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Evelyn Lim Bock

Evelyn Lim Bock

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Evelyn Lim Bock

03-23

Crowded positioning and the beaten down USD means correlation has been very negative..all these while

War and Inflation Are Supposed to Be Gold’s Friends. Not This Time

Evelyn Lim Bock

01-28

While Jan-March's sell off was COVID driven and their higer Cyclicality/volatility vs other REIT classes is understood, they probably would have suffered a similar decline should the global rout be due to other 'reasons'

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Not This Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132318314","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Investors would have been better off in microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.This should be the time for gold to shine. The yellow metal has the perfect opportunity to demonstrate its...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors would have been better off in microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.</p><p>This should be the time for gold to shine. The yellow metal has the perfect opportunity to demonstrate its role as a shield for investors against inflation and geopolitics.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Instead, it has crumbled: At one point Thursday it was down 14% from before the Israeli-U.S. war against Iran began. Investors would have been better off in the tiniest microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.</p><p>There are technical excuses for gold’s failure to fulfill its promise, but they don’t really stand up to scrutiny. The problem is one that bedevils investors every time they pile into fashionable trades: other investors.</p><p>Put simply, gold had become wildly popular over the past year, so when the war started it was the obvious thing to sell, either for caution or to pay down debt.</p><p>Start with the excuses. Gold is priced in dollars, and the dollar has risen a lot since the bombing began thanks to the U.S. position as a net energy exporter. That should directly hurt gold and other globally traded assets priced in dollars. Yet gold is also down a lot in British pounds (11%), euros (10%) and yen (11%).</p><p>Thursday provided another test. The dollar fell, which should help gold. But the shiny stuff had its worst day of the war so far, dropping almost 6%. At best, the dollar explains only a tiny part of the fall.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/934d58a58821c93c5693b2220d54717d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"517\"/></p><p>Gold is usually sensitive to real, inflation-adjusted interest rates, too. Treat it as a safe inflation-proof asset, and what you give up by holding gold is the after-inflation yield available on the benchmark safe inflation-proof assets, Treasury inflation-protected securities. Gold should fall in price, therefore, when the yield rises, since that makes gold relatively less attractive.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And the yield has risen. Investors are pricing in more near-term inflation and expecting the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold this year or even raise them. That is a big change from the two or even three cuts expected a month ago, lifting the 10-year TIPS yield.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This does justify a lower gold price, but isn’t a good explanation for its declines at the moment. The price used to move fairly consistently in the opposite direction of TIPS yields, but the link broke down as the gold price soared. For a year gold has tended to rise as yields rose. Day-to-day moves during the war show a link has returned, moving inversely in 11 out of the past 15 days. But, as with the dollar, that can explain only a small part of gold’s fall.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Instead, the best explanation is that gold is a crowded trade. As with stocks, what went up the most in the months preceding the war fell the most as investors pulled back.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Some of this was about traders who had borrowed to juice their positions. When they cut risk they sold stocks they owned and bought back those they had sold short—leading to unusual swings in stocks popular with hedge funds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">It’s impossible to know how much investors borrowed to buy gold. But it had clearly attracted a lot of speculative money over the past year. This was reflected in heavy buying of the main gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares. Last autumn it got so extreme that the gold price and stocks popular with day traders moved in tandem.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As speculators pull in their horns, gold should naturally suffer.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Gold’s big gains started as central banks put reserves into gold instead of dollars after Russia’s foreign assets were frozen following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Big increases in central-bank buying led others to piggyback on the price gains.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56797cd773c0794b184b018bda0e2c61\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"519\"/></p><p>The war in Iran raises questions about how far this can continue. The point of foreign-exchange reserves is to protect a country’s ability to buy imports when it suffers a shock. Iran’s response to being attacked has created what the International Energy Agency, a club of mostly rich-world countries, calls the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This is the time for oil importers to be spending reserves, not accumulating more—and if they aren’t adding reserves, it’s much harder for them to buy gold. Oil-rich countries in the Persian Gulf region that face financial problems because they can’t export oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz might turn from buyers to sellers, too.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Something similar applies to individuals who put big chunks of their savings in gold, something more common in India and China than the West. As the soaring oil price hits their economies, they might choose to cash in some of their gold.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">These issues are temporary. As with all assets, once the crowd has left, the price can return to tracking what counts as fundamentals. In gold’s case, that means inflation, interest rates and geopolitics. But how many of the buyers of the past few years have to sell to get there remains unknown. If those sellers include central banks, there could be a lot farther to fall before gold rediscovers its luster.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>War and Inflation Are Supposed to Be Gold’s Friends. 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Not This Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-23 10:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Investors would have been better off in microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.</p><p>This should be the time for gold to shine. The yellow metal has the perfect opportunity to demonstrate its role as a shield for investors against inflation and geopolitics.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Instead, it has crumbled: At one point Thursday it was down 14% from before the Israeli-U.S. war against Iran began. Investors would have been better off in the tiniest microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.