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2023-04-04

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2023-03-24

$小米集团-W(01810)$

2023-02-25

$英特尔(INTC)$ business shrinking....

2022-10-19

6

Market Overview | 8 consecutive bull stocks changed hands! Shipping stocks buck trend and surge

2022-09-13

6

The last inflation report before the Fed's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?

2022-09-13

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The last inflation report before the Fed's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?

2022-08-22

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2022-08-03

6

What is the origin of "demon stock" AMTD Digital? How big is the bubble?

2022-08-03

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What is the origin of "demon stock" AMTD Digital? How big is the bubble?

2022-07-26

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2022-07-26

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2022-07-04

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Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million

2022-07-04

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Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million

2022-06-23

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Why does the Fed dare not save U.S. stocks?

2022-06-16

6

The "Lehman crisis" in the currency circle is fermenting, and now it's the turn of hedge funds!

2022-06-06

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2022-06-06

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2022-06-06

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2022-05-13

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2022-05-13

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943484209","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957259675,"gmtCreate":1677308831298,"gmtModify":1677308834780,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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shrinking....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957259675","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983131948,"gmtCreate":1666174654785,"gmtModify":1676537718081,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983131948","repostId":"1141641724","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1141641724","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1666169142,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141641724?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-19 16:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Market Overview | 8 consecutive bull stocks changed hands! Shipping stocks buck trend and surge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141641724","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"恒科指大跌逾4%，科技股重挫；沪指震荡调整跌1.19%；美股指期货、欧洲股市、原油、黄金均走低；奈飞、阿斯麦、美联航绩后大涨>>>港股港股三大指数全天呈单边下跌行情，昨日反弹上涨的市场情绪再度陷入低迷","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Hengke Index fell more than 4%, and technology stocks fell sharply; The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19% after shock adjustment; U.S. stock index futures, European stock markets, crude oil, and gold all fell;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>, United Airlines surged after the results > > ><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The three major Hong Kong stock indexes showed a unilateral decline throughout the day, and the market sentiment that rebounded and rose yesterday once again fell into a downturn. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.38% and 403 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 4.19%, falling below the 3,200-point mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2694773a7c1d671f7fa8b16a222dbb92\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, large technology stocks fell across the board, dragging down the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>Down 5.55%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Etc. all fell; Home appliance stocks led the decline throughout the day. Gambling stocks, sporting goods, mobile game stocks, automobile stocks, photovoltaic stocks, catering stocks, and Chinese brokerage stocks all expanded their losses in late trading. New energy automobile stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>It fell more than 9% and hit a new low. On the other hand, water stocks and online education stocks bucked the trend and rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">New oriental online</a>The best performer if it rose more than 8%; Power stocks, port shipping stocks, and telecommunications stocks were active in the weakness. Today, the net inflow of southbound funds was 5.417 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the market turnover was 84.7 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, and the GEM index was relatively strong. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.86%. Northbound funds sold a net of 6.002 billion yuan throughout the day, net sales for three consecutive days, of which Shanghai Stock Connect sold a net of 4.515 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect sold a net of 1.488 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32883f80e36c15adabf2c7d9f6691398\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, port shipping stocks were strong throughout the day.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600026\">COSCO Shipping Energy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601008\">Lianyungang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600428\">COSCO SHIPPING</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600798\">Ningbo Shipping</a>Daily limit. Track stocks such as energy storage and lithium batteries were once active, but gradually fell back in the afternoon.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002245\">Azure lithium core</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002796\">Sega Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000049\">Desai Battery</a>Wait for the daily limit. On the downside, consumer stocks collectively adjusted, and aquaculture stocks led the decline. Overall, individual stocks fell more and rose less, with more than 3,700 individual stocks in the two cities falling. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 758.4 billion, a decrease of 35.4 billion from the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, ports, Internet e-commerce, education, integrated die-casting and other sectors were among the top gainers, while oil and gas, chicken raising, precious metals, pet economy and other sectors were among the top losers.</p><p>It is worth noting that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002093\">Guomai Technology</a>Today, we ushered in 8 consecutive boards, and there was an explosive change of hands. As of the close, the turnover exceeded 2.5 billion yuan, and the turnover rate exceeded 25%. The latest total market value of Guomai Technology is 10.4 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4398a3a4c02b4fbc320d636c80e9ed99\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The three major U.S. stock index futures continued to fall. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.29%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.17%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ed1e960f3ca0cc5ad74e87356277db\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Netflix soared more than 13% before the market, and the net increase of 2.41 million paid subscribers in the third quarter exceeded expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>It rose 6.4% before the market. Third-quarter revenue increased 10% year-on-year to 5.778 billion euros, exceeding expectations, and achieving a record net booking volume of 8.9 billion euros.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a>It rose 6.8% before the market. Revenue in the third quarter increased by 66.15% year-on-year to US $12.877 billion, and net profit nearly doubled compared with the same period last year.</p><p><b>European stocks</b></p><p>Major European indexes fell across the board, with Germany's DAX30 falling 0.41%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 0.59%, and France's CAC40 fell 0.33%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108c582b9efef82807b6b41b22f0842b\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell in the short term. As of press time, WTI crude oil was trading at US $81.89 per barrel, down 0.22%; Brent oil is now trading at $89.59 a barrel, down 0.49%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fcd29290758e89f4ac7cd049bf7491c\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcda1a4d514bf49d96232092b48ce4f0\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fluctuated lower, now down 0.65% at $1,645 an ounce.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb6b633b30da26822bb36294ed6a0f71\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market Overview | 8 consecutive bull stocks changed hands! Shipping stocks buck trend and surge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket Overview | 8 consecutive bull stocks changed hands! Shipping stocks buck trend and surge\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-19 16:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Hengke Index fell more than 4%, and technology stocks fell sharply; The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19% after shock adjustment; U.S. stock index futures, European stock markets, crude oil, and gold all fell;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>, United Airlines surged after the results > > ><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The three major Hong Kong stock indexes showed a unilateral decline throughout the day, and the market sentiment that rebounded and rose yesterday once again fell into a downturn. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.38% and 403 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 4.19%, falling below the 3,200-point mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2694773a7c1d671f7fa8b16a222dbb92\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, large technology stocks fell across the board, dragging down the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>Down 5.55%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Etc. all fell; Home appliance stocks led the decline throughout the day. Gambling stocks, sporting goods, mobile game stocks, automobile stocks, photovoltaic stocks, catering stocks, and Chinese brokerage stocks all expanded their losses in late trading. New energy automobile stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>It fell more than 9% and hit a new low. On the other hand, water stocks and online education stocks bucked the trend and rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">New oriental online</a>The best performer if it rose more than 8%; Power stocks, port shipping stocks, and telecommunications stocks were active in the weakness. Today, the net inflow of southbound funds was 5.417 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the market turnover was 84.7 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, and the GEM index was relatively strong. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.86%. Northbound funds sold a net of 6.002 billion yuan throughout the day, net sales for three consecutive days, of which Shanghai Stock Connect sold a net of 4.515 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect sold a net of 1.488 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32883f80e36c15adabf2c7d9f6691398\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, port shipping stocks were strong throughout the day.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600026\">COSCO Shipping Energy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601008\">Lianyungang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600428\">COSCO SHIPPING</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600798\">Ningbo Shipping</a>Daily limit. Track stocks such as energy storage and lithium batteries were once active, but gradually fell back in the afternoon.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002245\">Azure lithium core</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002796\">Sega Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000049\">Desai Battery</a>Wait for the daily limit. On the downside, consumer stocks collectively adjusted, and aquaculture stocks led the decline. Overall, individual stocks fell more and rose less, with more than 3,700 individual stocks in the two cities falling. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 758.4 billion, a decrease of 35.4 billion from the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, ports, Internet e-commerce, education, integrated die-casting and other sectors were among the top gainers, while oil and gas, chicken raising, precious metals, pet economy and other sectors were among the top losers.</p><p>It is worth noting that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002093\">Guomai Technology</a>Today, we ushered in 8 consecutive boards, and there was an explosive change of hands. As of the close, the turnover exceeded 2.5 billion yuan, and the turnover rate exceeded 25%. The latest total market value of Guomai Technology is 10.4 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4398a3a4c02b4fbc320d636c80e9ed99\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The three major U.S. stock index futures continued to fall. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.29%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.17%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ed1e960f3ca0cc5ad74e87356277db\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Netflix soared more than 13% before the market, and the net increase of 2.41 million paid subscribers in the third quarter exceeded expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>It rose 6.4% before the market. Third-quarter revenue increased 10% year-on-year to 5.778 billion euros, exceeding expectations, and achieving a record net booking volume of 8.9 billion euros.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a>It rose 6.8% before the market. Revenue in the third quarter increased by 66.15% year-on-year to US $12.877 billion, and net profit nearly doubled compared with the same period last year.</p><p><b>European stocks</b></p><p>Major European indexes fell across the board, with Germany's DAX30 falling 0.41%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 0.59%, and France's CAC40 fell 0.33%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108c582b9efef82807b6b41b22f0842b\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell in the short term. As of press time, WTI crude oil was trading at US $81.89 per barrel, down 0.22%; Brent oil is now trading at $89.59 a barrel, down 0.49%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fcd29290758e89f4ac7cd049bf7491c\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcda1a4d514bf49d96232092b48ce4f0\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fluctuated lower, now down 0.65% at $1,645 an ounce.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb6b633b30da26822bb36294ed6a0f71\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141641724","content_text":"恒科指大跌逾4%，科技股重挫；沪指震荡调整跌1.19%；美股指期货、欧洲股市、原油、黄金均走低；奈飞、阿斯麦、美联航绩后大涨>>>港股港股三大指数全天呈单边下跌行情，昨日反弹上涨的市场情绪再度陷入低迷。截止收盘，恒指跌2.38%下挫403点，恒生科技指数跌4.19%，失守3200点关口。盘面上，大型科技股全线下跌拖累大市下挫，快手-W跌超7%，美团-W跌超6%，京东集团-SW跌5.55%，阿里巴巴-SW跌超5%，腾讯控股、百度集团-SW等均下跌；家电股全天领跌，濠赌股、体育用品、手游股、汽车股、光伏股、餐饮股、中资券商股尾盘跌幅均扩大，新能源汽车股小鹏汽车-W大跌超9%再创新低。另一方面，水务股、在线教育股逆势走高，新东方在线涨超8%表现最佳；电力股、港口航运股、电信股在弱势中表现活跃。今日南下资金净流入54.17亿港元，大市成交额为847亿港元。A股大盘全天震荡调整，创业板指相对偏强。截至收盘，沪指跌1.19%，深成指跌1.43%，创业板指跌0.86%。北向资金全天净卖出60.02亿元，连续3日净卖出，其中沪股通净卖出45.15亿元，深股通净卖出14.88亿元。盘面上，港口航运股全天强势，中远海能、连云港、中远海特、宁波海运涨停。储能、锂电等赛道股一度活跃，但午后逐步回落，蔚蓝锂芯、世嘉科技、德赛电池等涨停。下跌方面，消费股集体调整，养殖股领跌。总体上个股跌多涨少，两市超3700只个股下跌。沪深两市今日成交额7584亿，较上个交易日缩量354亿。板块方面，港口、互联网电商、教育、一体化压铸等板块涨幅居前，油气、养鸡、贵金属、宠物经济等板块跌幅居前。值得注意的是，国脉科技今日迎来8连板，并出现爆量换手，截至收盘，成交额超25亿元，换手率超25%。国脉科技最新总市值为104亿元。美股美股三大股指期货持续下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.29%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.17%，标普500指数期货跌0.26%。奈飞盘前大涨超13%，第三季度付费订阅用户净增241万超预期。阿斯麦盘前涨6.4%，第三季度营收同比增长10%至57.78亿欧元超预期，实现创纪录的89亿欧元的净预订量。联合大陆航空盘前涨6.8%，第三季度营收同比增长66.15%至128.77亿美元，净利润较去年同期接近翻倍。欧股欧洲主要指数全线下跌，德国DAX30跌0.41%，英国富时100跌0.59%，法国CAC40跌0.33%。原油原油期货短线走低，截止发稿，WTI原油报81.89美元/桶，跌0.22%；布油现报89.59美元/桶，跌0.49%。黄金黄金期货震荡走低，现跌0.65%，报1645美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935802178,"gmtCreate":1663058365094,"gmtModify":1676537193549,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935802178","repostId":"1177421171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177421171","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663038466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177421171?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-13 11:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The last inflation report before the Fed's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177421171","media":"第一财经","summary":"美联储“群鹰荟萃”，激进加息何时放松？8月中旬以来，美联储一直在向外界传递着强硬的政策信号，虽然加息可能带来冲击，但对抗通胀的态度没有改变。对于政策制定者而言，加强与外界沟通有利于避免市场冲击的发生。","content":"<p><div>The Federal Reserve is \"gathering eagles\", when will the radical rate hike be relaxed? Since mid-August, the Federal Reserve has been sending tough policy signals to the outside world. Although rate hike may have an impact, its attitude towards fighting inflation has not changed. For policy makers, strengthening communication with the outside world is conducive to avoiding market shocks. Therefore, U.S. stocks have stabilized since the middle of last week, and policy expectations have been further digested. Federal Reserve interest rate fund futures show that there is little suspense in the September rate hike of 75 basis points. With the release of the latest inflation data in the United States on the 13th local time, the focus will gradually turn to the game of how the Federal Reserve will slow down policy tightening in the future....</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The last inflation report before the Fed's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe last inflation report before the Fed's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-13 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The Federal Reserve is \"gathering eagles\", when will the radical rate hike be relaxed? Since mid-August, the Federal Reserve has been sending tough policy signals to the outside world. Although rate hike may have an impact, its attitude towards fighting inflation has not changed. For policy makers, strengthening communication with the outside world is conducive to avoiding market shocks. Therefore, U.S. stocks have stabilized since the middle of last week, and policy expectations have been further digested. Federal Reserve interest rate fund futures show that there is little suspense in the September rate hike of 75 basis points. With the release of the latest inflation data in the United States on the 13th local time, the focus will gradually turn to the game of how the Federal Reserve will slow down policy tightening in the future....</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177421171","content_text":"美联储“群鹰荟萃”，激进加息何时放松？8月中旬以来，美联储一直在向外界传递着强硬的政策信号，虽然加息可能带来冲击，但对抗通胀的态度没有改变。对于政策制定者而言，加强与外界沟通有利于避免市场冲击的发生。因此，美股从上周中期开始企稳，政策预期进一步被消化，美联储利率基金期货显示，9月加息75基点几无悬念。随着当地时间13日美国最新通胀数据的公布，焦点将逐步转向未来美联储如何放缓政策收紧的博弈上来。美联储政策效果初现美联储主席鲍威尔上周重申了近期的强硬立场。“历史强烈警告不要过早放松政策，”他在卡托研究所第40届年度货币会议上表示。“我们将继续努力控制通胀，直到工作完成。”他的评论与美联储二号人物、副主席布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）在纽约银行政策会议上的讲话相呼应。当时后者表示，要防范家庭和企业可能开始预期通胀在长期内保持在2%以上的风险。”随着美联储进入缄默期，市场对于本月政策前景基本达成了共识。包括高盛、美国银行和野村证券在内的多家机构将9月会议的预测从50基点上调至75基点。芝商所CME利率观察工具显示，一周后美联储历史性的75基点“三连加”概率已经升至了92%。美国汽油价格较6月高位回落近26%（来源：美国汽车协会AAA）如今近40年来最激进的加息周期正在产生效果。自6月消费者物价指数（CPI）突破9%以后，通胀见顶迹象愈加明显。资产管理机构BK Asset Management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格（Boris Schlossberg）在接受第一财经采访时表示，对于物价而言，能源价格的变动影响最大。美国汽车协会（AAA）数据显示，汽油平均价格已超过80天连续回落，夏季驾驶季结束对供需关系的影响有望持续释放。与此同时，美元强势对其他大宗商品的冲击也缓解终端产品的价格压力。供应链逐步恢复、需求降温下的经济放缓正在使原本紧张的消费供需环境得到缓解。最新美国采购经理人（PMI）调查显示，制造商支付价格指数降至2020年6月以来的最低水平，而服务业支付价格价格则刷新2021年1月以来新低。美国供应管理研究所（Institute for Supply Management）服务业调查委员会主席尼维斯（Anthony Nieves）表示，受访者称近期供应链、物流成本都有所改善。美国8月ISM制造业支付指数降至近27个月低位通胀预期正在逐步降温。密歇根大学消费者调查显示，8月1年期通胀预期从此前的5.2%降至4.8%，创年内新低，同时5年期通胀预期回落到2.9%，处于近一年的区间下端。与此同时，作为重要物价前景指标，美债市场一年期盈亏平衡通胀率已经降至2%以下，这也是近两年来首次低于这一水平。瑞士信贷首席美国股市策略师兼量化研究负责人戈卢布（Jonathan Golub）认为，这是通胀预期崩溃的最新迹象 ，“美联储并不是在试图控制下一次通胀指标，而是在试图控制未来12至18个月的通胀。如果预期通胀正在下降，在其他条件不变的情况下，这可能意味着政策不必过度收紧。”加息节奏何时调整从联邦基金利率期货报价看，在9月预期加息75基点后，年内剩余两次会议继续加息至少100基点的概率同样达到30%，但可能在明年3月后暂停本轮紧缩周期。这显示出，投资者对美联储年内继续鹰派立场的担忧依然存在，而随着利率达到或超过限制水平，货币政策有望迎来新窗口期。施罗斯伯格告诉第一财经，油价有助于抑制短期通胀预期，但还有其他障碍可能让美联储无法放松警惕。例如，住房、教育、医疗、交通等“核心”通胀因素的成本短期内更难控制。从美联储官员的表态看，他们似乎认为通胀降温的速度并不像预想的那样顺利。富国银行指出，美联储的通胀斗争日趋复杂化。食品、燃料价格回落的同时，粘性通胀（如公寓租金）的存在意味着未来几个月通胀道路将“崎岖不平”。该行预计，CPI将在2022年底回落到7%以下，然后在明年年底降至3.5%。这仍将远高于美联储2%的目标。当地时间13日美国公布的通胀数据有望成为美联储下一步行动的重要基准点。目前市场预期8月CPI同比增速将回落至8%，环比月率将回落0.1个百分点，为2020年5月疫情初期以来首次，不过核心CPI月率将小幅反弹。T.Rowe Price首席美国经济学家乌鲁奇（Blerina Uruci）写道：“由于基数效应，在未来两份报告中，年度核心通胀可能会加快，这将成为美联储不安的因素。他们将更加关注动能，并关注未来三个月和六个月的增速变化。同时，美联储对公众和国会的看法也很敏感，有理由保持鹰派的立场。”联合信贷银行（UniCredit Bank）认为，最新通胀数据将喜忧参半，总体上是中性的。美联储将继续观察未来的数据表现，作为政策决定的参考依据。BMO Capital Market策略师林根（Ian Lyngen）则写道，在8月CPI为75基点定价时，市场将思考，美联储将如何调整未来加息的节奏。值得注意的是，货币政策对经济的影响已经引起了美联储内部的广泛关注。美国8月PMI跌破荣枯线，房地产市场降温迹象愈发明显。鲍威尔上月在杰克逊霍尔演讲中表示，加息可能会造成“痛苦”和“持续低于趋势的增长期”。美国财长耶伦上周日表示，（经济衰退）是一个令人担忧的问题，“美联储需要高超的技能，也需要一些运气，才能实现我们有时所说的软着陆，即在保持劳动力市场强劲的同时降低通胀。”因此，外界将密切关注接下来美联储可能出现的任何政策立场变化信号。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）此前在接受第一财经记者时表示，美国个人储蓄率已经降至5%，这是2009年以来的最低水平。虽然消费者支出表现出韧性，但选择变得更为谨慎。如今经济放缓对就业市场的冲击正在显现，他预计劳动力需求和经济环境疲软将转化为2023年消费势头放缓，进而威胁软着陆的目标。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IVV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935802309,"gmtCreate":1663058357801,"gmtModify":1676537193415,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935802309","repostId":"1177421171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177421171","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663038466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177421171?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-13 11:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The last inflation report before the Fed's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177421171","media":"第一财经","summary":"美联储“群鹰荟萃”，激进加息何时放松？8月中旬以来，美联储一直在向外界传递着强硬的政策信号，虽然加息可能带来冲击，但对抗通胀的态度没有改变。对于政策制定者而言，加强与外界沟通有利于避免市场冲击的发生。","content":"<p><div>The Federal Reserve is \"gathering eagles\", when will the radical rate hike be relaxed? Since mid-August, the Federal Reserve has been sending tough policy signals to the outside world. Although rate hike may have an impact, its attitude towards fighting inflation has not changed. For policy makers, strengthening communication with the outside world is conducive to avoiding market shocks. Therefore, U.S. stocks have stabilized since the middle of last week, and policy expectations have been further digested. Federal Reserve interest rate fund futures show that there is little suspense in the September rate hike of 75 basis points. With the release of the latest inflation data in the United States on the 13th local time, the focus will gradually turn to the game of how the Federal Reserve will slow down policy tightening in the future....</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The last inflation report before the Fed's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe last inflation report before the Fed's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-13 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The Federal Reserve is \"gathering eagles\", when will the radical rate hike be relaxed? Since mid-August, the Federal Reserve has been sending tough policy signals to the outside world. Although rate hike may have an impact, its attitude towards fighting inflation has not changed. For policy makers, strengthening communication with the outside world is conducive to avoiding market shocks. Therefore, U.S. stocks have stabilized since the middle of last week, and policy expectations have been further digested. Federal Reserve interest rate fund futures show that there is little suspense in the September rate hike of 75 basis points. With the release of the latest inflation data in the United States on the 13th local time, the focus will gradually turn to the game of how the Federal Reserve will slow down policy tightening in the future....</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177421171","content_text":"美联储“群鹰荟萃”，激进加息何时放松？8月中旬以来，美联储一直在向外界传递着强硬的政策信号，虽然加息可能带来冲击，但对抗通胀的态度没有改变。对于政策制定者而言，加强与外界沟通有利于避免市场冲击的发生。因此，美股从上周中期开始企稳，政策预期进一步被消化，美联储利率基金期货显示，9月加息75基点几无悬念。随着当地时间13日美国最新通胀数据的公布，焦点将逐步转向未来美联储如何放缓政策收紧的博弈上来。美联储政策效果初现美联储主席鲍威尔上周重申了近期的强硬立场。“历史强烈警告不要过早放松政策，”他在卡托研究所第40届年度货币会议上表示。“我们将继续努力控制通胀，直到工作完成。”他的评论与美联储二号人物、副主席布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）在纽约银行政策会议上的讲话相呼应。当时后者表示，要防范家庭和企业可能开始预期通胀在长期内保持在2%以上的风险。”随着美联储进入缄默期，市场对于本月政策前景基本达成了共识。包括高盛、美国银行和野村证券在内的多家机构将9月会议的预测从50基点上调至75基点。芝商所CME利率观察工具显示，一周后美联储历史性的75基点“三连加”概率已经升至了92%。美国汽油价格较6月高位回落近26%（来源：美国汽车协会AAA）如今近40年来最激进的加息周期正在产生效果。自6月消费者物价指数（CPI）突破9%以后，通胀见顶迹象愈加明显。资产管理机构BK Asset Management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格（Boris Schlossberg）在接受第一财经采访时表示，对于物价而言，能源价格的变动影响最大。美国汽车协会（AAA）数据显示，汽油平均价格已超过80天连续回落，夏季驾驶季结束对供需关系的影响有望持续释放。与此同时，美元强势对其他大宗商品的冲击也缓解终端产品的价格压力。供应链逐步恢复、需求降温下的经济放缓正在使原本紧张的消费供需环境得到缓解。最新美国采购经理人（PMI）调查显示，制造商支付价格指数降至2020年6月以来的最低水平，而服务业支付价格价格则刷新2021年1月以来新低。美国供应管理研究所（Institute for Supply Management）服务业调查委员会主席尼维斯（Anthony Nieves）表示，受访者称近期供应链、物流成本都有所改善。美国8月ISM制造业支付指数降至近27个月低位通胀预期正在逐步降温。密歇根大学消费者调查显示，8月1年期通胀预期从此前的5.2%降至4.8%，创年内新低，同时5年期通胀预期回落到2.9%，处于近一年的区间下端。与此同时，作为重要物价前景指标，美债市场一年期盈亏平衡通胀率已经降至2%以下，这也是近两年来首次低于这一水平。瑞士信贷首席美国股市策略师兼量化研究负责人戈卢布（Jonathan Golub）认为，这是通胀预期崩溃的最新迹象 ，“美联储并不是在试图控制下一次通胀指标，而是在试图控制未来12至18个月的通胀。如果预期通胀正在下降，在其他条件不变的情况下，这可能意味着政策不必过度收紧。”加息节奏何时调整从联邦基金利率期货报价看，在9月预期加息75基点后，年内剩余两次会议继续加息至少100基点的概率同样达到30%，但可能在明年3月后暂停本轮紧缩周期。这显示出，投资者对美联储年内继续鹰派立场的担忧依然存在，而随着利率达到或超过限制水平，货币政策有望迎来新窗口期。施罗斯伯格告诉第一财经，油价有助于抑制短期通胀预期，但还有其他障碍可能让美联储无法放松警惕。例如，住房、教育、医疗、交通等“核心”通胀因素的成本短期内更难控制。从美联储官员的表态看，他们似乎认为通胀降温的速度并不像预想的那样顺利。富国银行指出，美联储的通胀斗争日趋复杂化。食品、燃料价格回落的同时，粘性通胀（如公寓租金）的存在意味着未来几个月通胀道路将“崎岖不平”。该行预计，CPI将在2022年底回落到7%以下，然后在明年年底降至3.5%。这仍将远高于美联储2%的目标。当地时间13日美国公布的通胀数据有望成为美联储下一步行动的重要基准点。目前市场预期8月CPI同比增速将回落至8%，环比月率将回落0.1个百分点，为2020年5月疫情初期以来首次，不过核心CPI月率将小幅反弹。T.Rowe Price首席美国经济学家乌鲁奇（Blerina Uruci）写道：“由于基数效应，在未来两份报告中，年度核心通胀可能会加快，这将成为美联储不安的因素。他们将更加关注动能，并关注未来三个月和六个月的增速变化。同时，美联储对公众和国会的看法也很敏感，有理由保持鹰派的立场。”联合信贷银行（UniCredit Bank）认为，最新通胀数据将喜忧参半，总体上是中性的。美联储将继续观察未来的数据表现，作为政策决定的参考依据。BMO Capital Market策略师林根（Ian Lyngen）则写道，在8月CPI为75基点定价时，市场将思考，美联储将如何调整未来加息的节奏。值得注意的是，货币政策对经济的影响已经引起了美联储内部的广泛关注。美国8月PMI跌破荣枯线，房地产市场降温迹象愈发明显。鲍威尔上月在杰克逊霍尔演讲中表示，加息可能会造成“痛苦”和“持续低于趋势的增长期”。美国财长耶伦上周日表示，（经济衰退）是一个令人担忧的问题，“美联储需要高超的技能，也需要一些运气，才能实现我们有时所说的软着陆，即在保持劳动力市场强劲的同时降低通胀。”因此，外界将密切关注接下来美联储可能出现的任何政策立场变化信号。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）此前在接受第一财经记者时表示，美国个人储蓄率已经降至5%，这是2009年以来的最低水平。虽然消费者支出表现出韧性，但选择变得更为谨慎。如今经济放缓对就业市场的冲击正在显现，他预计劳动力需求和经济环境疲软将转化为2023年消费势头放缓，进而威胁软着陆的目标。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IVV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996871968,"gmtCreate":1661152062656,"gmtModify":1676536462910,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996871968","repostId":"1141625467","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906121703,"gmtCreate":1659499466404,"gmtModify":1705981045032,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906121703","repostId":"2256670674","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2256670674","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659488233,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2256670674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-03 08:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is the origin of \"demon stock\" AMTD Digital? How big is the bubble?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2256670674","media":"大摩财经","summary":"一家少有人注意的中小型中概股，在华尔街市场掀起一股“妖风”：上市半个月，股价上涨215倍，市值突破3100亿美元。香港商人蔡志坚控制的尚乘数科于7月14日登陆美股，发行价7.8美元，绿鞋后募资1.43","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A small and medium-sized Chinese concept stock that few people noticed set off a \"demon wind\" in the Wall Street market: half a month after its listing, its stock price rose 215 times, and its market value exceeded US $310 billion.</p><p>Controlled by Hong Kong businessman Tsai Zhijian<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>It landed on the U.S. stock market on July 14, with an issue price of US $7.8, and raised US $143.5 million after Green Shoes. It is the largest IPO project of Chinese concept stocks in the United States during the year.</p><p>After listing, AMTD Digital unexpectedly went out of a strong rising market, with an increase of more than 100% for several consecutive trading days. The closing price on August 1 was US $742, an increase of 94 times compared to the issue price. On August 2, AMTD Digital's closing price was US $1,679, and its market value exceeded US $310 billion. The leading Chinese concept company listed in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The market value that day was approximately US $240 billion.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that AMTD Digital has a total share capital of 74.01 million shares, but only 8.37 million shares are outstanding, accounting for about 11.3%. After listing, the daily trading volume is only a few hundred thousand shares.</b></p><p><b>The most demonic \"demon stock\" of the year</b></p><p>AMTD Digital is a digital finance company under AMTD Group. AMTD Group was first founded in 2003 by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa, and introduced new shareholders in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>After the Asia Private Equity Investment Fund (MSPE), the Lee family no longer participates in its daily management and operation. Cai Zhijian, a Hong Kong businessman with investment banking background, became the actual controller of AMTD Group.</p><p>According to public information, AMTD Group develops its business layout around the IDEA strategy, in which \"I\" stands for investment banking and traditional finance, \"D\" refers to the digital finance sector (AMTD Digital), \"E\" refers to the education side, and \"A\" refers to real estate and hotels.</p><p>In recent years, AMTD Group has continuously split its business segments and listed them, among which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMTD\">AMTD International</a>Listed on the New York Stock Exchange in August 2019, and in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">Singapore Exchange</a>Secondary listing, it is the first listed company in Singapore with different rights for the same shares.</p><p>AMTD Digital was established in 2019 and was acquired by AMTD International for US $1.2 billion in early 2022. After the acquisition is completed, AMTD International owns 97.1% of AMTD Digital, and the former also changed its stock abbreviation to AMTD IDEA Group.</p><p><b>As of the end of 2021, AMTD Group holds 50.6% of AMTD International, and Infinity Power Investments Limited, wholly owned by Tsai Zhijian, holds 32.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00355\">Century City International</a>Holding 5.8% of the shares. According to the prospectus, Infinity Power Investments Limited is the largest single shareholder of AMTD International. The equity of AMTD Group has not been disclosed. According to the content of the prospectus, it can only be known that its board members include Cai Zhijian.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9330f70732bcf7f381d1ac52029f9d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>It is worth mentioning that the stock price of AMTD IDEA Group (formerly AMTD International) rose sharply on August 2, hitting an all-time high of US $12.89 during the session. As of 23:00 on August 2, AMTD IDEA Group rose by about 300%, the latest market value is around US $3.1 billion.</p><p>Cai Zhijian, 44, once worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Waiting for employment in the company. From 2014 to 2015, when Cai Zhijian worked at UBS, two projects he participated in were investigated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission due to conflicts of interest and information disclosure issues. In January 2022, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission issued a \"Notice of Decision\" to Cai Zhijian, ruling that Cai Zhijian had two illegal acts: disclosure, fair treatment, and conflict of interest, and made a penalty decision to ban him from business for two years. Cai Zhijian then filed an application for review and filed an application for closed-door hearing.</p><p>However, Cai Zhijian's application for a closed-door hearing has not been passed. The case is currently pending trial and the injunction has not yet taken effect. The formal hearing will be held in public from December 12 to 16, 2022.</p><p>In 2019, Cai Zhijian was debt collected by CMIG and accused of financial fraud. Since then, Cai Zhijian's whereabouts have tended to be low-key. Caixin quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Cai Zhijian was suspected of leaving Hong Kong this year to avoid debts and was in Singapore from March to April 2022.</p><p><b>How big is the bubble?</b></p><p>After the market closed on August 1, AMTD Digital's rolling P/E has reached 5,992 times. Can AMTD Digital's fundamentals support such a valuation?</p><p>In contrast, the average P/E of the S&P 500 Index is less than 20 times, and the U.S. financial giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>P/E is less than 9 times, and Morgan Stanley P/E is 10.7 times.</p><p>Compared with international giants, AMTD Digital is overvalued by more than a star. From fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2021 (as of April 30 of that year), AMTD Digital's revenue was HK $15 million, HK $167.5 million and HK $195.8 million respectively; Profit for the same period (including changes in fair value of financial assets) was HK $22 million, HK $158 million and HK $172 million, respectively. In the ten months from May 2021 to the end of February 2021, AMTD Digital's revenue was HK $168 million and its net profit was HK $187 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and 65.5% respectively.</p><p>AMTD Digital mainly has two business lines, namely digital financial services and cobweb ecosystem solutions. Among them, digital financial services mainly provide customers with insurance and digital banking services. AMTD Digital has repeatedly emphasized that the \"scarcest digital financial license in Asia\" actually implements only the insurance brokerage license, which can conduct insurance brokerage business in Singapore and Hong Kong. The remaining financial assets and licenses still need to be approved by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Another major business line, the cobweb ecosystem solution, is to provide paid members with exclusive access to the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem and its famous corporate members, outstanding corporate executives and partners. At the same time, the business provides support in relevant professional fields through cooperation with industry leaders and academic institutions. To sort it out briefly, this business doesn't seem to be much different from ordinary investment banking think tanks.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the growth rate of AMTD Digital's two major businesses has slowed down significantly. From fiscal year 2019 to the first ten months of fiscal year 2022, the revenue of digital financial services business was HK $8.671 million, HK $9.869 million, HK $11.721 million and HK $10.088 million respectively. During the same period, profits were HK $1.863 million, HK $4.765 million, HK $1.084 million and HK $1.089 million.<b>In the first ten months of fiscal year 2022, the revenue and profit of the digital financial services business both experienced a year-on-year decline, of which the profit decline reached 18%, far greater than the 2.74% decline in revenue.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca72e2d599028c697449c8c68834fa9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In the first ten months of fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2022, AMTD Digital's cobweb ecosystem solution business revenue was HK $5.88 million, HK $158 million, HK $184 million and HK $157 million, respectively, and its profit was HK $1.95 million., 140 million Hong Kong dollars, 144 million Hong Kong dollars and 117 million Hong Kong dollars.<b>Although this part of the business has maintained revenue growth in the ten months of fiscal year 2022, it has fallen into a situation of increasing revenue but not increasing profits. The current profit fell by 2.5% year-on-year.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the origin of \"demon stock\" AMTD Digital? How big is the bubble?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the origin of \"demon stock\" AMTD Digital? How big is the bubble?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">大摩财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-03 08:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A small and medium-sized Chinese concept stock that few people noticed set off a \"demon wind\" in the Wall Street market: half a month after its listing, its stock price rose 215 times, and its market value exceeded US $310 billion.</p><p>Controlled by Hong Kong businessman Tsai Zhijian<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>It landed on the U.S. stock market on July 14, with an issue price of US $7.8, and raised US $143.5 million after Green Shoes. It is the largest IPO project of Chinese concept stocks in the United States during the year.</p><p>After listing, AMTD Digital unexpectedly went out of a strong rising market, with an increase of more than 100% for several consecutive trading days. The closing price on August 1 was US $742, an increase of 94 times compared to the issue price. On August 2, AMTD Digital's closing price was US $1,679, and its market value exceeded US $310 billion. The leading Chinese concept company listed in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The market value that day was approximately US $240 billion.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that AMTD Digital has a total share capital of 74.01 million shares, but only 8.37 million shares are outstanding, accounting for about 11.3%. After listing, the daily trading volume is only a few hundred thousand shares.</b></p><p><b>The most demonic \"demon stock\" of the year</b></p><p>AMTD Digital is a digital finance company under AMTD Group. AMTD Group was first founded in 2003 by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa, and introduced new shareholders in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>After the Asia Private Equity Investment Fund (MSPE), the Lee family no longer participates in its daily management and operation. Cai Zhijian, a Hong Kong businessman with investment banking background, became the actual controller of AMTD Group.</p><p>According to public information, AMTD Group develops its business layout around the IDEA strategy, in which \"I\" stands for investment banking and traditional finance, \"D\" refers to the digital finance sector (AMTD Digital), \"E\" refers to the education side, and \"A\" refers to real estate and hotels.</p><p>In recent years, AMTD Group has continuously split its business segments and listed them, among which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMTD\">AMTD International</a>Listed on the New York Stock Exchange in August 2019, and in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">Singapore Exchange</a>Secondary listing, it is the first listed company in Singapore with different rights for the same shares.</p><p>AMTD Digital was established in 2019 and was acquired by AMTD International for US $1.2 billion in early 2022. After the acquisition is completed, AMTD International owns 97.1% of AMTD Digital, and the former also changed its stock abbreviation to AMTD IDEA Group.</p><p><b>As of the end of 2021, AMTD Group holds 50.6% of AMTD International, and Infinity Power Investments Limited, wholly owned by Tsai Zhijian, holds 32.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00355\">Century City International</a>Holding 5.8% of the shares. According to the prospectus, Infinity Power Investments Limited is the largest single shareholder of AMTD International. The equity of AMTD Group has not been disclosed. According to the content of the prospectus, it can only be known that its board members include Cai Zhijian.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9330f70732bcf7f381d1ac52029f9d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>It is worth mentioning that the stock price of AMTD IDEA Group (formerly AMTD International) rose sharply on August 2, hitting an all-time high of US $12.89 during the session. As of 23:00 on August 2, AMTD IDEA Group rose by about 300%, the latest market value is around US $3.1 billion.</p><p>Cai Zhijian, 44, once worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Waiting for employment in the company. From 2014 to 2015, when Cai Zhijian worked at UBS, two projects he participated in were investigated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission due to conflicts of interest and information disclosure issues. In January 2022, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission issued a \"Notice of Decision\" to Cai Zhijian, ruling that Cai Zhijian had two illegal acts: disclosure, fair treatment, and conflict of interest, and made a penalty decision to ban him from business for two years. Cai Zhijian then filed an application for review and filed an application for closed-door hearing.</p><p>However, Cai Zhijian's application for a closed-door hearing has not been passed. The case is currently pending trial and the injunction has not yet taken effect. The formal hearing will be held in public from December 12 to 16, 2022.</p><p>In 2019, Cai Zhijian was debt collected by CMIG and accused of financial fraud. Since then, Cai Zhijian's whereabouts have tended to be low-key. Caixin quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Cai Zhijian was suspected of leaving Hong Kong this year to avoid debts and was in Singapore from March to April 2022.</p><p><b>How big is the bubble?</b></p><p>After the market closed on August 1, AMTD Digital's rolling P/E has reached 5,992 times. Can AMTD Digital's fundamentals support such a valuation?</p><p>In contrast, the average P/E of the S&P 500 Index is less than 20 times, and the U.S. financial giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>P/E is less than 9 times, and Morgan Stanley P/E is 10.7 times.</p><p>Compared with international giants, AMTD Digital is overvalued by more than a star. From fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2021 (as of April 30 of that year), AMTD Digital's revenue was HK $15 million, HK $167.5 million and HK $195.8 million respectively; Profit for the same period (including changes in fair value of financial assets) was HK $22 million, HK $158 million and HK $172 million, respectively. In the ten months from May 2021 to the end of February 2021, AMTD Digital's revenue was HK $168 million and its net profit was HK $187 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and 65.5% respectively.</p><p>AMTD Digital mainly has two business lines, namely digital financial services and cobweb ecosystem solutions. Among them, digital financial services mainly provide customers with insurance and digital banking services. AMTD Digital has repeatedly emphasized that the \"scarcest digital financial license in Asia\" actually implements only the insurance brokerage license, which can conduct insurance brokerage business in Singapore and Hong Kong. The remaining financial assets and licenses still need to be approved by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Another major business line, the cobweb ecosystem solution, is to provide paid members with exclusive access to the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem and its famous corporate members, outstanding corporate executives and partners. At the same time, the business provides support in relevant professional fields through cooperation with industry leaders and academic institutions. To sort it out briefly, this business doesn't seem to be much different from ordinary investment banking think tanks.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the growth rate of AMTD Digital's two major businesses has slowed down significantly. From fiscal year 2019 to the first ten months of fiscal year 2022, the revenue of digital financial services business was HK $8.671 million, HK $9.869 million, HK $11.721 million and HK $10.088 million respectively. During the same period, profits were HK $1.863 million, HK $4.765 million, HK $1.084 million and HK $1.089 million.<b>In the first ten months of fiscal year 2022, the revenue and profit of the digital financial services business both experienced a year-on-year decline, of which the profit decline reached 18%, far greater than the 2.74% decline in revenue.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca72e2d599028c697449c8c68834fa9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In the first ten months of fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2022, AMTD Digital's cobweb ecosystem solution business revenue was HK $5.88 million, HK $158 million, HK $184 million and HK $157 million, respectively, and its profit was HK $1.95 million., 140 million Hong Kong dollars, 144 million Hong Kong dollars and 117 million Hong Kong dollars.<b>Although this part of the business has maintained revenue growth in the ten months of fiscal year 2022, it has fallen into a situation of increasing revenue but not increasing profits. The current profit fell by 2.5% year-on-year.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202208030000308211275e&s=b\">大摩财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/675f5186f47a5ae9453d9922f4bd33f5","relate_stocks":{"HKD":"尚乘数科","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202208030000308211275e&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2256670674","content_text":"一家少有人注意的中小型中概股，在华尔街市场掀起一股“妖风”：上市半个月，股价上涨215倍，市值突破3100亿美元。香港商人蔡志坚控制的尚乘数科于7月14日登陆美股，发行价7.8美元，绿鞋后募资1.435亿美元，是年内最大的中概股在美IPO项目。上市后，尚乘数科意外走出强势上涨行情，连续多个交易日涨幅超过100%，8月1日收盘价742美元，相比发行价上涨94倍。8月2日，尚乘数科收盘价1679美元，市值最高突破3100亿美元。美国上市的中概龙头阿里巴巴当日市值约2400亿美元。值得一提的是，尚乘数科总股本7401万股，但流通股只有837万股，占比约11.3%。上市以后每日交易量只有几十万股。年内最妖的“妖股”尚乘数科是尚乘集团旗下的一家数字金融公司。尚乘集团最早由李嘉诚的长江实业、和记黄埔于2003年创立，2014年引入新股东摩根士丹利亚洲私募股权投资基金（MSPE）后，李氏家族不再参与其日常管理营运。投行出身的香港商人蔡志坚成为尚乘集团的实际控制人。公开资料显示，尚乘集团围绕IDEA战略展开业务布局，其中”I”代表投资银行及传统金融，“D”即数字金融板块（尚乘数科），“E”是教育方，”A”则地产及酒店。最近几年，尚乘集团不断拆分旗下业务板块上市，其中尚乘国际于2019年8月登陆纽交所，并在2020年在新加坡交易所二次上市，是新加坡第一家同股不同权的上市公司。尚乘数科成立于2019年，2022年初被尚乘国际斥资12亿美元收购。收购完成后，尚乘国际拥有尚乘数科97.1%股权，前者也将股票简称更名为尚乘IDEA集团。截至2021年底，AMTD集团持有尚乘国际50.6%股权，蔡志坚独资的Infinity Power Investments Limited 持股32.5%，世纪城市国际持股5.8%。根据招股书，Infinity Power Investments Limited是尚乘国际最大单一股东，AMTD集团股权并未披露，根据招股书内容，仅可以知道其董事会成员包括蔡志坚。值得一提的是，尚乘IDEA集团（原来的尚乘国际）在8月2日股价大幅上涨，盘中触及12.89美元的历史高点，截至8月2日23时，尚乘IDEA集团涨幅约300%，最新市值在31亿美元左右。现年44岁的蔡志坚，曾在普华永道、瑞银等公司任职。2014年至2015年，蔡志坚在瑞银工作期间，参与的两个项目，由于存在利益冲突及信息披露问题，遭到香港证监会调查。2022年1月，香港证监会向蔡志坚发出《决定通知书》，裁定蔡志坚有披露及公平对待、利益冲突两项违法行为，并对其做出禁业两年的处罚决定。蔡志坚随后提出了复核申请，并提出了闭门聆讯申请。不过，蔡志坚的闭门聆讯申请并没有通过，目前该案尚待审理，禁令暂未生效，正式聆讯将在2022年12月12日至16日间公开举行。2019年，蔡志坚曾被中民投追债，并被指控金融诈骗。此后，蔡志坚行踪趋于低调。财新引述知情人士消息称，蔡志坚今年疑似为躲债而离开香港，2022年3月至4月期间，曾身处新加坡。泡沫有多大？8月1日收盘后，尚乘数科的滚动市盈率已经达到5992倍。尚乘数科的基本面能撑起这样的估值吗？作为对比的是，标普500指数平均市盈率不到20倍，美国金融巨头摩根大通市盈率不到9倍，摩根士丹利市盈率为10.7倍。相比国际巨头，尚乘数科被高估了不止一星半点。2019财年至2021财年（截至当年4月30日），尚乘数科营收分别为0.15亿港元、1.675亿港元和1.958亿港元；同期利润（包括金融资产公允价值的变动）分别为0.22亿港元、1.58亿港元和1.72亿港元。在2021年5月至2021年2月底的十个月内，尚乘数科营收为1.68亿港元，净利润为1.87亿港元，同比分别增长3.7%和65.5%。尚乘数科主要有两大业务线，即数字金融服务和蛛网生态系统解决方案。其中，数字金融服务主要为客户提供保险和数字银行业务。尚乘数科一再强调的“亚洲最稀缺的数字金融牌照”实际落实的只有保险经纪牌照，可以在新加坡和香港进行保险经纪业务。其余的几个金融资产和牌照，还需要等待新加坡金融监管局的批准。另一大业务线蛛网生态系统解决方案，则是为付费会员提供独家访问AMTD SpiderNet生态系统及其著名的企业成员、杰出的企业高管和合作伙伴的机会。同时，该业务通过与行业领袖和学术机构合作，提供相关专业领域的支持。简单梳理一下，这个业务与一般的投行智库，似乎没有太大区别。值得一提的是，尚乘数科两大业务增速已经明显放缓。2019财年至2022财年的前十个月，数字金融服务业务营收分别为867.1万港元、986.9万港元、1172.1万港元和1008.8万港元。同期，利润为186.3万港元、476.5万港元108.4万港元和108.9万港元。2022财年前十个月，数字金融服务业务营收和利润都出现了同比下滑，其中利润下滑幅度达到18%，远大于营收下滑的2.74%。在2019财年至2022财年的前十个月，尚乘数科的蛛网生态系统解决方案业务营收分别为588万港元、1.58亿港元、1.84亿港元和1.57亿港元，利润为195万港元、1.4亿港元、1.44亿港元和1.17亿港元。这部分业务在2022财年十个月虽然保持了营收增长，但却陷入增收不增利的局面中，当期利润同比下滑2.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HKD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906121413,"gmtCreate":1659499460335,"gmtModify":1705981044870,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906121413","repostId":"2256670674","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2256670674","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659488233,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2256670674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-03 08:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is the origin of \"demon stock\" AMTD Digital? How big is the bubble?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2256670674","media":"大摩财经","summary":"一家少有人注意的中小型中概股，在华尔街市场掀起一股“妖风”：上市半个月，股价上涨215倍，市值突破3100亿美元。香港商人蔡志坚控制的尚乘数科于7月14日登陆美股，发行价7.8美元，绿鞋后募资1.43","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A small and medium-sized Chinese concept stock that few people noticed set off a \"demon wind\" in the Wall Street market: half a month after its listing, its stock price rose 215 times, and its market value exceeded US $310 billion.</p><p>Controlled by Hong Kong businessman Tsai Zhijian<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>It landed on the U.S. stock market on July 14, with an issue price of US $7.8, and raised US $143.5 million after Green Shoes. It is the largest IPO project of Chinese concept stocks in the United States during the year.</p><p>After listing, AMTD Digital unexpectedly went out of a strong rising market, with an increase of more than 100% for several consecutive trading days. The closing price on August 1 was US $742, an increase of 94 times compared to the issue price. On August 2, AMTD Digital's closing price was US $1,679, and its market value exceeded US $310 billion. The leading Chinese concept company listed in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The market value that day was approximately US $240 billion.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that AMTD Digital has a total share capital of 74.01 million shares, but only 8.37 million shares are outstanding, accounting for about 11.3%. After listing, the daily trading volume is only a few hundred thousand shares.</b></p><p><b>The most demonic \"demon stock\" of the year</b></p><p>AMTD Digital is a digital finance company under AMTD Group. AMTD Group was first founded in 2003 by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa, and introduced new shareholders in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>After the Asia Private Equity Investment Fund (MSPE), the Lee family no longer participates in its daily management and operation. Cai Zhijian, a Hong Kong businessman with investment banking background, became the actual controller of AMTD Group.</p><p>According to public information, AMTD Group develops its business layout around the IDEA strategy, in which \"I\" stands for investment banking and traditional finance, \"D\" refers to the digital finance sector (AMTD Digital), \"E\" refers to the education side, and \"A\" refers to real estate and hotels.</p><p>In recent years, AMTD Group has continuously split its business segments and listed them, among which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMTD\">AMTD International</a>Listed on the New York Stock Exchange in August 2019, and in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">Singapore Exchange</a>Secondary listing, it is the first listed company in Singapore with different rights for the same shares.</p><p>AMTD Digital was established in 2019 and was acquired by AMTD International for US $1.2 billion in early 2022. After the acquisition is completed, AMTD International owns 97.1% of AMTD Digital, and the former also changed its stock abbreviation to AMTD IDEA Group.</p><p><b>As of the end of 2021, AMTD Group holds 50.6% of AMTD International, and Infinity Power Investments Limited, wholly owned by Tsai Zhijian, holds 32.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00355\">Century City International</a>Holding 5.8% of the shares. According to the prospectus, Infinity Power Investments Limited is the largest single shareholder of AMTD International. The equity of AMTD Group has not been disclosed. According to the content of the prospectus, it can only be known that its board members include Cai Zhijian.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9330f70732bcf7f381d1ac52029f9d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>It is worth mentioning that the stock price of AMTD IDEA Group (formerly AMTD International) rose sharply on August 2, hitting an all-time high of US $12.89 during the session. As of 23:00 on August 2, AMTD IDEA Group rose by about 300%, the latest market value is around US $3.1 billion.</p><p>Cai Zhijian, 44, once worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Waiting for employment in the company. From 2014 to 2015, when Cai Zhijian worked at UBS, two projects he participated in were investigated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission due to conflicts of interest and information disclosure issues. In January 2022, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission issued a \"Notice of Decision\" to Cai Zhijian, ruling that Cai Zhijian had two illegal acts: disclosure, fair treatment, and conflict of interest, and made a penalty decision to ban him from business for two years. Cai Zhijian then filed an application for review and filed an application for closed-door hearing.</p><p>However, Cai Zhijian's application for a closed-door hearing has not been passed. The case is currently pending trial and the injunction has not yet taken effect. The formal hearing will be held in public from December 12 to 16, 2022.</p><p>In 2019, Cai Zhijian was debt collected by CMIG and accused of financial fraud. Since then, Cai Zhijian's whereabouts have tended to be low-key. Caixin quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Cai Zhijian was suspected of leaving Hong Kong this year to avoid debts and was in Singapore from March to April 2022.</p><p><b>How big is the bubble?</b></p><p>After the market closed on August 1, AMTD Digital's rolling P/E has reached 5,992 times. Can AMTD Digital's fundamentals support such a valuation?</p><p>In contrast, the average P/E of the S&P 500 Index is less than 20 times, and the U.S. financial giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>P/E is less than 9 times, and Morgan Stanley P/E is 10.7 times.</p><p>Compared with international giants, AMTD Digital is overvalued by more than a star. From fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2021 (as of April 30 of that year), AMTD Digital's revenue was HK $15 million, HK $167.5 million and HK $195.8 million respectively; Profit for the same period (including changes in fair value of financial assets) was HK $22 million, HK $158 million and HK $172 million, respectively. In the ten months from May 2021 to the end of February 2021, AMTD Digital's revenue was HK $168 million and its net profit was HK $187 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and 65.5% respectively.</p><p>AMTD Digital mainly has two business lines, namely digital financial services and cobweb ecosystem solutions. Among them, digital financial services mainly provide customers with insurance and digital banking services. AMTD Digital has repeatedly emphasized that the \"scarcest digital financial license in Asia\" actually implements only the insurance brokerage license, which can conduct insurance brokerage business in Singapore and Hong Kong. The remaining financial assets and licenses still need to be approved by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Another major business line, the cobweb ecosystem solution, is to provide paid members with exclusive access to the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem and its famous corporate members, outstanding corporate executives and partners. At the same time, the business provides support in relevant professional fields through cooperation with industry leaders and academic institutions. To sort it out briefly, this business doesn't seem to be much different from ordinary investment banking think tanks.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the growth rate of AMTD Digital's two major businesses has slowed down significantly. From fiscal year 2019 to the first ten months of fiscal year 2022, the revenue of digital financial services business was HK $8.671 million, HK $9.869 million, HK $11.721 million and HK $10.088 million respectively. During the same period, profits were HK $1.863 million, HK $4.765 million, HK $1.084 million and HK $1.089 million.<b>In the first ten months of fiscal year 2022, the revenue and profit of the digital financial services business both experienced a year-on-year decline, of which the profit decline reached 18%, far greater than the 2.74% decline in revenue.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca72e2d599028c697449c8c68834fa9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In the first ten months of fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2022, AMTD Digital's cobweb ecosystem solution business revenue was HK $5.88 million, HK $158 million, HK $184 million and HK $157 million, respectively, and its profit was HK $1.95 million., 140 million Hong Kong dollars, 144 million Hong Kong dollars and 117 million Hong Kong dollars.<b>Although this part of the business has maintained revenue growth in the ten months of fiscal year 2022, it has fallen into a situation of increasing revenue but not increasing profits. The current profit fell by 2.5% year-on-year.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the origin of \"demon stock\" AMTD Digital? How big is the bubble?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the origin of \"demon stock\" AMTD Digital? How big is the bubble?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">大摩财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-03 08:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A small and medium-sized Chinese concept stock that few people noticed set off a \"demon wind\" in the Wall Street market: half a month after its listing, its stock price rose 215 times, and its market value exceeded US $310 billion.</p><p>Controlled by Hong Kong businessman Tsai Zhijian<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>It landed on the U.S. stock market on July 14, with an issue price of US $7.8, and raised US $143.5 million after Green Shoes. It is the largest IPO project of Chinese concept stocks in the United States during the year.</p><p>After listing, AMTD Digital unexpectedly went out of a strong rising market, with an increase of more than 100% for several consecutive trading days. The closing price on August 1 was US $742, an increase of 94 times compared to the issue price. On August 2, AMTD Digital's closing price was US $1,679, and its market value exceeded US $310 billion. The leading Chinese concept company listed in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The market value that day was approximately US $240 billion.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that AMTD Digital has a total share capital of 74.01 million shares, but only 8.37 million shares are outstanding, accounting for about 11.3%. After listing, the daily trading volume is only a few hundred thousand shares.</b></p><p><b>The most demonic \"demon stock\" of the year</b></p><p>AMTD Digital is a digital finance company under AMTD Group. AMTD Group was first founded in 2003 by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa, and introduced new shareholders in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>After the Asia Private Equity Investment Fund (MSPE), the Lee family no longer participates in its daily management and operation. Cai Zhijian, a Hong Kong businessman with investment banking background, became the actual controller of AMTD Group.</p><p>According to public information, AMTD Group develops its business layout around the IDEA strategy, in which \"I\" stands for investment banking and traditional finance, \"D\" refers to the digital finance sector (AMTD Digital), \"E\" refers to the education side, and \"A\" refers to real estate and hotels.</p><p>In recent years, AMTD Group has continuously split its business segments and listed them, among which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMTD\">AMTD International</a>Listed on the New York Stock Exchange in August 2019, and in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">Singapore Exchange</a>Secondary listing, it is the first listed company in Singapore with different rights for the same shares.</p><p>AMTD Digital was established in 2019 and was acquired by AMTD International for US $1.2 billion in early 2022. After the acquisition is completed, AMTD International owns 97.1% of AMTD Digital, and the former also changed its stock abbreviation to AMTD IDEA Group.</p><p><b>As of the end of 2021, AMTD Group holds 50.6% of AMTD International, and Infinity Power Investments Limited, wholly owned by Tsai Zhijian, holds 32.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00355\">Century City International</a>Holding 5.8% of the shares. According to the prospectus, Infinity Power Investments Limited is the largest single shareholder of AMTD International. The equity of AMTD Group has not been disclosed. According to the content of the prospectus, it can only be known that its board members include Cai Zhijian.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9330f70732bcf7f381d1ac52029f9d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>It is worth mentioning that the stock price of AMTD IDEA Group (formerly AMTD International) rose sharply on August 2, hitting an all-time high of US $12.89 during the session. As of 23:00 on August 2, AMTD IDEA Group rose by about 300%, the latest market value is around US $3.1 billion.</p><p>Cai Zhijian, 44, once worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Waiting for employment in the company. From 2014 to 2015, when Cai Zhijian worked at UBS, two projects he participated in were investigated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission due to conflicts of interest and information disclosure issues. In January 2022, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission issued a \"Notice of Decision\" to Cai Zhijian, ruling that Cai Zhijian had two illegal acts: disclosure, fair treatment, and conflict of interest, and made a penalty decision to ban him from business for two years. Cai Zhijian then filed an application for review and filed an application for closed-door hearing.</p><p>However, Cai Zhijian's application for a closed-door hearing has not been passed. The case is currently pending trial and the injunction has not yet taken effect. The formal hearing will be held in public from December 12 to 16, 2022.</p><p>In 2019, Cai Zhijian was debt collected by CMIG and accused of financial fraud. Since then, Cai Zhijian's whereabouts have tended to be low-key. Caixin quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Cai Zhijian was suspected of leaving Hong Kong this year to avoid debts and was in Singapore from March to April 2022.</p><p><b>How big is the bubble?</b></p><p>After the market closed on August 1, AMTD Digital's rolling P/E has reached 5,992 times. Can AMTD Digital's fundamentals support such a valuation?</p><p>In contrast, the average P/E of the S&P 500 Index is less than 20 times, and the U.S. financial giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>P/E is less than 9 times, and Morgan Stanley P/E is 10.7 times.