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DavidLeeT
2023-08-01
Hi there Nice to see you today
DavidLeeT
2023-01-25
Slowly
Opening | U.S. stocks collectively open low, Microsoft fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session
DavidLeeT
2022-04-05
$格林美(002340)$
...
DavidLeeT
2022-03-10
..
Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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there Nice to see you today ","listText":"Hi there Nice to see you today ","text":"Hi there Nice to see you today","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/204068156846240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952605972,"gmtCreate":1674660491696,"gmtModify":1676538951472,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578436425687491","authorIdStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Slowly ","listText":"Slowly ","text":"Slowly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952605972","repostId":"1108441041","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108441041","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1674657098,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108441041?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-25 22:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | U.S. stocks collectively open low, Microsoft fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108441041","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"道琼斯指数开盘下跌279.48点，跌幅0.83%，报33454.48点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 25 (Wednesday), the Dow Jones index opened down 279.48 points, or 0.83%, to 33,454.48 points; The S&P 500 index opened down 49.00 points, or 1.22%, to 3967.95 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 203.66 points, or 1.80%, to 11,130.61 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3303c0c34092357f18d49c6c81847b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Falling more than 3%, Microsoft's revenue in the second fiscal quarter of 2023 was US $52.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, the lowest growth rate since 2016; Profit fell to US $16.43 billion from US $18.77 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The growth rate of cloud business Azure has slowed down, and the company expects this trend to continue in the coming quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6489561bf104fbba322153fcb0a0e129\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Open low fell 2%,<b>Tesla will announce its financial report after the market closes today, and some analysts predict that its net profit will hit a new low in nearly three years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2193f64bddde69ce27ee39a2708ee134\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>It fell more than 3%, and Q4 revenue and net profit were lower than expected.</p><p>Abbott fell 2%. Affected by the decline in demand for new crown testing products, Q4 revenue fell 12% to US $10.1 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">NASDAQ OMX Exchange</a>It fell 7%, the largest drop since March 2020, and fourth-quarter results fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>(AT&T) bucked the trend and rose nearly 4%. In the fourth quarter, adjusted earnings per share were $0.61, exceeding market expectations.</p><p>Shopify bucked the trend and rose more than 5% after the company said it would raise prices for some services in 2023.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell more and rose less at the beginning of the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 0.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 0.54%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Fell more than 2%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | U.S. stocks collectively open low, Microsoft fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | U.S. stocks collectively open low, Microsoft fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-25 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 25 (Wednesday), the Dow Jones index opened down 279.48 points, or 0.83%, to 33,454.48 points; The S&P 500 index opened down 49.00 points, or 1.22%, to 3967.95 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 203.66 points, or 1.80%, to 11,130.61 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3303c0c34092357f18d49c6c81847b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Falling more than 3%, Microsoft's revenue in the second fiscal quarter of 2023 was US $52.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, the lowest growth rate since 2016; Profit fell to US $16.43 billion from US $18.77 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The growth rate of cloud business Azure has slowed down, and the company expects this trend to continue in the coming quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6489561bf104fbba322153fcb0a0e129\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Open low fell 2%,<b>Tesla will announce its financial report after the market closes today, and some analysts predict that its net profit will hit a new low in nearly three years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2193f64bddde69ce27ee39a2708ee134\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>It fell more than 3%, and Q4 revenue and net profit were lower than expected.</p><p>Abbott fell 2%. Affected by the decline in demand for new crown testing products, Q4 revenue fell 12% to US $10.1 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">NASDAQ OMX Exchange</a>It fell 7%, the largest drop since March 2020, and fourth-quarter results fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>(AT&T) bucked the trend and rose nearly 4%. In the fourth quarter, adjusted earnings per share were $0.61, exceeding market expectations.</p><p>Shopify bucked the trend and rose more than 5% after the company said it would raise prices for some services in 2023.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell more and rose less at the beginning of the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 0.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 0.54%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Fell more than 2%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108441041","content_text":"1月25日（周三），道琼斯指数开盘下跌279.48点，跌幅0.83%，报33454.48点；标普500指数开盘下跌49.00点，跌幅1.22%，报3967.95点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌203.66点，跌幅1.80%，报11130.61点。微软跌超3%，微软2023年第二财季收入为527.5亿美元，同比增长2%，创下2016年以来的最低增速；利润从上一年同期的187.7亿美元降至164.3亿美元，同比下滑12%。云业务Azure增速放缓，公司预计这种趋势可能在未来几个季度持续。特斯拉低开跌2%，特斯拉将于今日盘后公布财报，有分析师预计其净利润将创近3年新低。波音跌超3%，Q4营收和净利润均不及预期。雅培跌2%，受新冠测试产品需求下降的影响，Q4营收下滑12%至101亿美元。纳斯达克OMX交易所跌7%，创2020年3月以来最大跌幅，第四季度业绩不及预期。美国电话电报(AT&T)逆市涨近4%，第四季度调整后每股收益0.61美元，超出市场预期。Shopify逆市涨超5%，此前该公司表示2023年将提高部分服务的价格。热门中概股盘初阶段跌多涨少，阿里巴巴涨0.36%，拼多多跌0.35%，京东跌0.54%，小鹏汽车、蔚来、理想汽车跌超2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016184355,"gmtCreate":1649149002763,"gmtModify":1676534459353,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578436425687491","authorIdStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002340\">$格林美(002340)$</a>...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002340\">$格林美(002340)$</a>...","text":"$格林美(002340)$...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/637d8876e329a2cf71420438f1b7af1c","width":"1242","height":"1968"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016184355","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038476956,"gmtCreate":1646904897821,"gmtModify":1676534175374,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578436425687491","authorIdStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038476956","repostId":"1137319987","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137319987","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646904185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137319987?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-10 17:23","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137319987","media":"宏观闻涛声","summary":"如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。我们讨论了当前原油市场经历的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>How to understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b></p><p>Under the current complex and ever-changing global environment, based on the analysis of geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structure, we look forward to the potential trend of crude oil prices and the possible impact on inflation and interest rates. We discuss eight major geopolitical shocks currently experienced by the crude oil market, including: the Cuban crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgian conflict, the Crimea crisis, and the current Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, the global crude oil supply and demand pattern is analyzed.</p><p><b>Regarding previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we believe that:</b></p><p>There are three main types of shock response. In the first category, oil prices have risen significantly, with a range of about 150%-200%. In the second category, oil prices fall back after rising on a monthly basis, and the pullback/retracement can reach about 40%-60%. The third category is that oil prices fluctuate in the short term, but the long-term impact is not significant.</p><p><b>Regarding the current and next stage of global crude oil supply and demand pattern, we believe that:</b></p><p>At present, there is a gap between supply and demand of crude oil. Geopolitical games, industrial chain disturbances and potential sanctions have all affected the filling of this gap. The distribution of the burden of the gap is uneven, and the process of gap repair is highly affected by the geopolitical situation.</p><p><b>Regarding the possible follow-up development path of the impact of the conflict in Ukraine, we believe that:</b></p><p>(1) Before the conflict is substantially resolved, it is difficult for oil prices to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the recent inflation risk in the world, especially in the United States.</p><p>(2) Although we expect that the world will face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that China's inflation and interest rates will face higher upward risks in the same proportion. In fact, it may be that the upward pressure on interest rates at the annual level in China is relatively weakening.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, for the next stage of crude oil price trend, we look forward to it by scenario and give technical points: i) The current crude oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall,</b>The overall situation is supported by geopolitical conflicts and gaps between supply and demand;<b>ii) So that the conflict can be effectively settled before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the low range of 60-90 US dollars/barrel;<b>iii) So that conflict was partially settled around May,</b>For example, if only military operations slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of US $160-190/barrel at the annual level;<b>iv) Such conflict is still intense after May,</b>Then crude oil prices may push up to the historical record level of 190-230 US dollars/barrel at the annual level;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci technical points of crude oil prices upward and downward, from low to high, are:</b>US $24.1/barrel, US $63.7/barrel, US $88.1/barrel, US $127.7/barrel, US $159.7/barrel, US $191.7/barrel, US $231.3/barrel, US $255.7/barrel and US $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>1 Foreword: Where are crude oil prices going?</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, global crude oil prices have continued to rise, and as of March 9, they have been pushed to more than US $120/barrel. We believe that the current rapid rise in crude oil prices is mainly driven by the dual factors of geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand gaps. It is reasonable, but it also faces high volatility and uncertainty.</p><p><b>How to understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b>Under the current complex and ever-changing global environment, based on the analysis of geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structure, we look forward to the potential trend of crude oil prices and the possible impact on inflation and interest rates.</p><p><b>2 Historical geopolitical conflicts and crude oil price trends</b></p><p>This part considers the shock response model of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\" in history, and based on the historical model, establishes a trend expectation framework for this round of crude oil price shock response model.</p><p><b>2.1 Eight major geopolitical conflicts currently experienced by the crude oil market</b></p><p>Considering the impact on the crude oil market and the intensity of geopolitical conflicts, the current crude oil market established after World War II has experienced at least eight significant geopolitical conflicts, namely: the Cuban crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgian conflict, the Crimean crisis, and the current Ukrainian conflict.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73108c9a5c02abfc82423dbfe161291\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We briefly summarize previous geopolitical conflicts to provide the basis for our subsequent classification of the impact model of \"geopolitical conflicts-crude oil prices\", mainly focusing on the geopolitical conflicts: duration, influence area, intensity of confrontation and resolution form.</p><p><b>(1) The Cuban crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August-October 1962, lasting about 3 months.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: the United States, the former Soviet Union, Cuba, affecting the Caribbean region, which is not the main global crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: The deployment of missiles and nuclear weapons, the United States upgraded its combat readiness level to Level II, and it was resolved peacefully without open hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/829b034b3db8ad9969e4b66be32a80a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The first oil crisis/the fourth Middle East war</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: October 1973-March 1974, lasting approximately 6 months.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Egypt and other Arab countries in the Middle East, Israel, the United States, and the former Soviet Union, affecting the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil producing area. OPEC announced an oil embargo on some countries in October 1973.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: local wars with more participating countries and high short-term intensity, the United States upgraded its combat readiness level to Level III, and redrawn its national boundaries and territories after the hot war.</p><p><b>(3) Second Oil Crisis/Iranian Revolution/Iran-Iraq War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: January 1979-February 1981, lasting approximately 26 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Iran, Iraq, the United States, and the former Soviet Union, affecting the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional power conflicts, high-intensity local wars, and continuous hostilities after hot wars.</p><p><b>(4) Third Oil Crisis/Gulf War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 1990-March 1991, lasting about 8 months.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Iraq, the United States, Kuwait, affecting the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflict, short-term local war, the United States upgraded its combat readiness level to Level II, severely damaged Iraq at a slight cost, gained an overwhelming military advantage, and Iraq accepted the United Nations resolution to withdraw its troops.</p><p><b>(5) NATO bombing the Yugoslavia/Kosovo war</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March-June 1999, lasting approximately 4 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, the United States, NATO, affecting the Balkans and further affecting Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflicts, short-term local wars, NATO led by the United States gained an overwhelming military advantage, and the former Yugoslavia disintegrated after the war.</p><p><b>(6) Georgia Conflict</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 2008, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Georgia, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: short-term local conflicts, Russia gains an overwhelming military advantage, Russia announces that it recognizes the independence of some regions, but the United States and NATO do not recognize it.</p><p><b>(7) Crimean crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March 2014, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Crimea, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: short-term local turmoil, no large-scale military conflict, Russia announced that it recognized some areas to join Russia, but the United States and NATO did not recognize it.</p><p><b>(8) Ukraine conflict (as of March 9, 2022)</b></p><p>As of now, the main outbreak stage/time: February 2022-present, still in military conflict.</p><p>Up to now, it mainly affects countries/regions: Ukraine, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Up to now, the main forms of conflict/resolution: regional military conflicts and negotiations are ongoing at the same time, Russia has upgraded its strategic weapons readiness level into a special state, the United States has upgraded its combat readiness level to level III, and the United States and the European Union have announced sanctions such as banning some Russian institutions from using the SWIFT system. The United States has announced a ban on Russian crude oil and natural gas imports, but so far Germany and other EU countries have not explicitly announced follow-up.