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20分钟前

no brainer to bet startup vs established? thats deep shit later on.

Does DeepSeek Spell Doomsday For Nvidia And Other AI Stocks? Here's What To Know

2024-11-21

Well, dont forget the factor that the price is determined based on how much the buyer required or satisfy their requirement.

Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)

2024-11-08

Hmm...that hedge fund is buying blindly of uncertain hope if continue increasing shares after the recent SMCI problem facing.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-10-22

Then why need to sell or export to China to begin with, even China has own domestic problem in their own economy? It doesnt make sense why need to rely into within China market at this time as China is not only the market.

ASML CEO says US plans to continue applying export pressure to China: report

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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brainer to bet startup vs established? thats deep shit later on.","listText":"no brainer to bet startup vs established? thats deep shit later on.","text":"no brainer to bet startup vs established? thats deep shit later on.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397193811496992","repostId":"2506374233","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2506374233","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1737988752,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2506374233?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-27 22:39","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Does DeepSeek Spell Doomsday For Nvidia And Other AI Stocks? Here's What To Know","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2506374233","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The Chinese AI service has Wall Street worried that it will be cheaper than expected to develop models. But as chip stocks sink, some analysts see a silver lining.That's the big question on the minds of investors Monday, given newfound attention on DeepSeek, a Chinese AI app that has climbed to the top of the U.S. App Store. The company reportedly was able to build a model that functions like OpenAI's ChatGPT without spending to the same degree.\"If DeepSeek's innovations are adopted broadly, an argument can be made that model training costs could come down significantly even at U.S. hyperscalers, potentially raising questions about the need for 1-million XPU/GPU clusters as projected by some,\" Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.That number corresponds to DeepSeek-V3, a \"mixture-of-experts\" model that \"through a number of optimizations and clever techniques can provide similar or better performance vs other large foundational models but requi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Chinese AI service has Wall Street worried that it will be cheaper than expected to develop models. But as chip stocks sink, some analysts see a silver lining.</p><p>What if companies don&#39;t need to spend nearly as much as expected to develop artificial-intelligence models?</p><p>That&#39;s the big question on the minds of investors Monday, given newfound attention on DeepSeek, a Chinese AI app that has climbed to the top of the U.S. App Store. The company reportedly was able to build a model that functions like OpenAI&#39;s ChatGPT without spending to the same degree.</p><p>Wall Street is nervous about what DeepSeek&#39;s success means for companies like Nvidia Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Broadcom Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>, Marvell Technology Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">$(MRVL)$</a> and others that have seen their stocks run up on expectations their businesses would benefit from lofty, AI-fueled capital-expenditure budgets in the years to come.</p><p>&#34;If DeepSeek&#39;s innovations are adopted broadly, an argument can be made that model training costs could come down significantly even at U.S. hyperscalers, potentially raising questions about the need for 1-million XPU/GPU clusters as projected by some,&#34; Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.</p><p>In a post titled &#34;The Short Case for Nvidia Stock,&#34; former quant investor and current Web3 entrepreneur Jeffrey Emanuel said DeepSeek&#39;s success &#34;suggests the entire industry has been massively over-provisioning compute resources.&#34;</p><p>He added that &#34;markets eventually find a way around artificial bottlenecks that generate super-normal profits,&#34; meaning that Nvidia may face &#34;a much rockier path to maintaining its current growth trajectory and margins than its valuation implies..&#34;</p><p>But it&#39;s also worth digging into the numbers that have Wall Street so worried. Specifically, there&#39;s consternation about a paper that suggested DeepSeek&#39;s creator needed to spend $5.6 million to build the model. By contrast, large technology companies in the U.S. are shelling out tens of billions a year on capital expenditures and earmarking much of that for AI infrastructure.</p><p>The $5 million number, though, is highly misleading, according to Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. &#34;Did DeepSeek really &#39;build OpenAI for $5M?&#39; Of course not,&#34; he wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.</p><p>That number corresponds to DeepSeek-V3, a &#34;mixture-of-experts&#34; model that &#34;through a number of optimizations and clever techniques can provide similar or better performance vs other large foundational models but requires a small fraction of the compute resources to train,&#34; according to Rasgon.</p><p>But the $5 million figure &#34;does not include all the other costs associated with prior research and experiments on architectures, algorithms, or data,&#34; he continued. And this type of model is designed &#34;to significantly reduce cost to train and run, given that only a portion of the parameter set is active at any one time.&#34;</p><p>Meanwhile, DeepSeek also has an R1 model that &#34;seems to be causing most of the angst&#34; given its comparisons to OpenAI&#39;s o1 model, according to Rasgon. &#34;DeepSeek&#39;s R1 paper did not quantify the additional resources that were required to develop the R1 model (presumably they were substantial as well),&#34; Rasgon wrote.</p><p>That said, he thinks it&#39;s &#34;absolutely true that DeepSeek&#39;s pricing blows away anything from the competition, with the company pricing their models anywhere from 20-40x cheaper than equivalent models from OpenAI.&#34;</p><p>But he doesn&#39;t buy that this is a &#34;doomsday&#34; situation for semiconductor companies: &#34;We are still going to need, and get, a lot of chips.&#34;</p><p>Cantor Fitzgerald&#39;s C.J. Muse also saw a silver lining. &#34;Innovation is driving down cost of adoption and making AI ubiquitous,&#34; he wrote. &#34;We see this progress as positive in the need for more and more compute over time (not less).&#34;</p><p>Raymond James&#39; Pajjuri made a similar point. &#34;A more logical implication is that DeepSeek will drive even more urgency among U.S. hyperscalers to leverage their key advantage (access to GPUs) to distance themselves from cheaper alternatives,&#34; he wrote.</p><p>Further, while the DeepSeek fears are centered on training costs, he thinks investors should also think about inferencing. Training is the process of showing a model data that will teach it to draw conclusions, and inferencing is the process of putting that model to work based on new data.</p><p>Pajjuri argued that &#34;as training costs decline, more AI use cases could emerge, driving significant growth in inferencing,&#34; including for models like DeepSeek&#39;s R1 and OpenAI&#39;s o1.</p><p>Emanuel, though, wrote that DeepSeek is said to be &#34;nearly 50x more compute efficient&#34; than popular U.S. models on the training side, and perhaps even more so when it comes to inference.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does DeepSeek Spell Doomsday For Nvidia And Other AI Stocks? Here's What To Know</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes DeepSeek Spell Doomsday For Nvidia And Other AI Stocks? Here's What To Know\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-01-27 22:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The Chinese AI service has Wall Street worried that it will be cheaper than expected to develop models. But as chip stocks sink, some analysts see a silver lining.</p><p>What if companies don&#39;t need to spend nearly as much as expected to develop artificial-intelligence models?</p><p>That&#39;s the big question on the minds of investors Monday, given newfound attention on DeepSeek, a Chinese AI app that has climbed to the top of the U.S. App Store. The company reportedly was able to build a model that functions like OpenAI&#39;s ChatGPT without spending to the same degree.</p><p>Wall Street is nervous about what DeepSeek&#39;s success means for companies like Nvidia Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Broadcom Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>, Marvell Technology Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">$(MRVL)$</a> and others that have seen their stocks run up on expectations their businesses would benefit from lofty, AI-fueled capital-expenditure budgets in the years to come.</p><p>&#34;If DeepSeek&#39;s innovations are adopted broadly, an argument can be made that model training costs could come down significantly even at U.S. hyperscalers, potentially raising questions about the need for 1-million XPU/GPU clusters as projected by some,&#34; Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.</p><p>In a post titled &#34;The Short Case for Nvidia Stock,&#34; former quant investor and current Web3 entrepreneur Jeffrey Emanuel said DeepSeek&#39;s success &#34;suggests the entire industry has been massively over-provisioning compute resources.&#34;</p><p>He added that &#34;markets eventually find a way around artificial bottlenecks that generate super-normal profits,&#34; meaning that Nvidia may face &#34;a much rockier path to maintaining its current growth trajectory and margins than its valuation implies..&#34;</p><p>But it&#39;s also worth digging into the numbers that have Wall Street so worried. Specifically, there&#39;s consternation about a paper that suggested DeepSeek&#39;s creator needed to spend $5.6 million to build the model. By contrast, large technology companies in the U.S. are shelling out tens of billions a year on capital expenditures and earmarking much of that for AI infrastructure.</p><p>The $5 million number, though, is highly misleading, according to Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. &#34;Did DeepSeek really &#39;build OpenAI for $5M?&#39; Of course not,&#34; he wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.</p><p>That number corresponds to DeepSeek-V3, a &#34;mixture-of-experts&#34; model that &#34;through a number of optimizations and clever techniques can provide similar or better performance vs other large foundational models but requires a small fraction of the compute resources to train,&#34; according to Rasgon.</p><p>But the $5 million figure &#34;does not include all the other costs associated with prior research and experiments on architectures, algorithms, or data,&#34; he continued. And this type of model is designed &#34;to significantly reduce cost to train and run, given that only a portion of the parameter set is active at any one time.&#34;</p><p>Meanwhile, DeepSeek also has an R1 model that &#34;seems to be causing most of the angst&#34; given its comparisons to OpenAI&#39;s o1 model, according to Rasgon. &#34;DeepSeek&#39;s R1 paper did not quantify the additional resources that were required to develop the R1 model (presumably they were substantial as well),&#34; Rasgon wrote.</p><p>That said, he thinks it&#39;s &#34;absolutely true that DeepSeek&#39;s pricing blows away anything from the competition, with the company pricing their models anywhere from 20-40x cheaper than equivalent models from OpenAI.&#34;</p><p>But he doesn&#39;t buy that this is a &#34;doomsday&#34; situation for semiconductor companies: &#34;We are still going to need, and get, a lot of chips.&#34;</p><p>Cantor Fitzgerald&#39;s C.J. Muse also saw a silver lining. &#34;Innovation is driving down cost of adoption and making AI ubiquitous,&#34; he wrote. &#34;We see this progress as positive in the need for more and more compute over time (not less).