$NVDA$
The answer in the headline is: the lower bound has improved significantly, and the upper bound has nudged slightly higher to 187.5.
Due to the massive accumulation of open options positions in December and January, the next two months will primarily be characterized by range-bound trading—unless major positive catalysts emerge, like a breakthrough killer AI app that could lift the entire AI sector.
In the absence of such a game-changing product, the expectation is for NVDA to oscillate between $160 and $200 until the January 16th expiration. The January 16th 200 call has an open interest of 159k contracts, and the January 19th 200 call has 106k. Under these conditions, the stock is unlikely to trade above $200.
However, the positive news has significantly raised the strike prices for new put openings. Extreme hedging has decreased, and support levels have risen. Overall, I cautiously raise the expected trading range to $170–200.
Theoretically, the H200 export ban lift is a major positive. However, an additional 25% tariff partially offsets the benefit, likely contributing only about $0.20–$0.50 to EPS. Yet, I believe the real significance lies in reopening the imagination for the Chinese market and paving the way for future earnings forecasts.
$SPY$
Extreme hedging has notably decreased, lowering the probability of a flash crash. Maintaining Monday's view: the market is in a normal high-level pullback phase, oscillating between $680 and $685.
$NFLX$
Netflix's stock has plunged recently due to acquisition developments, and many are wondering if it's time to buy the dip. Looking at put openings, the current price appears attractive, with new puts concentrated at strikes of $90–$95, suggesting strong support near the 20-month moving average.
However, some bears remain pessimistic, targeting the 120-day moving average around $80, as seen with the opening of 3,000 contracts of the $NFLX 20260821 80.0 PUT$ , totaling ~$1.5M in premium.
Notably, there's an arbitrage opportunity with the other party in the acquisition, Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD$. Netflix's implied offer price is around $27.75 per share for WBD. Paramount has launched a counter-bid, offering $30 per share in cash.
Given both sides' apparent determination to complete a deal, selling the $WBD 20251219 27.0 PUT$ looks attractive, offering a 29% annualized return. The risk of getting assigned and holding the stock is mitigated, as it's likely to be acquired eventually.
A Brief Note:
I've noticed some new readers in the comments who might find the content hard to follow or question its value.
The issue, frankly, is the limitation of space and time—it's difficult to break down and explain every strategy in minute detail. Also, the effectiveness of this analysis is hard to convey in words alone. So, let's just share the performance.
For this year's market conditions, this return is fairly standard—not exceptionally high, but hopefully a decent reward for the daily effort of writing.
Let this serve as mutual encouragement for all of us diligently reviewing the markets day after day.
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