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2022-03-22

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Opinion | Can profit become the "hope" of U.S. stocks?

2022-03-18

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2022-03-18

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Inc.(MMAT)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923757766","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080042070,"gmtCreate":1649823677040,"gmtModify":1676534584683,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092521421596580","authorIdStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080042070","repostId":"2227566789","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017340136,"gmtCreate":1649750321351,"gmtModify":1676534564217,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092521421596580","authorIdStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017340136","repostId":"2226655257","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034573508,"gmtCreate":1647930645739,"gmtModify":1676534281555,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092521421596580","authorIdStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034573508","repostId":"1185192201","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185192201","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647927058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185192201?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-22 13:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opinion | Can profit become the \"hope\" of U.S. stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185192201","media":"中金点睛","summary":"摘要：目前美联储加息已落地，期待美股估值再扩张已不现实，盈利的好坏或将是美股走势的关键。年初以来美股表现疲弱，紧缩担忧、俄乌局势、通胀压力轮番压制市场表现。目前美联储在3月FOMC会议上已经开启加息，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At present, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve has landed, and it is unrealistic to expect the further expansion of the valuation of US stocks. The quality of profits may be the key to the trend of US stocks. Since the beginning of the year, the performance of U.S. stocks has been weak, with tightening concerns, the situation between Russia and Ukraine, and inflationary pressures turning to suppress the market performance.</p><p><b>At present, the Federal Reserve has started a rate hike at the FOMC meeting in March, and it is unrealistic to expect the valuation to expand again. Therefore, profit will become the \"last defense\" of US stocks.</b>However, the inflationary pressure has not yet eased, and the demand margin has fallen back. Whether earnings can resist the pressure is the key.</p><p>In this regard, combined with the disclosed fourth-quarter results of U.S. stocks, we combed and analyzed the cost pressure, capital expenditure and growth prospects that the market is more concerned about.</p><p><b>1. Growth trend: the year-on-year growth rate declined but still exceeded expectations; Technology, energy and medicine are the major contributors</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The base number and the profit growth rate in the fourth quarter of the epidemic declined, but the overall still exceeded expectations.</b></p><p></li></ul>Under the comparable caliber, the EPS growth rate of S&P 500 in the fourth quarter was 26.8% year-on-year, down from 36.8% in the third quarter. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100's EPS grew by 22% year-over-year in the fourth quarter (vs. 45% in the third quarter).</p><p>Considering factors such as the base number and the outbreak of the Omicron epidemic in the fourth quarter, the decline in growth rate is basically expected. However, the overall growth level is still better than the market expectation of ~23% before the start of the performance period, and the number of companies that exceed expectations still accounts for 77%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ac651564732a5bf7fccef89af3e31f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Technology, energy and medicine are the major contributors; Diversified finance, banks, etc. are lagging behind.</b></p><p></li></ul>Driven by the low base and price increase, the EPS growth rate of the energy, transportation and consumer service sectors exceeded 100% year-on-year, and the growth rate of capital goods and raw materials was as high as 60%. At the same time, semiconductors, media and entertainment, biopharmaceuticals and technological hardware still maintained a steady growth rate of 20% ~40%.</p><p>In terms of contribution, information technology (6.6ppt), energy (4.4ppt), healthcare (3.7ppt), communication services (3.1ppt) and transportation (2.2ppt) were the main growth contributions in the fourth quarter. Compared with the third quarter, diversified finance, banking, semiconductors and raw materials dropped significantly.</p><p>Overall, in the third quarter of 2021, the U.S. stock market has repaired the \"gap\" under the impact of the pandemic. At present, only eight sectors, namely transportation, consumer services, capital goods, technical hardware, energy, banking, real estate and household goods, have not been fully filled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6b4596a4b0bc351d9414fa621901e1\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Cost analysis: the decline of profit margin and the slowdown of revenue are the main reasons for the decline of profit; However, that pressure on cost outside oil price has eased</b></p><p>Since the fourth quarter, the outbreak of the Omicron epidemic has caused a new round of impact on the supply chain. At the same time, the international oil price has risen (79 USD/barrel at the end of September 2021 vs. approaching 140 USD/barrel in mid-March 2022) and the wage growth rate is at a high level (4.8% year-on-year in September 2021 vs. 5.5% at the end of January and dropped to 5.1% in February), all of which have caused the inflation in the United States to continue to rise (CPI has risen all the way from 5.4% year-on-year at the end of September to 7.9% in February 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f0c4859b436e7c57f28dba3a644ed2\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this context, we see that the micro-level<b>Corporate costs and expenses have also risen</b>Although the financial cost dropped to 3.2% year-on-year under the 12-month static caliber, the sales and management expenses rose to 10% year-on-year and the main business cost rose to 11%, which dropped the net profit margin of non-financial sector from 12.4% in the third quarter to 10.6% in the fourth quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb971e0914b76e2791ad0dcd35abf42\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96570a1ca8379331df51dc3cb9f3f3bc\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of sectors, the net profit margins of semiconductors, software services and services, biopharmaceuticals and technical hardware remained high, while media, consumer services, telecommunications services and public utilities dropped significantly, but the net profit margins of energy, technical hardware, software and services increased significantly.</p><p>In addition to the cost side, the revenue of S&P 500 non-financial segment increased by 14% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, down from 15.9% in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Compared with the third quarter, energy, public utilities, real estate and optional consumption income increased year-on-year, but information technology, transportation and raw materials decreased significantly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d1e98ac9bbaaee780dc106c102c21c\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>It is not difficult to see that the decline in profit margin and the slowdown in revenue growth are the main reasons for the decline in performance in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, under the background of slowing overall demand, cost pressure is still the main contradiction of profit prospects, especially under the background that the recent situation between Russia and Ukraine has further disrupted supply and pushed up oil prices.</p><p>However, it can't be generalized because of this. It needs to be seen that the current profit margin level is still higher than the historical average (the average net profit margin of S&P 500 non-financial since 2013 is 10.3%). At the same time, after deducting the influence of oil prices, the inflation of core commodities in the United States has improved month-on-month (decreased month-on-month in February), salary growth (zero month-on-month growth in February), supply chain and epidemic situation, so there is some room for pressure easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6e792e149af3c8ed1986e564b284d0\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Growth and asset quality: leverage has fallen, and cash in hand is still sufficient; Rapid replenishment of retail stockpiles and slowdown of capital expenditure</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Margin dragged down the ROE level in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>Under the rolling caliber of the past 12 months, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial enterprises continued to rise from 19.9% in the third quarter to 21.7% in the fourth quarter in the fourth quarter, and the further increase in net profit margin was the main contribution to the increase in ROE;<b>From the perspective of further dismantling, the tax burden has risen, the interest expense burden has decreased, and the asset turnover rate has risen.</b></p><p>However, from the perspective of single-quarter changes, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial enterprises dropped from 25.3% in the third quarter to 25.0% in the fourth quarter due to the drop in profit margin.</p><p><ul><li><b>Financial leverage fell back, but solvency decreased slightly.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of S&P 500 decreased from 73% in the third quarter to 72%, which continued to improve, but the overall interest reserve ratio of non-financial enterprises decreased slightly from 9.97 in the third quarter to 9.42. In terms of industries, the net leverage ratio of public utilities, real estate and optional consumption is high, while information technology and energy are relatively low, as are interest-bearing liabilities/EBITDA.</p><p><ul><li><b>Cash in hand fell and the scale of bond issuance slowed down.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the cash in the non-financial sector of S&P 500 accounted for 4.9% of the total assets, which was basically the same as that in the third quarter. The energy sector rose significantly, from 6.3% in the third quarter to 12.4% in the fourth quarter; Information technology, communication services and optional consumption decreased slightly compared with the third quarter, but still reached 7% ~10%.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, the non-financial cash in hand of S&P 500 dropped to 1.95 trillion USD in the fourth quarter, of which information technology, optional consumption and communication services accounted for the highest proportion. At the same time, the issuance of corporate credit bonds in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2021 was US$304.7 billion, slightly lower than the US$329.2 billion in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63303e8d46098be7b267dcd67e3e88b4\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Retail inventory is quickly replenished, and it may gradually enter the stage of active destocking in the future.