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05-24

Of course it will dominate, chat gpt is like fashion and it will disappear soon.

Can Google Still Dominate Search In The Age Of AI Chatbots?

2024-07-24

The harsh truth is that no one knows what's gonna happen to the market tomorrow.

Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash

2024-07-12

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.

2023-12-24

VIG has same yield as the S&P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&P 500 etf instead.

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course it will dominate, chat gpt is like fashion and it will disappear soon.","listText":"Of course it will dominate, chat gpt is like fashion and it will disappear soon.","text":"Of course it will dominate, chat gpt is like fashion and it will disappear soon.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/438441144500488","repostId":"1195285545","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195285545","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1748051022,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195285545?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-05-24 09:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Google Still Dominate Search In The Age Of AI Chatbots?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195285545","media":"Financial Times","summary":"At Google’s flagship conference for developers this week, co-founder Sergey Brin made a surprise appearance to emphasise just how important artificial intelligence will be to the company’s future.Brin","content":"<div>\n<p>At Google’s flagship conference for developers this week, co-founder Sergey Brin made a surprise appearance to emphasise just how important artificial intelligence will be to the company’s future. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/dec83193-c787-4301-8098-4277fdd0e5af\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"financial_times_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Google Still Dominate Search In The Age Of AI Chatbots?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Google Still Dominate Search In The Age Of AI Chatbots?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-24 09:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.ft.com/content/dec83193-c787-4301-8098-4277fdd0e5af><strong>Financial Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>At Google’s flagship conference for developers this week, co-founder Sergey Brin made a surprise appearance to emphasise just how important artificial intelligence will be to the company’s future. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/dec83193-c787-4301-8098-4277fdd0e5af\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.ft.com/content/dec83193-c787-4301-8098-4277fdd0e5af","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195285545","content_text":"At Google’s flagship conference for developers this week, co-founder Sergey Brin made a surprise appearance to emphasise just how important artificial intelligence will be to the company’s future. Brin revealed that he was working in Google’s AI lab every day, pushing its engineers to be the first to achieve artificial general intelligence, a system that surpasses the ability of humans.“Honestly, anybody who’s a computer scientist should not be retired, they should be working,” he said. “AI will be vastly more transformative” than the internet or the mobile phone.The more immediate question for the company is the challenge from AI to Google’s domination of the online search business, which has been under threat for the first time in a generation since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022.After two years of false starts when it is widely seen to have squandered some of its advantage, Google this week made its most decisive move yet to try and regain the initiative. Chief executive Sundar Pichai used the conference to launch what he called a “total reimagining of search” to address the challenge from AI chatbots. What the company is calling “AI mode” will be embedded in its search bar, browser and apps, allowing users to receive conversational answers to questions instead of a list of blue links.The project is the centrepiece of Google’s vision for the future of search — one heavily influenced by the runaway success of OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT — that seeks to leverage its Gemini large language models, data centres, user base and network of apps.Yet as it embarks on such a major overhaul, Google and its parent Alphabet must confront what is sometimes called the innovators’ dilemma: how to integrate this new way of finding information online without jeopardising its $198bn in advertising revenues from search.“Monetisation of AI in search is all that matters,” says Ben Reitzes, an analyst at Melius Research. “Search remains the vast majority of Alphabet’s profit . . . they better move fast before OpenAI figures it out first.”Google has signalled that part of the answer is a departure from its free, ad-funded model. It has introduced paid subscriptions for its most advanced AI products including an AI agent called Mariner and video creation tools known as Veo, which are costly to develop and require unprecedented computing power to run. These rise from $20 for a basic package to $250 a month for “ultra” access, more than premium tiers from rivals OpenAI and Anthropic.It also has a plan to insert ads into AI mode — which it argues can be hyper-targeted and thus more lucrative to vendors — and sell new products like augmented reality glasses and ultimately robots.But investors remain wary as Google confronts an array