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2024-09-22

Looks great n surperb!

Stock Track | Applied Materials Soars on Strong AI Outlook and Robust Q3 Results

2024-09-14

Wow good reading. The magic is 0.5. Or 0.25?

The Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small?

2024-09-14

Well researched n easy to understand. Great

Apple: The Pre-Order Data Will Tell Us The Truth Soon

2024-06-15

If he can steer the company forward then ok for his compensation package.

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2024-06-15

Wow likely'all three!

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-03-14

Sounds good!

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-01-04

Seems it's just standard message

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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great n surperb!&nbsp;","listText":"Looks great n surperb!&nbsp;","text":"Looks great n surperb!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351928486813736","repostId":"1136457088","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136457088","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Track stock‘s movements and relevant news","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Stock Track","id":"1086803395","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1726752804,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136457088?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-19 21:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Track | Applied Materials Soars on Strong AI Outlook and Robust Q3 Results","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136457088","media":"Stock Track","summary":"Shares of Applied Materials Inc.  surged by 5.06% on Wednesday, September 19, 2024, driven by the company's strong positioning in the AI industry and its robust financial performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2024.According to a report by Goldman Sachs, Applied Materials ranks among the top buzzing AI stocks, reflecting its crucial role in providing equipment, services, and software for the semiconductor industry, which is essential for the development of AI technologies. The rise of AI, In","content":"<p>Shares of Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) surged by 5.06% on Wednesday, September 19, 2024, driven by the company's strong positioning in the AI industry and its robust financial performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2024.</p>\n\n<p>According to a report by Goldman Sachs, Applied Materials ranks among the top buzzing AI stocks, reflecting its crucial role in providing equipment, services, and software for the semiconductor industry, which is essential for the development of AI technologies. The rise of AI, Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, autonomous vehicles, and other emerging technologies is fueling multi-trillion-dollar shifts in the semiconductor market, creating significant growth opportunities for Applied Materials.</p>\n\n<p>Furthermore, Applied Materials reported impressive third-quarter fiscal 2024 financial results that exceeded market expectations. The company's earnings per share came in at $2.12, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.02, while revenue reached over $6.7 billion, exceeding the estimated $6.67 billion. Gary Dickerson, the company's CEO, stated that Applied Materials is delivering strong results in 2024, with record revenues in the fiscal third quarter and earnings towards the high end of the guided range.</p>","source":"ai_movement_en","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Track | Applied Materials Soars on Strong AI Outlook and Robust Q3 Results</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Track | Applied Materials Soars on Strong AI Outlook and Robust Q3 Results\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086803395\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Stock Track </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-19 21:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) surged by 5.06% on Wednesday, September 19, 2024, driven by the company's strong positioning in the AI industry and its robust financial performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2024.</p>\n\n<p>According to a report by Goldman Sachs, Applied Materials ranks among the top buzzing AI stocks, reflecting its crucial role in providing equipment, services, and software for the semiconductor industry, which is essential for the development of AI technologies. The rise of AI, Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, autonomous vehicles, and other emerging technologies is fueling multi-trillion-dollar shifts in the semiconductor market, creating significant growth opportunities for Applied Materials.</p>\n\n<p>Furthermore, Applied Materials reported impressive third-quarter fiscal 2024 financial results that exceeded market expectations. The company's earnings per share came in at $2.12, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.02, while revenue reached over $6.7 billion, exceeding the estimated $6.67 billion. Gary Dickerson, the company's CEO, stated that Applied Materials is delivering strong results in 2024, with record revenues in the fiscal third quarter and earnings towards the high end of the guided range.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMAT":"应用材料"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136457088","content_text":"Shares of Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) surged by 5.06% on Wednesday, September 19, 2024, driven by the company's strong positioning in the AI industry and its robust financial performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2024.\nAccording to a report by Goldman Sachs, Applied Materials ranks among the top buzzing AI stocks, reflecting its crucial role in providing equipment, services, and software for the semiconductor industry, which is essential for the development of AI technologies. The rise of AI, Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, autonomous vehicles, and other emerging technologies is fueling multi-trillion-dollar shifts in the semiconductor market, creating significant growth opportunities for Applied Materials.\nFurthermore, Applied Materials reported impressive third-quarter fiscal 2024 financial results that exceeded market expectations. The company's earnings per share came in at $2.12, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.02, while revenue reached over $6.7 billion, exceeding the estimated $6.67 billion. Gary Dickerson, the company's CEO, stated that Applied Materials is delivering strong results in 2024, with record revenues in the fiscal third quarter and earnings towards the high end of the guided range.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349120447058160,"gmtCreate":1726264741627,"gmtModify":1726264747511,"author":{"id":"4100655058123160","authorId":"4100655058123160","name":"teegem63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac15943f10bad1c2c0ec91d5d8a2bd22","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100655058123160","authorIdStr":"4100655058123160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow good reading. The magic is 0.5. Or 0.25?","listText":"Wow good reading. The magic is 0.5. Or 0.25?","text":"Wow good reading. The magic is 0.5. Or 0.25?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349120447058160","repostId":"2467978512","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2467978512","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1726192800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2467978512?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2467978512","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"That the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week is all but settled. But how much is shaping up to be a close call.Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a difficult decision as the central bank prepares to cut interest rates next week: Start small or begin big?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>That the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week is all but settled. But how much is shaping up to be a close call.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3f1571d3f9f6bc3717faa9a13d491c4\" alt=\"Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.\" title=\"Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"1278\"/><span>Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a difficult decision as the central bank prepares to cut interest rates next week: Start small or begin big?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The central bank is set to reduce rates for the first time since 2020 at its meeting on Sept. 17-18. Because officials have signaled greater confidence that they can make multiple rate cuts over the next several months, they are confronting questions over whether to cut by a traditional 0.25 percentage point or by a larger 0.5 point.</p><p>Powell kept all his options on the table in a speech last month in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that surprised some of his colleagues with its unambiguous call to turn attention to incipient risks in the jobs market. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks,” he said then.</p><p>Officials last year raised their benchmark rate to around 5.3%, a two-decade high, and will have held it at that level for the last 14 months to combat inflation, which has declined notably. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/856ee4109fb2bbde2206950823e7025b\" alt=\"Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.\" title=\"Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"/><span>Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">They are nervous about keeping interest rates too high for too long amid evidence that higher borrowing costs are working as intended to slow inflation by cooling spending, investment and hiring. They don’t want to let slip through their grasp a soft landing, in which inflation falls without a serious jump in joblessness. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Answers to the tactical question over how fast to go could reveal clues about the Fed’s broader strategy. The amount of cuts over the next few months “is going to be a lot more important than whether the first move is 25 or 50, which I think is a close call,” said Jon Faust, who served until earlier this year as a senior adviser to Powell.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Recent economic data have been mixed. Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week, sending market expectations of a smaller cut to around 85%, according to CME Group. But a separate report Thursday signaled that underlying prices in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge were likely to have been considerably milder in August, keeping the door open for the Fed to focus on preventing labor-market softening.</p><p>Meanwhile, hiring in June and July was weaker than initially reported, but payroll growth improved in August. Layoffs have been low. Claims for jobless benefits last week stood at roughly the same low level of one year ago, the Labor Department said Thursday.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a29affe7b94909e2e3a7195ed518053e\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"704\"/></p><p>Quarterly economic projections to be released at next week’s meeting could further complicate matters. Those projections will show how many rate cuts officials expect this year. The Fed has three meetings remaining this year: next week, and in November and December.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Those projections aren’t the product of a committee debate but could be as important to investors as the size of the rate reduction, especially if officials opt for the smaller cut. Because markets expect the Fed to cut rates by more than 100 basis points this year, projections that show fewer cuts risk a market pullback that tightens financial conditions, sending up borrowing costs at the very moment the Fed is reducing short-term rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed normally prefers to move in increments of 0.25 point, or 25 basis points, because smaller adjustments give them more time to study the effect of their policy changes. Some officials have suggested they would rather speed up the pace once the economy looks like it is weakening further.</p><p>Alternatively, officials could conclude that if they expect a 50-basis-point move is likely in November or December, they ought to make that move now, when rates are farthest from their ultimate destination.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c1b79c953091ecda04fb3d65de1a5166\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"706\"/></p><p>The case for starting smaller presumes the economy is fundamentally fine, according to current and former officials. They say starting with a 50-basis-point cut could communicate greater alarm about the economy or lead markets to anticipate a faster pace of rate cuts, which in turn might ignite market rallies that make it harder to finish the inflation fight.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A related worry: A larger cut would lead markets to mistakenly assume the Fed plans to cut rates by the same amount at meetings in November and December. It “will set up an expectation that they would go very rapidly” to a neutral level of interest rates designed to neither spur nor slow growth, said James Bullard, who was president of the St. Louis Fed from 2008 to 2023, in an interview last week.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Given the Fed’s preference to build a broad consensus and the challenge of explaining a larger rate cut right before the election, starting with a 0.25-point cut offers the path of least resistance. “25 is easy at the start,” said Esther George, who was Kansas City Fed president from 2011 until 2023. “You could say, ‘We can either keep this up for a while, or if it looks like things are weaker, we can go harder.’”</p><p>The case for starting with a larger cut centers on taking out insurance against the risk the economy will slow down more under the weight of past increases at a time when officials no longer think such a slowdown is necessary to complete the job of bringing inflation back to their 2% goal.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/34755cc40846c0b301740ff2ab1a01b3\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"708\"/></p><p>With inflation cooling as the Fed holds nominal rates steady, inflation-adjusted or real rates are as high as they have been since the central bank started hiking rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Officials need to consider whether “you want to be the most restrictive you’ve been in the entire rate-tightening cycle at a moment when there’s a pretty clear path to 2% inflation and the unemployment rate is above” where most Fed officials expected it would go this year, said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in an interview last week.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee has usually cut in larger increments when financial markets are showing greater alarm over the economic outlook, as was the case at the start of 2001 and in 2007 during the early innings of the global financial crises.</p><p>“I don’t think we’re in a spot that really shouts out for a pre-emptive 50,” said Faust, a fellow at the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University. “But my preference would be slightly toward starting with 50. And I still think there’s a reasonable chance that the FOMC might get there as well.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Faust said he thinks the Fed could manage concerns about spooking investors with a larger cut by providing “a lot of language around it that makes it not scary.” He added, “It wouldn’t need to be a sign of worry.”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6f032e3aebfb82cd151a02410d76d7d8\" alt=\"Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.\" title=\"Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"/><span>Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Faust said he thinks several officials will project 100 basis points in cuts this year. If that is the case, leading off with a 25-basis-point cut risks raising awkward questions over why officials expect to deliver a larger rate cut later this year but didn’t lead with it.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If the risks are truly balanced between higher inflation and weaker labor market conditions, as Fed officials have said they believe is the case, then the Fed should want rates much closer to a neutral level, said William Dudley, who served as New York Fed president from 2009 to 2018. Given that all Fed officials believe that rate is below 4%, it doesn’t make sense to move in 25-basis-point increments. “Logic says they should be going faster,” he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">For those reasons, George said she would find it hard to oppose a larger cut right now. “You can make a very good case for 50, to say, ‘Just as we went quickly’” to raise rates above a neutral setting, “we’re now well above it, and so we can take a couple of bites at this apple.”</p><p>Last week’s jobs report wasn’t particularly reassuring, said Dudley, because the unemployment rate has climbed by 0.5 percentage point since the start of the year. Normally, when the unemployment rate rises by a little bit, it tends to continue rising—and by a lot.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The housing market has been soft in recent months, and while the construction sector added jobs in August, declines in new residential construction point to another source of potential weakness ahead for hiring.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Businesses and financial companies that cater to low- and middle-income consumers are pointing to signs of greater strain, and the personal savings rate fell to 2.9% in July, near its lowest level since 2007.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While the economy has been growing at a reasonably solid pace this year, “we have supported this growth by doing less and less saving, and more and more borrowing. That’s not sustainable,” said Donald Kohn, a former Fed vice chair.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We are at a point where you might say, ‘I could go either way—25 or 50,’ but I think the risk management has shifted to the labor market and favors doing 50,” he said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-13 10:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>That the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week is all but settled. But how much is shaping up to be a close call.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3f1571d3f9f6bc3717faa9a13d491c4\" alt=\"Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.\" title=\"Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"1278\"/><span>Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a difficult decision as the central bank prepares to cut interest rates next week: Start small or begin big?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The central bank is set to reduce rates for the first time since 2020 at its meeting on Sept. 17-18. Because officials have signaled greater confidence that they can make multiple rate cuts over the next several months, they are confronting questions over whether to cut by a traditional 0.25 percentage point or by a larger 0.5 point.</p><p>Powell kept all his options on the table in a speech last month in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that surprised some of his colleagues with its unambiguous call to turn attention to incipient risks in the jobs market. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks,” he said then.</p><p>Officials last year raised their benchmark rate to around 5.3%, a two-decade high, and will have held it at that level for the last 14 months to combat inflation, which has declined notably. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/856ee4109fb2bbde2206950823e7025b\" alt=\"Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.\" title=\"Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"/><span>Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">They are nervous about keeping interest rates too high for too long amid evidence that higher borrowing costs are working as intended to slow inflation by cooling spending, investment and hiring. They don’t want to let slip through their grasp a soft landing, in which inflation falls without a serious jump in joblessness. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Answers to the tactical question over how fast to go could reveal clues about the Fed’s broader strategy. The amount of cuts over the next few months “is going to be a lot more important than whether the first move is 25 or 50, which I think is a close call,” said Jon Faust, who served until earlier this year as a senior adviser to Powell.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Recent economic data have been mixed. Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week, sending market expectations of a smaller cut to around 85%, according to CME Group. But a separate report Thursday signaled that underlying prices in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge were likely to have been considerably milder in August, keeping the door open for the Fed to focus on preventing labor-market softening.</p><p>Meanwhile, hiring in June and July was weaker than initially reported, but payroll growth improved in August. Layoffs have been low. Claims for jobless benefits last week stood at roughly the same low level of one year ago, the Labor Department said Thursday.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a29affe7b94909e2e3a7195ed518053e\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"704\"/></p><p>Quarterly economic projections to be released at next week’s meeting could further complicate matters. Those projections will show how many rate cuts officials expect this year. The Fed has three meetings remaining this year: next week, and in November and December.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Those projections aren’t the product of a committee debate but could be as important to investors as the size of the rate reduction, especially if officials opt for the smaller cut. Because markets expect the Fed to cut rates by more than 100 basis points this year, projections that show fewer cuts risk a market pullback that tightens financial conditions, sending up borrowing costs at the very moment the Fed is reducing short-term rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed normally prefers to move in increments of 0.25 point, or 25 basis points, because smaller adjustments give them more time to study the effect of their policy changes. Some officials have suggested they would rather speed up the pace once the economy looks like it is weakening further.</p><p>Alternatively, officials could conclude that if they expect a 50-basis-point move is likely in November or December, they ought to make that move now, when rates are farthest from their ultimate destination.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c1b79c953091ecda04fb3d65de1a5166\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"706\"/></p><p>The case for starting smaller presumes the economy is fundamentally fine, according to current and former officials. They say starting with a 50-basis-point cut could communicate greater alarm about the economy or lead markets to anticipate a faster pace of rate cuts, which in turn might ignite market rallies that make it harder to finish the inflation fight.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A related worry: A larger cut would lead markets to mistakenly assume the Fed plans to cut rates by the same amount at meetings in November and December. It “will set up an expectation that they would go very rapidly” to a neutral level of interest rates designed to neither spur nor slow growth, said James Bullard, who was president of the St. Louis Fed from 2008 to 2023, in an interview last week.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Given the Fed’s preference to build a broad consensus and the challenge of explaining a larger rate cut right before the election, starting with a 0.25-point cut offers the path of least resistance. “25 is easy at the start,” said Esther George, who was Kansas City Fed president from 2011 until 2023. “You could say, ‘We can either keep this up for a while, or if it looks like things are weaker, we can go harder.’”</p><p>The case for starting with a larger cut centers on taking out insurance against the risk the economy will slow down more under the weight of past increases at a time when officials no longer think such a slowdown is necessary to complete the job of bringing inflation back to their 2% goal.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/34755cc40846c0b301740ff2ab1a01b3\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"708\"/></p><p>With inflation cooling as the Fed holds nominal rates steady, inflation-adjusted or real rates are as high as they have been since the central bank started hiking rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Officials need to consider whether “you want to be the most restrictive you’ve been in the entire rate-tightening cycle at a moment when there’s a pretty clear path to 2% inflation and the unemployment rate is above” where most Fed officials expected it would go this year, said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in an interview last week.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee has usually cut in larger increments when financial markets are showing greater alarm over the economic outlook, as was the case at the start of 2001 and in 2007 during the early innings of the global financial crises.</p><p>“I don’t think we’re in a spot that really shouts out for a pre-emptive 50,” said Faust, a fellow at the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University. “But my preference would be slightly toward starting with 50. And I still think there’s a reasonable chance that the FOMC might get there as well.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Faust said he thinks the Fed could manage concerns about spooking investors with a larger cut by providing “a lot of language around it that makes it not scary.” He added, “It wouldn’t need to be a sign of worry.”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6f032e3aebfb82cd151a02410d76d7d8\" alt=\"Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.\" title=\"Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"/><span>Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Faust said he thinks several officials will project 100 basis points in cuts this year. If that is the case, leading off with a 25-basis-point cut risks raising awkward questions over why officials expect to deliver a larger rate cut later this year but didn’t lead with it.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If the risks are truly balanced between higher inflation and weaker labor market conditions, as Fed officials have said they believe is the case, then the Fed should want rates much closer to a neutral level, said William Dudley, who served as New York Fed president from 2009 to 2018. Given that all Fed officials believe that rate is below 4%, it doesn’t make sense to move in 25-basis-point increments. “Logic says they should be going faster,” he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">For those reasons, George said she would find it hard to oppose a larger cut right now. “You can make a very good case for 50, to say, ‘Just as we went quickly’” to raise rates above a neutral setting, “we’re now well above it, and so we can take a couple of bites at this apple.”</p><p>Last week’s jobs report wasn’t particularly reassuring, said Dudley, because the unemployment rate has climbed by 0.5 percentage point since the start of the year. Normally, when the unemployment rate rises by a little bit, it tends to continue rising—and by a lot.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The housing market has been soft in recent months, and while the construction sector added jobs in August, declines in new residential construction point to another source of potential weakness ahead for hiring.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Businesses and financial companies that cater to low- and middle-income consumers are pointing to signs of greater strain, and the personal savings rate fell to 2.9% in July, near its lowest level since 2007.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While the economy has been growing at a reasonably solid pace this year, “we have supported this growth by doing less and less saving, and more and more borrowing. That’s not sustainable,” said Donald Kohn, a former Fed vice chair.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We are at a point where you might say, ‘I could go either way—25 or 50,’ but I think the risk management has shifted to the labor market and favors doing 50,” he said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2467978512","content_text":"That the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week is all but settled. But how much is shaping up to be a close call.Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a difficult decision as the central bank prepares to cut interest rates next week: Start small or begin big?The central bank is set to reduce rates for the first time since 2020 at its meeting on Sept. 17-18. Because officials have signaled greater confidence that they can make multiple rate cuts over the next several months, they are confronting questions over whether to cut by a traditional 0.25 percentage point or by a larger 0.5 point.Powell kept all his options on the table in a speech last month in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that surprised some of his colleagues with its unambiguous call to turn attention to incipient risks in the jobs market. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks,” he said then.Officials last year raised their benchmark rate to around 5.3%, a two-decade high, and will have held it at that level for the last 14 months to combat inflation, which has declined notably. Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.They are nervous about keeping interest rates too high for too long amid evidence that higher borrowing costs are working as intended to slow inflation by cooling spending, investment and hiring. They don’t want to let slip through their grasp a soft landing, in which inflation falls without a serious jump in joblessness. Answers to the tactical question over how fast to go could reveal clues about the Fed’s broader strategy. The amount of cuts over the next few months “is going to be a lot more important than whether the first move is 25 or 50, which I think is a close call,” said Jon Faust, who served until earlier this year as a senior adviser to Powell.Recent economic data have been mixed. Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week, sending market expectations of a smaller cut to around 85%, according to CME Group. But a separate report Thursday signaled that underlying prices in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge were likely to have been considerably milder in August, keeping the door open for the Fed to focus on preventing labor-market softening.Meanwhile, hiring in June and July was weaker than initially reported, but payroll growth improved in August. Layoffs have been low. Claims for jobless benefits last week stood at roughly the same low level of one year ago, the Labor Department said Thursday.Quarterly economic projections to be released at next week’s meeting could further complicate matters. Those projections will show how many rate cuts officials expect this year. The Fed has three meetings remaining this year: next week, and in November and December.Those projections aren’t the product of a committee debate but could be as important to investors as the size of the rate reduction, especially if officials opt for the smaller cut. Because markets expect the Fed to cut rates by more than 100 basis points this year, projections that show fewer cuts risk a market pullback that tightens financial conditions, sending up borrowing costs at the very moment the Fed is reducing short-term rates.The Fed normally prefers to move in increments of 0.25 point, or 25 basis points, because smaller adjustments give them more time to study the effect of their policy changes. Some officials have suggested they would rather speed up the pace once the economy looks like it is weakening further.Alternatively, officials could conclude that if they expect a 50-basis-point move is likely in November or December, they ought to make that move now, when rates are farthest from their ultimate destination.The case for starting smaller presumes the economy is fundamentally fine, according to current and former officials. They say starting with a 50-basis-point cut could communicate greater alarm about the economy or lead markets to anticipate a faster pace of rate cuts, which in turn might ignite market rallies that make it harder to finish the inflation fight.A related worry: A larger cut would lead markets to mistakenly assume the Fed plans to cut rates by the same amount at meetings in November and December. It “will set up an expectation that they would go very rapidly” to a neutral level of interest rates designed to neither spur nor slow growth, said James Bullard, who was president of the St. Louis Fed from 2008 to 2023, in an interview last week.Given the Fed’s preference to build a broad consensus and the challenge of explaining a larger rate cut right before the election, starting with a 0.25-point cut offers the path of least resistance. “25 is easy at the start,” said Esther George, who was Kansas City Fed president from 2011 until 2023. “You could say, ‘We can either keep this up for a while, or if it looks like things are weaker, we can go harder.’”The case for starting with a larger cut centers on taking out insurance against the risk the economy will slow down more under the weight of past increases at a time when officials no longer think such a slowdown is necessary to complete the job of bringing inflation back to their 2% goal.With inflation cooling as the Fed holds nominal rates steady, inflation-adjusted or real rates are as high as they have been since the central bank started hiking rates.Officials need to consider whether “you want to be the most restrictive you’ve been in the entire rate-tightening cycle at a moment when there’s a pretty clear path to 2% inflation and the unemployment rate is above” where most Fed officials expected it would go this year, said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in an interview last week.The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee has usually cut in larger increments when financial markets are showing greater alarm over the economic outlook, as was the case at the start of 2001 and in 2007 during the early innings of the global financial crises.“I don’t think we’re in a spot that really shouts out for a pre-emptive 50,” said Faust, a fellow at the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University. “But my preference would be slightly toward starting with 50. And I still think there’s a reasonable chance that the FOMC might get there as well.”Faust said he thinks the Fed could manage concerns about spooking investors with a larger cut by providing “a lot of language around it that makes it not scary.” He added, “It wouldn’t need to be a sign of worry.”Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.Faust said he thinks several officials will project 100 basis points in cuts this year. If that is the case, leading off with a 25-basis-point cut risks raising awkward questions over why officials expect to deliver a larger rate cut later this year but didn’t lead with it.If the risks are truly balanced between higher inflation and weaker labor market conditions, as Fed officials have said they believe is the case, then the Fed should want rates much closer to a neutral level, said William Dudley, who served as New York Fed president from 2009 to 2018. Given that all Fed officials believe that rate is below 4%, it doesn’t make sense to move in 25-basis-point increments. “Logic says they should be going faster,” he said.For those reasons, George said she would find it hard to oppose a larger cut right now. “You can make a very good case for 50, to say, ‘Just as we went quickly’” to raise rates above a neutral setting, “we’re now well above it, and so we can take a couple of bites at this apple.”Last week’s jobs report wasn’t particularly reassuring, said Dudley, because the unemployment rate has climbed by 0.5 percentage point since the start of the year. Normally, when the unemployment rate rises by a little bit, it tends to continue rising—and by a lot.The housing market has been soft in recent months, and while the construction sector added jobs in August, declines in new residential construction point to another source of potential weakness ahead for hiring.Businesses and financial companies that cater to low- and middle-income consumers are pointing to signs of greater strain, and the personal savings rate fell to 2.9% in July, near its lowest level since 2007.While the economy has been growing at a reasonably solid pace this year, “we have supported this growth by doing less and less saving, and more and more borrowing. That’s not sustainable,” said Donald Kohn, a former Fed vice chair.“We are at a point where you might say, ‘I could go either way—25 or 50,’ but I think the risk management has shifted to the labor market and favors doing 50,” he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349119880151288,"gmtCreate":1726264607644,"gmtModify":1726264613072,"author":{"id":"4100655058123160","authorId":"4100655058123160","name":"teegem63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac15943f10bad1c2c0ec91d5d8a2bd22","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100655058123160","authorIdStr":"4100655058123160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well researched n easy to understand. Great","listText":"Well researched n easy to understand. Great","text":"Well researched n easy to understand. Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349119880151288","repostId":"1100569585","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100569585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1726200000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100569585?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The Pre-Order Data Will Tell Us The Truth Soon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100569585","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"The company reported revenue of $85.8 billion for Q3 FY2024, which not only marked a 5% YoY increase, but it was enough to exceed the consensus forecast of $84.4 billion. This was particularly noteworthy given that the whole growth occurred during Apple's seasonally weakest quarter. Thanks to its operating leverage, AAPL was able to deliver GAAP earnings per share of $1.4, up 11% YoY, also beating the consensus estimate of $1.34 . The double-beat results and no significant negative guidance chan","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2067996948\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The iOS 18 promised to make iPhones more personal and intelligent, which could drive future sales - at first glance at least, that&#39;s true.</p></li><li><p>Apple&#39;s Q3 revenue of $85.8 billion and GAAP EPS of $1.4 beat consensus estimates, driven by geographic expansion and record services revenue.</p></li><li><p>New Apple Intelligence features could drive future iPhone upgrades, but declining mobile carrier upgrade rates pose a long-term risk.</p></li><li><p>My DCF valuation suggests AAPL is fairly valued at best, preventing a &#34;Sell&#34; rating but not justifying a &#34;Buy&#34; rating.</p></li><li><p>We will have to wait for the pre-order data (lead time) to tell to what extent AI will be a game-changer for AAPL.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/44d43b780fc874fa58434f7e1e8615a0\" alt=\"Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\" title=\"Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"482\"/><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2 id=\"id_958347437\">Intro &amp; Thesis</h2><p>I initiated coverage of <strong>Apple Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AAPL) (NEOE:AAPL:CA) stock in December 2021 and gave the stock a &#39;Hold&#39; rating, pointing to the strength of the brand but also a fairly generous valuation at the time. A few articles later, on April 10, 2023, I downgraded AAPL stock to &#34;Sell&#34;, and since then, I kept my rating unchanged. Unfortunately, pricey stocks may stay pricey way longer than we can predict, so despite the stagnation of the business, AAPL stock beat the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) (SP500) by 317 b.p. (36.91% vs. 33.74%) since I downgraded it.</p><p>In my latest bearish call, I noted that AAPL stock abruptly broke its medium-term sideways consolidation channel after investors and analysts cheered the company&#39;s AI-centric plans unveiled at the WWDC developer conference on Monday. Since then, the AAPL stock price has been in a short-term consolidation, and even the recently introduced 16th generation of iPhones has not had a significant impact on the stock&#39;s performance.