📈🛍️🔮 JD.com harmonic setup eyes $46 as National Day catalysts shift flows from BABA 📈🛍️🔮

$JD.com(JD)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Baidu(BIDU)$ I’m rotating into JD as the harmonic structure points to $46 while consumer patterns favour smaller city retail flows.

JD.com climbing off its structural base

JD.com ($JD) is trading around $36.10 intraday after lifting from the September floor at 🔵 $32.91. Momentum is aligning with National Day data showing 54.2% of travellers shifting toward small-city destinations, reinforcing JD’s footprint in decentralised consumption. Offline retail is also expanding with 16,400 manufacturer reps embedded across 260+ stores, including JD MALL and JD Electrical Appliance City.

Free cash flow anchors the valuation

JD produced $6.05B in free cash flow in FY23 and is projected to reach 🟢 $9.27B by 2028. This underpins capital return potential and strengthens the long-term thesis. On the charts, 🔴 $37.50 is the wedge cap, 🔴 $41.50 is the long-term supply wall, and 🟠 $38 remains the ignition point for a confirmed breakout. Stretch targets sit at 🟢 $46 and 🟢 $48.

🟠 Breakout above $38 confirms momentum

🔵 $32.91 floor must hold

🟢 Upside path points to $46–48

Momentum and options flow support upside

Volume confirms that buyers are stepping in. Options positioning has tilted bullish, with October $38 calls seeing net inflows. The tape is clean on higher timeframes, with overlapping Bollinger and Keltner bands signalling tightening structure ahead of expansion.

🔴 $37.50 wedge cap repeatedly tested

🟠 $38 close unlocks upside

🟢 Long-term path to $46

Short-term trading map

• Base case 65%: 🟠 breakout above $38 drives to 🔴 $41.50 this month.

• Stretch case 25%: 🟢 harmonic extension completes at $46–48 by year-end.

• Risk case 10%: breakdown under 🔵 $32.91 reopens a retest of $30.50.

Macro tailwind: improved high-speed rail links and a surge in county-level tourism are boosting retail and logistics in lower-tier cities, where JD already holds distribution strength.

🟢 Long-term durability confirmed

🔵 Stable balance sheet foundation

🟠 Expansion building toward $38 ignition

🔵 Support band $34.50–35.00

🟢 Short-term target $41.50

🔵 $35.50 intraday support as risk line

🟠 Alert for breakout at $37

🟢 Scalp upside toward $38–39

I’m positioning JD as my preferred China consumer allocation, anchored by 🔵 $32.91 as the floor, 🟠 $38 as the ignition level for adds, and 🟢 $46–48 as the upside completion target into Q4.

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@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerPM @TigerObserver @1PC

ARK Back in China! Can Fresh Confidence Signal a New Cycle?

ARK’s first investment in Alibaba dates back to 2014, shortly after the company’s IPO. However, since September 2021, public filings have shown no record of ARK holding or voting in Alibaba — coinciding with China’s regulatory crackdown on the internet sector. This latest repurchase of Alibaba shares is therefore seen as a strong signal of ARK’s return to the Chinese tech sector. Recently, ARK has been gradually rebuilding its positions in Chinese tech names, having already repurchased Baidu earlier.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Cool Cat Winston
10-03
Cool Cat Winston
I like how you mapped the breakout ignition at $38 with those harmonic targets up near $46. The tourism data you pulled is sharp, it lines up with how $BABA caught that early retail flow. JD’s free cash flow climb is the real kicker here.
Hen Solo
10-03
Hen Solo
🍵That survey showing 54.2% opting for small city tourism really stood out to me. It connects with JD’s offline push in a way $TCEHY doesn’t fully capture yet. The $37.50 cap is the test I’m watching, because momentum above that could really accelerate.
Tui Jude
10-03
Tui Jude
🚄The high-speed rail expansion you highlighted makes JD’s logistics moat feel even stronger. Reminds me of how $PDD kept gaining in tier-3 cities. The $32.91 support you marked looks like the line that gives this trade structure real conviction.
Kiwi Tigress
10-03
Kiwi Tigress
That breakout map is fire, I love how you framed the blue floor at $32.91 as the anchor and green $46–48 as the payoff zone. Feels like momentum’s coiling up tight, and the consumer shift into small cities is the exact backdrop JD needs to rip
Queengirlypops
10-03
Queengirlypops
this JD setup legit makes sense, I’m looking at that orange $38 ignition like the green light for the whole move. The way you tied in free cash flow with those tourism stats is clean. If it clears that red wall, it’s straight to $46 easy 🧃