&#34;</p><p>Raymond James&#39; Pajjuri made a similar point. &#34;A more logical implication is that DeepSeek will drive even more urgency among U.S. hyperscalers to leverage their key advantage (access to GPUs) to distance themselves from cheaper alternatives,&#34; he wrote.</p><p>Further, while the DeepSeek fears are centered on training costs, he thinks investors should also think about inferencing. Training is the process of showing a model data that will teach it to draw conclusions, and inferencing is the process of putting that model to work based on new data.</p><p>Pajjuri argued that &#34;as training costs decline, more AI use cases could emerge, driving significant growth in inferencing,&#34; including for models like DeepSeek&#39;s R1 and OpenAI&#39;s o1.</p><p>Emanuel, though, wrote that DeepSeek is said to be &#34;nearly 50x more compute efficient&#34; than popular U.S. models on the training side, and perhaps even more so when it comes to inference.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2506374233","content_text":"The Chinese AI service has Wall Street worried that it will be cheaper than expected to develop models. But as chip stocks sink, some analysts see a silver lining.What if companies don't need to spend nearly as much as expected to develop artificial-intelligence models?That's the big question on the minds of investors Monday, given newfound attention on DeepSeek, a Chinese AI app that has climbed to the top of the U.S. App Store. The company reportedly was able to build a model that functions like OpenAI's ChatGPT without spending to the same degree.Wall Street is nervous about what DeepSeek's success means for companies like Nvidia Corp. $(NVDA)$, Broadcom Inc. $(AVGO)$, Marvell Technology Inc. $(MRVL)$ and others that have seen their stocks run up on expectations their businesses would benefit from lofty, AI-fueled capital-expenditure budgets in the years to come.\"If DeepSeek's innovations are adopted broadly, an argument can be made that model training costs could come down significantly even at U.S. hyperscalers, potentially raising questions about the need for 1-million XPU/GPU clusters as projected by some,\" Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.In a post titled \"The Short Case for Nvidia Stock,\" former quant investor and current Web3 entrepreneur Jeffrey Emanuel said DeepSeek's success \"suggests the entire industry has been massively over-provisioning compute resources.\"He added that \"markets eventually find a way around artificial bottlenecks that generate super-normal profits,\" meaning that Nvidia may face \"a much rockier path to maintaining its current growth trajectory and margins than its valuation implies..\"But it's also worth digging into the numbers that have Wall Street so worried. Specifically, there's consternation about a paper that suggested DeepSeek's creator needed to spend $5.6 million to build the model. By contrast, large technology companies in the U.S. are shelling out tens of billions a year on capital expenditures and earmarking much of that for AI infrastructure.The $5 million number, though, is highly misleading, according to Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. \"Did DeepSeek really 'build OpenAI for $5M?' Of course not,\" he wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.That number corresponds to DeepSeek-V3, a \"mixture-of-experts\" model that \"through a number of optimizations and clever techniques can provide similar or better performance vs other large foundational models but requires a small fraction of the compute resources to train,\" according to Rasgon.But the $5 million figure \"does not include all the other costs associated with prior research and experiments on architectures, algorithms, or data,\" he continued. And this type of model is designed \"to significantly reduce cost to train and run, given that only a portion of the parameter set is active at any one time.\"Meanwhile, DeepSeek also has an R1 model that \"seems to be causing most of the angst\" given its comparisons to OpenAI's o1 model, according to Rasgon. \"DeepSeek's R1 paper did not quantify the additional resources that were required to develop the R1 model (presumably they were substantial as well),\" Rasgon wrote.That said, he thinks it's \"absolutely true that DeepSeek's pricing blows away anything from the competition, with the company pricing their models anywhere from 20-40x cheaper than equivalent models from OpenAI.\"But he doesn't buy that this is a \"doomsday\" situation for semiconductor companies: \"We are still going to need, and get, a lot of chips.\"Cantor Fitzgerald's C.J. Muse also saw a silver lining. \"Innovation is driving down cost of adoption and making AI ubiquitous,\" he wrote. \"We see this progress as positive in the need for more and more compute over time (not less).\"Raymond James' Pajjuri made a similar point. \"A more logical implication is that DeepSeek will drive even more urgency among U.S. hyperscalers to leverage their key advantage (access to GPUs) to distance themselves from cheaper alternatives,\" he wrote.Further, while the DeepSeek fears are centered on training costs, he thinks investors should also think about inferencing. Training is the process of showing a model data that will teach it to draw conclusions, and inferencing is the process of putting that model to work based on new data.Pajjuri argued that \"as training costs decline, more AI use cases could emerge, driving significant growth in inferencing,\" including for models like DeepSeek's R1 and OpenAI's o1.Emanuel, though, wrote that DeepSeek is said to be \"nearly 50x more compute efficient\" than popular U.S. models on the training side, and perhaps even more so when it comes to inference.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373169448808728,"gmtCreate":1732151307009,"gmtModify":1732153254311,"author":{"id":"4136643462511252","authorId":"4136643462511252","name":"bnby","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa5afa9be18bb8fa4a29490494e7b8e3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136643462511252","authorIdStr":"4136643462511252"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well, dont forget the factor that the price is determined based on how much the buyer required or satisfy their requirement.&nbsp;","listText":"Well, dont forget the factor that the price is determined based on how much the buyer required or satisfy their requirement.&nbsp;","text":"Well, dont forget the factor that the price is determined based on how much the buyer required or satisfy their requirement.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373169448808728","repostId":"2485567109","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2485567109","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1732149460,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2485567109?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-21 08:37","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485567109","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Seeking AlphaAnd, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.  How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025?With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues  and $0.81 in normalized EPS  for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.   Nvidia Investor Relations In Jensen Huang's words -   The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference. AI is trans","content":"<html><body><ul><li>NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.</li><li>Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply constraints for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, and ongoing gross margin contraction.</li><li>Nvidia's stock remains overvalued at $145 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~3.4%, falling short of my investment hurdle rate.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>BING-JHEN HONG</p></figcaption></figure></p> <div></div> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>In my article “Magnificent 7 Are Alive And Well, But A Rest Is Inevitable,” I foresaw a robust Q3 FY2025 report from NVIDIA Corporation (<span>NASDAQ:NVDA</span>) (<span>NEOE:NVDA:CA</span>):</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Over the past two to three decades, \"Mag-7\" tech conglomerates have continuously<span> delivered disruptive innovation and proven themselves to be growth compounding engines. Today, each of these businesses rake in annual revenues of more than $100B; however, scale isn't holding back growth due to past re-investments. Now, the capital allocation at \"Mag-7\" companies has undoubtedly shifted towards capital return in recent years, aggressive re-investments continue - with CAPEX to Revenue for this group ranging from 10-20% [Apple is an exception] and R&amp;D to Revenue ranging from 5-30%.</span></em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/saupload_059d42c5038af5c3e95298f0e1393aff.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>YCharts</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/saupload_5feb35eba86ed72e76dbc2132999500c.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>YCharts</span></p></figcaption></figure><p><em>As you may know, a huge chunk of this big tech CAPEX spending is going towards GenAI infrastructure - GPUs and long-lived real estate leases, especially in the case of cloud infrastructure providers, i.e., Amazon [AWS], Alphabet [Google Cloud Platform], and Microsoft [Azure]. And based on management commentary, this AI rush is set to continue in 2025:</em></p> <ul><li><em>Hyperscaler capex forecasts to hit $300B in 2025: Morgan Stanley</em></li></ul> <p><em>In addition to unlocking GenAI capabilities for other organizations, these tech giants are using these resources to improve their existing products and services. For example, Alphabet and Microsoft are redefining the Search market with GenAI-powered user experiences, Meta is using Gen-AI across its Family of Apps to boost ad performance and spending billions on Reality Labs to build the next big computing platform, and Tesla is attempting to solve vehicle autonomy using a cluster of 100,000+ GPUs.</em></p> <p><em>Now, given its dominant positioning in the GPU market, Nvidia is receiving almost all of this CAPEX spending as revenue!</em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/51572009-17316338825443873.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span></span>Seeking Alpha</p></figcaption></figure><p><em>And, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.</em></p> </blockquote> <h2>How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025?</h2> <p>With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues (up +94% y/y, vs. est. $33.1B) and $0.81 in normalized EPS (vs. est. $0.75) for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321384876649716.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><strong>In Jensen Huang's words - </strong></p> <blockquote> <p><em>The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference.</em></p> <p><em>AI is transforming every industry, company and country. Enterprises are adopting agentic AI to revolutionize workflows. Industrial robotics investments are surging with breakthroughs in physical AI. And countries have awakened to the importance of developing their national AI and infrastructure</em></p> </blockquote> <p>While Nvidia's quarterly gross margin moderated to 75% in Q3 FY2025, hypergrowth in Data Center revenues [$30.77B, +112% y/y] continued unabated as “Compute” revenues soared to $27.64B [+132% y/y] on the back of strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPUs, totally overpowering a -15% q/q decline in “Networking” revenues.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321391274688108.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Given the outsized weight of Nvidia's Data Center segment within the business, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments seem irrelevant at this point; however, each of these segments saw healthy y/y growth in Q3 FY2025.</p> <p>Now, buoyed by its robust Q3 performance and strong demand for both Hopper and Blackwell, Nvidia's management have provided above-consensus sales guidance of $37.5B for Q4 FY2025 — completing Nvidia's 8th consecutive triple play, i.e., “double beat and raise” quarter.