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屎奴比

屎奴比

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2024-01-02

Hello hello hello new year

2022-12-06

$胜科海事(S51.SI)$

2022-12-01

$胜科海事(S51.SI)$

2022-11-30

good

@TigerEvents:Join Tiger's Football Season, share the prizes worth up to US$200,000

2022-11-30

$胜科海事(S51.SI)$

2022-11-26

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2022-11-19

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2022-11-10

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Bank of England's chief economist admits: QE was a mistake during the epidemic, and printing money led to inflation surging

2022-11-06

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2022-11-06

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Fang Xinghai: Promote the implementation of the reform of the overseas listing system for enterprises, and support all types of enterprises to list overseas in accordance with laws and regulations

2022-11-01

r

2022-10-30

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2022-10-29

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2022-10-28

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2022-10-26

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2022-10-26

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2022-10-24

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2022-10-23

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CICC: U.S. debt 2022 = oil 2020?

2022-10-18

[微笑]

@报告财经:【報告財經｜NFT電子書初創公司Book.io獲貝塔斯曼子公司BDMI投資】10 月 18 日，既本月初完成圖書發行商 Ingram Content Group 獨家投資的種子輪融資後，NFT 電子書初創公司 Book.io 宣佈又完成一筆新融資交易，投資方爲貝塔斯曼旗下子公司 BDMI，具體金額暫未對外披露。Book.io 首席執行官 Joshua Stone 表示，除了獲得資金支持之外，他們還將與 BDMI 建立「一種合作伙伴關係」，拓展除 NFT 電子書之外的創新產品，比如有聲讀物和其他類型的數字媒體。Book.io 於 2022 年 7 月 20 日開始其首次圖書銷售，二級市場銷售總額已超過 50 萬美元，其中單本收藏電子書售價超過 4000 美元。