</p><p>There are technical excuses for gold’s failure to fulfill its promise, but they don’t really stand up to scrutiny. The problem is one that bedevils investors every time they pile into fashionable trades: other investors.</p><p>Put simply, gold had become wildly popular over the past year, so when the war started it was the obvious thing to sell, either for caution or to pay down debt.</p><p>Start with the excuses. Gold is priced in dollars, and the dollar has risen a lot since the bombing began thanks to the U.S. position as a net energy exporter. That should directly hurt gold and other globally traded assets priced in dollars. Yet gold is also down a lot in British pounds (11%), euros (10%) and yen (11%).</p><p>Thursday provided another test. The dollar fell, which should help gold. But the shiny stuff had its worst day of the war so far, dropping almost 6%. At best, the dollar explains only a tiny part of the fall.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/934d58a58821c93c5693b2220d54717d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"517\"/></p><p>Gold is usually sensitive to real, inflation-adjusted interest rates, too. Treat it as a safe inflation-proof asset, and what you give up by holding gold is the after-inflation yield available on the benchmark safe inflation-proof assets, Treasury inflation-protected securities. Gold should fall in price, therefore, when the yield rises, since that makes gold relatively less attractive.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And the yield has risen. Investors are pricing in more near-term inflation and expecting the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold this year or even raise them. That is a big change from the two or even three cuts expected a month ago, lifting the 10-year TIPS yield.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This does justify a lower gold price, but isn’t a good explanation for its declines at the moment. The price used to move fairly consistently in the opposite direction of TIPS yields, but the link broke down as the gold price soared. For a year gold has tended to rise as yields rose. Day-to-day moves during the war show a link has returned, moving inversely in 11 out of the past 15 days. But, as with the dollar, that can explain only a small part of gold’s fall.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Instead, the best explanation is that gold is a crowded trade. As with stocks, what went up the most in the months preceding the war fell the most as investors pulled back.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Some of this was about traders who had borrowed to juice their positions. When they cut risk they sold stocks they owned and bought back those they had sold short—leading to unusual swings in stocks popular with hedge funds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">It’s impossible to know how much investors borrowed to buy gold. But it had clearly attracted a lot of speculative money over the past year. This was reflected in heavy buying of the main gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares. Last autumn it got so extreme that the gold price and stocks popular with day traders moved in tandem.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As speculators pull in their horns, gold should naturally suffer.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Gold’s big gains started as central banks put reserves into gold instead of dollars after Russia’s foreign assets were frozen following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Big increases in central-bank buying led others to piggyback on the price gains.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56797cd773c0794b184b018bda0e2c61\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"519\"/></p><p>The war in Iran raises questions about how far this can continue. The point of foreign-exchange reserves is to protect a country’s ability to buy imports when it suffers a shock. Iran’s response to being attacked has created what the International Energy Agency, a club of mostly rich-world countries, calls the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This is the time for oil importers to be spending reserves, not accumulating more—and if they aren’t adding reserves, it’s much harder for them to buy gold. Oil-rich countries in the Persian Gulf region that face financial problems because they can’t export oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz might turn from buyers to sellers, too.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Something similar applies to individuals who put big chunks of their savings in gold, something more common in India and China than the West. As the soaring oil price hits their economies, they might choose to cash in some of their gold.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">These issues are temporary. As with all assets, once the crowd has left, the price can return to tracking what counts as fundamentals. In gold’s case, that means inflation, interest rates and geopolitics. But how many of the buyers of the past few years have to sell to get there remains unknown. If those sellers include central banks, there could be a lot farther to fall before gold rediscovers its luster.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132318314","content_text":"Investors would have been better off in microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.This should be the time for gold to shine. The yellow metal has the perfect opportunity to demonstrate its role as a shield for investors against inflation and geopolitics.Instead, it has crumbled: At one point Thursday it was down 14% from before the Israeli-U.S. war against Iran began. Investors would have been better off in the tiniest microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.There are technical excuses for gold’s failure to fulfill its promise, but they don’t really stand up to scrutiny. The problem is one that bedevils investors every time they pile into fashionable trades: other investors.Put simply, gold had become wildly popular over the past year, so when the war started it was the obvious thing to sell, either for caution or to pay down debt.Start with the excuses. Gold is priced in dollars, and the dollar has risen a lot since the bombing began thanks to the U.S. position as a net energy exporter. That should directly hurt gold and other globally traded assets priced in dollars. Yet gold is also down a lot in British pounds (11%), euros (10%) and yen (11%).Thursday provided another test. The dollar fell, which should help gold. But the shiny stuff had its worst day of the war so far, dropping almost 6%. At best, the dollar explains only a tiny part of the fall.Gold is usually sensitive to real, inflation-adjusted interest rates, too. Treat it as a safe inflation-proof asset, and what you give up by holding gold is the after-inflation yield available on the benchmark safe inflation-proof assets, Treasury inflation-protected securities. Gold should fall in price, therefore, when the yield rises, since that makes gold relatively less attractive.And the yield has risen. Investors are pricing in more near-term inflation and expecting the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold this year or even raise them. That is a big change from the two or even three cuts expected a month ago, lifting the 10-year TIPS yield.This does justify a lower gold price, but isn’t a good explanation for its declines at the moment. The price used to move fairly consistently in the opposite direction of TIPS yields, but the link broke down as the gold price soared. For a year gold has tended to rise as yields rose. Day-to-day moves during the war show a link has returned, moving inversely in 11 out of the past 15 days. But, as with the dollar, that can