Cy168 personal page - To The Moon

Cy168

Cy168

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2021-06-18

What !!!???

2021-06-16

$Gold Resource(GORO)$Why again

2021-06-13

Up up up

2021-06-12

Join joint jOy

@小虎活动:【老虎7週年】集卡瓜分百萬獎金

2021-06-11

up up up

2021-06-09

Ok

Competition and Dilemma Faced by Vipshop: Pipelinization of Special Sales

2021-06-08

Vs goro

2021-06-07

?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-05

up up up

2021-06-02

up up up

2021-05-28

oh yeah

[Change] AMC cinemas have risen by more than 18%, and have risen by about 980% year-to-date

2021-05-28

Niu

Reminder: Due to Memorial Day, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on May 31

2021-05-22

I believe I can fly

The commodity rally has pressed the pause button, but the benefits behind it are still there?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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!!!???","listText":"What !!!???","text":"What !!!???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34bcbd0d81e3e650883750eea262977f","width":"1125","height":"3747"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166047858","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169240036,"gmtCreate":1623839863025,"gmtModify":1703821006037,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GORO\">$Gold Resource(GORO)$</a>Why again&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GORO\">$Gold Resource(GORO)$</a>Why again&nbsp;","text":"$Gold Resource(GORO)$Why again","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8913c5ce3d566ff67fad7034422987a1","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169240036","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182664694,"gmtCreate":1623570034218,"gmtModify":1704206421076,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up&nbsp;","listText":"Up up up&nbsp;","text":"Up up up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/502b780bcede228214b375325c4e3a4a","width":"1125","height":"3387"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182664694","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186359163,"gmtCreate":1623474908452,"gmtModify":1704204688864,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Join joint jOy","listText":"Join joint jOy","text":"Join joint jOy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186359163","repostId":"114899451","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":114899451,"gmtCreate":1623063308869,"gmtModify":1704195267674,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a4f89726b3f6319d06a0075bf9ff76","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎7週年】集卡瓜分百萬獎金","htmlText":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可參與活動</a> &#x1;如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。&#x1;如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。&#x1; 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","listText":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可參與活動</a> &#x1;如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。&#x1;如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。&#x1; 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","text":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ 戳我即可參與活動 \u0001如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。\u0001如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 \u0001 \u0001如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。\u0001 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP > 我的 > 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd956a9c2fc9ee609753ae5f967072a7","width":"415","height":"616"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e88357b534f504b3088bc22f577a83","width":"415","height":"326"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe0400cc487fb56f85d401ab03df4d5e","width":"415","height":"356"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114899451","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181935988,"gmtCreate":1623370017744,"gmtModify":1704201764002,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"up up up","listText":"up up up","text":"up up up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/218e6ee862b988dc3a999780329c7eec","width":"1125","height":"3567"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181935988","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189180327,"gmtCreate":1623247881169,"gmtModify":1704199311125,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189180327","repostId":"2142216539","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142216539","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623247578,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142216539?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 22:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Competition and Dilemma Faced by Vipshop: Pipelinization of Special Sales","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142216539","media":"美港商业评论","summary":"多年以后，当沈亚回忆往事的时候，犯下的最大错误，不是重金砸向了物流，而是没有在拼多多崛起之前，把唯品会打造成一个用户数过亿的电商。\n\n发布2021年一季报前，外界都觉得唯品会的业绩不会有问题。我认识一","content":"<p>Many years later, when Shen Ya recalled the past, the biggest mistake she made was not that she spent a lot of money on logistics, but that she did not<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Before its rise, Vipshop will be built into an e-commerce company with hundreds of millions of users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40487789de570b4fa66d6b9c878da7ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the release of the first quarter report for 2021, the outside world felt that there would be no problem with Vipshop's performance. I know a US dollar fund that holds Vipshop. Before the financial report, I even speculated that the annual purchase amount of a single SVIP was less than 500 yuan from the 16,000 yuan announced by Vipshop. Before the financial report, many US dollar funds were basically optimistic about Vipshop's Q1 financial report.</p><p>But after the financial report was released, everyone discovered that Vipshop's growth was so weak. In particular, the company's outlook for the second quarter is 3% lower than expected. Another problem is the retention of new users. Vipshop's quarterly new customer retention is less than 30%. And Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The data are all above 80%. If we go deep into review Vipshop's journey in the past few years, we will find that today's problems are completely reasonable and natural.</p><p><b>Behind the low-speed growth: the problems faced by Vipshop</b></p><p>If the stock price of review Vipshop has increased in the past three years, it can be regarded as a very dazzling performance of the e-commerce industry. In 2018, Vipshop once fell to only US $3 billion. During the Spring Festival this year, Vipshop once rose to $26 billion. The three-year increase is nearly tenfold.</p><p>But when we look at Vipshop's stock price increase, where are the main driving factors? Valuation repair + profit growth. At the beginning of 2018, Pinjun, Vipshop's self-built express delivery brand, had not yet been sold to SF Express, resulting in a particularly high overall performance cost, which exceeded 9% in 2017, and was ultimately reflected in the net profit margin, which was only about 3%. Therefore, although Vipshop's revenue is rising, before 2018, Vipshop's profits did not rise significantly, mainly dragged down by its own Pinjun.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f198fda8406ff0423662a2bb409ce4e6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Vipshop's fulfillment expense ratio has dropped from a maximum of 9.5% to 6.2% now)</p><p>Until Vipshop packaged and sold Pinjun Express to SF Express in 2019, all Vipshop's products were shipped by SF Express, and the performance expense ratio dropped from 9% to about 6%. This saved 3 points, It has become an improved net profit margin. Therefore, let's look at Vipshop's profit, which has increased from US $300 million in 2018 to US $1 billion in 2020.</p><p>If you only look at profits, Vipshop will be a very good company. In the A-share market, there are more than 3,000 listed companies with annual profits exceeding 6 billion yuan, which is also very rare. But if we look at Vipshop from the perspective of Internet companies, we will find that it is completely unqualified:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3981cbbe2fa18f97229938936ea9187f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The first is the Bug of user growth. Vipshop's quarterly active users have only more than doubled from 20 million in 2015 to 45.8 million in the latest quarter. If you compare Pinduoduo's growth, it is a bit biased. Let's take JD.COM as a comparison. Vipshop's user growth will be extremely slow. As for the growth of new customers in Vipshop, I think there are several main reasons:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cb51ab6cc2b0230b57433002ee8c16\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Number of active buyers in JD.com)</p><p>The positioning is narrow. Since its establishment, Vipshop has clearly defined itself as \"a company that does special sales.\" After its listing in 2012, Vipshop also launched many brand advertisements, all of which were marketed around \"special sales\". But this positioning, among the vast audience, is still relatively \"vertical\". Discount is the \"general demand\" of the public, but Vipshop's advertisements have not been transmitted to the public. In other words: Vipshop's past advertising strategy has not achieved good user growth returns.</p><p>The product strategy is seriously insufficient to attract new users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb93475c24644f346f50ddd234e7ef33\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Vipshop's user repurchase rate: official website)</p><p>If we measure Vipshop by the standard of repurchase rate, it is undoubtedly a very successful retail company. Among the 45.8 million active users in the first quarter of 2021, 40.5 million were old users who made repeated purchases, accounting for 88.5%. Since 2015, this indicator has continued to show an upward trend. However, if you only rely on old users and repurchases, it is easy to face the bottleneck of growth. And the reason why new users retain banks, I think, has a lot to do with products:</p><p>Let me first quote a comment from a snowball friend: \"For buyers, clothing should choose from more, fashionable styles, fast new products, and durable shopping; for sellers, the platform should be able to ensure that it is sensitive to buyers' needs and design. Guidance, guidance on inventory management. However, Vipshop cannot meet the most mainstream needs of women's clothing users, and the seller can only meet inventory management. The result is that the user stickiness is high, but the volume is not large. \"</p><p>Corresponding to the product side of Vipshop, the supply side can only achieve limited styles, limited new products, and limited demand. If it corresponds to the demand side: users who have particularly high requirements for styles and trends may not be well satisfied. Corresponding to age, the younger the girl, the more she chases the trend. Therefore, corresponding to the customer base of Vipshop, new customers are mainly those born in the 90s and 95s. The reason why the retention rate of this part is less than 30% is, to a large extent, that styles cannot be presented to them in large quantities at Vipshop. So, in the end, after these people bought for the first time, they went to Taobao and Tmall.</p><p>The dilemma of attracting new retention of vertical e-commerce. Although Vipshop's revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan last year, in terms of positioning, the company cannot be called a platform-based e-commerce company. It is still a small and beautiful vertical e-commerce: Vipshop's clothing, shoes and hats account for about 45% of its total revenue. As a vertical e-commerce company, user needs must only be concentrated in a narrow range. For example, in terms of category mentality, when users come to Vipshop, the first thing they think of must be clothes and shoes, not electrical appliances, mobile phones, and food. This leads to one user, many other shopping needs, which can only be transferred to another e-commerce.</p><p>Bottom line: The mind is too vertical, which is both an advantage and a huge disadvantage. Users will only buy this kind of goods on this platform, while other long-tail goods are all eaten by Taobao and Pinduoduo.</p><p>The difficulties faced by unlisted vertical e-commerce companies are similar to those of Vipshop: a vertical e-commerce company for mothers and babies I know, at its peak in 2016, had a GMV of more than 10 billion yuan, and last year it was less than 4 billion yuan. It has shrunk by 60%. Corresponding to the company's valuation, it has shrunk by 50% compared to five years ago.</p><p>Maternal and infant e-commerce companies suffer even more on LTV. A mom, when the child grows up, never comes back. Compared with maternal and infant e-commerce, Vipshop's clothing, shoes and hats are the lifelong needs of users. Therefore, the stickiness of old users is particularly high.