WaiKeat6789 personal page - To The Moon

WaiKeat6789

WaiKeat6789

No personal profile

248Follow

9Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2021-08-25

Come back come back

2021-08-19

? [Cool]

2021-08-17

Hmmm….

2021-08-17

$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$Wait wait wait

2021-08-16

Wait and see

2021-08-14

$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$Hmm…

2021-08-13

$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$Wait wait..

2021-08-11

Wait and see..

2021-08-11

$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$Hmm…

2021-08-10

What happen…

2021-07-28

Yea..

2021-07-25

Nice share..

2021-07-23

Hmm….. ?

2021-07-22

Shared..

2021-07-16

Good company…

2021-07-16

$DOYU 20210716 7.5 PUT(DOYU)$Still got chance?

2021-07-15

Wonderful..

2021-07-15

$DOYU 20210716 7.5 PUT(DOYU)$Raised please

2021-07-13

Lai…lai…

2021-07-13

$DOYU 20210716 7.5 PUT(DOYU)$Hmm… haiz…

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">$DOYU 20210716 7.5 PUT(DOYU)$</a>Hmm… haiz…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">$DOYU 20210716 7.5 PUT(DOYU)$</a>Hmm… haiz…","text":"$DOYU 20210716 7.5 PUT(DOYU)$Hmm… haiz…","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aa2d688eedb1b9e89c0aa2d0d6c5b6e","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145074902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":191312841,"gmtCreate":1620852769983,"gmtModify":1704349268480,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said","listText":"Well said","text":"Well said","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191312841","repostId":"1190538975","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191333423,"gmtCreate":1620845618062,"gmtModify":1704349252244,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191333423","repostId":"1152301111","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180880285,"gmtCreate":1623198262647,"gmtModify":1704198060835,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Still waiting..","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Still waiting..","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Still waiting..","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274fb78f3ef4379fa203bf5a5c7b30bf","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180880285","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193016623,"gmtCreate":1620740088562,"gmtModify":1704347644873,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes. Still bubble![Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Yes. Still bubble![Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Yes. Still bubble![Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193016623","repostId":"1199341916","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199341916","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620736561,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199341916?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-11 20:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199341916","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As Mark Hulbert noted recently, “everyone” is worrying about a “bubble” in the stock market. To wit:. “To appreciate how widespread current concern about a bubble is, consider the accompanying chart of data from Google Trends. It plots the relative frequency of Google searches based on the term ‘stock market bubble.’ Notice that this frequency has recently jumped to a far-higher level than at any other point over the last five years.”“My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, ","content":"<p><b><i>\"If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?”</i></b>That was a great question I got over the weekend.&nbsp;As a&nbsp;<i>“contrarian”</i>&nbsp;investor, it is usually when&nbsp;<i>“everyone”</i>&nbsp;is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen.</p>\n<p>As&nbsp;<b><i>Mark Hulbert noted recently</i></b>,&nbsp;<i>“everyone”</i>&nbsp;is worrying about a<i>&nbsp;“bubble”</i>&nbsp;in the stock market. To wit:</p>\n<p><i>“To appreciate how widespread current concern about a bubble is, consider the accompanying chart of data from Google Trends. It plots the relative frequency of Google searches based on the term ‘stock market bubble.’ Notice that this frequency has recently jumped to a far-higher level than at any other point over the last five years.”</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2a152e3037789e73c80d5c89bf4141\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What Is A Bubble?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b><i>“My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth ‘real McCoy’ bubble of my investment career.</i></b>\n <i>The great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain, but at least I think we know now that we’re in one.”</i>\n <b><i>&nbsp;–</i></b>\n <i>Jeremy Grantham</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>What is the definition of a bubble?&nbsp; According to&nbsp;<i>Investopedia:</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“A bubble is a market cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets.</i>\n <i><b>Typically, what creates a bubble is a surge in asset prices driven by exuberant market behavior.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;During a bubble, assets typically trade at a price</i>\n <i><b>that greatly exceeds the asset’s intrinsic value. Rather, the price does not align with thefundamentals of the asset.</b></i>\n <i>“</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>This definition is suitable for our discussion; there are three components of a&nbsp;<i>“bubble.”</i><i><b>The&nbsp;first two, price and valuation,</b></i>&nbsp;are readily dismissed during the inflation phase.&nbsp;Jeremy Grantham once produced the following chart of 40-years of price bubbles in the markets. During the inflation phase, each was readily dismissed under the guise&nbsp;<i>“this time is different.”</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367ada4ec5d5a7c35f8e670e0224fc6b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"342\"></p>\n<p><b>We are interested in the</b><b><i>“third”</i></b><b>&nbsp;component of</b><b><i>“bubbles,”</i></b><b>&nbsp;which is investor psychology.</b></p>\n<p><b>A Bubble In Psychology</b></p>\n<p>As&nbsp;<i><b>Howard Marks previously noted:</b></i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“It’s the swings of psychology that get people into the biggest trouble. Especially since investors’ emotions invariably swing in the wrong direction at the wrong time.</i>\n <i><b>When things are going well people become greedy and enthusiastic. When times are troubled, people become fearful and reticent. That’s just the wrong thing to do. It’s important to control fear and greed.”</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Currently, it’s difficult for investors to become any more enthusiastic about market returns.&nbsp;<i>(</i><i><b>The RIAPro Fear/Greed Index</b></i><i>&nbsp;compiles measures of equity allocation and market sentiment. The index level is</i><i><b>not a component</b></i><i>&nbsp;of the measure that runs from 0 to 100.</i><i><b>The current reading is 99.9, which is a historical record.)</b></i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137bb4e88e92ca8b22df63ffc61e387c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"334\"></p>\n<p>Such is an interesting juxtaposition. On the one hand, there is a rising recognition of a&nbsp;<i>“bubble,”</i>&nbsp;but investors are unwilling to reduce “equity risk” for&nbsp;<i>“fear of missing out or F.O.M.O.”</i>Such was a point noted explicitly by Mark:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“Rather than responding by taking some chips off the table, however, many began freely admitting a bubble formed.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;They no longer tried to justify higher prices on fundamentals. Rather,</i>\n <i><b>they justified it instead in terms of the market’s momentum.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;Prices should keep going up as FOMO seduces more investors to jump on the bandwagon.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>In other words, investors have fully adopted the&nbsp;<i>“Greater Fool Theory.”</i></p>\n<p>Okay, Boomer!</p>\n<p>I know. The discussion of&nbsp;<i>“valuations”</i>&nbsp;is an old-fashioned idea relegated to investors of an older era. Such was evident in the pushback on Charlie Munger’s comments about Bitcoin recently:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i>\n <i><b>While Munger has never been a bitcoin advocate, his dislike crystalized into something close to hatred.</b></i>\n <i>Looking back over the past 52 weeks, the reason for Munger’s anger becomes apparent with Berkshire rising only 50.5% against bitcoin’s more than 500% gain.”&nbsp;– Coindesk</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>In 1999, when Buffett spoke out against&nbsp;<i>“Dot.com”</i>&nbsp;stocks, he got dismissed with a similar ire of&nbsp;<b><i>“investing with Warren Buffett is like driving ‘Dad’s old Pontiac.'”</i></b></p>\n<p>Today, young investors are not interested in the&nbsp;<i>“pearls of wisdom”</i>&nbsp;from experienced investors. Today, they are&nbsp;<i>“out of touch,”</i>&nbsp;with the market’s<i>&nbsp;“new reality.”</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“The big benefit of TikTok is it allows users to dole out and obtain information in short, easily digestible video bites, also called TikToks.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;And that can make unfamiliar, complex topics, such as personal finance and investing, more palatable to a younger audience.That advice runs the gamut, from general information about home buying or retirement savings to specific stock picks and investment ideas.