2022-09-09

$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$D

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xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966178392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961910397,"gmtCreate":1668817926719,"gmtModify":1676538116984,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961910397","repostId":"1132969598","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960044335,"gmtCreate":1668038225828,"gmtModify":1676538001328,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960044335","repostId":"2282908517","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2282908517","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1668037515,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2282908517?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-10 07:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Bank of England's chief economist admits: QE was a mistake during the epidemic, and printing money led to inflation surging","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2282908517","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"英国政策制定者第一次承认央行的货币政策可能助长了通胀危机。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Bank of England's chief economist admitted that it was a mistake to implement QE during the epidemic, and printing money led to skyrocketing inflation in the UK. Huw Pill, chief economist of the Bank of England, testified before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee on Tuesday that the current high inflation in the UK is mainly caused by soaring natural gas prices in Europe. But it also acknowledged that the Bank of England's 450 billion pound quantitative easing policy during the epidemic was also an important factor fueling inflation:</p><p>The disruption of demand is overemphasized relative to the disruption of supply, which may mean that there is higher support for demand than it should be.<b>Pill's statement means that policymakers have acknowledged for the first time that the central bank's monetary policy may have contributed to the inflation crisis.</b>The latest data shows that the UK's CPI increased by an astonishing 10.1% year-on-year in September, much higher than the central bank's 2% target.</p><p>But Pill also refuted Mervyn King, a member of the Economic Affairs Committee of the House of Lords and former Bank of England governor, that the Bank of England raised interest rates. 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The Bank of England should not only reduce inflation, but not \"excessive\" rate hike. \"Achieving this balance between rate hike and inflation is our key message to the market.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of England's chief economist admits: QE was a mistake during the epidemic, and printing money led to inflation surging</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of England's chief economist admits: QE was a mistake during the epidemic, and printing money led to inflation surging\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-10 07:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Bank of England's chief economist admitted that it was a mistake to implement QE during the epidemic, and printing money led to skyrocketing inflation in the UK. Huw Pill, chief economist of the Bank of England, testified before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee on Tuesday that the current high inflation in the UK is mainly caused by soaring natural gas prices in Europe. But it also acknowledged that the Bank of England's 450 billion pound quantitative easing policy during the epidemic was also an important factor fueling inflation:</p><p>The disruption of demand is overemphasized relative to the disruption of supply, which may mean that there is higher support for demand than it should be.<b>Pill's statement means that policymakers have acknowledged for the first time that the central bank's monetary policy may have contributed to the inflation crisis.</b>The latest data shows that the UK's CPI increased by an astonishing 10.1% year-on-year in September, much higher than the central bank's 2% target.</p><p>But Pill also refuted Mervyn King, a member of the Economic Affairs Committee of the House of Lords and former Bank of England governor, that the Bank of England raised interest rates. The latter believed that the Bank of England raised interest rates by 75 basis points to 3% last week, which was still far from enough to control inflation.</p><p>Pill stressed that the Bank of England's latest forecast clearly shows that policymakers may continue their rate hike at future meetings, but he also believes that the recent market expectation that the benchmark interest rate will reach 5.25% next year is a bit overdone. This is basically consistent with its view last Friday.</p><p>In an interview with the media on Friday, Pill said the Bank of England remained committed to its \"key goal\" of reducing inflation, but hoped the market would \"readjust\" its interest rate expectations. The Bank of England should not only reduce inflation, but not \"excessive\" rate hike. \"Achieving this balance between rate hike and inflation is our key message to the market.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674543\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4615733226f74d6518f8376a6cf9fb9c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674543","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2282908517","content_text":"英国央行首席经济学家承认，在疫情期间执行QE是个错误，印钞导致英国通胀狂飙。英国央行首席经济学家Huw Pill周二在上议院经济事务委员会做证时表示，英国目前的高通胀主要是由欧洲天然气价格飙涨造成的。但其同时承认，英国央行疫情期间4500亿英镑的量化宽松政策也是助长通胀的重要因素：相对于供应的破坏，需求的破坏受到过度的强调，这可能意味着对需求的支持高于应有的水平。Pill的表态意味着政策制定者第一次承认央行的货币政策可能助长了通胀危机。最新数据显示，英国9月CPI同比增幅达到惊人的10.1%，远高于央行2%的目标。但Pill同时反驳了现任英国上议院经济事务委员会委员、前英国央行行长Mervyn King关于英国央行升息的观点，后者认为英国央行上周将利率提升75个基点至3%仍远不足以控制通胀。Pill强调，英国央行的最新预测清楚地表明，政策制定者可能会在未来的会议上继续加息，但其同时认为近期市场对明年基准利率达到5.25%的预期有些过头了。这与其上周五的观点基本一致。Pill在上周五接受媒体采访时表示，英国央行仍然致力于实现其降低通胀的“关键目标”，但希望市场将“重新调整”其利率预期。英国央行既要降通胀，又不要“过度”加息。“实现这种加息和通胀的平衡，是我们对市场释放的关键信息。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984587839,"gmtCreate":1667693188621,"gmtModify":1676537951703,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984587839","repostId":"2281632990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984587378,"gmtCreate":1667693173295,"gmtModify":1676537951699,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984587378","repostId":"1156722685","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156722685","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667615253,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156722685?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-05 10:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Fang Xinghai: Promote the implementation of the reform of the overseas listing system for enterprises, and support all types of enterprises to list overseas in accordance with laws and regulations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156722685","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月5日电，证监会副主席方星海在第五届虹桥国际经济论坛“中国资本市场高质量对外开放”分论坛上的致辞表示，将不断完善相关制度安排，进一步便利境内外投资者跨境投资，更好支持企业跨境融资发展。健全GDR、","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On November 5th, Fang Xinghai, Vice Chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, attended the 5th Hongqiao International Economic Forum \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>The speech at the sub-forum \"High-quality Market Opening to the Outside World\" stated that relevant institutional arrangements will be continuously improved to further facilitate cross-border investment by domestic and foreign investors and better support the development of cross-border financing for enterprises. Improve market interconnection mechanisms such as GDR and CDR issuance, promote the implementation of the reform of the overseas listing system for enterprises, and support all kinds of enterprises to list overseas in accordance with laws and regulations. Strengthen pragmatic cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong capital markets, expand the stock target of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, include more A-share listed companies, support Hong Kong to launch RMB stock trading counters, support and cooperate with Hong Kong to launch Treasury Bond futures in Hong Kong, and realize the complementary advantages of the two places. Complementary and coordinated development.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fang Xinghai: Promote the implementation of the reform of the overseas listing system for enterprises, and support all types of enterprises to list overseas in accordance with laws and regulations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFang Xinghai: Promote the implementation of the reform of the overseas listing system for enterprises, and support all types of enterprises to list overseas in accordance with laws and regulations\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-05 10:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On November 5th, Fang Xinghai, Vice Chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, attended the 5th Hongqiao International Economic Forum \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>The speech at the sub-forum \"High-quality Market Opening to the Outside World\" stated that relevant institutional arrangements will be continuously improved to further facilitate cross-border investment by domestic and foreign investors and better support the development of cross-border financing for enterprises. Improve market interconnection mechanisms such as GDR and CDR issuance, promote the implementation of the reform of the overseas listing system for enterprises, and support all kinds of enterprises to list overseas in accordance with laws and regulations. Strengthen pragmatic cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong capital markets, expand the stock target of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, include more A-share listed companies, support Hong Kong to launch RMB stock trading counters, support and cooperate with Hong Kong to launch Treasury Bond futures in Hong Kong, and realize the complementary advantages of the two places. Complementary and coordinated development.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9635eb271432f5c92670ddd7726225b","relate_stocks":{"HTSC.UK":"华泰证券"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156722685","content_text":"11月5日电，证监会副主席方星海在第五届虹桥国际经济论坛“中国资本市场高质量对外开放”分论坛上的致辞表示，将不断完善相关制度安排，进一步便利境内外投资者跨境投资，更好支持企业跨境融资发展。健全GDR、CDR发行等市场互联互通机制，推动企业境外上市制度改革落地实施，支持各类企业依法依规赴境外上市。加强内地与香港资本市场务实合作，扩大沪深港通股票标的，将更多A股上市公司纳入，支持香港推出人民币股票交易柜台，支持和协同港方在香港推出国债期货，实现两地优势互补、协同发展。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00170":0.9,"HTSC.UK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985947397,"gmtCreate":1667304563919,"gmtModify":1676537894644,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"r","listText":"r","text":"r","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985947397","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982979097,"gmtCreate":1667091560119,"gmtModify":1676537858585,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982979097","repostId":"1106125706","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982086438,"gmtCreate":1667046416224,"gmtModify":1676537853861,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"r","listText":"r","text":"r","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982086438","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986237852,"gmtCreate":1666960969676,"gmtModify":1676537840009,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"r","listText":"r","text":"r","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986237852","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988669854,"gmtCreate":1666744412579,"gmtModify":1676537798611,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988669854","repostId":"2278579239","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988669991,"gmtCreate":1666744393813,"gmtModify":1676537798603,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988669991","repostId":"1184763379","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981556684,"gmtCreate":1666572457648,"gmtModify":1676537769007,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981556684","repostId":"1190335901","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981878626,"gmtCreate":1666485153765,"gmtModify":1676537759899,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981878626","repostId":"1130690374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130690374","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666672819,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130690374?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-25 12:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: U.S. debt 2022 = oil 2020?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130690374","media":"中金点睛","summary":"美债利率大幅下行是大概率事件。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>CICC believes that the current U.S. bond market may be close to the edge of pricing \"failure\", which is similar to the oil situation in April 2020. The market has priced the current macro environment to the extreme, and the possibility of future situation reversal is high., a sharp decline in US Treasury yields is a high probability event.</b>Text/CICC Asset Research: Li Zhao, Qi Wei, Yang Xiaoqing, Wang Hanfeng</p><p><b>U.S. bond market liquidity is close to levels seen in March 2020 when the market \"failed\"</b></p><p>Recently, the ten-year US Treasury yields once exceeded 4.3% in intraday trading, attracting market attention. We believe that interest rate pricing has obviously deviated from the equilibrium price, which is affected by the following factors:</p><p><b>1) The liquidity of the bond market is too poor.</b>At present, there are still US $2 trillion in overnight reverse repurchases in the Federal Reserve account, and the market is generally not short of US dollar liquidity. However, this year's macro policies and market volatility are too great. At the same time, the increase in U.S. bond stocks has made it difficult for market makers to trade, and there are serious liquidity problems in the U.S. bond market.</p><p>Bond pricing errors can be used to measure liquidity: summarize the pricing errors of the duration pricing models of all U.S. bonds in the market. The greater the error, the more serious the pricing distortion in the market and the worse the market liquidity.</p><p>Pricing error data shows that the current liquidity of the U.S. bond market is close to the level when the market \"failed\" under the influence of the epidemic in March 2020. At that time, the Federal Reserve was forced to intervene and start \"unlimited QE\" to restore the normal operation of the bond market.</p><p>At present, the U.S. bond market may be close to the edge of pricing \"failure\". Even if investors believe that interest rates have significantly deviated from reasonable prices, they dare not increase their positions against the market trend.</p><p>Chart: U.S. bond market liquidity is close to the level when the market \"failed\" in March 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e1bbae6ca2f1267f2a9d51f869a9b8\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: There are still $2 trillion in overnight reverse repurchases on the Fed's account<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17fc7ab848330686a233a34f627c3fba\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Haver Analytics, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: The recent volatility in the U.S. bond market is too high</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fe1703f36e6de9e8c690ecbc1be3fc2\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: The futures market expects the end of the rate hike to be close to 5%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd72d6c195ffadcf706bac9f98da2e6\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>2) The black swan event of UK policy became the last straw that crushed global bond markets</b>, the UK bond market collapsed directly, the pension fund experienced a repayment crisis, and the global market linkage spread to U.S. debt. Restricted by low liquidity, although the risks in the UK have been greatly alleviated at present, the US Treasury yields has not clearly reflected the changes in fundamentals.