</p><p><b>Competition and Dilemma: Pipelinization of Special Sales</b></p><p>The opponent Vipshop faces is not another Vipshop, but other e-commerce companies. For example, Pinduoduo's broken code clearance channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2645bdfac50010ce610f48332896390c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1054\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When Pinduoduo's broken code channel first came out, I was very worried for a while, because Pinduoduo's positioning is naturally suitable for clearing inventory and tail goods. But at that time, I compared Vipshop's so-called \"buyer's advantage\" and found that Pinduoduo had little impact on Vipshop in the women's clothing category. Because the choice of women's clothing styles is extremely demanding. But these comparisons, today, need to be rethought. Why?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5962971ad162b4e3290fd2e6685c0887\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1161\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The scale of users is completely of the same order of magnitude. Pinduoduo has 800 million annual active users and 700 million monthly active users. Although we can't get the specific data of the broken code clearance channel, from the penetration rate, even if the number of users is 5%, the monthly purchase users of this channel are 35 million. The quarterly monthly active users of Vipshop are only 45 million. In the special field of tail goods, Pinduoduo's gross estimate is completely on the same order of magnitude as Vipshop's.</p><p>What is the difference between Pinduoduo's tail goods and Vipshop? What we talked about above is the number of users. In terms of commodity supply, we must first admit that Pinduoduo's supply side is not as good as Vipshop. But if we go back to the tail goods themselves, the requirements for buyers are far overestimated. Why?</p><p>Vipshop itself mainly sells on consignment. Different from the buyout system of TJX in the United States, most of Vipshop's special sales models are still mainly consignment models. What do you mean? It is what inventory the brand owner has and what goods Vipshop will sell. Vipshop itself does not eat the brand's inventory. The tail goods of the brand owner will first enter the warehouse of Vipshop, and then Vipshop will take photos, pack and deliver them uniformly. If they can't be sold out, Vipshop will return them to the brand.</p><p>For Vipshop, its more role is a \"sewer pipe\". The role of buyers in it will participate in judging some styles, but it does not dominate. The reason is also very simple: if buyers can judge which styles sell well, why doesn't Vipshop learn TJX's \"buyout system\"? After all, a buyout costs less.</p><p>Since there is no buyout, and the inventory is still cleared by volume sales, the core competition is who clears more and clears faster. It is more appropriate to compare Vipshop to a \"sewer pipe\". Before the birth of Pinduoduo and Doukuai e-commerce, the management in the country was the thickest and the water flow was the fastest. But today is different. Today, Pinduoduo's tail goods are on sale. Although the pipeline is not as thick as Vipshop, this pipeline is growing very fast. In addition, there are new channels such as live e-commerce.</p><p>These new pipelines do not necessarily subvert Vipshop, but they have greatly diverted the water in Vipshop pipelines. Therefore, let's look at Vipshop's operating income in the past three years, which is: 84.5 billion yuan, 92.9 billion yuan, and 101.8 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of only 10%. The growth rate of e-commerce market is around 20%.</p><p>Today, Vipshop, the tail cargo pipeline, encountered Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">Douyin</a>Kuaishou is a huge challenge, and the growth rate of the e-commerce market is also lower than three years ago. For Vipshop itself, at present, the biggest advantage is still the repurchase of old users, but this part cannot give it a future valuation. Vipshop's stock price fell from US $30 to US $20. In addition to the mediocre quarterly report, the market is more worried that its competitive advantage will be challenged.</p><p>The pipeline of tail goods is a true portrayal of what Vipshop is facing today. Whether this pipeline can be differentiated is currently a test of the ability of the management. For example, whether special and exclusive models can be customized for SVIP. Compared with other channels, Vipshop will exclusively buy out some goods on the commodity side in the future. These are the challenges of the moment.</p><p>The biggest challenge is that under homogeneous competition, Vipshop's new user growth and retention rate is far lower than that of general e-commerce. The current valuation, even based on an annual profit of US $1 billion, still has 15 times PE. And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">Momo</a>This kind of Internet company that does not grow has only 8-9 times PE. As a former shareholder of Vipshop, I hope Vipshop will not degenerate into a company with a PE below 10 times.</p><p>For some time to come, Vipshop will still be a profitable company, but in the secondary market, Vipshop may not be a valuable company. Because the growth is getting slower and slower, the challenges are getting bigger and bigger, and there is only that little profit left.</p>","source":"lsy1622099900134","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Competition and Dilemma Faced by Vipshop: Pipelinization of Special Sales</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCompetition and Dilemma Faced by Vipshop: Pipelinization of Special Sales\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美港商业评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-09 22:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Many years later, when Shen Ya recalled the past, the biggest mistake she made was not that she spent a lot of money on logistics, but that she did not<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Before its rise, Vipshop will be built into an e-commerce company with hundreds of millions of users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40487789de570b4fa66d6b9c878da7ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the release of the first quarter report for 2021, the outside world felt that there would be no problem with Vipshop's performance. I know a US dollar fund that holds Vipshop. Before the financial report, I even speculated that the annual purchase amount of a single SVIP was less than 500 yuan from the 16,000 yuan announced by Vipshop. Before the financial report, many US dollar funds were basically optimistic about Vipshop's Q1 financial report.</p><p>But after the financial report was released, everyone discovered that Vipshop's growth was so weak. In particular, the company's outlook for the second quarter is 3% lower than expected. Another problem is the retention of new users. Vipshop's quarterly new customer retention is less than 30%. And Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The data are all above 80%. If we go deep into review Vipshop's journey in the past few years, we will find that today's problems are completely reasonable and natural.</p><p><b>Behind the low-speed growth: the problems faced by Vipshop</b></p><p>If the stock price of review Vipshop has increased in the past three years, it can be regarded as a very dazzling performance of the e-commerce industry. In 2018, Vipshop once fell to only US $3 billion. During the Spring Festival this year, Vipshop once rose to $26 billion. The three-year increase is nearly tenfold.</p><p>But when we look at Vipshop's stock price increase, where are the main driving factors? Valuation repair + profit growth. At the beginning of 2018, Pinjun, Vipshop's self-built express delivery brand, had not yet been sold to SF Express, resulting in a particularly high overall performance cost, which exceeded 9% in 2017, and was ultimately reflected in the net profit margin, which was only about 3%. Therefore, although Vipshop's revenue is rising, before 2018, Vipshop's profits did not rise significantly, mainly dragged down by its own Pinjun.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f198fda8406ff0423662a2bb409ce4e6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Vipshop's fulfillment expense ratio has dropped from a maximum of 9.5% to 6.2% now)</p><p>Until Vipshop packaged and sold Pinjun Express to SF Express in 2019, all Vipshop's products were shipped by SF Express, and the performance expense ratio dropped from 9% to about 6%. This saved 3 points, It has become an improved net profit margin. Therefore, let's look at Vipshop's profit, which has increased from US $300 million in 2018 to US $1 billion in 2020.</p><p>If you only look at profits, Vipshop will be a very good company. In the A-share market, there are more than 3,000 listed companies with annual profits exceeding 6 billion yuan, which is also very rare. But if we look at Vipshop from the perspective of Internet companies, we will find that it is completely unqualified:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3981cbbe2fa18f97229938936ea9187f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The first is the Bug of user growth. Vipshop's quarterly active users have only more than doubled from 20 million in 2015 to 45.8 million in the latest quarter. If you compare Pinduoduo's growth, it is a bit biased. Let's take JD.COM as a comparison. Vipshop's user growth will be extremely slow. As for the growth of new customers in Vipshop, I think there are several main reasons:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cb51ab6cc2b0230b57433002ee8c16\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Number of active buyers in JD.com)</p><p>The positioning is narrow. Since its establishment, Vipshop has clearly defined itself as \"a company that does special sales.\" After its listing in 2012, Vipshop also launched many brand advertisements, all of which were marketed around \"special sales\". But this positioning, among the vast audience, is still relatively \"vertical\". Discount is the \"general demand\" of the public, but Vipshop's advertisements have not been transmitted to the public. In other words: Vipshop's past advertising strategy has not achieved good user growth returns.</p><p>The product strategy is seriously insufficient to attract new users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb93475c24644f346f50ddd234e7ef33\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Vipshop's user repurchase rate: official website)</p><p>If we measure Vipshop by the standard of repurchase rate, it is undoubtedly a very successful retail company. Among the 45.8 million active users in the first quarter of 2021, 40.5 million were old users who made repeated purchases, accounting for 88.5%. Since 2015, this indicator has continued to show an upward trend. However, if you only rely on old users and repurchases, it is easy to face the bottleneck of growth. And the reason why new users retain banks, I think, has a lot to do with products:</p><p>Let me first quote a comment from a snowball friend: \"For buyers, clothing should choose from more, fashionable styles, fast new products, and durable shopping; for sellers, the platform should be able to ensure that it is sensitive to buyers' needs and design. Guidance, guidance on inventory management. However, Vipshop cannot meet the most mainstream needs of women's clothing users, and the seller can only meet inventory management. The result is that the user stickiness is high, but the volume is not large. \"</p><p>Corresponding to the product side of Vipshop, the supply side can only achieve limited styles, limited new products, and limited demand. If it corresponds to the demand side: users who have particularly high requirements for styles and trends may not be well satisfied. Corresponding to age, the younger the girl, the more she chases the trend. Therefore, corresponding to the customer base of Vipshop, new customers are mainly those born in the 90s and 95s. The reason why the retention rate of this part is less than 30% is, to a large extent, that styles cannot be presented to them in large quantities at Vipshop. So, in the end, after these people bought for the first time, they went to Taobao and Tmall.</p><p>The dilemma of attracting new retention of vertical e-commerce. Although Vipshop's revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan last year, in terms of positioning, the company cannot be called a platform-based e-commerce company. It is still a small and beautiful vertical e-commerce: Vipshop's clothing, shoes and hats account for about 45% of its total revenue. As a vertical e-commerce company, user needs must only be concentrated in a narrow range. For example, in terms of category mentality, when users come to Vipshop, the first thing they think of must be clothes and shoes, not electrical appliances, mobile phones, and food. This leads to one user, many other shopping needs, which can only be transferred to another e-commerce.</p><p>Bottom line: The mind is too vertical, which is both an advantage and a huge disadvantage. Users will only buy this kind of goods on this platform, while other long-tail goods are all eaten by Taobao and Pinduoduo.</p><p>The difficulties faced by unlisted vertical e-commerce companies are similar to those of Vipshop: a vertical e-commerce company for mothers and babies I know, at its peak in 2016, had a GMV of more than 10 billion yuan, and last year it was less than 4 billion yuan. It has shrunk by 60%. Corresponding to the company's valuation, it has shrunk by 50% compared to five years ago.</p><p>Maternal and infant e-commerce companies suffer even more on LTV. A mom, when the child grows up, never comes back. Compared with maternal and infant e-commerce, Vipshop's clothing, shoes and hats are the lifelong needs of users. Therefore, the stickiness of old users is particularly high.