, people think that it is completely wrong.</p><p>On the happy days (a year ago), tech bulls said, \"You have to buy growth stocks because their earnings are likely to grow in the next few decades.\" But now, after a plunge, we hear instead: \"Investing based on future potential is too risky. You have to hold value stocks because you can determine their present value and price them reasonably.\"</p><p>Similarly, in good times, investors who participated in IPOs of loss-making companies said: \"There's nothing wrong with companies reporting losses, and it's reasonable for them to spend money to scale.\" But the story is different now, with many saying: \"Who invests in unprofitable companies? They just burn money.\"</p><p>Someone who doesn't spend much time watching the market may think that asset prices depend entirely on fundamentals, but that's not the case. Asset prices depend on fundamentals and how people view those fundamentals. As a result, changes in asset prices depend on changes in fundamentals and/or how people perceive changes in those fundamentals.</p><p>Company fundamentals are theoretically subject to so-called \"analysis,\" and possibly even forecasting. Perceptions of fundamentals, on the other hand, are subjective, unaffected by analysis or forecasts, and change more rapidly and drastically.</p><p>Some common sayings also reflect this view:</p><p><ul><li>Balloons deflate much faster than they inflate.</p><p></li><li>Things happen later than you think, but they happen much faster than you think.</p><p></li></ul>As for the latter, in my experience, we often see positive or negative fundamentals happen simultaneously for a period of time without the stock price reacting. But then a tipping point is reached-both fundamentally and psychologically-where all of a sudden is reflected in price, sometimes overreflected.</p><p><b>06. What happens then?</b></p><p>A bull market doesn't treat all industries equally. As I discussed earlier, in a bull market, optimism is most strongly focused on a certain class of stocks, such as \"new things\" or \"super stocks.\" Such stocks rose the most, becoming a symbol of the bull market during this period and attracting further buying. The media is paying the most attention to such stocks, prolonging the whole process. During 2020-2021, FAAMG and other tech stocks are prime examples of this phenomenon.</p><p>The truth is self-evident, but I still want to say that investors who hold a large number of stocks that lead the bull market are doing well. Some money managers are smart enough or lucky enough to focus on these stocks so they achieve the highest returns, optimism prevails, and at the same time, they appear on the front pages of newspapers and cable TV shows. In the past, I have said that our industry is full of people who have a reputation for making the right decisions in a row. And for fund managers who are smart enough or lucky enough to add to the sectors leading the bull market, the famous can double.</p><p>However, stocks that have made the biggest gains in rising years tend to have the biggest losses in falling years. The aphorisms that apply here come from the real world, but that doesn't make them any less relevant: \"Success is Xiao He, and failure is Xiao He\", \"There are ups and downs\" and \"The higher you climb, the harder you fall\":</p><p>The first tech fund grew 157% in 2020, going from obscurity to fame. But it's down 23% in 2021 and another 57% so far in 2022. The $100 invested at the end of 2019 was worth $257 a year later, but today it has fallen to $85. Another less volatile tech fund rose 48% in 2020 but has since fallen 48%. Unfortunately, the 48% upside and the 48% downside do not cancel each other out, in effect, there is a net decline of $22 for every $100 invested. The third tech fund rose a staggering 291% in the first year, but fell 21%, 60% and 61% in the following three years. During those four years, the $100 invested at the beginning was worth just $43 at the end, equating to an 89% drop from an incredible high at the end of the first year. Wait a minute, the current boom/bust period hasn't lasted four years yet. No, I'm quoting results from 1999-2002, when the last tech bubble also burst. I only mention them to remind you that the current performance is a reproduction of the situation. Earlier I mentioned Robinhood, the originator of commission-free trading. It epitomizes digital currency stocks during the 2020-2021 bull market. Robinhood went public at $38/share in July 2021, and the stock price surged to $85 a week later. Shares are today at just $10, down 88% from their highs in less than a year.</p><p>But the average performance of stocks is not really that bad, is it? The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down \"only\" 27.4% in 2022. One feature of this \"bull market\" is that the largest constituents perform best, thus boosting the index. Thinking about what this means for the rest of the constituent stocks, 22% of the Nasdaq's stocks are down at least 50%. (The data here and below are as of May 20)</p><p>Here are some of my random picks of the declines of well-known tech, digital currency, and innovative stocks. Maybe, when some of the stocks here are at their peak, you feel blamed for not getting them:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffeced6fe46e2035410c8d0d198ea4da\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"956\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hypothetically, you still believe that the stock price is determined by a consensus reached by smart investors based on fundamentals. If so, then why are all these stocks falling so hard? Do you really believe that the value of these businesses has evaporated by more than half on average over the past few months? This question raises some other questions that I often think about.</p><p>Bitcoin often moves in the same direction at a time of wild stock market volatility. Is there some fundamental reason behind this that leads to the correlation between the two trends? The same goes for market linkages between countries: when Japanese stocks start off sharply, European and American stocks tend to follow suit. Sometimes, it seems like the US stock market is leading the way while the Japanese stock market is slipping at the same time. Is the connection between the fundamentals of these countries sufficient to cause them to link?</p><p>My answer to all of these questions is usually \"no\". The common denominator is not fundamentals, but psychological factors, and all of these things are similarly affected when the latter changes significantly.</p><p><b>07. Experience</b></p><p>As for investing students, the most important thing is not what happens in a specific time period, but what we can learn from these events. We can learn a lot from the 2020-2021 trends that are consistent with those seen in previous cycles. In a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Optimism is built on things that are done very well.</p><p></li><li>The impact is strongest when the stock price rises from a base that is rather depressed in both psychological and price terms.</p><p></li><li>There is no worry in bull market psychology, and it has a high level of risk tolerance, so it is accompanied by extremely aggressive behavior. Taking risks is rewarded, but the need for hard work is ignored.</p><p></li><li>High returns make people more confident that new things, small probability events, and optimistic outcomes will happen. When people are convinced of the value of these things, they tend to come to the conclusion that there are no stocks that are too expensive.</p><p></li><li>After they (and prices) reach unsustainable levels, these effects eventually cool down.</p><p></li><li>Markets at high levels are vulnerable to external events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p></li><li>The assets that gained the most, and the investors who increased their holdings, often experienced painful reversals.</p><p></li></ul>I have seen this happen many times in my career, and none of them are entirely caused by fundamentals. On the contrary, psychological factors are the main reason, and the way psychology works is unlikely to change. This is why I firmly believe that as long as humans are involved in the investment process, we will see them happen again and again.</p><p>And, note that the wild movements in the market are basically driven by psychological factors, and it is obvious that if possible, market movements can only be predicted when prices are extremely high or extremely low.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Howard Marks' latest memo: The rhythm of a bull market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHoward Marks' latest memo: The rhythm of a bull market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-27 20:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Over the past hundred years, the stock market has experienced ups and downs, and has never stopped. Countless cycles have passed through the historical sky like bright meteors.</p><p>Why are there cycles, and why do investors invest countless energy into the ongoing struggle against market volatility? Because their investment psychology is always affecting the direction of the market. As long as humans are involved in investing, we will see them happen again and again.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Co-founder Howard Marks<b>In this latest memo titled \"Bull Market Rhymes\", it analyzes the patterns of bull market cycles, and points out that investors' behavior can judge the current stage and leave the market early before the stock market crashes.</b></p><p>Out of the pursuit of wealth dreams, investors will lack appropriate fear in the bull market frenzy, and the emergence of this frenzy heralds the approaching risk.</p><p>Max said,<b>Investors must know when bull market psychology is dominating and exercise the necessary caution. \"Bull mentality\" is not a commendatory term, it means unwary behavior and tolerance for high risks. Investors should be worried, not encouraged</b>：</p><p>It is risk aversion and fear of loss that keeps markets safe and sane. Marks noted<b>, asset prices depend on fundamentals and how people view those fundamentals</b>。 High returns in a bull market make people more confident that new things, small probability events, and optimistic outcomes will happen. When people are convinced of the value of these things, they tend to come to the conclusion that there are no stocks that are too expensive. At this time, new entrants bought heavily, and the stock market remained high. Caution, selectivity and discipline disappear when they are most needed.</p><p>Max also cited the current stock market as an example:</p><p>On Wall Street today, the news of interest rate cuts pushed the stock market higher, but then the expectation of inflation caused by lower interest rates pushed the stock market lower. Then, people realized that interest rate cuts could stimulate the depressed economy, and this expectation pushed the stock market higher. After that, the stock market eventually fell amid the fear that the overheating economy would lead to another rate hike. Marks bluntly said that he believes in the enduring investment motto, so<b>The greatest investor behavior should be \"where the wise begins and where the fool ends\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1237ed2d4679f28b36508f982605e52f\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The following is the full text of the memorandum:</p><p>Although I use a lot of aphorisms and quotations in my memo, only a few make it to my top list, and one of my favorites is Mark Twain's famous quote:</p><p>History doesn't repeat itself, but it does repeat itself in similar rhymes. It is well documented that Mark Twain said the first four words in 1874, but there is no accurate evidence that he said the latter words.</p><p>There have been a lot of people who have said similar things over the years. In 1965, psychoanalyst Theodor Reik expressed the same view in his article entitled \"Unreachable\". He added a few more words himself, and I think his expression is the best:</p><p>The cycle is repeated, with ups and downs, but the process is basically the same, with little change. Some say that history repeats itself, but that may not be quite accurate, history simply repeats itself in similar rhymes. The past investment events will not repeat themselves, but the main theme of the events does reappear, especially those related to investment behavior, which is exactly what I am studying.</p><p>In the past two years, the cycle written by Reik has experienced ups and downs, which has attracted market attention. What strikes me in particular is the reappearance of the typical style in investment behavior, which will be the theme of this memo.</p><p>Let me state in advance that this memo does not predict the potential direction of the market. As an example, the market's bullish behavior began when it hit the bottom in March 2020, but since then, there have been serious problems both inside the economy (inflation) and outside the economy (Russia-Ukraine conflict), and there have been major corrections. No one, including me, can know how these things together will affect the future.</p><p>My purpose in writing this memo is simply to place recent events in the context of history and discover some implicit lessons from them. This is crucial because we must go back 22 years, back to the bursting of the tech-media-telecom bubble in 2000, to see the beginning of the real bull market and the end of the resulting bear market. Many readers have not experienced the events at that time because they started investing late.</p><p>You may ask \"How were market earnings before the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the pandemic of 2020 caused the market to collapse?\"</p><p>In my opinion, prior to these two crises, the market was rising gradually, not along a parabola. The rise wasn't driven by frenzy, the stock price wasn't pushed to insane heights, and the high stock price wasn't the cause of any of the crises. The 2008-2009 crisis stemmed from the emergence of the real estate market and subprime mortgage securitization, and the 2020 collapse was due to the epidemic in COVID-19 pandemic and the government's shutdown of the economy to control the epidemic.</p><p>For the aforementioned \"real bull market\", my definition of it does not come from the investment encyclopedia website (Investopedia):</p><p><ul><li>The price of an asset or security in a financial market continues to rise for a period of time.</p><p></li><li>The market usually sees a 20% rise after a 20% decline in the stock price.</p><p></li></ul>The first definition is too bland and fails to capture the core sentiment of investors in a bull market. The second definition provides a false precision. A bull market should not be defined by a percentage change in price. For me, it is best described in terms of how it makes people feel, the investor psychology behind it, and the investment behavior caused by it.</p><p>(I started investing before the numerical criteria for bull and bear markets were set, and I think such criteria are meaningless. Does it really matter whether the S&P 500 index is down 19.9% or 20.1%? I still prefer the old-school definition of a bear market-nerve-racking).</p><p><b>01. Excess and correction</b></p><p>My second book is The Cycle Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side. As we all know, I am a student of cycles and a believer in cycles. As an investor over the years, I have gone through several important cycles (and also received education).</p><p>I believe that knowing where you are in the market cycle can tell us what will happen next. But when I finished writing this book two-thirds of the way, I suddenly thought of a question that I had never considered before: Why are there cycles?</p><p>For example, since the S&P 500 was born in 1957, the average annual return rate in these 65 years is slightly higher than 10%. Why can't its return rate be 10% every year? Here, to add to the question I raised in my memo \"The Golden Mean\" in July 2004, why did the S&P 500 index only return between 8% and 12% six times during this period, and why did it perform so far from this 90% of the time?</p><p>After thinking about it for a period of time, I think it can be explained that there is \"excess and correction\" in the market.</p><p>If you compare the stock market to a machine, you want it to function consistently and steadily over time, the idea is reasonable. However, I think the significant influence of investors' psychological state on their decision-making can largely explain the reasons for market volatility.</p><p>When investors start aggressively bullish, they tend to draw the following conclusions.</p><p>First, everything will always go up; Secondly, no matter how much they pay for an asset, others will buy it from them at a higher price (i.e. the \"bigger fool\" theory) because they are highly optimistic about the market:</p><p><ul><li>The stock price will rise faster than the company's profit growth, and the increase will be much higher than the fair value (excess increase).</p><p></li><li>After that, the investment environment began to disappoint, and the stupid move of paying high prices became conspicuous. The stock price would fall to fair value (revision), and then fall further below that price level.</p><p></li><li>A decline in the stock price will further trigger market pessimism, which will cause the stock price to fall far below its own value (excessive decline).</p><p></li><li>Finally, buying at the bottom will help the sluggish stock price rebound to its fair value (revision).</p><p></li></ul>Excessive gains can lead to higher-than-average returns for a period of time, while excessive declines can also lead to lower-than-average returns for a period of time. Of course, there may be other factors at play, but I think, \"excesses and corrections\" can explain most of the situation. During 2020-2021, we saw the stock market go somewhat excessively, and now we see them being corrected.</p><p><b>02. Bull market psychology</b></p><p>In a bull market, a favorable environment will lead the stock price to rise and boost investor confidence, and this investment confidence will induce aggressive operations, which will further trigger the stock price to rise, and then there will be a more optimistic investment mentality and continuous risk-taking operations.</p><p>This rising spiral is the essence of a bull market, and its rising process may seem overwhelming.</p><p>In the early days of the pandemic, we witnessed a typical asset price crash. The S&P 500 index first hit a record high of 3,386 points on February 19, 2020, then fell by one-third in just 34 days, and fell to 2,237 points on March 23. But then, with the joint efforts of various forces, the stock price rose sharply again:</p><p><ul><li>Among them, the Federal Reserve lowered its Federal Funds rate to near zero and announced large-scale economic stimulus measures together with the Ministry of Finance.</p><p></li><li>These actions have convinced investors that state institutions will do whatever it takes to stabilize the economy.</p><p></li><li>Interest rate cuts significantly reduce the expected return on investment and affect its relative attractiveness.</p><p></li><li>These factors combine to force investors to start taking risks that arise in the short term.</p><p></li><li>Then asset prices rose: by the end of August of that year, the S&P 500 had recovered all its lost ground and rose beyond its February high.</p><p></li><li>FAAMG (Facebook<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>), software stocks and other tech stocks rose sharply, driving the market higher.</p><p></li><li>In the end, investors came to the conclusion that they could expect the stock market to continue to rise, which was also in line with their usual mentality in the bull market.</p><p></li></ul>Just like the last point above, the most important thing in bull market psychology is that most people think that the rise in stock prices is a positive signal that indicates the future market, and many people begin to become optimistic. Only a few people will suspect that this kind of market is excessively rising, and its income depends on future expectations, so the rise will not last, and the market will reverse.</p><p>This reminds me of another favorite maxim of mine, one I first learned about 50 years ago, namely \"the three phases of a bull market\":</p><p>The first stage, when some forward-thinking people start betting that a bull market may come;</p><p>Phase 2, when most investors realize that a bull market is happening;</p><p>Phase 3, when everyone thinks the bull market will last forever.</p><p>Interestingly, although under the leadership of the Federal Reserve, the stock market quickly changed from a weak bottom in March 2020 to a prosperous scene in May, half-belief was the most common investor psychology I saw during this period. The question they asked me the most is:</p><p>With such a bad environment, the pandemic is raging and the economy is stagnant, can the stock market still rise? It was hard to find optimists back then. A lot of investors became what my late father-in-law described as \"handcuffed people\": they didn't buy stocks because they wanted to, but they had to because cash returns were low. Once the stock market starts to rise, they will chase higher prices for fear of being left behind.</p><p>Therefore, it seems that the stock market rally stems from the Federal Reserve's manipulation of capital markets, rather than from good results from companies or investor optimism. It wasn't until the end of 2020, after the S&P 500 index rose 67.9% from the bottom in March and rose 16.3% for the year, that investors' psychological state finally caught up with the soaring stock price.</p><p>Bull markets rarely go through the first stage, and the probability of going through the second stage is also very low. Many investors directly changed from deep despair at the end of March of that year to extreme optimism later.</p><p>This is a good reminder for the present moment. Although the main melody melody of some historical events does repeat itself, it is a big mistake to expect history to repeat itself accurately.</p><p><b>03. Reasons for optimism, super stocks and new things</b></p><p>In a frenetic bull market, investors can become hysterical. In extreme cases, their thoughts and actions are divorced from reality. The premise here is that there must be elements that can both stimulate investors' imagination and prevent them from thinking carefully.</p><p>Therefore, it is worth noting that there are always some elements that will appear in a bull market: new developments, new inventions, and reasons to drive stocks up.</p><p>By definition, a bull market is characterized by upward prosperity, multiplication of confidence, credulity, and investors' willingness to pay high prices for assets, all of which have proved to be beyond the limit after the fact. Historical experience shows that it is crucial to keep these characteristics within reasonable limits. For this reason, the rational or emotional reasons that can stimulate the emergence of bull markets come from new things and cannot be explained by historical experience.</p><p>History has fully proven that when the market behaves bullish, stock valuations are pushed up, and investors begin to accept new things without hesitation, the consequences are often very painful.</p><p>Everyone knows (or should know) that the stock market usually falls 20%-50% after a parabolic rise. However, as I learned about \"the willing suspension of disbelief\" in high school English class, the above behavior continues to happen and repeatedly among investors.</p><p>Here's another of my favorite quotes:</p><p>The feeling of ecstasy was, and is, little known. People's memory of financial markets is very short, which leads to the financial crisis being soon forgotten. And when the same or very similar situation happens again, even within a few years, in the eyes of a young and extremely confident new generation, the crisis will be hailed as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">The financial world</a>And major discoveries in the economic fields. Among the industries that human beings dabble in, few industries have such meaningless historical experience as the financial industry. To some extent, historical experience has become a complete part of memories, and for those who can't afford to enjoy the present scene, it has become their original refuge-John Kenneth Galbraith, A Brief History of Financial Rapture, 1990 In the past 30 years, I have shared this sentence with readers many times, because I think it sums up some important points well, but I haven't shared my understanding of it before for the behavior described in it.</p><p>I don't think investors are forgetful. Instead, knowledge of history and proper caution lie on one side of the scale, and the dream of pursuing wealth lies on the other, and the latter always wins. Recollection, caution, realism, and risk aversion will only hinder the dream of getting rich. So for this reason, investors always lack moderate worry when the bull market starts.</p><p>Instead, it is often to find reasons for exceeding historical valuation standards. On October 11, 1987, Anise Wallace<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>This phenomenon is described in an article titled \"Why this market cycle is not different\" published in \". At that time, people held optimistic and positive sentiments, looking for rationality for unusually high stock prices, but Wallace pointed out in the article that this idea was untenable:</p><p>John Templeton, a 74-year-old mutual fund manager, once pointed out that the four most dangerous words in investing are \"this time is different\". When the stock market is ups and downs, investors always use this reason to rationalize their emotion-driven decisions. Over the next year, many investors will likely repeat these four words to defend high stock prices. But they should look at the stock market rise with the attitude of \"I'll pay you back when you have money\" (the check's in the mail makes excuses to delay). No matter what brokers or fund managers say, the bull market won't last forever. As a result, it didn't take a year, and just eight days later, the world suffered a \"Black Monday\", and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6% in a single day.</p><p>Another explanation for the bull market is that investors believe that certain enterprises will have a bright future. This applies to the \"Nifty 50\" growth stocks of the late 1960s; Semiconductor manufacturers in the 80s; And telecom, internet, and e-commerce companies in the late 90s. It is believed that every development is capable of changing the world and, therefore, past business realities do not limit investors' imagination and willingness to invest. They did change the world. Still, the high valuations that were once considered reasonably high did not last.</p><p>In many bull markets, one or more groups I call \"super stocks\", and their rapid rise has made investors increasingly optimistic. Growing optimism has pushed stock prices to highs, which has become a feature of previous market cycles. This positivity and higher valuations are further reflected in the valuations of other securities (or all securities) through relative value comparisons and general improvements in investor sentiment.</p><p>Looking back at the first two years, from 2020 to 2021, FAAMG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google) topped the list of companies that excite investors, with unprecedented market dominance and scale capabilities. The stunning performance of FAAMG in 2020 has attracted investors' attention and supported the general bullish trend.</p><p>By September 2020 (within six months), these stocks had almost doubled from their March lows and were up 61% from the start of the year. It's worth mentioning that these five stocks are heavily weighted in the S&P 500, so their performance led to a good overall rally in the index, but it distracted people from the other 495 underperforming stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb43ec1382ac15f7a9090cf792e1236\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The massive success of FAAMG has created a general positive impact for tech stocks, which have seen a surge in investor demand and, as is the case in the investment space, strong demand has stimulated and increased supply. One barometer worth noting in this context is the approach of unprofitable companies to IPOs.</p><p>Before the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s, IPOs of unprofitable companies were relatively few, surging during the bubble, but the number has since declined again. In the bull market of 2020-2021, unprofitable initial public offerings (IPOs) experienced a big rebound as investors were willing to support the desire of technology companies to scale and the need for biotech companies to spend on drug trials.</p><p>If companies with bright prospects provide momentum for a bull market, emerging things in the market may play a role in fueling the flames, exacerbating its rally. SPAC (backdoor listing) is a typical recent example. Investors provided blank checks for these newly formed companies to carry out acquisition activities and get their funds back with interest after meeting the following two conditions \"if the acquisition is not completed within two years, or if the investor disagrees with the proposed acquisition.\"</p><p>This seems to be a \"steady profit\" (the most dangerous word in the world) buy and sell, with the number of SPACs soaring from 10 in 2013 and 59 in 2019 to 248 in 2020 and 613 in 2021. Some companies make huge profits, while in others investors get their money back with interest and principal. But the lack of suspicion of untested innovation, coupled with the push of bull market psychology, has allowed too many SPACs to be created, whether by competent or incompetent sponsors, who will be paid heavily for completing acquisitions...... any acquisition.</p><p>Today, SPACs that have completed acquisitions and exited since 2020 have an average selling price of $5.25, compared to the offering price of $10.00. This is a good example of how new things are not as reliable as investors think-investors are once again paying the price for \"something that must not happen\".</p><p>Supporters of SPACs believe that these entities are just another way for companies to go public and are not worried about its potential role. I focus on how investors embrace an untested innovation during hot times.</p><p>Another dynamic on the innovation factor is also worth mentioning, which shows how \"new things\" contribute to the bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Robinhood Markets began offering stocks in the years before the pandemic,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>And commission-free trading of cryptocurrencies, etc. After the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, this encouraged people to flock to the stock market and start speculating in stocks, because casinos and sports events stopped gambling business.</p><p></li><li>Millions of people who didn't lose their jobs received generous financial subsidies, which meant many had increased disposable income during the pandemic. Social networking sites like Reddit have turned investment into a \"social activity in isolation at home\".</p><p></li><li>As a result, a large number of novice retail investors flock to the stock market, many of whom lack basic investment experience.</p><p></li><li>Newbies will be thrilled to admire a public figure and claim that \"the stock market only goes up\".</p><p></li><li>As a result, the prices of many technology stocks and \"meme stocks\" (group retail stocks) have soared.</p><p></li></ul>The last emerging thing worth discussing is cryptocurrencies. For example, supporters of Bitcoin cite its multiple uses and its limited supply relative to potential demand. Skeptics, on the other hand, point out that Bitcoin lacks cash flow and intrinsic value to determine a fair price. Whichever side is correct, a Bitcoin satisfies some of the characteristics that benefit from a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Bitcoin is relatively new (although it has been around for 14 years, people have only paid attention to it in the last five years).</p><p></li><li>Bitcoin prices surged dramatically, rising from $5,000 in 2020 to a peak of $68,000 in 2021.</p><p></li><li>According to Galbrait, this is certainly something that previous generations \"couldn't appreciate\".</p><p></li><li>In all these respects, this fits perfectly with Galbrait's description of something \"enthusiastically embraced by a new, young and very confident generation as a great innovation in the field of finance\".</p><p></li><li>Now, Bitcoin is down more than half from its 2021 highs, but thousands of other cryptocurrencies that already exist have fallen even more.</p><p></li></ul>The spectacular performance of FAAMGs, tech stocks, SPACs, group stocks, and cryptocurrencies in 2020 has made this fascination even more frenetic and added to the general optimism among investors. It's hard to imagine a full-blown bull market in the absence of something never before seen or heard of. The belief of \"something new new\" and \"this time is different\" is typical of the recurring bull market theme.</p><p><b>04. Competition to the bottom</b></p><p>Another bull theme in different cycles is the deleterious impact of bull trends on the quality of investor decisions. In short, when calm reason is replaced by burning optimism:</p><p><ul><li>Asset price increases</p><p></li><li>Greed overshadows fear</p><p></li><li>No longer worry about losses, instead of worrying about stepping short</p><p></li><li>Risk aversion and caution fade away</p><p></li></ul>It must be remembered that it is risk aversion and fear of loss that keeps markets safe and sane. These developments usually boost the market, making caution and rational thinking disappear, and making it a dangerous place.</p><p>I explained in my 2007 memo, Race to the Bottom, that when investors and capital providers have too much money in their hands and they are too eager to put it to use, they are too aggressive in bidding for securities and lending opportunities. Fierce bidding depresses expected returns, increases risk, weakens security structures, and reduces fault tolerance rates.</p><p><ul><li>Cautious investors stick to their guns, saying, \"I insist on 8% interest and a strong contract.\"</p><p></li><li>Its rivals responded: \"I accept 7% interest and ask for fewer covenants.\"</p><p></li><li>The most unruly person didn't want to miss this opportunity and said, \"I can accept 6% interest and don't need a covenant.\"</p><p></li></ul>This is the \"race to the bottom\", which is exactly what people often say \"the worst loans come from the best times\". This is something that can't happen when people are distressed by recent losses and fear experiencing more losses. After the Federal Reserve took large-scale measures to deal with the global financial crisis, it ushered in a record economic recovery and stock market rise for more than 10 years, but it was accompanied by:</p><p><ul><li>IPO wave of loss-making companies</p><p></li><li>Record issuance of subordinated securities (high-risk CCC-rated bonds)</p><p></li><li>Companies in high-volatility sectors (technology and software) are issuing heavily, and people tend to avoid these sectors in times of caution</p><p></li><li>Rising Valuation Multiples for M&A and Acquisitions</p><p></li><li>Risk premium continues to fall</p><p></li></ul>Favorable developments also encourage greater use of leverage. Leverage amplifies gains and losses, but in a bull market, investors are convinced that gains are inevitable and ignore the possibility of losses. In this case, few people can find a reason not to borrow, because the interest cost of debt is minimal and can increase the return of success.</p><p>But increasing debt at a high price late in the upward cycle is not the best way to succeed. When things get bad, leverage becomes unfavorable. Investment banks get into trouble when they issue debt at the end of their investment. Debt \"hanging\" on a bank's balance sheet tends to become a \"canary in a coal mine,\" suggesting impending danger.</p><p>Since I believe in the enduring investment motto, it is quite appropriate at this point to quote the motto I think the greatest investor behavior: \"Where the wise begin, the fool ends\". People who buy stocks during the first phase of a bull market, with lower prices due to the prevailing pessimism (such as during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and early COVID-19 pandemic in 2020), have the potential to earn strong returns with minimal risk, with the main prerequisites being money and guts.</p><p>But when the bull market heats up and considerable returns encourage investor optimism, the traits of returning at this time are eagerness, credulity and risk-taking. In the third phase of the bull market, new entrants bought heavily and the stock market remained high. Caution, selectivity and discipline disappear when they are most needed.</p><p>It is particularly noteworthy that investors who are optimistic and are rewarded by their risk tolerance often no longer discern investment opportunities. Not only did investors think that something \"new\" would certainly succeed, but ultimately they concluded that the space had a bright future, so there was no need to draw any further distinctions.</p><p>For the above reasons, \"bull market psychology\" is not a commendatory term. It implies unalerted behavior and a tolerance for high risks, and investors should be worried, not encouraged. As Buffett said, \"The less cautious others are in handling their own affairs, the more cautious we must be in handling our own affairs.\" Investors must know when bull market psychology is dominating and exercise the necessary caution.</p><p><b>05. Pendulum effect</b></p><p>Bull markets don't appear out of nowhere. The winners in every bull market become winners for the simple reason that there are some facts behind their profits. However, the bull market I talked about above tends to inflate the value of stocks and push the stock price to levels that are too high and therefore vulnerable. And, the upward fluctuation doesn't last forever.</p><p>I once wrote in OntheCouch (January 2016): \"In the real world, things usually oscillate back and forth between'pretty good 'and'not too hot.' But in the investment world, people's expectations often change from'hopeful 'to'desperate'\". In the market, overdoing things is one of the key characteristics of investor behavior. During a bull market, investors believe that difficult, unlikely and unprecedented things will definitely work.</p><p>However, in the less prosperous period, good economic news and \"performance exceeding expectations\" failed to stimulate buying, and the rise in stock prices no longer made investors with low positions feel regret. Therefore, we see that people are no longer willing to abandon questioning for the time being, and their mentality quickly turns negative.</p><p>Investors can interpret almost any piece of news, whether it is positive or negative depends on the way it is reported and their mood, which is the key. (The cartoon below, one of my all-time favorites, was published decades ago. Look at the depth of those antennas and TV cabinets, but it's obvious that the captions are relevant to the subject of this moment.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b3a74156c69f713bc1092a9a6544f22\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>\"On Wall Street today, the news of interest rate cuts pushed the stock market higher, but then lower interest rates led to inflation expectations that pushed the stock market lower, and then people realized that interest rate cuts could stimulate a depressed economy, and this expectation pushed the stock market higher. After that, the stock market eventually fell amid the fear that the overheating economy would lead to another rate hike.\"</p><p>Turning this popular saying upside down reflects the process of \"from full of hope to despair\" I mentioned earlier. While there is some truth in supporting the idea that a bull market will happen, when it goes well, investors regard it as a certain deal. However, when some flaws in this view are exposed, people think that it is completely wrong.</p><p>On the happy days (a year ago), tech bulls said, \"You have to buy growth stocks because their earnings are likely to grow in the next few decades.\" But now, after a plunge, we hear instead: \"Investing based on future potential is too risky. You have to hold value stocks because you can determine their present value and price them reasonably.\"</p><p>Similarly, in good times, investors who participated in IPOs of loss-making companies said: \"There's nothing wrong with companies reporting losses, and it's reasonable for them to spend money to scale.\" But the story is different now, with many saying: \"Who invests in unprofitable companies? They just burn money.\"</p><p>Someone who doesn't spend much time watching the market may think that asset prices depend entirely on fundamentals, but that's not the case. Asset prices depend on fundamentals and how people view those fundamentals. As a result, changes in asset prices depend on changes in fundamentals and/or how people perceive changes in those fundamentals.</p><p>Company fundamentals are theoretically subject to so-called \"analysis,\" and possibly even forecasting. Perceptions of fundamentals, on the other hand, are subjective, unaffected by analysis or forecasts, and change more rapidly and drastically.</p><p>Some common sayings also reflect this view:</p><p><ul><li>Balloons deflate much faster than they inflate.</p><p></li><li>Things happen later than you think, but they happen much faster than you think.</p><p></li></ul>As for the latter, in my experience, we often see positive or negative fundamentals happen simultaneously for a period of time without the stock price reacting. But then a tipping point is reached-both fundamentally and psychologically-where all of a sudden is reflected in price, sometimes overreflected.</p><p><b>06. What happens then?</b></p><p>A bull market doesn't treat all industries equally. As I discussed earlier, in a bull market, optimism is most strongly focused on a certain class of stocks, such as \"new things\" or \"super stocks.\" Such stocks rose the most, becoming a symbol of the bull market during this period and attracting further buying. The media is paying the most attention to such stocks, prolonging the whole process. During 2020-2021, FAAMG and other tech stocks are prime examples of this phenomenon.</p><p>The truth is self-evident, but I still want to say that investors who hold a large number of stocks that lead the bull market are doing well. Some money managers are smart enough or lucky enough to focus on these stocks so they achieve the highest returns, optimism prevails, and at the same time, they appear on the front pages of newspapers and cable TV shows. In the past, I have said that our industry is full of people who have a reputation for making the right decisions in a row. And for fund managers who are smart enough or lucky enough to add to the sectors leading the bull market, the famous can double.