</p><p>Compared with international giants, AMTD Digital is overvalued by more than a star. From fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2021 (as of April 30 of that year), AMTD Digital's revenue was HK $15 million, HK $167.5 million and HK $195.8 million respectively; Profit for the same period (including changes in fair value of financial assets) was HK $22 million, HK $158 million and HK $172 million, respectively. In the ten months from May 2021 to the end of February 2021, AMTD Digital's revenue was HK $168 million and its net profit was HK $187 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and 65.5% respectively.</p><p>AMTD Digital mainly has two business lines, namely digital financial services and cobweb ecosystem solutions. Among them, digital financial services mainly provide customers with insurance and digital banking services. AMTD Digital has repeatedly emphasized that the \"scarcest digital financial license in Asia\" actually implements only the insurance brokerage license, which can conduct insurance brokerage business in Singapore and Hong Kong. The remaining financial assets and licenses still need to be approved by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Another major business line, the cobweb ecosystem solution, is to provide paid members with exclusive access to the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem and its famous corporate members, outstanding corporate executives and partners. At the same time, the business provides support in relevant professional fields through cooperation with industry leaders and academic institutions. To sort it out briefly, this business doesn't seem to be much different from ordinary investment banking think tanks.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the growth rate of AMTD Digital's two major businesses has slowed down significantly. From fiscal year 2019 to the first ten months of fiscal year 2022, the revenue of digital financial services business was HK $8.671 million, HK $9.869 million, HK $11.721 million and HK $10.088 million respectively. During the same period, profits were HK $1.863 million, HK $4.765 million, HK $1.084 million and HK $1.089 million.<b>In the first ten months of fiscal year 2022, the revenue and profit of the digital financial services business both experienced a year-on-year decline, of which the profit decline reached 18%, far greater than the 2.74% decline in revenue.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca72e2d599028c697449c8c68834fa9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In the first ten months of fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2022, AMTD Digital's cobweb ecosystem solution business revenue was HK $5.88 million, HK $158 million, HK $184 million and HK $157 million, respectively, and its profit was HK $1.95 million., 140 million Hong Kong dollars, 144 million Hong Kong dollars and 117 million Hong Kong dollars.<b>Although this part of the business has maintained revenue growth in the ten months of fiscal year 2022, it has fallen into a situation of increasing revenue but not increasing profits. The current profit fell by 2.5% year-on-year.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202208030000308211275e&s=b\">大摩财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/675f5186f47a5ae9453d9922f4bd33f5","relate_stocks":{"HKD":"尚乘数科","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202208030000308211275e&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2256670674","content_text":"一家少有人注意的中小型中概股，在华尔街市场掀起一股“妖风”：上市半个月，股价上涨215倍，市值突破3100亿美元。香港商人蔡志坚控制的尚乘数科于7月14日登陆美股，发行价7.8美元，绿鞋后募资1.435亿美元，是年内最大的中概股在美IPO项目。上市后，尚乘数科意外走出强势上涨行情，连续多个交易日涨幅超过100%，8月1日收盘价742美元，相比发行价上涨94倍。8月2日，尚乘数科收盘价1679美元，市值最高突破3100亿美元。美国上市的中概龙头阿里巴巴当日市值约2400亿美元。值得一提的是，尚乘数科总股本7401万股，但流通股只有837万股，占比约11.3%。上市以后每日交易量只有几十万股。年内最妖的“妖股”尚乘数科是尚乘集团旗下的一家数字金融公司。尚乘集团最早由李嘉诚的长江实业、和记黄埔于2003年创立，2014年引入新股东摩根士丹利亚洲私募股权投资基金（MSPE）后，李氏家族不再参与其日常管理营运。投行出身的香港商人蔡志坚成为尚乘集团的实际控制人。公开资料显示，尚乘集团围绕IDEA战略展开业务布局，其中”I”代表投资银行及传统金融，“D”即数字金融板块（尚乘数科），“E”是教育方，”A”则地产及酒店。最近几年，尚乘集团不断拆分旗下业务板块上市，其中尚乘国际于2019年8月登陆纽交所，并在2020年在新加坡交易所二次上市，是新加坡第一家同股不同权的上市公司。尚乘数科成立于2019年，2022年初被尚乘国际斥资12亿美元收购。收购完成后，尚乘国际拥有尚乘数科97.1%股权，前者也将股票简称更名为尚乘IDEA集团。截至2021年底，AMTD集团持有尚乘国际50.6%股权，蔡志坚独资的Infinity Power Investments Limited 持股32.5%，世纪城市国际持股5.8%。根据招股书，Infinity Power Investments Limited是尚乘国际最大单一股东，AMTD集团股权并未披露，根据招股书内容，仅可以知道其董事会成员包括蔡志坚。值得一提的是，尚乘IDEA集团（原来的尚乘国际）在8月2日股价大幅上涨，盘中触及12.89美元的历史高点，截至8月2日23时，尚乘IDEA集团涨幅约300%，最新市值在31亿美元左右。现年44岁的蔡志坚，曾在普华永道、瑞银等公司任职。2014年至2015年，蔡志坚在瑞银工作期间，参与的两个项目，由于存在利益冲突及信息披露问题，遭到香港证监会调查。2022年1月，香港证监会向蔡志坚发出《决定通知书》，裁定蔡志坚有披露及公平对待、利益冲突两项违法行为，并对其做出禁业两年的处罚决定。蔡志坚随后提出了复核申请，并提出了闭门聆讯申请。不过，蔡志坚的闭门聆讯申请并没有通过，目前该案尚待审理，禁令暂未生效，正式聆讯将在2022年12月12日至16日间公开举行。2019年，蔡志坚曾被中民投追债，并被指控金融诈骗。此后，蔡志坚行踪趋于低调。财新引述知情人士消息称，蔡志坚今年疑似为躲债而离开香港，2022年3月至4月期间，曾身处新加坡。泡沫有多大？8月1日收盘后，尚乘数科的滚动市盈率已经达到5992倍。尚乘数科的基本面能撑起这样的估值吗？作为对比的是，标普500指数平均市盈率不到20倍，美国金融巨头摩根大通市盈率不到9倍，摩根士丹利市盈率为10.7倍。相比国际巨头，尚乘数科被高估了不止一星半点。2019财年至2021财年（截至当年4月30日），尚乘数科营收分别为0.15亿港元、1.675亿港元和1.958亿港元；同期利润（包括金融资产公允价值的变动）分别为0.22亿港元、1.58亿港元和1.72亿港元。在2021年5月至2021年2月底的十个月内，尚乘数科营收为1.68亿港元，净利润为1.87亿港元，同比分别增长3.7%和65.5%。尚乘数科主要有两大业务线，即数字金融服务和蛛网生态系统解决方案。其中，数字金融服务主要为客户提供保险和数字银行业务。尚乘数科一再强调的“亚洲最稀缺的数字金融牌照”实际落实的只有保险经纪牌照，可以在新加坡和香港进行保险经纪业务。其余的几个金融资产和牌照，还需要等待新加坡金融监管局的批准。另一大业务线蛛网生态系统解决方案，则是为付费会员提供独家访问AMTD SpiderNet生态系统及其著名的企业成员、杰出的企业高管和合作伙伴的机会。同时，该业务通过与行业领袖和学术机构合作，提供相关专业领域的支持。简单梳理一下，这个业务与一般的投行智库，似乎没有太大区别。值得一提的是，尚乘数科两大业务增速已经明显放缓。2019财年至2022财年的前十个月，数字金融服务业务营收分别为867.1万港元、986.9万港元、1172.1万港元和1008.8万港元。同期，利润为186.3万港元、476.5万港元108.4万港元和108.9万港元。2022财年前十个月，数字金融服务业务营收和利润都出现了同比下滑，其中利润下滑幅度达到18%，远大于营收下滑的2.74%。在2019财年至2022财年的前十个月，尚乘数科的蛛网生态系统解决方案业务营收分别为588万港元、1.58亿港元、1.84亿港元和1.57亿港元，利润为195万港元、1.4亿港元、1.44亿港元和1.17亿港元。这部分业务在2022财年十个月虽然保持了营收增长，但却陷入增收不增利的局面中，当期利润同比下滑2.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HKD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909148235,"gmtCreate":1658839554727,"gmtModify":1676536215223,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909148235","repostId":"1124135125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909148129,"gmtCreate":1658839540261,"gmtModify":1676536215214,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909148129","repostId":"1124135125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047533208,"gmtCreate":1656940303604,"gmtModify":1676535918906,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047533208","repostId":"1128701140","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128701140","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有深度、有温度、有态度，在这里读懂财富。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金融八卦女频道","id":"63","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7"},"pubTimestamp":1656917579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128701140?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 14:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128701140","media":"金融八卦女频道","summary":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Short Squeeze War\" known to all people on earth has finally come to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Tsingshan Group escaped unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its meat and lost 120 million US dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, the actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>According to news on June 29, Tsingshan Holding Group safely withdrew from most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars was far from enough.</p><p>Friends who are concerned about this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterkills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly sort out the entire process of the Lunni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lunni futures soared from US $29,000/ton to US $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, Lunni futures rose from US $60,000/ton to US $100,000/ton in a straight line, and the entire process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8:15 on March 8 (UK time), Lunkin Exchange suspended all nickel contract trading and canceled trading after 0:00 on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot goods through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group stated that it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan's positions will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its positions thereafter.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading at Lunjin Exchange resumed.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group withdrew from most of its short nickel positions in Lunjin, and the incident ended.</p><p>After reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>We can't really blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has cultivated itself as \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin Exchange. The delivered products of Lunjin Exchange are electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high nickel and ferronickel with a content of about 10%. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Tsingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of short futures orders, but the entire nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange was only 80,000 tons. That is to say, even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Exchange, it could not make up half of its short futures orders. 3. Usually, when Tsingshan Group meets the delivery period, it will buy nickel with Russia to close its position. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel was embargoed. Tsingshan Group did not respond to this news in time. To sum up, although Tsingshan Group has a rich family, it has played all its good cards at this card table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which was born bloodthirsty, let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised nickel futures prices on March 7 and March 8, quickly raising things worth 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, breaking the \"highest record for any kind of asset price fluctuations.\"</p><p>The situation at that time was that Tsingshan Group would have to lose hundreds of billions if it could not ship goods, and if it had no money, it would have to sell Indonesian nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies have worked so hard to build might be severely hit.</p><p>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back.</p><p>Although we didn't know who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high matte nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>Judging from the gossip, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement at that time, which can be described as united as one. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"After receiving many phone calls, relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why didn't the final result be that Tsingshan Group took out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and handed them over to Wall Street takeovers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they could only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic companies do if so much nickel is handed over? Do all companies stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing so, of course, is very relieving, but the price paid is too great.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th with the confidence that he could produce 200,000 tons of delivery products, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short position to turn the corner. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion dollars at that time, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Short-squeezing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve a lot of funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes in order to obtain Tsingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mines. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest company in Switzerland, with an operating income of US $215.11 billion. Its business scope covers the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money by itself. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase sold it out in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short squeeze\" incident in March, it is difficult to have any other reason to be convincing that the veteran Wall Street investment banks lost hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about US $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into the quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter, and we will try to tide over it. We will analyze what we have done wrong and what different measures can be taken afterwards.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they are doing things for customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin Institute's behavior of \"unplugging the network cable\", and maybe they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already started to take action. They don't seem to give up and are still making their final struggles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/vision china</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, the well-known American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that the Lonkin Exchange \"cancelled the transaction after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022. The behavior is illegal.\"</p><p>Elliott's two hedge funds sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME and its clearing company LME Clear Limite to the British High Court, preparing to claim about US $456 million, or about 3 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elliott Management Company was founded in 1977, and its fund management scale will exceed US $51.5 billion by the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street and is known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce is Elliot? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changing in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion U.S. dollars was unable to repay. Just as other financial institutions avoided it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to bargain-hunting Argentine Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. The creditors headed by Elliott ruthlessly refused twice and took Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to the current creditors who disagree with Evergrande's restructuring. What will happen to Evergrande?</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court finally ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle. This single Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win the lawsuit with HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinches Musks' fate? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, relevant personnel of Glencore said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates this is that the competition for metal nickel has entered a fierce stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is a high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel battery, the proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data show that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel delivery products are bought in large quantities for the manufacture of new energy batteries. It is estimated that the nickel gap from 2023 to 2025 will be-25,600 tons,-27,900 tons, and-65,300 tons respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just God feeding Xiang Guangda with a rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in an ordinary worker's family in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou in 1958. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Door and Window Manufacturing Company\" with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Because of his emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's automobile doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory, and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in the research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-submerged furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop the new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace dual method, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting. It was cut by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel, so who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining right of laterite nickel mine with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company for the first time was successfully shipped back to China. Tsingshan Holding Group has conquered the technology of purifying high matte nickel with laterite nickel ore. After the operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, there is no need to worry about stainless steel. Tsingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to tens of millions of tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, the total revenue of Tsingshan Holding Group will reach 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500 companies. Tianyancha shows that Xiang Guangda holds 48.45% of the equity of Tsingshan Holding Group through various channels and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings Equity Structure/Screenshot of Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, new energy has become the hottest track at the moment. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the market value of Tesla even exceeds the combined market value of several established auto companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel output will be 600,000 tons in 2021, reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and will reach 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\" and has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>If you are not satisfied, you just \"work\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Tsingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>It's just that there are many people who are popular, and pigs on the tuyere are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"robbery\" safely, still needs to be careful. He has too much \"nickel\" in his hand, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/63\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金融八卦女频道 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-04 14:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Short Squeeze War\" known to all people on earth has finally come to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Tsingshan Group escaped unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its meat and lost 120 million US dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, the actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>According to news on June 29, Tsingshan Holding Group safely withdrew from most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars was far from enough.</p><p>Friends who are concerned about this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterkills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly sort out the entire process of the Lunni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lunni futures soared from US $29,000/ton to US $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, Lunni futures rose from US $60,000/ton to US $100,000/ton in a straight line, and the entire process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8:15 on March 8 (UK time), Lunkin Exchange suspended all nickel contract trading and canceled trading after 0:00 on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot goods through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group stated that it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan's positions will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its positions thereafter.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading at Lunjin Exchange resumed.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group withdrew from most of its short nickel positions in Lunjin, and the incident ended.</p><p>After reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>We can't really blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has cultivated itself as \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin Exchange. The delivered products of Lunjin Exchange are electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high nickel and ferronickel with a content of about 10%. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Tsingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of short futures orders, but the entire nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange was only 80,000 tons. That is to say, even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Exchange, it could not make up half of its short futures orders. 3. Usually, when Tsingshan Group meets the delivery period, it will buy nickel with Russia to close its position. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel was embargoed. Tsingshan Group did not respond to this news in time. To sum up, although Tsingshan Group has a rich family, it has played all its good cards at this card table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which was born bloodthirsty, let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised nickel futures prices on March 7 and March 8, quickly raising things worth 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, breaking the \"highest record for any kind of asset price fluctuations.\"</p><p>The situation at that time was that Tsingshan Group would have to lose hundreds of billions if it could not ship goods, and if it had no money, it would have to sell Indonesian nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies have worked so hard to build might be severely hit.</p><p>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back.</p><p>Although we didn't know who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high matte nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>Judging from the gossip, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement at that time, which can be described as united as one. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"After receiving many phone calls, relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why didn't the final result be that Tsingshan Group took out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and handed them over to Wall Street takeovers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they could only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic companies do if so much nickel is handed over? Do all companies stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing so, of course, is very relieving, but the price paid is too great.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th with the confidence that he could produce 200,000 tons of delivery products, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short position to turn the corner. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion dollars at that time, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Short-squeezing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve a lot of funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes in order to obtain Tsingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mines. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest company in Switzerland, with an operating income of US $215.11 billion. Its business scope covers the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money by itself. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase sold it out in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short squeeze\" incident in March, it is difficult to have any other reason to be convincing that the veteran Wall Street investment banks lost hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about US $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into the quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter, and we will try to tide over it. We will analyze what we have done wrong and what different measures can be taken afterwards.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they are doing things for customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin Institute's behavior of \"unplugging the network cable\", and maybe they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already started to take action. They don't seem to give up and are still making their final struggles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/vision china</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, the well-known American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that the Lonkin Exchange \"cancelled the transaction after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022. The behavior is illegal.\"</p><p>Elliott's two hedge funds sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME and its clearing company LME Clear Limite to the British High Court, preparing to claim about US $456 million, or about 3 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elliott Management Company was founded in 1977, and its fund management scale will exceed US $51.5 billion by the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street and is known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce is Elliot? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changing in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion U.S. dollars was unable to repay. Just as other financial institutions avoided it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to bargain-hunting Argentine Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. The creditors headed by Elliott ruthlessly refused twice and took Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to the current creditors who disagree with Evergrande's restructuring. What will happen to Evergrande?</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court finally ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle. This single Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win the lawsuit with HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinches Musks' fate? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, relevant personnel of Glencore said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates this is that the competition for metal nickel has entered a fierce stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is a high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel battery, the proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data show that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel delivery products are bought in large quantities for the manufacture of new energy batteries. It is estimated that the nickel gap from 2023 to 2025 will be-25,600 tons,-27,900 tons, and-65,300 tons respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just God feeding Xiang Guangda with a rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in an ordinary worker's family in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou in 1958. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Door and Window Manufacturing Company\" with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Because of his emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's automobile doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory, and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in the research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-submerged furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop the new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace dual method, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting. It was cut by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel, so who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining right of laterite nickel mine with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company for the first time was successfully shipped back to China. Tsingshan Holding Group has conquered the technology of purifying high matte nickel with laterite nickel ore. After the operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, there is no need to worry about stainless steel. Tsingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to tens of millions of tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, the total revenue of Tsingshan Holding Group will reach 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500 companies. Tianyancha shows that Xiang Guangda holds 48.45% of the equity of Tsingshan Holding Group through various channels and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings Equity Structure/Screenshot of Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, new energy has become the hottest track at the moment. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the market value of Tesla even exceeds the combined market value of several established auto companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel output will be 600,000 tons in 2021, reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and will reach 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\" and has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>If you are not satisfied, you just \"work\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Tsingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>It's just that there are many people who are popular, and pigs on the tuyere are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"robbery\" safely, still needs to be careful. He has too much \"nickel\" in his hand, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128701140","content_text":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都知道的“妖镍逼空大战”，终于告一段落：温州首富项光达和他的青山集团全身而退，华尔街巨头摩根大通割肉出局，亏了1.2亿美金（约8亿人民币）。▲青山控股实控人项光达/图源：网络6月29日消息，青山控股集团安全退出了伦敦金属交易所（LME）的大部分镍空头头寸。持仓规模已经缩减至3万吨左右，远低于事发时的超15万吨的峰值，且这些头寸都不是通过摩根大通持有。这很可能是双方协商的结果，青山集团给华尔街大佬留了体面，否则根据当时的情况，1.2亿美金是远远不够的。关注这个事情的朋友可能还“懵着”，传说中的幕后黑手不是瑞士大宗商品巨鳄“嘉能可”吗，怎么最后亏损的是摩根大通？这三个月到底发生了什么？/青山反杀，华尔街失算/简单梳理一下伦镍事件的整个过程：2022年3月7日伦镍期货从2.9万美元/吨，飙涨到5.5万美元/吨，创15年内新高。3月8日伦镍期货从6万美元/吨直线拉升到10万美元/吨，整个过程不超过1小时。3月8日8时15分（英国时间），伦金所暂停所有镍合约的交易，并取消3月8日0点之后的交易，俗称“拔网线”。3月9日，项光达承认被外国资本逼空，已通过多种渠道获得充足现货。3月15日，青山集团表示与期货银行债权人组成的银团达成“静默协议”。期间不会对青山的持仓进行平仓，此后青山集团会减少持仓。3月16日，伦金所镍交易恢复。6月29日，青山集团退出了伦金所的大部分镍空头头寸，事件结束。读到这里，不了解其中细节的人还会有疑问，为什么是青山集团被华尔街资本盯上了呢？还真不能怪华尔街资本，青山集团把自己养成“唐僧肉”，谁不想吃呢。青山集团在此事上有三大致命漏洞：1、青山集团生产的镍，与伦金所交易的交割品不一样。伦金所交割品是纯度高达99.8%以上的电解镍，而青山集团生产的镍只有70%左右高冰镍和含量10%左右的镍铁。2、青山集团的对冲操作有问题。当时它买了20万吨期货空单，但整个伦金所镍库存只有8万吨，也就是说把伦金所的镍都买了，也凑不齐它期货空单的一半。3、平常青山集团遇到交割期，会跟俄罗斯买镍平仓。俄乌冲突导致市场逻辑逆转，俄罗斯的镍被禁运，青山集团没有及时对这一消息有所反应。综上，青山集团虽然家底丰厚，但在这张牌桌上，它把好牌都出了，手里只有“1对3”，别人出什么牌都要不起。遇到这种情况，天生嗜血的华尔街资本，怎么可能放过这场看似“必赢”的围猎。华尔街以前也不是没干过这种事。所以，华尔街资本于3月7日、3月8日两日快速拉升镍期货价格，将两三万美金的东西快速拉升到10万美金，顺带破了“任何一种资产价格波动的最高纪录。”当时的情况就是，青山集团拿不出货就得赔钱上千亿，没钱就得卖印尼的镍矿，中国企业辛辛苦苦建立的新能源产业链，恐将遭到狠狠一棒槌。这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。虽然当时还不知道谁下手的，但3月9日，青山集团的反杀就开始了。青山控股回应称，将用旗下高冰镍置换国内金属镍板，已通过多种渠道调配到充足现货进行交割。从小道消息来看，当时业内好几家大型企业都参与到了此次的置换，可谓是众志成城。项光达的原话是：“接到很多电话，国家有关部门和领导对青山都很支持。”那么，最后的结果为什么不是青山集团拿出20万吨镍交割品，交给华尔街接盘侠，让他们拿货无处存放，最后只能低价出售，赔上百亿美金呢？凑了20万吨镍交割品固然能够解决燃眉之急，但这么多镍交出去，国内企业该怎么办？难道所有企业都停止生产，等上几个月，新镍生产出来再恢复生产？这么做，固然很解气，付出的代价也太大了。项光达作为成熟的企业家，3月9日到3月15日，他在能拿出20万吨交割品的底气下，同对手进行了谈判，最终达成了“静默协议”。从6月29日的消息来看，青山集团缩减了空头头寸让自己转危为安，华尔街机构虽然赔了点小钱，但避免了损失扩大化，算是两边都能接受的结果。/谁是“妖镍大战”真正的幕后黑手？/3月初事件发生时，有人按过计算器，说当时青山集团可能亏损80亿到120亿美金，折合人民币上千亿。逼空这么大体量资金，涉及的资金必然不会少。当时有人怀疑大宗商品巨头嘉能可是幕后黑手，目的是为了拿到青山在印尼镍矿60%的股权。嘉能可成立于1974年，是瑞士最大的企业，营业收入高达2151.1亿美元，经营范围覆盖矿产品、能源产品和农产品的供应。但嘉能可不可能自己拿出这么多钱，背后一定有团队。从目前的情况看，至少现在已经逼出来摩根大通和埃利奥特这两头“来自华尔街的狼”。4月，摩根大通第一季财报早就出卖了它，财报显示与镍相关的业务出现了1.2亿美元的亏损。能让华尔街老牌投行一季度在单一期货商品上大亏上亿美元，除了参与了3月的“妖镍逼空”事件，很难有别的理由让人信服。事后相关信息也证明，它是青山集团大量空头头寸的最大交易对手方。而三个月前，在青山逾15万吨的镍空头头寸中，约有5万吨是通过摩根大通场外头寸持有，当时青山控股集团一度欠摩根大通约10亿美元保证金。短短三个月间，摩根大通便陷入了1.2亿美元亏损的泥潭。财务上出了这么大窟窿，负责人总得说点什么吧。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）不情愿地说：“我们本季度有一点亏损，我们会设法渡过难关的。我们会对自己做错了什么，以及伦金所之后可以采取哪些不同措施进行事后分析。”这句话说的很官方，但细品有两重意思：一，他们是在帮客户做事，摩根大通亏了，他们的客户也亏了。至于客户是谁，是不是嘉能可，并没说。二，他们对伦金所“拔网线”的行为是有保留意见的，说不定还得“采取措施”。摩根大通会采取什么措施不好说，但有人已经开始行动了，他们似乎并不认输，还在做最后的挣扎。▲图源/视觉中国根据港交所6月6日发布的公告，6月1日美国著名投资公司“埃利奥特管理公司”向他们发难，认为伦金所“取消2022年3月8日英国时间00：00之后交易的行为不合法。”埃利奥特旗下两只对冲基金将港交所和其子公司伦金所（LME）及其清算公司LME Clear Limite告上英国高等法院，准备索赔约4.56亿美元，约30亿人民币。埃利奥特管理公司成立于1977年，2021年底基金管理规模超515亿美元，它是名副其实的华尔街之狼，以强硬、激进、狠辣的投资风格闻名。埃利奥特到底有多凶狠？它能让一个国家不得安生。2000年底，阿根廷动荡不安，半个月连续换了5任总统，高达1500亿美元的外债无力偿还。正当其他金融机构避之不及时，埃利奥特用6.17亿美元抄底阿根廷国债。此后9年时间里，阿根廷为了重振经济提出债务重组方案，埃利奥特为首的债权人2次无情拒绝，还将阿根廷告上美国法庭。想象不到这招有多狠，可以类比现在债权人不同意恒大重组，恒大会怎样。2017年6月16日，美国最高法院最终判决阿根廷败诉。阿根廷含泪拿出了22.8亿美元和解，这一单埃利奥特赚了3.7倍，但每一分钱都是阿根廷人民的血汗钱。至于到底有多少华尔街的资本机构参与此事，目前还不明确。如果埃利奥特能从与港交所的官司中获胜，或许有可能看到。因为“分肉”的时候，华尔街的狼才会愿意倾巢出动。/“中国镍王”捏住马斯克们命门？ /据《每日经济新闻》报道，嘉能可相关人员在回复是否参与此事时表示，“上述这种说法完全是胡说八道（total nonsense）。”但报道中也同时指出有行内人员认为嘉能可即使没有直接参与，也是这一波行情的间接参与者。市场之所以这样猜测，是因为在全球范围内，对于金属镍的争夺已经进入白热化的阶段。镍是制造新能源三元锂电池的重要原材料之一，在电池总成本中占比将近30%，如果是高镍、超高镍电池这个比例还将更高。但镍元素在全世界分布不均，开采难度大。“镍焦虑”是新能源汽车大佬的普遍问题，连特斯拉CEO马斯克都说，镍原料的短缺是影响电动车电池生产的最大障碍。数据显示，2021年3月至2022年3月，伦金所的镍库存持续下降，降幅接近70%。主要原因是镍交割品被大量买去用于制造新能源电池。预计2023年-2025年镍的缺口分别为-2.56万吨、-2.79万吨、-6.53万吨。这不就是老天爷端着饭碗给项光达喂饭吗？1958年项光达出生于温州龙湾沙城镇的一个普通工人家庭。毕业后在国企干了八年，还当上了车间主任。1988年，项光达准备“三十而立”，他放弃了当时人人羡慕的“铁饭碗”，联合张积敏等亲戚合伙创办了“浙江瓯海汽车门窗制造公司”。由于注重研发，项光达的汽车门窗生意很好。1993年底，他与中国一汽车轮厂联合开发汽车轮辋钢，并投资2400万元，成立“浙江丰业异型钢公司”。并于1995年改组公司，成立“浙江丰业集团有限公司”，正式进入不锈钢行业。2005年之后，整个钢铁行业进入去库存周期。项光达意识到，如果不改变，企业迟早淹没在不锈钢企业的洪流中。项光达拿出100亿投入研发新技术，率先引进国际先进的回转窑—矿热炉（RKEF）冶炼工艺，又带队研发出RKEF—AOD炉双联法新技术，把不锈钢冶炼的总能耗砍掉了50%，每吨成本节省800元。“不锈钢60%--70%都是镍，那镍是谁来生产的？是老外生产的，我们自己没有生产。”项光达又将生产“镍”提到了议事日程。2008年金融危机时，项光达趁机收购了全球镍储量最高的印尼镍矿。青山控股与印尼八星投资有限公司合资设立苏拉威西矿业投资有限公司，获得了面积为4.70万公顷的红土镍矿开采权。矿业园区很快建立，2010年2月，第一次由中国公司在国外生产的镍顺利装船回国。青山控股集团又攻克了用红土镍矿提纯高冰镍的技术，一通操作下来，项光达已经打通了镍生产的上下游。有“镍”在手，不锈钢不愁。青山控股集团旗下有十多家不锈钢类子公司，2009年至2019年，青山控股不锈钢产量从百万吨增至千万吨，销售额从几百亿增至2000多亿元，目前已经坐稳全球最大不锈钢生产企业的宝座。项光达也成为当地政府企业座谈会上的常客。2021年青山控股集团总营收高达2928.92亿，位列世界500强第279位。天眼查显示，项光达通过各种路径，占有青山控股集团的股权比例高达48.45%，是集团的实际控制人。▲青山控股股权结构/天眼查截图这些年，新能源产业逐步兴起，尤其是2020年之后，新能源成为当下最火的赛道，没有之一。A股的宁德时代、比亚迪市值破万亿，特斯拉的市值甚至超过几家老牌汽车公司市值总和。新能源行业缺镍，项光达手里有很多。青山控股2021年镍产量为60万吨，2022年将达到85万吨占到全球总量的30%，2023年更将达到110万吨。手握全球近30%的镍产量，可以说，项光达是妥妥的“镍之王”，也把新能源汽车行业的命门捏得死死的。不满足只是给新能源汽车“打工”，目前青山集团已携手徐工集团，入局新能源汽车产业。只是人红是非多，风口上的猪也是最容易被下手的对象。安然渡过这一“劫”的项光达，还是要小心，他手上的“镍”太多，太诱人了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047533648,"gmtCreate":1656940297584,"gmtModify":1676535918898,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047533648","repostId":"1128701140","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128701140","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有深度、有温度、有态度，在这里读懂财富。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金融八卦女频道","id":"63","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7"},"pubTimestamp":1656917579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128701140?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 14:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128701140","media":"金融八卦女频道","summary":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Short Squeeze War\" known to all people on earth has finally come to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Tsingshan Group escaped unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its meat and lost 120 million US dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, the actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>According to news on June 29, Tsingshan Holding Group safely withdrew from most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars was far from enough.</p><p>Friends who are concerned about this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterkills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly sort out the entire process of the Lunni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lunni futures soared from US $29,000/ton to US $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, Lunni futures rose from US $60,000/ton to US $100,000/ton in a straight line, and the entire process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8:15 on March 8 (UK time), Lunkin Exchange suspended all nickel contract trading and canceled trading after 0:00 on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot goods through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group stated that it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan's positions will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its positions thereafter.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading at Lunjin Exchange resumed.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group withdrew from most of its short nickel positions in Lunjin, and the incident ended.</p><p>After reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>We can't really blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has cultivated itself as \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin Exchange. The delivered products of Lunjin Exchange are electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high nickel and ferronickel with a content of about 10%. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Tsingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of short futures orders, but the entire nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange was only 80,000 tons. That is to say, even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Exchange, it could not make up half of its short futures orders. 3. Usually, when Tsingshan Group meets the delivery period, it will buy nickel with Russia to close its position. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel was embargoed. Tsingshan Group did not respond to this news in time. To sum up, although Tsingshan Group has a rich family, it has played all its good cards at this card table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which was born bloodthirsty, let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised nickel futures prices on March 7 and March 8, quickly raising things worth 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, breaking the \"highest record for any kind of asset price fluctuations.\"</p><p>The situation at that time was that Tsingshan Group would have to lose hundreds of billions if it could not ship goods, and if it had no money, it would have to sell Indonesian nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies have worked so hard to build might be severely hit.</p><p>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back.</p><p>Although we didn't know who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high matte nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>Judging from the gossip, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement at that time, which can be described as united as one. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"After receiving many phone calls, relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why didn't the final result be that Tsingshan Group took out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and handed them over to Wall Street takeovers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they could only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic companies do if so much nickel is handed over? Do all companies stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing so, of course, is very relieving, but the price paid is too great.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th with the confidence that he could produce 200,000 tons of delivery products, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short position to turn the corner. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion dollars at that time, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Short-squeezing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve a lot of funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes in order to obtain Tsingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mines. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest company in Switzerland, with an operating income of US $215.11 billion. Its business scope covers the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money by itself. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase sold it out in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short squeeze\" incident in March, it is difficult to have any other reason to be convincing that the veteran Wall Street investment banks lost hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about US $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into the quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter, and we will try to tide over it. We will analyze what we have done wrong and what different measures can be taken afterwards.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they are doing things for customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin Institute's behavior of \"unplugging the network cable\", and maybe they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already started to take action. They don't seem to give up and are still making their final struggles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/vision china</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, the well-known American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that the Lonkin Exchange \"cancelled the transaction after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022. The behavior is illegal.\"</p><p>Elliott's two hedge funds sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME and its clearing company LME Clear Limite to the British High Court, preparing to claim about US $456 million, or about 3 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elliott Management Company was founded in 1977, and its fund management scale will exceed US $51.5 billion by the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street and is known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce is Elliot? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changing in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion U.S. dollars was unable to repay. Just as other financial institutions avoided it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to bargain-hunting Argentine Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. The creditors headed by Elliott ruthlessly refused twice and took Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to the current creditors who disagree with Evergrande's restructuring. What will happen to Evergrande?</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court finally ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle. This single Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win the lawsuit with HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinches Musks' fate? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, relevant personnel of Glencore said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates this is that the competition for metal nickel has entered a fierce stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is a high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel battery, the proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data show that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel delivery products are bought in large quantities for the manufacture of new energy batteries. It is estimated that the nickel gap from 2023 to 2025 will be-25,600 tons,-27,900 tons, and-65,300 tons respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just God feeding Xiang Guangda with a rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in an ordinary worker's family in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou in 1958. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Door and Window Manufacturing Company\" with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Because of his emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's automobile doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory, and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in the research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-submerged furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop the new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace dual method, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting. It was cut by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel, so who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining right of laterite nickel mine with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company for the first time was successfully shipped back to China. Tsingshan Holding Group has conquered the technology of purifying high matte nickel with laterite nickel ore. After the operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, there is no need to worry about stainless steel. Tsingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to tens of millions of tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, the total revenue of Tsingshan Holding Group will reach 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500 companies. Tianyancha shows that Xiang Guangda holds 48.45% of the equity of Tsingshan Holding Group through various channels and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings Equity Structure/Screenshot of Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, new energy has become the hottest track at the moment. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the market value of Tesla even exceeds the combined market value of several established auto companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel output will be 600,000 tons in 2021, reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and will reach 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\" and has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>If you are not satisfied, you just \"work\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Tsingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>It's just that there are many people who are popular, and pigs on the tuyere are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"robbery\" safely, still needs to be careful. He has too much \"nickel\" in his hand, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/63\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金融八卦女频道 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-04 14:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Short Squeeze War\" known to all people on earth has finally come to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Tsingshan Group escaped unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its meat and lost 120 million US dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, the actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>According to news on June 29, Tsingshan Holding Group safely withdrew from most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars was far from enough.</p><p>Friends who are concerned about this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterkills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly sort out the entire process of the Lunni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lunni futures soared from US $29,000/ton to US $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, Lunni futures rose from US $60,000/ton to US $100,000/ton in a straight line, and the entire process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8:15 on March 8 (UK time), Lunkin Exchange suspended all nickel contract trading and canceled trading after 0:00 on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot goods through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group stated that it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan's positions will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its positions thereafter.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading at Lunjin Exchange resumed.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group withdrew from most of its short nickel positions in Lunjin, and the incident ended.</p><p>After reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>We can't really blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has cultivated itself as \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin Exchange. The delivered products of Lunjin Exchange are electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high nickel and ferronickel with a content of about 10%. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Tsingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of short futures orders, but the entire nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange was only 80,000 tons. That is to say, even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Exchange, it could not make up half of its short futures orders. 3. Usually, when Tsingshan Group meets the delivery period, it will buy nickel with Russia to close its position. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel was embargoed. Tsingshan Group did not respond to this news in time. To sum up, although Tsingshan Group has a rich family, it has played all its good cards at this card table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which was born bloodthirsty, let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised nickel futures prices on March 7 and March 8, quickly raising things worth 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, breaking the \"highest record for any kind of asset price fluctuations.\"</p><p>The situation at that time was that Tsingshan Group would have to lose hundreds of billions if it could not ship goods, and if it had no money, it would have to sell Indonesian nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies have worked so hard to build might be severely hit.</p><p>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back.</p><p>Although we didn't know who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high matte nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>Judging from the gossip, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement at that time, which can be described as united as one. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"After receiving many phone calls, relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why didn't the final result be that Tsingshan Group took out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and handed them over to Wall Street takeovers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they could only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic companies do if so much nickel is handed over? Do all companies stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing so, of course, is very relieving, but the price paid is too great.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th with the confidence that he could produce 200,000 tons of delivery products, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short position to turn the corner. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion dollars at that time, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Short-squeezing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve a lot of funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes in order to obtain Tsingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mines. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest company in Switzerland, with an operating income of US $215.11 billion. Its business scope covers the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money by itself. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase sold it out in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short squeeze\" incident in March, it is difficult to have any other reason to be convincing that the veteran Wall Street investment banks lost hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about US $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into the quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter, and we will try to tide over it. We will analyze what we have done wrong and what different measures can be taken afterwards.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they are doing things for customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin Institute's behavior of \"unplugging the network cable\", and maybe they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already started to take action. They don't seem to give up and are still making their final struggles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/vision china</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, the well-known American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that the Lonkin Exchange \"cancelled the transaction after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022. The behavior is illegal.\"</p><p>Elliott's two hedge funds sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME and its clearing company LME Clear Limite to the British High Court, preparing to claim about US $456 million, or about 3 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elliott Management Company was founded in 1977, and its fund management scale will exceed US $51.5 billion by the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street and is known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce is Elliot? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changing in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion U.S. dollars was unable to repay. Just as other financial institutions avoided it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to bargain-hunting Argentine Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. The creditors headed by Elliott ruthlessly refused twice and took Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to the current creditors who disagree with Evergrande's restructuring. What will happen to Evergrande?</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court finally ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle. This single Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win the lawsuit with HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinches Musks' fate? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, relevant personnel of Glencore said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates this is that the competition for metal nickel has entered a fierce stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is a high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel battery, the proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data show that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel delivery products are bought in large quantities for the manufacture of new energy batteries. It is estimated that the nickel gap from 2023 to 2025 will be-25,600 tons,-27,900 tons, and-65,300 tons respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just God feeding Xiang Guangda with a rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in an ordinary worker's family in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou in 1958. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Door and Window Manufacturing Company\" with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Because of his emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's automobile doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory, and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in the research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-submerged furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop the new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace dual method, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting. It was cut by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel, so who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining right of laterite nickel mine with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company for the first time was successfully shipped back to China. Tsingshan Holding Group has conquered the technology of purifying high matte nickel with laterite nickel ore. After the operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, there is no need to worry about stainless steel. Tsingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to tens of millions of tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, the total revenue of Tsingshan Holding Group will reach 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500 companies. Tianyancha shows that Xiang Guangda holds 48.45% of the equity of Tsingshan Holding Group through various channels and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings Equity Structure/Screenshot of Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, new energy has become the hottest track at the moment. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the market value of Tesla even exceeds the combined market value of several established auto companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel output will be 600,000 tons in 2021, reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and will reach 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\" and has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>If you are not satisfied, you just \"work\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Tsingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>It's just that there are many people who are popular, and pigs on the tuyere are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"robbery\" safely, still needs to be careful. He has too much \"nickel\" in his hand, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128701140","content_text":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都知道的“妖镍逼空大战”，终于告一段落：温州首富项光达和他的青山集团全身而退，华尔街巨头摩根大通割肉出局，亏了1.2亿美金（约8亿人民币）。▲青山控股实控人项光达/图源：网络6月29日消息，青山控股集团安全退出了伦敦金属交易所（LME）的大部分镍空头头寸。持仓规模已经缩减至3万吨左右，远低于事发时的超15万吨的峰值，且这些头寸都不是通过摩根大通持有。这很可能是双方协商的结果，青山集团给华尔街大佬留了体面，否则根据当时的情况，1.2亿美金是远远不够的。关注这个事情的朋友可能还“懵着”，传说中的幕后黑手不是瑞士大宗商品巨鳄“嘉能可”吗，怎么最后亏损的是摩根大通？这三个月到底发生了什么？/青山反杀，华尔街失算/简单梳理一下伦镍事件的整个过程：2022年3月7日伦镍期货从2.9万美元/吨，飙涨到5.5万美元/吨，创15年内新高。3月8日伦镍期货从6万美元/吨直线拉升到10万美元/吨，整个过程不超过1小时。3月8日8时15分（英国时间），伦金所暂停所有镍合约的交易，并取消3月8日0点之后的交易，俗称“拔网线”。3月9日，项光达承认被外国资本逼空，已通过多种渠道获得充足现货。3月15日，青山集团表示与期货银行债权人组成的银团达成“静默协议”。期间不会对青山的持仓进行平仓，此后青山集团会减少持仓。3月16日，伦金所镍交易恢复。6月29日，青山集团退出了伦金所的大部分镍空头头寸，事件结束。读到这里，不了解其中细节的人还会有疑问，为什么是青山集团被华尔街资本盯上了呢？还真不能怪华尔街资本，青山集团把自己养成“唐僧肉”，谁不想吃呢。青山集团在此事上有三大致命漏洞：1、青山集团生产的镍，与伦金所交易的交割品不一样。伦金所交割品是纯度高达99.8%以上的电解镍，而青山集团生产的镍只有70%左右高冰镍和含量10%左右的镍铁。2、青山集团的对冲操作有问题。当时它买了20万吨期货空单，但整个伦金所镍库存只有8万吨，也就是说把伦金所的镍都买了，也凑不齐它期货空单的一半。3、平常青山集团遇到交割期，会跟俄罗斯买镍平仓。俄乌冲突导致市场逻辑逆转，俄罗斯的镍被禁运，青山集团没有及时对这一消息有所反应。综上，青山集团虽然家底丰厚，但在这张牌桌上，它把好牌都出了，手里只有“1对3”，别人出什么牌都要不起。遇到这种情况，天生嗜血的华尔街资本，怎么可能放过这场看似“必赢”的围猎。华尔街以前也不是没干过这种事。所以，华尔街资本于3月7日、3月8日两日快速拉升镍期货价格，将两三万美金的东西快速拉升到10万美金，顺带破了“任何一种资产价格波动的最高纪录。”当时的情况就是，青山集团拿不出货就得赔钱上千亿，没钱就得卖印尼的镍矿，中国企业辛辛苦苦建立的新能源产业链，恐将遭到狠狠一棒槌。这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。虽然当时还不知道谁下手的，但3月9日，青山集团的反杀就开始了。青山控股回应称，将用旗下高冰镍置换国内金属镍板，已通过多种渠道调配到充足现货进行交割。从小道消息来看，当时业内好几家大型企业都参与到了此次的置换，可谓是众志成城。项光达的原话是：“接到很多电话，国家有关部门和领导对青山都很支持。”那么，最后的结果为什么不是青山集团拿出20万吨镍交割品，交给华尔街接盘侠，让他们拿货无处存放，最后只能低价出售，赔上百亿美金呢？凑了20万吨镍交割品固然能够解决燃眉之急，但这么多镍交出去，国内企业该怎么办？难道所有企业都停止生产，等上几个月，新镍生产出来再恢复生产？这么做，固然很解气，付出的代价也太大了。项光达作为成熟的企业家，3月9日到3月15日，他在能拿出20万吨交割品的底气下，同对手进行了谈判，最终达成了“静默协议”。从6月29日的消息来看，青山集团缩减了空头头寸让自己转危为安，华尔街机构虽然赔了点小钱，但避免了损失扩大化，算是两边都能接受的结果。/谁是“妖镍大战”真正的幕后黑手？/3月初事件发生时，有人按过计算器，说当时青山集团可能亏损80亿到120亿美金，折合人民币上千亿。逼空这么大体量资金，涉及的资金必然不会少。当时有人怀疑大宗商品巨头嘉能可是幕后黑手，目的是为了拿到青山在印尼镍矿60%的股权。嘉能可成立于1974年，是瑞士最大的企业，营业收入高达2151.1亿美元，经营范围覆盖矿产品、能源产品和农产品的供应。但嘉能可不可能自己拿出这么多钱，背后一定有团队。从目前的情况看，至少现在已经逼出来摩根大通和埃利奥特这两头“来自华尔街的狼”。4月，摩根大通第一季财报早就出卖了它，财报显示与镍相关的业务出现了1.2亿美元的亏损。能让华尔街老牌投行一季度在单一期货商品上大亏上亿美元，除了参与了3月的“妖镍逼空”事件，很难有别的理由让人信服。事后相关信息也证明，它是青山集团大量空头头寸的最大交易对手方。而三个月前，在青山逾15万吨的镍空头头寸中，约有5万吨是通过摩根大通场外头寸持有，当时青山控股集团一度欠摩根大通约10亿美元保证金。短短三个月间，摩根大通便陷入了1.2亿美元亏损的泥潭。财务上出了这么大窟窿，负责人总得说点什么吧。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）不情愿地说：“我们本季度有一点亏损，我们会设法渡过难关的。我们会对自己做错了什么，以及伦金所之后可以采取哪些不同措施进行事后分析。”这句话说的很官方，但细品有两重意思：一，他们是在帮客户做事，摩根大通亏了，他们的客户也亏了。至于客户是谁，是不是嘉能可，并没说。二，他们对伦金所“拔网线”的行为是有保留意见的，说不定还得“采取措施”。摩根大通会采取什么措施不好说，但有人已经开始行动了，他们似乎并不认输，还在做最后的挣扎。▲图源/视觉中国根据港交所6月6日发布的公告，6月1日美国著名投资公司“埃利奥特管理公司”向他们发难，认为伦金所“取消2022年3月8日英国时间00：00之后交易的行为不合法。”埃利奥特旗下两只对冲基金将港交所和其子公司伦金所（LME）及其清算公司LME Clear Limite告上英国高等法院，准备索赔约4.56亿美元，约30亿人民币。埃利奥特管理公司成立于1977年，2021年底基金管理规模超515亿美元，它是名副其实的华尔街之狼，以强硬、激进、狠辣的投资风格闻名。埃利奥特到底有多凶狠？它能让一个国家不得安生。2000年底，阿根廷动荡不安，半个月连续换了5任总统，高达1500亿美元的外债无力偿还。正当其他金融机构避之不及时，埃利奥特用6.17亿美元抄底阿根廷国债。此后9年时间里，阿根廷为了重振经济提出债务重组方案，埃利奥特为首的债权人2次无情拒绝，还将阿根廷告上美国法庭。想象不到这招有多狠，可以类比现在债权人不同意恒大重组，恒大会怎样。2017年6月16日，美国最高法院最终判决阿根廷败诉。阿根廷含泪拿出了22.8亿美元和解，这一单埃利奥特赚了3.7倍，但每一分钱都是阿根廷人民的血汗钱。至于到底有多少华尔街的资本机构参与此事，目前还不明确。如果埃利奥特能从与港交所的官司中获胜，或许有可能看到。因为“分肉”的时候，华尔街的狼才会愿意倾巢出动。/“中国镍王”捏住马斯克们命门？ /据《每日经济新闻》报道，嘉能可相关人员在回复是否参与此事时表示，“上述这种说法完全是胡说八道（total nonsense）。”但报道中也同时指出有行内人员认为嘉能可即使没有直接参与，也是这一波行情的间接参与者。市场之所以这样猜测，是因为在全球范围内，对于金属镍的争夺已经进入白热化的阶段。镍是制造新能源三元锂电池的重要原材料之一，在电池总成本中占比将近30%，如果是高镍、超高镍电池这个比例还将更高。但镍元素在全世界分布不均，开采难度大。“镍焦虑”是新能源汽车大佬的普遍问题，连特斯拉CEO马斯克都说，镍原料的短缺是影响电动车电池生产的最大障碍。数据显示，2021年3月至2022年3月，伦金所的镍库存持续下降，降幅接近70%。主要原因是镍交割品被大量买去用于制造新能源电池。预计2023年-2025年镍的缺口分别为-2.56万吨、-2.79万吨、-6.53万吨。这不就是老天爷端着饭碗给项光达喂饭吗？1958年项光达出生于温州龙湾沙城镇的一个普通工人家庭。毕业后在国企干了八年，还当上了车间主任。1988年，项光达准备“三十而立”，他放弃了当时人人羡慕的“铁饭碗”，联合张积敏等亲戚合伙创办了“浙江瓯海汽车门窗制造公司”。由于注重研发，项光达的汽车门窗生意很好。1993年底，他与中国一汽车轮厂联合开发汽车轮辋钢，并投资2400万元，成立“浙江丰业异型钢公司”。并于1995年改组公司，成立“浙江丰业集团有限公司”，正式进入不锈钢行业。2005年之后，整个钢铁行业进入去库存周期。项光达意识到，如果不改变，企业迟早淹没在不锈钢企业的洪流中。项光达拿出100亿投入研发新技术，率先引进国际先进的回转窑—矿热炉（RKEF）冶炼工艺，又带队研发出RKEF—AOD炉双联法新技术，把不锈钢冶炼的总能耗砍掉了50%，每吨成本节省800元。“不锈钢60%--70%都是镍，那镍是谁来生产的？是老外生产的，我们自己没有生产。”项光达又将生产“镍”提到了议事日程。2008年金融危机时，项光达趁机收购了全球镍储量最高的印尼镍矿。青山控股与印尼八星投资有限公司合资设立苏拉威西矿业投资有限公司，获得了面积为4.70万公顷的红土镍矿开采权。矿业园区很快建立，2010年2月，第一次由中国公司在国外生产的镍顺利装船回国。青山控股集团又攻克了用红土镍矿提纯高冰镍的技术，一通操作下来，项光达已经打通了镍生产的上下游。有“镍”在手，不锈钢不愁。青山控股集团旗下有十多家不锈钢类子公司，2009年至2019年，青山控股不锈钢产量从百万吨增至千万吨，销售额从几百亿增至2000多亿元，目前已经坐稳全球最大不锈钢生产企业的宝座。项光达也成为当地政府企业座谈会上的常客。2021年青山控股集团总营收高达2928.92亿，位列世界500强第279位。天眼查显示，项光达通过各种路径，占有青山控股集团的股权比例高达48.45%，是集团的实际控制人。▲青山控股股权结构/天眼查截图这些年，新能源产业逐步兴起，尤其是2020年之后，新能源成为当下最火的赛道，没有之一。A股的宁德时代、比亚迪市值破万亿，特斯拉的市值甚至超过几家老牌汽车公司市值总和。新能源行业缺镍，项光达手里有很多。青山控股2021年镍产量为60万吨，2022年将达到85万吨占到全球总量的30%，2023年更将达到110万吨。手握全球近30%的镍产量，可以说，项光达是妥妥的“镍之王”，也把新能源汽车行业的命门捏得死死的。不满足只是给新能源汽车“打工”，目前青山集团已携手徐工集团，入局新能源汽车产业。只是人红是非多，风口上的猪也是最容易被下手的对象。安然渡过这一“劫”的项光达，还是要小心，他手上的“镍”太多，太诱人了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043478220,"gmtCreate":1655957582860,"gmtModify":1676535740403,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043478220","repostId":"1122450899","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122450899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655908485,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122450899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-22 22:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why does the Fed dare not save U.S. stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122450899","media":"见闻VIP会员","summary":"股市下跌的确推动了劳动力返回劳动力市场。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The sustained and rapid rise of U.S. stocks for a long time has caused the U.S. labor force participation rate to continue to decrease, and the decline is more obvious. It shows that the appreciation of assets, including stock investment and pension, has caused more and more American laborers to leave the labor market, or have financial freedom, or reduce the pressure to retire early.</p><p>The current plunge in U.S. stocks has shrunk the assets of U.S. stock residents, but it is also beneficial-\"helping\" the labor force to accelerate its return to the labor market. This will help reverse the trend of labor leaving the labor market and help improve the shortage of labor supply; If U.S. stocks are maintained, the labor supply shortage may be exacerbated. This may also be one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve is afraid to save U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Is there a side effect of U.S. stocks rising all the time?</b></p><p>After the U.S. CPI data hit a 40-year high in June and rate hike expectations heated up, U.S. stocks plunged sharply again. As of June 17, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq fell by 22.90%, 17.75%, and 30.98% respectively during the year.</p><p>The largest pullback/retracement of Nasdaq has reached 35% since the high point of this round, which has exceeded the largest pullback/retracement during the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. Moreover, unlike at that time, it is no longer possible for the Federal Reserve to \"release water\" to rescue the market, and the downward cycle of U.S. stocks seems to be not over yet.