of existential threats. Its shares have underperformed its Big Tech rivals such as Microsoft and Meta and trade at lower multiples of earnings.They are watching closely for signs of decreasing engagement on traditional search and whether new products boost revenue or merely cannibalise its existing business.After losing a trio of antitrust cases, the company may also be forced to sell key assets such as its Chrome browser and ad-exchange marketplace, while sharing consumer data with its AI rivals to level the playing field.The huge annual revenues from search have underwritten an empire that now spans from Waymo’s self-driving cars to the AlphaFold chemistry AI software that won a Nobel Prize last year for Sir Demis Hassabis, the head of DeepMind, one of its AI research arms.Jim Tierney, a shareholder in Alphabet and head of the US growth fund at AllianceBernstein, says that the conference this week showed that the company “has a very competitive offering and will battle for every point”. But he adds: “The question that isn’t resolved is what Google’s market share is going to be in this new world.”Powered by an upgraded version of its Gemini model, AI mode was launched for US users on Tuesday as a polished experience that speedily provides accurate answers.Ben Gomes, the former head of search who is now in charge of learning, says that over time, Google search has allowed users to ask ever more complex questions. “AI mode takes it to a whole new level, because you can ask questions in natural language,” he says. “Your ability . . . has just grown manifold.”It did not suffer from the embarrassing hallucinations that haunted the launch of its predecessor, “AI Overviews”, which shows brief answers to common topics at the top of results pages. That first attempt to infuse generative AI into its core product was widely ridiculed last year when it advised users to eat rocks, put glue on pizza and labelled President Barack Obama a Muslim.The company’s dominant position gives it crucial advantages over new entrants: trust, unrivalled distribution and years of user data from billions of daily queries.Despite the inroads from ChatGPT — which claims more than 600mn monthly users for its app versus 400mn for Gemini — Google still handles 90 per cent of all web searches and its Android operating system runs almost three-quarters of mobile phones globally. Its Chrome browser, Gmail, calendar and maps are ubiquitous and users can now opt to allow Gemini to use their online history to personalise their answers.Google is “finally moving to offence on search . . . taking on a growing and well-funded competitor in OpenAI by integrating a directly competitive product”, says Justin Post, an analyst at Bank of America.AI mode looks particularly threatening to Perplexity, a buzzy AI search start-up co-founded by a former Google intern that has grown to 30mn users in just two years.While minuscule in comparison, it has rattled Google with its trajectory and is in talks with Apple to become a search option for its Safari browser, challenging Google for one of its most valuable partnerships.Speaking to the FT, the upstart company’s chief executive Aravind Srinivas calls AI mode a “carbon copy of Perplexity”. However, he concedes that Google’s reach through search and its established family of apps would be difficult to disrupt.“Google is one of the world’s greatest businesses and a massive monopoly, [but] it is also very vulnerable because the business is decided around one front end: search,” he adds.Alongside the splashy new apps and devices, Google devoted much of the conference this week to explaining how it will protect and grow its $50bn in quarterly search ad revenue.James Manyika, Google’s senior vice-president of research, labs, technology and society, says that it “makes sense” to start charging subscription fees for access to its most capable models “because they are computationally expensive”.However, the $250-a-month ultra tier will be out of reach for many and its new products will have to rely on advertising to become profitable.Pichai argues that rather than eating into existing revenues, AI encourages users to spend more time searching for answers and advice online and thereby enlarges the overall advertising market.“AI mode is giving you context, expanding your interest, your curiosity, you will later research more,” he says. “When you go to those places, you have a much better intent. Those are much higher quality referrals” for advertisers.Ads within AI Overviews will be rolled out for English language users in a number of regions this year, and product placement in ads is being tested in AI mode. When a user asks a non-factual question seeking advice, the chatbot will show a “helpful ad” for a related product with a “sponsored” label.Google has amassed a vast database of personal information on billions of users through email, browsers and smartphones. Large language models — the technology that underpins chatbots — are excellent at inferring preferences and constructing profiles from chat history, making them powerful tools for advertisers.“If ads are in context, they’re going to be much more targeted and helpful to the user,” says Manyika.One example is a new “try it on” feature for clothes shopping, which allows users to upload photos of themselves, which are scanned by AI and then combined with a digital model of the garment to provide an approximation of the fit without visiting a store.