</p><p><b>2.2 Crude oil price trend under geopolitical conflicts</b></p><p>Based on the above analysis of the duration of the conflict, the area of influence, the intensity of confrontation and the form of resolution, when considering the crude oil price trend during the same period and the next 24 months, we believe that the impact response trend of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\" can mainly be divided into three categories:</p><p><b>(1) In the first category, oil prices have risen significantly, with a cumulative upward range of about 150%-200%.</b>Typical representatives are the first and second oil crises and NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia. The typical characteristics are that there are high-intensity military conflicts, or they escalate into local wars. The conflicts last for at least 4 months. The areas affected by the conflicts involve crude oil supply. At the same time, some crude oil exporting countries have embargoes pushing up oil prices.</p><p><b>(2) In the second category, the oil price began to fall within 1-3 months after the outbreak of the incident, and then dropped significantly, with a cumulative decline of about 40%-60%.</b>Typical representatives are the third oil crisis, the Georgian conflict and the Crimean crisis. The typical characteristics are that the incident achieves phased reconciliation relatively quickly, or one party to the military conflict has an overwhelming advantage, or the intensity is generally controllable. At the same time, some currency-dominated countries stabilize oil prices.</p><p><b>(3) In the third category, although the oil price has declined, it has not fluctuated greatly, and the long-term impact is not significant. The typical example is the Cuban crisis.</b>The typical feature is that the incident is highly sudden. Although the short-term pressure is high, it is resolved relatively quickly (within one month). The major crude oil producing areas that did not occur have not escalated into hot wars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8abded75c09dda6d29b0c3a627f31c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Combining the three types and mapping the corresponding \"geopolitical shock-oil price response\" trends to the current Ukrainian time in equal proportions, as shown in the different scenario trends in Figure 5, we believe that:</b></p><p><b>(1) The current trend of crude oil prices has initially deviated from the historical trend pattern of \"short-term quick solution\", and is showing continued upward pressure.</b>Historically, the three main \"quick resolution-oil price fall\" models, namely, Scenario 0 Cuba crisis, Scenario 5 Georgia conflict and Scenario 6 Crimea crisis, have all deviated from the current crude oil price trend to a certain extent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of oil prices in the next stage, from the historical pattern, highly depends on whether reconciliation can be achieved within 3-4 months, that is, from March to May.</b>Historically, if reconciliation can be achieved within 3-4 months, it is possible to get out of the similar trend of the third oil crisis in Scenario 3. Oil prices have gradually fallen since June, giving back their previous gains.</p><p><b>(3) From the historical model, if this conflict cannot be settled before May at the latest, the oil price will probably go out of the cumulative significant increase of about 100%-200%.</b>That is, referring to the first oil crisis in Scenario 1, the second oil crisis in Scenario 2 and the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in Scenario 4 in history, when mapped to this Ukraine impact, oil prices may rise above US $160/barrel in mid-2022. barrel, rising to US $190-230/barrel at the end of the year.</p><p><b>(4) At the same time, we calculated the Fibonacci quantile based on the fluctuation amplitude of previous shock response in history, and converted it into the corresponding technical pressure resistance level of this round, from low to high, respectively:</b>US $24.1/barrel, US $63.7/barrel, US $88.1/barrel, US $127.7/barrel, US $159.7/barrel, US $191.7/barrel, US $231.3/barrel, US $255.7/barrel and US $295.3/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea70ca6182eb668ba0d534bbcf7652c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3 The current crude oil supply and demand pattern and the possible impact of the Russian crude oil embargo</b></p><p>After examining the geopolitical impact response of crude oil prices in the previous section, this section examines the current fundamentals of global crude oil supply and demand, as well as the possible crude oil market impact of Russia, an important participant in geopolitical conflicts.</p><p><b>3.1 Crude oil supply: relatively insufficient</b></p><p>At present, examining the total global crude oil supply situation, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) The supply side as a whole has not fully recovered.</b>From the perspective of global daily crude oil production, the current total global supply is still lower than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level in 2019 to a certain extent.</p><p><b>(2) Russia is an important crude oil producer, and the recent situation it is facing has brought high uncertainty to future supply.</b>In terms of global production share, as of the end of 2021, Russia is approximately 11.4%, Iran is approximately 3.6%, and the United States is approximately 20.3%.</p><p><b>(3) The United States has basically achieved self-sufficiency in crude oil, and its subsequent crude oil policy has brought high uncertainty to future supply.</b>As of the end of 2021, the U.S. 's own crude oil production has exceeded 90% of its own crude oil consumption. Since it rose above 50% for the first time in 2012, the U.S. crude oil consumption self-sufficiency rate has continued to increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d39c78642295ae419afce2fc3bf7807\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Crude oil demand: gap and inventory decline</b></p><p>Currently, examining the global crude oil demand situation, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) Demand exceeds supply, providing fundamental support for the upward trend of oil prices.</b>Since 2021, global aggregate demand has continued to be higher than total supply, and the duration and magnitude of the gap have reached or approached historical record levels. Judging from past experience, during previous periods of exceeding demand and supply gap, crude oil prices have been dominated by the above lines.</p><p><b>(2) The impact of Ukraine may further increase the current dislocation of crude oil supply and demand.</b>This conflict in Ukraine will mainly impact the crude oil production side in the short term, superimposed on the disturbance of the early industrial chain, bringing further short-term supply and demand imbalance pressure. However, it should also be noted that as oil prices rise, when the potential supply promotion and demand suppression effects can bring about gap filling requires follow-up observation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15988b0a0859f2d0fd2b47d960a2ed4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) The low level of crude oil inventory is obvious.</b>Most of the inventories in major crude oil consuming countries are in a state of depletion and low inventory, further pushing up the demand for crude oil replenishment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946fa6e3a5e32bd7965cfa7ced73789a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 Russia's main trade patterns</b></p><p><b>(1) The composition of Russia's export products is more concentrated in bulk commodities such as crude oil</b></p><p>Russia's exports are mainly bulk commodities, and it is an important exporter of crude oil, natural gas, aluminum and steel and other metals, wheat, fertilizers and other fields. According to the export value, the top 15 export products are: 1 ~ 5: crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, machinery and tools, diesel oil; 6-10: Liquid fuel, ferrous metal, coal, raw aluminum, semi-finished carbon steel; 11-15: Wheat and mixed wheat, flat carbon steel, processed wood, mixed fertilizer, inorganic nitrogen fertilizer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b2df830c36875d2bd3fadf0218941ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's trade exchanges are mainly in Europe and Asia</b></p><p>As shown in Figure 12 and Figure 13, as of the end of 2021: my country and Germany are the trading partners with the highest share of Russia, accounting for 17.9% and 7.3% of Russia's total import and export trade respectively; The United States and the United Kingdom accounted for less than 5% of Russia's net export trade, accounting for 4.4% and 3.4% respectively; Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), European Union (EU) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are Russia's three most important trading partner organizations, that is, Russia's trade is mainly in Europe and Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0037bc51640a5aeeeb0204be0ea9115d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.4 The impact of possible sanctions on Russian crude oil exports</b></p><p>On March 9, Beijing time, the Associated Press reported that US President Biden announced a ban on the import of Russian crude oil, natural gas and other products to the United States. As of 14.00 pm, the United Kingdom stated that it would consider following up, while Germany and other continental European countries have not yet made a clear statement.</p><p><b>(1) Compared with the United States and Britain, the cost of EU countries such as Germany and France to join the crude oil embargo is higher</b></p><p>From the perspective of crude oil self-sufficiency rate, the crude oil self-sufficiency rate of both the United States and the United Kingdom is around 90%. If production is further expanded, they have the ability to increase the self-sufficiency rate to more than 100%-the crude oil self-sufficiency rate of the United Kingdom has been higher than 100% for a long time in history. The current U.S. shale oil production is still lower than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level in 2019, and there is some room for production increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596863f0c6bc489538603d9545b511a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's crude oil export volume is relatively large, such as an embargo, which will inevitably have a significant short-term impact on the market. However, from the perspective of total global production capacity, regardless of geographical factors and transportation costs, it is still possible for the United States to stabilize the supply gap.</b></p><p>Currently, Russia's crude oil production is about 11 million barrels per day, and its export scale is about 4-7 million barrels per day. Regardless of total production or export volume, its share of global crude oil supply or export is about 11%. Under the assumption of the most extreme situation, if there is a complete embargo, the global daily crude oil consumption will increase by 4-7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 4.5%-7.9% of the total global daily crude oil consumption.</p><p>Currently, the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, which are still subject to U.S. sanctions, are about 1.5-2 million barrels per day and 2-2.5 million barrels per day lower than before the sanctions, respectively. In Saudi Arabia, crude oil exports are still about 1 million barrels per day lower than before COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, its own crude oil exports have risen from less than 600,000 barrels per day in 2016 to more than 3 million barrels per day at present, and there is still room to increase production.</p><p>However, it should still be noted that the impact of the potential crude oil embargo is unevenly distributed. Compared with the United Kingdom and the United States, continental European countries such as Germany and France will bear more potential risks and pressures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/266aa2ba8a612e5bfcfae562030691c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4 Summary and Outlook</b></p><p>In the last part of this article, we summarize the potential market impact patterns and laws of the \"geo-crude oil\" impact, and based on the current situation, we look forward to the possible subsequent crude oil price trends and their potential derivative impacts.</p><p><b>4.1 Possible market models after the impact of \"geo-crude oil\"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fcc254e66fe9f0308cf7c2503d5914\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As shown in Figure 18, when reviewing the market pattern after previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) The trend of crude oil prices after the impact is highly correlated with the rhythm of U.S. rate hike.</b>Furthermore, due to the higher frequency nature of crude oil prices than the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, crude oil prices can be used as a forward-looking indicator of interest rate decisions in actual operations-from the perspective of geopolitical shocks, when the shocks occur, the oil price trend within the annual line and The target interest rate adjustment direction is highly consistent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of US 10Y Treasury Bond yields after the shock is highly correlated with the trend of crude oil prices.</b>After excluding short-term disturbances at the daily level such as risk aversion, the monthly trend of crude oil prices is highly consistent with the trend of yields in the year after the impact.</p><p><b>(3) In the year or the next year when most conflicts occurred, the economic growth rate of the United States moved down, or even fell into the recession range.</b>Furthermore, when looking back at the global economic growth in the year and the next year of the conflict, most of the time, the actual growth results of most countries and regions are lower than the expected value before the conflict, but it should be noted that the distribution of this downward adjustment is often uneven-conflict participants and regional economies are often significantly revised down, followed by economic and trade related parties, and then other less affected countries and regions.</p><p><b>4.2 Possible subsequent developments of the current \"geo-crude oil\" impact in Ukraine</b></p><p><b>Considering the impact patterns of previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we expect the possible subsequent development path of the current Ukrainian conflict and the impact of the event as follows:</b></p><p><b>(1) Before the conflict is substantially resolved, it is difficult for oil prices to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the recent inflation risk in the world, especially in the United States.</b>In this conflict, there are still significant differences between Russia's main demands and the position of the United States. At present, with the increase of the duration of regional military conflicts, oil prices are moving away from the mode of \"short-term conflict-oil price falling\". If they can't be reconciled in the next 1-3 months, the probability of shifting to the mode of \"continuous conflict-oil price rising\" is on the rise. At the same time, unlike the past situation, the United States is imposing all-round sanctions and embargoes on Russia's finance, trade and science and technology, relying on its dominant position in global finance, trade and science and technology.</p><p><b>(2) Although we expect that the world will face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that China's inflation and interest rates will face higher upward risks in the same proportion. In fact, it may be that the upward pressure on interest rates at the annual level in China is relatively weakening.</b>As conflicts disrupt the global industrial chain, regardless of whether crude oil prices rise or not, the conflict itself is more likely to weaken local and global economic growth within 1-2 years. As the world's largest producer, my country will face relatively smaller inflation risks. Due to the higher uncertainty of the external environment, policies will pay more attention to the consideration of \"stability is progress\" and \"self-oriented\" to reduce the actual financing costs of enterprises. and a stable RMB value will provide better monetary policy and interest rate space.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, returning to the trend of crude oil prices, we believe that: i) the current crude oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall,</b>The overall situation is supported by geopolitical conflicts and gaps between supply and demand;<b>ii) So that the conflict can be effectively settled before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the low range of 60-90 US dollars/barrel;<b>iii) So that conflict was partially settled around May,</b>For example, if only military operations slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of US $160-190/barrel at the annual level;<b>iv) Such conflict is still intense after May,</b>Then crude oil prices may push up to the historical record level of 190-230 US dollars/barrel at the annual level;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci technical points of crude oil prices upward and downward, from low to high, are:</b>US $24.1/barrel, US $63.7/barrel, US $88.1/barrel, US $127.7/barrel, US $159.7/barrel, US $191.7/barrel, US $231.3/barrel, US $255.7/barrel and US $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical, economic, inflation, overseas uncertainty and epidemic risks</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1646904227423","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere will crude oil prices go in the next stage?