</p><p><b>3) U.S. CPI inflation exceeded expectations in August-September</b>, the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance, and the market expected the end of the rate hike to be close to 5% at one point, forming an \"inflation panic\".</p><p><b>The U.S. bond market in 2022 is similar to the oil market in 2020</b></p><p>Among the major global asset classes, the last asset to clearly deviate from the fundamental price may be oil. Affected by the epidemic at the beginning of 2020, oil demand was greatly reduced, and oil prices fell off a cliff. Since oil is a resource product with certain industrial value, and the negative impact of the epidemic will eventually pass, as long as the decline is large enough, it should provide a definite rise opportunity.</p><p>In March 2020, market pricing has interpreted the predicament at that time to the extreme, and there is no suspense that the future situation will reverse, so investors choose to \"buy the bottom\" at low oil prices. However, unexpected, there was a temporary shortage of oil storage capacity, and the delivery mechanism caused oil prices to completely deviate from fundamentals. WTI oil futures prices fell to-$37 per barrel in April, causing losses to investors.</p><p>In hindsight, investors who chose to buy oil at the bottom in March-April 2020 were completely correct about the fundamentals. In the next two years, the oil price will rise rapidly from negative to US $130, making it the most eye-catching asset among the world's major asset classes. If you abandon fundamental analysis after suffering losses in April, you will miss this once-in-a-decade oil supercycle.</p><p>Chart: WTI crude oil prices once fell to-US $37/barrel in 2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daba71b7434bf85b738a81b3dc6446a8\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: In the past two years, oil has been the most eye-catching asset among the world's major assets (denominated in US dollars, full return rate)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1dee1eb7c5dfd6961744e8398da207\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Wind, Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>The U.S. debt situation in October 2022 is similar to the oil situation in April 2020. The market has priced the current macro environment to the extreme, and the possibility of a future situation reversal is high.</p><p>At present, inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve is aggressively tightening, which should push up interest rates. But even assuming that the Fed's rate hike stops at 4.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields equilibrium price is only 3.2%, and the market pricing is already close to 100bp higher than the equilibrium price.</p><p>Looking forward, it is a foregone conclusion that the U.S. economy will enter a recession, and the economic slowdown will bring about a significant improvement in inflation. We believe that a sharp decline in US Treasury yields is also a high probability event. However, if you buy U.S. debt at the bottom in October, you will also suffer more losses.</p><p>In the past two months, our forecasts for the trend of the U.S. bond market have been quite deviated, but referring to the experience of 2020,<b>We believe that it is not appropriate to follow the trend too much and ignore the signals of fundamental analysis.</b></p><p>Chart: Assuming that the Fed's rate hike endpoint is 4.8%, the equilibrium price of the ten-year US Treasury yields at the end of 2022 is around 3.2%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833929fa8e4b3e0f1b1737570137f9a5\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>US Treasury yields predicts, what we see right, what we see wrong, and what we learn</b></p><p>In December 2021, we predicted that the US Treasury yields will rise sharply in 2022, in April 2022, we predicted that the interest rate will fluctuate in both directions, and in June, we predicted that the interest rate will fall sharply, and then turn neutral. So far, our forecast of the market situation has basically fulfilled.</p><p>However, since September, we have not predicted that the US Treasury yields will rise sharply from 3% to 4.3%, mainly because we have not fully considered the impact of \"nonlinear\" and \"small probability\" events:</p><p>Chart: We accurately judged the upward trend of US Treasury yields starting at the end of 2021 and the downward trend after June 2022, but did not predict that US Treasury yields would surge above 4%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6c25f6fe73d99757f5ed5f75b075a7\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>First of all, the sharp rise in US Treasury yields is ultimately the result of CPI inflation growth that exceeds expectations. Our CPI forecast model is based on the statistical laws of economic data. The implicit assumption is that the leading and lagging relationship of the data can be linearly extrapolated according to historical laws, but the recent inflation increase has exceeded the model forecast.</p><p>Secondly, we didn't predict the UK policy surprise and pension crisis. We assumed beforehand that the British government's decision-making would conform to rationality and common sense, but this assumption was challenged, and the black swan incident of British policy finally washed away the US, European and Treasury Bond markets.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the past two months, we believe that the \"nonlinearity\" of the post-epidemic world needs more attention. Our fundamental analysis can only derive the average path and end price of asset prices, but nonlinear events may cause asset prices to fluctuate. With the increase, it can completely deviate from the equilibrium price significantly, and it will take longer to converge to the equilibrium price.</p><p><b>Therefore, while we maintain our forecast of a 10-year US Treasury yields downward to 3% unchanged, we extend the time for our view to be fulfilled to 2022Q4-2023Q1.</b></p><p><b>Predicting asset prices requires attention to a new nonlinear event-financial market risk</b></p><p>Before October, most nonlinear events pushed up US Treasury yields, but now there may be a kind of nonlinear event-financial market risk-that has become a force to depress US Treasury yields. The Fed can choose to sacrifice economic growth to control inflation, but it may not be able to accept financial market disorder and financial crisis.</p><p>This rate hike cycle is faster than most rate hike cycles in history, but the complexity of the current financial market is far greater than that of decades ago, and some institutions and markets may have difficulty adapting to the sudden high interest rate environment.</p><p>Take the British crisis as an example. After the collapse of the British debt, the leverage ratio of pension LDI investment was exposed, and the Bank of England was forced to choose a \"temporary QE\" situation to stabilize the market. We believe that the markets of other countries may hide similar problems, and the policy response after the financial market shock may also be close to the choice of the Bank of England.</p><p>At present, in addition to the problems exposed in the operation of the U.S. bond market, we believe that the risk accumulation of high-yield corporate bonds in developed markets and sovereign bonds in emerging markets cannot be ignored. In fact, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that Fed officials have begun to pay attention to the risk of \"excessive tightening\" and may slow down rate hike at the December Fed meeting.</p><p>Although it is not the baseline scenario, we believe that the possibility of the Fed's early adjustment of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet policies in 2023 needs to be considered. US Treasury yields may continue to fluctuate widely in 2023, but the final decline may exceed expectations.</p><p>Chart: This rate hike cycle is faster than most rate hike cycles in history<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069d60f2e3758a0a52d29b94446fa19e\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: UK long-term interest rates plummet after UK announced bond purchase plan<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e93df97be61997498ed3e69b299ae65\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zjdj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: U.S. debt 2022 = oil 2020?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: U.S. debt 2022 = oil 2020?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中金点睛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-25 12:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>CICC believes that the current U.S. bond market may be close to the edge of pricing \"failure\", which is similar to the oil situation in April 2020. The market has priced the current macro environment to the extreme, and the possibility of future situation reversal is high., a sharp decline in US Treasury yields is a high probability event.</b>Text/CICC Asset Research: Li Zhao, Qi Wei, Yang Xiaoqing, Wang Hanfeng</p><p><b>U.S. bond market liquidity is close to levels seen in March 2020 when the market \"failed\"</b></p><p>Recently, the ten-year US Treasury yields once exceeded 4.3% in intraday trading, attracting market attention. We believe that interest rate pricing has obviously deviated from the equilibrium price, which is affected by the following factors:</p><p><b>1) The liquidity of the bond market is too poor.</b>At present, there are still US $2 trillion in overnight reverse repurchases in the Federal Reserve account, and the market is generally not short of US dollar liquidity. However, this year's macro policies and market volatility are too great. At the same time, the increase in U.S. bond stocks has made it difficult for market makers to trade, and there are serious liquidity problems in the U.S. bond market.</p><p>Bond pricing errors can be used to measure liquidity: summarize the pricing errors of the duration pricing models of all U.S. bonds in the market. The greater the error, the more serious the pricing distortion in the market and the worse the market liquidity.</p><p>Pricing error data shows that the current liquidity of the U.S. bond market is close to the level when the market \"failed\" under the influence of the epidemic in March 2020. At that time, the Federal Reserve was forced to intervene and start \"unlimited QE\" to restore the normal operation of the bond market.</p><p>At present, the U.S. bond market may be close to the edge of pricing \"failure\". Even if investors believe that interest rates have significantly deviated from reasonable prices, they dare not increase their positions against the market trend.</p><p>Chart: U.S. bond market liquidity is close to the level when the market \"failed\" in March 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e1bbae6ca2f1267f2a9d51f869a9b8\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: There are still $2 trillion in overnight reverse repurchases on the Fed's account<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17fc7ab848330686a233a34f627c3fba\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Haver Analytics, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: The recent volatility in the U.S. bond market is too high</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fe1703f36e6de9e8c690ecbc1be3fc2\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: The futures market expects the end of the rate hike to be close to 5%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd72d6c195ffadcf706bac9f98da2e6\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>2) The black swan event of UK policy became the last straw that crushed global bond markets</b>, the UK bond market collapsed directly, the pension fund experienced a repayment crisis, and the global market linkage spread to U.S. debt. Restricted by low liquidity, although the risks in the UK have been greatly alleviated at present, the US Treasury yields has not clearly reflected the changes in fundamentals.</p><p><b>3) U.S. CPI inflation exceeded expectations in August-September</b>, the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance, and the market expected the end of the rate hike to be close to 5% at one point, forming an \"inflation panic\".</p><p><b>The U.S. bond market in 2022 is similar to the oil market in 2020</b></p><p>Among the major global asset classes, the last asset to clearly deviate from the fundamental price may be oil. Affected by the epidemic at the beginning of 2020, oil demand was greatly reduced, and oil prices fell off a cliff. Since oil is a resource product with certain industrial value, and the negative impact of the epidemic will eventually pass, as long as the decline is large enough, it should provide a definite rise opportunity.</p><p>In March 2020, market pricing has interpreted the predicament at that time to the extreme, and there is no suspense that the future situation will reverse, so investors choose to \"buy the bottom\" at low oil prices. However, unexpected, there was a temporary shortage of oil storage capacity, and the delivery mechanism caused oil prices to completely deviate from fundamentals. WTI oil futures prices fell to-$37 per barrel in April, causing losses to investors.</p><p>In hindsight, investors who chose to buy oil at the bottom in March-April 2020 were completely correct about the fundamentals. In the next two years, the oil price will rise rapidly from negative to US $130, making it the most eye-catching asset among the world's major asset classes. If you abandon fundamental analysis after suffering losses in April, you will miss this once-in-a-decade oil supercycle.</p><p>Chart: WTI crude oil prices once fell to-US $37/barrel in 2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daba71b7434bf85b738a81b3dc6446a8\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: In the past two years, oil has been the most eye-catching asset among the world's major assets (denominated in US dollars, full return rate)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1dee1eb7c5dfd6961744e8398da207\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Wind, Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>The U.S. debt situation in October 2022 is similar to the oil situation in April 2020. The market has priced the current macro environment to the extreme, and the possibility of a future situation reversal is high.</p><p>At present, inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve is aggressively tightening, which should push up interest rates. But even assuming that the Fed's rate hike stops at 4.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields equilibrium price is only 3.2%, and the market pricing is already close to 100bp higher than the equilibrium price.</p><p>Looking forward, it is a foregone conclusion that the U.S. economy will enter a recession, and the economic slowdown will bring about a significant improvement in inflation. We believe that a sharp decline in US Treasury yields is also a high probability event. However, if you buy U.S. debt at the bottom in October, you will also suffer more losses.</p><p>In the past two months, our forecasts for the trend of the U.S. bond market have been quite deviated, but referring to the experience of 2020,<b>We believe that it is not appropriate to follow the trend too much and ignore the signals of fundamental analysis.</b></p><p>Chart: Assuming that the Fed's rate hike endpoint is 4.8%, the equilibrium price of the ten-year US Treasury yields at the end of 2022 is around 3.2%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833929fa8e4b3e0f1b1737570137f9a5\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>US Treasury yields predicts, what we see right, what we see wrong, and what we learn</b></p><p>In December 2021, we predicted that the US Treasury yields will rise sharply in 2022, in April 2022, we predicted that the interest rate will fluctuate in both directions, and in June, we predicted that the interest rate will fall sharply, and then turn neutral. So far, our forecast of the market situation has basically fulfilled.