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-1732140664575188.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>That said, Nvidia's Q4 revenue guide did fall short of buy-side whisper number of $39B, and the semiconductor giant expects ongoing gross margin contraction to continue next quarter, with Q4 non-GAAP GM expected to land at 73.5%, down from 75% in Q3.</p> <p>And as I said in one of my previous reports,</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs].</em></p> <p>Source: Nvidia Q1 FY2025: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance.</p> </blockquote> <p>Now, lately, we have seen reports about “overheating” issues tied to Blackwell servers. However, as per Nvidia's latest quarterly report, Blackwell production remains on track, with shipments set to begin in Q4 FY2025 and ramp in FY2026. Furthermore, Huang &amp; Co. called out “supply constraints” for both Hopper and Blackwell, dismissing concerns around near-term demand outlook despite projected revenue growth deceleration.</p> <p>That said, the semiconductor industry is cyclical in nature, and Nvidia's largest customers — cloud hyperscalers [50% of revenues] — are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)] in the industry. Hence, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable.</p> <p>If you have been following my work on Nvidia, you know that I do not hold a long position in this counter. While my opinion could still have an element of a bias, I am flabbergasted by Nvidia's aggressive stock buybacks, which rose to $11B in Q3:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321422410015776.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Yes, Nvidia is experiencing a massive AI windfall right now, with Q3 FCF reaching a record high $16.78B and “cash and short-term investments” soaring to $38.5B. However, if and when the historical cyclicality associated with semis strikes again, stock buybacks at ~20x FY2025E revenue [or ~$3.6T market cap] will look absolutely horrendous. I would rather see Nvidia stockpiling cash through this period (if no better use of capital is possible) ahead of the next down cycle in semis.</p> <h2>Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q3 Earnings?</h2> <p>In light of Nvidia's Q3 FY2025 report, I am updating my valuation model's revenue base to FY2025E revenue of $130B [baking in a $1.5B sales beat on management's guidance for Q4 FY2025]. All other assumptions have been held constant from our last assessment and are self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below.</p> <p><strong>Here's my updated valuation model for Nvidia:</strong></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321436849318805.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model <span>(Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321437733873487.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model <span>(Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious “picks and shovels” play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, with TQI's fair value estimate of $80.45 per share pointing to a downside of -45% from current levels.</p> <p>More importantly, Nvidia's long-term risk/reward [derived from aggressive assumptions for long-term growth, future margins, and exit multiples] as measured by 5-year expected CAGR return has deteriorated down to 3.44%; well under risk-free treasury yields of 4-4.5%. In the past, I have rated Nvidia a “Hold;” however, with NVDA now being less attractive than risk-free treasuries, I now view it as a tactical “Sell.”</p> <p><strong>Key Takeaway:</strong> I rate Nvidia a tactical “Sell” in the $140s.</p> <div></div> <p>Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-21 08:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2485567109","content_text":"NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply constraints for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, and ongoing gross margin contraction.Nvidia's stock remains overvalued at $145 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~3.4%, falling short of my investment hurdle rate.   BING-JHEN HONG  Introduction In my article “Magnificent 7 Are Alive And Well, But A Rest Is Inevitable,” I foresaw a robust Q3 FY2025 report from NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) (NEOE:NVDA:CA):  Over the past two to three decades, \"Mag-7\" tech conglomerates have continuously delivered disruptive innovation and proven themselves to be growth compounding engines. Today, each of these businesses rake in annual revenues of more than $100B; however, scale isn't holding back growth due to past re-investments. Now, the capital allocation at \"Mag-7\" companies has undoubtedly shifted towards capital return in recent years, aggressive re-investments continue - with CAPEX to Revenue for this group ranging from 10-20% [Apple is an exception] and R&D to Revenue ranging from 5-30%.   YCharts  YChartsAs you may know, a huge chunk of this big tech CAPEX spending is going towards GenAI infrastructure - GPUs and long-lived real estate leases, especially in the case of cloud infrastructure providers, i.e., Amazon [AWS], Alphabet [Google Cloud Platform], and Microsoft [Azure]. And based on management commentary, this AI rush is set to continue in 2025: Hyperscaler capex forecasts to hit $300B in 2025: Morgan Stanley In addition to unlocking GenAI capabilities for other organizations, these tech giants are using these resources to improve their existing products and services. For example, Alphabet and Microsoft are redefining the Search market with GenAI-powered user experiences, Meta is using Gen-AI across its Family of Apps to boost ad performance and spending billions on Reality Labs to build the next big computing platform, and Tesla is attempting to solve vehicle autonomy using a cluster of 100,000+ GPUs. Now, given its dominant positioning in the GPU market, Nvidia is receiving almost all of this CAPEX spending as revenue!   Seeking AlphaAnd, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.  How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025? With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues (up +94% y/y, vs. est. $33.1B) and $0.81 in normalized EPS (vs. est. $0.75) for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.   Nvidia Investor Relations In Jensen Huang's words -   The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference. AI is transforming every industry, company and country. Enterprises are adopting agentic AI to revolutionize workflows. Industrial robotics investments are surging with breakthroughs in physical AI. And countries have awakened to the importance of developing their national AI and infrastructure  While Nvidia's quarterly gross margin moderated to 75% in Q3 FY2025, hypergrowth in Data Center revenues [$30.77B, +112% y/y] continued unabated as “Compute” revenues soared to $27.64B [+132% y/y] on the back of strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPUs, totally overpowering a -15% q/q decline in “Networking” revenues.   Nvidia Investor Relations Given the outsized weight of Nvidia's Data Center segment within the business, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments seem irrelevant at this point; however, each of these segments saw healthy y/y growth in Q3 FY2025. Now, buoyed by its robust Q3 performance and strong demand for both Hopper and Blackwell, Nvidia's management have provided above-consensus sales guidance of $37.5B for Q4 FY2025 — completing Nvidia's 8th consecutive triple play, i.e., “double beat and raise” quarter.   Nvidia Investor Relations That said, Nvidia's Q4 revenue guide did fall short of buy-side whisper number of $39B, and the semiconductor giant expects ongoing gross margin contraction to continue next quarter, with Q4 non-GAAP GM expected to land at 73.5%, down from 75% in Q3. And as I said in one of my previous reports,  Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs]. Source: Nvidia Q1 FY2025: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance.  Now, lately, we have seen reports about “overheating” issues tied to Blackwell servers. However, as per Nvidia's latest quarterly report, Blackwell production remains on track, with shipments set to begin in Q4 FY2025 and ramp in FY2026. Furthermore, Huang & Co. called out “supply constraints” for both Hopper and Blackwell, dismissing concerns around near-term demand outlook despite projected revenue growth deceleration. That said, the semiconductor industry is cyclical in nature, and Nvidia's largest customers — cloud hyperscalers [50% of revenues] — are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)] in the industry. Hence, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable. If you have been following my work on Nvidia, you know that I do not hold a long position in this counter. While my opinion could still have an element of a bias, I am flabbergasted by Nvidia's aggressive stock buybacks, which rose to $11B in Q3:   Nvidia Investor Relations Yes, Nvidia is experiencing a massive AI windfall right now, with Q3 FCF reaching a record high $16.78B and “cash and short-term investments” soaring to $38.5B. However, if and when the historical cyclicality associated with semis strikes again, stock buybacks at ~20x FY2025E revenue [or ~$3.6T market cap] will look absolutely horrendous. I would rather see Nvidia stockpiling cash through this period (if no better use of capital is possible) ahead of the next down cycle in semis. Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q3 Earnings? In light of Nvidia's Q3 FY2025 report, I am updating my valuation model's revenue base to FY2025E revenue of $130B [baking in a $1.5B sales beat on management's guidance for Q4 FY2025]. All other assumptions have been held constant from our last assessment and are self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below. Here's my updated valuation model for Nvidia:   TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)  TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org) Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious “picks and shovels” play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, with TQI's fair value estimate of $80.45 per share pointing to a downside of -45% from current levels. More importantly, Nvidia's long-term risk/reward [derived from aggressive assumptions for long-term growth, future margins, and exit multiples] as measured by 5-year expected CAGR return has deteriorated down to 3.44%; well under risk-free treasury yields of 4-4.5%. In the past, I have rated Nvidia a “Hold;” however, with NVDA now being less attractive than risk-free treasuries, I now view it as a tactical “Sell.” Key Takeaway: I rate Nvidia a tactical “Sell” in the $140s.  Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368457949049184,"gmtCreate":1730997103071,"gmtModify":1730997173328,"author":{"id":"4136643462511252","authorId":"4136643462511252","name":"bnby","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa5afa9be18bb8fa4a29490494e7b8e3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136643462511252","authorIdStr":"4136643462511252"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm...that hedge fund is buying blindly of uncertain hope if continue increasing shares after the recent SMCI&nbsp;problem facing.&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm...that hedge fund is buying blindly of uncertain hope if continue increasing shares after the recent SMCI&nbsp;problem facing.&nbsp;","text":"Hmm...that hedge fund is buying blindly of uncertain hope if continue increasing shares after the recent SMCI problem facing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368457949049184","repostId":"2481687975","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362807489691680,"gmtCreate":1729611966655,"gmtModify":1729614028189,"author":{"id":"4136643462511252","authorId":"4136643462511252","name":"bnby","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa5afa9be18bb8fa4a29490494e7b8e3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136643462511252","authorIdStr":"4136643462511252"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Then why need to sell or export to China to begin with, even China has own domestic problem in their own economy? It doesnt make sense why need to rely into within China market at this time as China is not only the market.","listText":"Then why need to sell or export to China to begin with, even China has own domestic problem in their own economy? It doesnt make sense why need to rely into within China market at this time as China is not only the market.","text":"Then why need to sell or export to China to begin with, even China has own domestic problem in their own economy? It doesnt make sense why need to rely into within China market at this time as China is not only the market.