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">宏观闻涛声</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-10 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>How to understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b></p><p>Under the current complex and ever-changing global environment, based on the analysis of geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structure, we look forward to the potential trend of crude oil prices and the possible impact on inflation and interest rates. We discuss eight major geopolitical shocks currently experienced by the crude oil market, including: the Cuban crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgian conflict, the Crimea crisis, and the current Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, the global crude oil supply and demand pattern is analyzed.</p><p><b>Regarding previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we believe that:</b></p><p>There are three main types of shock response. In the first category, oil prices have risen significantly, with a range of about 150%-200%. In the second category, oil prices fall back after rising on a monthly basis, and the pullback/retracement can reach about 40%-60%. The third category is that oil prices fluctuate in the short term, but the long-term impact is not significant.</p><p><b>Regarding the current and next stage of global crude oil supply and demand pattern, we believe that:</b></p><p>At present, there is a gap between supply and demand of crude oil. Geopolitical games, industrial chain disturbances and potential sanctions have all affected the filling of this gap. The distribution of the burden of the gap is uneven, and the process of gap repair is highly affected by the geopolitical situation.</p><p><b>Regarding the possible follow-up development path of the impact of the conflict in Ukraine, we believe that:</b></p><p>(1) Before the conflict is substantially resolved, it is difficult for oil prices to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the recent inflation risk in the world, especially in the United States.</p><p>(2) Although we expect that the world will face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that China's inflation and interest rates will face higher upward risks in the same proportion. In fact, it may be that the upward pressure on interest rates at the annual level in China is relatively weakening.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, for the next stage of crude oil price trend, we look forward to it by scenario and give technical points: i) The current crude oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall,</b>The overall situation is supported by geopolitical conflicts and gaps between supply and demand;<b>ii) So that the conflict can be effectively settled before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the low range of 60-90 US dollars/barrel;<b>iii) So that conflict was partially settled around May,</b>For example, if only military operations slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of US $160-190/barrel at the annual level;<b>iv) Such conflict is still intense after May,</b>Then crude oil prices may push up to the historical record level of 190-230 US dollars/barrel at the annual level;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci technical points of crude oil prices upward and downward, from low to high, are:</b>US $24.1/barrel, US $63.7/barrel, US $88.1/barrel, US $127.7/barrel, US $159.7/barrel, US $191.7/barrel, US $231.3/barrel, US $255.7/barrel and US $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>1 Foreword: Where are crude oil prices going?</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, global crude oil prices have continued to rise, and as of March 9, they have been pushed to more than US $120/barrel. We believe that the current rapid rise in crude oil prices is mainly driven by the dual factors of geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand gaps. It is reasonable, but it also faces high volatility and uncertainty.</p><p><b>How to understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b>Under the current complex and ever-changing global environment, based on the analysis of geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structure, we look forward to the potential trend of crude oil prices and the possible impact on inflation and interest rates.</p><p><b>2 Historical geopolitical conflicts and crude oil price trends</b></p><p>This part considers the shock response model of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\" in history, and based on the historical model, establishes a trend expectation framework for this round of crude oil price shock response model.</p><p><b>2.1 Eight major geopolitical conflicts currently experienced by the crude oil market</b></p><p>Considering the impact on the crude oil market and the intensity of geopolitical conflicts, the current crude oil market established after World War II has experienced at least eight significant geopolitical conflicts, namely: the Cuban crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgian conflict, the Crimean crisis, and the current Ukrainian conflict.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73108c9a5c02abfc82423dbfe161291\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We briefly summarize previous geopolitical conflicts to provide the basis for our subsequent classification of the impact model of \"geopolitical conflicts-crude oil prices\", mainly focusing on the geopolitical conflicts: duration, influence area, intensity of confrontation and resolution form.</p><p><b>(1) The Cuban crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August-October 1962, lasting about 3 months.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: the United States, the former Soviet Union, Cuba, affecting the Caribbean region, which is not the main global crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: The deployment of missiles and nuclear weapons, the United States upgraded its combat readiness level to Level II, and it was resolved peacefully without open hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/829b034b3db8ad9969e4b66be32a80a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The first oil crisis/the fourth Middle East war</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: October 1973-March 1974, lasting approximately 6 months.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Egypt and other Arab countries in the Middle East, Israel, the United States, and the former Soviet Union, affecting the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil producing area. OPEC announced an oil embargo on some countries in October 1973.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: local wars with more participating countries and high short-term intensity, the United States upgraded its combat readiness level to Level III, and redrawn its national boundaries and territories after the hot war.</p><p><b>(3) Second Oil Crisis/Iranian Revolution/Iran-Iraq War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: January 1979-February 1981, lasting approximately 26 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Iran, Iraq, the United States, and the former Soviet Union, affecting the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional power conflicts, high-intensity local wars, and continuous hostilities after hot wars.</p><p><b>(4) Third Oil Crisis/Gulf War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 1990-March 1991, lasting about 8 months.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Iraq, the United States, Kuwait, affecting the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflict, short-term local war, the United States upgraded its combat readiness level to Level II, severely damaged Iraq at a slight cost, gained an overwhelming military advantage, and Iraq accepted the United Nations resolution to withdraw its troops.</p><p><b>(5) NATO bombing the Yugoslavia/Kosovo war</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March-June 1999, lasting approximately 4 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, the United States, NATO, affecting the Balkans and further affecting Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflicts, short-term local wars, NATO led by the United States gained an overwhelming military advantage, and the former Yugoslavia disintegrated after the war.</p><p><b>(6) Georgia Conflict</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 2008, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Georgia, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: short-term local conflicts, Russia gains an overwhelming military advantage, Russia announces that it recognizes the independence of some regions, but the United States and NATO do not recognize it.</p><p><b>(7) Crimean crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March 2014, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Crimea, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: short-term local turmoil, no large-scale military conflict, Russia announced that it recognized some areas to join Russia, but the United States and NATO did not recognize it.</p><p><b>(8) Ukraine conflict (as of March 9, 2022)</b></p><p>As of now, the main outbreak stage/time: February 2022-present, still in military conflict.</p><p>Up to now, it mainly affects countries/regions: Ukraine, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Up to now, the main forms of conflict/resolution: regional military conflicts and negotiations are ongoing at the same time, Russia has upgraded its strategic weapons readiness level into a special state, the United States has upgraded its combat readiness level to level III, and the United States and the European Union have announced sanctions such as banning some Russian institutions from using the SWIFT system. The United States has announced a ban on Russian crude oil and natural gas imports, but so far Germany and other EU countries have not explicitly announced follow-up.</p><p><b>2.2 Crude oil price trend under geopolitical conflicts</b></p><p>Based on the above analysis of the duration of the conflict, the area of influence, the intensity of confrontation and the form of resolution, when considering the crude oil price trend during the same period and the next 24 months, we believe that the impact response trend of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\" can mainly be divided into three categories:</p><p><b>(1) In the first category, oil prices have risen significantly, with a cumulative upward range of about 150%-200%.</b>Typical representatives are the first and second oil crises and NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia. The typical characteristics are that there are high-intensity military conflicts, or they escalate into local wars. The conflicts last for at least 4 months. The areas affected by the conflicts involve crude oil supply. At the same time, some crude oil exporting countries have embargoes pushing up oil prices.</p><p><b>(2) In the second category, the oil price began to fall within 1-3 months after the outbreak of the incident, and then dropped significantly, with a cumulative decline of about 40%-60%.</b>Typical representatives are the third oil crisis, the Georgian conflict and the Crimean crisis. The typical characteristics are that the incident achieves phased reconciliation relatively quickly, or one party to the military conflict has an overwhelming advantage, or the intensity is generally controllable. At the same time, some currency-dominated countries stabilize oil prices.</p><p><b>(3) In the third category, although the oil price has declined, it has not fluctuated greatly, and the long-term impact is not significant. The typical example is the Cuban crisis.</b>The typical feature is that the incident is highly sudden. Although the short-term pressure is high, it is resolved relatively quickly (within one month). The major crude oil producing areas that did not occur have not escalated into hot wars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8abded75c09dda6d29b0c3a627f31c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Combining the three types and mapping the corresponding \"geopolitical shock-oil price response\" trends to the current Ukrainian time in equal proportions, as shown in the different scenario trends in Figure 5, we believe that:</b></p><p><b>(1) The current trend of crude oil prices has initially deviated from the historical trend pattern of \"short-term quick solution\", and is showing continued upward pressure.</b>Historically, the three main \"quick resolution-oil price fall\" models, namely, Scenario 0 Cuba crisis, Scenario 5 Georgia conflict and Scenario 6 Crimea crisis, have all deviated from the current crude oil price trend to a certain extent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of oil prices in the next stage, from the historical pattern, highly depends on whether reconciliation can be achieved within 3-4 months, that is, from March to May.</b>Historically, if reconciliation can be achieved within 3-4 months, it is possible to get out of the similar trend of the third oil crisis in Scenario 3. Oil prices have gradually fallen since June, giving back their previous gains.</p><p><b>(3) From the historical model, if this conflict cannot be settled before May at the latest, the oil price will probably go out of the cumulative significant increase of about 100%-200%.</b>That is, referring to the first oil crisis in Scenario 1, the second oil crisis in Scenario 2 and the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in Scenario 4 in history, when mapped to this Ukraine impact, oil prices may rise above US $160/barrel in mid-2022. barrel, rising to US $190-230/barrel at the end of the year.</p><p><b>(4) At the same time, we calculated the Fibonacci quantile based on the fluctuation amplitude of previous shock response in history, and converted it into the corresponding technical pressure resistance level of this round, from low to high, respectively:</b>US $24.1/barrel, US $63.7/barrel, US $88.1/barrel, US $127.7/barrel, US $159.7/barrel, US $191.7/barrel, US $231.3/barrel, US $255.7/barrel and US $295.3/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea70ca6182eb668ba0d534bbcf7652c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3 The current crude oil supply and demand pattern and the possible impact of the Russian crude oil embargo</b></p><p>After examining the geopolitical impact response of crude oil prices in the previous section, this section examines the current fundamentals of global crude oil supply and demand, as well as the possible crude oil market impact of Russia, an important participant in geopolitical conflicts.</p><p><b>3.1 Crude oil supply: relatively insufficient</b></p><p>At present, examining the total global crude oil supply situation, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) The supply side as a whole has not fully recovered.</b>From the perspective of global daily crude oil production, the current total global supply is still lower than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level in 2019 to a certain extent.</p><p><b>(2) Russia is an important crude oil producer, and the recent situation it is facing has brought high uncertainty to future supply.</b>In terms of global production share, as of the end of 2021, Russia is approximately 11.4%, Iran is approximately 3.6%, and the United States is approximately 20.3%.</p><p><b>(3) The United States has basically achieved self-sufficiency in crude oil, and its subsequent crude oil policy has brought high uncertainty to future supply.</b>As of the end of 2021, the U.S. 's own crude oil production has exceeded 90% of its own crude oil consumption. Since it rose above 50% for the first time in 2012, the U.S. crude oil consumption self-sufficiency rate has continued to increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d39c78642295ae419afce2fc3bf7807\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Crude oil demand: gap and inventory decline</b></p><p>Currently, examining the global crude oil demand situation, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) Demand exceeds supply, providing fundamental support for the upward trend of oil prices.</b>Since 2021, global aggregate demand has continued to be higher than total supply, and the duration and magnitude of the gap have reached or approached historical record levels. Judging from past experience, during previous periods of exceeding demand and supply gap, crude oil prices have been dominated by the above lines.</p><p><b>(2) The impact of Ukraine may further increase the current dislocation of crude oil supply and demand.</b>This conflict in Ukraine will mainly impact the crude oil production side in the short term, superimposed on the disturbance of the early industrial chain, bringing further short-term supply and demand imbalance pressure. However, it should also be noted that as oil prices rise, when the potential supply promotion and demand suppression effects can bring about gap filling requires follow-up observation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15988b0a0859f2d0fd2b47d960a2ed4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) The low level of crude oil inventory is obvious.