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2023-04-20

$First Republic Bank(FRC)$

2022-12-19

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2022-12-19

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2022-12-13

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2022-12-13

$台积电(TSM)$

2022-12-08

tiger trade is a good platform

2022-12-06

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2022-12-06

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李小加又创立一家交易所！这一次是在澳门

2022-11-29

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融创中国：预期本年度本公司拥有人应占溢利较去年下降约207%

2022-11-29

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2022-11-29

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2022-11-26

$爱德华兹(EW)$

2022-11-23

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2022-11-22

$Edwards Lifesciences(EW)$

2022-11-21

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2022-11-21

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SPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish

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07:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"李小加又创立一家交易所！这一次是在澳门","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2289684192","media":"证券时报","summary":"5日，根据澳门特别行政区政府办公室行政令公布，滴灌通获准在澳门设立金融资产交易所，滴灌通由香港交易所前行政总裁李小加创立，他表示：“我们将建设创新的金融资产交易平台，打造一个更具包容性的、可持续的新金融市场。交易所是其中非常重要的一环。交易所能够更好地服务于国际资本，更有效地发现资产价值和价格，更有效地提高资金的使用效率，为投资者提供投资机会和流动性。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5日，根据澳门特别行政区政府办公室行政令公布，滴灌通获准在澳门设立金融资产交易所，滴灌通由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">香港交易所</a>前行政总裁李小加创立，他表示：“我们将建设创新的金融资产交易平台，打造一个更具包容性的、可持续的新金融市场。交易所是其中非常重要的一环。交易所能够更好地服务于国际资本，更有效地发现资产价值和价格，更有效地提高资金的使用效率，为投资者提供投资机会和流动性。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4191c09f17fa1fccc95799e2797e37d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>截图来源：澳门特别行政区印务局</p><p>李小加在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，审批完成很快就会进入交易所的开业准备阶段，包括从会员的纳入开始，以及所有的规则整合、产品上架等方面，并希望在2023年第一季度末正式开业，为全球投资者开拓全新的投资中国实体经济渠道。</p><p>截至2022年11月30日，滴灌通已经签约连锁品牌170多家，签约实体门店近1800家，覆盖零售、餐饮、服务、文体四大领域，遍布中国31个省份140多个城市。</p><p>为什么选择在澳门？</p><p>李小加在接受采访时透露，从今年两会之后都在和澳门的监管机构密切沟通，并且滴灌通这样的新型交易模式受到了当地监管机构的认可和支持。选择在澳门设立金融资产交易所的考虑因素有以下两方面：首先，澳门是一个非常开放的国际市场，资金可以自由流动，从整个粤港澳大湾区和国家的金融格局来说非常重要，在金融支持实体经济、支持小微特色创新领域里边有巨大的发展契机。其次，滴灌通的交易模式是完全创新的，和传统金融相比有较大的变化，这种新型的创新交易模式适合在一个新的、没有很多过往传统金融路径依赖的市场环境，澳门在这方面非常有创新，也很欢迎。</p><p>为什么做交易所？</p><p>李小加介绍，滴灌通集团定位是新型金融平台，让全球投资者能够以交易所可交易的产品形式（每日收入分成合约凭证，Daily Revenue Contract Certificates，DRCCs），参与投资滴灌通模式为小微企业专设的每日收入分成权益，获得小微企业的收益回报。交易所将为国际资本提供一个全新的蓝海投资机会，提供一个高效的交易市场，进而为中国的小微经济发展，持续引入国际资本。为中国的经济的双循环战略，贡献力量。后续阶段，交易所会探索提供其他权益类金融资产的交易及相关服务。</p><p>他强调，由于滴灌通投资的是中国的小微实体企业，其底层资产投资金额小、数量大、高度分散、高度透明，而这些投资均由海量、精细、实时的数据驱动，使投资质量得以保障。为了解决资金端投资者在二级市场的需求、流动性、价格发现、清算结算，建立自己不同投资组合的需求，需要做一个完全符合这种新型资产类别的新型交易所。在运营初期，滴灌通交易所更类似于传统的非标交易所，但规模更庞大，产品也更丰富和标准，交易处理和服务更自动化。</p><p>举例而言，有的投资者只愿意选择我们投资组合中餐饮或者零售企业中的一部分，投资者的风险偏好不同，有的只愿意做比较短期的、收益不需要特别高的投资，比如只买投资组合中前6个月的现金流来维持固定收益，更高回报的可以留给后面劣后的投资人，还有一些投资人更多考虑做影响力投资，比如希望支持中国小微企业中有雇佣残疾人的企业可以在其回报中有一定抵扣。</p><p>所有这些投资者个性化的需求，通过滴灌通的交易所可以给投资者以各种组合的可能性，在交易端、持有时间等各个维度形成具有个性化的组合搭配，并通过交易体系和清算结算体系使得投资者能重新组合。</p><p>交易所的流动性和规模如何？</p><p>李小加解释，传统交易所的流动性往往就是指交易的频繁性，大部分也靠二级市场的换手率来赚钱，滴灌通设立的金融资产交易所是一个完全新型的交易方式，就是要改变这种模式。在他看来，投资回归本质都属于一个价值，是个DCF，并非跟二级市场创造出来的这种流动性相关，所以换手率不是衡量的指标。</p><p>他认为，这种新型交易所的流动性是指，滴灌通的交易所能支持强大的、独特性的需求，在投资可能有偏好的需求方向，由于交易所市场丰富且提供的服务精准，就算是很窄的领域也有流动性。举例来说，在东南亚的伊斯兰投资者，他们想投资中国的餐馆，但是大部分中国人开的餐馆都是有猪肉提供的，可是这个投资市场的需求是存在的，如果滴灌通的交易所针对某一种特定的投资组合，如提供投资中国清真的餐厅组合，就算是一个小众的市场，有足够的流动性，也会有投资人愿意购买，不用付特别高的溢价就能完成。所以参与这个新型交易所投资者交易的动力为：是不是要持有这个组合，而并非频繁地买卖。</p><p>此外，他还强调，滴灌通的交易所也不会有大量的散户参加，同样每天也不会产生大量的交易，但是有非常独特的各种各样组合形式。如果把整个交易市场比喻成一个大超市，定价体系不是靠市场参与者反复去交易某一个标准化的产品产生出来的价格，而是通过每天非常精准的收益、基于精算出来的每一个小产品的单价，基于此形成的投资组合价格，公平合理且可以作为参考基础。</p><p>而谈到未来交易所的市场规模，李小加则认为，随着滴灌通投资的小微企业数量越来越多，未来全市场如果能够做到千万家的小微企业，估算就会有十万亿人民币的市场规模，这个市场的潜力是非常巨大的。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李小加又创立一家交易所！这一次是在澳门\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-06 07:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2022-12-06/doc-imqmmthc7162132.shtml><strong>证券时报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5日，根据澳门特别行政区政府办公室行政令公布，滴灌通获准在澳门设立金融资产交易所，滴灌通由香港交易所前行政总裁李小加创立，他表示：“我们将建设创新的金融资产交易平台，打造一个更具包容性的、可持续的新金融市场。交易所是其中非常重要的一环。交易所能够更好地服务于国际资本，更有效地发现资产价值和价格，更有效地提高资金的使用效率，为投资者提供投资机会和流动性。”截图来源：澳门特别行政区印务局李小加在接受...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2022-12-06/doc-imqmmthc7162132.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b8b471675f9ec55b05ea71aa531bc38","relate_stocks":{"LU0577902538.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Growth and Income Equities A Acc SGD","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc SGD","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0577902454.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA GROWTH & INCOME EQUITIE \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) 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SGD"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2022-12-06/doc-imqmmthc7162132.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2289684192","content_text":"5日，根据澳门特别行政区政府办公室行政令公布，滴灌通获准在澳门设立金融资产交易所，滴灌通由香港交易所前行政总裁李小加创立，他表示：“我们将建设创新的金融资产交易平台，打造一个更具包容性的、可持续的新金融市场。交易所是其中非常重要的一环。交易所能够更好地服务于国际资本，更有效地发现资产价值和价格，更有效地提高资金的使用效率，为投资者提供投资机会和流动性。”截图来源：澳门特别行政区印务局李小加在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，审批完成很快就会进入交易所的开业准备阶段，包括从会员的纳入开始，以及所有的规则整合、产品上架等方面，并希望在2023年第一季度末正式开业，为全球投资者开拓全新的投资中国实体经济渠道。截至2022年11月30日，滴灌通已经签约连锁品牌170多家，签约实体门店近1800家，覆盖零售、餐饮、服务、文体四大领域，遍布中国31个省份140多个城市。为什么选择在澳门？李小加在接受采访时透露，从今年两会之后都在和澳门的监管机构密切沟通，并且滴灌通这样的新型交易模式受到了当地监管机构的认可和支持。选择在澳门设立金融资产交易所的考虑因素有以下两方面：首先，澳门是一个非常开放的国际市场，资金可以自由流动，从整个粤港澳大湾区和国家的金融格局来说非常重要，在金融支持实体经济、支持小微特色创新领域里边有巨大的发展契机。其次，滴灌通的交易模式是完全创新的，和传统金融相比有较大的变化，这种新型的创新交易模式适合在一个新的、没有很多过往传统金融路径依赖的市场环境，澳门在这方面非常有创新，也很欢迎。为什么做交易所？李小加介绍，滴灌通集团定位是新型金融平台，让全球投资者能够以交易所可交易的产品形式（每日收入分成合约凭证，Daily Revenue Contract Certificates，DRCCs），参与投资滴灌通模式为小微企业专设的每日收入分成权益，获得小微企业的收益回报。交易所将为国际资本提供一个全新的蓝海投资机会，提供一个高效的交易市场，进而为中国的小微经济发展，持续引入国际资本。为中国的经济的双循环战略，贡献力量。后续阶段，交易所会探索提供其他权益类金融资产的交易及相关服务。他强调，由于滴灌通投资的是中国的小微实体企业，其底层资产投资金额小、数量大、高度分散、高度透明，而这些投资均由海量、精细、实时的数据驱动，使投资质量得以保障。为了解决资金端投资者在二级市场的需求、流动性、价格发现、清算结算，建立自己不同投资组合的需求，需要做一个完全符合这种新型资产类别的新型交易所。在运营初期，滴灌通交易所更类似于传统的非标交易所，但规模更庞大，产品也更丰富和标准，交易处理和服务更自动化。举例而言，有的投资者只愿意选择我们投资组合中餐饮或者零售企业中的一部分，投资者的风险偏好不同，有的只愿意做比较短期的、收益不需要特别高的投资，比如只买投资组合中前6个月的现金流来维持固定收益，更高回报的可以留给后面劣后的投资人，还有一些投资人更多考虑做影响力投资，比如希望支持中国小微企业中有雇佣残疾人的企业可以在其回报中有一定抵扣。所有这些投资者个性化的需求，通过滴灌通的交易所可以给投资者以各种组合的可能性，在交易端、持有时间等各个维度形成具有个性化的组合搭配，并通过交易体系和清算结算体系使得投资者能重新组合。交易所的流动性和规模如何？李小加解释，传统交易所的流动性往往就是指交易的频繁性，大部分也靠二级市场的换手率来赚钱，滴灌通设立的金融资产交易所是一个完全新型的交易方式，就是要改变这种模式。在他看来，投资回归本质都属于一个价值，是个DCF，并非跟二级市场创造出来的这种流动性相关，所以换手率不是衡量的指标。他认为，这种新型交易所的流动性是指，滴灌通的交易所能支持强大的、独特性的需求，在投资可能有偏好的需求方向，由于交易所市场丰富且提供的服务精准，就算是很窄的领域也有流动性。举例来说，在东南亚的伊斯兰投资者，他们想投资中国的餐馆，但是大部分中国人开的餐馆都是有猪肉提供的，可是这个投资市场的需求是存在的，如果滴灌通的交易所针对某一种特定的投资组合，如提供投资中国清真的餐厅组合，就算是一个小众的市场，有足够的流动性，也会有投资人愿意购买，不用付特别高的溢价就能完成。所以参与这个新型交易所投资者交易的动力为：是不是要持有这个组合，而并非频繁地买卖。此外，他还强调，滴灌通的交易所也不会有大量的散户参加，同样每天也不会产生大量的交易，但是有非常独特的各种各样组合形式。如果把整个交易市场比喻成一个大超市，定价体系不是靠市场参与者反复去交易某一个标准化的产品产生出来的价格，而是通过每天非常精准的收益、基于精算出来的每一个小产品的单价，基于此形成的投资组合价格，公平合理且可以作为参考基础。而谈到未来交易所的市场规模，李小加则认为，随着滴灌通投资的小微企业数量越来越多，未来全市场如果能够做到千万家的小微企业，估算就会有十万亿人民币的市场规模，这个市场的潜力是非常巨大的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962333476,"gmtCreate":1669720005096,"gmtModify":1676538228418,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093819766986720","authorIdStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962333476","repostId":"1128001713","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128001713","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1669717847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128001713?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-29 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">融创中国</a>：预期本年度本公司拥有人应占溢利较去年下降约207%，核心净利润较去年下降约184%。公司股份将继续暂停买卖，直至另行通知为止。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975837d6a35fb297b3cd40e78765c9df\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"589\" 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16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284891180","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has som","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Stocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.</li><li>I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.</li><li>The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for stocks.</li><li>In 2023, bad news will be bad news again, and a rallying stock market is bearish.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fe2c4feaba1c36352e0d9664de24f3\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>blewisphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><h2>“Hopium” is back again</h2><p>It doesn’t take much for investors to be optimistic about the markets again. Last week the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) rallied ~6%, and the Nasdaq ~8% after the inflation print came in lower than expected at 7.7% YoY or 0.4% MoM. The PPI data should come in lower too, reflecting the symptoms of a slowing economy and weakening consumer spending.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8830de04b6cb31c02f372c43e213054\" tg-width=\"1275\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>CPI &amp; PPI YoY Percentage Change (Author Excel with Data from fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>So far, so unsurprising – not for the market, though. The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq made the bulk of their gains last week right after the CPI report was published. Markets played the pivot book: The Dollar (DXY) withdrew sharply as Yields collapsed, and assets appreciated. The market priced in a higher probability of relative monetary easing of the Federal Reserve due to lower-than-expected inflation. Naturally, the most interest-rate sensitive assets appreciated the most, hence the outperformance of the Nasdaq. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose over 10% on that day. Although that gain has to be taken with a caveat because the CPI print followed the day that FTX went bankrupt and Crypto assets collapsed. Therefore, a rebound seemed natural.</p><p>On Thursday, the Nasdaq (NDX) had its best trading day since April 2020. I don’t believe a new bull market has started, however. Huge upswings and short squeezes are characteristic of bear market rallies. The underlying macroeconomic circumstances have not changed enough to put an end to this bear market. I believe this rally is one of the bigger ones, like the bear market rally starting in June 2022. I believe the market can feed off of big short exposure and the narrative that inflation has finally peaked.</p><p>I also believe inflation has peaked, as I cannot imagine that the economy will be able to healthily operate with the immense burden of the sharply risen cost of capital. The previously raised interest rates start to feed into the economy gradually. As Jerome Powell always reminds us: “Monetary Policy works with long and variable lags.” That counts for monetary easing and monetary tightening. Additionally, the basis effect should help keep the YoY inflation rate comparatively low.</p><p>The financial stress that the economy will have to endure during the first half of 2023 seems too high to be bullish at the current valuation level. While analysts have lowered their expectations for 2023 earnings, they are still around ~$220 for the S&amp;P 500 (0% growth), which currently reflects a P/E FWD of 18x. Given the macroeconomic and geopolitical circumstances I believe that is still way too high.</p><p>In the event of a recession, which is my base case, earnings should fall and not only stay flat for 2023. Assuming the earnings multiple for the S&amp;P 500 goes back to its mean of 16x and earnings depreciate by 10% in 2023 (basically guaranteed if a real recession hits), the fair value of the S&amp;P should be around 3,200 points. Of course, the P/E FWD ratio estimate is only for constructing a framework about where the fair value<i>should</i> be. There are many more factors at play.</p><p>After all, the alternative to equities is an investment in basically risk-free US government bonds, which now have moved into the positive real-rate territory across the yield curve. During the last 20 years, expansive monetary policy has moved even the most risk-averse investors into the equity space. Now that risk-free rates have risen, these risk-averse players are attracted by the risk-free yield, especially when compared to equity premiums. This is why I believe that the current drawdown in equities only accounts for the yield rise and not for earnings depreciation. I make the speculation of largely not being invested while waiting until the other shoe drops, most likely in H1/2023.</p><h2>Searching for historical bottoms</h2><p>Usually, the market is forward-looking and doesn’t reflect the economy. However, historically trying to front-run the pivot didn’t work:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8447327903f174e95c5886662c788efe\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Fed Funds &amp; SP500 (Excel from Author using data from fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>That’s because of the circumstances of the previous pivot points.</p><p>When the Federal Reserve raised rates during the 2000’s it was because the economy was overheating, and the labor market was tight. While rates were rising, the stock market appreciated because of strong fundamentals (rising GDP). After some time, the monetary tightening worked itself into the economy, and the market fundamentals started to worsen. After a period of plateauing rates, the stock market tumbled, and the Federal Reserve was quick to cut rates. While the Federal Reserve was cutting rates the stock market fell even further. Historically, the bottom of the stock market was in only<i>after</i> the Federal Reserve had already cut rates significantly and the liquidity cycle started to move upwards again.</p><p>In 2022, however, we have a different situation. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy, and the stock market depreciated <i>because of it</i>. That fundamental difference exists because of inflation.