</b></p><p></li></ul>The retail inventory has been replenished rapidly since the fourth quarter of 2021. In contrast, the inventory of wholesalers and producers is more abundant or even at a high level, which partly reflects the poor channels and the time lag of production start-up. The retail inventory-to-sales ratio has also been replenished rapidly since the fourth quarter of 2021, which also verifies this conclusion.</p><p><b>Going forward, we expect that channel mitigation will further promote terminal inventory replenishment, and at the same time, capacity utilization will be restored to digest manufacturer inventory. If there is no new growth driver (such as capital expenditure) in the future, it will gradually enter the active destocking stage.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Both the scale and growth rate of capital expenditure declined compared with the third quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of S&P 500 non-financial Capex fell to 15.6% compared with the third quarter (19.7% in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the year-on-year growth rate of Capex in sectors with abundant cash in hand increased significantly compared with the third quarter, such as energy and information technology, but real estate, optional consumption and medical care dropped significantly.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, Capex in the fourth quarter dropped slightly compared with that in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, retail, media, telecommunications services, semiconductors and public utilities accounted for about 50% of the Capex of the non-financial sector of US$173.8 billion</p><p><b>4. Outlook: Profit slowdown is the general direction, but it is too early to talk about recession; Upside risks come from capital expenditure, downside risks accelerate inflation and tightening</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The valuation will continue to shrink with a high probability, and profit is the main dependence of US stocks at present.</b></p><p></li></ul>Since the beginning of the year, the correction of U.S. stocks has been caused by the contraction of valuation (the S&P 500 index has fallen by 6.4% since the beginning of the year, the valuation has contracted by 10.2%, and the profit has contributed 4.3%; Since the epidemic, the S&P 500 index has risen by 38.1% since the end of 2019, of which the valuation has expanded by 5.2%, and the profit has contributed 31.3%).</p><p><b>At present, the dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index is 19.2 times, which is in the 82.4% quantile since 1990, and basically at the level before the outbreak of the epidemic in March 2020;</b>Static P/E (21.1 times) is basically at a reasonable level (~21.3 times) that can be supported by growth conditions (ISM manufacturing PMI 58.6 in February) and liquidity (current 10-year US bond interest rate 2.15%).<b>However, under the background that the Federal Reserve has rate hike and will start a shrinking balance sheet in May, the valuation is likely to maintain a contraction trend.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, the quality of earnings may be the key to the trend of U.S. stocks.</b>Pure monetary policy is not the key to judging the trend of the market, especially in the rate hike and the early stage of tightening. More importantly, a clear and stable path is the key.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1596fba746d8eceae0bddb31cce5187d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings are indeed under pressure from slowing growth and rising costs, but it may be early to talk about a recession.</b></p><p></li></ul>Compared with last year's high base and concentrated stimulus, the overall slowdown in demand was originally due to the trend. In addition, inflation and cost pressures have not been completely alleviated, so the overall growth is in the slowing direction. However, there is still a big difference between a slowdown in earnings growth and a recession, and a slowdown in growth does not completely mean a decline in the market.</p><p><b>Against the backdrop of the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, inventory repair and gradual easing of channel congestion, we expect that the overall growth of the United States can still maintain a relatively stable growth although it cannot accelerate.</b>The near inversion of 2s10s in the near future has raised recession fears, but we think there may be some distortion. More importantly, except for the government sector, the leverage level of the financial, corporate and residential sectors in the United States is generally low, so they are not exposed to large-scale deleveraging risks.</p><p>Currently, the consensus expectation for U.S. stocks is for full-year 2022 earnings growth of 9.1% (vs. 50.3% in 2021).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e61cd8e6ec1ffbcea36d49380d56aee\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The downside risk comes from the situation between Russia and Ukraine or other unexpected supply shocks that are further amplified and lasting for a longer time.</b>Making the far-end inflation path higher and longer, forcing monetary policy to tighten sharply, which will put more pressure on overall growth and the market.</p><p>Without the influence of the Russia-Ukraine incident, apparent inflation may gradually fall after March under the influence of high base and improvement of epidemic situation. The rise in commodity prices caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine has pushed back the arrival of the high point of inflation (we estimate that it will be delayed by about one month), but it is still falling.</p><p>If there is another upgrade, the market will need to revisit its \"far-end\" rate hike expectations, which in turn will put interest rates at upside risk (we estimate that the long-end Treasury Bond will be 2.3~2.4% higher), which in turn will suppress profitability and risk appetite</p><p><ul><li><b>The upside risk comes from the opening of corporate capital expenditure.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>If it is opened, it will not only provide new growth momentum, but also provide an \"outlet\" for the current excess liquidity, and resolve cost pressure through growth. At present, American enterprises have the ability and demand, but the production capacity and inventory conditions are not yet available. We expect the verification point to be around the second quarter.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zjdj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion | Can profit become the \"hope\" of U.S. stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion | Can profit become the \"hope\" of U.S. stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中金点睛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-22 13:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At present, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve has landed, and it is unrealistic to expect the further expansion of the valuation of US stocks. The quality of profits may be the key to the trend of US stocks. Since the beginning of the year, the performance of U.S. stocks has been weak, with tightening concerns, the situation between Russia and Ukraine, and inflationary pressures turning to suppress the market performance.</p><p><b>At present, the Federal Reserve has started a rate hike at the FOMC meeting in March, and it is unrealistic to expect the valuation to expand again. Therefore, profit will become the \"last defense\" of US stocks.</b>However, the inflationary pressure has not yet eased, and the demand margin has fallen back. Whether earnings can resist the pressure is the key.</p><p>In this regard, combined with the disclosed fourth-quarter results of U.S. stocks, we combed and analyzed the cost pressure, capital expenditure and growth prospects that the market is more concerned about.</p><p><b>1. Growth trend: the year-on-year growth rate declined but still exceeded expectations; Technology, energy and medicine are the major contributors</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The base number and the profit growth rate in the fourth quarter of the epidemic declined, but the overall still exceeded expectations.</b></p><p></li></ul>Under the comparable caliber, the EPS growth rate of S&P 500 in the fourth quarter was 26.8% year-on-year, down from 36.8% in the third quarter. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100's EPS grew by 22% year-over-year in the fourth quarter (vs. 45% in the third quarter).</p><p>Considering factors such as the base number and the outbreak of the Omicron epidemic in the fourth quarter, the decline in growth rate is basically expected. However, the overall growth level is still better than the market expectation of ~23% before the start of the performance period, and the number of companies that exceed expectations still accounts for 77%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ac651564732a5bf7fccef89af3e31f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Technology, energy and medicine are the major contributors; Diversified finance, banks, etc. are lagging behind.</b></p><p></li></ul>Driven by the low base and price increase, the EPS growth rate of the energy, transportation and consumer service sectors exceeded 100% year-on-year, and the growth rate of capital goods and raw materials was as high as 60%. At the same time, semiconductors, media and entertainment, biopharmaceuticals and technological hardware still maintained a steady growth rate of 20% ~40%.</p><p>In terms of contribution, information technology (6.6ppt), energy (4.4ppt), healthcare (3.7ppt), communication services (3.1ppt) and transportation (2.2ppt) were the main growth contributions in the fourth quarter. Compared with the third quarter, diversified finance, banking, semiconductors and raw materials dropped significantly.</p><p>Overall, in the third quarter of 2021, the U.S. stock market has repaired the \"gap\" under the impact of the pandemic. At present, only eight sectors, namely transportation, consumer services, capital goods, technical hardware, energy, banking, real estate and household goods, have not been fully filled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6b4596a4b0bc351d9414fa621901e1\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Cost analysis: the decline of profit margin and the slowdown of revenue are the main reasons for the decline of profit; However, that pressure on cost outside oil price has eased</b></p><p>Since the fourth quarter, the outbreak of the Omicron epidemic has caused a new round of impact on the supply chain. At the same time, the international oil price has risen (79 USD/barrel at the end of September 2021 vs. approaching 140 USD/barrel in mid-March 2022) and the wage growth rate is at a high level (4.8% year-on-year in September 2021 vs. 5.5% at the end of January and dropped to 5.1% in February), all of which have caused the inflation in the United States to continue to rise (CPI has risen all the way from 5.4% year-on-year at the end of September to 7.9% in February 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f0c4859b436e7c57f28dba3a644ed2\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this context, we see that the micro-level<b>Corporate costs and expenses have also risen</b>Although the financial cost dropped to 3.2% year-on-year under the 12-month static caliber, the sales and management expenses rose to 10% year-on-year and the main business cost rose to 11%, which dropped the net profit margin of non-financial sector from 12.4% in the third quarter to 10.6% in the fourth quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb971e0914b76e2791ad0dcd35abf42\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96570a1ca8379331df51dc3cb9f3f3bc\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of sectors, the net profit margins of semiconductors, software services and services, biopharmaceuticals and technical hardware remained high, while media, consumer services, telecommunications services and public utilities dropped significantly, but the net profit margins of energy, technical hardware, software and services increased significantly.