</p><p>Today, I&#39;ve decided to upgrade my rating to &#34;Hold&#34; and no longer try to fight the irrationality that has appeared in AAPL&#39;s price action in recent months and even years. I still think Apple is a highly overvalued stock, but I definitely like the introduction of Apple Intelligence.</p><h2 id=\"id_2528654249\">Why Do I Think So?</h2><p>The company reported revenue of $85.8 billion for Q3 FY2024, which not only marked a 5% YoY increase, but it was enough to exceed the consensus forecast of $84.4 billion. This was particularly noteworthy given that the whole growth occurred during Apple&#39;s seasonally weakest quarter. Thanks to its operating leverage, AAPL was able to deliver GAAP earnings per share of $1.4, up 11% YoY, also beating the consensus estimate of $1.34 (although there was a sequential decline of around $0.13). The double-beat results and no significant negative guidance changes led to Q4 earnings revisions en masse:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/08d593c02e7141ef48a231b4af7b133a\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, AAPL, notes added\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, AAPL, notes added\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, AAPL, notes added</span></p><p>I think what we saw in Q3 again was that Apple&#39;s geographic expansion strategy is indeed proving effective, as evidenced by record revenues in over two dozen countries, including major end-markets like Canada, Mexico, Germany, and the U.K., as well as growth economies such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. It was these markets that helped offset the decline in sales in China (-7% YoY), which was anticipated due to &#34;economic and competitive pressures.&#34; Apple&#39;s sales went up in the Americas region (a 7% YoY increase), and in Europe (an 8% YoY rise), so the firm kept capitalizing on diverse market opportunities. The company&#39;s services segment, which achieved an all-time record revenue of ~$24.2 billion, up 14% YoY, further diversifying away from the hardware cyclicality dependence, which is, of course, good news for investors.</p><p>Despite a slight decline in market share to 15.8% from 16.6% a year earlier, Apple continues to lead in smartphone revenue and profit share globally. The iPhone generated $39.3 billion in revenue, accounting for 46% of total sales, with a slight YoY decline of &lt;1%. Additionally, the growth in Mac sales, with revenue of $7.00 billion (+3% YoY), and iPad sales (+24% YoY growth to $7.2 billion), indicates Apple&#39;s strength in the computing segment, in my opinion.</p><p>However, financials for Q3 are a thing of the past. In any case, they quickly faded into the background as Apple held its annual presentation of new products, where the main focus was, as always, on the iPhones.</p><p>While there were no major surprises, the event provided important details about the rollout of Apple Intelligence, iPhone pricing, and the new Visual Intelligence feature. The announcement that Apple plans to introduce Apple Intelligence to ~40% of the iPhone installed base by the end of this year, and &gt;70% by the end of next year, aligns with the initial market&#39;s expectations and suggests a slightly accelerated rollout, Morgan Stanley analysts noted in their recent research report (proprietary source, September 2024). They add that the &#34;70% installed base&#34; could potentially drive upgrades sooner than anticipated, as consumers may choose to &#34;future-proof&#34; their devices in anticipation of these new features.</p><p>The iOS 18 promised to make iPhones more personal and intelligent, which could drive future sales - at first glance at least, that&#39;s true. The Apple Intelligence suite of tools should focus on 4 use cases:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>expressions (new writing tools, emojis);</p></li><li><p>re-living memories (enhancing photo capture and editing);</p></li><li><p>prioritization and focus (email/notification summaries), and</p></li><li><p>command/control (an updated Siri, better natural language context, new settings and feature knowledge, new personal context).</p></li></ul><p>In a survey by US AlphaWise Survey (part of Morgan Stanley, proprietary source), ~60% of iPhone owners planning to upgrade in the next 12 months said Apple Intelligence was important to their decision. The analysts conclude that this &#34;illustrates the importance of Apple Intelligence to the iPhone 16 upgrade,&#34; but I think those who were planning to upgrade their iPhone would have done so anyway, with or without Apple Intelligence features.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eee47f0096e90314c45182d1d5717c44\" alt=\"US AlphaWise Survey (part of Morgan Stanley, proprietary source)\" title=\"US AlphaWise Survey (part of Morgan Stanley, proprietary source)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\"/><span>US AlphaWise Survey (part of Morgan Stanley, proprietary source)</span></p><p>I believe what really matters now for the market&#39;s further reaction to the iPhone 16 is the early pre-order data and the subsequent rollout of Apple Intelligence.</p><p>Although the company may currently lag behind peers like Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) in AI development, its focus on privacy and on-device processing could become a significant differentiator in the long term, Argus Research analysts noted in their August report (proprietary source, August 2024). From a technological innovation perspective, I have a few questions about Apple Intelligence&#39;s new features, but I&#39;m concerned about the long-term trend of declining mobile carrier upgrade rates (postpaid upgrade rates) that we have been seeing for several years now.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1613bf1b8234cfa96a4236c0876b0a58\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs [data shared on X]\" title=\"Goldman Sachs [data shared on X]\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"/><span>Goldman Sachs [data shared on X]</span></p><p>This data tells me that people are keeping their devices longer: either for economic reasons, satisfaction with current technology, or lack of compelling new features in the latest models, but the trend itself is not healthy for Apple. The chart above suggests that Apple&#39;s seasonal sales figures should improve soon, but it&#39;s by no means clear that Apple Intelligence will be a sufficient argument for consumers to rush to upgrade their devices. We&#39;re going to see soon.</p><p>Now, a few words about Apple&#39;s valuation. The company&#39;s capital return strategy, including a large share buyback authorization of $110 billion and a systematic dividend increase (recently by 4% to $0.25 per share), is helping to create shareholder value and a valuation premium. In my opinion, however, the multiple expansion has gone too far.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d8fc6e089898ebe6a0e30894f060ef50\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>We don&#39;t know exactly what P/E multiple is appropriate for AAPL, but the company has been generating positive cash flow for many years, so we can try to value it using DCF. I know that many are skeptical about the DCF method, but in my opinion, no better method has been invented yet.</p><p>I will deliberately take the consensus proposed today as a basis, even if I consider the forecast EPS growth rate of almost 25% in FY2026 to be too optimistic - and this forecast is based on only one opinion, according to Seeking Alpha Premium data.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1e83c4f538554f7d66d7aefd4f9d51a6\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes added\" title=\"Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes added\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"270\"/><span>Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes added</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7aa2da99345ddaabac27addf19ac7030\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes added\" title=\"Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes added\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\"/><span>Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes added</span></p><p>Be that as it may, I added a generous premium to each forecast year sales figure and left the forecast EBIT margin above 32% for the period 2026-2028. I also left other driving assumptions on their default mode, which reflects long-term averages. Here&#39;s what I get for my operations model:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/06ad3c2e1f9d4ba9c93d1f8bfeebfcea\" alt=\"FinChat, author&#39;s notes\" title=\"FinChat, author&#39;s notes\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>FinChat, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>Assuming a cost of debt of 4% (with a risk-free rate of 3.5%, so the spread is minimal in this case), I also assume an MRP of 5%, as I normally do when valuing any business. As a result, I get a WACC of 9.5%, which seems to me to be an appropriate discount rate under today&#39;s conditions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a98ca348f2092a6cb1250b91d9c7e8ab\" alt=\"FinChat, author&#39;s notes\" title=\"FinChat, author&#39;s notes\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"164\"/><span>FinChat, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>AAPL is currently trading at an EV/FCF of about 32.45x, which is more than 65% above its 10-year average. I expect this multiple to fall to 30x at least by the end of FY2028, kind of mean-reverting.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9316f85f29614ddfe87690200ec56bb\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Taking all these factors into account, I arrive at a fair value of AAPL stock, which limits its intrinsic growth potential in light of all my optimistic assumptions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff0d780eb171ebe1b464f83f29c9cb94\" alt=\"FinChat, author&#39;s notes\" title=\"FinChat, author&#39;s notes\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"146\"/><span>FinChat, author&#39;s notes</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3507332348\">The Verdict</h2><p>As Morningstar analyst William Kerwin recently noted (proprietary source), Apple is a differentiated consumer technology provider with tight integration between its hardware and software driving a wide economic moat. Indeed, I can&#39;t argue with this statement. I like how management has adeptly addressed weaknesses in certain regions, such as China, by leveraging strengths in other regions, like the Americas and Europe. Additionally, the increasing share of services revenue is noteworthy, as it&#39;s likely to continue growing and reducing reliance on hardware sales. This shift is beneficial in terms of gaining at least partial independence from market cyclicality.</p><p>The recently unveiled new Apple Intelligence features have created a wave of interest among investors and users, but it&#39;s not yet clear how this will affect upgrades and prospective sales figures. We will have to wait for the pre-order data (lead time) to tell what extent this will be a game-changer for AAPL. But the stagnant momentum in postpaid upgrade rates looks kind of scary.</p><p>Today&#39;s DCF valuation model of mine suggests that even if we add a meaningful premium to Apple&#39;s consensus revenue figures and margins, the stock would turn out to be at best fairly valued.</p><p>The lack of a strong overvaluation prevents me from confirming my previous &#34;Sell&#34; rating this time, but I also see no reason to raise the rating to &#34;Buy&#34;.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The Pre-Order Data Will Tell Us The Truth Soon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The Pre-Order Data Will Tell Us The Truth Soon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-13 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720597-apple-stock-pre-order-data-will-tell-us-truth-soon-upgrade-hold><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe iOS 18 promised to make iPhones more personal and intelligent, which could drive future sales - at first glance at least, that's true.Apple's Q3 revenue of $85.8 billion and GAAP EPS of $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720597-apple-stock-pre-order-data-will-tell-us-truth-soon-upgrade-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720597-apple-stock-pre-order-data-will-tell-us-truth-soon-upgrade-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1100569585","content_text":"SummaryThe iOS 18 promised to make iPhones more personal and intelligent, which could drive future sales - at first glance at least, that's true.Apple's Q3 revenue of $85.8 billion and GAAP EPS of $1.4 beat consensus estimates, driven by geographic expansion and record services revenue.New Apple Intelligence features could drive future iPhone upgrades, but declining mobile carrier upgrade rates pose a long-term risk.My DCF valuation suggests AAPL is fairly valued at best, preventing a \"Sell\" rating but not justifying a \"Buy\" rating.We will have to wait for the pre-order data (lead time) to tell to what extent AI will be a game-changer for AAPL.Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesIntro & ThesisI initiated coverage of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) (NEOE:AAPL:CA) stock in December 2021 and gave the stock a 'Hold' rating, pointing to the strength of the brand but also a fairly generous valuation at the time. A few articles later, on April 10, 2023, I downgraded AAPL stock to \"Sell\", and since then, I kept my rating unchanged. Unfortunately, pricey stocks may stay pricey way longer than we can predict, so despite the stagnation of the business, AAPL stock beat the S&P 500 Index (SPX) (SP500) by 317 b.p. (36.91% vs. 33.74%) since I downgraded it.In my latest bearish call, I noted that AAPL stock abruptly broke its medium-term sideways consolidation channel after investors and analysts cheered the company's AI-centric plans unveiled at the WWDC developer conference on Monday. Since then, the AAPL stock price has been in a short-term consolidation, and even the recently introduced 16th generation of iPhones has not had a significant impact on the stock's performance.Today, I've decided to upgrade my rating to \"Hold\" and no longer try to fight the irrationality that has appeared in AAPL's price action in recent months and even years. I still think Apple is a highly overvalued stock, but I definitely like the introduction of Apple Intelligence.Why Do I Think So?The company reported revenue of $85.8 billion for Q3 FY2024, which not only marked a 5% YoY increase, but it was enough to exceed the consensus forecast of $84.4 billion. This was particularly noteworthy given that the whole growth occurred during Apple's seasonally weakest quarter. Thanks to its operating leverage, AAPL was able to deliver GAAP earnings per share of $1.4, up 11% YoY, also beating the consensus estimate of $1.34 (although there was a sequential decline of around $0.13). The double-beat results and no significant negative guidance changes led to Q4 earnings revisions en masse:Seeking Alpha, AAPL, notes addedI think what we saw in Q3 again was that Apple's geographic expansion strategy is indeed proving effective, as evidenced by record revenues in over two dozen countries, including major end-markets like Canada, Mexico, Germany, and the U.K., as well as growth economies such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. It was these markets that helped offset the decline in sales in China (-7% YoY), which was anticipated due to \"economic and competitive pressures.\" Apple's sales went up in the Americas region (a 7% YoY increase), and in Europe (an 8% YoY rise), so the firm kept capitalizing on diverse market opportunities. The company's services segment, which achieved an all-time record revenue of ~$24.2 billion, up 14% YoY, further diversifying away from the hardware cyclicality dependence, which is, of course, good news for investors.Despite a slight decline in market share to 15.8% from 16.6% a year earlier, Apple continues to lead in smartphone revenue and profit share globally. The iPhone generated $39.3 billion in revenue, accounting for 46% of total sales, with a slight YoY decline of <1%. Additionally, the growth in Mac sales, with revenue of $7.00 billion (+3% YoY), and iPad sales (+24% YoY growth to $7.2 billion), indicates Apple's strength in the computing segment, in my opinion.However, financials for Q3 are a thing of the past. In any case, they quickly faded into the background as Apple held its annual presentation of new products, where the main focus was, as always, on the iPhones.While there were no major surprises, the event provided important details about the rollout of Apple Intelligence, iPhone pricing, and the new Visual Intelligence feature. The announcement that Apple plans to introduce Apple Intelligence to ~40% of the iPhone installed base by the end of this year, and >70% by the end of next year, aligns with the initial market's expectations and suggests a slightly accelerated rollout, Morgan Stanley analysts noted in their recent research report (proprietary source, September 2024). They add that the \"70% installed base\" could potentially drive upgrades sooner than anticipated, as consumers may choose to \"future-proof\" their devices in anticipation of these new features.The iOS 18 promised to make iPhones more personal and intelligent, which could drive future sales - at first glance at least, that's true. The Apple Intelligence suite of tools should focus on 4 use cases:expressions (new writing tools, emojis);re-living memories (enhancing photo capture and editing);prioritization and focus (email/notification summaries), andcommand/control (an updated Siri, better natural language context, new settings and feature knowledge, new personal context).In a survey by US AlphaWise Survey (part of Morgan Stanley, proprietary source), ~60% of iPhone owners planning to upgrade in the next 12 months said Apple Intelligence was important to their decision. The analysts conclude that this \"illustrates the importance of Apple Intelligence to the iPhone 16 upgrade,\" but I think those who were planning to upgrade their iPhone would have done so anyway, with or without Apple Intelligence features.US AlphaWise Survey (part of Morgan Stanley, proprietary source)I believe what really matters now for the market's further reaction to the iPhone 16 is the early pre-order data and the subsequent rollout of Apple Intelligence.Although the company may currently lag behind peers like Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) in AI development, its focus on privacy and on-device processing could become a significant differentiator in the long term, Argus Research analysts noted in their August report (proprietary source, August 2024). From a technological innovation perspective, I have a few questions about Apple Intelligence's new features, but I'm concerned about the long-term trend of declining mobile carrier upgrade rates (postpaid upgrade rates) that we have been seeing for several years now.Goldman Sachs [data shared on X]This data tells me that people are keeping their devices longer: either for economic reasons, satisfaction with current technology, or lack of compelling new features in the latest models, but the trend itself is not healthy for Apple. The chart above suggests that Apple's seasonal sales figures should improve soon, but it's by no means clear that Apple Intelligence will be a sufficient argument for consumers to rush to upgrade their devices. We're going to see soon.Now, a few words about Apple's valuation. The company's capital return strategy, including a large share buyback authorization of $110 billion and a systematic dividend increase (recently by 4% to $0.25 per share), is helping to create shareholder value and a valuation premium. In my opinion, however, the multiple expansion has gone too far.Data by YChartsWe don't know exactly what P/E multiple is appropriate for AAPL, but the company has been generating positive cash flow for many years, so we can try to value it using DCF. I know that many are skeptical about the DCF method, but in my opinion, no better method has been invented yet.I will deliberately take the consensus proposed today as a basis, even if I consider the forecast EPS growth rate of almost 25% in FY2026 to be too optimistic - and this forecast is based on only one opinion, according to Seeking Alpha Premium data.Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes addedSeeking Alpha Premium data, notes addedBe that as it may, I added a generous premium to each forecast year sales figure and left the forecast EBIT margin above 32% for the period 2026-2028. I also left other driving assumptions on their default mode, which reflects long-term averages. Here's what I get for my operations model:FinChat, author's notesAssuming a cost of debt of 4% (with a risk-free rate of 3.5%, so the spread is minimal in this case), I also assume an MRP of 5%, as I normally do when valuing any business. As a result, I get a WACC of 9.5%, which seems to me to be an appropriate discount rate under today's conditions.FinChat, author's notesAAPL is currently trading at an EV/FCF of about 32.45x, which is more than 65% above its 10-year average. I expect this multiple to fall to 30x at least by the end of FY2028, kind of mean-reverting.Data by YChartsTaking all these factors into account, I arrive at a fair value of AAPL stock, which limits its intrinsic growth potential in light of all my optimistic assumptions.FinChat, author's notesThe VerdictAs Morningstar analyst William Kerwin recently noted (proprietary source), Apple is a differentiated consumer technology provider with tight integration between its hardware and software driving a wide economic moat. Indeed, I can't argue with this statement. I like how management has adeptly addressed weaknesses in certain regions, such as China, by leveraging strengths in other regions, like the Americas and Europe. Additionally, the increasing share of services revenue is noteworthy, as it's likely to continue growing and reducing reliance on hardware sales. This shift is beneficial in terms of gaining at least partial independence from market cyclicality.The recently unveiled new Apple Intelligence features have created a wave of interest among investors and users, but it's not yet clear how this will affect upgrades and prospective sales figures. We will have to wait for the pre-order data (lead time) to tell what extent this will be a game-changer for AAPL. But the stagnant momentum in postpaid upgrade rates looks kind of scary.Today's DCF valuation model of mine suggests that even if we add a meaningful premium to Apple's consensus revenue figures and margins, the stock would turn out to be at best fairly valued.The lack of a strong overvaluation prevents me from confirming my previous \"Sell\" rating this time, but I also see no reason to raise the rating to \"Buy\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316888185290792,"gmtCreate":1718404320866,"gmtModify":1718404324683,"author":{"id":"4100655058123160","authorId":"4100655058123160","name":"teegem63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac15943f10bad1c2c0ec91d5d8a2bd22","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100655058123160","authorIdStr":"4100655058123160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If he can steer the company forward then ok for his compensation package.","listText":"If he can steer the company forward then ok for his compensation package.","text":"If he can steer the company forward then ok for his compensation package.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316888185290792","repostId":"1185162006","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316887784616000,"gmtCreate":1718404223701,"gmtModify":1718404227922,"author":{"id":"4100655058123160","authorId":"4100655058123160","name":"teegem63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac15943f10bad1c2c0ec91d5d8a2bd22","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100655058123160","authorIdStr":"4100655058123160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow likely'all three!","listText":"Wow likely'all three!","text":"Wow likely'all three!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316887784616000","repostId":"2442536533","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284070661763272,"gmtCreate":1710369222552,"gmtModify":1710369227548,"author":{"id":"4100655058123160","authorId":"4100655058123160","name":"teegem63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac15943f10bad1c2c0ec91d5d8a2bd22","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100655058123160","authorIdStr":"4100655058123160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounds good!&nbsp;","listText":"Sounds good!&nbsp;","text":"Sounds good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284070661763272","repostId":"2419065435","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":259301734965344,"gmtCreate":1704318677318,"gmtModify":1704318681693,"author":{"id":"4100655058123160","authorId":"4100655058123160","name":"teegem63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac15943f10bad1c2c0ec91d5d8a2bd22","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100655058123160","authorIdStr":"4100655058123160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seems it's just standard message","listText":"Seems it's just standard message","text":"Seems it's just standard message","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/259301734965344","repostId":"1116291620","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":349119880151288,"gmtCreate":1726264607644,"gmtModify":1726264613072,"author":{"id":"4100655058123160","authorId":"4100655058123160","name":"teegem63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac15943f10bad1c2c0ec91d5d8a2bd22","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100655058123160","authorIdStr":"4100655058123160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well researched n easy to understand. Great","listText":"Well researched n easy to understand. Great","text":"Well researched n easy to understand. Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349119880151288","repostId":"1100569585","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100569585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1726200000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100569585?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The Pre-Order Data Will Tell Us The Truth Soon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100569585","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"The company reported revenue of $85.8 billion for Q3 FY2024, which not only marked a 5% YoY increase, but it was enough to exceed the consensus forecast of $84.4 billion. This was particularly noteworthy given that the whole growth occurred during Apple's seasonally weakest quarter. Thanks to its operating leverage, AAPL was able to deliver GAAP earnings per share of $1.4, up 11% YoY, also beating the consensus estimate of $1.34 . The double-beat results and no significant negative guidance chan","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2067996948\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The iOS 18 promised to make iPhones more personal and intelligent, which could drive future sales - at first glance at least, that&#39;s true.</p></li><li><p>Apple&#39;s Q3 revenue of $85.8 billion and GAAP EPS of $1.4 beat consensus estimates, driven by geographic expansion and record services revenue.</p></li><li><p>New Apple Intelligence features could drive future iPhone upgrades, but declining mobile carrier upgrade rates pose a long-term risk.</p></li><li><p>My DCF valuation suggests AAPL is fairly valued at best, preventing a &#34;Sell&#34; rating but not justifying a &#34;Buy&#34; rating.</p></li><li><p>We will have to wait for the pre-order data (lead time) to tell to what extent AI will be a game-changer for AAPL.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/44d43b780fc874fa58434f7e1e8615a0\" alt=\"Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\" title=\"Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"482\"/><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2 id=\"id_958347437\">Intro &amp; Thesis</h2><p>I initiated coverage of <strong>Apple Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AAPL) (NEOE:AAPL:CA) stock in December 2021 and gave the stock a &#39;Hold&#39; rating, pointing to the strength of the brand but also a fairly generous valuation at the time. A few articles later, on April 10, 2023, I downgraded AAPL stock to &#34;Sell&#34;, and since then, I kept my rating unchanged. Unfortunately, pricey stocks may stay pricey way longer than we can predict, so despite the stagnation of the business, AAPL stock beat the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) (SP500) by 317 b.p. (36.91% vs. 33.74%) since I downgraded it.</p><p>In my latest bearish call, I noted that AAPL stock abruptly broke its medium-term sideways consolidation channel after investors and analysts cheered the company&#39;s AI-centric plans unveiled at the WWDC developer conference on Monday. Since then, the AAPL stock price has been in a short-term consolidation, and even the recently introduced 16th generation of iPhones has not had a significant impact on the stock&#39;s performance.</p><p>Today, I&#39;ve decided to upgrade my rating to &#34;Hold&#34; and no longer try to fight the irrationality that has appeared in AAPL&#39;s price action in recent months and even years. I still think Apple is a highly overvalued stock, but I definitely like the introduction of Apple Intelligence.</p><h2 id=\"id_2528654249\">Why Do I Think So?</h2><p>The company reported revenue of $85.8 billion for Q3 FY2024, which not only marked a 5% YoY increase, but it was enough to exceed the consensus forecast of $84.4 billion. This was particularly noteworthy given that the whole growth occurred during Apple&#39;s seasonally weakest quarter. Thanks to its operating leverage, AAPL was able to deliver GAAP earnings per share of $1.4, up 11% YoY, also beating the consensus estimate of $1.34 (although there was a sequential decline of around $0.13). The double-beat results and no significant negative guidance changes led to Q4 earnings revisions en masse:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/08d593c02e7141ef48a231b4af7b133a\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, AAPL, notes added\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, AAPL, notes added\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, AAPL, notes added</span></p><p>I think what we saw in Q3 again was that Apple&#39;s geographic expansion strategy is indeed proving effective, as evidenced by record revenues in over two dozen countries, including major end-markets like Canada, Mexico, Germany, and the U.K., as well as growth economies such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. It was these markets that helped offset the decline in sales in China (-7% YoY), which was anticipated due to &#34;economic and competitive pressures.&#34; Apple&#39;s sales went up in the Americas region (a 7% YoY increase), and in Europe (an 8% YoY rise), so the firm kept capitalizing on diverse market opportunities. The company&#39;s services segment, which achieved an all-time record revenue of ~$24.2 billion, up 14% YoY, further diversifying away from the hardware cyclicality dependence, which is, of course, good news for investors.</p><p>Despite a slight decline in market share to 15.8% from 16.6% a year earlier, Apple continues to lead in smartphone revenue and profit share globally. The iPhone generated $39.3 billion in revenue, accounting for 46% of total sales, with a slight YoY decline of &lt;1%. Additionally, the growth in Mac sales, with revenue of $7.00 billion (+3% YoY), and iPad sales (+24% YoY growth to $7.2 billion), indicates Apple&#39;s strength in the computing segment, in my opinion.</p><p>However, financials for Q3 are a thing of the past. In any case, they quickly faded into the background as Apple held its annual presentation of new products, where the main focus was, as always, on the iPhones.</p><p>While there were no major surprises, the event provided important details about the rollout of Apple Intelligence, iPhone pricing, and the new Visual Intelligence feature. The announcement that Apple plans to introduce Apple Intelligence to ~40% of the iPhone installed base by the end of this year, and &gt;70% by the end of next year, aligns with the initial market&#39;s expectations and suggests a slightly accelerated rollout, Morgan Stanley analysts noted in their recent research report (proprietary source, September 2024). They add that the &#34;70% installed base&#34; could potentially drive upgrades sooner than anticipated, as consumers may choose to &#34;future-proof&#34; their devices in anticipation of these new features.</p><p>The iOS 18 promised to make iPhones more personal and intelligent, which could drive future sales - at first glance at least, that&#39;s true. The Apple Intelligence suite of tools should focus on 4 use cases:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>expressions (new writing tools, emojis);</p></li><li><p>re-living memories (enhancing photo capture and editing);</p></li><li><p>prioritization and focus (email/notification summaries), and</p></li><li><p>command/control (an updated Siri, better natural language context, new settings and feature knowledge, new personal context).</p></li></ul><p>In a survey by US AlphaWise Survey (part of Morgan Stanley, proprietary source), ~60% of iPhone owners planning to upgrade in the next 12 months said Apple Intelligence was important to their decision. The analysts conclude that this &#34;illustrates the importance of Apple Intelligence to the iPhone 16 upgrade,&#34; but I think those who were planning to upgrade their iPhone would have done so anyway, with or without Apple Intelligence features.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eee47f0096e90314c45182d1d5717c44\" alt=\"US AlphaWise Survey (part of Morgan Stanley, proprietary source)\" title=\"US AlphaWise Survey (part of Morgan Stanley, proprietary source)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\"/><span>US AlphaWise Survey (part of Morgan Stanley, proprietary source)</span></p><p>I believe what really matters now for the market&#39;s further reaction to the iPhone 16 is the early pre-order data and the subsequent rollout of Apple Intelligence.</p><p>Although the company may currently lag behind peers like Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) in AI development, its focus on privacy and on-device processing could become a significant differentiator in the long term, Argus Research analysts noted in their August report (proprietary source, August 2024). From a technological innovation perspective, I have a few questions about Apple Intelligence&#39;s new features, but I&#39;m concerned about the long-term trend of declining mobile carrier upgrade rates (postpaid upgrade rates) that we have been seeing for several years now.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1613bf1b8234cfa96a4236c0876b0a58\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs [data shared on X]\" title=\"Goldman Sachs [data shared on X]\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"/><span>Goldman Sachs [data shared on X]</span></p><p>This data tells me that people are keeping their devices longer: either for economic reasons, satisfaction with current technology, or lack of compelling new features in the latest models, but the trend itself is not healthy for Apple. The chart above suggests that Apple&#39;s seasonal sales figures should improve soon, but it&#39;s by no means clear that Apple Intelligence will be a sufficient argument for consumers to rush to upgrade their devices. We&#39;re going to see soon.</p><p>Now, a few words about Apple&#39;s valuation. The company&#39;s capital return strategy, including a large share buyback authorization of $110 billion and a systematic dividend increase (recently by 4% to $0.25 per share), is helping to create shareholder value and a valuation premium. In my opinion, however, the multiple expansion has gone too far.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d8fc6e089898ebe6a0e30894f060ef50\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>We don&#39;t know exactly what P/E multiple is appropriate for AAPL, but the company has been generating positive cash flow for many years, so we can try to value it using DCF. I know that many are skeptical about the DCF method, but in my opinion, no better method has been invented yet.</p><p>I will deliberately take the consensus proposed today as a basis, even if I consider the forecast EPS growth rate of almost 25% in FY2026 to be too optimistic - and this forecast is based on only one opinion, according to Seeking Alpha Premium data.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1e83c4f538554f7d66d7aefd4f9d51a6\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes added\" title=\"Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes added\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"270\"/><span>Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes added</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7aa2da99345ddaabac27addf19ac7030\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes added\" title=\"Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes added\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\"/><span>Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes added</span></p><p>Be that as it may, I added a generous premium to each forecast year sales figure and left the forecast EBIT margin above 32% for the period 2026-2028. I also left other driving assumptions on their default mode, which reflects long-term averages. Here&#39;s what I get for my operations model:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/06ad3c2e1f9d4ba9c93d1f8bfeebfcea\" alt=\"FinChat, author&#39;s notes\" title=\"FinChat, author&#39;s notes\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>FinChat, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>Assuming a cost of debt of 4% (with a risk-free rate of 3.5%, so the spread is minimal in this case), I also assume an MRP of 5%, as I normally do when valuing any business. As a result, I get a WACC of 9.5%, which seems to me to be an appropriate discount rate under today&#39;s conditions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a98ca348f2092a6cb1250b91d9c7e8ab\" alt=\"FinChat, author&#39;s notes\" title=\"FinChat, author&#39;s notes\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"164\"/><span>FinChat, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>AAPL is currently trading at an EV/FCF of about 32.45x, which is more than 65% above its 10-year average. I expect this multiple to fall to 30x at least by the end of FY2028, kind of mean-reverting.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9316f85f29614ddfe87690200ec56bb\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Taking all these factors into account, I arrive at a fair value of AAPL stock, which limits its intrinsic growth potential in light of all my optimistic assumptions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff0d780eb171ebe1b464f83f29c9cb94\" alt=\"FinChat, author&#39;s notes\" title=\"FinChat, author&#39;s notes\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"146\"/><span>FinChat, author&#39;s notes</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3507332348\">The Verdict</h2><p>As Morningstar analyst William Kerwin recently noted (proprietary source), Apple is a differentiated consumer technology provider with tight integration between its hardware and software driving a wide economic moat. Indeed, I can&#39;t argue with this statement. I like how management has adeptly addressed weaknesses in certain regions, such as China, by leveraging strengths in other regions, like the Americas and Europe. Additionally, the increasing share of services revenue is noteworthy, as it&#39;s likely to continue growing and reducing reliance on hardware sales. This shift is beneficial in terms of gaining at least partial independence from market cyclicality.</p><p>The recently unveiled new Apple Intelligence features have created a wave of interest among investors and users, but it&#39;s not yet clear how this will affect upgrades and prospective sales figures. We will have to wait for the pre-order data (lead time) to tell what extent this will be a game-changer for AAPL. But the stagnant momentum in postpaid upgrade rates looks kind of scary.</p><p>Today&#39;s DCF valuation model of mine suggests that even if we add a meaningful premium to Apple&#39;s consensus revenue figures and margins, the stock would turn out to be at best fairly valued.</p><p>The lack of a strong overvaluation prevents me from confirming my previous &#34;Sell&#34; rating this time, but I also see no reason to raise the rating to &#34;Buy&#34;.