</p><p>During the last 40 years, the overarching trend of inflation was down. Especially in the last 20 years, global Central Banks struggled to create inflation with loose monetary policy. If the economy and the financial markets start to struggle while there is no concern about material inflation or even fear of deflation, then the playbook of Central Banks becomes very easy: stimulate the economy to raise inflation and decrease unemployment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93089c2daa2b2a46fe64342b4a9c84db\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Taylor-Rule (Author)</span></p><p>According to the Taylor Rule, the Federal Reserve had to lower interest rates (1-h) so often in the past because inflation was below the long-term inflation rate goal,<i>and</i> (1-g) GDP was also below the long-term production potential. Both parts of the formula demanded monetary easing.</p><p>During 2020-2022 the macroeconomic circumstances changed 180 degrees. Because of several shortages, and most importantly massive fiscal stimulus, which was fully financed by expansive monetary policy, demand exploded while goods were scarce. After inflation came in hot quarter after quarter, the Federal Reserve had to raise rates into a falling stock market for the first time in 20+ years.</p><p>Because of the traditionally backward-looking indicators of Central Banks (i.e. unemployment), the economy appeared red hot while inflation was clearly above the 2% target. These two macroeconomic circumstances basically guaranteed monetary tightening. A falling stock market is appreciated by the Federal Reserve because it resembles tightening financial conditions. Tightening financial conditions should decrease inflation and raise unemployment – the goals of the central bank policy during times like these.</p><h2>Trying to time the pivot?</h2><p>We are in a different situation now, though. Inflation is still way above the 2% target. But the slowdown of the global economy is getting more and more clear by the day. And many of the bubbles fueled by monetary excesses [i.e. Meme-Tech-stocks like Peleton (PTON), Palantir (PLTR), Nikola (NKLA), or Crypto (BTC) / (ETH)] have deflated 80-90% from their highs.</p><p>Many investors ask themselves now: If inflation has peaked and the economy is materially slowing down, why not buy the dip in risk assets? Won’t the Fed Put be back after inflation comes down MoM?</p><p>That sounds like an attractive argument. Hence, I believe the current rally could sustain for the remainder of 2022. There are finally positive news for the stock market to rally. Ultimately, however, I believe the current stock price action is nothing more than a rather violent bear market rally because of the following reasons:</p><h3>1. The Federal Reserve wants to make sure that inflation is dealt with</h3><p>During the speculation mania that followed the March 2020 Covid crash, any doubt about valuation levels was quickly dismissed with the “don’t fight the Fed” mantra. And speculators were right back then. If the liquidity cycle makes a big upswing, you don’t want to be caught off guard shorting stocks because of their stretched valuations. Tesla (TSLA) perma bears painfully had to learn that. But the same counts for when the liquidity cycle is in a downturn and investors are recklessly holding on to their overvalued tech stocks. Fighting the Fed in 2022 means staying invested in long-duration, high-growth, high-valuation equities. Just last week, Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s stance to tighten policy until something breaks. Powell seemed confident that it would be easier to put the economy into recession and then rescue it after they overtighten financial conditions. After all, nothing kills inflation like a recession.</p><h3>2. Unemployment is too low</h3><p>Without the labor market breaking and unemployment sharply rising, there is no reason for global Central Banks to meaningfully change the direction of their policy to an accommodative level. During the FOMC meeting, Powell made it clear that rates will likely stay higher for longer than the market currently expects. The Federal Reserve has given up on its attempt of engineering a “softish landing”. Inflation becoming entrenched in the economy is their worst fear, and with the low levels of unemployment, the Central Bank doesn’t have to balance its efforts to slow down inflation. Even after the rate hikes are over, quantitative tightening will worsen financial conditions and be a great hurdle for the stock market.</p><p>Some layoffs have already started. To my belief, tech companies will be able to raise productivity by removing some unnecessary workforce from recent years, where revenue growth was highly monetarily valued, but profitability wasn’t. Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Twitter (TWTR) have already started. Alphabet (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) are likely to follow. If high-paid workers lose their steady income stream, they are likely to sell off some of their accumulated assets in order to have a safety cushion to rely upon. It would be typical that this selling coincides with retail capitulation and a final rise in volatility, which usually marks the low of the bear market. I don’t believe we’re at the end yet, but I don’t want to dismiss the rather orderly decline of stock prices in 2022.</p><h3>3. Bad news will be bad news again</h3><p>I think 2023 will be about the labor market and the effects of higher rates for the housing market and less about the Federal Reserve monetary policy. After all, the bulk of the rate hikes are done, and now it is about how long they can stay this elevated. That’s not as interesting for the stock market as hiking 50-75 basis points per month, at least in terms of forward pricing. As seen last week, the current market is still heavily focused on inflation and the resulting change of the Federal Reserve policy. That’s why bad news about an economic slowdown were bullish. Inflation expectations would decrease, and as a function of that, the Federal Reserve was expected to be less tight.</p><p>I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to immediately cut rates if the labor market eases. Because of that consistency and resilience to lower rates, I think that bad news will be bad news again in 2023. The housing market should come under pressure too, as more and more mortgages have to be refinanced. As of now, the illiquidity of the housing market makes it seem somewhat resilient. But I don’t believe that resiliency will hold in 2023 if rates stay elevated.</p><p>Hiking interest rates for fewer percentage points is less bearish but still not bullish, given how elevated rates already are. The liquidity cycle is still in a downturn, albeit less quickly, and Quantitative Tightening still continues linearly. Until now, much of the Quantitative Tightening got neutralized by a rundown of the US Treasury General account:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ecc783a2e50ff641e9c70d6bfcb9101\" tg-width=\"1169\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>M2 &amp; US Treasury General Account (fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>In 2023, the softening impact of decreasing the treasury account in line with Quantitative Easing will still be possible for some time, but not forever. The likelihood of excessive fiscal policy stimulating the economy has decreased too, given the results of the US midterm elections.</p><h3>4. A stock-market rally is bearish</h3><p>Something has to break for the Fed to pivot. If the market reaches previous highs, it only increases the probability that Central banks tighten monetary policy even further. That’s because financial conditions usually ease during stock market rallies. Bond yields usually fall because the market expects accommodative monetary policy, which makes it possible for the Federal Reserve to conduct more Quantitative Tightening because investors buy them, trying to front-run a pivot. To me that seems self-defeating.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I believe that in 2023, bad news will be bad news again. Plunging earnings and layoffs will ultimately be bearish for the stock market. The Federal Reserve can only pivot if something breaks. The process of “breaking” usually isn’t bullish for the stock market. Bear markets often end with capitulation, but long-only ETF DCA retail still makes their monthly investments in the S&amp;P 500. Unemployment has to rise to turn these inflows into outflows. Bad news will be bad news, and a rallying stock market will be bearish.</p><p><i>This article is written by Nikolai Galozi for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 16:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284891180","content_text":"SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for stocks.In 2023, bad news will be bad news again, and a rallying stock market is bearish.blewisphotography/iStock via Getty Images“Hopium” is back againIt doesn’t take much for investors to be optimistic about the markets again. Last week the S&P 500 (SPX) rallied ~6%, and the Nasdaq ~8% after the inflation print came in lower than expected at 7.7% YoY or 0.4% MoM. The PPI data should come in lower too, reflecting the symptoms of a slowing economy and weakening consumer spending.CPI & PPI YoY Percentage Change (Author Excel with Data from fred.stlouisfed.org)So far, so unsurprising – not for the market, though. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq made the bulk of their gains last week right after the CPI report was published. Markets played the pivot book: The Dollar (DXY) withdrew sharply as Yields collapsed, and assets appreciated. The market priced in a higher probability of relative monetary easing of the Federal Reserve due to lower-than-expected inflation. Naturally, the most interest-rate sensitive assets appreciated the most, hence the outperformance of the Nasdaq. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose over 10% on that day. Although that gain has to be taken with a caveat because the CPI print followed the day that FTX went bankrupt and Crypto assets collapsed. Therefore, a rebound seemed natural.On Thursday, the Nasdaq (NDX) had its best trading day since April 2020. I don’t believe a new bull market has started, however. Huge upswings and short squeezes are characteristic of bear market rallies. The underlying macroeconomic circumstances have not changed enough to put an end to this bear market. I believe this rally is one of the bigger ones, like the bear market rally starting in June 2022. I believe the market can feed off of big short exposure and the narrative that inflation has finally peaked.I also believe inflation has peaked, as I cannot imagine that the economy will be able to healthily operate with the immense burden of the sharply risen cost of capital. The previously raised interest rates start to feed into the economy gradually. As Jerome Powell always reminds us: “Monetary Policy works with long and variable lags.” That counts for monetary easing and monetary tightening. Additionally, the basis effect should help keep the YoY inflation rate comparatively low.The financial stress that the economy will have to endure during the first half of 2023 seems too high to be bullish at the current valuation level. While analysts have lowered their expectations for 2023 earnings, they are still around ~$220 for the S&P 500 (0% growth), which currently reflects a P/E FWD of 18x. Given the macroeconomic and geopolitical circumstances I believe that is still way too high.In the event of a recession, which is my base case, earnings should fall and not only stay flat for 2023. Assuming the earnings multiple for the S&P 500 goes back to its mean of 16x and earnings depreciate by 10% in 2023 (basically guaranteed if a real recession hits), the fair value of the S&P should be around 3,200 points. Of course, the P/E FWD ratio estimate is only for constructing a framework about where the fair valueshould be. There are many more factors at play.After all, the alternative to equities is an investment in basically risk-free US government bonds, which now have moved into the positive real-rate territory across the yield curve. During the last 20 years, expansive monetary policy has moved even the most risk-averse investors into the equity space. Now that risk-free rates have risen, these risk-averse players are attracted by the risk-free yield, especially when compared to equity premiums. This is why I believe that the current drawdown in equities only accounts for the yield rise and not for earnings depreciation. I make the speculation of largely not being invested while waiting until the other shoe drops, most likely in H1/2023.Searching for historical bottomsUsually, the market is forward-looking and doesn’t reflect the economy. However, historically trying to front-run the pivot didn’t work:Fed Funds & SP500 (Excel from Author using data from fred.stlouisfed.org)That’s because of the circumstances of the previous pivot points.When the Federal Reserve raised rates during the 2000’s it was because the economy was overheating, and the labor market was tight. While rates were rising, the stock market appreciated because of strong fundamentals (rising GDP). After some time, the monetary tightening worked itself into the economy, and the market fundamentals started to worsen. After a period of plateauing rates, the stock market tumbled, and the Federal Reserve was quick to cut rates. While the Federal Reserve was cutting rates the stock market fell even further. Historically, the bottom of the stock market was in onlyafter the Federal Reserve had already cut rates significantly and the liquidity cycle started to move upwards again.In 2022, however, we have a different situation. