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2021-04-23
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What If Apple Sinks Following Results?
JJ11
2021-04-23
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Analysts' consensus estimates forecast revenue to have climbed by 32.2% vs. last year to $77.1 billion, with earnings expected to have jumped by 54.3% to $0.98 per share.</p>\n<p>Much of that growth is expected to come from the iPhone, with sales seen rising by 42.3% to $41.2 billion. A 17% jump follows that in services to $15.6 billion, and 24.1% rise in wearables and other products to $7.8 billion. To make it more interesting, those iPhone estimates have been creeping up, rising from around $39.6 billion at the end of January.</p>\n<p>The big question, and certainly what has weighed the most on the stock in recent quarters, is Apple's willingness to provide guidance. Since the pandemic began, Apple has not provided guidance. It's the main reason why the stock sank despite better than expectedfirst quarter results. The fiscal third quarter revenue is seen rising by 15.4% to $68.8 billion, while earnings rise by 27.1% to $0.82 per share.</p>\n<p><b>Premium Valuation</b></p>\n<p>A lack of guidance is sure to weigh heavily on the stock, and investors will likely punish the shares if that should happen. The stock is not cheap currently, and investors are clearly giving a lot of credit and confidence in management's ability to steer through the coronavirus pandemic. Because of that and the company's balance sheet, investors have given this stock a premium valuation, trading for 28.5 times 2022 earnings estimates of $4.70 per share. That's nearly 50% higher than its historical PE of 17.1 over the past five years.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5648c30557ded937a07b41727b14fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\">The stock also is trading with a premium one-year forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.4, double its 10-year average of 3.2. That average would be even lower, if not for the run-up since the winter of 2018. Before that time, the peak price-to-sales ratio had been 4.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0608c62def162aa4091dbdb3aa93ed0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\">When investors and the market give a company this much of a premium, the market expects to get what it wants, and no matter how glorious results are for the second quarter, the absences of third guidance, to the detail level the market wants, could result in the stock selling off, again, like it did last quarter.</p>\n<p>Apple, to its credit, has delivered better than expected earnings and revenue 12 quarters in a row. It would come as a big shock to the market if Apple missed estimates.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd6853280db9e469470a507b235287c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"></p>\n<p><i>(Apple Earnings Beats - Seeking Alpha)</i></p>\n<p><b>Options Trades</b></p>\n<p>Options traders are betting the company disappoints, and the stock sinks between now and expiration on June 18. Since the beginning of April, traders have been building up big positions for both the $135 puts and calls. Over that time, both options have seen their open interest levels rise by roughly 65,000 contracts each. The data shows most of the calls have been sold, and most of the puts have been bought. The calls have been sold for approximately $3.50 and $4.15. Meanwhile, the puts have been bought for around $10 and $11. This would suggest that the trader paid roughly $7 per contract and would need the stock to fall to approximately $128 or lower to start earning a profit on the trade, a drop of at least 4%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/480f4ad744e1cdb2fad5bd1013a25ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\"><b>Technicals</b></p>\n<p>If the stock falls to $128, it will probably fall further, based on the technical chart. The stock is currently sitting on a key level of resistance at $130, and if that level of resistance breaks at $130, it likely will trigger a decline to $118, a drop of about 10%. The RSIalso issignaling weakness and lower prices. It has been trending lower since peaking in September.</p>\n<p>It's possible to see the stock climb to around $138 ahead of earnings though that's likely where it would meet extreme resistance. The stock does have a history of moving higher into earnings and then selling off after results over the past year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e640b5081b9438191b11bb2e43b6b63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\">Whether the company beats earnings this quarter or not likely does not matter. The only thing that will matter is if the company provides the type of guidance the market has grown to expect from Apple. If investors get better-than-expected quarterly results and better-than-expected guidance, good things are likely to happen. Anything else will likely result in lower prices.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What If Apple Sinks Following Results?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat If Apple Sinks Following Results?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-23 10:19 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420608-options-traders-betting-apple-sinks-following-results><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple will report results on April 28.\nThe quarter is expected to be very strong.\nHowever, a lack of forward guidance may sink the equity.\n\nApple (AAPL) will provide fiscal second quarter ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420608-options-traders-betting-apple-sinks-following-results\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420608-options-traders-betting-apple-sinks-following-results","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1199011167","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple will report results on April 28.\nThe quarter is expected to be very strong.\nHowever, a lack of forward guidance may sink the equity.