</i>\n <i><b>Rob Shields, a 22-year-old, self-taught options trader who has more than 163,000 followers on TikTok, posts TikToks under the username stock_genius on topics such as popular stocks to watch, how to find good stocks, and basic trading strategies.” –&nbsp;WSJ:</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Of course, the problem with information doled out by 22-year olds is they were 10-year olds during the last</b><i><b>“bear market.”</b></i>Given the lack of experience of investing during such a market, as opposed to Warren Buffett who has survived several, is the eventual destruction of capital.</p>\n<p><b>Plenty Of Analogies</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“There is no shortage of current analogies, of course. Take Dogecoin, created as a joke with no fundamental value.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;As a&nbsp;recent Wall Street Journal article outlined, the Dogecoin ‘serves no purpose and, unlike Bitcoin, faces no limit on the number of coins that exist.’</i>\n <i><b>Yet investors flock to it, for no other apparent reason than its sharp rise.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;Billy Markus, the co-creator of dogecoin, said to the Wall Street Journal, ‘This is absurd. I haven’t seen anything like it. It’s one of those things that once it starts going up, it might keep going up.’” – Mark Hulbert</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>That exuberance shows up with professionals as well.<b>&nbsp;As of the end of April, the National Association Of Investment Managers asset allocation was 103%.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c412f208aa700b3f7ccb35d3b7d4e923\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"328\"></p>\n<p>As Dana Lyons noted previously:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Regardless of the investment acumen of any group (we think it is very high among NAAIM members),</i>\n <i><b>once the collective investment opinion or posture becomes too one-sided, it can be an indication that some market action may be necessary to correct such consensus.</b></i>\n <i>“</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Give Me More</b></p>\n<p>Of course, margin debt, which is the epitome of “<i>speculative appetite,”</i>&nbsp;soared in recent months.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11b088ecdf04d5036b4f5bb2d67c13d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"327\"></p>\n<p>As stated,&nbsp;<i>“bubbles are about psychology,”</i>&nbsp;which the annual rate of change of leverage shows.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422c963018723e8986826a89a32883e5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"327\"></p>\n<p>Another form of leverage that doesn’t show up in margin debt is ETF’s structured to multiply market returns. These funds have seen record inflows in recent months.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac35f10215d5fcffec35e4e94c952bb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\"></p>\n<p><b>With margin debt reaching levels not seen since the peak of the last cyclical bull market cycle, it should raise some concerns about sustainability.</b>&nbsp;It is NOT the level of leverage that is the problem as leverage increases buying power as markets are rising.&nbsp;<b>The unwinding of this leverage is critically dangerous in the market as the acceleration of</b><b><i>“margin calls”</i></b><b>&nbsp;leads to a vicious downward spiral.</b></p>\n<p>Importantly, this chart<b>&nbsp;does not meanthat a massive market correction is imminent. I</b>t does suggest that leverage, and speculative risk-taking, are likely much further advanced than currently recognized.</p>\n<p><b>Pushing Extremes</b></p>\n<p>Prices are ultimately affected by physics. Moving averages, trend lines, etc., all exert a gravitational pull on prices in both the short and long term.&nbsp;<b>Like a rubber band, when prices get stretched too far in one direction, they have always eventually</b><b><i>“reverted to the mean”</i></b><b>&nbsp;in the most brutal of manners.</b></p>\n<p>The chart below shows the long-term chart of the S&amp;P 500 broken down by several measures: 2 and 3-standard deviations, valuations, relative strength, and deviations from the 3-year moving average.&nbsp;<b>It is worth noting that both standard deviations and distance from the 3-year moving average are at a record.</b></p>\n<p><b>During the last 120-years, overvaluation and extreme deviations NEVER got resolved by markets going sideways.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc311c3fdd527fd911070f7dd841545\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"590\"></p>\n<p>The only missing ingredient for such a correction currently is simply a catalyst to put&nbsp;<i>“fear”</i>&nbsp;into an overly complacent marketplace. Anything from economic disruption, a credit-related crisis, or an unexpected exogenous shock could start the&nbsp;<i>“panic for the exits.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>There is more than adequate evidence a<i>&nbsp;“bubble”</i>&nbsp;exists in markets once again. However, as Mark noted in his commentary:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>‘I have no idea whether the stock market is actually forming a bubble that’s about to break.</i>\n <i><b>But I do know that many bulls are fooling themselves when they think a bubble can’t happen when there is such widespread concern. In fact, one of the distinguishing characteristics of a bubble is just that.”</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>However, he concludes with the most important statement:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“It’s important for all of us to be aware of this bubble psychology,</i>\n <i><b>but especially if you’re a retiree or a near-retiree. That’s because, in that case, your investment horizon is far shorter than for those who are younger.</b></i>\n <i>Therefore, you are less able to recover from the deflation of a market bubble.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Read that statement again.</b></p>\n<p>Millennials are quick to dismiss the&nbsp;<i>“Boomers”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets today for&nbsp;<i>“not getting it.”</i></p>\n<p>No, we get it. We have just been around long enough to know how these things eventually end.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-11 20:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-everyone-sees-it-it-still-bubble><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>\"If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?”That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a “contrarian” investor, it is usually when “everyone” is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen.\nAs...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-everyone-sees-it-it-still-bubble\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-everyone-sees-it-it-still-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199341916","content_text":"\"If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?”That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a “contrarian” investor, it is usually when “everyone” is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen.\nAs Mark Hulbert noted recently, “everyone” is worrying about a “bubble” in the stock market. To wit:\n“To appreciate how widespread current concern about a bubble is, consider the accompanying chart of data from Google Trends. It plots the relative frequency of Google searches based on the term ‘stock market bubble.’ Notice that this frequency has recently jumped to a far-higher level than at any other point over the last five years.”\nWhat Is A Bubble?\n\n“My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth ‘real McCoy’ bubble of my investment career.\nThe great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain, but at least I think we know now that we’re in one.”\n –\nJeremy Grantham\n\nWhat is the definition of a bubble?  According to Investopedia:\n\n“A bubble is a market cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets.\nTypically, what creates a bubble is a surge in asset prices driven by exuberant market behavior.\n During a bubble, assets typically trade at a price\nthat greatly exceeds the asset’s intrinsic value. Rather, the price does not align with thefundamentals of the asset.\n“\n\nThis definition is suitable for our discussion; there are three components of a “bubble.”The first two, price and valuation, are readily dismissed during the inflation phase. Jeremy Grantham once produced the following chart of 40-years of price bubbles in the markets. During the inflation phase, each was readily dismissed under the guise “this time is different.”\n\nWe are interested in the“third” component of“bubbles,” which is investor psychology.\nA Bubble In Psychology\nAs Howard Marks previously noted:\n\n“It’s the swings of psychology that get people into the biggest trouble. Especially since investors’ emotions invariably swing in the wrong direction at the wrong time.\nWhen things are going well people become greedy and enthusiastic. When times are troubled, people become fearful and reticent. That’s just the wrong thing to do. It’s important to control fear and greed.”\n\nCurrently, it’s difficult for investors to become any more enthusiastic about market returns. (The RIAPro Fear/Greed Index compiles measures of equity allocation and market sentiment. The index level isnot a component of the measure that runs from 0 to 100.The current reading is 99.9, which is a historical record.)\n\nSuch is an interesting juxtaposition. On the one hand, there is a rising recognition of a “bubble,” but investors are unwilling to reduce “equity risk” for “fear of missing out or F.O.M.O.”Such was a point noted explicitly by Mark:\n\n“Rather than responding by taking some chips off the table, however, many began freely admitting a bubble formed.