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The Pre-Order Data Will Tell Us The Truth Soon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The Pre-Order Data Will Tell Us The Truth Soon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-13 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720597-apple-stock-pre-order-data-will-tell-us-truth-soon-upgrade-hold><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe iOS 18 promised to make iPhones more personal and intelligent, which could drive future sales - at first glance at least, that's true.Apple's Q3 revenue of $85.8 billion and GAAP EPS of $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720597-apple-stock-pre-order-data-will-tell-us-truth-soon-upgrade-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720597-apple-stock-pre-order-data-will-tell-us-truth-soon-upgrade-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1100569585","content_text":"SummaryThe iOS 18 promised to make iPhones more personal and intelligent, which could drive future sales - at first glance at least, that's true.Apple's Q3 revenue of $85.8 billion and GAAP EPS of $1.4 beat consensus estimates, driven by geographic expansion and record services revenue.New Apple Intelligence features could drive future iPhone upgrades, but declining mobile carrier upgrade rates pose a long-term risk.My DCF valuation suggests AAPL is fairly valued at best, preventing a \"Sell\" rating but not justifying a \"Buy\" rating.We will have to wait for the pre-order data (lead time) to tell to what extent AI will be a game-changer for AAPL.Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesIntro & ThesisI initiated coverage of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) (NEOE:AAPL:CA) stock in December 2021 and gave the stock a 'Hold' rating, pointing to the strength of the brand but also a fairly generous valuation at the time. A few articles later, on April 10, 2023, I downgraded AAPL stock to \"Sell\", and since then, I kept my rating unchanged. Unfortunately, pricey stocks may stay pricey way longer than we can predict, so despite the stagnation of the business, AAPL stock beat the S&P 500 Index (SPX) (SP500) by 317 b.p. (36.91% vs. 33.74%) since I downgraded it.In my latest bearish call, I noted that AAPL stock abruptly broke its medium-term sideways consolidation channel after investors and analysts cheered the company's AI-centric plans unveiled at the WWDC developer conference on Monday. Since then, the AAPL stock price has been in a short-term consolidation, and even the recently introduced 16th generation of iPhones has not had a significant impact on the stock's performance.Today, I've decided to upgrade my rating to \"Hold\" and no longer try to fight the irrationality that has appeared in AAPL's price action in recent months and even years. I still think Apple is a highly overvalued stock, but I definitely like the introduction of Apple Intelligence.Why Do I Think So?The company reported revenue of $85.8 billion for Q3 FY2024, which not only marked a 5% YoY increase, but it was enough to exceed the consensus forecast of $84.4 billion. This was particularly noteworthy given that the whole growth occurred during Apple's seasonally weakest quarter. Thanks to its operating leverage, AAPL was able to deliver GAAP earnings per share of $1.4, up 11% YoY, also beating the consensus estimate of $1.34 (although there was a sequential decline of around $0.13). The double-beat results and no significant negative guidance changes led to Q4 earnings revisions en masse:Seeking Alpha, AAPL, notes addedI think what we saw in Q3 again was that Apple's geographic expansion strategy is indeed proving effective, as evidenced by record revenues in over two dozen countries, including major end-markets like Canada, Mexico, Germany, and the U.K., as well as growth economies such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. It was these markets that helped offset the decline in sales in China (-7% YoY), which was anticipated due to \"economic and competitive pressures.\" Apple's sales went up in the Americas region (a 7% YoY increase), and in Europe (an 8% YoY rise), so the firm kept capitalizing on diverse market opportunities. The company's services segment, which achieved an all-time record revenue of ~$24.2 billion, up 14% YoY, further diversifying away from the hardware cyclicality dependence, which is, of course, good news for investors.Despite a slight decline in market share to 15.8% from 16.6% a year earlier, Apple continues to lead in smartphone revenue and profit share globally. The iPhone generated $39.3 billion in revenue, accounting for 46% of total sales, with a slight YoY decline of <1%. Additionally, the growth in Mac sales, with revenue of $7.00 billion (+3% YoY), and iPad sales (+24% YoY growth to $7.2 billion), indicates Apple's strength in the computing segment, in my opinion.However, financials for Q3 are a thing of the past. In any case, they quickly faded into the background as Apple held its annual presentation of new products, where the main focus was, as always, on the iPhones.While there were no major surprises, the event provided important details about the rollout of Apple Intelligence, iPhone pricing, and the new Visual Intelligence feature. The announcement that Apple plans to introduce Apple Intelligence to ~40% of the iPhone installed base by the end of this year, and >70% by the end of next year, aligns with the initial market's expectations and suggests a slightly accelerated rollout, Morgan Stanley analysts noted in their recent research report (proprietary source, September 2024). They add that the \"70% installed base\" could potentially drive upgrades sooner than anticipated, as consumers may choose to \"future-proof\" their devices in anticipation of these new features.The iOS 18 promised to make iPhones more personal and intelligent, which could drive future sales - at first glance at least, that's true. The Apple Intelligence suite of tools should focus on 4 use cases:expressions (new writing tools, emojis);re-living memories (enhancing photo capture and editing);prioritization and focus (email/notification summaries), andcommand/control (an updated Siri, better natural language context, new settings and feature knowledge, new personal context).In a survey by US AlphaWise Survey (part of Morgan Stanley, proprietary source), ~60% of iPhone owners planning to upgrade in the next 12 months said Apple Intelligence was important to their decision. The analysts conclude that this \"illustrates the importance of Apple Intelligence to the iPhone 16 upgrade,\" but I think those who were planning to upgrade their iPhone would have done so anyway, with or without Apple Intelligence features.US AlphaWise Survey (part of Morgan Stanley, proprietary source)I believe what really matters now for the market's further reaction to the iPhone 16 is the early pre-order data and the subsequent rollout of Apple Intelligence.Although the company may currently lag behind peers like Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) in AI development, its focus on privacy and on-device processing could become a significant differentiator in the long term, Argus Research analysts noted in their August report (proprietary source, August 2024). From a technological innovation perspective, I have a few questions about Apple Intelligence's new features, but I'm concerned about the long-term trend of declining mobile carrier upgrade rates (postpaid upgrade rates) that we have been seeing for several years now.Goldman Sachs [data shared on X]This data tells me that people are keeping their devices longer: either for economic reasons, satisfaction with current technology, or lack of compelling new features in the latest models, but the trend itself is not healthy for Apple. The chart above suggests that Apple's seasonal sales figures should improve soon, but it's by no means clear that Apple Intelligence will be a sufficient argument for consumers to rush to upgrade their devices. We're going to see soon.Now, a few words about Apple's valuation. The company's capital return strategy, including a large share buyback authorization of $110 billion and a systematic dividend increase (recently by 4% to $0.25 per share), is helping to create shareholder value and a valuation premium. In my opinion, however, the multiple expansion has gone too far.Data by YChartsWe don't know exactly what P/E multiple is appropriate for AAPL, but the company has been generating positive cash flow for many years, so we can try to value it using DCF. I know that many are skeptical about the DCF method, but in my opinion, no better method has been invented yet.I will deliberately take the consensus proposed today as a basis, even if I consider the forecast EPS growth rate of almost 25% in FY2026 to be too optimistic - and this forecast is based on only one opinion, according to Seeking Alpha Premium data.Seeking Alpha Premium data, notes addedSeeking Alpha Premium data, notes addedBe that as it may, I added a generous premium to each forecast year sales figure and left the forecast EBIT margin above 32% for the period 2026-2028. I also left other driving assumptions on their default mode, which reflects long-term averages. Here's what I get for my operations model:FinChat, author's notesAssuming a cost of debt of 4% (with a risk-free rate of 3.5%, so the spread is minimal in this case), I also assume an MRP of 5%, as I normally do when valuing any business. As a result, I get a WACC of 9.5%, which seems to me to be an appropriate discount rate under today's conditions.FinChat, author's notesAAPL is currently trading at an EV/FCF of about 32.45x, which is more than 65% above its 10-year average. I expect this multiple to fall to 30x at least by the end of FY2028, kind of mean-reverting.Data by YChartsTaking all these factors into account, I arrive at a fair value of AAPL stock, which limits its intrinsic growth potential in light of all my optimistic assumptions.FinChat, author's notesThe VerdictAs Morningstar analyst William Kerwin recently noted (proprietary source), Apple is a differentiated consumer technology provider with tight integration between its hardware and software driving a wide economic moat. Indeed, I can't argue with this statement. I like how management has adeptly addressed weaknesses in certain regions, such as China, by leveraging strengths in other regions, like the Americas and Europe. Additionally, the increasing share of services revenue is noteworthy, as it's likely to continue growing and reducing reliance on hardware sales. This shift is beneficial in terms of gaining at least partial independence from market cyclicality.The recently unveiled new Apple Intelligence features have created a wave of interest among investors and users, but it's not yet clear how this will affect upgrades and prospective sales figures. We will have to wait for the pre-order data (lead time) to tell what extent this will be a game-changer for AAPL. But the stagnant momentum in postpaid upgrade rates looks kind of scary.Today's DCF valuation model of mine suggests that even if we add a meaningful premium to Apple's consensus revenue figures and margins, the stock would turn out to be at best fairly valued.The lack of a strong overvaluation prevents me from confirming my previous \"Sell\" rating this time, but I also see no reason to raise the rating to \"Buy\".","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":259301734965344,"gmtCreate":1704318677318,"gmtModify":1704318681693,"author":{"id":"4100655058123160","authorId":"4100655058123160","name":"teegem63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac15943f10bad1c2c0ec91d5d8a2bd22","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100655058123160","authorIdStr":"4100655058123160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seems it's just standard message","listText":"Seems it's just standard message","text":"Seems it's just standard message","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/259301734965344","repostId":"1116291620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116291620","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1704295800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116291620?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-01-03 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top Calls on Wall Street: Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, SoFi, Li Auto, VinFast and More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116291620","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Here are Wednesday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:Goldman Sachs reiterates Tesla as neutralGoldman raised its price target on the stock to $255 per share from $235 and said it’s sticking with its equa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Here are Wednesday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:</p><h2 id=\"id_1546790348\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Goldman Sachs reiterates Tesla as neutral</h2><p>Goldman raised its price target on the stock to $255 per share from $235 and said it’s sticking with its equal weight rating.</p><p>“We are Neutral rated on the stock, with our positive view of Tesla’s long-term growth potential and position in the market offset by what we believe will be additional pricing reductions and full valuation.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2497445276\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Goldman Sachs reiterates Apple as buy</h2><p>Goldman said it’s standing by its buy rating on the stock.</p><p>“Apple (AAPL, Buy) should also beneﬁt from a recovery in industry PC demand, as well as a track record of share gains.”</p><h2 id=\"id_940350180\" style=\"text-align: start;\">DA Davidson initiates Nvidia as neutral</h2><p>DA said Nvidia could be “vulnerable” to AI hype.</p><p>“While we continue to believe that generative AI is the most important transformative technology since the Internet, we do not expect the same level of investment we saw in 2023 continuing beyond 2024 and initiate coverage at a NEUTRAL rating.”</p><h2 id=\"id_4053316329\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America reiterates Amazon as buy</h2><p>Bank of America said it sees “margin upside” for Amazon in 2024.</p><p>“2024 should be a solid year for Amazon advertising.”</p><h2 id=\"id_698054996\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Goldman Sachs initiates Li Auto as buy</h2><p>Goldman initiated the China EV company with a buy and says it likes Li’s “competitive positioning.”</p><p>“Expansion into BEV [battery electric vehicle] drives another leg of growth; initiate at Buy.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3150242992\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Wolfe upgrades Citi to outperform from peer perform</h2><p>Wolfe said the bank has an “attractive risk/reward.”</p><p>“C bull case does not require meeting revenue growth targets — we see compelling risk-reward from self-help.”</p><h2 id=\"id_305820707\" style=\"text-align: start;\">KBW downgrading SoFi to underperform from market perform</h2><p>KBW downgraded the stock mainly on valuation.</p><p>“We are moving our rating on SOFI to Underperform (from MP) due to a combination of recent outperformance but also a re-underwriting of our model, which slightly reduced estimates, leaving us materially below consensus.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2689001626\" style=\"text-align: start;\">BTIG initiates VinFast as buy</h2><p>BTIG said the EV company is well-positioned for expansion into North America.</p><p>“VinFast is a Vietnam-based passenger electric vehicle (EV) OEM looking to expand into North America (NAM) with longer-term expansion plans into Europe and Asia.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2539386046\" style=\"text-align: start;\">KeyBanc upgrades Verizon to overweight from sector weight</h2><p>Key said it’s bullish on Verizon in 2024.</p><p>“Our view is based off of: 1) Wireless industry competitive intensity being low, which makes us want more Wireless exposure, and VZ should show better postpaid phone net add performance; 2) VZ’s Broadband subscriber growth is far outpacing T’s.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2773530472\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Jefferies upgrades GSK to buy from hold</h2><p>Jefferies said it sees an attractive risk/reward for the biopharma company.</p><p>“Novartis is still top-pick, then GSK which we upgrade to Buy on near-term risk-reward, and Sanofi’s robust growth remains underappreciated.”</p><h2 id=\"id_553798461\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Mizuho downgrades Exxon to hold from buy</h2><p>Mizuho said in its downgrade of Exxon that it’s concerned about a “weakening” macro.</p><p>“On the downside, weakening macro outlook will impact its Downstream operations more than IOC [integrated oil companies] peers and could be a headwind.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3426469955\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Barclays initiates Teladoc as overweight</h2><p>Barclays said in its initiation of the telehealth company that shares are attractively valued.</p><p>“We see an opportunity in TDOC given its near-trough valuation at a discount to even services peers a newfound focus on profitability, balance sheet flexibility, and an embedded platform that lends itself to cross-sales.”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Calls on Wall Street: Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, SoFi, Li Auto, VinFast and More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Calls on Wall Street: Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, SoFi, Li Auto, VinFast and More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-01-03 23:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Here are Wednesday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:</p><h2 id=\"id_1546790348\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Goldman Sachs reiterates Tesla as neutral</h2><p>Goldman raised its price target on the stock to $255 per share from $235 and said it’s sticking with its equal weight rating.</p><p>“We are Neutral rated on the stock, with our positive view of Tesla’s long-term growth potential and position in the market offset by what we believe will be additional pricing reductions and full valuation.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2497445276\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Goldman Sachs reiterates Apple as buy</h2><p>Goldman said it’s standing by its buy rating on the stock.</p><p>“Apple (AAPL, Buy) should also beneﬁt from a recovery in industry PC demand, as well as a track record of share gains.”</p><h2 id=\"id_940350180\" style=\"text-align: start;\">DA Davidson initiates Nvidia as neutral</h2><p>DA said Nvidia could be “vulnerable” to AI hype.</p><p>“While we continue to believe that generative AI is the most important transformative technology since the Internet, we do not expect the same level of investment we saw in 2023 continuing beyond 2024 and initiate coverage at a NEUTRAL rating.”</p><h2 id=\"id_4053316329\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Bank of America reiterates Amazon as buy</h2><p>Bank of America said it sees “margin upside” for Amazon in 2024.</p><p>“2024 should be a solid year for Amazon advertising.”</p><h2 id=\"id_698054996\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Goldman Sachs initiates Li Auto as buy</h2><p>Goldman initiated the China EV company with a buy and says it likes Li’s “competitive positioning.”</p><p>“Expansion into BEV [battery electric vehicle] drives another leg of growth; initiate at Buy.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3150242992\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Wolfe upgrades Citi to outperform from peer perform</h2><p>Wolfe said the bank has an “attractive risk/reward.”</p><p>“C bull case does not require meeting revenue growth targets — we see compelling risk-reward from self-help.”</p><h2 id=\"id_305820707\" style=\"text-align: start;\">KBW downgrading SoFi to underperform from market perform</h2><p>KBW downgraded the stock mainly on valuation.</p><p>“We are moving our rating on SOFI to Underperform (from MP) due to a combination of recent outperformance but also a re-underwriting of our model, which slightly reduced estimates, leaving us materially below consensus.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2689001626\" style=\"text-align: start;\">BTIG initiates VinFast as buy</h2><p>BTIG said the EV company is well-positioned for expansion into North America.</p><p>“VinFast is a Vietnam-based passenger electric vehicle (EV) OEM looking to expand into North America (NAM) with longer-term expansion plans into Europe and Asia.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2539386046\" style=\"text-align: start;\">KeyBanc upgrades Verizon to overweight from sector weight</h2><p>Key said it’s bullish on Verizon in 2024.</p><p>“Our view is based off of: 1) Wireless industry competitive intensity being low, which makes us want more Wireless exposure, and VZ should show better postpaid phone net add performance; 2) VZ’s Broadband subscriber growth is far outpacing T’s.”</p><h2 id=\"id_2773530472\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Jefferies upgrades GSK to buy from hold</h2><p>Jefferies said it sees an attractive risk/reward for the biopharma company.</p><p>“Novartis is still top-pick, then GSK which we upgrade to Buy on near-term risk-reward, and Sanofi’s robust growth remains underappreciated.”