\n\nApple (AAPL) will provide fiscal second quarter results on April 28, and boy expectations are high. Analysts' consensus estimates forecast revenue to have climbed by 32.2% vs. last year to $77.1 billion, with earnings expected to have jumped by 54.3% to $0.98 per share.\nMuch of that growth is expected to come from the iPhone, with sales seen rising by 42.3% to $41.2 billion. A 17% jump follows that in services to $15.6 billion, and 24.1% rise in wearables and other products to $7.8 billion. To make it more interesting, those iPhone estimates have been creeping up, rising from around $39.6 billion at the end of January.\nThe big question, and certainly what has weighed the most on the stock in recent quarters, is Apple's willingness to provide guidance. Since the pandemic began, Apple has not provided guidance. It's the main reason why the stock sank despite better than expectedfirst quarter results. The fiscal third quarter revenue is seen rising by 15.4% to $68.8 billion, while earnings rise by 27.1% to $0.82 per share.\nPremium Valuation\nA lack of guidance is sure to weigh heavily on the stock, and investors will likely punish the shares if that should happen. The stock is not cheap currently, and investors are clearly giving a lot of credit and confidence in management's ability to steer through the coronavirus pandemic. Because of that and the company's balance sheet, investors have given this stock a premium valuation, trading for 28.5 times 2022 earnings estimates of $4.70 per share. That's nearly 50% higher than its historical PE of 17.1 over the past five years.\nThe stock also is trading with a premium one-year forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.4, double its 10-year average of 3.2. That average would be even lower, if not for the run-up since the winter of 2018. Before that time, the peak price-to-sales ratio had been 4.\nWhen investors and the market give a company this much of a premium, the market expects to get what it wants, and no matter how glorious results are for the second quarter, the absences of third guidance, to the detail level the market wants, could result in the stock selling off, again, like it did last quarter.\nApple, to its credit, has delivered better than expected earnings and revenue 12 quarters in a row. It would come as a big shock to the market if Apple missed estimates.\n\n(Apple Earnings Beats - Seeking Alpha)\nOptions Trades\nOptions traders are betting the company disappoints, and the stock sinks between now and expiration on June 18. Since the beginning of April, traders have been building up big positions for both the $135 puts and calls. Over that time, both options have seen their open interest levels rise by roughly 65,000 contracts each. The data shows most of the calls have been sold, and most of the puts have been bought. The calls have been sold for approximately $3.50 and $4.15. Meanwhile, the puts have been bought for around $10 and $11. This would suggest that the trader paid roughly $7 per contract and would need the stock to fall to approximately $128 or lower to start earning a profit on the trade, a drop of at least 4%.\nTechnicals\nIf the stock falls to $128, it will probably fall further, based on the technical chart. The stock is currently sitting on a key level of resistance at $130, and if that level of resistance breaks at $130, it likely will trigger a decline to $118, a drop of about 10%. The RSIalso issignaling weakness and lower prices. It has been trending lower since peaking in September.\nIt's possible to see the stock climb to around $138 ahead of earnings though that's likely where it would meet extreme resistance. The stock does have a history of moving higher into earnings and then selling off after results over the past year.\nWhether the company beats earnings this quarter or not likely does not matter. The only thing that will matter is if the company provides the type of guidance the market has grown to expect from Apple. If investors get better-than-expected quarterly results and better-than-expected guidance, good things are likely to happen. Anything else will likely result in lower prices.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376769825,"gmtCreate":1619149562567,"gmtModify":1704720416561,"author":{"id":"3577161765762514","authorId":"3577161765762514","name":"JJ11","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577161765762514","authorIdStr":"3577161765762514"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376769825","repostId":"1145865439","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":376769825,"gmtCreate":1619149562567,"gmtModify":1704720416561,"author":{"id":"3577161765762514","authorId":"3577161765762514","name":"JJ11","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577161765762514","authorIdStr":"3577161765762514"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376769825","repostId":"1145865439","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145865439","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619146694,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145865439?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 10:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel’s new CEO has another big problem to fix","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145865439","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Gelsinger says sharp drop in data-center chip sales is a temporary blip, but analysts wonder if riva","content":"<blockquote>\n Gelsinger says sharp drop in data-center chip sales is a temporary blip, but analysts wonder if rival AMD is gaining ground.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Intel Corp.’s new chief executive, Pat Gelsinger, has another urgent problem to deal with, in addition to restoring the chip giant’s manufacturing business to its former glory.</p>\n<p>In its earning report Thursday, Intel INTC, -1.77% said its highly profitable business of selling chips to data-center customers had its worst quarter in a year, with revenue dropping an unexpected 20%, which included a 14% drop in average selling prices. Overall, the company’s total revenue of $19.7 billion came in better than expected, even while it was down 1% year over year.