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy, and the stock market depreciated because of it. That fundamental difference exists because of inflation.During the last 40 years, the overarching trend of inflation was down. Especially in the last 20 years, global Central Banks struggled to create inflation with loose monetary policy. If the economy and the financial markets start to struggle while there is no concern about material inflation or even fear of deflation, then the playbook of Central Banks becomes very easy: stimulate the economy to raise inflation and decrease unemployment.Taylor-Rule (Author)According to the Taylor Rule, the Federal Reserve had to lower interest rates (1-h) so often in the past because inflation was below the long-term inflation rate goal,and (1-g) GDP was also below the long-term production potential. Both parts of the formula demanded monetary easing.During 2020-2022 the macroeconomic circumstances changed 180 degrees. Because of several shortages, and most importantly massive fiscal stimulus, which was fully financed by expansive monetary policy, demand exploded while goods were scarce. After inflation came in hot quarter after quarter, the Federal Reserve had to raise rates into a falling stock market for the first time in 20+ years.Because of the traditionally backward-looking indicators of Central Banks (i.e. unemployment), the economy appeared red hot while inflation was clearly above the 2% target. These two macroeconomic circumstances basically guaranteed monetary tightening. A falling stock market is appreciated by the Federal Reserve because it resembles tightening financial conditions. Tightening financial conditions should decrease inflation and raise unemployment – the goals of the central bank policy during times like these.Trying to time the pivot?We are in a different situation now, though. Inflation is still way above the 2% target. But the slowdown of the global economy is getting more and more clear by the day. And many of the bubbles fueled by monetary excesses [i.e. Meme-Tech-stocks like Peleton (PTON), Palantir (PLTR), Nikola (NKLA), or Crypto (BTC) / (ETH)] have deflated 80-90% from their highs.Many investors ask themselves now: If inflation has peaked and the economy is materially slowing down, why not buy the dip in risk assets? Won’t the Fed Put be back after inflation comes down MoM?That sounds like an attractive argument. Hence, I believe the current rally could sustain for the remainder of 2022. There are finally positive news for the stock market to rally. Ultimately, however, I believe the current stock price action is nothing more than a rather violent bear market rally because of the following reasons:1. The Federal Reserve wants to make sure that inflation is dealt withDuring the speculation mania that followed the March 2020 Covid crash, any doubt about valuation levels was quickly dismissed with the “don’t fight the Fed” mantra. And speculators were right back then. If the liquidity cycle makes a big upswing, you don’t want to be caught off guard shorting stocks because of their stretched valuations. Tesla (TSLA) perma bears painfully had to learn that. But the same counts for when the liquidity cycle is in a downturn and investors are recklessly holding on to their overvalued tech stocks. Fighting the Fed in 2022 means staying invested in long-duration, high-growth, high-valuation equities. Just last week, Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s stance to tighten policy until something breaks. Powell seemed confident that it would be easier to put the economy into recession and then rescue it after they overtighten financial conditions. After all, nothing kills inflation like a recession.2. Unemployment is too lowWithout the labor market breaking and unemployment sharply rising, there is no reason for global Central Banks to meaningfully change the direction of their policy to an accommodative level. During the FOMC meeting, Powell made it clear that rates will likely stay higher for longer than the market currently expects. The Federal Reserve has given up on its attempt of engineering a “softish landing”. Inflation becoming entrenched in the economy is their worst fear, and with the low levels of unemployment, the Central Bank doesn’t have to balance its efforts to slow down inflation. Even after the rate hikes are over, quantitative tightening will worsen financial conditions and be a great hurdle for the stock market.Some layoffs have already started. To my belief, tech companies will be able to raise productivity by removing some unnecessary workforce from recent years, where revenue growth was highly monetarily valued, but profitability wasn’t. Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Twitter (TWTR) have already started. Alphabet (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) are likely to follow. If high-paid workers lose their steady income stream, they are likely to sell off some of their accumulated assets in order to have a safety cushion to rely upon. It would be typical that this selling coincides with retail capitulation and a final rise in volatility, which usually marks the low of the bear market. I don’t believe we’re at the end yet, but I don’t want to dismiss the rather orderly decline of stock prices in 2022.3. Bad news will be bad news againI think 2023 will be about the labor market and the effects of higher rates for the housing market and less about the Federal Reserve monetary policy. After all, the bulk of the rate hikes are done, and now it is about how long they can stay this elevated. That’s not as interesting for the stock market as hiking 50-75 basis points per month, at least in terms of forward pricing. As seen last week, the current market is still heavily focused on inflation and the resulting change of the Federal Reserve policy. That’s why bad news about an economic slowdown were bullish. Inflation expectations would decrease, and as a function of that, the Federal Reserve was expected to be less tight.I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to immediately cut rates if the labor market eases. Because of that consistency and resilience to lower rates, I think that bad news will be bad news again in 2023. The housing market should come under pressure too, as more and more mortgages have to be refinanced. As of now, the illiquidity of the housing market makes it seem somewhat resilient. But I don’t believe that resiliency will hold in 2023 if rates stay elevated.Hiking interest rates for fewer percentage points is less bearish but still not bullish, given how elevated rates already are. The liquidity cycle is still in a downturn, albeit less quickly, and Quantitative Tightening still continues linearly. Until now, much of the Quantitative Tightening got neutralized by a rundown of the US Treasury General account:M2 & US Treasury General Account (fred.stlouisfed.org)In 2023, the softening impact of decreasing the treasury account in line with Quantitative Easing will still be possible for some time, but not forever. The likelihood of excessive fiscal policy stimulating the economy has decreased too, given the results of the US midterm elections.4. A stock-market rally is bearishSomething has to break for the Fed to pivot. If the market reaches previous highs, it only increases the probability that Central banks tighten monetary policy even further. That’s because financial conditions usually ease during stock market rallies. Bond yields usually fall because the market expects accommodative monetary policy, which makes it possible for the Federal Reserve to conduct more Quantitative Tightening because investors buy them, trying to front-run a pivot. To me that seems self-defeating.SummaryI believe that in 2023, bad news will be bad news again. Plunging earnings and layoffs will ultimately be bearish for the stock market. The Federal Reserve can only pivot if something breaks. The process of “breaking” usually isn’t bullish for the stock market. Bear markets often end with capitulation, but long-only ETF DCA retail still makes their monthly investments in the S&P 500. Unemployment has to rise to turn these inflows into outflows. Bad news will be bad news, and a rallying stock market will be bearish.This article is written by Nikolai Galozi for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":667578215,"gmtCreate":1669039026238,"gmtModify":1676538143040,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/667578215","repostId":"2284891180","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284891180","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669017887,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284891180?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-21 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284891180","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has som","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Stocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.</li><li>I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.</li><li>The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for stocks.</li><li>In 2023, bad news will be bad news again, and a rallying stock market is bearish.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fe2c4feaba1c36352e0d9664de24f3\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>blewisphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><h2>“Hopium” is back again</h2><p>It doesn’t take much for investors to be optimistic about the markets again. Last week the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) rallied ~6%, and the Nasdaq ~8% after the inflation print came in lower than expected at 7.7% YoY or 0.4% MoM. The PPI data should come in lower too, reflecting the symptoms of a slowing economy and weakening consumer spending.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8830de04b6cb31c02f372c43e213054\" tg-width=\"1275\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>CPI &amp; PPI YoY Percentage Change (Author Excel with Data from fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>So far, so unsurprising – not for the market, though. The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq made the bulk of their gains last week right after the CPI report was published. Markets played the pivot book: The Dollar (DXY) withdrew sharply as Yields collapsed, and assets appreciated. The market priced in a higher probability of relative monetary easing of the Federal Reserve due to lower-than-expected inflation. Naturally, the most interest-rate sensitive assets appreciated the most, hence the outperformance of the Nasdaq. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose over 10% on that day. Although that gain has to be taken with a caveat because the CPI print followed the day that FTX went bankrupt and Crypto assets collapsed. Therefore, a rebound seemed natural.</p><p>On Thursday, the Nasdaq (NDX) had its best trading day since April 2020. I don’t believe a new bull market has started, however. Huge upswings and short squeezes are characteristic of bear market rallies. The underlying macroeconomic circumstances have not changed enough to put an end to this bear market. I believe this rally is one of the bigger ones, like the bear market rally starting in June 2022. I believe the market can feed off of big short exposure and the narrative that inflation has finally peaked.</p><p>I also believe inflation has peaked, as I cannot imagine that the economy will be able to healthily operate with the immense burden of the sharply risen cost of capital. The previously raised interest rates start to feed into the economy gradually. As Jerome Powell always reminds us: “Monetary Policy works with long and variable lags.” That counts for monetary easing and monetary tightening. Additionally, the basis effect should help keep the YoY inflation rate comparatively low.</p><p>The financial stress that the economy will have to endure during the first half of 2023 seems too high to be bullish at the current valuation level. While analysts have lowered their expectations for 2023 earnings, they are still around ~$220 for the S&amp;P 500 (0% growth), which currently reflects a P/E FWD of 18x. Given the macroeconomic and geopolitical circumstances I believe that is still way too high.</p><p>In the event of a recession, which is my base case, earnings should fall and not only stay flat for 2023. Assuming the earnings multiple for the S&amp;P 500 goes back to its mean of 16x and earnings depreciate by 10% in 2023 (basically guaranteed if a real recession hits), the fair value of the S&amp;P should be around 3,200 points. Of course, the P/E FWD ratio estimate is only for constructing a framework about where the fair value<i>should</i> be. There are many more factors at play.</p><p>After all, the alternative to equities is an investment in basically risk-free US government bonds, which now have moved into the positive real-rate territory across the yield curve. During the last 20 years, expansive monetary policy has moved even the most risk-averse investors into the equity space. Now that risk-free rates have risen, these risk-averse players are attracted by the risk-free yield, especially when compared to equity premiums. This is why I believe that the current drawdown in equities only accounts for the yield rise and not for earnings depreciation. I make the speculation of largely not being invested while waiting until the other shoe drops, most likely in H1/2023.</p><h2>Searching for historical bottoms</h2><p>Usually, the market is forward-looking and doesn’t reflect the economy. However, historically trying to front-run the pivot didn’t work:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8447327903f174e95c5886662c788efe\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Fed Funds &amp; SP500 (Excel from Author using data from fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>That’s because of the circumstances of the previous pivot points.</p><p>When the Federal Reserve raised rates during the 2000’s it was because the economy was overheating, and the labor market was tight. While rates were rising, the stock market appreciated because of strong fundamentals (rising GDP). After some time, the monetary tightening worked itself into the economy, and the market fundamentals started to worsen. After a period of plateauing rates, the stock market tumbled, and the Federal Reserve was quick to cut rates. While the Federal Reserve was cutting rates the stock market fell even further. Historically, the bottom of the stock market was in only<i>after</i> the Federal Reserve had already cut rates significantly and the liquidity cycle started to move upwards again.</p><p>In 2022, however, we have a different situation. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy, and the stock market depreciated <i>because of it</i>. That fundamental difference exists because of inflation.