</p><p>In addition to the cost side, the revenue of S&P 500 non-financial segment increased by 14% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, down from 15.9% in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Compared with the third quarter, energy, public utilities, real estate and optional consumption income increased year-on-year, but information technology, transportation and raw materials decreased significantly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d1e98ac9bbaaee780dc106c102c21c\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>It is not difficult to see that the decline in profit margin and the slowdown in revenue growth are the main reasons for the decline in performance in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, under the background of slowing overall demand, cost pressure is still the main contradiction of profit prospects, especially under the background that the recent situation between Russia and Ukraine has further disrupted supply and pushed up oil prices.</p><p>However, it can't be generalized because of this. It needs to be seen that the current profit margin level is still higher than the historical average (the average net profit margin of S&P 500 non-financial since 2013 is 10.3%). At the same time, after deducting the influence of oil prices, the inflation of core commodities in the United States has improved month-on-month (decreased month-on-month in February), salary growth (zero month-on-month growth in February), supply chain and epidemic situation, so there is some room for pressure easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6e792e149af3c8ed1986e564b284d0\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Growth and asset quality: leverage has fallen, and cash in hand is still sufficient; Rapid replenishment of retail stockpiles and slowdown of capital expenditure</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Margin dragged down the ROE level in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>Under the rolling caliber of the past 12 months, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial enterprises continued to rise from 19.9% in the third quarter to 21.7% in the fourth quarter in the fourth quarter, and the further increase in net profit margin was the main contribution to the increase in ROE;<b>From the perspective of further dismantling, the tax burden has risen, the interest expense burden has decreased, and the asset turnover rate has risen.</b></p><p>However, from the perspective of single-quarter changes, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial enterprises dropped from 25.3% in the third quarter to 25.0% in the fourth quarter due to the drop in profit margin.</p><p><ul><li><b>Financial leverage fell back, but solvency decreased slightly.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of S&P 500 decreased from 73% in the third quarter to 72%, which continued to improve, but the overall interest reserve ratio of non-financial enterprises decreased slightly from 9.97 in the third quarter to 9.42. In terms of industries, the net leverage ratio of public utilities, real estate and optional consumption is high, while information technology and energy are relatively low, as are interest-bearing liabilities/EBITDA.</p><p><ul><li><b>Cash in hand fell and the scale of bond issuance slowed down.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the cash in the non-financial sector of S&P 500 accounted for 4.9% of the total assets, which was basically the same as that in the third quarter. The energy sector rose significantly, from 6.3% in the third quarter to 12.4% in the fourth quarter; Information technology, communication services and optional consumption decreased slightly compared with the third quarter, but still reached 7% ~10%.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, the non-financial cash in hand of S&P 500 dropped to 1.95 trillion USD in the fourth quarter, of which information technology, optional consumption and communication services accounted for the highest proportion. At the same time, the issuance of corporate credit bonds in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2021 was US$304.7 billion, slightly lower than the US$329.2 billion in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63303e8d46098be7b267dcd67e3e88b4\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Retail inventory is quickly replenished, and it may gradually enter the stage of active destocking in the future.</b></p><p></li></ul>The retail inventory has been replenished rapidly since the fourth quarter of 2021. In contrast, the inventory of wholesalers and producers is more abundant or even at a high level, which partly reflects the poor channels and the time lag of production start-up. The retail inventory-to-sales ratio has also been replenished rapidly since the fourth quarter of 2021, which also verifies this conclusion.</p><p><b>Going forward, we expect that channel mitigation will further promote terminal inventory replenishment, and at the same time, capacity utilization will be restored to digest manufacturer inventory. If there is no new growth driver (such as capital expenditure) in the future, it will gradually enter the active destocking stage.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Both the scale and growth rate of capital expenditure declined compared with the third quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of S&P 500 non-financial Capex fell to 15.6% compared with the third quarter (19.7% in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the year-on-year growth rate of Capex in sectors with abundant cash in hand increased significantly compared with the third quarter, such as energy and information technology, but real estate, optional consumption and medical care dropped significantly.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, Capex in the fourth quarter dropped slightly compared with that in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, retail, media, telecommunications services, semiconductors and public utilities accounted for about 50% of the Capex of the non-financial sector of US$173.8 billion</p><p><b>4. Outlook: Profit slowdown is the general direction, but it is too early to talk about recession; Upside risks come from capital expenditure, downside risks accelerate inflation and tightening</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The valuation will continue to shrink with a high probability, and profit is the main dependence of US stocks at present.</b></p><p></li></ul>Since the beginning of the year, the correction of U.S. stocks has been caused by the contraction of valuation (the S&P 500 index has fallen by 6.4% since the beginning of the year, the valuation has contracted by 10.2%, and the profit has contributed 4.3%; Since the epidemic, the S&P 500 index has risen by 38.1% since the end of 2019, of which the valuation has expanded by 5.2%, and the profit has contributed 31.3%).</p><p><b>At present, the dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index is 19.2 times, which is in the 82.4% quantile since 1990, and basically at the level before the outbreak of the epidemic in March 2020;</b>Static P/E (21.1 times) is basically at a reasonable level (~21.3 times) that can be supported by growth conditions (ISM manufacturing PMI 58.6 in February) and liquidity (current 10-year US bond interest rate 2.15%).<b>However, under the background that the Federal Reserve has rate hike and will start a shrinking balance sheet in May, the valuation is likely to maintain a contraction trend.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, the quality of earnings may be the key to the trend of U.S. stocks.</b>Pure monetary policy is not the key to judging the trend of the market, especially in the rate hike and the early stage of tightening. More importantly, a clear and stable path is the key.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1596fba746d8eceae0bddb31cce5187d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings are indeed under pressure from slowing growth and rising costs, but it may be early to talk about a recession.</b></p><p></li></ul>Compared with last year's high base and concentrated stimulus, the overall slowdown in demand was originally due to the trend. In addition, inflation and cost pressures have not been completely alleviated, so the overall growth is in the slowing direction. However, there is still a big difference between a slowdown in earnings growth and a recession, and a slowdown in growth does not completely mean a decline in the market.</p><p><b>Against the backdrop of the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, inventory repair and gradual easing of channel congestion, we expect that the overall growth of the United States can still maintain a relatively stable growth although it cannot accelerate.</b>The near inversion of 2s10s in the near future has raised recession fears, but we think there may be some distortion. More importantly, except for the government sector, the leverage level of the financial, corporate and residential sectors in the United States is generally low, so they are not exposed to large-scale deleveraging risks.</p><p>Currently, the consensus expectation for U.S. stocks is for full-year 2022 earnings growth of 9.1% (vs. 50.3% in 2021).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e61cd8e6ec1ffbcea36d49380d56aee\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The downside risk comes from the situation between Russia and Ukraine or other unexpected supply shocks that are further amplified and lasting for a longer time.</b>Making the far-end inflation path higher and longer, forcing monetary policy to tighten sharply, which will put more pressure on overall growth and the market.</p><p>Without the influence of the Russia-Ukraine incident, apparent inflation may gradually fall after March under the influence of high base and improvement of epidemic situation. The rise in commodity prices caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine has pushed back the arrival of the high point of inflation (we estimate that it will be delayed by about one month), but it is still falling.</p><p>If there is another upgrade, the market will need to revisit its \"far-end\" rate hike expectations, which in turn will put interest rates at upside risk (we estimate that the long-end Treasury Bond will be 2.3~2.4% higher), which in turn will suppress profitability and risk appetite</p><p><ul><li><b>The upside risk comes from the opening of corporate capital expenditure.