</p><p>Insights VIP previously mentioned that due to the deep \"binding\" between American household assets and pensions, the plunge in US stocks has shrunk the wealth of American households. According to data from the Federal Reserve, the prices of real estate and other assets rose in the first quarter, but the equity assets brought about by the company's stock shrank more seriously.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2128b9ff440a2cd6f75fe3cba8f8f2\" tg-width=\"1089\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Figure: Changes in net assets of American households and non-profit organizations (Source: Federal Reserve)</span></p><p>Considering that U.S. stocks fell more sharply in the second quarter than in the first quarter, the shrinkage will continue to increase in the second quarter.</p><p>Previously, the market had always believed that due to the deep binding between U.S. stocks and pensions, the Federal Reserve had a \"put option\" and would not let U.S. stocks fall. However, as inflation rises and the labor market is tight, the side effects of rising U.S. stocks have already appeared, and the Fed's abandonment of \"put options\" also has another profound meaning.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks have risen too much, and no one wants to work?</b></p><p>According to the data of the Federal Reserve, the largest proportion of the assets of the rich in the United States is corporate stocks and mutual funds, while the wealth of the middle class is mainly concentrated in stocks, funds and pensions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c6fff708501e31bfde5fcbf666ef1ed\" tg-width=\"1098\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. pensions are \"deeply bound\" to U.S. stocks, and more than 60% of pensions are allocated in the equity market.</p><p>The long bull of U.S. stocks has attracted a larger proportion of pensions into the market, bringing rich returns to pensions. But problems also follow. When the pension is earned \"too much\", it may make more people, especially the middle class, touch the threshold of \"financial freedom\" or \"worry-free old-age care\".</p><p>This will also reduce residents' willingness to participate in labor. Judging from the labor force participation rate and the trend of the stock market in the United States, over the past 20 years, under the dividend of the rapid development of the \"Internet of Technology\", U.S. stocks have increased tremendously, especially led by Nasdaq, with the largest increase of more than ten times in 20 years. The huge wealth appreciation effect brought about by the rapid appreciation of stock investment and pension has also caused a significant decline in the labor force participation rate in the United States. It has dropped from 67% in 2000 to around 62% today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ae51f632b488b5e3ae2fefd15f0b22\" tg-width=\"1107\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It should be noted that the labor force participation rate counts the proportion of the population willing to participate in the labor force (including the number of employed and unemployed people looking for a job) to the working-age population (aged 16-64). This value mainly reflects the working willingness of the working-age labor force, and is not significantly affected by the change of population structure, especially the aging of the population.</p><p>As can be seen,<b>Due to the remarkable effect of wealth appreciation, in the past 20 years, especially after the financial crisis in 2008, the global \"big water release\" has led to an accelerated rise in U.S. stocks and a rapid decline in the labor participation rate, which means that this round of wealth appreciation has caused more people to choose not to work or retire early.</b></p><p>This has exacerbated the recent tight labor market in the United States, accelerated the growth of wages in the United States, and contributed to the further increase of inflation.</p><p>In addition, from the perspective of long-term data, this trend not only reduces the willingness of American residents to work, but also distorts the reference significance of economic data. The economic growth rate of the United States has dropped from about 5% before 2000 to about 2% before the epidemic, but the low unemployment rate has been even lower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8b6cf636e99116ca7a0ff2f039e030\" tg-width=\"1109\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the period of upward inflation caused by the imbalance between supply and demand, this change makes the relationship between supply and demand in the labor market tighter, making it easier to raise wages, thus forming a \"wage-price\" spiral upward cycle.</p><p><b>Cooling U.S. stocks is also in</b>\"<b>help</b>\"<b>Labor force returns to work at an</b></p><p>Due to the wealth effect of the U.S. stock market in the past 20 years, more and more people choose not to work. In the context of the current big inflation and labor supply shortage, if the Federal Reserve exercises put options to protect the pension interests of U.S. residents, it may actually aggravate the labor force. Far away from labor market trends.</p><p>From the perspective of the ratio of labor participation rate to non-workers in the United States (1-labor participation rate), in addition to the special impact of COVID-19 pandemic, the decline of U.S. stocks in 2018 and 2022 has caused the phased expansion of the two-the labor force population Increase, non-working population decrease.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be719aaba590412cc9c8f6b0b1b4071\" tg-width=\"1110\" tg-height=\"752\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This may well indicate that the decline in the stock market did push the labor force back to the labor market.</p><p><b>Therefore, this round of Fed not only does not dare to let U.S. stocks strengthen, but even needs to use the power of the decline in U.S. stocks to \"help\" the labor force accelerate its return to work, so as to improve the dilemma of insufficient labor supply.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1646046088746","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why does the Fed dare not save U.S. stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy does the Fed dare not save U.S. stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">见闻VIP会员</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-22 22:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The sustained and rapid rise of U.S. stocks for a long time has caused the U.S. labor force participation rate to continue to decrease, and the decline is more obvious. It shows that the appreciation of assets, including stock investment and pension, has caused more and more American laborers to leave the labor market, or have financial freedom, or reduce the pressure to retire early.</p><p>The current plunge in U.S. stocks has shrunk the assets of U.S. stock residents, but it is also beneficial-\"helping\" the labor force to accelerate its return to the labor market. This will help reverse the trend of labor leaving the labor market and help improve the shortage of labor supply; If U.S. stocks are maintained, the labor supply shortage may be exacerbated. This may also be one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve is afraid to save U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Is there a side effect of U.S. stocks rising all the time?</b></p><p>After the U.S. CPI data hit a 40-year high in June and rate hike expectations heated up, U.S. stocks plunged sharply again. As of June 17, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq fell by 22.90%, 17.75%, and 30.98% respectively during the year.</p><p>The largest pullback/retracement of Nasdaq has reached 35% since the high point of this round, which has exceeded the largest pullback/retracement during the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. Moreover, unlike at that time, it is no longer possible for the Federal Reserve to \"release water\" to rescue the market, and the downward cycle of U.S. stocks seems to be not over yet.</p><p>Insights VIP previously mentioned that due to the deep \"binding\" between American household assets and pensions, the plunge in US stocks has shrunk the wealth of American households. According to data from the Federal Reserve, the prices of real estate and other assets rose in the first quarter, but the equity assets brought about by the company's stock shrank more seriously.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2128b9ff440a2cd6f75fe3cba8f8f2\" tg-width=\"1089\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Figure: Changes in net assets of American households and non-profit organizations (Source: Federal Reserve)</span></p><p>Considering that U.S. stocks fell more sharply in the second quarter than in the first quarter, the shrinkage will continue to increase in the second quarter.</p><p>Previously, the market had always believed that due to the deep binding between U.S. stocks and pensions, the Federal Reserve had a \"put option\" and would not let U.S. stocks fall. However, as inflation rises and the labor market is tight, the side effects of rising U.S. stocks have already appeared, and the Fed's abandonment of \"put options\" also has another profound meaning.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks have risen too much, and no one wants to work?</b></p><p>According to the data of the Federal Reserve, the largest proportion of the assets of the rich in the United States is corporate stocks and mutual funds, while the wealth of the middle class is mainly concentrated in stocks, funds and pensions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c6fff708501e31bfde5fcbf666ef1ed\" tg-width=\"1098\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. pensions are \"deeply bound\" to U.S. stocks, and more than 60% of pensions are allocated in the equity market.</p><p>The long bull of U.S. stocks has attracted a larger proportion of pensions into the market, bringing rich returns to pensions. But problems also follow. When the pension is earned \"too much\", it may make more people, especially the middle class, touch the threshold of \"financial freedom\" or \"worry-free old-age care\".</p><p>This will also reduce residents' willingness to participate in labor. Judging from the labor force participation rate and the trend of the stock market in the United States, over the past 20 years, under the dividend of the rapid development of the \"Internet of Technology\", U.S. stocks have increased tremendously, especially led by Nasdaq, with the largest increase of more than ten times in 20 years. The huge wealth appreciation effect brought about by the rapid appreciation of stock investment and pension has also caused a significant decline in the labor force participation rate in the United States. It has dropped from 67% in 2000 to around 62% today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ae51f632b488b5e3ae2fefd15f0b22\" tg-width=\"1107\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It should be noted that the labor force participation rate counts the proportion of the population willing to participate in the labor force (including the number of employed and unemployed people looking for a job) to the working-age population (aged 16-64). This value mainly reflects the working willingness of the working-age labor force, and is not significantly affected by the change of population structure, especially the aging of the population.</p><p>As can be seen,<b>Due to the remarkable effect of wealth appreciation, in the past 20 years, especially after the financial crisis in 2008, the global \"big water release\" has led to an accelerated rise in U.S. stocks and a rapid decline in the labor participation rate, which means that this round of wealth appreciation has caused more people to choose not to work or retire early.</b></p><p>This has exacerbated the recent tight labor market in the United States, accelerated the growth of wages in the United States, and contributed to the further increase of inflation.</p><p>In addition, from the perspective of long-term data, this trend not only reduces the willingness of American residents to work, but also distorts the reference significance of economic data. The economic growth rate of the United States has dropped from about 5% before 2000 to about 2% before the epidemic, but the low unemployment rate has been even lower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8b6cf636e99116ca7a0ff2f039e030\" tg-width=\"1109\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the period of upward inflation caused by the imbalance between supply and demand, this change makes the relationship between supply and demand in the labor market tighter, making it easier to raise wages, thus forming a \"wage-price\" spiral upward cycle.</p><p><b>Cooling U.S. stocks is also in</b>\"<b>help</b>\"<b>Labor force returns to work at an</b></p><p>Due to the wealth effect of the U.S. stock market in the past 20 years, more and more people choose not to work. In the context of the current big inflation and labor supply shortage, if the Federal Reserve exercises put options to protect the pension interests of U.S. residents, it may actually aggravate the labor force. Far away from labor market trends.</p><p>From the perspective of the ratio of labor participation rate to non-workers in the United States (1-labor participation rate), in addition to the special impact of COVID-19 pandemic, the decline of U.S. stocks in 2018 and 2022 has caused the phased expansion of the two-the labor force population Increase, non-working population decrease.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be719aaba590412cc9c8f6b0b1b4071\" tg-width=\"1110\" tg-height=\"752\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This may well indicate that the decline in the stock market did push the labor force back to the labor market.</p><p><b>Therefore, this round of Fed not only does not dare to let U.S. stocks strengthen, but even needs to use the power of the decline in U.S. stocks to \"help\" the labor force accelerate its return to work, so as to improve the dilemma of insufficient labor supply.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/urRTjpdQp6P3QNKued-zAg\">见闻VIP会员</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7529fdbb41cb6b3c19bcb2904f4970","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/urRTjpdQp6P3QNKued-zAg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122450899","content_text":"长期以来美股的持续、较快上涨，令美国劳动参与率持续降低，降幅较为明显。显示出包括股票投资、养老金在内的资产增值，令越来越多的美国劳动力离开劳动力市场，或财务自由，或压力减轻提前退休。目前美股暴跌，虽令美股居民资产缩水，但也有好处——\"帮助\"劳动力加速返回劳动力市场。这有助于扭转劳动力离开劳动力市场的趋势，帮助改善劳动力供给短缺；而如果维护美股，则可能加剧劳动力供给短缺。这可能也是美联储不敢救美股的原因之一。美股一直涨也是有副作用的？在6月份美国CPI数据创40年新高，加息预期升温后，美股再度大幅跳水，截至6月17日，标普500、道指、纳指年内跌幅分别达到22.90%、17.75%和30.98%。纳斯达克自本轮高点最大回撤幅度达到35%，已经超过了2020年新冠疫情时期的最大回撤。而且，与彼时不同，美联储已不可能再\"大放水\"救市了，美股的下行周期似乎仍未结束。见闻VIP此前提到，由于美国家庭资产与养老金深度\"绑定\"，美股暴跌令美国家庭财富缩水。根据美联储数据显示，一季度房地产等资产价格上涨，但公司股票带来的权益类资产缩水较为严重。图：美国家庭和非盈利组织净资产变化（来源：美联储）考虑到2季度美股跌的比1季度更凶，2季度该项缩水还会继续加大。此前市场一直认为由于美股与养老金深度绑定，美联储有\"看跌期权\"，不会放任美股下跌。但随着通胀上升、劳动力市场紧俏，美股上涨的副作用已经显现，美联储放弃\"看跌期权\"也另有深意。美股涨太多，都没人愿意干活了？根据美联储数据显示，美国富人的资产中比例最大的部分为公司股票、共同基金，而中产财富主要集中于股票、基金和养老金当中。而美国的养老金与美股\"深度绑定\"，养老金中超过60%的比例配置在权益市场。美股的长牛吸引了更大比例的养老金入市，为养老金带来了丰厚的回报。但问题也随之而来，当养老金赚的\"太多了\"，这可能让更多人，尤其是中产阶级摸到了\"财务自由\"门槛、或者说\"养老无忧\"。而这也会降低居民参与劳动的意愿。从美国的劳动参与率和股市的走势来看，20多年来，在\"科技互联网\"高速发展的红利之下，美股涨幅巨大，尤其以纳斯达克为首，20年间最大涨幅超过十倍。股票投资、养老金快速增值带来的巨大财富增值效应也令美国的劳动参与率显著下滑。从2000年的67%降至目前的62%附近。需要注意的是，劳动参与率统计的是愿意参与劳动的人口（包括就业和在找工作的失业人数）相对适龄劳动人口（16-64岁人口）的比例。该数值主要反应适龄劳动力的工作意愿，受人口结构变化、尤其是人口老龄化的影响并不显著。可以看出，由于财富增值效应显著，近20年来，尤其是08年金融危机后，全球\"大放水\"导致美股加速上涨，劳动参与率也快速下滑，意味着这一轮财富增值令更多的人选择不工作或提前退休。这就加剧了近期美国劳动力市场紧俏的局面，加速了美国薪资的增长，为通胀进一步上升\"添砖加瓦\"。另外，从长期数据来看，这种趋势除了降低了美国居民的劳动意愿，也扭曲了经济数据的参考意义。美国的经济增速从2000年前的5%左右，降至疫情前2%左右水平，但失业率低点却更低了。在由供需不平衡引发的通胀上行时期，这种变化就令劳动力市场的供求关系更加紧俏，从而更易于涨薪，进而形成\"薪资-物价\"螺旋式上升循环。给美股降温，也是在\"帮助\"劳动力加速返岗由于美股过去20年的财富效应令越来越多的人选择不工作，在当前大通胀、劳动力供给短缺的背景下，美联储如果在行使「看跌期权」保卫美国居民养老金利益，可能会反而加剧劳动力远离劳动力市场的趋势。从美国的劳动参与率与非劳动者比例（1-劳动参与率）来看，除了新冠疫情的特殊影响外，2018年及2022年的美股下跌，都造成了二者阶段性走阔——劳动人口增加、非劳动人口减少。这很可能说明，股市下跌的确推动了劳动力返回劳动力市场。因此，本轮美联储不仅不敢让美股走强，甚至还需要借助美股下跌的力量来\"帮助\"劳动力加速返岗，以改善劳动力供给不足的困境。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054237843,"gmtCreate":1655391644582,"gmtModify":1676535629202,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054237843","repostId":"2243974660","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2243974660","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655360539,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243974660?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"Lehman crisis\" in the currency circle is fermenting, and now it's the turn of hedge funds!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243974660","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"继5月中旬稳定币UST和其姊妹代币LUNA遭遇了“死亡踩踏”之后，眼看着币圈从“货币危机”发酵到“银行危机”，随后新的危机接踵而至——这次轮到了对冲基金。币圈“雷曼危机”蔓延到了对冲基金在传统金融中，当公司试图通过亏本出售某些资产来偿还债务时，就会发生清算。为了防止挤兑，Celsius周一宣布冻结提款，此举引发了市场担忧。在“货币危机”和“银行危机”之后，币圈的新危机蔓延到了对冲基金身上。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After the stablecoin UST and its sister token LUNA encountered a \"death stampede\" in mid-May, watching the currency circle ferment from a \"currency crisis\" to a \"banking crisis\", and then new crises followed-this time it was the turn of hedge funds.</p><p>Sources said that affected by the thunderstorms of cryptocurrencies LUNA and UST, as one of the largest hedge funds in the cryptocurrency market, Three Arrows Capital (Three Arrows Capital) may face bankruptcy after a large number of liquidations.</p><p>According to The Defiant, a decentralized finance (DeFi) news and information platform, on Tuesday local time, Dubai-based Three Arrows Capital liquidated approximately US $45 million in stETH, a type of Ethereum staked on the Ethereum beacon chain. (ETH), Three Arrows Capital has therefore become the largest token seller in the past week.</p><p>What worries investors even more is that according to The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>Three Arrows Capital's total liquidation on lending platforms such as Deribit and BlockFi may be as high as $400 million, it said.</p><p><b>If all is true, then Three Arrows Capital is likely to face bankruptcy.</b></p><p><b>The \"Lehman Crisis\" in the Currency Circle Spread to Hedge Funds</b></p><p>In traditional finance, liquidation occurs when a company tries to pay off its debts by selling certain assets at a loss. Whereas in the DeFi space, funds or protocols sell crypto assets to repay their debts.</p><p>As one of the largest hedge funds in the cryptocurrency market, Three Arrows Capital's investment portfolio once included tokens such as Avalanche, Solana, Polkadot and Terra, and is a \"top stream\" that cannot be ignored among hedge funds in the currency circle.</p><p>According to some media, the asset management scale of Sanjian Capital once reached 10 billion US dollars.</p><p>However, in the strong portfolio once owned by Three Arrows Capital, Terra is currently down to almost zero, Solana and Avalanche are down 77% and 90% respectively since their respective record highs, and the venture capital \"top stream\" seems to be in trouble.</p><p>Subsequently, a new tweet from Zhu Su, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, appeared to confirm these speculations and further raised concerns about potential ripple effects in the crypto lending market.</p><p>On Tuesday night local time, Zhu Su tweeted:</p><p>We are communicating with relevant parties and are committed to resolving this issue completely.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b708a7a29bccba67d263ac9fb182d7\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Crypto Market Crash: From 'Currency Crisis' to 'Banking Crisis'</b></p><p>Before investors discovered something was wrong with hedge funds, banks in the currency circle had already taken the lead in thunderstorms.</p><p><b>As the recent U.S. CPI data continues to rise beyond expectations and repeatedly refresh 40-year highs, the Federal Reserve has vowed to suppress high inflation, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to continue its aggressive rate hike.</b></p><p><b>Affected by this, global risk assets collectively plunged.</b></p><p>As the era of abundant liquidity is gone forever, cryptocurrency investors are \"shivering\", and the cryptocurrency market that once took advantage of the east wind is \"facing the cold winter.\"</p><p>Not only did Bitcoin, the largest market value, \"fall endlessly\", but the \"death stampede\" encountered by UST, the third largest stablecoin, and its sister token Luna, caused market shocks.</p><p>A previous article on Wall Street Journal mentioned that affected by the collapse of risky assets, the business of currency bank and crypto lending giant Celsius faced a critical blow.</p><p>In an effort to prevent a run, Celsius announced a withdrawal freeze on Monday, a move that sparked market concerns.</p><p><b>Investors fear that if Celsius is asked to cease operations, there will be a ripple effect on the dozens of DeFi projects, cryptocurrencies and other digital assets involved.</b></p><p>According to some media, Celsius' position in the industry should not be underestimated. The company claims to have 1.7 million users. The company had $11.8 billion worth of assets as of May 17.</p><p>In addition, investors are also worried about whether Celsius shareholder Tether Limited, the issuer of Tether, the world's largest stablecoin, will also be dragged into the water. You know, Tether exists like Lehman Brothers in the currency circle.</p><p>Tether, the largest operator in the $180 billion stablecoin space, plays a key role in facilitating transactions across the cryptocurrency market, and also provides links to the mainstream financial system, equivalent to the currency financial infrastructure.</p><p>On Monday, Tether tried to \"distance himself\" from Celsius in a blog post:</p><p>While Tether does include an investment in the company (Celsius) in its portfolio, it represents only a small portion of our shareholders' equity and there is no correlation between this investment and our own reserves or stability. In this regard, Saleuddin of encryption media company Blockworks said that due to the ambiguity of what Tether disclosed, it was impossible to know exactly how much risk Tether's assets were facing.</p><p><b>Will Three Arrows Capital be the latest domino to fall in the crypto bear market?</b></p><p>After the \"currency crisis\" and \"banking crisis\", a new crisis in the currency circle spread to hedge funds.</p><p>Cryptocurrency trader Moon Overlord noted that Celsius has not been the biggest seller of stETH over the past few days. He said:</p><p><b>Some people think that Celsius is the largest stETH dumper, but in fact, Three Arrows Capital is.</b>Three Arrows Capital is dumping the accounts and seed round investment addresses they own, most of which appear to be to pay off their debts and outstanding borrowings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78124b2fe0b2939c49760263db9c398f\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Furthermore, according to DeFi analyst DeFiyst, Three Arrows Capital's \"big sale\" of stETH began right after Terra's UST stablecoin crash in May this year, who noted:</p><p>The price of stETH relative to ETH briefly fell to 95 cents in May, and Three Arrows Capital withdrew 127,000 stETH from Curve, which was $246 million at the time. They had been operating frequently between AAVE and wstETH before the sell-off began this week. It is worth noting that stETH should be traded at a 1: 1 ratio with ETH, as the derivative token stETH can be exchanged for Ethereum once the mainnet merger occurs.</p><p>However, since June 9, the \"peg\" ratio has shown signs of decline, and once fell to 0.89.</p><p>As of press time on June 16, the stETH-to-ETH exchange ratio on Curve fell to 0.93, and the market cap of stETH has dropped to $4 billion from about $10 billion in early May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc497aa733d961bad25f176a45038cb\" tg-width=\"248\" tg-height=\"123\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to data from the on-chain data analysis platform Nansen, on Tuesday, Three Arrows Capital withdrew 80,000 stETH from the decentralized lending protocol Aave and exchanged 38,900 stETH in two transactions at a price difference of 5.6%-5.9% (approximately $45 million).</p><p>According to The Block, a $400 million position in Three Arrows Capital has been liquidated. In addition, cryptocurrency analyst Onchain Wizard also said that if the market continues to fall, another $300 million of Three Arrows Capital's positions in Aave and Compound will also face liquidation risks.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"Lehman crisis\" in the currency circle is fermenting, and now it's the turn of hedge funds!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"Lehman crisis\" in the currency circle is fermenting, and now it's the turn of hedge funds!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-16 14:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After the stablecoin UST and its sister token LUNA encountered a \"death stampede\" in mid-May, watching the currency circle ferment from a \"currency crisis\" to a \"banking crisis\", and then new crises followed-this time it was the turn of hedge funds.</p><p>Sources said that affected by the thunderstorms of cryptocurrencies LUNA and UST, as one of the largest hedge funds in the cryptocurrency market, Three Arrows Capital (Three Arrows Capital) may face bankruptcy after a large number of liquidations.</p><p>According to The Defiant, a decentralized finance (DeFi) news and information platform, on Tuesday local time, Dubai-based Three Arrows Capital liquidated approximately US $45 million in stETH, a type of Ethereum staked on the Ethereum beacon chain. (ETH), Three Arrows Capital has therefore become the largest token seller in the past week.</p><p>What worries investors even more is that according to The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>Three Arrows Capital's total liquidation on lending platforms such as Deribit and BlockFi may be as high as $400 million, it said.</p><p><b>If all is true, then Three Arrows Capital is likely to face bankruptcy.</b></p><p><b>The \"Lehman Crisis\" in the Currency Circle Spread to Hedge Funds</b></p><p>In traditional finance, liquidation occurs when a company tries to pay off its debts by selling certain assets at a loss. Whereas in the DeFi space, funds or protocols sell crypto assets to repay their debts.</p><p>As one of the largest hedge funds in the cryptocurrency market, Three Arrows Capital's investment portfolio once included tokens such as Avalanche, Solana, Polkadot and Terra, and is a \"top stream\" that cannot be ignored among hedge funds in the currency circle.</p><p>According to some media, the asset management scale of Sanjian Capital once reached 10 billion US dollars.</p><p>However, in the strong portfolio once owned by Three Arrows Capital, Terra is currently down to almost zero, Solana and Avalanche are down 77% and 90% respectively since their respective record highs, and the venture capital \"top stream\" seems to be in trouble.</p><p>Subsequently, a new tweet from Zhu Su, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, appeared to confirm these speculations and further raised concerns about potential ripple effects in the crypto lending market.</p><p>On Tuesday night local time, Zhu Su tweeted:</p><p>We are communicating with relevant parties and are committed to resolving this issue completely.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b708a7a29bccba67d263ac9fb182d7\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Crypto Market Crash: From 'Currency Crisis' to 'Banking Crisis'</b></p><p>Before investors discovered something was wrong with hedge funds, banks in the currency circle had already taken the lead in thunderstorms.</p><p><b>As the recent U.S. CPI data continues to rise beyond expectations and repeatedly refresh 40-year highs, the Federal Reserve has vowed to suppress high inflation, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to continue its aggressive rate hike.</b></p><p><b>Affected by this, global risk assets collectively plunged.</b></p><p>As the era of abundant liquidity is gone forever, cryptocurrency investors are \"shivering\", and the cryptocurrency market that once took advantage of the east wind is \"facing the cold winter.\"</p><p>Not only did Bitcoin, the largest market value, \"fall endlessly\", but the \"death stampede\" encountered by UST, the third largest stablecoin, and its sister token Luna, caused market shocks.</p><p>A previous article on Wall Street Journal mentioned that affected by the collapse of risky assets, the business of currency bank and crypto lending giant Celsius faced a critical blow.</p><p>In an effort to prevent a run, Celsius announced a withdrawal freeze on Monday, a move that sparked market concerns.</p><p><b>Investors fear that if Celsius is asked to cease operations, there will be a ripple effect on the dozens of DeFi projects, cryptocurrencies and other digital assets involved.</b></p><p>According to some media, Celsius' position in the industry should not be underestimated. The company claims to have 1.7 million users. The company had $11.8 billion worth of assets as of May 17.</p><p>In addition, investors are also worried about whether Celsius shareholder Tether Limited, the issuer of Tether, the world's largest stablecoin, will also be dragged into the water. You know, Tether exists like Lehman Brothers in the currency circle.</p><p>Tether, the largest operator in the $180 billion stablecoin space, plays a key role in facilitating transactions across the cryptocurrency market, and also provides links to the mainstream financial system, equivalent to the currency financial infrastructure.</p><p>On Monday, Tether tried to \"distance himself\" from Celsius in a blog post:</p><p>While Tether does include an investment in the company (Celsius) in its portfolio, it represents only a small portion of our shareholders' equity and there is no correlation between this investment and our own reserves or stability. In this regard, Saleuddin of encryption media company Blockworks said that due to the ambiguity of what Tether disclosed, it was impossible to know exactly how much risk Tether's assets were facing.</p><p><b>Will Three Arrows Capital be the latest domino to fall in the crypto bear market?</b></p><p>After the \"currency crisis\" and \"banking crisis\", a new crisis in the currency circle spread to hedge funds.</p><p>Cryptocurrency trader Moon Overlord noted that Celsius has not been the biggest seller of stETH over the past few days. He said:</p><p><b>Some people think that Celsius is the largest stETH dumper, but in fact, Three Arrows Capital is.</b>Three Arrows Capital is dumping the accounts and seed round investment addresses they own, most of which appear to be to pay off their debts and outstanding borrowings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78124b2fe0b2939c49760263db9c398f\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Furthermore, according to DeFi analyst DeFiyst, Three Arrows Capital's \"big sale\" of stETH began right after Terra's UST stablecoin crash in May this year, who noted:</p><p>The price of stETH relative to ETH briefly fell to 95 cents in May, and Three Arrows Capital withdrew 127,000 stETH from Curve, which was $246 million at the time. They had been operating frequently between AAVE and wstETH before the sell-off began this week. It is worth noting that stETH should be traded at a 1: 1 ratio with ETH, as the derivative token stETH can be exchanged for Ethereum once the mainnet merger occurs.</p><p>However, since June 9, the \"peg\" ratio has shown signs of decline, and once fell to 0.89.</p><p>As of press time on June 16, the stETH-to-ETH exchange ratio on Curve fell to 0.93, and the market cap of stETH has dropped to $4 billion from about $10 billion in early May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc497aa733d961bad25f176a45038cb\" tg-width=\"248\" tg-height=\"123\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to data from the on-chain data analysis platform Nansen, on Tuesday, Three Arrows Capital withdrew 80,000 stETH from the decentralized lending protocol Aave and exchanged 38,900 stETH in two transactions at a price difference of 5.6%-5.9% (approximately $45 million).</p><p>According to The Block, a $400 million position in Three Arrows Capital has been liquidated. In addition, cryptocurrency analyst Onchain Wizard also said that if the market continues to fall, another $300 million of Three Arrows Capital's positions in Aave and Compound will also face liquidation risks.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662147\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8de43451c68f57a0fdb81f66644722a","relate_stocks":{"BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4516":"特朗普概念","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4579":"人工智能",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TWTR":"Twitter","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4508":"社交媒体","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662147","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243974660","content_text":"继5月中旬稳定币UST和其姊妹代币LUNA遭遇了“死亡踩踏”之后，眼看着币圈从“货币危机”发酵到“银行危机”，随后新的危机接踵而至——这次轮到了对冲基金。有消息人士表示，受到加密货币LUNA和UST暴雷的影响，作为加密货币市场最大的对冲基金之一，三箭资本（Three Arrows Capital）可能将在大量清算后面临破产。据去中心化金融（DeFi）新闻资讯平台The Defiant称，当地时间周二，总部位于迪拜的三箭资本清算了大约4500万美元的stETH，这是一种质押在以太坊信标链上的以太坊（ETH），三箭资本也因此成为过去一周中最大的代币卖家。更令投资者担忧的是，据The Block称，三箭资本在Deribit和BlockFi等借贷平台的清算总额可能高达4亿美元。如果一切属实，那么三箭资本很可能即将面临破产。币圈“雷曼危机”蔓延到了对冲基金在传统金融中，当公司试图通过亏本出售某些资产来偿还债务时，就会发生清算。而在DeFi领域，基金或协议出售加密资产以偿还其债务。作为加密货币市场最大的对冲基金之一，三箭资本的投资组合曾包括Avalanche、Solana、Polkadot和Terra等代币，是币圈对冲基金中不可忽视的“顶流”。有媒体称，三箭资本资产管理规模一度达到100亿美元。然而，在三箭资本曾拥有的强大投资组合中，目前Terra几乎跌至零，Solana和Avalanche在各自创下历史新高以来分别下跌了77%和90%，风投“顶流”似乎陷入了困境。随后，三箭资本的联合创始人Zhu Su的新推文似乎证实了这些猜测，并进一步引发了人们对加密借贷市场潜在连锁反应的担忧。当地时间周二晚间，Zhu Su发表推文称：我们正在与相关方进行沟通，并致力于完全解决这个问题。加密货币市场崩盘：从“货币危机”到“银行危机”在投资者发现对冲基金不对劲之前，币圈银行就已经率先暴雷了。由于近期的美国CPI数据持续超预期上升，并一再刷新40年来新高，美联储发誓要按下高通胀，市场预期美联储将会持续激进加息。受此影响，全球风险资产集体跳水。随着流动性充裕的时代一去不复返，加密货币投资者“瑟瑟发抖”，曾经乘东风直上的加密货币市场“直面寒冬”。不仅第一大市值比特币“跌跌不休”，第三大稳定币UST和其姊妹代币Luna遭遇的“死亡踩踏”更是引发市场震动。华尔街见闻此前文章提及，受到风险资产崩盘的影响，币圈银行、加密借贷巨头Celsius的业务直面暴击。为了防止挤兑，Celsius周一宣布冻结提款，此举引发了市场担忧。投资者担心，如果Celsius被要求停止运营，那么相关数十个DeFi项目、加密货币和其他数字资产都将出现连锁反应。有媒体称，Celsius在业内地位不容小觑，该公司号称拥有170万用户。截至5月17日，该公司拥有价值118亿美元的资产。此外，投资者还担心，Celsius的股东Tether Limited——全球最大稳定币Tether的发行商是否也会被拖下水。要知道，Tether在币圈中是如雷曼兄弟一样的存在。Tether是价值1800亿美元的稳定币领域最大的运营商，在促进整个加密货币市场的交易方面发挥着关键作用，还提供了与主流金融系统的联系，相当于币圈金融基础设施。本周一，Tether在一篇博文中试图与Celsius“保持距离”：虽然在Tether的投资组合中确实包括对公司（Celsius）的投资，但只占我们股东权益的一小部分，这项投资与我们自己的储备或稳定性之间没有相关性。对此，加密媒体公司Blockworks的Saleuddin表示，由于Tether所披露的内容含糊不清，因此无法确切知道Tether的资产正在面临多大风险。三箭资本会是加密熊市中最新倒下的多米诺骨牌吗？在“货币危机”和“银行危机”之后，币圈的新危机蔓延到了对冲基金身上。加密货币交易员Moon Overlord指出，在过去几天中，Celsius并不是stETH的最大卖家。他表示：有人认为Celsius是最大的stETH倾销者，但是事实上，三箭资本才是。三箭资本正在倾销他们拥有的账户和种子轮投资地址，大多数看起来都是为了偿还他们的债务和未偿还的借款。此外，根据DeFi分析师DeFiyst的说法，三箭资本对stETH的“大甩卖”于今年5月Terra的UST稳定币崩盘之后就开始了，他指出：stETH相对于ETH的价格曾在5月份短暂跌至95美分，三箭资本从当时为2.46亿美元的Curve中提取了12.7万stETH。在本周开始抛售之前，他们一直在AAVE和wstETH之间频繁操作。值得注意的是，stETH应该与ETH以1:1的比例交易，因为一旦主网合并发生，衍生代币stETH就可以兑换为以太坊。然而，自从6月9日以来，该“挂钩”比例已经出现下滑迹象，并一度跌至0.89。6月16日截至发稿时，Curve上的stETH与ETH兑换比例跌至0.93，stETH的市值已从5月初的约100亿美元降至40亿美元。链上数据分析平台Nansen的数据显示，本周二，三箭资本从去中心化借贷协议Aave中提取了8万stETH，并在两笔交易中以5.6%-5.9%的价差兑换了3.89万stETH（约4500万美元）。据The Block称，三箭资本的4亿美元头寸已经被清算。此外，加密货币分析师Onchain Wizard还称，如果市场继续下跌，三箭资本在Aave和Compound的另外3亿美元头寸也将面临清算风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"TWTR":0.63,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QNETCN":0.6,"DJX":0.6,".IXIC":0.76,"DDM":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".DJI":0.62,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QLD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053345186,"gmtCreate":1654488169545,"gmtModify":1676535456403,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053345186","repostId":"1183072286","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053345308,"gmtCreate":1654488161804,"gmtModify":1676535456403,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053345308","repostId":"1183072286","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053342329,"gmtCreate":1654488025561,"gmtModify":1676535456388,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053342329","repostId":"1183072286","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067146434,"gmtCreate":1652431116528,"gmtModify":1676535099444,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067146434","repostId":"1136768096","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067146553,"gmtCreate":1652431109072,"gmtModify":1676535099436,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067146553","repostId":"1136768096","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9034562120,"gmtCreate":1647921593922,"gmtModify":1676534280555,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034562120","repostId":"2221476056","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221476056","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647919247,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221476056?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-22 11:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"CICC: Hong Kong stock market 2021 annual report performance preview","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221476056","media":"中金点睛","summary":"整体而言，我们目前维持从自上而下策略角度对2022年整个海外中资股盈利增长7.2%的预测","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The 2021 annual report performance of overseas Chinese stocks will enter the peak period in mid-to-late March. The performance disclosure of major Chinese concept stocks, consumption, healthcare and telecommunications sectors will be relatively high; Sectors such as finance, industry and energy are concentrated in the middle and late stages. Under the current turbulent market background, the quality of profits, especially the deviation from expectations, will have a greater impact on the subsequent market trend, especially related stocks. In this regard, we summarize the profitability of ~ 420 overseas Chinese stock companies covered by CICC based on the market and the forecasts of CICC industry analysts. The following information deserves attention.<b>Performance preview: double-digit growth for the whole year of 2021, but the growth rate will turn negative in the second half of the year; The upstream cycle is at the top and Internet consumption lags behind</b></p><p><b>1) Overall, overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC are expected to achieve double-digit growth throughout 2021; However, the growth was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and the growth rate turned negative in the second half of the year.</b>Based on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Industry analysts' forecasts for the covered stocks are denominated in RMB to exclude the impact of exchange rate factors. After we summarize them from bottom to top,<b>The 2021 full-year profits of more than 420 overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC are expected to increase by 16% year-on-year.</b>It has rebounded significantly from-3% in 2020, reflecting the recovery of the overall economy and corporate profits after the epidemic. However, this level is significantly slower than the 40% growth already realized in the first half of the year, implying that the growth rate will turn negative in the second half of the year. This is consistent with the macro background of the overall slowdown of China's economy from the second half of last year and the tightening of Internet supervision. Further excluding the impact of the epidemic, CICC industry analysts predict<b>The two-year compound growth rate of overseas Chinese stocks in 2021 is 6.3%, which is lower than the 17% year-on-year growth in 2019, and has not yet returned to pre-epidemic levels.</b>Looking at the breakdown, the growth rate of cyclical industries in 2021 will drop most significantly compared with the first half of the year. It is expected that the profit will drop from 131% in the first half of the year to 28% year-on-year, but it is still strong horizontally compared with other sectors. The performance of the defensive sector is also expected to decline, from 38% in the first half of the year to 24% in the whole year; The net profit of the financial sector is expected to decline slightly, from 11% in the first half of the year to 9% in the whole year.</p><p><b>2) In terms of industries, upstream raw materials, transportation, textiles and clothing, etc. have the highest growth rates, but the growth rates of Internet, catering, media entertainment, and offline consumption lag behind.</b>Driven by higher energy and some material prices, the upstream raw materials and energy sectors are expected to achieve growth of more than 150%. The transportation industry is also expected to grow in net profit at the top due to the common factors of shortage of transportation capacity and strong external demand. In contrast, sectors such as Internet retail and media entertainment, which experienced strong profit growth during the epidemic, are expected to experience negative growth in 2021, mainly dragged down by various factors such as the decline in domestic economic growth, strengthened supervision, and intensified industry competition. In addition, in 2021, the epidemic will continue to suppress the demand for catering, hotels, gambling, etc., and the profit growth of the offline consumption sector, which is greatly affected by the epidemic, will continue to be sluggish.</p><p><b>3) Compared with market expectations,</b>The 16% growth rate predicted by CICC industry analysts in 2021 is basically consistent with market expectations (17%). For 2022, the profit growth rate predicted by CICC industry analysts is flat at 16%, which is higher than the current market expectation of 13%. The main gap comes from expectations for the financial (insurance) and cyclical sectors, which is higher than the current market consensus expectation.</p><p><b>4) In terms of profit forecast and surprises,</b>Among the companies that have announced performance forecasts, most of the performance forecasts of raw materials, energy and real estate are positive, information technology and transportation are divided, and downstream consumption and public utilities are mostly negative. In terms of individual stocks whose performance deviates from expectations, CICC industry analysts believe that the performance of some energy, real estate, Internet games and software companies may be lower than expected.</p><p><b>Outlook: Steady growth and marginal decline in upstream prices will help to restore profits; Pay attention to the timing of policy efforts and the impact of supervision on some sectors</b></p><p>Although the full-year earnings of overseas Chinese stocks in 2021 rebounded from the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the recovery was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. Starting from the second half of the year, the pressure faced by the domestic economy has increased, coupled with the disturbance of various internal and external uncertainties, and the pressure on profitability has gradually increased. In this context,<b>MSCI China's earnings forecast continues to be lowered, which also reflects the market's relatively cautious expectation of domestic growth.</b></p><p>Looking forward, since the end of 2021, under the background of the gradual implementation of domestic policies to stabilize growth, continued monetary easing, and marginal decline in upstream prices,<b>We expect that profit growth is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound, which in turn will drive the recovery of corporate revenue and profits. However, the stabilization time may depend on the speed and intensity of subsequent efforts to stabilize growth, especially in the financial and real estate fields.</b>From the perspective of the internal structure of the sector, the fall or slowdown of upstream prices will ease the cost pressure in the middle and lower reaches and help the profit recovery of the middle and lower reaches consumer sectors. Judging from the adjustment changes of profit consensus expectations since the beginning of the year, the profit increase of the upstream (raw materials, energy) sector has slowed down significantly, and the profit reduction of the downstream sector has also narrowed significantly, with semiconductors and medical equipment leading the way. However, the profit prospects of the Internet sector may also need to comprehensively consider the subsequent evolution of regulatory policies. Overall,<b>We currently maintain our forecast for overseas Chinese stock earnings growth of 7.2% in 2022 from a top-down strategy perspective</b>(8.6% growth in non-financial sector and 5.9% growth in financial sector). After the full-year results are disclosed, we will re-examine whether it is necessary to further adjust the above profit expectations in combination with the latest profits and subsequent policy progress.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><h3>Disclosure time: mid-to-late March is the intensive disclosure period</h3>According to the forecast information provided by Bloomberg Information, the peak period of the 2021 annual report performance period of overseas Chinese stocks (Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong and the United States) will be in mid-to-late March, and about 75% of listed companies will release annual report performance in the last two weeks of March.</p><p>Judging from the disclosure progress of different sectors, we expect that the optional consumption, real estate and information technology sectors of overseas Chinese stocks will be the first to kick off the performance period. Communication service companies will start to publish annual reports intensively in mid-March, while the performance releases of industrial, energy and financial sectors will be more concentrated at the end of March.</p><p>In terms of individual stocks, Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States (such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Etc.) have announced their annual results for the fourth quarter of 2021 in early March, and some Hong Kong-listed companies with large market capitalization (such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601398\">Industrial Bank of China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFC\">China Life Insurance</a>Etc.) will announce its 2021 results in mid-to-late March, which deserves close attention.</p><p><b>Chart: The 2021 performance period kicks off in late February, and the peak period will be in mid-to-late March</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c874655a87c492454f82c0c54fe053\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SOURCE OF DATA Bloomberg, FactSet<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Industrial mainly releases results in the early stage, while optional consumer, financial and energy sectors are concentrated in the later stage</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/135bd0bb6369c34cc6b21ef679dd59e1\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Performance preview: Double-digit growth for the whole year of 2021, but the growth rate will turn negative in the second half of the year</b></p><p><b>Overall situation: double-digit growth throughout 2021, with a rhythm of first high and then low</b></p><p>In order to gain a better understanding of the earnings growth for the full year of 2021, we conducted an internal questionnaire survey on the views and forecasts of CICC industry analysts for approximately 421 overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC (including Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong and the United States), and summarized and analyzed from a bottom-up perspective. Although the sampling scope is limited to the samples covered by CICC, considering that the companies covered are leaders in various industries, it can basically reflect the overall performance of 2021.</p><p>The summary results of the bottom-up survey show that under a comparable caliber (stocks whose fiscal year is not ending in December or whose profit forecasts are not included in the statistical scope), and based on RMB calculations (so that the impact of exchange rate changes can be excluded), CICC covers The overall full-year profit of the overseas Chinese stock sample in 2021 is expected to increase by 16% year-on-year, slowing down from the 40% growth in the first half of 2021. Looking at the profit growth rate in the second half of the year alone, it may turn negative slightly (-2%), mainly due to the comprehensive impact of factors such as increasing economic growth and regulatory pressure, weak consumption growth, rising upstream raw material prices, and energy supply shortages. Excluding the epidemic base, CICC industry analysts predict that the compound growth rate of two-year net profit of overseas Chinese stock samples in 2021 will be 6.3%, which is still significantly lower than the 17% year-on-year growth rate in 2019. Looking forward to 2022, our summary shows that the overall earnings of the overseas Chinese stock sample covered by CICC in 2022 are expected to maintain a double-digit growth of 16%, which is about 3ppt higher than the market consensus expectation.</p><p><b>Chart: 2021 performance preview based on forecasts by CICC industry analysts and bottom-up summary (RMB caliber)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50530af5fb60f7cf894d171b2a782b36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research; Data as of March 5, 2022; Based on Bloomberg consensus expectations</p><p><b>Chart: Earnings growth of different categories of overseas Chinese stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/096aee1d55abc5b336cd0c410737ae77\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research; Bottom-up summary based on CICC industry analyst expectations</p><p>Looking further specifically, we find that the following aspects deserve attention:</p><p><b>► Profit growth rate of large sectors:</b>For the sample of overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC, based on the RMB caliber and the forecast of CICC industry analysts, CICC industry analysts predict that the net profit of cyclical industries in 2021 will increase by 28% year-on-year; Financial sector net profit increased by 9%; The performance of the defensive sector is expected to achieve a 24% growth. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Financial industry</b>(Banking, insurance and diversified finance) It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of net profit in 2021 under the RMB caliber will rebound from-14% in 2020 to 9%, but it will slow down from the 11% growth rate in the first half of the year. Among them, the insurance sector is the main drag. It is expected that the full-year net profit will fall by 1% year-on-year, but the decline will narrow from-7% in 2020. In comparison, the net profit of diversified finance is expected to increase by 31%, which is further improved from the 19% growth in 2020. CICC analysts expect the annual performance of the banking sector to increase by 10% year-on-year, which is significantly recovered from the negative growth of-1% in 2020.</p><p><b>2) Defensive industries</b>(telecommunications, utilities, healthcare and everyday consumption sectors) expects full-year earnings to grow 24%, a slowdown from the 38% growth in the first half. Among them, the slowdown in profit growth of the public utilities sector is expected to be more obvious.</p><p><b>3) Cyclical industries</b>Net profit rebounded strongly by 131% in the first half of 2021, but the growth rate is expected to slow down to 28% for the full year of 2021. In the second half of 2021, the overall economic growth rate will slow down. Under various factors such as the epidemic, supply chain bottlenecks, rising energy and shipping prices, and the implementation of regulatory policies, the overall profit growth rate of cyclical industries will decline significantly and differentiation will intensify. The upstream raw materials (metals and mining, coal, petrochemicals, etc.) and transportation sectors are expected to grow by more than 150% year-on-year in net profit in 2021. However, the growth rate of the online sector (Internet, e-commerce, etc.) turned negative sharply after the rapid growth in 2020. The real estate sector, which is greatly affected by the policy, is expected to decline by-6% year-on-year in net profit in 2021.</p><p><b>► Future growth trends:</b>In 2021, the overall performance growth rate of overseas Chinese stocks will show a trend of first high and then low. At the beginning of the year, the economy rebounded rapidly from the epidemic, but in the second half of the year, the growth slowed down significantly or even turned negative due to various internal and external factors. Judging from the two-year growth rate, the overall growth in 2021 is still weaker than the pre-epidemic level. Entering 2022, the tone of domestic policies to stabilize growth has been confirmed, and the overall economic growth rate may also gradually recover, driving the profit growth rate of Chinese-funded enterprises to rebound. CICC industry analysts predict that the earnings of overseas Chinese stocks in 2022 will be the same as those in 2021 (16% growth rate). The growth rate of the financial sector is expected to rise from 9% in 2021 to 11%, the growth rate of the cyclical sector is expected to decline from 28% to 21%, and the growth rate of the defensive sector is expected to decline from 24% to 21%.</p><p><b>► Compare market expectations:</b>The 2021 forecast of CICC industry analysts is close to the market consensus expectation. For 2021, the profit growth rate (16%) based on the forecast of CICC industry analysts is slightly lower than the market expectation (17%), of which finance is slightly higher (CICC expects 9% vs. market consensus expectation 8%), while cyclical and Defensive are both slightly lower (CICC industry analysts expect cyclical and defensive industries to achieve positive growth of 28.4% and 23.7% respectively, both slightly lower than market expectations of 31.0% and 23.8%).</p><p><b>In terms of sectors: chemicals, transportation, metals, textiles and clothing, coal, and oil and gas have the highest growth rates; Internet, catering, media and real estate lag behind</b></p><p>The upstream raw materials and chemical sectors (such as chemicals, metals, coal, oil and gas, etc.) are expected to have a high performance growth rate in 2021. This is partly due to the low base in 2020, but the more critical factors behind it are the global economic rebound and the rapid rise in raw material prices due to constrained energy supply, which boosted the profit margins of the sector. Similarly, under the combined effect of the impact of the global supply chain and the rebound of overseas demand, the sharp rise in shipping prices has driven the net profit growth rate of the transportation sector to rise sharply. In addition, driven by new consumer trends such as the rise of domestic products, textiles and clothing are expected to achieve strong net profit growth in 2021.</p><p>On the contrary, the Internet sector, which has been less affected by the epidemic, is expected to fall back after the rapid growth in 2020. The net profit growth rate of the Internet retail and media sector in 2021 is expected to decline from 252% and 102% in 2020 to-151% and-12%. For the online sector, 2021 will face multiple obstacles such as a high base, economic slowdown, increased regulatory pressure and intensified industry competition. Overall domestic online consumption growth has also slowed down, unlike other markets around the world. At the same time, affected by policy constraints, the profit growth rate of the real estate sector is also expected to decline, from 6% growth in 2020 to-6% in 2021. The profit growth rate of catering, hotels, gambling and other sectors, which have been greatly affected by repeated domestic epidemics, continues to be sluggish.</p><p>Looking forward to 2022, as domestic policies further exert efforts to stabilize growth, we believe that economic growth is also expected to gradually pick up in the second half of the year. CICC industry analysts predict that the profit growth rate of some upstream sectors (chemicals, metals, etc.) and transportation sectors is expected to decline, but still maintain relatively high growth; Some midstream and downstream sectors, such as automobiles and staple consumption, are also expected to pick up driven by economic growth; The Internet sector is expected to stabilize after a sharp drop in earnings in 2021.</p><p><b>Chart: The profit growth of the upstream raw materials and transportation sectors is expected to be high in 2021, and the performance of the consumer Internet is flat</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95890cb1fce4b51a84ece4d508166da\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: CICC industry analysts expect most industries to return to positive growth in 2022</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/050470cd569b8e6949557c6abadfd708\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><h3>Performance forecast: obvious differentiation between upstream, middle and lower levels</h3>Hong Kong-listed companies focused on disclosing their 2021 performance in mid-to-late March, but according to Wind Data summary statistics, as of March 2, 2022, 394 Hong Kong-listed companies have announced performance forecasts. From this, we can predict the profitability of some industries in advance. In the second half of 2021, boosted by the sharp rise in global raw material prices, the performance of upstream companies in Hong Kong stocks continued to improve, while the profit margins of the midstream and downstream sectors were squeezed. Among the companies that have announced performance forecasts, the proportion of companies with positive forecasts in the raw materials and energy sectors is as high as 74% and 73%. Comparatively speaking, the performance forecasts of midstream and downstream sectors such as daily consumption and public utilities are mostly negative.</p><p><b>► Raw materials</b>Many leading metal mining companies in the sector are expected to achieve profit growth of more than 100% in 2021, mainly benefiting from factors such as stronger downstream demand driven by domestic and overseas economic recovery, as well as low base of raw material prices in 2020.</p><p><b>► energy</b>The overall performance of the sector benefited from the rebound of energy prices, among which crude oil and coal prices rose rapidly under the combined influence of supply constraints and the rebound of global demand.</p><p><b>► Transportation</b>The profit differentiation of the sector in 2021 is obvious. Driven by high shipping prices, shipping leaders are expected to achieve higher profit growth rates. In comparison, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, air transport performance continues to be sluggish.</p><p><b>► Public utility</b>Among the sectors, the overall performance of the thermal power sector in 2021 will be under pressure due to the impact of high coal prices, and many companies will turn from profit to loss.</p><p><b>► Information Technology</b>The internal differentiation of sector profits is obvious. The profit growth rate of the semiconductor industry has risen sharply. The overall performance of the software service sector is under pressure, with 61% of companies' performance forecasts being negative.</p><p><b>► Optional consumption</b>The overall sector performance forecast is neutral. The proportions of companies with positive performance announcements in the retail, automobile, and durable goods and clothing sub-sectors were 63%, 56%, and 43% respectively. Under the influence of repeated epidemics and the implementation of the double reduction policy in the education sector, the proportion of positive companies in the consumer service sub-sector is only 35%.</p><p>We analyze the stock price before and after the release date of the performance forecast. We found that it outperformed the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by an average of 0.3 ppt within 3 days before the release of the positive forecast (outperforming probability of 44.4%), and underperformed by an average of 1.8 ppt within 3 days after the release (outperforming probability of 41.7%). On the other hand, the release of negative performance forecasts may drag down the stock price performance, causing the stock price to underperform the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by an average of 0.9 ppt within the three days after the announcement (underperform probability of 38.5%).</p><p><b>Chart: Summary of profit forecasts for secondary industries in Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fffb47feb4bd406a7e0463843344851b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: List of performance forecasts of H-share listed companies with market capitalization above US $5 billion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d2f2acd6f54765b9e8b6887447397b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, Wind Information, CICC Research; Data as of March 2, 2022; Based on Bloomberg consensus expectations</p><p><b>Earnings Surprise: A Summary of CICC Industry Analysts' Views</b></p><p>Based on the internal investigation of CICC industry analysts, we have compiled a list of stocks whose future performance our industry analysts believe may exceed or lower than expectations from a bottom-up perspective. For details, please refer to the original report published by CICC. We advise investors to pay close attention to the above stocks during the annual report period and the possible impact on the stock price if the performance exceeds or falls short of expectations.</p><p><b>Outlook: Steady growth will help to repair profits; Industry differentiation is expected to converge</b></p><p>In 2021, China's economy will be the first to emerge from the impact of the epidemic, but its growth rate will slow down significantly in the second half of the year due to external shocks and internal structural factors. The overall growth of overseas Chinese stocks was high at first and then low, and the differentiation intensified. Although it is expected to achieve a rapid growth of nearly 16% throughout 2021, it is still lower than the pre-epidemic level after smoothing out the impact of the epidemic base. Looking forward,</p><p><b>► Although China's economic growth is still facing greater pressure, the income side is expected to gradually stabilize with further policy efforts.</b>It is not difficult to see from the adjustment range of the market's consensus expectations that the profit expectations of Chinese-funded enterprises have continued to be lowered since the beginning of 2021, which reflects the pessimistic expectations of a slowdown in overall economic growth. However, the domestic policy of \"steady growth\" is gradually exerting its strength. After the central bank lowered the bank deposit reserve ratio and benchmark interest rate several times since the second half of 2021, macro data also picked up significantly in February. The 2022 government work report of the two sessions set an economic growth target of 5.5%, further confirming the policy's determination to \"stabilize growth.\" Future fiscal policy and infrastructure investment are also worthy of attention. We believe that although the market is still facing the pressure of downward revision of profits, with the recovery of domestic growth, the income side of Chinese-funded enterprises is expected to return to normal.<b>However, the time of stabilization may depend on the speed and intensity of subsequent efforts to stabilize growth, especially in fiscal stimulus and local fields.