“Advertisers love that. Users engage more deeply with the experience,” Manyika says. “The strength of our ad business is benefiting from these innovations.”But a lot hinges on whether the new AI tools work as intended. LLMs are still prone to hallucinations and soon after launch, users discovered Google’s new AI shopping tool had a flaw that added breasts on pictures of men, including vice-president JD Vance.As well as its revamped search bar, Google unveiled a blitz of other innovations that point to the longer-term evolution of the product.Subscribers have access to an integrated AI agent — Project Mariner — that can take control of web browsers in the background to complete mundane tasks like booking trips and tickets, or compile complex research reports from hundreds of sources. Over time, Google says Mariner’s memory will allow it to learn preferences, anticipate needs and make more relevant suggestions.More ambitious is Project Astra, an experimental “multimodal” agent that can respond and act on real-time voice queries and command as it views the physical world through a mobile phone camera or smart glasses. Demonstrations showed it providing advice on mechanical issues, ordering products over the phone and translating conversations.Investors reacted positively to the announcements this week with the stock rising around 3 per cent, trimming its losses this year to 10 per cent. By comparison, Microsoft has risen about 8 per cent and Meta 5 per cent, having shown clear pathways to making money from AI.After a bruising few years, the conference was a chance for Google to flex its technological muscles and remind rivals of its deep pockets.Privately, many at Google have bristled at criticism of its AI credentials, in particular given that it incubated the underlying technology and released it publicly in the 2017 transformers paper.“We’ve done more than any other company in the world to advance the field. Large language models and the whole modern AI era wouldn’t exist without us,” says an executive at DeepMind, who asked to remain anonymous. “People should be very thankful — and they are not — for all we have done.”“Sometimes we don’t talk enough about our successes,” he adds. “I feel like we should. And I think [this week] was a reminder of that.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":1.1,"GOOGL":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":330912997748904,"gmtCreate":1721797134178,"gmtModify":1721799670223,"author":{"id":"4152492245948462","authorId":"4152492245948462","name":"Kbros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152492245948462","idStr":"4152492245948462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The harsh truth is that no one knows what's gonna happen to the market tomorrow.","listText":"The harsh truth is that no one knows what's gonna happen to the market tomorrow.","text":"The harsh truth is that no one knows what's gonna happen to the market tomorrow.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/330912997748904","repostId":"2453076978","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2453076978","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1721744979,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2453076978?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-23 22:29","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2453076978","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low - like now. The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immedia","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-23 22:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","OEX":"标普100","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","SMCI":"超微电脑","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","AVGO":"博通","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2453076978","content_text":"The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia $(NVDA)$, Super Micro Computer $(SMCI)$ and Broadcom $(AVGO)$.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.It's worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&P 500's SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicatorThe U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Financial Research. Entitled \"Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,\" the study began circulating in June in academic circles.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.Emotions and beliefsThe probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500.The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors' emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it's 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it's a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SMCI":1,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":0.78,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"AVGO":1,"IVV":0.6,"NVDA":1,"VOO":0.78,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326522154143816,"gmtCreate":1720741371222,"gmtModify":1720748104512,"author":{"id":"4152492245948462","authorId":"4152492245948462","name":"Kbros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152492245948462","idStr":"4152492245948462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/326522154143816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255415074173176,"gmtCreate":1703370870130,"gmtModify":1703378520639,"author":{"id":"4152492245948462","authorId":"4152492245948462","name":"Kbros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152492245948462","idStr":"4152492245948462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"VIG has same yield as the S&amp;P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&amp;P 500 etf instead.","listText":"VIG has same yield as the S&amp;P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&amp;P 500 etf instead.","text":"VIG has same yield as the S&P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&P 500 etf instead.