</b>Most of the inventories in major crude oil consuming countries are in a state of depletion and low inventory, further pushing up the demand for crude oil replenishment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946fa6e3a5e32bd7965cfa7ced73789a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 Russia's main trade patterns</b></p><p><b>(1) The composition of Russia's export products is more concentrated in bulk commodities such as crude oil</b></p><p>Russia's exports are mainly bulk commodities, and it is an important exporter of crude oil, natural gas, aluminum and steel and other metals, wheat, fertilizers and other fields. According to the export value, the top 15 export products are: 1 ~ 5: crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, machinery and tools, diesel oil; 6-10: Liquid fuel, ferrous metal, coal, raw aluminum, semi-finished carbon steel; 11-15: Wheat and mixed wheat, flat carbon steel, processed wood, mixed fertilizer, inorganic nitrogen fertilizer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b2df830c36875d2bd3fadf0218941ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's trade exchanges are mainly in Europe and Asia</b></p><p>As shown in Figure 12 and Figure 13, as of the end of 2021: my country and Germany are the trading partners with the highest share of Russia, accounting for 17.9% and 7.3% of Russia's total import and export trade respectively; The United States and the United Kingdom accounted for less than 5% of Russia's net export trade, accounting for 4.4% and 3.4% respectively; Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), European Union (EU) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are Russia's three most important trading partner organizations, that is, Russia's trade is mainly in Europe and Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0037bc51640a5aeeeb0204be0ea9115d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.4 The impact of possible sanctions on Russian crude oil exports</b></p><p>On March 9, Beijing time, the Associated Press reported that US President Biden announced a ban on the import of Russian crude oil, natural gas and other products to the United States. As of 14.00 pm, the United Kingdom stated that it would consider following up, while Germany and other continental European countries have not yet made a clear statement.</p><p><b>(1) Compared with the United States and Britain, the cost of EU countries such as Germany and France to join the crude oil embargo is higher</b></p><p>From the perspective of crude oil self-sufficiency rate, the crude oil self-sufficiency rate of both the United States and the United Kingdom is around 90%. If production is further expanded, they have the ability to increase the self-sufficiency rate to more than 100%-the crude oil self-sufficiency rate of the United Kingdom has been higher than 100% for a long time in history. The current U.S. shale oil production is still lower than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level in 2019, and there is some room for production increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596863f0c6bc489538603d9545b511a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's crude oil export volume is relatively large, such as an embargo, which will inevitably have a significant short-term impact on the market. However, from the perspective of total global production capacity, regardless of geographical factors and transportation costs, it is still possible for the United States to stabilize the supply gap.</b></p><p>Currently, Russia's crude oil production is about 11 million barrels per day, and its export scale is about 4-7 million barrels per day. Regardless of total production or export volume, its share of global crude oil supply or export is about 11%. Under the assumption of the most extreme situation, if there is a complete embargo, the global daily crude oil consumption will increase by 4-7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 4.5%-7.9% of the total global daily crude oil consumption.</p><p>Currently, the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, which are still subject to U.S. sanctions, are about 1.5-2 million barrels per day and 2-2.5 million barrels per day lower than before the sanctions, respectively. In Saudi Arabia, crude oil exports are still about 1 million barrels per day lower than before COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, its own crude oil exports have risen from less than 600,000 barrels per day in 2016 to more than 3 million barrels per day at present, and there is still room to increase production.</p><p>However, it should still be noted that the impact of the potential crude oil embargo is unevenly distributed. Compared with the United Kingdom and the United States, continental European countries such as Germany and France will bear more potential risks and pressures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/266aa2ba8a612e5bfcfae562030691c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4 Summary and Outlook</b></p><p>In the last part of this article, we summarize the potential market impact patterns and laws of the \"geo-crude oil\" impact, and based on the current situation, we look forward to the possible subsequent crude oil price trends and their potential derivative impacts.</p><p><b>4.1 Possible market models after the impact of \"geo-crude oil\"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fcc254e66fe9f0308cf7c2503d5914\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As shown in Figure 18, when reviewing the market pattern after previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) The trend of crude oil prices after the impact is highly correlated with the rhythm of U.S. rate hike.</b>Furthermore, due to the higher frequency nature of crude oil prices than the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, crude oil prices can be used as a forward-looking indicator of interest rate decisions in actual operations-from the perspective of geopolitical shocks, when the shocks occur, the oil price trend within the annual line and The target interest rate adjustment direction is highly consistent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of US 10Y Treasury Bond yields after the shock is highly correlated with the trend of crude oil prices.</b>After excluding short-term disturbances at the daily level such as risk aversion, the monthly trend of crude oil prices is highly consistent with the trend of yields in the year after the impact.</p><p><b>(3) In the year or the next year when most conflicts occurred, the economic growth rate of the United States moved down, or even fell into the recession range.</b>Furthermore, when looking back at the global economic growth in the year and the next year of the conflict, most of the time, the actual growth results of most countries and regions are lower than the expected value before the conflict, but it should be noted that the distribution of this downward adjustment is often uneven-conflict participants and regional economies are often significantly revised down, followed by economic and trade related parties, and then other less affected countries and regions.</p><p><b>4.2 Possible subsequent developments of the current \"geo-crude oil\" impact in Ukraine</b></p><p><b>Considering the impact patterns of previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we expect the possible subsequent development path of the current Ukrainian conflict and the impact of the event as follows:</b></p><p><b>(1) Before the conflict is substantially resolved, it is difficult for oil prices to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the recent inflation risk in the world, especially in the United States.</b>In this conflict, there are still significant differences between Russia's main demands and the position of the United States. At present, with the increase of the duration of regional military conflicts, oil prices are moving away from the mode of \"short-term conflict-oil price falling\". If they can't be reconciled in the next 1-3 months, the probability of shifting to the mode of \"continuous conflict-oil price rising\" is on the rise. At the same time, unlike the past situation, the United States is imposing all-round sanctions and embargoes on Russia's finance, trade and science and technology, relying on its dominant position in global finance, trade and science and technology.</p><p><b>(2) Although we expect that the world will face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that China's inflation and interest rates will face higher upward risks in the same proportion. In fact, it may be that the upward pressure on interest rates at the annual level in China is relatively weakening.</b>As conflicts disrupt the global industrial chain, regardless of whether crude oil prices rise or not, the conflict itself is more likely to weaken local and global economic growth within 1-2 years. As the world's largest producer, my country will face relatively smaller inflation risks. Due to the higher uncertainty of the external environment, policies will pay more attention to the consideration of \"stability is progress\" and \"self-oriented\" to reduce the actual financing costs of enterprises. and a stable RMB value will provide better monetary policy and interest rate space.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, returning to the trend of crude oil prices, we believe that: i) the current crude oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall,</b>The overall situation is supported by geopolitical conflicts and gaps between supply and demand;<b>ii) So that the conflict can be effectively settled before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the low range of 60-90 US dollars/barrel;<b>iii) So that conflict was partially settled around May,</b>For example, if only military operations slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of US $160-190/barrel at the annual level;<b>iv) Such conflict is still intense after May,</b>Then crude oil prices may push up to the historical record level of 190-230 US dollars/barrel at the annual level;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci technical points of crude oil prices upward and downward, from low to high, are:</b>US $24.1/barrel, US $63.7/barrel, US $88.1/barrel, US $127.7/barrel, US $159.7/barrel, US $191.7/barrel, US $231.3/barrel, US $255.7/barrel and US $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical, economic, inflation, overseas uncertainty and epidemic risks</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/t1KM8XJ5VQ_rhYl-p6SfcA\">宏观闻涛声</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/t1KM8XJ5VQ_rhYl-p6SfcA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137319987","content_text":"如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。我们讨论了当前原油市场经历的八次主要地缘冲击，包括：古巴危机、第一次石油危机、第二次石油危机、第三次石油危机，北约轰炸南联盟、格鲁吉亚冲突、克里米亚危机，和当前的乌克兰冲突。同时，对全球原油供需格局进行了分析。对于历次“地缘-原油”冲击，我们认为：主要有三种冲击响应类型。第一类，油价显著上行，幅度可达150%-200%左右。第二类，油价月线上行后回落，回撤幅度可达40%-60%左右。第三类，油价短线波动，长期影响不显著。对于当前和下一阶段全球原油供需格局，我们认为：当前原油存在供需缺口，地缘博弈、产业链扰动和潜在的制裁都影响了这一缺口的回补，缺口负担的分布是不均的，缺口修复的进程高度受地缘形势影响。对于此次乌克兰冲突冲击的可能后续发展路径，我们认为：（1）在冲突得到实质解决前，油价难以显著回落、持续面临上行压力，这增大了全球、尤其是美国的近期通胀风险。（2）虽然我们预计全球或将面临更高的通胀压力和经济风险，但并不意味着我国通胀和利率面临同比例更高的上行风险，事实上，可能我国年线层面的利率上行压力在相对弱化。（3）最后，对于下一阶段原油价格走势，我们分场景展望，并给出技术面点位：i）当前的原油价格易上难下，整体是受到地缘冲突和供需缺口双重支撑的；ii）如此次冲突能在4-5月前得到有效和解，则原油价格仍有可能回落到60-90美元/桶的较低位区间；iii）如此次冲突在5月左右得到部分和解，例如仅军事行动趋缓，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至160-190美元/桶的高位区间；iv）如此次冲突在5月以后仍在较激烈进行，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至190-230美元/桶的历史记录水平；v）无论何种走势，原油价格向上和向下的斐波那契技术面关键点位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。1 前言：原油价格走向何方？2022年2月乌克兰冲突爆发以来，全球原油价格持续上行，截至3月9日，已推升至超过120美元/桶水平。我们认为，当前的原油价格较快上涨，主要受地缘冲突和供需缺口双重因素推动，有一定合理性，但也面临较高波动性和高度不确定性。如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。2 历史上的地缘冲突冲与原油价格走势本部分考量历史上“地缘冲突-原油价格”的冲击响应模式，并基于历史模式，建立对本轮原油价格冲击响应模式的走势预期框架。2.1 当前原油市场经历的八次主要地缘冲突综合考虑对原油市场的影响和地缘冲突的烈度，二战以后建立的当前原油市场，至少经历过八次较显著的地缘冲突，分别是：古巴危机、第一次石油危机、第二次石油危机、第三次石油危机，北约轰炸南联盟、格鲁吉亚冲突、克里米亚危机，和当前的乌克兰冲突。我们简单概述历次地缘冲突，为我们后续对“地缘冲突-原油价格”影响模式的分类提供基础，主要关注地缘冲突的：持续时长、影响区域、对抗烈度及解决形式。（1）古巴危机主要爆发阶段/时间：1962年8月-10月，持续约3个月。主要影响国家/地区：美国、前苏联、古巴，影响加勒比海地区，非全球原油主产区。主要冲突/解决形式：导弹和核武器部署问题，美国提升战备等级至II级，和平解决、没有公开发生热战。（2）第一次石油危机/第四次中东战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1973年10月-1974年3月，持续约6个月。主要影响国家/地区：埃及等中东地区阿拉伯国家、以色列、美国、前苏联，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区，OPEC在1973年10月宣布对部分国家石油禁运。主要冲突/解决形式：参与国较多，短期烈度较高的局部战争，美国提升战备等级至III级，热战后重新划定国界和领土。（3）第二次石油危机/伊朗革命/两伊战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1979年1月-1981年2月，持续约26个月。主要影响国家/地区：伊朗、伊拉克、美国、前苏联，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区大国冲突，较高烈度的局部战争，热战后持续处于敌对状态。（4）第三次石油危机/海湾战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1990年8月-1991年3月，持续约8个月。主要影响国家/地区：伊拉克、美国、科威特，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区冲突，短期局部战争，美国提升战备等级至II级，以轻微代价重创伊拉克，军事上取得压倒性优势，伊拉克接受联合国决议撤军。（5）北约轰炸南联盟/科索沃战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1999年3月-6月，持续约4个月。主要影响国家/地区：前南联盟、美国、北约，影响巴尔干地区，进一步影响中东欧地区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区冲突，短期局部战争，美国为首的北约在军事上取得压倒性优势，前南联盟于战后解体。（6）格鲁吉亚冲突主要爆发阶段/时间：2008年8月，持续约1个月。主要影响国家/地区：格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。主要冲突/解决形式：短期局部冲突，俄罗斯在军事上取得压倒性优势，俄罗斯宣布承认部分地区独立，美国和北约不予承认。（7）克里米亚危机主要爆发阶段/时间：2014年3月，持续约1个月。主要影响国家/地区：克里米亚、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。主要冲突/解决形式：短期局部动荡，未有大规模军事冲突，俄罗斯宣布承认部分地区加入俄罗斯，美国和北约不予承认。（8）乌克兰冲突（截至2022年3月9日）截至目前，主要爆发阶段/时间：2022年2月-至今，尚在军事冲突中。截止目前，主要影响国家/地区：乌克兰、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。截至目前，主要冲突/解决形式：地区军事冲突和谈判同时进行中，俄罗斯提升战略武器备战等级进入特殊状态，美国提升战备等级至III级，美国和欧盟宣布禁止俄罗斯部分机构使用SWIFT系统等制裁，美国宣布禁止俄罗斯原油和天然气进口，但截至目前德国等欧盟国家尚未明确宣布跟进。2.2 地缘冲突下的原油价格走势基于上文对冲突持续时长、影响区域、对抗烈度及解决形式的分析，当考量同期和其后24个月的原油价格走势，我们认为，“地缘冲突-原油价格”的冲击响应走势，主要可以分为三类：（1）第一类，油价显著上行，累计上行幅度可达150%-200%左右。典型代表为，第一次、第二次石油危机和北约轰炸南联盟。典型特征为，皆有烈度较高的军事冲突、或升级为局部战争，冲突持续时间至少超过4个月，冲突影响地区涉及原油供给，同时，部分存在原油出口国禁运推升油价情况。（2）第二类，油价在事件爆发1-3个月内开始回落，之后显著回落，累计回落幅度可达40%-60%左右。典型代表为，第三次石油危机、格鲁吉亚冲突和克里米亚危机。典型特征为，事件相对较快取得阶段性和解、或军事冲突一方存在压倒性优势、或烈度皆整体可控，同时，部分存在货币主导国平抑油价情况。（3）第三类，油价虽有下行，但没有大幅波动，长期影响不显著。典型代表为，古巴危机。典型特征为，事件突发性较强，虽然短线压力较大、但解决相对较快（1个月内），没有发生的主要原油产区，没有升级为热战。综合三种类型，将相应“地缘冲击-油价响应”走势等比例映射至当前乌克兰时间，如图表5中的不同场景走势，我们认为：（1）当前的原油价格走势，已初步偏离了历史上“得到短期快速解决”的走势模式，正在展现继续上行压力。历史上，主要的三次“快速解决-油价回落”模式，即情景0古巴危机、情景5格鲁吉亚冲突和情景6克里米亚危机，均已经与当前的原油价格走势出现一定幅度背离。（2）下一阶段油价走势，历史模式看，高度取决于是否能在3-4个月内，即3月至5月期间，取得和解。历史上，如能在3-4个月内取得和解，则有可能走出情景3第三次石油危机相似走势，油价从6月起逐步回落，吐回前期涨幅。（3）历史模式看，如本次冲突无法在至迟5月之前取得和解，则油价将可能走出累计100%-200%左右的显著涨幅。即，参照历史上的情景1第一次石油危机、情景2第二次石油危机和情景4北约轰炸南联盟，当映射到本次乌克兰冲击，油价将可能在2022年中即升破160美元/桶，在年末升至190-230美元/桶水平。（4）我们同时测算了基于历史上历次冲击响应波动幅度的斐波那契分位，并折算为本轮对应的技术面压力阻力位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。3 当前原油供需格局和可能的俄罗斯原油禁运影响在上节考察原油价格的地缘冲击响应后，本节考察当前的全球原油供需基本面，以及地缘冲突的重要参与方俄罗斯的可能原油市场影响。3.1 原油供给：相对不足当前，考查全球原油总供给情况，可以发现：（1）供给侧整体尚未完全恢复。从全球原油日产量看，当前全球总供给仍一定幅度低于2019年新冠疫情前水平。（2）俄罗斯是重要原油生产国，近期其面临的局势，对未来供给带来较高不确定。从全球生产份额看，截至2021年末，俄罗斯约为11.4%，伊朗约为3.6%，美国约为20.3%。（3）美国已基本实现原油自给自足，其后续原油政策对未来供给带来较高不确定。截至2021年末，美国自有原油生产量已超过本国原油消费量的90%，从2012年首次升破50%后，美国原油消费自给率持续提升。3.2 原油需求：缺口和库存下行当前，考查全球原油需求情况，可以发现：（1）需求超出供给，为油价上行提供了基本面支持。2021年以来，全球总需求持续高于总供给，缺口持续的时间与幅度皆已达到或接近历史记录水平。过往经验看，历次需求超出，供给缺口时期，原油价格皆以上行为主。（2）乌克兰冲击的或将进一步增加当前原油供需错位。本次乌克兰冲突，短线主要冲击原油生产侧，叠加前期产业链扰动，带来短线进一步供需失衡压力。但也应注意，随油价上行，潜在的供给促进和需求抑制效应何时可带来缺口回补，需后续观察。（3）原油库存低位情况显著。主要原油消费国库存大多处于去化和低库存状态，进一步推升了原油的补库存需求。3.3 俄罗斯的主要贸易格局（1）俄罗斯的出口产品构成，较集中于原油等大宗商品俄罗斯的出口，主要以大宗商品为主，是原油、天然气、铝钢等金属、小麦、化肥等领域的重要出口国。按出口金额，前15大出口品，分别为：1~5：原油、石油产品、天然气、机械和工具、柴油；6-10：液体燃料、铁类金属、煤炭、生铝、半成品碳钢；11-15：小麦及混合麦、扁碳钢、加工木材、混合肥料、无机氮肥。（2）俄罗斯的贸易往来，以欧洲和亚洲地区为主如图表12和图表13，截至2021年底：我国和德国，是俄罗斯份额占比最高的贸易伙伴国，分别占俄罗斯进出口贸易总额的17.9%和7.3%；美国和英国，占俄罗斯净出口贸易份额皆未超过5%，分别为4.4%和3.4%；亚太经合组织（APEC）、欧盟（EU）和独联体（CIS），是俄罗斯最主要的三个贸易伙伴组织，即俄罗斯贸易往来以欧洲和亚洲地区为主。3.4 可能的对俄原油出口制裁的影响北京时间3月9日，美联社消息，美国总统拜登宣布禁止美国进口俄罗斯原油和天然气等产品，截至下午14.00，英国表示将考虑跟进，德国等欧洲大陆国家尚未有明确表态。（1）相对于美英，德国和法国等欧盟国家加入原油禁运的成本更高从原油自给率看，美国和英国的原油自给率皆在90%左右，如进一步扩大生产，有能力将自给率提升至100%以上——英国历史上原油自给率曾较长期高于100%，当前美国页岩油生产仍低于2019年新冠疫情前水平，有一定增产空间。（2）俄罗斯原油出口量较大，如禁运，对市场较显著的短线冲击难以避免，但从全球总产能层面，不考虑地缘因素和运输成本，美国仍有可能对供给缺口进行平抑。当前，俄罗斯原油产量约在1100万桶/日，出口规模约在400-700万桶/日，无论以总产量、或出口量看，对全球原油供给、或出口的份额占比，都在约11%左右。在最极端情况的假设下，如完全禁运，则全球原油日消费将新增400-700万桶/日的缺口，约占全球原油日消费总量的4.5%-7.9%。当前，仍受美国制裁的伊朗和委内瑞拉，其原油出口，分别比制裁前低约150-200万桶/日和200-250万桶/日。沙特方面，原油出口比新冠疫情前仍低约100万桶/日。美国方面，其自身原油出口从2016年的不到60万桶/日，上行到当前的超过300万桶/日，并仍有增产空间。但仍应注意，潜在的原油禁运的影响分布是不均衡的，相对于英美，德国、法国等欧洲大陆国家将承受更多的潜在风险和压力。4 小结与展望在本文的最后部分，我们总结“地缘-原油”冲击的潜在市场影响模式和规律，并基于当前形势，对后续可能的原油价格走势，及其潜在的衍生影响，进行展望。4.1 “地缘-原油”冲击后的可能市场模式如图表18，当回顾历次“地缘-原油”冲击后的市场模式，可以发现：（1）冲击后的原油价格走势和美国加息节奏高度相关。进一步的，由于原油价格相对美联储利率决议的更高频属性，实际操作中可以将原油价格作为议息决议的前瞻指标——从地缘冲击的视角，当冲击发生后，年线内的油价走势和目标利率调整方向高度一致。（2）冲击后的美国10Y国债收益率走势与原油价格走势高度相关。在剔除避险情绪等日线层面的短线扰动后，原油价格的月线走势在冲击发生后的年度，和收益率走向高度一致。（3）多数冲突发生的当年或下一年，美国经济增速皆有下移，甚至跌入衰退区间。进一步的，当回溯冲突发生当年和下一年的全球经济增长时，多数时候、多数国家和地区是的实际增长结果不及冲突发生前的预期数值，但应注意，这一下调的分布往往是不均的——冲突参与方和所在地域经济体往往较显著下修，其次是经济和贸易关联方，再次是其它受影响较小的国家和地区。4.2 当前乌克兰“地缘-原油”冲击的可能后续发展综合考虑历次的“地缘-原油”冲击的影响模式，对于当前乌克兰冲突，事件冲击的可能后续发展路径，我们预期如下：（1）在冲突得到实质解决前，油价难以显著回落、持续面临上行压力，这增大了全球、尤其是美国的近期通胀风险。本次冲突，俄罗斯的主要诉求与美国立场仍有较显著分歧。目前，随地区军事冲突的持续时间增加，油价正在远离“短期冲突-油价回落”的模式，如不能在未来1-3个月内得到和解，则转入“持续冲突-油价上行”模式的概率在上行——同时，不同于以往情况，此次美国依赖其在全球金融、贸易和科技的主导地位，正在对俄罗斯的金融、贸易和科技等诸领域进行全方位制裁和禁运——这一制裁与对抗，进一步影响了全球产业链和生产体系，干扰了全球经济增长和通胀环境。（2）虽然我们预计全球或将面临更高的通胀压力和经济风险，但并不意味着我国通胀和利率面临同比例更高的上行风险，事实上，可能我国年线层面的利率上行压力在相对弱化。由于冲突对全球产业链的扰乱，无论原油价格是否上行，冲突本身都更大概率会削弱1-2年内的局部和全球经济增长。作为全球最大生产国，我国将面临相对更小的通胀风险，由于外部环境的更高不确定性，政策将更加注重“稳就是进”和“以我为主”，降低企业实际融资成本的考量和稳健的人民币币值，将提供更好的货币政策和利率空间。（3）最后，回到原油价格走势，我们认为：i）当前的原油价格易上难下，整体是受到地缘冲突和供需缺口双重支撑的；ii）如此次冲突能在4-5月前得到有效和解，则原油价格仍有可能回落到60-90美元/桶的较低位区间；iii）如此次冲突在5月左右得到部分和解，例如仅军事行动趋缓，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至160-190美元/桶的高位区间；iv）如此次冲突在5月以后仍在较激烈进行，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至190-230美元/桶的历史记录水平；v）无论何种走势，原油价格向上和向下的斐波那契技术面关键点位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。