\n They no longer tried to justify higher prices on fundamentals. Rather,\nthey justified it instead in terms of the market’s momentum.\n Prices should keep going up as FOMO seduces more investors to jump on the bandwagon.”\n\nIn other words, investors have fully adopted the “Greater Fool Theory.”\nOkay, Boomer!\nI know. The discussion of “valuations” is an old-fashioned idea relegated to investors of an older era. Such was evident in the pushback on Charlie Munger’s comments about Bitcoin recently:\n\n“\nWhile Munger has never been a bitcoin advocate, his dislike crystalized into something close to hatred.\nLooking back over the past 52 weeks, the reason for Munger’s anger becomes apparent with Berkshire rising only 50.5% against bitcoin’s more than 500% gain.” – Coindesk\n\nIn 1999, when Buffett spoke out against “Dot.com” stocks, he got dismissed with a similar ire of “investing with Warren Buffett is like driving ‘Dad’s old Pontiac.'”\nToday, young investors are not interested in the “pearls of wisdom” from experienced investors. Today, they are “out of touch,” with the market’s “new reality.”\n\n“The big benefit of TikTok is it allows users to dole out and obtain information in short, easily digestible video bites, also called TikToks.\n And that can make unfamiliar, complex topics, such as personal finance and investing, more palatable to a younger audience.That advice runs the gamut, from general information about home buying or retirement savings to specific stock picks and investment ideas.\nRob Shields, a 22-year-old, self-taught options trader who has more than 163,000 followers on TikTok, posts TikToks under the username stock_genius on topics such as popular stocks to watch, how to find good stocks, and basic trading strategies.” – WSJ:\n\nOf course, the problem with information doled out by 22-year olds is they were 10-year olds during the last“bear market.”Given the lack of experience of investing during such a market, as opposed to Warren Buffett who has survived several, is the eventual destruction of capital.\nPlenty Of Analogies\n\n“There is no shortage of current analogies, of course. Take Dogecoin, created as a joke with no fundamental value.\n As a recent Wall Street Journal article outlined, the Dogecoin ‘serves no purpose and, unlike Bitcoin, faces no limit on the number of coins that exist.’\nYet investors flock to it, for no other apparent reason than its sharp rise.\n Billy Markus, the co-creator of dogecoin, said to the Wall Street Journal, ‘This is absurd. I haven’t seen anything like it. It’s one of those things that once it starts going up, it might keep going up.’” – Mark Hulbert\n\nThat exuberance shows up with professionals as well. As of the end of April, the National Association Of Investment Managers asset allocation was 103%.\n\nAs Dana Lyons noted previously:\n\n “\n Regardless of the investment acumen of any group (we think it is very high among NAAIM members),\nonce the collective investment opinion or posture becomes too one-sided, it can be an indication that some market action may be necessary to correct such consensus.\n“\n\nGive Me More\nOf course, margin debt, which is the epitome of “speculative appetite,” soared in recent months.\n\nAs stated, “bubbles are about psychology,” which the annual rate of change of leverage shows.\n\nAnother form of leverage that doesn’t show up in margin debt is ETF’s structured to multiply market returns. These funds have seen record inflows in recent months.\n\nWith margin debt reaching levels not seen since the peak of the last cyclical bull market cycle, it should raise some concerns about sustainability. It is NOT the level of leverage that is the problem as leverage increases buying power as markets are rising. The unwinding of this leverage is critically dangerous in the market as the acceleration of“margin calls” leads to a vicious downward spiral.\nImportantly, this chart does not meanthat a massive market correction is imminent. It does suggest that leverage, and speculative risk-taking, are likely much further advanced than currently recognized.\nPushing Extremes\nPrices are ultimately affected by physics. Moving averages, trend lines, etc., all exert a gravitational pull on prices in both the short and long term. Like a rubber band, when prices get stretched too far in one direction, they have always eventually“reverted to the mean” in the most brutal of manners.\nThe chart below shows the long-term chart of the S&P 500 broken down by several measures: 2 and 3-standard deviations, valuations, relative strength, and deviations from the 3-year moving average. It is worth noting that both standard deviations and distance from the 3-year moving average are at a record.\nDuring the last 120-years, overvaluation and extreme deviations NEVER got resolved by markets going sideways.\n\nThe only missing ingredient for such a correction currently is simply a catalyst to put “fear” into an overly complacent marketplace. Anything from economic disruption, a credit-related crisis, or an unexpected exogenous shock could start the “panic for the exits.”\nConclusion\nThere is more than adequate evidence a “bubble” exists in markets once again. However, as Mark noted in his commentary:\n\n‘I have no idea whether the stock market is actually forming a bubble that’s about to break.\nBut I do know that many bulls are fooling themselves when they think a bubble can’t happen when there is such widespread concern. In fact, one of the distinguishing characteristics of a bubble is just that.”\n\nHowever, he concludes with the most important statement:\n\n“It’s important for all of us to be aware of this bubble psychology,\nbut especially if you’re a retiree or a near-retiree. That’s because, in that case, your investment horizon is far shorter than for those who are younger.\nTherefore, you are less able to recover from the deflation of a market bubble.”\n\nRead that statement again.\nMillennials are quick to dismiss the “Boomers” in the financial markets today for “not getting it.”\nNo, we get it. We have just been around long enough to know how these things eventually end.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113708771,"gmtCreate":1622638161493,"gmtModify":1704187799538,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCMC\">$Healthier Choices Management Corp.(HCMC)$</a>Wait..","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCMC\">$Healthier Choices Management Corp.(HCMC)$</a>Wait..","text":"$Healthier Choices Management Corp.(HCMC)$Wait..","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e23d7d5e16e9525063c34e9da709fa","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/113708771","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197300241,"gmtCreate":1621425028683,"gmtModify":1704357396037,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197300241","repostId":"1158638540","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158638540","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621409180,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158638540?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 15:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Things to Know Ahead of the Squarespace’s Direct Listing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158638540","media":"Barrons","summary":"The pandemic prompted many small businesses to gain online storefronts for the first time, creating an e-commerce wave that helped website-creation platform Squarespace Inc. accelerate its revenue growth.Now Squarespace will test the resilience of that e-commerce momentum as a public company. Its shares are scheduled to begin trading Wednesday in a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SQSP.The company offers various tools for website creation, including domains, e-comme","content":"<p>The pandemic prompted many small businesses to gain online storefronts for the first time, creating an e-commerce wave that helped website-creation platform Squarespace Inc. accelerate its revenue growth.</p>\n<p>Now Squarespace will test the resilience of that e-commerce momentum as a public company. Its shares are scheduled to begin trading Wednesday in a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SQSP.</p>\n<p>The company offers various tools for website creation, including domains, e-commerce functions and marketing capabilities. Squarespace aims to work with small businesses that have limited web expertise as well as “large brands” that need greater flexibility to customize based on their needs.</p>\n<p>Squarespace sees itself playing into a number of trends, including a growing need for businesses to maintain direct relationships with their customers and an increased emphasis on do-it-yourself solutions that are “rapidly displacing expensive agencies and making equivalent design quality out-of-the-box, accessible and easy-to-use for all,” the company said in&nbsp;its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p>\n<p>The company raised $300 million in a March funding round that gave the company an enterprise valuation of $10 billion, and is not raising any new funding as it lists. Here is what else you need to know about the company.</p>\n<p><b>Growing Revenue, Shrinking Profits</b></p>\n<p>Squarespace posted $621 million in revenue during 2020, up from $485 million a year earlier. Revenue was up 28% in the latest fiscal year, ahead of the 24% growth rate seen in the prior period.</p>\n<p>The company classifies 94% of its revenue as subscription-based. Squarespace added about 700,000 new unique subscriptions in 2020 and the company disclosed that more than two thirds of total subscriptions are annual.</p>\n<p>About 70% of Squarespace’s revenue last year came from the U.S., while the rest was international.