</p><p>However, stocks that have made the biggest gains in rising years tend to have the biggest losses in falling years. The aphorisms that apply here come from the real world, but that doesn't make them any less relevant: \"Success is Xiao He, and failure is Xiao He\", \"There are ups and downs\" and \"The higher you climb, the harder you fall\":</p><p>The first tech fund grew 157% in 2020, going from obscurity to fame. But it's down 23% in 2021 and another 57% so far in 2022. The $100 invested at the end of 2019 was worth $257 a year later, but today it has fallen to $85. Another less volatile tech fund rose 48% in 2020 but has since fallen 48%. Unfortunately, the 48% upside and the 48% downside do not cancel each other out, in effect, there is a net decline of $22 for every $100 invested. The third tech fund rose a staggering 291% in the first year, but fell 21%, 60% and 61% in the following three years. During those four years, the $100 invested at the beginning was worth just $43 at the end, equating to an 89% drop from an incredible high at the end of the first year. Wait a minute, the current boom/bust period hasn't lasted four years yet. No, I'm quoting results from 1999-2002, when the last tech bubble also burst. I only mention them to remind you that the current performance is a reproduction of the situation. Earlier I mentioned Robinhood, the originator of commission-free trading. It epitomizes digital currency stocks during the 2020-2021 bull market. Robinhood went public at $38/share in July 2021, and the stock price surged to $85 a week later. Shares are today at just $10, down 88% from their highs in less than a year.</p><p>But the average performance of stocks is not really that bad, is it? The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down \"only\" 27.4% in 2022. One feature of this \"bull market\" is that the largest constituents perform best, thus boosting the index. Thinking about what this means for the rest of the constituent stocks, 22% of the Nasdaq's stocks are down at least 50%. (The data here and below are as of May 20)</p><p>Here are some of my random picks of the declines of well-known tech, digital currency, and innovative stocks. Maybe, when some of the stocks here are at their peak, you feel blamed for not getting them:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffeced6fe46e2035410c8d0d198ea4da\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"956\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hypothetically, you still believe that the stock price is determined by a consensus reached by smart investors based on fundamentals. If so, then why are all these stocks falling so hard? Do you really believe that the value of these businesses has evaporated by more than half on average over the past few months? This question raises some other questions that I often think about.</p><p>Bitcoin often moves in the same direction at a time of wild stock market volatility. Is there some fundamental reason behind this that leads to the correlation between the two trends? The same goes for market linkages between countries: when Japanese stocks start off sharply, European and American stocks tend to follow suit. Sometimes, it seems like the US stock market is leading the way while the Japanese stock market is slipping at the same time. Is the connection between the fundamentals of these countries sufficient to cause them to link?</p><p>My answer to all of these questions is usually \"no\". The common denominator is not fundamentals, but psychological factors, and all of these things are similarly affected when the latter changes significantly.</p><p><b>07. Experience</b></p><p>As for investing students, the most important thing is not what happens in a specific time period, but what we can learn from these events. We can learn a lot from the 2020-2021 trends that are consistent with those seen in previous cycles. In a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Optimism is built on things that are done very well.</p><p></li><li>The impact is strongest when the stock price rises from a base that is rather depressed in both psychological and price terms.</p><p></li><li>There is no worry in bull market psychology, and it has a high level of risk tolerance, so it is accompanied by extremely aggressive behavior. Taking risks is rewarded, but the need for hard work is ignored.</p><p></li><li>High returns make people more confident that new things, small probability events, and optimistic outcomes will happen. When people are convinced of the value of these things, they tend to come to the conclusion that there are no stocks that are too expensive.</p><p></li><li>After they (and prices) reach unsustainable levels, these effects eventually cool down.</p><p></li><li>Markets at high levels are vulnerable to external events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p></li><li>The assets that gained the most, and the investors who increased their holdings, often experienced painful reversals.</p><p></li></ul>I have seen this happen many times in my career, and none of them are entirely caused by fundamentals. On the contrary, psychological factors are the main reason, and the way psychology works is unlikely to change. This is why I firmly believe that as long as humans are involved in the investment process, we will see them happen again and again.</p><p>And, note that the wild movements in the market are basically driven by psychological factors, and it is obvious that if possible, market movements can only be predicted when prices are extremely high or extremely low.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1237ed2d4679f28b36508f982605e52f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157934587","content_text":"百年来，股票市场起起伏伏，周而复始，从未有停止，无数周期如璀璨流星般从历史天空中划过。为什么会有周期，为什么投资者要将无数精力投注到与市场波动的持续抗争之中？因为他们的投资心理始终在影响市场的走向。只要人类参与投资，我们就会看到它们一次又一次地发生。在橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）这篇名为《牛市的韵律》（Bull Market Rhymes）的最新备忘录中，对牛市周期规律进行了分析，并指出通过投资者行为可判断出当下所处阶段，在股市崩盘之前趁早离场。出于对财富梦想的追求，投资者在牛市狂潮中会缺少适当的恐惧，而这种狂热心理的出现预示着风险的临近。马克斯表示，投资者必须知道牛市心理何时占据主导地位，并保持必要的谨慎态度。“牛市心理”并非褒义词，它意味着毫无警觉的行为和高风险承受能力，投资者应该感到担忧，而不是受到鼓舞：是风险厌恶和对损失的恐惧让市场保持安全和理智。马克斯指出，资产价格取决于基本面以及人们如何看待这些基本面。牛市中的高回报使人们更加相信新事物、小概率事件和乐观的结果将会发生。当人们对这些东西的价值深信不疑时，他们往往会得出“没有太贵的股票”的结论。此时新入市者大举买进，股市维持在高位。谨慎、选择性和纪律，在最需要的时候却消失不见。马克斯还以当下股市行情举例：在今时今日的华尔街，降息的消息将股市推高，但接下来利率走低导致通胀的预期把股市压低，然后，人们意识到降息能刺激萧条的经济，这种预期又将股市推高，之后，在经济过热将导致再次加息的恐惧中，股市最终下挫。马克斯直言，他信奉的是经久不衰的投资格言，因此最伟大的投资者行为应该是“智者所始，愚者所终”。以下为该备忘录的全文：虽然我在备忘录中运用了大量格言和引语，但只有少数能够进入我的首选名单，我最爱之一是马克吐温的名言：历史不会重演，但会以相似的韵律重复。有据可查的是，马克吐温在1874年说过前四个词，但是并没有准确的证据表明他曾说过后面的话。多年来，有很多人说过类似的话。1965年，精神分析学家Theodor Reik在名为“遥不可及”的文章中表达过同样的观点。他自己又多加了几句，我认为他的表述是最好的：周期是反复的，起起伏伏，但过程基本相同，变化很小。有人说历史会重演，但这可能不太准确，历史只是以相似的韵律重复。曾经的投资事件不会重演，但事件主旋律确实会重现，尤其是与投资行为相关的，这正是我研究的内容。在过去两年间，Reik所写道的周期经历了起起伏伏，引发市场注目。让我尤其震惊的，是在投资行为中再度出现的典型风格，这将成为本次备忘录的主题。我先提前声明，本次备忘录并不能预估市场的潜在方向。举个例子，市场看涨行为从2020年3月触及底部开始，但自那时起，经济内部（通货膨胀）和经济外部（俄乌冲突）都发生了严重问题，并且出现了重大调整。包括我在内，没有人能够知道这些事情加在一起会对未来造成何种影响。我写这篇备忘录的目的，只是为了将近期事件放在历史的背景下，从中发现一些隐含的经验教训。这一点至关重要，因为我们必须回到22年前，回到2000年科技—传媒—电信泡沫破灭之前，看看当时真正牛市的开始和由此引发的熊市结束。很多读者因为开始投资的时间较晚，没有经历过当时的事件。你可能会问“在2008-2009年全球金融危机和2020年疫情大流行导致市场崩溃之前，市场收益情况如何？”在我看来，在这两场危机之前，市场都是渐进式上涨，并不是沿着抛物线上行。上涨不是由狂热情绪推动的，股价也没有被推升至疯狂的高度，而且高股价并不是造成任何一场危机的原因。2008-2009年危机是源自房地产市场和次贷证券化的出现，2020年崩溃则是因为新冠疫情的流行和政府为控制疫情而关闭经济。对于前面所说的“真正牛市”，我对它的定义并不是来自投资百科网站（Investopedia）：金融市场中资产或证券价格在一段时间内持续上涨。市场通常在股价下跌20%之后，出现20%的上涨。第一个定义过于平淡，没能捕捉到投资者在牛市行情中的核心情绪。第二个定义提供了一种错误的精准，牛市不应该用价格的百分比变化来定义。对我来说，最好用它给人的感觉、背后的投资者心理以及由此引发的投资行为来进行描述。（在牛市和熊市的数字标准被制定之前，我就已经开始投资，我认为这样的标准毫无意义。标普500指数下跌19.9%还是20.1%真的很重要吗？我还是更喜欢熊市的老派定义—神经折磨（nerve-racking）。01、过度与修正我的第二本书是《周期》（Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side）。众所周知，我是周期的学生，也是周期的信徒。这些年我作为投资者，经历了几个重要的周期（也接受了教育）。我相信了解自己在市场周期中的位置，可以提示我们接下来会发生的事情。但是当我把这本书写完三分之二时，我突然想到一个之前从没考虑过的问题：为什么会有周期？比如，标普500指数自1957年诞生，这65年的平均年回报率略高于10%，为什么它的回报率不能每年都是10%？在这里补充一下我在2004年7月备忘录《中庸之道》中提出的问题，为什么在这期间标普500指数的回报率只有6次在8%—12%之间，为什么它在90%时间里的表现都与此相差甚远？在经过一段时间思考之后，我认为可以这么解释，那就是市场存在“过度与修正”。如果把股票市场比作一台机器，你希望它能够随着时间的推移持续稳定地运转，这个想法是合理的。然而，我认为投资者心理状态对其决策造成的重大影响，可以在很大程度上解释市场出现波动的原因。当投资者开始大举看涨时，他们倾向于得出以下结论。首先，一切都将永远上涨；其次，无论他们为一项资产支付多高的价格，其他人都会以更高的价格从他们手中买走（即“更大傻瓜”理论），因为他们对市场高度非常乐观：股价上涨速度会比公司利润增速更快，涨幅会远高于公允价值（超额上涨）。之后投资环境开始令人失望，出高价的愚蠢举动变得很显眼，股价会跌落至公允价值（修正），之后进一步跌破该价格水平。股价下跌会进一步引发市场悲观情绪，由此导致股价下挫，并远远低于其本身价值（过度下跌）。最终抄底买入会助推低迷股价回升至其公允价值（修正）。过度上涨会导致回报率在一段时间内高于平均水平，而过度下挫也会导致回报率在一段时间内低于平均水平。当然，可能还有其他因素在发挥作用，但是我认为，“过度和修正”可以解释大部分情况。在2020-2021年期间，我们看到股市有些过度上涨，而现在我们看到它们正在被修正。02、牛市心理学在牛市行情中，有利环境会引领股价上涨并提振投资者信心，而这种投资信心会诱发激进操作，之后会进一步引发股价上涨，那么接下来会出现更加乐观的投资心态以及持续的冒险操作。这种上升式螺旋就是牛市的本质，其上升过程看起来似乎势不可挡。在疫情大流行初期，我们见证了一场典型的资产价格崩盘。标普500指数先是在2020年2月19日创下3386点的历史新高，随后在短短34天内重挫三分之一，并在3月23日跌至2237点。但是之后在多种力量共同努力下，股价又出现大幅上涨：其中美联储将联邦基金利率下调至接近零的水平，并与财政部一道宣布了大规模经济刺激措施。这些行动让投资者相信，国家机构会不惜一切代价稳定经济。降息显著降低了投资的预期回报，影响其相对吸引力。这些因素结合在一起，迫使投资者开始承受短期内出现的风险。随后资产价格出现上涨：到当年8月底，标普500指数已经收回所有失地，并涨超2月高点。FAAMG（脸书、亚马逊、苹果、微软和谷歌）、软件股和其他科技股大幅上涨，推动市场走高。最终，投资者得出结论，认为他们可以期待股市持续上涨，这也符合他们此前在牛市行情中的常规心态。就像上面最后一点，在牛市心理中最重要的是，就是大多数人认为股价上涨是预示之后行情的积极信号，不少人开始变得乐观。只有少数人会怀疑这种行情是过度上涨，其收益是依赖未来预期，所以上涨并不会持续，并且行情将发生逆转。这让我想起了我最喜欢的另一句格言，是大约在50年前我最早学会的一句，即“牛市的三个阶段”：第一阶段，当一些有远见的人开始押注牛市或将到来；第二阶段，当大多数投资者意识到牛市正在发生；第三阶段，当每个人都认为牛市会永远持续下去。有意思的是，虽然在美联储的主导下，股市从2020年3月的疲软底部快速转变为5月的繁荣景象，但是半信半疑才是我在这期间最常见到的投资者心理，他们问我最多的问题是：环境这么糟糕，疫情大流行肆虐加上经济停滞，股市还能上涨？那时很难找到乐观主义者。很多投资者成为我已故岳父所描述的“戴手铐的人”：他们买股票不是因为自己想买，而是他们不得不买，因为现金回报率很低。一旦股市开始上涨，由于担心会被抛在后面，所以他们会追逐更高的价格。因此，股市上涨似乎是源自美联储对资本市场的操纵，而不是来自企业的良好业绩或投资者的乐观情绪。直到2020年底，在标普500指数较3月底部上涨67.9%，全年累计上涨16.3%之后，投资者的心理状态才终于赶上飙升的股价。牛市很少能够经历第一阶段，经历第二阶段的概率也很低，许多投资者都是从当年3月底的深度绝望直接转变为后来的极度乐观。对当下来说，这就是一个很好的提醒。虽然有些历史事件的主旋律确实会重复出现，但是期待历史精确重演就是一个很大的错误。03、乐观理由、超级股票和新生事物在狂热的牛市行情中，投资者会变得歇斯底里。在极端情况下，他们的想法和行为会脱离实际。这里的前提是，必须出现一些要素既能激发投资者想象力，还能阻止他们谨慎思考。因此值得注意的是，总有一些要素会在牛市中出现：新的发展、新的发明以及推动股票上涨的理由。从定义上看，牛市的特点是繁荣向上、信心倍增、容易轻信以及投资者愿意为资产支付高价，而所有这些要素都在事后被证明是超出了限度。历史经验表明，将这些特点保持在合理范围内是至关重要的。鉴于这个原因，能够刺激牛市出现的理性或感性原因都来自新生事物，无法通过历史经验解释。历史充分证明，当市场出现看涨行为，股票估值被推高，以及投资者开始毫不犹豫地接受新生事物时，后果往往是非常痛苦的。每个人都知道（或者应该知道）在股市呈现抛物线上涨之后通常会下跌20%—50%。然而正如我在高中英语课上学到的“自愿终止怀疑”（the willing suspension of disbelief），上述行为仍在投资者中不断发生，反复出现。下面是我最喜欢的另一句名言：狂喜的感觉在过去和现在都鲜为人知。人们对金融市场的记忆非常短暂，这就导致金融危机很快就会被遗忘。而当相同或者非常相似的情况再度重演时，就算发生在几年之内，在年轻且极度自信的新一代眼中，这场危机也会被誉为是金融界和经济领域的重大发现。在人类涉猎的行业中，很少有行业像金融业一样，曾经的历史经验如此没有意义。在某种程度上，历史经验完全成为回忆的一部分，对于那些无力欣赏眼下盛景的人而言，成为了他们的原始避难所—John Kenneth Galbraith，《金融狂喜简史》，1990年在过去30年里，我多次与读者分享这句话，因为我认为它很好地总结了一些重要的观点，但针对其中所描述的行为，我之前并没有分享过我对它的理解。我不认为投资者是健忘的。相反，对历史的了解和适当的谨慎态度位于天平的一侧，追求财富的梦想位于天平的另一侧，而后者总是获胜。回忆、谨慎、现实主义和风险规避只会阻碍致富梦想的实现。所以出于这个原因，当牛市行情开始时，投资者总是缺少适度的担忧。取而代之的往往是为超出历史估值标准寻找理由。1987年10月11日，Anise Wallace在《纽约时报》上发表的一篇题为《为什么这个市场周期并没有什么不同》的文章中描述了这种现象。当时人们持有乐观、积极的情绪，为异常高的股价寻找合理性，但Wallace在文中指出，这种想法是站不住脚的：74岁的共同基金经理约翰·邓普顿曾指出，投资中最危险的四个字是“这次不同”。在股市大起大落时，投资者总会用这一理由来将其情绪驱动的决策合理化。在接下来的一年里，许多投资者可能会重复这四个字，为高股价辩护。但他们更应该持有“有钱了我就还你”（the check’s in the mail找借口拖延）的态度来看待股市上涨，不管经纪人或基金经理怎么说，牛市不会永远持续下去。结果，没花一年时间，仅仅八天后，全球遭遇了“黑色星期一”，道琼斯工业指数单日暴跌22.6%。对牛市的另一个解释是投资者相信某些企业一定会拥有美好的未来。这适用于20世纪60年代末的“漂亮50”成长股；80年代的半导体制造商；以及90年代末的电信、互联网和电子商务公司。人们认为，每一项发展都能够改变世界，因此，过去的商业现实并不能限制投资者的想象力和投资意愿。他们确实改变了世界。尽管如此，曾被认为合理的高估值并没有持续下去。在许多牛市中，一或多个群体被我称之为“超级股票”，它们的迅速崛起让投资者越来越乐观。日益增长的乐观情绪将股价推向高点，成为以往市场循环过程中的一个特征。通过相对价值比较和投资者情绪的普遍改善，这种积极性和估值走高进一步反映到其他证券（或所有证券）的估值中。回顾前两年，在2020—2021年，FAAMG（脸书、亚马逊、苹果、微软和谷歌）在令投资者兴奋不已的公司中位居榜首，其市场主导地位和规模能力前所未有的。2020年FAAMG的惊艳表现吸引了投资者的注意，并支持了普遍的看涨趋势。到2020年9月（六个月内），这些股票与3月份的低点相比，几乎翻了一番，较年初上涨了61%。值得一提的是，这五只股票在标普500指数中权重很大，因此它们的表现导致指数整体涨势良好，但这分散了人们对其他495只表现不佳股票的注意力。FAAMG的巨大成功为科技股带来了普遍的积极影响，投资者对科技股的需求激增，与投资领域的情况一样，强劲的需求刺激并增加了供应。在这种情况下，一个值得注意的晴雨表是未盈利的公司对待IPO的态度。在20世纪90年代末互联网泡沫之前，没有盈利的公司的IPO相对较少，在泡沫期间期间激增，但此后数量再次下降。在2020-2021年的牛市中，未盈利的首次公开募股（IPO）经历了一次大的反弹，因为投资者愿意支持科技公司规模化的愿望和生物科技公司在药物试验上的开支需求。如果拥有光明前景的公司为牛市提供了动力，那么市场上的新兴事物可能会起到推波助澜的作用，加剧其上涨。SPAC（借壳上市）是最近一个典型的例子。投资者为这些新成立的公司开展收购活动提供了空白支票，在满足以下两个条件后可以连本带利拿回资金，“如果两年内没有完成收购，或者如果投资者不同意拟议的收购”。这似乎是一个“稳赚不赔”（世界上最危险的一个词）的买卖，SPAC的数量从2013年的10个和2019年的59个飙升至2020年的248个和2021的613个。一些公司获得了巨额利润，而在其他情况下，投资者连本带息收回了资金。但是，由于缺乏对未经考验的创新的怀疑，加之牛市心理的推动，使得太多SPAC被创造出来，无论是由称职的还是不称职的发起者，他们都会因完成收购而获得高额报酬......任何收购。如今，自2020年以来通过完成收购并退出的SPAC平均售价为5.25美元，而发行价为10.00美元。这是一个很好的例子，证明了新事物并不是投资者所想的那么可靠——投资者再次为“一定不会发生的事”付出代价。SPAC的支持者则认为，这些实体只是公司上市的另一种方式，并不担心它的潜在作用。我重点关注的是，投资者在火热时期如何欣然接受一项未经考验的创新。另一个有关创新因素的动态也值得一提，其展示了“新事物”是如何对牛市作出了贡献：Robinhood Markets在疫情暴发前几年开始提供股票、Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF和加密货币等的免佣金交易。新冠疫情暴发后，这就鼓励了人们涌向股市，开始炒股，因为赌场和体育赛事停止了赌博业务。数百万没有失业的人得到了慷慨的财政补贴，这意味着许多人在疫情期间的可支配收入增加了。而像Reddit这样的社交网站把投资转变成一种“隔离居家的社交活动”。因此，大量的新手散户投资者涌向股市，其中许多人缺乏基本的投资经验。新手会因崇拜某位公众人物而激动不已，并声称“股市只会上涨” 。因此，许多科技股和“模因股”（抱团散户股）价格飙升。最后一个值得讨论的新兴事物是加密货币。例如，比特币的支持者列举了其多种用途，以及相对于潜在需求其供应是有限的。另一方面，怀疑论者指出，比特币缺乏现金流和内在价值，因此无法确定公允价格。无论哪一方是正确的，比特币都满足从牛市中受益的一些特征：比特币相对较新的（虽然它已经存在14年了，但最近五年人们才关注到它）。比特币价格大幅飙升，从2020年的5000美元上涨到2021年的最高点68000美元。根据Galbrait的说法，这肯定是前几代人“无法欣赏”事物。从所有这些方面来看，这完全符合Galbrait的描述，即“由新的、年轻且十分自信的一代人热烈拥护，认为是金融领域伟大的创新发明”的事物。现在，比特币与2021的高点相比下跌了一半多，但已经存在的数千种其他加密货币，跌幅要更大。2020年FAAMG、科技股、SPACs、抱团股和加密货币的惊人表现使得这种迷恋更加狂热，并增加了投资者的普遍乐观情绪。很难想象在没有前所未见或闻所未闻的情况下，会出现一个全面的牛市。“新新事物”和“这次不同”的信念是牛市主题反复出现的典型特征。04、逐底竞争不同周期中的另一个牛市主题是，牛市趋势对投资者决策质量的有害影响。简言之，当冷静理智被燃烧的乐观情绪取代时：资产价格上涨贪婪盖过恐惧不再担心亏损，转向担忧踏空风险厌恶和小心谨慎逐渐消失必须记住，是风险厌恶和对损失的恐惧让市场保持安全和理智。上述事态发展通常会提振市场，使谨慎和理智思考消失，令其成为危险之地。我曾在2007年的备忘录《逐底竞争》中解释说，当投资者和资本提供者手中有太多资金，他们太渴望投入使用时，所以对证券和放贷机会的出价就过于激进。激烈的竞价压低了预期回报，增加了风险，削弱了安全结构，并降低了容错率。谨慎的投资者坚持己见，说：“我坚持8%的利息和强力契约。”其竞争对手回应道：“我接受7%的利息，并要求更少的契约。”最不守规矩的人不想错过这个机会，说：“我可以接受6%的利息，且不需要契约。”这是“逐底竞争”，这正是人们常说的“最差的贷款来自于最好的时候”。当人们对最近的损失感到痛心，害怕经历更多损失时，这是不可能发生的事情。美联储为应对全球金融危机采取大规模的措施后，迎来了了长达10多年的创纪录经济复苏和股市上涨，但伴随而来的还有：亏损公司的IPO浪潮次级证券（高风险CCC评级债券）创纪录的发行高波动性行业（科技和软件）公司大量发债，而谨慎的时期人们往往会选择回避这些行业并购和收购的估值倍数不断上升风险溢价持续走低有利的发展也鼓励更多地使用杠杆。杠杆放大收益和损失，但在牛市中，投资者确信收益是必然的，而忽视损失的可能性。在这种情况下，很少有人能找到不举债的理由，因为债务的利息成本微乎其微，且可以增加成功的回报。但是，在上涨周期后期以高价增加负债并不是成功的最佳方式。当情况变得糟糕时，杠杆就会变得不利。当投资银行在投资末期发行债务时，他们就会陷入困境。“挂在”银行资产负债表上的债务往往会成为“煤矿里的金丝雀”，暗示危险即将到来。由于我信奉的是经久不衰的投资格言，因此，在这一点上，引用我认为最伟大的投资者行为的格言是十分恰当的，“智者所始，愚者所终”。在牛市的第一阶段购买股票的人，由于普遍的悲观情绪（如2008-09年全球金融危机期间和2020年新冠疫情初期），价格较低，有可能在风险极小的情况下获得丰厚的回报，主要先决条件是资金和胆量。但当牛市升温，可观的回报鼓励了投资者乐观的情绪，此时获得回报的特质是渴望、轻信和冒险。在牛市的第三阶段，新入市者大举买进，股市维持在高位。谨慎、选择性和纪律，在最需要的时候却消失不见。特别值得注意的是，乐观情绪并因风险承受能力而获得回报的投资者通常不再对投资机会进行辨别。投资者不仅认为一些“新事物”的肯定会成功，而且最终他们得出结论是，该领域前途一片光明，因此没有必要再进行区分。由于上述原因，“牛市心理”并非褒义词。它意味着毫无警觉的行为和高风险承受能力，投资者应该感到担忧，而不是受到鼓舞。正如巴菲特所言，“别人处理自己的事情越不谨慎小心,我们处理自己的事情就越要谨慎小心”。投资者必须知道牛市心理何时占据主导地位，并保持必要的谨慎态度。05、钟摆效应牛市不是凭空出现的。每次牛市中的赢家之所以成为赢家，原因很简单，即他们获利的背后存在一些事实。然而，我上面所说的牛市往往会夸大股票价值，并将股价推至过高也因此脆弱的水平。并且，向上的波动不会永远持续下去。我曾在《躺在沙发上》（OntheCouch，2016年1月）中写道：“在现实世界中，事情通常在‘相当好’和‘不太热’之间来回摆动。但在投资世界中，人们的预期往往从‘充满希望’变为‘绝望’”。在市场中，把事情做得严重过头是投资者行为的关键特征之一。牛市期间，投资者认为，有难度、不大可能发生和前所未有的事情肯定会奏效。但在不那么景气的时期，利好的经济消息和“业绩超过预期”并未能刺激买盘，股价上涨也不再使持仓水平较低的投资者感到后悔。因此，我们看到，人们不再愿意暂时摒弃质疑，心态迅速转为消极。投资者能够对几乎任意一条新闻进行解读，正面还是负面取决于报道方式和他们的心情，这是关键所在。（下面的漫画，我一直以来的最爱之一，是几十年前出版的，看看那些天线和电视机柜的深度，但显而易见，文字说明才与这一刻的主题有关。）“在今时今日的华尔街，降息的消息将股市推高，但接下来利率走低导致通胀的预期把股市压低，然后，人们意识到降息能刺激萧条的经济，这种预期又将股市推高，之后，在经济过热将导致再次加息的恐惧中，股市最终下挫。”将这个盛行的说法倒过来，便反映出我之前提到的“从充满希望到绝望”的过程。虽然支持牛市会发生的观点有些道理，但当进展顺利时，投资者便将其视为板上钉钉的事。然而，当这个观点的某些缺陷暴露出来时，人们又认为它完全错误。在欢乐的日子里（在一年前），科技多头说：“你必须买成长股，因为未来几十年它们的收益很可能会增长。”但现在，在经历了一轮暴跌之后，我们反而听到：“基于未来潜力的投资风险太大。你必须持有价值股，因为能够确定它们的现值，另外定价较为合理。”同样，在经济繁荣时期，参与亏损公司IPO的投资人表示：“报告亏损的公司没有什么问题，他们花钱扩大规模合情合理。”但现在的说法不一样了，许多人表示：“谁会投资于无利可图的公司？他们只会烧钱。”没有花太多时间观察市场的人可能认为资产价格完全取决于基本面，但事实并非如此。资产价格取决于基本面以及人们如何看待这些基本面。因此，资产价格的变化取决于基本面的变化和/或人们如何看待这些基本面的变化。公司基本面理论上受制于所谓的“分析”，甚至可能是预测。另一方面，对基本面的看法是主观的，不受分析或预测的影响，并且变化得更快、更剧烈。一些俗语也反映了这个观点：气球放气的速度比充气的速度快得多。事情发生的时间比你想象的要晚，但是它们发生的速度比你想象的要快得多。至于后者，根据我的经验，我们经常看到积极或消极的基本面会在一段时间内同时出现，而股价却没有反应。但随后达到了一个临界点——无论是基本面还是心理面——全部突然反映在价格上，有时甚至反映过度。06、然后会发生什么？牛市不会对所有行业一视同仁。正如我之前所讨论的，在牛市中，乐观情绪最强烈地集中在某类股票上，例如“新事物”或“超级股票”。这类股票涨幅最大，成为这一时期牛市的象征，并吸引进一步的买盘。媒体最关注这类股票，延长了整个过程。在2020-2021年期间，FAAMG和其他科技股就是这种现象的最好例子。道理不言而喻，但我还是要说，持有大量在牛市中领先的股票的投资者都做得很好。一些基金经理足够聪明或足够幸运地专注于这些股票，因此他们实现的回报最高，乐观情绪盛行，与此同时，他们还出现在报纸和有线电视节目的头版。过去，我曾说过，我们的行业到处都是因连续做出正确决定而出名的人。而对于那些足够聪明或幸运地增持引领牛市的板块的基金经理来说，出名的人可能会翻倍。然而，在上涨年份中涨幅最大的股票往往在下跌年份中跌幅最大。这里适用的格言来自现实世界，但这并没有降低它们的相关性：“成也萧何，败也萧何”“有起必有落”和“爬得越高，摔得越狠”：第一支科技基金在2020年增长了157%，从默默无闻到名声大震。但它在2021年下跌了23%，2022年迄今又下跌了57%。2019年底投资的100美元在一年后价值257美元，但如今已跌至85美元。另一支波动性较小的科技基金在2020年上涨了48%，但此后下跌了48%。不幸的是，上涨的48%和下跌的48%并无法相互抵消，实际上，每投资100美元，净下跌22美元。第三支科技基金在第一年上涨了惊人的291%，但在随后的三年中分别下跌了21%、60%和61%。在这四年里，开始时投资的100美元在最后仅价值43美元，相当于从第一年年底不可思议的高点下降了89%。等一下，目前的繁荣/萧条期还没有持续四年。不，我引用的是1999-2002年的结果，当时最后一个科技泡沫也破裂了。我提它们只是为了提醒你当前的表现是一次情景再现。前面我提到过免佣金交易的鼻祖Robinhood。它是2020-2021年牛市期间数字货币股的缩影。Robinhood于2021年7月以38美元/股的价格上市，一周后股价飙升至85美元。如今的股价仅为10美元，在不到一年的时间里从高位下跌了88%。但是股票的平均表现其实并没有那么糟糕，对吧？以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数在2022年“仅”下跌27.4%。这个“牛市”的一个特征是，最大的成分股表现最好，从而提振了指数。思考一下这对其余成分股意味着什么，纳指22%的股票至少下跌了50%。（此处和下面数据的时间截至5月20日）以下是我随机挑选的一些知名科技、数字货币和创新型股票的跌幅。也许，当这里的一些股票处于巅峰的时候，你因为没有入手而感到自责：假设，你仍然相信股价是由聪明的投资者根据基本面达成的共识决定的。如果是这样，那为什么所有这些股票都跌得如此惨烈？你真的相信这些企业的价值在过去几个月平均蒸发了一半以上吗？这个问题引发了一些我经常在想的其他问题。在股市出现剧烈波动之际，比特币经常朝同一个方向变动。这背后是否存在某种根本原因导致两者之间走势存在相关性？国家之间的市场联系也是如此：当日本股市开局大幅下滑时，欧美股市往往会跟跌。有时，似乎美国股市领先，日本股市却同时出现下滑。这些国家基本面之间的联系是否足以导致它们联动？我对所有这些问题的回答通常都是“不”。共同点不是基本面，而是心理因素，当后者发生重大变化时，所有这些事情都会受到类似的影响。07、经验正如对于投资专业的学生来说，最重要的不是在特定时间段内发生了什么事，而是我们可以从这些事件中学到什么。我们可以从2020-2021年的趋势中学到很多东西，这些趋势与前几个周期的趋势是一致的。在牛市中：乐观是基于那些做得非常好的事情而建立的。当股价从在心理和价位方面均相当低迷的基数上涨时，影响最为强烈。牛市心理不存在担忧情绪，并且具有高水平的风险承受能力，因此伴随极为激进的行为。承担风险会得到回报，而努力勤奋的必要性却被遭到忽视。高回报使人们更加相信新事物、小概率事件和乐观的结果将会发生。当人们对这些东西的价值深信不疑时，他们往往会得出“没有太贵的股票”的结论。在它们（和价格）达到不可持续的水平之后，这些影响最终会降温。处于高位的市场容易受到外部事件的影响，例如俄乌冲突。涨幅最大的资产以及增持它们的投资者，往往会经历痛苦的反转。在我的职业生涯中，我曾多次目睹此类事情发生，当中没有一次完全是由基本面造成的，相反，心理因素是主要原因，而心理的运作方式又不太可能发生改变。这就是为什么我坚信只要人类参与投资过程，我们就会看到它们一次又一次地发生。而且，请注意，市场的剧烈波动基本上是由心理因素驱动的，显而易见，如果可能的话，只有当价格极高或极低时，才能预测市场走势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021517291,"gmtCreate":1653086610813,"gmtModify":1676535219267,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021517291","repostId":"1190645914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190645914","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing 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height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks Opened Higher and Went Lower in Morning Trading, Nasdaq Slid Nearly 1%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stocks Opened Higher and Went Lower in Morning Trading, Nasdaq Slid Nearly 1%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-20 23:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500 slid 0.69% and 0.74% separately. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2e636433516c77f04710dd7e29052\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"122\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190645914","content_text":"U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&P 500 slid 0.69% and 0.74% separately.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029794411,"gmtCreate":1652830380533,"gmtModify":1676535168428,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029794411","repostId":"2236220493","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029794656,"gmtCreate":1652830360475,"gmtModify":1676535168419,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029794656","repostId":"2236274480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236274480","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1652828904,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236274480?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236274480","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank's resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn't be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.\"Restoring pr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank&#39;s resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn&#39;t be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.</p><p>&#34;Restoring price stability is a nonnegotiable need. It is something we have to do,&#34; Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal&#39;s Future of Everything Festival. &#34;There could be some pain involved.&#34;</p><p>Mr. Powell said he hoped that the Fed could bring down inflation while preserving a strong labor market, which he said might lead the unemployment rate -- near half-century lows of 3.6% in April -- to rise slightly. &#34;It may not be a perfect labor market,&#34; he said.</p><p>The central bank is raising interest rates as part of its most aggressive effort in decades to curb upward price pressures. Mr. Powell signaled Tuesday that the central bank was likely to follow a half-percentage-point raise earlier this month, to a range between 0.75% and 1%, with similar moves at meetings in June and July. Until this month, the Fed hadn&#39;t raised rates in such intervals since 2000.</p><p>The Fed last year maintained aggressive stimulus to spur a faster labor market recovery. Mr. Powell said Tuesday that it was possible that disruptions from the pandemic had changed the labor market in ways that made current levels of unemployment inconsistent with the Fed&#39;s 2% inflation goal.</p><p>He said that it seemed the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation &#34;is probably well above 3.6%.&#34;</p><p>The Fed chairman repeated his hope that the central bank can curtail high inflation without spurring a large rise in unemployment. However, Mr. Powell said, there is little from modern economic experience to suggest that outcome can be achieved. &#34;If you look in the history book and find it -- no, you can&#39;t,&#34; he said. &#34;I think we are in a world of firsts.&#34;</p><p>Wells Fargo &amp; Co. Chief Executive Charlie Scharf, speaking at the same event Tuesday morning, said it would be difficult to avoid a recession but noted that consumers and businesses remain financially solid.</p><p>&#34;The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, is short and not all that deep,&#34; he said.</p><p>Mr. Powell said he wasn&#39;t at odds with those who believe the Fed faces a difficult path to achieving what is known as a &#34;soft landing,&#34; in which growth slows enough to bring down inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>&#34;I would say there is no disagreement really. It is a challenging task, made more challenging the last couple months because of global events,&#34; he said. &#34;It is challenging because unemployment is very low already and because inflation is very high.&#34;</p><p>Fed officials described higher inflation a year ago as temporary. They backed away from that characterization last fall, as the labor market healed rapidly and price pressures broadened.</p><p>Still, the Fed as recently as January had expected inflation to diminish this spring as supply-chain bottlenecks improved. Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine in late February and rolling Covid-related lockdowns in China created new sources of inflationary pressures.</p><p>&#34;That is going to make it harder for inflation to come down, so it has added a degree of difficulty to what was already a challenging market,&#34; said Mr. Powell.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s stopping point for rate increases isn&#39;t certainty. If inflation doesn&#39;t show signs of diminishing soon, more officials could conclude that rates need to rise closer to 4% over the next 12 to 18 months, rather than to a level around 3% that most of them projected at their policy meeting two months ago.</p><p>&#34;We will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say, &#39;Yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down,&#39;&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We will go to that point, and there will not be any hesitation about that.&#34;</p><p>The most recent inflation data has been mixed. On a monthly basis, the consumer-price index&#39;s gauge of core prices, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in April, according to a Labor Department report last week, and rose 6.2% over the previous 12 months.</p><p>The Fed uses a different gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. April inflation data from that Commerce Department report will be released on May 27. Based on other recently released figures, Wall Street forecasters estimate a more muted rise in inflation using that measure. Economists at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> think core PCE inflation rose by less than 0.3% in April, bringing the 12-month rate of change to 4.8%, from 5.2% in March.</p><p>&#34;This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation,&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. Until we do, we&#39;ll keep going.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-18 07:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank&#39;s resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn&#39;t be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.</p><p>&#34;Restoring price stability is a nonnegotiable need. It is something we have to do,&#34; Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal&#39;s Future of Everything Festival. &#34;There could be some pain involved.&#34;</p><p>Mr. Powell said he hoped that the Fed could bring down inflation while preserving a strong labor market, which he said might lead the unemployment rate -- near half-century lows of 3.6% in April -- to rise slightly. &#34;It may not be a perfect labor market,&#34; he said.</p><p>The central bank is raising interest rates as part of its most aggressive effort in decades to curb upward price pressures. Mr. Powell signaled Tuesday that the central bank was likely to follow a half-percentage-point raise earlier this month, to a range between 0.75% and 1%, with similar moves at meetings in June and July. Until this month, the Fed hadn&#39;t raised rates in such intervals since 2000.</p><p>The Fed last year maintained aggressive stimulus to spur a faster labor market recovery. Mr. Powell said Tuesday that it was possible that disruptions from the pandemic had changed the labor market in ways that made current levels of unemployment inconsistent with the Fed&#39;s 2% inflation goal.</p><p>He said that it seemed the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation &#34;is probably well above 3.6%.&#34;</p><p>The Fed chairman repeated his hope that the central bank can curtail high inflation without spurring a large rise in unemployment. However, Mr. Powell said, there is little from modern economic experience to suggest that outcome can be achieved. &#34;If you look in the history book and find it -- no, you can&#39;t,&#34; he said. &#34;I think we are in a world of firsts.&#34;</p><p>Wells Fargo &amp; Co. Chief Executive Charlie Scharf, speaking at the same event Tuesday morning, said it would be difficult to avoid a recession but noted that consumers and businesses remain financially solid.</p><p>&#34;The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, is short and not all that deep,&#34; he said.</p><p>Mr. Powell said he wasn&#39;t at odds with those who believe the Fed faces a difficult path to achieving what is known as a &#34;soft landing,&#34; in which growth slows enough to bring down inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>&#34;I would say there is no disagreement really. It is a challenging task, made more challenging the last couple months because of global events,&#34; he said. &#34;It is challenging because unemployment is very low already and because inflation is very high.&#34;</p><p>Fed officials described higher inflation a year ago as temporary. They backed away from that characterization last fall, as the labor market healed rapidly and price pressures broadened.</p><p>Still, the Fed as recently as January had expected inflation to diminish this spring as supply-chain bottlenecks improved. Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine in late February and rolling Covid-related lockdowns in China created new sources of inflationary pressures.</p><p>&#34;That is going to make it harder for inflation to come down, so it has added a degree of difficulty to what was already a challenging market,&#34; said Mr. Powell.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s stopping point for rate increases isn&#39;t certainty. If inflation doesn&#39;t show signs of diminishing soon, more officials could conclude that rates need to rise closer to 4% over the next 12 to 18 months, rather than to a level around 3% that most of them projected at their policy meeting two months ago.</p><p>&#34;We will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say, &#39;Yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down,&#39;&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We will go to that point, and there will not be any hesitation about that.&#34;</p><p>The most recent inflation data has been mixed. On a monthly basis, the consumer-price index&#39;s gauge of core prices, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in April, according to a Labor Department report last week, and rose 6.2% over the previous 12 months.</p><p>The Fed uses a different gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. April inflation data from that Commerce Department report will be released on May 27. Based on other recently released figures, Wall Street forecasters estimate a more muted rise in inflation using that measure. Economists at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> think core PCE inflation rose by less than 0.3% in April, bringing the 12-month rate of change to 4.8%, from 5.2% in March.</p><p>&#34;This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation,&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. Until we do, we&#39;ll keep going.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236274480","content_text":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank's resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn't be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.\"Restoring price stability is a nonnegotiable need. It is something we have to do,\" Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal's Future of Everything Festival. \"There could be some pain involved.\"Mr. Powell said he hoped that the Fed could bring down inflation while preserving a strong labor market, which he said might lead the unemployment rate -- near half-century lows of 3.6% in April -- to rise slightly. \"It may not be a perfect labor market,\" he said.The central bank is raising interest rates as part of its most aggressive effort in decades to curb upward price pressures. Mr. Powell signaled Tuesday that the central bank was likely to follow a half-percentage-point raise earlier this month, to a range between 0.75% and 1%, with similar moves at meetings in June and July. Until this month, the Fed hadn't raised rates in such intervals since 2000.The Fed last year maintained aggressive stimulus to spur a faster labor market recovery. Mr. Powell said Tuesday that it was possible that disruptions from the pandemic had changed the labor market in ways that made current levels of unemployment inconsistent with the Fed's 2% inflation goal.He said that it seemed the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation \"is probably well above 3.6%.\"The Fed chairman repeated his hope that the central bank can curtail high inflation without spurring a large rise in unemployment. However, Mr. Powell said, there is little from modern economic experience to suggest that outcome can be achieved. \"If you look in the history book and find it -- no, you can't,\" he said. \"I think we are in a world of firsts.\"Wells Fargo & Co. Chief Executive Charlie Scharf, speaking at the same event Tuesday morning, said it would be difficult to avoid a recession but noted that consumers and businesses remain financially solid.\"The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is one, is short and not all that deep,\" he said.Mr. Powell said he wasn't at odds with those who believe the Fed faces a difficult path to achieving what is known as a \"soft landing,\" in which growth slows enough to bring down inflation without triggering a recession.\"I would say there is no disagreement really. It is a challenging task, made more challenging the last couple months because of global events,\" he said. \"It is challenging because unemployment is very low already and because inflation is very high.\"Fed officials described higher inflation a year ago as temporary. They backed away from that characterization last fall, as the labor market healed rapidly and price pressures broadened.Still, the Fed as recently as January had expected inflation to diminish this spring as supply-chain bottlenecks improved. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February and rolling Covid-related lockdowns in China created new sources of inflationary pressures.\"That is going to make it harder for inflation to come down, so it has added a degree of difficulty to what was already a challenging market,\" said Mr. Powell.The Fed's stopping point for rate increases isn't certainty. If inflation doesn't show signs of diminishing soon, more officials could conclude that rates need to rise closer to 4% over the next 12 to 18 months, rather than to a level around 3% that most of them projected at their policy meeting two months ago.\"We will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say, 'Yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down,'\" Mr. Powell said. \"We will go to that point, and there will not be any hesitation about that.\"The most recent inflation data has been mixed. On a monthly basis, the consumer-price index's gauge of core prices, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in April, according to a Labor Department report last week, and rose 6.2% over the previous 12 months.The Fed uses a different gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. April inflation data from that Commerce Department report will be released on May 27. Based on other recently released figures, Wall Street forecasters estimate a more muted rise in inflation using that measure. Economists at Morgan Stanley think core PCE inflation rose by less than 0.3% in April, bringing the 12-month rate of change to 4.8%, from 5.2% in March.\"This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation,\" Mr. Powell said. \"We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. Until we do, we'll keep going.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065913680,"gmtCreate":1652138906140,"gmtModify":1676535036281,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065913680","repostId":"2234688177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065913391,"gmtCreate":1652138887613,"gmtModify":1676535036273,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065913391","repostId":"2234688177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065919765,"gmtCreate":1652138859957,"gmtModify":1676535036265,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065919765","repostId":"2234884616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062880605,"gmtCreate":1652051034907,"gmtModify":1676535017629,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062880605","repostId":"1151523366","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151523366","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652050295,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151523366?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-09 06:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151523366","media":"Barrons","summary":"We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left to report this week. The economic-data highlights of the week will be a pair of inflation measures.</p><p>Monday’s highlights will include BioNTech, Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, and Tyson Foods. Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, and Occidental Petroleum report on Tuesday, followed by Walt Disney,  Rivian Automotive, and Toyota Motoron Wednesday. Brookfield Asset Management and Tapestry will release earnings on Thursday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6917c65c235b29b3cad735f401b18555\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"1450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The economic calendar is headlined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price and producer price indexes for April. Those are forecast to rise by 8.1% and 10.6%, respectively, year over year.</p><p>Other data out this week will include the National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index for April on Tuesday and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for May on Friday.</p><p>Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers a keynote address on U.S. monetary policy at a symposium hosted by the National Association for Business Economics and Deutsche Bundesbank, kicking off a full week for central bank speakers. Markets will be looking for more context and clarity on policy a week after the Fed executed its biggest interest-rate increase since 2000.</p><p><b>Monday 5/9</b></p><p>BioNTech, Duke Energy,Exelon,International Flavors &amp; Fragrances,Microchip Technology,Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, Tyson Foods, and Viatris report quarterly results.</p><p><b>Tuesday 5/10</b></p><p>Dentsply Sirona,Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Occidental Petroleum, Sysco,TransDigm Group,Welltower, and Wynn Resorts announce earnings.</p><p>Dish Network, Fortinet, Mondelez International, and Western Digital hold investor meetings.</p><p><b>The National Federation</b> of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 92.4 reading, about one point less than in March. The March figure is the lowest for the index since April of 2020, as a labor shortage and surging inflation have dampened small-business owners’ enthusiasm.</p><p><b>Wednesday 5/11</b></p><p>Walt Disney reports second-quarter fiscal-2022 results. Shares of the entertainment behemoth have been the worst performer in the DJIA over the past year over concerns about spending on content.</p><p><b>Rivian Automotive,</b> Steris, and Toyota Motor release quarterly results.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b> Statistics releases the consumer price index for April. Expectations are for a 8.1% year-over-year reading, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen jumping 5.9%. This compares with increases of 8.5% and 6.5% respectively, in March. Wall Street is hoping for confirmation that inflation has peaked, even as economists and the Federal Reserve expect inflation to remain much higher for far longer than they did just six months ago.</p><p><b>Thursday 5/12</b></p><p>Brookfield Asset Management, Constellation Energy,Motorola Solutions,and Tapestry hold conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p>Micron Technology and WestRock hold their 2022 investor days.</p><p>Ford Motor,Intel,and Verizon Communicationshost their annual shareholder meetings.</p><p><b>The BLS releases</b> the producer price index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 10.6% year-over-year rise, compared with a 11.2% jump in March, which is the highest on record for index since the 12-month data were first calculated in late 2010. The core PPI is expected to increase 8.9%, after a 9.2% gain in March.</p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 7. In April, jobless claims averaged just 184,000. They recently hit a more-than-five-decade low, despite a workforce that is more than twice as large now as it was then.</p><p><b>Friday 5/13</b></p><p><b>The University of Michigan</b> releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for May. Economists forecast a 63.1 reading, about two point less than in April.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-09 06:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-occidental-rivian-palantir-biontech-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51652036428?mod=hp_LEAD_5><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left to report this week. The economic-data highlights of the week will be a pair of inflation measures....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-occidental-rivian-palantir-biontech-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51652036428?mod=hp_LEAD_5\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼","EA":"艺电","OXY":"西方石油","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","TM":"丰田汽车",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NCLH":"挪威邮轮","BNTX":"BioNTech SE","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","U":"Unity Software Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-occidental-rivian-palantir-biontech-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51652036428?mod=hp_LEAD_5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151523366","content_text":"We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left to report this week. The economic-data highlights of the week will be a pair of inflation measures.Monday’s highlights will include BioNTech, Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, and Tyson Foods. Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, and Occidental Petroleum report on Tuesday, followed by Walt Disney,  Rivian Automotive, and Toyota Motoron Wednesday. Brookfield Asset Management and Tapestry will release earnings on Thursday.The economic calendar is headlined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price and producer price indexes for April. Those are forecast to rise by 8.1% and 10.6%, respectively, year over year.Other data out this week will include the National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index for April on Tuesday and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for May on Friday.Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers a keynote address on U.S. monetary policy at a symposium hosted by the National Association for Business Economics and Deutsche Bundesbank, kicking off a full week for central bank speakers. Markets will be looking for more context and clarity on policy a week after the Fed executed its biggest interest-rate increase since 2000.Monday 5/9BioNTech, Duke Energy,Exelon,International Flavors & Fragrances,Microchip Technology,Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, Tyson Foods, and Viatris report quarterly results.Tuesday 5/10Dentsply Sirona,Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Occidental Petroleum, Sysco,TransDigm Group,Welltower, and Wynn Resorts announce earnings.Dish Network, Fortinet, Mondelez International, and Western Digital hold investor meetings.The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 92.4 reading, about one point less than in March. The March figure is the lowest for the index since April of 2020, as a labor shortage and surging inflation have dampened small-business owners’ enthusiasm.Wednesday 5/11Walt Disney reports second-quarter fiscal-2022 results. Shares of the entertainment behemoth have been the worst performer in the DJIA over the past year over concerns about spending on content.Rivian Automotive, Steris, and Toyota Motor release quarterly results.The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for April. Expectations are for a 8.1% year-over-year reading, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen jumping 5.9%. This compares with increases of 8.5% and 6.5% respectively, in March. Wall Street is hoping for confirmation that inflation has peaked, even as economists and the Federal Reserve expect inflation to remain much higher for far longer than they did just six months ago.Thursday 5/12Brookfield Asset Management, Constellation Energy,Motorola Solutions,and Tapestry hold conference calls to discuss earnings.Micron Technology and WestRock hold their 2022 investor days.Ford Motor,Intel,and Verizon Communicationshost their annual shareholder meetings.The BLS releases the producer price index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 10.6% year-over-year rise, compared with a 11.2% jump in March, which is the highest on record for index since the 12-month data were first calculated in late 2010. The core PPI is expected to increase 8.9%, after a 9.2% gain in March.