explain only a small part of gold’s fall.Instead, the best explanation is that gold is a crowded trade. As with stocks, what went up the most in the months preceding the war fell the most as investors pulled back.Some of this was about traders who had borrowed to juice their positions. When they cut risk they sold stocks they owned and bought back those they had sold short—leading to unusual swings in stocks popular with hedge funds.It’s impossible to know how much investors borrowed to buy gold. But it had clearly attracted a lot of speculative money over the past year. This was reflected in heavy buying of the main gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares. Last autumn it got so extreme that the gold price and stocks popular with day traders moved in tandem.As speculators pull in their horns, gold should naturally suffer.Gold’s big gains started as central banks put reserves into gold instead of dollars after Russia’s foreign assets were frozen following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Big increases in central-bank buying led others to piggyback on the price gains.The war in Iran raises questions about how far this can continue. The point of foreign-exchange reserves is to protect a country’s ability to buy imports when it suffers a shock. Iran’s response to being attacked has created what the International Energy Agency, a club of mostly rich-world countries, calls the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”This is the time for oil importers to be spending reserves, not accumulating more—and if they aren’t adding reserves, it’s much harder for them to buy gold. Oil-rich countries in the Persian Gulf region that face financial problems because they can’t export oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz might turn from buyers to sellers, too.Something similar applies to individuals who put big chunks of their savings in gold, something more common in India and China than the West. As the soaring oil price hits their economies, they might choose to cash in some of their gold.These issues are temporary. As with all assets, once the crowd has left, the price can return to tracking what counts as fundamentals. In gold’s case, that means inflation, interest rates and geopolitics. But how many of the buyers of the past few years have to sell to get there remains unknown. If those sellers include central banks, there could be a lot farther to fall before gold rediscovers its luster.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":2,".SPX":2,".DJI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":526484298446424,"gmtCreate":1769571633298,"gmtModify":1769577348715,"author":{"id":"4205158811127982","authorId":"4205158811127982","name":"Evelyn Lim Bock","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28842443c9cdf86ecc15a3b0475bd8cc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205158811127982","authorIdStr":"4205158811127982"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"While Jan-March's sell off was COVID driven and their higer Cyclicality/volatility vs other REIT classes is understood, they probably would have suffered a similar decline should the global rout be due to other 'reasons'&nbsp;","listText":"While Jan-March's sell off was COVID driven and their higer Cyclicality/volatility vs other REIT classes is understood, they probably would have suffered a similar decline should the global rout be due to other 'reasons'&nbsp;","text":"While Jan-March's sell off was COVID driven and their higer Cyclicality/volatility vs other REIT classes is understood, they probably would have suffered a similar decline should the global rout be due to other 'reasons'","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/526484298446424","repostId":"1142771070","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":545695689692432,"gmtCreate":1774237667429,"gmtModify":1774237683022,"author":{"id":"4205158811127982","authorId":"4205158811127982","name":"Evelyn Lim Bock","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28842443c9cdf86ecc15a3b0475bd8cc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4205158811127982","idStr":"4205158811127982"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Crowded positioning and the beaten down USD means correlation has been very negative..all these while&nbsp;","listText":"Crowded positioning and the beaten down USD means correlation has been very negative..all these while&nbsp;","text":"Crowded positioning and the beaten down USD means correlation has been very negative..all these while","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/545695689692432","repostId":"1132318314","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1132318314","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1774231990,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132318314?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-03-23 10:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"War and Inflation Are Supposed to Be Gold’s Friends. Not This Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132318314","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Investors would have been better off in microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.This should be the time for gold to shine. The yellow metal has the perfect opportunity to demonstrate its...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors would have been better off in microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.</p><p>This should be the time for gold to shine. The yellow metal has the perfect opportunity to demonstrate its role as a shield for investors against inflation and geopolitics.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Instead, it has crumbled: At one point Thursday it was down 14% from before the Israeli-U.S. war against Iran began. Investors would have been better off in the tiniest microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.</p><p>There are technical excuses for gold’s failure to fulfill its promise, but they don’t really stand up to scrutiny. The problem is one that bedevils investors every time they pile into fashionable trades: other investors.</p><p>Put simply, gold had become wildly popular over the past year, so when the war started it was the obvious thing to sell, either for caution or to pay down debt.</p><p>Start with the excuses. Gold is priced in dollars, and the dollar has risen a lot since the bombing began thanks to the U.S. position as a net energy exporter. That should directly hurt gold and other globally traded assets priced in dollars. Yet gold is also down a lot in British pounds (11%), euros (10%) and yen (11%).</p><p>Thursday provided another test. The dollar fell, which should help gold. But the shiny stuff had its worst day of the war so far, dropping almost 6%. At best, the dollar explains only a tiny part of the fall.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/934d58a58821c93c5693b2220d54717d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"517\"/></p><p>Gold is usually sensitive to real, inflation-adjusted interest rates, too. Treat it as a safe inflation-proof asset, and what you give up by holding gold is the after-inflation yield available on the benchmark safe inflation-proof assets, Treasury inflation-protected securities. Gold should fall in price, therefore, when the yield rises, since that makes gold relatively less attractive.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And the yield has risen. Investors are pricing in more near-term inflation and expecting the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold this year or even raise them. That is a big change from the two or even three cuts expected a month ago, lifting the 10-year TIPS yield.