风险提示：地缘、经济、通胀、海外不确定性和疫情风险","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9038476956,"gmtCreate":1646904897821,"gmtModify":1676534175374,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578436425687491","idStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038476956","repostId":"1137319987","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137319987","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646904185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137319987?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-10 17:23","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137319987","media":"宏观闻涛声","summary":"如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。我们讨论了当前原油市场经历的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>How to understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b></p><p>Under the current complex and ever-changing global environment, based on the analysis of geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structure, we look forward to the potential trend of crude oil prices and the possible impact on inflation and interest rates. We discuss eight major geopolitical shocks currently experienced by the crude oil market, including: the Cuban crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgian conflict, the Crimea crisis, and the current Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, the global crude oil supply and demand pattern is analyzed.</p><p><b>Regarding previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we believe that:</b></p><p>There are three main types of shock response. In the first category, oil prices have risen significantly, with a range of about 150%-200%. In the second category, oil prices fall back after rising on a monthly basis, and the pullback/retracement can reach about 40%-60%. The third category is that oil prices fluctuate in the short term, but the long-term impact is not significant.</p><p><b>Regarding the current and next stage of global crude oil supply and demand pattern, we believe that:</b></p><p>At present, there is a gap between supply and demand of crude oil. Geopolitical games, industrial chain disturbances and potential sanctions have all affected the filling of this gap. The distribution of the burden of the gap is uneven, and the process of gap repair is highly affected by the geopolitical situation.</p><p><b>Regarding the possible follow-up development path of the impact of the conflict in Ukraine, we believe that:</b></p><p>(1) Before the conflict is substantially resolved, it is difficult for oil prices to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the recent inflation risk in the world, especially in the United States.</p><p>(2) Although we expect that the world will face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that China's inflation and interest rates will face higher upward risks in the same proportion. In fact, it may be that the upward pressure on interest rates at the annual level in China is relatively weakening.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, for the next stage of crude oil price trend, we look forward to it by scenario and give technical points: i) The current crude oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall,</b>The overall situation is supported by geopolitical conflicts and gaps between supply and demand;<b>ii) So that the conflict can be effectively settled before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the low range of 60-90 US dollars/barrel;<b>iii) So that conflict was partially settled around May,</b>For example, if only military operations slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of US $160-190/barrel at the annual level;<b>iv) Such conflict is still intense after May,</b>Then crude oil prices may push up to the historical record level of 190-230 US dollars/barrel at the annual level;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci technical points of crude oil prices upward and downward, from low to high, are:</b>US $24.1/barrel, US $63.7/barrel, US $88.1/barrel, US $127.7/barrel, US $159.7/barrel, US $191.7/barrel, US $231.3/barrel, US $255.7/barrel and US $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>1 Foreword: Where are crude oil prices going?</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, global crude oil prices have continued to rise, and as of March 9, they have been pushed to more than US $120/barrel. We believe that the current rapid rise in crude oil prices is mainly driven by the dual factors of geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand gaps. It is reasonable, but it also faces high volatility and uncertainty.</p><p><b>How to understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b>Under the current complex and ever-changing global environment, based on the analysis of geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structure, we look forward to the potential trend of crude oil prices and the possible impact on inflation and interest rates.</p><p><b>2 Historical geopolitical conflicts and crude oil price trends</b></p><p>This part considers the shock response model of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\" in history, and based on the historical model, establishes a trend expectation framework for this round of crude oil price shock response model.</p><p><b>2.1 Eight major geopolitical conflicts currently experienced by the crude oil market</b></p><p>Considering the impact on the crude oil market and the intensity of geopolitical conflicts, the current crude oil market established after World War II has experienced at least eight significant geopolitical conflicts, namely: the Cuban crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgian conflict, the Crimean crisis, and the current Ukrainian conflict.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73108c9a5c02abfc82423dbfe161291\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We briefly summarize previous geopolitical conflicts to provide the basis for our subsequent classification of the impact model of \"geopolitical conflicts-crude oil prices\", mainly focusing on the geopolitical conflicts: duration, influence area, intensity of confrontation and resolution form.</p><p><b>(1) The Cuban crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August-October 1962, lasting about 3 months.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: the United States, the former Soviet Union, Cuba, affecting the Caribbean region, which is not the main global crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: The deployment of missiles and nuclear weapons, the United States upgraded its combat readiness level to Level II, and it was resolved peacefully without open hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/829b034b3db8ad9969e4b66be32a80a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The first oil crisis/the fourth Middle East war</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: October 1973-March 1974, lasting approximately 6 months.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Egypt and other Arab countries in the Middle East, Israel, the United States, and the former Soviet Union, affecting the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil producing area. OPEC announced an oil embargo on some countries in October 1973.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: local wars with more participating countries and high short-term intensity, the United States upgraded its combat readiness level to Level III, and redrawn its national boundaries and territories after the hot war.</p><p><b>(3) Second Oil Crisis/Iranian Revolution/Iran-Iraq War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: January 1979-February 1981, lasting approximately 26 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Iran, Iraq, the United States, and the former Soviet Union, affecting the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional power conflicts, high-intensity local wars, and continuous hostilities after hot wars.</p><p><b>(4) Third Oil Crisis/Gulf War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 1990-March 1991, lasting about 8 months.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Iraq, the United States, Kuwait, affecting the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflict, short-term local war, the United States upgraded its combat readiness level to Level II, severely damaged Iraq at a slight cost, gained an overwhelming military advantage, and Iraq accepted the United Nations resolution to withdraw its troops.</p><p><b>(5) NATO bombing the Yugoslavia/Kosovo war</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March-June 1999, lasting approximately 4 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, the United States, NATO, affecting the Balkans and further affecting Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflicts, short-term local wars, NATO led by the United States gained an overwhelming military advantage, and the former Yugoslavia disintegrated after the war.</p><p><b>(6) Georgia Conflict</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 2008, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Georgia, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: short-term local conflicts, Russia gains an overwhelming military advantage, Russia announces that it recognizes the independence of some regions, but the United States and NATO do not recognize it.</p><p><b>(7) Crimean crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March 2014, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Crimea, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: short-term local turmoil, no large-scale military conflict, Russia announced that it recognized some areas to join Russia, but the United States and NATO did not recognize it.</p><p><b>(8) Ukraine conflict (as of March 9, 2022)</b></p><p>As of now, the main outbreak stage/time: February 2022-present, still in military conflict.</p><p>Up to now, it mainly affects countries/regions: Ukraine, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Up to now, the main forms of conflict/resolution: regional military conflicts and negotiations are ongoing at the same time, Russia has upgraded its strategic weapons readiness level into a special state, the United States has upgraded its combat readiness level to level III, and the United States and the European Union have announced sanctions such as banning some Russian institutions from using the SWIFT system. The United States has announced a ban on Russian crude oil and natural gas imports, but so far Germany and other EU countries have not explicitly announced follow-up.</p><p><b>2.2 Crude oil price trend under geopolitical conflicts</b></p><p>Based on the above analysis of the duration of the conflict, the area of influence, the intensity of confrontation and the form of resolution, when considering the crude oil price trend during the same period and the next 24 months, we believe that the impact response trend of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\" can mainly be divided into three categories:</p><p><b>(1) In the first category, oil prices have risen significantly, with a cumulative upward range of about 150%-200%.</b>Typical representatives are the first and second oil crises and NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia. The typical characteristics are that there are high-intensity military conflicts, or they escalate into local wars. The conflicts last for at least 4 months. The areas affected by the conflicts involve crude oil supply. At the same time, some crude oil exporting countries have embargoes pushing up oil prices.</p><p><b>(2) In the second category, the oil price began to fall within 1-3 months after the outbreak of the incident, and then dropped significantly, with a cumulative decline of about 40%-60%.</b>Typical representatives are the third oil crisis, the Georgian conflict and the Crimean crisis. The typical characteristics are that the incident achieves phased reconciliation relatively quickly, or one party to the military conflict has an overwhelming advantage, or the intensity is generally controllable. At the same time, some currency-dominated countries stabilize oil prices.</p><p><b>(3) In the third category, although the oil price has declined, it has not fluctuated greatly, and the long-term impact is not significant. The typical example is the Cuban crisis.</b>The typical feature is that the incident is highly sudden. Although the short-term pressure is high, it is resolved relatively quickly (within one month). The major crude oil producing areas that did not occur have not escalated into hot wars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8abded75c09dda6d29b0c3a627f31c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Combining the three types and mapping the corresponding \"geopolitical shock-oil price response\" trends to the current Ukrainian time in equal proportions, as shown in the different scenario trends in Figure 5, we believe that:</b></p><p><b>(1) The current trend of crude oil prices has initially deviated from the historical trend pattern of \"short-term quick solution\", and is showing continued upward pressure.</b>Historically, the three main \"quick resolution-oil price fall\" models, namely, Scenario 0 Cuba crisis, Scenario 5 Georgia conflict and Scenario 6 Crimea crisis, have all deviated from the current crude oil price trend to a certain extent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of oil prices in the next stage, from the historical pattern, highly depends on whether reconciliation can be achieved within 3-4 months, that is, from March to May.</b>Historically, if reconciliation can be achieved within 3-4 months, it is possible to get out of the similar trend of the third oil crisis in Scenario 3. Oil prices have gradually fallen since June, giving back their previous gains.</p><p><b>(3) From the historical model, if this conflict cannot be settled before May at the latest, the oil price will probably go out of the cumulative significant increase of about 100%-200%.</b>That is, referring to the first oil crisis in Scenario 1, the second oil crisis in Scenario 2 and the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in Scenario 4 in history, when mapped to this Ukraine impact, oil prices may rise above US $160/barrel in mid-2022. barrel, rising to US $190-230/barrel at the end of the year.</p><p><b>(4) At the same time, we calculated the Fibonacci quantile based on the fluctuation amplitude of previous shock response in history, and converted it into the corresponding technical pressure resistance level of this round, from low to high, respectively:</b>US $24.1/barrel, US $63.7/barrel, US $88.1/barrel, US $127.7/barrel, US $159.7/barrel, US $191.7/barrel, US $231.3/barrel, US $255.7/barrel and US $295.3/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea70ca6182eb668ba0d534bbcf7652c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3 The current crude oil supply and demand pattern and the possible impact of the Russian crude oil embargo</b></p><p>After examining the geopolitical impact response of crude oil prices in the previous section, this section examines the current fundamentals of global crude oil supply and demand, as well as the possible crude oil market impact of Russia, an important participant in geopolitical conflicts.</p><p><b>3.1 Crude oil supply: relatively insufficient</b></p><p>At present, examining the total global crude oil supply situation, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) The supply side as a whole has not fully recovered.</b>From the perspective of global daily crude oil production, the current total global supply is still lower than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level in 2019 to a certain extent.</p><p><b>(2) Russia is an important crude oil producer, and the recent situation it is facing has brought high uncertainty to future supply.</b>In terms of global production share, as of the end of 2021, Russia is approximately 11.4%, Iran is approximately 3.6%, and the United States is approximately 20.3%.</p><p><b>(3) The United States has basically achieved self-sufficiency in crude oil, and its subsequent crude oil policy has brought high uncertainty to future supply.</b>As of the end of 2021, the U.S. 's own crude oil production has exceeded 90% of its own crude oil consumption. Since it rose above 50% for the first time in 2012, the U.S. crude oil consumption self-sufficiency rate has continued to increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d39c78642295ae419afce2fc3bf7807\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Crude oil demand: gap and inventory decline</b></p><p>Currently, examining the global crude oil demand situation, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) Demand exceeds supply, providing fundamental support for the upward trend of oil prices.</b>Since 2021, global aggregate demand has continued to be higher than total supply, and the duration and magnitude of the gap have reached or approached historical record levels. Judging from past experience, during previous periods of exceeding demand and supply gap, crude oil prices have been dominated by the above lines.</p><p><b>(2) The impact of Ukraine may further increase the current dislocation of crude oil supply and demand.</b>This conflict in Ukraine will mainly impact the crude oil production side in the short term, superimposed on the disturbance of the early industrial chain, bringing further short-term supply and demand imbalance pressure. However, it should also be noted that as oil prices rise, when the potential supply promotion and demand suppression effects can bring about gap filling requires follow-up observation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15988b0a0859f2d0fd2b47d960a2ed4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) The low level of crude oil inventory is obvious.