The recent $1 trillion rebound in US equities, led by the S&P 500's impressive single-day gain, has certainly caught attention. However, as you've pointed out, the underlying confidence in the market remains fragile. The elevated implied volatility, below-average trading volume, and the significant jump in Goldman's short-bias basket suggest that the rally might be driven more by short covering than genuine investor conviction. The term "dead cat bounce" refers to a brief, false rally in a declining market, often driven by short covering or other technical factors rather than fundamental changes in the market's outlook. Given the current circumstances, it's possible that the recent rebound could be a dead cat bounce, especially if the underlying concerns about the US outlook and the im

Gold and Copper Market Trends and Influencing Factors Gold Market Trends Gold prices have experienced significant volatility but maintain a bullish long-term outlook, driven by various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Price Performance & Volatility Gold has recently surged past $5,000 per ounce, reaching an all-time high of approximately $5,626.80 on January 29, 2026. However, it also saw a sharp correction, plummeting 21.4% to $4,423.20 by February 2, 2026, before rebounding. Despite the pullbacks, gold remains at historical highs, with spot gold currently trading around $5,040–$5,380 per troy ounce. The GLD ETF, a proxy for gold, rallied 29.3% in January 2026 but then retraced about 78% of that gain. Influencing Factors Safe-Haven Demand: Heightened geopolitical risks (e.g., U

The recent earnings report from DBS Group has indeed sparked a notable reaction in the market, with shares slipping 1.9% intraday following the announcement of a 10% year-over-year (YoY) decline in Q4 net profit to S2.36billion, which fell short of the consensus estimate of $2.52 billion. This decline can be largely attributed to a sharp compression in the net interest margin (NIM) to 2.34%, down from 2.77% in the previous year. Despite a strong 13.5% growth in fee income, the bank's profitability was significantly impacted by the narrowing margin. The full-year profit also experienced a dip of 3.2%, which might raise concerns about the bank's ability to maintain its profitability in a challenging interest rate environment. However, it's worth noting that the total dividends for the year j

The recent earnings reports from the Mag 7 companies have been a mixed bag, with Google and Amazon delivering strong growth but also sharply higher capital expenditures (CapEx). This has led to a sell-off in some of these stocks, with Amazon plunging roughly 10% and Microsoft falling about 15% over the past two weeks. On the other hand, Apple has been a bright spot, rallying about 10% over the same period. Meta, which had a strong surge last week, has given back some of those gains this week. Tesla, meanwhile, has dropped sharply and slipped back below $400. The key question now is which of these stocks is entering a buy zone. Based on the recent price action, it seems that Amazon and Microsoft may be due for a bounce. Both stocks have been hit hard by the CapEx concerns, but they still ha

The recent software selloff has indeed been brutal, with many investors panicking over the potential disruption caused by AI. However, it's essential to separate the signal from the noise and assess whether this represents a structural shift or a temporary panic. While AI is undoubtedly a game-changer, it's unlikely to replace traditional SaaS entirely. Instead, AI will likely augment and enhance existing software solutions, creating new opportunities for growth and innovation. The four companies - AppLovin (APP), Unity (U), Cloudflare (NET), and Nebius (NBIS) - are well-positioned to thrive in this new landscape. AppLovin (APP) is a leader in mobile gaming and advertising, with a strong focus on AI-powered ad engines. Unity (U) is a pioneer in game development and has been investing heavi

The stage is set for DBS's highly anticipated earnings release on February 9. With the stock trading at $59.66, just shy of the $60 mark, investors are eagerly awaiting the results to determine if this psychological barrier will be breached. Let's delve into the two possible scenarios: Scenario A: Breakout to $60+ A strongearnings report,particularly in the wealth management segment, could be the catalyst for a breakout above $60. If DBS reports impressive growth in this area, it may exceed market expectations, leading to a sustained rally. This would indicate that the bank's strategic efforts are yielding positive results, and investors are confident in its continued growth prospects. Scenario B: Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact Conversely, if the market has already factored in the expec

The recent earnings reports from Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have highlighted a common theme: strong growth, but also sharply higher capital expenditures (CapEx). This has led to a mixed reaction from investors, with some stocks recovering from initial declines, while others have continued to fall. Google's earnings report showed strong growth, but the company's CapEx guidance was higher than expected, leading to an initial 7% drop in the stock price. However, the stock managed to recover and closed only 0.6% lower. Amazon, on the other hand, reported strong growth, but its CapEx guidance was even higher, leading to a 10% decline in the stock price. Microsoft's earnings report last week also showed a major surge in CapEx, and the stock has fallen about 15% over the past two weeks. This s