</p>\n<p>Squarespace was profitable last year, recording about $30.6 million in net income, though profits were down from $58.2 million in 2019. The company’s “fundamentals highlight a rare combo of profitability and growth at scale,” wrote MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni.</p>\n<p>Despite a string of profitability on an annual basis, Squarespace generated a net loss of $10.1 million in the first quarter of 2021 compared with a loss of $1.1 million a year earlier. The company posted profits in each of the last three quarters of 2020.</p>\n<p><b>Competition Aplenty</b></p>\n<p>The company competes with a variety of different players across the e-commerce industry, according to its filing. Squarespace counts web-creation platforms like&nbsp;Wix.com&nbsp;(ticker: WIX) and Square’s (SQ) Weebly among its competition, along with e-commerce powerhouse&nbsp;Shopify&nbsp;(ticker: SHOP),&nbsp;which lets businesses set up online shops.</p>\n<p>Squarespace also calls out competitors like GoDaddy (GDDY) that offer domain-name tools, as well as those providing email-marketing and scheduling functions, while arguing that its own “comprehensive, all-in-one platform, multichannel commerce capabilities” are an asset.</p>\n<p>Jefferies analyst Brent Thill notes that Wix is larger than Squarespace, with revenue of $989 million last year versus $621 million for Squarespace. In addition, Squarespace’s revenue last year was similar to what Wix posted in 2018, but Wix was posting faster growth at that scale, and without the benefit of the pandemic-driven acceleration in e-commerce more broadly, he wrote.</p>\n<p><b>On the Menu</b></p>\n<p>SquareSpace recently closed its $415 million acquisition of Tock, a company focused on the restaurant and hospitality industries. Tock’s services allow businesses to manage reservations, takeout, event ticketing and more.</p>\n<p>This part of the business may position SquareSpace against more tech giants, suggested MKM’s Kulkarni.</p>\n<p>“SquareSpace’s offering with Tock faces competition from delivery services such as Uber Eats (UBER),DoorDash&nbsp;(DASH) and&nbsp;Grubhub&nbsp;(GRUB),&nbsp;along with other restaurant [customer-relationship management] services such as TouchBistro and Toast,” he wrote.</p>\n<p>At the same time, the acquisition is an example of one way Squarespace has “smartly diversified into selling not just physical goods online but also adding calendar/scheduling capabilities (restaurant or gym reservations), content sales, and subscriptions,” he continued.</p>\n<p><b>Marketing Bucks</b></p>\n<p>Squarespace’s marketing and sales costs are growing far faster than its revenue. The company incurred $3.1 million in such expenses last year, up from $1.7 million in 2019, making for a 45% increase, whereas revenue was up 28% in the same span.</p>\n<p>The company’s podcast advertisements may be familiar to frequent listeners, though Squarespace notes in its prospectus that it advertises its services broadly, using “online keyword search, sponsorships and celebrity endorsements, television, podcasts, print and online advertising, email and social media marketing.”</p>\n<p>Among its risk factors, Squarespace points to the possibility that Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google could change its algorithm or raise the costs of its search-engine-marketing tools.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Things to Know Ahead of the Squarespace’s Direct Listing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Things to Know Ahead of the Squarespace’s Direct Listing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 15:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/squarespace-direct-listing-51621376597?mod=hp_LEAD_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The pandemic prompted many small businesses to gain online storefronts for the first time, creating an e-commerce wave that helped website-creation platform Squarespace Inc. accelerate its revenue ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/squarespace-direct-listing-51621376597?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SQSP":"Squarespace Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/squarespace-direct-listing-51621376597?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158638540","content_text":"The pandemic prompted many small businesses to gain online storefronts for the first time, creating an e-commerce wave that helped website-creation platform Squarespace Inc. accelerate its revenue growth.\nNow Squarespace will test the resilience of that e-commerce momentum as a public company. Its shares are scheduled to begin trading Wednesday in a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SQSP.\nThe company offers various tools for website creation, including domains, e-commerce functions and marketing capabilities. Squarespace aims to work with small businesses that have limited web expertise as well as “large brands” that need greater flexibility to customize based on their needs.\nSquarespace sees itself playing into a number of trends, including a growing need for businesses to maintain direct relationships with their customers and an increased emphasis on do-it-yourself solutions that are “rapidly displacing expensive agencies and making equivalent design quality out-of-the-box, accessible and easy-to-use for all,” the company said in its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nThe company raised $300 million in a March funding round that gave the company an enterprise valuation of $10 billion, and is not raising any new funding as it lists. Here is what else you need to know about the company.\nGrowing Revenue, Shrinking Profits\nSquarespace posted $621 million in revenue during 2020, up from $485 million a year earlier. Revenue was up 28% in the latest fiscal year, ahead of the 24% growth rate seen in the prior period.\nThe company classifies 94% of its revenue as subscription-based. Squarespace added about 700,000 new unique subscriptions in 2020 and the company disclosed that more than two thirds of total subscriptions are annual.\nAbout 70% of Squarespace’s revenue last year came from the U.S., while the rest was international.\nSquarespace was profitable last year, recording about $30.6 million in net income, though profits were down from $58.2 million in 2019. The company’s “fundamentals highlight a rare combo of profitability and growth at scale,” wrote MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni.\nDespite a string of profitability on an annual basis, Squarespace generated a net loss of $10.1 million in the first quarter of 2021 compared with a loss of $1.1 million a year earlier. The company posted profits in each of the last three quarters of 2020.\nCompetition Aplenty\nThe company competes with a variety of different players across the e-commerce industry, according to its filing. Squarespace counts web-creation platforms like Wix.com (ticker: WIX) and Square’s (SQ) Weebly among its competition, along with e-commerce powerhouse Shopify (ticker: SHOP), which lets businesses set up online shops.\nSquarespace also calls out competitors like GoDaddy (GDDY) that offer domain-name tools, as well as those providing email-marketing and scheduling functions, while arguing that its own “comprehensive, all-in-one platform, multichannel commerce capabilities” are an asset.\nJefferies analyst Brent Thill notes that Wix is larger than Squarespace, with revenue of $989 million last year versus $621 million for Squarespace. In addition, Squarespace’s revenue last year was similar to what Wix posted in 2018, but Wix was posting faster growth at that scale, and without the benefit of the pandemic-driven acceleration in e-commerce more broadly, he wrote.\nOn the Menu\nSquareSpace recently closed its $415 million acquisition of Tock, a company focused on the restaurant and hospitality industries. Tock’s services allow businesses to manage reservations, takeout, event ticketing and more.\nThis part of the business may position SquareSpace against more tech giants, suggested MKM’s Kulkarni.\n“SquareSpace’s offering with Tock faces competition from delivery services such as Uber Eats (UBER),DoorDash (DASH) and Grubhub (GRUB), along with other restaurant [customer-relationship management] services such as TouchBistro and Toast,” he wrote.\nAt the same time, the acquisition is an example of one way Squarespace has “smartly diversified into selling not just physical goods online but also adding calendar/scheduling capabilities (restaurant or gym reservations), content sales, and subscriptions,” he continued.\nMarketing Bucks\nSquarespace’s marketing and sales costs are growing far faster than its revenue. The company incurred $3.1 million in such expenses last year, up from $1.7 million in 2019, making for a 45% increase, whereas revenue was up 28% in the same span.\nThe company’s podcast advertisements may be familiar to frequent listeners, though Squarespace notes in its prospectus that it advertises its services broadly, using “online keyword search, sponsorships and celebrity endorsements, television, podcasts, print and online advertising, email and social media marketing.”\nAmong its risk factors, Squarespace points to the possibility that Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google could change its algorithm or raise the costs of its search-engine-marketing tools.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQSP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103438944,"gmtCreate":1619798766088,"gmtModify":1704272604682,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Cool[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Cool[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103438944","repostId":"1142063705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196516209,"gmtCreate":1621073169001,"gmtModify":1704352696609,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCMC\">$Healthier Choices Management Corp.