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362807489691680","repostId":"2477635833","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477635833","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1729603734,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2477635833?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-22 21:28","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"ASML CEO says US plans to continue applying export pressure to China: report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477635833","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Pixelbizz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images ASML Holding  CEO Christophe Fouquet said the U.S. will continue to pursue restricting certain high-tech exports to China, and pressure allies to do the same, regardless of who wins the presidential election next month, according to a report by Reuters.","content":"<html><body><figure> <picture> <img height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2151265313/image_2151265313.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2151265313/image_2151265313.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2151265313/image_2151265313.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2151265313/image_2151265313.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2151265313/image_2151265313.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2151265313/image_2151265313.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2151265313/image_2151265313.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2151265313/image_2151265313.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2151265313/image_2151265313.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture> <figcaption><p>Pixelbizz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</p></figcaption> </figure><div></div><p>ASML Holding (<span>NASDAQ:ASML</span>) CEO Christophe Fouquet said the U.S. will continue to pursue restricting certain high-tech exports to China, and pressure allies to do the same, regardless of who wins the presidential election next month, according to a report by Reuters.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_trending_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML CEO says US plans to continue applying export pressure to China: report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML CEO says US plans to continue applying export pressure to China: report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-22 21:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4189497-asml-ceo-says-us-plans-to-continue-applying-export-pressure-to-china-report><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Pixelbizz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images ASML Holding (NASDAQ:ASML) CEO Christophe Fouquet said the U.S. will continue to pursue restricting certain high-tech exports to China, and pressure allies ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4189497-asml-ceo-says-us-plans-to-continue-applying-export-pressure-to-china-report\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2151265313/image_2151265313.jpg?io=getty-c-w750","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4189497-asml-ceo-says-us-plans-to-continue-applying-export-pressure-to-china-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2477635833","content_text":"Pixelbizz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images ASML Holding (NASDAQ:ASML) CEO Christophe Fouquet said the U.S. will continue to pursue restricting certain high-tech exports to China, and pressure allies to do the same, regardless of who wins the presidential election next month, according to a report by Reuters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":373169448808728,"gmtCreate":1732151307009,"gmtModify":1732153254311,"author":{"id":"4136643462511252","authorId":"4136643462511252","name":"bnby","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa5afa9be18bb8fa4a29490494e7b8e3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136643462511252","authorIdStr":"4136643462511252"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well, dont forget the factor that the price is determined based on how much the buyer required or satisfy their requirement.&nbsp;","listText":"Well, dont forget the factor that the price is determined based on how much the buyer required or satisfy their requirement.&nbsp;","text":"Well, dont forget the factor that the price is determined based on how much the buyer required or satisfy their requirement.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373169448808728","repostId":"2485567109","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2485567109","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1732149460,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2485567109?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-21 08:37","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485567109","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Seeking AlphaAnd, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.  How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025?With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues  and $0.81 in normalized EPS  for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.   Nvidia Investor Relations In Jensen Huang's words -   The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference. AI is trans","content":"<html><body><ul><li>NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.</li><li>Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply constraints for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, and ongoing gross margin contraction.</li><li>Nvidia's stock remains overvalued at $145 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~3.4%, falling short of my investment hurdle rate.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>BING-JHEN HONG</p></figcaption></figure></p> <div></div> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>In my article “Magnificent 7 Are Alive And Well, But A Rest Is Inevitable,” I foresaw a robust Q3 FY2025 report from NVIDIA Corporation (<span>NASDAQ:NVDA</span>) (<span>NEOE:NVDA:CA</span>):</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Over the past two to three decades, \"Mag-7\" tech conglomerates have continuously<span> delivered disruptive innovation and proven themselves to be growth compounding engines. Today, each of these businesses rake in annual revenues of more than $100B; however, scale isn't holding back growth due to past re-investments. Now, the capital allocation at \"Mag-7\" companies has undoubtedly shifted towards capital return in recent years, aggressive re-investments continue - with CAPEX to Revenue for this group ranging from 10-20% [Apple is an exception] and R&amp;D to Revenue ranging from 5-30%.</span></em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/saupload_059d42c5038af5c3e95298f0e1393aff.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>YCharts</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/saupload_5feb35eba86ed72e76dbc2132999500c.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>YCharts</span></p></figcaption></figure><p><em>As you may know, a huge chunk of this big tech CAPEX spending is going towards GenAI infrastructure - GPUs and long-lived real estate leases, especially in the case of cloud infrastructure providers, i.e., Amazon [AWS], Alphabet [Google Cloud Platform], and Microsoft [Azure]. And based on management commentary, this AI rush is set to continue in 2025:</em></p> <ul><li><em>Hyperscaler capex forecasts to hit $300B in 2025: Morgan Stanley</em></li></ul> <p><em>In addition to unlocking GenAI capabilities for other organizations, these tech giants are using these resources to improve their existing products and services. For example, Alphabet and Microsoft are redefining the Search market with GenAI-powered user experiences, Meta is using Gen-AI across its Family of Apps to boost ad performance and spending billions on Reality Labs to build the next big computing platform, and Tesla is attempting to solve vehicle autonomy using a cluster of 100,000+ GPUs.</em></p> <p><em>Now, given its dominant positioning in the GPU market, Nvidia is receiving almost all of this CAPEX spending as revenue!</em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/51572009-17316338825443873.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span></span>Seeking Alpha</p></figcaption></figure><p><em>And, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.</em></p> </blockquote> <h2>How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025?</h2> <p>With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues (up +94% y/y, vs. est. $33.1B) and $0.81 in normalized EPS (vs. est. $0.75) for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321384876649716.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><strong>In Jensen Huang's words - </strong></p> <blockquote> <p><em>The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference.</em></p> <p><em>AI is transforming every industry, company and country. Enterprises are adopting agentic AI to revolutionize workflows. Industrial robotics investments are surging with breakthroughs in physical AI. And countries have awakened to the importance of developing their national AI and infrastructure</em></p> </blockquote> <p>While Nvidia's quarterly gross margin moderated to 75% in Q3 FY2025, hypergrowth in Data Center revenues [$30.77B, +112% y/y] continued unabated as “Compute” revenues soared to $27.64B [+132% y/y] on the back of strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPUs, totally overpowering a -15% q/q decline in “Networking” revenues.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321391274688108.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Given the outsized weight of Nvidia's Data Center segment within the business, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments seem irrelevant at this point; however, each of these segments saw healthy y/y growth in Q3 FY2025.</p> <p>Now, buoyed by its robust Q3 performance and strong demand for both Hopper and Blackwell, Nvidia's management have provided above-consensus sales guidance of $37.5B for Q4 FY2025 — completing Nvidia's 8th consecutive triple play, i.e., “double beat and raise” quarter.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-1732140664575188.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>That said, Nvidia's Q4 revenue guide did fall short of buy-side whisper number of $39B, and the semiconductor giant expects ongoing gross margin contraction to continue next quarter, with Q4 non-GAAP GM expected to land at 73.5%, down from 75% in Q3.</p> <p>And as I said in one of my previous reports,</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs].</em></p> <p>Source: Nvidia Q1 FY2025: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance.</p> </blockquote> <p>Now, lately, we have seen reports about “overheating” issues tied to Blackwell servers. However, as per Nvidia's latest quarterly report, Blackwell production remains on track, with shipments set to begin in Q4 FY2025 and ramp in FY2026. Furthermore, Huang &amp; Co. called out “supply constraints” for both Hopper and Blackwell, dismissing concerns around near-term demand outlook despite projected revenue growth deceleration.</p> <p>That said, the semiconductor industry is cyclical in nature, and Nvidia's largest customers — cloud hyperscalers [50% of revenues] — are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)] in the industry. Hence, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable.</p> <p>If you have been following my work on Nvidia, you know that I do not hold a long position in this counter. While my opinion could still have an element of a bias, I am flabbergasted by Nvidia's aggressive stock buybacks, which rose to $11B in Q3:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321422410015776.