</p><p><b>Competition and Dilemma: Pipelinization of Special Sales</b></p><p>The opponent Vipshop faces is not another Vipshop, but other e-commerce companies. For example, Pinduoduo's broken code clearance channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2645bdfac50010ce610f48332896390c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1054\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When Pinduoduo's broken code channel first came out, I was very worried for a while, because Pinduoduo's positioning is naturally suitable for clearing inventory and tail goods. But at that time, I compared Vipshop's so-called \"buyer's advantage\" and found that Pinduoduo had little impact on Vipshop in the women's clothing category. Because the choice of women's clothing styles is extremely demanding. But these comparisons, today, need to be rethought. Why?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5962971ad162b4e3290fd2e6685c0887\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1161\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The scale of users is completely of the same order of magnitude. Pinduoduo has 800 million annual active users and 700 million monthly active users. Although we can't get the specific data of the broken code clearance channel, from the penetration rate, even if the number of users is 5%, the monthly purchase users of this channel are 35 million. The quarterly monthly active users of Vipshop are only 45 million. In the special field of tail goods, Pinduoduo's gross estimate is completely on the same order of magnitude as Vipshop's.</p><p>What is the difference between Pinduoduo's tail goods and Vipshop? What we talked about above is the number of users. In terms of commodity supply, we must first admit that Pinduoduo's supply side is not as good as Vipshop. But if we go back to the tail goods themselves, the requirements for buyers are far overestimated. Why?</p><p>Vipshop itself mainly sells on consignment. Different from the buyout system of TJX in the United States, most of Vipshop's special sales models are still mainly consignment models. What do you mean? It is what inventory the brand owner has and what goods Vipshop will sell. Vipshop itself does not eat the brand's inventory. The tail goods of the brand owner will first enter the warehouse of Vipshop, and then Vipshop will take photos, pack and deliver them uniformly. If they can't be sold out, Vipshop will return them to the brand.</p><p>For Vipshop, its more role is a \"sewer pipe\". The role of buyers in it will participate in judging some styles, but it does not dominate. The reason is also very simple: if buyers can judge which styles sell well, why doesn't Vipshop learn TJX's \"buyout system\"? After all, a buyout costs less.</p><p>Since there is no buyout, and the inventory is still cleared by volume sales, the core competition is who clears more and clears faster. It is more appropriate to compare Vipshop to a \"sewer pipe\". Before the birth of Pinduoduo and Doukuai e-commerce, the management in the country was the thickest and the water flow was the fastest. But today is different. Today, Pinduoduo's tail goods are on sale. Although the pipeline is not as thick as Vipshop, this pipeline is growing very fast. In addition, there are new channels such as live e-commerce.</p><p>These new pipelines do not necessarily subvert Vipshop, but they have greatly diverted the water in Vipshop pipelines. Therefore, let's look at Vipshop's operating income in the past three years, which is: 84.5 billion yuan, 92.9 billion yuan, and 101.8 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of only 10%. The growth rate of e-commerce market is around 20%.</p><p>Today, Vipshop, the tail cargo pipeline, encountered Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">Douyin</a>Kuaishou is a huge challenge, and the growth rate of the e-commerce market is also lower than three years ago. For Vipshop itself, at present, the biggest advantage is still the repurchase of old users, but this part cannot give it a future valuation. Vipshop's stock price fell from US $30 to US $20. In addition to the mediocre quarterly report, the market is more worried that its competitive advantage will be challenged.</p><p>The pipeline of tail goods is a true portrayal of what Vipshop is facing today. Whether this pipeline can be differentiated is currently a test of the ability of the management. For example, whether special and exclusive models can be customized for SVIP. Compared with other channels, Vipshop will exclusively buy out some goods on the commodity side in the future. These are the challenges of the moment.</p><p>The biggest challenge is that under homogeneous competition, Vipshop's new user growth and retention rate is far lower than that of general e-commerce. The current valuation, even based on an annual profit of US $1 billion, still has 15 times PE. And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">Momo</a>This kind of Internet company that does not grow has only 8-9 times PE. As a former shareholder of Vipshop, I hope Vipshop will not degenerate into a company with a PE below 10 times.</p><p>For some time to come, Vipshop will still be a profitable company, but in the secondary market, Vipshop may not be a valuable company. Because the growth is getting slower and slower, the challenges are getting bigger and bigger, and there is only that little profit left.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-06-09/doc-ikqciyzi8699752.shtml\">美港商业评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c4cd7712c75cd06d9344cb8d687270e","relate_stocks":{"VIPS":"唯品会"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-06-09/doc-ikqciyzi8699752.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142216539","content_text":"多年以后，当沈亚回忆往事的时候，犯下的最大错误，不是重金砸向了物流，而是没有在拼多多崛起之前，把唯品会打造成一个用户数过亿的电商。\n\n发布2021年一季报前，外界都觉得唯品会的业绩不会有问题。我认识一个持有唯品会的美元基金，财报前，甚至推测出单个SVIP的年度购买金额，和唯品会公布的16000元左右，误差不到500元。财报前，很多美元基金，基本都一致看好唯品会的Q1财报。\n但是财报发布后，大家才发现唯品会增长如此疲软。尤其公司给的二季度展望，比预期低3%。还有一个是新用户的留存问题，唯品会的季度新客留存尚不到30%。而美团、京东的数据，都在80%以上。如果深度复盘唯品会过去几年的路程，我们会发现今天的问题，暴露的完全合理和自然。\n低速增长的背后：唯品会面临的问题\n如果我们复盘唯品会过去三年的股价涨幅，算是电商行业表现非常耀眼的。2018年，唯品会一度只跌到30亿美金。今年春节时候唯品会一度涨到了260亿美元。三年涨幅接近十倍。\n但是我们看唯品会的股价涨幅，驱动因素主要来自于哪里？估值修复+利润增长。2018年初，彼时唯品会的自建快递品牌品骏，还没有卖给顺丰，导致整体履约费用特别高，2017年超过9%，最终体现到净利润率上，只有3%左右。所以，尽管唯品会的收入在涨，但是2018年之前，唯品会的利润并没有大幅度上涨，主要被自家的品骏所拖累。\n（唯品会的履约费用率，从最高9.5%下降到现在的6.2%）\n直到唯品会2019年把品骏快递打包卖给顺丰后，唯品会的商品，全部用顺丰发货，履约费用率，从9%下降到6%左右，这省下来的3个点，就成了提高的净利润率。所以，我们看唯品会的利润，从2018年的3亿美金增长到2020年的10亿美金。\n如果只看利润，唯品会是一家非常优秀的公司。放在A股，3000多家上市公司，年利润超过60亿人民币的，也非常稀少。但如果我们从互联网公司的视角，来审视唯品会，会发现其完全不合格：\n\n首先是用户增长的Bug。唯品会的季度活跃用户，从2015年的2000万，到最新一季度的4580万，只增长了一倍多点。如果对比拼多多的增长，有点偏颇。我们拿京东作为对比，唯品会的用户增长，会显得极其缓慢。而唯品会的新客增长问题，我认为主要有几方面的原因：\n（京东的活跃买家数量）\n定位较窄。唯品会从成立时，就清晰地定义自己是“一家做特卖的公司”。2012年上市后，唯品会也投放了许多品牌广告，都是围绕“特卖”来营销。但是这个定位，在广大的受众里，仍然比较“垂直”。打折是大众的“通用需求”，但是唯品会的广告，并没有传导到大众人群。或者说：唯品会过往的广告策略，并没有获到很好的用户增长回报。\n商品策略，对新用户吸引力严重不足。\n（唯品会的用户复购率：官网）\n如果我们以复购率这个标准，来衡量唯品会，无疑是一家非常成功的零售公司。2021年一季度的4580万活跃用户中，有4050万是重复购买的老用户，占比高达88.5%。从2015年至今，这一指标，持续呈现上涨趋势。但是，如果只靠老用户以及复购，很容易面临增长的瓶颈。而新用户留存行的原因，我觉得和商品也有很大关系：\n先引用一个雪球朋友的评论：“对买家而言，服饰要选择多，款式潮，上新快，耐逛；对卖家而言，平台要能保证其对买家需求敏感，对设计的指导，对库存管理的指导。而唯品会满足不了女装用户最主流的需求，卖家端也只能满足库存的管理。反映结果就是用户粘性高，但量不大。”\n对应到唯品会的商品端，供给端只能做到有限款式、有限上新、有限需求。如果对应到需求端：对款式、潮流要求特别高的用户，可能无法得到很好的满足。而对应到年龄上，越年轻的女孩子，越追逐潮流。所以，对应到唯品会的客群，新客主要是90、95后，这部分留存率不到30%的原因，很大程度，是在唯品会上，款式无法给她们海量的呈现。所以，最终这些人第一次买完后，又跑去了淘宝、天猫。\n垂直电商的拉新留存窘境。虽然唯品会去年的收入超过了1000亿元，但是从定位上，公司还不能称为一家平台型电商。仍然算一个小而美的垂直电商：唯品会的服装鞋帽占总收入为45%左右。作为垂直电商，用户需求，必然只集中在很窄的范围。比如品类心智上，用户来唯品会，首先想到的肯定是衣服、鞋子，而不是电器、手机、食品。这就导致了一个用户，很多其他的购物需求，只能转移到另一个电商上。\n一句话：心智过于垂直，是优势，也是巨大的劣势。用户只会在这个平台上买这一类商品，其他长尾的商品，则全部被淘宝和拼多多吃掉了。\n没上市的垂直电商，所面临的困境，和唯品会是相似的：我知道的一家母婴垂直电商，2016年顶峰时期，GMV就超过了100亿元，去年还不到40亿。萎缩了60%。对应到公司估值上，对比五年前，缩水了50%。\n母婴类的电商，在LTV上，更加吃亏。一个妈妈，孩子长大后，就永远不会再回来了。唯品会和母婴类电商比，服装鞋帽是用户的终身需求。所以老用户的粘性特别高。\n面临的竞争和困境：特卖的管道化\n唯品会面临的对手，并不是另一个唯品会，而是其他的电商。比如拼多多的断码清仓频道。\n\n拼多多的断码频道刚出来时，我有一阵非常担心，因为拼多多的定位，天然适合清库存和尾货。但是当时又对比了唯品会所谓的“买手优势”，发现拼多多在女装类目，对唯品会冲击不大。因为女装对款式的挑选，极为苛刻。但是这些对比，到今天，需要重新思考了，为什么？\n\n用户规模已经完全一个量级。拼多多的年度活跃用户8亿，月活7亿，虽然我们无法得出断码清仓频道的具体数据，但是从渗透率算，即使5%的用户量，这个频道的月购买用户也有3500万。而唯品会季度的月活用户也就4500万。拼多多在尾货特别领域，毛估估算，已经完全和唯品会一个量级了。\n拼多多的尾货，和唯品会有什么区别？上面我们谈到的是用户量，在商品供给上，首先得承认拼多多的供给端，不如唯品会。但是如果回到尾货本身，对买手的要求远远被高估了。为什么？\n唯品会本身以寄卖为主。和美国TJX的买断制不同，唯品会的特卖模式，绝大部分仍然是寄卖模式为主。什么意思呢？就是品牌商有什么库存，唯品会卖什么货。唯品会自己并不吃品牌方的库存。品牌商的尾货先入到唯品会的仓，然后由唯品会来统一拍照、打包、发货，卖不完的，唯品会再退回给品牌方。\n对于唯品会来说，自己更多的角色是一个“下水管道”。买手在其中的作用，会参与判断一些款式，但并不占主导位置。理由也很简单：如果买手能判断出哪些款式畅销，唯品会为什么不学TJX“买断制”呢？毕竟，买断的成本更低。\n既然不买断，仍然以走量销售的清库存，那核心比拼的，还是谁清的多、清的快。把唯品会比喻为一个“下水管道”更合适。在拼多多、抖快电商没诞生之前，全国这个管理是最粗的、水流也是最快的。但是今天不一样了。今天拼多多的尾货特卖，虽然管道没有唯品会粗，但是这个管道增长特别快。另外，还有直播电商这样的新管道。\n这些新的管道，不一定颠覆唯品会，但是很大程度分流了唯品会管道里的水。所以，我们看唯品会过去三年的营业收入，分别为：845亿元、929亿元、1018亿元，年复合增长率仅为10%。而电商的大盘增速在20%左右。\n今天，唯品会这个尾货管道，遭遇了拼多多、抖音快手的巨大挑战，而电商大盘的增速，也要低于三年前。对于唯品会自己，目前看，最大的优势仍是老用户复购，但是这部分并不能给其未来的估值。唯品会的股价，从30美元跌到20美元，除了一季报的平庸，市场更多担心是竞争优势遭受到挑战。\n尾货管道化，是今天唯品会面临的真实写照。这个管道能否做出差异化，目前极为考验管理层的能力。比如能否为SVIP定制特别款、独家款。和其他渠道比，唯品会未来在商品端，能否独家买断一些货品。这些都是当前的挑战。\n而最大的挑战，就是在同质化的竞争下，唯品会的新用户增长和留存率，远低于通用电商。而当前的估值，即使按照年利润10亿美金算，仍然还有15倍PE。而陌陌这种不增长的互联网公司，只有8-9倍PE。作为曾经唯品会的股东，希望唯品会不要堕落成10倍PE以下的公司。\n未来的一段时间，唯品会还是一家赚钱的公司，但是在二级市场上，唯品会可能不是一家值钱的公司。因为增长越来越慢、挑战越来越大、只剩那点利润。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VIPS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117182720,"gmtCreate":1623122862260,"gmtModify":1704196552507,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Vs 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up up&nbsp;","listText":"up up up&nbsp;","text":"up up up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f05a593773a93094fe0d67e3fbfb0c","width":"1125","height":"3567"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112803546","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113673553,"gmtCreate":1622614837672,"gmtModify":1704187370205,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"up up up","listText":"up up up","text":"up up up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5232e1c84dc2e85ad6f30e3cd760bd3a","width":"1125","height":"3567"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/113673553","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135633756,"gmtCreate":1622160478775,"gmtModify":1704180495597,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oh yeah&nbsp;","listText":"oh yeah&nbsp;","text":"oh yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135633756","repostId":"1100969776","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100969776","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622128550,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100969776?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-27 23:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] AMC cinemas have risen by more than 18%, and have risen by about 980% year-to-date","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100969776","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月27日，AMC院线盘中涨幅扩大至18%，年初至今累涨约980%。分析师对此表示，这一轮上涨可能是由促使散户大量涌入的各种因素共同推动的。","content":"<p>On May 27, the intraday increase of AMC cinemas expanded to 18%, and it has risen by about 980% year-to-date. Analysts said that this round of gains may be driven by a combination of factors that prompted the influx of retail investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21e96b43393c006e9bc19fd5812384f5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb490a9e8a1d91368ad0c74229f78a9\" tg-width=\"763\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] AMC cinemas have risen by more than 18%, and have risen by about 980% year-to-date</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] AMC cinemas have risen by more than 18%, and have risen by about 980% year-to-date\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-27 23:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On May 27, the intraday increase of AMC cinemas expanded to 18%, and it has risen by about 980% year-to-date. Analysts said that this round of gains may be driven by a combination of factors that prompted the influx of retail investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21e96b43393c006e9bc19fd5812384f5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb490a9e8a1d91368ad0c74229f78a9\" tg-width=\"763\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9799452c6e883af5f4b9930336873099","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100969776","content_text":"5月27日，AMC院线盘中涨幅扩大至18%，年初至今累涨约980%。分析师对此表示，这一轮上涨可能是由促使散户大量涌入的各种因素共同推动的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135694434,"gmtCreate":1622160333628,"gmtModify":1704180490003,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Niu&nbsp;","listText":"Niu&nbsp;","text":"Niu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135694434","repostId":"1139893263","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139893263","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621926753,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139893263?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 15:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Due to Memorial Day, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on May 31","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139893263","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。背景","content":"<p>It is reported that on May 31 (Monday) due to Memorial Day in the United States, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day, and trading will continue as usual from Tuesday.