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 7. In April, jobless claims averaged just 184,000. They recently hit a more-than-five-decade low, despite a workforce that is more than twice as large now as it was then.Friday 5/13The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for May. Economists forecast a 63.1 reading, about two point less than in April.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"EA":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NCLH":0.9,"U":0.9,"BNTX":0.9,"TM":0.9,"OXY":0.9,"PLTR":0.9,"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062880044,"gmtCreate":1652051013188,"gmtModify":1676535017614,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062880044","repostId":"2233559861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2233559861","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1652014810,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2233559861?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-08 21:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The selling wave of U.S. stocks is intensifying. Will this data become a turning point in the market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2233559861","media":"第一财经","summary":"华尔街又经历了动荡的五个交易日。美联储决议并未像3月那样成为短期市场的底部，三大股指延续了4月以来的调整步伐。风险资产抛售潮的背后，是投资者对美国经济软着陆的担忧。市场开始将目光转向了即将公布的消费者","content":"<p><div>Wall Street had another volatile five trading days. The Federal Reserve's decision did not become the bottom of the short-term market as it did in March, and the three major stock indexes continued the pace of adjustment since April. Behind the sell-off of risky assets are investors' worries about a soft landing of the US economy. The market has begun to turn its attention to the upcoming consumer price index (CPI). The impact of the data on inflation expectations may suppress funds' speculation about the path of the rate hike, thus bringing respite to the market that continues to fall. The game of inflation expectations heats up. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is undoubtedly the biggest focus in the near future. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to put the federal...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101405369.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The selling wave of U.S. stocks is intensifying. Will this data become a turning point in the market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe selling wave of U.S. stocks is intensifying. Will this data become a turning point in the market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-08 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Wall Street had another volatile five trading days. The Federal Reserve's decision did not become the bottom of the short-term market as it did in March, and the three major stock indexes continued the pace of adjustment since April. Behind the sell-off of risky assets are investors' worries about a soft landing of the US economy. The market has begun to turn its attention to the upcoming consumer price index (CPI). The impact of the data on inflation expectations may suppress funds' speculation about the path of the rate hike, thus bringing respite to the market that continues to fall. The game of inflation expectations heats up. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is undoubtedly the biggest focus in the near future. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to put the federal...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101405369.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101405369.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/528f1b5f95c1aa85d740d858963e7e8f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101405369.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2233559861","content_text":"华尔街又经历了动荡的五个交易日。美联储决议并未像3月那样成为短期市场的底部，三大股指延续了4月以来的调整步伐。风险资产抛售潮的背后，是投资者对美国经济软着陆的担忧。市场开始将目光转向了即将公布的消费者物价指数（CPI），数据对通胀预期的影响可能会打压资金对于加息路径的猜测，进而为持续下跌的市场带来喘息机会。通胀预期博弈升温美联储议息会议无疑是近期最大焦点，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）决定将联邦基金利率上调至0.75%-1.00%，这也是2000年以来首次加息50个基点。与此同时，缩减资产负债表计划也随之公布，美联储计划在9月将缩表规模提升至950亿美元，这是历史上最快的缩表周期之一。通过收紧货币政策，美联储希望在实现控制通胀的同时，避免经济衰退的发生。在一季度国内生产总值（GDP）意外回落后，本周公布的包括制造业、服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）、贸易逆差等数据，都在显示美国经济动能有进一步放缓的迹象。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，高涨的物价问题仍然是美联储的主要担忧，快速上涨的商品和服务价格，正在侵蚀美国家庭收入，对消费者信心形成了负面影响。考虑到供应链瓶颈和地缘政治因素，美联储想要在政策和经济之间找到平衡点，正面临巨大挑战。货币政策开始对信贷市场产生冲击。房地美上周报告称，30年期抵押贷款利率达到5.27%，比此前一周上升17个基点，为2009年以来的最高水平。从近两周公布的成屋销售、新屋开工等数据看，新一轮加息周期和即将开始的缩表周期，让买房者在不断上涨的房价面前开始望而却步。值得注意的是，美联储加息后，高涨的通胀预期并未随之明显降温。虽然美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上称，并未对75个基点加息“积极考虑”，根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）利率观察工具FedWatch的最新数据，投资者认为6月加息75基点的可能性高达83%，而美联储上一次这么做还是在1994年11月。在外界看来，未来通胀的走向将很大程度上决定美联储的加息路径。最新公布的非农就业报告显示，劳动力市场需求依然强劲，但小时薪资增速较上月有所放缓。施瓦茨认为，随着储蓄率下降和管制措施放松，美国劳动力市场供应增加将给工资增长带来下行压力，这有望印证鲍威尔对“工资-价格螺旋”的风险评估。市场已经把目光转向下周将公布的CPI，如果增速能从此前创造的40年高位回落的话，通胀预期的有效降温可能缓解美联储的政策压力。施瓦茨告诉第一财经记者，他认为75个基点的加息幅度过于激进，更倾向于美联储将在未来两次会议继续加息50个基点，以避免出现政策收紧过快冲击经济的情况。市场反弹是否临近美联储加息周期的冲击波仍在延续，芝加哥期权交易所市场波动性指数（VIX）本周一度冲击年内新高。目前道指已经连跌六周，标普500指数自2011年以来首次出现周线五连阴的情况。科技股持续表现不佳，截至6日收盘，纳指较去年11月历史高点已经回撤近25%。政策预期不断推高美债收益率，基准10年期美债上周一度触及突破3.10%，冲击了其依赖现金流的估值体系。美国投资公司爱德华琼斯(EdwardJones)的投资策略师库尔卡法斯（Angelo Kourkafas）表示：“成长股表现不佳与实际收益率的上升直接相关，而目前实际收益率已经处于正区间。其实问题不仅在于不同利率制度带来的估值压力，还在于相关需求有所提前，这是本财报季相关板块所表现出的主要趋势之一。”市场动荡也打压了投资者情绪。美国个人投资者协会（AAII）最新每周调查显示，个人投资者对未来六个月前景“看跌”的比例上升至59.4%，为2009年以来的最高水平。另一项情绪指标——市场恐惧与贪婪指数已经连续第四周处于恐慌区间。投资者继续抛售各类风险资产。金融市场数据和基础设施提供商路孚特（Refinitiv Lipper）的数据显示，截至5月4日的一周内，美国投资者抛售了价值55.2亿美元的债券基金，连续净卖出达到17周，股票基金净流出37.6亿美元，其中成长型基金卖出39.3亿美元。避险情绪推动下，本周货币市场基金录得净买入26.3亿美元。美股连续调整后，不少资金在衍生品市场上为超跌反弹摩拳擦掌。根据嘉信理财为第一财经记者提供的数据，过去一周，VIX看涨期权和看跌期权未平仓量分别环比增长1.8%和14.7%，与此同时，标普500指数看涨期权未平仓量增长2.6%，看跌期权回落1.5%，两者都显示，投资者在押注短期美股将企稳回升。不过，不少华尔街机构认为，本轮市场调整的低点尚未出现。高盛首席经济学家哈齐乌斯（Jan Hatzius）上周预计，美股将出现震荡下跌的走势。他在报告中写道：“如果我们短期不会出现衰退的预测是正确的，那么今年迄今为止看到的模式可能会继续下去：只要衰退不正式出现，股市就会不断探底反抽，同时利率曲线和大宗商品价格会随着时间的推移继续走高。”文末，让我们看看市场将有哪些重要事件及重要财报吧！下周前瞻 | 美国4月CPI即将揭晓；西方石油、理想汽车财报来袭周一，佛诞翌日，港股休市，美股正常开市。周二起，港股开始交易。经济数据方面，中国4月贸易帐、货币供应数据、美国批发销售数据将公布。周二，经济数据方面，美国4月NFIB小型企业信心指数、中国4月全社会用电量等数据将公布。事件方面，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯将发表讲话。周三，经济数据方面，中国4月CPI/PPI、美国4月CPI等重要经济数据将公布。新股方面，云康集团新股申购结束。周四，经济数据方面，美国4月PPI、美国当周初请失业金人数等数据将公布。周五，经济数据方面，美国4月进口物价指数、5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数等数据将公布。事件方面，2023年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利将就能源和通胀发表讲话。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9066486000,"gmtCreate":1651944590500,"gmtModify":1676535001354,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9066486000","repostId":"2233315662","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9029794656,"gmtCreate":1652830360475,"gmtModify":1676535168419,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029794656","repostId":"2236274480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236274480","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1652828904,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236274480?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236274480","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank's resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn't be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.\"Restoring pr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank&#39;s resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn&#39;t be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.</p><p>&#34;Restoring price stability is a nonnegotiable need. It is something we have to do,&#34; Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal&#39;s Future of Everything Festival. &#34;There could be some pain involved.&#34;</p><p>Mr. Powell said he hoped that the Fed could bring down inflation while preserving a strong labor market, which he said might lead the unemployment rate -- near half-century lows of 3.6% in April -- to rise slightly. &#34;It may not be a perfect labor market,&#34; he said.</p><p>The central bank is raising interest rates as part of its most aggressive effort in decades to curb upward price pressures. Mr. Powell signaled Tuesday that the central bank was likely to follow a half-percentage-point raise earlier this month, to a range between 0.75% and 1%, with similar moves at meetings in June and July. Until this month, the Fed hadn&#39;t raised rates in such intervals since 2000.</p><p>The Fed last year maintained aggressive stimulus to spur a faster labor market recovery. Mr. Powell said Tuesday that it was possible that disruptions from the pandemic had changed the labor market in ways that made current levels of unemployment inconsistent with the Fed&#39;s 2% inflation goal.</p><p>He said that it seemed the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation &#34;is probably well above 3.6%.&#34;</p><p>The Fed chairman repeated his hope that the central bank can curtail high inflation without spurring a large rise in unemployment. However, Mr. Powell said, there is little from modern economic experience to suggest that outcome can be achieved. &#34;If you look in the history book and find it -- no, you can&#39;t,&#34; he said. &#34;I think we are in a world of firsts.&#34;</p><p>Wells Fargo &amp; Co. Chief Executive Charlie Scharf, speaking at the same event Tuesday morning, said it would be difficult to avoid a recession but noted that consumers and businesses remain financially solid.</p><p>&#34;The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, is short and not all that deep,&#34; he said.</p><p>Mr. Powell said he wasn&#39;t at odds with those who believe the Fed faces a difficult path to achieving what is known as a &#34;soft landing,&#34; in which growth slows enough to bring down inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>&#34;I would say there is no disagreement really. It is a challenging task, made more challenging the last couple months because of global events,&#34; he said. &#34;It is challenging because unemployment is very low already and because inflation is very high.&#34;</p><p>Fed officials described higher inflation a year ago as temporary. They backed away from that characterization last fall, as the labor market healed rapidly and price pressures broadened.</p><p>Still, the Fed as recently as January had expected inflation to diminish this spring as supply-chain bottlenecks improved. Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine in late February and rolling Covid-related lockdowns in China created new sources of inflationary pressures.</p><p>&#34;That is going to make it harder for inflation to come down, so it has added a degree of difficulty to what was already a challenging market,&#34; said Mr. Powell.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s stopping point for rate increases isn&#39;t certainty. If inflation doesn&#39;t show signs of diminishing soon, more officials could conclude that rates need to rise closer to 4% over the next 12 to 18 months, rather than to a level around 3% that most of them projected at their policy meeting two months ago.</p><p>&#34;We will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say, &#39;Yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down,&#39;&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We will go to that point, and there will not be any hesitation about that.&#34;</p><p>The most recent inflation data has been mixed. On a monthly basis, the consumer-price index&#39;s gauge of core prices, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in April, according to a Labor Department report last week, and rose 6.2% over the previous 12 months.</p><p>The Fed uses a different gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. April inflation data from that Commerce Department report will be released on May 27. Based on other recently released figures, Wall Street forecasters estimate a more muted rise in inflation using that measure. Economists at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> think core PCE inflation rose by less than 0.3% in April, bringing the 12-month rate of change to 4.8%, from 5.2% in March.</p><p>&#34;This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation,&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. Until we do, we&#39;ll keep going.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-18 07:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank&#39;s resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn&#39;t be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.</p><p>&#34;Restoring price stability is a nonnegotiable need. It is something we have to do,&#34; Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal&#39;s Future of Everything Festival. &#34;There could be some pain involved.&#34;</p><p>Mr. Powell said he hoped that the Fed could bring down inflation while preserving a strong labor market, which he said might lead the unemployment rate -- near half-century lows of 3.6% in April -- to rise slightly. &#34;It may not be a perfect labor market,&#34; he said.</p><p>The central bank is raising interest rates as part of its most aggressive effort in decades to curb upward price pressures. Mr. Powell signaled Tuesday that the central bank was likely to follow a half-percentage-point raise earlier this month, to a range between 0.75% and 1%, with similar moves at meetings in June and July. Until this month, the Fed hadn&#39;t raised rates in such intervals since 2000.</p><p>The Fed last year maintained aggressive stimulus to spur a faster labor market recovery. Mr. Powell said Tuesday that it was possible that disruptions from the pandemic had changed the labor market in ways that made current levels of unemployment inconsistent with the Fed&#39;s 2% inflation goal.</p><p>He said that it seemed the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation &#34;is probably well above 3.6%.&#34;</p><p>The Fed chairman repeated his hope that the central bank can curtail high inflation without spurring a large rise in unemployment. However, Mr. Powell said, there is little from modern economic experience to suggest that outcome can be achieved. &#34;If you look in the history book and find it -- no, you can&#39;t,&#34; he said. &#34;I think we are in a world of firsts.&#34;</p><p>Wells Fargo &amp; Co. Chief Executive Charlie Scharf, speaking at the same event Tuesday morning, said it would be difficult to avoid a recession but noted that consumers and businesses remain financially solid.</p><p>&#34;The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, is short and not all that deep,&#34; he said.</p><p>Mr. Powell said he wasn&#39;t at odds with those who believe the Fed faces a difficult path to achieving what is known as a &#34;soft landing,&#34; in which growth slows enough to bring down inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>&#34;I would say there is no disagreement really. It is a challenging task, made more challenging the last couple months because of global events,&#34; he said. &#34;It is challenging because unemployment is very low already and because inflation is very high.&#34;</p><p>Fed officials described higher inflation a year ago as temporary. They backed away from that characterization last fall, as the labor market healed rapidly and price pressures broadened.</p><p>Still, the Fed as recently as January had expected inflation to diminish this spring as supply-chain bottlenecks improved. Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine in late February and rolling Covid-related lockdowns in China created new sources of inflationary pressures.</p><p>&#34;That is going to make it harder for inflation to come down, so it has added a degree of difficulty to what was already a challenging market,&#34; said Mr. Powell.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s stopping point for rate increases isn&#39;t certainty. If inflation doesn&#39;t show signs of diminishing soon, more officials could conclude that rates need to rise closer to 4% over the next 12 to 18 months, rather than to a level around 3% that most of them projected at their policy meeting two months ago.</p><p>&#34;We will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say, &#39;Yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down,&#39;&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We will go to that point, and there will not be any hesitation about that.&#34;</p><p>The most recent inflation data has been mixed. On a monthly basis, the consumer-price index&#39;s gauge of core prices, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in April, according to a Labor Department report last week, and rose 6.2% over the previous 12 months.</p><p>The Fed uses a different gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. April inflation data from that Commerce Department report will be released on May 27. Based on other recently released figures, Wall Street forecasters estimate a more muted rise in inflation using that measure. Economists at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> think core PCE inflation rose by less than 0.3% in April, bringing the 12-month rate of change to 4.8%, from 5.2% in March.</p><p>&#34;This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation,&#34; Mr. Powell said. &#34;We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. Until we do, we&#39;ll keep going.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236274480","content_text":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank's resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn't be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.\"Restoring price stability is a nonnegotiable need. It is something we have to do,\" Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal's Future of Everything Festival. \"There could be some pain involved.\"Mr. Powell said he hoped that the Fed could bring down inflation while preserving a strong labor market, which he said might lead the unemployment rate -- near half-century lows of 3.6% in April -- to rise slightly. \"It may not be a perfect labor market,\" he said.The central bank is raising interest rates as part of its most aggressive effort in decades to curb upward price pressures. Mr. Powell signaled Tuesday that the central bank was likely to follow a half-percentage-point raise earlier this month, to a range between 0.75% and 1%, with similar moves at meetings in June and July. Until this month, the Fed hadn't raised rates in such intervals since 2000.The Fed last year maintained aggressive stimulus to spur a faster labor market recovery. Mr. Powell said Tuesday that it was possible that disruptions from the pandemic had changed the labor market in ways that made current levels of unemployment inconsistent with the Fed's 2% inflation goal.He said that it seemed the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation \"is probably well above 3.6%.\"The Fed chairman repeated his hope that the central bank can curtail high inflation without spurring a large rise in unemployment. However, Mr. Powell said, there is little from modern economic experience to suggest that outcome can be achieved. \"If you look in the history book and find it -- no, you can't,\" he said. \"I think we are in a world of firsts.\"Wells Fargo & Co. Chief Executive Charlie Scharf, speaking at the same event Tuesday morning, said it would be difficult to avoid a recession but noted that consumers and businesses remain financially solid.\"The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is one, is short and not all that deep,\" he said.Mr. Powell said he wasn't at odds with those who believe the Fed faces a difficult path to achieving what is known as a \"soft landing,\" in which growth slows enough to bring down inflation without triggering a recession.\"I would say there is no disagreement really. It is a challenging task, made more challenging the last couple months because of global events,\" he said. \"It is challenging because unemployment is very low already and because inflation is very high.\"Fed officials described higher inflation a year ago as temporary. They backed away from that characterization last fall, as the labor market healed rapidly and price pressures broadened.Still, the Fed as recently as January had expected inflation to diminish this spring as supply-chain bottlenecks improved. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February and rolling Covid-related lockdowns in China created new sources of inflationary pressures.\"That is going to make it harder for inflation to come down, so it has added a degree of difficulty to what was already a challenging market,\" said Mr. Powell.The Fed's stopping point for rate increases isn't certainty. If inflation doesn't show signs of diminishing soon, more officials could conclude that rates need to rise closer to 4% over the next 12 to 18 months, rather than to a level around 3% that most of them projected at their policy meeting two months ago.\"We will go until we feel like we are at a place where we can say, 'Yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down,'\" Mr. Powell said. \"We will go to that point, and there will not be any hesitation about that.\"The most recent inflation data has been mixed. On a monthly basis, the consumer-price index's gauge of core prices, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in April, according to a Labor Department report last week, and rose 6.2% over the previous 12 months.The Fed uses a different gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. April inflation data from that Commerce Department report will be released on May 27. Based on other recently released figures, Wall Street forecasters estimate a more muted rise in inflation using that measure. Economists at Morgan Stanley think core PCE inflation rose by less than 0.3% in April, bringing the 12-month rate of change to 4.8%, from 5.2% in March.\"This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation,\" Mr. Powell said. \"We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. Until we do, we'll keep going.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054679887,"gmtCreate":1655388036349,"gmtModify":1676535627987,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054679887","repostId":"1118727036","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118727036","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655386410,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118727036?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-16 21:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118727036","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made in the previous session.</p><p>Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%, or 460 points. S&amp;P 500 futures were down 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 2%. All three futures contracts had earlier been trading in positive territory.</p><p>The 10-year Treasury yield resumed its massive June run on Thursday, reversing higher overnight. The 10-year yield was last around 3.44% after ending May at 2.84%.</p><p>Those moves come after the Federal Reserve implemented its largest interest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by75 basis points, as was widely anticipated.</p><p>“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.</p><p>Stocks took a leg higher Wednesday after Powell said that a 50 or 75 basis point increase “seems most likely”at the next meeting in July, indicating the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation. Powell did caution, however, that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”</p><p>The major averages ended the session higher, with the Dow and S&amp;P 500 both snapping five-day losing streaks. The 30-stock benchmark added about 304 points, or 1%, while the S&amp;P 500 advanced 1.46%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, rising 2.5%.</p><p>However, market sentiment appeared to sour once again Thursday as other central banks around the globe adopted more aggressive policy stances and investors questioned whether the Fed can pull off a soft landing.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank overnight raised rates for the first time in 15 years. The Bank of England was set on Thursday to raise rates for the fifth straight time.</p><p>“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things whether it’s investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense,” Allianz chief investment advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We are exiting that regime and it’s going to be bumpy.”</p><p>Tech shares moved lower in premarket trading following Wednesday’s bounce, with Tesla, PayPal, Nvidia, Amazon and Netflix all down more than 3%.</p><p>“There is an astonishing level of tech selling right now,” wrote CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a tweet Thursday. “It is breathtaking to watch as sellers are sending the best techs down gigantically at 5 a.m.”</p><p>Travel stocks including United, Delta and Carnival also took a leg lower.</p><p>Data out Thursday further indicated a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. Housing starts dropped 14% in May, topping the 2.6% decline expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June came in with a negative 3.3 reading, its first contraction since May 2020</p><p>The major averages entered Thursday’s session down for the week and well below record levels.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 21% and 32% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meantime, is 17% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.</p><p>Rampant inflation, which is at the highest level in 40 years, has weighed on the major averages, as have fears around slowing economic growth and the possibility of a recession.</p><p>Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson warned that the inflation problem won’t be solved overnight.</p><p>“It also raises the risk of a recession because you’re bringing forward rate hikes even faster, and I don’t think it’s going to help the bond market,” he said on CNBC’s“Closing Bell.”</p><p>Economic data out Thursday includes weekly jobless claims numbers, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a 220,000 print. Housing starts will also be released, whileAdobeandKrogerwill report quarterly updates.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow Tumbles 500 Points, Reversing Wednesday’S Gains on Rising Recession Fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-16 21:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made in the previous session.</p><p>Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%, or 460 points. S&amp;P 500 futures were down 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 2%. All three futures contracts had earlier been trading in positive territory.</p><p>The 10-year Treasury yield resumed its massive June run on Thursday, reversing higher overnight. The 10-year yield was last around 3.44% after ending May at 2.84%.</p><p>Those moves come after the Federal Reserve implemented its largest interest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by75 basis points, as was widely anticipated.</p><p>“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.</p><p>Stocks took a leg higher Wednesday after Powell said that a 50 or 75 basis point increase “seems most likely”at the next meeting in July, indicating the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation. Powell did caution, however, that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”</p><p>The major averages ended the session higher, with the Dow and S&amp;P 500 both snapping five-day losing streaks. The 30-stock benchmark added about 304 points, or 1%, while the S&amp;P 500 advanced 1.46%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, rising 2.5%.</p><p>However, market sentiment appeared to sour once again Thursday as other central banks around the globe adopted more aggressive policy stances and investors questioned whether the Fed can pull off a soft landing.</p><p>The Swiss National Bank overnight raised rates for the first time in 15 years. The Bank of England was set on Thursday to raise rates for the fifth straight time.</p><p>“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things whether it’s investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense,” Allianz chief investment advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We are exiting that regime and it’s going to be bumpy.”</p><p>Tech shares moved lower in premarket trading following Wednesday’s bounce, with Tesla, PayPal, Nvidia, Amazon and Netflix all down more than 3%.</p><p>“There is an astonishing level of tech selling right now,” wrote CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a tweet Thursday. “It is breathtaking to watch as sellers are sending the best techs down gigantically at 5 a.m.”</p><p>Travel stocks including United, Delta and Carnival also took a leg lower.</p><p>Data out Thursday further indicated a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. Housing starts dropped 14% in May, topping the 2.6% decline expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June came in with a negative 3.3 reading, its first contraction since May 2020</p><p>The major averages entered Thursday’s session down for the week and well below record levels.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 21% and 32% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meantime, is 17% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.</p><p>Rampant inflation, which is at the highest level in 40 years, has weighed on the major averages, as have fears around slowing economic growth and the possibility of a recession.</p><p>Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson warned that the inflation problem won’t be solved overnight.</p><p>“It also raises the risk of a recession because you’re bringing forward rate hikes even faster, and I don’t think it’s going to help the bond market,” he said on CNBC’s“Closing Bell.”</p><p>Economic data out Thursday includes weekly jobless claims numbers, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a 220,000 print. Housing starts will also be released, whileAdobeandKrogerwill report quarterly updates.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118727036","content_text":"U.S. stocks were under pressure Thursday, putting the major averages to give up the solid gains made in the previous session.Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%, or 460 points. S&P 500 futures were down 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 2%. All three futures contracts had earlier been trading in positive territory.The 10-year Treasury yield resumed its massive June run on Thursday, reversing higher overnight. The 10-year yield was last around 3.44% after ending May at 2.84%.Those moves come after the Federal Reserve implemented its largest interest rate hike since 1994 on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by75 basis points, as was widely anticipated.“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision.Stocks took a leg higher Wednesday after Powell said that a 50 or 75 basis point increase “seems most likely”at the next meeting in July, indicating the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation. Powell did caution, however, that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”The major averages ended the session higher, with the Dow and S&P 500 both snapping five-day losing streaks. The 30-stock benchmark added about 304 points, or 1%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.46%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, rising 2.5%.However, market sentiment appeared to sour once again Thursday as other central banks around the globe adopted more aggressive policy stances and investors questioned whether the Fed can pull off a soft landing.The Swiss National Bank overnight raised rates for the first time in 15 years. The Bank of England was set on Thursday to raise rates for the fifth straight time.“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things whether it’s investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense,” Allianz chief investment advisor Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We are exiting that regime and it’s going to be bumpy.”Tech shares moved lower in premarket trading following Wednesday’s bounce, with Tesla, PayPal, Nvidia, Amazon and Netflix all down more than 3%.“There is an astonishing level of tech selling right now,” wrote CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a tweet Thursday. “It is breathtaking to watch as sellers are sending the best techs down gigantically at 5 a.m.”Travel stocks including United, Delta and Carnival also took a leg lower.Data out Thursday further indicated a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. Housing starts dropped 14% in May, topping the 2.6% decline expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June came in with a negative 3.3 reading, its first contraction since May 2020The major averages entered Thursday’s session down for the week and well below record levels.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 21% and 32% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meantime, is 17% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.Rampant inflation, which is at the highest level in 40 years, has weighed on the major averages, as have fears around slowing economic growth and the possibility of a recession.Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson warned that the inflation problem won’t be solved overnight.“It also raises the risk of a recession because you’re bringing forward rate hikes even faster, and I don’t think it’s going to help the bond market,” he said on CNBC’s“Closing Bell.”Economic data out Thursday includes weekly jobless claims numbers, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a 220,000 print. Housing starts will also be released, whileAdobeandKrogerwill report quarterly updates.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065913680,"gmtCreate":1652138906140,"gmtModify":1676535036281,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065913680","repostId":"2234688177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153459617,"gmtCreate":1625044543839,"gmtModify":1703850788785,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153459617","repostId":"1100844519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100844519","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624850864,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100844519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's return, Hong Kong stocks will be closed on July 1","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100844519","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据悉，因7月1日（周四）香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日。具体安排如下：港股\n7月1日（周四）休市一日。7月2日（周五）照常开市。\n美股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡市场等照常交易。\n沪股通、深股通","content":"<p>It is reported that due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on July 1 (Thursday), the Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day. The specific arrangement is as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa05e0ac274f01336380bf4d575542d\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed for one day on July 1 (Thursday). The market will open as usual on July 2nd (Friday).</p><p><b>U.S. stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks, Singapore markets, etc. are trading as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available from June 30th (Wednesday) to July 1st (Thursday), and will be open as usual from July 2nd (Friday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available on July 1st (Thursday), but will be open as usual from July 2nd (Friday).</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's return, Hong Kong stocks will be closed on July 1</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's return, Hong Kong stocks will be closed on July 1\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 11:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is reported that due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on July 1 (Thursday), the Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day. The specific arrangement is as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa05e0ac274f01336380bf4d575542d\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed for one day on July 1 (Thursday). The market will open as usual on July 2nd (Friday).</p><p><b>U.S. stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks, Singapore markets, etc. are trading as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available from June 30th (Wednesday) to July 1st (Thursday), and will be open as usual from July 2nd (Friday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available on July 1st (Thursday), but will be open as usual from July 2nd (Friday).</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6adcf1f575211fc4f9ca7f666658417","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100844519","content_text":"据悉，因7月1日（周四）香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日。具体安排如下：港股\n7月1日（周四）休市一日。7月2日（周五）照常开市。\n美股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡市场等照常交易。\n沪股通、深股通：\n6月30日（周三）至7月1日（周四）不提供服务，7月2日（周五）起照常开通。\n港股通：\n7月1日（周四）不提供服务，7月2日（周五）起照常开通。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125410743,"gmtCreate":1624685191382,"gmtModify":1703843636719,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125410743","repostId":"2146005842","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2146005842","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624668303,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2146005842?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-26 08:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"New Stock News | Yacht International Holdings Co., Ltd. submitted a form to the Growth Enterprise Market of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, mainly engaged in the first-hand yacht sales of luxury and mid-to-high-end brands","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146005842","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，据港交所6月25日披露，游艇国际控股有限公司向港交所创业板递交上市申请，独家保荐人为新华汇富旗下汇富融资有限公司。公司是以香港为基地的游艇经销集团，主要从事豪华及中高端品牌的一手游艇销售。公司亦从事二手游艇及其他配套配件销售及提供全面的增值服务，包括保养及维修服务。公司在香港设有一个销售办事处以推广最新型号游艇来吸引潜在客户及促进游艇销售。","content":"<p><html><body>Zhitong Finance APP learned that according to the disclosure of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 25, Yacht International Holdings Co., Ltd. submitted a listing application to the Growth Enterprise Market of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and the sole sponsor was Huifu Capital Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Xinhua Huifu.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210626/1624667864475917.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1624667864475917.png\"/></center>The company started distributing yachts in Hong Kong in 2014. Since 2014 and 2015, the<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">Luxurious</a>The motor yacht brands are Absolute and Azimut, which are among the few internationally renowned luxury motor yacht brands. The company is a yacht distribution group based in Hong Kong, mainly engaged in the first-hand yacht sales of luxury and high-end brands. The company is also engaged in the sale of used yachts and other ancillary accessories and the provision of comprehensive value-added services, including maintenance and repair services. During the Track Record Period, the company's yacht sales were basically all carried out in Hong Kong, and the company was able to expand its sales network to Singapore, Taiwan and Shenzhen. The company has a balanced product portfolio, providing a wide range of products such as luxury motor yachts, sports boats and inflatable boats to attract a wide range of customers. The company has a sales office in Hong Kong to promote the latest yacht models to attract potential customers and promote yacht sales. The company's customers are mainly individuals (product end users) with high disposable income in Hong Kong and a number of enterprises.</p><p>As at the Latest Practicable Date, the Company's brand portfolio included two luxury brands-Absolute and Azimut and two mid-to-high-end brands-Four Winns and Zar Formenti. In FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021, the sales of first-hand Absolute luxury motor yachts were HK $47.3 million, HK $32.7 million and HK $60.1 million, accounting for approximately 19.2%, 12.9% and 13.0% of the company's revenue respectively; In fiscal year 2019, fiscal year 2020 and fiscal year 2021, the sales of first-hand Azimut luxury motor yachts were HK $181.4 million, HK $195.4 million and HK $325 million, accounting for approximately 73.5%, 77.1% and 70.5% of the company's revenue respectively;</p><p>In fiscal year 2019, fiscal year 2020 and fiscal year 2021, the company's sales to its five largest customers were approximately HK $163.3 million, HK $193.1 million and HK $222.2 million respectively, accounting for 66.2%, 76.1% and 48.3% of total revenue; And the annual sales to the largest customer in the relevant year were HK $79.6 million, HK $62.6 million and HK $91.2 million respectively, accounting for 32.3%, 24.7% and 19.8% of the total revenue.</p><p>During the Track Record Period, the Company's revenue was derived from (i) sales of yachts and related components; And (ii) service income. Revenue was HK $246.7 million, HK $253.6 million and HK $461.2 million for FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021, respectively. The gross profit for the same year was HK $34.15 million, HK $38.97 million and HK $57.97 million respectively.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210626/1624667847635417.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1624667847635417.png\"/></p><p></center></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Stock News | Yacht International Holdings Co., Ltd. submitted a form to the Growth Enterprise Market of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, mainly engaged in the first-hand yacht sales of luxury and mid-to-high-end brands</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Stock News | Yacht International Holdings Co., Ltd. submitted a form to the Growth Enterprise Market of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, mainly engaged in the first-hand yacht sales of luxury and mid-to-high-end brands\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-26 08:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Zhitong Finance APP learned that according to the disclosure of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 25, Yacht International Holdings Co., Ltd. submitted a listing application to the Growth Enterprise Market of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and the sole sponsor was Huifu Capital Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Xinhua Huifu.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210626/1624667864475917.