</p><p>However, since September, we have not predicted that the US Treasury yields will rise sharply from 3% to 4.3%, mainly because we have not fully considered the impact of \"nonlinear\" and \"small probability\" events:</p><p>Chart: We accurately judged the upward trend of US Treasury yields starting at the end of 2021 and the downward trend after June 2022, but did not predict that US Treasury yields would surge above 4%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6c25f6fe73d99757f5ed5f75b075a7\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>First of all, the sharp rise in US Treasury yields is ultimately the result of CPI inflation growth that exceeds expectations. Our CPI forecast model is based on the statistical laws of economic data. The implicit assumption is that the leading and lagging relationship of the data can be linearly extrapolated according to historical laws, but the recent inflation increase has exceeded the model forecast.</p><p>Secondly, we didn't predict the UK policy surprise and pension crisis. We assumed beforehand that the British government's decision-making would conform to rationality and common sense, but this assumption was challenged, and the black swan incident of British policy finally washed away the US, European and Treasury Bond markets.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the past two months, we believe that the \"nonlinearity\" of the post-epidemic world needs more attention. Our fundamental analysis can only derive the average path and end price of asset prices, but nonlinear events may cause asset prices to fluctuate. With the increase, it can completely deviate from the equilibrium price significantly, and it will take longer to converge to the equilibrium price.</p><p><b>Therefore, while we maintain our forecast of a 10-year US Treasury yields downward to 3% unchanged, we extend the time for our view to be fulfilled to 2022Q4-2023Q1.</b></p><p><b>Predicting asset prices requires attention to a new nonlinear event-financial market risk</b></p><p>Before October, most nonlinear events pushed up US Treasury yields, but now there may be a kind of nonlinear event-financial market risk-that has become a force to depress US Treasury yields. The Fed can choose to sacrifice economic growth to control inflation, but it may not be able to accept financial market disorder and financial crisis.</p><p>This rate hike cycle is faster than most rate hike cycles in history, but the complexity of the current financial market is far greater than that of decades ago, and some institutions and markets may have difficulty adapting to the sudden high interest rate environment.</p><p>Take the British crisis as an example. After the collapse of the British debt, the leverage ratio of pension LDI investment was exposed, and the Bank of England was forced to choose a \"temporary QE\" situation to stabilize the market. We believe that the markets of other countries may hide similar problems, and the policy response after the financial market shock may also be close to the choice of the Bank of England.</p><p>At present, in addition to the problems exposed in the operation of the U.S. bond market, we believe that the risk accumulation of high-yield corporate bonds in developed markets and sovereign bonds in emerging markets cannot be ignored. In fact, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that Fed officials have begun to pay attention to the risk of \"excessive tightening\" and may slow down rate hike at the December Fed meeting.</p><p>Although it is not the baseline scenario, we believe that the possibility of the Fed's early adjustment of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet policies in 2023 needs to be considered. US Treasury yields may continue to fluctuate widely in 2023, but the final decline may exceed expectations.</p><p>Chart: This rate hike cycle is faster than most rate hike cycles in history<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069d60f2e3758a0a52d29b94446fa19e\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: UK long-term interest rates plummet after UK announced bond purchase plan<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e93df97be61997498ed3e69b299ae65\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3MDMzMjg0MA==&mid=2247601045&idx=3&sn=b8dfe84c5f8f0719e88737f5eb960664&chksm=ead1ad52dda62444336398ae14e05f0caed6de36bdc41968a79a4939945a6c3ac160344636d8&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=102559g8boEyr8XpemFd7AB4&sharer_sharetime=1666657418894&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">中金点睛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb1600a275cdb440167b676a1a207e1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3MDMzMjg0MA==&mid=2247601045&idx=3&sn=b8dfe84c5f8f0719e88737f5eb960664&chksm=ead1ad52dda62444336398ae14e05f0caed6de36bdc41968a79a4939945a6c3ac160344636d8&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=102559g8boEyr8XpemFd7AB4&sharer_sharetime=1666657418894&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130690374","content_text":"中金认为，目前美债市场可能已经接近定价“失灵”的边缘，这与2020年4月的石油形势类似，市场已经把当前宏观环境的定价打到极致，而未来形势逆转的可能性较高，美债利率大幅下行是大概率事件。文/中金大类资产研究：李昭 齐伟 杨晓卿 王汉锋美债市场流动性已接近2020年3月市场“失灵”时的水平近日十年期美债利率盘中一度越过4.3%，引发市场关注。我们认为利率定价已经明显脱离均衡价格，受到以下几个因素影响：1）债券市场流动性过差。目前美联储账户上仍有2万亿美元隔夜逆回购，市场总体不缺美元流动性。但是今年宏观政策与市场波动性太大，同时美债存量增加导致做市商交易困难，美债市场存在严重流动性问题。可以用债券定价误差来衡量流动性：把市场上所有美债的久期定价模型的定价误差汇总，这个误差越大，说明市场上的定价扭曲越严重，市场流动性越差。定价误差数据显示目前美债市场流动性已经接近2020年3月在疫情影响下市场“失灵”时的水平，当时美联储被迫介入开始“无限量QE”，恢复债券市场正常运行。目前美债市场可能已经接近定价“失灵”的边缘，即使投资者认为利率明显偏离合理价格，也不敢逆市加仓交易。图表：美债市场流动性已接近2020年3月市场“失灵”时的水平资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：美联储账户上仍有2万亿美元规模隔夜逆回购资料来源：Haver Analytics，中金公司研究部图表：近期美债市场波动性过高资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：期货市场预期加息终点接近5%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部2）英国政策黑天鹅事件成为压垮全球债券市场的最后一根稻草，英国债市直接崩盘，养老金出现偿付危机，全球市场联动波及美债。受流动性偏低制约，虽然目前英国风险已经大幅缓解，美债利率并没有对基本面变化有明显反映。3）美国8-9月份CPI通胀超出预期，美联储维持鹰派表态，市场预期加息的终点一度接近5%，形成“通胀恐慌”。2022年的美债行情与2020年的石油行情有相似之处在全球大类资产中，上一个明显脱离基本面价格的资产可能是石油。2020年初受疫情冲击，石油需求大幅削减，油价断崖式下跌。由于石油是具有确定工业价值的资源品，并且疫情的负面冲击终将过去，只要下跌幅度足够大，理应提供确定性上涨机会。2020年3月，市场定价已把当时的困境演绎到极致，而未来形势反转又无悬念，因此投资者选择在油价低位“抄底”。但意外发生，储油能力出现暂时性短缺，交割机制导致油价彻底脱离基本面，WTI石油期货价格4月份跌至-37美元每桶，给投资者造成损失。事后来看，选择在2020年3-4月抄底石油的投资者对基本面的判断完全正确，未来2年油价从负数快速上涨到130美元，是全球大类资产中表现最亮眼的资产。如果在4月份承受损失后放弃基本面分析，会错过这波十年一遇的石油超级周期。图表：WTI原油价格2020年一度跌至-37美元/桶资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：过去两年内，石油是全球大类资产中表现最亮眼的资产（美元计价，全收益回报率）资料来源：Wind，Bloomberg，中金公司研究部2022年10月的美债形势与2020年4月的石油形势类似，市场已经把当前宏观环境的定价打到极致，而未来形势逆转的可能性较高。当前看，通胀居高不下，联储激进紧缩，理应推高利率。但即使假设联储加息至4.8%停止，十年期美债利率均衡价格也仅为3.2%，市场定价已经高于均衡价格接近100bp。往前看，美国经济进入衰退已成定局，经济放缓将带来通胀明显改善，我们认为美债利率大幅下行也是大概率事件。但是若10月份抄底美债，也会承受较多损失。过去2个月我们对美债市场走势的预测出现较大偏差，但参考2020年的经验，我们认为不宜过度追随趋势而忽视基本面分析的信号。图表：假设联储加息终点在4.8%，十年期美债利率2022年底的均衡价格在3.2%左右资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部美债利率预测，我们看对了什么，看错了什么，学到了什么我们于2021年12月预测2022年美债利率大幅上行，2022年4月预测利率双向波动，6月预测利率大幅回落，随后转为中性，至此我们对于市场形势的预测基本兑现。但9月份以来，我们没有预测到美债利率从3%骤升至4.3%，主要由于没有充分考虑“非线性”与“小概率”事件的影响：图表：我们准确判断出美债利率2021年底开始的上行趋势以及2022年6月后的回落趋势，但没有预测到美债利率冲高到4%以上资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部首先，美债利率大幅上行归根结底是CPI通胀增速超预期的结果。我们对CPI的预测模型建立在经济数据的统计规律之上，隐含假设是数据的领先滞后关系可以根据历史规律线性外推，但近期通胀上涨幅度超出模型预测。其次，我们没有预测到英国政策意外与养老金危机。我们事前假设英国政府决策会符合理性与常识，但这一假设受到挑战，英国政策黑天鹅事件最终冲垮了美欧国债市场。吸取过去两个月的经验，我们认为疫情后世界的“非线性”需要更多关注，我们的基本面分析只能得出资产价格的平均路径与终点价格，但非线性事件可能使资产价格波动增大，完全可以大幅脱离均衡价格，并且需要更长的时间收敛至均衡价格。因此，虽然我们维持十年期美债利率下行至3%的预测不变，但将观点兑现的时间延长至2022Q4-2023Q1。预测资产价格需要关注新的非线性事件——金融市场风险10月份以前，大部分的非线性事件都推高美债利率，现在可能有一类非线性事件——金融市场风险——成为压低美债利率的力量。美联储可以选择牺牲经济增长控制通胀，但是可能无法接受金融市场紊乱与金融危机。本次加息周期速度快于历史上大部分加息周期，但当前金融市场的复杂程度远远超过几十年以前，一些机构与市场可能难以适应突如其来的高利率环境。以英国危机为例，在英债崩盘后，暴露了养老金LDI投资的杠杆率问题，英国央行也被迫选择以“暂时性QE”的形势稳定市场。我们认为其他国家的市场可能隐藏类似的问题，金融市场震荡后政策应对也可能接近英国央行的选择。目前除美债市场运行已经暴露问题以外，我们认为发达市场高收益公司债与新兴市场主权债的风险积累也不容忽视。事实上，近期华尔街日报报道联储官员已经开始关注“紧缩过度”风险，并有可能在12月美联储会议上放慢加息速度。尽管并非基准情景，但我们认为需要考虑美联储2023年提前调整加息与缩表政策的可能性。美债利率2023年可能继续宽幅震荡，但最终下行幅度可能超出预期。图表：本次加息周期速度快于历史上大部分加息周期资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：英国宣布购债计划后英国长端利率急跌资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989743527,"gmtCreate":1666097641270,"gmtModify":1676537705341,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989743527","repostId":"662077932","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":662077932,"gmtCreate":1666097363130,"gmtModify":1676537705333,"author":{"id":"3467720335878530","authorId":"3467720335878530","name":"报告财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/203f2436005c0b2a84a49f934dc19921","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3467720335878530","idStr":"3467720335878530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"【報告財經｜NFT電子書初創公司Book.io獲貝塔斯曼子公司BDMI投資】10 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LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$D","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/19ffbffa22833ef3c771a50a086cac61","width":"750","height":"1847"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938758454","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933441441,"gmtCreate":1662339992784,"gmtModify":1676537039428,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hao&nbsp;","listText":"Hao&nbsp;","text":"Hao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933441441","repostId":"1113274619","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113274619","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1662332879,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113274619?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-05 07:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | Apple and Huawei new product launch conference; Nio, Bilibili and others hit earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113274619","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（9.5-9.9）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，中国8月财新服务业PMI、美国8月ISM非制造业PMI、中国8月贸易帐、中国8月外汇储备、中国8月CPI等陆续公布。央行动态方面，在美联储会议静默期前","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (9.5-9.9):</b></p><p>In terms of economic data, China's August Caixin service PMI, U.S. August ISM non-manufacturing PMI, China's August trade balance, China's August foreign exchange reserves, and China's August CPI were released one after another. In terms of central bank dynamics, before the silent period of the Fed meeting, the speeches of Cleveland Fed President Mester, Fed Vice Chairman Brainard, Fed Chairman Powell and other voting committee members deserve investors' attention. In terms of financial reports, Nio Motors, GameStop, Bilibili, Tiger Securities, etc. are worthy of attention. In terms of events, Apple will hold an autumn conference at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. In addition, due to the holiday, U.S. stocks were closed on Monday. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, changes in the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index series took effect on Monday.<b>Keywords for Monday, September 5: U.S. stocks closed, Hang Seng Index quarterly inspection takes effect, China's August Caixin services PMI, Hongjiu Fruit listing</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97c99961a1698c28ac54a3aebfcf2503\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday is American Labor Day, and U.S. stocks are closed for one day. For Hong Kong stocks, changes in constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index series will take effect on the same day.</b></p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>China will release its Caixin Services PMI for August.</p><p>In July, the Caixin China General Service Industry Business Activity Index (Service Industry PMI) was 55.5, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from June. It was in the expansion range for the second consecutive month and hit a new high since May 2021. The prosperity of the service industry continues to rise, indicating that the recovery speed of the service industry is accelerating. The service industry is the biggest absorber of employment. The Caixin service industry employment index, which once fell to the contraction range in June, returned to above the boom-bust line in July. Previously, the official service industry PMI employee index also rebounded, all of which indicate that the employment situation continues to improve against the background of market demand expansion.<b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06689\">Hongjiu Fruit</a>Listed on the Hong Kong stock market. According to CIC, in terms of sales revenue in 2021, the company is the largest durian distributor in China and one of the top five distributors of dragon fruit, mangosteen and longan.</p><p><b>Tuesday, September 6 Keywords: August ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Huawei Mate 50 series release</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2040b28553b3dcbf542d1b601ff1c96d\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of economic data on Tuesday,</b>The United States will announce the August Markit services PMI final value and the August ISM non-manufacturing PMI.</p><p>The final value of the U.S. Markit services PMI in July recorded 47.3, falling below the boom-bust line and the lowest since July 2020. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented that the U.S. economic situation deteriorated significantly in July, and business activities in both manufacturing and service industries were declining. Excluding the months in which stay-at-home policies were implemented in response to the pandemic, the overall output fell the most since the global financial crisis, suggesting that the economy is likely to shrink for a third consecutive quarter.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITB\">Lanting gathers potential</a>Results will be published.</p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>The Huawei Mate 50 series will be officially released on September 6th. Yu Chengdong, managing director of Huawei, said recently that in the upcoming Mate50 series, Huawei will make another breakthrough in communication technology-the technology that pierces the sky.</p><p>According to media reports, well-known TMT industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo once broke the news that Huawei's so-called sky-breaking technology means that the Mate 50 series will support satellite communications and provide emergency text message services.<b>Keywords on Wednesday, September 7: China's August trade account, Nio/GameStop financial report, Cleveland Fed President Mester/Fed Vice Chairman Brainard's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c17780cbbfb5845e16c3b877b98551\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, China will announce its August trade balance, China's August trade balance in US dollars, and China's August foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>Data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 7 showed that in the first seven months, my country's total import and export value was 23.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. In July, my country's total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. Among them, exports were 2.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9%; Imports were 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%; The trade surplus was 682.69 billion yuan, an increase of 90.9%. Data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows that as of the end of July 2022, my country's foreign exchange reserves were US $3,104.1 billion, an increase of US $32.8 billion or 1.07% from the end of June. Driven by factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes, the scale of foreign exchange reserves increased in July. In addition, the U.S. trade balance and global supply chain pressure index in July deserve attention.</p><p>Global supply chain pressure fell to its lowest level since January 2021 in July as port congestion and other obstacles eased, according to the report released by the New York Fed's Global Supply Issues Index. The index is now down from its record high in December last year. It is more than 50%, but it is still well above pre-pandemic levels.