</p>\n<p>But the surprise double-digit drop in data-center sales unsettled investors, and Intel shares slipped more than 2% in after-hours trading, at one point falling to $60.61 in the extended session.</p>\n<p>The state of the data-center business was the dominant topic on the earnings call Thursday afternoon, during which some analysts tried to glean if competitive pressure from rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, -3.12% was having an effect.</p>\n<p>Intel executives tried to bat away that notion, saying that over half of the drop in average selling prices was due to strong sales of lower-priced network system-on-a-chip products and other product-mix issues. In addition, Intel was seeing a very tough comparison to the first quarter of 2020, when revenue soared 23% overall and data-center revenue surged 34%. They also said many customers were digesting past purchases.</p>\n<p>But it is that area that was left mostly undiscussed, with analysts suspecting the sizeable drop in average selling price may be due to competition from AMD. Intel cited higher startup expenses for its newest manufacturing nodes, as it moves to 10-nanometer geometries its next generation.</p>\n<p>“Can you help us understand why you’re comfortable that this is digestion and not something more, like cloud guys going to more internal solutions or solutions away from Intel?” asked John Pitzer, a Credit Suisse analyst. “I know you have another hard compare year-over-year on Q2, but what gives you confidence that this is digestion and not something more?”</p>\n<p>Gelsinger noted that the company works very closely with its customers and the supply chain, and is building its forecasts based on data from these relationships.</p>\n<p>“We know what their inventory levels are. These are very intimate relationships,” Gelsinger said. “So I’d just say at that level, we’re confident when we speak that what they’re doing, and what we’re going to see in the future, and how they’re digesting and deploying the products that we delivered to them last year, are now ramping in.”</p>\n<p>Even so, not everyone is buying it. Patrick Moorhead, an analyst with Moor Insights, said in a brief note that he attributed the lower prices in the data-center group “to a combination to mix shift lower and competitive pressure. “</p>\n<p>With data center as such a big profit driver for Intel, investors are hoping that Gelsinger is right and that after a brief digestion period, those sales will come back. Next Tuesday, when AMD reports its earnings, should provide another data point. But it may be that Gelsinger not only has a manufacturing issue to work on and build up again, but an increasingly stronger opponent in AMD.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> Intel’s new CEO has another big problem to fix</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n Intel’s new CEO has another big problem to fix\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-23 10:58 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/intels-new-ceo-has-another-big-problem-to-fix-11619137489?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Gelsinger says sharp drop in data-center chip sales is a temporary blip, but analysts wonder if rival AMD is gaining ground.\n\nIntel Corp.’s new chief executive, Pat Gelsinger, has another urgent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/intels-new-ceo-has-another-big-problem-to-fix-11619137489?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/intels-new-ceo-has-another-big-problem-to-fix-11619137489?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1145865439","content_text":"Gelsinger says sharp drop in data-center chip sales is a temporary blip, but analysts wonder if rival AMD is gaining ground.\n\nIntel Corp.’s new chief executive, Pat Gelsinger, has another urgent problem to deal with, in addition to restoring the chip giant’s manufacturing business to its former glory.\nIn its earning report Thursday, Intel INTC, -1.77% said its highly profitable business of selling chips to data-center customers had its worst quarter in a year, with revenue dropping an unexpected 20%, which included a 14% drop in average selling prices. Overall, the company’s total revenue of $19.7 billion came in better than expected, even while it was down 1% year over year.\nBut the surprise double-digit drop in data-center sales unsettled investors, and Intel shares slipped more than 2% in after-hours trading, at one point falling to $60.61 in the extended session.\nThe state of the data-center business was the dominant topic on the earnings call Thursday afternoon, during which some analysts tried to glean if competitive pressure from rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, -3.12% was having an effect.\nIntel executives tried to bat away that notion, saying that over half of the drop in average selling prices was due to strong sales of lower-priced network system-on-a-chip products and other product-mix issues. In addition, Intel was seeing a very tough comparison to the first quarter of 2020, when revenue soared 23% overall and data-center revenue surged 34%. They also said many customers were digesting past purchases.\nBut it is that area that was left mostly undiscussed, with analysts suspecting the sizeable drop in average selling price may be due to competition from AMD. Intel cited higher startup expenses for its newest manufacturing nodes, as it moves to 10-nanometer geometries its next generation.\n“Can you help us understand why you’re comfortable that this is digestion and not something more, like cloud guys going to more internal solutions or solutions away from Intel?” asked John Pitzer, a Credit Suisse analyst. “I know you have another hard compare year-over-year on Q2, but what gives you confidence that this is digestion and not something more?”\nGelsinger noted that the company works very closely with its customers and the supply chain, and is building its forecasts based on data from these relationships.