(HCMC)$</a>Waiting...","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCMC\">$Healthier Choices Management Corp.(HCMC)$</a>Waiting...","text":"$Healthier Choices Management Corp.(HCMC)$Waiting...","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/949a2d2bd4c23aaa8d1d63ad94cce028","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196516209","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579605390417452","authorId":"3579605390417452","name":"YQ17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27a39a8720408cb33a5ee4fb46fdc580","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579605390417452","idStr":"3579605390417452"},"content":"Okok...all thE best","text":"Okok...all thE best","html":"Okok...all thE best"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193015916,"gmtCreate":1620740163535,"gmtModify":1704347647164,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193015916","repostId":"1199341916","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199341916","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620736561,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199341916?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-11 20:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199341916","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As Mark Hulbert noted recently, “everyone” is worrying about a “bubble” in the stock market. To wit:. “To appreciate how widespread current concern about a bubble is, consider the accompanying chart of data from Google Trends. It plots the relative frequency of Google searches based on the term ‘stock market bubble.’ Notice that this frequency has recently jumped to a far-higher level than at any other point over the last five years.”“My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, ","content":"<p><b><i>\"If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?”</i></b>That was a great question I got over the weekend.&nbsp;As a&nbsp;<i>“contrarian”</i>&nbsp;investor, it is usually when&nbsp;<i>“everyone”</i>&nbsp;is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen.</p>\n<p>As&nbsp;<b><i>Mark Hulbert noted recently</i></b>,&nbsp;<i>“everyone”</i>&nbsp;is worrying about a<i>&nbsp;“bubble”</i>&nbsp;in the stock market. To wit:</p>\n<p><i>“To appreciate how widespread current concern about a bubble is, consider the accompanying chart of data from Google Trends. It plots the relative frequency of Google searches based on the term ‘stock market bubble.’ Notice that this frequency has recently jumped to a far-higher level than at any other point over the last five years.”</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2a152e3037789e73c80d5c89bf4141\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What Is A Bubble?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b><i>“My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth ‘real McCoy’ bubble of my investment career.</i></b>\n <i>The great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain, but at least I think we know now that we’re in one.”</i>\n <b><i>&nbsp;–</i></b>\n <i>Jeremy Grantham</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>What is the definition of a bubble?&nbsp; According to&nbsp;<i>Investopedia:</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“A bubble is a market cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets.</i>\n <i><b>Typically, what creates a bubble is a surge in asset prices driven by exuberant market behavior.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;During a bubble, assets typically trade at a price</i>\n <i><b>that greatly exceeds the asset’s intrinsic value. Rather, the price does not align with thefundamentals of the asset.</b></i>\n <i>“</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>This definition is suitable for our discussion; there are three components of a&nbsp;<i>“bubble.”</i><i><b>The&nbsp;first two, price and valuation,</b></i>&nbsp;are readily dismissed during the inflation phase.&nbsp;Jeremy Grantham once produced the following chart of 40-years of price bubbles in the markets. During the inflation phase, each was readily dismissed under the guise&nbsp;<i>“this time is different.”</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367ada4ec5d5a7c35f8e670e0224fc6b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"342\"></p>\n<p><b>We are interested in the</b><b><i>“third”</i></b><b>&nbsp;component of</b><b><i>“bubbles,”</i></b><b>&nbsp;which is investor psychology.</b></p>\n<p><b>A Bubble In Psychology</b></p>\n<p>As&nbsp;<i><b>Howard Marks previously noted:</b></i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“It’s the swings of psychology that get people into the biggest trouble. Especially since investors’ emotions invariably swing in the wrong direction at the wrong time.</i>\n <i><b>When things are going well people become greedy and enthusiastic. When times are troubled, people become fearful and reticent. That’s just the wrong thing to do. It’s important to control fear and greed.”</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Currently, it’s difficult for investors to become any more enthusiastic about market returns.&nbsp;<i>(</i><i><b>The RIAPro Fear/Greed Index</b></i><i>&nbsp;compiles measures of equity allocation and market sentiment. The index level is</i><i><b>not a component</b></i><i>&nbsp;of the measure that runs from 0 to 100.</i><i><b>The current reading is 99.9, which is a historical record.)</b></i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137bb4e88e92ca8b22df63ffc61e387c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"334\"></p>\n<p>Such is an interesting juxtaposition. On the one hand, there is a rising recognition of a&nbsp;<i>“bubble,”</i>&nbsp;but investors are unwilling to reduce “equity risk” for&nbsp;<i>“fear of missing out or F.O.M.O.”</i>Such was a point noted explicitly by Mark:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“Rather than responding by taking some chips off the table, however, many began freely admitting a bubble formed.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;They no longer tried to justify higher prices on fundamentals. Rather,</i>\n <i><b>they justified it instead in terms of the market’s momentum.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;Prices should keep going up as FOMO seduces more investors to jump on the bandwagon.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>In other words, investors have fully adopted the&nbsp;<i>“Greater Fool Theory.”</i></p>\n<p>Okay, Boomer!</p>\n<p>I know. The discussion of&nbsp;<i>“valuations”</i>&nbsp;is an old-fashioned idea relegated to investors of an older era. Such was evident in the pushback on Charlie Munger’s comments about Bitcoin recently:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i>\n <i><b>While Munger has never been a bitcoin advocate, his dislike crystalized into something close to hatred.</b></i>\n <i>Looking back over the past 52 weeks, the reason for Munger’s anger becomes apparent with Berkshire rising only 50.5% against bitcoin’s more than 500% gain.”&nbsp;– Coindesk</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>In 1999, when Buffett spoke out against&nbsp;<i>“Dot.com”</i>&nbsp;stocks, he got dismissed with a similar ire of&nbsp;<b><i>“investing with Warren Buffett is like driving ‘Dad’s old Pontiac.'”</i></b></p>\n<p>Today, young investors are not interested in the&nbsp;<i>“pearls of wisdom”</i>&nbsp;from experienced investors. Today, they are&nbsp;<i>“out of touch,”</i>&nbsp;with the market’s<i>&nbsp;“new reality.”</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“The big benefit of TikTok is it allows users to dole out and obtain information in short, easily digestible video bites, also called TikToks.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;And that can make unfamiliar, complex topics, such as personal finance and investing, more palatable to a younger audience.That advice runs the gamut, from general information about home buying or retirement savings to specific stock picks and investment ideas.</i>\n <i><b>Rob Shields, a 22-year-old, self-taught options trader who has more than 163,000 followers on TikTok, posts TikToks under the username stock_genius on topics such as popular stocks to watch, how to find good stocks, and basic trading strategies.” –&nbsp;WSJ:</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Of course, the problem with information doled out by 22-year olds is they were 10-year olds during the last</b><i><b>“bear market.”</b></i>Given the lack of experience of investing during such a market, as opposed to Warren Buffett who has survived several, is the eventual destruction of capital.</p>\n<p><b>Plenty Of Analogies</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“There is no shortage of current analogies, of course. Take Dogecoin, created as a joke with no fundamental value.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;As a&nbsp;recent Wall Street Journal article outlined, the Dogecoin ‘serves no purpose and, unlike Bitcoin, faces no limit on the number of coins that exist.’</i>\n <i><b>Yet investors flock to it, for no other apparent reason than its sharp rise.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;Billy Markus, the co-creator of dogecoin, said to the Wall Street Journal, ‘This is absurd. I haven’t seen anything like it. It’s one of those things that once it starts going up, it might keep going up.’” – Mark Hulbert</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>That exuberance shows up with professionals as well.<b>&nbsp;As of the end of April, the National Association Of Investment Managers asset allocation was 103%.