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days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.06.13","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a 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21:59","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Oil: Demand Has Peaked, But Hurricanes Are Coming- Analysis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116207905","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Have We Reached A Seasonal Peak?\nThe start of August marks the end of seasonally peak demand by refi","content":"<p><b>Have We Reached A Seasonal Peak?</b></p>\n<p><i><u>The start of August marks the end of seasonally peak demand by refiners for crude oil in the US</u></i><i>.</i>One of the key drivers of this is the onset of fall refinery maintenance season, which typically takes place during the shoulder months (Mar-Apr and Sep-Oct) and leads to less refinery throughput.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc255cd98c5513621f2ee8c9460a52c8\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"437\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shoulder months are the time of the year when demand is expected to be at its lowest and therefore refiners seize this opportunity to take units down for required maintenance.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd6de131a91bc0fa276a386bd60ffd9\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"439\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shoulder months are also a time when any stress on refined product supply can cause exaggerated market responses since inventory is relied on to make up any shortfall. The risk in the spring is generally characterized by a late, unexpected cold snap which drives up heating demand, and the risk in the fall is generally characterized by the potential for a very damaging hurricane along the USGC that disrupts refined product supply.</p>\n<p>One of the most prolific reactions in recent history by gasoline markets to a USGC hurricane happened during Hurricane Harvey in late August of 2017 when refiners dealt with power outages and flooding. This led to a spike, into expiration, of the September vs December calendar spread in gasoline futures, since the September contract was the still on the board as Harvey made landfall.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fb045286165979c36e245b9027e3473\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"602\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">We saw a similar pattern in US ULSD markets, although to a lesser extent than in gasoline markets.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec51c014870c78de94bd79339bbda70f\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"598\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">By contrast, the impact on the Sep/Dec spread in WTI was benign since oil throughput was reduced due to storm-related refinery outages.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/389e762c1b8ddc784667a006ae5f02aa\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), this year's hurricane season (2021) is forecast to be an above-average Atlantic hurricane season. Last year’s record 30 named storms forced shutdowns of offshore oil production that reached, at one point, 90% of 1.9 million barrels per day in production and idled refineries for weeks. Two refineries in hard-hit Lake Charles, Louisiana, were shut for months.</p>\n<p>Supply-side disruptions of any kind this year would come at a time when total US petroleum inventories are close to their lowest point in 7 years (dark purple line below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da076143ad93d8d50510c04d9e3604bd\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Earlier we noted the monthly shape of refiner utilization. This is starting to play out in the relative value of WTI calendar spreads. With September and October typically characterized as refinery outage months, the front two WTI spreads have started to weaken relative to the Nov/Dec spread (gold line below). This follows the 'shape' of monthly refiner inputs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08e36c0f8bd94e575e36941d99e90a9f\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">This year, on top of the normal fall seasonality and hurricane risk, we also have to contend with countries withholding gasoline exports in order to keep a lid on in-house prices. According to<u>Reuters</u>, Russia's energy ministry said last Friday that it filed a proposal for the government to start a procedure for a ban on gasoline exports. \"The energy ministry proposed to the government to launch an urgent procedure of banning exports of gasoline,\" the ministry said in a statement. It said earlier that the ban may help to reduce domestic prices for gasoline after they rose in recent months, which is a sensitive issue for Russia ahead of the September parliamentary election.</p>\n<p><b>Get long gasoline cracks ahead of outage season?</b></p>\n<p>With disruptions from potential hurricanes, bans on gasoline exports by some countries, petroleum inventories near 7 year lows, and seasonal refining maintenance on the horizon, one might be tempted to to get long Q4 gasoline cracks. After all, we know that OPEC+ will be progressively raising crude oil output by 400k bpd every month for the foreseeable future while gasoline production could face tighter global supply issues if countries follow-through with banning gasoline exports. Yet, when looking at the performance of Q4 gasoline cracks since 2014 we note that we are already trading near the top end of the recent historical range (gold line below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5632a8e1b794bdaeb3ee8d3b8a127ff\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"590\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">We are still in unprecedented times as pandemic effects linger across the complex and threaten to cause disruptions in demand going forward. This, coupled with US gasoline inventories, are holding people back from establishing new length at these levels, even though the fundamental backdrop looks quite positive in the near term. As we noted earlier, total inventories (crude oil + gasoline + distillate) are near 7 year lows. However, gasoline inventories alone are well within their historical range. The market considers this a weak link and is skeptical as to whether or not we get further draw-downs during August (the last of the peak summer demand months) and into the fall like we have seen in previous years.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbd66065e15215d29c5c643f6a4497b\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"602\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Doing its part, US gasoline demand managed to hit a historical peak ahead of the July 4th holiday weekend this year (EIA week ending July 2).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58edaa47416ee362190290f805a2c108\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Gasoline has even managed to trade flat to ULSD in the October-21 contract, which is not the historical norm as peak driving season has ended by then and winter heating season is just beginning.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a616ac7fc8b68bd0f45b1ac0ad851e9f\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"611\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>While the combination of low inventories, reduced export of gasoline by some key countries, refinery maintenance and hurricane season, it might seem as though we are setting up for the perfect storm and the way to express that would be via length in gasoline or gasoline cracks. Demand data continues to look up. According to GasBuddy data, weekly US gasoline demand has set another 2021 record, rising 0.3% from last week (Sun-Sat).</p>\n<p>However, as shown above, gasoline appears to be at the top end of its value relative to it's peers - crude oil and distillate. This makes the market vulnerable to time - the time it takes to wait for the above combination to realize. But, it does suggest that unless things change, pullbacks should be bought.