</p><p>During the last 40 years, the overarching trend of inflation was down. Especially in the last 20 years, global Central Banks struggled to create inflation with loose monetary policy. If the economy and the financial markets start to struggle while there is no concern about material inflation or even fear of deflation, then the playbook of Central Banks becomes very easy: stimulate the economy to raise inflation and decrease unemployment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93089c2daa2b2a46fe64342b4a9c84db\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Taylor-Rule (Author)</span></p><p>According to the Taylor Rule, the Federal Reserve had to lower interest rates (1-h) so often in the past because inflation was below the long-term inflation rate goal,<i>and</i> (1-g) GDP was also below the long-term production potential. Both parts of the formula demanded monetary easing.</p><p>During 2020-2022 the macroeconomic circumstances changed 180 degrees. Because of several shortages, and most importantly massive fiscal stimulus, which was fully financed by expansive monetary policy, demand exploded while goods were scarce. After inflation came in hot quarter after quarter, the Federal Reserve had to raise rates into a falling stock market for the first time in 20+ years.</p><p>Because of the traditionally backward-looking indicators of Central Banks (i.e. unemployment), the economy appeared red hot while inflation was clearly above the 2% target. These two macroeconomic circumstances basically guaranteed monetary tightening. A falling stock market is appreciated by the Federal Reserve because it resembles tightening financial conditions. Tightening financial conditions should decrease inflation and raise unemployment – the goals of the central bank policy during times like these.</p><h2>Trying to time the pivot?</h2><p>We are in a different situation now, though. Inflation is still way above the 2% target. But the slowdown of the global economy is getting more and more clear by the day. And many of the bubbles fueled by monetary excesses [i.e. Meme-Tech-stocks like Peleton (PTON), Palantir (PLTR), Nikola (NKLA), or Crypto (BTC) / (ETH)] have deflated 80-90% from their highs.</p><p>Many investors ask themselves now: If inflation has peaked and the economy is materially slowing down, why not buy the dip in risk assets? Won’t the Fed Put be back after inflation comes down MoM?</p><p>That sounds like an attractive argument. Hence, I believe the current rally could sustain for the remainder of 2022. There are finally positive news for the stock market to rally. Ultimately, however, I believe the current stock price action is nothing more than a rather violent bear market rally because of the following reasons:</p><h3>1. The Federal Reserve wants to make sure that inflation is dealt with</h3><p>During the speculation mania that followed the March 2020 Covid crash, any doubt about valuation levels was quickly dismissed with the “don’t fight the Fed” mantra. And speculators were right back then. If the liquidity cycle makes a big upswing, you don’t want to be caught off guard shorting stocks because of their stretched valuations. Tesla (TSLA) perma bears painfully had to learn that. But the same counts for when the liquidity cycle is in a downturn and investors are recklessly holding on to their overvalued tech stocks. Fighting the Fed in 2022 means staying invested in long-duration, high-growth, high-valuation equities. Just last week, Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s stance to tighten policy until something breaks. Powell seemed confident that it would be easier to put the economy into recession and then rescue it after they overtighten financial conditions. After all, nothing kills inflation like a recession.</p><h3>2. Unemployment is too low</h3><p>Without the labor market breaking and unemployment sharply rising, there is no reason for global Central Banks to meaningfully change the direction of their policy to an accommodative level. During the FOMC meeting, Powell made it clear that rates will likely stay higher for longer than the market currently expects. The Federal Reserve has given up on its attempt of engineering a “softish landing”. Inflation becoming entrenched in the economy is their worst fear, and with the low levels of unemployment, the Central Bank doesn’t have to balance its efforts to slow down inflation. Even after the rate hikes are over, quantitative tightening will worsen financial conditions and be a great hurdle for the stock market.</p><p>Some layoffs have already started. To my belief, tech companies will be able to raise productivity by removing some unnecessary workforce from recent years, where revenue growth was highly monetarily valued, but profitability wasn’t. Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Twitter (TWTR) have already started. Alphabet (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) are likely to follow. If high-paid workers lose their steady income stream, they are likely to sell off some of their accumulated assets in order to have a safety cushion to rely upon. It would be typical that this selling coincides with retail capitulation and a final rise in volatility, which usually marks the low of the bear market. I don’t believe we’re at the end yet, but I don’t want to dismiss the rather orderly decline of stock prices in 2022.</p><h3>3. Bad news will be bad news again</h3><p>I think 2023 will be about the labor market and the effects of higher rates for the housing market and less about the Federal Reserve monetary policy. After all, the bulk of the rate hikes are done, and now it is about how long they can stay this elevated. That’s not as interesting for the stock market as hiking 50-75 basis points per month, at least in terms of forward pricing. As seen last week, the current market is still heavily focused on inflation and the resulting change of the Federal Reserve policy. That’s why bad news about an economic slowdown were bullish. Inflation expectations would decrease, and as a function of that, the Federal Reserve was expected to be less tight.</p><p>I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to immediately cut rates if the labor market eases. Because of that consistency and resilience to lower rates, I think that bad news will be bad news again in 2023. The housing market should come under pressure too, as more and more mortgages have to be refinanced. As of now, the illiquidity of the housing market makes it seem somewhat resilient. But I don’t believe that resiliency will hold in 2023 if rates stay elevated.</p><p>Hiking interest rates for fewer percentage points is less bearish but still not bullish, given how elevated rates already are. The liquidity cycle is still in a downturn, albeit less quickly, and Quantitative Tightening still continues linearly. Until now, much of the Quantitative Tightening got neutralized by a rundown of the US Treasury General account:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ecc783a2e50ff641e9c70d6bfcb9101\" tg-width=\"1169\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>M2 &amp; US Treasury General Account (fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>In 2023, the softening impact of decreasing the treasury account in line with Quantitative Easing will still be possible for some time, but not forever. The likelihood of excessive fiscal policy stimulating the economy has decreased too, given the results of the US midterm elections.</p><h3>4. A stock-market rally is bearish</h3><p>Something has to break for the Fed to pivot. If the market reaches previous highs, it only increases the probability that Central banks tighten monetary policy even further. That’s because financial conditions usually ease during stock market rallies. Bond yields usually fall because the market expects accommodative monetary policy, which makes it possible for the Federal Reserve to conduct more Quantitative Tightening because investors buy them, trying to front-run a pivot. To me that seems self-defeating.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I believe that in 2023, bad news will be bad news again. Plunging earnings and layoffs will ultimately be bearish for the stock market. The Federal Reserve can only pivot if something breaks. The process of “breaking” usually isn’t bullish for the stock market. Bear markets often end with capitulation, but long-only ETF DCA retail still makes their monthly investments in the S&amp;P 500. Unemployment has to rise to turn these inflows into outflows. Bad news will be bad news, and a rallying stock market will be bearish.</p><p><i>This article is written by Nikolai Galozi for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 16:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284891180","content_text":"SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for stocks.In 2023, bad news will be bad news again, and a rallying stock market is bearish.blewisphotography/iStock via Getty Images“Hopium” is back againIt doesn’t take much for investors to be optimistic about the markets again. Last week the S&P 500 (SPX) rallied ~6%, and the Nasdaq ~8% after the inflation print came in lower than expected at 7.7% YoY or 0.4% MoM. The PPI data should come in lower too, reflecting the symptoms of a slowing economy and weakening consumer spending.CPI & PPI YoY Percentage Change (Author Excel with Data from fred.stlouisfed.org)So far, so unsurprising – not for the market, though. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq made the bulk of their gains last week right after the CPI report was published. Markets played the pivot book: The Dollar (DXY) withdrew sharply as Yields collapsed, and assets appreciated. The market priced in a higher probability of relative monetary easing of the Federal Reserve due to lower-than-expected inflation. Naturally, the most interest-rate sensitive assets appreciated the most, hence the outperformance of the Nasdaq. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose over 10% on that day. Although that gain has to be taken with a caveat because the CPI print followed the day that FTX went bankrupt and Crypto assets collapsed. Therefore, a rebound seemed natural.On Thursday, the Nasdaq (NDX) had its best trading day since April 2020. I don’t believe a new bull market has started, however. Huge upswings and short squeezes are characteristic of bear market rallies. The underlying macroeconomic circumstances have not changed enough to put an end to this bear market. I believe this rally is one of the bigger ones, like the bear market rally starting in June 2022. I believe the market can feed off of big short exposure and the narrative that inflation has finally peaked.I also believe inflation has peaked, as I cannot imagine that the economy will be able to healthily operate with the immense burden of the sharply risen cost of capital. The previously raised interest rates start to feed into the economy gradually. As Jerome Powell always reminds us: “Monetary Policy works with long and variable lags.” That counts for monetary easing and monetary tightening. Additionally, the basis effect should help keep the YoY inflation rate comparatively low.The financial stress that the economy will have to endure during the first half of 2023 seems too high to be bullish at the current valuation level. While analysts have lowered their expectations for 2023 earnings, they are still around ~$220 for the S&P 500 (0% growth), which currently reflects a P/E FWD of 18x. Given the macroeconomic and geopolitical circumstances I believe that is still way too high.In the event of a recession, which is my base case, earnings should fall and not only stay flat for 2023. Assuming the earnings multiple for the S&P 500 goes back to its mean of 16x and earnings depreciate by 10% in 2023 (basically guaranteed if a real recession hits), the fair value of the S&P should be around 3,200 points. Of course, the P/E FWD ratio estimate is only for constructing a framework about where the fair valueshould be. There are many more factors at play.After all, the alternative to equities is an investment in basically risk-free US government bonds, which now have moved into the positive real-rate territory across the yield curve. During the last 20 years, expansive monetary policy has moved even the most risk-averse investors into the equity space. Now that risk-free rates have risen, these risk-averse players are attracted by the risk-free yield, especially when compared to equity premiums. This is why I believe that the current drawdown in equities only accounts for the yield rise and not for earnings depreciation. I make the speculation of largely not being invested while waiting until the other shoe drops, most likely in H1/2023.Searching for historical bottomsUsually, the market is forward-looking and doesn’t reflect the economy. However, historically trying to front-run the pivot didn’t work:Fed Funds & SP500 (Excel from Author using data from fred.stlouisfed.org)That’s because of the circumstances of the previous pivot points.When the Federal Reserve raised rates during the 2000’s it was because the economy was overheating, and the labor market was tight. While rates were rising, the stock market appreciated because of strong fundamentals (rising GDP). After some time, the monetary tightening worked itself into the economy, and the market fundamentals started to worsen. After a period of plateauing rates, the stock market tumbled, and the Federal Reserve was quick to cut rates. While the Federal Reserve was cutting rates the stock market fell even further. Historically, the bottom of the stock market was in onlyafter the Federal Reserve had already cut rates significantly and the liquidity cycle started to move upwards again.In 2022, however, we have a different situation. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy, and the stock market depreciated because of it. That fundamental difference exists because of inflation.During the last 40 years, the overarching trend of inflation was down. Especially in the last 20 years, global Central Banks struggled to create inflation with loose monetary policy. If the economy and the financial markets start to struggle while there is no concern about material inflation or even fear of deflation, then the playbook of Central Banks becomes very easy: stimulate the economy to raise inflation and decrease unemployment.Taylor-Rule (Author)According to the Taylor Rule, the Federal Reserve had to lower interest rates (1-h) so often in the past because inflation was below the long-term inflation rate goal,and (1-g) GDP was also below the long-term production potential. Both parts of the formula demanded monetary easing.During 2020-2022 the macroeconomic circumstances changed 180 degrees. Because of several shortages, and most importantly massive fiscal stimulus, which was fully financed by expansive monetary policy, demand exploded while goods were scarce. After inflation came in hot quarter after quarter, the Federal Reserve had to raise rates into a falling stock market for the first time in 20+ years.Because of the traditionally backward-looking indicators of Central Banks (i.e. unemployment), the economy appeared red hot while inflation was clearly above the 2% target. These two macroeconomic circumstances basically guaranteed monetary tightening. A falling stock market is appreciated by the Federal Reserve because it resembles tightening financial conditions. Tightening financial conditions should decrease inflation and raise unemployment – the goals of the central bank policy during times like these.Trying to time the pivot?We are in a different situation now, though. Inflation is still way above the 2% target. But the slowdown of the global economy is getting more and more clear by the day. And many of the bubbles fueled by monetary excesses [i.e. Meme-Tech-stocks like Peleton (PTON), Palantir (PLTR), Nikola (NKLA), or Crypto (BTC) / (ETH)] have deflated 80-90% from their highs.Many investors ask themselves now: If inflation has peaked and the economy is materially slowing down, why not buy the dip in risk assets? Won’t the Fed Put be back after inflation comes down MoM?That sounds like an attractive argument. Hence, I believe the current rally could sustain for the remainder of 2022. There are finally positive news for the stock market to rally. Ultimately, however, I believe the current stock price action is nothing more than a rather violent bear market rally because of the following reasons:1. The Federal Reserve wants to make sure that inflation is dealt withDuring the speculation mania that followed the March 2020 Covid crash, any doubt about valuation levels was quickly dismissed with the “don’t fight the Fed” mantra. And speculators were right back then. If the liquidity cycle makes a big upswing, you don’t want to be caught off guard shorting stocks because of their stretched valuations. Tesla (TSLA) perma bears painfully had to learn that. But the same counts for when the liquidity cycle is in a downturn and investors are recklessly holding on to their overvalued tech stocks. Fighting the Fed in 2022 means staying invested in long-duration, high-growth, high-valuation equities. Just last week, Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s stance to tighten policy until something breaks. Powell seemed confident that it would be easier to put the economy into recession and then rescue it after they overtighten financial conditions. After all, nothing kills inflation like a recession.2. Unemployment is too lowWithout the labor market breaking and unemployment sharply rising, there is no reason for global Central Banks to meaningfully change the direction of their policy to an accommodative level. During the FOMC meeting, Powell made it clear that rates will likely stay higher for longer than the market currently expects. The Federal Reserve has given up on its attempt of engineering a “softish landing”. Inflation becoming entrenched in the economy is their worst fear, and with the low levels of unemployment, the Central Bank doesn’t have to balance its efforts to slow down inflation. Even after the rate hikes are over, quantitative tightening will worsen financial conditions and be a great hurdle for the stock market.Some layoffs have already started. To my belief, tech companies will be able to raise productivity by removing some unnecessary workforce from recent years, where revenue growth was highly monetarily valued, but profitability wasn’t. Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Twitter (TWTR) have already started. Alphabet (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) are likely to follow. If high-paid workers lose their steady income stream, they are likely to sell off some of their accumulated assets in order to have a safety cushion to rely upon. It would be typical that this selling coincides with retail capitulation and a final rise in volatility, which usually marks the low of the bear market. I don’t believe we’re at the end yet, but I don’t want to dismiss the rather orderly decline of stock prices in 2022.3. Bad news will be bad news againI think 2023 will be about the labor market and the effects of higher rates for the housing market and less about the Federal Reserve monetary policy. After all, the bulk of the rate hikes are done, and now it is about how long they can stay this elevated. That’s not as interesting for the stock market as hiking 50-75 basis points per month, at least in terms of forward pricing. As seen last week, the current market is still heavily focused on inflation and the resulting change of the Federal Reserve policy. That’s why bad news about an economic slowdown were bullish. Inflation expectations would decrease, and as a function of that, the Federal Reserve was expected to be less tight.I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to immediately cut rates if the labor market eases. Because of that consistency and resilience to lower rates, I think that bad news will be bad news again in 2023. The housing market should come under pressure too, as more and more mortgages have to be refinanced. As of now, the illiquidity of the housing market makes it seem somewhat resilient. But I don’t believe that resiliency will hold in 2023 if rates stay elevated.Hiking interest rates for fewer percentage points is less bearish but still not bullish, given how elevated rates already are. The liquidity cycle is still in a downturn, albeit less quickly, and Quantitative Tightening still continues linearly. Until now, much of the Quantitative Tightening got neutralized by a rundown of the US Treasury General account:M2 & US Treasury General Account (fred.stlouisfed.org)In 2023, the softening impact of decreasing the treasury account in line with Quantitative Easing will still be possible for some time, but not forever. The likelihood of excessive fiscal policy stimulating the economy has decreased too, given the results of the US midterm elections.4. A stock-market rally is bearishSomething has to break for the Fed to pivot. If the market reaches previous highs, it only increases the probability that Central banks tighten monetary policy even further. That’s because financial conditions usually ease during stock market rallies. Bond yields usually fall because the market expects accommodative monetary policy, which makes it possible for the Federal Reserve to conduct more Quantitative Tightening because investors buy them, trying to front-run a pivot. To me that seems self-defeating.SummaryI believe that in 2023, bad news will be bad news again. Plunging earnings and layoffs will ultimately be bearish for the stock market. The Federal Reserve can only pivot if something breaks. The process of “breaking” usually isn’t bullish for the stock market. Bear markets often end with capitulation, but long-only ETF DCA retail still makes their monthly investments in the S&P 500. Unemployment has to rise to turn these inflows into outflows. Bad news will be bad news, and a rallying stock market will be bearish.This article is written by Nikolai Galozi for reference only. Please note the 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08:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨 | 加息担忧打击，美股纳指跌近2%，特斯拉跌逾6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123211435","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①加息担忧再扰，美国股债双杀，特斯拉跌逾6%；②原油盘中大跳水，美油跌近4%；③俄境内战略机场突遭袭击，俄油外运要道阻塞；④法财长称要用欧版通胀法案回应美国。海外行情1、ISM指数强化联储加息预","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：①加息担忧再扰，美国股债双杀，特斯拉跌逾6%；②原油盘中大跳水，美油跌近4%；③俄境内战略机场突遭袭击，俄油外运要道阻塞；④法财长称要用欧版通胀法案回应美国。</blockquote><p>海外行情</p><p>1、ISM指数强化联储加息预期美股集体收跌纳指跌近2%</p><p>美股周一收跌。美国11月ISM服务业指数意外上升，使市场担心美联储继续激进加息并将美国经济推入衰退之中。三家大型投行均警告美股将继续下挫。截止收盘，纳斯达克指数跌1.93%，标普500指数跌1.79%，道琼斯指数跌1.4%。其中，纳指、标普500指数均创11月10日以来最大单日跌幅。</p><p>10年期美债收益率升逾10个基点，远离两个多月低位；重要衰退预警指标——2年期和10年期美债息差扩大到将近-82个基点，刷新1981年来最严重倒挂程度。</p><p>大型科技股全线走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>跌逾2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、脸书小幅下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>收跌6.37%，成交170.7亿美元。能源股集体下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">康菲石油</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">斯伦贝谢</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>跌逾2%。</p><p>2、热门中概股多数下跌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌超5%</p><p>热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.30%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">满帮</a>跌超8%，爱奇艺跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>小幅下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>小幅上涨。</p><p>3、欧股收盘普跌德国DAX30指数跌0.56%</p><p>欧股主要指数周一收盘普跌，德国DAX30指数跌0.56%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨0.15%，法国CAC40指数跌0.67%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.54%。</p><p>4、美国WTI原油期货周一收跌3.8% 创一周来最低收盘价</p><p>纽约商品交易所1月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌3.05美元，跌幅为3.8%，收于每桶76.93美元，创11月25日以来的最低收盘价。</p><p>布伦特2月原油期货收跌3.38%，报82.68美元/桶，创1月10日以来即月合约收盘新低。</p><p>美国汽油和天然气期货继续齐跌。NYMEX 1月汽油期货收跌3.4%，报2.2019美元/加仑，连跌三日，创去年12月22日以来新低；NYMEX 1月天然气期货收跌11.21%，报5.5770美元/百万英热单位，连跌四日，创10月27日以来收盘新低。</p><p>5、纽约黄金期货价格周一收跌1.6%</p><p>周一，纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金期货价格下跌28.30美元，跌幅为1.6%，收于每盎司1781.30美元。</p><p>两份不同的经济数据均表明美国服务业状况好于预期、薪酬继续强劲增长，提振了美元与美债收益率攀升，令金价承压。积极的经济数据也支持了美联储将继续激进加息的市场预期。</p><p>宏观新闻</p><p>1、美国ISM服务业PMI超预期上升 给寻求压抑通胀的美联储提高了难度</p><p>美国11月服务业加速扩张，其中商业活动指数甚至创下2021年3月以来的最大涨幅，表明该国经济的最大部分仍然具有弹性。</p><p>当地时间周一（12月5日），供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，美国11月服务业PMI升至56.5，显著高于10月的54.4，市场先前预期是降至53.1。</p><p>媒体分析称，美国服务业走强在提醒市场，美联储的工作还没有完成。目前该国的通胀压力来源已经从燃料和食品转到了服务业，而央行方面希望将利率提高到能压抑经济的程度，尤其是对服务业。</p><p>2、对等回击！法国财长：拥有欧版《通胀削减法案》就是最好的回应</p><p>当地时间周一（12月5日），法国经济和财政部长勒梅尔（Bruno Le Maire）表示，为了对抗美国的《通胀削减法案》，欧洲应该采取同样的做法。</p><p>勒梅尔指出，拥有自己的《通胀削减法案》是欧洲最好的回应方式——这种简单、有效且大面积的补贴方法不仅可以资助欧洲的再工业化，还能实现欧洲经济的脱碳。</p><p>3、无视西方国家压力 印度继续扩大与俄罗斯的贸易关系</p><p>当地时间周一，印度外交部长苏杰生在与访印的德国外长贝尔伯克举行的简报会上表示，印度已经向俄罗斯提供了一份印度产品清单，以便进入俄罗斯市场，寻求缩小与俄罗斯日益扩大的贸易逆差。</p><p>西方国家的限制导致俄罗斯面临一些关键原材料和部件的短缺，削弱了该国的工业能力。上周有媒体报道称，俄罗斯已向印度发送了一份包含500多种产品的求助清单，其中包括汽车、飞机和火车零部件。</p><p>4、OPEC+维持产量不变 俄罗斯出口不确定性或引发市场动荡</p><p>面对市场波动加剧及不确定性上升，OPEC+维持原油产量不变。周日简短网络会议的结果反映了未来几个月供需的不可预测性，以及过去一周价格的剧烈震荡。</p><p>这个产油国集团刚刚落实了上次会议达成的日减产200万桶的协议。与此同时，欧盟对俄罗斯原油出口的限制于周一生效。</p><p>5、国际清算银行：全球债务居高不下令加息难度加大</p><p>国际清算银行（BIS）一位官员表示，近年来全球各经济体积累了巨额债务，为各国央行应对通胀带来挑战。</p><p>总部位于巴塞尔的BIS的货币与经济部门主管Claudio Borio告诉记者：“使这项任务变得复杂的一个因素是世界各地公私营部门的债务水平都很高。” 他补充说：借款的不断增加“表明经济对加息更为敏感，但我们还不清楚具体的敏感度。”</p><p>6、土耳其的油轮保险证明要求卡住了黑海石油外运的咽喉</p><p>土耳其要求穿行博斯普鲁斯海峡和达达尼尔海峡的油轮提供保险证明，卡住了俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的石油外运。该规定已于上周五生效，要求运输原油的船舶提供保险公司的信函，保证这些船舶在土耳其水域享有保险保障。</p><p>7、渣打：比特币明年有可能跌至5000美元水平</p><p>渣打银行在上周一份题为“2023年金融市场的意外”的报告中列举了该行认为可能会出现的、被市场低估的一些行情，而比特币暴跌至5000美元就是其中之一。</p><p>该行表示，虽然目前来看比特币的抛售速度已经放缓，但已经造成了对加密市场的伤害。越来越多的加密货币公司和交易所开始发觉自身流动性的不足，继而导致进一步的破产以及投资者对数字资产的信心崩溃。</p><p>俄乌局势</p><p>1、乌克兰国防部长同美国国防部长通电话</p><p>据乌克兰媒体报道，当地时间12月5日，乌克兰国防部长列兹尼科夫通过社交媒体称，当天他同美国国防部长奥斯汀通电话，主要就提升乌克兰防空能力进行了讨论。</p><p>2、俄称两军用机场遭乌克兰无人机袭击</p><p>当地时间12月5日，俄罗斯国防部发表声明说，乌克兰当天早上派出无人机攻击了位于俄罗斯梁赞州和萨拉托夫州的军用机场，但是被俄军防空系统拦截。攻击中有3名俄军士兵死亡，另有4人受伤。此外，由于乌克兰无人机在军用机场上方的坠落，导致俄军两架战机的机体受损。 (央视新闻)</p><p>3、普京驾车视察克里米亚大桥 境内战略机场突遭袭击</p><p>综合多家俄罗斯媒体报道，在克里米亚大桥爆炸事件发生两个月后，俄罗斯总统普京周一亲自驾车视察了大桥修复工作的现场。</p><p>根据俄罗斯媒体放出的画面，普京驾车通过了修复后的桥面，副驾驶位置上坐着负责修理大桥事务的副总理胡斯努林（Marat Khusnullin）。</p><p>同样在周一，一条令国际社会颇为不安的消息传来——距离俄乌边境边境数百公里的俄罗斯战略空军基地遭袭。俄罗斯国防部在周一确认，数家“苏联时期的无人机”对梁赞地区的Dyagilevo空军基地和萨拉托夫州的Engels空军基地发起攻击。</p><p>公司新闻</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1181190537\" target=\"_blank\">特斯拉中国：主动减产说法不实</a></p><p>周一有传言称特斯拉计划降低其上海工厂的产量，可能会使得特斯拉上海工厂本月的产量减少大约20%，这也是特斯拉首次自愿减少上海工厂的产量。特斯拉中国有关人士12月5日晚对媒体表示，经过内部确认，可以明确上述关于减产的说法均不属实。</p><p>虽然出面澄清了谣言，但在市场情绪拖累下特斯拉周一仍然收跌6.37%，也是近两周最大单日跌幅。</p><p>2、高管接二连三离职Salesforce领跌道指</p><p>CRM软件服务供应商Salesforce（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">赛富时</a>）周一又遇高层变动。公司旗下通讯应用Slack创始人兼CEO斯图亚特·巴特菲尔德宣布将于下个月离开公司，同时Slack分管产品、市场和品牌的高管也将一起离职。就在上周，Salesforce的联席CEO 布伦特·泰勒也宣布将在下个月离开公司，不过巴特菲尔德表示自己的离开与泰勒没有关系。</p><p>受此消息影响，Salesforce周一收跌7.35%，领跌道指成分股。</p><p>3、向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">索尼</a>示好 微软总裁提议未来十年同步更新《使命召唤》</p><p>据媒体报道，微软总裁布拉德·史密斯称，为了平息<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SONY\">索尼</a>对公司收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">动视暴雪</a>的疑虑，微软已经向竞争对手提供了一份为期10年的合同，确保热门IP《使命召唤》的新作在索尼PlayStation与微软Xbox同步更新。</p><p>4、Pinterest将放慢招聘速度</p><p>据媒体周一报道，美国社交媒体平台Pinterest发言人证实，Pinterest将在今年剩下的时间里放慢招聘速度，并削减了一些招聘团队的员工数量。该发言人没有具体说明有多少人被解雇。</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2289676891\" target=\"_blank\">瑞信一度大涨近8% 沙特或向其投行业务抛来橄榄枝</a></p><p>12月5日周一，有消息称，沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼可能入股瑞信计划剥离的投资银行业务，瑞信集团股价一度上涨7.5%。</p><p>周一，据媒体援引知情人士的话说，本·萨勒曼可能向该投行业务投资约5亿美元。该人士称，其他投资者可能包括前巴克莱首席执行官Bob Diamond的Atlas Merchant Capital。目前尚不清楚本·萨勒曼是打算自掏腰包还是通过沙特的其他投资工具。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨 | 加息担忧打击，美股纳指跌近2%，特斯拉跌逾6%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨 | 加息担忧打击，美股纳指跌近2%，特斯拉跌逾6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-06 08:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：①加息担忧再扰，美国股债双杀，特斯拉跌逾6%；②原油盘中大跳水，美油跌近4%；③俄境内战略机场突遭袭击，俄油外运要道阻塞；④法财长称要用欧版通胀法案回应美国。</blockquote><p>海外行情</p><p>1、ISM指数强化联储加息预期美股集体收跌纳指跌近2%</p><p>美股周一收跌。美国11月ISM服务业指数意外上升，使市场担心美联储继续激进加息并将美国经济推入衰退之中。三家大型投行均警告美股将继续下挫。截止收盘，纳斯达克指数跌1.93%，标普500指数跌1.79%，道琼斯指数跌1.4%。其中，纳指、标普500指数均创11月10日以来最大单日跌幅。</p><p>10年期美债收益率升逾10个基点，远离两个多月低位；重要衰退预警指标——2年期和10年期美债息差扩大到将近-82个基点，刷新1981年来最严重倒挂程度。</p><p>大型科技股全线走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>跌逾2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、脸书小幅下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>收跌6.37%，成交170.7亿美元。能源股集体下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">康菲石油</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">斯伦贝谢</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>跌逾2%。</p><p>2、热门中概股多数下跌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌超5%</p><p>热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.30%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">满帮</a>跌超8%，爱奇艺跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>小幅下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>小幅上涨。</p><p>3、欧股收盘普跌德国DAX30指数跌0.56%</p><p>欧股主要指数周一收盘普跌，德国DAX30指数跌0.56%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨0.15%，法国CAC40指数跌0.67%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.54%。