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1624667864475917.png\"/></center>The company started distributing yachts in Hong Kong in 2014. Since 2014 and 2015, the<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">Luxurious</a>The motor yacht brands are Absolute and Azimut, which are among the few internationally renowned luxury motor yacht brands. The company is a yacht distribution group based in Hong Kong, mainly engaged in the first-hand yacht sales of luxury and high-end brands. The company is also engaged in the sale of used yachts and other ancillary accessories and the provision of comprehensive value-added services, including maintenance and repair services. During the Track Record Period, the company's yacht sales were basically all carried out in Hong Kong, and the company was able to expand its sales network to Singapore, Taiwan and Shenzhen. The company has a balanced product portfolio, providing a wide range of products such as luxury motor yachts, sports boats and inflatable boats to attract a wide range of customers. The company has a sales office in Hong Kong to promote the latest yacht models to attract potential customers and promote yacht sales. The company's customers are mainly individuals (product end users) with high disposable income in Hong Kong and a number of enterprises.</p><p>As at the Latest Practicable Date, the Company's brand portfolio included two luxury brands-Absolute and Azimut and two mid-to-high-end brands-Four Winns and Zar Formenti. In FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021, the sales of first-hand Absolute luxury motor yachts were HK $47.3 million, HK $32.7 million and HK $60.1 million, accounting for approximately 19.2%, 12.9% and 13.0% of the company's revenue respectively; In fiscal year 2019, fiscal year 2020 and fiscal year 2021, the sales of first-hand Azimut luxury motor yachts were HK $181.4 million, HK $195.4 million and HK $325 million, accounting for approximately 73.5%, 77.1% and 70.5% of the company's revenue respectively;</p><p>In fiscal year 2019, fiscal year 2020 and fiscal year 2021, the company's sales to its five largest customers were approximately HK $163.3 million, HK $193.1 million and HK $222.2 million respectively, accounting for 66.2%, 76.1% and 48.3% of total revenue; And the annual sales to the largest customer in the relevant year were HK $79.6 million, HK $62.6 million and HK $91.2 million respectively, accounting for 32.3%, 24.7% and 19.8% of the total revenue.</p><p>During the Track Record Period, the Company's revenue was derived from (i) sales of yachts and related components; And (ii) service income. Revenue was HK $246.7 million, HK $253.6 million and HK $461.2 million for FY2019, FY2020 and FY2021, respectively. The gross profit for the same year was HK $34.15 million, HK $38.97 million and HK $57.97 million respectively.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210626/1624667847635417.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1624667847635417.png\"/></p><p></center></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/501817.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0d8d07bb7c07ed67df2bae10160584","relate_stocks":{"159915":"创业板","399006":"创业板指","DLX":"豪华","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/501817.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146005842","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，据港交所6月25日披露，游艇国际控股有限公司向港交所创业板递交上市申请，独家保荐人为新华汇富旗下汇富融资有限公司。该公司于2014年开始在香港经销游艇。自2014年及2015年起，公司代理的豪华机动游艇品牌分别为Absolute及Azimut(为少数国际知名豪华机动游艇品牌)。公司是以香港为基地的游艇经销集团，主要从事豪华及中高端品牌的一手游艇销售。公司亦从事二手游艇及其他配套配件销售及提供全面的增值服务，包括保养及维修服务。于往绩期间，公司的游艇销售基本上全部于香港进行，且公司能够将销售网络扩展至新加坡、中国台湾及深圳。公司拥有均衡的产品组合，提供豪华机动游艇、运动艇及充气船等各式各样的产品，以吸纳广泛客户。公司在香港设有一个销售办事处以推广最新型号游艇来吸引潜在客户及促进游艇销售。公司的客户主要为在香港拥有高可支配收入的个人(产品终端用户)以及多间企业。于最后可行日期，公司的品牌组合包括两个豪华品牌 — Absolute及Azimut以及两个中高端品牌 — Four Winns及Zar  Formenti。于2019财政年度、2020财政年度及2021财政年度，一手Absolute豪华机动游艇的销售额为4730万港元、3270万港元及6010万港元，分别占公司收益的约19.2%、12.9%及13.0%;于2019财政年度、2020财政年度及2021财政年度，一手Azimut豪华机动游艇的销售额为1.814亿港元、1.954亿港元及3.25亿港元，分别占公司收益的约73.5%、77.1%及70.5%;于2019财政年度、2020财政年度及2021财政年度，公司向五大客户的销售分别为约1.633亿港元、1.931亿港元及2.222亿港元，占总收益66.2%、76.1%及48.3%;以及于相关年度每年向最大客户的销售分别为7960万港元、6260万港元及9120万港元，占总收益32.3%、24.7%及19.8%。于往绩期间，公司的收益源于(i)销售游艇及相关部件;及(ii)服务收入。于2019财政年度、2020财政年度及2021财政年度，收益分别为2.467亿港元、2.536亿港元及4.612亿港元。同年的毛利分别为3415万港元、3897万港元及5797万港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159915":1,"399006":1,"DLX":1,"000001.SH":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021517291,"gmtCreate":1653086610813,"gmtModify":1676535219267,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021517291","repostId":"1190645914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190645914","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653060803,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190645914?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 23:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stocks Opened Higher and Went Lower in Morning Trading, Nasdaq Slid Nearly 1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190645914","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&P","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500 slid 0.69% and 0.74% separately. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2e636433516c77f04710dd7e29052\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"122\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks Opened Higher and Went Lower in Morning Trading, Nasdaq Slid Nearly 1%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stocks Opened Higher and Went Lower in Morning Trading, Nasdaq Slid Nearly 1%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-20 23:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500 slid 0.69% and 0.74% separately. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2e636433516c77f04710dd7e29052\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"122\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190645914","content_text":"U.S. stocks opened higher and went lower in morning trading. Nasdaq slid 0.91%, while Dow Jones, S&P 500 slid 0.69% and 0.74% separately.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065913391,"gmtCreate":1652138887613,"gmtModify":1676535036273,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065913391","repostId":"2234688177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062880605,"gmtCreate":1652051034907,"gmtModify":1676535017629,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062880605","repostId":"1151523366","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151523366","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652050295,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151523366?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-09 06:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151523366","media":"Barrons","summary":"We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left to report this week. The economic-data highlights of the week will be a pair of inflation measures.</p><p>Monday’s highlights will include BioNTech, Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, and Tyson Foods. Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, and Occidental Petroleum report on Tuesday, followed by Walt Disney,  Rivian Automotive, and Toyota Motoron Wednesday. Brookfield Asset Management and Tapestry will release earnings on Thursday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6917c65c235b29b3cad735f401b18555\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"1450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The economic calendar is headlined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price and producer price indexes for April. Those are forecast to rise by 8.1% and 10.6%, respectively, year over year.</p><p>Other data out this week will include the National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index for April on Tuesday and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for May on Friday.</p><p>Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers a keynote address on U.S. monetary policy at a symposium hosted by the National Association for Business Economics and Deutsche Bundesbank, kicking off a full week for central bank speakers. Markets will be looking for more context and clarity on policy a week after the Fed executed its biggest interest-rate increase since 2000.</p><p><b>Monday 5/9</b></p><p>BioNTech, Duke Energy,Exelon,International Flavors &amp; Fragrances,Microchip Technology,Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, Tyson Foods, and Viatris report quarterly results.</p><p><b>Tuesday 5/10</b></p><p>Dentsply Sirona,Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Occidental Petroleum, Sysco,TransDigm Group,Welltower, and Wynn Resorts announce earnings.</p><p>Dish Network, Fortinet, Mondelez International, and Western Digital hold investor meetings.</p><p><b>The National Federation</b> of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 92.4 reading, about one point less than in March. The March figure is the lowest for the index since April of 2020, as a labor shortage and surging inflation have dampened small-business owners’ enthusiasm.</p><p><b>Wednesday 5/11</b></p><p>Walt Disney reports second-quarter fiscal-2022 results. Shares of the entertainment behemoth have been the worst performer in the DJIA over the past year over concerns about spending on content.</p><p><b>Rivian Automotive,</b> Steris, and Toyota Motor release quarterly results.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b> Statistics releases the consumer price index for April. Expectations are for a 8.1% year-over-year reading, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen jumping 5.9%. This compares with increases of 8.5% and 6.5% respectively, in March. Wall Street is hoping for confirmation that inflation has peaked, even as economists and the Federal Reserve expect inflation to remain much higher for far longer than they did just six months ago.</p><p><b>Thursday 5/12</b></p><p>Brookfield Asset Management, Constellation Energy,Motorola Solutions,and Tapestry hold conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p>Micron Technology and WestRock hold their 2022 investor days.</p><p>Ford Motor,Intel,and Verizon Communicationshost their annual shareholder meetings.</p><p><b>The BLS releases</b> the producer price index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 10.6% year-over-year rise, compared with a 11.2% jump in March, which is the highest on record for index since the 12-month data were first calculated in late 2010. The core PPI is expected to increase 8.9%, after a 9.2% gain in March.</p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 7. In April, jobless claims averaged just 184,000. They recently hit a more-than-five-decade low, despite a workforce that is more than twice as large now as it was then.</p><p><b>Friday 5/13</b></p><p><b>The University of Michigan</b> releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for May. Economists forecast a 63.1 reading, about two point less than in April.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, BioNTech, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-09 06:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-occidental-rivian-palantir-biontech-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51652036428?mod=hp_LEAD_5><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left to report this week. The economic-data highlights of the week will be a pair of inflation measures....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-occidental-rivian-palantir-biontech-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51652036428?mod=hp_LEAD_5\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼","EA":"艺电","OXY":"西方石油","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","TM":"丰田汽车",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NCLH":"挪威邮轮","BNTX":"BioNTech SE","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","U":"Unity Software Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-occidental-rivian-palantir-biontech-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51652036428?mod=hp_LEAD_5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151523366","content_text":"We’re past the peak of first-quarter earnings season, but with several notable companies still left to report this week. The economic-data highlights of the week will be a pair of inflation measures.Monday’s highlights will include BioNTech, Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, and Tyson Foods. Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, and Occidental Petroleum report on Tuesday, followed by Walt Disney,  Rivian Automotive, and Toyota Motoron Wednesday. Brookfield Asset Management and Tapestry will release earnings on Thursday.The economic calendar is headlined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price and producer price indexes for April. Those are forecast to rise by 8.1% and 10.6%, respectively, year over year.Other data out this week will include the National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index for April on Tuesday and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for May on Friday.Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers a keynote address on U.S. monetary policy at a symposium hosted by the National Association for Business Economics and Deutsche Bundesbank, kicking off a full week for central bank speakers. Markets will be looking for more context and clarity on policy a week after the Fed executed its biggest interest-rate increase since 2000.Monday 5/9BioNTech, Duke Energy,Exelon,International Flavors & Fragrances,Microchip Technology,Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, Tyson Foods, and Viatris report quarterly results.Tuesday 5/10Dentsply Sirona,Electronic Arts, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Occidental Petroleum, Sysco,TransDigm Group,Welltower, and Wynn Resorts announce earnings.Dish Network, Fortinet, Mondelez International, and Western Digital hold investor meetings.The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 92.4 reading, about one point less than in March. The March figure is the lowest for the index since April of 2020, as a labor shortage and surging inflation have dampened small-business owners’ enthusiasm.Wednesday 5/11Walt Disney reports second-quarter fiscal-2022 results. Shares of the entertainment behemoth have been the worst performer in the DJIA over the past year over concerns about spending on content.Rivian Automotive, Steris, and Toyota Motor release quarterly results.The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for April. Expectations are for a 8.1% year-over-year reading, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen jumping 5.9%. This compares with increases of 8.5% and 6.5% respectively, in March. Wall Street is hoping for confirmation that inflation has peaked, even as economists and the Federal Reserve expect inflation to remain much higher for far longer than they did just six months ago.Thursday 5/12Brookfield Asset Management, Constellation Energy,Motorola Solutions,and Tapestry hold conference calls to discuss earnings.Micron Technology and WestRock hold their 2022 investor days.Ford Motor,Intel,and Verizon Communicationshost their annual shareholder meetings.The BLS releases the producer price index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 10.6% year-over-year rise, compared with a 11.2% jump in March, which is the highest on record for index since the 12-month data were first calculated in late 2010. The core PPI is expected to increase 8.9%, after a 9.2% gain in March.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 7. In April, jobless claims averaged just 184,000. They recently hit a more-than-five-decade low, despite a workforce that is more than twice as large now as it was then.Friday 5/13The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for May. Economists forecast a 63.1 reading, about two point less than in April.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"EA":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NCLH":0.9,"U":0.9,"BNTX":0.9,"TM":0.9,"OXY":0.9,"PLTR":0.9,"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063409412,"gmtCreate":1651502244629,"gmtModify":1676534917086,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ji","listText":"ji","text":"ji","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063409412","repostId":"2232733784","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2232733784","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济-金融-投资","home_visible":1,"media_name":"李迅雷金融与投资","id":"71","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1"},"pubTimestamp":1651449428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2232733784?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-02 07:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What need to be worried about shrinking balance sheet?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2232733784","media":"李迅雷金融与投资","summary":"5月美联储议息会议召开在即，除去加息之外，很可能会公布关于美联储缩表的路径、方式等细节内容。那么，在疫情后时代的环境之下，美联储本轮缩表与上轮有何不同？又会怎样影响经济和资本市场？本报告对此进行展开分","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May is about to be held. In addition to rate hike, it is likely that details such as the path and method of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet will be announced. So, in the environment of the post-epidemic era, how is this round of Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the previous round? How will it affect the economy and capital markets? This report analyzes this.</b><b>summary</b></p><p><ul><li><b>What's different about shrinking balance sheet this time? First</b>From the perspective of the causes of monetary tightening, this round of rate hike's shrinking balance sheet is mainly driven by inflation.<b>Next</b>From the perspective of global monetary policy trends, before the last round of shrinking balance sheet, except for a few emerging market rate hike, the world's major economies did not see significant tightening. Before this round of shrinking balance sheet, most central banks around the world accelerated their monetary tightening process.<b>Third</b>From the perspective of the coordination of the two monetary policy tightening methods in rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the synergy between the two in shrinking balance sheet is higher this time.<b>Fourth</b>From the perspective of implementation, this round of shrinking balance sheet is mainly passive, but it may actively sell some unexpired MBS.<b>Fifth</b>Judging from the speed of shrinking balance sheet, the pace of this round of advancement has obviously accelerated, and the interval between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet may drop from 22 months in the previous round to 2 months.<b>Sixth</b>From the perspective of intensity, the proportion of the target scale of this reduction in GDP has increased significantly compared with the previous round.<b>Seventh</b>From the perspective of preventing and responding to the impact of the shrinking balance sheet, this time the Federal Reserve has set up a standing repurchase facility tool in advance to ensure sufficient market liquidity as much as possible.<b>in the end</b>From the perspective of the total scale of shrinking balance sheet, we estimate that this round of shrinking balance sheet will reach approximately 1.63 trillion yuan, far exceeding the previous round, and will last for approximately 18 months until the end of 2023.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li><b>How does shrinking balance sheet affect the liquidity environment?</b>There are three major transmission paths for the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet on interest rates.<b>On the one hand</b>, by<b>Reduce the scale of reserves on the liability side</b>Reduce the money supply (quantity).<b>On the other hand</b>, by<b>Release policy signals and rebalance asset portfolios</b>The way to push up interest rates (prices). Shrinking balance sheet will also push up short-term interest rates to a certain extent, while the effect on long-term interest rates is more obvious. We predict that this round of shrinking balance sheet will push up the yield of ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond by about 0.4 percentage points every year. although<b>Shrinking balance sheet will significantly reduce liquidity levels, but the liquidity crisis may not reappear in the short term</b>。<b>On the one hand</b>, the existing liquidity of the market is relatively high.<b>On the other hand</b>, the Fed's establishment of new tools will effectively smooth market liquidity fluctuations. However, in this shrinking balance sheet cycle, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will actively sell its institutional MBS holdings, or further push up mortgage interest rates.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li><b>Global asset changes under the shrinking balance sheet</b>。<b>The last round of shrinking balance sheet had a greater impact on emerging markets, while the internal performance of developed economies was somewhat divergent</b>。 From the perspective of the industry performance of U.S. stocks, information technology has increased significantly, and the consumption sector has been significantly differentiated. Optional consumption is better than mandatory consumption. However, the performance of real estate, mandatory consumption and public utilities sectors has gradually improved with the advancement of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet. In terms of global stock indexes, U.S. stocks stood out during the last shrinking balance sheet, while most other markets declined.<b>Risks in emerging markets have been released</b>。 However, during this round of QE, the performance of emerging markets was actually inferior to that of developed markets. Considering that funds from emerging markets have flowed out this year, the stock index has been adjusted back, and risks have been released to some extent. As of the end of 2021, emerging market capital inflows will be approximately US $570 billion, less than half of the last round of QE. Most emerging market economies have already undertaken precautionary rate hike and therefore<b>The scale of further capital outflows may be relatively limited</b>。 Judging from historical experience, during the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet,<b>The interest rate differential between China and the United States narrowed first and then widened due to monetary policy misalignment</b>, the current inversion of interest rate differentials between China and the United States has already appeared. We believe that domestic<b>RRR cut and interest rate cut</b>Represented by<b>Monetary policy easing space is restricted</b>，<b>Domestic bond market yield levels are easy to rise but difficult to fall</b>。 In terms of exchange rate, the U.S. dollar remains strong, which may give the rest of the world<b>Major currencies</b>Bring a certain<b>Devaluation pressure</b>。 At present, the upward trend in energy prices mainly comes from<b>Supply shock</b>, is likely to be difficult to be suppressed by the higher US dollar, globally priced commodities, especially<b>The price of industrial products subject to supply constraints may remain high.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>1. What's different about shrinking balance sheet this time?</b></p><p>After several rounds of QE, the Federal Reserve officially announced a shrinking balance sheet in 2017 until the end of 2019. Although it is one of the few shrinking balance sheet periods for reference, this round of shrinking balance sheet is likely to be quite different from the previous round.</p><p><b>Inflation triggers monetary tightening.</b>First of all, from the perspective of the causes of monetary policy tightening, this round of rate hike's shrinking balance sheet is mainly driven by inflation. Before the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the U.S. economy had entered the recovery channel, the manufacturing PMI was stable above the boom-bust line, the unemployment rate also hit a new low, the job market was generally good, and the inflation level had been fluctuating around 2%. Although the job market has also improved in this round, since mid-2021, U.S. inflation has continued to be high and gradually rising, setting a new high since the period of great stagflation, and there are no signs of peaking and falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7576a05bc1a949508d2d4248ed308199\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Rate hike rushed to prevent problems before they happen.</b>Secondly, from the perspective of global monetary policy trends, before the last round of shrinking balance sheet, except for a few emerging market rate hike, the world's major economies did not see significant tightening. In the second half of 2021, as expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening rise, emerging economies such as Russia and Brazil have successively adopted preventive rate hike to prevent the risk of exchange rate depreciation and capital outflow. Since the beginning of this year, the Russia-Ukraine crisis has pushed energy prices high. In order to curb inflation,<b>Most central banks around the world have accelerated monetary tightening</b>。 Many emerging market economies have a single rate hike of at least 50 basis points, and developed economies such as New Zealand, Canada, and Korea have also entered the rate hike queue. The world has ushered in a new wave of rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3afd5e4e00c4fa8a1fc0f261bafc20c\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"871\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Shrinking balance sheet and rate hike work closely together.</b>Third, from the perspective of the coordination of the two monetary policy tightening methods in rate hike and shrinking balance sheet. Several rounds of quantitative easing made the size of the Fed's balance sheet nearly four times larger than before the financial crisis on the eve of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Excessive reserves made the Fed try to reduce the total<b>Normalization of asset size</b>。 At the same time, due to previous continuous rate hike, the US Dollar Index remained high and inflation hovered at a low level. At that time, in a sense, shrinking balance sheet was actually used as an alternative to rate hike, which made the tightening method<b>More flexible</b>Relatively speaking, the impact on exchange rate and inflation is more moderate than that of rate hike. On the other hand, the main purpose of this round of shrinking balance sheet is to cooperate with rate hike's approach.<b>Accelerate the curbing of inflation</b>, reducing the balance sheet and reserve size to recover excess liquidity, especially<b>Push up long-term interest rates and expand term spreads, creating conditions for continued rate hike</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a89f02a52041679744bd5a198e62a4\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Passive shrinking balance sheet is the main one, and some are actively sold.</b>Fourthly, from the perspective of the implementation of the shrinking balance sheet, the last round of shrinking balance sheet was mainly a passive shrinking balance sheet by reducing the reinvestment of maturing funds, but did not take the form of active shrinking balance sheet (selling unexpired holdings in the market). securities). However, according to the minutes of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in March,<b>This round of shrinking balance sheet is mainly passive, but it may actively sell unexpired MBS.</b>On the one hand, officials attending the March interest rate meeting believed that the early repayment of MBS principal may be lower than the monthly ceiling of shrinking balance sheet. Research by the New York Fed and Richmond Fed estimates that the average monthly size of MBS prepayment is about 24-25 billion, which is lower than the upper limit of MBS reduction. On the other hand, the Fed expects that its future holdings portfolio should be mainly composed of Treasury Bond, and it is appropriate to consider actively selling MBS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc95bfdf73c74954b55706a9dcfc835e\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The speed of shrinking balance sheet has obviously accelerated.</b>Fifth, from the perspective of shrinking balance sheet's speed. The Federal Reserve has been in rate hike four times, and it took 22 months to officially launch the last round of shrinking balance sheet. In the first month, the reduction targets were set at 6 billion U.S. Treasury Bond and 4 billion MBS, and the quota was increased by 6 billion and 4 billion respectively every three months, which took one year to reach the monthly reduction ceiling of 30 billion U.S. debt and 20 billion MBS. After seven months, the Federal Reserve began to lower the shrinking balance sheet ceiling, lowering the Treasury Bond and MBS ceilings to 15 billion and 20 billion respectively for the first time, and then lowering the two ceilings to zero three months later. From the time point of view of this round of shrinking balance sheet, the Fed's pace of advancement has obviously accelerated. The time interval between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet may drop to 2 months, and it may reach 60 billion U.S. debt and 35 billion U.S. debt per month as soon as 3 months after shrinking balance sheet. The reduction ceiling of billion MBS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeacdf4a12cb48feab3e4da6108ca8ea\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The intensity of shrinking balance sheet has increased.</b>Sixth, from the perspective of the intensity of shrinking balance sheet. During the last shrinking balance sheet, the Fed's target reduction accounted for about 1.3% of the Fed's total assets and about 0.24% of GDP. Although the upper limit of this reduction has been raised to US $95 billion and the reduction speed has increased significantly, since the Federal Reserve has reached the highest total assets in history, the proportion of the target reduction scale to the total assets of the Federal Reserve has not changed significantly, about 1.1%, while the target reduction scale The proportion of GDP is about 0.41%, which is significantly higher than the previous round.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/560e37ba85754134b4140c53a89691a0\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The impact of shrinking balance sheet should be responded in advance.</b>Seventh, from the perspective of prevention and response to the impact of shrinking balance sheet. The liquidity crisis is the main reason why the Federal Reserve terminated the last round of shrinking balance sheet. After the financial crisis, in order to enhance the banking system's ability to resist liquidity risks, the Federal Reserve raised its requirements for liquid assets in terms of supervision. In September 2019, due to the superposition of the triple factors of shrinking balance sheet, tax payment and Treasury Bond subscription payment, the overnight lending rate once soared to 10%, and Federal Funds rate once broke through the target upper limit and rose to 2.3%, forcing the New York Fed to intervene for the first time in nearly ten years. overnight repo market,<b>Liquidity Shortfall Finally Leads Fed Out of shrinking balance sheet</b>。 This time, the Federal Reserve fully absorbed the liquidity problems exposed in the last round of shrinking balance sheet, and set up standing repurchase facilities in advance to ensure sufficient market liquidity as much as possible.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28895693a9c642b884a4f059e48857c4\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The scale of shrinking balance sheet far exceeds that of the last round.</b>Finally, from the perspective of the total size of shrinking balance sheet. During the entire shrinking balance sheet cycle from 2017 to 2019, the Fed's target reduction was US $755 billion, which actually reduced its total assets by about US $650 billion, accounting for 15% of the total assets of the Fed before shrinking balance sheet and about 3% of the GDP of that year. Considering the current sufficient reserves and relatively loose liquidity, this rate hike process will not repeat the same mistakes. However, if the inflation momentum is curbed in the future, the shrinking balance sheet process in rate hike may not rule out an early end. Referring to the experience of the last round of shrinking balance sheet and the recent speeches of Fed officials, when the reserve scale accounts for 8% of nominal GDP, market liquidity is more appropriate. If the IMF predicts that the nominal GDP of the United States in 2023 will be 26.7 trillion US dollars, the desired reserve size will be approximately 2.14 trillion US dollars. It is roughly estimated that the current round of shrinking balance sheet will be 1.63 trillion US dollars, accounting for 18.2% of the existing total assets. The shrinking balance sheet will last for about 18 months until the end of 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/015d51beb2ab46118d5e35bb5a5d0535\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. How does the shrinking balance sheet affect the liquidity environment?</b></p><p><b>There are three major transmission paths for the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet on interest rates.</b>The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is to continue to stimulate the economy by continuing to purchase medium and long-term Treasury Bond, release liquidity, flatten the yield curve, and reduce the long-term interest rate level when the short-term interest rate cannot break through the constraint of the lower limit of 0 interest rate. means. And<b>Shrinking balance sheet is essentially a reverse operation of balance sheet expansion. On the one hand</b>, reduce the money supply (quantity) by reducing the scale of reserves on the liability side.<b>On the other hand</b>, pushing up interest rates (prices) by releasing policy signals and rebalancing asset portfolios.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3cbd4846cec482586a5a0e39c382859\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Short-term interest rates will also rise.</b>Rate hike mainly curbs money demand by increasing capital borrowing costs, while shrinking balance sheet directly pushes up short-term interest rates by affecting money supply. If we exclude the impact of rate hike on short-term interest rates, shrinking balance sheet actually has a certain contribution to the rise of short-term interest rates. Judging from the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the difference between the short-term Treasury Bond yield and the benchmark interest rate target changed significantly before and after the Fed's shrinking balance sheet, and increased by about 0.2 percentage points after the shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72012418d8eb40b08be2fba8a69e4ab9\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Long-term interest rates pushed up significantly.</b>The Fed's shrinking balance sheet mainly affects long-term interest rates through signals and portfolio rebalancing.<b>On the one hand</b>, the Federal Reserve released a balance sheet normalization signal, provided forward-looking guidance, changed yield curve expectations, and guided long-term interest rates upward.<b>On the other hand</b>, the Federal Reserve's holdings of long-term assets gradually declined, and the supply of long-term assets in the market increased, thus pushing up long-term interest rates. According to the research of Bauer and Neely (2012), a change in the Fed's balance sheet of 1% of GDP will bring about a change of about 8bp in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield. If shrinking balance sheet's maximum scale of 95 billion US dollars is followed, it is expected to push up the 10-year Treasury Bond yield by about 3.3 bp every month, with an annual impact of about 0.4 percentage points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c641c1f98db4e30b518044ee16e8a80\" tg-width=\"1011\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Fed's shrinking balance sheet will significantly reduce liquidity levels.</b>The shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve will reduce the scale of assets and liabilities at the same time. During the last round of Fed QE, the scale of reserves rose sharply to US $2.5 trillion and remained near this level for a long time. After the last round of shrinking balance sheet began, the scale of reserves dropped sharply to about US $1.5 trillion, and the scale of overnight reverse repurchases also dropped from US $200 billion to 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0824d93953e841968a3d250d0e23a38f\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The liquidity crisis may not reappear in the short term.</b>However, we believe that the risk of liquidity crisis in this round of shrinking balance sheet is not high.<b>On the one hand</b>, the existing liquidity in the market is relatively high, the reserve scale remains at a level of around 4 trillion, and the overnight reverse repurchase scale also remains at a high level of 1.6 trillion, much higher than the monthly shrinking balance sheet scale of 95 billion US dollars.<b>On the other hand</b>, the Federal Reserve will set up domestic and foreign repurchase facilities as standing standards in 2021 to provide liquidity to the market in a timely manner. The new tool will effectively smooth market liquidity fluctuations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef8931ddcdc54ed58a54093ca5ab1815\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Actively selling MBS may push up mortgage interest rates.</b>As the Federal Reserve accelerates the tightening of monetary policy, the yields of Treasury Bond of all maturities in the United States have risen, driving the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to rise above 5%, a new high since 2011. Judging from historical data, rising mortgage interest rates will increase residents' house purchase costs, curb purchase demand, and put pressure on the real estate market. In this shrinking balance sheet cycle, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will actively sell its institutional MBS holdings, or further push up mortgage interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99c41fbe3b84095879c0adc27ed6667\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Global asset changes under the shrinking balance sheet</b></p><p><b>The last round of shrinking balance sheet hit emerging markets.</b>How will the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet affect the performance of major asset classes? We might as well look for clues from the last round of shrinking balance sheet. We divided the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet process into three stages: from the beginning of the shrinking balance sheet to half a year, reaching the reduction ceiling (one year), and the entire shrinking balance sheet period (about two years), and calculated the income performance of various assets separately. We found that,<b>Last time, shrinking balance sheet had a greater impact on emerging markets, while there was a relatively obvious differentiation within developed economies.</b>With the progress of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, the prices of commodities with higher demand in emerging markets have dropped significantly, and the emerging market index has gradually adjusted. However, crude oil and stock indexes with higher demand in developed economies have performed relatively well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b8da395bcf04d8792a296aa315b603b\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the perspective of industry performance, information technology has increased significantly, and optional consumption is better than mandatory consumption.</b>Overall, the impact of the last round of shrinking balance sheet by the Federal Reserve on the performance of various industries in the U.S. stock market is the most prominent in the information technology industry. However, there is a significant differentiation in the consumption sector. Optional consumption is among the best, but mandatory consumption is relatively backward. However, with the advancement of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet process, the performance of real estate, required consumption and public utilities has gradually improved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50cf9c0220f14fd1a04ee998d7329dcd\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. stocks stood out, while most other markets declined.</b>The stock markets of major global markets showed a volatile trend during the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, but the trends were quite different. Among them, developed markets and emerging markets except the United States have been harder impacted by shrinking balance sheet, showing a volatile downward trend. U.S. stocks kept rising and hit new highs for a year after the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet began. All market stock indexes experienced a short-term pullback/retracement from September 2018 to February 2019, and then the trend continued to diverge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fee8a5cf5d1402d914544119d798119\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risks in emerging markets have been released.</b>During the last round of Fed balance sheet expansion, funds flowed to emerging markets in large quantities, pushing up the stock index performance of emerging markets. Until 2013, when the Fed began to gradually tighten monetary policy, global funds flowed back, and the market performance of developed economies was better than that of emerging markets. Well, when the Fed started a shrinking balance sheet, funds from emerging markets flowed out further. However, during this round of QE, the performance of emerging markets was actually inferior to that of developed markets. Although the pace of monetary tightening this time is fast, and rate hike's shrinking balance sheet almost completely overlap, considering that funds from emerging markets have flowed out this year, the stock index has been adjusted back, and risks have been released to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0387aaac6d684000a293b8abfe31ae00\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The scale of capital inflows is less than half of the previous round.</b>During the last round of Fed QE, the net inflow of stock and bond funds in emerging markets was approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for nearly 60% of the changes in the Fed's balance sheet. During this round of QE, as of the end of 2021, the net inflow of stock and bond funds in emerging markets was about US $570 billion, less than half of the previous round, and only accounted for about 13% of the changes in the Fed's balance sheet. Furthermore,<b>Most emerging market economies have already undertaken precautionary rate hike, so the scale of further capital outflows may be relatively limited</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea99419ab1a44a0bc507c339e0f6c0d\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond market interest rates are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>From the perspective of historical performance, my country's Treasury Bond yields are consistent with U.S. bond yields in most cases. However, during the last round of the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, the interest rate differential between the two countries narrowed as the Federal Reserve tightened the currency and the country continued to remain loose. In the late stage of the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, due to the liquidity crisis in the market, the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates and stop shrinking balance sheet, driving U.S. bond yields down, and the spread between China and the United States widened again. At present, the inversion of the interest rate spread between China and the United States has already appeared. With the rise of U.S. bond yields, we believe that the easing space of domestic monetary policy represented by RRR cuts and interest rate cuts is restricted, and the domestic bond market yield level is easy to rise but difficult to fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34509811861401da679c9d2b8fce9f6\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The US dollar remains strong, and the pressure of exchange rate depreciation increases.