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This does justify a lower gold price, but isn’t a good explanation for its declines at the moment. The price used to move fairly consistently in the opposite direction of TIPS yields, but the link broke down as the gold price soared. For a year gold has tended to rise as yields rose. Day-to-day moves during the war show a link has returned, moving inversely in 11 out of the past 15 days. But, as with the dollar, that can explain only a small part of gold’s fall.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Instead, the best explanation is that gold is a crowded trade. As with stocks, what went up the most in the months preceding the war fell the most as investors pulled back.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Some of this was about traders who had borrowed to juice their positions. When they cut risk they sold stocks they owned and bought back those they had sold short—leading to unusual swings in stocks popular with hedge funds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">It’s impossible to know how much investors borrowed to buy gold. But it had clearly attracted a lot of speculative money over the past year. This was reflected in heavy buying of the main gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares. Last autumn it got so extreme that the gold price and stocks popular with day traders moved in tandem.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As speculators pull in their horns, gold should naturally suffer.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Gold’s big gains started as central banks put reserves into gold instead of dollars after Russia’s foreign assets were frozen following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Big increases in central-bank buying led others to piggyback on the price gains.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56797cd773c0794b184b018bda0e2c61\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"519\"/></p><p>The war in Iran raises questions about how far this can continue. The point of foreign-exchange reserves is to protect a country’s ability to buy imports when it suffers a shock. Iran’s response to being attacked has created what the International Energy Agency, a club of mostly rich-world countries, calls the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This is the time for oil importers to be spending reserves, not accumulating more—and if they aren’t adding reserves, it’s much harder for them to buy gold. Oil-rich countries in the Persian Gulf region that face financial problems because they can’t export oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz might turn from buyers to sellers, too.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Something similar applies to individuals who put big chunks of their savings in gold, something more common in India and China than the West. As the soaring oil price hits their economies, they might choose to cash in some of their gold.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">These issues are temporary. As with all assets, once the crowd has left, the price can return to tracking what counts as fundamentals. In gold’s case, that means inflation, interest rates and geopolitics. But how many of the buyers of the past few years have to sell to get there remains unknown. If those sellers include central banks, there could be a lot farther to fall before gold rediscovers its luster.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>War and Inflation Are Supposed to Be Gold’s Friends. Not This Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWar and Inflation Are Supposed to Be Gold’s Friends. Not This Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-23 10:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Investors would have been better off in microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.</p><p>This should be the time for gold to shine. The yellow metal has the perfect opportunity to demonstrate its role as a shield for investors against inflation and geopolitics.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Instead, it has crumbled: At one point Thursday it was down 14% from before the Israeli-U.S. war against Iran began. Investors would have been better off in the tiniest microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.</p><p>There are technical excuses for gold’s failure to fulfill its promise, but they don’t really stand up to scrutiny. The problem is one that bedevils investors every time they pile into fashionable trades: other investors.</p><p>Put simply, gold had become wildly popular over the past year, so when the war started it was the obvious thing to sell, either for caution or to pay down debt.</p><p>Start with the excuses. Gold is priced in dollars, and the dollar has risen a lot since the bombing began thanks to the U.S. position as a net energy exporter. That should directly hurt gold and other globally traded assets priced in dollars. Yet gold is also down a lot in British pounds (11%), euros (10%) and yen (11%).</p><p>Thursday provided another test. The dollar fell, which should help gold. But the shiny stuff had its worst day of the war so far, dropping almost 6%. At best, the dollar explains only a tiny part of the fall.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/934d58a58821c93c5693b2220d54717d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"517\"/></p><p>Gold is usually sensitive to real, inflation-adjusted interest rates, too. Treat it as a safe inflation-proof asset, and what you give up by holding gold is the after-inflation yield available on the benchmark safe inflation-proof assets, Treasury inflation-protected securities. Gold should fall in price, therefore, when the yield rises, since that makes gold relatively less attractive.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And the yield has risen. Investors are pricing in more near-term inflation and expecting the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold this year or even raise them. That is a big change from the two or even three cuts expected a month ago, lifting the 10-year TIPS yield.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This does justify a lower gold price, but isn’t a good explanation for its declines at the moment. The price used to move fairly consistently in the opposite direction of TIPS yields, but the link broke down as the gold price soared. For a year gold has tended to rise as yields rose. Day-to-day moves during the war show a link has returned, moving inversely in 11 out of the past 15 days. But, as with the dollar, that can explain only a small part of gold’s fall.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Instead, the best explanation is that gold is a crowded trade. As with stocks, what went up the most in the months preceding the war fell the most as investors pulled back.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Some of this was about traders who had borrowed to juice their positions. When they cut risk they sold stocks they owned and bought back those they had sold short—leading to unusual swings in stocks popular with hedge funds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">It’s impossible to know how much investors borrowed to buy gold. But it had clearly attracted a lot of speculative money over the past year. This was reflected in heavy buying of the main gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares. Last autumn it got so extreme that the gold price and stocks popular with day traders moved in tandem.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As speculators pull in their horns, gold should naturally suffer.