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c412f208aa700b3f7ccb35d3b7d4e923\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"328\"></p>\n<p>As Dana Lyons noted previously:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Regardless of the investment acumen of any group (we think it is very high among NAAIM members),</i>\n <i><b>once the collective investment opinion or posture becomes too one-sided, it can be an indication that some market action may be necessary to correct such consensus.</b></i>\n <i>“</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Give Me More</b></p>\n<p>Of course, margin debt, which is the epitome of “<i>speculative appetite,”</i>&nbsp;soared in recent months.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11b088ecdf04d5036b4f5bb2d67c13d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"327\"></p>\n<p>As stated,&nbsp;<i>“bubbles are about psychology,”</i>&nbsp;which the annual rate of change of leverage shows.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422c963018723e8986826a89a32883e5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"327\"></p>\n<p>Another form of leverage that doesn’t show up in margin debt is ETF’s structured to multiply market returns. These funds have seen record inflows in recent months.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac35f10215d5fcffec35e4e94c952bb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\"></p>\n<p><b>With margin debt reaching levels not seen since the peak of the last cyclical bull market cycle, it should raise some concerns about sustainability.</b>&nbsp;It is NOT the level of leverage that is the problem as leverage increases buying power as markets are rising.&nbsp;<b>The unwinding of this leverage is critically dangerous in the market as the acceleration of</b><b><i>“margin calls”</i></b><b>&nbsp;leads to a vicious downward spiral.</b></p>\n<p>Importantly, this chart<b>&nbsp;does not meanthat a massive market correction is imminent. I</b>t does suggest that leverage, and speculative risk-taking, are likely much further advanced than currently recognized.</p>\n<p><b>Pushing Extremes</b></p>\n<p>Prices are ultimately affected by physics. Moving averages, trend lines, etc., all exert a gravitational pull on prices in both the short and long term.&nbsp;<b>Like a rubber band, when prices get stretched too far in one direction, they have always eventually</b><b><i>“reverted to the mean”</i></b><b>&nbsp;in the most brutal of manners.</b></p>\n<p>The chart below shows the long-term chart of the S&amp;P 500 broken down by several measures: 2 and 3-standard deviations, valuations, relative strength, and deviations from the 3-year moving average.&nbsp;<b>It is worth noting that both standard deviations and distance from the 3-year moving average are at a record.</b></p>\n<p><b>During the last 120-years, overvaluation and extreme deviations NEVER got resolved by markets going sideways.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc311c3fdd527fd911070f7dd841545\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"590\"></p>\n<p>The only missing ingredient for such a correction currently is simply a catalyst to put&nbsp;<i>“fear”</i>&nbsp;into an overly complacent marketplace. Anything from economic disruption, a credit-related crisis, or an unexpected exogenous shock could start the&nbsp;<i>“panic for the exits.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>There is more than adequate evidence a<i>&nbsp;“bubble”</i>&nbsp;exists in markets once again. However, as Mark noted in his commentary:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>‘I have no idea whether the stock market is actually forming a bubble that’s about to break.</i>\n <i><b>But I do know that many bulls are fooling themselves when they think a bubble can’t happen when there is such widespread concern. In fact, one of the distinguishing characteristics of a bubble is just that.”</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>However, he concludes with the most important statement:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“It’s important for all of us to be aware of this bubble psychology,</i>\n <i><b>but especially if you’re a retiree or a near-retiree. That’s because, in that case, your investment horizon is far shorter than for those who are younger.</b></i>\n <i>Therefore, you are less able to recover from the deflation of a market bubble.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Read that statement again.</b></p>\n<p>Millennials are quick to dismiss the&nbsp;<i>“Boomers”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets today for&nbsp;<i>“not getting it.”</i></p>\n<p>No, we get it. We have just been around long enough to know how these things eventually end.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-11 20:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-everyone-sees-it-it-still-bubble><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>\"If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?”That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a “contrarian” investor, it is usually when “everyone” is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen.\nAs...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-everyone-sees-it-it-still-bubble\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-everyone-sees-it-it-still-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199341916","content_text":"\"If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?”That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a “contrarian” investor, it is usually when “everyone” is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen.\nAs Mark Hulbert noted recently, “everyone” is worrying about a “bubble” in the stock market. To wit:\n“To appreciate how widespread current concern about a bubble is, consider the accompanying chart of data from Google Trends. It plots the relative frequency of Google searches based on the term ‘stock market bubble.’ Notice that this frequency has recently jumped to a far-higher level than at any other point over the last five years.”\nWhat Is A Bubble?\n\n“My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth ‘real McCoy’ bubble of my investment career.\nThe great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain, but at least I think we know now that we’re in one.”\n –\nJeremy Grantham\n\nWhat is the definition of a bubble?  According to Investopedia:\n\n“A bubble is a market cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets.\nTypically, what creates a bubble is a surge in asset prices driven by exuberant market behavior.\n During a bubble, assets typically trade at a price\nthat greatly exceeds the asset’s intrinsic value. Rather, the price does not align with thefundamentals of the asset.\n“\n\nThis definition is suitable for our discussion; there are three components of a “bubble.”The first two, price and valuation, are readily dismissed during the inflation phase. Jeremy Grantham once produced the following chart of 40-years of price bubbles in the markets. During the inflation phase, each was readily dismissed under the guise “this time is different.”\n\nWe are interested in the“third” component of“bubbles,” which is investor psychology.\nA Bubble In Psychology\nAs Howard Marks previously noted:\n\n“It’s the swings of psychology that get people into the biggest trouble. Especially since investors’ emotions invariably swing in the wrong direction at the wrong time.\nWhen things are going well people become greedy and enthusiastic. When times are troubled, people become fearful and reticent. That’s just the wrong thing to do. It’s important to control fear and greed.”\n\nCurrently, it’s difficult for investors to become any more enthusiastic about market returns. (The RIAPro Fear/Greed Index compiles measures of equity allocation and market sentiment. The index level isnot a component of the measure that runs from 0 to 100.The current reading is 99.9, which is a historical record.)\n\nSuch is an interesting juxtaposition. On the one hand, there is a rising recognition of a “bubble,” but investors are unwilling to reduce “equity risk” for “fear of missing out or F.O.M.O.”Such was a point noted explicitly by Mark:\n\n“Rather than responding by taking some chips off the table, however, many began freely admitting a bubble formed.\n They no longer tried to justify higher prices on fundamentals. Rather,\nthey justified it instead in terms of the market’s momentum.\n Prices should keep going up as FOMO seduces more investors to jump on the bandwagon.”\n\nIn other words, investors have fully adopted the “Greater Fool Theory.”\nOkay, Boomer!\nI know. The discussion of “valuations” is an old-fashioned idea relegated to investors of an older era. Such was evident in the pushback on Charlie Munger’s comments about Bitcoin recently:\n\n“\nWhile Munger has never been a bitcoin advocate, his dislike crystalized into something close to hatred.\nLooking back over the past 52 weeks, the reason for Munger’s anger becomes apparent with Berkshire rising only 50.5% against bitcoin’s more than 500% gain.” – Coindesk\n\nIn 1999, when Buffett spoke out against “Dot.com” stocks, he got dismissed with a similar ire of “investing with Warren Buffett is like driving ‘Dad’s old Pontiac.'”\nToday, young investors are not interested in the “pearls of wisdom” from experienced investors. Today, they are “out of touch,” with the market’s “new reality.”\n\n“The big benefit of TikTok is it allows users to dole out and obtain information in short, easily digestible video bites, also called TikToks.\n And that can make unfamiliar, complex topics, such as personal finance and investing, more palatable to a younger audience.That advice runs the gamut, from general information about home buying or retirement savings to specific stock picks and investment ideas.