</p><h2 id=\"id_553798461\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Mizuho downgrades Exxon to hold from buy</h2><p>Mizuho said in its downgrade of Exxon that it’s concerned about a “weakening” macro.</p><p>“On the downside, weakening macro outlook will impact its Downstream operations more than IOC [integrated oil companies] peers and could be a headwind.”</p><h2 id=\"id_3426469955\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Barclays initiates Teladoc as overweight</h2><p>Barclays said in its initiation of the telehealth company that shares are attractively valued.</p><p>“We see an opportunity in TDOC given its near-trough valuation at a discount to even services peers a newfound focus on profitability, balance sheet flexibility, and an embedded platform that lends itself to cross-sales.”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116291620","content_text":"Here are Wednesday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:Goldman Sachs reiterates Tesla as neutralGoldman raised its price target on the stock to $255 per share from $235 and said it’s sticking with its equal weight rating.“We are Neutral rated on the stock, with our positive view of Tesla’s long-term growth potential and position in the market offset by what we believe will be additional pricing reductions and full valuation.”Goldman Sachs reiterates Apple as buyGoldman said it’s standing by its buy rating on the stock.“Apple (AAPL, Buy) should also beneﬁt from a recovery in industry PC demand, as well as a track record of share gains.”DA Davidson initiates Nvidia as neutralDA said Nvidia could be “vulnerable” to AI hype.“While we continue to believe that generative AI is the most important transformative technology since the Internet, we do not expect the same level of investment we saw in 2023 continuing beyond 2024 and initiate coverage at a NEUTRAL rating.”Bank of America reiterates Amazon as buyBank of America said it sees “margin upside” for Amazon in 2024.“2024 should be a solid year for Amazon advertising.”Goldman Sachs initiates Li Auto as buyGoldman initiated the China EV company with a buy and says it likes Li’s “competitive positioning.”“Expansion into BEV [battery electric vehicle] drives another leg of growth; initiate at Buy.”Wolfe upgrades Citi to outperform from peer performWolfe said the bank has an “attractive risk/reward.”“C bull case does not require meeting revenue growth targets — we see compelling risk-reward from self-help.”KBW downgrading SoFi to underperform from market performKBW downgraded the stock mainly on valuation.“We are moving our rating on SOFI to Underperform (from MP) due to a combination of recent outperformance but also a re-underwriting of our model, which slightly reduced estimates, leaving us materially below consensus.”BTIG initiates VinFast as buyBTIG said the EV company is well-positioned for expansion into North America.“VinFast is a Vietnam-based passenger electric vehicle (EV) OEM looking to expand into North America (NAM) with longer-term expansion plans into Europe and Asia.”KeyBanc upgrades Verizon to overweight from sector weightKey said it’s bullish on Verizon in 2024.“Our view is based off of: 1) Wireless industry competitive intensity being low, which makes us want more Wireless exposure, and VZ should show better postpaid phone net add performance; 2) VZ’s Broadband subscriber growth is far outpacing T’s.”Jefferies upgrades GSK to buy from holdJefferies said it sees an attractive risk/reward for the biopharma company.“Novartis is still top-pick, then GSK which we upgrade to Buy on near-term risk-reward, and Sanofi’s robust growth remains underappreciated.”Mizuho downgrades Exxon to hold from buyMizuho said in its downgrade of Exxon that it’s concerned about a “weakening” macro.“On the downside, weakening macro outlook will impact its Downstream operations more than IOC [integrated oil companies] peers and could be a headwind.”Barclays initiates Teladoc as overweightBarclays said in its initiation of the telehealth company that shares are attractively valued.“We see an opportunity in TDOC given its near-trough valuation at a discount to even services peers a newfound focus on profitability, balance sheet flexibility, and an embedded platform that lends itself to cross-sales.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316888185290792,"gmtCreate":1718404320866,"gmtModify":1718404324683,"author":{"id":"4100655058123160","authorId":"4100655058123160","name":"teegem63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac15943f10bad1c2c0ec91d5d8a2bd22","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100655058123160","authorIdStr":"4100655058123160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If he can steer the company forward then ok for his compensation package.","listText":"If he can steer the company forward then ok for his compensation package.","text":"If he can steer the company forward then ok for his compensation package.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316888185290792","repostId":"1185162006","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185162006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1718335800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185162006?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-14 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dan Ives Calls It A \"Monumental Day\" For Tesla, Predicts Trillion Dollar Market Cap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185162006","media":"Benzinga","summary":"After Tesla Inc.‘s recent annual shareholder meeting, critical investor Ross Gerber acknowledged Elon Musk‘s leadership, while analystDan Ivespredicted a trillion-dollar market cap for the EV maker.Wh","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>After <strong>Tesla Inc.</strong>‘s recent annual shareholder meeting, critical investor <strong>Ross Gerber </strong>acknowledged <strong>Elon Musk</strong>‘s leadership, while analyst<strong>Dan Ives</strong>predicted a trillion-dollar market cap for the EV maker.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>What Happened</strong>: “I think it was also like a referendum on his management in his mind … I love to see Elon running Tesla again,” said Gerber, CEO of <strong>Gerber Kawasaki Wealth</strong>, on CNBC’s Last Call. Gerber emphasized that Tesla needs to focus on demand for their EVs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Hearing positive comments from Gerber about Elon Musk is noteworthy, as the investor has long criticized Musk’s leadership and questioned the EV maker’s growth story.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Wedbush</strong> analyst Dan Ives, who was on the same panel, responded to Gerber’s comments with a hint of optimism. “I’m sensing a little bullishness from the Bear Gerber,” Ives remarked.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d84d547807e0de849b197090ee6b78e4\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"1029\"/></p><p>Following Tesla’s recent shareholder meeting, Ives added, “It’s a monumental day, and I ultimately think this will be a market cap north of a trillion dollars.”</p><p><strong>Why It Matters</strong>: The shareholder meeting saw Tesla shareholders reapprove Elon Musk&#39;s multibillion-dollar pay package, signaling strong support for the EV maker&#39;s longtime leader and bolstering the board’s position in its efforts to maintain the contested compensation plan.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The approval was announced at Tesla&#39;s annual shareholder meeting in Austin, Texas. The company did not provide a percentage breakdown of the vote; in 2018, 73% of the voted shares supported the plan.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">After the results were announced, Musk appeared on stage, dancing and expressing his gratitude to the shareholders: &#34;I just want to start out by saying, ‘Hot damn, I love you guys.&#39;&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This change in sentiment from Gerber, who had previously voiced concerns about Tesla’s future, reflects a potential shift in the perception of Tesla’s trajectory. This comes on the heels of Musk’s optimistic outlook for the company, where he hinted at a possible $30 trillion valuation.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Price Action</strong>: Tesla Inc. closed at $182.47 on Thursday, up 2.92% for the day, and in after-hours trading, it rose to $182.70, an increase of 0.13%. However, the stock is down significantly year to date, dropping by 26.55%, according to the data from Benzinga Pro.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dan Ives Calls It A \"Monumental Day\" For Tesla, Predicts Trillion Dollar Market Cap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDan Ives Calls It A \"Monumental Day\" For Tesla, Predicts Trillion Dollar Market Cap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-14 11:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>After <strong>Tesla Inc.</strong>‘s recent annual shareholder meeting, critical investor <strong>Ross Gerber </strong>acknowledged <strong>Elon Musk</strong>‘s leadership, while analyst<strong>Dan Ives</strong>predicted a trillion-dollar market cap for the EV maker.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>What Happened</strong>: “I think it was also like a referendum on his management in his mind … I love to see Elon running Tesla again,” said Gerber, CEO of <strong>Gerber Kawasaki Wealth</strong>, on CNBC’s Last Call. Gerber emphasized that Tesla needs to focus on demand for their EVs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Hearing positive comments from Gerber about Elon Musk is noteworthy, as the investor has long criticized Musk’s leadership and questioned the EV maker’s growth story.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Wedbush</strong> analyst Dan Ives, who was on the same panel, responded to Gerber’s comments with a hint of optimism. “I’m sensing a little bullishness from the Bear Gerber,” Ives remarked.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d84d547807e0de849b197090ee6b78e4\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"1029\"/></p><p>Following Tesla’s recent shareholder meeting, Ives added, “It’s a monumental day, and I ultimately think this will be a market cap north of a trillion dollars.”</p><p><strong>Why It Matters</strong>: The shareholder meeting saw Tesla shareholders reapprove Elon Musk&#39;s multibillion-dollar pay package, signaling strong support for the EV maker&#39;s longtime leader and bolstering the board’s position in its efforts to maintain the contested compensation plan.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The approval was announced at Tesla&#39;s annual shareholder meeting in Austin, Texas. The company did not provide a percentage breakdown of the vote; in 2018, 73% of the voted shares supported the plan.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">After the results were announced, Musk appeared on stage, dancing and expressing his gratitude to the shareholders: &#34;I just want to start out by saying, ‘Hot damn, I love you guys.&#39;&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This change in sentiment from Gerber, who had previously voiced concerns about Tesla’s future, reflects a potential shift in the perception of Tesla’s trajectory. This comes on the heels of Musk’s optimistic outlook for the company, where he hinted at a possible $30 trillion valuation.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Price Action</strong>: Tesla Inc. closed at $182.47 on Thursday, up 2.92% for the day, and in after-hours trading, it rose to $182.70, an increase of 0.13%. However, the stock is down significantly year to date, dropping by 26.55%, according to the data from Benzinga Pro.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185162006","content_text":"After Tesla Inc.‘s recent annual shareholder meeting, critical investor Ross Gerber acknowledged Elon Musk‘s leadership, while analystDan Ivespredicted a trillion-dollar market cap for the EV maker.What Happened: “I think it was also like a referendum on his management in his mind … I love to see Elon running Tesla again,” said Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth, on CNBC’s Last Call. Gerber emphasized that Tesla needs to focus on demand for their EVs.Hearing positive comments from Gerber about Elon Musk is noteworthy, as the investor has long criticized Musk’s leadership and questioned the EV maker’s growth story.Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who was on the same panel, responded to Gerber’s comments with a hint of optimism. “I’m sensing a little bullishness from the Bear Gerber,” Ives remarked.Following Tesla’s recent shareholder meeting, Ives added, “It’s a monumental day, and I ultimately think this will be a market cap north of a trillion dollars.”Why It Matters: The shareholder meeting saw Tesla shareholders reapprove Elon Musk's multibillion-dollar pay package, signaling strong support for the EV maker's longtime leader and bolstering the board’s position in its efforts to maintain the contested compensation plan.The approval was announced at Tesla's annual shareholder meeting in Austin, Texas. The company did not provide a percentage breakdown of the vote; in 2018, 73% of the voted shares supported the plan.After the results were announced, Musk appeared on stage, dancing and expressing his gratitude to the shareholders: \"I just want to start out by saying, ‘Hot damn, I love you guys.'\"This change in sentiment from Gerber, who had previously voiced concerns about Tesla’s future, reflects a potential shift in the perception of Tesla’s trajectory. This comes on the heels of Musk’s optimistic outlook for the company, where he hinted at a possible $30 trillion valuation.Price Action: Tesla Inc. closed at $182.47 on Thursday, up 2.92% for the day, and in after-hours trading, it rose to $182.70, an increase of 0.13%. However, the stock is down significantly year to date, dropping by 26.55%, according to the data from Benzinga Pro.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351928486813736,"gmtCreate":1726958707230,"gmtModify":1726958711139,"author":{"id":"4100655058123160","authorId":"4100655058123160","name":"teegem63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac15943f10bad1c2c0ec91d5d8a2bd22","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100655058123160","authorIdStr":"4100655058123160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks great n surperb!&nbsp;","listText":"Looks great n surperb!&nbsp;","text":"Looks great n surperb!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351928486813736","repostId":"1136457088","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136457088","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Track stock‘s movements and relevant news","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Stock Track","id":"1086803395","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1726752804,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136457088?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-19 21:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Track | Applied Materials Soars on Strong AI Outlook and Robust Q3 Results","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136457088","media":"Stock Track","summary":"Shares of Applied Materials Inc.  surged by 5.06% on Wednesday, September 19, 2024, driven by the company's strong positioning in the AI industry and its robust financial performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2024.According to a report by Goldman Sachs, Applied Materials ranks among the top buzzing AI stocks, reflecting its crucial role in providing equipment, services, and software for the semiconductor industry, which is essential for the development of AI technologies. The rise of AI, In","content":"<p>Shares of Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) surged by 5.06% on Wednesday, September 19, 2024, driven by the company's strong positioning in the AI industry and its robust financial performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2024.</p>\n\n<p>According to a report by Goldman Sachs, Applied Materials ranks among the top buzzing AI stocks, reflecting its crucial role in providing equipment, services, and software for the semiconductor industry, which is essential for the development of AI technologies. The rise of AI, Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, autonomous vehicles, and other emerging technologies is fueling multi-trillion-dollar shifts in the semiconductor market, creating significant growth opportunities for Applied Materials.</p>\n\n<p>Furthermore, Applied Materials reported impressive third-quarter fiscal 2024 financial results that exceeded market expectations. The company's earnings per share came in at $2.12, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.02, while revenue reached over $6.7 billion, exceeding the estimated $6.67 billion. Gary Dickerson, the company's CEO, stated that Applied Materials is delivering strong results in 2024, with record revenues in the fiscal third quarter and earnings towards the high end of the guided range.</p>","source":"ai_movement_en","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Track | Applied Materials Soars on Strong AI Outlook and Robust Q3 Results</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Track | Applied Materials Soars on Strong AI Outlook and Robust Q3 Results\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086803395\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Stock Track </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-19 21:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) surged by 5.06% on Wednesday, September 19, 2024, driven by the company's strong positioning in the AI industry and its robust financial performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2024.</p>\n\n<p>According to a report by Goldman Sachs, Applied Materials ranks among the top buzzing AI stocks, reflecting its crucial role in providing equipment, services, and software for the semiconductor industry, which is essential for the development of AI technologies. The rise of AI, Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, autonomous vehicles, and other emerging technologies is fueling multi-trillion-dollar shifts in the semiconductor market, creating significant growth opportunities for Applied Materials.</p>\n\n<p>Furthermore, Applied Materials reported impressive third-quarter fiscal 2024 financial results that exceeded market expectations. The company's earnings per share came in at $2.12, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.02, while revenue reached over $6.7 billion, exceeding the estimated $6.67 billion. Gary Dickerson, the company's CEO, stated that Applied Materials is delivering strong results in 2024, with record revenues in the fiscal third quarter and earnings towards the high end of the guided range.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMAT":"应用材料"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136457088","content_text":"Shares of Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) surged by 5.06% on Wednesday, September 19, 2024, driven by the company's strong positioning in the AI industry and its robust financial performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2024.\nAccording to a report by Goldman Sachs, Applied Materials ranks among the top buzzing AI stocks, reflecting its crucial role in providing equipment, services, and software for the semiconductor industry, which is essential for the development of AI technologies. The rise of AI, Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, autonomous vehicles, and other emerging technologies is fueling multi-trillion-dollar shifts in the semiconductor market, creating significant growth opportunities for Applied Materials.\nFurthermore, Applied Materials reported impressive third-quarter fiscal 2024 financial results that exceeded market expectations. The company's earnings per share came in at $2.12, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.02, while revenue reached over $6.7 billion, exceeding the estimated $6.67 billion. Gary Dickerson, the company's CEO, stated that Applied Materials is delivering strong results in 2024, with record revenues in the fiscal third quarter and earnings towards the high end of the guided range.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349120447058160,"gmtCreate":1726264741627,"gmtModify":1726264747511,"author":{"id":"4100655058123160","authorId":"4100655058123160","name":"teegem63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac15943f10bad1c2c0ec91d5d8a2bd22","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100655058123160","authorIdStr":"4100655058123160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow good reading. The magic is 0.5. Or 0.25?","listText":"Wow good reading. The magic is 0.5. Or 0.25?","text":"Wow good reading. The magic is 0.5. Or 0.25?