TIGR’s Earnings Shock: A Retrospective on My Forecasts and a Reassessed $12 Target

As a content creator in the Tiger Community, I’m holding myself accountable with a retrospective review of my TIGR ( $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ ) analyses following the company’s jaw-dropping Q4 2024 earnings on March 18, 2025. UP Fintech Holding Ltd. (TIGR) smashed expectations with $124.1 million in revenue and $0.172 non-GAAP EPS, sending the stock to $8.895 (high $9.19) on the latest K-line chart. My pre-earnings forecasts fell short—why? Let’s dissect the surprise, compare my calls, and reassess TIGR’s price trajectory for 2025.

Retrospective: My Forecasts vs. Reality

My March 9, 2025, preview ("TIGR’s Q4 2024 Earnings Preview") predicted Q4 metrics based on Q3’s $101.1 million revenue and 105% trading volume growth. Here’s how I stacked up:

• Revenue: Forecasted $105-$110 million (+30%-37% YoY); actual $124.1 million (+77.3% YoY).

  Miss: Underestimated by $14.1-$19.1 million. Analysts’ $97 million consensus was further off by $27.1 million.

• EPS: Forecasted $0.10-$0.12; actual non-GAAP $0.172, GAAP $0.158.

  Miss: Off by $0.052-$0.072 (non-GAAP). My $16-$18 million net income projection missed the $28.1 million GAAP result.

• Trading Volume: Forecasted $70-$80 billion (+80%-100% YoY); actual implied above Q3’s $65.1 billion, likely $80-$90 billion.

  Close Call: My $90 billion upside was near, but exact data was elusive.

• Client Growth: Forecasted 40,000-50,000 new accounts; actual 59,200.

  Miss: Underestimated by 9,200-19,200; my 55,000 upside was closest.

My forecasts exceeded analyst consensus ($97 million revenue, $0.06 EPS), but both camps missed TIGR’s explosive upside. Deutsche Bank’s $9.40 target now looks low at $8.895, while Citi’s $5.80 was laughably off.

Why the Surprise? Unpacking TIGR’s Performance

TIGR’s outperformance stemmed from several underappreciated drivers:

1. Commission Surge: Revenue included $56 million in commissions (+154.9% YoY), dwarfing my 80%-100% volume growth assumption. Singapore’s retail trading boom and U.S. market rallies (S&P 500 ~5,600) fueled this, overlooked in my macro analysis.

2. Cost Efficiency: G&A expenses fell 11.8% yearly, and marketing rose only 64.2%, boosting net income 58% quarter over quarter to $28.1 million. I underestimated operational leverage.

3. Client Momentum: 59,200 new accounts (51.4% YoY) exceeded my 40,000-50,000 range, driven by Tiger BOSS Card promotions and Asia’s festive trading rush—data I didn’t fully weight.

4. Global Resilience: Despite tariffs (10% on China, 25% on Canada/Mexico), TIGR’s Singapore hub and cross-border model absorbed costs, a resilience I underplayed amid tariff noise.

These factors turned a solid Q4 into a blowout, catching analysts—myself included—off guard.

Technical Reassessment: Chart Insights

The daily K-line chart (March 18, 2025) tells the story:

• Price: $9.19 high, up 7.7% from ~$8.26 pre-earnings, signals bullish momentum.

• Moving Averages: 5-day EMA ($8.79) and 20-day EMA ($8.50) rise, with the 50-day MA ($7.62) as support. The 200-day MA ($6.80) crossover confirms strength.

• Bollinger Bands: $9.19 tested the upper band ($8.547), with RSI at 63.00 (near 70, overbought). A pullback to $8.50 is possible.

• Resistance/Support: $8.50 and $7.66 are supports. A break above $9.19 targets $9.50-$10.

Reassessed Price Targets

• Previous Base Case: $9.50 by August 2025 (+24% from $7.65).

  Adjustment: At $8.895, $10 by June 2025 (+12.4%) is realistic, given the earnings beat. A P/E of 18 (from 15) on $0.172 EPS supports this.

• Upside Case: $11-$12 by August 2025 (+23.8%-35% from $8.895).

  Rationale: If Q1 2025 hits $130 million in revenue (20% growth) and EPS nears $0.20, a P/E of 20 yields $12. Sustained volume ($90 billion+) and Fed cuts (two 25-bp by July) could drive it.

• Downside Risk: $8-$8.50 short-term (-10%-4.4%), $7.66 if profit-taking hits. $6 remains a floor if tariffs escalate.

• Volatility: 3-4% daily swings, with 5% spikes possible on news.

My previous forecasts erred by underweighting commissions, margins, and client growth—blinded by tariff fears and conservative seasonality. Analysts’ broader misses highlight TIGR’s undervaluation at a 15 P/E for 77% revenue growth.

The Tiger Take

TIGR’s $124.1 million revenue and $0.172 EPS shocked us all, driven by commissions, efficiency, and client wins. The chart’s $9.19 high and rising EMAs point to $10-$12 by mid-2025, but $8.50-$9 is the near-term range. What’s your next move?

@TigerWire