</b>In addition, the profit prospects of the Internet sector may have to comprehensively consider the subsequent evolution of regulatory policies.</p><p><b>► The fall in the PPI-CPI scissors gap has boosted the rebound of downstream profit margins.</b>In the second half of 2021, the price of raw materials rose sharply, pushing the PPI-CPI scissors gap to a historical high, and the differentiation between the growth rate of upstream raw materials/transportation and midstream and downstream consumption performance intensified. Since the end of 2021, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has gradually taken effect, and the prices of upstream raw materials have peaked and fallen. We believe that the gradual narrowing of the PPI-CPI scissors gap is expected to alleviate the cost pressure faced by midstream and downstream enterprises. The profit margins of the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors may also gradually converge. From the perspective of market consensus expectations, the consensus profit expectations of upstream sectors (such as energy, raw materials, etc.) have been raised by only about 1% on average since the beginning of the year, while the consensus profit expectations of midstream sectors (medical equipment, semiconductors, etc.) have been raised by 13% on average. The downstream profit reduction has also slowed down significantly (-3%). However, external uncertainties remain worthy of attention. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen again, which may affect our judgment to a certain extent. Overall, we believe that the impact of external factors may have limited impact on China's domestic fundamentals.</p><p>As noted in our 2022 outlook report, we currently maintain our forecast of 7.2% year-on-year earnings growth for overseas Chinese stocks in 2021, with net income growth of 8.6% for the non-financial sector and growth of 5.9% for the financial sector. After the full-year results are disclosed, we will review whether further adjustments are needed in light of the latest situation.</p><p><b>Chart: The gradual stabilization of economic growth will promote the overall improvement of the income of Chinese-funded enterprises</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/555cac30a1d887f4899330123fedd18b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Wind Information, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Year-to-date, the consensus profit forecast for the middle and upstream sectors has still been raised, but the downstream downward adjustment has narrowed</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d79b50884b078eae0073ff283936fb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: Hong Kong stock market 2021 annual report performance preview</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: Hong Kong stock market 2021 annual report performance preview\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中金点睛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-22 11:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The 2021 annual report performance of overseas Chinese stocks will enter the peak period in mid-to-late March. The performance disclosure of major Chinese concept stocks, consumption, healthcare and telecommunications sectors will be relatively high; Sectors such as finance, industry and energy are concentrated in the middle and late stages. Under the current turbulent market background, the quality of profits, especially the deviation from expectations, will have a greater impact on the subsequent market trend, especially related stocks. In this regard, we summarize the profitability of ~ 420 overseas Chinese stock companies covered by CICC based on the market and the forecasts of CICC industry analysts. The following information deserves attention.<b>Performance preview: double-digit growth for the whole year of 2021, but the growth rate will turn negative in the second half of the year; The upstream cycle is at the top and Internet consumption lags behind</b></p><p><b>1) Overall, overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC are expected to achieve double-digit growth throughout 2021; However, the growth was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and the growth rate turned negative in the second half of the year.</b>Based on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Industry analysts' forecasts for the covered stocks are denominated in RMB to exclude the impact of exchange rate factors. After we summarize them from bottom to top,<b>The 2021 full-year profits of more than 420 overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC are expected to increase by 16% year-on-year.</b>It has rebounded significantly from-3% in 2020, reflecting the recovery of the overall economy and corporate profits after the epidemic. However, this level is significantly slower than the 40% growth already realized in the first half of the year, implying that the growth rate will turn negative in the second half of the year. This is consistent with the macro background of the overall slowdown of China's economy from the second half of last year and the tightening of Internet supervision. Further excluding the impact of the epidemic, CICC industry analysts predict<b>The two-year compound growth rate of overseas Chinese stocks in 2021 is 6.3%, which is lower than the 17% year-on-year growth in 2019, and has not yet returned to pre-epidemic levels.</b>Looking at the breakdown, the growth rate of cyclical industries in 2021 will drop most significantly compared with the first half of the year. It is expected that the profit will drop from 131% in the first half of the year to 28% year-on-year, but it is still strong horizontally compared with other sectors. The performance of the defensive sector is also expected to decline, from 38% in the first half of the year to 24% in the whole year; The net profit of the financial sector is expected to decline slightly, from 11% in the first half of the year to 9% in the whole year.</p><p><b>2) In terms of industries, upstream raw materials, transportation, textiles and clothing, etc. have the highest growth rates, but the growth rates of Internet, catering, media entertainment, and offline consumption lag behind.</b>Driven by higher energy and some material prices, the upstream raw materials and energy sectors are expected to achieve growth of more than 150%. The transportation industry is also expected to grow in net profit at the top due to the common factors of shortage of transportation capacity and strong external demand. In contrast, sectors such as Internet retail and media entertainment, which experienced strong profit growth during the epidemic, are expected to experience negative growth in 2021, mainly dragged down by various factors such as the decline in domestic economic growth, strengthened supervision, and intensified industry competition. In addition, in 2021, the epidemic will continue to suppress the demand for catering, hotels, gambling, etc., and the profit growth of the offline consumption sector, which is greatly affected by the epidemic, will continue to be sluggish.</p><p><b>3) Compared with market expectations,</b>The 16% growth rate predicted by CICC industry analysts in 2021 is basically consistent with market expectations (17%). For 2022, the profit growth rate predicted by CICC industry analysts is flat at 16%, which is higher than the current market expectation of 13%. The main gap comes from expectations for the financial (insurance) and cyclical sectors, which is higher than the current market consensus expectation.</p><p><b>4) In terms of profit forecast and surprises,</b>Among the companies that have announced performance forecasts, most of the performance forecasts of raw materials, energy and real estate are positive, information technology and transportation are divided, and downstream consumption and public utilities are mostly negative. In terms of individual stocks whose performance deviates from expectations, CICC industry analysts believe that the performance of some energy, real estate, Internet games and software companies may be lower than expected.</p><p><b>Outlook: Steady growth and marginal decline in upstream prices will help to restore profits; Pay attention to the timing of policy efforts and the impact of supervision on some sectors</b></p><p>Although the full-year earnings of overseas Chinese stocks in 2021 rebounded from the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the recovery was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. Starting from the second half of the year, the pressure faced by the domestic economy has increased, coupled with the disturbance of various internal and external uncertainties, and the pressure on profitability has gradually increased. In this context,<b>MSCI China's earnings forecast continues to be lowered, which also reflects the market's relatively cautious expectation of domestic growth.</b></p><p>Looking forward, since the end of 2021, under the background of the gradual implementation of domestic policies to stabilize growth, continued monetary easing, and marginal decline in upstream prices,<b>We expect that profit growth is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound, which in turn will drive the recovery of corporate revenue and profits. However, the stabilization time may depend on the speed and intensity of subsequent efforts to stabilize growth, especially in the financial and real estate fields.</b>From the perspective of the internal structure of the sector, the fall or slowdown of upstream prices will ease the cost pressure in the middle and lower reaches and help the profit recovery of the middle and lower reaches consumer sectors. Judging from the adjustment changes of profit consensus expectations since the beginning of the year, the profit increase of the upstream (raw materials, energy) sector has slowed down significantly, and the profit reduction of the downstream sector has also narrowed significantly, with semiconductors and medical equipment leading the way. However, the profit prospects of the Internet sector may also need to comprehensively consider the subsequent evolution of regulatory policies. Overall,<b>We currently maintain our forecast for overseas Chinese stock earnings growth of 7.2% in 2022 from a top-down strategy perspective</b>(8.6% growth in non-financial sector and 5.9% growth in financial sector). After the full-year results are disclosed, we will re-examine whether it is necessary to further adjust the above profit expectations in combination with the latest profits and subsequent policy progress.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><h3>Disclosure time: mid-to-late March is the intensive disclosure period</h3>According to the forecast information provided by Bloomberg Information, the peak period of the 2021 annual report performance period of overseas Chinese stocks (Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong and the United States) will be in mid-to-late March, and about 75% of listed companies will release annual report performance in the last two weeks of March.</p><p>Judging from the disclosure progress of different sectors, we expect that the optional consumption, real estate and information technology sectors of overseas Chinese stocks will be the first to kick off the performance period. Communication service companies will start to publish annual reports intensively in mid-March, while the performance releases of industrial, energy and financial sectors will be more concentrated at the end of March.</p><p>In terms of individual stocks, Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States (such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Etc.) have announced their annual results for the fourth quarter of 2021 in early March, and some Hong Kong-listed companies with large market capitalization (such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601398\">Industrial Bank of China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFC\">China Life Insurance</a>Etc.) will announce its 2021 results in mid-to-late March, which deserves close attention.</p><p><b>Chart: The 2021 performance period kicks off in late February, and the peak period will be in mid-to-late March</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c874655a87c492454f82c0c54fe053\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SOURCE OF DATA Bloomberg, FactSet<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Industrial mainly releases results in the early stage, while optional consumer, financial and energy sectors are concentrated in the later stage</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/135bd0bb6369c34cc6b21ef679dd59e1\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Performance preview: Double-digit growth for the whole year of 2021, but the growth rate will turn negative in the second half of the year</b></p><p><b>Overall situation: double-digit growth throughout 2021, with a rhythm of first high and then low</b></p><p>In order to gain a better understanding of the earnings growth for the full year of 2021, we conducted an internal questionnaire survey on the views and forecasts of CICC industry analysts for approximately 421 overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC (including Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong and the United States), and summarized and analyzed from a bottom-up perspective. Although the sampling scope is limited to the samples covered by CICC, considering that the companies covered are leaders in various industries, it can basically reflect the overall performance of 2021.</p><p>The summary results of the bottom-up survey show that under a comparable caliber (stocks whose fiscal year is not ending in December or whose profit forecasts are not included in the statistical scope), and based on RMB calculations (so that the impact of exchange rate changes can be excluded), CICC covers The overall full-year profit of the overseas Chinese stock sample in 2021 is expected to increase by 16% year-on-year, slowing down from the 40% growth in the first half of 2021. Looking at the profit growth rate in the second half of the year alone, it may turn negative slightly (-2%), mainly due to the comprehensive impact of factors such as increasing economic growth and regulatory pressure, weak consumption growth, rising upstream raw material prices, and energy supply shortages. Excluding the epidemic base, CICC industry analysts predict that the compound growth rate of two-year net profit of overseas Chinese stock samples in 2021 will be 6.3%, which is still significantly lower than the 17% year-on-year growth rate in 2019. Looking forward to 2022, our summary shows that the overall earnings of the overseas Chinese stock sample covered by CICC in 2022 are expected to maintain a double-digit growth of 16%, which is about 3ppt higher than the market consensus expectation.</p><p><b>Chart: 2021 performance preview based on forecasts by CICC industry analysts and bottom-up summary (RMB caliber)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50530af5fb60f7cf894d171b2a782b36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research; Data as of March 5, 2022; Based on Bloomberg consensus expectations</p><p><b>Chart: Earnings growth of different categories of overseas Chinese stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/096aee1d55abc5b336cd0c410737ae77\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research; Bottom-up summary based on CICC industry analyst expectations</p><p>Looking further specifically, we find that the following aspects deserve attention:</p><p><b>► Profit growth rate of large sectors:</b>For the sample of overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC, based on the RMB caliber and the forecast of CICC industry analysts, CICC industry analysts predict that the net profit of cyclical industries in 2021 will increase by 28% year-on-year; Financial sector net profit increased by 9%; The performance of the defensive sector is expected to achieve a 24% growth. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Financial industry</b>(Banking, insurance and diversified finance) It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of net profit in 2021 under the RMB caliber will rebound from-14% in 2020 to 9%, but it will slow down from the 11% growth rate in the first half of the year. Among them, the insurance sector is the main drag. It is expected that the full-year net profit will fall by 1% year-on-year, but the decline will narrow from-7% in 2020. In comparison, the net profit of diversified finance is expected to increase by 31%, which is further improved from the 19% growth in 2020. CICC analysts expect the annual performance of the banking sector to increase by 10% year-on-year, which is significantly recovered from the negative growth of-1% in 2020.</p><p><b>2) Defensive industries</b>(telecommunications, utilities, healthcare and everyday consumption sectors) expects full-year earnings to grow 24%, a slowdown from the 38% growth in the first half. Among them, the slowdown in profit growth of the public utilities sector is expected to be more obvious.</p><p><b>3) Cyclical industries</b>Net profit rebounded strongly by 131% in the first half of 2021, but the growth rate is expected to slow down to 28% for the full year of 2021. In the second half of 2021, the overall economic growth rate will slow down. Under various factors such as the epidemic, supply chain bottlenecks, rising energy and shipping prices, and the implementation of regulatory policies, the overall profit growth rate of cyclical industries will decline significantly and differentiation will intensify. The upstream raw materials (metals and mining, coal, petrochemicals, etc.) and transportation sectors are expected to grow by more than 150% year-on-year in net profit in 2021. However, the growth rate of the online sector (Internet, e-commerce, etc.) turned negative sharply after the rapid growth in 2020. The real estate sector, which is greatly affected by the policy, is expected to decline by-6% year-on-year in net profit in 2021.</p><p><b>► Future growth trends:</b>In 2021, the overall performance growth rate of overseas Chinese stocks will show a trend of first high and then low. At the beginning of the year, the economy rebounded rapidly from the epidemic, but in the second half of the year, the growth slowed down significantly or even turned negative due to various internal and external factors. Judging from the two-year growth rate, the overall growth in 2021 is still weaker than the pre-epidemic level. Entering 2022, the tone of domestic policies to stabilize growth has been confirmed, and the overall economic growth rate may also gradually recover, driving the profit growth rate of Chinese-funded enterprises to rebound. CICC industry analysts predict that the earnings of overseas Chinese stocks in 2022 will be the same as those in 2021 (16% growth rate). The growth rate of the financial sector is expected to rise from 9% in 2021 to 11%, the growth rate of the cyclical sector is expected to decline from 28% to 21%, and the growth rate of the defensive sector is expected to decline from 24% to 21%.</p><p><b>► Compare market expectations:</b>The 2021 forecast of CICC industry analysts is close to the market consensus expectation. For 2021, the profit growth rate (16%) based on the forecast of CICC industry analysts is slightly lower than the market expectation (17%), of which finance is slightly higher (CICC expects 9% vs. market consensus expectation 8%), while cyclical and Defensive are both slightly lower (CICC industry analysts expect cyclical and defensive industries to achieve positive growth of 28.4% and 23.7% respectively, both slightly lower than market expectations of 31.0% and 23.8%).</p><p><b>In terms of sectors: chemicals, transportation, metals, textiles and clothing, coal, and oil and gas have the highest growth rates; Internet, catering, media and real estate lag behind</b></p><p>The upstream raw materials and chemical sectors (such as chemicals, metals, coal, oil and gas, etc.) are expected to have a high performance growth rate in 2021. This is partly due to the low base in 2020, but the more critical factors behind it are the global economic rebound and the rapid rise in raw material prices due to constrained energy supply, which boosted the profit margins of the sector. Similarly, under the combined effect of the impact of the global supply chain and the rebound of overseas demand, the sharp rise in shipping prices has driven the net profit growth rate of the transportation sector to rise sharply. In addition, driven by new consumer trends such as the rise of domestic products, textiles and clothing are expected to achieve strong net profit growth in 2021.</p><p>On the contrary, the Internet sector, which has been less affected by the epidemic, is expected to fall back after the rapid growth in 2020. The net profit growth rate of the Internet retail and media sector in 2021 is expected to decline from 252% and 102% in 2020 to-151% and-12%. For the online sector, 2021 will face multiple obstacles such as a high base, economic slowdown, increased regulatory pressure and intensified industry competition. Overall domestic online consumption growth has also slowed down, unlike other markets around the world. At the same time, affected by policy constraints, the profit growth rate of the real estate sector is also expected to decline, from 6% growth in 2020 to-6% in 2021. The profit growth rate of catering, hotels, gambling and other sectors, which have been greatly affected by repeated domestic epidemics, continues to be sluggish.</p><p>Looking forward to 2022, as domestic policies further exert efforts to stabilize growth, we believe that economic growth is also expected to gradually pick up in the second half of the year. CICC industry analysts predict that the profit growth rate of some upstream sectors (chemicals, metals, etc.) and transportation sectors is expected to decline, but still maintain relatively high growth; Some midstream and downstream sectors, such as automobiles and staple consumption, are also expected to pick up driven by economic growth; The Internet sector is expected to stabilize after a sharp drop in earnings in 2021.</p><p><b>Chart: The profit growth of the upstream raw materials and transportation sectors is expected to be high in 2021, and the performance of the consumer Internet is flat</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95890cb1fce4b51a84ece4d508166da\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: CICC industry analysts expect most industries to return to positive growth in 2022</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/050470cd569b8e6949557c6abadfd708\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><h3>Performance forecast: obvious differentiation between upstream, middle and lower levels</h3>Hong Kong-listed companies focused on disclosing their 2021 performance in mid-to-late March, but according to Wind Data summary statistics, as of March 2, 2022, 394 Hong Kong-listed companies have announced performance forecasts. From this, we can predict the profitability of some industries in advance. In the second half of 2021, boosted by the sharp rise in global raw material prices, the performance of upstream companies in Hong Kong stocks continued to improve, while the profit margins of the midstream and downstream sectors were squeezed. Among the companies that have announced performance forecasts, the proportion of companies with positive forecasts in the raw materials and energy sectors is as high as 74% and 73%. Comparatively speaking, the performance forecasts of midstream and downstream sectors such as daily consumption and public utilities are mostly negative.</p><p><b>► Raw materials</b>Many leading metal mining companies in the sector are expected to achieve profit growth of more than 100% in 2021, mainly benefiting from factors such as stronger downstream demand driven by domestic and overseas economic recovery, as well as low base of raw material prices in 2020.</p><p><b>► energy</b>The overall performance of the sector benefited from the rebound of energy prices, among which crude oil and coal prices rose rapidly under the combined influence of supply constraints and the rebound of global demand.</p><p><b>► Transportation</b>The profit differentiation of the sector in 2021 is obvious. Driven by high shipping prices, shipping leaders are expected to achieve higher profit growth rates. In comparison, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, air transport performance continues to be sluggish.</p><p><b>► Public utility</b>Among the sectors, the overall performance of the thermal power sector in 2021 will be under pressure due to the impact of high coal prices, and many companies will turn from profit to loss.</p><p><b>► Information Technology</b>The internal differentiation of sector profits is obvious. The profit growth rate of the semiconductor industry has risen sharply. The overall performance of the software service sector is under pressure, with 61% of companies' performance forecasts being negative.</p><p><b>► Optional consumption</b>The overall sector performance forecast is neutral. The proportions of companies with positive performance announcements in the retail, automobile, and durable goods and clothing sub-sectors were 63%, 56%, and 43% respectively. Under the influence of repeated epidemics and the implementation of the double reduction policy in the education sector, the proportion of positive companies in the consumer service sub-sector is only 35%.</p><p>We analyze the stock price before and after the release date of the performance forecast. We found that it outperformed the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by an average of 0.3 ppt within 3 days before the release of the positive forecast (outperforming probability of 44.4%), and underperformed by an average of 1.8 ppt within 3 days after the release (outperforming probability of 41.7%). On the other hand, the release of negative performance forecasts may drag down the stock price performance, causing the stock price to underperform the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by an average of 0.9 ppt within the three days after the announcement (underperform probability of 38.5%).</p><p><b>Chart: Summary of profit forecasts for secondary industries in Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fffb47feb4bd406a7e0463843344851b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: List of performance forecasts of H-share listed companies with market capitalization above US $5 billion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d2f2acd6f54765b9e8b6887447397b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, Wind Information, CICC Research; Data as of March 2, 2022; Based on Bloomberg consensus expectations</p><p><b>Earnings Surprise: A Summary of CICC Industry Analysts' Views</b></p><p>Based on the internal investigation of CICC industry analysts, we have compiled a list of stocks whose future performance our industry analysts believe may exceed or lower than expectations from a bottom-up perspective. For details, please refer to the original report published by CICC. We advise investors to pay close attention to the above stocks during the annual report period and the possible impact on the stock price if the performance exceeds or falls short of expectations.</p><p><b>Outlook: Steady growth will help to repair profits; Industry differentiation is expected to converge</b></p><p>In 2021, China's economy will be the first to emerge from the impact of the epidemic, but its growth rate will slow down significantly in the second half of the year due to external shocks and internal structural factors. The overall growth of overseas Chinese stocks was high at first and then low, and the differentiation intensified. Although it is expected to achieve a rapid growth of nearly 16% throughout 2021, it is still lower than the pre-epidemic level after smoothing out the impact of the epidemic base. Looking forward,</p><p><b>► Although China's economic growth is still facing greater pressure, the income side is expected to gradually stabilize with further policy efforts.</b>It is not difficult to see from the adjustment range of the market's consensus expectations that the profit expectations of Chinese-funded enterprises have continued to be lowered since the beginning of 2021, which reflects the pessimistic expectations of a slowdown in overall economic growth. However, the domestic policy of \"steady growth\" is gradually exerting its strength. After the central bank lowered the bank deposit reserve ratio and benchmark interest rate several times since the second half of 2021, macro data also picked up significantly in February. The 2022 government work report of the two sessions set an economic growth target of 5.5%, further confirming the policy's determination to \"stabilize growth.\" Future fiscal policy and infrastructure investment are also worthy of attention. We believe that although the market is still facing the pressure of downward revision of profits, with the recovery of domestic growth, the income side of Chinese-funded enterprises is expected to return to normal.<b>However, the time of stabilization may depend on the speed and intensity of subsequent efforts to stabilize growth, especially in fiscal stimulus and local fields.</b>In addition, the profit prospects of the Internet sector may have to comprehensively consider the subsequent evolution of regulatory policies.</p><p><b>► The fall in the PPI-CPI scissors gap has boosted the rebound of downstream profit margins.</b>In the second half of 2021, the price of raw materials rose sharply, pushing the PPI-CPI scissors gap to a historical high, and the differentiation between the growth rate of upstream raw materials/transportation and midstream and downstream consumption performance intensified. Since the end of 2021, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has gradually taken effect, and the prices of upstream raw materials have peaked and fallen. We believe that the gradual narrowing of the PPI-CPI scissors gap is expected to alleviate the cost pressure faced by midstream and downstream enterprises. The profit margins of the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors may also gradually converge. From the perspective of market consensus expectations, the consensus profit expectations of upstream sectors (such as energy, raw materials, etc.) have been raised by only about 1% on average since the beginning of the year, while the consensus profit expectations of midstream sectors (medical equipment, semiconductors, etc.) have been raised by 13% on average. The downstream profit reduction has also slowed down significantly (-3%). However, external uncertainties remain worthy of attention. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen again, which may affect our judgment to a certain extent. Overall, we believe that the impact of external factors may have limited impact on China's domestic fundamentals.</p><p>As noted in our 2022 outlook report, we currently maintain our forecast of 7.2% year-on-year earnings growth for overseas Chinese stocks in 2021, with net income growth of 8.6% for the non-financial sector and growth of 5.9% for the financial sector. After the full-year results are disclosed, we will review whether further adjustments are needed in light of the latest situation.</p><p><b>Chart: The gradual stabilization of economic growth will promote the overall improvement of the income of Chinese-funded enterprises</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/555cac30a1d887f4899330123fedd18b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Wind Information, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Year-to-date, the consensus profit forecast for the middle and upstream sectors has still been raised, but the downstream downward adjustment has narrowed</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d79b50884b078eae0073ff283936fb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/516537\">中金点睛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cf777090175126e4590c3b8afdfe41e","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","BK1132":"食品零售","BK1148":"建筑与工程","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/516537","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2221476056","content_text":"海外中资股2021年年报业绩将于3月中下旬进入高峰期。主要中概股、消费、医疗保健和电信等板块业绩披露将相对靠前；金融、工业和能源等板块集中在中后期。当前市场较为动荡背景下，盈利的好坏特别是预期偏离情况对于后续市场走势特别是相关个股将起到较大影响。就此，我们结合市场和中金行业分析师预测对中金覆盖的~420家海外中资股公司的盈利情况进行汇总，以下一些信息值得关注。业绩预览：2021全年双位数增长，但下半年增速转负；上游周期居前、互联网消费落后1) 整体看，中金覆盖的海外中资股2021年全年有望实现双位数增长；但增长主要集中在上半年，下半年增速转负。基于中金公司行业分析师对所覆盖个股的预测，以人民币计价以剔除汇率因素影响，我们自下而上汇总后，中金覆盖的海外420余家中资股2021全年盈利预计同比增长16%，较2020年的-3%明显反弹，体现了疫情后整体经济和企业盈利的复苏。然而，这一水平较上半年已经兑现的40%增长明显放缓，隐含下半年增速转负。这与中国经济整体从去年下半年趋缓以及互联网监管趋严的宏观背景一致。进一步剔除疫情影响，中金行业分析师预测海外中资股2021年两年复合增速为6.3%，低于2019年17%的同比增长，还未回到疫情前水平。拆分看，周期行业2021年全年增速较上半年回落最为明显，预计盈利同比从上半年的131%回落至28%，但横向相比其他板块依然强劲。防御性板块业绩预计也有回落，由上半年的38%下滑至全年的24%；金融板块预计净利润下滑幅度较小，由上半年的11%下滑至全年的9%。2) 分行业看，上游原材料、交通运输、纺织服装等增速居前，但互联网、餐饮、媒体娱乐、线下消费等增速落后。在能源和部分材料价格走高的拉动下，上游原材料和能源板块有望实现超过150%的增长。交通运输行业也在运力紧缺和强劲外需的共同因素下，预计净利润增长靠前。相比之下，疫情期间盈利增长强劲的互联网零售和媒体娱乐等板块在2021年预计则出现负增长，主要受国内经济增速回落、监管力度加强和行业竞争加剧等多方面的因素拖累。此外，2021年疫情反复持续抑制餐饮、酒店、博彩等需求，受疫情影响较大的线下消费板块盈利增长持续偏低迷。3) 相比市场预期，中金行业分析员预测的2021年16%增速与市场预期基本一致（17%）。对于2022年，中金行业分析师预测的盈利增速持平于16%，高于当前市场预期的13%，主要差距来自于对金融（保险）和周期板块的预期，高于当前市场一致预期。4）盈利预告与意外方面，已经公布业绩预告的公司中，原材料、能源和房地产业绩预告多数偏正面，信息科技、交通运输分化，下游消费和公共事业则以负面居多。从业绩偏离预期的个股而言，中金行业分析师认为，部分能源、房地产、互联网游戏和软件等公司业绩或低于预期。前景展望：稳增长和上游价格边际回落有助于盈利修复；关注政策发力时点和监管对部分板块影响尽管2021年海外中资股全年盈利从2020年疫情的影响中反弹，但修复主要集中在上半年。从下半年开始，国内经济面临的压力上升，叠加内外部各种不确定性的扰动，盈利压力也逐渐增加。在这一背景下，MSCI中国盈利预期持续下调，也反映了市场对国内增长相对谨慎的预期。向前看，2021年底以来国内稳增长政策逐步发力、货币持续宽松、上游价格边际回落的背景下，我们预计盈利增长有望逐渐企稳回升，进而带动企业收入和盈利的回暖。不过，企稳时间可能要取决于后续稳增长发力的速度和力度，尤其是财政和房地产领域。从板块内部结构看，上游价格回落或趋缓将缓解中下游成本压力并有助于中下游消费板块盈利修复。从年初以来的盈利一致预期调整变化来看，上游（原材料、能源）板块盈利上调幅度明显放缓，下游板块盈利下调幅度也明显收窄，半导体和医疗设备等上调幅度居前。不过，互联网板块的盈利前景可能还要综合考虑监管政策的后续演变。整体而言，我们目前维持从自上而下策略角度对2022年整个海外中资股盈利增长7.2%的预测（非金融板块增长8.6%，金融板块5.9%）。我们将在全年业绩披露完毕后，结合最新盈利以及后续政策进展情况重新审视是否需要进一步调整上述盈利预期。正文披露时间：三月中下旬为披露密集期根据彭博资讯提供的预测信息，海外中资股（中国香港和美国上市的中资公司）2021年年报业绩期高峰期将在3月中下旬，大约75%上市公司将于3月份最后两周发布年报业绩。从不同板块的披露进展看，我们预计海外中资股中可选消费、房地产和信息科技板块将首先拉开业绩期帷幕，通信服务公司将在3月中旬开始密集发布年报，而工业、能源和金融等板块的业绩发布更多集中在3月底。个股方面，美国上市的中概股（例如百度、携程、哔哩哔哩、小鹏汽车等）都已在三月上旬公布2021年四季度年业绩，而部分市值规模较大的港股上市公司（例如腾讯、工商银行、中国人寿等）将在3月中下旬公布其2021年业绩，值得密切关注。图表：2021年业绩期于2月下旬拉开帷幕，高峰期将在3月中下旬资料来源：Bloomberg,   FactSet, 中金公司研究部图表：工业主要在前期发布业绩，而可选消费、金融和能源板块则集中在后期资料来源：Bloomberg,   FactSet, 中金公司研究部业绩预览：2021全年双位数增长，但下半年增速转负整体情况：2021全年双位数增长，节奏前高后低为了对2021年全年盈利增长情况有一个更好的了解，我们针对中金覆盖的约421支海外中资股（包括中国香港和美国上市的中资公司）对中金行业分析师的观点和预测进行内部问卷调查，并从自下而上角度汇总分析。虽然取样范围仅限于中金公司覆盖的样本，但是考虑到所覆盖公司均为各行业的龙头，因此基本可以反映2021年全年整体业绩情况。自下而上的调查汇总结果显示，可比口径下（财年截至不是12月或没有盈利预测的股票不在统计范围之内）、并基于人民币计算（从而可以剔除汇率变化影响），中金覆盖的海外中资股样本整体2021年全年盈利预计同比增长16%，较2021年上半年40%的增长放缓。单看下半年盈利增速可能小幅转负（-2%），主要受经济增长和监管压力加大、消费增长疲软、上游原材料价格上升、能源供应短缺等因素的综合影响。剔除疫情基数的因素来看，中金行业分析师预测2021年海外中资股样本两年净利润复合增速为6.3%，仍明显低于2019年17%的同比增速。展望2022年，我们的汇总显示中金覆盖的海外中资股样本2022年整体盈利有望维持16%的双位数的增长，高于市场一致预期约3ppt。图表：基于中金行业分析员的预测、自下而上汇总的2021年业绩预览情况（人民币口径）资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部；数据截至2022年3月5日；基于彭博一致预期图表：海外中资股不同类别的盈利增长情况资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部；基于中金行业分析师预期自下而上汇总进一步具体来看，我们发现以下几个方面值得关注：► 大板块盈利增速：针对中金覆盖的海外中资股样本，基于人民币口径和中金行业分析师的预测，中金行业分析师预计2021年全年周期性行业净利润同比增长28%；金融板块净利润增长9%；而防御性板块业绩有望实现24%的增长。具体而言：1）金融行业（银行、保险和多元金融）预计人民币口径下2021年全年净利润同比增速将从2020年的-14%回升至9%，但较上半年11%的增速放缓。其中保险板块是主要拖累，预计全年净利润同比下降1%，但下滑幅度由2020年的-7%收窄。相比，多元金融净利润有望实现31%的增张，较2020年19%的增长进一步提升。中金分析师预计银行板块全年业绩同比增长10%，较2020年-1%的负增长明显修复。2）防御性行业（电信、公共事业、医疗保健和日常消费板块）预计全年盈利增长24%，较上半年38%的增长有所放缓。其中公共事业板块盈利增速放缓预计较为明显。3）周期性行业在2021年上半年净利润强劲反弹131%，但2021年全年预计增速放缓至28%。2021年下半年经济整体增速放缓，叠加疫情、供应链瓶颈、能源和航运价格上升、监管政策落地等多种因素下周期性行业利润增速整体明显下滑且分化加剧。上游原材料（金属和矿业、煤炭、石油化工等）和运输板块预计2021年净利润同比增速在150%以上。而受线上板块（互联网、电商等）在2020年高速增长后增速大幅转负。受政策影响较大的地产板块2021年预计净利润同比下滑-6%。► 未来增长趋势：2021年海外中资股业绩增速整体呈现前高后低的趋势。年初经济从疫情中迅速反弹，但下半年在内外各种因素下增长明显放缓甚至转负，从两年增速来看，2021年增长整体仍弱于疫情前水平。步入2022年，国内政策稳增长定调已确认，经济整体增速也可能逐步修复，拉动中资企业利润增速回升。中金行业分析师预测2022年海外中资股盈利与2021年整体持平（16%增速）。金融板块增速预计由2021年的9%上升至11%，周期板块增速预计从28%下滑至21%，防御板块增速预计从24%下滑至21%。► 对比市场预期：中金行业分析员的2021预测与市场一致预期较为接近。对于2021年，基于中金行业分析师预测的盈利增速（16%）略低于市场预期（17%），其中金融略高（中金预期9% vs. 市场一致预期8%），而周期和防御均略微偏低（中金行业分析师预计周期性和防御性行业分别实现28.4%和23.7%的正增长，均略低于31.0%和23.8%的市场预期）。分板块看：化工、交运、金属、纺织服装、煤炭、油气增速居前；互联网、餐饮、媒体、房地产落后上游原材料和化工板块（如化工、金属、煤炭、石油天然气等）预计2021年业绩增速靠前。这部分得益于2020年的低基数，但背后更为关键的因素是全球经济反弹以及能源供给受限下原材料价格快速上升提振板块的利润率。与此类似，在全球供应链冲击与海外需求反弹的共同作用下，航运价格大幅上升推动交通运输板块净利润增速大幅上升。此外，国货崛起等新消费趋势的推动下，纺织服装在2021年有望实现强劲的净利润增速。相反，疫情影响较小的互联网板块则预计在2020年的高速增长后回落。互联网零售和传媒板块2021年净利润增速预计由2020年的252%和102%下滑至-151%和-12%。对于线上板块而言，2021年面临高基数、经济放缓、监管压力增强和行业竞争加剧等多重阻力。国内整体线上消费增长也有所趋缓，与全球其他市场不同。于此同时，受政策约束的影响房地产板块盈利增速也预计下滑，由2020年的6%增长回落至2021年的-6%。受国内疫情反复影响较大的餐饮、酒店、博彩等板块盈利增速持续低迷。展望2022年，随着国内政策稳增长进一步发力，我们认为经济增速也有望在下半年逐步回暖。中金行业分析师预计部分上游板块（化工、金属等）以及运输板块盈利增速预计回落，但仍维持相对高速的增长；部分中下游板块如汽车、必需消费等也有望在经济增长的带动下回暖；互联网板块有望在2021年盈利大幅回落后企稳。图表：上游原材料和运输板块2021年盈利增长预计靠前，消费互联网业绩平淡资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部图表：中金行业分析师预计大多数行业将在2022年回归正增长资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部业绩预告：上游中下分化明显港股公司集中于3月中下旬披露2021年业绩，但据万得数据汇总统计，截至2022年3月2日，已有394 港股上市公司公布业绩预告。从中， 我们可以提前预判部分行业的盈利情况。在2021年下半年，全球原材料价格大幅上涨的提振下，港股上游公司业绩持续向好，而中下游板块利润率则受到挤压。在已经公布业绩预告的公司中，原材料、能源板块预告偏正面的公司比例高达74%和73%。相比而言，中下游板块如日常消费、公共事业等业绩预告则多数偏负面。► 原材料板块中的多家矿采金属龙头预计2021年将实现超过100%的盈利增长，主要受益与国内与海外经济复苏带动的下游需求走强，以及2020年原材料价格低基数等因素。► 能源板块业绩整体受益于能源价格的反弹，其中原油及煤炭价格在供给约束与全球需求反弹的共同影响下快速上升。► 交通运输板块2021年盈利分化明显，航运价格高企推动下，航运龙头预计实现较高盈利增速。相比而言，受疫情反复的影响，航空运输业绩持续低迷。► 公共事业板块中火电板块2021年整体受高煤价影响业绩承压，多家公司由盈转亏。► 信息技术板块盈利内部分化明显。半导体行业盈利增速大幅上升。软件服务板块业绩整体承压，61%的公司业绩预告偏负面。► 可选消费板块业绩预告整体偏中性。零售、汽车、耐用品服装子板块业绩公告偏正面的公司比例分别为63%、56%，和43%。疫情反复和教育板块双减政策落地的影响下，消费者服务子板块偏正面公司占比仅有35%。我们对发布业绩预告在发布日期前后股价进行分析。我们发现在正面预告发布前3天内平均跑赢恒生国企指数0.3ppt（跑赢概率44.4%），发布后三天内平均跑输1.8ppt（跑赢概率41.7%）。另一方面，发布负面业绩预告可能会拖累股价表现，导致股价在公告发布后的三天内平均跑输恒生国企指数0.9ppt（跑输概率38.5%）。图表：港股二级行业盈利预告汇总资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部图表：市值高于50亿美元的H股上市公司业绩预告一览资料来源：Bloomberg，万得资讯，中金公司研究部；数据截至2022年3月2日；基于彭博一致预期盈利意外：中金行业分析师的观点汇总基于对中金行业分析员的内部调查，我们从自下而上的角度整理出了我们行业分析员认为未来业绩有可能超出或低于预期个股名单，详见中金已发布的报告原文。我们建议投资者在年报期间密切关注上述股票以及业绩超出或低于预期可能会对股价所产生影响。前景展望：稳增长有助于盈利修复；行业分化有望收敛2021年中国经济率先走出疫情冲击，但下半年受外部冲击和内部结构性因素的影响下增速明显放缓。海外中资股整体增长整体表现前高后低，且分化加剧。虽然2021年全年有望实现近16%的高速增长，但在平滑疫情基数影响后仍不及疫情前水平。往前看，► 虽然中国经济增长仍面临较大压力，政策进一步发力下收入端有望逐步企稳。从市场的一致预期调整幅度中也不难看出，中资企业盈利预期自2021年初以来持续下调，正是反映了整体经济增速放缓的悲观预期。然而，国内“稳增长”政策正逐步发力。央行自2021年下半年以来数次下调银行存款准备金率和基准利率后，宏观数据在2月也明显回暖。2022年两会政府工作报告制定5.5%的经济增长目标，进一步确认了政策“稳增长”的决心。未来财政政策和基建投资也值得关注。我们认为，虽然市场仍面临盈利下修压力，但伴随国内增长恢复，中资企业收入端有望回归常态。不过，企稳时间可能要取决于后续稳增长发力的速度和力度，尤其是在财政刺激和地方领域。此外，互联网板块的盈利前景可能还要综合考虑监管政策的后续演变。► PPI-CPI剪刀差回落助推下游利润率回升。2021年下半年原材料价格大幅上升，推动PPI-CPI剪刀差至历史高位，上游原材料/运输与中下游消费业绩增速分化加剧。2021年年底以来，保供稳价政策逐步见效，上游原材料价格筑顶回落。我们认为，PPI-CPI剪刀差逐步收窄有望缓解此前中下游企业的所面临的成本端压力。上游与中下游板块利润率也可能逐步收敛。从市场一致预期来看，年初至今上游板块（如能源、原材料等）盈利一致预期平均上调仅1%左右，而中游板块（医疗设备、半导体等）盈利一致预期则平均上调13%。下游盈利下调的幅度也明显放缓（-3%）。然而，外部不确定性依然值得关注。近期部分大宗商品价格再次上升，可能一定程度上影响我们的判断。整体而言，我们认为外部因素的冲击可能对中国国内基本面的影响有限。正如我们在2022年展望报告中所指出的，我们目前维持2021年海外中资股盈利同比增长7.2%的预测，其中非金融板块净利润增长8.6%，而金融板块增速为5.9%。我们将在全年业绩披露完毕后，结合最新情况审视是否需要进一步调整。图表：经济增速逐步企稳将推动中资企业收入整体改善资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部图表：年初至今中上游板块盈利一致预期仍有所上调，但下游下调幅度收窄资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036670278,"gmtCreate":1647086801284,"gmtModify":1676534194194,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036670278","repostId":"1162064213","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162064213","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647070773,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162064213?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-12 15:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why wouldn't Ruixing die?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162064213","media":"蓝鲨消费","summary":"2月8日，谷爱凌凭1620超高难度动作的最后一跳，绝地反击夺得北京冬奥会女子自由式大跳台冠军。瑞幸咖啡（以下简称瑞幸）也开始了它的绝地反击，重新登顶之路。一夜之间，瑞幸全国数千家门店竖起代言人谷爱凌的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On February 8, Gu Ailing won the women's freestyle Big air championship at the Beijing Winter Olympics with the last jump of 1620 ultra-difficult movements. Ruixing Coffee (hereinafter referred to as Ruixing) also started its Jedi counterattack and reached the top again.</p><p>Overnight, thousands of Luckin stores across the country put up advertisements for spokesperson Gu Ailing. Consumers can receive a 42% discount coupon package for winning the championship and \"cheers to winning the championship\" together.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8eb32a369c86c9c2f6afcbe240362cc\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"1421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ After Gu Ailing won the championship, Ruixing immediately changed the product packaging</p><p>Soon, Luckin Coffee announced that its number of stores reached 5,300, surpassing Starbucks again and becoming the largest coffee chain brand in China. There are even news in the media that Ruixing wants to go public for the second time.</p><p>Ruixing can indeed travel lightly again.</p><p>On February 5, Ruixing paid a fine of US $180 million (approximately 1.2 billion yuan) to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, and the two parties reached a settlement. Earlier on January 27, the buyer consortium led by Luckin's PE round investor Dacheng Capital acquired 384 million Class A ordinary shares from Luckin's original management, obtained more than 50% of the voting rights, and became Luckin's \"talker\".</p><p>Ruixing, which blew up its financial fraud scandal in April 2020, has been hanging over the two boots of stock investor lawsuits and management turmoil for the past two years, and now they have finally fallen.</p><p>In the past two years, how did Ruixing come back from the situation of \"life hanging by a thread\"? Why will Ruixing, who has been critically hit repeatedly, not die?</p><p>01 Listing, fraud, delisting, infighting</p><p>It only took 11 months for Ruixing to go from the highlight moment of its fastest listing to its fall from the altar.</p><p>On May 17, 2019, Ruixing was listed on Nasdaq with a market value of US $4.74 billion. It set a new record for the fastest time from founding to IPO of a company in the world-18.5 months. What's even more awesome is that Ruixing, founded in 2017, had 2,370 stores before listing, and its revenue also rose from 250,000 yuan in 2017 to 841 million yuan in 2018, becoming the second largest coffee in China after Starbucks. Chain brand. Subsequently, Ruixing's market value soared, exceeding US $11.9 billion on January 17, 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1f43e3f37d60f420e5fea21defed99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Luckin Coffee goes public on Nasdaq</p><p>If you want it to perish, let it go crazy first!</p><p>On January 31, 2020, Muddy Waters of the United States accused Ruixing of financial fraud. This is not the first time that Muddy Waters has shorted Chinese companies. New Oriental, 360 and other companies have been \"screwed up\", and then they are all fine. Therefore, on February 3, Luckin Chairman Lu Zhengyao firmly denied it with confidence.</p><p>Soon, Lu Zhengyao was slapped in the face. On April 2, Ruixing announced the results of self-examination. Chief Operating Officer Liu Jian and some of his subordinates falsified transaction sales from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2019, with a total amount of approximately 2.2 billion yuan. This exceeds 72% of Ruixing's total revenue in 2019 (3.025 billion yuan). Darling, 70% of your income depends on fraud. Ruixing really dares!</p><p>The price of fraud is high, and Ruixing's stock price plummeted 81.6%. On May 19, 2020, Nasdaq informed Ruixing that it must delist. On June 29, 2020, Ruixing was delisted from Nasdaq, and its stock price has dropped from the highest of US $51.38 per share to only US $1.38 per share, becoming a veritable \"penny stock\".</p><p>On July 13th, as the chairman of the board, Lu Zhengyao was ousted from the throne of the chairman by the capital with heavy losses and replaced by the agent Guo Jinyi.</p><p>You know, even if it is delisted, Ruixing, which still has 3,898 self-operated stores as of November 30, 2020, is still continuously generating cash flow, with revenue reaching 4.033 billion yuan in 2020. Ruixing is a treasure that can lay golden eggs.</p><p>Lu Zhengyao, who once created the myth of CAR Rental, UCAR, and Ruixing, is naturally unwilling to go out.</p><p>In January 2021, under his instruction, Ruixing's seven vice presidents, general managers of all branches, and some business executives jointly requested the dismissal of Guo Jinyi on the grounds that Guo was corrupt. This quickly turned out to be a trumped-up \"charge\" and a conspiracy by Lu. If one plan fails, another plan will be born. In September 2021, Lu Zhengyao secretly entrusted a third party to acquire Ruixing's equity. After being discovered, Ruixing launched a shareholder rights protection plan to prevent Lu Zhengyao from returning to the curve through hostile takeover.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b5944ac26f37f9d2e206f1628dcbce5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Lu Zhengyao, former chairman of Luckin</p><p>There is no hope of regaining Ruixing. Lu Zhengyao can only start trying new projects such as small noodles one after another, but he is already notorious in the capital market. Who dares to gamble with him again?</p><p>02 Ruixing's \"undead gene\"</p><p>In the past two years, despite the outside world's eyes, Ruixing is tottering and may die at any time. In fact, Ruixing is not only alive, but also seems to be living well.</p><p>Luckin's stores have expanded from 3,898 on November 30, 2020 to 5,300 now, surpassing Starbucks to become the coffee chain brand with the largest number of stores in China. Revenue also rose from 4.033 billion yuan in 2020 to 5.532 billion yuan in September 2021, and losses narrowed from 1.733 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2020 to 23.51 million yuan in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>So, what exactly is Ruixing's \"undead gene\"? Blue Shark Consumption summarizes it as:</p><p>1. Step on medium and heavy assets + tuyere industries; 2. The background of a strong team remains unchanged; 3. Huge capital support; 4. Scale effect and brand advantage are especially important.</p><p>First of all, coffee shops are an industry that is both in the forefront and has the characteristics of heavy assets. Heavy assets also mean high thresholds: giants such as Meituan will not easily work on their own, and are more willing to invest. Meituan Dragon Ball invested in Manner, while teams such as Manner are young, and their resources, operations, and management experience are not old enough. Luckin The team has an advantage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83487b6dac8da3a52a8c1a6865bb4e46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Manner (local coffee chain brand in Shanghai)</p><p>Secondly, although Ruixing is in turmoil, the core team has not left. For example, Yang Fei, the trader and co-founder of Ruixing Marketing, is still there. Compared with the emerging coffee shop teams such as Manner, they have store operations, brand marketing, private domain, etc. In terms of, it is still too strong.</p><p>Third, Ruixing needs huge funds whether it compensates stock investors for their losses, purchases the equity of original shareholders, and continues to maintain operations. After Ruixing's accident, Centurium Capital, which \"talked about things\", was born out of Warburg Pincus, a famous PE institution, and was able to mobilize tens of billions of money. Ruixing has always had far more financing channels than new coffee players. It can not only raise funds from VC and PE institutions, but also find Internet giants and overseas capital investment, and even rely on more than thousands of stores, coffee machines and other housing equipment. With billions of yuan in turnover, you can find bank loans, financial leasing, etc. Ruixing has money in his hand, so naturally he doesn't panic. Signing Gu Ailing to do marketing for the Beijing Winter Olympics is progressing in an orderly manner.</p><p>Fourth, coffee is a hot track. Ruixing, which started in October 2017, seized the market opportunity, and successfully shaped Ruixing to be the second largest coffee chain brand in China by constantly engaging in edge marketing \"near Starbucks\". The brand image and user mind of Starbucks challengers. Ruixing has previously invested more than 1 billion US dollars to open more than 4,000 stores, seizing a position suitable for opening stores. Existing rivals, if the store wants to reach this scale, it is simply impossible without more than 1 billion US dollars in money, and without 3-4 years to open a store crazily. With thousands of stores, Ruixing serves a large number of users every day and strengthens its own brand.</p><p>Luckin has thousands of directly-operated stores, with good turnover and high brand potential. It can also quickly expand the number of stores by joining.</p><p>03 Where is Ruixing going?</p><p>Ruixing, who stepped out of the \"Death Valley\" with the \"immortal gene\", has re-embarked on the fast lane of development, but its front is not Ma Pingchuan.</p><p>Coffee has been verified by Ruixing to be an excellent track. In addition to the old rival Starbucks, other players flocked to it. According to statistics, there will be 21 investment cases in the coffee field in 2021, with a total amount of nearly 6 billion yuan, which is the sum of the previous two years. Coffee brands such as Manner, M Stand, Tims, and Nowwa have all raised more than 100 million yuan in financing. McDonald's, China Post, Bianlifeng and other giants have all entered. With money and \"thighs\", they grab office buildings, shopping malls, shops along the street and other white-collar workers to open stores. The coffee flavors may be more diverse, but the price is cheaper, while the costs of rent, labor, equipment, etc. will rise. It is difficult for Luckin to maintain the previous expansion rate of low cost and thousands of stores a year, and have a crushing advantage in product taste and price!</p><p>Previously, in order to solve the \"troubles\" of investors and shareholders, Ruixing \"sold himself\" to raise a lot of money. But there is no free lunch in the world, and all this money has to be highly rewarded. Capital will inevitably force Ruixing to increase revenue and profits as soon as possible, achieve scale profitability, and go public quickly so that they can cash out and leave the market. Ruixing dances in the shackles of \"capital\", and its movements are inevitably deformed. For example, in order to open a store quickly, it is not allowed to open franchises as soon as possible. How to manage so many stores and ensure user experience is a huge challenge. Blue Shark Consumption saw on Black Cat Complaints that Ruixing had as many as 2,841 complaints, such as coffee freeze-dried powder agglomeration, drinking nails, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe81390b8d8f48d19765f44d1349d73\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ The number of complaints about Luckin Coffee on the black cat complaint platform is as high as 2,841</p><p>Ruixing originally hoped to improve the efficiency of stores by launching tea drinks, baking and other products. However, with the rise of tea drinks and baking chain brands such as Heytea and Nayuki's tea, Master Bao, and Momo Dim Sum Bureau and becoming increasingly strong, Ruixing has There is no competitive advantage, and consumers will not prefer to consume tea drinks and bakery products in Ruixing.</p><p>If Ruixing wants to break out of the encirclement and go further, it must continue to invest in product innovation and do a big job in refined operations. Ruixing implements a product innovation PK mechanism, dozens of products are tested, and the most popular ones can be introduced to the market. This mechanism allowed Ruixing to launch a hot product in 2021-raw coconut latte.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c6e7cd19e37703c282ff962d441620c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Advertising map of Ruixing Raw Coconut Latte</p><p>The scale of Ruixing stores has exceeded 5,300. How to improve the efficiency of warehouse distribution and the human efficiency of the store has become particularly important. This requires the introduction of more advanced coffee machines, more efficient digital systems such as manpower, cashier, and membership, and reduce the cost of middle and back offices. Management expenses for non-store personnel, etc.</p><p>How far Luckin can go, whether it can kill Starbucks and become the king of coffee in China, let us wait and see.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1647070808416","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why wouldn't Ruixing die?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy wouldn't Ruixing die?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">蓝鲨消费</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-12 15:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On February 8, Gu Ailing won the women's freestyle Big air championship at the Beijing Winter Olympics with the last jump of 1620 ultra-difficult movements. Ruixing Coffee (hereinafter referred to as Ruixing) also started its Jedi counterattack and reached the top again.</p><p>Overnight, thousands of Luckin stores across the country put up advertisements for spokesperson Gu Ailing. Consumers can receive a 42% discount coupon package for winning the championship and \"cheers to winning the championship\" together.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8eb32a369c86c9c2f6afcbe240362cc\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"1421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ After Gu Ailing won the championship, Ruixing immediately changed the product packaging</p><p>Soon, Luckin Coffee announced that its number of stores reached 5,300, surpassing Starbucks again and becoming the largest coffee chain brand in China. There are even news in the media that Ruixing wants to go public for the second time.</p><p>Ruixing can indeed travel lightly again.</p><p>On February 5, Ruixing paid a fine of US $180 million (approximately 1.2 billion yuan) to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, and the two parties reached a settlement. Earlier on January 27, the buyer consortium led by Luckin's PE round investor Dacheng Capital acquired 384 million Class A ordinary shares from Luckin's original management, obtained more than 50% of the voting rights, and became Luckin's \"talker\".</p><p>Ruixing, which blew up its financial fraud scandal in April 2020, has been hanging over the two boots of stock investor lawsuits and management turmoil for the past two years, and now they have finally fallen.</p><p>In the past two years, how did Ruixing come back from the situation of \"life hanging by a thread\"? Why will Ruixing, who has been critically hit repeatedly, not die?</p><p>01 Listing, fraud, delisting, infighting</p><p>It only took 11 months for Ruixing to go from the highlight moment of its fastest listing to its fall from the altar.</p><p>On May 17, 2019, Ruixing was listed on Nasdaq with a market value of US $4.74 billion. It set a new record for the fastest time from founding to IPO of a company in the world-18.5 months. What's even more awesome is that Ruixing, founded in 2017, had 2,370 stores before listing, and its revenue also rose from 250,000 yuan in 2017 to 841 million yuan in 2018, becoming the second largest coffee in China after Starbucks. Chain brand. Subsequently, Ruixing's market value soared, exceeding US $11.9 billion on January 17, 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1f43e3f37d60f420e5fea21defed99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Luckin Coffee goes public on Nasdaq</p><p>If you want it to perish, let it go crazy first!</p><p>On January 31, 2020, Muddy Waters of the United States accused Ruixing of financial fraud. This is not the first time that Muddy Waters has shorted Chinese companies. New Oriental, 360 and other companies have been \"screwed up\", and then they are all fine. Therefore, on February 3, Luckin Chairman Lu Zhengyao firmly denied it with confidence.</p><p>Soon, Lu Zhengyao was slapped in the face. On April 2, Ruixing announced the results of self-examination. Chief Operating Officer Liu Jian and some of his subordinates falsified transaction sales from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2019, with a total amount of approximately 2.2 billion yuan. This exceeds 72% of Ruixing's total revenue in 2019 (3.025 billion yuan). Darling, 70% of your income depends on fraud. Ruixing really dares!</p><p>The price of fraud is high, and Ruixing's stock price plummeted 81.6%. On May 19, 2020, Nasdaq informed Ruixing that it must delist. On June 29, 2020, Ruixing was delisted from Nasdaq, and its stock price has dropped from the highest of US $51.38 per share to only US $1.38 per share, becoming a veritable \"penny stock\".</p><p>On July 13th, as the chairman of the board, Lu Zhengyao was ousted from the throne of the chairman by the capital with heavy losses and replaced by the agent Guo Jinyi.</p><p>You know, even if it is delisted, Ruixing, which still has 3,898 self-operated stores as of November 30, 2020, is still continuously generating cash flow, with revenue reaching 4.033 billion yuan in 2020. Ruixing is a treasure that can lay golden eggs.</p><p>Lu Zhengyao, who once created the myth of CAR Rental, UCAR, and Ruixing, is naturally unwilling to go out.</p><p>In January 2021, under his instruction, Ruixing's seven vice presidents, general managers of all branches, and some business executives jointly requested the dismissal of Guo Jinyi on the grounds that Guo was corrupt. This quickly turned out to be a trumped-up \"charge\" and a conspiracy by Lu. If one plan fails, another plan will be born. In September 2021, Lu Zhengyao secretly entrusted a third party to acquire Ruixing's equity. After being discovered, Ruixing launched a shareholder rights protection plan to prevent Lu Zhengyao from returning to the curve through hostile takeover.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b5944ac26f37f9d2e206f1628dcbce5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Lu Zhengyao, former chairman of Luckin</p><p>There is no hope of regaining Ruixing. Lu Zhengyao can only start trying new projects such as small noodles one after another, but he is already notorious in the capital market. Who dares to gamble with him again?</p><p>02 Ruixing's \"undead gene\"</p><p>In the past two years, despite the outside world's eyes, Ruixing is tottering and may die at any time. In fact, Ruixing is not only alive, but also seems to be living well.</p><p>Luckin's stores have expanded from 3,898 on November 30, 2020 to 5,300 now, surpassing Starbucks to become the coffee chain brand with the largest number of stores in China. Revenue also rose from 4.033 billion yuan in 2020 to 5.532 billion yuan in September 2021, and losses narrowed from 1.733 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2020 to 23.51 million yuan in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>So, what exactly is Ruixing's \"undead gene\"? Blue Shark Consumption summarizes it as:</p><p>1. Step on medium and heavy assets + tuyere industries; 2. The background of a strong team remains unchanged; 3. Huge capital support; 4. Scale effect and brand advantage are especially important.</p><p>First of all, coffee shops are an industry that is both in the forefront and has the characteristics of heavy assets. Heavy assets also mean high thresholds: giants such as Meituan will not easily work on their own, and are more willing to invest. Meituan Dragon Ball invested in Manner, while teams such as Manner are young, and their resources, operations, and management experience are not old enough. Luckin The team has an advantage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83487b6dac8da3a52a8c1a6865bb4e46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Manner (local coffee chain brand in Shanghai)</p><p>Secondly, although Ruixing is in turmoil, the core team has not left. For example, Yang Fei, the trader and co-founder of Ruixing Marketing, is still there. Compared with the emerging coffee shop teams such as Manner, they have store operations, brand marketing, private domain, etc. In terms of, it is still too strong.</p><p>Third, Ruixing needs huge funds whether it compensates stock investors for their losses, purchases the equity of original shareholders, and continues to maintain operations. After Ruixing's accident, Centurium Capital, which \"talked about things\", was born out of Warburg Pincus, a famous PE institution, and was able to mobilize tens of billions of money. Ruixing has always had far more financing channels than new coffee players. It can not only raise funds from VC and PE institutions, but also find Internet giants and overseas capital investment, and even rely on more than thousands of stores, coffee machines and other housing equipment. With billions of yuan in turnover, you can find bank loans, financial leasing, etc. Ruixing has money in his hand, so naturally he doesn't panic. Signing Gu Ailing to do marketing for the Beijing Winter Olympics is progressing in an orderly manner.</p><p>Fourth, coffee is a hot track. Ruixing, which started in October 2017, seized the market opportunity, and successfully shaped Ruixing to be the second largest coffee chain brand in China by constantly engaging in edge marketing \"near Starbucks\". The brand image and user mind of Starbucks challengers. Ruixing has previously invested more than 1 billion US dollars to open more than 4,000 stores, seizing a position suitable for opening stores. Existing rivals, if the store wants to reach this scale, it is simply impossible without more than 1 billion US dollars in money, and without 3-4 years to open a store crazily. With thousands of stores, Ruixing serves a large number of users every day and strengthens its own brand.</p><p>Luckin has thousands of directly-operated stores, with good turnover and high brand potential. It can also quickly expand the number of stores by joining.</p><p>03 Where is Ruixing going?</p><p>Ruixing, who stepped out of the \"Death Valley\" with the \"immortal gene\", has re-embarked on the fast lane of development, but its front is not Ma Pingchuan.</p><p>Coffee has been verified by Ruixing to be an excellent track. In addition to the old rival Starbucks, other players flocked to it. According to statistics, there will be 21 investment cases in the coffee field in 2021, with a total amount of nearly 6 billion yuan, which is the sum of the previous two years. Coffee brands such as Manner, M Stand, Tims, and Nowwa have all raised more than 100 million yuan in financing. McDonald's, China Post, Bianlifeng and other giants have all entered. With money and \"thighs\", they grab office buildings, shopping malls, shops along the street and other white-collar workers to open stores. The coffee flavors may be more diverse, but the price is cheaper, while the costs of rent, labor, equipment, etc. will rise. It is difficult for Luckin to maintain the previous expansion rate of low cost and thousands of stores a year, and have a crushing advantage in product taste and price!