\n“We know what their inventory levels are. These are very intimate relationships,” Gelsinger said. “So I’d just say at that level, we’re confident when we speak that what they’re doing, and what we’re going to see in the future, and how they’re digesting and deploying the products that we delivered to them last year, are now ramping in.”\nEven so, not everyone is buying it. Patrick Moorhead, an analyst with Moor Insights, said in a brief note that he attributed the lower prices in the data-center group “to a combination to mix shift lower and competitive pressure. “\nWith data center as such a big profit driver for Intel, investors are hoping that Gelsinger is right and that after a brief digestion period, those sales will come back. Next Tuesday, when AMD reports its earnings, should provide another data point. But it may be that Gelsinger not only has a manufacturing issue to work on and build up again, but an increasingly stronger opponent in AMD.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376724566,"gmtCreate":1619150968255,"gmtModify":1704720440713,"author":{"id":"3577161765762514","authorId":"3577161765762514","name":"JJ11","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577161765762514","authorIdStr":"3577161765762514"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Norm","listText":"Norm","text":"Norm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376724566","repostId":"1199011167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199011167","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619144383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199011167?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 10:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What If Apple Sinks Following Results?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199011167","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple will report results on April 28.\nThe quarter is expected to be very strong.\nHowever, ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple will report results on April 28.</li>\n <li>The quarter is expected to be very strong.</li>\n <li>However, a lack of forward guidance may sink the equity.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Apple (AAPL) will provide fiscal second quarter results on April 28, and boy expectations are high. Analysts' consensus estimates forecast revenue to have climbed by 32.2% vs. last year to $77.1 billion, with earnings expected to have jumped by 54.3% to $0.98 per share.</p>\n<p>Much of that growth is expected to come from the iPhone, with sales seen rising by 42.3% to $41.2 billion. A 17% jump follows that in services to $15.6 billion, and 24.1% rise in wearables and other products to $7.8 billion. To make it more interesting, those iPhone estimates have been creeping up, rising from around $39.6 billion at the end of January.</p>\n<p>The big question, and certainly what has weighed the most on the stock in recent quarters, is Apple's willingness to provide guidance. Since the pandemic began, Apple has not provided guidance. It's the main reason why the stock sank despite better than expectedfirst quarter results. The fiscal third quarter revenue is seen rising by 15.4% to $68.8 billion, while earnings rise by 27.1% to $0.82 per share.</p>\n<p><b>Premium Valuation</b></p>\n<p>A lack of guidance is sure to weigh heavily on the stock, and investors will likely punish the shares if that should happen. The stock is not cheap currently, and investors are clearly giving a lot of credit and confidence in management's ability to steer through the coronavirus pandemic. Because of that and the company's balance sheet, investors have given this stock a premium valuation, trading for 28.5 times 2022 earnings estimates of $4.70 per share. That's nearly 50% higher than its historical PE of 17.1 over the past five years.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5648c30557ded937a07b41727b14fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\">The stock also is trading with a premium one-year forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.4, double its 10-year average of 3.2. That average would be even lower, if not for the run-up since the winter of 2018. Before that time, the peak price-to-sales ratio had been 4.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0608c62def162aa4091dbdb3aa93ed0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\">When investors and the market give a company this much of a premium, the market expects to get what it wants, and no matter how glorious results are for the second quarter, the absences of third guidance, to the detail level the market wants, could result in the stock selling off, again, like it did last quarter.</p>\n<p>Apple, to its credit, has delivered better than expected earnings and revenue 12 quarters in a row. It would come as a big shock to the market if Apple missed estimates.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd6853280db9e469470a507b235287c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"></p>\n<p><i>(Apple Earnings Beats - Seeking Alpha)</i></p>\n<p><b>Options Trades</b></p>\n<p>Options traders are betting the company disappoints, and the stock sinks between now and expiration on June 18. Since the beginning of April, traders have been building up big positions for both the $135 puts and calls. Over that time, both options have seen their open interest levels rise by roughly 65,000 contracts each. The data shows most of the calls have been sold, and most of the puts have been bought. The calls have been sold for approximately $3.50 and $4.15. Meanwhile, the puts have been bought for around $10 and $11. This would suggest that the trader paid roughly $7 per contract and would need the stock to fall to approximately $128 or lower to start earning a profit on the trade, a drop of at least 4%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/480f4ad744e1cdb2fad5bd1013a25ec9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\"><b>Technicals</b></p>\n<p>If the stock falls to $128, it will probably fall further, based on the technical chart. The stock is currently sitting on a key level of resistance at $130, and if that level of resistance breaks at $130, it likely will trigger a decline to $118, a drop of about 10%. The RSIalso issignaling weakness and lower prices. It has been trending lower since peaking in September.