</p>\n<p><b>OF NOTE OVER THE WEEKEND - OMAN TANKER ATTACK UPDATE</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>UK assessments have concluded that it is highly likely that Iran attacked the MV MERCER STREET in international waters off Oman using one or more Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. We believe this attack was deliberate, targeted, and a clear violation of international law by Iran.</li>\n <li>U.S. CONFIDENT IRAN CONDUCTED ATTACK ON ISRAELI-MANAGED TANKER OFF OMAN – U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b><i>Weekly Changes</i></b></p>\n<p>The EIA reported a total petroleum inventory<u><i><b>DRAW of 9.40 million barrels</b></i></u>for the week ending July23, 2021 (vs a build of 0.710 million barrels last week).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6811b3e694effb55630ce977c29bbeb8\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b><i>YTD Changes</i></b></p>\n<p>Year-to-date cumulative changes in inventory for 2021 are DOWN by 94.00 million barrels (vs down 84.60 million last week).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df553ba5217793dddd99320ca1a7c48a\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i><b>Inventory Levels</b></i></p>\n<p><b><u><i>Commercial Inventory levels of Crude Oil (ex-SPR)</i></u></b>compared to prior years are have gone from way above historical levels to slightly below historical levels and should continue to draw as long as backwardation in the market persists.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd707e7ded321d840cf8f884406f3fe7\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/912934d57fc7c6589071338fa6e73014\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>Energy Technical Overview Via Mooranalytics.com</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93470179d3281c7d1f95023171593222\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"530\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil: Demand Has Peaked, But Hurricanes Are Coming- Analysis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil: Demand Has Peaked, But Hurricanes Are Coming- Analysis\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 21:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-08-02/oil-demand-has-peaked-hurricanes-are-coming-analysis><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Have We Reached A Seasonal Peak?\nThe start of August marks the end of seasonally peak demand by refiners for crude oil in the US.One of the key drivers of this is the onset of fall refinery ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-08-02/oil-demand-has-peaked-hurricanes-are-coming-analysis\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRUD.UK":"WTI原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-08-02/oil-demand-has-peaked-hurricanes-are-coming-analysis","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116207905","content_text":"Have We Reached A Seasonal Peak?\nThe start of August marks the end of seasonally peak demand by refiners for crude oil in the US.One of the key drivers of this is the onset of fall refinery maintenance season, which typically takes place during the shoulder months (Mar-Apr and Sep-Oct) and leads to less refinery throughput.\nShoulder months are the time of the year when demand is expected to be at its lowest and therefore refiners seize this opportunity to take units down for required maintenance.\nShoulder months are also a time when any stress on refined product supply can cause exaggerated market responses since inventory is relied on to make up any shortfall. The risk in the spring is generally characterized by a late, unexpected cold snap which drives up heating demand, and the risk in the fall is generally characterized by the potential for a very damaging hurricane along the USGC that disrupts refined product supply.\nOne of the most prolific reactions in recent history by gasoline markets to a USGC hurricane happened during Hurricane Harvey in late August of 2017 when refiners dealt with power outages and flooding. This led to a spike, into expiration, of the September vs December calendar spread in gasoline futures, since the September contract was the still on the board as Harvey made landfall.\nWe saw a similar pattern in US ULSD markets, although to a lesser extent than in gasoline markets.\nBy contrast, the impact on the Sep/Dec spread in WTI was benign since oil throughput was reduced due to storm-related refinery outages.\nAccording to the American Petroleum Institute (API), this year's hurricane season (2021) is forecast to be an above-average Atlantic hurricane season. Last year’s record 30 named storms forced shutdowns of offshore oil production that reached, at one point, 90% of 1.9 million barrels per day in production and idled refineries for weeks. Two refineries in hard-hit Lake Charles, Louisiana, were shut for months.\nSupply-side disruptions of any kind this year would come at a time when total US petroleum inventories are close to their lowest point in 7 years (dark purple line below).\n\nEarlier we noted the monthly shape of refiner utilization. This is starting to play out in the relative value of WTI calendar spreads. With September and October typically characterized as refinery outage months, the front two WTI spreads have started to weaken relative to the Nov/Dec spread (gold line below). This follows the 'shape' of monthly refiner inputs.\nThis year, on top of the normal fall seasonality and hurricane risk, we also have to contend with countries withholding gasoline exports in order to keep a lid on in-house prices. According toReuters, Russia's energy ministry said last Friday that it filed a proposal for the government to start a procedure for a ban on gasoline exports. \"The energy ministry proposed to the government to launch an urgent procedure of banning exports of gasoline,\" the ministry said in a statement. It said earlier that the ban may help to reduce domestic prices for gasoline after they rose in recent months, which is a sensitive issue for Russia ahead of the September parliamentary election.\nGet long gasoline cracks ahead of outage season?\nWith disruptions from potential hurricanes, bans on gasoline exports by some countries, petroleum inventories near 7 year lows, and seasonal refining maintenance on the horizon, one might be tempted to to get long Q4 gasoline cracks. After all, we know that OPEC+ will be progressively raising crude oil output by 400k bpd every month for the foreseeable future while gasoline production could face tighter global supply issues if countries follow-through with banning gasoline exports. Yet, when looking at the performance of Q4 gasoline cracks since 2014 we note that we are already trading near the top end of the recent historical range (gold line below).\nWe are still in unprecedented times as pandemic effects linger across the complex and threaten to cause disruptions in demand going forward. This, coupled with US gasoline inventories, are holding people back from establishing new length at these levels, even though the fundamental backdrop looks quite positive in the near term. As we noted earlier, total inventories (crude oil + gasoline + distillate) are near 7 year lows. However, gasoline inventories alone are well within their historical range. The market considers this a weak link and is skeptical as to whether or not we get further draw-downs during August (the last of the peak summer demand months) and into the fall like we have seen in previous years.\nDoing its part, US gasoline demand managed to hit a historical peak ahead of the July 4th holiday weekend this year (EIA week ending July 2).\nGasoline has even managed to trade flat to ULSD in the October-21 contract, which is not the historical norm as peak driving season has ended by then and winter heating season is just beginning.