</p><p>On May 31 (Monday), the British stock market will be closed for one day due to Bank Holiday, and trading will continue as usual from Tuesday.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p>Memorial Day: It is a holiday commemorated by most states in the United States. It was originally May 30th. After 1971, in order to ensure that federal employees can enjoy this rest day, many states changed it to the last Monday in May.</p><p>In the American Civil War, countless soldiers were killed in the war. At the end of the war, many families in the south began to pay homage to the soldiers killed in the war. Regardless of the north and the south, they offered flowers to the cemeteries of the dead on both sides in spring. Northerners were deeply moved by this and regarded this act as a symbol of national unity. In 1868, May 30 was officially approved as a day to lay flowers to the soldiers who died heroically defending the motherland.</p><p>On Memorial Day, American active-duty soldiers and veterans line up in a long queue to go to the cemetery, fire guns to greet the fallen soldiers, and blow the lights out signal in the army to let the dead soldiers rest in peace.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Due to Memorial Day, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on May 31</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Due to Memorial Day, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on May 31\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 15:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is reported that on May 31 (Monday) due to Memorial Day in the United States, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day, and trading will continue as usual from Tuesday.</p><p>On May 31 (Monday), the British stock market will be closed for one day due to Bank Holiday, and trading will continue as usual from Tuesday.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p>Memorial Day: It is a holiday commemorated by most states in the United States. It was originally May 30th. After 1971, in order to ensure that federal employees can enjoy this rest day, many states changed it to the last Monday in May.</p><p>In the American Civil War, countless soldiers were killed in the war. At the end of the war, many families in the south began to pay homage to the soldiers killed in the war. Regardless of the north and the south, they offered flowers to the cemeteries of the dead on both sides in spring. Northerners were deeply moved by this and regarded this act as a symbol of national unity. In 1868, May 30 was officially approved as a day to lay flowers to the soldiers who died heroically defending the motherland.</p><p>On Memorial Day, American active-duty soldiers and veterans line up in a long queue to go to the cemetery, fire guns to greet the fallen soldiers, and blow the lights out signal in the army to let the dead soldiers rest in peace.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139893263","content_text":"据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。背景简介：阵亡将士纪念日（Memorial Day）：是美国大多数州都要纪念的节日，时间原为5月30日，1971年以后，为保证联邦雇员都能享有这一休息日，许多州将它改在5月的最后一个星期一。美国南北战争中，无数将士在战火中阵亡。战争结束，南部许多家庭开始祭奠战争中阵亡的将士。他们不分南北双方，在春天向双方死者的墓地都奉献鲜花，北方人为此深受感动，将这一举动视为民族团结的象征。1868年，5月30日这一天被正式批准为向为保卫祖国而英勇牺牲的士兵们敬献鲜花的日子。每逢阵亡将士纪念日，美国现役军人和老战士便排成长长的队伍前往墓地，鸣枪向阵亡将士致意，吹响军中熄灯号让死难将士安息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139577940,"gmtCreate":1621647822280,"gmtModify":1704360966694,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I believe I can fly&nbsp;","listText":"I believe I can fly&nbsp;","text":"I believe I can fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139577940","repostId":"1146484174","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146484174","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621610345,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146484174?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 23:19","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"The commodity rally has pressed the pause button, but the benefits behind it are still there?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146484174","media":"金十数据","summary":"分析指出，大宗商品的牛市肯定还没有结束。在此前大涨后，本周农作物、石油和金属等大宗商品都出现下跌。通胀担忧、美联储可能收紧宽松政策的预期以及国内监管层的警告，都让投资者深深捏了把汗。不过分析指出，今年大宗商品价格飙升背后的许多原因，以及有关新超级周期的争论，仍然没有改变。“我坚定地认为，目前只是大宗商品的暂歇期。任何令人失望的数据或不利因素总会引起获利了结的抛售，我认为整个行业仍有上行空间。”","content":"<p>The analysis pointed out that the bull market for commodities is definitely not over yet. Commodities such as crops, oil and metals all fell this week after previous surges. Inflation concerns, expectations that the Federal Reserve may tighten easing policy, and warnings from domestic regulators have all made investors sweat deeply.</p><p>However, the analysis pointed out that many of the reasons behind the surge in commodity prices this year, as well as the debate about the new super cycle, remain unchanged.</p><p>Eric Liu, head of trading at Chinese copper trader ASK Resources Ltd., said:</p><p>\"The bull market for commodities is definitely not over. Every country is struggling with rising inflation, but as long as they don't tighten monetary and fiscal policy, it will be difficult for commodity price gains to cool down.\" With the launch of COVID-19 vaccine, important economies around the world have rebounded. While supplies remain tight, demand for metals, food and energy is increasing, and a range of commodity markets, including petroleum timber, are tightening.</p><p>The supply crunch trend is likely to intensify in the U.S. and Europe in the coming months as more people go out, travel by road, fly, attend summer barbecue parties, and more. In addition, China is also increasing imports of soybeans and corn, indicating that its demand is increasing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/018880b9d089ce4fbfbd13aac3210bb8\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A tough long-term outlook for infrastructure spending and a faster transition to electric vehicles, batteries have also pushed up commodity prices.</p><p>On Thursday, the market was more stable than before. Copper futures rebounded from the previous day's plunge on market forecasts that copper demand will remain resilient even if the Federal Reserve tapers asset purchases or China steps up efforts to drive down prices. Corn futures in Chicago also rose, driven by an ongoing buying rush.</p><p>In contrast,<b>Crude oil futures fell widened due to expectations of the end of export sanctions against Iran and an increase in Iranian crude oil supply. COVID-19 pandemic continues to curb Indian demand.</b></p><p>Bob Yawger, head of futures at Mizuho Securities, said the Bloomberg Commodity Index could still exceed its 2011 record high in the coming months as the U.S. economy opens up further, although inflationary pressures could limit its upside.</p><p>The supervisor said in an interview:</p><p>\"People want to go out, which will bring huge buying opportunities to the market. In addition, the weaker US dollar may also be a catalyst for rising commodity prices, because most raw materials are denominated in US dollars. Due to the upcoming driving and aviation season, WTI crude oil may climb to $70 a barrel in the coming months.\" Separately, crops in the U.S., as well as Brazil and Argentina, need almost perfect weather to meet global demand this summer, so any inclement weather could send prices to spike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cee9704758312cba55b03c02098909e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Metals benefited from rapid replenishment in manufacturing supply chains and the prospect of green consumption in the next few years, driving the economic bellwether-copper exceeded $10,700 a ton earlier this month. Whether its price will continue to move higher depends in part on how aware the market is of infrastructure spending and how long loose monetary policy will last.</p><p>Wall Street has already shown optimism about the outlook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Copper prices are expected to exceed $12,000 in the coming months. In addition, major copper traders<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLEN.UK\">Glencore</a>(Glencore Plc) and Trafigura said copper prices could rise sharply to stimulate enough supply to meet future demand for renewable energy and electric vehicles.</p><p>ANZ strategist Daniel Hines said:</p><p>\"I firmly believe that this is just a break for commodities. Any disappointing data or headwinds will always lead to a profit-taking sell-off, and I think there is still room for upside in the whole industry.\"</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The commodity rally has pressed the pause button, but the benefits behind it are still there?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe commodity rally has pressed the pause button, but the benefits behind it are still there?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 23:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The analysis pointed out that the bull market for commodities is definitely not over yet. Commodities such as crops, oil and metals all fell this week after previous surges. Inflation concerns, expectations that the Federal Reserve may tighten easing policy, and warnings from domestic regulators have all made investors sweat deeply.</p><p>However, the analysis pointed out that many of the reasons behind the surge in commodity prices this year, as well as the debate about the new super cycle, remain unchanged.</p><p>Eric Liu, head of trading at Chinese copper trader ASK Resources Ltd., said:</p><p>\"The bull market for commodities is definitely not over. Every country is struggling with rising inflation, but as long as they don't tighten monetary and fiscal policy, it will be difficult for commodity price gains to cool down.\" With the launch of COVID-19 vaccine, important economies around the world have rebounded. While supplies remain tight, demand for metals, food and energy is increasing, and a range of commodity markets, including petroleum timber, are tightening.</p><p>The supply crunch trend is likely to intensify in the U.S. and Europe in the coming months as more people go out, travel by road, fly, attend summer barbecue parties, and more. In addition, China is also increasing imports of soybeans and corn, indicating that its demand is increasing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/018880b9d089ce4fbfbd13aac3210bb8\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A tough long-term outlook for infrastructure spending and a faster transition to electric vehicles, batteries have also pushed up commodity prices.</p><p>On Thursday, the market was more stable than before. Copper futures rebounded from the previous day's plunge on market forecasts that copper demand will remain resilient even if the Federal Reserve tapers asset purchases or China steps up efforts to drive down prices. Corn futures in Chicago also rose, driven by an ongoing buying rush.</p><p>In contrast,<b>Crude oil futures fell widened due to expectations of the end of export sanctions against Iran and an increase in Iranian crude oil supply. COVID-19 pandemic continues to curb Indian demand.</b></p><p>Bob Yawger, head of futures at Mizuho Securities, said the Bloomberg Commodity Index could still exceed its 2011 record high in the coming months as the U.S. economy opens up further, although inflationary pressures could limit its upside.</p><p>The supervisor said in an interview:</p><p>\"People want to go out, which will bring huge buying opportunities to the market. In addition, the weaker US dollar may also be a catalyst for rising commodity prices, because most raw materials are denominated in US dollars. Due to the upcoming driving and aviation season, WTI crude oil may climb to $70 a barrel in the coming months.\" Separately, crops in the U.S., as well as Brazil and Argentina, need almost perfect weather to meet global demand this summer, so any inclement weather could send prices to spike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cee9704758312cba55b03c02098909e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Metals benefited from rapid replenishment in manufacturing supply chains and the prospect of green consumption in the next few years, driving the economic bellwether-copper exceeded $10,700 a ton earlier this month. Whether its price will continue to move higher depends in part on how aware the market is of infrastructure spending and how long loose monetary policy will last.</p><p>Wall Street has already shown optimism about the outlook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Copper prices are expected to exceed $12,000 in the coming months. In addition, major copper traders<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLEN.UK\">Glencore</a>(Glencore Plc) and Trafigura said copper prices could rise sharply to stimulate enough supply to meet future demand for renewable energy and electric vehicles.</p><p>ANZ strategist Daniel Hines said:</p><p>\"I firmly believe that this is just a break for commodities. Any disappointing data or headwinds will always lead to a profit-taking sell-off, and I think there is still room for upside in the whole industry.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74903\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"161715":"大宗商品","000979.SH":"大宗商品"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74903","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146484174","content_text":"分析指出，大宗商品的牛市肯定还没有结束。\n\n在此前大涨后，本周农作物、石油和金属等大宗商品都出现下跌。通胀担忧、美联储可能收紧宽松政策的预期以及国内监管层的警告，都让投资者深深捏了把汗。\n不过分析指出，今年大宗商品价格飙升背后的许多原因，以及有关新超级周期的争论，仍然没有改变。