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Gold’s big gains started as central banks put reserves into gold instead of dollars after Russia’s foreign assets were frozen following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Big increases in central-bank buying led others to piggyback on the price gains.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56797cd773c0794b184b018bda0e2c61\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"519\"/></p><p>The war in Iran raises questions about how far this can continue. The point of foreign-exchange reserves is to protect a country’s ability to buy imports when it suffers a shock. Iran’s response to being attacked has created what the International Energy Agency, a club of mostly rich-world countries, calls the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This is the time for oil importers to be spending reserves, not accumulating more—and if they aren’t adding reserves, it’s much harder for them to buy gold. Oil-rich countries in the Persian Gulf region that face financial problems because they can’t export oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz might turn from buyers to sellers, too.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Something similar applies to individuals who put big chunks of their savings in gold, something more common in India and China than the West. As the soaring oil price hits their economies, they might choose to cash in some of their gold.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">These issues are temporary. As with all assets, once the crowd has left, the price can return to tracking what counts as fundamentals. In gold’s case, that means inflation, interest rates and geopolitics. But how many of the buyers of the past few years have to sell to get there remains unknown. If those sellers include central banks, there could be a lot farther to fall before gold rediscovers its luster.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132318314","content_text":"Investors would have been better off in microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.This should be the time for gold to shine. The yellow metal has the perfect opportunity to demonstrate its role as a shield for investors against inflation and geopolitics.Instead, it has crumbled: At one point Thursday it was down 14% from before the Israeli-U.S. war against Iran began. Investors would have been better off in the tiniest microcap stocks than in the oldest source of safety.There are technical excuses for gold’s failure to fulfill its promise, but they don’t really stand up to scrutiny. The problem is one that bedevils investors every time they pile into fashionable trades: other investors.Put simply, gold had become wildly popular over the past year, so when the war started it was the obvious thing to sell, either for caution or to pay down debt.Start with the excuses. Gold is priced in dollars, and the dollar has risen a lot since the bombing began thanks to the U.S. position as a net energy exporter. That should directly hurt gold and other globally traded assets priced in dollars. Yet gold is also down a lot in British pounds (11%), euros (10%) and yen (11%).Thursday provided another test. The dollar fell, which should help gold. But the shiny stuff had its worst day of the war so far, dropping almost 6%. At best, the dollar explains only a tiny part of the fall.Gold is usually sensitive to real, inflation-adjusted interest rates, too. Treat it as a safe inflation-proof asset, and what you give up by holding gold is the after-inflation yield available on the benchmark safe inflation-proof assets, Treasury inflation-protected securities. Gold should fall in price, therefore, when the yield rises, since that makes gold relatively less attractive.And the yield has risen. Investors are pricing in more near-term inflation and expecting the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold this year or even raise them. That is a big change from the two or even three cuts expected a month ago, lifting the 10-year TIPS yield.This does justify a lower gold price, but isn’t a good explanation for its declines at the moment. The price used to move fairly consistently in the opposite direction of TIPS yields, but the link broke down as the gold price soared. For a year gold has tended to rise as yields rose. Day-to-day moves during the war show a link has returned, moving inversely in 11 out of the past 15 days. But, as with the dollar, that can explain only a small part of gold’s fall.Instead, the best explanation is that gold is a crowded trade. As with stocks, what went up the most in the months preceding the war fell the most as investors pulled back.Some of this was about traders who had borrowed to juice their positions. When they cut risk they sold stocks they owned and bought back those they had sold short—leading to unusual swings in stocks popular with hedge funds.It’s impossible to know how much investors borrowed to buy gold. But it had clearly attracted a lot of speculative money over the past year. This was reflected in heavy buying of the main gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares. Last autumn it got so extreme that the gold price and stocks popular with day traders moved in tandem.As speculators pull in their horns, gold should naturally suffer.Gold’s big gains started as central banks put reserves into gold instead of dollars after Russia’s foreign assets were frozen following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Big increases in central-bank buying led others to piggyback on the price gains.The war in Iran raises questions about how far this can continue. The point of foreign-exchange reserves is to protect a country’s ability to buy imports when it suffers a shock. Iran’s response to being attacked has created what the International Energy Agency, a club of mostly rich-world countries, calls the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”This is the time for oil importers to be spending reserves, not accumulating more—and if they aren’t adding reserves, it’s much harder for them to buy gold. Oil-rich countries in the Persian Gulf region that face financial problems because they can’t export oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz might turn from buyers to sellers, too.Something similar applies to individuals who put big chunks of their savings in gold, something more common in India and China than the West. As the soaring oil price hits their economies, they might choose to cash in some of their gold.These issues are temporary. As with all assets, once the crowd has left, the price can return to tracking what counts as fundamentals. In gold’s case, that means inflation, interest rates and geopolitics. But how many of the buyers of the past few years have to sell to get there remains unknown. If those sellers include central banks, there could be a lot farther to fall before gold rediscovers its luster.