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255415074173176","repostId":"2393479103","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":438441144500488,"gmtCreate":1748077604992,"gmtModify":1748082453415,"author":{"id":"4152492245948462","authorId":"4152492245948462","name":"Kbros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152492245948462","idStr":"4152492245948462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Of course it will dominate, chat gpt is like fashion and it will disappear soon.","listText":"Of course it will dominate, chat gpt is like fashion and it will disappear soon.","text":"Of course it will dominate, chat gpt is like fashion and it will disappear soon.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/438441144500488","repostId":"1195285545","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195285545","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1748051022,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195285545?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-05-24 09:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Google Still Dominate Search In The Age Of AI Chatbots?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195285545","media":"Financial Times","summary":"At Google’s flagship conference for developers this week, co-founder Sergey Brin made a surprise appearance to emphasise just how important artificial intelligence will be to the company’s future.Brin","content":"<div>\n<p>At Google’s flagship conference for developers this week, co-founder Sergey Brin made a surprise appearance to emphasise just how important artificial intelligence will be to the company’s future. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/dec83193-c787-4301-8098-4277fdd0e5af\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"financial_times_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Google Still Dominate Search In The Age Of AI Chatbots?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Google Still Dominate Search In The Age Of AI Chatbots?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-24 09:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.ft.com/content/dec83193-c787-4301-8098-4277fdd0e5af><strong>Financial Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>At Google’s flagship conference for developers this week, co-founder Sergey Brin made a surprise appearance to emphasise just how important artificial intelligence will be to the company’s future. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/dec83193-c787-4301-8098-4277fdd0e5af\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.ft.com/content/dec83193-c787-4301-8098-4277fdd0e5af","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195285545","content_text":"At Google’s flagship conference for developers this week, co-founder Sergey Brin made a surprise appearance to emphasise just how important artificial intelligence will be to the company’s future. Brin revealed that he was working in Google’s AI lab every day, pushing its engineers to be the first to achieve artificial general intelligence, a system that surpasses the ability of humans.“Honestly, anybody who’s a computer scientist should not be retired, they should be working,” he said. “AI will be vastly more transformative” than the internet or the mobile phone.The more immediate question for the company is the challenge from AI to Google’s domination of the online search business, which has been under threat for the first time in a generation since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022.After two years of false starts when it is widely seen to have squandered some of its advantage, Google this week made its most decisive move yet to try and regain the initiative. Chief executive Sundar Pichai used the conference to launch what he called a “total reimagining of search” to address the challenge from AI chatbots. What the company is calling “AI mode” will be embedded in its search bar, browser and apps, allowing users to receive conversational answers to questions instead of a list of blue links.The project is the centrepiece of Google’s vision for the future of search — one heavily influenced by the runaway success of OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT — that seeks to leverage its Gemini large language models, data centres, user base and network of apps.Yet as it embarks on such a major overhaul, Google and its parent Alphabet must confront what is sometimes called the innovators’ dilemma: how to integrate this new way of finding information online without jeopardising its $198bn in advertising revenues from search.“Monetisation of AI in search is all that matters,” says Ben Reitzes, an analyst at Melius Research. “Search remains the vast majority of Alphabet’s profit . . . they better move fast before OpenAI figures it out first.”Google has signalled that part of the answer is a departure from its free, ad-funded model. It has introduced paid subscriptions for its most advanced AI products including an AI agent called Mariner and video creation tools known as Veo, which are costly to develop and require unprecedented computing power to run. These rise from $20 for a basic package to $250 a month for “ultra” access, more than premium tiers from rivals OpenAI and Anthropic.It also has a plan to insert ads into AI mode — which it argues can be hyper-targeted and thus more lucrative to vendors — and sell new products like augmented reality glasses and ultimately robots.But investors remain wary as Google confronts an array of existential threats. Its shares have underperformed its Big Tech rivals such as Microsoft and Meta and trade at lower multiples of earnings.They