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349120447058160","repostId":"2467978512","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2467978512","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1726192800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2467978512?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2467978512","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"That the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week is all but settled. But how much is shaping up to be a close call.Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a difficult decision as the central bank prepares to cut interest rates next week: Start small or begin big?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>That the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week is all but settled. But how much is shaping up to be a close call.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3f1571d3f9f6bc3717faa9a13d491c4\" alt=\"Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.\" title=\"Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"1278\"/><span>Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a difficult decision as the central bank prepares to cut interest rates next week: Start small or begin big?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The central bank is set to reduce rates for the first time since 2020 at its meeting on Sept. 17-18. Because officials have signaled greater confidence that they can make multiple rate cuts over the next several months, they are confronting questions over whether to cut by a traditional 0.25 percentage point or by a larger 0.5 point.</p><p>Powell kept all his options on the table in a speech last month in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that surprised some of his colleagues with its unambiguous call to turn attention to incipient risks in the jobs market. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks,” he said then.</p><p>Officials last year raised their benchmark rate to around 5.3%, a two-decade high, and will have held it at that level for the last 14 months to combat inflation, which has declined notably. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/856ee4109fb2bbde2206950823e7025b\" alt=\"Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.\" title=\"Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"/><span>Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">They are nervous about keeping interest rates too high for too long amid evidence that higher borrowing costs are working as intended to slow inflation by cooling spending, investment and hiring. They don’t want to let slip through their grasp a soft landing, in which inflation falls without a serious jump in joblessness. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Answers to the tactical question over how fast to go could reveal clues about the Fed’s broader strategy. The amount of cuts over the next few months “is going to be a lot more important than whether the first move is 25 or 50, which I think is a close call,” said Jon Faust, who served until earlier this year as a senior adviser to Powell.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Recent economic data have been mixed. Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week, sending market expectations of a smaller cut to around 85%, according to CME Group. But a separate report Thursday signaled that underlying prices in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge were likely to have been considerably milder in August, keeping the door open for the Fed to focus on preventing labor-market softening.</p><p>Meanwhile, hiring in June and July was weaker than initially reported, but payroll growth improved in August. Layoffs have been low. Claims for jobless benefits last week stood at roughly the same low level of one year ago, the Labor Department said Thursday.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a29affe7b94909e2e3a7195ed518053e\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"704\"/></p><p>Quarterly economic projections to be released at next week’s meeting could further complicate matters. Those projections will show how many rate cuts officials expect this year. The Fed has three meetings remaining this year: next week, and in November and December.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Those projections aren’t the product of a committee debate but could be as important to investors as the size of the rate reduction, especially if officials opt for the smaller cut. Because markets expect the Fed to cut rates by more than 100 basis points this year, projections that show fewer cuts risk a market pullback that tightens financial conditions, sending up borrowing costs at the very moment the Fed is reducing short-term rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed normally prefers to move in increments of 0.25 point, or 25 basis points, because smaller adjustments give them more time to study the effect of their policy changes. Some officials have suggested they would rather speed up the pace once the economy looks like it is weakening further.</p><p>Alternatively, officials could conclude that if they expect a 50-basis-point move is likely in November or December, they ought to make that move now, when rates are farthest from their ultimate destination.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c1b79c953091ecda04fb3d65de1a5166\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"706\"/></p><p>The case for starting smaller presumes the economy is fundamentally fine, according to current and former officials. They say starting with a 50-basis-point cut could communicate greater alarm about the economy or lead markets to anticipate a faster pace of rate cuts, which in turn might ignite market rallies that make it harder to finish the inflation fight.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A related worry: A larger cut would lead markets to mistakenly assume the Fed plans to cut rates by the same amount at meetings in November and December. It “will set up an expectation that they would go very rapidly” to a neutral level of interest rates designed to neither spur nor slow growth, said James Bullard, who was president of the St. Louis Fed from 2008 to 2023, in an interview last week.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Given the Fed’s preference to build a broad consensus and the challenge of explaining a larger rate cut right before the election, starting with a 0.25-point cut offers the path of least resistance. “25 is easy at the start,” said Esther George, who was Kansas City Fed president from 2011 until 2023. “You could say, ‘We can either keep this up for a while, or if it looks like things are weaker, we can go harder.’”</p><p>The case for starting with a larger cut centers on taking out insurance against the risk the economy will slow down more under the weight of past increases at a time when officials no longer think such a slowdown is necessary to complete the job of bringing inflation back to their 2% goal.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/34755cc40846c0b301740ff2ab1a01b3\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"708\"/></p><p>With inflation cooling as the Fed holds nominal rates steady, inflation-adjusted or real rates are as high as they have been since the central bank started hiking rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Officials need to consider whether “you want to be the most restrictive you’ve been in the entire rate-tightening cycle at a moment when there’s a pretty clear path to 2% inflation and the unemployment rate is above” where most Fed officials expected it would go this year, said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in an interview last week.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee has usually cut in larger increments when financial markets are showing greater alarm over the economic outlook, as was the case at the start of 2001 and in 2007 during the early innings of the global financial crises.</p><p>“I don’t think we’re in a spot that really shouts out for a pre-emptive 50,” said Faust, a fellow at the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University. “But my preference would be slightly toward starting with 50. And I still think there’s a reasonable chance that the FOMC might get there as well.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Faust said he thinks the Fed could manage concerns about spooking investors with a larger cut by providing “a lot of language around it that makes it not scary.” He added, “It wouldn’t need to be a sign of worry.”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6f032e3aebfb82cd151a02410d76d7d8\" alt=\"Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.\" title=\"Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"/><span>Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Faust said he thinks several officials will project 100 basis points in cuts this year. If that is the case, leading off with a 25-basis-point cut risks raising awkward questions over why officials expect to deliver a larger rate cut later this year but didn’t lead with it.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If the risks are truly balanced between higher inflation and weaker labor market conditions, as Fed officials have said they believe is the case, then the Fed should want rates much closer to a neutral level, said William Dudley, who served as New York Fed president from 2009 to 2018. Given that all Fed officials believe that rate is below 4%, it doesn’t make sense to move in 25-basis-point increments. “Logic says they should be going faster,” he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">For those reasons, George said she would find it hard to oppose a larger cut right now. “You can make a very good case for 50, to say, ‘Just as we went quickly’” to raise rates above a neutral setting, “we’re now well above it, and so we can take a couple of bites at this apple.”</p><p>Last week’s jobs report wasn’t particularly reassuring, said Dudley, because the unemployment rate has climbed by 0.5 percentage point since the start of the year. Normally, when the unemployment rate rises by a little bit, it tends to continue rising—and by a lot.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The housing market has been soft in recent months, and while the construction sector added jobs in August, declines in new residential construction point to another source of potential weakness ahead for hiring.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Businesses and financial companies that cater to low- and middle-income consumers are pointing to signs of greater strain, and the personal savings rate fell to 2.9% in July, near its lowest level since 2007.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While the economy has been growing at a reasonably solid pace this year, “we have supported this growth by doing less and less saving, and more and more borrowing. That’s not sustainable,” said Donald Kohn, a former Fed vice chair.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We are at a point where you might say, ‘I could go either way—25 or 50,’ but I think the risk management has shifted to the labor market and favors doing 50,” he said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-13 10:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>That the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week is all but settled. But how much is shaping up to be a close call.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3f1571d3f9f6bc3717faa9a13d491c4\" alt=\"Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.\" title=\"Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"1278\"/><span>Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a difficult decision as the central bank prepares to cut interest rates next week: Start small or begin big?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The central bank is set to reduce rates for the first time since 2020 at its meeting on Sept. 17-18. Because officials have signaled greater confidence that they can make multiple rate cuts over the next several months, they are confronting questions over whether to cut by a traditional 0.25 percentage point or by a larger 0.5 point.</p><p>Powell kept all his options on the table in a speech last month in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that surprised some of his colleagues with its unambiguous call to turn attention to incipient risks in the jobs market. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks,” he said then.</p><p>Officials last year raised their benchmark rate to around 5.3%, a two-decade high, and will have held it at that level for the last 14 months to combat inflation, which has declined notably. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/856ee4109fb2bbde2206950823e7025b\" alt=\"Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.\" title=\"Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"/><span>Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">They are nervous about keeping interest rates too high for too long amid evidence that higher borrowing costs are working as intended to slow inflation by cooling spending, investment and hiring. They don’t want to let slip through their grasp a soft landing, in which inflation falls without a serious jump in joblessness. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Answers to the tactical question over how fast to go could reveal clues about the Fed’s broader strategy. The amount of cuts over the next few months “is going to be a lot more important than whether the first move is 25 or 50, which I think is a close call,” said Jon Faust, who served until earlier this year as a senior adviser to Powell.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Recent economic data have been mixed. Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week, sending market expectations of a smaller cut to around 85%, according to CME Group. But a separate report Thursday signaled that underlying prices in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge were likely to have been considerably milder in August, keeping the door open for the Fed to focus on preventing labor-market softening.</p><p>Meanwhile, hiring in June and July was weaker than initially reported, but payroll growth improved in August. Layoffs have been low. Claims for jobless benefits last week stood at roughly the same low level of one year ago, the Labor Department said Thursday.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a29affe7b94909e2e3a7195ed518053e\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"704\"/></p><p>Quarterly economic projections to be released at next week’s meeting could further complicate matters. Those projections will show how many rate cuts officials expect this year. The Fed has three meetings remaining this year: next week, and in November and December.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Those projections aren’t the product of a committee debate but could be as important to investors as the size of the rate reduction, especially if officials opt for the smaller cut. Because markets expect the Fed to cut rates by more than 100 basis points this year, projections that show fewer cuts risk a market pullback that tightens financial conditions, sending up borrowing costs at the very moment the Fed is reducing short-term rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed normally prefers to move in increments of 0.25 point, or 25 basis points, because smaller adjustments give them more time to study the effect of their policy changes. Some officials have suggested they would rather speed up the pace once the economy looks like it is weakening further.</p><p>Alternatively, officials could conclude that if they expect a 50-basis-point move is likely in November or December, they ought to make that move now, when rates are farthest from their ultimate destination.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c1b79c953091ecda04fb3d65de1a5166\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"706\"/></p><p>The case for starting smaller presumes the economy is fundamentally fine, according to current and former officials. They say starting with a 50-basis-point cut could communicate greater alarm about the economy or lead markets to anticipate a faster pace of rate cuts, which in turn might ignite market rallies that make it harder to finish the inflation fight.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A related worry: A larger cut would lead markets to mistakenly assume the Fed plans to cut rates by the same amount at meetings in November and December. It “will set up an expectation that they would go very rapidly” to a neutral level of interest rates designed to neither spur nor slow growth, said James Bullard, who was president of the St. Louis Fed from 2008 to 2023, in an interview last week.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Given the Fed’s preference to build a broad consensus and the challenge of explaining a larger rate cut right before the election, starting with a 0.25-point cut offers the path of least resistance. “25 is easy at the start,” said Esther George, who was Kansas City Fed president from 2011 until 2023. “You could say, ‘We can either keep this up for a while, or if it looks like things are weaker, we can go harder.’”</p><p>The case for starting with a larger cut centers on taking out insurance against the risk the economy will slow down more under the weight of past increases at a time when officials no longer think such a slowdown is necessary to complete the job of bringing inflation back to their 2% goal.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/34755cc40846c0b301740ff2ab1a01b3\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"708\"/></p><p>With inflation cooling as the Fed holds nominal rates steady, inflation-adjusted or real rates are as high as they have been since the central bank started hiking rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Officials need to consider whether “you want to be the most restrictive you’ve been in the entire rate-tightening cycle at a moment when there’s a pretty clear path to 2% inflation and the unemployment rate is above” where most Fed officials expected it would go this year, said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in an interview last week.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee has usually cut in larger increments when financial markets are showing greater alarm over the economic outlook, as was the case at the start of 2001 and in 2007 during the early innings of the global financial crises.</p><p>“I don’t think we’re in a spot that really shouts out for a pre-emptive 50,” said Faust, a fellow at the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University. “But my preference would be slightly toward starting with 50. And I still think there’s a reasonable chance that the FOMC might get there as well.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Faust said he thinks the Fed could manage concerns about spooking investors with a larger cut by providing “a lot of language around it that makes it not scary.” He added, “It wouldn’t need to be a sign of worry.”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6f032e3aebfb82cd151a02410d76d7d8\" alt=\"Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.\" title=\"Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"/><span>Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Faust said he thinks several officials will project 100 basis points in cuts this year. If that is the case, leading off with a 25-basis-point cut risks raising awkward questions over why officials expect to deliver a larger rate cut later this year but didn’t lead with it.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If the risks are truly balanced between higher inflation and weaker labor market conditions, as Fed officials have said they believe is the case, then the Fed should want rates much closer to a neutral level, said William Dudley, who served as New York Fed president from 2009 to 2018. Given that all Fed officials believe that rate is below 4%, it doesn’t make sense to move in 25-basis-point increments. “Logic says they should be going faster,” he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">For those reasons, George said she would find it hard to oppose a larger cut right now. “You can make a very good case for 50, to say, ‘Just as we went quickly’” to raise rates above a neutral setting, “we’re now well above it, and so we can take a couple of bites at this apple.”</p><p>Last week’s jobs report wasn’t particularly reassuring, said Dudley, because the unemployment rate has climbed by 0.5 percentage point since the start of the year. Normally, when the unemployment rate rises by a little bit, it tends to continue rising—and by a lot.