Subramanyan
Subramanyan
Cautious optimism and a balanced head, never disappointed anyone.
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Honestly,  I personally feel this could be an classic case of dead cat bounce driven & heavily influenced by short covering—traders exiting bearish bets rather than new long-term buyers. Secondly, this is reminiscent of low convictions: Trading volume during the rebound was approximately 13% below the five-day average, indicating a lack of broad market participation. Thirdly,  trump is causing a whole lot of confusion: implied volatility remains elevated, suggesting investors are still pricing in significant future price swings. Finally, this  requires observing if the price eventually drops below its recent lows. Follow-through in the coming days will be critical in deciding if this move represents seller exhaustion or merely a temporary reprieve aka dead 🐈 syndrome.
Well, well: This looks like a classic "risk-on" vs. "safe-haven" move! . JPMorgan’s outlook reflects a belief that the global manufacturing cycle is bottoming out, which traditionally favors Copper  over Gold which is more of the "Fear" trade.  Whether it 8s time to rotate depends on individual outlook for interest rates and the broader economy. From $5626 levels, gold prices have pulled back approximately 11% from their recent all-time highs. Most analysts like JP Morgan & UBS maintain a bullish outlook for the remainder of 2026, suggesting gold could touch  or exceed the $5,400 level again by year-end.  Key catalysts for this would be monetary policy, central banks buying & the search for a safe haven! 
My 2 cents: there is a state of flux in DBS viz. declining net interest margins (NIM) and robust shareholder returns' expectations. Therefore, while profit taking is natural after a massive rally, structural shifts in its revenue model and aggressive capital return policies are mitigating the risk of a full-scale  movement out of the stock. Further, sharply lower interest rates and a stronger SGD have begun compressing NIMs, with management expecting 2026 net profit to be slightly below the record 2025 levels. Also, the P/B ratio is now 2.4x as against historical 1.4x. Overall, it is natural for investors to consider UOB & OCBC which still have P/B in the range of 1.55x or below. But that is no cause for panic - if anything it is too much of a good run for DBS & a chance to di
avatarSubramanyan
02-09 20:31
sure
avatarSubramanyan
02-09 06:49

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