Non-Manufacturing PMI, jobs and unemployment - how will they fare in this week (06Jan2025)

KYHBKO
01-06

Public Holidays

There will be no public holidays in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, or America next week.

Economic Calendar (06Jan2025)

Notable Highlights

  • The forecast for the S&P Global Services PMI stands at 58.5 and expectation of growth compared to the previous month.

  • ISM non-manufacturing PMI will also be released with a forecast of 53.2. A number that is greater than 50 implies growth. The ISM non-manufacturing prices will also be released. These will reveal any inflationary pricing pressures faced by non-manufacturing businesses (services) sectors.

  • JOLT job openings will be updated. The forecast is 7.77 million job openings. We can see some updates or revisions to the previous months. In the same week, there will also be an update about ADP nonfarm employment change for December. This update reflects the number of employment changes involving nonfarm roles.

  • The average hourly earnings is expected to grow by 0.3%. This should be closely watched so that we can identify the gap between wage growth and inflation changes. Non-farm payrolls are expected to be a forecast of 154,000 and the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%. The Federal Reserve will adjust the interest rate based on this unemployment and job data together with GDP and inflation numbers.

  • The 30-year bond auction will also be finalized in the coming week with the previous rate standing at 4.535%. If the rate continues to increase, this implies that there is more demand for such asset classes, affecting the amount of liquidity that flows into others such as stocks and shares. Let us monitor the 10-year note option with the previous rate at 4.235%.

  • One of the news that can move the market with some volatility would be the FOMC meeting minutes. This will bring some suggestions about the coming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve.

  • Initial jobless claims will be announced. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data references as it balances inflation and employment in the economy.

  • Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. If the trend of excess inventories continues, demand erosion can lead to reduced production & weakening consumer spending.

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