</b>The last round of shrinking balance sheet implemented by the Federal Reserve tightened the U.S. monetary policy compared with the euro zone margin, pushing the US Dollar Index upward. Overall, with the continuous shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, most currencies have depreciated compared with the US dollar, and the decline has gradually expanded. However, the Thai baht and Japanese yen performed relatively well during the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At present, the US Dollar Index has exceeded 100, and this round of shrinking balance sheet may bring certain depreciation pressure to major currencies in the world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f402c7ee3a74a64953d4aebd576d889\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Supply shocks dominate, and prices may remain high.</b>Energy commodities performed well in the early and mid-term of the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, while non-ferrous metals except nickel performed poorly. During the entire shrinking balance sheet of the last round of the Federal Reserve, precious metals first fell and then rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Among them, the trends of corn and soybeans are somewhat divergent. At present, the upward trend in energy prices mainly comes from supply shocks, which are likely to be difficult to suppress by the rise of the US dollar. The prices of globally priced commodities, especially industrial products subject to supply constraints, may remain high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/873be73c90154fa3aeebabbfb73560e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What need to be worried about shrinking balance sheet?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat need to be worried about shrinking balance sheet?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/71\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">李迅雷金融与投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-02 07:57</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May is about to be held. In addition to rate hike, it is likely that details such as the path and method of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet will be announced. So, in the environment of the post-epidemic era, how is this round of Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the previous round? How will it affect the economy and capital markets? This report analyzes this.</b><b>summary</b></p><p><ul><li><b>What's different about shrinking balance sheet this time? First</b>From the perspective of the causes of monetary tightening, this round of rate hike's shrinking balance sheet is mainly driven by inflation.<b>Next</b>From the perspective of global monetary policy trends, before the last round of shrinking balance sheet, except for a few emerging market rate hike, the world's major economies did not see significant tightening. Before this round of shrinking balance sheet, most central banks around the world accelerated their monetary tightening process.<b>Third</b>From the perspective of the coordination of the two monetary policy tightening methods in rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the synergy between the two in shrinking balance sheet is higher this time.<b>Fourth</b>From the perspective of implementation, this round of shrinking balance sheet is mainly passive, but it may actively sell some unexpired MBS.<b>Fifth</b>Judging from the speed of shrinking balance sheet, the pace of this round of advancement has obviously accelerated, and the interval between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet may drop from 22 months in the previous round to 2 months.<b>Sixth</b>From the perspective of intensity, the proportion of the target scale of this reduction in GDP has increased significantly compared with the previous round.<b>Seventh</b>From the perspective of preventing and responding to the impact of the shrinking balance sheet, this time the Federal Reserve has set up a standing repurchase facility tool in advance to ensure sufficient market liquidity as much as possible.<b>in the end</b>From the perspective of the total scale of shrinking balance sheet, we estimate that this round of shrinking balance sheet will reach approximately 1.63 trillion yuan, far exceeding the previous round, and will last for approximately 18 months until the end of 2023.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li><b>How does shrinking balance sheet affect the liquidity environment?</b>There are three major transmission paths for the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet on interest rates.<b>On the one hand</b>, by<b>Reduce the scale of reserves on the liability side</b>Reduce the money supply (quantity).<b>On the other hand</b>, by<b>Release policy signals and rebalance asset portfolios</b>The way to push up interest rates (prices). Shrinking balance sheet will also push up short-term interest rates to a certain extent, while the effect on long-term interest rates is more obvious. We predict that this round of shrinking balance sheet will push up the yield of ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond by about 0.4 percentage points every year. although<b>Shrinking balance sheet will significantly reduce liquidity levels, but the liquidity crisis may not reappear in the short term</b>。<b>On the one hand</b>, the existing liquidity of the market is relatively high.<b>On the other hand</b>, the Fed's establishment of new tools will effectively smooth market liquidity fluctuations. However, in this shrinking balance sheet cycle, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will actively sell its institutional MBS holdings, or further push up mortgage interest rates.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li><b>Global asset changes under the shrinking balance sheet</b>。<b>The last round of shrinking balance sheet had a greater impact on emerging markets, while the internal performance of developed economies was somewhat divergent</b>。 From the perspective of the industry performance of U.S. stocks, information technology has increased significantly, and the consumption sector has been significantly differentiated. Optional consumption is better than mandatory consumption. However, the performance of real estate, mandatory consumption and public utilities sectors has gradually improved with the advancement of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet. In terms of global stock indexes, U.S. stocks stood out during the last shrinking balance sheet, while most other markets declined.<b>Risks in emerging markets have been released</b>。 However, during this round of QE, the performance of emerging markets was actually inferior to that of developed markets. Considering that funds from emerging markets have flowed out this year, the stock index has been adjusted back, and risks have been released to some extent. As of the end of 2021, emerging market capital inflows will be approximately US $570 billion, less than half of the last round of QE. Most emerging market economies have already undertaken precautionary rate hike and therefore<b>The scale of further capital outflows may be relatively limited</b>。 Judging from historical experience, during the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet,<b>The interest rate differential between China and the United States narrowed first and then widened due to monetary policy misalignment</b>, the current inversion of interest rate differentials between China and the United States has already appeared. We believe that domestic<b>RRR cut and interest rate cut</b>Represented by<b>Monetary policy easing space is restricted</b>，<b>Domestic bond market yield levels are easy to rise but difficult to fall</b>。 In terms of exchange rate, the U.S. dollar remains strong, which may give the rest of the world<b>Major currencies</b>Bring a certain<b>Devaluation pressure</b>。 At present, the upward trend in energy prices mainly comes from<b>Supply shock</b>, is likely to be difficult to be suppressed by the higher US dollar, globally priced commodities, especially<b>The price of industrial products subject to supply constraints may remain high.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>1. What's different about shrinking balance sheet this time?</b></p><p>After several rounds of QE, the Federal Reserve officially announced a shrinking balance sheet in 2017 until the end of 2019. Although it is one of the few shrinking balance sheet periods for reference, this round of shrinking balance sheet is likely to be quite different from the previous round.</p><p><b>Inflation triggers monetary tightening.</b>First of all, from the perspective of the causes of monetary policy tightening, this round of rate hike's shrinking balance sheet is mainly driven by inflation. Before the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the U.S. economy had entered the recovery channel, the manufacturing PMI was stable above the boom-bust line, the unemployment rate also hit a new low, the job market was generally good, and the inflation level had been fluctuating around 2%. Although the job market has also improved in this round, since mid-2021, U.S. inflation has continued to be high and gradually rising, setting a new high since the period of great stagflation, and there are no signs of peaking and falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7576a05bc1a949508d2d4248ed308199\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Rate hike rushed to prevent problems before they happen.</b>Secondly, from the perspective of global monetary policy trends, before the last round of shrinking balance sheet, except for a few emerging market rate hike, the world's major economies did not see significant tightening. In the second half of 2021, as expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening rise, emerging economies such as Russia and Brazil have successively adopted preventive rate hike to prevent the risk of exchange rate depreciation and capital outflow. Since the beginning of this year, the Russia-Ukraine crisis has pushed energy prices high. In order to curb inflation,<b>Most central banks around the world have accelerated monetary tightening</b>。 Many emerging market economies have a single rate hike of at least 50 basis points, and developed economies such as New Zealand, Canada, and Korea have also entered the rate hike queue. The world has ushered in a new wave of rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3afd5e4e00c4fa8a1fc0f261bafc20c\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"871\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Shrinking balance sheet and rate hike work closely together.</b>Third, from the perspective of the coordination of the two monetary policy tightening methods in rate hike and shrinking balance sheet. Several rounds of quantitative easing made the size of the Fed's balance sheet nearly four times larger than before the financial crisis on the eve of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Excessive reserves made the Fed try to reduce the total<b>Normalization of asset size</b>。 At the same time, due to previous continuous rate hike, the US Dollar Index remained high and inflation hovered at a low level. At that time, in a sense, shrinking balance sheet was actually used as an alternative to rate hike, which made the tightening method<b>More flexible</b>Relatively speaking, the impact on exchange rate and inflation is more moderate than that of rate hike. On the other hand, the main purpose of this round of shrinking balance sheet is to cooperate with rate hike's approach.<b>Accelerate the curbing of inflation</b>, reducing the balance sheet and reserve size to recover excess liquidity, especially<b>Push up long-term interest rates and expand term spreads, creating conditions for continued rate hike</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a89f02a52041679744bd5a198e62a4\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Passive shrinking balance sheet is the main one, and some are actively sold.</b>Fourthly, from the perspective of the implementation of the shrinking balance sheet, the last round of shrinking balance sheet was mainly a passive shrinking balance sheet by reducing the reinvestment of maturing funds, but did not take the form of active shrinking balance sheet (selling unexpired holdings in the market). securities). However, according to the minutes of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in March,<b>This round of shrinking balance sheet is mainly passive, but it may actively sell unexpired MBS.</b>On the one hand, officials attending the March interest rate meeting believed that the early repayment of MBS principal may be lower than the monthly ceiling of shrinking balance sheet. Research by the New York Fed and Richmond Fed estimates that the average monthly size of MBS prepayment is about 24-25 billion, which is lower than the upper limit of MBS reduction. On the other hand, the Fed expects that its future holdings portfolio should be mainly composed of Treasury Bond, and it is appropriate to consider actively selling MBS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc95bfdf73c74954b55706a9dcfc835e\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The speed of shrinking balance sheet has obviously accelerated.</b>Fifth, from the perspective of shrinking balance sheet's speed. The Federal Reserve has been in rate hike four times, and it took 22 months to officially launch the last round of shrinking balance sheet. In the first month, the reduction targets were set at 6 billion U.S. Treasury Bond and 4 billion MBS, and the quota was increased by 6 billion and 4 billion respectively every three months, which took one year to reach the monthly reduction ceiling of 30 billion U.S. debt and 20 billion MBS. After seven months, the Federal Reserve began to lower the shrinking balance sheet ceiling, lowering the Treasury Bond and MBS ceilings to 15 billion and 20 billion respectively for the first time, and then lowering the two ceilings to zero three months later. From the time point of view of this round of shrinking balance sheet, the Fed's pace of advancement has obviously accelerated. The time interval between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet may drop to 2 months, and it may reach 60 billion U.S. debt and 35 billion U.S. debt per month as soon as 3 months after shrinking balance sheet. The reduction ceiling of billion MBS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeacdf4a12cb48feab3e4da6108ca8ea\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The intensity of shrinking balance sheet has increased.</b>Sixth, from the perspective of the intensity of shrinking balance sheet. During the last shrinking balance sheet, the Fed's target reduction accounted for about 1.3% of the Fed's total assets and about 0.24% of GDP. Although the upper limit of this reduction has been raised to US $95 billion and the reduction speed has increased significantly, since the Federal Reserve has reached the highest total assets in history, the proportion of the target reduction scale to the total assets of the Federal Reserve has not changed significantly, about 1.1%, while the target reduction scale The proportion of GDP is about 0.41%, which is significantly higher than the previous round.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/560e37ba85754134b4140c53a89691a0\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The impact of shrinking balance sheet should be responded in advance.</b>Seventh, from the perspective of prevention and response to the impact of shrinking balance sheet. The liquidity crisis is the main reason why the Federal Reserve terminated the last round of shrinking balance sheet. After the financial crisis, in order to enhance the banking system's ability to resist liquidity risks, the Federal Reserve raised its requirements for liquid assets in terms of supervision. In September 2019, due to the superposition of the triple factors of shrinking balance sheet, tax payment and Treasury Bond subscription payment, the overnight lending rate once soared to 10%, and Federal Funds rate once broke through the target upper limit and rose to 2.3%, forcing the New York Fed to intervene for the first time in nearly ten years. overnight repo market,<b>Liquidity Shortfall Finally Leads Fed Out of shrinking balance sheet</b>。 This time, the Federal Reserve fully absorbed the liquidity problems exposed in the last round of shrinking balance sheet, and set up standing repurchase facilities in advance to ensure sufficient market liquidity as much as possible.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28895693a9c642b884a4f059e48857c4\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The scale of shrinking balance sheet far exceeds that of the last round.</b>Finally, from the perspective of the total size of shrinking balance sheet. During the entire shrinking balance sheet cycle from 2017 to 2019, the Fed's target reduction was US $755 billion, which actually reduced its total assets by about US $650 billion, accounting for 15% of the total assets of the Fed before shrinking balance sheet and about 3% of the GDP of that year. Considering the current sufficient reserves and relatively loose liquidity, this rate hike process will not repeat the same mistakes. However, if the inflation momentum is curbed in the future, the shrinking balance sheet process in rate hike may not rule out an early end. Referring to the experience of the last round of shrinking balance sheet and the recent speeches of Fed officials, when the reserve scale accounts for 8% of nominal GDP, market liquidity is more appropriate. If the IMF predicts that the nominal GDP of the United States in 2023 will be 26.7 trillion US dollars, the desired reserve size will be approximately 2.14 trillion US dollars. It is roughly estimated that the current round of shrinking balance sheet will be 1.63 trillion US dollars, accounting for 18.2% of the existing total assets. The shrinking balance sheet will last for about 18 months until the end of 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/015d51beb2ab46118d5e35bb5a5d0535\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. How does the shrinking balance sheet affect the liquidity environment?</b></p><p><b>There are three major transmission paths for the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet on interest rates.</b>The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is to continue to stimulate the economy by continuing to purchase medium and long-term Treasury Bond, release liquidity, flatten the yield curve, and reduce the long-term interest rate level when the short-term interest rate cannot break through the constraint of the lower limit of 0 interest rate. means. And<b>Shrinking balance sheet is essentially a reverse operation of balance sheet expansion. On the one hand</b>, reduce the money supply (quantity) by reducing the scale of reserves on the liability side.<b>On the other hand</b>, pushing up interest rates (prices) by releasing policy signals and rebalancing asset portfolios.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3cbd4846cec482586a5a0e39c382859\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Short-term interest rates will also rise.</b>Rate hike mainly curbs money demand by increasing capital borrowing costs, while shrinking balance sheet directly pushes up short-term interest rates by affecting money supply. If we exclude the impact of rate hike on short-term interest rates, shrinking balance sheet actually has a certain contribution to the rise of short-term interest rates. Judging from the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the difference between the short-term Treasury Bond yield and the benchmark interest rate target changed significantly before and after the Fed's shrinking balance sheet, and increased by about 0.2 percentage points after the shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72012418d8eb40b08be2fba8a69e4ab9\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Long-term interest rates pushed up significantly.</b>The Fed's shrinking balance sheet mainly affects long-term interest rates through signals and portfolio rebalancing.<b>On the one hand</b>, the Federal Reserve released a balance sheet normalization signal, provided forward-looking guidance, changed yield curve expectations, and guided long-term interest rates upward.<b>On the other hand</b>, the Federal Reserve's holdings of long-term assets gradually declined, and the supply of long-term assets in the market increased, thus pushing up long-term interest rates. According to the research of Bauer and Neely (2012), a change in the Fed's balance sheet of 1% of GDP will bring about a change of about 8bp in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield. If shrinking balance sheet's maximum scale of 95 billion US dollars is followed, it is expected to push up the 10-year Treasury Bond yield by about 3.3 bp every month, with an annual impact of about 0.4 percentage points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c641c1f98db4e30b518044ee16e8a80\" tg-width=\"1011\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Fed's shrinking balance sheet will significantly reduce liquidity levels.</b>The shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve will reduce the scale of assets and liabilities at the same time. During the last round of Fed QE, the scale of reserves rose sharply to US $2.5 trillion and remained near this level for a long time. After the last round of shrinking balance sheet began, the scale of reserves dropped sharply to about US $1.5 trillion, and the scale of overnight reverse repurchases also dropped from US $200 billion to 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0824d93953e841968a3d250d0e23a38f\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The liquidity crisis may not reappear in the short term.</b>However, we believe that the risk of liquidity crisis in this round of shrinking balance sheet is not high.<b>On the one hand</b>, the existing liquidity in the market is relatively high, the reserve scale remains at a level of around 4 trillion, and the overnight reverse repurchase scale also remains at a high level of 1.6 trillion, much higher than the monthly shrinking balance sheet scale of 95 billion US dollars.<b>On the other hand</b>, the Federal Reserve will set up domestic and foreign repurchase facilities as standing standards in 2021 to provide liquidity to the market in a timely manner. The new tool will effectively smooth market liquidity fluctuations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef8931ddcdc54ed58a54093ca5ab1815\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Actively selling MBS may push up mortgage interest rates.</b>As the Federal Reserve accelerates the tightening of monetary policy, the yields of Treasury Bond of all maturities in the United States have risen, driving the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to rise above 5%, a new high since 2011. Judging from historical data, rising mortgage interest rates will increase residents' house purchase costs, curb purchase demand, and put pressure on the real estate market. In this shrinking balance sheet cycle, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will actively sell its institutional MBS holdings, or further push up mortgage interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99c41fbe3b84095879c0adc27ed6667\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Global asset changes under the shrinking balance sheet</b></p><p><b>The last round of shrinking balance sheet hit emerging markets.</b>How will the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet affect the performance of major asset classes? We might as well look for clues from the last round of shrinking balance sheet. We divided the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet process into three stages: from the beginning of the shrinking balance sheet to half a year, reaching the reduction ceiling (one year), and the entire shrinking balance sheet period (about two years), and calculated the income performance of various assets separately. We found that,<b>Last time, shrinking balance sheet had a greater impact on emerging markets, while there was a relatively obvious differentiation within developed economies.</b>With the progress of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, the prices of commodities with higher demand in emerging markets have dropped significantly, and the emerging market index has gradually adjusted. However, crude oil and stock indexes with higher demand in developed economies have performed relatively well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b8da395bcf04d8792a296aa315b603b\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the perspective of industry performance, information technology has increased significantly, and optional consumption is better than mandatory consumption.</b>Overall, the impact of the last round of shrinking balance sheet by the Federal Reserve on the performance of various industries in the U.S. stock market is the most prominent in the information technology industry. However, there is a significant differentiation in the consumption sector. Optional consumption is among the best, but mandatory consumption is relatively backward. However, with the advancement of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet process, the performance of real estate, required consumption and public utilities has gradually improved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50cf9c0220f14fd1a04ee998d7329dcd\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. stocks stood out, while most other markets declined.</b>The stock markets of major global markets showed a volatile trend during the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, but the trends were quite different. Among them, developed markets and emerging markets except the United States have been harder impacted by shrinking balance sheet, showing a volatile downward trend. U.S. stocks kept rising and hit new highs for a year after the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet began. All market stock indexes experienced a short-term pullback/retracement from September 2018 to February 2019, and then the trend continued to diverge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fee8a5cf5d1402d914544119d798119\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risks in emerging markets have been released.</b>During the last round of Fed balance sheet expansion, funds flowed to emerging markets in large quantities, pushing up the stock index performance of emerging markets. Until 2013, when the Fed began to gradually tighten monetary policy, global funds flowed back, and the market performance of developed economies was better than that of emerging markets. Well, when the Fed started a shrinking balance sheet, funds from emerging markets flowed out further. However, during this round of QE, the performance of emerging markets was actually inferior to that of developed markets. Although the pace of monetary tightening this time is fast, and rate hike's shrinking balance sheet almost completely overlap, considering that funds from emerging markets have flowed out this year, the stock index has been adjusted back, and risks have been released to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0387aaac6d684000a293b8abfe31ae00\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The scale of capital inflows is less than half of the previous round.</b>During the last round of Fed QE, the net inflow of stock and bond funds in emerging markets was approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for nearly 60% of the changes in the Fed's balance sheet. During this round of QE, as of the end of 2021, the net inflow of stock and bond funds in emerging markets was about US $570 billion, less than half of the previous round, and only accounted for about 13% of the changes in the Fed's balance sheet. Furthermore,<b>Most emerging market economies have already undertaken precautionary rate hike, so the scale of further capital outflows may be relatively limited</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea99419ab1a44a0bc507c339e0f6c0d\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond market interest rates are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>From the perspective of historical performance, my country's Treasury Bond yields are consistent with U.S. bond yields in most cases. However, during the last round of the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, the interest rate differential between the two countries narrowed as the Federal Reserve tightened the currency and the country continued to remain loose. In the late stage of the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, due to the liquidity crisis in the market, the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates and stop shrinking balance sheet, driving U.S. bond yields down, and the spread between China and the United States widened again. At present, the inversion of the interest rate spread between China and the United States has already appeared. With the rise of U.S. bond yields, we believe that the easing space of domestic monetary policy represented by RRR cuts and interest rate cuts is restricted, and the domestic bond market yield level is easy to rise but difficult to fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34509811861401da679c9d2b8fce9f6\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The US dollar remains strong, and the pressure of exchange rate depreciation increases.</b>The last round of shrinking balance sheet implemented by the Federal Reserve tightened the U.S. monetary policy compared with the euro zone margin, pushing the US Dollar Index upward. Overall, with the continuous shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, most currencies have depreciated compared with the US dollar, and the decline has gradually expanded. However, the Thai baht and Japanese yen performed relatively well during the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At present, the US Dollar Index has exceeded 100, and this round of shrinking balance sheet may bring certain depreciation pressure to major currencies in the world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f402c7ee3a74a64953d4aebd576d889\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Supply shocks dominate, and prices may remain high.</b>Energy commodities performed well in the early and mid-term of the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, while non-ferrous metals except nickel performed poorly. During the entire shrinking balance sheet of the last round of the Federal Reserve, precious metals first fell and then rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Among them, the trends of corn and soybeans are somewhat divergent. At present, the upward trend in energy prices mainly comes from supply shocks, which are likely to be difficult to suppress by the rise of the US dollar. The prices of globally priced commodities, especially industrial products subject to supply constraints, may remain high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/873be73c90154fa3aeebabbfb73560e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fca69a364eb1ccaf6e9078f1721480","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2232733784","content_text":"5月美联储议息会议召开在即，除去加息之外，很可能会公布关于美联储缩表的路径、方式等细节内容。那么，在疫情后时代的环境之下，美联储本轮缩表与上轮有何不同？又会怎样影响经济和资本市场？本报告对此进行展开分析。概要这次缩表有什么不一样？首先，从货币收紧的成因上来看，本轮加息缩表主要受到通胀的推动。其次，从全球货币政策的动向上来看，上轮缩表前，除个别新兴市场加息外，全球主要经济体未见明显收紧，而本轮缩表前，全球多数央行都加快了货币收紧进程。第三，从加息和缩表两种货币政策收紧方式的配合性上来看，本次缩表两者协同性更高。第四，从实施方式上来看，本轮缩表方式以被动为主，但或主动出售部分未到期的MBS。第五，从缩表的速度上来看，本轮推进节奏明显加快，加息与缩表间隔或由上轮的22个月降至2个月。第六，从强度上来看，本次缩减的目标规模占GDP比重相较上轮明显提升。第七，从缩表影响的预防应对上来看，本次联储提前设立常备回购便利工具，尽可能保证市场流动性的充裕。最后，从缩表的总规模上来看，我们估算，本轮缩表约达1.63万亿，也远超上轮，并持续约18个月至2023年底结束。缩表如何影响流动性环境？美联储缩表对利率水平的影响存在三大传导路径。一方面，通过降低负债端的准备金规模减少货币供给（量）。另一方面，通过释放政策信号与资产组合再平衡的途径推高利率水平（价）。缩表对于短端利率也会有一定推升，而在长端利率上的作用效果更为明显，我们预计，本轮缩表每年约推升十年期美国国债收益率0.4个百分点。虽然缩表将显著降低流动性水平，但流动性危机短期或不会再现。一方面，市场现存流动性较高。另一方面，美联储设立新工具将有效平滑市场流动性波动。不过，在本轮缩表周期中，美联储大概率将主动出售其持有的机构MBS，或进一步推高抵押贷款利率。缩表下的全球资产变局。上轮缩表对新兴市场冲击较大，发达经济体内部表现则有所分化。从美股的行业表现上来看，信息技术涨幅明显，消费板块显著分化，可选消费好于必选，不过房地产、必选消费和公共事业的板块表现则随着美联储缩表的推进而逐步改善。全球股指方面，上轮缩表时期美股一枝独秀，而其它市场多数下行。新兴市场风险已有释放。不过，本轮QE期间，新兴市场表现事实上不及发达市场。考虑到新兴市场今年以来资金有所流出，股指已经回调，风险已有一定释放。截至2021年底新兴市场资金流入约5700亿美元，不足上轮QE期间的一半。多数新兴市场经济体已经进行了预防性加息，因而资本进一步外流的规模可能相对有限。从历史经验来看，上轮美联储缩表期间，中美利差因货币政策错位先收窄后扩大，当前中美利差倒挂已然出现，我们认为，国内以降准降息为代表的货币政策宽松空间受制，国内债市收益率水平易上难下。汇率方面，美元维持强势，或给全球其它主要货币带来一定的贬值压力。目前来看，能源价格的上行主要来自供给冲击，很可能难以被美元走高所压制，全球定价的大宗商品，特别是受到供给约束的工业品，价格或将居高不下。1、这次缩表有什么不一样？在经历过几轮QE之后，2017年美联储正式宣布缩表，直至2019年结束，虽然其作为少数可供参照的缩表时期，但是，本轮缩表很可能与上一轮存在较大的不同。通胀引发货币收紧。首先，从货币政策收紧的成因上来看，本轮加息缩表主要受到通胀的推动。上轮缩表前，美国经济已经步入复苏通道，制造业PMI稳定在荣枯线以上，失业率也创新低，就业市场整体良好，通胀水平一直以来在2%附近波动。而本轮就业市场虽也存在改善，但自2021年年中以来，美国通胀持续高企并逐步攀升，创下自大滞胀时期以来的新高，并且目前尚未出现见顶回落的迹象。加息抢跑防患未然。其次，从全球货币政策的动向上来看，上轮缩表前，除个别新兴市场加息外，全球主要经济体未见明显收紧。而2021年下半年，随着美联储货币收紧预期上升，俄罗斯、巴西等新兴经济体先后采取预防性加息，防范汇率贬值、资本外流风险。今年以来，俄乌危机推动能源价格高企，为了抑制通胀，全球多数央行都加快了货币收紧进程。多个新兴市场经济体单次加息至少50个基点，新西兰、加拿大、韩国等发达经济体也进入加息队列，全球已经迎来新一轮加息潮。缩表加息紧密配合。第三，从加息和缩表两种货币政策收紧方式的配合性上来看。持续几轮的量化宽松使得美联储资产负债表规模在上一轮缩表前夕，较金融危机发生前扩大近4倍，准备金过度宽裕令美联储试图将总资产规模正常化。同时，由于此前连续加息导致美元指数居高不下，通胀水平低位徘徊，当时在某种意义上，其实是以缩表作为加息的替代手段，这使得收紧方式上更加灵活，相对而言对于汇率和通胀的影响也比加息更为缓和。而反观本轮缩表，其主要目的在于配合加息这一方式，加快抑制通胀上行，缩减资产负债表和准备金规模回收过剩的流动性，特别是推高长端利率进而扩大期限利差，为持续加息创造条件。被动缩表为主，部分主动出售。第四，从缩表的实施方式上来看，上轮缩表主要是通过减少到期资金再投资的方式来进行的被动缩表，而并没有采取主动缩表（在市场上出售尚未到期的持有证券）的形式。不过，根据3月美联储议息会议纪要，本轮缩表方式以被动为主，但或主动出售未到期的MBS。一方面，3月议息会议上与会官员认为，MBS本金提前还款可能会低于缩表的每月上限。纽约联储和里士满联储研究估算，MBS提前偿还月均规模约在240-250亿左右，低于MBS缩减上限。另一方面，联储预计未来持有资产组合应主要由国债构成，考虑主动出售MBS是合适的。缩表速度明显加快。第五，从缩表的速度上来看。美联储在加息已达四次，历经22个月后才正式启动上轮缩表，首月缩减目标定为60亿的美国国债与40亿的MBS，并每三个月分别提高60亿和40亿额度，历时一年达到每月300亿美债及200亿MBS的缩减上限。在持续7个月后，美联储开始降低缩表上限，首次将国债和MBS上限分别降至150亿和200亿额度，再历经3个月后将二者上限降为零。而本轮缩表从时间上来看，美联储推进节奏明显加快，加息与缩表时间间隔或降至2个月，且最快或于缩表后3个月就达到每月600亿美债及350亿MBS的缩减上限。缩表强度有所提升。第六，从缩表的强度上来看。上次缩表过程中，美联储目标缩减规模占联储总资产比重最高约1.3%，占GDP比重最高约0.24%。尽管本次缩减上限提升至950亿美元且缩减速度大幅提升，但由于目前美联储达到历史最高规模的总资产，目标缩减规模占联储总资产比重未见明显变化，约为1.1%，而目标缩减规模占GDP比重约为0.41%，相较上轮明显提升。缩表影响提前应对。第七，从缩表影响的预防应对上来看。流动性危机是美联储终止上轮缩表进程的主要原因。金融危机后，为增强银行系统抵御流动性风险的能力，美联储在监管方面提高了对流动性资产的要求。2019年9月，由于缩表、缴税和国债认购缴款三重因素叠加，隔夜拆借利率一度飙升至10％，联邦基金利率也一度突破目标上限升至2.3%，迫使纽约联储近十年来首次出手干预隔夜回购市场，流动性短缺最终导致美联储退出缩表。本次联储充分吸取上轮缩表所暴露出的流动性问题，提前设立常备回购便利工具，尽可能保证市场流动性的充裕。缩表规模远超上轮。最后，从缩表的总规模上来看。在2017年-2019年整个缩表周期中，联储目标缩减规模为7550亿美元，实际缩减了约6500亿美元的总资产，占缩表前美联储总资产规模的15%，占当年GDP规模约3%。考虑到目前准备金充足，流动性较为宽松，本次加息进程不会因此重蹈覆辙。但未来若通胀势头有所遏制，加息缩表进程或也不排除提前结束。参照上轮缩表经验以及近期联储官员发言，准备金规模占名义GDP比例为8%时，市场流动性较为合适。若按IMF预测美国2023年名义GDP为26.7万亿，则合意准备金规模约为2.14万亿美元，粗略估算本轮缩表规模1.63万亿，占现有总资产规模的18.2%，缩表持续约18个月至2023年底结束。2、缩表如何影响流动性环境？美联储缩表对利率水平的影响存在三大传导路径。美联储资产负债表的扩张是在短期利率无法突破0利率下限约束的情况下，通过继续购买中长期国债，释放流动性并压平收益率曲线，降低长期限利率水平，从而达到继续刺激经济的手段。而缩表本质上是对扩表的逆向操作。一方面，通过降低负债端的准备金规模减少货币供给（量）。另一方面，通过释放政策信号与资产组合再平衡的途径推高利率水平（价）。短端利率也会上行。加息主要通过提高资金借贷成本来抑制货币需求，而缩表则直接通过影响货币供给进而推升短端利率。如果剔除加息对短端利率的影响后来看，缩表对短期利率推升事实上也有一定贡献。从上一轮缩表时期来看，短期国债收益率与基准利率目标的差值在美联储缩表前后变化明显，缩表后提高约0.2个百分点。长端利率明显推升。美联储缩表主要通过信号和资产组合再平衡途径影响长端利率。一方面，美联储释放资产负债表正常化信号，进行前瞻指引，改变收益率曲线预期，引导长端利率上行。另一方面，美联储持有长久期资产逐步下降，市场长久期资产供给上升，从而推高长端利率水平。根据Bauer and Neely（2012）的研究发现，GDP规模1%的美联储资产负债表变动将带来十年期国债收益率的变化约8bp，若按照缩表950亿美元的最大规模，预计每月将推升十年期国债收益率约3.3bp，每年的影响大约有0.4个百分点之多。美联储缩表将显著降低流动性水平。美联储缩表将同时使得资产和负债端规模有所下降。上轮美联储QE期间，准备金规模大幅上升至2.5万亿美元，并长期维持在这一水平附近。而上一轮缩表开始后，准备金规模大幅下降至约1.5万亿美元左右，隔夜逆回购规模也由2000亿美元降至0。流动性危机短期或不会再现。不过，我们认为，本轮缩表发生流动性危机的风险不高。一方面，市场现存流动性较高，准备金规模保持在4万亿左右的水平，隔夜逆回购规模也维持在1.6万亿的较高水平，远高于每月950亿美元的缩表规模。另一方面，美联储于2021年将国内和国外回购便利设立为常备，用于及时向市场提供流动性，新工具将有效平滑市场流动性波动。主动出售MBS或将推高房贷利率。随着美联储加速收紧货币政策，美国各期限国债收益率均有上升，带动30年期固定抵押贷款利率升破5%，创2011年以来新高。从历史数据来看，房贷利率抬升将提高居民购房成本，抑制购买需求，使房地产市场承压。本轮缩表周期中，美联储大概率将主动出售其持有的机构MBS，或进一步推高抵押贷款利率。3、缩表下的全球资产变局上轮缩表冲击新兴市场。美联储缩表对于大类资产表现会有怎样的影响？我们不妨先从上轮缩表中寻找线索。我们把上一轮美联储缩表过程划分为缩表开始至半年、达到缩减上限（一年）和整个缩表时期（时长约两年）三个阶段，并分别计算各类资产的收益表现。我们发现，上次缩表对于新兴市场的冲击较大，发达经济体内部则出现比较明显的分化。随着美联储缩表的进行，新兴市场需求占比更高的大宗商品价格明显回落，新兴市场指数也逐步调整，但发达经济体需求占比更高的原油和股指表现相对较好。从行业表现上来看，信息技术涨幅明显，可选消费好于必选。美联储上一轮缩表对于美股各行业表现的影响，整体来看，以信息技术行业涨幅最为突出。而消费板块存在显著分化，可选消费表现名列前茅，但必选消费则相对落后。不过，随着美联储缩表进程的推进，房地产、必选消费和公共事业表现则逐步改善。美股一枝独秀，其它市场多数下行。全球主要市场股市在上一轮美联储缩表期间呈现震荡态势，但走势上差异较大。其中，除美国以外的发达市场和新兴市场受到缩表冲击更大，呈现出震荡下行走势。而美股在美联储缩表开始后的一年时间内保持上行并创新高。各市场股指在2018年9月至2019年2月均出现短暂回撤，随后走势继续分化。新兴市场风险已有释放。上一轮美联储资产负债表扩张期间，资金大举流向新兴市场，推高了新兴市场的股指表现，直到2013年美联储开始逐步收紧货币政策，全球资金形成回流，发达经济体市场表现较新兴市场更好，而当美联储开始缩表，新兴市场资金进一步流出。不过，本轮QE期间，新兴市场表现事实上不及发达市场。虽然本次货币收紧节奏较快，加息缩表近乎完全重叠，但考虑到新兴市场今年以来资金有所流出，股指已经回调，风险已有一定释放。资金流入规模不足上轮一半。在上轮美联储QE期间，新兴市场股债资金净流入约1.3万亿美元，约占美联储资产负债表变动规模近60%。而本轮QE期间，截至2021年底新兴市场股债资金净流入约5700亿美元，不足上轮的一半，且仅占美联储资产负债表变动规模约13%。此外，多数新兴市场经济体已经进行了预防性加息，因而资本进一步外流的规模可能相对有限。债市利率易上难下。从历史表现上来看，我国国债收益率多数情况下和美债收益率走势一致。但在上轮美联储缩表期间，由于美联储收紧货币，而国内继续保持偏宽松的状态，导致两国利差收窄。上轮美联储缩表后期，由于市场出现流动性危机，美联储开始降息并停止缩表，带动美债收益率下行，中美利差再度扩大。当前中美利差倒挂已然出现，随着美债收益率水平的抬升，我们认为，国内以降准降息为代表的货币政策宽松空间受制，国内债市收益率水平易上难下。美元维持强势，汇率贬值压力加大。上轮美联储实施缩表使得美国货币政策较欧元区边际收紧，推动美元指数上行。总体来看，随着美联储缩表的不断进行，多数货币较美元贬值，跌幅逐步扩大，但上轮缩表期间泰铢和日元的表现相对较好。而目前美元指数已经超过100，这轮缩表或给全球主要货币都会带来一定的贬值压力。供给冲击主导，价格恐居高不下。能源商品在上轮美联储缩表的前中期表现较好，有色金属中除镍以外，均表现较差。而在上轮美联储的整个缩表期间，贵金属呈现先跌后升的局面。农产品中，玉米和大豆走势有所分化。当前来看，能源价格的上行主要来自供给冲击，很可能难以被美元走高所压制，全球定价的大宗商品，特别是受到供给约束的工业品，价格或将居高不下。风险提示：政策变动，经济恢复不及预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060202957,"gmtCreate":1651150342522,"gmtModify":1676534858974,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060202957","repostId":"1147036890","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887715275,"gmtCreate":1632099300997,"gmtModify":1676530699801,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887715275","repostId":"1182753548","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182753548","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632093446,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182753548?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-20 07:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Preview: Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision! Kunbo Medical will be launched soon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182753548","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"事件方面：美国将公布利率决定上限。美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将举行为期两天的货币政策会议，市场将密切关注美联储何时开始缩减资产购买计划的信号。\n\n\n数据方面：美联储利率决定(上限)、美国至9","content":"<p><b>In terms of events:</b>The U.S. will announce a cap on interest rate decisions. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting, and markets will be watching closely for signals on when the Fed will start tapering its asset purchase program.<b>In terms of data:</b>The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (upper limit), the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 18, and the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week ending September 17 are worthy of attention.<b>Financial report:</b>Adobe, Nike, FedEx, Gaotu, New Oriental, etc. will announce financial reports one after another.<b>For new shares:</b>Kunbo Medical will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In addition to the central bank's decision, investors should also pay close attention to the latest developments in the global fight against the epidemic, the situation in the Middle East, the U.S. government debt ceiling, the U.S. government's tax increase and economic stimulus plan, etc. These fundamental news and data will bring greater volatility to the market. Next, let's count the timing of this week's blockbuster events.</p><p><b>Important economic data at a glance</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Monday, September 20: opening situation, China's Mid-Autumn Festival market closed, US real estate index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/249cad0d1fc349a963c2046b613f748b\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the arrangement of the Mid-Autumn Festival in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, September 19th to September 21st is a statutory holiday in the mainland, September 22nd is a public holiday in Hong Kong, and the A-share market will be closed on September 20th and 21st, while the Hong Kong stock market will open normally. The A-share market will open on September 22nd, and the Hong Kong stock market will open normally from September 23rd.</p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>Investors focus on the U.S. housing market index. At the same time, pay attention to the trend of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds, so as to find the direction of changes in market sentiment.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, September 21: RBA monetary policy meeting minutes, U.S. housing market data</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81529564792de14edd6f4181dfa8b247\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>As for economic data,</b>Pay attention to the US housing market data. Data show that U.S. house prices rose 18% year-on-year in July, the largest year-on-year increase in the 45 years since the index was compiled. At present, American house prices have increased by more than 41% since the peak of the real estate bubble era in 2006. At the same time, housing rental prices have also been rising all the way.</p><p><b>In terms of financial events,</b>Pay attention to the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting released by the Reserve Bank of Australia. In its September resolution, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the benchmark interest rate and the 3-year Treasury Bond yield target unchanged at 0.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia stressed that rate hike conditions are not likely until 2024 at the earliest.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFIX\">Stitch Fix</a>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, September 22: Bank of Japan resolution, EIA crude oil inventories, Federal Reserve September resolution</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38cf13e2739bb97914526a632a78d618\" tg-width=\"1086\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>As for economic data,</b>Mainly focus on the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week to September 17, and the one-year loan market quotation interest rate in China to September 22.</p><p><b>In terms of events, the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision.</b>The Bank of Japan said that if necessary, the Bank of Japan will further relax its policy and keep short-term and long-term interest rates at the current level or lower. Data show that as of June this year, Japan's total holdings of US debt reached US $1.277 trillion, making it the largest creditor of US overseas bonds.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GIS\">General Mills</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, September 23: U.S. initial jobless claims and manufacturing PMI, Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e0bef211bd86260884b53453a2b0742\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic data, the US Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates (upper limit) until September 22.