\n中国铜交易商ASK Resources Ltd.交易主管Eric Liu说：\n\n “大宗商品的牛市肯定还没有结束。每个国家都在与通胀上升作斗争，但只要他们不收紧货币和财政政策，大宗商品价格涨势很难降温。”\n\n随着新冠疫苗推出，全球重要经济体出现反弹。在供应仍然紧张的情况下，金属、食品和能源的需求不断增加，包括石油木材在内的一系列商品市场出现紧缩。\n未来几个月，随着更多人外出、自驾游、坐飞机、参加夏季烧烤聚会等等，供应紧缩的趋势在美国和欧洲可能会加剧。另外中国也在增加大豆和玉米的进口，说明其需求在增加。\n基础设施支出严峻的长期前景以及向电动汽车、电池的更快过渡同样推高了大宗商品价格。\n周四，市场行情较之前更加稳定。铜期货从前一天的暴跌中反弹，因为市场预测，即使美联储缩减购买资产规模，亦或是中国加大力度压低价格，铜需求仍将保持弹性。在持续不断的购买热潮推动下，芝加哥的玉米期货也上涨。\n相比之下，出于对伊朗出口制裁结束、伊朗原油供应增加的预期，原油期货跌幅扩大。新冠疫情继续抑制印度的需求。\n瑞穗证券期货部门主管Bob Yawger表示，随着美国经济进一步开放，彭博大宗商品指数在未来几个月仍可能超过2011年的纪录高位，尽管通胀压力可能会限制其上行幅度。\n这位主管在接受采访时称：\n\n “人们都想外出，这将给市场带来巨大的买机。此外，美元走软可能也是大宗商品价格上涨的催化剂，因为多数原材料都是以美元计价的。由于驾车出行和航空旺季即将到来，WTI原油可能在未来几个月攀升至每桶70美元。”\n\n另外，今年夏天，美国以及巴西和阿根廷的农作物需要几乎完美的天气才能满足全球需求，因此任何恶劣天气都可能导致价格飙升。\n金属受益于制造业供应链的快速补给以及未来几年的绿色消费前景，推动了经济风向标——铜本月稍早突破每吨1.07万美元。其价格是否会继续走高，在一定程度上取决于市场对基础设施支出的认识程度，以及宽松的货币政策将持续多久。\n华尔街已经对该前景表现出乐观情绪，花旗预计铜价将在未来几个月突破1.2万美元。此外，铜主要交易商嘉能可（Glencore Plc）和托克（Trafigura）表示，铜价可能大幅上涨，以刺激足够的供应，从而满足未来可再生能源和电动汽车的需求。\n澳新银行策略师丹尼尔·海因斯表示：\n\n “我坚定地认为，目前只是大宗商品的暂歇期。任何令人失望的数据或不利因素总会引起获利了结的抛售，我认为整个行业仍有上行空间。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161715":0.9,"000979.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":189180327,"gmtCreate":1623247881169,"gmtModify":1704199311125,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189180327","repostId":"2142216539","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142216539","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623247578,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142216539?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 22:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Competition and Dilemma Faced by Vipshop: Pipelinization of Special Sales","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142216539","media":"美港商业评论","summary":"多年以后，当沈亚回忆往事的时候，犯下的最大错误，不是重金砸向了物流，而是没有在拼多多崛起之前，把唯品会打造成一个用户数过亿的电商。\n\n发布2021年一季报前，外界都觉得唯品会的业绩不会有问题。我认识一","content":"<p>Many years later, when Shen Ya recalled the past, the biggest mistake she made was not that she spent a lot of money on logistics, but that she did not<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Before its rise, Vipshop will be built into an e-commerce company with hundreds of millions of users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40487789de570b4fa66d6b9c878da7ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the release of the first quarter report for 2021, the outside world felt that there would be no problem with Vipshop's performance. I know a US dollar fund that holds Vipshop. Before the financial report, I even speculated that the annual purchase amount of a single SVIP was less than 500 yuan from the 16,000 yuan announced by Vipshop. Before the financial report, many US dollar funds were basically optimistic about Vipshop's Q1 financial report.</p><p>But after the financial report was released, everyone discovered that Vipshop's growth was so weak. In particular, the company's outlook for the second quarter is 3% lower than expected. Another problem is the retention of new users. Vipshop's quarterly new customer retention is less than 30%. And Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The data are all above 80%. If we go deep into review Vipshop's journey in the past few years, we will find that today's problems are completely reasonable and natural.</p><p><b>Behind the low-speed growth: the problems faced by Vipshop</b></p><p>If the stock price of review Vipshop has increased in the past three years, it can be regarded as a very dazzling performance of the e-commerce industry. In 2018, Vipshop once fell to only US $3 billion. During the Spring Festival this year, Vipshop once rose to $26 billion. The three-year increase is nearly tenfold.</p><p>But when we look at Vipshop's stock price increase, where are the main driving factors? Valuation repair + profit growth. At the beginning of 2018, Pinjun, Vipshop's self-built express delivery brand, had not yet been sold to SF Express, resulting in a particularly high overall performance cost, which exceeded 9% in 2017, and was ultimately reflected in the net profit margin, which was only about 3%. Therefore, although Vipshop's revenue is rising, before 2018, Vipshop's profits did not rise significantly, mainly dragged down by its own Pinjun.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f198fda8406ff0423662a2bb409ce4e6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Vipshop's fulfillment expense ratio has dropped from a maximum of 9.5% to 6.2% now)</p><p>Until Vipshop packaged and sold Pinjun Express to SF Express in 2019, all Vipshop's products were shipped by SF Express, and the performance expense ratio dropped from 9% to about 6%. This saved 3 points, It has become an improved net profit margin. Therefore, let's look at Vipshop's profit, which has increased from US $300 million in 2018 to US $1 billion in 2020.</p><p>If you only look at profits, Vipshop will be a very good company. In the A-share market, there are more than 3,000 listed companies with annual profits exceeding 6 billion yuan, which is also very rare. But if we look at Vipshop from the perspective of Internet companies, we will find that it is completely unqualified:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3981cbbe2fa18f97229938936ea9187f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The first is the Bug of user growth. Vipshop's quarterly active users have only more than doubled from 20 million in 2015 to 45.8 million in the latest quarter. If you compare Pinduoduo's growth, it is a bit biased. Let's take JD.COM as a comparison. Vipshop's user growth will be extremely slow. As for the growth of new customers in Vipshop, I think there are several main reasons:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cb51ab6cc2b0230b57433002ee8c16\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Number of active buyers in JD.com)</p><p>The positioning is narrow. Since its establishment, Vipshop has clearly defined itself as \"a company that does special sales.\" After its listing in 2012, Vipshop also launched many brand advertisements, all of which were marketed around \"special sales\". But this positioning, among the vast audience, is still relatively \"vertical\". Discount is the \"general demand\" of the public, but Vipshop's advertisements have not been transmitted to the public. In other words: Vipshop's past advertising strategy has not achieved good user growth returns.</p><p>The product strategy is seriously insufficient to attract new users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb93475c24644f346f50ddd234e7ef33\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Vipshop's user repurchase rate: official website)</p><p>If we measure Vipshop by the standard of repurchase rate, it is undoubtedly a very successful retail company. Among the 45.8 million active users in the first quarter of 2021, 40.5 million were old users who made repeated purchases, accounting for 88.5%. Since 2015, this indicator has continued to show an upward trend. However, if you only rely on old users and repurchases, it is easy to face the bottleneck of growth. And the reason why new users retain banks, I think, has a lot to do with products:</p><p>Let me first quote a comment from a snowball friend: \"For buyers, clothing should choose from more, fashionable styles, fast new products, and durable shopping; for sellers, the platform should be able to ensure that it is sensitive to buyers' needs and design. Guidance, guidance on inventory management. However, Vipshop cannot meet the most mainstream needs of women's clothing users, and the seller can only meet inventory management. The result is that the user stickiness is high, but the volume is not large. \"</p><p>Corresponding to the product side of Vipshop, the supply side can only achieve limited styles, limited new products, and limited demand. If it corresponds to the demand side: users who have particularly high requirements for styles and trends may not be well satisfied. Corresponding to age, the younger the girl, the more she chases the trend. Therefore, corresponding to the customer base of Vipshop, new customers are mainly those born in the 90s and 95s. The reason why the retention rate of this part is less than 30% is, to a large extent, that styles cannot be presented to them in large quantities at Vipshop. So, in the end, after these people bought for the first time, they went to Taobao and Tmall.</p><p>The dilemma of attracting new retention of vertical e-commerce. Although Vipshop's revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan last year, in terms of positioning, the company cannot be called a platform-based e-commerce company. It is still a small and beautiful vertical e-commerce: Vipshop's clothing, shoes and hats account for about 45% of its total revenue. As a vertical e-commerce company, user needs must only be concentrated in a narrow range. For example, in terms of category mentality, when users come to Vipshop, the first thing they think of must be clothes and shoes, not electrical appliances, mobile phones, and food. This leads to one user, many other shopping needs, which can only be transferred to another e-commerce.</p><p>Bottom line: The mind is too vertical, which is both an advantage and a huge disadvantage. Users will only buy this kind of goods on this platform, while other long-tail goods are all eaten by Taobao and Pinduoduo.</p><p>The difficulties faced by unlisted vertical e-commerce companies are similar to those of Vipshop: a vertical e-commerce company for mothers and babies I know, at its peak in 2016, had a GMV of more than 10 billion yuan, and last year it was less than 4 billion yuan. It has shrunk by 60%. Corresponding to the company's valuation, it has shrunk by 50% compared to five years ago.</p><p>Maternal and infant e-commerce companies suffer even more on LTV. A mom, when the child grows up, never comes back. Compared with maternal and infant e-commerce, Vipshop's clothing, shoes and hats are the lifelong needs of users. Therefore, the stickiness of old users is particularly high.</p><p><b>Competition and Dilemma: Pipelinization of Special Sales</b></p><p>The opponent Vipshop faces is not another Vipshop, but other e-commerce companies. For example, Pinduoduo's broken code clearance channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2645bdfac50010ce610f48332896390c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1054\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When Pinduoduo's broken code channel first came out, I was very worried for a while, because Pinduoduo's positioning is naturally suitable for clearing inventory and tail goods. But at that time, I compared Vipshop's so-called \"buyer's advantage\" and found that Pinduoduo had little impact on Vipshop in the women's clothing category. Because the choice of women's clothing styles is extremely demanding. But these comparisons, today, need to be rethought. Why?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5962971ad162b4e3290fd2e6685c0887\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1161\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The scale of users is completely of the same order of magnitude. Pinduoduo has 800 million annual active users and 700 million monthly active users. Although we can't get the specific data of the broken code clearance channel, from the penetration rate, even if the number of users is 5%, the monthly purchase users of this channel are 35 million. The quarterly monthly active users of Vipshop are only 45 million. In the special field of tail goods, Pinduoduo's gross estimate is completely on the same order of magnitude as Vipshop's.</p><p>What is the difference between Pinduoduo's tail goods and Vipshop? What we talked about above is the number of users. In terms of commodity supply, we must first admit that Pinduoduo's supply side is not as good as Vipshop. But if we go back to the tail goods themselves, the requirements for buyers are far overestimated. Why?</p><p>Vipshop itself mainly sells on consignment. Different from the buyout system of TJX in the United States, most of Vipshop's special sales models are still mainly consignment models. What do you mean? It is what inventory the brand owner has and what goods Vipshop will sell. Vipshop itself does not eat the brand's inventory. The tail goods of the brand owner will first enter the warehouse of Vipshop, and then Vipshop will take photos, pack and deliver them uniformly. If they can't be sold out, Vipshop will return them to the brand.</p><p>For Vipshop, its more role is a \"sewer pipe\". The role of buyers in it will participate in judging some styles, but it does not dominate. The reason is also very simple: if buyers can judge which styles sell well, why doesn't Vipshop learn TJX's \"buyout system\"? After all, a buyout costs less.</p><p>Since there is no buyout, and the inventory is still cleared by volume sales, the core competition is who clears more and clears faster. It is more appropriate to compare Vipshop to a \"sewer pipe\". Before the birth of Pinduoduo and Doukuai e-commerce, the management in the country was the thickest and the water flow was the fastest. But today is different. Today, Pinduoduo's tail goods are on sale. Although the pipeline is not as thick as Vipshop, this pipeline is growing very fast. In addition, there are new channels such as live e-commerce.</p><p>These new pipelines do not necessarily subvert Vipshop, but they have greatly diverted the water in Vipshop pipelines. Therefore, let's look at Vipshop's operating income in the past three years, which is: 84.5 billion yuan, 92.9 billion yuan, and 101.8 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of only 10%. The growth rate of e-commerce market is around 20%.