\nRob Shields, a 22-year-old, self-taught options trader who has more than 163,000 followers on TikTok, posts TikToks under the username stock_genius on topics such as popular stocks to watch, how to find good stocks, and basic trading strategies.” – WSJ:\n\nOf course, the problem with information doled out by 22-year olds is they were 10-year olds during the last“bear market.”Given the lack of experience of investing during such a market, as opposed to Warren Buffett who has survived several, is the eventual destruction of capital.\nPlenty Of Analogies\n\n“There is no shortage of current analogies, of course. Take Dogecoin, created as a joke with no fundamental value.\n As a recent Wall Street Journal article outlined, the Dogecoin ‘serves no purpose and, unlike Bitcoin, faces no limit on the number of coins that exist.’\nYet investors flock to it, for no other apparent reason than its sharp rise.\n Billy Markus, the co-creator of dogecoin, said to the Wall Street Journal, ‘This is absurd. I haven’t seen anything like it. It’s one of those things that once it starts going up, it might keep going up.’” – Mark Hulbert\n\nThat exuberance shows up with professionals as well. As of the end of April, the National Association Of Investment Managers asset allocation was 103%.\n\nAs Dana Lyons noted previously:\n\n “\n Regardless of the investment acumen of any group (we think it is very high among NAAIM members),\nonce the collective investment opinion or posture becomes too one-sided, it can be an indication that some market action may be necessary to correct such consensus.\n“\n\nGive Me More\nOf course, margin debt, which is the epitome of “speculative appetite,” soared in recent months.\n\nAs stated, “bubbles are about psychology,” which the annual rate of change of leverage shows.\n\nAnother form of leverage that doesn’t show up in margin debt is ETF’s structured to multiply market returns. These funds have seen record inflows in recent months.\n\nWith margin debt reaching levels not seen since the peak of the last cyclical bull market cycle, it should raise some concerns about sustainability. It is NOT the level of leverage that is the problem as leverage increases buying power as markets are rising. The unwinding of this leverage is critically dangerous in the market as the acceleration of“margin calls” leads to a vicious downward spiral.\nImportantly, this chart does not meanthat a massive market correction is imminent. It does suggest that leverage, and speculative risk-taking, are likely much further advanced than currently recognized.\nPushing Extremes\nPrices are ultimately affected by physics. Moving averages, trend lines, etc., all exert a gravitational pull on prices in both the short and long term. Like a rubber band, when prices get stretched too far in one direction, they have always eventually“reverted to the mean” in the most brutal of manners.\nThe chart below shows the long-term chart of the S&P 500 broken down by several measures: 2 and 3-standard deviations, valuations, relative strength, and deviations from the 3-year moving average. It is worth noting that both standard deviations and distance from the 3-year moving average are at a record.\nDuring the last 120-years, overvaluation and extreme deviations NEVER got resolved by markets going sideways.\n\nThe only missing ingredient for such a correction currently is simply a catalyst to put “fear” into an overly complacent marketplace. Anything from economic disruption, a credit-related crisis, or an unexpected exogenous shock could start the “panic for the exits.”\nConclusion\nThere is more than adequate evidence a “bubble” exists in markets once again. However, as Mark noted in his commentary:\n\n‘I have no idea whether the stock market is actually forming a bubble that’s about to break.\nBut I do know that many bulls are fooling themselves when they think a bubble can’t happen when there is such widespread concern. In fact, one of the distinguishing characteristics of a bubble is just that.”\n\nHowever, he concludes with the most important statement:\n\n“It’s important for all of us to be aware of this bubble psychology,\nbut especially if you’re a retiree or a near-retiree. That’s because, in that case, your investment horizon is far shorter than for those who are younger.\nTherefore, you are less able to recover from the deflation of a market bubble.”\n\nRead that statement again.\nMillennials are quick to dismiss the “Boomers” in the financial markets today for “not getting it.”\nNo, we get it. We have just been around long enough to know how these things eventually end.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157567581,"gmtCreate":1625590943543,"gmtModify":1703744591137,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">$DOYU 20210716 7.5 PUT(DOYU)$</a>Die…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">$DOYU 20210716 7.5 PUT(DOYU)$</a>Die…","text":"$DOYU 20210716 7.5 PUT(DOYU)$Die…","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f92b819a966aadfee2d5e07a4d6c17","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157567581","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192860582,"gmtCreate":1621178369646,"gmtModify":1704353654264,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fuyoh!!","listText":"Fuyoh!!","text":"Fuyoh!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192860582","repostId":"1185220705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104537658,"gmtCreate":1620397328074,"gmtModify":1704343143251,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wonderful[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Wonderful[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Wonderful[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104537658","repostId":"2133750049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108043078,"gmtCreate":1619966862394,"gmtModify":1704336846690,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Marvellous[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Marvellous[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Marvellous[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108043078","repostId":"2132603015","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132603015","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1619872075,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132603015?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-01 20:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Berkshire Hathaway Q1 Earnings Here！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132603015","media":"Reuters","summary":"May 1 (Reuters) - Berkshire Hathaway Inc   :Full report here！* Q1 NET EARNINGS ATTRIBUTABLE TO BERKS","content":"<p>May 1 (Reuters) - Berkshire Hathaway Inc   :</p><p><a href=\"https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/1stqtr21.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Full report here！</a></p><p>* Q1 NET EARNINGS ATTRIBUTABLE TO BERKSHIRE SHAREHOLDERS $11.71 BILLION VERSUS YEAR-EARLIER $49.75 BILLION LOSS</p><p>* Q1 OPERATING EARNINGS $7.02 BILLION VERSUS $5.87 BILLION</p><p>* Q1 NET EARNINGS PER AVERAGE EQUIVALENT CLASS A SHARE $7,638</p><p>* Q1 NET EARNINGS FROM INVESTMENT AND DERIVATIVE GAINS $4.69 BILLION VERSUS YEAR-EARLIER $55.62 BILLION NET LOSS</p><p>* AT MARCH 31, 2021, INSURANCE FLOAT WAS ABOUT $140 BILLION, INCREASE OF ABOUT $2 BILLION SINCE YEAREND 2020</p><p>* ABOUT $6.6 BILLION WAS USED TO PURCHASE SHARES OF CLASS A AND CLASS B COMMON STOCK DURING THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2021</p><p>Source text for Eikon:    Further company coverage:</p><p><a href=\"https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/1stqtr21.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Full article of Berkshire Hathaway Q1 report</a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Berkshire Hathaway Q1 Earnings Here！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBerkshire Hathaway Q1 Earnings Here！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-01 20:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>May 1 (Reuters) - Berkshire Hathaway Inc   :</p><p><a href=\"https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/1stqtr21.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Full report here！</a></p><p>* Q1 NET EARNINGS ATTRIBUTABLE TO BERKSHIRE SHAREHOLDERS $11.71 BILLION VERSUS YEAR-EARLIER $49.75 BILLION LOSS</p><p>* Q1 OPERATING EARNINGS $7.02 BILLION VERSUS $5.87 BILLION</p><p>* Q1 NET EARNINGS PER AVERAGE EQUIVALENT CLASS A SHARE $7,638</p><p>* Q1 NET EARNINGS FROM INVESTMENT AND DERIVATIVE GAINS $4.69 BILLION VERSUS YEAR-EARLIER $55.62 BILLION NET LOSS</p><p>* AT MARCH 31, 2021, INSURANCE FLOAT WAS ABOUT $140 BILLION, INCREASE OF ABOUT $2 BILLION SINCE YEAREND 2020</p><p>* ABOUT $6.6 BILLION WAS USED TO PURCHASE SHARES OF CLASS A AND CLASS B COMMON STOCK DURING THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2021</p><p>Source text for Eikon:    Further company coverage:</p><p><a href=\"https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/1stqtr21.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Full article of Berkshire Hathaway Q1 report</a></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2132603015","content_text":"May 1 (Reuters) - Berkshire Hathaway Inc   :Full report here！* Q1 NET EARNINGS ATTRIBUTABLE TO BERKSHIRE SHAREHOLDERS $11.71 BILLION VERSUS YEAR-EARLIER $49.75 BILLION LOSS* Q1 OPERATING EARNINGS $7.02 BILLION VERSUS $5.87 BILLION* Q1 NET EARNINGS PER AVERAGE EQUIVALENT CLASS A SHARE $7,638* Q1 NET EARNINGS FROM INVESTMENT AND DERIVATIVE GAINS $4.69 BILLION VERSUS YEAR-EARLIER $55.62 BILLION NET LOSS* AT MARCH 31, 2021, INSURANCE FLOAT WAS ABOUT $140 BILLION, INCREASE OF ABOUT $2 BILLION SINCE YEAREND 2020* ABOUT $6.6 BILLION WAS USED TO PURCHASE SHARES OF CLASS A AND CLASS B COMMON STOCK DURING THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2021Source text for Eikon:    Further company coverage:Full article of Berkshire Hathaway Q1 report","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103726099,"gmtCreate":1619825521611,"gmtModify":1704335323860,"author":{"id":"3578671423672074","authorId":"3578671423672074","name":"WaiKeat6789","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06933547917cf61d68a480d7c087a86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578671423672074","idStr":"3578671423672074"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like!","listText":"Like!","text":"Like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103726099","repostId":"1146129324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146129324","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619795610,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146129324?