are watching closely for signs of decreasing engagement on traditional search and whether new products boost revenue or merely cannibalise its existing business.After losing a trio of antitrust cases, the company may also be forced to sell key assets such as its Chrome browser and ad-exchange marketplace, while sharing consumer data with its AI rivals to level the playing field.The huge annual revenues from search have underwritten an empire that now spans from Waymo’s self-driving cars to the AlphaFold chemistry AI software that won a Nobel Prize last year for Sir Demis Hassabis, the head of DeepMind, one of its AI research arms.Jim Tierney, a shareholder in Alphabet and head of the US growth fund at AllianceBernstein, says that the conference this week showed that the company “has a very competitive offering and will battle for every point”. But he adds: “The question that isn’t resolved is what Google’s market share is going to be in this new world.”Powered by an upgraded version of its Gemini model, AI mode was launched for US users on Tuesday as a polished experience that speedily provides accurate answers.Ben Gomes, the former head of search who is now in charge of learning, says that over time, Google search has allowed users to ask ever more complex questions. “AI mode takes it to a whole new level, because you can ask questions in natural language,” he says. “Your ability . . . has just grown manifold.”It did not suffer from the embarrassing hallucinations that haunted the launch of its predecessor, “AI Overviews”, which shows brief answers to common topics at the top of results pages. That first attempt to infuse generative AI into its core product was widely ridiculed last year when it advised users to eat rocks, put glue on pizza and labelled President Barack Obama a Muslim.The company’s dominant position gives it crucial advantages over new entrants: trust, unrivalled distribution and years of user data from billions of daily queries.Despite the inroads from ChatGPT — which claims more than 600mn monthly users for its app versus 400mn for Gemini — Google still handles 90 per cent of all web searches and its Android operating system runs almost three-quarters of mobile phones globally. Its Chrome browser, Gmail, calendar and maps are ubiquitous and users can now opt to allow Gemini to use their online history to personalise their answers.Google is “finally moving to offence on search . . . taking on a growing and well-funded competitor in OpenAI by integrating a directly competitive product”, says Justin Post, an analyst at Bank of America.AI mode looks particularly threatening to Perplexity, a buzzy AI search start-up co-founded by a former Google intern that has grown to 30mn users in just two years.While minuscule in comparison, it has rattled Google with its trajectory and is in talks with Apple to become a search option for its Safari browser, challenging Google for one of its most valuable partnerships.Speaking to the FT, the upstart company’s chief executive Aravind Srinivas calls AI mode a “carbon copy of Perplexity”. However, he concedes that Google’s reach through search and its established family of apps would be difficult to disrupt.“Google is one of the world’s greatest businesses and a massive monopoly, [but] it is also very vulnerable because the business is decided around one front end: search,” he adds.Alongside the splashy new apps and devices, Google devoted much of the conference this week to explaining how it will protect and grow its $50bn in quarterly search ad revenue.James Manyika, Google’s senior vice-president of research, labs, technology and society, says that it “makes sense” to start charging subscription fees for access to its most capable models “because they are computationally expensive”.However, the $250-a-month ultra tier will be out of reach for many and its new products will have to rely on advertising to become profitable.Pichai argues that rather than eating into existing revenues, AI encourages users to spend more time searching for answers and advice online and thereby enlarges the overall advertising market.“AI mode is giving you context, expanding your interest, your curiosity, you will later research more,” he says. “When you go to those places, you have a much better intent. Those are much higher quality referrals” for advertisers.Ads within AI Overviews will be rolled out for English language users in a number of regions this year, and product placement in ads is being tested in AI mode. When a user asks a non-factual question seeking advice, the chatbot will show a “helpful ad” for a related product with a “sponsored” label.Google has amassed a vast database of personal information on billions of users through email, browsers and smartphones. Large language models — the technology that underpins chatbots — are excellent at inferring preferences and constructing profiles from chat history, making them powerful tools for advertisers.“If ads are in context, they’re going to be much more targeted and helpful to the user,” says Manyika.One example is a new “try it on” feature for clothes shopping, which allows users to upload photos of themselves, which are scanned by AI and then combined with a digital model of the garment to provide an approximation of the fit without visiting a store.