</b>Most of the inventories in major crude oil consuming countries are in a state of depletion and low inventory, further pushing up the demand for crude oil replenishment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946fa6e3a5e32bd7965cfa7ced73789a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 Russia's main trade patterns</b></p><p><b>(1) The composition of Russia's export products is more concentrated in bulk commodities such as crude oil</b></p><p>Russia's exports are mainly bulk commodities, and it is an important exporter of crude oil, natural gas, aluminum and steel and other metals, wheat, fertilizers and other fields. According to the export value, the top 15 export products are: 1 ~ 5: crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, machinery and tools, diesel oil; 6-10: Liquid fuel, ferrous metal, coal, raw aluminum, semi-finished carbon steel; 11-15: Wheat and mixed wheat, flat carbon steel, processed wood, mixed fertilizer, inorganic nitrogen fertilizer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b2df830c36875d2bd3fadf0218941ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's trade exchanges are mainly in Europe and Asia</b></p><p>As shown in Figure 12 and Figure 13, as of the end of 2021: my country and Germany are the trading partners with the highest share of Russia, accounting for 17.9% and 7.3% of Russia's total import and export trade respectively; The United States and the United Kingdom accounted for less than 5% of Russia's net export trade, accounting for 4.4% and 3.4% respectively; Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), European Union (EU) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are Russia's three most important trading partner organizations, that is, Russia's trade is mainly in Europe and Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0037bc51640a5aeeeb0204be0ea9115d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.4 The impact of possible sanctions on Russian crude oil exports</b></p><p>On March 9, Beijing time, the Associated Press reported that US President Biden announced a ban on the import of Russian crude oil, natural gas and other products to the United States. As of 14.00 pm, the United Kingdom stated that it would consider following up, while Germany and other continental European countries have not yet made a clear statement.</p><p><b>(1) Compared with the United States and Britain, the cost of EU countries such as Germany and France to join the crude oil embargo is higher</b></p><p>From the perspective of crude oil self-sufficiency rate, the crude oil self-sufficiency rate of both the United States and the United Kingdom is around 90%. If production is further expanded, they have the ability to increase the self-sufficiency rate to more than 100%-the crude oil self-sufficiency rate of the United Kingdom has been higher than 100% for a long time in history. The current U.S. shale oil production is still lower than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level in 2019, and there is some room for production increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596863f0c6bc489538603d9545b511a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's crude oil export volume is relatively large, such as an embargo, which will inevitably have a significant short-term impact on the market. However, from the perspective of total global production capacity, regardless of geographical factors and transportation costs, it is still possible for the United States to stabilize the supply gap.</b></p><p>Currently, Russia's crude oil production is about 11 million barrels per day, and its export scale is about 4-7 million barrels per day. Regardless of total production or export volume, its share of global crude oil supply or export is about 11%. Under the assumption of the most extreme situation, if there is a complete embargo, the global daily crude oil consumption will increase by 4-7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 4.5%-7.9% of the total global daily crude oil consumption.</p><p>Currently, the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, which are still subject to U.S. sanctions, are about 1.5-2 million barrels per day and 2-2.5 million barrels per day lower than before the sanctions, respectively. In Saudi Arabia, crude oil exports are still about 1 million barrels per day lower than before COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, its own crude oil exports have risen from less than 600,000 barrels per day in 2016 to more than 3 million barrels per day at present, and there is still room to increase production.</p><p>However, it should still be noted that the impact of the potential crude oil embargo is unevenly distributed. Compared with the United Kingdom and the United States, continental European countries such as Germany and France will bear more potential risks and pressures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/266aa2ba8a612e5bfcfae562030691c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4 Summary and Outlook</b></p><p>In the last part of this article, we summarize the potential market impact patterns and laws of the \"geo-crude oil\" impact, and based on the current situation, we look forward to the possible subsequent crude oil price trends and their potential derivative impacts.</p><p><b>4.1 Possible market models after the impact of \"geo-crude oil\"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fcc254e66fe9f0308cf7c2503d5914\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As shown in Figure 18, when reviewing the market pattern after previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) The trend of crude oil prices after the impact is highly correlated with the rhythm of U.S. rate hike.</b>Furthermore, due to the higher frequency nature of crude oil prices than the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, crude oil prices can be used as a forward-looking indicator of interest rate decisions in actual operations-from the perspective of geopolitical shocks, when the shocks occur, the oil price trend within the annual line and The target interest rate adjustment direction is highly consistent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of US 10Y Treasury Bond yields after the shock is highly correlated with the trend of crude oil prices.</b>After excluding short-term disturbances at the daily level such as risk aversion, the monthly trend of crude oil prices is highly consistent with the trend of yields in the year after the impact.</p><p><b>(3) In the year or the next year when most conflicts occurred, the economic growth rate of the United States moved down, or even fell into the recession range.</b>Furthermore, when looking back at the global economic growth in the year and the next year of the conflict, most of the time, the actual growth results of most countries and regions are lower than the expected value before the conflict, but it should be noted that the distribution of this downward adjustment is often uneven-conflict participants and regional economies are often significantly revised down, followed by economic and trade related parties, and then other less affected countries and regions.</p><p><b>4.2 Possible subsequent developments of the current \"geo-crude oil\" impact in Ukraine</b></p><p><b>Considering the impact patterns of previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we expect the possible subsequent development path of the current Ukrainian conflict and the impact of the event as follows:</b></p><p><b>(1) Before the conflict is substantially resolved, it is difficult for oil prices to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the recent inflation risk in the world, especially in the United States.</b>In this conflict, there are still significant differences between Russia's main demands and the position of the United States. At present, with the increase of the duration of regional military conflicts, oil prices are moving away from the mode of \"short-term conflict-oil price falling\". If they can't be reconciled in the next 1-3 months, the probability of shifting to the mode of \"continuous conflict-oil price rising\" is on the rise. At the same time, unlike the past situation, the United States is imposing all-round sanctions and embargoes on Russia's finance, trade and science and technology, relying on its dominant position in global finance, trade and science and technology.</p><p><b>(2) Although we expect that the world will face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that China's inflation and interest rates will face higher upward risks in the same proportion. In fact, it may be that the upward pressure on interest rates at the annual level in China is relatively weakening.</b>As conflicts disrupt the global industrial chain, regardless of whether crude oil prices rise or not, the conflict itself is more likely to weaken local and global economic growth within 1-2 years. As the world's largest producer, my country will face relatively smaller inflation risks. Due to the higher uncertainty of the external environment, policies will pay more attention to the consideration of \"stability is progress\" and \"self-oriented\" to reduce the actual financing costs of enterprises. and a stable RMB value will provide better monetary policy and interest rate space.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, returning to the trend of crude oil prices, we believe that: i) the current crude oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall,</b>The overall situation is supported by geopolitical conflicts and gaps between supply and demand;<b>ii) So that the conflict can be effectively settled before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the low range of 60-90 US dollars/barrel;<b>iii) So that conflict was partially settled around May,</b>For example, if only military operations slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of US $160-190/barrel at the annual level;<b>iv) Such conflict is still intense after May,</b>Then crude oil prices may push up to the historical record level of 190-230 US dollars/barrel at the annual level;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci technical points of crude oil prices upward and downward, from low to high, are:</b>US $24.1/barrel, US $63.7/barrel, US $88.1/barrel, US $127.7/barrel, US $159.7/barrel, US $191.7/barrel, US $231.3/barrel, US $255.7/barrel and US $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical, economic, inflation, overseas uncertainty and epidemic risks</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1646904227423","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere will crude oil prices go in the next stage?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">宏观闻涛声</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-10 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>How to understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b></p><p>Under the current complex and ever-changing global environment, based on the analysis of geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structure, we look forward to the potential trend of crude oil prices and the possible impact on inflation and interest rates. We discuss eight major geopolitical shocks currently experienced by the crude oil market, including: the Cuban crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgian conflict, the Crimea crisis, and the current Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, the global crude oil supply and demand pattern is analyzed.</p><p><b>Regarding previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we believe that:</b></p><p>There are three main types of shock response. In the first category, oil prices have risen significantly, with a range of about 150%-200%. In the second category, oil prices fall back after rising on a monthly basis, and the pullback/retracement can reach about 40%-60%. The third category is that oil prices fluctuate in the short term, but the long-term impact is not significant.</p><p><b>Regarding the current and next stage of global crude oil supply and demand pattern, we believe that:</b></p><p>At present, there is a gap between supply and demand of crude oil. Geopolitical games, industrial chain disturbances and potential sanctions have all affected the filling of this gap. The distribution of the burden of the gap is uneven, and the process of gap repair is highly affected by the geopolitical situation.</p><p><b>Regarding the possible follow-up development path of the impact of the conflict in Ukraine, we believe that:</b></p><p>(1) Before the conflict is substantially resolved, it is difficult for oil prices to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the recent inflation risk in the world, especially in the United States.</p><p>(2) Although we expect that the world will face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that China's inflation and interest rates will face higher upward risks in the same proportion. In fact, it may be that the upward pressure on interest rates at the annual level in China is relatively weakening.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, for the next stage of crude oil price trend, we look forward to it by scenario and give technical points: i) The current crude oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall,</b>The overall situation is supported by geopolitical conflicts and gaps between supply and demand;<b>ii) So that the conflict can be effectively settled before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the low range of 60-90 US dollars/barrel;<b>iii) So that conflict was partially settled around May,</b>For example, if only military operations slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of US $160-190/barrel at the annual level;<b>iv) Such conflict is still intense after May,</b>Then crude oil prices may push up to the historical record level of 190-230 US dollars/barrel at the annual level;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci technical points of crude oil prices upward and downward, from low to high, are:</b>US $24.1/barrel, US $63.7/barrel, US $88.1/barrel, US $127.7/barrel, US $159.7/barrel, US $191.7/barrel, US $231.3/barrel, US $255.7/barrel and US $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>1 Foreword: Where are crude oil prices going?</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, global crude oil prices have continued to rise, and as of March 9, they have been pushed to more than US $120/barrel. We believe that the current rapid rise in crude oil prices is mainly driven by the dual factors of geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand gaps. It is reasonable, but it also faces high volatility and uncertainty.</p><p><b>How to understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b>Under the current complex and ever-changing global environment, based on the analysis of geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structure, we look forward to the potential trend of crude oil prices and the possible impact on inflation and interest rates.</p><p><b>2 Historical geopolitical conflicts and crude oil price trends</b></p><p>This part considers the shock response model of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\" in history, and based on the historical model, establishes a trend expectation framework for this round of crude oil price shock response model.</p><p><b>2.1 Eight major geopolitical conflicts currently experienced by the crude oil market</b></p><p>Considering the impact on the crude oil market and the intensity of geopolitical conflicts, the current crude oil market established after World War II has experienced at least eight significant geopolitical conflicts, namely: the Cuban crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgian conflict, the Crimean crisis, and the current Ukrainian conflict.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73108c9a5c02abfc82423dbfe161291\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We briefly summarize previous geopolitical conflicts to provide the basis for our subsequent classification of the impact model of \"geopolitical conflicts-crude oil prices\", mainly focusing on the geopolitical conflicts: duration, influence area, intensity of confrontation and resolution form.</p><p><b>(1) The Cuban crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August-October 1962, lasting about 3 months.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: the United States, the former Soviet Union, Cuba, affecting the Caribbean region, which is not the main global crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: The deployment of missiles and nuclear weapons, the United States upgraded its combat readiness level to Level II, and it was resolved peacefully without open hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/829b034b3db8ad9969e4b66be32a80a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The first oil crisis/the fourth Middle East war</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: October 1973-March 1974, lasting approximately 6 months.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Egypt and other Arab countries in the Middle East, Israel, the United States, and the former Soviet Union, affecting the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil producing area. OPEC announced an oil embargo on some countries in October 1973.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: local wars with more participating countries and high short-term intensity, the United States upgraded its combat readiness level to Level III, and redrawn its national boundaries and territories after the hot war.