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTLB\">Gitlab</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Upward Rongke</a>Results will be announced before the U.S. stock market opens;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Will release earnings after hours.</p><p><b>Regarding the dynamics of the Federal Reserve, you can pay attention to:</b></p><p><ul><li>In 2022, FOMC voting committee member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech on U.S. economic and monetary policy.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech.</p><p></li></ul><b>Keywords for Thursday, September 8: Apple's autumn conference, Federal Reserve's economic situation Beige Book, Powell's speech, Bilibili's financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c19c77b90e9c03bb32a9088808920a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday,</b>Investors who are concerned about commodities can pay attention to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) monthly short-term energy outlook report, which will cover the supply and demand of crude oil, gasoline and other energy sources.</p><p><b>One of the highlights of the day was Apple's autumn conference at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday.</b></p><p>There is speculation that Apple will release a new iPhone. Apple is expected to release four new iPhones, including iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Max, iPhone 14 Pro, and iPhone 14 Pro Max. Apple may also launch new Apple Watches and AirPods, and Apple is also preparing new Mac computers and iPads, but these new products are sometimes announced at another event in October.<b>Regarding the dynamics of the Federal Reserve, you can pay attention to:</b></p><p><ul><li>The Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions. The Federal Reserve releases Beige Book eight times a year, and conducts a thorough survey of the national economic situation through regional reserve banks. This report is an important reference material for the regular monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve will hold its next monetary policy meeting on September 20-21.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech on the outlook for the US economy.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends a conference on monetary policy hosted by the Cato Institute.</p><p></li></ul><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Results will be published.</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, September 9: China's August CPI annual rate, Chicago Fed President Evans's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c146d379f53f0c026ae4d928fcb0711d\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Friday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors can focus on China's August CPI annual rate and August M2 money supply annual rate.</p><p>According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.5% from the previous month; It rose by 2.7% year-on-year. Although the increase was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, it still operated within a reasonable range overall. Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in July, due to the rising prices of pork, fresh vegetables and other food products and seasonal factors, the CPI turned from flat to rising month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded slightly.<b>In terms of Federal Reserve dynamics,</b>You can pay attention to the 2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed President Evans's speech on the economy.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week's preview | Apple and Huawei new product launch conference; Nio, Bilibili and others hit earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week's preview | Apple and Huawei new product launch conference; Nio, Bilibili and others hit earnings\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-05 07:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (9.5-9.9):</b></p><p>In terms of economic data, China's August Caixin service PMI, U.S. August ISM non-manufacturing PMI, China's August trade balance, China's August foreign exchange reserves, and China's August CPI were released one after another. In terms of central bank dynamics, before the silent period of the Fed meeting, the speeches of Cleveland Fed President Mester, Fed Vice Chairman Brainard, Fed Chairman Powell and other voting committee members deserve investors' attention. In terms of financial reports, Nio Motors, GameStop, Bilibili, Tiger Securities, etc. are worthy of attention. In terms of events, Apple will hold an autumn conference at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. In addition, due to the holiday, U.S. stocks were closed on Monday. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, changes in the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index series took effect on Monday.<b>Keywords for Monday, September 5: U.S. stocks closed, Hang Seng Index quarterly inspection takes effect, China's August Caixin services PMI, Hongjiu Fruit listing</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97c99961a1698c28ac54a3aebfcf2503\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday is American Labor Day, and U.S. stocks are closed for one day. For Hong Kong stocks, changes in constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index series will take effect on the same day.</b></p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>China will release its Caixin Services PMI for August.</p><p>In July, the Caixin China General Service Industry Business Activity Index (Service Industry PMI) was 55.5, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from June. It was in the expansion range for the second consecutive month and hit a new high since May 2021. The prosperity of the service industry continues to rise, indicating that the recovery speed of the service industry is accelerating. The service industry is the biggest absorber of employment. The Caixin service industry employment index, which once fell to the contraction range in June, returned to above the boom-bust line in July. Previously, the official service industry PMI employee index also rebounded, all of which indicate that the employment situation continues to improve against the background of market demand expansion.<b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06689\">Hongjiu Fruit</a>Listed on the Hong Kong stock market. According to CIC, in terms of sales revenue in 2021, the company is the largest durian distributor in China and one of the top five distributors of dragon fruit, mangosteen and longan.</p><p><b>Tuesday, September 6 Keywords: August ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Huawei Mate 50 series release</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2040b28553b3dcbf542d1b601ff1c96d\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of economic data on Tuesday,</b>The United States will announce the August Markit services PMI final value and the August ISM non-manufacturing PMI.</p><p>The final value of the U.S. Markit services PMI in July recorded 47.3, falling below the boom-bust line and the lowest since July 2020. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented that the U.S. economic situation deteriorated significantly in July, and business activities in both manufacturing and service industries were declining. Excluding the months in which stay-at-home policies were implemented in response to the pandemic, the overall output fell the most since the global financial crisis, suggesting that the economy is likely to shrink for a third consecutive quarter.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITB\">Lanting gathers potential</a>Results will be published.</p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>The Huawei Mate 50 series will be officially released on September 6th. Yu Chengdong, managing director of Huawei, said recently that in the upcoming Mate50 series, Huawei will make another breakthrough in communication technology-the technology that pierces the sky.</p><p>According to media reports, well-known TMT industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo once broke the news that Huawei's so-called sky-breaking technology means that the Mate 50 series will support satellite communications and provide emergency text message services.<b>Keywords on Wednesday, September 7: China's August trade account, Nio/GameStop financial report, Cleveland Fed President Mester/Fed Vice Chairman Brainard's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c17780cbbfb5845e16c3b877b98551\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, China will announce its August trade balance, China's August trade balance in US dollars, and China's August foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>Data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 7 showed that in the first seven months, my country's total import and export value was 23.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. In July, my country's total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. Among them, exports were 2.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9%; Imports were 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%; The trade surplus was 682.69 billion yuan, an increase of 90.9%. Data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows that as of the end of July 2022, my country's foreign exchange reserves were US $3,104.1 billion, an increase of US $32.8 billion or 1.07% from the end of June. Driven by factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes, the scale of foreign exchange reserves increased in July. In addition, the U.S. trade balance and global supply chain pressure index in July deserve attention.</p><p>Global supply chain pressure fell to its lowest level since January 2021 in July as port congestion and other obstacles eased, according to the report released by the New York Fed's Global Supply Issues Index. The index is now down from its record high in December last year. It is more than 50%, but it is still well above pre-pandemic levels.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTLB\">Gitlab</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Upward Rongke</a>Results will be announced before the U.S. stock market opens;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Will release earnings after hours.</p><p><b>Regarding the dynamics of the Federal Reserve, you can pay attention to:</b></p><p><ul><li>In 2022, FOMC voting committee member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech on U.S. economic and monetary policy.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech.</p><p></li></ul><b>Keywords for Thursday, September 8: Apple's autumn conference, Federal Reserve's economic situation Beige Book, Powell's speech, Bilibili's financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c19c77b90e9c03bb32a9088808920a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday,</b>Investors who are concerned about commodities can pay attention to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) monthly short-term energy outlook report, which will cover the supply and demand of crude oil, gasoline and other energy sources.</p><p><b>One of the highlights of the day was Apple's autumn conference at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday.</b></p><p>There is speculation that Apple will release a new iPhone. Apple is expected to release four new iPhones, including iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Max, iPhone 14 Pro, and iPhone 14 Pro Max. Apple may also launch new Apple Watches and AirPods, and Apple is also preparing new Mac computers and iPads, but these new products are sometimes announced at another event in October.<b>Regarding the dynamics of the Federal Reserve, you can pay attention to:</b></p><p><ul><li>The Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions. The Federal Reserve releases Beige Book eight times a year, and conducts a thorough survey of the national economic situation through regional reserve banks. This report is an important reference material for the regular monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve will hold its next monetary policy meeting on September 20-21.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech on the outlook for the US economy.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends a conference on monetary policy hosted by the Cato Institute.</p><p></li></ul><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Results will be published.</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, September 9: China's August CPI annual rate, Chicago Fed President Evans's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c146d379f53f0c026ae4d928fcb0711d\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Friday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors can focus on China's August CPI annual rate and August M2 money supply annual rate.</p><p>According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.5% from the previous month; It rose by 2.7% year-on-year. Although the increase was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, it still operated within a reasonable range overall. Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in July, due to the rising prices of pork, fresh vegetables and other food products and seasonal factors, the CPI turned from flat to rising month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded slightly.<b>In terms of Federal Reserve dynamics,</b>You can pay attention to the 2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed President Evans's speech on the economy.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113274619","content_text":"本周（9.5-9.9）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，中国8月财新服务业PMI、美国8月ISM非制造业PMI、中国8月贸易帐、中国8月外汇储备、中国8月CPI等陆续公布。央行动态方面，在美联储会议静默期前，克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特、美联储副主席布雷纳德、美联储主席鲍威尔等票委讲话值得投资者重点关注。财报方面，值得关注的有蔚来汽车、游戏驿站、哔哩哔哩、老虎证券等。事件方面，苹果将于北京时间周四凌晨1点举行秋季发布会。此外，受节日影响，周一美股休市。港股方面，恒生指数系列成份股变动周一生效。9月5日 周一关键词：美股休市、恒指季检生效、中国8月财新服务业PMI、洪九果品上市周一是美国劳工节，美股休市一日。港股方面，恒生指数系列的成份股变动于当日生效。经济数据方面，中国将公布8月财新服务业PMI。7月财新中国通用服务业经营活动指数（服务业PMI）为55.5，较6月上升1.0个百分点，连续第二个月位于扩张区间，并且创2021年5月以来新高。服务业景气度继续上升，显示服务业恢复速度加快。服务业是就业最大吸纳器。6月份一度跌落至收缩区间的财新服务业就业指数，7月份重回荣枯线以上。此前官方服务业PMI从业人员指数亦出现回升，这些都表明市场需求扩张背景下，就业状况持续改善。新股方面，洪九果品在港股上市。根据灼识咨询，按2021年的销售收入计，公司是中国最大的榴莲分销商，以及火龙果、山竹及龙眼的前五大分销商之一。9月6日 周二关键词：8月ISM非制造业PMI、华为Mate 50系列发布周二，经济数据方面，美国将公布8月Markit服务业PMI终值、8月ISM非制造业PMI。美国7月Markit服务业PMI终值录得47.3，跌破荣枯线，为2020年7月以来新低。标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson对此评价称，美国经济状况在7月份显著恶化，制造业和服务业的商业活动都在下降。排除为应对疫情实行居家政策的月份，整体产出降幅是全球金融危机以来最大的，这表明经济很有可能连续第三个季度萎缩。财报方面，金山云和兰亭集势将公布业绩。事件方面，华为Mate 50系列将于9月6日正式发布。华为常务董事余承东日前表示，在即将发布的Mate50系列上，华为将在通讯技术上再有突破——向上捅破天的技术。据媒体报道，知名TMT行业分析师郭明錤曾爆料，华为所谓向上捅破天的技术，是指Mate 50系列将支持卫星通信，提供紧急短信服务。9月7日 周三关键词：中国8月贸易帐、蔚来/游戏驿站财报、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特/美联储副主席布雷纳德发言周三，经济数据方面，中国将公布8月贸易帐、中国8月以美元计算贸易帐、中国8月外汇储备。海关总署8月7日公布的数据显示，前7个月，我国进出口总值23.6万亿元，同比增长10.4%。7月份，我国进出口总值3.81万亿元，同比增长16.6%。其中，出口2.25万亿元，增长23.9%；进口1.56万亿元，增长7.4%；贸易顺差6826.9亿元，扩大90.9%。国家外汇管理局公布的数据显示，截至2022年7月末，我国外汇储备规模为31041亿美元，较6月末上升328亿美元，升幅为1.07%。在汇率折算、资产价格变化等因素综合推动下，7月外汇储备规模上升。此外，美国7月贸易帐及全球供应链压力指数值得关注。纽约联储发布的全球供应问题指数报告称，随着港口拥堵和其他障碍的缓解，7月份全球供应链压力降至2021年1月以来的最低水平，该指数目前比去年12月的创纪录高点下降了50%以上，但仍远高于疫情前的水平。财报方面，蔚来、Gitlab、向上融科将于美股盘前公布业绩；游戏驿站将于盘后发布财报。美联储动态方面，可留意：2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。美联储副主席布雷纳德发表讲话。9月8日 周四关键词：苹果秋季发布会、美联储经济状况褐皮书、鲍威尔讲话、B站财报周四，关注大宗商品的投资者可留意，美国能源信息署(EIA)的月度短期能源展望报告，其中将涉及原油、汽油等能源的供需情况。当日的一大看点是北京时间周四凌晨1点的苹果秋季发布会。外界猜测，苹果将发布新款iPhone。预计苹果将发布四款新的iPhone，包括iPhone 14、iPhone 14 Max、iPhone 14 Pro和iPhone 14 Pro Max。苹果还可能推出新的Apple Watch和AirPods，苹果也在准备新的Mac电脑和iPad，但这些新产品有时会在10月份的另一场活动中发布。美联储动态方面，可留意：美联储公布经济状况褐皮书。美联储每年发布8次褐皮书，通过地区储备银行对全美经济形势进行摸底。该报告是美联储货币政策例会的重要参考资料。美联储将于9月20日-21日召开下一次货币政策会议。美联储副主席布雷纳德就美国经济前景发表讲话。美联储主席鲍威尔参加卡托研究所举办的有关货币政策的会议。财报方面，哔哩哔哩和高途将公布业绩。9月9日 周五关键词：中国8月CPI年率、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯讲话周五，经济数据方面，投资者可重点关注中国8月CPI年率及8月M2货币供应年率。国家统计局发布数据显示，7月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月持平转为上涨0.5%；同比上涨2.7%，涨幅虽比上月扩大0.2个百分点，但总体仍运行在合理区间。国家统计局城市司高级统计师董莉娟表示，7月份，受猪肉、鲜菜等食品价格上涨及季节性因素影响，CPI环比由平转涨，同比涨幅略有扩大。美联储动态方面，可留意2023年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯就经济发表讲话。