</p><p>Previously, in order to solve the \"troubles\" of investors and shareholders, Ruixing \"sold himself\" to raise a lot of money. But there is no free lunch in the world, and all this money has to be highly rewarded. Capital will inevitably force Ruixing to increase revenue and profits as soon as possible, achieve scale profitability, and go public quickly so that they can cash out and leave the market. Ruixing dances in the shackles of \"capital\", and its movements are inevitably deformed. For example, in order to open a store quickly, it is not allowed to open franchises as soon as possible. How to manage so many stores and ensure user experience is a huge challenge. Blue Shark Consumption saw on Black Cat Complaints that Ruixing had as many as 2,841 complaints, such as coffee freeze-dried powder agglomeration, drinking nails, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe81390b8d8f48d19765f44d1349d73\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ The number of complaints about Luckin Coffee on the black cat complaint platform is as high as 2,841</p><p>Ruixing originally hoped to improve the efficiency of stores by launching tea drinks, baking and other products. However, with the rise of tea drinks and baking chain brands such as Heytea and Nayuki's tea, Master Bao, and Momo Dim Sum Bureau and becoming increasingly strong, Ruixing has There is no competitive advantage, and consumers will not prefer to consume tea drinks and bakery products in Ruixing.</p><p>If Ruixing wants to break out of the encirclement and go further, it must continue to invest in product innovation and do a big job in refined operations. Ruixing implements a product innovation PK mechanism, dozens of products are tested, and the most popular ones can be introduced to the market. This mechanism allowed Ruixing to launch a hot product in 2021-raw coconut latte.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c6e7cd19e37703c282ff962d441620c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Advertising map of Ruixing Raw Coconut Latte</p><p>The scale of Ruixing stores has exceeded 5,300. How to improve the efficiency of warehouse distribution and the human efficiency of the store has become particularly important. This requires the introduction of more advanced coffee machines, more efficient digital systems such as manpower, cashier, and membership, and reduce the cost of middle and back offices. Management expenses for non-store personnel, etc.</p><p>How far Luckin can go, whether it can kill Starbucks and become the king of coffee in China, let us wait and see.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1650308451365893\">蓝鲨消费</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d12f820102df1859c1d25e4011ee104","relate_stocks":{"LKNCY":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1650308451365893","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162064213","content_text":"2月8日，谷爱凌凭1620超高难度动作的最后一跳，绝地反击夺得北京冬奥会女子自由式大跳台冠军。瑞幸咖啡（以下简称瑞幸）也开始了它的绝地反击，重新登顶之路。一夜之间，瑞幸全国数千家门店竖起代言人谷爱凌的广告，消费者可以领取4.8折夺冠券包，一起“为夺冠干杯”。△谷爱凌夺冠后，瑞幸第一时间更换了产品包装很快，瑞幸咖啡宣布其门店数达5300家，重新超越星巴克，成为中国最大的咖啡连锁品牌。更有媒体传出瑞幸欲二次上市的消息。瑞幸确实可以再次轻装上阵了。2月5日，瑞幸向美国证券交易委员会缴纳1.8亿美元（约合12亿元）罚款，双方达成和解。更早之前的1月27日，瑞幸PE轮投资方大钲资本牵头的买方财团，从瑞幸原管理层收购了3.84亿股A类普通股，获得50%以上的投票权，成为瑞幸的“话事人”。2020年4月自爆财务造假丑闻的瑞幸，近2年头上始终悬着股票投资人诉讼和管理层动荡这两只靴子，现在终于都落下来了。这两年，瑞幸怎么从“命悬一线”的境地起死回生的？为什么屡受暴击的瑞幸不会死？01 上市，造假，退市，内斗瑞幸从最快上市的高光时刻到跌落神坛，人人喊打，只过了11个月。2019年5 月 17 日，瑞幸在纳斯达克上市，市值达47.40 亿美元。它刷新了一家公司从创立到 IPO 的全球最快纪录——18.5 个月。更牛的是，2017年创立的瑞幸，上市前已拥有2370家门店，营收也从2017年的25万元涨到2018年的8.41亿元，成为仅次于星巴克的中国第二大咖啡连锁品牌。随后，瑞幸市值一路飙升，2020年1月17日一度超119亿美元。△瑞幸咖啡在纳斯达克上市欲让其灭亡，先让其疯狂！2020年1月31日，美国浑水指控瑞幸涉嫌财务造假。这不是浑水第一次做空中国公司，新东方、360等公司都被“搞过”，后来都没事。因此，2月3日，瑞幸董事长陆正耀理直气壮地坚决否认。很快，陆正耀被啪啪打脸。4月2日，瑞幸公布自查结果，首席运营官刘剑和他的部分下属，2019年第2季度到第4季度伪造交易销售额，总金额约为22亿元。这超过瑞幸2019年总营收（30.25亿元）的72%。乖乖，七成收入靠造假。瑞幸真敢！造假的代价很大，瑞幸股价暴跌81.6%。2020年5月19日，纳斯达克通知瑞幸必须退市。2020年6月29日，瑞幸从纳斯达克退市，股价已从最高的51.38美元/股跌到仅剩1.38美元/股，成为名副其实的“仙股”。7月13日，作为董事长，陆正耀被损失惨重的资本赶下董事长宝座，换上代理人郭谨一。要知道，即便退市了，但截至2020年11月30日还有3898自营门店的瑞幸，还在源源不断地产生现金流，2020年营收达40.33亿元。瑞幸是一个能生金蛋的宝贝。曾缔造了神州租车、神州优车、瑞幸神话的陆正耀，自然不甘心出局。2021年1月，在他的授意下，瑞幸7个副总裁，所有分公司总经理，部分业务高管联名要求罢免郭谨一，理由是郭贪腐。这很快被证明是莫须有的“罪名”，是陆的阴谋。一计不成又生一计。2021年9月，陆正耀偷偷委托第三方收购瑞幸的股权，被发现后，瑞幸推出一项股东权益保护计划，防止陆正耀通过恶意收购，曲线回归。△瑞幸原董事长陆正耀重夺瑞幸无望，陆正耀只能陆续开始尝试小面等新项目，但他在资本市场已臭名卓著，谁敢跟他再赌一把大的呢？02 瑞幸的“不死基因”这两年，尽管外界看来，瑞幸风雨飘摇，随时有可能挂掉。实际上，瑞幸不但活着，活得似乎还不错。瑞幸门店从2020年11月30日的3898家扩张到现在的5300家，超过星巴克成为中国门店数最多的咖啡连锁品牌。营收也从2020年的40.33亿元涨到了2021年9月的55.32亿元，亏损从2020年3季度的17.33亿元收窄到2021年3季度的2351万元。那么，瑞幸的“不死基因”到底是什么？蓝鲨消费将其总结为：1、踩中重资产+风口产业；2、强悍团队底色不变；3、巨额资本支撑；4、规模效应和品牌优势尤在。首先，咖啡店是一个既在风口，又具有重资产特征的产业。重资产也意味着高门槛：美团等巨头不会轻易自己上场干，更愿意投资，美团龙珠就投了Manner，而Manner等团队偏年轻，资源、运营、管理经验不够老辣，瑞幸团队有优势。△Manner（上海本土的咖啡连锁品牌）其次，虽然瑞幸动荡，但核心团队并没有走，比如瑞幸营销的操盘手、联合创始人杨飞依然在，他们跟Manner等后起的咖啡店团队比，门店运营、品牌营销、私域等方面，依然强悍太多。第三，瑞幸无论是赔偿股票投资人的损失，还是购买原股东的股权，以及继续维持运营，都需要庞大的资金。瑞幸出事后，“话事”的大钲资本脱胎于著名的PE机构华平资本，能调动百亿级的钱。瑞幸一直有远比咖啡新玩家多得多的融资渠道，不但能从 VC、PE 机构融资，还能找互联网巨头和海外资本投资，甚至凭超数千家门店、咖啡机等房屋设备，每年数十亿元的流水，可以找银行贷款、融资租赁等。瑞幸手里有钱，自然心里不慌，签约谷爱凌做北京冬奥营销等都在有条不紊地推进。第四，咖啡是个风口赛道，起步于2017年10月的瑞幸抢占了市场先机，且通过不断地“傍星巴克”搞擦边球营销，成功塑造了瑞幸是中国第二大咖啡连锁品牌，是星巴克挑战者的品牌形象和用户心智。瑞幸之前投入了超10亿美元开了超4000家门店，抢占了适合开店的位置。现有对手，门店想要达到这个规模，没有10亿美元以上的钱，没有3-4年时间疯狂开店，根本不可能。瑞幸凭数千家门店，每天服务海量用户，又强化了自己的品牌。瑞幸数几千家直营店，流水不错，品牌势能高，还能用加盟方式迅捷扩大门店数量。03 瑞幸向何处去？凭“不死基因”走出“死亡谷”的瑞幸，重新走上了发展的快车道，但它的前面并非一马平川。咖啡被瑞幸验证了是一条极好的赛道，除了老对手星巴克外，其他玩家蜂拥而至。据统计，2021年咖啡领域投资案例共21起，总金额接近60亿元，是此前两年的总和。Manner、M Stand、Tims、Nowwa等咖啡品牌融资都超1亿元。麦当劳、中国邮政、便利蜂等巨头都杀入进来。有钱、有“大腿”的它们，抢夺写字楼、商场、沿街商铺等白领人群出没的场景开店，咖啡口味可能更多样，价格却更便宜，而房租、人工、设备等成本却会水涨船高，瑞幸再想保持之前低成本、一年上千家店的扩张速度，在产品口味、价格上有碾压式的优势，难了！之前，为了解决投资人和股东的“麻烦”，瑞幸“卖身”融了很多钱。但天下没有免费的午餐，这些钱都是要高回报的。资本必然逼迫瑞幸尽快将营收、利润做上来，实现规模盈利，快速二次上市，好让它们套现离场。瑞幸戴着“资本”的镣铐跳舞，动作难免变形，比如为了快速开店，不得从快开放加盟，如何管好如此多的门店，保证用户体验是巨大的挑战。蓝鲨消费在黑猫投诉上看到，瑞幸的投诉高达2841条，比如咖啡冻干粉结块、喝出指甲等。△黑猫投诉平台上瑞幸咖啡的投诉量高达2841条瑞幸原来希望通过推出茶饮、烘焙等产品提高门店坪效，但随着喜茶、奈雪的茶，鲍师傅、墨茉点心局等茶饮、烘焙连锁品牌崛起并日渐强势，瑞幸并没有竞争优势，消费者也不会首选在瑞幸消费茶饮、烘焙产品。瑞幸要想杀出重围，走得更远，还得在产品创新上持续投入，在精细化运营上做大文章。瑞幸推行产品创新PK机制，数十款产品做测试，最受欢迎的才能推向市场。这个机制让瑞幸2021年推了一个爆款——生椰拿铁。△瑞幸生椰拿铁的广告宣传图瑞幸门店规模已超5300家，如何提高仓配的效率，门店的人效，变得尤其重要，这需要引入更先进的咖啡机，更高效的人力、收银、会员等数字化系统，降低中后台非门店人员的管理费用等。瑞幸到底能走多远，能不能干掉星巴克，成为中国的咖啡之王，让我们拭目以待。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LKNCY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016416158,"gmtCreate":1649217654904,"gmtModify":1676534472637,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016416158","repostId":"2225531369","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2225531369","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1649210859,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225531369?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-06 10:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One article to understand | The \"hawkish\" speech of the \"dovish\" officials of the Federal Reserve","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225531369","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"原标题：5月缩表？为何这两个美联储高官“放鹰”，市场反应这么大？隔夜美国金融市场再度上演股债双杀，而这些基本都要归功于两位美联储高管的威力！隔夜美国金融市场再度上演股债双杀。三大美股指齐创逾一周新低；","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Original title: shrinking balance sheet in May? Why did these two senior Fed officials \"hawk\" and the market reacted so much?</p><p><b><b>Overnight, the U.S. financial market once again staged a double kill of stocks and bonds.</b></b><b>And these are basically due to the power of the two Fed executives!</b>Overnight, the U.S. financial market once again staged a double kill of stocks and bonds.</p><p>The three major U.S. stock indexes all hit new lows in more than a week; The benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield once rose by 17 basis points during the day, hitting a new high in nearly three years after a week, and the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate rose above 5%; The US Dollar Index jumped intraday, once reaching 99.50, a new high in nearly two years.</p><p>And all these are basically due to the power of the two Fed executives.</p><p>On Tuesday, future Fed No. 2, Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who was nominated by Biden as Fed Vice Chairman, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both made it clear that they were focused on curbing inflation. The latest view.</p><p>Among them, Brainard emphasized that,<b>The Fed will \"rapidly\" shrink its balance sheet.</b></p><p>According to CNBC, she noted during a Minneapolis Fed webinar that \"<b>Reducing inflation is essential</b>\", the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that sets interest rate policy<b>\"We will continue to methodically tighten monetary policy through a series of rate hike and make a rapid balance sheet reduction as soon as possible at our May meeting.\"</b></p><p>And later that day, Daly also said,<b>Inflation at a 40-year high is \"as harmful as no jobs\".</b></p><p>Speaking to the Association of Native American Finance Officials, she assured the group that the Federal Reserve is dealing with high inflation.</p><p>She pointed out in her speech:</p><p>Most Americans, most people, most businesses... you all have the confidence that we won't let this go forever... but if you don't have that confidence, let me give it to you. She has repeatedly assured attendees that interest rates are moving higher. But she also added that she didn't think it would lead to a recession and that raising interest rates was \"necessary to make sure again that when (you) sleep at night, you don't have to worry about whether prices are going to be higher, they will be higher tomorrow\".</p><p><b>The hawkish speeches of these two Fed officials have attracted market attention because they are both considered to belong to the \"dovish\" camp of the Fed-which means that they usually prefer low interest rates and less restrictive monetary policies.</b></p><p><b>But now, they all think that monetary tightening is imminent, which highlights the importance the Fed attaches.</b></p><p><b>Among them, Brainard's statement is particularly weighty. As mentioned at the beginning, she is about to become the No. 2 person in the Federal Reserve, that is, the top deputy of Chairman Powell.</b></p><p>On the shrinking balance sheet Process, Brainard said she expects the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet to \"contract faster\" than it did during the last 2017-19 tapering round. At the time, the Federal Reserve allowed $50 billion a month from maturing bonds while reinvesting the rest.</p><p>Her latest comments open the door to the expectations of many economists, who expect the Fed to tapering by $80 billion-$100 billion a month this time.</p><p>Brainard also added,<b>Shrinking the balance sheet \"will help tighten monetary policy and make interest rates rise more than expected\".</b></p><p>Regarding the next policy pace of the Federal Reserve, Brainard mentioned:</p><p>Currently, inflation is too high and there are upside risks. The Committee is prepared to take stronger measures if inflation and inflation expectations suggest that action is necessary. Meanwhile, Daly approved of opening a shrinking balance sheet in May, adding that<b>The Fed's pledge to fight inflation \"will mean higher interest rates.\"</b></p><p>She pointed out:</p><p>But inflation, which is the price people pay day in and day out, has always been in their minds. They sleep at night thinking about it and wake up in the morning thinking about rent, transportation, gas prices, food prices, so the Fed is on the path to raising interest rates.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One article to understand | The \"hawkish\" speech of the \"dovish\" officials of the Federal Reserve</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne article to understand | The \"hawkish\" speech of the \"dovish\" officials of the Federal Reserve\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-06 10:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Original title: shrinking balance sheet in May? Why did these two senior Fed officials \"hawk\" and the market reacted so much?</p><p><b><b>Overnight, the U.S. financial market once again staged a double kill of stocks and bonds.</b></b><b>And these are basically due to the power of the two Fed executives!</b>Overnight, the U.S. financial market once again staged a double kill of stocks and bonds.</p><p>The three major U.S. stock indexes all hit new lows in more than a week; The benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield once rose by 17 basis points during the day, hitting a new high in nearly three years after a week, and the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate rose above 5%; The US Dollar Index jumped intraday, once reaching 99.50, a new high in nearly two years.</p><p>And all these are basically due to the power of the two Fed executives.</p><p>On Tuesday, future Fed No. 2, Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who was nominated by Biden as Fed Vice Chairman, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both made it clear that they were focused on curbing inflation. The latest view.</p><p>Among them, Brainard emphasized that,<b>The Fed will \"rapidly\" shrink its balance sheet.</b></p><p>According to CNBC, she noted during a Minneapolis Fed webinar that \"<b>Reducing inflation is essential</b>\", the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that sets interest rate policy<b>\"We will continue to methodically tighten monetary policy through a series of rate hike and make a rapid balance sheet reduction as soon as possible at our May meeting.\"</b></p><p>And later that day, Daly also said,<b>Inflation at a 40-year high is \"as harmful as no jobs\".</b></p><p>Speaking to the Association of Native American Finance Officials, she assured the group that the Federal Reserve is dealing with high inflation.</p><p>She pointed out in her speech:</p><p>Most Americans, most people, most businesses... you all have the confidence that we won't let this go forever... but if you don't have that confidence, let me give it to you. She has repeatedly assured attendees that interest rates are moving higher. But she also added that she didn't think it would lead to a recession and that raising interest rates was \"necessary to make sure again that when (you) sleep at night, you don't have to worry about whether prices are going to be higher, they will be higher tomorrow\".</p><p><b>The hawkish speeches of these two Fed officials have attracted market attention because they are both considered to belong to the \"dovish\" camp of the Fed-which means that they usually prefer low interest rates and less restrictive monetary policies.</b></p><p><b>But now, they all think that monetary tightening is imminent, which highlights the importance the Fed attaches.</b></p><p><b>Among them, Brainard's statement is particularly weighty. As mentioned at the beginning, she is about to become the No. 2 person in the Federal Reserve, that is, the top deputy of Chairman Powell.</b></p><p>On the shrinking balance sheet Process, Brainard said she expects the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet to \"contract faster\" than it did during the last 2017-19 tapering round. At the time, the Federal Reserve allowed $50 billion a month from maturing bonds while reinvesting the rest.</p><p>Her latest comments open the door to the expectations of many economists, who expect the Fed to tapering by $80 billion-$100 billion a month this time.</p><p>Brainard also added,<b>Shrinking the balance sheet \"will help tighten monetary policy and make interest rates rise more than expected\".</b></p><p>Regarding the next policy pace of the Federal Reserve, Brainard mentioned:</p><p>Currently, inflation is too high and there are upside risks. The Committee is prepared to take stronger measures if inflation and inflation expectations suggest that action is necessary. Meanwhile, Daly approved of opening a shrinking balance sheet in May, adding that<b>The Fed's pledge to fight inflation \"will mean higher interest rates.\"</b></p><p>She pointed out:</p><p>But inflation, which is the price people pay day in and day out, has always been in their minds. They sleep at night thinking about it and wake up in the morning thinking about rent, transportation, gas prices, food prices, so the Fed is on the path to raising interest rates.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656116\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/123472eab1159c5e881f8e540a346014","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656116","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2225531369","content_text":"原标题：5月缩表？为何这两个美联储高官“放鹰”，市场反应这么大？隔夜美国金融市场再度上演股债双杀，而这些基本都要归功于两位美联储高管的威力！隔夜美国金融市场再度上演股债双杀。三大美股指齐创逾一周新低；基准10年期美债收益率日内升幅一度达17个基点，时隔一周又创近三年新高，美国30年期按揭利率升破5%；美元指数盘中跳涨，一度重上99.50创将近两年来新高。而这些基本都要归功于两位美联储高管的威力。本周二，未来的美联储二号人物、被拜登提名为美联储副主席的美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）和旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly）均明确表明了关注遏制通胀的最新观点。其中布雷纳德强调，美联储将“迅速”缩减资产负债表。据CNBC报道称，她在明尼阿波利斯联储网络研讨会上指出“降低通胀至关重要”，制定利率政策的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）“将继续有条不紊地通过一系列加息来收紧货币政策，并在我们5月的会议上尽快对资产负债表进行快速缩减。”而在当天晚些时候，戴利也同样表示，通货膨胀率处于40年高位“与没有工作一样有害”。在向美国原住民财务官员协会发表讲话时，她向该组织保证美联储正在处理高企通胀。她在演讲中指出：大多数美国人，大多数人，大多数企业......你们都有信心，我们不会永远让这一切过去......但如果你没有那个信心，就让我给你吧。她多次向与会者保证，利率正在走高。但她还补充道，她认为这不会导致经济衰退，提高利率“是再次确保（你）晚上睡觉时所必需的，你不必担心价格是否会更高，明天会更高”。而这两位美联储官员的上述鹰派发言之所以会引发市场瞩目，是因为他们都被认为是属于美联储的“鸽派”阵营—这意味着他们通常倾向于低利率和限制较少的货币政策。但是现在，他们都认为收紧货币已经迫在眉睫，这突显出美联储的重视程度。其中布雷纳德的表态格外有份量，就像开头提及的，她即将成为美联储的二号人物，也就是主席鲍威尔的最高副手。关于缩表进程，布雷纳德表示，她预计美联储9万亿美元的资产负债表将比上一轮2017-19年缩减时“收缩得更快”。当时，美联储允许每月从到期债券中获得500亿美元的收益，同时将其余部分进行再投资。她的最新评论为许多经济学家的预期打开了大门，他们预计此次美联储每月将缩减800亿-1000亿美元。布雷纳德还补充称，缩减资产负债表“将有助于货币政策的收紧，并使得利率超过预期增幅”。关于接下来的美联储的政策节奏，布雷纳德提及：目前，通胀率过高，存在上行风险。如果通胀和通胀预期表明有必要采取行动，委员会准备采取更有力的措施。与此同时，戴利对5月开启缩表的看法表示赞同，并补充说美联储对抗通胀的承诺“将意味着利率上升”。她对此指出：但通货膨胀，这是人们日复一日所付出的代价，一直记挂在他们心中。他们晚上睡觉想着它，早上醒来想着租金、交通、汽油价格、食品价格，所以美联储正走在提高利率的道路上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9066558101,"gmtCreate":1651931406803,"gmtModify":1676534999335,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9066558101","repostId":"1179424055","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179424055","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651918203,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179424055?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-07 18:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Musk's Ambitions, Tesla's Troubles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179424055","media":"子弹财观","summary":"特斯拉的扩张步伐又有了新动向。5月4日，有外媒报道称，特斯拉计划在当前的特斯拉上海超级工厂附近建设一个新工厂，用于生产Model 3和Model Y，预计可增加45万辆汽车的年产能，成为特斯拉在全球“","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Tesla's expansion pace has taken a new trend.</p><p>On May 4, foreign media reported that Tesla plans to build a new factory near the current Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory to produce Model 3 and Model Y, which is expected to increase the annual production capacity of 450,000 vehicles., becoming Tesla's \"largest automobile export center\" in the world.</p><p>Soon, \"Tesla is about to build a second factory in Shanghai\" was sent to Weibo's hot search.</p><p>However, on May 5, some media also reported that the information obtained from relevant insiders of Tesla<b>The accurate news is \"it is an expansion of production, not a second factory\".</b></p><p>But whether it is expanding production or building a second factory, it means that Tesla's production capacity will usher in further improvement. What's more, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has set a goal of \"50% year-on-year growth, and possibly even 60% growth\" for Tesla's delivery volume in 2022.</p><p>Musk's revealed ambitions undoubtedly stimulated Tesla's stock price to rise. After the news of production expansion flowed out, as of the close on May 4, Eastern Time, Tesla's stock price rose 4.77% to close at US $952.62, with a total market value of 986.9 billion US dollars.</p><p>However, concerns about the ambitious Musk and his Tesla have never stopped.</p><p><i><b>1</b></i></p><p><b>The big winner of new energy vehicles</b></p><p>As the automobile industry moves towards the new energy era, Tesla is undoubtedly the most watched new energy car company in the world, and its founder elon musk has also become the biggest winner. With Tesla, he successfully reached the top of the world's richest man.</p><p>According to Forbes China data, Musk's wealth will increase by US $68 billion in 2021. On the \"2022 Global Billionaires List\" released by Forbes on April 5, based on the stock price calculation as of March 11, 2022, Musk surpassed Amazon founder Jeff Bezos (net worth 171 billion US dollars) with a net worth of 219 billion US dollars), becoming the richest man in the world.</p><p>During the 3 months of the first quarter of 2022, Tesla also made huge profits.</p><p>Tesla's financial report shows that in the first quarter, its total revenue was US $18.756 billion, an increase of 81% from US $10.389 billion in the same period last year, of which automotive business revenue reached US $16.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 87%. Tesla's net profit in the first quarter reached US $3.318 billion, a surge of 657.53% from US $438 million in the same period last year.</p><p>This performance exceeded outside expectations. Previously, Wall Street expected Tesla's revenue and profit to be about US $18 billion and US $2.6 billion respectively.</p><p><b>For the increase in car sales revenue, Tesla attributed it to higher car deliveries and higher single-vehicle prices.</b></p><p>In the financial report, Tesla pointed out that in the three months ended March 31, 2022, cash deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y increased by 111,915, and cash deliveries of Model S and Model X increased by 10,305 year-on-year.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, with the price increase of upstream raw materials in the new energy vehicle industry, many new energy vehicle brands such as Tesla, BYD, XPeng, Nio and WM Motor have set off a wave of price increases, ranging from several thousand yuan to tens of thousands of yuan.</p><p>In the eight days from March 10th to 17th this year, Tesla frantically raised prices three times, raising the prices of some domestically produced Model 3 and Model Y models, with the price increase range ranging from 10,000 to 30,000 yuan. Among them, the price of the Model Y high-performance version alone increased by 30,000 yuan in a few days.</p><p>According to Tesla's official website, as of May 5, the price of the Model Y high-performance version was 417,900 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95be45ee93584e726440c8907985f0e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure/Tesla official</p><p><b>At the same time, Tesla also raised product prices in the United States, with price increases ranging from 2,000 to 12,500 US dollars.</b></p><p>This is quite different from Tesla's moves that are eager to seize the market in 2020: In 2020, Tesla lowered product prices many times. In January, Tesla lowered the price of the Model 3 base car made in China from 356,000 yuan to 324,000 yuan, and the subsidy price is 299,000 yuan. In May, after the announcement of the 300,000 yuan subsidy threshold for new energy vehicles, Tesla adjusted the starting price of the Model 3 standard battery life upgraded version to 291,800 yuan, and the subsidy price was as low as 271,600 yuan...</p><p>What is reflected behind this is the increase in demand for the entire new energy vehicle market.</p><p>Relevant data shows that in 2021, the global annual sales of new energy vehicles will be 6.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 108%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by more than 160% year-on-year, with sales reaching 3.52 million units.</p><p>For the whole year of 2021, Tesla delivered 936,200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 87.4%. From January to March this year, Tesla delivered 310,048 vehicles, about one-third of the full-year delivery volume in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 69%.</p><p>On the day of the release of this eye-catching financial report (April 21), Tesla's intraday share price once rose by 12%. Although the increase narrowed to 3.23% at the close due to the decline of the broader market, the share price still closed at $1,008.78/share.</p><p><i><b>2</b></i></p><p><b>Cars no longer make hard money?</b></p><p><b>Behind Tesla's dazzling first-quarter financial report, it not only reflects the changes in the market demand for new energy vehicles, but also makes people see the new possibility after cars enter the new energy era: no longer earn hard money..</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2022, the gross profit margin of Tesla's automotive business reached 32.9%, compared with 26.5% in the same period last year. If such a gross profit margin is placed on consumer goods companies such as Nongfu Spring and Kweichow Moutai, it may be called \"extremely poor\". But in the automobile industry, such a gross profit margin can already reach the top, and the outside world even describes it as \"record\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5230aaa95bbca4ff2372e93463f3bf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure/Photo Network, based on VRF protocol</p><p>According to statistics from Oriental Fortune Choice, there are currently about 29 vehicle companies listed on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Since most car companies have not yet released their financial reports for the first quarter of 2022, they only compare the financial reports of 2020 and 2021. data, and the gross profit margins of these car companies are difficult to compete with Tesla.</p><p>Among the 29 listed vehicle companies, 9 car companies, including SAIC Motor and Guangzhou Automobile Group, all have gross profit margins of less than 10%. BAIC Blue Valley, which once prospered in the new energy vehicle market, has a gross profit margin as low as 0.81%.</p><p><b>The gross profit margin of 17 car companies, including BYD, Geely, Great Wall and Changan, the \"top three independent automobiles\", as well as Nio and XPeng, new car manufacturers, has remained between 10% and 20%.</b></p><p>Among them, Nio, which takes the high-end route and is constantly used as a benchmark against Tesla, has a gross profit margin that ranks first among 17 car companies, reaching 18.88%, but is still far from Tesla. Even BYD, Tesla's biggest rival, has a gross profit margin of only 13.02%, a new low since 2013. Looking at the gross profit margin of its auto business alone, it is only 17.39%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.81%.</p><p>Only BAIC Motor and Li Auto have gross profit margins exceeding 21%, with 21.4% and 21.33% respectively.</p><p>Looking internationally, Tesla's gross profit margin has also left many luxury car brands behind. In 2021, the full-year gross profit margins of Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi will be 12.7%, 17.6% and 10.7% respectively.</p><p>\"Tesla's gross profit margin is much higher than that of other companies in the automotive industry. On the one hand, it is related to its higher brand positioning, and the relative selling price of its main models is relatively high; on the other hand, in the field of new energy vehicles, Tesla holds a large number of orders and has a greater say when talking about cooperation with upstream companies such as power battery companies, which also helps to reduce their costs. In addition, the increase in production capacity of the Shanghai Gigafactory has further reduced Tesla's costs. \" A person who works for a new domestic car-making company told Bullet Financial View.</p><p>Tesla also bluntly stated in its financial report that the main reason for the increase in gross profit margin is that with the increase in production capacity of the Shanghai factory, the sales and production structure of Model Y have undergone favorable changes. \"Despite rising raw material, commodity, logistics and speed-up costs, the average unit cost of Model 3 and Model Y has declined due to localized sourcing and manufacturing in China.\"</p><p>It is reported that in 2021, the delivery volume of Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory will increase by as much as 235% year-on-year to 484,100 vehicles, accounting for 51.7% of Tesla's annual delivery volume of 936,200 vehicles. When Tesla focused on the European market, the Shanghai Gigafactory played a huge role, with more than 160,000 vehicles delivered from the Shanghai factory to overseas markets such as Europe.</p><p>Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that Tesla's stock price has soared after the news that Tesla's Shanghai factory will expand production.</p><p>The aforementioned new car-making forces further pointed out that the gross profit margin of new car-making forces is generally higher than that of traditional car companies. One reason is that new car-making forces have more channels to make money, such as income from the sale of new energy points and software service income.</p><p><i><b>3</b></i></p><p><b>Car companies besiege Tesla</b></p><p>But Tesla, which seems to be making rapid progress at present, has hidden worries.</p><p><b>The biggest concern still comes from production capacity. In the early years, Tesla was mired in \"production capacity hell\" due to insufficient power battery production capacity and other reasons. Today, although Tesla's production capacity has been greatly improved, it can be said that limited production capacity is still Tesla's problem.</b></p><p>With the groundbreaking ceremony of Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory on March 22, Tesla has its fourth Gigafactory in the world after Nevada, New York and Shanghai.</p><p>It is reported that the annual output of Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory will reach 500,000 vehicles, and the main production models are Model 3 and Model Y. So far, Tesla has established its own production bases in the three major global auto markets of North America, China and Europe.</p><p>Only when global production capacity is stable can high sales, high income, and high gross profit margin be guaranteed. But at present, the production capacity of Tesla's Berlin factory can be said to be still in its infancy.</p><p>At the moment when the epidemic is repeated, the development of the automobile supply chain has been hindered, and the sharp increase in demand for new energy vehicles has conveyed to the upstream problems of chip shortages and rising raw material prices. In this context, including Tesla and Nio Car companies have encountered production suspension crises.</p><p>On April 14, XPeng He, CEO of XPeng Motors, posted on his social platform, \"If supply chain companies in Shanghai and surrounding areas can't find a way to dynamically resume work and production, all Chinese OEMs may have to stop production in May.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5975105417ae0d4fbee64573f2d3e72\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure/Photo Network, based on VRF protocol</p><p>From March 28 to April 19, Tesla's Shanghai factory experienced the longest shutdown since it was completed and put into production-22 days. Judging from the calculation time of the financial report, the impact of the suspension of production will be mainly concentrated in the second quarter.</p><p>But Musk obviously does not intend to slow down the pace of expansion. He pointed out in a conference call that Tesla vehicle deliveries in 2022 will increase by 50% compared with 2021, and may even achieve a 60% growth. Even at a 50% growth rate, Tesla will deliver more than 1.4 million vehicles in 2022.</p><p>With the expansion of production capacity, the cost input will also increase. However, at present, the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles has not dropped significantly.</p><p>Take the selling prices of lithium iron phosphate and lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the core raw materials of ternary batteries, as examples.</p><p>According to market data such as Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate with a purity of 99.5% at the beginning of 2021 was 53,000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year it was 270,000 yuan/ton. By April 12 this year, it had risen to 498,000 yuan./ton, the increase during the period was as high as 839.62%. As of May 5, the average price was 461,500 yuan/ton.</p><p>The average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micro-powder type) with a purity of 56.5% was 55,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2021. By April 12 this year, it had risen to 499,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 808.18% during the period. As of May On the 5th, the average price was 477,000 yuan/ton.</p><p>If it is still difficult to achieve a balance between supply and demand of upstream raw materials in the short term, even new energy vehicle giants like Tesla will eventually face pressure.</p><p><b>The bigger crisis lies in the fact that Tesla has more and more opponents, and the old opponents are also running wildly.</b></p><p>On the evening of April 3, BYD, Tesla's biggest rival, officially announced that it would stop the production of fuel vehicles, showing its ambitions in the field of new energy vehicles.</p><p>Nowadays, in addition to players such as BYD and new car-making forces who are diverting the market, traditional car companies, whether international car companies such as BBA, Volkswagen, and Toyota, or Chinese car companies such as SAIC, Geely, and Great Wall, are accelerating their electrification transformation and ending up entering new industries. Energy car market fighting.</p><p>Relevant data shows that in 2021, the delivery volume of Porsche Taycan in the Chinese market will reach 7,315 units, and the global sales volume will reach 41,296 units, more than twice that of 2020, even surpassing the classic Porsche 911. You know, the Porsche Taycan is expensive, starting from 880,000 yuan for the entry level, more than 1.8 million yuan for the top version, and the average selling price is one million yuan.</p><p>According to data released by Volkswagen China, the cumulative sales volume of the Volkswagen ID series in China in 2021 will be 70,625 units. In addition, in 2021, BMW Group's pure electric vehicle sales will exceed 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 133%.</p><p>In fact, the diversion effect brought about by the increase in competitors has been reflected in Tesla's market share in recent years. In 2019 and 2020, Tesla's global market share will be 17% and 16% respectively. In 2021, although Tesla still ranks first in the global electric vehicle market share, its market share has dropped to 14.4%.</p><p><b>The current Tesla still does not have a \"second leg\" to support the company. For example, Tesla is still more inclined to stay at the \"story\" level in terms of self-developed and self-produced power batteries, which have already shown its success as early as 2015 and made frequent big moves in 2019.</b></p><p>At present, the automobile industry is making great strides from the era of fuel vehicles to the era of new energy. This is an opportunity for Tesla, but under the general trend, the development window period for new car-making forces such as Tesla is also shortening. The current good results are not enough for Tesla to sit back and relax.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1646061584972","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk's Ambitions, Tesla's Troubles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk's Ambitions, Tesla's Troubles\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">子弹财观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-07 18:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Tesla's expansion pace has taken a new trend.</p><p>On May 4, foreign media reported that Tesla plans to build a new factory near the current Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory to produce Model 3 and Model Y, which is expected to increase the annual production capacity of 450,000 vehicles., becoming Tesla's \"largest automobile export center\" in the world.</p><p>Soon, \"Tesla is about to build a second factory in Shanghai\" was sent to Weibo's hot search.</p><p>However, on May 5, some media also reported that the information obtained from relevant insiders of Tesla<b>The accurate news is \"it is an expansion of production, not a second factory\".</b></p><p>But whether it is expanding production or building a second factory, it means that Tesla's production capacity will usher in further improvement. What's more, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has set a goal of \"50% year-on-year growth, and possibly even 60% growth\" for Tesla's delivery volume in 2022.</p><p>Musk's revealed ambitions undoubtedly stimulated Tesla's stock price to rise. After the news of production expansion flowed out, as of the close on May 4, Eastern Time, Tesla's stock price rose 4.77% to close at US $952.62, with a total market value of 986.9 billion US dollars.</p><p>However, concerns about the ambitious Musk and his Tesla have never stopped.</p><p><i><b>1</b></i></p><p><b>The big winner of new energy vehicles</b></p><p>As the automobile industry moves towards the new energy era, Tesla is undoubtedly the most watched new energy car company in the world, and its founder elon musk has also become the biggest winner. With Tesla, he successfully reached the top of the world's richest man.</p><p>According to Forbes China data, Musk's wealth will increase by US $68 billion in 2021. On the \"2022 Global Billionaires List\" released by Forbes on April 5, based on the stock price calculation as of March 11, 2022, Musk surpassed Amazon founder Jeff Bezos (net worth 171 billion US dollars) with a net worth of 219 billion US dollars), becoming the richest man in the world.</p><p>During the 3 months of the first quarter of 2022, Tesla also made huge profits.</p><p>Tesla's financial report shows that in the first quarter, its total revenue was US $18.756 billion, an increase of 81% from US $10.389 billion in the same period last year, of which automotive business revenue reached US $16.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 87%. Tesla's net profit in the first quarter reached US $3.318 billion, a surge of 657.53% from US $438 million in the same period last year.</p><p>This performance exceeded outside expectations. Previously, Wall Street expected Tesla's revenue and profit to be about US $18 billion and US $2.6 billion respectively.</p><p><b>For the increase in car sales revenue, Tesla attributed it to higher car deliveries and higher single-vehicle prices.</b></p><p>In the financial report, Tesla pointed out that in the three months ended March 31, 2022, cash deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y increased by 111,915, and cash deliveries of Model S and Model X increased by 10,305 year-on-year.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, with the price increase of upstream raw materials in the new energy vehicle industry, many new energy vehicle brands such as Tesla, BYD, XPeng, Nio and WM Motor have set off a wave of price increases, ranging from several thousand yuan to tens of thousands of yuan.</p><p>In the eight days from March 10th to 17th this year, Tesla frantically raised prices three times, raising the prices of some domestically produced Model 3 and Model Y models, with the price increase range ranging from 10,000 to 30,000 yuan. Among them, the price of the Model Y high-performance version alone increased by 30,000 yuan in a few days.</p><p>According to Tesla's official website, as of May 5, the price of the Model Y high-performance version was 417,900 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95be45ee93584e726440c8907985f0e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure/Tesla official</p><p><b>At the same time, Tesla also raised product prices in the United States, with price increases ranging from 2,000 to 12,500 US dollars.</b></p><p>This is quite different from Tesla's moves that are eager to seize the market in 2020: In 2020, Tesla lowered product prices many times. In January, Tesla lowered the price of the Model 3 base car made in China from 356,000 yuan to 324,000 yuan, and the subsidy price is 299,000 yuan. In May, after the announcement of the 300,000 yuan subsidy threshold for new energy vehicles, Tesla adjusted the starting price of the Model 3 standard battery life upgraded version to 291,800 yuan, and the subsidy price was as low as 271,600 yuan...</p><p>What is reflected behind this is the increase in demand for the entire new energy vehicle market.</p><p>Relevant data shows that in 2021, the global annual sales of new energy vehicles will be 6.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 108%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by more than 160% year-on-year, with sales reaching 3.52 million units.</p><p>For the whole year of 2021, Tesla delivered 936,200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 87.4%. From January to March this year, Tesla delivered 310,048 vehicles, about one-third of the full-year delivery volume in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 69%.</p><p>On the day of the release of this eye-catching financial report (April 21), Tesla's intraday share price once rose by 12%. Although the increase narrowed to 3.23% at the close due to the decline of the broader market, the share price still closed at $1,008.78/share.</p><p><i><b>2</b></i></p><p><b>Cars no longer make hard money?</b></p><p><b>Behind Tesla's dazzling first-quarter financial report, it not only reflects the changes in the market demand for new energy vehicles, but also makes people see the new possibility after cars enter the new energy era: no longer earn hard money..</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2022, the gross profit margin of Tesla's automotive business reached 32.9%, compared with 26.5% in the same period last year. If such a gross profit margin is placed on consumer goods companies such as Nongfu Spring and Kweichow Moutai, it may be called \"extremely poor\". But in the automobile industry, such a gross profit margin can already reach the top, and the outside world even describes it as \"record\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5230aaa95bbca4ff2372e93463f3bf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure/Photo Network, based on VRF protocol</p><p>According to statistics from Oriental Fortune Choice, there are currently about 29 vehicle companies listed on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Since most car companies have not yet released their financial reports for the first quarter of 2022, they only compare the financial reports of 2020 and 2021. data, and the gross profit margins of these car companies are difficult to compete with Tesla.</p><p>Among the 29 listed vehicle companies, 9 car companies, including SAIC Motor and Guangzhou Automobile Group, all have gross profit margins of less than 10%. BAIC Blue Valley, which once prospered in the new energy vehicle market, has a gross profit margin as low as 0.81%.</p><p><b>The gross profit margin of 17 car companies, including BYD, Geely, Great Wall and Changan, the \"top three independent automobiles\", as well as Nio and XPeng, new car manufacturers, has remained between 10% and 20%.</b></p><p>Among them, Nio, which takes the high-end route and is constantly used as a benchmark against Tesla, has a gross profit margin that ranks first among 17 car companies, reaching 18.88%, but is still far from Tesla. Even BYD, Tesla's biggest rival, has a gross profit margin of only 13.02%, a new low since 2013. Looking at the gross profit margin of its auto business alone, it is only 17.39%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.81%.</p><p>Only BAIC Motor and Li Auto have gross profit margins exceeding 21%, with 21.4% and 21.33% respectively.</p><p>Looking internationally, Tesla's gross profit margin has also left many luxury car brands behind. In 2021, the full-year gross profit margins of Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi will be 12.7%, 17.6% and 10.7% respectively.</p><p>\"Tesla's gross profit margin is much higher than that of other companies in the automotive industry. On the one hand, it is related to its higher brand positioning, and the relative selling price of its main models is relatively high; on the other hand, in the field of new energy vehicles, Tesla holds a large number of orders and has a greater say when talking about cooperation with upstream companies such as power battery companies, which also helps to reduce their costs. In addition, the increase in production capacity of the Shanghai Gigafactory has further reduced Tesla's costs. \" A person who works for a new domestic car-making company told Bullet Financial View.</p><p>Tesla also bluntly stated in its financial report that the main reason for the increase in gross profit margin is that with the increase in production capacity of the Shanghai factory, the sales and production structure of Model Y have undergone favorable changes. \"Despite rising raw material, commodity, logistics and speed-up costs, the average unit cost of Model 3 and Model Y has declined due to localized sourcing and manufacturing in China.\"</p><p>It is reported that in 2021, the delivery volume of Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory will increase by as much as 235% year-on-year to 484,100 vehicles, accounting for 51.7% of Tesla's annual delivery volume of 936,200 vehicles. When Tesla focused on the European market, the Shanghai Gigafactory played a huge role, with more than 160,000 vehicles delivered from the Shanghai factory to overseas markets such as Europe.</p><p>Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that Tesla's stock price has soared after the news that Tesla's Shanghai factory will expand production.</p><p>The aforementioned new car-making forces further pointed out that the gross profit margin of new car-making forces is generally higher than that of traditional car companies. One reason is that new car-making forces have more channels to make money, such as income from the sale of new energy points and software service income.</p><p><i><b>3</b></i></p><p><b>Car companies besiege Tesla</b></p><p>But Tesla, which seems to be making rapid progress at present, has hidden worries.</p><p><b>The biggest concern still comes from production capacity. In the early years, Tesla was mired in \"production capacity hell\" due to insufficient power battery production capacity and other reasons. Today, although Tesla's production capacity has been greatly improved, it can be said that limited production capacity is still Tesla's problem.</b></p><p>With the groundbreaking ceremony of Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory on March 22, Tesla has its fourth Gigafactory in the world after Nevada, New York and Shanghai.</p><p>It is reported that the annual output of Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory will reach 500,000 vehicles, and the main production models are Model 3 and Model Y. So far, Tesla has established its own production bases in the three major global auto markets of North America, China and Europe.</p><p>Only when global production capacity is stable can high sales, high income, and high gross profit margin be guaranteed. But at present, the production capacity of Tesla's Berlin factory can be said to be still in its infancy.</p><p>At the moment when the epidemic is repeated, the development of the automobile supply chain has been hindered, and the sharp increase in demand for new energy vehicles has conveyed to the upstream problems of chip shortages and rising raw material prices. In this context, including Tesla and Nio Car companies have encountered production suspension crises.</p><p>On April 14, XPeng He, CEO of XPeng Motors, posted on his social platform, \"If supply chain companies in Shanghai and surrounding areas can't find a way to dynamically resume work and production, all Chinese OEMs may have to stop production in May.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5975105417ae0d4fbee64573f2d3e72\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure/Photo Network, based on VRF protocol</p><p>From March 28 to April 19, Tesla's Shanghai factory experienced the longest shutdown since it was completed and put into production-22 days. Judging from the calculation time of the financial report, the impact of the suspension of production will be mainly concentrated in the second quarter.</p><p>But Musk obviously does not intend to slow down the pace of expansion. He pointed out in a conference call that Tesla vehicle deliveries in 2022 will increase by 50% compared with 2021, and may even achieve a 60% growth. Even at a 50% growth rate, Tesla will deliver more than 1.4 million vehicles in 2022.</p><p>With the expansion of production capacity, the cost input will also increase. However, at present, the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles has not dropped significantly.</p><p>Take the selling prices of lithium iron phosphate and lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the core raw materials of ternary batteries, as examples.</p><p>According to market data such as Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate with a purity of 99.5% at the beginning of 2021 was 53,000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year it was 270,000 yuan/ton. By April 12 this year, it had risen to 498,000 yuan./ton, the increase during the period was as high as 839.62%. As of May 5, the average price was 461,500 yuan/ton.</p><p>The average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micro-powder type) with a purity of 56.5% was 55,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2021. By April 12 this year, it had risen to 499,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 808.18% during the period. As of May On the 5th, the average price was 477,000 yuan/ton.</p><p>If it is still difficult to achieve a balance between supply and demand of upstream raw materials in the short term, even new energy vehicle giants like Tesla will eventually face pressure.</p><p><b>The bigger crisis lies in the fact that Tesla has more and more opponents, and the old opponents are also running wildly.</b></p><p>On the evening of April 3, BYD, Tesla's biggest rival, officially announced that it would stop the production of fuel vehicles, showing its ambitions in the field of new energy vehicles.</p><p>Nowadays, in addition to players such as BYD and new car-making forces who are diverting the market, traditional car companies, whether international car companies such as BBA, Volkswagen, and Toyota, or Chinese car companies such as SAIC, Geely, and Great Wall, are accelerating their electrification transformation and ending up entering new industries. Energy car market fighting.</p><p>Relevant data shows that in 2021, the delivery volume of Porsche Taycan in the Chinese market will reach 7,315 units, and the global sales volume will reach 41,296 units, more than twice that of 2020, even surpassing the classic Porsche 911. You know, the Porsche Taycan is expensive, starting from 880,000 yuan for the entry level, more than 1.8 million yuan for the top version, and the average selling price is one million yuan.</p><p>According to data released by Volkswagen China, the cumulative sales volume of the Volkswagen ID series in China in 2021 will be 70,625 units. In addition, in 2021, BMW Group's pure electric vehicle sales will exceed 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 133%.</p><p>In fact, the diversion effect brought about by the increase in competitors has been reflected in Tesla's market share in recent years. In 2019 and 2020, Tesla's global market share will be 17% and 16% respectively. In 2021, although Tesla still ranks first in the global electric vehicle market share, its market share has dropped to 14.4%.</p><p><b>The current Tesla still does not have a \"second leg\" to support the company. For example, Tesla is still more inclined to stay at the \"story\" level in terms of self-developed and self-produced power batteries, which have already shown its success as early as 2015 and made frequent big moves in 2019.</b></p><p>At present, the automobile industry is making great strides from the era of fuel vehicles to the era of new energy. This is an opportunity for Tesla, but under the general trend, the development window period for new car-making forces such as Tesla is also shortening. The current good results are not enough for Tesla to sit back and relax.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cPpz6F_nLvlHL_bzwAe4Ow\">子弹财观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff460a3c38d8370653067c1948c76ac","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cPpz6F_nLvlHL_bzwAe4Ow","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179424055","content_text":"特斯拉的扩张步伐又有了新动向。5月4日，有外媒报道称，特斯拉计划在当前的特斯拉上海超级工厂附近建设一个新工厂，用于生产Model 3和Model Y，预计可增加45万辆汽车的年产能，成为特斯拉在全球“最大的汽车出口中心”。很快，“特斯拉即将在上海建设第二工厂”即被送上微博热搜。不过，5月5日，亦有媒体报道称，从特斯拉内部相关人士处获得的准确消息是“是扩产，非第二工厂”。但不管是扩产还是建设第二工厂，都意味着特斯拉的产能将迎来进一步提升。更何况特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克曾给2022年的特斯拉交付量立下了“同比增长50%、甚至有可能实现60%增长”的目标。马斯克外露的野心无疑也刺激了特斯拉股价上涨，在扩产消息流出后，截至美东时间5月4日收盘，特斯拉股价上涨4.77%，报收于952.62美元，总市值9869亿美元。然而，对于踌躇满志的马斯克和他的特斯拉，外界的担忧也从未停止。1新能源汽车的大赢家在汽车产业迈向新能源时代的当下，特斯拉无疑已是当下全球最受关注的新能源车企，而它的创始人埃隆·马斯克也成了最大赢家，凭借特斯拉成功登顶世界首富。据福布斯中国数据，2021年，马斯克的财富增加了680亿美元。在4月5日福布斯发布的《2022全球亿万富豪榜》上，根据截止2022年3月11日股价计算，马斯克以2190亿美元的身家超越亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯（身家1710亿美元 ），成为全球首富。在2022年第一季度3个月的时间里，特斯拉也赚取了巨额利润。特斯拉财报显示，第一季度，其总营收为187.56亿美元，较上年同期的103.89亿美元增长81%，其中，汽车业务收入达到168.6亿美元，同比增长87%。特斯拉一季度净利润则达到33.18亿美元，较上年同期的4.38亿美元暴涨657.53%。这份业绩超出外界预期，此前，华尔街预计特斯拉的营收、利润分别为180亿美元、26亿美元左右。对于汽车销售收入的增长，特斯拉将其归功于汽车交付量增加和单车价格的上涨。在财报中，特斯拉指出，截至2022年3月31日的三个月中，Model 3和Model Y的现金交付增加了111915笔，Model S和Model X的现金交付同比增加了10305笔。今年以来，随着新能源汽车产业上游原材料涨价，特斯拉、比亚迪、小鹏、蔚来和威马等众多新能源汽车品牌掀起涨价潮，提价区间在数千元至数万元不等。在今年3月10日-17日8天时间里，特斯拉堪称疯狂地进行了3次提价，上调部分国产Model 3、Model Y车型售价，涨价区间在1万至3万元不等。其中，仅Model Y高性能版一款车型在几天时间里即涨价3万元。特斯拉官网显示，截止5月5日，Model Y高性能版的售价为41.79万元。图 / 特斯拉官方同时，特斯拉在美国同样上调了产品售价，涨价区间从2千到1.25万美元不等。这与2020年迫切想要抢占市场的特斯拉举措大相径庭：2020年，特斯拉多次下调产品售价，1月，特斯拉将中国制造的Model 3基础车价从35.6万元下调至32.4万元，补贴后售价为29.9万元。5月，在新能源汽车30万元补贴门槛公布后，特斯拉将Model 3标准续航升级版的起售价调整到了29.18万元，补贴后售价低至27.16万元……这背后折射的，是整个新能源汽车市场需求的提升。相关数据显示，2021年，全球新能源汽车年销量为675万辆，同比增长108%。其中，中国新能源汽车产销同比增长均超过160%，销量达352万辆。2021年全年，特斯拉交付量达到93.62万辆，同比增长87.4%。今年1-3月，特斯拉交付量为310048辆，约为2021年全年交付量的三分之一，同比增长达69%。这份可称亮眼的财报发布当日（4月21日），特斯拉盘中股价一度上涨12%，虽收盘时涨幅因大盘下跌收窄至3.23%，股价仍报收于1008.78美元/股。2汽车不再赚辛苦钱？在特斯拉这份亮眼的一季度财报背后，折射的不仅是新能源汽车市场需求的变迁，更进一步地，让人看到了汽车走进新能源时代后新的可能性：不再赚辛苦钱。2022年第一季度，特斯拉汽车业务的毛利率达到了32.9%，而上年同期，这一数据为26.5%。这样的毛利率如果放在农夫山泉、贵州茅台这样的消费品公司身上，可能称得上“极差”。但放在汽车产业，这样的毛利率已可登顶，外界甚至用“创纪录”来形容。图 /摄图网，基于VRF协议「子弹财观」根据东方财富Choice数据统计，当前，在A股和港股上市的整车企业约有29家，鉴于多数车企尚未发布2022年第一季度财报，因此仅对比了2020年、2021年的财务数据，而这些车企的毛利率均难以与特斯拉比拼。29家上市整车企业中，包括上汽集团、广汽集团在内的9家车企，毛利率均低于10%，曾经在新能源汽车市场春风得意的北汽蓝谷，毛利率更是低至0.81%。包括比亚迪、“汽车自主三强”吉利、长城和长安，以及造车新势力蔚来、小鹏在内的17家车企，毛利率保持在10%-20%之间。其中，走高端路线、被不断拿来与特斯拉对标的蔚来，毛利率虽然在17家车企中居首，达到18.88%，但与特斯拉仍相距较远。连特斯拉的最大对手比亚迪，毛利率也只有13.02%，创下2013年以来的新低，单看其汽车业务的毛利率，也只有17.39%，同比下降7.81%。毛利率超过21%的只有北京汽车、理想汽车两家，分别为21.4%、21.33%。而放眼国际，特斯拉这样的毛利率，也将一众豪车品牌甩到了身后。2021年，奔驰、宝马和奥迪的全年毛利率分别为12.7%、17.6%和10.7%。“特斯拉远高于汽车行业其它公司的毛利率，一方面与它较高的品牌定位有关，主销车型相对售价比较高；另一方面，在新能源汽车领域，特斯拉手握大量订单，在与上游企业比如动力电池企业谈合作时，拥有更大话语权，这也有助于其成本的降低。另外，上海超级工厂的产能提升，也近一步降低了特斯拉的成本。”一位就职于国内某造车新势力企业人士对「子弹财观」表示。而特斯拉在财报中亦直言，毛利率增长的主要原因是随着上海工厂的产能增加，Model Y的销售和生产结构发生了有利的变化。“尽管原材料、商品、物流和提速成本上升，但由于中国的本地化采购和制造，Model 3和Model Y的单位平均成本有所下降。”据悉，2021年，特斯拉上海超级工厂的交付量同比增长高达235%，达到48.41万辆，在特斯拉全年交付量93.62万辆中占比达到51.7%。在特斯拉发力欧洲市场之时，上海超级工厂更是发挥巨大作用，超过16万辆车从上海工厂交付至欧洲等海外市场。因此，也不难理解在特斯拉上海工厂将扩产的消息出现后，特斯拉股价的大涨。前述造车新势力人士进一步指出，造车新势力毛利率普遍高于传统车企，一个原因还在于造车新势力有更多赚钱渠道，比如售卖新能源积分的收入、软件服务收入等。3车企围攻特斯拉但当前看似高歌猛进的特斯拉，却未尝没有隐忧。最大的忧虑仍然来自于产能。早年间，特斯拉就曾因动力电池产能不足等原因深陷“产能地狱”。如今，虽然特斯拉的产能已得到极大提升，但可以说，产能受限仍然是特斯拉的困扰所在。随着3月22日特斯拉的柏林超级工厂开工仪式的举办，特斯拉继内华达州、纽约和上海之后，在全球拥有了第4家超级工厂。据悉，特斯拉柏林超级工厂年产量将达到50万辆，主要生产车型为Model 3和Model Y。至此，特斯拉在北美、中国、欧洲三大全球车市都建立了自己的生产基地。只有全球产能稳定了，高销量、高收入、高毛利率才有保障。但当下，特斯拉柏林工厂的产能可以说尚且处于起步阶段。而在疫情反复的当下，汽车供应链发展受阻，新能源汽车需求剧增传达到上游带来的芯片短缺、原材料涨价的问题仍未解决，在此背景下，包括特斯拉、蔚来在内的车企都曾遭遇停产危机。4月14日，小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏在其社交平台发文指出，“如果上海和周边的供应链企业还无法找到动态复工复产的方式，五月份可能中国所有的整车厂都要停工停产了。”图 /摄图网，基于VRF协议从3月28日到4月19日，特斯拉上海工厂更是经历了自建成投产以来最长的一次停产——22天。而从财报计算时间来看，停产带来的影响将主要集中在第二季度。但马斯克显然并不打算放慢扩张的脚步，其曾在电话会议上指出，2022年特斯拉汽车交付量将比2021年增长50%，甚至有可能实现60%的增长。即便按50%增长率计算，特斯拉2022年汽车交付量也将超过140万辆。随着产能的扩张，成本投入也必将随之提升。但在当前，新能源汽车原材料价格仍未见明显回落。以磷酸铁锂和三元电池的核心原材料——碳酸锂和氢氧化锂的售价为例。据上海有色金属网等市场数据，2021年初纯度为99.5%的电池级碳酸锂均价为5.3万元/吨，年末为27万元/吨，到今年4月12日，已上涨到了49.8万元/吨，期间涨幅高达839.62%，截止5月5日，均价为46.15万元/吨。纯度为56.5%的电池级氢氧化锂（微粉型）2021年初均价为5.5万元/吨，到今年4月12日已涨到49.95万元/吨，期间涨幅高达808.18%，截止5月5日，均价为47.7万元/吨。若上游原材料短期内供需仍难以实现平衡，即便如特斯拉这样的新能源汽车巨头，也终将面临压力。更大的危机还在于：特斯拉的对手越来越多了，而老对手也在卯足了劲狂奔。4月3日晚，特斯拉的最大对手比亚迪正式宣布停止燃油汽车整车生产，展露出在新能源汽车领域的野心。如今，除了比亚迪、造车新势力等玩家在分流市场，传统车企不管是BBA、大众、丰田等国际车企还是上汽、吉利、长城等中国车企，都在加速电动化转型，下场进入新能源车市拼杀。相关数据显示，2021年，保时捷Taycan在中国市场交付量达到了7315辆，全球销量41296辆，是2020年的两倍多，甚至超越了经典的保时捷 911。要知道，保时捷Taycan售价不菲，入门级88万元起，顶配180多万元，平均售价百万元级别。另据大众中国公布的数据，2021年大众ID系列在华累计销量为70625辆。此外，2021年，宝马集团纯电动汽车销量超过10万辆，同比增长133%。事实上，竞争对手增加带来的分流效应，在这几年特斯拉的市占率上已有所体现。2019年、2020年，特斯拉全球市占率分别为17%、16%。2021年，特斯拉全球电动车市占率虽仍居第一位，但市场份额已降至14.4％。而当前的特斯拉，仍然没有“第二条腿”来支撑公司前行。比如，特斯拉早在2015年即已显山露水、2019年更是大动作频发的自研自产动力电池方面，现在仍然更倾向于停留在“故事”层面。当下，汽车产业正从燃油车时代大步迈向新能源时代，这是特斯拉们的机会，但大势之下，属于特斯拉等造车新势力的发展窗口期也正在缩短，当下的好成绩，还不足以让特斯拉高枕无忧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9015310864,"gmtCreate":1649425897673,"gmtModify":1676534509966,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9015310864","repostId":"1135927495","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135927495","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国专业的高端财富管理机构，专注于高净值客户服务和大类资产配置。百万精英人士都在关注，多次入选全国自媒体20强榜单。每日精选7篇文章与您分享，涵盖政经、投资、历史和生活，让您畅享思想与财富的盛宴。公司网址：www.licai.com","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格上财富","id":"1054268451","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb0d9ca821a4b8584db1257562b60a6"},"pubTimestamp":1649422498,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135927495?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-08 20:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"In-depth good article | Why can Buffett be determined for a lifetime?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135927495","media":"格上财富","summary":"值得一提的是，本文的作者曾在2015年在巴菲特股东大会上，向巴菲特提问：“已经管理了那么多年的伯克希尔，为什么还这么笃定、有激情？”大家猜一猜巴菲特是怎么回答的？作为大股东的巴菲特，更应该称他为资本家，而不是仅仅是投资专家。巴菲特对企业进行估值并进行投资有12条原则。管理三原则的核心是，巴菲特希望能够找到和他一样的管理者，能够有效配置公司资本，真正为股东的利益负责。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>When it comes to \"stock god\" Buffett, everyone will definitely think of his famous saying: \"When others are afraid, I am greedy, and when others are greedy, I am afraid.\"</p><p>Why can he be so different and always be right? Where does his courage and courage for value investing come from? And how did he create a powerful<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway?</p><p>I believe that after reading so many articles about Buffett, this one must be the most unique and impressive one.</p><p>The article not only has an in-depth and systematic analysis of the essential logic, breakdown points and iterative feedback of Buffett and Berkshire, but also a summary of their life beliefs, work motivation, and wealth concepts, which allows us to see a 90-year-old passionate soul.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the author of this article once asked Buffett at the Buffett shareholder meeting in 2015: \"Why is Berkshire, which has been managing for so many years, so determined and passionate?\"</p><p>Guess what Buffett answered?</p><p><b>1. Who is Berkshire Hathaway?</b></p><p>Let's take a look at the brief situation of this US-listed company:</p><p>On April 6, 2022, the company's stock price was US $517,002, the highest stock price in history, with a total market value of US $761.6 billion. In the 2022 Fortune Global 500, Berkshire Hathaway ranked 11th.</p><p>If you invested $10,000 in Berkshire (BRK) stock in 1965, you would have $364 million in 2021. From 1965 to 2021, the annualized compound interest over the past 56 years was 20.1%, far exceeding the 10.5% performance of the Standard 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b8cbbfe64ee41a78836cad25dfc566\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The total assets managed by Berkshire Hathaway are about US $1 trillion, of which 150 billion are liquid assets such as cash or bonds, 350 billion are holdings of stocks, and 500 billion are equity investments, which control the transportation, energy and communications of the United States. and other key infrastructure, as well as many traditional enterprises with very abundant cash flow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a613b2a1296919c4d72908f39d9e1045\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Guess how many people are at the headquarters of a company managing so many assets?</p><p>25 people!</p><p>The boss of Berkshire Hathaway is the famous Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc63f94e9fa2feae9706da13776f20e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Mr. Ba, a Virgo born on August 30, 1930, invested in stocks for the first time at the age of 11, studied under value investing guru Benjamin Graham at the age of 19, and started his own limited partnership investment company at the age of 27.</p><p>According to Forbes ranking data, in 2022, the 92-year-old's personal wealth will be US $99.6 billion, ranking sixth in the world. However, he has donated nearly 90% of his wealth to society.</p><p><b>2. What is Berkshire Hathaway's \"one\"?</b></p><p>What is Berkshire's \"one\" and how is its value proposition different from other investment companies? Why does the public favor Buffett alone among investment gurus such as Peter Lynch, Soros, Fisher, and Dario and respect him as the \"stock god\"?</p><p><b>Buffett dissolves partnership investment firm</b></p><p>After returning to Omaha from Graham's firm, Buffett opened his own investment firm in 1957, starting with an AUM of $105,000. Buffett told his partners that he wanted to beat the Dow by 10 percentage points a year.</p><p>As a result, from 1957 to 1961, the Dow rose by 75% and the partnership rose by 251%. In the 10 years to 1966, the Dow rose by 123% and the partnership rose by 1156%. Buffett greatly exceeded his goal, and the actual performance was annualized. 35% income.</p><p>In 1969, Buffett dissolved the partnership investment enterprise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14a9bd72d41a5981c3a77c98acb972e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What is puzzling is that with such good performance, we should raise funds vigorously. Why should we dissolve the partnership investment enterprise?</p><p>Buffett said, \"I know that I don't want to manage other people's money in an environment where I don't think I can do well, or I have to do well.\"</p><p>1969 was indeed a crazy market, and Buffett was unwilling to change his inner investment rules.</p><p>After dissolving the partnership investment enterprise, he devoted all his energy to Berkshire Hathaway, a textile enterprise that seemed to have \"failed\".</p><p><b>What is the difference between Berkshire and ordinary fund companies?</b></p><p>Berkshire is essentially a capital holding company that manages its own money, while most of the money managed by general fund companies is investors' money.</p><p>This makes Berkshire's view of funds fundamentally different from that of ordinary fund companies-Berkshire regards its own funds as capital.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda28251654185c96454258c522159b3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to \"Fundamentals of Western Economics\", \"Capital is a part of the means of production and the source of assets for enterprises to purchase assets needed for production and business activities. It is investors' investment in enterprises and appears on the right side of the balance sheet. The essence of capital is to make profits.\"</p><p>There is a simple formula, if you don't consider the cost of capital:<b>Long-term capital value = capital investment * (1 + return on capital) ^ time</b></p><p>When Berkshire manages its own capital, compared with other asset management companies, there is no risk of capital redemption, and it can operate sustainably. What the company earns is the value of capital cycle appreciation.</p><p>However, the funds of asset management companies may not be operated and managed for a long time due to market fluctuations, investor redemption, or fund expiration.