</p><p><b>(3) Second Oil Crisis/Iranian Revolution/Iran-Iraq War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: January 1979-February 1981, lasting approximately 26 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Iran, Iraq, the United States, and the former Soviet Union, affecting the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional power conflicts, high-intensity local wars, and continuous hostilities after hot wars.</p><p><b>(4) Third Oil Crisis/Gulf War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 1990-March 1991, lasting about 8 months.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Iraq, the United States, Kuwait, affecting the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflict, short-term local war, the United States upgraded its combat readiness level to Level II, severely damaged Iraq at a slight cost, gained an overwhelming military advantage, and Iraq accepted the United Nations resolution to withdraw its troops.</p><p><b>(5) NATO bombing the Yugoslavia/Kosovo war</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March-June 1999, lasting approximately 4 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, the United States, NATO, affecting the Balkans and further affecting Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflicts, short-term local wars, NATO led by the United States gained an overwhelming military advantage, and the former Yugoslavia disintegrated after the war.</p><p><b>(6) Georgia Conflict</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 2008, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Georgia, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: short-term local conflicts, Russia gains an overwhelming military advantage, Russia announces that it recognizes the independence of some regions, but the United States and NATO do not recognize it.</p><p><b>(7) Crimean crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March 2014, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>Mainly affected countries/regions: Crimea, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: short-term local turmoil, no large-scale military conflict, Russia announced that it recognized some areas to join Russia, but the United States and NATO did not recognize it.</p><p><b>(8) Ukraine conflict (as of March 9, 2022)</b></p><p>As of now, the main outbreak stage/time: February 2022-present, still in military conflict.</p><p>Up to now, it mainly affects countries/regions: Ukraine, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Up to now, the main forms of conflict/resolution: regional military conflicts and negotiations are ongoing at the same time, Russia has upgraded its strategic weapons readiness level into a special state, the United States has upgraded its combat readiness level to level III, and the United States and the European Union have announced sanctions such as banning some Russian institutions from using the SWIFT system. The United States has announced a ban on Russian crude oil and natural gas imports, but so far Germany and other EU countries have not explicitly announced follow-up.</p><p><b>2.2 Crude oil price trend under geopolitical conflicts</b></p><p>Based on the above analysis of the duration of the conflict, the area of influence, the intensity of confrontation and the form of resolution, when considering the crude oil price trend during the same period and the next 24 months, we believe that the impact response trend of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\" can mainly be divided into three categories:</p><p><b>(1) In the first category, oil prices have risen significantly, with a cumulative upward range of about 150%-200%.</b>Typical representatives are the first and second oil crises and NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia. The typical characteristics are that there are high-intensity military conflicts, or they escalate into local wars. The conflicts last for at least 4 months. The areas affected by the conflicts involve crude oil supply. At the same time, some crude oil exporting countries have embargoes pushing up oil prices.</p><p><b>(2) In the second category, the oil price began to fall within 1-3 months after the outbreak of the incident, and then dropped significantly, with a cumulative decline of about 40%-60%.</b>Typical representatives are the third oil crisis, the Georgian conflict and the Crimean crisis. The typical characteristics are that the incident achieves phased reconciliation relatively quickly, or one party to the military conflict has an overwhelming advantage, or the intensity is generally controllable. At the same time, some currency-dominated countries stabilize oil prices.</p><p><b>(3) In the third category, although the oil price has declined, it has not fluctuated greatly, and the long-term impact is not significant. The typical example is the Cuban crisis.</b>The typical feature is that the incident is highly sudden. Although the short-term pressure is high, it is resolved relatively quickly (within one month). The major crude oil producing areas that did not occur have not escalated into hot wars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8abded75c09dda6d29b0c3a627f31c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Combining the three types and mapping the corresponding \"geopolitical shock-oil price response\" trends to the current Ukrainian time in equal proportions, as shown in the different scenario trends in Figure 5, we believe that:</b></p><p><b>(1) The current trend of crude oil prices has initially deviated from the historical trend pattern of \"short-term quick solution\", and is showing continued upward pressure.</b>Historically, the three main \"quick resolution-oil price fall\" models, namely, Scenario 0 Cuba crisis, Scenario 5 Georgia conflict and Scenario 6 Crimea crisis, have all deviated from the current crude oil price trend to a certain extent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of oil prices in the next stage, from the historical pattern, highly depends on whether reconciliation can be achieved within 3-4 months, that is, from March to May.</b>Historically, if reconciliation can be achieved within 3-4 months, it is possible to get out of the similar trend of the third oil crisis in Scenario 3. Oil prices have gradually fallen since June, giving back their previous gains.</p><p><b>(3) From the historical model, if this conflict cannot be settled before May at the latest, the oil price will probably go out of the cumulative significant increase of about 100%-200%.</b>That is, referring to the first oil crisis in Scenario 1, the second oil crisis in Scenario 2 and the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in Scenario 4 in history, when mapped to this Ukraine impact, oil prices may rise above US $160/barrel in mid-2022. barrel, rising to US $190-230/barrel at the end of the year.</p><p><b>(4) At the same time, we calculated the Fibonacci quantile based on the fluctuation amplitude of previous shock response in history, and converted it into the corresponding technical pressure resistance level of this round, from low to high, respectively:</b>US $24.1/barrel, US $63.7/barrel, US $88.1/barrel, US $127.7/barrel, US $159.7/barrel, US $191.7/barrel, US $231.3/barrel, US $255.7/barrel and US $295.3/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea70ca6182eb668ba0d534bbcf7652c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3 The current crude oil supply and demand pattern and the possible impact of the Russian crude oil embargo</b></p><p>After examining the geopolitical impact response of crude oil prices in the previous section, this section examines the current fundamentals of global crude oil supply and demand, as well as the possible crude oil market impact of Russia, an important participant in geopolitical conflicts.</p><p><b>3.1 Crude oil supply: relatively insufficient</b></p><p>At present, examining the total global crude oil supply situation, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) The supply side as a whole has not fully recovered.</b>From the perspective of global daily crude oil production, the current total global supply is still lower than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level in 2019 to a certain extent.</p><p><b>(2) Russia is an important crude oil producer, and the recent situation it is facing has brought high uncertainty to future supply.</b>In terms of global production share, as of the end of 2021, Russia is approximately 11.4%, Iran is approximately 3.6%, and the United States is approximately 20.3%.</p><p><b>(3) The United States has basically achieved self-sufficiency in crude oil, and its subsequent crude oil policy has brought high uncertainty to future supply.</b>As of the end of 2021, the U.S. 's own crude oil production has exceeded 90% of its own crude oil consumption. Since it rose above 50% for the first time in 2012, the U.S. crude oil consumption self-sufficiency rate has continued to increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d39c78642295ae419afce2fc3bf7807\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Crude oil demand: gap and inventory decline</b></p><p>Currently, examining the global crude oil demand situation, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) Demand exceeds supply, providing fundamental support for the upward trend of oil prices.</b>Since 2021, global aggregate demand has continued to be higher than total supply, and the duration and magnitude of the gap have reached or approached historical record levels. Judging from past experience, during previous periods of exceeding demand and supply gap, crude oil prices have been dominated by the above lines.</p><p><b>(2) The impact of Ukraine may further increase the current dislocation of crude oil supply and demand.</b>This conflict in Ukraine will mainly impact the crude oil production side in the short term, superimposed on the disturbance of the early industrial chain, bringing further short-term supply and demand imbalance pressure. However, it should also be noted that as oil prices rise, when the potential supply promotion and demand suppression effects can bring about gap filling requires follow-up observation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15988b0a0859f2d0fd2b47d960a2ed4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) The low level of crude oil inventory is obvious.</b>Most of the inventories in major crude oil consuming countries are in a state of depletion and low inventory, further pushing up the demand for crude oil replenishment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946fa6e3a5e32bd7965cfa7ced73789a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 Russia's main trade patterns</b></p><p><b>(1) The composition of Russia's export products is more concentrated in bulk commodities such as crude oil</b></p><p>Russia's exports are mainly bulk commodities, and it is an important exporter of crude oil, natural gas, aluminum and steel and other metals, wheat, fertilizers and other fields. According to the export value, the top 15 export products are: 1 ~ 5: crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, machinery and tools, diesel oil; 6-10: Liquid fuel, ferrous metal, coal, raw aluminum, semi-finished carbon steel; 11-15: Wheat and mixed wheat, flat carbon steel, processed wood, mixed fertilizer, inorganic nitrogen fertilizer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b2df830c36875d2bd3fadf0218941ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's trade exchanges are mainly in Europe and Asia</b></p><p>As shown in Figure 12 and Figure 13, as of the end of 2021: my country and Germany are the trading partners with the highest share of Russia, accounting for 17.9% and 7.3% of Russia's total import and export trade respectively; The United States and the United Kingdom accounted for less than 5% of Russia's net export trade, accounting for 4.4% and 3.4% respectively; Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), European Union (EU) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are Russia's three most important trading partner organizations, that is, Russia's trade is mainly in Europe and Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0037bc51640a5aeeeb0204be0ea9115d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.4 The impact of possible sanctions on Russian crude oil exports</b></p><p>On March 9, Beijing time, the Associated Press reported that US President Biden announced a ban on the import of Russian crude oil, natural gas and other products to the United States. As of 14.00 pm, the United Kingdom stated that it would consider following up, while Germany and other continental European countries have not yet made a clear statement.</p><p><b>(1) Compared with the United States and Britain, the cost of EU countries such as Germany and France to join the crude oil embargo is higher</b></p><p>From the perspective of crude oil self-sufficiency rate, the crude oil self-sufficiency rate of both the United States and the United Kingdom is around 90%. If production is further expanded, they have the ability to increase the self-sufficiency rate to more than 100%-the crude oil self-sufficiency rate of the United Kingdom has been higher than 100% for a long time in history. The current U.S. shale oil production is still lower than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level in 2019, and there is some room for production increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596863f0c6bc489538603d9545b511a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's crude oil export volume is relatively large, such as an embargo, which will inevitably have a significant short-term impact on the market. However, from the perspective of total global production capacity, regardless of geographical factors and transportation costs, it is still possible for the United States to stabilize the supply gap.</b></p><p>Currently, Russia's crude oil production is about 11 million barrels per day, and its export scale is about 4-7 million barrels per day. Regardless of total production or export volume, its share of global crude oil supply or export is about 11%. Under the assumption of the most extreme situation, if there is a complete embargo, the global daily crude oil consumption will increase by 4-7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 4.5%-7.9% of the total global daily crude oil consumption.</p><p>Currently, the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, which are still subject to U.S. sanctions, are about 1.5-2 million barrels per day and 2-2.5 million barrels per day lower than before the sanctions, respectively. In Saudi Arabia, crude oil exports are still about 1 million barrels per day lower than before COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, its own crude oil exports have risen from less than 600,000 barrels per day in 2016 to more than 3 million barrels per day at present, and there is still room to increase production.</p><p>However, it should still be noted that the impact of the potential crude oil embargo is unevenly distributed. Compared with the United Kingdom and the United States, continental European countries such as Germany and France will bear more potential risks and pressures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/266aa2ba8a612e5bfcfae562030691c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4 Summary and Outlook</b></p><p>In the last part of this article, we summarize the potential market impact patterns and laws of the \"geo-crude oil\" impact, and based on the current situation, we look forward to the possible subsequent crude oil price trends and their potential derivative impacts.</p><p><b>4.1 Possible market models after the impact of \"geo-crude oil\"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fcc254e66fe9f0308cf7c2503d5914\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As shown in Figure 18, when reviewing the market pattern after previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) The trend of crude oil prices after the impact is highly correlated with the rhythm of U.S. rate hike.</b>Furthermore, due to the higher frequency nature of crude oil prices than the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, crude oil prices can be used as a forward-looking indicator of interest rate decisions in actual operations-from the perspective of geopolitical shocks, when the shocks occur, the oil price trend within the annual line and The target interest rate adjustment direction is highly consistent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of US 10Y Treasury Bond yields after the shock is highly correlated with the trend of crude oil prices.</b>After excluding short-term disturbances at the daily level such as risk aversion, the monthly trend of crude oil prices is highly consistent with the trend of yields in the year after the impact.</p><p><b>(3) In the year or the next year when most conflicts occurred, the economic growth rate of the United States moved down, or even fell into the recession range.</b>Furthermore, when looking back at the global economic growth in the year and the next year of the conflict, most of the time, the actual growth results of most countries and regions are lower than the expected value before the conflict, but it should be noted that the distribution of this downward adjustment is often uneven-conflict participants and regional economies are often significantly revised down, followed by economic and trade related parties, and then other less affected countries and regions.