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144
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Michael Esther
·
44 minutes ago

$SPY Playbook: Bleed, Then Rip

This is Trump's midterm year. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ crashed from $697 to $629 so far. Its at $712 right now. The average drawdown for any given midterm year is 20%. Trump says he will have to end ceasefire and peace agreement with Iran this weekend. You'll get 1 more chance to buy the dip. Every midterm year since 1974. Its the same pattern. 1974 Ford: −35% → +38% a year later 1978 Carter: −15% → +24% 1982 Reagan: −17% → +58% 1986 Reagan: −10% → +35% 1990 Bush: −20% → +29% 1994 Clinton: −8% → +37% 1998 Clinton: −22% → +40% 2002 Bush: −34% → +34% 2006 Bush: −8% → +24% 2010 Obama: −17% → +30% 2014 Obama: −10% → +17% 2018 Trump: −20% → +37% 2022 Biden: −27% → +25% 2026 Trump: -10% so far... Avg drawdown: −19% Avg 1-yr from the bottom: +33%
$SPY Playbook: Bleed, Then Rip
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440
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Travis Hoium
·
47 minutes ago

Up 96% in 2 Months: The Hims & Hers Comeback

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ has been one of my highest-conviction stocks for most of the past year, only to see its shares go through the market ringer. But the past few weeks, we’ve gone from market capitulation to euphoria as shares become semi-loved again. Sentiment hasn’t fully flipped, but it’s getting there, and I continue to think this is one of the highest potential stocks in the market. The reason shares are up over the past week is peptides. The FDA officially removed 12 peptides from “Category 2”, which meant they couldn’t be compounded, and scheduled a meeting in July with an advisory panel to discuss whether some of these peptides can be compounded again. This could be a huge deal. I called Peptides a 1,000x opportunity for Hi
Up 96% in 2 Months: The Hims & Hers Comeback
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396
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jfsrevg
·
07:39

How Elite Traders Find Edge with Risk Management

While traders are focussed on looking at setups and next trades, elite traders are obsessed with extracting more edges from their system and market. While most traders are taught to focus on risk management, use stop loss, the real shift of a trader comes in finding the edge where potential reward is much higher than the risk you are taking. Within our team, they have been highly debating the pros and cons of these two methods and the market environment/setup in which either of these methods would benefit the most. While everyone thinks and is told the main goal of Risk management is only about reducing losses, It is about creating asymmetric R:R outcomes while staying aligned with opportunity. If you are not familiar with what we are talking about, we are referring to elite traders Jeff T
How Elite Traders Find Edge with Risk Management
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nerdbull1669
·
04-18 11:21

Hold AMD Past $300 Long-Term, Play Volatility Tactically WIth Option

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 's recent performance has been explosive, with the stock closing at $278.39 on April 17, 2026—effectively a 32% gain since the start of April. With the next earnings report scheduled for May 5, 2026, the window for a strategic play is narrow but well-defined. As I am holding AMD for long-term, I might not consider to sell, rather hold AMD, and play option to take advantage of current AMD bullish streak, but question is whether this run can last, so in this article I would like to share my thoughts. Hold or Sell at $300? Whether to hold or exit at $300 depends on your risk tolerance regarding the "Earnings Run-up" vs. "Sell the News" phenomenon. The Case for $300: AMD is currently trading at a high Price-to-Earnings (P/
Hold AMD Past $300 Long-Term, Play Volatility Tactically WIth Option
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Michael Esther
·
04-18 09:38

Market Melt-Up Then Selloff? Top 20 Stocks for the Next Dip

$730 is $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ target right now, but after it will crash 20% says Tom Lee to $580. When ON SALE, I'd add these 20 stocks: 1. $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ – Quantum computing leader with massive asymmetric upside Buy zone: $20–25 = early-stage value accumulation 2. $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ – Cheap energy + AI compute = powerful margin expansion Buy zone: $25–30 = strong support + cost advantage 3. $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ – Space-based telecom disruptor with global scalability potential Buy zone: $65–70 = high conviction accumulation 4. $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ – AI da
Market Melt-Up Then Selloff? Top 20 Stocks for the Next Dip
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3.20K
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McMillan Daily
·
04-17 20:27

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/17/2026

$CVB.AU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan The major indices are on a roll, with S&P 500 ($SPX; SPY), NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ) and now Russell 2000 ($RUT; IWM) all making new all-time highs simultaneously. Back in January and February, $SPX made a new all-time high by a few points on several occasions, but it was never able to put together a strong breakout rally as follow-through. Eventually, that was onerous, and the market fell. But now it appears to be adding to the breakout gains, which is a very positive sign. Technically, there should now be support at 7000 (the old highs). It would be disappointing to see $SPX trade back below 7000 now, but if it did, there should be support at 6800, and then at the bottom of the gap near 6600. There is no
Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/17/2026
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PeterDiCarlo
·
04-18 09:45