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":2,".SPX":2,".DJI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":526484298446424,"gmtCreate":1769571633298,"gmtModify":1769577348715,"author":{"id":"4205158811127982","authorId":"4205158811127982","name":"Evelyn Lim Bock","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28842443c9cdf86ecc15a3b0475bd8cc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4205158811127982","idStr":"4205158811127982"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"While Jan-March's sell off was COVID driven and their higer Cyclicality/volatility vs other REIT classes is understood, they probably would have suffered a similar decline should the global rout be due to other 'reasons'&nbsp;","listText":"While Jan-March's sell off was COVID driven and their higer Cyclicality/volatility vs other REIT classes is understood, they probably would have suffered a similar decline should the global rout be due to other 'reasons'&nbsp;","text":"While Jan-March's sell off was COVID driven and their higer Cyclicality/volatility vs other REIT classes is understood, they probably would have suffered a similar decline should the global rout be due to other 'reasons'","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/526484298446424","repostId":"1142771070","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142771070","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Go Trading Go","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Trading Random","id":"1081967000","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c47c5e15a11ec5cf40edd30d2c7cf544"},"pubTimestamp":1769567651,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142771070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-01-28 10:34","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"The Complete Guide to Investing in Singapore Hospitality REITs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142771070","media":"Trading Random","summary":"Hospitality REITs provide a direct avenue to capitalize on the global tourism recovery, often delivering superior yields relative to other REIT categories.Their earnings, however, possess a distinct...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hospitality REITs provide a direct avenue to capitalize on the global tourism recovery, often delivering superior yields relative to other REIT categories.</p><p>Their earnings, however, possess a distinct character, exhibiting far greater volatility compared to the steadier office, retail, or industrial property sectors.</p><p>Before exploring Singapore-listed hospitality REITs, it is essential to understand their operational dynamics and the critical performance indicators to monitor.</p><h3 id=\"id_4152654922\">What Are Hospitality REITs and How Are They Different?</h3><p>Hospitality REITs are investment vehicles that own and operate revenue-generating lodging properties, including hotels, resorts, and serviced residences.</p><p>Notable examples in Singapore include <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Q5T.SI\">Far East Hospitality Trust</a></strong> and <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/J85.SI\">CDL Hospitality Trusts</a></strong>, commonly referred to as CDLHT.</p><p>Diverging from REITs that rely on long-term, multi-year leases, hospitality REITs generate income from daily room rates and occupancy levels, which fluctuate based on immediate demand and market pricing.</p><p>Since these assets are repriced every day, hospitality REITs are exceptionally sensitive to economic cycles and shifts in travel sentiment.</p><p>This inherent sensitivity makes their performance significantly more volatile during economic downturns or global crises like pandemics.</p><p>Conversely, this same flexibility allows earnings to skyrocket during periods of peak tourism or economic expansion, as they can swiftly capture escalating demand.</p><h3 id=\"id_3021353487\">Key Drivers of Hospitality REIT Performance</h3><p>Occupancy rate stands as a primary determinant of a hospitality REIT&#39;s success.</p><p>Driven by variables such as international visitor numbers, corporate travel volume, and the broader economic climate, heightened occupancy directly enhances operating leverage.</p><p>The Average Daily Rate (ADR) is another vital gauge of performance.</p><p>In robust travel cycles characterized by high demand, hotels can exert greater pricing power, leading to an increased ADR.</p><p>Prime locations and powerful brand recognition also contribute to commanding a premium ADR.</p><p>Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) merges occupancy and pricing data, serving as the most crucial operational metric because it reflects overall revenue efficiency.</p><p>A higher RevPAR directly leads to increased gross hotel revenue, which in turn boosts Net Property Income (NPI).</p><p>An uplift in NPI typically results in a higher Distributable Income Per Unit (DPU), directly benefiting unitholders.</p><h3 id=\"id_2591894590\">Dividend Profile: Why Hospitality REIT Yields Look Attractive</h3><p>Dividends from hospitality REITs are generally more volatile than those from other REIT subsectors.</p><p>Sharp, cyclical spikes in distributions occur when travel demand is exceptionally strong.</p><p>High occupancy levels and rising room rates propel RevPAR upward during these peak cycles, enabling hospitality REITs to distribute a larger portion of their earnings.</p><p>However, while yields can appear highly attractive in these phases, they are not sustainable and can diminish rapidly when travel demand contracts.</p><p>For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMN.SI\">CapitaLand Ascott Trust</a></strong> witnessed its DPU for 2020 plunge to S$0.0303, a dramatic 60.18% decrease from FY2019&#39;s S$0.0761.</p><p>The high yields often associated with hospitality REITs typically represent cyclical upside potential rather than a guaranteed long-term income stream, with robust payouts in prosperous years counterbalancing weaker distributions during downturns.</p><h3 id=\"id_1150419098\">Why the Balance Sheet Matters More for Hospitality REITs</h3><p>A resilient balance sheet is paramount for a hospitality REIT, given the inherent volatility of hotel cash flows.</p><p>Unlike REITs with long-term leases, hospitality income can decline precipitously during economic slowdowns as occupancy and room rates weaken.</p><p>The gearing level and the profile of debt maturities are equally critical considerations.</p><p>High leverage during a downturn can swiftly place immense pressure on the ability to maintain distributions.</p><p>REITs with well-structured, long-dated debt maturities possess the flexibility needed to endure periods of low travel demand.</p><p>Conversely, REITs with strained balance sheets have limited options during a crisis, often resulting in severe distribution cuts.</p><p>The severe impact of the 2020 pandemic offers a clear illustration, when international border closures brought tourism to a virtual standstill, hitting hospitality REITs particularly hard.</p><p>Within a mere two months, CDLHT&#39;s share price plummeted 58%, from S$1.66 on January 20, 2020, to S$0.70 by March 19, 2020.</p><p>Similarly, CapitaLand Ascott Trust experienced a 47% decline, falling from S$1.36 on January 20, 2020, to S$0.72 two months later.</p><h3 id=\"id_3163260034\">What to Look for in a Strong Hospitality REIT</h3><p>A high-caliber hospitality REIT is characterized by premium assets located in gateway cities within key tourism markets.</p><p>Furthermore, a geographically diversified portfolio provides a hedge against localized economic or travel downturns.</p><p>Beyond the physical assets, the strength of the REIT&#39;s sponsor and a management team with a proven history of successfully navigating travel cycles are equally vital.</p><p>The management must exhibit the discipline to strategically recycle capital and conserve cash reserves when market conditions necessitate it.</p><p>Finally, investors should prioritize governance transparency, where management offers timely and clear rationales for acquisitions and divestments, ensuring alignment with unitholder interests.</p><h3 id=\"id_2368127603\">Key Risks Investors Must Understand</h3><p>Investors must fully acknowledge the sector&#39;s exposure to high and sudden risks.</p><p>Economic recessions, travel slowdowns, pandemics, and geopolitical instability can trigger an immediate and complete halt to travel activity.</p><p>Escalating costs for labor, energy, and general operations can also squeeze profit margins, even during a revenue recovery phase.