</p>\n<p>It's possible to see the stock climb to around $138 ahead of earnings though that's likely where it would meet extreme resistance. The stock does have a history of moving higher into earnings and then selling off after results over the past year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e640b5081b9438191b11bb2e43b6b63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\">Whether the company beats earnings this quarter or not likely does not matter. The only thing that will matter is if the company provides the type of guidance the market has grown to expect from Apple. If investors get better-than-expected quarterly results and better-than-expected guidance, good things are likely to happen. Anything else will likely result in lower prices.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What If Apple Sinks Following Results?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat If Apple Sinks Following Results?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-23 10:19 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420608-options-traders-betting-apple-sinks-following-results><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple will report results on April 28.\nThe quarter is expected to be very strong.\nHowever, a lack of forward guidance may sink the equity.\n\nApple (AAPL) will provide fiscal second quarter ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420608-options-traders-betting-apple-sinks-following-results\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420608-options-traders-betting-apple-sinks-following-results","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1199011167","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple will report results on April 28.\nThe quarter is expected to be very strong.\nHowever, a lack of forward guidance may sink the equity.\n\nApple (AAPL) will provide fiscal second quarter results on April 28, and boy expectations are high. Analysts' consensus estimates forecast revenue to have climbed by 32.2% vs. last year to $77.1 billion, with earnings expected to have jumped by 54.3% to $0.98 per share.\nMuch of that growth is expected to come from the iPhone, with sales seen rising by 42.3% to $41.2 billion. A 17% jump follows that in services to $15.6 billion, and 24.1% rise in wearables and other products to $7.8 billion. To make it more interesting, those iPhone estimates have been creeping up, rising from around $39.6 billion at the end of January.\nThe big question, and certainly what has weighed the most on the stock in recent quarters, is Apple's willingness to provide guidance. Since the pandemic began, Apple has not provided guidance. It's the main reason why the stock sank despite better than expectedfirst quarter results. The fiscal third quarter revenue is seen rising by 15.4% to $68.8 billion, while earnings rise by 27.1% to $0.82 per share.\nPremium Valuation\nA lack of guidance is sure to weigh heavily on the stock, and investors will likely punish the shares if that should happen. The stock is not cheap currently, and investors are clearly giving a lot of credit and confidence in management's ability to steer through the coronavirus pandemic. Because of that and the company's balance sheet, investors have given this stock a premium valuation, trading for 28.5 times 2022 earnings estimates of $4.70 per share. That's nearly 50% higher than its historical PE of 17.1 over the past five years.\nThe stock also is trading with a premium one-year forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.4, double its 10-year average of 3.2. That average would be even lower, if not for the run-up since the winter of 2018. Before that time, the peak price-to-sales ratio had been 4.\nWhen investors and the market give a company this much of a premium, the market expects to get what it wants, and no matter how glorious results are for the second quarter, the absences of third guidance, to the detail level the market wants, could result in the stock selling off, again, like it did last quarter.\nApple, to its credit, has delivered better than expected earnings and revenue 12 quarters in a row. It would come as a big shock to the market if Apple missed estimates.\n\n(Apple Earnings Beats - Seeking Alpha)\nOptions Trades\nOptions traders are betting the company disappoints, and the stock sinks between now and expiration on June 18. Since the beginning of April, traders have been building up big positions for both the $135 puts and calls. Over that time, both options have seen their open interest levels rise by roughly 65,000 contracts each. The data shows most of the calls have been sold, and most of the puts have been bought. The calls have been sold for approximately $3.50 and $4.15. Meanwhile, the puts have been bought for around $10 and $11. This would suggest that the trader paid roughly $7 per contract and would need the stock to fall to approximately $128 or lower to start earning a profit on the trade, a drop of at least 4%.\nTechnicals\nIf the stock falls to $128, it will probably fall further, based on the technical chart. The stock is currently sitting on a key level of resistance at $130, and if that level of resistance breaks at $130, it likely will trigger a decline to $118, a drop of about 10%. The RSIalso issignaling weakness and lower prices. It has been trending lower since peaking in September.\nIt's possible to see the stock climb to around $138 ahead of earnings though that's likely where it would meet extreme resistance. The stock does have a history of moving higher into earnings and then selling off after results over the past year.\nWhether the company beats earnings this quarter or not likely does not matter. The only thing that will matter is if the company provides the type of guidance the market has grown to expect from Apple. If investors get better-than-expected quarterly results and better-than-expected guidance, good things are likely to happen. Anything else will likely result in lower prices.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