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Yes, Nvidia is experiencing a massive AI windfall right now, with Q3 FCF reaching a record high $16.78B and “cash and short-term investments” soaring to $38.5B. However, if and when the historical cyclicality associated with semis strikes again, stock buybacks at ~20x FY2025E revenue [or ~$3.6T market cap] will look absolutely horrendous. I would rather see Nvidia stockpiling cash through this period (if no better use of capital is possible) ahead of the next down cycle in semis.</p> <h2>Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q3 Earnings?</h2> <p>In light of Nvidia's Q3 FY2025 report, I am updating my valuation model's revenue base to FY2025E revenue of $130B [baking in a $1.5B sales beat on management's guidance for Q4 FY2025]. All other assumptions have been held constant from our last assessment and are self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below.</p> <p><strong>Here's my updated valuation model for Nvidia:</strong></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321436849318805.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model <span>(Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321437733873487.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model <span>(Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious “picks and shovels” play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, with TQI's fair value estimate of $80.45 per share pointing to a downside of -45% from current levels.</p> <p>More importantly, Nvidia's long-term risk/reward [derived from aggressive assumptions for long-term growth, future margins, and exit multiples] as measured by 5-year expected CAGR return has deteriorated down to 3.44%; well under risk-free treasury yields of 4-4.5%. In the past, I have rated Nvidia a “Hold;” however, with NVDA now being less attractive than risk-free treasuries, I now view it as a tactical “Sell.”</p> <p><strong>Key Takeaway:</strong> I rate Nvidia a tactical “Sell” in the $140s.</p> <div></div> <p>Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-21 08:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2485567109","content_text":"NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply constraints for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, and ongoing gross margin contraction.Nvidia's stock remains overvalued at $145 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~3.4%, falling short of my investment hurdle rate.   BING-JHEN HONG  Introduction In my article “Magnificent 7 Are Alive And Well, But A Rest Is Inevitable,” I foresaw a robust Q3 FY2025 report from NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) (NEOE:NVDA:CA):  Over the past two to three decades, \"Mag-7\" tech conglomerates have continuously delivered disruptive innovation and proven themselves to be growth compounding engines. Today, each of these businesses rake in annual revenues of more than $100B; however, scale isn't holding back growth due to past re-investments. Now, the capital allocation at \"Mag-7\" companies has undoubtedly shifted towards capital return in recent years, aggressive re-investments continue - with CAPEX to Revenue for this group ranging from 10-20% [Apple is an exception] and R&D to Revenue ranging from 5-30%.   YCharts  YChartsAs you may know, a huge chunk of this big tech CAPEX spending is going towards GenAI infrastructure - GPUs and long-lived real estate leases, especially in the case of cloud infrastructure providers, i.e., Amazon [AWS], Alphabet [Google Cloud Platform], and Microsoft [Azure]. And based on management commentary, this AI rush is set to continue in 2025: Hyperscaler capex forecasts to hit $300B in 2025: Morgan Stanley In addition to unlocking GenAI capabilities for other organizations, these tech giants are using these resources to improve their existing products and services. For example, Alphabet and Microsoft are redefining the Search market with GenAI-powered user experiences, Meta is using Gen-AI across its Family of Apps to boost ad performance and spending billions on Reality Labs to build the next big computing platform, and Tesla is attempting to solve vehicle autonomy using a cluster of 100,000+ GPUs. Now, given its dominant positioning in the GPU market, Nvidia is receiving almost all of this CAPEX spending as revenue!   Seeking AlphaAnd, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.  How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025? With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues (up +94% y/y, vs. est. $33.1B) and $0.81 in normalized EPS (vs. est. $0.75) for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.   Nvidia Investor Relations In Jensen Huang's words -   The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference. AI is transforming every industry, company and country. Enterprises are adopting agentic AI to revolutionize workflows. Industrial robotics investments are surging with breakthroughs in physical AI. And countries have awakened to the importance of developing their national AI and infrastructure  While Nvidia's quarterly gross margin moderated to 75% in Q3 FY2025, hypergrowth in Data Center revenues [$30.77B, +112% y/y] continued unabated as “Compute” revenues soared to $27.64B [+132% y/y] on the back of strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPUs, totally overpowering a -15% q/q decline in “Networking” revenues.   Nvidia Investor Relations Given the outsized weight of Nvidia's Data Center segment within the business, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments seem irrelevant at this point; however, each of these segments saw healthy y/y growth in Q3 FY2025. Now, buoyed by its robust Q3 performance and strong demand for both Hopper and Blackwell, Nvidia's management have provided above-consensus sales guidance of $37.5B for Q4 FY2025 — completing Nvidia's 8th consecutive triple play, i.e., “double beat and raise” quarter.   Nvidia Investor Relations That said, Nvidia's Q4 revenue guide did fall short of buy-side whisper number of $39B, and the semiconductor giant expects ongoing gross margin contraction to continue next quarter, with Q4 non-GAAP GM expected to land at 73.5%, down from 75% in Q3. And as I said in one of my previous reports,  Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs]. Source: Nvidia Q1 FY2025: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance.  Now, lately, we have seen reports about “overheating” issues tied to Blackwell servers. However, as per Nvidia's latest quarterly report, Blackwell production remains on track, with shipments set to begin in Q4 FY2025 and ramp in FY2026. Furthermore, Huang & Co. called out “supply constraints” for both Hopper and Blackwell, dismissing concerns around near-term demand outlook despite projected revenue growth deceleration. That said, the semiconductor industry is cyclical in nature, and Nvidia's largest customers — cloud hyperscalers [50% of revenues] — are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)] in the industry. Hence, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable. If you have been following my work on Nvidia, you know that I do not hold a long position in this counter. While my opinion could still have an element of a bias, I am flabbergasted by Nvidia's aggressive stock buybacks, which rose to $11B in Q3:   Nvidia Investor Relations Yes, Nvidia is experiencing a massive AI windfall right now, with Q3 FCF reaching a record high $16.78B and “cash and short-term investments” soaring to $38.5B. However, if and when the historical cyclicality associated with semis strikes again, stock buybacks at ~20x FY2025E revenue [or ~$3.6T market cap] will look absolutely horrendous. I would rather see Nvidia stockpiling cash through this period (if no better use of capital is possible) ahead of the next down cycle in semis. Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q3 Earnings? In light of Nvidia's Q3 FY2025 report, I am updating my valuation model's revenue base to FY2025E revenue of $130B [baking in a $1.5B sales beat on management's guidance for Q4 FY2025]. All other assumptions have been held constant from our last assessment and are self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below. Here's my updated valuation model for Nvidia:   TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)  TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org) Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious “picks and shovels” play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, with TQI's fair value estimate of $80.45 per share pointing to a downside of -45% from current levels. More importantly, Nvidia's long-term risk/reward [derived from aggressive assumptions for long-term growth, future margins, and exit multiples] as measured by 5-year expected CAGR return has deteriorated down to 3.44%; well under risk-free treasury yields of 4-4.5%. In the past, I have rated Nvidia a “Hold;” however, with NVDA now being less attractive than risk-free treasuries, I now view it as a tactical “Sell.” Key Takeaway: I rate Nvidia a tactical “Sell” in the $140s.  Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":397193811496992,"gmtCreate":1737996274674,"gmtModify":1737996296153,"author":{"id":"4136643462511252","authorId":"4136643462511252","name":"bnby","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa5afa9be18bb8fa4a29490494e7b8e3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136643462511252","authorIdStr":"4136643462511252"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"no brainer to bet startup vs established? thats deep shit later on.","listText":"no brainer to bet startup vs established? thats deep shit later on.","text":"no brainer to bet startup vs established? thats deep shit later on.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/397193811496992","repostId":"2506374233","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2506374233","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1737988752,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2506374233?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-27 22:39","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Does DeepSeek Spell Doomsday For Nvidia And Other AI Stocks? Here's What To Know","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2506374233","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The Chinese AI service has Wall Street worried that it will be cheaper than expected to develop models. But as chip stocks sink, some analysts see a silver lining.That's the big question on the minds of investors Monday, given newfound attention on DeepSeek, a Chinese AI app that has climbed to the top of the U.S. App Store. The company reportedly was able to build a model that functions like OpenAI's ChatGPT without spending to the same degree.\"If DeepSeek's innovations are adopted broadly, an argument can be made that model training costs could come down significantly even at U.S. hyperscalers, potentially raising questions about the need for 1-million XPU/GPU clusters as projected by some,\" Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.That number corresponds to DeepSeek-V3, a \"mixture-of-experts\" model that \"through a number of optimizations and clever techniques can provide similar or better performance vs other large foundational models but requi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Chinese AI service has Wall Street worried that it will be cheaper than expected to develop models. But as chip stocks sink, some analysts see a silver lining.</p><p>What if companies don&#39;t need to spend nearly as much as expected to develop artificial-intelligence models?</p><p>That&#39;s the big question on the minds of investors Monday, given newfound attention on DeepSeek, a Chinese AI app that has climbed to the top of the U.S. App Store. The company reportedly was able to build a model that functions like OpenAI&#39;s ChatGPT without spending to the same degree.</p><p>Wall Street is nervous about what DeepSeek&#39;s success means for companies like Nvidia Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Broadcom Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>, Marvell Technology Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">$(MRVL)$</a> and others that have seen their stocks run up on expectations their businesses would benefit from lofty, AI-fueled capital-expenditure budgets in the years to come.