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933446513,"gmtCreate":1662340109632,"gmtModify":1676537039481,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IMPP\">$Imperial Petroleum Inc(IMPP)$</a>Zhang&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IMPP\">$Imperial Petroleum Inc(IMPP)$</a>Zhang&nbsp;","text":"$Imperial Petroleum Inc(IMPP)$Zhang","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/129fdd2a1386e2a3d3793ede003fca0e","width":"640","height":"2024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933446513","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034069898,"gmtCreate":1647736678027,"gmtModify":1676534261254,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034069898","repostId":"2220018708","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220018708","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647645660,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220018708?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-19 07:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Gurman: Apple is not working with Porsche on cars","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220018708","media":"智通财经","summary":"【Gurman：苹果没有和保时捷在汽车上合作】据报道，德国汽车制造商保时捷的CEO在今日的年度新闻发布会上表示，已与苹果公司讨论了合作项目。保时捷CEO Oliver Blume表示，该公司已与苹果公...","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports, the CEO of German automaker Porsche said at today's annual press conference that he has cooperated with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Companies discussed collaborative projects. Porsche CEO Oliver Blume said the company has discussed \"exciting joint projects\" with Apple but has not yet decided whether to proceed. Regarding this matter, netizens have speculated whether Apple wants to cooperate with Porsche to produce its own Apple Car, and MarkGurman revealed that he has at least seen no signs of cooperation between Apple and Porsche in the field of car manufacturing. What he knows about Apple Cars include: using iPhone to control air conditioners, seats, radios and other in-vehicle equipment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gurman: Apple is not working with Porsche on cars</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGurman: Apple is not working with Porsche on cars\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-19 07:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports, the CEO of German automaker Porsche said at today's annual press conference that he has cooperated with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Companies discussed collaborative projects. Porsche CEO Oliver Blume said the company has discussed \"exciting joint projects\" with Apple but has not yet decided whether to proceed. Regarding this matter, netizens have speculated whether Apple wants to cooperate with Porsche to produce its own Apple Car, and MarkGurman revealed that he has at least seen no signs of cooperation between Apple and Porsche in the field of car manufacturing. What he knows about Apple Cars include: using iPhone to control air conditioners, seats, radios and other in-vehicle equipment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://global.eastmoney.com/a/202203192315828649.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8bf4565bc4c9ea6e0ff587a10365663","relate_stocks":{"BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4573":"虚拟现实","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念"},"source_url":"http://global.eastmoney.com/a/202203192315828649.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2220018708","content_text":"据报道，德国汽车制造商保时捷的CEO在今日的年度新闻发布会上表示，已与苹果公司讨论了合作项目。保时捷CEO Oliver Blume表示，该公司已与苹果公司讨论了“令人兴奋的共同项目”，但尚未决定是否继续进行。对于这件事，网友纷纷猜测苹果是不是要跟保时捷合作生产自己的Apple Car，而MarkGurman透露称，他至少目前没有看到过苹果跟保时捷在造车领域进行合作的迹象，他所了解的苹果汽车包括：使用iPhone控制空调、座椅、收音机等车载设备。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967204469,"gmtCreate":1670329975452,"gmtModify":1676538345135,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S51.SI\">$胜科海事(S51.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S51.SI\">$胜科海事(S51.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984587839","repostId":"2281632990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984587378,"gmtCreate":1667693173295,"gmtModify":1676537951699,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984587378","repostId":"1156722685","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156722685","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667615253,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156722685?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-05 10:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Fang Xinghai: Promote the implementation of the reform of the overseas listing system for enterprises, and support all types of enterprises to list overseas in accordance with laws and regulations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156722685","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月5日电，证监会副主席方星海在第五届虹桥国际经济论坛“中国资本市场高质量对外开放”分论坛上的致辞表示，将不断完善相关制度安排，进一步便利境内外投资者跨境投资，更好支持企业跨境融资发展。健全GDR、","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On November 5th, Fang Xinghai, Vice Chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, attended the 5th Hongqiao International Economic Forum \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>The speech at the sub-forum \"High-quality Market Opening to the Outside World\" stated that relevant institutional arrangements will be continuously improved to further facilitate cross-border investment by domestic and foreign investors and better support the development of cross-border financing for enterprises. Improve market interconnection mechanisms such as GDR and CDR issuance, promote the implementation of the reform of the overseas listing system for enterprises, and support all kinds of enterprises to list overseas in accordance with laws and regulations. Strengthen pragmatic cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong capital markets, expand the stock target of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, include more A-share listed companies, support Hong Kong to launch RMB stock trading counters, support and cooperate with Hong Kong to launch Treasury Bond futures in Hong Kong, and realize the complementary advantages of the two places. Complementary and coordinated development.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fang Xinghai: Promote the implementation of the reform of the overseas listing system for enterprises, and support all types of enterprises to list overseas in accordance with laws and regulations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFang Xinghai: Promote the implementation of the reform of the overseas listing system for enterprises, and support all types of enterprises to list overseas in accordance with laws and regulations\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-05 10:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On November 5th, Fang Xinghai, Vice Chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, attended the 5th Hongqiao International Economic Forum \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>The speech at the sub-forum \"High-quality Market Opening to the Outside World\" stated that relevant institutional arrangements will be continuously improved to further facilitate cross-border investment by domestic and foreign investors and better support the development of cross-border financing for enterprises. Improve market interconnection mechanisms such as GDR and CDR issuance, promote the implementation of the reform of the overseas listing system for enterprises, and support all kinds of enterprises to list overseas in accordance with laws and regulations. Strengthen pragmatic cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong capital markets, expand the stock target of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, include more A-share listed companies, support Hong Kong to launch RMB stock trading counters, support and cooperate with Hong Kong to launch Treasury Bond futures in Hong Kong, and realize the complementary advantages of the two places. Complementary and coordinated development.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9635eb271432f5c92670ddd7726225b","relate_stocks":{"HTSC.UK":"华泰证券"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156722685","content_text":"11月5日电，证监会副主席方星海在第五届虹桥国际经济论坛“中国资本市场高质量对外开放”分论坛上的致辞表示，将不断完善相关制度安排，进一步便利境内外投资者跨境投资，更好支持企业跨境融资发展。健全GDR、CDR发行等市场互联互通机制，推动企业境外上市制度改革落地实施，支持各类企业依法依规赴境外上市。加强内地与香港资本市场务实合作，扩大沪深港通股票标的，将更多A股上市公司纳入，支持香港推出人民币股票交易柜台，支持和协同港方在香港推出国债期货，实现两地优势互补、协同发展。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00170":0.9,"HTSC.UK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988669991,"gmtCreate":1666744393813,"gmtModify":1676537798603,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988669991","repostId":"1184763379","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981556684,"gmtCreate":1666572457648,"gmtModify":1676537769007,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981556684","repostId":"1190335901","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981878626,"gmtCreate":1666485153765,"gmtModify":1676537759899,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981878626","repostId":"1130690374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130690374","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666672819,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130690374?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-25 12:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: U.S. debt 2022 = oil 2020?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130690374","media":"中金点睛","summary":"美债利率大幅下行是大概率事件。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>CICC believes that the current U.S. bond market may be close to the edge of pricing \"failure\", which is similar to the oil situation in April 2020. The market has priced the current macro environment to the extreme, and the possibility of future situation reversal is high., a sharp decline in US Treasury yields is a high probability event.</b>Text/CICC Asset Research: Li Zhao, Qi Wei, Yang Xiaoqing, Wang Hanfeng</p><p><b>U.S. bond market liquidity is close to levels seen in March 2020 when the market \"failed\"</b></p><p>Recently, the ten-year US Treasury yields once exceeded 4.3% in intraday trading, attracting market attention. We believe that interest rate pricing has obviously deviated from the equilibrium price, which is affected by the following factors:</p><p><b>1) The liquidity of the bond market is too poor.</b>At present, there are still US $2 trillion in overnight reverse repurchases in the Federal Reserve account, and the market is generally not short of US dollar liquidity. However, this year's macro policies and market volatility are too great. At the same time, the increase in U.S. bond stocks has made it difficult for market makers to trade, and there are serious liquidity problems in the U.S. bond market.</p><p>Bond pricing errors can be used to measure liquidity: summarize the pricing errors of the duration pricing models of all U.S. bonds in the market. The greater the error, the more serious the pricing distortion in the market and the worse the market liquidity.</p><p>Pricing error data shows that the current liquidity of the U.S. bond market is close to the level when the market \"failed\" under the influence of the epidemic in March 2020. At that time, the Federal Reserve was forced to intervene and start \"unlimited QE\" to restore the normal operation of the bond market.</p><p>At present, the U.S. bond market may be close to the edge of pricing \"failure\". Even if investors believe that interest rates have significantly deviated from reasonable prices, they dare not increase their positions against the market trend.</p><p>Chart: U.S. bond market liquidity is close to the level when the market \"failed\" in March 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e1bbae6ca2f1267f2a9d51f869a9b8\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: There are still $2 trillion in overnight reverse repurchases on the Fed's account<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17fc7ab848330686a233a34f627c3fba\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Haver Analytics, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: The recent volatility in the U.S. bond market is too high</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fe1703f36e6de9e8c690ecbc1be3fc2\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: The futures market expects the end of the rate hike to be close to 5%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd72d6c195ffadcf706bac9f98da2e6\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>2) The black swan event of UK policy became the last straw that crushed global bond markets</b>, the UK bond market collapsed directly, the pension fund experienced a repayment crisis, and the global market linkage spread to U.S. debt. Restricted by low liquidity, although the risks in the UK have been greatly alleviated at present, the US Treasury yields has not clearly reflected the changes in fundamentals.</p><p><b>3) U.S. CPI inflation exceeded expectations in August-September</b>, the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance, and the market expected the end of the rate hike to be close to 5% at one point, forming an \"inflation panic\".</p><p><b>The U.S. bond market in 2022 is similar to the oil market in 2020</b></p><p>Among the major global asset classes, the last asset to clearly deviate from the fundamental price may be oil. Affected by the epidemic at the beginning of 2020, oil demand was greatly reduced, and oil prices fell off a cliff. Since oil is a resource product with certain industrial value, and the negative impact of the epidemic will eventually pass, as long as the decline is large enough, it should provide a definite rise opportunity.</p><p>In March 2020, market pricing has interpreted the predicament at that time to the extreme, and there is no suspense that the future situation will reverse, so investors choose to \"buy the bottom\" at low oil prices. However, unexpected, there was a temporary shortage of oil storage capacity, and the delivery mechanism caused oil prices to completely deviate from fundamentals. WTI oil futures prices fell to-$37 per barrel in April, causing losses to investors.</p><p>In hindsight, investors who chose to buy oil at the bottom in March-April 2020 were completely correct about the fundamentals. In the next two years, the oil price will rise rapidly from negative to US $130, making it the most eye-catching asset among the world's major asset classes. If you abandon fundamental analysis after suffering losses in April, you will miss this once-in-a-decade oil supercycle.</p><p>Chart: WTI crude oil prices once fell to-US $37/barrel in 2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daba71b7434bf85b738a81b3dc6446a8\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: In the past two years, oil has been the most eye-catching asset among the world's major assets (denominated in US dollars, full return rate)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1dee1eb7c5dfd6961744e8398da207\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Wind, Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>The U.S. debt situation in October 2022 is similar to the oil situation in April 2020. The market has priced the current macro environment to the extreme, and the possibility of a future situation reversal is high.</p><p>At present, inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve is aggressively tightening, which should push up interest rates. But even assuming that the Fed's rate hike stops at 4.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields equilibrium price is only 3.2%, and the market pricing is already close to 100bp higher than the equilibrium price.</p><p>Looking forward, it is a foregone conclusion that the U.S. economy will enter a recession, and the economic slowdown will bring about a significant improvement in inflation. We believe that a sharp decline in US Treasury yields is also a high probability event. However, if you buy U.S. debt at the bottom in October, you will also suffer more losses.