\n\nWhile the combination of low inventories, reduced export of gasoline by some key countries, refinery maintenance and hurricane season, it might seem as though we are setting up for the perfect storm and the way to express that would be via length in gasoline or gasoline cracks. Demand data continues to look up. According to GasBuddy data, weekly US gasoline demand has set another 2021 record, rising 0.3% from last week (Sun-Sat).\nHowever, as shown above, gasoline appears to be at the top end of its value relative to it's peers - crude oil and distillate. This makes the market vulnerable to time - the time it takes to wait for the above combination to realize. But, it does suggest that unless things change, pullbacks should be bought.\nOF NOTE OVER THE WEEKEND - OMAN TANKER ATTACK UPDATE\n\nUK assessments have concluded that it is highly likely that Iran attacked the MV MERCER STREET in international waters off Oman using one or more Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. We believe this attack was deliberate, targeted, and a clear violation of international law by Iran.\nU.S. CONFIDENT IRAN CONDUCTED ATTACK ON ISRAELI-MANAGED TANKER OFF OMAN – U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN\n\nWeekly Changes\nThe EIA reported a total petroleum inventoryDRAW of 9.40 million barrelsfor the week ending July23, 2021 (vs a build of 0.710 million barrels last week).\nYTD Changes\nYear-to-date cumulative changes in inventory for 2021 are DOWN by 94.00 million barrels (vs down 84.60 million last week).\nInventory Levels\nCommercial Inventory levels of Crude Oil (ex-SPR)compared to prior years are have gone from way above historical levels to slightly below historical levels and should continue to draw as long as backwardation in the market persists.\n\nEnergy Technical Overview Via Mooranalytics.com","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"MCLmain":0.9,"CRUD.UK":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806519276,"gmtCreate":1627667849295,"gmtModify":1703494460490,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806519276","repostId":"1198838390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198838390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627656767,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198838390?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-30 22:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198838390","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far differe","content":"<p>S&amp;P 500’s core outlook remains bullish</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9a9d5fb12a2f91c146699e5be54c5c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P,the NASDAQ-100&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.</p>\n<p>What is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.</p>\n<p>Similar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.</p>\n<p>Two rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there never<i>was</i>much of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.</p>\n<p>This situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.</p>\n<p>The SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033187b97fbfadb4f302aff6d1e0e8c6\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p>\n<p>As noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.</p>\n<p>Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f1634f122ad3efa266cde27ddd8599\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786b9a1f7118e239186772ceb365b513\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p>\n<p>Breadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&amp;P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.</p>\n<p>There was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.</p>\n<p>The cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.<i>That</i>is a negative divergence.</p>\n<p>It can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.</p>\n<p>Over the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.</p>\n<p>The one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX&nbsp;and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647dc26baa4fe92b852e1a1585a5cc18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p>\n<p>The construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.</p>\n<p>So, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.</p>\n<p><b>New Recommendation: D.R. Horton</b></p>\n<p>D.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.</p>\n<p>Put-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.</p>\n<p><b>IF DHI closes above 93,</b></p>\n<p><b>THEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls</b></p>\n<p>DHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/006888c3a8db8d4a3ffa406ebfc2b2e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p>\n<p>That is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except for<b>Cerner Corp.</b>CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.</p>\n<p><b>Follow-up action</b></p>\n<p><b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p>\n<p><b>Long 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 102.</p>\n<p><b>Long 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.</p>\n<p><b>Long 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:</b>The stop yourself remains at 26.</p>\n<p><b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:</b>This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.</p>\n<p><b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to the<b>Sept (17th) 75 calls.</b></p>\n<p><b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:</b>This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.</p>\n<p><b>Long 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:</b>These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.</p>\n<p><b>Long 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:</b>Raise the stop to 22.20.</p>\n<p><b>Long 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:</b>Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-30 22:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198838390","content_text":"S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.\nThe S&P,the NASDAQ-100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.\nWhat is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.\nSimilar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.\nTwo rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there neverwasmuch of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.\nThis situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.\nThe SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.\nThere was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.\nThe cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.Thatis a negative divergence.\nIt can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.\nOver the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.\nThe one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.\nSo, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.\nNew Recommendation: D.R. Horton\nD.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.\nPut-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.\nIF DHI closes above 93,\nTHEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls\nDHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThat is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except forCerner Corp.CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 102.\nLong 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.\nLong 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:The stop yourself remains at 26.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.\nLong 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to theSept (17th) 75 calls.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.\nLong 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.\nLong 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:Raise the stop to 22.20.