Amazon's Q4 earnings report has sent mixed signals to the market, with the company's revenue growth and cloud computing segment (AWS) performance being positives, but the significant increase in capital expenditures (CapEx) and collapse in free cash flow raising concerns. The 50% YoY increase in CapEx guidance for 2026, which is nearly 40% above consensus estimates, has spooked investors, leading to a decline in Amazon's stock price. The market is worried that Amazon's aggressive investment in areas like data centers, chips, and satellite technology may put pressure on the company's profitability and cash flow. The disclosure of 10B+ annualized revenue from Trainiumand Graviton chips is a positive, but the added costs, including 1B for LEO satellite expenses, are weighing on the compa

The recent crash in silver prices, with a decline of over 16%, can be attributed to the CME's decision to hike margins for gold and silver contracts. The increase in margins, effective after the February 6 close, has forced deleveraging among traders, leading to a sharp sell-off in silver. The higher margins, particularly the 18% increase for silver, have reduced the attractiveness of holding leveraged positions, resulting in a rapid unwinding of trades. The fact that gold prices fell less, with a decline of up to 3.5%, suggests that the yellow metal is showing relative resilience compared to silver. This could be due to gold's larger market size and more diversified investor base, which can help absorb selling pressure. In the short term, margin-driven selling may continue to push silver

The recent decline in storage stocks, including SanDisk (SNDK), Western Digital, Micron Technology, and Seagate Technology, can be attributed to a crowded-trade unwind, where investors are taking profits after a significant run-up in prices. The sharp decline, with SanDisk falling 12% and others following suit, suggests a valuation reset rather than a fundamentals break. The fact that SanDisk's six-month gains exceeded 1,100% and bullish targets were piling up indicates that expectations had become overly optimistic. This correction can be seen as a healthy shakeout, as it brings valuations back to more reasonable levels. However, it's also possible that this could be the start of a deeper de-rating for AI storage stocks. If investors continue to lose risk appetite and profit-taking accele

The recent Bitcoin price drop to a 16-month low near 60,000,followed by a rebound towards 65,000, has sparked intense debate among investors and analysts. The significant liquidation of long positions, with $1.7 billion in crypto long positions wiped out in 24 hours and approximately 400,000 traders forced out, according to Coinglass, suggests a broader market deleveraging rather than a Bitcoin-specific issue. The question on everyone's mind is whether this capitulation marks a tradable bottom or if the macro-driven risk aversion will continue to push Bitcoin's downtrend further. Several factors support the argument for a potential bottom: Capitulation: The extreme selling pressure and significant liquidation of long positions may indicate that the market has reached a point of maximu

This shift from "pure tech" to defensive, asset-heavy, real-world AI beneficiaries is a critical development signaling a mature phase of the AI investment cycle. It's not just a defensive hedge; it's a strategic pivot. The Thesis: Why This Rotation is Happening Now Valuation Escape: Money is fleeing over-extended software/hardware valuations (where AI optimism is priced to perfection) and seeking tangible assets and cash flows in companies whose AI upside is still being recognized. The "Picks and Shovels 2.0" Narrative: The first wave was buying NVIDIA and AMD (the AI toolmakers). The second wave is buying the companies that build, power, and connect the physical infrastructure for AI. This is a deeper, more industrial layer of the value chain. Defensive Growth: In a "higher-for-longer" ra

1. Is This a Healthy Shakeout or the Start of a Deeper De-Rating? The evidence strongly points to a necessary and healthy valuation shakeout, not a fundamental break in the AI storage thesis. Here's the breakdown: Why This is a Healthy Shakeout: Mathematical Necessity: Stocks like SanDisk (WDC) up 1,100% in six months are mathematically primed for a correction. This is a textbook case of a parabolic move meeting gravity. The market is simply resetting from "extreme greed" to a more sustainable base. Crowded Trade Unwind: This was the most consensus long trade in tech. When macro risk appetite fades (higher rates, software selloff), the most crowded, high-beta names get hit first and hardest. This is liquidity-driven selling, not a reflection of broken fundamentals. Valuation Reset, Not Sto

This is a pivotal moment for AMD. The 17% plunge is not just a number; it's a violent market verdict on its AI narrative. Let's break down whether this is a structural breakdown or a painful, but temporary, dislocation. 1. Is This the End of AMD's AI Optimism? No, but it's the end of the "AI optimism at any price" phase. The market has shifted from valuing AI potential to demanding AI proof. The key issues from the report that triggered the reset: "Less Impressive Without China": This is critical. A significant portion of Q4's beat was driven by one-off, lower-margin sales in China ahead of new export restrictions. Stripping that out reveals underlying demand that was good, but not "beat-and-raise" spectacular. The market hates being misled by non-recurring boosts. Lack of Near-Term Inflec