</p><p>Today, Vipshop, the tail cargo pipeline, encountered Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">Douyin</a>Kuaishou is a huge challenge, and the growth rate of the e-commerce market is also lower than three years ago. For Vipshop itself, at present, the biggest advantage is still the repurchase of old users, but this part cannot give it a future valuation. Vipshop's stock price fell from US $30 to US $20. In addition to the mediocre quarterly report, the market is more worried that its competitive advantage will be challenged.</p><p>The pipeline of tail goods is a true portrayal of what Vipshop is facing today. Whether this pipeline can be differentiated is currently a test of the ability of the management. For example, whether special and exclusive models can be customized for SVIP. Compared with other channels, Vipshop will exclusively buy out some goods on the commodity side in the future. These are the challenges of the moment.</p><p>The biggest challenge is that under homogeneous competition, Vipshop's new user growth and retention rate is far lower than that of general e-commerce. The current valuation, even based on an annual profit of US $1 billion, still has 15 times PE. And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">Momo</a>This kind of Internet company that does not grow has only 8-9 times PE. As a former shareholder of Vipshop, I hope Vipshop will not degenerate into a company with a PE below 10 times.</p><p>For some time to come, Vipshop will still be a profitable company, but in the secondary market, Vipshop may not be a valuable company. Because the growth is getting slower and slower, the challenges are getting bigger and bigger, and there is only that little profit left.</p>","source":"lsy1622099900134","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Competition and Dilemma Faced by Vipshop: Pipelinization of Special Sales</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCompetition and Dilemma Faced by Vipshop: Pipelinization of Special Sales\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美港商业评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-09 22:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Many years later, when Shen Ya recalled the past, the biggest mistake she made was not that she spent a lot of money on logistics, but that she did not<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Before its rise, Vipshop will be built into an e-commerce company with hundreds of millions of users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40487789de570b4fa66d6b9c878da7ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the release of the first quarter report for 2021, the outside world felt that there would be no problem with Vipshop's performance. I know a US dollar fund that holds Vipshop. Before the financial report, I even speculated that the annual purchase amount of a single SVIP was less than 500 yuan from the 16,000 yuan announced by Vipshop. Before the financial report, many US dollar funds were basically optimistic about Vipshop's Q1 financial report.</p><p>But after the financial report was released, everyone discovered that Vipshop's growth was so weak. In particular, the company's outlook for the second quarter is 3% lower than expected. Another problem is the retention of new users. Vipshop's quarterly new customer retention is less than 30%. And Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The data are all above 80%. If we go deep into review Vipshop's journey in the past few years, we will find that today's problems are completely reasonable and natural.</p><p><b>Behind the low-speed growth: the problems faced by Vipshop</b></p><p>If the stock price of review Vipshop has increased in the past three years, it can be regarded as a very dazzling performance of the e-commerce industry. In 2018, Vipshop once fell to only US $3 billion. During the Spring Festival this year, Vipshop once rose to $26 billion. The three-year increase is nearly tenfold.</p><p>But when we look at Vipshop's stock price increase, where are the main driving factors? Valuation repair + profit growth. At the beginning of 2018, Pinjun, Vipshop's self-built express delivery brand, had not yet been sold to SF Express, resulting in a particularly high overall performance cost, which exceeded 9% in 2017, and was ultimately reflected in the net profit margin, which was only about 3%. Therefore, although Vipshop's revenue is rising, before 2018, Vipshop's profits did not rise significantly, mainly dragged down by its own Pinjun.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f198fda8406ff0423662a2bb409ce4e6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Vipshop's fulfillment expense ratio has dropped from a maximum of 9.5% to 6.2% now)</p><p>Until Vipshop packaged and sold Pinjun Express to SF Express in 2019, all Vipshop's products were shipped by SF Express, and the performance expense ratio dropped from 9% to about 6%. This saved 3 points, It has become an improved net profit margin. Therefore, let's look at Vipshop's profit, which has increased from US $300 million in 2018 to US $1 billion in 2020.</p><p>If you only look at profits, Vipshop will be a very good company. In the A-share market, there are more than 3,000 listed companies with annual profits exceeding 6 billion yuan, which is also very rare. But if we look at Vipshop from the perspective of Internet companies, we will find that it is completely unqualified:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3981cbbe2fa18f97229938936ea9187f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The first is the Bug of user growth. Vipshop's quarterly active users have only more than doubled from 20 million in 2015 to 45.8 million in the latest quarter. If you compare Pinduoduo's growth, it is a bit biased. Let's take JD.COM as a comparison. Vipshop's user growth will be extremely slow. As for the growth of new customers in Vipshop, I think there are several main reasons:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cb51ab6cc2b0230b57433002ee8c16\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Number of active buyers in JD.com)</p><p>The positioning is narrow. Since its establishment, Vipshop has clearly defined itself as \"a company that does special sales.\" After its listing in 2012, Vipshop also launched many brand advertisements, all of which were marketed around \"special sales\". But this positioning, among the vast audience, is still relatively \"vertical\". Discount is the \"general demand\" of the public, but Vipshop's advertisements have not been transmitted to the public. In other words: Vipshop's past advertising strategy has not achieved good user growth returns.</p><p>The product strategy is seriously insufficient to attract new users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb93475c24644f346f50ddd234e7ef33\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Vipshop's user repurchase rate: official website)</p><p>If we measure Vipshop by the standard of repurchase rate, it is undoubtedly a very successful retail company. Among the 45.8 million active users in the first quarter of 2021, 40.5 million were old users who made repeated purchases, accounting for 88.5%. Since 2015, this indicator has continued to show an upward trend. However, if you only rely on old users and repurchases, it is easy to face the bottleneck of growth. And the reason why new users retain banks, I think, has a lot to do with products:</p><p>Let me first quote a comment from a snowball friend: \"For buyers, clothing should choose from more, fashionable styles, fast new products, and durable shopping; for sellers, the platform should be able to ensure that it is sensitive to buyers' needs and design. Guidance, guidance on inventory management. However, Vipshop cannot meet the most mainstream needs of women's clothing users, and the seller can only meet inventory management. The result is that the user stickiness is high, but the volume is not large. \"</p><p>Corresponding to the product side of Vipshop, the supply side can only achieve limited styles, limited new products, and limited demand. If it corresponds to the demand side: users who have particularly high requirements for styles and trends may not be well satisfied. Corresponding to age, the younger the girl, the more she chases the trend. Therefore, corresponding to the customer base of Vipshop, new customers are mainly those born in the 90s and 95s. The reason why the retention rate of this part is less than 30% is, to a large extent, that styles cannot be presented to them in large quantities at Vipshop. So, in the end, after these people bought for the first time, they went to Taobao and Tmall.</p><p>The dilemma of attracting new retention of vertical e-commerce. Although Vipshop's revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan last year, in terms of positioning, the company cannot be called a platform-based e-commerce company. It is still a small and beautiful vertical e-commerce: Vipshop's clothing, shoes and hats account for about 45% of its total revenue. As a vertical e-commerce company, user needs must only be concentrated in a narrow range. For example, in terms of category mentality, when users come to Vipshop, the first thing they think of must be clothes and shoes, not electrical appliances, mobile phones, and food. This leads to one user, many other shopping needs, which can only be transferred to another e-commerce.</p><p>Bottom line: The mind is too vertical, which is both an advantage and a huge disadvantage. Users will only buy this kind of goods on this platform, while other long-tail goods are all eaten by Taobao and Pinduoduo.</p><p>The difficulties faced by unlisted vertical e-commerce companies are similar to those of Vipshop: a vertical e-commerce company for mothers and babies I know, at its peak in 2016, had a GMV of more than 10 billion yuan, and last year it was less than 4 billion yuan. It has shrunk by 60%. Corresponding to the company's valuation, it has shrunk by 50% compared to five years ago.</p><p>Maternal and infant e-commerce companies suffer even more on LTV. A mom, when the child grows up, never comes back. Compared with maternal and infant e-commerce, Vipshop's clothing, shoes and hats are the lifelong needs of users. Therefore, the stickiness of old users is particularly high.</p><p><b>Competition and Dilemma: Pipelinization of Special Sales</b></p><p>The opponent Vipshop faces is not another Vipshop, but other e-commerce companies. For example, Pinduoduo's broken code clearance channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2645bdfac50010ce610f48332896390c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1054\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When Pinduoduo's broken code channel first came out, I was very worried for a while, because Pinduoduo's positioning is naturally suitable for clearing inventory and tail goods. But at that time, I compared Vipshop's so-called \"buyer's advantage\" and found that Pinduoduo had little impact on Vipshop in the women's clothing category. Because the choice of women's clothing styles is extremely demanding. But these comparisons, today, need to be rethought. Why?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5962971ad162b4e3290fd2e6685c0887\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1161\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The scale of users is completely of the same order of magnitude. Pinduoduo has 800 million annual active users and 700 million monthly active users. Although we can't get the specific data of the broken code clearance channel, from the penetration rate, even if the number of users is 5%, the monthly purchase users of this channel are 35 million. The quarterly monthly active users of Vipshop are only 45 million. In the special field of tail goods, Pinduoduo's gross estimate is completely on the same order of magnitude as Vipshop's.</p><p>What is the difference between Pinduoduo's tail goods and Vipshop? What we talked about above is the number of users. In terms of commodity supply, we must first admit that Pinduoduo's supply side is not as good as Vipshop. But if we go back to the tail goods themselves, the requirements for buyers are far overestimated. Why?</p><p>Vipshop itself mainly sells on consignment. Different from the buyout system of TJX in the United States, most of Vipshop's special sales models are still mainly consignment models. What do you mean? It is what inventory the brand owner has and what goods Vipshop will sell. Vipshop itself does not eat the brand's inventory. The tail goods of the brand owner will first enter the warehouse of Vipshop, and then Vipshop will take photos, pack and deliver them uniformly. If they can't be sold out, Vipshop will return them to the brand.</p><p>For Vipshop, its more role is a \"sewer pipe\". The role of buyers in it will participate in judging some styles, but it does not dominate. The reason is also very simple: if buyers can judge which styles sell well, why doesn't Vipshop learn TJX's \"buyout system\"? After all, a buyout costs less.</p><p>Since there is no buyout, and the inventory is still cleared by volume sales, the core competition is who clears more and clears faster. It is more appropriate to compare Vipshop to a \"sewer pipe\". Before the birth of Pinduoduo and Doukuai e-commerce, the management in the country was the thickest and the water flow was the fastest. But today is different. Today, Pinduoduo's tail goods are on sale. Although the pipeline is not as thick as Vipshop, this pipeline is growing very fast. In addition, there are new channels such as live e-commerce.