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The housing market has been soft in recent months, and while the construction sector added jobs in August, declines in new residential construction point to another source of potential weakness ahead for hiring.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Businesses and financial companies that cater to low- and middle-income consumers are pointing to signs of greater strain, and the personal savings rate fell to 2.9% in July, near its lowest level since 2007.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While the economy has been growing at a reasonably solid pace this year, “we have supported this growth by doing less and less saving, and more and more borrowing. That’s not sustainable,” said Donald Kohn, a former Fed vice chair.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We are at a point where you might say, ‘I could go either way—25 or 50,’ but I think the risk management has shifted to the labor market and favors doing 50,” he said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2467978512","content_text":"That the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week is all but settled. But how much is shaping up to be a close call.Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, at a news conference in July.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a difficult decision as the central bank prepares to cut interest rates next week: Start small or begin big?The central bank is set to reduce rates for the first time since 2020 at its meeting on Sept. 17-18. Because officials have signaled greater confidence that they can make multiple rate cuts over the next several months, they are confronting questions over whether to cut by a traditional 0.25 percentage point or by a larger 0.5 point.Powell kept all his options on the table in a speech last month in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that surprised some of his colleagues with its unambiguous call to turn attention to incipient risks in the jobs market. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks,” he said then.Officials last year raised their benchmark rate to around 5.3%, a two-decade high, and will have held it at that level for the last 14 months to combat inflation, which has declined notably. Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week.They are nervous about keeping interest rates too high for too long amid evidence that higher borrowing costs are working as intended to slow inflation by cooling spending, investment and hiring. They don’t want to let slip through their grasp a soft landing, in which inflation falls without a serious jump in joblessness. Answers to the tactical question over how fast to go could reveal clues about the Fed’s broader strategy. The amount of cuts over the next few months “is going to be a lot more important than whether the first move is 25 or 50, which I think is a close call,” said Jon Faust, who served until earlier this year as a senior adviser to Powell.Recent economic data have been mixed. Several analysts said firmer housing costs in the consumer-price index report Wednesday weakened the case to push through a larger cut next week, sending market expectations of a smaller cut to around 85%, according to CME Group. But a separate report Thursday signaled that underlying prices in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge were likely to have been considerably milder in August, keeping the door open for the Fed to focus on preventing labor-market softening.Meanwhile, hiring in June and July was weaker than initially reported, but payroll growth improved in August. Layoffs have been low. Claims for jobless benefits last week stood at roughly the same low level of one year ago, the Labor Department said Thursday.Quarterly economic projections to be released at next week’s meeting could further complicate matters. Those projections will show how many rate cuts officials expect this year. The Fed has three meetings remaining this year: next week, and in November and December.Those projections aren’t the product of a committee debate but could be as important to investors as the size of the rate reduction, especially if officials opt for the smaller cut. Because markets expect the Fed to cut rates by more than 100 basis points this year, projections that show fewer cuts risk a market pullback that tightens financial conditions, sending up borrowing costs at the very moment the Fed is reducing short-term rates.The Fed normally prefers to move in increments of 0.25 point, or 25 basis points, because smaller adjustments give them more time to study the effect of their policy changes. Some officials have suggested they would rather speed up the pace once the economy looks like it is weakening further.Alternatively, officials could conclude that if they expect a 50-basis-point move is likely in November or December, they ought to make that move now, when rates are farthest from their ultimate destination.The case for starting smaller presumes the economy is fundamentally fine, according to current and former officials. They say starting with a 50-basis-point cut could communicate greater alarm about the economy or lead markets to anticipate a faster pace of rate cuts, which in turn might ignite market rallies that make it harder to finish the inflation fight.A related worry: A larger cut would lead markets to mistakenly assume the Fed plans to cut rates by the same amount at meetings in November and December. It “will set up an expectation that they would go very rapidly” to a neutral level of interest rates designed to neither spur nor slow growth, said James Bullard, who was president of the St. Louis Fed from 2008 to 2023, in an interview last week.Given the Fed’s preference to build a broad consensus and the challenge of explaining a larger rate cut right before the election, starting with a 0.25-point cut offers the path of least resistance. “25 is easy at the start,” said Esther George, who was Kansas City Fed president from 2011 until 2023. “You could say, ‘We can either keep this up for a while, or if it looks like things are weaker, we can go harder.’”The case for starting with a larger cut centers on taking out insurance against the risk the economy will slow down more under the weight of past increases at a time when officials no longer think such a slowdown is necessary to complete the job of bringing inflation back to their 2% goal.With inflation cooling as the Fed holds nominal rates steady, inflation-adjusted or real rates are as high as they have been since the central bank started hiking rates.Officials need to consider whether “you want to be the most restrictive you’ve been in the entire rate-tightening cycle at a moment when there’s a pretty clear path to 2% inflation and the unemployment rate is above” where most Fed officials expected it would go this year, said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee in an interview last week.The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee has usually cut in larger increments when financial markets are showing greater alarm over the economic outlook, as was the case at the start of 2001 and in 2007 during the early innings of the global financial crises.“I don’t think we’re in a spot that really shouts out for a pre-emptive 50,” said Faust, a fellow at the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University. “But my preference would be slightly toward starting with 50. And I still think there’s a reasonable chance that the FOMC might get there as well.”Faust said he thinks the Fed could manage concerns about spooking investors with a larger cut by providing “a lot of language around it that makes it not scary.” He added, “It wouldn’t need to be a sign of worry.”Fed Chair Jerome Powell, left with Tiff Macklem, center, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August.Faust said he thinks several officials will project 100 basis points in cuts this year. If that is the case, leading off with a 25-basis-point cut risks raising awkward questions over why officials expect to deliver a larger rate cut later this year but didn’t lead with it.If the risks are truly balanced between higher inflation and weaker labor market conditions, as Fed officials have said they believe is the case, then the Fed should want rates much closer to a neutral level, said William Dudley, who served as New York Fed president from 2009 to 2018. Given that all Fed officials believe that rate is below 4%, it doesn’t make sense to move in 25-basis-point increments. “Logic says they should be going faster,” he said.For those reasons, George said she would find it hard to oppose a larger cut right now. “You can make a very good case for 50, to say, ‘Just as we went quickly’” to raise rates above a neutral setting, “we’re now well above it, and so we can take a couple of bites at this apple.”Last week’s jobs report wasn’t particularly reassuring, said Dudley, because the unemployment rate has climbed by 0.5 percentage point since the start of the year. Normally, when the unemployment rate rises by a little bit, it tends to continue rising—and by a lot.The housing market has been soft in recent months, and while the construction sector added jobs in August, declines in new residential construction point to another source of potential weakness ahead for hiring.Businesses and financial companies that cater to low- and middle-income consumers are pointing to signs of greater strain, and the personal savings rate fell to 2.9% in July, near its lowest level since 2007.While the economy has been growing at a reasonably solid pace this year, “we have supported this growth by doing less and less saving, and more and more borrowing. That’s not sustainable,” said Donald Kohn, a former Fed vice chair.“We are at a point where you might say, ‘I could go either way—25 or 50,’ but I think the risk management has shifted to the labor market and favors doing 50,” he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316887784616000,"gmtCreate":1718404223701,"gmtModify":1718404227922,"author":{"id":"4100655058123160","authorId":"4100655058123160","name":"teegem63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac15943f10bad1c2c0ec91d5d8a2bd22","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100655058123160","authorIdStr":"4100655058123160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow likely'all three!","listText":"Wow likely'all three!","text":"Wow likely'all three!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316887784616000","repostId":"2442536533","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284070661763272,"gmtCreate":1710369222552,"gmtModify":1710369227548,"author":{"id":"4100655058123160","authorId":"4100655058123160","name":"teegem63","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac15943f10bad1c2c0ec91d5d8a2bd22","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100655058123160","authorIdStr":"4100655058123160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounds good!&nbsp;","listText":"Sounds good!&nbsp;","text":"Sounds good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284070661763272","repostId":"2419065435","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2419065435","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1710342197,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2419065435?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-13 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia’s Dip Buying Guide: 3 Reasons to Scoop Up NVDA Stock on Any Weakness","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2419065435","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Nvidia's shares may be entering sell-off territory, but investors are better off buying the dip on NVDA stock.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Semiconductor solutions for artificial intelligence applications will continue to be in high demand globally, and <strong>Nvidia</strong> (<strong><u>NVDA</u></strong>) will remain a market leader.</p></li><li><p>The chipmaker maintains a resounding “Strong Buy” rating from Wall Street analysts, and NVDA’s target can increase as the company continues its AI success.</p></li><li><p> Nvidia’s valuation remains at a 12-month low, and if the stock dips, it’s even more of a reason to buy the dip.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0763c6dc102df6afd35e2ebf0ba5384f\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"/></p><p>Source: Ascannio / Shutterstock.com</p><p><strong>Nvidia</strong> (NASDAQ:<strong><u>NVDA</u></strong>) did not end Friday’s trading session on a good note. The acclaimed chipmaker’s share price dropped more than 5%, causing investors to wonder if this is the end of Nvidia’s jaw-breaking rally. Last year, the company’s share returned a staggering gain of 240% last year, and Nvidia’s Q4 earnings report beat Wall Street’s expectations. Currently, the shares of NVDA stock have risen nearly 60% on a year-to-date basis.</p><p>Despite predictions of a sustained Nvidia sell-off in the coming days, I believe investors should not only hold on to their shares but add more to their portfolio once the stock dips.</p><p>Below are three reasons to buy the dip on NVDA shares.</p><h2 id=\"id_3970117277\">Artificial Intelligence solutions remain in high demand</h2><p>Nvidia dominates in both gaming GPUs and AI chips. In fact, the chipmaker dominates about 81% of the market for AI chips used in personal computers and data centers. Moreover, Nvidia’s TensorRT software enables fast and efficient inference of AI models on edge devices. The chipmaker has effectively tackled and consolidated this new market in an unprecedented manner, and the only chipmaker likely to begin to rival it in the near future will be <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> (NASDAQ:<strong>AMD</strong>), which plans to sell billions worth of AI chips in 2024.</p><p>Even when AMD begins selling AI chips, NVDA will keep its stronghold on the AI market for the foreseeable future, until its competitor ramps up significant sells.</p><h2 id=\"id_3593825314\">Wall Street continues to be happy with NVDA</h2><p>Wall Street analysts are excited about Nvidia’s prospects. The company has an overwhelming “Strong Buy” rating from analysts. Out of the 55 analysts covering Nvidia, 50 rate the stock as a “Buy” or “Strong Buy,” while 5 analysts have maintained a “Hold” rating.</p><p>Nvidia’s success in the AI market of course have created a lot of optimism. And it’s not just Western markets either. Despite a lack of access to China’s huge market, NVDA stock has made significant strides to sell AI chips to India-based companies and other companies based out of East Asia.</p><p>These are just some of the reasons for Wall Street analysts to remain bullish on NVDA, despite the company encroaching upon its 12-month average price target.</p><h2 id=\"id_2445939085\">Valuation is trading at a good spot</h2><p>Nvidia’s share price has been trading at a record high. However, the chipmaker’s forward P/E ratio is still well below where it was 12 months ago. Then, the stock was trading at over 52.1x forward earnings.</p><p>With its recent rally, which has caused shares to appreciate more than 76%, the chipmaker’s stock now trades for just 35.6x forward earnings. This puts Nvidia’s earnings multiple below that of its key competitor, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> (NASDAQ:<strong><u>AMD</u></strong>), and right around where <strong>Intel</strong> (NASDAQ:<strong><u>INTC</u></strong>) is trading. Moreover, a company like <strong>Palantir</strong> (NYSE:<strong>PLTR</strong>), which has seen its share price skyrocket over AI hype, is trading at 79.8x forward earnings, despite its AI platform still being in the pilot phase.</p><p>That’s all to say, despite the valuation of NVDA stock looking expensive in certain regards, it is much less than where it was 12 months ago. Also, if the stock continues to dip, investors should see it as an opportunity to buy at a cheaper valuation.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia’s Dip Buying Guide: 3 Reasons to Scoop Up NVDA Stock on Any Weakness</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia’s Dip Buying Guide: 3 Reasons to Scoop Up NVDA Stock on Any Weakness\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-13 23:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2024/03/nvidias-dip-buying-guide-3-reasons-to-scoop-up-nvda-stock-on-any-weakness/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Semiconductor solutions for artificial intelligence applications will continue to be in high demand globally, and Nvidia (NVDA) will remain a market leader.The chipmaker maintains a resounding “Strong...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2024/03/nvidias-dip-buying-guide-3-reasons-to-scoop-up-nvda-stock-on-any-weakness/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2024/03/nvidias-dip-buying-guide-3-reasons-to-scoop-up-nvda-stock-on-any-weakness/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2419065435","content_text":"Semiconductor solutions for artificial intelligence applications will continue to be in high demand globally, and Nvidia (NVDA) will remain a market leader.The chipmaker maintains a resounding “Strong Buy” rating from Wall Street analysts, and NVDA’s target can increase as the company continues its AI success. Nvidia’s valuation remains at a 12-month low, and if the stock dips, it’s even more of a reason to buy the dip.Source: Ascannio / Shutterstock.comNvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) did not end Friday’s trading session on a good note. The acclaimed chipmaker’s share price dropped more than 5%, causing investors to wonder if this is the end of Nvidia’s jaw-breaking rally. Last year, the company’s share returned a staggering gain of 240% last year, and Nvidia’s Q4 earnings report beat Wall Street’s expectations. Currently, the shares of NVDA stock have risen nearly 60% on a year-to-date basis.Despite predictions of a sustained Nvidia sell-off in the coming days, I believe investors should not only hold on to their shares but add more to their portfolio once the stock dips.Below are three reasons to buy the dip on NVDA shares.Artificial Intelligence solutions remain in high demandNvidia dominates in both gaming GPUs and AI chips. In fact, the chipmaker dominates about 81% of the market for AI chips used in personal computers and data centers. Moreover, Nvidia’s TensorRT software enables fast and efficient inference of AI models on edge devices. The chipmaker has effectively tackled and consolidated this new market in an unprecedented manner, and the only chipmaker likely to begin to rival it in the near future will be Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), which plans to sell billions worth of AI chips in 2024.Even when AMD begins selling AI chips, NVDA will keep its stronghold on the AI market for the foreseeable future, until its competitor ramps up significant sells.Wall Street continues to be happy with NVDAWall Street analysts are excited about Nvidia’s prospects. The company has an overwhelming “Strong Buy” rating from analysts. Out of the 55 analysts covering Nvidia, 50 rate the stock as a “Buy” or “Strong Buy,” while 5 analysts have maintained a “Hold” rating.Nvidia’s success in the AI market of course have created a lot of optimism. And it’s not just Western markets either. Despite a lack of access to China’s huge market, NVDA stock has made significant strides to sell AI chips to India-based companies and other companies based out of East Asia.These are just some of the reasons for Wall Street analysts to remain bullish on NVDA, despite the company encroaching upon its 12-month average price target.Valuation is trading at a good spotNvidia’s share price has been trading at a record high. However, the chipmaker’s forward P/E ratio is still well below where it was 12 months ago. Then, the stock was trading at over 52.1x forward earnings.With its recent rally, which has caused shares to appreciate more than 76%, the chipmaker’s stock now trades for just 35.6x forward earnings. This puts Nvidia’s earnings multiple below that of its key competitor, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), and right around where Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is trading. Moreover, a company like Palantir (NYSE:PLTR), which has seen its share price skyrocket over AI hype, is trading at 79.8x forward earnings, despite its AI platform still being in the pilot phase.That’s all to say, despite the valuation of NVDA stock looking expensive in certain regards, it is much less than where it was 12 months ago. Also, if the stock continues to dip, investors should see it as an opportunity to buy at a cheaper valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}