</p><p><b>For the two models, the capital market will also give different market values.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>It manages nearly $10 trillion in assets with a market capitalization of 112.3 billion, while Berkshire manages $1 trillion in assets with a market capitalization of $761.6 billion.</b></p><p>So,<b>Fund companies belong to asset management companies, and their core is short-term investment value; Berkshire is a capital holding company that pursues long-term capital value.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929513f96cdc93e8f1f6aff901425a4e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a major shareholder, Buffett should be called a capitalist rather than just an investment expert.</p><p><b>3. What did Berkshire Hathaway break through?</b></p><p>What does Berkshire break through in capital management that makes it so different?</p><p>Since it is capital management, let's go back to Marx's Capital and see what the essence of capital is.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819fc82fe96941337cb8a558b6cde057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to Marx's \"Das Kapital\": \"One of the essential characteristics of capital is the mobility of capital. The key to the reason why capital can increase in value and bring surplus value is that it is in endless movement, constantly moving from the circulation field to the production field, and then from the production field to the circulation field,<b>This uninterrupted movement of capital is a necessary prerequisite and condition for capital to gain value. Once it stops moving, capital cannot increase in value. \"</b></p><p>The most important thing for capital appreciation is to improve the efficiency of capital movement. The higher the efficiency of capital movement, the faster the capital appreciation.</p><p>Marx also mentioned: \"The conversion of surplus value into profit is based on the premise that the surplus value rate is converted into profit rate, that is, with the help of profit rate, the surplus value that has been converted into the excess of cost price is further converted into the balance of prepaid total capital exceeding its own value during a certain turnover period. In short,<b>Surplus value is an intrinsic essence or entity, while profit is an external phenomenon or form. \"</b></p><p><b>So according to Marx's theory, is a company with a high net profit margin necessarily a good company?</b></p><p>Buffett once said: \"There are three most important things in investing. The first is to keep the principal, the second is to keep the principal, and the third is to always keep the first two in mind.\"</p><p>Let's take a look at what Buffett's first teacher, Benjamin Graham, said-\"Investment is an act that can be analyzed, promise the safety of principal and provide satisfactory returns. What cannot meet these requirements is speculation.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89dfa71e7e4773ac3c60ee71e5927dc7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>And he mentioned \"<b>Margin of safety</b>\"This important word:\" People are willing to pay any price for stocks, regardless of quantitative analysis at all. Any price marked by market optimism seems to be worth the money. At the top of this madness, the line between investment and speculation is blurred. We should choose stocks with a margin of safety. \"</p><p>According to a simple mathematical equation:<b>Margin of safety = enterprise value-enterprise price</b>It can be seen that the enterprise price can be found in the market, so how to correctly evaluate the enterprise value becomes the top priority.</p><p>At this time, we got a vocabulary that we are very familiar with-value investment, which is an effective evaluation of the true value of an enterprise.</p><p>Buffett has 12 principles for valuing businesses and investing in them.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c568e1c94d873abf3872d07f97244\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The core of the three principles of enterprise is</b>, to make enterprise value judgment simple, and don't vote if you are not familiar with it. He said: \"I won't challenge difficult movements, just like hurdles in sports meetings. There is a 1-foot pole, but I will never choose 7 feet.\"</p><p><b>The core of the three principles of management is</b>, Buffett hopes to find managers like him who can effectively allocate the company's capital and be truly responsible for the interests of shareholders.</p><p><b>The core of the four principles of finance is</b>, how to find indicators and indicator groups that correctly reflect the operating capabilities of enterprises, calculate the real \"shareholder earnings\", and find enterprises with high profit margins.</p><p><b>The core of the two principles of market is</b>, use the conversion of future cash flow to determine the market value of the enterprise, and then according to the margin of safety, whether it can be purchased at a discounted price relative to the market value of the enterprise.</p><p>I went to check several companies that Buffett has held for many years, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">Washington Post</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, Gaike Insurance, Metropolis and other enterprises, even if not all 12 principles are applied, most of them are in compliance.</p><p><b>So, in the second question, \"What did Berkshire break through\", the answer is enterprise value with a margin of safety.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/277c6234e6288f79b3610d9650bb1627\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. What is Berkshire Hathaway's iterative feedback?</b></p><p>As a diversified holding company, Berkshire manages nearly one trillion U.S. dollars of assets. In the unlisted part, most of the companies are wholly owned or consolidated, while in the listed part, the shareholding ratio is mostly relatively large shareholders. Or have board seats.</p><p>Various Berkshire subsidiaries generate significant cash flows, which are provided to the Omaha headquarters. This cash comes from the float of the huge insurance business and the operating profits of wholly-owned non-financial subsidiaries.</p><p>Berkshire reinvests this cash as an element of capital in opportunities that generate more cash.</p><p>Each subsidiary has a talented management team responsible for daily work, so that Buffett can concentrate 100% of his energy and focus on efficient capital allocation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61330d054d1b7f536760a6ec2b4882b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>How does Buffett allocate capital efficiently?</b></p><p>John Whitmore has such a performance formula: P = P-i, where the first P is performance, which means effectiveness, the second P is Potential, which means Potential, and i is interference, which means interference.</p><p>Most human potentials are the same, but the interference values vary greatly. Our efficiency is low, not because of low potential, but because of too much interference.</p><p>So, how does Buffett reduce distractions?</p><p><b>Minimalist Life in Omaha</b></p><p>First of all, Buffett doesn't live in New York in the east or Los Angeles in the west, but in Omaha, Nebraska in the middle. His office is an office building that has been used for 60 years, and only half a floor is rented; The house I live in is a house I bought 60 years ago for $50,000. Reading annual reports and making phone calls quietly in the office every day has become Buffett's lifelong habit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc10f30a7dd991037d5f3e2baa31b325\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Concentrated investments to reduce the number of decisions</b></p><p>Based on Markowitz's modern portfolio theory, Eugene Fama's efficient market hypothesis and Sharp's capital pricing model, most asset managers will regard volatility as the biggest risk in the capital market, so dispersion and non-correlation are the most important ideas to control risks. For example, to dig a pool, choose a cut 1 kilometer wide and make a cut 1 meter deep.</p><p>And Buffett believes that<b>The biggest risk is the loss of the intrinsic value of the enterprise</b>, if the value is gone, the margin of safety is gone, and the stock should be sold. When choosing excellent value enterprises, there must be not many enterprises that can be thoroughly analyzed. Therefore, Buffett chose an incision 1 meter wide and a depth of 1 kilometer when digging a pool.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77627ec8ccc4f3066312ba73226eabd6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In the midst of concentration and decentralization, Buffett chose an incredible concentration of shareholding, reducing the number of decisions and mistakes. Buffett's transaction is to hold a good company all the time in order not to trade, which is a \"difficult but right thing\".</b></p><p><b>Mathematical probability theory as the basis</b></p><p>When it comes to decision-making, Buffett said: \"All we have to do is multiply the probability of profit by the number of possible profits, minus the probability of loss and multiply the number of possible losses.\"</p><p>In 1654,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTH\">Bryce</a>Some correspondence between Pascal and Pierre de Fermat laid the foundation of probability theory. Fermat used algebraic methods and Pascal used geometric methods. The work of Pascal and Fermat marked the beginning of decision theory, which is the process of deciding what to do when you are not sure what is going to happen.</p><p>Bayer analysis provides a mathematical program that adjusts our original expectations to change the corresponding probability according to the newly obtained information. Bayer analysis is used in universities to help students learn to make decisions. In the classroom, it is called decision tree theory. Munger said, \"At Harvard Business School, everything you learned in the first year, together, is actually decision tree theory.</p><p>Shannon creatively adopted the method of probability theory to study problems in communication in The Mathematical Theory of Communication in 1948. On the basis of Shannon's information theory, mathematician Kelly established the optimization formula.</p><p>In 1956, Kelly wrote \"A New Interpretation of Information Rate\", proposing an optimized growth strategy: if you know your probability of success, you know the proportion of how much to allocate. The formula is: 2p-1 = X. If the probability of winning is 55%, then 2 * 55%-1 = 10%. At this time, the proportion of 10% should be configured; If the probability of winning is 75%, then 275%-1 = 50%, at which time the proportion of 50% should be allocated.</p><p>Buffett is often very cautious when applying Kelly's optimization formula. When the result is a 20% allocation ratio, he will appropriately reduce the ratio on this basis, usually 1/2 or 1/3 of the original value.</p><p>So look at Buffett's investment decision-making process from the perspective of probability theory, as shown in the figure below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e64eba4e2c9f130f862467a0165a370f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Shielding Mr. Market's Quote Impact</b></p><p>Looking at a stock like this in the picture below, you may feel that the volatility is too great.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c1ae058eee580faf61d4afc29ce028b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But looking at this stock, you will feel that the earlier you drive, the better.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32802a41a2ffc564de009d457f6f7e27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But these two pictures are actually the same stock. The famous Apple company only observes the stock price at different times and frequencies.</p><p>Buffett said:<b>\"Investment is like playing baseball. If you want to score, you must focus on the field instead of staring at the scoreboard.\"</b></p><p>When the market price fluctuates up and down, Buffett's calmness is natural-his heart takes the intrinsic value of the enterprise not to be lost as the risk control standard, not the stock price.</p><p>Buffett has a famous saying that has been said badly: \"When others are afraid, I am greedy; when others are greedy, I am afraid.\"</p><p><b>What Buffett is certain of is value, while what others are afraid of and greedy about is stock prices.</b>When the market falls, it is the biggest buying opportunity, because the margin of safety is greater.</p><p><b>Conclusions of Behavioral Finance</b></p><p>In 2011, Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman's \"Thinking, Fast and Slow\" divided the cognitive process into two modes of thinking: intuition and rationality, that is, system 1 and system 2. The decisions of System 1 are mostly mechanical, rapid, and unthoughtful; System 2's decisions are carefully thought out, scrutinized, and focused.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c545d82aaeb89ecb841eabb11dae6c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Buffett has the strictest requirement for himself and the management of the invested companies, which is rationality, especially rationality reflected in the efficient allocation of capital.</p><p>\"Our job is to pick out those good businesses, and every dollar they keep will ultimately create more than a dollar of capital value,\" Buffett said.</p><p>When the invested capital moves repeatedly to bring capital value, this simple and magical formula is completed: long-term capital value = capital investment * (1 + return on capital) ^ time.</p><p>Simple things, because there are few variables that affect their outcomes, are often the least risky things and the most lasting things.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18f57e51abe315a60a559041daee619\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Looking at Berkshire's \"one-thinking\" framework diagram as a whole, investing based on value in the breakdown point has a very strong isomorphism with Berkshire managed by Buffett himself. Buffett screens investment companies according to his own appearance.</p><p>In this way, multiple Berkshire fractals are produced, which constantly resonate at the same frequency, increasing the overall capital value of Berkshire.</p><p>But in the face of this simple and magical formula: long-term capital value = capital investment * (1 + return on capital) ^ time, always ask yourself:</p><p><b>Is it true?</b></p><p><b>Is it always true?</b></p><p><b>Are there any exceptions?</b></p><p><b>5. What is Berkshire Hathaway's axiomatic thinking?</b></p><p>In 1776, Adam Smith wrote a subtle description in The Wealth of Nations: \"The food and drink we need every day come not from the favor of butchers, brewers or bakers, but from their self-interest intentions. Every individual who uses capital and labor neither intends to promote the common good, nor knows to what extent he himself promotes that good. He is guided by an invisible hand to try his best to achieve an end that he is not intended to achieve. By chasing his own interests, he often promotes the interests of society. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9c5b098969269ceca30e73d663687e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The magnificent development of the American market economy and capital market in the past 60 years has created an environment for Buffett's wealth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1559b849f9f8a134db2d12f669a8d67\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>So how does Buffett, who has huge wealth, face it?</b></p><p>Buffett said:</p><p>\"Whenever I told Susan that we were going to get rich, she never showed much excitement, either didn't care or didn't believe it. When we really accumulated huge wealth, we had a tacit understanding on the attitude of disposing of this wealth, that is, giving it back to society.\"</p><p>\"Susan and I never felt that we should leave so much money to our children. Our children are all excellent. However, I want to say that they have taken advantage in their growth experience and educational opportunities; Therefore, it is neither correct nor rational to give them countless money.\"</p><p>\"In fact, in a society that advocates elites, they already have an overwhelming lead. The huge wealth handed down from generation to generation will further aggravate the social equity that we should strive to maintain.\"</p><p>On June 26, 2006, at the new york Public Library, Buffett took out five envelopes, each containing a distribution arrangement of his wealth, just waiting for his signature to take effect. The first three envelopes were simple. He signed \"Dad\" and then gave them to his three children: daughter Susie, eldest son Howard and second son Peter. The fourth letter was sent to the representative of the charitable foundation to which the late wife donated. The total amount of wealth given by these four letters is $6 billion.</p><p>After Buffett signed the fifth letter, he handed it to Melinda, then Bill Gates' wife. In this letter, Buffett donated his Berkshire stock, which totaled $30 billion at the time, to the Bill & Melinda Gates Fund, the largest charity in the world.</p><p>Buffett said, \"They can use money more efficiently, find the person who does things according to your ideas, and does it better. Isn't it more logical to delegate things to them?\"</p><p>This is a typical Buffett, always full of reason.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c7926fdcbed0cb8a02ecdaa6f52efaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, in Protestant Ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism, Max Weber said:</p><p>\"The so-called capitalist spirit refers to the fact that individuals regard efforts to increase their capital and activities for this purpose as a conscientious action, and regard making money itself as an end, a professional responsibility, a virtue and a performance of ability.\"</p><p>\"This economic behavior of modern rational capitalism is completely consistent with the orderly and systematic ascetic way of life of the Protestants. Protestant ascetic ethics provide capitalist entrepreneurs with a psychological<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">Driving force</a>And moral energy. \"</p><p>--Protestant Ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism by Max Weber</p><p>The spirit of capitalism, that is, the spirit of Puritans, regards acquiring wealth as the way to glorify God, and also regards sharing wealth as work for God.</p><p>In this way, Berkshire's \"One Thought\" framework diagram is complete.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d55e7bcb4e3c3d92076adb49997e8cf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Berkshire's value proposition is a capital holding company that pursues long-term capital value.</p><p>The breakdown point is value investment, which improves the efficiency of capital movement.</p><p>Iteration is the effective allocation of assets by capital, and feedback is that assets bring capital appreciation.</p><p><b>The axiomatic thinking that supports this \"one thinking\" model is the political economy and mathematics based on The Wealth of Nations. At the same time, the Puritan spirit has become the inner source of thought when you have wealth.</b></p><p><b>6. Why talk about Berkshire Hathaway and Buffett?</b></p><p>Some people will ask, can Berkshire and Buffett copy it? The answer is NO.</p><p>The America of the 20th century, the corporate values of \"serving the interests of shareholders\", the generous insurance float, the non-hedge fund mechanism, and the interactive resources with the Federal Reserve in times of crisis are all opportunities for non-ordinary asset managers or capitalists.</p><p>Then why talk about Berkshire and Buffett?</p><p>George Johnson said in The Flame in the Heart, \"Between the reality and the illusion, deep down everyone wants to discover a pattern to integrate the disordered world.\"</p><p>Everyone is looking for a pattern in their inner world, but too much information interference and inner disorder make many people unable to find that way back.</p><p>Buffett said: \"<b>Our attitude is to align our personality with the way we want to live.</b>\"When he breaks down value investing, he is breaking down his own life and management style, that is, his life.</p><p>What we want to learn is this spirit, aiming at pursuing commercial value, living frugally, pursuing quality but not wasting, and finally giving wealth back to the society.</p><p>This is true of Buffett, this is true of Berkshire, and this is true of all the companies it invests in.</p><p>Therefore, in 2015, at Buffett's shareholder meeting, I had the opportunity to ask Buffett through a lucky lottery: \"Why is Berkshire, which has been managing for so many years, so determined and passionate?\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d14c232fa07e1a04dedda5596f316fe3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He replied: \"<b>I have the life I want and I love every day. I mean, I tap danced to work every day, drank six cans of Coke a day, and worked with those people I liked. Nothing in the world is more fun than working at Berkshire, and I'm lucky to be here.</b>”</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>One of my favorite books, When the Stars of Man Shine, says: \"<b>The greatest luck in a person's life is to discover his mission in the middle of his life, that is, when he is in the prime of his life.</b>”</p><p>Maybe Buffett discovered his mission in life not in middle age, but as a teenager.</p><p>This kind of energy that people and careers combine to fulfill the call of duty is great, and the happiness of the unity of personnel and affairs is strong. This kind of love for people, things, and society is what we want to learn, and it is also the true confidence in Buffett's heart.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In-depth good article | Why can Buffett be determined for a lifetime?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn-depth good article | Why can Buffett be determined for a lifetime?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1054268451\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb0d9ca821a4b8584db1257562b60a6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格上财富 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-08 20:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>When it comes to \"stock god\" Buffett, everyone will definitely think of his famous saying: \"When others are afraid, I am greedy, and when others are greedy, I am afraid.\"</p><p>Why can he be so different and always be right? Where does his courage and courage for value investing come from? And how did he create a powerful<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway?</p><p>I believe that after reading so many articles about Buffett, this one must be the most unique and impressive one.</p><p>The article not only has an in-depth and systematic analysis of the essential logic, breakdown points and iterative feedback of Buffett and Berkshire, but also a summary of their life beliefs, work motivation, and wealth concepts, which allows us to see a 90-year-old passionate soul.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the author of this article once asked Buffett at the Buffett shareholder meeting in 2015: \"Why is Berkshire, which has been managing for so many years, so determined and passionate?\"</p><p>Guess what Buffett answered?</p><p><b>1. Who is Berkshire Hathaway?</b></p><p>Let's take a look at the brief situation of this US-listed company:</p><p>On April 6, 2022, the company's stock price was US $517,002, the highest stock price in history, with a total market value of US $761.6 billion. In the 2022 Fortune Global 500, Berkshire Hathaway ranked 11th.</p><p>If you invested $10,000 in Berkshire (BRK) stock in 1965, you would have $364 million in 2021. From 1965 to 2021, the annualized compound interest over the past 56 years was 20.1%, far exceeding the 10.5% performance of the Standard 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b8cbbfe64ee41a78836cad25dfc566\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The total assets managed by Berkshire Hathaway are about US $1 trillion, of which 150 billion are liquid assets such as cash or bonds, 350 billion are holdings of stocks, and 500 billion are equity investments, which control the transportation, energy and communications of the United States. and other key infrastructure, as well as many traditional enterprises with very abundant cash flow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a613b2a1296919c4d72908f39d9e1045\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Guess how many people are at the headquarters of a company managing so many assets?</p><p>25 people!</p><p>The boss of Berkshire Hathaway is the famous Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc63f94e9fa2feae9706da13776f20e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Mr. Ba, a Virgo born on August 30, 1930, invested in stocks for the first time at the age of 11, studied under value investing guru Benjamin Graham at the age of 19, and started his own limited partnership investment company at the age of 27.</p><p>According to Forbes ranking data, in 2022, the 92-year-old's personal wealth will be US $99.6 billion, ranking sixth in the world. However, he has donated nearly 90% of his wealth to society.</p><p><b>2. What is Berkshire Hathaway's \"one\"?</b></p><p>What is Berkshire's \"one\" and how is its value proposition different from other investment companies? Why does the public favor Buffett alone among investment gurus such as Peter Lynch, Soros, Fisher, and Dario and respect him as the \"stock god\"?</p><p><b>Buffett dissolves partnership investment firm</b></p><p>After returning to Omaha from Graham's firm, Buffett opened his own investment firm in 1957, starting with an AUM of $105,000. Buffett told his partners that he wanted to beat the Dow by 10 percentage points a year.</p><p>As a result, from 1957 to 1961, the Dow rose by 75% and the partnership rose by 251%. In the 10 years to 1966, the Dow rose by 123% and the partnership rose by 1156%. Buffett greatly exceeded his goal, and the actual performance was annualized. 35% income.</p><p>In 1969, Buffett dissolved the partnership investment enterprise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14a9bd72d41a5981c3a77c98acb972e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What is puzzling is that with such good performance, we should raise funds vigorously. Why should we dissolve the partnership investment enterprise?</p><p>Buffett said, \"I know that I don't want to manage other people's money in an environment where I don't think I can do well, or I have to do well.\"</p><p>1969 was indeed a crazy market, and Buffett was unwilling to change his inner investment rules.</p><p>After dissolving the partnership investment enterprise, he devoted all his energy to Berkshire Hathaway, a textile enterprise that seemed to have \"failed\".</p><p><b>What is the difference between Berkshire and ordinary fund companies?</b></p><p>Berkshire is essentially a capital holding company that manages its own money, while most of the money managed by general fund companies is investors' money.</p><p>This makes Berkshire's view of funds fundamentally different from that of ordinary fund companies-Berkshire regards its own funds as capital.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda28251654185c96454258c522159b3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to \"Fundamentals of Western Economics\", \"Capital is a part of the means of production and the source of assets for enterprises to purchase assets needed for production and business activities. It is investors' investment in enterprises and appears on the right side of the balance sheet. The essence of capital is to make profits.\"</p><p>There is a simple formula, if you don't consider the cost of capital:<b>Long-term capital value = capital investment * (1 + return on capital) ^ time</b></p><p>When Berkshire manages its own capital, compared with other asset management companies, there is no risk of capital redemption, and it can operate sustainably. What the company earns is the value of capital cycle appreciation.</p><p>However, the funds of asset management companies may not be operated and managed for a long time due to market fluctuations, investor redemption, or fund expiration.</p><p><b>For the two models, the capital market will also give different market values.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>It manages nearly $10 trillion in assets with a market capitalization of 112.3 billion, while Berkshire manages $1 trillion in assets with a market capitalization of $761.6 billion.</b></p><p>So,<b>Fund companies belong to asset management companies, and their core is short-term investment value; Berkshire is a capital holding company that pursues long-term capital value.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929513f96cdc93e8f1f6aff901425a4e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a major shareholder, Buffett should be called a capitalist rather than just an investment expert.</p><p><b>3. What did Berkshire Hathaway break through?</b></p><p>What does Berkshire break through in capital management that makes it so different?</p><p>Since it is capital management, let's go back to Marx's Capital and see what the essence of capital is.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819fc82fe96941337cb8a558b6cde057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to Marx's \"Das Kapital\": \"One of the essential characteristics of capital is the mobility of capital. The key to the reason why capital can increase in value and bring surplus value is that it is in endless movement, constantly moving from the circulation field to the production field, and then from the production field to the circulation field,<b>This uninterrupted movement of capital is a necessary prerequisite and condition for capital to gain value. Once it stops moving, capital cannot increase in value. \"</b></p><p>The most important thing for capital appreciation is to improve the efficiency of capital movement. The higher the efficiency of capital movement, the faster the capital appreciation.</p><p>Marx also mentioned: \"The conversion of surplus value into profit is based on the premise that the surplus value rate is converted into profit rate, that is, with the help of profit rate, the surplus value that has been converted into the excess of cost price is further converted into the balance of prepaid total capital exceeding its own value during a certain turnover period. In short,<b>Surplus value is an intrinsic essence or entity, while profit is an external phenomenon or form. \"</b></p><p><b>So according to Marx's theory, is a company with a high net profit margin necessarily a good company?</b></p><p>Buffett once said: \"There are three most important things in investing. The first is to keep the principal, the second is to keep the principal, and the third is to always keep the first two in mind.\"</p><p>Let's take a look at what Buffett's first teacher, Benjamin Graham, said-\"Investment is an act that can be analyzed, promise the safety of principal and provide satisfactory returns. What cannot meet these requirements is speculation.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89dfa71e7e4773ac3c60ee71e5927dc7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>And he mentioned \"<b>Margin of safety</b>\"This important word:\" People are willing to pay any price for stocks, regardless of quantitative analysis at all. Any price marked by market optimism seems to be worth the money. At the top of this madness, the line between investment and speculation is blurred. We should choose stocks with a margin of safety. \"</p><p>According to a simple mathematical equation:<b>Margin of safety = enterprise value-enterprise price</b>It can be seen that the enterprise price can be found in the market, so how to correctly evaluate the enterprise value becomes the top priority.</p><p>At this time, we got a vocabulary that we are very familiar with-value investment, which is an effective evaluation of the true value of an enterprise.</p><p>Buffett has 12 principles for valuing businesses and investing in them.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c568e1c94d873abf3872d07f97244\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The core of the three principles of enterprise is</b>, to make enterprise value judgment simple, and don't vote if you are not familiar with it. He said: \"I won't challenge difficult movements, just like hurdles in sports meetings. There is a 1-foot pole, but I will never choose 7 feet.\"</p><p><b>The core of the three principles of management is</b>, Buffett hopes to find managers like him who can effectively allocate the company's capital and be truly responsible for the interests of shareholders.</p><p><b>The core of the four principles of finance is</b>, how to find indicators and indicator groups that correctly reflect the operating capabilities of enterprises, calculate the real \"shareholder earnings\", and find enterprises with high profit margins.</p><p><b>The core of the two principles of market is</b>, use the conversion of future cash flow to determine the market value of the enterprise, and then according to the margin of safety, whether it can be purchased at a discounted price relative to the market value of the enterprise.</p><p>I went to check several companies that Buffett has held for many years, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">Washington Post</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, Gaike Insurance, Metropolis and other enterprises, even if not all 12 principles are applied, most of them are in compliance.</p><p><b>So, in the second question, \"What did Berkshire break through\", the answer is enterprise value with a margin of safety.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/277c6234e6288f79b3610d9650bb1627\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. What is Berkshire Hathaway's iterative feedback?</b></p><p>As a diversified holding company, Berkshire manages nearly one trillion U.S. dollars of assets. In the unlisted part, most of the companies are wholly owned or consolidated, while in the listed part, the shareholding ratio is mostly relatively large shareholders. Or have board seats.</p><p>Various Berkshire subsidiaries generate significant cash flows, which are provided to the Omaha headquarters. This cash comes from the float of the huge insurance business and the operating profits of wholly-owned non-financial subsidiaries.</p><p>Berkshire reinvests this cash as an element of capital in opportunities that generate more cash.</p><p>Each subsidiary has a talented management team responsible for daily work, so that Buffett can concentrate 100% of his energy and focus on efficient capital allocation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61330d054d1b7f536760a6ec2b4882b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>How does Buffett allocate capital efficiently?</b></p><p>John Whitmore has such a performance formula: P = P-i, where the first P is performance, which means effectiveness, the second P is Potential, which means Potential, and i is interference, which means interference.</p><p>Most human potentials are the same, but the interference values vary greatly. Our efficiency is low, not because of low potential, but because of too much interference.</p><p>So, how does Buffett reduce distractions?</p><p><b>Minimalist Life in Omaha</b></p><p>First of all, Buffett doesn't live in New York in the east or Los Angeles in the west, but in Omaha, Nebraska in the middle. His office is an office building that has been used for 60 years, and only half a floor is rented; The house I live in is a house I bought 60 years ago for $50,000. Reading annual reports and making phone calls quietly in the office every day has become Buffett's lifelong habit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc10f30a7dd991037d5f3e2baa31b325\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Concentrated investments to reduce the number of decisions</b></p><p>Based on Markowitz's modern portfolio theory, Eugene Fama's efficient market hypothesis and Sharp's capital pricing model, most asset managers will regard volatility as the biggest risk in the capital market, so dispersion and non-correlation are the most important ideas to control risks. For example, to dig a pool, choose a cut 1 kilometer wide and make a cut 1 meter deep.</p><p>And Buffett believes that<b>The biggest risk is the loss of the intrinsic value of the enterprise</b>, if the value is gone, the margin of safety is gone, and the stock should be sold. When choosing excellent value enterprises, there must be not many enterprises that can be thoroughly analyzed. Therefore, Buffett chose an incision 1 meter wide and a depth of 1 kilometer when digging a pool.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77627ec8ccc4f3066312ba73226eabd6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In the midst of concentration and decentralization, Buffett chose an incredible concentration of shareholding, reducing the number of decisions and mistakes. Buffett's transaction is to hold a good company all the time in order not to trade, which is a \"difficult but right thing\".</b></p><p><b>Mathematical probability theory as the basis</b></p><p>When it comes to decision-making, Buffett said: \"All we have to do is multiply the probability of profit by the number of possible profits, minus the probability of loss and multiply the number of possible losses.\"</p><p>In 1654,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTH\">Bryce</a>Some correspondence between Pascal and Pierre de Fermat laid the foundation of probability theory. Fermat used algebraic methods and Pascal used geometric methods. The work of Pascal and Fermat marked the beginning of decision theory, which is the process of deciding what to do when you are not sure what is going to happen.</p><p>Bayer analysis provides a mathematical program that adjusts our original expectations to change the corresponding probability according to the newly obtained information. Bayer analysis is used in universities to help students learn to make decisions. In the classroom, it is called decision tree theory. Munger said, \"At Harvard Business School, everything you learned in the first year, together, is actually decision tree theory.</p><p>Shannon creatively adopted the method of probability theory to study problems in communication in The Mathematical Theory of Communication in 1948. On the basis of Shannon's information theory, mathematician Kelly established the optimization formula.</p><p>In 1956, Kelly wrote \"A New Interpretation of Information Rate\", proposing an optimized growth strategy: if you know your probability of success, you know the proportion of how much to allocate. The formula is: 2p-1 = X. If the probability of winning is 55%, then 2 * 55%-1 = 10%. At this time, the proportion of 10% should be configured; If the probability of winning is 75%, then 275%-1 = 50%, at which time the proportion of 50% should be allocated.</p><p>Buffett is often very cautious when applying Kelly's optimization formula. When the result is a 20% allocation ratio, he will appropriately reduce the ratio on this basis, usually 1/2 or 1/3 of the original value.</p><p>So look at Buffett's investment decision-making process from the perspective of probability theory, as shown in the figure below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e64eba4e2c9f130f862467a0165a370f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Shielding Mr. Market's Quote Impact</b></p><p>Looking at a stock like this in the picture below, you may feel that the volatility is too great.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c1ae058eee580faf61d4afc29ce028b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But looking at this stock, you will feel that the earlier you drive, the better.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32802a41a2ffc564de009d457f6f7e27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But these two pictures are actually the same stock. The famous Apple company only observes the stock price at different times and frequencies.</p><p>Buffett said:<b>\"Investment is like playing baseball. If you want to score, you must focus on the field instead of staring at the scoreboard.\"</b></p><p>When the market price fluctuates up and down, Buffett's calmness is natural-his heart takes the intrinsic value of the enterprise not to be lost as the risk control standard, not the stock price.</p><p>Buffett has a famous saying that has been said badly: \"When others are afraid, I am greedy; when others are greedy, I am afraid.\"</p><p><b>What Buffett is certain of is value, while what others are afraid of and greedy about is stock prices.</b>When the market falls, it is the biggest buying opportunity, because the margin of safety is greater.</p><p><b>Conclusions of Behavioral Finance</b></p><p>In 2011, Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman's \"Thinking, Fast and Slow\" divided the cognitive process into two modes of thinking: intuition and rationality, that is, system 1 and system 2. The decisions of System 1 are mostly mechanical, rapid, and unthoughtful; System 2's decisions are carefully thought out, scrutinized, and focused.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c545d82aaeb89ecb841eabb11dae6c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Buffett has the strictest requirement for himself and the management of the invested companies, which is rationality, especially rationality reflected in the efficient allocation of capital.</p><p>\"Our job is to pick out those good businesses, and every dollar they keep will ultimately create more than a dollar of capital value,\" Buffett said.</p><p>When the invested capital moves repeatedly to bring capital value, this simple and magical formula is completed: long-term capital value = capital investment * (1 + return on capital) ^ time.</p><p>Simple things, because there are few variables that affect their outcomes, are often the least risky things and the most lasting things.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18f57e51abe315a60a559041daee619\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Looking at Berkshire's \"one-thinking\" framework diagram as a whole, investing based on value in the breakdown point has a very strong isomorphism with Berkshire managed by Buffett himself. Buffett screens investment companies according to his own appearance.</p><p>In this way, multiple Berkshire fractals are produced, which constantly resonate at the same frequency, increasing the overall capital value of Berkshire.</p><p>But in the face of this simple and magical formula: long-term capital value = capital investment * (1 + return on capital) ^ time, always ask yourself:</p><p><b>Is it true?</b></p><p><b>Is it always true?</b></p><p><b>Are there any exceptions?</b></p><p><b>5. What is Berkshire Hathaway's axiomatic thinking?</b></p><p>In 1776, Adam Smith wrote a subtle description in The Wealth of Nations: \"The food and drink we need every day come not from the favor of butchers, brewers or bakers, but from their self-interest intentions. Every individual who uses capital and labor neither intends to promote the common good, nor knows to what extent he himself promotes that good. He is guided by an invisible hand to try his best to achieve an end that he is not intended to achieve. By chasing his own interests, he often promotes the interests of society. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9c5b098969269ceca30e73d663687e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The magnificent development of the American market economy and capital market in the past 60 years has created an environment for Buffett's wealth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1559b849f9f8a134db2d12f669a8d67\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>So how does Buffett, who has huge wealth, face it?</b></p><p>Buffett said:</p><p>\"Whenever I told Susan that we were going to get rich, she never showed much excitement, either didn't care or didn't believe it. When we really accumulated huge wealth, we had a tacit understanding on the attitude of disposing of this wealth, that is, giving it back to society.\"</p><p>\"Susan and I never felt that we should leave so much money to our children. Our children are all excellent. However, I want to say that they have taken advantage in their growth experience and educational opportunities; Therefore, it is neither correct nor rational to give them countless money.\"</p><p>\"In fact, in a society that advocates elites, they already have an overwhelming lead. The huge wealth handed down from generation to generation will further aggravate the social equity that we should strive to maintain.\"</p><p>On June 26, 2006, at the new york Public Library, Buffett took out five envelopes, each containing a distribution arrangement of his wealth, just waiting for his signature to take effect. The first three envelopes were simple. He signed \"Dad\" and then gave them to his three children: daughter Susie, eldest son Howard and second son Peter. The fourth letter was sent to the representative of the charitable foundation to which the late wife donated. The total amount of wealth given by these four letters is $6 billion.</p><p>After Buffett signed the fifth letter, he handed it to Melinda, then Bill Gates' wife. In this letter, Buffett donated his Berkshire stock, which totaled $30 billion at the time, to the Bill & Melinda Gates Fund, the largest charity in the world.</p><p>Buffett said, \"They can use money more efficiently, find the person who does things according to your ideas, and does it better. Isn't it more logical to delegate things to them?\"</p><p>This is a typical Buffett, always full of reason.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c7926fdcbed0cb8a02ecdaa6f52efaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, in Protestant Ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism, Max Weber said:</p><p>\"The so-called capitalist spirit refers to the fact that individuals regard efforts to increase their capital and activities for this purpose as a conscientious action, and regard making money itself as an end, a professional responsibility, a virtue and a performance of ability.\"</p><p>\"This economic behavior of modern rational capitalism is completely consistent with the orderly and systematic ascetic way of life of the Protestants. Protestant ascetic ethics provide capitalist entrepreneurs with a psychological<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">Driving force</a>And moral energy. \"</p><p>--Protestant Ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism by Max Weber</p><p>The spirit of capitalism, that is, the spirit of Puritans, regards acquiring wealth as the way to glorify God, and also regards sharing wealth as work for God.</p><p>In this way, Berkshire's \"One Thought\" framework diagram is complete.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d55e7bcb4e3c3d92076adb49997e8cf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Berkshire's value proposition is a capital holding company that pursues long-term capital value.</p><p>The breakdown point is value investment, which improves the efficiency of capital movement.</p><p>Iteration is the effective allocation of assets by capital, and feedback is that assets bring capital appreciation.</p><p><b>The axiomatic thinking that supports this \"one thinking\" model is the political economy and mathematics based on The Wealth of Nations. At the same time, the Puritan spirit has become the inner source of thought when you have wealth.</b></p><p><b>6. Why talk about Berkshire Hathaway and Buffett?</b></p><p>Some people will ask, can Berkshire and Buffett copy it? The answer is NO.</p><p>The America of the 20th century, the corporate values of \"serving the interests of shareholders\", the generous insurance float, the non-hedge fund mechanism, and the interactive resources with the Federal Reserve in times of crisis are all opportunities for non-ordinary asset managers or capitalists.</p><p>Then why talk about Berkshire and Buffett?</p><p>George Johnson said in The Flame in the Heart, \"Between the reality and the illusion, deep down everyone wants to discover a pattern to integrate the disordered world.\"</p><p>Everyone is looking for a pattern in their inner world, but too much information interference and inner disorder make many people unable to find that way back.</p><p>Buffett said: \"<b>Our attitude is to align our personality with the way we want to live.</b>\"When he breaks down value investing, he is breaking down his own life and management style, that is, his life.</p><p>What we want to learn is this spirit, aiming at pursuing commercial value, living frugally, pursuing quality but not wasting, and finally giving wealth back to the society.</p><p>This is true of Buffett, this is true of Berkshire, and this is true of all the companies it invests in.</p><p>Therefore, in 2015, at Buffett's shareholder meeting, I had the opportunity to ask Buffett through a lucky lottery: \"Why is Berkshire, which has been managing for so many years, so determined and passionate?\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d14c232fa07e1a04dedda5596f316fe3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He replied: \"<b>I have the life I want and I love every day. I mean, I tap danced to work every day, drank six cans of Coke a day, and worked with those people I liked. Nothing in the world is more fun than working at Berkshire, and I'm lucky to be here.</b>”</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>One of my favorite books, When the Stars of Man Shine, says: \"<b>The greatest luck in a person's life is to discover his mission in the middle of his life, that is, when he is in the prime of his life.</b>”</p><p>Maybe Buffett discovered his mission in life not in middle age, but as a teenager.</p><p>This kind of energy that people and careers combine to fulfill the call of duty is great, and the happiness of the unity of personnel and affairs is strong. This kind of love for people, things, and society is what we want to learn, and it is also the true confidence in Buffett's heart.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c18dea7f7a333a9914ece4ba2cae08f4","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135927495","content_text":"提到“股神”巴菲特，大家一定会想起他那句名言：“在别人恐惧的时候，我贪婪，别人贪婪的时候，我恐惧。”他为什么能如此与众不同，还总是保持正确？他对价值投资的胆识和魄力究竟来自哪里？他又是如何缔造出强大的伯克希尔·哈撒韦？相信，看过那么多关于巴菲特的文章，这一篇一定是最独特，且能让你印象深刻的。文章不仅有对巴菲特和伯克希尔的本质逻辑，击穿点和迭代反馈的相关分析，深度且成体系，还有对其人生信念，工作动力，财富观念的总结，让我们看到了一个90多岁的炽热灵魂。值得一提的是，本文的作者曾在2015年在巴菲特股东大会上，向巴菲特提问：“已经管理了那么多年的伯克希尔，为什么还这么笃定、有激情？”大家猜一猜巴菲特是怎么回答的？1、伯克希尔·哈撒韦是谁？先来看看这家美国上市公司的简要情况：2022年4月6日这家公司股价是517002美元，是历史上股价最高的股票，总市值7616亿美元。在2022年财富世界500强中，伯克希尔·哈撒韦排名第11位。如果1965年投资1万美元购买伯克希尔（BRK）股票，那么在2021年你将拥有3.64亿美元。从1965年到2021年，56年来年化复利20.1%，远超标普500的10.5%的表现。伯克希尔·哈撒韦管理的总资产约1万亿美元，其中1500亿是现金或债券等流动性资产，3500亿是持仓股票，5000亿是股权投资，控制着美国的运输、能源和通讯等关键基础设施，以及很多现金流非常充裕的传统企业。猜猜管理这么多资产的公司总部有多少人？25人！而伯克希尔哈撒韦的老板，就是大名鼎鼎的巴菲特。巴老爷子，1930年8月30日出生的处女座，11岁第一次投资股票，19岁师从价值投资大师本杰明·格雷厄姆，27岁创业开办了自己的有限合伙投资公司。据福布斯排行榜数据，2022年，92岁的他个人财富为996亿美元，居全球第6位。然而，他已将自己近90%的财富捐给了社会。2、伯克希尔·哈撒韦的“一”是什么？伯克希尔的“一”是什么，其价值主张与其它的投资公司有什么不同？为什么在彼得·林奇、索罗斯、费雪、达里欧等投资大师中，大众独宠巴菲特一人，尊称其为“股神”？巴菲特解散合伙投资公司从格雷厄姆的公司回到奥马哈后，巴菲特于1957年开办了自己的投资公司，从10.5万美元的资产管理规模开始。巴菲特告诉他的合伙人，他希望每年战胜道琼斯指数10个百分点。结果是1957-1961年，道指上升75%，合伙企业上升251%，到1966年共10年里，道指上升123%，合伙企业上升1156%，巴菲特大大超出了他的目标，实际成绩是年化35%的收益。而在1969年，巴菲特解散了合伙投资企业。令人不解的是，这么好的业绩，应该大力募资才对，为什么要解散合伙投资企业呢？巴菲特说：“我知道在一个我认为自己不能做得很好，或者我不得不去做好的环境里，我是不想去管理其他人的钱的。”1969年的确是一个疯狂的市场，而巴菲特并不愿意改变他内心中的投资法则。在解散合伙投资企业后，他把全部精力放在了看似投资“失败”的纺织企业伯克希尔·哈撒韦上。伯克希尔与普通的基金公司有什么区别？伯克希尔本质上是一家资本控股公司，管理的是自己的钱，而普通基金公司管理的资金大部分是投资人的钱。这使得伯克希尔对于资金的看法与普通基金公司有本质的不同——伯克希尔把自己的资金，看作是资本。根据《西方经济学基础》，“资本是生产资料的一部分，是企业为购置从事生产经营活动所需的资产的资产来源，它是投资者对企业的投资，出现在资产负债表的右侧。资本的本质是获得利润。”有一个简单的公式，如果不考虑资本的成本的话：长期资本价值=资本投资*（1+资本回报率）^时间伯克希尔在管理自己的资本的时候，相比其它的资产管理公司，没有资金赎回风险，而且可以永续经营，公司赚的是资本循环增值的价值。而资产管理公司的资金，可能会由于市场的波动，投资者赎回，或者基金到期，无法长期经营管理。对于两种模式，资本市场也会给出不同的市值，贝莱德管理近10万亿美元规模的资产，市值为1123亿，而伯克希尔管理1万亿美元的资产，市值为7616亿美元。所以，基金公司属于资产管理公司，核心是短期的投资价值；而伯克希尔是资本控股公司，追求长期资本价值。作为大股东的巴菲特，更应该称他为资本家，而不是仅仅是投资专家。3、伯克希尔·哈撒韦击穿了什么？伯克希尔在资本管理领域击穿了什么，使得它能够如此不同？既然是资本管理，我们回到马克思的《资本论》，看看资本的本质是什么？根据马克思的《资本论》：“资本的本质特征之一是资本的运动性。资本之所以能够增值，能带来剩余价值，关键是它处在无休止的运动中，不断地从流通领域进入到生产领域，再由生产领域进入到流通领域，资本这种不间断的运动是资本取得价值的增值的必要前提和条件，一旦停止运动，资本就不能增值。”让资本增值最重要的事情是提升资本运动效率，资本运动效率越高，资本增值越快。马克思也提到：“剩余价值转化为利润，以剩余价值率转化为利润率为前提，即借助于利润率，才把已转化为成本价格超过额的剩余价值，进一步转化为预付总资本在一定周转期间内超过它自身价值的余额。总之，剩余价值是内在的本质或实体，而利润则是外在的现象或形式。”那么根据马克思的理论，高净利润率的公司一定就是好公司吗？巴菲特曾说过：“投资有三件最重要的事，第一是保住本金，第二是保住本金，第三是时刻牢记前两条。”再来看看巴菲特的第一个老师本杰明·格雷厄姆怎么说——“投资是经过分析，可以承诺本金安全，并提供满意回报的行为。不能满足这些要求的就是投机。”并且他提到了“安全边际”这个重要的词：“人们愿意为股票付出任何价格，根本不考虑进行数量分析，市场乐观标出的任何价格好像都是物有所值的。在这疯狂之巅，投资与投机的界限模糊了。要以安全边际的方法去挑选股票。”再根据一个简单的数学等式：安全边际=企业价值-企业价格，可知企业价格可以在市场上找到，那么如何正确地评估企业价值就成为重中之重。这时得到了一个我们非常熟悉的词汇——价值投资，是对企业的真实价值进行有效评估。巴菲特对企业进行估值并进行投资有12条原则。企业三原则的核心是，让企业价值判断变得简单，不熟不投，他说：“我不会挑战高难度的动作，就像运动会跨栏，有1英尺的杆，我绝不会选择7英尺。”管理三原则的核心是，巴菲特希望能够找到和他一样的管理者，能够有效配置公司资本，真正为股东的利益负责。财务四原则的核心是，如何找到正确反映企业运营能力的指标和指标组，计算真正的“股东盈余”，而且找到高利润率的企业。市场二原则的核心是，用未来现金流的折算，确定企业的市场价值，再根据安全边际，相对于企业的市场价值，能否以折扣价进行购买。我去查询了几家巴菲特持有多年的企业，如华盛顿邮报、可口可乐、盖可保险、大都会等企业，即便不是12条原则全部应用，但大部分是符合的。所以，在第二个问题“伯克希尔击穿了什么”中，答案是有安全边际的企业价值。4、伯克希尔·哈撒韦的迭代反馈是什么？作为多元控股型企业，伯克希尔管理近万亿美元的资产，其中非上市部分，绝大部分企业为全资拥有或可合并报表，而上市部分，持股比例也多为相对大股东或有董事会席位。伯克希尔的各个子公司产生大量现金流，提供给奥马哈总部。这些现金来源于巨大保险业务的浮存金，及全资拥有的非金融子公司的运营盈利。伯克希尔将这些现金作为资本要素进行再投资，投资于那些能产生更多现金的机会。每个子公司都有富有才华的管理团队负责日常工作，这样巴菲特可以集中100%的精力，专注于资本高效配置。巴菲特如何做好资本高效配置？John Whitmore有这样一个效能公式：p=P-i，这里第一个p是performance，效能的意思，第二个P是Potential，潜力的意思，i是interference，干扰的意思。人的潜能大多数是一样的，但干扰值区别很大。我们的效能低，不是因为潜能低，而是因为干扰太大了。那么，巴菲特是如何降低干扰的呢？奥马哈的极简生活首先巴菲特既不住在东部的纽约，也不住在西部的洛杉矶，而是中部内布拉斯加州的奥马哈。他的办公室是用了60年的办公楼，只租了半层；住的房子是60年前用5万美元买的房子。每天安静地在办公室里看年报打电话，成了巴菲特一生的习惯。减少决策次数的集中性投资以马柯维茨现代资产组合理论、尤金·法玛的有效市场假说及夏普的资本定价模型为基础，大多数资产管理人会把波动性看作资本市场的最大风险，所以分散、非相关性是控制风险最重要的思路。举个例子，挖水池是选择1千米宽的切口，打1米深。而巴菲特认为最大的风险是企业内在价值的丧失，如果价值没有了，安全边际就没有了，股票就应该卖出。选择优秀的价值企业，能透彻分析的企业个数一定不多。所以，巴菲特挖水池是选择1米宽的切口 ，打1千米深。巴菲特在集中与分散中，选择了不可思议的集中性持股，减少决策的次数，减少犯错的次数。巴菲特的交易是为了不交易，找到好企业而一直持有，这是一件“难而正确的事情”。数学概率论作为基础谈及决策，巴菲特说：“我们所要做的全部就是，将盈利概率乘上可能盈利的数量，减去亏损的概率乘上可能亏损的数量。”1654年，布莱斯·帕斯卡和皮埃尔·德·费马相互之间的一些信件往来奠定了概率论的基础，费马用的是代数方法，帕斯卡用的是几何方法。帕斯卡和费马的工作标志着决策理论的开始，决策理论就是当你不确定将要发生什么时，决定做什么的过程。而拜尔分析法提供了一个数学程序，根据新获得的信息，调整我们原有的预期，以改变相应的机率。大学里使用拜尔分析法帮助学生学习决策，在课堂上，被称为决策树理论。芒格说：“在哈佛商学院，第一年所学的全部，综合在一起实际上就是决策树理论。香农在1948年《通信的数学理论》中创造性地采用概率论的方法来研究通信中的问题。在香农信息理论的基础上，数学家凯利建立了优化公式。1956年，凯利写了《信息速率的新解读》，提出优化成长策略：如果你知道你成功的概率，你就知道配置多少的比例。公式是：2p-1=X，如果赢的概率是55%，那么2*55%-1=10%，此时应配置10%的比例；如果赢的概率是75%，那么275%-1=50%，此时应配置50%的比例。而巴菲特在应用凯利优化公式时，往往非常谨慎，当结果是20%配置比例的时候，他会在此基础上适当降低比例，通常是原数值的1/2或1/3。所以从概率论来看巴菲特的投资决策流程，如下图：屏蔽市场先生的报价影响看下图这样一个股票，可能你会觉得波动性太大了。但看这支股票，你会觉得越早上车越好。但这两张图其实是同一支股票，大名鼎鼎的苹果公司，仅是观察股价的时间频度不一样。巴菲特说：“投资就像打棒球一样，想要得分大家必须把注意力集中在场上，而不是紧盯着计分板。”当市场价格上下波动的时候，巴菲特所显现出来的淡定是自然的——他的内心是以企业内在价值不丧失作为风险控制标准的，而不是股价。巴菲特有句被说烂了的名言：“在别人恐惧的时候，我贪婪，别人贪婪的时候，我恐惧。”巴菲特笃定的是价值，而别人恐惧和贪婪的是股价。市场下跌的时候，反而是最大的买入机会，因为安全边际更大了。行为金融学的结论2011年，诺贝尔奖获得者丹尼尔·卡尼曼的《思考，快与慢》，将认知过程分为两个思维模式：直觉和理性，也就是系统1与系统2。系统1的决策多是机械的、快速的、未经大脑深思熟虑的；系统2的决策是经过认真思考的、经过推敲的、要求专注的。巴菲特无论是对自己，还是被投企业的管理层，要求最严格的，就是理性，特别是体现在资本高效配置方面的理性。巴菲特说：“我们的工作就是挑选出那些优秀的企业，它们每保留的一美元最终都会创造出超过一美元的资本价值。”当投资的资本反复运动，带来资本价值的时候，就完成了这个简单而神奇的公式：长期资本价值=资本投资*（1+资本回报率）^时间。简单的事情，因影响其结果的变量少，往往是风险最小的事情，也是最持久的事情。整体看伯克希尔的”一思维“框架图，击穿点中的依据价值而进行投资，与巴菲特自己管理的伯克希尔有非常强的同构性。巴菲特按照自己的样子，筛选投资企业。这样就产生了多个伯克希尔分形，不断同频共振，提升了伯克希尔的整体资本价值。但面对这个简单而神奇的公式：长期资本价值=资本投资*（1+资本回报率）^时间，永远要问自己：是真的吗？永远是真的吗？有没有例外？5、伯克希尔·哈撒韦的公理化思维是什么？1776年，亚当·斯密在《国富论》中有一段精妙的描述：“我们每天所需的食物和饮料，不是出自屠户、酿酒商或面包师的恩惠，而是出于他们自利的打算。每个使用资本和劳动的个人，既不打算促进公共利益，也不知道他自己是在什么程度上促进那种利益。他受一只看不见的手的指导，去尽力达到一个并非他本意想要达到的目的。通过追逐自己的利益，他经常促进了社会的利益。”60年美国市场经济和资本市场波澜壮阔的发展，造就了巴菲特财富的大环境。那么拥有巨额财富的巴菲特，是如何面对的呢？巴菲特说：“无论何时，当我跟苏珊说我们会发财时，她从未表现得多么兴奋，要么毫不在意，要么是不予相信。当我们真的积累了巨额财富，在处置这笔财富的态度上我们相当默契，那就是将它们回馈给社会。”“我和苏珊从未觉得我们应该把这么多钱留给子女，我们的孩子都很出色。然而我要申明的一点是，在成长经历以及得到的教育机会，他们已经占尽了优势；因此，再赋予他们无数金钱既不正确，也不理智。”“实际上，在崇尚精英的社会里，他们已经拥有了压倒性的领先优势。世代相承的巨额财富，将会进一步加剧我们本应努力维护的社会公平。”2006年6月26日的纽约公共图书馆，巴菲特拿出五个信封，每一个信封里都装着一份他财富的分配安排，只等着他的签名即可生效。前三个信封很简单，他签名“爸爸”，然后分别给了三个子女：女儿苏茜、长子霍华德、次子彼得。第四封信交给已故妻子所捐的慈善基金会的代表。这四封信给出的财富总计金额为60亿美元。巴菲特签好第五封信后，交给了当时比尔·盖茨的妻子梅琳达。这封信中，巴菲特将他拥有的伯克希尔的股票，当时共计300亿美元的财富捐给了世界上最大的慈善机构，比尔&梅琳达·盖茨基金。巴菲特说：“他们可以更有效率地使用金钱，找到那个按照你的想法做事，而且做得更好的人，将事情委托给他们难道不更符合逻辑吗？”这就是典型的巴菲特，总是充满理性。所以，在《新教伦理与资本主义精神》中，马克思·韦伯说：“所谓的资本主义精神，是指个人把努力增加自己的资本并以此为目的活动视为一种尽责尽职的行动，把赚钱本身当作一种目的、一种职业责任、一种美德和能力的表现。”“这种现代理性资本主义的经济行为，与新教徒那种井井有条、系统安排的人世禁欲主义生活方式是完全相一致的。新教禁欲主义伦理为资本主义企业家提供了一种心理驱动力和道德能量。”--《新教伦理与资本主义精神》作者：马克思·韦伯资本主义精神，也就是清教徒精神，把获得财富当作是荣耀上帝的道路，也把分享财富当作是替上帝做的工作。这样，伯克希尔的“一思维”框架图就完整了。伯克希尔的价值主张是一家资本控股公司，追求长期资本价值。击穿点是价值投资，提高资本运动效率。迭代是资本有效配置资产，反馈是资产带来资本增值。支撑这个“一思维”模型的公理化思维是《国富论》为基石的政治经济学和数学，同时清教徒精神成为了拥有财富时内心笃定的思想来源。6、为什么要讲伯克希尔·哈撒韦和巴菲特？有人会问，伯克希尔和巴菲特可以复制吗？答案是NO。20世纪的美国、“为股东利益服务”的企业价值观、丰厚的保险浮存金、非对冲基金机制、危机时刻与美联储的互动资源，都是非一般资产管理人或资本家所拥有的机遇。那为什么要讲伯克希尔和巴菲特？乔治·约翰逊在《心中的火焰》中说，“在现实和虚幻之间，每个人的内心深处都想发现一种模式，以整合无序的世界。”每个人都在寻找自己内心世界中的一种模式，但太多的信息干扰和内心中的紊乱让很多人找不到那条归路。巴菲特说：“我们的态度就是，让我们的个性与我们希望的生活方式相一致。”他在击穿价值投资的时候，就在击穿他自己的生活和管理方式，也就是他的生命。我们要学习的就是这种精神，以追求商业价值为目标，自己生活节俭，追求品质但不浪费，最终将财富回馈于社会。巴菲特如此，伯克希尔如此，所有投资的企业也是如此。所以，2015年我在巴菲特股东大会上，通过幸运抽签，有机会向巴菲特提问：“已经管理了那么多年的伯克希尔，为什么还这么笃定、有激情？”他回答：“我拥有我想要的生活，我热爱每一天。我的意思是，我每天都跳着踢踏舞去上班，每天喝六罐可乐，与那些我喜欢的人一起工作。这世界上没有什么比得上我在伯克希尔工作更有乐趣，很幸运我在这里。”结语我最喜欢的一本书《人类群星闪耀时》说：“一个人生命中的最大幸运，莫过于在他的人生中途，即在他年富力强时发现了自己的人生使命。”可能巴菲特不是在中年，而是在少年时就已经发现了自己的人生使命。这种人和事业合在一起完成使命召唤的能量之大，人事合一的幸福感之强，这种对人、对事、对社会之爱，才是我们要学习的，也是巴菲特内心中真正的笃定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9018426639,"gmtCreate":1649081172490,"gmtModify":1676534446881,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018426639","repostId":"1165926470","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165926470","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649079344,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165926470?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-04 21:35","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Jumia rises more than 13%, announces partnership with UPS","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165926470","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月4日，非洲电商平台Jumia涨超13%，今天宣布与联合包裹建立合作伙伴关系。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>April 4, African e-commerce platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">Jumia</a>Rose more than 13%, announced today that it<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPS\">United Parcel</a>Build partnerships.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1060b52b4193b9f087bee6f292bcd880\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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21:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>April 4, African e-commerce platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">Jumia</a>Rose more than 13%, announced today that it<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPS\">United Parcel</a>Build partnerships.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1060b52b4193b9f087bee6f292bcd880\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"JMIA":"Jumia Technologies AG","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4131":"航空货运与物流","UPS":"联合包裹","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165926470","content_text":"4月4日，非洲电商平台Jumia涨超13%，今天宣布与联合包裹建立合作伙伴关系。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JMIA":0.9,"UPS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887508863,"gmtCreate":1632057950752,"gmtModify":1676530693755,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887508863","repostId":"2168037685","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2168037685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632045566,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2168037685?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-19 17:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. officials believe Tesla's self-driving terminology is \"misleading and irresponsible\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168037685","media":"汇通网","summary":"特斯拉的行为显然误导了许多人误用和滥用该项技术。","content":"<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>As a major upgrade to Full Self-Driving (FSD) software is being prepared, the head of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said the move may be premature.</p><p>NTSB Chairman Jennifer Homendy said,<b>Tesla's use of the term'fully autonomous driving 'is'misleading and irresponsible'</b>, because people pay more attention to marketing than warnings in car manuals or company websites. She added,<b>Tesla's behavior obviously misled many people to misuse and abuse the technology, and Tesla should not advance this upgrade until the security flaw is resolved.</b></p><p>Musk said last week that FSD Beta v10.0. 1 will be available on a large scale starting September 24.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3124db31c9b33e3f3404d3603b1baf2b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"HTW","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. officials believe Tesla's self-driving terminology is \"misleading and irresponsible\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. officials believe Tesla's self-driving terminology is \"misleading and irresponsible\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">汇通网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-19 17:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>As a major upgrade to Full Self-Driving (FSD) software is being prepared, the head of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said the move may be premature.</p><p>NTSB Chairman Jennifer Homendy said,<b>Tesla's use of the term'fully autonomous driving 'is'misleading and irresponsible'</b>, because people pay more attention to marketing than warnings in car manuals or company websites. She added,<b>Tesla's behavior obviously misled many people to misuse and abuse the technology, and Tesla should not advance this upgrade until the security flaw is resolved.</b></p><p>Musk said last week that FSD Beta v10.0. 1 will be available on a large scale starting September 24.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3124db31c9b33e3f3404d3603b1baf2b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.fx678.com/C/20210919/202109191759262286.html\">汇通网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4edcd70007a48ee832e76f61e110854","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fx678.com/C/20210919/202109191759262286.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2168037685","content_text":"在特斯拉正准备对全自动驾驶（FSD）软件进行重大升级之际， 美国国家运输安全委员会（NTSB）负责人表示此举可能为时过早。\nNTSB主席Jennifer Homendy称，特斯拉使用“全自动驾驶”一词是“误导和不负责任的”，因人们更关注营销，而不是汽车使用手册或公司网站上的警告。她补充说，特斯拉的行为显然误导了许多人误用和滥用该项技术，在解决该安全缺陷之前，特斯拉不应该推进本次升级。\n马斯克上周曾表示，将于9月24日开始大面积提供FSD Beta v10.0.1。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888120105,"gmtCreate":1631458836307,"gmtModify":1676530551172,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888120105","repostId":"1107402961","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107402961","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631432462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107402961?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-12 15:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"TAL lost \"TAL\" in the future?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107402961","media":"子弹财经","summary":"双减之下，于好未来而言，转型只是一个开始，未来的挑战注定异常艰巨。\n\n教育巨头好未来又官宣了一个重磅消息。\n8月27日，好未来发公告称，公司已与持有者达成协议，回购现有的2026年到期的0.5%可转换","content":"<p><div>Under the double reduction, for TAL, the transformation is just the beginning, and the challenges in the future are destined to be extremely arduous. The education giant TAL officially announced another big news. On August 27, TAL announced that the company had reached an agreement with holders to repurchase the existing 0.5% convertible bonds due in 2026. The total purchase price of this repurchase consists of the aggregate principal amount of the convertible bonds of US $2.3 billion (equivalent to approximately RMB 15 billion), and accrued and unpaid interest calculated based on the annual interest rate of 0.5%. The repurchase will be completed through one or more deliveries by the end of December 2021. According to...