</b>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) votes on Federal Funds rate by holding discussion meetings. They hold regular meetings eight times a year in Washington, D.C., and their meeting schedule is made public every year. The rise and fall of interest rates reflects the quality of the economy.</p><p><b>In terms of events, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference.</b>The Federal Reserve is the most watched central bank in the world. They are expected to start reducing the scale of monthly bond purchases as early as this month. This is an unconventional measure taken to stimulate the recovery of the U.S. economy since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out last year. However, due to some recent U.S. economic data falling short of expectations, the Federal Reserve may not take action until later this year.</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, September 24: German IFO business climate index, U.S. leading indicators, Fed official speeches</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100bf8670e0bda28b08adad5fcba3b44\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Economic data</b>, pay attention to Japan's August core CPI annual rate, Germany's September IFO business climate index, etc.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>，<b>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Vice Chairman Clarida, and Governor Bowman delivered speeches.</b>It is crucial to judge the direction of the Fed's policy, because this is Clarida's first statement since the Fed's decision on Wednesday.</p><p><b>New shares</b>, Kunbo Medical announced that the company will issue an IPO from September 13 to 16, and plans to issue 89.355 million shares, of which the Hong Kong offering accounts for 10%, the international offering accounts for 90%, and a 15% over-allotment option is attached; The offer price per share is HK $17.20-HK $18.70, and trading on the Stock Exchange is expected to begin on September 24 (Friday).</p><p>According to the prospectus, Kunbo Medical plans to enhance its influence in the Chinese and global interventional pulmonology market by increasing sales in existing hospitals, strengthening doctor education and patient interaction, and penetrating new hospitals.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview: Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision! Kunbo Medical will be launched soon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview: Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision! Kunbo Medical will be launched soon\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-20 07:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>In terms of events:</b>The U.S. will announce a cap on interest rate decisions. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting, and markets will be watching closely for signals on when the Fed will start tapering its asset purchase program.<b>In terms of data:</b>The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (upper limit), the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 18, and the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week ending September 17 are worthy of attention.<b>Financial report:</b>Adobe, Nike, FedEx, Gaotu, New Oriental, etc. will announce financial reports one after another.<b>For new shares:</b>Kunbo Medical will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In addition to the central bank's decision, investors should also pay close attention to the latest developments in the global fight against the epidemic, the situation in the Middle East, the U.S. government debt ceiling, the U.S. government's tax increase and economic stimulus plan, etc. These fundamental news and data will bring greater volatility to the market. Next, let's count the timing of this week's blockbuster events.</p><p><b>Important economic data at a glance</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Monday, September 20: opening situation, China's Mid-Autumn Festival market closed, US real estate index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/249cad0d1fc349a963c2046b613f748b\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the arrangement of the Mid-Autumn Festival in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, September 19th to September 21st is a statutory holiday in the mainland, September 22nd is a public holiday in Hong Kong, and the A-share market will be closed on September 20th and 21st, while the Hong Kong stock market will open normally. The A-share market will open on September 22nd, and the Hong Kong stock market will open normally from September 23rd.</p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>Investors focus on the U.S. housing market index. At the same time, pay attention to the trend of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds, so as to find the direction of changes in market sentiment.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, September 21: RBA monetary policy meeting minutes, U.S. housing market data</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81529564792de14edd6f4181dfa8b247\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>As for economic data,</b>Pay attention to the US housing market data. Data show that U.S. house prices rose 18% year-on-year in July, the largest year-on-year increase in the 45 years since the index was compiled. At present, American house prices have increased by more than 41% since the peak of the real estate bubble era in 2006. At the same time, housing rental prices have also been rising all the way.</p><p><b>In terms of financial events,</b>Pay attention to the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting released by the Reserve Bank of Australia. In its September resolution, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the benchmark interest rate and the 3-year Treasury Bond yield target unchanged at 0.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia stressed that rate hike conditions are not likely until 2024 at the earliest.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFIX\">Stitch Fix</a>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, September 22: Bank of Japan resolution, EIA crude oil inventories, Federal Reserve September resolution</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38cf13e2739bb97914526a632a78d618\" tg-width=\"1086\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>As for economic data,</b>Mainly focus on the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week to September 17, and the one-year loan market quotation interest rate in China to September 22.</p><p><b>In terms of events, the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision.</b>The Bank of Japan said that if necessary, the Bank of Japan will further relax its policy and keep short-term and long-term interest rates at the current level or lower. Data show that as of June this year, Japan's total holdings of US debt reached US $1.277 trillion, making it the largest creditor of US overseas bonds.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GIS\">General Mills</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, September 23: U.S. initial jobless claims and manufacturing PMI, Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e0bef211bd86260884b53453a2b0742\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic data, the US Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates (upper limit) until September 22.</b>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) votes on Federal Funds rate by holding discussion meetings. They hold regular meetings eight times a year in Washington, D.C., and their meeting schedule is made public every year. The rise and fall of interest rates reflects the quality of the economy.</p><p><b>In terms of events, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference.</b>The Federal Reserve is the most watched central bank in the world. They are expected to start reducing the scale of monthly bond purchases as early as this month. This is an unconventional measure taken to stimulate the recovery of the U.S. economy since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out last year. However, due to some recent U.S. economic data falling short of expectations, the Federal Reserve may not take action until later this year.</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, September 24: German IFO business climate index, U.S. leading indicators, Fed official speeches</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100bf8670e0bda28b08adad5fcba3b44\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Economic data</b>, pay attention to Japan's August core CPI annual rate, Germany's September IFO business climate index, etc.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>，<b>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Vice Chairman Clarida, and Governor Bowman delivered speeches.</b>It is crucial to judge the direction of the Fed's policy, because this is Clarida's first statement since the Fed's decision on Wednesday.</p><p><b>New shares</b>, Kunbo Medical announced that the company will issue an IPO from September 13 to 16, and plans to issue 89.355 million shares, of which the Hong Kong offering accounts for 10%, the international offering accounts for 90%, and a 15% over-allotment option is attached; The offer price per share is HK $17.20-HK $18.70, and trading on the Stock Exchange is expected to begin on September 24 (Friday).</p><p>According to the prospectus, Kunbo Medical plans to enhance its influence in the Chinese and global interventional pulmonology market by increasing sales in existing hospitals, strengthening doctor education and patient interaction, and penetrating new hospitals.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46744ceebcd5f9f6cbe09f85295d7cfe","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182753548","content_text":"事件方面：美国将公布利率决定上限。美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将举行为期两天的货币政策会议，市场将密切关注美联储何时开始缩减资产购买计划的信号。\n\n\n数据方面：美联储利率决定(上限)、美国至9月18日当周初请失业金人数、美国至9月17日当周EIA原油库存等值得关注。\n\n\n财报方面：Adobe、Nike、联邦快递、高途、新东方等将陆续公布财报。\n\n\n新股方面：堃博医疗将在港交所上市。\n\n除了央行决议，投资者还要密切关注全球抗疫的最新进展、中东局势、美国政府债务上限、美国政府的加税和经济刺激计划等，这些基本面的消息和数据会给本的市场带来更大波动。接下来让我们细数本周重磅事件的时点。\n重要经济数据一览\n9月20日周一关键词：开盘情况，中国中秋节休市，美国房产指数根据沪港深三地中秋期间安排，9月19日到9月21日为内地法定假期，9月22日为香港公众假期，9月20日、9月21日A股休市，港股正常开市，9月22日A股开市，港股休市，9月23日起A港股市正常开市。\n经济数据方面，投资者重点关注美国的房产市场指数。同时关注美股和美债的走势，从而找到市场情绪变化的方向。\n9月21日周二关键词：澳洲联储货币政策会议纪要，美国房市数据经济数据方面，关注美国房市数据。数据显示，7月份美国房价同比上涨18%，创该指数编制45年来最大的同比涨幅。当前的美国房价较2006年房地产泡沫时代高峰以来已增长逾41%。与此同时，房屋租赁价格也一路走高。\n财经事件方面，关注澳洲联储公布9月货币政策会议纪要。澳洲联储在9月决议中，将基准利率及3年期国债收益率目标均维持在0.1％不变。澳洲联储强调， 加息条件最早要到2024年才可能出现。\n财报方面，联邦快递、Adobe、Stitch Fix等将公布财报。\n9月22日周三关键词：日本央行决议，EIA原油库存，美联储9月决议经济数据方面，主要关注美国至9月17日当周EIA原油库存，中国至9月22日一年期贷款市场报价利率。\n事件方面，日本央行公布利率决议。日本央行称，如果有必要，日本央行将会进一步放宽政策，短期、长期利率维持在目前或更低的水平。数据显示，截止到今年6月，日本持有美债总额达1.277万亿美元，是美国海外债券的第一大债主国。\n财报方面，通用磨坊、高途、黑莓等将公布财报。\n9月23日周四关键词：美国初请失业金和制造业PMI，美联储利率决定(上限)经济数据方面，美国至9月22日美联储利率决定(上限)。联邦公开市场委员会(The Federal Open Market Committee ，简称 FOMC)通过举行讨论会议投票决定联邦基金利率，它们每年都要在华盛顿特区召开八次例行会议，其会议日程安排表每年都会向公众公开。利率的升降，反映了经济的好坏。\n事件方面，美联储FOMC公布利率决议，美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会。美联储是全世界最受瞩目的央行，他们最早有望在本月开启减少每月购债规模，这是去年新冠疫情爆发以来为刺激美国经济复苏而采取的非常规手段。但由于近期美国一些经济数据不及预期，因此美联储也可能会在今年晚些时候才开始行动。\n9月24日周五关键词：德国IFO商业景气指数，美国领先指标，美联储官员讲话经济数据方面，关注日本8月核心CPI年率、德国9月IFO商业景气指数等。\n事件方面，美联储主席鲍威尔、副主席克拉里达、理事鲍曼发表讲话。对于判断美联储的政策走向很关键，因为这是美联储周三决议之后的克拉里达的首次表态。\n新股方面，堃博医疗公布，公司于9月13日-16日招股，拟发行8935.5万股股份，其中香港发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附有15%超额配股权；每股发售价17.20港元-18.70港元，预期将于9月24日（周五）开始在联交所开始买卖。\n招股书中显示，堃博医疗计划通过提高在现有医院中的销售额，以及加强医生教育和患者互动，渗透新的医院，来增强其在中国和全球介入性肺病学市场的影响力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054679664,"gmtCreate":1655388060058,"gmtModify":1676535627984,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054679664","repostId":"1175075343","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1175075343","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655387468,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175075343?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-16 21:51","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"U.S. chip stocks collectively fell, Micron Technology fell more than 5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175075343","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月16日，美股芯片股集体走低，美光科技跌超5%，英伟达、AMD、阿斯麦跌超4%，英特尔跌近3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On June 16, U.S. chip stocks collectively fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Fell nearly 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99096fe68ff55e82b105991d287b1e0e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. chip stocks collectively fell, Micron Technology fell more than 5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. chip stocks collectively fell, Micron Technology fell more than 5%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-16 21:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On June 16, U.S. chip stocks collectively fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Fell nearly 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99096fe68ff55e82b105991d287b1e0e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1a8c5698b6f32ee1637556a15bb35b","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4579":"人工智能","MU":"美光科技","BK4141":"半导体产品"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175075343","content_text":"6月16日，美股芯片股集体走低，美光科技跌超5%，英伟达、AMD、阿斯麦跌超4%，英特尔跌近3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055424017,"gmtCreate":1655304467739,"gmtModify":1676535608884,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055424017","repostId":"2243091930","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055425687,"gmtCreate":1655304394149,"gmtModify":1676535608892,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055425687","repostId":"1183345309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183345309","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655275365,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183345309?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-15 14:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183345309","media":"第一财经","summary":"纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员","content":"<p><div>\"Suddenly, there's a consensus,\" said Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange. From 50 basis points to 75 basis points, the Fed's rate hike expectations seem to have changed dramatically overnight, and investors seem to have completed mental construction overnight. \"Suddenly, the market reached a consensus.\" Timothy Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange, explained to China Business News that the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released on the 10th clearly shows that the inflation problem that the American people are most concerned about is still worsening. \"Fed officials must tell consumers...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-15 14:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>\"Suddenly, there's a consensus,\" said Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange. From 50 basis points to 75 basis points, the Fed's rate hike expectations seem to have changed dramatically overnight, and investors seem to have completed mental construction overnight. \"Suddenly, the market reached a consensus.\" Timothy Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange, explained to China Business News that the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released on the 10th clearly shows that the inflation problem that the American people are most concerned about is still worsening. \"Fed officials must tell consumers...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183345309","content_text":"纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员安德森（Timothy Anderson）向第一财经记者解释道，10日出炉的5月消费者价格指数（CPI）和6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数明确显示，美国民众最关心的通胀问题仍在恶化。“联储官员必须向消费者和投资者表态，抗通胀，他们是认真的。”安德森认为，“认真”的表现形式就是扩大加息的幅度。截至第一财经记者发稿时，芝商所利率观察工具（FedWatch Tool）显示，押注15日美联储加息75个基点的概率由前一日的34.6%骤然升至95.8%，而一周前，仅为3.9%。高盛、摩根大通、富国银行、德意志银行、巴克莱和杰夫瑞等多家机构均预测，美联储将在15日后宣布75个基点加息，若预测准确，这将成1994年以来美联储最大幅度的单次加息。6月加息75个基点的概率高达95.8%（图源：芝商所官网）纠错？美联储以往通常尽可能与市场充分沟通，避免市场震荡。在6月4日开始的静默期之前，包括鲍威尔在内的不少美联储官员表示支持本周加息50个基点，并在7月再次加息50个基点。那么，市场为何认为美联储将会“食言”？券商OANDA高级市场分析师莫亚（Edward Moya）对第一财经记者表示，美联储转变态度实则是纠正错误。“一直以来，鲍威尔对通胀存在错判，如果美联储再不积极加息，恐有政策失误的风险。”他称，美联储正试图避免上世纪70年代犯过的错误，75个基点的加息幅度将是向正确的政策方向迈出一步。对冲基金Pershing Square创始人阿克曼（Bill Ackman）则认为，这将是美联储挽回市场信心的机会。他表示，美联储允许通胀失控的现实，令股市和信贷市场对美联储失去信心，他甚至认为，6月、7月及随后的议息会议加息100个基点会是更好的方案。“美联储越早达到终端利率，就能越快开始放松货币政策，市场就能越早实现复苏。”他说。靴子落地后，市场能否筑底？美股正在抢跑美联储，为更激进的加息前景重新定价。隔夜，标普500指数五连阴，继续于熊市区间下探，跌至2021年1月以来的低位，较其1月历史高位跌超22%。上次熊市期间，标普500指数较前高下跌33.9%才开始反弹。另有数据显示，标普500指数熊市平均持续时间超过18个月。美国银行最新月度调查显示，鹰派央行被投资者视为市场面临的最大尾部风险，全球经济衰退是第二大风险，基金经理对全球经济前景的悲观情绪达到历史之最，对滞胀的担忧达到2008年金融危机以来的最高水平。美银首席全球股票策略师哈奈特（Michael Hartnett）在报告中写道，华尔街悲观情绪堪忧。莫亚对第一财经记者表示，即便美联储靴子落地，短期之内华尔街将很难看到任何可能的反弹。安德森则认为，金融市场将欣然接受75个基点的加息，可能不会立刻看到美股反弹，但股市的下行压力应该会得到一定缓解。本周是央行超级周，除了美联储，英格兰银行、日本央行等都将公布利率决议，然而，各国都面临自身的经济挑战，在能源、食品价格飙升，供应链问题加剧等全球问题上越发难以独善其身。荷兰国际集团（ING）宏观研究全球主管布热斯基（Carsten Brzeski）表示：“各大央行好像自己都慌了，市场突然需要接受这个高利率的新时代，因此股市出现大幅调整，也是合理的。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056399638,"gmtCreate":1654936400824,"gmtModify":1676535537334,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056399638","repostId":"2242634960","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050695669,"gmtCreate":1654179895751,"gmtModify":1676535407717,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050695669","repostId":"1125287126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125287126","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654165500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125287126?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-02 18:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Who's to blame for the recession, Biden or Powell?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125287126","media":"金十数据","summary":"拜登已将物价快速上涨的责任推给了美联储，但白宫可能还没有为接下来的事情做好准备。当中期选举年遇上高通胀肆虐时，最好的政治举措可能是将矛头推向央行。毕竟，稳定物价是他们重要的工作任务之一。不过，政府领导","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Biden has shifted the blame for the rapid rise in prices to the Fed, but the White House may not be ready for what comes next. When high inflation rages in a mid-election year, the best political move may be to push the finger at the central bank. After all, stabilizing prices is one of their important tasks. Government leaders may find, though, that the price of curbing inflation is a recession. It is unclear whether they are prepared for this outcome.</p><p>With prices in Europe, America and Australia rising at the fastest rate in decades, it is reasonable for central bankers to continue their tasks without political pressure. In theory, at least, central banks should be able to act quickly and not require inter-party haggling like government legislation.</p><p>For the government, this is a win-win situation: they can shirk the responsibility of failure while enjoying the joy of success. On Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden's speech to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell carried a strong sense of authorization. Biden declared:</p><p>\"My plan is to tackle inflation, and it starts with a simple proposition: respect the Fed, respect the independence of the Fed, which I have done now and will continue to do.\" The autonomy of the Fed is all seen as the gold standard-just as previous US President Trump abused Powell and offered to remove him. Even at the best of times, that independence isn't entirely pure, and Fed officials keep an eye on the mood in Congress.</p><p><b>So why does Biden feel the need to emphasize that Powell is free to play? Columnist Daniel Moss pointed out that the reason is that the chairman of the Federal Reserve should recognize the opportunities and dangers implied in the process of free play. The subtext is that you can tighten economic policy as much as you want, but it's your responsibility, and you have to be responsible for it.</b></p><p>Of course, while leaders want inflation to pull back, they also like a strong labor market and hate recessions. Will Biden pay the ultimate price for ordering Powell to act? Moss is skeptical.</p><p>Powell may not want a recession either, but he has become acutely aware that the global economy is going downhill. It is inevitable to compare him with Paul Volcker, who was the chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. Volcker stopped inflation at the expense of a severe recession, and he had unpleasant conversations with Reagan during his administration. In November's midterm elections, the polls are already bad for Democrats. Slowing economic growth and a cooling job market won't help.</p><p>As heroic as Volcker is, he may not be a perfect analogy under the current circumstances. The world in the early 1980s was quite controlled: the Cold War was raging, and half of the world had almost no capital markets. Volcker is hitting inflation with great force as he does so, because inflation has been worsening for at least a decade.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>There's no comparison to what's going on now, wrote global economist Ethan Harris in a recent report:</p><p>\"The last thing the world needs right now is a Volcker-sized policy shock. Volcker, more or less deliberately, created one of the biggest recessions in modern history. This time is different.\" While there's nothing central banks can do about supply chain bottlenecks, the bottlenecks may have peaked and a key measure of inflation could pull back before the end of the year.</p><p>Biden's remarks should also be viewed in the context of Washington's current broader defense. Earlier this week, Biden wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal about how he would curb inflation. The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls report on Friday may be the most politically significant economic report before inflation hits.<b>Senior officials have been cautious in saying that job growth could slow, a situation that Biden described as \"a sign that we are successfully entering the next phase of our recovery.\"</b>Now seems like a good time to set things right. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview with CNN that she mispredicted last year that price increases would be short-lived.</p><p>Yellen, who served as Fed chairman before Powell, is a good example. After the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, central banks around the world were surprised that there was no inflation. In fact, not every optimistic number hides a price increase. This makes policymakers from all central banks focus on promoting the warming of the labor market. They declare to be more inclined to outcomes than predictions.</p><p>The risk today is that if central banks need to wait for a clear and unambiguous sign that inflation is over, they may miss the opportunity to reverse the economy's downward turn. This may prevent them from not cutting interest rates more times in the future. This cycle will keep repeating itself.</p><p><b>The result is that central bank independence will be an attractive way to set the price of a currency because central banks can act quickly if needed.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who's to blame for the recession, Biden or Powell?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho's to blame for the recession, Biden or Powell?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-02 18:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Biden has shifted the blame for the rapid rise in prices to the Fed, but the White House may not be ready for what comes next. When high inflation rages in a mid-election year, the best political move may be to push the finger at the central bank. After all, stabilizing prices is one of their important tasks. Government leaders may find, though, that the price of curbing inflation is a recession. It is unclear whether they are prepared for this outcome.</p><p>With prices in Europe, America and Australia rising at the fastest rate in decades, it is reasonable for central bankers to continue their tasks without political pressure. In theory, at least, central banks should be able to act quickly and not require inter-party haggling like government legislation.</p><p>For the government, this is a win-win situation: they can shirk the responsibility of failure while enjoying the joy of success. On Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden's speech to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell carried a strong sense of authorization. Biden declared:</p><p>\"My plan is to tackle inflation, and it starts with a simple proposition: respect the Fed, respect the independence of the Fed, which I have done now and will continue to do.\" The autonomy of the Fed is all seen as the gold standard-just as previous US President Trump abused Powell and offered to remove him. Even at the best of times, that independence isn't entirely pure, and Fed officials keep an eye on the mood in Congress.</p><p><b>So why does Biden feel the need to emphasize that Powell is free to play? Columnist Daniel Moss pointed out that the reason is that the chairman of the Federal Reserve should recognize the opportunities and dangers implied in the process of free play. The subtext is that you can tighten economic policy as much as you want, but it's your responsibility, and you have to be responsible for it.</b></p><p>Of course, while leaders want inflation to pull back, they also like a strong labor market and hate recessions. Will Biden pay the ultimate price for ordering Powell to act? Moss is skeptical.</p><p>Powell may not want a recession either, but he has become acutely aware that the global economy is going downhill. It is inevitable to compare him with Paul Volcker, who was the chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. Volcker stopped inflation at the expense of a severe recession, and he had unpleasant conversations with Reagan during his administration. In November's midterm elections, the polls are already bad for Democrats. Slowing economic growth and a cooling job market won't help.</p><p>As heroic as Volcker is, he may not be a perfect analogy under the current circumstances. The world in the early 1980s was quite controlled: the Cold War was raging, and half of the world had almost no capital markets. Volcker is hitting inflation with great force as he does so, because inflation has been worsening for at least a decade.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>There's no comparison to what's going on now, wrote global economist Ethan Harris in a recent report:</p><p>\"The last thing the world needs right now is a Volcker-sized policy shock. Volcker, more or less deliberately, created one of the biggest recessions in modern history. This time is different.\" While there's nothing central banks can do about supply chain bottlenecks, the bottlenecks may have peaked and a key measure of inflation could pull back before the end of the year.</p><p>Biden's remarks should also be viewed in the context of Washington's current broader defense. Earlier this week, Biden wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal about how he would curb inflation. The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls report on Friday may be the most politically significant economic report before inflation hits.<b>Senior officials have been cautious in saying that job growth could slow, a situation that Biden described as \"a sign that we are successfully entering the next phase of our recovery.\"</b>Now seems like a good time to set things right. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview with CNN that she mispredicted last year that price increases would be short-lived.</p><p>Yellen, who served as Fed chairman before Powell, is a good example. After the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, central banks around the world were surprised that there was no inflation. In fact, not every optimistic number hides a price increase. This makes policymakers from all central banks focus on promoting the warming of the labor market. They declare to be more inclined to outcomes than predictions.</p><p>The risk today is that if central banks need to wait for a clear and unambiguous sign that inflation is over, they may miss the opportunity to reverse the economy's downward turn. This may prevent them from not cutting interest rates more times in the future. This cycle will keep repeating itself.</p><p><b>The result is that central bank independence will be an attractive way to set the price of a currency because central banks can act quickly if needed.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/95000\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59f80b4f5ca39b50a8c2a9898ba64544","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/95000","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125287126","content_text":"拜登已将物价快速上涨的责任推给了美联储，但白宫可能还没有为接下来的事情做好准备。当中期选举年遇上高通胀肆虐时，最好的政治举措可能是将矛头推向央行。毕竟，稳定物价是他们重要的工作任务之一。不过，政府领导人可能会发现，抑制通胀的代价是经济衰退。目前尚不清楚他们是否准备好应对这一结果。随着欧洲、美洲和澳洲的物价正在以几十年最快的速度上涨，让央行官员们在没有政治压力的情况下继续他们的任务是合理的。至少在理论上，央行应该能够迅速采取行动，不会像政府立法那样需要党派之间的讨价还价。对于政府来说，这是一个双赢的局面：他们可以一边为推卸失败的责任，一边享受成功的喜悦。周二，美国总统拜登对美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话中，就带有一种强烈的授权意味。拜登宣称：“我的计划是解决通货膨胀问题，这始于一个简单的命题：尊重美联储，尊重美联储的独立性，我现在已经这么做了，而且将继续这样做。”美联储的自主权都被视为是黄金标准——就像前任美国总统特朗普辱骂鲍威尔并提出罢免他一样。即使在最好的时候，这种独立性也不是完全纯粹的，美联储官员会密切关注国会的情绪。那么，为什么拜登觉得有必要去强调鲍威尔可以自由发挥呢？专栏作家Daniel Moss指出，原因在于，美联储主席应当会认识到自由发挥过程中所隐含的机遇和危险。潜台词是，你想如何紧缩经济政策都可以，但这是你的责任，你得对它负责。当然，虽然领导人希望通胀回落，但他们也喜欢强劲的劳动力市场，讨厌经济衰退。拜登是否会为因命令鲍威尔采取行动而付出最终代价？Moss对此持怀疑态度。鲍威尔可能也不想要经济衰退，但他已经敏锐地意识到全球经济正在走下坡路。人们不可避免地将他与1979年-1987年担任美联储主席的保罗•沃尔克相提并论。沃尔克以严重的经济衰退为代价阻止了通胀，并且他在里根执政期间也与里根有过令人不快的谈话。在11月的中期选举中，民意调查对于民主党人来说已经很糟糕了。经济增长放缓和就业市场降温并不会对此什么帮助。尽管沃尔克很英勇，但在当前情况下，他可能不是一个完美的类比。1980年代初期的世界相当受控制：冷战进行得很激烈，全球一半地区几乎没有资本市场。沃尔克在他这样做的时候以巨大的力量打击通胀，因为通货膨胀至少已经恶化了十年。美国银行全球经济学家伊桑哈里斯在最近的一份报告中写道，这与现在的情况无法相提并论：“世界现在最不需要的就是沃尔克规模的政策冲击。沃尔克或多或少地故意制造了现代历史上最大的衰退之一。这次不一样。”虽然央行对供应链瓶颈无能为力，但瓶颈可能已经达到顶峰，衡量通胀的一项关键指标可能会在年底前回落。拜登的言论也应该放在华盛顿当前更广泛的防御背景下去看待。本周早些时候，拜登为《华尔街日报》撰写了一篇关于他将如何遏制通胀的专栏文章。即将在周五发布的月度非农就业报告可能是通胀爆发前最具政治意义的经济报告。高级官员一直谨慎地表示，就业增长可能会放缓，而拜登将这种情况描述为“这是我们成功进入复苏的下一阶段的迹象”。现在似乎是纠正错误的好时机。美国财政部长耶伦（Janet Yellen）在接受CNN采访时表示，她去年错误地预测了物价上涨将是短暂的。而在鲍威尔之前担任美联储主席的耶伦则是一个很好的例子。2007-2009年全球金融危机之后，全球央行都因没有出现通胀而感到吃惊。实际上，并非每一个乐观的数字背后都隐藏着价格上涨。这使得从各个央行的政策制定者都专注于推动劳动力市场的升温。他们宣称更倾向于结果，而不是预测。如今的风险是，如果央行们需要等待通胀已经结束的明确和明确迹象，他们可能会错过扭转经济转向下行的机会。这可能会使他们不能不在未来降息更多次数。这种循环将不断重演下去。结果是，央行的独立性将是一种设定货币价格的有吸引力的方式，因为如果有需要，央行可以迅速采取行动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024848020,"gmtCreate":1653863266160,"gmtModify":1676535350858,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024848020","repostId":"1169637590","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025651922,"gmtCreate":1653690940966,"gmtModify":1676535325801,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025651922","repostId":"1157934587","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157934587","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1653655854,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157934587?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-27 20:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Howard Marks' latest memo: The rhythm of a bull market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157934587","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在$橡树资本$联合创始人霍华德·马克斯这篇名为《牛市的韵律》的最新备忘录中，对牛市周期规律进行了分析，并指出通过投资者行为可判断出当下所处阶段，在股市崩盘之前趁早离场。马克斯表示，投资者必须知道牛市心理何时占据主导地位，并保持必要的谨慎态度。我先提前声明，本次备忘录并不能预估市场的潜在方向。标普500指数先是在2020年2月19日创下3386点的历史新高，随后在短短34天内重挫三分之一，并在3月23日跌至2237点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Over the past hundred years, the stock market has experienced ups and downs, and has never stopped. Countless cycles have passed through the historical sky like bright meteors.</p><p>Why are there cycles, and why do investors invest countless energy into the ongoing struggle against market volatility? Because their investment psychology is always affecting the direction of the market. As long as humans are involved in investing, we will see them happen again and again.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Co-founder Howard Marks<b>In this latest memo titled \"Bull Market Rhymes\", it analyzes the patterns of bull market cycles, and points out that investors' behavior can judge the current stage and leave the market early before the stock market crashes.</b></p><p>Out of the pursuit of wealth dreams, investors will lack appropriate fear in the bull market frenzy, and the emergence of this frenzy heralds the approaching risk.</p><p>Max said,<b>Investors must know when bull market psychology is dominating and exercise the necessary caution. \"Bull mentality\" is not a commendatory term, it means unwary behavior and tolerance for high risks. Investors should be worried, not encouraged</b>：</p><p>It is risk aversion and fear of loss that keeps markets safe and sane. Marks noted<b>, asset prices depend on fundamentals and how people view those fundamentals</b>。 High returns in a bull market make people more confident that new things, small probability events, and optimistic outcomes will happen. When people are convinced of the value of these things, they tend to come to the conclusion that there are no stocks that are too expensive. At this time, new entrants bought heavily, and the stock market remained high. Caution, selectivity and discipline disappear when they are most needed.</p><p>Max also cited the current stock market as an example:</p><p>On Wall Street today, the news of interest rate cuts pushed the stock market higher, but then the expectation of inflation caused by lower interest rates pushed the stock market lower. Then, people realized that interest rate cuts could stimulate the depressed economy, and this expectation pushed the stock market higher. After that, the stock market eventually fell amid the fear that the overheating economy would lead to another rate hike. Marks bluntly said that he believes in the enduring investment motto, so<b>The greatest investor behavior should be \"where the wise begins and where the fool ends\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1237ed2d4679f28b36508f982605e52f\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The following is the full text of the memorandum:</p><p>Although I use a lot of aphorisms and quotations in my memo, only a few make it to my top list, and one of my favorites is Mark Twain's famous quote:</p><p>History doesn't repeat itself, but it does repeat itself in similar rhymes. It is well documented that Mark Twain said the first four words in 1874, but there is no accurate evidence that he said the latter words.</p><p>There have been a lot of people who have said similar things over the years. In 1965, psychoanalyst Theodor Reik expressed the same view in his article entitled \"Unreachable\". He added a few more words himself, and I think his expression is the best:</p><p>The cycle is repeated, with ups and downs, but the process is basically the same, with little change. Some say that history repeats itself, but that may not be quite accurate, history simply repeats itself in similar rhymes. The past investment events will not repeat themselves, but the main theme of the events does reappear, especially those related to investment behavior, which is exactly what I am studying.</p><p>In the past two years, the cycle written by Reik has experienced ups and downs, which has attracted market attention. What strikes me in particular is the reappearance of the typical style in investment behavior, which will be the theme of this memo.</p><p>Let me state in advance that this memo does not predict the potential direction of the market. As an example, the market's bullish behavior began when it hit the bottom in March 2020, but since then, there have been serious problems both inside the economy (inflation) and outside the economy (Russia-Ukraine conflict), and there have been major corrections. No one, including me, can know how these things together will affect the future.</p><p>My purpose in writing this memo is simply to place recent events in the context of history and discover some implicit lessons from them. This is crucial because we must go back 22 years, back to the bursting of the tech-media-telecom bubble in 2000, to see the beginning of the real bull market and the end of the resulting bear market. Many readers have not experienced the events at that time because they started investing late.</p><p>You may ask \"How were market earnings before the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the pandemic of 2020 caused the market to collapse?\"</p><p>In my opinion, prior to these two crises, the market was rising gradually, not along a parabola. The rise wasn't driven by frenzy, the stock price wasn't pushed to insane heights, and the high stock price wasn't the cause of any of the crises. The 2008-2009 crisis stemmed from the emergence of the real estate market and subprime mortgage securitization, and the 2020 collapse was due to the epidemic in COVID-19 pandemic and the government's shutdown of the economy to control the epidemic.</p><p>For the aforementioned \"real bull market\", my definition of it does not come from the investment encyclopedia website (Investopedia):</p><p><ul><li>The price of an asset or security in a financial market continues to rise for a period of time.</p><p></li><li>The market usually sees a 20% rise after a 20% decline in the stock price.</p><p></li></ul>The first definition is too bland and fails to capture the core sentiment of investors in a bull market. The second definition provides a false precision. A bull market should not be defined by a percentage change in price. For me, it is best described in terms of how it makes people feel, the investor psychology behind it, and the investment behavior caused by it.</p><p>(I started investing before the numerical criteria for bull and bear markets were set, and I think such criteria are meaningless. Does it really matter whether the S&P 500 index is down 19.9% or 20.1%? I still prefer the old-school definition of a bear market-nerve-racking).</p><p><b>01. Excess and correction</b></p><p>My second book is The Cycle Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side. As we all know, I am a student of cycles and a believer in cycles. As an investor over the years, I have gone through several important cycles (and also received education).</p><p>I believe that knowing where you are in the market cycle can tell us what will happen next. But when I finished writing this book two-thirds of the way, I suddenly thought of a question that I had never considered before: Why are there cycles?</p><p>For example, since the S&P 500 was born in 1957, the average annual return rate in these 65 years is slightly higher than 10%. Why can't its return rate be 10% every year? Here, to add to the question I raised in my memo \"The Golden Mean\" in July 2004, why did the S&P 500 index only return between 8% and 12% six times during this period, and why did it perform so far from this 90% of the time?</p><p>After thinking about it for a period of time, I think it can be explained that there is \"excess and correction\" in the market.</p><p>If you compare the stock market to a machine, you want it to function consistently and steadily over time, the idea is reasonable. However, I think the significant influence of investors' psychological state on their decision-making can largely explain the reasons for market volatility.</p><p>When investors start aggressively bullish, they tend to draw the following conclusions.</p><p>First, everything will always go up; Secondly, no matter how much they pay for an asset, others will buy it from them at a higher price (i.e. the \"bigger fool\" theory) because they are highly optimistic about the market:</p><p><ul><li>The stock price will rise faster than the company's profit growth, and the increase will be much higher than the fair value (excess increase).</p><p></li><li>After that, the investment environment began to disappoint, and the stupid move of paying high prices became conspicuous. The stock price would fall to fair value (revision), and then fall further below that price level.</p><p></li><li>A decline in the stock price will further trigger market pessimism, which will cause the stock price to fall far below its own value (excessive decline).</p><p></li><li>Finally, buying at the bottom will help the sluggish stock price rebound to its fair value (revision).</p><p></li></ul>Excessive gains can lead to higher-than-average returns for a period of time, while excessive declines can also lead to lower-than-average returns for a period of time. Of course, there may be other factors at play, but I think, \"excesses and corrections\" can explain most of the situation. During 2020-2021, we saw the stock market go somewhat excessively, and now we see them being corrected.</p><p><b>02. Bull market psychology</b></p><p>In a bull market, a favorable environment will lead the stock price to rise and boost investor confidence, and this investment confidence will induce aggressive operations, which will further trigger the stock price to rise, and then there will be a more optimistic investment mentality and continuous risk-taking operations.</p><p>This rising spiral is the essence of a bull market, and its rising process may seem overwhelming.</p><p>In the early days of the pandemic, we witnessed a typical asset price crash. The S&P 500 index first hit a record high of 3,386 points on February 19, 2020, then fell by one-third in just 34 days, and fell to 2,237 points on March 23. But then, with the joint efforts of various forces, the stock price rose sharply again:</p><p><ul><li>Among them, the Federal Reserve lowered its Federal Funds rate to near zero and announced large-scale economic stimulus measures together with the Ministry of Finance.</p><p></li><li>These actions have convinced investors that state institutions will do whatever it takes to stabilize the economy.</p><p></li><li>Interest rate cuts significantly reduce the expected return on investment and affect its relative attractiveness.</p><p></li><li>These factors combine to force investors to start taking risks that arise in the short term.</p><p></li><li>Then asset prices rose: by the end of August of that year, the S&P 500 had recovered all its lost ground and rose beyond its February high.</p><p></li><li>FAAMG (Facebook<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>), software stocks and other tech stocks rose sharply, driving the market higher.</p><p></li><li>In the end, investors came to the conclusion that they could expect the stock market to continue to rise, which was also in line with their usual mentality in the bull market.</p><p></li></ul>Just like the last point above, the most important thing in bull market psychology is that most people think that the rise in stock prices is a positive signal that indicates the future market, and many people begin to become optimistic. Only a few people will suspect that this kind of market is excessively rising, and its income depends on future expectations, so the rise will not last, and the market will reverse.