$JD.com(JD)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Baidu(BIDU)$ I’m rotating into JD as the harmonic structure points to $46 while consumer patterns favour smaller city retail flows.
JD.com climbing off its structural base
JD.com ($JD) is trading around $36.10 intraday after lifting from the September floor at 🔵 $32.91. Momentum is aligning with National Day data showing 54.2% of travellers shifting toward small-city destinations, reinforcing JD’s footprint in decentralised consumption. Offline retail is also expanding with 16,400 manufacturer reps embedded across 260+ stores, including JD MALL and JD Electrical Appliance City.
Free cash flow anchors the valuation
JD produced $6.05B in free cash flow in FY23 and is projected to reach 🟢 $9.27B by 2028. This underpins capital return potential and strengthens the long-term thesis. On the charts, 🔴 $37.50 is the wedge cap, 🔴 $41.50 is the long-term supply wall, and 🟠 $38 remains the ignition point for a confirmed breakout. Stretch targets sit at 🟢 $46 and 🟢 $48.
🟠 Breakout above $38 confirms momentum
🔵 $32.91 floor must hold
🟢 Upside path points to $46–48
Momentum and options flow support upside
Volume confirms that buyers are stepping in. Options positioning has tilted bullish, with October $38 calls seeing net inflows. The tape is clean on higher timeframes, with overlapping Bollinger and Keltner bands signalling tightening structure ahead of expansion.
🔴 $37.50 wedge cap repeatedly tested
🟠 $38 close unlocks upside
🟢 Long-term path to $46
Short-term trading map
• Base case 65%: 🟠 breakout above $38 drives to 🔴 $41.50 this month.
• Stretch case 25%: 🟢 harmonic extension completes at $46–48 by year-end.
• Risk case 10%: breakdown under 🔵 $32.91 reopens a retest of $30.50.
Macro tailwind: improved high-speed rail links and a surge in county-level tourism are boosting retail and logistics in lower-tier cities, where JD already holds distribution strength.
🟢 Long-term durability confirmed
🔵 Stable balance sheet foundation
🟠 Expansion building toward $38 ignition
🔵 Support band $34.50–35.00
🟢 Short-term target $41.50
🔵 $35.50 intraday support as risk line
🟠 Alert for breakout at $37
🟢 Scalp upside toward $38–39
I’m positioning JD as my preferred China consumer allocation, anchored by 🔵 $32.91 as the floor, 🟠 $38 as the ignition level for adds, and 🟢 $46–48 as the upside completion target into Q4.
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