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>If it is opened, it will not only provide new growth momentum, but also provide an \"outlet\" for the current excess liquidity, and resolve cost pressure through growth. At present, American enterprises have the ability and demand, but the production capacity and inventory conditions are not yet available. We expect the verification point to be around the second quarter.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PbH4l7SMcZNU0foQFj09qQ\">中金点睛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PbH4l7SMcZNU0foQFj09qQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185192201","content_text":"摘要：目前美联储加息已落地，期待美股估值再扩张已不现实，盈利的好坏或将是美股走势的关键。年初以来美股表现疲弱，紧缩担忧、俄乌局势、通胀压力轮番压制市场表现。目前美联储在3月FOMC会议上已经开启加息，期待估值再度扩张已不现实，因此盈利就将成为美股「最后的防御」。但通胀压力尚未缓解、需求边际回落下，盈利能否抵住压力是关键。就此，我们结合已披露完毕的美股四季度业绩，针对市场较为关心的成本端压力、资本开支、增长前景做出梳理分析。1、增长趋势：同比增速回落但仍超预期；科技能源及医药是主要贡献基数和疫情下四季度盈利增速回落，但整体仍超预期。可比口径下，标普500四季度EPS同比增速26.8%，较三季度36.8%回落。类似的，纳斯达克100指数四季度EPS同比增速为22%（vs. 三季度的45%）。考虑到基数和四季度奥密克戎疫情爆发等因素，增速回落也基本在意料之内。不过，整体增长水平依然好于业绩期开始前市场~23%的预期，超预期公司数占比仍有77%。科技能源及医药是主要贡献；多元金融、银行等落后。受低基数和涨价驱动，能源、交通运输、消费者服务板块EPS同比增速超过100%，资本品及原材料增速也高达60%。与此同时，半导体、媒体与娱乐、生物制药及科技硬件依然维持20%~40%的稳健增长。从贡献程度看，信息科技（6.6ppt）、能源（4.4ppt）、医疗保健（3.7ppt）、通讯服务（3.1ppt）、交通运输（2.2ppt）是四季度主要增长贡献。相比三季度，多元金融、银行、半导体及原材料回落较为明显。整体来看，2021年三季度美股就已经修复了疫情冲击下的「缺口」，目前仅剩交通运输、消费服务、资本品、技术硬件、能源、银行、房地产及家庭用品这8个板块仍未完全填平。2、成本分析：利润率回落叠加收入趋缓是盈利下滑主因；不过油价外成本压力有所趋缓四季度以来，奥密克戎疫情爆发对供应链造成了新一轮冲击，同时国际油价走高（2021年9月底79美元/桶 vs. 2022年月3月中逼近140美元/桶）、工资增速处于高位（2021年9月同比4.8% vs. 1月底5.5%，2月降至5.1%），都使得美国通胀持续走高（CPI同比从9月底的5.4%一路走高至2022年2月的7.9%）。这一背景下，我们看到微观层面的企业成本和费用也有所抬升，虽然12个月静态口径下财务成本同比降至3.2%，但销售管理费用同比升至10%、主营业务成本抬升至11%，这使得四季度非金融板块净利润率从三季度12.4%高点降至10.6%。分板块看，半导体、软件服务与服务、生物制药、技术硬件净利润率仍维持高位，媒体、消费者服务、电信服务、公用事业回落明显，但能源、技术硬件、软件与服务等板块净利润率抬升显著。除了成本端外，四季度标普500非金融板块收入同比增长14%，较三季度的15.9%回落。相比三季度，能源、公用事业、房地产及可选消费收入同比抬升，但信息科技、交通运输、原材料等回落明显。不难看出，利润率回落叠加收入增速趋缓是四季度业绩下滑的主要原因。往前看，在整体需求趋缓的大背景下，成本的压力依然是盈利前景的主要矛盾，尤其是近期俄乌局势进一步扰乱供给推高油价的背景下。不过，也不能因此就一概而论，需要看到当前利润率水平依然高于历史平均（标普500指数非金融2013年以来净利润率均值10.3%），同时扣除掉油价影响的美国核心商品通胀环比（2月环比回落）、薪资增速（2月环比零增长）、供应链和疫情都已经改善，故存在部分压力缓和空间。3、增长与资产质量：杠杆回落、在手现金依然充足；零售端补库迅速，资本开支趋缓利润率拖累四季度ROE水平回落。过去12个月滚动口径下，四季度标普500非金融企业ROE从三季度的19.9%继续抬升至四季度的21.7%，净利润率的进一步攀升是ROE抬升的主要贡献；进一步拆解来看，税负抬升、利息费用负担下降、资产周转率抬升。不过从单季度变化看，受利润率回落影响，四季度标普500非金融企业ROE从三季度25.3%降至25.0%。财务杠杆回落，但偿付能力微降。四季度标普500非金融整体净杠杆率（净债务/净资产）从三季度的73%降至72%，继续改善，但非金融企业整体利息备付率从三季度的9.97微降至9.42。分行业看，公用事业、房地产、可选消费净杠杆率偏高，信息技术、能源等相对偏低，有息负债/EBITDA亦是如此。在手现金回落、发债规模放缓。四季度标普500非金融板块在手现金占总资产比例4.9%，基本持平于三季度。能源板块抬升明显，从三季度的6.3%抬升至四季度12.4%；信息科技、通讯服务、可选消费较三季度略有回落，但仍达7%~10%。绝对规模看，四季度标普500非金融在手现金降至1.95万亿美元，其中信息科技、可选消费、通讯服务占比最高。与此同时，2021年四季度美国企业信用债发行规模3047亿美元，略低于三季度的3292亿美元。零售库存快速回补，未来或逐步进入主动去库存阶段。零售端库存自2021年四季度以来快速回补，相比之下，批发商和生产商库存则更为充足，甚至处于高位，部分体现渠道的不畅和生产端开工的时滞。零售端库销比自2021年四季度以来同样快速回补也验证了这一结论。往后看，我们预计渠道缓解进一步将推动终端库存回补、同时产能利用率修复消化生产商库存。如果后续没有新的增长动力（如资本开支），将逐步进入主动去库存阶段。资本开支规模及增速较三季度均有所回落。四季度标普500非金融Capex同比增速较三季度回落至15.6%（三季度19.7%）。分板块看，企业在手现金充裕的板块Capex同比增速较三季度抬升显著，如能源和信息科技，但房地产、可选消费、医疗保健回落明显。绝对规模看，四季度Capex较三季度略有回落，四季度非金融板块1738亿美元的Capex中，零售、媒体、电信服务、半导体、公用事业合计占比约50%4、前景展望：盈利趋缓是大方向，但谈衰退尚早；上行风险来自资本开支，下行风险为通胀和紧缩加速估值大概率继续收缩，盈利是美股当前的主要依靠。年初以来美股回调均由估值收缩所致（标普500指数年初以来下跌6.4%，估值收缩10.2%，盈利贡献4.3%；疫情以来，2019年底至今，标普500指数上涨38.1%，其中估值扩张5.2%，盈利贡献31.3%）。当前标普500指数动态估值为19.2倍，处于1990年以来82.4%分位数，且基本位于2020年3月疫情爆发前水平；静态P/E（21.1倍）基本位于增长条件（2月ISM制造业PMI 58.6）和流动性（当前10年美债利率 2.15%）能够支撑的合理水平（~21.3倍），但在当前美联储已经加息并将于5月启动缩表的背景下，估值大概率维持收缩态势。因此，盈利的好坏或将是美股走势的关键。单纯货币政策但并非判断市场走向的关键，尤其是在加息和收紧初期，更关键的是一个清晰而稳定的路径。盈利的确面临增长趋缓和成本抬升的压力，但谈衰退可能尚早。相比去年的高基数和刺激集中发力，需求整体放缓原本也是趋势使然，再加上通胀和成本压力尚未完全缓解，因此增长整体处于趋缓方向。不过盈利增速的放缓和衰退还是有很大区别，增速的放缓也不完全意味着市场的下跌。在疫情逐步改善、库存修复、渠道阻塞逐步缓解的背景下，我们预计美国整体增长虽然无法加速但仍能维持一个相对稳健的增长。近期2s10s临近倒挂引发衰退担忧，但我们认为可能有些失真。更重要的是，除了政府部门外，美国金融、企业和居民部门的杠杆水平整体偏低，因此不面临大规模的去杠杆风险。当前，市场一致预期预计美股2022年全年盈利增长9.1%（vs. 2021年50.3%）。下行风险来自俄乌局势或者其他意料之外的供应冲击进一步放大并持续更长时间，使得远端通胀路径走高并延长、迫使货币政策大幅收紧，这将会给整体增长和市场带来更大压力。在没有俄乌事件影响下，表观通胀可能在高基数和疫情改善作用下3月后逐步回落。俄乌局势导致的大宗商品价格上冲已经将推后通胀高点的到来（我们测算延后1个月左右），但依然还是回落的。如果再度升级，市场就需要重新修正「远端」加息预期，进而使得利率有上行风险（我们测算长端国债摸高2.3~2.4%），进而压制盈利和风险偏好上行风险来自企业资本开支开启。如果开启将不仅提供新的增长动力，也能为当前过剩流动性提供「出路」，通过增长化解成本压力。当前美国企业有能力也有需求，但产能和库存条件尚不具备，我们预计验证点在二季度左右。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035847630,"gmtCreate":1647569489331,"gmtModify":1676534245918,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092521421596580","authorIdStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035847630","repostId":"2220717739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220717739","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647559535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220717739?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-18 07:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Microsoft suffered antitrust complaints in the European Union: cloud computing business was accused of undermining market competition","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220717739","media":"新浪科技","summary":"新浪科技讯 北京时间3月17日晚间消息，据报道，微软云计算业务遭到了欧洲三家竞争对手的投诉，称微软破坏了云计算服务市场的公平竞争，限制了消费者的选择。这些竞争对手称，微软的合同和商业行为，使得其云计算服务的成本高昂。法国云计算服务提供商OVHCloud在一份声明中证实，该公司正是投诉方之一。此外，OVHCloud的发言人拒绝透露另外两名欧洲原告公司的名称。对此，欧盟委员会证实，已接到相关投诉。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>News Beijing time on the evening of March 17th, according to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The cloud computing business has faced complaints from three European rivals that Microsoft has undermined fair competition in the cloud computing services market and limited consumer choices.</p><p>The rivals say Microsoft's contracts and business practices make its cloud computing services expensive. But at the same time, it also makes it difficult for its cloud computing service users to choose alternative services from competitors.</p><p>French cloud computing service provider OVHCloud confirmed in a statement that it was one of the parties to the complaint. Additionally, a spokesperson for OVHCloud declined to name the two other European plaintiff companies.</p><p>\"By abusing its dominant position, Microsoft undermines fair competition in the cloud computing services market and limits consumer choice,\" OVHCloud said.</p><p>In response, the European Commission confirmed that it had received relevant complaints.</p><p>In response, a Microsoft spokesman said in an email statement: \"We have been evaluating how we can better support our partners and make our software suitable for customers in all environments, including customers of other cloud service providers.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft suffered antitrust complaints in the European Union: cloud computing business was accused of undermining market competition</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft suffered antitrust complaints in the European Union: cloud computing business was accused of undermining market competition\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-18 07:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>News Beijing time on the evening of March 17th, according to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The cloud computing business has faced complaints from three European rivals that Microsoft has undermined fair competition in the cloud computing services market and limited consumer choices.</p><p>The rivals say Microsoft's contracts and business practices make its cloud computing services expensive. But at the same time, it also makes it difficult for its cloud computing service users to choose alternative services from competitors.</p><p>French cloud computing service provider OVHCloud confirmed in a statement that it was one of the parties to the complaint. Additionally, a spokesperson for OVHCloud declined to name the two other European plaintiff companies.</p><p>\"By abusing its dominant position, Microsoft undermines fair competition in the cloud computing services market and limits consumer choice,\" OVHCloud said.</p><p>In response, the European Commission confirmed that it had received relevant complaints.</p><p>In response, a Microsoft spokesman said in an email statement: \"We have been evaluating how we can better support our partners and make our software suitable for customers in all environments, including customers of other cloud service providers.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-03-17/detail-imcwipih9090181.d.html?vt=4\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ffcdd31788185eb3014b82161a8fbc","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4538":"云计算","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-03-17/detail-imcwipih9090181.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2220717739","content_text":"新浪科技讯 北京时间3月17日晚间消息，据报道，微软云计算业务遭到了欧洲三家竞争对手的投诉，称微软破坏了云计算服务市场的公平竞争，限制了消费者的选择。这些竞争对手称，微软的合同和商业行为，使得其云计算服务的成本高昂。但同时，也让其云计算服务用户很难选择竞争对手的替代服务。法国云计算服务提供商OVHCloud在一份声明中证实，该公司正是投诉方之一。此外，OVHCloud的发言人拒绝透露另外两名欧洲原告公司的名称。OVHCloud称：“通过滥用其主导地位，微软破坏了云计算服务市场的公平竞争，限制了消费者的选择。”对此，欧盟委员会证实，已接到相关投诉。对此，微软一位发言人在一封电子邮件声明中称：“我们一直在评估，如何才能更好地支持合作伙伴，让我们的软件适用于所有环境下的客户，包括其他云服务提供商的客户。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035847136,"gmtCreate":1647569456846,"gmtModify":1676534245912,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092521421596580","authorIdStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035847136","repostId":"2220474040","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9034573508,"gmtCreate":1647930645739,"gmtModify":1676534281555,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034573508","repostId":"1185192201","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185192201","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647927058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185192201?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-22 13:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opinion | Can profit become the \"hope\" of U.S. stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185192201","media":"中金点睛","summary":"摘要：目前美联储加息已落地，期待美股估值再扩张已不现实，盈利的好坏或将是美股走势的关键。年初以来美股表现疲弱，紧缩担忧、俄乌局势、通胀压力轮番压制市场表现。目前美联储在3月FOMC会议上已经开启加息，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At present, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve has landed, and it is unrealistic to expect the further expansion of the valuation of US stocks. The quality of profits may be the key to the trend of US stocks. Since the beginning of the year, the performance of U.S. stocks has been weak, with tightening concerns, the situation between Russia and Ukraine, and inflationary pressures turning to suppress the market performance.</p><p><b>At present, the Federal Reserve has started a rate hike at the FOMC meeting in March, and it is unrealistic to expect the valuation to expand again. Therefore, profit will become the \"last defense\" of US stocks.</b>However, the inflationary pressure has not yet eased, and the demand margin has fallen back. Whether earnings can resist the pressure is the key.</p><p>In this regard, combined with the disclosed fourth-quarter results of U.S. stocks, we combed and analyzed the cost pressure, capital expenditure and growth prospects that the market is more concerned about.</p><p><b>1. Growth trend: the year-on-year growth rate declined but still exceeded expectations; Technology, energy and medicine are the major contributors</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The base number and the profit growth rate in the fourth quarter of the epidemic declined, but the overall still exceeded expectations.</b></p><p></li></ul>Under the comparable caliber, the EPS growth rate of S&P 500 in the fourth quarter was 26.8% year-on-year, down from 36.8% in the third quarter. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100's EPS grew by 22% year-over-year in the fourth quarter (vs. 45% in the third quarter).</p><p>Considering factors such as the base number and the outbreak of the Omicron epidemic in the fourth quarter, the decline in growth rate is basically expected. However, the overall growth level is still better than the market expectation of ~23% before the start of the performance period, and the number of companies that exceed expectations still accounts for 77%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ac651564732a5bf7fccef89af3e31f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Technology, energy and medicine are the major contributors; Diversified finance, banks, etc. are lagging behind.</b></p><p></li></ul>Driven by the low base and price increase, the EPS growth rate of the energy, transportation and consumer service sectors exceeded 100% year-on-year, and the growth rate of capital goods and raw materials was as high as 60%. At the same time, semiconductors, media and entertainment, biopharmaceuticals and technological hardware still maintained a steady growth rate of 20% ~40%.</p><p>In terms of contribution, information technology (6.6ppt), energy (4.4ppt), healthcare (3.7ppt), communication services (3.1ppt) and transportation (2.2ppt) were the main growth contributions in the fourth quarter. Compared with the third quarter, diversified finance, banking, semiconductors and raw materials dropped significantly.</p><p>Overall, in the third quarter of 2021, the U.S. stock market has repaired the \"gap\" under the impact of the pandemic. At present, only eight sectors, namely transportation, consumer services, capital goods, technical hardware, energy, banking, real estate and household goods, have not been fully filled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6b4596a4b0bc351d9414fa621901e1\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Cost analysis: the decline of profit margin and the slowdown of revenue are the main reasons for the decline of profit; However, that pressure on cost outside oil price has eased</b></p><p>Since the fourth quarter, the outbreak of the Omicron epidemic has caused a new round of impact on the supply chain. At the same time, the international oil price has risen (79 USD/barrel at the end of September 2021 vs. approaching 140 USD/barrel in mid-March 2022) and the wage growth rate is at a high level (4.8% year-on-year in September 2021 vs. 5.5% at the end of January and dropped to 5.1% in February), all of which have caused the inflation in the United States to continue to rise (CPI has risen all the way from 5.4% year-on-year at the end of September to 7.9% in February 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f0c4859b436e7c57f28dba3a644ed2\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this context, we see that the micro-level<b>Corporate costs and expenses have also risen</b>Although the financial cost dropped to 3.2% year-on-year under the 12-month static caliber, the sales and management expenses rose to 10% year-on-year and the main business cost rose to 11%, which dropped the net profit margin of non-financial sector from 12.4% in the third quarter to 10.6% in the fourth quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb971e0914b76e2791ad0dcd35abf42\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96570a1ca8379331df51dc3cb9f3f3bc\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of sectors, the net profit margins of semiconductors, software services and services, biopharmaceuticals and technical hardware remained high, while media, consumer services, telecommunications services and public utilities dropped significantly, but the net profit margins of energy, technical hardware, software and services increased significantly.</p><p>In addition to the cost side, the revenue of S&P 500 non-financial segment increased by 14% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, down from 15.9% in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Compared with the third quarter, energy, public utilities, real estate and optional consumption income increased year-on-year, but information technology, transportation and raw materials decreased significantly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d1e98ac9bbaaee780dc106c102c21c\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>It is not difficult to see that the decline in profit margin and the slowdown in revenue growth are the main reasons for the decline in performance in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, under the background of slowing overall demand, cost pressure is still the main contradiction of profit prospects, especially under the background that the recent situation between Russia and Ukraine has further disrupted supply and pushed up oil prices.</p><p>However, it can't be generalized because of this. It needs to be seen that the current profit margin level is still higher than the historical average (the average net profit margin of S&P 500 non-financial since 2013 is 10.3%). At the same time, after deducting the influence of oil prices, the inflation of core commodities in the United States has improved month-on-month (decreased month-on-month in February), salary growth (zero month-on-month growth in February), supply chain and epidemic situation, so there is some room for pressure easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6e792e149af3c8ed1986e564b284d0\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Growth and asset quality: leverage has fallen, and cash in hand is still sufficient; Rapid replenishment of retail stockpiles and slowdown of capital expenditure</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Margin dragged down the ROE level in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>Under the rolling caliber of the past 12 months, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial enterprises continued to rise from 19.9% in the third quarter to 21.7% in the fourth quarter in the fourth quarter, and the further increase in net profit margin was the main contribution to the increase in ROE;<b>From the perspective of further dismantling, the tax burden has risen, the interest expense burden has decreased, and the asset turnover rate has risen.</b></p><p>However, from the perspective of single-quarter changes, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial enterprises dropped from 25.3% in the third quarter to 25.0% in the fourth quarter due to the drop in profit margin.</p><p><ul><li><b>Financial leverage fell back, but solvency decreased slightly.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of S&P 500 decreased from 73% in the third quarter to 72%, which continued to improve, but the overall interest reserve ratio of non-financial enterprises decreased slightly from 9.97 in the third quarter to 9.42. In terms of industries, the net leverage ratio of public utilities, real estate and optional consumption is high, while information technology and energy are relatively low, as are interest-bearing liabilities/EBITDA.</p><p><ul><li><b>Cash in hand fell and the scale of bond issuance slowed down.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the cash in the non-financial sector of S&P 500 accounted for 4.9% of the total assets, which was basically the same as that in the third quarter. The energy sector rose significantly, from 6.3% in the third quarter to 12.4% in the fourth quarter; Information technology, communication services and optional consumption decreased slightly compared with the third quarter, but still reached 7% ~10%.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, the non-financial cash in hand of S&P 500 dropped to 1.95 trillion USD in the fourth quarter, of which information technology, optional consumption and communication services accounted for the highest proportion. At the same time, the issuance of corporate credit bonds in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2021 was US$304.7 billion, slightly lower than the US$329.2 billion in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63303e8d46098be7b267dcd67e3e88b4\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Retail inventory is quickly replenished, and it may gradually enter the stage of active destocking in the future.</b></p><p></li></ul>The retail inventory has been replenished rapidly since the fourth quarter of 2021. In contrast, the inventory of wholesalers and producers is more abundant or even at a high level, which partly reflects the poor channels and the time lag of production start-up. The retail inventory-to-sales ratio has also been replenished rapidly since the fourth quarter of 2021, which also verifies this conclusion.</p><p><b>Going forward, we expect that channel mitigation will further promote terminal inventory replenishment, and at the same time, capacity utilization will be restored to digest manufacturer inventory. If there is no new growth driver (such as capital expenditure) in the future, it will gradually enter the active destocking stage.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Both the scale and growth rate of capital expenditure declined compared with the third quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of S&P 500 non-financial Capex fell to 15.6% compared with the third quarter (19.7% in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the year-on-year growth rate of Capex in sectors with abundant cash in hand increased significantly compared with the third quarter, such as energy and information technology, but real estate, optional consumption and medical care dropped significantly.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, Capex in the fourth quarter dropped slightly compared with that in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, retail, media, telecommunications services, semiconductors and public utilities accounted for about 50% of the Capex of the non-financial sector of US$173.8 billion</p><p><b>4. Outlook: Profit slowdown is the general direction, but it is too early to talk about recession; Upside risks come from capital expenditure, downside risks accelerate inflation and tightening</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The valuation will continue to shrink with a high probability, and profit is the main dependence of US stocks at present.</b></p><p></li></ul>Since the beginning of the year, the correction of U.S. stocks has been caused by the contraction of valuation (the S&P 500 index has fallen by 6.4% since the beginning of the year, the valuation has contracted by 10.2%, and the profit has contributed 4.3%; Since the epidemic, the S&P 500 index has risen by 38.1% since the end of 2019, of which the valuation has expanded by 5.2%, and the profit has contributed 31.3%).</p><p><b>At present, the dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index is 19.2 times, which is in the 82.4% quantile since 1990, and basically at the level before the outbreak of the epidemic in March 2020;</b>Static P/E (21.1 times) is basically at a reasonable level (~21.3 times) that can be supported by growth conditions (ISM manufacturing PMI 58.6 in February) and liquidity (current 10-year US bond interest rate 2.15%).<b>However, under the background that the Federal Reserve has rate hike and will start a shrinking balance sheet in May, the valuation is likely to maintain a contraction trend.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, the quality of earnings may be the key to the trend of U.S. stocks.