\nLong 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806083077,"gmtCreate":1627616644699,"gmtModify":1703493455283,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806083077","repostId":"2155380581","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808619687,"gmtCreate":1627572846349,"gmtModify":1703492722378,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808619687","repostId":"1141389413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141389413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627558905,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141389413?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 19:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141389413","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for div","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.</li>\n <li>Dividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.</li>\n <li>Amazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.</li>\n <li>Amazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92fdb38b961293c938988e9eaeb7df1d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.</p>\n<p><b>Does Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.</p>\n<p><b>Should Amazon Pay Dividends?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.</p>\n<p>I personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb9d03526543be149e8628c2939208d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.</p>\n<p>The yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.</p>\n<p>Amazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.</p>\n<p>This does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.</p>\n<p>Amazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for&nbsp;$8.5 billion&nbsp;in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).</p>\n<p>Making these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.</p>\n<p>Amazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to&nbsp;possibly enter the robo-taxi market&nbsp;on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.</p>\n<p>It should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.</p>\n<p>Overall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.</p>\n<p><b>Create Your Own Income Using Options</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.</p>\n<p>If, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one&nbsp;call option contract&nbsp;with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.</p>\n<p>Using this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.</p>\n<p>The strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.</p>\n<p><b>Is Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>Amazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf764ff4b0eca336f5b0f39fc149329\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>At 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated&nbsp;that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.</p>\n<p>Amazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.</p>\n<p>It is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? 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What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-29 19:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.\nDividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141389413","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.\nDividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.\nAmazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.\nAmazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.\n\nmarekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAmazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.\nDoes Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?\nThe answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.\nShould Amazon Pay Dividends?\nThe answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.\nI personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:\nData by YCharts\nThe company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.\nThe yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.\nAmazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.\nThis does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.\nAmazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for $8.5 billion in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).\nMaking these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.\nAmazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to possibly enter the robo-taxi market on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.\nIt should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.\nOverall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.\nCreate Your Own Income Using Options\nAmazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.\nIf, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one call option contract with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.\nUsing this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.\nThe strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.\nIs Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAmazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:\nData by YCharts\nAt 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.\nAmazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.\nIt is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808637511,"gmtCreate":1627572787233,"gmtModify":1703492720553,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808637511","repostId":"1179174010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179174010","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627572541,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179174010?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179174010","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares surged more than 5% after Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19.While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software & hardware, both training & inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self","content":"<p>Tesla shares surged more than 5%&nbsp;after&nbsp;Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a827bd1090dddc0ac2adc7e3aa9e60\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. </p>\n<p>While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software &amp; hardware, both training &amp; inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.</p>\n<p>The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.</p>\n<p>Tesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-29 23:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla shares surged more than 5%&nbsp;after&nbsp;Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a827bd1090dddc0ac2adc7e3aa9e60\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. </p>\n<p>While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software &amp; hardware, both training &amp; inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.</p>\n<p>The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.</p>\n<p>Tesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179174010","content_text":"Tesla shares surged more than 5% after Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.\n\nTesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. \nWhile the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software & hardware, both training & inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.\nThe focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.\nTesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801401670,"gmtCreate":1627525738490,"gmtModify":1703491683915,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"G","listText":"G","text":"G","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801401670","repostId":"1171529765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801190486,"gmtCreate":1627485979945,"gmtModify":1703490994701,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hjmm","listText":"Hjmm","text":"Hjmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801190486","repostId":"1190150353","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":801190486,"gmtCreate":1627485979945,"gmtModify":1703490994701,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hjmm","listText":"Hjmm","text":"Hjmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801190486","repostId":"1190150353","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806083077,"gmtCreate":1627616644699,"gmtModify":1703493455283,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806083077","repostId":"2155380581","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801401670,"gmtCreate":1627525738490,"gmtModify":1703491683915,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"G","listText":"G","text":"G","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801401670","repostId":"1171529765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807722788,"gmtCreate":1628060405744,"gmtModify":1703500469269,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807722788","repostId":"2156743271","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806519276,"gmtCreate":1627667849295,"gmtModify":1703494460490,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806519276","repostId":"1198838390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198838390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627656767,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198838390?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-30 22:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198838390","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far differe","content":"<p>S&amp;P 500’s core outlook remains bullish</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9a9d5fb12a2f91c146699e5be54c5c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P,the NASDAQ-100&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.</p>\n<p>What is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.</p>\n<p>Similar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.</p>\n<p>Two rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there never<i>was</i>much of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.</p>\n<p>This situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.</p>\n<p>The SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033187b97fbfadb4f302aff6d1e0e8c6\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p>\n<p>As noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.</p>\n<p>Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f1634f122ad3efa266cde27ddd8599\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786b9a1f7118e239186772ceb365b513\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p>\n<p>Breadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&amp;P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.</p>\n<p>There was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.</p>\n<p>The cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.<i>That</i>is a negative divergence.</p>\n<p>It can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.</p>\n<p>Over the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.</p>\n<p>The one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX&nbsp;and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647dc26baa4fe92b852e1a1585a5cc18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p>\n<p>The construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.</p>\n<p>So, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.</p>\n<p><b>New Recommendation: D.R. Horton</b></p>\n<p>D.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.</p>\n<p>Put-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.</p>\n<p><b>IF DHI closes above 93,</b></p>\n<p><b>THEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls</b></p>\n<p>DHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/006888c3a8db8d4a3ffa406ebfc2b2e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p>\n<p>That is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except for<b>Cerner Corp.</b>CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.</p>\n<p><b>Follow-up action</b></p>\n<p><b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p>\n<p><b>Long 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 102.</p>\n<p><b>Long 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.</p>\n<p><b>Long 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:</b>The stop yourself remains at 26.</p>\n<p><b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:</b>This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.</p>\n<p><b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to the<b>Sept (17th) 75 calls.</b></p>\n<p><b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:</b>This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.</p>\n<p><b>Long 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:</b>These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.</p>\n<p><b>Long 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:</b>Raise the stop to 22.20.</p>\n<p><b>Long 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:</b>Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-30 22:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198838390","content_text":"S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.\nThe S&P,the NASDAQ-100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.\nWhat is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.\nSimilar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.\nTwo rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there neverwasmuch of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.\nThis situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.\nThe SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.\nThere was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.\nThe cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.Thatis a negative divergence.\nIt can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.\nOver the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.\nThe one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.\nSo, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.\nNew Recommendation: D.R. Horton\nD.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.\nPut-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.\nIF DHI closes above 93,\nTHEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls\nDHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThat is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except forCerner Corp.CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 102.\nLong 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.\nLong 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:The stop yourself remains at 26.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.\nLong 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to theSept (17th) 75 calls.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.\nLong 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.\nLong 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:Raise the stop to 22.20.\nLong 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808619687,"gmtCreate":1627572846349,"gmtModify":1703492722378,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808619687","repostId":"1141389413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141389413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627558905,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141389413?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 19:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141389413","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for div","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.</li>\n <li>Dividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.</li>\n <li>Amazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.</li>\n <li>Amazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92fdb38b961293c938988e9eaeb7df1d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.</p>\n<p><b>Does Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.</p>\n<p><b>Should Amazon Pay Dividends?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.</p>\n<p>I personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb9d03526543be149e8628c2939208d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.</p>\n<p>The yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.