</p><p>&#34;If DeepSeek&#39;s innovations are adopted broadly, an argument can be made that model training costs could come down significantly even at U.S. hyperscalers, potentially raising questions about the need for 1-million XPU/GPU clusters as projected by some,&#34; Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.</p><p>In a post titled &#34;The Short Case for Nvidia Stock,&#34; former quant investor and current Web3 entrepreneur Jeffrey Emanuel said DeepSeek&#39;s success &#34;suggests the entire industry has been massively over-provisioning compute resources.&#34;</p><p>He added that &#34;markets eventually find a way around artificial bottlenecks that generate super-normal profits,&#34; meaning that Nvidia may face &#34;a much rockier path to maintaining its current growth trajectory and margins than its valuation implies..&#34;</p><p>But it&#39;s also worth digging into the numbers that have Wall Street so worried. Specifically, there&#39;s consternation about a paper that suggested DeepSeek&#39;s creator needed to spend $5.6 million to build the model. By contrast, large technology companies in the U.S. are shelling out tens of billions a year on capital expenditures and earmarking much of that for AI infrastructure.</p><p>The $5 million number, though, is highly misleading, according to Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. &#34;Did DeepSeek really &#39;build OpenAI for $5M?&#39; Of course not,&#34; he wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.</p><p>That number corresponds to DeepSeek-V3, a &#34;mixture-of-experts&#34; model that &#34;through a number of optimizations and clever techniques can provide similar or better performance vs other large foundational models but requires a small fraction of the compute resources to train,&#34; according to Rasgon.</p><p>But the $5 million figure &#34;does not include all the other costs associated with prior research and experiments on architectures, algorithms, or data,&#34; he continued. And this type of model is designed &#34;to significantly reduce cost to train and run, given that only a portion of the parameter set is active at any one time.&#34;</p><p>Meanwhile, DeepSeek also has an R1 model that &#34;seems to be causing most of the angst&#34; given its comparisons to OpenAI&#39;s o1 model, according to Rasgon. &#34;DeepSeek&#39;s R1 paper did not quantify the additional resources that were required to develop the R1 model (presumably they were substantial as well),&#34; Rasgon wrote.</p><p>That said, he thinks it&#39;s &#34;absolutely true that DeepSeek&#39;s pricing blows away anything from the competition, with the company pricing their models anywhere from 20-40x cheaper than equivalent models from OpenAI.&#34;</p><p>But he doesn&#39;t buy that this is a &#34;doomsday&#34; situation for semiconductor companies: &#34;We are still going to need, and get, a lot of chips.&#34;</p><p>Cantor Fitzgerald&#39;s C.J. Muse also saw a silver lining. &#34;Innovation is driving down cost of adoption and making AI ubiquitous,&#34; he wrote. &#34;We see this progress as positive in the need for more and more compute over time (not less).&#34;</p><p>Raymond James&#39; Pajjuri made a similar point. &#34;A more logical implication is that DeepSeek will drive even more urgency among U.S. hyperscalers to leverage their key advantage (access to GPUs) to distance themselves from cheaper alternatives,&#34; he wrote.</p><p>Further, while the DeepSeek fears are centered on training costs, he thinks investors should also think about inferencing. Training is the process of showing a model data that will teach it to draw conclusions, and inferencing is the process of putting that model to work based on new data.</p><p>Pajjuri argued that &#34;as training costs decline, more AI use cases could emerge, driving significant growth in inferencing,&#34; including for models like DeepSeek&#39;s R1 and OpenAI&#39;s o1.</p><p>Emanuel, though, wrote that DeepSeek is said to be &#34;nearly 50x more compute efficient&#34; than popular U.S. models on the training side, and perhaps even more so when it comes to inference.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does DeepSeek Spell Doomsday For Nvidia And Other AI Stocks? Here's What To Know</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes DeepSeek Spell Doomsday For Nvidia And Other AI Stocks? Here's What To Know\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-01-27 22:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The Chinese AI service has Wall Street worried that it will be cheaper than expected to develop models. But as chip stocks sink, some analysts see a silver lining.</p><p>What if companies don&#39;t need to spend nearly as much as expected to develop artificial-intelligence models?</p><p>That&#39;s the big question on the minds of investors Monday, given newfound attention on DeepSeek, a Chinese AI app that has climbed to the top of the U.S. App Store. The company reportedly was able to build a model that functions like OpenAI&#39;s ChatGPT without spending to the same degree.</p><p>Wall Street is nervous about what DeepSeek&#39;s success means for companies like Nvidia Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Broadcom Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>, Marvell Technology Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">$(MRVL)$</a> and others that have seen their stocks run up on expectations their businesses would benefit from lofty, AI-fueled capital-expenditure budgets in the years to come.</p><p>&#34;If DeepSeek&#39;s innovations are adopted broadly, an argument can be made that model training costs could come down significantly even at U.S. hyperscalers, potentially raising questions about the need for 1-million XPU/GPU clusters as projected by some,&#34; Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.</p><p>In a post titled &#34;The Short Case for Nvidia Stock,&#34; former quant investor and current Web3 entrepreneur Jeffrey Emanuel said DeepSeek&#39;s success &#34;suggests the entire industry has been massively over-provisioning compute resources.&#34;</p><p>He added that &#34;markets eventually find a way around artificial bottlenecks that generate super-normal profits,&#34; meaning that Nvidia may face &#34;a much rockier path to maintaining its current growth trajectory and margins than its valuation implies..&#34;</p><p>But it&#39;s also worth digging into the numbers that have Wall Street so worried. Specifically, there&#39;s consternation about a paper that suggested DeepSeek&#39;s creator needed to spend $5.6 million to build the model. By contrast, large technology companies in the U.S. are shelling out tens of billions a year on capital expenditures and earmarking much of that for AI infrastructure.</p><p>The $5 million number, though, is highly misleading, according to Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. &#34;Did DeepSeek really &#39;build OpenAI for $5M?&#39; Of course not,&#34; he wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.</p><p>That number corresponds to DeepSeek-V3, a &#34;mixture-of-experts&#34; model that &#34;through a number of optimizations and clever techniques can provide similar or better performance vs other large foundational models but requires a small fraction of the compute resources to train,&#34; according to Rasgon.</p><p>But the $5 million figure &#34;does not include all the other costs associated with prior research and experiments on architectures, algorithms, or data,&#34; he continued. And this type of model is designed &#34;to significantly reduce cost to train and run, given that only a portion of the parameter set is active at any one time.&#34;</p><p>Meanwhile, DeepSeek also has an R1 model that &#34;seems to be causing most of the angst&#34; given its comparisons to OpenAI&#39;s o1 model, according to Rasgon. &#34;DeepSeek&#39;s R1 paper did not quantify the additional resources that were required to develop the R1 model (presumably they were substantial as well),&#34; Rasgon wrote.</p><p>That said, he thinks it&#39;s &#34;absolutely true that DeepSeek&#39;s pricing blows away anything from the competition, with the company pricing their models anywhere from 20-40x cheaper than equivalent models from OpenAI.&#34;</p><p>But he doesn&#39;t buy that this is a &#34;doomsday&#34; situation for semiconductor companies: &#34;We are still going to need, and get, a lot of chips.&#34;</p><p>Cantor Fitzgerald&#39;s C.J. Muse also saw a silver lining. &#34;Innovation is driving down cost of adoption and making AI ubiquitous,&#34; he wrote. &#34;We see this progress as positive in the need for more and more compute over time (not less).&#34;</p><p>Raymond James&#39; Pajjuri made a similar point. &#34;A more logical implication is that DeepSeek will drive even more urgency among U.S. hyperscalers to leverage their key advantage (access to GPUs) to distance themselves from cheaper alternatives,&#34; he wrote.</p><p>Further, while the DeepSeek fears are centered on training costs, he thinks investors should also think about inferencing. Training is the process of showing a model data that will teach it to draw conclusions, and inferencing is the process of putting that model to work based on new data.</p><p>Pajjuri argued that &#34;as training costs decline, more AI use cases could emerge, driving significant growth in inferencing,&#34; including for models like DeepSeek&#39;s R1 and OpenAI&#39;s o1.</p><p>Emanuel, though, wrote that DeepSeek is said to be &#34;nearly 50x more compute efficient&#34; than popular U.S. models on the training side, and perhaps even more so when it comes to inference.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2506374233","content_text":"The Chinese AI service has Wall Street worried that it will be cheaper than expected to develop models. But as chip stocks sink, some analysts see a silver lining.What if companies don't need to spend nearly as much as expected to develop artificial-intelligence models?That's the big question on the minds of investors Monday, given newfound attention on DeepSeek, a Chinese AI app that has climbed to the top of the U.S. App Store. The company reportedly was able to build a model that functions like OpenAI's ChatGPT without spending to the same degree.Wall Street is nervous about what DeepSeek's success means for companies like Nvidia Corp. $(NVDA)$, Broadcom Inc. $(AVGO)$, Marvell Technology Inc. $(MRVL)$ and others that have seen their stocks run up on expectations their businesses would benefit from lofty, AI-fueled capital-expenditure budgets in the years to come.\"If DeepSeek's innovations are adopted broadly, an argument can be made that model training costs could come down significantly even at U.S. hyperscalers, potentially raising questions about the need for 1-million XPU/GPU clusters as projected by some,\" Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.In a post titled \"The Short Case for Nvidia Stock,\" former quant investor and current Web3 entrepreneur Jeffrey Emanuel said DeepSeek's success \"suggests the entire industry has been massively over-provisioning compute resources.\"He added that \"markets eventually find a way around artificial bottlenecks that generate super-normal profits,\" meaning that Nvidia may face \"a much rockier path to maintaining its current growth trajectory and margins than its valuation implies..\"But it's also worth digging into the numbers that have Wall Street so worried. Specifically, there's consternation about a paper that suggested DeepSeek's creator needed to spend $5.6 million to build the model. By contrast, large technology companies in the U.S. are shelling out tens of billions a year on capital expenditures and earmarking much of that for AI infrastructure.The $5 million number, though, is highly misleading, according to Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. \"Did DeepSeek really 'build OpenAI for $5M?' Of course not,\" he wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.That number corresponds to DeepSeek-V3, a \"mixture-of-experts\" model that \"through a number of optimizations and clever techniques can provide similar or better performance vs other large foundational models but requires a small fraction of the compute resources to train,\" according to Rasgon.But the $5 million figure \"does not include all the other costs associated with prior research and experiments on architectures, algorithms, or data,\" he continued. And this type of model is designed \"to significantly reduce cost to train and run, given that only a portion of the parameter set is active at any one time.