To The Moon

Although last week brought important data, including the nonfarm payrolls report, and some market moves, the more significant development was a change in the foreign exchange market. We had previously believed that the dollar faced the risk of a substantial decline, against the backdrop of what we saw as the weakening U.S. military strength and overall national power demonstrated by its strikes on Iran. But with recent moves in the U.S. bond market proving increasingly difficult to control, there is now reason to suspect that maintaining the dollar’s relative strength would better serve the United States’ broader interests. From a technical perspective, the dollar may also be entering a new phase. The U.S. Dollar Index is an important reference point for assessing the dollar and the broade

Last week’s October nonfarm payrolls report came in below market expectations overall, providing a sharp contrast to September’s exceptionally strong reading. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market now puts the probability of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s October meeting below 30%. The probability of two hikes by December has also fallen from 60% to less than 20%, suggesting that the market is gradually coming around to a more moderate Fed rate-hike path. Attention will therefore shift back to U.S.–Iran talks and developments around the U.S. midterm elections. Financial markets may subsequently price in their expectations for the election outcome. If Trump’s Republican Party falls behind, pressure on the Fed to cut rates could ease, which may be unfavorable for rate-sensitiv

France is facing a major wave of domestic unrest driven by student-led protests across high schools and universities. The Beginning. The movement ignited in mid-September over systemic issues within the public education system. Students cited chronic teacher shortages, severely overcrowded classrooms, deteriorating infrastructure, and frustrations with overloaded academic schedules and university admissions platforms. What began as local walkouts and grievances in Paris rapidly metastasized into a nationwide youth mobilization via social media. The Escalation. By late September & early October, demonstrations evolved into systematic school blockades. Over 1,000 - 1,200 high schools and multiple major university campuses (including the Sorbonne and regional universities in Lyon, Rennes,