</p><p>4、美国WTI原油期货周一收跌3.8% 创一周来最低收盘价</p><p>纽约商品交易所1月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌3.05美元，跌幅为3.8%，收于每桶76.93美元，创11月25日以来的最低收盘价。</p><p>布伦特2月原油期货收跌3.38%，报82.68美元/桶，创1月10日以来即月合约收盘新低。</p><p>美国汽油和天然气期货继续齐跌。NYMEX 1月汽油期货收跌3.4%，报2.2019美元/加仑，连跌三日，创去年12月22日以来新低；NYMEX 1月天然气期货收跌11.21%，报5.5770美元/百万英热单位，连跌四日，创10月27日以来收盘新低。</p><p>5、纽约黄金期货价格周一收跌1.6%</p><p>周一，纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金期货价格下跌28.30美元，跌幅为1.6%，收于每盎司1781.30美元。</p><p>两份不同的经济数据均表明美国服务业状况好于预期、薪酬继续强劲增长，提振了美元与美债收益率攀升，令金价承压。积极的经济数据也支持了美联储将继续激进加息的市场预期。</p><p>宏观新闻</p><p>1、美国ISM服务业PMI超预期上升 给寻求压抑通胀的美联储提高了难度</p><p>美国11月服务业加速扩张，其中商业活动指数甚至创下2021年3月以来的最大涨幅，表明该国经济的最大部分仍然具有弹性。</p><p>当地时间周一（12月5日），供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，美国11月服务业PMI升至56.5，显著高于10月的54.4，市场先前预期是降至53.1。</p><p>媒体分析称，美国服务业走强在提醒市场，美联储的工作还没有完成。目前该国的通胀压力来源已经从燃料和食品转到了服务业，而央行方面希望将利率提高到能压抑经济的程度，尤其是对服务业。</p><p>2、对等回击！法国财长：拥有欧版《通胀削减法案》就是最好的回应</p><p>当地时间周一（12月5日），法国经济和财政部长勒梅尔（Bruno Le Maire）表示，为了对抗美国的《通胀削减法案》，欧洲应该采取同样的做法。</p><p>勒梅尔指出，拥有自己的《通胀削减法案》是欧洲最好的回应方式——这种简单、有效且大面积的补贴方法不仅可以资助欧洲的再工业化，还能实现欧洲经济的脱碳。</p><p>3、无视西方国家压力 印度继续扩大与俄罗斯的贸易关系</p><p>当地时间周一，印度外交部长苏杰生在与访印的德国外长贝尔伯克举行的简报会上表示，印度已经向俄罗斯提供了一份印度产品清单，以便进入俄罗斯市场，寻求缩小与俄罗斯日益扩大的贸易逆差。</p><p>西方国家的限制导致俄罗斯面临一些关键原材料和部件的短缺，削弱了该国的工业能力。上周有媒体报道称，俄罗斯已向印度发送了一份包含500多种产品的求助清单，其中包括汽车、飞机和火车零部件。</p><p>4、OPEC+维持产量不变 俄罗斯出口不确定性或引发市场动荡</p><p>面对市场波动加剧及不确定性上升，OPEC+维持原油产量不变。周日简短网络会议的结果反映了未来几个月供需的不可预测性，以及过去一周价格的剧烈震荡。</p><p>这个产油国集团刚刚落实了上次会议达成的日减产200万桶的协议。与此同时，欧盟对俄罗斯原油出口的限制于周一生效。</p><p>5、国际清算银行：全球债务居高不下令加息难度加大</p><p>国际清算银行（BIS）一位官员表示，近年来全球各经济体积累了巨额债务，为各国央行应对通胀带来挑战。</p><p>总部位于巴塞尔的BIS的货币与经济部门主管Claudio Borio告诉记者：“使这项任务变得复杂的一个因素是世界各地公私营部门的债务水平都很高。” 他补充说：借款的不断增加“表明经济对加息更为敏感，但我们还不清楚具体的敏感度。”</p><p>6、土耳其的油轮保险证明要求卡住了黑海石油外运的咽喉</p><p>土耳其要求穿行博斯普鲁斯海峡和达达尼尔海峡的油轮提供保险证明，卡住了俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的石油外运。该规定已于上周五生效，要求运输原油的船舶提供保险公司的信函，保证这些船舶在土耳其水域享有保险保障。</p><p>7、渣打：比特币明年有可能跌至5000美元水平</p><p>渣打银行在上周一份题为“2023年金融市场的意外”的报告中列举了该行认为可能会出现的、被市场低估的一些行情，而比特币暴跌至5000美元就是其中之一。</p><p>该行表示，虽然目前来看比特币的抛售速度已经放缓，但已经造成了对加密市场的伤害。越来越多的加密货币公司和交易所开始发觉自身流动性的不足，继而导致进一步的破产以及投资者对数字资产的信心崩溃。</p><p>俄乌局势</p><p>1、乌克兰国防部长同美国国防部长通电话</p><p>据乌克兰媒体报道，当地时间12月5日，乌克兰国防部长列兹尼科夫通过社交媒体称，当天他同美国国防部长奥斯汀通电话，主要就提升乌克兰防空能力进行了讨论。</p><p>2、俄称两军用机场遭乌克兰无人机袭击</p><p>当地时间12月5日，俄罗斯国防部发表声明说，乌克兰当天早上派出无人机攻击了位于俄罗斯梁赞州和萨拉托夫州的军用机场，但是被俄军防空系统拦截。攻击中有3名俄军士兵死亡，另有4人受伤。此外，由于乌克兰无人机在军用机场上方的坠落，导致俄军两架战机的机体受损。 (央视新闻)</p><p>3、普京驾车视察克里米亚大桥 境内战略机场突遭袭击</p><p>综合多家俄罗斯媒体报道，在克里米亚大桥爆炸事件发生两个月后，俄罗斯总统普京周一亲自驾车视察了大桥修复工作的现场。</p><p>根据俄罗斯媒体放出的画面，普京驾车通过了修复后的桥面，副驾驶位置上坐着负责修理大桥事务的副总理胡斯努林（Marat Khusnullin）。</p><p>同样在周一，一条令国际社会颇为不安的消息传来——距离俄乌边境边境数百公里的俄罗斯战略空军基地遭袭。俄罗斯国防部在周一确认，数家“苏联时期的无人机”对梁赞地区的Dyagilevo空军基地和萨拉托夫州的Engels空军基地发起攻击。</p><p>公司新闻</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1181190537\" target=\"_blank\">特斯拉中国：主动减产说法不实</a></p><p>周一有传言称特斯拉计划降低其上海工厂的产量，可能会使得特斯拉上海工厂本月的产量减少大约20%，这也是特斯拉首次自愿减少上海工厂的产量。特斯拉中国有关人士12月5日晚对媒体表示，经过内部确认，可以明确上述关于减产的说法均不属实。</p><p>虽然出面澄清了谣言，但在市场情绪拖累下特斯拉周一仍然收跌6.37%，也是近两周最大单日跌幅。</p><p>2、高管接二连三离职Salesforce领跌道指</p><p>CRM软件服务供应商Salesforce（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">赛富时</a>）周一又遇高层变动。公司旗下通讯应用Slack创始人兼CEO斯图亚特·巴特菲尔德宣布将于下个月离开公司，同时Slack分管产品、市场和品牌的高管也将一起离职。就在上周，Salesforce的联席CEO 布伦特·泰勒也宣布将在下个月离开公司，不过巴特菲尔德表示自己的离开与泰勒没有关系。</p><p>受此消息影响，Salesforce周一收跌7.35%，领跌道指成分股。</p><p>3、向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">索尼</a>示好 微软总裁提议未来十年同步更新《使命召唤》</p><p>据媒体报道，微软总裁布拉德·史密斯称，为了平息<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SONY\">索尼</a>对公司收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">动视暴雪</a>的疑虑，微软已经向竞争对手提供了一份为期10年的合同，确保热门IP《使命召唤》的新作在索尼PlayStation与微软Xbox同步更新。</p><p>4、Pinterest将放慢招聘速度</p><p>据媒体周一报道，美国社交媒体平台Pinterest发言人证实，Pinterest将在今年剩下的时间里放慢招聘速度，并削减了一些招聘团队的员工数量。该发言人没有具体说明有多少人被解雇。</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2289676891\" target=\"_blank\">瑞信一度大涨近8% 沙特或向其投行业务抛来橄榄枝</a></p><p>12月5日周一，有消息称，沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼可能入股瑞信计划剥离的投资银行业务，瑞信集团股价一度上涨7.5%。</p><p>周一，据媒体援引知情人士的话说，本·萨勒曼可能向该投行业务投资约5亿美元。该人士称，其他投资者可能包括前巴克莱首席执行官Bob Diamond的Atlas Merchant Capital。目前尚不清楚本·萨勒曼是打算自掏腰包还是通过沙特的其他投资工具。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4099":"汽车制造商","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4574":"无人驾驶","03086":"华夏纳指","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123211435","content_text":"摘要：①加息担忧再扰，美国股债双杀，特斯拉跌逾6%；②原油盘中大跳水，美油跌近4%；③俄境内战略机场突遭袭击，俄油外运要道阻塞；④法财长称要用欧版通胀法案回应美国。海外行情1、ISM指数强化联储加息预期美股集体收跌纳指跌近2%美股周一收跌。美国11月ISM服务业指数意外上升，使市场担心美联储继续激进加息并将美国经济推入衰退之中。三家大型投行均警告美股将继续下挫。截止收盘，纳斯达克指数跌1.93%，标普500指数跌1.79%，道琼斯指数跌1.4%。其中，纳指、标普500指数均创11月10日以来最大单日跌幅。10年期美债收益率升逾10个基点，远离两个多月低位；重要衰退预警指标——2年期和10年期美债息差扩大到将近-82个基点，刷新1981年来最严重倒挂程度。大型科技股全线走低，亚马逊跌超3%，奈飞跌逾2%，微软跌超1%，苹果、谷歌、脸书小幅下跌。特斯拉收跌6.37%，成交170.7亿美元。能源股集体下跌，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、康菲石油、斯伦贝谢、西方石油跌逾2%。2、热门中概股多数下跌爱奇艺跌超5%热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.30%。满帮跌超8%，爱奇艺跌超5%，理想汽车、网易、蔚来跌超2%，知乎、小鹏汽车、哔哩哔哩小幅下跌。唯品会涨超3%，百度涨超2%，拼多多涨超1%，京东、微博、阿里巴巴小幅上涨。3、欧股收盘普跌德国DAX30指数跌0.56%欧股主要指数周一收盘普跌，德国DAX30指数跌0.56%，英国富时100指数涨0.15%，法国CAC40指数跌0.67%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.54%。4、美国WTI原油期货周一收跌3.8% 创一周来最低收盘价纽约商品交易所1月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌3.05美元，跌幅为3.8%，收于每桶76.93美元，创11月25日以来的最低收盘价。布伦特2月原油期货收跌3.38%，报82.68美元/桶，创1月10日以来即月合约收盘新低。美国汽油和天然气期货继续齐跌。NYMEX 1月汽油期货收跌3.4%，报2.2019美元/加仑，连跌三日，创去年12月22日以来新低；NYMEX 1月天然气期货收跌11.21%，报5.5770美元/百万英热单位，连跌四日，创10月27日以来收盘新低。5、纽约黄金期货价格周一收跌1.6%周一，纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金期货价格下跌28.30美元，跌幅为1.6%，收于每盎司1781.30美元。两份不同的经济数据均表明美国服务业状况好于预期、薪酬继续强劲增长，提振了美元与美债收益率攀升，令金价承压。积极的经济数据也支持了美联储将继续激进加息的市场预期。宏观新闻1、美国ISM服务业PMI超预期上升 给寻求压抑通胀的美联储提高了难度美国11月服务业加速扩张，其中商业活动指数甚至创下2021年3月以来的最大涨幅，表明该国经济的最大部分仍然具有弹性。当地时间周一（12月5日），供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，美国11月服务业PMI升至56.5，显著高于10月的54.4，市场先前预期是降至53.1。媒体分析称，美国服务业走强在提醒市场，美联储的工作还没有完成。目前该国的通胀压力来源已经从燃料和食品转到了服务业，而央行方面希望将利率提高到能压抑经济的程度，尤其是对服务业。2、对等回击！法国财长：拥有欧版《通胀削减法案》就是最好的回应当地时间周一（12月5日），法国经济和财政部长勒梅尔（Bruno Le Maire）表示，为了对抗美国的《通胀削减法案》，欧洲应该采取同样的做法。勒梅尔指出，拥有自己的《通胀削减法案》是欧洲最好的回应方式——这种简单、有效且大面积的补贴方法不仅可以资助欧洲的再工业化，还能实现欧洲经济的脱碳。3、无视西方国家压力 印度继续扩大与俄罗斯的贸易关系当地时间周一，印度外交部长苏杰生在与访印的德国外长贝尔伯克举行的简报会上表示，印度已经向俄罗斯提供了一份印度产品清单，以便进入俄罗斯市场，寻求缩小与俄罗斯日益扩大的贸易逆差。西方国家的限制导致俄罗斯面临一些关键原材料和部件的短缺，削弱了该国的工业能力。上周有媒体报道称，俄罗斯已向印度发送了一份包含500多种产品的求助清单，其中包括汽车、飞机和火车零部件。4、OPEC+维持产量不变 俄罗斯出口不确定性或引发市场动荡面对市场波动加剧及不确定性上升，OPEC+维持原油产量不变。周日简短网络会议的结果反映了未来几个月供需的不可预测性，以及过去一周价格的剧烈震荡。这个产油国集团刚刚落实了上次会议达成的日减产200万桶的协议。与此同时，欧盟对俄罗斯原油出口的限制于周一生效。5、国际清算银行：全球债务居高不下令加息难度加大国际清算银行（BIS）一位官员表示，近年来全球各经济体积累了巨额债务，为各国央行应对通胀带来挑战。总部位于巴塞尔的BIS的货币与经济部门主管Claudio Borio告诉记者：“使这项任务变得复杂的一个因素是世界各地公私营部门的债务水平都很高。” 他补充说：借款的不断增加“表明经济对加息更为敏感，但我们还不清楚具体的敏感度。”6、土耳其的油轮保险证明要求卡住了黑海石油外运的咽喉土耳其要求穿行博斯普鲁斯海峡和达达尼尔海峡的油轮提供保险证明，卡住了俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的石油外运。该规定已于上周五生效，要求运输原油的船舶提供保险公司的信函，保证这些船舶在土耳其水域享有保险保障。7、渣打：比特币明年有可能跌至5000美元水平渣打银行在上周一份题为“2023年金融市场的意外”的报告中列举了该行认为可能会出现的、被市场低估的一些行情，而比特币暴跌至5000美元就是其中之一。该行表示，虽然目前来看比特币的抛售速度已经放缓，但已经造成了对加密市场的伤害。越来越多的加密货币公司和交易所开始发觉自身流动性的不足，继而导致进一步的破产以及投资者对数字资产的信心崩溃。俄乌局势1、乌克兰国防部长同美国国防部长通电话据乌克兰媒体报道，当地时间12月5日，乌克兰国防部长列兹尼科夫通过社交媒体称，当天他同美国国防部长奥斯汀通电话，主要就提升乌克兰防空能力进行了讨论。2、俄称两军用机场遭乌克兰无人机袭击当地时间12月5日，俄罗斯国防部发表声明说，乌克兰当天早上派出无人机攻击了位于俄罗斯梁赞州和萨拉托夫州的军用机场，但是被俄军防空系统拦截。攻击中有3名俄军士兵死亡，另有4人受伤。此外，由于乌克兰无人机在军用机场上方的坠落，导致俄军两架战机的机体受损。 (央视新闻)3、普京驾车视察克里米亚大桥 境内战略机场突遭袭击综合多家俄罗斯媒体报道，在克里米亚大桥爆炸事件发生两个月后，俄罗斯总统普京周一亲自驾车视察了大桥修复工作的现场。根据俄罗斯媒体放出的画面，普京驾车通过了修复后的桥面，副驾驶位置上坐着负责修理大桥事务的副总理胡斯努林（Marat Khusnullin）。同样在周一，一条令国际社会颇为不安的消息传来——距离俄乌边境边境数百公里的俄罗斯战略空军基地遭袭。俄罗斯国防部在周一确认，数家“苏联时期的无人机”对梁赞地区的Dyagilevo空军基地和萨拉托夫州的Engels空军基地发起攻击。公司新闻1、特斯拉中国：主动减产说法不实周一有传言称特斯拉计划降低其上海工厂的产量，可能会使得特斯拉上海工厂本月的产量减少大约20%，这也是特斯拉首次自愿减少上海工厂的产量。特斯拉中国有关人士12月5日晚对媒体表示，经过内部确认，可以明确上述关于减产的说法均不属实。虽然出面澄清了谣言，但在市场情绪拖累下特斯拉周一仍然收跌6.37%，也是近两周最大单日跌幅。2、高管接二连三离职Salesforce领跌道指CRM软件服务供应商Salesforce（赛富时）周一又遇高层变动。公司旗下通讯应用Slack创始人兼CEO斯图亚特·巴特菲尔德宣布将于下个月离开公司，同时Slack分管产品、市场和品牌的高管也将一起离职。就在上周，Salesforce的联席CEO 布伦特·泰勒也宣布将在下个月离开公司，不过巴特菲尔德表示自己的离开与泰勒没有关系。受此消息影响，Salesforce周一收跌7.35%，领跌道指成分股。3、向索尼示好 微软总裁提议未来十年同步更新《使命召唤》据媒体报道，微软总裁布拉德·史密斯称，为了平息索尼对公司收购动视暴雪的疑虑，微软已经向竞争对手提供了一份为期10年的合同，确保热门IP《使命召唤》的新作在索尼PlayStation与微软Xbox同步更新。4、Pinterest将放慢招聘速度据媒体周一报道，美国社交媒体平台Pinterest发言人证实，Pinterest将在今年剩下的时间里放慢招聘速度，并削减了一些招聘团队的员工数量。该发言人没有具体说明有多少人被解雇。5、瑞信一度大涨近8% 沙特或向其投行业务抛来橄榄枝12月5日周一，有消息称，沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼可能入股瑞信计划剥离的投资银行业务，瑞信集团股价一度上涨7.5%。周一，据媒体援引知情人士的话说，本·萨勒曼可能向该投行业务投资约5亿美元。该人士称，其他投资者可能包括前巴克莱首席执行官Bob Diamond的Atlas Merchant Capital。目前尚不清楚本·萨勒曼是打算自掏腰包还是通过沙特的其他投资工具。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968655889,"gmtCreate":1669217384041,"gmtModify":1676538169015,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968655889","repostId":"1160123557","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160123557","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669217038,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160123557?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-23 23:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top Calls on Wall Street: Tesla Upgrade and Autodesk Downgrade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160123557","media":"The Fly","summary":"Tesla upgrade, Autodesk downgrade, and UnitedHealth coverage assumption among today's top calls on W","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla upgrade, Autodesk downgrade, and UnitedHealth coverage assumption among today&#39;s top calls on Wall Street</p><p><b>Top 5 Upgrades:</b></p><ul><li>Citi analyst Itay Michaeli upgraded <b>Tesla</b> (TSLA) to Neutral from Sell with a price target of $176, up from $141.33. The year-to-date pullback in the shares has &#34;balanced out&#34; the near-term risk/reward, Michaeli tells investors in a research note.</li><li>Argus analyst John Staszak upgraded <b>Yum! Brands</b> (YUM) to Buy from Hold with a $142 price target. The analyst expects consumers to opt for the company&#39;s relatively inexpensive menu items, looking for Yum! Brands to grow at a &#34;solid pace.&#34;</li><li>Wells Fargo analyst Larry Biegelsen upgraded <b>Zimmer Biomet</b> (ZBH) to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $124, up from $116. The analyst cites consistent execution in 2022; the company&#39;s Hips and Knees growing in line with the ortho market this year; strong Q4 ortho trends based on his channel checks that imply upside to Street estimates; and realistic 2023 targets.</li><li>BofA analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich upgraded <b>Warner Music</b> (WMG) to Neutral from Underperform with a price target of $33, up from $23, after the company reported what she called a &#34;strong end&#34; to the fiscal year.</li><li>Deutsche Bank analyst Liam Fitzpatrick upgraded <b>Vale</b> (VALE) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $20, up from $19. The analyst names Vale his top pick among the iron ore majors. The 30% pullback from the year-to-date high is an opportunity to buy a company &#34;with sector leading shareholder returns, medium-term growth optionality and low reinvestment needs,&#34; Fitzpatrick tells investors in a research note.</li></ul><p><b>Top 5 Downgrades:</b></p><ul><li>Mizuho analyst Matthew Broome downgraded <b>Autodesk</b> (ADSK) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $210, down from $260. The company reported a weaker-than-expected Q3 as growing macro uncertainty impacted contracts with multi-year up-front terms, with customers moving to conserve cash, Broome tells investors in a research note.</li><li>Oppenheimer analyst Steven Lichtman downgraded <b>Medtronic</b> (MDT) to Perform from Outperform with a price target of $85, down from $106. On Tuesday&#39;s Q2 call, management noted supply chain issues took longer than expected to resolve in Q2, impacting the second half of the year ramp, the analyst says. Citi analyst Joanne Wuensch also downgraded Medtronic to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $85, down from $108.</li><li>Citi analyst Itay Michaeli downgraded <b>Magna</b> (MGA) to Neutral from Buy with an unchanged price target of $62. The risk/reward has &#34;balanced out&#34; with the stock reaching the price target, Michaeli tells investors in a research note.</li><li>Raymond James analyst Wilma Burdis downgraded <b>Prudential Financial</b> (PRU) to Market Perform from Strong Buy without a price target. After meeting with Prudential Chairman and CEO Charles Lowrey, Burdis notes the company does not believe its path forward is linear, as its diverse businesses have growth opportunities in multiple markets.</li><li>Deutsche Bank analyst Abhi Agarwal downgraded <b>Southern Copper</b> (SCCO) to Sell from Hold with a $45 price target. Southern Copper&#39;s updated guidance for 2023 onwards reflects that the company &#34;is struggling to get its operations on track&#34; after the COVID-related disruptions, the analyst notes.</li></ul><p><b>Top 5 Initiations:</b></p><ul><li>Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright assumed coverage of <b>UnitedHealth</b> (UNH) with an Overweight rating with an unchanged price target of $587. In health insurance, &#34;scale is king&#34; and UnitedHealth is the largest national insurer with a top three position in almost all insurance end markets, Wright tells investors.  The analyst also assumed coverage of Cigna (CI) with an Overweight rating.</li><li>Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright assumed coverage of <b>CVS Health</b> (CVS) with an Overweight rating with a price target of $119, down from $124. The CVS &#34;story has been more complicated of late,&#34; said Wright, citing &#34;notable setbacks&#34; in the surprising decline in MA Star Rating and a PBM contract loss to Centene (CNC), but she remains constructive on the longer-term earnings prospects.</li><li>Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright assumed coverage of <b>Walgreens Boots Alliance</b> (WBA) with an Underweight rating with an unchanged price target of $39. While she is forecasting improved profitability in fiscal 2023, she remains concerned on macroeconomic challenges, European headwinds, and potential integration headwinds after VillageMD announced the definitive agreement to acquire Summit Health-CityMD for $8.9B in conjunction with Cigna (CI).</li><li>Benchmark analyst John Lawrence initiated coverage of <b>TravelCenters</b> (TA) with a Buy rating and $65 price target. New management has made significant improvements to the operation since 2020 that have resulted in a stronger growth profile and expanding EBITDA margins, said Lawrence, who sees TravelCenters being set up to deliver modest revenue growth and expanding adjusted EBITDA margins over the intermediate term.