</b>Pure monetary policy is not the key to judging the trend of the market, especially in the rate hike and the early stage of tightening. More importantly, a clear and stable path is the key.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1596fba746d8eceae0bddb31cce5187d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings are indeed under pressure from slowing growth and rising costs, but it may be early to talk about a recession.</b></p><p></li></ul>Compared with last year's high base and concentrated stimulus, the overall slowdown in demand was originally due to the trend. In addition, inflation and cost pressures have not been completely alleviated, so the overall growth is in the slowing direction. However, there is still a big difference between a slowdown in earnings growth and a recession, and a slowdown in growth does not completely mean a decline in the market.</p><p><b>Against the backdrop of the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, inventory repair and gradual easing of channel congestion, we expect that the overall growth of the United States can still maintain a relatively stable growth although it cannot accelerate.</b>The near inversion of 2s10s in the near future has raised recession fears, but we think there may be some distortion. More importantly, except for the government sector, the leverage level of the financial, corporate and residential sectors in the United States is generally low, so they are not exposed to large-scale deleveraging risks.</p><p>Currently, the consensus expectation for U.S. stocks is for full-year 2022 earnings growth of 9.1% (vs. 50.3% in 2021).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e61cd8e6ec1ffbcea36d49380d56aee\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The downside risk comes from the situation between Russia and Ukraine or other unexpected supply shocks that are further amplified and lasting for a longer time.</b>Making the far-end inflation path higher and longer, forcing monetary policy to tighten sharply, which will put more pressure on overall growth and the market.</p><p>Without the influence of the Russia-Ukraine incident, apparent inflation may gradually fall after March under the influence of high base and improvement of epidemic situation. The rise in commodity prices caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine has pushed back the arrival of the high point of inflation (we estimate that it will be delayed by about one month), but it is still falling.</p><p>If there is another upgrade, the market will need to revisit its \"far-end\" rate hike expectations, which in turn will put interest rates at upside risk (we estimate that the long-end Treasury Bond will be 2.3~2.4% higher), which in turn will suppress profitability and risk appetite</p><p><ul><li><b>The upside risk comes from the opening of corporate capital expenditure.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>If it is opened, it will not only provide new growth momentum, but also provide an \"outlet\" for the current excess liquidity, and resolve cost pressure through growth. At present, American enterprises have the ability and demand, but the production capacity and inventory conditions are not yet available. We expect the verification point to be around the second quarter.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zjdj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion | Can profit become the \"hope\" of U.S. stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion | Can profit become the \"hope\" of U.S. stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中金点睛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-22 13:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At present, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve has landed, and it is unrealistic to expect the further expansion of the valuation of US stocks. The quality of profits may be the key to the trend of US stocks. Since the beginning of the year, the performance of U.S. stocks has been weak, with tightening concerns, the situation between Russia and Ukraine, and inflationary pressures turning to suppress the market performance.</p><p><b>At present, the Federal Reserve has started a rate hike at the FOMC meeting in March, and it is unrealistic to expect the valuation to expand again. Therefore, profit will become the \"last defense\" of US stocks.</b>However, the inflationary pressure has not yet eased, and the demand margin has fallen back. Whether earnings can resist the pressure is the key.</p><p>In this regard, combined with the disclosed fourth-quarter results of U.S. stocks, we combed and analyzed the cost pressure, capital expenditure and growth prospects that the market is more concerned about.</p><p><b>1. Growth trend: the year-on-year growth rate declined but still exceeded expectations; Technology, energy and medicine are the major contributors</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The base number and the profit growth rate in the fourth quarter of the epidemic declined, but the overall still exceeded expectations.</b></p><p></li></ul>Under the comparable caliber, the EPS growth rate of S&P 500 in the fourth quarter was 26.8% year-on-year, down from 36.8% in the third quarter. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100's EPS grew by 22% year-over-year in the fourth quarter (vs. 45% in the third quarter).</p><p>Considering factors such as the base number and the outbreak of the Omicron epidemic in the fourth quarter, the decline in growth rate is basically expected. However, the overall growth level is still better than the market expectation of ~23% before the start of the performance period, and the number of companies that exceed expectations still accounts for 77%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ac651564732a5bf7fccef89af3e31f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Technology, energy and medicine are the major contributors; Diversified finance, banks, etc. are lagging behind.</b></p><p></li></ul>Driven by the low base and price increase, the EPS growth rate of the energy, transportation and consumer service sectors exceeded 100% year-on-year, and the growth rate of capital goods and raw materials was as high as 60%. At the same time, semiconductors, media and entertainment, biopharmaceuticals and technological hardware still maintained a steady growth rate of 20% ~40%.</p><p>In terms of contribution, information technology (6.6ppt), energy (4.4ppt), healthcare (3.7ppt), communication services (3.1ppt) and transportation (2.2ppt) were the main growth contributions in the fourth quarter. Compared with the third quarter, diversified finance, banking, semiconductors and raw materials dropped significantly.</p><p>Overall, in the third quarter of 2021, the U.S. stock market has repaired the \"gap\" under the impact of the pandemic. At present, only eight sectors, namely transportation, consumer services, capital goods, technical hardware, energy, banking, real estate and household goods, have not been fully filled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6b4596a4b0bc351d9414fa621901e1\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Cost analysis: the decline of profit margin and the slowdown of revenue are the main reasons for the decline of profit; However, that pressure on cost outside oil price has eased</b></p><p>Since the fourth quarter, the outbreak of the Omicron epidemic has caused a new round of impact on the supply chain. At the same time, the international oil price has risen (79 USD/barrel at the end of September 2021 vs. approaching 140 USD/barrel in mid-March 2022) and the wage growth rate is at a high level (4.8% year-on-year in September 2021 vs. 5.5% at the end of January and dropped to 5.1% in February), all of which have caused the inflation in the United States to continue to rise (CPI has risen all the way from 5.4% year-on-year at the end of September to 7.9% in February 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f0c4859b436e7c57f28dba3a644ed2\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this context, we see that the micro-level<b>Corporate costs and expenses have also risen</b>Although the financial cost dropped to 3.2% year-on-year under the 12-month static caliber, the sales and management expenses rose to 10% year-on-year and the main business cost rose to 11%, which dropped the net profit margin of non-financial sector from 12.4% in the third quarter to 10.6% in the fourth quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb971e0914b76e2791ad0dcd35abf42\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96570a1ca8379331df51dc3cb9f3f3bc\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of sectors, the net profit margins of semiconductors, software services and services, biopharmaceuticals and technical hardware remained high, while media, consumer services, telecommunications services and public utilities dropped significantly, but the net profit margins of energy, technical hardware, software and services increased significantly.</p><p>In addition to the cost side, the revenue of S&P 500 non-financial segment increased by 14% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, down from 15.9% in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Compared with the third quarter, energy, public utilities, real estate and optional consumption income increased year-on-year, but information technology, transportation and raw materials decreased significantly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d1e98ac9bbaaee780dc106c102c21c\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>It is not difficult to see that the decline in profit margin and the slowdown in revenue growth are the main reasons for the decline in performance in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, under the background of slowing overall demand, cost pressure is still the main contradiction of profit prospects, especially under the background that the recent situation between Russia and Ukraine has further disrupted supply and pushed up oil prices.</p><p>However, it can't be generalized because of this. It needs to be seen that the current profit margin level is still higher than the historical average (the average net profit margin of S&P 500 non-financial since 2013 is 10.3%). At the same time, after deducting the influence of oil prices, the inflation of core commodities in the United States has improved month-on-month (decreased month-on-month in February), salary growth (zero month-on-month growth in February), supply chain and epidemic situation, so there is some room for pressure easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6e792e149af3c8ed1986e564b284d0\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Growth and asset quality: leverage has fallen, and cash in hand is still sufficient; Rapid replenishment of retail stockpiles and slowdown of capital expenditure</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Margin dragged down the ROE level in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>Under the rolling caliber of the past 12 months, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial enterprises continued to rise from 19.9% in the third quarter to 21.7% in the fourth quarter in the fourth quarter, and the further increase in net profit margin was the main contribution to the increase in ROE;<b>From the perspective of further dismantling, the tax burden has risen, the interest expense burden has decreased, and the asset turnover rate has risen.