Bullish Structure Intact Across ENPH TSLA ULTA COIN Setups

Several high-profile stocks are showing early signs of institutional accumulation, with key “smart money zones” holding and technical structures beginning to shift bullish across names like ENPH, TSLA, ULTA, and COIN. 1. $Enphase Energy(ENPH)$ $ENPH is building a strong base right above the Smart Money Zone. Point of control support is holding. 70% of the time when this setup forms price rallies back to recent highs within 90 to 120 days. That puts the upside target at $54 by August. 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $TSLA has cleared this resistance level on the daily Great sign for the bulls and congrats if you held 🤝🥳 3. $ulta beauty(ULTA)$ $ULTA is pushing out of the S
Bullish Structure Intact Across ENPH TSLA ULTA COIN Setups
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2.13K
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Michael Esther
·
04-18 09:40

SPY Seasonal Cycle Signals Mid-Year Weakness Amid Macro Pressure

This is 99-year seasonality $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ across the 4-year presidential cycle: This is where you are: 1. Typical pattern:Election year → modest uptrend 2. Post-election → volatility/drawdowns 3. Mid-cycle → weakness / chop (you are here) 4. Pre-election → strong rally This chart shows the peak around April then weakness into Septemer. Then massive rally into pre-election year Here's 4 critical things to pay attention to (if the SPY sells off badly): 1. Rates aren’t coming down and that’s a problem The market rallied on the idea of cuts. 2. Inflation is re-accelerating at the worst time We were trending toward 2%… Now back above 3%. This traps the Fed. They can’t cut. 3. Oil + war = earnings compression If oil keeps pushing high
SPY Seasonal Cycle Signals Mid-Year Weakness Amid Macro Pressure
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Michael Esther
·
04-18 09:33

SPY Breaks Out of Pin, Eyes 710 as Gamma Structure Shifts

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is now at 706 and positioning has shifted from pin to expansion. Here’s the clean read. Net GEX is +10.60B. Still positive, still long gamma, but no longer extreme. This allows price to move with direction instead of being stuck. 707–708 is now the dominant zone. You can see heavy positive GEX stacking here. This becomes your new magnet and control area. Below, 700–702 is your key support band. You can clearly see negative GEX sitting under price. If this breaks, moves can accelerate lower toward 697. Above, 710 is the next level building. Strong positioning there means if momentum continues, price can push quickly into that zone. 3 scenarios: Most likely: slight bullish continuation, range between 705–708 with upw
SPY Breaks Out of Pin, Eyes 710 as Gamma Structure Shifts
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839
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SmartReversals
·
04-18 09:31

Unstoppable Train - Will Earnings Fuel the Rally?

Last week the Weekly Compass presented 12 setups 10 reached their targets, 1 neared their target, only 1 moved in the opposite way. or remained constructive, resulting in a 91.6% effectiveness rate. The targets were based on these modeled support and resistance levels, and I was doubtful of some of them reaching their target considering the previous two rally weeks, but once again, these levels frame price action and in the same way that they worked in bearish weeks during march, they worked well during this bullish move. Top Performing Setups Bitcoin / IBIT: This was my high-conviction play regardless of broader market action. IBIT hit the extended target of $43.7 and closed the week at $43.9, delivering a robust +5.7% move. If you trade Bitcoin the move is even better for a +9% this week
Unstoppable Train - Will Earnings Fuel the Rally?
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715
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jfsrevg
·
04-18 09:29

RS Divergence Warning: Why ARGT Lags EWZ and ILF Despite Similar Setup

Educational Thread — RS Bearish Divergence: Why “Cheap” Isn’t an Opportunity $Global X MSCI Argentina ETF(ARGT)$ vs $iShares MSCI Brazil ETF(EWZ)$ & $iShares Latin America 40 ETF(ILF)$ One of the few groups hitting 1-month RS highs ahead of the Mar 31 pivot in $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ and $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ was LatAm equities which can be expressed via directly ETF execution into $ARGT $EWZ $ILF. They’re driven by the same regional macro factors: $DXY weakness and shifting Fed rate expectations. All 3 also broke out of similar bullish descending wedge structures. While
RS Divergence Warning: Why ARGT Lags EWZ and ILF Despite Similar Setup
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1.30K
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JaminBall
·
04-18 07:54

Is the AI Boom Creating Hidden Risks Beneath the Surface?

I’ve been thinking a lot recently about comments $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Satya made a few years back. If we rewind the clock to mid / late 2022, the biggest thing on software companies & investors’ mind was “when will the optimizations end.” The ZIRP period of 2020-2021 created a buying frenzy - no one was thinking about costs (when it came to cloud / cloud software spend), they were only thinking about growth and capturing more market share (oversimplification, but you get the main point I’m making). At the end of the day, the market was providing cheap and abundant capital (for public and private companies), and investors (for both public and private companies) were rewarding growth (ie placing the most emphasis on growth when determining valuatio
Is the AI Boom Creating Hidden Risks Beneath the Surface?
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1.46K
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TRIGGER TRADES
·
04-18 07:47