Excellent question that gets to the heart of the current market's dilemma. The "Magnificent 7" narrative is fracturing, and Amazon is now a critical test case for whether AI-driven growth can justify soaring costs in a suddenly valuation-sensitive market. 1. The Context: A Market in Transition The recent tech selloff signals a regime change: the market is no longer rewarding "growth at any cost." It's demanding profitable growth, clear ROI on AI investments, and resilient core businesses. Amazon's report will be judged through this harsh new lens. 2. Will AWS Strength Outweigh AI Capex Concerns? This is the core tension. The answer hinges on guidance and margins. The Bull Case (AWS Outweighs): If Amazon shows: AWS revenue acceleration (consensus ~+15% y/y) driven by new AI product adoption

This is a profound shift in narrative from a major institutional player. Goldman's upgrade isn't just a price target revision; it's a strategic reassessment of gold's role in a changing global monetary system. Let's dissect the key points. 1. Is Gold Being Repriced for a Post-Dollar World? Yes, but it's more accurate to call it a "multi-polar reserve world" repricing. We are not witnessing the dollar's imminent demise, but rather the accelerating erosion of its unipolar dominance. The evidence for this structural repricing is compelling: Central Bank Demand: This is the new, non-negotiable floor for gold. Buying from EM central banks (China, India, Turkey, Poland) is strategic, price-insensitive, and persistent. It's driven by a desire to diversify away from USD/G7 bond exposure, a trend t

This is a critical moment for the market. The scale and velocity of the selloff demand a nuanced view that separates narrative-driven panic from fundamental repricing. 1. How I View This "Panic Selling": A Necessary Reckoning This is not a broad "market crash," but a violent, concentrated repricing in the most speculative and AI-hyped sector: software. The Trigger: Anthropic's announcement was merely the catalyst, not the cause. It served as a stark reminder that the AI revolution, while real, is deflationary for incumbents. It threatens to automate high-margin services (legal, coding, consulting) and compress software pricing power, directly attacking the "growth at any price" thesis. The Cause: The selloff is the result of a perfect storm: Extreme Valuation: Software stocks traded at fro

Is This a Healthy Deleveraging or the Start of a Deeper Reset? The evidence strongly points to a painful but necessary healthy deleveraging within an ongoing bull market, rather than the start of a 2018/2022-style bear market reset. Here's the breakdown: Arguments for "Healthy Deleveraging": The Nature of the Drop: The ~40% drawdown from ~$73.8k to ~$72k (intraday) is well within historical norms for a Bitcoin bull market. Corrections of 30-40% are common. The velocity of the drop is due to excessive leverage being flushed, not a collapse in underlying conviction. Structural Support from ETFs: Unlike 2018 (post-ICO bubble) or 2022 (Luna/FTX collapse), there is now a massive, structural buyer of last resort: spot Bitcoin ETFs. Even with recent outflows, the net inflow since January is over

1. How I View Silver's Plunge The 14% single-day plunge is dramatic but not entirely surprising within the context of the recent parabolic rally. My view is that this is a necessary and healthy correction driven by a confluence of factors: Technical Overextension: Silver had risen nearly 50% in a matter of weeks, breaking decades-old records. The market became overheated, with extreme bullish sentiment and overbought technical indicators. A sharp correction was the most likely outcome. Catalyst Alignment: The fundamental triggers you mentioned—easing geopolitical fears (reduced safe-haven rush) and resilient U.S. data (lowering odds of imminent, deep Fed rate cuts)—provided the perfect fundamental excuse for profit-taking. Liquidity & Leverage: Such violen

The 2026 IPO lineup is indeed expected to be historic, with several high-profile companies preparing to go public. Let's analyze the contenders: SpaceX: With its acquisition of xAl, SpaceX is poised for a massive IPO, targeting a $1.5 trillion valuation. SpaceX's innovative approach to space technology, combined with its expansion into AI through xAl, makes it a compelling candidate. However, the company's valuation and potential profitability will be closely scrutinized by investors. OpenAI: OpenAI's reported tripling of revenue, driven by the adoption of generative AI, is impressive. A $1 trillion valuation is ambitious, but the company's potential for growth in the AI sector is substantial. OpenAI's success will depend on its ability to maintain its lead in AI innovation and navigate th