</b></p><p>However, from the perspective of single-quarter changes, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial enterprises dropped from 25.3% in the third quarter to 25.0% in the fourth quarter due to the drop in profit margin.</p><p><ul><li><b>Financial leverage fell back, but solvency decreased slightly.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of S&P 500 decreased from 73% in the third quarter to 72%, which continued to improve, but the overall interest reserve ratio of non-financial enterprises decreased slightly from 9.97 in the third quarter to 9.42. In terms of industries, the net leverage ratio of public utilities, real estate and optional consumption is high, while information technology and energy are relatively low, as are interest-bearing liabilities/EBITDA.</p><p><ul><li><b>Cash in hand fell and the scale of bond issuance slowed down.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the cash in the non-financial sector of S&P 500 accounted for 4.9% of the total assets, which was basically the same as that in the third quarter. The energy sector rose significantly, from 6.3% in the third quarter to 12.4% in the fourth quarter; Information technology, communication services and optional consumption decreased slightly compared with the third quarter, but still reached 7% ~10%.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, the non-financial cash in hand of S&P 500 dropped to 1.95 trillion USD in the fourth quarter, of which information technology, optional consumption and communication services accounted for the highest proportion. At the same time, the issuance of corporate credit bonds in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2021 was US$304.7 billion, slightly lower than the US$329.2 billion in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63303e8d46098be7b267dcd67e3e88b4\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Retail inventory is quickly replenished, and it may gradually enter the stage of active destocking in the future.</b></p><p></li></ul>The retail inventory has been replenished rapidly since the fourth quarter of 2021. In contrast, the inventory of wholesalers and producers is more abundant or even at a high level, which partly reflects the poor channels and the time lag of production start-up. The retail inventory-to-sales ratio has also been replenished rapidly since the fourth quarter of 2021, which also verifies this conclusion.</p><p><b>Going forward, we expect that channel mitigation will further promote terminal inventory replenishment, and at the same time, capacity utilization will be restored to digest manufacturer inventory. If there is no new growth driver (such as capital expenditure) in the future, it will gradually enter the active destocking stage.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Both the scale and growth rate of capital expenditure declined compared with the third quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of S&P 500 non-financial Capex fell to 15.6% compared with the third quarter (19.7% in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the year-on-year growth rate of Capex in sectors with abundant cash in hand increased significantly compared with the third quarter, such as energy and information technology, but real estate, optional consumption and medical care dropped significantly.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, Capex in the fourth quarter dropped slightly compared with that in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, retail, media, telecommunications services, semiconductors and public utilities accounted for about 50% of the Capex of the non-financial sector of US$173.8 billion</p><p><b>4. Outlook: Profit slowdown is the general direction, but it is too early to talk about recession; Upside risks come from capital expenditure, downside risks accelerate inflation and tightening</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The valuation will continue to shrink with a high probability, and profit is the main dependence of US stocks at present.</b></p><p></li></ul>Since the beginning of the year, the correction of U.S. stocks has been caused by the contraction of valuation (the S&P 500 index has fallen by 6.4% since the beginning of the year, the valuation has contracted by 10.2%, and the profit has contributed 4.3%; Since the epidemic, the S&P 500 index has risen by 38.1% since the end of 2019, of which the valuation has expanded by 5.2%, and the profit has contributed 31.3%).</p><p><b>At present, the dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index is 19.2 times, which is in the 82.4% quantile since 1990, and basically at the level before the outbreak of the epidemic in March 2020;</b>Static P/E (21.1 times) is basically at a reasonable level (~21.3 times) that can be supported by growth conditions (ISM manufacturing PMI 58.6 in February) and liquidity (current 10-year US bond interest rate 2.15%).<b>However, under the background that the Federal Reserve has rate hike and will start a shrinking balance sheet in May, the valuation is likely to maintain a contraction trend.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, the quality of earnings may be the key to the trend of U.S. stocks.</b>Pure monetary policy is not the key to judging the trend of the market, especially in the rate hike and the early stage of tightening. More importantly, a clear and stable path is the key.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1596fba746d8eceae0bddb31cce5187d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings are indeed under pressure from slowing growth and rising costs, but it may be early to talk about a recession.</b></p><p></li></ul>Compared with last year's high base and concentrated stimulus, the overall slowdown in demand was originally due to the trend. In addition, inflation and cost pressures have not been completely alleviated, so the overall growth is in the slowing direction. However, there is still a big difference between a slowdown in earnings growth and a recession, and a slowdown in growth does not completely mean a decline in the market.</p><p><b>Against the backdrop of the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, inventory repair and gradual easing of channel congestion, we expect that the overall growth of the United States can still maintain a relatively stable growth although it cannot accelerate.</b>The near inversion of 2s10s in the near future has raised recession fears, but we think there may be some distortion. More importantly, except for the government sector, the leverage level of the financial, corporate and residential sectors in the United States is generally low, so they are not exposed to large-scale deleveraging risks.</p><p>Currently, the consensus expectation for U.S. stocks is for full-year 2022 earnings growth of 9.1% (vs. 50.3% in 2021).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e61cd8e6ec1ffbcea36d49380d56aee\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The downside risk comes from the situation between Russia and Ukraine or other unexpected supply shocks that are further amplified and lasting for a longer time.</b>Making the far-end inflation path higher and longer, forcing monetary policy to tighten sharply, which will put more pressure on overall growth and the market.</p><p>Without the influence of the Russia-Ukraine incident, apparent inflation may gradually fall after March under the influence of high base and improvement of epidemic situation. The rise in commodity prices caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine has pushed back the arrival of the high point of inflation (we estimate that it will be delayed by about one month), but it is still falling.</p><p>If there is another upgrade, the market will need to revisit its \"far-end\" rate hike expectations, which in turn will put interest rates at upside risk (we estimate that the long-end Treasury Bond will be 2.3~2.4% higher), which in turn will suppress profitability and risk appetite</p><p><ul><li><b>The upside risk comes from the opening of corporate capital expenditure.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>If it is opened, it will not only provide new growth momentum, but also provide an \"outlet\" for the current excess liquidity, and resolve cost pressure through growth. At present, American enterprises have the ability and demand, but the production capacity and inventory conditions are not yet available. We expect the verification point to be around the second quarter.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PbH4l7SMcZNU0foQFj09qQ\">中金点睛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PbH4l7SMcZNU0foQFj09qQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185192201","content_text":"摘要：目前美联储加息已落地，期待美股估值再扩张已不现实，盈利的好坏或将是美股走势的关键。年初以来美股表现疲弱，紧缩担忧、俄乌局势、通胀压力轮番压制市场表现。目前美联储在3月FOMC会议上已经开启加息，期待估值再度扩张已不现实，因此盈利就将成为美股「最后的防御」。但通胀压力尚未缓解、需求边际回落下，盈利能否抵住压力是关键。就此，我们结合已披露完毕的美股四季度业绩，针对市场较为关心的成本端压力、资本开支、增长前景做出梳理分析。1、增长趋势：同比增速回落但仍超预期；科技能源及医药是主要贡献基数和疫情下四季度盈利增速回落，但整体仍超预期。可比口径下，标普500四季度EPS同比增速26.8%，较三季度36.8%回落。类似的，纳斯达克100指数四季度EPS同比增速为22%（vs. 三季度的45%）。考虑到基数和四季度奥密克戎疫情爆发等因素，增速回落也基本在意料之内。不过，整体增长水平依然好于业绩期开始前市场~23%的预期，超预期公司数占比仍有77%。科技能源及医药是主要贡献；多元金融、银行等落后。受低基数和涨价驱动，能源、交通运输、消费者服务板块EPS同比增速超过100%，资本品及原材料增速也高达60%。与此同时，半导体、媒体与娱乐、生物制药及科技硬件依然维持20%~40%的稳健增长。从贡献程度看，信息科技（6.6ppt）、能源（4.4ppt）、医疗保健（3.7ppt）、通讯服务（3.1ppt）、交通运输（2.2ppt）是四季度主要增长贡献。相比三季度，多元金融、银行、半导体及原材料回落较为明显。整体来看，2021年三季度美股就已经修复了疫情冲击下的「缺口」，目前仅剩交通运输、消费服务、资本品、技术硬件、能源、银行、房地产及家庭用品这8个板块仍未完全填平。2、成本分析：利润率回落叠加收入趋缓是盈利下滑主因；不过油价外成本压力有所趋缓四季度以来，奥密克戎疫情爆发对供应链造成了新一轮冲击，同时国际油价走高（2021年9月底79美元/桶 vs. 2022年月3月中逼近140美元/桶）、工资增速处于高位（2021年9月同比4.8% vs. 1月底5.5%，2月降至5.1%），都使得美国通胀持续走高（CPI同比从9月底的5.4%一路走高至2022年2月的7.9%）。这一背景下，我们看到微观层面的企业成本和费用也有所抬升，虽然12个月静态口径下财务成本同比降至3.2%，但销售管理费用同比升至10%、主营业务成本抬升至11%，这使得四季度非金融板块净利润率从三季度12.4%高点降至10.6%。分板块看，半导体、软件服务与服务、生物制药、技术硬件净利润率仍维持高位，媒体、消费者服务、电信服务、公用事业回落明显，但能源、技术硬件、软件与服务等板块净利润率抬升显著。除了成本端外，四季度标普500非金融板块收入同比增长14%，较三季度的15.9%回落。相比三季度，能源、公用事业、房地产及可选消费收入同比抬升，但信息科技、交通运输、原材料等回落明显。不难看出，利润率回落叠加收入增速趋缓是四季度业绩下滑的主要原因。往前看，在整体需求趋缓的大背景下，成本的压力依然是盈利前景的主要矛盾，尤其是近期俄乌局势进一步扰乱供给推高油价的背景下。不过，也不能因此就一概而论，需要看到当前利润率水平依然高于历史平均（标普500指数非金融2013年以来净利润率均值10.3%），同时扣除掉油价影响的美国核心商品通胀环比（2月环比回落）、薪资增速（2月环比零增长）、供应链和疫情都已经改善，故存在部分压力缓和空间。3、增长与资产质量：杠杆回落、在手现金依然充足；零售端补库迅速，资本开支趋缓利润率拖累四季度ROE水平回落。过去12个月滚动口径下，四季度标普500非金融企业ROE从三季度的19.9%继续抬升至四季度的21.7%，净利润率的进一步攀升是ROE抬升的主要贡献；进一步拆解来看，税负抬升、利息费用负担下降、资产周转率抬升。不过从单季度变化看，受利润率回落影响，四季度标普500非金融企业ROE从三季度25.3%降至25.0%。财务杠杆回落，但偿付能力微降。四季度标普500非金融整体净杠杆率（净债务/净资产）从三季度的73%降至72%，继续改善，但非金融企业整体利息备付率从三季度的9.97微降至9.42。分行业看，公用事业、房地产、可选消费净杠杆率偏高，信息技术、能源等相对偏低，有息负债/EBITDA亦是如此。在手现金回落、发债规模放缓。四季度标普500非金融板块在手现金占总资产比例4.9%，基本持平于三季度。能源板块抬升明显，从三季度的6.3%抬升至四季度12.4%；信息科技、通讯服务、可选消费较三季度略有回落，但仍达7%~10%。绝对规模看，四季度标普500非金融在手现金降至1.95万亿美元，其中信息科技、可选消费、通讯服务占比最高。与此同时，2021年四季度美国企业信用债发行规模3047亿美元，略低于三季度的3292亿美元。零售库存快速回补，未来或逐步进入主动去库存阶段。零售端库存自2021年四季度以来快速回补，相比之下，批发商和生产商库存则更为充足，甚至处于高位，部分体现渠道的不畅和生产端开工的时滞。零售端库销比自2021年四季度以来同样快速回补也验证了这一结论。往后看，我们预计渠道缓解进一步将推动终端库存回补、同时产能利用率修复消化生产商库存。如果后续没有新的增长动力（如资本开支），将逐步进入主动去库存阶段。资本开支规模及增速较三季度均有所回落。四季度标普500非金融Capex同比增速较三季度回落至15.6%（三季度19.7%）。分板块看，企业在手现金充裕的板块Capex同比增速较三季度抬升显著，如能源和信息科技，但房地产、可选消费、医疗保健回落明显。绝对规模看，四季度Capex较三季度略有回落，四季度非金融板块1738亿美元的Capex中，零售、媒体、电信服务、半导体、公用事业合计占比约50%4、前景展望：盈利趋缓是大方向，但谈衰退尚早；上行风险来自资本开支，下行风险为通胀和紧缩加速估值大概率继续收缩，盈利是美股当前的主要依靠。年初以来美股回调均由估值收缩所致（标普500指数年初以来下跌6.4%，估值收缩10.2%，盈利贡献4.3%；疫情以来，2019年底至今，标普500指数上涨38.1%，其中估值扩张5.2%，盈利贡献31.3%）。当前标普500指数动态估值为19.2倍，处于1990年以来82.4%分位数，且基本位于2020年3月疫情爆发前水平；静态P/E（21.1倍）基本位于增长条件（2月ISM制造业PMI 58.6）和流动性（当前10年美债利率 2.15%）能够支撑的合理水平（~21.3倍），但在当前美联储已经加息并将于5月启动缩表的背景下，估值大概率维持收缩态势。因此，盈利的好坏或将是美股走势的关键。单纯货币政策但并非判断市场走向的关键，尤其是在加息和收紧初期，更关键的是一个清晰而稳定的路径。盈利的确面临增长趋缓和成本抬升的压力，但谈衰退可能尚早。