</li><li>Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton assumed coverage of <b>Burlington Stores</b> (BURL) with an Overweight rating with a price target of $219, up from $175, following the company&#39;s Q3 report.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"lsy1649979459173","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Calls on Wall Street: Tesla Upgrade and Autodesk Downgrade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Calls on Wall Street: Tesla Upgrade and Autodesk Downgrade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-23 23:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3623214&headline=TSLA;YUM;ZBH;WMG;VALE;ADSK;MDT;MGA;PRU;SCCO;UNH;CVS;CI;CNC;TA;BURL-Street-Wrap-Todays-Top--Upgrades-Downgrades-Initiations><strong>The Fly</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla upgrade, Autodesk downgrade, and UnitedHealth coverage assumption among today's top calls on Wall StreetTop 5 Upgrades:Citi analyst Itay Michaeli upgraded Tesla (TSLA) to Neutral from Sell with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3623214&headline=TSLA;YUM;ZBH;WMG;VALE;ADSK;MDT;MGA;PRU;SCCO;UNH;CVS;CI;CNC;TA;BURL-Street-Wrap-Todays-Top--Upgrades-Downgrades-Initiations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3623214&headline=TSLA;YUM;ZBH;WMG;VALE;ADSK;MDT;MGA;PRU;SCCO;UNH;CVS;CI;CNC;TA;BURL-Street-Wrap-Todays-Top--Upgrades-Downgrades-Initiations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160123557","content_text":"Tesla upgrade, Autodesk downgrade, and UnitedHealth coverage assumption among today's top calls on Wall StreetTop 5 Upgrades:Citi analyst Itay Michaeli upgraded Tesla (TSLA) to Neutral from Sell with a price target of $176, up from $141.33. The year-to-date pullback in the shares has \"balanced out\" the near-term risk/reward, Michaeli tells investors in a research note.Argus analyst John Staszak upgraded Yum! Brands (YUM) to Buy from Hold with a $142 price target. The analyst expects consumers to opt for the company's relatively inexpensive menu items, looking for Yum! Brands to grow at a \"solid pace.\"Wells Fargo analyst Larry Biegelsen upgraded Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $124, up from $116. The analyst cites consistent execution in 2022; the company's Hips and Knees growing in line with the ortho market this year; strong Q4 ortho trends based on his channel checks that imply upside to Street estimates; and realistic 2023 targets.BofA analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich upgraded Warner Music (WMG) to Neutral from Underperform with a price target of $33, up from $23, after the company reported what she called a \"strong end\" to the fiscal year.Deutsche Bank analyst Liam Fitzpatrick upgraded Vale (VALE) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $20, up from $19. The analyst names Vale his top pick among the iron ore majors. The 30% pullback from the year-to-date high is an opportunity to buy a company \"with sector leading shareholder returns, medium-term growth optionality and low reinvestment needs,\" Fitzpatrick tells investors in a research note.Top 5 Downgrades:Mizuho analyst Matthew Broome downgraded Autodesk (ADSK) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $210, down from $260. The company reported a weaker-than-expected Q3 as growing macro uncertainty impacted contracts with multi-year up-front terms, with customers moving to conserve cash, Broome tells investors in a research note.Oppenheimer analyst Steven Lichtman downgraded Medtronic (MDT) to Perform from Outperform with a price target of $85, down from $106. On Tuesday's Q2 call, management noted supply chain issues took longer than expected to resolve in Q2, impacting the second half of the year ramp, the analyst says. Citi analyst Joanne Wuensch also downgraded Medtronic to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $85, down from $108.Citi analyst Itay Michaeli downgraded Magna (MGA) to Neutral from Buy with an unchanged price target of $62. The risk/reward has \"balanced out\" with the stock reaching the price target, Michaeli tells investors in a research note.Raymond James analyst Wilma Burdis downgraded Prudential Financial (PRU) to Market Perform from Strong Buy without a price target. After meeting with Prudential Chairman and CEO Charles Lowrey, Burdis notes the company does not believe its path forward is linear, as its diverse businesses have growth opportunities in multiple markets.Deutsche Bank analyst Abhi Agarwal downgraded Southern Copper (SCCO) to Sell from Hold with a $45 price target. Southern Copper's updated guidance for 2023 onwards reflects that the company \"is struggling to get its operations on track\" after the COVID-related disruptions, the analyst notes.Top 5 Initiations:Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright assumed coverage of UnitedHealth (UNH) with an Overweight rating with an unchanged price target of $587. In health insurance, \"scale is king\" and UnitedHealth is the largest national insurer with a top three position in almost all insurance end markets, Wright tells investors.  The analyst also assumed coverage of Cigna (CI) with an Overweight rating.Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright assumed coverage of CVS Health (CVS) with an Overweight rating with a price target of $119, down from $124. The CVS \"story has been more complicated of late,\" said Wright, citing \"notable setbacks\" in the surprising decline in MA Star Rating and a PBM contract loss to Centene (CNC), but she remains constructive on the longer-term earnings prospects.Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright assumed coverage of Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) with an Underweight rating with an unchanged price target of $39. While she is forecasting improved profitability in fiscal 2023, she remains concerned on macroeconomic challenges, European headwinds, and potential integration headwinds after VillageMD announced the definitive agreement to acquire Summit Health-CityMD for $8.9B in conjunction with Cigna (CI).Benchmark analyst John Lawrence initiated coverage of TravelCenters (TA) with a Buy rating and $65 price target. New management has made significant improvements to the operation since 2020 that have resulted in a stronger growth profile and expanding EBITDA margins, said Lawrence, who sees TravelCenters being set up to deliver modest revenue growth and expanding adjusted EBITDA margins over the intermediate term.Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton assumed coverage of Burlington Stores (BURL) with an Overweight rating with a price target of $219, up from $175, following the company's Q3 report.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":66,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966759271,"gmtCreate":1669651477393,"gmtModify":1676538219072,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966759271","repostId":"1131965915","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131965915","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1669646552,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131965915?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-28 22:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中概股多数走高，拼多多涨近15%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131965915","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月28日，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨3%，中概股多数走高，拼多多涨近15%，爱奇艺涨超8%，贝壳涨超6%，腾讯音乐涨超5%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>11月28日，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨3%，中概股多数走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨近15%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨超5%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386785a6ffc231efaa52cc57c681f626\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中概股多数走高，拼多多涨近15%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-28 22:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>11月28日，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨3%，中概股多数走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨近15%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨超5%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386785a6ffc231efaa52cc57c681f626\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多","BEKE":"贝壳"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131965915","content_text":"11月28日，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨3%，中概股多数走高，拼多多涨近15%，爱奇艺涨超8%，贝壳涨超6%，腾讯音乐涨超5%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962333476,"gmtCreate":1669720005096,"gmtModify":1676538228418,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962333476","repostId":"1128001713","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968931532,"gmtCreate":1669091150727,"gmtModify":1676538150757,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EW\">$Edwards Lifesciences(EW)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EW\">$Edwards Lifesciences(EW)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Edwards Lifesciences(EW)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ed5939c60d6cc618e5fdc0a2cdd24da","width":"750","height":"1440"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968931532","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944529984,"gmtCreate":1681926435948,"gmtModify":1681926439303,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FRC\">$First Republic Bank(FRC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FRC\">$First Republic Bank(FRC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$First Republic Bank(FRC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944529984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926979770,"gmtCreate":1671458419890,"gmtModify":1676538539448,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926979770","repostId":"2292821659","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926979449,"gmtCreate":1671458404982,"gmtModify":1676538539448,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926979449","repostId":"2292824334","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2292824334","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1671457941,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2292824334?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-19 21:52","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"天然气价格上限谈判继续进行，欧盟力争在寒冬到来前达成协议","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2292824334","media":"智通财经网","summary":"欧盟成员国正竭尽全力就一项限制天然气价格的计划达成一致，在该地区应对前所未有的能源危机之际，这一措施已使各国政府陷入了数月的分歧。据两位知情的欧盟外交官透露，周一在布鲁塞尔举行的能源部长会议正在讨论捷","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>欧盟成员国正竭尽全力就一项限制天然气价格的计划达成一致，在该地区应对前所未有的能源危机之际，这一措施已使各国政府陷入了数月的分歧。据两位知情的欧盟外交官透露，周一在布鲁塞尔举行的能源部长会议正在讨论捷克政府提出的将上限降至180欧元/兆瓦时(合191美元)的最新妥协草案，比欧盟委员会上个月提议的275欧元低了近三分之一。市场干预措施预计将从明年2月初开始生效。</p><p>据称，大多数成员国希望降低欧盟委员会提案的上限，因为这与夏季达到的一些价格水平相比，该提案将毫无意义。但现在的问题是上限将低到什么程度。作为该地区最大的经济体，德国敦促谨慎对待过多的市场干预。</p><p>如果不能达成协议，会议就有可能被推迟到明年，届时冬季将全面来临。因此，各国能源部长们现在就急于采取行动。目前，基准荷兰近月天然气期货价格交投在约110欧元/兆瓦时，然而，任何一场寒潮或供应的进一步中断都有可能会导致价格再次飙升。</p><p>捷克工业部长Jozef  Sikela表示，在欧盟领导人上周表示支持快速达成协议后，他“强烈”相信有可能达成协议。欧盟委员会表示，这一上限举措应该是一种威慑，而不是一种应该积极使用的工具。它的目的不是人为地设定价格，而是防止价格飙升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cea1f0e3f6143c24b3ce0d84eb9485c6\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>事实上，早在今年春季，就有一些成员国提出了干预天然气市场的提议，但这一提议在各国政府之间引发了严重分歧。最近几周，由于担心这可能危及供应安全，德国带头推动采取谨慎措施，而比利时、希腊、意大利和波兰则要求采取更激进的工具，要求将价格上限设定在160欧元。</p><p>“今天，我们必须就一项机制达成一致，以防止欧洲家庭和企业遭受夏季出现的天然气价格飙升，”Sikela在会议前表示，“我们提供的解决方案应该满足这两个群体的需求：要求设限的人，以及担心设限的人。”</p><p>另外，这还关系到欧元区17万亿美元经济的未来。目前，飙升的能源价格已经加剧了欧元区的通胀，并有可能将该地区推入衰退。据估计，这场危机已经使欧洲各国政府的预算捉襟见肘，因为它们已经为企业和消费者提供了超过7000亿欧元的援助。而这些政府仍继续面临着来自选民的压力，要求他们采取更多措施来控制不断飙升的成本，否则将面临反弹的风险。</p><p>“包括我在内，没有人反对低价，”德国经济部长哈贝克表示，他希望能找到解决方案，“但我们需要注意的是，不要因为我们想要好的结果而导致坏的结果。”</p><p><b>寻求妥协</b></p><p>虽然有关价格上限的法规草案要求得到成员国的合格多数支持，但捷克总统一直在努力寻求更广泛的妥协方案。而另一方面，Sikela也没有排除如果他争取所有成员国支持的努力失败时，在周一举行投票以有效克服德国反对的可能性。</p><p>关于天然气价格上限的协议还将带来一系列更广泛的措施，以控制高企的能源成本。今年早些时候，在俄罗斯因俄乌冲突而削减供应后，天然气和电力价格飙升至创纪录水平。</p><p>根据捷克最新的妥协草案，当荷兰产权转让设施(TTF)的近月合同在连续三个工作日内超过180欧元/兆瓦时时，所谓的天然气市场修正机制将生效。该草案还对与预先定义的一篮子液化天然气价格之间的价差大于35欧元给出了规定。超过上限的合同将不被允许执行。</p><p>此外，如果新草案破坏了欧盟的天然气需求削减措施，欧盟委员会可以停止对市场的干预。如果该机制危及供应安全，执行机构也将立即暂停该机制。此前，德国和其他一些国家表示担心，在欧盟寻求替代俄罗斯出口的替代品之际，欧洲的限价限制可能会降低该地区对全球卖家的吸引力。</p><p>马耳他环境、能源和企业部长Miriam Dalli表示：“今天是关键时刻，所以让我们确保所有人都参与进来，达成一个真正可行的妥协方案。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>天然气价格上限谈判继续进行，欧盟力争在寒冬到来前达成协议</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n天然气价格上限谈判继续进行，欧盟力争在寒冬到来前达成协议\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-19 21:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/849876.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>欧盟成员国正竭尽全力就一项限制天然气价格的计划达成一致，在该地区应对前所未有的能源危机之际，这一措施已使各国政府陷入了数月的分歧。据两位知情的欧盟外交官透露，周一在布鲁塞尔举行的能源部长会议正在讨论捷克政府提出的将上限降至180欧元/兆瓦时(合191美元)的最新妥协草案，比欧盟委员会上个月提议的275欧元低了近三分之一。市场干预措施预计将从明年2月初开始生效。据称，大多数成员国希望降低欧盟委员会...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/849876.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e30cfe5645b7e4a87e1527e86da349","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/849876.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2292824334","content_text":"欧盟成员国正竭尽全力就一项限制天然气价格的计划达成一致，在该地区应对前所未有的能源危机之际，这一措施已使各国政府陷入了数月的分歧。据两位知情的欧盟外交官透露，周一在布鲁塞尔举行的能源部长会议正在讨论捷克政府提出的将上限降至180欧元/兆瓦时(合191美元)的最新妥协草案，比欧盟委员会上个月提议的275欧元低了近三分之一。市场干预措施预计将从明年2月初开始生效。据称，大多数成员国希望降低欧盟委员会提案的上限，因为这与夏季达到的一些价格水平相比，该提案将毫无意义。但现在的问题是上限将低到什么程度。作为该地区最大的经济体，德国敦促谨慎对待过多的市场干预。如果不能达成协议，会议就有可能被推迟到明年，届时冬季将全面来临。因此，各国能源部长们现在就急于采取行动。目前，基准荷兰近月天然气期货价格交投在约110欧元/兆瓦时，然而，任何一场寒潮或供应的进一步中断都有可能会导致价格再次飙升。捷克工业部长Jozef  Sikela表示，在欧盟领导人上周表示支持快速达成协议后，他“强烈”相信有可能达成协议。欧盟委员会表示，这一上限举措应该是一种威慑，而不是一种应该积极使用的工具。它的目的不是人为地设定价格，而是防止价格飙升。事实上，早在今年春季，就有一些成员国提出了干预天然气市场的提议，但这一提议在各国政府之间引发了严重分歧。最近几周，由于担心这可能危及供应安全，德国带头推动采取谨慎措施，而比利时、希腊、意大利和波兰则要求采取更激进的工具，要求将价格上限设定在160欧元。“今天，我们必须就一项机制达成一致，以防止欧洲家庭和企业遭受夏季出现的天然气价格飙升，”Sikela在会议前表示，“我们提供的解决方案应该满足这两个群体的需求：要求设限的人，以及担心设限的人。”另外，这还关系到欧元区17万亿美元经济的未来。目前，飙升的能源价格已经加剧了欧元区的通胀，并有可能将该地区推入衰退。据估计，这场危机已经使欧洲各国政府的预算捉襟见肘，因为它们已经为企业和消费者提供了超过7000亿欧元的援助。而这些政府仍继续面临着来自选民的压力，要求他们采取更多措施来控制不断飙升的成本，否则将面临反弹的风险。“包括我在内，没有人反对低价，”德国经济部长哈贝克表示，他希望能找到解决方案，“但我们需要注意的是，不要因为我们想要好的结果而导致坏的结果。”寻求妥协虽然有关价格上限的法规草案要求得到成员国的合格多数支持，但捷克总统一直在努力寻求更广泛的妥协方案。而另一方面，Sikela也没有排除如果他争取所有成员国支持的努力失败时，在周一举行投票以有效克服德国反对的可能性。关于天然气价格上限的协议还将带来一系列更广泛的措施，以控制高企的能源成本。今年早些时候，在俄罗斯因俄乌冲突而削减供应后，天然气和电力价格飙升至创纪录水平。根据捷克最新的妥协草案，当荷兰产权转让设施(TTF)的近月合同在连续三个工作日内超过180欧元/兆瓦时时，所谓的天然气市场修正机制将生效。