</p><p>This reminds me of another favorite maxim of mine, one I first learned about 50 years ago, namely \"the three phases of a bull market\":</p><p>The first stage, when some forward-thinking people start betting that a bull market may come;</p><p>Phase 2, when most investors realize that a bull market is happening;</p><p>Phase 3, when everyone thinks the bull market will last forever.</p><p>Interestingly, although under the leadership of the Federal Reserve, the stock market quickly changed from a weak bottom in March 2020 to a prosperous scene in May, half-belief was the most common investor psychology I saw during this period. The question they asked me the most is:</p><p>With such a bad environment, the pandemic is raging and the economy is stagnant, can the stock market still rise? It was hard to find optimists back then. A lot of investors became what my late father-in-law described as \"handcuffed people\": they didn't buy stocks because they wanted to, but they had to because cash returns were low. Once the stock market starts to rise, they will chase higher prices for fear of being left behind.</p><p>Therefore, it seems that the stock market rally stems from the Federal Reserve's manipulation of capital markets, rather than from good results from companies or investor optimism. It wasn't until the end of 2020, after the S&P 500 index rose 67.9% from the bottom in March and rose 16.3% for the year, that investors' psychological state finally caught up with the soaring stock price.</p><p>Bull markets rarely go through the first stage, and the probability of going through the second stage is also very low. Many investors directly changed from deep despair at the end of March of that year to extreme optimism later.</p><p>This is a good reminder for the present moment. Although the main melody melody of some historical events does repeat itself, it is a big mistake to expect history to repeat itself accurately.</p><p><b>03. Reasons for optimism, super stocks and new things</b></p><p>In a frenetic bull market, investors can become hysterical. In extreme cases, their thoughts and actions are divorced from reality. The premise here is that there must be elements that can both stimulate investors' imagination and prevent them from thinking carefully.</p><p>Therefore, it is worth noting that there are always some elements that will appear in a bull market: new developments, new inventions, and reasons to drive stocks up.</p><p>By definition, a bull market is characterized by upward prosperity, multiplication of confidence, credulity, and investors' willingness to pay high prices for assets, all of which have proved to be beyond the limit after the fact. Historical experience shows that it is crucial to keep these characteristics within reasonable limits. For this reason, the rational or emotional reasons that can stimulate the emergence of bull markets come from new things and cannot be explained by historical experience.</p><p>History has fully proven that when the market behaves bullish, stock valuations are pushed up, and investors begin to accept new things without hesitation, the consequences are often very painful.</p><p>Everyone knows (or should know) that the stock market usually falls 20%-50% after a parabolic rise. However, as I learned about \"the willing suspension of disbelief\" in high school English class, the above behavior continues to happen and repeatedly among investors.</p><p>Here's another of my favorite quotes:</p><p>The feeling of ecstasy was, and is, little known. People's memory of financial markets is very short, which leads to the financial crisis being soon forgotten. And when the same or very similar situation happens again, even within a few years, in the eyes of a young and extremely confident new generation, the crisis will be hailed as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">The financial world</a>And major discoveries in the economic fields. Among the industries that human beings dabble in, few industries have such meaningless historical experience as the financial industry. To some extent, historical experience has become a complete part of memories, and for those who can't afford to enjoy the present scene, it has become their original refuge-John Kenneth Galbraith, A Brief History of Financial Rapture, 1990 In the past 30 years, I have shared this sentence with readers many times, because I think it sums up some important points well, but I haven't shared my understanding of it before for the behavior described in it.</p><p>I don't think investors are forgetful. Instead, knowledge of history and proper caution lie on one side of the scale, and the dream of pursuing wealth lies on the other, and the latter always wins. Recollection, caution, realism, and risk aversion will only hinder the dream of getting rich. So for this reason, investors always lack moderate worry when the bull market starts.</p><p>Instead, it is often to find reasons for exceeding historical valuation standards. On October 11, 1987, Anise Wallace<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>This phenomenon is described in an article titled \"Why this market cycle is not different\" published in \". At that time, people held optimistic and positive sentiments, looking for rationality for unusually high stock prices, but Wallace pointed out in the article that this idea was untenable:</p><p>John Templeton, a 74-year-old mutual fund manager, once pointed out that the four most dangerous words in investing are \"this time is different\". When the stock market is ups and downs, investors always use this reason to rationalize their emotion-driven decisions. Over the next year, many investors will likely repeat these four words to defend high stock prices. But they should look at the stock market rise with the attitude of \"I'll pay you back when you have money\" (the check's in the mail makes excuses to delay). No matter what brokers or fund managers say, the bull market won't last forever. As a result, it didn't take a year, and just eight days later, the world suffered a \"Black Monday\", and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6% in a single day.</p><p>Another explanation for the bull market is that investors believe that certain enterprises will have a bright future. This applies to the \"Nifty 50\" growth stocks of the late 1960s; Semiconductor manufacturers in the 80s; And telecom, internet, and e-commerce companies in the late 90s. It is believed that every development is capable of changing the world and, therefore, past business realities do not limit investors' imagination and willingness to invest. They did change the world. Still, the high valuations that were once considered reasonably high did not last.</p><p>In many bull markets, one or more groups I call \"super stocks\", and their rapid rise has made investors increasingly optimistic. Growing optimism has pushed stock prices to highs, which has become a feature of previous market cycles. This positivity and higher valuations are further reflected in the valuations of other securities (or all securities) through relative value comparisons and general improvements in investor sentiment.</p><p>Looking back at the first two years, from 2020 to 2021, FAAMG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google) topped the list of companies that excite investors, with unprecedented market dominance and scale capabilities. The stunning performance of FAAMG in 2020 has attracted investors' attention and supported the general bullish trend.</p><p>By September 2020 (within six months), these stocks had almost doubled from their March lows and were up 61% from the start of the year. It's worth mentioning that these five stocks are heavily weighted in the S&P 500, so their performance led to a good overall rally in the index, but it distracted people from the other 495 underperforming stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb43ec1382ac15f7a9090cf792e1236\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The massive success of FAAMG has created a general positive impact for tech stocks, which have seen a surge in investor demand and, as is the case in the investment space, strong demand has stimulated and increased supply. One barometer worth noting in this context is the approach of unprofitable companies to IPOs.</p><p>Before the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s, IPOs of unprofitable companies were relatively few, surging during the bubble, but the number has since declined again. In the bull market of 2020-2021, unprofitable initial public offerings (IPOs) experienced a big rebound as investors were willing to support the desire of technology companies to scale and the need for biotech companies to spend on drug trials.</p><p>If companies with bright prospects provide momentum for a bull market, emerging things in the market may play a role in fueling the flames, exacerbating its rally. SPAC (backdoor listing) is a typical recent example. Investors provided blank checks for these newly formed companies to carry out acquisition activities and get their funds back with interest after meeting the following two conditions \"if the acquisition is not completed within two years, or if the investor disagrees with the proposed acquisition.\"</p><p>This seems to be a \"steady profit\" (the most dangerous word in the world) buy and sell, with the number of SPACs soaring from 10 in 2013 and 59 in 2019 to 248 in 2020 and 613 in 2021. Some companies make huge profits, while in others investors get their money back with interest and principal. But the lack of suspicion of untested innovation, coupled with the push of bull market psychology, has allowed too many SPACs to be created, whether by competent or incompetent sponsors, who will be paid heavily for completing acquisitions...... any acquisition.</p><p>Today, SPACs that have completed acquisitions and exited since 2020 have an average selling price of $5.25, compared to the offering price of $10.00. This is a good example of how new things are not as reliable as investors think-investors are once again paying the price for \"something that must not happen\".</p><p>Supporters of SPACs believe that these entities are just another way for companies to go public and are not worried about its potential role. I focus on how investors embrace an untested innovation during hot times.</p><p>Another dynamic on the innovation factor is also worth mentioning, which shows how \"new things\" contribute to the bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Robinhood Markets began offering stocks in the years before the pandemic,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>And commission-free trading of cryptocurrencies, etc. After the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, this encouraged people to flock to the stock market and start speculating in stocks, because casinos and sports events stopped gambling business.</p><p></li><li>Millions of people who didn't lose their jobs received generous financial subsidies, which meant many had increased disposable income during the pandemic. Social networking sites like Reddit have turned investment into a \"social activity in isolation at home\".</p><p></li><li>As a result, a large number of novice retail investors flock to the stock market, many of whom lack basic investment experience.</p><p></li><li>Newbies will be thrilled to admire a public figure and claim that \"the stock market only goes up\".</p><p></li><li>As a result, the prices of many technology stocks and \"meme stocks\" (group retail stocks) have soared.</p><p></li></ul>The last emerging thing worth discussing is cryptocurrencies. For example, supporters of Bitcoin cite its multiple uses and its limited supply relative to potential demand. Skeptics, on the other hand, point out that Bitcoin lacks cash flow and intrinsic value to determine a fair price. Whichever side is correct, a Bitcoin satisfies some of the characteristics that benefit from a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Bitcoin is relatively new (although it has been around for 14 years, people have only paid attention to it in the last five years).</p><p></li><li>Bitcoin prices surged dramatically, rising from $5,000 in 2020 to a peak of $68,000 in 2021.</p><p></li><li>According to Galbrait, this is certainly something that previous generations \"couldn't appreciate\".</p><p></li><li>In all these respects, this fits perfectly with Galbrait's description of something \"enthusiastically embraced by a new, young and very confident generation as a great innovation in the field of finance\".</p><p></li><li>Now, Bitcoin is down more than half from its 2021 highs, but thousands of other cryptocurrencies that already exist have fallen even more.</p><p></li></ul>The spectacular performance of FAAMGs, tech stocks, SPACs, group stocks, and cryptocurrencies in 2020 has made this fascination even more frenetic and added to the general optimism among investors. It's hard to imagine a full-blown bull market in the absence of something never before seen or heard of. The belief of \"something new new\" and \"this time is different\" is typical of the recurring bull market theme.</p><p><b>04. Competition to the bottom</b></p><p>Another bull theme in different cycles is the deleterious impact of bull trends on the quality of investor decisions. In short, when calm reason is replaced by burning optimism:</p><p><ul><li>Asset price increases</p><p></li><li>Greed overshadows fear</p><p></li><li>No longer worry about losses, instead of worrying about stepping short</p><p></li><li>Risk aversion and caution fade away</p><p></li></ul>It must be remembered that it is risk aversion and fear of loss that keeps markets safe and sane. These developments usually boost the market, making caution and rational thinking disappear, and making it a dangerous place.</p><p>I explained in my 2007 memo, Race to the Bottom, that when investors and capital providers have too much money in their hands and they are too eager to put it to use, they are too aggressive in bidding for securities and lending opportunities. Fierce bidding depresses expected returns, increases risk, weakens security structures, and reduces fault tolerance rates.</p><p><ul><li>Cautious investors stick to their guns, saying, \"I insist on 8% interest and a strong contract.\"</p><p></li><li>Its rivals responded: \"I accept 7% interest and ask for fewer covenants.\"</p><p></li><li>The most unruly person didn't want to miss this opportunity and said, \"I can accept 6% interest and don't need a covenant.\"</p><p></li></ul>This is the \"race to the bottom\", which is exactly what people often say \"the worst loans come from the best times\". This is something that can't happen when people are distressed by recent losses and fear experiencing more losses. After the Federal Reserve took large-scale measures to deal with the global financial crisis, it ushered in a record economic recovery and stock market rise for more than 10 years, but it was accompanied by:</p><p><ul><li>IPO wave of loss-making companies</p><p></li><li>Record issuance of subordinated securities (high-risk CCC-rated bonds)</p><p></li><li>Companies in high-volatility sectors (technology and software) are issuing heavily, and people tend to avoid these sectors in times of caution</p><p></li><li>Rising Valuation Multiples for M&A and Acquisitions</p><p></li><li>Risk premium continues to fall</p><p></li></ul>Favorable developments also encourage greater use of leverage. Leverage amplifies gains and losses, but in a bull market, investors are convinced that gains are inevitable and ignore the possibility of losses. In this case, few people can find a reason not to borrow, because the interest cost of debt is minimal and can increase the return of success.</p><p>But increasing debt at a high price late in the upward cycle is not the best way to succeed. When things get bad, leverage becomes unfavorable. Investment banks get into trouble when they issue debt at the end of their investment. Debt \"hanging\" on a bank's balance sheet tends to become a \"canary in a coal mine,\" suggesting impending danger.</p><p>Since I believe in the enduring investment motto, it is quite appropriate at this point to quote the motto I think the greatest investor behavior: \"Where the wise begin, the fool ends\". People who buy stocks during the first phase of a bull market, with lower prices due to the prevailing pessimism (such as during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and early COVID-19 pandemic in 2020), have the potential to earn strong returns with minimal risk, with the main prerequisites being money and guts.</p><p>But when the bull market heats up and considerable returns encourage investor optimism, the traits of returning at this time are eagerness, credulity and risk-taking. In the third phase of the bull market, new entrants bought heavily and the stock market remained high. Caution, selectivity and discipline disappear when they are most needed.</p><p>It is particularly noteworthy that investors who are optimistic and are rewarded by their risk tolerance often no longer discern investment opportunities. Not only did investors think that something \"new\" would certainly succeed, but ultimately they concluded that the space had a bright future, so there was no need to draw any further distinctions.</p><p>For the above reasons, \"bull market psychology\" is not a commendatory term. It implies unalerted behavior and a tolerance for high risks, and investors should be worried, not encouraged. As Buffett said, \"The less cautious others are in handling their own affairs, the more cautious we must be in handling our own affairs.\" Investors must know when bull market psychology is dominating and exercise the necessary caution.</p><p><b>05. Pendulum effect</b></p><p>Bull markets don't appear out of nowhere. The winners in every bull market become winners for the simple reason that there are some facts behind their profits. However, the bull market I talked about above tends to inflate the value of stocks and push the stock price to levels that are too high and therefore vulnerable. And, the upward fluctuation doesn't last forever.</p><p>I once wrote in OntheCouch (January 2016): \"In the real world, things usually oscillate back and forth between'pretty good 'and'not too hot.' But in the investment world, people's expectations often change from'hopeful 'to'desperate'\". In the market, overdoing things is one of the key characteristics of investor behavior. During a bull market, investors believe that difficult, unlikely and unprecedented things will definitely work.</p><p>However, in the less prosperous period, good economic news and \"performance exceeding expectations\" failed to stimulate buying, and the rise in stock prices no longer made investors with low positions feel regret. Therefore, we see that people are no longer willing to abandon questioning for the time being, and their mentality quickly turns negative.</p><p>Investors can interpret almost any piece of news, whether it is positive or negative depends on the way it is reported and their mood, which is the key. (The cartoon below, one of my all-time favorites, was published decades ago. Look at the depth of those antennas and TV cabinets, but it's obvious that the captions are relevant to the subject of this moment.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b3a74156c69f713bc1092a9a6544f22\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>\"On Wall Street today, the news of interest rate cuts pushed the stock market higher, but then lower interest rates led to inflation expectations that pushed the stock market lower, and then people realized that interest rate cuts could stimulate a depressed economy, and this expectation pushed the stock market higher. After that, the stock market eventually fell amid the fear that the overheating economy would lead to another rate hike.\"</p><p>Turning this popular saying upside down reflects the process of \"from full of hope to despair\" I mentioned earlier. While there is some truth in supporting the idea that a bull market will happen, when it goes well, investors regard it as a certain deal. However, when some flaws in this view are exposed, people think that it is completely wrong.</p><p>On the happy days (a year ago), tech bulls said, \"You have to buy growth stocks because their earnings are likely to grow in the next few decades.\" But now, after a plunge, we hear instead: \"Investing based on future potential is too risky. You have to hold value stocks because you can determine their present value and price them reasonably.\"</p><p>Similarly, in good times, investors who participated in IPOs of loss-making companies said: \"There's nothing wrong with companies reporting losses, and it's reasonable for them to spend money to scale.\" But the story is different now, with many saying: \"Who invests in unprofitable companies? They just burn money.\"</p><p>Someone who doesn't spend much time watching the market may think that asset prices depend entirely on fundamentals, but that's not the case. Asset prices depend on fundamentals and how people view those fundamentals. As a result, changes in asset prices depend on changes in fundamentals and/or how people perceive changes in those fundamentals.</p><p>Company fundamentals are theoretically subject to so-called \"analysis,\" and possibly even forecasting. Perceptions of fundamentals, on the other hand, are subjective, unaffected by analysis or forecasts, and change more rapidly and drastically.</p><p>Some common sayings also reflect this view:</p><p><ul><li>Balloons deflate much faster than they inflate.</p><p></li><li>Things happen later than you think, but they happen much faster than you think.</p><p></li></ul>As for the latter, in my experience, we often see positive or negative fundamentals happen simultaneously for a period of time without the stock price reacting. But then a tipping point is reached-both fundamentally and psychologically-where all of a sudden is reflected in price, sometimes overreflected.</p><p><b>06. What happens then?</b></p><p>A bull market doesn't treat all industries equally. As I discussed earlier, in a bull market, optimism is most strongly focused on a certain class of stocks, such as \"new things\" or \"super stocks.\" Such stocks rose the most, becoming a symbol of the bull market during this period and attracting further buying. The media is paying the most attention to such stocks, prolonging the whole process. During 2020-2021, FAAMG and other tech stocks are prime examples of this phenomenon.</p><p>The truth is self-evident, but I still want to say that investors who hold a large number of stocks that lead the bull market are doing well. Some money managers are smart enough or lucky enough to focus on these stocks so they achieve the highest returns, optimism prevails, and at the same time, they appear on the front pages of newspapers and cable TV shows. In the past, I have said that our industry is full of people who have a reputation for making the right decisions in a row. And for fund managers who are smart enough or lucky enough to add to the sectors leading the bull market, the famous can double.</p><p>However, stocks that have made the biggest gains in rising years tend to have the biggest losses in falling years. The aphorisms that apply here come from the real world, but that doesn't make them any less relevant: \"Success is Xiao He, and failure is Xiao He\", \"There are ups and downs\" and \"The higher you climb, the harder you fall\":</p><p>The first tech fund grew 157% in 2020, going from obscurity to fame. But it's down 23% in 2021 and another 57% so far in 2022. The $100 invested at the end of 2019 was worth $257 a year later, but today it has fallen to $85. Another less volatile tech fund rose 48% in 2020 but has since fallen 48%. Unfortunately, the 48% upside and the 48% downside do not cancel each other out, in effect, there is a net decline of $22 for every $100 invested. The third tech fund rose a staggering 291% in the first year, but fell 21%, 60% and 61% in the following three years. During those four years, the $100 invested at the beginning was worth just $43 at the end, equating to an 89% drop from an incredible high at the end of the first year. Wait a minute, the current boom/bust period hasn't lasted four years yet. No, I'm quoting results from 1999-2002, when the last tech bubble also burst. I only mention them to remind you that the current performance is a reproduction of the situation. Earlier I mentioned Robinhood, the originator of commission-free trading. It epitomizes digital currency stocks during the 2020-2021 bull market. Robinhood went public at $38/share in July 2021, and the stock price surged to $85 a week later. Shares are today at just $10, down 88% from their highs in less than a year.</p><p>But the average performance of stocks is not really that bad, is it? The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down \"only\" 27.4% in 2022. One feature of this \"bull market\" is that the largest constituents perform best, thus boosting the index. Thinking about what this means for the rest of the constituent stocks, 22% of the Nasdaq's stocks are down at least 50%. (The data here and below are as of May 20)</p><p>Here are some of my random picks of the declines of well-known tech, digital currency, and innovative stocks. Maybe, when some of the stocks here are at their peak, you feel blamed for not getting them:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffeced6fe46e2035410c8d0d198ea4da\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"956\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hypothetically, you still believe that the stock price is determined by a consensus reached by smart investors based on fundamentals. If so, then why are all these stocks falling so hard? Do you really believe that the value of these businesses has evaporated by more than half on average over the past few months? This question raises some other questions that I often think about.</p><p>Bitcoin often moves in the same direction at a time of wild stock market volatility. Is there some fundamental reason behind this that leads to the correlation between the two trends? The same goes for market linkages between countries: when Japanese stocks start off sharply, European and American stocks tend to follow suit. Sometimes, it seems like the US stock market is leading the way while the Japanese stock market is slipping at the same time. Is the connection between the fundamentals of these countries sufficient to cause them to link?</p><p>My answer to all of these questions is usually \"no\". The common denominator is not fundamentals, but psychological factors, and all of these things are similarly affected when the latter changes significantly.</p><p><b>07. Experience</b></p><p>As for investing students, the most important thing is not what happens in a specific time period, but what we can learn from these events. We can learn a lot from the 2020-2021 trends that are consistent with those seen in previous cycles. In a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Optimism is built on things that are done very well.</p><p></li><li>The impact is strongest when the stock price rises from a base that is rather depressed in both psychological and price terms.</p><p></li><li>There is no worry in bull market psychology, and it has a high level of risk tolerance, so it is accompanied by extremely aggressive behavior. Taking risks is rewarded, but the need for hard work is ignored.</p><p></li><li>High returns make people more confident that new things, small probability events, and optimistic outcomes will happen. When people are convinced of the value of these things, they tend to come to the conclusion that there are no stocks that are too expensive.</p><p></li><li>After they (and prices) reach unsustainable levels, these effects eventually cool down.</p><p></li><li>Markets at high levels are vulnerable to external events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p></li><li>The assets that gained the most, and the investors who increased their holdings, often experienced painful reversals.</p><p></li></ul>I have seen this happen many times in my career, and none of them are entirely caused by fundamentals. On the contrary, psychological factors are the main reason, and the way psychology works is unlikely to change. This is why I firmly believe that as long as humans are involved in the investment process, we will see them happen again and again.</p><p>And, note that the wild movements in the market are basically driven by psychological factors, and it is obvious that if possible, market movements can only be predicted when prices are extremely high or extremely low.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Howard Marks' latest memo: The rhythm of a bull market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHoward Marks' latest memo: The rhythm of a bull market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-27 20:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Over the past hundred years, the stock market has experienced ups and downs, and has never stopped. Countless cycles have passed through the historical sky like bright meteors.</p><p>Why are there cycles, and why do investors invest countless energy into the ongoing struggle against market volatility? Because their investment psychology is always affecting the direction of the market. As long as humans are involved in investing, we will see them happen again and again.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Co-founder Howard Marks<b>In this latest memo titled \"Bull Market Rhymes\", it analyzes the patterns of bull market cycles, and points out that investors' behavior can judge the current stage and leave the market early before the stock market crashes.</b></p><p>Out of the pursuit of wealth dreams, investors will lack appropriate fear in the bull market frenzy, and the emergence of this frenzy heralds the approaching risk.</p><p>Max said,<b>Investors must know when bull market psychology is dominating and exercise the necessary caution. \"Bull mentality\" is not a commendatory term, it means unwary behavior and tolerance for high risks. Investors should be worried, not encouraged</b>：</p><p>It is risk aversion and fear of loss that keeps markets safe and sane. Marks noted<b>, asset prices depend on fundamentals and how people view those fundamentals</b>。 High returns in a bull market make people more confident that new things, small probability events, and optimistic outcomes will happen. When people are convinced of the value of these things, they tend to come to the conclusion that there are no stocks that are too expensive. At this time, new entrants bought heavily, and the stock market remained high. Caution, selectivity and discipline disappear when they are most needed.</p><p>Max also cited the current stock market as an example:</p><p>On Wall Street today, the news of interest rate cuts pushed the stock market higher, but then the expectation of inflation caused by lower interest rates pushed the stock market lower. Then, people realized that interest rate cuts could stimulate the depressed economy, and this expectation pushed the stock market higher. After that, the stock market eventually fell amid the fear that the overheating economy would lead to another rate hike. Marks bluntly said that he believes in the enduring investment motto, so<b>The greatest investor behavior should be \"where the wise begins and where the fool ends\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1237ed2d4679f28b36508f982605e52f\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The following is the full text of the memorandum:</p><p>Although I use a lot of aphorisms and quotations in my memo, only a few make it to my top list, and one of my favorites is Mark Twain's famous quote:</p><p>History doesn't repeat itself, but it does repeat itself in similar rhymes. It is well documented that Mark Twain said the first four words in 1874, but there is no accurate evidence that he said the latter words.</p><p>There have been a lot of people who have said similar things over the years. In 1965, psychoanalyst Theodor Reik expressed the same view in his article entitled \"Unreachable\". He added a few more words himself, and I think his expression is the best:</p><p>The cycle is repeated, with ups and downs, but the process is basically the same, with little change. Some say that history repeats itself, but that may not be quite accurate, history simply repeats itself in similar rhymes. The past investment events will not repeat themselves, but the main theme of the events does reappear, especially those related to investment behavior, which is exactly what I am studying.</p><p>In the past two years, the cycle written by Reik has experienced ups and downs, which has attracted market attention. What strikes me in particular is the reappearance of the typical style in investment behavior, which will be the theme of this memo.</p><p>Let me state in advance that this memo does not predict the potential direction of the market. As an example, the market's bullish behavior began when it hit the bottom in March 2020, but since then, there have been serious problems both inside the economy (inflation) and outside the economy (Russia-Ukraine conflict), and there have been major corrections. No one, including me, can know how these things together will affect the future.</p><p>My purpose in writing this memo is simply to place recent events in the context of history and discover some implicit lessons from them. This is crucial because we must go back 22 years, back to the bursting of the tech-media-telecom bubble in 2000, to see the beginning of the real bull market and the end of the resulting bear market. Many readers have not experienced the events at that time because they started investing late.</p><p>You may ask \"How were market earnings before the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the pandemic of 2020 caused the market to collapse?\"</p><p>In my opinion, prior to these two crises, the market was rising gradually, not along a parabola. The rise wasn't driven by frenzy, the stock price wasn't pushed to insane heights, and the high stock price wasn't the cause of any of the crises. The 2008-2009 crisis stemmed from the emergence of the real estate market and subprime mortgage securitization, and the 2020 collapse was due to the epidemic in COVID-19 pandemic and the government's shutdown of the economy to control the epidemic.</p><p>For the aforementioned \"real bull market\", my definition of it does not come from the investment encyclopedia website (Investopedia):</p><p><ul><li>The price of an asset or security in a financial market continues to rise for a period of time.</p><p></li><li>The market usually sees a 20% rise after a 20% decline in the stock price.</p><p></li></ul>The first definition is too bland and fails to capture the core sentiment of investors in a bull market. The second definition provides a false precision. A bull market should not be defined by a percentage change in price. For me, it is best described in terms of how it makes people feel, the investor psychology behind it, and the investment behavior caused by it.</p><p>(I started investing before the numerical criteria for bull and bear markets were set, and I think such criteria are meaningless. Does it really matter whether the S&P 500 index is down 19.9% or 20.1%? I still prefer the old-school definition of a bear market-nerve-racking).</p><p><b>01. Excess and correction</b></p><p>My second book is The Cycle Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side. As we all know, I am a student of cycles and a believer in cycles. As an investor over the years, I have gone through several important cycles (and also received education).</p><p>I believe that knowing where you are in the market cycle can tell us what will happen next. But when I finished writing this book two-thirds of the way, I suddenly thought of a question that I had never considered before: Why are there cycles?</p><p>For example, since the S&P 500 was born in 1957, the average annual return rate in these 65 years is slightly higher than 10%. Why can't its return rate be 10% every year? Here, to add to the question I raised in my memo \"The Golden Mean\" in July 2004, why did the S&P 500 index only return between 8% and 12% six times during this period, and why did it perform so far from this 90% of the time?</p><p>After thinking about it for a period of time, I think it can be explained that there is \"excess and correction\" in the market.</p><p>If you compare the stock market to a machine, you want it to function consistently and steadily over time, the idea is reasonable. However, I think the significant influence of investors' psychological state on their decision-making can largely explain the reasons for market volatility.</p><p>When investors start aggressively bullish, they tend to draw the following conclusions.</p><p>First, everything will always go up; Secondly, no matter how much they pay for an asset, others will buy it from them at a higher price (i.e. the \"bigger fool\" theory) because they are highly optimistic about the market:</p><p><ul><li>The stock price will rise faster than the company's profit growth, and the increase will be much higher than the fair value (excess increase).</p><p></li><li>After that, the investment environment began to disappoint, and the stupid move of paying high prices became conspicuous. The stock price would fall to fair value (revision), and then fall further below that price level.</p><p></li><li>A decline in the stock price will further trigger market pessimism, which will cause the stock price to fall far below its own value (excessive decline).</p><p></li><li>Finally, buying at the bottom will help the sluggish stock price rebound to its fair value (revision).</p><p></li></ul>Excessive gains can lead to higher-than-average returns for a period of time, while excessive declines can also lead to lower-than-average returns for a period of time. Of course, there may be other factors at play, but I think, \"excesses and corrections\" can explain most of the situation. During 2020-2021, we saw the stock market go somewhat excessively, and now we see them being corrected.</p><p><b>02. Bull market psychology</b></p><p>In a bull market, a favorable environment will lead the stock price to rise and boost investor confidence, and this investment confidence will induce aggressive operations, which will further trigger the stock price to rise, and then there will be a more optimistic investment mentality and continuous risk-taking operations.</p><p>This rising spiral is the essence of a bull market, and its rising process may seem overwhelming.</p><p>In the early days of the pandemic, we witnessed a typical asset price crash. The S&P 500 index first hit a record high of 3,386 points on February 19, 2020, then fell by one-third in just 34 days, and fell to 2,237 points on March 23. But then, with the joint efforts of various forces, the stock price rose sharply again:</p><p><ul><li>Among them, the Federal Reserve lowered its Federal Funds rate to near zero and announced large-scale economic stimulus measures together with the Ministry of Finance.</p><p></li><li>These actions have convinced investors that state institutions will do whatever it takes to stabilize the economy.</p><p></li><li>Interest rate cuts significantly reduce the expected return on investment and affect its relative attractiveness.</p><p></li><li>These factors combine to force investors to start taking risks that arise in the short term.</p><p></li><li>Then asset prices rose: by the end of August of that year, the S&P 500 had recovered all its lost ground and rose beyond its February high.</p><p></li><li>FAAMG (Facebook<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>), software stocks and other tech stocks rose sharply, driving the market higher.</p><p></li><li>In the end, investors came to the conclusion that they could expect the stock market to continue to rise, which was also in line with their usual mentality in the bull market.</p><p></li></ul>Just like the last point above, the most important thing in bull market psychology is that most people think that the rise in stock prices is a positive signal that indicates the future market, and many people begin to become optimistic. Only a few people will suspect that this kind of market is excessively rising, and its income depends on future expectations, so the rise will not last, and the market will reverse.</p><p>This reminds me of another favorite maxim of mine, one I first learned about 50 years ago, namely \"the three phases of a bull market\":</p><p>The first stage, when some forward-thinking people start betting that a bull market may come;</p><p>Phase 2, when most investors realize that a bull market is happening;</p><p>Phase 3, when everyone thinks the bull market will last forever.</p><p>Interestingly, although under the leadership of the Federal Reserve, the stock market quickly changed from a weak bottom in March 2020 to a prosperous scene in May, half-belief was the most common investor psychology I saw during this period. The question they asked me the most is:</p><p>With such a bad environment, the pandemic is raging and the economy is stagnant, can the stock market still rise? It was hard to find optimists back then. A lot of investors became what my late father-in-law described as \"handcuffed people\": they didn't buy stocks because they wanted to, but they had to because cash returns were low. Once the stock market starts to rise, they will chase higher prices for fear of being left behind.</p><p>Therefore, it seems that the stock market rally stems from the Federal Reserve's manipulation of capital markets, rather than from good results from companies or investor optimism. It wasn't until the end of 2020, after the S&P 500 index rose 67.9% from the bottom in March and rose 16.3% for the year, that investors' psychological state finally caught up with the soaring stock price.</p><p>Bull markets rarely go through the first stage, and the probability of going through the second stage is also very low. Many investors directly changed from deep despair at the end of March of that year to extreme optimism later.</p><p>This is a good reminder for the present moment. Although the main melody melody of some historical events does repeat itself, it is a big mistake to expect history to repeat itself accurately.</p><p><b>03. Reasons for optimism, super stocks and new things</b></p><p>In a frenetic bull market, investors can become hysterical. In extreme cases, their thoughts and actions are divorced from reality. The premise here is that there must be elements that can both stimulate investors' imagination and prevent them from thinking carefully.</p><p>Therefore, it is worth noting that there are always some elements that will appear in a bull market: new developments, new inventions, and reasons to drive stocks up.</p><p>By definition, a bull market is characterized by upward prosperity, multiplication of confidence, credulity, and investors' willingness to pay high prices for assets, all of which have proved to be beyond the limit after the fact. Historical experience shows that it is crucial to keep these characteristics within reasonable limits. For this reason, the rational or emotional reasons that can stimulate the emergence of bull markets come from new things and cannot be explained by historical experience.</p><p>History has fully proven that when the market behaves bullish, stock valuations are pushed up, and investors begin to accept new things without hesitation, the consequences are often very painful.