\"Meanwhile, DeepSeek also has an R1 model that \"seems to be causing most of the angst\" given its comparisons to OpenAI's o1 model, according to Rasgon. \"DeepSeek's R1 paper did not quantify the additional resources that were required to develop the R1 model (presumably they were substantial as well),\" Rasgon wrote.That said, he thinks it's \"absolutely true that DeepSeek's pricing blows away anything from the competition, with the company pricing their models anywhere from 20-40x cheaper than equivalent models from OpenAI.\"But he doesn't buy that this is a \"doomsday\" situation for semiconductor companies: \"We are still going to need, and get, a lot of chips.\"Cantor Fitzgerald's C.J. Muse also saw a silver lining. \"Innovation is driving down cost of adoption and making AI ubiquitous,\" he wrote. \"We see this progress as positive in the need for more and more compute over time (not less).\"Raymond James' Pajjuri made a similar point. \"A more logical implication is that DeepSeek will drive even more urgency among U.S. hyperscalers to leverage their key advantage (access to GPUs) to distance themselves from cheaper alternatives,\" he wrote.Further, while the DeepSeek fears are centered on training costs, he thinks investors should also think about inferencing. Training is the process of showing a model data that will teach it to draw conclusions, and inferencing is the process of putting that model to work based on new data.Pajjuri argued that \"as training costs decline, more AI use cases could emerge, driving significant growth in inferencing,\" including for models like DeepSeek's R1 and OpenAI's o1.Emanuel, though, wrote that DeepSeek is said to be \"nearly 50x more compute efficient\" than popular U.S. models on the training side, and perhaps even more so when it comes to inference.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368457949049184,"gmtCreate":1730997103071,"gmtModify":1730997173328,"author":{"id":"4136643462511252","authorId":"4136643462511252","name":"bnby","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa5afa9be18bb8fa4a29490494e7b8e3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136643462511252","authorIdStr":"4136643462511252"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm...that hedge fund is buying blindly of uncertain hope if continue increasing shares after the recent SMCI&nbsp;problem facing.&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm...that hedge fund is buying blindly of uncertain hope if continue increasing shares after the recent SMCI&nbsp;problem facing.&nbsp;","text":"Hmm...that hedge fund is buying blindly of uncertain hope if continue increasing shares after the recent SMCI problem facing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368457949049184","repostId":"2481687975","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2481687975","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1730971260,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2481687975?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-07 17:21","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Billionaire Jeff Yass Sold 61% of Susquehanna's Stake in Palantir and Is Piling Into Another Headline-Grabbing Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2481687975","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Susquehanna International's Jeff Yass oversaw the sale of more than 1.5 million shares of Palantir in the first-half of 2024 in favor of a rapidly growing but troubled artificial intelligence (AI) stock.","content":"<html><body><ul>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Required Form 13F filings allow investors to see which stocks Wall Street's top asset managers have been buying and selling.</div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Yass's fund, which hedges its positions with put and call options, has shed a significant portion of its stake in Palantir since the year began.</div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Meanwhile, Susquehanna 10X'd its stake in a company that delivered triple-digit sales growth, but is currently shrouded in uncertainty. </div>\n</li>\n</ul><div><p>Over the last two years, there's not been a hotter trend on Wall Street than the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). In <em>Sizing the Prize</em>, the analysts at PwC predict AI will lift worldwide gross domestic product by $15.7 trillion come 2030.</p><p>The overwhelming potential for artificial intelligence to infiltrate almost every sector and industry of the global economy isn't lost on Wall Street analysts <em>or</em> its top money managers. Thanks to quarterly filed Form 13Fs, investors have the ability to track the buying and selling activity of Wall Street's most-prominent money managers.</p><div><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F796725%2Fmoney-manager-stock-chart-market-level-2-data-invest-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700\" srcset=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/796725/money-manager-stock-chart-market-level-2-data-invest-getty.jpg&amp;w=300&amp;op=resize 300w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/796725/money-manager-stock-chart-market-level-2-data-invest-getty.jpg&amp;w=1000&amp;op=resize 1000w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/796725/money-manager-stock-chart-market-level-2-data-invest-getty.jpg&amp;w=2000&amp;op=resize 2000w\"/><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p></div><p>Although <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>'s Warren Buffett is the most-followed of all billionaire investors, there are plenty of other billionaire asset managers known for making waves on Wall Street. Susquehanna International's Jeff Yass is the perfect example. Yass made a name for himself as a highly successful options trader in the 1980s, which is a strategy employed by Susquehanna today through its market-making operations.</p><p>Admittedly, 13Fs don't tell the complete story about billionaire money managers. For instance, Susquehanna's 13F won't show short positions or options where the firm has a short position. Nevertheless, these filings can still be useful in deciphering which stocks, industries, sectors, and trends are piquing the interest of Wall Street's big-money investors.</p><p>Susquehanna's 13F shows that Yass and his team have been decisive sellers of <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>' <span>(PLTR<span> 8.61%</span>)</span> shares since 2024 began, and have been piling into another AI stock that's consistently been in the headlines of late (albeit for all the wrong reasons).</p><div><div><div></div></div></div><h2>Yass's Susquehanna sends a majority of its Palantir shares packing</h2><p>With the exception of AI-graphics processing unit (GPU) company <strong>Nvidia</strong>, there's probably not a hotter AI stock on the planet than Palantir. Shares of the company have soared 546% over the trailing-two-year period, as of the closing bell on Nov. 5.</p><p>Despite this outperformance, Susquehanna's 13Fs show that 1,539,566 shares of Palantir stock have been sold in the first-half of 2024, representing a 61% reduction. To reiterate, Yass and his team rely on put and call options, as well as potential short options which aren't listed in a 13F, to hedge their common-stock positions.</p><div></div><div><app :collapse_on_load=\"false\" :instrument_id=\"343121\" :show_benchmark_compare=\"false\" amount_change=\"4.40\" average_volume=\"62,047,934\" company_name=\"Palantir Technologies\" current_price=\"55.53\" daily_high=\"55.69\" daily_low=\"51.61\" default_period=\"FiveYear\" dividend_yield=\"N/A\" exchange=\"NYSE\" fifty_two_week_high=\"55.69\" fifty_two_week_low=\"15.66\" gross_margin=\"81.10\" logo=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/art/companylogos/mark/PLTR.png\" market_cap=\"$124B\" pe_ratio=\"281.16\" percent_change=\"8.61\" symbol=\"PLTR\" volume=\"374,136\"></app></div><p>The logical reason for investors to head for the exit with Palantir is its valuation. Even with the company comfortably cruising past Wall Street's third-quarter sales and profit forecast, and lifting its guidance in both arenas for the remainder of the current year, its shares are valued at 39 times full-year revenue and roughly 116 times forecast earnings. These are nosebleed levels for a tech stock whose growth rate has slowed considerably in recent years.</p><p>There's also plenty of incentive to simply ring the register and lock in gains with the broader market hitting one of its priciest valuations on record. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is also known as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE ratio, closed at 36.83 on Nov. 5, which is more than double its 153-year average of 17.17. Historically, an S&amp;P 500 Shiller P/E north of 30 has, <em>eventually</em> (key word!), boded poorly for growth stocks trading at sky-high valuation multiples.</p><div><div><div></div></div></div><p>On the other hand, Wall Street has demonstrated a willingness to pay a premium for businesses that have sustained moats and are irreplaceable. Palantir certainly fits this definition. Its AI-driven Gotham platform plays a critical role in mission planning and execution for federal governments. Meanwhile, its Foundry platform relies on AI and machine learning to help businesses make sense of their data in order to streamline their operations. No company offers what Palantir can at scale.</p><p>For the moment, Palantir's strong ties to the U.S. government have fueled its growth and profitability. The contracts it signs with the U.S. government typically last for four or five years, which leads to highly predictable operating cash flow for an already cash-rich company.</p><p>But as I've pointed out in the past, Gotham's runway is somewhat limited. While the U.S. government has had an insatiable appetite for Palantir's solutions, Palantir won't allow non-allies of the U.S. to use its Gotham platform. This means Foundry will be its key growth driver in the years to come.</p><p>Although Palantir's stock absolutely deserves a premium, I'd suggest there are simply too many question marks about its valuation and future growth prospects to support its nosebleed multiple.</p><div><div><div></div></div></div><div><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F796725%2Fdata-center-engineer-gpu-artificial-intelligence-ai-cloud-server-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700\" srcset=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/796725/data-center-engineer-gpu-artificial-intelligence-ai-cloud-server-getty.jpg&amp;w=300&amp;op=resize 300w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/796725/data-center-engineer-gpu-artificial-intelligence-ai-cloud-server-getty.jpg&amp;w=1000&amp;op=resize 1000w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/796725/data-center-engineer-gpu-artificial-intelligence-ai-cloud-server-getty.jpg&amp;w=2000&amp;op=resize 2000w\"/><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p></div><h2>Jeff Yass's Susquehanna 10X'd its position in a potentially broken AI stock</h2><p>On the other end of the spectrum, Yass's Susquehanna International has been a decisive buyer of what's become a headline-grabbing AI stock. I'm talking about customizable rack server and storage solutions specialist <strong>Super Micro Computer</strong> <span>(SMCI<span> -18.05%</span>)</span>.</p><p>With the understanding that Susquehanna is hedging this position with put and call options, and may have short options that aren't listed via its 13F, Yass and his team increased their stake in Super Micro by 7,702,320 shares through the first six months of 2024, or 927% from where things stood on Dec. 31, 2023. Note, this figure has been adjusted to account for Super Micro Computer's first-ever forward stock split (10-for-1), which occurred after the close of trading on Sept. 30.</p><p>Super Micro bulls have been infatuated with the company's ideal positioning amid the AI revolution. Businesses that want to claim early mover advantages in their respective industries need to invest aggressively in data center infrastructure. In fiscal 2024 (ended June 30, 2024), Super Micro reported $14.94 billion in net sales, which represents a 110% increase from what it delivered in the prior year.