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5GlW-Lfk5yzXvvXrdPrIQA\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"zdcj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TAL lost \"TAL\" in the future?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTAL lost \"TAL\" in the future?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">子弹财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 15:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Under the double reduction, for TAL, the transformation is just the beginning, and the challenges in the future are destined to be extremely arduous. The education giant TAL officially announced another big news. On August 27, TAL announced that the company had reached an agreement with holders to repurchase the existing 0.5% convertible bonds due in 2026. The total purchase price of this repurchase consists of the aggregate principal amount of the convertible bonds of US $2.3 billion (equivalent to approximately RMB 15 billion), and accrued and unpaid interest calculated based on the annual interest rate of 0.5%. The repurchase will be completed through one or more deliveries by the end of December 2021. According to...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5GlW-Lfk5yzXvvXrdPrIQA\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5GlW-Lfk5yzXvvXrdPrIQA\">子弹财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bf3ae97e487b25c199236ac21d2cdfc","relate_stocks":{"TAL":"好未来"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5GlW-Lfk5yzXvvXrdPrIQA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107402961","content_text":"双减之下，于好未来而言，转型只是一个开始，未来的挑战注定异常艰巨。\n\n教育巨头好未来又官宣了一个重磅消息。\n8月27日，好未来发公告称，公司已与持有者达成协议，回购现有的2026年到期的0.5%可转换债券。此次回购的总购买价格由可转债的本金总额23亿美元（折合人民币约150亿元），以及根据0.5%年利率计算的应计和未付利息两部分组成。此次回购将在2021年12月底前通过一次或多次交割完成。\n据「子弹财经」了解，好未来拟回购的可转债于去年12月由银湖资本领投，若可转债到期并成功转换为股份，将占好未来已发行股份的4.3%。\n消息一出，迅速引发行业热议。有人认为，好未来此举展现了自身的财务实力；也有人认为，“提前回购可转债”恰恰表明了投资人对长期持有好未来股票的信心不足。\n某种程度上来说，当前的好未来要比“双减”新政出台前的任何时候都需要钱。毕竟，其痛失K12教培这一支柱型业务后，难在短期内找到“替补”。\n更重要的是，好未来正处业务转型之际，众多家长和成人用户对其新产品并不买账，加之转型路上潜在的种种挑战，公司显然需要预留出更多“保命钱”。\n而此番提前回购可转债无疑会给好未来的业务转型蒙上一层阴影。\n1、全速转型素质教育\n好未来的前身是学而思，公司在2003年开创了课外辅导品牌，很早便开始探索在线教育模式。好未来一度是在线教育领域当之无愧的领头企业，但今年以来，和其他教育公司一样，它也没逃过这场监管风暴。\n尤其是在“双减”政策后，一个更为直观的感受是，好未来在积极转型求生，且动作不可谓不频繁。\n为争夺学生课外时间，好未来入局课后托管市场。7月13日，好未来上线托管品牌“彼芯”，“彼芯”以开设线下课后成长中心为主要业务模式，面向小学生提供放学接送、餐食、课内作业、自主提升等服务，服务时间为周一到周五的15:30-20:00，旨在培养学生的学习习惯体系。\n除了瞄准课后托管，好未来也重押素质教育。据「子弹财经」了解，该公司先是将旗下品牌直接转为素质教育品牌并上线新产品。\n6月24日，好未来旗下少儿英语品牌“励步英语”正式更名为“励步”，并推出线下学习空间——励步儿童成长中心，以及系列素质教育新产品，包括英文戏剧、口才、美育、书法、益智、棋道等。\n8月11日，励步正式发布五类素质教育产品，分别为戏剧、美育、益智、口才、读物产品，并宣布线下学习空间励步儿童成长中心将正式落成。\n仅时隔两周，励步又在北京举办“素质产品开放日”，戏剧、美育、益智、口才等素质教育全新产品体系首次线下集体亮相。\n好未来再以旗下品牌名义推出新素质教育品牌。\n9月1日，好未来旗下学而思培优宣布正式推出素质教育品牌——学而思素养中心，据悉，学而思素养中心的素养产品内容涵盖科学、编程、益智、故事、口才、传统文化、美育、围棋等模块。\n\n图 /摄图网，基于VRF协议\n当然，好未来还在发力成人教育。\n7月7日，好未来正式对外披露成人教育品牌“轻舟”。目前，轻舟旗下拥有轻舟考研帮、轻舟考满分和轻舟留学三个子品牌，覆盖考研、语培、留学等三个领域。\n从产品更新到推出新品牌，对于素质教育这艘船，好未来已经准备好全速起航。\n关于转型素质教育的相关计划及未来可能面临的挑战，好未来方面暂未回复。\n2、不买账的用户和资本\n然而，对于上述好未来一次次的转型动作，家长和成人用户似乎并不十分买账。\n“很多好未来K12学员家长对它开展课后托管服务并不买单。”北京小学生家长顾婷（化名）向「子弹财经」表示，以前，很多家长周中给孩子报名托管班是因为自己下班接孩子的时间与孩子放学时间无法很好衔接。现在，学校提供了课后托管服务，部分家长下班后刚好能接送孩子。另外，很多家里有老人接送孩子的，也根本不用报托管班。\n至于好未来转战素质教育领域，仅有部分家长愿意继续支持并购买所需素养类产品。\n“目前我所接触的好未来家长中，只有小部分家长基于对他家品牌和质量的信任，愿意继续接受他家推出的素质教育课程。”上海小学生家长叶松（化名）对「子弹财经」说道。\n而大部分好未来K12学员家长可能更倾向于“逃离”。叶松表示，好未来在美术、编程、口才等素质教育领域尚未形成较强的品牌知名度和用户认可度。所以，很多家长在选报某一素质教育课程时，会更倾向于那些对应领域的全国或区域性知名素质教育品牌。\n“我给我孩子报名美术培训班，选择的是一家专业美术画室，老师都是长年教孩子画画的。比那些K12转型过来的机构要专业很多倍。”顾婷坦言，好未来的学科培训确实做得不错，但素质教育“差点意思”。“他家（好未来）转型做素质教育，很多家长不买单是正常的。”\n她还提到，不同于K12教育，素质教育需要十分专业且有经验的师资。“否则，会浪费孩子的宝贵时间。”\n不仅如此，好未来加码成人教育这一举动，也很难激起多数成人用户报名其课程的兴趣。毕竟，考研、语培、留学等各自领域格局已基本形成，好未来尚未在这些领域建立起品牌影响力和市场竞争优势。\n\n图 /摄图网，基于VRF协议\n事实上，对于好未来转型动作不买账的不止家长和成人用户，还有资本市场。\n「子弹财经」注意到，7月26日（“双减”政策落地后的第一个交易日），好未来市值一直徘徊在28亿美元至42亿美元之间。截至美东时间9月10日收盘，好未来股价报4.96美元/股，较上一个交易日大跌8.15%，较今年2月初的高位90.96美元跌去94.55%，市值仅剩31.99亿美元，折合206亿元人民币。很明显，资本市场仍弥漫着对好未来业务层面的担忧情绪。\n此次好未来回购可转债也正是当资本投下不信任票后稳定股价的自救之举。\n一般而言，上市企业提前赎回可转债大多是为了加速可转债持有人转股，而转股后就相当于企业增发了新股，既实现了股权融资，也变相稀释了股权，提高了公司市盈率。\n但好未来能否在短期内挽回资本信心并消除其担忧，仍然是个未知数。\n3、转型之战不好打\n抛开家长、成人用户和资本对“新”好未来的接纳程度，好未来业务转型也并非想象中那般简单。\n“课后托管服务本身就不怎么赚钱。”长期从事教培行业的李良（化名）向「子弹财经」表示，课后托管主要是帮家长完成孩子放学接送工作，并为孩子提供餐食、课内作业等服务。“它属于基础性服务，不需要太高技术含量。”所以，机构一般很难向家长收取高额服务费。\n而今，学生的校外时间还被进一步挤压。\n据「子弹财经」了解，在7月13日召开的新闻通气会上，教育部基础教育司司长吕玉刚指出，课后服务将在今年秋季开学后实现义务教育学校全覆盖，并努力实现有需要的学生全覆盖。\n此外，他还提到，课后服务推行“5+2”模式，即学校每周5天都要开展课后服务，每天至少开展2小时，结束时间要与当地正常下班时间相衔接。\n显然，如何抢夺学生有限校外时间则成为好未来开展托管服务亟待解决的一道难题。\n除了课后托管业务，好未来的素质教育业务同样在遭遇难关。\n首先，好未来们该以怎样的品类组合攻占各地市场？据李良介绍，不同地方不同用户的需求也不尽相同，机构需要思考的是用哪些素质教育品类能够满足他们的诉求。“每个城市开设的品类都相同，还是每个城市开设的品类都不一样呢？”他说。\n其次，如何在多品类的投入成本和用户群体对不同品类的需求之间寻得平衡，也成为好未来们待逾越的又一座大山。\n因为家长在给孩子购买素质教育课程时有诸多选择，他一般会优先考虑孩子感兴趣或适合的品类，比如画画、围棋等。“这样的话，每个家长选择的类目就不太一样。”李良说。\n李良分析称，如果机构在一个地方开设的品类不够充分，供家长可选择的少，这意味着其将错失一部分目标用户。而如果机构在一个地方开设的品类过多，难免会导致自身成本的大幅提升。\n\n图 /摄图网，基于VRF协议\n此外，横亘在好未来们面前的另一个挑战是，如何让K12学员家长在素质教育品类上花更多钱。\n毕竟，素质教育需求不够刚性，机构难以让用户在素质教育课程购买上花更多的钱。“如果素养课客单价定得高一些，一二线城市家长或许愿意买单，但三四线及以下城市家长很可能就承受不住。”李良坦陈道。\n资深教育投资人徐华也认为好未来转战素质教育领域并非易事。他向「子弹财经」表示，素质教育与学科教育有着本质的区别。\n虽说企业在服务用户上几乎重合，以及在拉新和转化方式方面有一定的相似之处。但在业务线规划、教材编写、课程开发等方面，二者重叠之处并不多。“所以，对好未来这类学科教育机构来说，转型素质教育更多意味着要重新开始。”徐华说。\n由于素质教育品类繁多，不妨就拿少儿编程来举例。\n根据「创业最前线」此前在《独家|好未来领投1.2亿元的傲梦爆雷，少儿编程还有好未来吗?》一文中所述，时下少儿编程行业正面临六大挑战：如何提升家长认知度和接受度、抢占学生更多校外时间、留住用户、补足师资短板、向资本市场讲好新故事以及合规运营问题。\n以家长认知度和接受度提升为例，如大家所知，少儿编程市场渗透率极低，尚不足1%，加之少儿编程机构的受众也都是学科类培训机构的用户群体，在校外时间相对有限的情况下，家长们势必会为自己的孩子优先选择学科培训。\n一个基本事实是，“双减”政策落地之前，“编程被纳入学科范畴”被外界普遍认为是少儿编程玩家们最大的机会。但从目前来看，编程转为学科又是最大的风险。一时间，少儿编程行业陷入尴尬境地。\n而其他的素质教育品类也几乎和编程一样面临着相同的难题。\n4、尴尬的成人教育\n比起入局课后托管和重押素质教育的难，好未来发力成人教育也并不轻松。\n仅拿续费率来说，成人教育续费率远低于K12教育。“像参加考研等考试类培训，无论最终是否通过考试，学生通常都不会再续费。超低的续费率，就意味着机构需要不断地获取新用户。”徐华称。\n此外，好未来尽管早已布局成人教育领域，但从其过往财报来看，成人教育业务对公司营收的贡献占比一直不足10%。“他家一直想做好面向18岁以上人群的教育业务，但终究还是没能啃下这块硬骨头。如今内忧外患之下，想在成人教育领域有所突破显然更难。”李良直言。\n需要特别指出的是，企业无论往哪个方向转型，都离不开资金的支持。\n而对于好未来来说，几乎完全失去K12学科培训这一支柱性业务，意味着其造血能力将大幅减弱，在收入可能受到影响的情况下，公司每天的支出也是一笔不小的数目。\n如今，好未来还要预留出至少23亿美元，用于偿还可转换债券债务。如此一来，好未来的现金流只会更加吃紧。\n\n图 /摄图网，基于VRF协议\n当然，面对潜在的挑战，好未来也并非毫无应对之道。\n在徐华看来，一方面，好未来要继续就战略转型等事宜与股东们保持友好沟通，避免因后者挤兑甚至退股造成公司大量内耗。\n另一方面，好未来要优先满足最大规模用户年龄段相匹配的其他需求，也就是托管或素质教育。先聚焦业务，在打开一个渠道之后再复刻它，这样不仅能让管理团队和业务团队快速犯错并改正，也有利于团队成员伙伴进一步的压缩和降低劳务成本支出。\n“不能因为公司账上有些钱，就各种尝试，导致公司的资源、资金以及人力等过于分散，一旦尝试后发现没有多大起色，对公司来说无疑是得不偿失。”徐华说。\n5、结语\n相比绝大多数K12教培机构，好未来拥有不可比拟的资金实力、优厚资源和品牌优势。表面而言，好未来转型难度不会太大。\n但问题是，家长、成人用户以及资本对其新产品业务的“不买账”，外加提前回购可转债需预留资金，预示着好未来的被迫转型之路将充满荆棘和不确定性。\n双减之下，于好未来而言，转型只是一个开始，未来的挑战注定异常艰巨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067146553,"gmtCreate":1652431109072,"gmtModify":1676535099436,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067146553","repostId":"1136768096","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069482984,"gmtCreate":1651334491894,"gmtModify":1676534891578,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069482984","repostId":"1145531422","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145531422","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651314140,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145531422?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-30 18:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Big Liquidation of the Century\" Suspense: Did Bill Hwang manipulate the stock price?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145531422","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"检察官可能仍难以证明被告操纵股价。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Experts say it may be difficult for U.S. authorities to prove that the hero of this \"big explosion of the century\" manipulated the market and pushed up stock prices.</p><p>Before Bill Hwang and Archegos' former chief financial officer Patrick Halligan were arrested by federal police on Wednesday, U.S. authorities had spent months gathering evidence to support their allegations. The charges are that they plotted to manipulate the stock prices of listed companies in order to increase earnings, which caused a huge shock in the American securities market.</p><p>The Archgos liquidation caused billions of dollars in losses to Wall Street's top investment banks and wiped out more than $100 billion from the valuations of nearly a dozen companies.<b>But legal experts say prosecutors may still struggle to prove that the defendants manipulated the stock price.</b>This requires persuading the jury to prove that Bill Hwang's artificially raised stock prices has imbalanced the normal supply and demand relationship in the securities market.</p><p>Bill Hwang's lawyer insisted that his client was \"completely innocent of any wrongdoing\" and that the allegations were exaggerated. He is innocent and will be proven innocent.</p><p>Can manipulating stock prices constitute a criminal case?</p><p>The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said in the indictment:</p><p>The pair and others at the firm made \"materially false and misleading statements\" to the big banks that arranged derivatives trades. None of these transactions are based on principled acts of true value to a particular issuer, but are intended to artificially inflate the stock price. Experts said,<b>These share purchases alone do not necessarily constitute illegal activity</b>, which may make it difficult to prove Bill Hwang's allegations of market manipulation.</p><p>A senior criminal lawyer asked:</p><p><b>If its purpose is only to drive the stock price, can this constitute a criminal case?</b>This is a very delicate and complex issue, and this case is an excellent case for us to think about it. Market manipulation is one of 11 criminal charges filed against Bill Hwang by U.S. prosecutors. He was also charged with racketeering and fraud. His deputy, former chief financial officer Patrick Halligan, was also arrested and charged, but not involving market manipulation. Both pleaded not guilty.</p><p>Allegations of market manipulation typically arise in civil cases filed by agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Compared with criminal proceedings, the burden of proof in civil cases is lighter.<b>But even then, attorneys struggled to make those charges valid.</b></p><p>A case 30 years ago involving John Mulheren, a popular Wall Street trader, is regarded as a rare criminal case of stock manipulation. His charge was ultimately overturned on the grounds that the jury's decision was based on speculation and there was insufficient evidence.</p><p>According to the Financial Times, James Cox, professor of corporate and securities law at Duke University, said the Mulheren case<b>\"Greatly illustrates the problems existing in the manipulation charge case\"</b>。</p><p>The SEC also accused Bill Hwang of ignoring his research analysts by ordering Archegos to trade before the market opens or in the last 30 minutes of the trading day to maximize market impact.</p><p>The case of manipulation targeting listed corporate giants is even more confusing</p><p>Cox Indicates,<b>For U.S. authorities, this is a \"gut check moment\", and this case will not be assured, because there are \"great challenges\" in refining a large amount of evidence and transaction data into a form understandable to jurors.</b></p><p>He added that as Archegos' capital ballooned from $1.5 billion in March 2020 to $35 billion a year later,<b>The alleged manipulation involves corporate giants listed on the largest U.S. exchanges, rather than other more typical small companies, so the case will be more complicated.</b></p><p>According to reports, the company stocks that Bill Hwang is suspected of manipulating include American media companies ViacomCBS, Discovery Communications Inc, Texas Capital Bancshares, Rocket Companies, etc.<b>There are also Chinese concept stocks such as Tencent Music and iQiyi.</b></p><p>However, Cox also added: \"Although the target of manipulation is unusual, the volume made by traders is also very unusual. In some ways, this unusual situation may help the government.\"</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Dickinson Wright's partner Jacob Frenkel said:</p><p>The burden of proof falls entirely on the government. But prosecutors typically don't file charges unless they expect a big victory based on evidence. The scale of the liquidation and the description of its actions suggest that it will be an uphill battle for the defendants. U.S. prosecutors have also received cooperation from Archegos' director of risk management and chief trader, who have pleaded guilty.<b>Their potential testimony could be critical to the outcome of the lawsuit if the case goes to trial. They were accused of lying to banks along with Hwang and Halligan to obtain billions of dollars used to inflate the company's share price.</b></p><p><b>Rather than delving into complex financial transactions to win juries over, prosecutors may focus on the huge lies spun by defendants at trials. However, court observers said that in the eyes of jurors, top investment banks are \"unwelcome\" victims, and it is difficult to arouse everyone's sympathy.</b></p><p>Frenkel noted that this could also explain why the prosecution did not charge the defendants with fraud against the bank. He added:<b>\"By not charging banks with fraud, the government can in turn weaken the defendant's excuse to exonerate themselves-that the bank is some form of accomplice.\"</b></p><p>According to the prosecution, the defendant's false statements to banks and brokerage companies constitute the crime of extortion. This came as a surprise to legal experts, as this charge is usually against organized crime.</p><p>John Coffee, a professor at Columbia University Law School, said that the severe confiscation penalty related to extortion crimes in the United States may be the primary reason why the authorities included this charge.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Big Liquidation of the Century\" Suspense: Did Bill Hwang manipulate the stock price?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Big Liquidation of the Century\" Suspense: Did Bill Hwang manipulate the stock price?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-30 18:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Experts say it may be difficult for U.S. authorities to prove that the hero of this \"big explosion of the century\" manipulated the market and pushed up stock prices.</p><p>Before Bill Hwang and Archegos' former chief financial officer Patrick Halligan were arrested by federal police on Wednesday, U.S. authorities had spent months gathering evidence to support their allegations. The charges are that they plotted to manipulate the stock prices of listed companies in order to increase earnings, which caused a huge shock in the American securities market.</p><p>The Archgos liquidation caused billions of dollars in losses to Wall Street's top investment banks and wiped out more than $100 billion from the valuations of nearly a dozen companies.<b>But legal experts say prosecutors may still struggle to prove that the defendants manipulated the stock price.</b>This requires persuading the jury to prove that Bill Hwang's artificially raised stock prices has imbalanced the normal supply and demand relationship in the securities market.</p><p>Bill Hwang's lawyer insisted that his client was \"completely innocent of any wrongdoing\" and that the allegations were exaggerated. He is innocent and will be proven innocent.</p><p>Can manipulating stock prices constitute a criminal case?</p><p>The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said in the indictment:</p><p>The pair and others at the firm made \"materially false and misleading statements\" to the big banks that arranged derivatives trades. None of these transactions are based on principled acts of true value to a particular issuer, but are intended to artificially inflate the stock price. Experts said,<b>These share purchases alone do not necessarily constitute illegal activity</b>, which may make it difficult to prove Bill Hwang's allegations of market manipulation.</p><p>A senior criminal lawyer asked:</p><p><b>If its purpose is only to drive the stock price, can this constitute a criminal case?</b>This is a very delicate and complex issue, and this case is an excellent case for us to think about it. Market manipulation is one of 11 criminal charges filed against Bill Hwang by U.S. prosecutors. He was also charged with racketeering and fraud. His deputy, former chief financial officer Patrick Halligan, was also arrested and charged, but not involving market manipulation. Both pleaded not guilty.</p><p>Allegations of market manipulation typically arise in civil cases filed by agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Compared with criminal proceedings, the burden of proof in civil cases is lighter.<b>But even then, attorneys struggled to make those charges valid.</b></p><p>A case 30 years ago involving John Mulheren, a popular Wall Street trader, is regarded as a rare criminal case of stock manipulation. His charge was ultimately overturned on the grounds that the jury's decision was based on speculation and there was insufficient evidence.</p><p>According to the Financial Times, James Cox, professor of corporate and securities law at Duke University, said the Mulheren case<b>\"Greatly illustrates the problems existing in the manipulation charge case\"</b>。</p><p>The SEC also accused Bill Hwang of ignoring his research analysts by ordering Archegos to trade before the market opens or in the last 30 minutes of the trading day to maximize market impact.</p><p>The case of manipulation targeting listed corporate giants is even more confusing</p><p>Cox Indicates,<b>For U.S. authorities, this is a \"gut check moment\", and this case will not be assured, because there are \"great challenges\" in refining a large amount of evidence and transaction data into a form understandable to jurors.</b></p><p>He added that as Archegos' capital ballooned from $1.5 billion in March 2020 to $35 billion a year later,<b>The alleged manipulation involves corporate giants listed on the largest U.S. exchanges, rather than other more typical small companies, so the case will be more complicated.</b></p><p>According to reports, the company stocks that Bill Hwang is suspected of manipulating include American media companies ViacomCBS, Discovery Communications Inc, Texas Capital Bancshares, Rocket Companies, etc.<b>There are also Chinese concept stocks such as Tencent Music and iQiyi.</b></p><p>However, Cox also added: \"Although the target of manipulation is unusual, the volume made by traders is also very unusual. In some ways, this unusual situation may help the government.\"</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Dickinson Wright's partner Jacob Frenkel said:</p><p>The burden of proof falls entirely on the government. But prosecutors typically don't file charges unless they expect a big victory based on evidence. The scale of the liquidation and the description of its actions suggest that it will be an uphill battle for the defendants. U.S. prosecutors have also received cooperation from Archegos' director of risk management and chief trader, who have pleaded guilty.<b>Their potential testimony could be critical to the outcome of the lawsuit if the case goes to trial. They were accused of lying to banks along with Hwang and Halligan to obtain billions of dollars used to inflate the company's share price.</b></p><p><b>Rather than delving into complex financial transactions to win juries over, prosecutors may focus on the huge lies spun by defendants at trials. However, court observers said that in the eyes of jurors, top investment banks are \"unwelcome\" victims, and it is difficult to arouse everyone's sympathy.</b></p><p>Frenkel noted that this could also explain why the prosecution did not charge the defendants with fraud against the bank. He added:<b>\"By not charging banks with fraud, the government can in turn weaken the defendant's excuse to exonerate themselves-that the bank is some form of accomplice.\"</b></p><p>According to the prosecution, the defendant's false statements to banks and brokerage companies constitute the crime of extortion. This came as a surprise to legal experts, as this charge is usually against organized crime.</p><p>John Coffee, a professor at Columbia University Law School, said that the severe confiscation penalty related to extortion crimes in the United States may be the primary reason why the authorities included this charge.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658349\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6661d0357fa5130f62970f5816d2c6b1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658349","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1145531422","content_text":"专家表示，美国当局可能很难证明，这场“世纪大爆仓”的主人公，操纵市场并推高股价。在周三 Bill Hwang 和 Archegos 的前首席财务官 Patrick Halligan 被联邦警方逮捕之前，美国当局已经花了数月时间来收集证据，支持他们的指控。指控的罪名是他们为提高收益而策划操纵上市公司股价，在美国证券市场上引起了巨震。Archgos的爆仓事件给华尔街的顶级投行们造成了数十亿美元的损失，并使近12家公司的估值蒸发了超过1000亿美元。但法律专家表示，检察官可能仍难以证明被告操纵股价。这需要说服陪审团，证明 Bill Hwang 人为抬高股价的行为，已经使证券市场正常的供求关系失衡。Bill Hwang的律师坚称，他的当事人“完全没有任何不当行为\"，这些指控是夸大其词。他是无辜的，将被证明无罪。操纵股价就能构成刑事案件吗？美国证监会（SEC）在起诉书中表示：两人和公司的其他人向安排衍生品交易的大银行做出了“重大虚假和误导性陈述”。这些交易都不是基于对特定发行者真实价值的原则性行为，而是有意人为地抬高股价。专家表示，单单是这些购买股票的行为并不一定构成非法活动，这可能会让 Bill Hwang 操纵市场的指控很难得到证明。一位资深的犯罪律师发问道：如果其目的仅仅是推动股价，这难道就能构成刑事案件吗？这是一个非常微妙和复杂的问题，本案是让我们思考这个问题的绝佳案例。市场操纵是美国检方对 Bill Hwang 提起的11项刑事指控之一。他还被指控犯有敲诈勒索罪和欺诈罪。他的副手、前首席财务官 Patrick Halligan 也被逮捕和指控，但不涉及市场操纵。两人都表示不认罪。操纵市场的指控通常出现在美国证监会（SEC）或商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）等机构提起的民事案件中。与刑事诉讼相比，民事案件的举证责任较轻。但即便如此，律师也很难使这些指控成立。30年前涉及华尔街当红交易员约翰·穆赫伦（John Mulheren）的一起案件，被视为是罕见的股票操纵刑事案例。他的罪名最终被推翻，理由是陪审团的决定是基于猜测，并且证据不足。据英国金融时报报道，杜克大学公司法和证券法教授 James Cox 表示，穆赫伦案“极大地说明了操纵指控案存在的问题”。SEC 还指控 Bill Hwang 无视他的研究分析师，下令 Archegos 在开盘前或交易日最后30分钟进行交易，以最大限度地扩大市场影响。操纵目标为上市企业巨头 案件更为扑朔迷离Cox 表示，对美国当局来说，这是一个“检查信心的时刻（gut check moment）”，这一案件不会是有把握的，因为要将大量证据和交易数据提炼成陪审员可以理解的形式，这存在着“巨大的挑战”。他补充说，由于 Archegos 公司资本从2020年3月的15亿美元膨胀到一年后的350亿美元，被指控的操纵行为涉及在美国最大交易所上市的企业巨头们，而不是其他更典型的小型公司，因此该案件将更加复杂。据报道，Bill Hwang 涉嫌操纵的公司股票包括美国媒体公司 ViacomCBS、Discovery Communications Inc、Texas Capital Bancshares、Rocket Companies等，还有腾讯音乐、爱奇艺等中概股。然而，Cox 还补充道：“尽管操纵的目标不同寻常，但交易员所做的成交量也非常不同寻常。在某些方面，这种不寻常的情况可能会帮助到政府。”据英国金融时报报道，Dickinson Wright 的合伙人 Jacob Frenkel 表示：举证责任完全落在政府头上。但检察官通常不会提出指控，除非他们根据证据预计会大获全胜。爆仓的规模和对其行为的描述表明，对被告来说，这将是一场艰苦的战斗。美国检方还得到了 Archegos 风险管理总监和首席交易员的配合，他们已经认罪。如果案件进入审判阶段，他们的潜在证词可能对诉讼的结果至关重要。他们被指控与 Hwang 和 Halligan 一起向银行撒谎，以获得用于抬高公司股价的数十亿美元。在审判中，检察官可能会将重点放在被告编织的巨大谎言上，而不是深入研究复杂的金融交易来赢得陪审团的支持。但法庭观察人士表示，在陪审员眼里，顶级投行是“不受欢迎的”受害者，很难引起大家的同情。Frenkel指出，这也可以解释为什么检方没有指控被告对银行进行欺诈。他补充说：“政府不指控银行诈骗罪，反过来可以削弱被告为自己开脱罪名的借口——即银行是其某种形式的共犯。”检方称，被告对银行和经纪公司的虚假陈述，构成了敲诈勒索罪。这令法律专家感到意外，因为这一指控通常针对有组织犯罪。哥伦比亚大学法学院教授 John Coffee 表示，与美国敲诈勒索罪名相关的严厉没收处罚，可能才是当局列入这一指控的首要原因。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9084363631,"gmtCreate":1650812611181,"gmtModify":1676534797099,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084363631","repostId":"1182938074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085561078,"gmtCreate":1650728743619,"gmtModify":1676534783344,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085561078","repostId":"1159108899","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082864572,"gmtCreate":1650551124927,"gmtModify":1676534749981,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082864572","repostId":"1141032462","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9037083589,"gmtCreate":1647992704981,"gmtModify":1676534289128,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037083589","repostId":"2221091549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221091549","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647987950,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221091549?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 06:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hawkish Fed officials are out in force, and U.S. debt hits worst quarterly performance in nearly 40 years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221091549","media":"金十数据","summary":"当前货币市场预计，到2022年底，美联储可能再进行8次25个基点的加息，下次会议加息50个基点的可能性超过四分之三。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Other Fed officials responded after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted in a speech on Monday that the FOMC could decide 50 basis points on rate hike at its next policy meeting if necessary.</p><p><b>Mester: 50 basis point option for rate hike should not be ruled out</b></p><p>In the early morning of Wednesday, Beijing time, the 2022 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy. She said,<b>Doesn't think rate hike's 50 basis point option should be ruled out</b>，<b>Leaning to raise interest rates to 2.5% by the end of 2022</b>，<b>That is, it supports the Fed to conduct about 9.6 standard 25 basis point rate hike throughout the year, while expecting further rate hike above the neutral level in 2023</b>。 Meister says:</p><p>\"Based on my forecasts, I think at some meetings we will need 50 basis points of rate hike.\" The risk of too high inflation will be entrenched in economic development, long-term inflation expectations remain stable, and the best policy can do is restore price stability, Meister said. She pointed out that the upside risks to inflation brought by the conflict in Ukraine are greater than the downside risks to U.S. economic growth. The basic scenario is that the economy will grow at an above-trend rate and maintain healthy job growth. The Federal Reserve needs to synchronize policies with the current economy and need to take Action to reduce excess demand.</p><p>Mester expects inflation to fall this year, but not return to 2%. She said:</p><p>\"We do need to keep inflation under control. It's important to use our two tools (rate hike and shrinking balance sheet) to get inflation on a better trajectory. shrinking balance sheet won't be the main tool to fight inflation, but we will'do what we can 'to lower inflation.\"<b>Daly: Time for the Fed to raise interest rates to neutral levels</b></p><p>U.S. Treasury Bond yields surged following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech as investors upped their bets on the number of rate hike the Fed will make in 2022, with even doves like San Francisco Fed President Daly now supporting strong action.</p><p>Speaking at an event Tuesday, Daly said:</p><p>\"The Fed may consider tightening to contractionary (monetary) policy. It's time for the Fed to raise interest rates to a neutral level.\" Daly said the Fed needs to tighten policy given high inflation and a strong U.S. economy. Inflation is too high, and this combined with two supply chain shocks has pushed it up even more, she said. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict develops, uncertainty is also a problem. She expects policy adjustments from the Federal Reserve and other factors to lower inflation, but doesn't expect it to fall to 2% by the end of the year.</p><p><b>Bullard: A 50 basis point rate hike is sure to come</b></p><p>St. Louis Fed President and 2022 FOMC voting member Bullard also reiterated in an interview on Tuesday night that the Fed needs to take aggressive action to curb inflation, needs to make policy neutral, and<b>\"The sooner the better\"</b>。 Brad says:</p><p>\"I think a 50 basis point rate hike is definitely coming.\" When asked how quickly the Fed should move, Bullard said \"the sooner the better,\" adding that \"the 1994 tightening cycle or the uneasing cycle is probably the best analogy.\"</p><p>From 1994 to early 1995, the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan raised interest rates from 3% to 6%, achieving a \"soft landing\" for the economy, inflation was brought under control, and the economy continued to grow strongly, achieving the longest 10-year expansion ever.</p><p>Brad says:</p><p>\"History tells us that the faster we pivot to this scenario, the more likely we are to push inflation back to target levels and allow the U.S. economy to thrive.\" Bullard also believes the Fed should start a shrinking balance sheet because the central bank has allowed its balance sheet to expand for too long. He expressed<b>There's no reason not to start shrinking balance sheet right away</b>He hopes that the Federal Reserve will adopt moderate restrictive policies this year and cannot wait for geopolitical tensions to ease.</p><p>Brad still thinks<b>The Fed can achieve a soft landing</b>。 He said the real economy is doing very well, and this is the best job market in several years.</p><p>Earlier, Bullard expressed support for raising interest rates above 3% this year, a more aggressive forecast than any other colleague.</p><p>Robert Dent, U.S. economist at Nomura, said:</p><p>\"Powell's remarks on Monday were aimed at pushing the Fed for a 50 basis point rate hike at its May meeting. Officials are now showing an increasingly urgent need not only to control inflation, but also to cool the labor market to prevent a wage-price spiral.\"<b>U.S. bond market sells off</b></p><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish rhetoric on FOMC rate hike outlook this week<b>The current money market predicts that by the end of 2022, the Federal Reserve may conduct eight more 25 basis point rate hike, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike at the next meeting is more than three-quarters.</b></p><p>At the same time, Powell's speech also forced investors to sell U.S. debt. U.S. Treasury Bond sold off across the board on Tuesday, continuing the previous day's trend,<b>Short-term bonds set for worst quarterly performance in nearly 40 years</b>。</p><p>10-year U.S. Treasury yields led gains on Tuesday, climbing nearly 10 basis points at one point. The 2-year Treasury Bond yield, which is closely related to policy expectations, once rose by about 7 percentage points to 2.18%, expanding its increase since 2021 to 145 basis points, and is expected to achieve its<b>Largest quarterly increase since 1984</b>, that year the Federal Reserve gradually tightened policy by 50 basis points or more.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6da22132e4fea48c8c39a59be9a54ad\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The gap between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has further narrowed to its smallest level since 2007,<b>This suggests that tightening policy will slow down economic growth or even lead to recession</b>。 This has prompted investors to question the bond's ability to provide protection in such a situation.</p><p>\"I'm not saying that bonds don't provide a buffer if we face recession risks\",<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Christian Mueller-Glissmann, managing director of international portfolio strategy and asset allocation, said, \"But you also have to be careful about how much buffer assets, such as safe assets, can provide relative to your cost at risk.\"</p><p>From a broader perspective,<b>U.S. Treasury Bond is facing its worst quarterly drop since at least 1973</b>。 As of Monday's close, the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index had fallen 5.55% since Dec. 31 last year, surpassing the 5.45% drop in early 1980 and the biggest quarterly drop since the indicator was launched.</p><p>In addition, the yield on the 10-year U.S. municipal bond (AAA rating) rose 12 basis points on Tuesday, the largest intraday increase since April 2020, to 2.06%, and the yield on the 30-year U.S. municipal bond rose 11 basis points to 2.44%.%. Bloomberg data shows that U.S. municipal bonds (prices) have fallen about 5% so far in 2022,<b>May hit the worst single-quarter performance since 1994</b>。</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish Fed officials are out in force, and U.S. debt hits worst quarterly performance in nearly 40 years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHawkish Fed officials are out in force, and U.S. debt hits worst quarterly performance in nearly 40 years\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-23 06:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Other Fed officials responded after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted in a speech on Monday that the FOMC could decide 50 basis points on rate hike at its next policy meeting if necessary.</p><p><b>Mester: 50 basis point option for rate hike should not be ruled out</b></p><p>In the early morning of Wednesday, Beijing time, the 2022 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy. She said,<b>Doesn't think rate hike's 50 basis point option should be ruled out</b>，<b>Leaning to raise interest rates to 2.5% by the end of 2022</b>，<b>That is, it supports the Fed to conduct about 9.6 standard 25 basis point rate hike throughout the year, while expecting further rate hike above the neutral level in 2023</b>。 Meister says:</p><p>\"Based on my forecasts, I think at some meetings we will need 50 basis points of rate hike.\" The risk of too high inflation will be entrenched in economic development, long-term inflation expectations remain stable, and the best policy can do is restore price stability, Meister said. She pointed out that the upside risks to inflation brought by the conflict in Ukraine are greater than the downside risks to U.S. economic growth. The basic scenario is that the economy will grow at an above-trend rate and maintain healthy job growth. The Federal Reserve needs to synchronize policies with the current economy and need to take Action to reduce excess demand.</p><p>Mester expects inflation to fall this year, but not return to 2%. She said:</p><p>\"We do need to keep inflation under control. It's important to use our two tools (rate hike and shrinking balance sheet) to get inflation on a better trajectory. shrinking balance sheet won't be the main tool to fight inflation, but we will'do what we can 'to lower inflation.\"<b>Daly: Time for the Fed to raise interest rates to neutral levels</b></p><p>U.S. Treasury Bond yields surged following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech as investors upped their bets on the number of rate hike the Fed will make in 2022, with even doves like San Francisco Fed President Daly now supporting strong action.</p><p>Speaking at an event Tuesday, Daly said:</p><p>\"The Fed may consider tightening to contractionary (monetary) policy. It's time for the Fed to raise interest rates to a neutral level.\" Daly said the Fed needs to tighten policy given high inflation and a strong U.S. economy. Inflation is too high, and this combined with two supply chain shocks has pushed it up even more, she said. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict develops, uncertainty is also a problem. She expects policy adjustments from the Federal Reserve and other factors to lower inflation, but doesn't expect it to fall to 2% by the end of the year.</p><p><b>Bullard: A 50 basis point rate hike is sure to come</b></p><p>St. Louis Fed President and 2022 FOMC voting member Bullard also reiterated in an interview on Tuesday night that the Fed needs to take aggressive action to curb inflation, needs to make policy neutral, and<b>\"The sooner the better\"</b>。 Brad says:</p><p>\"I think a 50 basis point rate hike is definitely coming.\" When asked how quickly the Fed should move, Bullard said \"the sooner the better,\" adding that \"the 1994 tightening cycle or the uneasing cycle is probably the best analogy.\"</p><p>From 1994 to early 1995, the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan raised interest rates from 3% to 6%, achieving a \"soft landing\" for the economy, inflation was brought under control, and the economy continued to grow strongly, achieving the longest 10-year expansion ever.</p><p>Brad says:</p><p>\"History tells us that the faster we pivot to this scenario, the more likely we are to push inflation back to target levels and allow the U.S. economy to thrive.\" Bullard also believes the Fed should start a shrinking balance sheet because the central bank has allowed its balance sheet to expand for too long. He expressed<b>There's no reason not to start shrinking balance sheet right away</b>He hopes that the Federal Reserve will adopt moderate restrictive policies this year and cannot wait for geopolitical tensions to ease.</p><p>Brad still thinks<b>The Fed can achieve a soft landing</b>。 He said the real economy is doing very well, and this is the best job market in several years.</p><p>Earlier, Bullard expressed support for raising interest rates above 3% this year, a more aggressive forecast than any other colleague.</p><p>Robert Dent, U.S. economist at Nomura, said:</p><p>\"Powell's remarks on Monday were aimed at pushing the Fed for a 50 basis point rate hike at its May meeting. Officials are now showing an increasingly urgent need not only to control inflation, but also to cool the labor market to prevent a wage-price spiral.\"<b>U.S. bond market sells off</b></p><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish rhetoric on FOMC rate hike outlook this week<b>The current money market predicts that by the end of 2022, the Federal Reserve may conduct eight more 25 basis point rate hike, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike at the next meeting is more than three-quarters.</b></p><p>At the same time, Powell's speech also forced investors to sell U.S. debt. U.S. Treasury Bond sold off across the board on Tuesday, continuing the previous day's trend,<b>Short-term bonds set for worst quarterly performance in nearly 40 years</b>。</p><p>10-year U.S. Treasury yields led gains on Tuesday, climbing nearly 10 basis points at one point. The 2-year Treasury Bond yield, which is closely related to policy expectations, once rose by about 7 percentage points to 2.18%, expanding its increase since 2021 to 145 basis points, and is expected to achieve its<b>Largest quarterly increase since 1984</b>, that year the Federal Reserve gradually tightened policy by 50 basis points or more.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6da22132e4fea48c8c39a59be9a54ad\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The gap between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has further narrowed to its smallest level since 2007,<b>This suggests that tightening policy will slow down economic growth or even lead to recession</b>。 This has prompted investors to question the bond's ability to provide protection in such a situation.</p><p>\"I'm not saying that bonds don't provide a buffer if we face recession risks\",<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Christian Mueller-Glissmann, managing director of international portfolio strategy and asset allocation, said, \"But you also have to be careful about how much buffer assets, such as safe assets, can provide relative to your cost at risk.\"</p><p>From a broader perspective,<b>U.S. Treasury Bond is facing its worst quarterly drop since at least 1973</b>。 As of Monday's close, the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index had fallen 5.55% since Dec. 31 last year, surpassing the 5.45% drop in early 1980 and the biggest quarterly drop since the indicator was launched.</p><p>In addition, the yield on the 10-year U.S. municipal bond (AAA rating) rose 12 basis points on Tuesday, the largest intraday increase since April 2020, to 2.06%, and the yield on the 30-year U.S. municipal bond rose 11 basis points to 2.44%.%. Bloomberg data shows that U.S. municipal bonds (prices) have fallen about 5% so far in 2022,<b>May hit the worst single-quarter performance since 1994</b>。</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=91700&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ce7014259f64e9378baf244bd5b117","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year 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Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=91700&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2221091549","content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔在周一讲话中暗示必要时FOMC可以在下次政策会议上决定加息50个基点后，其他美联储官员纷纷响应。梅斯特：不应排除加息50个基点的选项北京时间周三凌晨，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特就美国经济前景和货币政策发表讲话。她表示，不认为加息50个基点的选项应该被排除，倾向于在2022年底前将利率提高到2.5%，即支持美联储全年进行约9.6次25个基点的标准加息，同时预计2023年将在中性水平之上进一步加息。梅斯特说：“根据我的预测，我认为在某些会议上我们将需要加息50个基点。”梅斯特称，通胀过高的风险将在经济发展中根深蒂固，长期通胀预期仍然稳定，政策能做的最好的事情就是恢复价格稳定。她指出，乌克兰冲突带来的通胀上行风险大于美国经济增长的下行风险，基本情况是经济将以高于趋势的速度增长并维持健康的就业增长，美联储需要使政策与当前的经济同步，需要采取行动来减少过度需求。梅斯特预计，今年通货膨胀率会下降，但不会回到2%。她说：“我们确实需要控制通货膨胀。重要的是要使用我们的两种工具（加息和缩表）来让通胀进入一个更好的轨道。缩表不会是对抗通胀的主要工具，但我们会‘尽我们所能’降低通胀。”戴利：美联储将利率上调至中性水平的时候到了美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话后，美国国债收益率飙升，因为投资者加大了对美联储在2022年加息次数的押注，甚至像旧金山联储主席戴利这样的鸽派人士现在也支持采取强有力的行动。戴利周二在一次活动中说：“美联储或可考虑收紧至紧缩性（货币）政策。美联储将利率上调至中性水平的时候到了。”戴利称，考虑到高通胀和强劲的美国经济，美联储需要收紧政策。她说，通胀太高了，再加上两次供应链冲击进一步推高了通胀。随着俄乌冲突发展，不确定性也是一个问题。她预计美联储的政策调整和其他因素会降低通胀，但不认为年底通胀率会降至2%。布拉德：50个基点的加息肯定会出现圣路易斯联储主席、2022年FOMC票委布拉德周二晚间在接受采访时也重申，美联储需要采取积极行动来遏制通胀，需要让政策趋于中性，而且“越快越好”。布拉德说：“我认为50个基点的加息肯定会出现。”当被问及美联储应该采取多快的行动时，布拉德表示“越快越好”，并补充说“1994年的紧缩周期或取消宽松周期可能是最好的类比”。从1994年到1995年初，艾伦·格林斯潘领导下的美联储将利率从3%提高到6%，实现了经济“软着陆”，通胀得到控制，经济持续强劲增长，实现了有史以来最长的10年扩张。布拉德说：“历史告诉我们，我们越快转向这种情况，我们就越有可能将通胀推回目标水平并让美国经济繁荣。”布拉德还认为，美联储应该开始缩表，因为美联储允许资产负债表扩张的时间已经过长。他表示没有理由不马上开始缩表，他希望美联储今年采取温和的限制性政策，不能坐等地缘政治紧张局势缓解。布拉德仍然认为美联储可以实现软着陆。他说实体经济表现非常好，这是几年来最好的就业市场。此前，布拉德表示支持今年将利率提高到3%以上，这个预测比其他任何一位同僚都更加激进。野村证券美国经济学家罗伯特·登特表示：“鲍威尔周一的讲话旨在推动美联储在5月会议上加息50个基点。官员们现在表现出越来越迫切的需要，不仅要控制通胀，还要冷却劳动力市场，以防止工资价格螺旋上升。”美债市场抛售不止美联储主席鲍威尔本周针对FOMC加息前景的鹰派论调令当前货币市场预计，到2022年底，美联储可能会再进行8次25个基点的加息，下次会议加息50个基点的可能性超过四分之三。同时，鲍威尔的讲话也迫使投资者抛售美债。美国国债周二全线遭到抛售，延续了前一天的走势，短期债券势将创下近40年来最糟糕的季度表现。周二10年期美债收益率领涨，一度攀升近10个基点。与政策预期密切相关的2年期国债收益率一度上涨约7个百分点至2.18%，使其自2021年以来的涨幅扩大至145个基点，有望实现自1984年以来最大的季度增幅，当年美联储以50个基点或更大的幅度逐步收紧政策。5年期和30年期美债收益率之间的差距进一步缩小至2007年以来的最小水平，这表明收紧政策将减缓经济增速甚至导致衰退。这促使投资者质疑债券在这种情况下提供保护的能力。“我并不是说，如果我们面临衰退风险，债券就无法提供缓冲”，高盛国际投资组合策略和资产配置董事总经理克Christian Mueller-Glissmann表示，“但你也必须小心资产，比如安全资产，相对于你在风险中的成本，能提供多少缓冲”。从更广泛的角度来看，美国国债正面临至少自1973年以来最严重的季度跌幅。截至周一收盘，彭博美国国债指数自去年12月31日以来已下跌5.55%，超过了1980年初的5.45%跌幅，为该指标推出以来最大的季度跌幅。另外，美国10年期市政债券（AAA评级）收益率周二上涨12个基点，创2020年4月份以来最大盘中涨幅，至2.06%，30年期美国市政债券收益率涨11个基点，报2.44%。彭博数据显示，美国市政债券（价格）2022年迄今下跌大约5%，恐将创1994年以来最差单季表现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SHY":0.6,"SH":0.6,"TNmain":1,"SSO":0.6,"UBmain":1,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SPXU":0.6,"ZBmain":1,"DJX":0.6,"TLT":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"GOVT":0.6,"ZFmain":1,"IEI":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"BND":1,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".DJI":1,"ZTmain":1,"TQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"ZNmain":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"IEF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034951702,"gmtCreate":1647768092415,"gmtModify":1676534264547,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034951702","repostId":"2220000701","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038956421,"gmtCreate":1646720419377,"gmtModify":1676534155129,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038956421","repostId":"1186846683","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186846683","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"图文并茂讲解中金深度研究报告","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中金点睛","id":"1012212489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75"},"pubTimestamp":1646792307,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186846683?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-09 10:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"From geopolitical hedging to inflation concerns, market logic has begun to change?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186846683","media":"中金点睛","summary":"在本周伊始，美国三大主要股指连续两个交易日在震荡交投中收跌，相比之下，大宗商品普遍大涨。市场为何会有此反应，在交易什么？后续会有何演变？本周初全球市场再度剧烈动荡，周一亚太、美股和欧洲主要市场普遍大跌","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>At the beginning of the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down in volatile trading for two consecutive trading days. In contrast, commodities generally rose sharply. Why does the market react like this and what is it trading? What will happen in the future? At the beginning of this week, the global market was in violent turmoil again. On Monday, major markets in Asia-Pacific, U.S. stocks and Europe generally fell sharply, and the Chinese market was also affected. Hong Kong stocks even hit a new low since the epidemic, and continued their decline on Tuesday. In contrast, commodities generally rose sharply. Brent oil prices once approached US $140/barrel, a new high since 2008, WTI crude oil also approached US $125/barrel, wheat continued to rise by 7%, and LME nickel rose by as much as 74%. Under the interweaving of risk aversion and inflation sentiment, we see that the US Dollar Index continues to strengthen to 99, gold impacts rise to $2,000 per ounce, and US Treasury yields remains flat and rises slightly, but it is mainly driven by inflation expectations (10-year Breakeven hit a new high of 2.85%, TIPS real interest rates fell to a low of-1.07%).</p><p><b>Chart 1: Since the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, in terms of US dollar pricing, wheat, crude oil, and VIX bulls have led the gains among major global asset classes, while Russian stocks have led the decline</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f5858bc8a65a21b378d371eddddf4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 2: Since the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, commodities have generally risen, with crude oil, wheat and LME nickel rising sharply</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a39be9f88bd492786a8d094dcacda6e9\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 3: US Treasury yields was flat and slightly higher, but mainly driven by inflation expectations (10-year Breakeven hit a new high of 2.85%, while TIPS real interest rate fell to a low of-1.07%)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ac999b8c0d1b983d3b5cb2a0b9d6f1\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>1. Why does the market react like this and what is it trading?</b></p><p><b>The main reason is that the trading logic has changed, from risk aversion at the beginning to stagflation with fears of inflation or even weakening growth.</b></p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than ten days and continues to ferment, but its impact is gradually becoming clear. In a series of recent analyses on the situation in Russia and Ukraine (\"The Asset Implications of the Situation in Russia and Ukraine Superimposed on the Dislocation of Sino-US Policies\", \"The Impact Path and Transmission Logic of the Situation in Russia and Ukraine\"), we have sorted out the impact logic of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, mainly There are four levels:</p><p><b>1. The first is risk appetite and risk aversion.</b>However, if the impact is limited to this level, then it is not enough to worry about, or even enough to do too many positions. The historical experience of previous geopolitical conflicts has verified this point many times (\"How do geopolitical risks affect asset prices?\");</p><p><b>Chart 4: Performance of major global markets and asset prices before and after typical local wars in the past 20 years</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/745e7b8a67c841a4d226937579daf8c2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>2. The second layer is the disturbance of the supply chain. Geopolitical conflicts are essentially a supply shock first and foremost, either short or long.</b>Due to the characteristics of the geo-economic and industrial structure of Russia and Ukraine involved in this conflict, its disturbances are more concentrated on major resource products, such as crude oil, natural gas and agricultural products (wheat, corn); In terms of regions, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and some emerging markets (fertilizers, agricultural products) account for a relatively high proportion (for details, please see the analysis in \"How much impact does the Russia-Ukraine situation have on the global supply chain?\");</p><p>What happens this time is that the supply shock that has been continuously disturbed due to factors such as the epidemic and extreme weather has not completely subsided, and inflation in developed markets is already at a high level.<b>Short-term supply shocks exacerbate this contradiction,</b>Naturally, it has increased the market's concerns about future price pressures, tightening expectations, and even recession expectations (for example, the 2s10s spread has narrowed to about 20bp, which is the narrowest before the opening of all previous rate hike).</p><p><b>Chart 5: Russia's export structure (OEC caliber, data as of the end of 2021)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc8b35ebb2f8a5cbc5158f4bf9e5508\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: OEC, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 6: The proportion of Russian intermediate products imported by major countries under the OECD TiVA caliber in the country's total intermediate products imported by the country</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341c3a386c21e6f2766189ffc1dcf34a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 7: The 2s10s spread has narrowed to about 20bp, which is the narrowest before the rate hike started</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f814593fd0fe9b509a48a67156af3eb\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 8: Due to the characteristics of the geo-economic and industrial structure of Russia and Ukraine involved in the conflict, the disturbances are more concentrated on major resource products, such as crude oil, natural gas and agricultural products (wheat, corn), etc.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b6e061cb2bdb44d852f857c73938484\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>3. The third layer is the disturbance of financial markets and global liquidity.</b>Judging from the current scale of Russia's external liabilities, the scale of foreign currency denomination and the coverage of foreign exchange reserves, and the exposure of other financial institutions to Russian bonds, the scale is relatively small, and the direct impact is relatively controllable. Therefore, in the face of existing sanctions (such as major banks restricting overseas US dollar financing and transactions, restricting the central bank's use of overseas foreign exchange reserves, and removing seven banks from SWIFT system, etc.), it is currently affected.</p><p>However, if the situation escalates further, for example, Russia is forced to sell its overseas assets (as of the third quarter of 2021, the scale of overseas portfolio investments held is US $302 billion, of which US $218 billion is equity investments; from the perspective of foreign reserves and Russian sovereign funds, the proportion of Chinese assets held is about 13% and 20%), or actively and passively defaults on its sovereign debt (as of 4Q21, external liabilities are US $478.2 billion, foreign currency debt is US $413.1 billion, of which China's exposure is not large).<b>Only in this case can we expect to stop the short-term Fed rate hike.</b></p><p>Judging from the information available at present, this risk is still relatively controllable, but we have also observed that the EUR/JPY cross-swap, which measures the global dollar liquidity, the FRA-OIS, which measures the liquidity of the domestic financial system in the United States, and the credit spread of corporate financing conditions all show signs of rising, which deserves close attention.</p><p><b>Chart 9: Since mid-February, the FRA-OIS spread has risen rapidly, currently rising to 37.2 bp, higher than the average level since 2008</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b6153db61a3d1225871a941afffb60\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 10: Recently, the poor swap of major exchange rates against the US dollar has also increased significantly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b24390d4686d860a80b75c0f9a888143\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 11: U.S. high-yield bond and investment-grade credit spreads have also risen significantly recently</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476ac3526e425339299ff9891abaaac4\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 12: As of 3Q21, the amount of debt claims against Russia by banking industries in various countries mainly comes from French, Austrian and Italian banks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1bfd82c07f37556f7b35fd7d5e0d87a\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 13: As of 4Q21, the overall foreign currency-denominated liabilities of various sectors in Russia accounted for about 24% of GDP, of which the non-financial corporate sector accounted for about 18%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c2bda4bd6696c17b9cd41b5b8dba3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: IIF, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 14: As of the third quarter of 2021, the scale of overseas portfolio investments held was US $302 billion, of which US $218 billion was equity investment</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d18b7f21cb14cacdbb9f4b0b5af8225\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 15: The proportion of US dollars in the Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange and gold reserves has dropped significantly, from 46% at the end of 2017 to 16% at the end of June 2021</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff2cb86b2f21ca529b2d781e53d23f4\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 16: Since 2021, Russian sovereign funds have gradually increased RMB assets; U.S. dollar assets held after June 2021 have been cleared</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8431f564e65914430491ceeacde23ad\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>4. As a drag on trade and global growth,</b>It is a relatively more medium-term change, and at the same time it has a greater impact on Europe.</p><p>At present, the impact of the first level has already appeared, the impact of the second level is the most obvious and still fermenting, and the impact of the third level has not yet become dominant and deserves attention. It is not difficult to explain the reasons for recent market fluctuations. Risk aversion and inflation and even stagflation concerns intertwine to affect market trends.</p><p><b>2. Possible subsequent evolution: factual supply shocks have been caused, but more importantly, the path of \"far-end\" inflation and rate hike</b></p><p>For the second level, which is also the most dominant supply chain disturbance at present,<b>What we know and are certain is that the factual shock has been caused, for whatever reason</b>(Port blockade or poor transportation, spontaneous reduction, or due to the decline in financial information transmission efficiency), the corresponding impact has also been caused (for example, we estimate that if the current oil price is included, the inflection point of inflation will be delayed than if the rising oil price is not included). It appears one month later; if the oil price climbs to US $150/barrel in the next three months, the inflection point will be delayed by two months).</p><p><b>Chart 17: We estimate that if the current oil price is included, the inflection point of inflation will appear one month later than if the rising oil price is not included; If oil prices climb to US $150/barrel in the next three months, the inflection point will be delayed by two months</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c8804b7b1477338398b4447120bf0dc\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>But what is more important is whether the impact is an instantaneous upward rush, or whether it will continue to remain high or even go up further, which is even more important for the \"far-end\" inflation path and monetary policy path.</b>After all, without the sharp rise in oil prices and other commodities caused by this conflict, inflation and supply contradictions in the United States are expected to gradually improve (the fall in non-agricultural wages in February illustrates this point, \"Looking at the improvement of the epidemic from the perspective of non-agricultural and supply chains\" Effect \"), and the market's expectations for\" near-end \"rate hike have been fully taken into account.</p><p><b>Chart 18: The current CME interest rate futures imply 1.0 rate hike in March, 2.8 rate hike in June, and 4.9 rate hike in December</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb69b0acaceb4ae875cd5950ea8c40b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>The subsequent trend of this path is highly dependent on the subsequent sanctions and the progress of the situation, especially the trend of short-term extreme values.</b>At present, there are certain differences between Europe and the United States on whether to sanction Russian energy exports, which is related to different dependence on it (for example, Russia only accounts for about 8% of U.S. crude oil imports, while Europe is more dependent, especially natural gas). Without sanctions, it would be difficult to maintain commodity prices, which have nearly reached highs. If Europe and the United States really take strict sanctions, it will lead to a huge shortage of Russia's export volume of about 7 million barrels in the short term. Although according to the estimation of our bulk group, the supply of all parties can fill this \"hole\" (OPEC's production space is 3 million barrels, the remaining production capacity is about 2 million barrels, Iran's 1-1.5 million barrels, and shale oil is estimated to be 2 million barrels), but it may still be difficult to avoid the previous premium, let alone emotional disturbance.</p><p><b>Chart 23: Corn export structure and Ukrainian corn export destinations (data as of the end of 2019)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb287c840c443231d373e97943aa18db\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: OEC, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 24: Export structure of rapeseed oil and export destinations of Ukrainian rapeseed oil (data as of the end of 2019)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28deabc21b9f407f4aafa70277acbe3b\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: OEC, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 19: Europe and the United States imposed two rounds of sanctions on Iran's crude oil exports in 2012 and 2018. Iran's crude oil exports plummeted by 42.2% in 2013 and 64.8% in 2019.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd2ba30edb7af7368f598d927a9d05f\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: wind, CICC Research</p><p><b>3. What to observe next? Sanctions, rate hike Pathways, Term Spreads, Liquidity Indicators</b></p><p>Therefore, next, we think we need to focus on observing the following factors:</p><p><b>1) Sanctions progress:</b>The geopolitical situation, especially the trend of energy sanctions, remains the most important determinant in the short term.</p><p><b>2) March FOMC:</b>In the coming March, the FOMC will give the follow-up monetary policy path (such as the rate hike level of shrinking balance sheet and dot plot). Judging from the current situation,<b>The \"near-end\" operation will still be step by step rate hike</b>(Employment is good and inflation is still high; the market expects a high certainty of rate hike of 25bp in March), but<b>The \"far\" rate hike path has variables.</b>If the situation in Russia and Ukraine can easily soon and the price impact is relatively \"instantaneous\", then the general direction of improvement in inflationary pressure can still be expected; If this impact is further solidified, the rise in the expectation of \"far-end\" rate hike and the impact on interest rates and market valuations also need to be revised upward again.</p><p><b>3) Term spread,</b>As the current risk aversion and even stagflation worries are intertwined, the long-term and short-term interest rate spreads narrow too rapidly (currently only 20bp), the Fed may need to push up the long-term interest rate through shrinking balance sheet to avoid excessive inversion (\"If the Fed makes a rate hike of 50bp\"), but if inflation continues to be high or even far-end inflation is longer and larger than expected, then the negative effects caused by \"curve inversion\" may gradually appear.</p><p><b>Chart 20: Due to the current interweaving of risk aversion and even stagflation concerns, the long-term and short-term interest rate spreads have narrowed too rapidly (currently only 20bp), so the Federal Reserve may need to use shrinking balance sheet to push up long-term interest rates to avoid too fast inversion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbe346aee3106ba78c227aaecccfe496\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>4) Changes in liquidity indicators,</b>Whether there are signs of contagion of liquidity risk.</p><p><b>4. Market impact? Short-term twists and turns but oversold, bulk may still have support; If it is upgraded, midstream and downstream and banks will be damaged</b></p><p><b>In this context, the market does not rule out the pressure of twists and turns until the situation becomes clear.</b>Especially Europe, which is highly exposed to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and some emerging markets with poor ability to resist risks.<b>But at present, major markets are also obviously oversold.</b>Such as Hong Kong stocks, European and emerging stocks. On the contrary, commodities are also obviously overbought, such as gold and oil, and their trend is highly dependent on the geopolitical situation, so there may be support at high levels, but we are not fully sure of further sharp upward movement from the current high.</p><p><b>If the situation escalates further,</b>Midstream and downstream sectors and U.S. stock banks may be damaged due to rising costs and flattening interest rate spreads. On the contrary, the concept of price increases (energy and agricultural products), risk aversion (such as high Dividend) and steady growth may be more sensitive to hedging.</p><p><b>Chart 21: The current S&P 500 is close to oversold</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ce54a19f70a022568c353cf5887ff5\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 22: Current Brent oil is seriously overbought</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aca2a064acda3e32120583926f5cd3ea\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>From geopolitical hedging to inflation concerns, market logic has begun to change?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFrom geopolitical hedging to inflation concerns, market logic has begun to change?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012212489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金点睛 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-09 10:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>At the beginning of the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down in volatile trading for two consecutive trading days. In contrast, commodities generally rose sharply. Why does the market react like this and what is it trading? What will happen in the future? At the beginning of this week, the global market was in violent turmoil again. On Monday, major markets in Asia-Pacific, U.S. stocks and Europe generally fell sharply, and the Chinese market was also affected. Hong Kong stocks even hit a new low since the epidemic, and continued their decline on Tuesday. In contrast, commodities generally rose sharply. Brent oil prices once approached US $140/barrel, a new high since 2008, WTI crude oil also approached US $125/barrel, wheat continued to rise by 7%, and LME nickel rose by as much as 74%. Under the interweaving of risk aversion and inflation sentiment, we see that the US Dollar Index continues to strengthen to 99, gold impacts rise to $2,000 per ounce, and US Treasury yields remains flat and rises slightly, but it is mainly driven by inflation expectations (10-year Breakeven hit a new high of 2.85%, TIPS real interest rates fell to a low of-1.07%).