该草案还对与预先定义的一篮子液化天然气价格之间的价差大于35欧元给出了规定。超过上限的合同将不被允许执行。此外，如果新草案破坏了欧盟的天然气需求削减措施，欧盟委员会可以停止对市场的干预。如果该机制危及供应安全，执行机构也将立即暂停该机制。此前，德国和其他一些国家表示担心，在欧盟寻求替代俄罗斯出口的替代品之际，欧洲的限价限制可能会降低该地区对全球卖家的吸引力。马耳他环境、能源和企业部长Miriam Dalli表示：“今天是关键时刻，所以让我们确保所有人都参与进来，达成一个真正可行的妥协方案。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921080563,"gmtCreate":1670938483253,"gmtModify":1676538462723,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okok","listText":"okok","text":"okok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921080563","repostId":"1124531075","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124531075","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1670936309,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124531075?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-13 20:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前 | 期指拉升，美11月CPI创2021年12月以来最小增幅","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124531075","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国通胀压力进一步放缓。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>重磅数据</b></p><ul><li><b>美国11月CPI同比增速：7.1%，数据持续回落且为2021年12月以来最小增幅。预期：7.3%，前值：7.7%。</b></li><li>美国11月核心CPI同比：6% ， 预期：6.1% ， 前值：6.3%。</li><li>美国11月CPI环比：0.1%，预期：0.3%，前值：0.4%。</li><li>美国11月核心CPI环比：0.2% ， 预期：0.3% ， 前值：0.3%</li></ul><p>机构评美国11月CPI：美国通胀压力进一步放缓，尤其是核心CPI增速放缓，这对美联储来说是个好消息。</p><p><b>利率期货显示，由于11月CPI低于预期，交易员认为美联储12月加息50个基点后，2月加息25个基点的可能性越来越大。</b></p><p><b>CPI数据公布后，美股股指期货集体拉升，美元指数短线下挫逾70点。</b>截至发稿，道指期货涨1.77%，纳指期货涨3.23%，标普500指数期货涨3.11%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d04ed1a2ca7edb7305f4feec0bbab2\" tg-width=\"1399\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fded29d069ea021260caca523774f948\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ac42d06bcc7f0dade988585cf7f6364\" tg-width=\"1379\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>中概股盘前走势</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YI\">1药网</a>涨约7%。1药网回应网售<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>新冠口服药一事，公司表示：并非网售辉瑞的Paxlovid药品，而是按照国务院防控机制办公室2022年12月12日发布的《关于做好新冠肺互联网医疗服务的通知》，通过互联网医院为符合条件的患者提供诊疗和用药服务。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a433297136167ccc7d04190bdf9551e9\" tg-width=\"1372\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>重要美股盘前走势</b></p><p>法拉第未来续涨近21%，该股周一大幅收涨超55%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fabeb56055b432b775140dc9b5b6417\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Moderna涨超8%，公司此前宣布与默克制药合作的mRNA癌症疫苗在中期临床试验中帮助患者降低了手术后黑色素瘤复发或由黑色素瘤导致死亡的风险。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>涨近3%，甲骨文2023财年Q2营收同比增长18%至122.75亿美元，净利润17.41亿美元，同比扭亏为盈但不及市场预期。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>涨约2%，美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">联合大陆航空</a>宣布将购买多达200架新波音宽体飞机，其中包括100架787梦幻客机的确定订单。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RTX\">雷神技术公司</a>涨0.2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RTN\">雷神</a>董事会已授权一项最高达60亿美元的股票回购计划，新的授权将取代公司2021年12月7日批准的计划。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">礼来</a>跌1.72%，公司预计2023年收入为303亿-308亿美元，每股收益为7.65-7.85美元；预计2023年将没有新冠中和抗体相关的收入。</p><p>美股大型科技股盘前走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>涨近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨5.4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>涨约4.2%，Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>涨约3.6%。</p><p><b>大宗商品</b></p><p>受美国11月CPI数据影响，国际油价、金价盘中直线拉升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e5af6bd2821653227eda09d3fa001ab\" tg-width=\"1385\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fecbe691af078383db655a3382090f5\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前 | 期指拉升，美11月CPI创2021年12月以来最小增幅</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前 | 期指拉升，美11月CPI创2021年12月以来最小增幅\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-13 20:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b>重磅数据</b></p><ul><li><b>美国11月CPI同比增速：7.1%，数据持续回落且为2021年12月以来最小增幅。预期：7.3%，前值：7.7%。</b></li><li>美国11月核心CPI同比：6% ， 预期：6.1% ， 前值：6.3%。</li><li>美国11月CPI环比：0.1%，预期：0.3%，前值：0.4%。</li><li>美国11月核心CPI环比：0.2% ， 预期：0.3% ， 前值：0.3%</li></ul><p>机构评美国11月CPI：美国通胀压力进一步放缓，尤其是核心CPI增速放缓，这对美联储来说是个好消息。</p><p><b>利率期货显示，由于11月CPI低于预期，交易员认为美联储12月加息50个基点后，2月加息25个基点的可能性越来越大。</b></p><p><b>CPI数据公布后，美股股指期货集体拉升，美元指数短线下挫逾70点。</b>截至发稿，道指期货涨1.77%，纳指期货涨3.23%，标普500指数期货涨3.11%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d04ed1a2ca7edb7305f4feec0bbab2\" tg-width=\"1399\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fded29d069ea021260caca523774f948\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ac42d06bcc7f0dade988585cf7f6364\" tg-width=\"1379\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>中概股盘前走势</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YI\">1药网</a>涨约7%。1药网回应网售<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>新冠口服药一事，公司表示：并非网售辉瑞的Paxlovid药品，而是按照国务院防控机制办公室2022年12月12日发布的《关于做好新冠肺互联网医疗服务的通知》，通过互联网医院为符合条件的患者提供诊疗和用药服务。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a433297136167ccc7d04190bdf9551e9\" tg-width=\"1372\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>重要美股盘前走势</b></p><p>法拉第未来续涨近21%，该股周一大幅收涨超55%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fabeb56055b432b775140dc9b5b6417\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Moderna涨超8%，公司此前宣布与默克制药合作的mRNA癌症疫苗在中期临床试验中帮助患者降低了手术后黑色素瘤复发或由黑色素瘤导致死亡的风险。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>涨近3%，甲骨文2023财年Q2营收同比增长18%至122.75亿美元，净利润17.41亿美元，同比扭亏为盈但不及市场预期。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>涨约2%，美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">联合大陆航空</a>宣布将购买多达200架新波音宽体飞机，其中包括100架787梦幻客机的确定订单。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RTX\">雷神技术公司</a>涨0.2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RTN\">雷神</a>董事会已授权一项最高达60亿美元的股票回购计划，新的授权将取代公司2021年12月7日批准的计划。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">礼来</a>跌1.72%，公司预计2023年收入为303亿-308亿美元，每股收益为7.65-7.85美元；预计2023年将没有新冠中和抗体相关的收入。</p><p>美股大型科技股盘前走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>涨近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨5.4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>涨约4.2%，Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>涨约3.6%。</p><p><b>大宗商品</b></p><p>受美国11月CPI数据影响，国际油价、金价盘中直线拉升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e5af6bd2821653227eda09d3fa001ab\" tg-width=\"1385\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fecbe691af078383db655a3382090f5\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124531075","content_text":"重磅数据美国11月CPI同比增速：7.1%，数据持续回落且为2021年12月以来最小增幅。预期：7.3%，前值：7.7%。美国11月核心CPI同比：6% ， 预期：6.1% ， 前值：6.3%。美国11月CPI环比：0.1%，预期：0.3%，前值：0.4%。美国11月核心CPI环比：0.2% ， 预期：0.3% ， 前值：0.3%机构评美国11月CPI：美国通胀压力进一步放缓，尤其是核心CPI增速放缓，这对美联储来说是个好消息。利率期货显示，由于11月CPI低于预期，交易员认为美联储12月加息50个基点后，2月加息25个基点的可能性越来越大。CPI数据公布后，美股股指期货集体拉升，美元指数短线下挫逾70点。截至发稿，道指期货涨1.77%，纳指期货涨3.23%，标普500指数期货涨3.11%。中概股盘前走势1药网涨约7%。1药网回应网售辉瑞新冠口服药一事，公司表示：并非网售辉瑞的Paxlovid药品，而是按照国务院防控机制办公室2022年12月12日发布的《关于做好新冠肺互联网医疗服务的通知》，通过互联网医院为符合条件的患者提供诊疗和用药服务。重要美股盘前走势法拉第未来续涨近21%，该股周一大幅收涨超55%。Moderna涨超8%，公司此前宣布与默克制药合作的mRNA癌症疫苗在中期临床试验中帮助患者降低了手术后黑色素瘤复发或由黑色素瘤导致死亡的风险。甲骨文涨近3%，甲骨文2023财年Q2营收同比增长18%至122.75亿美元，净利润17.41亿美元，同比扭亏为盈但不及市场预期。波音涨约2%，美国联合大陆航空宣布将购买多达200架新波音宽体飞机，其中包括100架787梦幻客机的确定订单。雷神技术公司涨0.2%，雷神董事会已授权一项最高达60亿美元的股票回购计划，新的授权将取代公司2021年12月7日批准的计划。礼来跌1.72%，公司预计2023年收入为303亿-308亿美元，每股收益为7.65-7.85美元；预计2023年将没有新冠中和抗体相关的收入。美股大型科技股盘前走高，英伟达涨近6%，特斯拉涨5.4%，亚马逊、微软涨约4.2%，Alphabet、苹果涨约3.6%。大宗商品受美国11月CPI数据影响，国际油价、金价盘中直线拉升。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923773558,"gmtCreate":1670925903475,"gmtModify":1676538460773,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$台积电(TSM)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923773558","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920269809,"gmtCreate":1670504719401,"gmtModify":1676538381544,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tiger trade is a good platform","listText":"tiger trade is a good platform","text":"tiger trade is a good platform","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920269809","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967182209,"gmtCreate":1670284706602,"gmtModify":1676538335760,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967182209","repostId":"2289684192","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966759618,"gmtCreate":1669651469135,"gmtModify":1676538219072,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966759618","repostId":"1156829174","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156829174","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"巴伦周刊","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1669648184,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156829174?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-28 23:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"熊市再见？美股可能已走过最糟糕的时期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156829174","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"在美国国债市场持续走强的推动下，年底前可能还会出现更多上涨。有观点认为，当美联储停止加息时股市会上涨，但实际上是当债券收益率停止上升时，股市就会上涨。美股最糟糕的时期可能已经过去了。主要股指延续了秋季","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>在美国国债市场持续走强的推动下，年底前可能还会出现更多上涨。</blockquote><p>有观点认为，当美联储停止加息时股市会上涨，但实际上是当债券收益率停止上升时，股市就会上涨。</p><p>美股最糟糕的时期可能已经过去了。主要股指延续了秋季的涨势，在美国国债市场持续走强的推动下，年底前可能还会出现更多上涨。</p><p>上周标普500指数累计上涨1.5%，至4026点，道指上涨1.8%，至34347点，纳指上涨0.7%，至11226.36点。今年迄今标普500指数累计跌幅收窄至15.5%，道指累计跌幅收窄至5.5%，以科技股为主的纳指跌幅依然较大，为28%。</p><p>到今年年底，道指可能会实现累计上涨，因为该指数是一只价格加权指数，雪佛龙(CVX)、安进(AMGN)、Travelers (TRV)和默克(MRK)等权重较大的成分股的股价均在100美元以上，今年以来涨幅可观，给道指带来了提振。</p><p>Leuthold Group首席策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)说：“我们已经看到了好几次加息，糟糕的通胀数据，令人失望的科技公司财报和长期债券收益率上升，虽然坏消息满天飞，但标普500指数目前水平与5月份相同。”</p><p>有一种观点认为美股将经历“失去的十年”，即股市在2020年代的表现会很糟糕，但保尔森不这么认为，美国国债收益率并没有因为部分美联储官员的鹰派言论上升是他持此观点的原因之一。上周，10年期美国国债收益率降至3.68%，继续从10月峰值下降，预计未来几周抵押贷款利率将从最近6.6%左右的水平降至6%。</p><p>保尔森说：“10年期美国国债未理会美联储的表态，这种现象常见于紧缩周期处于尾声时。有一种观点认为，当美联储停止加息时，股市就会上涨，但实际上是当债券收益率停止上升时，股市就会上涨。”</p><p>保尔森预计标普500指数将突破1月初创下的近4800点的历史高点，明年将达到5000点，涨幅近25%。按2023年预期收益计算，该指数目前市盈率为17倍，处于合理水平。</p><p>保尔森说，在牛市开始时，股票通常会先于公司盈利上涨。他对股市的乐观看法主要出于几个因素，其中包括通货膨胀率下降和消费者和小企业信心增强。从债券市场的走势来看，市场预计未来五年的年通胀率仅为2.5%，低于近期的8%左右。如果债券市场的看法是正确的，那么股市可能会大幅走高。</p><p>今年有关通胀和即将到来的经济衰退的担忧预计将在2023年见顶，许多华尔街人士预计，明年上半年经济可能陷入低迷，但对投资者来说，在每个市场都可以找到提供保护、甚至获利的机会。</p><p>富国银行(Wells Fargo)高级全球市场策略师萨米尔·萨马纳(Sameer Samana)建议投资者把握住最近股市和固定收益市场反弹的机会。萨马纳认为，美联储今年快速加息后，储户终于可以赚到一些利息，投资者现在可以存放一部分现金。</p><p>除了现金，对于长期投资者来说现在也有很多买入机会。</p><p>Wolfe Research首席策略师克里斯·塞涅克(Chris Senyek)建议关注医疗保健和消费必需品等防御性行业。除了能提供下行保护外，投资者还能获得股息。交易所交易基金Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV)今年下跌了3%，收益率为1.5%，Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP)下跌了1%，收益率为2.5%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>熊市再见？美股可能已走过最糟糕的时期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n熊市再见？美股可能已走过最糟糕的时期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">巴伦周刊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-28 23:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>在美国国债市场持续走强的推动下，年底前可能还会出现更多上涨。</blockquote><p>有观点认为，当美联储停止加息时股市会上涨，但实际上是当债券收益率停止上升时，股市就会上涨。</p><p>美股最糟糕的时期可能已经过去了。主要股指延续了秋季的涨势，在美国国债市场持续走强的推动下，年底前可能还会出现更多上涨。</p><p>上周标普500指数累计上涨1.5%，至4026点，道指上涨1.8%，至34347点，纳指上涨0.7%，至11226.36点。今年迄今标普500指数累计跌幅收窄至15.5%，道指累计跌幅收窄至5.5%，以科技股为主的纳指跌幅依然较大，为28%。</p><p>到今年年底，道指可能会实现累计上涨，因为该指数是一只价格加权指数，雪佛龙(CVX)、安进(AMGN)、Travelers (TRV)和默克(MRK)等权重较大的成分股的股价均在100美元以上，今年以来涨幅可观，给道指带来了提振。</p><p>Leuthold Group首席策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)说：“我们已经看到了好几次加息，糟糕的通胀数据，令人失望的科技公司财报和长期债券收益率上升，虽然坏消息满天飞，但标普500指数目前水平与5月份相同。”</p><p>有一种观点认为美股将经历“失去的十年”，即股市在2020年代的表现会很糟糕，但保尔森不这么认为，美国国债收益率并没有因为部分美联储官员的鹰派言论上升是他持此观点的原因之一。上周，10年期美国国债收益率降至3.68%，继续从10月峰值下降，预计未来几周抵押贷款利率将从最近6.6%左右的水平降至6%。</p><p>保尔森说：“10年期美国国债未理会美联储的表态，这种现象常见于紧缩周期处于尾声时。有一种观点认为，当美联储停止加息时，股市就会上涨，但实际上是当债券收益率停止上升时，股市就会上涨。”</p><p>保尔森预计标普500指数将突破1月初创下的近4800点的历史高点，明年将达到5000点，涨幅近25%。按2023年预期收益计算，该指数目前市盈率为17倍，处于合理水平。</p><p>保尔森说，在牛市开始时，股票通常会先于公司盈利上涨。他对股市的乐观看法主要出于几个因素，其中包括通货膨胀率下降和消费者和小企业信心增强。从债券市场的走势来看，市场预计未来五年的年通胀率仅为2.5%，低于近期的8%左右。如果债券市场的看法是正确的，那么股市可能会大幅走高。</p><p>今年有关通胀和即将到来的经济衰退的担忧预计将在2023年见顶，许多华尔街人士预计，明年上半年经济可能陷入低迷，但对投资者来说，在每个市场都可以找到提供保护、甚至获利的机会。</p><p>富国银行(Wells Fargo)高级全球市场策略师萨米尔·萨马纳(Sameer Samana)建议投资者把握住最近股市和固定收益市场反弹的机会。萨马纳认为，美联储今年快速加息后，储户终于可以赚到一些利息，投资者现在可以存放一部分现金。</p><p>除了现金，对于长期投资者来说现在也有很多买入机会。</p><p>Wolfe Research首席策略师克里斯·塞涅克(Chris Senyek)建议关注医疗保健和消费必需品等防御性行业。除了能提供下行保护外，投资者还能获得股息。交易所交易基金Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV)今年下跌了3%，收益率为1.5%，Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP)下跌了1%，收益率为2.5%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156829174","content_text":"在美国国债市场持续走强的推动下，年底前可能还会出现更多上涨。有观点认为，当美联储停止加息时股市会上涨，但实际上是当债券收益率停止上升时，股市就会上涨。美股最糟糕的时期可能已经过去了。主要股指延续了秋季的涨势，在美国国债市场持续走强的推动下，年底前可能还会出现更多上涨。上周标普500指数累计上涨1.5%，至4026点，道指上涨1.8%，至34347点，纳指上涨0.7%，至11226.36点。今年迄今标普500指数累计跌幅收窄至15.5%，道指累计跌幅收窄至5.5%，以科技股为主的纳指跌幅依然较大，为28%。到今年年底，道指可能会实现累计上涨，因为该指数是一只价格加权指数，雪佛龙(CVX)、安进(AMGN)、Travelers (TRV)和默克(MRK)等权重较大的成分股的股价均在100美元以上，今年以来涨幅可观，给道指带来了提振。Leuthold Group首席策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)说：“我们已经看到了好几次加息，糟糕的通胀数据，令人失望的科技公司财报和长期债券收益率上升，虽然坏消息满天飞，但标普500指数目前水平与5月份相同。”有一种观点认为美股将经历“失去的十年”，即股市在2020年代的表现会很糟糕，但保尔森不这么认为，美国国债收益率并没有因为部分美联储官员的鹰派言论上升是他持此观点的原因之一。上周，10年期美国国债收益率降至3.68%，继续从10月峰值下降，预计未来几周抵押贷款利率将从最近6.6%左右的水平降至6%。保尔森说：“10年期美国国债未理会美联储的表态，这种现象常见于紧缩周期处于尾声时。有一种观点认为，当美联储停止加息时，股市就会上涨，但实际上是当债券收益率停止上升时，股市就会上涨。”保尔森预计标普500指数将突破1月初创下的近4800点的历史高点，明年将达到5000点，涨幅近25%。按2023年预期收益计算，该指数目前市盈率为17倍，处于合理水平。保尔森说，在牛市开始时，股票通常会先于公司盈利上涨。他对股市的乐观看法主要出于几个因素，其中包括通货膨胀率下降和消费者和小企业信心增强。从债券市场的走势来看，市场预计未来五年的年通胀率仅为2.5%，低于近期的8%左右。如果债券市场的看法是正确的，那么股市可能会大幅走高。今年有关通胀和即将到来的经济衰退的担忧预计将在2023年见顶，许多华尔街人士预计，明年上半年经济可能陷入低迷，但对投资者来说，在每个市场都可以找到提供保护、甚至获利的机会。富国银行(Wells Fargo)高级全球市场策略师萨米尔·萨马纳(Sameer Samana)建议投资者把握住最近股市和固定收益市场反弹的机会。萨马纳认为，美联储今年快速加息后，储户终于可以赚到一些利息，投资者现在可以存放一部分现金。除了现金，对于长期投资者来说现在也有很多买入机会。Wolfe Research首席策略师克里斯·塞涅克(Chris Senyek)建议关注医疗保健和消费必需品等防御性行业。除了能提供下行保护外，投资者还能获得股息。交易所交易基金Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV)今年下跌了3%，收益率为1.5%，Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP)下跌了1%，收益率为2.5%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":91,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966176071,"gmtCreate":1669463574493,"gmtModify":1676538199355,"author":{"id":"4093819766986720","authorId":"4093819766986720","name":"tan111579","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5aa80af3944be1a500709558d9a7ba4b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093819766986720","idStr":"4093819766986720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EW\">$爱德华兹(EW)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a 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