</p><p>Additionally, REITs with weak balance sheets might be compelled to conduct equity raises during unfavorable economic conditions, potentially causing permanent erosion of unitholder value.</p><h3 id=\"id_4168464868\">Portfolio Strategy: Timing and Volatility</h3><p>Hospitality REITs are best suited as a satellite, non-core allocation within a broader income-focused portfolio.</p><p>Unlike long-lease REITs, their returns are heavily dependent on economic and travel cycles; entering at the peak of a travel boom can significantly limit future upside potential.</p><p>Investors should diligently monitor leading indicators—such as tourist arrival statistics, airline capacity expansions, and ADR trends—to ensure investments are made with an adequate margin of safety before a cyclical downturn occurs.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Complete Guide to Investing in Singapore Hospitality REITs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ 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.h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Complete Guide to Investing in Singapore Hospitality REITs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1081967000\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c47c5e15a11ec5cf40edd30d2c7cf544);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Trading Random </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-28 10:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Hospitality REITs provide a direct avenue to capitalize on the global tourism recovery, often delivering superior yields relative to other REIT categories.</p><p>Their earnings, however, possess a distinct character, exhibiting far greater volatility compared to the steadier office, retail, or industrial property sectors.</p><p>Before exploring Singapore-listed hospitality REITs, it is essential to understand their operational dynamics and the critical performance indicators to monitor.</p><h3 id=\"id_4152654922\">What Are Hospitality REITs and How Are They Different?</h3><p>Hospitality REITs are investment vehicles that own and operate revenue-generating lodging properties, including hotels, resorts, and serviced residences.</p><p>Notable examples in Singapore include <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Q5T.SI\">Far East Hospitality Trust</a></strong> and <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/J85.SI\">CDL Hospitality Trusts</a></strong>, commonly referred to as CDLHT.</p><p>Diverging from REITs that rely on long-term, multi-year leases, hospitality REITs generate income from daily room rates and occupancy levels, which fluctuate based on immediate demand and market pricing.</p><p>Since these assets are repriced every day, hospitality REITs are exceptionally sensitive to economic cycles and shifts in travel sentiment.</p><p>This inherent sensitivity makes their performance significantly more volatile during economic downturns or global crises like pandemics.</p><p>Conversely, this same flexibility allows earnings to skyrocket during periods of peak tourism or economic expansion, as they can swiftly capture escalating demand.</p><h3 id=\"id_3021353487\">Key Drivers of Hospitality REIT Performance</h3><p>Occupancy rate stands as a primary determinant of a hospitality REIT&#39;s success.</p><p>Driven by variables such as international visitor numbers, corporate travel volume, and the broader economic climate, heightened occupancy directly enhances operating leverage.</p><p>The Average Daily Rate (ADR) is another vital gauge of performance.</p><p>In robust travel cycles characterized by high demand, hotels can exert greater pricing power, leading to an increased ADR.</p><p>Prime locations and powerful brand recognition also contribute to commanding a premium ADR.</p><p>Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) merges occupancy and pricing data, serving as the most crucial operational metric because it reflects overall revenue efficiency.</p><p>A higher RevPAR directly leads to increased gross hotel revenue, which in turn boosts Net Property Income (NPI).</p><p>An uplift in NPI typically results in a higher Distributable Income Per Unit (DPU), directly benefiting unitholders.</p><h3 id=\"id_2591894590\">Dividend Profile: Why Hospitality REIT Yields Look Attractive</h3><p>Dividends from hospitality REITs are generally more volatile than those from other REIT subsectors.</p><p>Sharp, cyclical spikes in distributions occur when travel demand is exceptionally strong.</p><p>High occupancy levels and rising room rates propel RevPAR upward during these peak cycles, enabling hospitality REITs to distribute a larger portion of their earnings.</p><p>However, while yields can appear highly attractive in these phases, they are not sustainable and can diminish rapidly when travel demand contracts.</p><p>For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMN.SI\">CapitaLand Ascott Trust</a></strong> witnessed its DPU for 2020 plunge to S$0.0303, a dramatic 60.18% decrease from FY2019&#39;s S$0.0761.</p><p>The high yields often associated with hospitality REITs typically represent cyclical upside potential rather than a guaranteed long-term income stream, with robust payouts in prosperous years counterbalancing weaker distributions during downturns.</p><h3 id=\"id_1150419098\">Why the Balance Sheet Matters More for Hospitality REITs</h3><p>A resilient balance sheet is paramount for a hospitality REIT, given the inherent volatility of hotel cash flows.</p><p>Unlike REITs with long-term leases, hospitality income can decline precipitously during economic slowdowns as occupancy and room rates weaken.</p><p>The gearing level and the profile of debt maturities are equally critical considerations.</p><p>High leverage during a downturn can swiftly place immense pressure on the ability to maintain distributions.</p><p>REITs with well-structured, long-dated debt maturities possess the flexibility needed to endure periods of low travel demand.</p><p>Conversely, REITs with strained balance sheets have limited options during a crisis, often resulting in severe distribution cuts.</p><p>The severe impact of the 2020 pandemic offers a clear illustration, when international border closures brought tourism to a virtual standstill, hitting hospitality REITs particularly hard.</p><p>Within a mere two months, CDLHT&#39;s share price plummeted 58%, from S$1.66 on January 20, 2020, to S$0.70 by March 19, 2020.</p><p>Similarly, CapitaLand Ascott Trust experienced a 47% decline, falling from S$1.36 on January 20, 2020, to S$0.72 two months later.</p><h3 id=\"id_3163260034\">What to Look for in a Strong Hospitality REIT</h3><p>A high-caliber hospitality REIT is characterized by premium assets located in gateway cities within key tourism markets.</p><p>Furthermore, a geographically diversified portfolio provides a hedge against localized economic or travel downturns.</p><p>Beyond the physical assets, the strength of the REIT&#39;s sponsor and a management team with a proven history of successfully navigating travel cycles are equally vital.</p><p>The management must exhibit the discipline to strategically recycle capital and conserve cash reserves when market conditions necessitate it.</p><p>Finally, investors should prioritize governance transparency, where management offers timely and clear rationales for acquisitions and divestments, ensuring alignment with unitholder interests.</p><h3 id=\"id_2368127603\">Key Risks Investors Must Understand</h3><p>Investors must fully acknowledge the sector&#39;s exposure to high and sudden risks.</p><p>Economic recessions, travel slowdowns, pandemics, and geopolitical instability can trigger an immediate and complete halt to travel activity.