</p><p><b>Chart 1: Since the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, in terms of US dollar pricing, wheat, crude oil, and VIX bulls have led the gains among major global asset classes, while Russian stocks have led the decline</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f5858bc8a65a21b378d371eddddf4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 2: Since the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, commodities have generally risen, with crude oil, wheat and LME nickel rising sharply</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a39be9f88bd492786a8d094dcacda6e9\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 3: US Treasury yields was flat and slightly higher, but mainly driven by inflation expectations (10-year Breakeven hit a new high of 2.85%, while TIPS real interest rate fell to a low of-1.07%)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ac999b8c0d1b983d3b5cb2a0b9d6f1\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>1. Why does the market react like this and what is it trading?</b></p><p><b>The main reason is that the trading logic has changed, from risk aversion at the beginning to stagflation with fears of inflation or even weakening growth.</b></p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than ten days and continues to ferment, but its impact is gradually becoming clear. In a series of recent analyses on the situation in Russia and Ukraine (\"The Asset Implications of the Situation in Russia and Ukraine Superimposed on the Dislocation of Sino-US Policies\", \"The Impact Path and Transmission Logic of the Situation in Russia and Ukraine\"), we have sorted out the impact logic of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, mainly There are four levels:</p><p><b>1. The first is risk appetite and risk aversion.</b>However, if the impact is limited to this level, then it is not enough to worry about, or even enough to do too many positions. The historical experience of previous geopolitical conflicts has verified this point many times (\"How do geopolitical risks affect asset prices?\");</p><p><b>Chart 4: Performance of major global markets and asset prices before and after typical local wars in the past 20 years</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/745e7b8a67c841a4d226937579daf8c2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>2. The second layer is the disturbance of the supply chain. Geopolitical conflicts are essentially a supply shock first and foremost, either short or long.</b>Due to the characteristics of the geo-economic and industrial structure of Russia and Ukraine involved in this conflict, its disturbances are more concentrated on major resource products, such as crude oil, natural gas and agricultural products (wheat, corn); In terms of regions, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and some emerging markets (fertilizers, agricultural products) account for a relatively high proportion (for details, please see the analysis in \"How much impact does the Russia-Ukraine situation have on the global supply chain?\");</p><p>What happens this time is that the supply shock that has been continuously disturbed due to factors such as the epidemic and extreme weather has not completely subsided, and inflation in developed markets is already at a high level.<b>Short-term supply shocks exacerbate this contradiction,</b>Naturally, it has increased the market's concerns about future price pressures, tightening expectations, and even recession expectations (for example, the 2s10s spread has narrowed to about 20bp, which is the narrowest before the opening of all previous rate hike).</p><p><b>Chart 5: Russia's export structure (OEC caliber, data as of the end of 2021)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc8b35ebb2f8a5cbc5158f4bf9e5508\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: OEC, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 6: The proportion of Russian intermediate products imported by major countries under the OECD TiVA caliber in the country's total intermediate products imported by the country</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341c3a386c21e6f2766189ffc1dcf34a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 7: The 2s10s spread has narrowed to about 20bp, which is the narrowest before the rate hike started</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f814593fd0fe9b509a48a67156af3eb\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 8: Due to the characteristics of the geo-economic and industrial structure of Russia and Ukraine involved in the conflict, the disturbances are more concentrated on major resource products, such as crude oil, natural gas and agricultural products (wheat, corn), etc.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b6e061cb2bdb44d852f857c73938484\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>3. The third layer is the disturbance of financial markets and global liquidity.</b>Judging from the current scale of Russia's external liabilities, the scale of foreign currency denomination and the coverage of foreign exchange reserves, and the exposure of other financial institutions to Russian bonds, the scale is relatively small, and the direct impact is relatively controllable. Therefore, in the face of existing sanctions (such as major banks restricting overseas US dollar financing and transactions, restricting the central bank's use of overseas foreign exchange reserves, and removing seven banks from SWIFT system, etc.), it is currently affected.</p><p>However, if the situation escalates further, for example, Russia is forced to sell its overseas assets (as of the third quarter of 2021, the scale of overseas portfolio investments held is US $302 billion, of which US $218 billion is equity investments; from the perspective of foreign reserves and Russian sovereign funds, the proportion of Chinese assets held is about 13% and 20%), or actively and passively defaults on its sovereign debt (as of 4Q21, external liabilities are US $478.2 billion, foreign currency debt is US $413.1 billion, of which China's exposure is not large).<b>Only in this case can we expect to stop the short-term Fed rate hike.</b></p><p>Judging from the information available at present, this risk is still relatively controllable, but we have also observed that the EUR/JPY cross-swap, which measures the global dollar liquidity, the FRA-OIS, which measures the liquidity of the domestic financial system in the United States, and the credit spread of corporate financing conditions all show signs of rising, which deserves close attention.</p><p><b>Chart 9: Since mid-February, the FRA-OIS spread has risen rapidly, currently rising to 37.2 bp, higher than the average level since 2008</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b6153db61a3d1225871a941afffb60\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 10: Recently, the poor swap of major exchange rates against the US dollar has also increased significantly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b24390d4686d860a80b75c0f9a888143\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 11: U.S. high-yield bond and investment-grade credit spreads have also risen significantly recently</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476ac3526e425339299ff9891abaaac4\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 12: As of 3Q21, the amount of debt claims against Russia by banking industries in various countries mainly comes from French, Austrian and Italian banks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1bfd82c07f37556f7b35fd7d5e0d87a\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 13: As of 4Q21, the overall foreign currency-denominated liabilities of various sectors in Russia accounted for about 24% of GDP, of which the non-financial corporate sector accounted for about 18%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c2bda4bd6696c17b9cd41b5b8dba3a\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: IIF, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 14: As of the third quarter of 2021, the scale of overseas portfolio investments held was US $302 billion, of which US $218 billion was equity investment</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d18b7f21cb14cacdbb9f4b0b5af8225\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 15: The proportion of US dollars in the Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange and gold reserves has dropped significantly, from 46% at the end of 2017 to 16% at the end of June 2021</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff2cb86b2f21ca529b2d781e53d23f4\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 16: Since 2021, Russian sovereign funds have gradually increased RMB assets; U.S. dollar assets held after June 2021 have been cleared</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8431f564e65914430491ceeacde23ad\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>4. As a drag on trade and global growth,</b>It is a relatively more medium-term change, and at the same time it has a greater impact on Europe.</p><p>At present, the impact of the first level has already appeared, the impact of the second level is the most obvious and still fermenting, and the impact of the third level has not yet become dominant and deserves attention. It is not difficult to explain the reasons for recent market fluctuations. Risk aversion and inflation and even stagflation concerns intertwine to affect market trends.</p><p><b>2. Possible subsequent evolution: factual supply shocks have been caused, but more importantly, the path of \"far-end\" inflation and rate hike</b></p><p>For the second level, which is also the most dominant supply chain disturbance at present,<b>What we know and are certain is that the factual shock has been caused, for whatever reason</b>(Port blockade or poor transportation, spontaneous reduction, or due to the decline in financial information transmission efficiency), the corresponding impact has also been caused (for example, we estimate that if the current oil price is included, the inflection point of inflation will be delayed than if the rising oil price is not included). It appears one month later; if the oil price climbs to US $150/barrel in the next three months, the inflection point will be delayed by two months).</p><p><b>Chart 17: We estimate that if the current oil price is included, the inflection point of inflation will appear one month later than if the rising oil price is not included; If oil prices climb to US $150/barrel in the next three months, the inflection point will be delayed by two months</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c8804b7b1477338398b4447120bf0dc\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>But what is more important is whether the impact is an instantaneous upward rush, or whether it will continue to remain high or even go up further, which is even more important for the \"far-end\" inflation path and monetary policy path.</b>After all, without the sharp rise in oil prices and other commodities caused by this conflict, inflation and supply contradictions in the United States are expected to gradually improve (the fall in non-agricultural wages in February illustrates this point, \"Looking at the improvement of the epidemic from the perspective of non-agricultural and supply chains\" Effect \"), and the market's expectations for\" near-end \"rate hike have been fully taken into account.</p><p><b>Chart 18: The current CME interest rate futures imply 1.0 rate hike in March, 2.8 rate hike in June, and 4.9 rate hike in December</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb69b0acaceb4ae875cd5950ea8c40b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>The subsequent trend of this path is highly dependent on the subsequent sanctions and the progress of the situation, especially the trend of short-term extreme values.</b>At present, there are certain differences between Europe and the United States on whether to sanction Russian energy exports, which is related to different dependence on it (for example, Russia only accounts for about 8% of U.S. crude oil imports, while Europe is more dependent, especially natural gas). Without sanctions, it would be difficult to maintain commodity prices, which have nearly reached highs. If Europe and the United States really take strict sanctions, it will lead to a huge shortage of Russia's export volume of about 7 million barrels in the short term. Although according to the estimation of our bulk group, the supply of all parties can fill this \"hole\" (OPEC's production space is 3 million barrels, the remaining production capacity is about 2 million barrels, Iran's 1-1.5 million barrels, and shale oil is estimated to be 2 million barrels), but it may still be difficult to avoid the previous premium, let alone emotional disturbance.</p><p><b>Chart 23: Corn export structure and Ukrainian corn export destinations (data as of the end of 2019)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb287c840c443231d373e97943aa18db\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: OEC, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 24: Export structure of rapeseed oil and export destinations of Ukrainian rapeseed oil (data as of the end of 2019)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28deabc21b9f407f4aafa70277acbe3b\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: OEC, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 19: Europe and the United States imposed two rounds of sanctions on Iran's crude oil exports in 2012 and 2018. Iran's crude oil exports plummeted by 42.2% in 2013 and 64.8% in 2019.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd2ba30edb7af7368f598d927a9d05f\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: wind, CICC Research</p><p><b>3. What to observe next? Sanctions, rate hike Pathways, Term Spreads, Liquidity Indicators</b></p><p>Therefore, next, we think we need to focus on observing the following factors:</p><p><b>1) Sanctions progress:</b>The geopolitical situation, especially the trend of energy sanctions, remains the most important determinant in the short term.</p><p><b>2) March FOMC:</b>In the coming March, the FOMC will give the follow-up monetary policy path (such as the rate hike level of shrinking balance sheet and dot plot). Judging from the current situation,<b>The \"near-end\" operation will still be step by step rate hike</b>(Employment is good and inflation is still high; the market expects a high certainty of rate hike of 25bp in March), but<b>The \"far\" rate hike path has variables.</b>If the situation in Russia and Ukraine can easily soon and the price impact is relatively \"instantaneous\", then the general direction of improvement in inflationary pressure can still be expected; If this impact is further solidified, the rise in the expectation of \"far-end\" rate hike and the impact on interest rates and market valuations also need to be revised upward again.</p><p><b>3) Term spread,</b>As the current risk aversion and even stagflation worries are intertwined, the long-term and short-term interest rate spreads narrow too rapidly (currently only 20bp), the Fed may need to push up the long-term interest rate through shrinking balance sheet to avoid excessive inversion (\"If the Fed makes a rate hike of 50bp\"), but if inflation continues to be high or even far-end inflation is longer and larger than expected, then the negative effects caused by \"curve inversion\" may gradually appear.</p><p><b>Chart 20: Due to the current interweaving of risk aversion and even stagflation concerns, the long-term and short-term interest rate spreads have narrowed too rapidly (currently only 20bp), so the Federal Reserve may need to use shrinking balance sheet to push up long-term interest rates to avoid too fast inversion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbe346aee3106ba78c227aaecccfe496\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>4) Changes in liquidity indicators,</b>Whether there are signs of contagion of liquidity risk.</p><p><b>4. Market impact? Short-term twists and turns but oversold, bulk may still have support; If it is upgraded, midstream and downstream and banks will be damaged</b></p><p><b>In this context, the market does not rule out the pressure of twists and turns until the situation becomes clear.</b>Especially Europe, which is highly exposed to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and some emerging markets with poor ability to resist risks.<b>But at present, major markets are also obviously oversold.</b>Such as Hong Kong stocks, European and emerging stocks. On the contrary, commodities are also obviously overbought, such as gold and oil, and their trend is highly dependent on the geopolitical situation, so there may be support at high levels, but we are not fully sure of further sharp upward movement from the current high.</p><p><b>If the situation escalates further,</b>Midstream and downstream sectors and U.S. stock banks may be damaged due to rising costs and flattening interest rate spreads. On the contrary, the concept of price increases (energy and agricultural products), risk aversion (such as high Dividend) and steady growth may be more sensitive to hedging.</p><p><b>Chart 21: The current S&P 500 is close to oversold</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ce54a19f70a022568c353cf5887ff5\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart 22: Current Brent oil is seriously overbought</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aca2a064acda3e32120583926f5cd3ea\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数",".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSCCI":"红筹指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186846683","content_text":"在本周伊始，美国三大主要股指连续两个交易日在震荡交投中收跌，相比之下，大宗商品普遍大涨。市场为何会有此反应，在交易什么？后续会有何演变？本周初全球市场再度剧烈动荡，周一亚太、美股和欧洲主要市场普遍大跌，中国市场也因此受到波及，港股甚至已经创出疫情以来新低，周二也延续跌势。相比之下，大宗商品普遍大涨。布伦特油价一度逼近140美元/桶，为2008年以来新高，WTI原油也逼近125美元/桶，小麦继续大涨7%，LME镍涨幅更是高达74%。在避险与通胀情绪交织下，我们看到美元指数继续走强至99，黄金冲击冲高2000美元/盎司，美债利率持平微升，但主要受通胀预期推动（10年Breakeven创2.85%的新高，TIPS实际利率则跌至-1.07%的低位）。图表1：俄乌局势升级以来，美元计价下，全球大类资产中小麦、原油、VIX多头领涨，俄罗斯股汇领跌资料来源：Bloomberg，Factset，中金公司研究部图表2：俄乌局势升级以来，大宗商品普遍上涨，原油、小麦以及LME镍大涨资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表3：美债利率持平微升，但主要受通胀预期推动（10年Breakeven创2.85%的新高，TIPS实际利率则跌至-1.07%的低位）资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部一、市场为何会有此反应，在交易什么？主要的原因是交易逻辑已经发生变化，从一开始的避险到担心通胀甚至增长趋弱的滞胀。俄乌局势到目前已经持续了十几天时间，还在继续发酵，但其影响脉络也逐渐清晰。我们在近期有关俄乌局势的一系列分析中（《俄乌局势叠加中美政策错位的资产含义》、《俄乌局势的影响路径与传导逻辑》），梳理了俄乌局势的影响逻辑，主要有四个层面：1.  第一是风险偏好和避险情绪。但如果影响只局限在这一层次，那么就不足为虑，甚至不足以作为做太多的调仓的操作，之前历次地缘冲突的历史经验已经多次验证这一点（《地缘风险如何影响资产价格？》）；图表4：过去20年以来较为典型的局部战争前后全球主要市场和资产价格表现资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部2. 第二层是对于供应链的扰动。地缘冲突从本质上首先都是一个供应冲击，或短或长。此次由于冲突所涉及的俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘经济和产业结构的特点，其扰动更多集中在主要的资源品上，原油、天然气和农产品（小麦、玉米）等；分地区看对东欧、中东、一部分新兴市场（化肥、农行品）的占比较高（详情请见《俄乌局势对全球供应链影响有多大？》中的分析）；而此次恰巧的是，原本因为疫情和极端天气等因素持续扰动的供应冲击还未完全消退、发达市场通胀本已处于高位的背景下，短期的供应冲击加大了这一矛盾，也自然就加大了市场对于未来价格压力、紧缩预期、甚至衰退预期的担忧（如2s10s利差已经缩窄到20bp左右，是历次加息开启前最窄的一次）。图表5：俄罗斯出口结构（OEC口径，数据截止2021年末）资料来源：OEC，中金公司研究部图表6：OECD TiVA口径下各主要国家进口俄罗斯中间品（intermediate products）占该国进口全部中间品比例资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部图表7：2s10s利差已经缩窄到20bp左右，是历次加息开启前最窄的一次资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表8：此次由于冲突所涉及的俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘经济和产业结构的特点，其扰动更多集中在主要的资源品上，原油、天然气和农产品（小麦、玉米）等资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部3. 第三层是对金融市场和全球流通性的扰动。从目前俄罗斯对外负债规模、以及外币计价规模和外汇储备的覆盖度、以及其他金融机构对俄罗斯债券的敞口来看，规模都相对较小，直接的冲击也相对可控，因此在面对已有的制裁（如主要银行限制海外美元融资和交易、限制央行动用海外存留的外汇储备、以及将7家银行剔除出SWIFT系统等），目前看影响更多集中在俄罗斯境内的金融资产，例如股债汇三杀，央行提高基准利率到20%、并限制对外付息和资本管制等等[1]。但如果局势进一步升级，例如发生俄罗斯被迫抛售持有海外资产（截至2021年三季度持有海外组合投资规模3020亿美元、其中2180亿美元为股权投资；从外储和俄罗斯主权基金口径看，持有中国资产的比例约为13%和20%），又或者主动被动违约其主权债务（截止4Q21，对外负债4782亿美元，外币债4131亿美元，其中中国所持有的敞口都不大），而倘若这时候又恰好遇到一些金融机构未对冲的衍生品敞口过大、以及对于其他金融体系的敞口过大，那么潜在的流动性冲击就会形成，类似于1998年的俄罗斯主权债务违约导致LTCM破产的事件；也只有在这种情况下，我们预计会停止短期美联储加息的脚步。从目前掌握的信息来看，这一风险依然相对可控，但我们也观察到衡量全球美元流动性的欧元/日元交叉互换、美国国内金融体系流动性的FRA-OIS、以及企业融资条件的信用利差都有走高迹象，值得密切关注。图表9：2月中旬以来，FRA-OIS利差快速抬升，当前抬升至37.2bp，高于2008年以来均值水平资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表10：近期主要汇率兑美元的较差互换同样抬升明显资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表11：近期美国高收益债及投资级信用利差同样攀升明显资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表12：截至3Q21，各国银行业对俄罗斯的债务索偿金额主要来自法国、奥地利和意大利银行资料来源：haver，中金公司研究部图表13：截至4Q21，俄罗斯各部门整体外币计价负债占GDP比例约24%，其中非金融企业部门约18%资料来源：IIF，中金公司研究部图表14：截至2021年三季度持有海外组合投资规模3020亿美元、其中2180亿美元为股权投资资料来源：haver，中金公司研究部图表15：俄央行外汇及黄金储备中美元占比回落明显，从2017年末的46%降至2021年6月末的16%资料来源：haver，中金公司研究部图表16：2021年以来俄罗斯主权基金开始逐渐加持人民币资产；2021年6月后持有美元资产已清零资料来源：haver，中金公司研究部4. 对于贸易和全球增长的拖累，是相对更为中期的变化，同时对欧洲的影响更大。目前来看，第一层面的影响已经出现、第二层面影响最为显性且仍在发酵、第三个层面的影响尚未成为主导值得关注，这也就不难解释近期市场波动的原因，避险和通胀甚至滞胀担忧交织影响市场走势。二、后续可能演变：事实性的供应冲击已经造成，但更重要的是“远端”通胀和加息路径对于第二层面也是当前最为显性的供应链扰动，我们已知且确定的是，事实性的冲击都已经造成，不论因为何种原因（港口封锁或运输不畅、自发的减少、还是因为金融信息传递效率的下降），相应的影响也已经造成（例如我们测算如若计入当前油价后，通胀拐点较不计入油价攀升情况下延后1个月出现；如若油价在未来3个月攀升至150美元/桶，拐点延后2个月）。图表17：我们测算如若计入当前油价后，通胀拐点较不计入油价攀升情况下延后1个月出现；如若油价在未来3个月攀升至150美元/桶，拐点延后2个月资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部但更重要是影响究竟是瞬时的上冲、还是会持续维持高位甚至进一步上行，对于“远端”的通胀路径和货币政策路径更加重要。毕竟如果没有这次冲突导致的油价等大宗商品大涨，美国的通胀和供应矛盾是有望逐步改善的（2月非农薪资回落就说明了这一点，《从非农和供应链看疫情改善的效果》）、而且市场对于“近端”的加息预期计入也已经比较充分。图表18：当前CME利率期货隐含3月加息次数1.0次、6月加息次数2.8次、12月加息次数4.9次资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部而后续这一路径的走势又高度取决于接下来制裁和局势的进展，特别是短期极端值的走势。目前欧美在是否制裁俄罗斯能源出口上存在一定分歧，这与对其依赖度不同有关（例如美国原油进口中俄罗斯只占到8%左右，而欧洲的依赖度更高，特别是天然气）。如果不制裁，目前已近冲到高位的大宗商品价格很难维持。如果欧美果真采取严格的制裁措施，短期导致俄罗斯大约700万桶的出口量出现巨大短缺，虽然根据我们大宗组的估算各方的供应可以填补这个“窟窿”（OPEC产量空间300万桶，剩余产能200万桶左右，伊朗100-150万桶，页岩油估算200万桶），但是在能够有效填补之前的溢价上冲可能还是难以避免，更不用说情绪的扰动。图表23：玉米的出口结构，以及乌克兰玉米的出口目的地（数据截止2019年末）资料来源：OEC，中金公司研究部图表24：菜籽油的出口结构，以及乌克兰菜籽油的出口目的地（数据截止2019年末）资料来源：OEC，中金公司研究部图表19：欧美于2012及2018年对伊朗原油出口进行了两轮制裁，2013年伊朗原油出口量骤降42.2%，2019年骤降64.8%资料来源：wind，中金公司研究部三、接下来观察什么？制裁、加息路径、期限利差、流动性指标因此接下来，我们认为重点需要观察以下几个因素，1）制裁进展：地缘局势特别是能源制裁的动向依然是短期最重要的决定因素。2）3月FOMC：即将临近的3月FOMC给出后续货币政策路径（如缩表、点阵图的加息水平）。从目前局势看，“近端”操作上依然会按部就班加息（就业好、通胀依然高；市场预期3月加息25bp确定性较高），但“远端”加息路径有变数。如果俄乌局势能很快缓解使得价格影响较为“瞬时”，那么通胀压力改善的大方向仍可期待；而如果这一冲击进一步固化，“远端”加息预期的抬升和对利率与市场估值的冲击也需要再度上修。3）期限利差，由于当前避险甚至滞胀担忧交织导致长短端期限利差过快速收窄（目前已经仅20bp），因此美联储可能会需要通过缩表来推动长端利率上行以避免过快倒挂（《如果美联储一次加息50bp》），但是如果通胀持续高企甚至远端通胀比预期的要高得更久更大，那么“曲线倒挂”引发的衰退预期、货币政策两难、企业利润侵蚀、银行板块利润受损等负面影响都可能逐步显现。图表20：由于当前避险甚至滞胀担忧交织导致长短端期限利差过快速收窄（目前已经仅20bp），因此美联储可能会需要通过缩表来推动长端利率上行以避免过快倒挂资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部4）流动性指标的变化，是否存在流动性风险蔓延的迹象。四、市场影响？短期波折但已超卖，大宗可能仍有支撑；如果升级，中下游和银行受损在这一背景下，市场不排除会承受波折压力直到情形明朗，尤其是对俄乌局势敞口大的欧洲和部分抵御风险能力差的新兴市场。但目前主要市场也已经明显超卖，如港股、欧洲及新兴。相反，大宗商品也明显超买，如黄金和石油，而且其走势还高度依赖地缘局势，因此有可能在高位有支撑，但我们对于从当前高点进一步大幅向上并没有充足把握。如果局势进一步升级，中下游板块和美股银行因为成本抬升和利差走平可能受损，而相反涨价概念（能源和农产品）、避险（如高股息）和稳增长发力对冲或更敏感。图表21：当前标普500已接近超卖资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表22：当前布油已严重超买资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031127313,"gmtCreate":1646480164779,"gmtModify":1676534133653,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031127313","repostId":"2217466981","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2217466981","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"1045836040","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1124f95a0404a8e98c2342c3c9c0de5"},"pubTimestamp":1646439781,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2217466981?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-05 08:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Duan Yongping is not alone! These two major overseas Chinese stock funds also \"bargain-hunting\" Tencent","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2217466981","media":"中国基金报","summary":"根据最新信息，海外第三大和第四大中国股票基金同步于1月大举加仓腾讯控股。近期海外中国股票基金陆续披露一月底持仓情况，外资巨头的中国投资动向浮出水面。截至2021年底，它是全球最大的中国股票基金，自然也是海外最大的中国股票基金。","content":"<p><div>On March 4, Tencent Holdings once approached HK $400 in intraday trading. As of the close, Tencent's stock price was HK $402.3, down 3.7%, and its market value was less than HK $4 trillion. A few days ago, Duan Yongping, an investment tycoon, once again went out to buy Tencent. Coincidentally, according to the latest information, the third and fourth largest overseas Chinese stock funds simultaneously increased their positions in Tencent Holdings in January. A few days ago, Duan Yongping, an investment tycoon, once again went out to buy Tencent. Duan Yongping spoke again on the 28th Beijing time: \"Tencent is lower than the price I bought last time, so buy some tomorrow.\" Later, he even exposed his order record in the comment area, throwing...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Duan Yongping is not alone! These two major overseas Chinese stock funds also \"bargain-hunting\" Tencent</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDuan Yongping is not alone! These two major overseas Chinese stock funds also \"bargain-hunting\" Tencent\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1045836040\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1124f95a0404a8e98c2342c3c9c0de5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中国基金报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-05 08:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On March 4, Tencent Holdings once approached HK $400 in intraday trading. As of the close, Tencent's stock price was HK $402.3, down 3.7%, and its market value was less than HK $4 trillion. A few days ago, Duan Yongping, an investment tycoon, once again went out to buy Tencent. Coincidentally, according to the latest information, the third and fourth largest overseas Chinese stock funds simultaneously increased their positions in Tencent Holdings in January. A few days ago, Duan Yongping, an investment tycoon, once again went out to buy Tencent. Duan Yongping spoke again on the 28th Beijing time: \"Tencent is lower than the price I bought last time, so buy some tomorrow.\" Later, he even exposed his order record in the comment area, throwing...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2217466981","content_text":"3月4日，腾讯控股盘中一度逼近400港元。截至收盘时，腾讯股价402.3港元，跌3.7％，市值已经不到4万亿港元。几天前，投资大佬段永平再度出手抄底腾讯。无独有偶，根据最新信息，海外第三大和第四大中国股票基金同步于1月大举加仓腾讯控股。几天前，投资大佬段永平再度出手抄底腾讯。段永平于北京时间28日再度发声：“腾讯低过我上次买的价钱了，那明天再买点。”随后，他更是在评论区晒出自己的下单记录，豪掷500多万美元，继去年8月“抄底”腾讯之后，段永平再度抄底。来源：微博无独有偶。根据最新信息，海外第三大和第四大中国股票基金同步于1月大举加仓腾讯控股。首先来看，海外第三大中国股票基金。海外第三大中国股票基金为瑞银旗下的瑞银（卢森堡）中国精选股票基金（UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - China Opportunity (USD) ），基金最新规模73亿美元。来源：晨星这只基金由海外投资名将施斌领衔管理。1月组合出现比较明显的变化。基金大手笔加仓第一大重仓股腾讯，加仓幅度100%。前十大重仓股中，基金小幅减仓了招商银行和港交所，也较为显著地减持了中国平安。截至1月底，基金的前十大重仓股为腾讯控股、贵州茅台、网易、招商银行、中国平安、港交所、石药集团、阿里巴巴、平安银行、AIA集团等。海外第四大中国股票基金也来自摩根资管旗下为JPMorgan Funds - China Fund A ，它的最新规模为60亿美元。1月，它与海外第三大中国股票基金“神同步”，加仓了腾讯控股，加仓幅度也是100%。腾讯控股外，它还加仓了，美团、药明生物技术、网易、中国平安。1月基金对阿里巴巴和碧桂园进行了减持。来源：晨星买方之外，卖方也积极唱多。例如，中金发表研究报告指，腾讯旗下财付通宣布进一步降低小微商户支付服务费，自2021年9月1日起至2024年9月30日，为符合标准的小微商户提供九折降费优惠措施。 中金估算，腾讯2021年支付业务达1,200至1,300亿元人民币，降费整体影响有限，又指腾讯向来更注重提升用户体验及业务规模，利润则为较次要考量，认为本次降费彰显其社会责任，并与金融业务一贯战略相符。该行维持对腾讯2021至2023年收入及盈利预测及“中性”评级，目标价527港元不变。近期海外中国股票基金陆续披露一月底持仓情况，外资巨头的中国投资动向浮出水面。全球最大中国股票基金再减持“宁王”日前，全球最大中国股票基金-安联神州A股基金日前公布了1月的持仓变动情况。1月安联神州A股基金减持宁德时代10.56%，减持东方财富14.78%，减持恩捷股份12.23%。安联神州A股基金增持了中信证券、招商银行、汾酒集团、五粮液、美的集团、迈瑞医疗。安联神州A股基金是欧洲资管巨头安联投资于境外发行的中国股票策略产品，最新规模97.83亿欧元。截至2021年底，它是全球最大的中国股票基金，自然也是海外最大的中国股票基金。截至2021年底，基金的前十大重仓股为宁德时代、中信证券、招商银行、汾酒股份、五粮液、东方财富、美的集团、锦江酒店、恩捷股份、迈瑞医疗。其中宁德时代是安联神州A股基金的第一大重仓股，而安联神州A股基金也是全球持有宁德时代最多的基金之一。安联神州A股基金在面向特定市场投资者的信披材料中写道：目前中国的情况和2018年类似。2018年政府采取行动应对结构性的问题，例如影子银行的杠杆问题。严监管下，经济增长放缓。股票市场出现显著调增。调整之后，股票市场回暖。类似的，政府这次的政策也有所调整。这种调整对股票市场的估值是有利的。预计宏观环境会趋向稳定，改善经济活动的势头。一月组合操作主要体现在两方面：买入那些原本就看好，但是最近重新变得有吸引力的股票。同时，增加哪些受益于财政政策扩张的公司。截至一月末，最显著的高配行业为可选消费，最显著的低配行业是传媒。来源：晨星海外第二大中国股票基金减持宁德时代无独有偶海外第二大中国股票基金也于同期减持了宁德时代。1月，摩根资管旗下的，“JPMorgan Funds - China A-Share Opportunities Fund “ 也小幅减持了宁德时代，减持幅度为1.99%。宁德时代之外，基金还减持了五粮液和美的集团，减持幅度分别为1.28%和8.26%。前十大重仓股中，基金1月增持了通威股份。截至1月末，基金前十大重仓股为宁德时代、五粮液、招商银行、中国平安、通威股份、美的集团、保利发展、万华化学、宁波银行。这只基金最新规模为450亿元人民币，为海外第二大中国股票基金。来源：晨星海外第五大中国股票基金大幅加仓顺丰控股海外第五大中国股票基金“Schroder International Selection Fund China A”，施罗德国际精选股票基金中国A股，最新规模51亿美元。来源：晨星1月，基金大幅加仓顺丰控股，加仓幅度82.18%。同期，基金减仓宏发股份16.5%。1月基金对中国平安、招商银行、贵州茅台、恒瑞医疗、中国巨石都进行了小幅的加仓。海外第六大中国股票基金增持贵州茅台海外规模第6大中国股票基金，富达国际旗下的富达基金-中国消费新动力“Fidelity Funds - China Consumer Fund”，一月小幅减持了腾讯控股，增持了李宁和AIA集团和贵州茅台。来源：晨星海外第7大中国股票基金减持宁德时代海外第7大中国股票基金，来自欧洲资管巨头安本投资旗下的Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - China A Share Equity Fund。基金1月对前十大重仓股的每一只股票都进行了减持。其中减持中国中免6.96%，减持贵州茅台4.29%，减持宁德时代0.06%，减持迈瑞医疗9.44%，减持美的集团10.45%，减持隆基股份8.84%。来源：晨星大摩：中国股票中更看好A股近期在不确定性攀升的外围环境下，外资机构也在建立投资者保持耐心，并表达了对A股的积极看法。大摩3月3日发布研究报告表示，近期地缘政治风险下，A股的投资者情绪受到影响。不过，大摩预计中国会推出更多的财政刺激政策。该投行建议投资者保持耐心，等待一个更好的买点。在中国股票内部（A股、港股或海外上市ADR）中，它表示更看好A股。因为在全球不确定性攀升时，A股更容易享受政策放松的利好。同时，国内的投资者群体也较全球投资者更为稳定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039148753,"gmtCreate":1645975248353,"gmtModify":1676534078848,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039148753","repostId":"1110129778","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110129778","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645933055,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110129778?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-27 11:37","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the core business experiencing negative growth for the first time, or is Ali taking the initiative?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110129778","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"阿里虽无法如过去强劲高速增长，但有着清晰战略规划的阿里未来仍然可期。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Wang Yiyi</p><p>On the evening of February 24, Alibaba announced its financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2022 (October-December 2021): revenue was RMB 242.58 billion, YoY 10%; Operating profit is 7.07 billion yuan, YoY-86%; Adjusted EBITA is 44.82 billion yuan, YoY-27%; Non-GAAP net income 44.6 billion, YoY-25%.</p><p>Regarding this financial report, judging from the feedback and comments of the market, there are certain differences. The more pessimistic short side believes that it is less than expected: the domestic e-commerce revenue representing the basic market increased by only 7%, which contributed to Ali's main revenue and Profit's customer management recorded negative growth for the first time; At the same time, the growth rate of the cloud business, which has high hopes, is only 20%, which is not good compared with the growth rate of major competitors; The remaining business has not been able to take the lead so far, dragging down the overall profitability. The digital media business has made a one-time provision of 25.1 billion yuan in goodwill impairment this quarter; More optimistic parties have found more positive factors from financial reports and performance exchanges.</p><p><b>Wall Street Insights and Wisdom Research is still more optimistic and encouraging about Ali's future: under the peak of demographic dividend, the shift of China's economic growth, strong supervision and anti-monopoly, it is unrealistic to expect Ali's growth to be as strong as in the past; Ali is actively iterating and transforming itself. The answers to many questions about Ali and its future development path have been buried in the company's recent actions and this financial report and performance exchange meeting. Ali will still be one of the most noteworthy companies in China in the long run.</b></p><p><b>Customer management recorded negative growth for the first time, or the result of Ali's initiative</b></p><p>The market is still most concerned about the Chinese commercial part, which represents the fundamentals of Ali's e-commerce. This quarter, the customer management (advertising and commission) revenue, which contributed to Ali's main revenue and profit, was YoY-1%, recording negative growth for the first time; This is also the main concern of the empty side. It believes that the fierce competition in the e-commerce market has caused Ali to lose its dominant position in e-commerce, so it has to choose to give profits to merchants to survive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/502843b73ce140e9e1853b5788492667\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Indeed,<b>The management also admitted in the performance meeting that the intensified competition in the e-commerce market is a major reason restricting its own growth rate, and the company did take the initiative to reduce service charges, but it is still too early to judge that Ali's e-commerce business has sunset.</b></p><p>In Q4 of 2021, the year-on-year growth rates of domestic social retail sales from October to December were 4.9%, 3.9%, and 1.7% respectively. Under the general trend of economic downturn, Taobao e-commerce companies with large plates naturally cannot have a good situation.<b>Ali's e-commerce business cannot be seen outside China's macroeconomic trends</b>Most people in the market understand this, so they are not surprised that the GMV of Taobao and Tmall increased by single digit this quarter, but<b>For the lower-than-expected customer management growth rate turning negative, more people blame the fierce competition in the market, but ignore that its essence is the economy</b>: The GMV category that Taobao e-commerce contributes the most is a price-sensitive category such as clothing. In the past year, the consumer industry has generally faced the problems of rising costs and sluggish terminal demand. To \"guarantee profits\", e-commerce big data can partially support this view: Comparing the same period in 2020 and 2021, it can be found that the general trend is that sales will increase moderately in 2021, in which sales will decline, but the average price will increase significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d5464c7ee1be426afb1e842521546a2\" tg-width=\"1819\" tg-height=\"804\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: Tmall, JD.com and other online platforms, WIND</p><p><b>Jianzhi Research believes that one of Ali's moats is its network effect: when there are more merchants, the more SKUs, and the more consumers with various needs can be attracted, and the more consumers will feed back the increase in the number of merchants. Since the epidemic, the macroeconomic downturn and the increasingly high customer acquisition fees have brought great pressure to merchants. Therefore, Ali may take the initiative to make profits from the customer management business for the purpose of retaining customers. Fierce competition is not terrible. What is terrible is that competition is fierce when the stock economy and cake growth become very slow.</b></p><p><b>Clear strategic considerations revealed in the financial report:</b></p><p><b>Tmall's customer revenue is certainly worthy of attention, but the financial report disclosed some new highlights of e-commerce: As of December 31, 2021, the \"Taobao Special Edition\" Taote has 280 million active consumers (AAC), a month-on-month increase of 39 million, payment orders increased strongly by more than 100% year-on-year; At the same time, Taocaicai, a community e-commerce platform, continued to penetrate into underdeveloped areas, achieving a 30% month-on-month increase in GMV.</b></p><p>Many investors don't understand why Alibaba invests heavily in Taote and Taocaicai. After all, Taote faces competitors such as Pinduoduo and Jingxi, and it is not easy to break through; Community group buying and daily necessities are even more competitive and thankless work.<b>Jianzhi Research believes that Ali's investment in Taote and Taocaicai has a clear strategic consideration: Taote undertakes the important task of sinking the market to attract new talents, while Taocaicai belongs to \"near-field e-commerce\", helping Ali occupy the near-market market and establish a complete supply chain and logistics fulfillment network in the sinking market.</b></p><p><b>The company's strategic considerations were also clearly stated in the financial report and performance meeting:</b>\"Now the penetration rate of clothing and consumer electronics has reached 30%-40%, which is a relatively high level in the development of e-commerce; However, for fast-moving consumer goods, food, especially fresh products, the absolute market capacity is very large, because it is a rigid demand, and every family needs it. At the same time, the penetration rate of e-commerce is still relatively low. Diversified models, far-field, near-field and fulfillment systems must have a good integrated design to provide a good experience. Box Horse, RT Mart, Ele.me, Tmall Supermarket, Taocaicai, etc. are designed in layers, combining online and offline, and combining far-field and near-field. \"</p><p>Therefore, although community group buying and daily necessities are already fiercely competitive, Ali still must invest a lot of resources and energy to start and operate this part of the business, even if it currently incurs considerable losses. Of course, after the overall strategic direction is reasonable, it depends on whether Ali can successfully run and integrate various businesses and truly realize a diversified consumer business matrix. Of course, local life services are also an important and indispensable part of it.</p><p>Cainiao Logistics also has certain bright spots in the financial report. Although the revenue growth rate of offsetting cross-segment transactions (other than Ali) reported for the first time is only 15%, which is not high, 67% of this quarter's revenue comes from external customers, and the international logistics infrastructure has been further strengthened. This quarter, Cainiao International Logistics Network handled more than 5 million packages per day, and the number of Cainiao Yizhan in domestic rural areas has more than doubled year-on-year.</p><p><b>Ali's recent organizational structure and executive adjustments are actually actions in line with strategic development.</b>Starting from January 1 this year, Dai Shan will be in charge of the \"China Digital Business Sector\" consisting of Taobao (Tmall, Taobao, Alimama), B2C retail business group, Taocaicai, Taobao 1688 and other businesses. The boundaries of Taobao and Tmall have been broken. On the basis of dual-brand operation, the middle and back offices have been fully opened up, the consumer experience has been continuously optimized and various products and services throughout the life cycle are provided for merchants all over the world. Previously, Dai Shan served as the group's chief customer service officer, leading the group's customer service department from scratch. She is considered to be the person who Ali is most familiar with and values customers. At this time, in the domestic e-commerce market where competition is fierce and the ceiling of user increment is visible, Ali needs such a leader to lead the e-commerce business to a higher level in depth.</p><p>At the same time, Jiang Fan, who previously served as the president of Tmall and Taobao business groups, was appointed in charge of the \"overseas digital business sector\". As a key figure who once promoted Taobao's transformation from PC to mobile, Jiang Fan helped Ali build an indispensable general. This appointment also confirms that the overseas business mentioned by Zhang Yong in his internal letter will be the focus of future expansion.</p><p><b>At this point, Ali's strategy is completely clear: in the domestic market, traditional e-commerce is its foundation, and it should be expanded as much as possible on the basis of holding it, focusing on deepening and doing well; High-frequency scenarios with large market capacity and low penetration rate and near-field retail must enter, which is the increase of domestic commerce in the future; At the same time, we should do a good job in the continuous construction of logistics infrastructure to lay a solid foundation for the expansion of domestic and international business. At the same time, we should also do a good job in the construction of cloud computing, the underlying technology infrastructure, to help enterprises improve their efficiency, which not only contributes to the sustainable development of their own business systems, but also helps realize the society's expectations for Internet giants to exert their technology and technological innovation.</b></p><p>The only constant in the business world is the change itself. The era of Ali's high growth has at least temporarily ended. Although the road ahead is uncertain, for this business giant, it is worth encouraging to be able to aggressively iterate itself.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the core business experiencing negative growth for the first time, or is Ali taking the initiative?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the core business experiencing negative growth for the first time, or is Ali taking the initiative?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-27 11:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Wang Yiyi</p><p>On the evening of February 24, Alibaba announced its financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2022 (October-December 2021): revenue was RMB 242.58 billion, YoY 10%; Operating profit is 7.07 billion yuan, YoY-86%; Adjusted EBITA is 44.82 billion yuan, YoY-27%; Non-GAAP net income 44.6 billion, YoY-25%.</p><p>Regarding this financial report, judging from the feedback and comments of the market, there are certain differences. The more pessimistic short side believes that it is less than expected: the domestic e-commerce revenue representing the basic market increased by only 7%, which contributed to Ali's main revenue and Profit's customer management recorded negative growth for the first time; At the same time, the growth rate of the cloud business, which has high hopes, is only 20%, which is not good compared with the growth rate of major competitors; The remaining business has not been able to take the lead so far, dragging down the overall profitability. The digital media business has made a one-time provision of 25.1 billion yuan in goodwill impairment this quarter; More optimistic parties have found more positive factors from financial reports and performance exchanges.</p><p><b>Wall Street Insights and Wisdom Research is still more optimistic and encouraging about Ali's future: under the peak of demographic dividend, the shift of China's economic growth, strong supervision and anti-monopoly, it is unrealistic to expect Ali's growth to be as strong as in the past; Ali is actively iterating and transforming itself. The answers to many questions about Ali and its future development path have been buried in the company's recent actions and this financial report and performance exchange meeting. Ali will still be one of the most noteworthy companies in China in the long run.</b></p><p><b>Customer management recorded negative growth for the first time, or the result of Ali's initiative</b></p><p>The market is still most concerned about the Chinese commercial part, which represents the fundamentals of Ali's e-commerce. This quarter, the customer management (advertising and commission) revenue, which contributed to Ali's main revenue and profit, was YoY-1%, recording negative growth for the first time; This is also the main concern of the empty side. It believes that the fierce competition in the e-commerce market has caused Ali to lose its dominant position in e-commerce, so it has to choose to give profits to merchants to survive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/502843b73ce140e9e1853b5788492667\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Indeed,<b>The management also admitted in the performance meeting that the intensified competition in the e-commerce market is a major reason restricting its own growth rate, and the company did take the initiative to reduce service charges, but it is still too early to judge that Ali's e-commerce business has sunset.</b></p><p>In Q4 of 2021, the year-on-year growth rates of domestic social retail sales from October to December were 4.9%, 3.9%, and 1.7% respectively. Under the general trend of economic downturn, Taobao e-commerce companies with large plates naturally cannot have a good situation.<b>Ali's e-commerce business cannot be seen outside China's macroeconomic trends</b>Most people in the market understand this, so they are not surprised that the GMV of Taobao and Tmall increased by single digit this quarter, but<b>For the lower-than-expected customer management growth rate turning negative, more people blame the fierce competition in the market, but ignore that its essence is the economy</b>: The GMV category that Taobao e-commerce contributes the most is a price-sensitive category such as clothing. In the past year, the consumer industry has generally faced the problems of rising costs and sluggish terminal demand. To \"guarantee profits\", e-commerce big data can partially support this view: Comparing the same period in 2020 and 2021, it can be found that the general trend is that sales will increase moderately in 2021, in which sales will decline, but the average price will increase significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d5464c7ee1be426afb1e842521546a2\" tg-width=\"1819\" tg-height=\"804\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: Tmall, JD.com and other online platforms, WIND</p><p><b>Jianzhi Research believes that one of Ali's moats is its network effect: when there are more merchants, the more SKUs, and the more consumers with various needs can be attracted, and the more consumers will feed back the increase in the number of merchants. Since the epidemic, the macroeconomic downturn and the increasingly high customer acquisition fees have brought great pressure to merchants. Therefore, Ali may take the initiative to make profits from the customer management business for the purpose of retaining customers. Fierce competition is not terrible. What is terrible is that competition is fierce when the stock economy and cake growth become very slow.</b></p><p><b>Clear strategic considerations revealed in the financial report:</b></p><p><b>Tmall's customer revenue is certainly worthy of attention, but the financial report disclosed some new highlights of e-commerce: As of December 31, 2021, the \"Taobao Special Edition\" Taote has 280 million active consumers (AAC), a month-on-month increase of 39 million, payment orders increased strongly by more than 100% year-on-year; At the same time, Taocaicai, a community e-commerce platform, continued to penetrate into underdeveloped areas, achieving a 30% month-on-month increase in GMV.</b></p><p>Many investors don't understand why Alibaba invests heavily in Taote and Taocaicai. After all, Taote faces competitors such as Pinduoduo and Jingxi, and it is not easy to break through; Community group buying and daily necessities are even more competitive and thankless work.<b>Jianzhi Research believes that Ali's investment in Taote and Taocaicai has a clear strategic consideration: Taote undertakes the important task of sinking the market to attract new talents, while Taocaicai belongs to \"near-field e-commerce\", helping Ali occupy the near-market market and establish a complete supply chain and logistics fulfillment network in the sinking market.</b></p><p><b>The company's strategic considerations were also clearly stated in the financial report and performance meeting:</b>\"Now the penetration rate of clothing and consumer electronics has reached 30%-40%, which is a relatively high level in the development of e-commerce; However, for fast-moving consumer goods, food, especially fresh products, the absolute market capacity is very large, because it is a rigid demand, and every family needs it. At the same time, the penetration rate of e-commerce is still relatively low. Diversified models, far-field, near-field and fulfillment systems must have a good integrated design to provide a good experience. Box Horse, RT Mart, Ele.me, Tmall Supermarket, Taocaicai, etc. are designed in layers, combining online and offline, and combining far-field and near-field. \"</p><p>Therefore, although community group buying and daily necessities are already fiercely competitive, Ali still must invest a lot of resources and energy to start and operate this part of the business, even if it currently incurs considerable losses. Of course, after the overall strategic direction is reasonable, it depends on whether Ali can successfully run and integrate various businesses and truly realize a diversified consumer business matrix. Of course, local life services are also an important and indispensable part of it.</p><p>Cainiao Logistics also has certain bright spots in the financial report. Although the revenue growth rate of offsetting cross-segment transactions (other than Ali) reported for the first time is only 15%, which is not high, 67% of this quarter's revenue comes from external customers, and the international logistics infrastructure has been further strengthened. This quarter, Cainiao International Logistics Network handled more than 5 million packages per day, and the number of Cainiao Yizhan in domestic rural areas has more than doubled year-on-year.</p><p><b>Ali's recent organizational structure and executive adjustments are actually actions in line with strategic development.</b>Starting from January 1 this year, Dai Shan will be in charge of the \"China Digital Business Sector\" consisting of Taobao (Tmall, Taobao, Alimama), B2C retail business group, Taocaicai, Taobao 1688 and other businesses. The boundaries of Taobao and Tmall have been broken. On the basis of dual-brand operation, the middle and back offices have been fully opened up, the consumer experience has been continuously optimized and various products and services throughout the life cycle are provided for merchants all over the world. Previously, Dai Shan served as the group's chief customer service officer, leading the group's customer service department from scratch. She is considered to be the person who Ali is most familiar with and values customers. At this time, in the domestic e-commerce market where competition is fierce and the ceiling of user increment is visible, Ali needs such a leader to lead the e-commerce business to a higher level in depth.</p><p>At the same time, Jiang Fan, who previously served as the president of Tmall and Taobao business groups, was appointed in charge of the \"overseas digital business sector\". As a key figure who once promoted Taobao's transformation from PC to mobile, Jiang Fan helped Ali build an indispensable general. This appointment also confirms that the overseas business mentioned by Zhang Yong in his internal letter will be the focus of future expansion.</p><p><b>At this point, Ali's strategy is completely clear: in the domestic market, traditional e-commerce is its foundation, and it should be expanded as much as possible on the basis of holding it, focusing on deepening and doing well; High-frequency scenarios with large market capacity and low penetration rate and near-field retail must enter, which is the increase of domestic commerce in the future; At the same time, we should do a good job in the continuous construction of logistics infrastructure to lay a solid foundation for the expansion of domestic and international business. At the same time, we should also do a good job in the construction of cloud computing, the underlying technology infrastructure, to help enterprises improve their efficiency, which not only contributes to the sustainable development of their own business systems, but also helps realize the society's expectations for Internet giants to exert their technology and technological innovation.</b></p><p>The only constant in the business world is the change itself. The era of Ali's high growth has at least temporarily ended. Although the road ahead is uncertain, for this business giant, it is worth encouraging to be able to aggressively iterate itself.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652905\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652905","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1110129778","content_text":"作者：王奕懿2月24日晚间，阿里巴巴公布了2022财年第三季度（2021年10-12月）的财报：营收为RMB 2425.8亿元，YoY+10%；经营利润为70.7亿元，YoY-86%; 经调整EBITA为448.2亿元，YoY-27%; Non-GAAP净利润446亿，YoY-25%。对于该份财报，从市场的反馈和评论来看，是存在一定分歧的，较为悲观的空方认为是不及预期的：代表基本盘的国内电商收入增长仅7%，其中贡献阿里主要收入及利润的客户管理首次录得负增长；同时，被寄予厚望的云业务增速只有20%，比起主要竞争对手增速情况实在不算好；剩余的业务截至目前无法挑起大梁，拖累整体盈利能力，数字媒体业务本季度更是一次性计提251亿元商誉减值；较为乐观的多方则是从财报及业绩交流中找到了更多积极因素。华尔街见闻·见智研究对阿里的未来还是更多持偏乐观鼓励态度的：人口红利见顶、中国经济增速的换挡、强监管及反垄断下，再指望阿里的成长如过去那般强劲本身就是不现实的；阿里在积极迭代和自我蜕变，对于阿里许多质疑的答案及未来的发展路径已经埋藏在公司最近的动作及本次财报、业绩交流会中。阿里长远来看仍旧会是中国最值得关注的公司之一。客户管理首次录得负增长，或是阿里主动为之的结果市场最关心的仍旧是中国商业部分，代表了阿里电商基本盘。本季度，贡献阿里主要收入及利润的客户管理（广告和佣金）收入YoY-1%，首次录得负增长；这也是空方最主要的顾虑所在，认为电商市场的激烈竞争使得阿里已经失去了电商的主导地位，因此不得不选择给商家让利来求生存。确实，管理层也在业绩会中坦承了电商市场的竞争加剧是制约自身增速的一大原因，公司也确实主动降低了服务收费，但借此判断阿里的电商业务已经日落西山还为时尚早。2021年Q4，国内10-12月社零同比增速分别为4.9%、3.9%、1.7%，经济下行大趋势下盘子大的淘系电商自然也无法有好的情况，阿里电商业务是不能跳脱出中国宏观经济趋势去看的这点市场多数人都明白，因此对于本季度淘宝和天猫GMV是单位数增长并未感到意外，但对于低于预期的客户管理增速转负更多人是归咎于市场的激烈竞争，但忽略了其本质还是经济造成的：淘系电商贡献最多的GMV品类是服饰这种价格敏感型品类，过去一年消费业普遍面临成本上升，终端需求不振的问题，很多商家的运营模式从原先的“高周转低利润”转向了“保利润”，电商大数据可以部分佐证这一观点：对比2020年和2021年同期，可以发现大趋势是2021年销售额有适量增长，其中销量下滑，但均价提升幅度较大。数据来源：天猫、京东等各线上平台，WIND见智研究认为，阿里的一个护城河是其网络效应：当商家越多时，SKU越多，也越能吸引到有各种需求的消费者，消费者越多又反哺了商家数量的提升。疫情以来宏观经济的不景气叠加愈加高昂的获客费用给商家带来了极大的压力，因此阿里或出于留客目的主动对客户管理业务进行了让利。竞争激烈并不可怕，可怕的是在存量经济、蛋糕增长变得很慢的时候竞争激烈。财报透露着的清晰战略考量：天猫的客户收入固然值得留心，但财报中披露了一些电商的新亮点：截至2021年12月31日，“淘宝特价版”淘特拥有2.8亿度活跃消费者（AAC），环比增长3900万，支付订单量同比强劲增长超过100%；与此同时，社区电商平台淘菜菜则持续渗透到欠发达地区，实现GMV环比增长30%。许多投资者并不理解阿里为何要大手笔投入淘特和淘菜菜，毕竟淘特面对的竞争对手有拼多多、京喜，要突破并不容易；社区团购、日用品则更是竞争白热、吃力不讨好的辛苦活，见智研究认为阿里对于淘特和淘菜菜的投入是有着清晰战略层面的考量的：淘特承担者下沉市场拉新的重任，淘菜菜则属于“近场电商”，帮助阿里占据近场市场及在下沉市场建立完善供应链和物流履约网络。财报和业绩会议中也都明确表明了公司的战略考量：“现在服装和消费电子的渗透率已经达到30%-40%，属于电商发展中相对高的水平；但对于快消品、食品，特别是生鲜品，绝对市场容量非常大，因为是刚性需求，每个家庭都需要，同时电商渗透率还是相对较低的。模式多元化，远场、近场、履约系统必须有很好的集成设计才能提供良好的体验。盒马、大润发、饿了么、天猫超市、淘菜菜等，是有分层设计的，线上线下结合的，远场近场结合的。”因此，虽然社区团购、日用品已经竞争激烈，阿里还是必须投入极大的资源和精力来开启及运营这部分业务，就算目前产生相当亏损也在所不辞。当然，大的战略方向合理后就看阿里能否将各项业务顺利跑通及整合，真正实现一个多样化的消费者业务矩阵了。当然，本地生活服务也是其中重要不可或缺的组成部分。财报中菜鸟物流也有一定亮点，虽然首次汇报的抵消跨分部交易（阿里以外）的营收增速只有15%，并不高，但本季度67%的营收来自外部客户，且国际物流基建进一步加强，本季度菜鸟国际物流网日均处理包裹超过500万个，国内农村地区菜鸟驿站数量也同比增加了一倍多，物流基础设施的进一步完善会不断促进阿里在2021年投资者日提出的三大战略中的“内需消费”及“全球化”。阿里最近的组织架构及高管调整其实也是顺应战略发展的动作。今年1月1日起，戴珊负责分管由大淘宝（天猫、淘宝、阿里妈妈）、B2C零售事业群，淘菜菜、淘1688等业务组成的“中国数字商业板块”，淘宝、天猫的界限被打破，在双品牌运营基础上全面打通中后台，持续优化消费者体验及为全域商家提供全生命周期的各种产品服务。此前，戴珊曾任集团首席客户服务官，领导从零开始的集团客户服务部，被认为是阿里最熟悉和重视客户的人，此时在竞争激烈且用户增量可见天花板的国内电商市场，阿里正需要这样一位领导人来从深度上带领电商业务更上一层楼。与此同时，此前出任天猫、淘宝事业群总裁的蒋凡则被任命分管“海外数字商业板块”，作为曾经推动淘宝从PC到移动转型的关键人物，蒋凡是帮助阿里打下江山不可或缺的一名大将，这则任命也印证了张勇在内部信中提到的海外业务将是未来拓展的重点。至此，阿里的战略完全清晰：国内市场，传统电商是其基础盘，守住的基础上尽可能拓展，注重做深做好；市场容量大、渗透率低的高频场景、近场零售必须要进入，是未来国内商业的增量；同时，抓好物流的基础设施的持续建设来为国内及国际商业的拓展打好基础。同时，也抓好云计算这项底层科技基础设施的建设来帮助企业效率提高，不仅有助于自身业务体系的可持续发展，也能助力实现社会对于互联网巨头发挥技术与科技创新的期盼。商业世界中唯一不变的就只有变化本身，阿里高增的时代至少暂时落幕了，虽然前路未卜，但对于这个商业巨头而言，还能积极进取的迭代自己就已经是值得鼓励了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884780936,"gmtCreate":1631933604825,"gmtModify":1676530673043,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884780936","repostId":"2168278574","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2168278574","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631931605,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2168278574?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-18 10:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Xiaomi Home's business scope adds sales of pet food, education consulting, etc.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168278574","media":"金融界","summary":"来源：金融界网天眼查App显示，近日，小米之家科技有限公司发生工商变更，经营范围新增教育咨询服务（不含涉许可审批的教育培训活动）；销售宠物食品；组织文化艺术交流活动（不含营业性演出）等。小米之家科技有限公司成立于2017年1月，注册资本8000万人民币，雷军任执行董事，法定代表人为卢伟冰，由小米通讯技术有限公司全资持股。","content":"<p>The Tianyancha App shows that recently, Xiaomi Home Technology Co., Ltd. has undergone industrial and commercial changes, and its business scope has added educational consulting services (excluding education and training activities involving licensing approval); Sale of pet food; Organize cultural and artistic exchange activities (excluding commercial performances), etc.</p><p>Xiaomi Home Technology Co., Ltd. was established in January 2017 with a registered capital of 80 million yuan. Lei Jun is the executive director and the legal representative is Lu Weibing. It is wholly owned by Xiaomi Communication Technology Co., Ltd.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b20f86ab6375bc1cd7ef429215a49db\" tg-width=\"1249\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xiaomi Home's business scope adds sales of pet food, education consulting, etc.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXiaomi Home's business scope adds sales of pet food, education consulting, etc.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金融界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-18 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Tianyancha App shows that recently, Xiaomi Home Technology Co., Ltd. has undergone industrial and commercial changes, and its business scope has added educational consulting services (excluding education and training activities involving licensing approval); Sale of pet food; Organize cultural and artistic exchange activities (excluding commercial performances), etc.</p><p>Xiaomi Home Technology Co., Ltd. was established in January 2017 with a registered capital of 80 million yuan. Lei Jun is the executive director and the legal representative is Lu Weibing. It is wholly owned by Xiaomi Communication Technology Co., Ltd.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b20f86ab6375bc1cd7ef429215a49db\" tg-width=\"1249\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109181021167c3e13b1&s=b\">金融界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea2b9ab8a046974039715aed46d9985","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109181021167c3e13b1&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2168278574","content_text":"天眼查App显示，近日，小米之家科技有限公司发生工商变更，经营范围新增教育咨询服务（不含涉许可审批的教育培训活动）；销售宠物食品；组织文化艺术交流活动（不含营业性演出）等。\n小米之家科技有限公司成立于2017年1月，注册资本8000万人民币，雷军任执行董事，法定代表人为卢伟冰，由小米通讯技术有限公司全资持股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"48657":0.9,"48708":0.6,"48717":0.6,"48730":0.6,"48754":0.6,"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883541468,"gmtCreate":1631259373254,"gmtModify":1676530511307,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883541468","repostId":"2166329522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2166329522","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631258522,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2166329522?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-10 15:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. natural gas prices soar, likely to hit a 13-year high this winter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166329522","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于供应的减少和需求的增加，美国天然气价格正在上涨，如果今年冬季遇上比正常冬天更冷的天气，天然气价格可能会是13年来最贵。\n9月9日周四，在期货市场，10月份天然气合约价格自2014 年2月以来翻了一","content":"<p>U.S. natural gas prices are rising due to reduced supply and increased demand. If this winter encounters colder than normal weather, natural gas prices may be the most expensive in 13 years.</p><p>On Thursday, September 9, in the futures market, the October natural gas contract price doubled since February 2014, rising to $5 per million British thermal units (mmBtus) for the first time, and is expected to continue to rise, resulting in higher winter heating bills for some consumers and higher costs for electric utilities.</p><p>The U.S., which has always been rich in natural gas resources, has been cheap for years, and this year's price increase is eye-popping.</p><p>From the supply side, as unprecedented high temperatures across the United States, especially in the Northwest, stimulated air conditioning demand this year, natural gas was used more throughout the summer, resulting in less gas stored in winter; In addition, the U.S. oil industry has also cut production due to Hurricane Ida, and 77.3% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico is still shut down (the natural gas produced in the United States is mainly composed of shale gas and tight gas).</p><p><b>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>According to the Intelligence Agency, the current level of natural gas reserves in the United States is 7.4% below the five-year average and 16.8% below the level of the same period last year.</b></p><p>On the demand side, CNBC quoted Jack Fusco, CEO of Cheniere Energy, as saying, \"<b>Demand for natural gas has skyrocketed as countries and companies around the world decide to use it as the fuel of choice for clean energy transmission as economies begin to recover.</b>”</p><p>According to Fusco, \"You can easily see it go up to $6 and you can see it go up to $8 to $10, and any initial arrival of cold weather will fuel that.\" The last time gas prices reached this high level was in 2008.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. natural gas prices soar, likely to hit a 13-year high this winter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. natural gas prices soar, likely to hit a 13-year high this winter\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 15:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. natural gas prices are rising due to reduced supply and increased demand. If this winter encounters colder than normal weather, natural gas prices may be the most expensive in 13 years.</p><p>On Thursday, September 9, in the futures market, the October natural gas contract price doubled since February 2014, rising to $5 per million British thermal units (mmBtus) for the first time, and is expected to continue to rise, resulting in higher winter heating bills for some consumers and higher costs for electric utilities.</p><p>The U.S., which has always been rich in natural gas resources, has been cheap for years, and this year's price increase is eye-popping.</p><p>From the supply side, as unprecedented high temperatures across the United States, especially in the Northwest, stimulated air conditioning demand this year, natural gas was used more throughout the summer, resulting in less gas stored in winter; In addition, the U.S. oil industry has also cut production due to Hurricane Ida, and 77.3% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico is still shut down (the natural gas produced in the United States is mainly composed of shale gas and tight gas).</p><p><b>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>According to the Intelligence Agency, the current level of natural gas reserves in the United States is 7.4% below the five-year average and 16.8% below the level of the same period last year.</b></p><p>On the demand side, CNBC quoted Jack Fusco, CEO of Cheniere Energy, as saying, \"<b>Demand for natural gas has skyrocketed as countries and companies around the world decide to use it as the fuel of choice for clean energy transmission as economies begin to recover.</b>”</p><p>According to Fusco, \"You can easily see it go up to $6 and you can see it go up to $8 to $10, and any initial arrival of cold weather will fuel that.\" The last time gas prices reached this high level was in 2008.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3640120\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e30cfe5645b7e4a87e1527e86da349","relate_stocks":{"DGAZ":"三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","UNG":"美国天然气基金","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3640120","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2166329522","content_text":"由于供应的减少和需求的增加，美国天然气价格正在上涨，如果今年冬季遇上比正常冬天更冷的天气，天然气价格可能会是13年来最贵。\n9月9日周四，在期货市场，10月份天然气合约价格自2014 年2月以来翻了一番，首次升至5美元每百万英热单位(mmBtus)，且预计还会继续上涨，导致部分消费者冬季取暖费用增加，电力公司成本增加。\n美国的天然气资源一向丰富，多年来一直很便宜，今年的价格上涨令人瞠目结舌。\n从供给方面来看，由于今年美国各地，尤其是西北部地区前所未有的高温刺激了空调需求，整个夏季天然气使用较多，导致冬季储存的气体较少；再加上，美国石油工业也因艾达(Ida)飓风而减产，墨西哥湾77.3%的石油产量仍处于关闭状态（美国生产的天然气主要由页岩气和致密气构成）。\n据美国能源情报署的数据，目前美国天然气储备水平比五年平均水平低7.4%，比去年同期水平低16.8%。\n而需求方面，CNBC援引Cheniere能源公司首席执行官杰克·弗斯科（Jack Fusco）称，“随着经济开始复苏，全球各国和公司决定将天然气作为清洁能源传输的首选燃料，对天然气的需求猛增。”\nFusco表示，“你可以很容易地看到它涨到6美元，也可以看到它涨到8到10美元，任何初步到来的寒冷天气都会助长这种现象。”上一次天然气价格达到如此高的水平是在2008年。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DGAZ":0.9,"UGAZ":0.9,"UNG":0.9,"QGmain":0.9,"NGmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}