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-30 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Question Tesla Investors Need to Ask Themselves","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146129324","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Electric-car companyTeslahas now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year prior. It would appear, at least at first glance, that the electric-vehicle  pioneer is on the right track in terms of profitability.The problem is that these profits aren't really coming from the cars that Tesla sells. The company currently generates hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profit each quarter fro","content":"<p>Electric-car company<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)has now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year prior. It would appear, at least at first glance, that the electric-vehicle (EV) pioneer is on the right track in terms of profitability.</p>\n<p>The problem is that these profits aren't really coming from the cars that Tesla sells. The company currently generates hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profit each quarter from the sale of regulatory credits, a side effect of other automakers not making enough zero-emission vehicles to meet regulatory requirements.</p>\n<p>Regulatory credit sales totaled $518 million in the first quarter, accounting for all of Tesla's profit and then some. This has been the case in previous quarters, as well. In fact, after backing out regulatory credits from Tesla's net income, the company has been unprofitable for six-straight quarters.</p>\n<p>Tesla's bottom line got an additional boost in the first quarter from a gain onthe sale of<b>Bitcoin</b>to the tune of $101 million, which showed up as a reduction in costs. The picture doesn't look so rosy when both regulatory credits and Bitcoin gains are excluded:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0906160cab581f4c8a599b7d0965d34\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>DATA SOURCE: TESLA. CHART BY AUTHOR.</p>\n<p>There's no question that Tesla's growth is impressive, but there's also no question that the core business of making and selling cars is not turning a profit. The question Tesla investors need to ask themselves is: If Tesla isn't profitable now, when there's little to no competition in electric vehicles in the United States, what's going to happen when a deluge of competition fromtraditional automakersarrives?</p>\n<p>A ton of competition is coming</p>\n<p>Tesla's brand has a cult following, so some people will be buying Tesla vehicles regardless of the other options available. But that's not likely to be the case for most people.</p>\n<p>The number of electric vehicles available for purchase in the U.S. is set to explode in the coming years.<b>General Motors</b>(NYSE:GM)is planning to launch 30 EVs globally by 2025, with two-thirds set to be sold in North America. The company is aiming to sell 1 million EVs annually in North America by 2025.</p>\n<p>Those models include electric versions of the company's GMC Hummer and Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck. Tesla has a loyal customer base, but so does GM. Someone who's been a GM truck buyer for years is likely to stick with GM when they decide to switch to an electric vehicle.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c651279799dfdf96552379a7b5d448a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>IMAGE SOURCE: GM.</p>\n<p><b>Ford</b>(NYSE:F)is also pouring resources into electric vehicles, allocating $29 billion for electric and autonomous vehicles through 2025. The company's plans include anelectric version of its F-150 pickup truck, which should hit the production lines by mid-2022. Given GM's and Ford's plans, it will not be easy for Tesla to steal away market share in the lucrative pickup-truck segment.</p>\n<p>Other car companies have big plans, as well.<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTC:VWAGY)already sells over 200,000 EVs annually andexpects that number to double this year. The company is aiming to sell roughly 2 million EVs annually by 2025 and expects to launch 70 EV models by 2030.<b>Toyota</b>(NYSE:TM)willlaunch 15 new electric vehicles by 2025, some of which will be under the new Toyota bZ sub-brand. The list goes on.</p>\n<p>Not only will all these electric vehicles provide consumers with a bevy of options beyond Tesla, but they'll also deprive Tesla of its regulatory-credit income as other automakers churn out an increasing number of EVs.</p>\n<p>None of this is to say that Tesla can't be successful in a world where it faces more competition. But turning a profit is is going to get harder with each passing year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Question Tesla Investors Need to Ask Themselves</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Question Tesla Investors Need to Ask Themselves\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/1-question-tesla-investors-need-to-ask-themselves/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Electric-car companyTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)has now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/1-question-tesla-investors-need-to-ask-themselves/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/1-question-tesla-investors-need-to-ask-themselves/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146129324","content_text":"Electric-car companyTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)has now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year prior. It would appear, at least at first glance, that the electric-vehicle (EV) pioneer is on the right track in terms of profitability.\nThe problem is that these profits aren't really coming from the cars that Tesla sells. The company currently generates hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profit each quarter from the sale of regulatory credits, a side effect of other automakers not making enough zero-emission vehicles to meet regulatory requirements.\nRegulatory credit sales totaled $518 million in the first quarter, accounting for all of Tesla's profit and then some. This has been the case in previous quarters, as well. In fact, after backing out regulatory credits from Tesla's net income, the company has been unprofitable for six-straight quarters.\nTesla's bottom line got an additional boost in the first quarter from a gain onthe sale ofBitcointo the tune of $101 million, which showed up as a reduction in costs. The picture doesn't look so rosy when both regulatory credits and Bitcoin gains are excluded:\n\nDATA SOURCE: TESLA. CHART BY AUTHOR.\nThere's no question that Tesla's growth is impressive, but there's also no question that the core business of making and selling cars is not turning a profit. The question Tesla investors need to ask themselves is: If Tesla isn't profitable now, when there's little to no competition in electric vehicles in the United States, what's going to happen when a deluge of competition fromtraditional automakersarrives?\nA ton of competition is coming\nTesla's brand has a cult following, so some people will be buying Tesla vehicles regardless of the other options available. But that's not likely to be the case for most people.\nThe number of electric vehicles available for purchase in the U.S. is set to explode in the coming years.General Motors(NYSE:GM)is planning to launch 30 EVs globally by 2025, with two-thirds set to be sold in North America. The company is aiming to sell 1 million EVs annually in North America by 2025.\nThose models include electric versions of the company's GMC Hummer and Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck. Tesla has a loyal customer base, but so does GM. Someone who's been a GM truck buyer for years is likely to stick with GM when they decide to switch to an electric vehicle.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GM.\nFord(NYSE:F)is also pouring resources into electric vehicles, allocating $29 billion for electric and autonomous vehicles through 2025. The company's plans include anelectric version of its F-150 pickup truck, which should hit the production lines by mid-2022. Given GM's and Ford's plans, it will not be easy for Tesla to steal away market share in the lucrative pickup-truck segment.\nOther car companies have big plans, as well.Volkswagen(OTC:VWAGY)already sells over 200,000 EVs annually andexpects that number to double this year. The company is aiming to sell roughly 2 million EVs annually by 2025 and expects to launch 70 EV models by 2030.Toyota(NYSE:TM)willlaunch 15 new electric vehicles by 2025, some of which will be under the new Toyota bZ sub-brand. The list goes on.\nNot only will all these electric vehicles provide consumers with a bevy of options beyond Tesla, but they'll also deprive Tesla of its regulatory-credit income as other automakers churn out an increasing number of EVs.\nNone of this is to say that Tesla can't be successful in a world where it faces more competition. But turning a profit is is going to get harder with each passing 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