“Advertisers love that. Users engage more deeply with the experience,” Manyika says. “The strength of our ad business is benefiting from these innovations.”But a lot hinges on whether the new AI tools work as intended. LLMs are still prone to hallucinations and soon after launch, users discovered Google’s new AI shopping tool had a flaw that added breasts on pictures of men, including vice-president JD Vance.As well as its revamped search bar, Google unveiled a blitz of other innovations that point to the longer-term evolution of the product.Subscribers have access to an integrated AI agent — Project Mariner — that can take control of web browsers in the background to complete mundane tasks like booking trips and tickets, or compile complex research reports from hundreds of sources. Over time, Google says Mariner’s memory will allow it to learn preferences, anticipate needs and make more relevant suggestions.More ambitious is Project Astra, an experimental “multimodal” agent that can respond and act on real-time voice queries and command as it views the physical world through a mobile phone camera or smart glasses. Demonstrations showed it providing advice on mechanical issues, ordering products over the phone and translating conversations.Investors reacted positively to the announcements this week with the stock rising around 3 per cent, trimming its losses this year to 10 per cent. By comparison, Microsoft has risen about 8 per cent and Meta 5 per cent, having shown clear pathways to making money from AI.After a bruising few years, the conference was a chance for Google to flex its technological muscles and remind rivals of its deep pockets.Privately, many at Google have bristled at criticism of its AI credentials, in particular given that it incubated the underlying technology and released it publicly in the 2017 transformers paper.“We’ve done more than any other company in the world to advance the field. Large language models and the whole modern AI era wouldn’t exist without us,” says an executive at DeepMind, who asked to remain anonymous. “People should be very thankful — and they are not — for all we have done.”“Sometimes we don’t talk enough about our successes,” he adds. “I feel like we should. And I think [this week] was a reminder of that.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":1.1,"GOOGL":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":330912997748904,"gmtCreate":1721797134178,"gmtModify":1721799670223,"author":{"id":"4152492245948462","authorId":"4152492245948462","name":"Kbros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152492245948462","idStr":"4152492245948462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The harsh truth is that no one knows what's gonna happen to the market tomorrow.","listText":"The harsh truth is that no one knows what's gonna happen to the market tomorrow.","text":"The harsh truth is that no one knows what's gonna happen to the market tomorrow.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/330912997748904","repostId":"2453076978","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2453076978","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1721744979,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2453076978?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-23 22:29","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2453076978","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low - like now. The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immedia","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-23 22:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","OEX":"标普100","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","SMCI":"超微电脑","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","AVGO":"博通","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2453076978","content_text":"The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia $(NVDA)$, Super Micro Computer $(SMCI)$ and Broadcom $(AVGO)$.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.It's worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&P 500's SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicatorThe U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Financial Research. Entitled \"Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,\" the study began circulating in June in academic circles.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.Emotions and beliefsThe probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500.The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors' emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it's 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it's a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SMCI":1,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":0.78,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"AVGO":1,"IVV":0.6,"NVDA":1,"VOO":0.78,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326522154143816,"gmtCreate":1720741371222,"gmtModify":1720748104512,"author":{"id":"4152492245948462","authorId":"4152492245948462","name":"Kbros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152492245948462","idStr":"4152492245948462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/326522154143816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255415074173176,"gmtCreate":1703370870130,"gmtModify":1703378520639,"author":{"id":"4152492245948462","authorId":"4152492245948462","name":"Kbros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152492245948462","idStr":"4152492245948462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"VIG has same yield as the S&amp;P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&amp;P 500 etf instead.","listText":"VIG has same yield as the S&amp;P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&amp;P 500 etf instead.","text":"VIG has same yield as the S&P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&P 500 etf instead.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255415074173176","repostId":"2393479103","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}