</p>\n<p>Amazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.</p>\n<p>This does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.</p>\n<p>Amazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for&nbsp;$8.5 billion&nbsp;in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).</p>\n<p>Making these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.</p>\n<p>Amazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to&nbsp;possibly enter the robo-taxi market&nbsp;on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.</p>\n<p>It should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.</p>\n<p>Overall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.</p>\n<p><b>Create Your Own Income Using Options</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.</p>\n<p>If, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one&nbsp;call option contract&nbsp;with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.</p>\n<p>Using this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.</p>\n<p>The strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.</p>\n<p><b>Is Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>Amazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf764ff4b0eca336f5b0f39fc149329\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>At 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated&nbsp;that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.</p>\n<p>Amazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.</p>\n<p>It is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-29 19:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.\nDividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141389413","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.\nDividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.\nAmazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.\nAmazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.\n\nmarekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAmazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.\nDoes Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?\nThe answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.\nShould Amazon Pay Dividends?\nThe answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.\nI personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:\nData by YCharts\nThe company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.\nThe yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.\nAmazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.\nThis does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.\nAmazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for $8.5 billion in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).\nMaking these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.\nAmazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to possibly enter the robo-taxi market on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.\nIt should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.\nOverall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.\nCreate Your Own Income Using Options\nAmazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.\nIf, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one call option contract with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.\nUsing this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.\nThe strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.\nIs Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAmazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:\nData by YCharts\nAt 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.\nAmazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.\nIt is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808637511,"gmtCreate":1627572787233,"gmtModify":1703492720553,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808637511","repostId":"1179174010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179174010","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627572541,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179174010?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179174010","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares surged more than 5% after Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19.While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software & hardware, both training & inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self","content":"<p>Tesla shares surged more than 5%&nbsp;after&nbsp;Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a827bd1090dddc0ac2adc7e3aa9e60\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. </p>\n<p>While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software &amp; hardware, both training &amp; inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.</p>\n<p>The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.</p>\n<p>Tesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-29 23:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla shares surged more than 5%&nbsp;after&nbsp;Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a827bd1090dddc0ac2adc7e3aa9e60\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. </p>\n<p>While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software &amp; hardware, both training &amp; inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.</p>\n<p>The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.</p>\n<p>Tesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179174010","content_text":"Tesla shares surged more than 5% after Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.\n\nTesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. \nWhile the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software & hardware, both training & inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.\nThe focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.\nTesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807725889,"gmtCreate":1628060430841,"gmtModify":1703500469095,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807725889","repostId":"2156512711","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804934973,"gmtCreate":1627915358292,"gmtModify":1703497859249,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804934973","repostId":"1116207905","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116207905","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627912749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116207905?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 21:59","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Oil: Demand Has Peaked, But Hurricanes Are Coming- Analysis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116207905","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Have We Reached A Seasonal Peak?\nThe start of August marks the end of seasonally peak demand by refi","content":"<p><b>Have We Reached A Seasonal Peak?</b></p>\n<p><i><u>The start of August marks the end of seasonally peak demand by refiners for crude oil in the US</u></i><i>.</i>One of the key drivers of this is the onset of fall refinery maintenance season, which typically takes place during the shoulder months (Mar-Apr and Sep-Oct) and leads to less refinery throughput.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc255cd98c5513621f2ee8c9460a52c8\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"437\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shoulder months are the time of the year when demand is expected to be at its lowest and therefore refiners seize this opportunity to take units down for required maintenance.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd6de131a91bc0fa276a386bd60ffd9\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"439\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Shoulder months are also a time when any stress on refined product supply can cause exaggerated market responses since inventory is relied on to make up any shortfall. The risk in the spring is generally characterized by a late, unexpected cold snap which drives up heating demand, and the risk in the fall is generally characterized by the potential for a very damaging hurricane along the USGC that disrupts refined product supply.