相比去年的高基数和刺激集中发力，需求整体放缓原本也是趋势使然，再加上通胀和成本压力尚未完全缓解，因此增长整体处于趋缓方向。不过盈利增速的放缓和衰退还是有很大区别，增速的放缓也不完全意味着市场的下跌。在疫情逐步改善、库存修复、渠道阻塞逐步缓解的背景下，我们预计美国整体增长虽然无法加速但仍能维持一个相对稳健的增长。近期2s10s临近倒挂引发衰退担忧，但我们认为可能有些失真。更重要的是，除了政府部门外，美国金融、企业和居民部门的杠杆水平整体偏低，因此不面临大规模的去杠杆风险。当前，市场一致预期预计美股2022年全年盈利增长9.1%（vs. 2021年50.3%）。下行风险来自俄乌局势或者其他意料之外的供应冲击进一步放大并持续更长时间，使得远端通胀路径走高并延长、迫使货币政策大幅收紧，这将会给整体增长和市场带来更大压力。在没有俄乌事件影响下，表观通胀可能在高基数和疫情改善作用下3月后逐步回落。俄乌局势导致的大宗商品价格上冲已经将推后通胀高点的到来（我们测算延后1个月左右），但依然还是回落的。如果再度升级，市场就需要重新修正「远端」加息预期，进而使得利率有上行风险（我们测算长端国债摸高2.3~2.4%），进而压制盈利和风险偏好上行风险来自企业资本开支开启。如果开启将不仅提供新的增长动力，也能为当前过剩流动性提供「出路」，通过增长化解成本压力。当前美国企业有能力也有需求，但产能和库存条件尚不具备，我们预计验证点在二季度左右。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":476732408144704,"gmtCreate":1757396180835,"gmtModify":1757396184293,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a 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Materials Inc.(MMAT)$ &nbsp;</a>","text":"$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923757766","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":475198024462488,"gmtCreate":1757038724282,"gmtModify":1757038726522,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00697\">$首程控股(00697)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00697\">$首程控股(00697)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$首程控股(00697)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f62c156d07019306d5e7552cfe4653c6","width":"1010","height":"1808"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/475198024462488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080042070,"gmtCreate":1649823677040,"gmtModify":1676534584683,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080042070","repostId":"2227566789","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017340136,"gmtCreate":1649750321351,"gmtModify":1676534564217,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017340136","repostId":"2226655257","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2226655257","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649750092,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2226655257?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-12 15:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Nvidia is bearish: Chinese players don't buy it, and the price of graphics cards has to fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2226655257","media":"快科技","summary":"近期消费级GPU的订单开始取消，原因与多种因素有关。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>NVIDIA's share price plunged 5% last night because it was bearish by analysts. Tristan Gerra, an analyst at Baird, an American investment bank and financial services company, downgraded his stock score to neutral. The root cause behind this is that there is too much inventory of graphics card chips, and the price will continue to fall.</p><p>According to Tristan Gerra's report, orders for consumer GPUs have started to cancel recently, and the reasons are related to a variety of factors, including excess inventory, slowing demand, declining demand for computers, and more.</p><p><b>In addition to</b>Two factors have a great impact, one is Russia's embargo measures, and the other is the sharp drop in demand in the Chinese market. The domestic market accounts for 25% to 30% of the consumer GPU chip market, which has a great impact.</p><p>According to analysts' statements, in addition to the decline in overall market demand, an important reason affecting the price of graphics cards at present is the demand of consumers in the domestic market.<b>In the current situation, players don't buy it, and the price of graphics cards will continue to fall.</b></p><p>This will also affect NVIDIA's performance in the next quarter. As of July this year, the revenue may only increase slightly in Q2 fiscal quarter, and there will be a median decline in Q3 quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d0bbf0010bcf779745b72f8552ddeb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"kkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia is bearish: Chinese players don't buy it, and the price of graphics cards has to fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia is bearish: Chinese players don't buy it, and the price of graphics cards has to fall\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">快科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-12 15:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>NVIDIA's share price plunged 5% last night because it was bearish by analysts. Tristan Gerra, an analyst at Baird, an American investment bank and financial services company, downgraded his stock score to neutral. The root cause behind this is that there is too much inventory of graphics card chips, and the price will continue to fall.</p><p>According to Tristan Gerra's report, orders for consumer GPUs have started to cancel recently, and the reasons are related to a variety of factors, including excess inventory, slowing demand, declining demand for computers, and more.</p><p><b>In addition to</b>Two factors have a great impact, one is Russia's embargo measures, and the other is the sharp drop in demand in the Chinese market. The domestic market accounts for 25% to 30% of the consumer GPU chip market, which has a great impact.</p><p>According to analysts' statements, in addition to the decline in overall market demand, an important reason affecting the price of graphics cards at present is the demand of consumers in the domestic market.<b>In the current situation, players don't buy it, and the price of graphics cards will continue to fall.</b></p><p>This will also affect NVIDIA's performance in the next quarter. As of July this year, the revenue may only increase slightly in Q2 fiscal quarter, and there will be a median decline in Q3 quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d0bbf0010bcf779745b72f8552ddeb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2022041214441279ae9c3f&s=b\">快科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7308276753c5ff6ceaac8e2cceebffd3","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2022041214441279ae9c3f&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2226655257","content_text":"NVIDIA公司股价昨晚重挫5%，原因是被分析师看衰，美国投资银行与金融服务公司贝雅(Baird)的分析师杰拉(Tristan Gerra)将其股票评分下调到中立，背后的根源则是显卡芯片库存过多，价格还会继续下跌。根据Tristan Gerra的报告，近期消费级GPU的订单开始取消，原因与多种因素有关，包括库存过剩、需求放缓、电脑需求下降等等。此外还有2个因素影响很大，一个是俄罗斯的禁运措施，另一个则是中国市场的需求大降，国内市场占了消费类GPU芯片市场的25%到30%份额，影响非常大。从分析师的表态来看，除了整体市场需求下滑的因素之外，目前影响显卡价格的一个重要原因就是国内市场消费者的需求了，在当前局面下玩家不太买账，显卡价格还要继续跌了。这也会导致NVIDIA接下来的季度中业绩受到影响，截止今年7月份的Q2财季中营收可能只会有微幅增长，Q3季度则会出现中位数的下滑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035847630,"gmtCreate":1647569489331,"gmtModify":1676534245918,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035847630","repostId":"2220717739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220717739","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647559535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220717739?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-18 07:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Microsoft suffered antitrust complaints in the European Union: cloud computing business was accused of undermining market competition","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220717739","media":"新浪科技","summary":"新浪科技讯 北京时间3月17日晚间消息，据报道，微软云计算业务遭到了欧洲三家竞争对手的投诉，称微软破坏了云计算服务市场的公平竞争，限制了消费者的选择。这些竞争对手称，微软的合同和商业行为，使得其云计算服务的成本高昂。法国云计算服务提供商OVHCloud在一份声明中证实，该公司正是投诉方之一。此外，OVHCloud的发言人拒绝透露另外两名欧洲原告公司的名称。对此，欧盟委员会证实，已接到相关投诉。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>News Beijing time on the evening of March 17th, according to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The cloud computing business has faced complaints from three European rivals that Microsoft has undermined fair competition in the cloud computing services market and limited consumer choices.</p><p>The rivals say Microsoft's contracts and business practices make its cloud computing services expensive. But at the same time, it also makes it difficult for its cloud computing service users to choose alternative services from competitors.</p><p>French cloud computing service provider OVHCloud confirmed in a statement that it was one of the parties to the complaint. Additionally, a spokesperson for OVHCloud declined to name the two other European plaintiff companies.</p><p>\"By abusing its dominant position, Microsoft undermines fair competition in the cloud computing services market and limits consumer choice,\" OVHCloud said.</p><p>In response, the European Commission confirmed that it had received relevant complaints.</p><p>In response, a Microsoft spokesman said in an email statement: \"We have been evaluating how we can better support our partners and make our software suitable for customers in all environments, including customers of other cloud service providers.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft suffered antitrust complaints in the European Union: cloud computing business was accused of undermining market competition</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft suffered antitrust complaints in the European Union: cloud computing business was accused of undermining market competition\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-18 07:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>News Beijing time on the evening of March 17th, according to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The cloud computing business has faced complaints from three European rivals that Microsoft has undermined fair competition in the cloud computing services market and limited consumer choices.</p><p>The rivals say Microsoft's contracts and business practices make its cloud computing services expensive. But at the same time, it also makes it difficult for its cloud computing service users to choose alternative services from competitors.</p><p>French cloud computing service provider OVHCloud confirmed in a statement that it was one of the parties to the complaint. Additionally, a spokesperson for OVHCloud declined to name the two other European plaintiff companies.</p><p>\"By abusing its dominant position, Microsoft undermines fair competition in the cloud computing services market and limits consumer choice,\" OVHCloud said.</p><p>In response, the European Commission confirmed that it had received relevant complaints.</p><p>In response, a Microsoft spokesman said in an email statement: \"We have been evaluating how we can better support our partners and make our software suitable for customers in all environments, including customers of other cloud service providers.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-03-17/detail-imcwipih9090181.d.html?vt=4\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ffcdd31788185eb3014b82161a8fbc","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4538":"云计算","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-03-17/detail-imcwipih9090181.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2220717739","content_text":"新浪科技讯 北京时间3月17日晚间消息，据报道，微软云计算业务遭到了欧洲三家竞争对手的投诉，称微软破坏了云计算服务市场的公平竞争，限制了消费者的选择。这些竞争对手称，微软的合同和商业行为，使得其云计算服务的成本高昂。但同时，也让其云计算服务用户很难选择竞争对手的替代服务。法国云计算服务提供商OVHCloud在一份声明中证实，该公司正是投诉方之一。此外，OVHCloud的发言人拒绝透露另外两名欧洲原告公司的名称。OVHCloud称：“通过滥用其主导地位，微软破坏了云计算服务市场的公平竞争，限制了消费者的选择。”对此，欧盟委员会证实，已接到相关投诉。对此，微软一位发言人在一封电子邮件声明中称：“我们一直在评估，如何才能更好地支持合作伙伴，让我们的软件适用于所有环境下的客户，包括其他云服务提供商的客户。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035847136,"gmtCreate":1647569456846,"gmtModify":1676534245912,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035847136","repostId":"2220474040","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}