</p><p>The other key selling point for Super Micro Computer has been its usage of Nvidia's ultra-popular H100 GPU in its rack servers. Businesses want to deploy the top AI solutions in their data center, and Super Micro has obliged by incorporating GPUs with superior computing potential.</p><div><div><div></div></div></div><div><app :collapse_on_load=\"false\" :instrument_id=\"210117\" :show_benchmark_compare=\"false\" amount_change=\"-5.00\" average_volume=\"78,286,885\" company_name=\"Super Micro Computer\" current_price=\"22.70\" daily_high=\"23.00\" daily_low=\"20.20\" default_period=\"FiveYear\" dividend_yield=\"N/A\" exchange=\"NASDAQ\" fifty_two_week_high=\"122.90\" fifty_two_week_low=\"20.20\" gross_margin=\"14.33\" logo=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/art/companylogos/mark/SMCI.png\" market_cap=\"$13B\" pe_ratio=\"11.41\" percent_change=\"-18.05\" symbol=\"SMCI\" volume=\"97,359\"></app></div><p>Unfortunately, the buzz surrounding this company hasn't been good of late, as the nearly 80% retracement in Super Micro's shares from their year-to-date high would suggest.</p><p>Trouble began in late August, when noted short seller Hindenburg Research released a report accusing Super Micro Computer of \"accounting manipulation.\" While the company denied these claims, it has since delayed the filing of its annual report and, according to <em>The Wall Street Journal</em>, is facing an early stage probe of its accounting practices from the U.S. Justice Department.</p><p>Things spiraled further over the last week. Accounting firm Ernst &amp; Young, which had previously raised concerns about Super Micro's internal controls, resigned. Meanwhile, Super Micro's preliminary first-quarter operating results missed the company's prior guidance, and it offered no timeline for the filing of its annual report, which was due on Aug. 29.</p><p>To be crystal clear, I'm not passing judgment on the company's accounting practices. That's up to regulators and accounting firms to decide. But at the very least, avoiding Super Micro Computer's stock seems the prudent course of action until its accounting practices are given a clean bill of health and the company's annual report is filed.</p><div></div></div></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Billionaire Jeff Yass Sold 61% of Susquehanna's Stake in Palantir and Is Piling Into Another Headline-Grabbing Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBillionaire Jeff Yass Sold 61% of Susquehanna's Stake in Palantir and Is Piling Into Another Headline-Grabbing Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-07 17:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/07/billionaire-jeff-yass-sold-61-stake-in-palantir-ai/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Required Form 13F filings allow investors to see which stocks Wall Street's top asset managers have been buying and selling.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nYass's fund, which hedges its positions with put and call options, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/07/billionaire-jeff-yass-sold-61-stake-in-palantir-ai/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F796725%2Fmoney-manager-stock-chart-market-level-2-data-invest-getty.jpg&op=resize&w=165&h=104","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/07/billionaire-jeff-yass-sold-61-stake-in-palantir-ai/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2481687975","content_text":"Required Form 13F filings allow investors to see which stocks Wall Street's top asset managers have been buying and selling.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nYass's fund, which hedges its positions with put and call options, has shed a significant portion of its stake in Palantir since the year began.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nMeanwhile, Susquehanna 10X'd its stake in a company that delivered triple-digit sales growth, but is currently shrouded in uncertainty. \n\nOver the last two years, there's not been a hotter trend on Wall Street than the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). In Sizing the Prize, the analysts at PwC predict AI will lift worldwide gross domestic product by $15.7 trillion come 2030.The overwhelming potential for artificial intelligence to infiltrate almost every sector and industry of the global economy isn't lost on Wall Street analysts or its top money managers. Thanks to quarterly filed Form 13Fs, investors have the ability to track the buying and selling activity of Wall Street's most-prominent money managers.Image source: Getty Images.Although Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett is the most-followed of all billionaire investors, there are plenty of other billionaire asset managers known for making waves on Wall Street. Susquehanna International's Jeff Yass is the perfect example. Yass made a name for himself as a highly successful options trader in the 1980s, which is a strategy employed by Susquehanna today through its market-making operations.Admittedly, 13Fs don't tell the complete story about billionaire money managers. For instance, Susquehanna's 13F won't show short positions or options where the firm has a short position. Nevertheless, these filings can still be useful in deciphering which stocks, industries, sectors, and trends are piquing the interest of Wall Street's big-money investors.Susquehanna's 13F shows that Yass and his team have been decisive sellers of Palantir Technologies' (PLTR 8.61%) shares since 2024 began, and have been piling into another AI stock that's consistently been in the headlines of late (albeit for all the wrong reasons).Yass's Susquehanna sends a majority of its Palantir shares packingWith the exception of AI-graphics processing unit (GPU) company Nvidia, there's probably not a hotter AI stock on the planet than Palantir. Shares of the company have soared 546% over the trailing-two-year period, as of the closing bell on Nov. 5.Despite this outperformance, Susquehanna's 13Fs show that 1,539,566 shares of Palantir stock have been sold in the first-half of 2024, representing a 61% reduction. To reiterate, Yass and his team rely on put and call options, as well as potential short options which aren't listed in a 13F, to hedge their common-stock positions.The logical reason for investors to head for the exit with Palantir is its valuation. Even with the company comfortably cruising past Wall Street's third-quarter sales and profit forecast, and lifting its guidance in both arenas for the remainder of the current year, its shares are valued at 39 times full-year revenue and roughly 116 times forecast earnings. These are nosebleed levels for a tech stock whose growth rate has slowed considerably in recent years.There's also plenty of incentive to simply ring the register and lock in gains with the broader market hitting one of its priciest valuations on record. The S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is also known as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE ratio, closed at 36.83 on Nov. 5, which is more than double its 153-year average of 17.17. Historically, an S&P 500 Shiller P/E north of 30 has, eventually (key word!), boded poorly for growth stocks trading at sky-high valuation multiples.On the other hand, Wall Street has demonstrated a willingness to pay a premium for businesses that have sustained moats and are irreplaceable. Palantir certainly fits this definition. Its AI-driven Gotham platform plays a critical role in mission planning and execution for federal governments. Meanwhile, its Foundry platform relies on AI and machine learning to help businesses make sense of their data in order to streamline their operations. No company offers what Palantir can at scale.For the moment, Palantir's strong ties to the U.S. government have fueled its growth and profitability. The contracts it signs with the U.S. government typically last for four or five years, which leads to highly predictable operating cash flow for an already cash-rich company.But as I've pointed out in the past, Gotham's runway is somewhat limited. While the U.S. government has had an insatiable appetite for Palantir's solutions, Palantir won't allow non-allies of the U.S. to use its Gotham platform. This means Foundry will be its key growth driver in the years to come.Although Palantir's stock absolutely deserves a premium, I'd suggest there are simply too many question marks about its valuation and future growth prospects to support its nosebleed multiple.Image source: Getty Images.Jeff Yass's Susquehanna 10X'd its position in a potentially broken AI stockOn the other end of the spectrum, Yass's Susquehanna International has been a decisive buyer of what's become a headline-grabbing AI stock. I'm talking about customizable rack server and storage solutions specialist Super Micro Computer (SMCI -18.05%).With the understanding that Susquehanna is hedging this position with put and call options, and may have short options that aren't listed via its 13F, Yass and his team increased their stake in Super Micro by 7,702,320 shares through the first six months of 2024, or 927% from where things stood on Dec. 31, 2023. Note, this figure has been adjusted to account for Super Micro Computer's first-ever forward stock split (10-for-1), which occurred after the close of trading on Sept. 30.Super Micro bulls have been infatuated with the company's ideal positioning amid the AI revolution. Businesses that want to claim early mover advantages in their respective industries need to invest aggressively in data center infrastructure. In fiscal 2024 (ended June 30, 2024), Super Micro reported $14.94 billion in net sales, which represents a 110% increase from what it delivered in the prior year.The other key selling point for Super Micro Computer has been its usage of Nvidia's ultra-popular H100 GPU in its rack servers. Businesses want to deploy the top AI solutions in their data center, and Super Micro has obliged by incorporating GPUs with superior computing potential.Unfortunately, the buzz surrounding this company hasn't been good of late, as the nearly 80% retracement in Super Micro's shares from their year-to-date high would suggest.Trouble began in late August, when noted short seller Hindenburg Research released a report accusing Super Micro Computer of \"accounting manipulation.\" While the company denied these claims, it has since delayed the filing of its annual report and, according to The Wall Street Journal, is facing an early stage probe of its accounting practices from the U.S. Justice Department.Things spiraled further over the last week. Accounting firm Ernst & Young, which had previously raised concerns about Super Micro's internal controls, resigned. Meanwhile, Super Micro's preliminary first-quarter operating results missed the company's prior guidance, and it offered no timeline for the filing of its annual report, which was due on Aug. 29.To be crystal clear, I'm not passing judgment on the company's accounting practices. That's up to regulators and accounting firms to decide. But at the very least, avoiding Super Micro Computer's stock seems the prudent course of action until its accounting practices are given a clean bill of health and the company's annual report is filed.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362807489691680,"gmtCreate":1729611966655,"gmtModify":1729614028189,"author":{"id":"4136643462511252","authorId":"4136643462511252","name":"bnby","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa5afa9be18bb8fa4a29490494e7b8e3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4136643462511252","authorIdStr":"4136643462511252"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Then why need to sell or export to China to begin with, even China has own domestic problem in their own economy? It doesnt make sense why need to rely into within China market at this time as China is not only the market.","listText":"Then why need to sell or export to China to begin with, even China has own domestic problem in their own economy? It doesnt make sense why need to rely into within China market at this time as China is not only the market.","text":"Then why need to sell or export to China to begin with, even China has own domestic problem in their own economy? It doesnt make sense why need to rely into within China market at this time as China is not only the market.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362807489691680","repostId":"2477635833","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}