</p>\n<p>One of the most prolific reactions in recent history by gasoline markets to a USGC hurricane happened during Hurricane Harvey in late August of 2017 when refiners dealt with power outages and flooding. This led to a spike, into expiration, of the September vs December calendar spread in gasoline futures, since the September contract was the still on the board as Harvey made landfall.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fb045286165979c36e245b9027e3473\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"602\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">We saw a similar pattern in US ULSD markets, although to a lesser extent than in gasoline markets.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec51c014870c78de94bd79339bbda70f\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"598\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">By contrast, the impact on the Sep/Dec spread in WTI was benign since oil throughput was reduced due to storm-related refinery outages.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/389e762c1b8ddc784667a006ae5f02aa\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), this year's hurricane season (2021) is forecast to be an above-average Atlantic hurricane season. Last year’s record 30 named storms forced shutdowns of offshore oil production that reached, at one point, 90% of 1.9 million barrels per day in production and idled refineries for weeks. Two refineries in hard-hit Lake Charles, Louisiana, were shut for months.</p>\n<p>Supply-side disruptions of any kind this year would come at a time when total US petroleum inventories are close to their lowest point in 7 years (dark purple line below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da076143ad93d8d50510c04d9e3604bd\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Earlier we noted the monthly shape of refiner utilization. This is starting to play out in the relative value of WTI calendar spreads. With September and October typically characterized as refinery outage months, the front two WTI spreads have started to weaken relative to the Nov/Dec spread (gold line below). This follows the 'shape' of monthly refiner inputs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08e36c0f8bd94e575e36941d99e90a9f\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">This year, on top of the normal fall seasonality and hurricane risk, we also have to contend with countries withholding gasoline exports in order to keep a lid on in-house prices. According to<u>Reuters</u>, Russia's energy ministry said last Friday that it filed a proposal for the government to start a procedure for a ban on gasoline exports. \"The energy ministry proposed to the government to launch an urgent procedure of banning exports of gasoline,\" the ministry said in a statement. It said earlier that the ban may help to reduce domestic prices for gasoline after they rose in recent months, which is a sensitive issue for Russia ahead of the September parliamentary election.</p>\n<p><b>Get long gasoline cracks ahead of outage season?</b></p>\n<p>With disruptions from potential hurricanes, bans on gasoline exports by some countries, petroleum inventories near 7 year lows, and seasonal refining maintenance on the horizon, one might be tempted to to get long Q4 gasoline cracks. After all, we know that OPEC+ will be progressively raising crude oil output by 400k bpd every month for the foreseeable future while gasoline production could face tighter global supply issues if countries follow-through with banning gasoline exports. Yet, when looking at the performance of Q4 gasoline cracks since 2014 we note that we are already trading near the top end of the recent historical range (gold line below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5632a8e1b794bdaeb3ee8d3b8a127ff\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"590\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">We are still in unprecedented times as pandemic effects linger across the complex and threaten to cause disruptions in demand going forward. This, coupled with US gasoline inventories, are holding people back from establishing new length at these levels, even though the fundamental backdrop looks quite positive in the near term. As we noted earlier, total inventories (crude oil + gasoline + distillate) are near 7 year lows. However, gasoline inventories alone are well within their historical range. The market considers this a weak link and is skeptical as to whether or not we get further draw-downs during August (the last of the peak summer demand months) and into the fall like we have seen in previous years.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbd66065e15215d29c5c643f6a4497b\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"602\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Doing its part, US gasoline demand managed to hit a historical peak ahead of the July 4th holiday weekend this year (EIA week ending July 2).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58edaa47416ee362190290f805a2c108\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Gasoline has even managed to trade flat to ULSD in the October-21 contract, which is not the historical norm as peak driving season has ended by then and winter heating season is just beginning.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a616ac7fc8b68bd0f45b1ac0ad851e9f\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"611\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>While the combination of low inventories, reduced export of gasoline by some key countries, refinery maintenance and hurricane season, it might seem as though we are setting up for the perfect storm and the way to express that would be via length in gasoline or gasoline cracks. Demand data continues to look up. According to GasBuddy data, weekly US gasoline demand has set another 2021 record, rising 0.3% from last week (Sun-Sat).</p>\n<p>However, as shown above, gasoline appears to be at the top end of its value relative to it's peers - crude oil and distillate. This makes the market vulnerable to time - the time it takes to wait for the above combination to realize. But, it does suggest that unless things change, pullbacks should be bought.</p>\n<p><b>OF NOTE OVER THE WEEKEND - OMAN TANKER ATTACK UPDATE</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>UK assessments have concluded that it is highly likely that Iran attacked the MV MERCER STREET in international waters off Oman using one or more Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. We believe this attack was deliberate, targeted, and a clear violation of international law by Iran.</li>\n <li>U.S. CONFIDENT IRAN CONDUCTED ATTACK ON ISRAELI-MANAGED TANKER OFF OMAN – U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b><i>Weekly Changes</i></b></p>\n<p>The EIA reported a total petroleum inventory<u><i><b>DRAW of 9.40 million barrels</b></i></u>for the week ending July23, 2021 (vs a build of 0.710 million barrels last week).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6811b3e694effb55630ce977c29bbeb8\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b><i>YTD Changes</i></b></p>\n<p>Year-to-date cumulative changes in inventory for 2021 are DOWN by 94.00 million barrels (vs down 84.60 million last week).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df553ba5217793dddd99320ca1a7c48a\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i><b>Inventory Levels</b></i></p>\n<p><b><u><i>Commercial Inventory levels of Crude Oil (ex-SPR)</i></u></b>compared to prior years are have gone from way above historical levels to slightly below historical levels and should continue to draw as long as backwardation in the market persists.