</p><p><b>4.2 Possible subsequent developments of the current \"geo-crude oil\" impact in Ukraine</b></p><p><b>Considering the impact patterns of previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we expect the possible subsequent development path of the current Ukrainian conflict and the impact of the event as follows:</b></p><p><b>(1) Before the conflict is substantially resolved, it is difficult for oil prices to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the recent inflation risk in the world, especially in the United States.</b>In this conflict, there are still significant differences between Russia's main demands and the position of the United States. At present, with the increase of the duration of regional military conflicts, oil prices are moving away from the mode of \"short-term conflict-oil price falling\". If they can't be reconciled in the next 1-3 months, the probability of shifting to the mode of \"continuous conflict-oil price rising\" is on the rise. At the same time, unlike the past situation, the United States is imposing all-round sanctions and embargoes on Russia's finance, trade and science and technology, relying on its dominant position in global finance, trade and science and technology.</p><p><b>(2) Although we expect that the world will face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that China's inflation and interest rates will face higher upward risks in the same proportion. In fact, it may be that the upward pressure on interest rates at the annual level in China is relatively weakening.</b>As conflicts disrupt the global industrial chain, regardless of whether crude oil prices rise or not, the conflict itself is more likely to weaken local and global economic growth within 1-2 years. As the world's largest producer, my country will face relatively smaller inflation risks. Due to the higher uncertainty of the external environment, policies will pay more attention to the consideration of \"stability is progress\" and \"self-oriented\" to reduce the actual financing costs of enterprises. and a stable RMB value will provide better monetary policy and interest rate space.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, returning to the trend of crude oil prices, we believe that: i) the current crude oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall,</b>The overall situation is supported by geopolitical conflicts and gaps between supply and demand;<b>ii) So that the conflict can be effectively settled before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the low range of 60-90 US dollars/barrel;<b>iii) So that conflict was partially settled around May,</b>For example, if only military operations slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of US $160-190/barrel at the annual level;<b>iv) Such conflict is still intense after May,</b>Then crude oil prices may push up to the historical record level of 190-230 US dollars/barrel at the annual level;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci technical points of crude oil prices upward and downward, from low to high, are:</b>US $24.1/barrel, US $63.7/barrel, US $88.1/barrel, US $127.7/barrel, US $159.7/barrel, US $191.7/barrel, US $231.3/barrel, US $255.7/barrel and US $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical, economic, inflation, overseas uncertainty and epidemic risks</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/t1KM8XJ5VQ_rhYl-p6SfcA\">宏观闻涛声</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/t1KM8XJ5VQ_rhYl-p6SfcA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137319987","content_text":"如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。我们讨论了当前原油市场经历的八次主要地缘冲击，包括：古巴危机、第一次石油危机、第二次石油危机、第三次石油危机，北约轰炸南联盟、格鲁吉亚冲突、克里米亚危机，和当前的乌克兰冲突。同时，对全球原油供需格局进行了分析。对于历次“地缘-原油”冲击，我们认为：主要有三种冲击响应类型。第一类，油价显著上行，幅度可达150%-200%左右。第二类，油价月线上行后回落，回撤幅度可达40%-60%左右。第三类，油价短线波动，长期影响不显著。对于当前和下一阶段全球原油供需格局，我们认为：当前原油存在供需缺口，地缘博弈、产业链扰动和潜在的制裁都影响了这一缺口的回补，缺口负担的分布是不均的，缺口修复的进程高度受地缘形势影响。对于此次乌克兰冲突冲击的可能后续发展路径，我们认为：（1）在冲突得到实质解决前，油价难以显著回落、持续面临上行压力，这增大了全球、尤其是美国的近期通胀风险。（2）虽然我们预计全球或将面临更高的通胀压力和经济风险，但并不意味着我国通胀和利率面临同比例更高的上行风险，事实上，可能我国年线层面的利率上行压力在相对弱化。（3）最后，对于下一阶段原油价格走势，我们分场景展望，并给出技术面点位：i）当前的原油价格易上难下，整体是受到地缘冲突和供需缺口双重支撑的；ii）如此次冲突能在4-5月前得到有效和解，则原油价格仍有可能回落到60-90美元/桶的较低位区间；iii）如此次冲突在5月左右得到部分和解，例如仅军事行动趋缓，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至160-190美元/桶的高位区间；iv）如此次冲突在5月以后仍在较激烈进行，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至190-230美元/桶的历史记录水平；v）无论何种走势，原油价格向上和向下的斐波那契技术面关键点位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。1 前言：原油价格走向何方？2022年2月乌克兰冲突爆发以来，全球原油价格持续上行，截至3月9日，已推升至超过120美元/桶水平。我们认为，当前的原油价格较快上涨，主要受地缘冲突和供需缺口双重因素推动，有一定合理性，但也面临较高波动性和高度不确定性。如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。2 历史上的地缘冲突冲与原油价格走势本部分考量历史上“地缘冲突-原油价格”的冲击响应模式，并基于历史模式，建立对本轮原油价格冲击响应模式的走势预期框架。2.1 当前原油市场经历的八次主要地缘冲突综合考虑对原油市场的影响和地缘冲突的烈度，二战以后建立的当前原油市场，至少经历过八次较显著的地缘冲突，分别是：古巴危机、第一次石油危机、第二次石油危机、第三次石油危机，北约轰炸南联盟、格鲁吉亚冲突、克里米亚危机，和当前的乌克兰冲突。我们简单概述历次地缘冲突，为我们后续对“地缘冲突-原油价格”影响模式的分类提供基础，主要关注地缘冲突的：持续时长、影响区域、对抗烈度及解决形式。（1）古巴危机主要爆发阶段/时间：1962年8月-10月，持续约3个月。主要影响国家/地区：美国、前苏联、古巴，影响加勒比海地区，非全球原油主产区。主要冲突/解决形式：导弹和核武器部署问题，美国提升战备等级至II级，和平解决、没有公开发生热战。（2）第一次石油危机/第四次中东战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1973年10月-1974年3月，持续约6个月。主要影响国家/地区：埃及等中东地区阿拉伯国家、以色列、美国、前苏联，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区，OPEC在1973年10月宣布对部分国家石油禁运。主要冲突/解决形式：参与国较多，短期烈度较高的局部战争，美国提升战备等级至III级，热战后重新划定国界和领土。（3）第二次石油危机/伊朗革命/两伊战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1979年1月-1981年2月，持续约26个月。主要影响国家/地区：伊朗、伊拉克、美国、前苏联，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区大国冲突，较高烈度的局部战争，热战后持续处于敌对状态。（4）第三次石油危机/海湾战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1990年8月-1991年3月，持续约8个月。主要影响国家/地区：伊拉克、美国、科威特，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区冲突，短期局部战争，美国提升战备等级至II级，以轻微代价重创伊拉克，军事上取得压倒性优势，伊拉克接受联合国决议撤军。（5）北约轰炸南联盟/科索沃战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1999年3月-6月，持续约4个月。主要影响国家/地区：前南联盟、美国、北约，影响巴尔干地区，进一步影响中东欧地区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区冲突，短期局部战争，美国为首的北约在军事上取得压倒性优势，前南联盟于战后解体。（6）格鲁吉亚冲突主要爆发阶段/时间：2008年8月，持续约1个月。主要影响国家/地区：格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。主要冲突/解决形式：短期局部冲突，俄罗斯在军事上取得压倒性优势，俄罗斯宣布承认部分地区独立，美国和北约不予承认。（7）克里米亚危机主要爆发阶段/时间：2014年3月，持续约1个月。主要影响国家/地区：克里米亚、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。主要冲突/解决形式：短期局部动荡，未有大规模军事冲突，俄罗斯宣布承认部分地区加入俄罗斯，美国和北约不予承认。（8）乌克兰冲突（截至2022年3月9日）截至目前，主要爆发阶段/时间：2022年2月-至今，尚在军事冲突中。截止目前，主要影响国家/地区：乌克兰、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。截至目前，主要冲突/解决形式：地区军事冲突和谈判同时进行中，俄罗斯提升战略武器备战等级进入特殊状态，美国提升战备等级至III级，美国和欧盟宣布禁止俄罗斯部分机构使用SWIFT系统等制裁，美国宣布禁止俄罗斯原油和天然气进口，但截至目前德国等欧盟国家尚未明确宣布跟进。2.2 地缘冲突下的原油价格走势基于上文对冲突持续时长、影响区域、对抗烈度及解决形式的分析，当考量同期和其后24个月的原油价格走势，我们认为，“地缘冲突-原油价格”的冲击响应走势，主要可以分为三类：（1）第一类，油价显著上行，累计上行幅度可达150%-200%左右。典型代表为，第一次、第二次石油危机和北约轰炸南联盟。典型特征为，皆有烈度较高的军事冲突、或升级为局部战争，冲突持续时间至少超过4个月，冲突影响地区涉及原油供给，同时，部分存在原油出口国禁运推升油价情况。（2）第二类，油价在事件爆发1-3个月内开始回落，之后显著回落，累计回落幅度可达40%-60%左右。典型代表为，第三次石油危机、格鲁吉亚冲突和克里米亚危机。典型特征为，事件相对较快取得阶段性和解、或军事冲突一方存在压倒性优势、或烈度皆整体可控，同时，部分存在货币主导国平抑油价情况。（3）第三类，油价虽有下行，但没有大幅波动，长期影响不显著。典型代表为，古巴危机。典型特征为，事件突发性较强，虽然短线压力较大、但解决相对较快（1个月内），没有发生的主要原油产区，没有升级为热战。综合三种类型，将相应“地缘冲击-油价响应”走势等比例映射至当前乌克兰时间，如图表5中的不同场景走势，我们认为：（1）当前的原油价格走势，已初步偏离了历史上“得到短期快速解决”的走势模式，正在展现继续上行压力。历史上，主要的三次“快速解决-油价回落”模式，即情景0古巴危机、情景5格鲁吉亚冲突和情景6克里米亚危机，均已经与当前的原油价格走势出现一定幅度背离。（2）下一阶段油价走势，历史模式看，高度取决于是否能在3-4个月内，即3月至5月期间，取得和解。历史上，如能在3-4个月内取得和解，则有可能走出情景3第三次石油危机相似走势，油价从6月起逐步回落，吐回前期涨幅。（3）历史模式看，如本次冲突无法在至迟5月之前取得和解，则油价将可能走出累计100%-200%左右的显著涨幅。即，参照历史上的情景1第一次石油危机、情景2第二次石油危机和情景4北约轰炸南联盟，当映射到本次乌克兰冲击，油价将可能在2022年中即升破160美元/桶，在年末升至190-230美元/桶水平。（4）我们同时测算了基于历史上历次冲击响应波动幅度的斐波那契分位，并折算为本轮对应的技术面压力阻力位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。3 当前原油供需格局和可能的俄罗斯原油禁运影响在上节考察原油价格的地缘冲击响应后，本节考察当前的全球原油供需基本面，以及地缘冲突的重要参与方俄罗斯的可能原油市场影响。3.1 原油供给：相对不足当前，考查全球原油总供给情况，可以发现：（1）供给侧整体尚未完全恢复。从全球原油日产量看，当前全球总供给仍一定幅度低于2019年新冠疫情前水平。（2）俄罗斯是重要原油生产国，近期其面临的局势，对未来供给带来较高不确定。从全球生产份额看，截至2021年末，俄罗斯约为11.4%，伊朗约为3.6%，美国约为20.3%。（3）美国已基本实现原油自给自足，其后续原油政策对未来供给带来较高不确定。截至2021年末，美国自有原油生产量已超过本国原油消费量的90%，从2012年首次升破50%后，美国原油消费自给率持续提升。3.2 原油需求：缺口和库存下行当前，考查全球原油需求情况，可以发现：（1）需求超出供给，为油价上行提供了基本面支持。2021年以来，全球总需求持续高于总供给，缺口持续的时间与幅度皆已达到或接近历史记录水平。过往经验看，历次需求超出，供给缺口时期，原油价格皆以上行为主。（2）乌克兰冲击的或将进一步增加当前原油供需错位。本次乌克兰冲突，短线主要冲击原油生产侧，叠加前期产业链扰动，带来短线进一步供需失衡压力。但也应注意，随油价上行，潜在的供给促进和需求抑制效应何时可带来缺口回补，需后续观察。（3）原油库存低位情况显著。主要原油消费国库存大多处于去化和低库存状态，进一步推升了原油的补库存需求。3.3 俄罗斯的主要贸易格局（1）俄罗斯的出口产品构成，较集中于原油等大宗商品俄罗斯的出口，主要以大宗商品为主，是原油、天然气、铝钢等金属、小麦、化肥等领域的重要出口国。按出口金额，前15大出口品，分别为：1~5：原油、石油产品、天然气、机械和工具、柴油；6-10：液体燃料、铁类金属、煤炭、生铝、半成品碳钢；11-15：小麦及混合麦、扁碳钢、加工木材、混合肥料、无机氮肥。（2）俄罗斯的贸易往来，以欧洲和亚洲地区为主如图表12和图表13，截至2021年底：我国和德国，是俄罗斯份额占比最高的贸易伙伴国，分别占俄罗斯进出口贸易总额的17.9%和7.3%；美国和英国，占俄罗斯净出口贸易份额皆未超过5%，分别为4.4%和3.4%；亚太经合组织（APEC）、欧盟（EU）和独联体（CIS），是俄罗斯最主要的三个贸易伙伴组织，即俄罗斯贸易往来以欧洲和亚洲地区为主。3.4 可能的对俄原油出口制裁的影响北京时间3月9日，美联社消息，美国总统拜登宣布禁止美国进口俄罗斯原油和天然气等产品，截至下午14.00，英国表示将考虑跟进，德国等欧洲大陆国家尚未有明确表态。（1）相对于美英，德国和法国等欧盟国家加入原油禁运的成本更高从原油自给率看，美国和英国的原油自给率皆在90%左右，如进一步扩大生产，有能力将自给率提升至100%以上——英国历史上原油自给率曾较长期高于100%，当前美国页岩油生产仍低于2019年新冠疫情前水平，有一定增产空间。（2）俄罗斯原油出口量较大，如禁运，对市场较显著的短线冲击难以避免，但从全球总产能层面，不考虑地缘因素和运输成本，美国仍有可能对供给缺口进行平抑。当前，俄罗斯原油产量约在1100万桶/日，出口规模约在400-700万桶/日，无论以总产量、或出口量看，对全球原油供给、或出口的份额占比，都在约11%左右。在最极端情况的假设下，如完全禁运，则全球原油日消费将新增400-700万桶/日的缺口，约占全球原油日消费总量的4.5%-7.9%。当前，仍受美国制裁的伊朗和委内瑞拉，其原油出口，分别比制裁前低约150-200万桶/日和200-250万桶/日。沙特方面，原油出口比新冠疫情前仍低约100万桶/日。美国方面，其自身原油出口从2016年的不到60万桶/日，上行到当前的超过300万桶/日，并仍有增产空间。但仍应注意，潜在的原油禁运的影响分布是不均衡的，相对于英美，德国、法国等欧洲大陆国家将承受更多的潜在风险和压力。4 小结与展望在本文的最后部分，我们总结“地缘-原油”冲击的潜在市场影响模式和规律，并基于当前形势，对后续可能的原油价格走势，及其潜在的衍生影响，进行展望。4.1 “地缘-原油”冲击后的可能市场模式如图表18，当回顾历次“地缘-原油”冲击后的市场模式，可以发现：（1）冲击后的原油价格走势和美国加息节奏高度相关。进一步的，由于原油价格相对美联储利率决议的更高频属性，实际操作中可以将原油价格作为议息决议的前瞻指标——从地缘冲击的视角，当冲击发生后，年线内的油价走势和目标利率调整方向高度一致。（2）冲击后的美国10Y国债收益率走势与原油价格走势高度相关。在剔除避险情绪等日线层面的短线扰动后，原油价格的月线走势在冲击发生后的年度，和收益率走向高度一致。（3）多数冲突发生的当年或下一年，美国经济增速皆有下移，甚至跌入衰退区间。进一步的，当回溯冲突发生当年和下一年的全球经济增长时，多数时候、多数国家和地区是的实际增长结果不及冲突发生前的预期数值，但应注意，这一下调的分布往往是不均的——冲突参与方和所在地域经济体往往较显著下修，其次是经济和贸易关联方，再次是其它受影响较小的国家和地区。4.2 当前乌克兰“地缘-原油”冲击的可能后续发展综合考虑历次的“地缘-原油”冲击的影响模式，对于当前乌克兰冲突，事件冲击的可能后续发展路径，我们预期如下：（1）在冲突得到实质解决前，油价难以显著回落、持续面临上行压力，这增大了全球、尤其是美国的近期通胀风险。本次冲突，俄罗斯的主要诉求与美国立场仍有较显著分歧。目前，随地区军事冲突的持续时间增加，油价正在远离“短期冲突-油价回落”的模式，如不能在未来1-3个月内得到和解，则转入“持续冲突-油价上行”模式的概率在上行——同时，不同于以往情况，此次美国依赖其在全球金融、贸易和科技的主导地位，正在对俄罗斯的金融、贸易和科技等诸领域进行全方位制裁和禁运——这一制裁与对抗，进一步影响了全球产业链和生产体系，干扰了全球经济增长和通胀环境。（2）虽然我们预计全球或将面临更高的通胀压力和经济风险，但并不意味着我国通胀和利率面临同比例更高的上行风险，事实上，可能我国年线层面的利率上行压力在相对弱化。由于冲突对全球产业链的扰乱，无论原油价格是否上行，冲突本身都更大概率会削弱1-2年内的局部和全球经济增长。作为全球最大生产国，我国将面临相对更小的通胀风险，由于外部环境的更高不确定性，政策将更加注重“稳就是进”和“以我为主”，降低企业实际融资成本的考量和稳健的人民币币值，将提供更好的货币政策和利率空间。（3）最后，回到原油价格走势，我们认为：i）当前的原油价格易上难下，整体是受到地缘冲突和供需缺口双重支撑的；ii）如此次冲突能在4-5月前得到有效和解，则原油价格仍有可能回落到60-90美元/桶的较低位区间；iii）如此次冲突在5月左右得到部分和解，例如仅军事行动趋缓，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至160-190美元/桶的高位区间；iv）如此次冲突在5月以后仍在较激烈进行，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至190-230美元/桶的历史记录水平；v）无论何种走势，原油价格向上和向下的斐波那契技术面关键点位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。风险提示：地缘、经济、通胀、海外不确定性和疫情风险","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952605972,"gmtCreate":1674660491696,"gmtModify":1676538951472,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578436425687491","idStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Slowly ","listText":"Slowly ","text":"Slowly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952605972","repostId":"1108441041","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108441041","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1674657098,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108441041?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-25 22:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | U.S. stocks collectively open low, Microsoft fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108441041","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"道琼斯指数开盘下跌279.48点，跌幅0.83%，报33454.48点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 25 (Wednesday), the Dow Jones index opened down 279.48 points, or 0.83%, to 33,454.48 points; The S&P 500 index opened down 49.00 points, or 1.22%, to 3967.95 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 203.66 points, or 1.80%, to 11,130.61 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3303c0c34092357f18d49c6c81847b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Falling more than 3%, Microsoft's revenue in the second fiscal quarter of 2023 was US $52.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, the lowest growth rate since 2016; Profit fell to US $16.43 billion from US $18.77 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The growth rate of cloud business Azure has slowed down, and the company expects this trend to continue in the coming quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6489561bf104fbba322153fcb0a0e129\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Open low fell 2%,<b>Tesla will announce its financial report after the market closes today, and some analysts predict that its net profit will hit a new low in nearly three years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2193f64bddde69ce27ee39a2708ee134\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>It fell more than 3%, and Q4 revenue and net profit were lower than expected.</p><p>Abbott fell 2%. Affected by the decline in demand for new crown testing products, Q4 revenue fell 12% to US $10.1 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">NASDAQ OMX Exchange</a>It fell 7%, the largest drop since March 2020, and fourth-quarter results fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>(AT&T) bucked the trend and rose nearly 4%. In the fourth quarter, adjusted earnings per share were $0.61, exceeding market expectations.</p><p>Shopify bucked the trend and rose more than 5% after the company said it would raise prices for some services in 2023.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell more and rose less at the beginning of the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 0.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 0.54%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Fell more than 2%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | U.S. stocks collectively open low, Microsoft fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | U.S. stocks collectively open low, Microsoft fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-25 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 25 (Wednesday), the Dow Jones index opened down 279.48 points, or 0.83%, to 33,454.48 points; The S&P 500 index opened down 49.00 points, or 1.22%, to 3967.95 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 203.66 points, or 1.80%, to 11,130.61 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3303c0c34092357f18d49c6c81847b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Falling more than 3%, Microsoft's revenue in the second fiscal quarter of 2023 was US $52.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, the lowest growth rate since 2016; Profit fell to US $16.43 billion from US $18.77 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The growth rate of cloud business Azure has slowed down, and the company expects this trend to continue in the coming quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6489561bf104fbba322153fcb0a0e129\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Open low fell 2%,<b>Tesla will announce its financial report after the market closes today, and some analysts predict that its net profit will hit a new low in nearly three years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2193f64bddde69ce27ee39a2708ee134\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>It fell more than 3%, and Q4 revenue and net profit were lower than expected.</p><p>Abbott fell 2%. Affected by the decline in demand for new crown testing products, Q4 revenue fell 12% to US $10.1 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">NASDAQ OMX Exchange</a>It fell 7%, the largest drop since March 2020, and fourth-quarter results fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>(AT&T) bucked the trend and rose nearly 4%. In the fourth quarter, adjusted earnings per share were $0.61, exceeding market expectations.</p><p>Shopify bucked the trend and rose more than 5% after the company said it would raise prices for some services in 2023.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell more and rose less at the beginning of the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 0.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 0.54%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Fell more than 2%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108441041","content_text":"1月25日（周三），道琼斯指数开盘下跌279.48点，跌幅0.83%，报33454.48点；标普500指数开盘下跌49.00点，跌幅1.22%，报3967.95点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌203.66点，跌幅1.80%，报11130.61点。微软跌超3%，微软2023年第二财季收入为527.5亿美元，同比增长2%，创下2016年以来的最低增速；利润从上一年同期的187.7亿美元降至164.3亿美元，同比下滑12%。云业务Azure增速放缓，公司预计这种趋势可能在未来几个季度持续。特斯拉低开跌2%，特斯拉将于今日盘后公布财报，有分析师预计其净利润将创近3年新低。波音跌超3%，Q4营收和净利润均不及预期。雅培跌2%，受新冠测试产品需求下降的影响，Q4营收下滑12%至101亿美元。纳斯达克OMX交易所跌7%，创2020年3月以来最大跌幅，第四季度业绩不及预期。美国电话电报(AT&T)逆市涨近4%，第四季度调整后每股收益0.61美元，超出市场预期。Shopify逆市涨超5%，此前该公司表示2023年将提高部分服务的价格。热门中概股盘初阶段跌多涨少，阿里巴巴涨0.36%，拼多多跌0.35%，京东跌0.54%，小鹏汽车、蔚来、理想汽车跌超2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016184355,"gmtCreate":1649149002763,"gmtModify":1676534459353,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578436425687491","idStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002340\">$格林美(002340)$</a>...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002340\">$格林美(002340)$</a>...","text":"$格林美(002340)$...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/637d8876e329a2cf71420438f1b7af1c","width":"1242","height":"1968"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016184355","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":204068156846240,"gmtCreate":1690858163048,"gmtModify":1690858167258,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578436425687491","idStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi there Nice to see you today ","listText":"Hi there Nice to see you today ","text":"Hi there Nice to see you today","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/204068156846240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