</p><p>In the past two months, our forecasts for the trend of the U.S. bond market have been quite deviated, but referring to the experience of 2020,<b>We believe that it is not appropriate to follow the trend too much and ignore the signals of fundamental analysis.</b></p><p>Chart: Assuming that the Fed's rate hike endpoint is 4.8%, the equilibrium price of the ten-year US Treasury yields at the end of 2022 is around 3.2%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833929fa8e4b3e0f1b1737570137f9a5\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>US Treasury yields predicts, what we see right, what we see wrong, and what we learn</b></p><p>In December 2021, we predicted that the US Treasury yields will rise sharply in 2022, in April 2022, we predicted that the interest rate will fluctuate in both directions, and in June, we predicted that the interest rate will fall sharply, and then turn neutral. So far, our forecast of the market situation has basically fulfilled.</p><p>However, since September, we have not predicted that the US Treasury yields will rise sharply from 3% to 4.3%, mainly because we have not fully considered the impact of \"nonlinear\" and \"small probability\" events:</p><p>Chart: We accurately judged the upward trend of US Treasury yields starting at the end of 2021 and the downward trend after June 2022, but did not predict that US Treasury yields would surge above 4%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6c25f6fe73d99757f5ed5f75b075a7\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>First of all, the sharp rise in US Treasury yields is ultimately the result of CPI inflation growth that exceeds expectations. Our CPI forecast model is based on the statistical laws of economic data. The implicit assumption is that the leading and lagging relationship of the data can be linearly extrapolated according to historical laws, but the recent inflation increase has exceeded the model forecast.</p><p>Secondly, we didn't predict the UK policy surprise and pension crisis. We assumed beforehand that the British government's decision-making would conform to rationality and common sense, but this assumption was challenged, and the black swan incident of British policy finally washed away the US, European and Treasury Bond markets.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the past two months, we believe that the \"nonlinearity\" of the post-epidemic world needs more attention. Our fundamental analysis can only derive the average path and end price of asset prices, but nonlinear events may cause asset prices to fluctuate. With the increase, it can completely deviate from the equilibrium price significantly, and it will take longer to converge to the equilibrium price.</p><p><b>Therefore, while we maintain our forecast of a 10-year US Treasury yields downward to 3% unchanged, we extend the time for our view to be fulfilled to 2022Q4-2023Q1.</b></p><p><b>Predicting asset prices requires attention to a new nonlinear event-financial market risk</b></p><p>Before October, most nonlinear events pushed up US Treasury yields, but now there may be a kind of nonlinear event-financial market risk-that has become a force to depress US Treasury yields. The Fed can choose to sacrifice economic growth to control inflation, but it may not be able to accept financial market disorder and financial crisis.</p><p>This rate hike cycle is faster than most rate hike cycles in history, but the complexity of the current financial market is far greater than that of decades ago, and some institutions and markets may have difficulty adapting to the sudden high interest rate environment.</p><p>Take the British crisis as an example. After the collapse of the British debt, the leverage ratio of pension LDI investment was exposed, and the Bank of England was forced to choose a \"temporary QE\" situation to stabilize the market. We believe that the markets of other countries may hide similar problems, and the policy response after the financial market shock may also be close to the choice of the Bank of England.</p><p>At present, in addition to the problems exposed in the operation of the U.S. bond market, we believe that the risk accumulation of high-yield corporate bonds in developed markets and sovereign bonds in emerging markets cannot be ignored. In fact, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that Fed officials have begun to pay attention to the risk of \"excessive tightening\" and may slow down rate hike at the December Fed meeting.</p><p>Although it is not the baseline scenario, we believe that the possibility of the Fed's early adjustment of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet policies in 2023 needs to be considered. US Treasury yields may continue to fluctuate widely in 2023, but the final decline may exceed expectations.</p><p>Chart: This rate hike cycle is faster than most rate hike cycles in history<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069d60f2e3758a0a52d29b94446fa19e\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: UK long-term interest rates plummet after UK announced bond purchase plan<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e93df97be61997498ed3e69b299ae65\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zjdj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: U.S. debt 2022 = oil 2020?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: U.S. debt 2022 = oil 2020?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中金点睛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-25 12:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>CICC believes that the current U.S. bond market may be close to the edge of pricing \"failure\", which is similar to the oil situation in April 2020. The market has priced the current macro environment to the extreme, and the possibility of future situation reversal is high., a sharp decline in US Treasury yields is a high probability event.</b>Text/CICC Asset Research: Li Zhao, Qi Wei, Yang Xiaoqing, Wang Hanfeng</p><p><b>U.S. bond market liquidity is close to levels seen in March 2020 when the market \"failed\"</b></p><p>Recently, the ten-year US Treasury yields once exceeded 4.3% in intraday trading, attracting market attention. We believe that interest rate pricing has obviously deviated from the equilibrium price, which is affected by the following factors:</p><p><b>1) The liquidity of the bond market is too poor.</b>At present, there are still US $2 trillion in overnight reverse repurchases in the Federal Reserve account, and the market is generally not short of US dollar liquidity. However, this year's macro policies and market volatility are too great. At the same time, the increase in U.S. bond stocks has made it difficult for market makers to trade, and there are serious liquidity problems in the U.S. bond market.</p><p>Bond pricing errors can be used to measure liquidity: summarize the pricing errors of the duration pricing models of all U.S. bonds in the market. The greater the error, the more serious the pricing distortion in the market and the worse the market liquidity.</p><p>Pricing error data shows that the current liquidity of the U.S. bond market is close to the level when the market \"failed\" under the influence of the epidemic in March 2020. At that time, the Federal Reserve was forced to intervene and start \"unlimited QE\" to restore the normal operation of the bond market.</p><p>At present, the U.S. bond market may be close to the edge of pricing \"failure\". Even if investors believe that interest rates have significantly deviated from reasonable prices, they dare not increase their positions against the market trend.</p><p>Chart: U.S. bond market liquidity is close to the level when the market \"failed\" in March 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e1bbae6ca2f1267f2a9d51f869a9b8\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: There are still $2 trillion in overnight reverse repurchases on the Fed's account<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17fc7ab848330686a233a34f627c3fba\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Haver Analytics, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: The recent volatility in the U.S. bond market is too high</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fe1703f36e6de9e8c690ecbc1be3fc2\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: The futures market expects the end of the rate hike to be close to 5%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd72d6c195ffadcf706bac9f98da2e6\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>2) The black swan event of UK policy became the last straw that crushed global bond markets</b>, the UK bond market collapsed directly, the pension fund experienced a repayment crisis, and the global market linkage spread to U.S. debt. Restricted by low liquidity, although the risks in the UK have been greatly alleviated at present, the US Treasury yields has not clearly reflected the changes in fundamentals.</p><p><b>3) U.S. CPI inflation exceeded expectations in August-September</b>, the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance, and the market expected the end of the rate hike to be close to 5% at one point, forming an \"inflation panic\".</p><p><b>The U.S. bond market in 2022 is similar to the oil market in 2020</b></p><p>Among the major global asset classes, the last asset to clearly deviate from the fundamental price may be oil. Affected by the epidemic at the beginning of 2020, oil demand was greatly reduced, and oil prices fell off a cliff. Since oil is a resource product with certain industrial value, and the negative impact of the epidemic will eventually pass, as long as the decline is large enough, it should provide a definite rise opportunity.</p><p>In March 2020, market pricing has interpreted the predicament at that time to the extreme, and there is no suspense that the future situation will reverse, so investors choose to \"buy the bottom\" at low oil prices. However, unexpected, there was a temporary shortage of oil storage capacity, and the delivery mechanism caused oil prices to completely deviate from fundamentals. WTI oil futures prices fell to-$37 per barrel in April, causing losses to investors.</p><p>In hindsight, investors who chose to buy oil at the bottom in March-April 2020 were completely correct about the fundamentals. In the next two years, the oil price will rise rapidly from negative to US $130, making it the most eye-catching asset among the world's major asset classes. If you abandon fundamental analysis after suffering losses in April, you will miss this once-in-a-decade oil supercycle.</p><p>Chart: WTI crude oil prices once fell to-US $37/barrel in 2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daba71b7434bf85b738a81b3dc6446a8\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: In the past two years, oil has been the most eye-catching asset among the world's major assets (denominated in US dollars, full return rate)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1dee1eb7c5dfd6961744e8398da207\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Wind, Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>The U.S. debt situation in October 2022 is similar to the oil situation in April 2020. The market has priced the current macro environment to the extreme, and the possibility of a future situation reversal is high.</p><p>At present, inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve is aggressively tightening, which should push up interest rates. But even assuming that the Fed's rate hike stops at 4.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields equilibrium price is only 3.2%, and the market pricing is already close to 100bp higher than the equilibrium price.</p><p>Looking forward, it is a foregone conclusion that the U.S. economy will enter a recession, and the economic slowdown will bring about a significant improvement in inflation. We believe that a sharp decline in US Treasury yields is also a high probability event. However, if you buy U.S. debt at the bottom in October, you will also suffer more losses.</p><p>In the past two months, our forecasts for the trend of the U.S. bond market have been quite deviated, but referring to the experience of 2020,<b>We believe that it is not appropriate to follow the trend too much and ignore the signals of fundamental analysis.</b></p><p>Chart: Assuming that the Fed's rate hike endpoint is 4.8%, the equilibrium price of the ten-year US Treasury yields at the end of 2022 is around 3.2%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833929fa8e4b3e0f1b1737570137f9a5\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>US Treasury yields predicts, what we see right, what we see wrong, and what we learn</b></p><p>In December 2021, we predicted that the US Treasury yields will rise sharply in 2022, in April 2022, we predicted that the interest rate will fluctuate in both directions, and in June, we predicted that the interest rate will fall sharply, and then turn neutral. So far, our forecast of the market situation has basically fulfilled.</p><p>However, since September, we have not predicted that the US Treasury yields will rise sharply from 3% to 4.3%, mainly because we have not fully considered the impact of \"nonlinear\" and \"small probability\" events:</p><p>Chart: We accurately judged the upward trend of US Treasury yields starting at the end of 2021 and the downward trend after June 2022, but did not predict that US Treasury yields would surge above 4%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6c25f6fe73d99757f5ed5f75b075a7\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>First of all, the sharp rise in US Treasury yields is ultimately the result of CPI inflation growth that exceeds expectations. Our CPI forecast model is based on the statistical laws of economic data. The implicit assumption is that the leading and lagging relationship of the data can be linearly extrapolated according to historical laws, but the recent inflation increase has exceeded the model forecast.</p><p>Secondly, we didn't predict the UK policy surprise and pension crisis. We assumed beforehand that the British government's decision-making would conform to rationality and common sense, but this assumption was challenged, and the black swan incident of British policy finally washed away the US, European and Treasury Bond markets.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the past two months, we believe that the \"nonlinearity\" of the post-epidemic world needs more attention. Our fundamental analysis can only derive the average path and end price of asset prices, but nonlinear events may cause asset prices to fluctuate. With the increase, it can completely deviate from the equilibrium price significantly, and it will take longer to converge to the equilibrium price.</p><p><b>Therefore, while we maintain our forecast of a 10-year US Treasury yields downward to 3% unchanged, we extend the time for our view to be fulfilled to 2022Q4-2023Q1.</b></p><p><b>Predicting asset prices requires attention to a new nonlinear event-financial market risk</b></p><p>Before October, most nonlinear events pushed up US Treasury yields, but now there may be a kind of nonlinear event-financial market risk-that has become a force to depress US Treasury yields. The Fed can choose to sacrifice economic growth to control inflation, but it may not be able to accept financial market disorder and financial crisis.</p><p>This rate hike cycle is faster than most rate hike cycles in history, but the complexity of the current financial market is far greater than that of decades ago, and some institutions and markets may have difficulty adapting to the sudden high interest rate environment.</p><p>Take the British crisis as an example. After the collapse of the British debt, the leverage ratio of pension LDI investment was exposed, and the Bank of England was forced to choose a \"temporary QE\" situation to stabilize the market. We believe that the markets of other countries may hide similar problems, and the policy response after the financial market shock may also be close to the choice of the Bank of England.</p><p>At present, in addition to the problems exposed in the operation of the U.S. bond market, we believe that the risk accumulation of high-yield corporate bonds in developed markets and sovereign bonds in emerging markets cannot be ignored. In fact, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that Fed officials have begun to pay attention to the risk of \"excessive tightening\" and may slow down rate hike at the December Fed meeting.