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd707e7ded321d840cf8f884406f3fe7\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/912934d57fc7c6589071338fa6e73014\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>Energy Technical Overview Via Mooranalytics.com</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93470179d3281c7d1f95023171593222\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"530\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil: Demand Has Peaked, But Hurricanes Are Coming- Analysis\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 21:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-08-02/oil-demand-has-peaked-hurricanes-are-coming-analysis><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Have We Reached A Seasonal Peak?\nThe start of August marks the end of seasonally peak demand by refiners for crude oil in the US.One of the key drivers of this is the onset of fall refinery ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-08-02/oil-demand-has-peaked-hurricanes-are-coming-analysis\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRUD.UK":"WTI原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-08-02/oil-demand-has-peaked-hurricanes-are-coming-analysis","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116207905","content_text":"Have We Reached A Seasonal Peak?\nThe start of August marks the end of seasonally peak demand by refiners for crude oil in the US.One of the key drivers of this is the onset of fall refinery maintenance season, which typically takes place during the shoulder months (Mar-Apr and Sep-Oct) and leads to less refinery throughput.\nShoulder months are the time of the year when demand is expected to be at its lowest and therefore refiners seize this opportunity to take units down for required maintenance.\nShoulder months are also a time when any stress on refined product supply can cause exaggerated market responses since inventory is relied on to make up any shortfall. The risk in the spring is generally characterized by a late, unexpected cold snap which drives up heating demand, and the risk in the fall is generally characterized by the potential for a very damaging hurricane along the USGC that disrupts refined product supply.\nOne of the most prolific reactions in recent history by gasoline markets to a USGC hurricane happened during Hurricane Harvey in late August of 2017 when refiners dealt with power outages and flooding. This led to a spike, into expiration, of the September vs December calendar spread in gasoline futures, since the September contract was the still on the board as Harvey made landfall.\nWe saw a similar pattern in US ULSD markets, although to a lesser extent than in gasoline markets.\nBy contrast, the impact on the Sep/Dec spread in WTI was benign since oil throughput was reduced due to storm-related refinery outages.\nAccording to the American Petroleum Institute (API), this year's hurricane season (2021) is forecast to be an above-average Atlantic hurricane season. Last year’s record 30 named storms forced shutdowns of offshore oil production that reached, at one point, 90% of 1.9 million barrels per day in production and idled refineries for weeks. Two refineries in hard-hit Lake Charles, Louisiana, were shut for months.\nSupply-side disruptions of any kind this year would come at a time when total US petroleum inventories are close to their lowest point in 7 years (dark purple line below).\n\nEarlier we noted the monthly shape of refiner utilization. This is starting to play out in the relative value of WTI calendar spreads. With September and October typically characterized as refinery outage months, the front two WTI spreads have started to weaken relative to the Nov/Dec spread (gold line below). This follows the 'shape' of monthly refiner inputs.\nThis year, on top of the normal fall seasonality and hurricane risk, we also have to contend with countries withholding gasoline exports in order to keep a lid on in-house prices. According toReuters, Russia's energy ministry said last Friday that it filed a proposal for the government to start a procedure for a ban on gasoline exports. \"The energy ministry proposed to the government to launch an urgent procedure of banning exports of gasoline,\" the ministry said in a statement. It said earlier that the ban may help to reduce domestic prices for gasoline after they rose in recent months, which is a sensitive issue for Russia ahead of the September parliamentary election.\nGet long gasoline cracks ahead of outage season?\nWith disruptions from potential hurricanes, bans on gasoline exports by some countries, petroleum inventories near 7 year lows, and seasonal refining maintenance on the horizon, one might be tempted to to get long Q4 gasoline cracks. After all, we know that OPEC+ will be progressively raising crude oil output by 400k bpd every month for the foreseeable future while gasoline production could face tighter global supply issues if countries follow-through with banning gasoline exports. Yet, when looking at the performance of Q4 gasoline cracks since 2014 we note that we are already trading near the top end of the recent historical range (gold line below).\nWe are still in unprecedented times as pandemic effects linger across the complex and threaten to cause disruptions in demand going forward. This, coupled with US gasoline inventories, are holding people back from establishing new length at these levels, even though the fundamental backdrop looks quite positive in the near term. As we noted earlier, total inventories (crude oil + gasoline + distillate) are near 7 year lows. However, gasoline inventories alone are well within their historical range. The market considers this a weak link and is skeptical as to whether or not we get further draw-downs during August (the last of the peak summer demand months) and into the fall like we have seen in previous years.\nDoing its part, US gasoline demand managed to hit a historical peak ahead of the July 4th holiday weekend this year (EIA week ending July 2).\nGasoline has even managed to trade flat to ULSD in the October-21 contract, which is not the historical norm as peak driving season has ended by then and winter heating season is just beginning.\n\nWhile the combination of low inventories, reduced export of gasoline by some key countries, refinery maintenance and hurricane season, it might seem as though we are setting up for the perfect storm and the way to express that would be via length in gasoline or gasoline cracks. Demand data continues to look up. According to GasBuddy data, weekly US gasoline demand has set another 2021 record, rising 0.3% from last week (Sun-Sat).\nHowever, as shown above, gasoline appears to be at the top end of its value relative to it's peers - crude oil and distillate. This makes the market vulnerable to time - the time it takes to wait for the above combination to realize. But, it does suggest that unless things change, pullbacks should be bought.\nOF NOTE OVER THE WEEKEND - OMAN TANKER ATTACK UPDATE\n\nUK assessments have concluded that it is highly likely that Iran attacked the MV MERCER STREET in international waters off Oman using one or more Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. We believe this attack was deliberate, targeted, and a clear violation of international law by Iran.\nU.S. CONFIDENT IRAN CONDUCTED ATTACK ON ISRAELI-MANAGED TANKER OFF OMAN – U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN\n\nWeekly Changes\nThe EIA reported a total petroleum inventoryDRAW of 9.40 million barrelsfor the week ending July23, 2021 (vs a build of 0.710 million barrels last week).\nYTD Changes\nYear-to-date cumulative changes in inventory for 2021 are DOWN by 94.00 million barrels (vs down 84.60 million last week).\nInventory Levels\nCommercial Inventory levels of Crude Oil (ex-SPR)compared to prior years are have gone from way above historical levels to slightly below historical levels and should continue to draw as long as backwardation in the market persists.\n\nEnergy Technical Overview Via Mooranalytics.com","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"MCLmain":0.9,"CRUD.UK":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}