</p><p>These new pipelines do not necessarily subvert Vipshop, but they have greatly diverted the water in Vipshop pipelines. Therefore, let's look at Vipshop's operating income in the past three years, which is: 84.5 billion yuan, 92.9 billion yuan, and 101.8 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of only 10%. The growth rate of e-commerce market is around 20%.</p><p>Today, Vipshop, the tail cargo pipeline, encountered Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">Douyin</a>Kuaishou is a huge challenge, and the growth rate of the e-commerce market is also lower than three years ago. For Vipshop itself, at present, the biggest advantage is still the repurchase of old users, but this part cannot give it a future valuation. Vipshop's stock price fell from US $30 to US $20. In addition to the mediocre quarterly report, the market is more worried that its competitive advantage will be challenged.</p><p>The pipeline of tail goods is a true portrayal of what Vipshop is facing today. Whether this pipeline can be differentiated is currently a test of the ability of the management. For example, whether special and exclusive models can be customized for SVIP. Compared with other channels, Vipshop will exclusively buy out some goods on the commodity side in the future. These are the challenges of the moment.</p><p>The biggest challenge is that under homogeneous competition, Vipshop's new user growth and retention rate is far lower than that of general e-commerce. The current valuation, even based on an annual profit of US $1 billion, still has 15 times PE. And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">Momo</a>This kind of Internet company that does not grow has only 8-9 times PE. As a former shareholder of Vipshop, I hope Vipshop will not degenerate into a company with a PE below 10 times.</p><p>For some time to come, Vipshop will still be a profitable company, but in the secondary market, Vipshop may not be a valuable company. Because the growth is getting slower and slower, the challenges are getting bigger and bigger, and there is only that little profit left.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-06-09/doc-ikqciyzi8699752.shtml\">美港商业评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c4cd7712c75cd06d9344cb8d687270e","relate_stocks":{"VIPS":"唯品会"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-06-09/doc-ikqciyzi8699752.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142216539","content_text":"多年以后，当沈亚回忆往事的时候，犯下的最大错误，不是重金砸向了物流，而是没有在拼多多崛起之前，把唯品会打造成一个用户数过亿的电商。\n\n发布2021年一季报前，外界都觉得唯品会的业绩不会有问题。我认识一个持有唯品会的美元基金，财报前，甚至推测出单个SVIP的年度购买金额，和唯品会公布的16000元左右，误差不到500元。财报前，很多美元基金，基本都一致看好唯品会的Q1财报。\n但是财报发布后，大家才发现唯品会增长如此疲软。尤其公司给的二季度展望，比预期低3%。还有一个是新用户的留存问题，唯品会的季度新客留存尚不到30%。而美团、京东的数据，都在80%以上。如果深度复盘唯品会过去几年的路程，我们会发现今天的问题，暴露的完全合理和自然。\n低速增长的背后：唯品会面临的问题\n如果我们复盘唯品会过去三年的股价涨幅，算是电商行业表现非常耀眼的。2018年，唯品会一度只跌到30亿美金。今年春节时候唯品会一度涨到了260亿美元。三年涨幅接近十倍。\n但是我们看唯品会的股价涨幅，驱动因素主要来自于哪里？估值修复+利润增长。2018年初，彼时唯品会的自建快递品牌品骏，还没有卖给顺丰，导致整体履约费用特别高，2017年超过9%，最终体现到净利润率上，只有3%左右。所以，尽管唯品会的收入在涨，但是2018年之前，唯品会的利润并没有大幅度上涨，主要被自家的品骏所拖累。\n（唯品会的履约费用率，从最高9.5%下降到现在的6.2%）\n直到唯品会2019年把品骏快递打包卖给顺丰后，唯品会的商品，全部用顺丰发货，履约费用率，从9%下降到6%左右，这省下来的3个点，就成了提高的净利润率。所以，我们看唯品会的利润，从2018年的3亿美金增长到2020年的10亿美金。\n如果只看利润，唯品会是一家非常优秀的公司。放在A股，3000多家上市公司，年利润超过60亿人民币的，也非常稀少。但如果我们从互联网公司的视角，来审视唯品会，会发现其完全不合格：\n\n首先是用户增长的Bug。唯品会的季度活跃用户，从2015年的2000万，到最新一季度的4580万，只增长了一倍多点。如果对比拼多多的增长，有点偏颇。我们拿京东作为对比，唯品会的用户增长，会显得极其缓慢。而唯品会的新客增长问题，我认为主要有几方面的原因：\n（京东的活跃买家数量）\n定位较窄。唯品会从成立时，就清晰地定义自己是“一家做特卖的公司”。2012年上市后，唯品会也投放了许多品牌广告，都是围绕“特卖”来营销。但是这个定位，在广大的受众里，仍然比较“垂直”。打折是大众的“通用需求”，但是唯品会的广告，并没有传导到大众人群。或者说：唯品会过往的广告策略，并没有获到很好的用户增长回报。\n商品策略，对新用户吸引力严重不足。\n（唯品会的用户复购率：官网）\n如果我们以复购率这个标准，来衡量唯品会，无疑是一家非常成功的零售公司。2021年一季度的4580万活跃用户中，有4050万是重复购买的老用户，占比高达88.5%。从2015年至今，这一指标，持续呈现上涨趋势。但是，如果只靠老用户以及复购，很容易面临增长的瓶颈。而新用户留存行的原因，我觉得和商品也有很大关系：\n先引用一个雪球朋友的评论：“对买家而言，服饰要选择多，款式潮，上新快，耐逛；对卖家而言，平台要能保证其对买家需求敏感，对设计的指导，对库存管理的指导。而唯品会满足不了女装用户最主流的需求，卖家端也只能满足库存的管理。反映结果就是用户粘性高，但量不大。”\n对应到唯品会的商品端，供给端只能做到有限款式、有限上新、有限需求。如果对应到需求端：对款式、潮流要求特别高的用户，可能无法得到很好的满足。而对应到年龄上，越年轻的女孩子，越追逐潮流。所以，对应到唯品会的客群，新客主要是90、95后，这部分留存率不到30%的原因，很大程度，是在唯品会上，款式无法给她们海量的呈现。所以，最终这些人第一次买完后，又跑去了淘宝、天猫。\n垂直电商的拉新留存窘境。虽然唯品会去年的收入超过了1000亿元，但是从定位上，公司还不能称为一家平台型电商。仍然算一个小而美的垂直电商：唯品会的服装鞋帽占总收入为45%左右。作为垂直电商，用户需求，必然只集中在很窄的范围。比如品类心智上，用户来唯品会，首先想到的肯定是衣服、鞋子，而不是电器、手机、食品。这就导致了一个用户，很多其他的购物需求，只能转移到另一个电商上。\n一句话：心智过于垂直，是优势，也是巨大的劣势。用户只会在这个平台上买这一类商品，其他长尾的商品，则全部被淘宝和拼多多吃掉了。\n没上市的垂直电商，所面临的困境，和唯品会是相似的：我知道的一家母婴垂直电商，2016年顶峰时期，GMV就超过了100亿元，去年还不到40亿。萎缩了60%。对应到公司估值上，对比五年前，缩水了50%。\n母婴类的电商，在LTV上，更加吃亏。一个妈妈，孩子长大后，就永远不会再回来了。唯品会和母婴类电商比，服装鞋帽是用户的终身需求。所以老用户的粘性特别高。\n面临的竞争和困境：特卖的管道化\n唯品会面临的对手，并不是另一个唯品会，而是其他的电商。比如拼多多的断码清仓频道。\n\n拼多多的断码频道刚出来时，我有一阵非常担心，因为拼多多的定位，天然适合清库存和尾货。但是当时又对比了唯品会所谓的“买手优势”，发现拼多多在女装类目，对唯品会冲击不大。因为女装对款式的挑选，极为苛刻。但是这些对比，到今天，需要重新思考了，为什么？\n\n用户规模已经完全一个量级。拼多多的年度活跃用户8亿，月活7亿，虽然我们无法得出断码清仓频道的具体数据，但是从渗透率算，即使5%的用户量，这个频道的月购买用户也有3500万。而唯品会季度的月活用户也就4500万。拼多多在尾货特别领域，毛估估算，已经完全和唯品会一个量级了。\n拼多多的尾货，和唯品会有什么区别？上面我们谈到的是用户量，在商品供给上，首先得承认拼多多的供给端，不如唯品会。但是如果回到尾货本身，对买手的要求远远被高估了。为什么？\n唯品会本身以寄卖为主。和美国TJX的买断制不同，唯品会的特卖模式，绝大部分仍然是寄卖模式为主。什么意思呢？就是品牌商有什么库存，唯品会卖什么货。唯品会自己并不吃品牌方的库存。品牌商的尾货先入到唯品会的仓，然后由唯品会来统一拍照、打包、发货，卖不完的，唯品会再退回给品牌方。\n对于唯品会来说，自己更多的角色是一个“下水管道”。买手在其中的作用，会参与判断一些款式，但并不占主导位置。理由也很简单：如果买手能判断出哪些款式畅销，唯品会为什么不学TJX“买断制”呢？毕竟，买断的成本更低。\n既然不买断，仍然以走量销售的清库存，那核心比拼的，还是谁清的多、清的快。把唯品会比喻为一个“下水管道”更合适。在拼多多、抖快电商没诞生之前，全国这个管理是最粗的、水流也是最快的。但是今天不一样了。今天拼多多的尾货特卖，虽然管道没有唯品会粗，但是这个管道增长特别快。另外，还有直播电商这样的新管道。\n这些新的管道，不一定颠覆唯品会，但是很大程度分流了唯品会管道里的水。所以，我们看唯品会过去三年的营业收入，分别为：845亿元、929亿元、1018亿元，年复合增长率仅为10%。而电商的大盘增速在20%左右。\n今天，唯品会这个尾货管道，遭遇了拼多多、抖音快手的巨大挑战，而电商大盘的增速，也要低于三年前。对于唯品会自己，目前看，最大的优势仍是老用户复购，但是这部分并不能给其未来的估值。唯品会的股价，从30美元跌到20美元，除了一季报的平庸，市场更多担心是竞争优势遭受到挑战。\n尾货管道化，是今天唯品会面临的真实写照。这个管道能否做出差异化，目前极为考验管理层的能力。比如能否为SVIP定制特别款、独家款。和其他渠道比，唯品会未来在商品端，能否独家买断一些货品。这些都是当前的挑战。\n而最大的挑战，就是在同质化的竞争下，唯品会的新用户增长和留存率，远低于通用电商。而当前的估值，即使按照年利润10亿美金算，仍然还有15倍PE。而陌陌这种不增长的互联网公司，只有8-9倍PE。作为曾经唯品会的股东，希望唯品会不要堕落成10倍PE以下的公司。\n未来的一段时间，唯品会还是一家赚钱的公司，但是在二级市场上，唯品会可能不是一家值钱的公司。因为增长越来越慢、挑战越来越大、只剩那点利润。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VIPS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135633756,"gmtCreate":1622160478775,"gmtModify":1704180495597,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oh yeah&nbsp;","listText":"oh yeah&nbsp;","text":"oh yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135633756","repostId":"1100969776","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100969776","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622128550,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100969776?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-27 23:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] AMC cinemas have risen by more than 18%, and have risen by about 980% year-to-date","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100969776","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月27日，AMC院线盘中涨幅扩大至18%，年初至今累涨约980%。分析师对此表示，这一轮上涨可能是由促使散户大量涌入的各种因素共同推动的。","content":"<p>On May 27, the intraday increase of AMC cinemas expanded to 18%, and it has risen by about 980% year-to-date. Analysts said that this round of gains may be driven by a combination of factors that prompted the influx of retail investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21e96b43393c006e9bc19fd5812384f5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb490a9e8a1d91368ad0c74229f78a9\" tg-width=\"763\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] AMC cinemas have risen by more than 18%, and have risen by about 980% year-to-date</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] AMC cinemas have risen by more than 18%, and have risen by about 980% year-to-date\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-27 23:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On May 27, the intraday increase of AMC cinemas expanded to 18%, and it has risen by about 980% year-to-date. Analysts said that this round of gains may be driven by a combination of factors that prompted the influx of retail investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21e96b43393c006e9bc19fd5812384f5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb490a9e8a1d91368ad0c74229f78a9\" tg-width=\"763\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9799452c6e883af5f4b9930336873099","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100969776","content_text":"5月27日，AMC院线盘中涨幅扩大至18%，年初至今累涨约980%。分析师对此表示，这一轮上涨可能是由促使散户大量涌入的各种因素共同推动的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135694434,"gmtCreate":1622160333628,"gmtModify":1704180490003,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Niu&nbsp;","listText":"Niu&nbsp;","text":"Niu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135694434","repostId":"1139893263","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139893263","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621926753,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139893263?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 15:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Due to Memorial Day, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on May 31","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139893263","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。背景","content":"<p>It is reported that on May 31 (Monday) due to Memorial Day in the United States, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day, and trading will continue as usual from Tuesday.</p><p>On May 31 (Monday), the British stock market will be closed for one day due to Bank Holiday, and trading will continue as usual from Tuesday.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p>Memorial Day: It is a holiday commemorated by most states in the United States. It was originally May 30th. After 1971, in order to ensure that federal employees can enjoy this rest day, many states changed it to the last Monday in May.</p><p>In the American Civil War, countless soldiers were killed in the war. At the end of the war, many families in the south began to pay homage to the soldiers killed in the war. Regardless of the north and the south, they offered flowers to the cemeteries of the dead on both sides in spring. Northerners were deeply moved by this and regarded this act as a symbol of national unity. In 1868, May 30 was officially approved as a day to lay flowers to the soldiers who died heroically defending the motherland.</p><p>On Memorial Day, American active-duty soldiers and veterans line up in a long queue to go to the cemetery, fire guns to greet the fallen soldiers, and blow the lights out signal in the army to let the dead soldiers rest in peace.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Due to Memorial Day, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on May 31</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Due to Memorial Day, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on May 31\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 15:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is reported that on May 31 (Monday) due to Memorial Day in the United States, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day, and trading will continue as usual from Tuesday.</p><p>On May 31 (Monday), the British stock market will be closed for one day due to Bank Holiday, and trading will continue as usual from Tuesday.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p>Memorial Day: It is a holiday commemorated by most states in the United States. It was originally May 30th. After 1971, in order to ensure that federal employees can enjoy this rest day, many states changed it to the last Monday in May.</p><p>In the American Civil War, countless soldiers were killed in the war. At the end of the war, many families in the south began to pay homage to the soldiers killed in the war. Regardless of the north and the south, they offered flowers to the cemeteries of the dead on both sides in spring. Northerners were deeply moved by this and regarded this act as a symbol of national unity. In 1868, May 30 was officially approved as a day to lay flowers to the soldiers who died heroically defending the motherland.</p><p>On Memorial Day, American active-duty soldiers and veterans line up in a long queue to go to the cemetery, fire guns to greet the fallen soldiers, and blow the lights out signal in the army to let the dead soldiers rest in peace.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139893263","content_text":"据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。背景简介：阵亡将士纪念日（Memorial Day）：是美国大多数州都要纪念的节日，时间原为5月30日，1971年以后，为保证联邦雇员都能享有这一休息日，许多州将它改在5月的最后一个星期一。美国南北战争中，无数将士在战火中阵亡。战争结束，南部许多家庭开始祭奠战争中阵亡的将士。他们不分南北双方，在春天向双方死者的墓地都奉献鲜花，北方人为此深受感动，将这一举动视为民族团结的象征。1868年，5月30日这一天被正式批准为向为保卫祖国而英勇牺牲的士兵们敬献鲜花的日子。每逢阵亡将士纪念日，美国现役军人和老战士便排成长长的队伍前往墓地，鸣枪向阵亡将士致意，吹响军中熄灯号让死难将士安息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139577940,"gmtCreate":1621647822280,"gmtModify":1704360966694,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I believe I can fly&nbsp;","listText":"I believe I can fly&nbsp;","text":"I believe I can fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139577940","repostId":"1146484174","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146484174","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621610345,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146484174?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 23:19","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"The commodity rally has pressed the pause button, but the benefits behind it are still there?