</p><p>Everyone knows (or should know) that the stock market usually falls 20%-50% after a parabolic rise. However, as I learned about \"the willing suspension of disbelief\" in high school English class, the above behavior continues to happen and repeatedly among investors.</p><p>Here's another of my favorite quotes:</p><p>The feeling of ecstasy was, and is, little known. People's memory of financial markets is very short, which leads to the financial crisis being soon forgotten. And when the same or very similar situation happens again, even within a few years, in the eyes of a young and extremely confident new generation, the crisis will be hailed as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">The financial world</a>And major discoveries in the economic fields. Among the industries that human beings dabble in, few industries have such meaningless historical experience as the financial industry. To some extent, historical experience has become a complete part of memories, and for those who can't afford to enjoy the present scene, it has become their original refuge-John Kenneth Galbraith, A Brief History of Financial Rapture, 1990 In the past 30 years, I have shared this sentence with readers many times, because I think it sums up some important points well, but I haven't shared my understanding of it before for the behavior described in it.</p><p>I don't think investors are forgetful. Instead, knowledge of history and proper caution lie on one side of the scale, and the dream of pursuing wealth lies on the other, and the latter always wins. Recollection, caution, realism, and risk aversion will only hinder the dream of getting rich. So for this reason, investors always lack moderate worry when the bull market starts.</p><p>Instead, it is often to find reasons for exceeding historical valuation standards. On October 11, 1987, Anise Wallace<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>This phenomenon is described in an article titled \"Why this market cycle is not different\" published in \". At that time, people held optimistic and positive sentiments, looking for rationality for unusually high stock prices, but Wallace pointed out in the article that this idea was untenable:</p><p>John Templeton, a 74-year-old mutual fund manager, once pointed out that the four most dangerous words in investing are \"this time is different\". When the stock market is ups and downs, investors always use this reason to rationalize their emotion-driven decisions. Over the next year, many investors will likely repeat these four words to defend high stock prices. But they should look at the stock market rise with the attitude of \"I'll pay you back when you have money\" (the check's in the mail makes excuses to delay). No matter what brokers or fund managers say, the bull market won't last forever. As a result, it didn't take a year, and just eight days later, the world suffered a \"Black Monday\", and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6% in a single day.</p><p>Another explanation for the bull market is that investors believe that certain enterprises will have a bright future. This applies to the \"Nifty 50\" growth stocks of the late 1960s; Semiconductor manufacturers in the 80s; And telecom, internet, and e-commerce companies in the late 90s. It is believed that every development is capable of changing the world and, therefore, past business realities do not limit investors' imagination and willingness to invest. They did change the world. Still, the high valuations that were once considered reasonably high did not last.</p><p>In many bull markets, one or more groups I call \"super stocks\", and their rapid rise has made investors increasingly optimistic. Growing optimism has pushed stock prices to highs, which has become a feature of previous market cycles. This positivity and higher valuations are further reflected in the valuations of other securities (or all securities) through relative value comparisons and general improvements in investor sentiment.</p><p>Looking back at the first two years, from 2020 to 2021, FAAMG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google) topped the list of companies that excite investors, with unprecedented market dominance and scale capabilities. The stunning performance of FAAMG in 2020 has attracted investors' attention and supported the general bullish trend.</p><p>By September 2020 (within six months), these stocks had almost doubled from their March lows and were up 61% from the start of the year. It's worth mentioning that these five stocks are heavily weighted in the S&P 500, so their performance led to a good overall rally in the index, but it distracted people from the other 495 underperforming stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb43ec1382ac15f7a9090cf792e1236\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The massive success of FAAMG has created a general positive impact for tech stocks, which have seen a surge in investor demand and, as is the case in the investment space, strong demand has stimulated and increased supply. One barometer worth noting in this context is the approach of unprofitable companies to IPOs.</p><p>Before the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s, IPOs of unprofitable companies were relatively few, surging during the bubble, but the number has since declined again. In the bull market of 2020-2021, unprofitable initial public offerings (IPOs) experienced a big rebound as investors were willing to support the desire of technology companies to scale and the need for biotech companies to spend on drug trials.</p><p>If companies with bright prospects provide momentum for a bull market, emerging things in the market may play a role in fueling the flames, exacerbating its rally. SPAC (backdoor listing) is a typical recent example. Investors provided blank checks for these newly formed companies to carry out acquisition activities and get their funds back with interest after meeting the following two conditions \"if the acquisition is not completed within two years, or if the investor disagrees with the proposed acquisition.\"</p><p>This seems to be a \"steady profit\" (the most dangerous word in the world) buy and sell, with the number of SPACs soaring from 10 in 2013 and 59 in 2019 to 248 in 2020 and 613 in 2021. Some companies make huge profits, while in others investors get their money back with interest and principal. But the lack of suspicion of untested innovation, coupled with the push of bull market psychology, has allowed too many SPACs to be created, whether by competent or incompetent sponsors, who will be paid heavily for completing acquisitions...... any acquisition.</p><p>Today, SPACs that have completed acquisitions and exited since 2020 have an average selling price of $5.25, compared to the offering price of $10.00. This is a good example of how new things are not as reliable as investors think-investors are once again paying the price for \"something that must not happen\".</p><p>Supporters of SPACs believe that these entities are just another way for companies to go public and are not worried about its potential role. I focus on how investors embrace an untested innovation during hot times.</p><p>Another dynamic on the innovation factor is also worth mentioning, which shows how \"new things\" contribute to the bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Robinhood Markets began offering stocks in the years before the pandemic,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>And commission-free trading of cryptocurrencies, etc. After the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, this encouraged people to flock to the stock market and start speculating in stocks, because casinos and sports events stopped gambling business.</p><p></li><li>Millions of people who didn't lose their jobs received generous financial subsidies, which meant many had increased disposable income during the pandemic. Social networking sites like Reddit have turned investment into a \"social activity in isolation at home\".</p><p></li><li>As a result, a large number of novice retail investors flock to the stock market, many of whom lack basic investment experience.</p><p></li><li>Newbies will be thrilled to admire a public figure and claim that \"the stock market only goes up\".</p><p></li><li>As a result, the prices of many technology stocks and \"meme stocks\" (group retail stocks) have soared.</p><p></li></ul>The last emerging thing worth discussing is cryptocurrencies. For example, supporters of Bitcoin cite its multiple uses and its limited supply relative to potential demand. Skeptics, on the other hand, point out that Bitcoin lacks cash flow and intrinsic value to determine a fair price. Whichever side is correct, a Bitcoin satisfies some of the characteristics that benefit from a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Bitcoin is relatively new (although it has been around for 14 years, people have only paid attention to it in the last five years).</p><p></li><li>Bitcoin prices surged dramatically, rising from $5,000 in 2020 to a peak of $68,000 in 2021.</p><p></li><li>According to Galbrait, this is certainly something that previous generations \"couldn't appreciate\".</p><p></li><li>In all these respects, this fits perfectly with Galbrait's description of something \"enthusiastically embraced by a new, young and very confident generation as a great innovation in the field of finance\".</p><p></li><li>Now, Bitcoin is down more than half from its 2021 highs, but thousands of other cryptocurrencies that already exist have fallen even more.</p><p></li></ul>The spectacular performance of FAAMGs, tech stocks, SPACs, group stocks, and cryptocurrencies in 2020 has made this fascination even more frenetic and added to the general optimism among investors. It's hard to imagine a full-blown bull market in the absence of something never before seen or heard of. The belief of \"something new new\" and \"this time is different\" is typical of the recurring bull market theme.</p><p><b>04. Competition to the bottom</b></p><p>Another bull theme in different cycles is the deleterious impact of bull trends on the quality of investor decisions. In short, when calm reason is replaced by burning optimism:</p><p><ul><li>Asset price increases</p><p></li><li>Greed overshadows fear</p><p></li><li>No longer worry about losses, instead of worrying about stepping short</p><p></li><li>Risk aversion and caution fade away</p><p></li></ul>It must be remembered that it is risk aversion and fear of loss that keeps markets safe and sane. These developments usually boost the market, making caution and rational thinking disappear, and making it a dangerous place.</p><p>I explained in my 2007 memo, Race to the Bottom, that when investors and capital providers have too much money in their hands and they are too eager to put it to use, they are too aggressive in bidding for securities and lending opportunities. Fierce bidding depresses expected returns, increases risk, weakens security structures, and reduces fault tolerance rates.</p><p><ul><li>Cautious investors stick to their guns, saying, \"I insist on 8% interest and a strong contract.\"</p><p></li><li>Its rivals responded: \"I accept 7% interest and ask for fewer covenants.\"</p><p></li><li>The most unruly person didn't want to miss this opportunity and said, \"I can accept 6% interest and don't need a covenant.\"</p><p></li></ul>This is the \"race to the bottom\", which is exactly what people often say \"the worst loans come from the best times\". This is something that can't happen when people are distressed by recent losses and fear experiencing more losses. After the Federal Reserve took large-scale measures to deal with the global financial crisis, it ushered in a record economic recovery and stock market rise for more than 10 years, but it was accompanied by:</p><p><ul><li>IPO wave of loss-making companies</p><p></li><li>Record issuance of subordinated securities (high-risk CCC-rated bonds)</p><p></li><li>Companies in high-volatility sectors (technology and software) are issuing heavily, and people tend to avoid these sectors in times of caution</p><p></li><li>Rising Valuation Multiples for M&A and Acquisitions</p><p></li><li>Risk premium continues to fall</p><p></li></ul>Favorable developments also encourage greater use of leverage. Leverage amplifies gains and losses, but in a bull market, investors are convinced that gains are inevitable and ignore the possibility of losses. In this case, few people can find a reason not to borrow, because the interest cost of debt is minimal and can increase the return of success.</p><p>But increasing debt at a high price late in the upward cycle is not the best way to succeed. When things get bad, leverage becomes unfavorable. Investment banks get into trouble when they issue debt at the end of their investment. Debt \"hanging\" on a bank's balance sheet tends to become a \"canary in a coal mine,\" suggesting impending danger.</p><p>Since I believe in the enduring investment motto, it is quite appropriate at this point to quote the motto I think the greatest investor behavior: \"Where the wise begin, the fool ends\". People who buy stocks during the first phase of a bull market, with lower prices due to the prevailing pessimism (such as during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and early COVID-19 pandemic in 2020), have the potential to earn strong returns with minimal risk, with the main prerequisites being money and guts.</p><p>But when the bull market heats up and considerable returns encourage investor optimism, the traits of returning at this time are eagerness, credulity and risk-taking. In the third phase of the bull market, new entrants bought heavily and the stock market remained high. Caution, selectivity and discipline disappear when they are most needed.</p><p>It is particularly noteworthy that investors who are optimistic and are rewarded by their risk tolerance often no longer discern investment opportunities. Not only did investors think that something \"new\" would certainly succeed, but ultimately they concluded that the space had a bright future, so there was no need to draw any further distinctions.</p><p>For the above reasons, \"bull market psychology\" is not a commendatory term. It implies unalerted behavior and a tolerance for high risks, and investors should be worried, not encouraged. As Buffett said, \"The less cautious others are in handling their own affairs, the more cautious we must be in handling our own affairs.\" Investors must know when bull market psychology is dominating and exercise the necessary caution.</p><p><b>05. Pendulum effect</b></p><p>Bull markets don't appear out of nowhere. The winners in every bull market become winners for the simple reason that there are some facts behind their profits. However, the bull market I talked about above tends to inflate the value of stocks and push the stock price to levels that are too high and therefore vulnerable. And, the upward fluctuation doesn't last forever.</p><p>I once wrote in OntheCouch (January 2016): \"In the real world, things usually oscillate back and forth between'pretty good 'and'not too hot.' But in the investment world, people's expectations often change from'hopeful 'to'desperate'\". In the market, overdoing things is one of the key characteristics of investor behavior. During a bull market, investors believe that difficult, unlikely and unprecedented things will definitely work.</p><p>However, in the less prosperous period, good economic news and \"performance exceeding expectations\" failed to stimulate buying, and the rise in stock prices no longer made investors with low positions feel regret. Therefore, we see that people are no longer willing to abandon questioning for the time being, and their mentality quickly turns negative.</p><p>Investors can interpret almost any piece of news, whether it is positive or negative depends on the way it is reported and their mood, which is the key. (The cartoon below, one of my all-time favorites, was published decades ago. Look at the depth of those antennas and TV cabinets, but it's obvious that the captions are relevant to the subject of this moment.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b3a74156c69f713bc1092a9a6544f22\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>\"On Wall Street today, the news of interest rate cuts pushed the stock market higher, but then lower interest rates led to inflation expectations that pushed the stock market lower, and then people realized that interest rate cuts could stimulate a depressed economy, and this expectation pushed the stock market higher. After that, the stock market eventually fell amid the fear that the overheating economy would lead to another rate hike.\"</p><p>Turning this popular saying upside down reflects the process of \"from full of hope to despair\" I mentioned earlier. While there is some truth in supporting the idea that a bull market will happen, when it goes well, investors regard it as a certain deal. However, when some flaws in this view are exposed, people think that it is completely wrong.</p><p>On the happy days (a year ago), tech bulls said, \"You have to buy growth stocks because their earnings are likely to grow in the next few decades.\" But now, after a plunge, we hear instead: \"Investing based on future potential is too risky. You have to hold value stocks because you can determine their present value and price them reasonably.\"</p><p>Similarly, in good times, investors who participated in IPOs of loss-making companies said: \"There's nothing wrong with companies reporting losses, and it's reasonable for them to spend money to scale.\" But the story is different now, with many saying: \"Who invests in unprofitable companies? They just burn money.\"</p><p>Someone who doesn't spend much time watching the market may think that asset prices depend entirely on fundamentals, but that's not the case. Asset prices depend on fundamentals and how people view those fundamentals. As a result, changes in asset prices depend on changes in fundamentals and/or how people perceive changes in those fundamentals.</p><p>Company fundamentals are theoretically subject to so-called \"analysis,\" and possibly even forecasting. Perceptions of fundamentals, on the other hand, are subjective, unaffected by analysis or forecasts, and change more rapidly and drastically.</p><p>Some common sayings also reflect this view:</p><p><ul><li>Balloons deflate much faster than they inflate.</p><p></li><li>Things happen later than you think, but they happen much faster than you think.</p><p></li></ul>As for the latter, in my experience, we often see positive or negative fundamentals happen simultaneously for a period of time without the stock price reacting. But then a tipping point is reached-both fundamentally and psychologically-where all of a sudden is reflected in price, sometimes overreflected.</p><p><b>06. What happens then?</b></p><p>A bull market doesn't treat all industries equally. As I discussed earlier, in a bull market, optimism is most strongly focused on a certain class of stocks, such as \"new things\" or \"super stocks.\" Such stocks rose the most, becoming a symbol of the bull market during this period and attracting further buying. The media is paying the most attention to such stocks, prolonging the whole process. During 2020-2021, FAAMG and other tech stocks are prime examples of this phenomenon.</p><p>The truth is self-evident, but I still want to say that investors who hold a large number of stocks that lead the bull market are doing well. Some money managers are smart enough or lucky enough to focus on these stocks so they achieve the highest returns, optimism prevails, and at the same time, they appear on the front pages of newspapers and cable TV shows. In the past, I have said that our industry is full of people who have a reputation for making the right decisions in a row. And for fund managers who are smart enough or lucky enough to add to the sectors leading the bull market, the famous can double.</p><p>However, stocks that have made the biggest gains in rising years tend to have the biggest losses in falling years. The aphorisms that apply here come from the real world, but that doesn't make them any less relevant: \"Success is Xiao He, and failure is Xiao He\", \"There are ups and downs\" and \"The higher you climb, the harder you fall\":</p><p>The first tech fund grew 157% in 2020, going from obscurity to fame. But it's down 23% in 2021 and another 57% so far in 2022. The $100 invested at the end of 2019 was worth $257 a year later, but today it has fallen to $85. Another less volatile tech fund rose 48% in 2020 but has since fallen 48%. Unfortunately, the 48% upside and the 48% downside do not cancel each other out, in effect, there is a net decline of $22 for every $100 invested. The third tech fund rose a staggering 291% in the first year, but fell 21%, 60% and 61% in the following three years. During those four years, the $100 invested at the beginning was worth just $43 at the end, equating to an 89% drop from an incredible high at the end of the first year. Wait a minute, the current boom/bust period hasn't lasted four years yet. No, I'm quoting results from 1999-2002, when the last tech bubble also burst. I only mention them to remind you that the current performance is a reproduction of the situation. Earlier I mentioned Robinhood, the originator of commission-free trading. It epitomizes digital currency stocks during the 2020-2021 bull market. Robinhood went public at $38/share in July 2021, and the stock price surged to $85 a week later. Shares are today at just $10, down 88% from their highs in less than a year.</p><p>But the average performance of stocks is not really that bad, is it? The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down \"only\" 27.4% in 2022. One feature of this \"bull market\" is that the largest constituents perform best, thus boosting the index. Thinking about what this means for the rest of the constituent stocks, 22% of the Nasdaq's stocks are down at least 50%. (The data here and below are as of May 20)</p><p>Here are some of my random picks of the declines of well-known tech, digital currency, and innovative stocks. Maybe, when some of the stocks here are at their peak, you feel blamed for not getting them:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffeced6fe46e2035410c8d0d198ea4da\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"956\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hypothetically, you still believe that the stock price is determined by a consensus reached by smart investors based on fundamentals. If so, then why are all these stocks falling so hard? Do you really believe that the value of these businesses has evaporated by more than half on average over the past few months? This question raises some other questions that I often think about.</p><p>Bitcoin often moves in the same direction at a time of wild stock market volatility. Is there some fundamental reason behind this that leads to the correlation between the two trends? The same goes for market linkages between countries: when Japanese stocks start off sharply, European and American stocks tend to follow suit. Sometimes, it seems like the US stock market is leading the way while the Japanese stock market is slipping at the same time. Is the connection between the fundamentals of these countries sufficient to cause them to link?</p><p>My answer to all of these questions is usually \"no\". The common denominator is not fundamentals, but psychological factors, and all of these things are similarly affected when the latter changes significantly.</p><p><b>07. Experience</b></p><p>As for investing students, the most important thing is not what happens in a specific time period, but what we can learn from these events. We can learn a lot from the 2020-2021 trends that are consistent with those seen in previous cycles. In a bull market:</p><p><ul><li>Optimism is built on things that are done very well.</p><p></li><li>The impact is strongest when the stock price rises from a base that is rather depressed in both psychological and price terms.</p><p></li><li>There is no worry in bull market psychology, and it has a high level of risk tolerance, so it is accompanied by extremely aggressive behavior. Taking risks is rewarded, but the need for hard work is ignored.</p><p></li><li>High returns make people more confident that new things, small probability events, and optimistic outcomes will happen. When people are convinced of the value of these things, they tend to come to the conclusion that there are no stocks that are too expensive.</p><p></li><li>After they (and prices) reach unsustainable levels, these effects eventually cool down.</p><p></li><li>Markets at high levels are vulnerable to external events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p></li><li>The assets that gained the most, and the investors who increased their holdings, often experienced painful reversals.</p><p></li></ul>I have seen this happen many times in my career, and none of them are entirely caused by fundamentals. On the contrary, psychological factors are the main reason, and the way psychology works is unlikely to change. This is why I firmly believe that as long as humans are involved in the investment process, we will see them happen again and again.</p><p>And, note that the wild movements in the market are basically driven by psychological factors, and it is obvious that if possible, market movements can only be predicted when prices are extremely high or extremely low.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1237ed2d4679f28b36508f982605e52f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157934587","content_text":"百年来，股票市场起起伏伏，周而复始，从未有停止，无数周期如璀璨流星般从历史天空中划过。为什么会有周期，为什么投资者要将无数精力投注到与市场波动的持续抗争之中？因为他们的投资心理始终在影响市场的走向。只要人类参与投资，我们就会看到它们一次又一次地发生。在橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）这篇名为《牛市的韵律》（Bull Market Rhymes）的最新备忘录中，对牛市周期规律进行了分析，并指出通过投资者行为可判断出当下所处阶段，在股市崩盘之前趁早离场。出于对财富梦想的追求，投资者在牛市狂潮中会缺少适当的恐惧，而这种狂热心理的出现预示着风险的临近。马克斯表示，投资者必须知道牛市心理何时占据主导地位，并保持必要的谨慎态度。“牛市心理”并非褒义词，它意味着毫无警觉的行为和高风险承受能力，投资者应该感到担忧，而不是受到鼓舞：是风险厌恶和对损失的恐惧让市场保持安全和理智。马克斯指出，资产价格取决于基本面以及人们如何看待这些基本面。牛市中的高回报使人们更加相信新事物、小概率事件和乐观的结果将会发生。当人们对这些东西的价值深信不疑时，他们往往会得出“没有太贵的股票”的结论。此时新入市者大举买进，股市维持在高位。谨慎、选择性和纪律，在最需要的时候却消失不见。马克斯还以当下股市行情举例：在今时今日的华尔街，降息的消息将股市推高，但接下来利率走低导致通胀的预期把股市压低，然后，人们意识到降息能刺激萧条的经济，这种预期又将股市推高，之后，在经济过热将导致再次加息的恐惧中，股市最终下挫。马克斯直言，他信奉的是经久不衰的投资格言，因此最伟大的投资者行为应该是“智者所始，愚者所终”。以下为该备忘录的全文：虽然我在备忘录中运用了大量格言和引语，但只有少数能够进入我的首选名单，我最爱之一是马克吐温的名言：历史不会重演，但会以相似的韵律重复。有据可查的是，马克吐温在1874年说过前四个词，但是并没有准确的证据表明他曾说过后面的话。多年来，有很多人说过类似的话。1965年，精神分析学家Theodor Reik在名为“遥不可及”的文章中表达过同样的观点。他自己又多加了几句，我认为他的表述是最好的：周期是反复的，起起伏伏，但过程基本相同，变化很小。有人说历史会重演，但这可能不太准确，历史只是以相似的韵律重复。曾经的投资事件不会重演，但事件主旋律确实会重现，尤其是与投资行为相关的，这正是我研究的内容。在过去两年间，Reik所写道的周期经历了起起伏伏，引发市场注目。让我尤其震惊的，是在投资行为中再度出现的典型风格，这将成为本次备忘录的主题。我先提前声明，本次备忘录并不能预估市场的潜在方向。举个例子，市场看涨行为从2020年3月触及底部开始，但自那时起，经济内部（通货膨胀）和经济外部（俄乌冲突）都发生了严重问题，并且出现了重大调整。包括我在内，没有人能够知道这些事情加在一起会对未来造成何种影响。我写这篇备忘录的目的，只是为了将近期事件放在历史的背景下，从中发现一些隐含的经验教训。这一点至关重要，因为我们必须回到22年前，回到2000年科技—传媒—电信泡沫破灭之前，看看当时真正牛市的开始和由此引发的熊市结束。很多读者因为开始投资的时间较晚，没有经历过当时的事件。你可能会问“在2008-2009年全球金融危机和2020年疫情大流行导致市场崩溃之前，市场收益情况如何？”在我看来，在这两场危机之前，市场都是渐进式上涨，并不是沿着抛物线上行。上涨不是由狂热情绪推动的，股价也没有被推升至疯狂的高度，而且高股价并不是造成任何一场危机的原因。2008-2009年危机是源自房地产市场和次贷证券化的出现，2020年崩溃则是因为新冠疫情的流行和政府为控制疫情而关闭经济。对于前面所说的“真正牛市”，我对它的定义并不是来自投资百科网站（Investopedia）：金融市场中资产或证券价格在一段时间内持续上涨。市场通常在股价下跌20%之后，出现20%的上涨。第一个定义过于平淡，没能捕捉到投资者在牛市行情中的核心情绪。第二个定义提供了一种错误的精准，牛市不应该用价格的百分比变化来定义。对我来说，最好用它给人的感觉、背后的投资者心理以及由此引发的投资行为来进行描述。（在牛市和熊市的数字标准被制定之前，我就已经开始投资，我认为这样的标准毫无意义。标普500指数下跌19.9%还是20.1%真的很重要吗？我还是更喜欢熊市的老派定义—神经折磨（nerve-racking）。01、过度与修正我的第二本书是《周期》（Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side）。众所周知，我是周期的学生，也是周期的信徒。这些年我作为投资者，经历了几个重要的周期（也接受了教育）。我相信了解自己在市场周期中的位置，可以提示我们接下来会发生的事情。但是当我把这本书写完三分之二时，我突然想到一个之前从没考虑过的问题：为什么会有周期？比如，标普500指数自1957年诞生，这65年的平均年回报率略高于10%，为什么它的回报率不能每年都是10%？在这里补充一下我在2004年7月备忘录《中庸之道》中提出的问题，为什么在这期间标普500指数的回报率只有6次在8%—12%之间，为什么它在90%时间里的表现都与此相差甚远？在经过一段时间思考之后，我认为可以这么解释，那就是市场存在“过度与修正”。如果把股票市场比作一台机器，你希望它能够随着时间的推移持续稳定地运转，这个想法是合理的。然而，我认为投资者心理状态对其决策造成的重大影响，可以在很大程度上解释市场出现波动的原因。当投资者开始大举看涨时，他们倾向于得出以下结论。首先，一切都将永远上涨；其次，无论他们为一项资产支付多高的价格，其他人都会以更高的价格从他们手中买走（即“更大傻瓜”理论），因为他们对市场高度非常乐观：股价上涨速度会比公司利润增速更快，涨幅会远高于公允价值（超额上涨）。之后投资环境开始令人失望，出高价的愚蠢举动变得很显眼，股价会跌落至公允价值（修正），之后进一步跌破该价格水平。股价下跌会进一步引发市场悲观情绪，由此导致股价下挫，并远远低于其本身价值（过度下跌）。最终抄底买入会助推低迷股价回升至其公允价值（修正）。过度上涨会导致回报率在一段时间内高于平均水平，而过度下挫也会导致回报率在一段时间内低于平均水平。当然，可能还有其他因素在发挥作用，但是我认为，“过度和修正”可以解释大部分情况。在2020-2021年期间，我们看到股市有些过度上涨，而现在我们看到它们正在被修正。02、牛市心理学在牛市行情中，有利环境会引领股价上涨并提振投资者信心，而这种投资信心会诱发激进操作，之后会进一步引发股价上涨，那么接下来会出现更加乐观的投资心态以及持续的冒险操作。这种上升式螺旋就是牛市的本质，其上升过程看起来似乎势不可挡。在疫情大流行初期，我们见证了一场典型的资产价格崩盘。标普500指数先是在2020年2月19日创下3386点的历史新高，随后在短短34天内重挫三分之一，并在3月23日跌至2237点。但是之后在多种力量共同努力下，股价又出现大幅上涨：其中美联储将联邦基金利率下调至接近零的水平，并与财政部一道宣布了大规模经济刺激措施。这些行动让投资者相信，国家机构会不惜一切代价稳定经济。降息显著降低了投资的预期回报，影响其相对吸引力。这些因素结合在一起，迫使投资者开始承受短期内出现的风险。随后资产价格出现上涨：到当年8月底，标普500指数已经收回所有失地，并涨超2月高点。FAAMG（脸书、亚马逊、苹果、微软和谷歌）、软件股和其他科技股大幅上涨，推动市场走高。最终，投资者得出结论，认为他们可以期待股市持续上涨，这也符合他们此前在牛市行情中的常规心态。就像上面最后一点，在牛市心理中最重要的是，就是大多数人认为股价上涨是预示之后行情的积极信号，不少人开始变得乐观。只有少数人会怀疑这种行情是过度上涨，其收益是依赖未来预期，所以上涨并不会持续，并且行情将发生逆转。这让我想起了我最喜欢的另一句格言，是大约在50年前我最早学会的一句，即“牛市的三个阶段”：第一阶段，当一些有远见的人开始押注牛市或将到来；第二阶段，当大多数投资者意识到牛市正在发生；第三阶段，当每个人都认为牛市会永远持续下去。有意思的是，虽然在美联储的主导下，股市从2020年3月的疲软底部快速转变为5月的繁荣景象，但是半信半疑才是我在这期间最常见到的投资者心理，他们问我最多的问题是：环境这么糟糕，疫情大流行肆虐加上经济停滞，股市还能上涨？那时很难找到乐观主义者。很多投资者成为我已故岳父所描述的“戴手铐的人”：他们买股票不是因为自己想买，而是他们不得不买，因为现金回报率很低。一旦股市开始上涨，由于担心会被抛在后面，所以他们会追逐更高的价格。因此，股市上涨似乎是源自美联储对资本市场的操纵，而不是来自企业的良好业绩或投资者的乐观情绪。直到2020年底，在标普500指数较3月底部上涨67.9%，全年累计上涨16.3%之后，投资者的心理状态才终于赶上飙升的股价。牛市很少能够经历第一阶段，经历第二阶段的概率也很低，许多投资者都是从当年3月底的深度绝望直接转变为后来的极度乐观。对当下来说，这就是一个很好的提醒。虽然有些历史事件的主旋律确实会重复出现，但是期待历史精确重演就是一个很大的错误。03、乐观理由、超级股票和新生事物在狂热的牛市行情中，投资者会变得歇斯底里。在极端情况下，他们的想法和行为会脱离实际。这里的前提是，必须出现一些要素既能激发投资者想象力，还能阻止他们谨慎思考。因此值得注意的是，总有一些要素会在牛市中出现：新的发展、新的发明以及推动股票上涨的理由。从定义上看，牛市的特点是繁荣向上、信心倍增、容易轻信以及投资者愿意为资产支付高价，而所有这些要素都在事后被证明是超出了限度。历史经验表明，将这些特点保持在合理范围内是至关重要的。鉴于这个原因，能够刺激牛市出现的理性或感性原因都来自新生事物，无法通过历史经验解释。历史充分证明，当市场出现看涨行为，股票估值被推高，以及投资者开始毫不犹豫地接受新生事物时，后果往往是非常痛苦的。每个人都知道（或者应该知道）在股市呈现抛物线上涨之后通常会下跌20%—50%。然而正如我在高中英语课上学到的“自愿终止怀疑”（the willing suspension of disbelief），上述行为仍在投资者中不断发生，反复出现。下面是我最喜欢的另一句名言：狂喜的感觉在过去和现在都鲜为人知。人们对金融市场的记忆非常短暂，这就导致金融危机很快就会被遗忘。而当相同或者非常相似的情况再度重演时，就算发生在几年之内，在年轻且极度自信的新一代眼中，这场危机也会被誉为是金融界和经济领域的重大发现。在人类涉猎的行业中，很少有行业像金融业一样，曾经的历史经验如此没有意义。在某种程度上，历史经验完全成为回忆的一部分，对于那些无力欣赏眼下盛景的人而言，成为了他们的原始避难所—John Kenneth Galbraith，《金融狂喜简史》，1990年在过去30年里，我多次与读者分享这句话，因为我认为它很好地总结了一些重要的观点，但针对其中所描述的行为，我之前并没有分享过我对它的理解。我不认为投资者是健忘的。相反，对历史的了解和适当的谨慎态度位于天平的一侧，追求财富的梦想位于天平的另一侧，而后者总是获胜。回忆、谨慎、现实主义和风险规避只会阻碍致富梦想的实现。所以出于这个原因，当牛市行情开始时，投资者总是缺少适度的担忧。取而代之的往往是为超出历史估值标准寻找理由。1987年10月11日，Anise Wallace在《纽约时报》上发表的一篇题为《为什么这个市场周期并没有什么不同》的文章中描述了这种现象。当时人们持有乐观、积极的情绪，为异常高的股价寻找合理性，但Wallace在文中指出，这种想法是站不住脚的：74岁的共同基金经理约翰·邓普顿曾指出，投资中最危险的四个字是“这次不同”。在股市大起大落时，投资者总会用这一理由来将其情绪驱动的决策合理化。在接下来的一年里，许多投资者可能会重复这四个字，为高股价辩护。但他们更应该持有“有钱了我就还你”（the check’s in the mail找借口拖延）的态度来看待股市上涨，不管经纪人或基金经理怎么说，牛市不会永远持续下去。结果，没花一年时间，仅仅八天后，全球遭遇了“黑色星期一”，道琼斯工业指数单日暴跌22.6%。对牛市的另一个解释是投资者相信某些企业一定会拥有美好的未来。这适用于20世纪60年代末的“漂亮50”成长股；80年代的半导体制造商；以及90年代末的电信、互联网和电子商务公司。人们认为，每一项发展都能够改变世界，因此，过去的商业现实并不能限制投资者的想象力和投资意愿。他们确实改变了世界。尽管如此，曾被认为合理的高估值并没有持续下去。在许多牛市中，一或多个群体被我称之为“超级股票”，它们的迅速崛起让投资者越来越乐观。日益增长的乐观情绪将股价推向高点，成为以往市场循环过程中的一个特征。通过相对价值比较和投资者情绪的普遍改善，这种积极性和估值走高进一步反映到其他证券（或所有证券）的估值中。回顾前两年，在2020—2021年，FAAMG（脸书、亚马逊、苹果、微软和谷歌）在令投资者兴奋不已的公司中位居榜首，其市场主导地位和规模能力前所未有的。2020年FAAMG的惊艳表现吸引了投资者的注意，并支持了普遍的看涨趋势。到2020年9月（六个月内），这些股票与3月份的低点相比，几乎翻了一番，较年初上涨了61%。值得一提的是，这五只股票在标普500指数中权重很大，因此它们的表现导致指数整体涨势良好，但这分散了人们对其他495只表现不佳股票的注意力。FAAMG的巨大成功为科技股带来了普遍的积极影响，投资者对科技股的需求激增，与投资领域的情况一样，强劲的需求刺激并增加了供应。在这种情况下，一个值得注意的晴雨表是未盈利的公司对待IPO的态度。在20世纪90年代末互联网泡沫之前，没有盈利的公司的IPO相对较少，在泡沫期间期间激增，但此后数量再次下降。在2020-2021年的牛市中，未盈利的首次公开募股（IPO）经历了一次大的反弹，因为投资者愿意支持科技公司规模化的愿望和生物科技公司在药物试验上的开支需求。如果拥有光明前景的公司为牛市提供了动力，那么市场上的新兴事物可能会起到推波助澜的作用，加剧其上涨。SPAC（借壳上市）是最近一个典型的例子。投资者为这些新成立的公司开展收购活动提供了空白支票，在满足以下两个条件后可以连本带利拿回资金，“如果两年内没有完成收购，或者如果投资者不同意拟议的收购”。这似乎是一个“稳赚不赔”（世界上最危险的一个词）的买卖，SPAC的数量从2013年的10个和2019年的59个飙升至2020年的248个和2021的613个。一些公司获得了巨额利润，而在其他情况下，投资者连本带息收回了资金。但是，由于缺乏对未经考验的创新的怀疑，加之牛市心理的推动，使得太多SPAC被创造出来，无论是由称职的还是不称职的发起者，他们都会因完成收购而获得高额报酬......任何收购。如今，自2020年以来通过完成收购并退出的SPAC平均售价为5.25美元，而发行价为10.00美元。这是一个很好的例子，证明了新事物并不是投资者所想的那么可靠——投资者再次为“一定不会发生的事”付出代价。SPAC的支持者则认为，这些实体只是公司上市的另一种方式，并不担心它的潜在作用。我重点关注的是，投资者在火热时期如何欣然接受一项未经考验的创新。另一个有关创新因素的动态也值得一提，其展示了“新事物”是如何对牛市作出了贡献：Robinhood Markets在疫情暴发前几年开始提供股票、Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF和加密货币等的免佣金交易。新冠疫情暴发后，这就鼓励了人们涌向股市，开始炒股，因为赌场和体育赛事停止了赌博业务。数百万没有失业的人得到了慷慨的财政补贴，这意味着许多人在疫情期间的可支配收入增加了。而像Reddit这样的社交网站把投资转变成一种“隔离居家的社交活动”。因此，大量的新手散户投资者涌向股市，其中许多人缺乏基本的投资经验。新手会因崇拜某位公众人物而激动不已，并声称“股市只会上涨” 。因此，许多科技股和“模因股”（抱团散户股）价格飙升。最后一个值得讨论的新兴事物是加密货币。例如，比特币的支持者列举了其多种用途，以及相对于潜在需求其供应是有限的。另一方面，怀疑论者指出，比特币缺乏现金流和内在价值，因此无法确定公允价格。无论哪一方是正确的，比特币都满足从牛市中受益的一些特征：比特币相对较新的（虽然它已经存在14年了，但最近五年人们才关注到它）。比特币价格大幅飙升，从2020年的5000美元上涨到2021年的最高点68000美元。根据Galbrait的说法，这肯定是前几代人“无法欣赏”事物。从所有这些方面来看，这完全符合Galbrait的描述，即“由新的、年轻且十分自信的一代人热烈拥护，认为是金融领域伟大的创新发明”的事物。现在，比特币与2021的高点相比下跌了一半多，但已经存在的数千种其他加密货币，跌幅要更大。2020年FAAMG、科技股、SPACs、抱团股和加密货币的惊人表现使得这种迷恋更加狂热，并增加了投资者的普遍乐观情绪。很难想象在没有前所未见或闻所未闻的情况下，会出现一个全面的牛市。“新新事物”和“这次不同”的信念是牛市主题反复出现的典型特征。04、逐底竞争不同周期中的另一个牛市主题是，牛市趋势对投资者决策质量的有害影响。简言之，当冷静理智被燃烧的乐观情绪取代时：资产价格上涨贪婪盖过恐惧不再担心亏损，转向担忧踏空风险厌恶和小心谨慎逐渐消失必须记住，是风险厌恶和对损失的恐惧让市场保持安全和理智。上述事态发展通常会提振市场，使谨慎和理智思考消失，令其成为危险之地。我曾在2007年的备忘录《逐底竞争》中解释说，当投资者和资本提供者手中有太多资金，他们太渴望投入使用时，所以对证券和放贷机会的出价就过于激进。激烈的竞价压低了预期回报，增加了风险，削弱了安全结构，并降低了容错率。谨慎的投资者坚持己见，说：“我坚持8%的利息和强力契约。”其竞争对手回应道：“我接受7%的利息，并要求更少的契约。”最不守规矩的人不想错过这个机会，说：“我可以接受6%的利息，且不需要契约。”这是“逐底竞争”，这正是人们常说的“最差的贷款来自于最好的时候”。当人们对最近的损失感到痛心，害怕经历更多损失时，这是不可能发生的事情。美联储为应对全球金融危机采取大规模的措施后，迎来了了长达10多年的创纪录经济复苏和股市上涨，但伴随而来的还有：亏损公司的IPO浪潮次级证券（高风险CCC评级债券）创纪录的发行高波动性行业（科技和软件）公司大量发债，而谨慎的时期人们往往会选择回避这些行业并购和收购的估值倍数不断上升风险溢价持续走低有利的发展也鼓励更多地使用杠杆。杠杆放大收益和损失，但在牛市中，投资者确信收益是必然的，而忽视损失的可能性。在这种情况下，很少有人能找到不举债的理由，因为债务的利息成本微乎其微，且可以增加成功的回报。但是，在上涨周期后期以高价增加负债并不是成功的最佳方式。当情况变得糟糕时，杠杆就会变得不利。当投资银行在投资末期发行债务时，他们就会陷入困境。“挂在”银行资产负债表上的债务往往会成为“煤矿里的金丝雀”，暗示危险即将到来。由于我信奉的是经久不衰的投资格言，因此，在这一点上，引用我认为最伟大的投资者行为的格言是十分恰当的，“智者所始，愚者所终”。在牛市的第一阶段购买股票的人，由于普遍的悲观情绪（如2008-09年全球金融危机期间和2020年新冠疫情初期），价格较低，有可能在风险极小的情况下获得丰厚的回报，主要先决条件是资金和胆量。但当牛市升温，可观的回报鼓励了投资者乐观的情绪，此时获得回报的特质是渴望、轻信和冒险。在牛市的第三阶段，新入市者大举买进，股市维持在高位。谨慎、选择性和纪律，在最需要的时候却消失不见。特别值得注意的是，乐观情绪并因风险承受能力而获得回报的投资者通常不再对投资机会进行辨别。投资者不仅认为一些“新事物”的肯定会成功，而且最终他们得出结论是，该领域前途一片光明，因此没有必要再进行区分。由于上述原因，“牛市心理”并非褒义词。它意味着毫无警觉的行为和高风险承受能力，投资者应该感到担忧，而不是受到鼓舞。正如巴菲特所言，“别人处理自己的事情越不谨慎小心,我们处理自己的事情就越要谨慎小心”。投资者必须知道牛市心理何时占据主导地位，并保持必要的谨慎态度。05、钟摆效应牛市不是凭空出现的。每次牛市中的赢家之所以成为赢家，原因很简单，即他们获利的背后存在一些事实。然而，我上面所说的牛市往往会夸大股票价值，并将股价推至过高也因此脆弱的水平。并且，向上的波动不会永远持续下去。我曾在《躺在沙发上》（OntheCouch，2016年1月）中写道：“在现实世界中，事情通常在‘相当好’和‘不太热’之间来回摆动。但在投资世界中，人们的预期往往从‘充满希望’变为‘绝望’”。在市场中，把事情做得严重过头是投资者行为的关键特征之一。牛市期间，投资者认为，有难度、不大可能发生和前所未有的事情肯定会奏效。但在不那么景气的时期，利好的经济消息和“业绩超过预期”并未能刺激买盘，股价上涨也不再使持仓水平较低的投资者感到后悔。因此，我们看到，人们不再愿意暂时摒弃质疑，心态迅速转为消极。投资者能够对几乎任意一条新闻进行解读，正面还是负面取决于报道方式和他们的心情，这是关键所在。（下面的漫画，我一直以来的最爱之一，是几十年前出版的，看看那些天线和电视机柜的深度，但显而易见，文字说明才与这一刻的主题有关。）“在今时今日的华尔街，降息的消息将股市推高，但接下来利率走低导致通胀的预期把股市压低，然后，人们意识到降息能刺激萧条的经济，这种预期又将股市推高，之后，在经济过热将导致再次加息的恐惧中，股市最终下挫。”将这个盛行的说法倒过来，便反映出我之前提到的“从充满希望到绝望”的过程。虽然支持牛市会发生的观点有些道理，但当进展顺利时，投资者便将其视为板上钉钉的事。然而，当这个观点的某些缺陷暴露出来时，人们又认为它完全错误。在欢乐的日子里（在一年前），科技多头说：“你必须买成长股，因为未来几十年它们的收益很可能会增长。”但现在，在经历了一轮暴跌之后，我们反而听到：“基于未来潜力的投资风险太大。你必须持有价值股，因为能够确定它们的现值，另外定价较为合理。”同样，在经济繁荣时期，参与亏损公司IPO的投资人表示：“报告亏损的公司没有什么问题，他们花钱扩大规模合情合理。”但现在的说法不一样了，许多人表示：“谁会投资于无利可图的公司？他们只会烧钱。”没有花太多时间观察市场的人可能认为资产价格完全取决于基本面，但事实并非如此。资产价格取决于基本面以及人们如何看待这些基本面。因此，资产价格的变化取决于基本面的变化和/或人们如何看待这些基本面的变化。公司基本面理论上受制于所谓的“分析”，甚至可能是预测。另一方面，对基本面的看法是主观的，不受分析或预测的影响，并且变化得更快、更剧烈。一些俗语也反映了这个观点：气球放气的速度比充气的速度快得多。事情发生的时间比你想象的要晚，但是它们发生的速度比你想象的要快得多。至于后者，根据我的经验，我们经常看到积极或消极的基本面会在一段时间内同时出现，而股价却没有反应。但随后达到了一个临界点——无论是基本面还是心理面——全部突然反映在价格上，有时甚至反映过度。06、然后会发生什么？牛市不会对所有行业一视同仁。正如我之前所讨论的，在牛市中，乐观情绪最强烈地集中在某类股票上，例如“新事物”或“超级股票”。这类股票涨幅最大，成为这一时期牛市的象征，并吸引进一步的买盘。媒体最关注这类股票，延长了整个过程。在2020-2021年期间，FAAMG和其他科技股就是这种现象的最好例子。道理不言而喻，但我还是要说，持有大量在牛市中领先的股票的投资者都做得很好。一些基金经理足够聪明或足够幸运地专注于这些股票，因此他们实现的回报最高，乐观情绪盛行，与此同时，他们还出现在报纸和有线电视节目的头版。过去，我曾说过，我们的行业到处都是因连续做出正确决定而出名的人。而对于那些足够聪明或幸运地增持引领牛市的板块的基金经理来说，出名的人可能会翻倍。然而，在上涨年份中涨幅最大的股票往往在下跌年份中跌幅最大。这里适用的格言来自现实世界，但这并没有降低它们的相关性：“成也萧何，败也萧何”“有起必有落”和“爬得越高，摔得越狠”：第一支科技基金在2020年增长了157%，从默默无闻到名声大震。但它在2021年下跌了23%，2022年迄今又下跌了57%。2019年底投资的100美元在一年后价值257美元，但如今已跌至85美元。另一支波动性较小的科技基金在2020年上涨了48%，但此后下跌了48%。不幸的是，上涨的48%和下跌的48%并无法相互抵消，实际上，每投资100美元，净下跌22美元。第三支科技基金在第一年上涨了惊人的291%，但在随后的三年中分别下跌了21%、60%和61%。在这四年里，开始时投资的100美元在最后仅价值43美元，相当于从第一年年底不可思议的高点下降了89%。等一下，目前的繁荣/萧条期还没有持续四年。不，我引用的是1999-2002年的结果，当时最后一个科技泡沫也破裂了。我提它们只是为了提醒你当前的表现是一次情景再现。前面我提到过免佣金交易的鼻祖Robinhood。它是2020-2021年牛市期间数字货币股的缩影。Robinhood于2021年7月以38美元/股的价格上市，一周后股价飙升至85美元。如今的股价仅为10美元，在不到一年的时间里从高位下跌了88%。但是股票的平均表现其实并没有那么糟糕，对吧？以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数在2022年“仅”下跌27.4%。这个“牛市”的一个特征是，最大的成分股表现最好，从而提振了指数。思考一下这对其余成分股意味着什么，纳指22%的股票至少下跌了50%。（此处和下面数据的时间截至5月20日）以下是我随机挑选的一些知名科技、数字货币和创新型股票的跌幅。也许，当这里的一些股票处于巅峰的时候，你因为没有入手而感到自责：假设，你仍然相信股价是由聪明的投资者根据基本面达成的共识决定的。如果是这样，那为什么所有这些股票都跌得如此惨烈？你真的相信这些企业的价值在过去几个月平均蒸发了一半以上吗？这个问题引发了一些我经常在想的其他问题。在股市出现剧烈波动之际，比特币经常朝同一个方向变动。这背后是否存在某种根本原因导致两者之间走势存在相关性？国家之间的市场联系也是如此：当日本股市开局大幅下滑时，欧美股市往往会跟跌。有时，似乎美国股市领先，日本股市却同时出现下滑。这些国家基本面之间的联系是否足以导致它们联动？我对所有这些问题的回答通常都是“不”。共同点不是基本面，而是心理因素，当后者发生重大变化时，所有这些事情都会受到类似的影响。07、经验正如对于投资专业的学生来说，最重要的不是在特定时间段内发生了什么事，而是我们可以从这些事件中学到什么。我们可以从2020-2021年的趋势中学到很多东西，这些趋势与前几个周期的趋势是一致的。在牛市中：乐观是基于那些做得非常好的事情而建立的。当股价从在心理和价位方面均相当低迷的基数上涨时，影响最为强烈。牛市心理不存在担忧情绪，并且具有高水平的风险承受能力，因此伴随极为激进的行为。承担风险会得到回报，而努力勤奋的必要性却被遭到忽视。高回报使人们更加相信新事物、小概率事件和乐观的结果将会发生。当人们对这些东西的价值深信不疑时，他们往往会得出“没有太贵的股票”的结论。在它们（和价格）达到不可持续的水平之后，这些影响最终会降温。处于高位的市场容易受到外部事件的影响，例如俄乌冲突。涨幅最大的资产以及增持它们的投资者，往往会经历痛苦的反转。在我的职业生涯中，我曾多次目睹此类事情发生，当中没有一次完全是由基本面造成的，相反，心理因素是主要原因，而心理的运作方式又不太可能发生改变。这就是为什么我坚信只要人类参与投资过程，我们就会看到它们一次又一次地发生。而且，请注意，市场的剧烈波动基本上是由心理因素驱动的，显而易见，如果可能的话，只有当价格极高或极低时，才能预测市场走势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065919765,"gmtCreate":1652138859957,"gmtModify":1676535036265,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065919765","repostId":"2234884616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062880044,"gmtCreate":1652051013188,"gmtModify":1676535017614,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576803992145384","authorIdStr":"3576803992145384"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062880044","repostId":"2233559861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2233559861","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1652014810,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2233559861?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-08 21:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The selling wave of U.S. stocks is intensifying. Will this data become a turning point in the market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2233559861","media":"第一财经","summary":"华尔街又经历了动荡的五个交易日。美联储决议并未像3月那样成为短期市场的底部，三大股指延续了4月以来的调整步伐。风险资产抛售潮的背后，是投资者对美国经济软着陆的担忧。市场开始将目光转向了即将公布的消费者","content":"<p><div>Wall Street had another volatile five trading days. The Federal Reserve's decision did not become the bottom of the short-term market as it did in March, and the three major stock indexes continued the pace of adjustment since April. Behind the sell-off of risky assets are investors' worries about a soft landing of the US economy. The market has begun to turn its attention to the upcoming consumer price index (CPI). The impact of the data on inflation expectations may suppress funds' speculation about the path of the rate hike, thus bringing respite to the market that continues to fall. The game of inflation expectations heats up. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is undoubtedly the biggest focus in the near future. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to put the federal...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101405369.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The selling wave of U.S. stocks is intensifying. Will this data become a turning point in the market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe selling wave of U.S. stocks is intensifying. Will this data become a turning point in the market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-08 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Wall Street had another volatile five trading days. The Federal Reserve's decision did not become the bottom of the short-term market as it did in March, and the three major stock indexes continued the pace of adjustment since April. Behind the sell-off of risky assets are investors' worries about a soft landing of the US economy. The market has begun to turn its attention to the upcoming consumer price index (CPI). The impact of the data on inflation expectations may suppress funds' speculation about the path of the rate hike, thus bringing respite to the market that continues to fall. The game of inflation expectations heats up. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is undoubtedly the biggest focus in the near future. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to put the federal...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101405369.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101405369.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/528f1b5f95c1aa85d740d858963e7e8f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101405369.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2233559861","content_text":"华尔街又经历了动荡的五个交易日。美联储决议并未像3月那样成为短期市场的底部，三大股指延续了4月以来的调整步伐。风险资产抛售潮的背后，是投资者对美国经济软着陆的担忧。市场开始将目光转向了即将公布的消费者物价指数（CPI），数据对通胀预期的影响可能会打压资金对于加息路径的猜测，进而为持续下跌的市场带来喘息机会。通胀预期博弈升温美联储议息会议无疑是近期最大焦点，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）决定将联邦基金利率上调至0.75%-1.00%，这也是2000年以来首次加息50个基点。与此同时，缩减资产负债表计划也随之公布，美联储计划在9月将缩表规模提升至950亿美元，这是历史上最快的缩表周期之一。通过收紧货币政策，美联储希望在实现控制通胀的同时，避免经济衰退的发生。在一季度国内生产总值（GDP）意外回落后，本周公布的包括制造业、服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）、贸易逆差等数据，都在显示美国经济动能有进一步放缓的迹象。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，高涨的物价问题仍然是美联储的主要担忧，快速上涨的商品和服务价格，正在侵蚀美国家庭收入，对消费者信心形成了负面影响。考虑到供应链瓶颈和地缘政治因素，美联储想要在政策和经济之间找到平衡点，正面临巨大挑战。货币政策开始对信贷市场产生冲击。房地美上周报告称，30年期抵押贷款利率达到5.27%，比此前一周上升17个基点，为2009年以来的最高水平。从近两周公布的成屋销售、新屋开工等数据看，新一轮加息周期和即将开始的缩表周期，让买房者在不断上涨的房价面前开始望而却步。值得注意的是，美联储加息后，高涨的通胀预期并未随之明显降温。虽然美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上称，并未对75个基点加息“积极考虑”，根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）利率观察工具FedWatch的最新数据，投资者认为6月加息75基点的可能性高达83%，而美联储上一次这么做还是在1994年11月。在外界看来，未来通胀的走向将很大程度上决定美联储的加息路径。最新公布的非农就业报告显示，劳动力市场需求依然强劲，但小时薪资增速较上月有所放缓。施瓦茨认为，随着储蓄率下降和管制措施放松，美国劳动力市场供应增加将给工资增长带来下行压力，这有望印证鲍威尔对“工资-价格螺旋”的风险评估。市场已经把目光转向下周将公布的CPI，如果增速能从此前创造的40年高位回落的话，通胀预期的有效降温可能缓解美联储的政策压力。施瓦茨告诉第一财经记者，他认为75个基点的加息幅度过于激进，更倾向于美联储将在未来两次会议继续加息50个基点，以避免出现政策收紧过快冲击经济的情况。市场反弹是否临近美联储加息周期的冲击波仍在延续，芝加哥期权交易所市场波动性指数（VIX）本周一度冲击年内新高。目前道指已经连跌六周，标普500指数自2011年以来首次出现周线五连阴的情况。科技股持续表现不佳，截至6日收盘，纳指较去年11月历史高点已经回撤近25%。政策预期不断推高美债收益率，基准10年期美债上周一度触及突破3.10%，冲击了其依赖现金流的估值体系。美国投资公司爱德华琼斯(EdwardJones)的投资策略师库尔卡法斯（Angelo Kourkafas）表示：“成长股表现不佳与实际收益率的上升直接相关，而目前实际收益率已经处于正区间。其实问题不仅在于不同利率制度带来的估值压力，还在于相关需求有所提前，这是本财报季相关板块所表现出的主要趋势之一。”市场动荡也打压了投资者情绪。美国个人投资者协会（AAII）最新每周调查显示，个人投资者对未来六个月前景“看跌”的比例上升至59.4%，为2009年以来的最高水平。另一项情绪指标——市场恐惧与贪婪指数已经连续第四周处于恐慌区间。投资者继续抛售各类风险资产。金融市场数据和基础设施提供商路孚特（Refinitiv Lipper）的数据显示，截至5月4日的一周内，美国投资者抛售了价值55.2亿美元的债券基金，连续净卖出达到17周，股票基金净流出37.6亿美元，其中成长型基金卖出39.3亿美元。避险情绪推动下，本周货币市场基金录得净买入26.3亿美元。美股连续调整后，不少资金在衍生品市场上为超跌反弹摩拳擦掌。根据嘉信理财为第一财经记者提供的数据，过去一周，VIX看涨期权和看跌期权未平仓量分别环比增长1.8%和14.7%，与此同时，标普500指数看涨期权未平仓量增长2.6%，看跌期权回落1.5%，两者都显示，投资者在押注短期美股将企稳回升。不过，不少华尔街机构认为，本轮市场调整的低点尚未出现。高盛首席经济学家哈齐乌斯（Jan Hatzius）上周预计，美股将出现震荡下跌的走势。他在报告中写道：“如果我们短期不会出现衰退的预测是正确的，那么今年迄今为止看到的模式可能会继续下去：只要衰退不正式出现，股市就会不断探底反抽，同时利率曲线和大宗商品价格会随着时间的推移继续走高。”文末，让我们看看市场将有哪些重要事件及重要财报吧！下周前瞻 | 美国4月CPI即将揭晓；西方石油、理想汽车财报来袭周一，佛诞翌日，港股休市，美股正常开市。周二起，港股开始交易。经济数据方面，中国4月贸易帐、货币供应数据、美国批发销售数据将公布。周二，经济数据方面，美国4月NFIB小型企业信心指数、中国4月全社会用电量等数据将公布。事件方面，FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯将发表讲话。周三，经济数据方面，中国4月CPI/PPI、美国4月CPI等重要经济数据将公布。新股方面，云康集团新股申购结束。周四，经济数据方面，美国4月PPI、美国当周初请失业金人数等数据将公布。周五，经济数据方面，美国4月进口物价指数、5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数等数据将公布。事件方面，2023年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利将就能源和通胀发表讲话。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}