</p><p>Although it is not the baseline scenario, we believe that the possibility of the Fed's early adjustment of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet policies in 2023 needs to be considered. US Treasury yields may continue to fluctuate widely in 2023, but the final decline may exceed expectations.</p><p>Chart: This rate hike cycle is faster than most rate hike cycles in history<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069d60f2e3758a0a52d29b94446fa19e\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: UK long-term interest rates plummet after UK announced bond purchase plan<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e93df97be61997498ed3e69b299ae65\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3MDMzMjg0MA==&mid=2247601045&idx=3&sn=b8dfe84c5f8f0719e88737f5eb960664&chksm=ead1ad52dda62444336398ae14e05f0caed6de36bdc41968a79a4939945a6c3ac160344636d8&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=102559g8boEyr8XpemFd7AB4&sharer_sharetime=1666657418894&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">中金点睛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb1600a275cdb440167b676a1a207e1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3MDMzMjg0MA==&mid=2247601045&idx=3&sn=b8dfe84c5f8f0719e88737f5eb960664&chksm=ead1ad52dda62444336398ae14e05f0caed6de36bdc41968a79a4939945a6c3ac160344636d8&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=102559g8boEyr8XpemFd7AB4&sharer_sharetime=1666657418894&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130690374","content_text":"中金认为，目前美债市场可能已经接近定价“失灵”的边缘，这与2020年4月的石油形势类似，市场已经把当前宏观环境的定价打到极致，而未来形势逆转的可能性较高，美债利率大幅下行是大概率事件。文/中金大类资产研究：李昭 齐伟 杨晓卿 王汉锋美债市场流动性已接近2020年3月市场“失灵”时的水平近日十年期美债利率盘中一度越过4.3%，引发市场关注。我们认为利率定价已经明显脱离均衡价格，受到以下几个因素影响：1）债券市场流动性过差。目前美联储账户上仍有2万亿美元隔夜逆回购，市场总体不缺美元流动性。但是今年宏观政策与市场波动性太大，同时美债存量增加导致做市商交易困难，美债市场存在严重流动性问题。可以用债券定价误差来衡量流动性：把市场上所有美债的久期定价模型的定价误差汇总，这个误差越大，说明市场上的定价扭曲越严重，市场流动性越差。定价误差数据显示目前美债市场流动性已经接近2020年3月在疫情影响下市场“失灵”时的水平，当时美联储被迫介入开始“无限量QE”，恢复债券市场正常运行。目前美债市场可能已经接近定价“失灵”的边缘，即使投资者认为利率明显偏离合理价格，也不敢逆市加仓交易。图表：美债市场流动性已接近2020年3月市场“失灵”时的水平资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：美联储账户上仍有2万亿美元规模隔夜逆回购资料来源：Haver Analytics，中金公司研究部图表：近期美债市场波动性过高资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：期货市场预期加息终点接近5%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部2）英国政策黑天鹅事件成为压垮全球债券市场的最后一根稻草，英国债市直接崩盘，养老金出现偿付危机，全球市场联动波及美债。受流动性偏低制约，虽然目前英国风险已经大幅缓解，美债利率并没有对基本面变化有明显反映。3）美国8-9月份CPI通胀超出预期，美联储维持鹰派表态，市场预期加息的终点一度接近5%，形成“通胀恐慌”。2022年的美债行情与2020年的石油行情有相似之处在全球大类资产中，上一个明显脱离基本面价格的资产可能是石油。2020年初受疫情冲击，石油需求大幅削减，油价断崖式下跌。由于石油是具有确定工业价值的资源品，并且疫情的负面冲击终将过去，只要下跌幅度足够大，理应提供确定性上涨机会。2020年3月，市场定价已把当时的困境演绎到极致，而未来形势反转又无悬念，因此投资者选择在油价低位“抄底”。但意外发生，储油能力出现暂时性短缺，交割机制导致油价彻底脱离基本面，WTI石油期货价格4月份跌至-37美元每桶，给投资者造成损失。事后来看，选择在2020年3-4月抄底石油的投资者对基本面的判断完全正确，未来2年油价从负数快速上涨到130美元，是全球大类资产中表现最亮眼的资产。如果在4月份承受损失后放弃基本面分析，会错过这波十年一遇的石油超级周期。图表：WTI原油价格2020年一度跌至-37美元/桶资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：过去两年内，石油是全球大类资产中表现最亮眼的资产（美元计价，全收益回报率）资料来源：Wind，Bloomberg，中金公司研究部2022年10月的美债形势与2020年4月的石油形势类似，市场已经把当前宏观环境的定价打到极致，而未来形势逆转的可能性较高。当前看，通胀居高不下，联储激进紧缩，理应推高利率。但即使假设联储加息至4.8%停止，十年期美债利率均衡价格也仅为3.2%，市场定价已经高于均衡价格接近100bp。往前看，美国经济进入衰退已成定局，经济放缓将带来通胀明显改善，我们认为美债利率大幅下行也是大概率事件。但是若10月份抄底美债，也会承受较多损失。过去2个月我们对美债市场走势的预测出现较大偏差，但参考2020年的经验，我们认为不宜过度追随趋势而忽视基本面分析的信号。图表：假设联储加息终点在4.8%，十年期美债利率2022年底的均衡价格在3.2%左右资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部美债利率预测，我们看对了什么，看错了什么，学到了什么我们于2021年12月预测2022年美债利率大幅上行，2022年4月预测利率双向波动，6月预测利率大幅回落，随后转为中性，至此我们对于市场形势的预测基本兑现。但9月份以来，我们没有预测到美债利率从3%骤升至4.3%，主要由于没有充分考虑“非线性”与“小概率”事件的影响：图表：我们准确判断出美债利率2021年底开始的上行趋势以及2022年6月后的回落趋势，但没有预测到美债利率冲高到4%以上资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部首先，美债利率大幅上行归根结底是CPI通胀增速超预期的结果。我们对CPI的预测模型建立在经济数据的统计规律之上，隐含假设是数据的领先滞后关系可以根据历史规律线性外推，但近期通胀上涨幅度超出模型预测。其次，我们没有预测到英国政策意外与养老金危机。我们事前假设英国政府决策会符合理性与常识，但这一假设受到挑战，英国政策黑天鹅事件最终冲垮了美欧国债市场。吸取过去两个月的经验，我们认为疫情后世界的“非线性”需要更多关注，我们的基本面分析只能得出资产价格的平均路径与终点价格，但非线性事件可能使资产价格波动增大，完全可以大幅脱离均衡价格，并且需要更长的时间收敛至均衡价格。因此，虽然我们维持十年期美债利率下行至3%的预测不变，但将观点兑现的时间延长至2022Q4-2023Q1。预测资产价格需要关注新的非线性事件——金融市场风险10月份以前，大部分的非线性事件都推高美债利率，现在可能有一类非线性事件——金融市场风险——成为压低美债利率的力量。美联储可以选择牺牲经济增长控制通胀，但是可能无法接受金融市场紊乱与金融危机。本次加息周期速度快于历史上大部分加息周期，但当前金融市场的复杂程度远远超过几十年以前，一些机构与市场可能难以适应突如其来的高利率环境。以英国危机为例，在英债崩盘后，暴露了养老金LDI投资的杠杆率问题，英国央行也被迫选择以“暂时性QE”的形势稳定市场。我们认为其他国家的市场可能隐藏类似的问题，金融市场震荡后政策应对也可能接近英国央行的选择。目前除美债市场运行已经暴露问题以外，我们认为发达市场高收益公司债与新兴市场主权债的风险积累也不容忽视。事实上，近期华尔街日报报道联储官员已经开始关注“紧缩过度”风险，并有可能在12月美联储会议上放慢加息速度。尽管并非基准情景，但我们认为需要考虑美联储2023年提前调整加息与缩表政策的可能性。美债利率2023年可能继续宽幅震荡，但最终下行幅度可能超出预期。图表：本次加息周期速度快于历史上大部分加息周期资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：英国宣布购债计划后英国长端利率急跌资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933117623,"gmtCreate":1662251991863,"gmtModify":1676537023312,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hao&nbsp;","listText":"Hao&nbsp;","text":"Hao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933117623","repostId":"1183237993","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939700658,"gmtCreate":1662165440774,"gmtModify":1676537009829,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RS1.SI\">$中国环境资源(RS1.SI)$</a>Dazhang&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RS1.SI\">$中国环境资源(RS1.SI)$</a>Dazhang&nbsp;","text":"$中国环境资源(RS1.SI)$Dazhang","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c330dc439c84771e9b9dff78442cd9f6","width":"640","height":"1622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939700658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930510469,"gmtCreate":1661987873453,"gmtModify":1676536616294,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RS1.SI\">$中国环境资源(RS1.SI)$</a>r","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RS1.SI\">$中国环境资源(RS1.SI)$</a>r","text":"$中国环境资源(RS1.SI)$r","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5155d4b059c8913944e37a9c17a2dc46","width":"640","height":"1622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930510469","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057643061,"gmtCreate":1655513744653,"gmtModify":1676535653833,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IMPP\">$Imperial Petroleum Inc(IMPP)$</a>Gap","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IMPP\">$Imperial Petroleum Inc(IMPP)$</a>Gap","text":"$Imperial Petroleum Inc(IMPP)$Gap","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5bd4f3b8a528d8f07b4ae57ec391684f","width":"640","height":"2024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057643061","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054712764,"gmtCreate":1655427432458,"gmtModify":1676535636806,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASLN\">$Aslan Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(ASLN)$</a>Wokanhao","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASLN\">$Aslan Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(ASLN)$</a>Wokanhao","text":"$Aslan Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(ASLN)$Wokanhao","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dea0e05fe36ef5b375ee19858027e714","width":"640","height":"2070"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054712764","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9058877089,"gmtCreate":1654825233241,"gmtModify":1676535517965,"author":{"id":"4105499377423240","authorId":"4105499377423240","name":"屎奴比","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/8722cf1c7e9057a972dcbf446f6e49f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105499377423240","idStr":"4105499377423240"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9058877089","repostId":"2242361387","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2242361387","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654816080,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242361387?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-10 07:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Yellen: Food and energy prices may rise again, but there are no signs of U.S. recession","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242361387","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"耶伦认为，高通胀不是因为贪婪的企业涨价，“供需是通胀的主要推手”，但指出美国家庭的悲观程度“惊人”。她重申，对抗通胀方面，“首要”看美联储怎么应对。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen acknowledged that there is a risk of further rise in food and energy prices in the United States, but does not believe that the soaring domestic inflation is due to corporate greed and price increases, nor does it believe that there are signs of an economic recession.</p><p>When attending an event on Thursday, the 9th local time, Yellen replied to the question of whether corporate greed is the main cause of inflation: \"Supply and demand are the main drivers of inflation.\" She said that the profit after deducting costs from commodity prices has indeed increased, but this is not the reason for pushing up inflation.</p><p>Yellen reiterated that in fighting inflation, the U.S. government's \"first and foremost\" is to see how the Federal Reserve responds. This is consistent with Yellen's statement at a congressional hearing on Tuesday, when she reiterated the important role of the Federal Reserve in fighting high inflation, and reiterated that lowering inflation is a priority for the government, saying that the current level of inflation facing the United States is \"unacceptable\".</p><p>While believing that food and energy prices may still be at risk of rising, Yellen said on Thursday that there was no sign that a recession was brewing. She expects economic growth to slow. Given the tight supply in the labor market, she hopes to see the growth of the job market slow down faster.</p><p>Last week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>CEO Dimon warned to prepare for the upcoming \"economic storm\" in the United States. However, Yellen said on Thursday that she had talked with bankers from major Wall Street banks such as Dimon, and they believed that the financial situation of American families was good. Yellen said that households still have a large \"savings buffer\" that will support future spending. But even though the current unemployment rate in the United States is close to historical lows, Yellen pointed out that the pessimism of American families is \"alarming\".</p><p>Last Tuesday, after a face-to-face meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and U.S. President Joe Biden, Yellen admitted that her prediction last year that \"inflation is only temporary\" was a misjudgment and did not fully understand the situation at that time. Some unexpected shocks made the situation worse.</p><p>An upcoming biography of Yellen that broke out last Saturday revealed that she tried to persuade the Biden administration to reduce the size of the $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan by one-third last year, but failed. Since then, Yellen has denied urging such cuts in economic stimulus.</p><p>On Thursday, Yellen once again upheld last year's Biden administration stimulus plan, saying that even if she started over, her approach would not be different from last year's.</p><p>At a congressional hearing on Tuesday, Yellen also defended the U.S. government's large-scale fiscal spending plan, blaming high inflation on supply chain disruptions, saying that \"the shortage of chip supply has pushed up inflation, and 1/3 of inflation is caused by new cars and used car markets, which are also affected by chip problems.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Yellen: Food and energy prices may rise again, but there are no signs of U.S. recession</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYellen: Food and energy prices may rise again, but there are no signs of U.S. recession\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-10 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen acknowledged that there is a risk of further rise in food and energy prices in the United States, but does not believe that the soaring domestic inflation is due to corporate greed and price increases, nor does it believe that there are signs of an economic recession.</p><p>When attending an event on Thursday, the 9th local time, Yellen replied to the question of whether corporate greed is the main cause of inflation: \"Supply and demand are the main drivers of inflation.\" She said that the profit after deducting costs from commodity prices has indeed increased, but this is not the reason for pushing up inflation.</p><p>Yellen reiterated that in fighting inflation, the U.S. government's \"first and foremost\" is to see how the Federal Reserve responds. This is consistent with Yellen's statement at a congressional hearing on Tuesday, when she reiterated the important role of the Federal Reserve in fighting high inflation, and reiterated that lowering inflation is a priority for the government, saying that the current level of inflation facing the United States is \"unacceptable\".</p><p>While believing that food and energy prices may still be at risk of rising, Yellen said on Thursday that there was no sign that a recession was brewing. She expects economic growth to slow. Given the tight supply in the labor market, she hopes to see the growth of the job market slow down faster.</p><p>Last week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>CEO Dimon warned to prepare for the upcoming \"economic storm\" in the United States. However, Yellen said on Thursday that she had talked with bankers from major Wall Street banks such as Dimon, and they believed that the financial situation of American families was good. Yellen said that households still have a large \"savings buffer\" that will support future spending. But even though the current unemployment rate in the United States is close to historical lows, Yellen pointed out that the pessimism of American families is \"alarming\".</p><p>Last Tuesday, after a face-to-face meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and U.S. President Joe Biden, Yellen admitted that her prediction last year that \"inflation is only temporary\" was a misjudgment and did not fully understand the situation at that time. Some unexpected shocks made the situation worse.</p><p>An upcoming biography of Yellen that broke out last Saturday revealed that she tried to persuade the Biden administration to reduce the size of the $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan by one-third last year, but failed. Since then, Yellen has denied urging such cuts in economic stimulus.</p><p>On Thursday, Yellen once again upheld last year's Biden administration stimulus plan, saying that even if she started over, her approach would not be different from last year's.</p><p>At a congressional hearing on Tuesday, Yellen also defended the U.S. government's large-scale fiscal spending plan, blaming high inflation on supply chain disruptions, saying that \"the shortage of chip supply has pushed up inflation, and 1/3 of inflation is caused by new cars and used car markets, which are also affected by chip problems.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661601\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6330771b181156aa599e36c15811d6","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661601","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242361387","content_text":"美国财长耶伦承认，美国的食品和能源价格还有进一步上涨的风险，但不认为国内通胀飙升源于企业贪心而涨价，也不认为出现经济衰退的迹象。当地时间9日周四出席活动时，对于企业贪婪是不是通胀的主因这一问题，耶伦回答：“供需是通胀的主要推手。”她说，商品价格扣除成本的利润的确增长了，但这不是推升到通胀的原因。耶伦重申，对抗通胀方面，美国政府“首要的”是看美联储怎么应对。这和耶伦本周二国会听证会的表态一致，当时她重申了美联储在抗击高通胀方面的重要作用，并重申，压低通胀是政府的优先要务，称美国目前面临的“通胀水平不可接受”。虽然认为食品和能源价格可能还有上涨的风险，但本周四耶伦说，没有任何迹象暗示经济衰退在酝酿。她预计经济增长会放缓。鉴于劳动力市场供应紧张，她希望看到就业市场的增长加快放慢。上周摩根大通CEO戴蒙警告，要为即将到来的美国“经济风暴”做准备。不过，耶伦本周四说，她和戴蒙等华尔街大行的银行家会谈过，他们认为，美国家庭的财务状况良好。耶伦称，家庭还有很大的“储蓄缓冲”，将支持未来支出。可即使当前美国失业率接近历史低位，耶伦也指出，美国家庭的悲观程度“惊人”。上周二，在和美联储主席鲍威尔以及美国总统拜登面对面会晤后，耶伦承认，她去年预测的“通胀只是暂时的”是错误的判断，没有完全理解当时的形势，一些意料之外的冲击使形势恶化。上周六爆出的一本将要问世的耶伦传记披露，去年她曾试图劝说拜登政府将1.9万亿美元的经济救助计划规模缩减三分之一，但没能成功。此后耶伦否认曾敦促这样削减经济刺激。本周四，耶伦再次维护去年拜登政府的刺激计划，称就算重新来过，她的做法也不会和去年有什么不同。本周二在国会听证会上，耶伦也为美国政府的大规模财政支出方案辩护，将高通胀归咎于供应链干扰，称“芯片供应短缺问题已经推高通胀，1/3的通胀是新车和二手车市场造成的，这也受到芯片问题的影响。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"QQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SH":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DJX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}