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146484174","media":"金十数据","summary":"分析指出，大宗商品的牛市肯定还没有结束。在此前大涨后，本周农作物、石油和金属等大宗商品都出现下跌。通胀担忧、美联储可能收紧宽松政策的预期以及国内监管层的警告，都让投资者深深捏了把汗。不过分析指出，今年大宗商品价格飙升背后的许多原因，以及有关新超级周期的争论，仍然没有改变。“我坚定地认为，目前只是大宗商品的暂歇期。任何令人失望的数据或不利因素总会引起获利了结的抛售，我认为整个行业仍有上行空间。”","content":"<p>The analysis pointed out that the bull market for commodities is definitely not over yet. Commodities such as crops, oil and metals all fell this week after previous surges. Inflation concerns, expectations that the Federal Reserve may tighten easing policy, and warnings from domestic regulators have all made investors sweat deeply.</p><p>However, the analysis pointed out that many of the reasons behind the surge in commodity prices this year, as well as the debate about the new super cycle, remain unchanged.</p><p>Eric Liu, head of trading at Chinese copper trader ASK Resources Ltd., said:</p><p>\"The bull market for commodities is definitely not over. Every country is struggling with rising inflation, but as long as they don't tighten monetary and fiscal policy, it will be difficult for commodity price gains to cool down.\" With the launch of COVID-19 vaccine, important economies around the world have rebounded. While supplies remain tight, demand for metals, food and energy is increasing, and a range of commodity markets, including petroleum timber, are tightening.</p><p>The supply crunch trend is likely to intensify in the U.S. and Europe in the coming months as more people go out, travel by road, fly, attend summer barbecue parties, and more. In addition, China is also increasing imports of soybeans and corn, indicating that its demand is increasing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/018880b9d089ce4fbfbd13aac3210bb8\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A tough long-term outlook for infrastructure spending and a faster transition to electric vehicles, batteries have also pushed up commodity prices.</p><p>On Thursday, the market was more stable than before. Copper futures rebounded from the previous day's plunge on market forecasts that copper demand will remain resilient even if the Federal Reserve tapers asset purchases or China steps up efforts to drive down prices. Corn futures in Chicago also rose, driven by an ongoing buying rush.</p><p>In contrast,<b>Crude oil futures fell widened due to expectations of the end of export sanctions against Iran and an increase in Iranian crude oil supply. COVID-19 pandemic continues to curb Indian demand.</b></p><p>Bob Yawger, head of futures at Mizuho Securities, said the Bloomberg Commodity Index could still exceed its 2011 record high in the coming months as the U.S. economy opens up further, although inflationary pressures could limit its upside.</p><p>The supervisor said in an interview:</p><p>\"People want to go out, which will bring huge buying opportunities to the market. In addition, the weaker US dollar may also be a catalyst for rising commodity prices, because most raw materials are denominated in US dollars. Due to the upcoming driving and aviation season, WTI crude oil may climb to $70 a barrel in the coming months.\" Separately, crops in the U.S., as well as Brazil and Argentina, need almost perfect weather to meet global demand this summer, so any inclement weather could send prices to spike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cee9704758312cba55b03c02098909e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Metals benefited from rapid replenishment in manufacturing supply chains and the prospect of green consumption in the next few years, driving the economic bellwether-copper exceeded $10,700 a ton earlier this month. Whether its price will continue to move higher depends in part on how aware the market is of infrastructure spending and how long loose monetary policy will last.</p><p>Wall Street has already shown optimism about the outlook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Copper prices are expected to exceed $12,000 in the coming months. In addition, major copper traders<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLEN.UK\">Glencore</a>(Glencore Plc) and Trafigura said copper prices could rise sharply to stimulate enough supply to meet future demand for renewable energy and electric vehicles.</p><p>ANZ strategist Daniel Hines said:</p><p>\"I firmly believe that this is just a break for commodities. Any disappointing data or headwinds will always lead to a profit-taking sell-off, and I think there is still room for upside in the whole industry.\"</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The commodity rally has pressed the pause button, but the benefits behind it are still there?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe commodity rally has pressed the pause button, but the benefits behind it are still there?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 23:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The analysis pointed out that the bull market for commodities is definitely not over yet. Commodities such as crops, oil and metals all fell this week after previous surges. Inflation concerns, expectations that the Federal Reserve may tighten easing policy, and warnings from domestic regulators have all made investors sweat deeply.</p><p>However, the analysis pointed out that many of the reasons behind the surge in commodity prices this year, as well as the debate about the new super cycle, remain unchanged.</p><p>Eric Liu, head of trading at Chinese copper trader ASK Resources Ltd., said:</p><p>\"The bull market for commodities is definitely not over. Every country is struggling with rising inflation, but as long as they don't tighten monetary and fiscal policy, it will be difficult for commodity price gains to cool down.\" With the launch of COVID-19 vaccine, important economies around the world have rebounded. While supplies remain tight, demand for metals, food and energy is increasing, and a range of commodity markets, including petroleum timber, are tightening.</p><p>The supply crunch trend is likely to intensify in the U.S. and Europe in the coming months as more people go out, travel by road, fly, attend summer barbecue parties, and more. In addition, China is also increasing imports of soybeans and corn, indicating that its demand is increasing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/018880b9d089ce4fbfbd13aac3210bb8\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A tough long-term outlook for infrastructure spending and a faster transition to electric vehicles, batteries have also pushed up commodity prices.</p><p>On Thursday, the market was more stable than before. Copper futures rebounded from the previous day's plunge on market forecasts that copper demand will remain resilient even if the Federal Reserve tapers asset purchases or China steps up efforts to drive down prices. Corn futures in Chicago also rose, driven by an ongoing buying rush.</p><p>In contrast,<b>Crude oil futures fell widened due to expectations of the end of export sanctions against Iran and an increase in Iranian crude oil supply. COVID-19 pandemic continues to curb Indian demand.</b></p><p>Bob Yawger, head of futures at Mizuho Securities, said the Bloomberg Commodity Index could still exceed its 2011 record high in the coming months as the U.S. economy opens up further, although inflationary pressures could limit its upside.</p><p>The supervisor said in an interview:</p><p>\"People want to go out, which will bring huge buying opportunities to the market. In addition, the weaker US dollar may also be a catalyst for rising commodity prices, because most raw materials are denominated in US dollars. Due to the upcoming driving and aviation season, WTI crude oil may climb to $70 a barrel in the coming months.\" Separately, crops in the U.S., as well as Brazil and Argentina, need almost perfect weather to meet global demand this summer, so any inclement weather could send prices to spike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cee9704758312cba55b03c02098909e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Metals benefited from rapid replenishment in manufacturing supply chains and the prospect of green consumption in the next few years, driving the economic bellwether-copper exceeded $10,700 a ton earlier this month. Whether its price will continue to move higher depends in part on how aware the market is of infrastructure spending and how long loose monetary policy will last.</p><p>Wall Street has already shown optimism about the outlook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Copper prices are expected to exceed $12,000 in the coming months. In addition, major copper traders<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLEN.UK\">Glencore</a>(Glencore Plc) and Trafigura said copper prices could rise sharply to stimulate enough supply to meet future demand for renewable energy and electric vehicles.</p><p>ANZ strategist Daniel Hines said:</p><p>\"I firmly believe that this is just a break for commodities. Any disappointing data or headwinds will always lead to a profit-taking sell-off, and I think there is still room for upside in the whole industry.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74903\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"161715":"大宗商品","000979.SH":"大宗商品"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74903","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146484174","content_text":"分析指出，大宗商品的牛市肯定还没有结束。\n\n在此前大涨后，本周农作物、石油和金属等大宗商品都出现下跌。通胀担忧、美联储可能收紧宽松政策的预期以及国内监管层的警告，都让投资者深深捏了把汗。\n不过分析指出，今年大宗商品价格飙升背后的许多原因，以及有关新超级周期的争论，仍然没有改变。\n中国铜交易商ASK Resources Ltd.交易主管Eric Liu说：\n\n “大宗商品的牛市肯定还没有结束。每个国家都在与通胀上升作斗争，但只要他们不收紧货币和财政政策，大宗商品价格涨势很难降温。”\n\n随着新冠疫苗推出，全球重要经济体出现反弹。在供应仍然紧张的情况下，金属、食品和能源的需求不断增加，包括石油木材在内的一系列商品市场出现紧缩。\n未来几个月，随着更多人外出、自驾游、坐飞机、参加夏季烧烤聚会等等，供应紧缩的趋势在美国和欧洲可能会加剧。另外中国也在增加大豆和玉米的进口，说明其需求在增加。\n基础设施支出严峻的长期前景以及向电动汽车、电池的更快过渡同样推高了大宗商品价格。\n周四，市场行情较之前更加稳定。铜期货从前一天的暴跌中反弹，因为市场预测，即使美联储缩减购买资产规模，亦或是中国加大力度压低价格，铜需求仍将保持弹性。在持续不断的购买热潮推动下，芝加哥的玉米期货也上涨。\n相比之下，出于对伊朗出口制裁结束、伊朗原油供应增加的预期，原油期货跌幅扩大。新冠疫情继续抑制印度的需求。\n瑞穗证券期货部门主管Bob Yawger表示，随着美国经济进一步开放，彭博大宗商品指数在未来几个月仍可能超过2011年的纪录高位，尽管通胀压力可能会限制其上行幅度。\n这位主管在接受采访时称：\n\n “人们都想外出，这将给市场带来巨大的买机。此外，美元走软可能也是大宗商品价格上涨的催化剂，因为多数原材料都是以美元计价的。由于驾车出行和航空旺季即将到来，WTI原油可能在未来几个月攀升至每桶70美元。”\n\n另外，今年夏天，美国以及巴西和阿根廷的农作物需要几乎完美的天气才能满足全球需求，因此任何恶劣天气都可能导致价格飙升。\n金属受益于制造业供应链的快速补给以及未来几年的绿色消费前景，推动了经济风向标——铜本月稍早突破每吨1.07万美元。其价格是否会继续走高，在一定程度上取决于市场对基础设施支出的认识程度，以及宽松的货币政策将持续多久。\n华尔街已经对该前景表现出乐观情绪，花旗预计铜价将在未来几个月突破1.2万美元。此外，铜主要交易商嘉能可（Glencore Plc）和托克（Trafigura）表示，铜价可能大幅上涨，以刺激足够的供应，从而满足未来可再生能源和电动汽车的需求。\n澳新银行策略师丹尼尔·海因斯表示：\n\n “我坚定地认为，目前只是大宗商品的暂歇期。任何令人失望的数据或不利因素总会引起获利了结的抛售，我认为整个行业仍有上行空间。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161715":0.9,"000979.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166047858,"gmtCreate":1623986577574,"gmtModify":1703825736019,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What !!!???","listText":"What !!!???","text":"What !!!???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34bcbd0d81e3e650883750eea262977f","width":"1125","height":"3747"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166047858","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169240036,"gmtCreate":1623839863025,"gmtModify":1703821006037,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GORO\">$Gold Resource(GORO)$</a>Why again&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GORO\">$Gold Resource(GORO)$</a>Why again&nbsp;","text":"$Gold Resource(GORO)$Why again","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8913c5ce3d566ff67fad7034422987a1","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169240036","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182664694,"gmtCreate":1623570034218,"gmtModify":1704206421076,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up&nbsp;","listText":"Up up up&nbsp;","text":"Up up up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/502b780bcede228214b375325c4e3a4a","width":"1125","height":"3387"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182664694","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186359163,"gmtCreate":1623474908452,"gmtModify":1704204688864,"author":{"id":"3581918381060346","authorId":"3581918381060346","name":"Cy168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007f4971f320847b25962a01452ff544","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581918381060346","idStr":"3581918381060346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Join joint jOy","listText":"Join joint jOy","text":"Join joint jOy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186359163","repostId":"114899451","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":114899451,"gmtCreate":1623063308869,"gmtModify":1704195267674,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a4f89726b3f6319d06a0075bf9ff76","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎7週年】集卡瓜分百萬獎金","htmlText":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可參與活動</a> &#x1;如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。&#x1;如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。&#x1; 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","listText":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可參與活動</a> &#x1;如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。&#x1;如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。&#x1; 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","text":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ 戳我即可參與活動 \u0001如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。\u0001如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 \u0001 \u0001如何獲得獎勵？ 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