$NQ Hits All-Time Highs After Bullish FVG Setup

The upside objective today was the all-time highs on $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ . Price formed a bullish M30 FVG support. Textbook bullish SMT → iFVG buy signal FIRED. 175+ points later — NQ at all-time highs. Members BANKED. ✓ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ outlook dropping later. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ and NQ are about to tag their 2026 highs. Those are profit taking levels. The bearish SMT with $YM is still intact at ATH. What does that mean? ES/NQ are sweeping the highs while YM is FAILING to confirm them. That's a pullback signature. Short-term pullback se
$NQ Hits All-Time Highs After Bullish FVG Setup
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Reynor
·
04-17 20:19

CFTC:S&P Net Short Positions Surge Suddenly, Signs of Capital "Rotation" Become Evident

On the week of April 7, the latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) data release from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission immediately ignited market discussions: stock index futures saw intensified multi-force tug-of-war, crude oil longs staged a strong comeback, while precious metals like gold saw funds quietly exiting. This isn't random volatility—it's a clear signal of big money "rotating tracks"! Want to know who's adding positions and who's retreating? Read this article, and you'll easily grasp the market's next rhythm.Commitment of Traders Report Basics: The "Three Keys" to CFTC DataThe CFTC Commitment of Traders report is like the market's "sentiment barometer," released every Friday with Tuesday's futures position data to reveal true capital intentions. No worries—w
CFTC:S&P Net Short Positions Surge Suddenly, Signs of Capital "Rotation" Become Evident
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3.87K
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CutieYolkYolk
·
04-15
$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ Continue DCA on VOO during good and bad times. Market recovered remarkably and so is VOO. Happy to get some accumulations done when it was weaker the past few weeks
VOO
04-15 01:33
USVanguard S&P 500 ETF
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Buy
Open
637.99
0
+2.42%
Holding
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ Continue DCA on VOO during good and bad times. Market recovered remarkably and so is VOO. Happy to get some accumulatio...
2
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3.91K
General
Summertrades
·
04-15
$DELL 20260417 175.0 PUT$ Simple arbitrage trade, option flip bought @0.85 yesterday, sold @2.30 today. Profit around ≈$145
DELL PUT
04-15 21:52
US20260417 175.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Sell
Close
2.30
1Lot(s)
+167.21%
Closed
Dell Technologies Inc.
$DELL 20260417 175.0 PUT$ Simple arbitrage trade, option flip bought @0.85 yesterday, sold @2.30 today. Profit around ≈$145
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2.71K
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CutieYolkYolk
·
04-15
$INTC 20260417 70.0 CALL$ Sold some calls on INTC at $70. Think the rise is overblown with range of good news and buoyant market last 2 weeks but the fundamentals will come back to reality at some point.  Ok to hold short at $70 for a short term trade, if fail will cut loss
INTC CALL
04-15 23:28
US20260417 70.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Sell
Open
0.30
3Lot(s)
--
Closed
Intel
$INTC 20260417 70.0 CALL$ Sold some calls on INTC at $70. Think the rise is overblown with range of good news and buoyant market last 2 weeks but t...
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6.40K
General
VNW Capital
·
04-15
$QQQM VERTICAL 260618 PUT 255.0/PUT 250.0$ Income play, with 64 days to expiration. Market breadth just started to broaden, likely to pocket this premium. 
QQQM Vertical
04-15 23:27
US255.0/250.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Credit
Open
-1.27
3
--
Holding
QQQM VERTICAL 260618 PUT 255.0/PUT 250.0
$QQQM VERTICAL 260618 PUT 255.0/PUT 250.0$ Income play, with 64 days to expiration. Market breadth just started to broaden, likely to pocket this p...
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6.39K
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CutieYolkYolk
·
04-15
$MSFT 20260417 380.0 PUT$ Take profit. Market really rallied up the last 2 weeks. This short put had for the longest time, was in losing zone as low as $356.28 until the spike up especially the last 3 days and moved to out of the monet just in time before expiry this Fri.  Happy to close as the rally had been fast and steep so any pull backs is a reasonable outcome in the coming days.
MSFT PUT
04-15 23:17
US20260417 380.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Buy
Close
0.14
1Lot(s)
+99.10%
Closed
Microsoft
$MSFT 20260417 380.0 PUT$ Take profit. Market really rallied up the last 2 weeks. This short put had for the longest time, was in losing zone as lo...
1
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10.38K
General
Shyon
·
04-16
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ I’l've been using this recent pullback as an opportunity to steadily add to my position in Palantir Technologies, rather than stepping aside. Volatility like this tends to shake out short-term traders, but it also creates pricing inefficiencies. For me, this isn't a signal to panic—it's a chance to lean into my conviction. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) helps me stay disciplined, especially when sentiment swings faster than fundamentals. One of the core reasons I continue to DCA is because Palantir's long-term narrative remains intact. The company sits right at the intersection of AI, data infrastructure, and government-commercial integration. While the market may be repricing high-multiple tech names in the sh
PLTR
04-16 01:44
USPalantir Technologies Inc.
SidePriceRealized P&L
Buy
Open
140.38+4.36%
Holding
Palantir Technologies Inc.
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ I’l've been using this recent pullback as an opportunity to steadily add to my position in Palantir Technologies...
TOPAvenite: Absolutely.. Every now and then rumors about another disruptive company would emerge just like the ‘Deepseek’ rumors. But look where it is now ✌️
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