</p><p>Escalating costs for labor, energy, and general operations can also squeeze profit margins, even during a revenue recovery phase.</p><p>Additionally, REITs with weak balance sheets might be compelled to conduct equity raises during unfavorable economic conditions, potentially causing permanent erosion of unitholder value.</p><h3 id=\"id_4168464868\">Portfolio Strategy: Timing and Volatility</h3><p>Hospitality REITs are best suited as a satellite, non-core allocation within a broader income-focused portfolio.</p><p>Unlike long-lease REITs, their returns are heavily dependent on economic and travel cycles; entering at the peak of a travel boom can significantly limit future upside potential.</p><p>Investors should diligently monitor leading indicators—such as tourist arrival statistics, airline capacity expansions, and ADR trends—to ensure investments are made with an adequate margin of safety before a cyclical downturn occurs.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"J85.SI":"城市酒店信托","Q5T.SI":"远东酒店信托","HMN.SI":"凯德雅诗阁信托"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142771070","content_text":"Hospitality REITs provide a direct avenue to capitalize on the global tourism recovery, often delivering superior yields relative to other REIT categories.Their earnings, however, possess a distinct character, exhibiting far greater volatility compared to the steadier office, retail, or industrial property sectors.Before exploring Singapore-listed hospitality REITs, it is essential to understand their operational dynamics and the critical performance indicators to monitor.What Are Hospitality REITs and How Are They Different?Hospitality REITs are investment vehicles that own and operate revenue-generating lodging properties, including hotels, resorts, and serviced residences.Notable examples in Singapore include Far East Hospitality Trust and CDL Hospitality Trusts, commonly referred to as CDLHT.Diverging from REITs that rely on long-term, multi-year leases, hospitality REITs generate income from daily room rates and occupancy levels, which fluctuate based on immediate demand and market pricing.Since these assets are repriced every day, hospitality REITs are exceptionally sensitive to economic cycles and shifts in travel sentiment.This inherent sensitivity makes their performance significantly more volatile during economic downturns or global crises like pandemics.Conversely, this same flexibility allows earnings to skyrocket during periods of peak tourism or economic expansion, as they can swiftly capture escalating demand.Key Drivers of Hospitality REIT PerformanceOccupancy rate stands as a primary determinant of a hospitality REIT's success.Driven by variables such as international visitor numbers, corporate travel volume, and the broader economic climate, heightened occupancy directly enhances operating leverage.The Average Daily Rate (ADR) is another vital gauge of performance.In robust travel cycles characterized by high demand, hotels can exert greater pricing power, leading to an increased ADR.Prime locations and powerful brand recognition also contribute to commanding a premium ADR.Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) merges occupancy and pricing data, serving as the most crucial operational metric because it reflects overall revenue efficiency.A higher RevPAR directly leads to increased gross hotel revenue, which in turn boosts Net Property Income (NPI).An uplift in NPI typically results in a higher Distributable Income Per Unit (DPU), directly benefiting unitholders.Dividend Profile: Why Hospitality REIT Yields Look AttractiveDividends from hospitality REITs are generally more volatile than those from other REIT subsectors.Sharp, cyclical spikes in distributions occur when travel demand is exceptionally strong.High occupancy levels and rising room rates propel RevPAR upward during these peak cycles, enabling hospitality REITs to distribute a larger portion of their earnings.However, while yields can appear highly attractive in these phases, they are not sustainable and can diminish rapidly when travel demand contracts.For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, CapitaLand Ascott Trust witnessed its DPU for 2020 plunge to S$0.0303, a dramatic 60.18% decrease from FY2019's S$0.0761.The high yields often associated with hospitality REITs typically represent cyclical upside potential rather than a guaranteed long-term income stream, with robust payouts in prosperous years counterbalancing weaker distributions during downturns.Why the Balance Sheet Matters More for Hospitality REITsA resilient balance sheet is paramount for a hospitality REIT, given the inherent volatility of hotel cash flows.Unlike REITs with long-term leases, hospitality income can decline precipitously during economic slowdowns as occupancy and room rates weaken.The gearing level and the profile of debt maturities are equally critical considerations.High leverage during a downturn can swiftly place immense pressure on the ability to maintain distributions.REITs with well-structured, long-dated debt maturities possess the flexibility needed to endure periods of low travel demand.Conversely, REITs with strained balance sheets have limited options during a crisis, often resulting in severe distribution cuts.The severe impact of the 2020 pandemic offers a clear illustration, when international border closures brought tourism to a virtual standstill, hitting hospitality REITs particularly hard.Within a mere two months, CDLHT's share price plummeted 58%, from S$1.66 on January 20, 2020, to S$0.70 by March 19, 2020.Similarly, CapitaLand Ascott Trust experienced a 47% decline, falling from S$1.36 on January 20, 2020, to S$0.72 two months later.What to Look for in a Strong Hospitality REITA high-caliber hospitality REIT is characterized by premium assets located in gateway cities within key tourism markets.Furthermore, a geographically diversified portfolio provides a hedge against localized economic or travel downturns.Beyond the physical assets, the strength of the REIT's sponsor and a management team with a proven history of successfully navigating travel cycles are equally vital.The management must exhibit the discipline to strategically recycle capital and conserve cash reserves when market conditions necessitate it.Finally, investors should prioritize governance transparency, where management offers timely and clear rationales for acquisitions and divestments, ensuring alignment with unitholder interests.Key Risks Investors Must UnderstandInvestors must fully acknowledge the sector's exposure to high and sudden risks.Economic recessions, travel slowdowns, pandemics, and geopolitical instability can trigger an immediate and complete halt to travel activity.Escalating costs for labor, energy, and general operations can also squeeze profit margins, even during a revenue recovery phase.Additionally, REITs with weak balance sheets might be compelled to conduct equity raises during unfavorable economic conditions, potentially causing permanent erosion of unitholder value.Portfolio Strategy: Timing and VolatilityHospitality REITs are best suited as a satellite, non-core allocation within a broader income-focused portfolio.Unlike long-lease REITs, their returns are heavily dependent on economic and travel cycles; entering at the peak of a travel boom can significantly limit future upside potential.Investors should diligently monitor leading indicators—such as tourist arrival statistics, airline capacity expansions, and ADR trends—to ensure investments are made with an adequate margin of safety before a cyclical downturn occurs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HMN.SI":2,"J85.SI":2,"Q5T.SI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}